For more information, visit http://www.worldbank.org/prospects March 4, 2016 Taking Stock  U.S. nonfarm payrolls surged in February, while hourly earnings fell. The Labor Department reported on Friday that the U.S. economy added 242,000 nonfarm jobs in February, significantly more than expected. Nonfarm job growth in January was also revised upward by 21,000 to 172,000. The jobless rate held steady at 4.9 percent, in line with expectations, while the participation rate rose to its highest level in a year as more people entered the labor market. However, average hourly earnings fell 0.1 percent (m/m); this is the first monthly decline since December 2014 (Figure 1). On an annual basis, average hourly wages rose 2.2 percent in February, compared with January’s 2.5 percent (y/y) increase.  Euro Area inflation rate turned negative. Eurostat reported that consumer prices in the Euro Area fell 0.2 percent (y/y) in February, following a 0.3 percent (y/y) increase in January, inflation turning negative for the first time in five months. This larger-than-expected decline in the headline inflation rate was due to a sharp decrease in energy costs. However, core inflation, excluding energy and food, was also weak, at 0.7 percent (y/y), slowing from 1.0 percent in January.  Moody’s changed China’s credit outlook to negative. Moody’s Investors Service downgraded its outlook on Chinese government debt from “stable” to “negative”, citing uncertainty over the government’s ability to implement economic reforms, the high and rising stock of contingent sovereign liabilities, and falling foreign-exchange reserves. However, Moody’s retained its Aa3 rating, noting that the country’s sizeable foreign reserves give the authorities the time to implement reforms and gradually address imbalances in the economy.  Brazil’s GDP contracted 3.8 percent in 2015. According to the national statistics agency IBGE, Brazil’s GDP contracted by 3.8 percent in 2015, as the economy remained in recession through the fourth quarter. This contraction, the biggest since 1990 (Figure 2), reflected the combined effects of weak confidence, falling investment, lower commodity prices, and constrained government spending. Economic activity is expected to continue to contract in 2016.  Nigeria’s PMI declined further. The Nigerian manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 45.5 in February from 47.2 in January (a reading below 50 signals a contraction in the sector). The February decline, the second consecutive monthly contraction in factory activity, reflected declines in production, new orders and employment. Meanwhile, non-manufacturing or services PMI came in at 44.3 down from 46.9 in January, with 17 out of 18 non- manufacturing sub-sectors declining. FIGURE 1 U.S. Average hourly earnings fell for the first time since Figure 2 Brazil’s GDP contraction in 2015 was the biggest since December 2014. 1990. Average hourly earnings Annual GDP growth Percent change, m/m Percent 0.7 8 0.6 0.5 6 0.4 0.3 4 0.2 2 0.1 0 0 -0.1 -0.2 -2 -0.3 -4 -0.4 -6 Dec-14 Feb-15 Jun-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 Feb-16 Apr-15 Aug-15 2011 2013 2015 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 Source: Bloomberg. Source: World Bank. Produced by DECPG (Eung Ju Kim). Number 295 | March 4, 2016 Weekly Insight: The Main Features of the Trans-Pacific Partnership The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) will expand mutual market access among member countries by lowering tariffs and easing the restrictiveness of non-tariff measures. In addition, the TPP will facilitate supply chain integration by encouraging greater regional coherence in standards and regulations. The currently negotiated TPP would over time eliminate nearly all tariffs and lower trade barriers associated with sizeable non-tariff measures (NTMs) in member countries. Partly due to the general decline in worldwide tariffs, but also because of the proliferation of free trade agreements among TPP member countries, average tariffs among TPP member countries have more than halved since 1996 (Figure 3). These averages, however, hide some high tariff barriers on individual goods. Product lines with average tariffs exceeding 15 percent – “dubbed international peaks” – sometimes protect key domestic interests or industries. Restrictions caused by NTMs, measured as ad valorem tariff equivalents, appear to be less prevalent among TPP member countries than elsewhere. TPP member countries have a higher incidence of only moderately restrictive NTMs (from zero to 10 percent) and a lower incidence of highly restrictive NTMs (greater than 100 percent) than other countries. Within the TPP group, NTMs are more restrictive in Asia than in North America and Latin America. In addition to promoting comprehensive market access by reducing tariffs and the restrictiveness of NTMs, the TPP seeks to facilitate the development of supply chains among its members . Supply chain integration has deepened rapidly since 1995, raising the share of foreign value added in TPP member countries’ ex ports (Figure 4). TPP member countries’ share of foreign value added in export ranges from 15 percent in advanced countries such as the United States, Australia and Japan, to 40 percent in Singapore and Malaysia. Supply chains involve the close coordination of production decisions among different locations. They depend on rapid and reliable ways for shipping goods, making investments, and transferring information. Attracting supply chains to an economy requires good physical connectivity through ports, roads and telecommunications – along with policies that facilitate trade in intermediate products and services, as well as foreign investment. Research suggests that liberal service sector rules are especially important, since high-quality logistics, transportation, financial and consulting services help to support supply chain integration. The TPP also includes social and environmental provisions that may impact trade and production chains . The TPP seeks to incorporate International Labor Organization (ILO) obligations, requires domestic laws to be consistent with international standards, and provides for enforcement. Environmental standards in the agreement address illegal wildlife trafficking, logging and fishing. They also include provisions on conservation, biodiversity, protecting the ozone layer and environmental goods and services. The harmonization of labor and environmental standards within the TPP could have important implications for participating developing countries, such as Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, and Vietnam. While such harmonization, which goes beyond product standards to encompass production process standards, has social and environmental benefits, it may also affect the competitiveness of firms in countries that currently do not meet such standards. FIGURE 3 Average tariffs among TPP member countries have more Figure 4 Supply chain integration has boosted the share of foreign than halved since 1996. value added in TPP member countries’ exports. Intra-TPP tariffs Foreign value added share of exports Percent Percent 1995 2011 7 50 6 40 5 30 4 20 3 10 2 0 Australia Singapore Malaysia Vietnam Chile New Zealand Mexico Canada United States Japan Brunei 1 0 1996 2010 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2012 2014 Source: Kee et al. (2009). “Estimating Trade Restrictiveness Indices.” Source: International Trade Center MACMAP database. The Economic Journal 119 (1). TPP member countries are: Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, United States, and Vietnam. Produced by DECPG Number 295 | March 4, 2016 Major Data Releases Fri, 26 Feb - Thu, 3 Mar 2016 Fri, 4 Mar - Thu, 10 Mar 2016 Country Date Indicator Period Actual Forecast Previous Country Date Indicator Period Previous Japan 2/28/16 Industrial Production (Y-o-Y) JAN -3.8 % -3 % -1.9% Denmark 3/7/16 Industrial Production (Y-o-Y) JAN -0.9 % Greece 2/29/16 GDP (Q-o-Q) Q4 0.1 % -0.6 % -1.2% Japan 3/7/16 GDP (Y-o-Y) Q4 -1.4 % South Korea 3/2/16 CPI (Y-o-Y) FEB 1.3 % 1% 0.8 % Germany 3/8/16 Industrial Production (Y-o-Y) JAN -2.3 % Turkey 3/3/16 CPI (Y-o-Y) FEB 8.8% 9.4 % 9.6% UK 3/9/16 Industrial Production (Y-o-Y) JAN -0.4 % Brazil 3/3/16 GDP (Q-o-Q) Q4 -1.4 % -2.1 % -1.7 % Brazil 3/9/16 CPI (Y-o-Y) FEB 10.71 % Eurozone 3/3/16 Retail Sales (Y-o-Y) JAN 2.0 % 1.3% 2.1% United States 3/9/16 Wholesale Sales (Y-o-Y) JAN -4.5 % Economic Developments indicators expressed as %ch y/y, except Industrial Production quarterly figures are %ch q/q, annualized 2014 2015 2014 2015 2012 2013 2014 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Industrial Production, S.A. World 2.9 2.5 3.3 2.2 2.4 4.0 1.7 1.2 1.6 1.1 2.5 3.3 3.0 2.8 3.3 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.1 2.6 2.1 2.5 1.8 2.2 1.5 0.6 - High Income Countries 0.6 0.3 2.0 0.3 0.5 3.1 2.1 -1.5 0.4 -1.2 1.0 1.5 1.6 1.3 1.9 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.1 0.8 1.2 0.9 1.2 0.9 1.0 0.2 -1.4 - Developing Countries 6.8 5.9 5.2 4.9 5.2 5.3 1.1 5.2 3.4 4.1 4.8 5.9 5.0 5.0 5.4 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.9 4.6 3.7 4.3 3.2 3.8 3.2 3.3 - East Asia and Pacific 9.3 9.0 7.5 7.7 6.4 8.3 2.2 6.7 4.9 8.0 6.5 7.5 7.0 6.4 7.3 6.5 6.1 5.8 5.9 5.5 6.2 5.6 5.8 5.1 5.2 5.8 5.2 - East Asia x. China 6.0 5.6 2.9 7.0 3.9 8.3 -1.6 3.0 3.5 7.1 3.3 5.4 3.9 2.9 4.9 4.3 2.2 6.5 5.1 1.9 3.1 4.0 3.8 2.0 3.4 3.7 1.8 - Europe and Central Asia 9.7 2.3 3.4 0.3 1.8 -0.4 1.6 5.8 3.2 6.2 2.4 2.8 2.8 2.0 1.4 -0.9 1.2 2.1 1.5 1.3 3.7 0.8 4.0 2.8 3.7 3.9 4.9 - Latin America and Caribbean -0.3 1.2 -0.3 -3.4 -0.3 -1.6 -4.7 -4.2 -5.1 -6.8 -0.5 -0.9 -0.4 -1.6 -1.0 -2.3 -2.6 -2.7 -2.8 -3.2 -2.0 -3.5 -3.8 -4.4 -5.1 -5.5 -5.1 - Middle East and N. Africa 6.0 -7.7 -1.4 0.1 27.4 1.1 -17.8 12.2 9.4 - 9.2 17.6 11.0 13.4 7.7 -0.6 -0.6 5.7 4.4 6.8 2.0 1.3 1.4 -1.2 - - - - South Asia 1.1 1.8 2.6 4.9 0.7 -1.2 11.9 8.0 2.3 -11.7 2.0 3.5 -1.5 5.9 4.4 3.4 5.1 3.4 4.3 4.3 5.6 4.2 7.7 3.6 10.3 -2.5 -0.5 - Sub-Saharan Africa 2.8 0.7 -0.1 2.9 -6.6 9.3 -1.4 -4.1 5.4 -3.5 -0.6 5.9 1.3 -0.5 0.5 -1.1 0.1 3.8 -1.7 -0.3 -0.6 5.3 0.8 0.6 -0.8 -1.9 -0.2 - Inflation, S.A. 1 High Income Countries 2.0 1.5 1.6 2.0 1.7 1.4 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.2 0.9 1.0 1.1 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.3 Developing Countries 5.2 5.0 4.5 4.8 4.6 4.1 4.1 4.3 4.3 4.6 4.7 4.4 4.2 4.0 4.1 3.8 4.1 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.6 4.8 5.1 East Asia and Pacific 2.9 3.0 2.6 2.9 2.5 2.2 1.9 2.0 2.2 1.8 2.5 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 1.6 2.0 2.0 2.2 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.4 2.0 1.7 1.8 1.8 2.1 Europe and Central Asia 9.9 7.2 7.5 7.7 8.0 7.7 6.7 6.4 5.8 7.2 8.1 7.9 8.0 8.0 7.2 6.6 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 5.9 5.5 5.7 6.2 6.5 7.2 7.9 8.5 Latin America and Caribbean 4.8 5.1 5.1 4.9 5.3 5.3 5.8 6.4 6.9 7.5 5.3 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.4 5.7 6.2 6.1 6.3 6.6 6.9 6.9 6.9 7.2 7.5 7.8 8.0 Middle East and N. Africa 6.6 5.3 5.0 3.9 5.7 5.8 5.1 5.8 4.5 4.8 5.8 5.8 6.2 5.8 5.4 4.7 5.2 5.5 5.5 6.4 5.5 4.4 4.3 5.0 4.6 4.7 5.3 - South Asia 9.2 9.4 6.6 7.8 6.7 4.2 5.0 4.8 3.7 5.0 6.9 5.8 4.8 3.5 4.4 5.1 5.1 4.9 4.6 4.8 5.1 3.5 3.6 4.1 4.6 5.1 5.3 5.4 Sub-Saharan Africa 8.6 6.6 6.4 6.6 6.6 6.2 5.9 6.4 6.8 7.5 6.7 6.4 6.3 6.2 6.1 5.9 5.9 5.9 6.2 6.3 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.9 7.2 7.5 7.9 8.6 1 Inflation is calculated as the GDP-weighted average for all groups. Trade and Finance indicators expressed as %ch y/y, except International Reserves are %ch p/p and trade quarterly figures are %ch q/q, annualized 2014 2015 2014 2015 2012 2013 2014 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Exports, Nominal, US$, S.A. World 0.1 2.0 1.1 3.9 1.1 -15.0 -25.8 -3.3 -5.5 -7.6 1.1 2.7 -1.2 -4.1 -3.6 -10.3 -6.4 -12.6 -13.2 -13.1 -7.8 -13.2 -13.3 -12.1 -12.6 -11.0 -9.5 - High Income Countries -1.5 1.5 0.7 1.1 -2.9 -17.9 -26.6 -2.2 -7.2 -8.5 -0.1 0.8 -3.2 -5.9 -5.1 -11.7 -12.5 -12.6 -14.7 -14.8 -9.5 -14.3 -14.8 -12.9 -13.2 -10.9 -10.7 - Developing Countries 4.1 3.2 1.9 10.6 10.8 -8.5 -24.0 -5.7 -1.7 -5.7 3.7 7.0 3.5 0.0 -0.2 -7.1 8.4 -12.4 -9.8 -9.1 -4.0 -10.7 -10.0 -10.4 -11.2 -11.0 -6.8 - East Asia and Pacific 6.2 6.4 4.6 18.9 17.4 -1.5 -15.3 -11.1 3.3 -1.9 8.2 12.5 7.9 3.3 5.2 -3.5 29.5 -11.5 -6.5 -4.3 0.7 -7.7 -6.2 -5.4 -7.9 -7.7 -4.0 -12.3 Europe and Central Asia 3.2 -0.3 -1.5 -7.9 -11.2 -27.8 -16.8 -15.4 -9.5 -15.5 -4.6 -2.4 -6.1 -10.7 -14.1 -13.8 -16.5 -18.6 -16.7 -21.5 -15.9 -21.2 -16.7 -14.9 -14.4 -15.6 -12.9 - Latin America and Caribbean 2.5 0.6 0.0 7.3 1.9 -21.9 -18.3 -4.2 -9.4 -8.2 0.6 1.1 -3.5 -7.5 -6.0 -7.9 -12.3 -5.5 -11.9 -14.5 -7.1 -11.2 -16.0 -14.1 -10.8 -11.0 -8.8 - Middle East and N. Africa 5.0 -11.1 -7.4 -1.6 26.0 -11.2 -59.9 - - - -1.7 2.0 16.5 -3.4 -10.0 -15.4 -21.8 -18.1 -11.1 - - - - - - - - - South Asia -1.8 6.2 2.6 8.7 1.7 -1.7 -45.6 4.0 -9.0 -12.4 0.9 0.2 -6.2 9.5 -1.0 -7.4 -12.4 -17.2 -12.8 -16.8 -10.0 -10.2 -13.2 -23.2 -14.7 -25.0 -13.6 -12.5 Sub-Saharan Africa -2.4 -1.1 -5.5 -12.7 -0.4 -18.9 -53.7 12.1 -21.9 - -10.0 -2.0 -7.6 -7.5 -8.8 -25.4 -28.7 -18.8 -23.4 -15.34 -19.8 -23.2 -21.3 -28.3 - - - - Imports, Nominal, US$, S.A. World 0.6 1.5 1.2 -1.5 -0.8 -15.3 -29.3 -2.7 -4.5 -7.6 0.9 3.8 -2.1 -4.1 -3.5 -13.3 -12.9 -11.4 -14.2 -15.2 -9.0 -13.1 -12.6 -15.2 -13.2 -10.4 -11.5 - High Income Countries -1.0 0.5 1.8 0.3 -4.3 -17.3 -27.2 -2.7 -3.7 -8.5 0.7 2.3 -3.4 -5.2 -4.0 -13.1 -13.0 -12.4 -14.9 -15.2 -10.2 -14.5 -12.0 -13.4 -11.9 -9.6 -11.8 - Developing Countries 4.9 4.1 -0.1 -5.8 7.9 -10.5 -33.8 -3.0 -6.4 -5.6 1.3 7.3 0.8 -1.4 -2.6 -13.7 -12.8 -9.0 -12.5 -15.3 -6.0 -9.5 -13.8 -19.3 -16.4 -12.3 -10.8 - East Asia and Pacific 5.6 6.1 -0.4 -12.5 9.4 -12.5 -37.1 1.1 -3.3 -1.5 -0.3 6.7 2.6 -5.3 -4.6 -17.4 -16.9 -9.5 -14.0 -15.7 -5.3 -9.0 -14.2 -19.5 -18.1 -8.5 -8.3 - Europe and Central Asia 0.7 2.5 -6.2 -8.1 -7.9 -9.7 -28.1 -19.8 -15.2 1.3 -4.7 -5.5 -8.3 -9.4 -10.6 -15.4 -13.5 -12.7 -17.5 -18.4 -14.3 -15.0 -17.7 -22.6 -14.5 -18.4 -15.4 - Latin America and Caribbean 3.8 3.8 1.7 2.0 3.5 -6.7 -17.1 -15.9 -6.4 -15.7 1.7 8.8 -3.1 2.5 4.7 -7.2 -7.0 -0.4 -10.5 -14.2 -3.4 -9.6 -12.0 -13.3 -13.0 -11.5 -16.9 - Middle East and N. Africa 10.8 4.0 1.4 -6.5 11.9 -17.7 -23.3 - - - 10.3 5.1 -1.6 -4.3 -2.2 -11.1 -7.0 -11.3 -7.5 - - - - - - - - - South Asia 4.0 -3.7 1.2 7.5 29.3 -10.1 -53.7 22.4 1.5 -15.9 5.0 23.7 6.8 21.9 -1.8 -12.2 -13.3 -12.8 -7.4 -11.9 -10.3 -9.1 -11.3 -24.1 -18.4 -25.4 -3.9 - Sub-Saharan Africa 3.8 5.9 5.0 18.1 -1.9 3.2 -26.9 - - - 6.9 9.0 4.5 3.1 7.8 -1.9 1.9 -9.9 -10.7 - - - - - - - - - International Reserves, US$ High Income Countries 9.2 3.2 -1.9 0.7 -1.9 -1.5 -0.4 0.4 0.0 -1.6 -0.1 -1.4 -0.7 0.1 -0.8 0.3 -0.1 -0.6 0.8 -0.3 -0.1 -0.6 0.2 0.4 -0.5 -1.2 0.2 - Developing Countries 5.5 8.7 -0.2 1.5 -1.9 -1.7 -2.5 -0.1 -4.0 -3.5 0.0 -1.7 -0.7 -0.2 -0.8 -0.7 -0.2 -1.6 0.7 -0.6 -0.2 -1.0 -1.8 -1.3 0.3 -2.0 -1.8 -2.2 East Asia and Pacific 4.5 12.2 0.2 1.2 -2.5 -1.4 -2.8 -0.8 -4.9 -4.4 0.1 -2.1 -0.8 -0.3 -0.4 -0.8 -0.2 -1.9 0.6 -0.9 -0.4 -1.3 -2.4 -1.2 0.4 -2.3 -2.6 -2.7 Europe and Central Asia 11.4 3.5 -8.2 4.2 -0.5 -7.2 -6.2 1.0 1.3 -4.4 1.4 -1.4 -1.5 -1.1 -4.7 -1.7 -2.8 -1.9 0.9 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 -0.8 0.0 -1.5 -3.0 - Latin America and Caribbean 9.9 1.8 3.6 3.3 1.5 -1.8 -0.1 0.7 -3.2 -1.3 0.1 0.2 -0.1 0.4 -2.2 0.4 -0.6 0.0 0.7 -0.1 0.1 -0.4 -0.8 -2.0 -0.8 -1.3 0.8 -0.2 Middle East and N. Africa 5.9 3.0 -10.2 -2.2 -3.8 -2.8 -6.0 1.6 - - -1.1 -2.3 -0.3 0.3 -2.9 -3.3 -0.4 -2.3 1.7 -0.64 0.2 - - - - - - - South Asia 0.4 -0.2 11.3 5.6 -0.6 2.1 5.9 4.7 -0.8 0.9 -0.4 -1.4 0.5 -0.3 1.9 1.8 3.2 0.8 1.5 1.7 1.5 -0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.9 -0.4 0.7 -0.9 Produced by DECPG (Anh Mai Bui). Number 295 | March 4, 2016 Financial Markets 1 2015 2015 2016 MRV 2014 2015 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Interest rates and LIBOR (%) U.S. Fed Funds Effective 0.09 0.13 0.11 0.13 0.14 0.16 0.11 0.11 0.12 0.12 0.13 0.13 0.15 0.14 0.12 0.12 0.24 0.36 0.37 0.37 ECB repo 0.16 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 … … 0.05 US$ LIBOR 3-months 0.23 0.32 0.26 0.28 0.31 0.41 0.26 0.27 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.29 0.32 0.33 0.32 0.37 0.54 0.62 0.62 0.64 EURIBOR 3-months 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 US 10-yr Treasury yield 2.53 2.12 1.97 2.15 2.20 2.18 1.98 2.04 1.92 2.19 2.35 2.32 2.14 2.14 2.04 2.26 2.23 2.11 1.77 1.83 German Bund, 10 yr 1.24 0.54 0.35 0.53 0.70 0.56 0.35 0.26 0.16 0.58 0.83 0.76 0.66 0.68 0.55 0.55 0.59 0.51 0.23 0.17 Spreads (basis points) JP Morgan Emerging Markets 330 417 425 380 423 431 420 411 388 369 384 397 397 442 437 413 446 446 446 483 Asia 206 227 219 201 233 245 215 208 206 195 203 212 212 250 246 235 255 255 255 275 Europe 287 340 399 336 345 311 396 384 350 327 330 328 328 347 332 294 310 310 310 348 Latin America & Caribbean 407 546 537 487 560 577 531 521 488 471 504 527 527 585 582 553 600 600 600 639 Middle East 388 462 449 420 447 506 452 443 441 409 410 420 420 479 502 503 512 512 512 570 Africa 323 433 373 355 425 509 364 371 361 345 358 374 374 472 490 482 563 563 563 626 Stock Indices (end of period) 2 Global (MSCI) 417 399 425 424 382 399 432 425 436 435 424 427 403 382 411 407 399 375 372 385 High-Income ($ Index) 1710 1663 1741 1736 1582 1663 1773 1741 1778 1779 1736 1766 1659 1582 1706 1694 1663 1562 1547 1598 United States (S&P-500) 2059 2044 2068 2063 1920 2044 2105 2068 2086 2107 2063 2104 1992 1920 2079 2080 2044 1940 1932 1993 Euro Area (S&P-350$) 1401 1474 1624 1552 1405 1474 1603 1624 1618 1630 1552 1614 1478 1405 1523 1558 1474 1381 1347 1371 Japan (Nikkei-225) 16292 16292 19207 20236 17388 .. 18798 19207 19520 20563 20236 20585 18812 17388 19083 19921 .. 17518 15989 16936 Developing Markets (MSCI) 956 794 975 972 792 794 990 975 1048 1004 972 902 882 792 848 814 794 742 740 780 EM Asia 457 404 481 475 391 404 479 481 514 499 475 440 433 391 422 408 404 374 369 387 EM Europe 297 244 302 311 259 244 313 302 338 320 311 293 285 259 273 263 244 237 241 251 EM Europe & Middle East 257 211 258 266 226 211 269 258 286 271 266 253 246 226 235 222 211 202 208 216 EM Latin America & Caribbean 2728 1830 2451 2517 1895 1830 2654 2451 2693 2496 2517 2305 2206 1895 2007 1919 1830 1744 1804 1962 Exchange Rates (LCU / USD) High Income Euro Area 0.75 0.90 0.89 0.90 0.90 0.91 0.88 0.92 0.92 0.90 0.9 0.91 0.89 0.89 0.89 0.93 0.92 0.92 0.90 0.91 Japan 105.89 121.00 119.16 121.38 122.06 121.41 118.78 120.37 119.53 120.87 123.7 123.39 122.71 120.10 120.01 122.61 121.6 118.4 114.4 113.50 Developing Brazil 2.35 3.33 2.87 3.07 3.55 3.84 2.82 3.15 3.04 3.06 3.1 3.23 3.53 3.89 3.88 3.78 3.87 4.06 3.97 3.80 China 6.16 6.29 6.24 6.20 6.31 6.39 6.25 6.24 6.20 6.20 6.2 6.21 6.34 6.38 6.35 6.37 6.45 6.57 6.55 6.54 Egypt 7.08 7.70 7.49 7.61 7.82 7.88 7.59 7.60 7.60 7.62 7.6 7.81 7.83 7.83 7.91 7.91 7.83 7.83 7.82 7.82 India 61.03 64.14 62.24 63.43 64.97 65.91 62.06 62.48 62.69 63.76 63.8 63.65 65.09 66.16 65.04 66.15 66.54 67.31 68.22 67.34 Russia 38.58 61.34 62.87 52.69 63.62 66.17 64.16 60.13 52.82 50.65 54.6 57.53 66.23 67.10 63.31 65.01 70.19 77.36 77.23 73.14 South Africa 10.85 12.77 11.74 12.08 13.03 14.22 11.58 12.08 11.99 11.97 12.3 12.46 12.94 13.67 13.48 14.14 15.04 16.30 15.79 15.62 Memo: USA nominal effective rate 110.58 .. 120.07 121.87 125.85 .. 119.99 122.10 121.76 121.40 122.4 123.89 126.13 127.52 126.92 128.15 … .. .. 131.55 1 MRV = Most Recent Value. 2 MSCI Indices for Asia, Africa, and Europe and C. Asia, for 2008 are calculated from February-December, due to data availability. 3 Change expressed in levels for interest rates and spreads; percent change for stock market and exchange rates. Commodity Prices 2015 2015 2016 MRV 2014 2015 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb 1 Oil price, $/b, nominal 96 51 52 60 48 42 55 53 57 63 61 54 45 46 47 43 37 30 31 34 Non - Oil Index 2 75 62 66 64 60 61 66 65 64 65 63 63 59 58 59 56 56 54 … 59 3 Metals and Minerals Index 88 68 74 74 65 60 74 73 73 76 72 67 64 65 64 59 57 56 59 61 Baltic Dry Index 4 1103 711 614 629 975 627 539 576 591 596 699 975 1061 889 790 582 510 391 307 342 1 Simple average of Brent, Dubai and WTI. 2 Base Date = Jan 3, 2011 due to data availability. The Index component combination in the Weekly tables differs from that of the Pink 3 Base Date = Jan 4, 2010 due to data availability. The Index component combination in the Weekly tables differs from that of the Pink 4 Base Date = May 1, 1985 Produced by DECPG (Anh Mai Bui). Number 295 | March 4, 2016