Global Monthly September 2018 • • • • Percent • 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 YTD -50 Since April 15 • -60 Russia Sri Lanka Argentina Brazil India Chile Pakistan Indonesia Turkey South Africa • • • • September 2018 Percent, 3m-on-3m saar, Total Capital goods 9 Intermediate goods 6 3 0 -3 -6 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-16 Apr-16 Oct-16 Apr-17 Oct-17 Apr-18 Percent, Container shipping Index, 3m-on-3m Export orders (RHS) 50+=expansion 12 56 8 54 4 52 0 50 -4 48 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Apr-18 Aug-18 Index, 3-month moving average 400 Global policy uncertainty 350 U.S. trade uncertainty 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2008 2010 2006 2012 2014 2016 2018 2 September 2018 Percent Index, 100=Jan-97 Long-term yield 4.0 130 Effective exchange rate (RHS) 3.5 120 3.0 110 2.5 2.0 100 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Apr-17 Oct-17 Apr-18 Jul-18 US$, billions 100 80 60 40 20 0 2014-17 2017 2018 average Mb/d 0.2 Russia Saudi Arabia 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 Apr-18 Apr-17 Jun-18 Oct-16 Dec-16 Jun-17 Feb-17 Oct-17 Aug-17 Dec-17 Feb-18 Aug-18 3 September 2018 Percent of GDP Percent of GDP 9 45 8 7 40 6 35 5 4 Corporate tax revenues 30 3 Total tax revenues (RHS) 2 25 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Euro, billions Euro, trillions 100 Net monthly purchases 50 Total assets (RHS) 80 40 60 40 30 20 0 20 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16 Dec-17 Jun-18 Dec-18 Jun-17 Index, 50+=expansion 52 52 51 51 50 50 49 Q2 2015 Q4 2015 Q2 2016 Q4 2016 Q2 2017 Q4 2017 Jun-18 Apr-18 Feb-18 Aug-18 4 September 2018 Index, 100=Jan. 1, 2018 Basis points 160 ARG currency 600 TUR currency 450 140 ARG spreads (RHS) TUR spreads (RHS) 300 120 150 100 0 80 -150 -300 60 -450 40 -600 Jan-18 Mar-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 May-18 Percent Aug-18 Jan-18 6 4 2 0 Brazil Russia Chile Indonesia South Arabia Africa Saudi Percent United States (RHS) Percent EMDE exporters 12 EMDE importers 2 10 8 1 6 4 0 2018 2014 2015 2016 2017 5 6 0 20 40 60 30 60 90 0 150 180 120 20 40 60 80 0 100 120 140 160 Percent 1967 Oil Aluminum 1972 US$ 100=2010 Nickel 1977 Nat. Gas 1982 Zinc Percent of world total 1987 Coal Copper Metals Energy 1992 GDP Agriculture 1997 Aluminum Coal 2016 2002 Natural gas Copper 2007 Crude oil 1996 2012 Zinc Population 2017 September 2018 September 2018 Tonnes of oil equivalent per capita 2.0 1.5 1.0 G7 0.5 China Korea, Rep. 0.0 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 GDP per capita Kg per capita 20 G7 China 15 Korea, Rep. 10 5 0 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 GDP per capita Percent Forecast 2010-2016 5 4 3 2 1 0 Metals Energy 7 September 2018 (Percent change, y/y) (Percent change y/y) South Africa 8/22/18 CPI JUL 5.1 % 4.6 % Canada 9/21/18 CPI AUG 3.0 % Japan 8/23/18 CPI JUL 0.9 % 1% 0.7 % Germany 9/27/18 CPI SEP 2.0 % Mexico 8/24/18 GDP Q2 2.6 % 1.4% Japan 9/27/18 IP AUG 2.2 % France 8/29/18 GDP Q2 1.7% 2.1% United States 9/27/18 GDP Q2 2.9% United States 8/29/18 GDP Q2 2.9 % 2.6% UK 9/28/18 GDP Q2 1.3% Italy 8/31/18 GDP Q2 1.2 % 1.4% Indonesia 10/1/18 CPI SEP 3.2 % Brazil 8/31/18 GDP Q2 1.0 % 1.2 % South Korea 10/1/18 IP AUG 1.0% Indonesia 9/3/18 CPI AUG 3.2 % 3.2 % 3.2% Italy 10/3/18 GDP Q3 1.2 % Turkey 9/3/18 CPI AUG 17.9% 21.5 % 15.8% Turkey 10/3/18 CPI SEP 17.9% South Korea 9/3/18 GDP Q2 2.8 % 2.9 % 2.8 % Brazil 10/5/18 CPI SEP 4.2% South Africa 9/4/18 GDP Q2 0.4 % 0.8 % Germany 10/8/18 IP AUG 1.1 % Australia 9/4/18 GDP Q2 3.4 % 3.2% Mexico 10/9/18 CPI SEP 4.9% Euro Area 9/7/18 GDP Q2 2.1 % 2.4% UK 10/10/18 IP AUG 1.0% Japan 9/9/18 GDP Q2 1.3% 1.1% France 10/11/18 CPI SEP 2.3 % China 9/9/18 CPI AUG 2.1% 1.7% Euro Area 10/12/18 IP AUG -0.1 % France 9/13/18 CPI AUG 2.3 % 2.3 % 2.3 % Germany 10/12/18 CPI SEP 2.0 % United States 9/13/18 CPI AUG 2.7 % 2.9 % India 10/12/18 IP AUG 6.6 % Italy 9/14/18 CPI AUG 1.6 % 1.7 % Mexico 10/12/18 IP AUG 1.2 % Euro Area 9/17/18 CPI AUG 2.0 % 2% 2.1 % China 10/15/18 CPI SEP 2.1% South Africa 9/19/18 CPI AUG 4.9% 5.2% China 10/15/18 GDP Q3 6.7 % UK 9/19/18 CPI AUG 2.7 % 2.4 % 2.5 % Euro Area 10/17/18 CPI SEP 2.0 % 8 September 2018 (Percent change y/y, except quarterly data on industrial production, which are percent change q/q, annualized) 2.1 4.0 3.8 5.5 3.9 2.9 4.4 4.3 4.1 4.4 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.3 4.4 4.0 3.7 3.7 0.0 2.8 2.4 5.2 -0.2 2.7 3.2 3.0 3.1 3.5 3.6 2.7 3.0 3.2 2.5 2.6 2.4 1.9 4.2 5.2 5.3 5.7 8.2 3.1 5.6 5.7 5.1 5.4 5.5 6.6 6.4 5.3 6.3 5.3 5.0 5.6 0.6 2.6 4.7 0.9 5.9 0.4 3.7 3.7 2.9 2.5 2.2 3.9 3.3 3.3 5.0 1.7 2.2 4.3 5.3 6.0 5.4 7.0 8.8 3.7 6.1 6.2 5.7 6.2 6.5 7.3 7.3 5.9 6.7 6.3 5.8 5.9 5.9 6.1 5.0 5.4 10.3 4.8 5.8 6.4 5.8 5.7 5.8 7.2 7.1 5.7 7.1 6.7 5.4 6.3 4.6 3.7 7.8 -0.1 15.6 -1.7 4.4 5.2 2.7 3.0 2.9 7.5 6.0 3.8 7.6 5.9 2.1 7.5 3.4 5.9 5.8 6.0 7.1 1.8 7.8 7.9 5.9 5.8 6.4 7.8 7.5 5.9 5.8 5.4 4.4 5.7 -2.2 0.7 3.7 2.4 3.5 -1.5 1.4 0.8 1.7 1.5 2.0 1.5 1.9 3.0 4.4 -1.4 3.0 2.2 -1.1 5.4 21.3 1.9 -8.7 4.5 7.7 2.2 6.1 7.1 8.6 2.2 2.6 5.0 2.5 3.1 7.0 3.7 5.3 4.7 7.2 12.5 4.9 -2.4 6.5 4.7 3.7 8.9 7.6 8.2 7.3 5.6 5.6 4.6 6.1 5.7 1.2 0.1 2.9 8.1 -7.4 0.2 1.3 -1.0 2.0 2.3 3.2 1.7 1.0 1.2 -1.2 1.7 2.0 2.6 1.5 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.1 2.4 2.4 0.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.8 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.9 2.1 2.1 2.7 3.2 2.9 2.8 3.0 2.7 3.0 3.2 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1 2.7 2.6 2.8 3.0 2.9 3.5 3.5 3.3 2.8 2.9 2.5 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.5 1.3 2.9 2.7 2.8 3.7 3.2 2.6 3.0 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.7 3.5 3.1 3.2 3.0 3.2 3.5 2.1 2.9 1.9 2.7 2.5 3.0 2.5 2.5 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.9 2.6 2.5 0.4 2.4 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.2 2.7 2.8 2.6 2.8 2.8 2.5 2.7 2.5 2.2 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.9 3.1 2.4 2.6 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.9 2.9 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.1 2.1 1.6 1.1 2.2 2.8 2.7 1.1 1.6 2.1 1.7 1.9 2.9 2.9 2.6 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.2 4.4 3.8 3.5 3.7 4.2 4.6 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.8 4.3 4.4 4.1 3.7 4.1 4.9 5.2 5.6 5.3 5.7 5.5 4.7 3.5 3.3 5.4 5.4 5.2 4.6 4.6 4.3 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.1 3.0 (Percent change y/y, except quarterly trade data, which are percent change q/q, annualized, and international reserves data, which are percent change over the previous period) -3.0 10.3 14.5 14.6 14.6 24.3 11.0 11.1 12.4 13.2 11.7 17.0 16.8 9.2 16.3 10.6 10.2 12.0 -0.8 9.5 18.2 11.3 11.3 22.0 10.8 10.9 12.0 12.9 11.3 17.5 12.0 10.8 16.5 9.2 9.3 10.2 -6.4 11.7 8.0 20.9 20.9 28.6 11.3 11.4 13.3 13.8 12.3 16.1 25.8 6.4 16.1 13.4 11.8 15.4 -8.8 17.7 19.5 26.7 26.7 31.3 16.7 17.0 20.9 15.9 14.5 20.9 15.3 13.3 23.6 15.3 16.2 23.4 -4.5 9.5 3.6 18.5 18.5 27.5 9.2 9.2 10.3 12.9 11.4 14.1 30.3 3.7 13.1 12.5 9.9 12.4 -6.1 9.9 2.7 16.1 16.1 28.8 8.1 9.9 10.0 12.9 10.9 14.0 33.1 0.9 12.4 11.9 10.8 12.9 -6.1 16.5 17.1 30.3 30.3 40.3 20.2 16.5 22.3 19.5 16.2 26.6 21.0 15.1 27.8 19.8 14.0 23.8 -2.4 12.0 7.8 15.5 15.5 21.2 11.7 10.5 15.8 9.3 8.7 12.0 11.8 10.4 13.9 7.0 6.6 12.6 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.6 5.6 12.3 22.9 22.9 6.8 9.9 4.7 4.1 12.2 11.6 7.3 10.1 5.5 9.0 20.3 10.7 11.7 -13.1 15.4 12.3 31.4 31.4 24.4 16.6 8.4 17.5 17.8 17.1 14.5 15.2 12.3 - - - - -5.3 12.2 1.7 31.2 31.2 16.1 16.3 5.8 18.2 13.3 19.6 16.3 21.4 9.1 24.9 4.3 10.0 12.3 -3.4 9.1 14.2 18.0 18.0 23.1 9.0 9.1 14.7 14.1 13.9 18.6 15.3 12.1 18.5 10.0 9.2 11.6 -6.4 13.9 -4.4 38.8 38.8 12.6 20.5 4.0 20.2 12.8 22.7 15.1 24.7 7.5 28.5 1.6 10.4 12.6 -7.3 13.2 -8.8 46.0 46.0 3.2 22.5 -0.2 21.2 11.3 25.9 10.1 29.3 6.1 31.9 -2.3 9.9 - -3.0 16.3 12.3 17.1 17.1 50.3 14.3 17.7 16.8 18.1 12.6 32.5 11.1 12.1 17.7 17.2 11.8 18.2 -3.7 17.4 15.1 15.1 15.1 68.3 13.7 19.2 18.0 18.8 9.7 37.8 9.3 12.0 21.8 20.9 11.9 21.5 -1.2 18.6 20.3 17.3 17.3 38.8 17.4 20.2 21.4 23.7 23.4 29.6 21.8 17.7 19.2 9.0 6.5 6.6 -7.3 8.3 9.9 17.8 17.8 23.8 9.1 5.0 16.3 9.2 6.8 13.9 14.3 4.1 21.4 12.8 9.6 23.8 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -5.4 22.8 -8.2 32.0 32.0 23.5 21.3 18.6 11.0 20.8 19.1 24.3 11.9 7.8 4.3 16.0 20.7 22.2 -13.7 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -2.0 7.2 1.7 1.2 1.2 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.5 0.7 1.4 -0.5 0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.2 0.0 3.2 10.0 1.7 1.1 1.1 1.3 0.5 0.3 -0.3 0.7 0.8 1.3 -0.5 0.5 -1.0 -0.2 0.4 -0.1 -5.3 5.3 1.7 1.3 1.3 1.4 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.4 -0.5 0.5 -0.2 -0.7 -0.6 0.0 -4.5 3.5 0.7 1.2 1.2 2.1 0.2 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.3 1.4 -0.3 1.0 - - - - -5.7 6.1 2.2 1.3 1.3 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.5 -0.6 0.3 -0.6 -0.8 -0.6 0.2 -7.3 5.6 2.1 1.3 1.3 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.4 0.9 1.1 -0.8 0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.3 0.1 3.4 10.2 3.1 0.9 0.9 4.3 1.6 0.3 0.2 1.0 -0.3 3.5 0.2 0.6 -0.5 -1.2 -1.6 0.9 1.4 2.1 0.9 -0.9 -0.9 1.8 0.3 -0.1 0.5 -0.4 -0.9 1.5 0.0 0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -1.2 0.4 -10.7 - - - - - -0.2 - - - - - - - - - - - 3.6 11.8 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.5 1.3 0.1 -0.1 0.2 2.1 2.4 -0.2 0.3 -0.2 -2.5 -1.2 -0.8 -4.9 11.0 0.5 6.2 6.2 9.3 -1.6 -0.3 1.5 0.4 4.2 2.4 0.9 5.8 1.2 - - - 9 September 2018 (Percent change y/y, except quarterly trade data, which are percent change q/q, annualized, and international reserves data, which are percent change over the previous period) 0.39 0.97 1.13 1.17 1.40 1.67 1.13 1.13 1.13 1.27 1.38 1.38 1.45 1.63 1.63 1.77 1.88 1.88 1.88 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.74 1.26 1.32 1.47 1.93 2.34 1.32 1.36 1.43 1.61 1.73 1.87 2.18 2.35 2.34 2.33 2.34 2.32 2.35 -0.26 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.32 -0.32 -0.32 -0.32 1.84 2.33 2.24 2.37 2.76 2.92 2.20 2.36 2.35 2.41 2.58 2.86 2.84 2.87 2.97 2.91 2.89 2.89 3.08 0.11 0.37 0.46 0.38 0.57 0.42 0.41 0.43 0.37 0.36 0.50 0.67 0.54 0.48 0.46 0.33 0.25 0.26 0.35 410 325 322 313 309 351 314 306 320 312 299 309 319 322 353 377 366 383 383 221 164 161 151 157 185 157 148 153 151 146 156 168 171 186 197 193 185 187 302 243 234 233 221 275 224 226 244 229 212 217 234 246 277 301 291 329 310 537 429 428 416 418 455 416 407 422 419 410 420 423 422 459 486 471 493 496 517 385 383 400 367 429 384 381 421 398 359 366 374 385 432 472 451 464 494 518 376 380 350 320 385 367 360 359 332 305 317 337 342 379 436 420 445 455 424 508 487 508 500 505 487 497 505 508 502 517 500 510 509 505 520 524 517 1761 2086 2001 2086 2042 2089 2001 2037 2077 2086 2053 2113 2042 2087 2093 2089 2153 2179 2161 2258 2668 2519 2668 2590 2718 2519 2575 2648 2668 2631 2711 2590 2648 2729 2718 2816 2902 2908 1475 1558 1571 1558 1493 1533 1571 1600 1563 1558 1518 1522 1493 1556 1545 1533 1581 1547 1524 19302 22530 20356 22530 21203 22305 20356 22198 22730 22530 21650 21794 21203 22488 22095 22305 22554 22788 23421 861 1139 1082 1139 1167 1070 1082 1119 1121 1139 1158 1202 1167 1164 1121 1070 1087 1055 1016 419 577 543 577 589 552 543 571 572 577 584 603 589 587 582 552 553 546 524 295 341 331 341 350 312 331 330 330 341 354 370 350 335 316 312 319 294 292 248 275 268 275 280 253 268 268 265 275 285 295 280 271 257 253 263 246 244 2341 2811 2917 2811 3008 2477 2917 2809 2719 2811 2945 3095 3008 2988 2561 2477 2702 2466 2463 0.90 0.89 0.85 0.85 0.81 0.84 0.84 0.85 0.85 0.84 0.82 0.81 0.81 0.81 0.85 0.86 0.86 0.87 0.86 108.80 112.11 110.96 112.75 107.94 109.16 110.80 112.93 112.81 112.51 109.83 107.96 106.02 107.62 109.72 110.13 111.45 111.03 112.38 3.49 3.19 3.16 3.24 3.24 3.61 3.13 3.19 3.26 3.28 3.19 3.25 3.28 3.41 3.64 3.79 3.82 3.93 4.13 6.65 6.76 6.67 6.61 6.35 6.38 6.57 6.62 6.62 6.59 6.41 6.32 6.32 6.30 6.37 6.47 6.72 6.85 6.86 10.12 17.85 17.77 17.71 17.68 17.80 17.65 17.64 17.68 17.81 17.74 17.67 17.63 17.68 17.83 17.88 17.90 17.88 17.91 67.19 65.11 64.29 64.71 64.40 66.99 64.46 65.07 64.85 64.20 63.72 64.44 65.06 65.69 67.49 67.79 68.74 69.62 72.97 67.06 58.31 58.93 58.47 56.96 62.03 57.66 57.76 58.97 58.70 56.93 56.81 57.15 61.01 62.28 62.81 62.83 66.48 67.40 14.71 13.31 13.19 13.62 11.93 12.65 13.17 13.71 14.06 13.11 12.15 11.82 11.84 12.10 12.52 13.33 13.39 14.13 14.87 119.7 119.6 116.6 117.5 114.1 116.6 115.5 117.5 117.7 117.4 114.7 113.7 113.9 113.9 117.0 118.9 119.6 120.6 120.4 55 68 65 75 82 90 69 71 76 78 85 81 81 86 92 91 92 90 90 79 84 83 84 88 89 84 84 85 84 87 88 88 90 90 88 84 83 83 87 87 86 85 88 91 85 85 85 85 87 88 90 92 92 89 86 85 85 64 79 81 84 88 88 84 84 84 85 89 89 85 87 88 88 81 79 76 43 53 50 59 64 71 53 55 60 61 66 63 64 69 73 72 73 71 76 1249 1258 1278 1275 1329 1307 1314 1280 1282 1264 1331 1331 1325 1335 1303 1282 1238 1202 1202 676 1152 1138 1509 1171 1256 1363 1484 1455 1589 1234 1130 1149 1126 1289 1352 1649 1710 1356 10