The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Building Resilience to Climate Related Hazards (P127508) Building Resilience to Climate Related Hazards (P127508) SOUTH ASIA | Nepal | Urban, Resilience and Land Global Practice | Recipient Executed Activities | Investment Project Financing | FY 2013 | Seq No: 13 | ARCHIVED on 30-Dec-2019 | ISR38246 | Implementing Agencies: Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM) under the Ministry of Energy, Water Resources and Irri, Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Development (MoALD), Nepal Key Dates Key Project Dates Bank Approval Date: 15-Jan-2013 Effectiveness Date: 20-Jun-2013 Planned Mid Term Review Date: 20-Jan-2016 Actual Mid-Term Review Date: 25-Jan-2016 Original Closing Date: 30-Nov-2018 Revised Closing Date: 15-Nov-2020 pdoTable Project Development Objectives Project Development Objective (from Project Appraisal Document) Project Development Objective: The main objective of the proposed project is to enhance government capacity to mitigate climate-related hazards by improving the accuracy and timeliness of weather and flood forecasts and warnings for climate-vulnerable communities, as well as developing agricultural management information system services to help farmers mitigate climate-related production risks. This would be achieved by establishing multi-hazard information and early warning systems, upgrading the existing hydrometeorological system and agricultural management information system, and enhancing capacity. Activities funded through the project would help improve decision-making and planning in key climate- vulnerable and water resources dependent sectors particularly agriculture, health, water and disaster management, and contribute to building climate resilience for communities at risk. Has the Project Development Objective been changed since Board Approval of the Project Objective? No Components Table Name Institutional Strengthening, Capacity Building and Implementation Support of DHM:(Cost $5.10 M) Modernization of the Observation Infrastructure and Forecasting:(Cost $16.45 M) Enhancement of the Service Delivery System of DHM:(Cost $3.45 M) Creation of an Agriculture Management Information System:(Cost $6.00 M) Overall Ratings Name Previous Rating Current Rating Progress towards achievement of PDO Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory Overall Implementation Progress (IP) Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory Overall Risk Rating Substantial Substantial Implementation Status and Key Decisions The team noted significant progress in the implementation of various activities by the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM). Since the last review , the Project made significant progress in installation of observation and forecasting equipment and completed some important 12/30/2019 Page 1 of 8 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Building Resilience to Climate Related Hazards (P127508) consultancy assignments. In addition, some of the equipment critical for achieving the Project Development Objective (PDO) such as forecasting workstations is in the process of delivery. The Project disbursed approximately US$ 1 million, taking the total disbursement to US$ 24.90 million, which is an increase from 76.36% to 80.3% of total project funds. The latest withdrawal application has taken disbursements to 82%. The Bank received a request on November 18, 2019 through the Ministry of Finance for a project extension which has since been approved by Bank Management and the new closing date has been communicated to the Government of Nepal as November 15, 2020. Installation and integration of remaining equipment and systems, training and additional skilled resources at DHM would be among the main areas of focus during the extended implementation period. Coordination with DHM for improved agromet service delivery, mainstreaming of the AMIS and ensuring sustainability of investments at sub-national level post-federalization would be focused on in terms of the Agriculture component of the project. Risks Systematic Operations Risk-rating Tool Risk Category Rating at Approval Previous Rating Current Rating Political and Governance -- Substantial Substantial Macroeconomic -- Substantial Substantial Sector Strategies and Policies -- Moderate Moderate Technical Design of Project or Program -- Substantial Substantial Institutional Capacity for Implementation and Sustainability -- Substantial Substantial Fiduciary -- Moderate Moderate Environment and Social -- Substantial Substantial Stakeholders -- Substantial Substantial Other -- Substantial Substantial Overall -- Substantial Substantial Results PDO Indicators by Objectives / Outcomes To enhance government capacity to mitigate climate related hazards IN00734648 ►Increased financial sustainability of DHM operations (Percentage, Custom) (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 40.00 69.00 69.00 100.00 Date 15-Apr-2013 11-Jan-2019 11-Jan-2019 31-Dec-2019 Allocated DHM operational budget for FY 2018-19 = US$ 0.62 million. Please note that O&M Budget Comments: Classification by DHM: i) All Recurrent budget except salary; ii) all Capital budget of DHM Regional and Basin offices except equipment; iii) all Capital budget of DHM HQ except equipments and iv) DHM HQ 12/30/2019 Page 2 of 8 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Building Resilience to Climate Related Hazards (P127508) Capital budget for some spare part. Also please note that US $ 1.4 million that was anticipated for FY 2018-19 in the proposed NPC Three Year Plan was not allocated. IN00734649 ►Increased accuracy and timeliness of weather forecasts (verified using standard methods for forecast verification - WMO WWRP/WCRP) (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target No verification system in Value 0.49 0.49 24 h: 0.75 place - no skill Date 15-Apr-2013 11-Jan-2019 11-Jan-2019 31-Dec-2019 2018: Forecast Verification Skill Score for the year 2018 is in process: Data entry is ongoing. 2017: Weather Forecast Verification Skill Score for 2017 computed by DHM for 24h is 0.488. 2016: The weather forecast verification skill score for 2016 is 0.48. Comments: 2015: Forecast Verification System was tested in 2015 with an initial score of 0.49 based on 3 Indicators and for data from Kathmandu. IN00734650 ►Increased satisfaction of users with DHM services (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 50.83 51.00 51.00 65.00 Date 30-Jun-2015 11-Jan-2019 11-Jan-2019 31-Dec-2019 2018-2019: Endline Users Satisfaction Survey is planned for FY 2018-19. Draft TOR prepared A baseline survey was conducted in 2015 and the average Composite Users Satisfaction Index (CUSI) Comments: was 50.83%. IN00734651 ►Introduction of a sustainable AMIS that systematically streams and archives agriculture relevant hydromet and agromet data and information (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 28.03 53.00 55.00 65.00 Date 15-Apr-2013 22-Aug-2018 13-Nov-2018 31-Dec-2019 Intermediate Results Indicators by Components Institutional Strengthening, Capacity Building and Implementation Support of DHM IN00734652 ►New DHM regulations and business practices (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target DHM Bill 2075 including The draft bill was sent regulation and SOPs of back to DHM with Hydro- metrological technical comments services sharing program from the Ministry. DHM Existing operating DHM Regulations and cum interactive will submit the draft bill procedures are operational guidelines Value discussions with all to the Ministry by inadequate to meet DHM fully functioning and stakeholders was held December 2019, mission support DHM mission (18 June 2018). Under following which it will the process of be circulated to the promulgation. Law and Finance Ministries for 12/30/2019 Page 3 of 8 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Building Resilience to Climate Related Hazards (P127508) clearance and submission for Cabinet approval. Date 15-Apr-2013 11-Jan-2019 13-Nov-2018 31-Dec-2019 IN00734656 ►Improved access to and use of training opportunities (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 22.00 48.00 48.00 100.00 Date 30-Jun-2015 11-Jan-2019 13-Nov-2019 31-Dec-2019 DHM staffs were trained by various experts of SI, PMU and other installation packages e.g. Argo-meteorology, light Comments: . IN00734660 ►Improved transmission of data to WMO GTS/WIS (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 18.00 18.00 95.00 Date 15-Apr-2013 22-Aug-2018 22-Aug-2018 31-Dec-2019 8 (9%) out of targeted 88 AWS network that include: i)Tier 1 (Regional Baseline Synoptic Network) = 1 stn. ii) Tier 2 (Agromet) = 24 stns. iii) Tier 3 (Combination of Tier 1&2) = 5 stns. iv) Tier 4 (Supplementary) Comments: = 45stns and v) Tier 5 (AWOS), are in progress. One Upper Air Sounding station installed at Kirtipur but yet to come in regular operation. Modernization of the Observation Infrastructure and Forecasting IN00734653 ►Improved status of surface meteorological observation network (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 10.00 9.00 74.00 90.00 Date 15-Apr-2013 11-Jan-2019 13-Nov-2019 31-Dec-2019 65 (74%) out of 88 Automated Weather Stations have been installed Comments: IN00734657 ►Improved status of surface hydrological observation network (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 10.00 54.00 54.00 80.00 Date 15-Apr-2013 11-Jan-2019 13-Nov-2019 31-Dec-2019 57 (81%) out of 70 Hydrological stations have been installed Comments: . 12/30/2019 Page 4 of 8 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Building Resilience to Climate Related Hazards (P127508) Enhancement of the Service Delivery System of DHM IN00734654 ►Provision of real-time or near real-time data to the users (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 10.00 20.00 20.00 80.00 Date 15-Apr-2013 11-Jan-2019 13-Nov-2019 31-Dec-2019 Substantial improvement in providing real-time data has been made through upgrading of Hydro-Met Comments: stations (Currently 77% of Hydro-Met stations has been upgraded to automatic modernized stations) IN00734658 ►Development and reliable operation of an authoritative public weather service providing meteorological and hydrological warnings for extreme and high impact events reaching vulnerable communities (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target User satisfaction User satisfaction baseline survey in 16 baseline survey in 16 sample districts has sample districts has been been completed. The completed. The initial initial average Users Verified 24 hr and 3 Rudimentary public average Users Satisfaction Index day weather forecast weather service with Satisfaction Index (USI) Value (USI) for vulnerable disseminated to public unverified 24 hr daily for vulnerable communities is through multiple weather forecast communities is 49.35% 49.35% Terminal channels. Terminal Evaluation is Evaluation is planned planned for FY 2018-19. for FY 2018-19. Draft Draft TOR has been TOR has been prepared. prepared. Date 15-Apr-2013 11-Jan-2019 13-Nov-2019 31-Dec-2019 End line Users Satisfaction Survey has commenced, and expected to be completed by end of 2019 Comments: IN00734661 ►Establish National Framework for Climate Services (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Jan 2019: In the Jan 2019: In the process process of re- of re-advertisement of advertisement of EOI EOI notice. notice. 2018: Procurement of 2018: Procurement of Climate impact Value None NFCS is ongoing. The NFCS is ongoing. The assessment by sector negotiation with the two negotiation with the bidders failed. DHM and two bidders failed. SI updating the TOR and DHM and SI updating cost estimates the TOR and cost estimates Date 15-Apr-2013 11-Jan-2019 13-Nov-2019 31-Dec-2019 This will be done in the extended project period Comments: Creation of an Agriculture Management Information System IN00734655 12/30/2019 Page 5 of 8 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Building Resilience to Climate Related Hazards (P127508) ►Improved access to AMIS data (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target The AMIS is live since The AMIS is live since 23rd May, 2018 - 23rd May, 2018 - www.namis.gov.np. All www.namis.gov.np. All the AMIS product and the AMIS product and Value 0.00 activities are uploaded in activities are uploaded 1 once every month the site such as CVAM in the site such as POCP. Weekly published CVAM POCP. Weekly AAB is also uploaded in published AAB is also the site. uploaded in the site. Date 15-Apr-2013 11-Jan-2019 13-Nov-2019 31-Dec-2019 The AMIS Portal has been live since 23rd May, 2018 and regularly being updated the recently developed information products and disseminated through radio, newspapers, app, SMS. Till the date more than 40 Comments: thousand Hamro Krishi app has been downloaded /distributed. IN00734659 ►Improved linkage between AMIS and WMO AMIS (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 100.00 100.00 85.00 Date 15-Apr-2013 11-Jan-2019 13-Nov-2019 31-Dec-2019 Linked on January 25, 2018 Comments: IN00734662 ►Increased extension service and community training (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 831.00 7,326.00 2,000.00 Date 01-Mar-2013 22-Aug-2018 13-Nov-2019 31-Dec-2019 Total target 2000 (50 focal person of 25 pilot districts, 100 MoALD staffs, 5 PMU staffs, 1263 lead farmers and other) of which 1,261 (63.05%) were certified master trainers till the date. (Included: Out Country Comments: Study Visit, Technical Training including ToT and Farmer's Exposure Visit IN00734663 ►Improved infrastructure development (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 90.00 90.00 100.00 Date 15-Apr-2013 22-Aug-2018 13-Nov-2019 31-Dec-2019 Distributed ICT equipment to all 75 districts. Established 51 KCC (including 1 in center). Distributed 1263 Comments: sets of AMIS infrastructure to 1263 farmers group (1128), cooperatives (135) IN00734664 ►Increased adoption of AMIS tools by farmers (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 7.00 26.00 7.00 12/30/2019 Page 6 of 8 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Building Resilience to Climate Related Hazards (P127508) Date 15-Apr-2013 22-Aug-2018 13-Nov-2019 31-Dec-2019 AAB for 26 pilot districts, POCP & CVAM for 18 districts, Climate Smart Agriculture manual, Weather and CC induced Disease/Pest Occurrence and their Management practices in Crops and Livestock, FAQs & Comments: Answer, HamroKrishi app downloaded 40,696. As the then DADO and DLSO are replaced by Gyan Kendra (both agriculture and livestock), new target is going to define as 98 AKCs & VHLECs IN00734665 ►Improved access to and use of training opportunities (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 550.00 1,026.00 370.00 Date 15-Apr-2013 22-Aug-2018 13-Nov-2019 31-Dec-2019 Technical Training Target: Total 420 staffs/persons (100 from NARC, 15 from PMU, 5 in advance degree from MoALD/NARC, 150 from JT/JTA, and 150 MoALD). Achievement: Total 1,026 has been received the training. Comments: By the end of first trimester period of current FY (2075/76), total 16,563 (Male-11,639, female 4,924) people including 13,919 farmers through roving seminar are capacitated by different types of capacity building program IN00734666 ►Improved efficiency to disseminate and obtain feedback of agro-weather and agro-climate information (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 72.00 81.00 65.00 Date 15-Apr-2013 11-Jan-2019 13-Nov-2019 31-Dec-2019 More than 38 thousand farmers are receiving approximately 2 SMS in a week, more than 40 thousands Hamro Krishi app has been downloaded, 207th AAB for 26 district covering targeted farmers Comments: group/Cooperatives. PAD’s end target: 65%, Achievement 81%) IN00734667 ►Increased satisfaction of users with AMIS services (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 28.03 28.03 55.00 65.00 Date 24-Mar-2016 11-Jan-2019 13-Nov-2019 31-Dec-2019 In June 28, 2019 total 20 farmers were contacted in Surkhet district, out of which 11 responded highly satisfied, 7.67 satisfied. (PAD’s end target: 65%, Achievement: yet to assess) Comments: End line survey is being initiated. Data on Financial Performance Disbursements (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Currency Original Revised Cancelled Disbursed Undisbursed % Disbursed 12/30/2019 Page 7 of 8 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Building Resilience to Climate Related Hazards (P127508) P127508 TF-13557 Effective USD 15.00 15.00 0.00 13.05 1.95 87% P127508 TF-13665 Effective USD 16.00 16.00 0.00 12.33 3.67 77% Key Dates (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Approval Date Signing Date Effectiveness Date Orig. Closing Date Rev. Closing Date P127508 TF-13557 Effective 15-Jan-2013 30-Apr-2013 20-Jun-2013 30-Nov-2018 15-Nov-2020 P127508 TF-13665 Effective 15-Jan-2013 30-Apr-2013 20-Jun-2013 30-Nov-2018 15-Nov-2020 Cumulative Disbursements Restructuring History Level 2 Approved on 14-Aug-2018 ,Level 2 Approved on 10-Dec-2019 Related Project(s) There are no related projects. 12/30/2019 Page 8 of 8