A Survey of the Fertilizer Sector in India SWP331 World Bank Staff Working Paper No. 331 June 1979 Prelbared by: Balu Bumb (consultant) Industrial Projects Departrnent and Development Research Department Colyright © 1979 Tho World Bank 18118 H Street, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20433, U.S.A. those of the authors 6 D SVP its affiliated O h dtr p half.eEdtrDP SLCO18263 The views and interpretations in this document are those of the author and should not be attributed to the World Bank, to its affiliated organizations, or to any individual acting in their behalf. WORLD BANK Staff Working Paper No. 331 June 1979 A SURVEY OF THE FERTILIZER SECTOR IN INDIA This paper analyzes the trends and patterns in consumption, pro- duction, and distribution of fertilizer nutrients in India, and provides the background information for the mathematical programming model of the Indian Fertilizer Sector. The consumption and production of chemical fertilizers have increased at an annual compound rate of, respectively, 17.9% and 17.6% during the last 25 years. Approximately one-third of the consumption re- quirements are met through imports. As the growing need for foodgrains in India will continue to accelerate the demand for chemical fertilizers, the future planning of the fertilizer sector should obviously concentrate on devising an optimum combination of domestic production and imports, so that future supplies of fertilizer nutrients could be made available to the farm- ers at a minimum cost. Various issues related to optimum size, location, product-mix, and distribution patterns leading to minimum farm-gate price of chemical fertilizers are being explored by the programming methods, and will be reported in another paper in this series. Prepared by: Balu Bumb (consultant) Industrial Projects Department and SECIORAL LiBRARY Development Research Center INTERNATiONAL ANYK RECONSTRt)CTION AND DETl:()i'MEN'I' AUG 1 5 1988 Copyright ® 1979 The World Bank 1818 H Street, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20433 U.S.A. Acknowledgements I am grateful to Bill Sheldrick, Armeane Choksi, Alex Meeraus, and Harald Stier for their advice and guidance. My debts to B.S. Minhas and T.N. Srinivasan are immense for the benefit of having several discussions with them on issues relating to Indian agriculture and fertilizer policy. I am also thankful to S.K. Mukherjee for his detailed comments on an earlier draft of this paper; and to P.V. John (Fertilizer Corporation of India), A. Rangachari (Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation), M.T.R. Sharma (National Council of Applied Economic Research), G. Sobhti (Fertilizer Association of India) and S. Sunder (Ministry of Chemicals and Fertilizers) for their help and suggestions. ABBREVIATIONS AS Ammonimum Sulphate CAN Calcium Ammonium Nitrate DAP Diammonium Phosphate FACT Fertilizers and Chemicals, Travancore FAI Fertilizer Association of India FCI Fertilizer Corporation of India GSFC Gujarat State Fertilizer Co. HYV High-Yielding Variety IEL Indian Explosives Ltd. IFFCO Indian Farmers Fertilizer Cooperative Ltd. IFPC Intensive Fertilizer Promotion Campaign K(K20) Potassium Oxide Content in Fertilizer MOP Muriate of Potash N Nitrogen Content in Fertilizers NCAER National Council of Applied Economic Research ONGC Oil and Natural Gas Commission P(P 0 ) Phosphate Content in Fertilizers RITiS Rail India Technical and Economic Services, Ltd. SOP Sulphate of Potash SSP Single Super-Phosphate TSP Triple Super-Phosphate WS Water Soluble TABLE OF CONTENTS Page No. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS .................................. i-iv 1.0 INTRODUCTION ............................................. 1 2.0 INDIAN AGRICULTURE ....................................... 2 2.1 Structural Characteristics of Indian Agriculture .... 3 2.1.1 Rainfall and Agricultural Specialization ..... 3 2.1.2 Foodgrains Production ........................ 4 2.1.3 Irrigation ................................... 6 2.1.4 Size of Holding .............................. 6 2.1.5 New Technology of Production .... ............. 8 2.2 Patterns of growth: Recent Trends .... .............. 8 3.0 CONSUMPTION AND DEMAND FORECASTS OF FERTILIZER NUTRIENTS 9 3.1 Fertilizer Consumption ............................. 10 3.1.1 Nutrientwise Consumption .13 3.1.2 Regional Distribution .13 3.1.3 Per Hectare Fertilizer Consumption .15 3.1.4 Seasonwise and Cropwise Consumption .16 3.1.5 N:P:K Ratio .17 3.1.6 Factors Influencing Fertilizer Consumption in India .18 3.2 Fertilizer Consumption Forecasts .22 3.2.1 The Donde-Brown Forecasts .24 3.2.2 The Planning Commission, and Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation Projections .25 3.2.3 The Parikh-Srinivasan Optimum Requirements 26 3.2.4 The National Commission on Agriculture Projections ................................. 27 3.2.5 The FAI Projections . .......................... 29 3.2.6 The NCAER Projections ..... ................... 29 4.0 CAPACITY, PRODUCTION, IMPORTS AND RAW MATERIALS .......... 30 4.1 Capacity ............................................ 31 4.1.1 Installed Capacity ...... ..................... 31 4.1.2 Sectorwise Capacity ...... .................... 34 4.1.3 Regional Distribution of Licensed Capacity ... 35 4.1.4 Capacity Utilization ..... .................... 37 4.1.5 Capacity Utilization of N Plants .... ......... 37 4.1.6 Capacity Utilization of P 205 Plants .... ...... 38 -2- Page No. 4.2 Production of Fertilizer Nutrients .; .................. 39 4.2.1 Chronology of Fertilizer Manufacture . ......... 39 4.2.2 Nutrient-wise Production .39 4.2.3 Regional Distribution of Fertilizer Production 41 4.2.4 Product Composition of Fertilizer'Nutrients 42 4.3 Fertilizer Imports .......... ....... 43 4.3.1 Imports of Nitrogenous Fertilizers ...-........- 43 4.3.2 Imports of Phosphatic:Fertilizers 44 4.3.3 Imports of Potassic.Fertilizers . . 45 4.3.4 Self Sufficiency in Fertilizers ........ 46 4.4 Raw Materials . . .................. ..................... 48 4.4.1 Production and Potential of Raw.Materials .... 48 4.4.2 Oil and Natural Gas . 49 5.0 PRICING OF FERTILIZER PRODUCTS .. .. 50 5.1 Pricing of Nitrogenous Fertilizers: Statutorily Controlled .............. ...................*.*.*.. 51 5.2 Pricing of NP and NPK Complex Fertilizers .. 55 5.3 Pricing of Phosphatic Fertilizers ....................... 56 5.4 Pricing of Potassic Fertilizers . ....................... 57 5.5 Prices of Fertilizer Raw Materials . ..58 5.6 The Marathe Comittee Report, 1976 . .58 6.0 DISTRIBUTION OF FERTILIZER.PRODUCTS .....59 6.1 Dealers .....................................- 61 6.2 Location and Market Coverage ........ '64 6..3 Fertilizer Promotion Programs ... 65 6.4 Transportation of Fertilizers: The RITES study ...-.... 66 Annexes A. Statistical Tables B. References List of Text Tables Page No. 1. Output per Hectare on Irrigated and Unirrigated Land ............ ..................................... 7 2. Zonewise Consumption of Fertilizers, 1968-69 and 1977-78 .14 3. Fertilizer Consumption, 1961-62 to 1977-78 .... ....... 19 4. All-India Fertilizer Consumption by Seed Variety and Irrigation, 1975-76 .21 5. Availability and Consumption of Nitrogen, 1962-63 to 1976-77 ........................................... 23 6. Fertilizer Balance, 1982-83 .47 LIST OF FIGURES Page No. 2.1 Foodgrains Production in India, 1950 to 1979 ....... 5 4.1 Location of Fertilizer Factories .32 4.2 The Flow Chart of the Fertilizer Industry .... ...... 40 5.1 Prices of Fertilizer products, 1971-77 .... ......... 52 6.1 Fertilizer Distribution Channels .... ............... 62 6.2 Estimated Number of Wholesale and Retail Fertilizer Dealers .63 Summary and Conclusions 1. Growing population and increasing per capita income in India will continue to accelerate the demand for foodgrains as well as other agricultural commodities. Constrained by the limited availability of cultivable land, India's future efforts to increase agricultural output have to be concentrated in shifting the agricultural production functions upwards for various crops by increasing the consumption of fertilizer nutrients along with high-yielding varieties on limited land resources. 2. Fertilizer consumption in India has recorded an over fifty-fold increase during the last 25 years. It increased from 65.7 thousand tons in 1952-53 to 4,287 thousand tons in 1977-78 with a compound growth rate of 17.9% per annum. Nitrogen consumption increased at an annual rate of 16.9 percent while phosphate (P 0 ) and potash (K 20) consumption grew at a compound annual rate of 22.8 and 21.0 percent between 1952-53 and 1977-78. In absolute terms, nitrogen consumption increased from 57.8 thousand tons in 1952-53 to 2,915 thousand tons in 1977-78. Similarly, phosphate and potash consumption increased from 4.6 and 3.3 thousand tons in 1952-53 to 868 and 505 thousand tons in 1977-78. 3. Zone-wise, state-wise, and district-wise analysis of fertilizer consumption indicates wide regional disparities. Punjab, Haryana, Andhra Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, and Tamil Nadu accounted for nearly one-half of the total fertilizer consumption between 1967-68 and 1977-78. On1 the other hand, Rajasthan, Maharashtra, and Madhya Pradesh, the three largest states having nearly 35% of the total cropped area, accounted for only 15% of total fertilizer consumption. The consumption of fertilizer nutrient is much more concentrated at the district level than at the state. In 1974-75, 95 of 380, i.e., 25%, districts consumed more than two-thirds of the fertilizer nutrients used in the country. Thus, efforts must be made to increase fertilizer consumption in those districts where its use is minimal. 4. Not only are there regional disparities in fertilizer consumption in India, but also there are seasonal and crop-wise unevenness. Approximately 65% of the total fertilizer consumption is concentrated in Rabi season, and about one-half is devoted to rice and wheat crops. 5. Approximately one-third of the total cropped area was fertilized in 1975-76 with a range of 5% (Assam) and 76% (Punjab). The use of ferti- lizer nutrients per hectare of fertilized land in the same year varied between 28 kgs (Himachal Pradesh) and 128 kgs (Tamil Nadu) with an all-India average of 78 kgs. Since about two thirds of the cultivated land is still unfertilized, - partly because of lack of knowledge about fertilizers and mostly because of paucity of irrigation and credit facilities-efforts must be made to diffuse knowledge about fertilizers among non-users through extension programs and promotion campaigns, along with developing facilities for irrigation and credit. Efforts are also required to obtain a better balance between N, P, and K. - ii - 6. Various institutions and individuals have attempted to forecast the future consumption of fertilizer nutrients. These forecasts of fer- tilizer consumption by various authors vary between 4.15 m. and 6.46 m. tons for 1978-79 and betwen 6.0 and 8.0 million tons in 1983-84. 7. A suitable forecasting methodology based on realistic behavioral assumptions is still lacking. Although forecasting the future demand for fertilizers is a difficult task, due to uncertainties associated with rain- fall, prices and other socio-economic factors, an attempt.based on economic and non-economic factors influencing the consumption of fertilizer nutrients might provide plausible forecasts. 8. Installed capacity has increased from 16.7 thousand tons of N and 20.5 thousand tons of P 05 in 1950 to 3,028 thousand tons of N and 915 thousand tons of P205 in 1937 and is likely to reach 7.2 million tons of N and 1.5 million tons of P 05 in early eighties. Approximately three-fourths of the N capacity is in the form of urea. A small part of the additional capacity will be available through nitrophosphate and NPK complex fertilizers. No additional capacity is likely to be built for ammonium sulphate and calcium ammonium nitrate, the two most important products of the sixties. Similarly, TSP and NPK complex fertilizers will occupy major share in addi- tional capacity build-ups for P205' 9. Nearly one-half of the existing fertilizer capacity is under public control, and about 40% under private ownership. The cooperative sector controls 9 - 14 percent of the existing capacity. The Indian Farmers Fertilizer Cooperative is the only cooperative factory which has plants in Kandla and Kalol (Gujarat) and is constructing one at Phulpur (U.P.) with the help of a World Bank loan. The share of public sector in fertilizer capacity will increase to 62-65 percent after the completion of the approved as well as under-construction projects. 10. Capacity utilization has varied between 60% and 73% for N and between 46% and 66% for P205 during 1973-77 period. Power failures, shortage of power supply, limited availability of raw materials, and time-lag in obtaining spare parts are stated as some of the improtant factors inhibiting capacity utilization in India. 11. Like consumption, production of nitrogenous and phosphatic ferti- lizers in India has increased severalfold. Nitrogen production increased at a compound rate of 17.6% per annum from 53.1 thousand tons in 1952-53 to 2.0 million tons in 1977-78. Output of phosphatic fertilizers also grew at a compound rate of 17.6% per annum between 1952-53 and 19-77-78. In absolute terms, the P205 output increased from 7.4 thousand tons in 1952-53 to 670.0 thousand tons in 1977-78. 12. In the fifties and early sixties, ammonium sulphate and single superphosphate were the main nitrogenous and phosphatic fertilizers produced in the country. Urea and complex fertilizers have occupied the dominant - iii - position in the seventies. Approximately, three-fourths of the nitrogen was produced in the form of urea in 1977-78. Simiarly, a little less than three-fourths of P 205 was manufactured in the form of NP/NPK complex fer- tilizer. 13. Approximately one-fourth of the nitrogenous and phosphatic fer- tilizer requirements are met through imports. As there are no known reserves of potash in India, all of the potassic fertilizer requirements are, and will continue to be, met through imports. Urea, amonium sulphate, calcium ammonium nitrate, diammonium phosphate, and muriate of potash are the main fertilizer products imported mainly from Germany (East and West), Poland, Italy, Rumania, Quatar, UK, USA and USSR. 14. Inspite of the additional capacity build-ups leading to increased production of N and P 205 in the early eighties, India will have to rely on imports because of increased demand for fertilizer nutrients. 15. In the field of raw materials, naphtha occupies an important place in nitrogen production, accounting for about 70% of the installed capacity. Increased world prices of petroleum products might increase the use of coal and natural gas (available from the Bombay High and Cambay basins) as feed- stocks for nitrogen production in the future capacity build-ups. Similarly, the discoveries of rockphosphate deposits in Udaipur (Rajasthan) and Jhabua (M.P.) districts might substitute for imported rock to a small degree. 16. The Government of India has always controlled the prices of urea, ammonium sulphate and calcium ammonium nitrate. The prices of complex and phosphatic fertilizers are generally fixed by the manufactures, although a prior governmental approval is mandatory because of the subsidy of Rs. 1,250 per ton of P2 05 introduced in March 1976. Since the potassic fer- tilizers are mostly imported by the Minerals and Metals Trading Corporation of India, the Government of India fixes (though not statutorily) the prices of the potassic fertilizers, too. Thus, the fertilizer market in India is not a competitive market, i.e., prices are not determined by the forces of demand and supply. 17. The Marathe Committee, appointed in January 1976, is currently studying the pricing structure of various fertilizer products. The Govern- ment of India has fixed the maximum retail prices of urea, ammonium sulphate and calcium ammonium nitrate as Rs. 1,550, Rs. 935.0 and Rs. 1,015. The Government has also announced the maximum ex-factory prices of these three products as Rs. 1,158, Rs. 625, and Rs. 686, respectively. The Marathe Committee has provided the ex-factory retention prices for each plant. The difference between the maximum ex-factory price and ex-factory retention price will be credited/debited to the Fertilizer Price Fund Account. Given the existing prices, production of urea, AS and CAN would remain subsidized, to a large extent, till March 1979. - iv - 18. The distribution of fertilizer products is handled by the coopera- tive societies as well as private retailers. Of all the retail outlets distributing fertilizer products, approximately 60% belong to the coopera- tives and other public institutions and 40% to the private sector. Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Bihar and Jammu and Kashmir have predominantly cooperative outlets, whereas states in the south and east are served mostly by private retailers. 19. Most of the pivate retailers are located at the district or at the block/mandi headquarters, while some cooperatives are diffused to interior villages. At present, one retail outlet serves approximately eight villages. Moreover, the district/block headquarters have more than one retailer. Hence, the efforts should be made to increase the retail outlets in the isolated and far-off villages in order to increase the consumption of fertilizer nutrients. 20. Railways account for approximately 80% of the fertilizer traffic in India. In 1975-76, railways moved 7.2 million tons of fertilizer products, and are expected to move 13 million tons in 1978-79. As the existing railway capacity is approaching saturation, increasing fertilizer traffic, along with increased average lead and trans-shipment, may create severe distributional problems, unless new railway capacity is built-up, and other modes of trans- portation are substituted. Product exchange among manufacturers should also be encouraged so that unnecessary criss-crossing of fertilizer products be lessened. 1.0 Introduction India is the seventh largest in area, the second most populous country and the most populous democracy in the world. Compared with coun- tries in North and South America, Africa, and Australia, India is relatively densely populated, whereas in comparison to Japan and most of the countries in Europe, India is less densely populated nation.1/ India's population has grown at an annual rate of 2.2 percent during 1961-71 period, and is likely to grow approximately at the same rate in the next decade or two. It is generally believed that heavy population pressures on scarce land re- sources have constrained India's economic development. Nevertheless, India's gross domestic product (at 1970-71 prices) had increased at an annual rate of 3.3 percent during 1961-62 to 1976-77 period, while its per capita gross domestic product increased at an average rate of 1.1 percent per annum. The GDP is expected to increase at an average annual rate of 4.7% during the 1978-83 period. The per capita GNP was about US$150.00 in 1976. 2/ About, 80 percent of India's population lived in rural areas and 70 percent of its working population was engaged in agriculture in 1971. Nearly one-half of total net domestic product in 1973-74 was produced in agricultural sector. The proportion of net domestic product originating in agriculture has fluctuated between 45 and 50 percent during the last fifteen years.3/ Economic growth in India generally fluctuates around the perform- ance of the agricultural sector. In 1975-76, the value added in agriculture recorded an annual increase of over 13 percent enabling a record growth of 8.8 percent in total NDP (in real terms) over 1974-75 level. The Draft Five Year Plan 1978-83 has laid greater emphasis on agricultural and rural development to achieve the objectives of self- reliance, and eradication of unemployment and poverty. Approximately Rs 299 billion, accounting for about 43% of the total outlays, are provided for agricultural and rural development programs. In absolute amount, these outlays are nearly double compared to the outlays in the Fifth Plan. 4/ The Plan also envisages to speed up the growth rate in agricultural sector from about 1.0 percent during 1970-75 period to approximately 4.0% during 1978-83 period, and enhance foodgrains production from 121 million tons in 1977-78 to about 141-144 million tons in 1982-83 by investing in irrigation faci- lities and extension services. This increased emphasis on agricultural production will obviously accelerate the demand for chemical fertilizers, because over 50% increase in foodgrainds production between 1970-71 and 1973-74 is attributed to increased consumption of fertilizers. 5/ 1/ See Table 1.2. 2/ The World Bank estimate. 3/ See Table 1.3. 4/ See Table 1.4. 5/ See John W. Mellor, The New Economics of Growth (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1976), p. 31. India has invested considerable resources in building heavy industries and socio-economic infrastructure during its four five year plans and three annual plans (see Table 1.5). The growth of industrial output was at an average annual rate of 7.8.percent during 1955-65 and 3.5 percent in the following ten years (1965-75). Slow growth of industrial output in the latter period is attributed to failure of agriculture, global energy crisis of the early seventies resulting into higher import costs, and wars with Pakistan. Industrial production is envisaged to grow at an average rate of 7% per annum during 1978-83 period. Imports and exports account, respectively, for 6% and 5% of India's net national product. Imports play a crucial role in supplying technical know-how, machinery and equipments for industrial development. Petroleum products, chemical fertilizers, cotton, edible oils, oil seeds, and foodgrains are other important import items. Since the ability to import depends, to a large extent, on the capacity to export, India has made serious efforts to increase its exports. Between 1960-61 and 1973- 74, India's exports have grown at 7% per annum, and are likely to grow at an annual rate of 8.5% during the 1978-83 period. India's major export items are tea, cotton and jute textile products, sugar, iron ore and ore concentrates, leather goods and "new manufactures" like iron and steel products, engineering goods, chemicals, electrical and telephone equipments, and other metal products. India has rich deposits of coal, iron ore and limestone, and plans to become self-sufficient in aluminimum consumption by the end of the 5th Plan. In the fields of zinc, copper,lead and nickel, the domestic production falls short of demand, and therefore, India has to rely on imports. The discovery of Bombay High and Bassein oil fields might help India to reduce its dependence on imports for oil and petroleum products and increase its production of chemical fertilizers. 2.0 Indian Agriculture Agriculture is the 'most vital' sector of the Indian economy. It provides not only food and raw materials but also employment and income to a very large proportion of the population. Approximately 72 percent of the labor force and 90% of the rural poors are engaged in agriculture. Fluc- tuations in agricultural output are generally reflected in aggregate national income as well as industrial sector. In 1977-78, the agricultural and allied activities sector contributed about 43% to the gross-value-added in the country. The contribution of the agricultural sector to India's exports is equally significant. The exports of raw and processed agricultural commo- dities accounted for 38 percent of all exports in 1973-74. If the value of manufactured goods having agricultural contents (like cotton, jute, wool, leather, etc.) is also included, the contribution of agricultural sector -3 - increases to 54%. 1/ In absolute terms, the agricultural sector exported commodities and raw materials worth Rs 963 crores in 1973-74. Thus, it is an important source of foreign exchange for India. Although the industrial sector has made rapid strides through modern technology in recent time, its dependence on agricultural sector is still quite significant. An analysis of the intersectoral flows for 1964-65 by the National Commission on Agriculture revealed that agricultural inputs (worth Rs. 2,085 crores) accounted for about 20 percent of the value of industrial output (Rs 10,106 crores). In some industries, this dependence was to the extent of 40 to 50 percent. The share of agriculture as inputs in the total output of gur and sugar is as high as 58%, while in tea and coffee it is 42%. Cotton and jute textiles, leather products, and vege- table oils are other industries which rely heavily on agricultural sector. Besides, the agricultural sector provides wage goods for the workers of the industrial sector. The contribution of the industrial sector to the growth of agri- cultural sector is comparatively small. The value of industrial inputs accounted for only 2.53% of the total output in the agricultural sector in 1964-65. Although the increased use of fertilizers, electric pumps, oil engines, tractors, and pesticides after 1964-65 might have increased this share considerally, yet the industrial sector's role in modernizing agriculture needs jacking-up. In spite of the dominant role played by agriculture in India's economy, the growth of agricultural output had been far from satisfactory. Agricultural output grew at an annual rate of 4.07% during 1950-51 to 1960- 61 period, and slowed down considerely thereafter. High rate of growth during the fifties was brought about by extending the cultivated area. As the scope for further extension of cultivable land narrowed down, intensive cultivation through multiple cropping and irrigation in early sixties, and through the adoption of new technology in the late sixties and early seven- ties (HYV seeds and chemical fertilizers) contributed for further growth in agricultural output. The overall annual rate of growth of agricultural output between 1961-62 and 1976-77 has been 2.10%. 2/ As 15 million hectares of additional cultivated area is expected to be brought about under irriga- tion, the rate of growth agricultural output is envisaged to be 4% during the 1978-83 period. 2.1 Structural Characteristics of Indian Agriculture 2.1.1 Rainfall and Agricultural Specialization. With a gross cropped area of 173.92 million hectares and an irri- gated area of 48.41 million hectares in 1977-78, India ranks third in area 1/ See Report of the National Commission on Agriculture, 1976, Part II, P.8. 2/ See Draft Five Year Plan, 1978-83, p.35. - 4 - of cultivated land (after the USSR and USA) and first in irrigated land. India cultivates nearly 45 percent of its geographical area.. Approximately three-fourths of total cropped area is devoted to foodgrains. Wheat, rice, barley, maize, jowar and bajra are main foo:d crops, while cotton, jute, sugarcane, tobacco and groundnuts are principal non-food crops. Indian agriculture is dependent u rfl0unsoon rain for its water needs, and therefore, is very weather sensitive. Krishna has estimated the rainfall elasticity of crop output in Punjab as 0.28. 1/ Not only rainfall is unpredictable, but also it is mostly concentrated in a four month period - June-September - of rainy season (see Table 2.2). Irre- gularity and unpredictability of monsoons have produced cyclical patterns in India's agricultural production (see Figure 1). A peak in foodgrains production corresponds to a very good rainfull year while a trough to a drought year. Concentration of rainfall in a short period of four months in a year has restricted the growth of multiple cropping. Only 22 percent of net area sown was cropped more than once in 1977-78. Rainfall has uneven regional variations too. East and West Coasts, the Ganges valley, and East Central India receive good to heavy rainfall. These areas are also relatively densely populated. Rice, being a labor-intensive and water-intensive crop, is largely concentrated in these parts of the country. Wheat is grown as a dry or irrigated crop where rainfall is lighter. Punjab, Haryana, and U.P. are the main wheat-growing states. Maize, jowar and bajra are grown in those parts of Rajasthan, Gujarat and Maharashtra where rainfall is generally very low. Commercial crops are grown throughout India, but there is some regional specialization: tea in Assam and Bengal; jute in Bengal, and cotton in Gujarat and Maharashtra; sugarcane in U.P., Bihar, Karnataka and Maharashtra; and coffee in Tamil Nadu and Karnataka, and tobacco in Andhra Pradesh. Some rubber is also grown in the South. 2.1.2 Foodgrains Production Cereals and pulses are the basic sources of calories and protein for a vast majority of India's population. Foodgrains production has increased from 55.01 million tons in 1950-51 to 108.42 million tons in 1970-71, yielding an impressive compound growth rate of 3.45% per annum (See Table 2.4.). However, India's foodgrains production fluctuated widely in-between., After reaching a peak level of approximately 88 million tons in 1964-65, foodgrains production declined to 72-74 million tons in the follow- ing two years due to the disastrous droughts of 1965-66 and 1966-67. In 1967-68, output increased to 95 million tons and showed continuous annual increase till it reached another peak level of 108.43 million tons in 1970-71. Between 1970-71 and 1975-76, foodgrains output fluctuated, mainly because of drought conditions in Western India. In 1975-76, foodgrains 1/ R. Krishna, "The Growth of Aggregate Output in the Punjab," Indian Economic Journal XII (July-September, 1964): 53-59. K...L ___ -I L. .I ... /  I / I ., 4 [o I 2Z 'V . A I I -  I L - I - /\ L .. . I-I.. -.1--s I. -I _______ d  I . JII -I---I . I -. - .1.-.- 1- I __ __ __ I __ __ 7Tt77i7777 -'.411. iL..... T .:)7Y  K I I 4 --- -- -. - --.-- - 6 - production increased by 19.4% over 1974-75 level and by 11.43% over 1970-71 level. Late arrivals of monsoon rain in 1976 reduced the foodgrains pro- duction in 1976-77 by approximately 10 million tons. However, in 1977-78, the foodgrains production is estimated at 121.0 million tons (Table 2.4). The target of foodgrains production is 141-144 million tons in 1982-83. 1/ 2.1.3 Irrigation As the scope for expanding the cultivable land is limited in India, further increases in agricultural output, in general, and in food- grains production in particular have to come about by intensive cultiva- tion. Intensive cultivation depends on increased use of modern inputs - fertilizers and improved seeds - and assured supply of irrigation water. Irrigation is an important means of land-augmenting technological change, because it increases the effective supply of land in efficiency units by shifting the production function upward. Output per hectare on irrigated land is much higher than unirrigated land, as is obvious from Table 1. Irrigation also reduces the dependence of agricultural production on rain- fall. Furthermore, the adoption of yield-raising innovations, like improved varieties of seeds and chemical fertilizers, and multiple cropping is possible only in irrigated areas. Investment in the development of irrigation infrastructure has increased from Rs. 434 crores in 1951-56 to Rs. 9,650 crores during the Five Year Plan, 1978-83 period (Table 1.5). Gross irrigated area increased from 22.6 million hectares in 1950-51 to 48.41 million hectares in 1977-78. Although India has the largest irrigated area in the world, only 28% of total cropped area is presently irrigated. The Irrigation Commission has estimated an irrigation potential of 107 million hectares - 72 million hectares from surface water and 35 million hectares from underground water resources - in India. The present plan envisages to create an additionl irrigation potential of 17 million hectares, of which 15 million hectares will be utilized by 1982-83. Thus, total irrigated land will increase to 63.41 million hectares by the end of 1982-83. Increased availability of irrigation water will enhance multiple corpping to 26% of the net area sown. 2.1.4 Size of Holding Not only Indian agriculture shows wide fluctuations resulting from weather variations, but it is also characterized by low productivity and excessive fragmentation. A comprehensive census of agricultural opera- tions undertaken in 1970-71 revealed that there were 70 million agricultural holdings on an operated area of 162 million hectares, yielding an average size of operational holding equal to 2.3 hectares (Table 2.7). Of these, 50% holdings are of less than 1 hectare, and 70% holdings are of less than 1/ See Draft Five Year Plan, 1978-83, p.5. -7 - TABLE 1 Output per Hectre on Irrigated and Unirrigated Land (Based on Three Years Average) (Kgs) H.Y.V Irrigated Unirrigated 1970-71 1973-74 1970-71 1973-74 1970-71 1972-73 to to to to to to Crop 1972-73 1975-76 1972-73 1975-76 1972-73 1975-76 Rice 2,231 1,929 1,358 1,154 743 863 Wheat 2,101 1,930 1,688 1,608 876 790 Other Cereals 1,066 1,001 1,275 1,394 607 627 Source: Draft FIve Year Plan, 1978-83, p. 39. 2 hectares. Thus, majority of the cultivators are small cultivators with small operational holdings. Furthermore, these holdings are fragmented, scattered and excessively parcelized. In 1960--61, there were approximately 6 parcels per operational holding. Minhas has suggested a program of compulsory consolidation of holdings, along with an integrated development of irrigation infrastructure and public works programs in rural areas, to increase the productive capacity of the agricultural sector. 1/ Studies in the Economics of Farm Management by the Govermnent of India in various districts have revealed a negative assocaition between the size of holding and land productivity. Availability of relatively cheap family labor makes these farms labor-intensive. Size of holding is also negatively related with cropping intensity and irrigation (see Table 2.8). Recent survey by the NCAER has revealed that in many states there is a negative association between the size of holding and fertilizer use per hectare. That is, small farms have higher usage of chemical fertilizers compared to their larger counterparts (see Table 2.9). Thus, higher output per hectare on smaller farms results from higher labor, water and ferti- lizers as well as intensive cultivation of land. Since small farms are relatively labor-water-fertilizer in- tensive, the small size of cultivation holding per se might not obstruct economic growth and the adoption of new technology of production in agri- 1/ See B.S. Minhas, "Planning and the Poor" (New Delhi: S. Chand & Co., 1974), Chap. 2. - 8 - cultural sector. 1/ In fact, small farmers have adopted modern inputs - fertilizers and improved seeds-as earnestly as large farmers (see Table 2.9). The National Commission on Agriculture has also recommended that in India's context, small peasant proprietor-based agriculture development is the most desirable and has to be consciously planned and promoted. The Small Farmers Development Agency was created in 1969-70 to help small farmers in the adoption of new technology of production and better farm practices. In addition to consolidation of land holdings, redistribution of land from large farmers to landless agricultural workers, tenant cul- tivators and marginal farmers through effective land reforms is considered important to increase production and eradicate poverty in rural areas. On efficiency grounds, the redistribution of land will not reduce output, although probability is high that it might increase output because of high labor-intensity of small farms. On the equity front, redistribution of land will produce egalitarian distribution of income in rural areas, because land is the main income-generating asset in the countryside. 2.1.5 New Technology of Production Although land, labor and animal power still dominate agricultural production in India, 2/ the use of improved seeds, chemical fertilizers, oil engines and electric pumps have grown rapidly in recent years. Con- sumption of chemical fertilizers was 20.1 kgs per hectare of cultivated land in 1976-77 as against 1.93 kgs per hectare in 1960-61. Similarly, high yielding varieties of seeds were used on 15.5% of total cropped area in 1973-74 as against 1.2% of gross area sown in 1966-67. The use of electric pumps and oil engines increased from 1 million in 1965-66 to 4.2 million in 1973-74, while the number of tractors employed registered threefold increase, from 54 thousand in 1965-66 to 170 thousand in 1972. 2.2 Patterns of Growth: Recent Trends Studies in growth of output and patterns of growth of input show that in certain regions of the country growth in agriculture output is primarily explained by spread of irrigation and multipile cropping, while in others it is due to water, seed and fertilizer technology. The picture varies from district to district. Table 2.11 presents comparative data on gross value of crop output along with important inputs in the triennium 1/ The average size of holding is much smaller in Japan and S. Korea than in India, while their average yields are much higher compared to India (See Table 2.10). 2/ B. Bumb, "Production Relations in Indian Agriculture: An Analysis of the Findings," paper presented at the Southeast Regional Meeting of the Association for Asian Studies, University of Florida, Gainesville, Januarv 1977. 1970-71 to 1972-73 at the district level. Approximately 18% of the dis- tricts in India cultivating 15% of gross cropped area produced 28 percent of aggregate output and had per hectare output above Rs. 1,500. These dis- tricts accounted for 39% of chemical fertilizers consumed, 41% pumpsets installed, 47% tractors used and 34 percent gross irrigated area in the country. The next 25 percent districts had a yield of Rs. 1,000 - 1,500 per hectare, and accounted for approximately 25 percent of total cropped area and produced 32 percent of aggregate output. Their share among major inputs was more or less equal to their share in aggregate output. Taken together, these two groups of districts accounted for approximately 60% of the aggre- gate output and above 60% of major inputs. The remainder of the districts, approximately 58%, had yields of less than Rs. 1,000 per hectare and accounted for 40% of aggregate output. Their share in major inputs was also comparatively low. An analysis of growth rates of value of agricultural output during 1962-63 to 1964-65 and 1970-71 to 1972-73 period reveals that the districts, which recorded an annual compound growth rate of above 3%, accounted for 39% of fertilizers consumed and 45% of gross irrigated area in the country (see table 2.12). Nearly one-third of the districts experienced an annual compound growth rate of 1 to 3 percent. Their share in aggregate output and major inputs was close to one-third. Growth rate of 1 to 3 percent per annum was a model growth rate for the country during this period. Thus, a comparative analysis of growth rates and levels of per hectare output at the district level identifies the critical role of chemical fertilizers and irrigation development in enhancing agricultural production. 3.0 Consumption and Demand Forecasts of Fertilizer Nutrients The National Commission on Agriculture has estimated that the demand for foodgrains will be between 150 and 163 million tons in 1985 and between 205 and 225 million tons in 2,000. As the scope for expanding cultivable area is extremely limited, most of the additional increases in foodgrains production in India has to come about by increased land produc- tivity. The Commission has further postulated that a supply of 164 million tons of foodgrains can be created if the consumption of chemical fertilizers increases to 9 million tons. "If, however, the fertilizers consumption reaches only 7 million tons, production will be of the order of 150 million tons. The production of other crops will also be lower. The lower growth rate in agricultural production would result in a shortfall in the overall growth rate, income and demand for foodgrains and other agricultural com- modities." 1/ Thus, fertilizer consumption will play a critical role in shaping IndTa's future agricultural development. 1/ Report of the National Commission on Agriculture, 1976, Part III, p. 96. - 10 - In 1977-78, the total fertilizer consumption was of the magnitude of 4.3 million tons - 54% above the 1973-74 record level consumption of 2.8 million tons. To meet the targets of 150 and 163 million tons of foodgrains production in 1985, fertilizer consumption has to increase, respectively, by 63 and 109% in a period of seven years. To assess the feasibility and compatibility of these targets, we now turn to a detailed analysis of the past trends, present status and future potentials of con- sumption, production, and distribution of fertilizer nutrients and products in India. 3.1 Fertilizer Consumption Fertilizer consumption in India recorded an over fifty-fold increase during the last 25 years. It increased from 65.7 thousand tons in 1952-53 to 4.29 million tons in 1977-78 with a compound growth rate of 17.9 percent per annum. Between 1952-53 and 1973-74, the consumption of fer- tilizer nutrients showed an uninterrupted upward trend and was doubling almost every five years. Between 1952-53 and 1962-63, fertilizer consump- tion showed an increase of 384 thousand tons, whereas between 1963-64 and 1973-74, it increased by over 2 millions tons. Thus, in absolute terms, fertilizer consumption recorded significant increase in the latter period. The introduction of high-yielding varieties under Intensive Area Development Programs and Intensive District Development Programs gave a boost to fer- tilizer consumption in the sixties. Concentrating development resources in a few potentially productive districts did result into increased fertilizer consumption and foodgrains production. - 11 - In 1974-75, fer'tilizer consumption decreased to 2.6 million tons compared to 2.8 million tons in the previous year. The fertilizer crisis 1/ of 1973-74 resulting in increased fertilizer prices is considered the main cause for this 9 percent decrease in fertilizer use. Nitrogen (through urea) price increased from Rs. 2.28 per kilogram in 1973-74 to Rs. 4.35 per kg. in 1974-75: an increase of 90 percent. Similarly, SSP and MOP prices increased, respectively, by 89 and 81 percent. In real terms, the amount of paddy and wheat required to purchase 1 kg of nitrogen increased, respectively, from 3.26 and 3.00 kilogram in 1973-74 to 5.89 and 4.14 kilograms in 1974-75. What's true for nitrogen (urea) is also true for phosphate and potash. 2/ In 1975-76, the fertilizer consumption recovered the 1973-74 level, while in 1976-77, it registered an increase of approximately 18 percent over 1975-76 consumption levels (see Table 3.3). This increase in fertilizer consumption is mainly attributable to decreased prices, and increased promotional efforts of the Government and industry, the Govern- mental price support and procurement policies, and the extension of area 1/ In early seventies, prices of oil and other petroleum products were oligopolistically increased significantly by the OPEC cotntries. Increased prices of naphtha, natural gas, and other petroleum pro- ducts accelerated 'the cost of production of fertilizer products. When the world was engulfed in an atmosphere of energy crisis, there came the forecasts, by the leading international organizations, of shortages of fertilizers resulting into deficits in food proudction and agricultural output in developing countries. A prediction of gloom and starvation resulting from the shortages of fertilizers and food prompted some densely populated developing countries like India, Indonesia and the Philippines to nearly double their purchases of fertilizers in 1974-75 (see below). Large scale purchases by these countries further accelerated the fertilizer prices in 1974 climaxing to peak levels in June 1974. This atmosphere of anticipated 'shortages of fertilizers' leading to steep increases in fertilizer prices is referred as the 'fertilizer crisis'. Imports of Fertilizers (m tons of nutrients) 1972-73 1973-74 1974-75 1975-76 India 1.22 1.26 1.61 1.54 Indonesia 0.37 0.42 0.99 0.25 Philippines 0.10 0.15 0.37 0.15 Source: The Fertilizer Unit, Industrial Projects Department. 2/ See Section 5.3 below. - 12 - under irrigation and high-yielding varieties crops. 1/ The 1977-78 year has recorded a 26.5% increase in fertilizer consumption over 1976-77 reaching an all-time high level of 4.3 m. tons. 3.1.1. Nutrientwise Consumption Along with NPK consumption, the consumption of each nutrient also increased significantly in absolute as well as in relative terms during the last twenty five years. Nitrogen consumption increased at an anual rate of 16.9 percent, while phosphate (P 0 ) and potash (K 0) consumption grew at a an22O 2 compound annual rate of 22.8 and 21.0 percent between 1952-53 and 1976-78. In absolute terms, nitrogen consumption increased from 57.8 thousand tons in 1952-53 to 2,915 thousand tons in 1977-78. Similarly, phosphate and potash consumption increased from 4.6 and 3.3 thousand tons in 1952-53 to 868 and 505 thousand tons in 1977-78. Although the end-point analysis of consumption of fertilizer nutrients is useful, it is less revealing of the temporal variations in fertilizer consumption. In Table 3.3, the entire priod is divided itto three groups. Between 1952-53 and 1962-63, the total fertilizer consumption increased at an annual compound rate of 21.1 percent, whereas N, P205 and K20 consumption grew, respectively, at a rate of 19.1, 33.5 and 27.1. percent per annum. In the next ten-year period (1962-63 to 1972-73), the consump- tion of all nutrients increased at a lower rate compared to the previous decade, although in each case the rate of growth of consumption was above 15 percent. In the third period (1972-73 to 1977-78), the rates of growth of nitrogen, phosphate and potash consumption are significantly low, viz., 9.6, 8.6 and 7.8 percent respectively. Each fertilizer nutrient (N, P205 and K20) witnessed decline in 1974-75 (Table 3.2) as a result of increased prices. Although the nitrogen consumption in 1976-77 is significantly above the 1973-74 level, the phos- phate and potash consumption levels in 1976-77'were below the 1973-74 levels. In 1977-78, the consumption of P205 and K20 surpassed the 1973-74 levels. 3.1.2 Regional Distribution Although the consumption of fertilizer nutrients showed continuous increases over time till 1973-74 at the all India level, it did not show similar trends at the zonal level. In absolute terms, the fertilizer consumption increased from 402.9, 154.1, 238.1, 657.1 and 223.8 thousand tons in 1968-69 to 1136, 421, 664, 1304 and 656 thousand tons in 1977-78 in the Central East, North, South and West zones respectively. In relative terms, the Central, East, North, South and West zones experienced an increase, respectively, of 182, 173, 179, 98 and 193 percent during 1968-69 and 1977-78 period (Table 2). The lowest percentage increase in the fertilizer consump- tion in the South zone is, perhaps, due to its wider base in 1968-69 compared to other zones. 1/ See Fertilizer News, July 1977. - 13 - Table 2 Zonewise Consumption of Fertilizers, 1968-69 and 1977-78 N + P + K Consumption ------… 000 tons------ Zone 1968-69 1977-78 % Increase Central 402.9 1,136.0 182 East 154.1 421.0 173 North 238.1 664.0 179 South 657.1 1,304.0 98 West 223.8 656.0 193 Source: Fertilizer Statistics, 1976-77, and Fertilizer News, July 1978. The regional distribution of fertilizer consumption shows wide disparities among different zones (See Table 3.5). The North and South zones accounted for approximately half of the fertilizer consumption in the country between 1968-69 and 1975-76, whereas their share in net cropped area was slightly more than one-fourth of the total cultivated land in India. The main reason for their disproportionately larger share in fer- tilizer consumption is the development of irrigation facilities and the introduction of high-yielding varieties crops. Punjab, Haryana, Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh are the important states in these zones which have experienced growth in their agricultural output through Green Revolution. Furthermore, these states grow mainly wheat and rice for which improved seeds were rapidly developed in the sixties. The Western zone accounts for approximately 16-17 percent of total fertilizer consumption. Its share is roughly equal to its contribution to net cultivated area in the country. The Central and East zones, though account for more than 50% of the total cultivated land, have consumed nearly one-third of the fertilizer nutrients in the country between 1968-69 and 1975-76. Between 1975-76 and 1976-77, the East, West and North zones have maintained their share in fertilizer consumption whereas the South zone has lost its share by 6.5 percentage points and the Central zone has in- creased its share by 5.2 percentage points. Not only the South zone reduced its relative share, but the quantity of fertilizer nutrients consumed also - 14 - decreased from 1,000.2 thousand tons in 1975-76 to 960.2 thousand tons in 1976-77. The failure of monsoon rain is considered to be the main reason for the decline in fertilizer consumption in the South zone. I/ The statewise analysis of the share in fertilizer consumption reveals further disparities (Table 3.6). Punjab and Haryana consumed 15 percent of total fertilizers against their share of 6.5% in the cul- tivated land. If U.P., Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh are included with Punjab and Haryana, their share increases to 56% in fertilizer consumption whereas these states account for little less than one-third of the cul- tivated land in the country. Larger states like Rajasthan, Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh, which cultivate nearly 35% of total cropped land in the country, have relatively low levels of fertilizer consumption. The district level analysis of the fertilizer consumption reveals further glaring regional disparities. Twenty of 380, i.e. 5%, districts accounted for about 23 percent of the fertilizer consumption in India in 1974-75 (Table 3.7). On the other hand, 209 districts, i.e. more than half of all the districts, consumed approximately 13% of the fertilizer nutrients in the same year. Simiarly, the top 25% of the districts accounted for approximately two-thirds of the fertilizer consumption in India, while the remaining 75 percent account for little less than one-third. Thus, the attempts to increase fertilizer consumption in India must devise a strategy to diffuse fertilizer nutrients in those districts where the present levels of fertilizer use are minimal. 3.1.3 Per Hectare Fertilizer Consumption The consumption of fertilizers per hectare of cropped land has increased from less than 2 kg. in 1960-61 to 26.2 kgs in 1977-78: a thir- teen-fold increase (Table 3.8). Like total consumption, per hectare use of fertilizer has shown trend increase till 1973-74. In 1974-75, per hectare use fertilizer nutrients decreased to 15.9 compared to 17.4 in the previous year. In the following two years, it showed continuous increase. In spite of this ten-fold increase in the last sixteen years, per hectare use of ferilizer nutrients in India is very low compared to other developing countries like China, Taiwan, Japan, Korea, Egypt, Israel, Indochina and Philippines (See Table 3.8). Table 3.9 presents the data on per hectare fertilizer use in different zones and states in India for two years, viz., 1976-77 and 1977- 78. The North and East zones had, respectively, the highest and the lowest per hectare use in both years. All the zones registered an increase in their per hectare fertilizer consumption in 1977-78 over 1976-77 levels. Among different states, Punjab tops the list in per hectare use of ferti- lizers. Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh are among other states using high doses of chemical fertilizers per hectare of cropped land. Nagaland, 1/ See Fertilizer News, July 1977, p. VII. - 15 - Assam and Tripura fall on the bottom ring of the fertilizer consumption ladder. Gujarat, Maharashtra and Karnataka show the medium levels of fer- tilizer use. So far, none of the states have achieved the levels of fer- tilizers consumption recommended by the agronomist and soil scientists to achieve the maximum yields. This analysis of the fertilizer use per hectare of cropped land in India is less revealing of the fertilizer intensity in the Indian agri- culture. The NCAER survey has revealed that only one-third of the cropped land in India was fertilized in 1975-76, and the per hectare consumption of fertilizer nutrients on the fertilized land was about 78 kgs. 1/ Interstate variations in fertilizer consumption and fertilized land are presented in Table 3.9A. The ratio of fertilized land to total cropped land varies between 5% (Assam) and 76% (Punjab). The cultivating households in Kerala, Punjab, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal and Haryana used fertilizers on nearly one-half or more of their cultivated land. Orissa, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Assam have one-fifth or less of the cultivated land as ferti- lized. The fertilizer consumption per hectare of the fertilized land is highest in Tamil Nadu (128.1 kgs) and lowest in Himachal Pradesh (28.4 kgs). Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala, Punjab and East Bengal are other states applying about 90 or more kilograms of NPK nutrients on one hectare of fertilized land. Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, Assam and Bihar have relatively low levels (less than 50 kgs) of fertilizer consumption. Although Punjab and Orissa have identical levels of fertilizer use, the coverage (proportion of cultivated land being fertilized) is wide spread in the former as compared to very narrow in the latter. 3.1.4. Seasonwise and Cropwise Consumption In absolute as well as relative terms, a larger quantity of fer- tilizer nutrients is used in Rabi (winter) season than in Kharif (monsoon) season (Table 3.10). Between 1968-69 and 1977-78, the proportion of fer- tilizers consumed in Rabi season has varied between 50 and 65 percent. The main reason for this concentration in Rabi season is that wheat is a Rabi crop in India for which various varieties of fertilizer-intensive and yield- raising improved seeds have been developed and adopted by the farmers. Moreover, rice is also grown in this season. Since winter crops are generally grown in assured water supply areas, and the availability of water reduces the risks involved in using chemical fertilizers, the farmers prefer to use relatively more fertilizers in winter than in monsoon season. Except 1974-75, the fertilizer consumption in Rabi seasons has increased uninterruptedly between 1968-69 and 1977-78. On the other hand, the fertilizer consumption in Kharif (monsoon) season shows temporal fluctuations. Having increased continuously between 1968-69 and 1971-72, the fertilizer consumption in Kharif season declined in 1972-73, increased and attained a maximum in 1973-74. The next two years witnessed continuous declines, followed by two years of increase. Although the fertilizer consumption increased by 181 thousand tons in 1976-77 over the 1975-76 level, yet it was below the 1973-74 1/ See NCAER, Fertilizer Demand Study: An Interim Report. - 16 - record level. Droughts in Central and Western India in 1972-73 and the late arrivals of monsoon rain in 1974-75 and 1975-76 along with increased ferti- lizer prices are responsible for these annual variations in fertilizer consumption in Kharif season. The proportion of the fertilizer nutrients consumed in this season has varied between 35 and 50 percent. In 1977-78, fertilizer consumption in Kharif increased to 1,522 thousand tons. No detailed data are available for cropwise distribution of fer- tilizer consumption in India. The preliminary calculations done by NCAER suggest that nearly 40 percent of total fertilizer nutrients consumed in India are accounted for by rice, 24 percent by wheat, and 9% by sugarcane (Table 3.11). Thus, a little less than three fourths of the fertilizer nutrients are used for these three crops. 3.1.5. N:P:K Ratio Table 3.12 provides the information about nutrient ratios (N3P:K) in India for different years. Although there is no clear trend, the nitrogen consumption per unit of phosphate had been fluctuating and declining over time. In early fifties, the Indian farmers were using 7 to 10 times of N per unit of P 205. In the late sixties and early seventies, this ratio was between 3 and 4 units of N per unit of P20,. Having declined to 2.8 in 1973-74, the N:P ratio increased to 3.7 and 4.6 in the following two years. The ratio of K20 per unit of P205 was on the average close to 0.5 in the sixties and early seventies. The N:P:K ratio was 4.6:1:0.6 in 1975-76, 3.9:1.05 in 1976-77, and 3.4:1:0.6 in 1977-78. To attain balance in fertilizer use, India should concentrate her efforts on increasing the consumption of phosphate and potash. Farm level studies have also indicated that output per hectare is maximum when all the three nutrients are used in balanced proportions. 1/ The departure from the balanced fertilization norm is much severe at the zonal and state levels than at the national level. The N:P ratio was above 5 in the Central, East and North zones and was close to 4 in the South and West zones in 1975-76 (Table 3.13). The N:P ratio decreased in a mono- tonic fashion for all the zones in 1976-77. It was 4.8 in East and Central zones, close to 3.5 in the North and South and less than 3 in the West. The K:P ratio varied between 0.1 in South zone to 0.8 in the West in 1975-76 and showed similar fluctuations in 1976-77. Over time, this ratio was stable for the Central, East, and North zones and unstable for the South and West zones. The wider variations in the state level N:P:K ratios are consistent with the law of large number implying lesser variations in macro units 1/ See Bhumbla, "Balanced Fertilization", 1976. - 17 - compared to their micro-constituents. The N:P ratio fluctuated between 1.6 (Goa) and 10.4 (Haryana) in 1975-76 and between 1.8 (Meghalaya) and 7.4 (Haryana) in 1976-77. Like the zonal N:P ratios, the state N:P ratios do not reveal any consistent pattern of change over time: in some states it has increased while in others it decreased. The K:P ratios, like the N:P ratios, are equally unstable among states as well as over time. Kerala, Karnataka, and West Bengal appear to have reasonable N:P:K ratios, while Punjab, Haryana and U.P. are using proportionately more of N, and less of P and K. 3.1.6 Factors Influencing Fertilizer Consumption in India Unless there is a systematic study based on a behavioral model identifying the critical variables influencing fertilizer consumption over time as well as over space, any analysis of factors affecting fertilizer consumption in India should be treated as suggestive, rather than as diag- nostic and prescriptive. The earlier analysis of fertilizer consumption has been rather too aggregative. Moreover the data on fertilizer consumption are available only after 1961-62. Before 1961-62, the information available indicates the distribution of fertilizer nutrients from the Central Fer- tilizer Pool and manufacturers to various distributing agencies (public and privates) in different states. Although a large part of these distri- buted fertilizers must have gone for consumption, the quantity of fertilizer use is still uncertain. Hence, in Table 3, the annual variation in fer- tilizer consumption is calculated from 1961-62 onward. The annual percentage increases were of high magnitude, ranging between 20% and 49%, during 1961-62 and 1967-68 period except for 1965-66 drought year. From 1967-68 to 1971-72, the annual fertilizer consumption varied between 13 and 18 percent. These percentage changes are significantly lower compared to the 1961-62 to 1967-68 period, although in absolute terms, the fertilizer consumption increased by 200-400 thousand tons per annum. The next two years witnessed rather modest increases (3 to 4 percent) while the 1974-75 year registered a 9% decrease in the consumption of fertilizer nutrients due to steep increases in fer- tilizer prices. After 1974-75, fertilizer consumption started increasing due to lowered prices, effective support prices and procurement policies, and extension efforts by the government as well as by the manufacturers. Studies by Gunvant Desai 1/ of Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad and by A. Seshan 2/ of the Reserve Bank of India indicate that, except 1974-75 when prices of fertilizer products nearly doubled, the price environment prevailing in the sixties and seventies was not very inhibitive, and therefore, any manipulation of prices alone will not promote fertilizer consumption, although stability of fertilizer prices is considered very crucial for further growth in fertilizer consumption. That is, the stable price environment plays a permissive, as against promotive, role in enhancing fertilizer use. 1/ Gunvant M. Desai, "A Critical Review of Fertilizer consumption after 1974-75 and Prospects for Future Growth, Fertilizer News, July 1978. 2/ A Seshan, "Fertilizer Consumption in Indian Agriculture," Occasional Papers, Vol. 1, issue No. 1, Reserve Bank of India, Bombay, 1976. - 18 - Table 3 Fertilizer Consumption, 1961-62 to 1977-78 Consumption Annual Change Annual Change ('000 tons) ('000 tons) (percent) Year N P K Total N P K Total N P K Total (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) ) ( (8) (9) (10) (11) (T2) (13) 1961-62 250 60 28 338 - - - - - - 1962-63 333 83 36 452 83 23 8 114 33 33 38 34 1963-64 377 116 51 544 44 33 15 92 13 40 42 20 1964-65 555 149 69 773 178 33 18 269 47 28 35 49 1965-66 575 133 77 785 20 -16 8 12 4 -11 12 2 1966-67 738 249 114 .1,101 163 116 37 316 28 87 48 40 1967-68 1,035 335 170 1,540 297 86 56 439 40 35 49 40 1968-69 1,209 382 170 1,761 174 47 0 221 13 14 0 i4 1969-70 1,356 416 210 1,982 147 34 40 221 12 9 24 13 1970-71 1,479 541 236 2,256 123 125 26 274 9 30 12 14 1971-72 1,798 558 300 2,656 319 17 64 400 22 3 27 18 1972-73 1,839 581 348 2,768 41 23 48 112 2 4 26 4 1973-74 1,829 650 360 2,839 -10 69 12 71 -1 12 3 3 1974-75 1,766 471 336 2,573 -63 -179 -24 -266 -3 -28 -7 -9 1975-76 2,149 467 278 2,894 383 -4 -58 321 22 -1 -17 12 1976-77 2,457 635 319 3,411 308 168 41 517 14 36 15 18 1977-78 2,915 868 505 4,287 458 233 186 876 19 37 59 27 Source: Desai, op cit, for 1961-62 to 1976-77 period, and Fertilizer News July 1978 for 1977-78. - 19 - Other factors considered crucial for fertilizer promotion are irrigation facilities, diffusion of HYVs and availability of credit along with fertilizers. The NCAER survey of about 22,000 cultivating households has revealed that approximately 55% of the cultivating households were not using fertilizers in 1975-76, and the lack of irrigation facilities was the main reason for 48% of them for not using fertilizers. Also, among the fertilizer users, the application rates of fertilizer nutrients differed significantly among those who have irrigation facilities compared to those who do not (see Table 4). The per hectare consumption of fertilizer nutrients was 55.3 kgs on irrigated farms as against 31.8 kgs on unirrigated farms growing 'traditional' varieties of wheat. For high-yielding varieties of wheat, the irrigated farms were using 85.5 kgs of fertilizers compared to 50.2 kgs by their non-irrigated counterparts. For paddy, sugarcane and cotton also, the application rates are higher by a margin of 14 to 104 percent on irrigated farms compared to unirrigated farms. Furthermore, 86% of the total fertilizer consumption in 1975-76 was on irrigated farms. The district-wise and state-wise analyses of fertilizer consumption also reveal irrigation as an important factor influencing the interstate and interdistrict variation in fertilizer use. Thus, the availability oE irrigation facilities appears as an important factor influencing fertilizer consumption, and therefore, the creation of an additional 15 million hectares of irrigation facilities in the new plan (1978-83) should stimulate fertilizer consumption in the next five years. Along with irrigation should come the diffusion of high-yielding variaties of seeds on a wider scale. Since the HYVs are water intensive as well as fertilizer responsive, the increased use of these seeds will stimu- late the demand for fertilizer nutrients. In 1975-76, fertilizer use was 85.5 kg per hectare for HYVs as against 55.3 kg for traditional varieties of wheat on irrigated farms (see table 4). By using the data on fertilizer consumption, prices and area under HYVs for 1961-62 to 1971-72 period, Dharam Narain has estimated that 1% increase in area under HYVs increased the fertilizer consumption by 11%. 1/ Furthermore, the technological change (HYVs) explained approximately 50% of the total variation in fertilizer consumption as against 18% by the price variations during this period. Thus, extension efforts in spreading the high yielding varieties on wider areas, and the development of new varieties for dry farming regions will accelerate fertilizer consumption. The increased demand for HYVs and fertilizers induced by irrigation development will be materialized if adequate resources are available with the farmers. The NCAER survey has indicated nearly one-fifth of the cultivating households identified credit as an important constraint restricting the 1/ Dharm Narain, "Growth of Productivity in Indian Agriculture", Occasional Paper No. 93, Department of Agricultural Economics, Cornell University, Ithaca, N. Y. June 1976. - 20 - Table 4 All India Fertilizer Consumption (N+P+K) by Seed Variety and Irrigation, 1975-76 HYV Traditional All Ratio of Ratio of Varia- Irrigated/ Irrigated/ ties Crop Irrigated Unirrigated Unirrigated Irrigated Unirrigated Unirrigated (a) Per hectare Consumption (kgs) Wheat 85.5 50.2 1.70 55.3 31.8 1.74 75.9 Paddy Autumn 105.3 92.4 1.14 82.0 45.5 1.80 90.6 Winter 96.9 53.4 1.81 73.5 40.4 1.82 69.1 Summer 146.8 90.8 1.62 103.3 95.2 1.1 134.0 Sugarcane 153.6 67.1 2.28 191.8 93.7 2.04 169.3 Cotton 113.1 82.5 1.40 71.4 45.8 1.6 89.4 (b) Percentage Distribution All crops 53.6 3.4 - 32.4 10.6 - 100.0 Source: NCAER, Fertilizer Demand Study, 1975-76. - 21 - extensive as well as intensive use of fertilizers. As the fertilizer con- sumption spreads to small and marginal farmers, the need for credit faci- lities will accelerate. Hence, adequate provisions must be made for in- creased funds through cooperatives, banks and other institutional agencies. The development of irrigation and credit facilities along with the diffusion of HYVs will help in promoting fertilizer use only if ferti- lizer nutrients are available in adequate quantities at the village level. Many a times, the shortages of fertilizer nutrients are identified as a factor responsible for slower growth. The state officials in Maharashtra and Rajasthan complained of inadequate supplies restricting the increased use of fertilizer nutrients. A time series analysis of consumption and availability of fertilizer nutrients during the sixties and seventies by Gunvant Desai 1/ reveals that decrease in closing stocks (as % of consumption) is partly responsible for slower growth in fertilizer consumption during early seven- ties (see table 5). However, a careful analysis of the data in Table 5 does not support this contention. The correlation coefficient between annual growth rate and closing stock is only 0.43. Only in 1973-74 the closing stocks decreased to 5% of the total consumption of nitrogen. Moreover, it is not clear whether India should keep reserves in excess of 10% of the total consumption as an inventory. It is obvious that fertilizers must be there (in the villages) in order to use them. However, fertilizers were not iTI inadequate supplies in the past at the aggregate level. It is possible that these fertilizers were not adequately distributed among the villagers, and also, not at the right time. Given that supplies are adequate to meet current demand, an inequitable and untimely distribution of them might create artificial shortages. Hence, the development of retail networks and transpor- tation facilities should help in widening the narrow base of fertilizer consumption. The success of the Intensive Fertilizer Promotion Programs, in selected districts, along with decreases in prices in 1975-76 and 1976-77 indicates that the extension efforts and distribution facilities should receive as much priority as irrigation, credit and HYVs in promoting fer- tilizer consumption. M6reover, as nearly two-thirds of the fertilizer consumption is accounted for by 25% (of 380) districts, and as these dis- tricts are reaching near saturation levels in fertilizer consumption, further growth in fertilizer consumption has to come about by widening the base, i.e. by diffusing and distributing fertilizers to low-consumption districts through the development of the fertilizer logistics. 3.2. Fertilizer Consumption Forecasts Forecasting the demand for fertilizer nutrients is crucial not only for the agricultural sector because of the latter's dependence on fertilizers for future development but also for the correct investment decisions in the fertilizer industry itself. Incorrect forecasts might result either in shortages for the farmers or-in excess capacity and low profits for the producers. Inspite of the critical role played by the future projections, a suitable forecasting methodology based on realistic behavioral assumptions is still lacking. 1/ op cit. - 22 - Table 5 Availability and Consumption of Nitrogen, 1962-63 to 1976-77 Closing Stock as Annual Total' percentage of Opening Change Domestic Net Availa- Consump- Closing Consump- Availa- Year Stock % Produce Import bility tion Stock tion bility (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) ---------------------------------'000 ton--------------- 1962-63 105 33 194 244 543 333 210 63 39 1963-64 210 13 219 228 657 377 280 74 43 1964-65 280 41 243 232 755 555 200 36 26 1965-66 200 4 238 326 764 575 189 33 25 1966-67 189 28 309 632 1,130 738 392 53 35 1967-68 392 40 403 867 1,662 1,035 627 61 38 1968-69 627 13 563 844 2,034 1,209 825 68 41 1969-70 825 12 731 667 2,223 1,356 867 64 39 1970-71 867 9 833 477 2,177 1,479 698 47 32 1971-72 698 22 949 481 2,128 1,798 330 18 16 1972-73 330 2 1,055 665 2,050 1,839 211 11 10 1973-74 211 1 1,050 659 1,920 1,829 91 5 5 1974-75 91 3 1,187 884 2,162 1,766 396 22 18 1975-76 396 22 1,508 996 2,900 2,149 751 35 26 1976-77 751 14 1,857 750 3,358 2,457 901 37 27 Source: Derived from Fertilizer Statistics, 1976-77, p. 182, and Report of the Committee on Fertilizers, Ministry of Food and Agriculture, Government of India, New Delhi, 1965, P. 154. Reproduced from Desai's paper (op cit). - 23 - Various agencies, like the Fertilizer Association of India, The World Bank, The Planning Commission, and The National Commission on Agri- culture, and the Ministry of Agriculture have projected the consumption of fertilizer nutrients by using different approaches but none of them has developed a behavioral model for the fertilizer sector. Table 3.15 presents forecasts for 1978-79 by various authors. The total NPK consumption forecasts vary between 4.15 and 8.00 million tons. Similarly, there are wide variations among various forecasts for different nutrients. Donde and Brown estimated a demand of 4 - 5.15 million tons for N and 2 - 2.62 m tons for P 0 in 1978-79. Against this, the Parikh-Srinvisasan optimal requirements for A and P 205 are, respectively, 2.17 and 1.69 million tons. For potassic fertilizers, K 20, the Planning Commission projections are lowest while the Parikh-Srinivasan estimates are highest. The National Commission on Agriculture has provided three sets of demand forecasts based on different assumptions 1/ for 1978-79. These forecasts are middle range projections compared with other estimates in Table 3.15. Now, we discuss the underlying assumptions and methodologies of these projections in detail. 3.2.1. The Donde-Brown Forecasts W. B. Donde of the Government of India, and Dorris D. Brown of the World Bank have developed a regression model to predict future demand for fertilizer nutrients. They specified two sets of equations. In one set, the total quantity consumed of nitrogen and phosphate was regressed on the rupee expenditures on fertilizers in the previous year (Ft 1) irrigated and un- irrigated area under Kharif and Rabi crops. In the second set of equations, the rupee value of crop output per hectare in the previous year (G 1) was added to other independent variables of the first set. The inclusion of F is justified, by the authors, on the basis of the 'learning curve' t- 1 concept. The districts were 'divided into ten groups on the basis of cropping pattern, rainfall and per hectare fertilizer consumption. Both sets of equations were estimated by using the pooled cross-section and time-series district data for each group, but the results of the first set of equations were used in the projections for two reasons: first, the estimated coef- ficients of C were not statistically significant; and second, the pre- dictive power oi the second equation was generally lower than that of the first equation. Table 3.16 presents their estimated equations for different groups. By using the. ten year growth rates of Ft i irrigated and un- irrigated area under Kharif and Rabi seasons, the future values of these explanatory variables were projected. The projected values of these 1/ See below for details. - 24 - variables along with their estimated regression coefficients were used to forecast the demand for fertilizers (N+P 20 ). These projections are termed as Projection II (in Table 3.17) by the authors. Their Projection I set is based on a simple extrapolation of the past-growth rate of fertilizer con- sumption between 1959-60 and 1968-69, which was 28.0%, applied to future years. The third set of projections is based on the subjective judgments of the authors in adjusting the estimated coefficients and the observed growth rates of independent variables for each district and every state in the country. The national aggregates were derived by summing up the state level projections for N and P 0 . Between 1973-74 and 1978-79, a compound growth rate of 12.0 was assumea to make projections for 1978-79. Predicting future accurately is the most difficult job confronting the human mind. Different attempts try to minimize the prediction errors in their projections. If one considers a 5 percent prediction error as a plausible and tolerable error, the Donde-Brown model does not perform well at the state as well as national level for 1973-74 (tables 3.17 & 3.18). Since 1973-74 was a normal year, an error of more than 5 percent in the forecasts for this year would cast doubts on the validity of the model as a tool for predicting the future consumption of fertilizer nutrients. Similarly, the Donde-Brown forecasts for 1978-79 are unrealisti- cally very high. In 1977-78, the consumption of nitrogen and phosphate is, respectively, 2.9 and 0.87 million tons. One has to assume an unrealis- tically high growth rate of 35 to 100 percent between 1977-78 and 1978-79, to attain the lower bounds of the Donde-Brown forecasts. The model has ignored some of the important economic variables influencing fertilizer consumption. The relationship between fertilizer prices and quantity consumed is conspicuously absent. Moreover, the com- plementarities between fertilizers and HYVs are inadequately specified. Econometrically, the use of ordinary least squares method yields inconsistent results when cross-section and time-series data are used in estimating the parameters. 1/ A properly specified and correctly estimated behavioral model of fertilizer consumption may prove a useful tool for forecasting the demand for fertilizer nutrient. 3.2.2. The Planning Commission, and the Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation Projections. The Planning Commission of India has projected the demand for fertilizers in 1978-79 as 8 million tons in the Draft: 5th Five Year Plan. 1/ Balestra, P. and M. Nerlov, "Pooling Cross-Section and Time Series Data in the Estimation of a Dynamic Model: The Demand for Natural Gas," Econometrica, Vol. 39, No. 4, (1966), pp. 585-612. - 25 - Since these forecasts were made before the increase in prices of all nutrients resulting from the global energy as well as fertilizer crisis, the Planning Commission has revised its projection in 1976 when the Fifth Plan was finalized. The new projections indicate a future demand of 4.8 million tons in 1978-79 and 8 million tons in 1983-84 (Table 3.15). The basis for these projections is stated by the Planning Commission as follows: "For projecting fertilizer demand, a careful attempt has been made to isolate the expansion that would be necessitated on account of increased emphasis on irrigation facilities and on the spread of new technology, particularly to new areas. Studies made indicate that fertilizer use is highly sensitive to the availability of irrigation facilities, as also to the spread of new technology. These shift factors have been taken into account as also a moderate increase in dosages, under each category of land. Such analysis has been conducted crop by crop and total fertilizer requirements estimated." 1/ As the consumption of fertilizer nutrients in 1977-78 is estimated around 4.3 million tons, a target of 4.8 million tons could be achieved in 1978-79. However, as the new Five Year Plan (1978-83) has replaced the last year of the 5th Plan, a target consumption of 7.8 million tons of NPK nut- rients is aimed for 1982-83, implying an increase of 3.5 million tons over 1977-78 level. Since the fertilizer consumption has increased by 18% in 1976-77 over 1975-76 level, and by 26% in 1977-78 over the previous year's level, an annual compound growth rate of 13% implied by the plan targets should not be difficult to achieve over the next five years. The Working Group on the Development of the Fertilizer Industry for the period 1978-79 to 1987-88, headed by Mr. S.M. Kelkar, Joint Secretary, Ministry of Chemicals and Fertilizers has made projections of demand for N and P 05 by assuming a compound growth rateof, respectively, 8% and 12% after 1983-4 on the basis of the Planning Commission's projections. The projected demand for N and P205 in 1987-88 is, respectively, 7.075 and 2.50 million tons (Table 3.18A). The Ministry of Agriculture has also projected a demand of 5.0 to 5.2 million tons of nitrogen and 1.67 to 1.72 m tons of P. 0 for 1982-83. Their projections for 1987-88 for N and P 20 are, respectiveiy, 6.12 to 6.25 and 2.45 to 2.50 million tons. 3.2.3 The Parikh-Srinivasan Optimum Requirements Kirit S. Parikh and T. N. Srinivasan of the Indian Statistical Institute, New Delhi have developed a quadratic programming model to estimate the requirement of fertilizer nutrients in such a way that the total cost of 1/ Planning Commission: Fifth Five Year Plan, 1974-79. Government of India, New Delhi, 1976. pp. 28. - 26 - fertilizers to produce a given level of agricultural output is minimized. 1/ For the purposes of this model, the country was divided into 57 agro-climatic zones based on soil characteristics, rainfall, cropping pattern etc. For each zone, the fertilizer response functions for differenttypes of local and high yielding varieties of wheat, barley, maize, rice, jowar, bajra, cotton, groundnut and gram were estimated by using the data available from the Simple Fertilizer Trials on the cultivator's farms in 1968-69, 1969-70, and 1970-71. The dominant variety, namely, the variety whose response curve lay above that of all others, was chosen for each crop in every zone. The dominant variety res- ponse functions were scaled for each state to produce the 1970-71 level of nitrogen consumption given the actual consumption of P 205 and K20 in that year. Using the Fifth Plan (Draft) targets for agricultural output, area sown, area irrigated and area under high yielding varieties for each crop in each state as given, the model estimated the optimum requirements of N, P 20 and K 20 as 2.17, 1.69 and 2.60 million tons (see Table 3.19) to meet these Largets at a minimum cost of fertilizers. Because of the diminishing returns to fertilizer nutrients and relatively lower prices of K20, the model suggests that higher amounts of P 205 and K 20 relative to N would be optimum. In one variant of the model, when the ratios of P 0 and K 20 to N are fixed at the Fifth Plan (Draft) level for each crop, {he optimum re- quirements of N, P205 and K20 change respectively to 4.3, 1.7 and 1.1 million tons. In another version, when these ratios are fixed at the 1971-72 observed levels for all crops, the optimum requirements become 4.6 m tons of N, 1.5 m tons of P 205 and 0.8 million tons of K 0. The total requirements of NPK in these versions of the model are 6.49, 7.08 and 6.85 million tons of fertilizer nutrients. Since the data used in estimating the response functions for different varieties of various crops do not represent the conditions pre- vailing on an average cultivator's farm in India, the optimum requirements might differ from actually realiseables due to imperfect knowledge. However, this model does indicate an important area in which the efforts to increase fertilizer consumption may be concentrated. That area is: diffusion of information and knowledge among the farmers about the dominant varieties of different crops. 3.2.4 The National Commission on Agriculture Projections The National Commission on Agriculture has estimated the future demand for fertilizers by using several different methods (Table 3.20). Various estimates indicate the consumption of fertilizers between 4 and 5 million tons of nutrients for 1978-79 and approximately six million tons for 1984-85. 1/ Kirit S. Parikh and T. N. Srinivasan, Optimum Requirement of Fertilizers for the Fifth Plan Period. Indian Statistical Institute, New Delhi, 1974. - 27 - Since the plants require nitrogen, phosphate, potash and other micro nutrients for their growth, the depletion of these nutrients from the soil requires their replenishment. The Commission estimated that the food- grain and non-foodgrain crops had removed 12.38 million tons of N, P 05 and K 0 from the soil in 1970-71. Against this, the total consumption or chemical fertilizers was 2.26 m tons in that year. Hence, 9.12 million tons of nutrients were supplied by the soil. Similarly in 1960-61, the supply of nutrients by the soil was approximately 9.26 million tons. Thus, the capacity of the soil to provide nutrients for crop production can be assumed approximately equal to 9 million tons. The Commission further estimated that given the targets of crop output for 1978-79 and 1980-81, the soil will be depleted of its nutrients to the extent of 16.35 and 18.12 million tons in these years (see Table 3.21). Since a part of these nut- rients will be provided by the crop residue, legume, alagae and bacteria, the entire amount of nutrients removed need not be replenished. During 1969-71 period, the fertilizers added to supply nutrients constituted on an average about 55% N, 45% P 0 and 5% K 0, and 25% of total N + P 0 + K 0 removed by cros. erapsdu~to t2 o 2 5 2 crops. Perhaps,due to scarcity of fertilizers, the observed demand may be less than the optimum. By assuming that 60% N, 50% P 205 and 10% K 20 of the quantities of each removed from the soil will be demanded in the late se- venties and early eighties, the Commission projected a total demand of 5.28 million tons in 1978-79, and 6.0 million tons in 1984-85. The projection of 6 million tons of demand for fertilizers in 1984-85 by the nutrient removal method equals the projections based on an extrapolation of a linear trend of fertilizer consumption between 1967-68 and 1973-74. However, these two methods yield significantly different results for 1978-79 (see Table 3.20). Another method used by the Commission to estimate the demand for fertilizers is based on the recommendations of the soil scientists and agronomists about the optimum dose of N, P 05 and K20 for different crops. By applying the recommended doses of ferti izers to the area under HYVs and local varieties of seeds as well as area under irrigation and dry farming for important food and nonfood crops, the Commission estimated a total demand of 8.50 m tons of nutrients in 1978-79 (Table 3.22). Since this figure appeared unrealistically high, and the observed doses were significantly below the recommended ones in 1973-74, the Commission adjusted the estimates of this method by uniformly scaling them down to 55 percent for each nutrient. Thus, the adjusted demand for fertilizers in 1978-79 is 4.67 million tons (see Table 3.20). Finally, the Commission estimated the marginal product of ferti- lizers by linearly regressing the foodgrains output on the consumption of fertilizers between 1966-67 and 1971-72. The slope of the regression line, i.e., increase in crop output per unit of fertilizer consumption, was esti- mated as 17 for foodgrain crops and 23 for all crops. Since this approach overestimates the contribution of fertilizers to total crop output, the Commission selected a value of 13, and projected the demand for fertilizers as 4.84 million tons in 1978-79. - 28 - 3.2.5. The FAI Projections The Fertilizer Association of India, New Delhi has tried to fore- cast the demand for fertilizers by fitting a quadratic equation to the time series of fertilizer consumption between 1961-62 and 1976-77, (except 1972-73, 73-74 and 1974-75 for N, and 1974-75 and 1975-76 both for P 20 and K 2o). Table 3.23 presents the projections of fertilizer demand for ?976-77 to 1987-88 period by this method along with actual consumption for 1976-77 and 1977-78. A comparison of the projections with actuals for 1976-77 and 1977-78 indicate a very close approximation for total (NPK) consumption with an error of 4 to 9 percent. It is rather interesting to note this method overestimated the consumption needs in 1976-77 whereas in 1977-78, it con- sistantly underestimated. Since these are only two observations, it is hard to evaluate the performance of the model. Although model does not have parameters which can be modified and corrected for changes in exogencous conditions, it is a simple, but elegant, model to provide reasonable fore- casts of future fertilizer consumption levels. The FAI projections for 1982-83 are 7.2 million tons which are considerably below the targets set by the Planning Commission. 3.2.6 The NCAER Projections The National Council of Applied Economic Research, New Delhi is currently engaged in making projections for fertilizer nutrients by using (i) cropping pattern method, and (ii) econometric method. The cropping pattern method derives the forecasts of fertilizer nutrients by using the projected fertilized area under different crops by the Ministry of Agricul- ture and the average per hectare consumption of fertilizer nutrients on the fertilized land for 1975-76 and 1976-77 (available from the survey of 22,000 cultivating households). Some surveys by the Indian Council of Agricultural Research have revealed that fertilizer consumption per hectare of the fer- tilized land (i.e. fertilizer intensity) has remained constant over time. Consequently, the increased fertilizer consumption over time has come through the extension of cultivated land under fertilizers as well as the diffusion of fertilizers among small and medium farmers. The NCAER surveys have revealed that nearly 55% of the cultivating households do not use fertilizers while the unfertilized land constitutes nearly 67% of the total cultivated land. On the other hand, the per hectare consumption of fertilizer on fer- tilized land is reasonably high - about 78 kgs for the country as a whole. Assuming that the observed levels of per hectare fertilizer use in 1975-76 and 1976-77 will remain stable, while the future efforts in fertilizer promotion may result into extended area under fertilizers, one might forecast the fertilizer consumption by multiplying the 1975-76 and 1976-77 average per hectare consumption by the projected fertilized areas under different crops. The Council has not explained the methodology underlying the projections of fertilized area under different crops. Another method used by the Council is based on the microeconomic theory of production function and profit maximization. In order to maximize profits, a farmer will use fertilizers in such a way that at margin the cost - 29 - of an additional kilogram of fertilizer nutrients is equal to the value of additional crop output derived from that extra kilogram of fertilizer nutri- ents. Furthermore, the use of fertilizers also depends on the availability of water (irrigation) and the use of technology (HYVs or traditional seeds). This kind of behavioral model, where fertilizer consumption depends on fertilizer prices, irrigation ratio and areas under HYVs, is estimated by using regression analysis. The estimated coefficients of control variables (prices, irrigation etc) are used in making forecasts. Since the model can be estimated by using time-series as well as cross-section data, it is not clear what sort of data would be used by the Council. However, this being a behavioral model, it would allow the planners to make plausible forecasts by manipulating the control variables. As the Council has not made forecasts by using these approaches, the relative performance of these can not be evaluated ex-ante. It is expected that the Council will make the forecasts of fertilizer nutrients available sometime in near future. 4.0 Capacity, Production, Imports and Raw Materials Fertilizer consumption in India had grown rapidly in the past and is likely to grow severalfold in the future. Increased demand for any commodity in general, and that for fertilizer nutrients in particular, can be met either by imports or by indigenous production. Availability of foreign exchange determines the capacity to import. Scarcity of foreign exchange in India prompted the planners to build adequate capacity for fertilizer produc- tion. Although single super-phosphate (SSP) was manufactured in India as early as 1906, and ammonium sulphate in 1933, the large scale production of nitrogenous and phosphatic fertilizers started only after 1947, and spurted in the sixties and seventies. In 1950, India had an installed capacity of 37.2 thousand tons: 16.7 thousand tons of N and 20.5 thousand tons of P 205. Fertilizers and Chemicals Travancore Ltd, Alwaye (Kerala) was the only large factory with a capacity of 10 thousand tons of N and 8.5 thousand tons of P205. The Sindri Fertilizers and Chemicals Ltd started a factory at Sindri, Bihar, in 1951 to produce ammonium sulphate. Expansion of other public projects in the fifties increased the installed capacity to 162.2 thousand tons of N and 96 thousand tons of P205 in 1960. Efforts by the Government of India during the Third Plan and thereafter, and the investment by the producers during late sixties and early seventies enhanced the installed capacity by nearly twenty-fold for N and ten-folds for P205 between 1960 and 1976. By 1982-83, the installed capacity for N and P205 is likely to be 6.11 and 1.43 million tons respec- tively. - 30 - Like installed capacity, fertilizer production also witnessed severalfold increases in the sixties and seventies. In 1952-53, approxi- mately 53 thousand tons of N and 7.4 thousand tons of P 205 were produced. Against this, nitrogen output increased to 2.00 million tons in 1977-78, while P205 production reached 670 thousand tons in the same year. In the next five years (1978-83), output of N and P205 is expected to double to 4.1 and 1.125 m tons respectively. 1/ In the fifties and early sixties, ammonium sulphate and single super-phosphate were the main nitrogenous and phosphatic fertilizers produced in the country. Urea and complex fertilizers have occupied the dominant position in the seventies. Approximately, three quarters of the nitrogen was produced in the form of urea in 1976-77. Similarly, a little less than three-fourths of P 205 was manufactured in the form of NP/NPK complex fer- tilizers. In the field of raw materials, naphtha occupies an important place in nitrogen production, accounting for about 70% of the installed capacity. The discoveries of petroleum crude at Bombay High will increase the use of natural gas as a feedstock in the near future. Also, India is constructing two plants using coal as a feedstock for nitrogen production. On the other hand, the discoveries of rockphosphate deposits in Udaipur (Rajasthan), Jhabua (M.P.), Mussori (U.P.), and Purulia (West Bengal) dis- tricts might save foreign exchange used in importing rockphosphate for P 205 production, and enhance P 205 output in the eighties. Approximately one-fourth of the nitrogenous and phosphatic fertil- izer requirements are met through imports. As there are no known reserves of potash in India, all of the potassic fertilizers requirements are, and will continue to be, met through imports. 4.1 Capacity 4.1.1 Installed Capacity Although fertilizer production was started in India in 1906 (SSP) and 1933 (ammonium sulphate) by using the by-product COG of the steel plant (TISCO), the total installed capacity was insignificantly small. In December 1950, India had an installed capacity of 37.2 thousand tons: 16.7 thousand tons of N and 20.5 thousand tons of P205. Fertilizers and Chemicals Travan- core Ltd., Alwaye (Kerala) was the only large factory with a capacity of 10,000 tons of N and 8,500 tons of P205 in 1950. It used wood-gasification process to produce ammonia. 1/ See Draft Five Year Plan, 1978-83, p. 196. - 31 - i IJAHU ! KASHYilR t @ @ ', - ', .5t{sH N .jANG AL' / / A_ ?ARY^iiiANA PAT K i.GRrPA_ iPA ' ' itit . -; -APUPt' £v K hETRI , S GORA\i.PUR j % GASP' ' ) \ PWASTi'.AK *v- D' --. U"~~UTAR PF£DESH i2Sv# iiAJATIVAW Ufl ARAUNI PEGLAYA eI ( - @ e ;. VARANASI AARO r ''J r 40'-'KANPUR ANA i\ - DE24, (a4r~~-' -' 'K Nf/OPRA ,}'KANDLAt i 'L__Le % ; - tCORBA i3URNPUR-KiwLT;i) WiSlA;e B;KA -', -,-- SINDR'.to AND L GA 69iBA UNURRADHYA PRADESH BURNCLTA 6GU; ''-L ':'.C TTA ()~ AHMEOABA)'017 KUMHARI JAM-.t?9 I '- HALDOA H,IVNA'A 5. AR R " lAI s H AR oA A jIL A I ORISSA tR3HARASttTilA 2 HAVAJ TA- 3 AIAMER RNAMT 2 - PARADEEP @" 0 s RLOWN KALB R PAN'\E 4 ADIRABA03 URANi AGs\ ANADHRA PRLADESH YAKINADA URAN Ni.TAA ZUARI NAGAR IT 2A MANGALORE ak', ENNOR~E \ )BEL_tUL f NNO,Ri AADI Q iN PRODUCTION MANGALORE 0 \- - 'WIMiNADU z I UNDER IMPLEMENTATION CUDOALOR£E 47 NEYVELI \ COIWAY iBATORE _ E APPROVED IN PRINCIPLE AM8ALAMEDU T ORIN Figure 4.1: Location of Fertiliser Factories (As on October 1, 1977) Note: See Table 4.6 for details. - 32 - In 1951, another factory was set up in Sindri, Bihar to produce ammonium sulphate by using coke and gypsum. During the first two Five Year Plans, the installed capacity increased to 248 thousand tons of N and 120 thousand tons of P 0 . This was achieved by expanding the installed capaci- ties of three public sector and one private sector factories. Product diversification was also achieved during this decade on the recommendations of the Mukherjee Committee and the Ranganathan Delegation. Urea, nitropho- sphate, CAN and ammonium phosphate were introduced into the planning stream in the late fifties. The need to increase food production and reduce dependence on imports of food and fertilizers motivated the Government to increase in- stalled capacity and production of fertilizers during the Third Five Year Plan. As a result of the conscious efforts by the Government of India, the installed capacity increased to 525 thousand tons of N and 264 thousand tons of P 0 by September 1966 (Table 4.1). Major projects taken up during the Third Plan were FCI's 1/ Trombay unit (producing urea and nitrophosphate), Neyveli (Tamil Nadu) unit, Rourkela (Hindustan Steel Ltd.) unit for CAN from coke-oven-gas of steel plant and the expansion of FACT 2/, Alwaye (Kerala) to produce ammonium phosphate. During the three annual plans (1966-67 to 1968-69), the Gujarat State Fertilizer Co., near Boarda, Coromandel Fer- tilizers in Vishakhapatnam and Shriram Chemical Industries at Kota (Rajasthan) were commissioned. Consequently, the installed capacity of nitrogen increas- ed by 732% from 162 thousand tons in 1960 to 1346 thousand tons of N in 1970. Similarly, the P205 capacity increased by 352% - from 96 thousand tons in 1960 to 434 thousand tons in 1970. Partly due to the success achieved during the sixties in building capacity and partly because of the increased demand for fertilizers as a consequence of the Green Revolution in agriculture, along with irrigation development and extension efforts, the Government of India decided to build additional capacity for fertilizer production during the 4th Plan period (1969-74). The Indian Explosives Ltd., Panki (UP), Madras Fertilizers Ltd., Manali (Tamil Nadu), FACT's Cochin, FCI's Durgapur, Namrup, Barauni and Gorakhpur, and Zuari Agro-Chemicals, Goa were the major plants that went on stream during the Fourth Plan period. The Indian Farmers Fertilizer Coopera- tive started production in 1974 at Kandla and Kalol and initiated the construc- tion of another unit at Phulpur (U.P.). The New Fertilizer Policy of 1965 removed the ambiguity of the Industrial Policy Resolution of 1956, regarding the private investment in the fertilizer sector, and therefore, encouraged private investment in fertilizer industry. Mainly medium size plants were constructed by the private investors to produce NP and NPK fertilizers. As a result of all these efforts, the installed capacity increased to 3.03 million tons of N and 0.92 million tons of P205 in October 1978. The Draft Five Year Plan, 1978-83 has laid down a target capacity of 6.11 million tons of N and 1.43 million tons of P205 by 1982-83. 1/ Fertilizer Corporation of India, Ltd. 2/ Fertilizers and Chemicals, Travancore Ltd. - 33 - Table 4.2 indicates the existing as well as planned capacity on N and P20 according to end-products. Nearly three-fourths of the present N capacity Is in the form of urea. The additional capacity of 4.2 million tons of N is to be created in the near future; of which, 2.1 m tons is under implementation and another 2.1 m tons has already been approved in principle. This additional capacity will be available mostly in the form of urea, and a small part in the form of nitrophosphate and NPK complex fertilizers. It is interesting to note that no additional capacity will be built for ammonium sulphate and calcium ammonium nitrate, the two important products of the sixties (see below). In the field of P205, an additional capacity of 396 thousand tons of P 20 is under implementation, and another 174 thousand tons of P 0 capacity has been approved in principle. Nearly nine-tenths of the additional capacity of ?2°0 under implementation will be available in the form of TSP (triple superphosphate) and nitrophosphate and about one-tenth through complex fertilizers, whereas the capacity approved in principle will be available mostly in the form of NP/NPK complex fertilizers. Thus, TSP and complex fertilizers will dominate single superphosphate in additional capacity build-ups for P 205. Recently, the Government of India has reversed its earlier policy of non-approval of SSP plants in future P 205 capacity build- ups by approving 4 SSP plants. 1/ 4.1.2 Sectorwise Capacity The Government of India took an active part in investing, and in building capacity, in fertilizer industry in the fifties and sixties. Two factories, namely, FACT at Alwaye (Kerala) and FCI, at Sindri (Bihar) were public sector undertakings. Perhaps, due to the ambiguity of the Industrial Policy Resolution of 1956, private investors did not invest in the fertilizer sector until mid-sixties. The New Fertilizer Policy of 1965 removed this ambiguity, and encouraged private investment. Thus, till early sixties, private sector's contribution was insignificant. Furthermore, fertilizer industry was included in the list of key industries which led to heavy public investment in this sector. Consequently, 51% of the existing capacity of N was under public control and 42% under private ownership in 1977 (Table 4.3). Although the cooperative sector controls a relatively small portion of the existing capacity, its share is likely to increase significantly. The Indian Farmers Fertilizer Cooperative (cooperative factory) has plants in Kandla and Kalol (Gujarat), is constructing one at Phulpur (U.P.) with the help of a World Bank loan, and has plans to build another plant near Ahmedabad (Gujarat). With regards to the projects under implementation, 76% of the capacity is being build-up in the public sector, and 24% in private and cooperative sectors, each contributing nearly half. 1/ Mr. G. Sobhti of the FAI, New Delhi informed us about this change in policy. - 34 - If the projects, approved in principle, are also included, the share of public sector will increase to 58%. Thus, a significant part of the addi- tional capacity of nitrogen will be constructed under public control. What is true for nitrogen also holds for phosphate (P 20 ). The public sector controls 37% of the existing capacity of P 05 and its share will increase to 50% after the projects under implementation and the projects approved in principle are completed. On the other hand, the share of private sector will decrease from 49% in 1977 to 39% in early eighties. Taken together, public sector will control little less than two- thirds of the capacity in the fertilizer industry in early eighties. 4.1.3 Regional Distribution of Licensed Capacity In a country of the sub-continent size, like India, an equitable regional distribution of productive forces is necessary not only for poli- tical stability but also for greater economic efficiency in order to reduce shipment and transportation costs. Tables 4.4 and 4.5 indicate the zonewise and statewise distribution of fertilizer capacity in India. In the field of nitrogen, south zone had an installed capacity of 1 million tons, accounting for nearly one-third of the total capacity in production in 1977-78. East and west zones, each accounted for little less than one-fourth of the total capacity,while central and north zones, taken together, contributed about one-fifth of the installed capacity in 1977-78. A state-wise comparison reveals that four states, namely, Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, U.P. and Kerala had approximately one-half of the total capacity in production. Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Maharashtra, the three largest states in the country, accounted for less than one-tenth of the total capacity of nitrogen in 1977-78. Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, and other hill states do not have any installed capacity. Each of the remaining states in India contributed between 2% to 7% of the nitrogen capacity. Like the consumption of fertiizer nutrients, installed capacity of nitrogen is also concentrated in a few states. As on January 1, 1978 Punjab and Haryana accounted for little less than 3% of the existing capacity and had projects under construction account- ing for nearly 30% of the additional capacity under construction. As the expansion of the Nangal unit was completed in July 1978, Punjab's capa- city increased from 80 thousand tons to 232 thousand tons. The completion of the National Fertilizer's Bhatinda unit in December 1978 has added another 235 thousand tons to Punjab's existing capacity of 232 thousand tons. Similarly, Haryana has an installed capacity of 235 thousand tons because the Panipat unit of National Fertilizers has been commissioned in December 1978. - 35 - Three states in east zone, namely Bihar, Orissa and West Bengal, account for nearly one-fourth of the new capacity under construction. Modernization of the FCI's Sindri (Bihar) unit, and the construction of the two new units, one at Talchar (Orissa) and another at Haldia (West Bengal) will increase the capacity of east zone by 510 thousand tons by the end of 1979. Similarly, the completion of IFFCO's Phulpur unit in 1979 will enhance the nitrogen capacity of U.P. (Central Zone) by 228 thousand tons, whereas the expansion of the FCI's Trombay IV and V units will increase Maharashtra's nitrogen capacity by 205 thousand tons in early 1980. 1/ Finally, the expansion of the FACT, Cochin II (Kerala), and the construction of the FCI's Ramagundam (Andhra Pradesh) unit will add 233 thousand tons of additional capacity to south zone's existing capacity of 1 million tons of nitrogen. The installed capacity for nitrogen is targeted to reach 6.11 million tons by the end of the present plan (1982-83). Besides 2.1 million tons of additional capacity under construction, India also has approved projects which, on completion, will increase N capa- city by another 2.1 million tons in the mid-eighties. These new projects will be located in Madhya Pradesh (Korba), Rajasthan (Kota), Orissa (Paradeep), Andhra Pradesh (Kakinada) and Maharashtra (Thal Vaishet). Although the implementation of the Korba (M.P.) unit is dependent on the success achieved in operating coal based plants at Talchar (Orissa) and Ramagundam (Andhra Pradesh), while that of Paradeep (Orissa) is contingent on striking of natural gas in the Bay of Bengal (See Table 4.4). 2/ Recent approval of the IEL's Kanpur unit's expansion will increase U.P's. installed capacity by 100 thousand tons. Like nitrogen, phosphate fertilizers capacity is also highly concentrated. Nearly four-fifths of the existing capacity is located in West and South zones (Table 4.5). Furthermore, only four states, namely, Gujarat, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Kerala account for about 75% of the current installed capacity of 915 thousand tons of phosphate. West Bengal, Bihar, Maharashtra and Rajasthan have projects under construction which will increase the present capacity by 396 thousand tons by 1980. All these projects are being implementated under public sector control. Three other states, namely, Madhya Pradesh (Jhabua), Gujarat (Kandla) and Andhra Pradesh (Kakinada), have approved projects for implementation in early eighties. The completion of these projects will add another 174 thousand tons of capacity to India's phosphate fertilizers industry. The installed capacity is expect- ed to reach 1.43 million tons by 1982-83. 1/ The Trombay IV has started production in July 1978. 2/ This information was provided Mr. G. Sobhti of the Fertilizer Associa- tion of India. - 36 - 4.1.4 Capacity Utilization Almost all industries in India suffer from low capacity utiliza- tion 1/, and the fertilizer industry is no exception to that. Between 1970-71 and 1976-77, capacity utilization has varied-be'tween 58% and 71% for nitrogen and between 45 and 66 percent for phosphate (Table 4.7). Power failure and mechenical breakdowns are major factors contributing towards low capacity utilization. An overall low capacity utilization for P 05 may result from the fact that important raw materials used in manufacturing P205, namely, rockphosphate and sulphur, are mostly imported in India. A sharp increase in their prices in 1972-74 period contributed towards low capacity utilization for P 0 5. Lack of demand for P20, and difficulties in operating phosphoric acid piants also deceJerate capacity utilization for P 05 plants. Similarly, increased prices of petroleum products resulting from the ferti- lizer crisis of the early seventies affected'N capacity utilization. 4.1.5 Capacity Utilization of N Plants The Working Group on the Development of Fertilizer Industry has divided the existing fertilizer plants into three broad categories, namely, extremely old plants and those with built-in constraints, stabilized modern plants, and new plants in the process of stabilization. Table 4.8 indicates the classification of the existing fertilizer, plants into these three categories for nitrogen. Of 24 plants, 8 plants belong to the first category while 4 constitute the last category. These 12 plants have obviously very low capacity utilization ranging between 35% and 50%. Learning by operating the new plants embodying modern and complex technology of production is expected to improve the capacity utilization of 4 new plants at Tuticorin, Mangalore, Namrup expansion and Barauni. Corrective measures are being taken to improve the capacity utilization of 8 plants belonging to the first categoy. Sindri, Rourkela and Neyveli have obsolete technology as well as feedstock. Modernization of Sindri plant will replace coke and COG by fuel oil, and low-quality natural gypsum by high quality by-product phospho-gypsum in the production of ammonium sulphate. The Rourkela plant is converted from COG to naphtha-based facility. Similarly, the Neyveli plant is converted to use fuel-oil as a feed-stock in place of its present use of poor quality lignite. The Enmore unit of EID-Perry is being phased out of fertilizer production and is being converted into methanol plant. The Durgapur 'and Cochin plants are also being modified in order to optimize production. After the modernization and/or rationalization of these six units, the capacity utilization of these plants is expected to improve significantly. The remaining two plants, viz, Varanasi and Undyogamandal will continue to have low capacity utilization. 1/ See Bhagawati, J. and P. Desai. India: Planning for Industrialization. Oxford University Press, 1970. - 37 - Plants belonging to the second category have operated at a rea- sonably high level of capacity utilization. Between 1972-73 and 1976-77, the aggregate capacity utilization of this group ranged between 70 and 84%. Some of the plants have attained capacity level exceeding 90%. In 1976-77, the Nangal, Trombay, Namrup and Kanpur plants utilized 94% to 126% of their installed capacities. Among stabilized plants, there are variations in the Levels of capacity utilized, over time as well as across plants. These variations are mainly due to mechanical breakdowns andYor power shortages. Table 4.9 indicates the loss of output due to mechanical breakdowns, power failures, raw material difficulties and other minor factors. Mechanical break downs were responsible for 80 to 90 percent of 340-370 thousand tons of nitrogen output lost in 1975-76 and 1976-77. The total loss of output in these two years was approximately one fifth of the total output. Power failures and power cuts led to reduction in output by 50 to 130 thousand tons during the last five years. Better predictive and preventive maintenance, and inventory and spares control can alone help reduce loss of output due to mechanical break- downs. The present foreign exchange surplus in India should be utilized to import parts and spares to improve capacity utilization. The construction of captive power generating units at Trombay, Gorakhpur, Durgapur and Coromandel should help prevent loss in nitrogen production due to power failures and power cuts. Moreover, a better coordination between the State Electricity Boards and Fertilizer units might avoid frequent power cuts. The Working Group has suggested to supply ammonia from external sources in order to improve capacity utilization. The Marathe Committee has recommended a norm of 80% capacity utilization in order to ensure 12% return on the net worth. For the new units, capacity utilization norms established by the working group are 50%, 70% and 85% during the first, second, and third (and thereafter) year of the commissioning of a new plant. For the coal based plants, these norms are, respectively, 50%, 70%, and 80%. 4.1.6 Capacity Utilization of P40r Plants Compared to nitrogenous fertilizer plants, capacity utilization of phosphatic fertilizer plants is very low. During 1973-74 and 1976-77 period, capacity utilization varied between 46% and 66% (Table 4.7). High prices of straight phosphatic fertilizers compared to complex fertilizers were constraining the demand, and therefore, capacity utilization in P205 fertilizer plants. In March 1976, a subsidy of Rs. 1,250/- per ton of P205 was introduced to stimulate demand. Increased demand for P205 in 1976-77 also enhanced capacity utilization. Table 4.10 indicates capacity utilization for various P205 plants during 1973-74 and 1976-77 period. The Trombay and Ennore units have con- sistantly maintained high levels of capacity utilization, whereas the Udyoga- Mandal unit had always oprated at close to 50% of the installed capacity. The Cochin, Baroda, Madras and Vizag units maintained an average of 60 to 70 percent of capacity utilization. - 38 - L TS al1.35ve /\/ !.~ Fgr 4.2 Th Flo Cat of th FetlLe Idustr .= T a_u f nmmu~ i W zeU Ier j | awLnvs xImjn I 1 1 E ! s wIr * I t o:.~~M Figure 4.2: The Flow Chart of the Fertilizer Industry - 39 - The inadequate supplies of raw materials, like rockphosphate and sulphur, which are mostly imported, is another factor inhibiting high capacity utilization levels. Furthermore, difficulties in operating phosphoric acid plants have also contributed towards low capacity utilization in SSP plants. The discovery and development of rockphosphate in Rajasthan should help in improving capacity utilization by supplying indigenous rockphosphate. 4.2 Production of Fertilizer Nutrients 4.2.1 Chronology of Fertilizer Manufacture Table 4.12 indicates the introduction of different fertilizer products in India. Single superphosphate (SSP) was introduced in 1906, whereas ammonium sulphate was manufactured, for the first time, in 1922. These two products dominated the fertilizer production scene till 1959, when urea, ammonium sulphate nitrate, and ammonium chloride entered the production stream. Between 1960 and 1965, different units of the Fertilizer Corporation of India, and Fertilizers and Chemicals, Travancore, Ltd., Alwaye (Kerala) started manufacturing three fertilizers, namely, ammonium phosphate sulphate, nitrophasphate, and calcium ammonium nitrate. Diammonium phosphate and triple super-phosphate (TSP) were first produced in 1967 and 1968 respec- tively. Other complex fertilizers, like urea ammonium phosphate and ammonium phosphate sulphate nitrate were also introduced in 1968 by the FCI and Coromandel Fertilizers, Ltd., Vizag (Andhra Pradesh). Thus, prior to 1960, SSP and ammonium sulphate were main phosphate and nitrogenous fertilizers. After 1960, urea and many NP and NPK complex fertilizers replaced these two products. 4.2.2 Nutrientwise Production Production of nitrogenous and phosphatic fertilizers in India has increased severalfold since 1952-53. Nitrogen production increased at a compound rate of 17 percent per annum from 53.1 thousand tons in 1952-53 to 2.0 million tons in 1977-78 (Tables 4.13 and 4.14). Output of phosphatic fertilizers grew at a compound rate of 17.6 percent per annum between 1952- 53 and 1977-78. In absolute terms, the P 0 output increased from 7.4 thousand tons in 1952-53 to 670.0 thousan3 Lons in 1976-77. The total output of both nutrients maintained an annual compound growth rate of 16.4 percent during this period (Table 4.14). The New Five Year Plan, 1978-83 envisages to double the installed capacity for fertilizer production during the next five years. Consequently, the production of N and P205 is expected to reach 4.1 and 1.13 million tons in 1982-83. Table 4.14 presents the data on growth rates of fertilizer produc- tion for different sub-periods. Between 1952-53 and 1961-62, nitrogen pro- duction increased at an annual compound rate of 12.6 percent while P205 out- put maintained a compound growth rate of 27.4 percent per annum. Nitrogen production grew at a faster rate in the sixties compared to fifties, whereas - 40 - P20 output increased at a much slower pace in the sixties. In seventies, prAouction of both nutrients recorded lower rates of growth compared to their growth rates in the sixties, although the rate of growth of N production in the seventies was higher than what it was in the fifties. A low rate of growth of fertilizer production in the seventies might be due to global energy and fertilizer crisis resulting into increased prices of imported raw materials like sulphuric acid, rockphosphate and petroleum products used in fertilizer production. Table 4.15 indicates the annual percentage variations in fertilizer production in India between 1961-62 and 1976-77. Nitrogen production has varied between 11% and 39%, during 1961-62 to 1976-77 period except 1965-66 and 1973-74 when it decreased. On the other hand, P205 output has fluctuated annually in the range of 2% and 49%. In 1976-77, production of N and P 205 increased, respectively, by 23.1% and 49.4% over 1975-76 level. Decreased raw material prices, improved power supply and labor relations, and increased demand for ferti- lizer nutrients are considered to be the main contributory factors for this increased level of fertilizer output. 1/ 4.2.3 Regional Distribution of Fertilizer Production Table 4.16 presents the data on zonewise and statewise production of N and P 05 for different years. In 1970-71, U.P., Gujarat and Rajasthan were the three top ranking states in the field of notrogen production, whereas in 1976-77, Gujarat and Tamil Nadu displaced U.P. and Rajasthan, respectively, to the third and fourth position in N production. Punjab, Haryana, Karnataka, Goa and Assam do not produce significant amount of P 0 whereas the contribution of Delhi and Karnataka is nil in nitrogen produc- tion. Over time, production of nitrogeneous fertilizers has increased significantly in U.P., Tamil Nadu, Orissa, Gujarat, West Bengal, and Kerala. Bihar, Andhra Pradesh and Rajasthan have registered declines in their N production between 1970-71 and 1975-76. Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra presents a picture of stagnation, while Punjab could be described as unstable. State level production of P 20 over time does not reveal any consistent pattern. Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat and Maharashtra contribute more than 70 percent of the total P205 output in the country. Zonewise analysis of production trends reveals that central, east and west zones have increased their nitrogenous output uninterrupt- edly during 1970-71 and 1976-77 period. Nitrogen production registered decreases in 1974-75 in the south as well as north zones. South and west zones have registered appreciable increases in P205 production. 1/ Fertilizer News, July 1977., p.ii. - 41 - Relative shares of different zones in fertilizer production have changed considerably between 1967-68 and 1975-76 (Table 4.17). Central zone produced about 2% of the total nitrogen output whereas north and east zones contributed, respectively, 21% and 35% in 1967-68. Thus, more than half of the total N production was concentrated in north and east zones. In 1977-78, total share of east and north zones reduced to about 15% while central zone increased its contribution to slightly more than one-fifth of total N produc- tion in the country. South and west zones, taken together, have maintained their share between 40 and 50 percent of total N production, and continue to produce about 80 to 90 percent of total P205 output in the country. With the discovery of rockphosphate in Udaipur district, Rajasthan, it is anti- cipated that central zone may enhance its share in P205 production in the future. 4.2.4 Product-Composition of Fertilizer Nutrients Ammonium sulphate was the only source of nitrogen produced in India in the fifties. During the Third Five Year Plan period, urea and other straight nitrogenous fertilizer products were introduced. By 1967-68, only 24 percent of the total nitrogen was produced in the form of ammonium sulphate (Table 4.18). Urea and calcium ammonium nitrate (CAN) accounted for, respectively, one-fourth and one third of the total nitrogen production. Thus, these three products supplied more than 80% of nitrogen produced in India in 1967-68. NP and NPK complex fertilizers accounted for about 12 percent of the total N production. Seventies saw another breakthrough in the technology of nitrogen production. No further expansion of ammonium sulphate. In 1976-77, 71% of nitrogen was produced in the form of urea. Ammonium sulphate and calcium ammonium nitrate, which accounted for approximately 57 percent of nitrogen produced in India in 1.967-68, contributed only about 15%. The share of complex fertilizers did not change significantly between 1967-68 and 1976-77. Perhaps, relatively lower distribution and transportation costs, and ease in handling and storing have contributed towards increased production of urea not only in India but all over the world during the seventies. Like ammonium sulphate, single supper-phsophate (SSP) was the only source of P205 till 1958-59 (Table 4.19). Even in the late sixties, SSP accounted for nearly 72 percent of the total P205 produced in India. After 1967-68, SSP's share in P 05 output declined significantly. In 1971-72, SSP accounted for 43% of the total P 0 production; and its share decreased to close to one-fourth in 1975-76 ang ?976-77. Urea-ammonium phosphate, nitrophosphate, diammonium phosphate and ammonium-phosphate sulphate were the other major products accounting for nearly 50% of P 205 production in early seventies. Although the contribution of these products has decreased over time, yet they accounted for approximately 38% of P 0 output in 1976-77. The complex fertilizers provided nearly 35 percent of P 2 'in 1976-77. Thus, NP and NPK comp:Lex fertilizers contributed about three-fourth of the total P20 output as against their very small contribution (less than 1.5%) to nitrogen production. - 42 - Thus, urea for nitrogen, and complex fertilizers for phosphate are the major fertilizer products produced in India. 4.3 Fertilizer Imports The Plantation Boards, who were the early users of chemical fertilizers in India, met their fertilizer requirements through imports. Sodium nitrate from Chile was imported as early as 1899. In 1942, the Government of India launched the "Grow More Food Campaign," under which the use of chemical fertilizers was accepted as an important means to augment the food supply in the country. Also, the indigenous production of chemical fertilizers to meet the domestic demand became the prime goal of the ferti- lizer policy in the forties. It was, however, decided that as long as the indigenous production fell short of the domestic demand, imports would fill the gap. Even today, "meeting the gap" (between consumption and production) appears to be the core of the fertilizer import policy. India imported 1.64 million tons of NPK fertilizer nutrients in 1975-76 as against 47 thousand tons in 1952-53 (Table 4.26). The growth of imports was rather slow in the fifties, accelerated in the sixties and slowed down in the early seventies. With the introduction of the high- yielding varieties of wheat and rice, the fertilizer imports increased significantly in 1966-67 and thereafter. Along with the quantity, the value of the imported fertilizers also increased appreciably in the mid-sixties. The total value of imported fertilizer nutrients rose to Rs. 1,288.2 million in 1966-67 as against Rs. 411.9 million in the previous year (Table 4.26). The fertilizer crisis of the early seventies affected the cost of imported fertilizers adversely for India. The total value of imports increased from Rs. 899.7 m in 1971-72 to Rs. 7,227.7 m in 1975-76: an eightfold increase, whereas the total quantity of imported fertilizers in- creased by about 64% - from 997 thousand tons in 1971-72 to 1,635 thousand tons in 1975-76. Thus, the average cost of each ton of imported fertilizer was much higher in 1975-76 compared to what it was in 1971-72. The main fertilizer products imported in India are urea, ammonium sulphate, calcium ammonium nitrate, nitrophosphate, diammonium phosphate, and muriate of potash. USA, UK, USSR, Japan, Germany (East and West), Italy, Rumania, Poland and Quatar are the major exporters of fertilizer products to India. 4.3.1 Import of Nitrogenous Fertilizers Ammonium sulphate was the main nitrogenous fertilizer product imported in the forties and early fifties. Urea, calcium ammonium nitrate and ammonium sulphate provide approximately 90% of the currently imported nitrogenous fertilizers in the country. USA, USSR, Italy, Holland, Poland, Quatar and Kuwait are major fertilizer exporters to India. India also imports complex fertilizers from West Germany, Italy, UK and USA (Tables 4.27 and 4.28). - 43 - In absolute terms, the imports of nitrogenous fertilizers in- creased from 44.0 thousand tons in 1952-53 to 996.0 thousand tons in 1975-76 (Table 4.26). Prior to 1960-61, India imported relatively small quantities of nitrogenous fertilizers. With a targeted consumption of one million tons of fertilizer nutrients during the Third Plan, India increased fertilizer imports to 399 thousand tons in 1960-61 compared to 142 thousand tons in the previous year. The introduction of high-yielding varieties in 1966-67 further boosted the fertilizer imports to 632 thousand tonis. Although there was a significant decline in the imports of nitrogenous fertilizers in 1970- 71 and 1971-72, fertilizer imports have increased by 57% between 1966-67 and 1975-76. Table 4.30 indicates the import of fertilizer materials. In 1967-68, approximately 1.05 million tons of ammonium sulphate and 0.92 million tons of urea were imported. Against this, 96 thousancl tons of ammonium sulphate and 3.67 million tons of urea were imported in 1975-76. Thus, imports of ammonium sulphate are fast dwindling while those of urea have increased tremendously during the seventies. Imports of calcium ammonium nitrate and complex fertilizers have also increased (luring this period. The contribution of imports to total fertilizer consumption has fluctuated between 21% and 188% before 1960-61, and between 27% and 86% thereafter (Table 4.31). A ratio of current imports to current consumption might be useful only if the fertilizer market was in equilibrium, i.e., demand was equal to supply for every year. Otherwise, this ratio is mis- leading. If there is excess supply in a given year, the aggregate supply in the following year will consist of three components: a) production, b) excess supply from the previous year, and c) imports. Assuming that the fertilizer market,was in equilibrium in 1951-52, i.e., the quantity consumed was equal to the production plus imports, excess supply is calculated for every year from 1952-53 onwards in Table 4.32. It is clear that total supply exceeded total consumption, and therefore, availabilities of fer- tilizer nutrients can not be considered as a factor constraining fertilizer consumpion. The total supplies, compared with consumption, exceeded by 17% (1954-55) and 242% (1961-62). 4.3.2 Import of Phosphatic Fertilizers: Unlike the nitrogenous fertilizers, the imports constituted a small fraction of total supply of the phosphatic fertilizers in India till 1965-66. However, with the introduction of HYV's of wheat and rice in the mid-sixties, the imports of P205 spurted to 148 thousand tons in 1966-67 (compared to 14.0 thousand tons in the previous year), and have fluctuated between 361 thousand 1:ons and 32 thousand tons thereafter (Table 4.26). The phosphatic fertilizers are mostly imported in the form of complex fertilizers, and among NP and NPK complex fertilizers, diammonium phosphate (18-46-0) occupies an important place. In 1975-76, India imported 536.0 thousand tons of DAP costing Rs. 1.48 billion. Ammonium nitrophosphate - 44 - has also contributed significantly towards the imported phosphatic ferti- lizers (Table 4.30). USA, UK, West Germany and France are the main expor- ters of P 205 to India (Table 4.28). The excess supply calculations for P20 (Table 4.33) reveal some interesting results. Between 1952-53 and 1465-66, when imports were meager, the excess supply fluctuated between 32% and 100% of the total consumption. 1/ The increased imports of P 205 in 1966-67 and thereafter, simply generated higher levels of surpluses - 90% in 1967-68 and 70% in 1968-69. The situation, however, changed drastically during the 1970-71 and 1973-74 periods. Instead of excess supply, the deficits of large quantities occurred. These deficits ranged from 109.9 thousand tons in 1970-71 to 112.2 thousand tons in 1973-74. It's not clear how these deficits were met during these years.2/ The phosphatic fertilizer imports are likely to increase in the future for two reasons: First, efforts are being made to increase the consumption of P 05 in order to attain better NPK balance; and second, the creation of a buffer stock equivalent to 20% of the annual consumption. 4.3.3. Import of Potassic Fertilizers: As India does not have any known reserves of potash ores, the potassic fertilizer reqirements are met through imports. Although India had been importing K20 products since 1952-53, the quantity of K20 was insigni- ficantly small compared to nitrogenous fertilizers till 1965-66 (Table 4.26). The introduction of high-yielding varieties in 1966-67 increased the K 20 imports significantly. Between 1966-67 and 1974-75, the K20 imports increased by 270%, from 118 thousand tons in the former year to 437 thousand tons in the latter. The potassic fertilizers are mainly imported in the form of muriate of potash (MOP) from Canada, East Germany, West Germany and USSR (Table 4.29). A small quantity of K20 is imported in the form of sulphate of potash from West Germany. 1/ The manufacturers of P 20 have argued that the lack of demand is the main reason for a very low capacity utilization. These calculations might provide a partial support for their contention. 2/ These deficits are not identical to the economist's concept of "excess demands" which are defined as the difference between expected demand and expected supply at a given price. Thus, excess demand is an ex ante while the deficits are ex post. - 45 - 4.3.4. Self Sufficiency in Fertilizers The Working Group on the Development of Fertilizer Industry has estimated the future stream of production from the existing plants and plants under erection (see tables 4.34A and B). The existing units are expected to contribute 2.53 million tons of N while those under construction may produce around 1.73 million tons of N in 1982-83. Thus, the total supply from indigenous sources, after allowing for a 5% loss in production, would be about 4.04 million tons. It is expected that the approved projects, viz, Kakinada, Korba, Thal Vaishet, Assam, and Ahmedabad, might contribute around 540 thousand tons of N, thereby increasing the domestic supply of N to 4.58 million tons. As the projected demand for N by the Planning Commission is 4.76 milion tons, 1/ India has to rely on imports. The creation of 20% buffer stock will further widen the gap between demand and domestic supply. In 1983-84, production from new units is expected tc increase to 1.125 million tons of N, which might enable India to achieve self-suffi- ciency (Table 4.34C). The self-sufficiency, likely to be achieved in 1983-84, could be sustained only if India plans to build at least 6 more plants, each of 345 thousand tons of N capacity in a manner such that production from these plants becomes available in 1984-85 and thereafter (see Table 4.34B). Likewise in P 0 , India will achieve self-sufficiency in 1983-84 if the projects approve in principle are completed as scheduled (table 4.53B and C). As the expected demand for P205 in 1987-88 is estimated around 2.5 million tons, while the production from the existing units and firm projects will amount to 1.105 million tons, India has to rely on imports unless additional capacity is built-up. To sustain the self-sufficiency achieved in 1983-84, India must build additional capacity of 1.90 million tons of P205 between 1983-84 and 1987-88 (table 4.35C). However, various technical, financial, and sociopolitical factors might delay the implementation of the approved projects, and therefore, India would be dependent on imported fertilizers. Perhaps, the Planning Commission has taken into account some of the possible constraints likely to influence the implementation of the approved projects while formulating the Draft Five Year Plan, 1978-83, and expects a shortfalls of 1.15 million tons of N and 475 thousand tons of P205 in 1982-83 (table 6). These shortfalls are sub- stantially higher than those estimated by the Working Group (see tables 4.34C and 4.35C). Thus, even by the end of the current Five Year Plan, imports will account for nearly one-third of the total fertilizer consumption in India. 1/ See table 3.18A. - 46 - Table 6 Fertilizer Balance 1982-83 Nutrient Demand Production Imports ---------------'000 ton---------------- N 5,250 4,100 1,150 P 1,600 1,125 475 K 1,000 - 1,000 Source: Draft Five Year Plan, 1978-83, p. 44. - 47 - 4.4 Raw Materials Availability of raw materials appears as an important constraint on utilizing the existing capacity as well as on building additional capa- city in the fertilizer industry. Although various raw materials are used in the production of nitrogenous fertilizers, a little less than three-fourths of the existing capacity is based on naphtha (Table 4.20). Natural gas is used for 17% of the current capacity under production. The remainder of the capacity, approximately 13%, uses electric power, coke, coke-oven-gases (COG), lignite and imported ammonia. Significant changes have taken place in the use of feedstocks for N production during the last two decades. In 1955-56, coke and coke- oven gases were the major raw materials used in the production of nitrogen in India. After a decade,naphtha, electric power and lignite provided raw materials for nearly one half of the capacity while the other half was still dependent on coke and COG.- However, a major shift took place in early seventies, and naphtha became one of the most important feedstock used in nitrogen manufacture. Nearly three-fourths of the capacity under production was based on naphtha in 1973. As naphtha became relatively costlier due to increases in prices of petroleum products, the Government of India in 1973-74 decided to cons- truct the additional capacity based on fuel oil. Consequently, the use of naphtha decreased from 75% in 1973 to 70 percent in 1976-77. Furthermore, only about 17% of the additional capacity of 2.1 million tons presently under construction wi]l be based on naphtha. On the other hand, the use of coal and fuel oil is likely to increase substantially. Nearly three-fourths of the additional capacity under implementation as well as approved in principle will use coal and fuel oil as raw materials. Thus, in the early eighties, approximately 33% of the capacity will be based on naphtha and another 33% will use coal and fuel oil as raw materials. The availability of natural gas from Bombay High, Bassein and Cambay basins will increase its use in place of fuel oil as a feedstock for fertilizer production. In order to achieve self-reliance, natural gas and coal would be encouraged in future nitrogen plants. Table 4.21 provides information about the raw materials used for phosphatic fertilizers. Sulphur and imported phosphoric acid are the two most important feedstocks, accounting for nearly 80% of the P 0 capa- city in India. Nitric acid and smelter gases provide raw materias5 for approximately 17 percent of the existing capacity under production. 4.4.1 Production and Potential of Raw Materials in India Self-reliance in the production of fertilizers in India has been stressed by the Government of India as well as by the industry. In addition to capital requirements, the availability of raw materials at a - 48 - relatively cheaper cost is important for attaining self-reliance in fer- tilizer industry. Consequently, India has increased its production of raw materials significantly during seventies and is actively engaged in explor- ing the potential reserves of rockphosphate, oil and other petroleum products. Production of rock-phosphate has increased considerably during the last ten years or so, although their present level of production is much below the current requirements. In 1975-76, approximately 495 thousand tons of rockphosphate was produced (Table 4.22). Udaipur district (Rajas- than) alone supplied aproximately 94% of the total rockphosphate produced in India in 1975-76 (Table 4.23). The Geological Survey of India has estimated that Rajasthan (Udaipur), Madhya Pradesh (Jhabua), Uttar Pradesh (Missouri), and West Bengal (Purulia) have about 150 m tons of rockphosphate deposits. Of these, nearly 100 m tons are expected to be located in Udaipur district. However, only 11.9 million tons of these deposits contain greater than 30% P205 while another 30 million tons has 20% P :0 5 Most of these deposits of relatively high P 05 quality are concentrated in Jhamar Kotra and Maton areas of Udaipur district. Jhabua district of Madhya Pradesh also has 4.3 millions tons of rockphosphate reserves containing greater than 29% P 205 Other deposits are low in P 205 contents (Table 4.24). Since rockphosphate is used in the production of SSP, TSP, nitrophosphate and phosphoric acid, the location of new plants pro- ducing phosphate fertilizers in the vicinity of Jhamar Kotra area may save transportation costs. India's production of sulphuric acid is mainly dependent on the supply of iron pyrites (Amjore mines and Saladipura), copper pyrites (Ghat- sila and Khetri), and waste gases from zinc pyrites (Udaipur). Since the total supply of sulphuric acid from all these sources is very small, India has to rely on imports of sulphur for the availability of sulphuric acid in the future. 4.4.2 Oil and Natural Gas A little less than two-thirds of the petroleum requirements in India are met through imports. Increases in oil prices in 1973-74, and thereafter, enhanced the cost of imported petroleum products from US$265 million in FY 1973 to US$1.6 billion in FY 1976. Consequently, the Govern- ment of India increased its efforts to discover the potential sources of oil in the country. The Oil and Natural Gas Commission (ONGC) carried success- ful explorations in Bombay High and Bassein (North and South) structures and discovered recoverable deposits of 200 million tons of oil and 30,000 million cubic meters of natural gas. 1/ In March 1977, Bombay High achieved 1/ See D.B. Mahatme, "India's Search for Oil" in Commerce, Annual Number 1976, pp. 161-164. - 49 - an annual production oi- 2 million tons of oil. It is estimated that Bombay High basin would attain a potential of annual production of 10 million tons of oil by 1980-81. Around mid-eighties, Bassein (North) would have a potential to add 3-4 million tons of oil per year. At present, besides offshore oil production from Bombay High and Bassein (North) structures, on-shore oil fields of Assam (Digboi, Naharkotiya and Moran) and Gujarat (Ankleshwar, Kalol and Nawagaon) produce approximately 8.3 million tons of crude oil per year. The recoverable reserves from these two basins are estimated around 150 million tons of oil. The total reserves from these three basins, namely, Assam- Arakan, Bombay High-Bassein, and Cambay (Gujarat), will be able to sustain an annual production of approximately 20 million tons in the mid-eighties, which will suffice for approximately two-thirds of the total petroleum requirements in the country. Thus, to become self-sufficient in the field of petroleum pro- ducts, India has to continue its search for offshore and on-shore oil. Preliminary investigations by the ONGC has identified 27 on-shore (17) and off-shore (10) basins having a total.recoverable reserves of two billion tons of oil and four billion tons oil-equivalent of natural gas. Increased production of oil in India will not only help in saving foreign exchange but also increase fertilizer production by meeting a part of the industry's energy and raw material requirements. India does not have any known deposits of potash ores, and there- fore, the potassic fertilizer requirements have to be met by imports. However, India can produce a small quantity of potassium chloride from bittern, a waste product available from sea brine in the process of manu- facturing the common salt. India's annual production of 6 million tons of common salt makes available an equal quantity of bittern, which if evapo- rated to 36 to 37.50 Be', will produce 45,000 tons of potassium chloride and other marine chemicals. The Central Salt and Marine Chemicals Research Institute, Kandla, is engaged in developing processes to use bittern and other waste products from sea brine. However, the supply of potassic fertilizers through this process would remain very small. 5.0 Pricing of Fertilizer Products In market economies, prices of different products are generally determined by the interplay of demand and supply forces, although in certain sectors, like energy and other public utilities, prices are governed by the public regulatory agencies to protect the interests of the consumers along with assuring a fair return on the investment by producers. In developing economies, where structural transformations in consumption and production - 50 - patterns are induced either by economic growth and development or by public policy actions, the governmental regulations of prices and/or quantities of scarce commodities are usually imperative. The introduction of chemical fertilizers in developing countries in general, and in India in particular, was not only an input for agricultural production but also an innovation in the farm sector. Diffusion of any innovation critically depends, among other things, on its profitability, which, in turn, is determined by its price and productivity. To promote an increasing use of fertilizers for agricultural production and to enhance fertilizer production in the country, the Govern- ment of India has assured smooth movements of fertilizer prices by statu- torily controlling the prices of urea, ammonium sulphate, and calcium ammonium nitrate and by providing the guidelines for the determination of the prices of phosphatic and potassic fertilizers. Ocassionally, the Government of India has protected the interests of the consumers and pro- ducers by subsidizing the sale of fertilizers. Currently, the Government is providing a subsidy of Rs. 1,250/- per ton of P205' The prices of NP and NPK complex fertilizers were generally determined by the manufacturers till March 1976. Now, a prior governmental approval of prices of these ferti- lizers is mandatory. Table 5.1 and Figure 5.1 indicate the current prices of different fertilizers nutrients. Between March 1971 and May 1974, prices of various fertilizer nutrients were generally stable. Prices of all fertilizer nutrients recorded steep increases in June 1974, and were at their peak between June 1974 and July 1975. As the increased prices of fertilizer nutrients affected the fertilizer consumption adversely, the Government of India started a series of price reductions in July 1975 and thereafter. In March 1978, the nitrogen prices were Rs. 4.54, Rs. 3.37 and Rs. 4.08 per kg through ammonium sulphate, urea and calcium ammonium nitrate respectively. Thus, at these prices, urea appears to be the cheapest source of nitrogen. The price of P205 is Rs. 3.27 per kg through single superphosphate while that of K 20 is Rs. 1.34 per kg through muriate of potash. Since the current pricing policy has been evolved through different phases in the past, and differs from one product to another, a brief historical analysis is pursued for different product categories. 5.1 Pricing of Nitrogeneous Fertilizers: 'Statutorily Controlled To ensure an equitable' distribution of limited supply of ammonium sulphate, which India received from the International Emergency Food Council on a Government-to-Government basis, the Government of India established the Central Fertilizer Pool in 1944 under the Ministry of Food and Agriculture. The Pool operated on a no-profit no-loss basis and distributed fertilizers to different Plantation Boards and State governments. Till December 1965, the Pool acquired hundred percent of ammonium sulphate, urea, calcium 5 $4 / /9/~~~ 2t --*-*-*-*- --- i , ----_ _ ___ 067 50 30.' nJ72 - 11.10.73 I. j 10.7.75 1.12.75 20.4.76 18.10.76 e.2.77 l6. 3.76 With effect from Figure 5.1: Prices of Fertilizer Products, 1971-77 - 52 - ammonium nitrate and other straight nitrogenous fertilizers produced in the country at a retention price, which was determined by the Cost Account Division of the Ministry of Finance by taking into account the cost of pro- duction as well as a fair return on the investments made by the manufac- turers. The Pool also imported nitrogeneous fertilizers to meet the con- sumption needs in the country. The selling prices of these products were fixed in such a way that profit or loss to the Pool was as low as possible. Between 1944 and 1952, the ammonium sulphate price fluctuated in the range of Rs. 241 and Rs. 380 1/ (Table 5.2). As a result of the increased indigenous production from the FCI, Sindri and FACT, Alwaye (Kerala) units in 1953, ammonium sulphate prices decreased to Rs. 290 - Rs. 310 for cultivators, and to Rs. 330-335 for industrial and plantation users. Prior to 1953, the Pool charged an uniform price for AS to all users. During 1953 and 1965, different prices were charged to State governments and Plantation Boards (Table 5.3 and 5.4). The Tea, Coffee and Rubber Boards paid generally a higher price compared to State Governments who were dis- tributing fertilizers to cultivators. Perhaps, to stimulate the use of nitrogenous fertilizers for agricultural production, the Pool charged relatively lower prices for agricultural purposes. This price differential was in the range of Rs. 5.0 and Rs. 42.0 for ammonium sulphate and between Rs. 2 and Rs. 40 for urea. However, it is not clear why the farmers in U.P., Madras and Orissa were charged different, and generally higher, prices compared to their counterparts in other States and Union territories. The Fertilizer Distribution Enquiry Committee in 1959-60 and the Sivaraman Committee on Fertilizers in 1965 recommended that the manu- facturers should have the "freedom of marketing" their own fertilizers. Consequently, the Government of India gradually decreased the amount of indigenous fertilizers acquired by the Central Fertilizer Pool and allowed the manufacturers to fix their own prices for fertilizers except urea, AS and CAN, whose prices were, and still are, statutorily fixed by the Pool under the Fertilizer (Control) Order, 1957. In April 1969, the Pool did not acquire any amount of fertilizers from domestic manufacturers (Table 5.8). As a result of the Sivaraman Committee's recommendations, the Pool also charged a uniform all India (FOR destination) price for urea, ammonium sulphate and calcium ammonium nitrate. The price build-up for each fertilizer takes into account the landed cost of imported fertilizers, the cost of production of indigenous fertilizers, handling charges at ports for imported fertilizers, interest on investment for six months, incidental and overhead charges and the railway freight. To this the margin for wholesalers and retailers is added. The final price, called the Pool price, is the ceiling price for the farmer, exclusive of central and state sales taxes and local duties but inclusive of excise duty. 1/ F.O.R. main port. - 53 - Between 1966 and 1969, the prices of urea, AS and CAN increased respectively, only by 26%, 24% and 20% inspite of the 57% devaluation of the Rupee in June 1966. In order to protect the interests of the farming community, the Pool sold the fertilizers at the pre-devaluation prices by incurring a loss of Rs. 44 millions. The Pool also protected the interests of the manufacturers by providing a subsidy of Rs. 22.0 million to compen- sate for the increased costs of the imported raw materials. The price of urea, AS and CAN remained more or less unchanged between April, 1969 and May 1974, except an increase in price during October 1973 to specifically cover the increased price of naphtha. The situation, however, completely changed with the global energy and fertilizer crisis of the early seventies. The prices of imported fertilizers and raw materials increased substantially, leading to heavy losses for the Pool. The Government of India resisted the increase in fertilizer prices to protect the interests of the farming community for two years. However, as the burden was becoming so heavy on the Exchequer, amounting nearly Rs. 400 crores annually, the Government unwillingly increased the prices of urea, AS and CAN, respectively, by 90%, 56% and 78% in June 1974. In absolute terms, prices of urea, AS and CAN increased respectively, from Rs. 1,050, Rs. 600 and Rs. 615 per ton in May 1974 to Rs. 2,000, Rs. 935 and Rs. 1,095 in June 1974. 1/ Even at these new prices, the Pool was incurring losses on the imported fertilizers, whereas the domestic manufacturers were having substantial margins over their ex-factory realization prices or fair delivery prices. In order to partly compensate for the losses on the imported fertilizers, the Fertilizer Pool Equalization Charge was introduced in June 1974, under which the domestic manufacturers agreed to pay the difference between the statutory price and fair delivery price to the Central Fertilizer Pool. This charge was, Rs. 610, Rs. 195 and Rs. 295 per ton, respectively, on urea, AS and CAN in June 1974 (Table 5.9). Although these price increases were financially justified in the context of the prevailing international prices of chemical fertilizers, the consumption of fertilizer nutrients was hit hard by them, and recorded a historical decrease of 266 thousand tons in 1974-75 compared to 1973-74. Even in 1975-76, the consumption of fertilizer nutrients remained close to the 1973-74 level. The decrease in fertilizer consumption could have been avoided, if the industry and the Government had made efforts to increase capacity utilization as the following calculations show: If we subtract the Pool Equalization Charge from the statutory prices of these products, we find that the domestic manufacturers were in a position to supply urea, AS and CAN, respectively, at Rs. 1,390, Rs. 740 and Rs. 800 per ton, implying an increases only of 32, 23 and 30 percent over 1/ See Tables 5.3, 5.4 and 5.5. - 54 - May 1974 prices0 These prices are much lower compared to what the farmers were actually faced with in June 1974, and would not have affected the fertilizer consumption adversely, if the domestic industry could produce enough to meet the demand. It is clear from Table 5010 that capacity utilization was very low for these products in 1973-74 as well as in 1974-75. Urea plants were utilizing only 53% of the installed capacity. Similarly, 48% of the CAN capacity was lying idle in 1973-74. The situation was no better in 1974-75 than what it was in 1973-74. If these plants could use at least 80% to 90% of their installed capacities, not only India could have saved scarce foreign exchange used in importing urea, AS and CAN, but also it could have provided fertilizers to its farmers at a relatively much cheaper rate. Thus, the price differential between indigenously produced and imported fertilizers provides a very strong incentive for India to increase the capacity utilization and to expand the installed capacity for fertilizer production. Prompted by the price-responsiveness of the fertilizer demand, 1/ the Government of India reduced the prices of statutorily controlled fertilizers in July 1975, March 1976, and February and November 1977 by reducing the amount of the Fertilizer Pool Equalization Charge. 2/ These downward movements of prices, inter alia, did stimulate fertilizer con- sumption in 1975-76 and 1976-77, 3/ 5.2 Pricing of NP and NPK Complex Fertilizers: Unlike the manufacturers of urea, AS, and CAN, the producers of NP and NPK complex fertilizers enjoyed the freedom of marketing and pricing their products till March 1976. However, they had to consider the prices fixed by the Central Fertilizer Pool for similar imported materials which were freely available. The Pool prices were generally fixed by taking into account the cost of imported fertilizers as well as the cost of indigenously produced fertilizers. Table 5.11 indicates the prices of different NP-and NPK complex fertilizers, Generally, the prices have increased over time, although a downward trend is perceptible after June 1974, when the prices of all fertilizers climaxed. The retail prices of indigenously produced complex fertilizers are generally higher compared to the prices of the imported fertilizers before March 1976. 1/ Preliminary econometric estimates have revealed short-run and long-run price elasticity for nitrogen as 0.40 and 1.85. 2/ See Table 5.9. 3/ For details, see section 3.1. - 55 - In March 1976, the Government of India introduced a price sub- sidy of Rs. 1,250 per ton of P 05 on indigenously produced phosphates to stimulate their,consumption. Uonsequently, the manufacturers of complex fertilizers cannot' increase the prices of complex fertilizers without prior approval of the Government, so that the benefit of lower input costs can be transferred to the farmers. Table 5.12'indicates the nutrientwise prices of different fer- tilizers through various fertilizer products. Among straight fertilizers, urea and SSP provide the minimum cost of nitrogenous and phosphatic fer- tilizers. Among complex fertilizers, the price of one kilogram of P 0 2 5 varies very widely among different products. In April, 1976, the price of one kilbgram .of P-0 was Rs 3.12 from DAP (18-46-0) and Rs. 7.77 from NPK complex fertilizer 14--28-14), both,domestically produced. From imported fertilizers, the price'varied between Rs. 3.32 from DAP (18-46-0) and Rs. 7.19-from.NPK complex (19-20-0). An effort should be made to smoothen out these differences, so that the'price per unit of nutrient (P 0 ) is more or less equal'from different products. 25 5.3 Pricing of Phosphatic Fertilizers The 'Central Phosphate Pool,' established in 1948, imported as well as acquired the domestically produced superphosphates, and distributed them to the farmers at a reasonable price between 1948 and 1952. The price paid to the manufacturers was based on a formula established by the Indian Tariff Board reflecting. the changes in the prices of rock phosphate and sulphur, the two major raw.materials for superphosphate. Although the Pool was disbanded in 1952, and the domestic manufacturers were free to market their products, the Government continued to fix the superphosphate prices using the formula suggested by the Tariff Commission in 1951. In May 1966, the Government discontinued .and handed over this job to the Fertilizer Association of India. Since then, the Fertilizer Association of India has been fixing the superphosphate prices by using the Tariff Commission's formula: Psp = 180 + 0.6 (Pr - 110) + 0.134 (Ps -180) + (Pj - 21), where Psp = price of one ton:of-superphosphate Pr = Ex-works price of one ton of rockphosphate Ps = Ex-works price of one ton of sulphur Pj. = Ex-works price of alkathene-lined jute bags for packing of one ton of superphosphate. The constant, 180, represents the base ex-works price of one ton of super- phosphate for all manufacturing units situated within 100 miles of ports. The,coefficients1in.the formula indicate the prevailing prices of raw materials and the quantity of each that went into production of one ton of superphosphate. :56 - In February 1974, the constant,- 180, in the above formula was increased to 220 to compensate for the general increase in prices. The superphosphate prices increased continuously but moderately from Rs. 177.16 in March 1960, to Rs. 266.88 per ton in August, 1966. These increases were mostly due to increases in the rockphosphate and sulphur prices (Table 5.13). After a modest fall in October 1966, the superphosphate prices increased to Rs. 272.95 per ton in January 1967, and fluctuated between Rs. 272.95 and Rs. 353.00 during 1967 and 1973 period. In January 1974, the superphosphate price increased to Rs. 385 per.ton and continued to move upward rapidly thereafter, till-October 1975. During January 1974 and September 1975, the price of superphosphate increased, by 77%. Although a moderate decrease took place in the price of superphosphate in October,1975, yet it remained significantly higher than what it was in December 1973. Since the higher prices of superphosphates were depressing the consumption of phosphatic fertilizers, the Government.of India introduced a subsidy of Rs. 1,250 per ton of P205 in March 1976, ammounting to Rs. 200 per ton of. 16% WS superphosphate. This subsidy helped reduce the prices of phosphatic ferti- lizers in general and that of superphosphate in particular. Since most of the triple superphosphate is imported, price of TSP was relatively higher at Rs. 2,600 per ton in March 1978. The TSP price has more than doubled between 1971 and 1974 and nearly tripled during 1968-74 (Table 5.13). 5.4 Pricing of Potassic Fertilizers: Muriate of Potash (MOP) and Sulphate of Potash (SOP), the two major sources of potassic fertilizers in India, are imported by the Minerals and Metals Trading Corporation of India,. and are distributed by the Indian Potash Limited, Madras. The retail prices of MOP and SOP are fixed by the Government, although not statutorily. Between 1960 and 1970, the price of MOP (60% K20) fluctuated between Rs. 273 and Rs. 483, whereas that of 50% K20 MOP varied between Rs. 220 and Rs. 463 per ton (Table 5.14). After 1971, India had been. importing 61% K20 MOP whose retail price increased from Rs. 543 in March 1972 to Rs. 1,220 in June 1974-a 125 percent increase.. Against this, the MOP prices increased only by 4% during 1969 to 1972 period. Similarly, the SOP prices increased slowly before 1972 and nearly doubled between 1972 and 1974. Like the higher prices of nitrogenous and phosphatic fertilizers, the increased prices of MOP and SOP reduced the consumption of potassic fertilizers by 25% between 1973-74 and 1975-76. To prevent the further decreases, and to stimulate the consumption of potassic fertilizers in order to achieve a better balance between N, P, and K, the Government of India decreased the MOP and SOP prices in July 1975, March 1976 and February 1977. At present, the retail price of MOP is Rs. 805 per ton while that of SOP is Rs. 140 per ton. - 57 - 5.5 Prices of Fertilizer Raw Materials: Prices of raw materials, inter alia, play an important role in determining the prices of final products. An increase in the price of raw material, ceteris paribus, will lead to an increase in the product price. Table 5.15 indicates the prices of naphtha, furnace oil, rock phos- phate and sulphur (imported as well as indigenous) during 1970-76 period. Before June, 1970, the price of naphtha was Rs. 104.70 per ton at Calcutta port. Between June 1970 and June 1974, the price of naphtha nearly quad- rupled - from Rs. 129.20 on June 1, 1970 to Rs. 501.36 on June 1, 1974. In September 1975, the price of naphtha was further increased by Rs. 110.0 per ton, thereby increasing the current price of naphtha to Rs. 611.36 per ton. A similar trend is noticeable in the price of furnace oil and imported rock as well as sulphur. That is, the prices prevailing after June 1974 are two-to-three time higher compared to those prevailing before June 1974. Unlike the price of naphtha, prices of Jordan (70/72% BPL) rockphos- phate and sulphur have decreased significatnly after April 1976, perhaps, due to an increased supply of these two products in the world market. In April- December 1977, the price of Jordan rockphosphate was Rs. 415 per ton. Prices of Florida, Morocco and Senegal rockphosphate also decreased considerably during 1975-76 and 1976-77 period. Although the price of Udaipur rockphosphate also increased in June 1974, the magnitude of increase was much smaller compared to imported rocks. The price of Udaipur rockphosphate was Rs. 300 per ton in March 1978. 5.6 The Marathe Committee Report, 1976: The pricing policy of the Government of India is based on the recommendations of the Sivaraman Committee on Fertilizers, 1965. Since the consumption, production and marketing of fertilizers have changed signifi- cantly during the last 12 years, a need was felt by both the industry as well as by the government to critically evaluate the existing methods of price determination of fertilizer products. Hence a Committee headed by Mr. S. S. Marathe, Secretary, Department of Industrial Development, was appointed in January 1976 to evaluate the pricing methods for different fertilizer pro- ducts. The Committee has submitted its interim report to Government on the pricing policy for urea, ammonium sulphate and calcium ammonium nitrate in July 1977. The Government of India announced a new fertilizer price policy in November 1977, under which a maximum retail price, a maximum ex-factory delivery price (applicable to all units), and a fair ex-factory retention price (for each unit producing urea, AS and CAN) were established. The individual ex-factory retention prices were calculated by the Marathe Com- mittee in such a way that a post-tax return of 12% on net worth was assured (after deducting the expenses on raw materials, utilities, maintenance and - 58 - other costs) on the assumption that the factory utilized 80% of its installed capacity. The difference between the maximum ex-factory price and the individual ex-factory retention price would be credited/debited to the Fertilizer Price Fund Account administered by the Fertilizer Industry Coordination Committee. The maximum ex-factory price of Rs. 1,158 per ton of urea was arrived at by the Marathe Committee by deducting the excise duty (Rs. 174), the Fertilizer Pool Equation Charge (Rs. 65), the equated freight charge (Rs. 38) and the dealers margin (Rs. 115) from the statutorily fixed maximum retail price of Rs. 1,550 per ton of urea. This price will be effective between November 1, 1977 and March 1, 1979 (see 5.16). The ex-factory retention prices for various units producing urea, AS and CAN are indicated in Table 5.17. Of 21 units producing urea, only 2 units, viz., IFFCO, and GSFC, have retention prices lower than the maximum ex-factory.price of Rs. 1,158. All other units have significantly higher retention prices, and therefore, the production of urea will remain highly subsidized till March 1979. The maximum ex-factory prices for ammonium sulphate and calcium ammonium nitrate are fixed at Rs. 625 and Rs. 686 per ton repectively. The retention prices for six steel plants, producing ammonium sulphate using by-product coke-oven-gas as feedstock are identical to the maximum ex- factory price of A.S. Hence these plants would not need any subsidy from the Fertilizer Price Fund Account. The Sindri, Namrup, Ennore, Cochin (FACT) and Baroda plants will be subsidized by a margin of Rs. 194. Similarly, the production of CAN will also be subsidized. 6.0 Distribution of Fertilizer Products In the late forties and early fifties, The Central Fertilizer Pool distributed the fertilizer products to the State Governments and the Commodity Boards. The State Governments generally used the services of the cooperatives as well as the Department of Agriculture to distribute the fertilizers among the cultivators. During the First Five Year Plan, the Planning Commission recommended that the State Governments should utilize the services of coopera- tives to distribute fertilizers. The National Cooperative Development and Warehousing Board in 1957, the Working Group of the National Development Council in 1958, and the Nala- garh Committee in 1958, further stressed the near monopoly role for the co- operatives in the field of fertilizer distribution. Although the Central Gov- ernment always advised the State Governments to use the services of the co- operatives, the success of the cooperative sector in distributing the ferti- lizers varied from state to state. In Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Mysore (Karnataka), Orissa, Punjab and Rajasthan, the cooperatives enjoyed a monopoly position in fertilizer distribution. Uttar - 59 - Pradesh continued to maintain government agencies in addition to cooperatives. In Asam, the fertilizer distribution was entrusted entirely to private traders whereas in Kerala, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal, private trade and cooperatives functioned side by side. In Himachal Pradesh, the State Government controlled the distribution of fertilizers through its own distribution centers. The Fertilizer Distribution Enquiry Committe, 1959-60 and the Sivaraman Committee, 1965 studied the fertilizer distribution patterns pre- vailing in the fifties and early sixties, and recommended that private trade should be allowed to distribute fertilizers, and the indigenous manufacturers should have the 'freedom of marketing' their own products. Gradually, the Government allowed the private traders through the licensing system to dis- tribute fertilizers. This policy toned down the monopoly of cooperatives. In 1969, the Governmenl replaced the cumbersome licensing procedures by a simple registration system. This change encouraged the private manufactures to develop their own distribution channels, and resulted into increased num- ber of retail networks. By 1971, the number of private retail selling points increased to 51,000 as against 33,000 in 1968-69. The pattern, which emerged after The New Fertilizer Policy in 1966, was such that the imported fertilizers were distributed solely by the coopera- tives while the indigenous manufacturers distributed their products through cooperatives as well as private trade depending on their relative efficiency and effectiveness in a given area. During 1966 to 1968 period when there was a slump in demand, compared to available supply, the Government allowed the private traders to distribute imported fertilizers. But, once the shortages were experienced, the Government reserved the distribution of the imported fertilizers for the cooperatives alone. With limitecl availability of imported fertilizers, the Central Government and State Governments asked the private manufacturers to increase the share of cooperatives in fertilizer distribution. Furthermore, the State Governments also argued that adultera- tion and other malpractices by unscrupulous elements can only be effectively checked if the cooperatives distribute a larger share of indigenous ferti- lizers as well. The indigenous manufacturers disagreed with the State Gov- ernments. Also, there was a disagreement between the manufacturers and cooperatives about the distribution margins recommended by the National Com- mission on Agriculture. To resolve these differences, a Committee, headed by Mr. M.A. Quraishi, Secretary, Department of Cooperation, was appointed in 1972. The Committee recommended: (i) The share of cooperative and public agencies might not be less than 50 percent and may range up to 75 percent; the exact share around 50% must be negotiated between manufacturers and state cooperatives; (ii) The percentage share should not be fixed statutorily; (iii) Where the percentage share of institutional agencies is already above 50%, it would not be reduced; - 60 - (iv) The existing agreements between the manufacturers and their dealers, approved by the Government, would not get affected by these recommendations. The Quraishi Committee also recommended that the distribution mar- gins should be increased from Rs. 80.0 to Rs. 95.0 per ton of urea (Table 6.1). The enhanced margin will, however, be applicable only if the selling price of urea was increased by the Government. The National Commission on Agriculture recommended a margin of Rs. 122.40. The current distribution margins for urea, ammonium sulphate and calcium ammonium nitrate are, respectively, Rs. 115.0, Rs. 75.0 and Rs. 70.0 (Table 6.2). The Government has not indicated the detailed break-up of these margins. Figure 6.1 indicates the present fertilizer distribution network. The Central Fertilizer Pool distributes the imported nitrogenous and complex fertilizers to Commodity Boards and State Governments. The State Governments use the services of the apex cooperative marketing societies, agro-industries corporations, agricultural supply organizations (of the State Department of Agriculture), mixture manufacturers and private distributors to distribute fertilizers among wholesalers. However, not all the states use all these agencies. States in the north, central, and west zones rely heavily on the cooperatives while those in the south and east use predominantly private distributors to distribute fertilizers among wholesalers. The cooperative and private wholesalers supply fertilizers to the cooperative and private retailers, who in turn, sell them to the farmers. The domestic manufacturers and the Indian Potash Ltd. also use the services of the cooperatives as well as private wholesalers and retailers to distribute the fertilizers. In some cases, the manufacturers have opened their own depots at the block/mandi levels and sell the fertilizers directly to the farmers. Likewise, some of the state governments, like Uttar Pradesh and Himachal Pradesh, sell ferti- lizers to the farmers through the Department of Agriculture depots along with cooperatives and private traders. 6.1 Dealers The cooperatives have historically occupied a dominant place in fertilizer distribution in the past. Prior to October 1966, when the new fertilizer policy was enunciated, the Central Fertilizer Pool distributed all nitrogenous fertilizers through cooperatives. The private retailers handled only superphosphate, mixtures and domestically produced complex fertilizers. In 1966-67, there were 48,031 cooperative retail sale points for the distribution of fertilizers. As the manufacturers developed their own distribution channels under the "freedom of marketing" principle of the New Fertilizer Policy of 1965, the number of cooperative retail sale points decreased to 30,670 in 1970-71 as against 48,031 in 1966-67. On the other hand, the number of private retail sale points increased from approximately 33,000 in 1968-69 to 51,000 in 1970-71 (Table '6.5). IMrCYi7D ehCIL1SM IDI CC. U3 FERUT LI S I.'I Tl ';.C ::S AID C'D IJPCWLD ?CrriAs:C F]J1L1ISZRS V~~~~~~~~~~~V I ' 4 4 -44. ..,IH- .. . i.A AP.7 CZ,... -.Al': ... GOIIDTF 9mI.R. 5tIjl. OH l,k7;A>C K AMYi.r.:C OI. IES COWOAN* FVX*FACI-1PE9DlT;EOC I ' { i 4 DIS.:::~~~~~~~~~~~V-rE.l: .r;29M OFAL M B.-All. CC<:p EhAl VH | | PETA 1. | P hlV A"'g | FgSOCuIES 61 FDeLErtilize D itb ution I F Ch Figure 6.1: Fertilizer Distribution Channels - 62- '~~~~~~~~~~~~~2 _6 G- r 3r ~ ~~~~~~ IT! @t c OTLR 55 CW 105 tr 4g / _/4 ~~~~R 961 CR 2 S63 N ASAINI Xi . R 175 c CW? 74CW * *OTA W2l , CWR 1091 PW 1 7 sr \ >r4 KI"AC ' - oJ ~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~pl* 9-5 PR 232 \ i , °f~~~~~~~PADSK g 1186 .R 2006 CIRV 5 7 7 C wR !OTAI W .155 I \ TOTAR- O T L W } _ twos S 2 Zt17 j c 2 829 -2 -.- L | | // \__J ~~~~~~~PPR 499 )' ! KAL W _ f ^\ -' ' - ,_/ ~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~PW -9 CW -9 It_ 9 r? e F~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ R 25 .b- '10 i W d TT^ 2 > 5 ' t' ' OhSSI < PR Sl 794- PR 3 tTC',AL W 513 ,^^ ' ' ^>t ,/ PR 1247 OTAL. 195 A f7 _ \ - .. ace F"OEZ > t 6'~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~. 24' ~ ~ x> til1AJII A PCW '86{ 8 C RS 32 29 Z R 29L,2VIS 2Ez C l 'CtAL WR 49625 . _> 4 w C8CPER4TIVE TOTLWWH4C5ES J A 39 \ CW _ tEP~~~~~~~m SU C W 6 TWWOTEALE. _TTAL W 50\8TTI Sj3 *I| .e \ R Z-54 g J R 6042 4 S * 1b~~~~~~~~4 6 72~~~~~~C 36 29 EV 64 23- 22 Figure~~~~~~~~~P 6.2 Esiae aubro hlsl n ealfriie elr Qtatwise& Chnnelise - 63 - The Fertilizer Association of India conducted an extensive survey of the marketing and distribution facilities in the country. According to survey estimates, there were 6,058 wholesale and 56,867 retail outlets in 1969-70. Of these, 56% outlets belonged to the cooperative sector, and 44 percent to the private sector (Table 6.3). Of all the dealers, south zone accounted for approximately 29% and east zone for 23%. North and west zone, each accounted for nearly 14% of the total outlets, leaving about one-fifth of the outlets for the central zone. Central, north and west: zones had predominantly cooperative outlets while the private retail outlets dominated in the south as well as east zones. The spread of private retaLl net-work in the south and east zones is, perhaps, due to the existence of private manufacturers like EID-Parry, and early users of plantation boards. At the state level, Tamil Nadu had the maximum number of retail outlets, followed by Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Karnataka and Maharashtra. These five states accounted for approximately 44% of the total retail outlets in the country. The cooperative sector accounted for more than 80% of the retail outlets in Punjab, Madhya Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, Bihar, Haryana, Delhi, Rajasthan, Gujarat, and Jammu and Kashmir (Table 6.4). On the other hand, Assam, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh had predominantly private retailers. Punjab had the maximum number of cooperative retailers as against West Bengal's highest private retailers. 6.2 Location and Market Coverage The cooperative and private retailers as well as wholesalers have shown marked differences, at the state level, in locating their sale depots. In most states, the cooperative wholesalers were concentrated at the block or village-mandi level while the retailers were located in the interior mar- kets, mainly at the village level. However, in some states like Maharashtra, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh and Punjab, the cooperative wholesalers operated from the district headquarters too. The private wholesalers, like their cooperative counterparts, pre- ferred blocks or village-mandis as their headquarters. In Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Punjab, the private wholesalers were mostly concen- trated at the district: level. The private retailers, unlike their cooperative counterparts, were mostly concentrated at the village/mandi, and in some cases, at the block levels. Since many of- the villages are located quite far from the mandis/ blocks, in the isolated areas, the private retailers were less accessible to an average farmer compared to the cooperative retailers. The preference of the private retailers at the mandi/block level might have been dictated by the Smithian and Schumpeterian considerations, viz., size of market. Since the mandis and block headquarters are generally market centers, where the - 64 - farmers come to sell their agricultural produce, and to buy non-agricultural products, a private retailer can expect to have a reasonably good demand for his products, viz., fertilizers, assuring an adequate return on his invested capital. However, there are Sayian considerations too. That is, supply creates its own demand. If the retailers go to interior villages, and dif- fuse the fertilizers among the farmers through adequate sale efforts, they can create demand for their products, viz, fertilizers. Furthermore, nearly three-fourths of the district in India consume very minimal amount of fer- tilizers. Hence, the private, as well as cooperative retailers must diffuse to interior rural areas in order to enhance fertilizer consumption in India. The market coverage of these retail outlets appears very inadequate. There were 576 thousand villages and 56,867 retail outlets in 1969-70, thereby giving a ratio of approximately 10 villages per retail outlet. In practice, each retail outlet was serving between 2 and 50 villages. Thus, many blocks, and villages therein, did not have any facilities for supplying fertilizers to the farmers. In 1975-76, the number of sale points increased to 94,623. Assuming that nearly 10 percent of these outlets were wholesalers, we are left with nearly 85,000 retailers to serve the farming community, implying a ratio of nearly 7.0 villages per retail outlet. Although the average number of vil- lages served by a retailer has decreased nearly by one-third, yet this ratio is very high to effectively cover the entire farming population in India. Moreover, the distribution of these retail outlets is very uneven. The Government has set a target of having a retail point within 5 miles radius of every village in the country. This will imply a mean density of four villages for every retailer. Hence, the industry and the Government should make every effort to promote fertilizer use by expanding the sale points into the remote areas of the country. The cooperatives must also diffuse to the isolated villages. 6.3 Fertilizer Promotion Programs. In order to arrest the further decrease in fertilizer consumption due to price increases of June 1974, the Government of India not only reduced the fertilizer prices, but also selected 58 districts in Rabi 1976-77 to promote the use of fertilizer consumption. Although these districts were well-endowed with irrigation facilities, the level of fertilizer use was rather low. Under the Intensive Fertilizer Promotion Campaign, 58 districts scattered all over the country were selected, and the extension workers were deputed to work with farmers to promote fertilizer use. As a result of con- centrated efforts in guiding and training the farmers for fertilizer use, the fertilizer consumption in these districts increased significantly. The fertilizer consumption in IFPC districts, taken together, increased by 26.5% in Kharif 1976 compared to Kharif 1975 as against 18% increase for all-India (Table 6.7). Although entire additional 8.5% percentage points cannot be attributed to promotion efforts, a significant proportion of this must be due to these promotional efforts. The success achieved by the Indo-German - 65 - Fertilizer Educational Project 1/ in 11 districts of West Bengal further indicates the importance of educational and training efforts in promoting and accelerating the consumption of fertilizer nutrients. The FCI, IFFCO and other manufacturers have also started their own promotion programs by selecting a few districts and/or a few villages in a districts, and training the farmers about the use, and benefits of chemical fertilizers. Under its village adoption program, the IFFCO unit adopted 178 villages in 1978. 2/ Under this program, the villagers are not only given lessons about "balanced nutrients" and package of "improved practices" but also arrangements are made for adequate and timely supply of fertilizer, improved seeds, and credit. Also, the IFFCO representatives try to coordinate the activities of different professionals engaged in rural development programs. The use of fertilizer nutrients, improved seeds and cooperative credit has increased significantly in the adopted villages. For example, the fertilizer consumption in Jharbalapura village of Bundi district (Rajasthan) was 2322 kgs on a cultivated land of 705 hectares, with 73% of it being irrigated. In July 1973, the village was adopted as an "IFFCO Village." As a result of the adoption of village and implementation of balanced fertilization program, area under high-yielding varieties of paddy and wheat increased, respectively, from 24 and 259 hectares in 1972-73 to 132 and 305 hectares in 1976-77, whereas fertilizer consumption increased from 3,322 kgs in 1972-73 tc 19,302 kgs in 1976-77. 3/ As other adopted villages have experienced similar successes, the village adoption program should be extended to other remaining villages in order to promote fertilizer use and agricultural output. 6.4 Transportation of Fertilizers: The RITES Study: 4/ As the demand for fertilizer nutrients accelerates in the country- side of India, the transportation of fertilizer products from the factories and ports to the farmers in villages acquires significance. The distribution of fertilizer nutrients involves three phases, viz., primary, secondary and tertiary. In the primary phase, the fertilizer products are shipped from factories to warehouses (mostly at the district headquarters), whereas the secondary phase consists of moving the fertilizers from warehouses to dealers. Approximately 80% of the primary, and 30% of the secondary movement of fer- tilizer-products is handled by railways. The transportation of fertilizer from the dealers to the farmers is called the tertiary movement, which is mostly handled by roadways. The transportation cost constitut:es nearly one-third of the total distribution costs (see Table 6.8). 1/ See NCAER, an Appraisal of Indo-German Fertilizer Educational Project, 1978. 2/ See IFFCO, Village Adoption Program, 1978. 3/ Ibid. 4/ Rail India Transport and Economic Services, Ltd., Fertilizer and Raw Material Transportation in India: An Optimization Study, Vols. I, II and III, New Delhi, 1978. - 66 - Railways play an important role in the transportation of fertilizer products in India. Approximately, 80% of the imported, and 75% to 80% of the indigenously manufactured fertilizers are moved by the railways. In 1975-76, railways moved 7.2 million tons of fertilizer products and are anticipated to move 13 million tons in 1978-79 (see Table 6.9). Between 1973-74 and 1975-76, the rail coefficient of fertilizer traffic 1/ varied between 2.9 and 3.6. Assuming an average coefficient of 3.0, the expected rail traffic would be around 23 million tons in 1983-84 and 33 million tons in 1988-89. Along with increase in fertilizer traffic, average lead has increased from 675 kilometers to 859 kilometers and the trans-shipment of products increased from 1.02 million tons to 1.53 million tons during 1966-67 to 1975-76 period. 2/ Both of these factors contribute significantly towards the cost of transportation. It has been estimated that each trans-shipment costs 11.26 paise per ton while the average cost per ton kilometer is around 6.7 paise on broad guage and 9.45 paise on meter gauge. The RITES study indicates that 'average lead' can be reduced to 507 kms., along with a significant reduction in transshipments, by following their rationalized distribution plan. Under this Plan, 139 nodal points are selected by con- sidering the level of consumption and irrigation potential in the surrounding villages, transportation accessibility (like on the rail-head), warehousing facilities and administrative infrastructure at the nodal point, inter-nodal distances, and location of mixing or granulation plants. Districts are allocated to these nodal points and consumption forecasts for 1978-79 are derived at each nodal point. 3/ Given the consumption forecasts, a linear programming model is used to assign these 139 nodal points to different fertilizer plants and/or ports in such a way that the total cost of meeting the fertilizer demand at all nodal points is minimum. Table 6.9 indicates the Rationalized Distribution Plan. The study suggests to use product- exchange among producers so that criss-crossing of fertilizers can be reduced. Also, roads, as against railways, should be used for a distance of less than 100 kms. The study predicts a severe transportation problem in Western India as the existing railway capacity is nearly saturated, while new fertilizer plants are being built there to take advantage of natural gas available from the Bombay High and Cambay basins. 1/ Ratio of fertilizer products in tons to consumption of fertilizer nutrients in tons. 2/ See RITES, op cit, pp. VIII/2,8. 3/ The RITES study used the FAI's quadratic projections for each state and apportioned them among districts on the basis of a three-year average of a district's share in State's total consumption. - 67 - The implementation of the RITES plan requires the creation of a Central Marketing Authority to supervise the activities of manufacturers in in order to restrict them to their assigned nodal points. This acts against the 'freedom of marketing' principle enunciated earlier. However, the results of the study should be useful in promoting voluntary product-exchange among the manufacturers as well as in building additional capacities for transport- ing fertilizers. Annex A Statistical Tables LIST OF TABLES 1.1 India: Important Socio-economic Characteristics 1.2 World: Area and Population 1.3 India: Net Domestic Product at Factor Cost Originating in Agriculture, 1961-74 (at current prices) 1.4 India: Est:Lmated Public Sector Outlay on Rural Development 1.5 India: Plan Outlays by Sectors 2.1 India: Salient Features of Indian Agriculture 2.2 India: Distribution of Annual Rainfall 2.3 India: Index Numbers of Agricultural Production 2.4 India: Production of Foodgrains 2.5 India: Plan Expenditures in Agriculture 2.6 India: Plan Targets in Agriculture 2.7 India: Size Distribution of Agricultural Holding 2.8 India: Cropping Intensity and Irrigation by Size of Holding, 1970-71 2.9 India: Fertilizer Use by Holding Size, 1975-76 2.10 World: Size of Holding, Fertilizer Consumption and Yield 1974-75 2.11 Levels of Agricultural Development in India at the District Level for the Triennium 1970-71 to 1972-73 2.12 Growth of Agricultural Output in India at the District Level Between the Trienniums 1962-63/1964-65 to 1970-71/1972-73 3.1 India: Fertilizer Sector - Important Indicators 3.2 India: Fertilizer Nutrient Consumption 3.3 India: Grovwth Rates of Fertilizer Consumption 3.4 India: Zonewise Consumption of Fertilizers, 1969-78 3.5 India: Zonewise Consumption of Fertilizers, 1969-78 (percentage distribution) 3.5A India: Statewise Consumption of Fertilizers,1967-68 to 1976-77 2 3.6 India: Statewise Share of Gross Cropped Area and Fertilizer Consumption, 1970-71 and 1977-78 3.7 India: District-wise Fertilizer Consumption, 1974-75 3.8 India: Fertilizer Consumption per Hectare of Cropped Land 3.8A. World: Fertilizer Consumption per Hectare of Agricultural Land, 1975-76 and 1976-77 3.9 India: Statewise Consumption of Plan Nutrients per Hectare of of Gross Cropped Area, 1975-76 and 1976-77. 3.9A India: Statewise Fertilizer Consumption on Fertilized Land, 1975-76 3.10 India: Seasonwise Consumption of Fertilizers 3.11 India: Fertilizer Consumption by Crops and States, 1975-76 3.12 India: N:P:K: Ratio in Fertilizer Consumption, 1952-53 to 1977-78 3.13 India: Statewise Nutrient (N:P:K:) Consumption Ratio, 1975-76 and 1976-77 3.15 India: Fertilizer Consumption Forecasts, 1978-79 3.16 India: Coefficients of Regressions of the Donde-Brown Study 3.17 India: The Donde-Brown Projections of Demand for Fertilizers 3.18 India: Statewise Donde-Brown Projections of N and P 205 and Actuals, 1973-74 3:18A India: Projections of Fertilizer Demand by Planning Commission, and the Minsitry of Agriculture 3.19 India: The Parikh-Srinivasan Optimum Requirement of Fertilizers 3.20 India: The NCA Estimates of Future Demand for Fertilizers 3.21 India: Removal of Nutrients by Foodgrain and Non-foodgrain Crops: Actual and Projected 3.22 India: Estimated Fertilizer Requirement by 1978-79 3.23 India: The FAI Estimates of Demand for Fertilizers Based on Quadratic Specification 3.24 India: Statewise Forecasts for Fertilizer Nutrients, 1978-79 to 1988-89 4.1 India: Licensed Capacity of Fertilizers - Material-wise and Nutrient-wise, 1950-77 3 4.2 India: Share of Fertilizer Capacity under Various Stages of Implementation - Material-wise 4.3 India: Share of Fertilizer Capacity Under Various Stages of Implementation - Nutrient-wise and Sector-wise 4.4 India: Statewise Licensed Capacity of Fertilizers, 1978 4.5 India: Statewise Licensed Capacity of Fertilizers (percentage distribution), 1978 4.6 India: Statewise Fertilizer Factories, 1978 4.7 India: Capacity Utilization in Fertilizer Industry, 1972-73 to 1976-77 4.8 India: Production and Capacity Utilization of Nitrogen 4.9 India: Capacity Utilization in Phosphates 4.10 India: Factors Causing Loss in Production of Nitrogen, 1972-73 to 1976-77 4.12 India: Chronology of Fertilizer Manufacture 4.13 India: Fertilizer Nutrient Production 4.14 India: Rate of Growth of Nitrogenous and Phosphatic Fertilizer, 19.52-53 to 1977-78 4.15 India: Rate of Growth of Production of Nitrogenous and Phosphatic Fertilizers, 1961-62 to 1977-78 4.16 India: Statewise Production of Nitrogenous and Phosphatic Fertilizers 4.17 India: Zonewise Production of Fertilizer Nutrients (percentage distribution) 4.18 India: Product Composition of Nitrogenous Fertilizers 4.19 India: Product Composition of Phosphatic Fertilizers 4.20 India: Installed Capacity of Nitrogenous Fertilizers according to Sources of Feedstock 4.21 India: Capacity of Phosphate and the Raw Materials 4.22 India: Production of Raw Materials Used in Fertilizer Industry 4.23 India: Production of Rock Phosphate and Sulphur, 1969-70 to 1976-77 4.24 India: Rock Phosphate Resources 4 4.25 India: Consumption of Raw Materials in Fertilizer Industry 4.26 India: Fertilizer Imports 4.27 India: Import of Nitrogenous Fertilizers 4.28 India: Import of Phosphatic and Complex Fertilizers 4.29 India: Import of Potassic Fertilizers 4.30 India: Import of Fertilizer Materials, 1967-68 to 1976-77 4.31 India: Ratio of Production and Imports to Total Consumption 4.32 India: Consumption, Production, Imports, and Excess Supply of Nitrogenous Fertilizers. 4.33 India: Consumption, Production, Imports and Excess Supply of Phosphatic Fertilizers 4.34A India: Expected Production of 'N' from Operating Units and Firm Projects 4.34B India: Nitrogen Capacity Planning for 100% Self-Sufficiency 4.34C India: Summary of Demand and Supply at 100% Self-Sufficiency 4.35A India: Expected Production of P 205 4.35B India: Capacity Planning for 100% Self-Sufficiency in P205 4.35C India: Summary of Supply and Demand at 100% Self-Suffiency 4.36 India: Import of Rockphosphate and Sulphur 5.1 India: Current Prices of Fertilizers in Terms of Nutrients 5.2 India: Price of Ammonium Sulphate, 1944-57 5.3 India: Price of Ammonium Sulphate, 1957-77 5.4 India: Price of Urea, 1952 to 1977 5.5 India: Price of Calcium Ammonium Nitrate, 1954-77 5.6 India: Price of Ammonium Sulphate Nitrate, 1955-75 5.7 India: Price of Ammonium Chloride, 1962-77 5.8 India: Proportion of Indigenously Produced Nitrogenous Fertilizers Acquired by the Central Fertilizer Pool, 1965-70 5.9 India: The Fertilizer Pool Equalization Charge, 1974-77 5.10 India: Production, Distribution and Imports of Fertilizers, 1973-74 and 1974-75 5 5.11 India: Prices of NP and NPK Complex Fertilizers 5.12 India: Nutrient-wise Fertilizer Prices 5.13 India: Super Phosphate Prices 5.14 India: Potassic Fertilizers Prices 5.15 India: Prices of Fertilizer Raw Materials 5.16 India: The Break-up of the Maximum Retail Price of Urea 5.17 India: Ex-factory Retention Prices 6.1 India: Distribution Margins for Urea 6.2 India: Break-up of Margins Recommended by the Quraishi Committee 6.3 India: Estimated Number of Dealers - Zonewise and Statewise, 1969-70 6.4 India: Cooperative and Private Distributors, 1969-70 6.5 India: Nunmber of Sale Points, 1969-77 6.6 India: Statewise Distribution of Sale Points, 1976-77 6.7 India: Achievements in IFPC Districts 6.8 India: Share of Transportation Cost in Distribution Costs 6.9 India: Transport of Fertilizer Products by Railways 6.10 India: Rationalized Distribution Plan, 1978-79 A.1 Table 1.1 India: Important Socioeconomic Characteristics Variable Unit m Year Quantity 1. Area million 1971 3.3 sq.km 2. Population millions 1971 548.0 3. Population dens:ity number 1971 177.0 4. Rate of populat:Lon growth % 1961-71 2.2 5. Urban population % 1971 19.9 6. Rural population X 1971 80.1 7. Literacy % 1971 29.5 8. Working population millions 1971 180.4 9. Ratio of working to total population % 1971 32.9 10. Proportion of working population engaged in agriculture % 1971 69.7 11. Net national product (at current Rs. l prices) billion 1973-74 491.5 12. Per capita income (at current prices) U.S.$ 1975 150.0 13. Rate of growth of NNP (at 1960-61 prices) % 1961-74 3.3 14. Rate of growth of per capita NNP (at 1960-61 prices) % !1961-74 1.1 15. Proportion of NDP originating in agriculture % .1973-74 49.5 116. Proportion of NDP originating in manufacturing, construction and utilities % 1973-74 18.8 I I . i~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~___________________________________________________ A.2 Table 1.2 World - Area and Population, 1969 Country Population Area Densities (million) __('000 km) 1. Australia 12.3 7,687 2 2. Burma 6.7 181 37 3. Brazil 90.8 8,512 11 4. Canada 21.1 9,976 2 5. Ceylon (Sri Lanka) 12.2 | 66 187 6. China (Mainland) 740.0 9,561 77 7. France 50.3 547 92 8. Germany (F.R.) 58.7 t 248 237 9. India 537.0 3,268 167 10. Indonesia 116.0 1,492 78 11. Japan 102.3 370 277 12. Malaysia 10.6 333 32 13. Mexico 48.9 1,973 25 14. Nigeria 64.6 924 70 15. Pakistan 111.8 I 947 118 16. Philippines 37.2 | 300 124 17. U.A.R. 32.5 1 1,001 32 18. U.K. 55.5 244 228 19. U.S.A. 203.2 9,363 22 20. U.S.S.R. 240.6 22,402 11 World 3552.0 135,772 26 * Mid-year estimates. Source: United Nations, Statistical Year Book, 1970. Table 1.5 Plan Outlays by Sectors (KS. crores) First Plan Second Plan Third Plan Annual Fourth Plan Fifth Plan Draft Five (1951-46) (1956-61) (1961-66). (1966-69) (1969-74) (1974-79) Year Plan (1978-83) 1. Agriculture and allied Sectors 290 549 1089 1167 2728 4302 8600 (14.8) (11.7) (12.7) (17.3) (17.2) (11.0) (12.4) 2. Irrigation & Flood 434 430 665 457 1087 4226 9650 Control (22.2) (9.2) (7.8) (6.8) (6.8) (10.7) (13.9) 3. Power '49 452 1252 1182 2448 10219* 20800* (7.6) (9.7) (14.6) (17.5) (15.4) (26.2) (30.0) 4. Village and Small 41 187 241 144 293 510 1410 industries (2.1) (4.0) (2.8) (2.1) (1.8) (1.3) (2.0) 5. Industry and 55 938 1726 1575 3338 6852 8940 minerals (2.8) (20.1) (20.1) (23.3) (21.0) (17.4) (12.9) 6. Transportation and 518 1261 2112 1239 3237 6917 10562 communications (26.4) (27.0) (24.6) (18.3) (20.4) (17.6) (15.3) 7. Soctal Services 993 2771 *6224 9355 (14.7) (17.5 (15.9) (13.5) a. Education and Scientific Research 149 273 660 374 963 1285 1955 (7.6) (5.8) (7.7) (5.5) (6.1) (3.3) (2.8) b. Health and Family 98 216 251 215 749 1179 2095 welfare (5.0) (4.6) (2.9) (3.2) (4.7) (3.0) (3.0) c. Others 225 366 581 404 1059 3760 5305 (11.5) (7.8) (6.8) (6.0) (6.7) (9.6) (7.6) Total 1960 4672 8577 6757 15902 39322 69380 (100.0) (100.0) (100.0) (100.0) (100.0) (100.0) (100.0) * Expenditure on energy, science and technology Source: 1) India: A Reference Annual, 1976 2) Fourth Five Year Plan, 1967-74 3) Draft Five Year Plan, 1978-83 A.6 Table 2.1 India: Salient Features of Indian Agriculture Variable Unit Year Quantity 1. Net area sown m. hectares 1972-73 136.80 2. Total cropped area . 161.53 3. Net irrigated area . 31.95 4. Gross irrigated area . 39.09 5. Ratio of net area sown to total geographical area % 44.70 6. Cropping intensity 2 . 118.00 7. Ratio of net irrigated area to net area sown 2 n 23.40 8. Ratio of gross irrigated area to total cropped area % n 24.20 8a. Proportion of total cropped area devoted to foodgrains 2 1973-74 75.30 9. Foodgrains output m. tons 1977-78 121.0 10. Rate of growth of food- grains output % 1950-75 3.6 11. Rate of growth of agricultural output 2 1950-75 3.1 12. Consumption of fertilizers (per hectare) N kgs 1977-78 17.8 P0 it" 5.3 K2 5 of~~~~~, 3.1 NPK to 26.2 13. Area under high-yielding million 1976-77 34.55 varieties hectare 14. Ratio of area under HYVs to total cropped area 2 1976-77 20.32 15. Villages electrified 2 1976 31.80 16. Gini index of land concentration no. 1970-71 0.62 Sources: Compiled from data in (i) Fertilizer Statistics, 1975-76; (ii) Agricultural Census, 1970-71; (iii) India - A Reference Annual. 1976, (iv) Draft Five Year Plan 1q7R-RI Table 1.5 Plan Outlays by Sectors I.'. cEULej First Plan Second Plan Third Plan Annual Fourth Plan Fifth Plan Draft Five (1951-46) (1956-61) (1961-66). (1966-69) (1969-74) (1974-79) Year Plan (1978-83) 1. Agriculture and allied Sectors 290 549 1089 1167 2728 4302 8600 (14.8) (11.7) (12.7) (17.3) (17.2) (11.0) (12.4) 2. Irrigation 6 Flood 434 430 665 457 1087 4226 9650 Control (22.2) (9.2) (7.8) (6.8) (6.8) (10.7) (13.9) 3. Power 149 452 1252 1182 2448 10219* 20800* (7.6) (9.7) (14.6) (17-5) (15.4) (26.2) (30.0) 4. Village and Small 41 187 241 144 293 510 1410 industries (2.1) (4.0) (2.8) (2.1) (1.8) (1.3) (2.0) 5. Industry and 55 938 1726 1575 3338 6852 8940 minerals (2.8) (20.1) (20.1) (23.3) (21.0) (17.4) (12.9) 6. Transportation and 518 1261 2112 1239 3237 6917 10562 communications (26.4) (27.0) (24.6) (18.3) (20.4) (17.6) (15.3) 7. Social Services 993 2771 6224 9355 (14.7) (17.5 (15.9) (13.5) a. Education and Scientific Research 149 .273 660 374 963 1285 1955 (7.6) (5.8) (7.7) (5.5) (6.1) (3.3) (2.8) b. Health and Family 98 216 251 215 749 1179 2095 welfare (5.0) (4.6) (2.9) (3.2) (4.7) (3.0) (3-0) c. Others 225 366 581 404 1059 3760 5305 (11.5) (7.8) (6.8) (6.0) (6.7) (9.6) (7.6) Total 1960 4672 8577 6757 15902 39322 69380 (100.0) (100.0) (100.0) (100.0) (100.0) (100.0) (100.0) * Expenditure on energy, science and technology Source: 1) India: A Reference Annual, 1976 2) Fourth Five Year Plan, 1967-74 3) Draft Five Year Plan, 1978-83 A.6 Table 2.1 India: Salient Features of Indian Agriculture Variable Unit Year Quantity 1. Net area sown m. hectares 1972-73 136.80 2. Total cropped area . of 161.53 3. Net irrigated area it of 31.95 4. Gross irrigated area . of 39.09 5. Ratio of net area sown to total geographical area % . 44.70 6. Cropping intensity % it 118.00 7. Ratio of net irrigated area to net area sown % 23.40 8. Ratio of gross irrigated area to total cropped area % 24.20 8a. Proportion of total cropped area devoted to foodgrains % 1973-74 75.30 9. Foodgrains output m. tons 1977-78 121.0 10. Rate of growth of food- grains output Z 1950-75 3.6 11. Rate of growth of agricultural output % 1950-75 3.1 12. Consumption of fertilizers (per hectare) N kgs 1977-78 17.8 P205 " 5.3 K20 to 3.1 NPK it 26.2 13. Area under high-yielding million 1976-77 34.55 varieties hectare 14. Ratio of area under HYVs to total cropped area % 1976-77 20.32 15. Villages electrified % 1976 31.80 16. Gini index of land concentration no. 1970-71 0.62 Sources: Compiled from data in Mi) Fertilizer Statistics, 1975-76; (ii) Agricultural Census, 1970-71; (iii) India - A Reference Annual. 1976, (iv) Draft Five Year Plan 197R-Al A.7 Table 2.2 India: Distribution of Annual Rainfall _Annual Rainfall as percentage of annual ',l.No. Name of the sub-division Rainfall Jan.to Mar.to Jun.to Oct.to (mm) Feb. May Sept. Dec. 1 Bay Islands 2,994.5 2.7 15.0 59.3 23.0 2 Asbam (including Manipur & Tripura) 2,516.4 2.3 25.1 65.3 7.3 3 Sub-Himalayan West Bengal 3,126.2 1.0 15.4 78.0 5.6 4 Gangetic West Bengal 1,435.3 2.7 12.4 75.6 9.3 5 Orissa 1,482.2 2.7 8.6 76.7 12.0 6 Bihar Plateau 1.372.0 3.9 6.5 82.0 7.6 7 Bihar Plains 1,202.9 2.9 6.1 85.0 6.0 8 Uttar Pradesh, East 1,007.7 3.4 3.0 88.2 5.6 9 Uttar Pradesh, West 964.2 5.1 3.9 87.0 4.0 10 Punjab (including Delhi & Haryana) 624.7 8.6 7.2 80.0 4.2 11 Jammu & Kashmir 994.6 19.2 24.0 47.5 9.3 12 Rajasthan, East 704.1 2.1 2.3 92.5 3.0 13 Rajasthan, West 311.1 3.6 4.9 89.1 2.4 14 Madhya Pradesh, West 1,004.9 2.2 2.0 90.7 5.1 15 Madhya Pradesh, East 1,401.7 3.1 3.5 87.7 5.7 16 Gujarat Region 976.5 0.4 1.0 95.2 3.2 17 Saurashtra and Kutch 482.6 0.9 2.1 93.1 3.8 18 Konkan 2,872.0 0.1 1.2 93.9 4.8 19. Madhya Maharashtra 920.7 0.8 4.1 83.6 11.5 20 Marathwada 773.6 1.5 4.0 83.3 11.0 21 Vidardha 1,099.6 2.9 3.1 87.0 7.0 22 Coastal Andhra Pradesh 1,008.3 2.3 8.8 56.6 32.3 23 Telangana 926.5 2.1 6.1 81.7 10.0 24 Rayalaseema 677.8 *2.2 11.3 54.4 32.0 25 Tamil Nadu 1,008.1 5.3 14.6 33.0 47.1 26 Coastal Karnataka 3,264.8 0.1 4.4 87.7 7.8 27 Interior Karnataka, North 675.0 0.9 12.7 65.2 19.1 28 Interior Karnataka, South 1,244.9 0.8 13.0 67.6 18.5 29 Kerala 2,996.1 1.2 13.5 66.9 18.3 30 Arabian Sea Island 1,572.4 2.8 13.0 62.3 21.4 Note: The rainfall figures presented in this table are based on data for the period 1901-50. Source: Fertilizer Statistics, 1975-76. The Fertilizer Association of India, New Delhi, 1976. Reproduced from Koteswaram, P.,"Meteorological and Climatologica]. Aspects of Dryland Farming in India,"paper presented at the I.C.A.R. Workshop on "Dryland Agricultural Research", Indian Agri- cultural Research Institute, New Delhi (September 28 - Oct. 1, 1970). A.8 Table 2.3 India - Index Numbers of Agricultural Production (Base: Triennium ending 1961/62 = 100) Year Foodgrains Non-Foodgrains All Crops 1950-51 i 67.4 72.2 68.9 1951-52 68.2 75.0 70.3 1952-53 75.4 -71.1 74.1 1953-54 89.0 72.0 83.9 1954-55 65.7 82.6 84.8 1955-56 85.6 81.6 84.4 1956-57 89.5 89.6 89.5 1957-58 81.7 88.3 83.7 1958-59 97.0 95.6 96.6 1959-60 95.2 92.7 94.3 1960-61 102.1 103.8 102.7 1961-62 102.7 103.5 103.0 1962-63 99.4 105.4 101.4 1963-64 101.7 1 108.2 103.9 1964-65 112.0 120.9 115.0 1965-66 89.9 107.1 95.8 1966-67 91.9 103.7 95.9 1967-68 117.1 115.6 116.6 1968-69 115.7 113.2 114.8 1969-70 1 123.5 120.5 122.5i 1970-71 133.9 126.6 131.4 1971-72 132.0 1 128.9 130.9 1972-73 * 121.2 I 118.9 I 120.4 1973-74 131.5 136.8 133.3 1974-75 124.0 137.4 128.6 1975-76 151.1 143.8 148.6 Source: The World Bank, Report No. 1529-IN, 1977. A.9 Table 2.4 India - Production of Foodgrains (1950-51 to 1975-76) (million tons) Year Cereals Pulses Total l 1950-51 I 45.81 9.20 55.01 1951-52 43.58 8.42 52.00 1952-53 50.01 9.19 59.20 1953-54 59.20 10.62 69.82 1954-55 57.09 10.95 68.04 1955-56 55.81 11.05 66.85 1956-57 58.30 11.55 69.86 1957-58 54.75 9.56 64.31 1958-59 63.99 13.15 77.14 1959-60 64.88 11.78 76.67 1960-61 69.31 12.70 82.02 1961-62 70.95 11.76 82.71 1962-63 68.62 11.53 80.15 1963-64 70.57 10.07 80.64 1964-65 76.94 12.42 89.36 1965-66 62.40 9.94 72.35 1966-67 65.88 8.35 74.23 1967-68 82.95 12.10 95.05 1968-69 83.60 10.42 94.01 1969-70 87.81 11.69 99.50 1970-71 96.60 11.82 108.42 1971-72 94.07 11.09 105.17 1972-73 87.12 9.91 97.02 1973-74 94.66 10.01 104.66 1974-75 90.67 10.40 101.06 1975-76 107.69 13.14 121.03 1976-77 100.36 11.21 111.57 1977-78 N/A | N/A 121.0* 1. ~ ~ . . . .. .. . . __ __ ___ __ __ __ __ * Final Estimates from Economic Survey, 1977-78. N/A = Not available Source: Fertilizer Statistics, The Fertilizer Association of India, New Delhi, 1976. Table 2.5 India - Plan Expenditures in Agriculture As a % of Total Plan As a % of GDP Agriculture Irrigation Rural Agriculture Irrigation Rural & Allied & Flood Electri- Total & Allied & Flood Electri- Total Programs Control fication Programs Control fication First Plan 14.8 22.1 0.4 37.3 0.58 0.87 0.02 1.47 Second Plan- 11.5 9.1 1.6 22.2 0.80 0.63 0.11 1.54 Third Plan 12.7 7.8 1.9 22.3 1.09 0.67 0.16 1.92 Annual Plans 14.6 7.1 3.6 25.3 1.04 0.51 0.26 1.81 C>- Fourth Plan 13.9 8.6 5.4 27.9 0.98 0.60 0.38 1.96 Fifth Plan 11.8 8.8 1.7 22.3 1.18 0.87 0.16 2.21 (Target) Note: 1) Expenditures on agricultural programs exclude those on buffer stocks. 2) GDP (Gross Domestic Product) is estimated at market prices. Source: The World Bank, Report No. 1529-IN, 1977. A.l1 Table 2.6 India - Plan Targets in Agriculture, 1978-83 Unit 1977-78 1982-83 Unit__ __ __ _(Actual) (Target) 1. Average annual rate of growth of value added in agriculture during the 1978-83 period. % - 3.98 2. Proportion of gross value added originating in agriculture % 42.50 38.7 3. Foodgrains output j million tons i 121.0 |140r48 144.48 3a. Annual rate of growth of food- grains output. % - 3.80 4. Gross area irrigated million 48.0 63.0 hectares 5. Fertilizer Consumption: NPK million tons 4.29 7.8 N 2.91 5.2 P205 " .87 1.6 K0 .51 1.0 2 6. High-yielding varieties | million 33.0 48.0 hectares 7. Rural electrification thousand 222.87 322.0 (villages electrified) % 39.0 56.0 Source: Draft Five Year Plan, 1978-83. Planning Commission, New Delhi, 1978 A.12 Table 2.7 Of India - Size Distribution/Agricultural Holdings (1970-71) HoldinsOperated Area Average Size of Holdings Holdings Size of (Hectares) Number Percentage Hectares Percentage Holding (000) (000) I (Hectares) Less than 1 35682 50.6 14,545 9.0 0.4 1.0 - 2.0 13432 19.0 19,282 11.9 1.4 2.0 - 4.0 10681 15.2 29,999 18.5 2.8 4.0 - 10.0 7932 11.3 48,234 29.7 6.1 10 and above 2766 3.9 50,064 30.9 18.1 All Groups 70493 100.0 162,124A' 100.0 2.3 Gini index of size Distribution of Operational Holdings .617 a/ Net area sown was 135.8 million hectares in 1970-71. Source: Agricultural Census, 1970-71. A.13 Table 2.8 India - Cropp.ng Intensity and Irrigation by Size of Holding, 1970-71 Size of Holding Cropping / I TubewellC/ (Hectares) Intensity tion_/ Irrigation Less than ]. 1 130.2 33.8 15.4 1.0 - 2.0 I 122.3 27.9 15.7 2.0 - 4.0 119.4 25.2 17.5 4.0 - 10.0 114.2 20.4 18.4 10.0 and above 109.4 13.0 14.5 All Groups 116.4 21.4 16.6 a/ Total cropped area as % of net area sown. b/ Net irrigated area as % of net area sown. c/ Area irrigated by tubewells as % of total irrigated area. Source: Calculated from the data available in All India Report on Agricultural Census, 1970-71. A.14 Table 2.9 India: Fertilizer Use by Holding Size, 1975-76 (kgs./hectare) Size of Farm (Hectares) 10 and States Below 1 1-2 2-4 4-10 above All Households 1. Andhra Pradesh 109.0 118.5 115.9 117.4 85.6 111.7 2. Assam 69.1 51.2 56.2 50.1 15.4 49.4 3. Bihar 64.7 50.8 45.7 45.4 49.3 49.7 4. Gujarat 78.7 64.7 59.7 43.1 34.7 45.8 5. Haryana 54.6 64.2 57.0 74.5 98.2 76.6 6. Himachal Pradesh 41.7 26.0 20.9 22.3 17.3 28.4 7. Jammu & Kashmir 45.5 50.8 47.0 34.5 - 46.9 8. Karnataka 169.1 131.7 106.3 97.4 39.3 104.6 9. Kerala 93.4 88.6 73.4 171.4 - 92.0 10. Madhya Pradesh 72.1 66.9 55.4 41.3 41.9 46.5 11. Maharashtra 90.5 95.8 85.4 75.3 63.3 77.3 12. Orissa 86.9 71.5 77.6 97.3 111.5 90.8 13. Punjab 88.1 80.3 90.9 90.8 93.6 90.8 14. Rajasthan 59.2 55.6 57.9 59.0 48.1 55.5 15. Tamil Nadu 133.5 133.0 122.5 120.5 127.3 128.1 16. Uttar Pradesh 73.5 66.0 65.4 65.6 47.7 64.6 17. West Bengal 100.0 103.6 77.3 65.9 177.5* 89.5 18. All India 105.3 90.0 96.4 74.2 62.5 78.0 * Negligible of farm. Source: National Council of Applied Economic Research, Fertilizer Demand Study. Table 2.10 World - Size of Holding Fertilizer Consumption and Yield 1974-75 S i~eof Fertilizer consum.p-1 i. | ~~~~~~Size of |Friie osmp Yield per bectare ('00 kg) Country Holding tion N+P205+K20 per (Hectares) hectare o arable Paddy Barley Wheat Maize Sugarcane If I ! Australia 1 19.7 51.2 14.4 13.3 25.8 814.7 Belgium &.3 |577.3 - i 46.8 38.2 58.8 Germ3ny Fed. I 12.87.6* 402.0 - 42.3 44.7 55.3 1 Francd 22.3 245.9 47.2 21.7 38.9 41.0 5 Itanly 6.9 103.5 58.1 25.0 27.1 59.5 6 Netherlands 11.6 756.5 4 43.0 41.4 70.0 7 United Ringdom 55.0 257.0 _ 41.2 43.8 _ U.S.S.R. NA 58.8 40.0 11.0 10.8 27.60 Canada :187.6 28.4 _ 21.3 18.0 57.3 _ U.S.A. 157.G+ 76.7 51.0 23.6 20.6 54.1 826.0 India 2.3 15.7 1.8 10.7 13.4 9.7 505.9 Japan 1.0 374.9 61.8 28.3 26.7 27.5 670.6 Korea Rep. of 1.0 350.4 53.2 23.9 21.9 16.6 _ .China NA 44.6 32.3 15.4 13.8 30.0 705.4 Is'rael I NA 150.1 _ 1e .8 25.4 70.0 _ Egypt 1.6** 150.7 53.2 33.8 25.0 37.1 813.9 FMexico 142.2 33.7 28.3 NA 33.8 11.1 653.0 Chile 118.3 29.1 - NA 14.6 - _ Peru 16.9 48.3. 42.8 NA NA I - 1,579.0 World NA 54.1 L 24.4 NA 15.6 28.2 502.68 * Data relate to 1970/1971/1970-71, unless otherwise stated. ** Data relate to 1960/1961. + Data relate to 1969. NA Not available. Source: Compiled from data available in Fertilizer Statistics, 1975-76. The Fertilizer Association of India, New Delhi, 1976. Table 2.11 Levels of Agricultural Development in India at the District Level for the Triennium 1.970-71 to 1972-73 Cumulative Percentage of Total Gross Value of Output per Hectare (Rs. in Gross Aggregate Consumption lJse of Pumpsets I Gross Number of all India prices) Cropped Output of NPK Tractors Installed; Irri-ated Districts Area J _ In India I I 1~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 1. 2500 - 2799 0.70 1.83 2.37 5.39 0.83 2.22 1.06 2. 2000 - 2499 3.04 7.18 10.60 12.89 7.82 8.27 3.56 3. 1500 - 1999 14.48 27.84 38.93 46.81 40.68 34.08 17.73 > 4. 1000 - 1499 40.30 59.46 67.24 69.90 63.40 64.25 42.91 5. 500 - 999 83.96 94.20 93.79 95.88 91.56 95.75 87.94 6. 54 - 499 100.00 f 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 1lCO.00 100.00 _ _ _ _ _ _ _ Com i _ Five_ _e_ I _ _ _ I _ _ _ ! _ _ _ _ _ Source: Planning Commission, Fifth Five Year Plan, 1974-79, p. 7. Table 2.12 Growth of Agricultural Output in India at the District Level Between the Trienniums 1962-63/64-65 to 1970-71/72-73 oCenulative Percentages in Total in 1970-71/1972-73 Annual Compound Crowth Rate of- Gross Value of Gross Aggregate ConsumUptionl Use of Pumpsets Gross Number of , ~~~ * ~~Cropped Irrigate Districts Area !Area Oin India 1. 11.00 - 11.35 0.62 0.15 0.02 0.84 I 0.08 I 0.09 0.36 2. 9.00 - 10.99 1.38 0.98 1.22 2.89 1.26 1.19 1.42 3. 7.00 - 8.99 7.93 9.97 14.13 32.47 12.47 16.28 6.38 4. 5.00 - 7.99 13.89 17.03 20.81 46.46 20.13 24.37 12.41 5. 3.00 - 4.99 29.60 36.13 38.99 67.72 34.68 45.53 29.08 6. 1.00 - 2.99 60.58 67.75 66.24 83.74 66.63 71.90 62.41 7. 0.00 - 0.99 73.09 I 80.98 81.92 90.74 80.69 83.81 75.18 8. Negative 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 * Growth rates have been computed by valuing output in 1962-63 to 1964-65 and 1970-71 to 1972-73, at average all Tndia prices for each crop for the triennium 1970-71 to 1972-73. Source: Planning Commission, Fifth Five Year Plan 1974-79, p. 7. A.18 Table 3.1 India: Fertilizer Sector_- Important Indicators Nutrients Variable Unit ! Year lTotal N p20 5 K2 NPK A. Consumption, Production, j K and Imports. i) Consumption O00tons 1977-78 2914.6 | 867.5 505.0 4287.1 ii) Production " 1999.7 670.0 - 2669.7 iii) Imports 758.1 163.9 598.9 1520.9 iv) Share of different nutrients % 68.0 20.0 12.0 100.0 in fertilizer consumption B. Rate of Growth i) Consumption 1952-53 16.9 22.8 21.0 17.9 ii) Production to 17.6 17.6 - 17.6 1977-78 I C. Plan Targ_t__ _ 137a-83 l i) Consumption OOOtons 1982-83 5250 1600 1000 7850 ii) Production 4100 1125 - 5225 iii) Imports | n 1150 475 1000 2625 iv) Installed Capacity 6111 1426 - 7537 D. Installed Capacity I ! i) Public sector % Nov.76 51.0 36.0 _ I 47.0 ii) Private sector 42.0| 50.0 _ I 44.0 iii) Cooperative sector 7.0 14.0 _ 9.0 E. Capacity Utilized % 1977-78 65.0 66.0 _ 64.5 Source: Compiled from the data in Fertilizer Statistics, 1976-77, Fertilizer News, July 1978 and Draft Five Year Plan, 1978-83. A. 19 Table 3.2 India: Fertilizer Nutrient Consumption (1952-53 to 1977-78) ('000 tons) Nitrogen (N) | Phosphorus* (P 20 ) Potash (K20) Total Year -Qatt Quantity Share (%) Quantity Share (Z) Quantity Share (%) Quantity L952-53 57.8 88.0 4.6 7.0 3.3 5.0 65.7 l953-54 89.3 85.0 8.3 7.9 7.5 7.1 105.1 'L954-55 94.8 78.4 15.0 12.4 11.1 9.2 120.9 1955-56 107.5 82.2 13.0 9.9 10.3 7.9 130.8 1956-57 123.1 80.0 15.9 10.3 14.8 9.7 153.8 1957-58 149.0 81.1 21.9 11.9 12.8 7.0 183.7 !958-59 172.0 76.8 29.5 13.2 22.4 10.0 223.9 :1959-60 229.3 75.3 53.9 17.7 21.3 7.0 304.6 :1960-61 211.7 72.0 53.1 18.1 29.0 9.9 293.8 :l961-62 249.8 73.8 60.5 17.9 28.0 8.3 338.3 :L962-63 333.0 73.6 82.8 18.3 36.4 8.1 452.2 :'1963-64 376.8 69.3 116.5 21.4 50.6 9.3 543.9 :.964-65 555.2 71.8 148.7 19.2 69.3 9.0 773.2 L965-66 574.8 73.3 132.5 16.9 77.3 9.8 784.6 1.966-67 737.8 67.0 248.6 22.6 114.2 10.4 1100.6 1.967-68 1034.6 61.4 446.4 26.5 204.0 12.1 1685.0 1968-69 1208.6 68.6 382.1 21.7 170.0 9.7 1760.7 1969-70 1356.0 68.4 416.0 21.0 210.0 10.6 1982.0 2.970-71 1479.0 65.6 541.0 24.0 236.0 10.4 2256.0 1.971-72 1798.0 67.7 558.2 21.0 300.0 11.3 2656.2 1,972-73 1839.0 66.4 581.3 21.0 347.5 12.6 2767.8 2.973-74 1829.0 64.4 649.7 22.9 359.8 12.7 2838.5 1.974-75 1765.7 68.6 471.5 18.3 336.1 13.1 2573.3 1.975-76 2148.6 74.3 466.8 16.1 278.3 9.6 2893.7 1.976-77 2457.1 72.0 635.3 18.6 318.6 9.4 3411.0 3977-78 2914.6 68.0 867.5 20.0 505.a J 10.0 4287.1 * Excludes data related to bonemeal and rockphosphate. Note: 1. From 1952-53 to 1960-61, distribution figures are treated as consumption. 2. From 1961-62 onwards, consumption figures have been taken from Indian Agriculture in Brief, Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation, New Delhi. 3. Share (%) data are derived from the consumption figure. Source: Fertilizer Statistics, 1976-77, Fertilizer Association of India, New Delhi, 1977, and Fertilizer News, July 1978. A.20 Table 3.3 India: Growth Rates* of Fertilizer Consumption (percent) Period Nitrogen Phosphate Potash All Nutrients Perid P205 K20 (N+P205+20) 1. 1952-53 to 1962-63 19.1 33.5 27.1 21.1 2. 1962-63 to '972-73 18.6 21.5 25.3 17.7 3. 1972-73 to 1976-77 9.6 8.3 7.8 9.1 4. 1975-76 to 1976-77 14.4 36.1 14.5 17.9 5. 1976-77 to 1977-78 18.6 36.5 58.5 26.5 6. 1952-53 to 1977-78 16.9 22.8 21.0 17.9 7. 1977-78 to 1984-85** ) _ _ - j 7.2 to 11.1 * Annual compound growth rates. ** Annual compound growth rates required to achieve the targets of 7 to 9 million tons of fertilizer consumption in 1985 set by the National Commission on Agriculture. Source: Calculated from the data in Table 3.2 A.21 Table 3.4 India: Zcnewise Consumption of Fertilizers, 1969-78 ('000 tons) Centrail East North South West All-India 1968-69 402.9 154.1 238.1 657.1 223.8 1675.0 1969-70 553.5 199.0 233.4 744.8 259.6 1990.0 1970-71 547.8 209.4 294.2 760.9 364.7 2177.0 1971-72 667.3 262.6 383.8 881.2 426.1 2621.0 1972-73 719.0 280.0 485.0 883.0 381.0 2748.0 1973-74 684.0 273.0 471.0 905.0 477.0 2839.0 1974-75 571.0 302.0 348.0 856.0 457.0 2573.0 1975-76 675.4 321.2 430.0 1000.2 420.2 2894.0 1976-77 971.0 379.0 529.8 960.2 495.9 3411.0 1977-78 1135.7 420.8 664.1 1303.9 655.5 4287.0 % Change in 1977- 78 compared to 182.0 173.0 179.0 98.0 193.0 156.0 Note: 1) Figures relate to April-March except 1975-76 thru 1977--78, where February-January reporting year is used. 2) From 1973-74 onward, fertilizer consumption of plantation crops is reported separately as "Others". Hence, the row sum may not equal to All India consumption in the last column. Source: Fertilizer Statistics. Annual Publications. The FAI, New Delhi, and Fertilizer News, July 1978. A.22 Table 3.5 India: Zonewise Consumption of Fertili,:ers, 1969--7£ (Percentage Distribution) Year Central East North South West All India A. Fertilizer Consumption 1968-69 24.0 9.2 14.2 39.2 13.4 100.0 1969-70 27.8 10.0 11.7 37.4 13.1 100.0 1970-71 25.1 9.6 13.5 35.0 16.8 100.0 1971-72 25.5 10.1 14.6 33.6 16.2 100.0 1972-73 26.2 10.1 17.6 32.2 13.9 100.0 1973-74 24.1 9.6 16.6 i 21.9 16.8 100.0 1974-75 22.2 I 11.7 13.5 1 33.3 17.8 100.0 1975-76 i 23.3 11.1 14.9 34.6 14.5 100.0 1976-77 28.5 11.1 15.5 28.1 14.5 100.0 1977-78 26.5 9.8 15.5 30.4 15.5 100.0 B. Cropped Area 1. Ne_ cultivated area 1972-73 37.0 16.5 6.5 21.5 18.5 100.0 2. Net irrigated area 1972-73 35.4 17.1 15.8 23.1 8.6 100.0 Sources: 1) Figures in A are calculated from data in Table 3.4. 2) Figures in B are derived from data available in Fertilizers Statistics, 1975-76. A.23 Table 3.5A India: Statewise Consumption of Fertilizers 1967-68 to 1976-77 ('000 tons) Consuption of Fertilizers State/Zone 1967-68 1968-69 1969-70 1970-71 1971-72 1972-73 1973-74 1974-75 1975-76 1976-77 Central Madhya Pradesh 22 32 52 81 118 140 141 99 108 137 Rajasthan 25 30 42 54 71 58 74 59 78 99 Uttar Pradesh 196 339 458 410 478 519 465 4f1 485 729 East Assam 6 9 7 9. 8 10 8 6 6 5 Bihar 43 67 110 99 108 119 97 117 135 155 Orissa 20 24 26 28 50 56 63 49 47 62 West Bengal 44 53 52 79 95 92 99 127 130 153 North Haryana 42 47 51 70 82 94 115 75 96 138 H.P. NA 4 4 6 6 *8 7 11 9 8 J & K NA 9 4 5 5 10 14 8 11 13 Punjab 102 178 174 213 290 323 330 271 311 372 South A.P. 133 303 313 283 297 275 281 307 413 402 Kerala 52 68 72 57 65 75 81 67 64 85 Karnataka 57 106 132 156 167 202 196 233 218 206 Tamil Nadu 155 180 222 259 346 324 341 257 300 277 West Gujarat 91 96 108 165 182 178 212 136 150 202 Maharashtra 175 127 150 199 241 200 261 303 265 290 Source: Compiled from various issues of Fertilizer Statistics, The Fertilizer Association of India, New Delhi. A. 24 Table 3.6 India: Statewise Share of Gross Cropped Area and Fertilizer Consumption (1976-77 and 1977-78) Percentage Share - Percentage Share Kg/ha of State to Total of State to State/Zone Gross cropped total fertilizer Gross Cropped Area consumption Aross Cropped 1974-75 1976-77 1977-78 Area, 1974-75) Central__________________ ___________________ 1976-77 1977-78 ICentral Madhya Pradesh 12.5 4.0 3.7 6.7 7.8 Rajasthan 9.6 2.9 2.6 6.2 7.1 Uttar Pradesh 13.9 21.4 20.1 32.0 37.7 | East Bihar 6.6 4.6 4.0 14.4 16.0 Orissa 4.3 1.8 1.5 8.7 9.0 West Bengal 4.7 4.5 4:0 ! 19.8 22.4 North Haryana 2.9 i 4.0 4.4 28.3 38.9 Punjab 3.6 1 10.9 10.6 62.9 76.7 South!XI ! Andhra Pradesh 8.1 11.8 12.2 30.2 39.4 i ! Karnataka 6.7 I 6.0 6.3 18.8 24.4 i Kerala 1.8 2.0 1.8 22.9 25.9 Tamil Nadu 4.1 8.1 9.9 41.7 64.1 West Gujarat 5.2 ' 5.9 6.8 23.8 34.1 Maharashira 11.9 1 8.5 8.4 14.8 18.5 100.0 100.0 100.0 20.8 26.2 Source: Fertilizer News, July 1978, p.32. A.25 Table 3.7 India: Districtwise Fertilizer Consumption, 1974-75 Total S,No. Range of Fertil- No. of Cumulative Fertilizer % Share Cmltv izer Consumption Distr-icts Districts Z of Consumption in All Cuuatv ('000 tons) Districts ('000 tons) India Cons. Less than 1 41 10.8 10.8 16 0.5 .5 1 - 5 168 44.2 55.0 294 12.0 12.5 5 - 10 76 20.0 75.0 550 22.4 34.9 10 - 15 51 13.4 88.4 618 25.2 60.1 15 - 20 24 6.3 94.7 415 17.0 77.1 20 - 25 7 1.8 96.5 157 6.3 83.4 25 - 30 8 2.1 98.6 226 9.2 92.6 30 - 45 5 1.4 100.0 186 7.4 100.0 Total 380 100.0 2462 100.0 Source: Fertilizer Statistics, 1975-76. The FAI, New Delhi. A.26 Table 3.8 India: Fertilizer Consumption per Hectare of Cropped Land, 19-607061--to 1976-77 Year Kgs per hectare 1960-61 1.92 1961-62 2.21 1962-63 2.96 1963-64 3.46 1964-65 4.86 1965-66 5.10 1966-67 7.00 1967-68 10.33 1968-69 11.02 1969-70 12.63 1970-71 13.67 1971-72 16.03 1972-73 16-;.46 1973-74 17.40 1974-75 15.9 1975-76 17.1 1976-77 20.8 1977-78 26.2 Source: Fertilizer Statistics: Annual Publications.and Fertilizer News, July 1978. A.27 Table 3.8A World: Fertiliser Consumption per Hectare of Agricultural land 1976-77 (eceib'e) 1715-76 1976-77 Contin int;Co untry _il Tot tAl N PaO4 K10 N +VP-1Ot _ P O; K1O N+p OP F Africa 1.2 J.3 0.3 2.4 1.4 0.9 0.3 2.7 Egypt 145.0 29.0 1.1 175.1 171.6 37.2 1.3 210.1 M.ro.co 3.1 3.2 1.8 8.1 4.0 3.4 1.6 9.1 South Alrica 3.0 3.8 t.3 7.8 3.2 3.8 1.4 8.3 North & Cent:al Amierica 18.2 9.2 8.5 35.9 13.8 9.3 9.4 37.9 Can-da 8.2 7.6 3.1 18.9 9.1 7.9 3.a 20.7 Mexico 8.8 2.3 0.5 11.6 .9.4 2.4 0.5 12.3 U.S.A. 22.1 11.2 11.1 41.4 22.5 11.9 12.3 46.7 South America 1.5 2.1 1.3 4.8 1.7 2.7 1.5 6-1 Chile 2.2 2.7 0.5 5.4 2.7 3.1 0.8 6.6 Peru 2.7 0.4 0.1 3.2 3.3 0.6 0.4 4.2 Asia 10.0 3.7 1.7 15.3 11.0 4.4 2.0 17.3 Bangladesh 14.9 5.0 1.3 21.3 15.6 6.1 1.4 24.2 China 13.3 3.7 1.2 1a.t 13.1' 4.1' 1.2 1.-4* India 11.3 2.5 1.5 12.2 13.5 3.5 1.8 13.8 Israel 29.3 15.4 14.2 53.9 23.9 14.8 14.7 59.5 -i,pan 105.3 103.3 86.2 296.4 132.9 133.4 124.8 391.1 K.or.ua Rcp. cf 192.0 97.1 63.3 355.3 1S0.2 62.9 52.0 2S5.1 Pakistan 18.1 4.1 0.1 22.3 20.5 5.0 0.1 25.7 Philippines 15.5 4.6 5.8 25.9 20.5 4.6 5.9 31.0 Europe 53.3 34.6 Z5.7 123.6 54.2 36.6 35.3 126.5 Austria 32.0 19.4 30.4 81.8 38.8 23.1 37.6 99.6 Ee cium 109.0 86.2 89.0 284.3 112.3 71.3 92.0 276.6 C:c;;os:ovaIda 73.0 68.0 95.2 235.2 7i.7 73.1 90.7 2-10.5 Cenmark 115.1 413.7 58.1 216.9 11S.8 45 .7 57.0 221.5 Fin!nd 71.3 61.1 52.2 184.6 5a.4 50.4 43.9 152.7 Frarce 52.9 50.2 40.7 143.8 56.t -G.1 44.5 157.2 German Dern. Pe.p. of 107.7 63.5 112.2 233.5 120.0 G3.2 99.1 290.3 German Fad. Re,. of 92.3 50.6 82.7 233.5 99.! 66.9 90.1 255.7 Italy 41.4 28.0 15.7 85.0 33.3 24.6 11.4 74.3 Neliicrlonds °16.7 3S.0 4S.5 303.3 207.4 45.2 55.6 o03.2 r crvay 109.0 53.7 83.1 255.8 105.0 61.0 81.6 243.7 Poland 63 7 49.0 77.6 190.3 63.3 49.1 75.2 137.7 rpain 23.9 13.2 8.1 45.2 25.3 17.7 9.8 53.3 S.veden 60.1 38.0 33.9 140 9 6-).4 38.6 34.5 142.4 U.i:ed Kingdom 56.1 21.0 21.4 58.5 50.S 21.0 22.1 102.9 Yugoslnia 25.0 13.7 11.3 50.0 26.7 13.1 11.7 51.5 U.S.S.R. 12.0 5.7 9.2 27.9 Oceania 0.4 1.7 0.4 2.4 O.S 2.2 0.5 3 2 Au-.lorli:i 0.3 1.0 0.1 1.5 0.4 1.5 0.2 7.1 Nenv Zealand 0.7 25.0 8.3 34.1 1.t 27.0 9.4 37.3 F:ji 24.4 8.5 72.9 30.4 4.7 7.4 42.6 WVJr! 0, u(I 9.5 5.3 4.7 19.5 9.3 5.3 6.1 0 .V Note; AgriculturaL land includes, in addition to arable land and land under permanent crops land under permanent meadows and pastures. * FAO Estimates, Source: Annual Fe.rtilizer Review, FAO 1977. Reproduced from Fertilizer News, July 1978. A.27a. Table 3.9 India: Statewise Consumption of Plant Nutrients per Hectare of Gross Cropped Area (1976-77 and 1977-78) (kilograms) State/Zone 1976-77 1977-78 N P205 K2O Total N P205 K2O Total Central 12.6 2.7 1.1 16.4 14.2 3.5 1.5 19.2 Madhya Pradesh 4.4 1.9 0.4 6.7 4.9 2.4 0.5 7.8 Rajasthan 5.0 1.0 0.2 6.2 5.7 1.1 0.3 7.1 Uttar Pradesh 25.1 4.5 2.4 32.0 28.4 6.1 3.2 37.7 Delhi 31.5 15.3 10.3 57.1 23.7 7.9 2.3 33.9 East 9.4 1.9 1.4 12.7 10.2 2.2 1.7 14.1 Arunachal Pradesh N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 0.5 0.01 0.01 0.52 Assam 0.9 0.1 0.2 1.2 1.5 0.1 0.3 1.9 Bihar 11.8 1.7 0.9 14.4 12.7 2.1 1.2 16.0 Manipur 7.7 1.4 0.4 9.5 9.2 1.9 1.2 12.3 Meghalaya 6.1 3.3 0.8 10.2 7.3 2.8 1.1 11.2 Nagaland 0.7 0.3 0.1 1.1 1.0 0.4 0.4 1.8 Orissa 6.2 1.5 1.0 8.7 6.4 1.7 0.9 9.0 Tripura 1.3 0.3 0.4 2.0 1.2 0.03 0.03 1.26 West Bengal 13.2 3.5 3.1 19.8 14.8 3.8 3.8 22.4 Mizoram N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 0.4 0.8 - 1.2 North 30.9 9.0 2.3 42.2 38.7 10.9 3.2 52.8 Haryana 23.9 3.2 1.2 28.3 31.0 5.9 2.0 38.9 Himachal Pradesh 6.8 1.6 1.5 9.9 7.4 1.8 1.6 10.8 Jammu & Kashmir 10.8 2.3 0.7 13.8 10.8 2.5 0.5 13.8 Punjab 43.5 15.9 3.5 62.9 54.2 17.6 4.9 76.7 South 19.1 5.4 3.7 28.2 24.2 8.2 6.0 38.4 Andhra Pradesh 22.4 6.2 1.6 30.2 26.6 10.1 2.7 39.4 Karnataka 11.9 3.9 3.0 18.8 14.6 5.1 4.7 24.4 Kerala 11.1 5.2 6.6 22.9 12.2 5.3 8.4 25.9 Tamil Nadu 27.7 6.3 7.7 41.7 40.0 10.9 13.2 64.1 Pondicherry 63.5 17.3 26.9 107.7 91.3 21.9 40.2 153.4 West 11.7 4.0 1.8 17.5 14.4 5.6 3.3 23.3 Gujarat 15.9 6.3 1.6 23.8 20.6 9.9 3.6 34.1 Maharashtra 9.9 3.0 2.0 14.9 11.7 3.7 3.1 18.5 -Goa 14.4 7.2 3.6 25.2 16.4 9.0 5.3 30.7 All India 15.0 3.9 1.9 20.8 17.8 5.3 3.1 26.2 Note: Gross cropped area relates to the year 1974-75 for both 1976-77 and 1977-78 years of fertilizer consumption. Source: Fertilizer News, July 1978, p. 31. A.28 Table 3.9A India: Fertilizer Consumption on Fertilized Land, 1975-76 Ratio of Fertilizer Ratio of Fertilized Fertilizr Use Users to Total Cul- Area to Total per Hectare of tivating Households Cropped Area Fertilized Land …(x)… ---------______ -----…(kgs)… Andhra Pradesh 61.8 41.7 111.7 A.ssam 6.5 4.9 49.4 Eihar 42.3 35.3 49.7 Cujarat 62.3 43.1 45.8 ILaryana 69.2 48.7 76.6 H[imachal Pradesh 33.8 27.6 28.4 'Jammu and Kashmir 40.5 28.5 46.9 Karnataka 49.9 33.4 104.6 Kerala 65.3 72.6 92.0 l1adhya Pradesh 15.4 10.8 46.5 11aharashtra 42.2 27.3 77.3 )rissa 21.4 20.7 90.8 'unjab 91.9 76.3 90.8 lajasthan 30.8 20.1 55.5 ramil Nadu 69.7 55.4 128.1 Utter Pradesh 44.2 32.1 64.6 West Bengal 66.0 49.8 89.5 All India 45.1 32.9 78.0 Source: NCAER Fert1lizer Demand Studv 1975-76 A.29 Table 3.10 India: Seasonwise Consumotion of Fertilizers (000 tons) Kharif (Monsoon) Rabi (Winter) Year Total Quantity Share (%) Quantity Share (%) 1968-69 749 45.0 926 55.0 1675 1969-70 882 44.0 1108 56.0 I 1990 1970-71 925 42.0 1252 58.0 2177 1971-72 1092 50.0 1529 50.0 2621 1972-73 1060 39.0 1639 61.0 2699 1973-74 1202 43.0 I 1607 57.0 2809 1974-75 1145 45.0 1428 55.0 2573 1975-76 1007 35.0 1887 65.0 2894 1976-77 1188 35.0 2223 65.0 3411 1977-78 1522 35.0 2765 65.0 4287 Source: Fertilizer Statistics: Annual Publications, The FAI, New Delhi. A. 30 Table 3.11 India: Cropwise and Statewise Fertilizer Consumption, 1975-76 ('000 tons) State3 Paddy (K) Paddy (R) Wheat Sugarcane Cotton Ground Nut Total * Andhra Pradesh 204.83 91.62 - 24.62 17.65 10.56 420.58 Assam 7.31 Neg. 0.40 Neg. - - 11.18 Bihar 64.85 2.28 41.08 6.70 - - 125.09 Gujarat 15.14 - 25.38 - 31.46 20.30 139.08 Haryana 24.71 - 58.90 15.52 5.17 - 109.25 Himachal Pra. 1.03 - 3.03 - - - 6.80 Jammu 6 Kashmir 6.42 - 2.24 - - - 12.67 Karnataka 101.16 24.77 - 25.75 12.27 19.66 248.04 Kerala 52.84 13.56 - 3.32 - - 70.47 Madhya Pradesh 21.50 - 38.70 2.88 - - 83.41 Maharachtra 68.05 -- 25.76 43.01 41.78 - 251.58 Orissa 34.45 1.91 - - - - 51.58 Punjab 38.51 - 175.75 7.05 33.63 - 329.03 RajastILan 2.20 - 48.10 - 15.60 - 86.10 Tamil lladu 243.52 4.36 - 29.59 14.92 11.01 323.29 Uttar ]'radesh 49.32 - 238.57 88.17 - - 431.64 West Bingal 52.88 24. 47 29.41 - - - 145.20 All In,lia 988.72 163.07 687.32 246.61 190.13 61.53 2844.99 Percentage 34.7 5.7 24.2 8.7 6.7 2.2 82.2 * Include fertilizer consumption by other crops but excluding plantation crops i.e., tea, coffee, rubber, etc. k = Kharif R = Rabi Source NCAER - Fertilizer Demand Study. A.31 Table 3.12 India: N'P:K Ratio in Fertilizer Consumption (1952-53 to 1975-76) Year N:P:K 1952-53 12.6:1.0.7 1953-54 10.8:1:0.9 1954-55 6.3:1:0.7 1955-56 8.3:1:0.8 1956-57 7.7:1:0.9 1957-58 6.8:1:0.6 1958-59 5.8:1.0.8 1959-60 4.3:1:0.4 1960-61 4.0:1:0.5 1961-62 4.1:1:0.5 1962-63 4.0:1:0.4 1963-64 3.2:1:0.4 1964-65 3.7:1:0.5 1965-66 4.3:1:0.6 1966-67 3.0:1:0.5 1967-68 2.3:1:0.5 1968-69 3.2:1:0.4 1969-70 3.3:1:0.5 1970-71 2.7:1:0.4 1971-72 3.2:1:0.5 1972-73 3.2:1:0.6 1973-74 2.8:1:0.5 1974-75 3.7:1:0.7 1975-76 4.5:1:0.6 1976-77 3.9:1:0.5 1977-78 3.4:1:0.6 Note: N - Nitrogen; P - Phosphorus; K - Potash Source: Calculated from Table3.2 A.32 Table 3.13 India: Statewise Nutrient (N:P:K) Consumption Ratio 1975-76 and 1976-77 States/Zone 1975-76 1976-77 N:P:K IN:P:K Central 5.3:1:0.4 j 4.8:1:0.4 Madhay Pradesh 2.6:1:0.1 2.3:1:0.2 i Rajasthan 5.2:1:0.1 5.0:1:0.2 Uttar Pradesh 6.4:1:0.6 5.7:1:0.6 Delhi 5.0:1.0.2 2.1:1:0.7 East 5.2:1:0.7 1 4.8:1:0.7 Assam 2.7:1:0.6 6.3:1:1.6 Bihar 8.2:1:0.6 7.1:1:0.5 Manipur I 3.2:1:0.5 5.3:1:0.3 Meghalaya - 3.2:1:0.2 1.8:1:0.3 Nagaland I 3.3:1:0.3 2.7:1:0.3 Orissa 5.0:1:0.6 4.1:1:0.7 Tripura 5.0:1:1.3 3.9:1:1.3 West Bengal 3.6:1:0.8 3.9:1:0.9 North j 5.1:1:0.2 3.5:1:0.3 Haryana I 10.4:1:0.3 7.4:1:0.4 Himachal Pradesh 3.8:1:0.7 4.0:1:0.9 * Jammu and Kashmir i 7.6:1:0.3 4.6:1:0.3 Panjab 4.3:1:0.2 2.8:1:0.2 Chandigarh 6.4:1:0.1 NA:NA:NA South ! 4.0:1:0.1 3.4:1:0.7 Andhara Pradesh 4.8:1:0.4 3.6:1:0.3 Karnataka 3.3:1:0.9 3.1:1:0.8 Kerala 2.1:1:1.1 , 2.1:1:1.3 ! Tamil Nadu 4.3:1:0.9 4.5:1:1.3 Pondicherry 3.5:1:0.8 3.8:1:1.6 West 3.8:1:0.8 2.9:1:0.5 Gujarat 3.1:1:0.2 2.5:1:0.3 Maharashtra 4.6:1:1.4 3.3:1:0.7 Goa 1.6:1:0.8 2.0:1:0.5 Others 27.6:1:0.6 7.5:1:0.2 All India 4.6:1:0.6 3.9:1:0.5 Source: Fertilizer News, July 1977. A.33 Table 3.15 India: Fertilizer Consumption Forecasts, 1978-79 (million tons) N P 0 K20 Total Athors 2 5 2P 25 ~~~~~NPK 1. Donde-Brown, 1972 4.0 to 2.0 to _ _ 5.15 2.62 2. Parikh-lSrinivasan, 1974 2.17 1.69 2.60 6.46 3. Planning Commission: a) Fifth Five Year Plan, 1976 3.4 0.87 1 0.53 4.80 b) Draft: Fifth Five Year Plan, 1974 5.2 1.8 1.00 8.00 3. National Commission on Agri- culture, 1976 i) Nutrient Removal Method 3.23 1.19 0.86 5.28 ii) Recommended doses for diffe- rent crops/scaled down method 2.86 1.21 0.6 4.67 iii) Incremental output/input ratio method - _ - 4.84 iv) Linear trend nethod 2.61 0.95 0.59 4.15 4. Fertilizer Association of India 3.3 0.88 | 0.49 4.67 5. Actual Consumption in 1977-78 2.92 0.87 0.51 4.29 * Relates to 1978-79 Sources: See Bibliography for details. A. 34 Table 3.16 India: Coefficients of Regressions of the Donde and Brown Study (Expressed as Tons N Plus P Added Per Rupee Change in F and Per 1000 Hectares t -1 Change in Each Type of Crop Area) Irri- Irri- Unirri- Unirri- Group and Kgs. N plus IPt1 gated gated gated gated P Used per ha. in 1968-69 Intercept Kharif Rabi Rharif Rabi I Area Area Area Area Group I Paddy Low - Below 2.4 Kgs R .785 -443 57.0** 4.9** 43.9** 1.8** 3.7** S.E. 5.7 0.4 14.1 0.1 1.0 Group II Paddy Minimum - 2.6 to 2.8 Kgs R .795 -675 98.0** 7.0** 9.0** 3.4** -0.1NS S.E. 6.8 0.6 3.3 0.3 1.5 Group III Paddy Moderate - 9.0 to 2.0 Kgs R .843 -1374 106.3** 12.2**1 12.2** 8.1** -2.3NS S.E. 6.3 0.9 2.6 1.4 3.5 Group IV Paddy High - Over 20.0 Kgs R .788 -2226 59.5** 32.2** _30.2** 21.1** 81.5** S.E. 5.0 2.2 9.9 5.3 14.1 Group V Wheat Low - Below 10.0 Kgs R2 .908 -632 87.3** 9.5** 9.2** 3.5** 3.0** S.E. 47.7 1.1 1.3 0.5 0.5 Group VI Wheat High - Above 10.0 Kgs R .906 -3421 178.2** 9.9** 26.0** 17.2** 4.6NS S.E. 7.4 3.7 3.6 4.4 4.7 Group VII Mixed Wheat - Belaw 6.0 Kgs R .787 -246 128.3** 1.3NS 1.9* 1.1* 1.1* S.E. 7.0 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.5 Group VIII Other Crops - Low - Below 9.0 Kgs. 2 NS NS R .628 -323 182.3** 16.1** 27.4 0.4 12.1* S.E. 19.9 3.5 21.4 0.6 4.8 Group IX Other Crops - High - Above 9.0 Kgs R .776 -3417 264.9** 13.9** 23.8 NS 7.8** 17NS S.E. 16.3 3.4 19.4 1.0 7.7 ** Significant at 99% level; * Significant at 95% level; NS - Not significant. Source: Donde and Brown, 1972. A.35 Table 3.17 India: Donde-Brown Projections of Demand for Fertilizers (million tons) Projection I Projection II Projection III Year (N+P205) (N+P205) N P 1. Projections 1973-74 5.2 4.4 2.4-2.9 1.1-1.5 2. Actual 1973-74 2.5 2.5 1.8 0.7 3. Actuals as percentage of projections, 1973-74 48.0 57.0 73.0-63.0 59.0-43.0 4. Projections 1978-79 4.0-5.2 2.0-2.6 Source: B. B. Donde and Dorris D. Brown, "Effective Demand for Fertilizers in India". The World Bank, Report No. SA-31, 1972. A. 36 Table 3.18 India: Statewise Dosnd-Brown Projections of N and P205 and Actuals, 1973-74 ('000 tons) Projections Actual ActuaL as P of N p 0 N ~~~~P 0 N P 0 P2 5 2 5 N 25 L. Andhra Pradesh 515 206 169.6 82.0 33.0 40.0 2. Assam 6 5 5.5 0.5 91.0 10.0 3. Bihar 117 50 70.1 16.0 60.0 32.0 4. Gujarat 137 91 138.5 60.2 101.0 66.0 'S. Haryana 1:27 47 94.1 16.5 74.0 35.0 I;. Rimachal Pradesh 6 3 4.2 1.6 70.0 53.3 7. Jam-u & Kashmir 8 4 10.2 2.9 128.0 75.0 ,3. Karnataka 143 76 108.0 48.3 76.0 64.0 K. Rerala 85 69 .34.7 22.6 41.0 33.0 11). Madhya Pradesh 71 32 87.3 44.6 123.0 140.0 IL. Maharashtra .305 196 147.1 72.5 48.0 37.0. 12. Orissa 42 23 43.6 12.0 104.0 52.0 13. Punjab 344 163 237.0 73.0 69.0 45.0 1S. Rajasthan 86 39 56.5 13.5 66.0 35.0 15. Tamil Nadu 2L6 133 202.0 71.0 94.0 54.0 15. Uttar Pradesh 565 324 328.6 86.6 58.0 27.0 17. West Bengal 59 26 54.0 18.4 92.0 71.0 Source: 1. Donde and Brown, 1972. 2. Fertilizer Statistics, 1974-75. A.37 Table 3.18A India: Projections of Fertilizer Demand by Planning Commission and the Ministry of Agriculture. ('000 tons) N P 2 0 5 _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ L P~~~~~~~~~~2 °5 Yea Planning Ministry of Planning Ministry of Year | Commission Agriculture Commission Agriculture 1978-79 1 3400 870 1979-80 3700 990 1980-81 4000 1110 1981-82 i 4300 1260 1982-83 1 4760 5020 to 5150 1425 1670 to 1720 1983-84 1 5200 1600 a 1984-85 1 5620 1790 1985-86 I 6050 2000 1986-87 I 6550 2240 1987-88 I 7075 6130 to 6250 2550 2450 to 2500 Source: The Working Group Report. p.7 A.38 Table 3.19 India: The Parikh-Srinivasan Optimum Requirement of Fertilizers (million tons) 1978-79 N P 0 KO0 NPK 2 5 2 __ _ 1. Optimum requirement of fertilizers to meet the 5th Plan (Draft) targets of output, and area sown, irrigated 2.17 1.69 2.6 6.46 and under high-yielding varieties. 2. Optimum requirement of fertilizers to meet the 5th Plan (Draft) targets I I of output etc., when the ratios of 4.31 1.68 1.09 1 7.08 P 0 and K O to N are fixed at the i 5th Plan (rraft) values for each crop j I separately.l ' 3. Optimum requirement of fertilizers to meet the 5th Plan. (Draft) targets of output etc., when the ratios of 4.59 1.47 0.79 6.85 P O and K0 to N are fixed at the - 1M7t-72 observed values for all crops. 4. Optimum requirement of fertilizers when 80% of the targets for irriga- I tion and HYVs are fulfilled, and 5.62 2.24 1 1.49 9.35 the ratios of P20 and K 0 are fixed l at the 5th Plan (Draft) levels. 5.62 2.24 ! 1.49 9.35 Source: K.S. Parikh and T.N. Srinivasan, Optimum Requirement of Fertilizers for the Fifth Plan Period. Indian Statistical Institute, 1974, pp. 14-18. A.39 Table 3.20 India: The NCA* Estimates of Future Demand for Fertilizers (million tons) Estimated Demand for Method Year N P K Total i.~li 1. Nutrient Removal Method X 1978-79 3.23 , 1.19 ! 0.86 5.28 1980-81 3.41 1.27 0.99 5.67 1984-85 3.6 1.3 1.1 6.0 2. i) Recommended doses for I different crops method 1978-79 5.21 | 2.19 1.1 8.50 ii) Scaled down estimates 1978-79 2.86 1.21 0.6 4.67 3. Incremental output/input 1978-79 - _ - 4.37 a ratio method 1978-79 - 4.84 4. Linear trend method 1978-79 ' 2.61 0.95 i 0.59 4.15 1984-85 3.6 1.4 1.0 6.0 * National Commission on Agriculture, 1976. a = based on a foodgrains/fertilizer ratio of 17. b = based on a foodgrains/fertilizer ratio of 13. c = extrapolation of a linear trend for total NPK tons yielded an estimate of 4.24 m.tons. Source: Report of the National Commission on Agriculture, 1976, Part X, Chap. 48. Table 3.21 India: Removal of Nutrients by Foodgrain and Non-Foodgrain Crops - Actual and Projected Production (million tons) 1970-71 1973-74 1978-79 1980-81 Crops Total Total Total Total N P0 KO~(N + N 0 K(N + N 0 K(N + N 0(N + N P25 K 20 P205 N 25 2 P205+ N 2 5 K20 P205+ N 25 K20 P20+ _____ _____ ____ _____ ____I____ K20) K20) K20) K20) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Foodgrain crops 3.33 1.24 5.02 9.59 3.12 1.18 4.88 9.18 4.24 1.71 6.33 12.28 4.17 1.64 6.69 12.50 Non-foodgrain crops 0.83 0.45 1.51 2.79 0.90 0.51 1.75 3.16 1.15 0.67 2.25 4.07 1.52 0.90 3.20 5.62 Total 4.16 1.69 6.53 12.38 4.02 1.69 6.63 12.34 5.39 3.38 8.58 16.35 5.69 2.54 9.89 18.12 Source: Report of the National Commission on Agriculture, 1976. Table 3.22 India: Estimated Fertilizer Requirement by 1978-79* area: million hectares dose: kg/ha nutrient .requirement: million quintals - - Irri ated Unirr gated Total Crops Sutrient_ HYVP Local Varieties HYVP Local Varieties Nutrient I~ ~ ~~uretnuretntin nutrient Area requ'i- area dose nutrient area dose rent area dose ren. area dose ndtrient rement. 1 2 f3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Foodgrains: paddy N 18.00 80 14.40 2.00 35 0.70 20.00 15 3.00 40.00 18.10 P205 18.00 35 6.30 2.00 10 0.20 20.00 0 40.00 6.50 K20 18.00 25 4.50 2.00 0 .. 20.00 0 40.00 4.50 wheat N 12.00 80 9.60 .. .. .. 1.50 40 0.60 8.50 15 1.28 22.00 11.48 P205 12.00 35 4.20 .. .. .. 1.50 20 0.30 8.50 0 .. 22.00 4.50 K20 12.00 25 3.00 .. .. .. 1.50 10 0.15 8.50 0 .. 22.00 3.15 maize N - 1.00 70 0.70- 1.00 30 0.30 4.50 15 0.68 6.50 1.68 P205 1.00 30 0.30 1.00 10 0.10 4.50 0 .. 6.50 0.40 K20 1.00 20 0.20 1.00 0 .. 4.50 0 .. 6.50 0.20 jowar tl 1.50 40 0.60 1.00 40 0.40 15.50 10 1.55 18.00 2.55 P205 1.50 15 0.23 1.00 15 0.15 15.50 0 * 18.00 0.38 K20 1.50 10 0.15 1.00 10 0.10 15.50 0 .. 18.00 0.25 bajra N 1.00 40 0.40 4.00 40 1;60 8.50 10 0.85 13.50 2.85 P205 1.00 15 0.15 4.00 15 0.60 8.50 0 * 13.50 0.75 K20 1.00 1 0.10 4.00 10 0.40 8.50 0 .. 13.50 0.50 total for N 33.50 25.70 1.00 2.60 7.36 36.66 cereals P205 33.50 11.18 0.30 1.05 .. 12.53 K20 33.50 7.95 .. 0.65 .. 8.60 other N 3.00 10 0.30 6.00 0 .. 9.00 0.30 cereals P205 3.00 0 .. 6.00 0 .. 9.00 K20 3.00 0 .. 6.00 0 .. 9.00 1 2 __3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 pulses N T 3.00 10 0.30 21.00 5. 1.05 24.00 1.35 P205 3.00 20 0.60 21.00 10 2.10 24.00 2.70 K20 3.00 0 .. 21.00 0 .. 24.00 total other N I 0.60 1.05 1.65 cereals and P205 0.60 2.10 2.70 pulses K.20 total N 25.70 1.60 2.60 8.41 38.31 foodgrains P205 11.18 0.90 1.05 2.10 15.23 1 1202 7.95 .. 0.65 .. 8.60 Non-focdgrains: oilseeds N 2.00 20 0.40 13.17 10 1.32 15.17 1.72 P205 2.00 25 0.50 13.17 15 1.98 15.17 2.48 K20 2.00 10 0.20 13.17 0 .. 15.17 0.20 sugarcane N 2.56 100 2.56 0.64 50 0.32 3.20 2.88 P205 2.56 40 1.02 0.64 20 0.13 3.20 1.15 K1(O 2.56 15 0.38 0.64 0 .. 3.20 0.38 cotton N 2.30 60 1.38 6.30 30 1.89 8.60 3.27 P205 2.30 25 0.57 6.30 0 .. 8.60 0.57 1K20 2.30 10 0.23 6.30w 0 .. 8.60 0.23 jute | N 0.15 40 0.06 0.711 30 0.21 0.66 0.27 P205 0.15 15 0.02 0.71 10 0.07 0.86 0.09 k'20 0.15 10 0.01 0.711 5 0.03 0.86 0.04 tobacco N 0.10 50 0.05 0.40 20 0.08 0.50 0.13 I P205 0.10 30 0.03 0.40 10 0.04 0.50 0.07 1K20 0.10 30 0.03 0.40 10 0.04 0.50 0.07 other crops N 4.85 60 2.91 10.55 25 2.64 15.40 5.55 & plantaticrs P205 4.85 25 1.21 10.55 10 1.06 15.40 2.27 crops K(20 4.85 10 0.48 10.55| 1o 1.06 15.49 1.54 total non- N 7.36 6.46 13.82 foodgrain P205 3.35 3.28 6.63 crops K20 1.33 1.13 2.46 total N| 25.70 8.96 2.60 14.87 52.13 requirement j P205 11.18 4.25 1.05 5.38 21.66 I K20 7.95 1 1.33 0.65 | 1.13 11.06 * 1. Based on estimated area under crops and most likely doses of fertilizer application. 2. Approach iPaper for Fifth Five Year Plan, Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation (Fertilizer Division). ** One quintal equals 100 kilograms. A. 43 Table 3.23 India: The FAI Estimates of Demand for Fertilizers Based on Quadratic Specification (million tons) Year N P205 K205 Total 1. a) Projections, 1976-77 2.466 0.679 0.400 3.545 b) Actuals, 1976-77 2.457 0.635 0.319 3.411 c) Ratio of Actual to Projection, 1976-77 (%) 99.6 93.5 79.8 96.2 2. a) Projections, 1977-78 2.826 0.740 0.448 4.014 b) Actuals, 1977-78 2.914 0.868 0.505 4.287 c) Ratio of Actual to Projection (%) 103.i 117.3 112.7 106.8 3. Projections: 1978-79 3.30 0.88 0.49 4.67 1979-80 3.74 0.96 0.55 5.25 1980-81 4.71 1.04 0.60 5.85 1981-82 4.71 1.13 0.66 6.50 1982-83 5.25 1.22 0.72 7.18 1983-84 5.80 1.31 0.79 7.90 1984-85 6.39 1.41 0.85 8.65 1985-86 7.01 1.51 0.92 9.44 1986-87 7.66 1.62 0.99 10.27 1987.88 8.34 1.73 1.07 11.13 Source: Fertilizer News, July and December, 1977. Table 3.24 indiLa: btatewise torecasts for Fertilizer Nutrients (1978-79 to 1988-89) ('000 tonns 1978-79 1979-80 1980-81 1981-82 1982-83 1983-84 1987-88 Hadhya Pradesh H/A 125.1 143.8 161.1 180.4 198.4 FAI 131.0 154.0 178.0 205.0 234.0 264.0 RITES 131.0 264.0 445.0 Rajasthan H/A 109.1 120.0 132.0 145.2 159.8 FAI 103.0 119.0 136.0 154.0 174.0 194.0 RITES 103.0 194.0 371.0 Uttar Pradeeb M/A 1046.5 1166.5 1283.2 1411.5 1538.5 FAI 577.0 651.0 729.0 812.0 899.0 990.0 RITES 595.5 1018.0 1545 Assam H/A 3.2 3.5 3.9 4.2 4.5 FAI 7.0 7.0 8.0 8.0 9.0 9.0 (Aesam & Heghalaya)RITES 47.0 107.0 225.0 Bihar M/A 191.8 220.5 242.6 262.0 282.9 FAI 162.0 183.0 206.0 230.0 255.0 281.0 RITES 162.0 281.0 434.0 Orissa H/A 56.5 63.3 69.7 75.2 81.2 FAI 62.0 71.0 80.0 91.0 102.0 113.0 RITES 62.0 113.0 181.0 West Bengal M/A 140.2 157.0 172.7 186.5 201.4 FAI 140.0 161.0 184.0 210.0 237.0 265.0 RITES 140.0 265.0 434.0 Haryana H/A 178.2 194.1 217.31 239.04 258.2 FAI 136.0 156.0 177.0 199.0 223.0 248.0 RITES 141.5 261.0 415.0 Punjab H/A 332.7 363.7 400.1 440.1 475.3 FAI 389.0 442.0 499.0 559.0 623.0 690.0 RITES 382.0 685.0 1070.0 Table 3.24 (Cont'd.) Page 2 1978-79 1979-80 1980-81 1981-82 1982-83 1983-84 1988-89 Himachal Pradesh M/A 7.5 8.2 9.1 9.9 10.9 FAI 6.0 7.0 7.0 8.0 8.0 9.0 RITES 6.0 9.0 12.0 Jamimu & Kashmir M/A 12.3 13.6 14.9 16.4 18.1 FAI 9.0 9.0 9.0 10.1 10.0 10.0 RITES 9.0 10.0 16.0 Delhi M/A 4.8 5.3 5.8 6.4 7.1 Andhra Pradesh M/A 388.0 421.30 455.0 491.4 530.7 FAI 435.0 485.0 538.0 594.0 654.0 716.0 RITES 445.3 716.0 1075.0 Karnataka M/A 170.9 184.69 203.16 223.5 245.8 FAI 202.0 229.0 257.0 288.0 320.0 354.0 RITES 214.0 382.7 594.0 Kerala M/A 40.6 44.7 49.1 54.0 59.42 Ut FAI 43.0 46.0 49.0 51.0 54.0 57.0 RITES 47.0 66.6 86.0 Tamil Madu M/A 222.8 245.1 264.7 285.9 308.7 FAI 297.0 328.0 361.0 396.0 433.0 471.0 RITES 322.0 525.7 774.0 Gujarat H/A 178.0 196.7 216.4 238.0 261.8 FAI 155.0 171.0 187.0 204.0 221.0 239.0 RITES 154.0 239.0 338.0 Maharashtra M/A 246.7 266.0 292.5 321.8 353.9 FAI 236.0 263.0 292.0 323.0 355.0 .389.0 RITES 236.0 389.0 585.0 Sources: M/A - Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation, New Delhi., FAI - Fertilizer Association of India, New Delhi. RITES - Rail India Technical and Economic Services New Delhi. Table 4.1 India: LICENSED CAPACITY OF FERTILISERS.. UIAVSUSALWISS AND NUTUIENYTWISC SO11TO 11T1 Nitrogenous fertillsers NPJNPK mflrt.hess Phosphatic lertitlIrer Iotal As an A0% ASN UREAh ACI CAN Niko- Is-MO 19-19-19 11.17-l1 10-26-26 Petalos SsP TSP 2% 46%. 25' L 25% N phos- 18-46-0 I 20. N N N2%5 phat ".360 & 12-32-16 1181% 16% 4 6% N P,0* N'-01 2-20-0ht 20-20-*0 14-35-14' 14-261 1436-112 Poo. P',O p.06 i-MATE RIAL-* ___________________ I. December 31. 1050 1111.0 128.0 16.7 20.6 3. December 31, 1911 430.5 173.0 58.7 37.? 3. December 31. 1832 430.8 1191.0 68.1 21.7 1% .,.L.. 1 C. OLt5 4!0.8 109.0 66731.7 S. Decemrber 31. 1954 430.6 216.0 88.7 34.8 6L Decembef 31. 1955 430.6 270.0 88.7 43.3 7. Decemnber 31, 1956 4308a 270.0 66743.2 6. December 31, 1957 430.8 310.0 68749.6 9. December 31. 1918 430.8 834.3 68.7 63.5 10. December 31. 1959 446.6 148.0 34.0 40.0 - - - - - 04.7 -148.6 80.8 It. December 31. 1I6 401.9 148.0 24.0 48.81 - - - 16.6 511.1 -182.2 9. 12. Deceml.ee 31, 1961 400198 110.4 24.4 48.6 306.5' - - 16.6 - 49.4 -246.3 107.2 13. August 31. 11i.2 502.1 140.2 24.4 46.8 394.2' - - 16.8 ---- 649.4 -246.3 107.2 14t. July 31, 1%63 636.0 140.2 24.4 48.6 699.3' - - 65.0 - 09.7 326. 148.5 15. Sopl.mber 30, 1964 136.0 140.2 23.3 48.8 665.0' - 88.5 - -03 6 - 24.0 175.1 le. Septemrber 30. 1965 536.0 140.2 23.5 48.6 6831.0' - 88.5 ---- 1,061.2 -324.0 187.5 17. Seplern,e? 30. 194.6 662.2 121.9 276.5 61.6 685.4' 630.0 - 187.8 1,131.3 -524.8 263.6 18. September 30i. 1967 £91.5 121.9 376.5 .6. 320.0, 630.0 .108.0 411.8 - - .131.3 -632.4 316.4 (297.4' 19. Sep:ember 30. 1968 978.1 121.9 627.3 85.6 (320.0, 370.0 106.0 186.5 360.0 --- 1,327.6 117.0 004.5 431.1 1585.4' 90. Seplen.Let 30. 1969 978.1 121.9 1,131.3 65.6 800.0 270.0 106.0 166.6 260.0 --- 1,327.6 37.0 1,136.4 431.2 II. Septtmber 30. 1970 1,013.1 2211.9 1,.5811.3 65.6 800.0 180.0 106.0 232.5 380.0 --- 1,337.9 27.0 1,349.343. 32. September 30, 1911 1,001.8 121.0 1.791.3 65.6 800.0 180.0 108.0 232.5 260.0 360.0 - - 1,378.8 21.0 1,514.7 532.0 23. Sep:ember 3D. 1972 933.8 50.0 1,780.4 64.8 800.0 1180.0 108.0 (5156 280.0 860.0 - - 1.249.8 27.0 1,471.3 502.6 24. November I, 1973 950.5 50.0 2,758.4 64.8 800.0 180.0 108.0 C51.5 260.0 360.0 - 45.0 1.399,8 27.0 1,933.5 8,34,2 (171.5' 25. November 1. 1974 911.8 60.0 3,1172.2 64.9 800.0 160.0 108.0 r 51.5 260.0 360.0 275.5 45.0 1.431,2 37.0 . 2162.1 6643 L117 1.5' 26l. Nov*et ber 1, 11975 951.8 50.0 4,085.4 84.6 8100.0 160.0 108.0 r 11.5 410.0 360.0 375.5 45.0 1,420.6 27.0 3,625.1 737,g L1171.5' 37. No.e.Lr,ef I, 1076' 945.0 60.0 4,819.0 64.8 8100.0 270.0 136.0 ( 711.5 f4o1.o 445.0 r50305 45.0 1,444.8 222.1 3,024.1 *927.5 111V 196.5 32.0 28. Cci~ber I. 1077 969.0 50.0 4,819.0 84.8 800.0 270.0 136.0 ( 1.5 (41, 20.0 r 603.5 45.0 1,451.4 567.0 .3 01J.O 91.sO 18is0 96.5' 1 2. Source: Fertilizer Statistics, 1976-77. The PAI, NeW Delhi, 1977. and The Working Group Report, 1978 (for 1977 data). A.47 Table 4.2 India: Share of Ferttlizer Capacity - Materialwise (January 1978) ('000 tons) Operating Under Nutrient Plants Cons:ruction Approved Total 1. Ammonium Sulphate N 189.8 - - 189.8 (6.3) (2.6) 2. AMronium Sulphate N 13.0 - - 13.0 Nitrate (0.4) (0.2) 3. Calcium Ammonitm N 200.0 - - 200.0 Nitrate (6.6) (2.8) 4. Urea N 2186.0 1915.0 2088.0 6189.0 (72.2) (92.7) (100.0) (86.4) 5. Ammonium Chloride N 16.2 - - 16.2 (0-5) (0.2) 6. Superphosphate P205 221.0 - - 221.0 (24.2) (15.0) 7. Triple Superphosplhate P205 102.2 246.0 - 348.2 (11.2) (62.1) (23.6) 8. Aimonium Phosphate N 42.5 - - 42.5 Sulphate (1.4) (0.6) P205 44.6 - - 44.6 (4-9) (3.0) 9. Diammonium Phosphate N 24.5 - - 24.5 (0.8) (0.3) P20 62.6 - - 62.6 (6.8) (4.2) 10. Nitrophosphate N 54.0 150.0 - 204.0 (1.8) (7.3) (2.8) P205 54.0 150.0 - 204.0 (5.9) (37.9) (13.8) 11. Urea Ammonium N 117.8 - - 117.8 Phosphate (3.9) (1-6) P 0 145.8 - - 145.8 (15.9) (9.4) 12. NP/NPK N 184.3 - - 184.3 (6.1) (2.6) P205 285.7 - 174.0 459.7 (31.1) (100.0) (31.2) N 3028.0 2065.0 208.8 7165.0 TOTAL (100.0) (100.0) (100.0) (100.0) P205 915.0 396.0 174.0 1475.0 (100.0) (100.0) (100.0) (100.0) Source: Figures in brackets indicate the contribution of each Product towTard total N and P205 output. Derived from data available in the Report of the Working Groun, 1978. Table 4.3 India: Share of Fertilizer Capacity Under Various Stages of Implementation - Num:2nt-wise and Sectorwise (as on October 10, 1977) ('000 tons) N P 0 2 5 Category Public Private Corporation Total Public Private Corporation Total 1. Capacity of the 1543 1270 215 3028 337 451 127 915 Operating Units (51) (42) (7) (100) (37) (49) (14) 2. Capacity under 1564 273 228 2065 396 - - 396 Various Stages (76) (13) (11) (100) (100) of Implementation 3. Total 3107 1543 443 5093 733 451 127 1311 (61) (30) (9) (100) (56) (34) (10) (200) 4. Less Capacity - 16 - - - 10 - 10 1;pected to be Scrapped 5. Net Total 3107 1527 443 5077 733 441 127 1301 6. Capacity Approved 1070 674* 345 2088 - 131 43 174 in Principle, (51) (32) (17) (100) (75) (25) (100) and Likely to Come on Stream before 1983-84 7. Grand Total 4177 2200 788 7165 733 572 170 1475 (58) (31) (11) (100) (50) (39) (11) (100) * One plant (in Gujarat based on Bombay High Gas), about which the Working Group Report is not explicit, is assigned to the Private Sector. Figures in parentheses indicate sectorwise percentage contribution to total capacity in each category. Source: The Working Group Report, 1978. A. 49 Table 4.4 India: Statevise Instatled Capacity of Fertilisers. lanuary 1978 ('000 tons) N A25 Operating Under Operating Under Zone/States Plants Construction Approved Total Plants Construction Approved Total Central 497 228 328 1053 58 90 50 198 Hadhya Pradesh 40 - 2281 232 15 - 507 65 Rajasthan 152 - - 152 12 90o - 102 U.Y. 341 228a 1002 669 10 - - 10 Delhi - 21 - - 21 East 731 509 152 1392 25 231 - 256 Assm 197 - 152 =349 - 4 4 Bihar 250 129b - 379 3 156k _ 159 Orissa 124 228c - 352 - - - West Bengal 160 152d - 312 18 75d _ 93 North 80 622 - 702 - - - - Punjab 80 387e - 467 baryana - 235f - 235 - - - - South 1037 228 228 1493 504 - 81 585 Andhra Pradesh 83 2288 2284 539 129 - 814 210 Karnataka 160 - - 160 12 - - 12 Kerala 274 - - 274 151 - - 151 Tamil Nadu 520 - - 520 212 - - 212 West 683 478 1380 2541 328 75 43 446 Gularat 431 273b 6905 1394 199 - 438 242 Maharashtra 81 2051 6906 976 88 751 _ 163 Gon 171 - 171 41 - - 41 All India 3028 2065 2088 7181 915 396 174 1485 Notes for Table 4.4: *. IFFPP's naphtha-based Phulphur Unit (September 1979). b. PCI's Sindri Unit's expansion based on fuel oil (January 1979). c. PCI's coal-based Talchar Unit (July 1979). d. dindustan Fertilizer Corporation's Haldis Unit based on fuel oil for N, and rock phosphate and sulphur for P205 (July 1979). e. National Fertilizer's fuel oil based Bhatinda Unit (early 1979) and Nangal Unit's expansion based on fuel oil (July 1978). f. National Fertilizer's fuel oil based Panipat Unit (early 1979). S. PCI's coal based Ramagundam Unit (July 1979). h. Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers Co.'s fuel oil based Chavaj Unit (April 1978). i. Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers natural gas based Trombay IV and V Units (October 1980). j. Hindustan Copper Ltd.'s Khetri Unit. k. PCI's Sindri Unit's rationalization. 1. coal based Korba Unit (1983-84). 2. IEL's Kanpur Unit's expansion. 3. HFC's natural gas based Namrup Unit (1982-83). 4. Nagarjuna Fertilizer's Kakinada Unit using fuel oil for N, and rock phosphate and sulphur for P20 5 (1981-82). 5/6. Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizer's natural gas based plants. 7. M.P. Industrial Development Corporation's Jhabua Unit for monoammonium phosphate. 8. Kandla Unit. Figures in parentheses indicate the expected start-up dates. Source: Derived from the information available in the Report of the Working Group. 1978. Table 4.5 India: Statewise Installed Capacity, 1978 (Percentage Distribution) N P 0 2 5 Operating Under Operating Under Plants Construction Approved Total Plants Construction Approved Total Central 16.4 11.2 15.8 14.7 6.3 22.7 28.7 13.3 Miadhya Pradesh 0.2 - 11.0 3.2 1.6 - 28.7 4.4 Rajasthan 5.1 - - 2.2 1.3 22.7 - 6.9 U.P. 11.3 11.2 4.8 9.3 1.0 - 0.7 Delhi - - - - 2.4 - 1.3 East 24.2 24.6 7.2 19.4 2.7 58.3 - 17.6 Assan 6.5 - 7.2 4.9 0.4 - - 0.3 Bihar 8.3 6.2 - 5.3 0.3 39.4 - 10.7 Orissa 4.1 11.0 - 4.9 - - - - West Bengal 5.3 7.4 - 4.3 2.0 18.9 - 6.6 North 2.6 30.1 - 9.8 - - - - Punjab 2.6 18.7 - 6.5 - - - - Haryana - 11.4 - 3.3 - - - - South 34.3 11.0 11.0 20.8 55.0 - 46.5 39.4 Andhra Pradesh 2.7 11.0 11.0 7.5 14.0 - 46.5 14.1 Karnataka 5.3 - - 2.2 1.3 - - 0.8 Kerala 9.0 - - 3.8 16.5 - - 10.2 Tamil Nadu 17.3 - - 7.3 23.2 - - 14.3 West 22.5 23.1 66.0 35.3 36.0 19.0 24.8 16.3 Gujarat 14.2 13.2 33.0 19.4 21.7 - 24.8 16.3 Maharashtra 2.7 9.9 33.0 13.3 9.6 19.0 - 11.0 Goa 5.6 - - 2.4 4.7 - - 2.4 All India 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Table 4.6 India: Statewise Fertilizer Factories STATUS No.State;Name of factory Location n p Under Approved l ^ In production | Implementation in principle IN PRODUCTION Andhra Pradesh 1. Andhra Fertilisers Tadepalli SSP 2. Ar.dhra Sugars Tanuku SSP 3. Coromandel Fertilisers Visakhapatnam UAP 4. Hy erabad Chemicals & Fortilisers Maula Ali SSP 5. Kr.shna Industrial Corporation Nidadavole SSP Assam 6. Chemical Unit of Asso:iated Industries (Assam) Chandrapur SSP 7. Fertilizer Corpn. of India Namrup AS, Urea Bihar 8. Bitar State Superphosphate Factory Sindri Institute SSP 9. Bolaro S:eel Bokaro AS 10. Fertilizer Corpn. of India Barauni Urea 11. Fertl :zer Corpn. of India Sindri AS, ASN, Urea, TSP Urea 2. Ta!a Iron & Steel Co. Jamshedpur AS Delhi 3. D.C.M. Chemical Works Delhi SSP Goa 4. Zuari Agro Chemicals Zuarl Nagar Urea, NPK, DAP, UAP Gujarat 95. Adarsh Chemicals & Ferlilisers Udhna SSP 16. Anil Starch Products Bhavnagar SSP :17.. Anish Chemicals Ahmedabad SSP 18. Gu;arat State Fertilizers Co. Barodd AS, Urea, DAP, ASP :19. Indian Farmers Fertiliser Cooperative Kandla NPK !0. Indian Farmers Fertiliser Cooperative Kalol Urea ti. Paushak Baroda SSP Karnataka t2. CF.amundi Chemicals & Fertilisers Munirabad SSP 13. Gammon Fer-Chems Belagula SSP t4. Mangalore Chemicals & Fertilizers Mangalore Urea Kerala '25. Fertiiisers & Chemicals, Travancore Alwaye AS. APS. ACI, SSP 16. Fertilisers & Chemicals, Travancore Ambalamedu Urea, NPK Madhya Pradesh 17. Dharamsi Morarji Chemical Co. Kumharl SSP :18. Steel Authority of India Bhilal AS Maharashtra 29. Bharat Fertiliser Indusiries Bombay SSP 30. D:0aramsi Morarji Chernical Co. Ambarnath SSP, TSP 11. Fertili:er Corpn. of India Trombay Urea, Urea Nltrophosphate, APSN Nitrophosphate 32. Maharashtra Agro Industries Development Corpn. Panvel SSP 33. Western Chemical Industries Bombay SSP 34. West India Chemicals Loni-Kalbhor SSP Orissa 35. Steel Authority of India Rourkela (Fertiliser Plant) CAN 36. Steel Aurthority of India Rourkela AS 37. Orissa Fertilisers & Chemicals Rourkela Pelolos Pun jab 33. Fertilizer Corpn. of India Nangal CAN Urea Rajasthan 39. Hindus:an Copper Khetri TSP 40. Hindustan Zinc Debari SSP H,PO, Urea 41. Shriram Chemical Industries Kota Urea Tamil Nadu 42. Kothari (Madras) Ennore SSP ACI 43. Coimbatore Pioneer Fertilisers Coimbatore SSP 44. El1-Pierry (India) Ennore AS, APS 45. E1D-Parry (India) Ranipet sSP 46. MaCras Fertilizers Mlanall Urea, NPK 47. Nayvec Ligqite Corpn. Nayveli Urea 48. Premier Fertilisers Cudilalore SSP 49 Sha.v W.allace & Co. Avadi SSP .50 Soughern Petro Cr:emicaf Induitries Tuticorin Uroa, DAP, NPK Table 4.6 Uttar Pradesh 51. Fer:il:zer Corpn. of India Gorakhpur Urea 52. Indian Explosives Panki. Kanpur Urea 53. New Central Jute Mills Varanasi ACI 54. Ralli Chemicals Magarwara SSP West Bengal 55. Fertilizer Coron. of India Durgapur Urea 56. Steel Authority of India Durgapur AS 57. Indian Iron & S:eel Co. Burnpur Kulti AS 58. Jayshree Chemicals 6 Fertilisers Khardah SSP 59. Phosphate Co. Rlshra SSP UNDER IrMPLE&IIENTATION Andhra Pradesh 60. Fertilizer Corpn. of India Ramagundam Urea Cujarat 61. Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizer Co. Chavaj Urea Haryana 62. National Fertilizers Panipat Urea Orissa 63. Fertilizer Corpn. of India Talcher Urea Pun jab 64. National Fertilizers Bhatinda Urea Uttar Pradesh 65. Indian Farmers Fertiliser Cooperative Phulpur Urea West Bengal 66. Fertilizer Corpn. of India Haldia Nitrophosphate Urea APPROVED IN PRINCIPAL Andhra Pradesh 67. Nagerjuna Fertilisers Kakinada Urea, NPK Assam Yet to be 68. Fertilizer Corpn. of India Namrup decided Gujarat 69. Indian Farmners Fertiliser Cooperative Ahmedabad Urea Karnataka 70. Karnata 1967-68 403 30.4 207 41.8 610 34.1 o 1968-69 563 39.7 213 2.9 776 27.3 1969-70 731 29.8 224 5.2 954 22.9 1970-71 833 14.0 228 1.8 1061 11.1 1971-72 949 13.9 290 27.2 1240 16.9 1972-73 1054 11.1 330 13.8 1385 11.7 1973-74 1050 - .4 325 - 1.5 1374 - 0.8 1974-75 1186 12.9 331 1.8 1517 10.4 1975-76 1508 27.2 320 - 3.3 1828 20.5 1976-77 1862 23.5 478 49.4 2340 28.0 1977-78 2000 7.4 670 40.1 2670 14.1 Source: Fertilizer Statistics, 1975-76, and Fertilizer News, July 1978. Tabla 4.16 Tndtaz Statewise Production of NitrogenoadPhoOhatic!ettlizC!± (000 tona) State/Zone N 2 5 1970-71 71-72 72-73 73-74 74-75 75-76 1976-77 1970-71 71-72 72-73 73-74 74-75 75-76 76-77 Central 300 321 364 298 360 363 412 27 . 40 38 33 38 21 43 Kadhya Pradesh 6 5 6 5 6 6. 7 9 14 11 10 14 5 13 Rajasthan 114 107 128 110 86 108 119 8 7 7 4 7 3 10 U.P. 180 209 230 183 268 249 286 2 6 5 5 6 4 6 Delhi - - - - - - - 8 1 15 14 12 9 14 East 135 i43 i46 i55 i/7 215 278 IG 12 17 "7 18 9 1 Assam 27 30 34 36 40 44 93 2 - - - - 1 2 Bihar 77 60 59 61 56 51 52 1 2 2 1 2 - I Orissa 25 48 51 48 64 80 83 - - - 2 2 - a6 West Bengal 6 5 4 10 18 40 50 7 10 15 14 14 8 9 North 55 57 54 62 40 77 80 - - - - - Punjab 55 57 54 62 40 77 80 - - - - - - - South 141 174 225 253 232 415 564 111 135 170 175 165 163 190 Andhra Pradeah 70 65 59 54 47 48 58 67 74 71 72 60 57 81 Karnataka - - - - - 1 50 -- 1 1 a - - - Kerala 30 36 29 50 75 110 121 16 15 14 22 22 22 26 Tamil Nadu 41 73 138 149 111 256 325 28 46 84 81 82 84 83 West 201 254 263 282 376 438 528 80 103 106 100 110 127 233 Gujarat 147 185 203 161 183 257 316 34 37 42 38 51 68 136 Maharashtra 54 69 60 56 58 69 90 46 66 64 62 50 51 76 Goa - - - 65 135 112 121 - - - - - 8 21 All India 833 949 1055 1050 1186 1508 1862 228 290 330 324 331 320 478 a - less than 500 tons Source: Fertilizer Statistics 1970-71 to 1976-77. Table 4.17 India - Zonewise Production of Fertilizer Nutrients ( Percentate ) Central East North South West Total Year N P N+P N P N+P N P N+P N P N+P N P N+P (N/P/N4P) 1977-78 22.8 7.5 17.4 12.4 1.9 11.1 2.9 - 2.1 31.8 43.3 34.6 30.4 47.3 34.6 10o.0 1976-77 22.2 9.1 19.5 14.9 2.5 12.4 4.3 - 3.4 30.3 39.6 32.2 28.3 48.8 32.5 100.0 1975-76 24.0 6.6 21.0 14.2 2.8 12.2 5.1 - 4.2 27.5 51.1 31.6 29.2 39.5 31.0 100.0 1974-75 30.3 11.5 26.2 15.0 5.4 12.9 3.4 - 2.6 .19.6 49.8 26.3 31.7 33.3 32.0 100.0 1973-74 28.4 10.2 24.1 14.7 5.2 12.5 5.9 - 4.5 24.1 53.8 31.1 26.9 30.8 27.8 100.0 1972-73 34.5 11.8 29.5 14.0 5.2 11.7 5.1 - 3.8 21.3 51.5 28.5 25.1 31.5 26.5 100.0 1971-72 33.9 13.8 29.2 15.0 4.1 12.4 6.0 - 4.6 18.4 46.2 24.9 26.7 35.9 28.9 100.0 1970-71 35.8 11.8 30.7 16.2 4.4 13.7 6.6 - 5.2 17.4 48.7 24.1 24.0 35.1 25.0 100.0 1969-70 25.6 12.4 22.4 19.7 5.3 16.2 1113 - 8.6 21.3 52.9 28.9 22.1 29.4. 23.8 100.0 1968-69 10.9 12.6 11.4 27.0 5.6 20.9 14.4 - 10.3 24.8 45.8 30.8 22.9 36.0 26.6 100.0 1967-68 2.2 16.4 7.2 35.0 12.8 27.2 21.4 - 13.9 18.3 37.9 25.2 23.1 32.8 26.5 100.0 Source: Fertilizer Statistics, 1967-68 to 1977-78 A.63 Table 4.18 India: Product Composition of Nttrogenous Fertiliters Production (000 tonnes) Fertilizer Grade 1958-591 1967-68 1971-72 | 1972-73 1973-74 1974-75 1975-76 1976-77 Straight Nitrogenous Amanium sulphate (20.6XN) 392.1 417 582 554 574 583 611 586 (100.0) (23.9) (12.7) (10.1) (11.2) (10.1) (8.5) (6.5) Ammonium sulphate nitrate (26ZN) - 69 30 58 48 27 21 2 (5.0) (0.8) (1.4) (1.1) (0.6) (0.4) (0.02) Urea (46SN) - 208 1237 1413 1408 1734 2197 2863 - (26.7) (60.1) (61.1) (61.8) (67.4) (66.9) (71.0) Calcium aeoniun nLtrato (252N) - 532 412 412 431 406 618 638 (32.8) (10.9) (9.8) (10.3) (8.6) (10.0) (8.7) Amoniun Chloride (252N) - 15 18 14 14 10 15 17 (1.1) (0.5) (0.4) (0.3) (0.2) (0.3) (.2) UP/NPK Fertilizers Amsonium phosphate (16-20-0) - - 103 94 104 120 113 102 sulphate (20-20-0) 92 - 3 20 24 30 33 (18-9-0) I- _ _ _ _ 7 1O (4.2) (1.7) (1.5) (1.5) (2.1) (1.7) (I.4t Aomoniun *ulphete - - - - -- - 20 - Phosphate (19.5-19.5-0) (0.3) - Nitrophosphate (15-15-15) - 96 204* 240 2113 211 181 182 (20-20-0) - - - - - 35 59 (4.6) (4.2) (3.4) (3.0) (2.7) (2.3) (2.2) Dimouium phosphate (18-46-0) - 28 50 69 60 67 53 87 (1.7) (1.0) (1.1) (1.0) (1.0) (0.6) ( .8) Urea amonium phosphate (28-28-0) - 195 175 172 137 181 244 (20-20-0) - - 36 17 - - - 35 (6.6) (4.9) (4.6) (3.2) (3.4) (4.0) U3K complex fertilizers (17-17-17) - - 55 242 209 226 282 266 (18-27-3) - - 5 - - - - - (14-28-14) - - 13- 44 59 34 - 5 (14-34-14) - - 3 28 37 28 12 45 (10-26-26) - - - - - 14 2 55.3 (12-32-16) - - 13 72 - (19-19-19) - - 15 61.4 (24-24-0) - - 94 5.0 (22-22-11) - - 7 9 3 248.0 (1.5) (4.9) (4.7) (4.1) (5.6) (5.2) Total N 80.8 402.6 949 1055 1050 1186 1508 1857 (100.0) (100.0) (100.0) (100.0) (100.0) (100.0) (100.0) (100.0) * Of different grades. o Figure in bracket represents cont-ribution of a particular fertilizer to the total nutrient taken as 100 (vertical). Source: Fertilizer Statistics A. 64 Table 4.19 India: Product Cor.osition of Phosnhatic Fertilizers Strigt Poshais198-5 16768 97-7 Production ('000 tons) .Strs195'3-59 1967-68 1971-72 1972-73 1973-74 1974-75 1975-76 1976-77 Superphosphate (16% w.s. P205) | 194 875 773 789 773 819 461 786 (100) (71.8) (42.7) (38.1) (38.2) (39.6) (23.1) (26.2) High grade super-/ 32 3 - 10 12 2 2 phosphate (3.4) ((0.2) (0.6) (0.4) (0.1) (.1) Triple super (45% w.s. P205) 1 8 5 3 3 2 2 phosphate ( .2) (0.6) (0.5) (0.3) (0.7) (0.3) (.2) NP/NPK Fertilizers Ammonium phosphate (16-20-0) 92 103 94 104 120 113 102 sulphate (20-20-0) 3 20 24 30 33 (18-9-0) - - - - - 7 10 (9.2) (7.2) (5.8) (7.7) (8.7) (8.6) (5.9) Ammonium sulphate (19.5-19.5-0). - - - - 20 1 (1.2) (0.04) Nitrophosphate (15-15-15) 96 2C4 2/ 240 213 211 181 182 (20-20-0) - - - - 35 59 (8.7) (13.7) (10.9) (9.8) (9.6) (10.7) (8.2) Diammonium phosphate (18-46-0) 28 50 69 60 67 53 87.1 (6.7) (7.8) (9.7) (8.6) (9.3) (7.6) (8.4) Urea 2 =onium (28-28-0) _ 195 175 172 137 181 244 phosphate _ 36 17 - - - 33 _ (21.3) (15.8) (14.8) (11.6) (15.9) (15.7) NPK Complex (17-17-17) 55 242 209 226 282 266 fertilisers (18-27-3) 5 - - - _ _ (14-28-14) 13 44 59 34 - 5 (14-35-14) 3 28 37 28 12 45 (10-26-26) - - - 14 2 55 (12-32-16) - - 13 72 - 248 (19-19-19, - - - - 15 61 (24-24-0) - - -- - 9^ 5 (22-22-11) 7 - _ 9 3 - (5.9) (19.1) (20.0) (20.1) (32.5) (35.3) Total P2 05 31 207.1 290 330 325 331 320 478 (100.0) .(100.0) (100.0) (100.0) (M100.) (100.0) (100.0) (100.0) 1/ "Pelofos" (18% availahle P2 05 containing 5% w.s. P 05 2/ of diffcrent grades Source: Fertilizer Statistics A. 65 Table 4.20 India: TnIrtilad Capcritv 0: Nitrogenous Fcrtilizcrs Accordirg to Sources of r edosrtc-k (000 tolns) Year Naphtha Natural £lectric Cole/ Lignite Ammonia Coal Fuel Total Gas Power CC, (Import) Oil 1955-56 - - 1 85 - - 10 - 96.0 (1.0) (88.6) (10.4) (100.0) 1960-61 - - 91.0 147.0 - - 10.0 248.0 (36.7) (59.3) (4.0) (100.0) 1965-66 112 - 91.0 312 70 - - - 585.0 (19.1) (15.6) (53.3) (12.0) - - - (100.0) November 1972 1039 91 84 180 70 - - - 1464.0 (70.9) (6.3) (5.7) (12.3) (4.8) - -_ - (100.0) Octcber 1973 1466.2 45.0 80.0 200.0 70.0 - - 85 1946.2 (75.3) (2.3) (4.1) (10.3) (3.6) - - (4.4) (100.0) Novrember 1974 1551.0 260.0 80.0 201.1 70.0 - - - 2162.1 (71.8) (12.0) (3.7) (9.3) (3.2) - _ _ (100.0) December 1975 1925.0 361.0 80.0 189.1 70.0 - - - 2625.1 (73.3) (13.8) (3.0) (7.2) (2.7) - - __ (100.0) November 1976 2140.0 513.0 80.0 189.0 70.0 32.0 - - 3024.1 (70.7) (17.0) (2.6) (6.3) (2.3) (1.1) - - (100.0) Octnber 1977 a) inder ?rodLction 2140.0 513.0 *80.0 193.8 70.0 72.0 - - 3068.8 (69.8) (16.7) (2.6) (6.3) (2.3) (2.3) * - - (100.0) b) Under Implementation 358.0 - - - - 80.0 456.0 1176.0 2070.0 (17.3) (3.9) (22.0) (56.8) (100.0) c) Approved in 51.0 1187.0 - - - 228.0 725.0 2191.0 Principle (2.3) (54.2) _ _ _ (10.4) (33.1) (100.0) Total for 2549.0 2045.0 80.0 193.8 70.0 152.0 684.0 1901.0 7675.0 1977 (33.0) (27.0) (1.0) (3.0). (1.0) (2.0) (8.0) (25.0) (100.0) Note: 1) Figures up to 1976 revrasent the capacities under production. 2) Figures in parentheses are percentage contribution of each feedstock to total capacity. Sources: 1) S idrnr on Fert4'A.rs tn 4iTd,ao tn t'e 5eventies, 1972: Procncdinns. The FAI, New Dclhi, 1973 p.I11-2/5 (For 155-'`, 1`60-61, lSF5-66 and 1372.) 2) Fertilizer St itztics 197:-73 ti_ u :976-77 (For 1973 through 1977 period). A. 66 Table 4.21 INDIA: CAPACITY OF PHOSPHATE (P20,) AND THE RAW MATERIALS (As on 1.10.1977) ('000 tonnes of P2O0 nutrient/annum) Raw materials Type of fertilisers . . Total 0 0. 0.o I. Factories in production . SSP 208.0 - 12.0 122 - - 232.2 ii. TSP 12.2 156.00 90.0 - - 258.2 Ill. Pelofos 7.6 - - - - - 7.6 lv. NP/NPK fertilisers 365.5 - - - 54.0 281.00 700.5 I. Total 593.3 156.0 102.0 12.2 54.0 281.0 1,198.5 (49.5) (13.0) (8.5) (1.0) (4.5) (23.5) (100.6) II. Projects under implementation I. TSP _- - - li. NPINPK fertiiisers - - - - 150.0 - 150.0 lii. Others - - 26.0@ - - - 26.0 II. Total - _ 26.0 - 150.0 - 176.0 C - ) (-) (14.8) (-) (85.2) (-) (100.0) Ill. Projects approved In principle I. NP/NPK fertilisers 382.0 - - - - - 382.0 II. Others 150.0@ - - - - - 150.0 Ill. Total 532.0 - - - - - 532.0 (100.0) C-) C-) C-) C-) (-) (100.0) Total (1+11+111) SSP 208.0 - 12.0 12.2 - - 232.2 TSP 12.0 156.0 90.0 - - - 258.2 Pelofos 7.6 - - - - - 7.6 NP/NPK fertilisers 747.5 - - - 204.0 281.0 1,232.5 Others 150.0 - 26.0 _ _ - 176.0 GRAND TOTAL (1+11+li1) 1,125.3 156.0 128.0 12.2 204.0 281.0 1,906.5 (59.0) (8.3) (6.7) (0.6) (10.7) (14.7) (100.0) * One of the factories uses imported monoammonium phosphate occasionally. During the Sixth Plan it will have its own phosphoric acid plant. * It would use both pyrites and sulphur. @ ,The phosphoric acidis planned to be marketed. Note: 1. Rockphosphate is the basic raw materialiwhich is processed with H,SO,, HNO, and H,P04 to release P O, in the desired concentration. Factories based on imported HJPO, do not require either rock or sulphur as such to manufacture phosphatic fertilisers. 2. Figures in brackets include the percentage contribution through a lertiliser feedstock to the total (horizontal). Source: Fertilizer Statistics, 1976-77. the FAI, "ew Delhi, 1977. A. 67 Table 4.22 India: Production of Raw Materials Used in Fcrtilizer Indus.rv (000 tons;) Year Rock Sulphur Sulphuric Crude Natural Fuel Phosphate in all Acid Oil Gas* Naphtha Oil Forms 1965-66 - - 648.5 3022 1966-67 - - 737.9 4647 1967-68 - 90.0 912.9 5667 1968-69 - 108.0 1023.2 5853 1317 937 1969-70 96.9 119.0 1213.7 6723 1384 1214 1970-71 195.1 144.0 1200.1 6809 1424 1253 4239 1971-72 232.9 138.0 1264.1 7185 1509 1181 4098 1972-73 193.9 150.0 1339.4 7373 1565 3688 1973-74 133.3 130.0 1412.3 7198 1368 3931 1974-75 428.9 154.0 1457.7 7490 1648 4243 1975-76 386.6 165.0 1445.2 8283 1915 4980 1976-77 562.6 153.0 1778.1 8659 2082 4782 * measured in m'llion cubic mc ers Note: 1. Figures for sulphur, crude oil, natural gas, naplitha and ijel oil relate to the calendar year corresponding to the year first mentioned. 2. Figures for Sulphuric Acid are onthe July-June basis up to 1966-67. From 1967-68 onward, the April-I'arch Year is used. Source: Fertilizer Statistics, 1970-71 to 1976-77. A-68 Table 4.23 INDIA: PRODUCTION OF ROCKPHOSPHATE AND SULPHUR 1969-70 to 1976-77 (April.March) ('000 tonnes) Rockphosphate I Sulphur-in-all-forms' (tonnes of S/Equivalent) Year Re- Smelter PPCLU Rajas- M.P.3 Total covered Pyrites gases, lotal than' 1 sulphur |gypsu. 1969-70 - 96.9 - 96.9 4.0 5.0 110.0 119.0 1970-71 - 195.1 - 195.1 4.0 20.0 120.0 144.0 1971-72 0.7 232.2 - 232.9 2.0 10.0 126.0 138.0 1972-73 7.3 191.6 - 198.9 2.0 13.0 135.0 150.0 1973-74 9.9 123.4 - 133.3 2.0 128.0 130.0 1974-75 16.9 402.3 9.7 428.9 3.0 25.0 126.0 154.0 1975-76 7.9 350.7 28.0 386.6 3.0 32.0 130.0 165.0 1476-7? 21.4 500.2 41.0 562.6 3.0 35.0 115.0 153.0 a. Production of Rockphosphate at Mussoorie (U.P.) commenced from April 1971. b. Production of Rockphosphate at Udaipur (Rajasthan) commenced from April 1969. c. Production of Rockphosphate at Jhabua (M.P.) commenced from May 1974. d. Data relate to the calendar year corresponding to the year first mentioned. Reproduced from Fertilizer Statistics, 1970-71 to 1976-77. A. 69 Table 4.24 INDIA: Rock Phosphate Resources | ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Tonnage Si. State Area Nature of Associated rock T g% P2O0 No. occurrence Provediprobable possible 1 ~. Rajasthan Udaipur District a) Maton Phosphatic stromatolites. Dolomites & cherts 2.260,000 3.120Q000 21-29 per cent b) Jhamarkotra -do- -do- II. 13,000 - +30 per cent 646, 65,000 1S.00,000 20-30 per cent c) Kanpur -do- Dolomites 3.930,000 - 11.6 per cent d) Kharbaria-Ka- Gurha -do- Dolomites - S.00.000 22-25 per cent e) Dakan Kotra -do- Dolomites - 1.400.C00 IS per cent t) Neemuch mata -do- Dolomites and cherts - 3.30.000 S-10 per cent g) Bsdagaon -do- -do- 3.47.000 2.59,000 4-24 per cent h) Sisarma -do- -do- -- 8.40.000 8-10 per cent jaisalmer District a) Birmani Grains. pallets Sandstone, shale, limestone 43.40,000 - 12.91 per cent and thin bands Fatehgarh Grains, thin bands In clayey matter and ferruginous - - S- 8 per cent and blotches sandstone 2. Madhya Pradesh Jhabua District Stromatolitic Dolomitic marble and chert 472.0000 - +29 per cent Khatamba and 221,2000 - +12 per cent Kelkua 3. Uttar Pradesh Dehradun and Tehri Bedded deposits Black-shale chert association, 90.00,000 1c,00,000 13-30 | Garhwal district of lower Tal formation Bhusti, Maldeota, Kina, Mathlangaon Masrana etc. 4. Tamil Nadu Tiruchirapalli Dist. Nodules Utatur beds _ 2,000.000 21.14-26.50 S. Laccadive Islands Union Territory _ Guano deposits - 92,000 13.11 17,000 24-86 : 6. Bihar Palamau district Grains and pellets Calcareaous shale underlying N.A. - S.E6-7.8 Bhawnathpur Kairajat limestone SOUI CE: (I) Gcological Survey of India. Western Region. Jaipur. (iI) Department of Mines & Geology, Giovt. of Rajasthan. Udalpur. Table 4.25 India: Consumption of Raw Materials in Fertilizer Industry ('000 tons) Fuel Phosphoric Year Naphtha Oil Acid 1972-73 968.1 235.2 1973-74 1071.8 284.3 164.8 1974-75 1242.0 417.0 173.1 1975-76 1468.0 411.0 210.2 Source: Fertilizer Statistics, 1976-77. The FAI, New Delhi, 1977. A.71 Table 4.26 India: Fertilizer Imports (1952-53 to 1976-77) (000 tons) Nitroenou Phophati Potssic Total Total Value Year Nitroge(N) Phosphatic o 0tassi Quantity of Imports (P2 5) (K20) (N+P205+K20) (m. rupees) 1952-53 44.0 _ 3.0 47.0 45.6 1953-54 19.0 _ 7.0 26.0 25.2 1954-55 20.0 - 11.0 31.0 30.2 1955-56 53.0 - 10.0 63.0 73.3 1956-57 57.0 - 15.0 72.0 77.7 1957-58 110.0 - 13.0 123.0 158.8 1958-59 97.0 - 22.0 119.0 113.1 1959-60 142.0 4.0 33.0 179.0 162.9 1960-61 399.0 - 20.0 419.0 121.8 1961-62 307.0 - 75.0 382.0 141.1 1962-63 244.0 10.0 41.0 295.0 236.9 1963-64 228.0 13.0 40.0 281.0 187.1 1964-65 232.0 12.0 57.0 301.0 220.8 1965-66 326.0 14.0 73.0 413.0 411.9 1966-67 632.0 148.0 118.0 898.0 1288.2 1967-68 867.0 349.0 270.0 1486.0 1933.0 1968-69 844.0 138.0 213.0 1195.0 1629.2 1969-70 667.0 94.0 120.0 881.0 1167.7 1970-71 477.0 32.0 120.0 629.0 767.8 1971-72 481.0 248.0 268.0 997.0 899.7 1972-73 665.0 204.0 325.0 1194.0 1212.6 1973-74 659.0 213.0 370.0 1242.0 1767.5 1974-75 884.0 286.0 437.0 1607.0 5991.3 1975-76 996.0 361.0 278.0 1635.0 7227.7 1976-77 750.1 22-R 277.8 1050.; 2202.2 1977-78 758.1 163.9 598.9 1520.9 N.A. 1982-83* 1150.0 475.0 1000.0 2625.0 2625.0 * Targets Source: i) Fertilizer Statistics, 1976-77. The Fertilizer Association of India, New Delhi, 1977. ii) Fertilizer News, July 1978 iii) Draft Five Year Plan, 1978-83. A. 72 Table 4.27 India: Import of Nitrogenous Fertilizers (O000 tonnes) | ~~~April-March Material and origin of import April-March 1975-76 | 1976-77 Ammonium Sulphate 21°o N U.S.S.R. 45.3 Ita y 57.5 Total 102.8 (150.5) Ammonium Sulphate Nitrate 26%o N West Germany 10.3 (18.5) Urea 456 N Saudi Arabia 20.0 49.0 Bulgaria 98.5 60.0 Czechos!ovakla 9.5 East Germany _ 34.0 Holland 54.0 288.7 Italy 75.1 88.2 Japan 421.5 92.2 Kuwait. 119.6 74.2 Norway 10.0 40.1 Poland 237.8 200.9 Rumania 44.7 195.0 Sweden 5.0 U.S.A. 119.6 182.3 U.S.S.R. 244.2 138.7 South Korea _ 33.0 Qatar 7.4 120.6 Denmark 2.3 Total 1,469.1 1,596.9 (3,544.6) (1,772.7) Calcium Ammonium Nitrate 260% N Sweden 20.0 Holland 47t1 Rumania 94.6 4.5 Poland 30.5 Belgium 2.0 Total 194.2 4.5 (339.5) (4.9) Figures in brackets indicate value in Rs. million. Source: Ministry of Agriculture & Irrigation, New Delhi. A. 73 Table 4.28 India: Import of Phosphatic and Complex Fertilizers ('000 tonnes) April-March Materiallorigin of import 1975-76 1976-77 A. NPs: (a) 18-46-0 U.S.A. 442.f 30.1 Poland 6.6 Total (a) 449.2 30.1 (1,167.8) (43.4) (b) 20-20-0 Belgium 10.7 France 39.7 Italy 31.1 Norway 6.0 U.K. 40.7 34.6 U.S.A. 7.6 West Germany 115.1 - - Total 250.8 34.6 (40.2) (c) 24-24-0 West Germany 9.0 France 88.7 Total 97.7 (d) 23-23-0 Holland 8.0 Total 8.0 NPs Total (a to d) 358.5 34.6 (835.6) (40.2) B. NPKs: (a) 13-13-20 West Germany 1.6 (b) 14-14-14 U.K. 10.0 _ (c) 17-17-17 France 55.4 West Germany 5.2 U.K. 15.0 Total 75.6 (d) 15-15-15 West Germany 60.4 U.K. 49.4 13.4 France 12.9 Austria 28.7 Itlay 24.1 Holland 9.8 Total 185.3 13.4 (e) 17-17-16 U.K. 10.0 Total 10.0 NPKs Total (a to e) 282.5 13.4 (650.1) (22.8) Figures in brackets indicate value in Rs. million. Source: Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation, New Delhi. A. 74 Table 4.29 India: Import of Potassic Fertilizers (1975-76 and 1976-77) ('000 tonnes) April-March MateriaI origin of import _- 1975-75 ( 1976-77 Muriate of Potash 600% K,O Canada 160.0 100.0 East Germany 195.7 185.1 West Germany - 149.2 U.S.S.R. 10.5 16.7 Total 867.1 451.0 (262.8) (350.8) Sulphate of Potash 50% K,O Wast Germany 10.5 Total 10.5 (12.3) Figures in brackets indicate value in Rs. million. Source: Indian Potash Ltd., Madras. Table 4.30 India: Import of Fertilizer Materials - 1967-68 to 1976-77 (April-March) Q-0uantiRy In '000 tonnog V--Valuu in Rs. million Nitrogenous NP/NPKs Potassic Total Year E . E 0 O 00 E fi E I 4 E - | E '.E _ o Vau > V~~~~~~~~~~ 46. 7. 598. 49. IC. - 7.!8.z80 - 7. . ,3. 10C9-70 Q 700.1 *--0E 0E 8 - E -0 4.0 E. UE~U E E,.: c oc" EO (i M CL 0cEL -E' E-9 E:2 0~~~~~~s c i C i0 .1 1- 2-.- - 14 E -ea -4cL B z.. a - - 11 1967-68 Q 1,053.2 16.1 918.4 125.0 50.7 - 258.4 614.7 90.0 - - 439.0 5.0 868.7 348.7 270.2 V 3468.9 7.0 598.9 49.7 16.9 - 174.5 382.4 58.0 - - 171.8 2.5 1,933.1 1968-69 Q 1,255.8 10.5 1,028.6 90.0 46.6 27.0 50.2 216.2 113.0 - - 326.0 4.0 844.1 137.5 213.2 V 440.2 4.6 703.1 37.9 18.0 17.0 33.4 168.3 78.1 - - 126.9 1.8 1,629.2 1069-70 Q 700.1 2 0 938.1 82.9 - 8.9 - 125.1 184.0 - - 152.0 4.0 607.2 94.1 120.4 V 262.8 - 620.7 35.5 - 3.3 - 6 60.2 124.7 - - 52.4 2.1 1,167.7 1970-71 Q 83.3 24.6 779.8 219.8 - 17.4 - 12.0 121.0 - - 157.0 24.0 477.3 32.4 119.8 V 27.5 10.3 458.9 108.8 - 9.7 - 7.1 65.9 - - 60.7 18.9 767.9 1971-72 Q 186.6 32.0 549.6 317.2 - - - 352.8 289.0 - - 362.0 - 481.3 247.8 268.2 V 31.2 11.4 240.4 113.7 - - - 200.0 183.6 - - 110.4 - 899.7 1972-73 Q 128.2 - 1,008.4 317.7 - 56.4 347.8 119.0 12.0 - 504.0 6.1 665.4 204.7 325.3 V 27.5 - 507.9 121.9 - 31.8 - 273.8 76.6 9.6 - 160.2 3.2 1,212.6 1973-74 Q 75.9 2.0 1,033.9 183.4 - 239.8 - 340.2 55.0 - - 607.0 5.0 658.8 212.7 370.4 V 39.0 1.8 737.1 105.6 - 202.0 - 359.8 44.2 - - 275.0 3.0 1,767.5 1974-75 Q 235.1 13.6 1,244.1 359.6 30.0 182.7 - 435.9 285.0 - 5.0 649.9 10.0 883.8 285.9 437.3 V 261.5 17.2 2,711.7 559.6 48.8 323.9 - 982.1 593A4 - 14.8 467.4 11.6 5,991.3 1975-76 Q 96.0 10.0 1,545.0 176.0 30.0 - - 536.0 618.0 - - 390.0 - 996.0 381.0 278.0 V 143.7 17.6 3,668.4 274.0 47.6 - - 1,477.6 1,271.5 - - 327.4 - 7,227.7 1976-77 Q - - 1,596.9 4,503.0 - 34.6 - 30.1 13.4 - - 441.0 10.5 750.1 22.8 277.8 V - - 1,772.7 4.9 - 40.2 - 43.4 22.8 - - 305.8 12.3 2,202.2' *Provisional Source: Ministry of Agriculture & Irrigation, New Delhi. A.76 Table 4.31 India: Ratio of Production and Imports to Total Consumption (1952-53 to 1976-77) (Percentage) N 2___ 205 Ratio of Produc- Ratio of Imports Ratio of Produc- Ratio of tion to to tion to Imports to Consumption Deficit Consumption Consumption Deficit Consumption 1952-53 92 8 76 160 _ 1953-54 59 41 21 166 . _ 1954-55 72 28 21 95 _ 1955-56 72 28 49 95 - 1956-57 64 36 46 111i- 1957-58 54 46 73 118 - 1958-59 47 53 56 105 - _ 1959-60 37 63 62 95 - 1960-61 53 47 188 101 - 1961-62 62 38 123 108 - - 1962-63 58 42 73 106 - 12 1963-64 58 42 60 93 7 11 1964-65 44 56 42 88 12 8 1965-66 41 59 37 90 10 11 1966-67 42 58 86 59 41 59 1967-68 39 61 84 46 54 78 1968-69 47 53 70 56 44 36 1969-70 54 46 49 54 46 23 1970-71 56 44 32 42 58 6 1971-72 53 47 27 52 48 44 1972-73 57 43 36 57 43 35 1973-74 57 43 36 50 50 33 1974-75 67 33 50 70 30 61 1975-76 74 26 47 70 30 72 1976-77 75 25 30 75 25 19 1977-78 69 31 26 77 23 19 Source: Calculated from the data available in Table 3.2 Tuiae 4.J3 India: Consumption, Production, Imports and Excess Supply of NLtrogenous Fertilizers (1952-53 to 1976-77) '000 tons Percentage Excess Supply as% of Inventory Consum ption Consumption as% of Targeted Tartet Actual Production Imports Inventory Total Supply Excess Supply Actual Tarjtet Consumption 1952-53 NA 57.8 53.1 44.0 0 97.1 39.3 68 NA 1953-54 Is 89.3 52.9' 19.0 39.3 111.5 22.2 25 if 1954-55 It 94.8 68.5 20.0 22.2 110.7 15.9 17 is 1955-56 ., 107.5 76.9 53.0 15.9 145.8 38.3 36 .. 1956-57 .* 123.1 78.8 57.0 38.3 174.1 51.0 41 of 1957-58 of 149.0 81.1 110.0 51.0 242.1 93.1 62 1958-59 172.6 80.8 97.0 93.1 270.9 98.3 57 1959-60 " 229.3 83.7 142.0 98.3 324.0 94.7 41 i .t 1960-61 376 211.7 112.0 399.0 94.7 605.7 394.0 186 105 25 1961-62 400 249.8 154.3 307.0 394.0 855.3 605.5 242 151 99 1962-63 NA 333.0 194.2 244.0 605.5 1043.7 710.7 213 NA 1963-64 376.8 219.1 228.0 710.7 1157.8 781.0 207 1964-65 555.2 243.2 232.0 781.0 1256.2 701.0 126 it 1965-66 1000 574.8 237.9 326.0 701.0 1264.9 690.1 120 69 70 1966-67 1000 737.8 309.0 632.0 690.1 1631.1 893.3 121 89 69 1967-68 1350 1034.6 402.6 867.0 893.3 2162.9 1128.3 109 84 66 1968-69 1700 1208.6 563.0 844.0 1128.3 2535.3 1326.7 110 78 66 1969-70 1700 1356.0 730.6 667.0 1326.7 2724.3 1368.3 101 80 78 1970-71 2000 1479.0 832.5 477.0 1368.3 2677.8 1198.8 81 60 68 1971-72 2400 1798.0 949.2 481.0 1198.8 2629.0 831.0 46 35 50 1972-73 2700 1839.0 1054.5 665.0 831.0 2550.5 711.5 39 26 31 1973-74 3200 1829.0 1049.9 659.0 711.5 2420.4 591.4 32 18 22 1974-75 2960 1765.7 1186.6 884.0 591.4 2662.0 896.3 51 30 20 1975-76 3400 2148.6 1508.0 996.0 896.3 3400.3 1251.7 58 58 26 1976-77 3400 2457.1 1862.0 750.0 1251.7 3863.7 1406.6 57 41 37 Table 4.33 India: Consumption, Production, Imports and Excess Supply of Phosphatic Fertilizers (1952-53 to 1976-77) '000 tons -Percentage Excess Supply Consumption ~~~~~~~~ ~~ ~~~~~~a. 2 o f I Inventory Consumption Consumption !as% of Targeted Target Actual Production Imports Inventory Total Supply Excess Supply Actual Target Consumption 1952-53 NA 4.6 7.4 __ -- 7.4 2.8 61 NA NA 1953-54 t 8.3 13.8 __ 2.8 16.6 8.3 100 1 .l 1954-55 of 15.0 14.3 __ 8.3 22.6 7.6 51 of 1955-56 so 13.0 12.4 __ 7.6 20.0 7.0 54 If 1956-57 of 15.9 17.6 __ 7.0 24.6 7.0 44 is 1957-58 21.9 25.8 _ _ 7.0 32.8 10.9 50 Is 1958-59 29.5 31.0 -- 10.9 41.9 12.4 42 of 1959-60 * 53.9 51.4 4.0 12.4 67.8 13.9 26 it 1960-61 122.0 53.1 53.7 -- 13.9 67.6 14.5 27 12 11 ? 1961-62 100.0 60.5 65.4 -- 14.5 79.9 19.4 32 19 15 X 1962-63 NA 82.8 88.3 10.0 19.4 117.7 34.9 42 NA NA 1963-64 . 116.5 107.8 13.0 34.9 155.7 39.2 34 It o 1964-65 148.7 131.0 12.0 39.2 182.2 33.5 23 n A 1965-66 400.0 132.5 118.8 14.0 33.5 166.3 33.8 26 8 8 1966-67 370.0 248.6 145.7 148.0 33.8 327.5 78.9 32 21 9 1967-68 500.0 334.8 207.1 349.0 78.9 635.0 300.2 90 60 '16 1968-69 650.0 382.1 213.2 138.0 300.2 651.4 269.3 70 41 46 1969-70 650.0 416.0 223.7 94.0 269.3 587.0 171.0 41 26 41 1970-71 750.0 541.0 228.1 32.0 171.0 431.1 -109.9 9 9 23 1971-72 930.0 558.2 290.0 248.0 0 538.0 -20.2 9 9 0 1972-73 1150.0 581.3 330.0 204.0 0 554.0 -27.3 9 9 0 1973-74 1400.0 649.7 324.5 213.0 0 537.5 -112.2 9 a 0 1974-75 860.0 471.5 331.2 286.0 0 617.2 145.7 31 17 0 1975-76 1035.0 466.8 319.7 361.0 145.7 826.4 359.6 77 35 14 1976-77 870.0 635.3 478.0 22.8* 359.6 860.4 -9.6 -- -- 41 Table 4.34A India: Expected Production of 'N' from Operating Units and Firm Projects ('000 tons) Capacity 1977-78 78-79 79-80 80-81 81-82 82-83 83-84 84-85 85-86 86-87 87-88 I. Operating Units: A. Public Sector 1. Sindri 90 14 50 50 60 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 2. Nangal 80 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 3. Trpmbay 81 82 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 4. Go'rakhpur 131 90 100 100 100 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 5. Namrup 197 132 170 170 170 170 170 170 170 170 170 170 6. Durgapur 152 80 100 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 7. Barauni i52 68 120 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 8. Udyogmandal 182 46 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 9. Cochin I 152 76 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 10. Cochin II 40 25 30 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 11. Rourkela 120 75 90 90 90 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 12. Neyveli 70 40 40 40 40 50 55 55 55 55 55 55 13. Madras 176 141 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 14. By-Products 20 22 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 Total of A 1543 961 1180 1220 1230 1270 1275 1275 1275 1275 1275 1275 B. Private Sector 1. Varanasi 10 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 2. Ennore 16 9 5 - - - - - - - - - 3. Baroda 216 169 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 4. Vizag 83 65 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 5. Kota 152 120 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 6. Kanpur 200 187 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 7. Goa 171 160 155 155 155 155 155 155 155 155 155 155 8. Tuticorin 258 185 220 220 220 220 220 220 220 220 220 220 9. Mangalore 160 96 136 136 136 136 136 136 136 136 136 136 10. By-Products 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 Total of B 1270 1000 1080 1075 1075 1075 1075 1075 1075 1075 1075 1075 C. Co-op. Sector 1. IFECO 2151 200 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 Total of A, B & C 3028 2155 2440 2475 2485 2525 2530 2530 2530 2530 2530 2530 Cont'd ...2 Table 4.34A Page 2 ('000 tons) CoQ- Capac- mis- ity sion- ('000 lng Unit T/a) Date 1977-78 78-79 79-80 80-81 81-82 82-83 83-84 84-85 85-86 86-87 87-88 II. Prolects under implementation D. Public Sector 1. Nangal Exp. 152 3/78 25 70 120 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 2. Trombay IV 75 4/78 14 40 55 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 3. Bhatinda 235 7/78 - 80 160 195 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 4. Sindri Mod. 129 10/78 - 30 90 105 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 5. Haldia 152 1/79 - 20 85 120 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 6. Panipat 235 1/79 - 30 135 160 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 7. Talcher 228 4/79 - - 115 160 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 8. Ramagundam 228 4/79 - - 115 160 180 180 180 180 180 180 180 9. Trombay V 130 10/80 - - - 35 85 105 110 110 110 110 110 1564 39 270 875 1130 1280 1300 1305 1305 1305 1305 1305 E. Private Sector 1. Narmada V.C. 273 4/80 - - - 135 200 230 230 230 230 230 230 F. Co-op. Sector 1. IFFCO, Phulphur 228 9/79 - - 75 145 185 195 195 195 195 195 195 TOTAL (D+E+F) 2065 39 270 950 1410 1665 1725 1730 1730 1730 1730 1730 G. Total (A to F) 5093 2200 2710 3425 3895 4190 4255 4260 4260 4260 4260 4260 H. Production Loss at 5Z -135 -170 -195 -210 -215 .215 -215 -215 -215 -215 I. Net Produc- 2200 2575 3255 3700 3980 4040 4045 4045 4045 4045 4045 tion (G-H) Source: The Working Group Report, 1978, Annex 2. A. 81 Table 34.B India: Nitrogen Capacity Planning for 100% Self Sufficiency New Start. and Expected Production ('000 tons) Project Capacity Start Up Date of Date Production 80-81 81-82 82-83 83-84 84-85 85-86 86-87 87-88 h Public Sector: 1. Asas Unit 152 7/78 1/82 - 20 85 115 130 130 130 130 2. Korb& 228 4/79 10/82 - - 50 125 160 IS0 180 180 3. Revas 1 345 7/78 7182 - - 130 235 285 290 290 290 4. Rawas 1I 345 1/79 1/83 - - 40 190 265 290 290 290 T o t a 1 1070 - 20 305 665 840 890 890 890 B. Private Sector: 5. -arginal Naphtha Expansion 100 100 4/78 7/80 30 65 80 85 85 85 85 85 6. Nagarjuna Farts. 228 4/78 7/81 - 85 150 185 190 190 190 190 T o t a 1 328 30 150 230 270 275 275 275 275 C. Cooperative Sector: 7. Cujarat 1 345 1/79 1/83 - - 40 190 265 290 290 290 D. Unidentified Additional Projects: 8. Cujarat II 345 7/79 7/83 - - - 130 235 285 290 290 9. Project A 345 4/80 4/84 - - - - 170 255 290 290 10. Project B 345 4/81 4/85 - - - - - 170 255 290 11. Project C 345 1/82 1/86 - - - - - 40 190 265 12. Project D 345 1/83 7/86 - - - - - - 130 235 13. Project e 345 7/83 1/87 - - - - - - 40 190 14. Project F 345 1/84 7/87 - - - - - - - 130 S o t a1 2415 130 405 750 1195 1690 Grand Total (A+E+C+D) 4158 30 170 575 1255 1785 2205 2650 3145 Production Lose e 5S - 10 30 60 90 110 130 155 Net Production 30 160 540 1195 1695 2095 2520 2990 Note: It is epected that, with experience gained, projects D, E&F could be implenented in a shorter period of 3½ years against 4 years provided for the earlier projects. Source: Report of the Working Group, 1978. Table 4.34C India: NitroRen - Summary of Demand and Supply at 100% Self-Sufficiency ('000 tons) Description 77-78 78-79 79-80 80-81 81-82 82-83 83-84 84-85 85-86 86-87 87-88 1. Phasing of installation of capacity (as at the end of the year) a. Operating units + projects under erection 3180 4006 4674 5077 5077 5077 5077 5077 5077 5077 5077 b. New projects 100 480 1743 2088 2433 3123 3813 4158 Total 3180 4006 4674 5177 5557 6820 7165 7510 8200 8890 9235 2. Anticipated production from a. Operating units + projects under erection 2200 2575 3255 3700 3980 4040 4045 4045 4045 4045 4045 b. New projects 30 160 540 1195 1695 2095 2520 2990 > ;0 Total 2200 2575 3255 3730 4140 4580 5240 5740 6140 6565 7035 .3. Average capacity -69% 64X 70% 72%- 74% 67% 731- 76% 75% 73% 76% utilization including new capacity 4. Projected demand 3000 3400 3700 4000 4300 4760 5200 5620 6050 6550 7075 5. Surplus (+)/ -800 -825 -445 -270 -160 -180 +40 +120 +90 +15 -40 Deficit (-) 6. Level of self- 70% 76% 88% 93% 961 96% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% sufficiency Source: Report of the Working Group, 1978. Table 35A India: Expected Production of P 0 ('000 tons) Sr. Capac- No. Plant/Proiect its 77-78 78-79 79-80 80-81 81-82 82-83 83-84 84-85 85-86 86-87 87-88 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. I. OPERATING UNITS A. PUBLIC SECTOR 1. Single Super- 38 21 20 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 Phosphate *A 2. Trombay 36 41 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 3. Udyogamandal 37 23 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 4. Madras 112 95 90 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 5. Cochin II 114 34 70 85 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 Total of A 337 214 240 265 270 270 270 270 270 270 270 270 B. PRIVATE SECTOR 6. Ennore 10 11 5 - - - - - - - - - 7. Baroda 50 34 35 40 45 45 45 45 45 45 8. Vizag 104 70 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 9. Goa 42 35 35 35 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 10. Tuticorin 51 22 30 35 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 lie DMCC-TSP I! - - 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 12. SSP Units 183 125 145 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 Total of B 451 297 330 345 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 Cont'd ... 2 Table 35A Page 2 Page-2 ('000 tons) 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. , 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 13. Kandla 127 151 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 110 II. PROJECTS UNDER IMPLEMENTATION D. PUBLIC SECTOR 14. Khetri 90 12 50 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 15. Sindri 156 13 80 110 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 Rationalization 16. Trombay IV 75 13 40 55 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 17. Haldia 75 - - 30 55 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 Total of D 396 38 170 265 305 310 310 310 310 310 310 310 Grand Total (A to D) 1311 700 850 985 1045 1050 1050 1050 1050 1050 1050 1050 Production loss at 5Z - - 40 45 45 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 Net Production - 700 810 940 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 Source: Report of the Working Group, 1978. Table 4.35B India: Capacity Planning for 100l Self-Sufficiency in P205 ('000 tons) Starting Production Project Date Date Capacity 79-80 80-81 81-82 82-83 83-84 84-85 85-86 86-87 87-88 A. Cooperative Sector 1. Kandla 4/78 4/80 43 20 30 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 B. Private Sector 1. Kakinada 4/80 4/82 81 - - - - 40 60 65 65 65 2. MPIDC 1/79 4/82 50 - - - 25 35 40 40 40 40 > oo Total of Private Sector 131 25 75 100 105 105 105 C. Public Sector Unidentified 4. Paradeep 7/78 10/81 300 - 75 180 225 240 240 240 240 5. A. 7/79 10/82 300 - - 75 180 225 240 240 240 6. B. 1/80 4/83 200 - - - 100 150 160 160 160 7. C. 7/81 10/84 300 - - - - 75 180 225 240 8. D. 1/82 4/85 200 - - - - - 100 150 160 9. E. 1/83 4/86 300 - - - - - - 150 225 10. F. 1/84 4/87 300 - - - - - - - 150 Total 1900 75 255 565 690 920 1165 1415 D. Grand Total (A to C) 2074 20 30 110 315 615 825 1060 1305 1555 E. Production loss Q 5% - - - 5 15 30 40 50 65 75 F. Net Production 20 30 105 300 585 785 1010 1240 1480 Source: Report of the Working Group. 1978. Table 4.35C India: Summary of Supply and Demand at 100X Self Sufficiency in P 205 ('000 tons) Description 1977-78 78-79 79-80 80-81 81-82 82-83 83-84 84-85 85-86 86-87 87-88 1. Phasing of installation of capacity (as at the end of the year) a) operating units and projects under implementation 1023 1254 1301 1301 1301 1301 1301 1301 1301 1301 1301 b) New projects - - 43 43 343 693 974 1274 1474 1774 2074 Total 1023 1254 1344 1344 1644 1994 2275 2575 2775 3075 3375 2. Anticipated Pto- duction from a) Operating units and under erec- tion 700 820 940 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 b) New projects 20 30 105 300 585 785 1010 1240 1480 Total 700 820 960 1030 1105 1300 1585 1785 2010 2240 2480 3. Average capacity utilization in- cluding new capacity 68% 65Z 711 77% 67% 65% 70% 69% 72% 73% 73% 4. Projected Demand 800 870 990 1110 1260 1425 1600 1790 2000 2240 2500 5. Surplus (+)/ -100 -50 -30 -80 -155 -125 -15 -5 + 10 - -20 Deficit - 6. Level of self sufficiency 88% 94% 97% 93% 88% 91% 99% 100% 100% 100% 99% Source: Re!pQrt of the Working Group, 1978. A. 87 Table 4.36 India: Import of Rockphosphate and Sulphur (1967-68 to 1976-77) ('000 tonnes) Country |1967-68 1568-6911969.70 1970-71 1971-72 1972-73 1973-741 1974-75 1975-76: 1976-77 ROCKPHOSPHATE 1. Jordan 367 4312 297 47 349 391 358 469 113 152 2. Morocco 0.1 '!0 14 183 87 79 199 234 127 168 3. Senegal - 10 - 27 - 25 12 - 47 53 4. Tunisia 19 47 - 18 86 - - - - 5. Florida 95 250 288 451 320 380 310 228 226 212 6. Japan - 4 - - - - - - _ _ 7. Spanish Sahara - - - - - - 11 8. Egypt 60 74 47 30 - - 9. Kenya - 8 - 10. Algeria 35 -- - - - - - - - - 11. Togo 18 - - - - - - - 12. West Africa (Spain) 5 _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 13. Yugoslavia 5 - - - - - - - Total 604 845 646 756 842 875 879 942 513 585 (93.3) (128.5) (87.2) (123.2) (112.0) (137.0) (300.0) (330.4) (247.5) (221.7) SULPHUR 1. Canada --245 214 208 292 193 131 149 83 79 225 2. Iran - -- 25 84 220 146 247 288 157 -147 3. Poland 29 :20 - 153 205 259 41 107 79 78 4; Iraq - - - - - 3 115 124 178 140 5. Kuwait - - - 3 10 16 13 17 66 6. U.S.S.R. 4 - - 10 - - 21 33 26 43 7. France 29 8 21 7 - - - - 7 8. U.S.A. 239 73 6 - - - 11 9. Poland (Iraq) - - 58 - _ _ _ 29 - 47 10. Germany, Fed. Rep. of 11 0.6 0.2 - - - - - - - 11. Mexico 64- 17 - - - - - - - 40 12. U.K. 0.1 1.2 0.1 - - - - - - - 13. Bolivia 13 5 - - - 14. German, Dem. Rep. 2 15. Behrain - - - - - - - 26 16. D.P.R.K. - - - - - - - - - _ 17. Netherlands -31 Neg. Neg. 18. Qatar - '- - 5 Total 668 338 324 547 621 589 5S9 688 562 795 (367.4) (177.3) (107.0) (94.4) (106.0) (97.0) (176.6) (351.0) (277.4) 311.3) Fig4res in brackets indicate the value in Rs. million. Source: 1. Monthly Statistics ofthe Foreign Trade of India. 2. Minerais & Metals Trading Corporation of India Ltd., New Delhi. Table 5.1 INDIA: cuRRENT PRICES OF FERTILISERS IN TERMS OF NUTRIENT (Incluslve of Excise Duty) (50 kg packing) Retail price of nutrient (Rs.) .iw Effective from Nutrient Aninionluni Urea Calcium aninonium Super- Muriale sulphate' nitraele phospliate of (20.61% N) ~~~~~~~~~~(16%,1, w.s. potash. (20.6% N) (46/ N) (45%y, N) (26% N) (25 "N) P6 )J (60%. K,O) December 1, 1975 per tonne 4,539 4,022 4,022 4.077 4,060 5,295 1.825 per kg 4.54 4.02 4.02 4.08 4.06 5.30 1.83 March 16, 1976 per tonne 4,539 3.804 3,800 4,077 4,060 3.9513 1,517 per kg 4.54 3.80 3.80 4.08 4.06 3.95 1.52 October 18, 1976 per tonne 4,539 3.804 3,800 4,077 4.060 3,156 1,517 - per kg 4.54 3.80 3.80 4.08 4.06 3.16 1.52 February 8, 1977 per tonne 4,539 3,587 3,578 4.077 4,060 3,156 1,342 per kg 4.54 3.59 3.58 4.08 4.06 3.16 1.34 October 12, 1977 per lonne 4,539 3,370 3.356 4,077 4,060 3,269' 1,342 per kg 4.54 3.37 3.36 4.08 4.06 3.27 1.34 I/ Effective from 1-6-1974 2/ Effective from 18-7-1975 3/ Effective from 17-3-1976 4/ Effective from 1-12-1977 Source: Fertilizer Statistics, 1976-77. The FAI, New Delhi, 1977. A. 89 Table 5.2 India: Prtce of Ammonium Sulphate - 1944 to 1957 (Rs. ber lont ton Period/Date Price Rema-ks April 1, 1944 241 P.O.R. main port November 1, 1944 253 do Aulgust 16, 1945 245 do June 1, 1946 230 do April 1, 1947 265 do February 2, 1948 271 do April 1. 1948 290 do October 1. 1948 294 do November 1, 1948 304 do January 1. 1949 325 do September 1. 1949 330 do April 2, 1950 325 do October 1, 1950 320 do July 1, 1951 345 do October 1, 1951 360 do January 1, 1952 355 do April 1, 1952 380 do October 1, 1952 365 do January 1,- December 1953 290 F.O.R. Sindri 310 for Imported sulphate of asmonia January 1 - July 31. 1953 330 for industrial consumers. Auguat 1.- December 31, 1953 335 Indian Coffee Board and Januar U.P.A.S.I. January 1,-1953 - January 18, 1954 do January 19, 1954 - December 31, 1954 315 F.O.R. works freight paid to rail-head destination. In the case of private parties the above price operated from 15th March and for industrial purpose it operated from 3rd May,1954. January 1. 1954 - June 30, 195i 315 P.O.R. works freight paid to rail-head destination for State Governments. 325 F.O.R. works freight paid to rail-head destination for private parties like tea, coffee plantations and industrial concerns from Februay 1, 1955 to June 30,1955. July 1, 1955 - Marcb 25, 1957 315 F.O.R. works freight psid to rail-head destinations for State Governments. July 1, 1955 - June 17, 1956 320 F.O.R. works freight paid to rail-head destinations for private parties like, tea, coffee, etc. 325 F.O.R. works freight up to Ra.35 per ton to be borne by Government for industrial consumers. June 18. 1956 - March 25, 1957 315 P.O.R. works freight paid to rail-head destinations for State Governments. 335 F.O.R. works freight paid to rail-head destinations for private parties like tea, coffee, etc. March 26, 1957 - July 11, 1957 350 For States(F.O.R.)freight paid. 375 For plantations (except North- East India) and industry. 392 For North East India Tea mixtures. Source: Report of the Fertilizer Distrtbution Enquiry Committee. Reproduced from Feretilizer Statistics, 1960-61. A, 90 Table 5.3 India - Price of Ammonium Sulphate, 1957 to 1977 (exclusive of sales tax and other local taxes) (Re. per ton) For plantations For tea planta- For Cultivators in other than tea tions in Other States Effective from in North-East North-East 4 & Unioa India India U.P. Tamil Nadu Orissa Territories A: Differential Prices: 1957 to 1965 July 12, 1957 *22.00 405.00 380.00 380.00 380.00 380.00 November 11, 1957 do do 386.00 do do 380.00 July 29, 1958 do do do 390.00 do do August 8, 19 do do do do 390.80 do October 23, 1961 415.80 399.10 380.00 385.14 384.50 374.50 December 1, 1961 do do 366.00 371.00 370.00 360.00 December 13, 1961 do do do 370.20 do do January 1, 1962 401.30 384. 60 do do do do October 5, 1962 384.60 do do do do do January 1, 1964 384.60 384.60 366.00 370.20 373.00 360.00 April 1. 1964 374.60 do do do do do October 1, 1964 do 374.60 do do do do April 15, 1965 366.00 370.20 373.00 360.00 AauJt 8, 1965 (374.60) (374.60) (374.60) (374.60) 360.00 370.20 373.00 360.00 - (374.60) - (370.60) 3. All rndia Uniform Prices, 1966 to 1977 Maximum Retail Price Remarks February 2, 1966 405.00 Increase in distribution margins April 1, 1967 492.00 Withdrawal of the subsidy introduced in June '66 to compensate for the devaluation of the rupee. April 19, 1968 502.00 Increase in distribution targins. April 17, 1969 539.00 Imposition of 101 ad velorum excise duty ia March '69. March 30, 1972 549.00 Increase in excise duty to 151 ad velorum. October U, 1973 600.00 Increase in price of naphtha June 1, 1974 935.00 Increase in oil prices. a inclusive of sales tax and other local duties. Notes: 1) Prices are in rupees per long ton till October 22, 1961, and in rupees per metric ton thereafter. 2) Figures in parentheses indicate pricees of pool fertilizers when sold for the use of tea, coffee or rubber plantations in the states mentioned above. 3) Retail price is higher by Rs.ll a ton upto 10-10-73 and Rs.10 a tonne v.e.f. 11-10-73 when supplied in 50 Kg. capacity packing. 4) Pool fertilizers are delivered per ton gross, F.O.R. works/ports freight paid by Central Fertilizer Pool upto railhead destination by shortest and cheapest route. 5) All retail prices listed above are Rs. per ton gross upto April 30, 1975 and on net basis vith effect frotm May 1, 1975. Source: Fertili2er Statistics. 1965-66 to 1976-7. A.91 Table 5.4 ladLe: Price of tirea (46%N) 1952 to 1917 (exclusive of sales tax and other local taxes) _Rs. Per ton) I'eriod/effective from Price Rarks A. Pre-Fertilizer (Control), Order, 1957 Prices 1951-53 to 1953-54 290.0 excluding freight 195i-55 to May 6, 1956 570.0 May 7. 1956 to March 31, 1957 600.0 including freight AprU. 1. 1957 to July 11, 1957 710.0 S. ifferential Prices: 1957 to 1965 For plantations For tea plants- For cultivators in other than tea tiona in Other States in North-East North-East S Union India India U.P Tamil Nadu' Orissa Territories JulF 12, 1957 740.00 740;00 740.00 740.00 740.00 740.00 Novamber 11, 1957 do do 760.00 do do 745.00 Ju.lv 29, 1958 do do 760.00 751.60 740.00 740.00 Oct)ber 23, 1961 755.00 729. 10 733.10 724.00 729.10 729.10 Dec!mber 1, 1961 do do 719.00 711.00 715.00 715.00 Decamber 13, 1961 do do do do 720.40 do Jansary 1, 1962 740.90 715.00 do do do do Oct ber 5, 1962 715.00 io do do do do Jeasnry 1, 1964 615.00 615.00 615.90 617.40 615.00 615.00 AprLl 1, 1964 615.00 615.00 615.90 617.40 615.00 615.00 Octaber 1, 1964 615.00 615.00 615.90 617.40 615.00 615.00 Apr1 15, 1965 615.90 617.40 615.00 615.00 (615.90) (617.40) (615.00) (615.00) Augist 8, 1965 615.00 632.55 615.00 615.00 - (615.00) - (615.00) C: All India Uniform Prices. 1966 to 1977 Xncre..., in distribution margias Vithdrawal of the subaidy introduced in February 1. 1966 Jun. 1966. Febipaary 1, 1966 680.00 Increase in distribution margins April1 1, 1967 140.00 Imposition of 10 advalorus excise duty April 19, 1968 In March 1969. April 17. 1969 943.00 Increase in excise duty (15%) Harth 9, 1971 923 00 Rise in the price of naphtha Marb 9. 1971 ~~~~~~~~~923.00 March 30. 1972 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Increase in oil prices due to global Mcrb 30, 1972 959.00 emray crisis Octc her 11. 1973 ~~~~~~1050.00 Juno. 1, 1974 2000.00 Jul] 18, 1975 1850.00 March 16, 1976 1 10( Mebuary 8, 1977 1750.00 Reductions tn the Fertilizer Pool 1650.00 Equalization Charts. Octber 12, 1977 1550.00 * :nclusive of sales tax and local taxes. Not:s: 1) Prices are in rupees per long ton till October 22, 1961 and in rupees per metric ton thereafter. 2) Figures in parenthese indicate prices of pool fertilizers when sold for the use of tea, coffee, or rubber plantations in the States mentioned above. 3) Pool fertilizers are delivered per ton gross F.O.R. work/ports freight paid by Central Fertilizer Pool upto railhead destination by shortest and cheapest route. 4) All retail prices listed above are Rs. per ton gross upto April 30. 1975 and on net basis with effect from May 1, 1975. Source: Fertilizer Statistics, 1960-61 to 1976-77. A.92 Table 5.5 India: Price of Calctum Amm.enium Nitrate. 1954-1977 (20. SXN) (Rs, ner toan Period/Effective from Price Remarks A. Pre-Fertilizer (Control) Order. 1957 Prices: 1954-55 to Hay 6, 1956 280 excluding freight May 7, 1956 to Harch 31, 1957 280 including freight April 1, 1957 to July 11, 1957 330 including freight B. Differential Prices, 1957 to 1966 For plantation For tea planta- other then tea tions in Other States in North-East North-East & Union India India U.P. Tamil Nadua Orissa Territories July 12, 1957 360.00 360.00 360.00 360.00 360.00 360.00 July 29, 1958 360.00 360.00 360.00 360.20 360.00 360.00 October 23. 1961 354.80 354.80 359.00 354.54 354.80 354.80 December 1, 1961 do do 346.60 342.00 342.00 342.00 December 13, 1961 do do do 351.60 do do January 1, 1962 do 342.00 do do do do October 5, 1962 310.00 310.00 314.00 319.60 310.00 310.00 January 1, 1964 do do do do 321.00 do April 1. 1964 310.00 310.00 314.00 319.60 321.00 310.00 October 1. 1964 310.00 310.00 314.00 319.60 321.00 310.00 April 15, 1965 (314.00) (319.60) (321.00) (310.00) August 6, 1965 346.00 351.60 353.00 342.00 - (342.00) - (342.00) C: All India Uniforn Prices: 1966 to 1977 Maximum Retail Price (50kg. packing) Remarks 20.5 XN 252N 262N April 1, 1966 3Rs.n - 4R5.C" Increase in distribution margins. April 1, 1967 437 510 535.0 Withdrawal of the subsidy of June 1966 (devaluation effect). April 17, 1969 473 545 575.0 Imposition of 102 ad valorem excise duty. March 30. 1972 - 565.0 594.0 Increase in excise duty (15%) October 11, 1973 - 615.0 645.0 Inc:ease in price of naphtha June 1, 1974 - 1095.0 1145.0 Increase in oil prices. July 18, 1975 - 1015.0 1060.0 Decrease In the Fertilizer Pool Equalization Charge. a Inclusive of sales tax and other local taxes. b. Effective from August 1, 1966. c. " A" f.pril 1, 1967. d. August 20, 1967. e. " March 1, 1969. f. " hay 26, 1969. Notes: 1) Prices are In rupees pet long ton till October 22, 1961 and in rupees per metric ton thereafter; 2) Flgures in parentheses indicate prices of pool fertilizers vhen sold for thc use of tea, coffee, or rubber plantations in the States mentioned above. 3) Pool fertilizern; are delivered per ton grona F.O.R. onrka/ports freight paid by Ccntral Fertilizer Pool upto ralihead destination by nhorteat and cheapest ro, te. 4) All retail pricu listed above are Rs. per ton groas upto April 30, 1975 and no n(*t bamn with effect frnm Nfay 1, 1975. Source: FnrtllI-r Stulut1cfl, 19r0-6l_ Lo 19f-77. Table 5.6 India: Price of Ammonium Sulphate Nitrate, 1955-75 (26% N) A. Pre-Fertilizer (Control) Order, 1957 Prices: (Rs. Per ton) Period/Date Price Remarks 1954-55 to May 6. 1956 380.00 excluding freight tray 7, 1956 to March 31, 1957 380.00 including freight Aprii 1, 1957 to July 11, 1957 420.00 " B. Diffarential Prices: 1957 to 1965: For plantation For tea planta- For cultivators in other than tea tions in Other States in North-East North-East & Union India India U.P. Tamil Nadua Orissa Territories July,12, 1957 450.00 450.00 450.00 450.00 450.00 450.00 Novenber 11, 1957 do do 458.20 do do do July 29, 1958 do do do 452.90 do do October 23, 1961 460.00 443.50 446.00 432.00 443.50 443.50 Deceinber 1, 1961 do do 438.00 432.00 435.00 435.00 December 13, 1961 do do do 422.30 do do Januu.ary 1, 1962 451.50 453.00 do do do do October 5, 1962 435.00 do do do do do Ja.nuary 1, 1964 do do do do 433.00 do April 1, 1964 435.00 435.00 438.00 442.30 443.00 435.00 O_LoLbr 1, 1964 435.00 435.00 438.00 442.30 443.00 435.00 April 15, 1965 438.00 442.00 (438.00) (442.30) (44i3.00) (435.00) August 8, 1965 438.00 447.39 443.00 435.00 -- (435.00) -- (435.00) A.94 Table ;.6 (Cont'd) C: All Tndie Uniform Prices: 196, to '371 (Rs. per ton) Maximum Retail Price (50kg packing) Remarks February 1, 1966 515.00 Increase in distribution margins. April 1, i967 577.00 Withdr-wp of the subsidy introduced il April 17, 1969 626. 00 une 1966. Apobri 17, 1969 626.00b Imposition of 10% excise duty. October 22, 1971 626*00b Statutory Decontrol of the price. D. Decontrolled Prices: Imported Indigeneous Pool Issue Max. Retail Ex-factory Price Price Price RemarR.s October 22, 1971 626.0 April 1, 1972 650.0 Increase in excise duty. October 14, 1973 715.0c Increase in naphtha price. May 14, 1974 715.0d 775.0d Increase in naphtha price. June 1, 1974 1085.0d 1145.0d September 16, 1974 1085.0c Oil crisis July 18, 1975 1060.0 Moderate fall in import costs. a. Prices are inclusive of sales tax ar.d other local taxes. b. Aessonium sulphate nitrate price ceased to be statutorily controlled w.e.f. October 22, 1971. c. Includes 15% excise duty - 10% imposed on March, 1969 and another 5% impose:d on March 17, 1972. d. Besides 15% excise duty, 5% auxiliary duty, imposed on March 1, 1973 is included. Notes: 1) Prices are in rupees per lcng ton till October 22, 1961 and in rupees per metric ton thereafter. 2) Figures in parentheses indicate prices of pool fertilizers wqhen sold for the use of tea, coffee, or rubber plantations in the States mentioned above. 3) Pool fertilizers are delivered per ton gross F.O;R. works/ports freight paid by Central Fertilizer Pool upto railhead destination by shorte5t and cheapest route. 4) All retail prices listed abcve are Rs. per ton gross upto April 30, 1975 and on net basis with effect from May 1, 1975. Source: Fertilizer Stntistics, 1960-61 to '976-1977. A.95 Table 5.7 India: Price of Ammonium Chloride, 1962 to 1977 (25% N) (c- per ton) Imported Indigeneous Date/Effective Pool Issue Retail Retail from Price Price Price Remarks January 1962 452.0 April, 1965 400.0 455.0 May, 1966 - - 445.0 April, 1967 450.0 505.0 July, 1967 - - 540.0 March, 19.69 484.0a 539.08 September 11, 1971 - - 545.0a in UP and Bihar 555.0a in M.P., W.B., A.P., Haryana and E. Rajas- than. 570.Oa Gujarat, Maharashtra, Punjab, and W. Rajas- than. March 17, 1972 - - 57008 October 16, 1973 - 760.0a June 4, 1974 1040.0b 1095.0b 1415.08a July 18, 1975 995.Ob 1345.0c Eastern U.P. and BEhar. July 22, 1975 1385.0c Central and Western U.P. a. Includes excise duty, introduced in March 1969 (10%) and March 1971 (another 5%). b. Includes excise duty as well as 5% auxiliary duty introduced in March 1973. c. Includes excise duty and sales tax. Notes: (1) and (3) from Table 5.6 (2) and (4) from Table 5.6 Source: Fertilizer Statistics, 1976-77. A.96 Table 5.8 India: Proportion of Indigeneously Produced Nitrogenous Fertilizers Acquired by the Central Fertilizer Pool, 1965-70. Date Proportion of Indigeneously Produced Fertilizers Acquired (%) Before October, 1966 100% October, 1966 - September 1967 70% October 1967 - September 1968 50% October, 1968 - March 1969 30% April, 1969 and thereafter 0 Source: Compiled from the information available in A Study on Fertilizer Demand and Marketing: All-India Summary Report, 1974. A. 97 Table 5.9 India: The Fertilizer Pool Equalization Charge. 1974-77 (Rs. per ton) Fertilizer Pool Equalization Charge on Ammonium Calcium Ammonium Date Urea Sulphate Nitrate Jlne 1, 1974 610.0 195.0 295.0 Jlily 18, 1975 335.0 135.0 155.0 S,lptember 15, 1975 265.0 100.0 115.0 March 16, 1976 3.65.0 100.0 115.0 November 1, 1977 65.0 100.0 115.0 Source: Handbook on Fertilizer Marketing. The Fertilizer Association of India, New Delhi, 1976. Table 5.10 India: Production, Distribution and Imports of Fertilizers 1973-74 and 1974-75 ('000 tons) 1973-74 1974-75 Urea Ammonium Calcium Urea Ammonium Calcium (469.N) Sulphate Ammonium (46%N) Sulphate Ammonium (20.67.N) Nitrate (20.6%N) Nitrate (25%) (25%N) _ 1. Production 1407 575 431 1734 589 407 2. Imports 1034 76 183* 1244 235 360* 3. Distribution 2280 629 419 + 178* 2684 757 431 + 290* 4. Capacity Utilization** 53 61 52 53 62 51 5. Expected output at 80% capacity utilization level 2133 754 663 2617 760 638 6. Expected output at 90% capacity utilization level 2389 848 746 2945 855 718 * 26% N content. ** Measured as %. A.99 Table 5.11L India: Prices of NP and NPK Complex Fertilizers (Exclusive of Sales Tax and Local Taxee but Inclusive of excise duty*) (Rs. per ton) Imported Pool Fertilirers Fer_ir__e_ s Froduct/ Effective Pool Issue Retail Retail Crade from Price Price Price Remarka 1. Ammonium Phosphate (19-20-0) July 1975 2340.0 2470.0 December 1. 1975 2160.0 -Fall in import costs February 8, 1977 2030.0 and prices. (20-20-0) August, 1963 565.0 717.0 in Andhra Pradesh 610.0 in other States. February 1966 590.0 660.0 Aprl. 1967 738.0 818.0 Mtarch, 1969 814.0 894.0 April, 1972 (822.0) 1035.0 October, 1973 1140.0 1220.0 1400.0 Increase Ln naphtha prices. June, 1974 1775.0 1855.0 2300.0 Oil crisis. August 3, 1974 - - 2500.0 April, 1975 - - 2750.0 July, 1975 1670.0 1780.0' 2650.0 Decrease in import costs and prices. December, 1975 - 1660.0 2450.0 March 16, 1976 2150.0 February 8, 1977 1590.0 2080.0 (16-20-0) April, 1967 815.00 Ex-depot, Inclusive of sales tax. Mtrch. 1969 365.15 FOR destination. September i8, 1971 915.0 in Rerala 935.0 in Karnataks, A.P. and T.S. )arch 27, 1972 980.0 October 19, 1973 1300.0 Jime 6, 1974 2100.0 August 3, 1974 2300.0 April. 1975 2525.0 July, 1975 2430.0 (16-20-0) December. 1975 22J0.9 March 16, l9,o 1930.0 1840.0 for two Match 16. 1906 factories. February 8. 1977 1860.0 1700.0 for two factories. (19.5-19.5-0) April 1975 2300.0 July 1975 2200.0 March 16. 1976 1890.0 February 8, 1977 1620.0 (18-9-0) July 1975 1528.0 March 16, 1976 1380.0 Fehrimarv 8, 1477 1320.0 A. 100 Table 5.11 (Cont'd) p.2 Indigenous In.orted Pon1 Fertilizers Fertilizors Product/ Effective Pool Issue Retaill Retail Grade from Price Price Price Remarks 2. Di-&rmmonium Phosphote: (18-46-0) April. 1966 750.0 833.0 April, 1967 1000.0 1095.0 March, 1969 1122.0 1217.0 (1131.50) May 13, 1971 1345.0 March 17, 1972 1151.0 1246.0 April 1, 1972 1402.0 October, 1973 1240.0 1335.0 (1435.0) June, 1974 2910.0 3005.5 September 15, 1974 3005.0 to 3100.0 July, 1975 2665.0 2805.0 2805.0 to 2900.0 December, 1975 2460.0 2600.0 - March/April, 1976 2210.0 2120.0 in Gujarat. 2210.0 outside Gujarat. 3. Mono Amnonium Phosphate: (U-55-0) January, 1973 1225.0 1325.0 June, 1974 3040.0 3140.0 July, 1975 2795.0 2935.0 December, 1975 2685.0 February, 1977 2325.0 4. Urea Ammonium Phosphate: (28-28-0) March, 1969 1232.0 September 1, 1971 1252.0 March 21, 1972 1312.0 September, 1973 1493.0 July 13, 1974 2850.0 January, 1975 2935.0 April, 1975 3280.0 July, 1975 3180.0 to 3300.0 December, 1975 3030.0 March 16, 1976 2600.0 February 8. 1977 2500.0 (14-35-14) April, 1972 1350.0 Septomber, 1973 1493.0 July 13, 1974 2850.0 January 8, 1975 2935.0 April, 1975 3280.0 July, 1975 31£0.0 December, 1975 2930.0 Marcdi 16, 1976 2355.0 February, 1977 2230.0 A. 101 Table 5.11 (Cunt'd) p.3 Indigenous Product/ Effective Imported Pool Fertilizers Fertilizers Grade from Pool Issue Retail Retail Price Price Price Remarks 5. Nitrophosphate (20-20-0) May, 1968 738.0 818.0 March 1969 800.0 880.0 900.0 (808.0) March, 1972 829.0 909.0 972.0 October, 1973 1120.0 1200.0 June, 1974 1775.0 1855.0 July, 1975 1670.0 1780.0 December, 1975 1660.0 2240.0 March, 1976 1950.0 February 8, 1977 1590.0 1760.0 (15-15-15) February, 1968 760.0 840.0 March, 1969 832.0 912.0 870.0 March 17, 1972 862.0 942.0 April 1, 1972 942.0 October 14, 1973 1295.0 1375.0 1150.0 June, 1974 1620.0 1700.0 September 16, 1974 1800.0 July, 1975 1595.0 1700.0 1840.0 December, 1975 1540.0 1645.0 March 16, 1976 - - 1570.0 April 20, 1976 - 1570.0 February 8, 1977 1520.0 (23-23-0) June, 1974 2040.0 2i20.0 July, 1975 1920.0 2035.0 December 1, 1975 1910.0 February, 1977 1760.0 (24-24-0) July, 1975 2940.0 3080.0 3150.0 December, 1975 2510.0 2650.0 2650 to 2700 March, 1976 2155.0 2295.0 2270.0 April 20, 1976 - 2270.0 - Februairy 8, 1977 - 2045.0 2100.0 (26-14-0) May, 1974 1200.0 1230.0 Juic, 1974 1740.0 1820.0 July, 1975 1635.0 1745.0 Deccober, 1975 1645.0 Fcbrj3ry, 1977 1555.0 A.102 Table 5.11(Cont'd) p.4 Indigenous Imported rool Fertilizers Fertilizers Product/ Effective Pool Issue Retail Retail Grade from Price Price Price Remarks 6. NPK Cornlex Fertilizers: (11-11-11) June, 1974 1190.0 1260.0 July, 1975 1170.0 1260.0 December 1, 1975 1220.0 February, 1977 1150.0 (13-13-13) Junc, 1970 710.0 782.0 (717.0) June, 1974 1405.0- 1475.0 July, 1975 13e0.0 1475.0 December, 1975 - 1425.0 February, 1977 - 1340.0 (13-13-20) July, 1975 2010.0 2130.0 December, 1975 1990.0 February, 1977 1905.0 (14-14-14) April, 1967 700.0 775.0 March, 1969 755.0 830.0 856.62 (763.50) March, 1972 784.0 859.0 June, 1974 1515.0 1590.0 July, 1975 1495.0 1590.0 December, 1975 - 1540.0 February 1450.0 (17-17-17) June 1, 1972 1100.0 October, 1973 1260.0 October, 1974 2505.0 April, 1975 2775.0 July, 1975 2455.0 2590.0 December, 1975 2290.0 2425.0 2300.0 March 1, 1976 1970.0 1970.0 February 8, 1977 1810.0 1810.0 (19-19-19) March, 1975 3100.0 July, 1975 2950.0 .December, 1975 2570.0 March 16, 1976 2200.0 February o, 1977 2020.0 (22-22-11) April, 1975 3125.0 July, 1975 2975.0 Deceuber, 1975 2650.0 February 8, 1977 2100.0 A. 103 Table 5.11 (Cont'd.) p.5 Indigenous lrfed Piol vrliFert11zvrs Fertilizers Product/ Effective Pool Issuc RetaLl Retail Crade from Price Prica Price Remarks (14-28-14) April, 1968 970.0 1060.0 March, 1969 1047.0 1137.0 March, 1972 1030.0 1170.0 June, 1972 1215.0 October, 1973 1470.0 1560.0 1430.0 June, 1974 2170.0 2260.0 October, 1974 2850.0 April,, 1975 3400.0 July, 1975 2140.0 2260.0 December, 1975 2020.0 February 8, 1977 1855.0 2660.0 (1 -26-26) September 7, 1970 1025.0 MarcbD 1972 1060.0 1161.0 June, 1974 2145.0 2245.0 November, 1974 - - 3060.0 July, 1975 2125.0 2245.0 2700.0 December, 1975 2202.0 - - March, 1976 2200.0 September, 1977 1890.0 (12-32-16) September 26, 1970 1045.0 March 17, 1972 1074.0 1177.0 June, 1974 2315.0 2415.0 November, 1974 3700.0 July, 1975 2285.0 2415.0 3000.0 December, 1975 2350.0 March, 1976 2470.0 September 8, 1977' 2090.0 (14-36-12) Septemiber, 1970 1135.0 march, 1972 1161.0 1271.0 June, 1974 2505.0 2605.0 July, 1975 2470.0. 2605.0 December, 1975 2535.0 * Prices prevailing after March, 1969 include an excise duty of 10% upto March 1971, and that of 15Z thereafter. However, the prices of NP and NPK fertilizers prevailing after Marrh 15, 1976 are adjusted for a subsidy of Rs.1250.0 per ton of P2 05, wlhtch was introduced on March 16, 1976. Prices of imoorted fertilizers include, besides excise duty. 2-1/22 regulatory duty between December 16, 1971 and March 1, 1973 and 5Z auxiliary duty thereafter. ** Retail prices of indit:cnous fertilizers are those of ammonium phosphate sulphate of the similar grade. Prices of ammonium nitrophosphate for the imported fertilizers. ( ) Pool prices of food Corporation of India effective froa December 22, 1969. Pool isssue price as ititermediate for complex fertilizer and mixture manufacturers. A. 104 Table 5.12 India:-- . mut,icntiwise fe ilser prices-(inclusive of excise duty but rxclusire of CST and local taxes) Nutrient (Rs./kg) Fertiliser _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 1.1.74 1.6.74 1.1.75 1.7.75 1.12.75 16.3.76|20.4.76 1. STRAUGIIT FERTILISERS A. Nitrogenous 'N' Ammonium sulphate (20.6?,% N) 2.91 4.54 4.54 4.54 4.54 4.54 4.54 Urca 46f', N ('( k,, packing) 2.28. 4.35 4.35 4.02 4.02 3.80 3.80 Calcium ammonium nitrite 25°o N 2.46 4.38 4.38 4.06 4.06 4.06 4.06 Calcium ammoniu;n nitratc 261'o N 2.48 4.40 4.40 4.08 4.08 4.03 4.08 B. Pho!phatic P,20,' "Sin-': su!'erphosphate 16% P1O0 3.48 5.67 6.25 5.99 *5.29 3.95t 3.16+ *Triple superphosphate 45% P.0, 2.71 5.87 5.87 6.47 - - - Triple supcrphosphate (Imported) - - - 5.89 4.08 4.03 4.08 C. Potassic 'K,O' Mturiate of potash 60%,1 K:O (50 kg packing) 1.13 2.05 2.05 1.97 1.83 1.52 1.52 II. CONIPLEX FLRTIUSERS 'P,O,' @ A. Imported and indigenous 1. DAP 184640 Imported 2.01 4.83 4.83 4.52 4.08 4.17 3.32 Indigenous 2.16 4.83 4.83 4.52 4.52 3.12 3.12 2. Anmm. phosphatc suiphalte 20-20-0 lmportcd 3.72 4.93 4.93 4.S8 4.2S 4.50 4.50 Indigenous 4.72 7.15 7.15 9.23 8.23 6.95 6.95 3. NP, \PK complex 24-24-0 Imported - - - 8.81 7.02 5.76 5.66 Indig;enous - - - 8.48 7.23 5.66 5.66 4. NP/NPK complcx 17-17-17 Imported - - - 9.24 8.41 7.18 6.27 Indigenous 4.00 8.34 8.34 9.45 7.68 6.27 6.27 5. NP,NPK conmplex 15-15-15 Impgeorue 5.76 4.93 4.93 5.34 5.12 6.65 5.15 Indigenous 4.72 6.07 6.07 6.04 5.92 5.15 5.15 6. NP,NPK complex 14-28-14 Imported 3.87 4.87 4.87 5.08 4.29 4.55 4.55 Indigenous 3.40 6.98 6.98 - - 7.77 7.77 B. Imported 1. Miono amm. phosphate 31.55.0 1.95 4.84 4.84 4.53 40 .2 41 3 NP/.N to. plo. 26.34.0 - 4.92 4.92 5.00 4.28 4.69 4.69 3. NPNKCmlx 3-00- - - 8.33 6.98 7.19 7.19 4. ' '~ 12_-4-12 3.90 4.90 4.90 5.11 4.26 4.53 4.53 6. 14-36312 2.27 4.86 4.86 5.02 4.S7 5.06 5.06 6. Indgeou 2.3-23.0 - 4.87 4.87 4.83 4.28 4.50 4.50 C. Itndigaenous I.Amin. pnos. sul. 16-20.0 4.45 7.02 7.02 8.93 7.93 6.61 65.61 2. NP,-PK complex 2222.31 -4 - - 8.53 7.11 5.76 5.76 3. 14-35.14 2.90 5.58 5.58 6.68 6.03 4.60 4.60 4. ~' ' 19_19.19 - - - 9.53 7.6S 6.2h 6.26 S. 19.5.19.5-0 - - 7.26 7 23 5.S9 5. q$9 6. " " 28-28-0 3.05 5.83 5.83 7.33 6.80 5.49 5.49 * Indiscnously manufactured. w. c. f. hMarch 17, 1976. w. e. f. October 18, 1976. coN aput K,O values through urea and MOP respectively have bccn takcn into account to COMPutc P&O, valIues in Nli'/NPK [crtiliscrs. A.105 Table 5.13 India - Superphosphate Prices Fertiliser Effective from Retail price ( 50 kg packing) 1. SuperphosphatilC March 12, 1960 177.16 (161 v.s. P205) May 11, 1961 182.40 (100 kg packing) June 2, 1962 188.20 June 27, 1962 193.50 November 28, 1964 202.64 June 26, 1965 210.88 March 15, 1966 212.04 May 10, 1966 212.90 August 16, 1966 260.88 October 1, 1966 249.39 Effective from Year January 1 April 1 July 1 October 1 1967 272.95 300.95 294.54 311.70 1968 311.70 311.70 301.70 312.00 1969 299.78 299.78 299.78 281.67 1970 281.67 274.40 280.47 319.46 1971 319.46 301.79 291.18 291.18 1972 291.18 291.18 301.85. 301.85 1973 302.00 302.00 316.00 353.00 January 1, 1974 385.00 February 1, 1974 570.00 March 7, 1974 627.00 June 1, 1974 690.00 September 1, 1974 747.00 January 1, 1975 769.00 April 1, 1975 779.00 July 15, 1975 735.00 October 1, 1975 683.00 March 17, 1976 483.00± April 9, 1976 432.00± October 18-, 1976 344.00± December, 1977 361.00 2. Pelofos February 5, 1974 540.00. (182 total P 205) June 19, 1974 636.00 August 1974 825.00 July, 1975 730.00f A.106 Table 5.13 (Cont'd) p.2 Retail Price Fertilizer Effective from (S0 kg pakcing) 3. Superphosphate August 1963 207.50C (18: v.s. P205) August 1966 312.01c January 1967 326.71b (for 50 kg bags) 4. Triple superphos- March 1968 875.00 pate a (42.5 w.s P205) e March 1971 1,106.50 2 5 ~~~~~~~(for 50 kg bags) April 1, 1972 1,152.25a July 23, 1973 1,271.90a September 1974 2,600.15a 5. Triple superphos- July 1975 2,710.00a phate a phate.sP2 December 1, 1975 1, 875.00 February, 1977 1,575.00 a Includes the incidence of excise duty (10%) brought into force from March 1, 1969 aud another 5% from March 17, 1972. b Ex-factory price. c Ex-works price for 'port' factories only (within 161 km of a port). Excludes excise duty (15%), which has been reduced to 7.5% w.e.f. 1-12-1975. d Rs. 5.00 per tonne should be added which was allowed extra for packing superphosphate in 50 kg bags till 9th May 1966 and thereafter, Rs. 12.00 per tonne. e F.O.R. Ambarnath. f Ex-factory price inclusive of central sales tax t After deducting the incidence of subsidy which is Rs. 1,250/- tonne of P 0 in force from 16-3-1976. 2 5 Note: 1. Ex-.works prices for 'port' factories served by Calcutta port (within 161 km of the port) were in operation from August 16, 1966 to March 31, 1971 on account of special problems at the port. 2. All retail prices listed above are Rs. per tonne gross upto 30th April 1975 and on net basis, with effect from 1st May, 1975. Source: Fertilizer Statistics, 1976-77. A. 107 Table 5.14 India: Potassic Fertilizers Prices (Rs. per ton) Maximum price (100kg packing) Fertiliser Effective from Pool issue Retail price 1. Muriate of potash (61% K20)e October, 1967 405.00 440.00 April, 1968 445.00 480.00 March, 1969 483.00a 523.00a (487 .00)d March 17, 1972 493.00d 54:3.00d October, 1973 620.00 670.00 (705.00] June, 1974 1,170.00dc 1,220.00c July, 1975 1,090.00 1,170.00d c December, 1975 1,005.00dc 1,085.00d c March 16, 1976 910.00 February, 1977 805.00 2. Muriate of potashec 60% K20 50% K20 Ex- Ex- godown Ex-jetty godown Ex-jetty at port at port January/March 1960 328.73 - - - April 1960 319.87 July 1960 313.96 May, 1961 295.28 April, 1963 285.28 273.46 237.73 227.88 September, 1963 230.73 220.88 February, 1965 299.00 290.00 244.00 235.00 April, 1966 314.00 305.00 259.00 250.00 April, 1967 392.00 383.00 324.00 315.00 December, 1967 412.00 403.00 339.00 330.00 May, 1968 439.50 430.50 367.00 358.00 June,-1969 478.00 469.00 398.00 389.00a December, 1969 - 483.00a b - 403.00a b January, 1971 - 473.00a b - 39300a b A.108 Table 5.14 (Cont'd.) p.2 Fcstilizer Effective from Pool issue price Retail 3. Sulphate of potash C (48Z K20) June, 1966 377.85 b April, 1967 563.84 September, 1966 390.00 445.00 May, 1967 585.00 655.00 (592.00) March 1, 1971 661.00a 731.00a (668.00) March 17, 1972 730.00d 800.00d June, 1974 1,495.00c d 1,565.00 t July, 1975 1,415.00 1,510.00c d December 1, 1975 1,400.00c d February 8, 1977 1,295.00 ( ) Pool prices of Food Corporation of India Effective from December 22, 1969. ] Pool issue price as intermediate for complex fertiliser and mixture manufacturers. a These prices include the incidence of excise duty (10) on fertilisers brought into force from March 1, 1969. b F.O.R. despatching station/port of import, freight prepaid to destination station. c Distributed by M/s Indian Potash Ltd., Madras. d These prices include, besides the incidence of excise duty at 15% regulatory duty at 2 1/2Z brought into force from December 16, 1971. The latter is replaced by 5% auxiliary duty with effect from March 1, 1973. e For 50 kg packing, Rs. 10 per ton extra w.e.f. October 11, 1973 as against Rs. 11 prescribed upto October 10, 1973. Note:- All prices listed above are Rs. per tonne gross upto 30th April 1975 and on net basis with effect from 1st May 1975. Source: Fertilizer Statistics, 1976-77. India: PRICES OF FERTILISER RAW MATERIALS a. The baslc celling solling prices for naphtha and furnace oll ex-companies, storaga points otc. (for fertillser Industry) (Rs.) Productjeitective irom | Unit Kandla Okha Bombay| Goa Cochin Madras Vizag 1Calcutta| Innreacs 1. Naphtha MT Before June 1, 1970 90.40 90.05 89.65 87.45 88.46 105.82 95.97 104.70 June 1, 1970 114.90 114.55 114.15 111.95 112.96 130.32 120.47 129.20 + 24.50 May 28, 1971 144.88 144.53 144.13 141.93 142.94 160.30 150.45 159.18 + 29.98 June 11, 1973 193.00 192.65 192.25 190.05 191.06 208.42 198.57 207.30 + 48.12 September 1, 1973 253.00 252.65 252.25 250.05 251.06 268.42 258.57 267.30 + 60.00 June 1, 1974 487.05 486.70 486.31 484.10 485.11 502.48 429.63 501.36 +234.08 September 1, 1975@ 2. Furnace oil (inclusive of dutles) (a) Ex-stcragr points KL May 2., 1971 233.73 233.40 232.78 231.19 232.06 247.50 239.11 246.53 June 11, 1973 249.65 249.32 248.71 247.98 247.98 263.43 255.04 262.46 + 15.93 March 2, 1974 605.07 604.73 604.12 602.52 603.39 618.84 610.45 617.67 +355.41 September 8, 1974t 655.07 654.73 654.12 652.52 653.39 668.84 660.45 667.87 + 50.00 (b) Ex-points (within fiee delivery zone) KL May 28, 1971 243.73 243.40 242.78 241.19 242.06 257.50 249.11 256.53 June 11, 1973 255.90 255.57 254.96 253.36 ' 254.23 269.68 261.29 268.71 + 12.18 March 2, 1974 611.32 610.9a 610.37 608.77 609.64 625.09 616.70 624.12 +355.41 September 18, 1974t 661.32 660.98 660.37 658.77 . 659.64 675.09 666.70 674.12 + 50.00 v P;Ice of naptha went up by Rs. 110.00 per tonne w.e.;. 1975. t Increase is duo to Pool adjustment charges and not due to the increase in excise duty which is at Rs. 90.00 per kiloillre. Note: 1. The price of naplhtha is exclusive of basic excise duty which is Rs. 6.00 tonne for the fertiliser industry. 2. Excise duty on furnace oil when used for fertiliser manufacture, was withdrawn with effect from September 25. 1972. Its incidence was Rs. 113.00 per tonne. 3. Price of fuel oil went up by Rs. 80.00 per kllolitro with effect from July 14, 1975 and another Rs. 120.00 per kllolitre with effect from December 1, 1975. A.110 Table 5.15 (Continued) India - PRICES OF FERTILISER RAW MATERIALS (Continued) b. Rockphosphate and Sulphur Price (Rs.Itonne) Raw material/eflective during the period C.l.F. | Ex-jettys b 1. IMPORTED ROCIKPHOSPHATE 1. Florida (75/77% BPL) (172) (224) (151) (-) Jan./March 73 - April/June 73 236 July/Dec. 73 - - 2. Florida (70172% BPL) (139) (200) Jan./Dec. 73 - - S. Jordan (70,72°; BPL) (155) (250) (139) (200) Jan./March 73 155 219 April/June 73 185 263 July/Sept. 73 211 291 Oct./Dec. 73 235 318 Jan.!June 7i* 525 669 July 74/Mar. 750 630 800 April/June 750 600 785 July/Sept. 750 560 740 Oct./Dec. 75 570 145 Jan./Mar. 76* 540 705 April/Sept. 76* 440t soot Oct./Dec. 76* 410t 463t Jan./March 77' 376t 433t April/Dec. 77* 359t 415t 4. Jordan (73;75%O BPL) Jan./June 740 534 July/Dec. 740 639 Jan. 75:March 76 April/Dec. 76* 420t Jan./Mar. 77* 405t L. Jordan (75177% BPL) (-) C-) (142) (-; Jan./March 73 162 April/June 73 July/Dec. 73 216 A. 111 Table 5.15 (Continued) India - PRICES OF FERTILISER RAW MATERIALS (Continued) b. Rockphosphate and Sulphur (Continued) Price (Rs./tonne) Raw material/effective during the period C.I.F. Ex-jetty'b 1. IMPORTED ROCKPHOSPHATE (Concluded) O. Morocco rock (70/72% BPL) July/Sept. 73 211 291 Oct./Dec. 73 235 318 Jan./Mar. 74 - April/June 74 689 July/Dec. 74 630 8.0 Jan./Mar. 76 005 7. Morocco (75/770%O BPL) (172) 224 (167) (- Jan./Mar. 73 202 April/June 73 230 July/Sept. 73 309 _ Oct./Dec. 73 325 426 April/June 74 686 July/Sept. 74 705 Oct. Dec. 74 90S Jan./Mar. 75 881 April/Sept. 75 796 Oct./Dec. 75 810 Jan./Mar. 76 733 April/Sept. 76 524t April/June 77 509t 8 Senegal (811833% BPL) (195) C-) (204) C-) Jan./March 73 214 April/June 73 July/Sept. 73 319 Oct./Dec. 73 325 Jan./March 76 586 9. Tunisia (65/68% BPL) (149) (198) 10. U.A.R. (64/66%; BPL) (123.56) (152.60) A. 112 Table 5.15 (Continued) lndia _ PRICES OF FERTILISER RAW MATERIALS (Continued) b. Rockphosphate and Sulphur (Continued) Price (Rs.ltonne) F.O.R. despatching station Effective from i Remarks I Chips | -60 Mesh II. INDIGENOUS ROCKPHOSPHATE 1. Udaipur Rockphosphate' April 1, 1969 120 132 January 1 1971 150 162 November l6 1973 180 192 January 1 i9 /4 180 195 January 24 974 300 320 March X, 400 420 April l, .9W4 550 570 April 5, 1975 525' July 26, 1975 450' Freight rebate Rs. 25.001tonne for distances beyond 1000 km. December 2, 1975 4254 -do- January 5, 1976 4004 Freight rebate Rs. 40.00/tonne for distances beyond 1000 km. fFreight rebate Rs. 15.00/tonne for distances A beyond 1500 km. April 1, 1976 3004 1 I Also, sea-freight concession Rs. 30.001 Ltonne. Price (Rs.ltonne) F.O.R. E despatching station (W' chips) Effective from .Remarks |-Grade-I Grade-Il Grade-IlIl 'Z. Jhabua Rockphosphatel August 15, 1975 435-400 390-325 Upto 250 Freight discount for grades I & 11 Rs. 20.00jtonne for distances beyond 1000 km. January 19, 1976 385-350 330-275 Upto 250 Freight discount for all grades Rs. 20.001 tonne for distances beyond 500 km. April 20, 1976 285-250 210-175 Upto 150 Freight discount for all grades Rs. 20.00i tonne for distances beyond 500 km. and Rs. 10.00jtonne for distances below 500 km. Price (Rs./tonne) -Effective during the period Remarks Shipload Ex-jetty" Ex-godowIn III. SULPHUR IMPORTED April/June 1970 275.40 325.00 - If more than 1,000 tonnes 340.00 - If less than 1,000 tonnes July/Sept. 1970 280.00 340.00 - Oct. 1970'March 1971 272.50 325.00 - April/Sept. 1971 262.00 313.00 - Oct.jDec. 1971 300.00 352.00 370.00 Jan./March 1972 302.00 361.00 381.00 April/Dec. 1972 300.00 359.00 379 00 Jan.lMarch 1973 300.00 340.00 360.00 A. 113 Table 5.15 (Continued) Indta -PRICES OF FERTILISER RAW MATERIALS (Concluded) b. Rockphosphate and Sulphur (Concluded) Price (Rs./tonne) Effective during the period Shipload Ex-Jetty j Ex-godown 111. SULPHUR (Concluded) April/June 1973 320.00 380.00 400.00 July,'Dec. 1973 336.50 386.00 406.00 Jan./March 1974 For Fert. Industry 514.00 572.00 592.00 For non-Fert. Industry 528.C0 586.00 606.00 ApriljJune 1974 For Fert Industry 676.00 742.00 762.00 For non-Fert. Industry 696.00 762.00 782.00 July!Sept. 1974 For Fert. Industry 789.00 864.00 884.00 For non-Fert. Industry 812.00 887.00 907.00 Oct. 1974,March 1975 For Fert. Industry 810.00 890.00 910.00 For non-Fert. Industry 840.00 915.00 935.00 April!Sept. 1975 For Fert. Industry 679.00 753.00 773.00 For non-Fert. Industry 699.00 773.00 793.00 Oct./Dec. 1975 For Fert. Industry 679.00 753.00 773.00 For non-Fert. Industry 740.00 815.00 835.00 Jan./March 1975 For Fert. Industry 610.00 680.00 700.00 For nort-Fert. Industry 630.00 700.00 720.00 April 1976/June 1977 For Fert. Industry 540.00 605.00 625.00 For non-Fert. Industry 555.00 620.00 640.00 July/Dec. 1977 For Fert. Industry 520.00 585.00 605.00 For non-Fert. Industry 535.00 600.00 620.00 * Includes regulatory duty (2'10%) eftective from 16-12-71. This is replaced by 5°. auxiliary duty w.e.f March 1, 1973. b Includes countervailing duty (only on ex-jetty prices of rockphosphate): -at 10% from 1.3.69 to 16.3.72. -at 15° from 17.3.72. This is withdrawn w.e.f. 16.3.1976. Excluding royalty which was Rs. 4.25 'tonne upto 25-7-75 and Rs. 5.00.tonne thereafter. d' 25%/O of the price can be paid at the time of despatch and the balance witnin 60 days from the date of despatch. The following discounts are also available when purchased either F.O.R. despatching station or ex-pithead: (Rs./tonne) Udaipur-rock Jhabua rock (i) for 100% cash payment 10.00 10.00 (ii) for run-of-mine material 10.25 10.00 t15% . imnport duty as well as 5% auxiliary duty have been withdrawn with effect from 16.3.1976. *For Fertiliser Industry. A.114 TABLE 5.16 India: The Break-up of the Maximum Retail Price of Urea Items Rs. per ton 1. Ex-factory price 1158.0 2. Excise duty @ 15% ad valorem 174.0 3. Fertilizer Pool Equilization Charge 65.0 4. Equated freight 38.0 5. Dealer's margin 115.0 6. Total, i.e., the maximum retail price of urea 1550.0 Source:, The Marathe Committee Report, 1977. A. 115 Table 5.17 India:: EX-FACTORY RETENTIGN PRICES (Rs.per ton) ~~~~~ - ~~~~~~~ ~~~~ ~Calcium Ammonium Ammonium No. Name of the Unit Urea Sulphate Nitrate 1. Hindustan Steel Ltd., Rourkela. - 625.00 781.00 2. Bokaro Steel Plant - 625.00 - 3. Bhilai Steel Plant - 625.00 - 4. Durgapur Steel Plant - 625.00 - 5. Indian Iron and Steel Co. - 625.00 - 6. Tata Iron and Steel Co. - 625.00 - 7. Madras Fertilizers Ltd. 1,206.00 - - 8. E.I.D. Parry Ltd. - 819.00 - Fertilizer Corporation of India 9. Sindri 2,187.00 819.00 - 10. Corakhpur 1,499.00 - - 11. Talcher 1,796.00 - 12. Ramagundam 1,829.00 National Fertilizers Limited 13. Nangal 1,693.00 - 849.00 14. Ehatinda 2,129.00 -- 15. Panipat 2,111.00 - Hindustan Fertilizer Corporation Limited 16. Namrup 1,231.00 819.00 17. Durgapur 1,571.00 - 18. Barauni 1,821.00 - Rashtriva CheTmicals and Fertilizer Corv. Limited 19. Trombay 1,565.00 20. Fertilizers and Chemicals Travancore Ltd. 1,436.00 819.00 21. Indian Explosives Ltd. 1,262.00 - 22. Shriram Chemicals 1,200.00 - 23. Indian Farmers E'ertilizer Co-operative Ltd. 948.00 - 24. Southern Petro-chemicals Industries Corpn. Ltd. 1,500.00 - 25. Gujarat State Fertilizer Company 1,006.00 819.00* 656.00+ 26. Zuari Agro Chemicals Ltd. 1,168.00 - 27. Mangalore Chemicals and Fertilizers Ltd. , 1,253.00 - 28. Neyveli Lignite Corpn. Ltd. 2,261.00 - * Produced from Caprolacth^ route. + Produced from Gypsum route. Source: Ministry of Chemicals and Fertilizers, New Delhi. A. 116 Table 6.1 India: Distribution Margins for Urea ______________________ per ton) Existing Mtargin Margin distribution recommended recollimended No. effective National C:ommitee from Commission o 1-4-67 Agriculture 1. Comminion to dealer (i) Wholesaler 7.60 (l%1 8.40(1%) 8.79.(I%) (ii) Retailer 19.00 (21%O) 21.00 (21%) 21.97 (2j-%) 2. Incentive commrnission (to be funded) 2.00 4.00' 2 00 S. Administrative charges 1.00 1.00 - 4. Transport charges : - }(i Rlv. to wholesale godown ) 2.00 Cat) Wholesle godown to retail) 15.00 9.20 godown ) 8.00 5. Loading & Unloading (i) Wholesaler 2.50) 8.00 7.00 (ii) Retailer 2.50) 6. Codown rent for wlholesaler and retailer rt Rs. 0.80 per tonne 4.80 9.00 6.00 per month for six months 7. Shortage for wholesaler and 3.80 (a) 4.20) (I per 3.79 retailer (i per centl (b) 4.20) cent) (I per cent) (Cooperative) 8. Interest charges 20.30 42.00 29.30 (4 months (6 months (4 months @ 8%°) @10%) @10%) 9. Supervision, publicity etc. 6.50 5.60 - 80.00 122.40 93.05' Ri. 2.00 for coortatives ror promotion and Rs. 2.00 to be funded. On the baiws of Rs. 840 per tontie of urea. 1 The Qtsaraishi Comrmittee recomtnended a round figure of Rs. 95.00. Source: A Study on Fertilizer Demand and Marketing, Vol.III- All India Summary Report. The FAI, 1974, p.45. A.117 Table 6.2 India: Break-up of margin recommended by the Qutaishi Committee and current margin (Rs. per tonne) Calcium Particulars Urea Ammonium ammoniurn sulphate nitrate 1. Commission Wholesaler at I per cent 8.79 4.94 5.10 Retailer at 2i per cent 21.97 12.35 12.75 Incentive commission 2.00 2.00 2.00 2. Administrative charges - - - 3. Transport charges Railway station to ) wholesaler godown 9.20 9.20 9.20 Wholesaler godown I to retailer ) 4. Loading & unloading Wholesaler 3t 7.00 7.00 7.00 Retailer 5. Godown rent at Rs. I per 6.00 6.00 6.00 toone average for 6 months 6. Shortage for wholesaler 8.79 4.94 5.10 and retailer at I per cent 7. Intercsi: charges 29.30 16.47 17.00 (4 months on an average) 10 per cent 8. Supervision and other miscellaneous charges (publicity, etc.) Total 93.05- 62.90 64.14 or Rs. 95 B. Current margin 115.00 75.00 70.00 Source: Handbook on Fertilizer Marketing. The Fertilizer Association of India, New Delhi, 1976, p.210. Table 6.3 India: Estimated number of dealers - sonewise statewise - 1969-70 AWncyI CcwPeiaiiv. I fata ( .s.,I riia.) Zholtw6l ReI ikt I Total Whubatlet Rctamkr l iyal | hololoog 11aaa | loul CENTRAL 692 (23) 7465 (148) 8357 (171) "5 (6) 29U (121) 3075 (127) 723 (29j 126753367) 13462 (396) MIadlya Poadvah 415 (8) 2854 (23) 3274 (31) - 235 (8) 235 (8) 415 (a) 3894 (3l) 3509 (39) Rajasldan 259(11) 2029 (35) 3088 (46) 80 (4) 499 (19) 585 (22) 345 (IS) 3321 (53) 367J (6N) Vtisa 1'tadel@ 15 (3) 1512 (70) 1527 (73) 9 (2) 2211 (92) 2220 (94) 24 (5) 5953 (!10) 5977 (265) Delli 3 (1) 265 (20) 2SC (21) - 35 (3) 35 (3) 3 (1) SW0 (23) 303 (24) EAST 561 (23) 4724 (37) W2tS (60) 23 (47) 7167 (36) O7 (123) 3S6 (70) I 3I1 (323) 14337 (3#) Assat4 - - - - 396 (23) 396 (21) - 396 (21) 396 (I) Bib;", 195 (5) 3240 (17) 3435 (22k - 346 (5) 346 (5) 193 (5) 3586 (22) 3781 (27) Oti .. 252 (I1) 1191 (11) 1143 (22) 237 (7) 1247 (12) 1484 (19) 409 (18) 2130 (23) 2G27 (41) We sI l.4al 114 (7) 593 (9) 707 (16) 2298 (40) $178 (48) 7476 (88) 2412 (47) 5771 (57) 8133 (3154) NORTH 233 (48) 7US (312) 7424 (360) 101 (2W) S0o (41) 00 (6) l j (5) 768 (353) 6027 (421) Ilaryasa 42 (8) 1774 (5l) 101C (I1) - 232 (7) 232 (7) 42 (a) 2006 (4sj) 2018 (60) llimach.al Iraslvdh 33 (4) 1091 (48) 1124 (52) - 95 (5) 95 (5) 53 (4) 1186 (5.i 1219 (571 Januiuu & Ki&.mir 55 (8) 961 (2C) 1016 154j _ 5- - 5 (1) 961 tG23) 3035 (343 lu4ui. 3105 (28) 3S33 (185) W4A (213) 38S (27) 175 129) 276 (56) 214 (55) 56 (214) 3744(141) SOUTH 372 (8) 7143(3) 7858 (316) 1M (62) 0314 (53) 1i00 (337) 3368 (134) !0702 (36) 174il(071) Andhra Prademb 1o (s) 3050 (45) 1310 (s0) 3 87(25) 1871 (60) 2258 (85) 447 (30) 2923 (105) 3368 (133) Kerala - 120 (231) 1209 (31) 50(10) 1545 (40) I15. (50) 50 (10) 2754 (71) 2004 (81) Karnataka 244 135) !629 0) 3873 (3I5) It 1 33) 1356 (85) I154 (138) 442 (L8O 49335 (23) 5427 (253) ,Tamil Nadu 6t8 (2) I598 (52) ICG6 (64) 162 (14) 4444 (120) 46( 1334) 230 (26) 6042 (17i) 6272 (391) WEST 333 (44) 5211 (1S2) 5722 (236) I 57 (133 2699 (135) 231.4 (113) 668 (57j 7910 (297) 6378 (JS4) Gujarat 110 (33) 2577 (89) 2687(100) 45 (1) 630 (27n 675 (34) 355 (38) 3207 (116) 3362 (134) Kaharashtra* 401 (33) 2G34 (103) 3035 (136) 112 (ti) 20c9 (78) 2181 (84) 5135 (39) 4703 (1811 5216 (220) Grand Total 2371 (1930 32075 (947) 34446 (13S7) 3687 (173) 22562 (658) 26240 ,8331 6058 (365) SsflG7 (1703) 62925 (2368) @ Besides cooperative and private retailers in Uttar Pradesh, it is estimated that there were 2230 (98) Government retailera. * Maharashtra figure includes 197 (estimated) dealers of Goa. Note; 1. Figures in brackets denote number of dealers canvassed (i.e. sample size) 2. (-) meanp not covered in the sample. 3. The above estimates do not include dealers located at urban centres. 4. These estimates are based on the data collected during the year 1969-70. Source: A Study on Fertilizer Demand and Karketing, Vol.111 - All India Summary Report The FAI, New Delhi, 1974. A. 119 Table 6.4 India: Cooperative and. Private Distributors, 1969-70 (Percentage) *hulaalersak Retailers ZoneljState _ Cooperative Private Cooperative Private CENTRAL 88 12 59 41 Matniya Prrachsh 100 - 92 3 Rajastitan 73 25 C8 1; Uttar Pradesh 63 37 26 370 Delli 100 - 88 12 EAST 18 82 40 60 Assam - too Bihar 100 - 90 1U Orissa 52 48 42 58 West Bengal 5 95 10 90 NORTH 70 30 93 7 Haryana 100 - 88 12 Hinmachal Prmdeshi 100 - 92 .8 Jammu &- Kashmir 100 - 100 - Punjab 50 50 95 5 SOUTH 32 68 45 55 Andhlra Pradesh 13 87 36 64 Kerala - 100 44 SG Kzarnataka 55 45 73 27 Tamil Nadu 30 70 26 74 WEST 76 24 66 34 CGiijat 71 29 80 20 Mah&Iarail,,ar 73 22 56 44 G.RAND TOTAL 39 61 K6 4+ Represents Government retail outlets. Source: A Study on Fertilizer Demand and Marketing. A.120 Table 6.5 India: Number of Sale Points, 1969 to-1977 Date Cooperative Private Total April 1, 1967 48,031 NA NA April , 1968 41,052 NA NA April 1, 1969 36,505 30,066 66,571 April, 1970 33,418 38,234 71,652 April 1, 1971 30,670 50,790 81,460 April 1, 1972 April, 1973 39,266 47,120 86,395 February 1, 1974 37,911* 56,172 94,295 February 1, 1975 39,156* 59,473 98,629 February 1, 1976 39,950* 55,073 94,623 May.l, 1977 33,404* 49,916 96,220 * includes other institutional agencies. ** Since some states have governmental depots, along with cooperatives and private distributors, figures in the last column are not equal to the sum of the figures in the second and third columns. Sources: Fertilizer Statistics, 1971-72 to 1976-77. A. 121 Table 6.6 India: Statewise Distribution of Sale Points, 1976-1977 As on 1-2-1976 I As on 1-5-1977 Zone/State Coop. L Coop. & osther PrivatePrTotal Tttel otitutihr el institutional! Privata Total agencies agencies Ccntral Madhya Pradesh 2,699 2,477 5,176 3,580 1,514 5,094 Rajasthan 1,553 845 2,398 1,553 945 2,498 Utttar Pradesh 6,380 6,500 12,350 6,999 6,979 13,978 Delhi N.A. N.A. N.A. 30 45 75 East Assam 45 538* 583' 146 695 841 Blhar 277 3,595 3,872 277 3,595 3,872 Manipur 49 90 139 49 115 164 Meghalaya 15 324 339 15 131 1,246 Nagaland 10' - 100 12 - 12 Orsea 2,160 a"0 2,5C4 2,197 2,457 4,654 Tripura 251- - 2510 252 23 275 West Bengal 791 15,209 .16,000 .1,549 14,451 16,000 North Haryana 699 477 1,176 615 576 1,191 Himachal Pradesh 1,440 235 1,675 1,357 182 1,539 Jammu & Kashmir 1,487 - 1,487 N.A. N.A. 1,042 Punjab 3,408 960 4,388 816 1,766 2,382 South Andhra Pradesh 1,411 6,272 7,683 1,336 6,871 8,207 Karnataka 3,053 2,619 5,672 3,138 3,172 6,310 Kerala 3,224 2,879 6,103 3,224 2,804 6,028 Tamil Nadu 3,990 8,114 12,104 N.A. N.A. 12,048 Pondicherry N.A. N.A. N.A. 52 125 177 West Gujarat 5,105 1,863 6,968 4,964 1,746 6,440 Maharashtra 1,503 1,682 3,185 1,513 1,734 3,247 Goa N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. All Indla 39,950 55,073 94,623 33,404 49,916 96,220 * As on April 1, 1975 N.A.: Not available Source: Fertilizer Statistics, 1976-77. A. 122 Table 6.7 India: Achievements in IFPC Districts* Campaign districts All India o a Increase over previous Con- Increase over previous u 0 corresponding season sumption corresponding season Season ('000 a~ 0 Absolute tons) Absolute o _ ('000 tons) per cent ('000 tons) per cent Kharif 1976 161 34 26.5 1,188 181 18.0 Rabi 1976-77 414 115 38.3 2,225 336 17.8 Kharif 1977 217 49 29.6 1,552 324 30.6 * Intensive Fertilizer Campaign Districts Source: Fertilizer News, 1978, p.30 A. 123 Table 6.8 India: Share of Transportation Cost in Distribution Costs Rs. per ton Rs. 1. Average railway freight 62.72 2. Marketing Cost 32.00 3. Distribution Margin: Transportation 9.0 Non-Transportation 106.0 4. Total Distribution Cost 209.72 5. Total Transportation Cost 71.72 6. Share of Transportation Cost in Distribution Costs (%) 34.0 Source: RITES Study. A.124 Table 6.9 India: Transport of Fertilizer Products by RailT-ays, 1973-74 Year Million Tons 1973-74 5.3 1974-75 5.9 1975-76 7.1 1978-79* 13.0 1983-84* 23.0 1988-89* 33.0 * Anticipated. Source: The RITES Study. 1t 1~. .... . .... ., ;. ..,,,,,. . ,. .... . ...... . . . . .. . . ... 1. .. . . CY% I.... .II .I II A-o s:~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 1I U)< a~ ~~ . ;0 a"b NWU *r-{q°J SO,enjwi.a l gF t | ~ ~ ~ ~ . P. t 0 Mn I i _ 10 i r _~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 99 99 9 9 99_99 S^4;_ * 999 999 99 *9 99 9 s oP Pe o *..* or o 9. e 9 ~~ NC 4 P.C 0.4Cr 00 P.4 ~ 0 0 ft -. ~o. _ - eo4ql N. 9 N .4 %C.4.PP90 - .eIC *9 9 {@ 999 9 oo 999N 90 P199 99 _ o o _0 $ 51.~~~~~~. N% 00, P.. 0 .P OW N nor oo|o i s -reo0rsr .fl %P.' ttfI -I.I 0I.*.A P. C; C C; 44 C . .4 . P. 91: .-.. .... .. . 0 99 99999 * 9999 I 9 I9 I I I 94 a- * * * * *,§§ |@||.,@@§* ,,|§ 4&@@* . *Z * C .4 c 3aW; 0 >>>n£ | ^ § W0030 is§0 W0XJ i0Sg i 40 l.4.00 C ,~~~~~~~. C .34 U , 3 Ix4 e U~.. 'U" a2 Q~ ' .4 ,"- 44 4sda an4~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~9 ' 9* -i I * - Ill I I .11111 .111 .* . .sw, ... ,I I.. . Iti....... I G~~~~~~~~~~ W% CO N 0 O~ t% (O t C@@@@|@||*| 5^t PIN0 n S % O'. .°* C ri Ct r0 ' L.. .... . . ' S .11614 Ell s t *. ,.,O.~ .1 N- .N~CI. . ~t~ O . II b1~~ ~~~~~~~~~~' '; V-'W a . < ;'- . . . . . ^ ,,,,, ,,.,,, ............. . @.@ ... ,,., ,,,,., ,, , , . . g J .' IE . ,,,;,, ', ,,. ,,,, . . . .@| ...................0.@t . a, , , . ... * . @ | * | . . . . § , ,,. . X , ,, .,.,,, .... , , . .~~V Ff tsoo 9. 2 o brew Od^>- fl.,.a ct.... ...... .. Ut Ca t,.e C Ol S .,f..§ ........ ........... w@li .- ,A§§ 00. ........... 0 @*s*8|X@!* .................., r S C~.aCS0 0 C a I C; 0 .. . . . ... .......... . 9..O - .00 lis V I Ot 9% . . _ . 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F O S_1W oo 0 0 a0. 0X Nse O ^ N eF 0 ow X e X N O ^N O ^ OW - bd 0* O N :i_ . ; APIS 655 r 1a555 s *se* u s, N ; * ^ .~., .j ~. .0d e ~e -. S . , .~~~~~~~~~. .4 .4 . a~ ~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~t vi oIl .... ..A A.131 S.Iz. P I a a t a 1CLI-O00 to w .5o. P a eP t Poinat_ (Pt (P) !:I 35. C? - COIMATOHE TA!!TL NADU 52. Hz - D£EARt PA.'A:RTIA, COIKBATOIZ 2.6 Fit I f?A p.jARK 2. IL 36. Pr CUDDALORE TAMIL NADU VIRTA CIST o.1 CUDDALORE 2.6 - OUJAHA- 37. Ce AVADI TAMIL SADU 6A3A_UR o CL'DCALOIZ 6.3 - NADRYI, 38. CX)L- IsMoEr IAKIL AADU -SANJAVUR 2.8 53. RC K CHTI 11 JASrMAX 39. IID - ZAE?P?t TAMIL MADC JAIPUR .3 PARR! KA?PADI 3.2 - 3A rA UJ CUDDALOUK O. _ 8UR PA o 6 &NUNJAA 0. ho. crc - DILAGULA SARSAIA1A HARYANA ANAIDA 1.6 - B1SSAR - . OUSOAOSI 1.1 *I. AP - TADIPALLZ AYD0RA PRADPSH CUDDAPAS 0.6 - PANJAB cUNTUR 3.5 - SAr.OAU1 1..7 SK I') * 1.'6 *2. IC? - YAULAALI AN.H..... PRAD KOTIAPUrA II.t IXra.ASAC 2.7 3 S4. PAUSIAK-IARUIDA 0UjAPIT L3. KIC - NIDADAVOL AEDSBA PPADSSR 3A2O A ' TADEPAL I CUDAM 0.t - 'A ASTIAo- GUms 2.5 0 hA. AS - TABUrU ASDSPA pw4mss 59. ASP 2 B_AYMAGAI GUJAPA? CUStUR 2.2 - DMASA 2.1 As. VIC - LOXI HASAPAS1.TRA j6. AC - AHNIDABAD eUJARAs KALBHOM SFOLAPUR 1.5 - I9J3AIA 0.1 - AFDRRA PRADZ5tt UIA.SABAD 1.5 - 57. DCX CHEtICALS UTTAR PRA0ESI b6. VCI - OWMBAT HARSASHTSA DMLBI KNURJA S.0 ?PQoJA! 0.2 - NAAT ClIT i MARVA WA h1. DWI - HONA! MADRf A PIIADIIS ROrTAK o .k IUAAU! 0.1 - GUARAT 58t eC - KACARVARA UrTAl PRAHDOS AAIPUS 4.0 - o59. oCr - OUOKELA ODISSA hi. MAIDC- PAKIVL "ADIT- PADrs SAMBALPU -1 CUSARAS' 60. AIC - CUAgDIAPUI ASSAM SADARKATr 0.9 - DS8llUO LAaMPUR 0.2 *A..AMA ~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~DISRUOASB 1.9 *g. DIICC - AMUKBMA!I NA SARASN 1 61. PIOSPIATSC OMPAN ST' BE32AL MAIIAAD 1v3 RIBRsA ;I.. _REnp JALCAOS 3.7 IUIDVAD 1.T ADTAY PRAQrSB 62. JCP - AaDAE MD? IKEgAL ITARSr 1.0 0.3 ratSIINA *ACAI - 'A ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 08CITY .A'Zj~~~~~~~? 0.8 T~~~~~~~ARIZSIVAS 3.1 JUMAGAME 8.2 - S0. ACT - UDYSA AVMHYA PRAD6_S RATLAM - 63. B52P - 8r3DR 9iANr - 51: DCCC - KVUAR MAT1 PRADESH KRANDWA 3.1 _ VEST BENDAL IARSA 0.7 -VEST B____ UT-AN PIACESH ADIA O. - UNPUB 2.2 _ *PSLOPOS Source: RITES Study, Annexure XIV-A. Annex B Ref erenc es REFERENCES Balestra, P. and M. Nerlov (1966). "Pooling Cross-section and Time-Series Data in the Estimation of a Dynamic Model: The Demand for Natural Gas." Econometrica, vol. 39, No. 4. Bhagawati, Jagdish N. and P. Desai (1970). India: Planning for Industriali- zation, London: Oxford University Press. Bhagawati, Jagdish N. and T. N. Srinivasan (1975). Foreign Trade Regimes and Economic Development: India. New York: National Bureau of Economic Research. Bhalla, G. S. and Y. K. Alagh (1978). "Spatial Pattern of Levels and Growth of Agricultural Output in India." Paper No. 12, Center for the Study of Regional Development, Jawahrdal Nehru University, New Delhi. Betancourt, R. R. (1977). 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Appraisal of Trombay IV Fertilizer Expansion and Plant Operations Improvement Project, India. Report No. 448-IN, Washington, D.C. (1973). Appraisal of Nangal Fertilizer Project, Fertil- izer Corporation of India, India. Report No. 46-IN. Washington, D.C. (1971). Appraisal of Gorakhpur Expansion Project, India. Report No. PI-12a. Washington, D.C. (1969). The Fertilizer Program in India. Report No. SA-5. Washington, D.C. RECENT PAPERS IN THIS SERIES No. TITLE OF PAPER AUTHOR 299 An Economic and Social Analysis of the Chao C. Bruce Phya Irrigation Improvement Project II Y. Kimaro 300 Two-Studies of Development in Sub-Saharan S. Acharya Africa B. Johnston (consultant) 301 The Intermediate Sector, Unemployment, and W.F. Steel The Employment-Output Conflict: A Multi- Y. Takagi (consultant) Sector Model 302 The Economic Theory of the Household and D. Chernichovsky Impact Measurement of Nutrition and Related Health Programs 303 Trade Restrictions and International Price M. Bale Instability E. Lutz 304 Intergovernmental Fiscal Relations in R. Bird (consultant) Developing Countries 305 A Programming Approach to Fertilizer A. Choksi Sector Planning A. Meeraus 306 The Foreign Exchange Gap, Growth and K. Dervis Industrial Strategy in Turkey: 1973-1983 S. Robinson 307 The Importance of Risk in Agricultural P. Hazell, R. Norton Planning ModeLs M. Parthasarathy. C. Pomareda (consultant) 308 Guidelines for School Location Planning W. Gould (consultant) 309 Growth and Poverty in Developing Countries M. Ahluwalia, N. Carter H. Chenery 310 Teacher Training and Student Achievement T. Husen, L. Saha in Less Developed Countries R. Noonan (consultants) 311 Optimum Economic Power Supply Reliability M. Munasinghe M. Gellerson (consultant) 312 Intra-Industry Trade and the Integration of B. Balassa Developing Countries in the World Economy 313 Export Promotion Policies B. de Vries 314 The Changing Composition of Developing H. Chenery Country Exports D. 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Noronha (consultant) 327 Investment in Indian Education: Uneconomic? S.P. Heyneman 328 Nutrition and Food Needs in Developing 0. Knudsen Countries P.L. Scandizzo 329 The Changing International Division of. B. Balassa of Labor in Manufactured 330 Application of Shadow Pricing to Country L. Squire, M. Durdag Economic Analysis with an Illustration I.M.D. Little in Pakistan