Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Disaster Risk Management DPL-CAT DDO (P157489) Disaster Risk Management DPL-CAT DDO (P157489) EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA | Serbia | Urban, Resilience and Land Global Practice | IBRD/IDA | Development Policy Lending | FY 2017 | Seq No: 4 | ARCHIVED on 26-Sep-2019 | ISR38679 | Implementing Agencies: Ministry of Finance, Public Investment Management Office Key Dates Key Project Dates Bank Approval Date: 03-May-2017 Effectiveness Date: 07-Feb-2017 Original Closing Date: 31-Oct-2020 Revised Closing Date: 31-Oct-2020 pdoTable Project Development Objectives Program Development Objective (from Program Document) The objective is to strengthen Serbia's institutional and legal framework to effectively manage the physical and fiscal impact of natural hazards. Has the Project Development Objective been changed since Board Approval of the Project Objective? No Overall Ratings Name Previous Rating Current Rating Progress towards achievement of PDO Satisfactory Satisfactory Overall Implementation Progress (IP) Satisfactory Satisfactory Overall Risk Rating Moderate Moderate Implementation Status and Key Decisions Serbia Cat DDO was approved on May 3, 2017, by the Bank in the amount of EUR 66.1 Million. The Loan Agreement was signed on May 12, 2017, and became effective on January 29, 2018. The program is making satisfactory progress towards achieving its objectives. Following the floods and hail events in May and June of 2018 and 2019, the Government of the Republic of Serbia declared natural disasters and activated the Cat DDO. Based on the Government's Decisions declaring a natural disaster dated June 21, 2018 (amended July 6, 2018) and June 6, 2019, the Government requested two partial drawdowns of EUR 30 million and EUR 15 million respectively. The remaining balance amounts to EUR 21.1 million. Risks Systematic Operations Risk-rating Tool Risk Category Rating at Approval Previous Rating Current Rating Political and Governance -- Substantial Substantial 9/26/2019 Page 1 of 8 Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Disaster Risk Management DPL-CAT DDO (P157489) Macroeconomic -- Moderate Moderate Sector Strategies and Policies -- Moderate Moderate Technical Design of Project or Program -- Low Low Institutional Capacity for Implementation and Sustainability -- Moderate Moderate Fiduciary -- Moderate Moderate Environment and Social -- Moderate Moderate Stakeholders -- Low Low Other -- -- -- Overall -- Moderate Moderate Results Results Indicators A: Strengthening legal and institutional framework for post‐disaster reconstruction and DCRM IN00638829 ►A1- PIMO staffed and functioning as demonstrated by the adoption of a Systematization Act and submission of Annual Reports to teh Borrower's Cabinet (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target In September 2017, the Government of Serbia adopted a Systematization Act for PIMO. The act sets out the number of positions and responsibilities. The Result indicator A1 Annual Reports for 2015, has been achieved. In 2016, and 2017 were September 2017, the prepared and submitted Government of Serbia to the Cabinet. All reports adopted a have subsequently been Systematization Act for formally adopted by the PIMO, which set out its Government. The Annual number of positions Report for 2015 covered and responsibilities. the recovery from the PIMO has prepared Staffed and annual Value Staffing Initiated 2014 floods, including and submitted the reports submitted. financial support for 2017 and 2018 annual housing, agriculture, reports to Cabinet for small and medium approval. These enterprises, as well as reports covered the recovery and required post-disaster reconstruction of public data and information, buildings and and were formally infrastructure. The adopted by the Annual Report for 2016 Government. covered the recovery and reconstruction efforts in similar sectors following the floods in March 2016. The Annual Report for 2017 provided a 9/26/2019 Page 2 of 8 Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Disaster Risk Management DPL-CAT DDO (P157489) summary of the ongoing reconstruction activities and recovery activities from small-scale events. Date 03-May-2017 21-Sep-2018 13-Sep-2019 31-Oct-2020 IN00638830 ►A2-The Borrower has adopted a Systematization Act to operationalize a new government institution or agency to implement Law on Natural and other Hazard Risk Reduction and Emergency Management adopted. (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Result indicator A2 The Law on Natural and has been achieved. other Hazard Risk The Law on Disaster Reduction and Risk Reduction and Emergency Management Emergency has passed all public Management was consultations and is adopted by the scheduled to be National Assembly in presented to the National November 2018 Assembly for adoption by (published in the the end of 2018. Once National Gazette of the Systematization act not Borrower has adopted Value the Law has passed the Republic of Serbia adopted. a Systematization Act. Assembly, the next step NO.87/2018, dated 21 is the adoption of the November 2018). The Systematization Act to Systematization Act in formalize the role of the the Ministry of Interior Ministry of Interior, has been adopted, Sector for Emergency which formalized the Management, as the lead role of the Sector for entity for the Emergency implementation of this Management as the Law. lead entity for implementing this Law. Date 03-May-2017 21-Sep-2018 13-Sep-2019 31-Oct-2020 B: Strengthening the Borrower's technical capacity for planning and implementing DCRM activities IN00638881 ►B1-National flood risk assessment completed. (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Results Indicator B1 is expected to be achieved by October Assessment Ongoing. An 2020. In alignment international consultant with the EU Floods has been mobilized to Directive conduct the national (2007/60/EC), the flood risk assessment. Ministry of Agriculture, Activities have started on Forestry, and Water September 17, 2018. The Assessment Value No assessment. Management has main counterparts for the completed. completed a flood risk assessment the Preliminary Flood Risk Ministry of Agriculture, Assessment. The Forestry, and Water Bank is providing Management (through support to scale up the Directorate of Water) this assessment and and PIMO. conduct a National Flood Risk Assessment to cover 9/26/2019 Page 3 of 8 Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Disaster Risk Management DPL-CAT DDO (P157489) 75 flood prone areas in the country. To guide this assessment, the Ministry has adopted a national flood risk assessment methodology in the form of a “Rulebook on Establishing Methodology for Development of Flood Vulnerability and Flood Risk Maps.” The following activities have been completed: (i) the geodetic survey has been conducted and (ii) hydrological monitoring and ICT data processing equipment has been procured. The following activities are currently being conducted: (i) technical modeling and (ii) hazard and risk mapping for the identified flood prone areas. Date 03-May-2017 21-Sep-2018 13-Sep-2019 31-Aug-2020 IN00638882 ►B2-Number of sectors and institutions that are using an open-source geospatial platform with risk information. (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.00 Date 03-May-2017 21-Sep-2018 13-Sep-2019 31-Oct-2020 Indicator B2 is expected to be achieved by February 2020. Progress has been made in the development and implementation of GeoSerbia – a national Spatial Data Infrastructure (SDI) – which allows for improved access to Serbia’s spatial data (electronic geographic data) which is critical for risk assessment and risk-informed decision-making. The Law on National Infrastructure of Geospatial Data (Official Gazette of the Republic of Serbia No. 27/2018, April 6, 2018) provides the legal framework for the national SDI. The Geodetic Authority of Serbia (RGA) is responsible for the development and the operation of GeoSerbia. Various public institutions provide data and information which in turn is visualized on the Comments: platform. Currently, it holds around 73 metadata sets and 225 datasets. This includes, inter alia, population data, data on education and health institutions, seismic hazard maps, registered landslide locations, cultural heritage, nature reserves and protected areas, climatological and hydrological stations, and river networks. RGA continues to further develop the SDI and more risk related data is expected to be added to GeoSerbia over time. As an open-source geospatial platform, it is available for public viewing and full data access can be requested by state institutions. In order to measure whether the target has been met, it was agreed that the Bank will request RGA to share the list of registered and active users. IN00638884 ►B3-Number of sectors and local self-governments that have applied the post-disaster loss and needs assessment methodology. (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target 9/26/2019 Page 4 of 8 Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Disaster Risk Management DPL-CAT DDO (P157489) Value 0.00 2.00 2.00 15.00 Date 03-May-2017 21-Sep-2018 13-Sep-2019 31-Oct-2020 Indicator B3 is expected to be achieved by February 2020. Most local governments have continued to apply the traditional methodologies to assess the damages and losses in the aftermath of disasters. However, this is likely to change since the application of the PDNA methodology has become mandatory. A working group has been established and is currently working on tailoring the PDNA methodology for each sector to the Serbian context (agricultural sector has been completed and the remaining sectors are Comments: expected to be completed by the end of 2019). The next step will be to provide a training for all local governments. To date, 30 percent of all local governments have been trained. At the same time, the Bank will be providing technical support to facilitate the preparation of PDNA reports for 23 local governments to assess the damages and losses of the 2019 June flood event. C: Reducing fiscal impact, strengthening financial capacity to respond to adverse natural hazards IN00638883 ►C1-Fiscal risk unit established, staffed, and functioning as demonstrated by (a) adoption of the Systematization Act which sets out the number of positions and (b) the identification and quantificatio (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target In March 2018, the MoF Indicator C1 has been passed a partially achieved. This Systematization Act indicator is expected to establishing a new group be fully achieved by in the Department for June 2020. In March Macroeconomic and 2018, the MoF passed Fiscal Analysis with a Systematization Act responsibility for fiscal establishing a new risk management. The group in the mission team was Department for informed that this group Macroeconomic and would be staffed by early Fiscal Analysis with 2019, initially with three the responsibility for employees. Once the fiscal risk group is established, the management. The task team will discuss group has since been with the unit potential elevated to a sector. technical support to Staffing of the Fiscal Staffed, contingent achieve indicator C1 (b). Risk Sector is growing liabilities from Since the last mission, and currently stands at disasters identified and Value Not staffed. the team received a six people, including a quantified, and fiscal request from the Property head of sector. Going risk statement Directorate of the forward, it was agreed published. Republic of Serbia for the Bank will provide technical assistance to capacity building create a public asset support on disaster database which can risk financing (DRF) serve for financial issues to the new unit, purposes, including including on public asset insurance. quantifying disaster During the mission, the related contingent team met with the liabilities (result C1 b). assistant director of the Bank technical Property Directorate to assistance (TA) on the discuss and confirm that quantification of such TA will provided disaster related going forward under a contingent liabilities SECO financed TA on will be financed disaster risk finance. An through the ongoing up-to-date database with SECO DRF TA information on the program. The Bank will 9/26/2019 Page 5 of 8 Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Disaster Risk Management DPL-CAT DDO (P157489) replacement value of work with the unit to public assets will help deliver estimates of quantify the disaster related Government’s disaster contingent liabilities by related contingent March 2020.5 The liability, and thus Bank also stands contribute directly to ready to provide results C1 (b). support to the new unit beyond disaster risk financing (DRF), including with the production of a fiscal risk statement by June 2020. Date 03-May-2017 21-Sep-2018 13-Sep-2019 31-Oct-2020 IN00638885 ►C2-GoS prepared and enacted a set of fiscal incentives and a model DRFI plan for local governments to facilitate wider use of budgetary protection instruments against the financial consequences of nat (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value Not enacted. Work ongoing. Three Indicator C2 has been Fiscal incentives pilot municipalities - partially achieved. enacted and at least 3 Užice, Paraćin and Additional effort is municipalities have Kraljevo – have been required for the adopted a DRF plan selected and information development of fiscal including the on disaster related incentives to make information and expenditure by these sure this indicator can capacity to access municipalities has been be fully achieved. disaster risk insurance. collected. Draft reports Three pilot on the legal framework municipalities - Užice, governing disaster Paraćin and Kraljevo – response financing and have prepared disaster on recent disasters risk financing plans. related expenditure were This built on previous produced for the three work on assessing the pilot municipalities, as legal framework for well as a model (i.e. DRF at the municipal template) DRFI plan. level; analyzing past During the mission, a disaster related workshop was held expenditures; and where mentioned training local self- documents were government on DRF. presented and potential The draft plans are measures to strengthen expected to be financial preparedness at formally adopted by the local level were the three municipalities discussed. The three by the end of 2019. In pilot municipalities will addition, a develop DRFI plans comprehensive DRF based on the produced plan that covers 18 template until the end of municipalities is under 2018 with WB technical development and will assistance. be completed by June 2020. With regards to the development of fiscal incentives, the mission did not see progress. It was agreed to organize a video-conference before the next mission in February to explore options how 9/26/2019 Page 6 of 8 Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Disaster Risk Management DPL-CAT DDO (P157489) the indicator can be fully achieved by October 2020. Date 03-May-2017 21-Sep-2018 13-Sep-2019 31-Oct-2020 IN00638886 ►C3-A report on consolidated information on historical post-disaster expenditure data is produced annually and submitted to the Budget Department. (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Indicator C3 is expected to be fully achieved by February 2020. The Bank will Initial discussions on provide support to the potential ways to collect Consolidated historical collection and Data collected and historical expenditure Value post-disaster expenditure consolidation of the submitted to the data were held but the information not collected. post-disaster Budget Department. work has not yet expenditure data. commenced. Delivery of the post- disaster expenditure database is expected by February 2020. Date 03-May-2017 21-Sep-2018 13-Sep-2019 31-Oct-2020 Data on Financial Performance Disbursements (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Currency Original Revised Cancelled Disbursed Undisbursed % Disbursed P157489 IBRD-87380 Effective USD 70.00 70.00 0.00 52.25 21.99 70% P157489 TF-A2296 Effective USD 4.12 4.12 0.00 3.30 0.97 77% P157489 TF-A4344 Effective USD 1.02 1.02 0.00 0.96 0.06 94% P157489 TF-A7621 Effective USD 1.08 1.08 0.00 0.20 0.88 19% Key Dates (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Approval Date Signing Date Effectiveness Date Orig. Closing Date Rev. Closing Date P157489 IBRD-87380 Effective 03-May-2017 12-May-2017 29-Jan-2018 31-Oct-2020 31-Oct-2020 P157489 TF-A2296 Effective 06-Feb-2017 07-Feb-2017 07-Feb-2017 30-Jun-2018 31-Dec-2019 P157489 TF-A4344 Effective 06-Feb-2017 07-Feb-2017 07-Feb-2017 28-Feb-2018 31-Oct-2019 P157489 TF-A7621 Effective 13-Jun-2018 28-Jun-2018 28-Jun-2018 31-Dec-2019 28-Jun-2020 9/26/2019 Page 7 of 8 Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Disaster Risk Management DPL-CAT DDO (P157489) Tranches Restructuring History There has been no restructuring to date. Related Project(s) There are no related projects. 9/26/2019 Page 8 of 8