AgRicuLTuRE & RuRAL DEvELOpmENT NOTES 52755 Reduced Emissions and Enhanced Adaptation in Agricultural Landscapes iSSuE 50 OcTOBER This brief is based on the key messages of a conference held on January 23, 2009 at the World Bank to review the 2009 State of the Art on "Agriculture and Climate Change ­ Investing now for a Productive and Resilient Future."1 It is not the formal position of any one academic institute or organization, but sets out the key issues on: Carbon as an integral part of sustainable land, water and biodiversity management in developing country agricultural landscapes and in any post-2012 framework and market mechanisms. Agricultural emissions reductions are already eligible under the Kyoto mechanisms for Annex I (industrialized) countries; Agricultural soil carbon measurement, modeling and monitoring capabilities; Challenges and opportunities in estimating soil carbon stocks and changes; robust and integrated measurement and monitoring system; and A Further action steps to ensure objective consideration of agricultural soil carbon in post-2012 climate change solutions. cARBON iS iNTEgRAL TO Protecting existing stocks of soil carbon in croplands, SuSTAiNABLE LAND, WATER, AND peatlands, and wetlands BiODivERSiTy mANAgEmENT iN Replenishing soil and biomass carbon and improving AgRicuLTuRAL LANDScApES productivity in degraded lands, and Seventy-five percent of the world's poor live in rural Reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from crop areas and most depend on agriculture for their liveli- and grazing land. hoods. Developing countries and especially the rural poor Agriculture contributes to about 30 percent of GHG emis- are concerned about adapting to climate change and sions, but has major potential to provide both mitigation enhancing the resilience of their agriculture-dependent and adaptation interventions to combat climate change livelihoods to climate change. and reduce poverty. The adoption and scaling up of good agricultural prac- The limitations on the eligibility of agricultural carbon tices and integrated natural resource management (NRM) sequestration in the Clean Development Mechanism can potentially address both mitigation and adaptation in (CDM) of the Kyoto Protocol was a major missed oppor- production landscapes to climate change by: tunity to engage developing country farmers and rural poor in improved agricultural and NRM practices to mitigate climate change. Proposals to also include agricultural offsets in post- 2012 policies will need to design approaches to ensure that offsets are true reductions in GHGs. Carbon sink offsets need to be: (a) Measurable, (b) Reportable and (c) Verifiable, currently referred to as MRV. The following issues are relevant for developing country agricultural soil carbon discussions: 1. Agriculture is a major GHG emitter and accounts for about 14 percent of global emissions. Furthermore, the continuing conversion of forests to agriculture is a major factor causing deforestation, which accounts for an additional 17 percent of global emissions. Thus combined, agriculture and land use change/deforestation contribute about 1/3 of cur- rent total anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing. Photo: Agriculture and Rural Development (ARD), The World Bank THE WORLD BANK Most of agriculture's contribution comes from nitrogen cHALLENgES AND OppORTuNiTiES dioxide (N2O) and methane (CH4) emissions, while the iN ESTimATiNg SOiL cARBON dominant gas for other land use is carbon dioxide (CO2), STOcKS AND cHANgES associated from deforestation and biomass burning There are challenges involved in estimating soil carbon con- (IPCC-Working Group III, 2007). tents and carbon stock changes at the field scale due to the 2. There is significant biological/technical potential for GHG fact that: mitigation within agriculture through both emissions 1. Soil carbon contents are often highly variable within an reductions (mainly of N2O and CH4) and removals of CO2 individual field. (with increasing storage of carbon (C) in soils and biomass 2. Annual changes are usually small, relative to existing carbon on agriculture land), on the order of 5.5 to 6 Pg CO2 stocks. For example, typical carbon stocks in the top layer equivalents yr-1, over a 10-30 year time horizon (IPCC- (20 cm or so) of many agricultural soils are on the order of Working Group III, 2007). The dominant component 20-80 tons/hectare whereas typical rates of carbon changes (about 80 percent) of this potential is associated with soil might be on the order of 0.1-1 tons/hectare/year; therefore, carbon sequestration in cropland and grazing lands and there is a low `signal to noise ratio' over short time scales. restoration of degraded lands in developing countries 3. Multiple factors (for example, soil type, climate, and previous (IPCC-Working Group III, 2007). land use) influence soil responses at a specific location. 3. There is strong consensus based on robust empirical 4. While there are many existing field experiments that docu- datasets that enhancing soil organic carbon contents ment soil carbon changes, at the global scale, experimen- of soils can improve land, water, and crop productivity, tal measurements are lacking for many if not most crop, as well as, enhance the adaptive capacity of the land soil, climate, and management combinations. against climate-related shocks--the mitigation-adapta- 5. There are virtually no `inventory' measurement systems for tion double divided. soil carbon (for example, in comparison to forest biomass inventories). SOiL cARBON mEASuREmENT Thus the fundamental problem with respect to direct measure- cApABiLiTiES ment of soil carbon stocks and stock changes is not so much an issue of measurement capabilities, but rather a question of apply- However, soil carbon sinks have not received much consider- ing efficient sampling designs and rigorous protocols. Various ation in current GHG reduction policies, in part due to the lack measures, such as the use of benchmark sampling locations that of understanding by many policy makers and others about the can be precisely relocated (to reduce the influence of spatial vari- capabilities of measuring soil carbon. Thus it is worth stating ability) and re-measured over multi-year intervals, can contribute some key facts regarding the general scientific capabilities to to an efficient design to quantify soil carbon stock changes. measure soil carbon: A ROBuST AND iNTEgRATED n The carbon content of a soil sample can be mea- mEASuREmENT AND sured with a high degree of accuracy and preci- mONiTORiNg SySTEm sion. Instrument error associated with modern dry Measurement and monitoring systems involve tradeoffs with combustion auto-analyzers are less than 0.1 percent respect to the time, effort, confidence, and cost invested in and the overall lab measurement error using proper the estimates. Generally, two alternatives exist, but an optimal protocols is in the neighborhood of 1-2 percent. system will integrate direct measurements with modeling and other data sources such as remote sensing. The existing alter- n Equipment and protocols for soil sampling are well natives include: documented and have been applied throughout the a. Direct Field Measurements: At one end of the spec- world, for decades. trum, direct field measurements of soil carbon stock n The general response of soil carbon stocks to envi- change could be required for every participant and/or field ronmental variables and management practices are involved in an offset project. Monitoring and certification of offset credits generated would be strictly determined relatively well known. There are hundreds of long- from the field measurements. term field experiments globally which provide infor- mation on management-climate-soil interactions on b. Model-based Approaches: At the other end of the soil carbon dynamics. spectrum, a practice-based approach could be applied in which participants are given a fixed credit for adopt- n Sophisticated models of soil carbon dynamics have ing a particular practice, where the presumed soil carbon existed for over 20 years and are increasingly change is based on average estimates for a large region, deployed for research, management, and policy based on existing data sources. Monitoring and certifica- applications. tion of offset credits generated would be on the basis of the participant applying a specified practice. 2 There are challenges related to both of these alternatives. While alternative (a) is arguably the most rigorous in terms of quantification, it is impractical, both operationally and in terms of cost, particularly for developing countries. The costs of measurement and monitoring would be prohibitive for the majority of projects. Alternative (b), while being a low cost option, arguably lacks sufficient rigor to address the skepti- cism about soil carbon sinks ­ are they really performing as advertised? Unfortunately, an adequate database of field measurements and understanding of soil carbon changes does not yet exist to permit the derivation of `stock change factors' or other model-based estimates that would satisfy the demands for accuracy and precision in estimating soil carbon changes, at project scale, for the various practices, soil types, climate conditions and land use histories involved, particularly in developing countries. Therefore, a robust compromise would be to inte- grate both direct field measurements and model-based Photo: Agriculture and Rural Development (ARD), The World Bank approaches to leverage state of the art scientific under- standing and existing data, as embodied in currently avail- China recently released a national strategy on climate change able dynamic models of soil carbon change, along with a and a group of major tropical nations, led by Papua New coherent and expanding network of field based measurements, Guinea and Costa Rica, have signaled interest in reducing emis- under `on-farm' conditions. This can improve the performance sions from tropical deforestation, the source of roughly one- of and determine the uncertainty of model-based estimates. fifth of global GHG emissions. Negotiators seeking to develop Over time, the reliability and performance of such a hybrid sys- the post-2012 international framework have an unparalleled tem would improve such that monitoring and verification could opportunity to build on this momentum in a way that furthers increasingly be based on practice-based approaches including, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change remote sensing and rapid ground survey methods, and corre- (UNFCCC) objective of stabilizing atmospheric GHG concentra- spondingly less on direct measurement based verification. tions at a level and within a timeframe so as to avert dangerous climate consequences. There is growing awareness that such THE NEED fOR AN a framework must not only require deeper reductions from ENviRONmENTALLy STRONg industrialized countries but also reform of the CDM. AND EffEcTivE pOST-2012 fRAmEWORK n A key issue for agriculture is which sinks will be Fortunately, political momentum is building for an environ- recognized under any future ETS. Sequestration mentally strong and effective post-2012 framework, fueled in 3.3 sinks will almost certainly be recognized under by the state-of-the-art science presented in the International the ETS. It is undecided whether sequestration in Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report. article 3.4 sinks will be recognized. The European Union's leaders are working on both a mid- n Developing country farmers will have a poten- term reduction target for 2020 and a long-term objective of tially powerful incentive to better manage soil avoiding 2°C of warming. The world's first GHG emissions and water resources for improved food production cap-and-trade market, the European Union Emissions Trading AND carbon sequestration if the ETS allows article 3.4 Scheme (EU-ETS), topped US$24 billion in 2008, and is expect- sinks to be included. ed to grow significantly. In the U.S., legislation to place man- datory caps on GHG emissions and establish a GHG trading n Emissions can be offset by storing carbon in market has been proposed in both houses of Congress. Thirty sinks. Kyoto Protocol Article 3.3 sinks are defined as leading U.S. companies have formed the U.S. Climate Action woody vegetation more than 2 meters tall, more than Partnership (US-CAP) to press for adoption of such legisla- 20 percent crown cover, and greater than 0.2 ha in tion. States like California and the northeast states are mov- area. Kyoto Protocol Article 3.4 sinks include carbon ing ahead to implement their own cap-and-trade regulations. in soil and vegetation, both above and below ground By end of 2009, New Carbon Finance expects to see the global on crop and grazing land. carbon market on a level with 2008 at around US$121 billion, n Early investigations suggest that soil has supported by higher trading activity but lower prices. If the potential to store significant quantities of US does introduce a federal cap and trade scheme in line carbon, but for article 3.4 sinks to be included there with the latest proposals, the global carbon market could needs to be substantial investment in research and increase significantly in the post-2012 period, turning over development of both emissions and sequestration on of the order of US$2 trillion per year by 2020 (New agricultural land. Carbon Finance). 3 AcTiON STEpS TO ENSuRE 2. Develop a mix of market and non-market mecha- THE ADEquATE iNcLuSiON Of nisms to encourage agricultural carbon seques- AgRicuLTuRAL cARBON iN THE tration and reduce carbon emissions, such as: pOST-2012 iNTERNATiONAL i. Payments for ecosystem services that can be RESpONSE TO cLimATE cHANgE. accessed by communities for actions that enhance agricultural biomass and soil carbon, above- and This note is focused on agricultural carbon, but is closely below-ground biodiversity, and hydrological (envi- linked to the development and operationalization of a new ronmental) flows. paradigm for agricultural intensification--more food and ii. Public support for agroecological zone and distrib- fiber but with less land, more efficient water use, less fossil uted hydrological modeling, alongside land-use fuel inputs, significantly reduced land and water pollution, planning approaches to optimize synergies and and reduced greenhouse gas emissions. In the context of tradeoffs of land-and-water management options this agricultural paradigm shift, the following action steps are for improved productivity and agricultural carbon important for protecting and enhancing agricultural carbon: sequestration from local to national and even 1. Establish a global assessment of agricultural soil regional scales. carbon, which includes: iii. Voluntary funds from developed countries, phil- i. A mechanism to finance a number of pilot proj- anthropic organizations, and the private sector to ects, to establish an extensive set of re measurable encourage desirable land-and-water management `inventory' locations--where direct measurements approaches that protect and enhance agricultural of terrestrial carbon would be collected--along carbon sequestration. with pertinent soil, climate, and land-use and 3. Better understand national sovereignty issues management information. Account for increasingly related to biodiversity, forests, and land- variable or changing climate. and-water management. Use the improved agricultural carbon assessments and modeling ii. A set of rigorous field and lab protocols, and cross methodologies that have been highlighted to lab calibrations that would be applied across all the ensure rights to equitable ownership of carbon pilot projects. credits and to minimize or resolve conflicts. iii. A common data archive, in which all the informa- 4. Enhance the capacity of national institutions and tion from the various projects participating--with professionals to ensure their effective participa- appropriate safeguards for data confidentiality-- tion in: would be available for use by a suite of open source i. The negotiation process at national (across sectors), models. These models could then be evaluated and regional, and international levels leading up to, and improved, with the provision for independent data during, a post-2012 climate change treaty. sets to be used in establishing measures of model uncertainty. ii. Creating and managing national agricultural carbon inventories and the monitoring and verification of iv. Pilot projects to develop and test remote sensing- project and national-level outcomes. based and ground survey-based methods for moni- toring and verification of management practice iii. Developing appropriate national mechanisms and implementation. overseeing the distribution of agricultural carbon payments to the rural communities engaged in v. Scaling up the testing and application of emerg- protecting and sequestering agricultural carbon. ing technologies to enhance agricultural carbon sequestration and monitoring--such as biochar, biogas, digital soil maps, and soil-sensing spectral methods. This ARD Note was prepared by Erick Fernandes and Dipti Thapa and edited by Sonia Madhvani of the World Bank. It is based on key messages from a 2009 Conference held on January 23, 2009 at the World Bank to review the State of the Art on "Agriculture and Climate Change ­ Investing now for a Productive and Resilient Future." 1 Participants from Civil Society Organizations, Philanthropic Foundations, Academia, and the World Bank contributed presentations and experiences: The World Bank, Kansas State University - Department of Agronomy, Woods Hole Research Center, Colorado State University, Cornell University, COMESA, World Wildlife Fund (WWF), Katoomba Group, Ecoagriculture Partners, Climate Focus, C-Quest Capital, B&M Gates Foundation Grantee - World Soil Information Center (ISRIC), International Development Research Centre (IDRC) -, The William J. Clinton Foundation, The H. John Heinz III Center for Science, International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Rural Poverty & Environment/Climate Change Adaptation, Rockefeller Foundation, International Biochar initiative (IBI), and ProNatura. THE WORLD BANK 1818 H Street. NW Washington, DC 20433 www.worldbank.org/rural