55948 Border Price and Export Demand Shocks for Developing Countries from Rest-of-World Trade Liberalization Using the Linkage Model Dominique van der Mensbrugghe World Bank dvandermensbrugg@worldbank.org Ernesto Valenzuela University of Adelaide ernesto.valenzuela@delaide.edu.au Kym Anderson University of Adelaide and CEPR kym.anderson@delaide.edu.au Agricultural Distortions Working Paper 108, June 2009 This is a product of a research project on Distortions to Agricultural Incentives, under the leadership of Kym Anderson of the World Banks Development Research Group. The authors are grateful for the distortions estimates provided by authors of the focus country case studies, for assistance with spreadsheets by Johanna Croser, Marianne Kurzweil and Signe Nelgen, for helpful comments from workshop participants, and for funding from World Bank Trust Funds provided by the governments of Japan, the Netherlands (BNPP) and the United Kingdom (DfID) and from the Australian Research Council. This is part of a Working Paper series (see www.worldbank.org/agdistortions) that is designed to promptly disseminate the findings of work in progress for comment before they are finalized. The views expressed are the authors alone and not necessarily those of the World Bank and its Executive Directors, nor the countries they represent, nor of the institutions providing funds for this research project. 2 Author contact details: Ernesto Valenzuela School of Economics University of Adelaide Adelaide SA 5005, Australia Phone +61 8 8303 4712 Fax +61 8 8223 1460 ernesto.valenzuela@delaide.edu.au Border Price and Export Demand Shocks for Developing Countries from Rest-of-World Trade Liberalization Using the Linkage Model Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, Ernesto Valenzuela and Kym Anderson The volume on Agricultural Price Distortions, Inequality and Poverty compiled by Anderson, Cockburn and Martin (2010) begins with a global study by Anderson, Valenzuela and van der Mensbrugghe (2010) that uses the World Banks LINKAGE model to examine the economic impacts in various countries, regions and the world as a whole of agricultural and trade policies as of 2004. It does so by shocking that model with the removal of all agricultural price-distorting domestic and border policies with, and without, the removal of trade policies affecting all other goods. (The reason for the two shocks is to identify the relative contribution to various indicators of agricultural policies versus trade policies directed at other merchandise.) That pair of shocks is also employed in another global study in that volume to examine the inequality and poverty implications of those price-distorting policies for more than 100 countries (by Bussolo, De Hoyos and Medvedev (2010) using their GIDD microsimulation model). Then for ten national studies reported in that volume, the Linkage model again is used, but only to provide an exogenous set of shocks to the national economy wide model employed by the authors of each developing country case study.1 The effects of that shock on a national economy are then compared with the effects of own-country liberalization using the same national model and the same agricultural protection rates for that country as in the global Linkage model. 1 The ten national studies are for Argentina (Cicowiez, Diaz-Bonilla and Diaz-Bonilla (2010), Brazil (Bento de Souza and Horridge (2010), China (Zhai and Hertel 2010), Indonesia and Thailand (Warr 2010), Mozambique (Arndt and Thurlow 2010), Nicaragua (Sanchez and Vos 2010)Pakistan (Cororaton and Orden 2010), Philippines (Corong, Cororaton and Cockburn 2010), and South Africa (Herault and Thurlow (2010). 2 In this Appendix we describe the main assumptions adopted to generate the border price and export demand shocks from agricultural and trade policy reforms by the rest of the world, and how that is communicated to the national models. We use the comparative static version of the World Banks LINKAGE model (van der Mensbrugghe 2005, 2006) with a baseline (base year of 2004) calibrated to pre-release 5 of the beta Version of GTAP 7. The new database has somewhat greater regional coverage than Version 6 of GTAP, which was calibrated to a baseline of 2001 (Dimaranan 2007). The sectoral and regional aggregations and their concordances are shown in tables 1 and 2. We first amend the distortions in Version 7 of the GTAP global protection database (see Badri Narayanan and Walmsley 2008) by replacing its applied tariffs with distortion rates that reproduce those estimated by authors of the developing country case studies in the World Banks recent Agricultural Distortion research project as presented for modelers, using the same sectors as in the GTAP database, by Valenzuela and Anderson (2008).2 Shocks at the border to single country models from the global Linkage Model To ensure uniformity of the simulations used in the global and national modeling, the results communicated from Linkage to the single country models are ,,rest-of-world reforms, that is, global liberalization except without own-country liberalization. The shocks imposed are as follows: For the agricultural and lightly processed food (excluding highly processed food, beverages and tobacco): o removal of all trade (import and export) taxes and subsidies, plus o removal of all farm input and output taxes and subsidies For other non-agricultural sectors: 2 That distortions database is documented fully in Anderson and Valenzuela (2008) and is based on the methodology summarized in Anderson et al. (2008a and 2008b). 3 o removal of all trade (import and export) taxes Macro-closure in the Linkage Model The macro-closure of the global Linkage model involves: (1) Fixing the balance of trade (2) Fixing regional investment (3) Fixing real government spending, and (4) Implementing a tax replacement to compensate for lost revenue from trade (and production if present) tax collection net of subsidies that would no longer be paid after the reform. Specifically, a tax on factors of production is implemented to ensure that the share of net tax receipts in net national income remains unchanged in the face of the elimination of distortions. Implementing global results in single country models As indicated in Horridge and Zhai (2006), the aim is to let the single country model determine export supply behavior, and to take changes in demand by the rest of the world from the global model. In determining the export demand curve, the numbers to take from the global model are the slope (approximately equal to the elasticity of substitution among imports) and shift (fp) of the world demand schedule,3 where fp is calculated as fp = p + q/Elasticity of substitution among imports 3 This is pertinent to models in which exports and domestic goods are perfect substitutes, see Horridge and Zhai for details on models which assume imperfect substitution. 4 and p is the percentage change in export prices while q is the percentage change in export quantities. On the import side, the import price shocks are taken directly from the global model. In global models such as Linkage, the import supply curves to a small country are very flat; and single country models the import demand curves are comparatively steep because they typically use the import-domestic elasticities suggested by Armington (1969). Hence vertical shifts in import supply are well proxied by exogenous price changes.4 Linkage Model A key model specification of the LINKAGE model is that it contains three production technologies for agricultural activities: crops, livestock, and all else.5 The first, crops, attempts to capture the trade-offs between intensive and extensive farming. The second, livestock, captures the trade- offs between extensive grazing and intensive ranch-fed farming, by having substitution between feed grains and land. The third is the more traditional capital/labor substitution (albeit with a special additional nesting for energy use). Another key model specification is the treatment of land. In LINKAGE, land supply is variable with region-specific land supply elasticities. A listing of these and other key model elasticities is provided in table 3. For the purposes of the simulations in the present volume, LINKAGEs vintage capital structure elasticities are imposed in all production functions so that they emulate the long-run substitution possibilities. All runs use the following closure rules: Fixed real government expenditures and fiscal balance. To meet ex ante changes to revenues (for example, a loss of tariff revenues), the rate of lump sum direct taxation on 4 In this study the Linkage sectoral average trade volumes are derived using Divisia indexes. These are computed using weights that change over the course of the simulation. Effectively they are an average of before and after shares. Previous results from the Linkage Model were derived using the Paasche export price index (i.e. based on after-shock trade volumes). 5 There is a special version of the GTAP model with an agricultural focus known as GTAP-AGR (Keeney and Hertel 2005). 5 the single representative household is endogenous. While perhaps unrealistic in some countries in the short-run, this specification has the advantage of not adding to existing distortions in the economy. Private savings are endogenous and determined by the extended linear expenditure system (or ELES) of demand. Investment is determined as the sum of all available savings: private, public (fixed in real terms), and foreign (fixed in real terms relative to the model numéraire). As all three savings are more or less invariant (in nominal terms), major changes to the volume of investment are largely driven by changes in the unit cost of investment (e.g., a reduction in tariffs on imported capital goods). In the comparative static model this has only minor impacts that can be attributed to the final composition of demand (as investment has no effect on the capital stock in the comparative static version of the model). The capital account, and hence the current account, is fixed. The real exchange rate adjusts to clear ex ante changes to the current account. A reduction in import tariffs, for example, leads to an increase in import demand. The demand for the additional imports needs to be financed through an increase in exports, most often generated by a fall in the real exchange rate, i.e. a depreciation. Some of the other key features of the model include: The models numéraire is defined as the export price index of manufactured exports from high-income countries. This is set to 1 in the base year and in subsequent shocks. Aggregate labor supply is fixed and fully mobile across all sectors. Note that in the version of the model used in the present study, no exogenous assumptions are imposed on the relative rural/urban wage ratio, and wages are assumed to be uniform across sectors. Assuming inter-sectoral wage differentials (with or without perfect mobility) can lead to different results depending on whether, in aggregate, demand in the high-wage sectors is 6 greater than demand in low-wage sectors.6 Skilled labor is a substitute for unskilled labor and the composite labor bundle is substitutable with capital. Aggregate capital supply is fixed and fully mobile across all sectors.7 Agricultural land supply is endogenous, with land specified as either scarce or abundant. Land is perfectly mobile across agricultural industries. In terms of Linkage model results, the following should be noted: Changes in value added are computed with and without taxes/subsidies on the factors of production with the exception of wage taxes that are not used in this version of the model. The first definition reflects the total tax/subsidy inclusive cost of value added, the second reflects final payments to the owners of the factors of production. In the output provided to the authors, total value added at factor cost (i.e. tax/subsidy inclusive) is provided. Welfare is measured using the Hicksian equivalent variation in income. In the base year, the expenditure function is exactly equal to disposable income and reflects expenditures on goods and services and savings. After the shock, the expenditure function reflects the value of expenditures required to achieve the new level of utility at base year prices. It is very closely approximated by the value of nominal disposable income deflated by the consumer price index. In some countries, it may occur that the increase in the income (lump-sum) tax may not be fully compensated by a decline in consumer prices, taking into account changes into factor income as well. 6 A discussion on this and other labor market specification issues is available in van der Mensbrugghe (2007). 7 The fixed factor in the natural resource sectors is aggregated with capital. 7 References Anderson, K., J. Cockburn and W. Martin (eds.) (2010), Agricultural Price Distortions, Inequality and Poverty, forthcoming. Anderson, K., M. Kurzweil, W, Martin, D. Sandri and E. Valenzuela (2008a), ,,Methodology for Measuring Distortions to Agricultural Incentives, Appendix A in Anderson (2009). Anderson, K., M. Kurzweil, W. Martin, D. Sandri and E. Valenzuela (2008b), ,,Measuring Distortions to Agricultural Incentives, Revisited, World Trade Review 7(4): 1-30, October. Anderson K. and E. Valenzuela (2008),Estimates of Global Distortions to Agricultural Incentives, 1955 to 2007, World Bank, Washington DC, October, accessible at www.worldbank.org/agdistortions. Anderson, K., E. Valenzuela and D. van der Mensbrugghe (2010), "Global Poverty Effects of Agricultural and Trade Policies Using the Linkage Model", Ch. 2 in K. Anderson, J. Cockburn and W. Martin (eds.), Agricultural Price Distortions, Inequality and Poverty, fothcoming. Armington, P. (1969), "A Theory of Demand for Products Distinguished by Place of Production", IMF Staff Papers 16: 159-78. Arndt, C. and J. Thurlow (2010), "Mozambique", Ch. 9 in Anderson, Cockburn and Martin (2010). A preliminary version is available as Agricultural Distortions Working Paper 102, World Bank, Washington DC, June 2009, at www.worldbank.org/agdistortions. Bento de Souza, J. and M. Horridge (2010), "Brazil", Ch. 12 in Anderson, Cockburn and Martin (2010). A preliminary version is available as Agricultural Distortions Working Paper 105, World Bank, Washington DC, June 2009, at www.worldbank.org/agdistortions. Bussolo, M., R. De Hoyos and D. Medvedev (2010), "Global Income Distributional and Poverty Impacts of Agricultural Distortions", Ch. 3 in K. Anderson, J. Cockburn and W. Martin (eds.), Agricultural Price Distortions, Inequality and Poverty, fothcoming. Badri Narayanan, G. and T.L. Walmsley (eds.) (2008), Global Trade, Assistance, and Production: The GTAP 7 Data Base, West Lafayette IN: Center for Global Trade Analysis, Purdue University, downloadable at www.gtap.org. 8 Cicowiez, M., C. Diaz-Bonilla and E. Diaz-Bonilla (2010), "Argentina", Ch. 11 in Anderson, Cockburn and Martin (2010). A preliminary version is available as Agricultural Distortions Working Paper 104, World Bank, Washington DC, June 2009, at www.worldbank.org/agdistortions. Corong, E., C. Cororaton and J. Cockburn, (2010), "Philippines", Ch. 7 in Anderson, Cockburn and Martin (2010). A preliminary version is available as Agricultural Distortions Working Paper 100, World Bank, Washington DC, June 2009, at www.worldbank.org/agdistortions. Cororaton, C. and D. Orden (2010), "Pakistan", Ch. 8 in Anderson, Cockburn and Martin (2010). A preliminary version is available as Agricultural Distortions Working Paper 101, World Bank, Washington DC, June 2009, at www.worldbank.org/agdistortions. Dimaranan, B.D. (2007), Global Trade, Assistance and Protection: The GTAP 6 Data Base, West Lafayette IN: Center for Global Trade Analysis, Purdue University, downloadable at www.gtap.org. Herault, N. and J. Thurlow (2010), "South Africa", Ch. 10 in Anderson, Cockburn and Martin (2010). A preliminary version is available as Agricultural Distortions Working Paper 103, World Bank, Washington DC, June 2009, at www.worldbank.org/agdistortions. Horridge, M., and F. Zhai (2006), "Shocking a Single-Country CGE Model with Export Prices and Quantities from a Global Model", Appendix to Ch. 3 in T. Hertel and A. Winters (eds), Poverty and the WTO: Impacts of the Doha Development Agenda, London: Palgrave Macmillan and Washington DC: World Bank. Keeney, R. and T. Hertel (2005), "GTAP-AGR: A Framework for Assessing the Implications of Multilateral Changes in Agricultural Policies", GTAP Technical Paper No. 24, Purdue University, West Lafayette IN, August, at https://www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu/resources/download/2310.pdf Sanchez, M. and R. Vos (2010), "Nicaragua", Ch. 13 in Anderson, Cockburn and Martin (2010). A preliminary version is available as Agricultural Distortions Working Paper 106, World Bank, Washington DC, June 2009, at www.worldbank.org/agdistortions. Valenzuela, E. and K. Anderson (2008), ,,Alternative Agricultural Price Distortions for CGE Analysis of Developing Countries, 2004 and 1980-84, Research Memorandum No. 13, 9 Center for Global Trade Analysis, Purdue University, West Lafayette IN, December, accessible at www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu/resources/res_display.asp?RecordID=2925 van der Mensbrugghe, D. (2005), ,,LINKAGE Technical Reference Document: Version 6.0, Unpublished, World Bank, Washington DC, January 2005. Accessible at www.worldbank.org/prospects/linkagemodel van der Mensbrugghe, D. (2006), "LINKAGE Technical Reference Document: Version 6.1", processed,, Washington DC: World Bank. van der Mensbrugghe, D. (2007), "Modeling the Impact of Trade Liberalization: A Structuralist Perspective?" paper presented at the 10th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Purdue University, West Lafayette, 7-9 June, at https://www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu/resources/download/3332.pdf Warr, P. (2010), "Indonesia and Thailand", Ch. 6 in Anderson, Cockburn and Martin (2010). A preliminary version is available as Agricultural Distortions Working Paper 99, World Bank, Washington DC, June 2009, at www.worldbank.org/agdistortions. Zhai, F. and T. Hertel (2010), "China", Ch. 5 in Anderson, Cockburn and Martin (2010). A preliminary version is available as Agricultural Distortions Working Paper 98, World Bank, Washington DC, June 2009, at www.worldbank.org/agdistortions. 10 Table 1: Sectoral concordance of Linkage Model with GTAP Version 7 1 pdr Paddy rice 2 wht Wheat 3 gro Other grains 4 osd Oil seeds 5 c_b Sugar cane and beet 6 pfb Plant-based fibers 7 v_f Vegetables and fruits 8 ocr Other crops 9 ctl Cattle sheep etc 10 oap Other livestock 11 rmk Raw milk 12 wol Wool 13 cmt Beef and sheep meat 14 omt Other meat products 15 vol Vegetable oils and fats 16 mil Dairy products 17 pcr Processed rice 18 sgr Refined sugar 19 ofb Other food, beverages and tobacco Food products n.e.s. (ofd), Beverages and tobacco products (b_t) 20 prm Other primary products Forestry (frs), Fishing (fsh), Coal (coa), Oil (oil), Gas (gas), Minerals n.e.s. (omn) 21 twp Textile and wearing apparel Textiles (tex), Wearing apparel (wap), Leather products (lea) 22 omx Other manufacturing Wood products (lum), Paper products, publishing (ppp), Petroleum, coal products (p_c), Chemical, rubber, plastic products (crp), Mineral products n.e.s. (nmm), Ferrous metals (i_s), Metals n.e.s. (nfm), Metal products (fmp), Motor vehicles and parts (mvh), Transport equipment n.e.s. (otn), Electronic equipment (ele), Machinery and equipment n.e.s. (ome), Manufactures n.e.s. (omf) 23 srv Services Electricity (ely), Gas manufacture, distribution (gdt), Water (wtr), Construction (cns), Trade (trd), Transport n.e.s. (otp), Sea transport (wtp), Air transport (atp), Communication (cmn), Financial services n.e.s. (ofi), Insurance (isr), Business services n.e.s. (obs), Recreation and other services (ros), Public administration and defence, education, health services (osg), Dwellings (dwe) Source: van der Mensbrugghe (2005) and Badri Narayanan and Walmsley (2008). 11 Table 2: Regional concordance of Linkage Model with GTAP Version 7 database 1 aus Australia 2 nzl New Zealand 3 jpn Japan 4 kor Korea 5 twn Taiwan 6 hyc Hong Kong and Singapore Hong Kong (hkg), Singapore (sgp) 7 can Canada 8 usa United States 9 e15 EU 15 Austria (aut), Belgium (bel), Denmark (dnk), Finland (fin), France (fra), Germany (deu), Greece (grc), Ireland (irl), Italy (ita), Luxembourg (lux), Netherlands (nld), Portugal (prt), Spain (esp), Sweden (swe), United Kingdom (gbr) 10 xer Rest of Western Europe Cyprus (cyp), Malta (mlt), Switzerland (che), Rest of EFTA (xef), Rest of Europe (xer) 11 bgr Bulgaria 12 cze Czech Republic 13 est Estonia 14 hun Hungary 15 lva Latvia 16 ltu Lithuania 17 kaz Kazakhstan 18 kgz Kyrgystan 19 pol Poland 20 rom Romania 21 svk Slovakia 22 svn Slovenia 23 rus Russia 24 tur Turkey 25 xca Rest of ECA Albania (alb), Croatia (hrv), Ukraine (ukr), Rest of Eastern Europe (xee), Armenia (arm), Azerbaijan (aze), Geogia (geo), Rest of Former Soviet Union (xsu) 26 mde Middle East Iran (irn), Rest of Western Asia (xws) 27 egy Egypt 28 mar Morocco 29 xnf Rest of North Africa Tunisia (tun), Rest of North Africa (xnf) 30 zaf South Africa 31 mdg Madagascar 32 moz Mozambique 33 zmb Zambia 34 zwe Zimbabwe 35 wcf Rest of Western & Central Africa Rest of Western Africa (xwf), Central Africa (xcf), South-Central 12 Africa (xac) 36 uga Uganda 37 tza Tanzania 38 nga Nigeria 39 sen Senegal 40 xss Rest of Sub-Saharan Africa Malawi (mwi), Mauritius (mus), Rest of Eastern Africa (xec), Botswana (bwa), Rest of South African Customs Union (xsc) 41 chn China 42 idn Indonesia 43 mys Malaysia 44 phl Philippines 45 tha Thailand 46 vnm Vietnam 47 xea Rest of East Asia Rest of Oceania (xoc), Rest of East Asia (xea), Cambodia (khm), Rest of Southeast Asia (xse) 48 bgd Bangladesh 49 ind India 50 pak Pakistan 51 lka Sri Lanka 52 xsa Other South Asia 53 arg Argentina 54 bra Brazil 55 chl Chile 56 col Colombia 57 ecu Ecuador 58 mex Mexico 59 nic Nicaragua 60 xlc Rest of LAC Rest of North America (xna), Bolivia (bol), Paraguay (pry), Peru (per), Uruguay (ury), Venezuela (ven), Rest of South America (xsm), Rest of Central America (xca), Caribbean (xcb) Source: van der Mensbrugghe (2005) and Badri Narayanan and Walmsley (2008). 13 Table 3: Key elasticities in the Linkage Model (a) Production elasticities Long-run parameter Elasticity across inputs (excl. sector-specific and energy inputs) 0.0 Elasticity between value added (including energy) and other inputs 0.0 Elasticity between capital+energy bundle and labor 1.0 Elasticity across labor inputs 0.5 Elasticity between capital and energy 0.8 Elasticity between capital and sector specific factors 0.0 Elasticity across fuel inputs 2.0 Elasticity between chemicals and land-capital input 0.5 Elasticity between feed and land 0.5 Elasticity across agricultural chemicals 0.5 Elasticity across feed in livestock 0.5 (b) Armington elasticitiesa pdr Paddy riceb 4.45 wht Wheat 5.85 gro Other grains 4.93 v_f Vegetables and fruits 3.94 osd Oil seeds 4.75 c_b Sugar cane and beet 5.91 pfb Plant-based fibers 3.94 ocr Other crops 3.94 ctl Cattle sheep etc 3.94 oap Other livestock 3.94 rmk Raw milk 3.94 wol Wool 3.94 cmt Beef and sheep meat 3.94 omt Other meat products 3.94 vol Vegetable oils and fats 3.94 mil Dairy products 3.94 pcr Processed riceb 4.45 sgr Refined sugar 5.91 ofb Other food, beverages and tobacco 3.94 prm Other primary products 4.31 twp Textile and wearing apparel 4.11 omx Other manufacturing 4.09 srv Services 2.08 Note: a. The elasticities in this table represent the top-level trade elasticities, i.e. the substitution between the aggregate domestic good and aggregate imports. The second level elasticity, i.e. the substitution across imports by region of origin is double the top- level using the so-called rule of 2. b. For convergence reasons, the rice trade elasticities for Japan, Korea and Taiwan have been set to 1.5, 1 and 1.5 respectively for both levels of the elasticities and for both pdr and pcr. 14 Table 3 (continued): Key elasticities in the Linkage Model (c) Land supply elasticitiesb aus Australia 1.00 nzl New Zealand 1.00 jpn Japan 0.25 kor Korea 0.25 twn Taiwan 0.25 hyc Hong Kong and Singapore 0.25 can Canada 1.00 usa United States 1.00 e15 EU 15 0.25 xer Rest of Western Europe 0.25 bgr Bulgaria 0.25 cze Czech Republic 0.25 est Estonia 0.25 hun Hungary 0.25 lva Latvia 0.25 ltu Lithuania 0.25 kaz Kazakhstan 1.00 kgz Kyrgystan 1.00 pol Poland 0.25 rom Romania 0.25 svk Slovakia 0.25 svn Slovenia 0.25 rus Russia 1.00 tur Turkey 1.00 xca Rest of ECA 0.25 mde Middle East 0.25 egy Egypt 0.25 mar Morocco 0.25 xnf Rest of North Africa 0.25 zaf South Africa 1.00 mdg Madagascar 1.00 moz Mozambique 1.00 zmb Zambia 1.00 zwe Zimbabwe 1.00 wcf Rest of Western & Central Africa 1.00 uga Uganda 1.00 tza Tanzania 1.00 nga Nigeria 1.00 sen Senegal 1.00 xss Rest of Sub-Saharan Africa 1.00 chn China 0.25 idn Indonesia 1.00 mys Malaysia 1.00 phl Philippines 1.00 tha Thailand 1.00 vnm Vietnam 1.00 xea Rest of East Asia 1.00 bgd Bangladesh 0.25 ind India 0.25 pak Pakistan 0.25 lka Sri Lanka 0.25 xsa Other South Asia 0.25 arg Argentina 1.00 bra Brazil 1.00 chl Chile 1.00 col Colombia 1.00 ecu Ecuador 1.00 mex Mexico 0.25 nic Nicaragua 0.25 xlc Rest of LAC 1.00 b Countries/regions are classified as either land abundant (with an elasticity of 1) or land scarce (with an elasticity of 0.25). Source: van der Mensbrugghe (2005). 15 Table 4: Price distortion structurea in GTAP version 7p5 and in the distortion rates drawn from the World Bank project, 2004 (percent) GTAP version 7p5 Amended rates Agriculture and Agriculture and Primary Lightly Processed Other Primary Lightly Other Agriculture Food goods Agriculture Processed Food goods Domestic Export Domestic Export Support Subsidy Tariff Tariff Support Subsidy Tariff Tariff Australia 0.0 0.0 0.7 3.3 0.0 0.0 0.5 3.3 New Zealand 0.0 0.0 2.8 3.3 0.0 -0.2 0.7 3.3 EU15 1.0 10.8 7.1 0.7 1.2 12.8 6.9 0.7 Rest West Europe 2.6 8.6 52.9 2.2 2.6 13.4 53.9 2.2 Russia 1.7 -0.1 7.5 7.4 1.7 -0.9 18.9 7.4 Kazakhstan -0.9 0.0 2.9 2.7 -0.9 0.0 3.4 2.7 Kyrgystan -1.0 -0.1 3.1 5.0 -1.0 -0.1 3.8 5.0 Turkey 0.8 0.0 29.0 3.1 0.8 0.0 33.3 3.1 RestECA -1.1 0.0 9.8 5.7 -1.1 -0.9 9.9 5.7 Bulgary 0.6 0.0 17.0 11.5 0.6 0.0 14.8 11.5 CZE Republic 0.6 10.2 3.1 0.5 0.6 0.0 3.0 0.5 Estonia 0.0 9.7 6.2 0.9 0.0 0.0 5.0 0.9 Hungary 3.1 9.7 6.6 0.5 3.1 0.0 6.2 0.5 Latvia 13.1 9.9 3.7 0.9 13.3 0.0 3.3 0.9 Lituania 0.5 9.4 13.1 1.0 0.5 0.0 12.1 1.0 Poland 0.4 8.3 6.1 0.8 0.4 0.0 6.2 0.8 Romania 1.3 0.0 19.8 9.8 1.3 0.0 18.0 9.8 Slovakia 0.0 10.4 5.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 5.2 0.4 Slovenia 0.0 10.5 6.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 7.8 0.4 USA 4.0 0.5 2.5 1.3 5.2 0.6 6.1 1.3 Canada 1.6 2.0 23.1 1.4 1.6 3.6 18.9 1.4 Japan 2.0 0.0 141.1 1.7 2.0 0.0 151.7 1.7 Korea 0.0 0.0 172.7 5.9 0.0 0.0 319.4 5.9 Taiwan -0.4 0.0 77.4 3.9 -0.4 0.0 84.2 3.9 OthHYC 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 China 0.0 0.0 12.6 7.1 0.0 0.2 6.5 7.1 Indonesia 0.0 0.0 6.4 4.9 0.0 -1.6 7.3 4.9 Malasya 0.0 0.0 2.4 5.9 0.0 -0.2 5.0 5.9 Philippines -4.7 0.0 20.0 3.4 -4.7 0.0 7.1 3.4 Thailand -0.2 0.0 22.1 12.9 -0.2 0.0 26.2 12.9 Vietnam -3.6 0.0 15.5 18.5 -3.6 -0.5 21.5 18.5 Bangladesh -1.0 0.0 16.3 22.5 -1.0 0.0 9.9 22.5 India 3.9 0.0 29.8 20.9 10.1 2.5 2.9 20.8 Pakistan 0.0 0.0 10.8 18.5 0.0 -0.2 19.4 18.5 Sri Lanka 0.6 0.2 24.3 5.8 0.6 -0.3 23.8 5.8 Rest Sasia -0.5 0.0 5.0 15.6 -0.5 0.0 6.9 15.6 Rest Easia -0.7 0.0 2.8 2.3 -0.7 0.0 3.2 2.3 RestME -12.4 0.0 9.0 5.7 -12.4 0.0 7.5 5.7 Egypt 0.0 0.0 4.0 13.5 0.0 0.0 5.0 13.5 (continued) 16 Table 4 (continued): Price distortion structurea in GTAP version 7p5 and in the distortion rates drawn from the World Bank project, 2004 (percent) GTAP version 7p5 Amended rates Agriculture and Agriculture and Primary Lightly Processed Other Primary Lightly Other Agriculture Food goods Agriculture Processed Food goods Domestic Export Domestic Export Support Subsidy Tariff Tariff Support Subsidy Tariff Tariff Morocco 0.0 -0.3 33.3 20.0 0.0 -0.4 28.4 20.0 RestNAfrica -3.9 0.5 24.9 13.1 -3.9 1.3 30.7 13.1 South Africa 0.0 0.0 9.7 6.5 0.0 0.0 10.2 6.5 Madagascar 0.0 0.0 3.9 2.7 0.0 -4.4 3.4 2.7 Mozambique 0.2 0.0 12.5 10.9 0.2 0.0 14.5 10.9 Zambia -0.8 0.0 5.6 9.0 -0.8 0.0 7.0 9.0 Zimbabwe -3.2 0.0 13.6 15.4 -3.2 0.0 8.9 15.4 Uganda 0.0 0.0 9.5 5.5 0.0 -2.6 9.2 5.5 Tanzania -0.3 0.0 11.6 13.7 -0.3 0.0 11.8 13.7 Nigeria 0.1 0.0 74.0 17.2 0.1 0.0 76.1 17.2 Senegal 0.0 0.0 8.4 8.9 0.0 -1.1 6.2 8.9 RestWCAfrica -0.2 0.0 10.5 8.9 -0.2 0.0 10.8 8.9 RestAfrica -0.4 0.0 10.4 14.1 -0.4 0.0 10.6 14.1 Argentina -4.9 0.0 2.9 5.7 0.0 -14.8 0.0 5.8 Brazil 0.0 0.0 4.5 8.9 0.0 0.0 4.8 8.9 Chile -1.7 0.0 1.3 1.8 0.0 0.0 2.4 1.8 Colombia 0.0 0.0 12.9 9.8 0.0 0.0 21.6 9.8 Ecuador 0.0 0.0 6.8 10.4 0.0 0.0 13.4 10.4 Mexico 1.3 0.0 8.6 3.4 1.2 0.0 6.2 3.4 Nicaragua 0.0 0.0 8.0 3.9 0.0 -2.8 9.6 3.9 RestLAC -1.7 0.6 9.8 9.9 -1.7 0.3 9.9 9.9 a Using value of production at undistorted prices as weights. Source: GTAP version 7p5 rates (since amended to create the final Version 7 by Badri Narayanan and Walmsley 2008) and the new rates from the World Banks Agricultural Distortions global database compiled by Valenzuela and Anderson (2008). 17 Table 5: Export price, import price and export demand shocks to national models from agricultural and trade policy reform by rest-of-world, selected developing countries (percent deviation from baseline) (a) Argentina (Global results excluding Argentina) Export price impact Export quantity impact Import price impact All goods Agric only All goods Agric only All goods Agric only Paddy rice 4.8 5.6 -98.7 -98.8 .. .. Wheat 5.0 5.7 21.7 17.4 .. .. Other grains 4.7 5.5 30.8 33.6 4.8 6.5 Oil seeds 4.8 5.6 31.1 30.1 2.8 5.0 Sugar cane and beet .. .. .. .. .. .. Plant-based fibers 4.0 4.9 30.9 36.3 7.8 9.2 Vegetables and fruits 5.1 5.9 -34.3 -31.9 6.4 7.7 Other crops 5.6 6.4 -24.3 -22.5 3.9 4.9 Cattle sheep etc 5.5 6.2 -36.2 -33.4 1.7 2.9 Other livestock 4.7 5.5 28.9 33.3 1.5 2.7 Raw milk .. .. .. .. .. .. Wool 5.4 6.2 -34.1 -30.2 2.7 2.6 Beef and sheep meat 4.5 5.3 105.2 113.8 5.7 7.4 Other meat products 4.0 4.8 148.7 154.5 5.7 6.7 Vegetable oils and fats 4.2 5.0 -16.2 -15.9 0.4 1.6 Dairy products 3.8 4.7 426.9 439.4 7.1 9.2 Processed rice 4.1 4.9 -90.2 -91.5 -0.6 1.9 Refined sugar 3.9 4.7 67.4 86.3 .. .. Other food, beverages and tobacco 3.3 4.1 12.3 -26.5 3.5 2.1 Other primary products 3.0 3.8 -21.0 -19.0 2.1 2.9 Textile and wearing apparel 2.8 3.7 -2.4 -20.5 0.8 2.6 Other manufacturing 2.6 3.5 -25.8 -18.3 0.4 1.8 Services 3.0 3.8 -12.0 -13.4 -0.3 0.3 Agriculture and food 4.3 5.1 21.2 17.3 4.0 4.1 Agriculture 4.9 5.7 14.7 14.7 4.5 5.9 Processed foods 4.0 4.8 25.2 18.9 3.7 3.1 Other manufacturing 2.7 3.6 -22.7 -18.6 0.5 1.9 Nontradeables 3.0 3.8 -12.0 -13.4 -0.3 0.3 Total 3.6 4.4 -0.5 -0.9 0.4 1.6 Merchandise trade 3.7 4.5 1.1 0.9 0.6 1.9 18 Table 5 (continued): Export price, import price and export demand shocks to national models from agricultural and trade policy reform by rest-of-world, selected developing countries (b) Brazil (Global results excluding Brazil) Export price impact Export quantity impact Import price impact All goods Agric only All goods Agric only All goods Agric only Paddy rice .. .. .. .. 4.8 6.4 Wheat 7.1 7.2 19.6 33.7 -2.8 -3.5 Other grains 8.4 8.6 19.9 21.8 -3.3 -3.1 Oil seeds 8.1 8.3 -23.9 -21.8 1.5 3.2 Sugar cane and beet .. .. .. .. .. .. Plant-based fibers 8.7 8.9 -2.4 1.0 14.4 16.7 Vegetables and fruits 8.6 8.9 -54.8 -51.7 7.1 7.2 Other crops 9.0 9.3 6.4 14.3 0.0 0.7 Cattle sheep etc 8.9 9.1 -51.9 -47.8 1.1 2.3 Other livestock 8.8 9.0 -41.5 -38.4 0.0 1.0 Raw milk .. .. .. .. .. .. Wool 10.8 11.1 -55.5 -47.7 .. .. Beef and sheep meat 7.6 7.7 918.9 972.6 5.1 6.6 Other meat products 7.8 8.0 76.2 84.7 -3.4 -2.7 Vegetable oils and fats 6.8 6.9 -40.6 -40.8 -0.8 -0.3 Dairy products 7.0 7.1 572.8 626.0 10.5 11.1 Processed rice 6.7 6.8 -27.5 -28.0 4.0 5.3 Refined sugar 6.5 6.6 140.7 164.1 .. .. Other food, beverages and tobacco 6.1 6.1 84.5 -38.1 7.3 2.4 Other primary products 5.6 5.7 -30.5 -33.5 -2.6 1.4 Textile and wearing apparel 5.4 5.5 -27.6 -30.3 0.1 1.2 Other manufacturing 5.1 5.2 -32.4 -29.5 0.6 0.7 Services 5.9 5.9 -21.7 -20.5 -0.2 0.3 Agriculture and food 7.5 7.7 92.8 87.0 3.4 1.9 Agriculture 8.5 8.7 -12.7 -8.5 0.9 1.0 Processed foods 7.1 7.3 166.2 153.4 6.0 2.9 Other manufacturing 5.2 5.3 -31.8 -30.1 0.3 0.8 Nontradeables 5.9 5.9 -21.7 -20.5 -0.2 0.3 Total 6.1 6.3 2.2 1.9 0.3 0.7 Merchandise trade 6.1 6.3 4.9 4.4 0.5 0.8 19 Table 5 (continued): Export price, import price and export demand shocks to national models from agricultural and trade policy reform by rest-of-world, selected developing countries (c) China (Global results excluding China) Export price impact Export quantity impact Import price impact All goods Agric only All goods Agric only All goods Agric only Paddy rice 4.2 1.8 94.9 123.6 .. .. Wheat 3.5 1.4 15.5 45.8 2.9 3.6 Other grains 3.9 1.6 105.1 157.7 6.5 6.5 Oil seeds 4.0 1.7 10.3 42.9 -2.8 -2.3 Sugar cane and beet .. .. .. .. .. .. Plant-based fibers 3.3 1.3 30.0 51.4 10.0 11.5 Vegetables and fruits 4.2 1.8 185.5 232.9 1.9 1.6 Other crops 4.5 2.0 -12.7 8.4 1.3 1.5 Cattle sheep etc 4.4 1.9 -18.6 -3.1 6.5 6.6 Other livestock 3.8 1.6 -20.8 -0.2 0.7 1.6 Raw milk 4.1 1.7 -48.3 -31.7 -1.8 -0.7 Wool 3.8 1.6 -13.1 10.1 4.9 4.9 Beef and sheep meat 3.4 1.3 -1.8 21.0 7.0 7.6 Other meat products 3.5 1.3 30.7 58.1 1.9 2.8 Vegetable oils and fats 1.8 0.3 -6.4 5.7 -0.2 -0.9 Dairy products 2.9 0.8 191.2 251.6 10.9 11.4 Processed rice 3.0 0.9 148.8 192.1 4.2 3.4 Refined sugar 3.0 0.8 410.2 560.4 1.4 2.0 Other food, bev. & tob. 2.9 0.8 66.4 -16.0 0.0 -1.0 Other primary product 2.7 0.6 -7.8 2.0 0.5 1.1 Textile and wearing apparel 2.6 0.8 13.7 -2.1 -0.2 0.4 Other manufacturing 2.2 0.5 -3.3 -1.6 0.7 0.3 Services 2.5 0.5 -10.5 -0.9 0.1 0.2 Agriculture and food 3.3 1.2 66.6 33.8 1.4 1.5 Agriculture 4.1 1.8 72.2 106.3 1.8 2.4 Processed foods 3.0 0.9 63.9 -0.4 0.9 0.3 Other manufacturing 2.3 0.5 0.6 -1.6 0.6 0.3 Nontradeables 2.5 0.5 -10.5 -0.9 0.1 0.2 Total 2.4 0.6 2.2 -0.3 0.6 0.4 Merchandise trade 2.4 0.6 3.2 -0.3 0.7 0.4 20 Table 5 (continued): Export price, import price and export demand shocks to national models from agricultural and trade policy reform by rest-of-world, selected developing countries (d) Indonesia (Global results excluding Indonesia) Export price impact Export quantity impact Import price impact All goods Agric only All goods Agric only All goods Agric only Paddy rice .. .. .. .. 4.3 2.7 Wheat .. .. .. .. 6.8 7.1 Other grains 3.1 1.4 50.8 69.4 -2.7 -2.8 Oil seeds 3.0 1.3 -13.6 7.6 -1.8 -1.3 Sugar cane and beet .. .. .. .. .. .. Plant-based fibers 3.1 1.4 2.8 38.2 7.6 8.7 Vegetables and fruits 3.1 1.4 5.4 20.9 2.6 1.9 Other crops 3.0 1.3 -13.4 2.6 1.5 1.8 Cattle sheep etc 3.0 1.3 1.1 24.3 5.6 5.5 Other livestock 2.7 1.1 -18.3 -5.2 -1.9 -0.6 Raw milk .. .. .. .. .. .. Wool .. .. .. .. 9.8 10.0 Beef and sheep meat 3.0 1.4 -61.2 -50.8 5.6 5.7 Other meat products 2.5 0.8 185.5 265.8 3.3 3.6 Vegetable oils and fats 2.5 0.9 8.9 22.5 0.4 1.1 Dairy products 2.7 1.1 419.3 514.3 8.6 8.8 Processed rice 3.0 1.3 -38.1 -28.7 3.7 2.8 Refined sugar 2.6 1.0 445.7 502.2 2.9 2.5 Other food, beverages and tobacco 2.4 0.9 106.0 -12.7 -0.8 -0.7 Other primary products 2.1 0.6 -8.6 2.3 1.3 0.8 Textile and wearing apparel 2.1 1.0 11.4 -3.9 -0.3 0.4 Other manufacturing 1.9 0.6 -4.3 -2.6 0.4 0.4 Services 2.1 0.6 -9.0 -1.4 -0.2 0.2 Agriculture and food 2.5 1.0 39.0 12.9 3.0 3.2 Agriculture 3.0 1.3 -11.2 4.4 4.1 4.5 Processed foods 2.5 0.9 51.4 15.0 1.7 1.8 Other manufacturing 2.0 0.6 -2.4 -2.0 0.4 0.4 Nontradeables 2.1 0.6 -9.0 -1.4 -0.2 0.2 Total 2.1 0.7 2.2 -0.1 0.5 0.6 Merchandise trade 2.1 0.7 3.1 0.0 0.7 0.8 21 Table 5 (continued): Export price, import price and export demand shocks to national models from agricultural and trade policy reform by rest-of-world, selected developing countries (e) Mozambique (Global results excluding Mozambique) Export price impact Export quantity impact Import price impact All goods Agric only All goods Agric only All goods Agric only Paddy rice .. .. .. .. 8.5 9.7 Wheat .. .. .. .. -0.9 -0.8 Other grains 1.1 1.4 3.4 19.7 2.6 4.1 Oil seeds 0.6 0.9 496.8 567.8 -2.7 -1.5 Sugar cane and beet .. .. .. .. .. .. Plant-based fibers 0.7 1.2 48.4 56.4 .. .. Vegetables and fruits 1.0 1.3 -9.7 -2.8 -1.2 0.1 Other crops 1.1 1.4 8.7 16.0 -0.7 0.3 Cattle sheep etc .. .. .. .. .. .. Other livestock .. .. .. .. -1.7 -0.1 Raw milk .. .. .. .. .. .. Wool .. .. .. .. .. .. Beef and sheep meat .. .. .. .. -1.3 0.1 Other meat products .. .. .. .. 1.6 3.1 Vegetable oils and fats 0.3 0.7 13.1 10.8 -0.3 -0.8 Dairy products .. .. .. .. -0.9 0.4 Processed rice .. .. .. .. 3.3 3.2 Refined sugar 0.4 0.9 -21.9 -11.9 -1.4 -0.1 Other food, beverages and tobacco 0.4 0.7 -5.8 -15.7 1.9 -0.3 Other primary products 0.8 1.1 38.4 -3.1 0.6 0.4 Textile and wearing apparel 0.3 0.8 22.3 -3.2 -1.3 0.6 Other manufacturing 0.2 0.7 -7.6 -5.1 -0.8 0.2 Services 0.3 0.7 1.7 1.0 -0.3 0.3 Agriculture and food 0.7 1.0 15.7 18.0 0.5 0.3 Agriculture 0.9 1.3 37.7 48.9 -0.5 0.0 Processed foods 0.4 0.7 -6.9 -13.6 1.1 0.5 Other manufacturing 0.2 0.7 -5.2 -5.0 -0.8 0.3 Nontradeables 0.3 0.7 1.7 1.0 -0.3 0.3 Total 0.3 0.7 -0.3 0.0 -0.5 0.3 Merchandise trade 0.3 0.8 -1.1 -0.5 -0.5 0.3 22 Table 5 (continued): Export price, import price and export demand shocks to national models from agricultural and trade policy reform by rest-of-world, selected developing countries (f) Nicaragua (Global results excluding Nicaragua) Export price impact Export quantity impact Import price impact All goods Agric only All goods Agric only All goods Agric only Paddy rice .. .. .. .. 8.5 9.7 Wheat .. .. .. .. 2.1 3.1 Other grains .. .. .. .. 16.4 17.6 Oil seeds 2.3 2.7 41.2 49.4 .. .. Sugar cane and beet .. .. .. .. .. .. Plant-based fibers .. .. .. .. .. .. Vegetables and fruits 2.4 2.8 -18.0 -15.2 2.6 4.6 Other crops 2.5 2.9 -18.2 -14.2 7.2 9.1 Cattle sheep etc 2.8 3.3 21.7 31.3 18.7 21.0 Other livestock 3.0 3.5 -30.5 -24.7 1.7 3.7 Raw milk .. .. .. .. .. .. Wool .. .. .. .. .. .. Beef and sheep meat 1.5 2.0 30.3 36.2 2.0 3.1 Other meat products 2.3 2.8 64.1 72.7 5.9 7.7 Vegetable oils and fats 1.8 2.1 -24.2 -22.5 -0.1 1.3 Dairy products 2.2 2.5 -8.7 -0.6 5.8 7.7 Processed rice .. .. .. .. -0.1 1.1 Refined sugar 1.7 2.0 49.3 64.8 .. .. Other food, beverages and tobacco 1.8 2.1 8.5 -13.3 1.1 1.4 Other primary products 1.5 1.6 -27.5 -4.9 -0.5 2.1 Textile and wearing apparel 1.3 1.4 5.6 -4.8 0.2 0.6 Other manufacturing 1.1 1.4 -23.1 -7.1 0.0 1.0 Services 1.4 1.4 -6.2 -4.8 -0.4 0.2 Agriculture and food 2.0 2.4 9.4 8.9 2.4 3.3 Agriculture 2.5 2.9 -2.1 3.2 5.6 6.9 Processed foods 1.7 2.1 18.1 13.1 1.0 1.7 Other manufacturing 1.2 1.4 -2.6 -5.4 0.0 1.0 Nontradeables 1.4 1.4 -6.2 -4.8 -0.4 0.2 Total 1.5 1.8 1.2 -0.1 0.3 1.3 Merchandise trade 1.6 1.8 2.5 0.6 0.4 1.4 23 Table 5 (continued): Export price, import price and export demand shocks to national models from agricultural and trade policy reform by rest-of-world, selected developing countries (g) Pakistan (Global results excluding Pakistan) Export price impact Export quantity impact Import price impact All goods Agric only All goods Agric only All goods Agric only Paddy rice 1.4 1.0 117.4 138.0 .. .. Wheat .. .. .. .. 2.4 3.1 Other grains .. .. .. .. 13.6 14.6 Oil seeds 1.6 1.2 76.7 103.1 1.5 1.9 Sugar cane and beet .. .. .. .. .. .. Plant-based fibers 1.3 1.0 57.8 59.2 4.4 6.7 Vegetables and fruits 1.4 1.0 -20.9 -13.7 -2.9 -2.6 Other crops 1.5 1.1 -17.7 -1.6 -1.9 0.0 Cattle sheep etc 1.4 1.0 -42.1 -28.1 .. .. Other livestock 1.4 1.0 -20.5 -9.1 -8.0 -6.8 Raw milk 1.4 1.0 -36.5 -27.6 .. .. Wool .. .. .. .. -10.5 -8.8 Beef and sheep meat 1.1 0.6 -39.4 -31.0 2.2 3.2 Other meat products .. .. .. .. 0.2 1.4 Vegetable oils and fats 1.1 0.7 -28.0 -26.7 1.8 0.4 Dairy products 1.2 0.7 22.0 49.6 16.8 17.8 Processed rice 1.2 0.7 25.8 34.0 8.2 10.2 Refined sugar 1.1 0.6 -26.3 -5.3 1.6 3.4 Other food, beverages and tobacco 1.1 0.6 3.6 -14.0 0.0 -1.7 Other primary products 1.0 0.4 20.0 1.8 -0.1 0.8 Textile and wearing apparel 1.0 0.7 3.1 -2.1 -0.7 0.5 Other manufacturing 0.7 0.5 -2.4 -1.9 -0.4 0.4 Services 0.9 0.5 -4.5 -0.6 -0.2 0.2 Agriculture and food 1.2 0.8 10.8 15.0 1.6 2.0 Agriculture 1.4 1.0 15.7 25.6 1.5 3.0 Processed foods 1.1 0.7 9.1 11.4 1.7 0.5 Other manufacturing 0.9 0.7 2.3 -2.0 -0.4 0.4 Nontradeables 0.9 0.5 -4.5 -0.6 -0.2 0.2 Total 1.0 0.6 2.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.5 Merchandise trade 1.0 0.7 3.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.6 24 Table 5 (continued): Export price, import price and export demand shocks to national models from agricultural and trade policy reform by rest-of-world, selected developing countries (h) Philippines (Global results excluding Philippines) Export price impact Export quantity impact Import price impact All goods Agric only All goods Agric only All goods Agric only Paddy rice .. .. .. .. .. .. Wheat .. .. .. .. 3.0 3.9 Other grains .. .. .. .. 6.1 5.7 Oil seeds .. .. .. .. -0.8 -0.5 Sugar cane and beet .. .. .. .. .. .. Plant-based fibers 5.5 3.7 4.0 32.7 13.8 15.6 Vegetables and fruits 5.7 3.8 35.8 51.0 2.4 1.7 Other crops 5.9 3.9 -30.3 -10.6 1.3 1.4 Cattle sheep etc .. .. .. .. 5.6 5.5 Other livestock 5.6 3.6 -30.0 -12.2 -1.0 0.1 Raw milk .. .. .. .. .. .. Wool .. .. .. .. .. .. Beef and sheep meat 3.7 2.0 -95.3 -94.0 2.8 4.5 Other meat products 4.7 2.7 14.0 42.0 -0.2 0.3 Vegetable oils and fats 2.6 0.9 -10.3 5.9 -1.1 -1.7 Dairy products 4.9 4.2 13.0 19.6 7.0 7.4 Processed rice 5.3 3.3 -65.7 -59.7 4.3 1.6 Refined sugar 3.9 2.0 885.2 1238.4 2.1 0.8 Other food, beverages and tobacco 3.6 2.0 73.0 -20.0 1.6 -0.4 Other primary products 2.8 1.0 12.6 -1.9 0.6 0.9 Textile and wearing apparel 2.0 1.1 12.4 -4.0 -0.2 0.4 Other manufacturing 2.1 0.7 -5.1 -3.7 1.5 0.3 Services 2.9 1.1 -11.9 -3.6 -0.1 0.2 Agriculture and food 4.3 2.5 64.2 46.6 2.5 1.7 Agriculture 5.7 3.8 32.6 48.1 2.6 3.0 Processed foods 3.5 1.8 82.6 45.7 2.4 1.3 Other manufacturing 2.1 0.7 -3.8 -3.7 1.3 0.3 Nontradeables 2.9 1.1 -11.9 -3.6 -0.1 0.2 Total 2.3 0.9 -0.4 -0.9 1.3 0.4 Merchandise trade 2.3 0.9 0.3 -0.7 1.4 0.5 25 Table 5 (continued): Export price, import price and export demand shocks to national models from agricultural and trade policy reform by rest-of-world, selected developing countries (i) South Africa (Global results excluding South Africa) Export price impact Export quantity impact Import price impact All goods Agric only All goods Agric only All goods Agric only Paddy rice .. .. .. .. .. .. Wheat 0.5 0.4 21.6 -15.9 0.7 0.7 Other grains 0.5 0.3 48.6 59.3 -5.5 -5.5 Oil seeds 0.5 0.3 -25.5 -13.7 -2.3 -2.0 Sugar cane and beet .. .. .. .. .. .. Plant-based fibers 0.4 0.3 53.2 52.9 -1.2 -0.1 Vegetables and fruits 0.5 0.3 -38.6 -33.7 -0.9 -0.4 Other crops 0.5 0.3 7.0 10.9 1.9 2.8 Cattle sheep etc 0.5 0.3 5.7 17.1 -2.2 -0.4 Other livestock 0.6 0.3 -10.5 -1.2 0.7 1.4 Raw milk 0.5 0.3 -32.0 -23.8 .. .. Wool 0.4 0.4 4.1 11.0 19.5 19.8 Beef and sheep meat 0.5 0.4 443.5 489.9 5.1 5.8 Other meat products 0.6 0.4 -11.4 -1.9 3.7 4.8 Vegetable oils and fats 0.3 0.1 -1.1 0.7 -1.8 -2.5 Dairy products 0.6 0.5 405.9 447.6 16.6 17.5 Processed rice 0.6 0.5 -47.2 -41.5 5.0 4.6 Refined sugar 0.5 0.4 147.2 173.5 1.2 2.1 Other food, beverages and tobacco 0.5 0.4 58.3 -10.4 5.0 -0.4 Other primary products 0.5 0.4 0.3 1.0 0.2 0.7 Textile and wearing apparel 0.3 0.4 -21.2 -0.1 -0.9 0.5 Other manufacturing 0.4 0.4 -2.3 -1.2 -0.3 0.2 Services 0.6 0.4 -2.7 -0.6 -0.1 0.3 Agriculture and food 0.5 0.4 31.3 7.7 2.2 0.6 Agriculture 0.5 0.3 -23.7 -18.6 -0.3 0.3 Processed foods 0.5 0.4 80.2 31.0 3.4 0.8 Other manufacturing 0.5 0.4 -2.4 -0.8 -0.3 0.3 Nontradeables 0.6 0.4 -2.7 -0.6 -0.1 0.3 Total 0.5 0.4 0.8 0.1 -0.2 0.3 Merchandise trade 0.5 0.4 1.3 0.2 -0.2 0.3 26 Table 5 (continued): Export price, import price and export demand shocks to national models from agricultural and trade policy reform by rest-of-world, selected developing countries (j) Thailand (Global results excluding Thailand) Export price impact Export quantity impact Import price impact All goods Agric only All goods Agric only All goods Agric only Paddy rice 7.3 5.7 82.5 118.1 .. .. Wheat .. .. .. .. 3.3 4.0 Other grains 6.4 4.8 30.1 48.7 4.9 4.5 Oil seeds 6.0 4.7 -30.9 -18.4 -6.0 -5.6 Sugar cane and beet .. .. .. .. .. .. Plant-based fibers 6.8 5.2 7.2 13.5 6.4 7.9 Vegetables and fruits 7.2 5.6 5.3 11.9 1.8 1.1 Other crops 7.3 5.8 -33.4 -21.5 1.7 1.6 Cattle sheep etc 6.2 4.6 -17.2 -3.8 3.6 2.8 Other livestock 5.4 3.7 -25.0 -12.2 0.6 1.1 Raw milk .. .. .. .. .. .. Wool .. .. .. .. 5.5 5.3 Beef and sheep meat 4.1 2.2 -91.7 -89.2 10.0 10.1 Other meat products 4.5 2.7 48.9 79.7 1.6 2.5 Vegetable oils and fats 2.6 0.9 5.6 20.1 0.7 1.2 Dairy products 4.4 2.6 70.3 93.1 12.2 12.5 Processed rice 6.6 4.9 48.9 64.4 1.4 0.5 Refined sugar 4.6 2.7 506.3 563.6 .. .. Other food, beverages and tobacco 3.5 1.7 47.6 -17.2 0.9 -1.4 Other primary products 3.3 1.2 -10.5 -5.1 0.5 0.8 Textile and wearing apparel 3.2 1.4 -0.9 -7.6 -0.4 0.5 Other manufacturing 2.9 1.1 -8.1 -6.9 1.3 0.3 Services 3.3 1.2 -13.0 -3.7 -0.2 0.2 Agriculture and food 4.6 3.0 70.3 45.6 1.7 0.9 Agriculture 7.0 5.5 5.9 17.4 1.1 1.6 Processed foods 4.3 2.7 80.0 49.8 2.1 0.5 Other manufacturing 3.0 1.2 -7.4 -7.0 1.1 0.3 Nontradeables 3.3 1.2 -13.0 -3.7 -0.2 0.2 Total 3.3 1.4 1.0 -0.4 1.0 0.4 Merchandise trade 3.3 1.5 3.1 0.1 1.2 0.4 Source: Authors World Bank LINKAGE model simulations