: , , . , . , , , , , . . , , , , , , . . Copyright Clearance Center, Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, USA; : 978 750 8400, : 978 750 4470, www.copyright.com , , : 1818 H Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20433, U.S.A 202 522 2422, e mail: pubrights@worldbank.org : « » 2002 33 65.5 27 27 : . / . . -- : « », 2002. -- 296 . ISBN 5 7777 0167 1 1991 2000 . () . . , , . Transition -- The First Ten Years: Analysis and Lessons for Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union by World Bank. World Bank, 2002. : ISBN 0 8213 5038 2. © 2002 / ISBN 5 7777 0167 1 1818 H Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20433, U.S.A. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xiii . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xvii . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 : . . . . . . . . . 6 : . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 ? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 ? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 « » ? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 ? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 , . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 . . . . . . . 22 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 . . . . . . . .29 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .31 . .35 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38 1. : . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 1 . . . . . . . 49 1. ?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51 vi -- . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60 2. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63 ? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66 -- ?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68 , ?. . . . . . . . . . . . . 70 ? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72 ? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73 2.1. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74 2.2. . . . . . . . . 79 2. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83 3. . . . . . . . . 85 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97 , , . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99 4. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 116 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124 : , . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 128 vii 4.1. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 136 4.2. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 138 5. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145 . . . 149 -- , . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 153 . . . 153 6. . . . . . . . . . . 155 . . . . 155 . . . . 158 , . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163 .... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 164 ... ? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 168 -- . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 169 -- . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 171 , . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 173 7. : .. . . . . . . . . 175 ? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 179 , . . . . . . . . . . . . . 180 : «» . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 181 : . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 185 : , . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 188 viii : . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 189 : « » . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 189 . . . . . . . . . . 190 ? .. 190 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 192 8. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 197 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 198 , . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 202 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 203 , . . . . . . . . . . . . 207 3 . . 209 9. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 211 , ?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 214 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 218 10. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 221 «». . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 225 ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 227 11. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 231 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 234 ? . . 237 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 237 ix « » . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 239 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 242 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 243 12. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 247 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 248 , . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 254 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 255 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 255 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 257 « ». . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 259 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 271 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 1.1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58 2.1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67 3.1 (Business Environment and Enterprise Performance Survey, BEEPS) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87 3.2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92 4.1 ? . . . . . . . . . . . 106 4.2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113 4.3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131 5.1 . . . . . . . . . . . . 147 6.1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 157 x 7.1 : . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 183 1.1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54 1.2 , 1990 1991 1997 1998 . . . . . . 55 1.3 , 1990 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56 1.4 , 1990 ( ) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57 1.5 , 1992 1999 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59 1.6 , 1990 1998 . ( ). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60 1.7 , . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61 2.1 , 1990 1999 .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80 2.2 c , 1990 1999 .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81 4.1 (1998 .) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119 4.1 (1995 1998 .) (%). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 138 7.1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 182 8.1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 200 8.2 , , . . . . . . . . . . . 206 1 «» «» . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 1.1 1990 2001 .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52 1.2 , 1990 2001 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53 xi 2.1 1990 . . . . . . . 71 3.1 , . . . . . . . . 86 3.2 , 1996 1999 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87 4.1 (1999 .) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117 4.2 (1989 1998 .) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 118 4.3 (1989 1998 .) . . . . . . . . . . . . . 118 4.4 (1998 .) . . . . . . . . 121 4.5 (1989 1998 .) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122 4.6 (1990 1998 .) (, 1990 . = 100). . . 126 4.7 (2000 .) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 136 4.2 : . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 139 4.2 10% . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 140 6.1 , 1999 .. . . . . . . . . . 159 6.2 , 1999 .. . . . . . . . . . 160 6.3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 162 6.4 , 1998 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 164 6.5 , 1998 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 165 6.6 , 1997 . . . . . . . . . 166 6.7 , 1998 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 167 6.8 , 1998 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 170 8.1 , 1998 . ( 1997 .) . . . . . . . . . . 204 xii 8.2 , 1998 . ( ). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 208 9.1 . . . . . . 216 10.1 , 1990 1999 .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 223 10.2 , 1989 1999 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 226 10.3 , 1989 1999 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 228 11.1 , 2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 233 11.2 , 1999 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 236 , 1991 2000 . 1996 .: . , , , , , , . , , , . . . , . , , 1990 ., , . , 1990 . , . , 1996 ., . , , xiv , . , , , , . , , , . , , . , , , , , ? . , , , .. , . , , , , . , , , . , , , , , . xv , , . , , , , . , , , , , , , , , , . , . , , : ; , ; , ; , . , , , , , , . , ; , xvi , , , , . , , , , . , , , , . , , : ; , , ; , . -- , . , , , , , . . , , , , , . , . , , : , , , , , , , , , , . , , -- , , . . . , , . : , , . , , , , , , , , , , , , , , . , . , . xviii . 2000 . () , . , , . , , : , , , , . , . , , , . (), (), () 2001 . «, », ( ), . , «World Bank Publications». , . , , , , , , . . , , « » (Balcerowicz, 1995). (), , (), 1. , (), 1998 . 1990 ., 2000 . 6%. 2000 . 63%; 1990 . , , 1990 1999 40%, , 2, , 3 40%. 1998 . , 2,15 , 4. 25 . , 68%, -- 50% -- 40%. 2 , , , , «» , ( 1). 1 . , (. ). , , , , . ( ) , . . 1987 1990 . ãã 1996 1999. ãã ) 0,7 ( 0,6 0,5 0,4 0,3 0,2 0,1 0 : , 2000b. 3 . . , , , , , , , , , . . , (2000b), : ´ , ´ . , , , , . , ( ) () , . . . , , , c 5% , 20% 15% . . · . ( ). . ( , 2000c). · , , , , . , 4 ( 1) . , . · . , , . , , , «» , ( ). , , : , . , , 40 70% . , . . . , , . , , . , , . , . , 5 , . -- . , , , 1990 . 15% 40% . , , , , . , , 1990 ., 2000 . 1990 . , , , : 1997 1999 . , . , , 2000 . 1990 . , , , , , , , . , 1997 ., 1999 ., 2000 . . · , , ? , , , ? 6 · , , , ? , ? · , , « », , ? ? · , ? . : . . . , , (, , ), , . . 7 , . , 2000 . 1990 ., , , : -- 68% , -- 59% -- 49%. . « ». . . , , , . , 5. , , . . , , -- , , ( , 2000b, c). , , , , . , , . , , , , , 1985 . 0,95 1 000 . 0,50 8 1 000 . (IMF and others, 1991). 1992 . , , , 3% (Tarr, 1994). . . · , , , . . · , , . , , , , , , . «» , . , , , , , . , , , , . , , , (1990­1994 .), , 9 , . , , , , . , , , , . , , , , . , . , , , ( « » )6. , , , . , , , , , , , , . , , , , . 10 , , , . , « ». , . : , . , , , . , , « », . -- , -- «» , . , , , , , , . , , , , , . 11 , , . , , . , . . , , . , . , . . , , , . , . . , , , . 12 , . · , , , , . · , , , , , . · , , , , , . , (« », ) . , , , , ( ), , , . · , , , . , , . , 13 , , « » . , , , . , , , , . , , (), 10 . , , , . , , 1999 . (. 3.1). , , , , ( 3). , . , . . , ( , 50 ), 7. , , 14 . 50 , , 55 65% . , , , , 20% , 20 30%. , , . , . . , «» , . , , 40%, , «» . , , « » , , . , . , , . , , , , , . ? . , . , , 100% , 15 17%. 40% , 55%8. , , , , , , . , . ? , , ( 2 100 1999 . 16 050 2000 ., [ , 2001]), , , , , , ? , , . , , : , ? : ? , . , , . , , 16 . , , , , , , . , , . , , . : , . , , , . , , , . ? . , . ? , , , , , 10 . , , . 17 , , , ( , , 1). . ( ) . , , . , , , . , , , . , , , , . /, . . « » ? , , , 18 . , , , ? , , . . · 1990 ( 1998 . 34%). , , . , , . · , , , , , . , , , . · , , , , , , , , 19 , . , , , , , . , . , . , , , , , , . , , , , , , « », « » . ? ( 1978 1995 8%, 200 ), , . , 20 . (, , , ), . , ( ), , , . , 19% , , 90% . , « », ( , ) , , , . , , , , , . , . , . , , 30 40% . 21 , , . , . , . , Fisher and Gelb (1991) , . , , , 1990 . . , , . . , 1991 1997 40 60% , 4% . , . , , , , . , , . , , , , , , 22 , . , , . , , , , . , , « », . , ? , ? , , «» « », . 1 , . · , , , , , . · , , , , J . , . 23 , , .. · (, ) , , . , , U . , , . . , ( , ), . , . , . . R0 . R1 --, 24 . , . , , , , , 1 «» «» + R0 R1 R2 R = ­ : R0 = ; R1 = , ; R2 = , R1 ( ) , , . : . 25 , , . -- -- . , . , , , , , , , . , . «» (R1), , . , R1, . (R2), , , , . , , 26 : · , . · , , , , , . , . , . , , . , , , . « » . , , . , , 27 , . , , . , . , . , « » , . , , . , , . , « », . , , , , , . , , . , , «» , , 28 ( ), «» , , . , , . , , , , . . . , ; , . , , , , . , , , . , -- -- . , , , , , . , . , 29 , . . , . , , , , . , « ». , . , «» «» . , . ? . . , , 30 , « ». , , , , . , , (. Djankov and Murrell, 2000 7 ). . , , , , , . , . , , , , , , (50%) (55 65%). , , (10 20%) (10 20%). , , , , . , . , , , , . 31 , . , , , , . , , . , ( ). , , . . , , , , , . . , , , , , . , . , -- , 32 , , . , «» , , , , . , , « » . , , , . (Johnson and Shleifer, 2001). , , , , . . , , , , , . , 33 . . , , ( ), (EBRD, 1999). . . , . «» ; ; , . , , , . , , , , . . · . · , , , . · , , , , , . 34 , , , . , . , , . , . , , , « » , , , , . , , , . · , , , , . , . · , , , ( ). , 35 . · , . , , , , . , , , . , . , , , , . , , , , . , « », , , 36 . , , , . , . . , , , , , . , , , . , , . , , , (. 1). , . , . , «» . , 37 . . , , , , . . , , , , . , , , , , . , , , , . , , , , , . ( 1) , . , . 38 , , . · , , , , . , , , . · , , , . , . , , , . · , , . , , , , , , : 1) , 39 , , , 2) . · , , , , (, ), , , , « », . -- ; , , , . 1. : , ? , , , , , , , 40 . : ; ; ( , , ); ; , . : · , , ; · , , , , ; · ; · , , . . 41 · , , , , -- , ( ) , . · , , , , . , . , . : · , ; · , . , , , , , . : · ; · ; 42 · ( ) ; · , « ». , , , . . · () . , . · , , , , , , . . · , . : · , ; 43 · , , , , , , , ; · , . , . , , , . , , . · : , . · , ( , ), . . · , , 44 , , , . . , , . · , , , , , , , , , . , , . : · , ; · . , , , , (Johnson, McMillan, and Woodruff, 2000). , . , , . 45 . . · , , , , . , , , . · , . , , , , . , . · . . , . , , , 46 . . 1 , , , , , , , , , , , , . , 1998 . , , , , , , , , , , . 2 «» « » . 3 (. 1.1) . . 4 1993 . (World Bank, 2000a). 5 . , . . ; . 6 Kornai (1986) « » ( « ») , 1980 . 7 , . , 47 , , . 4.1 , . 1995 ., 1998 ., , . « » « » . 8 4.2 , , ( ), , , , . 1 1 ? , . , () (), . , , , , , (. 1.1). , , (. 1.2). , 1. , , 1997 . , , , . , (. 1.1). . 6,5 , . 52 63% ( . Aslund 2001). : 6 . (5 6 ) (35 51%) . , . , . , 80% -- , -- . 1.1 1990­2001 . 120 110 100) 100 =. 90 (1990 80 70 60 50 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 . () , () (). . 2001 . : . 53 1.2 , 1990­2001 . 7,5 5,0 2,5 0,0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 ) 2,5 ( 5,0 7,5 10,0 12,5 15,0 . () , () (). . 2001 . : . , , , , 10 , 2000 . , . ( , ) , , . : 1997 , ; , 1999 , , 1998 . 54 1.1 , 2000 . ( ) (1990 . = 100) a 3,8 22,6 106,5 3 33 110 4 16 81 4 15 109 6 51 61 5 44 67 2 6 112 3 21 144 4 23 82 3 14 105 4 36 87 3 12 99 5 35 85 a 6,5 50,5 62,7 6 60 55 4 63 67 6 35 88 5 78 29 6 41 90 6 50 66 7 63 35 7 40 64 7 50 48 8 48 76 6 18 95 10 59 43 , 1930­1934 . 2 6 .. 3 16 .. 4 27 .. 3 11 .. .. -- . , 1990 ., , . : ; . Maddison (1982). 55 -- , , , . , (. 1.2). , , , 9% . , 40 45% , . 1.2 , 1990­1991 1997­1998 . 1990­1991 13,7 45,1 41,2 1997­1998 13,9 33,0 53,1 1990­1991 27,5 39,7 32,8 1997­1998 18,7 31,2 50,1 : . . 1999 56 (. 1.3). , , , . , . (, , 2). 1.3 , 1990 1990 1994 1999 11 50 68 18 55 80 17 40 60 12 65 80 10 55 75 10 20 50 12 40 60 5 15 20 5 50 70 : , 2000. , , . , 1993 1998 , , , , (. 1.4). 57 1.4 , 1990 ( ) 1993­1998 1992­1993 1998­1999 8,8 35,8 67,5 22,0 62,9 94,1 4,3 55,1 59,0 11,1 67,4 81,5 , 7,3 22,2 65,5 12,9 71,6 75,5 8,7 44,3 71,0 6,9 15,9 59,2 5,7 33,7 70,7 10,4 29,9 69,3 10,8 25,9 71,3 3,2 28,0 29,0 8,6 9,4 34,9 a 14,0 4,2 20,0 3,2 15,3 11,0 a 10,3 2,3 25,9 3,4 43,8 29,6 2,4 24,7 44,0 4,8 6,2 31,3 4,7 59,3 49,4 5,8 18,1 23,3 a. 1995­1998 . : . . , , , . 1996 1999 70 , (. 1.5). , , . , , 75% . , , 58 . 1.5 , 1992­1999 . 1992­1995 1996­1999 . . 21 091 0,5 50 558 3,3 9 399 5,7 6 979 3,8 2 540 0,6 17 096 2,9 4 821 2,9 10 104 4,6 647 3,9 1 050 5,2 8 272 1,0 22 001 2,5 237 4,2 3 222 20,9 2 357 2,7 4 971 6,4 3 965 0,3 8 412 0,7 427 3,5 334 3,0 . . : . 1.1 . , ( , ), . , . : , . 59 , . , (.. ), . -- , -- . «» , . , , ( , ), (, , ). , , . , , . (, ) , « » . , , . , , . . , , 6 60 . , ; , , ( ) , , . . 60 , , ( 1.1). , ( , 2000b). , (. 1.6)2. 1998 , . , , . -- , , 1994 , -- 1998 1991 ( , 2000b). 1.6 , 1990 1998 ( ) , 1990 1998 1,5 5,1 28,2 15,3 16,8 15,6 2,4 1,9 43,8 40,0 47,0 46,4 20,0 17,1 : . 61 1.7 , , 1987­1990 1993­1994 1996­1998 0,23 0,29 0,33 0,23 0,38 0,41 0,21 0,23 0,25 0,24 0,31 0,32 0,23 0,37 0,34 0,28 0,28 0,33 0,23 0,29 0,30 0,22 0,25 0,30 0,36 ­ 0,35 0,19 0,23 0,25 0,24 0,35 0,37 a 0,28 0,36 0,46 0,27 ­ 0,61 0,23 0,28 0,26 0,29 ­ 0,43 0,30 0,33 0,35 0,31 0,55 0,47 0,27 ­ 0,42 0,26 0,48 0,47 0,28 ­ 0,47 0,28 0,36 0,45 0,24 ­ 0,47 ­ . . , . : , 2000b. , . , (. 1.7). , , , , , , 0,21 1987 . 0,25 . , , . . , , 62 . 1 , « » (/ //, 1991) , ( « »). 1990 1,1% (3,3% « »), : . 2 . , , , , , , 2 , , . , , , . 2 -- , , -- . , , , , , . , , -- , . ? : ( , ), ( , ). , , (de Melo, Denizer and Gelb, 1996) , -- , 1. , , , 64 , . . · . , , , . · . , . 1990 70% ( , , ) 30% (, , ). · . ( 1) , 2. , . · . -- , , -- , . , , . , . · . ( 1989 . ) , 1400 9200 . , , , , , . 65 · . , 1987 1990 . , . · . , , . 1990 1800%. · . , . . (David Tarr, 1994). ( 10% ) , . , , . · . (, , ) . , , 1989 (de Melo, Denizer, and Gelb, 1996). · . 1985­1989 ., 1980 . , . , , . 66 · . , , . · . , , , . , . · . , , . . , . , , . 1990 . , 3. 1990 -- , -- ( 2.1). -- , 1992­1994 ., 1992 ., 1991­1994 . -- , , , . ( 3.) 67 2.1 1998 . , , . , , , , , , , 70%. , . , . . 1997 1999 771 493 . 2,6 1997 1 1998 . , . 1998 1999 50% -- 5,8 . 1,3 2,2 . . , , 1998 1999 . 1997 . , . , . , , , . (, ) , . , . . 68 ( 2.1) . , . . , 35% 1997 46% 1998 56% 1999 . 1999 , . , , . , , . -- ? . . , , , : · ; · ; · ; · ; · ; · ; · . , , , , , , . 69 , 4. , , , . , , , , . , , -- (. 2.1). 1998 , -- , , , . 1990 1999 ., , , , , (. 2.1, ). . , , . -- J . , , . (de Melo and Gelb, 1996) : ( 0,4), . 70 . , , . , , , . , . , « » ( , , ; Selowsky and Martin, 1998). . () , . , « », . . , , , ´ , . , ? , , , , , . , , , , . , , , . 71 2.1 1990 1998 1995 1990 1,0 0,9 0,8 0,7 0,6 0,5 0,4 0,3 0,2 0,1 : de Melo, Denizer, and Gelb (1996); EBRD (2000). , ( 2.2). , (1990­1994 .), 10 . 51% 72 1990­1994 ., 41% . , , . , , , . , , « », , , , . , , , . , , , , . ? . , (de Melo and others, 1997). . , , . , , , . . , (Dethier, Ghanem, and Zoli, 1999; de Melo and others, 1997). 3 , 73 . , , ( , . de Melo and others, 1997). ? . ; . -- . , , , -- , -- . , . , , (« »), (, ) . , . 3. . , , 74 . , 5. . . , , 6. , . . 2.1 Aslund, Anders, Peter Boone, and Simon Johnson. 1996. «How to Stabilize: Lessons from Post Communist ountries.» Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 26(1): 217­313. , 1989­1995 . ( ) ( ). Berg, Andrew, Eduardo Borensztein, Ratna Sahay, and Jeromin Zettelmeyer. 1999. «The Evolution of Output in Transition Economies: Explaining the Differences.» IMF Working Paper No. WP/99/73. Interna tional Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C. , , 26 1991 1996 ( ). : · ( , , ). · ( , , ). · ( de Melo and others, 1996), , , 75 , , , , ). · ( , , , ). . , ( ). (), . , , . , , () . , , 13 15 , , ( ). : , ( ); . Campos, Nauro F., and Fabrizio Coricelli. 2000. «Growth in Transi tion: What We Know, What We Don't, and What We Should», Center for conomic Policy Research, London, United Kingdom. : . (c 76 ), . (, ). ( , , ). De Melo, Martha, Cevdet Denizer, and Alan Gelb. 1996. «From Plan to Market: Patterns of Transition». World Bank, Washington, D.C. De Melo, Martha, Cevdet Denizer, Alan Gelb, and Stoyan Tenev. 1997. «Circumstance and Choice: The Role of Initial Conditions and Poli cies in Transition Economies». World Bank, Washington, D.C. , . , : , , . « », . , 12 , ( , , , , , , «» , , , , ). . , . , , . , ( 1992­1995 .) , ( 77 ) , . ( , ), , . , . , « », . De Melo, Martha, and Alan Gelb. 1996. «A Comparative Analysis of Twenty Transition Economies in Europe and Asia». Post Soviet Geography and Economics 37(5): 265­85. « » 26 , . (CLI), , , . , CLI = 0,4. , «» «» , , CLI 0,4 ( CLI ; , CLI ). , «» ( 13 ). (, «» , ), , (.. ) . Fischer, Stanley, Ratna Sahay, and Carlos A. Veight. 1998. «How Far is Eastern Europe from Brussels?» IMF Working Paper No. WP/98/53. International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C. , (, ) . « », . 78 Havrylysyhyn, Oleh, and Ron van Rooden. 1999. «Institutions Matter in Transition, but so Do Policies». Paper presented at the Fifth Dubrovnik Conference on Transition, Dubrovnik, June 1999. , : « » (1994­1997 .), , « », « 1998/99 : » (1998) «Euromoney». de Melo and others (1997) ( ). . ´ ( t bIC/t) ( t t*bIV). Hernandez Cata, Ernesto, 1997. «Growth and Liberalization During the Transition from Plan to Market». IMF Staff Papers 44(4): 405­29. ( Berg and others 1999). . Heybey, Berta, and Peter Murrell. 1997. «The Relationship between Economic Growth and the Speed of Liberalization during Transition». Journal of Policy Reforms 3: 121­137. , ( , , ). , « , ». Popov, Vladimir. 1998. «Will Russia Achieve Fast Economic Growth?» Communist Economies and Economic Transformation 10(4): 421­35. Popov, Vladimir. 1999. «Shock Therapy versus Gradualism: The End of the Debate». Carleton University, Ottawa. 79 Castanheira, Micael, and Vladimir Popov. 1999. «Framework Paper on the Political Economy of Growth in Russia and Central and Eastern European Countries», Global Development Network, World Bank, Wahington, D.C. ( ). , ( ) . (1994­1998 .), (1989­1998 .) (1989­1996 1996­1998 .). : , . ( / ­0,03 + + + /3), , . Selowsky, Marcelo, and Ricardo Martin. 1998. «Policy Performance and Output Growth in the Transition Economies». American Economic Review -- Papers and Proceedings 87(2): 350­53. ´ ( ) (, ). . . 2.2. , , , . 80 , de Melo and others (1997), , Tarr (1994). , « » -- , . A2.1 , «» ( R ) 51% 44% 1995­1999 . A2.1 , 1990­1999 . , 1990 1994 , 1995 1999 0,30 0,18 1,03a 0,24 0,25 0,82a R 0,51 0,44 a 95%. : Martin (2000). A2.2 ( «») -- Selowsky and Martin (1998) -- 1990 . , : 1995­1999 ., . , . 81 A2.2 , 1990­1999 . : 1990­1999 . t (t) 11,01a 4,08 (t ­ 1) 8,92a 2,60 (t ­ 2) 3,32 1,60 (t), 1995­1999b 8,26a 2,02 (t­1),1995­1999b 4,03 0,71 (t­2),1995­1999b 2,18 0,60 11,52a 5,45 0,09 0,38 1990­1994c 1,82a 4,50 R­ ( ) 0,60 (200) 6,89 a 95%. b 1995­1999 . c 1990­1994 . : Martin, 2000. 1 (, ) , . 2 -- , . 3 (Easterly, 2000) , . 0 2,5% 1960­1979 . , , , . 82 4 , (de Melo, Denizer, and Gelb, 1996), 1997 . 1998 1999 , . 5 . . 6 , «» 11 . 6,89, 90% 11,37 ( 1,65 ). , , . 2 3 . . . , , , , . , , . 1992 3% . , , . , , . . , . , , . . , , . 86 , , , , . , , , , (. 3.1). , . (, , 4.2.) , , ( 3.1), , (. 3.2)1. 3.1 , 0 0 0 . , , «» , , , , «» . : . 87 3.2 , 1996­1999 . 15 10 5 0 5 Í î âû å ï ðåäï ðèÿòèÿ Ñòàðû å ï ðåäï ðèÿòèÿ : Hellman, Jones, and Kaufmann (2000) 3.1 (Business Environment and Enterprise Per formance Survey, BEEPS) 1999 . 20 . . , , , , , ( , , ). , 88 , , . , , , ( . Hellmann, Jones, Kaufmann, and Scharker man, 2000, and www./worldbank.org/wbi/governance/datasets.htm). , . 1 , , . 125 25 ( 250 ), ( 550 ). 3 954 , ( ), . ; 50 , 8% 500 . , 27% , 16% . (52%) , (48%), 30% . 50% , . , . , ( ) . , , , . . EBRD (1999). 89 3.1 () (Business Environment and Enterprise Performance Survey, BEEPS), 1999 . 1 866 47,2 2 088 52,8 ( 50 ) 1 944 49,2 (50­500 ) 1 690 42,8 ( 500 ) 318 8,0 2 176 56,5 1 050 27,2 627 16,3 453 11,5 33 0,8 1 191 30,1 343 8,7 16 0,4 2 036 51,5 541 13,7 571 14,5 232 5,9 67 1,7 214 5,4 245 6,2 15 0,4 30 0,8 1 915 48,5 1 220 30,9 704 17,8 1 694 42,8 336 8,5 : Hellman, Jones, Kaufmann, and Schankerman (2000). , , , , (. Ruehl and Vinogradov, 2001). 90 , . -- , , , , . , , . . -- , 1990 -- . , , , , , . , , . , , . . , . , , -- 68%, -- 59%, -- 49%. . , 91 « ». . , . , , . , , . , , , , , ( , , ) «» ( , « », , ). (, Kornai, 1986), , , / ( 3.2), . , , . , , , . , , . . , . 92 , . , . 3.2 , (, ; Johnson, La Porta, Lopez de Silanes, and Shleifer, 2000). . , , . , , , . , . , , , . . , , . (, ). , , , ( , ). , , (. ). , , . , . . , , 93 . , , 1997­1998 ., , , . ? . , . , « » . , . ( ) , , « ». , ( ), . , . , . , , , , , , (Johnson, La Porta, Lopez de Silanes, and Shleifer, 2000). , , , , . . , . « » , . , , , , , (Johnson, La Porta, Lopez de Silanes, and Shleife,r 2000). , 94 ( 3.2) . . , . , 1998 . , (Johnson, Boone, Breach, and Friedman, 2000). . , , . , . , .. , . , (Johnson, Boone, Breach, and Friedman 2000). . , , , , , , . , , , , , , , . , , ? , « » , . 95 . , , , , «» . , , , (Shleifer and Wolfenzon, 2000). , , . . , .. , . . , . . Jensen and Meckling (1976), , . Shleifer and Vishny (1997) , 1976 1996 . , , . , ( ), , . , 96 . , , , . , . , 1990 , 18 24 , . , 1992 , , , , . 1995 , 1996 , , . , , , . , , 30% 60% ( ). , . 1990 1998 1,2 2,8 . . , , 50% . 97 , , . , , . , . , , , , . . . , . , , , , . . 1992 , , 33% . , , . , , 5% 1996 3,5% 1997 . 1994 , , , . 1996 . , , , . . , , . « », , , 98 , « ». , , : « » « » . . . 38% 1992 31% 1998 , 44 39%. , , , . , 57% 1992 , 37% 1998 , . : 45% 1990 41% 1998 . . . . , , , . , . , , . , , 10,2% 1994 5,9% 1998 . , , , 10,9% 16,3%. , , , , 99 , , , , . , , . 2. , , . . , , .. . , , . , , , . , , . . , , . , . . , «» , . ... , , . , , , 100 . , . , . . , , . , . . , « » , , , 1992 , , 2001 17%. , : 1994­2000 4,7%. , « -- », . 19% 2000 -- . . . . 1 «» , 1989 ( ), -- 1991 . 5%, , 5%, 101 , . , 1996­1998 . -- . 2 1995 42% , 49% 60% (Johnson, Kaufmann and Shleifer, 1997). 4 , . , : , , , , , , , . . , , , , . -- , , . , , ( ), , , . , , , , , 104 . . . , . . : . , , , ; , ; , ; , ; . , , . . , . , , . , . . , , , -- , . , 105 . · , . · , -- , , . , , 1996--1998 . , . · , , , , , , . . . -- -- . . · ,, , , . . , . , 106 . , , . · ( ) , , , ( 4.1). 4.1 ? 1978 1995 8% , 200 . , , , ? , ? 1978 . . , . , , -- . , 71% , , . . , , . , , , . , -- 30% , . (2) 25% 1978 . 89 % 1994 . 5% . . , 107 1990 , , . , , , , . , . , , , . , . , , 1990 . 13% 71% . , 11% , , . , , , . , 22% 34% . , , 10% , . . , , . , « » , . «» 1990 . «» , , . , , , 108 ( 4.1) () . , 2 1993 . 68 17%. -- -- , 19% ( ) , , , 90% 1990 . , , , . 1985 . 93% , , 6% , 1% . , , -- , , . . , , , , , . , . , , . , , , , , . , . , , , . 109 , . -- , , -- . -- . , . , . , . , , ( ), . , -- . , . 1970 60 000 . 600, 1965 . , , « » , . , , , . , , , 30­40% . 20 75% . « » . , , . , , 110 ( 4.1) . , , ? 2000 . 1990 . 85%, -- 94%, , . , , , , , , . . , , . , , 20% . , , . , 60% , , 1996 . . 1996­1998 . 4­5% . , , , . -- -- , , (. 4.3). . , . , (50 ) 20%, 40% 111 . , , , , , . , , -- , , , , , , . , , ; , , . , , . . , , , , , . , , , (Carlin and others, 2001). , , 112 , , . . , , , , . -- , , -- . , , «» . , , . . . , . , . , « » , . ; , ( 4.2). 113 4.2 1989 . , 1990 . -- . . . , , , , « ». , , . , , . « » . -- 40 60% . , 1991 1997 , 1,2 ( 571 ). , 140 , 4% . : 1991 2000 19 (43 ). , , , . , . , , -- () ( , ), . 114 ( 4.2) , , 10 . , , , (. . 1 ). , . , , , . , , , . . , 1989­2000 . (1988 . = 100) 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Ãåðì àí èÿ Âî ñò. Ãåðì àí èÿ . . Ñð. ÂÂÏ ÖÞ Á Ïî ëüø à . . : . ? : 115 . . , , , . , , 1/3 . . , , . . 55 65% . , . , (. . ). 1991 . , 1999 . 1/7 . , , , -- , . , , , , . , , , , . 116 ( 4. 2) . ( ) . 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 West Germany . East Germany . : Ruehl and Vinogradov (2001). « » . . 1999 . : 20% -- , 55% -- , 60% -- , , 70% -- (. 4.1). : 55% -- , 60% -- , 65% -- , 80% -- . , , , 117 (. 4.2 4.3). 50 , 1998 . 55 65% , , , -- 10 20% 1. : . 1998 . , , , , , 50%, . . , . , , , , , 10% 20%. 4.1. (1999 .) 90 75 60 45 30 15 0 : (EBRD), 1999 . 118 4.2. (1989­1998 .) 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 : . 4.3. (1989­1998 .) 70 Âåí ãðèÿ 60 ×åø ñêàÿ Ðåñï óáëèê Ï î ëüø à 50 Ëèòâà 40 Ëàòâèÿ 30 Ðî ññèéñêà Ôåäåðàöèÿ 20 Óêðàèí à 10 Ãðóçèÿ Êàçàõñòàí 0 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 : . 119 (. . 4.2 4.3). -- , -- 20% . , , , , 50% . , . (. 4.1). 4.1. (1998 .) (%) () ( ) 37,7 15,9 / / 97,0 48,7 53,5 109,9 88,6 39,6 39,3 99,2 96,1 54,9 63,6 115,8 88,6 15,6 22,4 143,6 91,2 45,5 50,4 110,9 97,4 55,1 55,3 100,4 92,1 45,7 54,4 118,9 56,3 18,6 23,0 123,7 69,2 16,9 30,0 177,5 / -- . . = 100. 50 . : . , , , , , ? 120 . , . , . , , , , . , , , , , , , , ? (. 4.4 4.5). , , ( 40%) , . « » , . . . . , ? , . . , , , , ( 4.2). , , . , , . 121 4.4. (1998 .) 40 000 35 000 30 000 25 000 20 000 15 000 10 000 5 000 0 : Gurostat (1998). -- -- . , . . . , , , , . 122 4.5. (1989­1998 .) 120 60 100 50 80 40 60 30 40 20 20 10 0 0 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 120 60 100 50 80 40 60 30 40 20 20 10 0 0 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 120 70 60 100 50 80 40 60 30 40 20 20 10 0 0 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 123 120 60 100 50 80 40 60 30 40 20 20 10 0 0 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 120 60 100 50 80 40 60 30 40 20 20 10 0 0 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 120 60 100 50 80 40 60 30 40 20 20 10 0 0 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 : . 124 , , , «» , , , . , «» «» . , , , , , . , , , , 40%. . , , (. . 4.4 4.5). . 1991 1998 -- 10 23%, . . , «» -- , . . , , (. 4.6). . · . 125 , , . , . , , . . , . · , , . , , . , , « », -- , , . . , . · , , , -- -- , , . -- , -- «» , . 126 4.6. (1990­1998 .) (: 1990 . = 100) 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 127 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 128 ( 4.6) 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 : . : , , , . ? 129 , , ? . , : · , , , 2; · « », , , , ; · , , . , . . . -- . , . , . 130 , . , . , , , . 1990 . , , . 1998 . 34% , 4%, -- 6%, -- 11%, -- 13%. , . , , , , , , . . , . . , , . , , . , . . 26% -- , . , , , ( 4.3). 131 4.3 , , , . 1999 . 89% 1990 ., , 62% (. ). . 1996 1997 ., 1990 , . (), 25 26 . , . , , , , . , , -- . 2000 , . , , , . , . ? . , . , , , , . 132 ( 4.3) 4.3 , 2000 . (1990 , = 100) 1991­2000 , , 1999 , 1999 . 106 41 39 3,1 99 13 41 109 20 3,5 42 68 88 3,7 32 147 26 3,2 43 83 102 3,5 32 2,8 62 185 24 89 344 2,3 42 30 257 1,6 16 65 163 2,9 19 2,7 66 163 34 43 244 2,5 35 97 182 2,5 32 . = . = . . . . , 1 ( ) 4+ ( ). . . : (2000 .). , , . , 133 , -- .. . , , , . , , . , , . , , , . , . , , , . , , . . , . , . , , , , . , . , (. . ) . 134 ( 4.3) . , . , . , , . , , . , . , . , , -- -- , . , . , , , . . , « », . , , , . , , . , , , 1990 , . , . 135 , , , -- -- . , ? , . , , , , : . -- . , , , . , . . , ´ , , . -- , -- . , . , , -- -- . : , , , (. 4.7). 136 4.7. (2000 .) 60 (%) 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 : , 2000 .; . 4.1. , . . A4.1. , , , 3. A4.1 1995 . , 68% ( ) 1995 . « ». , 98,7% ( ). 30,3% ( ) , , . 137 -- . . . , , , . -- 30,3%. , , , . 2%. , -- , . , , , , . . , , , , , . , , , . . , . . A4.1 1998 ., , «» , 20%. ( 1998 .) , , . (Business Enterprise Environment and Performance Survey) (. 3.1). , 52% ( 24% ), ( ). , , . 138 , . A4.1. (1995 1998 .) (%) 1995 . 1998 . a 68,4 98,7 30,3 30,7 18,8 96,0 98,1 2,1 2,1 1,1 86,1 98,6 12,5 12,7 7,6 81,9 96,4 14,5 15,0 7,8 84,5 99,0 14,5 14,6 9,6 83,2 95,2 12,0 12,6 6,2 75,4 95,6 20,2 21,1 10,9 88,6 98,7 10,1 10,2 4,9 95,8 99,1 3,3 3,3 2,0 92,6 98,4 5,8 5,9 3,4 75,7 97,6 21,9 22,4 14,5 88,3 98,6 10,3 10,4 5,7 , , : Eurostat (1998 .) . 4.2. () . : · , , , ; 139 · , , . , «». , , 4.2. : , , 1,5 SME , Others () 1,0 , 0,5 , 0,0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 . (, %) : . , -- . , . A4.2, . ( 4 -- ) ( -- ), ( , , 1). 4. ( ). 140 , « » A, 60% . , , , ( 50%) ( , A) (, A). . , , , . () () -- , . , , , , . , «» . , , A ? , , A4.2. 10% , 4,0 (%) Ï åðåì åù åí èå òî ëüêî . 3,0 ðàáî ÷åé ñèëû Ï åðåì åù åí èå ðàáî ÷åé ñèëû « 2,0 1,0 » 0,0 0,0 0,5 1,0 (0 = , 1 = ) 141 5. , , ( ). , , , , , . -- , . 10% « » (. ). -- -- , . A4.2 : 10% , () 4% ( , ). , . , , , . -- , 6. ( ) , -- 1,2% «» , . 1 , , , «» , 142 , , (. 4.1). -- 40% -- . 2 , «» , . 7,5% 1996 . 5,6% 1997 . 1995 1996 . 1997 . 3 Caves (1998) , . , . 4 , , . 6 (EBRD, 2000). , 8% , ( 5, 6,23). , w ( ). 5 , , 1, , «» . . vi, vi = ri*ki + wi , ki -- i, wi -- ( ) i, ri -- () i, i = 0 (/ ) i = 1 (/ ). 143 -- « » (0 ; 1 ), 1% : dV/V = w1 -- w0 + k1 ( r1 -- r0). , -- . . * = r1/r0, , . 6 , = 0, . , , , ( ) . 5 , , , , . , . , . , . , . , , , . , , , . , (. 3.1) , ( ), 146 . , . , , , . , , . . · 1997­1998 . 1,3% , «» , « » , . , , . · . 1996 1998 ., , , , . · 1990 « » . · , 1998 . -- , . -- , , -- , , 147 , , . , 1998 . . , , , , , . , , . , , , , , . . , , , . , , , ( 5.1). 5.1 , , , . 2000 . 170 610 . , . , . 148 ( 5.1) , , , , 2000 . 7,1 , 84% . , 2000 ., 158% 358% . . . . , . , , . 1990 . , . , , . , 1998 . , . ( ) , . , , , , , . , . , . . , , 149 . , , . , . , , , , , . . , , . , . , , , , , . «» « » ( ) . 1993 1997 . 4% . ( , , ). , . 150 , , , . , ­ 4­5% . , , 1. , , . , ( ) , , , . 2000 . . , , , , , . , , . . , , . . . . , , 151 . , , . , . , . , , ( , ), . 1990 , , , . , , . , , , . , , (Pinto, Drebentsov, and Morozov, 2000). · . · ­ . · , . · , (, , , ) . 152 · , . · , , , , , , . 1998 . () , , . ( ) . , , 100% . , : , . ­ , , « ». , , . , -- . : , . , . , , . , . , . . 153 -- , «» , , . . . , , , . , . . 2000 . . . . (EBDR, 2000). , , . . , , . (. 3.1) , 30% , 5­9%. 154 , 80% (EBRD, 1999). , , , , ( ), , , , . , ( ), . , . , , , , . 1 , , . 6 , ? , , . , . , , , . , , . (. 3.1) , , ( ), ( , ) , ( , , , , ). , , . -- 156 , , -- . ( ) , , , , , (Hellman, Jones, and Kaufmann, 2000). , . , , , 5,4% , 2,8% (World Bank, 2000a). , , . : 37% , . 16%. , . , , , . , , , . . , 1996 ., , , , 25 70 . 30 , , . , 157 , , , . , , , 78 , 68 . 2 000 . , ( 6.1) , , . . , , . 6.1 , . , . , , . , . , . . · . · . · . 158 ( 6.1) , , . . ( ) , , . . , , , . , , . . · , . · . · , . · . · , . · . · . : . . 159 (. 6.1). 30% , , . 70%. 6.1 , 1999 . 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 : , 2000. , , : ; , ; (, , , , , ), , . (. 6.2), , , , (. 6.3). 160 6.2 , 1999 . ( , , ) Ó÷åòì í åí èÿ ï ðåäï ðèÿòèé Ãëàñí î ñòü 100 90 80 70 60 50 . , (. 3.1). « » : « , , , , ?». «» , (), : « , , , ?» «, , , , ». : . 161 , 90% 13 , , , , . 80% 13 , , , , , . , (, , ), ( ´) (. . 6.3). , , , 90% , . , 90 % , . , 90% , . . , -- . , , , , 40% 1. , , . , , 162 6.3 ( , , , ) Í(à() åñï ðàâåäëèâàÿ Ñëàáî î áåñï å÷èâàþ ù àÿâûï î ëí åí èå ñóäåáí ûõ ) () Äî ðî ãî ñòî ÿù àÿ(á) () 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 . , (. 3.1): «, , ?» : ; / ; ; ; /; . : «, , , , ». «» () , , / . «» () , . « » () , / . : . 163 , , , , , . , , , . , , , , . , , . . , , , (. 6.4). , , , , , (.6.5). , , , 1998 . , 2. 164 6.4 , 1998 . 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 Ëèí èÿ ñî î òâåòñòâóþ ù åãî ì èðî âî ãî óðî âí ÿ ÖÅÁ ÑÍ Ã Þ ÂÅ . . = ; = ; = . : Eichengreen and Ruehl, 2000. ... , , , . , (. 6.6). 1997 . , , , . , , , 165 6.5 , 1998 . 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 10 Ëèí èÿ ñî î òâåòñòâóþ ù åãî ì èðî âî ãî óðî âí ÿ ÖÅÁ ÑÍ Ã Þ Â . . = ; = ; = . : Eichengreen and Ruehl, 2000. , 7,8% 1996 . 5,6% 1997 . , , , , . , ( ) . -- -- , , (. 6.7). 166 6.6 , 1997 . 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 Ëèí èÿ ñî î òâåòñòâóþ ù åãî ì èðî âî ãî óðî âí ÿ ÖÅÁ ÑÍ Ã Þ . . = ; = ; = . : Eichengreen and Ruehl, 2000. , , , , , (. 6.4), , , . , . , , . , ( 60% , . 6.4). 167 . , , ( 25% ), . ? . -- . , . . 6.7 , 1998 . 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 Ëèí èÿ ñî î òâåòñòâóþ ù åãî ì èðî âî ãî óðî âí ÿ ÖÅÁ ÑÍ Ã Þ ÂÅ : . = ; = ; = . : Eichengreen and Ruehl, 2000. 168 , , . , . . , . ... ? , . , , . . , , . , . , , , . , . . , , . , 169 , . , , . , , , (Levine and Zeroos, 1998). , , . , «», , , . , , , . , , , , . -- (), . 1991 2000 115 . 800 . -- 2 000 . , , , 1991 2000 ., 300 1 000 . 170 « » ; (, 2000, 4). . , 2 (Selowsky and Martin, 1998). , , , , . , . 6.8. 6.8 , 1998 . ( ) 1 800 1 600 1 400 ) 1 200 1 000 ( 800 600 400 200 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 ( ) : , 2000; 1998 . 171 , . , 1998 . , , . , , . , . , . 1998 . , . -- . , , , , , , . , , . . , . . 1995 . 60% , 172 40 50% 30 40% , , . , , 5 7% , 16% . , . , 0,8% . ( .) , . , , , . , . , , , . , . . . . . ( , , , ). . 173 , . -- . , , . , ( ) , , , . . , , . , . , , , , , , . , , . , , , , , , . . , . 174 . . , , . , , . , , , , . , , , . . , . . 1 , : ; , . . Johnson, McMillan, and Woodruff (2000). 2 , , , ( ) . , ( ) ( ). 7 : , , . , , « », , , , , . . , , . ? , 30 , (Djankov and Murrell, 2000). · ( , , ) . · , (.. ) . , , . , . 176 , ; , , . , . . , . , , , , . , , . , , . , . , . , . , , , . 20 30% , . . , 177 , , , , ( ) . . . , , . , . , , , , , , . , , , . -- , , , , -- . ? , . , «» , , . , , , . , , . , , , . , , ? , . , , . , 178 . , «» , . , . , , , . , , . . , : , . , , , , ( ) . . ? ? ? , . , (, , ) , , «» ? ? 179 (. 3.2) , , . ? , . , , , , . . , , , , . , . . , . . . , , , , 180 . . , , . . . , , . , , , . , , 1. , 1980 , . . , , . , . . . 1990 . , ? , 181 , , . , , , , , « ». . , . . , , , , , , . (. . 7.1). : «» ( 25 . ), « » . 89 , . . , 51% . , 66% . , , . , 182 7.1 . . . . . . . . . . . . , . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . : . 183 . , , . , . , , , . , (. 7.1). 7.1 : , 1990 , . , , , . , , , , , . , , , , , ? ? , , 1992 : , . . , , . 184 ( 7.1) , -- .. «» -- -- . , , ( ), , , ( ) . : , , , . , . , , . , , , . : -- , -- ? , ? , 1990 . 1988 . «» , 1987 . , , -- . 1988 . ( ) . , , . , . , , 185 , , , , . , , , . , , «» ( ) , . , , , . , , , . «» , . , , . , , , . . : -- , (World Bank, 1999). , «» 186 . , , . , , . , . . , . . . , , . , ( ), ( ). «», , . , , . . , , , . , , , . , . , , , . , 187 . , , . , , . . -- (. 3.2). , , , , , . . , , , , , , , : « -- ». , ( ), , ( ), , , 1990 . , , . , , . 188 : , , , . , , , . . , , , . . , , . . , ( ). , -- , 1990 . 1990 , . , «» . 1990 . 1990 189 , , . : 1990 . , , , . , 1000 , : « ». , , , 1990 , . , , , , «» . , , . : « » , . ( ) . 190 ( , ) . . , « » , , ( ), , . , (). . , , . , , 39% . , , , . , . : , , . ? , , , . , , . : ? ? , 191 , , ? , , -- -- . , , . , 4.1 , , , . , , . , , . , , , (. 7.1). , ? , -- , -- , ? , , ? (. 4.3) . . , , . , , , , 192 , ? , , , . , , , . -- -- . , , , , . , . . , , . , . . · . · , ( , , 50 ), . · . , , 193 . , , « », , . , . · , ; ; , , , , . , , , . . . , . · , . · , . · , ( 194 , ) , , , . . , , -- , , -- , , . ( ) . . , , , ( ) , . . , , . 30% , , . , , , , , , , , , . , . , , , 195 , . , . , , , . . , , , ( ), . , -- , . . 1 ­ , , 30% . 1990 . , : , . 2000 . (. EBRD, 2000). 8 ? , , , , . ( , ), , . , , , , , , . , , , . , , . , , . . 45%, , , c , . , 198 , , . 20 25% , 30%. , . , , . , , 10% . , , 13% , , . , . , , , , , , . . , , . . , 199 , , . , . , , , . , (. 8.1). , . . , . ( ) ( ), ( ) ( ). , . ( . 120 250% .) . , . . , . , , , , , . 200 8.1 ­ ( , , , , ) ­ ­ (, , ( , , , ) ; , ) ­ ­ ­ (, , , , , ) ­ ­ ( ) ­ : . 201 . , , , 6% ,,,, 1,9% . , -- , , , , . , , , . . , . , . . . , . , , , , , . . , , . , . , . , . 202 , , , . , . , . , , . , , . , , , . (, ) , . , ; , , . , , , , . , , , , . 203 . , . , ( , ) , . , . . . ( ). , , , , , . ., , , . . , , , . , , ( , 2000b). 204 2% 8 % . ­ , 10 , 5% . . , -- , . (. 8.1). 8.1 , 1998 . 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 : . 205 , ( , 2000b). , . , . . 43% ( ) 27% . , , . , . , , . . , . , , . , , , , . . , , , , . , ´ , , , ´ , . , ( ), . 206 , , . 1989 1996 25% ( , 1999b). 25% (Klugman, 1999). , , , (. 8.2). , . . , . , . , . 30 50% , 10 . , , . : , . . 8.2 , , , 1990 1997 . 1990 1997 11,7 8,7 10,5 9,9 11,8 10,5 14,0 11,9 14,0 13,4 : UNISEF­ICDC TransMONEE, 1999. 207 , . , / . . , , , , . . , . . , . . 1997 41% , 11% ( , 2000b). 37% ; , , . . , , (. 8.2). , . , , , : . , , , , -- . 208 8.2 , 1998 . ( ) a a a a a a b a c 0 2 4 6 8 10 : -- World Develop ment Indicators. a 1997 . b 1996 . 1999 . 3 9 , ? , ? ? 3 . , 2, . , , . , . «» -- , , . , , .. , , , . 212 , , , , , . , « » ? , , ? , , , , ? , . , , -- , . , « », «» (Przeworski, 1991). , , . , , , . , , « ». (Hellman, 1998). . 213 , , . , , . , , , , , , . . , , , . , «» , , , . , , . , , , , . (« »), , , . , , , . , , , . 214 . -- «» , (Hellman, Jones and Kaufmann, 2000; World Bank 2000). , ? « » «» . 3 . · . , . , (, ), . · . , , , . . , . · . , , . , . . . , , , , 215 . , , , . . 9.1 . , , , . J : , , , , , , . , , U : , , , , . , «» . , , . , , . , . , . , -- -- . 216 , , . . 9.1 + 0 R0 R1 R2 R = ­ . R0 = ; R1 = , ; R2 = , R1 ( ), , , . : . , . (R0), . R1, 217 . , , , . , , , , R2. , , , , R1. , «» , . «» , , . «» , . : , «» . , , . , R1, . -- -- , , , 218 . , R2, R1 , . , «» , , . , . , , . -- -- , , , . , . , «» «» , , . · . · « » , , . 219 , . , «» ? , , . , , . ; , . , , , . ; , , . « » , «» . , , « » . , , . , 220 « » , , , (de Melo and oth ers, 1997). , «» «» , . 10 , , . , , «» , , -- , -- , . . · . . . · «» . «» . « », , . · . «» , . «» . , 222 . · . , , «» , . . « », «». « » ( ) (. 10.1). , . · , , . , , , , , , . · , , . , , . , , , , , , , . . «» , , , , . 223 10.1 , 1990 1999 . 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 . 1 ( ) 7 ( ), « » 1990 1999 . : : 2,0 2,5; : >2,5; : >5,0. : Freedom House. · . , , . , , . 224 · , , «» 1. . , , . «» , . , . , , , , 2. , . . . , . , , . , . . , . , , , . 225 «». . . «» , . , , . , « » . , ( ) , «», , . «», , 1989 . , , ( . Frye and Hellman, 2001; . . 10.2). . , . , . , . , . , . , , , , , (Alesina and Rosenthal, 1995; Roubini and Sachs, 1989). 226 10.2 , 1989 1999 . 4,0 3,5 3,0 2,5 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 0,0 : 1999 . 0 4, : 0 = ; 1 = ; 2 = ; 3 = ; 4 = . : Frye and Hellman (2001). , , (. . 10.2). . , , 227 , , . , -- , , . . , , . , , , , . . . . «», , (. 10.3). , , , , , , . , -- -- . . . , , , , , . , , . . 228 10.3 , 1989 1999 . 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 . , -- -- . : Frye and Hellman (2001). 229 1 . 2 , , . , . . , . 11 , , , 2. -- , , , . , . , , , . , . , , , , . 232 , , . , (, 2000), 1 ( ) 4,3 (, ). , (. 11.1). , . , , . , , ( . Haggard and Webb, 1993). , , , . , , , « » , . , . , , , . . , (, ) . , 233 , , . 11.1 , 2000 4,00 1,20 3,50 1,00 3,00 0,80 2,50 0,60 2,00 0,40 1,50 0,20 1,00 0,00 . , (,2000), 1 ( ) 4,3 (, ). . , , . : (2000). , , . , , 234 , (Przeworski, 1991). . , « » . , , , , -- . . ( ) , , (. . 11.1). , , . , , , . , , . , , , , , , . 235 , . , , , , -- , . . «» , . ( , .. .) , . (. 3.1) , , (. . 11.2; 3)1. . . , , . , . , . , -- , , , 236 , , . , (Hellman, Jones, and Kaufmann, 2000). 11.2 , 1999 . 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 . . , -- , , , , -- . , . , , . 1999 . : Hellman, Jones, and Kaufmann, 2000; World Bank, 2000a. 237 ? , . , . , , , , . , . , , . ? , , « », , : . , « » , , , , . -- , -- , , . 238 , . (, , ), . , . . « », , , , « » , . , , « » . « » , . , . , . , . ­ , , , . « » , . , . . 239 . , , , . « » , , , «», . , , (Orenstein, 2001). « » ( ) -- , , . , ( , ). , , , . «» ? , . . , , , , . , . 240 , , . , , . . , , . ( 1991 ), , , , . , . . , , . , . , , . , , , , . , . , . ( ). . . 241 . , , «» , . , «» , , , . «» . . . , . , , . , (, 1999). , , . , . «», , , . , . , , . 242 . : , . , , , . , , . , . -- ( ) , . , , . , . , . , -- . 243 , , . , . , , . , . . , . , . , , , , «» . , , , . . , . ? , , , . . , , 244 , -- , . , , , « » . , . , , , , , , , -- , , . . , . , . , . . . . , , , . « » , . , , . 245 «» , . , «» , . , , , «» , . 1 Hellman, Jones, and Kaufmann (2000). , , , , , . 12 , . , , , , (. . 9.1). , , , . , , . , , , , , , . , , , , . , , , , . , . , 248 . , , , . . , , . , , . , , . . , , . , , . , , , , , . . . 249 , , , . , , . , , . , , . , « », , , , , (Gaddy and Ickes, 1999.). , . . , , , ; . , , . . , . . , , , . . 250 , . , . . , , , , , , , , , . . , . . , . , . . , . . , , . , , , . , . 251 . , . , « » , , , . . , , . , . (. 3.1) , , , . 75% , , 60% -- . 20% 10% , ( , 2000). , . , , , , . , , . , 252 . , , . . , , -- , . , , . . , . , , . , . , . . , , , . . 253 . , ( ), . , . , , , . , , , , . , , , , , , . . , , , , . . «» , , , , . , . , 254 , , . , , , . , , , , . , . , , , , : , . , . , . , , , . 255 , , , , , . , , . . , , . , . « » ( ), , , , . , , , (Alesina, Roubini and Cohen, 1997). , 256 . , ( ), , . . , . , . , . , , . , . , , . , , . , , . . , . , . , , . 257 , , , , . , , , , , . , . , , . , . . , , , , . . , , . « », , , . , , , , , 258 . . . , . . . , . (Fernandez and Rodrik, 1991). , « » . . , . , . « », (Albert Hirschman, 1963, . 225), , . -- . 259 « » . , . . : Åslund, Anders. 1991. Gorbachev's Struggle for Economic Reform, 2nd ed. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press. Easterly, William, and Stanley Fischer. 1995. «The Soviet Economic Decline.» World Bank Economic Review 9(3): 341­71. Ericson, Richard. 1991. «The Classical Soviet Type Economy: Nature of the System and Implications for Reform.» Journal of Economic Perspec tives 5(4): 11­27. Fischer, Stanley, and Alan Gelb. 1991. «The Process of Socialist Economic Transformation.» Journal of Economic Perspectives 5(4): 91­105. Garton Ash, Timothy. 1983. The Polish Revolution: Solidarity 1980­82. London: Jonathan Cape. _____. 1990. We the People: The Revolution of '89 Witnessed in Warsaw, Budapest, Berlin & Prague. Cambridge, MA: Granta Books. IMF (International Monetary Fund), World Bank, OECD (Organisation for Economic Co operation and Development), and EBRD (European Bank for Reconstruction and Development). 1991. A Study of the Soviet Economy. vol. 3. Washington, D.C. Kornai, János. 1992. The Socialist System: The Political Economy of Commu nism. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. Murrell, Peter, and Mancur Olson. 1991. «The Devolution of Centrally Planned Economies.» Journal of Comparative Economics 15(2): 239­65. 260 Blanchard, Olivier, and Michael Kremer. 1997. «Disorganization.» Quar terly Journal of Economics 112(4): 1091­1127. Calvo, Guillermo, and Fabrizio Coricelli. 1993. «Output Collapse in Eastern Europe: The Role of Credit.» International Monetary Fund Staff Papers 40(1): 32­52. Ericson, Richard E. 1999. «The Structural Barrier to Transition Hidden in Input Output Tables of Centrally Planned Economies.» Economic Systems 23(3): 199­224. Gomulka, Stanislaw. 1998. «Output: Causes of the Decline and Recovery.» Working Papers Series No. 8, Center for Social and Economic Research, Central European University, Warsaw, Poland. Kornai, János. 1993. «Transformational Recession: A General Phenomenon Examined through the Example of Hungary's Development.» Economie Applique´e 46(2): 181­227. Rodrick, Dani. 1992. «Making Sense of the Soviet Trade Shock in Eastern Europe: A Framework and Some Estimates.» In Mario Blejer, Guillermo A. Calvo, Fabrizio Coricelli, and Alan H. Gelb, eds., Eastern Europe in Transition: From Recession to Growth? World Bank Discus sion Paper No. 196, World Bank, Washington, D.C. Roland, Gerard, and Thierry Verdier. 1999. «Transition and the Output Fall.» Economics of Transition 7(1): 1­28. Bokros, Lajos. 2000. «Visegrad Twins' Diverging Path to Relative Prosperity. Comparing the Transition Experience of the Czech Republic and Hun gary.» Conference at the Czech National Bank, Prague. September. de Melo, Martha, and Alan Gelb. 1996. «A Comparative Analysis of Twenty Transition Economies in Europe and Asia.» Post Soviet Geography and Economics 37(5): 265­85. de Melo, Martha, Cevdet Denizer, and Alan Gelb. 1996. «From Plan to Market: Patterns of Transition.» World Bank Economic Review 10(3): 397­424. de Melo, Martha, Cevdet Denizer, Alan Gelb, and Stoyan Tenev. 2001. «Cir cumstances and Choice: The Role of Initial Conditions and Policies in Transition Economies.» World Bank Economic Review 15(1): 1­31. 261 EBRD (European Bank for Reconstruction and Development). Various years. Transition Report. London. IMF (International Monetary Fund). 2000. World Economic Outlook 2000: Focus on Transition Economies. Washington, D.C. World Bank. 1996. World Development Report 1996: From Plan to Market. Washington, D.C. Åslund, Anders. 1995. How Russia Became a Market Economy. Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution. Blanchard, Olivier. 1997. The Economics of Transition in Eastern Europe. Oxford, England: Clarendon Press. Blanchard, Olivier, Rudiger Dornbusch, Paul Krugman, Richard Layard, and Lawrence Summers. 1991. Reform in Eastern Europe. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. Clague, Christopher, and Gordon C. Rausser, eds. 1992. The Emergence of Market Economies in Eastern Europe. Cambridge, MA: Blackwell Pub lishers. Coricelli, Fabrizio. 1998. Macroeconomic Policies and the Development of Markets in Transition Economies. Budapest: Central European Uni versity Press. Dabrowski, Marek, Stanislaw Gomulka, and Jacek Rostowski. 2000. «Whence Reform? A Critique of the Stiglitz Perspective.» Centre for Social and Economic Research, Warsaw ( ). Klaus, Vaclav. 1997. Renaissance: The Rebirth of Liberty in the Heart of Europe. Washington, D.C.: Cato Institute. Kornai, János. 1990. The Road to a Free Economy. Shifting from a Socialist System: The Example of Hungary. New York: W. W. Norton. _____. Forthcoming. «Ten Years After `The Road to a Free Economy,' The Author Self Evaluation.» In Boris Pleskovic and Nicholas Stern, eds., Annual World Bank Conference on Development Economics. Wash ington, D.C.: World Bank. McMillan, John, and Barry Naughton. 1992. «How to Reform a Planned Economy: Lessons from China.» Oxford Review of Economic Policy 8(1): 130­43. 262 Poznanski, Kazimierz Z., ed. 1993. Stabilization and Privatization in Poland. Boston, MA: Kluwer Academic Publishers. Qian, Yuan, Gerard Roland, and Chenggang Xu. 1999. «Why is China Dif ferent From Eastern Europe: Perspectives from Organization The ory.» European Economic Review 43(4­6): 1085­94. Sachs, Jeffrey. 1996. «The Transition at Mid Decade.» American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings 86(2): 128­33. Stiglitz, Joseph E. 1999. «Whither Reform? Ten Years of the Transition.» Keynote address, World Bank Annual Bank Conference on Develop ment Economics, Washington, D.C. Aghion, Philippe, and Oliver Blanchard. 1994. «On the Speed of Transition in Central Europe.» In Stanley Fischer and J. Rotemberg, eds., National Bureau of Economic Research Macroeconomic Annual 1994. Cam bridge, MA: MIT Press. Åslund, Anders, Peter Boone, and Simon Johnson. 1996. «How to Stabilize: Lessons From Post Communist Countries.» Brookings Papers on Eco nomic Activity 26(1): 217­313. Dewatripont, Mathias, and Gerard Roland. 1992a. «Economic Reform and Dynamic Political Constraints.» Review of Economic Studies 59(4): 703­30. _____. 1992b. «The Virtues of Gradualism and Legitimacy in the Transition to a Market Economy.» Economic Journal 102(411): 291­300. _____. 1995. «The Design of Reform Packages under Uncertainty.» Ameri can Economic Review 85(5): 1207­23. Fischer, Stanley, Ratna Sahay, and Carlos A. Vegh. 1996a. «Stabilization and Growth in Transition Economies: The Early Experience.» Journal of Economic Perspectives 10(2): 45­66. _____. 1996b. «Economies in Transition: The Beginnings of Growth.» American Economic Review 86(2): 229­33. Kornai, János. 1990. The Road to a Free Economy. Shifting from a Socialist System: The Example of Hungary. New York, NY: Norton. Lipton, David, and Jeffrey D. Sachs. 1990. «Creating a Market in Eastern Europe: The Case of Poland.» Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 20(1): 75­147. 263 McKinnon, Ronald. 1992. The Order of Economic Liberalization: Financial Control in the Transition to a Market Economy. Baltimore, MD: John Hopkins University Press. Murphy, Kevin M., Andrei Shleifer, and Robert W. Vishny. 1992. «The Tran sition to a Market Economy: Pitfalls of Partial Reform.» Quarterly Journal of Economics 107(3): 889­906. Murrell, Peter. 1992a. «Conservative Political Philosophy and the Strategy of Economic Transition.» East European Politics and Societies 6(1): 3­16. _____. 1992b. «Evolutionary and Radical Approaches to Economic Reform.» Economics of Planning 25(1): 79­95. Sachs, Jeffrey. 1993. Poland's Jump to the Market Economy. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. _____. 1994. «Life in the Economic Emergency Room.» In John Williamson, ed., The Political Economy of Policy Reform. Washington, D.C.: Institute for International Economics. Aghion, Philippe, and Olivier Blanchard. 1998. «On Privatization Methods in Eastern Europe and their Implications.» Economics of Transi tion 6 (1): 87­99. Amsden, Alice, Jacek Kochanowicz, and Lance Taylor. 1994. The Market Meets Its Match: Restructuring the Economies of Eastern Europe. Cam bridge, MA: Harvard University Press. Balcerowicz, Leszek, Cheryl Gray, and Iraj Hoshi, eds. 1998. Enterprise Exit Processes in Transition Economies. Budapest: Central European Uni versity Press. Black, Bernard S., Reinier Kraakman, and Anna Tarassova. 2000. «Russian Privatization and Corporate Governance.» Stanford Law Review 52(6): 1731­808. Blasi, Joseph R., Maya Kroumova, and Douglas Kruse. 1997. Kremlin Capi talism: The Privatization of The Russian Economy. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press. Boycko, Maxim, Andrei Shleifer, and Robert Vishny. 1995. Privatizing Rus sia. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. _____. 1996. «A Theory of Privatization.» Economic Journal 106(435): 309­19. 264 Djankov, Simeon. 1999. «The Restructuring of Insider Dominated Firms.» Economics of Transition 7(2): 467­79. Earle, John S., Roman Frydman, and Andrzej Rapaczynski, eds. 1993. Priva tization in the Transition to a Market Economy. Budapest: Central European University Press. Frydman, Roman, Cheryl W. Gray, and Andrzej Rapacszynski, eds. 1996. Corporate Governance in Central Europe and Russia, vols. 1­2. Budapest: Central European University Press. Frydman, Roman, and others. 1993a. The Privatization Process in Central Europe. Budapest: Central European University Press. _____. 1993b. The Privatization Process in Russia, Ukraine, and the Baltic States. Budapest: Central European University Press. Lipton, David, and Jeffrey D. Sachs. 1990. «Privatization in Eastern Europe: The Case of Poland.» Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 20(2): 293­341. Nellis, John. 1999. «Time to Rethink Privatization in Transition Economies?» Finance and Development 36(2): 16­19. Roland. Gerard. 1994. «On the Speed and Sequencing of Privatization and Restructuring.» Economic Journal 104(426): 1158­1168. Roland, Gerard, and Thierry Verdier. 1994. «Privatization in Eastern Europe: Irreversibility and Critical Mass Effects.» Journal of Public Economics 54(2): 161­83. Stark, David, and Laszlo Bruszt. 1998. Postsocialist Pathways: Transforming Politics and Property in East Central Europe. Cambridge, MA: Cam bridge University Press. Blasi, Joseph, and Andrei Shleifer. 1996. «Corporate Governance in Russia: An Initial Look.» In Roman Frydman, Cheryl W. Gray, and Andrzej Rapacszynski, eds., Coporate Governance in Central Europe and Rus sia, vol. 2. Budapest: Central European University Press. Brown, David, and John Earle. 2000. «Privatization and Enterprise Restruc turing in Russia: New Evidence from Panel Data on Industrial Enter prises.» Working Paper, Russian European Centre For Economic Pol icy, Moscow. Djankov, Simeon, and Peter Murrell. 2000. The Determinants of Enterprise Restructuring in Transition: An Assessment of the Evidence. Washing ton, D.C.: World Bank. 265 Earle, John, and Saul Estrin. 1998. «Privatization, Competition, and Budget Constraints: Disciplining Enterprises in Russia.» Working Paper No. 128, Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics, Stockholm. Frydman, Roman, Cheryl W. Gray, Marek Hessel, and Andrzej Rapaczynski. 1997. «Private Ownership and Corporate Performance: Evidence from Transition Economies.» EBRD Working Paper No. 26, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, London. _____. 1999. «When Does Privatization Work? The Impact of Private Own ership on Corporate Performance in the Transition Economies.» Quarterly Journal of Economics 114(4): 1153­1192. Lieberman, Ira W., Stilpon S. Nestor, and Raj M. Desai, eds. 1997. Between State and Market: Mass Privatization in Transition Economies. Wash ington D.C.: The World Bank and the OECD (Organisation for Eco nomic Co operation and Development). Megginson, William E., and Jeffry M. Netter. 2001. «From State to Market: A Survey of Empirical Studies on Privatization.» Journal of Economic Literature 39(2): 321­89. , Commander, Simon, and Christian Mumssen. 1998. «Understanding Barter in Russia,» EBRD Working Paper No. 37, European Bank for Recon struction and Development, London. Gaddy, Clifford, and Barry Ickes. 1999. Russia's Virtual Economy. Washing ton, D.C.: Brookings Institution. Ivanova, Nadezhda, and Charles Wyplosz. 1999. «Arrears: The Tide that is Drowning Russia.» Working Paper, Russian European Centre for Eco nomic Policy, Moscow. Johnson, Simon, Daniel Kaufmann, John McMillan, and Christopher Woodruff. 2000. «Why Do Firms Hide? Bribes and Unofficial Activity After Communism.» Journal of Public Economics 76(3): 495­520. McKinnon. Ronald I. 1991. The Order of Economic Liberalization: Financial Control in the Transition to a Market Economy. Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press. Tanzi, Vito, ed. 1992. Fiscal Policies in Economies in Transition. Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund. Woodruff, David. 1999. Money Unmade: Barter and the Fate of Russian Capitalism. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press. 266 Commander, Simon, and Fabrizio Coricelli, eds. 1995. Unemployment, Restructuring, and the Labor Market in East Europe and Russia. Wash ington, D.C.: World Bank. Cook, Linda, Mitchell Orenstein, and Marilyn Rueschemeyer, eds. 1999. Left Parties and Social Policy in Postcommunist Europe. Boulder, CO: Westview Press. Graham, Carol. 1995. «The Politics of Safety Nets.» In Larry Diamond and Marc F. Plattner, eds., Economic Reform and Democracy. Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press. Kornai, János. 1997. «Reform and the Welfare Sector in the Post Socialist Countries: A Normative Approach.» In Joan Nelson, Charles Tilly, and Lee Walker, eds., Transforming Post Communist Political Economies. Washing ton, D.C.: National Academy Press. Kramer, Mark. 1997. «Social Protection Policies and Safety Nets in East Central Europe: Dilemmas of the Post Communist Transformation.» In Ethan Kapstein and Michael Mandelbaum, eds., Sustaining the Transition: The Social Safety Net in Postcommunist Europe. New York, NY: Council on Foreign Relations. Milanovic, Branko. 1998. Income, Inequality, and Poverty during the Transi tion from Planned to Market Economy. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. World Bank. 2000. Making Transition Work for Everyone: Poverty and Inequality in Europe and Central Asia. Washington, D.C. Begg, Iain. 1999. «EU Investment Grants Review.» World Bank Technical Paper No. 435, World Bank, Washington, D.C. Drulák, Petr, ed. 2001. National and European Identities in EU Enlargement: Views from Central and Eastern Europe. Prague: Institute of Interna tional Relations. European Commission and the World Bank. 1998. European Union Acces sion: The Challenges for Public Liability Management in Central Europe. Washington, D.C. _____. 2000. European Union Accession: Opportunities and Risks in Central European Finances. Washington, D.C. Funck, Bernard, and Lodovico Pizzati, eds. 2001. Labor, Employment, and Social Policies in the EU Enlargement Process. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. 267 Garibaldi, Pietro, Mattia Makovec, and Gabriella Stoyanova. 2001. «From Transition to EU Accession: The Bulgarian Labor Market during the 1990s.» World Bank Technical Paper No. 494, World Bank, Washing ton, D.C. Kaminski, Bartlomiej. 1999a. «Hungary: Foreign Trade Issues in the Con text of Accession to the EU.» World Bank Technical Paper No. 441, World Bank, Washington, D.C. _____. 1999b. «The Role of Foreign Direct Investment and Trade Policies in Poland's Accession to the European Union.» World Bank Technical Paper No. 442, World Bank, Washington, D.C. Nabli, Mustapha. 1999. «Financial Integration, Vulnerabilities to Crisis, and EU Accession in Five Central European Countries.» World Bank Tech nical Paper No. 439, World Bank, Washington, D.C. Nunberg, Barbara. 2000. «Ready for Europe: Public Administration Reform and European Union Accession in Central and Eastern Europe.» World Bank Technical Paper No. 466, World Bank, Washington, D.C. Petkova, Ivanka, Elitsa Markova, Irena Mladenova, and Ruslan Stefanova, eds. 2000. Regional Cooperation in Central and Eastern Europe. Sofia: Economic Policy Institute. Tang, Helena, ed. 2000. Winners and Losers of EU Integration: Policy Issues for Central and Eastern Europe. Washington, D.C.: Bertelsmann Foundation and the World Bank. Ulgenerk, Esen, and Leila Zlaoui. 2000. «From Transition to Accession: Developing Stable and Competitive Financial Markets in Bulgaria.» World Bank Technical Paper No. 473, World Bank, Washington, D.C. World Bank. 1997. «Poland--Reform and Growth on the Road to the EU.» Country study, Washington, D.C. _____. 1998. «Slovak Republic--A Strategy for Growth and European Inte gration.» Country study, Washington, D.C. _____. 1999a. «Slovenia--Economic Transformation and EU Accession.» Country study, Washington, D.C. _____. 1999b. «Hungary--On the Road to the European Union.» Country study, Washington, D.C. _____. 1999c. «Estonia--Implementing the EU Accession Agenda.» Coun try study, Washington, D.C. _____. 1999d. «Czech Republic--Toward EU Accession.» Country study, Washington, D.C. 268 _____. 2000. «Progress Toward the Unification of Europe.» Paper for the World Free of Poverty series, Washington, D.C. _____. 2001. «Bulgaria--The Dual Challenge of Transition and Accession.» Washington, D.C. Balcerowicz, Leszek. 1994. «Understanding Postcommunist Transitions.» Journal of Democracy 5(4): 75­89. _____. 1995. Socialism, Capitalism, Transformation. Budapest: Central European University Press. Bunce, Valerie. 1999. «The Political Economy of Post Communism.» Slavic Review 58(4): 756­93. Ekiert, Grzegorz, and Jan Kubik. 1998. «Contentious Politics in New Democracies: Hungary, the former East Germany, Poland, and Slova kia.» World Politics 50(4): 547­81. Elster, Jon, Claus Offe, Ulrich K. Preuss, Frank Boeuher, Ulrike Goetting, and Friedbert W. Rueb. 1998. Institutional Design in Post communist Societies: Rebuilding the Ship at Sea. Cambridge, MA: Cambridge Uni versity Press. Fish, M. Stephen. 1998. «The Determinants of Economic Reform in the Post Communist World.» East European Politics and Societies 12(1): 31­78. Greskovits, Bela. 1998. The Political Economy of Protest and Patience: East European and Latin American Transformations Compared. Budapest: Central European University Press. Hellman, Joel S. 1998. «Winners Take All: The Politics of Partial Reform in Postcommunist Transitions.» World Politics 50(2): 203­34. Offe, Claus. 1991. «Capitalism by Democratic Design? Democratic Theory Facing the Triple Transition in East Central Europe.» Social Research 58(4): 893­902. Przeworski, Adam. 1991. Democracy and the Market: Political and Eco nomic Reforms in Eastern Europe and Latin America. Cambridge, MA: Cambridge University Press. Roland, Gerard. 2000. Transition and Economics: Politics, Markets, and Firms. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. Shleifer, Andrei, and Daniel Treisman. 2000. Without A Map: Political Tactics and Economic Reform in Russia. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. 269 , Frye, Timothy. 1997. «Contracting in the Shadow of the State: Private Arbi tration Commissions in Russia.» In Jeffrey D. Sachs and Katharina Pis tor, eds., The Rule of Law and Economic Reform in Russia. New York, NY: Westview Press. Frye, Timothy, and Andrei Shleifer. 1997. «The Invisible Hand and the Grabbing Hand.» The American Economic Review 87(2): 354­8. Hay, Jonathan R. and Andrei Shleifer. 1998. «Private Enforcement of Public Laws: A Theory of Legal Reform.» American Economic Review 88(2): 398­403. Hendley, Kathryn, Peter Murrell, and Randi Ryterman. 2000. «Law, Rela tionships, and Private Enforcement: Transactional Strategies of Russ ian Enterprises.» Europe Asia Studies 52(4): 627­56. Hellman, Joel S., Geraint Jones, and Daniel Kaufmann. 2000. «Seize the State, Seize the Day: State Capture, Corruption, and Influence in Transition.» Policy Research Working Paper No. 2444, World Bank, Washington, D.C. Johnson, Simon, Daniel Kaufman, and Andrei Shleifer. 1997. «The Unoffi cial Economy in Transition.» Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 27(2): 159­239. Johnson, Simon, Daniel Kaufmann, and Pablo Zoido Lobaton. 1998. «Gov ernment in Transition: Regulatory Discretion and the Unofficial Economy.» American Economic Review 88(2): 387­92. Johnson, Simon, John McMillan, and C. Woodruff. 2000. «Entrepreneurs and the Ordering of Institutional Reform--Poland, Slovakia, Roma nia, Russia, and Ukraine Compared.» Economics of Transition 8(1): 1­36. La Porta, Rafael, Andrei Shleifer, Robert W. Vishny, and Florencio Lopez de Silanes. 1998. «Law and Finance.» Journal of Political Economy 106(6): 1113­55. Sachs, Jeffrey D., and Katharina Pistor, eds. 1997. The Rule of Law and Eco nomic Reform in Russia. Boulder, CO: Westview Press. Shleifer, Andrei, and Robert Vishny. 1998. The Grabbing Hand: Govern ment Pathologies and Their Cures. Cambridge, MA: Harvard Univer sity Press. Volkov, Vladimir. 1999. «Violent Entrepreneurship in Post Communist Russia.» Europe Asia Studies 51(5): 741­54. 270 World Bank. 2000. Anticorruption in Transition: A Contribution to the Policy Debate. Washington, D.C. Kitschelt, Herbert, Zdenka Mansfeldova, Radoslaw Markowski, and Gabor Toka. 1999. Post Communist Party Systems: Competition, Representa tion, and Inter Party Cooperation. Cambridge, MA: Cambridge Uni versity Press. Linz, Juan J., and Alfred C. Stepan. 1996. Problems of Democratic Transition and Consolidation: Southern Europe, South America, and Post Commu nist Europe, Part IV. Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press. Roeder, Philip G. 1994. «Varieties of Post Soviet Authoritarian Regimes.» Post Soviet Affairs 10(1): 61­101. Elster, Jon, Claus Offe, and Ulrich K. Preuss. 1998. Institutional Design in Post Communist Societies. New York, NY: Cambridge University Press. Offe, Claus. 1991. «Capitalism by Democratic Design? Democratic Theory Facing the Triple Transition in East Central Europe.» Social Research 58(4): 865­92. Przeworski, Adam, and others. 1995. Sustainable Democracy. Cambridge, MA: Cambridge University Press. , Fearon, James D., and David D. Laitin. 1996. «Explaining Interethnic Coop eration.» American Political Science Review 90(4): 715­35. Laitin, David D. 1998. Identity in Formation. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press. Offe, Claus. 1997. «Ethnic Politics in East European Transitions.» Varieties of Transitions: The East European and East German Experience. Cam bridge, MA: MIT Press. Vujacic, Veljko. 1996. «Historical Legacies, Nationalist Mobilization, and Political Outcomes in Russia and Serbia: A Weberian View.» Theory and Society 25(6): 763­801. 271 * Alesina, Alberto, and Howard Rosenthal. 1995. Partisan Politics, Divided Government, and the Economy. New York, NY: Cambridge University Press. Alesina, Alberto, Nouriel Roubini, and Gerald Cohen. 1997. Political Cycles ° and the Macroeconomy. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. Aslund, Anders. 2001. «The Myth of Output Collapse after Communism.» ° Carnegie Endowment Working Paper No. 18, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Washington, D.C. Aslund, Anders, Peter Boone, and Simon Johnson. 1996. «How to Stabilize: Lessons from Post Communist Countries.» Brookings Papers on Eco nomic Activity 26(1): 217­311. Balcerowicz, Leszek. 1995. Socialism, Capitalism, Transformation. Budapest: Central European University Press. Berg, Andrew, Eduardo Borensztein, Ratna Sahay, and Jeromin Zettelmeyer. 1999. «The Evolution of Output in Transition Economies: Explaining the Differences.» IMF Working Paper No. WP/99/73, International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C. Campos, Nauro F., and Fabrizio Coricelli. 2000. «Growth in Transition: What We Know, What We Don't, and What We Should.» Centre for Economic Policy Research, London. Carlin, Wendy, Steven Fries, Mark Schaffer, and Paul Seabright. 2001. «Competition and Enterprise Performance in Transition Economies: Evidence from a Cross Country Survey.» EBRD Working Paper No. 63, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, London. Castanheira, Micael, and Vladimir Popov. 1999. «Framework Paper on the Political Economy of Growth in Russia and Central and Eastern Euro pean Countries.» Paper for the Global Development Network con ference, World Bank, Washington, D.C. November. Caves, R. 1998. «Industrial Organization and New Findings on the Turnover and Mobility of Firms.» Journal of Economic Literature 36(4): 1947­82. de Melo, Martha, and Alan Gelb. 1996. «A Comparative Analysis of Twenty Transition Economies in Europe and Asia» Post Soviet Geography and Economics 37(5): 265­85. * «processed» , . 272 de Melo, Martha, Cevdet Denizer, and Alan Gelb. 1996. «From Plan to Mar ket: Patterns of Transition.» World Bank, Washington, D.C. de Melo, Martha, Cevdet Denizer, Alan Gelb, and Stoyan Tenev. 1997. «Cir cumstances and Choice: The Role of Initial Conditions and Policies in Transition Economies.» Policy Research Working Paper No. 1866, World Bank, Washington, D.C. Dethier, Jean Jacques, Hafez Ghanem, and Edda Zoli. 1999. «Does Democ racy Facilitate the Economic Transition?» World Bank, Washington, D.C. Processed. Djankov, Simeon, and Peter Murrell. 2000. The Determinants of Enterprise Restructuring in Transition: An Assessment of the Evidence. Washing ton, D.C.: World Bank. Easterly, William. 2000. «It's Been a Rough Ride, Toto, but I think We're Back in Kansas.» World Bank, Washington, D.C. Processed. Eichengreen, Barry, and Christof Ruehl. 2000. «Financial Sector Developments in Transition Economies.» University of California at Berkeley. Processed. EBRD (European Bank for Reconstruction and Development). 1999. Tran sition Report 1999. London. _____. 2000. Transition Report 2000. London. Eurostat. 1998. New Enterprises in CEC in 1997. Studies and Research, theme 4. Available at http://www.europa.eu.int/comm/eurostat. Fernandez, Raquel, and Dani Rodrik. 1991. «Resistance to Reform: Status Quo Bias in the Presence of Individual Specific Uncertainty.» Ameri can Economic Review 81(5): 1146­55. Fischer, Stanley, and Alan Gelb. 1991. «The Process of Socialist Economic Transformation.» Journal of Economic Perpectives 5(4): 91­106. Fischer, Stanley, Ratna Sahay, and Carlos A. Veight. 1998. «How Far is East ern Europe from Brussels?» IMF Working Paper No. WP/98/53, Inter national Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C. Frye, Timothy, and Joel Hellman. 2001. «Political Data Base of Post Com munist Countries.» World Bank, Washington, D.C. Processed. Freedom House. Various years. Freedom in the World: The Annual Survey of Political Rights and Civil Liberties. New York. Available at http:www.freedomhouse.org. Gaddy, Clifford, and Barry Ickes. 1999. Russia's Virtual Economy. Washing ton, D.C.: Brookings Institution. 273 Haggard, Stephan, and Steven Webb. 1993. «What Do We Know about the Political Economy of Economic Policy Reform?» World Bank Policy Research Observer 8(2): 143­67. Havrylysyhyn, Oleh, and Ron van Rooden. 1999. «Institutions Matter in Transition, but So Do Policies.» Fifth Dubrovnik Conference on Tran sition, Dubrovnic. June. Hellman, Joel. 1998. «Winners Take All: The Politics of Partial Reform.» World Politics 50(2): 203. Hellman, Joel S., Geraint Jones, and Daniel Kaufmann. 2000. «Seize the State, Seize the Day: An Empirical Analysis of State Capture and Cor ruption in Transition Economies.» Policy Research Working Paper No. 2444, World Bank, Washington D.C. Hellman, Joel S., Geraint Jones, Daniel Kaufmann, and Mark Schankerman. 2000. «Measuring Governance Corruption and State Capture: How Firms and Bureaucrats Shape the Business Environment in Transi tion Economies.» Policy Research Working Paper No. 2312, World Bank, Washington D.C. Hernandez Cata, Ernesto. 1997. «Growth and Liberalization during the Transition from Plan to Market.» IMF Staff Papers 44(4): 405­29. Heybey, Berta, and Peter Murrell. 1999. «The Relationship between Eco nomic Growth and the Speed of Liberalization during Transition.» Journal of Policy Reform 3(2): 121­37. Hirschman, Albert O. 1963. Journeys Towards Progress. New York, NY: The Twentieth Century Fund. IMF (International Monetary Fund), World Bank, OECD (Organisation for Economic Co operation and Development), and EBRD (European Bank for Reconstruction and Development). 1991. A Study of the Soviet Economy, vol. 3. Washington, D.C. Jensen, Michael C., and William H. Meckling. 1976. «Theory of the Firm: Managerial Behavior, Agency Costs, and Ownership Structure.» Jour nal of Financial Economics 3(4): 305­60. Johnson, Simon, and Andrei Shleifer. 2001. «Privatization and Corporate Governance.» Paper prepared for the 12th Annual East Asian Semi nar on Economics, June 28­30, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA. Johnson, Simon, Daniel Kaufmann, and Andrei Shleifer. 1997. «The Unof ficial Economy in Transition.» Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 27(2): 159­239. 274 Johnson, Simon, John McMillan, and Christopher Woodruff. 2000. «Entre preneurs and the Ordering of Institutional Reform--Poland, Slova kia, Romania, Russia, and Ukraine Compared.» Economics of Transi tion 8(1): 1­36. Johnson, Simon, Peter Boone, Alasdair Breach, and Eric Friedman. 2000. «Corporate Governance in the Asian Financial Crisis.» Journal of Financial Economics 58(1­2): 141­86. Johnson, Simon, Rafael La Porta, Florencio Lopez de Silanes, and Andrei Shleifer. 2000. «Tunneling.» Harvard Institute of Economic Research Discussion Paper No. 1887, Harvard Institute of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA. Klugman, Jeni. 1999. «Financing and Governance of Education in Central Asia.» MOCT­MOST: Economic Policy in Transitional Economies 9(4): 423­42. Kornai, János. 1986. «The Soft Budget Constraint.» Kyklos 39(1): 3­30. Levine, Ross, and Sara Zervos. 1998. «Stock Market, Banks, and Economic Growth.» American Economic Review 88(3): 537­58. Maddison, Angus. 1982. Phases of Capitalist Development. Oxford, U.K.: Oxford University Press. Martin, Ricardo. 2000. «Revisiting Regression Analysis: Initial Conditions, Policies, and Growth.» Background paper, World Bank, Washington D.C. Orenstein, Mitchell. 2001. Out of the Red: Building Capitalism and Democ racy in Post Communist Europe. Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michi gan Press. Pinto, Brian, Vladimir Drebentsov, and Alexander Morozov. 2000. «Give Macroeconomic Stability and Growth in Russia a Chance: Harden Budgets by Eliminating Non Payments.» Economics of Transition 8(2): 297­324. Popov, Vladimir. 1998. «Will Russia Achieve Fast Economic Growth?» Com munist Economies and Economic Transformation 10(4): 421­35. _____. 1999. «Shock Therapy versus Gradualism: The End of the Debate.» Carleton University, Ottawa. Processed. Przeworski, Adam. 1991. Democracy and the Market: Political and Eco nomic Reforms in Eastern Europe and Latin America. New York, NY: Cambridge University Press. Roubini, Nouriel, and Jeffrey Sachs. 1989. «Political and Economic Deter 275 minants of Budget Deficits in the Industrial Democracies.» European Economic Review 33(5): 903­33. Ruehl, Christof, and Viatcheslav Vinogradov. 2001. «A Simple Model of the Transition from Central Planning.» Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education of Charles University and the Economic Institute of the Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, Prague. Processed. Selowsky, Marcelo, and Ricardo Martin. 1998. «Policy Performance and Output Growth in the Transition Economies.» American Economic Review­Papers and Proceedings 87(2): 350­53. Shleifer, Andrei, and Robert Vishny. 1997. «A Survey of Corporate Gover nance.» Journal of Finance. 52(2): 737­83. Shleifer, Andrei, and D. Wolfenson. 2000. «Investor Protection and Equity Markets.» Harvard University and University of Michigan. Processed. Tarr, David. 1994. «The Terms of Trade Effects of Moving to World Prices on Countries of the FSU.» Journal of Comparative Economics 18(1): 1­24. UNICEF­ICDC (United Nations Children's Fund­International Child Development Centre). 1999. «TransMONEE.» Database. World Bank. 1998. World Development Report 1998/99: Knowledge for Development. Washington, D.C. _____. 1999a. Czech Republic: Capital Market Review. Washington, D.C. _____. 1999b. «Russia: Regional Education Study.» Human Development Sector Unit, Europe and Central Asia Region, Washington, D.C. _____. 2000a. Poverty Reduction and the World Bank: Progress in Fiscal 1999. Washington, D.C. _____. 2000b. Making Transition Work for Everyone: Poverty and Inequal ity in Europe and Central Asia. Washington D.C. _____. 2000c. Anticorruption in Transition: A Contribution to the Policy Debate. Washington, D.C. _____. 2001. World Development Indicators, 2001. Washington, D.C. « » : 9 , , 101831, .: (095) 923 68 39, 923 85 68 : (095) 925 42 69 e mail: vesmirorder@vesmirbooks.ru http://www.vesmirbooks.ru : -- « » : .. 03510 15.12.2000 (« ») 02.10.2002 . . 60 × 841/16. « » 101831, , ., 9 4 , . , « » , .