The World Bank Second Global Partnership for Education (P149130) REPORT NO.: RES27720 RESTRUCTURING PAPER ON A PROPOSED PROJECT RESTRUCTURING OF SECOND GLOBAL PARTNERSHIP FOR EDUCATION APPROVED ON APRIL 14, 2015 TO LAO PEOPLE'S DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC EDUCATION EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC Regional Vice President: Victoria Kwakwa Country Director: Ellen A. Goldstein Senior Global Practice Director: Jaime Saavedra Chanduvi Practice Manager/Manager: Harry Anthony Patrinos Task Team Leader: Plamen Nikolov Danchev 1 The World Bank Second Global Partnership for Education (P149130) ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS BEQUAL - Basic Education Quality and Access in Lao PDR CA - Coordinating Agency for Global Partnership for Education Grants DESB - District Education and Sports Bureau DFAT - Australia’s Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade DP - Development Partners EFA-FTI - Education for All – Fast Track Initiative ESWG - Education Sector Working Group EU - European Union GA - Grant Agent of the Global Partnership for Education Grants GPE - Global Partnership for Education GPE II - Second Global Partnership for Education Project GoL - Government of Lao People’s Democratic Republic IDA - International Development Association IP - Implementation Progress LAK - Laotian Kip (currency) US$ 1 = LAK 8000 Lao PDR - Lao People’s Democratic Republic PDO - Project Development Objectives SBG - School Block Grant SBM - School Based Management SDP - School Development Plan US$ - United States Dollars VEDC - Village Education Development Committee 2 The World Bank Second Global Partnership for Education (P149130) TABLE OF CONTENTS BASIC DATA 4 Product Information 4 Organizations 4 Processing 4 Project Development Objective (PDO) 4 Summary Status of Financing 4 Policy Waivers 5 PROJECT STATUS AND RATIONALE FOR RESTRUCTURING 5 A. Background 5 B. Summary of Project Status 5 C. Rationale for Restructuring 7 DESCRIPTION OF PROPOSED CHANGES 8 D. Scope and cost of components 8 Component 1 8 Component 2 9 Component 3 9 E. Change in Loan Closing Date 10 F. Change in Implementation Schedule 10 G. Reallocation between Disbursement Categories 10 H. Change in Disbursement Estimates 10 I. Change in Results Framework 10 SUMMARY OF CHANGES 11 DETAILED CHANGES 11 Results Framework 12 Project Development Objective Indicators 12 Intermediate Indicators 15 Components 19 Loan Closing Date(S) 20 Reallocation Between Disbursement Categories 20 Disbursement Estimates 20 ANNEX I: DESCRIPTION OF THE READING READINESS PROGRAM UNDER COMPONENT 2 22 ANNEX II. ACTION PLAN FOR PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION 26 ANNEX III: RATIONALE FOR THE CHANGES IN THE RESULTS FRAMEWORK 28 ANNEX IV. OVERVIEW OF THE CHANGES TO GPE II COMPONENT COSTS 42 ANNEX V. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE CHANGES TO GPE II COMPONENTS, ACTIVITIES AND COSTS 43 ANNEX VI. OVERVIEW OF EDUCATION SECTOR FINANCING, PLANNING AND COORDINATION 47 3 The World Bank Second Global Partnership for Education (P149130) BASIC DATA Product Information Project ID Financing Instrument P149130 Investment Project Financing Original EA Category Current EA Category Partial Assessment (B) Partial Assessment (B) Approval Date Current Closing Date 14-Apr-2015 15-Jul-2019 Organizations Borrower Responsible Agency Lao People's Democratic Republic Ministry of Education and Sports Project Development Objective (PDO) Original PDO The objective of the project is to support the Government of Lao PDR in improving pre-primary and primary education quality.

This will be done by: (i) providing additional funding at school, district and provincial levels, as well as strengtheningoverall capacity to manage these resources to achieve minimum education quality standards and (ii) enhancing the teaching and learning environment in schools through improved teaching practices, instructional resources and analytical products to support early grade literacy. OPS_TABLE_PDO_CURRENTPDO Summary Status of Financing Net Ln/Cr/Tf Approval Signing Effectiveness Closing Commitment Disbursed Undisbursed TF-18969 14-Apr-2015 04-Jun-2015 04-Jun-2015 15-Jul-2019 16.80 5.47 11.33 4 The World Bank Second Global Partnership for Education (P149130) Policy Waiver(s) Does this restructuring trigger the need for any policy waiver(s)? No I. PROJECT STATUS AND RATIONALE FOR RESTRUCTURING A. Background 1. The Second Global Partnership for Education Project (the project, or GPE II) is a US$ 16.8 million grant from the Global Partnership for Education (GPE), approved on April 14, 2015 and effective since June 4, 2015. The grant’s supervision has been entrusted to the World Bank, acting as GPE Grant Agent (GA) under the oversight of the Lao PDR Education Sector Working Group (ESWG)1 and the GPE coordinating agencies (CA) in Lao PDR – UNICEF, the European Union (EU) and the Australia’s Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT). The GPE II supports the efforts of the Government of Lao PDR (GoL) to strengthen the governance and improve the quality of primary and preprimary education through the following key interventions: (a) enhancing the school based management (SBM) capacity at school, district and central levels through a nationwide SBM training based on harmonized training materials focusing on school self-assessment, school development planning and management of school block grants (SBGs) (GPE II Component 1, original costs US$ 6.4 million, actual costs US$1.5 million) (b) improving the transparency of the school funding model by establishing a national system of school bank accounts (GPE II Component 1, no associated project costs) (c) providing additional funding for non-wage expenditures of primary schools and kindergartens through complementary SBGs to help schools achieve minimum education quality standards (GPE II Component 1, US$ 5.04 million), (d) strengthening the capacity of central, provincial and district authorities to support schools and monitor their SBM and SBG implementation, and support sector wide monitoring (GPE II Components 1 and 3, US$ 2.76 million), and (e) pilot a new reading pedagogy approach aimed at improving the early grade literacy among students in Grades 1 and 2 to enhance their ability to understand curriculum in later grades (GPE II Component 2, US$ 2.5 million) B. Summary of Project Status 2. The GPE II is half way through its four-year implementation period, with 33 percent of the grant (US$ 5.47 million) disbursed to date. Both the implementation progress (IP) and the likelihood for accomplishing the project development objective (PDO) ratings were last rated Moderately Unsatisfactory (MU), reflecting the significant implementation delays of approximately 24 months, the inability of the project to implement Component 2, and the modest grant’s disbursements at the time of the last implementation support mission in December 2017. The reasons for the delays are as follows: 1 The Lao PDR’s ESWG is the GPE’s local education group (LEG) in charge of GPE grants. The Lao PDR ESWG comprises of GoL and DPs representatives, including the World Bank as a GPE II grant agent, The ESWG is chaired by the Minister of Education and Sports and co-chaired by the Development Partners with largest education portfolio in the Lao PDR – the EU and DFAT. 5 The World Bank Second Global Partnership for Education (P149130) (a) The project was designed with the assumption that shortly after project effectiveness a consensus would be reached among the development partners (DPs) and the GoL on harmonized SBM training materials and approach. However, such consensus was reached with a 12-month delay in July 2016. The Ministry of Education and Sport (MOES) and DPs approved a training package with significantly reduced training content, aligned with the objectives of GPE II and the absorptive capacity of the trainees, with focus on the most important aspects of SBM – school self- assessment, school development planning and management of school block grants. Relatedly, the time required for covering these essential topics was reduced from 10 to 3 days. The lecturing approach was replaced by interactive training design whereby the initial 2 days of the training are used to build capacity on school self-assessment against the education quality standards and using SBGs to achieve the development objectives of the school, followed by a two week break in which trainees, together with the Village Education Development Committee (VEDC) jointly draft the school development plan (SDP) and bring it together for the final third day of the training, where the drafts are discussed and further improved. The decision of MOES to pursue a quality implementation of the SBM training through recruitment of well qualified trainers (instead of the originally planned cascade training) has incurred additional 6-month delay until the Project could train and recruit the best available 110 trainers to deliver the training nationwide. Finally, the actual implementation of the training has taken 4 months longer than planned due to ad hoc revisions of incorrect training session budgets that disrupted the flow of funds, the pace of training delivery, and the trainers’ deployment scheme. This has added up to a total of 22-month delay compared to the original implementation schedule. In the end of February 2018, the training was completed in all 148 districts in the country. Significant share of the current project disbursement is attributed to the successful completion of this key activity. (b) The GPE II conditions the disbursement of the complementary SBGs on school compliance with the following three key criteria: (i) school participation in the national SBM training, (ii) submission of credible School Development Plan (SDPs), and (iii) school bank accounts opened to receive both the GoL and the GPE II SBGs. The delay of the SBM training has triggered a domino effect across all activities tied to it, including the disbursement of the SBGs. With the completion of SBM training, all primary schools have now met the first two conditions (SDPs are submitted by schools as a key output from the SBM training). Meanwhile the Ministry of Education and Sports has assisted all primary schools and kindergarten to open their bank accounts. Thus, all SBG disbursement conditions have been met. The first annual payment of complementary SBGs was disbursed in end May 2018, increasing the grant disbursements from 13 to 33 percent, while the second SBG payment in November 2018, along with other planned activities, will drive disbursements to over 50 percent by the end of the 2018 calendar year. (c) The complex procurement process for selection of technical advisors to develop and implement the reading development pilot intervention for primary grades 1 and 2 under GPE II Component 2 lasted approximately 24 months and ended unsuccessfully in December 2017, with all three bidding consortia’s withdrawing from the process. The program was originally designed to inform the GoL’s efforts to improve the primary education curriculum supported by the DFAT’s BEQUAL program. However, the GoL has decided to accelerate the primary education curriculum work, starting revisions four months after GPE II project effectiveness (October 2015). These new timelines were not foreseen at the GPE II preparation and approval stages. The procurement delays under GPE II have completely ruled out the possibility for the program to inform the curriculum revisions. The latter are being presently finalized and prepared for national rollout. A potential renewal of the procurement process without changing the primary Grades 1 and 2’ focus of the program would lead to overlaps with the ongoing BEQUAL interventions around the new curriculum rollout. The revised curriculum’s approach to Lao language acquisition employs many elements of the GPE II reading development program. The curriculum also takes on board the key recommendations from the EGRA 2012 assessment, including better scope and sequence of Grades 1 and 2 curricula. Finally, the curriculum rollout has a national coverage, as opposed to GPE II pilot’s coverage of 80 primary schools. The geographical, technical and implementation overlaps, taken together with the implementation delays, render the GPE II reading intervention redundant. The project’s inability to implement the program has been reflected in the PDO downgrade to MU. 6 The World Bank Second Global Partnership for Education (P149130) 3. Even though the grant’s disbursements are significantly lower than the original projections, the GPE II has brought about significant education system changes that cannot be tracked and fully assessed by the level of disbursements. Such system changes include: (a) the shift from cash based distribution of school block grants to a national system of school bank accounts, combined with the GoL authorization for the World Bank to have independent access to school bank account statements for verification of the GoL and GPE II SBG disbursements. This represent an important stride towards greater transparency of fund flows, it facilitates the monitoring and verification of SBG transfers, and addresses the key lessons learned from the pilot implementation of the SBGs under the previous GPE grant (Catalytic Fund/Education for All – Fast Track Initiative (EFA FTI) Project, P114609) (b) tying the SBG disbursements to the development of SDPs, which has been defined as a policy intent by the GoL, but is being implemented for the first time under the GPE II project. (c) prioritizing quality over quantity. Achieving system changes and upgrading implementation arrangements after project effectiveness have led to implementation delays, but the resulting improvements (effective SBM training, rigorous monitoring of school compliance for SBG disbursements, transparency of fund flows) appear to be fit for purpose and sustainable. 4. The Project has maintained good fiduciary standards – there have been adequate financial management controls and procedures in place, all interim financial reports have been submitted, albeit with slight delays at few instances, and the annual project audit reports have been received with an unqualified opinion. The project has complied with all legal covenants and environmental and social safeguards. C. Rationale for Restructuring 5. The most critical issue addressed by the proposed restructuring is the project’s inability to implement its original reading development program (and thus accomplish the PDO) within the current project timeframe. A solution has been identified and endorsed by ESWG2 that shifts the current focus of GPE II Component 2 from reading development for students in primary Grades 1 and 2 to reading readiness program for children aged 5 (preprimary education) in the target communities of the IDA funded Early Childhood Education Project (ECE project, P145544) in the Northern Lao PDR. The new GPE II reading readiness program will align with and complement the efforts of the GoL, the World Bank and other DPs (UNICEF, IFAD, WFP) to achieve geographical convergence and complementarity of interventions packaged into holistic early childhood development programs. This solution also overcomes the duplication of efforts with the ongoing nationwide primary education activities supported by the DFAT’s BEQUAL program, while adhering to the PDO focus on improving the quality of preprimary and primary education. The proposed reading readiness intervention would be anchored to the ongoing early childhood education programs supported by the ECE project. This will facilitate the implementation of the new program and will enable the GPE II to take advantage of the ECE project impact evaluation and the knowledge generated through it to inform the reading readiness program design and evaluate its impact without the need to initiate a completely new impact evaluation. Detailed description of the program is provided in Annex I. 6. The ESWG resolution also recommends greater allocation of GPE II funds to the frontline of delivery, including more resources for the new reading readiness program and for the complementary SBGs, which will increase the positive impact of the project interventions on beneficiaries and ultimately increase the likelihood for achieving the PDO. Considering the above, the GoL has requested that the Project’s Grant Agreement be amended to: (a) Replace “Grades 1 and 2” with “children aged 5 years in preprimary preparatory groups and kindergartens” under Part 2, 2.1 of Schedule 1 to the Agreement (to reflect the proposed new reading readiness program); 2The ESWG has issued two decisions for the restructuring of the GPE II - an executive level resolution dated January 18, 2018 and a technical level decision dated January 29, 2018. 7 The World Bank Second Global Partnership for Education (P149130) (b) Extend the Project’s implementation period by seventeen months and fifteen days and establish a later closing date of December 31, 2020 in Section IV.B.2 of Schedule 2 to the Agreement (to allow sufficient time for the design and implementation of the reading readiness program); (c) Introduce changes to the Project’s results framework indicators (to reflect the above described amendments and to address several shortcomings of the original results framework); and (d) Reallocate funds across the financing categories of eligible expenditures in Section IV.A.2 of Schedule 2 to the Agreement to reflect the changes in the project’s components and costs as described in the Section II. Description of Proposed Changes. 7. In line with paragraph 50 of the Bank Directive on Investment Project Financing, the restructuring paper confirms that (i) the PDO will remain achievable with the requested project extension, and (ii) the GoL has adopted an action plan with specific timed measures to ensure satisfactory implementation progress. The action plan has been discussed and agreed upon with the Bank, it is an integral part of the GoL restructuring request and is also included in Annex II to the restructuring paper for ease of reference. The already accomplished criteria for disbursement of the complementary SBGs, as described in paragraph 2(b), will ensure satisfactory performance of the project, with sizeable and regular disbursements throughout the project lifetime. All relevant project documents (the GPE II project implementation manual, the SBG manual and the GPE II procurement plan) have been updated by the GoL to reflect the key parameters of the proposed restructuring, and have been reviewed and considered satisfactory by the Bank. II. DESCRIPTION OF PROPOSED CHANGES D. Changes in components and cost: The restructuring proposes cost reallocations across and within components amounting to 32 percent of the GPE II grant, including reallocation of 9 percent of the grant between components (6 percent (US$ 1 M) from Component 1 to Component 2 and 3 percent (US$ 0.5M) from Component 3 to Component 2, and reallocation of 23 percent of the grant within Component 1 (US$ 3.9 M from SBM training to SBGs). These changes significantly increase the project resources at the frontline of delivery, further supporting the accomplishment of the PDO and the anticipated project outcomes. Detailed description of the reallocations and changes at component, subcomponent and activity levels is presented in Annex IV and V to the restructuring paper. 8. Changes to Component 1: Strengthening School-Based Management. To improve targeting of priority districts to reach the most disadvantaged schools, and maximize the impact of the SBGs on meeting the minimum education quality standards, the ESWG has recommended the following changes: (a) Improve the accuracy of targeting of interventions. Historical review of the indicator used to determine the GPE II priority districts3 (Girls survival rate to Grade 5) reveals very high volatility, with around 20 districts moving between disadvantaged and more advantaged groups from year to year. The ESWG has identified and approved a set of eight indicators that provides greater consistency in determining the most disadvantaged districts, leading to an increase in the number of GPE II priority districts from 80 to 88. The addition of 8 disadvantaged districts to the pool of GPE II priority districts will frontload the GPE II support to additional 418 primary schools and 163 kindergartens, and will brings immediate benefits to 39,500 additional children and students that would have otherwise received GPE II support only in the final year of project implementation. (b) Increase the GPE II complementary SBGs to match the GoL’s larger than planned investments in SBG. To match the GoL’s significant increase in SBG spending since project effectiveness4, and to support the achievement of the GoL’s SBG target of LAK 100,000 (US$ 12.5) per student per year, the GPE II investment in complementary SBGs will be slightly increased from LAK 20,000 (US$ 2.5) to LAK 30,000 (US$ 3.75) per primary student per year, and from LAK 15,000 (US$ 1.9) to LAK 50,000 (US$ 6.25) per preprimary student per year. The proposed increase 3 Schools and kindergartens in priority districts are eligible to receive three annual payments of complementary SBGs from GPR II, as opposed to non-priority districts, which will receive only one annual payment of SBGs in the final year of GPE II implementation. 4 GoL has increased the spending on SBGs from LAK 20,000 (US$ 2.5) to LAK 70,000 (US$ 8.75) per primary student per year, and from LAK 15,000 (US$ 1.9) to LAK 50,000 (US$ 6.25) per preprimary student per year 8 The World Bank Second Global Partnership for Education (P149130) complies with the requirement that GPE II matching funds be equal to or lower than the GoL SBG support. This change will result in increasing the GPE II investment in complementary SBGs by US3.91 million to US$ 8.95 million, also covering the additional 8 disadvantaged districts. (c) Update SBM training costs and reallocate Component 1 efficiency savings to Component 2.: As a result of the GoL’s decision to transform the original 10-day cascade SBM training into a 3-day flat training (as per details in 2a), the project has achieved efficiency savings of about US$ 4.9 million. The ESWG recommends reallocation of these savings to support complementary SBG (US$ 3,91 million) and the implementation of the new reading readiness program under Component 2 (US$ 1 million). 9.Changes to Component 2: Improving Learning Outcomes and Assessment Capacity. To avoid duplication of efforts with the national primary education curriculum activities of the DFAT’s BEQUAL program, as described in paragraphs 2(c) and 5, the GoL and the Bank have agreed upon, and the Lao PDR ESWG has endorsed, to introduce the following changes to Component 2: (a) Refocus the GPE II reading development intervention from Grade 1 and 2 of primary schools to the final year of preprimary preparation of children aged 5 (detailed description of the program is provided in Annex I); (b) Increase the target communities from 80 to 127 and implement the intervention in the World Bank’s ECE project convergence districts, thus facilitating implementation and impact evaluation, maximizing impact on early childhood development outcomes, and achieving greater efficiency. The 127 remote, mountainous, and mostly ethnic communities are located in the GPE II priority districts; (c) Increase the funding for Component 2 from US$ 2.5 million to US$ 4.0 million by using the efficiency savings from Component 1 (US$ 1 million) and Component 3 (US$ 0.5 million) to support the fifty percent increase of the program beneficiaries and ensure sufficient resources for the required technical assistance; (d) Revise the implementation schedule, as described in paragraphs 13 (a) – (c), and extend the project’s closing date to December 31, 2020 to allow sufficient time for the program implementation (paragraph 12). (e) Mitigate the risk of a repeated procurement failure to recruit the reading readiness technical advisors (TAs) by (i) shifting from firm selection methods to selection of individual consultants based on clearly defined, task-specific terms of reference, and (ii) recruitment of a literacy program supervisor by the Grant Agent to provide capacity building to GoL, supervision, coordination and quality assurance of the team of experts individually recruited by the GoL. The request for additional GA supervision fees required to support these risk mitigation measures is an integral part of the restructuring package). 10. Changes to Component 3: Project Management and Monitoring and Evaluation. The key activities under the component are kept mostly unchanged, including the support for collection of sector wide indicators, monitoring and evaluation activities, data collection on service delivery standards indicators for a panel of representative schools, and additional qualitative data collection. At the same time, the number and scope of the workshops related to project implementation are reduced to reflect the implementation delays, with the resultant efficiency savings of US$ 0.5 million reallocated to support the implementation of Component 2. To address the issue of suboptimal coordination among the various implementing units (IUs) of the MOES, between IUs and the project implementation unit (PIU), and between PIU, and DPs, the ESWG has recommended, and the GPE II project has initiated the selection of a project coordinator. 11. The above-described changes under the three components will result in adjustments to the project component costs as shown in Section IV. Detailed changes. E. Change in Loan Closing Date 12. In view of the challenges and solutions presented in paragraphs 2 (c), 5, 6 and 9 (d), the restructuring proposes to extend the project closing date by seventeen months and fifteen days to December 31, 2020 to provide the required additional time for implementation of the refocused reading readiness program and ensure the PDO remains achievable. 9 The World Bank Second Global Partnership for Education (P149130) F. Change in Implementation Schedule: 13. In view of the proposed reprogramming of Component 2, the implementation schedule of the project needs to be adjusted accordingly to reflect the following timelines: (a) program design and trial, training of master coaches, coaches and teachers: April 2018 - August 2019; (b) baseline impact evaluation data collection: August/September 2019 (c) actual implementation of the reading readiness program in 127 communities, along with ongoing process monitoring, classroom observations and coaching of teachers during the academic year September 2019 - June 2020; (d) impact evaluation endline data collection and analysis: July -December 2020. 14. It is proposed to adjust the schedule for disbursement of the complementary SBGs by one academic year to reflect the delayed completion of the national SBM training and the SBG disbursement compliance verification process. This will allow the project to implement the original plan for provision of three annual payments of complementary SBGs to all schools and kindergartens in the GPE II priority districts and one annual payment to the non-priority districts. Therefore, the proposed new SBG disbursement schedule includes the following SGB transfers: (a) first annual payment of complementary SBGs – by end May 2018 (SBG for academic year 2017/2018) (b) second annual payment of complementary SBGs – by November 2018 (SBG for academic year 2018/2019) (c) third annual payment of complementary SBGs – by November 2019 (SBG for academic year 2019/2020) G. Reallocation between Disbursement Categories 15. In line with the proposed increase of the complementary SBGs for preprimary and primary students described in paragraph 8 (b), the disbursement category “School Grants” needs to be revised accordingly from US$ 5.04 million to US$ 8.95 million. H. Change in Disbursement Estimates 16. The restructuring proposes to update the disbursement estimates as shown in table in Section “IV. Detailed changes” to reflect (i) the actual disbursements to date and the accrued implementation delays, (ii) the proposed new scope, scale and implementation schedule of Component 2, and (iv) the increased amount of the complementary SBGs under Component 1 and their updated disbursement schedule. I. Changes in Results Framework 17. The restructuring proposes to revise ten (of which one PDO indicator), drop eight (of which three PDO indicators), and introduce eight new indicators (of which four PDO indicators) to align the results framework with the above described changes, address methodological, measurement and precision issues of the original indicators, and provide baseline, intermediate and endline targets that were omitted in the original results framework. Additional details on the revisions are provided in Section “IV. Detailed Changes”, while the rationale for the changes for each affected indicator is provided in Annex III. III. SUMMARY OF CHANGES Changed Not Changed Change in Results Framework ✔ Change in Components and Cost ✔ Change in Loan Closing Date(s) ✔ 10 The World Bank Second Global Partnership for Education (P149130) Reallocation between Disbursement Categories ✔ Change in Disbursement Estimates ✔ Change in Implementation Schedule ✔ Change in Implementing Agency ✔ Change in DDO Status ✔ Change in Project's Development Objectives ✔ Cancellations Proposed ✔ Change in Disbursements Arrangements ✔ Change in Overall Risk Rating ✔ Change in Safeguard Policies Triggered ✔ Change of EA category ✔ Change in Legal Covenants ✔ Change in Institutional Arrangements ✔ Change in Financial Management ✔ Change in Procurement ✔ Other Change(s) ✔ Change in Economic and Financial Analysis ✔ Change in Technical Analysis ✔ Change in Social Analysis ✔ Change in Environmental Analysis ✔ IV. DETAILED CHANGE(S) OPS_DETAILEDCHANGES_RESULTS_TABLE RESULTS FRAMEWORK Project Development Objective Indicators PDO_IND_TABLE Percentage of public primary schools that meet the minimum quality of service delivery Unit of Measure: Percentage Indicator Type: Custom Baseline Actual (Current) End Target Action Value 71.00 71.00 80.00 Revised 11 The World Bank Second Global Partnership for Education (P149130) Date 28-Apr-2017 06-Mar-2018 31-Dec-2020 Percentage of Grade 1 and 2 teachers in pilot schools who show improvement in teaching practices (measured through objective classroom observations using SSME tool) Unit of Measure: Percentage Indicator Type: Custom Baseline Actual (Current) End Target Action Value 0.00 0.00 80.00 Marked for Deletion Date 15-Jul-2015 15-Dec-2017 15-Jul-2019 Percentage of Grade 2 students in pilot schools that cannot read a single word (female) Unit of Measure: Percentage Indicator Type: Custom Baseline Actual (Current) End Target Action Value 0.00 0.00 15.00 Marked for Deletion Date 15-Jul-2015 15-Dec-2017 15-Jul-2019 Percentage of Grade 2 students in pilot schools who cannot read a single word (male) Unit of Measure: Percentage Indicator Type: Custom Baseline Actual (Current) End Target Action Value 0.00 0.00 15.00 Marked for Deletion Date 15-Jul-2015 15-Dec-2017 15-Jul-2019 Primary education dropout rate Unit of Measure: Percentage Indicator Type: Custom Baseline Actual (Current) End Target Action Value 5.20 4.70 4.50 New Date 30-Sep-2015 06-Mar-2018 31-Dec-2020 Percentage of children in target classrooms with awareness of print Unit of Measure: Percentage Indicator Type: Custom Baseline Actual (Current) End Target Action Value 35.00 35.00 55.00 New 12 The World Bank Second Global Partnership for Education (P149130) Date 06-Mar-2018 06-Mar-2018 31-Dec-2020 Percentage of Lao-Tai speaking children in target classrooms with awareness of print Unit of Measure: Percentage Indicator Type: Custom Breakdown Baseline Actual (Current) End Target Action Value 45.00 45.00 60.00 New Date 06-Mar-2018 06-Mar-2018 31-Dec-2020 Percentage of non Lao-Tai speaking children in target classrooms with awareness of print Unit of Measure: Percentage Indicator Type: Custom Breakdown Baseline Actual (Current) End Target Action Value 25.00 25.00 50.00 New Date 06-Mar-2018 06-Mar-2018 31-Dec-2020 Percentage of boys in target classrooms with awareness of print Unit of Measure: Percentage Indicator Type: Custom Breakdown Baseline Actual (Current) End Target Action Value 35.00 35.00 55.00 New Date 06-Mar-2018 06-Mar-2018 31-Dec-2020 Percentage of girls in target classrooms with awareness of print Unit of Measure: Percentage Indicator Type: Custom Breakdown Baseline Actual (Current) End Target Action Value 35.00 35.00 55.00 New Date 06-Mar-2018 06-Mar-2018 31-Dec-2020 Percentage of 0 scores to a letter sounding task in the Lao alphabet Unit of Measure: Percentage Indicator Type: Custom 13 The World Bank Second Global Partnership for Education (P149130) Baseline Actual (Current) End Target Action Value 100.00 100.00 80.00 New Date 06-Mar-2018 06-Mar-2018 31-Dec-2020 Percentage of girls with 0 scores to a letter sounding task in the Lao alphabet Unit of Measure: Percentage Indicator Type: Custom Breakdown Baseline Actual (Current) End Target Action Value 100.00 100.00 80.00 New Date 06-Mar-2018 06-Mar-2018 31-Dec-2020 Percentage of boys with 0 scores to a letter sounding task in the Lao alphabet Unit of Measure: Percentage Indicator Type: Custom Breakdown Baseline Actual (Current) End Target Action Value 100.00 100.00 80.00 New Date 06-Mar-2018 06-Mar-2018 31-Dec-2020 Percentage of Lao-Tai speaking children with 0 scores to a letter sounding task in the Lao alphabet Unit of Measure: Percentage Indicator Type: Custom Breakdown Baseline Actual (Current) End Target Action Value 100.00 100.00 80.00 New Date 06-Mar-2018 06-Mar-2018 31-Dec-2020 Percentage of non Lao-Tai speaking children with 0 scores to a letter sounding task in the Lao alphabet Unit of Measure: Percentage Indicator Type: Custom Breakdown Baseline Actual (Current) End Target Action Value 100.00 100.00 80.00 New Date 06-Mar-2018 06-Mar-2018 31-Dec-2020 Percentage of teachers trained in the reading readiness program who implement the approach with high fidelity. Unit of Measure: Percentage 14 The World Bank Second Global Partnership for Education (P149130) Indicator Type: Custom Baseline Actual (Current) End Target Action Value 0.00 0.00 75.00 New Date 06-Mar-2018 06-Mar-2018 31-Dec-2020 Intermediate Indicators IO_IND_TABLE Number of districts with annual costed district education plans Unit of Measure: Number Indicator Type: Custom Baseline Actual (Current) End Target Action Value 0.00 0.00 148.00 Revised Date 15-Jul-2015 06-Mar-2018 31-Dec-2020 Percentage of public primary schools in the GPE II priority 88 districts with school development plans meeting minimum quality Unit of Measure: Percentage Indicator Type: Custom Baseline Actual (Current) End Target Action Value 0.00 0.00 80.00 Revised Date 15-Jul-2015 06-Mar-2018 15-Jul-2019 Number of pilot schools provided with kit of instructional materials for Grades 1 and 2 Unit of Measure: Number Indicator Type: Custom Baseline Actual (Current) End Target Action Value 0.00 0.00 80.00 Marked for Deletion Date 15-Jul-2015 15-Dec-2017 15-Jul-2019 Evaluation framework for reading instruction in Lao language to ethnic students developed and submitted to MoES. Unit of Measure: Yes/No Indicator Type: Custom Baseline Actual (Current) End Target Action Value No No Yes Revised 15 The World Bank Second Global Partnership for Education (P149130) Date 15-Jul-2015 06-Mar-2018 31-Dec-2020 Number of Grades 1 and 2 teachers trained as a part of project interventions, disaggregated by gender Unit of Measure: Number Indicator Type: Custom Baseline Actual (Current) End Target Action Value 0.00 0.00 400.00 Marked for Deletion Date 15-Jul-2015 15-Dec-2017 15-Jul-2019 Percentage of trained principals and PAs in pilot schools who observe lessons and provide feedback to teachers Unit of Measure: Percentage Indicator Type: Custom Baseline Actual (Current) End Target Action Value 0.00 0.00 80.00 Marked for Deletion Date 15-Jul-2015 15-Dec-2017 15-Jul-2019 Percentage of public primary schools receiving complementary GPE II block grants Unit of Measure: Percentage Indicator Type: Custom Baseline Actual (Current) End Target Action Value 0.00 0.00 100.00 Revised Date 15-Jul-2015 06-Mar-2018 31-Dec-2020 Percentage of public primary schools whose principals and heads have received capacity building on school based management Unit of Measure: Percentage Indicator Type: Custom Baseline Actual (Current) End Target Action Value 0.00 100.00 100.00 Revised Date 15-Jul-2015 06-Mar-2018 31-Dec-2020 Percentage of Village Education Development Committees receiving capacity building on school based management Unit of Measure: Percentage Indicator Type: Custom Baseline Actual (Current) End Target Action 16 The World Bank Second Global Partnership for Education (P149130) Value 0.00 100.00 100.00 Revised Date 15-Jul-2015 06-Mar-2018 31-Dec-2020 Percentage of public primary schools receiving government block grants Unit of Measure: Percentage Indicator Type: Custom Baseline Actual (Current) End Target Action Value 96.00 96.00 100.00 Revised Date 28-Apr-2017 06-Mar-2018 31-Dec-2020 Percentage of supported Village Education development Committees meeting at least twice per school year. Unit of Measure: Percentage Indicator Type: Custom Baseline Actual (Current) End Target Action Value 99.40 99.40 100.00 Revised Date 28-Apr-2017 06-Mar-2018 31-Dec-2020 Percentage of public primary schools receiving grants with budget information publicly available to communities Unit of Measure: Percentage Indicator Type: Custom Baseline Actual (Current) End Target Action Value 8.50 8.50 80.00 Revised Date 28-Apr-2017 06-Mar-2018 31-Dec-2020 Number of pedagogical advisors and school principals trained as part of the project interventions, dissagregated by gender Unit of Measure: Number Indicator Type: Custom Baseline Actual (Current) End Target Action Value 0.00 0.00 120.00 Marked for Deletion Date 15-Jul-2015 15-Dec-2017 15-Jul-2019 Percentage of trained District Education Sports Bureaus that use the Financial Reporting System Unit of Measure: Percentage Indicator Type: Custom Baseline Actual (Current) End Target Action 17 The World Bank Second Global Partnership for Education (P149130) Value 0.00 0.00 100.00 Revised Date 15-Jul-2015 06-Mar-2018 31-Dec-2020 Disability related indicator piloted for inclusion in sector statistics Unit of Measure: Text Indicator Type: Custom Baseline Actual (Current) End Target Action Value No No Yes Marked for Deletion Date 15-Jul-2015 15-Dec-2017 16-Jul-2019 Number of direct project beneficiaries Unit of Measure: Number Indicator Type: Custom Baseline Actual (Current) End Target Action Value 0.00 26090.00 900000.00 Revised Date 15-Jul-2015 06-Mar-2018 31-Dec-2020 Percentage of female direct project beneficiaries Unit of Measure: Percentage Indicator Type: Custom Supplement Baseline Actual (Current) End Target Action Value 0.00 50.00 50.00 New Number of master coaches trained to develop instructional materials, train coaches and teachers, and supervise the program implementation Unit of Measure: Number Indicator Type: Custom Baseline Actual (Current) End Target Action Value 0.00 0.00 10.00 New Date 06-Mar-2018 06-Mar-2018 31-Dec-2020 Number of Teacher Training Colleges’ faculty trained to coach and train teachers in applying the reading readiness approach Unit of Measure: Number Indicator Type: Custom 18 The World Bank Second Global Partnership for Education (P149130) Baseline Actual (Current) End Target Action Value 0.00 0.00 24.00 New Date 06-Mar-2018 06-Mar-2018 31-Dec-2020 Number of teachers trained by coaches and master coaches in applying the reading readiness approach Unit of Measure: Number Indicator Type: Custom Baseline Actual (Current) End Target Action Value 0.00 0.00 127.00 New Date 06-Mar-2018 06-Mar-2018 31-Dec-2020 Number of classrooms implementing the reading readiness program provided with kit of instructional materials Unit of Measure: Number Indicator Type: Custom Baseline Actual (Current) End Target Action Value 0.00 0.00 127.00 New Date 06-Mar-2018 06-Mar-2018 31-Dec-2020 OPS_DETAILEDCHANGES_COMPONENTS_TABLE COMPONENTS Current Current Proposed Proposed Cost Action Component Name Component Name Cost (US$M) (US$M) Strengthening School-Based Strengthening School-Based 12.70 Revised 11.70 Management Management Improving Reading Outcomes Improving Reading Outcomes 2.50 Revised 4.00 and Assessment Capacity and Assessment Capacity Project Management and Project Management and 1.60 Revised 1.10 Monitoring and Evaluation Monitoring and Evaluation TOTAL 16.80 16.80 OPS_DETAILEDCHANGES_LOANCLOSING_TABLE 19 The World Bank Second Global Partnership for Education (P149130) LOAN CLOSING DATE(S) Original Revised Proposed Proposed Deadline Ln/Cr/Tf Status Closing Closing(s) Closing for Withdrawal Applications TF-18969 Effective 15-Jul-2019 31-Dec-2020 30-Apr-2021 OPS_DETAILEDCHANGES_REALLOCATION _TABLE REALLOCATION BETWEEN DISBURSEMENT CATEGORIES Financing % Current Allocation Actuals + Committed Proposed Allocation (Type Total) Current Proposed TF-18969-001 | Currency: USD iLap Category Sequence No: 1 Current Expenditure Category: GDS,NON-CS,CS,TR&OC EXCL SCH GR 11,760,000.00 742,066.89 7,850,000.00 100.00 100 iLap Category Sequence No: 2 Current Expenditure Category: TF18969 - SCHOOL GRANTS 5,040,000.00 0.00 8,950,000.00 100.00 100 Total 16,800,000.00 742,066.89 16,800,000.00 OPS_DETAILEDCHANGES_DISBURSEMENT_TABLE DISBURSEMENT ESTIMATES Change in Disbursement Estimates Yes Year Current Proposed 2015 0.00 0.00 2016 2,000,000.00 1,597,660.00 2017 6,000,000.00 182,260.00 2018 6,000,000.00 3,574,930.00 2019 2,800,000.00 5,140,000.00 2020 0.00 5,300,000.00 20 The World Bank Second Global Partnership for Education (P149130) 2021 0.00 1,005,150.00 21 The World Bank Second Global Partnership for Education (P149130) ANNEX I: DESCRIPTION OF THE READING READINESS PROGRAM UNDER COMPONENT 2 I. Target group: 127 preprimary teachers and about 500 children aged 5 years with indicative ethnic composition 30% Lao-Tai, 25% Khmu, 27% Hmong, 5% Prai, 4%Phong, 4% Akha, and 5% other ethnic groups, enrolled in kindergartens or preprimary classes in 127 communities in 14 districts in 5 provinces of Northern Laos (Houaphanh, Phongsaly, Oudomxay, Xayaboury, and Borikhamxay). These districts belong to the GPE II pool of priority districts, moreover, they are among the most disadvantaged in the country with respect to all key education disadvantage indicators, malnutrition, stunting, and poverty. II. Language of the Reading Readiness Program In line with the legal provisions concerning the official language of instruction, the reading readiness program will be developed in the official Lao-Tai language with the objective to improve Lao-Tai reading readiness of all target children, 70 percent of which belong to non-Lao Tai language groups. While mother tongue instruction may be appropriate in certain contexts, the existence of 47 ethnicities in Lao PDR, further branching into 160 ethnic groups that speak 82 distinct living languages without written forms (except for the Hmong ethnic group) precludes the identification of effective approaches for developing mother tongue reading readiness programs. The revised primary education curriculum, supported by BEQUAL, and the revised preprimary curriculum, supported by UNICEF, are both based on Lao-Tai language. The reading readiness program under the GPE II project will be designed and delivered in alignment with the revised curricula and the legal provisions for the official language of instruction. III. Content of the Reading Readiness Program (RRP): The GPE II RRP will comprise 20 instructional sessions pack consisting of: 1. Culturally Sensitive Literature: Lao-Tai language literature appropriate for a 5-year-old audience of pre-readers. Topics will be varied, dealing with settings and situations that are familiar and common to all ethnic minority groups and are characteristic of the Lao rural environment 2. Picture Books and Posters: depict settings and situations relevant and common to all ethnic minority groups. Designed to elicit conversations and discussions in the classroom. Containing scenes and events that can be leveraged to support oral language skills by engaging children in activities that involve listening, understanding and speaking. 3. Visuo-haptic Props: allows teachers to introduce and complement phonics instruction with a visuo-haptic exploration of the letters and sounds in the Lao language (such as 3D letters, crepe letters on a sheet, tracing letters along lines/dotted lines, etc.) 4. Teacher Guide: includes (i) session by session scope and sequence, detailing the progression of skills and material for all the instructional activities included in the program’s package and (ii) description of how teachers should conduct the activity with the children and the list of items (letters, words, stories, etc.) that should be used for each session IV. RRP Activities: 1. Setting up of RRP team, recruitment of TAs and procurement of contracted services (a) Reading Readiness Program Team (RRPT) of the Ministry of Education and Sports:  Research Institute for Education Sciences (RIES, master coaches)  Department of Early Childhood Education (DECE, master coaches)  Department of Teacher Training and Education (DTTE, master coaches)  Teacher Training Colleges Faculty (TTC master coaches and coaches) (b) Reading Readiness Technical Advisors (RRTA) The World Bank Second Global Partnership for Education (P149130)  International consultant: Reading Readiness Specialists  International consultant: Linguist Specialist in Ethnic Languages spoken in Lao PDR  Local Consultant: Lao Ethnic Languages Specialist (c) Contracted services:  Illustrators (procured by GoL through GPE II grant)  Editor to stitch each lesson and package the material in books and a teacher guide (procured by GoL through GPE II grant)  Printing firm (procured by GoL through GPE II grant)  Firm to produce the visuo haptic props (such as letter blocks, etc.) (procured by GoL through GPE II grant) 2. Preparation of the RRP content framework: RRPT and RRTA conceptualize the initial framework of activities and materials. 3. Pre-testing and Quality Control: RRPT and RRTA ensure that cultural specificity of each ethnic group is taken in consideration and confirm the activities planned are feasible in the target areas. Pretesting should be conducted in kindergartens and preprimary classes reflecting as close as possible the ethnic composition and profile of the pilot communities. The pre-testing phase should allow sufficient time for the material developers to progressively learn and master how the lessons should be applied in the classroom. 4. Material Development Workshops: involves the RRP core team and Technical Advisors (TAs); takes stock of the pre- testing and quality control feedback and develops the RRP material 5. Printing and distribution of RRP material 6. Trainings: (a) The RRPT will double as master trainers for the coaches, master trainers for the teachers, overall supervisors and coaches of coaches (or coaches themselves) throughout implementation. (b) Initial trainings of the RRPT by the RRTA. RRPT will be provided with opportunities to practice the lessons they developed to improve them, and to master the use of the lessons. (c) RRPT will then train TTC coaches in using the lessons, mentoring the teachers on how to use the material effectively in the classrooms. Regional or national meetings with coaches should be regularly organized to take stock of difficulties and address issues early on. (d) The RRPT along with the coaches will then train the teachers in the target communities. (e) Refresher teacher trainings will be organized locally (lead by coaches of the RRPT), scattered throughout the implementation year to ensure issues are tackled and concerns are addressed in a timely manner, V. GPE II RRP Implementation schedule: 04/2018-08/2019: RRP Preparation Activities 1 to 6 (a)-(d) 09/2019-06/2020: RRP implementation + Activity 6 (e) 06/2019-11/2020: Endline Impact Evaluation data analysis VI. Impact Evaluation (IE) Design: The RRP impact evaluation will be anchored to the existing Early Childhood Education project impact evaluation which covers 376 villages, of which 135 villages with existing preprimary classes, 119 villages with existing kindergartens and 122 villages with no early childhood education programs (see diagram below). The 135 villages with preprimary classrooms have been receiving early childhood development community awareness campaigns (CAC).Among them, 73 villages have been receiving additionally non-formal community child development playgroups (CCDGs) for children aged 3 and 4before they transition to the school readiness program delivered in the existing preprimary classrooms., The other 63 villages have been receiving multi age teaching (MAT) for children of The World Bank Second Global Partnership for Education (P149130) ages 3 to 5, grouped together within the preprimary classrooms. This impact evaluation cluster evaluates the impact of MAT and CCDG on child development and school readiness by directly comparing the two modalities against each other. Out of the 119 villages with formal kindergartens (CAC), the ECE project has been providing the CAC intervention to 61 communities, while the remaining 58 villages have not received any support, thus acting as a control group. It is assumed that these 119ommunities are at a comparative advantage to the rest of the villages as they boast the most expensive ECE modality in Lao PDR – the kindergarten. This study cluster aims at assessing the impact of the CAC on top of the kindergarten service over the child development outcomes. The third cluster consist of 122 villages with no existing ECE programs, of which 74 villages have been receiving the CAC intervention, while the remaining 48 villages have been acting as a pure control group. This cluster study aims at isolating the impact of the CAC on child development outcomes in the absence of any ECE program. The transition from the ECE impact evaluation (ECE IE) to GPE II RRP impact evaluation (GPE II RR IE) will occur in August-September 2019, when the ECE IE endline measurement will be conducted and will serve as a baseline measurement for the GPE II RRP. Since the GPE II RRP will be implemented only in villages with existing preprimary classrooms or kindergartens, the third cluster of 122 will be dropped from the GPE II IE. The remaining 254 villages will be re-randomized at the endline measurement of the ECE IE and regrouped into 127 GPEII RRP treatment villages and 127 control villages. Thus, the children receiving the GPE II RRP will be coming from households that have and have not been benefitting from the ECE project interventions. It is estimated that the population of 5 year olds in the 254 GPE II RRP will be at least 1000, thus ensuring sufficient statistical power. The World Bank Second Global Partnership for Education (P149130) The measurement of the GPE II RRP impact on emergent literacy skills of the target children will be made using the same direct assessment instrument employed for the ECE IE. It includes literacy items ranging from basic to higher order literacy skills, starting from awareness of print to initial sound discrimination and identification, to letter name knowledge, letter sounding, name writing and listening comprehension. The re-randomization of the study sample will enable the GPE II impact evaluation to determine not only the impact of GPE II RRP alone, but also the combined impact of the various ECE IE modalities and the GPE2 RRP. The World Bank Second Global Partnership for Education (P149130) ANNEX II. ACTION PLAN FOR PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION Project New disbursements # Action Completed by: Responsibility Component (million USD) Completion of the remaining training sessions in 20 districts under the national school based management 1. 1 (SBM) training (total coverage of SBM: 148 districts, 590 February 2018 MOES (ECU, IFEAD) 0.2 DESB officers, 8,600 primary school principals and 17,200 VEDC members) Bank accounts opened for 8600 public primary schools and 2. 1 February 2018 MOES (ECU, DOF) 0 2630 public kindergartens First verification of government school block grants (SBG) tranche disbursement to school bank accounts and school 3. 1 April 2018 MOES (ECU, DOF) and WB 0 compliance with the conditions for complementary GPE II SBGs First annual payment of complementary school block 4. 1 grants disbursed to 5760 public primary schools and 1512 May 2018 MOES (ECU, DOF) 2.50 public kindergartens in the 88 priority districts 5. 3 GPE II Project coordinator recruited May 2018 MOES (ECU) 0.12 Study tour on National Student Assessment, SBM and MOES (ECU, DOF, IFEAD, 6. 1 June 2018 0.05 school bank account system to Cambodia RIES, ESQAC) First annual disbursement of DESB operating costs grants 7. 1 June 2018 MOES (ECU, DOF) 0.09 to 88 priority districts First annual disbursement of PESS operating costs grants 8. 1 June 2018 MOES (ECU, DOF) 0.05 to 18 provinces Recruitment of individual consultants (international and 9. 2 local) for design and implementation support of GPE II June 2018 MOES (ECU, RIES, DTTE) 1.20 reading readiness program under Component 2 Training on SBG reporting system, SBM/SBG DESB officers 10. 1 June 2018 MOES (ECU, DOF, IFEAD) 0.45 support visits for 18 PESSs and 148 DESBs Second verification of government SBG tranche disbursement to school bank accounts and school 11. 1 November 2018 MOES (ECU, DOF) and WB 0.00 compliance with the conditions for complementary GPE II SBGs Second annual payment of complementary school block 12. 1 grants disbursed to 5760 public primary schools and 1512 November 2018 MOES (ECU, DOF) 2.5 public kindergartens in the 88 priority districts 26 The World Bank Second Global Partnership for Education (P149130) Project New disbursements # Action Completed by: Responsibility Component (million USD) Second annual disbursement of DESB operating costs 13. 1 January 2019 MOES (ECU, DOF) 0.09 grants to 88 priority districts Second annual disbursement of PESS operating costs 14. 1 January 2019 MOES (ECU, DOF) 0.05 grants to 18 provinces Reading readiness program developed, reading materials designed, printed and distributed to 127 communities, 15. 2 August 2019 MOES (ECU, RIES, DTTE) 1.50 master coaches and coaches recruited and trained, teachers in 127 communities trained Third verification of government SBG tranche disbursement to school bank accounts and school 16. 1 November 2019 MOES (ECU, DOF) and WB 0.00 compliance with the conditions for complementary GPE II SBGs Third annual payment of complementary school block 17. 1 grants disbursed to 8390 public primary schools and 2630 November 2019 MOES (ECU, DOF) 3.90 public kindergartens in the 88 priority districts Third annual disbursement of DESB operating costs grants 18. 1 January 2020 MOES (ECU, DOF) 0.15 to 148 districts Third annual disbursement of PESS operating costs grants 19. 1 January 2020 MOES (ECU, DOF) 0.05 to 18 provinces Reading readiness pilot ongoing implementation support, 20. 2 June 2020 MOES (ECU, RIES, DTTE) 1.30 coaching, monitoring and evaluation 21. 3 Project Management, Monitoring and Evaluation Ongoing MOES 0.37 Total new disbursements 14.65 Current disbursements 2.15 Total disbursement 16.80 27 The World Bank Second Global Partnership for Education (P149130) ANNEX III: RATIONALE FOR THE CHANGES IN THE RESULTS FRAMEWORK Revisions to the results framework Rationale / Comments / Explanatory notes Current version (PAD) Proposed changes Project Development Objective (PDO) Statement PDO Statement: The objective of the project is to support the Government of Lao PDR in Unchanged improving pre-primary and primary education quality. PDO Indicators The restructuring introduces this new PDO indicator to capture the anticipated reduction of school dropout rates in primary education as a result of the Project’s provision of significantly larger than planned school block grants under Component 1. One of the root causes for dropouts is the inability of parents to pay fees to the schools to compensate for the inadequate non-wage expenditure support for schools. The project will increase the availability of non-wage resources at the school level, including utilities, teaching and New indicator: Primary learning aids /materials, and non-capital improvements to the classroom environment. This education dropout rate investment is likely to reduce the need for informally collecting fees from parents. Noting that cost barriers only partially explain the reasons for dropping out of school, the midline and endline targets for this indicator employ conservative estimates for the GPE II impact on this indicator. The baseline is based on official government statistics for dropout rates while the estimates for midline and endline take into account the government targets set forth in the Education Sector Development Plan for the period 2016-2020, combined with trend analysis and conservative adjustment of the project targets. Percentage of schools that meet Revised to: the minimum quality of service Percentage of public primary The restructuring introduces the following modifications: delivery5 schools that meet the 5Minimum quality of service measured through a subset of the Lao PDR Education Quality Standards, as presented in the PAD. No change in the indicators planned under the restructuring. 28 The World Bank Second Global Partnership for Education (P149130) Revisions to the results framework Rationale / Comments / Explanatory notes Current version (PAD) Proposed changes minimum quality of service 1. Revises the definition of the indicator to clarify it measures the minimum quality of delivery service delivered by the public primary schools (excluding the 5 percent of private primary schools from the measurement). 2. Establishes the indicator’s baseline of 71 percent (baseline was omitted in the original results framework) to reflect the results from the SABER Service Delivery Baseline Survey, conducted in February-April 2017 on a national representative sample of primary schools in Lao PDR. 3. Changes frequency of reporting from “yearly” to “Baseline in YR2” (2017) and “endline in YR5” (2020) to reflect the two data collection points for the SABER Service Delivery Survey. 4. Changes “Data Source / Methodology” from “EMIS, FRS, DOI” to “SABER SD baseline and endline survey” to reflect the revised approach to measuring this PDO indicator. This indicator is marked for deletion from the results framework to reflect the proposed Percentage of Grade 2 students in replacement of the original reading development program for students in Grade 1 and 2 pilot schools who cannot read a Dropped under Part 2 with a reading development program for children aged 5 years in preprimary single word (male) preparatory groups and kindergartens. This indicator is marked for deletion from the results framework to reflect the proposed Percentage of Grade 2 students in replacement of the original reading development program for students in Grade 1 and 2 pilot schools that cannot read a Dropped under Part 2 with a reading development program for children aged 5 years in preprimary single word (female) preparatory groups and kindergartens. Percentage of Grade 1 and 2 This indicator is marked for deletion from the results framework to reflect the proposed teachers in pilot schools who show replacement of the original reading development program for students in Grade 1 and 2 improvement in teaching practices Dropped under Part 2 with a reading development program for children aged 5 years in preprimary (measured through objective preparatory groups and kindergartens. classroom observations) The restructuring introduces this new indicator to capture the outcome from the new New indicator: Percentage of reading development intervention for children aged 5 years in preprimary preparatory children in target classrooms groups and kindergartens, disaggregated by gender and by ethnicity - Lao Tai vs. non-Lao with awareness of print Tai speakers. It measures the gains in children’s abilities to handle print materials (books), 29 The World Bank Second Global Partnership for Education (P149130) Revisions to the results framework Rationale / Comments / Explanatory notes Current version (PAD) Proposed changes open them correctly, know the correct directionality of the written language, make a difference between a text and other graphic elements in a print material. This is a key indicator for measuring reading readiness among children of preschool age. The measurement is done through a direct assessment and will be administered as part of the impact evaluation endline survey. The baseline for this indicator (and the proposed disaggregation) reflects the midline results (December 2017) of the 5-year-old children in the communities under rigorous impact evaluation through the IDA funded ongoing ECE Project. The GPE II reading readiness program will be implemented in the same communities. The endline target for the non- Lao Tai speakers is set at 50 percent, compared to a baseline of 25 percent (improvements by 25 percentage point), or increasing twice the share of ethnic children with awareness of print achieved within the 9 months of the program implementation. While the end target for Lao Tai speaker is higher at 60 percent, the expected gain for Lao Tai speakers compared to non-Lao Tai speakers is more modest, with an increase by 15 percentage points. Even though the end target for Lao Tai is higher at 60 percent compared to 50 percent for ethnic students, the gap between the two groups will narrow towards the endline measurement. The restructuring introduces this new indicator to measure the share of children in the reading readiness program classrooms who cannot sound any of the letters of the Lao alphabet shown to them. The indicator is disaggregated by gender and ethnicity - Lao Tai vs. non-Lao Tai speakers. The measurement is done through a direct assessment and will be administered as part of the impact evaluation endline survey. The baseline for this indicator (and the proposed disaggregation) reflects the midline results (December 2017) of 5-year- old children in the communities under rigorous impact evaluation through the IDA funded New indicator: Percentage of 0 ongoing ECE Project. The GPE II reading readiness program will be implemented in the same scores to a letter sounding task communities. Since the indicator is negatively formulated, good progress will result in in the Lao alphabet reduction of the percentage of children who cannot sound a single letter of the Lao alphabet. Due to the current preprimary curriculum’s focus on learning letter names, rather than letter sounds, the baseline ECE project impact evaluation measurement of the letter sounding task has produced 100 percent 0 scores among Lao Tai and non-Lao Tai children alike. Since the starting point in terms of this ability is the same for both groups, it is expected that the exposure to the same content and dosage of the reading readiness program under GPE II for 9 months would produce the same gains in performance at the 30 The World Bank Second Global Partnership for Education (P149130) Revisions to the results framework Rationale / Comments / Explanatory notes Current version (PAD) Proposed changes endline measurement – from 100 percent 0 scores among Lao and non-Lao Tai speakers at baseline to 80 percent 0 scores at endline measurement. New indicator: Percentage of This new indicator measures the extent to which the project teachers deliver the reading teachers trained in the reading readiness program with precision and quality reflecting the original concept, design and readiness program who intentions. It captures the effectiveness of the training program and the coaching support implement the approach with through classroom observations based on rigorous methodology. high fidelity. Intermediate Results Indicators The restructuring introduces the following changes to the indicator: i. Refines the original formulation of the indicator definition by dropping the clarification in parenthesis and the female percentage, and introduces a subindicator for gender diaggregated measurement; ii. Establishes a frequency of measurement, which was omitted in the original results framework. iii. Revises the end target to reflect the significant demographic transition in Lao PDR, Revised to: Number of direct especially in the GPE II priority districts. The revised estimates for the end target are project beneficiaries based on latest EMIS data for 2015/2016 and 2016/2017. The project implementation period for the estimates covers the period 2017-2020 (school years 2015/2016 is not Modified measurement Direct project beneficiaries included due to no project activities). Estimates are based on the following parameters: frequency, midline and endline (number) of which female (%) (i) 500,000 primary students (grade 1 to 5) and children aged 5 in pre-primary groups in targets, and includes baseline schools in GPE II priority districts; (ii) 300,000 primary students (grade 1 to 5) and gender disaggregation that was children aged 5 in pre-primary groups in schools in non-priority districts to be included omitted in the original results in the final year of GPE II implementation; (iii) Grade 1 new entrants totaling 90,000 in framework for 2018/19 and 2019/2020 from priority districts (45,000 per year); (iv) 590 DESB staff trained in 2017/18; (v) 8,390 school principal trained in SBM in 2017/18 and 110 SBM master trainers trained and recruited (altogether 8,500); (vi) 17,000 VEDC members trained in 2017/18; (vii) 500 students receiving reading readiness program in 2019/20; 127 teachers trained in the new pedagogical approach to reading in 2018/19 and 2019/2020.. This makes a total of 916,717 beneficiaries. This number does not reflect the negative demographic trends. Considering the impact of shrinking population, 31 The World Bank Second Global Partnership for Education (P149130) Revisions to the results framework Rationale / Comments / Explanatory notes Current version (PAD) Proposed changes especially in the GPE II priority districts, this estimate is conservatively adjusted to 900,000. iv. Introduces gender disaggregated baseline, intermediate and endline targets that were omitted in the original results framework. Female/Male ratio at 50:50 percent, in line with most recent school and general census. Component 1 Revised to: Percentage of The restructuring introduces the following modifications: Percentage of schools in 80 public primary schools in the 1. Amends the indicator’s definition to reflect the increased number of priority districts districts with SDPs meeting GPE II priority 88 districts with from 80 to 88, and clarifies that the indicator measures only public primary schools. minimum quality6 school development plans 2. Establishes a baseline and midline intermediate targets (which were omitted in the meeting minimum quality original results framework) The restructuring introduces the following modifications: 1. Amends the indicator’s definition to clarify that the indicator measures only public Revised to: Percentage of primary schools. Percentage of schools receiving public primary schools 2. Establishes a baseline that was omitted in the original results framework to reflect the grants with budget information receiving grants with budget SABER Service Delivery Survey finding that 8.5 percent of the public primary schools publicly available to communities information publicly available publicize their school budget to the community; to communities 3. Changes the frequency of measurement, the data source, methodology and the responsibility for data collection to reflect the fact that this indicator will be measured through the baseline and endline SABER Service Delivery Survey. The restructuring introduces the following modifications: Percentage of supported village Modified measurement 1. Establishes a baseline to reflect the SABER Service Delivery Survey finding that 99.4 education development frequency methodology, percent of the schools meet more than twice per year (average frequency is 3.5 times) committees meeting at least twice responsibility, established 2. Changes the frequency of measurement, the data source, methodology and the per school year baseline responsibility for data collection to reflect the fact that this indicator will be measured through the baseline and endline SABER Service Delivery Survey. 6 No changes to the methodology for evaluation criteria for the school develeopment plans (it remains unmodified as described in the PAD). 32 The World Bank Second Global Partnership for Education (P149130) Revisions to the results framework Rationale / Comments / Explanatory notes Current version (PAD) Proposed changes The restructuring introduces the following modifications: 1. Amends the indicator’s definition and measurement unit from number to percentage to capture the extent to which VEDCs in the country have been covered by the national Revised to: Percentage of training on SBM, as opposed to the original definition that reports on the number of Number of VEDCs members village education development VEDC members trained; receiving capacity building on SBM committees receiving capacity 2. Drops the gender disaggregation to reflect the fact that the new indicator’s definition disaggregated by gender building on school based measures institutional coverage, rather than individuals; management 3. Changes the data source, methodology and the responsibility for data collection to reflect the structural changes of the Ministry of Education (DPPE is replaced by DOP with respect to data collection responsibilities). The restructuring introduces the following modifications: Revised to: Percentage of 1. Amends the measurement unit from number to percentage to safeguard against Number of school principals and public primary school whose demographic shifts and related school closures and to capture institutional coverage, head of schools receiving capacity principals and heads have rather than counting people. building on SBM, disaggregated by received capacity building on 2. Clarifies that measurement covers public primary schools only; gender school based management 3. Drops gender disaggregation to reflect the measurement of institutional coverage, rather than individuals. The restructuring introduces the following modifications: 1. Amends the measurement unit from number to percentage to safeguard against Revised to: Percentage of demographic shifts and related school closures and to capture institutional coverage. Number of schools receiving public primary schools 2. Adjust accordingly the targets from numbers to percentage, aiming at endline universal government block grants receiving government block coverage of 100 percent grants 3. Clarifies that measurement covers public primary schools only; 4. Establishes a precise baseline that reflects the SABER Service Delivery Survey finding that 96 percent of the public primary schools have received government block grants. The restructuring introduces the following modifications: Revised to: Percentage of 1. Amends the measurement unit from number to percentage to safeguard against Number of schools receiving public primary schools demographic shifts and related school closures and to capture institutional coverage. complementary GPE block grants receiving complementary GPE 2. Adjust accordingly the targets from numbers to percentage, aiming at endline universal II block grants coverage of 100 percent 33 The World Bank Second Global Partnership for Education (P149130) Revisions to the results framework Rationale / Comments / Explanatory notes Current version (PAD) Proposed changes 3. Clarifies that measurement covers public primary schools only. Number of districts with annual costed district education Unchanged development plans Component 2 Percentage of trained principals This indicator is marked for deletion from the results framework to reflect the proposed and PAs in pilot schools who replacement of the original reading development program for students in Grade 1 and 2 Dropped observe lessons and provide under GPE II Component 2 with a reading development program for children aged 5 years feedback to teachers in preprimary preparatory groups and kindergartens. Number of Grades 1 and 2 teachers This indicator is marked for deletion from the results framework to reflect the proposed trained as a part of project replacement of the original reading development program for students in Grade 1 and 2 Dropped interventions, disaggregated by under Part 2 with a reading development program for children aged 5 years in preprimary gender preparatory groups and kindergartens. This indicator is marked for deletion from the results framework to reflect the proposed Number of pilot schools provided replacement of the original reading development program for students in Grade 1 and 2 with kit of instructional materials Dropped under Part 2 with a reading development program for children aged 5 years in preprimary for Grades 1 and 2 preparatory groups and kindergartens. Number of pedagogical advisors This indicator is marked for deletion from the results framework to reflect the proposed and school principals trained as a replacement of the original reading development program for students in Grade 1 and 2 Dropped part of project interventions, under Part 2 with a reading development program for children aged 5 years in preprimary disaggregated by gender preparatory groups and kindergartens. New indicator: Number of This new indicator measures a key output from the proposed new reading development master coaches trained to program for children aged 5 years in preprimary preparatory groups and kindergartens. The develop instructional materials, baseline, intermediate and endline targets, the frequency of measurement, the train coaches and teachers, methodology and the responsible units are informed by the design of the reading readiness and supervise the program program and its coverage (127 communities). 34 The World Bank Second Global Partnership for Education (P149130) Revisions to the results framework Rationale / Comments / Explanatory notes Current version (PAD) Proposed changes implementation New indicator: Number of This new indicator measures a key output from the proposed new reading development Teacher Training Colleges’ program for children aged 5 years in preprimary preparatory groups and kindergartens. The faculty trained to coach and baseline, intermediate and endline targets, the frequency of measurement, the train teachers in applying the methodology and the responsible units are informed by the design of the reading readiness reading readiness approach. program and its coverage (127 communities). This new indicator measures a key output from the proposed new reading development New indicator: Number of program for children aged 5 years in preprimary preparatory groups and kindergartens. The teachers trained by coaches baseline, intermediate and endline targets, the frequency of measurement, the and master coaches in applying methodology and the responsible units are informed by the design of the reading readiness the reading readiness approach program and its coverage (127 communities). New indicator: Number of This new indicator measures a key output from the proposed new reading development classrooms implementing the program for children aged 5 years in preprimary preparatory groups and kindergartens. The reading readiness program baseline, intermediate and endline targets, the frequency of measurement, the provided with kit of methodology and the responsible units are informed by the design of the reading readiness instructional materials program and its coverage (127 communities). Evaluation framework for reading instruction in Lao language to ethnic students developed and Unchanged submitted to the Ministry of Education and Sports Component 3 Revised to: Percentage of The restructuring introduces the following modifications: Number of district officers trained trained District Education 1. Amends the indicator’s measurement unit from number to percentage to measure the in financial management, Sports Bureaus that use the extent to which DESB, as institutions, have been capacitated to use, and actually use the disaggregated by gender Financial Reporting System financial reporting system, instead of counting DESB participants in training sessions. 35 The World Bank Second Global Partnership for Education (P149130) Revisions to the results framework Rationale / Comments / Explanatory notes Current version (PAD) Proposed changes 2. Drops gender disaggregation to reflect the measurement of institutional coverage, as opposed to individuals. This indicator is marked for deletion. The activity is being implemented under the ECE project, with a dedicated pilot for child disability screening, the results from which will Disability related indicator piloted Dropped inform the potential long list of indicators to be considered for inclusion in the education for inclusion in sector statistics management information system (EMIS). This ECE project activity is being closely coordinated with UNICEF, tasked to lead the efforts for refining the EMIS. 36 The World Bank Second Global Partnership for Education (P149130) strikethrough – content marked for deletion bold underscore – proposed new content Project Development Objective Indicators Cumulative Target Values Responsibility Baseline Proposed Unit of YR1 YR2 YR3 YR4 YR5 End Data Source/ for Indicator Name July Frequency change Measure July July July July December Target Methodology Data 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Collection 5.2 Primary education dropout rate New Percentage 5.2 5.1 4.9 4.7 4.5 4.5 Yearly EMIS ECU, DOP (2015) Modified EMIS, FRS, frequency, Yearly DOI DESB and Percentage of schools that meet methodology, 71 Baseline SABER SD reported to the minimum quality of service Percentage N/A 71 N/A N/A 80 80 responsibility, (2017) YR2 baseline and ECU, Survey delivery7 established Endline YR5 endline firm baseline survey Percentage of Grade 2 students in Baseline pilot schools who cannot read a Dropped Percentage 15 YR1, end- RIES RIES single word (male) line YR4 Percentage of Grade 2 students in Baseline pilot schools that cannot read a Dropped Percentage 0 15 YR1, end- RIES RIES single word (female) line YR4 Percentage of Grade 1 and 2 teachers in pilot schools who Baseline YR1 show improvement in teaching Dropped Percentage 0 0 0 0 80 80 RIES RIES end-line YR4 practices (measured through objective classroom observations) Percentage of children in target 35 35 55 55 Baseline Direct ECU, IE classrooms with awareness of New Percentage F: 35 N/A N/A F: 35 N/A F: 55 F: 55 YR3 Endline Assessment Survey firm print8 LT: 45 LT: 45 LT: 60 LT: 60 YR5 7 Minimum quality of service measured through a subset of the Lao PDR Education Quality Standards, as presented in the PAD. No change in the indicators planned under the restructuring 8 Disaggregated by gender and ethnicity - Lao Tai (LT) vs. Non-Lao Tai (NLT) speakers The World Bank Second Global Partnership for Education (P149130) NLT: 25 NLT: 25 NLT: 50 NLT: 50 Impact (2018) Evaluation 100 100 80 80 Direct Percentage of 0 scores to a letter F: 100 F: 100 Baseline F: 80 F: 80 assessment ECU, IE sounding task in the Lao New Percentage LT: 100 N/A N/A LT: 100 N/A YR3 Endline LT: 80 LT: 80 Impact Survey firm alphabet9 NLT: 100 NLT: YR5 NLT: 80 NLT: 80 Evaluation (2018) 100 Percentage of teachers trained in ECU, DTT, Start, Mid & the reading readiness program 0 Classroom Master New Percentage N/A N/A 0 0 75 75 end points who implement the approach (2018) observation coaches / of program with high fidelity. Coaches Intermediate Results Indicators Cumulative Target Values Baselin Responsibil Proposed Unit of e YR1 YR5 Data Source/ ity for Indicator Name YR2 YR3 YR4 change Measure July July July Decemb End Target Frequency Methodology Data July July 2015 201 2017 2018 2019 er Collection 6 2020 Modified Number of direct project 1,200,000 Baseline Y1 endline, 0 0 500,000 900,000 beneficiaries10 (number) of Number N/A N/A 900,000 Midline Y3 EMIS, DOI ECU Established F:0 F:0 F:50 F:50 which female (%) F:50 Endline Y5 midline Component 1 Modified Percentage of public primary definition, schools in the GPE II priority 88 established Percenta DESB, DPPE, 80 districts with SDPs school 0 N/A N/A N/A 50 80 80 Yearly DESB baseline & ge ECU development plans meeting intermediate minimum quality11 targets 9 Disaggregated by gender and ethnicity - Lao Tai (LT) vs. Non-Lao Tai (NLT) speakers 10 Disaggregated by gender 11 No changes to the methodology for evaluation criteria for the school develeopment plans (remains unmodified as described in the PAD) The World Bank Second Global Partnership for Education (P149130) Modified DESB, DPPE, definition, Yearly Percentage of public primary ECU frequency, Baseline schools receiving grants with Percenta 8.5 SABER SD DESB methodology N/A 8.5 N/A N/A 80 80 YR2 budget information publicly ge (2017) baseline and ECU responsibility Endline available to communities endline established YR5 survey baseline Modified DESB, DPPE, Yearly Percentage of supported VEDCs frequency ECU Baseline village education development methodology Percenta 99.4 SABER SD DESB N/A 99.4 N/A N/A 100 100 YR2 committees meeting at least responsibility, ge (2017) baseline and ECU Endline twice per school year established endline YR5 baseline survey Modified Number Percentage of VEDCs definition, members receiving capacity measurement Number DESB, DPPE, DESB, 17,900 building on SBM school based unit, Percenta 0 0 60 90 100 100 Yearly ECU DPPE, DOP, 100 management disaggregated by responsibility ge GPE2 M&E ECU gender intermediate targets Number Percentage of public Modified primary schools whose principals definition, Number and head of schools have measurement 8,900 Percenta 0 0 60 90 100 100 Yearly GPE2 M&E MoES, DOP received capacity building on unit, 100 ge SBM school based management, intermediate disaggregated by gender targets Modified GPE2 M&E, Number Percentage of public definition, Number 8,900 8,90 8,90 Baseline 8,900 8,900 World Bank primary schools receiving measurement Percenta 96 N/A 0 0 8,900 YR2 MoES, DOF 96 100 verification government block grants unit, ge (2017) 96 100 Yearly mechanism established The World Bank Second Global Partnership for Education (P149130) baseline & intermediate targets Number Percentage of public Modified GPE2 M&E Number 5,50 primary schools receiving definition, 5,500 8,900 8,900 World Bank Percenta 0 0 0 0 Yearly MoES, DOF complementary GPE II block measurement 60 100 100 verification ge 60 grants unit mechanism Number of districts with annual Unchanged DESB GPE costed district education Number N/A N/A 50 88 148 148 Yearly DESB Project development plans M&E Component 2 Percentage of trained principals and PAs in pilot schools who observe Percenta PA in Dropped N/A 80 Yearly DESB lessons and provide feedback to ge DESB teachers Number of Grades 1 and 2 teachers trained as a part of project GPE2 Dropped Number 0 400 Yearly DTTE interventions, disaggregated by M&E gender Number of pilot schools provided with GPE2 kit of instructional materials for Dropped Number 0 80 Yearly RIES M&E Grades 1 and 2 Number of pedagogical advisors and school principals trained as a part of GPE2 Dropped Number 0 120 Yearly DTTE project interventions, disaggregated M&E by gender Number of master coaches trained to develop instructional materials, train GPE2 New Number 0 N/A N/A N/A 0 10 10 Yearly ECU, DTTE coaches and teachers, and supervise M&E the program implementation The World Bank Second Global Partnership for Education (P149130) Number of Teacher Training Colleges’ faculty trained to coach and train GPE2 New Number 0 N/A N/A N/A 0 24 24 Yearly ECU, DTTE teachers in applying the reading M&E readiness approach. Number of teachers trained by coaches and master coaches in GPE2 New Number 0 N/A N/A N/A 0 127 127 Yearly ECU, DTTE applying the reading readiness M&E approach Number of classrooms implementing Start, Mid the reading readiness program & end GPE2 New Number 0 N/A N/A N/A 0 127 127 ECU, DTTE provided with kit of instructional points of M&E materials program Evaluation framework for reading Unchanged instruction in Lao language to ethnic Framework GPE2 students developed and submitted to Yes / No No No No No No Yes Discrete ECU, RIES submitted M&E MoES the Ministry of Education and Sports Component 3 Modified Number Percentage of trained definition, District Education Sports Bureaus measurem Number that use the Financial Reporting ent unit, 148 148 148 148 Percenta 0 0 0 Yearly GPE2 M&E MoES, DOF System officers trained in financial established 0 100 100 100 ge management, disaggregated by baseline & gender intermedia te targets Disability related indicator piloted for Dropped Yes / No 0 No No No Yes Yearly EMIS EMIS inclusion in sector statistics The World Bank Second Global Partnership for Education (P149130) ANNEX IV. OVERVIEW OF THE CHANGES TO GPE II COMPONENT COSTS The restructuring envisions reallocations amounting to 32 percent of the grant, including 9% between components (6 percent (US$1 M) from Component 1 to Component 2, and 3 percent (US$ 0.5 M) from Component 3 to Component 2), and 23% within Component 1 (from SBM training to SBG) Original cost US$ (millions) Revised US$ (millions) Change US$ (millions) Component 1 12.7 11.7 -1 Component 2 2.5 4 +1.5 Component 3 1.6 1.1 - 0.5 COMPONENT 1 - CHANGES Activity/Subcomponent Original cost US$ (millions) Revised US$ (millions) Change US$ (millions) School Block Grants 5.04 8.95 + 3.9 SBM training 6.4 1.5 - 4.9 COMPONENT 2 – CHANGES Activity/Subcomponent Original cost US$ (millions) Revised US$ (millions) Change US$ (millions) Reading intervention 4 Dropped as a standalone study and integrated as an Studies to support 2.5 interim analytical work + 1.5 interventions for ethnic underpinning the reading students readiness program development COMPONENT 3 - CHANGES Activity/Subcomponent Original cost US$ (millions) Revised US$ (millions) Change US$ (millions) Project Management 1.6 1.1 -0.5 and M&E The World Bank Second Global Partnership for Education (P149130) ANNEX V. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE CHANGES TO GPE II COMPONENTS, ACTIVITIES AND COSTS Costs # Component, subcomponents, activities Restructuring Original (PAD and cost tabs) 1 Component 1 SBM and SBG (total cost) 11,699,950 12,700,000 Number of priority districts 88 80 Number of schools 5,760 5,342 Number of kindergartens 1,512 1,349 Number of children in kindergartens, 580,147 540,648 preprimary and primary schools Non-priority districts 60 68 Number of schools 2,853 3,271 Number of kindergartens 1,118 1,281 Number of children in kindergartens, 353,347 392,846 preprimary and primary schools 1.1 SBM training 1,500,000 6,378,000 1.1.1. SBM initial capacity building (costs) 1,350,000 6,378,000 Presentation materials replicating the main chapters of the 2 volumes of SBM guidelines. Presentation materials developed specifically for the training, Resource materials: 2 volumes of SBM guidelines and 1 volume of SBG guidelines Additional resource materials: 2 volumes of SBM guidelines and 1 volume of SBG guidelines. Training materials cover the following topics: SBM training content Education Sector Management; Education Presentations cover the following topics: Sector Development Plan, Sector Statistics, Education quality standards, Roles of Village Education Indicators at national, provincial, Education Development Committees, Self- district and village levels, Education quality Assessment, School development Plans, School standards, Roles of Provinces, roles of Districts, Block Grants Roles of Village Education Development Committees, Self-Assessment, School development Plans, School Block Grants The World Bank Second Global Partnership for Education (P149130) Costs # Component, subcomponents, activities Restructuring Original (PAD and cost tabs) Cascade training: 10 central master trainers Flat type, 110 master trainers train 36 provincial train 18 provincial trainers who train 296 officers, 592 district officers, 8600 school principals SBM training design district officials who train 8600 school and 17200 village education development principals and 17200 village education committee members development committee members 3 days in total 2 days training for school principals and district officers. 2 week break for school principals to draft school 10 days (lecturing, no specific deliverable SBM training duration development plan jointly with village education required from trainees) development committee members. Third day training for school principals and village education development committee members – review and discussion of SDPs Phase 1 – GPE II priority districts in year 1 of GPE implementation. SBM training coverage All districts, starting with GPE II priority districts Phase 2 – GPE II non-priority districts in the final year SBM training and recruitment of 110 SBM 1.1.2 100,000 NA trainers 1.1.3 SBM and SBG study tour 50,000 NA 1.2 SBG financial reporting system (FRS) 790,000 20,000 1.2.1 FRS training 670,000 20,000 PESS, DESB officers Combines training on SBG FRS, refresher training on PESS, DESB officers trained on FRS FRS training content and target SBM and SBG, instructions for DESB support visits to schools and use of 1.2.1 SBG FRS Software Upgrade 120,000 NA 1.3 SBGs 8,917,950 5,040,000 US$ per capita SBG for primary schools 3.75 2.50 The World Bank Second Global Partnership for Education (P149130) Costs # Component, subcomponents, activities Restructuring Original (PAD and cost tabs) US$ per capita SBG for preprimary classes 6.25 1.88 US$ per capita SBG for kindergartens 1.88 1.88 SBG for primary schools (including attached 1.3.1 7,273,594 4,650,000 preprimary groups) 1.3.1.1 priory districts (3 transfers) 6,118,654 3,612,500 1.3.1.2 non- priority (1 transfer) 1,154,940 1,037,500 1.3.2 SBG for kindergartens 517,804 390,000 1.3.2.1 priory districts (3 transfers) 396,045 270,000 1.3.2.2 non- priority (1 transfer) 121,759 120,000 1.3.3 Earmarked school grant (ESG) 1,126,552 NA (see point 1.5) Money channeled to schools for reimbursing DESB officers for 2 annual SBM and SBG support visits in ESG target and purpose case DESB officers visit them and provide the NA required support (converts 3/4 of the original DESB grants to ESG) PESS grants 18 provinces (US$ 3000 per 1.4 162,000 162,000 PESS per year) 1.5 DESB grants 330,000 1,100,000 DESB grants annual amount US$ 1,000 US$ 3,660 Three annual payments to 88 priority districts Three annual payment to 80 priority districts DESB grants timeline One annual payment to 60 non-priority districts One annual payment to 68 non-priority districts Block grant supporting general operating costs for GPE II related activities. DESB receive additional proceeds from the ESG only if they visit schools and DESB grants target and purpose Block grant supporting general operating costs provide the required support to schools and VEDCs on relevant topics, priority given to topics related to SBM, SDP and SBG Component 2 (Reading Development and 2 4,000,000 2,500,000 Assessment Capacity) The World Bank Second Global Partnership for Education (P149130) Costs # Component, subcomponents, activities Restructuring Original (PAD and cost tabs) Target schools/preschools 127 80 5-year olds in preprimary preparatory groups or Target children Students in Grades 1 and 2 kindergartens Local and International TA for RR 2.1 700,000 1,200,000 development and implementation 2.2 Impact evaluation data collection 150,000 (endline only) 250,000 (baseline and endline) 2.3 RR impact evaluation design NA (ECE project IE) 50,000 Direct implementation costs (printing materials, training of master coaches, 2.4 coaches, and teachers, continuous coaching 3,150,000 1,000,000 of teachers, classroom observations and process monitoring) Component 3 (Management M&E 3 1,100,000 1,600,000 Contingency) Sub-component Project Management (incl. 3.1 540,000 1,040,000 workshops) Sub-component M&E (including sector wide 3.2 560,000 560,000 monitoring) The World Bank Second Global Partnership for Education (P149130) ANNEX VI. OVERVIEW OF EDUCATION SECTOR FINANCING, PLANNING AND COORDINATION 1. Government expenditures on education Over the period 2010/11–2015/16 the actual budget allocation for the education sector has increased more than 2.3 times, while the share of the education sector expenditure in the total domestic primary budget of Lao PDR has been following a modest upward trend until the peak reached in 2015/2016: 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 Actual budget allocated for education in billion LAK 1,730 2,009 3,302 3,942 3,714 4,001 Actual share of education sector in the State Budget 13.2% 13.0% 14.5% 15.5% 14.6% 18,4% Since 2015, however, the fiscal situation in the country has been confronted with strong headwinds of lower than expected economic growth, slump in domestic revenue, growing public debt, further confounded by budgetary commitments around infrastructure mega-projects (such as the high-speed railroad connection with China). The period 2015-2017 have seen significant contraction of the overall public spending envelope. The GoL has recently revised its mid-term fiscal framework (MTFF) 2016-2020 to adapt to lower GDP growth forecast and domestic revenue projections. However, in this grave context of expenditure restraints, the GoL has managed to ring-fence the education budget, which explains its surge in proportion of domestic expenditure in 2015/16 (18.4 percent compared to the national target of 17 percent). The latest available actual budget execution data for 2015/16 (including Overseas Development Aid, or ODA) is presented in the table below, indicating that education expenditure has overpassed the target of 17% percent share of education budget in the total domestic primary budget. 2015/16 Actual Education Expenditure and Financing Gap 2015/18 ESDP financing requirements 4,416 Actual expenditure 4,000 Actual education share in domestic primary expenditure 18.4% Financing gap (billion LAK) 416 Financing gap (US$ million) 49 Source: Budget execution data (MOES), ESDP Financing Plan and revised MTFF 2016-2020 (MoF) Section V of the Education Sector Development Plan (ESDP) for 2016-2020, approved by the GoL in November 2015, provides a summary of the resources and financial requirements for implementation of the plan. In line with the adjusted MTFF, the ESDP projections for 2017-2020 are currently being updated based on the last mid-term macro fiscal projections. The ESDP financing gap is likely to increase, unless a number of ESDP policy targets are revised downward. The MOES, which has already started to work on this scenario, is taking important steps to increase budget efficiency, notably with the establishment of a Planning and Budgeting Committee as a platform for enhanced strategic allocation of resources, and a Teacher Allocation Committee to address the deployment inefficiencies burdening the education budget. 2. Non-wage education expenditures As highlighted above, the GoL has kept up to their promise of allocating at least 17 percent of the budget to the education sector in 2015/16. This percentage, however, hides a persistent discrepancy between the main categories of expenditure, and particularly the wage and non-wage funding in the sector. Regular and substantial public wage increases, decided outside the influence and control of MOES, have been continuously crowding out the required non-wage recurrent expenditures. In 2015/16, the wages represented about 75% of the education recurrent budget, or even more when The World Bank Second Global Partnership for Education (P149130) certain staff allowances are added to it. It is widely recognized that there are significant inefficiencies in the management of this part of the budget, in particular teacher deployment. In terms of wage budget for education in the total budget of the country, the data for 2015/16 shows that education sector received 23.1 percent of the national wage budget and 10 percent of the non-wage recurrent and investment budgets. The 2017 budget, however, have seen encouraging improvements across all budget indicators when compared to 2015/16. The share of wages in 2017 has increases only modestly by 0.4 percent to 23.5 percent, while the education non- wage recurrent to the total non-wage recurrent funding has leaped by more than 1.5 percent to 12.3 percent. The only shares that dropped were the investment expenditure and the domestic capital expenditures. The table below shows a comparison between 2015/16 and 2017 budget ratios: Approved budget 2015/16 2017 % change Education recurrent to primary recurrent budget 17.9% 19.2% 1.30% Education wages to total budget wages 23.1% 23.5% 0.40% Education non-wage recurrent to total non-wage recurrent 10.1% 12.3% 2.20% Education investment to total investment (including ODA) 9.0% 5.0% -4.00% Education domestic capital to total domestic capital 6.5% 3.1% -3.40% Education Chapter 62 to total Chapter 62 (operating costs) 10.8% 12.4% 1.60% Education Chapter 63 to total Chapter 63 (equipment) 7.5% 9.6% 2.10% Education Chapter 66 to total Chapter 66 (capital) 3.1% 4.7% 1.60% Source: Budgetary Policy Note, Annex V, 2017, EU, Lao PDR The main non-wage expenditure of non-tertiary education sub-sectors is channeled through per capita based school block grants (SBGs) that cover kindergartens, preprimary classrooms, primary, lower- and upper secondary, and technical and vocational schools. Ring-fencing non-wage expenditure for education against the backdrop of tightening fiscal space has been possible due to the agreement between the World Bank and the GoL on the targeted use of the proceeds from the energy sales from the World Bank financed and state-owned Nham Theun 2 (NT2) dam. The GoL has earmarked the proceeds for supporting key poverty reduction programs, including the non-wage school block grants (SBGs) for the education sector as per the table below: FY17 US$ M NT2 proceeds allocation across poverty reduction FY15/16 US$ M Allocation and Disbursement allocations programs Allocated Disbursed Undisbursed Allocated Public Investment Projects 18.8 15.8 2.95 18.1 School Block Grants 7.5 7.5 0 7.2 Free Maternal and Child Health Scheme 3.1 3.1 0 3.0 Health Equity Fund 8.3 1.8 6.5 22.1 Total Poverty Reduction Programs 18.9 12.4 6.5 32.4 Total 37.7 28.25 9.5 50.5 Source: World Bank and Ministry of Finance The NT2 earmarked allocations have ensured availability of stable funding sources for SBGs, which triggered the 2016 MOES resolution to significantly increase the per capita school block grant amounts, compared to the levels the GoL committed to at the time of GPE II approval in 2015. Effective 2016, the per capita SBGs have been increased as follows:  LAK 50,000 per child in kindergartens/crèches (compared to LAK 15,000 commitment at GPEII approval) The World Bank Second Global Partnership for Education (P149130)  LAK 50,000 per student in preprimary preparatory group (compared to LAK 15,000 commitment at GPEII approval)  LAK 70,000 per student in primary education (compared to LAK 20,000 commitment at GPEII approval)  LAK 100,000 per student in lower and upper secondary education and TVET Further, MOES has set mid-term targets for further increase of per capita SBGs amounts as follows:  LAK 100,000 per student in kindergartens/crèches, preprimary preparatory groups and primary education  LAK 150,000 per student in lower and upper secondary education and TVET The GPE II restructuring increases slightly the per capita amounts of the complementary SBGs to achieve the above targets of LAK 100,000 per student and child in primary/preprimary education. The GPEII baseline data collection conducted in February/March 2017 in a national representative sample of primary schools found that:  96% of the sample public schools received SBGs  The reported amounts were in the range between LAK 50,000 and LAK 80,000 in 2015/16, on average LAK 54,716 per student 3. Education funding by subsectors Over the five-year period 2010-2015 the total funding for education more than doubled (from LAK 1,596 billion to LAK 3,741 billion). Preschool funding rose from LAK 57 billion to LAK 178 billion, while funding for primary education increased from LAK 283 billion to LAK 1,404 billion. In terms of relative share of the subsectors within the total education funding, the total ECE subsector spending share increased modestly from 4 percent to 5 percent, while the total primary subsector expenditure rose from a relatively low 18 percent base in 2010 to 38 percent in 2015. No Sub sectors 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014 2014/2015 Recurrent Total Recurrent Total Recurrent Total Recurrent Total Recurrent Total Recurrent Total 1 ECE 55 57 28 31 36 56 94 114 99 101 109 178 2 Primary 279 283 316 659 342 732 1,093 1,183 1,142 1,247 1,066 1,404 3 Lower Secondary 106 118 146 215 173 273 451 497 467 547 489 504 4 Upper Secondary 106 123 146 250 154 302 383 463 398 436 405 425 5 TVET 26 33 37 196 47 163 85 208 99 185 101 104 6 Teacher Education 27 27 38 47 52 66 81 98 88 110 80 82 7 Higher Education 69 238 71 172 109 184 173 273 188 316 196 238 8 Non-Formal Education 5 6 12 30 12 29 20 26 21 37 14 18 9 Administration 169 711 166 210 179 252 891 935 436 922 564 787 10 Sport 0 0 0 0 6 10 4 14 0 50 1 1 Total 842 1,596 960 1,808 1,112 2,066 3,274 3,812 2,939 3,952 3,024 3,741 Source: MOES 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014 2014/2015 No Sub sectors Recurrent Total Recurrent Total Recurrent Total Recurrent Total Recurrent Total Recurrent Total 1 ECE 7% 4% 3% 2% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 4% 5% 2 Primary 33% 18% 33% 36% 31% 35% 33% 31% 39% 32% 35% 38% 3 Lower Secondary 13% 7% 15% 12% 16% 13% 14% 13% 16% 14% 16% 13% 4 Upper Secondary 13% 8% 15% 14% 14% 15% 12% 12% 14% 11% 13% 11% 5 TVET 3% 2% 4% 11% 4% 8% 3% 5% 3% 5% 3% 3% The World Bank Second Global Partnership for Education (P149130) 6 Teacher Education 3% 2% 4% 3% 5% 3% 2% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% 7 Higher Education 8% 15% 7% 10% 10% 9% 5% 7% 6% 8% 6% 6% 8 Non-Formal Education 1% 0% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 9 Administration 20% 45% 17% 12% 16% 12% 27% 25% 15% 23% 19% 21% 10 Sport 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Source: MOES 4. Education Sector Development Plan (ESDP) 2016-2020. The 2016-2020 ESDP was approved by the Lao PDR Education Sector Working Group (ESWG) in November 2015, even though there are no formal minutes of the meeting. The ESWG’s Focal Group 3 (in charge of development, monitoring and reporting of ESDP) has had regular meetings that have endorsed and recommended further refinement of the ESDP key performance indicators (KIP), it has reviewed, consulted and generally endorsed the Performance Monitoring Framework and the ESDP’s draft Annual Performance Monitoring Reports (APMRs), as well as the subsector APMRs.