ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF INVESTMENTS IN DISASTER RISK REDUCTION AND PREVENTION IN MEXICO: CASE STUDY OF TABASCO BETWEEN 2007 AND 2011 Oscar A. Ishizawa, Juan José Miranda, Miguel Paredes, Itzel de Haro and Adrián Pedrozo Edition and design funded by Authors: Oscar A. Ishizawa, Juan José Miranda, Miguel Paredes, Itzel de Haro and Adrián Pedrozo © 2017 The World Bank. 1818 H St. NW Washington, DC, 20433 USA Telephone number: 202-473-1000 Web site: www.worldbank.org This work has been carried out by World Bank staff, with external contributions. The opinions, interpretations, and conclusions expressed herein do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors or the countries represented by it. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data contained in this publication. The boundaries, colors, names, and any other information shown in the maps of this document do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the World Bank concerning the legal status of any territories, nor the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Rights and Permissions The material contained in this work is copyrighted. The World Bank encourages the dissemination of its knowledge, and authorizes the partial or total reproduction of this report for non-profit purposes, provided the source is cited. All queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to: World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax number: 202-522-2625; e-mail address: pubrights@worldbank.org. 3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY........................................................... 6 INTRODUCTION........................................................................8 BACKGROUND.......................................................................... 12 COMPREHENSIVE WATER PLAN OF TABASCO (PHIT) AND OTHER INVESTMENTS IN DRR BETWEEN 2008 AND 2010 ................................................................................14 INVESTMENTS IN RECONSTRUCTION FINANCED THROUGH THE MEXICAN FUND FOR NATURAL DISASTERS (FONDEN).............................................................. 16 METHODOLOGY FOR THE ASSESSMENT OF THE IMPACT OF DRR INVESTMENTS AND MEASURES....... 18 HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL CHARACTERIZATION OF THE 2007 AND 2010 EVENTS............................................ 19 AVOIDED COSTS CALCULATION......................................... 28 Results...................................................................................... 28 Primary Sector....................................................................... 30 Other Productive Sectors.................................................. 30 Social Sector........................................................................... 30 Housing.....................................................................................31 Infrastructure Sector............................................................31 Conclusions.............................................................................31 SYNTHETIC CONTROL.............................................................. 34 Sources and Handling of Information............................ 34 Results and Analysis............................................................ 34 CONCLUSIONS.........................................................................38 BIBLIOGRAPHY....................................................................... 40 ANNEXES.................................................................................. 44 ANNEX 1: INFORMATION FROM THE CENAPRED FOR THE ESTIMATION OF DAMAGES AND LOSSES............. 45 TABLE OF ANNEX 2: DEFINITIONS, DESCRIPTIONS AND EXAMPLES OF DAMAGES AND LOSSES........................ 49 Definition of damages......................................................... 49 Definition of losses............................................................... 50 CONTENTS ANNEX 3: GLOSSARY...........................................................52 5 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Even though over the last few years the Mexican In 2007, the adverse impact of floods amounted to 15% government has implemented a solid, innovative of the state´s GDP. This study shows that, even though policy of fiscal risk management in case of natural the 2010 floods were greater in terms of magnitude disasters, it is necessary for this policy to establish and intensity, thanks to the investments in DRR a greater resource allocation for structural and non- measures the impact associated to them was only 1% of structural measures for disaster risk reduction (DRR) Tabasco's GDP. and prevention. The case of Tabasco is an example of the cost-effectiveness of this type of measures The primary sector was the most benefited by the and convincingly shows the economic benefits of investments in DRR: over 30% of the total damages more comprehensive policies related to disaster risk and losses prevented in 2010 belong to this sector. In management. other words, the benefits derived from the investments in DRR were three times higher in the primary sector In the past ten years, Tabasco, the most populous than in the infrastructure sector. Tabasco is a state state in southeastern Mexico, has been affected by classified as of “high marginality” based on the fact that 33 hydrometeorological disasters (CENAPRED, 2013). the poorest 20% of the population receives only 5.2% The 2007 floods affected more than one million people, of the income (INEGI, 2014). This worsens in the primary and the estimated economic losses amounted to almost sector, where 19.5% of the state´s economically active USD 3 billion (CENAPRED, 2013). Motivated by the losses population works. In other words, the investments in and damages sustained in 2007, the Comprehensive DRR had more impact on the sector of the population Water Plan of Tabasco (PHIT, Plan Hídrico Integral de that most needs them. Tabasco) was designed and implemented. The PHIT is a program that articulates the implementation of short- The findings of this study are unambiguous: it is and long-term structural and non-structural measures to essential to invest more in DRR measures aimed at reduce flood risk mainly in urban areas, and particularly strengthening risk management—both corrective in the city of Villahermosa, the capital of the state. and prospective—in Mexico. Forty percent of the country´s territory is exposed to storms, hurricanes The DRR measures implemented after the 2007 events and floods (FONDEN, 2012), different types of hazards played a key role in reducing the damages and losses that can affect more than one quarter of the population caused by the 2010 floods. The hydrological similarity and their livelihood, as well as the ability to produce of the 2007 and 2010 floods, and the evidence that the goods and public services. Increasing investments in 2010 event had a greater magnitude, makes it possible structural and non-structural measures to reduce and to carry out a comparative analysis of the impact prevent risk implies addressing the direct causes that associated to both events and enables us to measure bring about hazardous conditions in the short and the benefits rendered by the investments in DRR medium terms. This, in turn, would enable the Mexican measures implemented after 2007. Government to improve planning and public investment tools and processes for risk management and to better This study shows that investments in DRR measures understand the close relation between risk management in Tabasco, mainly through the PHIT, helped to and development. prevent damages and losses amounting to around USD 2,375 billion (MXN 30 billion, approx.)1. In order to contextualize this amount, it equals to 7% of Tabasco's GDP and it is four times the budget allocated to public works in the state in 2014.2 Moreover, the benefits of the investments in DRR measures only in 2010 were three times greater than their cost. 1 For the purpose of this document, all figures in United States dollars (USD) have been calculated at the average exchange rate for 2010 according to the Banco de México, which equals to 12.62981 Mexican pesos (MXN) per US dollar. (Source: http://www.banxico.org.mx/ SieInternet/consultarDirectorioInternetAction.do?accion=consultarCuadro&idCuadro=CF373&locale=en, checked on August 1st 2017). 2 Information published by the state government in http://www.tabasco.gob.mx/content/se-ejerceran-este-ano-7-mil-314-millones-para- obras-publicas-en-tabasco-sotop 7 INTRODUCTION In the late nineties, the Mexican Government has and efficiency of the implementation of risk reduction implemented a fiscal risk management policy measures in the country. for natural disasters through the creation of the Mexican Fund for Natural Disasters (FONDEN). Due to its geographical location and hydrological Currently, the FONDEN has a wide range of financial characteristics, the state of Tabasco has been instruments and sector-specific insurance in place affected by 33 hydrological disasters, such as intense that aim at retaining and transferring risk. However, the rainfall events, floods and tropical storms, over the development of these financing mechanisms has not last ten years (CENAPRED, 2013). The similarity of the been accompanied by an increase of the investments hydrometeorological, hydrological and water-related in structural and non-structural measures of disaster characteristics of the floods of 2007 and 2010 enables risk reduction (DRR) and prevention. The non- the estimation of the impact of the DRR measures comprehensiveness of the DRR policies has a negative implemented between these two events in a unique way. impact on the reduction of the direct and indirect risk posed by these events and, therefore, on the country´s The methodology used to evaluate the impact of the economic growth. DRR measures on the damages and losses sustained in Tabasco has three stages. The first stage consists The case of Tabasco presents a unique opportunity of a quantitative comparison, from a hydrological to analyze the impact of the investments in DRR perspective, of the events that took place in 2007 and in Mexico. After the devastating floods in Tabasco 2010 in order to establish baselines that would enable between October and November 2007, the Mexican the assessment of the impact of the investments Federal Government decided to dramatically increase derived from the PHIT, as well as of other investments the investments in risk reduction and prevention in in DRR measures. Once it is determined that these two the state by implementing the Comprehensive Water events offer the best baseline for comparison in the Plan of Tabasco (PHIT). These investments were put to region of study, the damages and losses sustained in the test by the floods that occurred in the state again Tabasco during the 2007 events (before the PHIT was in the summer of 2010. The purpose of this report is implemented) are compared to those caused by the 2010 to assess the impact of said investments in the state events using the avoided cost method. This approach is of Tabasco between 2007 and 2010 and to analyze, based on the principle that an avoided cost represents on the basis of empirical evidence, the effectiveness a benefit (Dixon et al., 1994). In other words, the costs in 9 damages and losses that should have been sustained of the economy before and after the 2007 event in both due to the 2010 event—but were avoided thanks to the states. As can be seen, parallel trends between Tabasco PHIT implementation—can be considered as a benefit or and synthetic Tabasco make it possible to determine impact. These two processes are represented graphically whether DRR measures helped to maintain the in Figure 1. economic behavior that would have existed in Tabasco in the absence of adverse natural events. FIGURE 1 ESTIMATION OF THE IMPACT OF THE INVESTMENTS IN DRR The analysis confirms that the DRR measures THROUGH THE AVOIDED COST METHOD implemented after the 2007 floods played a key role in reducing the damages and losses sustained in the 2010 events. The avoided cost component in this Pre/post method with avoided costs methodology—which is based on the information in the CENAPRED annual reports—shows that the DRR 2007 Disaster 2010 Disaster measures helped to avoid damages and losses for DRR Measures USD 2,375,332,646 (MXN 30 billion). In other words, benefits reaped equal to 7% of the GDP of Tabasco and are three times higher than the implementation costs of the DRR measures. Through the synthetic control Time method, we found an effect in the same direction, but greater. While in 2007 the adverse impact of floods amounted to 15% of the GDP of Tabasco, in 2010, thanks Damages and losses - Damages and losses to the investments in DRR measures, the event-related impact was only 1% of the state´s GDP. The first section of this document presents background Impact information on the state of Tabasco, how fiscal risk management is handled upon natural disasters in Mexico, and an overview on the creation and implementation of the PHIT. The second section These two processes make it possible to determine, presents the methodology used for assessing the impact with a high level of certainty, that the difference of the investments in DRR measures implemented after in total damages and losses between both events 2007. We begin by making a comprehensive comparison is attributable to the DRR measures implemented of the 2007 and 2010 events, and by establishing the between 2007 and 2010. The avoided cost calculation similarity of the hydrometeorological, hydrological leads to an interesting result: the PHIT impact was and water-related characteristics of both events. The greater in the agricultural sector. In order to evaluate above leads to the conclusion that the 2007 and 2010 the robustness of this finding and to make this study more sound in terms of methodology, the synthetic FIGURE 2 ESTIMATION OF THE IMPACT OF THE INVESTMENTS IN DRR control method was used so as to see the performance THROUGH THE SYNTHETIC CONTROL METHOD of Tabasco if the events had not taken place and also to determine how the investments in DRR contributed to Synthetic control method mitigating their impact. This method makes it possible to compare the evolution of a variable of interest between 2007 2010 the state of Tabasco and a “synthetic or fictitious” state Disaster Disaster 2000 (Abadie and Gardezabal, 2003, Abadie et al., 2010). This methodology enables the simulation of the DRR Time Measures behavior of a “synthetic” Tabasco, which was created statistically based on the characteristics of a group of Impact states that did not sustain any natural disasters and where no DRR measures were taken during the period under study. Thus, we can compare the behavior of both entities before and after the events and determine Tabasco the effects the PHIT and other investments had on Synthetic Tabasco our variable of interest. This method is represented in Figure 2, which also shows a comparison of the evolution 10 | MX Technical Assistance on Comprehensive Risk Management floods are comparable and that the 2007 event was less intense and also smaller than the 2010 event. Then, the avoided cost methodology and the main results of this analysis are presented and, lastly, the synthetic control methodology and its results are introduced. The third section analyzes the advantages of both methods, the implications of the results obtained and the potential of investments in DRR as a cost-effective measure to mitigate the impact of adverse weather events. 11 BACKGROUND There is little empirical evidence evaluating the impact of the studies on the impact of floods in Tabasco are not of investments related to DRR measures in Mexico. This focused on assessing disaster prevention policies3, but is partly explained by the difficulty in finding scenarios on showing the effectiveness of specific technologies where a comparison of this type of measures can be (Pedrozo-Acuña et al., 2012; Ramos et al., 2009; Santos- made from the time frame perspective. Therefore, most Reyes et al., 2010; Santos-Reyes and Beard, 2010). TABASCO FIGURE 3 GEOGRAPHICAL LOCATION OF TABASCO Consisting of 17 municipalities, Tabasco is the most populous state in Southeastern Mexico (see Figure 3). In 2007, Tabasco had a population of 2,174,000 people, 8,900 km of roads and a total GDP of USD 20,515,114,638 (MXN 295,102 million). Two percent of the state´s GDP corresponds to the primary sector; 59% to the secondary sector (composed mainly of oil production); and 30% to the tertiary sector (INEGI, 2013). Source: Prepared by the authors 3 Only one study has been conducted on the effect of investments on risk reduction and prevention in Mexico. Said study was conducted by the World Bank in 2010 and consisted of a comparative analysis of the historic behavior of expenditures related to reconstruction and prevention measures in Colombia, Indonesia, Nepal and Mexico (De la Fuente, 2010), but it does not consider the specific case of Tabasco nor does it make a distinction between types of natural disasters. 13 COMPREHENSIVE WATER PLAN OF TABASCO (PHIT) AND OTHER INVESTMENTS IN DRR BETWEEN 2008 AND 2010 The 2007 flood event in Tabasco affected more than One of the most remarkable outcomes of the PHIT one million people, and the estimated economic losses was the implementation of territorial management in the state amounted to approximately USD 3 billion and risk reduction measures, aimed at preventing the (CENAPRED, 2012). This makes the 2007 floods the establishment of human settlements in high-risk areas greatest disaster over the past fifty years in Mexico, (CONAGUA, 2012). both in extent and in affected population (CENAPRED, 2008; ECLAC, 2008, 2012; CONAGUA, 2012). As a result Between 2008 and 2010, the Federal Government of the losses and damages caused by such events, invested a total amount of USD 753,613,871 the National Water Commission (CONAGUA), the (MXN 9,518 million) in DRR measures in Tabasco, National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM) which is equivalent to 2.18% of the state's GDP in and the Government of the State of Tabasco developed 2010. About 84% of these resources were invested the Comprehensive Water Plan of Tabasco (PHIT) in infrastructure for the protection of the population (CONAGUA, 2012). and productive areas (amounting to 56% of the overall investment), as well as in the reconstruction of protective The PHIT was launched in 2008 with the objective of hydraulic infrastructure (approximately 27% of the generating a set of solutions that would guarantee the overall investment). In turn, only 6.74% of the total population’s safety, the performance and continuity of investment was allocated to the PHIT and to other economic activities and the balance of the ecosystems comprehensive water plans, which equals USD 50,832,119 in the occurrence of this type of events. As a result, a (MXN 642 million). The remaining 11% was allocated series of structural measures (physical investments, to the construction of tunnels for the Grijalva river, to such as embankments and reinforcements) and non- compensatory payments for the regularization of plots of structural measures (non-engineering measures, land, to the restoration of tourism-related infrastructure, such as workshops, trainings, development of early and to the rehabilitation of the basin Frontera Sur as well warning systems, and risk mapping, among others) as of several rural paths and roads (see Figure 4).4 were implemented, grouped into urgent and medium- term actions, so as to reduce flood risk mainly in the Since most of these investments (84%) were destined urban area of Villahermosa (capital city of the state). to the protection of population centers and of primary FIGURE 4 OVERALL FEDERAL INVESTMENT IN DRR MEASURES BETWEEN 2008 AND 2010 (IN MILLIONS OF MXN AS OF 2010) Rehabilitation and retrofitting in the irrigation districts of the basin Frontera Sur Reconstruction of roads and rural paths infrastructure Compensatory payments for the regularization of plots of land in hydraulic works Restoration of tourism-related infrastructure in Tabasco Comprehensive Water Plan of Tabasco Comprehensive water plans Diversion tunnels for the river Grijalva Reconstruction of protective hydraulic infrastructure Protection infrastructure for population centers and productive areas Source: World Bank, 2014 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 4 It is worth mentioning that it was not possible to obtain information about investments in DRR measures at state level; therefore, the mentioned amounts correspond to a percentage of the overall amount invested in DRR measures. 14 | MX Technical Assistance on Comprehensive Risk Management production activity areas, it is to be expected that the reduction of damages and losses would be greater in these sectors compared to those that received less investments. In other words, one of our hypotheses is that the PHIT had a greater impact on the primary sector than on the infrastructure sector (roads, water and sanitation systems, hydraulic works, power supply networks, etc.). 15 INVESTMENTS IN RECONSTRUCTION FINANCED THROUGH THE MEXICAN FUND FOR NATURAL DISASTERS (FONDEN) The role that other mechanisms—other than the As showed in Table 1, between 2008 and 2010, there PHIT implementation—have had in financing was a decrease in the resources authorized through the public infrastructure investment activities after FONDEN for the reconstruction of public infrastructure the occurrence of a disaster is worthy of mention. (federal and state roads, school and healthcare The Mexican Fund for Natural Disasters (FONDEN), infrastructure, and housing). Between 2007 and 2010, introduced in 1999, is the financial vehicle of the the investment in hydraulic infrastructure went down Mexican Federal Government aimed at catastrophic risk from USD 108,315,169 (MXN 1,368 million) to only management (FONDEN, 2012). In the case of Tabasco, USD 58,195,650 (MXN 735 million), which represents the FONDEN has been an important source of resources a cut of almost 50%. However, in absolute terms, 2010 for the reconstruction of infrastructure after the investments exceeded those of 2007 because the disasters. A more detailed analysis of the reconstruction- CONAGUA allocated extraordinary financial resources related expenditures incurred through the FONDEN to the reconstruction of natural embankments and would allow us to determine whether DRR measures to the implementation of other measures aimed at have had any impact on reducing reconstruction costs. restoring the natural course of the rivers in Tabasco. TABLE 1 INVESTMENTS MADE BY THE FONDEN IN TABASCO In millions of MXN as of 2010 Sector Level 2007 Total 2010 Total 2007 Total 2010 Total Roads Federal 443.7 386.9 81.4 167.5 State 1,585.80 665.4 441.6 1,179.10 Municipality ‐ 28 ‐ ‐ Rivers and watercourses State 2.8 ‐ ‐ ‐ Sports State ‐ ‐ ‐ 0.8 Education Federal 50.7 7.4 3.9 11.1 State 13.3 1.3 0.8 4.6 Municipality 0.4 ‐ ‐ ‐ Hydro-agricultural Federal ‐ ‐ ‐ 3,279.10 Hydraulic Federal 1,255.50 ‐ 334.8 ‐ State 43.1 94.5 70.6 735.7 Municipality 69.5 17.6 ‐ - Historic monuments State 4.1 ‐ ‐ ‐ Naval Federal ‐ ‐ 3.9 ‐ Healthcare State 19.3 1.2 ‐ 3.7 Health insurance State 4.8 ‐ ‐ ‐ Housing State 243.2 ‐ 16.5 169.5 TOTAL 3,736 1,202 954 5,551 Source: Prepared by the authors based on information from the FONDEN 16 | MX Technical Assistance on Comprehensive Risk Management Through the FONDEN, around USD 906,031,049 (MXN 11,433 million) were invested between 2007 and 2010 in Tabasco in diverse sectors, as detailed in Table 1. This amount represents around 2.61% of the GDP of Tabasco in 2010. Most of this investment was used for the reconstruction of state roads and of federal and state hydraulic and hydro-agricultural infrastructure. 17 METHODOLOGY FOR THE ASSESSMENT OF THE IMPACT OF DRR INVESTMENTS AND MEASURES HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL CHARACTERIZATION OF THE 2007 AND 2010 EVENTS As mentioned in the introduction, the purpose of the capital city (Villahermosa) and of the most important this section is to make a quantitative comparison, dam in the state, Peñitas. from a hydrological perspective, of the events that took place in 2007 and 2010 in order to establish So as to determine the actual comparability of these baselines that make it possible to assess the impact events, several variables were evaluated, such as daily of the investments derived from the PHIT. These two and accumulated rainfall, runoff and flow rate5 of the events will be analyzed from the hydrometeorological rivers, as well as geographical flood fields. This analysis (rainfall) and hydrological (runoff and river discharge) was conducted for the above-mentioned areas and for perspectives, and also considering the spatial Peñitas dam. The importance of this dam lies in the distribution of the event. In turn, that analysis will be the fact that it is located upstream Villahermosa, therefore, basis for establishing two comparable scenarios and will it significantly contributes to the water load of the shed light on the size and implications that each event adjacent basins and to the extent of the floods. has for the purpose of this study. The starting point for the review of the Tabasco consists of three hydrological regions. The hydrometeorological forcing in each region is the first one comprises the eastern part of the state and comparison of the accumulated rainfall curve (mass includes the Tonalá river region on the border with the curve) of each of the years under analysis during the state of Veracruz. The second one covers the area of flooding season (June-December). Figure 6 shows the Bajo Grijalva, located at the central area of the state, rainfall mass curve recorded during the flooding season and the third one is the region of the river Usumacinta, (rainy season) for the three hydrological regions under located at the western part of the state. Figure 5 shows study in different years. In all three regions, the volumes the three regions, as well as the geographical location of of annual accumulated rainfall recorded show certain 5 According to the CONAGUA, flow rate (or discharge) is defined as “the quantity or volume of water that runs through the cross section of a conduit, waterway or channel in a unit of time; it is measured in cubic meters per second (m3/s); it can also be expressed in liters per second, per minute, etc.”. 19 FIGURE 5 HYDROLOGICAL SUBREGIONS OF THE STATE OF TABASCO Gulf of Mexico Gulf of Mexico SYMBOLS Pacific Usumacinta Hydrometric stations Ocean Tonala Catchment basins Grijalva State limit Source: Prepared by the authors natural variability. However, the accumulated rainfall cases). On the other hand, in 2008 more rainfall was value at the end of each is around the same range. recorded for the whole state compared to 2007. This For example, in the area of river Tonalá, between 2,000 behavior is observed even as from the first 150 days of and 2,500 mm/year; in Bajo Grijalva, between 1,500 and the year, i.e. during the dry season. 2,500 mm/year; and in the basin of river Usumacinta, between 1,500 and 2,200 mm/year. In 2010, the three regions presented an increased volume of rainfall compared to 2007, especially at the One way of comparing the accumulated rainfall beginning of the season (days 150 to 250). Despite this, between 2007 and the rest of the years is by the final value of the accumulated rainfall difference subtracting the rainfall mass curve of the 2007 event between 2010 and 2007 (red line; day 365) was less than from the rainfall mass curves of 2008 to 2011. This 200 mm of rain in all three cases. This suggests that, operation makes it possible to identify which of the although in 2010 rainfall volume was higher than in 2007, cycles was more similar—from the hydrological point of rainfall levels were in the same range statewide, thus it is view—to the 2007 cycle. The products of said operation possible to consider the events had a similar magnitude. are presented graphically in Figure 7, where the three panels show the results throughout the year for the The 2011 accumulated rainfall is the most similar to three hydrological areas. In all cases, the blue line that of 2007. The difference between both years in the represents the results for 2008; the black line, those three hydrological regions is small, and it is important for 2009; the red line, those for 2010; and the green line, to mention that, in the area of river Usumacinta, the those for 2011. difference is negative (the volume of water recorded was smaller in 2011 compared to 2007). In conclusion, the These graphs show that, in the three regions under graphs show that both 2010 and 2011 were remarkably study, it rained less—in volume of water—in 2009 than similar to 2007 as regards rainfall. in 2007 (the black line is always negative in all three 20 | MX Technical Assistance on Comprehensive Risk Management FIGURE 6 MASS CURVES OF ACCUMULATED RAINFALL PER DAY FOR THE area of the state, where 80% of Tabasco's population THREE HYDROLOGICAL REGIONS OF TABASCO is concentrated, while the 2011 event mainly affected the southeast of the state, so the latter can hardly be compared to the area of influence of the 2007 event. Bajo Grijalva, center of Tabasco From the hydrological point of view, the 2007 and 2010 3,000 events are comparable, but how similar were these two events? The difference in the magnitude of the 2,500 event has very important implications for the analysis 2,000 as well as for obtaining robust results. In this sense, mm/day our interpretation of the impact of the investments in 1,500 2010 Mass curve DRR in the state of Tabasco depends on the extent and 1,000 2007 Mass curve intensity of the 2007 and 2010 events. 2008 Mass curve 500 2009 Mass curve The ideal scenario for the estimation of the impact of 0 2011 Mass curve DRR measures is that both disasters had been identical from the hydrometeorological perspective, since any difference in costs and losses would be attributable to the DRR measures. A second scenario is that the 2007 Tonalá, east of Tabasco event had a greater magnitude than the 2010 event. In this case, it would be possible to overestimate any 3,000 benefits rendered by the DRR measures, since part of the assumed benefits could be explained by the 2,500 smaller extent of the event and not by the measures 2,000 implemented. A third possible scenario is that the 2007 mm/day event had been smaller than the 2010 event. In this 1,500 case, the benefits could be underestimated instead. 2010 Mass curve 1,000 2007 Mass curve Even when the last scenario is still somewhat biased, 2008 Mass curve any conclusions based on these circumstances would 500 represent a conservative but intelligible and conclusive 2009 Mass curve 0 2011 Mass curve position regarding the effect of the investments in DRR. In order to understand which is the actual scenario, it is necessary to carry out a deeper analysis so as Usumacinta, west of Tabasco to establish the relative magnitude of each event. In order to compare the 2007 and 2010 events, the 3,000 accumulated rainfall (mass curves) and flow rate results for several rivers of the state were analyzed, as well as 2,500 the hyetographs (daily rainfall) for areas near Peñitas, 2,000 Villahermosa-Frontera and Bajo Grijalva in the state of mm/day Tabasco. These data were obtained from the CONAGUA 1,500 2010 Mass curve hydrometric stations and from the NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). 1,000 2007 Mass curve 2008 Mass curve 500 2009 Mass curve According to the rainfall hyetographs prepared for the areas of Villahermosa-Frontera, Bajo Grijalva and 0 2011 Mass curve Peñitas-Villahermosa dam, time distribution of rainfall in 2007 and 2010 was very similar, since in both years rainfall concentrated mainly in the central area of the state (see Figure 9). Even when hyetographs seem to On a second analysis, it is possible to observe that the indicate that the 2007 event had a greater magnitude comparison between the 2007 and 2010 events is more due to the presence of higher rainfall peaks, Figure 10 appropriate than the one between the 2007 and 2011 shows the opposite. This figure shows a comparison events. According to the rainfall fields shown in Figure 8, between the accumulated rainfall recorded during 2007 the 2007 and 2010 events show a significant overlapping: and 2010 in the area of Bajo Grijalva. Upon applying a both events affected Villahermosa and the central linear adjustment to the data, we can conclude that the 21 FIGURE 7 ACCUMULATED RAINFALL DIFFERENCES FOR THE REGIONS UF TONALÁ, BAJO GRIJALVA AND USUMACINTA Western area: Tonalá 1,000 800 600 400 mm 200 0 2008-2007 -200 2009-2007 2010-2007 -400 2011-2007 -600 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 Consecutive days Central area: Grijalva 1,000 800 600 400 200 mm 0 -200 2008-2007 -400 2009-2007 2010-2007 -600 2011-2007 -800 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 Consecutive days Eastern area: Usumacinta 400 200 0 mm -200 2008-2007 -400 2009-2007 2010-2007 -600 2011-2007 -800 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 Consecutive days Source: Prepared by the authors 22 | MX Technical Assistance on Comprehensive Risk Management FIGURE 8 RAINFALL FIELDS COMPARISON FOR THE YEARS 2007, 2010 AND 2011 Source: Prepared by the authors based on information from the CONAGUA rainfall volume in the 2010 event was 17% higher than in 2010 it was higher for the aquifer. In conclusion, it is that of 2007. possible to assert that, in the basin of river Usumacinta (located to the east of the state), soil saturation was A highly relevant hydrological parameter is the baseflow higher in 2010 than in 2007. of the basin. This parameter makes it possible to determine the variation of water storage in the aquifer The results for the basin of river La Sierra are shown over time. In order to estimate its value, it is necessary in Figure 12. The measurements for 2010 are in red, and to have hydrometric data of the flow rate measured in the ones for 2007 are in blue. Again, we can see that the the river, as well as of its drainage area. In the case of volume of water that flowed through this river was higher Tabasco, and for the hydrological regions defined in this in 2010. Naturally, the baseflow (lower panel) was also study, values from two hydrometric stations located in higher during 2010, during which year it reached its peak the basins of river Usumacinta (Salto del Agua station) on day 250. These results confirm that, like rainfall, river and river La Sierra (Oxolotlán station) were used. Both flow rate and baseflow conditions were more adverse in hydrometric stations were installed by the CONAGUA. 2010 than in 2007. The results for the basin of river Usumacinta are shown Using information from other CONAGUA hydrometric in Figure 11. The red lines indicate the results for 2010, stations, a comparison of the flow rates recorded in the and the blue lines indicate the ones of 2007. The upper rivers of the region of Bajo Grijalva, in the central area panel shows the measurements of the daily mean flow of the state, was also carried out. The rivers included rate recorded in Salto del Agua hydrometric station and in this analysis were Carrizal, Samaria, Grijalva and La shows that the water volume of this river throughout Sierra. Figure 13 shows the runoff mass curve, which 2010 was higher than in 2007. The lower panel depicts indicates that, in all the rivers located in the area where the estimated baseflow for this basin and shows that PHIT works were carried out, the flow rate that passed 23 FIGURE 9 RAINFALL HYETOGRAPHS FOR 2007 AND 2010 Peñitas-Villahermosa hyetograph 2007 Peñitas-Villahermosa hyetograph 2010 150 90 mm/day 100 60 50 30 0 0 Villahermosa-Frontera hyetograph Villahermosa-Frontera hyetograph 150 100 90 mm/day 60 50 30 0 0 Bajo Grijalva hyetograph Bajo Grijalva hyetograph 150 100 90 mm/day 60 50 30 0 0 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Prepared by the authors based on data from the TRMM, NASA through these tributaries was approximately 50% higher variable that must be considered in the efflux towards in 2010 than the one recorded during the 2007 event. the Tabasco flatlands. Figure 15 shows the maximum water extraction of Peñitas hydroelectric power plant Finally, it is important to consider one of the during the hydrometeorological events of 1999, 2007, anthropogenic factors that has contributed to 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011. This figure shows that the altering the natural river flows in the state of Tabasco: maximum extraction volumes were approximately the construction of the system of dams known as 25% higher in 2010 than in 2007, which leads to the “Complejo Hidroeléctrico del Grijalva” (Hydroelectric conclusion that the damages and losses associated Power Plant Complex of River Grijalva). This complex to water discharge in the system of rivers leading to comprises dams Netzahualcóyotl (Malpaso), Belisario Villahermosa should have been greater in 2010. Domínguez (La Angostura), Ing. Manuel Moreno Torres (Chicoasén) and Ángel Albino Corzo (Peñitas), with a Based on the comparison of the hydrometeorological capacity of 1,485 million m3 (Navarro and Toledo, 2008). characteristics of the 2007 and 2010 events, and on the Figure 14 shows a diagram of this complex. analysis of the operation of the Peñitas dam in those years two conclusions can be drawn. The first one is Peñitas dam proves to be very significant for our that the 2007 and 2010 floods are comparable, and the analysis, since the discharge spilled in the overflow second one, that the 2007 event was less intense and works of this dam—the last one in the system—is a also smaller than the 2010 event. This rules out any risk 24 | MX Technical Assistance on Comprehensive Risk Management of overestimating the impact of DRR measures and, on FIGURE 11 BASEFLOW COMPARISON IN SALTO DEL AGUA the contrary, leads to expect a conservative estimation HYDROMETRIC STATION, IN THE BASIN OF RIVER of it. In other words, ceteris paribus, the damages and USUMACINTA (EASTERN AREA) losses caused by the 2010 floods should be greater than those sustained in 2007 (see Figure 16). 2007 2010 It is precisely the combination of these two findings 6 2,000 what enables making a comparative analysis of the impact related to these events by assessing 1,500 Flow rate (m3/s) the damages and losses before and after the implementation of the PHIT. 1000 500 FIGURE 10 COMPARISON OF ACCUMULATED RAINFALL IN 2010 AND 2007 IN THE AREA OF BAJO GRIJALVA 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 2,500 800 y = 1.171*x - 106.2 600 2,000 Baseflow (mm) 400 200 2010 rainfall (mm) 1,500 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 1,000 Consecutive days Source: Prepared by the authors 500 0 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 2007 rainfall (mm) Source: Prepared by the authors 6 The hydrometeorological and operational similarity of both events, and the evidence that the 2010 event had a greater magnitude. 25 FIGURE 12 BASEFLOW COMPARISON IN OXOLOTLÁN HYDROMETRIC STATION, IN THE BASIN OF RIVER LA SIERRA (CENTRAL AREA) 2007 2010 2,000 800 1,500 600 Flow rate (m3/s) Flow rate (mm) 1,000 400 500 200 0 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Consecutive days Consecutive days Source: Prepared by the authors FIGURE 13 RUNOFF MASS CURVES IN THE RIVER SYSTEM ADJACENT TO THE CITY OF VILLAHERMOSA, TABASCO, IN 2007 AND 2010 Mass curves of river Carrizal Mass curves of river Samaria 10,000 25,000 Accumulated volumes (millions of m3) Accumulated volumes (millions of m3) 9,318.8 9,000 8,495.7 20,956.5 8,000 20,000 19,778.6 7,000 7,079.9 16,868.2 6,000 15,000 5,000 4,855.3 4,487.9 11,341.8 4,000 4,128.1 10,000 3,376.8 3,000 2,275.6 2,282.7 5,716.5 5,720.8 5,862.1 2,000 5,000 4,793.6 1,538.3 1,000 2007 2,982.1 2007 2,007 0 2010 0 2010 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Mass curves of river Grijalva-Villahermosa Mass curves of river La Sierra 8,000 Accumulated volumes (millions of m3) Accumulated volumes (millions of m3) 9,469.4 8,756.3 7,000 7,062.1 7,689.3 6,356.3 6,000 5,811.1 5,000 5,682.6 5,546.6 5,768.9 4,539.2 4,350 4,594.7 4,000 3,000 3,102.4 3,135.5 3,396.1 2,649.1 2,000 1,574.6 1,512.2 2007 1,000 2007 677 679.8 2010 0 2010 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Prepared by the authors based on information from the CONAGUA 26 | MX Technical Assistance on Comprehensive Risk Management FIGURE 14 HYDROLOGICAL SYSTEM OF RIVER GRIJALVA La Angostura Dam Dr. Belisario Dominguez Plant Crest elevation 543.00 MNWL elevation 523.6 Chicoasen Dam Ing. Manuel Moreno T. Plant Corona el. 405.00 MNWL elevation 392.00 Netzahualcoyotl Dam Republic of Guatemala Malpaso Plant Crest elevation 192.00 MNWL elevation 176.00 Peñitas Dam Peñitas Plant Crest elevation 98.00 Mexico MNWL elevation 87.40 Gulf of Mexico Installed capacity in the system: 3,900 MW Mean annual generation: 13,600 GWh Source: Federal Electricity Commission (CFE) of Mexico FIGURE 15 OVERFLOW SPILLWAY DISCHARGE OF ‘PEÑITAS FIGURE 16 SCENARIOS FOR COMPARING THE 2007 AND 2010 EVENTS HYDROELECTRIC POWER PLANT 3,000 2007 Event = 2010 Ideal comparison 2,500 2,450 Peñitas extraction m3/s 2,323 2,000 2,000 2007 Event = 2010 Overestimation of benefits 1,500 1,205 1,100 1,000 795 2007 Event = 2010 Conservative comparison 03/nov/2009 29/oct/2007 23/oct/1999 23/oct/2010 23/oct/2011 25/sep/2008 500 0 Source: Prepared by the authors 1999 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: Prepared by the authors 27 AVOIDED COSTS CALCULATION Once the baseline between the 2007 and 2010 events a. Direct damages: Those damages that affect has been established, the next step is to estimate the heritage and assets (called damages by the impact or benefit of the DRR measures implemented CENAPRED). after the 2007 event by calculating the avoided costs in b. Indirect damages: Those damages that affect the 2010 thanks to said measures. In other words, the costs production workflows of goods and services (called that would have been incurred for the damages and losses by the CENAPRED). losses that should have been produced due to the 2010 c. Damages with macroeconomic effects: This kind event, but that were avoided thanks to the investment in of damages are not taken into consideration in the DRR measures, are considered as a benefit (Dixon et al., CENAPRED annual reports (ECLAC, 2003). 1994). For example, if the investment in embankments prevented the overflowing of a river that would have In order to calculate the damages, the costs of the flooded and destroyed a harvest valued in USD 1,600 partial and total destruction of physical infrastructure, (approximately MXN 20,000), said avoided cost can machinery, equipment, means of transport, storage be considered as the benefit or impact of the DRR and real estate property are estimated. For agricultural measures in the Agricultural sector. activities, it is necessary to estimate the destruction of the crops in the area that were ready for harvest The avoided cost method is widely used in (calculated at market price) and the damages to environmental impact valuations where it is necessary croplands and irrigation works. to estimate the value of goods or services in a In order to calculate the losses, the value of the affected counterfactual way. This methodology has proven to be goods and services must be estimated at market the technique to estimate the impact of investments in price. For productive sectors, losses must be assessed DRR that best models this type of situations (Barrantes considering the prices of the manufacturers, and, in the and Morales, 2008; Dixon et al, 1994). A benefit of this case of service disruption, the value of those that cannot method is that, based on market prices and rebuilding be provided due to the destruction of infrastructure costs of infrastructure works, we can estimate the must be estimated at the prices or rates paid by the impact that an event would have had in the absence of consumer or the end user (ECLAC, 2003). said measures. On the other hand, the most important limitation of this methodology is that it is impossible It is important to note that the validity of the results to isolate 100% of the events of interest from other depends on the accuracy of the information found in the interventions that could also be related to the reduction reports, which is obtained by means of interviews and of the damages and losses between 2007 and 2010. surveys conducted in the field by CENAPRED personnel. However, according to a thorough review validated by Said surveys are addressed at experts that represent the CENAPRED for the period in question, there were different specialized agencies in each sector both at no other relevant exogenous events that could have federal and at state level (this is explained in more detail helped reduce the damages and losses between the two in Annex 1). In this sense, it should be taken into account periods of interest. that it is possible that certain sectors may have better quality information than others. Furthermore, Annex 2 In order to conduct this analysis, a database was details the damages and losses definitions according created for 2007 and 2010 based on the CENAPRED to the ECLAC's manual and includes sector-specific annual reports on the characteristics and examples or descriptions. socioeconomic impact of the main disasters that occurred in the Mexican Republic published under the title Características e impacto socioeconómico de Results los principales desastres ocurridos en la República In the first place, the impact of DRR measures in general Mexicana. The estimations of the impact of damages will be analyzed, so as to be able to then compare the and losses reported by the CENAPRED were prepared damages and losses associated to the 2007 and 2010 following the ECLAC's methodology for the evaluation events by sector. As already established, the 2010 event of the socioeconomic and environmental impact of had a greater magnitude—as regards rainfall and runoff disasters (ECLAC, 2003; CENAPRED, 2005-2011). This in the river systems—than the 2007 event. However, methodology classifies the impacts of a natural event in and contrary to what would be expected due to the three categories: bigger magnitude of the 2010 event, damages and losses recorded in 2007 were significantly heavier. 28 | MX Technical Assistance on Comprehensive Risk Management FIGURE 17 NUMBER OF PEOPLE AFFECTED DURING THE 2007 AND 2010 DISASTERS IN TABASCO BY MUNICIPALITY Tenosique Teapa 2010 Tacotalpa Paraiso 2007 Nacajuca Macuspana Jonuta Jalpa de Mendez Jalapa Huimanguillo Emiliano Zapata Cunducán Comacalco Centro Centla Cárdenas Balancán 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 Source: Prepared by the authors based on report Características e impacto socioeconómico de los principales desastres ocurridos en la República Mexicana (CENAPRED, 2007 and 2010) TABLE 2 DAMAGES AND LOSSES CAUSED BY FLOODS IN TABASCO Figure 17 shows that the number of people affected by IN 2007 AND 2010 (IN MILLIONS OF USD, AS OF 2010) the 2007 floods at municipality level was bigger than in 2010. Although we can see a generalized decrease in the number of affected people in all municipalities—except 2007 2010 Primary Sector 812.84 156.70 for Balancán—, there is a remarkable drop particularly in Agricultural activity 679.10 67.77 the central area of the state, which is the most densely Animal Husbandry activity 70.07 88.60 populated part and where Villahermosa, the capital city, Fisheries and aquaculture 62.87 0.32 is located. Silviculture 0.79 0 Other productive sectors 961.93 72.60 This difference can also be seen in Table 2, which shows Commerce, manufacturing industry 936.36 65.95 that the damages and losses in 2007 amounted to and construction, and services USD 2,902,577,315 (MXN 36,659 million), while the ones Tourism and restaurants 25.50 6.65 in 2010 only came to USD 585,281,964 (MXN 7,392 million) Social sectors 544.82 39.75 (CENAPRED, 2007, 2011). Housing 232.23 19.40 Healthcare 190.03 4.83 As we can see in Figure 18, most of the decrease in Education 102.93 15.52 damages and losses was in other productive sectors, Culture 19.64 0 which include commerce, the manufacturing industry, Infrastructure 518.22 293.83 construction, services, tourism and restaurants. In the Roads 356.14 203.57 primary sector, the reduction is mainly due to a decrease Energy 4.35 0.95 in losses, while in the social sector and other productive Ports 1.74 0 sectors it can be attributed mainly to a decrease in Drinking water and sanitation 46.48 30.09 damages. Hydraulic works 109.42 59.14 Environment 14.80 7.68 Moreover, in Figure 18 it can be seen that the primary Emergency response 49.96 14.8 sector and other productive sectors, grouped in “Total Grand total 5,740.22 1,148.15 productive sectors”, represent around 60% of the total damages and losses. Lastly, it is important to highlight Source: Prepared by the authors based on report Características e impacto that, even when there was a significant reduction in socioeconómico de los principales desastres ocurridos en la República losses between 2007 and 2010, damages decreased Mexicana (CENAPRED, 2007 and 2010) 29 but persist. This is explained mainly by the damages This precludes a more detailed comparative analysis that the infrastructure sector suffered in 2010, which of said sectors, which represent 97% and 90% of the are equivalent to 65% of the damages sustained by the damages and losses in other productive sectors in 2007 same sector in 2007. and 2010, respectively. Primary Sector It is important to mention that, unlike in the primary sector, damages in other productive sectors Within the primary sector, the agricultural sector (USD 657,175,365; MXN 8.3 billion) were much higher experienced the highest reduction of losses than losses (USD 308,793,244; MXN 3.9 billion). The between 2007 and 2010. This reduction amounts above is explained by the intensive nature of these to USD 554,244,284 (MXN 7 billion) (see Figure 19). sectors as regards working capital and infrastructure, FIGURE 18 TOTAL ESTIMATED DAMAGES AND LOSSES IN 2007 AND 2010 (IN MILLIONS OF MXN AS OF 2010) 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2007 2010 2007 2010 2007 2010 2007 2010 2007 2010 2007 2010 2007 2010 Primary sector Other productive Social sector Infrastructure Emergency Productive General total sectors response sectors total Losses Damages Source: Prepared by the authors based on report Características e impacto socioeconómico de los principales desastres ocurridos en la República Mexicana (CENAPRED, 2007 and 2010) Furthermore, it is important to note that, even when the compared to the primary sector activities. In this 2010 event had a greater magnitude, the damages were category, the services sector was the most affected by virtually the same in both events in all sectors, except for the 2007 event, amounting to 31% of the total damages the animal husbandry sector. and losses sustained that year. Other Productive Sectors Social Sector As shown in Figure 20, in other productive sectors In this category, it is important to note that, in 2007, most of the reduction between 2007 and 2010 was two thirds of the damages and losses were damages due to a decrease in the damages sustained by the affecting healthcare and education institutions, while manufacture, construction and services sector. the remaining third is explained by the disruption of However, there is a limitation to this analysis: in 2010, the services. In 2010, almost all losses were avoided, and CENAPRED grouped together the sectors of commerce, damages dropped substantially in all subsectors (see services and manufacturing industry and construction, Figure 21). even though it had reported them separately in 2007. 30 | MX Technical Assistance on Comprehensive Risk Management FIGURE 19 DAMAGES AND LOSSES IN THE PRIMARY SECTOR IN Conclusions 2007 AND 2010 (IN MILLIONS OF MXN AS OF 2010) When calculating the avoided costs of the 2010 events and comparing them to the costs incurred during the 12,000 2007 events, it can be concluded that investments in DRR had a benefit or impact of USD 2,317,295,351 10,000 (MXN 29,267 million). This amount represents 7% of the 8,000 GDP of Tabasco in 2010. The impact can be seen in more detail in Table 3. In turn, Figure 24 shows the distribution 6,000 of these benefits (avoided costs) by sector, in terms of 4,000 damages and losses. It is important to mention that half of the avoided costs belong to the damages category, 2,000 mainly to the primary sector, while the other half was 0 2007 2010 2007 2010 2007 2010 2007 2010 Agricultural Animal Fisheries and Total FIGURE 20 DAMAGES AND LOSSES IN OTHER PRODUCTIVE SECTORS activity husbandry aquaculture IN 2007 AND 2010 (IN MILLIONS OF MXN AS OF 2010) activity Losses Damages 14,000 Source: Prepared by the authors based on report Características e impacto 12,000 socioeconómico de los principales desastres ocurridos en la República Mexicana (CENAPRED, 2007 and 2010) 10,000 8,000 6,000 Housing 4,000 Although in the CENAPRED reports the social sector 2,000 includes a housing subsector, in this study it is analyzed separately due to its importance. Because of its very 0 nature, this sub-sector sustained virtually only damages 2007 2010 2007 2010 2007 2010 in both events, for approximately USD 237.5 million Commerce, manufacturing, Tourism and Total (almost MXN 3 billion) in 2007 and almost non-existent construction and services restaurants in 2010 (see Figure 22). Losses Damages Infrastructure Sector Source: Prepared by the authors based on report Características e impacto socioeconómico de los principales desastres ocurridos en la República Mexicana (CENAPRED, 2007 and 2010) Figure 23 shows two interesting details: in the infrastructure sector, there were almost only damages, and these were reduced in almost 50% between the 2007 and the 2010 events. For both events, costs avoided in losses, chiefly in other productive sectors and concentrated mainly in roads (69% in both years), in the social sector. drinking water and sanitation infrastructure (9% and 10%, respectively) and hydraulic works (22% and 20%, Figure 25 shows another way of analyzing the respectively). Damages and losses in energy and port distribution of the impact of the benefits of investments infrastructure were almost non-existent, therefore in DRR by sector, where it can be observed that 66% they are not included in Figure 23. Even when there of the avoided cost belonged to the primary sector was a considerable reduction in damages and losses, and other productive sectors, while social sectors in this sector DRR measures seem to have had less concentrated 14% of the reduction; the infrastructure impact, as they represent the smallest percentage sectors had an 11% decrease and the housing at sector level. This is an intuitive result, because subsector, 9%. 83% of the investments were made in DRR measures that were aimed at protecting the population and its productive activities. 31 FIGURE 21 DAMAGES AND LOSSES IN THE SOCIAL SECTOR IN 2007 AND 2010 FIGURE 22 DAMAGES AND LOSSES IN THE HOUSING SECTOR IN (IN MILLIONS OF MXN AS OF 2010) 2007 AND 2010 (IN MILLIONS OF MXN AS OF 2010) 4,500 3,500 4,000 3,000 3,500 2,500 3,000 2,000 2,500 1,500 2,000 1,000 1,500 500 1,000 0 500 2007 2010 0 2007 2010 2007 2010 2007 2010 2007 2010 Healthcare Education Culture Total Losses Damages Losses Damages Source: Prepared by the authors based on report Características e impacto socioeconómico de los principales desastres ocurridos en la República Mexicana (CENAPRED, 2007 and 2010) Source: Prepared by the authors based on report Características e impacto socioeconómico de los principales desastres ocurridos en la República Mexicana (CENAPRED, 2007 and 2010) FIGURE 23 DAMAGES AND LOSSES IN THE INFRASTRUCTURE SECTOR IN FIGURE 24 BENEFITS (AVOIDED DAMAGES AND LOSSES) OF DRR MEASURES 2007 AND 2010 (IN MILLIONS OF MXN AS OF 2010) 35,000 7,000 30,000 6,000 25,000 5,000 20,000 4,000 15,000 3,000 10,000 2,000 5,000 1,000 0 0 Primary Other Social Infrastructure Productive General sector productive sector sectors total 2007 2010 2007 2010 2007 2010 2007 2010 sectors total Roads Drinking water Hydraulic Total and sanitation works Difference in losses Difference in damages Losses Damages Source: Prepared by the authors based on report Características e impacto Source: Prepared by the authors based on report Características e impacto socioeconómico de los principales desastres ocurridos en la República socioeconómico de los principales desastres ocurridos en la República Mexicana (CENAPRED, 2007 and 2010) Mexicana (CENAPRED, 2007 and 2010) 32 | MX Technical Assistance on Comprehensive Risk Management FIGURE 25 DISTRIBUTION OF AVOIDED COSTS AFTER THE 2010 DISASTER TABLE 3 BENEFITS (AVOIDED DAMAGES AND LOSSES) OF DRR MEASURES BY SECTOR, AFTER THE IMPLEMENTATION OF DRR MEASURES (in millions of MXN as of 2010) 2% Primary sector 0% Sector Difference Difference Total Other productive sectors in damages in losses diference 9% Social sectors Grand total 15,282 13,985 29,267 11% 31% Infrastructure Productive sectors total 8,300 11,219 19,519 Environment Primary sector 315 7,973 8,288 Emergency response Agricultural activity -82 7,803 7,721 14% Housing Animal husbandry activity -144 -90 -234 Fisheries and aquaculture 538 252 790 Silviculture 3 7 10 42% Other productive sectors 7,986 3,246 11,231 Commerce, manufacturing, 7,812 3,181 10,993 construction and services Tourism and restaurants 173 65 238 Social sectors 4,230 2,149 6,380 Source: Prepared by the authors Housing 2,677 11 2,688 Healthcare 780 1,560 2,340 Education 595 508 1,104 Culture 177 70 248 Infrastructure 2,772 63 2,834 Roads 1,927 0 1,927 Energy -1 44 43 Ports 22 0 22 Drinking water and sanitation 165 41 206 Hydraulic works 658 -22 635 Environment -20 111 90 Emergency response 0 443 443 Source: Prepared by the authors 33 SYNTHETIC CONTROL One of the major findings of the avoided costs Sources and Handling of Information calculation is that the greatest impact of the investments in DRR occurred in the productive sectors. In order to perform the above-mentioned analysis, a In order to have a better understanding of this fact, state-level database was created for the period 2000- another methodological approach was used, called 2011. Table 4 describes in detail each variable used in the synthetic control7. The synthetic control method enables analysis, as well as their sources and the adjustments to statistically generate a counterfactual event in the that had to be applied to them. region, state or municipality where we wish to measure the impact. Through the linear combination of a series of variables from different optimally weighted states Results and Analysis where there were no floods, it is possible to model how Tabasco´s primary GDP (our variable of interest) would Since the prevalence of poverty is higher among the have behaved if the state had not suffered the 2007 and population engaged in the primary sector, different 2010 floods. variables were included in the study to ensure this ratio is taken into consideration. In other words, it was Once the weighting factors for each state are decided to control for variables that may reflect and obtained, the behavior of the synthetic control after predict poverty and economic development dynamics the intervention is estimated and compared to that in the agricultural sector at state level. Based on the of Tabasco, where the event did occur. The difference variables described in the above table for the period between the result after the intervention in Tabasco and 2000-2006, states with weights over zero were selected its synthetic (counterfactual) control reflects the impact for the creation of the synthetic group. Table 5 details of the intervention (that is, investments in DRR). the states selected for this purpose. The primary GDP (agriculture, fisheries and As can be seen, neighboring states such as Campeche, silviculture) was chosen as the variable of interest Chiapas and Quintana Roo jointly represent almost 60% for two fundamental reasons. Firstly, according to of the variation of the primary GDP of Tabasco. The other the avoided cost analysis, the agricultural sector states that explain the difference in a complementary is among the ones that benefited more from the way are Tlaxcala, Coahuila and Zacatecas. These investments in DRR (it represents around 30% of the estimated weights make it possible to successfully total avoided costs). Secondly, the methodological minimize the difference in the pre-treatment dynamics changes made by the National Institute of Statistics for the primary GDP of Tabasco (in millions of MXN) and and Geography (INEGI) during the period under analysis its synthetic control, as shown in Figure 26. provide comparable time series for the secondary and tertiary GDP.8 Once the quality of the synthetic group created specifically for estimating the evolution of the primary Through this methodology, the primary GDP dynamics GDP in Tabasco has been assessed, it is possible before the 2007 floods is replicated.9 According to this to project the trend for the period 2007-2011. It is methodology, the differences found for years 2007-2009 important to highlight that these projections refer to the are attributable to the event that took place in 2007, net average effect of rainfall and flood events and do while the differences found for years 2010-2011 may be not distinguish the direct and indirect effects caused by attributable to the event that occurred in 2010. This those events on the primary GDP. analysis is carried out up to 2011, as that is the last year for which we have public information available on the Figure 27 shows the evolution of the trend after the 2007 GDP by economic sector at state level. rainfall events. It can be clearly noted that Tabasco's 7 This method was developed by Abadie and Gardezabal (2003) and Abadie et al. (2010). 8 For example, in 2003 baseline change, the oil and gas well drilling services were included in the secondary sector, which substantially increased the GDP of some states engaged in the extraction of these hydrocarbons, such as Tabasco (INEGI, 2012). 9 This is known as “pre-treatment stage” and corresponds to the 2000-2006 period. 34 | MX Technical Assistance on Comprehensive Risk Management TABLE 4 DESCRIPTION OF VARIABLES Variables Description Source Primary GDP* Gross domestic product in the primary sector INEGI and Bank of Mexico at 2010 prices Economically active Persons aged 12 or older that, during the week INEGI Data Bank; National Occupation and Employment population of reference, performed any economic activity Survey; INEGI archives or were looking for employment Amount allocated to the Amount granted by PROCAMPO at 2010 PROCAMPO program prices Amount allocated to the Amount granted by the Oportunidades INEGI Data Bank Oportunidades program program at 2010 prices Literacy rate Literacy rate of between 15 and 24 years INEGI Data Bankç of age Mortality rate Gross mortality rate INEGI Data Bank; estimations by the National Population Council (CONAPO) of Mexico Direct foreign investment Direct foreign investment at 2010 prices Ministry of Economy; Directorate General of Foreign Investment Public housing investment Investments in housing programs INEGI Data Bank; National Housing Commission (CONAVI) Illiteracy rate** Total percentage of illiterate persons INEGI Data Bank; General Population and Housing Data 2000 and 2010; General Population and Housing Count 2005 Average years of Average level of education of the INEGI Data Bank; General Population and Housing Data education** population aged 15 or older 2000 and 2010; General Population and Housing Count 2005 Electric power sales Value of electric power sales INEGI Data Bank; Federal Electricity Commission (CFE) Rate of population with Population with at least one deficiency due World Bank estimation based on information from the deficiencies related to to quality of floor, walls, ceilings or with an National Council for the Evaluation of Social housing quality or space*** overcrowding rate over 2.5 Development Policy (CONEVAL) Rate of population with Population not enrolled at any health World Bank estimation based on information from the deficiencies related to lack insurance provider, either through National Council for the Evaluation of Social of access to healthcare employment, voluntary membership or Development Policy (CONEVAL) services*** through the enrollment of a first-degree relative Percentage of land for Percentage of soil intended for World Bank estimation using vector data from the Land agricultural use agricultural use Use and Vegetation Chart, scale 1:250,000, Series IV by INEGI, 2010 * Due to the methodological changes applied by the INEGI during the period under analysis, there is no comparable information at state level for years 2000-2010. Since the INEGI does not have information for years 2000-2002 at 2003 prices, for these years data was estimated using information from the INEGI based on 1993 and a series of the national GDP at 2003 prices obtained from the Bank of Mexico. With this information, it was possible to estimate the primary GDP percentage contributed by each state using the information from the INEGI at 1993 prices and multiplying it by the national GDP at 2003 prices, to obtain an estimation of the GDP of the state at 2003 prices. ** Information available only for years 2000, 2005 and 2010; the missing years were calculated using an average growth rate. *** Information available only for years 2008, 2010 and 2012; the missing years were calculated using an average growth rate. 35 TABLE 5 WEIGHTS ASSIGNED TO THE SYNTHETIC CONTROL GROUP of prevention measures. In other words, the losses in Tabasco's primary GDP compared to those projected by the synthetic control for the period 2007-2009 are attributable to the 2007 event, while the losses for the CVE State Weight assigned period 2010-2011 are attributable to the 2010 event. Since 3 Baja California Sur 0.030 the 2010 event had a greater magnitude than the 2007 4 Campeche 0.295 event, it is worth noting that the comparison of damages 5 Coahuila 0.129 between both events provides a conservative estimation 7 Chiapas 0.094 of their impact on the primary GDP. 23 Quintana Roo 0.200 29 Tlaxcala 0.136 Table 6 shows the exact estimated values of the 32 Zacatecas 0.115 damages related to both events. It can be clearly seen that the 2007 event had a negative effect on Tabasco's primary GDP with a drop of almost 15% compared to the Source: Prepared by the authors counterfactual. This translates in a fall of almost 9% of the GDP in 2008 compared to 2007. On the other hand, the 2010 event only caused a 1% fall of the primary GDP in the short term compared to the previous year. The primary GDP (solid line) falls significantly with respect above suggests that, even when the 2010 event had a to a (hypothetical) scenario in which there was no rain considerably greater magnitude, the damages caused by (dashed line). Therefore, the difference between both said event are minimal compared to those caused by the lines provides an estimate of the effect of the damages 2007 event. related to the rainfall events on the primary GDP. In other words, thanks to the investments in DRR, the Since we have a natural experiment—given the impact related to the 2010 event (1%) was minimal events that occurred in 2007 and 2010 are similar compared to the damages caused by the 2007 event from the hydrological perspective, as has already (15%), at which time no mitigation measures had been been established—the impact of risk reduction and implemented. The damages accumulated for the period prevention investments may be estimated by comparing under analysis and the comparison to the total GDP the damages after both events. The difference between represent a total avoided cost (or benefit) of 1% for the the damages provides a direct estimation of the impact economy of Tabasco. FIGURE 26 PRE-TREATMENT TREND FOR TABASCO AND SYNTHETIC TABASCO 10,000 Primary sector GDP (in millions of MXN) 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Tabasco Synthetic Tabasco Source: Prepared by the authors 36 | MX Technical Assistance on Comprehensive Risk Management FIGURE 27 PRE- AND POST-TREATMENT TREND FOR TABASCO AND SYNTHETIC TABASCO 10,000 Primary sector GDP (in millions of MXN) 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 treated unit synthetic control unit Source: Prepared by the authors TABLE 6 RESULTS OBTAINED THROUGH THE SYNTHETIC CONTROL METHOD Primary GDP Percent Annual Year (in millions of USD) difference change (%)* Tabasco Synthetic Tabasco 2008 435.05 492.88 -12% -9% 2009 412.30 496.45 -17% -6% 2010 420.70 513.97 -18% -1% 2011 414.01 508.63 -19% -1% * Compared to the previous year. Source: Prepared by the authors 37 CONCLUSIONS This report establishes a methodology framework This study emphasizes the importance of improving that the CENAPRED and other entities can use to the information produced regarding these issues. In estimate the impact of DRR measures in Mexico and this sense, it is important to have georeferencing data makes available for the Government of Mexico a set of of the affected areas, to break down the information by tools that can be used in the future. It is important to household, to establish baselines, to ratify indicators, point out that the application of these methodologies, etc. Additionally, the creation of an Internet database and their respective conclusions, are directly related could simplify the search of information both for the to the access to and quality of available information. CENAPRED and for other entities, and may encourage CENAPRED annual reports, Características e impacto the undertaking of more studies on the impact of DRR socioeconómico de los principales desastres ocurridos measures in the country. en la República Mexicana were key to this study. However, their resolution and level of detail may become This work is the result of the joint efforts of the Mexican a limitation when interpreting the results. In this sense, it Ministry of the Interior (SEGOB), the Ministry of Finance is important to mention that the purpose of this work is and Public Credit (SHCP) and the International Bank for to deepen understanding and to increase the evidence Reconstruction and Development under the Technical base of the cost-effectiveness of DRR measures in terms Assistance Agreement regarding Comprehensive Risk of reducing the impact of natural disasters in Mexico. Management, and strengthens the close cooperation Mexico and the World Bank have maintained on Notwithstanding these limitations, the results presented the subject. are conclusive. Investments in DRR in Tabasco, mainly through the PHIT, helped to prevent damages and losses worth millions; only in 2010, the benefits of investments in DRR measures were three times greater than their cost, with the primary sector being the most benefited. The above does not only justify said investments, but also encourages the Federal Government to increase their efforts along these lines, especially in states that are constantly affected by hydrological disasters, such as Veracruz and Tabasco. 39 BIBLIOGRAPHY Abadie, A., & Gardeazabal, J. (2003). The Economic Costs of Conflict: A Case Study of the Basque Country. American Economic Review, 93(1), 113-132. Abadie, A., Diamond, A., & Hainmueller J. (2010). Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California's Tobacco Control Program. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 105(490): 493–505. Barrantes, R., & Morales, R. (2008). Estimación de las pérdidas causadas por eventos originados por el Cambio Climático y de los costos y beneficios de implementar medidas de reducción de riesgos en el marco del Sistema Nacional de Inversión Pública. Cavallo, E., Galiani, S., Noy, I., & Pantano, J. (2013). Catastrophic Natural Disasters and Economic Growth. Review of Economics and Statistics, 95(5): 1549-1561. Coffman, M., & Noy, I. (2012). Hurricane Iniki: measuring the long-term economic impact of a natural disaster using synthetic control. Environment and Development Economics, 17(2): 187-205. CENAPRED, (2005-2011). Características e impacto socioeconómico de los principales desastres ocurridos en la República Mexicana. ECLAC (2003). Manual para la evaluación del impacto socioeconómico y ambiental de los desastres. CODEHUCO (2011). “A los años mil, el agua vuelve a su carril…” Estudio sobre los Factores de riesgo de desastre por inundaciones en el municipio de Comalcalco, Tabasco. CODEHUTAB (2009). Tabasco, voces de una inundación prolongada: recuento de la tragedia tabasqueña. CONAGUA, (2012). Libro Blanco CONAGUA-01. Plan Hídrico Integral de Tabasco (PHIT). CONAGUA, (2013). Presentación sobre el Plan Hídrico Integral de Tabasco durante la Misión del Banco Mundial, agosto 2013. De la Fuente, A. (2010). Government Expenditures in Pre and Post Disaster Risk Management. Background Note for World Bank–U.N. Assessment on the Economics of Disaster Risk Reduction. Natural Hazards, Unnatural Disasters: The Economics of Effective Prevention. Dixon, J., Fallon, L., Carpenter, R., Sherman, P., Banco Asiático de Desarrollo & Banco Mundial (1994). Análisis económico de impactos ambientales. Banco Asiático de Desarrollo. FONDEN (2012). FONDEN: El Fondo de Desastres Naturales de México – Una Reseña. FONDEN (2010). Reglas Generales del Fondo de Desastres Naturales. Fundación IDEA (2009). Cuando el río suena. Las inundaciones en Tabasco y las políticas públicas. INEGI (2010). Estadísticas Económicas INEGI: Balanza Comercial de México. INEGI (2012). SCNM: Sistema de Cuentas Nacionales de México: Producto Interno Bruto por entidad federativa 2007- 2011, año base 2003. Jungehülsing, J. (2012). Gender relations and women’s vulnerability to climate change. Heinrich Böll Stiftung, Mexico, Central America and Caribbean Office Kramer, A. (1994). "Advantages and Limitations of Benefit-Cost Analysis for Evaluating Investments in Natural Disaster Mitigation". Disaster prevention for sustainable development: Economic and policy issues: 61-76. 41 Mechler, R. (2005). Cost-Benefit Analysis of Natural Disaster Risk Management in Developing Countries. Deutsche Gesellschaft fur Technische Zusammenarbeit. Mideksa, T. (2012). The economic impact of natural resources. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 65 (2): 277-289. Pedrozo-Acuña A., Mariño-Tapia I., Enriquez, C., Medellín, G., & González, F. J. (2012). Evaluation of inundation areas resulting from the diversion of an extreme discharge towards the sea: case study in Tabasco, Mexico. Hydrol. Process, 26, 687–704. Pedrozo, A. (2013). Informe de Caracterización Hidrológica de la entidad federativa de Tabasco. Banco Mundial. Perevochtchikova M., & Lezama de la Torre J. L. (2010). Causas de un desastre: Inundaciones del 2007 en Tabasco, México. Centro de Estudios Demográficos, Urbanos y Ambientales El Colegio de México (CEDUA-COLMEX). Ramos, J., Marrufo, L., & González F. J. (2009). Use of LiDAR Data in Floodplain Risk Management Planning: The Experience of Tabasco 2007 Flood. Santos-Reyes, J., Alvarado-Corona, R., & Olmos-Peña, S. (2010). Learning from Tabasco’s floods by applying MORT. Safety Science, 48, 1351–1360. Santos-Reyes J., Beard, A. N. (2011). "Applying the SDMS Model to the Analysis of the Tabasco Flood Disaster in Mexico". Human and Ecological Risk Assessment: An International Journal, 17(3), 646-677. SRSA/DWR/PROACT (2008). Disaster Waste Management Assessment — Tabasco, Republic of Mexico. 42 | MX Technical Assistance on Comprehensive Risk Management ANNEXES ANNEX 1 INFORMATION FROM THE CENAPRED FOR THE ESTIMATION OF DAMAGES AND LOSSES Sector 2007 Agency 2010 Agency Type of information Agricultural sector Agriculture Secretariat of Agricultural, Animal Secretariat of Agricultural, Animal Total surface in hectares affected by and animal Husbandry Forestry and Fisheries Husbandry Forestry and Fisheries district and municipality husbandry Development (SEDAFOP) Development (SEDAFOP) Livestock and poultry population by Undersecretariat for the Promotion of Secretariat of Agriculture, Animal municipality Agriculture, Animal Husbandry and Husbandry, Rural Development, Fisheries, Government of Tabasco Fisheries and Food (SAGARPA) Hectares of affected crops by municipality Secretariat of Agriculture, Animal Secretariat of Agricultural, Animal Husbandry, Rural Development, Husbandry Forestry and Fisheries Affected agricultural infrastructure Fisheries and Food (SAGARPA), Development (SEDAFOP) Tabasco State Office Supports by crop type (unit, quantity Secretariat of Agriculture, Animal Husbandry, and component) Directorate of Animal Husbandry Rural Development, Fisheries and Food (Government of Tabasco), and (SAGARPA) Affected pasture surface (in hectares) Secretariat of Agriculture, Animal Husbandry, Rural Development, Secretariat of Natural Resources and Number of heads of stock lost Fisheries and Food (SAGARPA) Environmental Protection (currently, as of 2017, Secretariat of Energy, Natural Affected producers Resources and Environmental Protection [SERNAPAM]) Fisheries and Secretariat of Agricultural, Animal Secretariat of Natural Resources and Number of affected hectares of aquaculture Husbandry Forestry and Fisheries Environmental Protection (currently, aquaculture crops Development (SEDAFOP) as of 2017, Secretariat of Energy, Natural Resources and Environmental Affected producers and fishermen Undersecretariat for the Promotion of Protection [SERNAPAM]) Agriculture and Fisheries, Government Affected boats and engines of Tabasco Secretariat of Agriculture, Animal Husbandry, Rural Development, Fisheries and Food (SAGARPA), Tabasco State Office Forestry Secretariat of Agricultural, Animal Damages to plant nurseries, forests and Husbandry Forestry and Fisheries plantations by municipality Development (SEDAFOP) Directorate of Aquaculture and Fisheries (Government of Tabasco) and Secretariat of Agriculture, Animal Husbandry, Rural Development, Fisheries and Food (SAGARPA) State Forestry Commission (COMERFOR) of the state of Tabasco at federal level Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources (SEMARNAT) National Forestry Commission (CONAFOR) 45 ANNEX 1 INFORMATION FROM THE CENAPRED FOR THE ESTIMATION OF DAMAGES AND LOSSES Sector 2007 Agency 2010 Agency Type of information Non-Agricultural Sector Commerce General Directorate for Government Secretariat of Economic Development Companies affected Modernization and Innovation of the state of Tabasco (currently, as (DGMIG) of Tabasco of 2017, Secretariat of Economic Number of affected workers Development and Tourism) Directorate of Supply and Ministry of Economy Jobs lost Commercialization of the Secretariat of Economic Develop- Ministry of Social Development Impact of infrastructure, machinery and ment and Tourism of the state of (SEDESOL) companies' inventories Tabasco Industry General Directorate for Government Impact of infrastructure, machinery and Modernization and Innovation companies' inventories (DGMIG) of Tabasco Services Dirección General de Modernización Impact of infrastructure, machinery and e Innovación Gubernamental companies' inventories de Tabasco Tourism Secretariat of Tourism of the state of Secretariat of Tourism of the state of Public tourism infrastructure (museums, Tabasco (currently, as of 2017, Tabasco (currently, as of 2017, monuments, lodges, etc.) Secretariat of Economic Develop- Secretariat of Economic Develop- ment and Tourism) ment and Tourism) Investment in rehabilitation of priority areas Office of Conventions and Visitors (OCV) of Tabasco Tourist resorts downtime Center of Higher Education in Decrease in tourist influx Tourism (CESTUR) Infrastructure Transport and State Road Board (JEC) of the State Road Board (JEC) of Tabasco Affected road system kilometers by type communica- Secretariat of Settlements and of road tions Public Works (SAOP) of the state of Tabasco Resources used for emergency response Resources used to respond to impacts on road infrastructure (human resources, materials, equipment and machinery) Communications services suspended or affected Bridges affected by municipality Temporary closing of toll roads; average transit Immediate partial support (APIN-FONDEN). 46 | MX Technical Assistance on Comprehensive Risk Management ANNEX 1 INFORMATION FROM THE CENAPRED FOR THE ESTIMATION OF DAMAGES AND LOSSES Sector 2007 Agency 2010 Agency Type of information Infrastructure Sanitation and Directorate of Hydraulic Works of State Water and Sanitation Impact on equipment and infrastructure drinking water the SAOP Commission of Tabasco (drinking water, sewers, solid waste) by municipality Drinking Water and Sanitation System of the municipality of Centro Immediate partial support (APIN-FONDEN). Drinking Water and Sanitation System of the municipality of Balancán Human resources and materials used Secretariat of Settlements and Public Works (SAOP) of the state of Service downtime Tabasco Electricity Federal Electricity Commission Damaged equipment (sub-stations, (CFE) lamp posts, distribution networks, etc.); unsold energy Service downtime, users affected Environment SEMARNAT-TABASCO Wildlife Ministry of Energy, Natural Impact on environmental management Department Resources and Environmental (UMA) Protection (SERNAPAM) Pantanos de Centla Biosphere Impact on protected natural areas Reserve/National Commission of Natural Protected Areas (CONANP) Centla Town Hall CONAFOR Social sectors Housing Ministry of Social Development Tabasco Housing Institute (INVITAB) Affected households by municipality (SEDESOL) and by type of damage Healthcare Secretariat of Health (SS) of Tabasco Secretariat of Health (SS) of Affected and used infrastructure, Tabasco facilities and supplies Actions taken in the critical stage, stabilization and reconstruction (e.g. Visits to doctors, immunization, counseling, health brigades, etc.) Medical units affected Public health and epidemiology-related actions Human resources employed in response to the emergency 47 ANNEX 1 INFORMATION FROM THE CENAPRED FOR THE ESTIMATION OF DAMAGES AND LOSSES Sector 2007 Agency 2010 Agency Type of information Social sectors Education and Secretariat of Public Education Secretariat of Public Education Number of affected students and sports (SEP) of Tabasco (SEP) of Tabasco teachers Institute of Youth and Sports Education centers affected (INJUTAB) of Tabasco Education centers' infrastructure and furniture affected Sports centers affected Schools buildings used as shelters Educational materials affected Cultural centers' infrastructure and equipment affected Users affected by suspended cultural activities Other sectors Emergency Civil Protection State Unit (UEPC) of Civil Protection State Unit (UEPC) of Supplies delivered (provisions, response the State of Tabasco the State of Tabasco blankets, mats, etc.) Transportation equipment supplied Machinery, tools and equipment Human resources for emergency response Population, localities, families, temporary shelters, people in shelters, etc. Impact on Secretariat for Planning (currently, Comprehensive Development for Female population affected by female as of 2017, Secretariat for Planning Families (DIF) of Tabasco municipality population and Finances [SPF]) Micro-enterprises owned by women Secretariat of Agriculture, Animal by municipality Husbandry, Rural Development, Fisheries and Food (SAGARPA) Poultry in rural households Secretariat of Agricultural, Animal Husbandry Forestry and Fisheries Development (SEDAFOP) Comprehensive Development for Families (DIF) of Tabasco Ministry of Health Source: CENAPRED 48 | MX Technical Assistance on Comprehensive Risk Management ANNEX 2: DEFINITIONS, DESCRIPTIONS AND EXAMPLES OF DAMAGES AND LOSSES DEFINITION OF DAMAGES • Education: Loss of capital or property of the education sector.1 Total productive sectors: Primary sector and other • Culture: Damages to or destruction of buildings, productive sectors. furniture and equipment; cultural materials, artwork and books kept in historical heritage buildings that have been affected.1 Primary Sector • Agricultural activity: Damages to arable land, Infrastructure damages to physical infrastructure, machinery and equipment (tractors, field sprayers, etc.), loss of • Roads: Losses of assets or property. production ready for harvest and loss of inventory • Energy: Losses of assets or property in power (supplies, harvested products, etc.).1 generation plants, power transmission and • Animal husbandry activity: Damages to physical distribution systems, and dispatch centers.1 infrastructure, machinery and equipment, and loss of • Ports: Damages to breakwater structures; damages inventory (livestock, supplies, etc.).1 to anchoring structures, including piers and docks; • Fisheries and aquaculture: Losses of fishing assets damages to special equipment related to port (vessels, engines, nets and riggings).1 operations; and damages to roads and land facilities • Silviculture or other port infrastructure.1 • Drinking water and sanitation: Damages to infrastructure and equipment of urban and rural Other Productive Sectors drinking water systems, sewers, collection and disposal of residential waste, and loss of inventory • Commerce: Value of asset lost by affected factories (chemicals, stored water, spare parts, other assets).1 estimated on the basis of its current condition at • Hydraulic works: Loss of capital or assets in the time of the disaster; replacement cost of the lost hydraulic works, such as dams, embankments, water asset with the same characteristics of the original supply systems, among others. design; reconstruction cost. • Manufacturing industry and construction: Value of asset lost by affected factories estimated on the basis Environment of its current condition at the time of the disaster; replacement cost of the lost asset with the same Direct damages resulting from changes in the quantity characteristics of the original design; reconstruction or quality of environmental assets (environmental cost, including the components required for change), such as loss of soil and vegetation, loss of vulnerability reduction.1 quality or quantity of available water, changes in the • Services dynamics of ecosystems, etc. The following are also • Tourism and restaurants: Direct damages to considered as direct damages: the destruction of infrastructure and equipment in the sector.1 constructed capital that prevents (or renders more expensive) the use of environmental assets, such as damaged water distribution networks or water treatment Social Sectors facilities, the destruction of communications networks and means of transport that prevents the performance • Housing: Direct damages related to lost assets or of activities that imply the use of environmental goods property. Essentially, damages to or destruction of and services, etc.1 housing and household furniture and equipment, and of public buildings and urban infrastructure. • Healthcare: Direct effects of the disaster on the infrastructure of the healthcare system and on medical equipment and supplies inventories. 49 Emergency Response Social Sectors • Housing: Future economic flows related to Damages and Losses Suffered by Women costs of demolition and removal of debris before reconstruction and after the stage of humanitarian Losses or damages related to housing when the owner assistance; costs associated to reducing the of the household is a woman; as well as loss of or vulnerability of dwellings and mitigating the damage damage to furniture and home appliances owned by in case of the occurrence of new extreme natural women; equipment and machinery women may use for disasters; costs of purchase and urban development production, either in home-based small shops or in small of plots of land to relocate households that were businesses or micro-enterprises; assets that women located in vulnerable places before the disaster; and may have in productive sectors; livestock, home-based costs of temporary housing used while new units are plantations or crops, and production inventories stored built or the damaged ones are repaired.1 in the home or adjacent locations.1 • Healthcare: Cut in the services that are normally provided; supplementary cost of the care provided to the people affected by the disaster, including DEFINITION OF LOSSES the cost of services and personnel relocation to emergency services; cost of inactive human resources due to the impact on infrastructure; Primary Sector reinforcement of epidemiological vigilance; increase • Agricultural activity: Indirect damages to annual in the costs of medical treatments; foregone or seasonal crops when the produce of dry farming earnings; emergency response activities; provision cannot be obtained because crops are not replanted of medication and other supplies; vector control; in a timely manner in case of long term floods that immunization; counseling, etc.1 reduce yield or prevent planting of a crop, and when • Education: Cost of rehabilitation or repair of the absence of rain due to long droughts prevents the educational facilities temporarily used as shelters for planting of one or more crops or reduces their yield.1 the affected persons; costs of demolition and removal • Animal husbandry activity: Reduction of livestock of debris after the emergency stage and before production due to the emotional reaction of animals reconstruction; cost of temporary lease of premises to natural disasters affecting them. For example, after for delivery of education services; cost of buildings' a hurricane or a long flood, hens stop laying eggs, vulnerability reduction; cost of purchase and urban cows lose considerable weight and milk production development of plots of land for the relocation of goes down, etc.1 the buildings in the sector to areas with less or no • Fisheries and aquaculture: Lost future catch.1 vulnerability; foregone earnings during the repair or reconstruction of heritage buildings.1 • Culture: Costs of demolition and removal of debris Other Productive Sectors after the emergency and before reconstruction; cost of temporary lease of premises for delivery of cultural • Commerce: Negative effects on production services that may be incurred during infrastructure workflows, both due to temporary suspension repair and reconstruction; cost of buildings' of activities (during rehabilitation and until the vulnerability reduction; cost of purchase and urban former production level is regained) and to the development of plots of land for the relocation of relative shortage of supplies caused by the the buildings in the sector to areas with less or no temporary disruption of communications and vulnerability; foregone earnings during the repair or commercialization channels. reconstruction of heritage buildings.1 • Manufacturing industry and construction: Negative effects on production workflows, both due to temporary suspension of activities (during Infrastructure rehabilitation and until the former production level is regained) and to the relative shortage of • Roads: Cost resulting from the disruption of traffic. supplies caused by the temporary disruption of • Energy: On the one hand, additional cost of communications and commercialization channels. temporarily fulfilling energy requirements during the • Services rehabilitation of the affected facilities and, on the • Tourism and restaurants: Loss of future patron and other, net income or surplus foregone by electric tourist flows, and cleaning of beaches silted up with utilities during said period.1 material dragged by the tides. 50 | MX Technical Assistance on Comprehensive Risk Management • Ports: Loss of profit related to cruises that would have docked in the port if the disaster had not taken place; loss of profit related to port operation services; loss of profit of utility services for sport port facilities; affected insurance.1 • Drinking water and sanitation: For water, sewers and waste collection systems, losses include activities related to restoring service (water distribution with tanker trucks or other means; acquisition of equipment and machinery; repairs; changes in water treatment processes; use of materials and supplies in inventory in support of the rehabilitation tasks; personnel overtime); the decrease in the production of drinking water (collection, treatment, storage and distribution); and cost decrease due to partial system operation.1 Environment Indirect damage resulting from changes in the flow of environmental goods and services caused by the temporary inability to use environmental resources owing to the damages caused by the disaster until the natural assets or human resources are recovered.1 Losses sustained by women Loss of productive work performed outside the home; loss of production and income in the household, either related to losses or damages to home-based economy or to small businesses and micro-enterprises that women manage from the home; increase in reproductive labor and other financial damages that also occur when women have debts or financing that has not been fully repaid.1 1 CEPAL, 2003. Manual para la evaluación del impacto socioeconómico y ambiental de los desastres. Volumes I, II, III and IV. 51 ANNEX 3: GLOSSARY For the purpose of this study, a theoretical framework design, construction, materials, alteration and occupancy on disaster risk management is adopted, as well as a of structures that are necessary to ensure human set of specific definitions of terms such as prevention, safety and welfare, including resistance to collapse and risk reduction, risk management, mitigation, emergency damage. Building codes can include both technical and response and reconstruction, among others. functional standards. They should incorporate the lessons of international experience and should be tailored to The new Mexican General Law of Civil Protection (Ley national and local circumstances. A systematic regime of General de Protección Civil) published in the Official enforcement is a critical supporting requirement for the Gazette of the Federation on June 6th, 2012, is taken as effective implementation of building codes.3 the reference framework to this end. Additionally, the definition of the main terms established by the United Casualty: Critical and harmful situation caused by the Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction occurrence of one or more disruptive phenomena in (UNISDR)—and also used in practice in other countries a property or facility that affects its population and of Latin America—are integrated herein. equipment, and possibly the surrounding facilities too.2 As a result, this glossary has been put together with the Chemical-technological phenomenon: Disruptive agent definitions of the terms that are used in the study. caused by the violent action of different substances derived from their molecular or nuclear interaction. This Acceptable risk: Level of potential losses that a society comprises destructive phenomena such as fires of any or community considers acceptable given existing social, kind, explosions, toxic leaks, radiation and spillages.2 economic, political, cultural, technical and environmental conditions. In engineering terms,“acceptable risk” Civil Protection Internal Unit: Regulatory and is also used to assess and define the structural and operational body responsible for developing and non-structural measures that are needed in order to running civil protection actions, as well as for preparing, reduce possible harm to people, property, services updating, operating and monitoring the Internal Program and systems to a chosen tolerated level, according to of Civil Protection in the buildings and stationary codes or “accepted practice” which are based on known and mobile facilities of an office, institution or entity probabilities of hazards and other factors.3 belonging to the public, private and social sectors. They are also known as “Civil Protection Institutional Advisory Council: Permanent Advisory Council on Civil Brigades”.2 Protection, a consulting body of the National Council.2 Civil Protection Units: Public administration bodies Aid: Response to assist people at risk of or affected by at state, municipal or local office level in charge of a loss, emergency or disaster given by public or private organizing, coordinating and operating the National specialized groups, or by civil protection internal units, System in their territory.2 as well as any actions to safeguard the remainder of the vulnerable agents.2 Civil protection: Supportive and participatory action that, taking into account both natural or anthropic risks and Anthropogenic phenomenon: Disruptive agent the adverse effects of the disruptive agents, provides for produced by human activity.2 the coordination and agreement of public, private and social national sectors with the purpose of creating a set Brigade: Group of organized people that act inside of provisions, plans, programs, strategies, mechanisms a building and who are trained and qualified in basic and resources so that in a co-responsible manner and emergency response functions such as first aid, fighting favoring comprehensive risk management and the fire outbreaks, evacuation, search and rescue. Brigades continuity of operations, the measurements and actions are appointed at the Civil Protection Internal Unit to be in necessary to safeguard the life, integrity and health of charge of the development and execution of prevention, the population, as well as their assets, infrastructure, aid and recovery actions based on the provisions of the productive plant and environment, are applied.2 building's Civil Protection Internal Program.2 Climate Change Adaptation: The adjustment in natural Building code: A set of ordinances or regulations and or human systems in response to actual or expected associated standards intended to control aspects of the climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm 52 | MX Technical Assistance on Comprehensive Risk Management or exploits beneficial opportunities. Several types of disaster risks which are already present. This concept adaptations may be distinguished, such as preventive and aims to distinguish between the risks that are already reactive, public and private, autonomous and planned.3 present, and which need to be managed and reduced now, and the prospective risks that may develop in the Climate change: Change in the climate directly or future if risk reduction policies are not put in place. See indirectly attributable to human activity that alters also “Prospective disaster risk management”.3 the composition of the global atmosphere and which adds to any natural climate variability observed during Disaster area: Territory determined in time by the formal comparable periods of time.2 The Inter-governmental declaration of disaster by a competent authority in Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) defines climate change virtue of the disruption affecting its social structure that as “a change in the state of the climate that can be prevents the community from carrying out its normal identified (e.g., by using statistical tests) by changes in activities. It may imply the use of public resources the mean and/or the variability of its properties, and through the Disaster Fund.2 that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer. Climate change may be due to natural Disaster risk reduction plan*: Document prepared by internal processes or external forcings, or to persistent an authority, sector, organization or enterprise that sets anthropogenic changes in the composition of the out goals and specific objectives for reducing disaster atmosphere or in land use”.3 risks together with related actions to accomplish these objectives. Disaster risk reduction plans should Comprehensive risk management: Set of actions be guided by the Hyogo Framework for Action10 aimed at identifying, analyzing, assessing, controlling and considered and coordinated within relevant and reducing risks—considered in accordance development plans, resource allocations and program with their multifactorial origin and in a permanent activities. National level plans need to be specific to construction process—that involves the three levels each level of administrative responsibility and adapted of government, as well as different areas of the society, to the different social and geographical circumstances which facilitates the performance of actions aimed at that are present. The time frame and responsibilities creating and implementing public policies, strategies for implementation and the sources of funding should and procedures oriented towards achieving guidelines be specified in the plan. Linkages to climate change of sustainable development to fight the structural adaptation plans should be made where possible.3 causes of the disasters and strengthen the society’s resilience or resistance abilities. It includes the stages Disaster: Result of the occurrence of one or more of identification of risks or their process of formation, severe or extreme disruptive agents, either linked forecasting, prevention, mitigation, preparation, aid, together or not, of natural origin or arising from recovery and reconstruction.2 The CENAPRED defines human activity that, when occurring at a specific comprehensive risk management as the planning, time and area, cause damages, and which, due to participation and decision-making process based on the their magnitude, exceed the capacity of response of principle of “disaster risk multi-factoriality that results in a the affected community.2 A natural disaster causes government and society intervention model to implement a system-wide disruption, that is, it affects a big policies, strategies and action with the ultimate purpose portion of or an entire locality, or several localities. It of reducing, foreseeing and permanently controlling implies a deviation from normal social and economic disaster risk in society, and constitutes an intrinsic part patterns and impacts human health, material property of the sustainable development and planning processes” or natural and built environments. Natural disasters Guevara Ortiz, E. (2011).1 are those caused by hydrometeorological events or phenomena (such as droughts, frosts, hailstorms, Continuity of operations: Planning, documentation snowfalls, torrential rains, significant floods, tornadoes and action process that ensures that the substantial and cyclones) and geological events or phenomena activities of public, private and social institutions affected (such as earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, seaquakes by a disruptive agent may be recovered and return to and mass wasting).1 Disasters are often described as a normal in the shortest period of time. This planning result of the combination of the exposure to a hazard; must be included in a document or series of documents the conditions of vulnerability that are present; and whose content aims at prevention, immediate response, insufficient capacity or measures to reduce or cope recovery and restoration, all supported by continuous with the potential negative consequences.3 training sessions and carrying out of drills.2 Disruptive natural phenomenon: Disruptive agent Corrective disaster risk management: Management produced by nature.2 activities that address and seek to correct or reduce 53 Donation: Contribution in money or in kind performed decision-making processes with a view to limiting or by different physical or legal persons, either domestic reducing the adverse impacts of the project or program. or international, through authorized collection centers Environmental impact assessment is a policy tool or credit institutions, to assist states, municipalities or that provides evidence and analysis of environmental communities facing an emergency or disaster.2 impacts of activities from conception to decision- making. It is utilized extensively in national programming Drill: Representation through simulation of the and for international development assistance projects. response actions previously planned with the purpose Environmental impact assessments should include of observing, testing and correcting an efficient detailed risk assessments and provide alternatives, response when facing possible real emergency or solutions or options to deal with identified problems.3 disaster situations. It implies the setting of a scenario in a specific plot of land designed on the basis of risk Evacuee: Person who, in a preventive and provisional analysis and identification, and of the vulnerability of the manner upon the possibility or certainty of an vulnerable systems.2 emergency or disaster, leaves or is sent away from its usual place of residence to ensure their safety and Early warning system: Set of capacities necessary survival.2 to generate and disseminate timely and meaningful warning information with the purpose of allowing Exposure: Number of people and natural and material individuals, communities and organizations exposed to a assets that are liable to loss or damage.1 The United hazard to be prepared and act in an appropriate manner Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR) and with enough anticipation to reduce the possibility defines the degree of exposure as the people, property, of losses or damages. This definition covers the different systems, or other elements present in hazard zones factors necessary to achieve an efficient response to that are thereby subject to potential losses. Measures the warnings issued. A people-centered early warning of exposure can include the number of people or types system necessarily comprises four key elements: of assets in an area. These can be combined with the risk knowledge; continuous follow-up (monitoring), specific vulnerability of the exposed elements to any analysis and forecasting of the hazards; communication particular hazard to estimate the quantitative risks or dissemination of alerts and warnings; and local associated with that hazard in the area of interest.3 capabilities to respond to the warnings received. The expression “end-to-end warning system” is also used Extensive risk*: The widespread risk associated with to emphasize the fact that warning systems need to the exposure of dispersed populations to repeated encompass all steps from hazard detection through to or persistent hazard conditions of low or moderate community response.3 intensity, often of a highly localized nature, which can lead to debilitating cumulative disaster impacts. Emergency: Abnormal situation that may cause Extensive risk is mainly a characteristic of rural areas damages to society and bring about excessive risk to and urban margins where communities are exposed to, the safety and integrity of the population, generally and vulnerable to, recurring localized floods, landslides associated with, or caused by, the imminence, the high storms or drought. Extensive risk is often associated with probability or the presence of a disruptive agent.2 poverty, urbanization and environmental degradation. See also “intensive risk”.3 Environmental degradation: The reduction of the capacity of the environment to meet social and Forecast: Definite statement or statistical estimate of ecological objectives and needs. Degradation of the the likely occurrence of a future event or conditions for a environment can alter the frequency and intensity specific area. In meteorology a forecast refers to a future of natural hazards and increase the vulnerability of condition, whereas a warning refers to a potentially communities. The types of human-induced degradation dangerous future condition.3 are varied and include land misuse, soil erosion and loss, desertification, wildland fires, loss of biodiversity, Foresight: Awareness of the risks that may occur deforestation, mangrove destruction, land, water and and of the need to face them through stages of risk air pollution, climate change, sea level rise and ozone identification, prevention, mitigation, preparedness, depletion.3 emergency response, recovery and reconstruction.2 Environmental impact assessment: Process by which Geological hazard: Geological process or phenomenon the environmental consequences of a proposed that may cause loss of life, injury or other health impacts, project or program are evaluated. This assessment property damage, loss of livelihoods and services, social is undertaken as an integral part of planning and and economic disruption, or environmental damage. 54 | MX Technical Assistance on Comprehensive Risk Management Geological hazards include internal earth processes, and asset loss. Intensive risk is mainly a characteristic of such as earthquakes, volcanic activity and emissions, large cities or densely populated areas that are not only and related geophysical processes such as mass exposed to intense hazards such as strong earthquakes, movements, landslides, rockfall, surface collapses, and active volcanoes, heavy floods, tsunamis, or major storms, debris or mud flows. Hydrometeorological factors are but also have high levels of vulnerability to these hazards.3 important contributors to some of these processes. Tsunamis are difficult to categorize; although they are Internal Program of Civil Protection: Operation and triggered by undersea earthquakes and other geological planning instrument, circumscribed to the incumbency events, they are essentially an oceanic process that is of an office, entity, institution or body of the public, manifested as a coastal water-related hazard.3 private or social sector, composed of the operational plan for the Civil Protection Internal Unit, the plan for Geological phenomenon: Disruptive agent that is directly the continuity of operations and the contingency plan, caused by the actions and movements of the earth’s and that is aimed at mitigating previously identified crust. This category includes earthquakes, volcanic risks and defining preventive and response actions eruptions, tsunamis, slope instability, flows, collapses and in order to be ready to respond in the case of any landslides, sinking, subsidence and cracking.2 emergency or disaster.2 Hazard: Probability of occurrence of a potentially Land-use planning: Process undertaken by public harmful disruptive agent of a certain intensity during a authorities to identify, evaluate and decide on certain period and in a specific area.2 It is measured by different options for the use of land, including its intensity and frequency (CENAPRED, 2009).1 consideration of long term economic, social and environmental objectives and the implications for Hydrometeorological hazard: Process or phenomenon different communities and interest groups, and the of atmospheric, hydrological or oceanographic subsequent formulation and promulgation of plans that nature that may cause loss of life, injury or other describe the permitted or acceptable uses. Land-use health impacts, property damage, loss of livelihoods planning is an important contributor to sustainable and services, social and economic disruption, or development. It involves studies and mapping; environmental damage. Hydrometeorological hazards analysis of economic, environmental and hazard data; include tropical cyclones (also known as “typhoons” and formulation of alternative land-use decisions; and “hurricanes”), thunderstorms, hailstorms, tornadoes, design of long-range plans for different geographical blizzards, heavy snowfall, avalanches, coastal storm and administrative scales. Land-use planning can help surges, floods (including flash floods), drought, to mitigate disasters and reduce risks by discouraging heat waves and cold spells. Hydrometeorological settlements and construction of key installations in conditions also can be a factor in other hazards such hazard-prone areas, including consideration of service as landslides, wildland fires, locust plagues, epidemics, routes for transport, power, water, sewage and other and in the transport and dispersal of toxic substances critical facilities.3 and volcanic eruption material.3 Local offices: Political-administrative bodies organized Hydrometeorological phenomenon: Disruptive agent by the Federal District Government Statute.2 caused by the action of atmospheric agents, such as tropical cyclones, extreme rainfall, pluvial, fluvial, coastal Ministry: Ministry of the Interior of the Federal and lake floods; snow storms, hailstorms, sandstorms Government.2 and electric storms; frosts; droughts; heat and cold waves; and tornadoes.2 Mitigation: Any action oriented towards lessening the impacts or damages caused by the presence of a Imminent risk: That which, in the opinion of a specialized disruptive agent on a vulnerable agent.2 The adverse technical entity, requires the performance of immediate impacts of hazards often cannot be prevented fully, but actions due to conditions or high probabilities of adverse their scale or severity can be substantially lessened by effects occurring on a vulnerable agent.2 various strategies and actions. Mitigation measures encompass engineering techniques and hazard-resistant Insurance: Risk transfer and management instrument.2 construction as well as improved environmental policies and public awareness. It should be noted that in climate Intensive risk*: Risk associated with the exposure of change policy, “mitigation” is defined differently, being large concentrations of people and economic activities the term used for the reduction of greenhouse gas to intense hazard events, which can lead to potentially emissions that are the source of climate change.3 catastrophic disaster impacts involving high mortality 55 National Center: National Center for Disaster Prevention.2 may be coupled, as in the flood caused by a hurricane or the tsunami that is created by an earthquake.3 National Committee: Civil Protection National Committee for Emergencies and Disasters.2 Non-structural measures: Any measure not involving physical construction that uses knowledge, practice National Coordination: National Coordination of Civil or agreement to reduce risks and impacts, in particular Protection, Ministry of the Interior.2 through policies and laws, public awareness raising, training and education. Common structural measures National Council: National Council for Civil Protection.2 for disaster risk reduction include dams, flood levies, ocean wave barriers, earthquake-resistant construction National Inventory of Infrastructure Needs: Inventory and evacuation shelters. Common non-structural made up of infrastructure works that are considered measures include building codes, land-use planning strategic to reduce the risk of the population and its laws and their enforcement, research and assessment, assets.2 information resources, and public awareness programs.3 National Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction: Generic Person affected: Person who has being subject to the term for national mechanisms for coordination and effect of a disruptive agent, whether they have suffered policy guidance on disaster risk reduction that are physical injuries or damages to its assets in such a way multi-sectoral and inter-disciplinary in nature, with that they require external assistance for their survival. public, private and civil society participation involving This condition is considered to last while the emergency all concerned entities within a country. This definition situation is deemed ongoing or until such time when the is derived from footnote 10 of the Hyogo Framework. normal situation prior to the disaster is restored.2 Disaster risk reduction requires the knowledge, capacities and inputs of a wide range of sectors and Preparedness: Activities and measures taken in advance organizations, including United Nations agencies to ensure an efficient response upon the impact of a present at the national level, as appropriate. Most disruptive phenomenon in the short-, medium- and sectors are affected directly or indirectly by disasters long-term.2 and many have specific responsibilities that impinge upon disaster risks. National platforms provide a means Prevention: Set of actions and mechanisms to enhance national action to reduce disaster risks, implemented in advance to the occurrence of the and they represent the national mechanism for the disruptive agents with the purpose of recognizing, International Strategy for Disaster Reduction.3 identifying, removing or reducing the hazards or risks; preventing or mitigating their destructive impact on National Program: National Program of Civil Protection.2 people, assets and infrastructure; and foreseeing the social processes involved in their construction.2 National Risk Atlas: Comprehensive information system on disruptive agents and expected damages, resulting Prospective disaster risk management*: Management from a spatial and time-frame analysis of the interaction activities that address and seek to avoid the between hazards, vulnerability and degree of exposure development of new or increased disaster risks. This of vulnerable agents.2 concept focuses on addressing risks that may develop in the future if risk reduction policies are not put in National System: National System of Civil Protection.2 place, rather than on the risks that are already present and which can be managed and reduced now. See also Natural hazard: Natural process or phenomenon that “Corrective disaster risk management”.3 may cause loss of life, injury or other health impacts, property damage, loss of livelihoods and services, social Public awareness: The extent of common knowledge and economic disruption, or environmental damage. about disaster risks, the factors that lead to disasters Natural hazards are a sub-set of all hazards. The term and the actions that can be taken individually and is used to describe actual hazard events as well as the collectively to reduce exposure and vulnerability to latent hazard conditions that may give rise to future hazards. Public awareness is a key factor in effective events. Natural hazard events can be characterized by disaster risk reduction. Its development is pursued, for their magnitude or intensity, speed of onset, duration, example, through the development and dissemination and area of extent. For example, earthquakes have short of information through media and educational channels, durations and usually affect a relatively small region, the establishment of information centers, networks, and whereas droughts are slow to develop and fade away community or participation actions, and advocacy by and often affect large regions. In some cases hazards senior public officials and community leaders.3 56 | MX Technical Assistance on Comprehensive Risk Management Reconstruction: Temporary action aimed at reaching that together could potentially harm exposed people, the normal social and economic environment that was property, services, livelihoods and the environment on present among the population before suffering the which they depend. Risk assessments (and associated effects produced by a disruptive agent in a determined risk mapping) include a review of the technical area or jurisdiction. This process should seek, as far as characteristics of hazards such as their location, possible, to reduce the existing risks and to ensure that intensity, frequency and probability; the analysis of no new risks are generated by improving, to that end, the exposure and vulnerability including the physical social, pre-existing conditions.2 health, economic and environmental dimensions; and the evaluation of the effectiveness of prevailing and Recovery: Process initiated during the emergency that alternative coping capacities in respect to likely risk consists of actions aimed at returning the affected scenarios. This series of activities is sometimes known as community to normalcy.2 “risk analysis process”.3 Regulatory Agent: Actions, instruments, rules, works, Risk identification: Determination and assessment of and, in general, anything aimed at protecting people, probable damages or losses on vulnerable agents and assets, strategic infrastructure, productive plants and their geographical distribution through the analysis of the environment; at reducing risks and at controlling and hazards and vulnerability.2 preventing the adverse effects of a disruptive agent.2 Risk management financial instruments: Funding and Residual risk: The risk that remains in unmanaged form, co-funding programs and mechanisms the Federal even when effective disaster risk reduction measures Government counts on to support federal public are in place, and for which emergency response and instances and states in the performance of projects and recovery capacities must be maintained. The presence actions derived from comprehensive risk management of residual risk implies a continuing need to develop and for the prevention of and response to emergency support effective capacities for emergency services, situations or natural disasters.2 preparedness, response and recovery together with socio-economic policies such as safety nets and risk Risk reduction: Preventive intervention of people, transfer mechanisms.3 institutions and communities that allows for the removal or reduction, through preparation and Resilience: Ability of a system, community or society mitigation actions, of the adverse impact of the potentially exposed to hazards to resist, absorb, disasters. It contemplates risk identification and adapt to and recover from the effects of a hazard in a vulnerability analysis, resilience and response abilities; timely and efficient manner through the preservation the development of a civil protection culture; public and restoration of its essential and functional basic commitment and the development of an institutional structures with a view to achieve a better protection in framework; the implementation of environmental the future and to improve risk reduction measures.2 protection, land use and urban planning measures; critical infrastructure protection; generation of alliances Retrofitting: Reinforcement or upgrading of existing and development of financial instruments and risk structures to become more resistant and resilient to transfer; and the development of warning systems.2 the damaging effects of hazards. Retrofitting requires consideration of the design and function of the Risk transfer and management instruments: Financial structure, the stresses that the structure may be subject mechanisms or programs that enable public entities to from particular hazards or hazard scenarios, and the from the different levels of government to share or cover practicality and costs of different retrofitting options. their catastrophic risks and transfer the total or partial Examples of retrofitting include adding bracing to stiffen cost to national or international financial institutions.2 walls, reinforcing pillars, adding steel ties between walls and roofs, installing shutters on windows, and improving Risk transfer: The process of formally or informally the protection of important facilities and equipment.3 shifting the financial consequences of particular risks from one party to another whereby a household, Risk area: Specific territory where there is probability community, enterprise or state authority will obtain of damage occurring as a consequence of a disruptive resources from the other party after a disaster occurs, phenomenon.2 in exchange for ongoing or compensatory social or financial benefits provided to that other party. Insurance Risk assessment: A methodology to determine the is a well-known form of risk transfer, where coverage of a nature and extent of risk by analyzing potential hazards risk is obtained from an insurer in exchange for ongoing and evaluating existing conditions of vulnerability premiums paid to the insurer. Risk transfer can occur 57 informally within family and community networks where flooding, land subsidence and drought, that arise from there are reciprocal expectations of mutual aid by means the interaction of natural hazards with overexploited or of gifts or credit, as well as formally where governments, degraded land and environmental resources. This term insurers, multi-lateral banks and other large risk-bearing is used for the circumstances where human activity is entities establish mechanisms to help cope with losses increasing the occurrence of certain hazards beyond in major events. Such mechanisms include insurance their natural probabilities. Evidence points to a growing and re-insurance contracts, catastrophe bonds, disaster burden from such hazards. Socio-natural contingent credit facilities and reserve funds, where the hazards can be reduced and avoided through wise costs are covered by premiums, investor contributions, management of land and environmental resources.3 interest rates and past savings, respectively.3 Socio-organizational phenomenon: Disruptive agent Risk: Probable losses or damages a vulnerable agent caused by human errors or premeditated actions can sustain as a result of the interaction between its that take place in large crowds or mass population vulnerability and the presence of a disruptive agent.2 movements, such as demonstrations of social dissent, Combination of the probability of an event and its mass population gatherings, terrorism, sabotage, negative consequences. This definition closely follows vandalism, aviation, maritime or land accidents, and the definition of the ISO/IEC Guide 73. The word “risk” disruption or alteration of basic services or strategic has two distinctive connotations: in popular usage the infrastructure.2 emphasis is usually placed on the concept of chance or possibility, such as in “the risk of an accident”; whereas Strategic infrastructure: Infrastructure that is essential in technical settings the emphasis is usually placed on for the delivery of public goods and services and the consequences, in terms of “potential losses” for whose destruction or disruption is a threat against some particular cause, place and period. Specifically, national security.2 In turn, the UNISDR uses the “disaster risk” is defined as the potential disaster losses, term “critical facilities” to refer to primary physical in lives, health status, livelihoods, assets and services, structures, technical facilities and systems which are which could occur to a particular community or society socially, economically or operationally essential to the over some specified future time period.3 functioning of a society or community, both in routine circumstances and in the extreme circumstances Sanitary-ecological phenomenon: Disturbing agent of an emergency. Critical facilities are elements of caused by the pathogenic action of biological agents the infrastructure that support essential services that affect the population, animals and crops, and in a society. They include such things as transport cause death or health disorders. Epidemics and plagues systems, air and sea ports, electricity, water supply and constitute a sanitary disaster in the strict sense of the communications systems, hospitals and health clinics, term. This category also includes air, water, soil and food and centers for fire, police and public administration contamination.2 services.3 Severe risk area: Human settlement located in an Structural measures: Any physical construction to area of severe risk posed by a possible disruptive reduce or avoid possible impacts of hazards, or the phenomenon.2 application of engineering techniques to achieve hazard Shelter: Facility set up to provide protection to people resistance and resilience in structures or systems.3 that have had their household affected by the effects of disruptive phenomena and where they stay until the Temporary shelter: Facility prepared to provide recovery or reconstruction of their household.2 temporary protection and welfare to persons that do not have immediate access to a safe room in case of Shelter: Facility set up to provide protection to people imminent risk or in case of occurrence of an emergency, that have had their household affected by the effects casualty or disaster.2 of disruptive phenomena and where they stay until the recovery or reconstruction of their household.2 Vulnerability: Susceptibility or proneness of a vulnerable agent to sustain damages or losses upon the presence Sheltered: A person who, temporarily, receives shelter, of a disruptive agent, which is determined by physical, refuge, lodging and protection against the hazard, social, economic and environmental factors.2 There imminence or occurrence of a disruptive agent.2 are many aspects of vulnerability, arising from various physical, social, economic, and environmental factors. Socio-natural hazard*: The phenomenon of Examples may include poor design and construction of increased occurrence of certain geophysical and buildings, inadequate protection of assets, lack of public hydrometeorological hazard events, such as landslides, information and awareness, limited official recognition 58 | MX Technical Assistance on Comprehensive Risk Management of risks and preparedness measures, and disregard for wise environmental management. Vulnerability varies significantly within a community and over time. This definition identifies vulnerability as a characteristic of the element of interest (community, system or asset) which is independent of its exposure. However, in common use the word is often used more broadly to include the element’s exposure.3 *Emerging new concepts that are not in widespread use but are of growing professional relevance. The definition of these terms remains to be widely consulted upon and may change in future. ANNEX 3 REFERENCES 1. Ballesteros L.F. 2011. Catálogo de Mecanismos del Gobierno Federal Relacionados con la Reducción del Riesgo de Desastres Naturales en México. 2. Ley General de Protección Civil. Diario Oficial. June 2012 3. UNISDR, 2009. Terminology on Risk Reduction 59 Document funded as part of the Technical Assistance Agreement between the Government of Mexico and the World Bank between 2012 and 2014