MALAWI Poverty Measurement using the Fourth Integrated Household Survey 2016/17 (IHS4) NATIONAL STATISTICAL Government of Malawi OFFICE KEY MESSAGES Malawi Poverty Estimation 2016/17 Moderate poverty did not change. There has been no change in moderate poverty nationally and in urban centers, but poverty has increased in rural areas. Poverty rate (%) 56.6 59.5 50.7 51.5 17.3 17.7 2010/11 2016/17 2010/11 2016/17 2010–/11 2016/17 National Rural Urban Inequality in consumption has decreased substantially. Ultra-poverty rate Moderate poverty has not changed has declined as the much. A reasonable share of individuals A > B ➔ share people with very low consumption has A ≈ + B C ➔ have moved out of ultra-poverty, but they still remain under the moderate decreased. poverty line. 0.8 Inequality has decreased Consumption distribution has become more concentrated in 2016/17. Inequality decreased, particularly in C 0.6 rural areas. Gini coefficient National Rural Urban B 2010 0.45 0.38 0.49 Density 0.4 2016 0.42 0.32 0.50 Ultra-poverty line 0.2 A 2016–17 (IHS4) Poverty line 2010–11 (IHS3) 0 9 11 13 15 Per capita consumption (in logarithm) Ultra-poverty rate has declined. Ultra-poverty rate There has been 24.5 20.1 28.1 23.8 a substantial 4.3 4.1 decrease in rural ultra-poverty. 2010/11 2016/17 2010/11 2016/17 2010/11 2016/17 National Rural Urban NATIONAL STATISTICAL July 2018 Government of Malawi OFFICE KEY MESSAGES Malawi Poverty Estimation 2016/17 Malawi experienced economic contraction in 3 of the 7 years during the study period. (2010–2016) 6.9 6.6 5.9 6.8 4.9 5.2 5.7 GDP Growth (%) 2.8 2.5 4.3 1.9 Agriculture Population -0.1 -2.0 -2.3 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Data source: World Development Indicators The adverse effects of the 2016 drought is shown by the high rural poverty rates in the lean seasons. Food price hikes observed in urban areas might be responsible for the high urban poverty rate during July–December. Drought National Rural Urban Price hike 63.9 60.8 57.9 56.7 53.7 49.8 Poverty rate (%) 48.0 42.0 26.7 18.7 15.5 10.6 Apr–Jun, 2016 Jul–Sept, 2016 Oct–Dec, 2016 Jan–Apr, 2017 IHS4 Survey Quarters Poverty lines per person per month. Living cost has increased by 271.4% between March 2010 and April 2016. March 2010 755 MWK Ultra-poverty line April 2016 2,803 MWK March 2010 1,217 MWK Moderate poverty line April 2016 4,518 MWK NATIONAL STATISTICAL July 2018 Government of Malawi OFFICE METHODOLOGY Malawi Poverty Estimation 2016/17 To construct food and non-food consumption aggregates, the same methodology as in IHS3 (2010/11) is applied. FOOD NON-FOOD 136 food items non-durable goods and services Include housing utilities such as water, electricity, gas, firewood, and charcoal; clothing and footwear; transport service including operation cost of private vehicles; communication services such as mobile phone services; recreation; education; health services; hotel and lodging; and miscellaneous goods and services. 22 durable goods The food consumption aggregate includes food items acquired from any source including purchase, house rent own production, gift and others. Unit values (total expenditure divided by quantity) of purchased food items are used to convert similar non-purchased food items into monetary value. NATIONAL STATISTICAL July 2018 Government of Malawi OFFICE