Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report MX Moderniz of National Meteorological Serv (MOMET) (P126487) MX Moderniz of National Meteorological Serv (MOMET) (P126487) LATIN AMERICA AND CARIBBEAN | Mexico | Water Global Practice | IBRD/IDA | Specific Investment Loan | FY 2012 | Seq No: 6 | ARCHIVED on 16-Nov-2015 | ISR19073 | Implementing Agencies: Key Dates Key Project Dates Bank Approval Date:17-May-2012 Effectiveness Date:20-Dec-2012 Planned Mid Term Review Date:31-Jul-2015 Actual Mid-Term Review Date:16-Feb-2015 Original Closing Date:31-Dec-2017 Revised Closing Date:31-Dec-2017 Project Development Objectives Project Development Objective (from Project Appraisal Document) The Project Development Objective (PDO) is to strengthen the human resource, institutional, and infrastructural capacity of the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional to meet the increasing demand for timely and accurate weather and climate information for the purposesof water resources management and disaster risk management in the face of climate change and climate variability. Has the Project Development Objective been changed since Board Approval of the Project Objective? No PHRPDODEL Components Name Strengthening Institutional Capacity and Client Communications:(Cost $19.60 M) Development of Climate Regional Capacity:(Cost $28.20 M) Modernizing Observation Infrastructure:(Cost $41.00 M) Improving Meteorological Forecasts:(Cost $16.20 M) Overall Ratings Name Previous Rating Current Rating Progress towards achievement of PDO  Moderately Unsatisfactory  Moderately Unsatisfactory Overall Implementation Progress (IP)  Moderately Unsatisfactory  Moderately Unsatisfactory Overall Risk Rating  Moderate  Moderate 11/16/2015 Page 1 of 8 Public Disclosure Copy Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report MX Moderniz of National Meteorological Serv (MOMET) (P126487) Implementation Status and Key Decisions Project implementation is still slow. However, implementation arrangements are stronger and the National Weather Service has a clearer implementation plan. Procurement activities are more structured and better monitored by the Project Coordination Office. The recent mission noted that PCO is better staffed and the additional support provided by CONAGUA has helped improve its performance. However recent budget reduction might impact project performance in the last quarter. To support the PCO in the technical and technological integration of the project components, the contracting of an international firm to support is underway. Nevertheless, the multi-year (plurianualidad) clearance needed for the contracting of the firm is still pending. The procurement activities planned for 2015 would represen an improvement in disbursement. It is important to mention that the successful implementation of these activities requires securing the budget that has been currently assigned to SMN for 2015 and 2016. The availability of these resources would help to keep the current inertia for project implementation. To follow up closely on project implementation a supervision mission is planned for December 7, 2015. During this mission the Bank will review the completion of the project milestones agreed during the Mid Term Review Mission and as a result of this, the terms of a project restructuring, that might include partial cancellation of project proceeds, will be agreed with CONAGUA, SMN and SHCP . 11/16/2015 Page 2 of 8 Public Disclosure Copy Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report MX Moderniz of National Meteorological Serv (MOMET) (P126487) Risks Systematic Operations Risk-rating Tool Risk Category Rating at Approval Previous Rating Current Rating Political and Governance  --  Moderate  Moderate Macroeconomic  --  Low  Low Sector Strategies and Policies  --  Low  Low Technical Design of Project or Program  --  Moderate  Moderate Institutional Capacity for Implementation and Sustainability  --  Moderate  Substantial Fiduciary  --  Low  Low Environment and Social  --  Low  Low Stakeholders  --  Moderate  Moderate Other  --  --  -- Overall  --  Moderate  Moderate Results Project Development Objective Indicators PHINDPDOTBL  SMN is operating an evaluation system using indicators to measure quality of service (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 0.00 4.00 10.00 Date 31-May-2012 23-Apr-2015 18-Sep-2015 31-Dec-2017 Comments SMN has started the procurement process for the hiring of a firm that would evaluate the use and user satisfaction of 10 strategic hydromet products. However the mission partcicipated in a workshop where users satisfaction related to specific products SMN and sectors was measured including usefulness and accuracy. 11/16/2015 Page 3 of 8 Public Disclosure Copy Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report MX Moderniz of National Meteorological Serv (MOMET) (P126487) PHINDPDOTBL  Accuracy of severe weather warnings increases to 80%. (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value -- -- 60.00 -- Date 31-May-2012 23-Apr-2015 18-Sep-2015 31-Dec-2017 Comments SMN has a system that allows to quantify the percentage of correct severe weather warnings. Today the accuracy is near 60%. Although the team is awaiting more data confirming this figure. PHINDPDOTBL  The percentage of climatology data generated by SMN that enters into the WMO international system used in GCM/GFM. (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 45.00 45.00 76.00 95.00 Date 31-May-2012 23-Apr-2015 18-Sep-2015 31-Dec-2017 Comments The mission got data of volume of hydromet data from SMN ingested into the WMO international system used for running global circulation models (GCM/GFM) PHINDPDOTBL  Level of strategic clients’ satisfaction with SMN’s services increases. (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 20.00 20.00 60.00 80.00 Date 31-May-2012 23-Apr-2015 18-Sep-2015 31-Dec-2017 Comments In order to establish a better methodology to measure this indicator, a workshop and a survey were conducted with strategic clients of the SMN weather and climate products. As a result the metrics were changed for this indicator. Using WMO guidelines a 1 to 5 scale was established were 5 is the highest level of satisfaction and 1 the lower. As a result of the workshop it can be said that the users are relatively satisfied with the products from SMN. This corresponds to a 3 in the WMO scale. This would represent 60 in the 0 to 100 scale used for this indicator. 11/16/2015 Page 4 of 8 Public Disclosure Copy Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report MX Moderniz of National Meteorological Serv (MOMET) (P126487) PHINDPDOTBL  Availability of the telemetric weather observations system (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 50.00 50.00 75.00 85.00 Date 31-May-2012 23-Apr-2015 18-Sep-2015 31-Dec-2017 Comments During the last mission the team got detailed information bout the performance of the different observation networks and advise on how to improve the measurement of these indicators. Overall Comments Intermediate Results Indicators PHINDIRITBL SMN has prepared and adopted results of an Institutional Restructuring Plan including the roadmap for piloting the creation of Regional Hydrometeorological Forecast Centers in five priority regions. (Yes/No, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value N N N Y Date 31-May-2012 23-Apr-2015 18-Sep-2015 31-Dec-2017 Comments Restructuring plan for SMN drafted but not adopted 11/16/2015 Page 5 of 8 Public Disclosure Copy Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report MX Moderniz of National Meteorological Serv (MOMET) (P126487) PHINDIRITBL  SMN awards contract for procurement and oversees installation of new automatic weather stations (AWSs). (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 0.00 61.00 198.00 Date 31-May-2012 23-Apr-2015 18-Sep-2015 31-Dec-2017 Comments 47 AWS were procured with local resources in 2012 and 14 with project funds in 2014. An invitation for bids for procuring 299 AWS for an estimated value of 20 Million dollars have been internationally advertised and published. PHINDIRITBL  SMN develops and begins providing climate products to specialized users (e.g., water users, farmers, municipalities). (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 0.00 10.00 85.00 Date 31-May-2012 23-Apr-2015 18-Sep-2015 31-Dec-2017 Comments SMN is preparing several products for specialized users that would be completed in 2015. This is mainly a drought monitor and products to inform about El NiÑo impacts. PHINDIRITBL  SMN prepares and implements Integrated Information and Early Warning System in 4 Pilot basins (Yaqui, Veracruzanos Rivers, Valley of Mexico Coast of Chiapas (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.00 Date 31-May-2012 23-Apr-2015 18-Sep-2015 31-Dec-2017 Comments During the last Mission there was an agreement with Valle of Mexico Basin Authority to advance the preparation of a pilot project to be funded by Component 4. Overall Comments Data on Financial Performance 11/16/2015 Page 6 of 8 Public Disclosure Copy Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report MX Moderniz of National Meteorological Serv (MOMET) (P126487) Disbursements (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Currency Original Revised Cancelled Disbursed Undisbursed Disbursed P126487 IBRD-81650 Effective USD 105.26 105.26 0.00 4.36 100.90 4% Key Dates (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Approval Date Signing Date Effectiveness Date Orig. Closing Date Rev. Closing Date P126487 IBRD-81650 Effective 17-May-2012 03-Aug-2012 20-Dec-2012 31-Dec-2017 31-Dec-2017 Cumulative Disbursements Restructuring History There has been no restructuring to date. Related Project(s) There are no related projects. 11/16/2015 Page 7 of 8 Public Disclosure Copy Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report MX Moderniz of National Meteorological Serv (MOMET) (P126487) 11/16/2015 Page 8 of 8 Public Disclosure Copy