SOUTH ASIA CLIMATE CHANGE RISKS IN WATER MANAGEMENT Climate Risks and Solutions: Adaptation Frameworks for Water Resources Planning, Development and Management in South Asia © 2017 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. 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June 2017 SOUTH ASIA CLIMATE CHANGE RISKS IN WATER MANAGEMENT Climate Risks and Solutions: Adaptation Frameworks for Water Resources Planning, Development and Management in South Asia Summary Report Rafik Hirji, Alan Nicol, and Richard Davis “it i s n ot t h e s t r o n g e s t o f t h e s p ec i e s t h at s u rv i v e s , n o r t h e m o s t i n t e l l i g e n t t h at s u rv i v e s . i t i s t h e o n e t h at i s m o s t a da p ta b l e to c h a n g e ”. c h a r l e s da r w i n . TA B L E O F CO NTE NTS Table of Contents i List of Boxes iii List of Figures iv List of Tables v Acronyms and Abbreviations vi Foreword viii Acknowledgements ix Executive Summary 1 1. Water Management and Climate Change 8 1.1. South Asia’s Water Development and Management Challenge 8 1.2. South Asia’s Water Management Strategy 9 1.3. Climate Change: Management Risks and Future Costs 11 1.4. Adaptation and Water Management 12 1.5. Objectives 13 1.6. Methodology 13 1.7. Audience 14 1.8. Report Structure 14 2. Water Resources, Climate Risks and Uncertainty 15 2.1. South Asian Water Resources: Key Challenges 15 2.2. Climate Change Risks 17 2.3. Climate Drivers of Hydrological Change 17 2.4. Uncertainty in Climate Change Information and Knowledge 18 2.5. Reliability of climate change projections 19 2.6. Variability of the monsoons 19 3. Socio-economic and Environmental Drivers of Water Demand and Supply 20 3.1. Water uses and demand 20 3.2. Socio-economic drivers of water demand 25 3.3. Environmental Drivers of Water Demand and Supply 27 4. Extreme Events under Climate Change 29 4.1. Droughts 29 4.2. Floods 30 4.3. Landslides/Mudslides 32 4.4. High Erosion Rates/Sedimentation 32 i 4.5. Climate change will aggravate all water-related extreme events 32 4.6. Climate Change Risks 33 5. Adaptation Framework for Water Resources Planning, Development and Management 34 5.1. Integrated Water Resources Management 35 5.2. Limitations of IWRM 37 5.3. IWRM and Climate Change 38 5.4. Adaptation Framework 40 6. Water Resources and Climate Knowledge 42 6.1. Main Findings 42 6.2. Recommendations 45 7. Water Resources and Climate Policies and Institutions 46 7.1. Main Findings 46 7.2. Recommendations 52 8. Water Resources Infrastructure 53 8.1. Main Findings 53 8.2. Recommendations 56 9. Water Resources Planning and Management 57 9.1. Main Findings 57 9.2. Recommendations 62 10. Communications, Education and Participation 63 10.1. Main Findings 63 10.2. Recommendations 64 11. Financing Climate Change Adaptation 65 11.1. Main Findings 65 11.2. Recommendations 66 12. Recommendations for Building Adaptation Capacity for the Water Sector 67 12.1. Water Resources Knowledge 67 12.2. Water Resources Policies and Institutions 68 12.3. Water Resources Infrastructure 68 12.4. Water Resources Planning and Management 68 12.5. Communication, Education and Participation 70 12.6. Adaptation Financing 70 References 71 Appendix 1 Water and Climate Change instruments reviewed 78 ii L I ST O F BOXES Box 1.1 - Economic Cost of Climate Change in South Asia 12 Box 1.2 - Groundwater and Drought and Climate Resilience 13 Box 2.1 - The IGB aquifer has immense natural storage 17 Box 2.2 - Climate Variability and Climate Change 18 Box 3.1 - Seasonal Estimates of Irrigation Water Demand in South Asia 21 Box 3.2 - South Asia is the world’s top exporter of groundwater 23 Box 4.1 - Seasonal Estimates of Irrigation Water Demand in South Asia 30 Box 4.2 - Bangladesh flooding 32 Box 5.1 - The main elements of South Asia’s water resources management strategy 34 Box 5.2 - Some of the key features of IWRM 37 Box 5.3 - Possible IWRM Activities to Respond to Climate Change 39 Box 6.1 - Informing Change in the Indus Basin 44 Box 6.2 - ICIMOD and Climate Change 44 Box 7.1 - Regional cooperation is a critical element in adaptation 49 Box 8.1 - The Decision Tree Approach and application to Upper Arun Hydropower project 55 Box 9.1 - The Rufiji Basin Plan, Tanzania 58 Box 9.2 - Adaptation Options for Groundwater 60 Box 9.3 - Improving Flood preparedness 61 Box 12.1 - Improving resilience to droughts 69 iii L I ST O F FI GU R ES Figure 3.1 - Monthly irrigation demand for Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra river basins 22 Figure 3.2 - Cumulative groundwater storage losses in the Indo-Gangetic basin aquifers 23 (NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory) Figure 3.3 - Change in population in the South Asian countries from 2015-2100 26 Figure 4.1 - Drought hazard area mapped using MODIS images 2003-2013 (Giriraj et al 29 2016) Figure 4.2 - Recurrent flood inundation extent mapped using MODIS time-series imagery 31 for South Asia. (Giriraj et al 2016) Figure 5.1 - Conceptual framework of integrated water resources management. (Global 36 Water Partnership 2000) iv L I ST O F TA B LES Table A.1 - Ranking of climate-related damage 2 Table 1.1 - South Asian GDP and Water Endowment 9 Table 2.1 - Water Resources in South Asian countries 16 Table 3.1 - Water uses in South Asian countries 22 Table 3.2 - Expected changes in water supply for irrigation by country and river basin 26 (% change in 2011-2050) Table 4.1 - Ranking of climate-related damage 33 Table 5.1 - Climate related risks to water resources and potential adaptation actions 40 Table 7.1 - Typology of institutional approaches in climate adaptation 51 v ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS ADB Asian Development Bank BCAS Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies BIDS Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies CEGIS Center for Environmental and Geographic Information Services CGWB Central Ground Water Board [India] CSE Centre for Science and Environment DFID Department for International Development EIA Environmental Impact Assessment FAO Food and Agriculture Organization GBM Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna river system GDP Gross Domestic Product GHG Green House Gases GLOF Glacial Lake Outburst Flood GoN Government of Nepal GWP Global Water Partnership HKH Hindu Kush Himalayas IBKP Indus Basin Knowledge Platform ICIMOD International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development IDS Integrated Development Society-Nepal IGB Indo Gangetic Basin IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IRWR internal renewable water resources IWMI International Water Management Institute IWRM Integrated Water Resources Management LAPA Local Adaptation Plan of Action MAR Managed Aquifer Recharge MCCICC Multi-stakeholder Climate Change Initiatives Coordination Committee MW Mega-watt NAPA National Adaptation Program of Action NAPCC National Action Plan on Climate Change NCCKMC National Climate Change and Knowledge Management Centre PMCCC Prime Minister’s Council on Climate Change vi SAARC South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation SACEP South Asia Co-operative Environment Programme SAPCC State Action Plan on Climate Change SAWGP South Asia Water Governance Programme SAWI South Asia Water Initiative SWEC Surface water entering the country TRWR Total Renewable Water Resources UN United Nations UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change WEF Water-Food-Energy WEFE Water-Food-Energy-Environment WUA Water User Association vii FO R E WO R D South Asia’s rich human and physical geography are tightly bound to the rivers that radiate out and down from the great Himalayan massif and the extensive Indo-Gangetic basin aquifers. Driving some of the largest irrigation systems in human history and nourishing populations and ecosystems straddling rich alluvial floodplains, the annual flood pulses of these rivers — the Ganga, Indus, Brahmaputra and Meghna amongst them — has determined the development of human civilizations and provided livelihood security for several millennia. More recently, groundwater from alluvial and hard-rock aquifers has augmented less reliable surface supplies for irrigation and become the primary source of rural, urban and industrial water supplies. These water resources are now rapidly changing, and this change brings heightened risk and uncertainty. Global warming is altering the behavior of the great ice mass — the cryosphere or ‘third pole’ — and is also affecting the pattern and behavior of monsoonal rains, river flow regimes, evaporation and demand patterns. Groundwater resources are under unprecedented pressure. The qualities of rivers and aquifers are deteriorating from contamination from communities, cities, industries and agriculture. Floods, droughts and cyclones cause devastation for millions. Climate extremes, together with changes in annual rainfall and sea-level rise, will affect the lives of over a billion people, increasing human insecurity and hindering the wider development efforts and economic growth directions of the region. These series of South Asia Water Initiative reports were commissioned to help support greater understanding of these change including ways in which better water resources management can enable more effective climate adaptation policy, practice, design and implementation across the countries of South Asia. The summary report has drawn from three background papers and a range of expert inputs from IWMI, the World Bank and international and regional climate and water resource management experts. By assessing available evidence and mapping the landscape of existing knowledge and policy approaches in South Asia, while keeping in mind key socio-economic and institutional contexts, this summary report and background papers inform public debate on climate change and water resources management in South Asia and provide valuable inputs to effective decision making. The hope is that the guidance and recommendations offered by the wider project, of which these reports form a part, will enable South Asian governments and societies to enhance their capacities for building resilience to further climate change — which is now inevitable — and ensure a more sustainable and secure future for the whole region. viii AC K N OW LE D GE M E NTS This summary report is part of the first phase of a two phased South Asia Water Initiative (SAWI) Technical Assistance (TA) project – Climate Risks and Solutions: Adaptation Frameworks for Water Resources Planning and Management in South Asia – to assess opportunities for adaptation to climate change in the water sector in Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. SAWI is a partnership between the governments of United Kingdom, Australia and Norway that supports a multi-donor trust fund that works to improve the management of the major Himalayan river systems of South Asia to achieve sustainable, fair and inclusive development, and climate resilience. Phase 1 of this TA was implemented by the World Bank and International Water Management Institute. Rafik Hirji (Senior Water Resources Specialist, World Bank) was the Task Team Leader. Alan Nicol (Theme Leader, Governance, Gender and Poverty, IMWI) led the IWMI team. This Summary Report (prepared by Rafik Hirji, Alan Nicol and Richard Davis, consultant), synthesizes findings and recommendations of three commissioned papers prepared by IWMI and World Bank teams: • Lacombe, G.; Chinnasamy, P.; Nicol, A. 2017. Climate Change Science, Knowledge and Impacts on Water Resources in South Asia: A review. Colombo, Sri Lanka: IWMI. • Davis, R; Hirji R. 2017. Water and Climate Change Policy Review. Colombo, Sri Lanka: IWMI. • Suhardiman, D.; de Silva, S.; Arulingam, I.; Rodrigo, S.; Nicol, A. 2017. Review of Water and Climate Adaptation Financing and Institutional Frameworks. Colombo, Sri Lanka: IWMI. Draft background papers and summary of main findings and recommendations were presented and reviewed at a regional stakeholder workshop organized by IWMI in Colombo, Sri Lanka on July 12th- 13th 2016 attended by 65 national, regional and international climate change and water resources experts, including over 20 representatives of governments in the region. The workshop feedback and comments helped in shaping the revised drafts of the background papers and summary report. The many individuals who reviewed the background papers and workshop participants who provided comments are recognized in the respective acknowledgment sections of the three papers and the final workshop report. This summary report has incorporated comments from the review meeting held in Washington, DC, on February 9, 2017 chaired by Martin Rama (Chief Economist, South Asia Region), including from peer reviewers - Richard Damania, Lead Economist, Omar Lyasse, Senior Economist, Nathan Le Engle, Senior Climate Change Specialist, and Professor Anil Markandya (Basque Centre for Climate Change), and other reviewers - including Pravin Karki, Senior Hydropower Specialist, Claudia Sadoff, Lead Economist, Bill Young, Lead Water Resources Specialist, Muthukamara S. Mani, Lead economist, and Masood Ahmad, Lead Hydropower Specialist. The comments from all reviewers and guidance from the meeting chair, SAWI Coordinators Bill Young and Halla Qaddumi, and SAWI Practice Managers Michael Haney (GWA09) and Meike Van Ginnekan (GWA06) is gratefully acknowledged. A special thanks goes to Indika Arulingam of IWMI for helping with the additional research following the review meeting, Cherise Pereira for assisting with formatting. ix E X E C U TI V E S UM M A RY wat e r m a n ag e m e n t i s a k e y d e v e lo p m e n t c h a l l e n g e i n s o u t h a s i a . t h e r eg i o n - one of the most d e n s e ly - p o p u l at e d a n d c l i m at e - v u l n e r a b l e pa rt s o f t h e w o r l d - h a s t h e w o r l d ’ s fa s t e s t g r o w i n g r eg i o n a l ec o n o m y a n d t h e l a r g e s t p r o p o rt i o n o f p o o r e s t p eo p l e . w i t h 23.7% o f t h e g lo b a l p o p u l at i o n , b u t o n ly 4.6% o f t h e w o r l d ’ s r e n e wa b l e wat e r r e s o u r c e s , t h e m a n ag e m e n t o f wat e r i s a k e y d e v e lo p m e n t c h a l l e n g e f o r s u s ta i n i n g g r o w t h , l i v e l i h o o d s a n d r e s i l i e n c e . t h e k e y f e at u r e s o f t h i s c h a l l e n g e a r e e n s u r i n g a r e l i a b l e s u p p ly o f wat e r f o r f o o d , p eo p l e , e n e r gy , a n d i n d u s t ry , a n d m a n ag i n g t h e c o n s eq u e n c e s o f e x t r e m e h y d r o lo g i c a l e v e n t s . c l i m at e c h a n g e w i l l c o m p o u n d t h i s c h a l l e n g e ; i t w i l l i m pac t , t h o u g h u n e v e n ly , wat e r s u p p ly , d e m a n d a n d q ua l i t y , a n d e x ac e r b at e e x t r e m e h y d r o lo g i c a l e v e n t s . The region is already facing severe water stress. The two largest economies – India and Pakistan – are With a highly variable monsoon, low water water scarce and many areas, including major cities, storage capacity, uncontrolled groundwater use, lack adequate water supplies. water supplies have become unreliable; water shortages are common; disputes, tensions and Demand management offers considerable room conflicts over water are growing; water levels to make better use of existing supplies through are declining; wetlands are drying; and water conservation, loss reduction, improved water use pollution is widespread and becoming severe from efficiencies, recycling and reuse. For example, lifting sewage, industrial effluents, and agro-chemicals - Pakistan’s irrigation efficiency from the current 40% and natural contaminants - arsenic, fluoride, and to 45% would save 5.8 BCM annually. Growing salinity. Urbanization is reducing groundwater demand for municipal, industrial and environmental recharge areas, rates and quality. water will add pressure for improvements in irrigation water use efficiency and hydropower operations. A hotspot for natural disasters, South Asia accounts for some 40% of globally-recorded events. It is Groundwater comprises only 13% of the total often hit with damaging floods, droughts, storms, renewable water resource but accounts for about and landslides causing loss of lives, destroying 40% of total water use. It supports 60% to 80% livelihoods, damaging property and infrastructure. of irrigation, rural and urban water supply. About Accelerated sedimentation reduces river and canal 62% of the region’s 555 BCM of annual renewable conveyance capacities and dam storage, reducing groundwater is pumped, making South Asia their economic life. the world’s largest abstractor of groundwater. Groundwater, key to the green revolution lifted Growing populations, economies, industries, millions out of poverty, is critical to the region’s urbanization and hydropower development is economy and is likely to become even more so as increasing the demand for water. By 2030, demand economies grow, populations increase, surface for water in the largest South Asian economies will supplies become less reliable, and climate changes. be double the available supplies. Irrigation uses 91% of total use, municipal and industrial water uses are Groundwater, a common pool resource, provides 7% and 2%. Although current regional water use is greater drought and climate resilience than surface only 27% of the current supply, these region-wide water, but remains highly undervalued. Aquifers have and country-wide data mask considerable diversity. large natural storage, are protected from evaporation Executive Summary 1 and better buffered against seasonal and annual emphasizing the need for a collaborative approach. climate variability. The Indo-Gangetic basin aquifers Third, all aspects of water resources - water quantity have immense natural storage capacity estimated and water quality, surface and groundwater, water to be 30,000km3 – which is over a hundred times source areas and water use – are inadequately the total storage (about 280km ) in all South Asian 3 protected and managed, adding to the need for an dams, reservoirs and tanks. This immense natural integrative approach. Fourth, South Asia’s diverse storage volume is equivalent to over 20 times climate and topographic regimes from the Himalayan the total annual flows of the Indus, Ganges and mountains with glaciers and snow fields to the arid Brahmaputra rivers combined. Yet groundwater regions of Afghanistan and Pakistan to the tropical receives inadequate policy and management coasts of India, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, leads to attention. Water policies are biased towards surface diverse issues and management responses. Fifth, water, and allocate the bulk of the budget for surface water related natural disasters - droughts and water infrastructure with groundwater management floods - continue to be addressed in a limited and receiving much smaller share of the funding. incremental manner, instead of through systematic planning, management and development, including Several other factors complicate water management transboundary planning and management. in South Asia. First, water management cuts across many sectors – agriculture, energy, environment, Each country faces a different risk profile from health, industry, land, rural and urban – and is also water-related climate change impacts. Table A.1 impacted by policies and actions taken outside the is a ranking of risks based on historical damage water sector (e.g., agriculture, energy, land use, trade from water-related extreme events and priorities in and foreign affairs). Addressing this requires a multi- climate change policy instruments. It does not take sectoral approach, beyond the confines of the water into account gradual changes that may occur as a sector, to equitably allocate water, and control and result of climate change, such as diminishing mean regulate use within sustainable limits. Second, the river flows or increasing irrigation water demand challenge encompasses working across numerous because of increased evapotranspiration from rising political and administrative jurisdictions – villages, temperatures. cities, districts, states, provinces and nations – Table A.1 - Ranking of climate-related risks Countries Risk level Afghanistan Bangladesh Bhutan India Nepal Pakistan Sri Lanka High Flash flood Riverine Landslide Drought GLOF Drought Storm/ risk level Landslide flood Flash flood Riverine Flash flood Groundwater Cyclone Riverine Storm/ GLOF flood Landslide depletion Riverine flood Cyclones Flash flood Landslide flood Costal floods Groundwater Coastal flood Siltation depletion Medium Drought Erosion Erosion/ Landslide Drought Riverine Flash flood risk level Erosion/ Drought Siltation Storm/ Erosion/ flood Landslide siltation Groundwater Riverine Cyclone Siltation GLOF Erosion/ Groundwater Depletion flood Coastal Groundwater Flash flood siltation depletion Coastal Drought aquifer depletion Erosion/ Drought aquifer salinization Siltation Coastal salinization Groundwater aquifer salinization salinization Low GLOF Flash flood Storm/ GLOF Riverine Coastal flood Groundwater risk level Storm/ Landslide cyclone Erosion/ flood Storm/ depletion Cyclone Groundwater Siltation Storm/ Cyclones depletion cyclone 2 Executive Summary Climate change will add to and/or magnify the resources planning, development and management current water management challenge. Warmer decision making under a changing climate. It places temperatures will increase evaporation (water loss) an emphasis on groundwater because it will become and evapotranspiration rates (water demand), alter even more important than it is now as a source of patterns of precipitation, river flows and aquifer water as climate changes, and it promotes planned recharge (water supply), affect water quality, as well conjunctive management of surface and groundwater. as increase the frequencies and intensities of floods, droughts, sedimentation, and landslides (extreme Establishing effective adaptation frameworks is events). Rising sea-levels and intense storms will a necessary first step for responding to climate salinize coastal aquifers (water quality). Hydrological change across the very different social, geographical non-stationarity will complicate river flow and and environmental contexts across the region. groundwater modelling and infrastructure design At the heart of this work is the establishment of a and operations. risk framework – with primary and secondary risks - against which effective adaptation options in Considerable uncertainty exists about the magnitude the water sector can be identified and developed, and even the direction of these changes. Some recognizing that the risk – and therefore adaption effects are well established – rising temperatures, needs landscape – is highly variegated both spatially accelerating snow and glacier melt, rising sea-levels, and dynamically over time. and increasing frequency and intensity of extreme events (storms and droughts). Others, including Effective adaptation framework must place emphasis changes in precipitation, river flow and groundwater on greater policy coherence and integration across recharge, and the dynamics of glacier melt are more multiple sectors as well as across different scales of uncertain as the processes are complex and not management. The major water dependent sectors well understood. Even with these uncertainties, – agriculture, water supply, energy, transport, the IPCC categorizes South Asia as the region at environment – need to develop (i) consistent policies greatest risk from climate change. Some changes for water sharing and water management and (ii) will be gradual and long term (e.g. changes in annual coordination mechanism for implementing these flows and salinity), others will be more punctuated policies. Policy coherence is also needed with those and severe (floods, droughts and landslides), and still sectors outside the water dependent family whose others (e.g., salinity intrusion, sedimentation, and decisions and actions affect water demand and landslides) irreversible. water management (e.g. food security, trade, land use, and energy). The overarching goal of this study was to use a collaborative process to build knowledge, tools and Given the uncertainties surrounding the impacts capacity that will assist governments in adapting to of climate change, the adaptation framework must climate change challenges in the water sector. It place emphasis on knowledge development and draws from three commissioned papers and builds adaptive learning and management. This includes on the output of a regional meeting convened in expanding water resources and climate monitoring 2016 which brought seven countries together to and interpretation as well as better sharing of discuss climate-related water management for existing scientific knowledge including across adaptation. It unpacks and addresses the nature of countries within shared basins, enabling better co- resulting policy, planning and operational challenges decision making even if not under one transboundary as regional governments and social systems attempt institutional umbrella. The large uncertainties in to adapt, mitigate and manage these challenges hydrological projections under climate change and ensure that sustainable water management imply that risk based methods, such as Decision remains a central pillar in economic development Tree analysis, should be adopted for investment and social stability. It provides an evidence-base decisions. It is also important to understand which on which to build future capacity to improve water drivers of demand – socioeconomic (economic Executive Summary 3 and population growth) or climate change – will Strong participation, education and communication be important in different circumstances in order to at all levels will be essential for tackling climate inform water allocation and development decisions. change. Some aspects of surface and groundwater Current knowledge suggests that the Indus basin resources development and management are best flows are likely to be impacted more by climate devolved to local stakeholders to promote collective change over the medium term, whereas the Ganges action, take advantage of their local knowledge and and Brahmaputra are likely to be impacted more by incentive for action, while other aspects such as socio economic drivers. sectoral coordination and transboundary need to be tackled at higher levels. The framework should also incorporate improved water resources planning and management given Effective water management will not happen without the opportunities for making better use of the adequate financing. One of the most important region’s existing water resources. Improved water drivers of future financing will be the mainstreaming use efficiency, recycling and reuse, emphasis on of climate adaptation into national development demand management (through pricing reforms, programs (OECD 2009). This also applies to water removal of perverse subsidies, and user education management for climate risk reduction and the and participation), and wider use of conjunctive development of key infrastructure. management of surface and groundwater, would all provide better access to water in areas likely to This adaptation framework is consistent with experience water shortages and contribute towards the principles of Integrated Water Resource more flexibility in responding to increased variability Management (IWRM). IWRM, one option in the in water availability. adaptation toolbox, advocates integration across water dependent sectors, supports and establishes Considerable and highly cost-effective adaptation multi-stakeholder engagement as water users, opportunities can be realized through systematically proposes multiple levels of management from the harnessing the benefits of the huge natural storage individual users of the resource up to the basin in South Asia’s aquifers. This requires properly scale, and embeds ideas of efficiency and equity understanding the resource base and its use, and in allocation including both demand and supply managing groundwater recharge, storage, and side management. This is no accident – a number discharge; protecting groundwater quality; and of authors have pointed out that a major part of managing groundwater demand. Comprehensive climate change adaptation in the water sector is water resources planning with a focus on promoting simply better water resources management, and wider and planned conjunctive use and management IWRM is a widely-accepted paradigm for improved of surface and groundwater needs to be prioritized. water management. Nevertheless, IWRM has been criticized because there are multiple interpretations Improved water use efficiency will not obviate of its concepts and because it is difficult to put many the need for new infrastructure for water storage concepts into practice. to meet the rising demands for water because of population growth, growing economies and Other options in the adaptation toolbox - the increasing prevalence of drought. Investments will water-energy-food (WEF) and water-energy-food- be needed for building, maintaining and extending environment (WEFE) nexus - also recognize the infrastructure (including single and multipurpose importance of cross-sector coordination, trade-offs dams and inter-basin transfer schemes) to regulate between different uses and the need to remove river flows, provide water for irrigation, domestic policy distortions. These options are however ill suited and industrial water supply, generate hydropower for dealing with hydrological characteristics that are and combat growing problems such as floods and important for promoting adaptation (e.g. dealing with sea level rise. extremes in hydrological variability, non-stationarity, improving conjunctive management of groundwater 4 Executive Summary and surface water) or with managing water at different to be fully harmonized. Water policies need to levels, including transboundary waters. advocate incorporation of climate change in water resources development, planning and management IWRM’s emphasis on coordination between water decisions while climate change policies should dependent sectors needs to be augmented with recognize the need for improved water management broader reforms to address policies and actions within a cooperative and cross-sectoral institutional outside the water dependent sectors. Examples of framework. Institutions implementing these policies such policies outside the water sector include energy need to be coordinated with the coordination policy (for electricity subsidies for farmers for food mechanisms properly defined, authorized, trained security), trade policies (promoting export of water and funded. South Asia with its many large and intensive crops) and land use policies (that encourage small transboundary rivers can benefit from taking development on groundwater recharge areas). a regional approach to climate change adaptation. Climate change adds to the hydrological uncertainty While IWRM is already enshrined as policy in nearly and will impact water resources management decision all South Asian countries, few of its principles are making. A risk-based decision framework needs implemented. Sector interests do not easily share to be adopted, using techniques, such as Decision decision making power, institutions are notoriously Tree Analysis, for infrastructure investments and for segmented and cross-sectoral coordination decision making more broadly. Strong links need arrangements are weak or non-existent. Decision to be developed between scientists and decision making is seldom devolved to the river basin level, makers at all levels. Management decisions should let alone lower levels. More efficient management of be subject to review (e.g. infrastructure operating existing water resources is usually discarded in favor of rules) as new information becomes available. augmenting water supply, and few funds are allocated to maintaining and improving water resources data Infrastructure. Existing storage and regulatory collection, interpretation and dissemination, or to dams can be operated more efficiently to postpone regulating, protecting and managing water resources expensive investments in new infrastructure. Both and promoting collective action. existing and new infrastructure including flood control structures need to be designed and operated Main findings. The analysis of climate change to take account of the potential impact of climate impacts and management responses used the change over the infrastructure’s lifetime. analytical framework for the water sector. Its main findings are reported below. Planning and management. Demand management needs to be widely implemented to make better Knowledge. The information base for decisions needs use of existing infrastructure and defer funding to be comprehensive, consistent across sectors, new infrastructure. Demand can be managed up-to-date, and readily available. Hydrological and through economic instruments (e.g. realistic pricing, climate monitoring networks need to be better removal of subsidies) and community education and maintained and expanded, remote sensing can be participation. Implementation of other methods used more widely, critical climate and hydrological to make better use of existing water sources, such processes need to be understood, and information as conjunctive use of surface and groundwater, needs to be made available to all levels, including recycling and reuse and improvements in irrigation transboundary where necessary. Groundwater water use efficiencies need to be emphasized. monitoring and interpretation should be prioritized. For groundwater dependant coastal urban and Communications, education and participation. community drinking supplies, systematic saltwater Communications programs are needed to build an intrusion monitoring should be prioritized. understanding amongst government and private sector (e.g. irrigation industry) decision makers, as well Policy and Institutions. The policy framework as amongst the general public, about the potential between the water sector and climate change needs Executive Summary 5 impacts of climate change on water resources across • Deepen knowledge and information: Invest in the region. Institutional capacity building is essential strengthening and improving information and for managing the technically and administratively knowledge in basic surface and groundwater complex process of better integrating climate and quantity and quality monitoring, analysis and water management with other water dependent dissemination, the use of remote sensing (RS), a sectors at scales from transboundary to national, flood early warning system, and transboundary to state/province, to basin/aquifer, to local levels. data sharing initiative between interested Climate change policies promote centralized countries. decision making, whereas water policies through IWRM have provisions for promoting decentralized • Strengthen policies and institutions: Review decision making although in practice these are barriers to improved cross-sectoral coordination yet to be institutionalized. More should be done (together with impediments to State/Provincial/ to involve local and community groups in water national cooperation) and develop operational resources decisions. guidelines for mainstreaming climate change adaptation into water dependent sectors. Review Financing. Adaptation cost information is central/local linkages to improve ground-level fragmented, incomplete and difficult to obtain. adaptation actions. Develop a groundwater– Climate change adaptation funding programs fail climate change initiative that integrates aquifer to reflect the water sector as a priority sector protection, MAR and conjunctive management of in funding allocation, although investments in surface and groundwater in adapting to climate improving water management are simultaneously change in policy, practice and in financing. contributing to climate change adaptation. With the exceptions of India and Bangladesh, adaptation • Develop climate smart infrastructure: Develop activities are primarily funded through international water resources infrastructure planning and adaptation funds. development guidelines for assessing climate change impacts and integrating them into Recommendations for building adaptation capacity planning and design decision making. Review in the water sector. The report presents six broad sets infrastructure design standards and operating of recommendations for governments to strengthen rules to ensure that they account for climate their resilience to the impacts of climate change in change. the water sector. The first set is intended to deepen the knowledge base on which decisions are made • Improve planning and management: Introduce at national and sub-national levels. The second set an initiative to develop basin-level water relate to strengthening the frameworks that govern sharing plans that incorporate climate change. water resources management and adaptation to Develop operational guidelines for monitoring climate change. The third set are intended to develop and managing saltwater intrusion in coastal climate smart infrastructure, while the fourth set water supplies. Conduct an integrated study are aimed at improving water resources planning to trial water management methods – demand and management. The fifth set relate to improving management, regulation, water use efficiency the capacity of water managers at all levels and the improvements, recycling and reuse, and MAR engagement of water users, while the last set seek – to improve drought resilience. Introduce to improve financing of climate change adaptation climate adaptation into urban water planning and activities. Not all recommendations are applicable to management. each country because each faces different climate- • Broaden participation, training and education: related risks (Table A.1) and each has determined its Develop good practice case studies for improving priority actions through water resources and climate community engagement in adaptation activities. change instruments. A water-climate-poverty-gender initiative would 6 Executive Summary help the poor and disadvantaged. Develop training capacity is built. Considerable funds will be for climate and water policy decision makers and required to implement adaptation plans and for the public to improve their understanding programs - Governments needs to contribute of the climate change impacts in the water more and encourage contributions from the sector. Develop training for water managers private sector through innovative programs1. in water management methods for improving climate change adaptability (e.g. Decision Tree analysis, and river basin planning methods). Develop an initiative to elevate understanding amongst policy makers about the importance of groundwater adaptation opportunities. • Financing: The water sector in climate change financing needs to be given higher priority in the distribution of climate change adaptation funding. The end use of adaptation funds should be tagged to develop a more reliable picture of the extent to which the water sector adaptation 1 Estimating the cost of implementing adaptation programs is complex and could not be undertaken in this desk study but is recommended for the follow up phase of this work. Executive Summary 7 WAT E R MA NA GE M E NT A ND C L I MATE C HA NGE wat e r m a n ag e m e n t i s a k e y d e v e lo p m e n t c h a l l e n g e i n s o u t h a s i a . p r ov i d i n g r e l i a b l e s u p p ly o f wat e r f o r d e v e lo p m e n t a n d m a n ag i n g t h e r i s k s i n vo lv e d i n h y d r o lo g i c a l va r i a b i l i t y a r e f u n da m e n ta l ta s k s fac i n g t h e r eg i o n . c l i m at e c h a n g e i s m ag n i f y i n g t h i s c h a l l e n g e , t h o u g h u n e v e n ly , t h r o u g h wa r m i n g t e m p e r at u r e s , a lt e r i n g s pat i a l a n d t e m p o r a l pat t e r n s o f r a i n fa l l a n d r i s i n g s e a l e v e l s i n c oa s ta l a r e a s . i m pac t s w i l l r a n g e f r o m g r a d ua l a n d lo n g - t e r m , s u c h a s i n c r e a s e s a n d d ec r e a s e s i n m e a n a n n ua l r i v e r f lo w s a n d s a l i n i z at i o n o f c oa s ta l aq u i f e r s , to m o r e i m m e d i at e a n d p u n c t uat e d , i n c lu d i n g i n t e n s i f i c at i o n of f lo o d s , droughts and landslides. some changes ( e . g ., salinity i n t r u s i o n , s e d i m e n tat i o n , l a n d s l i d e s a n d f lo o d s ) w i l l b e i r r e v e r s i b l e . This report unpacks and addresses the nature of second component is variability, including managing resulting policy, planning and operational challenges changes in volume, timing and frequency of supplies, as regional governments and social systems attempt from slower, longer-term shifts to the immediacy of to adapt, mitigate and manage these challenges and extreme events such as floods, droughts and storms. ensure that sustainable water management remains a central pillar in economic development and social South Asia has the fastest growing economy in the stability. It provides an evidence-base on which to world. These water management challenges are build future capacity to improve water resources serious in a region with over 1.7 billion people and planning, development and management decision with an annual GDP growth at 7.1% in 2016 that is making under a changing climate. This first chapter projected to increase further in the short to medium describes the rationale, objectives and methodology term (World Bank 2016). This, the world’s fastest used in the study. growing region, also exhibits a wide spectrum of economies and water environments, meaning that 1.1. South Asia’s Water Development the management challenges are equally diverse. and Management Challenge The seven countries of South Asia (Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Effective development and management of surface Lanka) are home to 23.7% of the global population, water and groundwater is a critical challenge for but contain only 4.6% of the global annual renewable sustaining South Asia’s growth and livelihoods. water resources2, unevenly distributed between The first key component of the challenge is the countries and river basins. Table 1.1 shows rapid availability of reliable supply of water for different growth in India, Bhutan and Bangladesh in 2016; purposes (e.g. domestic supplies, agriculture, while Nepal and Afghanistan grew slowly. At the energy generation, cooling thermal plants, industrial same time, India, South Asia’s largest economy and production, livestock, ecosystems, as well as grey or most populous nation, has low per capita water ‘waste’ waters that result from different uses). The 2 These percentages are based on the South Asia’s and world’s population figures of 1.744 and 7.349 billion, respectively (UN, 2015), and the AQUASTAT database (FAO, 2016) providing the following figures: 1,982 km3 of internal annual renewable water resources in South Asia; 42,810 km3 of global annual renewable water resources. Internal annual renewable water resources in the only country- wide water resource figure that can be added up for regional assessment. 8 Water Management and Climate Change availability while Pakistan, with the second largest and Nepal have abundant water resources, but economy, is largely arid and semi-arid and has the small and fragile economies. Bangladesh is almost lowest per capita availability of water in the region. completely dependent on sources originating outside Consequently, India and Pakistan are water stressed. its borders. National averages are also misleading, This is evident from growing deficits between water however, given wide temporal and spatial ranges supply and demand, excessive withdrawal of surface within countries, as even the relatively small island water, over-pumping of groundwater, contamination nation of Sri Lanka exhibits. A middle income nation and pollution of surface and groundwater, inefficient with a modest endowment of water, the area of Sri use of water and growing tensions, disputes and Lanka’s dry zone is larger than the area of its wet and conflicts over water. Afghanistan, upstream and intermediate zones combined, rendering large parts embroiled in conflict has both a fragile economy and of the country drought prone. only a modest endowment of water. Both Bhutan Table 1.1 - South Asian GDP and Water Endowment Afghanistan Bangladesh Bhutan India Nepal Pakistan Sri Lanka Population, 2015 32.5 161 0.8 1308.2 28.5 188.9 21 (million) GDP, current 19.6 195.2 2.0 2189.7 22.4 271.4 82.3 (US $ billion) GDP per capita, 601 1212 2532 1674 786 1437 3924 current (US $) Real GDP Growth 0.5 7.1 7.3 7.6 0.6 5.7 4.8 (2016) Per capita water 2,008 7,622 100,645 1,458 7,372 1,306 2,549 availability (m3) Source: World Bank (2016) Investment Reality Check and FAO Aquastat Water and growth in South Asian economies is of the region irrigation has lifted millions out of therefore a complex set of relationships, demands poverty – but at huge levels of water consumption in and challenges. What is key is a common way of agriculture. The surface-to-groundwater relationship understanding and interpreting these challenges varies across countries with major groundwater that will support delivery of the most appropriate withdrawal in India and Bangladesh and rapid growth response mechanisms in water management at local, in use elsewhere – including Sri Lanka, Pakistan and national and transboundary levels. Afghanistan. The buffering capacity of groundwater during drought is becoming a central feature of the The utilization of water resources has generated growing demand for the resource. While agricultural enormous socioeconomic benefits. Water systems development continues to drive the region’s food in the region support a diversity of productive and security, (and employment security, over half of all service sectors through rural and urban water supply jobs are in the sectors), it is also a constant pressure and sanitation, irrigation provision, hydropower on watersheds, wetlands, floodplains and estuaries, generation, water for livestock, navigation and which support key ecosystem services including other local domestic uses. Hydropower drives the fishing and tourism. economies of Bhutan and Nepal, whilst across much Water Management and Climate Change 9 1.2. South Asia’s Water Management supply quality, causing both immediate and longer- Strategy term public health crises and adding cost to the treatment of water supplies. Irrigation without Reliable supplies of water for domestic, industrial, adequate drainage is contributing to waterlogging agriculture, and energy uses are essential for and salinity buildup reducing agriculture productivity. sustaining growing economies, populations and Poor protection and management of watersheds, urban areas, and rural livelihoods, and variable aquifers, lakes and wetlands are all adding pressure river flows for ecosystem services. A recent study on the region’s surface and groundwater resources. estimates that South Asia could see its GDP growth Promoting sustainable use through collective action rates decline by as much as 6% by 2050 as a result by user groups and communities is the second key of water-related losses in agriculture, health, element for regional water management strategies. and income, and damaged human settlements and infrastructure (World Bank 2016). Growing The management of hydrological extremes – economies, populations and urban areas are rapidly floods, sedimentation and droughts – is necessary generating demand for food, energy and industrial to mitigate the consequences of water-related outputs, in addition to rising drinking water and natural disasters. South Asia is a hotspot for natural sanitation needs in burgeoning cities and rural disasters, accounting for some 40% of globally- communities. These factors are likely to be the recorded events. Over the past two decades, water major disruptor of demand in the near to medium related disasters – floods, droughts and cyclones term. By 2030, water demand in the largest South – have affected half of South Asia’s population Asian economies is projected to be twice currently causing tremendous loss of life, destroying available supplies, leading to potential obstacles to livelihoods, damaging property and infrastructure, growth. Investments in water supplies, including and generating extensive financial losses (Gupta water storage to offset potential greater variability, et al 2011). Systematic planning, development and and more effective conjunctive management of management to address the systemic risks emerging surface and groundwater will become essential. of water-related disasters brought about by hydrologic Inefficiencies will need addressing. Losses in extremes needs to be a third element in the region’s municipal systems continue to grow and water water management toolbox. use in irrigation, by far the largest user of water (91% of total water use) and greatest imprint on Many rivers and aquifers span across multiple the environment, remains highly inefficient in most administrative and political boundaries – villages, areas. Using both water supply side and demand cities, districts, provinces and states, and nations. side management is the first key element for water Rivers traversing political boundaries are the norm in management strategies across the region. the region. The Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) and the Indus basins drain about half the region by Unsustainable uses and practices are degrading area. The GBM is supplied mainly by monsoonal rains the quality of available water. Low availability (of which about 20-40% of the water resources in combined with poor water allocation provision are the Ganges River Basin are used for irrigation), while contributing to inadequate environmental flows, the Brahmaputra and Meghna rivers remain largely reducing production services such as inland fisheries unexploited in their Indian portion. The Indus basin and regulating services such as waste assimilation, includes the largest area of non-polar perennial ice sediment transport and maintenance of estuarine, cover in the world, the seasonal changes in which are delta and near-shore marine ecosystems. Naturally a key driver of the river’s flow. The Helmand river occurring contaminants (e.g., arsenic, fluoride, shared by Afghanistan and Pakistan also originates salinity) and pollution from cities, industries, mines from the high mountains. In groundwater terms, the and agriculture are affecting urban and rural water transboundary Indo-Gangetic Basin (IGB) alluvial 10 Water Management and Climate Change aquifers underlie most of Pakistan, northern India, remains the key long-term, systemic disrupter southern Nepal and Bangladesh and are among the of effective water management across South most productive aquifers in the world. Optimal use Asia. Changes in the hydrological cycle including or management of destructive floods on shared impacts, such as floods, droughts, rainfall variation rivers is best facilitated through a collaborative and salinity intrusion, will have severe direct and approach implemented jointly by the administrative indirect, immediate and long-term, consequences entities - districts, provinces, states or nations – for agriculture, the environment, health, energy, and sharing a resources. Given this essentially share urban and rural development across South Asia. challenge, a collective action approach is best suited for establishing regional ways of resolving regional By mid-21st century South Asia could witness problems. More collaborative management of shared temperature increases of up to 3°C under a high- waters therefore has to be a fourth element in the emissions scenario. Longer-term shifts in monsoons region’s water management strategy toolbox. (with earlier onsets likely), higher evaporation and evapotranspiration rates, and altered patterns and Policies and actions outside the water sector timing of river flows and rising sea levels will affect are also profoundly impacting the water sector. the region’s water supply, demand and quality. Less Rapid urbanization and land use change in Lahore, reliable surface supplies and frequent droughts will Pakistan reducing groundwater recharge areas, increase the need for storage and dependence on rates of recharge and the overall quality of urban groundwater. Recurring floods may increase the need water supplies is one such example. Others include for flood control structures (dams, embankments) energy subsidies for agriculture in selected states and nonstructural interventions (such as zoning and in India (e.g. Punjab, Rajasthan and Karnataka) other measures). The region’s high vulnerability is directly contribute to over-pumping of groundwater due in large part to the size of the population and and declining water levels. And degradation of high densities in some areas combined with high watersheds across many parts of the region levels of poverty – including chronic poverty – and accelerates downstream sedimentation and adds to low adaptive capacity. potential flood risk through reducing conveyance capacity of rivers and channels as well as shortening The estimated economic cost of climate change the effective economic lifespan of dams. Habitation/ is high. The region’s livelihoods and economic encroachment on riverine corridors and floodplains development are highly climate-sensitive. According on the Indus and Ganges rivers continues to increase to IPCC (2014a), climate change impacts are vulnerability of communities to flooding and flood projected to slow down economic growth, make damage. Current water policies inadequately address poverty reduction more difficult and further erode these extra-sectoral land use, energy and natural food security. Box 1.1 estimates the economic cost resource implications on future water resources of climate change in South Asia. These exclude costs availability and variability. Integrating policies and arising from the impacts of extreme events such as actions outside the water sector needs to be the storms, floods and droughts, thereby underestimate fifth element of water management strategies overall economic costs. across the region. 1.3. Climate Change: Management Risks and Future Costs Underlying management risks are amplified by the anticipated impacts of climate change and variability across the region. Climate change, causing shifts in hydrological parameters and increasing variability, Water Management and Climate Change 11 Box 1.1 - Economic Cost of Climate Change in South Asia Ahmed and Suphachalasai (2014) estimate that under a business as usual scenario, economic costs of climate change at a regional level could amount to an equivalent of 1.8% of South Asia’s annual gross domestic product (GDP) by 2050, rising to 8.8% by 2100. The model employed to generate these estimates includes the effects of changes in temperatures and precipitation but not the impact of extreme events, such as storms, floods, and droughts, which could lead to even higher costs if included. Specific sectoral impacts would have disproportionately severe impacts on human security, not least because the poorest would be hit most acutely, particularly in countries that are highly dependent on agriculture. However, if global mean temperature rise is kept to within 2 Degrees Celsius, the region would only lose an average of 1.3% of GDP by 2050 and about 2.5% by 2100. The authors estimate that Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, and Sri Lanka would face respectively a 2.0%, 1.4%, 1.8%, 2.2%, and 1.2% loss in annual GDP by 2050, with average total annual economic losses projected to be 9.4% for Bangladesh, 6.6% for Bhutan, 8.7% for India, 9.9% for Nepal, and 6.5% for Sri Lanka by 2100. For India, the impacts would be felt through a decline in agricultural productivity, with implications for poverty alleviation (Garg et al. 2015). Chaturvedi (2015) estimates that major food crop losses could reach US$ 208 billion and US$366 billion in 2050 and 2100 respectively. In Nepal, a government led Economic Impact Assessment (EIA) found that agriculture and hydropower are the sectors most likely to be affected by climate change (IDS-Nepal, 2014). The EIA estimates climate change to have a direct cost to GDP of 1.5%-2% (US$ 270-360 million/year in 2013 prices) per year rising to a GDP cost of 5% per year in extreme years (IDS-Nepal, 2014). Bangladesh would experience these impacts through declines in agricultural production as well as through loss of land availability from sea-level rise. Source: Suhardiman et al (2017). 1.4. Adaptation and Water climate impacts at regional (transboundary), national Management and local levels, joined together and able to inform improved water resources planning, development COP21 held in 2015 in Paris focused more and management decision making. It also requires specifically on water issues within the wider deeper understanding of the water resource base adaptation agenda. COP22 held in 2016 in and the adaptation opportunities it provide. Marrakesh elevated this discourse even higher and discussed integrated water resources management This report - Adaptation Frameworks for Water (IWRM) as part of the adaptation toolkit available. Resources Planning, Development and Management Although the need for building adaptive capacity in in South Asia – helps fill this gap by identifying and the water sector (and wider linked sectors) is widely supporting with evidence broader messages that recognized, how to move from understanding the can help link adaptation needs to water (and other) challenge to building appropriate levels of capacity sector actions at a country level. It builds on the at both policy and operational levels is less clear. pioneering work conducted after the third IPCC While some important technical studies – for assessment and published in the anthology “Climate example, the recent report “Confronting Climate Change and Water Resources in South Asia” (Mirza Uncertainty in Water Resources Planning and and Ahmad 2005). Project Design: The Decision Tree Framework” (Ray and Brown 2015) – provide guidance on the In this report we place emphasis on groundwater integration of climate uncertainty in water planning management because groundwater will become and project design, there are no broader guidelines more important as a source of water under changing in place to support adaptive capacity development climate conditions. Box 1.2 describes characteristics at sector level. This requires improved knowledge on of groundwater that make it a more drought and 12 Water Management and Climate Change climate resilient resource compared to surface buffer against increased climate variability. Surface water. Unlike surface water, groundwater is shielded and groundwater are closely linked and should from evaporative losses and provides a better systematically be managed conjunctively. Box 1.2 - Groundwater and Drought and Climate Resilience Groundwater has some unique characteristics compared to surface water - large natural storage volumes, slow response times, and protection from evaporation – that are important for drought and climate resilience. Aquifers in general are naturally buffered against short- and medium-term climate (temperature and rainfall) variability compared to surface water. These characteristics provide a significant opportunity to store excess water during high rainfall period, to reduce evaporative losses and to protect water quality. Integrating these characteristics in water resources planning and management decision making can help to harness substantial opportunities for developing drought- and climate-resilient strategies. Source: Clifton et al 2010. 1.5. Objectives 4. Identify the types and range of short to long- term adaptation options and opportunities This South Asia Water Initiative (SAWI) technical available to address climate change risks and to assistance project has the overarching objective of build resilience in South Asia. using a collaborative process to build knowledge, tools and capacity across the region that will 1.6. Methodology assist governments in adapting to climate This report draws from a vast body of knowledge change challenges in the water sector. It is being and literature and three commissioned papers. It implemented in two phases: Phase 1, reported here, summarizes the major climate change risks for is a desk study implemented by the World Bank managing South Asia’s water resources and the and the International Water Management Institute emerging opportunities for the water sector to (IWMI). It had four specific objectives: more effectively adapt to a warming world. It 1. Review the national water policies, water has synthesized existing knowledge available on resources strategies and water resources plans government websites, from the academic literature, or water masterplans and climate change as well as from international organizations such as policies, strategies, plans, NAPAs and NDCs in the IPCC, IWMI, the World Bank, FAO, and other each South Asian country; UN agencies. It has also drawn on material from specialist international organizations including 2. Review the current knowledge and information the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of on climate change issues and impacts and Disasters International, and the International Centre modelling work to develop a comprehensive for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD). understanding of climate change impacts and risks on water resources, and their implications Three technical papers were produced: for current and future water resources planning, • The first paper reviews South Asia’s surface and design and operations; groundwater resources, the hydrological cycle 3. Review the economic impacts of climate and the impacts of climate change on these water change on water-related activities and assess resources. It also reviews water flows and water the capacity of institutional and financial quality and assesses the likely changes in both mechanisms for adapting to climate change; and, water availability and in water demand because of climate change; Water Management and Climate Change 13 • The second paper reviews the policies, legislation, Part 1 with four chapters discusses the risks and strategies, and plans for managing water opportunities for adaptation to the water sector in resources in each South Asian country and the South Asia. It includes discussion on known and extent to which these instruments help countries emerging water resource issues, climate change adapt to the likely impacts of climate change. information, and key risks and opportunities. This The paper also reviews climate change policies, first chapter provides the background, context, legislation, strategies and plans to determine objective and methodology used in this work and whether they recognized opportunities for the target audience for the report. Chapter two adaptation in the water sector (Appendix 1) lists describes South Asia’s water resources, the main the policy instruments reviewed); climate change risks, the primary climate drivers of hydrological changes and uncertainty in knowledge • The third paper focuses on the economic and information. Chapter three discusses the implications of climate change in the water socioeconomic and climate drivers of water demand resources sector, current trends in financial and chapter four extreme events under climate structures and mechanisms for climate change. adaptation, and the effectiveness of institutional frameworks for climate adaptation, especially in Part 2 with seven chapters focuses on the the water resources sector in each country. opportunities for building adaptation capacity for the water sector. Chapter five describes the The drafts of the three papers were presented adaptation framework for the water sector drawing and reviewed at a regional stakeholder workshop on reviews of the pros and cons of integrated water held in Colombo, Sri Lanka in July 2016 attended resources management. Chapters six to eleven by 65 national, regional and international climate present findings and recommendations from the change and water resources experts, including 20 review of the three background papers related, representatives of governments across the region. respectively, to addressing the water resources Being a desk study, the analysis relied on published and climate knowledge gaps, strengthening water information and did not seek additional information resources and climate governance (policies and from government officials or other experts apart institutions), enhancing water resources planning and from feedback received at the workshop. The management using a risk based approach to designing revised background papers were also reviewed and operating water resources infrastructure, and by World Bank staff in April 2017. A draft of this improving communications, education and public summary report was reviewed by World Bank and consultations, as well as financing challenges. outside peer reviewers in February 2017. Part 3 with the final chapter, Chapter twelve, 1.7. Audience presents the recommendations for building adaptive The primary target audience for this report are South capacities for the water sector in South Asia. Asia’s water resources and climate policy decision makers, managers and technical experts. Academics, Appendix 1 lists the government water and climate researchers, development practitioners and planners change instruments (policies, strategies, plans, will also benefit from the work, as will policy legislation) reviewed in Background Paper 2. developers, decision makers and technical experts beyond the South Asia region. 1.8. Report Structure This report is organized around three parts and twelve chapters. 14 Water Management and Climate Change WAT E R RES O U R C ES , C L I M ATE RI SKS A ND U N C E RTA I NTY t h i s c h a p t e r d e s c r i b e s t h e wat e r r e s o u r c e s o f s o u t h a s i a a n d d r aw s pa rt i c u l a r at t e n t i o n to t h e g r o w i n g i m p o rta n c e o f g r o u n d wat e r a m i d w i d e r p r e s s u r e s o n t h e wat e r r e s o u r c e b a s e , i n c lu d i n g d e t e r i o r at i n g wat e r q ua l i t y . g r o u n d wat e r i s a v i ta l r e s o u r c e b u t r e m a i n s h i g h ly u n d e rva lu e d i n s o u t h a s i a , e v e n t h o u g h i t c a n p r ov i d e a c r i t i c a l b u f f e r ag a i n s t i n c r e a s i n g va r i a b i l i t y , i n c lu d i n g a r a n g e o f i m p o rta n t a da p tat i o n o p p o rt u n i t i e s . t h e c h a p t e r h i g h l i g h t s t h e m a j o r c l i m at e c h a n g e r i s k s i n s o u t h a s i a , d e s c r i b e s t h e m a i n c l i m at e d r i v e r s o f h y d r o lo g i c a l c h a n g e a n d d i s t i n g u i s h e s b e t w e e n t h e t w o c o n c e p t s , n at u r a l c l i m at e va r i a b i l i t y a n d h u m a n - i n d u c e d c l i m at e c h a n g e , t h at are sometimes confused. f i n a l ly , t h e u n c e rta i n t y s u r r o u n d i n g c l i m at e c h a n g e i n f o r m at i o n a n d knowledge is discussed. 2.1. South Asian Water Resources: runoff ratios range from 0.14 in Pakistan, where a Key Challenges significant part of rainfall evaporates, to more than 0.90 in Bhutan and Nepal, where evaporation rates The availability of water is affected by climate, are much lower and runoff rates are much higher topography, land-use, and socio-economic factors. due to mountainous and steep terrain (Singh and Climate is influenced by topography (from the highest Karki 2004). Snowmelt contribution to TRWR mountain ranges to large deltas), precipitation (from varies from 92% in Afghanistan and 57% in Pakistan arid lands to extensive plains subject to unpredictable to nothing in Sri Lanka. In general, the higher the flooding) and environment (from glacial to tropical). snowmelt contribution to the TRWR the greater is In general, the eastern part of the region is wetter and its vulnerability to warming temperatures. the western part drier. Great seasonal, inter-annual and spatial differences in precipitation determines Surface water entering the country represents the water availability – where, when and how much shared portion of the region’s surface waters. The water is available. Spatial variations in mean annual contribution of SWEC to TRWR varies from 0% rainfall can be very marked over relatively short (Bhutan) to > 90% (Bangladesh). The higher the distances, which also points to the need for locally- SWEC the greater the dependence on inflows from relevant adaptation options. other nations, making the receiving country more vulnerable to factors outside its control. Water resources in rivers, lakes, reservoirs, snowpack, glaciers and aquifers that originate as Although groundwater is only 13% of South Asia’s rainfall and snow in each country are summarized in TRWR, it is a critical resource for all sectors. It Table 2.1. Surface water and groundwater comprise supports 60% to 80% of the irrigation, rural and 87% and 13% respectively of the Total Renewable urban water supply across the region. Currently, Water Resources (TRWR). TRWR is water that 62% of the region’s 555 BCM of renewable originates within each country, and is a function groundwater has been developed. South Asia is the of internal renewable water resources (IRWR), and largest abstractor of groundwater globally, pumping water that flows from neighbouring countries as a third of all groundwater used globally and half surface water entering the country (SWEC). Rainfall/ of the world’s groundwater for irrigation. India, Water Resources, Climate Risks and Uncertainty 15 Pakistan, and Bangladesh are the world’s first, fourth expected to increase as economies grow, population and sixth largest abstractors of groundwater globally. increases, surface supplies become less reliable, Groundwater use in Afghanistan is moderate; in and climate change requires a water source that is Nepal and Sri Lanka, low; and in Bhutan, minimal. buffered against increasing variability. Overall, the region’s dependence on groundwater is Table 2.1 - Water Resources in South Asian countries Afghanistan Bangladesh Bhutan India Nepal Pakistan Sri Lanka South Asia km3.year-1 47 105 78 1,446 198 55 53 1,982 IRWR As % of 22 27 92 41 90 14 47 40 rainfall SWEC (km3.year-1) 10 1,122 0 635 12 265 0 2,044 Groundwater as 16 2 9 19 9 19 13 13 % of TRWR Snowmelt as % of 92 03 17 10 8 57 0 11 TRWR TRWR (km3.year-1) 65 1,227 78 1,911 210 247 53 3,791 TRWR (m3) per 2,008 7,622 100,645 1,458 7,372 1,306 2,549 2,175 capita per year Source: FAO (2016) AQUASTAT South Asia has extensive alluvial and hard rock estimated to be 280 km3. According to McDonald aquifers. The transboundary Indo-Gangetic Basin et al (2015), the natural storage capacity of the Indo- (IGB) floodplain and alluvial deposits that underlie Gangetic basin aquifers alone is much larger; it is most of Pakistan, Northern India, Nepal and over two orders of magnitude larger than the total Bangladesh have both high yield and recharge surface water storage (Box 2.1). rates due to rainfall infiltration and/or stream water percolation. In contrast, hard rock aquifers that Degradation of surface and groundwater quality is span peninsular India, parts of Bhutan and Nepal, a major problem that is widespread and growing. and Sri Lanka, store groundwater in deep fissures Natural and anthropogenic contaminants are which are generally less accessible and provide affecting drinking and industrial water supplies in lower water yields because of lower recharge rates4. cities, major towns, and villages, causing an additional Each aquifer type requires different approaches to heavy burden on public health. In the Ganges River management given the differences in hydrogeological basin, risks of pathogenic contaminations increase characteristics, resilience to change, and ease of with higher temperature and increased hydrologic abstraction and recharge. extremes. Water quality is usually better in the upper parts of the large river basins, due to lower population Water storage. The monsoons result in nearly 80% densities generating less pollution than in the lower of rain in much of South Asia falling from June to deltaic regions (e.g. plain of Dhaka). However, September. This makes seasonal storage of water elevated concentrations of naturally occurring critical (in dams, reservoirs, and tanks, as well as contaminants like arsenic and fluoride exist in many in aquifers, wetlands, and lakes) to provide reliable upstream areas. While water quality is high in the year round water supply and a supply buffer for lean upstream Indus and its tributaries, effluents from periods. The total surface water storage capacity in agricultural drainage and wastewater from cities and all dams, reservoirs and tanks across South Asia is industries seriously affect water quality downstream. 3 In Bangladesh, which receives water from snowmelt rivers, the snowmelt flows are included in SWEC. 4 It is important to note the limitation of this generalization because it is very context specific. They can provide both high rates of recharge and high yields under the right conditions, e.g. springs. 16 Water Resources, Climate Risks and Uncertainty Box 2.1 - The IGB aquifer has immense natural storage A recent regional study estimates that the storage volume in the first 200 depth of the IGB aquifer is almost 30,000 km3. This is nearly100 times the total constructed surface water storage—dams, reservoirs, and tanks—in the region. This immense storage is more than 20 times the combined annual flow of the Indus, Brahmaputra, and Ganges rivers. However, this vast and vital IGB aquifer is left largely unprotected, insufficiently monitored, and inadequately managed, with huge long-term losses (opportunity costs) to the region’s development if its essential qualities are lost. Source: MacDonald et al 2015 2.2. Climate Change Risks themselves as changes in both the average values (such as mean annual flows) and extremes (such as IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC 2013b) floods). Crop water demand will also rise due to identifies key South Asian risks from climate change increased temperatures and evapotranspiration. as: (a) increased riverine, coastal and urban flooding, leading to widespread damage to infrastructure, The warming of the Earth’s atmosphere because of livelihoods and settlements; (b) heat-related mortality; increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases has (c) increased risk of drought-related water and food already brought about measureable changes in the shortages causing malnutrition; (d) mudslides and global climate. The earth’s surface has warmed by sedimentation problems; (e) sea-level rise inducing 0.85°C since the mid-19th century and sea levels saltwater intrusion of coastal aquifers; and (f) changes have risen by about 1.7mm/year since the start of the to the cryosphere of the Hindu-Kush Himalayas (the 20th century. Natural climate variability and human ‘Third Pole’) with downstream impacts in major river induced climate change are sometimes confused. systems including the Ganges-Brahmaputra and the Box 2.2 distinguishes these two concepts and their Indus. Under current variability in the region and implications for planning, designing and operating under future climate change scenarios, inadequate water resources infrastructure and for managing development of water information systems, water resources. ineffective policies and institutions, and inadequate provision and management of key infrastructure will Global warming will bring about changes in both generate further risks for the region. average climate parameters and in extremes. For example, average temperatures will rise along with an 2.3. Climate Drivers of Hydrological increase in extreme cold and hot temperatures. This Change means that South Asian countries need to prepare Changes in temperature and precipitation patterns and adapt for both more extreme events (such as (both average values and extremes) and rising floods, drought, cyclones and heatwaves) as well as sea-levels constitute the three primary drivers of shifts in long term average river flows, groundwater hydrological change in South Asia. These, in turn, recharge levels, increasing water demands across give rise to changes in a variety of water-related sectors – and for different types of ‘waters’ – as well parameters such as river flows, groundwater recharge as the continuing retreat of glaciers and steadily- rates and changes in water quality. These secondary, increasing sea levels. hydrological impacts from climate change manifest Water Resources, Climate Risks and Uncertainty 17 Box 2.2 - Climate Variability and Climate Change Climate variability describes variability of, for instance, precipitation in spatial and temporal scales beyond that of individual weather events. The familiar sequence of a monsoonal rainy season starting in April-May followed by a dry winter season starting between October and December is an example of natural seasonal variability across most of South Asia. There is also spatial variability in this climate pattern, with the southwestern parts of South Asia typically being the first to receive the monsoonal rains coming from the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal. The climate also varies considerably between years. The conventional practice has been to use a reference period of about 30 – 40 years to characterize the variability of the climate in order to design water infrastructure. The assumption has been that the average climate and variability around that average remains constant over time. This stationarity assumption allows engineers to plan for infrastructure by assuming that future hydrology repeats itself and will be the same as that experienced in the past (Davis, 2011). Climate change describes the change in climate variables caused by the warming of the earth's atmosphere as a result of human activities such as increasing GHG emissions, land-use change and emissions of aerosols. This warming will likely change both the average climate and its variability in a particular region or location across a wide range of temporal scales – sub-daily, daily, monthly, seasonal, inter-annual, and decadal. Thus, engineers cannot assume that infrastructure designed for past climates will be suitable and reliable for the future; in other words, the stationary assumption no longer holds. Source: Davis and Hirji 2014 2.4. Uncertainty in Climate Change Uncertainties in climate and hydrological projections Information and Knowledge arise from a range of factors. These include the reliability and availability of data used to calibrate South Asia is one of the regions where climate the climate and hydrological models, the limited projections are least reliable. The most notable understanding of climatic and hydrologic processes warming changes already apparent in South Asia and their inevitably inaccurate modelling, the are the retreat of HKH glaciers (with the exception uncertainty in future GHG emissions scenarios and of some Karakoram glaciers around the so-called the omission of other influential dynamics (e.g., ‘Karakoram Anomaly’). Climate change will have changes in water uses and land uses). Background widespread impacts on the hydrology of South Asia’s paper 1 (LaCombe et al 2017) discusses these factors surface and groundwater systems with consequent in more detail. impacts on the region’s natural environment, economy and society. Global Circulation Models The main hydrological modelling challenge in (GCMs) provide projections of climate parameters, South Asia arises from the limited understanding such as temperature and precipitation, although of the physical processes regulating glacial melt there are large errors in these projections because in a complex orographic environment, and the of the different formulations of different models hydrological processes involved in extreme events. and the assumptions and uncertainties about future The limited monitoring networks and data availability greenhouse gas emissions. Hydrological models are for both precipitation and river flows present further used to translate these climate projections into river difficulties for validating models and estimates of flows, groundwater recharge and estimates of crop water balances (Mathison et al. 2015). water demand. Models can also predict the rate of sea-level rise from warming of the oceans and rapid ice melt. 18 Water Resources, Climate Risks and Uncertainty 2.5. Reliability of climate change 2.6. Variability of the monsoons projections Trends in the variability in India’s monsoons. The The reliability of climate change projections varies. standard projections from climate change research There is high confidence that average temperatures have been that extreme wet and dry events will and the frequency of hot days will increase, and become more frequent, and that drier regions are sea-levels will rise across South Asia. However, likely to become drier and wet regions will become the impacts of global warming on other climate wetter under climate change scenarios. However, parameters, such as precipitation, are less certain. a recent study from India has found that, while These uncertainties are particularly high in South the intensity and frequency of extreme monsoonal Asia because of the limited amount of climate rainfall events are increasing as expected from monitoring data and the complexity of climatic climate change modelling, the mean monsoonal influences in this region. Recent projections based rainfall is decreasing over India’s major water supply on International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) basins and increasing over drier areas (Ghosh et al. results (IPCC 2014b) show possible increases in 2016). These latter findings, contrary to standard annual precipitation across the Himalayan region, beliefs about climate change impacts, are important Nepal and Sri Lanka with smaller increases in for reassessing the yield of existing river basins as Bhutan. There will possibly be a reduction in annual well as for planning new infrastructure such as dams precipitation in lower parts of Afghanistan and and inter-basin transfers. Above all they point to the across India, Bangladesh and Pakistan. There may complexity of managing decision making in imperfect be an increase in rainfall extremes. However, these knowledge environments, pointing to the need for projections are made with only low confidence. continued adherence to no and low-regret solutions There is even greater uncertainty when these climate to future adaptation challenges. projections are translated into hydrological impacts – including mean annual river flows, groundwater recharge and peak flow events – because of the additional uncertainties that arise when changes in evapotranspiration and precipitation patterns, are coupled with changes in land use and vegetation cover as a result of climate change. This report uses the best available estimates of changes in climate and hydrological parameters from the IPCC5 reports (IPCC 2014a). Water Resources, Climate Risks and Uncertainty 19 SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL DRIVERS OF WATER DEMAND AND SUPPLY t h i s c h a p t e r d e s c r i b e s t h e c u r r e n t p r e s s u r e s o n wat e r ava i l a b i l i t y ac r o s s t h e wat e r - d e p e n d e n t s ec to r s o f s o u t h a s i a n ec o n o m i e s . i t a l s o d e s c r i b e s t h e n eg l ec t o f e n v i r o n m e n ta l wat e r p r ov i s i o n in most countries – a n e s s e n t i a l fac to r i n m a i n ta i n i n g t h e ec o s ys t e m s e rv i c e s p r ov i d e d by aq uat i c ec o s ys t e m s i n c lu d i n g h a b i tat s f o r f i s h e r i e s , a n d r ec h a r g i n g s o i l wat e r a n d s h a l lo w aq u i f e r s b e n e at h f lo o d p l a i n s . t h e c h a p t e r t h e n e x a m i n e s t h e p o s s i b l e e f f ec t s o f c l i m at e c h a n g e o n b ot h t h e ava i l a b i l i t y o f wat e r a n d o n pat t e r n s o f wat e r d e m a n d , k e e p i n g i n m i n d t h e c o n s i d e r a b l e u n c e rta i n t y a s s o c i at e d w i t h p r oj ec t i o n s o f c l i m at e c h a n g e i m pac t s . i t i s n ot e d t h at c l i m at e r i s k s d i f f e r ac r o s s t h e r eg i o n , w i t h e ac h c o u n t ry h av i n g a d i f f e r e n t r i s k p r o f i l e , p o i n t i n g to t h e n e e d f o r ta i lo r e d - a n d n ua n c e d - r e s p o n s e s b a s e d o n c o u n t ry - a n d lo c a l ly - s p ec i f i c u n d e r s ta n d i n g o f r i s k s a n d i m pac t s , b u t i n t h e c o n t e x t o f w i d e r ‘shared t r a n s b o u n da ry s ys t e m s ’. 3.1. Water uses and demand in Bhutan, India, Pakistan and Nepal. The gross hydropower potential of India is estimated at Total surface and groundwater withdrawals represent 148,700 MW installed capacity. Further, small, mini 27% of the total available renewable surface water and micro hydropower schemes (with a capacity of and groundwater resources. Total surface water less than 3 MW) have been assessed as providing a withdrawal is 61% of the total water resources potential 6,782 MW of installed capacity. Water for withdrawal and total groundwater withdrawal is cooling thermal power plants is also a key growing 39% of the total water resources withdrawal. demand. At the national level, total water use percentage Irrigation water use. A third of agricultural land varies from 5% or less in Bangladesh, Bhutan and is irrigated across the region. Bangladesh and Nepal to 74% in Pakistan of total renewable water. Pakistan irrigate 55% of their agricultural land while Afghanistan, India and Sri Lanka withdraw 31%, 40% Afghanistan irrigates only 8%. Overall, the region and 25%, respectively, of their available renewable is home to some of the world’s largest contiguous water resources. While water is mainly used for irrigation schemes. On average, irrigation uses agricultural purposes, domestic and industrial more than 90% of the volume of water used in water demand is increasing, driven by changing South Asia with variations ranging from 87% in Sri lifestyles, urbanization and demographics under Lanka to 98% in Afghanistan and Nepal. However, changing socioeconomic conditions. At the same the patterns of water use and the relative reliance time, agricultural water use continues to increase on surface and groundwater vary significantly due to intensification, in large part a response to across the region (Box 3.1). rapidly-growing demand for food. Hydropower is a key water use, especially in mountainous regions 20 Socio-economic and Environmental Drivers of Water Demand and Supply Box 3.1 - Seasonal Estimates of Irrigation Water Demand in South Asia Agriculture in South Asia and the nature of the supporting demand for water have certain unique characteristics when compared to other food-producing regions of the world. Multiple cropping is practiced extensively. In many countries this takes the form of a monsoonal cultivation (kharif) followed by a second cultivation during the dry winter season (rabi). The lack of moisture during the drier season is usually compensated for by more intensive surface and groundwater irrigation. A study by Biemans et al. (2016) in four South Asian countries (Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan and India) found that the rainfall pattern determines the timing and extent of irrigation water demand. Of the four countries, India and Pakistan have the highest demand for water. In Bangladesh and Nepal, irrigation is mostly required only for the rabi season. Irrigation water is required in equal proportions for the two seasons in Pakistan while, in India, almost three-quarters of net demand is during the dry season. However, when the total water withdrawn is considered, the differences between the four countries become less obvious because of the higher efficiency of groundwater irrigation, which meets the greater proportion of the dry season demand. In general, groundwater meets most of the dry season irrigation needs in all four countries. Further, the study finds that improvements in land use and cropping periods have resulted in lower demands on irrigation water, compared to previous studies. The second major factor that determines seasonal water demand is the type of crop cultivated. Rice has peak water requirements during both the rabi and kharif season, while wheat has a highly pronounced demand during the dry season. Rice has a reputation as a highly water-intensive crop. However, because it is grown mainly during the kharif season in most areas, it is other crops such as wheat and sugarcane that account for a greater proportion of the irrigation water demand during the dry seasons. The nature of the water demand in the Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra basins is depicted in Figure 3.1. The water demand in the Indus does not show a great degree of fluctuation during the year, with the irrigation water demand being met by melt runoff during the kharif and groundwater during the rabi. In both the Ganges and Brahmaputra, water demand during the summer is lower, with large parts of the basin being rain-fed. Total regional crop production (of the five most important crops - wheat, rice, maize, tropical cereals and pulses) is almost equal in both the seasons. Some 50% of this production requires irrigation in the kharif, and 95% requires irrigation during the rabi. In the Indus, the greater proportion of the food is produced during the rabi. Rainfed production becomes more pronounced in the Ganges, whereas in the Brahmaputra, the kharif is the most important food-producing season. Thus, the relative importance of irrigation decreases when moving from the west to east across the region. These findings illustrate the need for governments across the region to strengthen their groundwater policies and to better integrate surface and groundwater management if dry-season production is to be maintained under reduced water availability. Climate change is likely to bring not only changes to annual average rainfall and stream-flow but also to rainfall patterns and to groundwater recharge, affecting cropping mixes across South Asia. At the same time, the current variability in cropping across South Asia to take advantage of different water availabilities illustrates the adaptability of agriculture and the potential for farmers to learn how to adapt to changing rainfall patterns. Both improvements in scientific knowledge and sharing and learning from current experience are important aspects of climate change adaptation. Source: Biemans et al. (2016). Socio-economic and Environmental Drivers of Water Demand and Supply 21 Table 3.1 - Water uses in South Asian countries South Afghanistan Bangladesh Bhutan India Nepal Pakistan Sri Lanka Asia Total water use as % of total renewable water 31% 3% 0% 40% 5% 74% 25% 27% resources Total water use (km3/year) 20.4 35.9 0.3 761.0 9.5 183.5 12.9 1023.5 Agriculture water use (km3/ 20.0 31.5 0.3 688.0 9.3 172.4 11.3 932.8 year) Industrial water use (km3/ 0.2 0.8 0.0 17.0 0.0 1.4 0.8 20.2 year) Municipal water use (km3/ 0.2 3.6 0.0 56.0 0.1 9.7 0.8 70.4 year) Surface water use (km3/ 16.7 7.4 0.3 531* 7.6 121.9 5.1 550.4 year) Ground water use (km3/ 3.7 28.5 0.0 230** 1.9 61.6 7.8 325.7 year) Groundwater use as % of 18% 79% 0% 36% 21% 34% 60% 39% total water use Groundwater use as % of total renewable ground 34% 2% 0% 53% 10% 24.8% 15% 63% water resources Other sources: (National Statistics Bureau, 2009) for Bhutan. *: this volume includes the direct use of agricultural drainage water that represents 14.9% of total water withdrawal (FAO, 2016). **: highest in the world (Shah, 2010). Sources: FAO. 2016. AQUASTAT Main Database – FAO of the United Nations (http:/ /data.worldbank.org/). Website accessed on 18/02/2016. Figure 3.1 - Monthly irrigation demand for Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra river basins Indus Ganges Brahmaputra 14 12 Net irrigation water demand (bam/month) Net irrigation water demand (bam/month) Net irrigation water demand (bam/month) 12 1.5 10 10 8 8 1.0 6 6 4 4 0.5 2 2 0 0 0.0 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D From surface water in Rabi, Summer and Kharif respectively From groundwater Source: Biemans et al. (2016) 22 Socio-economic and Environmental Drivers of Water Demand and Supply Groundwater is a vital source for irrigation. About of Pakistan, and the Terai Plains of Nepal. In a third of irrigation water is pumped from aquifers Bangladesh, groundwater accounts for about 80% of and the remainder is pumped or diverted from total water use. This dramatic growth in groundwater rivers and reservoirs. In India, the agriculture sector use in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh has surpassed accounts for 60% of total groundwater abstraction natural recharge in some areas, causing aquifers (Hoekstra 2013). Water for agriculture, including to decline rapidly. Box 3.2 shows that South Asia major groundwater abstraction, helped to drive is the largest groundwater exporting region of the the green revolution increases in yields in previous world through its export of grains. Ensuring future decades. Groundwater-fed irrigation has become sustainability of this resource will be a key plank in the mainstay of irrigated agriculture over much of any future adaptation strategy across the region, but India and Bangladesh, Punjab and Sindh provinces especially where dependence is already high. Box 3.2 - South Asia is the world’s top exporter of groundwater Pakistan and India are the world’s largest and third largest exporters of groundwater through their grains export. In 2010, Pakistan exported grains that had required 7.3 km3 of groundwater to grow. India exported grains that required 3 km3 to grow. The trifecta of groundwater depletion for water intensive crops, grain exports and the use of electricity for mining groundwater add up to a perfect recipe for causing water and food shortages. Climate change impacts are likely to worsen the situation. Source: Raghu Murtugudde, May 3, 2017 (https://www.thethirdpole.net/2017/03/03) South Asian aquifers are now highly stressed. data from 2002 to 2015. Groundwater quality Groundwater levels have dropped significantly is highly variable across South Asia, affected by in recent decades in the large alluvial aquifers of anthropogenic pollution from cities, industries and the major rivers because of over-use for irrigation agriculture. The Indus Basin aquifer is classified as and domestic use. Figure 3.2 shows long-term the second most stressed aquifer in the world, with drawdown of regional aquifers from GRACE satellite 60% of the aquifer being brackish. Figure 3.2 - Cumulative groundwater storage losses in the Indo-Gangetic basin aquifers (NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory) Socio-economic and Environmental Drivers of Water Demand and Supply 23 Water Quality. Most shallow freshwater is polluted including 0.5 and 0.3 km3/year of sewage from with pesticides and fertilizers from agricultural Karachi and Lahore, respectively; this was often runoff and biological contaminants from sewage. reused without treatment for drinking, causing Some aquifers are also compromised by high numerous waterborne diseases. In Nepal, about 40% concentrations of arsenic and fluoride from naturally of the population still does not have access to safe occurring sources in Bangladesh (Ahmed et al drinking water (MoE 2005). On the other hand, in 2004), the Ganges plain (CGWB 2015, Mukherjee Bhutan, about 97% of the population has access to et al. 2008), crystalline aquifers in 19 States of improved drinking water sources. India (Maheshwari 2006), southern Nepal (Thakur et al. 2010), and Punjab and Sindh regions of Industry. In Bangladesh and India, industries use 2% Pakistan (Smedley 2005). Arsenic contamination of the total water withdrawals. In India, more than is exacerbated by over-pumping of groundwater 70% of industrial water use is for energy generation (Harvey et al 2002). (Aggarwal and Kumar 2011), the remainder is used for engineering industries (CSE 2004). Water for Seawater contamination of coastal aquifers is energy is mainly used to cool thermal power stations. reported in India during droughts when aquifers Typically, about 5-10% of these withdrawals are are heavily drawn down, during storm surges in consumed through evaporation. This is not only the Bangladesh and the lower Indus delta, and in some dominant industrial demand but the fastest-growing Sri Lankan shallow sand aquifers that are subject (in relative terms) demand in India, and constraints to heavy use. In some cases, brackish water on availability (e.g., during drought) have significant contaminates inland aquifers (e.g. in the Indus Basin), downstream economic consequences. In recent enhancing mineral dissolution and/or agricultural years, groundwater has also been used along with pollution (CGWB 2015). Intensive groundwater use surface water for industrial purposes. The total exacerbates these problems (e.g. Sri Lankan coastal industrial water demand is expected to increase areas) (Rajasooriyar et al. 2002). to 80 km3 and 143 km3 in India by 2025 and 2050 respectively, which represent around 8.5 and 10% of Domestic water. Access to sufficient and good- the expected total withdrawals for these two years, quality domestic water is highly varied – and a respectively (CSE 2004; Aggarwal and Kumar 2011). continuing challenge. Access is affected by increasing In Bangladesh, if business as usual continues in the groundwater depletion and pollution (Shamsudduha development of the textile sector, an additional 2013), droughts and destructive floods, unreliable water demand of over 3.4 km3 by 2030 is expected, infrastructure, and competition with agricultural equivalent to the annual water needs of a population water use. Countries most affected by limited access of approximately 75 million. Current groundwater include Afghanistan (due to low availability and abstraction rates are close to their limit and problems of access caused by poverty and years further growth of the textile sector will require the of damage to infrastructure), and Bangladesh and development of new sustainable water supplies and Pakistan, the last two being exposed to recurrent effluent treatment facilities for this highly-polluting floods and high water demand. More than half of sector. Afghanistan’s urban population has no access to improved water resources and 80% of the population Hydropower. The larger the storage capacity of in rural areas drink contaminated water (MDG 2005). hydropower dams the greater the capacity to absorb higher seasonal variations between high flows In Pakistan, only 53% of the total rural population and low flows so that turbine discharge remains has access to safe drinking water supply. The rest stable throughout the year. If properly operated, by use untreated surface water resources (e.g., streams, buffering seasonal variations in river flow regimes, canals, ponds or springs) (Mirza and Ahmad 2005). hydropower dams may enhance downstream dry- In 1995, around 12.4 km3/year of untreated water season flow (providing potential additional water was discharged into water bodies (Ahmad 2008), resources to downstream users but, at the same 24 Socio-economic and Environmental Drivers of Water Demand and Supply time, threatening ecosystems that rely on flow and future economic efficiency in industries and variability) as well as reducing flood risks by storing urban communities. excess floodwater during the high-flow season. Areas with potential for hydropower development 3.2. Socio-economic drivers of water are characterized by high annual rainfall, river flow demand with limited sediment content (to minimize reservoir While climate change is expected to increase water siltation and wear on turbines), and availability of stress in South Asia, it is only one of a number of land and steep terrain to generate sufficient head for factors. Population growth, increasing urbanization power production. and expanding economies are already increasing demand for water. As a result of these factors, water There is high hydropower development potential use in Asia has more than tripled over the last 50 in Bhutan and Nepal. Almost all hydropower dams years and is expected to grow in future (Mishra in Bhutan and Nepal are run-of-the-river with 2002). generating capacity limited during dry season low- flow. Selling of electricity to India is a potential driver The conceptual link between population growth and of hydropower development in these two countries. water demand is clear. Increasing population will Nevertheless, the fragile mountain environments require increasing access to water for livelihood and in which dams may be constructed require careful economic purposes, all other factors being equal. planning in the selection of sites, and effective Figure 3.3 shows the projected population growth for system sustainability built into the development of the seven South Asian countries. Only Afghanistan all hydropower projects. and Pakistan have continuing population growth to 2100. The others are projected to reach peak Environmental water. The importance of providing population around 2050. water for the environment is not well understood. This is in spite of the reliance of many communities Irrigation water supply will come under pressure across the region on services provided by water- in several river basins. Growing population will dependent ecosystems (the rivers themselves, intensify the competition for water. If water supply lakes, floodplains, marshes, estuaries). Livelihoods is not expanded, more water will be claimed for in downstream areas, such as the Indus and GBM municipal, industrial and environmental flows, and deltas, are dependent on the continued productivity pose a serious threat to water for food (Strzepek and of fisheries and floodplains. Aquatic ecosystems are Boehlert 2010). Liu et al 2013 estimate the expected progressively being degraded as water is abstracted deficits in the resulting irrigation water supply from from rivers and groundwater systems for irrigation, 2011 to 2050 in South Asian river basins in different industry, power generation and municipal water countries without factoring climate change (see supplies. Abstractions and impoundments not Table 3.2). In Bangladesh, deficits of between 18% only diminish the quantity of water available for and 21% are expected in the Brahmaputra and ecosystem purposes but also alter timings and Ganges basins. In India, the deficits will range from patterns of river flows. The lack of environmental a low of 1% (Mahi Tapi) to a high of 90% (Luni). In flows can affect urban water users and industries Nepal, the Ganges river basin will have a decline of too – some valuable free benefits (such as natural 1%. In Pakistan, the Indus is projected to decline removal of excess nutrients and the breakdown of by 43%. Unless there is government intervention, organic contaminants) are compromised when flow these deficits will increase the value of water, lead patterns are severely degraded. Consequently, the to a decline in food production, an increase in food neglect of environmental flows is not just an issue of imports, an increase in food prices, a shift from equity between poorer communities perhaps more irrigated to rain fed crops and a decline in GDP. In all reliant than others on ecosystem services, but is an cases the largest impacts will be in Pakistan. issue of unnecessary environmental and other costs Socio-economic and Environmental Drivers of Water Demand and Supply 25 Figure 3.3 - Change in population in the South Asian countries from 2015-2100 Population Change (2015-2100) 1,800.000 1,600.000 1,400.000 1,200.000 Population (millions) 1,000.000 800.000 600.000 400.000 200.000 0 Sri Lanka India Pakistan Bangladesh Nepal Bhutan Afghanistan 2015 20.72 1,311.05 188.93 161 28.51 0.78 32.53 2030 21.54 1,527.66 244.92 186.46 33.1 0.89 43.85 2050 20.84 1,705.33 309.64 202.21 36.16 0.95 55.96 2100 14.86 1,659.79 364.28 169.54 29.68 0.79 57.64 Data source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision, Key Findings and Advance Tables. Working Paper No. ESA/P/WP.241 Table 3.2 - Expected changes in water supply for irrigation by country and river basin (% change in 2011-2050) Reduction in Reduction in Country River Basin irrigation water Country River Basin irrigation water (%) (%) Bangladesh Brahmaputra -17.9 India Indus -7.1 Bangladesh Ganges -21.3 India Krishna -42.6 India Cauvery -49.6 India Luni -89.5 India Chotanagpur -23.8 India Mahi Tapti -1.2 India Eastern Ghats -34.5 India Sahyada -5.7 India Ganges -15.7 Nepal Ganges -0.8 India Godavari -19.7 Pakistan Indus -42.7 India East Coast -42.1 R. of S. Asia Indus -43.8 Note: River basins with no or small change in water scarcity are not included in this table Source: Liu et al. (2013) reported in Markandya et al (2017) 26 Socio-economic and Environmental Drivers of Water Demand and Supply South Asian countries have relatively low a decline in irrigation area as a function of income, urbanization rates compared to other developing implying that the South Asian countries studied here regions (Ellis and Roberts 2016). Nevertheless, the with per capita GNIs from $680-$3440 will remain urban share of each country’s population, with the on the rising arc of the curve for some decades. That exception of Sri Lanka, has increased between 2000 is, irrigation water use will continue to increase with and 2010 with Bhutan having the highest annual rising incomes until such time as the demands from urban growth share of 3%. This increasing level of and impacts on other sectors are detrimental to urbanization is believed to lead to dietary changes wider economic development, including the trade- with a general trend towards more water-intensive offs between agricultural demand and demand from diets (Katz 2015), although this may be the result growing urban areas. of increased income rather than urbanization. The evidence for links between increased urbanization Overall, South Asian countries are likely to face an and water use are not well established. increasing demand for water, without factoring in the effects of climate change, from on-going population The link between economic development and water growth, growing needs to feed and provide energy use is complex. The relationship has been assumed to a growing population, economic development to be an inverted U-shaped curve (a Kuznets Curve) and possibly slowly-increasing rates of urbanization. where water use initially increases with rising national This rapidly rising demand needs to be met through income and then declines as the major water using improved water management (including water use industries (especially irrigated agriculture) decline in efficiency, demand-side management, recycling importance and water use efficiencies improve across and reuse of water, conjunctive use of surface and all sectors – including greater so-called ‘allocative groundwater, and better monitoring and information efficiency’ as more water goes to higher value uses gathering) because the opportunities for new water and away from primary agricultural production. storage infrastructure are becoming costly and However multi-country and multi-sectoral studies diminishing. The costs of new storage infrastructure of water use and economic growth have produced are likely to exceed the benefit of making better use conflicting results .5 of existing water resources. Bhattarai (2004) examined the relationship between 3.3. Environmental Drivers of Water irrigation water use and income for 13 Asian Demand and Supply countries, including Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Climate change adds a further layer to these existing Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka, and found evidence for water challenges. However, the relative impacts of a Kuznets relationship. However, other factors, such growth and the changing climate are not uniform as macro-economic policy, agricultural productivity, across South Asia. In some regions, the increasing types of structural change in the economy (and wider demand for water from socio-economic growth will global economy), electricity use, and underlying outweigh the projected impacts of climate change public institutions and governance structures also for many decades; in other regions, climate change affect irrigation development and water use. This will potentially place greater pressures on water severely limits the use of the Kuznets curve as a resources than the interrelated complex between predictive model for specific countries. Bhattarai population and economic growth. Fant et al (2016) (2004) uses Taiwan and Japan (per capita GNI have separated out the potential impacts of climate $42,000) as examples of Asian countries that show 5 Some studies identify Kuznet-type relationships between sectoral water use and income (e.g. Jia et al 2006, Bhattarai 2004), while others (e.g. Gleick 2003) found no relationship between capita national water use and income. Katz (2015) has re-examined these earlier studies and has concluded that, while there was some evidence of a Kuznets-type relationship, the results were highly dependent on the statistical techniques used and the data sets. He also concluded that, even when relationships were detected, these multi-country studies provided little guidance on the relationships between rising income levels and water use for individual countries. Socio-economic and Environmental Drivers of Water Demand and Supply 27 change from those arising from socio-economic resources are to be managed. This illustrates the growth (both population and economic growth) need for any future adaptation frameworks and on water stress by 2050 in densely populated actions at the level of policy and practice to keep a watersheds in selected Asian countries including balanced view of relative drivers between population China, three South Asian nations - Afghanistan, India and economic growth and the impacts of climate and Pakistan – and other nations. change and variability. It is the intersections between all three and the risks and sensitivities that will arise The study found that most of China, particularly that should form specific areas of attention. the North of the country, as well as Pakistan and Afghanistan are primarily vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, while India, China and Mainland Southeast Asia are expected to be more vulnerable to increased demands due to socioeconomic developments. By 2050, if adaptive responses are not developed, a large proportion of people currently living in moderately water-stressed regions will be living in areas that are heavily stressed. In the median case, this number is expected to be as much as 1 billion people which is 50% higher than the baseline case of current climate and growth rate for the year 2000. When a basin-specific perspective is taken, the Indus Basin already experiences a significant level of water stress in the baseline case, with both climate change and growth expecting to exacerbate this about equally into the future. This pattern is also expected to be seen in the Ganges Basin. In the Brahmaputra Basin, the impact of growth is expected to be more substantial in determining water stress, while the impact of climate change is expected to be about neutral. Overall, socioeconomic changes and climate change impacts are expected to have differing sectoral impacts on water stress. Industrial and municipal water are expected to increase considerably faster than irrigation water demand. Parts of India are expected to experience 2-5 times the baseline growth in domestic water demand. Pressure for maintaining adequate environmental flows will also grow. By 2050, the impacts of changes to climate, while important under present conditions, will be overshadowed by changes in socioeconomic growth and water requirements. Thus, socioeconomic changes in these regions can be expected to be more important in determining in how future water 28 Socio-economic and Environmental Drivers of Water Demand and Supply E X T R E M E E V E NTS U ND E R C L I M ATE C HA NGE as chapter 2 m a k e s c l e a r , c l i m at e c h a n g e w i l l b r i n g a b o u t n ot o n ly c h a n g e s i n av e r ag e m e t eo r o lo g i c a l a n d h y d r o lo g i c a l pa r a m e t e r s ( s u c h a s i n c r e a s e s i n av e r ag e t e m p e r at u r e s a n d r i s i n g s e a - l e v e l s ) b u t a l s o m o r e va r i a b i l i t y i n t h e s e pa r a m e t e r s . t h e i n c r e a s e d va r i a b i l i t y w i l l m a n i f e s t i t s e l f a s a n i n c r e a s e i n t h e f r eq u e n c y a n d m ag n i t u d e o f e x t r e m e e v e n t s . i p c c ( 2014 a ) s tat e s t h at “ c l i m at e - c h a n g e - r e l at e d r i s k s f r o m e x t r e m e e v e n t s , s u c h a s h e at wav e s , e x t r e m e p r ec i p i tat i o n , a n d c oa s ta l f lo o d i n g , a r e a l r e a dy m o d e r at e ( h i g h c o n f i d e n c e ) a n d h i g h w i t h 1 ° c a d d i t i o n a l wa r m i n g ( m e d i u m c o n f i d e n c e ). r i s k s a s s o c i at e d w i t h s o m e t y p e s o f e x t r e m e e v e n t s ( e . g ., e x t r e m e h e at ) i n c r e a s e f u rt h e r at h i g h e r t e m p e r at u r e s ( h i g h c o n f i d e n c e ).” a l r e a dy s o u t h a s i a h a s e x p e r i e n c e d a n i n c r e a s e i n wa r m days a n d n i g h t s a n d a d ec r e a s e i n c o l d days a n d n i g h t s s i n c e t h e 1950 s , t h e f r eq u e n c y o f h e at wav e s h a s i n c r e a s e d s i n c e t h e m i d d l e o f t h e 20 t h c e n t u ry , a n d t h e r e h av e b e e n m o r e e x t r e m e r a i n fa l l e v e n t s i n c e n t r a l i n d i a ( i p c c 2014 b ). South Asia is highly vulnerable to water-related alone. Among all types of natural disasters, drought extreme events: droughts, floods of different types, affects large areas and by far the largest number landslides and siltation are major threats. This of people through water shortage, food shortage chapter summarizes these climate risks, and includes and energy shortage and sometimes associated fine resolution maps of drought and flood hazard heat waves. Lack of precipitation can significantly developed using MODIS time series satellite imagery impact agricultural output since approximately 60% at a scale of 500 m, and ranks climate related risks in of cultivated areas in South Asia are rainfed. Figure each country. 4.1 shows drought hazard areas of South Asia determined from MODIS satellite imagery based 4.1. Droughts on time series images from 2000 to 2013 using a Consecutive years of El Nino monsoon failure in resolution of 500m. 2014-2016 affected 330 million people in India Figure 4.1 - Drought hazard area mapped using MODIS images 2003-2013 (Giriraj et al 2016) Extreme Events under Climate Change 29 Droughts have been found to be more frequent during also subject to droughts with most occurring during the years following ENSO events (Dai 2012) and the the inter-monsoonal months from January to March warming of the Eastern Equatorial Pacific Ocean. At and August to September. The 2015/16 drought in least half of the severe failures of monsoons since Sri Lanka resulted in severe water, food and energy 1871 have occurred during El Niño years (Webster et shortages and severe impacts on livelihoods in the al. 1998). Countries mostly affected by droughts are dry zone. located in semiarid and arid areas like Afghanistan, Pakistan and some parts of India or where river flows 4.2. Floods become very low during the dry season (Bangladesh), South Asia experiences both large scale riverine partly due to upstream flow diversion. In Bhutan, floods and coastal floods as well as more localized Nepal and Sri Lanka, droughts have minor effects floods such as flash floods and glacial lake outburst compared to those in other climate-related disasters. floods (GLOFs). Due to their size and sediment loads, the largest rivers of South Asia are difficult The 1978-79 drought in Bangladesh affected half of to manage and regularly cause flooding. Riverine the cultivated land and population, destroying over 2 floods lead to significant indirect losses including the million tons of rice. Most drought problems in India degradation of agricultural land which subsequently are related to the availability of food, safe drinking diminishes agricultural productivity, impacting rural water and shelter. Droughts not only affect surface development and income opportunities, as well water availability but also the recharge of aquifers as the contamination of surface and groundwater, which are currently depleted by unsustainable either with salt intrusion or pollutant dissemination. pumping rates. Alongside Afghanistan, Pakistan is Riverine floods also damage water infrastructure the most water-scarce country in South Asia due including hydropower dams and irrigation schemes. to its semi-arid climate. With growing population This last decade saw the highest number of reported and food demand, large irrigation areas can become flood disasters with the greatest spatial coverage on rapidly water-stressed. Because of repeated droughts record. These included the devastating 2010 floods and rising water demand, aquifers of Baluchistan in Pakistan and the 2013 Uttarakhand floods in India province are dropping by 3.5 m annually, and are (Box 4.1). estimated to run out in a couple of decades with massive internal displacements expected. Sri Lanka is Box 4.1 - Seasonal Estimates of Irrigation Water Demand in South Asia Both India and Pakistan suffer severe flooding. About two-thirds of Pakistan lies in the Indus Basin. Floods can cover up to a fifth of the country, posing high risks to riverine populations. Luo et al. (2015) indicate that 710,000 people in Pakistan are exposed to risks of annual river floods, while in some years, the number of affected people reaches up to 21 million (Syvitski and Brakenridge 2013). Over the last 6 years, Pakistan has witnessed three major floods. The 2009 floods were caused by a major embankment breach that changed the course of the floodwater entirely (Winsemius et al. 2013). The lack of plans to handle large sediment loads transported during floods is one major reason that has led to severe flood impacts in Pakistan (Syvitski and Brakenridge 2013; Winsemius et al. 2013). The catastrophic 2010 flood along the Indus River was caused by exceptional rainfall in conjunction with a reduction in conveyance capacity of water and sediment, and dam and barrage-related backwater effects (Syvitski and Brakenridge 2013). On average, annual floods in Pakistan result in a loss of 1% of total GDP, which is equivalent to USD1.7 billion. The 2010 floods cost the country USD10 billion in damage. In June 2013, India suffered severe flooding in Uttarakhand caused by exceptionally heavy rainfall. Over a thousand people were killed and many thousands more displaced, as well as destruction to key infrastructure (ReliefWeb). Source: Lacombe et al (2017) 30 Extreme Events under Climate Change Figure 4.2 shows the extent of riverine flood hazard occur along the lower reaches of the Ganges and based on data from 200 to 2012 using a spatial Brahmaputra floodplains and along the length of the resolution of 500m. Areas of high flood hazard Indus river. Figure 4.2 - Recurrent flood inundation extent mapped using MODIS time-series imagery for South Asia. (Giriraj et al 2016) Densely populated lowland areas of Bangladesh GLOFs arise from a potentially catastrophic are exposed to coastal floods worsened by sea discharge of water from glacier lakes due to failure or level rise and cyclones (Box 4.2). According to the breach of unstable end moraines or ice dams. About International Disaster database coastal floods have 8,880 glacial lakes were recorded in Bhutan, India, caused far fewer casualties, affected fewer people Pakistan, Nepal and the Ganges basin in China in the and led to less damage than have other water- late 1990s and early 2000. Of these, 204 were listed related disasters in the region (http://www.emdat. as potentially dangerous. Some 56 GLOFs have been be/database). Those that have occurred have mainly reported in the HKH since the 1970s. These GLOFs been in India and Bangladesh. resulted in significant damage to crops, and hydraulic infrastructure, including hydropower plants, as well Localized flash floods commonly occur in the as injury and death to local people. In 1984, a GLOF foothills of the HKH mountains. High flow velocity of Lake Dig Tsho caused about 1 million m3 of water can cause extensive damage to crops, property and to be released, creating an initial peak discharge of infrastructure. Populations along river banks and 2,000 m3/s. This spectacular natural event eliminated foothills, on steep slopes, and in low-lying slums all the bridges for 42 km downstream with loss of and squatter settlements are particularly vulnerable life and property. However, the actual scale of GLOF to flash floods. Afghanistan, particularly the disasters in terms of casualties is relatively low, mountainous north-east of the country, is especially compared to other climate-related risks. vulnerable to flash floods because of the lack of infrastructure, inadequate disaster preparedness, and poor socio-economic conditions. Eastern and Northern areas of Bangladesh adjacent to the border with India are also vulnerable to flash floods resulting from heavy rainfall occurring over hilly and mountainous regions. Extreme Events under Climate Change 31 Box 4.2 - Bangladesh flooding Bangladesh is the world’s most densely populated country and consists largely of a low, flat floodplain of the GBM (60% of the country lies between 0 and 6 meters above mean sea level). Due to its downstream location in the GBM, Bangladesh drains an area 12 times its size. On average, 22% of the country is flooded each year. The continued development of upstream parts of the basin, deforestation in the Himalayas, dyking along channels, land degradation and erosion have aggravated the flood situation. From 1987 to 2007, Bangladesh experienced five large floods (Mirza 2011). In 1988 and 1998, the peak flows of the Brahmaputra and the Ganges coincided, resulting in inundation of about 60% of the country (Khan 1999). The spatial extent of flooding is usually aggravated by heavy monsoonal rainfall and cyclonic surges. Cyclones and storms are the major cause of coastal floods in low-lying and coastal parts of Bangladesh. Sea level rise by just a meter, in response to strong winds for example, frequently causes disasters. Over the last 40 years, 520,000 deaths have been recorded, of which approximately 300,000 and 140,000 were caused by two cyclone events that occurred in 1970 and in 1991, respectively (World Bank 2012). Eastern and northern areas of Bangladesh adjacent to the border with India are vulnerable to flash floods resulting from heavy rainfall occurring over hilly and mountainous regions. The normal period of flash flooding is late April to early May and from September to November (Mirza and Ahmad 2005). Source: Lacombe et al (2017) 4.3. Landslides/Mudslides The Mangla and Tarbela Dams/Reservoirs play an important role in the economy of the country yet, due Landslides/mudslides have increased over recent to sedimentation, these reservoirs are losing about years due to more intense anthropogenic activities, 0.031 and 0.14 km3/year in live storage capacity, especially deforestation, particularly in the HKH respectively. About 794×106 tons of sediments are (e.g. in Nepal). Landslides are costly, having caused transported by the Ganges Rivers each year, with an estimated US $ 37 billion in damage6. India, 80 ± 10% coming from the High Himalaya, and 20 ± Bangladesh, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Nepal are the 10% from the Lesser Himalaya. About 8% of the river most affected countries but other nations are also sediment is deposited on floodplains and delta plains impacted. Recent floods and mudslides in Sri Lanka, in Bangladesh. The remaining ~ 45%, is deposited in for example, claimed nearly 150 lives, left 77,000 the subaqueous delta and the Bengal Fan (Wasson, people homeless and destroyed 1500 homes. 2003). High sediment deposition rates in the delta 4.4. High Erosion Rates/ of the GBM partly compensates for land subsidence (Brown and Nicholls, 2015) and therefore slows Sedimentation down the detrimental effects of sea level rise. In the Indus River Basin, perennial runoff, partly sustained by ice- and snowmelt, is responsible for 4.5. Climate change will aggravate high erosion rates on hillslopes where vegetation all water-related extreme events is sparse and the soil is fragile due to semi-arid More intense and concentrated rainfall is expected to climate and agriculture intensification. The Indus generate sharper and more destructive flash floods. River and its tributaries carry about 0.44 km3 of This will be the case especially in mountainous sediment annually of which nearly 60% is deposited areas (Afghanistan, Bhutan, Nepal, Northern India, in natural depressions, reservoirs, canals and Northern Bangladesh, Northern Pakistan), and more irrigation schemes. In the Tarbela catchments, 167 erosion and downstream siltation (especially in m3 of silt are eroded per square kilometre per year. semi-arid areas like Afghanistan, Northern India and 6 http:\www.emdat.be 32 Extreme Events under Climate Change Pakistan), with loss of water storage capacity, and been properly assessed. For example, increasing crop reduced groundwater recharge (due both to altered water demand because of rising temperatures is likely rainfall patterns and siltation of water bodies). to further reduce river flows and groundwater levels. Temperature rise is also inducing snow and ice 4.6. Climate Change Risks melt increasing the risk of GLOFs (Bhutan, Nepal, Each country faces a different risk profile from India, Pakistan), and earlier flood peaks in the year water-related climate change impacts. Table 4.1 (springtime) in snow/ice fed rivers (e.g. Indus). This is a ranking of risks each country faces based on will not match irrigation peak demand in summer historical damage from water-related extreme events time and will impact food security and hydropower (drawing from data available at http://www.emdat. production, increase crop water demand and be/ and Giriraj et al 2016) and priorities identified increase evaporation losses from surface reservoirs. in country climate change policy instruments (Davis and Hirji 2017). This ranking integrates damage Sea level rise combined with more intense and costs, casualties and numbers of affected people, frequent cyclones will induce destructive coastal under the recent climate regime and has a subjective flooding. The most vulnerable areas to coastal element - priorities defined in the respective climate flooding will be the low-lying and densely populated change instruments. Damage acts as a surrogate for areas, (e.g. Bangladesh) and those areas where costal risk in this table, although the table does not include aquifers are at risk (e.g. in Sri Lanka). some risks arising from gradual changes in climate Prolonged droughts will affect all countries and hydrological parameters, such as diminishing during the dry season, especially with rising food mean annual flows in rivers, steadily increasing demand related to overall population growth and rates of evapotranspiration because of rising mean economic development. Semi-arid and arid zones temperatures leading to increasing irrigation water (e.g. Afghanistan, Pakistan, North-west India) will demand, or changing patterns of groundwater be the most vulnerable to droughts, worsened by recharge. In the future (as climate continues to glacier melting, reduced groundwater recharge and change), coastal flood and storm/cyclone risk levels reservoir siltation, affecting not only agriculture will rise, especially in Bangladesh but this will not but also industrial and domestic water uses. Water- necessarily change the risk categories (high, medium, dependent ecosystems will also be affected by low) as all other risks may also increase concurrently. climate change, although these impacts have not Table 4.1 - Ranking of climate-related risks Countries Risk level Afghanistan Bangladesh Bhutan India Nepal Pakistan Sri Lanka High risk Flash flood Riverine flood Landslide Drought GLOF Drought Storm/Cyclone level Landslide Storm/Cyclones Flash flood Riverine flood Flash flood Groundwater Riverine flood Riverine flood Costal floods G:LOF Flash flood Landslide depletion Coastal flood Siltation Groundwater Landslide depletion Medium Drought Erosion Erosion/siltation Landslide Drought Riverine flood Flash flood risk level Erosion/siltation Drought Riverine flood Storm/Cyclone Erosion/siltation GLOF Landslide Groundwater Groundwater Drought Coastal aquifer Groundwater Flash flood Erosion/siltation depletion Depletion salinization depletion Erosion/siltation Drought Coastal aquifer Groundwater Coastal aquifer salinization salinization salinization Low risk GLOF Flash flood Storm/cyclone GLOF Riverine flood Coastal flood Groundwater level Storm/Cyclone Landslide Groundwater Erosion/siltation Storm/cyclone Storm/Cyclones depletion depletion Not all risks are not all relevant to all countries and, to prioritize, countries could focus on the high level risk followed by medium level risk. Extreme Events under Climate Change 33 ADAPTATION FRAMEWORK FOR WATER RESOURCES PLANNING, DEVELOPMENT AND MANAGEMENT pa rt 1 d i s c u s s e d wat e r r e s o u r c e s m a n ag e m e n t a s a k e y d e v e lo p m e n t c h a l l e n g e . b ox 5 . 1 l i s t s t h e m a i n e l e m e n t s o f s o u t h a s i a ’ s wat e r r e s o u r c e s m a n ag e m e n t s t r at egy d i s c u s s e d i n c h a p t e r 1 . wat e r f o r a l l u s e s , pa rt i c u l a r ly i r r i g at i o n , i s p r oj ec t e d to b ec o m e i n c r e a s i n g ly s c a r c e a s a r e s u lt o f p o p u l at i o n g r o w t h a n d ec o n o m i c d e v e lo p m e n t . c l i m at e c h a n g e i s p r oj ec t e d to e x ac e r b at e wat e r s c a r c i t y b ec au s e o f i n c r e a s e d wat e r d e m a n d a s a r e s u lt o f r i s i n g t e m p e r at u r e s a n d (in some areas) r e d u c e d a n n ua l av e r ag e p r ec i p i tat i o n a n d / o r a lt e r e d pat t e r n s o f p r ec i p i tat i o n a n d d i m i n i s h e d g r o u n d wat e r q ua l i t y i n c oa s ta l aq u i f e r s f r o m r i s i n g s e a l e v e l s . i t i s a l s o e x p ec t e d to i m pac t e x t r e m e h y d r o lo g i c a l e v e n t s . Addressing this important development challenge water supply and demand side management options, will require greater policy coherence and integration investments in flood management and drought across many economic sectors and administrative resilience, and capacity to manage the region’s water jurisdictions. They will also require investments in resources challenges. Box 5.1 - The main elements of South Asia’s water resources management strategy • Developing reliable supplies for meeting growing domestic, industrial, and agriculture water demand, and energy uses; • Promoting sustainable use, protecting water quality, and managing watersheds, aquifers, lakes and wetlands; • Systematic planning, development and management to address the systemic risks emerging of water-related disasters-droughts, floods, sedimentation; • Promoting collaborative management of shared waters across districts, river basins and aquifers, states and provinces, and nations; • Integrating water policies and actions with those outside the water sector (environment, land use, energy). 34 Adaptation Framework for Water Resources Planning, Development and Management Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM)7 This chapter introduces key features of IWRM, but is an approach that seeks to improve the efficiency, also highlights its limitations. It discusses IWRM in equity and sustainability with which a country’s the context of climate change adaptation, highlighting water resources are managed. It is a key part of the the pros and cons of using it as an adaptive approach adaptation toolkit available for promoting greater to water planning, development and management. integration across water and water-impacting Finally, the adaptation framework that is used to sectors in South Asia. Other approaches in the guide the reviews under chapters 6-10 is presented. toolkit are the water-food-energy (WEF) nexus and its variant the water-food-energy-environment 5.1. Integrated Water Resources (WEFE) nexus. The latter two are useful approaches Management to address inter-sectoral allocation issues and IWRM is defined as “a process which promotes the policy distortions, but are ill-suited for dealing coordinated development and management of water, with risks of extreme hydrological variability, non- land and related resources, in order to maximize the stationarity, conjunctive management of surface and resultant economic and social welfare in an equitable groundwater or managing water at inter-state, inter- manner without compromising the sustainability of province or transboundary levels. When addressing vital ecosystems” (Global Water Partnership 2000 climate variability, IWRM emphasizes the need for p 22). This definition makes clear that IWRM stronger data collection (water availability, use and aspires to incorporate both development as well as quality), more effective management – assessment, management of water resources. It also states that allocation, regulation, reuse, improved efficiency IWRM is a process to achieve an end rather than an of water use, conservation and protection of water end in itself, and in which should be embedded cycles resources, appropriate infrastructure development, of learning that support continuous improvement in better planning processes and institutional management practice. coordination. The term ‘integration’ in IWRM carries a number of Moving from statement in policy to IWRM meanings. Most importantly, it refers to integration institutional implementation is a complex process. of multi-sectoral and multi-jurisdictional dimensions It is necessarily incremental in pace with reforms of water. This means the integration of water- taking decades to implement. Although our analysis dependent sectors (including irrigation, hydropower, shows that IWRM is embedded in water and climate industry, domestic water supply and environment) policy instruments in nearly all South Asian nations, in decisions about water allocation and use, but also earlier chapters also highlight the fragmented and integration of decisions by water-using or affecting in some cases almost disintegrated state of water individuals or administrative units upstream on a resources management practice. Building effective river with those affected downstream. This includes adaptation capacity through IWRM as one key tool different political boundaries – villages, cities, will require greater policy coherence, integration, district, states, provinces and nations – as well as coordination and collaboration in combination with integration of the management of water quantity effective implementation across many sectors of the (water utilization) and quality (protection of water economy. quality and control of pollution from point and nonpoint sources of water), integrated management 7 The four Dublin Principles (from the International Conference on Water and Environment held in January 1992 in Dublin) and endorsed at the UN Conference on Environment and Development in June 1992 in Rio de Janeiro for developing new approaches for the assessment, development, and management of freshwater resources are: (1) Effective management of water resources demands a holistic approach linking social and economic development with protection of natural ecosystems, including land and water linkages across catchment areas or groundwater aquifers; (2) Water development and management should be based on a participatory approach involving users, planners, and policy makers at all levels; (3) Women play a central part in providing, managing, and safeguarding water; and (4) Water has an economic value in all its competing uses and should be recognized as an economic good. Adaptation Framework for Water Resources Planning, Development and Management 35 of connected surface and groundwater systems, depend on these water resources. The environment integrated management of water bodies (rivers, is included as a water-using sector along with lakes, aquifers) and connected catchments, and the irrigation, energy and water supply in recognition integration of freshwater and connected estuarine of its provision of ecosystem services such as and marine systems. mangroves that provide storm surge protection and trap sediment, floodplains that attenuate peak flood Essentially, IWRM advocates the management of events and allow the recharge of alluvial aquifers, the complete water cycle at a watershed scale, with and removal of nutrients and other contaminants to inputs from water-users themselves. The emphasis make water more potable for downstream domestic on coordination is just a means to allow the cycle consumption. In this report, the combination of to be managed as a whole. IWRM also recognizes the water resources sector and the water-using that some tasks can only be undertaken at the State sectors (i.e., the whole comb) are referred to as the or National scale such as managing transboundary water sector. IWRM can be used to protect water water and establishing the rules by which water quantity and quality in the natural environment management is to occur. Box 5.2 list the key (surface and groundwater) and to plan and manage elements of IWRM. The challenges here include access of the various water-using sectors to the both assuming that water users want to be water resource. It can also be used to manage hydrological managers, and that they are capable as managers variability, including extremes, through drought in their own right, including having the necessary planning, preparedness and management as well as management tools and levels of knowledge at their flood forecasting, planning and management. The disposal. provision of infrastructure is an essential element of IWRM, along with the policy/institutional framework IWRM means using different management needed to implement integrated management, the instruments in a coherent and collective manner use of a range of management instruments (described under systems of resource governance that engage below), and attention to the political economy of stakeholders (as users) alongside planners in resource water management including the norms and issues allocation and management decision-making. Water under each jurisdiction within which IWRM is to be resources are commonly depicted in the IWRM applied. In general, IWRM provides a framework for framework as constituting the handle – the blue part a structured review of supply driven and demand – of a comb (Figure 5.1) where the teeth – the white management options. parts – of the comb are the various sectors that use or Figure 5.1 - Conceptual framework of integrated water resources management. (Global Water Partnership 2000) Intagrated Water Resources Management Infrastructure for management of floods and droughts, conjunctive use of surface and groundwater, multipurpose storage, water quality management and source protection Policy/Institutional framework for supply side and Water for Water for Water for Water for Other demand management options People Food Energy Environment uses Management instruments Political economy of water management Water by usage 36 Adaptation Framework for Water Resources Planning, Development and Management Box 5.2 - Some of the key features of IWRM • Takes an inter-sectoral approach to water resources management and development. Coordination across sectors is essential because links between activities within a watershed need to be understood within sectoral ministries. It is not uncommon to find substantial barriers between ministries, and with technically competent professionals who pursue narrow sectoral objectives. Establishing a genuinely inter-sectoral approach is probably the most challenging feature of IWRM as it often upsets established power relationships. • Decentralizes management to the basin level. This is the natural area within which many (not all) water-related decisions take place, are interdependent and need to be managed. Decentralization has proven difficult partly because it challenges the authority of centralized water management agencies, and partly because river basins do not match existing institutional boundaries. • Manages water efficiently and cost-effectively. This includes assessing surface and groundwater resources, allocating use through transparent processes, regulating use to ensure equitable access and environmental flows, conjunctive use and management of surface and groundwater, recycling of water, reuse of wastewater, desalinization of seawater, and integration of environmental and social impacts of water use decisions. • Protects and manages water quality. This includes monitoring and assessment of surface and groundwater quality, regulating and controlling wastewater discharges from cities, villages, industries, and mines and runoff from agricultural fields and urban areas. • Strengthens demand management. This establishes prices for surface and groundwater use that reflect its full value, introduces water efficient technologies and a sense of responsibility among water using groups, and builds decentralized water management authorities. • Ensures equitable access to water. Establishes water user associations (WUAs) to provide a voice for individual and community water users, including marginalized groups. It is also important to integrate equity considerations within policies, strategies and plans for infrastructure investments and management activities by, for example, extending water supply to poor communities. Equity also implies that groups that contribute to water resources issues take responsibility for their impacts. This includes the private sector that can seriously affect both the quantity and quality of surface and groundwater. • Establishes policies so that government intentions are clear. This is important to establish over- arching principles such as State ownership of water, ensuring polluters pay, establishing water quality standards, and introducing market-based regulatory mechanisms. Policies should be backed by legislation that provides institutions with the authority to implement these policies. Source: Global Water Partnership (2000) There is no universal model for implementing 5.2. Limitations of IWRM IWRM, however. Different features will be needed, A number of commentators have criticized IWRM on depending on specific issues facing each country both conceptual and practical grounds (e.g., Gain et from water management norms and priorities to al. 2013). The principal conceptual objection is that the state of knowledge on existing water resources there are so many different interpretations of IWRM and future trends in demand and use. Twenty years that it is not possible to know what the concept means of experience shows that implementing IWRM is in practice (Biswas 2008). While the description of almost always challenging and, as a result, frequently IWRM is clear, in practice is interpreted in many incremental, long-term and slow. It is worth different ways by different stakeholders. In this report agreeing on an implementation strategy with agreed we use the above widely-accepted GWP definition milestones and timetables, but at the same time to help anchor our conceptual understanding. The these should be open for review and modification as practical objections are concerned with the difficulty experience is gained of what works/does not work. of bringing about the major changes proposed in Adaptation Framework for Water Resources Planning, Development and Management 37 IWRM. For example, a mechanism for coordinating An important point is that adaptation to decisions about water development and management climate change is about improving existing will always be challenging when sectoral ministries water management rather than undertaking a act independently. Similarly, agencies responsible fundamentally new approach. Shah and Lele for managing water quantity and water quality do (2011), in their report from an International Water not always work together efficiently. However, Management Institute (IWMI) and Global Water it is difficult to see how progress can be made Partnership (GWP) workshop on adapting to climate in sharing scarce and uncertain water resources change in the water sector in South Asia, concluded without challenging some traditional social and that “climate change adaptation does not call for institutional relationships and assumptions. In order a different way of managing water resources; we to have genuinely robust, resilient and sustainable need to simply do a far better job of planning and development (included within which is strong managing our water resources than we have done so adaptation capacity), integration of water resources far” (p14). Having said this, there are two additional management is a necessary, but not sufficient, topics that need to be added to the suite of existing condition. Snellen and Schrevel (2004), in their water management activities – the effects of non- comprehensive review of IWRM, conclude that, stationarity of climate parameters (see Paper 1) in spite of the difficulties of implementation, “It is now need to be accounted for (for example, in generally accepted that to manage water resources monitoring, modeling and establishing infrastructure there is no alternative to IWRM” (p 14). design standards and operating procedures), and the impacts of sea-level rise on coastal surface and Consequently, we have structured this paper around groundwater systems need to be added to existing IWRM concepts because they remain the best coastal water quality concerns, especially for rural blueprint for improving water management and are and urban water supplies. widely-accepted among South Asian governments. We also recognize that the conceptual terrain is Adoption of IWRM principles means that water users complex and changing and IWRM is one of a suite and water managers can adapt to climate change by of approaches that can help strengthen adaption using water more efficiently and equitably where responses in water management in the region. there is increasing pressure on water availability, and managers can respond more flexibly in the 5.3. IWRM and Climate Change face of increasing variability. Consequently, IWRM Climate change affects many water dependent is well placed to be a foundation on which to build sectors (irrigation, water supply and sanitation, adaptation to the effects of climate change for a hydropower generation, industry, environment, number of reasons: and tourism) through changes to water availability, changes in water demand and increases in the risk • If countries follow a strictly sectoral approach of extreme events. Consequently, a number of to adaptation then they risk exacerbating reports conclude that water is the medium through competition for water resources. For example, which most early climate change impacts will be felt pursuit of a national food security strategy (Alavian et al. 2009, World Water Council 2009; through irrigation to respond to increased food Sadoff and Muller 2009a; Global Water Partnership import prices may cause shortages in water for 2007). Water also multiplies some of the impacts of hydropower generation and competition in climate change. For example, a 1% change in annual water availability for domestic water supply. average precipitation often translates into a 4-5% Also some mitigation strategies (such as a shift to change in runoff and stream-flow. Thus, adapting hydropower generation or increased reliance on to the effects of climate change means adapting biofuels) can have water resources implications. to changes in water availability, water demand and In reality, trade-offs will be needed between water-related risk. competing water demands. IWRM, with an emphasis on collaboration and consultation, 38 Adaptation Framework for Water Resources Planning, Development and Management provides tools for dealing with these conflicts integration of different sectors and management (Sadoff and Muller 2009a, b). elements, from knowledge production through design to strategy and implementation of actions • The emphasis on water use efficiency and (both in terms of hard and soft infrastructure). demand management under IWRM is also Overseeing all of this should be guidance by important, especially where water shortages are user-communities and according to stakeholder likely to increase because of shifts in demand or needs and understandings. reductions in water availability. Similarly, coping with existing climate variability through IWRM • Adaptation will require better information and helps adapt to increases in water variability from more responsive institutions together with both climate change (Cap-Net 2009). IWRM includes infrastructure investments and structural and infrastructure and institutional responses, nonstructural responses at all levels. IWRM demand management and supply augmentation, offers a coherent way to implement these as well as structural and nonstructural approaches responses (Global Water Partnership 2007). to efficiency (Box 3). • IWRM provides the tools to promote adaptation • IWRM works best when it builds in reflexive at all levels in a coherent way (Sadoff and learning to allow for modifications according to Muller 2009a, p16). “The impacts of variability, circumstance. As Slootweg (2009) points out, aggravated by climate change, will have to be changes in society such as population growth addressed at different levels. Individual farmers, and/or economic development are already strong commercial organizations, urban residents and drivers of change in water demand. Climate national governments will all have to engage with change adds yet another layer of complexity. the issues and take difficult decisions. Because IWRM – as a systematized way of thinking – decisions at all levels can affect the holistic copes with this, by providing robustness and resource, they will have to be coherent with one flexibility in solutions, as long as there is real another if they are to be effective.” Box 5.3 - Possible IWRM Activities to Respond to Climate Change In areas of water stress: Adaptation interventions could consist of: • Seasonal water rationing during times of shortage; • Adapt industrial and agricultural production to reduce water wastage; • Increase capture and storage of surface run-off; • Reuse or recycle wastewater after treatment; • Desalination of salty or brackish water; • Better recharge systems, monitoring and use of groundwater resources; and • Rainwater harvesting to augment availability and increase groundwater recharge capacity. In areas where water quality is affected, possible measures are: • Improvements to drainage systems to reduce different waters ‘mixing’ (blue, green, grey); • Upgrading or standardizing of water treatment at different levels and scales (from households through to urban areas and the wider landscapes in which they are situated) • Better monitoring of changes in quality; and • Special measures during high precipitation seasons to manage impacts on quality Source: adapted from CAPNET 2009 Adaptation Framework for Water Resources Planning, Development and Management 39 There are also shortcomings in using an IWRM river systems are transboundary in nature. Gain et al. approach to climate change adaptation. The World (2013) assessed six principles of IWRM against four Water Council (2009) cautions that, even though desirable characteristics of adaptive approaches. IWRM advocates a multi-sectoral approach amongst While they conclude that, overall, IWRM does water dependent sectors, its implementation is enhance adaptive responses to climate change, they inevitably limited when water decisions are affected see a need for IWRM to be more flexible if it is to by sectors outside of the water family. “Sectors be used to respond to the effects of climate change. outside the water sector may be totally ignorant of the principles of IWRM. For example, energy 5.4. Adaptation Framework supply, tourism, or agriculture all have to adapt to Figure 5.1 presents the five components (knowledge, potential water stress or water-related hazards governance, infrastructure, planning and management as a result of climate change. Yet, there are few and communications / education /participation) of mechanisms to get a foothold for IWRM in these IWRM that comprise the framework for reviewing sectors.” Also, IWRM has been developed primarily the primary and secondary climate risks. Each of for national water management and there are few these components plus adaptation financing are examples of the principles being successfully applied reviewed and elaborated in Chapters 6-11. to transboundary water management which is an important requirement in South Asia where all major Table 5.1 - Climate related risks to water resources and potential adaptation actions Governance Communications Planning/ Climate Risks Knowledge (policies and Infrastructure / Education / management institutions) Participation 1. Primary risks a) Changes in Research; weather Coordination Dams; inter- Flexible irrigation Water User precipitation monitoring between basin transfers; management Associations (especially meteorological, groundwater systems; inter- (WUAs) monsoon) water and recharge sector responses and farmer agriculture (including artificial to assist organizations agencies options) adaptation (FOs) involvement; capacity development; communication to farmers and other stakeholders b) Sea-level rise Monitoring; Coordination Embankments; Groundwater use Involvement research between water sub-surface plans; controls of coastal agencies, groundwater over groundwater communities; agriculture and barriers, use; capacity other water using maintaining and development sectors, and restoring natural coastal authorities shorelines c) Temperature Research; Coordination Soil and water Mapping trends Prevention of risk extremes monitoring between water, conservation; and designing for through public energy and improved peak demands information and productive sectors water supply information infrastructure sharing 40 Adaptation Framework for Water Resources Planning, Development and Management Table 5.1 - Climate related risks to water resources and potential adaptation actions (continuation) Governance Communications Planning/ Climate Risks Knowledge (policies and Infrastructure / Education / management institutions) Participation 2. Secondary risks a) Floods Monitoring and Coordination Embankments; Flood Public awareness early warning (interagency, Dams; flood management of flood risk systems government- refuges plans; restrict areas; capacity public) development on strengthening floodplains; flood mapping; flood insurance b) Droughts Weather Allocation Dams; interbasin Water allocation Involvement and prediction and priorities transfers; plans; conjunctive sharing local early warning and planning groundwater use; demand solutions; capacity communications; mechanisms; development management development research; coordination including pricing; monitoring between water efficiency agriculture / technologies; power / water irrigation and resources / urban water water supply; management; local institutional recycling and capacities to reuse manage scarce water resources and improvise c) Reduction in Monitoring and Coordination Check dams, Groundwater use Awareness of groundwater characterization of between recharge ponds, plans; controls groundwater recharge aquifers; research agriculture, managed over groundwater limitations; into groundwater; domestic water aquifer recharge use including capacity database on supply, industrial development indirect regulation; development groundwater- water use, water artificial recharge; related resources; public conjunctive use information, ownership of groundwater d) Increased Research into Coordination Sedimentation Land Awareness of soil erosion, landslides soil management between land, dams management; loss; participation and sedimentation and protection; water, energy and riparian and local monitoring and other agencies management; soil solutions; capacity early warning conservation development system e) Reduced water Monitoring; Coordination Wastewater Water quality Awareness on quality (surface research into between water treatment standards and pollution risks and groundwater) water quality resource and and pollution enforcement; and prevention treatment industry / treatment plants wastewater measures, polluter water supply and pollution pays principle and sanitation treatment agencies including through incentives and disincentives; recycling and reuse Adaptation Framework for Water Resources Planning, Development and Management 41 WATER RESOURCES AND CLIMATE KNOWLEDGE s o u n d wat e r r e s o u r c e s m a n ag e m e n t a n d a da p tat i o n i n t h e fac e o f c l i m at e r i s k s r eq u i r e s ac c u r at e i n f o r m at i o n a n d u n d e r s ta n d i n g o f h o w t h e q ua n t i t y a n d q ua l i t y o f wat e r va ry s pat i o - t e m p o r a l ly , w h i c h d r i v e r s a f f ec t t h e s e va r i at i o n s at d i f f e r e n t s c a l e s , a n d h o w c l i m at e c h a n g e i m pac t s w i l l m o d i f y t h e s e r e l at i o n s h i p s . i m p r ov e d k n o w l e d g e c a n a s s i s t d ec i s i o n m a k e r s i n r e s p o n d i n g to t h e p ot e n t i a l i m pac t s o f c l i m at e c h a n g e o n s u r fac e a n d g r o u n d wat e r ava i l a b i l i t y , wat e r q ua l i t y ( c o n ta m i n a n t s , s a l i n i t y , s e d i m e n tat i o n , e tc .), s e a - l e v e l r i s e , a n d e x t r e m e e v e n t s s u c h a s f lo o d s , g lo fs a n d d r o u g h t s . h o w e v e r , t h e i n f o r m at i o n g a i n e d f r o m wat e r r e s o u r c e s a n d c l i m at e i n v e s t i g at i o n s n e e d s to b e p r ov i d e d to d ec i s i o n m a k e r s at a l l l e v e l s – r eg i o n a l , n at i o n a l , s tat e / p r ov i n c e a n d lo c a l –in a n ac c e s s i b l e f o r m s o t h at t h e y c a n u n d e r s ta n d a n d u t i l i z e i t a p p r o p r i at e ly . This chapter discusses the main findings about key source of uncertainty is the poor representation climate and water resources knowledge and the of precipitation processes at high altitudes and recommendations for improving the knowledge base across strong elevation gradients and the paucity for making more informed decisions. of high-altitude data for calibration. Chapter 2 discussed the uncertainty in climate and hydrological 6.1. Main Findings projections and the contributing factors. In lieu of Addressing climate knowledge gaps. Knowledge uncertainty in climate and hydrological knowledge, about some important climate processes that still Box YY in chapter 8 discusses a risk-based approach needs to be improved across South Asia, include: developed to inform the planning and design of hydraulic infrastructure under climate uncertainty. • the changes in glacier and snow mass balances that influence flash flood risks and dry season Coping with droughts requires a better understanding water resources (e.g. in the Indus Basin); of hydro-meteorological processes that control the spatio-temporal variability of water resources and • the role of the atmospheric brown cloud in stronger models to predict droughts. The drivers climate change in South Asia where there are for spatio-temporal variability of precipitation in the high concentrations of atmospheric pollutants; South Asia region, and the effects of global warming and on this variability, are poorly understood. For • the dynamics and causes of land-subsidence in example, recent analysis has shown that, contrary to major river deltas related to sea-level rises. the accepted norm, the water yield is decreasing in surplus river basins but is increasing in deficit basins Modelling the effects of greenhouse gases on the (Ghosh et al 2016). climate and hydrology of South Asia is subject to considerable uncertainty. Apart from the challenges For coastal cities, towns and communities dependant associated with projections from Global Circulation on groundwater for drinking supply, systematic Models (GCMs), there are additional uncertainties monitoring of saltwater intrusion will need to be in the South Asia region because of the difficulty in a priority investment. In addition to installing modelling regional precipitation distribution where monitoring stations, this will require development the atmospheric dynamics controlling the monsoon and implementation of clear protocols for regularly are difficult to model (Turner and Annamalai 2012). A 42 Water Resources and Climate Knowledge measuring chloride, TDS or EC (as measures of Saline contamination of coastal aquifers during salinity) in defined monitoring wells. Saltwater storm surges is the major climate-related cause of intrusion in groundwater is generally very hard and groundwater contamination currently observed very expensive to reverse, and often, the damage in South Asia. The nearly 10,000 km-South Asian is irreversible. Clear management objectives have coastline (7,000 km in India, 1,340 km in Sri Lanka, to be set because measures to slow down, halt or 1,046 km in Pakistan and 580 km in Bangladesh) reverse saltwater intrusion vary. Options to address including some of the largest cities – Karachi, Mumbai, saltwater intrusion typically include reducing or Kolkata and Dhaka – and thousands of rural and urban stopping groundwater pumping, injecting freshwater communities are prone to groundwater contamination or treated wastewater to create a barrier to slow by saltwater intrusion, especially during droughts and down salinity movement or the use of other supply when groundwater levels are depleted. The presence options such as surface water, reuse of treated of tidal rivers and estuaries above an aquifer can also wastewater or treated seawater (desalination). lead to salinization of the aquifer as water infiltrates downward. Monitoring data are scarce, as are Gaps in water resources knowledge. The main data effective regulation and planning environments. limitations concern the distribution of groundwater contaminants, especially in deep aquifers, and the There needs to be a better understanding of the connectivity between groundwater and surface water linkages between surface and groundwater in the in the Indo-Gangetic Basin. The main hydrological Indo-Gangetic plain, if planned conjunctive use is modelling challenges in South Asia stem from limited to be effective. In Pakistan’s Punjab, it is necessary understanding of the processes regulating glacial to increase the number of monitoring wells and the melt in a complex orographic environment, and the frequency of monitoring to better understand the hydrological processes involved in extreme events temporal and spatial variations in groundwater levels (Mathison et al. 2015). and their connections with surface water bodies. Hydrological and groundwater modeling would help Lack of consistent, longitudinal, available monitoring forecast variations in groundwater and surface water data hinders the ability to assess the hydrological availability under different aquifer conditions and impacts of climate change. In general, there are too climatic scenarios. few flow-monitoring stations established across South Asian countries to provide the information Modern remote sensing methods for hydrological needed for reliable flow modelling. Similarly, there is data collection can augment, but not replace, in situ little systematic information on groundwater levels, data collection. Remote sensing from aircraft and use and quality across South Asian aquifers, because satellites can provide rapid and comprehensive data of inadequate monitoring, especially of deep aquifers. on surface water distribution and, to a limited extent, The maintenance of hydro-meteorological stations on water quality at large regional scale, in a relatively tends to be neglected especially in remote and high- short period of time and in a cost effective manner. altitude areas or regions prone to political conflicts. The GRACE satellites, for example, now allow the Support for quality control and quality assessment total mass of water over regional areas (including in data collection and analysis is rarely a priority surface and groundwater, and soil moisture) and their and systematic data sharing between institutions is change over time to be monitored and estimated. uncommon. Consequently, hydrological and climatic These data sources can be combined with ground data are often of unknown quality with gaps in the observations to provide a more comprehensive long-term record, and difficult to access because data picture of water distribution, and changes in storage recording is not computerized or because of access and quality. However, analytical and interpretation restrictions. There is also limited capacity for data capacities are often lacking in the poorest countries analysis and forecasting within scientific institutions of the South Asia region to take advantage of these and little appreciation amongst officials and local remote sensing opportunities. Technical skills need groups about how to use scientific information. to be improved and expanded. Water Resources and Climate Knowledge 43 Existing data is not readily available and shared knowledge across the Hindu-Kush-Himalayan across the region. Work under the Informing region (see Box 6.2). There is growing need for Change in the Indus Basin is an example of data improving collaboration in monitoring and collecting sharing that helps make information more widely hydrological, hydrogeological and water quality available (see Box 6.1). ICIMOD’s Regional program information across shared surface and groundwater on Adaptation to Change is another example of a systems to study regional problems and to develop program that is systematically generating and sharing regional solutions. Box 6.1 - Informing Change in the Indus Basin Informing Change in the Indus Basin is a two-year component of the DFID South Asia Water Governance Programme (SAWGP) implemented by IWMI. Its mandate is to deliver over an 18-month period: Knowledge consolidation and provision under an Indus Basin Knowledge Platform (IBKP) hosted and managed at IWMI HQ in Colombo (see www.indusbasin.org); Stronger decision making through mapping patterns of influence within irrigation schemes using tools of social network analysis and supporting upstream decision making through use of a decision support tool; and Facilitating dialogue, at an inter-provincial level on water management and use in Pakistan, at a basin scale through working closely with the Indus Forum under SAWI; and with public information through a media dialogue within and across all four countries sharing the basin. Source: IWMI (http://www.indusbasin.org) Box 6.2 - ICIMOD and Climate Change The International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) is a regional intergovernmental learning and knowledge-sharing center serving the eight regional member countries of the Hindu-Kush-Himalayas – namely Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, China, India, Myanmar, Nepal, and Pakistan. Based in Kathmandu, Nepal, ICIMOD aims to assist mountain people to understand changes including climate change and globalization, adapt to these changes and make the most of new opportunities, while addressing upstream-downstream issues. ICIMOD works by supporting regional transboundary programs through partnership with regional partner institutions, facilitating the exchange of experience, and serving as a regional knowledge hub. ICIMOD runs a Regional Progrm on Adaptation to Change the purpose of which is to enhance resilience and to support adaptation. The program develops adaptation mechanisms and works with partners to promote them, including seeking to capture indigenous knowledge on autonomous adaptation and to contribute to planned adaptation by providing scientific support. In particular, this seeks to promote innovative livelihood improvement and sustainable natural resource management strategies that can ensure continued ecosystem services and promote adaptation. Particular attention is given to the challenges and role of women in adaptation. ICIMOD’s work on the HIMALA project is developing a prototype integrated hydrological model to assess water availability and improve understanding of the contribution of snow and glaciers to the flows of the rivers in the HKH, a critical factor in understanding the parameters for establishing effective water management adaptation strategies. Source: www.icimod.org 44 Water Resources and Climate Knowledge 6.2. Recommendations • Significant investment is needed in the rehabilitation, expansion and upgrading of in-situ climate and hydrological monitoring surface and groundwater networks as well as expanded use of remote sensing platforms for data collection and analysis. In particular, monitoring needs to be expanded in data poor areas such as coastal aquifers and high altitude areas. • Data and hydrological information, including projections based on climate change modeling, need to be shared between institutions, both within a country and between countries. Where necessary, policies, legislation and practice need to be amended to encourage information sharing. • Research is needed into important climatic and hydrological processes such as the spatial and temporal variability in precipitation across river basins under climate change, and connectivity between surface and groundwater in the Indo- Gangetic Basin. • The capacity for evaluating policy choices and water resources development options based on analyses of water and climate data needs to be strengthened in central agencies as well as in local and community organizations. • Risk management approaches (decision tree analysis, robust decision making, stochastic and robust optimization, dynamic adaptive policy pathways, information - gap decision theory) should be employed when making investment decisions because of the high uncertainty associated with the effects of climate change on water resources. Water Resources and Climate Knowledge 45 WATER RESOURCES AND CLIMATE POLICIES AND INSTITUTIONS g o o d r e s o u r c e g ov e r n a n c e w i l l b e k e y to s u c c e s s f u l a da p tat i o n i n t h e wat e r s ec to r . g ov e r n a n c e p r ov i d e s t h e f r a m e w o r k w i t h i n w h i c h wat e r r e s o u r c e s c a n b e p l a n n e d , d e v e lo p e d a n d m a n ag e d s ys t e m at i c a l ly at the lo c a l , basin, s tat e / p r ov i n c e , n at i o n a l and t r a n s b o u n da ry levels. a f u n da m e n ta l r eq u i r e m e n t i s t h e f o r m u l at i o n o f a wat e r p o l i c y t h at e s ta b l i s h e s ov e r - a r c h i n g p r i n c i p l e s a n d g u i d e l i n e s s u c h a s a s s i g n i n g c u s to d i a n s h i p o f wat e r to g ov e r n m e n t s , c l e a r ly d e f i n i n g r o l e s , r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s a n d ac c o u n ta b i l i t i e s f o r g ov e r n m e n t i n s t i t u t i o n s i n vo lv e d i n wat e r m a n ag e m e n t o r u s e , e s ta b l i s h i n g m ec h a n i s m s to w o r k w i t h t h e p r i vat e s ec to r , a n d a n e f f ec t i v e m e t h o d o f c o o r d i n at i n g g ov e r n m e n t ac t i v i t i e s ac r o s s s ec to r s , m a n ag i n g wat e r o n a r i v e r b a s i n o r aq u i f e r l e v e l , r ec o g n i z i n g t h e n e e d f o r e n v i r o n m e n ta l wat e r , a n d e n c o u r ag i n g g e n u i n e c o m m u n i t y pa rt i c i pat i o n i n wat e r d ec i s i o n s . a b a l a n c e d wat e r p o l i c y n e e d s to i n t eg r at e b ot h s u p p ly s i d e a n d d e m a n d m a n ag e m e n t o p t i o n s a n d a l s o r ec o g n i z e d r i v e r s o u t s i d e t h e s ec to r t h at i m pac t wat e r s u p p ly a n d d e m a n d Climate policies should recognize the potential sectors; and (d) recommendations for improved effects of global warming on water resources and water resources governance. Financing climate include measures to promote adaptation to these change adaptation is discussed in a later chapter. effects. These adaptation measures are likely to extend well beyond the water resources sector 7.1. Main Findings and include actions by water-dependent sectors Water resources instruments (policies, legislation, (including agriculture, energy, human settlements, strategies, plans). All governments recognize the tourism and the environment) and so the climate complexities of climate related water resources policies should provide mechanisms to coordinate challenges and are laying the foundations - responses across all these relevant sectors. knowledge, policy, institutions and infrastructure - Institutions need to be identified and empowered for adapting to climate change. Probably the biggest to undertake this coordination and to oversee gap in water instruments is the absence of agreed implementation of adaptation actions. over-arching water policies and legislation in three countries – Nepal, Pakistan (Pakistan has recently This chapter, based on an analysis of water and drafted a new water policy) and Sri Lanka. Without climate related instruments (policies, strategies, a coherent whole-of-government policy response legislation, and plans) for South Asian countries these countries are reliant on sub-sector instruments (Appendix 1), presents findings about: (a) the or the policies of water-related sectors such as adequacy and suitability of the existing water drinking water supply, environment, energy and/or resources policies and other instruments for agriculture. improving water management and thereby adapting to climate change, (b) the recognition within climate IWRM is accepted in the current water and climate change policies of the need for adaptation in the policies of most nations as being the most relevant water sector, and (c) the institutional structure for approach to water management, particularly when ensuring coordination across the various affected growing demand for water is placing the resource 46 Water Resources and Climate Policies and Institutions base under increasing stress. It is also seen as being management and integrate it with surface water well suited to improving water management under management. It is particularly important to break climate change because it is designed to address both the nexus, often assumed, between land ownership the “availability” and the “variability” components of and control of groundwater. the region’s challenge. Most countries recognize the potential impacts of IWRM is designed to manage trade-offs between climate change in their water instruments. Four competing water users as access to water becomes of the seven South Asian countries (Afghanistan, more limited under variable hydrological conditions. Bangladesh, Bhutan, and India) clearly recognize and Moreover, IWRM is an inherently adaptive approach incorporate climate change and its impacts in their that is well suited to increasing variability under water instruments while Pakistan, Nepal and Sri climate change, emphasizing the importance of Lanka mention climate change in their sub-sectoral better information and more responsive institutions instruments. The 2012 Indian Water Policy clearly together with infrastructure investments and recognizes climate change as being one of three key structural and non-structural responses at all levels. pressures on water availability along with population The principles of IWRM are formally adopted in growth and increasing demand, and the Policy has water resources and climate change instruments in a detailed section on adapting to climate change. all South Asian countries except Sri Lanka. However, Nepal does not mention climate change in its 2002 Water Strategy or 2005 Water Plan (apart Whilst IWRM is established in policies across the from the need to study this issue by establishing a region, its practical implementation is limited, Himalayan Climate Change Study Center), although incremental and in its early stages. The region has its new Water Disaster Management Policy 2015 made important advances in the development of clearly includes the potential effects of climate surface and groundwater resources for different change on floods. uses of water (drinking, industry, and irrigation, hydropower) and in building flood control structures. Water rights or entitlements need to be clearly However, there is limited attention to the protection, established in water resources instruments. All conservation and management of rivers, lakes, South Asian countries, with the exception of aquifers and wetlands systems. Pakistan and Sri Lanka, have clarified in their water instruments that water is owned by the people with The water sector remains fragmented. There is the State adopting the role of trustee or custodian. minimal integration between agencies responsible All water extraction requires a permit, although for managing water quantity and water quality, most countries provide exemptions for basic human responsible for surface water and groundwater, needs and sometimes other traditional uses. Permits or between and with different water using sectors are also required for discharge of pollutants to (e.g., agriculture, energy, industry, rural, urban or waterways and, in cases such as Bangladesh’s Water environment). Box 7.1 also highlights the policies Act, for diverting or impeding flows thus asserting and actions outside the water sector that can government authority over embankments and other profoundly impact the water sector. structures erected by land owners for flood control. Of course, all countries, including Pakistan and Existing water policies undervalue groundwater. Sri Lanka, have long-established mechanisms for Water policies remain biased towards surface water, assigning water rights and for sharing water but this and allocate the bulk of the budget for surface assertion of public ownership clarifies the right of water infrastructure with groundwater management governments to implement actions to help adapt to receiving much smaller share of the funding. The climate change, such as controlling over-abstraction, 2011 Indian draft Model Bill for the Conservation, introducing artificial recharge and conjunctive use Protection and Regulation of provides an example of and having the mandate to re-allocate water during the types of actions that can improve groundwater extreme droughts and national crisis. Water Resources and Climate Policies and Institutions 47 Formal mechanism for allocating water. As demand (energy) subsidies for farmers that encourage for water increases due to growing population and excessive agricultural water use (and groundwater economic development and competition over water depletion). India calls for the removal of these and tensions and conflicts between and among subsidies in its 2012 National Water Policy and in sectors, states and provinces emerge, the need for its water-related climate change document (the formal mechanisms for allocating water become National Water Mission). However, removing these more important to ensure equitable, efficient and subsidies requires cooperation between the water, sustainable use of water. energy and agricultural sectors. Public education and participation programs can also help institute This clarification about public ownership of demand management by building awareness of the and authority over water resources applies to need to reduce unnecessary water use and build both surface and groundwater in Afghanistan, public ownership of the issue. Bangladesh, Bhutan, India and Nepal. In some countries, traditional beliefs that groundwater is the Most countries (Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, property of the owner of the overlying land persist, and Pakistan) recognize the need for allocating and is sometimes supported by colonial era common water for the environment but in practice it is rarely law principles. In India, private ownership of water allocated systematically. These environmental flow is incorporated in the Constitution. This contributes provisions are customized for the needs of each to overuse of what is, in reality, a common pool country - Bangladesh and Pakistan place emphasis resource. on the provision of environmental water to maintain productive delta ecosystems and to prevent saltwater Demand side management can be an effective, intrusion, while Nepal identifies the need to maintain if under-utilized, tool for water allocation under ecosystems downstream of dams. Even though conditions of scarcity. Demand management is concerns over environmental flows are growing, generally endorsed in water instruments across South for example, in hydropower developments in India, Asia although the specific mechanisms by which water allocation between provinces in Pakistan and demand will be controlled are not always spelt out (e.g. water resources development in Sri Lanka, examples Afghanistan’s Water Sector Strategy has the explicit of systematically conducting environmental flow intention of elevating demand-side management to assessments to establish environmental flow an equal status with supply augmentation, but does requirements are the exception not the rule. not provide details). However, India has a thorough description of its intentions to accelerate demand Climate Change policies, strategies, plans, NAPAs management by treating water as an economic good and NDCs. All countries have either policies or plans and encouraging states to introduce water regulators for responding to climate change, including five who can set water tariffs. The government sees (Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal, Sri Lanka) demand management as a mechanism to help that have plans and programs specifically focused combat the impacts of climate change and calls for on adaptation. All countries submitted Intended alignment with compatible agricultural strategies. Nationally Determined Contribution (INDCs) reports to the COP21 meeting in Paris in 2015. The INDC Establishing water prices that reflect the true cost reports focus on mitigation actions but most also of water is one of the important means for reducing include adaptation activities. However, overall water demand. Bangladesh, India and Pakistan progress towards the development of an adaptation propose pricing reforms in their water instruments. capacity in the water sector to date is limited and However, there are few practical attempts to bring is “a work in progress.” A substantial amount of about these reforms because of public opposition to effort and investment is needed to develop effective charging for water which is often seen as a free good adaptation frameworks for the water sector. and because of the perceived impacts on the poor. Demand can also be reduced by removing perverse 48 Water Resources and Climate Policies and Institutions All countries mainstream climate adaptation into All countries with their many large and small their respective national development programs. In transboundary rivers can benefit from taking a Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri regional approach to climate change adaptation Lanka climate adaptation programs form an integral (Box 7.1). Water shortages could intensify existing part of development objectives to enhance food tensions and create new conflicts over sharing of security and reduce poverty, involving water related inter-state rivers within a country or transboundary sectors. Climate adaptation programs are also closely rivers between countries. Many countries recognize linked with risk prevention and disaster management this in their climate change documents. For example, in Bangladesh, Bhutan, Pakistan and Sri Lanka, as the Pakistan government in its Climate Policy well as with environmental issues (problems of offers to explore joint watershed management of desertification, in particular) in Afghanistan. transboundary basins with neighbouring countries. Box 7.1 - Regional cooperation is a critical element in adaptation With 54 rivers shared between India and Bangladesh alone, the South Asian landscape is characterised by a highly-interconnected network of rivers and aquifers, except for Sri Lanka. These shared rivers and aquifers and the ‘third pole’ ice and snow mass in the Himalayas support the livelihoods of 400 million people across the Indo-Gangetic and Brahmaputra basins in Nepal, India and Bangladesh alone. Links between upstream glaciers and this network of transboundary rivers and aquifers highlights the limitations of adaptive action confined to national boundaries, especially in the case of lower riparian states, and underscores the need for regional cooperation. This is best illustrated by Bangladesh which not only depends on transboundary flows for 97% of its surface water but is also at risk from regular flooding from unregulated and uncontrolled river flows. Cooperation amongst riparian countries however is limited, with agreements only for a few specific rivers, many of which pre-date full recognition of the risks posed by climate change. The focus on water sharing thus appears rather narrow when the need today is for cooperation along a broader front of water management needs and adaptive actions. The existing power asymmetries in economic and political systems, and across geographies and country priorities pose a significant challenge to achieving such cooperation. Central to these dynamics is India. Given its economic and political influence, and geographical positioning as a midstream country, India will continue to play a central role in shaping and reshaping governance structures and processes on regional cooperation. While regional political systems such as the South Asian Association for Regional Co-operation (SAARC) and the South Asia Co-operative Environment Programme (SACEP) exist, they have been slow to lead region-wide adaptation initiatives, leaving no clear pathway for scaling existing bilateral approaches at a truly regional level. Source: Suhardiman et al (2017) Efforts to promote regional adaptation will have Regional Cooperation (SAARC) has initiated many to take into account the existing asymmetries in regional cooperation agreements, some directly on economic and political power, geography, resource climate change. Of these, the Dhaka Declaration endowments, skill, institutional capacities and and SAARC Action Plan on Climate Change (2008), country priorities. Central to these dynamics and the Thimphu Statement on Climate Change is India which, with its economic and political (2010) are two important milestones. The Thimphu influence and geographic location at the center of Statement recognizes that climate change will require the region, could play a key role in future regional a regional response. The South Asia Groundwater cooperation for climate adaptation. To date, India Forum held in Jaipur (India) in June 2016 provided has taken a bilateral approach to developing formal an important platform to share emerging research cooperation. The South Asian Association for findings on the storage and priority threats related Water Resources and Climate Policies and Institutions 49 to the Indo-Gangetic Basin aquifers, knowledge on have weak mandates. Consequently, regulations critical aspects of groundwater use and governance for water allocation, pollution control and land use in general, including the opportunities for building planning are only weakly implemented across South drought and climate resilience. Asia. Addressing these regulatory problems will be important in building climate change adaptation Water resources and climate change institutions. capacity. A key institutional feature of IWRM, coordination across water dependent sectors is recognized as A centralized approach to climate adaptation is important in the water instruments of all countries. common across South Asia. One or more government All countries have established institutions to agencies are charged with leading, preparing and coordinate water management across relevant formulating climate adaptation programs at the sectors although the composition and authority national level. This is most evident in India, where the of these bodies varies considerably. Approaches national response around climate change emerged vary from Afghanistan’s Supreme Council on Water through the Prime Minister’s Office, with the creation Affairs Management, chaired by the First Vice- of the Prime Minister’s Council on Climate Change President and containing all relevant Ministers, to (PMCCC) in 2007. Similarly, the Government of Nepal India’s long-established National Water Resources (GoN) formed the Climate Change Council in 2009 Council, chaired by the Prime Minister, and Nepal’s as the national coordinating body to ensure effective Water and Energy Commission which has limited implementation of climate adaptation policies. authority and the role of which is not well recognized Though Nepal has also formulated its Local Action by some sector ministries (Suhardiman et al. 2015). Plans for Adaptation (LAPA), in practice, adaptation planning through NAPA continues to dominate India has had for a long time separate surface and LAPA. Pakistan too has begun to take initiatives groundwater organizations (the Central Water for employing LAPAs. A centralized approach to Commission and the Central Ground Water Board); climate adaptation does not automatically result in this has encouraged a lack of coordination and good coordination or accommodate the inclusion of hampered attempts to manage water resources as a local coping strategies. In Nepal, the government whole. A recent review has recommended that the established a Multi-stakeholder Climate Change functions of these organizations be combined into Initiatives Coordination Committee (MCCICC) in a National Water Commission which would also 2009, and a National Climate Change and Knowledge promote other IWRM principles such as participation Management Centre (NCCKMC) in 2010. While by water users and river basin water allocation MCCICC has a diverse membership, it remains planning.8 a nationally-centered institution, with very little connection to local communities. Similarly, while Separation of regulatory and operational functions, NCCKMC works towards a knowledge platform, it is is not widely recognized or implemented under unclear how local communities could access such a South Asian water policies. Regulatory bodies platform. are required to impartially oversee the allocation and operational management of water according Climate adaptation implementation agencies to legislation and regulations. There are serious need to address institutional ineffectiveness and potential and actual conflicts of interest when weak cross-sectoral integration and collaboration. regulatory and operational responsibilities are Driven by global climate policy discussions, national gathered within the same Ministry. In general, where governments have appointed relevant sector water resources regulatory agencies exist they tend ministries (e.g., Ministry of Science Technology and to be resourced poorly, inadequately staffed and Environment in Nepal, Ministry of Environment 8 http://www.livemint.com/Politics/Me6nyWGcM9xBkz4x9bbBIN/India-needs-National-Water-Commission-to-deal-with-new- chall.html. Also interview in The Hindu August 19, 2016. 50 Water Resources and Climate Policies and Institutions and Forests in Bangladesh) or formed new inter- either through the formation of inter-ministerial ministerial bodies to lead program implementation, coordinating bodies, or through assigning the as an ‘ad hoc’ response (Dubash and Joseph, 2016) to responsibility to tackle climate related issue to institutionalization. In practice, while the institutional specific sector ministries at different scales. However, structures for climate adaptation are in place, more the climate change instruments, while detailing needs to be done to improve the overall performance many aspects of water management, pay little and institutional effectiveness of these bodies, both attention to either the need for regulating water use at ministerial and inter-ministerial levels. National or cross-sectoral coordination of water dependent coordination bodies (e.g. Climate Cells) struggle to institutions. The climate change inter-ministerial cope with entrenched sectoral approaches, and lack coordination bodies often do not function well, are of capacity to generate cross-sector collaboration. constrained by current institutional set ups and lack of capacity, both in terms of budget and staffing. Harmonization between climate change and water Table 7.1 provides an overview of the typology of resources institutions is essential for effective institutional approaches in climate adaptation across adaptation. South Asian governments have created the region, and their strengths and weaknesses. institutions to deal with climate change issues, Table 7.1 - Typology of institutional approaches in climate adaptation Type of institutional Study Strengths Weaknesses framework countries Cross-sectoral • Provides the institutional set up • Unable to overcome the problem of • Afghanistan, collaboration through for holistic program development, sectoral fragmentation Bhutan the establishment of planning and implementation • Malfunctioning due to lack of a an inter-ministerial • Addresses climate adaptation more decision-making authority to direct coordinating body effectively (e.g., less overlapping and enforce sectoral ministries’ between various government conduct agencies) Combined inter- • Facilitates the formation of • Requires a lot of fine-tuning (across • Bangladesh, ministerial coordinating networks for cross-sectoral scales) to form solid, strategic India, Nepal, body with sectoral collaborations alliances between relevant bodies Pakistan leadership • Facilitates the development of • Requires clear division of tasks and adaptive institutional frameworks, responsibilities based on how relevant bodies perceive and negotiate their roles and interface Sectoral leadership • Direct access to decision-making • Sectoral approach to climate • Sri Lanka authority to plan, direct and adaptation may not be sufficient to implement climate adaptation address widespread, cross-sectoral implications of climate change Government revenue • Continuous channeling of funds • Requires more time and effort for • Bangladesh, and project fund as could increase the program’s fine-tuning in terms of financial India main financial source sustainability mechanisms selected, division of tasks, activities selected, etc. • Requires strong commitment from both the government and international donors • Unclear prioritization of climate adaptation measures, since they are often implied in the government’s national development programs Project fund as main • Direct implementation of climate • Aid dependency often results in • Afghanistan, financial source adaptation activities through the program’s unsustainability (ends Bhutan, various government agencies and after funds are fully allocated) Nepal, Sri NGOs • Parallel projects may not be Lanka • Effective implementation of climate effective to address cross-sectoral adaptation through the project implications of climate change management unit Water Resources and Climate Policies and Institutions 51 7.2. Recommendations • Regional approaches for promoting opportunities for greater sharing of knowledge and cooperation • Nepal and Sri Lanka could benefit from (e.g., on flood early warning, cost effective developing whole-of-government water approaches for dealing with arsenic in water resources policies that provide comprehensive supply and measures for preventing saltwater guidance about water development, planning intrusion in coastal aquifers) and for mediation (in and management. Such policy development water sharing issues) is critical for transboundary would only be successful if it was country-driven cooperation towards more holistic adaptation and took account of lessons learnt from previous measures in South Asia. attempts to introduce water policies (Ariyabandu 2008). • Water resources institutions need to be fully engaged in climate change coordination • Responsibilities for water resources regulation arrangements in all countries. and operations need to be separated and placed in different institutions, preferably under • Local adaptation needs to be encouraged in all different Ministries. countries, with local communities being given central support but empowered to take the lead • Water rights, as defined in policies, should be in adaptation activities. introduced to water users through education programs to build up an understanding that water is a common pool resource needing communal management. • More effort should be placed on demand management, including establishing prices that reflect actual water provision costs, to delay the need for expensive supply side investments. This includes removal of electricity subsidies that encourage excessive groundwater extraction. • More attention should be paid to improving groundwater management, including controls over excessive groundwater use, avoidance of groundwater pollution and protection of recharge areas. • While improved water management is, intrinsically, an adaptation response to climate change, it would be beneficial if water managers had a better appreciation of the potential impacts of climate change and worked within a risk- based adaptation framework that allowed them to assess whether these impacts were likely to be significant or not given the uncertainties associated with climate change projections. • Adaptation should be included in future water resources development planning using a risk- based approach. 52 Water Resources and Climate Policies and Institutions WAT ER RES O U R C ES I NF RASTRUCTUR E infrastructure – i n c lu d i n g da m s , w e i r s a n d b a r r ag e s , f lo o d c o n t r o l s t r u c t u r e s , a n d i n t e r - basin transfers – p l ays a n e s s e n t i a l r o l e i n t h e p r ov i s i o n o f wat e r s u p p l i e s , i n t h e r eg u l at i o n o f r i v e r f lo w s a n d i n m i t i g at i n g t h e i m pac t s o f e x t r e m e f lo w s . s i n g l e a n d m u lt i p u r p o s e da m s c a n b e u s e d to r eg u l at e r i v e r f lo w s , s to r e wat e r f o r i r r i g at i o n , h y d r o p o w e r , i n d u s t ry a n d d o m e s t i c c o n s u m p t i o n , c o n t r o l f lo o d f lo w s a n d m a n ag e va r i a b i l i t y , t h e r e by c o n t r i b u t i n g to a da p tat i o n e f f o rt s . h av i n g s u f f i c i e n t wat e r s to r ag e w i l l b ec o m e i n c r e a s i n g ly i m p o rta n t a s g r e at e r r a i n fa l l va r i a b i l i t y a n d r e d u c t i o n o f i c e a n d s n o w (as a r e s u lt o f c l i m at e c h a n g e ) e m e r g e a n d i n c r e a s e s t r e a m f lo w va r i a b i l i t y . reducing sediment loa d s can p r o lo n g the life of existing s to r ag e r e s e rvo i r s ( a n n a n da l e e t a l 2016 ; pa l m i e r i e t a l 2003 ). n e v e rt h e l e s s , e v e n w i t h i m p r ov e d wat e r u s e e f f i c i e n c i e s a n d r e d u c e d s e d i m e n t loa d s , i n c r e a s e d s to r ag e ( i n c lu d i n g n at u r a l s to r ag e s u c h a s aq u i f e r s a n d s o i l m o i s t u r e ) w i l l b e r eq u i r e d to c o p e w i t h i n c r e a s e d va r i a b i l i t y i n p r ec i p i tat i o n , a s w e l l a s r e d u c e d p r ec i p i tat i o n a n d s n o w / i c e m e lt i n s o m e a r e a s Dams can also be designed to reduce flood risk All infrastructure measures can have deleterious while embankments and levees can protect critical effects on downstream users and communities and areas from flood damage as part of more integrated need to be designed and operated in accordance responses that include non-structural measures (e.g. with national social and environmental requirements. land use planning, zoning, education, early warning Dams, weirs and embankments can alter the patterns systems and increased use of flood insurance). Inter- of river flow so that they provide too little or too much basin transfers can help to move water from regions water to downstream ecosystems and communities, of relative water abundance to those where water thereby lessening their ability to adapt to climate is scarce. However, they require detailed technical change. Infrastructure developments that interrupt studies, economic analyses, negotiations and benefit flows therefore need to be operated according to sharing before they can be implemented. environmental flow plans that minimize downstream disruption. Inter-basin transfers can impact both the Aquifers provides a source of water that helps exporting areas (e.g., water sources) and receiving meet increased variability and existing groundwater areas (e.g., water bodies or storage structures). supply, which can be augmented through artificial recharge (managed aquifer recharge MAR). An important caveat is that additional infrastructure Smaller-scale infrastructure such as household and can only provide a buffer against increasing community water tanks and rainwater harvesting variability if it is constructed and operated according can also help provide water during droughts. to design rules that take account of climate change. Aquifers and community water sources are Thus, new infrastructure, such as hydropower discussed in the next chapter. dams, needs to be accompanied by a review of design criteria and operational rules to ensure that it is adaptive to climate change – including coping with future extremes. Water Resources Infrastructure 53 8.1. Main Findings Programme, Sri Lanka’s largest river basin development for irrigation development, hydropower Dams and storages. Infrastructure expansion and production and flood control, represents an example rehabilitation will be needed to adapt to climate of some of the pioneering work on multipurpose change. All countries, except Bangladesh, have river basin development in South Asia. plans to develop additional water storage. New water storage is recognized as being essential for Both existing and new infrastructure may need to development in Nepal, Pakistan and Bhutan. The be operated taking account of climate change and need for additional water storage will be greatest other concurrent environmental changes including in arid and semi-arid areas and where groundwater changing land-use. Infrastructure design standards is depleted and worsening in quality (e.g., in the may need to be revised to take account of climate Lower Indus Basin) and where there may be reduced change, and dam operating rules will need to storage in glaciers and snow cover as a result of incorporate any changes in extreme flows. However, upstream climate change impacts. This means not not all storage investments will require a detailed only constructing more storage but also reducing analysis of climate change impacts – other factors sediment loads to prolong the life of existing storage may have greater influence on design decisions. A by managing catchments in order to reduce sediment detailed study of climate change impacts on Nepal’s loads, manage sediments within reservoirs, and hydroelectric power production concluded that remove sediments from reservoirs (Annandale et al smaller run-of-river projects are more likely to be 2016; Palmieri et al 2003). affected by climate change, that climate change induced hazards (increased sediment loads, extreme Existing storage can be operated more efficiently to floods, geohazards) are the most important additional postpone major investments in new infrastructure. risk, and that, while climate change is important, it is Methods include making greater use of weather outweighed by other issues and uncertainties (World and climate forecasts, integrating operations within Bank 2014). river basins, conjunctive use of surface storage and groundwater systems, de-silting of reservoirs and Given the uncertainties from climate modelling and management of erosion within catchments, and projections of changes in hydrological parameters, a technical improvements in control systems and off- risk-based management approach is recommended takes. for decision making. Box 8.1 describes the Decision Tree Approach, a method funded by the World Many South Asian dams are old and need to be Bank for determining whether climate change is an assessed for safety. Dam safety inspections will important factor in designing infrastructure and its become more important with changing hydrology application in hydropower planning in Nepal. under climate change. The failure of the Oroville Dam emergency spillway in California in February 2017 (following excessive rains after 5 years of drought) caused the evacuation of 180,000 people, illustrating the risks to major infrastructure of changing hydrological conditions. There is a shift from single purpose to multipurpose dams. The Indian Water Mission climate change document sees this shift as providing more opportunity to respond to increased risk of flood as a result of climate change in addition to meeting growing water needs. The Mahaweli Development 54 Water Resources Infrastructure Box 8.1 - The Decision Tree Approach and application to Upper Arun Hydropower project Undertaking an analysis of climate change impacts on water resources infrastructure is usually expensive and potentially delays project commencement. The Decision-Tree Approach (Ray and Brown, 2015) provides a method for determining whether climate change is an important factor in designing infrastructure – and if not, then saving considerable time and expense. The method was applied to the Upper Arun Hydropower Project in eastern Nepal and to the overall hydropower portfolio in the Koshi Basin (Karki et al., 2016). The analysis aimed to assess how climate change (i.e. ice- and snow-melt fed river inflow modified by changes in temperature and rainfall) and other variables (including supplied hydropower price and sediment load) might affect the project’s optimal design capacity. Different combinations of planned hydropower capacity were also tested at the basin level. Performance metrics include the economic value of the project and the total and dry season hydropower production. The robustness of the project was tested by simulating various climate scenarios using a hydrological model including a glacier component and a water system model that translates water availability into hydropower production. Results indicate that the original design of 335 MW was not able to exploit the predicted increase in flows during the wet season. A design capacity of 1,000 MW emerged as an attractive alternative, although it was more sensitive to increases in capital costs and electricity prices. Input variables were selected in consultation with the Nepal Electricity Authority and relevant literature to ensure that their ranges of values are realistic. Historical records of temperature and precipitation were adjusted with the intention of going far beyond the ranges covered by the IPCC projections to demonstrate the project resilience to climate change. The analysis went on to the later phases of the Decision Tree, even after climate risks were shown in Phase 2 to be low, because the investors and stakeholders wanted to know if a larger design size might capitalize on the opportunities for hydropower generation presented by more favorable conditions. The stakeholder-trusted model was used to simulate the basin system over a 30-year period, given various options for infrastructure development and operating rules. The model was optimized to identify a small set of the highest-performing portfolios (the most efficient and robust combinations of options). Stakeholder-preferred investment bundles were then stress- tested in detail to identify any vulnerabilities, including institutional and financial variables. Ultimately, this approach aims to help decision makers identify which investments can achieve robust outcomes and appropriately balance the system’s benefits. When basins have complex interdependencies and when the various possible interventions are contested, such system-level trade-off analysis can help bring clarity and consensus (Geressu and Harou, 2015; Karki et al., 2016). The Decision Tree framework provides a way of evaluating across various climate models without having to rely on just one climate projection. Source: Ray and Brown (2015) Flood protection infrastructure. All countries flood protection infrastructure against the expected include infrastructure protection against floods in impacts of climate change, and India’s National their water instruments, although the extent and Water Policy and Water Framework Bill require that detail of coverage varies considerably. Afghanistan, embankments and other flood infrastructure be Bhutan and Sri Lanka make only passing mention designed to take account of climate change. Nepal of infrastructure for flood protection in their water has a specific Water Induced Disaster Management instruments; Nepal and Bhutan have taken a risk Policy 2015 that includes the need for detention reduction approach for flood protection, requiring basins and river training works (embankments), and flood zoning, and hazard mapping and early warning classifies flood-affected areas into different zones systems for GLOFs; while Bangladesh’s Coastal and recommends different land uses for these zones. Zone Policy 2005 specifically links the need for Water Resources Infrastructure 55 There is a paradigm shift in addressing floods from negotiations and agreements on benefit sharing flood control and protection to flood preparation and environmental safeguards before they can and management. Most of the water instruments be implemented. India has an ambitious National across South Asia couple structural measures (i.e., River Linking Plan that intends to transfer surplus infrastructure such as embankments) with non- waters from the Himalayan rivers to more deficient structural measures to protect against floods. peninsular rivers. In the case of India, the National Water Policy 2012 advocates an integrated approach ranging 8.2. Recommendations from early warning systems and flood forecasting • Prolong life of reservoirs by managing catchments to flood preparedness and flood protection to to reduce sediment loads above reservoirs, disaster recovery. Non-structural measures include particularly above hydropower dams. rehabilitation of natural drainage systems, changes in reservoir operating procedures and community • Undertake safety inspections for ageing dams flood planning. and other critical infrastructure. Flood protection infrastructure may need to be • Incorporate climate change into design of storage rehabilitated and upgraded. Extreme events, reservoirs using a risk-based approach such as including floods, are likely to increase in severity Decision Tree Analysis under climate change. While non-structural • Modify reservoir operating rules to incorporate measures (including land use zoning, maintaining climate change where this is likely to be a flood dispersal channels and early warning systems) significant influence are often more cost-effective than investing in new infrastructure, it is still often necessary to • Continue to couple structural measures against protect high-value and vulnerable areas with floods with non-structural actions such as embankments and other infrastructure. However, better forecasting of floods, floodplain mapping these investments should be subject to economic and zoning, and pre-emptive planning, and evaluations that incorporate the likely effects rehabilitation of natural drainage systems. Flood of climate change and the use of non-structural insurance may be a worthwhile option in some measures to adapt to increased flood risks. circumstances. Inter-basin transfers. There are few mentions of inter- basin transfers in South Asia’s water instruments. Inter-basin transfers have been proposed in some South Asian countries (e.g. the Sutlej-Yamuna link between the Indus and Ganges basins within India) to move water from regions of relative water abundance to those where water is scarce. Sri Lanka’s National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy proposes inter- basin transfers, but the National Water Use Master Plan has concluded that inter-basin transfers are a long-term option and could be contentious because of resettlement issues. Nepal’s Water Resources Plan proposes that irrigation development should be integrated with multipurpose water storage projects and inter-basin transfers to reduce the potential impacts of climate change. However, these water transfers are contentious and require detailed 56 Water Resources Infrastructure WAT ER RES O U R C ES P L A N NI NG A ND M ANA GE M E NT g o o d wat e r r e s o u r c e s p l a n n i n g a n d m a n ag e m e n t c a n h e l p to s ys t e m at i c a l ly p l a n f o r a n d m a k e b e t t e r u s e o f e x i s t i n g a n d f u t u r e wat e r s u p p l i e s i n t h e fac e o f i n c r e a s e d va r i a b i l i t y a n d , i n s o m e p l ac e s , r e d u c e d wat e r ava i l a b i l i t y a s a r e s u lt o f c l i m at e c h a n g e . i n t h i s c h a p t e r w e p r e s e n t t h e findings on: (a) wat e r u s e p l a n s f o r s ys t e m at i c a l ly a l lo c at i n g s u r fac e a n d g r o u n d wat e r a m o n g competing uses; ( b ) m a n ag i n g wat e r s h o rtag e s t h r o u g h a va r i e t y o f m e t h o d s i n c lu d i n g : ( i ) au g m e n t i n g s u p p ly ( d e a lt w i t h i n p r e v i o u s c h a p t e r ), ( i i ) i n t r o d u c i n g wat e r u s e e f f i c i e n c y m e a s u r e s , ( i i i ) c o n t r o l l i n g d e m a n d t h r o u g h p r i c i n g , ( i v ) c o n j u n c t i v e ly u s i n g s u r fac e a n d g r o u n d wat e r w h e r e p o s s i b l e , ( v ) r ec yc l i n g a n d r e u s i n g wat e r , a n d ( v i i ) p u b l i c e d u c at i o n ( i n c lu d e d i n n e x t c h a p t e r ); ( c ) p r ot ec t i n g wat e r q ua l i t y to b ot h i n c r e a s e t h e u s a b i l i t y o f wat e r a n d to p r ot ec t p u b l i c h e a lt h a n d the environment; and (d) m a n ag i n g g r o u n d wat e r b ec au s e o f i t s i m p o rta n c e f o r m a n ag i n g c l i m at e change, and (e) m a n ag i n g f lo o d s a n d d r o u g h t s t h r o u g h b ot h s t r u c t u r a l m e a s u r e s (discussed in p r e v i o u s c h a p t e r ) a n d n o n - s t r u c t u r a l m e a s u r e s s u c h a s p r e pa r ato ry p l a n n i n g , l a n d u s e c o n t r o l s , e a r ly wa r n i n g s ys t e m s a n d a s s i s t i n g lo c a l c o m m u n i t i e s i m p l e m e n t lo c a l s o lu t i o n s 9.1. Main Findings not include basin-level water management in its water instruments, presumably because the Indus Water Resources Planning. Afghanistan, Bhutan, River Basin is already the focus of its management India, and Nepal have adopted basin-level water attention. There are Sri Lankan agencies (primarily resources planning and management in their water the Irrigation Department and the Mahaweli resources instruments but actual implementation is Authority) responsible for river basin development limited and ad hoc. The functions of Basin authorities for hydropower generation and irrigation in Sri in these countries are generally similar– developing Lanka, but these do not undertake the planning water allocation plans with participation from water and management functions of river basin agencies users (sometimes devolving responsibility to the sub- envisaged in the IWRM model and there are clear basin level), issuing water use permits taking account of conflicts of interest with the Irrigation Ministry being water availability, monitoring water use and enforcing both the river basin manager and the major water action if there are breaches of water use permits. In user in most basins. some countries, basin authorities also have water infrastructure development responsibilities. Water planning should assess whether climate change is likely to impact on both water availability Bangladesh, in its Water Policy 1999, has developed and water demand during the life of the plan. a national water management plan (2001) that However, India is the only country that specifically recognizes different geographic areas of the country, requires that basin-level plans take account of rather than basin-level plans. Bangladesh agrees climate change in its water instruments. Afghanistan, in principle with basin planning but points out while it does not require that climate change be that it means greater cooperative management of incorporated into basin plans, does require that the Ganges River basin as over 95% of its inflows climate change be included in the national water originate outside its jurisdiction. Pakistan does resources development plan with which the basin Water Resources Planning and Management 57 plans need to be consistent. Box 9.1 is an example integrated river basin development and management of how climate change analysis was systematically plan in Tanzania. incorporated in the preparation of the Rufiji Basin Box 9.1 - The Rufiji Basin Plan, Tanzania The Rufiji River basin, covering 20% of Tanzania, is vital to the country’s economic development. It provides over 80% of the country’s hydropower capacity, contributes 15-18% of GDP through agriculture, and contains the country’s largest national park – a major tourist attraction. The catchment’s water is already heavily committed with water use permits representing 61% of annual average water supply in 2015 and water use projected to reach 82% of water availability in 2035. The catchment’s wetlands, including the Great Ruaha National Park, have experienced severe water shortages because of upstream irrigation areas, with wetland areas contracting from 180 km2 in 1990 to 120 km2 in 2016. Power generation has also been affected by upstream irrigation abstractions, with frequent load shedding during the dry season. Sectoral plans for expansion of irrigation areas and development of further hydropower stations are unsustainable at present rates of water use. Climate change will exacerbate the situation with temperatures projected to rise by 1.5-3.9C by 2097, potential evapo-transpiration will increase by 7-11%, while annual precipitation will increase by 3-5% in the wet season and decrease by 11-21% in the dry season. Proposed increases in water use combined with the effects of climate change could see annual runoff decrease by about 60%. The Rufiji Integrated Water Resource Management and Development Plan is based on a detailed hydrological and climatological study that incorporates the potential effects of climate change on water availability and irrigation water demand. The Plan proposes a wide variety of actions across five key areas – social development, environment, economic development, disaster management, and water governance. The key to meeting development plans is to make irrigation water use more efficient through technical improvements together with stricter regulation. With these improvements, a new hydropower dam can be developed and wetlands can be restored while providing minimum environmental flows to the National Park. Source: Georgakakos 2016 Water use efficiency. Most countries see improved There is also considerable scope for water-efficient technical ways of increasing water-use efficiencies technologies in urban water supply systems. Both as the primary response to the threat of more Pakistan, through its Drinking Water Policy 2009, frequent and more severe droughts due to climate and Sri Lanka, through its National Drinking Water change. Such measures to improve the efficiency Policy, propose technical means to reduce urban of irrigation, urban and other water uses are water wastage such as replacing old pipes, detecting widely included in water instruments. Techniques illegal connections, using water saving plumbing, include drip and sprinkler irrigation and better crop and replacing common outlets with individual management and are present in the water resources connections (Fan 2015). Markandya et al (2017) and irrigation instruments of most South Asian have undertaken a preliminary assessment of the countries. In Pakistan, there is considerable scope investments needed to achieve different levels of for improving water use efficiencies, not only to improvement in water-use efficiency in South Asian reduce demand on water sources but also to halt countries. A 10% improvement in India requires an salinization and loss of useable groundwater. The investment of $27 per ha, they calculate, while the Pakistan Water Sector Strategy estimates that there same level of improvement in Sri Lanka requires a is the potential to save 5.8 BCM annually by 2025 $41 per ha investment. through increasing irrigation efficiency from current efficiency levels of 40%-45%. 58 Water Resources Planning and Management Conjunctive use and management of surface and and regulatory capacity is improved across South groundwater. Conjunctive use is widely proposed Asia. Water quality guidelines and regulations are in South Asia government instruments to augment essential for water recycling and reuse, especially water supply in areas of water shortage. Foster where treated wastewater is the water source. in Shah and Lele (2011) believes that conjunctive Technical guidelines and coordination between use of surface and groundwater, especially by surface and groundwater managers are also increasing groundwater use in upstream areas and important for conjunctive use. improving surface water availability downstream, is of central importance in the Indo-Gangetic Plain and Protecting water quality. Although country in Pakistan’s Punjab. Given the leakiness of many policies and legislation focus primarily on protecting irrigation canals, there are considerable opportunities surface water quality, there are also protections to introduce deliberately-managed conjunctive use for groundwater quality in the instruments of in Pakistan, India and Bangladesh. Conjunctive Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. use is included in the Water Plan and the Irrigation The Indian Water Policy points out that groundwater Policy of Nepal, while Bangladesh’s National Water quality requires special attention because of the Policy 1999 and Water Management Plan 2001 both difficulty of remediating groundwater once it is encourage conjunctive use. India’s Water Policy polluted. India’s Model Bill for the Conservation, calls for investigations into the effectiveness of Protection and Regulation of Groundwater has the conjunctive use while Pakistan has commissioned a prevention of groundwater pollution and degradation specific study into opportunities for conjunctive use as one of its objectives. (Associated Consulting Engineers et al 2011) that South Asian water resources instruments recognize identified areas where conjunctive management of the need to prevent contamination of surface surface and groundwater in irrigation areas could be waters from erosion, landslides and consequent employed by regularizing and controlling the current sedimentation. Not surprisingly, Bhutan and Nepal excessive leakage of surface water into groundwater have detailed prescriptions for controlling erosion systems, while maintaining water quality. and landslides in their instruments. In Bhutan, the Reuse and recycling. Reuse and recycling of treated National Environment Commission can declare urban and industrial wastewater and irrigation return threatened water sources as Water Management flows are also widely proposed in water instruments. Areas where special controls can be applied, while India’s Water Policy calls for wastewater reuse and the National Environment Strategy advocates its Water Mission specifically proposes effluent maintenance of watersheds to reduce erosion reuse onto crops as a mechanism to help combat and sediment loads. In Nepal, the Water-Induced the likely effects of climate change. India also has Disasters Management Policy calls for catchment subsidies for industrial recycling and reuse as well conservation works to prevent landslides and river as recycling and reuse of irrigation drainage waters corridor tree plantings and inclusion of environmental in its National Water Policy. Nepal and Bhutan conservation as part of watershed conservation, while do not face water shortages and do not propose the National Water Plan proposes an environmental implementation of reuse and recycling in their action plan to rehabilitate degraded watersheds to Water Plan and Policy, although Bhutan proposes to reduce erosion and the danger of landslides. The study these approaches. Bangladesh wants financial Indian National Water Policy recognizes that climate incentives for water reuse and conservation, while change is likely to make erosion worse because of Pakistan and Sri Lanka advocate reuse in their increased rainfall intensity. Drinking water policies. Landslides and sedimentation from catchment Recycling and reuse of effluent carries considerable erosion are threats to hydropower systems, health risks and pose a serious public health hazard particularly in Nepal and Bhutan, because of unless the current weak water quality management abrasion in turbines. Nepal is undertaking a project Water Resources Planning and Management 59 to develop methods for protecting hydropower Climate change will affect both the supply and the plants from incrased sedimentation risk arising from demand for groundwater. In addition to affecting the climate change. supply of groundwater in direct and indirect ways, climate change is also likely to affect the demand Managing groundwater decline and deteriorating for groundwater for irrigation because of increased quality. Groundwater levels and quality are already temperatures and evapo-transpiration. However, the major issues in Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and Sri actual impacts on groundwater are complex and have Lanka. Both groundwater quantity and quality are received little attention in the scientific literature or likely to deteriorate further under climate change in policy compared to surface water. Attempts to unless remedial actions are taken. Bangladesh, raise the profile of groundwater management (e.g. Bhutan, India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka all have India’s draft Groundwater Bill) have had little impact special provisions in their water policies to protect in practice. Given that the region has come to depend groundwater quality, while India has developed a heavily on groundwater irrigation, greater analysis draft model bill for groundwater. and sound policy on groundwater are critical for South Asia’s agricultural future. Box 9.2 - Adaptation Options for Groundwater Clifton et al (2010) provide a useful categorization of climate change adaptation options based on five groundwater processes: 1. Managing groundwater recharge. This can be undertaken by managing vegetation cover in recharge zones, using managed aquifer recharge (MAR) methods, controlling different land uses in recharge areas, and regulating river flows over recharge beds. 2. Managing groundwater storage. This can be achieved by increasing storage capacity through hydro- fracturing, dissolution or pressurization, managing storage levels in anticipation of high recharge events, MAR, improving scientific knowledge and forecasting skills. 3. Protecting groundwater quality. This can be achieved by regulating surface water levels to avoid acidification from acid sulphate soils, drawing down saltwater aquifers in coastal areas to protect freshwater aquifers, using MAR to maintain coastal aquifers, managing groundwater use to avoid contamination of freshwater aquifers by contaminated aquifers, treatment of groundwater to obtain necessary water quality, land use planning to avoid agriculture, industries and other contaminating land uses, educating land users to avoid contamination of aquifers, and the development and enforcement of water quality standards. 4. Managing demand for groundwater. This can require the capping of artesian bores and reducing wastage, using pipes and sealed channels rather than open channels, improving seasonal forecasts for crop planting decisions, developing systems of water restrictions during times of shortage, using appropriate groundwater quality for different uses, using MAR to bank water during times of plenty, monitoring groundwater use, improving water use efficiency, selecting crops with low water demands, using land use planning to match demand with water availability, conjunctive management, establishing standards surrounding groundwater use, using economic tools such as pricing to control demand, measuring and reporting groundwater use, education and behaviour change amongst groundwater users, and community participation in groundwater planning. 5. Managing groundwater discharge. Limit forestry plantations in shallow aquifer zones, land use planning that restricts high water using species, market mechanisms to account for groundwater use by forestry and similar activities. Source: Clifton et al 2010. 60 Water Resources Planning and Management Managed groundwater offers vital adaptation of the need to map flood-prone areas to limit opportunities. Box 9.2 summarizes the main settlements in exposed areas, and instituting flood adaptation opportunities offered by managed forecasting and early warning to allow time for groundwater. Because groundwater is better exposed populations to prepare for these events. buffered against increasing climate variability and Both flood mapping and forecasting as well as early is not subject to evaporative losses compared to warning systems should incorporate the expected surface water, it is likely to become a more significant effect of climate change on rainfall patterns and source of water under climate change. associated flow regimes (Box 9.3). These people- centered approaches are low-cost, effective, and Artificial recharge will increasingly be an important relevant to local conditions in flood-prone areas. part of managing groundwater. India, in its 2011 Model Bill for the Conservation, Protection and Nepal and Bhutan, in particular, have taken a risk Regulation of Groundwater, encourages artificial reduction approach for flood protection, requiring recharge of aquifers as one method for combating flood zoning, hazard mapping and early warning the overuse of many groundwater areas. Protection systems for GLOFs. Bhutan instituted a Disaster Zones can be declared that allow managed aquifer Risk Management Framework in 2006 and a Disaster recharge through rainwater harvesting and other Management Act in 2013, while both Bhutan and methods. Nepal specifically want to institute village-level early warning systems for floods (including GLOFs) and Flood management. Countries recognize the landslides. importance of non-structural responses to flood management. There is a widespread recognition Box 9.3 - Improving Flood preparedness While the mapping of flood-prone areas helps limit vulnerable settlements in exposed areas, forecasting floods improves the preparedness of exposed population. Mapping flood-prone areas requires the collection of data on climate, hydrology, topography, geology, land-cover, soil, and satellite images of vulnerable infrastructures. Hydrological models predict and forecast future flood extents and their magnitude and frequency. Early warning systems aim to provide time for the exposed population to take appropriate actions to minimize flood-induced damage and risk to life. Forecasting involves the conversion of data into forecasts (using hydrological models) that are transmitted to decision makers who then provide advance warnings for local authorities to take appropriate actions. Early warning systems generally operate at watershed scales while action units follow administrative boundaries. Improvement of forecast dissemination requires précis identification of the path of warning from forecast to persons responsible for actions. A way to reach this goal is to encourage sharing of information, especially in border areas where international cooperation is required to establish evacuation plans. People-centered approaches should be prioritized as they are low-cost, effective, and relevant to local conditions in flood-prone areas. Source: Lacombe et al (2017) Water Resources Planning and Management 61 9.2. Recommendations • Develop water plans at catchment and aquifer levels to establish safe withdrawal limits and to describe rules for water sharing, maintaining environmental functions, protecting water quality, and managing extreme events. Where risk assessments indicate, the impacts of climate change should be included in these plans. • Encourage greater implementation of conjunctive use where it is technically and economically sensible to help buffer against seasonal and inter- annual variability (to the extent possible). • Improve regulatory systems so that reuse of wastewater and industrial effluents can be conducted safely and environmentally responsibly. • Groundwater needs greater protection in policy, legislation and plans from over-abstraction and water quality degradation given its buffering qualities against the impacts of climate change. • Managed aquifer recharge (MAR) using storm- water runoff should be encouraged where it is feasible to offset overuse of aquifers. Water quality standards need to be established and enforced to ensure that aquifers are not contaminated by MAR activities. • Non-structural flood management, such as mapping and zoning flood plains, establishing flood forecasting and early warning systems can be used more widely in flood affected areas. 62 Water Resources Planning and Management COM MUNI CATI O NS, E D U CATI O N A ND PA RTI C I PATI O N wat e r m a n ag e m e n t , i n c lu d i n g m a n ag e m e n t f o r c l i m at e c h a n g e , r eq u i r e s ac t i o n at a l l l e v e l s f r o m n at i o n a l a n d lo c a l g ov e r n m e n t d o w n to c o m m u n i t y l e v e l . c o m m u n i c at i o n s p r o g r a m s a r e n e e d e d to b u i l d a n u n d e r s ta n d i n g o f wat e r m a n ag e m e n t i s s u e s a n d g ov e r n m e n t r e s p o n s e s , a s w e l l a s r e f l ec t lo c a l - l e v e l c o n c e r n s a n d o p p o rt u n i t i e s at h i g h e r l e v e l s o f d ec i s i o n m a k i n g . Capacity building and education will be needed to decision makers as well as the general public. In ensure that institutions possess sufficient skills to spite of the importance of building public support for understand water management issues, including water reforms, it was common to find only passing those that will potentially arise from climate change, attention paid to this requirement in the instruments and the range of responses available to manage these analyzed. However, Bangladesh recognizes in their issues. This involves not only technical skills but skills National Water Management Plan 2001 that there in administration of cross-sectoral collaboration and is a need to improve water knowledge, and to raise work, obtaining and managing finances, and working public awareness of sustainability, while the Nepal with State/Provincial institutions and local bodies. Water Plan 2005 recognizes the need to raise awareness of the advantages of IWRM among all Participation at local level helps broaden water stakeholders, general public, legislators, political management from a technical and professional activists, civil societies and professional societies. activity to one that includes all local water users. The LAPA process in Nepal relies on NGOs to Community-level adaptation is important because coordinate stakeholders, support field research and local impacts are finely-grained and it is important to educate community members about adaptation to take advantage of the full range of local experiences climate change impacts. However, information is in dealing with variability in water availability, as well difficult to obtain about the effectiveness of these as to build ownership among water users. local education efforts. Pakistan has perhaps the most comprehensive requirement for public and This chapter summarizes the findings under: (a) interest group education across its water and climate targeted and broad communications campaigns; change instruments. (b) strengthening capacity in institutions such as irrigation organizations and policy departments, and Strengthening institutional capacity. While there (c) participation by local and community groups; and are very large and diverse risks from water-related (d) recommendations. impacts of climate change across South Asia, there is little appreciation of the scale of the potential 10.1. Main Findings impacts amongst decision makers or the options Communications. There is widespread agreement in for adaptation. For example, in Sri Lanka, Bhutan, both water resources and climate change instruments Pakistan and Afghanistan, the absence of a strong about the importance of improving and elevating the climate adaptation program is not only due to understanding of climate change and its implications the lack of funding, but also related to very low for water resources amongst sector groups and institutional capacity to implement such programs Communications, Education and Participation 63 across scales, with most government staff involved there is little evidence that self-management of having little knowledge on climate adaptation issues irrigation districts improves agricultural productivity and approaches. There is little understanding that (Samad and Vermillion 1999), participatory implementing IWRM principles of good water management may help improve adaptive behaviors management constitutes a no regrets action that in the face of a changing climate. Currently, goes a long way towards building adaptability to ongoing policy discussions on climate adaptation climate change. More generally, there is a need in general, and IWRM in particular, have failed to to provide information and training on climate include local communities and marginalized groups change and its potential impacts on water resources into the shaping of adaptation strategies. This managers and users, so that they can make informed highlights the need to strengthen the role of local decisions about adaptation activities. communities, NGOs and research organizations as an integral part of the institutional landscape Lack of technical and administrative staff capacity in climate adaptation. Across the seven countries, is a significant issue for climate change adaptation. Water Users Associations (WUAs) can be used as In Sri Lanka, Bhutan, Pakistan and Afghanistan, the a starting point for better understanding farmers’ leading government agencies on climate adaptation adaptation strategies. For instance, the process have very limited capacity to monitor program by which WUAs and farmers decide to change the implementation on the ground. In India, state overall water delivery schedule to deal with climate governments directed the formulation of their State variability can be incorporated into the design and Action Plans on Climate Change (SAPCC) almost development of local climate adaptation programs. entirely towards the National Action Plan on Climate In addition, the establishment of BCAS, CEGIS and Change (NAPCC). This means that the formulation BIDS in Bangladesh could potentially contribute to and implementation of climate adaptation programs the provision of scientific information on climate continues to be directed by centralized funding adaptation. At present, WUAs and FOs are rarely mechanisms (both from donors and the government’s consulted, whilst formulating adaptation strategies. budget). There is a need to increase the overall capacity and performance of water resources and 10.2. Recommendations climate change agencies, and to undertake budgetary • Programs and special briefings are needed to reform to ensure that funding for climate adaptation educate sectoral groups as well as community can be channeled most effectively. leaders and the general public about the potential impacts of climate change on water resources and Community participation. All countries support possible adaptation actions that can reduce these community-level participation in adaptation activities impacts. These programs could start with irrigation in their water resources and climate instruments. WUAs where they are already well organized. However, across the seven countries, local communities continue to be positioned as recipients of (nationally- • Adequate staffing and training following a skills defined) adaptation programs, rather than as actors gap assessment can improve performance of capable of shaping their own adaption measures. national water resources and climate change Nevertheless, local communities continue to cope with adaptation agencies towards more effective climate variability and show capacity to deal with the climate adaptation. additional impacts from climate change. Engagement • Build an understanding in national water of local stakeholders and potential users/beneficiaries institutions about the advantages of devolving is important from planning and design through to responsibility (and providing resources) for implementation and monitoring of impacts. adaptation actions at local level. LAPAs in Nepal, while needing further strengthening, provide a The irrigation sector, the largest water using model for community level adaptive action. sector, has the greatest experience with devolving responsibility to local water user associations. While 64 Communications, Education and Participation F I NA N C I NG C LI M ATE C H ANGE A DA PTATI O N g lo b a l ly , a da p tat i o n i s u n d e r f u n d e d w h e n c o m pa r e d to m i t i g at i o n , w i t h o n ly 24% o f t h e c l i m at e c h a n g e f u n d i n g m o n i to r e d by c l i m at e f u n d s u p dat e b e i n g a l lo c at e d f o r a da p tat i o n ( t r uj i l lo et a l . 2015 ). f u n d i n g f o r a da p tat i o n i n t h e wat e r r e s o u r c e s s ec to r c o m e s f r o m b ot h p r o g r a m s to i m p r ov e wat e r p l a n n i n g a n d m a n ag e m e n t , d e l i v e r e d t h r o u g h t h e wat e r s ec to r , a n d t h r o u g h p r o g r a m s i n t e n d e d s p ec i f i c a l ly f o r c l i m at e c h a n g e a da p tat i o n . Findings about financing are organized under the key weaknesses. Other examples include the Climate headings: (a) assessing the cost of climate change Expenditure Report commissioned in Pakistan in impacts; (b) financing adaptation, and (c) strengthening 2015 to identify adaptation and mitigation spending institutions for managing adaptation finances. This as well as the relevant government ministries study did not assess the magnitude of financing responsible for financing, though there are, as yet, required to implement planned adaptation activities, few institutional adjustments to achieve better partly because it was a desk study limited to existing finance-planning linkage. In Bhutan, another example information and partly because of the complexities of is the Mainstreaming Reference Group’s aim to estimating costs when adaptation activities can occur more systematically incorporate climate change through multiple sectoral budgets. considerations into national- and local-level planning. 11.1. Main Findings Financing adaptation. A significant financing effort Assessing the cost of climate change impacts. will be required if adaptation plans and priorities Existing adaptation cost assessments are patchy are to be fully and effectively implemented. All the with fragmented sector-by-sector coverage. This countries, with the exception of Bangladesh and impedes the proper assessment of a country’s risks India, exhibit a high dependency on external funding and financing needs and priorities. (Sharma 2011). While this is not surprising given the much smaller economies of many of these countries, Current cost estimates expressed as a percentage of it implies that adaptation costs will increase given GDP mask important geographic and demographic that external funding has shifted from grants to loans differences that may mean vulnerable groups as well especially for Afghanistan and Nepal, where grants as key sectors are overlooked or under represented. currently make up a significant portion of external climate adaptation financing. Even in Bangladesh The majority of funds for adaptation cannot be and India, where adaptation financing has been clearly identified, making any assessment of spending strongly driven by government spending, significant on climate adaptation, including in the water reductions in government allocations for adaptation in sector, only approximate. There is, however, some current budgets suggest this trend may be changing. progress in attempting to better identify climate These countries are likely to need to obtain bilateral, change financing in different countries. The clearest multilateral and private funding, and to compete for examples are the two major evaluations of structural scarce global funding on climate adaptation. weaknesses in climate change finance spending in Bangladesh, commissioned by the Ministry of The role of the private sector, in providing credit Finance, which provides detailed means of addressing and insurance facilities, could be increased. Index- Financing Climate Change Adaptation 65 based insurance schemes are an innovative Mainstreaming adaptation into sectoral programs approach to developing effective safety nets for is widely recognized in all South Asian countries low-income, flood-prone communities. Whereas as being central to uptake. While mainstreaming traditionally, flood-risk management has focused adaptation activities is commendable, it may simply on engineered responses, such as dams and flood shift the responsibility for climate change adaptation walls, with compensation often an ad-hoc post onto sector agencies that have little knowledge event response, the insurance schemes secure about climate adaptation issues and approaches. funds for compensation before a flood occurs, Mainstreaming needs to be accompanied by a and in a systematic manner. These schemes can clear plan towards institutional strengthening for accommodate poorer households farming even less the specific sectors playing a crucial role in climate than 1 ha of land, whereas traditional insurance adaptation (e.g., agriculture, water, energy). works best for smaller numbers of larger farm units and high value crops. 11.2. Recommendations • Climate change cost estimates should be The mechanisms for financing climate change disaggregated across sectors. Although some adaptation are scattered, resulting not only in countries have started taking initiatives in this inaccurate estimates of adaptation costs related regard (e.g. Bhutan with SAPAs) further work to specific climate risks, but also in uncoordinated needs to be done. Identification of inter-sectoral funds channeled for climate adaptation across the linkages can indicate where multiple costs can different sectors and levels. be avoided or minimized through the same investment. Although water-specific financing data was hard to locate, the little information available suggests that • Cost estimates should reflect the different the water sector is generally not a priority for climate vulnerabilities of specific population groups, change institutions. In a majority of South Asian key sectors and geographical areas in order to countries agriculture is generally the most funded, provide a more spatially and socially nuanced set with water failing to feature in the top-funded of adaptation responses. sectors even though there is a strong overlap with • A tracking mechanism such as a climate marker agricultural water management and development for being considered by the Government of adaptation. At the same time, better water resources Bangladesh could support the development of a management contributes to adaptation and so ‘value for money’ accountability mechanism. This expenditures that are not specifically tagged as would help track the total amount of resources being for adaptation are likely to be net contributors spent on climate-related expenditure against the to adaptation outcomes. Thus, Bangladesh has impact generated. established an estimated 165,000 deep tube • South Asian countries will need to tap a wider wells since 2000 (Winston et al. 2013) to increase range of adaptation financing sources, including food security and meet the growing demand for the private sector for credit and insurance facilities. supplementary irrigation attributed to climate change. While this investment is justified under • Staff in both climate change agencies and sectoral supporting food security, at the same time it also agencies that are being asked to take responsibility contributes to water resources adaptation. for adaptation activities need training in both technical and administrative topics. Strengthening institutions. The smaller economies struggle to navigate a complex and competitive external funding landscape with under-developed in-country capacity. They do not have the skills and expertise to make submissions for financing projects and so are disadvantaged in tackling adaptation activities. 66 Financing Climate Change Adaptation R ECO MM E NDATI O NS FOR BUI LDI NG ADAPTATI O N CA PA C I TY FOR T H E WATE R SE CTO R t h i s c h a p t e r p r e s e n t s s i x b r oa d s e t s o f r ec o m m e n dat i o n s f o r i m p r ov i n g a da p t i v e c a pac i t y i n t h e wat e r s ec to r ( ta b l e 5.1 ). t h e s e r ec o m m e n dat i o n s a r e s t r u c t u r e d a r o u n d t h e 6 e l e m e n t s o f t h e a da p tat i o n f r a m e w o r k d i s c u s s e d i n pa rt 2 : (i) wat e r r e s o u r c e s k n o w l e d g e , (ii) wat e r r e s o u r c e s g ov e r n a n c e , (iii) wat e r r e s o u r c e s i n f r a s t r u c t u r e , (iv) wat e r r e s o u r c e s p l a n n i n g a n d m a n ag e m e n t , (v) c o m m u n i c at i o n , e d u c at i o n a n d pa rt i c i pat i o n ., a n d (vi) a da p tat i o n f i n a n c i n g . While these recommendations represent an knowledge from research institutions through overview of activities that would help build resilience agricultural extension services to farmers, and the to climate change in the water sector, not all development of capacities to implement these activities are relevant to each country. Each country efficiency measures. Identifying good practice faces a different risk profile (Table 4.1) and each has examples and using as models for disseminating developed priorities for its climate related activities. more widely scientific understanding to irrigators Thus, the recommendation for a transboundary is suggested. flood early warning system would not be relevant to Sri Lanka while the proposed seawater intrusion 4. Several countries proposed sharing water data initiative would not be relevant to Bhutan and Nepal. across transboundary river basins and aquifers. Identify and develop opportunities for shared 12.1. Water Resources Knowledge early warning systems for flood (including GLOF) 1. Build capacity of South Asian countries to use and landslide forecasting through design of an near real-time remotely-sensed water-related online method for collating and reconciling data indices of floods and droughts. collected through different protocols across countries. Identify administrative issues that 2. A jointly developed flood early-warning require further study for conjunctive use and system pilot on one of the region’s major management of surface and groundwater. shared transboundary rivers could examine both the technology required and the means 5. For community-level adaptation to become a of disseminating possible flood conditions to successful part of the response to climate change, potentially-affected communities. This would community-level monitoring and data sharing integrate existing national systems and support needs to be organized and funded so that it can development of a region-wide network. also contribute to higher levels of management. Nepal can be used as a case study to develop 3. Achieving improved water-use efficiencies will protocols for community led data collection, require better collation and dissemination of training and capacity development. Recommendations for Building Adaptation Capacity for the Water Sector 67 12.2. Water Resources Policies and what is lacking is an explicit mechanism to Institutions reflect adaptation needs from the ground-level upwards. This would enable planning, allocation 1. Institutional impediments to effective and tracking of climate funding to support priority coordination between highly water-dependent needs more effectively and efficiently, and to sectors and between water agencies and ensure accountability in the conversion of funds institutions responsible for climate change in into results. each country needs to be reviewed, leading to recommendations for reforms and incentives 12.3 . Water Resources for improving coordination between the water Infrastructure agencies, environmental agencies, and/or 1. Develop a climate adaptation/infrastructure independent coordinating committees. management and development initiative. Major 2. Develop an initiative that will support effective infrastructure will only provide adaptation to mainstreaming of climate change adaptation climate change if it is planned, designed and across water-dependent sectors. This could operated to take account of climate change and include improving understanding by water and if it is cost-effective compared to other options climate managers of the role and benefits of taking such as improving water use efficiencies in an IWRM approach (even if implementation is irrigation, power generation and other industries. difficult) as an adaptation response; educating This initiative would not only focus on major officials in water and climate related Ministries on structures for storage but also rehabilitation and improving coordination with agencies responsible restoration of local structures, traditional storage for climate change; and properly defining mechanisms (including tanks) and groundwater adaptation activities and tagging them within storage (including MAR and sand dams). A review Ministry budgets without incurring excessive of the design standards and operating rules to overheads. ensure that they take account of climate change should also be included. The design of new storage 3. In federal systems (India and Pakistan) a significant infrastructure will require greater attention to proportion of the adaptation budget is directed issues of soil erosion and siltation because of through state and provincial agencies. A review of the frequency and intensity of major storms these arrangements will help to understand the anticipated under climate change scenarios. The impediments to coordination between state and initiative should also include a review of flood provincial agencies and national agencies and, embankments, dam design standards and dam also, with local adaptation activities and identify safety measures and monitoring requirements. actions for improving fund flow and coordination. 12.4. Water Resources Planning and 4. Develop a groundwater–climate change initiative Management that would support elevating attention to the 1. Coordinating across national boundaries to role of groundwater in adapting to climate develop water-sharing plans that incorporate change in policy, practice and in financing, and the effects of climate change will become more that would promote best practice in controlling important as rainfall and river flows become less groundwater use in different hydro-geological reliable and more uncertain. A preliminary review and socioeconomic settings. of existing water sharing treaties would help build confidence and tackle technical issues to support 5. Review how center-local linkages for implementing transboundary water planning. adaptation programs could be strengthened. While ministries in charge of local government 2. Introducing basin-level planning and management are included in central decision making bodies, is a major challenge. An initiative on regional basin 68 Recommendations for Building Adaptation Capacity for the Water Sector planning for climate change could draw lessons monitoring – with the goal of scaling up lessons from experience in incorporating climate change more widely across South Asia (Box 12.1). The into basin-level water resources plans elsewhere study could draw on the experience of the Niger (e.g. Rufiji Basin Tanzania, Box 9.1) and apply them Basin Climate Resilience Investment Plan which through pilot studies in South Asian countries uses existing regional institutions to develop a that are actively attempting to introduce basin prioritized investment plan with which to improve planning (including Nepal, Pakistan and India). resilience to climate shocks. Such an approach would not only improve adaptive responses but 3. A saltwater intrusion initiative could be developed would also serve to support efforts to improve for protecting coastal water supply. Saltwater water management through IWRM. The Bank’s intrusion into coastal aquifers will affect rural work in Brazil has highlighted the importance and urban communities along the over10,000 of surrounding an early warning system with km long Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka vulnerability impact assessments, drought coastline. However, it receives relatively little contingency planning and the strengthening of attention in climate changes strategies. A review institutional capacity to take advantage of early of pilot urban and rural water supply systems from warning data. within and beyond South Asia can help define the specific steps to be taken to properly monitor 5. Urban areas are likely to be severely impacted by saltwater intrusion, develop cost-effective the effects of climate change. Current activities protective measures and improve overall urban to improve urban water management in South and rural water supply planning, management and Asian countries could incorporate the effects of operations. climate change. Possible responses include urban planning, protection of urban water utilities, 4. An integrated pilot study of drought resilience storm water management, sewage management could be undertaken using a combination of and urban water supply. actions – demand management, regulation, water efficiency improvement, MAR, and Box 12.1 - Improving resilience to droughts Solutions include reduced water use, better understanding of hydro-meteorological processes, more powerful models to predict droughts and sound selection of sites and structures to store water. Improved water use efficiency and productivity include stemming water losses through leakage in irrigation canals, reducing evaporation from soils and reservoirs and by encouraging deep percolation from the root zone. To attain these objectives, it is necessary to better disseminate knowledge from research institutions through agricultural extension services to farmers, and to implement agricultural policies. At the plot level, drip-irrigation, soil mulching and soil amendments are options to reduce water losses through evaporation and percolation. Water use efficiency should also be considered at the scale of transboundary river basins where water should be equitably shared between countries (i.e., between India and Pakistan in the Indus Basin; and between India and Bangladesh in the GBM). Multi-year reservoir storage capacity is required especially where groundwater levels are declining and aquifers worsening in quality (e.g. in the Lower Indus Basin). More storage not only requires the building of new storage but also reductions in the sediment loads of rivers through improved management of upstream landscapes. In the HKH, most of the hydropower barrages are run-of-the- river with limited storage capacity. With the reduction or total disappearance of glaciers and snow that provide storage to sustain dry-season flows during the summer, more storage capacity will be required to buffer against greater seasonal variations in river flows. Source: Lacombe et al (2017) Recommendations for Building Adaptation Capacity for the Water Sector 69 12.5. Communication, Education and of adaptation activities. It would review how Participation existing community and local institutions, including local government, can be utilized more 1. A review of Bangladesh and Nepal case studies effectively. It would also review the guidelines, to learn lessons about of successful community regulations, education and technical support engagement in adaptation actions would be (including access to knowledge and information) timely. Nepal now has 200 LAPAs in progress, needed to help them become involved in while Bangladesh has a history of community- adaptation planning and decision making. It level adaptation to extreme climate events. The would support better linking strategies of review could assess how well they work, what government agencies in climate adaptation with aspects have been successful, what lessons have local community strategies to cope with climate been learnt, how to organize local adaptation change. It would consider climate-smart villages, initiatives into nationally-coherent responses in which researchers document local villagers’ while still retaining local control, how to finance adaptation strategies in agricultural development and develop skills at a local level, and how to and water use, and would support development disseminate lessons from each local initiative. and sharing of ‘water-smart agriculture’ ideas 2. A water, climate, poverty and gender initiative across the region. could help design water-related adaptation 6. Promote an education initiative for improving the measures to better benefit the poor and understanding of climate change impacts in the disadvantaged communities and to integrate water sector by decision makers. An analysis of gender-responsiveness into current and future potential bottlenecks in the uptake of scientific adaptation approaches. information and actions to reduce any bottlenecks 3. A regional educational initiative on climate would be timely. Training in the use of techniques adaptation and water management could be such as Decision Tree analysis and integrated undertaken to develop the best way to raise general river basin planning would help decision makers understanding of climate change impacts. Sri Lanka appreciate the sensitivity of proposed projects says that generic media campaigns are not effective to climate impacts and the role of river basin (because of deep public mistrust of donor-driven plans to inform future development, operational processes) and that targeted approaches through and management decisions, respectively. This selected on-ground implementation agencies and would enable better use of science to influence small groups are more effective. The initiative adaptation decision making. would develop criteria for targeted approaches in 12.6. Adaptation Financing different countries. 1. Consistent with the climate and water policies, 4. 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Water Sector Instruments Policy Legislation Strategy/Plan Other Afghanistan • Strategic Policy • Water Law 2009 • Water Sector Strategy 2008 • National Framework for Water • Environment law Development Sector 2005 2007 Framework 2002 • Agriculture and Natural Resources Policy and Strategy 2005 • Groundwater Development Policy Bangladesh • National Water Policy • Water Act 2013 • National Water • Guidelines for 1999 • Environment Management Plan 2001 Participatory Water • National Agriculture Conservation Act • National Plan for Disaster Management 2001 Policy 1999 1995 Management 2010-2015 • Water Rules (draft) • National Agriculture • Environment 2015 Policy 2010 (draft) Conservation • Coastal Zone Policy Amendment Act 2010 2005 • Water Development • National Policy for Board Act 2000 Safe Water Supply • Disaster Management and Sanitation 1998 Act 2012 • National Agricultural Extension Policy (draft) 2012 Bhutan • National Irrigation • Water Act 2011 • National Integrated Water • Water Regulation of Policy 2011 • National Environment Resources Management Bhutan 2014 • Bhutan Water Policy Protection Act 2007 Plan (draft) 2016 2007 • Disaster Management • National Environment Act 2013 Strategy (The Middle Path) 1998 • National Disaster Risk Management Framework 2006 • Power System Master Plan 2003-2022 2004 78 Appendix 1 Water Sector Instruments (continuation) Policy Legislation Strategy/Plan Other India • National Water Policy • Water (Prevention and • Ministry of Water Resources 2012 Control of Pollution) Strategic Plan 2011 • National Urban Cess Amendment Act Sanitation Policy 2008 2003 • New Agriculture • Water Prevention and Policy 2000 Control of Pollution Act 1974 • National Water Framework Law (draft) 2013 • Model Bill for the Conservation, Protection and Regulation of Groundwater (Draft) 2011 • Interstate Rivers Dispute Act 1956 • River Boards Act 1956 Nepal • Irrigation Policy 2013 • Water Resources Act • Water Resources Strategy • National Water Supply 1992 2002 and Sanitation Sector • Irrigation Act 2016 (In • National Water Plan 2005 Policy 2014 (draft) Parliament) • Renewable Energy • National Rural Water • Irrigation Rules1999 Investment Program Plan Supply and Sanitation • Electricity Act 1992 2011 Policy 2004 • Electricity Rules 1993 • National Urban Water • Drinking Water Rules Supply and Sanitation 1998 Sector Policy 2009 • Water-Induced Disaster Management Policy 2015 • Hydropower Development Policy 2001 Pakistan • National Water Policy • Water and Power • Water Sector Strategy 2002 • Pakistan 2025 One (draft) 2006 Development Nation-One Vision • National Water Policy Authority Act 1958 2014 (draft) 2015 • National Sanitation Policy 2015 • National Drinking Water Policy 2009 • National Environment Policy 2005 • National Wetlands Policy 2009 (Draft) Appendix 1 79 Water Sector Instruments (continuation) Policy Legislation Strategy/Plan Other Sri Lanka • National Drinking • Water Resources Water Policy Board Act 1999 • National Rural Water • Irrigation Amendment Supply and Sanitation Act 1994 Policy 2001 • Disaster Management • National Disaster Act 2005 Management Policy • Agrarian 2013 Development Act • National 2000 Environmental Policy • Mahaweli Authority and Strategies 2003 Act 1979 • National Wetland • National Policy and Strategy Environmental 2006 Amendment Act 1988 • National Policy • Irrigation Amendment on Protection and Act 1994 Conservation of Water Sources, Catchments and Reservations in Sri Lanka 2014 (draft) Climate Change Instruments Policy Legislation Strategy/Plan Other Afghanistan • National Adaptation Program of • INDC 2015 Action 2009 • First National Communication • National Climate Change UNFCCC 2013 Strategy and Action Plan 2015 • National Adaptation Plan 2015 Bangladesh • Climate • National Adaptation Program of • Second National Communication Change Trust Action 2009 UNFCCC 2012 Fund Act • Climate Change Strategy and • INDC 2015 2010 Action Plan 2009 Bhutan • National Adaptation Program of • Second National Communication Action 2006 UNFCCC 2011 • Renewable Natural Resources • INDC 2015 Sector Adaptation Plan of Action 2013 India • National Action Plan on Climate • Second National Communication Change 2008 UNFCCC 2012 • National Water Mission (under • INDC 2015 Action Plan on Climate Change) • First Biennial Update Report 2008 2016 Nepal • Climate • National Adaptation Program of • Second National Communication Change Policy Action 2010 UNFCCC 2014 2011 • INDC 2016 Pakistan • National • National Framework for • First National Communication Climate Implementing Climate Change UNFCCC 2003 Change Policy Policy 2013 • INDC 2015 2012 Sri Lanka • National • National Climate Change • Second National Communication Climate Adaptation Strategy 2011-2016 UNFCCC 2011 Change Policy (2010) • Water Sector Vulnerability Profile 2012 • Information, Education and 2010 Communications Strategy for • Technology Needs Assessment Climate Change Adaptation 2010 and Action Plans 2011 • National Adaptation Plan for • INDC 2015 Climate Change Impacts 2015 80 Appendix 1