WORLDBANKGROUP GR Q GFDRR RI5K PROFILES A5IA (ECA) EROPE ANDCENTRAL AFFECTED BY 100-YEAR AFFECTED BY 250-YEAR CAPITAL LOSS FROM 250-YEAR FLOOD EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKE Estomia 0.ouain13mlin GDP $23.6 billion* stonia's population and econo- and agriculture making a small con- my are exposed to earthquakes tribution. Estonia's per capita GDP and floods, with floods posing was $17,900. the greater risk. The model results for present-day risk shown in this risk pro- This map displays GDP by province in file are based on population and gross Estonia, with greater color saturation domestic product (GDP) estimates for indicating greater GDP within a prov- 2015. The estimated damage caused by ince. The blue circles indicate the risk historical events is inflated to 2015 US of experiencing floods and the orange dollars. circles the risk of earthquakes in terms of normalized annual average a Close to 70 percent of Estonia's pop- of affected GDR The largest circles 0 0 Raplamaa larvamaa ulation lives in urban environments. represent the greatest normalized The country's GDP was approximately risk The risk is estimated using flood agevmaa US$23.6 billion in 2015, with nearly 70 and earthquake risk models. percent derived from services, most of the remainder generated by industry, The table displays the provinces at o RU 5 5IAN greatest normalized risk for each per- Saaremaa Parnumaa artuEDERATION il. In relative terms, as shown in the Viljandimaa table, the province at greatest risk of TOP AFFECTED PROVINCES floods is Parnumaa, and the one at 0 greatest risk of earthquakes is Tartu- o Potvamaa maa. In absolute terms, the province Vlgamaa EARTHQUAKE at greatest risk of both floods and ANNUAL AVERAGE OF ANNUAL AVERAGE OF earthquakes is Harjumaa. Vorumaa AFFECTED GDP (%) AFFECTED GDP (%) Parnumaa Tartumaa 0 Jogevamaa Raplamas 0 Tartumnaa Tda-rturaa Parnumnaa Parrvumaa 0 0 Annual Average of Affected GOP ()GOP (billions of $ Ida-Virumas U Polvamnas 0 Hapjumaa Harjumnaa 0 Hari2rnaa Hiiumaa 0 02 - -There is a high correlation ala amaa1 (r=0.95) between the 9 population and GDP of a Laanrnaa 0 La-ViruaaEARTHUAKE Idaa-Viruaa a EARTHQUAKEpovice Polvamaa 0 Laanemaa 0 Viljandimaa u Saaremaa 0 0 Negligible EstniaWORLDBANKGROUP GFDR ROPE AND A51A(ECA) ECENTRAL his map depicts the impact of event, then less frequent events make flooding on provinces' GDPs, a larger contribution to the annual represented as percentages of average of affected GDP. Thus, even their annual average GDPs affect- if a province's annual affected GDP ed, with greater color saturation seems small, less frequent and more indicating higher percentages. The intense events can still have large bar graphs represent GDP affected impacts. by floods with return periods of 10 years (white) and 100 years (black). The annual average population affect- The horizontal line across the bars ed by flooding in Estonia is about Ta also shows the annual average of GDP 6,000 and the annual average affect- affected by floods. ed GDP about $100 million. Within Harjumnaa the various provinces, the 10- and ZLaane-Virumaa :M When a flood has a 10-year return 100-year impacts do not differ much Ida-Virumaa period, it means the probability of so relatively frequent floods have occurrence of a flood of that magni- large impacts on these averages. r tude or greater is 10 percent per year - Raptamaa lr A 100-year flood has a probability HiiumaaL of occurrence of 1 percent per year. This means that over a long period of time, a flood of that magnitude will, on average, occur once every 100 L U S I AN years. It does not mean a 100-year Saaremaa Parnumaa Tartumaa FEDER AT ION flood will occur exactly once every Vi[jandima 100 years. In fact, it is possible for a flood of any return period to occur Polvamaa more than once in the same year, or to appear in consecutive years, or not Valgamaa to happen at all over a long period of time. Vorumaa reteAffected ad10-ea ar 0are GOP ()for Ann ualI Avera ge of Affecte d GODP() If the 10- and 100-yearIfte bars the 1 n 0-errtr eid 1 n 0-errtr eid same height, then the impact of a 10- year event is as large as that of a 100- One block=1% 10 year event, and the annual average of 0 affected GDP is dominated by events that happen relatively frequently. Annual average 2 ATVIA If the impact of a 100-year event is much greater than that of a 10-year 10-year 100-year EstniaWORLDBANKGROUP GFDR ROPE AND A5IA(ECA) ECENTRAL E stonia has experienced to happen at all over a long period several modest earthquakes. of time. Its worst since 1900 took place in 1976 in Osmussaar. Earlier If the 10- and 100-year bars are earthquakes happened in 1602, the same height, then the impact 1670, and 1881, all in Narva. of a 10-year event is as large as that of a 100-year event, and the This map depicts the impact of annual average of affected GDP is earthquakes on provinces' GDPs, dominated by events that happen represented as percentages of their relatively frequently. If the impact Tallinn annual average GDPs affected, with of a 100-year event is much greater greater color saturation indicat- than that of a 10-year event, then Harjumaa ing higher percentages. The bar less frequent events make larger Laane-Virumaa graphs represent GDP affected by contributions to the annual average Ida-Virumaa earthquakes with return periods of affected GDP. Thus, even if a of 10 years (white) and 100 years province's annual affected GDP .... (black). The horizontal line across seems small, less frequent and Raplamanarvamaalrm more intense events can still have Hiiumaa Laanemaa the bars also shows the annual average of GDP affected by earth- large impacts. Jogevamaa quakes. The annual average population af- When an earthquake has a 10-year fected by earthquakes in Estonia is Parnumaa return period, it means the prob- about 200 and the annual average T RUSIAN Saaremaa TartumanO ability of occurrence of an earth- affected GDP about $3 million. The VLaandimaaaFEDERATI0N quake of that magnitude or greater annual averages of fatalities and is 10 percent per year. A 100-year capital losses caused by earth- -------- earthquake has a probability of quakes are less than one and about Polvama occurrence of t percent per year. $700,000, respectively. The fatal- Valgaimaa This means that over a long period ities and capital losses caused by of time, an earthquake of that mag- more intense, less frequent events Vorumaa nitude will, on average, occur once can be substantially larger than every 100 years. It does not mean the annual averages. For example, LATV A a 100-year earthquake will occur an earthquake with a 0.4 percent exactly once every 100 years. In annual probability of occurrence GDP (%) not affected for 10 and Annual Average of Affected GDP (%) fact, it is possible for an earthquake (a 250-year return period event) 1oo-year return periods of any return period to occur more could cause about $30 million in Annual average = 0 than once in the same year, or to capital loss (less than 1 percent of appear in consecutive years, or not GDP). Es on aWORLDBANKGROUP AN CENTRAL E|GFDRRE A51A(ECA) EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKE ANNUAL AVERAGE CAPITAL LOSS ($) ANNUAL AVERAGE FATALITIES 00 0 ihe rose diagrams show the provinces with the potential 0 4 Zfor s greatest annual average capital losses and highest annual average numbers of fatalities, as determined using an earthquake risk model. The potential for greatest capital Searemaa 20,0 - i rumaa 7 000 Raplamaa 0 Laane-Virumaa 0 loss occurs in Harjumaa, which is not surprising, given the economic importance of the province. 0 -- --- -- ------ ----------------- ----------- ---- ------------------- ---- ------ ------------ -------- ----- --- -- ----------------------------------------------------- --- ------------- -- 4 ,m (~EARTHQUAKE he exceedance probability curves display the GDP EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY CURVE. 2015 AND 2080 KJ. EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY CURVE 2015 AND 2080 E affected by, respectively, floods and earthquakes for 2.5 0.6 varying probabilities of occurrence. Values for two different time periods are shown. A solid line depicts the affected 2.0 0. GDP for 2015 conditions. A diagonally striped hand depicts the range of affected GDP based on a selection of climate 20801. and socioeconomic scenarios for 2080. For example, if Esto- 0.3 nia had experienced a 100-year return period flood event in 2015, the affected GDP would have been an estimated $600 /=w 1.0 M 0.2 ~2080 million. In 2080, however, the affected GDP from the same 2015 1 0.5 type of event would range from about $1 billion to about $2 200.1 billion. If Estonia had experienced a 250-year earthquake event in 2015, the affected GDP would have been about $80 10 50 100 million. In 2080, the affected GDP from the same type of turn period (yeas) Return period (years) event would range from about $200 million to about $500 10 2 1 4 billion, due to population growth, urbanization, and the robaPbihty o robability (%) increase in exposed assets. All historical data on earthquakes are from J.Daniell and A.Schaefer, "Eastern Europe and Central Asia Region Earthquake Risk Assessment Country and Province Profiling," final report to GFDRR, 2014. Damage estimates for all histori- cal events have been inflated to 2015 US$.