103023 For more information, visit http://www.worldbank.org/prospects Overview Table of Contents  According to the January 2016 Global Economic Monthly Highlights………………………….2 Prospects, global growth is expected to edge up to 2.9 Special Focus……………………………......7 percent this year, but substantial downside risks persist. Major data releases……………………….....9  Headwinds to emerging-market and developing-country Other reports from Prospects Group………...9 growth remain significant, as commodity prices continue Recent WB country reports……………….....9 to slide and global trade and capital inflows remain weak.  Continued growth disappointments in large emerging Annex table: economic developments……...10 Annex table: financial markets……………..11 markets combined with rising financial market volatility could set back developing-country and global growth significantly. Crude oil prices, daily Chart of the Month US$/bbl 160  Crude oil prices fell to below $30/barrel in mid-January, 140 WTI Brent their lowest levels since 2003, reflecting both supply and 120 demand factors. 100  On the supply side, resilient U.S. production, 80 expectations of rising exports from Iran, high OECD 60 stocks and OPEC’s renewed commitment to its market 40 20 share strategy contributed to the supply glut. 0  On the demand side, weakening growth prospects in Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-10 Jan-16 Jan-08 Jan-12 Jan-14 large emerging markets, a strong U.S. dollar and mild weather in the northern hemisphere also played a role. Source: Bloomberg. Special Focus: Spillovers in Europe and Central Asia  As a region with a generally high degree of openness, developing Europe and Central Asia (ECA) is vulnerable to spillovers from Russia and major advanced economies.  Estimates suggest that a 1 percentage point growth slowdown in Russia could set back growth in other ECA countries by an average of 0.3 percentage point over two years. Spillover effects from Turkey are small and limited to a few neighboring countries.  Despite growing intra-regional ties, spillovers from the rest of the world are more pronounced than within- region ones, with a 1 percentage point growth slowdown in the rest of the world lowering growth in ECA by an average of 1.7 percentage points over two years. Prepared by Marc Stocker (33431), with contributions from John Baffes, Xiaodan Ding, Christian Eigen-Zucchi, Xinghao Gong, Eung Ju Kim, and Ekaterine Vashakmadze. DECPG - January 2016 January 2016 Monthly Highlights Global growth: emerging market slowdown. A further deceleration of activity in key emerging and developing economies overshadowed a modest recovery in advanced economies in 2015, resulting in another disappointing year for the global economy. According to the January 2016 Global Economic Prospects report, global growth slowed to 2.4 percent last year, down from 2.6 percent in 2014 and 0.4 percentage point below previous expectations. Developing-country growth reached a post-crisis low in 2015, with activity decelerating particularly rapidly among commodity-exporting emerging and frontier markets (Figure 1.A). Drivers of this synchronous and protracted slowdown have been both cyclical and structural in nature, and resulted from a combination of external and domestic headwinds. Sharp declines in commodity prices, weakening capital inflows, and subdued global trade have created a particularly challenging external environment for commodity exporters, where most of the recent growth disappointments concentrate (Figure 1.B). Domestically, declining productivity growth, eroding policy buffers, and heightened policy uncertainty have contributed to weaker growth and lingering vulnerabilities in many emerging and developing countries. Baseline forecasts assume that growth will continue to strengthen in major advanced countries (Figure 1.C) and headwinds for developing countries will gradually diminish, allowing developing-country growth to bottom out this year at a significantly slower-than-expected 4.8 percent, but still up from 4.3 percent in 2015. Risks to current projections remain largely titled to the downside. China: ongoing rebalancing. Growth in China slowed further to 6.9 percent last year, down from 7.3 percent in 2014. Internal rebalancing from investment to consumption and from industry to services is proceeding. Growth of industry slowed sharply in 2015, while robust services growth generated a majority of new urban jobs last year. Policy easing, including cuts in interest rates and reserve requirements, as well as measures to boost fiscal spending and ease regulations, helped mitigate the slowdown in the final quarter of 2015 (to 6.8 percent y-o-y). In December, total domestic credit flows accelerated again, as corporate bond issuances reached record levels, potentially stimulating activity in the short-term but delaying the deleveraging of highly-indebted entities. As in August 2015, Chinese equity markets declined sharply in January 2016. This appeared more connected to market concerns about the direction of policy, including exchange rate policy, rather than an indication of a significant slowdown of the real economy. Given modest banking system exposure to the stock market and the limited share of equity in corporate financing and household wealth, the implications for the real economy are expected to be contained, unless the market decline becomes much more protracted. To foster greater exchange rate flexibility, China’s central bank introduced a change in the calculation of the renminbi reference rate in August, and published a trade-weighted index in December, possibly indicating a shift in policy focus away from the bilateral exchange rate with the U.S. dollar. The renminbi depreciated 7 percent against the dollar since August last year, but remained broadly stable in trade-weighted terms, as other major currencies depreciated as well (Figure 1.D). The inclusion of the renminbi in the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights basket last November is considered an important milestone for China’s integration into the global financial system. Brazil: multiple headwinds. The recession in 2015 was severe (with an estimated GDP contraction of 3.7 percent), and is expected to continue in 2016 (with a contraction of 2.5 percent). Investment in Brazil has declined steadily, reflecting investors’ loss of confidence, which was exacerbated last year by the widening investigations into the Petrobras scandal. Despite both monetary and fiscal policy tightening, inflation accelerated to above 10 percent and the fiscal deficit widened. While Brazil continues to grapple with political and policy uncertainty, the eventual re- anchoring of inflation expectations and narrowing of the fiscal deficit should lessen the need for further policy tightening in 2016, facilitating a return to growth in 2017. The protracted slowdown in Brazil is expected to weigh on growth in other South American economies, including Argentina, Paraguay, Ecuador, and Peru. Russia: adjusting to lower oil prices. Russia’s economy is estimated to have contracted by 3.8 percent in 2015, and activity may fall by a further 0.7 percent in 2016. The economy is struggling to adjust to persistently low oil prices, which have contributed to a sharp depreciation of the ruble (by 38 percent against the U.S. dollar since May 2015). This depreciation has contributed to a pickup in inflation to double-digits (above 15 percent for most of the year) and led the central bank to increase policy interest rates (set at 11 percent). Sanctions imposed by the West against Russia following the annexation of Crimea have been extended, depressing confidence and cutting off businesses and banks from global financial markets. The contraction in Russia is having substantial spillovers for other countries in the region, especially in Central Asia and the Caucasus, through trade, remittances and capital flow channels. 2 January 2016 India: a bright spot. Growth is expected to strengthen to 7.8 percent in 2016, from 7.3 percent in 2015. The government announced in November the liberalization of FDI in 15 sectors, including construction, banking, defense, and commerce, as well as measures to rationalize foreign investment processes, fast-track decision-making, and increase FDI caps. Progress on infrastructure improvements and government efforts to boost investment, together with low international energy prices and domestic energy reforms should help boost domestic demand. Better growth prospects relative to other major developing countries should help support capital inflows during the transition to tighter global financing conditions. Low-income countries: thus far resilient. Growth in low-income countries slowed to 5.1 percent in 2015 from 6.1 percent in 2014, but generally remained robust among large oil-importing countries (e.g. Ethiopia and Rwanda) and some prospective oil producers (e.g. Mozambique and Tanzania). However, with major metal and mineral commodity prices falling by 50 percent or more since early 2011, the terms of trade of many low-income commodity-producing countries have deteriorated significantly. Some mining and energy projects could be delayed, potentially exposing macroeconomic vulnerabilities associated with large pre-production investments. Global trade: still weak. Despite a modest ongoing recovery in major advanced economies, global trade remained subdued throughout 2015. This was mostly driven by falling import demand from large commodity-exporting emerging markets such as Brazil and Russia, as well as an increasingly pronounced shift in sources of growth in China that was accompanied by a sharp deceleration in both imports and exports last year (Figure 1.E). In an environment of weak global demand, exchange rate depreciations have thus far shown limited benefits for exports in the affected countries, while contributing to rising costs and slowing import growth. Weak global trade not only reduces export opportunities in the short-term but also the scope for productivity gains through increasing specialization and technological transfer over the medium-term. Small open developing economies could be particularly affected. Commodity prices: still declining. Most commodity prices continued to fall in December and January amid abundant supplies, weakening emerging-market growth prospects, and a strong U.S. dollar (Figure 1.F). One of the largest declines was for oil prices, which fell from $51/barrel in early October to less than $30 mid-January. The recent drop in oil prices reflects in part evidence of more resilient U.S. production than initially expected; indications that Iran will increase its oil exports faster than previously envisioned, and mild weather in the northern hemisphere curbing demand for heating. OECD stocks remain high and OPEC reaffirmed its aim to maintain market share at its December 4th meeting, further contributing to a supply glut. For 2015 as a whole, average energy prices tumbled 45 percent from the previous year while metal prices declined 15 percent. Agricultural prices have also declined reflecting higher stocks and good harvest prospects, despite some local disruptions due to El Niño (e.g., for rice and palm oil). Looking forward, abundant supplies across major industrial commodity markets, due in part to large investments during the decade-long price boom, and softening demand from major emerging markets point to a protracted period of low prices ahead. This would prolong headwinds to commodity exporters in 2016. Capital flows: still under pressure. Capital inflows to developing countries dipped to a post-crisis low in 2015, slowing to an estimated 3.1 percent of GDP ($763 billion), down from 5.3 percent in 2014 ($1.3 trillion). Global investors pulled a record net $76 billion from emerging market bond and equity funds last year, more than in the global financial crisis of 2008 ($69 billion, Figure 2.A). 2015 was the third consecutive year of net fund outflows as tumbling commodity prices, rating downgrades, and concerns about rising borrowing costs hit emerging market assets. Emerging market funds started 2016 with continued outflows, as risk aversion and growth concerns intensified ($1.6 billion were pulled out of equity and $238 million out of bond funds in the first two weeks of January). FDI generally showed greater resilience in 2015, but continued weakness in commodity prices could discourage further investment in mining and exploration, while recent bouts of volatility could raise risk aversion and add further headwinds to capital flows. Equity markets: rough start of the year. Global equity markets lost 11 percent thus far this year to their lowest level since mid-2013, which if sustained, would be the worst monthly decline since October 2008. Most emerging stock- market indexes were affected by deteriorating economic prospects and heightened risk aversion, but large declines were also registered across major advanced markets including the United States, the Euro Area, and Japan (Figure 2.B). Perceived safe-haven assets such as U.S. treasuries, German Bunds, the Japanese yen, and gold were in increasing demand during the recent episode of volatility. Currency adjustments: ongoing. Diverging monetary policies among major central banks, declining commodity prices, and weakening growth prospects in emerging and developing countries continued to drive large currency movements in recent months. The U.S. dollar strengthened further, as the U.S. Federal Reserve started raising policy 3 January 2016 interest rates in December, while monetary policy eased further in the Euro Area, Japan, and China. Currencies of key commodity exporters (including South Africa, Russia, Brazil, Colombia and Malaysia) fell to multi-year lows at the start of 2016 as a result of a strong dollar and weak commodity prices (Figure 2.C). Currency depreciations can play a buffer role for countries facing a significant terms of trade shock, but can also contribute to balance sheet pressures in the presence of large dollar-denominated liabilities. The post-crisis boom in credit and international bond issuances has left many emerging market corporates highly leveraged and vulnerable to a combination of rising borrowing costs and depreciating currencies. Credit growth has slowed throughout 2015, but debt stocks remain elevated and refinancing pressures could intensify in 2016 (Figure 2.D). United States: continued but uneven recovery. Despite some softening in activity in the final quarter of 2015, conditions remain in place for a sustained consumption-led recovery, supported by robust employment growth, still- accommodative financing conditions and low oil prices. Non-farm payroll job creation averaged more than 220,000 per month in 2015, and ended the year on a strong note, reaching 292,000 in December. Improvements in the housing market and prospects of strengthening wage growth amid tight labor market conditions also support a positive outlook. However, manufacturing activity showed renewed signs of weakness in recent months as the U.S. dollar strengthened, external demand remained subdued and inventories were adjusted down. Growth is expected to pick up in early 2016 and is currently projected to average 2.7 percent for the year as a whole. In a widely anticipated move, the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) increased the target range of the U.S. federal funds rate by 25 basis points on December 16, 2015. Expectations around the first interest rate hike were well managed, and the immediate market reaction was benign. Going forward, the pace of interest rate increases is expected to be gradual and slower than in previous tightening cycles, reflecting low inflation expectations and concerns about appreciation pressures weighing on growth. Bond markets continue to expect a significantly lower trajectory for U.S. interest rates than the FOMC, which could contribute to sudden adjustment in yields and renewed bouts of volatility. Euro Area: gradually healing. Both domestic demand and exports have strengthened in 2015. Growth in 2016 is expected to increase further to 1.7 percent, from an estimated 1.5 percent in 2015. Diminishing fiscal consolidation and healing labor markets are underpinning domestic demand, while the ECB’s quantitative easing program is contributing to improved credit conditions. The sizable influx of asylum seekers, security concerns after the terrorist attacks in Paris, and policy uncertainty in Greece are not expected to derail the recovery but are sources of risk. Over the medium term, concerns about low potential growth, high unemployment, and large public debt persist. Japan: weak momentum. Growth remained subdued in 2015, averaging 0.8 percent for the year as a whole. Private consumption contracted and investment stagnated, while export growth was held back by weak regional trade. Growth is still expected to gradually recover to 1.3 percent in 2016, supported by policy stimulus, declining oil prices, rising profits, and tight labor market conditions. The recently negotiated TPP agreement might provide a welcome impetus to exports and market liberalization. Growth is expected to weaken again in 2017 as the government moves ahead with a second sales tax hike in April that year. Risks: tilted to the downside. Although it is still a low-probability scenario, a faster-than-expected slowdown in China combined with a more protracted deceleration in other major emerging markets would weaken growth prospects across the developing world and could derail a fragile recovery in advanced economies. According to recent estimates presented in the January 2016 Global Economic Prospects report, a 1 percentage point growth slowdown in the BRICS could result in a 0.8 percentage point decline in growth in other emerging market countries over a span of two years and slow growth by 0.4 percentage point globally (Figure 2.E). Such spillovers would transmit through a number of channels. China is deeply integrated into supply chains in East Asia and the Pacific, and constitutes a large export market for commodity-exporting countries in Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America. Commodity-exporting countries, in turn, are important export markets and sources of finance for commodity importing countries in their respective regions. A synchronous BRICS slowdown could have more pronounced global spillover effects if it is combined with financial stress. In a scenario where BRICS growth continues to be downgraded as in previous years and emerging market bond spreads suddenly rise (by 100 basis points), growth in other emerging and frontier markets could be curtailed by 1.3-1.5 percentage points in 2016. This could set back global growth by about 1 percentage point, to as low as 2 percent in 2016-17. Many emerging and developing countries have seen their fiscal and reserve buffers depleted in the post-crisis period, reducing their ability to use counter-cyclical measures to support growth in a downturn (Figure 2.F). 4 January 2016 Figure 1: Global Economic Prospects and Emerging Market Slowdown A. Emerging and frontier market growth B. Contribution to global growth revisions Growth, percent 1990-2008 Average Percentage points 8 China Brazil 2003-08 Average Russia Other com. exp. 6 Other com. imp. G3 0.0 4 -0.1 2 -0.2 0 -0.3 2015 2010 2012 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2011 2013 2014 2015 -0.4 Emerging Markets Frontier Markets 2015 2016 2017 C. Global growth and contribution D. China’s exchange rate Global growth and contribution, percent Index=100 in Jan 2015 Commodity exporters 105 4 Other commodity importers United States, Euro Area and Japan 0.5 100 3 0.9 0.7 0.4 1.1 2 1.3 95 1.6 Effective exchange rate 1.5 U.S. Dollar 1 1.8 1.2 90 0.9 Jan-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Mar-15 Oct-15 Feb-15 Apr-15 May-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 0.7 0 1993-00 2001-07 2010-14 2015-18 E. Contribution to global import growth F. Commodity prices Percentage point Nominal index, 2011M1=100 2014 2015 0.8 Energy 140 Agricultural raw materials 0.6 Metals 120 0.4 100 0.2 80 0 60 -0.2 40 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Apr-11 Oct-11 Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Oct-13 Apr-14 Apr-15 -0.4 China Russia Brazil Sources: World Bank; Haver Analytics B: Contribution to global growth revisions measured in constant 2010 U.S. dollars. “Other Com. Exp.”stands for other commodity exporters, and excludes Russia and Brazil; “Other Com. Imp.” stands for other commodity importers, and excludes China and G3 (Euro Area, Japan, and United States). E: Import volumes for goods and non-factor services. 2015 are estimates. F: Last observation is December 2015. 5 January 2016 Figure 2: Financial Markets and Risks A. Net flows to emerging market funds B. Equity price indexes US$, billions Percent 200 Equity funds Bond funds 0 -5 150 -10 100 -15 50 -20 Since July 2015 -25 2016 to date 0 -30 India Thailand U.S. Russia Europe Philippines Colombia Mexico Indonesia Malaysia Brazil Japan Turkey China -50 -100 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 C. Exchange rates against USD D. Credit growth and private debt Percent Percent of GDP Year-on-year, percent Since July 2015 2016 to date 130 Private debt 22 5 Credit growth (RHS) 0 20 120 -5 -10 18 110 -15 16 -20 100 -25 14 -30 90 12 Brazil Indonesia Malaysia Mexico Turkey Japan Russia South Africa Colombia India China Euro Area 80 10 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 E. Impact of a 1 percentage point F. General government sustainability gaps decline in BRICS on growth Percentage point Number of developing countries with negative EM excl. BRICS Global sustainability gaps 0.0 2002 2007 2015 -0.2 70 -0.4 60 50 -0.6 40 -0.8 30 -1.0 20 -1.2 10 -1.4 On Impact 1 Year 2 Years 0 Sources: Bank for International Settlements, World Bank QEDS database. D: GDP-weighted average of credit growth to and debt-to-GDP ratios of households and non-financial corporation in BRICS and MIMT (BRICS are Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa; MIMTs are Mexico, Indonesia, Malaysia and Turkey). Latest observation is 2015Q2. E: Weighted average of the responses of other emerging market and global GDP to a 1 percentage point decline in growth of BRICS countries’ GDP, according to a vector-autoregression models presented in Chapter 3 of the January 2016 Global Economic Prospects. Confidence bands span the 16th-84th percentiles. EM (excluding BRICS) comprises Chile, Colombia, Czech Republic, Egypt, Hungary, Indonesia, Korea, Morocco, Mexico, Malaysia, Pakistan, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Thailand, Turkey, United Arab Emirates. F: Sustainability gap is defined as the difference between the actual overall balance and the debt-stabilizing overall balance at current growth rates. A negative sustainability gaps indicates an unsustainable stock of debt and deficit. Figure reflects data for the 123 developing countries with available data for all three years shown. 6 January 2016 Special Focus: Spillovers in Europe and Central Asia Economic openness: vulnerability to spillovers. The Europe and Central Asia (ECA) region is generally very open, despite wide within-region heterogeneity. This reflects increasing integration with the European Union (EU), especially the western part of the ECA region, and the presence of several large commodity-exporting economies in the east that are vulnerable to global commodity price fluctuations. Russia is a prominent source of within-region trade and remittance flows, especially with the Eastern part of the region. Integration with Turkey—the second largest regional economy—is limited. While spillovers from Russia are substantial, those from Turkey are modest. Still, spillovers from the rest of the world are far larger than spillovers from the largest economies within the region (see ECA section of January 2016 Global Economic Prospects). Indicators of openness: trade, FDI, remittances and portfolio flows. Despite wide variation, the majority of ECA countries are highly open, with imports and exports equivalent to 74 percent of GDP on average, and remittance inflows of about 1.5 percent of GDP on average. While FDI inflows are also substantial, most countries in the region (with the exception of Turkey) receive limited portfolio inflows. Links with the European Union are most prominent (Figure 3.A), as many countries in the western part of the region are members of the EU or have European Association Agreements in place. This has deepened supply-chain integration and encouraged labor mobility. From negligible levels in the 1990s, the Euro Area became the largest export destination for many ECA countries (Figure 3.B), accounting for an average of over 50 percent of total trade in 2014. The Euro Area also accounts for much of the region’s FDI (Figure 3.C). Within-region ties to Russia are particularly strong: Trade and remittance flows account for 30 percent of trade and 62 percent of remittances in Central Asian countries (Figure 3.D). Direct economic ties with Turkey are predominantly trade-based and have grown rapidly from a low base. Thus, the share of exports to Turkey rose to 20 percent of total trade for Georgia and 7 percent for Bulgaria, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. Estimating spillovers: modelling approach. To capture direct and indirect effects, a Bayesian structural vector auto- regression model is estimated for 1998Q1-2015Q2. For each country, the variables included are as follows, in the order they are used in the model: growth in the rest of the world; the JPMorgan Emerging Market Bond Index; growth in Russia and Turkey; trade-weighted average commodity prices; growth in the affected country; and the real effective exchange rate of the affected country. The exercise focuses on estimating the impact on developing ECA of growth shocks in the two largest economies in the region—Russia and Turkey—as well as in the rest of the world. Spillover results: Russia and Turkey. Strong within-region trade, finance and remittance links are reflected in sizeable spillovers, especially from Russia (Figure 3.E). Russian growth shocks have sizeable effects across the region. The estimates suggest that a 1 percentage point decline in Russian growth reduces growth in other ECA countries by an average of 0.3 percentage point over two years. The estimated impact is larger in countries in the South Caucasus. Our estimates suggest that growth shocks in Turkey have smaller, and mostly local, repercussions for countries in the neighborhood. A 1 percentage point decline in growth in Turkey reduces growth in other ECA countries by an average of 0.1 percentage point over two years. The estimated impact is larger in Bulgaria and Romania where a 1 percentage point decline in growth in Turkey reduces growth by 0.5 and 0.2 percentage point, respectively, over two years. Spillovers from Turkey to other ECA countries are smaller. Spillover results: advanced market economies. Estimated spillovers from the rest of the world are larger than those from either Russia or Turkey. A 1 percentage point decline in the rest of the world growth would reduce growth in ECA countries by 1.7 percentage points over two years (Figure 3F). This broadly reflects the deep integration of the western part of the region with the Euro Area, and of the eastern part of the region with global commodity markets. Policy response: diversification and market liberalization. Planned infrastructure investment into regional road and rail corridors, combined with continued trade liberalization and improved business environments, could help diversify the region’s trade partners and sources of finance. Barriers to open markets are particularly significant in Central Asia. Reducing these barriers would spur productivity and increase resilience to external shocks. 7 January 2016 Figure 3: spillovers in Europe and Central Asia A. Regional Integration B. Exports to the Euro Area, Russia and the U.S. Percent of total Percent of total exports 100 80 Euro Area Russia United States Euro Area US UK ECA 80 60 60 40 40 20 20 0 0 Montenegro Turkey Albania Armenia Kazakhstan Ukraine Tajikistan Hungary Belarus Romania Serbia Bulgaria Moldova, Rep. Azerbaijan Georgia Macedonia, FYR liabilities FDI Portfolio Foreign claims Remittances destinations Export C. FDI inflows from the Euro Area, Russia and the U.S. D. Remittances from the Euro Area, Russia and the U.S. Percent of total Percent of total 100 Euro Area Russia United States 100 Euro Area Russia United States 80 80 60 60 40 40 20 20 0 0 Kyrgyz Republic Kazakhstan FYR Macedonia Serbia Belarus Ukraine Turkey Slovak Republic Romania Moldova Bulgaria Czech Republic Slovenia Albania Russia Armenia Hungary Montenegro Georgia Kosovo Azerbaijan Turkey Kosovo Uzbekistan Albania Kyrgyz Rep. Armenia Tajikistan Romania Georgia Ukraine Moldova, Rep. Bulgaria Bosnia Herz. Montenegro E. Growth spillovers from Russia and Turkey F. Growth spillovers from the rest of the world Percentage point Percentage point 0.5 1 0 0 -0.5 -1 -2 -1 -3 -1.5 -4 -2 -5 Slovak Republic Serbia Turkey Serbia Bulgaria Romania Poland Ukraine Ukraine Armenia -6 Romania Lithuania Serbia Ukraine Slovak Republic Bulgaria Croatia Armenia Poland Kazakhstan Czech Republic Turkey Estonia Hungary Turkey Russian Federation Source: IMF World Economic Outlook; IMF International Financial Statistics; IMF Direction of Trade Statistics; IMF Coordinated Direct Investment Survey; World Bank; International Investment Position; World Tourism Organization; UN Comtrade. . ECA countries include: Albania, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Georgia, Hungary, Kazakhstan, Former Yuguslav Republic of Macedonia, Moldova, Montenegro, Poland, Romania, Serbia, Tajikistan, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, and Russia. Portfolio liabilities denote stock of portfolio investment liabilities. B.C. Euro Area is considered outside the region. E. Cumulative impact response after two years of each country’s real GDP growth to a 1 percentage point decline in Russia’s or Turkey’s growth. Based on estimates of a structural VAR using data from 1998Q2-2015Q2. F. Cumulative impulse response after two years to a 1 percentage point decline in growth in the rest of the world, scaled by cumulative impulse response of growth in source country of shock. Solid bars represent the median responses and the errors bars represent the 33-66 percent confidence bands. 8 January 2016 Major data releases Major Data Releases 15 December, 2015-15 January 2016 Upcoming releases: 16 January, 2016-15 Febuary 2016 Country Date Indicator Period Actual Forecast Previous Country Date Indicator Period Previous Turkey 12/15/2015 Unemployment Rate SEP 10.3% 10.3% 10.1% UK 1/19/2016 CPI (Y/Y) DEC 0.1% Eurozone 12/16/2015 PMI Composite DEC 54.0 54.0 54.2 South Africa 1/21/2016 Wholesale Sales (Y/Y) NOV 1.6% Brazil 12/16/2015 Retail Sales (Y/Y) OCT -5.6% -8.8% -6.2% Japan 1/21/2016 PMI Manufacturing JAN 52.60 South Africa 12/17/2015 PPI (Y/Y) NOV 0.1% 0.3% 0.9% United States 1/22/2016 PMI Manufacturing JAN 51.20 Turkey 1/4/2016 CPI (Y/Y) DEC 8.8% 8.3% 8.1% Malaysia 1/22/2016 Unemployment Rate DEC 3.1% Germany 1/4/2016 CPI (Y/Y) DEC 0.3% 0.6 % 0.4% Philippines 1/27/2016 GDP (Q/Q) Q4 1.1% Germany 1/5/2016 Unemployment Rate DEC 6.3% 6.3% 6.3% UK 1/28/2016 GDP (Q/Q) Q4 0.4% China 1/5/2016 PMI Composite DEC 49.4 50.0 50.5 Brazil 1/28/2016 Unemployment Rate DEC 7.5% United States 1/6/2016 PMI Composite DEC 54.0 54.0 55.9 United States 1/29/2016 GDP (Q/Q) Q4 2.0% Germany 1/7/2016 Retail Sales (Y/Y) NOV 2.3% 3.0% 2.5% Brazil 2/1/2016 PMI Manufacturing JAN 45.60 Germany 1/7/2016 Retail Sales (Y/Y) NOV 2.3% 3.0% 2.5% Turkey 2/3/2016 CPI (Y/Y) JAN 8.8% Brazil 1/7/2016 Industrial Production (Y/Y) NOV -12.4% -12.0% -11.2% United States 2/5/2016 Unemployment Rate JAN 5.0% Mexico 1/7/2016 CPI (Y/Y) DEC 2.1% 2.1% 2.2% Indonesia 2/9/2016 GDP (Q/Q) Q4 3.2% Finland 1/8/2016 Industrial Production (Y/Y) NOV -1.7% -1.5% -1.0% South Africa 2/9/2016 Unemployment Rate Q4 25.5% Brazil 1/13/2016 Retail Sales (Y/Y) NOV -7.8% -9.0% -5.7% United States 2/9/2016 Wholesale Sales (Y/Y) DEC -4.6% Australia 1/13/2016 Unemployment Rate DEC 5.8% 5.9% 5.8% Eurozone 2/12/2016 GDP (Q/Q) Q4 0.3% Finland 1/14/2016 CPI (Y/Y) DEC -0.2 % -0.2 -0.2% Japan 2/14/2016 GDP (Q/Q) Q4 -0.2% Turkey 1/15/2016 Unemployment Rate OCT 10.6% 10.5% 10.4% Thailand 2/14/2016 GDP (Q/Q) Q4 1.0% Other reports from the Prospects Group Policy Research Note No.2: The Coming U.S. Interest Rate Tightening Cycle: Smooth Sailing or Stormy Waters? Policy Research Note No.3: Ending Extreme Poverty and Sharing Prosperity: Progress and Policies Policy Research Note No.4: Slowdown in Emerging Markets: Rough Patch or Prolonged Weakness? Global Economic Prospects – January 2016: Spillovers Amid Weak Growth Recent World Bank Working Papers Global supply chains and trade policy How does long-term finance affect economic volatility ? Earnings premiums and penalties for self-employment and informal employees around the world The World Banks classification of countries by income (English) Recent World Bank Country Updates Aging in East Asia and Pacific Croatia Macro Monitoring Report - December 2015 Ethiopia's Growth Miracle: What Will It Take to Sustain It? Indonesia Economic Quarterly: Reforming amid uncertainty. December 2015 Serbia Economic Update - December 2015 Russia Monthly Economic Developments - January 2016 Turkey – Regular Economic Note – January 2016 9 January 2016 Economic Developments indicators expressed as %ch y/y, except Industrial Production quarterly figures are %ch q/q, annualized 2014 2015 2014 2015 2012 2013 2014 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Industrial Production, S.A. World 2.9 2.5 3.3 2.2 2.4 4.0 1.7 1.3 1.7 3.4 3.3 2.5 3.3 3.0 2.8 3.3 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.1 2.6 2.1 2.5 1.8 2.1 1.4 High Income Countries 0.6 0.3 2.0 0.3 0.5 3.0 2.2 -1.5 0.4 2.1 2.2 1.0 1.5 1.6 1.3 1.8 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.1 0.8 1.3 0.9 1.3 0.8 0.8 -0.1 Developing Countries 6.8 5.9 5.2 5.0 5.2 5.3 1.0 5.2 3.5 5.3 5.0 4.8 5.9 5.0 5.0 5.4 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.8 4.6 3.7 4.2 3.2 3.9 3.3 East Asia and Pacific 9.3 9.0 7.5 7.8 6.5 8.3 2.0 6.8 5.0 8.5 7.6 6.5 7.5 7.0 6.4 7.4 6.5 6.1 5.8 5.9 5.6 6.2 5.6 5.8 5.1 5.3 5.9 East Asia x. China 6.0 5.6 3.0 7.1 3.9 8.6 -1.9 3.1 3.6 4.9 0.5 3.3 5.4 4.0 3.0 4.9 4.2 2.2 6.5 5.1 1.8 3.1 4.0 3.8 2.1 4.1 4.5 Europe and Central Asia 9.7 2.3 3.3 1.1 1.4 0.1 2.6 3.9 3.6 2.9 3.5 2.2 2.6 2.6 1.9 1.2 -0.5 1.8 2.6 1.4 1.1 3.4 0.7 4.1 2.8 3.8 4.0 Latin America and Caribbean -0.3 1.2 -0.3 -3.5 -0.3 -1.7 -4.6 -4.4 -5.4 -3.1 -0.5 -0.5 -1.0 -0.5 -1.6 -1.0 -2.3 -2.6 -2.8 -2.9 -3.3 -2.1 -3.6 -3.9 -4.6 -5.2 -6.0 Middle East and N. Africa 6.0 -7.7 -1.4 0.1 28.0 0.8 -18.1 12.4 - -7.3 -2.5 9.2 17.8 11.0 13.5 7.6 -0.7 -0.6 5.6 4.4 6.7 2.0 1.3 1.2 - - - South Asia 1.1 1.8 2.6 5.0 0.8 -1.7 12.3 8.2 2.1 4.7 1.5 2.0 3.6 -1.5 5.9 4.2 3.4 5.1 3.4 4.4 4.3 5.6 4.2 7.4 3.7 10.6 -2.4 Sub-Saharan Africa 3.2 1.1 0.2 1.7 -6.5 10.7 -1.8 -5.6 5.7 0.7 -7.3 -0.7 6.1 1.5 -0.6 0.5 -1.1 0.1 3.6 -1.7 -0.4 -1.0 5.1 0.7 0.6 -0.7 -1.7 1 Inflation, S.A. High Income Countries 2.3 2.1 2.8 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.4 2.0 1.6 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1 2.9 2.8 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.3 1.3 1.3 Developing Countries 5.9 6.3 5.3 5.5 5.4 5.0 5.0 5.4 5.2 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.2 5.0 4.8 5.0 4.7 5.0 5.2 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.3 East Asia and Pacific 2.9 3.0 2.6 2.9 2.5 2.2 1.8 2.0 2.2 3.0 2.7 2.5 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.3 1.5 2.0 2.0 2.2 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.0 1.7 1.8 Europe and Central Asia 9.0 6.5 7.9 7.9 8.5 8.9 9.0 10.7 9.8 8.0 8.2 8.6 8.7 9.0 9.2 8.6 8.3 9.0 9.8 11.0 10.9 10.0 9.6 9.7 10.1 10.0 10.8 Latin America and Caribbean 4.8 5.1 5.1 4.9 5.3 5.3 5.8 6.4 6.9 5.0 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.4 5.7 6.2 6.1 6.3 6.6 6.9 6.9 6.9 7.2 7.5 Middle East and N. Africa 13.8 19.2 10.9 9.7 10.0 10.7 10.8 11.4 9.0 9.1 9.9 10.2 10.1 10.4 10.5 11.2 10.3 10.9 11.1 11.3 11.7 11.2 9.6 8.7 8.6 8.0 7.6 South Asia 9.2 9.4 6.6 7.8 6.7 4.2 5.0 4.8 3.7 6.8 7.3 6.9 5.8 4.8 3.5 4.4 5.1 5.1 4.9 4.6 4.8 5.1 3.5 3.6 4.1 4.7 5.1 Sub-Saharan Africa 10.8 8.1 9.0 9.2 9.8 8.5 7.5 8.3 8.7 9.7 10.0 10.2 9.4 8.4 8.4 8.6 7.6 7.5 7.5 7.9 8.2 8.9 8.7 8.6 8.7 8.8 8.8 1 Inflation is calculated as the GDP-weighted average for all groups. Trade and Finance indicators expressed as %ch y/y, except International Reserves are %ch p/p and trade quarterly figures are %ch q/q, annualized 2014 2015 2014 2015 2012 2013 2014 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Exports, Nominal, US$, S.A. World 0.3 1.8 1.0 4.0 0.8 -15.9 -27.4 -1.4 -5.6 3.4 5.2 0.8 2.6 -1.4 -4.5 -4.1 -11.0 -7.3 -13.3 -13.6 -13.5 -8.1 -13.7 -13.5 -12.3 -12.5 -10.7 High Income Countries -1.2 1.3 0.7 1.2 -3.2 -19.0 -28.9 0.4 -7.1 2.8 4.8 -0.5 0.8 -3.4 -6.4 -5.7 -12.8 -13.5 -13.7 -15.2 -15.4 -9.9 -15.0 -15.0 -13.2 -13.1 -10.7 Developing Countries 4.0 3.2 1.9 10.9 10.8 -8.5 -24.2 -5.4 -2.0 5.0 6.2 3.7 7.0 3.5 0.1 -0.3 -7.1 8.4 -12.4 -9.8 -9.1 -3.9 -10.7 -10.1 -10.4 -11.2 -10.7 East Asia and Pacific 6.2 6.4 4.6 18.9 17.6 -1.0 -15.7 -11.2 3.4 7.9 11.5 8.2 12.5 8.0 3.5 5.0 -3.4 29.5 -11.5 -6.5 -4.3 0.7 -7.8 -6.2 -5.4 -7.9 -7.6 Europe and Central Asia 1.9 -0.2 -1.5 -7.7 -11.1 -27.8 -16.8 -14.7 -9.3 3.6 3.4 -4.6 -2.5 -6.2 -10.8 -14.0 -13.8 -16.4 -18.4 -16.5 -21.3 -15.7 -20.9 -16.4 -14.7 -14.2 -15.4 Latin America and Caribbean 2.5 0.6 0.0 8.1 2.4 -22.9 -18.2 -3.5 -9.0 2.4 6.4 0.6 1.1 -3.5 -7.4 -6.1 -7.8 -12.3 -5.5 -11.9 -14.5 -7.1 -11.2 -16.0 -14.2 -11.0 -11.2 Middle East and N. Africa 5.6 -11.1 -7.5 -1.6 26.2 -11.5 -59.9 - - -8.8 -18.1 -1.7 2.0 16.5 -3.4 -10.4 -15.5 -21.8 -18.1 -11.1 - - - - - - - South Asia -1.8 6.2 2.7 11.5 -0.6 -3.5 -44.8 7.1 -14.1 8.9 -0.3 1.3 0.1 -6.3 9.1 -0.7 -7.5 -12.4 -17.2 -12.8 -16.7 -10.1 -10.4 -15.8 -22.4 -14.6 -22.5 Sub-Saharan Africa -2.5 -1.1 -5.5 -12.6 -0.6 -19.0 -53.8 12.5 -22.2 -2.8 -1.6 -10.0 -1.9 -7.6 -7.5 -8.8 -25.4 -28.7 -18.9 -23.4 -15.35 -19.7 -22.9 -21.2 -28.7 - - Imports, Nominal, US$, S.A. World 0.6 1.6 1.2 -1.4 -0.7 -15.0 -29.7 -2.6 -4.7 5.1 3.1 0.9 3.9 -2.1 -4.1 -3.4 -13.3 -12.9 -11.4 -14.2 -15.2 -9.0 -13.1 -12.6 -15.3 -13.2 -10.20 High Income Countries -1.1 0.5 1.8 0.5 -4.1 -17.2 -27.8 -2.4 -4.0 6.0 5.5 0.7 2.4 -3.4 -5.3 -3.8 -13.1 -13.0 -12.4 -14.9 -15.2 -10.2 -14.6 -12.1 -13.6 -11.8 -9.39 Developing Countries 4.9 4.1 0.0 -5.8 7.8 -9.9 -33.9 -3.1 -6.4 3.1 -2.1 1.3 7.3 0.8 -1.3 -2.3 -13.6 -12.7 -8.9 -12.3 -15.2 -6.0 -9.4 -13.8 -19.3 -16.4 -12.21 East Asia and Pacific 5.6 6.1 -0.4 -12.8 9.4 -12.8 -36.6 0.7 -3.6 3.0 -3.1 -0.3 6.7 2.6 -5.4 -4.6 -17.2 -16.9 -9.5 -14.0 -15.7 -5.1 -9.0 -14.2 -19.5 -18.1 -8.2 Europe and Central Asia 0.7 2.5 -6.2 -7.8 -7.9 -8.8 -28.8 -19.9 -15.3 -1.9 -11.1 -4.7 -5.5 -8.3 -9.5 -10.1 -15.1 -13.6 -12.7 -17.5 -18.5 -14.4 -15.0 -17.8 -22.7 -14.6 -18.38 Latin America and Caribbean 4.0 3.8 1.8 1.3 4.6 -4.9 -19.0 -16.8 -6.4 4.9 0.7 1.6 8.6 -2.8 2.8 5.5 -7.4 -6.9 -0.4 -10.3 -14.5 -3.6 -9.8 -12.6 -13.6 -13.8 -12.29 Middle East and N. Africa 10.8 4.0 1.4 -6.5 11.8 -18.1 -22.9 - - -2.0 0.5 10.3 5.1 -1.6 -4.2 -2.7 -11.2 -7.0 -11.3 -7.6 - - - - - - - South Asia 4.0 -3.7 1.2 8.7 29.2 -10.7 -53.8 23.6 1.6 8.8 2.6 5.0 23.6 6.6 21.4 -1.4 -12.2 -13.3 -12.8 -7.4 -12.0 -10.3 -9.2 -11.3 -24.0 -18.4 -24.6 Sub-Saharan Africa 4.2 5.8 5.3 19.1 -5.1 10.7 -29.6 - - 5.5 3.8 6.8 9.1 4.9 3.7 8.6 -1.8 2.1 -9.6 -9.8 - - - - - - - International Reserves, US$ High Income Countries 9.2 3.2 -1.9 0.7 -1.9 -1.5 -0.4 0.4 0.0 0.5 -0.5 -0.1 -1.4 -0.7 0.1 -0.8 0.3 -0.1 -0.6 0.8 -0.3 -0.1 -0.6 0.2 0.4 -0.5 -1.04 Developing Countries 5.5 8.7 -0.2 1.5 -1.9 -1.7 -2.5 -0.1 -4.0 0.5 -0.1 0.0 -1.7 -0.7 -0.2 -0.8 -0.7 -0.2 -1.6 0.7 -0.6 -0.2 -1.0 -1.8 -1.3 0.3 -2.01 East Asia and Pacific 4.5 12.2 0.2 1.2 -2.5 -1.4 -2.8 -0.8 -4.9 0.3 -0.5 0.1 -2.1 -0.8 -0.3 -0.4 -0.8 -0.2 -1.9 0.6 -0.9 -0.4 -1.3 -2.4 -1.2 0.4 -2.28 Europe and Central Asia 11.4 3.5 -8.2 4.2 -0.5 -7.2 -6.2 1.0 1.3 1.2 -0.5 1.4 -1.4 -1.5 -1.1 -4.7 -1.7 -2.8 -1.9 0.9 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 -0.8 0.0 -1.49 Latin America and Caribbean 9.9 1.8 3.6 3.3 1.5 -1.8 -0.1 0.7 -3.2 1.3 1.2 0.1 0.2 -0.1 0.4 -2.2 0.4 -0.6 0.0 0.7 -0.1 0.1 -0.4 -0.8 -2.0 -0.8 -1.3 Middle East and N. Africa 5.9 3.0 -10.2 -2.2 -3.8 -2.8 -6.0 1.6 - -0.6 -0.4 -1.1 -2.3 -0.3 0.3 -2.9 -3.3 -0.4 -2.3 1.7 -0.64 0.2 - - - - - South Asia 0.4 -0.2 11.3 5.6 -0.6 2.1 5.9 4.7 -0.8 1.5 1.3 -0.4 -1.4 0.5 -0.3 1.9 1.8 3.2 0.8 1.5 1.7 1.5 -0.5 -0.3 0.0 1.0 -0.7 10 January 2016 1 2014 2015 2014 2015 MRV 2013 2014 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Interest rates and LIBOR (%) U.S. Fed Funds Effective 0.11 0.09 0.09 0.10 0.11 0.13 0.14 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.12 0.12 0.11 0.11 0.12 0.12 0.13 0.13 0.15 0.14 0.12 0.12 0.24 0.36 ECB repo 0.55 0.16 0.12 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.15 0.15 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.00 0.05 US$ LIBOR 3-months 0.27 0.23 0.23 0.24 0.26 0.28 0.31 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.25 0.25 0.26 0.27 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.29 0.32 0.33 0.32 0.37 0.54 0.62 EURIBOR 3-months 0.15 0.00 0.13 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.17 0.16 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 US 10-yr Treasury yield 2.33 2.53 2.49 2.27 1.97 2.15 2.20 2.53 2.41 2.52 2.29 2.32 2.20 1.88 1.98 2.04 1.92 2.19 2.35 2.32 2.14 2.14 2.04 2.26 2.23 2.12 German Bund, 10 yr 1.63 1.24 1.07 0.77 0.35 0.53 0.70 1.19 1.01 1.00 0.87 0.79 0.64 0.45 0.35 0.26 0.16 0.58 0.83 0.76 0.66 0.68 0.55 0.55 0.59 0.51 Spreads (basis points) JP Morgan Emerging Markets 319 330 301 367 425 380 423 282 310 312 349 350 402 443 420 411 388 369 384 397 397 442 437 413 413 442 Asia 219 206 195 202 219 201 233 195 202 187 207 193 206 233 215 208 206 195 203 212 212 250 246 235 235 249 Europe 267 287 262 319 399 336 345 244 274 270 295 293 368 417 396 384 350 327 330 328 328 347 332 294 294 304 Latin America & Caribbean 379 407 366 471 537 487 560 336 373 390 443 455 516 560 531 521 488 471 504 527 527 585 582 553 553 599 Middle East 435 388 369 398 449 420 447 372 379 358 395 388 411 452 452 443 441 409 410 420 420 479 502 503 503 505 Africa 322 323 280 319 373 355 425 278 292 270 307 306 343 385 364 371 361 345 358 374 374 472 490 482 482 558 Stock Indices (end of period) 2 Global (MSCI) 409 417 417 417 425 424 382 423 432 417 419 426 417 410 432 425 436 435 424 427 403 382 411 407 399 374 High-Income ($ Index) 1661 1710 1698 1710 1741 1736 1582 1714 1749 1698 1708 1740 1710 1678 1773 1741 1778 1779 1736 1766 1659 1582 1706 1694 1663 1562 United States (S&P-500) 1848 2059 1972 2059 2068 2063 1920 1931 2003 1972 2018 2068 2059 1995 2105 2068 2086 2107 2063 2104 1992 1920 2079 2080 2044 1939 Euro Area (S&P-350$) 1339 1401 1411 1401 1624 1552 1405 1380 1404 1411 1382 1425 1401 1502 1603 1624 1618 1630 1552 1614 1478 1405 1523 1558 1474 1382 Japan (Nikkei-225) 16291 16292 16174 17674 19207 20236 17388 15621 15425 16174 16414 17460 17451 17674 18798 19207 19520 20563 20236 20585 18812 17388 19083 19921 0 17543 Developing Markets (MSCI) 1003 956 1005 956 975 972 792 1066 1088 1005 1016 1005 956 962 990 975 1048 1004 972 902 882 792 848 814 794 723 EM Asia 446 457 460 457 481 475 391 485 489 460 467 467 457 468 479 481 514 499 475 440 433 391 422 408 404 368 EM Europe 438 297 374 297 302 311 259 403 399 374 369 353 297 286 313 302 338 320 311 293 285 259 273 263 244 227 EM Europe & Middle East 372 257 321 257 258 266 226 340 337 321 314 303 257 247 269 258 286 271 266 253 246 226 235 222 211 195 EM Latin America & Caribbean 3201 2728 3171 2728 2451 2517 1895 3399 3664 3171 3158 3008 2728 2555 2654 2451 2693 2496 2517 2305 2206 1895 2007 1919 1830 1660 Exchange Rates (LCU / USD) High Income Euro Area 0.75 0.75 0.76 0.80 0.89 0.90 0.90 0.74 0.75 0.78 0.79 0.80 0.81 0.86 0.88 0.92 0.92 0.90 0.9 0.91 0.89 0.89 0.89 0.93 0.92 0.92 Japan 97.61 105.89 104.04 114.62 119.16 121.38 122.06 101.75 102.98 107.39 108.02 116.40 119.44 118.33 118.78 120.37 119.53 120.87 123.7 123.39 122.71 120.10 120.01 122.61 121.6 117.26 Developing Brazil 2.16 2.35 2.28 2.55 2.87 3.07 3.55 2.22 2.27 2.34 2.45 2.55 2.65 2.64 2.82 3.15 3.04 3.06 3.1 3.23 3.53 3.89 3.88 3.78 3.87 4.03 China 6.15 6.16 6.16 6.15 6.24 6.20 6.31 6.20 6.15 6.14 6.13 6.13 6.19 6.22 6.25 6.24 6.20 6.20 6.2 6.21 6.34 6.38 6.35 6.37 6.45 6.60 Egypt 6.87 7.08 7.15 7.15 7.49 7.61 7.82 7.15 7.15 7.15 7.15 7.15 7.15 7.27 7.59 7.60 7.60 7.62 7.6 7.81 7.83 7.83 7.91 7.91 7.83 7.83 India 58.55 61.03 60.59 61.96 62.24 63.43 64.97 60.06 60.83 60.87 61.40 61.70 62.77 62.20 62.06 62.48 62.69 63.76 63.8 63.65 65.09 66.16 65.04 66.15 66.54 66.64 Russia 31.86 38.58 36.31 47.98 62.87 52.69 63.62 34.75 36.17 38.01 40.96 46.30 56.67 64.33 64.16 60.13 52.82 50.65 54.6 57.53 66.23 67.10 63.31 65.01 70.19 74.75 South Africa 9.65 10.85 10.77 11.22 11.74 12.08 13.03 10.66 10.66 10.99 11.06 11.09 11.51 11.56 11.58 12.08 11.99 11.97 12.3 12.46 12.94 13.67 13.48 14.14 15.04 16.30 Memo: USA nominal effective rate104.85 110.58 110.75 114.29 120.07 121.87 125.85 109.59 110.79 111.87 112.87 114.06 115.94 118.13 119.99 122.10 121.76 121.40 122.4 123.89 126.13 127.52 126.92 128.15 0.00 131.55 1 MRV = Most Recent Value. 2 MSCI Indices for Asia, Africa, and Europe and C. Asia, for 2008 are calculated from February-December, due to data availability. 3 Change expressed in levels for interest rates and spreads; percent change for stock market and exchange rates. Commodity Prices 2014 2015 2015 MRV 2013 2014 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Oil price, $/b, nominal 1 104 96 100 75 52 60 48 105 100 96 86 77 61 47 55 53 57 63 61 54 45 46 47 43 37 31 Non - Oil Index 2 79 75 74 71 66 64 60 76 75 72 71 72 70 67 66 64 64 65 63 63 59 58 58 56 56 59 3 Metals and Minerals Index 94 87 89 83 74 73 65 90 90 87 84 84 80 75 74 73 73 76 72 67 64 65 63 59 57 56 Baltic Dry Index 4 1215 1103 954 1105 614 629 975 796 944 1123 1101 1332 881 727 539 576 591 596 699 975 1061 889 790 582 510 429 1 Simple average of Brent, Dubai and WTI. 2 Base Date = Jan 3, 2011 due to data availability. The Index component combination in the Weekly tables differs from that of the Pink Sheet. 3 Base Date = Jan 4, 2010 due to data availability. The Index component combination in the Weekly tables differs from that of the Pink Sheet. 4 Base Date = May 1, 1985 11