Document of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No: ICR00004738 IMPLEMENTATION COMPLETION AND RESULTS REPORT (IDA-52390) ON A CREDIT IN THE AMOUNT OF SDR 33.1 MILLION (US$ 50 MILLION EQUIVALENT) TO THE REPUBLIC OF ZAMBIA FOR THE ZAMBIA WATER RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT PROJECT December 14, 2019 Water Global Practice Africa Region CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (Exchange Rate Effective {May 17, 2019}) Currency Unit = SDR 0.72 = US$1 US$ 1.38 = SDR 1 FISCAL YEAR July 1 - June 30 Regional Vice President: Hafez M. H. Ghanem Country Director: Bella Bird Regional Director: Ede Jorge Ijjasz-Vasquez Practice Manager: Catherine Signe Tovey Task Team Leader(s): Anna Cestari ICR Main Contributor: Irene Rehberger Bescos ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS AM Aide Memoire ARAP Abbreviated Resettlement Action Plan CWRAS Country Water Resources Assistance Strategy DPI Department of Planning and Information DWA Department of Water Affairs DWO District Water Officials DWRD Department of Water Resources Development EPBs Environmental Project Briefs EMSP Environmental and Social Management Plan ESMF Environmental and Social Management Framework ESIAs Environmental and Social Impact Assessments FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations IDSP Irrigation Development and Support Project IPR Independent Procurement Review ISR Implementation Status & Results Report IWRM Integrated Water Resources Management IWRM&WEIP Integrated Water Resources Management and Water Efficiency Implementation Plan MMEWD Ministry of Mines, Energy and Water Development MTR Mid-Term-Review MWDSEP Ministry of Water Development Sanitation and Environmental Protection OAS Operations and Advisory Services PAD Project Appraisal Document PAP Project Affected People PAWD Partnership for Africa’s Water Development PIM Project Implementation Manual PMP Pest Management Plan PMT Project Management Team PROCYS Procurement Cycle Tracking System PWO Provincial Water Officials RF Results Framework RPF Resettlement Policy Framework SADC Southern Africa Development Community SNDP Sixth National Development Plan STEP Systematic Tracking of Exchanges in Procurement TA Technical Assistance WAD Water Affairs Department WARMA Water Resources Management Authority WRAP Water Resources Action Program WRDP Water Resources Development Project WRM Water Resources Management ZEMA Zambian Environmental Management Agency ZESCO Zambia Electricity Supply Corporation ZWRDP Zambia Water Resources Development project 2008 NWP 2008 National Water Policy 2011 WRM Act Water Resources Management Act 21 of 2011 3Is framework water Information, Infrastructure and Institutions’ 7NDP 7th National Development Plan for Zambia TABLE OF CONTENTS DATA SHEET .......................................................................................................................... 1 I. PROJECT CONTEXT AND DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES ....................................................... 5 A. CONTEXT AT APPRAISAL .........................................................................................................5 B. SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING IMPLEMENTATION (IF APPLICABLE) .......................................8 II. OUTCOME .................................................................................................................... 10 A. RELEVANCE OF PDOs ............................................................................................................ 10 B. ACHIEVEMENT OF PDOs (EFFICACY) ...................................................................................... 10 C. EFFICIENCY ........................................................................................................................... 13 D. JUSTIFICATION OF OVERALL OUTCOME RATING .................................................................... 14 E. OTHER OUTCOMES AND IMPACTS (IF ANY) ............................................................................ 14 III. KEY FACTORS THAT AFFECTED IMPLEMENTATION AND OUTCOME ................................ 14 A. KEY FACTORS DURING PREPARATION ................................................................................... 14 B. KEY FACTORS DURING IMPLEMENTATION ............................................................................. 16 IV. BANK PERFORMANCE, COMPLIANCE ISSUES, AND RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME .. 19 A. QUALITY OF MONITORING AND EVALUATION (M&E) ............................................................ 19 B. ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL, AND FIDUCIARY COMPLIANCE ..................................................... 20 C. BANK PERFORMANCE ........................................................................................................... 23 D. RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME ....................................................................................... 25 V. LESSONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ............................................................................. 25 ANNEX 1. RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND KEY OUTPUTS ........................................................... 28 ANNEX 2. BANK LENDING AND IMPLEMENTATION SUPPORT/SUPERVISION ......................... 39 ANNEX 3. PROJECT COST BY COMPONENT ........................................................................... 42 ANNEX 4. BORROWER, CO-FINANCIER AND OTHER PARTNER/STAKEHOLDER COMMENTS ... 43 ANNEX 5. SUPPORTING DOCUMENTS (IF ANY) ..................................................................... 44 ANNEX 7- SUPPORTING EVIDENCE ....................................................................................... 49 ANNEX 8. ADEQUACY OF RISK ASSESSMENT AND MITIGATION MEASURES .......................... 54 ANNEX 9. STATUS OF OUTSTANDING MEASURES BY DAMS. ................................................. 57 The World Bank Zambia Water Resources Development Project (P114949) DATA SHEET BASIC INFORMATION Product Information Project ID Project Name P114949 Zambia Water Resources Development Project Country Financing Instrument Zambia Investment Project Financing Original EA Category Revised EA Category Partial Assessment (B) Partial Assessment (B) Organizations Borrower Implementing Agency Ministry of Water Development Sanitation and Republic of Zambia Environmental Protection Project Development Objective (PDO) Original PDO The Project Development Objective is to support the implementation of an integrated framework for development and management of water resources in Zambia. Page 1 of 58 The World Bank Zambia Water Resources Development Project (P114949) FINANCING Original Amount (US$) Revised Amount (US$) Actual Disbursed (US$) World Bank Financing 50,000,000 29,661,907 25,795,504 IDA-52390 Total 50,000,000 29,661,907 25,795,504 Non-World Bank Financing 0 0 0 Borrower/Recipient 0 0 0 Total 0 0 0 Total Project Cost 50,000,000 29,661,907 25,795,504 KEY DATES Approval Effectiveness MTR Review Original Closing Actual Closing 25-Apr-2013 24-Dec-2013 19-Apr-2017 30-Nov-2018 30-Nov-2018 RESTRUCTURING AND/OR ADDITIONAL FINANCING Date(s) Amount Disbursed (US$M) Key Revisions 25-Nov-2018 26.53 Cancellation of Financing Reallocation between Disbursement Categories 30-Nov-2018 26.53 Reallocation between Disbursement Categories KEY RATINGS Outcome Bank Performance M&E Quality Highly Unsatisfactory Unsatisfactory Negligible RATINGS OF PROJECT PERFORMANCE IN ISRs Actual No. Date ISR Archived DO Rating IP Rating Disbursements (US$M) 01 26-Nov-2013 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory .50 Page 2 of 58 The World Bank Zambia Water Resources Development Project (P114949) 02 06-Jul-2014 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 5.50 03 07-Jan-2015 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 7.10 04 12-Oct-2015 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 10.41 05 02-Jun-2016 Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 14.51 06 28-Dec-2016 Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 19.53 Moderately 07 26-Jun-2017 Unsatisfactory 22.53 Unsatisfactory 08 13-Jan-2018 Unsatisfactory Unsatisfactory 26.53 09 25-Jun-2018 Unsatisfactory Unsatisfactory 26.53 10 13-May-2019 Unsatisfactory Unsatisfactory 26.53 SECTORS AND THEMES Sectors Major Sector/Sector (%) Water, Sanitation and Waste Management 100 Public Administration - Water, Sanitation and Waste 24 Management Other Water Supply, Sanitation and Waste 76 Management Themes Major Theme/ Theme (Level 2)/ Theme (Level 3) (%) Urban and Rural Development 8 Rural Development 8 Land Administration and Management 8 Page 3 of 58 The World Bank Zambia Water Resources Development Project (P114949) Environment and Natural Resource Management 191 Climate change 100 Adaptation 100 Renewable Natural Resources Asset Management 16 Biodiversity 8 Landscape Management 8 Environmental policies and institutions 16 Water Resource Management 59 Water Institutions, Policies and Reform 59 ADM STAFF Role At Approval At ICR Regional Vice President: Makhtar Diop Hafez M. H. Ghanem Country Director: Kundhavi Kadiresan Bella Deborah Mary Bird Director: Jamal Saghir Ede Jorge Ijjasz-Vasquez Practice Manager: Jonathan S. Kamkwalala Catherine Signe Tovey Task Team Leader(s): Marcus J. Wishart Anna Cestari ICR Contributing Author: Irene Rehberger Bescos Page 4 of 58 The World Bank Zambia Water Resources Development Project (P114949) I. PROJECT CONTEXT AND DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES A. CONTEXT AT APPRAISAL Context 1. When the Zambia Water Resources Development Project (ZWRDP) was prepared, Zambia was enjoying a decade of rapid economic expansion following a period of low growth and declining per capita incomes. This economic expansion was helped by a relatively stable external environment and improved macroeconomic policies, combined with a major debt reduction effort. However, growth was urban-centred, reflecting an economy focused on the capital-intensive industrial (mining and construction) and service sectors. Meanwhile, rural poverty remained at 74 percent with most of the rural population dependent on subsistence agriculture. The urban-rural income divide was large and growing, with the Gini coefficient increasing from 0.47 in 2003 to 0.52 in 2012 (World Bank,2013; World Bank 2013b). Responding to these challenges, in its “Vision 2030”, the Government of the Republic of Zambia (GRZ) laid out the national development goal of reducing poverty and reaching Middle Income Status by 2030 through inclusive growth and development, with a focus on diversification (Republic of Zambia, 2006). In line with this vision, the Sixth National Development Plan (SNDP) for the period 2011-2015, prioritized sectors such as the agriculture, livestock and fisheries sectors, and promoted investments in water and sanitation among others (Republic of Zambia 2011). 2. Water resources are abundant in Zambia, where water resources per capita per year are estimated at 8700m3 (above Sub-Saharan average 7000m3 and global average 8210 m3). The country’s water resources are exposed to seasonal and spatial variability, often resulting in floods and droughts. Estimates indicate that this hydrological variability cost US$13.8 billion over the period of 1997 to 2007, with a 0.4 percent loss of total growth annually, and a one percent loss of agricultural growth annually (World Bank, 2009). Compounding the hydrological variability, Zambia’s water resources are under increasing pressure from mining and pollution, especially in the Kafue basin. Zambia is strategically located in the head waters of major international rivers such as the Congo and Zambezi. Despite increasing pressures in some basins, its water resources remain largely untapped. The World Bank’s 2009 Country Water Resources Assistance Strategy (CWRAS), which informed the preparation of this project, assessed that the installed hydropower capacity was only at 27 percent of the potential (6000MW), irrigation was underdeveloped with less than 5 percent of arable land under irrigation, and water supply and sanitation access was low with only 37 percent coverage in rural areas. 3. In the 2000s, given the need to address water resources management challenges and unlock water resources development potential in the country, the GRZ through the Ministry of Mines, Energy and Water Development (MMEWD)1 promoted a more efficient framework based on principles of Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM). Two major initiatives, supported by the World Bank and other development partners, were developed to advance the IWRM agenda: a Water Resources Action Program (WRAP) and a Partnership for Africa’s Water Development (PAWD) Project. The WRAP was launched by the Government in 2001 to address issues related to weak national and transboundary water governance, limited human resources capacity, weak water information systems and inadequate stakeholder participation. In 2002, the call for all countries to “develop integrated water resource management and water efficiency (IWRM/WE) plans by 2005” made in the World Summit of Sustainable 1Water sector competences were transferred from the Ministry of Mines, Energy and Water Development to the Ministry of Water Development, Sanitation and Environmental Protection (MWDSEP) in November 2016. Page 5 of 58 The World Bank Zambia Water Resources Development Project (P114949) Development held in Johannesburg, prompted the Government to articulate the IWRM/WE Implementation Plan (IP). In 2003, the Partnership for Africa’s Water Development (PAWD) program was initiated to support the development of IWRM/WE plans in developing countries. The Government of Zambia worked with the WRAP and the support received under the PAWD to develop the IWRM/WE plan for Zambia (Republic of Zambia 2008). 4. The IWRM/WE Implementation Plan (IP) went through an extensive consultation process. Stakeholders consultations and a thorough analytical process identified water resources management and development gaps, and key issues were clustered into four strategic focal areas: (i) Water Resources Management; (ii) Water Resources Infrastructure Development; (iii) Water Supply and Sanitation; and, (iv) Monitoring, Evaluation and Capacity Building (Republic of Zambia 2008). 5. In May 2009, the World Bank, after years of engagement in the sector, particularly through the WRAP, received a request for support from the GRZ. The request outlined a set of interventions that built upon the IWRM/WE IP. In support of the GRZ’s efforts in the sector, the WB with the MMEWD prepared the CWRAS. The World Bank’s 2009 CRWAS provided a framework to direct investments in water resources development and management within six priority thematic areas: (i) consolidation of the reform process and strengthening international water management, (ii) planning and development of water resources, (iii) development of an infrastructure platform, (iv) small scale multi-purpose water resources development, (v) protection and development of water supply systems, and (vi) water resources assessments and scientific services (mainly referred to Water Information systems). 6. An IWRM approach was adopted in the 2010 National Water Policy (2010 NWP), which was translated into enforceable provisions through the Water Resources Management Act 21 of 2011 (2011 WRM Act). The 2011 WRM Act was the first legal update from the 1949 colonial legislation, and its principles include equitable access to water, priority use of water for satisfying human and environmental needs, and public ownership of the country’s water resources. The 2011 WRM Act states that poverty reduction should be addressed as a primary development goal in water management decisions, the catchment is the main water management unit, and Zambia’s water resources shall be used, developed, and controlled in a sustainable manner for the benefit of present and future generations. The 2011 WRM Act established the Water Resources Management Authority (WARMA) as an independent water regulator under the MMEWD. The law also established Catchment Councils and Sub-Catchment Councils, and regulated water resources planning, water quantity and quality, water permitting for both surface and groundwater, water works, and international waters among other issues2. Theory of Change (Results Chain) 7. The project was designed as a framework project with the objective of supporting institutional reforms to improve Zambia's WRM capacity and tools. As such, the components were designed to contribute to this higher objective, and their outputs were aligned accordingly. 2 The Water Resources Management Act, No.21 of 2011, 265. Page 6 of 58 The World Bank Zambia Water Resources Development Project (P114949) Figure 1. Project Theory of Change Project Development Objectives (PDOs) 8. The Project Development Objective was: “to support the implementation of an integrated framework for development and management of water resources in the Recipients Territory”. Key Expected Outcomes and Outcome Indicators 9. The key expected outcomes were the integrated framework for water development (PDO objective #1) and the integrated framework for Water Resource Management (WRM) (PDO objective #2). Accordingly, key indicators for PDO objective #1 were: (i) water storage established in rural communities, (ii) water resources infrastructure investments under preparation, and key indicators for PDO objective #2 were: (iii) improved accuracy of hydrological forecasts (iv) water-permits monitored for compliance. Components Component A: Water Resources Management (IDA contribution US$ 8 million, 100% IDA) 10. The specific activities to be supported under this component were: (a) construction, rehabilitation and upgrading of hydro-meteorological and groundwater monitoring networks; (b) reviewing and upgrading of operating procedures and processes to enhance the capacity of hydro-meteorological and groundwater information management systems and functions; (c) enhancing institutional partnerships and collaborations; (d) reviewing, upgrading and implementing the national hydrological and hydrogeological information management systems, including the integration of spatial and remotely sensed data; (e) developing a flood forecasting and early warning systems; (f) preparing consolidated catchment and basin-level water resources development plans and carrying out associated strategic water assessments, including groundwater; and (g) implementing arrangements and measures for water resource allocation, licensing, revenue and compliance monitoring and management. Component B: Water Resources Development (IDA contribution US$ 30 million (100% IDA) Page 7 of 58 The World Bank Zambia Water Resources Development Project (P114949) 11. The investments to be supported under this component were: (a) developing and rehabilitating small scale water resources infrastructure, such as small dams, weirs, gabions, and other small civil works intended to retain water, reduce erosion, enhance recharge and ensure productive application; (b) updating and climate screening the 1995 Dam Development Master Plan to identify a series of priority investments for further preparation; (c) preparing studies in support of a proposed pipeline of future medium and large scale water resource investments; (d) supporting environmental and social assessments for said future water resource investments; (e) carrying out community mobilization and sensitization for beneficial use as well as O&M; (f) developing and implementing a national dam safety monitoring program; and (g) developing and implementing a nationally managed groundwater development program. Component C: Institutional Support (IDA contribution US$ 12 million, 100% IDA) 12. Component C’s objective was to strengthen the institutional capacity for water resources management and development, for both surface and ground water. As such, this component supported the roll-out of institutional reforms by supporting core functions for both water resources and water development (as described in paragraph 3) in the MMEWD3 and in WARMA in accordance with the provisions of the 2011 Water Act. The component was intended to support the establishment of WARMA, while strengthening the Department of Water Affairs (DWA)4 and the Department of Planning and Information (DPI), provide capacity building, and cover operational costs. The activities under Component C were: (a) supporting the set-up of institutions established under the 2011 WRM Act and implementing their functions; (b) developing rules, plans, strategies and carrying out studies, as needed, for implementing the Water Resources Management Act to ensure the sustainable and equitable development of water resources; (c) building capacity for negotiations, conflict resolution, monitoring and compliance with international water instruments; (d) enhancing inter-agency coordination; (e) financing costs associated with project management, coordination and oversight; and (f) developing a carrying out a training program. B. SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING IMPLEMENTATION (IF APPLICABLE) Revised PDOs and Outcome Targets 13. The PDO, PDO Indicators, components, and outcome targets were not formally revised. Other Changes and Their Implication on the Original Theory of Change 14. Substantial delays were accrued during the first three years of implementation, mainly caused by the ongoing institutional changes in the sector, which delayed decision making, and the weak capacity of the PMT (see paras 57). By MTR, the main investments under implementation were the Lidar data collection and the Hydro-met activity under component A; the construction or rehabilitation of 12 dams5—out of the 100 targeted at appraisal—along with the TA consultancy for dam design and supervision under component B. Training and operating costs were financed under component C. 3 Water sector competences were transferred from the MMEWD to the Ministry of Water Development, Sanitation and Environmental Protection (MWDSEP) in September 2016. 4 The DWA became the Department of Water Resources Development (DWRD) under the Ministerial reform. 5 12 dams were procured and contracted under the project. However, challenges with the foundation at 2 sites, made construction and rehabilitation to only advance at 10 sites. While the initial technical and safeguards reviews were conducted at 12 sites, the remedial action plan focused solely on the 10 dams where construction and rehabilitation advanced. Page 8 of 58 The World Bank Zambia Water Resources Development Project (P114949) 15. Critically, the MTR identified non-compliance with World Bank’s safeguards policies and poor quality of construction of the dams. The MTR recommended urgent corrective measures including: (i) hiring and deploying safeguards specialists to develop and implement all required instruments such as Resettlement Action Plans (RAPs), Environmental Management Plans (EMPs), and dam safety screening to ensure dam size is in line with the Project Appraisal Document (PAD) provisions and OP 4.37 (Dam Safety); (ii) reducing the number of dams to be constructed or rehabilitated under the project from 100 to 20; (iii) using the technical consultant to supervise the 125 ongoing dams as per the contract; and (iv) prior review for all ongoing and future tender for all dams. The reduced scope recommended at MTR would have led to cancellation of USD 10 million, and the modification of the results framework with significant implications on the theory of change. 16. As the project remained out of safeguards compliance, on January 29, 2018, the World Bank issued a Threat of Suspension. Its terms required the GRZ to take three corrective actions to avert suspension: (a) Hiring a safeguards specialist by February 15, 2018; (b) Technical and safeguards review for 12 dams6 by March 15, 2018; (c) Implementing a remedial action plan for the dams under a timeline set by the technical and safeguards review. 17. The MoF responded to the restructuring proposed by the MTR mission on January 31, 2018. It disagreed on the cancellation of USD 10 million, and instead proposed focusing on the infrastructure component, extending the project by 18 months, and dropping some of the activities. By the time the Government’s response was received, the Threat of Suspension had already been issued. 18. Lack of timely implementation of the Corrective Actions required by the Threat of Suspension and diverging views on the scope of the restructuring, led to World Bank’s issuing a Partial Suspension on March 26, 2018, which remained in effect until the project closed on November 30, 2018. During the Partial Suspension, project activities focused solely on remedial works and compliance with safeguards requirements for the 10 dams6, and the project’s trajectory further diverged from the original theory of change. 19. The project was restructured twice in November 2018, just before closure: a. On October 17, 2018, about 6 weeks before project closure, the GRZ requested the cancellation of the undisbursed balance of IDA Credit No. 5239-ZM. In doing so, the GRZ also committed to ensuring safeguards compliance and remediating the sites as obliged under the Financing Agreement (Letter dated November 30, 2018). As per World Bank procedures, the project was restructured to process the cancellation of XDR 14,581,054.71. b. The project was restructured again on November 30, 2018 on request from GRZ (letter dated November 22, 2018) to allocate USD 100,000 equivalent of IDA to pay for compensations to project affected people (PAPs) as identified in the Abbreviated Resettlement Action Plans (ARAPs). 20. Following project closure, GRZ and the World Bank have been working closely on the implementation of all remaining environmental and social safeguards, and on a technical and financial action plan for the safe rehabilitation of the dams to ensure their safe and productive use. Page 9 of 58 The World Bank Zambia Water Resources Development Project (P114949) II. OUTCOME A. RELEVANCE OF PDOs Assessment of Relevance of PDOs and Rating 21. The project’s objectives remain highly relevant at the time of the writing of this ICR. The PDO, “to support the implementation of an integrated framework for development and management of water resources in Zambia,” remains highly relevant for Zambia and for the World Bank. During the ICR mission in February 2019 the MWDSEP confirmed that all the activities not advanced under the project are still a priority for the WRM agenda in the country. The development and management of water resources is also being prioritized under the 7th National Development Plan for Zambia (7NDP), 2017-2021; both have been captured as outcomes (Ministry of National Development Planning 2017). The project is aligned with the World Bank’s Country Partnership Framework (CPF) for Zambia for the period of FY19-FY23 to support Zambia’s development as set forth in the 7NDP and GRZ Vision 2030. In particular, the project is aligned with CPF Objective 1.2 “selected rural communities become more resilient to climate and environmental shocks” under Focus Area I - More Even Territorial Development: Opportunities and Jobs for the Rural Poor; and with CPF Objective 3.2 “trade and infrastructure for economic integration and shared natural resource management with the broader region increases” under Focus Area III - Institutions for Resilience (World Bank 2018). The project is aligned with Objective 1.2 because its PDO was key to climate adaptation. Enhanced information systems, better drought and flood forecasting and developing small-scale irrigation infrastructure, for example, would allow the rural economy to better cope with erratic rainfall, droughts and floods. Further, to achieve Objective 1.1, “Agri-food sector becomes less maize centric, more productive, and better connected to domestic and external markets”—which aims to make agriculture the economic motor of rural growth—the sector must transition away from rain-fed agriculture, for which irrigation infrastructure is needed. The project also contributes to Objective 3.2 as it was intended to establish and strengthen the ability of the GRZ to manage transboundary water resources by creating a specialized unit within the MWDSEP to deal with this issue. B. ACHIEVEMENT OF PDOs (EFFICACY) 22. The objectives of the project as stated in the PDO were twofold, to support the implementation of an integrated framework for 1) development and 2) management of water resources. A table summarizing this section can be found in Annex 6. Assessment of Achievement of Each Objective/Outcome Objective 1: Support for the development of water resources. 23. Developing water resources was supported mainly through activities under Component B, Water Resources Development in the project’s design. Only two sub-components under Component B advanced: (1) developing and rehabilitating small scale water resources infrastructure, and (2) community mobilization and sensitization for beneficial use as well as O&M. Five sub-components under Component B were not implemented. As a result, none of the targets in the intermediate indicators of Component B were met. Further, though 12 out of 100 dams were tendered, only 10 were built or rehabilitated and there are no certificates of full completion for these dams (see map in Annex 7). This, along with challenges related to the quality of the works mean that results for indicator number one is zero dams established of the 100 dams targeted at appraisal. Additionally, the engineering consultant hired by the project prepared designs and bill of quantities for 36 water structures, mostly small dams. These designs were not reviewed nor endorsed by the Bank (see table in Annex 7). Page 10 of 58 The World Bank Zambia Water Resources Development Project (P114949) 24. The quality of the works for the 10 small dams, constructed and rehabilitated, varies. For all, however, rehabilitation measures must be undertaken beyond project closure to ensure their safety and regular operation. Further, ancillary infrastructure, to ensure the full potential of the productive use of the dams was completed only at four sites (Chibalashi, Kawico, Makaba, Nabowa), and was in use, at project closure, in two of these (Chibalashi and Kawico). These measures were identified by the Engineering Consultant in March- April 2018 and confirmed by the World Bank in April 2018. As of December 2019, GRZ, after extensive dialogue with the World Bank, had agreed to address dam safety legacy issues through an additional financing to the World Bank Funded Irrigation Development and Support Project (ISDP). 25. As for the rest of the activities under Component B, it is important to note that the project financed the acquisition of four drilling rigs to be used for exploratory purposes. These drilling rigs were also used for developing community boreholes (see ‘Other Outcomes and Impacts Section’ for more details). 26. Guidelines for Small Dams were prepared by the same consultant who undertook the project’s engineering supervision. Although initially envisaged to be financed under the project, in partnership with the African Development Bank (AfDB), the Guidelines were prepared in parallel to the project and financed under a Water Facility Grant from the AfDB. The final Guidelines were finalized in 2018. The designs of the 36 water structures, mostly small dams, followed and informed the guidelines6, but the guidelines did not inform the design for the 12 dams or the execution of the rehabilitation/construction works for the 10 dams that advanced. Objective #2: Support for the management of water resources. 27. The management of water resources was supported through Component A - Water Resources Management, and partially through Component B, with respect to the establishment of the Dam Committees set up for the 10 dams. 28. Under Component A, four out of seven sub-components were advanced. Only one target initially envisioned in the intermediate indicators for Component A was met: WARMA reported that 406 Water Permits were Monitored for Compliance. The conversions from water rights to permits could not be validated by the Bank. 29. Although it could be argued that 10 operational water user associations were created or strengthened (see Annex 1 for final Results Framework), dam committees are not yet recognized as Water User Associations (WUA) as the bylaw and register of WUAs is not yet in place. 30. A TA consultancy under Component A worked on three sub-components: hydro-meteorological and groundwater monitoring networks, including its operating procedures and processes, and enhancing the institutional partnerships and collaboration. According to WARMA, these reports are now being currently used for the installation of other stations outside the scope of the project. However, the implementation phase of this consultancy was not started under the WRDP, and the quality of implemented works could not be validated. 31. The project financed the acquisition of 100-gauge plates to be installed by WARMA. The majority of these have been installed according to WARMA, the Kabwe catchment office has received 25 gauges plates and as of November 2019, 17 were already installed (site visit conducted on February 2018 and communication on November 2019). 6 ZM-Small Dam Guidelines-Supplementary Guideline For Strengthened Community Involvement; Enhance Gathering Of Community Information; Environmental And Social Safeguarding And Permits; Dam Safety; Project Implementation And Management (Engineering); Site Selection And Preliminary Investigations ; User Demands And Multi-Purpose Optimization; Guidelines for Hydro-Meteorological Assessments & Climate Change Adaptation; Detailed Technical Designs And Construction; Models For Cost Estimates; Planning Framework; Training Program; Private Sector Enhancement. Page 11 of 58 The World Bank Zambia Water Resources Development Project (P114949) 32. The project also contributed to the sub-component aimed at developing flood forecasting and early warning systems” by completing Lidar surveys for Lukanga Swamps, Kafue Flats and Kazungula Area (three flood -prone areas along the Zambezi River and its tributaries). Though data has been collected, software and hardware infrastructure to read and analyse this data was not acquired under the project. 33. Although not financed under this project, contributing towards improved WRM was WARMA’s Hydro-met Project called Integrated Water Resource Management Information Systems financed by KFW (German Financial Cooperation). Under this project 65 river gauging stations were supported, through automated and manual equipment, across the country, and 11 groundwater monitoring wells were installed. 34. Under Component C, three sub-components (out of six) were advanced. Records indicate that three courses on Hydrology, Hydrogeology and Dam Safety were implemented as per the Training Plan, thus partially meeting the target of the “Technical trainings held for water resources staff” indicator. 35. Under Component C, the project also supported setting up “institutions established under the 2011 WRM Act and implementation of their functions” by developing the Human and Institutional Support to MMEWD and WARMA human resources (HR) consultancy, and the acquisition of equipment. 36. Of the 10 reports submitted for the MMED’s approval, through the HR consultancy, only five were accepted.7 These reports formed the basis of, or informed the process leading up to, the operationalization of WARMA, DWRD and MWDSEP. These outputs also guided further sub-reforms, which took place after the initial reforms, leading to the operationalization of WARMA, DPI and DWRD. The reforms had mostly to do with internal restructuring of DWRD and DPI. For example, at the time of formation, DWRD only had two sections, now it has three: Surface Water Development, Groundwater Development, and International Waters. 37. Under Component C’s “financing of costs associated with project management, coordination, and oversight” WARMA, DWRD, and all provincial water offices received different arrays of assets: vehicles, motorcycles, computers, printers, and other office assets, as well as airboats inflatable boats and GPSs. Also, under this activity, the Kabwe sub- catchment office was rehabilitated. 38. Under Component C’s “develop a training program”, the project supported the development of a training program on water development and management and general project management functions (contract management, finance, procurement, etc.). Under this activity, four technical trainings were implemented by the University of Zambia Integrated Water Resources Management Centre (UNZA IWRM), hosted by the Geology Department in the School of Mines. Courses on contract management were implemented by the Association of Consulting Engineers of Zambia. Further, two technical trainings on Geographic Information Systems were conducted during preparation, and accounting courses were also supported by the project. A summary of the courses and participants is provided in Annex 7. 7 These were: (i) the change management plan for the department of water resources development, department of planning and information and the water resources management authority (ii) the staff redistribution and transfer plan for the department of water resources and development and water resources management authority, (iii) the plan for the transfer of assets from the former department of water affairs to the department of water resources development and the water resources management authority (iv) the report on staff inventory and assessment for former department of water affairs, department of planning and information and water resources management authority; and (v) the report on the minimum staffing requirements for department of water resources development, department of planning and information and water resources management authority. Page 12 of 58 The World Bank Zambia Water Resources Development Project (P114949) Justification of Overall Efficacy Rating 39. Since only 3 indicators were partially met, the efficacy rating is negligible. C. EFFICIENCY Assessment of Efficiency and Rating 40. The project adopted a framework approach that meant investments would be identified during implementation; therefore, investment-specific cost-benefit analyses were not conducted at appraisal. To define the expected benefits, the PAD (2013) references: (i) the expected contribution of the project to improving communities’ resilience to hydrological and climatic variability impacts on the Zambian economy that were identified in the WB CWRAS (ii) international studies that estimated economic rates of return of hydro-met monitoring and forecasting investments, and (iii) the “Economic Analysis of the Impacts of Small Dams on Rural Poverty in Zambia” prepared in 2010 in collaboration with GIZ. The latter study found that small reservoirs could play an important function in safeguarding local livelihoods and sustaining communities through multiple uses, such as: (i) enhanced domestic water security, (ii) increased agriculture yields of smallholder farming, (iii) fish farming opportunities, (iv) water for livestock, and (v) other beneficial effects of small dams such as enhanced effects on groundwater recharge, flood impact attenuations, and so on. The study also included a cost-benefit analysis of the construction and rehabilitation of existing small dams of the scale envisioned under the project which showed, under a variety of circumstances, that incomes increased for all beneficiary categories (Nordic Consulting Group 2012). 41. At closure, given that most of the outputs have not been achieved (see Annex 1 and the efficacy analysis), a full economic analysis was not considered necessary or useful. Instead, to inform this report on the project’s impacts on the intended beneficiaries’ livelihoods, a survey was carried out in a sample of communities where the small dams had been constructed or rehabilitated. This survey was conducted in February-March 2019, and included interviews with beneficiaries regarding their situation before and after the project intervention. In this exercise 185 people responded to the questionnaire, and 12 focus group meetings were conducted. Purposive sampling was used to select four out of the ten dam sites—two constructed dams (Chikowa and Chibalashi) and two rehabilitated dams (Nachibanga and Makaba) —as a sample. Of these dams, three were built or rehabilitated on ephemeral/seasonal rivers, and one was built on a perennial river (Chibalashi). Except for Nachibanga, which was designed mainly for livestock purposes, the rest of the dams were designed for irrigation, livestock and fisheries. Ancillary infrastructure was built only in Makaba and Chibalashi. 42. Communities generally reported to have benefited from the project. Eighty-five percent of the people surveyed reported direct or indirect benefits from the infrastructure as access to water improved, mainly during the dry season. However, despite the infrastructure built, at the four sites surveyed, crops continue to be cultivated mainly during the rainy season. Benefits from agriculture vary from site to site: overall, 37 percent of the people surveyed reported an increase of income due to increased crop sales, which they perceived to be linked to the availability of more water from the dam/reservoir. However, only 20 percent of respondents reported to have been assigned a plot in the irrigated area and to be using it. Moreover, and as reflected in the safeguards section, plots inundated by the impoundment of Chibalashi and Chikowa dams have not yet been reassigned or have taken a long time to be reassigned under customary land arrangements, and this has negatively affected households’ income. In terms of livestock, 72 percent of respondents reported to have benefited mainly from water availability year-round and improved access to water for their livestock. Of these, 45.6 percent have seen an increase in income due to livestock Page 13 of 58 The World Bank Zambia Water Resources Development Project (P114949) activity. In terms of fishing, about half of the people surveyed reported to have fish both before and after the project, of these, 72 percent have seen an increase in the fish yield. 43. Most of the outputs envisioned at appraisal were not met as reflected in the efficacy section. Further, the outputs met bear poor outcomes. Therefore, the efficiency of the project is negligible. D. JUSTIFICATION OF OVERALL OUTCOME RATING 44. Although the relevance of the PDOs is high, the efficacy and efficiency are negligible, therefore the overall outcome rating is Highly Unsatisfactory. E. OTHER OUTCOMES AND IMPACTS (IF ANY) Other Unintended Outcomes and Impacts 45. The PAD lists two activities under the “development and implementation of a groundwater monitoring program”: (i) an initial assessment of the groundwater potential of aquifers in terms of quality and quantity through guided exploratory drilling of pilot production and (ii) monitoring of pilot boreholes. During the MTR there was a discussion to convert this activity into a community borehole development program given the project at the time had already acquired four borehole drilling rigs and it was unlikely to complete the activities as envisioned at appraisal. As a consequence, TORs for the wellfield development were under preparation, however the preparation of these were interrupted by the Partial Suspension. 46. Despite the fact that the TORs for the wellfield development were interrupted, findings from the ICR mission revealed that in Lusaka and Central Provinces drilling rigs have been and are being used for communities and for drilling private boreholes. The boreholes are being drilled on a demand basis and a profile for each borehole is being obtained. In Lusaka since 2019, soil samples are being collected and analysed to feed the groundwater database (see sample in Annex 6). Since 2017, 149 boreholes have been drilled in Lusaka. Of these, only 16 have been drilled for communities, schools or hospitals. The rest have been drilled to attend private demand. The fees for drilling amount to 5380 K (equivalent to USD 450). Similarly, in Central Province, a total of 58 boreholes have been drilled, of which about half seem to be for public purposes. The boreholes are being registered by WARMA. 47. The borehole drilling program is developing the groundwater resources for community and private purposes, while building a groundwater database, and covering O&M costs. While within this program some communities are facilitated access to water, negative impacts could arise from over-drilling, or polluting the source in the process. Close coordination with the regulator, WARMA, and guided and informed exploration is therefore advised. III. KEY FACTORS THAT AFFECTED IMPLEMENTATION AND OUTCOME A. KEY FACTORS DURING PREPARATION 48. Alignment with Government priorities: There was a strong rationale to address WRM given Zambia’s priorities, the government agenda, and the ongoing water reforms. In May 2009, the World Bank received a request for support from the Government, outlining a set of interventions that built upon the IWRM/WE IP. In support of the Government’s efforts in the sector, the WB with the MMEWD prepared the CWRAS. The CWRAS prioritized actions for the water sector, that were then developed into the ZWRDP’s components on (i) water resources management, (2) w ater resources development, and (3) institutional support. Page 14 of 58 The World Bank Zambia Water Resources Development Project (P114949) 49. Soundness of background analysis. The preparation team both in the World Bank and MMEWD side was heavily involved in developing the practical knowledge around small dams safety and development, including inventorying and monitoring, and the economic dimensions of small dams8; as well as the preparation of the World Bank safeguards documentation ahead of appraisal9. Training for the MMEWD and other departments to be involved during implementation was also carried out during the preparation phase. 50. Readiness at Implementation and Unused Project Preparation Advance (PPA). Responding to a request from the GRZ for a PPA on November 10, 2011, the World Bank approved a PPA to support project preparation ahead of appraisal10. The PPA was signed on June 15, 2012 for US$ 2,995,000, eight months before project approval in April 2013. Only three percent of the funds were utilized. The first withdrawal application records show that only US$41,707 of the US$500,000 transferred to the designated account were spent on training, field trips allowances, and workshops—and the remainder was reimbursed. Thus, at appraisal, only two activities covered under the PPA were completed: the preparation of an environmental and social management framework for the small-scale water resources infrastructure to be supported by the Project and carrying out training based on a training plan approved by the World Bank. 51. Adequacy of Risk Assessment and Mitigation Measures: At appraisal, risks related to the institutional reforms and the capacity of the implementing agency, as well as those related to fiduciary aspects of the project were rated as Substantial or High, and a detailed risk assessment was conducted as highlighted by the Operations and Advisory Services review in 2015. However, as underlined in the Safeguards Portfolio Review of Zambia (May 2018), the social and environmental safeguards risks were underestimated as Moderate. In retrospect, lack of compliance with the Environmental and Social Management Framework (ESMF) and World Bank safeguard policies constituted one of the biggest challenges and risks during implementation. 52. In addition, although the main risks were correctly identified, their mitigation measures failed, mainly those related to safeguards, the institutional reform, the PMT, and the small dams’ subproject. Further, besides all factors that affected project implementation (see section below), the PAD, FA and PIM were (in retrospect) weak and ambiguous in prescribing some of these mitigation measures. This was compounded by insufficient back stopping with legal covenants or disbursement conditions. 8 Regarding the small dams activity, the World Bank team was directly involved in developing the FAO 2010 Manual on Small Earth Dams in 2010, conducting the “Economic Analysis of the Impacts of Small Dams on Rural Poverty in Zambia” prepared in 2010 in collaboration with GIZ; testing the possibility of using remote sensing for inventorying and monitoring dam storage seasonal variability on existing small dams with the European Space Agency in 2012 (“ Developing an Inventory for Small Water Bodies in Zambia”) ; and assessing the potential for fisheries use of small dams in 2009 with the World Fish Center. 9 Regarding Safeguards Documentation, the Environmental and Social Management Framework was prepared in 2012, and the Pest Management Plan and the Resettlement Policy Framework in February 2013. These documents were prepared by the Department of Water Affairs (Jonathan Kampata, Principal Water Resources Engineer and Albert Chomba, Acting Principal Water Resources Engineer). 10 As per the PPA Financing Agreement, items/activities to be financed were: (a) the preparation of an environmental and social management framework for the small scale water resources infrastructure to be supported by the Project; (b) preparation of guidelines for the construction and rehabilitation of small water resources infrastructure development, (c) preparation of environmental and social impact assessment for all structures related to the project, including resettlement action plan; (d) update of the existing dam development master plan; (e) design and piloting of an integrated water resources and allocation system; (f) hiring of individual consultants, including procurement and other staff as required to support the preparation of the Project including the implementation manual; and (g) carrying out training based on a training plan approved by the World Bank. Page 15 of 58 The World Bank Zambia Water Resources Development Project (P114949) 53. Key Objectives and Design: The project and activities were well aligned with the GRZ’s priorities, and most of the activities not completed in the project are still a priority for the MMEWD. Further, each of the project’s activities were aligned with sector priorities as identified by the CWRAS. However, in retrospect, and as highlighted in the MTR “the project scope was deemed too ambitious at design”, covering too many different and independent activities under each of its three components. B. KEY FACTORS DURING IMPLEMENTATION 54. Institutional reforms and realignment negatively affected the project because of lack of clarity on the roles and responsibilities of the Ministries and departments. WARMA was established and fully operationalized over the period 2012–2015. Further in November 2016, the transition of certain mandates and competences took place from the MMEWD to the newly created Ministry of Water Development, Sanitation and Environmental Protection (MWDSEP)11. During this transition time, staff under the line Ministry (both MMEWD and later MWDSEP) at the central, provincial and district levels, were to be assigned to either WARMA or DWA (from November 2016 onwards, DWRD), also under the Ministry, causing uncertainty. There was also lack of clarity on the roles and responsibilities of the departments, delaying decisions on staff assignments. This translated into project delays, principally through delayed agreements on terms of reference to conduct project activities. This was exacerbated by cooperating partners creating parallel structures to avoid overlapping activities. As the institutional reforms were causing delays at early stages of project implementation, support under Component C was provided to ensure the institutional reforms had a clear road map that ensured the operationalization of WARMA in parallel with developing other line Ministry12 departments such as DWA13 and DPI (ISR 2013; ISR 2014). Compounding the institutional reforms at the sector level, presidential elections were held during project implementation in January 2015 following the President’s death in October 2014, and again in August 2016—further exacerbating delays in decision making. 55. Specifically, these institutional changes had the following effects: a) Component A: Water Resources Management. WARMA was intended to participate in Component A in coordination with the Component A leader. However, WARMA was not part of the PMT throughout the entire implementation period and so coordination was challenging. Furthermore, the institutional reform that involved both DWRD and WARMA delayed progress. b) Component B: Water Resources Development. Provincial Water Officers (PWO) and District Water Officers (DWO) were expected supervise works under Component B. However, as per communications with provincial and districts officials, they lacked staffing and financial resources, making their task challenging. All decisions on extensions, cost variations, or other contract management issues, were centralized and if costs variations were above ZMW 50,000, these were to be approved by a Ministerial Procurement Committee. These caused significant delays. PWOs and DWPs signaled difficulties in the ground accessing funds for logistics and supervision, and operational costs came to a stop in Q2 2015. And finally, the logistics related to wide distribution of project sites across Zambia made supervision by an individual consultant difficult. 56. The Project Management Team (PMT) had weak implementation capacity, including: a) Lack of familiarity with WB requirements. Although the MMEWD was familiar with World Bank 11 Republic of Zambia. 2016. Government Gazette No. 6526- November 2016. 12 Water sector competences were transferred from the MMEWD to the Ministry of Water Development, Sanitation and Environmental Protection (MWDSEP) in November 2016. 13 In this Ministerial reform, DWA became DWRD. Page 16 of 58 The World Bank Zambia Water Resources Development Project (P114949) requirements during preparation, high turnover of staff since increased the disconnect and lack of awareness regarding requirements and processes under World Bank financing agreements and IDA General Conditions. b) Understaffed PMT. As prescribed in the Financing Agreement, the PMT was to be formed by one Project Coordinator, the Project Manager and three component task leaders, as well as financial management, procurement, safeguards and monitoring and evaluation specialists, among others. However, during implementation, important functions such as procurement, financial management, M&E and safeguards specialists were not consistently covered, and there were significant time lapses without these key staff14. c) High turnover of staff. Over the project’s life of the project, there were two project coordinators, four project managers, three component leaders for Component A, two component leaders for Component B, three component leaders for Component C, two project accountants, and two different people in charge of M&E. d) The PMT staff were not dedicated full-time to the project. This was not anticipated during design though a better understanding of the HR systems would have revealed that civil servants could not be seconded to the project full time and then re-enter their former positions post-project. In addition, the Project Implementation Manual (PIM) and the PAD were inconsistent regarding the permanent need for full-time M&E, FM, procurement, and safeguards staff for the PMT. The conditions of effectiveness for the project were met without these staff on board, though the Bank did note this as a concern in ISRs throughout the Project’s implementation. 57. The PMT did not use the Technical Assistance effectively. During implementation it was agreed to hire a TA Engineer Consultancy firm to (1) assist with the planning and prioritization process, (2) develop tender documents and participate in the evaluation of contractors (3) supervise the rehabilitation and construction works. Despite the importance of this Engineering Consultancy for the small dams’ sub-component, the works bidding process for the 12 dams started in August 2015 without the firm on board. As a mitigation measure, the contracting process for an individual consultant was begun for the interim period. Both the firm and the individual consultant came on board in November 2015, and remained on board for the project’s life. However, the PMT did not involve the firm in the supervision of the first 12 dams16, despite this being explicitly part of the firm’s TORs and despite repeated reminders by the World Bank task team to involve the firm. Instead, the PMT requested the firm focus on the design of 44 new dams. Meanwhile, the individual consultant continued to be engaged in the supervision of the 12 dams15. The firm was not used for the supervision of the dams until the project was Partially Suspended in March 2018. 58. Institutional arrangements caused several challenges to implementation: The implementation of the project was embedded in the existing institutional framework. This was very challenging given the ongoing institutional reform. These challenges materialized in the project as follows: 59. The small-dams sub-component did not comply with World Bank safeguards policies on involuntary resettlement, environmental impacts, and dam safety. Challenges related to the dams are linked to poor procurement and contract management, poor quality of the works, poor supervision, lack of safeguards compliance, 14 As per ISRs, M&E records show that there was not an M&E Specialist between April 2017 and January 2018; Procurement records show that there was not a procurement specialist from November 2013 to early 2014; FM records show that between July 2015 and November 2016 the accountant was unqualified—and recruiting a qualified candidate took place in November 2016; records shows that there was not a safeguards specialist until March 2018—one of the corrective actions mandated to avoid suspension. 15 12 dams were procured and contracted under the project. However, challenges with the foundation at 2 sites, made construction and rehabilitation to only advance at 10 sites. Page 17 of 58 The World Bank Zambia Water Resources Development Project (P114949) and weak criteria for prioritization and site selection. Had the NCB packages for the dams been subject to prior review, the World Bank task team could have assessed the quality of the designs and tender documents, and ensured provisions were in place to manage safeguards requirements. However, the procurement plan (which received a No Objection from the Bank on September 12, 2014) unbundled all the dams contracts to facilitate contracting in remote areas, and set these as post review. In addition, although the ESMF was clear on the safeguard requirements for the dams, and the PAD and PIM set clear limits on the size of the dams (max 10 meters high, and 1 million cubic meters impoundment capacity at full supply level16) these limits were not followed. Again, prior review and thorough supervision by the engineering consultancy and the World Bank task team would have identified these issues earlier in the implementation. 60. Weak contract management. Contractual management of the 12 dams was also highlighted as a weakness in the 2016 Auditor General’s report and the World Bank’s Independent Procurement Review. Among the most important challenges observed were: a) Failure to complete the works on time. The contracts were initiated between February and May 2016 and should have been completed over a period of 3 to 11.5 months. However, most of these contracts took over 20 months to complete, with two contracts requiring extension until May 2018. b) Failure to issue/record contract time extensions, including cases where payments were made without a valid contract. c) Failure to address poor contractor performance with no contracts cancelled and no performance guarantees invoked. d) Failure to claim liquidated damages. e) Failure to recover advanced payments where contracts stopped due to major foundation challenges (for instance, in Kasamba 17). 61. Lack of compliance with World Bank safeguards. The first 12 dams were tendered on a post review basis in June 2015. At that time, the WB reminded the MMEWD of the requirement to follow the ESMF, World Bank safeguard policies, and the FAO guidelines for small dams. In September 2015, the PMT requested the assistance from the Zambia Electricity Supply Corporation’s (ZESCO) environmental unit to prepare the Environmental Project Briefs (EPBs), which did not cover the social dimensions of the dams. However, the Environmental Project Briefs (EPBs) were finalized between March and June 2016—after tender documents were finalized, and in parallel to the start of the contracts. These were approved by the Zambian Environmental Management Agency (ZEMA) between January and May 2017. 62. Lack of due process on safeguards was first recorded in a June 2016 World Bank Aide Memoire (although the issue was not raised in the associated Management Letter). Not until the MTR in April 2017 was the lack of safeguards compliance highlighted as a major concern, with urgent remedial actions outlined and lack of compliance signalled. Noncompliance with safeguards was one of the key motivations for the Threat of Suspension on January 2018; and the Partial Suspension on March 2018. The required ESMPs, ESIAs and ARAPs were finally prepared and disclosed during the final phases of the project and are being implemented post closure. The Borrower has assured the World Bank its commitment to implement the safeguards on the ground, by completing cash compensations, ensuring the 16Page 52, MMEWD. 2013. "Project Implementation Manual of the Water Resources Development Project." November. 17In Kasamba, Manyinga district, construction works were abandoned at woks commencement as foundation challenges were found when contractor started excavating. Page 18 of 58 The World Bank Zambia Water Resources Development Project (P114949) safety of the dam structures built under the project. Full compliance with safeguards implementation is currently pending (see para 77-84 for more details). 63. Weak criteria for selection and prioritization of the sites: Although the ESMF and the PIM established a clear road map for selecting and prioritizing sites this process was not followed. Further, mitigation measures —like using catchment plans and other planning tools and decision systems and remote sensing activities—were not advanced. Instead the line Ministry asked the provinces and districts to make lists of small dams to be rehabilitated or built. From the 1,000 initially identified at the district level, 100 were prioritized at the provincial/district level. However, there was no screening and the steps established in the ESMF and PIM were not followed. For the 12 dams, no prioritization criteria was followed. Issues such as climatic condition, prior use and/or ownership of the infrastructure by the communities, whether these dams were to be built in perennial or seasonal streams were not taken into account. Of the 10 dams that were built or rehabilitated, some are over 10 meters high, and 1 million cubic meters impoundment capacity at full supply level despite ESMF, PIM and PAD requirements (Katembula, Cibalashi, Chicowa, Nabowa, and Kanyika,). Other dams are not appropriate to meet community needs: for example, the communities around Nabowa dam would have been better served with a weir rather than a dam, also, the site is very remote and difficult to access, posing constraints to dam safety. 64. Weak Inter-Ministerial and Provincial/District Level Coordination: While the intended uses of the 12 dams were for livestock, irrigation, fisheries and water supply, close and regular coordination with the ministries in charge of these sectors and the local municipalities and authorities—formalized through the Steering Committee—remained weak throughout implementation. Similarly, coordination at the provincial and district level was neither formalized nor effective. This further hindered the use and sustainability of the infrastructure. IV. BANK PERFORMANCE, COMPLIANCE ISSUES, AND RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME A. QUALITY OF MONITORING AND EVALUATION (M&E) M&E Design 65. The Project’s results framework was well aligned with the project’s activities and established a clear theory of change, contributing to both of the PDO’s objectives. The key outcome indicators also reflected the PDO aspects well. As indicated in the PAD, the project M&E framework was fully aligned with the sector’s M&E system, and used a sub- set of these sector-level indicators. Baselines and targets were defined. However, in retrospect some of the targets, such as “construction/rehabilitation of 100 dams” proved to be very ambitious. M&E Implementation 66. The PMT included an M&E Specialist. However, despite the operational manual containing a check list and other forms for M&E to guide and facilitate the task, only one quarterly report and one annual report were received by the World Bank team. Since the Component leaders were also not fully deployed on the project, documentation and reporting were challenging. Since M&E results and reports were not received on a regular basis, implementation progress was determined during mission meetings with the PMT. 67. The M&E rating for the project was Moderately Satisfactory (MS) until October 2015 when it was downgraded to Moderately Unsatisfactory (MU). The MU rating was maintained until January 2018, given that no M&E specialist was recruited and the PMT Component leaders reported not having enough time to perform M&E tasks. Page 19 of 58 The World Bank Zambia Water Resources Development Project (P114949) M&E Utilization 68. The results of the M&E were used by the Bank team to monitor progress. However, evidence and data was scantly collected by the MMEWD/MWDSEP. Lack of progress on the ground prompted the proposed project restructuring at MTR. Justification of Overall Rating of Quality of M&E 69. Given the above, the overall rating of the Quality of M&E is Negligible. B. ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL, AND FIDUCIARY COMPLIANCE 70. Financial Management. During implementation the internal controls, accounting, and staffing were deemed adequate. However, budget execution, contract management, and disbursements were consistently flagged as poor. Contract management for construction of the 12 dams was inadequate, as highlighted in the 2016 Auditor General’s report. The most important challenges observed by the audit are discussed in paragraph 61. The moderately satisfactory rating throughout most of the implementation period, was downgraded to moderately unsatisfactory between July 2015 and November 2016. The rating was downgraded because (1) an unqualified accountant was assigned to the project; (2) during the period when this unqualified accountant was in charge of the project’s financial management, audited financial statements for the year ending December 31, 2014 were submitted late; and (3) the management letter accompanying the financial statements had seven unresolved issues. These matters were resolved when the project recruited a dedicated, qualified, and experienced project accountant in March 2016. Withdrawal applications were also submitted to the Bank on a regular basis and the project did not experience any liquidity problems. 71. During the partial suspension, financial management (FM) arrangements were assessed as moderately unsatisfactory. The unsatisfactory FM rating arose from the failure to claim liquidated damages and to recover an advance on a cancelled contract. In addition, a statement of expenditure review, carried out following the suspension, revealed some ineligible and some potentially ineligible expenditures. Further, the last financial quarter report was not received until April 23, 2019, one month after the end of the grace period. 72. Procurement. The Independent Procurement Review (IPR) conducted in November 2018 revealed a series of procurement challenges from preparation to closure, including: (i) poor records keeping and management; (ii) failure to publish the approved updates of the Procurement Plan on the Bank's external website; (iii) poor quality of bidding documents used in the procurement of Works contracts (Small Works); (iv) deficiencies in the criteria used in evaluating and comparing bids for small works contracts; (v) deficiencies in specifications for works, goods and equipment; (vi) bids disqualified for minor deviations; (vii) payments for works contracts made without consultants' verification and approval. 73. There was evidence of slowness in procurement processes during preparation, when only 3 percent of the PPA was used before it was closed. The IPR also found that (i) contract management was weak, (ii) there were significant delays in handing over of the sites and in making payments to the contractors after interim payments certifications were issued (iii) there were significant delays in issuing construction drawings and site instructions, (iv) there were inadequate site investigations, and (v) construction designs and drawings were lacking. Moreover, supervision of works and contract management was erratic and reactive and may have led to unnecessary cost escalations and allowed poor quality works. Records on contactor’s payments were incomplete and inconclusive. Page 20 of 58 The World Bank Zambia Water Resources Development Project (P114949) 74. The procurement rating was upgraded from MS to Satisfactory (S) in July 2014 when a Procurement Specialist was appointed and downgraded from S to MS in October 2015. The rating remained MS until June 2017, when after the MTR mission the team downgraded from MS to MU given the weak capacity in procurement and contract management. The procurement rating remained MU until project closure. 75. An in-depth procurement review was conducted in November 2018 and in March 2019. Shortcomings were identified and recommendations were made to MoF and MWDSEP to strengthen control mechanisms and quality assurance of procurement processes. 76. Safeguards. The project triggered the following safeguards: Involuntary Resettlement OP/BP 4.12, Environmental Assessment OP/BP 4.01, Pest Management OP/BP 4.09, Physical Cultural Resources OP/BP 4.11, Dam Safety OP/BP 4.37, and Projects on International Waterways OP/BP 7.50. 77. During preparation relevant instruments to guide safeguards measures through implementation were prepared by the DWA under the MMEWD with World Bank support and made publicly available. The Environmental and Social Management Framework (ESMF) was prepared in 2012, and the Pest Management Plan (PMP) and the Resettlement Policy Framework (RPF) in February 2013. Further, notification requirements under OP/BP 7.50 (Projects on International Waterways) were fulfilled. Notifications were sent on January 7, 2013 by the World Bank following the GRZ’s request to all riparian states within the Zambezi and Congo River Basins. No objections were received from any of the riparian states. 78. However, the project faced significant challenges during implementation because of lack of compliance with the World Bank’s safeguards (OP/BP 4.12 & OP/BP 4.01). Specifically, challenges related to the construction/rehabilitation of 10 small dams18. In June 2015 the World Bank task team informally warned the PMT of the requirement for following safeguards policies coinciding with the launch of the tenders for the contracts. A year later, in June 2016, the World Bank mentioned challenges related to safeguards in an AM, and almost a year after that, in April 2017, the MTR escalated the issue more prominently.19 Thereafter, lack of compliance was promptly escalated within the World Bank to senior management and within GRZ. The Project was included in the portfolio oversight engagement with the MNDP and MoF at the level of Minister and Permanent Secretary; meetings were held regularly, and progress monitored20. However, continued lack of compliance led to the Threat of Suspension in January 2018, and subsequent Partial Suspension in March 2018. Following the MTR, significant efforts by both the World Bank and the GRZ were made to ensure safeguard instruments were prepared or amended to meet World Bank standards and implemented accordingly21. 18 12 dams were procured and contracted under the project. However, challenges with the foundation at 2 sites, made construction and rehabilitation to only advance at 10 sites. 19 AM and ML sent to the MWDSEP on June 15, 2017; World Bank. 2018. "Implementation Status and Results Report- Sequence # 9- June 2018. Following the MTR, a workshop was held in August 2017 to facilitate consensus on the scope of the restructuring, to no avail. 20 To address lack of compliance with safeguards policies, the World Bank escalated the issues with the Ministry of Finance (MoF), Ministry of National Development Planning (MoNDP) and the Cabinet, raising the issue at the Annual Meetings in 2017, the Spring and Annual Meetings in 2018 and again at the spring meetings in 2019. Between October 2017 and June 2018, the Deputy Secretary of Cabinet (DSC) chaired regular meetings with MWDSEP, MoF and MoNDP to help address the safeguards and dam safety challenges. The meetings were attended by the Task Team and the CMU. Despite these efforts, no substantial progress was made. 21 The WB reminded GRZ of their obligations beyond project closure in correspondence dated October 10, 2018 and November 27, 2018. Following project closure, the World Bank reminded GRZ about their obligations and the fact that GRZ shall implement Page 21 of 58 The World Bank Zambia Water Resources Development Project (P114949) 79. Under World Bank internal reporting systems through ISRs, safeguards are monitored under the overall safeguard rating, and under the compliance section. Nothing was reported by the World Bank team on safeguards from November 2013 to October 2015. From June 2016 to January 2018, a system glitch impeded this rating from being reported. In January 2018 the Safeguards rating was rated as highly unsatisfactory (HU). As per the compliance section of the ISR, nothing was reported regarding safeguards until June 2017, when several environmental and social safeguards issues were highlighted, but there was no rating assigned as the ISR template did not allow it. In January 2018 compliance was rated HU. 81. Social Impacts. Of the 10 dams constructed/rehabilitated, only six required the preparation of an Abbreviated Resettlement Action Plan (ARAP). Land impacts in these six sites were mainly due to the impoundment of the reservoirs and the resulting loss of agricultural plots located in the reservoir areas, and the interruption of farming activities during construction downstream of the dam or in the immediacies of the construction site. While permanent impacts, such as farm plots located in a reservoir area, required land-for-land compensations, temporary impacts required cash compensation for project affected people (PAPs). 82. Compliance with Involuntary Resettlement OP/BP 4.12. At closure, six Abbreviated Resettlement Action Plans (ARAPs) were finalized, submitted to the World Bank for review, cleared by the World Bank, and publicly disclosed. The World Bank also agreed to a request by the GRZ, received on November 22, 2018, to restructure the project to allow the use of up to US$100,000 to finance cash compensations. Cash compensation payments to the PAPs, as well as pending land-for-land compensations are still outstanding. As of April 2, 2019, the MWDSEP communicated to the World Bank that cash-for-cash compensations had been completed; the World Bank is carrying out verification. Further, the GRZ, through a letter dated November 30, 2018, committed to ensuring land-for-land compensations to the 117 PAPs in accordance with customary land allocation practice. Reallocation of land is still ongoing and the GRZ expects it will be completed in in the coming months. 83. Compliance with Environmental Assessment OP/BP 4.01; Pest Management OP/BP 4.09; Physical Cultural Resources OP/BP 4.11. At closure in November 2018, the Environmental Management Instruments were integrated by comprehensive Environmental and Social Management Plan (ESMP) for eight dams to complement the existing Environmental Project Briefs (EPBs) approved by the ZEMA, and by two Addendum Environmental and Social Impact Assessments (ESIAs) to complement the EPBs approved by ZEMA for Katembula and Chibalashi were finalized. These instruments were finalized at the end of the project, reviewed by the Bank, and disclosed by MWDSEP on its website. The World Bank has reminded the GRZ that all measures included in the ESMPs and ESIA should be addressed and implemented in the Remedial Action Plan. The environmental impacts identified include: (i) excessive erosion and soil/sediment loss from construction sites and waterways at both new works and rehabilitated dam sites, (ii) poor operations and inadequate closure and rehabilitation of borrow pits, (iii) potential risks of algae/invasive species, (iv) inadequate provisions for ecological flows at some of the sites, and (v) potential biodiversity impacts. 84. Compliance with Dam Safety OP/BP 4.37. Compliance with Dam Safety was to be ensured trough the Remedial Action Plan as per the conditions of the Threat of Suspension and Partial Suspension. As this plan was not fulfilled under the project, the World Bank and the GRZ, after extensive dialogue, had agreed to address dam safety legacy issues through an additional financing to the World Bank Funded Irrigation Development and Support Project (ISDP). See para 96 and 97 for more details. safeguards measures (correspondence dated January 16, 2019 (ML & AM of Nov Mission); January 28, March 18, and April 25 of 2019. Page 22 of 58 The World Bank Zambia Water Resources Development Project (P114949) C. BANK PERFORMANCE Quality at Entry 85. The Zambia Water Resources Development Project built upon the momentum of the 2011 WRM Act and positioned the World Bank for the first time as a key partner for the GRZ to address WRM challenges, the infrastructure deficit, and contribute to the roll-out of institutional reforms by supporting MMEWD’s core functions. The design was well aligned with the GRZ’s priorities and informed by a robust strategy (CRWAS) and planning process (IWRM/WE IP). 86. However, there were important factors during preparation that questioned project readiness: (1) the use of only three percent of the PPA funds, with few preparatory activities undertaken, (2) the institutional reforms—though identified in the PAD as a key project risk—were not met with strong mitigation measures like a strong PMT and sufficient TA support (though these were included in the project’s design, these measures were not sufficiently backed up by legal covenants and were described inconsistently in the PIM, PAD and FA); (3) mitigation measures to address risks related to the small infrastructure sub-component failed, and (4) the project—which was designed as a framework project to provide flexibility to adapt to the changing circumstances in the sector—lacked the fixed design needed to complement the lack of MMEWD experience implementing World Bank projects. 87. In sum, the World Bank went ahead as a flexible and open partner, supporting a large, wide ranging and ambitious sector support, given clear sector needs. While the risks were recognized, and clear mitigating measures set up, the design of these mitigating measures made them vulnerable to failure. Once under implementation, the risks were not mitigated through the established channels, and the World Bank, the MWDSEP, and the GRZ could not find a common platform to bring the project back on track. Quality of Supervision 88. To explain Bank performance during implementation, the supervision is reviewed in three phases: 89. Pre-MTR Phase, from project start to April 2017: During this four-year period, seven ISR and five AMs22 were filed. As per these records, the initial phase of the project focused on achieving effectiveness and getting activities started. Conditions of effectiveness were: (i) a designated Project Coordinator, a Project Steering Committee and a Project Management Team and (ii) the preparation and adoption of a PMI in accordance with the provisions of the Financing Agreement. The PMT was appointed on April 29, 2013 and the rest of the conditions were fulfilled by December 24, 2013. 90. Concerns around the institutional reform and its impact on decision making vis-à-vis project activities, coupled with a weak PMT were raised by the Bank. Efforts were made to support progress by facilitating agreements between the Ministry, WARMA and the development partners on the scope of key activities to allow procurements to advance. 91. Official reporting systems did not record important aspects of the project. For example, FM ratings for ISRs submitted in November 26, 2013 and July 6, 2014 were moderately satisfactory, while unspent balance of US$449,670.22 under the PPA was to be reimbursed. Further, although this reimbursement was due at PPA closing in June 30, 2013, it was not reimbursed until July 24, 2014. Similarly, when the tenders for small dams were opened 22The AMs are for Implementation Support Missions in November 2013, August 2014, February 2016, June 2016, and April 2017. Page 23 of 58 The World Bank Zambia Water Resources Development Project (P114949) (June 2015–September 2015) the World Bank team insisted on implementing the provisions under the ESMF, World Bank safeguard policies, and the FAO guidelines for small dams through email correspondence (June 24 and July 8, 2015) before works began. However, the ISR of October 2015 does not mention either that this procurement had started nor any concerns on the Borrower’s non-compliance with safeguards.23 92. A TTL hand-over took place at a critical juncture of project implementation, right when the implementation of some key activities, including the dams, started in late 2015. The records show that the hand-over process was suboptimal: it did not include an overlap period nor a joint mission, and formal reporting and records were sparse (in part due to frequent but informal missions by the World Bank team). Further, despite the recommendations of the OAS review to schedule the MTR in early 2016, the MTR did not happen until April 2017 due initially to the change in TTL and subsequently to repeated postponements by the client. 93. In April 2017, the PDO and Implementation Progress ratings were downgraded to MU and respectively U, and noncompliance with safeguards were reported under the compliance section of the ISR. Overall safeguards ratings do not show in the ISR due to a system glitch from June 2016 to January 2017. 94. Post-MTR Phase, May 2017 to November 2018: this period was marked by the escalation of the problems faced by the project as raised in the MTR with both the GRZ and World Bank management. During this period, the World Bank mobilized additional resources (staff and consultants) and supervised the project closely. The World Bank was present in monthly meetings set up by the GRZ’s Deputy Secretary of Cabinet to monitor progress. Project challenges were discussed at the highest levels during Annual Meetings in 2017 and 2018, Spring Meetings in 2018, through senior management visits in June and October 2018, three technical missions in April 2018, September 2018 and November 2018, and again during Spring Meetings in 2019. Over this period the team also processed a Threat of Suspension (January 2018) and a Partial Suspension (March 2018) to address project challenges and bring the dam activities back to compliance. The World Bank also restructured the project twice to process a client request for (1) cancelation of funds and (2) to allow the use of IDA funds to pay cash compensations to PAPs. A Senior Water Resources Management Specialist was deployed to the World Bank’s Lusaka office in September 2018, as part of the World Bank’s efforts to address ongoing concerns. 95. Beyond Project Closure- December 2018 to April 2019: Following project cancelation and closure, the World Bank has made significant efforts to ensure compliance beyond project closure. The task team has been supporting the GRZ to fulfil pending safeguards items through constant communication with the PMT and official correspondence, including meetings with the PMT and MWDSEP, meetings with DSC, MNDP, MOF and official communications dated January 28, 2019, March 19, 2019, April 25, 2019, May 29, 2019, June 11, 2019, October 03, 2019. The Bank continues to monitor land-for-land compensation. 96. Continuous dialog after project closure has led to an agreement between the GRZ and the World Bank to address dam safety legacy issues under WRDP through the World Bank funded Irrigation Development and Support Project (ISDP) by following a two-phase approach: • Phase 1: a level-2 restructuring of the Irrigation Development and Support Project (IDSP, P102459) to provide funding (up to US$ 500,000) to minimize risks posed by the 10 dams before and during the 2019-2020 23The Safeguards Review of the Zambia Portfolio (May 2018) mentioned that “ISRs through sequence #6 (i.e. before mid-term review) do not address in any substantive detail, the serious deficiencies by client in safeguards staffing, nor progress on competent environmental and social screening for the 12 dams.” Page 24 of 58 The World Bank Zambia Water Resources Development Project (P114949) rainy season by financing non-structural interventions (i.e. surveillance and emergency preparedness for communities) and very limited structural interventions as identified by the surveillance, • Phase 2: an AF to IDSP to implement necessary remedial works for the 10 dams, commencing after the 2019/20 rainy season. It is important to note that Phase 2 will only commence if progress under Phase 1 is observed. 97. Further, it was agreed that the United Nations Office for Project Services (UNOPS) is the vehicle to implement both phases. Justification of Overall Rating of Bank Performance 98. Despite all the efforts made, the project could not be turned around and put back on track to meet its objectives. Break-downs in communication with the MWDESP happened repeatedly and the Bank could not exercise persuasion nor find a way to address the issues effectively within the GRZ. Post closure, the views on the project’s performance, the quality of the infrastructure and the impacts on the local communities between the Bank and MWDSEP diverged considerably. As a result, the World Bank’s performance is rated as Unsatisfactory. D. RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME 99. The development outcome is at substantive risk. The quality of the works for the 10 dams built/rehabilitated varies. To ensure the sustainability of the PDO, the dams need to be remediated by the GRZ, and operation and maintenance (O&M) arrangements at the provincial, district, and community levels must be clarified and strengthened. As stated in para 96, this will be undertaken under IDSP. 100. The outcome of several TA consultancies under Component A are currently being used by WARMA. To ensure its sustainability and usability, further dissemination of the final reports is needed. The outcome will need to be updated and revised with time, as the hydro-met networks gets installed, consistency with the report and guidance provided by the TA can be assessed. 101. As per the acquisition of equipment, installation and proper O&M are needed as to ensure that equipment is ready for use. Gauge plates were delivered to the catchment offices. The majority of these have been installed according to WARMA, although 8 are pending installation in Kabwe Catchment Office (site visit conducted on February 2018, and correspondence on November 2019). Boats for data collection and supervision acquired under the project are currently parked and stored in Kabwe Catchment Office. However, proximity to the water sources across the country will ease their use. This will incentivize O&M and the sustainability of the outcome. 102. Sustainability of the Lidar Data developed under the project depends upon having access to proper software and hardware infrastructure currently not available. During the ICR mission, PMT confirmed that MWDSE plans to acquire this infrastructure for MWDSEP use. V. LESSONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 103. The key lessons and recommendations are: 104. A shared understanding between the GRZ and the World Bank on the scope of a framework project, and of policies and procedures for World Bank-financed operations, is essential. During implementation, most activities suffered from substantial delays and deviated from the World Bank’s mandatory procedures. The MWDSEP and its PMT struggled to follow the World Bank’s requirements on safeguards, financial management, and procurement. At Page 25 of 58 The World Bank Zambia Water Resources Development Project (P114949) preparation, implementation arrangements should have been delineated in greater detail (including as a condition of effectiveness), to ensure proper staffing and review of projects selected under the framework approach. Further, to support effective implementation of framework projects in a context of weak implementation capacity, clear milestones should be laid out at the start with the options of using disbursement triggers. For example, a list of investments in accordance with clear prioritization criteria could have been set as a first-year milestone and as a disbursement condition included in the Financing Agreement. 105. Project preparation to be realistically adjusted to portfolio performance and sector capacity. A longer preparation timeline could have allowed key mitigation measures to be put in place and be readily available at early stages of implementation, hence also making use of the PPA. Further, advancing the preparation of critical subcomponents or making some preparation steps a condition of effectiveness could have facilitated project implementation in the longer term. In addition, it is important to ensure coherence and clarity of the PAD, FA and PIM, and adequately reflect the projects’ checks and balances through backstopping measures in the financing agreement. 106. Incorporation of civil society and other Ministries can help improve project ownerships and sustainability. Many of the project’s outputs and outcomes—particularly the ancillary infrastructure of the small-scale infrastructure—were linked to other ministries (like agriculture, fisheries and forestry), and their active involvement in the Steering Committee and in the PMT (at critical phases of implementation) would have been beneficial. For example, given that bulk water infrastructure depends upon the MWDSEP and the irrigation canals upon the Ministry of Agriculture, more collaboration would have ensured more clarity on the roles and responsibilities vis-a-vis construction and rehabilitation, and the O&M of the infrastructure. Similarly, local communities should have been better involved in the decision-making process and their mobilization and preparation to take over the infrastructure should have been stronger. 107. Projects implemented in vast geographical areas, demand for enhanced implementation planning, supervision capacity and stronger collaborations at the local level. Zambia is a vast country and the project’s activities were geographically widespread. To mitigate the risks and manage the complexity, the project may have benefitted from: 1) decentralized implementation capacity at the provincial or district level to be as close as possible to where the investments are happening; this would include: (a) deploying sufficient capacity at that level, (b) making sure the local branches of the administration and project implementation unit are staffed adequately, (c) if a Technical Consultant is used, making sure the TOR and contract made provision for adequate decentralization of capacity, and (d) facilitating cooperation with other line ministries at that level as required for the sustainability of the investments; 2) time-phase and space-phase the investments: when planning for implementation, cluster investments by time and location as to ensure administration and supervision remain manageable; 3) engage the local administration to build ownership and accountability. 108. Projects implemented in complex institutional and geographical environments require enhanced implementation support by the World Bank. If management of spread-out investments is complex, so is supervision by the World Bank. In particular, safeguards compliance supervision should have been strengthened with local consultants visiting the sites regularly and providing guidance to the PMT on preparing and implementing safeguards instruments. Procurement supervision should also have been tighter. While under the regionally approved thresholds packages fell under post- review, the PMT’s low capacity merited prior-review for at least the first NCB package for the dam civil works, and for other packages requiring especially high-quality bidding documents. Finally, the resources available for project supervision should match the level of supervision needed. Under this project, supervision required chartering a plane Page 26 of 58 The World Bank Zambia Water Resources Development Project (P114949) to conduct effective and efficient supervision missions given that investments were spread-out through the entire country. This became extremely expensive. 109. Investment prioritization must be done according to clear criteria. Robust prioritization and selection criteria for activities and investments helps keep implementation on track and improves ownership. All investments should be economically, environmentally, and socially sound. Having cost-benefit analyses and mobilization of the beneficiaries should be preconditions for activities to go ahead. The prioritization criteria should be agreed by appraisal and applied to all investments. 110. Regular reporting and record keeping, and adequate and timely escalation of issues, are essential project management tools. The project was hampered by communication break-downs. In the early stages of the project, although substantial informal communication was happening on the ground between MWDSEP and the World Bank’s task team, formal reporting was scant (one aide memoire in 2014 and one 2015 were filed). During project implementation, MWDSEP and the World Bank had diverging views and communication between the PMT and the Task Team was not always effective. Regular reporting and adequate escalation of issues to the Ministry of Finance, on one side, and to World Bank management, on the other, should have been used earlier and more effectively. The existing reporting systems, such as regular portfolio reviews and ISRs should have brought to attention the challenges being faced candidly, so as to foster required support. ISRs should align PDO and IP ratings with actual progress and results and provide brief explanation for all ratings, including for safeguards. ISR should spell out challenges clearly in the section to raise management attention. Similarly, reporting on legal covenants should be rigorous in all ISRs, and conveniently captured in AMs and MLs. . Page 27 of 58 The World Bank Zambia Water Resources Development Project (P114949) ANNEX 1. RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND KEY OUTPUTS A. RESULTS INDICATORS A.1 PDO Indicators Objective/Outcome: Implementation of a framework for the development of water resources Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Water storage established in Number 0.00 100.00 0.00 rural communities 01-Apr-2013 01-Apr-2013 30-Nov-2019 Comments (achievements against targets): Although it could be argued that 10 out of 100 dams have been built or rehabilitated, none of the certificates of completion have been received to date. This, along with challenges related to the quality of the works results in none of the 100 dams. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Water resources Number 0.00 5.00 0.00 infrastructure investments under preparation 03-Apr-2013 30-Nov-2018 30-Nov-2018 Comments (achievements against targets): Page 28 of 58 The World Bank Zambia Water Resources Development Project (P114949) This activity did not advance under the project. Objective/Outcome: Support the implementation of a framework for the management of water resources Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Improve accuracy of Percentage 0.00 75.00 0.00 hydological forecast 01-Apr-2013 30-Nov-2018 30-Nov-2018 Comments (achievements against targets): The project started the path towards improve accuracy of hydrological forecasts through the activity: “development of flood forecasting and early warning systems” by completing Lidar surveys for Lukanga Swamps, Kafue Flats and Kazungula Area (3 flood-prone areas along the Zambezi River and tributaries). It is important to note that, although Lidar data had already been collected for Kafue Flats under another project and it was suggested by the WB that in order to not duplicate the work this project should choose another area, Kafue flats was surveyed again under ZWRDP. Although the data has been collected, software and hardware infrastructure to read and analyze this data has not been acquired. Therefore, the actual achievement at completion is 0%. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Water permits monitored for Percentage 0.00 90.00 100.00 compliance 01-Apr-2013 30-Nov-2018 30-Nov-2018 Page 29 of 58 The World Bank Zambia Water Resources Development Project (P114949) Comments (achievements against targets): As reported by WARMA rights were converted to permits. Although there were a total of 3,530 entries in the water right database, some of them were invalid, the water right holder was inexistent, or the land use had change. Thus, only a total of 406 rights were then converted to permits. The conversions from water rights to permits could not be validated by the Bank. A.2 Intermediate Results Indicators Component: Water Resources Management Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Catchment management Number 0.00 6.00 0.00 plans developed for optimizing allocation and 01-Apr-2013 30-Nov-2018 30-Nov-2018 management of water resources Comments (achievements against targets): This activity did not advance under the project. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Page 30 of 58 The World Bank Zambia Water Resources Development Project (P114949) % of hydro-meteorological Percentage 46.80 100.00 46.80 stations network operational and reporting 01-Apr-2013 30-Nov-2018 30-Nov-2018 Comments (achievements against targets): This sub-component was picked up by another development partner. Note that the ZWRDP financed only the acquisition of 100-gauge plates to be installed by WARMA. The majority of these have been installed according to WARMA, the Kabwe Catchment Office has received 25 gauges plates and as of November 2019, 17 were already installed (site visit conducted on February 2018 and communication on November 2019). The baseline was established in an ISR in numeric terms, rather than percentages. This baseline was established at 37.5 stations established (46.8%); while the target was 80 (100%) To be consistent, we are reporting these in percentages. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Flood risk zones delineated Number 0.00 6.00 0.00 01-Apr-2013 30-Nov-2018 30-Nov-2018 Page 31 of 58 The World Bank Zambia Water Resources Development Project (P114949) Comments (achievements against targets): This activity did not advance under the project. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Aquifer management plans Number 0.00 6.00 0.00 developed 01-Apr-2013 30-Nov-2018 30-Nov-2018 Comments (achievements against targets): This activity did not advance under the project. Component: Water Resources Development Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Infrastructure inventory Percentage 10.00 95.00 10.00 completed 01-Apr-2013 30-Nov-2018 30-Nov-2018 Comments (achievements against targets): This activity did not advance under the project Page 32 of 58 The World Bank Zambia Water Resources Development Project (P114949) Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Direct project beneficiaries Number 0.00 200000.00 0.00 01-Apr-2013 30-Nov-2018 30-Nov-2018 Comments (achievements against targets): No estimates on beneficiaries can be provided. However, as reported in the efficacy section, a household survey was carried out at closure. As per this survey: Communities generally reported to have benefited from the project. 85% of the people surveyed reported direct or indirect benefits from the infrastructure as access to water improved, mainly during the dry season. However, despite the infrastructure built, at the four sites surveyed, crops continue to be cultivated mainly during the rainy season. Benefits from agriculture vary from site to site: overall, 37% of the people surveyed reported an increase of income due to increased crop sales, which they perceived to be linked to the availability of more water from the dam/reservoir. However, only 20% of respondents reported to have been assigned a plot in the irrigated area and to be using it. Moreover, and as reflected in the safeguards section, plots inundated by the impoundment of Chibalashi and Chikowa dams have not yet been reassigned or have taken a long time to be reassigned under customary land arrangements, and this has negatively affected households’ income. In terms of livestock, 72% of respondents reported to have benefited mainly from water availability year-round and improved access to water for their livestock. Of these, 45.6% have seen an increase in income due to livestock activity. In terms of fishing, about half of the people surveyed reported to have fish both before and after the project, of these, 72% have seen an increase in the fish yield. Page 33 of 58 The World Bank Zambia Water Resources Development Project (P114949) Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Female beneficiaries Percentage 0.00 50.00 0.00 01-Apr-2013 30-Nov-2018 30-Nov-2018 Comments (achievements against targets): Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Exploratory well fields Number 0.00 4.00 0.00 developed 01-Apr-2013 30-Nov-2018 30-Nov-2018 Comments (achievements against targets): This activity was not advanced under the Project. Component: Insitutional Support Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Water Resources Percentage 0.00 1.00 0.00 Page 34 of 58 The World Bank Zambia Water Resources Development Project (P114949) Management Authority 01-Apr-2013 30-Nov-2018 30-Nov-2018 financially stable Comments (achievements against targets): Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Operational water user Number 0.00 120.00 0.00 associations created and/or strengthened (number) 01-Apr-2013 30-Nov-2018 30-Nov-2018 Comments (achievements against targets): Although it could be argued that 10 operational water user associations were created or strengthened, dam committees are not yet recognized as Water User Associations (WUA) as the bylaw and register of WUAs is not yet in place. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Strengthened capacity to Text No established unit Number of Unit established, no facilitate management of Notifications Made notifications made international waters 01-Apr-2013 30-Nov-2018 30-Nov-2018 Comments (achievements against targets): Page 35 of 58 The World Bank Zambia Water Resources Development Project (P114949) Under this activity 2 dedicated units were established to deal with transboundary issues within DWRD. However, no notifications were made. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Technical trainings held for Number 0.00 6.00 4.00 water resources staff 01-Apr-2013 30-Nov-2018 30-Nov-2018 Comments (achievements against targets): The project supported the development of a training program on water development and management and general project management functions (contract management, finance, procurement, etc.). Under this activity, 4 technical trainings were implemented by the University of Zambia Integrated Water Resources Management Centre (UNZA IWRM), hosted by the Geology Department in the School of Mines. These trainings are: short course on hydrology, short course on hydrogeology, short course on dam safety and post graduate diploma in IWRM. Further, it is important to note that during preparation trainings on Geographic Information Systems were conducted as well. Page 36 of 58 The World Bank Zambia Water Resources Development Project (P114949) A. KEY OUTPUTS BY COMPONENT Objective/Outcome 1- Implementation of a framework for the development of water resources. 1.Water storage established in rural communities. Outcome Indicators 2.Water investments under preparation 1. Infrastructure inventory completed Intermediate Results Indicators 2. Exploratory well fields developed 3. 1.No Outputs, see RF and Efficacy analysis for more details. Key Outputs by Component 2. (linked to the achievement of the Objective/Outcome 1) 3. 4. Objective/Outcome 2 Support the implementation of a framework for the management of water resources. 1. Improve accuracy of hydrological forecast Outcome Indicators 2. Water permits monitored for compliance 1. Catchment management plans developed for optimizing allocation and management of water resources 2. % of hydro-meteorological stations network operational and reporting 3. Flood risk zones delineated 4. Aquifer management plans developed Intermediate Results Indicators 5. Water Resources Management Authority financially stable 6. Operational water user associations created and/or strengthened (number) 7. Strengthened capacity to facilitate management of international waters 8. Technical trainings held for water resources staff Page 37 of 58 The World Bank Zambia Water Resources Development Project (P114949) Key Outputs by Component 1.Water rights were converted to permits. (linked to the achievement of the Objective/Outcome 2) 2.Four technical trainings were implanted by UNZA. Page 38 of 58 The World Bank Zambia Water Resources Development Project (P114949) ANNEX 2. BANK LENDING AND IMPLEMENTATION SUPPORT/SUPERVISION A. TASK TEAM MEMBERS Name Role Preparation Andrey Gurevich Financial Analyst Bernadette Milunga Team Assistant Bobak Rezaian Sr Energy Specialist Cecil Nundwe Water Resource Specialist Eric Foster-Moore Operations Analyst Fenwick Chitalu Financial Management Specialist Kristine Schwebach Social Specialist Leonard Abrams Senior Water Resources Specialist Lingson Chikoti Financial Management Specialist Louise Croneborg Water Resource Mgmt Specialist Lucson Pierre-Charles Team Assistant Team Assistant Luis Schwarz Senior Finance Officer Marcus Wishart Task Team Leader Mekuria Tafesse Water Resources Consultant International Neta Walima Team Assistant Oeyvind Lier Sr Hydropower Specialist Pieter Waalewijn Irrigation Specialist Rikard Liden Sr Hydropower Specialist Rimma Dankova Water Resource Economist Robert Robelus Environmental Consultant Satoru Ueda Dam Specialist Sipiwe Chihame Program Assistant Stephen Mukaindo Counsel LEGAM Thandi Gxaba Sr Environmental Specialist Vahid Alavian Water and Energy Advisor Wedex Ilunga Sr Procurement Specialist Wolfgang Chabad Sr Finance Officer Supervision/ICR Anna Cestari Task Team Leader(s) Baison Banda Financial Specialist Cecil Nundwe Water Resource Specialist and Co-Task Team Leader Page 39 of 58 The World Bank Zambia Water Resources Development Project (P114949) Diane Sandra Arjoon Water Resources Speialists (Consultant) Frezer Zemedkun Shiferaw Team Member (Dams Consultant) Irene Rehberger Bescos Team Member Kristine Schwebach Social Specialist Kristine Schwebach Safeguards Specialist Lingson Chikoti Financial Management Specialist Lungiswa Thandiwe Gxaba Safeguards Specialist Marcus Wishart Task Team Leader Mwansa Lukwesa Environmental Specialist Njavwa Namposya Chilufya Social Specialist Richard Everett Senior Social Specialist (Consultant) Ronald N. Hoffer Environmental Specialist Shelley Mcmillan Task Team Leader(s) Sipiwe Janet Chihame Team Assistant Thandi Gxaba Sr Environmental Specialist Wedex Ilunga Procurement Specialist(s) A. STAFF TIME AND COST Staff Time and Cost Stage of Project Cycle No. of staff weeks US$ (including travel and consultant costs) Preparation FY09 10.475 36,114.67 FY10 26.434 126,716.74 FY11 14.537 60,400.70 FY12 17.061 157,872.82 FY13 28.878 239,917.67 FY14 5.845 19,541.91 FY15 25.811 40,669.54 FY16 0 1,090.33 FY17 0 17,186.59 Page 40 of 58 The World Bank Zambia Water Resources Development Project (P114949) FY18 0 0.00 Total 129.04 699,510.97 Supervision/ICR FY14 15.147 84,030.61 FY15 2.530 16,619.73 FY16 22.025 93,538.89 FY17 26.214 189,439.71 FY18 46.230 261,576.78 FY19 37.324 281,379.19 FY20 16.125 100,614.58 Total 165.60 1,027,199.49 Page 41 of 58 The World Bank Zambia Water Resources Development Project (P114949) ANNEX 3. PROJECT COST BY COMPONENT Amount at Approval Actual at Project Percentage of Approval Components (US$M) Closing (US$M) (US$M) Component A. Water 8 4.93 61.63% Resources Management Component B. Water 30 13.46 44.87% Resources Development Component C. Institutional 12 6.34 52.83% Support Total 50.00 24.7324 49.46% 24Based on the financial quarterly reports this are the project costs. Differences with the data sheet table at the beginning of the document are due to missing funds yet to be reimbursed from GRZ to the Bank, and ongoing discussions on potential ineligible expenses incurred during the Partial Suspension. Page 42 of 58 The World Bank Zambia Water Resources Development Project (P114949) ANNEX 4. BORROWER, CO-FINANCIER AND OTHER PARTNER/STAKEHOLDER COMMENTS The World Bank shared an ICR draft with the GRZ on June 12, 2019. Borrower comments were provided on June 28, 2019 and incorporated in the final report, which was shared again with the GRZ on November 27, 2019. No further comments were received. Page 43 of 58 The World Bank Zambia Water Resources Development Project (P114949) ANNEX 5. SUPPORTING DOCUMENTS (IF ANY) Project Supervision and Management Related documents: − Project Appraisal Document (2013) − Financing Agreement, Credit Number 5239, (2013) − Aide Memoires and Management Letters of Implementation Support Missions 2013-2018 − Implementation Status Reports 2013-2018 − Mid Term Review Document (2017) − Threat of Suspension and Suspension (2018) − All Official Correspondence under the Project (2013-2018) − Project Implementation Manual of the Water Resources Development Project (2013) − Procurement Plans − Independent Procurement Review (2018) − Independent Safeguards Review (2018) − Monitoring Reports from National, Provincial and County level (2013-2018) − Borrower’s Project Completion Report (2018) 1- Other Supporting Documents. Country and Sector Related Documents (Bibliography): European Space Agency. 2012. "Developing an Inventory for Small Water Bodies in Zambia." FAO. 2010. "Manual on Small Earth Dams ." Ministry of Energy and Water Development. 2010. "National Water Policy." February. Ministry of National Development Planning. 2017. "Seventh National Development Plan 2017-2021." National Development Plan. MMEWD. 2013. "Project Implementation Manual of the Water Resources Development Project." November. Nordic Consulting Group. 2012. "Economic Analysis of Small Dams on Rural Poverty in Zambia." September 18. Republic of Zambia. 2008. "Integrated Water Resources Management and Water Efficiency Implementation Plan." April. Republic of Zambia. 2011. "Sixth National Development Plan 2011-2015: Sustained Economic Growth and Poverty Reduction ." January. Republic of Zambia. 2006. "VISION 2013: A prosperous Middle-Income Nation by 2030." December. World Bank. 2009. "A Country Water Resources Assistance Strategy for Zambia: Zambia, Managing Water for Sustainable Growth and Poverty Reduction." Washington DC: The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank, August. Page 44 of 58 The World Bank Zambia Water Resources Development Project (P114949) World Bank and World Fish Center. 2009. "Fisheries in Zambia: An Undervalued Contributor to Poverty Reduction." Policy Brief. World Bank. 2018. "Country Partnership Framework for Zambia for the Period FY19-FY23." Country Partnership Framework. September 20. World Bank. 2013. "Country Partnership Strategy for the Republic of Zambia for the Period FY13 to FY16." Country Partnership Strategy. February 15. Page 45 of 58 The World Bank Zambia Water Resources Development Project (P114949) ANNEX 6. SUBCOMPONENTS, OUTPUTS AND RESULTS Table 1. Table of Subcomponents, outputs and results. Component Progress under the Project Related Indicator Component A: Water Resources Management (US$8 million at appraisal; US$ 4.73 at closure) i. Construction, rehabilitation, and Partially advanced. upgrading of hydro-meteorological and groundwater monitoring networks A TA consultancy produced reports ii.Review and upgrading of operating tackling each of these sub- procedures and processes to enhance components. However, the Since the implementation the capacity of hydro-meteorological implementation phase of this phase was not carried out. No and groundwater information consultancy was not started under results were achieved under management systems and functions the WRDP, and the quality of this results indicator: “% of iii. Enhancing institutional implemented works could not be hydro-meteorological stations partnerships and collaborations validated. network operational and Not advanced. reporting”. iv. Review, upgrading, and implementation of the national This corresponded to the hydrological and hydrogeological implementation phase of the information management systems, activities mentioned above. This including the integration of spatial and was not advanced under the remotely sensed data project. Partially advanced. No results were achieved The project completed Lidar v.Development of flood forecasting and under results indicator: surveys for Lukanga Swamps, Kafue early warning system “improve accuracy of Flats and Kazungula Area (three hydrological forecast”. flood-prone areas along the Zambezi River and its tributaries). No results were achieved vi. Preparation of consolidated under results indicator: catchment and basin-level water “catchment management resources development plans and Not advanced plans developed for optimizing carrying out associated strategic water allocation and management of assessments water resources” vii. Implementation of The target of this indicator was arrangements and measures for water Under the project WARMA fully met. (Water permits resource allocation, licensing, revenue completed the conversion from monitored for compliance) and compliance monitoring and Water Rights to Permits. This was management not verified by the Bank. Page 46 of 58 The World Bank Zambia Water Resources Development Project (P114949) Component Progress under the Project Related Indicator Component B: Water Resources Development (US$30 million at appraisal; US$ 13.46 at closure) 10 dams were constructed/rehabilitated. i. Development and rehabilitation However, the quality of the works of small-scale water resources was poor, and certificates of No results were achieved infrastructure, such as small dams, completion were not received. under results indicator: “water weird, gabions, and other small civil Designs and BOQs were prepared storage established under the works intended to retain water, reduce for other 36 water structures, project” erosion, enhance recharge, and ensure (mainly dams). These were productive application prepared by the Engineer Consultant. ii.Updating and climate screening the 1995 Dam Development Master Plan Not advanced to identify a series of priority investments for further preparation No results were achieved iii. Preparation of studies in support under results indicator: “Water of a proposed pipeline for future Not advanced resources infrastructure medium term and large-scale water investments under resource investments preparation.” iv. Supporting environmental and social assessment for said future water Not advanced resource investments v.Carrying out community mobilization and sensitization for beneficial use as Partially advanced. well as O&M vi. Development and implementation of a national dam Not advanced safety monitoring program vii. Development and implementation of a national managed Not advanced groundwater development program Component C: Institutional Support (US$12 million at appraisal; US$ 6.34 million at closure) No results were achieved under results indicator: “Operational water user 10 dam committees were set up in i. Support for the set-up of associations created and/or the 10 dams constructed or institutions established under the 2011 strengthened (number)” rehabilitated. WRM Act and implementation of their functions This is because the WUA Committees were not formalized. regulation is not yet passed and the committees were not formalized. Page 47 of 58 The World Bank Zambia Water Resources Development Project (P114949) Component Progress under the Project Related Indicator ii. Development of rules, plans, strategies, and carrying out of studies, as needed, for the implementation of the Not advanced Water Resources Management Act to ensure the sustainable and equitable development of water resources No results were achieved iii. Building capacity for under results indicator: Two International Waters units negotiations, conflict resolution, “Strengthened capacity to have been established and are now monitoring and compliance with facilitate management of operational. international water instruments international waters”, given notifications were not made. iv. Enhancing inter-agency Not advanced coordination v. Financing of costs associated with project management, coordination Partially advanced. and oversight The project supported the Results were achieved, as 4 development of a training program out of the 6 technical trainings on water development and targeted were conducted vi. Develop a training program management and general project during implementation. The management functions (contract results indicator was: management, finance, “Technical trainings held for procurement, etc.). water resources staff.” Page 48 of 58 The World Bank Zambia Water Resources Development Project (P114949) ANNEX 7- SUPPORTING EVIDENCE MAP of the 12 dams financed under the project Figure 2.MAP of the 12 dams financed under the project. Note that Kashima East (#12) and Kasamba (#2) were abandoned due to the poor geotechnical conditions of the foundation. Table 2. Courses and Participation No. of Training No. Course Location Mode of delivery Duration Remarks Participants Provider Class room Short course on UNZA IWRM Completed 1 20 Lusaka lectures and 6 weeks hydrogeology Centre Successfully some field work Class room Short course on UNZA IWRM Completed 2 20 Lusaka lectures and 6 weeks hydrology Centre Successfully some field work Class room Post Graduate UNZA IWRM Completed 3 10 Lusaka lectures and 6 months Diploma in IWRM Centre Successfully some research Class room Short Course on Dam UNZA IWRM Completed 4 12 Lusaka lectures and 6 Weeks Safety Centre Successfully some field work Contract Completed 5 Management Course Successfully for PMT 14 ACEZ Livingstone Workshop 5 days Page 49 of 58 The World Bank Zambia Water Resources Development Project (P114949) 2 Year Training for PhD University Post Nearly 6 Students UNZA IWRM Graduate complete 2 Centre Lusaka Enrollment 2 Years 4 Year Training for MSc University Post 7 4 Students UNZA IWRM Graduate Centre Lusaka Enrollment 4 Years On-going Page 50 of 58 The World Bank Zambia Water Resources Development Project (P114949) Table - 36 investments prepared under the project. New, Rehab Catchment Maximum Height of Reservoir Estimated No. of Estimated Cost USD Province Site Name or Omitted Area km2 Embankment m Area ha beneficiaries (Excluding VAT) 1 Lutwazi Rehab 5.5 9.5 7.5 463,685.44 2 Kanyanda Rehab 16.6 7.5 12 491,547.22 3 Amose Rehab 17 8.8 7.1 399,130.00 4 Mumbi New 15.4 16 32.9 198,995.51 5 Eastern Kanyanja Dam Rehab 23.1 7 5.4 453,409.00 6 Kapekesa New 29.5 15 33.6 1,898,368.00 7 Chilulu New 4.9 8.5 18.2 1,047,238.00 8 Kacholola New 2.1 15 7.1 429,471.00 9 Kawawa New 6.2 14.2 19.6 856,655.80 10 Lifalali Rehab 9.6 6 9.7 297,373.00 11 Singonya Rehab 13.4 5 18 424,450.00 12 Chibwe New 43.7 15 43.9 726,544.00 13 Siazwela Rehab 2 5.9 3.7 150,733.00 14 Siakalinda New 52.8 24.5 32.3 1,392,693.00 15 Tambana New 17.7 12 22.5 896,154.00 16 Mutwewamuntu New 33 14.3 66.7 1,441,475.53 17 Lusaka Changula New 3.9 10 12.4 523,378.00 18 Machesa New 8.5 7.5 8.9 387,386.00 19 Luansobe New 119.8 10.5 36.7 1,985,237.00 20 Mitukutuku Rehab 12.1 4 83 132,978.23 Northwestern 21 Kibwene New 2.2 12 2.57 309,643.00 22 Luapula Muyembe weir Rehab 191.5 6.5 15 749,521.00 23 Kalumwange Rehab 145 8 34.5 2,623,981.00 24 Western Mahilo Rehab 13.4 4.5 1.3 367,658.00 25 Kabombwa Rehab 12 4.2 1.5 775,562.00 26 Nangoma Rehab 785.4 9 60.4 1,158,400.00 27 Munte New 1085 6 104.8 1,373,862.00 28 Central Mbaswa Dam New 14.7 15 10.2 1,323,915.00 29 Kashitu New 76.9 9.2 10.1 2,886,109.35 30 Sanyinga New 78 11.7 51.4 2,760,636.64 Page 51 of 58 The World Bank Zambia Water Resources Development Project (P114949) 31 Lusaka Shiliya New 1347.1 9 24.7 5,057,271.00 32 Chibesakunda New 3.4 6.5 2.7 214,012.70 Muchinga 33 Munganga New 50 9.5 23.5 904,000.13 34 Akansokoshi Rehab 2.3 6.7 4 112,876.92 35 Northern Chitindi Rehab 1.7 6.5 1.1 239,143.32 36 Chief Mpande New 82 16 79.1 776,096.12 36,229,589.91 Page 52 of 58 The World Bank Zambia Water Resources Development Project (P114949) Kabwe Catchment Office, 17 of the 25 gauges plates were already installed. List of WARMA developed Regulations and access links: - Statutory Instrument No.18 of 2018- The Water Resources Management Act (Charges and Fees Regulations, 2018)- https://zambialii.org/system/files/legislation/statutory- instrument/2018/18/si_2018_18.pdf - Statuary Instrument No. 19 of 2018- - The Water Resources Management Act (Licensing of Drillers and Constructors) - https://zambialii.org/system/files/legislation/statutory- instrument/2018/19/si_2018_19.pdf - Statutory Instrument No.18 of 2018- The Water Resources Management Act (Groundwater and Boreholes)- Page 53 of 58 The World Bank Zambia Water Resources Development Project (P114949) ANNEX 8. ADEQUACY OF RISK ASSESSMENT AND MITIGATION MEASURES 1. As per the PAD’s (World Bank 213) Key Risk section, the principle risk at appraisal was “associated with the time required to conclude the current phase of the reform process and allow for establishment and organic development of the institutional arrangements envisaged under the Water Resources Management Act.” Mitigation measures for this risk were difficult to implement. As per the PAD “Limited staff numbers and increasing responsibilities coupled with an ambitious reform agenda”, was to be addressed with “an integrated project management team” and with “technical assistance and short-term support … when and where needed during implementation”25. 2. Similarly, risks related to the small dams’ subcomponent were to be mitigated as follows. Risk associated with “the large number of local interventions envisaged in small scale water resource infrastructure” including those associated with the prioritization process being determined by: “political priorities and not technical or demand driven criteria” or “prioritization not done in accordance with transparent consultative mechanism” were to be addressed with: first “the formulation of catchment plans, developing of planning tools and decision support systems, and aligned through district and provincial planning process” and “supported by remote sensing applications that will increase oversight and will be supplemented by physical verification through regular monitoring and evaluation of field sites”; and second through: “technical criteria applied to the screening of district level requests (…) formalized through adoption of technical manuals integrated as part of the PIM.” 3. In retrospective, during implementation, these mitigation measures failed. a. Regarding the PMT, there was high turnover of staff, and an under-staffed PMT (see para 69). b. Regarding the institutional reform, it was highlighted as a challenge in most of the ISRs and AMs on record and was one of the biggest issues identified by the Borrower during the ICR mission conducted in February 2019. This was not only due to the uncertainties that the reform brought to the staff working in the MMEWD/MWRSEP but also due to the agreements that were needed between WARMA and the line Ministry on the scope of the activities, TORs, etc. that precluded activities from moving forward (see para 67). c. Regarding firm consulting services and individual consulting services, these came in late. For the small dams the firm came on board in November 2015, and firm consulting services for the overall assessment of the hydro climatic network in February 2016. This was almost two years after the project became effective in December 2013. In addition, the Borrower insisted on using their own expertise for the first 12 small dams located in six of the ten Provinces only with the support of an individual consultant. This individual consultant also came on board in November 2015. d. Regarding the formulation of catchment plans and other planning tools and decision systems, as well as the remote sensing activities, these were not advanced under the project. e. Regarding the physical verification and regular monitoring, this was challenging given the location of small dams across the geography, the reluctance to use the TA support and other factors as highlighted in para 71. 25 Annex 4 of the Project Appraisal Document, 2013. Page 54 of 58 The World Bank Zambia Water Resources Development Project (P114949) f. Regarding the technical criteria applied to the screening, these technical criteria was well captured in the ESMF and the PIM, however, as explained in paras 76, it was not followed. g. Lastly, regarding the adoption of technical manuals integrated as part of the PIM, these were related to the FAO guidelines, and were to be developed in more detail under the project. However, this activity was then financed with grant support of the Africa Development Bank and was finished in 2018 (see para 35). Therefore, although it informed designs for 36 structures, it was not used for the first batch of 12 dams. 4. Mitigation measures for the risks that in retrospective materialized during implementation, namely risk related to safeguards, the institutional reform, the PMT, and the small dams’ subproject were vulnerable to failure. In addition to all factors that affected project implementation (see section below), the PAD, FA and PIM were (in retrospect) weak and ambiguous describing some of these measures. This along with insufficient back stopping with legal covenants, despite the importance of these measures, made mitigation measures weak at appraisal. Some of the inconsistencies/weaknesses on the FA, PAD, PIM: 5. While the PAD highlights that the PMT was to be composed of a project manager and component groups, and that the component groups will comprise “Component Leaders for each project component and Task Leaders for a set of discrete activity”; the Financial Agreement (FA) does not mention the Task Leaders in Section I of Schedule II. Further, although task leaders were afterwards mentioned in the PIM, these were never brought in to the PMT that remained understaffed. 6. While the FA highlights that the “Recipient shall appoint and thereafter maintain throughout Project implementation, a financial management specialist, a procurement specialist, an environmental and social safeguards management specialist, a monitoring and evaluation specialist and administrative and clerical staff, as needed, said staff with qualifications, experience, and terms of reference satisfactory to the Association”; the PAD or the PIM are unclear on the permanent need of these when describing the PMT. PAD and PIM mention that “the project will be supported by specialists as required from time to time (…) including: (i) professional st aff: environmental and social safeguards specialists (…), (ii) short term expertise: may include: planning, monitoring and evaluation (…); (iii) support staff: accountant or financial management specialist, procurement specialist…”. 7. Bullets (a) and (b), were exacerbated by the fact that civil servants were not allowed to be seconded to the project (see para 69), despite the PAD mentioning that component Leaders were to be “officials from the MMWED, or as appropriate, other institutions.” 8. Further, roles and responsibilities were not clear through the ESMF, the PIM and the FA. The Operational Guidelines of the PIM and the ESMF highlight the need for TA support on safeguards, and TA support for screening and for the prioritization processes and selection criteria of small dam. However, Section I.A.6 of Schedule 2 of the FA states that: “The Recipient may appoint, and subject in each case to the concurrence of the Association, such other technical specialists as may be needed to support the PMT in its work, including in the following areas: institutional development, dam design and construction, water resources information and management, water resources economics and planning, all with qualifications and experience satisfactory to the Association.” This factor, while showing certain inconsistencies, also points to the lack of clear roles and responsibilities vis a vis the TA and the PMT roles on safeguards and small dams. It also highlights that there was not sufficient backstopping mechanisms in the FA regarding the TA as a mitigation measure for the above said risk. Page 55 of 58 The World Bank Zambia Water Resources Development Project (P114949) 9. There were three Legal covenants regarding implementation arrangements (Project Coordinator, the Steering Committee, and the PMT) to be in accordance of Section I.A of Schedule 2; and one regarding the Project Implementation Manual to be in accordance with Section I.B of Schedule 2. None legal covenants covered the TA support or the importance of following a certain procedure for the dam selection/prioritization process. 10. Similarly, conditions of effectiveness as recorded in the Minutes of Negotiations (March 07, 2013) only covered the following: (a) a designated Project Coordinator, Appointed a Project Steering Committee and a Project Management Team. (b) the preparation and adoption of a Project Implementation Manual in accordance with the provisions of the Financing Agreement. Page 56 of 58 The World Bank Zambia Water Resources Development Project (P114949) ANNEX 9. STATUS OF OUTSTANDING MEASURES BY DAMS. No Site Social Safeguards Environment Safeguards Dam safety Cash compensation for 72 PAPs completed. ESMP and addendum ESIA in place. Remedial works to ensure safety of the dam including spillway and dam wall will be undertaken Land for Land (LFL) fpr 72 PAPs ongoing and Outstanding measures to be implemented under Phase 2 of the remedial action plan managed at the local level with the local chiefs under Phase 2 of remedial action plan. 1. Chibalashi and being followed-up by GRZ and monitored by WB. Community infrastructure identified by ARAP (Access point) to be addressed during Phase 2. Cash compensations for 1 PAP completed. ESMP in place. Remedial works to ensure safety of the dam Resettlement for 1 PAP completed. including spillway and dam wall will be undertaken Outstanding measures to be implemented under Phase 2 of the remedial action plan Land for Land (LFL) for 4 PAPs under Phase 2 of remedial action plan. 2. Chikowa ongoing and managed at the local level with the local chiefs and being followed-up by GRZ and monitored by WB. 3. Kanyika Cash compensations for 9 PAPs completed. ESMP in place. Remedial works to ensure safety of the dam including spillway and dam wall will be undertaken Land for Land (LFL) for 3 PAPs Outstanding measures to be implemented under Phase 2 of the remedial action plan ongoing and managed at the local level with the under Phase 2 of remedial action plan. local chiefs and being followed-up by GRZ and monitored by WB. Community infrastructure identified by ARAP (Access point) to be addressed during Phase 2. 4. Katembula Cash compensation for 30 PAPs completed. . ESMP and addendum ESIA in place. Remedial works to ensure safety of the dam including spillway and dam wall will be undertaken Land for Land (LFL) for 30 PAPs Outstanding measures to be implemented under Phase 2 of the remedial action plan ongoing and managed at the local level with the under Phase 2 of remedial action plan. local chiefs and being followed-up by GRZ and monitored by WB. Community infrastructure identified by ARAP (Access point) to be addressed during Phase 2. Page 57 of 58 The World Bank Zambia Water Resources Development Project (P114949) No Site Social Safeguards Environment Safeguards Dam safety 5. Makaba Cash compensation for 18 PAPs completed. . ESMP in place. Remedial works to ensure safety of the dam including spillway and dam wall will be undertaken Outstanding measures to be implemented under Phase 2 of the remedial action plan under Phase 2 of remedial action plan 6. Nabowa Cash compensation for PAPs completed. Bank ESMP in place. Remedial works to ensure safety of the dam verification pending. including spillway and dam wall will be undertaken Outstanding measures to be implemented under Phase 2 of the remedial action plan Land for Land (LFL) for 1 PAP is ongoing and under Phase 2 of remedial action plan managed at the local level with the local chiefs and being followed-up by GRZ and monitored by WB. Community infrastructure identified by ARAP (water points) to be addressed during Phase 2. 7. Nachibanga There were not identified PAPs at this site. ESMP in place. Remedial works to ensure safety of the dam including spillway and dam wall will be undertaken Outstanding measures to be implemented under Phase 2 of the remedial action plan under Phase 2 of remedial action plan 8. Ndondi There were not identified PAPs at this site ESMP in place. Remedial works to ensure safety of the dam including spillway and dam wall will be undertaken Outstanding measures to be implemented under Phase 2 of the remedial action plan under Phase 2 of remedial action plan 9. Ngolongozya There were not identified PAPs at this site ESMP in place. Remedial works to ensure safety of the dam including spillway and dam wall will be undertaken Outstanding measures to be implemented under Phase 2 of the remedial action plan under Phase 2 of remedial action plan 10. Kawiko There were not identified PAPs at this site ESMP in place. Remedial works to ensure safety of the dam including spillway and dam wall will be undertaken Outstanding measures to be implemented under Phase 2 of the remedial action plan under Phase 2 of remedial action plan Page 58 of 58