d i s c u s s i o n pa p e r n u m B e r 1 3 decemBer 2010 d e v e l o p m e n t a n d c l i m at e c h a n g e d i s c u s s i o n pa p e r s 1 58900 d e v e l o p m e n t a n d c l i m a t e c h a n g e The Social Dimensions of Adaptation to Climate Change in Bolivia d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R n U m B E R 1 3 d E c E m B E R 2 0 1 0 E c o n o m i c s o f A d A p t A t i o n t o c l i m A t E c h A n g E The Social Dimensions of Adaptation to Climate Change in Bolivia miguel morales Papers in this series are not formal publications of the World Bank. They are circulated to encourage thought and discussion. The use and citation of this paper should take this into account. The views expressed are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the World Bank. Copies are available from the Environment Department of the World Bank by calling 202-473-3641. © 2010 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/ The World Bank 1818 H St., NW Washington, DC 20433 U.S.A. Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org/climatechange E-mail: feedback@worldbank.org All rights reserved. December 2010 This paper is based upon work that has been commissioned by the World Bank as part of the Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change study. The results reported in the paper are preliminary and subject to revision. The analysis, results, and views expressed in the paper are those of the authors alone and do not represent the position of the World Bank or any of its member countries. Papers in this series are not formal publications of the World Bank. They are circulated to encourage thought and discussion. Copies are available from the World Bank Environment Department by calling 202-473-3641. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. 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For permission to photocopy or reprint any part of this work, please send a request with complete information to the Copyright Clearance Center Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, USA; telephone 978-750-4470; Internet: www.copyright.com Cover photo courtesy of World Bank. iii tABlE of contEnts AcRonyms And ABBREviAtions ix AcKnoWlEdgmEnts x 1. scopE And mEthodology of thE stUdy 1 General Approach 1 Study Phases 1 Methodological Approach to the Field Work 1 Instruments 3 Activities Undertaken 3 Participating Institutions 4 Scope and Limitations of the Methodology 5 2. BAcKgRoUnd on BoliviA 7 The Ggeneral Context 7 Location 7 Demography 7 Economy 7 Diversity 9 Climate Change 9 Institutional Status 9 3. thE institUtionAl fRAmEWoRK 11 Structure of Government 11 Powers of the Different Levels of Government 11 The Central State Level 12 The Departmental Level 13 Municipalities 13 The Indigenous Campesino Autonomies 13 Regional Autonomies 13 Civil Society 13 iv t hE sociA l d imE nsions of Ad AptAtion to c limAtE ch A ng E in B o l i v iA 4. thE Zoning of thE coUntRy in tERms of vUlnERABility to climAtE chAngE 15 The Macro-regions 15 Population by Macro-regions 15 Altitude 15 Rainfall 17 Average Temperature 17 Flood Risk 18 Human Development Indicators 18 Food Vulnerability 19 Holdridge Life Zones 20 Selection of Municipalities for the Study 21 5. livElihood stRAtEgiEs in thE stUdy AREA 28 Classification of Livelihood Strategies 28 Strategies Based on Rainfed Agriculture 28 Strategies Based on Irrigated Agriculture 28 Strategies Based on Extensive Livestock 29 Strategies Based on Intensive Livestock 29 Forestry-based Livelihood Strategies 29 Employment-based Livelihood Strategies 30 Strategies Based on Trades 30 Strategies Based on Services 30 Socioeconomic Strata 30 Livelihood Strategies by Socioeconomic Strata. 31 Temporary Migration as a Livelihood Strategy 34 Who are the Temporary Migrants? 34 Who are the Non-migrants? 34 6. climAtE chAngE in BoliviA 36 The Specialists´ Viewpoints 36 Views of the Communities 36 Change Trends in Recent Years 36 Increasing Temperatures 37 Less Water 37 Other Climate Changes 37 Future Climate Scenarios 37 Major Changes 37 Other Climate Changes 38 7. thE impActs of climAtE chAngE 39 The Effects and Impacts of Drought 39 Decrease or Loss of Crops 39 Loss of Seeds 40 Famine 40 Decreased Income 41 Disease 41 d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s v Sectors Worst Affected by Drought 42 Effects and Impacts of Flooding 42 Families Hardest Hit by Flooding 42 Effects and Impacts of Warming 43 Sensitivity of Livelihood Strategies to Climate Change 44 8. AdAptAtion to climAtE chAngE 46 Lessons from the Past 46 Responses to Extreme Weather Events 46 Autonomous Changes in Production Systems 47 Adaptation Measures 48 Classification of Adaptation Measures 48 Water Management Measures 48 Infrastructure Measures 50 Measures to Improve Livestock 50 Measures to Improve Agriculture 51 Environmental Management Measures 52 Training and Advisory Measures 52 Credit and Financing Measures 53 Measures to Improve Employment and Value-added Activities 53 Frequency of Adaptation Measures 54 Adaptation Strategies 56 General Trends 56 Adaptation Strategies for Drought 60 Adaptation Strategies for Flooding 61 Non-prioritized Measures 61 Perception of Local Authorities about Climate Change Adaptation 62 Climate Change 62 Adaptation Measures Envisaged by Municipal Authorities 63 Possible Municipal Interventions Related to Adaptation 63 Support Needed by Local Governments 64 9. sUmmARy And conclUsions 66 Climate Change 66 Climate Change Impacts 66 Livelihood Strategies to Climate Change 67 Adaptation Measures to Climate Change 67 The Local Institutional Framework 68 The View of Local Authorities 69 10. REcommEndAtions foR dEsigning policiEs in sUppoRt of AdAptAtion 70 vi t hE sociA l d imE nsions of Ad AptAtion to c limAtE ch A ng E in B o l i v iA Tables table 1. methodological instruments Used in the study 4 table 2. participating institutions 5 table 3. Bolivia: Key Economic indicators, 2007 7 table 4. 1981­2000 Average yields (tons per hectare) 9 table 5. Bolivia 2001: population by macro-regions 16 table 6. drought risk, by municipalities and macro-region 18 table 7. Risk of floods in macro-regions 18 table 8. human development index 18 table 9. food vulnerability, by macro-regions and municipalities 19 table 10. number of municipalities studied, by macro-region 22 table 11. municipalities at Risk 23 table 12. vulnerability 23 table 13. social indicators 26 table 14. population size and density 26 table 15. climate 27 table 16. holdridge life Zones 27 table 17. livelihood strategies 29 table 18. livelihood strategies in the sample 30 table 19: family Agricultural Assets by strata and macro-region 31 table 20. Effects and impacts of drought 39 table 21. Effects of climate change on yields (dry scenario) 40 table 22. family income in normal years (pampajasi community) 40 table 23. family income and drought-reduced yields of 20 percent (pampajasi community) 41 table 24. sensitivity of livelihood strategies to drought 44 table 25. sensitivity of livelihood strategies to flooding 45 table 26. spontaneous changes in Response to climate change 49 table 27. Examples of measures for Best Use of Existing Water Resources 50 table 28. Examples of Rainwater harvesting 50 table 29. Examples of improvement or Expansion of Existing systems 50 table 30. Examples of infrastructure Upgrading Adaptation measures 51 table 31. Examples of measures to improve livestock Raising systems 51 table 32. Examples of pasture management measures 51 table 33. Examples of changed measures for cropping systems 52 table 34. Examples of Agricultural soil management measures 52 d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s vii table 35. Examples of Environmental improvement Adaptation measures 53 table 36. Examples of manpower training measures 53 table 37. Examples of measures for training in Alternative occupations 53 table 38. Example of a credit and financing Adaptation measure 53 table 39. Examples of measures to improve Employment and value-added Activities 54 table 40. Average number of community Adaptation measures by macro-region 54 table 41. number of prioritized measures by type and community 55 table 42. valleys: prioritized Adaptation measures, by community 57 table 43. plains: prioritized Adaptation measures, by community 58 table 44. chaco: prioritized Adaptation measures, by community 58 table 45. Altiplano: prioritized Adaptation measures, by community 59 table 46. Adaptation strategy of the contorno calacoto community 60 table 47. order of priority for Adaptation measures 60 table 48. local Authority perceptions of the timing of climate change 62 Figures figure 1. methodological Approach Used for identifying community Adaptation measures 3 figure 2. Bolivia: map showing Eco-regions 8 figure 3. Bolivia: structure of the state 11 figure 4. structure of the national mechanism for Adaptation to climate change 12 figure 5. municipalities According to macro-region 16 figure 6. Bolivia 2001: population by Urban-rural macro-region 17 figure 7. Regional variations in Altitude 17 figure 8. Regional variations in Annual precipation 17 figure 9. Regional variations in temperature 17 figure 10. drought Risk 18 figure 11. human development indicators 19 figure 12. food vulnerability by macro-region 20 figure 13. Bolivia: life Zones identified by the pncc 20 figure 14. Bolivia: life Zones adjusted by pncc 21 figure 15. municipalities selected by macro-region 24 figure 16. municipalities selected According to Altitude 25 figure 17: socioeconomic stratification in the communities 31 figure 18: Rural families (Agricultural Assets) by strata and macro-region 32 figure 19. climate scenarios identified by communities 38 viii t hE sociA l d imE nsions of Ad AptAtion to c limAtE ch A ng E in B o l i v iA figure 20. Responses to climate hazards 47 figure 21. possible municipal investment in Adaptation 64 figure 22. comparative Analysis of Adaptation measures 64 figure 23. support Required from central government 65 boxes testimony of Aidée gimenez, president of the indian subcentral cercado, Beni 43 Abandoning the land in the ovejería community 44 ix AcRonyms And ABBREviAtions NDP National Development Plan PDM Municipal Development Plan PNCC National Climate Change Program POA Annual Operating Plan x AcKnoWlEdgmEnts The Bolivia country study for the social component was led by Carina Bachofen, under the overall guidance of Robin Mearns, in collaboration with the EACC coun- The social component of the Economics of Adaptation try team leader Ana Bucher (ENV) and country office to Climate Change (EACC) study (hereafter `study') sector liaison Ruth Llanos (LCSSO). The research was developed through the joint efforts of the World partner in Bolivia was Miguel Morales. Bank Social Development (SDV) and Environment Departments (ENV) and LCR, AFR, EAP, and SAR We could not have completed this work without the Regions of the World Bank; ESSA Technologies Ltd continuous logistical support provided by Hawanty and the International Institute for Sustainable Page (ENV), Grace Aguilar (ENV), Mustafa Development (IISD), Canada; and research institutions Pajazetovic, and Carmen Martinel (both SDV). We in Bolivia, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Ghana, Mozambique, gratefully acknowledge editorial services provided by and Vietnam. The study was undertaken by a core team John Felton, and production management provided by led by Robin Mearns and comprising Anne Kuriakose, Danielle Christophe (SDV) and Robert Reinecke. Carina Bachofen, Nilufar Ahmad and Minna Kononen (all SDV). An overall synthesis report of all six country The Bolivia country study benefitted greatly from peer reports has been prepared and is available at review comments and other feedback from World Bank www.worldbank.org/eacc. The study was designed and staff including Max Ashwill (LCSSO) and Morten implemented in close collaboration with the team leader Blomqvist (LCCBO), and from external peer reviewers for the overall EACC study (Sergio Margulis), and Ana including Richard Klein. Any remaining errors and Bucher, Laurent Cretegny, Urvashi Narain, Kiran omissions are entirely those of the country report team. Pandey, Robert Schneider (all ENV) and sector consultants. 1 1. scopE And s tU d y p hA s Es mEthodology of thE The study was conducted in four phases: stUdy 1. Preparation: The main objectives of the first phase gE nERA l App RoAch were: (a) to collect qualitative, quantitative, and illustrative secondary data related to climate change The study in Bolivia was based on the concepts and (b) to analyze previous studies undertaken in contained in the document Methodology for the Social Bolivia on climate change adaptation. Component (October 2008) prepared by the core team in 2. Sampling: The second phase, which lasted one Washington. This lists the social component objectives month, primarily consisted of constructing a climate as: to develop a methodology for estimating the costs of vulnerability zoning pattern of the entire country to adaptation strategies at the local level; to identify how serve as a basis for identifying and selecting areas for public adaptation policies can benefit the most vulnera- study. Using the reasoned sampling technique, 14 ble members of society; to identify how factors such as municipalities were selected containing the 14 com- socio-economic status, gender and poverty impact on munities to be targeted by the study (the "study vulnerability to climate change; and to ascertain local communities"). Chapter 4 contains a detailed expla- perceptions of the costs and benefits of climate change nation of the sampling procedure and the character- adaptation in different agro-ecological zones. istics of each of the selected municipalities. 3. Field work: The field work was undertaken over a In the Bolivia study the methodology focused on: period of three months, consisting of three activi- ties: (a) designing tools for field work; (b) identifi- · The local level, i.e., communities and cation, recruitment and training of researchers; and municipalities; (c) information collection in the field through inter- · The poorest and most vulnerable communities and views and workshops. social groups; 4. Reports: The final phase involved processing and · Participatory analysis, involving the most vulnerable analyzing the information and drafting the Final sectors in the analysis of adaptation measures; Report. · Existing adaptive responses, to retrieve knowledge and previous experiences; m Et h o d o l o g i cAl Ap p Ro A c h to · `Soft' and `hard' adaptation measures; t hE f iE l d W o R K · Bottom-up approximation, prioritizing data collec- tion in the field; While the literature provided important references, the · Triangulation of different sources of information. main source of information for the study was field work. 2 t hE sociA l d imE nsions of Ad AptAtion to c limAtE ch A ng E in B o l i v iA This involved visiting communities and homes in rural With this information, communities were in a areas to organize workshops and conduct interviews better position to consider what the future climate locally. situation might be in their areas. A number of different scenarios were analyzed and the scenario Our field work generated two types of information: considered to be "most probable" by the community was awarded priority. 1. Basic information: mainly descriptions of livelihood strategies, socio-economic conditions, vulnerability 2. Possible impacts to climate change, etc. 2. Information on adaptation measures: Identification of Individual communities were asked to reflect on the the views held by the campesinos and others with possible impacts of their prioritized climate regard to adaptation measures, and participatory scenario. The different ways in which the commu- construction of scenarios and strategies to address nity and households would be affected by the climate change. climate scenario were thus identified. Communities also identified the livelihoods which were likely to The basic information was generated through surveys, be most vulnerable to climate change. interviews and workshops, employing the traditional PRA (Participatory Rural Appraisal) research technique. 3. Adaptation measures Information on adaptation measures required the devel- In focus groups and community workshops the opment of specific tools based on Participatory Analysis adaptation measures needed for addressing the methodology. This methodology, developed for work in prioritized scenarios were identified and rural communities, is deployed to help local people to analyzed. This process took the form of an initial produce consensual and hierarchical responses to new brainstorming followed by an analysis and detailed problems or hypothetical situations. In our specific case, description of each measure in order to provide a the methodology was used for participatory identifica- basis for subsequent cost calculations. tion of climate scenarios and to formulate adaptation strategies to cope with climate change. Once the key measures had been identified the community proceeded to arrange them according to The methodological approach for identifying adaptation priority of implementation1. Communities based measures was as follows: their list of priorities on a range of different criteria such as: 1. Climate scenarios · Urgency: "Does the measure need to be effected The field work commenced by constructing climate immediately?" scenarios with the assistance of the population, · Importance: "Will this measure resolve our most raising questions such as: "What will climate pressing problems?" change be in our community?" · Timing: "What is the right time to implement this measure? What conditions need to be met prior to Efforts were also made, for example, to get the implementation?" communities to identify the climate trends · Feasibility: "Can this measure be implemented in observed over the last 20 to 30 years (e.g.: "How practice, given current availability (or not) of has the climate changed since our childhood?"). resources and technology?" This led to the analysis of specific indicators. The communities were informed of the results of 1 This process of prioritization of measures is common in the rural communities of Bolivia, since according to law the communities must studies and climate models for the whole country identify and prioritize the investments of their respective municipal and the particular region. governments. d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 3 figURE 1. mEthodologicAl AppRoAch UsEd foR idEntifying commUnity AdAptAtion mEAsUREs Dynamics of observed changes Technical information Participatory design of climate scenarios Visualization of impacts and effects Past experiences Technical information Cost calcuation of measures Participatory design of adaptation measures · Coverage: "How many families will benefit from A c t i v i t iE s U n dE RtA K E n the measure?" In the course of the study we undertook the following After the adaptation measures had been prioritized, we activities: proceeded to quantify the cost of each of them. · 14 workshops with municipal authorities. In each The above methodological approach is outlined in the municipality we worked with the Mayor or City following diagram: Council President and also interviewed senior municipal technical staff (e.g., the Chief Executive English translations: Top left: "Dynamics of observed Officer). changes; top right, "Technical information; center, · We interviewed 42 key informants. In each munici- "Participatory design of climate scenarios; middle row, pality we interviewed three informants who were left to right, "Past experiences," "Visualization of well informed about municipal and/or environmen- impacts and effects," and "technical information;" tal issues. These informants, all permanent resi- bottom center: "Participatory design of adaptation dents of the municipalities, were professionals of measures." Bottom right: "Cost calcuation of measures." one kind or another (e.g., teachers and technical staff) or representatives of social organizations. inst RUmE nts · 70 families were interviewed with a view to collect- ing their life stories. We interviewed five families in The instruments used in the course of field work each community. The selection of households was consisted of workshops, key-informant interviews, and done randomly, the only obligatory requirement direct observation in the municipalities studied: being to ensure participation in the interview by the 4 t hE sociA l d imE nsions of Ad AptAtion to c limAtE ch A ng E in B o l i v iA tABlE 1. mEthodologicAl instRUmEnts UsEd in thE stUdy Item Instrument Aim Application 00 guide introducing the study to present the EAcc study to local authorities and At the beginning of each interview and containing information communities on climate change in Bolivia 01 inventory of institutions to ascertain the number and characteristics of public and one enquiry form per municipality, working in the municipality private institutions working in the municipality based on secondary information 02 Quantification of municipal to ascertain the amount of municipal investment over the one enquiry form per municipality, investments in climate past three years in water management or environmental based on secondary information change schemes 03 interviews with municipal to gauge the perception of the local authorities with interview with the mayor, city authorities regard to climate change in the municipality and to the council president and / or senior possible adaptation measures to be implemented official 04 identification and description to learn about the features of the communities in the Applied in five representative of communities in the municipality according to environmental, socio-economic communities of the municipality, municipality production and productive criteria. based on secondary information and interviews 05 interview guide for use with to learn the perceptions of the best- informed members three to five interviews per key informants of the municipality regarding climate change, livelihood municipality with key informants strategies, and the community's vulnerability to climate change. 06 guide to community to organize a community workshop to identify trends in five forms per community workshop on participatory climate change, to identify climate scenarios for the completed at a community construction of adaptation future, to analyze the possible impacts of climate change, workshop measures and to identify and prioritize adaptation measures 07 guide to focus group to use focus groups to identify adaptation measures three focus groups per community workshop on participatory based on the prioritized scenarios representing the three main construction of adaptation livelihood strategies in the measures community. 08 family interview guide for to obtain an accurate picture of families on the basis of five family interviews per researching life stories socioeconomic criteria; to identify past family coping community, involving visits to each actions after climate-induced accidents; to ascertain the household and interviews in the roles of family members; to discuss possible adaptation presence of the entire family. measures to be taken by families. 09 form for quantifying costs of to quantify the costs (in local prices) of the adaptation one record slip for each measure adaptation measures measures identified by the communities 10 guide to drafting community report whole family. Each interview lasted an average of · At the conclusion of the second phase of the study two hours. we organized a "national workshop" with experts · 45 workshops were conducted with focus groups. In from the country's different macro-regions. This each community between three to four focus groups provided an opportunity for discussing the main were identified and classified according to liveli- findings of the study and for analyzing the climate hood strategies. Each focus group consisted of six to scenarios and life strategies prevailing in each eight persons. The focus group work lasted three to macro-region. four hours per group. · 14 community workshops were organized, with par- pA Rt i c i pAt i n g i n s t i tU t i o n s ticipation by all the members (men and women) of the community. Each community workshop lasted The collection of field information was undertaken by an average of six hours. The workshops were useful private development institutions selected for their for checking key information obtained from field known expertise in research studies, project execution, work and for identifying and prioritizing adaptation and on-the-ground knowledge of the municipalities. measures. Each institution provided a team of four researchers d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 5 who were to be responsible for undertaking all the regarding the magnitude of future climate change. Our respective tasks. The researchers received training in La methodology was therefore based on projections which Paz on the implementation of all the tools contained in reflected the trends in climate change as observed by the the methodology. communities. This approach obviously had limitations but was deemed to be the most reliable at the time. The institutions described in Table 1 were responsible for the field work. Sample size: The most important limitation of the study was without doubt the sample size. We consider that scop E A nd limitAtions of the sample used was too small to adequately represent th E mEthodology the situation on a broader nationwide basis. The obvi- ous outcome is that it is not possible to undertake Given that this was a qualitative study aimed at ascer- statistical analysis with the results of the study, and taining the perception of the population on a new topic, much less to project the results onto a larger the methodology naturally reflected the scope and limi- canvas. The numerical data obtained from the study can tations germane to this type of study. The main limita- only be used as reference material. tions were: Sample selection: The sample was selected by considering Available information: The adaptation measures identi- vulnerability to climate change criteria. For this reason fied were the result of the technical information avail- we chose precisely the most vulnerable municipalities. able to the communities and represented their views at This means that adaptation measures and associated that particular moment in time. These views might costs do not represent the situation of the "average" have been erroneous or biased, but they nevertheless municipalities. It is probable that in a municipality were accepted as forming the basis of all the decisions which is not as vulnerable as those studied the costs made by the communities. associated with adaptation measures could be lower. Uncertain climate data: The scenarios of the models are Community level: The methodology was applied at the contradictory and vague, and no certainties exist individual community level and the measures identified tABlE 2. pARticipAting institUtions Institution Study Municipalities Macro-region tarija Aclo foundation El puente (tarija) valleys chuquisaca Aclo foundation tarvita (chuquisaca) valleys potosi Aclo foundation vitichi (potosí) valleys cordillera cipcA (centre for Research and campesino development) charagua (santa cruz) chaco villa vaca guzman (chuquisaca) chaco Beni cipcA san ignacio de moxos (Beni) plains iphAE (institute for man, Agriculture and Ecology) san pedro (pando) plains cEpAc (Rural Agricultural promotion centre) yapacani (santa cruz) plains ciAt (center for tropical Agronomy Research) saipina (santa cruz) plains isA Bolivia (Bolivia socio-Environmental institute) carangas curawara (oruro) Altiplano porco (potosí) Altiplano sicaya (cochabamba) valleys sEmtA (multiple services for Appropriate technologies) pucarani (la paz) Altiplano calacoto (la paz) Altiplano 6 t hE sociA l d imE nsions of Ad AptAtion to c limAtE ch A ng E in B o l i v iA at this level effectively constituted that community's Focus on adaptation: Given that the focus of the study adaptation measures and strategies. "Multicommunity" was to identify measures that would enable families to adaptation measures were not identified. This was, for continue living in their communities, the communities example, the case of river or catchment basin (cuenca) did not consider the idea of temporary or permanent management. This was analyzed in the communities as migration as a viable adaptation measure. In practice it one of the few options for improving the flow recovery is likely that migration will continue to grow apace, of catchment basins and rivers, to inhibit erosion and and it is incumbent on the state to consider the invest- reduce the effects of flooding. But such measures were ments needed to track and provide support to such not prioritized because they required the agreement of migrants. all the communities occupying the respective basin. In cost terms this limitation is important because the costs Short-term horizon: The study initially sought to design involved in multicommunity adaptation measures tend adaptation measures for the next 50 years, but in the to be significantly higher than for those involving only field tests it was found that this was a very distant hori- individual communities. zon due to the lack of accurate climate scenarios and the substantial and numerous uncertainties impacting Private level: No measures were identified for which the the life of rural communities. People living in the state should take responsibility for adaptation measures. communities regarded a period of 10 to 15 years as Communities reflected on how to adapt to the measures "long term." To ensure achievable and concrete measures themselves and not how the state should intervene. As a of the right magnitude, it was therefore decided to limit result, we were unable to identify any investments the time horizon to 15 years. designed to improve government services, such as providing timely and adequate humanitarian assistance Rural areas: Priority was given to the study of munici- in the event of flooding or drought, or the provision of palities in rural areas where the population is more better health care or education. Communities also vulnerable. Urban areas are also subject to climate raised the need to switch their crops and livestock to change, but the problems involved in addressing varieties and breeds that would adapt better to climate climate adaptation in such areas are bound to be change but failed to identify any measures or invest- different. This is a challenge that needs to be ments that the state should undertake to develop the addressed by a specific study employing a different required types of genetic material for the communities. methodology. 7 2. BAcKgRoUnd on BoliviA covers a large land area, with a population density of only 10 people per square kilometer, the lowest in the entire continent. Around 40 percent of the population thE gEnERA l cont Ext lives in rural areas. The largest city is Santa Cruz, with a population of just over 1.7 million. location Economy Bolivia is a landlocked country located in the heart of South America. It borders on Brazil, Peru, Argentina, The annual per capita income (GDP per capita) is Chile, and Paraguay.s US$1,363 (2007) which makes Bolivia the poorest country in Latin America. According to the last popu- demography lation census (2001), some two thirds of the population live in poverty, and the remaining third in `extreme' Bolivia currently has about 10.4 million inhabitants, poverty. with an annual growth rate of 2.7 percent. The country tABlE 3. BoliviA: KEy Economic indicAtoRs, 2007 Indicator Unit 2007 gross domestic product (current prices) Us$ million 13,395 growth (1) percentage 4.56 Accumulated inflation percentage 11.73 Exchange Rate national currency to Us$ 7.90 Average Annual fluctuation in Exchange Rate percentage (4.28) Unemployment percentage 5.18 current Account Balance Us$ million 1,758 External debt Us$ million 2,183 gross fixed capital formation Us$ million 2,162 private consumption Us$ million 8,469 public consumption Us$ million 1,883 per capita gdp Us$ 1,363 Sources: Latin American Integration Association; International Monetary Fund; National Institute of Statistics; Bolivian Central Bank. 8 t hE sociA l d imE nsions of Ad AptAtion to c limAtE ch A ng E in B o l i v iA figURE 2. BoliviA: mAp shoWing Eco-REgions Bolivia has a limited domestic market with low very low, with average yields of traditional crops 50 purchasing power and a small industrial sector, with percent lower than those in the rest of Latin America. domestic demand largely met by imports. The economy is based on the export of minerals and hydrocarbons, According to National Institute of Statistics, data labor activities generating over 50 percent of national revenue productivity in the agricultural sector is six times lower but employing few people. Agricultural productivity is than in the rest of the country's economy. d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 9 Program (PNCC), all the Andean glaciers, a source of tABlE 4. 1981­2000 AvERAgE yiElds drinking water and energy for some major cities like La (tons pER hEctARE) Paz and El Alto (which are over 40 percent dependent on these sources), are experiencing rapid meltdown. Wheat Corn Potato Quinoa Bolivia 0.8 1.7 4.9 0.5 Climate models developed for this study (water compo- south 1.9 2.4 2.12 0.6 nent) show that average temperatures are on the America increase. The rainfall pattern has undergone changes, france 6.3 7.4 33.7 0 with the rainy season getting shorter but stormier. Source: FAO 2002 As a result, the Altiplano (high plateau), the inter- Andean valleys, and the Chaco, inhabited by three- quarters of Bolivia's population, are experiencing a rapid diversity process of desertification,3 with areas of desert becom- ing larger and rivers and catchment areas drying up. Bolivia possesses the largest "indigenous" population of all South America, consisting of 36 ethnic groups, The country as a whole is highly susceptible to drought, settled mainly in rural areas. These groups reflect the since only 15 percent of all agricultural land is irrigated, country's rich cultural diversity.2 with the remainder depending on rainfall--which in most parts of the country is only seasonal (four months Bolivia is also characterized by wide-ranging agro- a year). ecological diversity with territory stretching from the Andes to the Amazon jungle. The country contains at The Amazon region of Bolivia is also experiencing a least 16 major eco-regions that range in height from higher incidence of drought as well as increased 300 to 6500 meters above sea level and which possess a frequency and intensity of flooding during the rainy broad range of vegetation (forests, savannas, steppes, season. scrubland etc) and climates (varying from cold and dry to humid and warm). institutional status Since pre-colonial times each eco-region has been Bolivia has a democratic government. The current inhabited by indigenous peoples, mainly small farmers President is Evo Morales, a representative of the and livestock raisers but also hunters and fishermen, all campesinos and `native' indigenous peoples. Morales was of whom have developed a wide range of long term reelected in December 2009 with a majority of 65 sustainable life strategies in harmony with their percent, the largest in the country's history. environment. During his first term, President Morales oversaw the Population growth and climate change in recent years drafting and adoption of a new State Political have however brought into question this sustainability. Constitution, aimed at initiating a process of broad New generations now find it difficult to eke out a living social and political inclusion of indigenous peoples and in their ancestral lands and are experiencing profound campesinos. crises owing to the weakened capacity of the ecosystem. It is clear that important changes will need to be made to all the production systems, which obviously will involve changes in the rural population's livelihood strategies. 2 The exact number of indigenous inhabitants in Bolivia is not known. However the 2001 Census showed that around 40 percent of the popu- lation communicate in a language other than Spanish. This has to be climate change treated with some caution since the language spoken does not necessar- ily imply that the speaker belongs to a particular ethnic group, as in the case of indigenous people who live in cities and communicate with one Climate change is already apparent throughout most of another in Spanish. the country. According to the National Climate Change 3 PNCC: Climate Change in Bolivia, page 83. 10 t hE sociA l d imE nsions of Ad AptAtion to c limAtE ch A ng E in B o l i v iA The Morales government also significantly revamped industrialized countries. As a result, the Bolivian Bolivia's foreign policy. In the environmental area the government calls for more stringent action to address new policy has embraced the concepts of climate debt the causes and effects of this problem, including efforts that cast responsibility for global warming on to formulate a binding multilateral instrument. 11 3. thE institUtionAl A schematic representation of the new state structure can be seen in the chart below: fRAmEWoRK p o W E Rs o f t hE di f f E R En t st RUctURE of govERnmE n t l E v El s o f g o v E Rn mE n t With the approval of the new Constitution of the State The recently adopted Constitution sets out the respon- of Bolivia, the overall structure of the state is organized sibilities of the different levels of government. as follows: central government, nine departmental governments (with the right to autonomy) and 327 The Central Level possesses normative, regulatory, and autonomous municipalities. The Constitution also executive powers to deal with biodiversity and the envi- provides for indigenous and regional autonomous areas ronment. It has the power to define overall policies and (autonomies) within departmental boundaries. Under the to implement programs and projects throughout the constitution, each level of self-government has the same country. At the same time, the Constitution states that hierarchical structure and is entitled to take decisions a number of responsibilities in these areas are to be independently of any government. exercised concurrently and shared with the autonomous figURE 3. BoliviA: stRUctURE of thE stAtE National government Departmental government Departmental government Departmental government Regional government Municipal government Municipal government Municipal government Municipal government Indigenous authority Indigenous authority [The lines in this graph represent connectivity not dependency]. 12 t hE sociA l d imE nsions of Ad AptAtion to c limAtE ch A ng E in B o l i v iA territorial entities, i.e., the departmental, municipal and The formulation of national climate change policy is autonomous indigenous governments. the responsibility of the Ministry of Environment and Water Resources which, through the Vice-Ministry of Adaptation actions with regard to climate change are the Environment, Biodiversity and Climate Change, defined at the central and sub-national levels within aims to promote and implement policies, legislation, their respective jurisdictions. plans, programs, and projects related to climate change. Jointly with other government entities and thE cE ntRAl stAtE lE vEl departmental governments, the Vice-Ministry is also responsible for developing the National Climate According to DS No. 29894 of February 7, 2009, the Change Program (PNCC), tasked with formulating and current organizational structure of what is now called implementing measures for adaptation to, and mitiga- the "Plurinational State of Bolivia" makes the Ministry tion of, climate change, and for monitoring the interna- of Foreign Affairs the entity responsible, jointly with tional environmental and climate change agenda. other relevant bodies, for defending and protecting the natural resources of the state, including water resources. The PNCC has formulated the National Mechanism for Adaptation to Climate Change, "which is essentially Meanwhile, the Ministry of Development Planning is in line with the National Development Plan (NDP) charged with formulating and presenting policies for and consists of a long-term strategy aimed at establish- science, technology, innovation, and the enhancement of ing the actions and results expected of it as a tool for local knowledge, in cooperation with the autonomous formulating a structured response to global warming and decentralized territorial entities. through adaptation." figURE 4. stRUctURE of thE nAtionAl mEchAnism foR AdAptAtion to climAtE chAngE Sectoral programs Security and Water resources Settlements Health Ecosystems sovereignty Capacity-building and Scientific investigation Adaptation measures awareness-raising Anthropological measures and ancestral knowledge Stakeholder consultations Prefectures Municipalities NGOs Universities Producer associations Feeedback Source: PNCC, 2007 d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 13 The mechanism is basically a set of adaptation be registered in the PDM, with the details available for programs to deal with water resources, food security and public scrutiny. sovereignty, human settlements and irrigation manage- ment, health, ecosystems, research and training. It The communities themselves are responsible for defining involves practitioners from both the public and private the type of investments to be undertaken by the munici- sectors operating within an institutional framework, as pal government, meaning that efforts to mobilize local illustrated in Figure 4: resources for climate adaptation will necessarily involve convincing both the mayor and the wider community of thE dE pARtmEntAl lEv El the need for the relevant initiatives to be financed. The prefectures (or departmental governments) are at t hE in d i gE n oUs c Am pE s i n o present engaged in a re-structuring process in prepara- A U TO N O M I E S tion for assuming the responsibilities assigned to them under the new Constitution. Within this context local The Constitution provides that the indigenous prefectures are required to establish a Departmental campesino autonomous areas (autonomies) shall, within Service or Division responsible, inter alia, for preparing their territorial jurisdiction, possess exclusive responsi- and implementing departmental land use and environ- bility for their own land and environmental manage- mental protection policies in line with national ment and promotion of agricultural development (Art. policy. This entity will probably be charged with leading 304). These autonomous areas are not in operation to on climate change policies in Bolivia´s departments. date, but on December 6, 2009, a total of 11 municipali- ties chose to transfer their "municipal" autonomous Prefectural investments are governed by the status to that of "original indigenous" autonomies and Departmental Development Plan, which is drawn up were to (in April 2010) elect transitional authorities in with the participation of citizens and institutions. advance of the approval and entry into force of the new territorial entities. mU nicipAliti E s R Eg i o nA l A U TO N O M I E S At the local level, municipal governments are responsi- ble for preparing and implementing planning policies, The Constitution also establishes the possibility of environmental protection, and promotion of human creating autonomous regions, to be established within development within their territorial areas. The design departments by clustering municipal territo- and implementation of policies and projects for adapta- ries. Regional autonomous authorities will possess tion to climate change are required to be consistent powers delegated to them by the prefectures (i.e., with national and departmental policies. further decentralizing regional government). In December 2009 the province of Gran Chaco, for exam- The formulation of policies, projects, and budgets by ple, opted for regional autonomy and discussions are local governments embraces the concept of "'participa- underway on the modalities which will govern elections tory planning." This mechanism is intended to make it for its regional authorities. possible for all citizens residing in a municipality to participate in the design of the Municipal Development c i v i l so c iE t y Plan (PDM) and Annual Operating Plan (POA), both of which govern all investments at the municipal Keen participation by citizens in public investment level. In each community the neighborhood council decisions at all levels of government, particularly in the assembles residents once a year (in the case of the POA) municipalities, is widespread. In the case of the regional and once every five years (in the case of PDM) to and autonomous campesino indigenous areas, a good decide upon and prioritize the investments to be under- chance exists of them also opting for public participa- taken by a municipal government in its particular terri- tion in the planning processes along the same lines as tory. According to law all municipal disbursements must the municipalities. 14 t hE sociA l d imE nsions of Ad AptAtion to c limAtE ch A ng E in B o l i v iA This implies that for the state to invest in climate Notwithstanding the above, social organizations are change adaptation measures, citizens must be in a posi- convinced that that they are bearers of a rich ancestral tion to prioritize both their requirements and projects. experience of adaptation to climate change and argue that this experience should be put at the service of the Civil society institutions (NGOs and research centers) state and NGOs. have to date worked in isolation on climate change issues. This work has mainly been in the form of stud- The Bolivian Platform for Climate Change, bringing ies, knowledge of which has failed to filter down to the together some fifty institutions (NGOs) and social relevant interested individuals and institutions. organizations, was established in February 2009. 15 4. thE Zoning of thE climate, contain the departments of Santa Cruz, Beni, Pando, and parts of La Paz and Cochabamba coUntRy in tERms of departments. vUlnERABility to climAtE chAngE Each municipality can be classified according to the macro-region in which it is located, as detailed in the map below. thE mA cRo-RE gions population by macro-regions In view of its socio-agrobiological characteristics Bolivia can be divided into four separate macro-regions: According to the 2001 Population Census, the present population in the municipalities of each macro-region is · Highlands: At a height of over 3,500 meters above sea as follows: level, the highlands the (high plateau or "Altiplano" and the Andes mountain chain) contain municipali- The Valleys Region contains 42 percent of the total ties such as La Paz, Oruro, Potosí, and Cochabamba. population, followed by the Plains Region with 29 The climate is generally cold and dry. This macro- percent. The 2001 Census also indicates that 62 percent region can be further divided into two sub-regions: of Bolivia's population is urban (living in towns of over the northern and southern regions, with the former 2,000 inhabitants). The same proportion is maintained subject to the highest humidity. in all macro-regions, except in the Plains Region, where · Valleys: Located in the foothills of the eastern three quarters of the population is urban. mountains, the height of the inter-Andean valleys ranges from 1,000 to 3,500 meters above sea level. Altitude The valleys fall within the departments of La Paz, Cochabamba, Potosí, Chuquisaca, Tarija, and Santa One of the prominent features of Bolivia is the enor- Cruz. The climate is temperate. Again, this area mous variation of altitude. The following chart can be divided into two regions: the `dry' valleys compares the different altitudes above sea level of the and the more humid Yungas (including the Yungas capitals of each municipality per macro-region. It is of La Paz and the Chaparé de Cochabamba). clear that Bolivia´s four regions differ in terms of · The Chaco: Located in the south east, this area-- average altitude. It is also worth noting that the with a hot, dry climate--is less thanr 1,000 meters valleys, at an average height of 2,500 meters, present above sea level and contains the departments of significant variations in altitude in view of their Tarija, Chuquisaca, and Santa Cruz. special topography, whereas the Plains Region is more · The plains (llanos): In the northeast, lying at under uniformly flat. 1,000 meters height and with a warm, humid 16 t hE sociA l d imE nsions of Ad AptAtion to c limAtE ch A ng E in B o l i v iA figURE 5. mUnicipAlitiEs AccoRding to mAcRo-REgion Note: Chaco = dry lowland, Llanos Amazonia = Amazonia plains, Tierras altas = highlands, Valles Yungas = Yungas valleys. tABlE 5. BoliviA 2001: popUlAtion By mAcRo-REgions Urban Rural Total Percent Altiplano 1,146,046 1,004,237 2,150,283 26 valleys 2,106,205 1,466,618 3,572,823 42 chaco 127,121 167,259 294,380 3 plains 1,806,052 596,050 2,402,102 29 All regions 5,185,424 3,234,164 8,419,588 100 percent 62 38 100 Source: Authors d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 17 figURE 6. BoliviA 2001: popUlAtion figURE 8. REgionAl vARiAtions By URBAn-RURAl mAcRo-REgion in AnnUAl pREcipAtion Categ. Box & Whisker Plot: Annual precipitation (mm) 1,466,618 4500 4000 596,050 3500 1,004,237 3000 2,106,205 2500 Precipitation 1,806,052 1,146,046 2000 167,259 1500 127,121 Highlands Valleys Dry lowland Plains 1000 500 Urban Rural 0 Source: Authors ­500 Highlands Valleys Dry lowland Plains Macrozones Median 25%­75% Min­Max figURE 7. REgionAl vARiAtions in AltitUdE Average temperature Categ. Box & Whisker Plot: Altitude (m.s.n.m.) 5000 The following table, derived from data observed or 4500 calculated from isothermal curves, shows the mean 4000 annual temperature in the capital of each municipality. 3500 Marked differences exist between the four 3000 2500 Altitude 2000 1500 1000 500 figURE 9. REgionAl vARiAtions 0 in tEmpERAtURE ­500 Highlands Valleys Dry lowland Plains Categ. Box & Whisker Plot: Macrozones Temperature annual median (ºC) 35 Median 25%­75% Min­Max 30 25 Temperature ºC 20 15 Rainfall 10 The following chart (by macro-region) shows the aver- 5 age annual rainfall recorded (or calculated from isohyets 0 curves) in the capital of each municipality. The munici- Highlands Valleys Dry lowland Plains palities in the Altiplano have the lowest rainfall levels Macrozones Median 25%­75% Min­Max (average 450 mm), whereas in the Plains rainfall exceeds 1,000 mm. 18 t hE sociA l d imE nsions of Ad AptAtion to c limAtE ch A ng E in B o l i v iA years. The table below compares flood risks for the figURE 10. dRoUght RisK macro-regions. Medium to none 30% tABlE 7. RisK of floods 20% in mAcRo-REgions 10% Flood Risk 0% Zero to Total Average High Very High Municipalities valleys 37% 1% 0% 38% Very high High chaco 5% 0% 0% 5% Valleys Dry lowland Highlands Plains Altiplano 29% 4% 3% 35% plains 6% 6% 10% 21% total 77% 10% 13% 100% municipalities tABlE 6. dRoUght RisK, By mUnicipAlitiEs And mAcRo-REgion The above table shows that 13 percent of the municipal- ities run "very high" flood risks. Most of these are found Drought Risk in the Plains region. No municipalities in the Chaco or Zero to Total average High Very high municipalities the Valleys are exposed to "very high" risk of flooding. valleys 14% 24% 0% 38% chaco 1% 4% 0% 5% human development indicators Altiplano 5% 23% 8% 35% plains 21% 0% 0% 21% The following tables are based on HDI data compiled total 41% 51% 8% 100% for 2001 by UNDP. 25% of municipalities with the municipalities lowest HDI are in the first quartile (Table 8). Quartile 1 (with the lowest HDI) and Quartile 2 municipalities are located virtually exclusively in the macro-regions. Whereas the average annual temperature Valleys and Altiplano, indicating that poverty in Bolivia is lowest in the Altiplano and highest in the Plains, is concentrated on these macro-regions. temperatures vary significantly within each macro-region. tABlE 8. hUmAn dEvElopmEnt Eight percent of Bolivia´s municipalities run a "very indEx high" risk of drought. These are all located in the Altiplano. 51 percent, mainly municipalities in the Human Development Index Valleys and Altiplano, are at "high risk.". 80 percent of Quartile Quartile Quartile Quartile Total the Chaco municipalities are at "high risk" and those in 1 2 3 4 Municipalities the Plains run "low" or "zero" risk of drought. valleys 15% 8% 8% 7% 38% chaco 0% 1% 1% 2% 5% flood Risk Altiplano 10% 13% 9% 3% 35% plains 0% 3% 6% 13% 22% Flood risk figures have been prepared by WFP, based on total 25% 25% 25% 25% 100% municipalities data obtained from the municipalities over recent d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 19 figURE 11. hUmAn dEvElopmEnt indicAtoRs Categ. Box & Whisker Plot: Categ. Box & Whisker Plot: Human development index Life expectancy 0.75 75 0.70 70 0.65 65 0.60 60 Expectancy 0.55 55 HDI 0.50 50 0.45 45 0.40 0.35 40 0.30 35 Highlands Valleys Dry lowland Plains Highlands Valleys Dry lowland Plains Macrozones Macrozones Median ±SD ±1.98*SD Median 25%­75% Min­Max Illiteracy rate (left chart). the diagram indicates that the highest Categ. Box & Whisker Plot: levels of illiteracy (2001 data) exist in the valleys, followed by the Illiteracy rate Altiplano and chaco. 0.9 Life expectancy at birth (upper right). While this indicator reveals a 0.8 more homogeneous situation throughout the country, the lowest 0.7 levels of life expectancy at birth are nevertheless in the Altiplano and valleys. 0.6 0.5 Illiteracy 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 Highlands Valleys Dry lowland Plains Macrozones Median 25%­75% Min­Max food vulnerability tABlE 9. food vUlnERABility, By The Food Vulnerability Map published by the WFP mAcRo-REgions And mUnicipAlitiEs provided the basis for the following table (table 9). Food Vulnerability Total Figure 12 shows that 53 percent of Bolivia´s municipal- Low Average High Municipalities ities present a high level of food vulnerability. This is valleys 9% 10% 19% 38% particularly the case of municipalities in the Altiplano chaco 2% 3% 1% 5% and Valleys. Altiplano 2% 6% 27% 35% plains 10% 5% 6% 21% total 23% 24% 53% 100% municipalities 20 t hE sociA l d imE nsions of Ad AptAtion to c limAtE ch A ng E in B o l i v iA h o l dR i d gE l i f E Z o nEs figURE 12. food vUlnERABility By mAcRo-REgion The PNCC has produced a national zoning map of the territory, drawing on variables closely related to climate Low 30% change and using the "Holdridge model," the global 25% bioclimatic scheme for the classification of land areas, to 20% identify life zones. 15% 10% The PNCC used the following methodology: "[...] 5% theoretical data for temperature and precipitation was 0% employed for each IIASA 0.5 degree geographic grid (identical to that applied for the determination of life High Medium areas according to the parameters established by Holdridge). Values were also extrapolated for certain Valleys Dry lowland Highlands Plains life areas (where there were no weather stations) from SENAMHI isotherm and isohyet maps. After figURE 13. BoliviA: lifE ZonEs idEntifiEd By thE pncc 1. Wet subtropical forest 2. Dry tropical forest 3. Wet tropical forest 4. Wet temperate forest 5. Dry temperate forest 6. Highly wet subtropical forest 7. Subtropical rainforest 8. Highly wet tropical forest 9. Highly wet cold temperate forest 10. Wet cold temperate forest 11. Subtropical thorny scrub mountain 12. Highly dry tropical forest 13. Cold temperate steppe 14. Cold temperate desert bush 15. Cold temperate desert 16. Cold temperate thorny scrub steppe d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 21 fine-tuning and updating the data, a database was As can be seen in the above map, the limits defined by constructed for inputting into the Holdridge model the model are formed by straight lines, corresponding to (1947). Given that this database included information 0.5 degree grid squares. In 2007, the PNCC presented on latitude, longitude, altitude, temperature and differ- the map of life zones with curved boundaries, ent climate scenarios, the model was able to classify constructed by combining the Holdridge model results life areas according to the various inputs. Together and the 1979 Ecological Map (See Figure 14). with the information previously described, the Holdridge model was used to determine current s E l Ec t i o n o f mUn i c i pA l i t iE s weather conditions in accordance with the IS92a5 f oR t h E s tU d y climate scenario proposed by the IPCC (PNCC 2007, Climate Change in Bolivia. p. 33)". The results, Urban-rural: The study team had to decide whether to published in 2001, are shown in Figure 13. concentrate efforts on rural or urban areas given that it figURE 14. BoliviA: lifE ZonEs AdjUstEd By pncc Life Zones Wet subtropical forest Dry tropical forest Wet tropical forest Wet temperate forest Dry temperate forest Highly wet subtropical forest Subtropical rainforest Highly wet tropical forest Highly wet cold temperate forest Wet cold temperate forest Subtropical thorny scrub mountain Highly dry tropical forest Cold temperate steppe Cold temperate desert bush Cold temperate desert Cold temperate thorny scrub steppe 22 t hE sociA l d imE nsions of Ad AptAtion to c limAtE ch A ng E in B o l i v iA was not possible to cover both areas without undermin- Additional criteria: We had to use a set of additional ing the accuracy of the results. Since we needed to give criteria in order to determine which municipalities priority to the populations most vulnerable to climate should be sampled, given that the criteria based on loca- change, it was decided to focus on Bolivia´s rural popu- tion in a particular macro-region and vulnerability to lation, where the most vulnerable groups are the indige- climate change were not sufficient for our purposes. nous campesinos. Our decision to focus on the rural Other criteria included: areas did not mean ruling out city-dwellers as also being vulnerable to climate change. It has been proven that · Life zones: representing the most diverse life zones; some Bolivian cities are indeed vulnerable, especially · Ethnicity: reflecting as much ethnic diversity as those that depend on glaciers for water supply and irri- possible; gated agriculture to supply food, as well as the urban · Population density: covering municipalities with areas located near to large rivers that overflow during large and small populations; the rainy season. In this respect we believe that the · Poverty: includinge the poorest municipalities; urban areas should be the subject of a further study. · Drought: including municipalities with the highest risk of drought; Sample size: In order to gain a minimal understanding · Flooding: including at least two municipalities at of the reality of campesino existence against a back- high risk from floods. ground of substantial agro-ecological, cultural, and socio-economic diversity (and in view of the obvious The results were as follows (see Tables 11­16 and limitations of this type of study), we decided that that Figure 15­16): the sample should cover 14 rural municipalities4, drawn from different macro-regions and taking into account existing levels of population, vulnerability and biodiversity. Main criterion: The main criterion for our sample selec- tion was that of "vulnerability to climate change," and we chose to divide municipalities into three categories of vulnerability: "high," "medium," and "low." This type of indicator is complex, combining exposure criteria and vulnerability awareness to climate risks as well as the population's response capacity, education levels, and economic situation. We decided therefore that the sample should consist only of those municipalities with "high vulnerability" to climate change. tABlE 10. nUmBER of mUnicipAlitiEs stUdiEd, By mAcRo-REgion Macro-region Number of municipalities Altiplano 4 valleys 5 chaco 2 4 The budget assigned to the social area in Bolivia was not sufficient to plains 3 allow a study to be made of the 14 municipalities with the result that total 14 the study was delayed by several months until additional funds were found. d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 23 tABlE 11. mUnicipAlitiEs At RisK Municipality Province Department Language Macro-region 1 tarvita (villa orias) Azurduy chuquisaca Quechua valleys 2 villa vaca guzman luis calvo chuquisaca spanish chaco 3 calacoto pacajes la paz Aymara Altiplano 4 pucarani los Andes la paz Aymara Altiplano 5 sicaya capinota cochabamba Quechua valleys 6 carangas curahuara sajama oruro Aymara-spanish Altiplano 7 vitichi nor chichas potosi Quechua valleys 8 porco Antonio Quijarro potosi Quechua-spanish Altiplano 9 El puente (tomayapo) mendez tarija spanish valleys 10 yapacaní ichilo santa cruz Quechua-spanish plains 11 charagua cordillera santa cruz spanish-other chaco 12 saipina manuel m. gentleman santa cruz spanish valleys 13 san ignacio moxos Beni spanish plains 14 san pedro manuripi pando spanish plains Sample by department: Chuquisaca (2 municipalities), Santa Cruz (3 municipalities), La Paz (2 municipalities), Potosi (1 municipality), Cochabamba (1 munici- pality), Oruro (1 municipality), Tarija (1 municipality), Beni (1 municipality), Pando (1 municipality). tABlE 12. vUlnERABility Municipality Vulnerability to climate change Food vulnerability Risk of drought Flood risk 1 tarvita (villa orias) high high high low 2 villa vaca guzman high Average high low 3 calacoto high Added high low 4 pucarani high high high Average 5 sicaya high high high low 6 carangas curahuara high high high low 7 vitichi high high high low 8 porco high Average high low 9 El puente (tomayapo) high Average high Average 10 yapacaní high high medium or low high 11 charagua high Average high Average 12 saipina high Average high low 13 san ignacio high high medium or low high 14 san pedro high Average medium or low high Sample: 9 municipalities with `high' food vulnerability, 11 municipalities with `very high' risk of drought, 3 municipalities with `very high' or `high' flood risk. 24 t hE sociA l d imE nsions of Ad AptAtion to c limAtE ch A ng E in B o l i v iA figURE 15. mUnicipAlitiEs sElEctEd By mAcRo-REgion Macroregions Highlands Valleys Plains Dry lowland Selected municipalities Sample by macro-region: Valleys (5 municipalities), Altiplano (4 municipalities), Plains (3 municipalities), Chaco (2 municipalities). d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 25 figURE 16. mUnicipAlitiEs sElEctEd AccoRding to AltitUdE Municipalities according to altitude In meters 26 t hE sociA l d imE nsions of Ad AptAtion to c limAtE ch A ng E in B o l i v iA tABlE 13. sociAl indicAtoRs Annual per capita Human Development Municipality Poverty incidence income (US$) Life expectancy (yrs) Index 1 tarvita (villa orias) 91.1% 1,129 54.9 0.41 2 villa vaca guzman 55.1% 966 62.6 0.54 3 calacoto 75.8% 697 58.9 0.56 4 pucarani 69.6% 612 59.8 0.52 5 sicaya 82.8% 1,048 58.8 0.47 6 carangas 69.9% 811 65.5 0.57 curahuara 7 vitichi 67.1% 601 59.5 0.50 8 porco 24.7% 1,026 60.7 0.57 9 El puente 61.8% 1,325 62.9 0.54 (tomayapo) 10 yapacaní 39.9% 1,498 65.3 0.62 11 charagua 52.0% 1,214 61.9 0.57 12 saipina 35.6% 1,497 61.5 0.59 13 san ignacio 66.3% 2,142 63.6 0.59 14 san pedro 82.6% 1,461 54.8 0.53 The sample shows 14 municipalities with an HDI below the national average (0.641). tABlE 14. popUlAtion siZE And dEnsity Population density (inhabitants per Municipality 2002 population Urban population Rural population Area (km ) 2 km2) 1 tarvita (villa 15,166 0 15,166 1,830 8.3 orias) 2 villa vaca 10,748 2,327 8,421 4,024 2.7 guzman 3 calacoto 8,818 0 8,818 3,700 2.4 4 pucarani 26,802 0 26,802 924 29.0 5 sicaya 2,235 0 2,235 256 8.7 6 carangas 5,278 0 5,278 2,296 2.3 curahuara 7 vitichi 11,298 0 11,298 1,963 5.8 8 porco 5,959 0 5,959 1,023 5.8 9 El puente 10,663 0 10,663 2,477 4.3 (tomayapo) 10 yapacaní 31,538 14,589 16,949 9,218 3.4 11 charagua 24,427 2,737 21,690 72,223 0.3 12 saipina 5,350 2,394 2,956 406 2.13 13 san ignacio 21,643 8,893 12,750 24,978 0.9 14 san pedro 1,082 0 1,082 2,623 0.4 Sample: 3 municipalities with large populations, 9 municipalities with exclusively rural populations, 1 large town in area terms, 4 municipalities with high or medi- um population. d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 27 tABlE 15. climAtE Average annual Annual precipitation Municipality Altitude (meters) temperature (mm) Climate 1 tarvita (villa orias) 2,480 15 400 temperate/ subhumid 2 villa vaca guzman 1,117 21 748 Warm humid 3 calacoto 3,900 7 400 dry cold 4 pucarani 3,846 11 550 cold 5 sicaya 2,500 17 700 dry temperate 6 carangas 3,968 5 400 cold curahuara 7 vitichi 3,020 15 394 temperate 8 porco 4,050 13 400 cold 9 El puente 2,300 17 500 temperate (tomayapo) 10 yapacaní 288 2,24 1,972 hot humid 11 charagua 735 23 900 Warm dry 12 saipina 1,360 8,20 600 Warm dry 13 san ignacio 160 2,25 1,916 hot humid 14 san pedro 267 26,0 1,920 hot humid Sample: 7 municipalities have dry climates, 4 municipalities cold climates, 4 towns in the Altiplano, 6 in low-lying areas. tABlE 16. holdRidgE lifE ZonEs Municipality Life Zone 1 Life Zone 2 Life Zone 3 LIfe Zone 4 1 tarvita (villa subtropical dry forest orias) 2 villa vaca subtropical dry forest guzman 3 calacoto cool temperate steppe 4 pucarani cool temperate rainforest temperate rain forest 5 sicaya temperate dry forest 6 carangas cool temperate steppe curahuara 7 vitichi cool temperate steppe prickly scrub cold temperate subtropical thorn steppe scrub 8 porco cool temperate steppe 9 El puente prickly scrub cold temperate (tomayapo) steppe 10 yapacaní subtropical rainforest Rainforest subtropical wet forest 11 charagua tropical dry forest subtropical dry forest tropical dry forest 12 saipina subtropical dry forest 13 san ignacio subtropical rainforest Rainforest tropical dry forest subtropical rainforest 14 san pedro subtropical rainforest 28 5. livElihood stRAtEgiEs in their livelihoods when new opportunities or constraints appear. These are frequently the result of greater or thE stUdy AREA lesser availability of resources (e.g., more capital, young adults leaving home, cattle herd reduced by death, etc.). A livelihood strategy can be described as a hierarchical combination of economic activities which generate c lA s s i f i cAt i o n o f l i vE l i h o o d resources to provide for family subsistence. s t R At E g i Es Livelihood strategies are complex because they comprise The classification below is based on the main economic a number of different economic activities, depending on and income-producing activity of households. the resources and opportunities possessed by families, as well as the constraints affecting households. strategies Based on Rainfed Agriculture One of the factors in terms of constraints and opportu- The main activity is rainfed agriculture, i.e., not requir- nities is the diverse agro-ecological nature of the land, ing irrigation. In the Altiplano and valleys this is gener- particularly regarding its soil composition and ally based on a combination of agriculture and some relief. This varies considerably, even over small areas, livestock raising. Although the main income source is e.g., within the same community separate areas may growing crops, livestock raising provides inputs as well produce vegetables, potatoes, corn, etc. As a result a as labor for the former. In the Plains and Chaco, where wide diversity of livelihood strategies can exist in the most farms are devoted solely to agricultural production, same community. this dual activity is much less common. Potatoes are generally grown in the areas with good soils and high A further aspect is that livelihood strategies are humidity, cereals in the drier areas with poorer soils, and complex. While one activity may predominate, others fruit in hot and humid areas. may also exist which, together with the main activity, combine to form the family´s or community´s livelihood strategies Based on irrigated Agriculture strategy. Families engaged in livestock raising also often devote time to cropping as well as making and selling These involve growing products that can fetch a high other products, although such families are generally market value and require irrigation to obtain competi- described as "livestock raisers" in view of their core tive returns. Such strategies tend to be specialized and income-producing activity. well integrated into the market. The main agricultural activities in this sector involve growing counter-season Livelihood strategies are also dynamic. Families may crops (potatoes, corn, onions, fruit, etc.), vegetables (in often change or rearrange the activities that underpin areas near cities) and fruit (in hot dry areas). d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 29 tABlE 17. livElihood stRAtEgiEs Sector Subsector Predominant economic activity Agricultural Agriculture With irrigation vegetables fruit counter-season crops others Without irrigation cereals potatoes others Animal husbandry Extensive cattle camelids others semi-stables cattle others forestry hunting fishing Extraction or harvesting Employment Employment local Agricultural day laborer casual labor, other jobs temporary migration seasonal agricultural work seasonal urban employment self-employed manual activities Bricklayer carpenter Blacksmith / mechanic craftsman services trade manufacturing sales transport strategies Based on Extensive livestock production. The milk-producing farms generally grow irrigated crops of alfalfa to feed the semi-stabled herds The main economic activity in this sector is free-range (supplemented by balanced feed purchased in the livestock-raising on natural pasture land. The main towns). Beef cattle, pigs, and poultry are also raised on animals in the category are cattle (in the lowlands) and a smaller scale in this category. camelids (in the Altiplano), both reared for their meat. Sheep and goats are also bred in smaller numbers. forestry-based livelihood strategies Extensive livestock raising activities are often combined with small-scale subsistence agriculture. These strategies can generally be found in the Plains Region where families have access to the biodiversity of strategies Based on intensive livestock the forests and rivers, e.g., hunting, fishing, and forest resources extraction. Small plots are also often cultivated Intensive livestock (mainly cattle) raising is undertaken for family consumption. generally in the vicinity of large cities, mainly for milk 30 t hE sociA l d imE nsions of Ad AptAtion to c limAtE ch A ng E in B o l i v iA tABlE 18. livElihood stRAtEgiEs in thE sAmplE Livelihood approach Macro-region Agricultural Agricultural and other Employment Self-employed Total n Altiplano 42% 47% 0% 11% 100% 19 chaco 50% 40% 10% 0% 100% 10 plains 86% 14% 0% 0% 100% 14 valleys 59% 37% 4% 0% 100% 27 Weighted 59% 36% 3% 3% 100% 70 average Source: Prepared with data from family interviews; (n = 70 families) Employment-based livelihood strategies self-employed. Notwithstanding the small sample size, it is clear that agriculture forms the basis for the liveli- The poorest families in the communities derive the bulk hoods of families living in the communities. A third of of their income from selling their labor as casual farm the families also supplement these activities with non- hands (jornaleros). Such families also often cultivate agricultural work. small vegetable gardens and raise a few animals. s o c i oE c o n o m i c st R AtA Other families live from the income derived from temporary migration (family members traveling to seek Socioeconomic self-stratification enabled our research- work in the cities or in other farming areas). Some ers to classify households and families in the communi- families live on the wages of one or more family ties under three main headings or strata: "poor," members who work as permanent employees of the "average," and "rich,"5 using the indicators selected by state (usually teachers) or of mining and oil companies. the communities and taking account of land tenure, livestock ownership, family social position, child strategies Based on trades employment, type of housing, etc. Other families receive the bulk of their income from a Figure 17 shows the proportion of families in the three trade practiced by one or more family member. These categories on the basis of the sample of 70 communities are people who have received technical training, usually studied. 9.2 percent of families in the community were from parents, and have a small amount of capital: considered "rich," 40.8 percent "poor," and the remain- masons, artisans (leather or ceramic products), black- ing 50 percent "average." These figures probably fail to smiths, carpenters, etc. tell the whole story since significant variations exist from one community to another. strategies Based on services The socioeconomic strata classification presented in this Some communities have families principally engaged as study is a relative and very approximate ranking services providers--mainly truck or bus-drivers, small constructed by comparing one family to another in a shopkeepers/traders, and others who make a living from renting out corn-milling equipment, etc. 5 In the study area all the families are considered to be poor according to the definition of poverty by the National Statistics Institute, and the From the above table it can be seen that fewer than sample was selected with this in mind. As a result, the description of two-thirds (59 percent) of families live from agricultural each stratum should be: the poorest, the intermediate poor, and the less poor. However, in order to make the document easier to read we activities, while the remaining third (36 percent) decided to adopt the following definitions: "poor," "average poor," and combine agricultural activities with paid jobs or are "rich" (using inverted commas). d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 31 Figure 18 shows that productive assets within each stra- figURE 17: socioEconomic tum can vary significantly, given that in each macro- stRAtificAtion in thE commUnitiEs region communities possess different productive skills. Communities in the Altiplano, for example, which raise Rich 9.2% camelids tend to own many more animals than other communities engaged in agricultural pursuits. l i vE l i h o o d s tR At E g iE s B y Poor 40.8% s o c i oE c o n o m i c s tR AtA . Medium 50.0% Livelihood strategies and socioeconomic status are closely linked. A particular livelihood strategy is governed not by what families or communities desire of Source: Prepared from Enquiry Form 4. their own free will but by a set of overriding factors that must be met. A dairy-based livelihood strategy calls, for example, for a substantial amount of capital for invest- given community (i.e. poor families in one community ing in livestock and infrastructure; such families need may differ significantly from poor families in another). irrigated land for growing fodder and to be close to markets where they can sell their milk. The capital Table 19 indicates degrees of socio-economic differenti- invested in dairy units is generally 10 to 20 times ation in the communities: the so-called "rich" own greater than that invested in rainfed agricultural units.6 between 5­10 times more assets than "poor" families, This means that only the richest families in the particularly as regards ownership of animals. community are dairy farmers, earning over ten times more than families living off rainfed agriculture.7 On the other hand, analyzing the figures by macro- region, it appears that the differences between strata are 6 Wizke Emilie: Study of production systems in the Yotala Valley, page 25. higher in the Plains. 7 Idem, page 33 tABlE 19: fAmily AgRicUltURAl AssEts By stRAtA And mAcRo-REgion Area cultivated (Ha) Livestock ownership (AUE) Macro-region Stratum Valid N Mean Std.Dev. Mean Std.Dev. Altiplano poor 20 0.8 0.7 7.14 9.13 Average 20 1.6 1.1 46.9 43.2 Rich 16 2.8 2.4 94.1 83.4 valleys poor 25 0.9 0.8 6.0 3.3 Average 25 2.2 1.5 4.14 6.4 Rich 20 4.4 3.3 37.0 7.15 plains poor 15 1.5 1.1 1.3 2.3 Average 15 4.4 5.6 5.3 9.9 Rich 15 8.5 10.8 9.13 25.0 chaco poor 10 1.2 0.8 3.1 3.4 Average 10 3.0 1.7 9.0 7.6 Rich 10 4.5 2.1 1.20 3.12 Source: Enquiry Form 4 UEB: Animal Unit Equivalent 32 t hE sociA l d imE nsions of Ad AptAtion to c limAtE ch A ng E in B o l i v iA figURE 18: RURAl fAmiliEs (AgRicUltURAl AssEts) By stRAtA And mAcRo-REgion Highlands: landholding Highlands: area cultivated 180 8 160 7 140 6 120 5 100 4 80 Hectares UEB 3 60 2 40 1 20 0 0 ­20 ­1 Poor Middle Rich Poor Middle Rich Socioeconomic strata Socioeconomic strata Median 25%­75% 25%­75% Median 25%­75% Min­Max Valleys: landholding Valleys: area cultivated 60 8 7 50 6 40 5 4 30 Hectares UEB 3 20 2 1 10 0 0 ­1 Poor Middle Rich Poor Middle Rich Socioeconomic strata Socioeconomic strata Median 25%­75% 25%­75% Median 25%­75% 25%­75% Source: Prepared from Enquiry Form 4 d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 33 figURE 18: RURAl fAmiliEs (AgRicUltURAl AssEts) By stRAtA And mAcRo-REgion Plains: landholding Plains: area cultivated 16 22 14 20 18 12 16 10 14 8 12 Hectares UEB 6 10 8 4 6 2 4 0 2 ­20 0 Poor Middle Rich Poor Middle Rich Socioeconomic strata Socioeconomic strata Median 25%­75% 25%­75% Median 25%­75% 25%­75% Dry lowland: landholding Dry lowland: area cultivated 26 8 24 7 22 20 6 18 16 5 14 4 12 Hectares UEB 10 3 8 2 6 4 1 2 0 0 ­2 ­1 Poor Middle Rich Poor Middle Rich Socioeconomic strata Socioeconomic strata Median 25%­75% 25%­75% Median 25%­75% 25%­75% Source: Prepared from Enquiry Form 4 34 t hE sociA l d imE nsions of Ad AptAtion to c limAtE ch A ng E in B o l i v iA Although separate communities possess a variety of We also discovered that migration is a practice that livelihood strategies general trends can be identified families prefer to avoid, given the uncertain outcomes. from the analysis of the results of the family interviews8 Migrants do not always find work and return to their designed to establish the relationship between socioeco- communities either penniless or sick (or both). The top nomic strata and livelihood strategy. priorities of many families in such circumstances is to avoid migration and seek to expand the productive The livelihood strategy of the "poorest" families tends to capacity of their farms. This point was put succinctly by be based on: a resident of Barrancas: · Rainfed agriculture' My husband left home to find work at sugar cane · Small-scale livestock farming; or harvest time in another area, but he suffered a lot. · Casual agricultural employment in the community Sometimes he returned sick from mosquito bites (jornaleo) and seasonal migration. and there were occasions when he returned with no money since the rains brought cutting to a halt. The strategy of the "intermediate" families revolves But we managed to irrigate our land and he around: thankfully has no longer needed to leave home for the last three years. (Interview with Maria · Rainfed and some irrigated agriculture Quispe, community of Barrancas, Valleys · Extensive livestock farming; or Region). · Casual agricultural employment and seasonal migration Who Are the temporary migrants? "Rich" families base their strategies on: The bulk of the `migrant' population consists of young men keen to end dependency on their families and earn · Irrigated (and some rainfed) agriculture; their own money. Temporary migration for them is a · Semi-stabled livestock, dairy produce, large-scale kind of rite of passage into adulthood.9 Another impor- livestock rearing; or tant group consists of smallholder (minifundista) fami- · Self-employed activities (services and trades). lies with little land (or with no land) who depend on rainfed farming but who are unable to grow enough to tEmpo RARy mig RAtion A s A support themselves. These families organize their activi- l ivElihood s tRAt Egy ties to enable one or more family members to migrate in search of work for several weeks a year. Temporary migration applies to rural family members who travel to nearby towns and cities or to mining Who Are the non-migrants? centers or other agricultural regions to seek temporary employment. The interviews revealed two categories of families where migration was not an issue: families with no need Temporary migration is now commonplace in rural to migrate and those who were unable to do so. communities. It meets a number of different needs, but the main one is to generate additional income for fami- The first category includes the less poor families in the lies back home. The general rule (exceptions exist) is community with sufficient irrigated land and/or are able that temporary migrants consist of men of working age to earn money from such activities as providing trans- leaving the communities in search of work while the port, milling services, etc. The second category generally rest of the family stays behind to care for the animals consists of: and crops. In the interviews conducted in this study we found that in all the 25 families where this practice was 8 The sample is too small to produce significant statistical data to support these trends. common temporary migration was restricted to the 9 Vargas Miriam, La migración temporal en la dinámica de la unidad domes- menfolk. tica campesina, page 150. d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 35 · Families with no adult male, as in the case of wid- In summary, temporary migration is an approach taken ows with young children; specifically by poor families with insufficient productive · The elderly, where the male is too old to seek work; resources. It is however an approach that is not open to · Families where the male has some disability that all such families for one reason or another. prevents him from working. Temporary migration should not be confused with the These families (generally the poorest, landless families traditional campesino practice of growing crops in in the community) do not possess the wherewithal to several (not necessarily contiguous) ecological zones, seek work elsewhere and family members are obliged to involving family members being away from home for work locally as casual laborers within the community. several weeks at a time. 36 6. climAtE chAngE in the communities surveyed, the study opened a debate with the communities to try and identify past medium- BoliviA and long-term climate change trends as a basis for projecting future climate scenarios. This chapter examines community views on recent manifestations of climate change in their areas and the This discussions revealed that many of the climate indi- change scenarios for the coming years. cators employed by traditional communities tend to be increasingly ineffective. Many asserted that it was no thE sp Eci A lists´ v iEW poin t s longer possible to predict weather patterns as in previ- ous generations due to the climate change process Numerous efforts are currently afoot in Bolivia to (including greater climate variability). Regardless of the develop climate scenarios from climate modeling. The new scenario the communities nevertheless continue to scale used by these models has gradually become more pay close and regular attention to the climate, observing precise and projections therefore more reliable. changes and new developments. Given that their liveli- hoods depend on the climate, the communities were in In terms of temperatures, almost all the models10 reveal an excellent position to provide accurate descriptions of that Bolivia will be hotter in the coming years, with the changes observed over many years. average temperatures rising by between 0.8 and 3.90C over the next 100 years (the IS92a scenario). c hA n gE t R En d s i n RE cE n t y E A Rs In terms of rainfall, however, the scenarios are highly varied and at times contradictory. Some scenarios One of the main conclusions of the study is that in all predict an increase in rainfall while others suggest less the communities, regardless of the ecosystems in which rainfall. Nevertheless, all the scenarios appear to concur they survive, it would appear that the climate is chang- on one point: that the rainy season will be shorter and ing. Communities, accustomed to living with climate more intense. variability, are now more concerned with the change trends in the climate. The change trends were precisely viEW s of thE commUniti E s identified by our interlocutors and thus it was possible, Heirs to a rich tradition, Bolivia's communities handle 10 In this paragraph we refer to the study undertaken by the PNCC in climate indicator systems which enable them to inter- which a comparative analysis was done of the climatic models pret the changes in natural phenomena for identifying HADCM2, HKHI, GISSEQ, MAGICC y SCENGEN, employing three CO2 emission scenarios: IS92a, IS92e, IS92c. The results were changing trends and predicting climate variabil- applied in a vulnerability study of Bolivia´s main ecosystems. See ity. Given that this traditional practice is common to all PNCC, Escenarios climáticos 2007. d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 37 using the process of participatory analysis, to construct The rains always began in September or October, climate scenarios for each community. whereas nowadays they begin in December or sometimes January. They used to end in May but increasing temperatures now they stop earlier, in March. (El Puente Community Workshop, Valleys) The majority of the communities considered that over the past 20­30 years temperatures had risen. They observed Previously the rains began earlier, in the month of that the sun burns hotter and longer, that river water is October, but they now start in November. It used warmer, that the earth is drier, and that wild fruit ripens to rain until April but now the rains stop in mid- quicker than before. Furthermore, they reported that March. (Yapacani Community Workshop, animals, insects, plants, and crops more typical of warmer Plains) climes had begun to appear. The communities in the valleys and plains observed that the winters were less cold. The indicators identified by communities, in addition to a shorter and heavier rainy season, showed lower levels Some comments are worth recording in this respect: of water in the rivers and catchment basins. Some of these were reported to have dried up altogether. A trend · Now it is very hot and the sun burns down on us, par- had also been towards less natural vegetation, falling ticularly in the daytime in winter and crop yields, and early budding of trees. spring. (Chaquilla Community Workshop, Altiplano). Only the municipalities of the Amazon (San Ignacio · By day the burning heat causes skin cancer and head- and San Pedro Moxos) reported the rainy season begin- aches. (Pucarani Community Workshop, Altiplano). ning earlier and ending later, together with heavier rain- · The sun is stronger, the soil is drier, new plant diseases are fall and flooding. occurring. (La Silla Community Workshop, Valleys). · The heat brings more flies and mosquitoes in January In all the communities there was general agreement that and February. (Chapicollo Community rains were more torrential, with more water falling over Workshop, Valleys). shorter periods and causing erosion and flooding. On the other hand, the Altiplano communities reported other climate changes increased frequency and intensity of frost (attributed to drier air). An increase of more frequent and intensive hailstorms was often mentioned in the course of our workshops. It less Water was also stated that winds were stronger over recent years, attributed by the communities to a rise in defor- Twelve of the 14 municipalities reported a trend toward estation and regarded by many as the cause of less rain- decreased rainfall, and in most cases a shorter rainy fall, in the belief that higher winds were responsible for season, with heavier precipitation than previously. dissipating rain-bearing clouds. The rains which used to begin in the first half of f UtU R E c l i mAt E s cEn A Ri o s December now come in January [...] They always used to end in the first half of April but now they From their observation of trends over the past 20­30 end in March. (Contorno Calacoto Community years, the communities identified future climate Workshop, Altiplano) scenarios. [The rains] used to start in September but they major changes now start in December and end in February, not in March, as previously. (Charagua Community The most-cited trend was the increased frequency of Workshop, Chaco) drought. Twelve out of the 14 communities studied 38 t hE sociA l d imE nsions of Ad AptAtion to c limAtE ch A ng E in B o l i v iA referred to this. One community in the Amazon opined that the future would bring heavier rainfall, concen- figURE 19. climAtE scEnARios trated into shorter times and interspersed with periods idEntifiEd By commUnitiEs of drought. Rainfall scenarios 100% The future climate scenarios advanced by the communi- 90% ties predicted that drought would be the main problem 80% (more heat and less water). Moreover the communities 70% 60% were particularly concerned that the future decline of 50% water availability would go hand in hand with poorer 40% 30% distribution of this resource. The "Indian Summer"' 20% short dry spells during the rainy seasons (veranillos) 10% 0% were forecast to be longer and more frequent, with the Highlands Dry lowland Valleys Plains rains starting later and ending earlier, with more storms Changes in rainfall cycle Increased rainfall intensity Rainfall scarcity and torrential downpours. This perception by community dwellers coincides with climate scenarios developed from Global Climate Models (GCMs), which predict a future with more heat other climate changes and more pressure on water resources. Annual rainfall in absolute terms is unlikely to diminish but will be Virtually all the communities in our study considered concentrated in shorter periods of heavy rainfall. that wind frequency, duration, and intensity would increase, causing severe damage mainly in the Chaco Figure 19 shows that 100 percent of the communities of and Plains, especially in areas where the windy period the Altiplano, Valleys and the Chaco believe there will be coincides with harvest time. a shortage of rain, while in the Plains 30 percent of the communities reckoned lack of rain would be a problem. While the Altiplano communities believe that periods of frosty weather are likely to increase in frequency and The reduced and increasingly intense rainy season is the intensity, communities in the Chaco, the Plains and the main change identified by all the communities in Valleys regions predict decreased frost. Bolivia´s four macro-regions, particularly by communi- ties located in the Plains region. Meanwhile, the According to three of the four communities interviewed communities in the Amazon part of the country predict in the Valleys region, hailstorms are likely to be more heavier rainfall accompanied by increased flooding. frequent, and fears were raised about possible calami- tous crop losses as a result. 39 7. thE impActs of climAtE tABlE 20. EffEcts And impActs of chAngE dRoUght Effect or impact Communities The study called for communities to reflect on the Effects decrease or loss of production 100% possible impacts of climate change on their livelihoods loss of genetic material 86% id the prioritized scenarios become reality. We regarded this as a necessary methodological requirement, involv- less food eaten 100% ing a hypothetical and general rather than quantified less water drunk 54% approach, in order to gain an idea of how adaptation less hygiene 46% measures could be envisaged and formulated. The impacts lower incomes 100% following sections are not therefore an examination of children's education affected 62% the impacts of climate change (which falls into a differ- more family illnesses 100% ent category and which we believe would be very inter- Source: Community Workshops esting to undertake), but rather reflect the outcomes of discussions with the campesinos about the ways they themselves saw future scenarios. Analyzing the results is an interesting exercise because it helps toward a better understanding of the adaptation measures prioritized by of the harvest, while "normal" periods of drought gener- the campesinos. ally lead to decreased yields. Ten of the 14 communities reported experiencing severe drought over the past 30 thE EffE cts A nd impActs o f years. dRo Ught This can be confirmed by the Agronomy Component According to the campesinos, water shortages have Study which stated that drought years (the dry scenario) multiple effects on communities. The results of our would cause significant decreases in the yields of all the discussions in the 14 communities are presented in the crops studied (see Table 21): following table: Citing a study by the Pan American Health decrease or loss of crops Organization (PAHO), the PNCC estimates that the 1983 drought led to a loss in Bolivia´s productive sector All the communities were aware of the immediate of around US$1,174 million dollars, equivalent to over effects of drought: the loss or decline of crop and live- 15 percent of total GDP and 50 percent of agricultural stock production. Prolonged drought involves total loss GDP. 40 t hE sociA l d imE nsions of Ad AptAtion to c limAtE ch A ng E in B o l i v iA Thus, one of the major consequences of drought is the tABlE 21. EffEcts of climAtE loss of genetic material, with many <> species chAngE on yiElds (dRy scEnARio) and varieties disappearing from vast regions of the country and in many cases in danger of extinction. crop potatoes decreased production famine corn decreased production Quinoa decreased production The communities also revealed that drought had an immediate and direct effect on the amount and quality Source: Agronomy Component Study of food available for human consumption. The commu- nity workshops without exception all referred to drought as being synonymous with famine, although this did not affect everyone uniformly. However, falling loss of seeds harvests as the result of drought tended to affect most families, causing hunger, while a small proportion of According to our surveys, given the small size of the families (the `less poor'), managed to escape the worst crops managed by smallholder campesinos, the losses effects. Drought for the latter involved using up the caused by drought forced families to consume their money or food they had managed to put aside for this entire harvested crop, including the portion normally eventuality. reserved for seeding in the following season. As indicated in Tables 22 and 23 above, yield reduction In the Qhawasiri Community (Valleys), for example, affects everyone, but particularly the "poor" and "aver- the 1983 drought was so severe that virtually all the age" campesinos, whose production fails to supply them seed potatoes were lost and the menfolk were forced to with enough to eat or store. The "average" campesino seek jobs in the cities to obtain the money needed for family cultivating three acres per year will see their agri- purchasing new seeds. In the aftermath of the drought cultural income drop due to drought from US$4,725 to demand for seeds was such that prices increased signifi- US$3,465, which is insufficient to cover their consump- cantly. The generalized shortage of potato seeds led to tion expenditure of US$ 3,918 and resulting in a net new foreign varieties being imported which caused the loss of around US$450, meaning the family would need spread of previously unknown diseases, blight and para- to supplement its income with other income-producing sites such as the white grub locally known as lagartu. activities in order to maintain its tABlE 22. fAmily incomE in noRmAl yEARs (pAmpAjAsi commUnity) Units "Poor" Campesinos "Average" Campesinos "Rich" Campesinos Average yield (*) Us$/ha 1,400 2,100 2,800 input unit Us$/ha 350 525 700 Added value Unit Us$/ha 1,050 1,575 2,100 cultivated area ha 2 3 4 total value added Us$ 2,100 4,725 8,400 household consumption (**) Us$ 3,134 3,918 4,701 saving Us$ ­1,034 807 3,699 Source: Data from Enquiry Form 4. (*) Average yield of major crops (potato, barley) in normal years. (**) Extrapolated from UNDP data (2001 HDI), Pucarani Municipality. d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 41 tABlE 23. fAmily incomE And dRoUght-REdUcEd yiElds of 20 pERcEnt (pAmpAjAsi commUnity) Units "Poor" Campesinos "Average" Campesinos "Rich" Campesinos potato equivalent yield Us$/ha 1,120 1,680 2,240 input unit Us$/ha 350 525 700 value added Us$/ha 770 1,155 1,540 cultivated area it 2 3 4 total value added Us$ 1,540 3,465 6,160 household consumption (**) Us$ 3,134 3,918 4,701 saving Us$ ­1,594 ­453 1,459 Source: Data from Enquiry Form 4. (*) Average yield of major crops (potato, barley) in dry year. (**) Extrapolated from UNDP data (2001 HDI), Pucarani Municipality. level of consumption. But, as explained by the families The sale of animals such as goats and sheep falls interviewed, during a drought many people migrate in off. (Caña Cruz Community Workshop, El search of work, and wages tend to fall in view of the Puente, Valleys) competition for jobs, As a result, the migrants fail to achieve sufficient cash to offset the family´s losses. Such Significant decreases in homemade clothing items families have no other choice but to reduce food made from our camelid wool. ( Jila Uta Manasaya consumption.11 Community Workshop, Carangas Curawara, Altiplano) In the drought we have less food all round: fewer beans, less corn, less kumanda. We simply have to disease make do by drinking less milk and eating less meat (San Francisco Community Workshop, Chaco.) In all the communities surveyed drought was reported to be the cause of disease (mainly a variety of infections In times of drought production tails off and we and diarrhea) resulting from undernourishment and have less to eat. We have to buy food from the city from drinking stagnant and polluted water. which is less nutritious. You simply eat less meat and cheese. (El Puente Community Workshop, Drought affects the health and welfare of all of us. Valleys). People here are eating less and badly. (Chaquilla Community Workshop, Porco Municipality) decreased income 62 percent reported that drought had a negative effect All of the communities indicated to our researchers that on children's education for two reasons: malnourished drought causes a drop in incomes owing to reduced or children were unable to learn properly and children lost agricultural and livestock production. Some ceased going to school in order to assist their parents to communities also reported that even handicrafts deal with problems caused by drought. production was affected by the drought. There are no surplus agricultural products to sell. 11 A study undertaken in the valleys during the 1998 drought reveals that (Chapicollo Community Workshop, it is the poorest families who are forced to reduce their levels of consumption--cutting down on the number of daily meals. Morales et Vitichi, Valleys) al. 2001: Estrategias campesinas para enfrentar la sequia. Page 92. PIEB. 42 t hE sociA l d imE nsions of Ad AptAtion to c limAtE ch A ng E in B o l i v iA Children cannot learn on a virtually empty stom- animals and, for the campesinos, the destruction of ach. (Chapicollo Community Workshop, productive capital. After periods of drought, campesinos Vitichi Municipality, Valleys). who had who lost their herds were generally forced to look elsewhere for work. sEctoRs WoRst Aff EctEd B y dRo U ght Many people who lost their cattle had to go and live somewhere else. Some went to Chile, others The families in the lowest socioeconomic strata are the most went to work in the mines. It is difficult to get a affected by drought. They are more susceptible to the effects herd together again. Where would we find the of drought since: (i) they farm only rainfed land; (ii) their money? (Gregorio Alvarado, Uta Manasaya Jila land is more drought-susceptible, being short of organic Community, Altiplano) matter and with low moisture retention; and (iii) they are short of resources for coping with drought, possess only E f fE c t s A n d i m pA c t s o f small plots for growing a limited amount of crops and have flooding no reserves to get them through the bad years. Two communities in the sample discussed the effects Our interviews revealed that the worst affects of drought and impacts of floods. Both communities argued that are suffered by families who depend on the rainfed culti- flooding leads to: vation of potatoes. The campesinos knew that the potato is a crop requiring plenty of water and that water short- · A drop in eating and living standards due to the ages were bound to have a more negative effect on it than loss of crop and livestock production, the difficulty on other crops. The loss of a potato crop is expensive, not of obtaining forest products, and from drinking bad only because the price fetched by the sale of potatoes is water. normally relatively high (and the losses correspondingly greater), but also because inputs (especially seed) cost Floods strongly affect food security because of significantly more than for other crops. Families who had crop losses. On the other hand we are forced to lost their seed potatoes during a drought reckoned that it drink contaminated water. (Valparaiso took two to three years to recover them. Community Workshop, San Pedro, Plains) My potato crop is not what it was before the drought · Significant flood damage to homes caused by three years ago. I still do not have enough seed pota- humidity and sludge; toes to go round. But I am slowly recovering, work- · Absenteeism at school because children are unable ing in partnership with others who do have seeds. to attend school at peak flood times. ( Julio Padilla, Kanalla Community, Valleys). During the flood families temporarily move to Other livelihoods that are seriously affected by drought other places. Classes are cancelled until the flood are those based on extensive livestock farming. Drought subsides, the rains end and the mud dries up causes a decrease of native vegetation, particularly grass- (Valparaiso Community Workshop, land fodder, due mainly to grass being slow to re-sprout San Pedro Municipality) after the winter and also to the fact that in the veranillos (dry spells during the rainy season) the grass grows · Spread of diseases such as malaria, diarrhea, much slower. It follows that animals have less grass to malaria, fever and "evil eye" (conjunctivitis). graze on. Drought also causes springs and river catch- ment areas to dry up, thereby forcing cattle to cover fA m i l iE s h A Rd E s t h i t By long distances in search of water. flooding Severe droughts cause not only the decline of livestock In the communities studied it was reported that flood- productivity but also the deaths of large numbers of ing affected everyone's houses and plots of land. Those d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 43 tEstimony of AidéE gimEnEZ, pREsidEnt of thE indiAn sUBcEntRAl cERcAdo, BEni Climate change for us is very serious since it brings more flooding. Over the last ten years we have had three major floods which have flooded communities and places that were never flooded before. My whole community is now under water - in some places it is up to a meter deep. Previously the floods were short but after five or six days things got back to normal. But now the water is with us for four months. The water dries up after the flood leaving a layer of white clay on the ground. This prevents us from growing anything in the soil. Some say that this clay can be an advantage, but you have to know how to deal with it. Flooding seriously affects our plantation. We planted chocolate trees but after a couple of years the water came and ruined them. The trunks and roots have all been eaten by insects. The same happened with our banana plantations. It looks like the insects have nowhere to live except in the roots of our trees and plants. The bigger floods also kill off our fish. Flash floods bring everything to the ground: tree leaves and branches, and after a few days all the vegetation starts rotting and smelly water gets everywhere. I reckon that that is what kills off the fish. with motor boats coped better since they were able to people's livelihood strategies, either gradually over time transfer their families and animals to other communities or more rapidly from one year to the next. or move to higher ground. Families without boats, including the poorest members of the community, had One example of gradual climate warming was in the to rely on assistance from neighbors. communities growing potatoes as their main source of subsistence, where climate change was gradually I have a small boat and when the floods hit the producing changes in the potato varieties. The tradi- community I was able move my family and pigs to tional Andean species, usually grown in a long cycle, Agua Dulce [a neighboring community that was were being slowly replaced by Dutch potato varieties not flooded], because around here there was a lot of (short-growth cycle mainly for use as French mud and water. (Interview with the family of fries). This change was observed in interviews with all Vicente Moreno, Valparaiso Community, potato growing families, both the Valleys Region and in Plains Region) the Altiplano. Communities reported that the acreage under Dutch varieties was increasing year by year at the In the flood we had to make a high `chachapa' (a expense of the local traditional potato species. high wooden pen) next to the guava tree to protect our animals [...] many of them drowned. A further example, reported by all the communities in (Interview with Sanginez Marina, Valparaíso the Altiplano and Valleys Regions, is that livestock Community, Plains Region) systems are altering as the result of reduced pasture availability. This was reported by all the communities in Eff Ects A nd impActs of the Altiplano and Valleys regions. According to the WAR ming campesinos, pastures were requiring more water as the climate heated up and sprouting was delayed after the Our study was also able to identify the effects in some end of winter. The upshot was that animals were unable communities of gradual climate warming. We found to find the same amount of grass to eat and had taken that warming had a number of negative effects on to chewing grass roots, which obviously had negative communities in the cold and temperate regions but was effects on pasture recovery times. Due to lack of avail- not a serious concern in the warmer areas. Of note was able food, the number of animals kept per family had the fact that the gradual increase in temperatures over begun to decline, causing food shortages in families and recent years had brought about major changes in a manure deficit for fertilizing crops. 44 t hE sociA l d imE nsions of Ad AptAtion to c limAtE ch A ng E in B o l i v iA ABAndoning thE lAnd in thE ovEjERíA commUnity What was the effect of climate warming?: The community of Ovejería (rainfed hillside grain cultivation), was practically abandoned. Almost everyone moved away, leaving only a few old people. The main reason is that over recent years wheat and barley production fell so much that families could not feed themselves properly. The climate is very dry in this community. Where were these people?: Most of the younger people left for the city, while others went to work as laborers in Rio Chico where crops are grown under irrigation. how do the remaining members of the old community live?: In the community of Ovejería there are only a few goats left, being looked after by elderly people. Many years ago, when there was more grass in this community we raised sheep. Around 20 years ago we began to lose the sheep and started raising goats instead. (interview with marcial vargas, agronomist) In the Valleys goats were reported to have begun to replace higher temperatures and water shortages average yields sheep, which require more and better quality forage. were reported to have fallen. The decline in production was so great that some families decided to give up and When I was young we had lots of animals at leave their land. In the Pueblo Abajo community (Sicaya, home--around 200 sheep and goats. Now have Valleys region), for example, three of the five families only 40. The problem is that animals have been interviewed were originally from other hillside communi- dying from external parasites and ties and had been forced to leave because the climate was disease. Previously we also had these problems but so dry that they were unable to harvest enough to live on. the animals were stronger and more resistant in those days, as well as bigger and s E n s i t i v i t y o f l i vE l i h o o d fatter. (Leonardo Ibarra, La Sillada) s tR At Eg i E s to c l i mAt E c hA n g E An example of abrupt change due to warming concerns The responses in our community workshops enabled us crops (grains) grown on the valley slopes. As the result of to draw up a list of livelihood strategies based on the tABlE 24. sEnsitivity of livElihood stRAtEgiEs to dRoUght Sensitivity Livelihood strategy Effect of drought high Rainfed agriculture Water stress causing yield reduction livestock farming loss of vegetation, shrinking water supplies, causing food shortages, loss of productivity, death of livestock. Average Agricultural employment Reduced job opportunities irrigated agriculture Reduced irrigation flow, reduced yields intensive livestock higher cost of fodder, water shortages Agriculture-related services and decrease in incomes due to reduced agricultural production commerce forestry Reduced density of exploitable species low Agricultural employment fewer jobs services and non-agricultural trade less activity due to reduced incomes of customers. d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 45 tABlE 25. sEnsitivity of livElihood stRAtEgiEs to flooding Sensitivity Livelihood strategy Effect of flooding high Rainfed and irrigated agriculture floods cause loss of the harvest and depending on their intensity, loss of soil cover. intensive and extensive livestock loss or deterioration of infrastructure raising loss of livestock and decreased productivity forestry displacement, reduced density of exploitable species. Average services and agriculture-related trade demand reduction low Agricultural and non-farm employment fewer jobs services and non-agricultural trades demand reduction Source: Community Workshop Enquiry Form 03.06 respondents´ level of sensitivity to the twin problems of activities with others such as non-agricultural jobs, drought and flooding, which according to the commu- trades, and service supply will probably be less affected. nities, are the most likely manifestations of climate change in the future. The strategies less vulnerable to climate change tend to be those that are not based on agriculture. For families In summary, in the opinion of the campesinos, all liveli- with non-agriculture strategies (wage earners, traders, and hoods will be affected to one degree or another by those with jobs in the transport sector) their activities will climate change--some of them less affected, some more. marginally affected, but any shortfalls can probably be Livelihood strategies that are most likely to suffer are easily met in other ways. In the case of wage-earning those that are directly dependent on climatic conditions employees, their salaries are unlikely to be affected, but such as rainfed agriculture, rainfed livestock raising, and their purchasing power could well be reduced on account forestry. Strategies which combine these farming of generalized price increases caused by drought. 46 8. AdAptAtion to climAtE with scarce resources and who often were either unable to work or prevented from migrating or seeking a new chAngE economic activity. These people were apt to endure the hardship resulting from adverse weather events thanks to lEssons fRom thE pA st help received from neighbors and other family members. The following statements are examples of how extreme The following paragraphs are an account of the events affect the poorest families in the communities. responses given in family interviews regarding climate change. These serve as a basis for formulating practical The case of Juana´s family (37 years old): My main occu- and concrete adaptation measures. pation is supplying milk. I have a number of cows and also go from house to house collecting milk for selling to the dairy. Responses to extreme weather events During the drought milk production fell by half because of the lack of forage. We had to manage on a reduced income. The study focused on the responses of the 70 families I have no husband, my children are too small to work and interviewed to past climatic events. Families were ques- I was not in a position to leave my home. ( Juana Mamani, tioned, for example, on what action they took in the Jasi Pampa Community, Pucarani Municipality, event of drought, hailstorms, frost, or flooding. Altiplano) Fifty percent of the families surveyed claimed that in The case of Evaristo´s family (68 years old): We live off such circumstances they maintained their same life rice, maize and cassava production (3 hectares), and the patterns but tended to cut down consumption and draw vegetables grown by my wife. We could do nothing when the on their reserves. Among these families were (i) those drought came and simply waited for the next year in order not significantly affected by the climate event and to start again. Luckily we survived on vegetables which we (ii) those who were unable to react to the event. The were able to irrigate with the little water available to us. former were generally the "richest" families, possessing (Evaristo Flores, San Isidro Community, Yapacaní plenty of good irrigated land and a level of agricultural Municipality) production which would help them to survive. They were also invariably the families who had access, apart The other 50 percent of respondents claimed that they from farming, to other activities that were not totally took some form of action in the face of adverse climatic dependent on climate change, such as outside jobs, events. The responses were varied: Some claimed to trade, and processing value-added items for sale. have adopted new economic activities as part of their livelihood strategies, some decided to migrate to other The second category were generally the poorest in the areas, while others devoted themselves to improving community, comprising elderly people, single women, etc., their traditional farming methods. d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 47 Regarding the approximately 17 percent of the remain- figURE 20. REsponsEs to climAtE der who developed new activities such as making handi- hAZARds crafts, getting a local paid job, setting up a small business, or who migrated temporarily, the result was Traditional management that over half the community was forced to find some practices 25% form of new activity in order to offset further losses caused by climate hazard. Temporary migration 36% Water The other 50 percent of the families made an effort to management incorporate improvements in their traditional occupa- 10% Other tions by installing irrigation, developing more produc- 3% tive farming techniques, improving infrastructure, or Agricultural commercialization Agricultural simply by selling their animals or using up their savings. and employment improvements 17% 9% Simon´s case (58 years): We raise llamas and sheep and also grow a few crops on our small plots. During the last drought I had to leave home in order to seek work in the mining town of Porco while I left my wife and my children to care for Of the 36 per cent of families who resorted to tempo- the animals. We also had to sell some of the rary migration, these were generally families who in animals to have enough money to buy food. Our normal circumstances would not migrate but who were children who live in the city also helped us out a obliged to do so in order to offset losses12. In emergen- bi, by sending money home. (Simón Choque, cies such as prolonged drought, temporary migration Chaquilla Community, Porco Municipality) generally involved people heading for the cities rather than to the traditional farming areas, which were also Meanwhile, around 25 percent of all the families and the likely to be affected by drought. community resorted to traditional rituals in cases of emergency such as praying for rain, building fires against Most respondents viewed migration as their preferred frost, sending up fireworks against hailstorms, etc. temporary measure for the following reasons: Autonomous changes in production systems · fewer mouths to feed in the community; · the possibility of earning sufficient cash to cover The climatic changes occurring in communities--iden- urgent needs; tified primarily as higher temperatures, lower rainfall · opportunities to secure enough to avoid selling ani- and recurring floods--are not a recent phenomenon but mals or divesting other capital assets for the dura- have come about gradually over several years, accompa- tion of the emergency. nied by gradual and spontaneous (unplanned) adapta- tion to production systems. These autonomous changes The case of the Victor´s family (35 years): were identified and analyzed in the community work- We grow mainly bananas, rice, maize, and shops and provided the basis for the formulation of cassava. Our main problem during last year's flood adaptation measures. The main trends were the was to find a place to shelter. We had to get rid of following: animals and find some other way of earning a living in the neighboring city of Riberalta. My · installing irrigation whole family went. For three or four months I · changing varieties and species of crops worked as a building laborer. It was not like that in the old days. (Victor Yanam, Valparaiso Community, San Pedro Municipality) 12 Morales et al. Estrategias campesinas para enfrentar la sequía, page 98 48 t hE sociA l d imE nsions of Ad AptAtion to c limAtE ch A ng E in B o l i v iA · changing to different breeds of animals scenarios. Each of the measures identified was · changing animal husbandry systems discussed in community workshops and focus groups · converting pasture into crop land and subsequently subjected to a prioritization process. · abandoning land · undertaking a variety of different economic activi- The process of analysis and discussion in each commu- ties ("pluriactivity") nity was undertaken with the support of technical staff · protecting infrastructure trained to encourage forthright discussion without · relocating homes. asking leading questions (i.e., inducing obvious responses from interviewees). Table 26 provides a detailed description of the main changes identified in the communities. classification of Adaptation measures It is worth noting that these changes occurred with no A total of 134 adaptation measures was identified in the support from the state or other institutions, and came communities, with an average of nine measures per about at the initiative (and cost) of the families them- community. As will be seen below, these are highly selves in an empirical manner without previous plan- concrete measures in line with the real situation of each ning. In common with any innovation in all rural community and genuinely reflect a particular communi- communities, this process took place over a number of ty's real needs, the number of beneficiaries, local cultural years, based on the "trial and error method," where new criteria, previous experiences, etc. ideas are incorporated and consolidated only after they have been proven to produce good results. Municipal With a view to identifying trends, these diverse and governments and institutions, at the request of complex measures were divided into eight categories: communities, have been persuaded to use some of these ideas to execute irrigation and infrastructure · Water management protection projects (implemented in five of the · Infrastructure communities studied). · Livestock improvement · Agriculture improvement At the participatory design stage of climate change · Environmental management adaptation measures, communities were fully aware of · Advice and training the above trends and initiatives but were also prepared · Credit and financing to incorporate other measures based on information · Value added activities (processing) and employment acquired as a result of the experiences of neighboring communities. Water management measures Ad AptAtion mEA sUREs Water management measures basically consist of install- ing water storage infrastructure to facilitate water As explained in Chapter 1 (Scope and Methodology supply for human use. Three subcategories were of the study) we used Participatory Analysis for identified: designing adaptation measures for the prioritized climate scenarios. The communities began by 1. Use of existing water resources: Building infrastruc- constructing future climate scenarios based on the ture (dams, etc.) to harness available water sources analysis of change trends observed over the previous such as rivers, water catchment areas, and under- 20­30 years and on projections from general circula- ground aquifers. tion models. An analysis was then done of the possible 2. Rainwater harvesting: building infrastructure to effects and impacts of climate change on family liveli- capture and store rainwater, involving the con- hood systems. Using their past experience, the struction of artificial reservoirs and atajados (small communities were then able to identify possible dams) and providing facilities for harvesting roof measures for adapting to different climate water. tABlE 26. spontAnEoUs chAngEs in REsponsE to climAtE chAngE Measure Description Stratum Livelihood strategy Macroregion Installation of irrigation construction of systems to exploit available water "Rich" campesinos with strategies based on Altiplano, valleys, plains sources. small-scale systems owing to the costs of the works capital rainfed agriculture involved and the limited availability of water sources. Changes of species and introduction of new shorter-cycle varieties and species All strata strategies based on Altiplano, valleys varieties of crops resistant to drought, to allow later planting before the late rainfed agriculture rains and to earlier harvesting at the end of the shorter rainy season Changes in animal species introduction of breeds and species requiring less or lower "Average" and "poor" strategies based on valleys (goats) and breeds quality fodder and which are more drought tolerant, such as campesinos extensive livestock Altiplano (llamas) goats and llamas, to replace sheep and alpacas raising Changes in farming systems in view of the gradual deterioration of grazing pastures a "Rich" campesinos with strategies based on All macro-regions with trend exists towards switching from extensive livestock capital rainfed agriculture communities near to cities raising to semi-stabled systems using cultivated forage and and extensive concentrated feeds (mainly for dairy and fatstock cattle). livestock raising Grazing areas are converted the `bofedales' (permanently damp areas with grass cover in All strata strategies based on Altiplano, in communities that into cropland Altiplano communities), previously exclusively used for extensive livestock have humid `bofedales' grazing, are converted into crop land due to the lower raising incidence of frost, dried up water sources and grass cover degradation. Land abandonment Abandonment of lands prone to drought, with little organic All strata, but mainly the strategies based on All macro-regions, mainly in the matter or which retain limited amounts of moisture; usually "poor" campesinos working rainfed agriculture semi-tropical valleys located on steep slopes and hills. land that is more vulnerable to drought d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s `Pluriactivity' incorporation of new activities in campesino livelihood "Average" and "poor" strategies based on All macro-regions strategies, in addition to the main activities. these include campesinos rainfed agriculture or temporary migration, trades (bricklayer, blacksmith etc), and livestock raising services provision (setting up a shop, selling food etc) Infrastructure protection construction of flood control defenses against flooding and "Rich" campesinos with All flood-prone communities flash floods along the rivers. capital resources Housing relocation Relocating homes in places less exposed to flooding "Rich" campesinos with All plains capital resources Source: Community workshops, family interviews 49 50 t hE sociA l d imE nsions of Ad AptAtion to c limAtE ch A ng E in B o l i v iA tABlE 27. ExAmplEs of mEAsUREs foR BEst UsE of Existing WAtER REsoURcEs Macro-region Municipality Community Measure chaco charagua san francisco micro-irrigation system construction and making use of river water Altiplano carangas curahuara Uta jila manasaya drilling wells and installing hand pumps for drinking water valleys saipina oconi construction of a storage dam on the river oconi valleys vitichi chapicollo Underground storage tank1 1. This measure is in reality a very ancient traditional practice which consists of burying in the bed of the quebradas (small rivers which run only when it rains) a large tank for storing water. This resembles a swimming pool with a lid on it and is buried a few meters deep under the sand. The device has porous walls through which the water is captured and a small aperture at the top where water can be extracted with the use of buckets. The people in the communities recount that their ancestors always used this method but that the younger generation are not familiar with it. tABlE 28. ExAmplEs of RAinWAtER hARvEsting Macro-region Municipality Community Measure Altiplano carangas curahuara Uta jila manasaya construction of atajados for the irrigation of bofedales valleys tarvita la silla construction of 50 earth atajados with capacity of 4000c.m. 3. Improvement and expansion of existing water systems: flooding, and ensuring that schools and homes are built infrastructure and equipment to expand water cap- in areas free from flooding. ture capacity and distribution systems with a view to avoiding future shortages. Improvement initia- measures to improve livestock tives include training and the provision of facilities and equipment to make more efficient use of water These measures involve helping small farmers to such as pumping systems, improved piping layouts, introduce livestock that is more suitable to the impacts and other efforts to prevent irrigation water losses. of climate change. Two subcategories can be identified: infrastructure measures 1. Changes to the livestock raising system: infrastructure, Infrastructure measures include building infrastructure training and equipment; introduction of new species and providing defenses to protect against erosion or and breeds better adapted to drought; and tABlE 29. ExAmplEs of impRovEmEnt oR ExpAnsion of Existing systEms Macro-region Municipality Community Measure chaco charagua san francisco Upgrading and expansion of drinking water system chaco villa vaca guzman Aguayrenda Repairs to tapping point, construction of holding tank and installation of pressurized irrigation plains yapacani August 15 Emergency repairs to drinking water system and education center d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 51 tABlE 30. ExAmplEs of infRAstRUctURE UpgRAding AdAptAtion mEAsUREs Macro-region Municipality Community Prioritized action plains yapacani san isidro construction of condorito Bridge plains yapacani san isidro construction of social housing plains yapacani August 15 Reconstruction of 5 km of the 15 de Agosto community´s main road plains yapacani August 15 construction of flood defenses along the River yapacaní tABlE 31. ExAmplEs of mEAsUREs to impRovE livEstocK RAising systEms Macro-region Municipality Community Prioritized measure Altiplano pucarani pampajasi construction of dairy cattle infrastructure Altiplano pucarani pampajasi Upgrading dairy herds Altiplano porco chaquilla construction of roofed folds and other infrastructure (forage racks, troughs, etc.). Altiplano porco chaquilla comprehensive animal health program (de-worming of internal and external parasites, etc). Altiplano porco chaquilla improving reproductive and genetic management (managed cross-breeding, selection and rotation of stud animals, avoiding use of underperforming animals). chaco villa vaca Aguayrenda management and recovery of native forest-deferred forage guzman valleys El puente caña cruz improving livestock infrastructure and introduction of goats for 25 families. tABlE 32. ExAmplEs of pAstURE mAnAgEmEnt mEAsUREs Macro-region Municipality Community Prioritized measure Altiplano calacoto contorno improvement of pastures and fodder calacoto Altiplano porco chaquilla Recovery practices in degraded wetlands (fencing, fertilization, irrigation and repopulation) Altiplano carangas Uta jila improvement of native grasslands by constructing infiltration trenches (to aid runoff) curahuara manasaya and planting seeds of native grasses chaco villa vaca Aguayrenda management and recovery of native forest-deferred forage guzman construction of pens, stables and apriscos (cattle including the establishment of regulatory frame- folds) as a prelude to shifting to semi-intensive works limiting access to grassland. farming. 2. Grazing pasture management: infrastructure and measures to improve Agriculture training aimed at the improvement, protection and management of grazing pastures; and preventing Measures to adapt agriculture to climate change can be falls in load capacity due to climate change, divided into two subcategories: 52 t hE sociA l d imE nsions of Ad AptAtion to c limAtE ch A ng E in B o l i v iA tABlE 33. ExAmplEs of chAngEd mEAsUREs foR cRopping systEms Macro-region Municipality Community Prioritized measure Altiplano porco chaquilla organic farming, using selected native species and varieties tolerant to adverse weather conditions chaco charagua san crops of early soft corn varieties, pearl maize, and beans in 22 chaco family francisco farms chaco villa vaca guzman Aguayrenda protection of rice production chaco villa vaca guzman Aguayrenda improved soil cultivation, hoeing, and selecting earlier and more profitable peanut varieties plains san ignacio puerto san grain storage system (construction of silos) Borja plains san pedro valparaiso fast-growing vegetable crops introduced plains yapacani san isidro control of high weed incidence in pastures and fruit orchards plains yapacani san isidro introduction of citrus trees in conjunction with coffee plants plains yapacani Agosto 15 diversification: citrus and cocoa planted plains yapacani Agosto 15 Windbreaks installed in rice paddies valleys El puente caña cruz construction of 50 family greenhouses. valleys El puente caña cruz improved management of local varieties and introduction of new varieties of fruit trees (peaches) in 50 domestic orchards. 1. Changing cropping systems: infrastructure, equipment regulation of access; and reforestation and revegetation and training for introducing new species and to reduce water infiltration, erosion, flooding, and the adapted varieties; building storage facilities to ensure drying up of water sources. conservation of crops under warmer conditions. 2. Farmland management: infrastructure, equipment training and Advisory measures and training to ensure better soil management by seeking to improve water-holding capacity (in the Two subcategories of training and advisory measures event of drought); and installing drainage systems exist to help people living in the communities better and controlling erosion (in the event of flooding). adapt to climate change: Environmental management measures 1. Manpower training: to boost employment opportu- nities in the event of temporary or permanent Measures aimed at improving the management of migration. forests and water catchment areas, together with tABlE 34. ExAmplEs of AgRicUltURAl soil mAnAgEmEnt mEAsUREs Macro-region Municipality Community Prioritized measure Altiplano porco chaquilla opening up and / or construction of drainage ditches to prevent crops being affected by permanent moisture. chaco charagua san francisco Animal traction to aid arable land soil management chaco villa vaca Aguayrenda improved soil cultivation, hoeing and selecting earlier and more profitable peanut guzman varieties. plains san ignacio puerto san Agricultural terracing (lomas) to prevent flooding Borja valleys El puente caña cruz management and recovery of soil fertility (0.5 ha / household) d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 53 tABlE 35. ExAmplEs of EnviRonmEntAl impRovEmEnt AdAptAtion mEAsUREs Macro-region Municipality Community Prioritized measure chaco charagua san francisco forest management and recovery of native species valleys El puente caña cruz Reforestation and management training in woodland areas of 0.25 ha / household valleys saipina oconi Reforestation to protect drinking water sources tABlE 36. ExAmplEs of mAnpoWER tRAining mEAsUREs Macro-region Municipality Community Prioritized measure Altiplano calacoto contorno calacoto technical training in various activities valleys tarvita la silla training for community leaders and young people valleys saipina oconi training courses for 40 families tABlE 37. ExAmplEs of mEAsUREs foR tRAining in AltERnAtivE occUpAtions Macro-region Municipality Community Prioritized measure Altiplano calacoto contorno calacoto creation of producers´ Association Altiplano porco chaquilla training and user awareness for sustainable use of resources. plains yapacani san isidro diagnostic study on the timing of flowering of local plants valleys El puente caña cruz production chain counseling program valleys saipina oconi Exchange of experiences with other communities valleys sicaya pueblo Abajo tracking and monitoring climate change in community 2. Training for alternative occupations: training and measures to improve Employment and advice given on seeking and undertaking new value-added Activities income-generating occupations in the communities, support for organizational strengthening. These include constructing infrastructure and introduc- ing equipment and training with the aim of generating credit and financing measures new sources of income to complement that earned from farming activities, together with measures to support Measures of access to credit and financing aimed at organizational strengthening and associated marketing supporting family adaptation initiatives. methods. tABlE 38. ExAmplE of A cREdit And finAncing AdAptAtion mEAsURE Macro-region Municipality Community Prioritized measure Altiplano calacoto contorno calacoto management of low-interest loan financing 54 t hE sociA l d imE nsions of Ad AptAtion to c limAtE ch A ng E in B o l i v iA tABlE 39. ExAmplEs of mEAsUREs to impRovE EmploymEnt And vAlUE-AddEd ActivitiEs Macro-region Municipality Community Prioritized measures Altiplano calacoto contorno processing and marketing of local products calacoto Altiplano pucarani pampajasi support for the establishment of an organization to market aggregates (sand and stone) plains san pedro valparaiso community flat boat for transporting produce to market plains yapacani san isidro pilot center for improving apiculture techniques valleys El puente caña cruz joint marketing of vegetables and traditional products valleys El puente caña cruz production of lambswool fabrics by 10 families valleys vitichi chapicollo facilities installed for weaving and clothes manufacture valleys vitichi chapicollo Establishment of tannery fREQUEncy of Ad AptAtion Water management was given the highest priority in mEA sURE s community strategies (an average of 3.1 per commu- nity) followed by measures to improve agriculture and Our analysis of the number of times each type of livestock raising. measure was included in community adaptation strate- gies indicates a number of interesting trends. Communities in the Altiplano and inter-Andean valleys (i.e., in the Andes) prioritized water manage- The above table indicates that on average each commu- ment measures given that their main concern was nity included 8.9 adaptation measures in their liveli- drought. In the plains region and the Chaco, water hood strategies. The community with the largest management measures took second place to measures number of measures was Chapicollo (Vitichi for improving agriculture. Livestock improvement was Municipality) with 17 measures, while Jila Manasaya the main concern of the highland communities Uta (Curawara Carangas Municipality) suggested only surveyed. 5 measures (the lowest). tABlE 40. AvERAgE nUmBER of commUnity AdAptAtion mEAsUREs By mAcRo-REgion Measure Altiplano Chaco Plains Valleys Total Water management 3.0 3.0 1.8 4.2 3.1 infrastructure 0.3 0.0 1.0 0.2 0.4 livestock improvement 2.8 0.5 0.5 1.2 1.3 Agriculture improvement 1.5 4.0 2.3 2.8 2.5 Environmental management 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.4 0.2 training and advice 1.3 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.7 financing and credit 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 Employment and value-added activities 0.5 0.0 0.5 1.2 0.7 Total 9.5 8.0 6.3 11.0 8.9 tABlE 41. nUmBER of pRioRitiZEd mEAsUREs By typE And commUnity Type of measure Employment and value- Macro- Water Livestock Improvement Environmental Training and Financing and added Total region Community management Infrastructure Improvement of agriculture management advice credit activities measures Altiplano chaquilla 3 4 3 3 13 contorno 2 1 3 1 2 1 1 11 calacoto Uta jila 4 1 5 manasaya pampajasi 3 3 2 1 9 total 12 1 11 6 5 1 2 38 Altiplano chaco Aguayrenda 4 1 5 10 san francisco 2 3 1 6 total 6 1 8 1 16 chaco plains Agosto 15 1 2 3 6 puerto san 2 1 3 6 Borja san isidro 1 2 1 2 1 1 8 d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s valparaiso 3 1 1 5 total 7 4 2 9 1 2 25 plains valleys caña cruz 1 3 6 1 1 2 14 chapicollo 8 3 2 4 17 la silla 5 1 1 7 oconi 3 1 3 1 2 10 pueblo Abajo 4 2 1 7 total 21 1 6 14 2 5 6 55 valleys grand 46 6 20 37 3 11 1 10 134 Total 55 56 t hE sociA l d imE nsions of Ad AptAtion to c limAtE ch A ng E in B o l i v iA Ad AptAtion stRAtE gi Es (Valleys), which currently benefit from significant investments made by the local authorities and private Our results indicate that communities do not award institutions, prioritized investments requiring substantial priority to any single measure or to measures in isola- external support (see Table below). tion but combine different measures ("adaptation strate- gies") in order of priority, to be implemented within a general trends specific time limit. Analyzing this group of multifaceted strategies it is Strategies differ greatly. Communities located in the possible to identify general trends which are common to same macro-region with similar climate problems prior- all the strategies and which present lessons for design- itized different strategies. For example, while all the ing policies in support of climate adaptation. communities in the Valleys region forecast drought as their predominant climate scenario, the measures and A notable trend is that the prioritized measures related adaptation strategies to deal with drought vary. These to a particular strategy effectively complement one differences are apparent not only in the total number of another (i.e. they are not isolated, one-off, actions). measures recorded but also with regard to the type of Implementing a measure implies the need to undertake measures proposed and their order of priority. The a series of other measures that complement and ensure following chart displays all the adaptation measures that the desired end-results are achieved. identified by the communities in the order of priority which communities assigned to them. The case of the Contorno Calacoto community (Altiplano) The above tables indicate a wide variety of community livelihood strategies which can be explained as follows. This community, located on the central Bolivian high Firstly, each strategy tends to reflect the specific concerns plateau a few hours from the capital La Paz, is character- of an individual community, especially regarding the ized by its extreme poverty owing to very low agricultural extent to which it is exposed to, and aware of, climate production. Agricultural production has deteriorated change and its likely effects on the life of the community. significantly as a result of climate change, with water The measures that have been identified and the priorities scarcity one of the community's major problems. assigned to them also mirror the kind of measures or investments that have already been made (or not) in the Contorno Calacoto´s first priority is to introduce community in the past. In effect the strategies depend on measures related to water supply for human consump- the recent history of a particular community. tion and farming activities. Secondly, the community Communities, for example, that have succeeded in has assigned priority to improving livestock rearing resolving the problems of drinking water supply thanks through two measures: improving pasture and fodder-- to investments already made considered that there was the main limiting factors owing to deterioration of the no need to include this measure in their livelihood strat- grasslands over the past few years. egy unless the current system was considered inadequate. The community also hopes to develop semi-stabled A further factor distinguishing the different adaptation livestock rearing and therefore requires stables and strategies in the communities is the presence of institu- covered pens to be built. This implies completely trans- tions, or lack of them. We found during the study that forming the livestock rearing system by switching beef the number and type of "institutional"' interventions in a production to dairy production. This will obviously particular community impacted on the priority assigned imply families investing more money and time. A to the measures by the communities. For example, the related but a lower priority strategy would be to seek San Pedro Community (Plains), which hitherto had genetic improvements for the beef herd. received little institutional support, awarded priority to measures which required only limited institutional help. The community also foresees improving its farming On the other hand communities such as Saipina techniques by introducing seeds which are more d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 57 tABlE 42. vAllEys: pRioRitiZEd AdAptAtion mEAsUREs, By commUnity Chapicollo (Vitichi) Caña Cruz (El Puente) Oconi (Saipina) Pueblo Abajo (Sicaya) La Silla (Tarvita) 1 micro-gravity dam construction of 5 construction of water lining irrigation canal construction of a atajados and 15 tanks, storage dam on the River of the palermo i 100,000 c.m. dam with appropriate piping oconi cooperative systems 2 construction of atajados management and construction of 40 improving inter- construction of (small dams) with 3000 recovery of soil fertility: domestic atajados community irrigation 50 atajados with m3 capacity 0.5 ha / household channel 4000 c.m. capacity 3 construction of atajados production chain Acquisition by the construction of construction of 6 with 5000 m3 capacity counseling program community of a farm atajados and rainwater micro-irrigation tractor with attachments management systems 4 construction of irrigation construction of 50 family Reforestation and construction of wall construction and infrastructure greenhouses. protection of drinking improvement of (distribution system) water sources irrigation channels 5 Establishment and improvement of livestock provision of certified seed technical assistance silos for storage regeneration of native infrastructure and potatoes for 40 families in for integrated crop of 1000 `quintales' forage species. introduction of goats for oconi management practices of native seed 25 families. involving permanent adaptation to climate change 6 Reinforced concrete improved techniques and provision of hybrid tomato community tracking leadership domestic aljibe (water varieties of traditional seeds for 40 families in and monitoring of training tank) crops and vegetables in oconi climate change 50 orchards 7 Well-drilling (first stage) improved management of project for integrated pest micro-irrigation installation of local varieties and management of potato systems in rainfed sprinkler irrigation introduction of new and tomato cultivation for areas for families and varieties of fruit trees in 40 families in oconi for sharing between 50 orchards. families 8 improved livestock folds marketing vegetables and implementation of custard traditional products apple (chirimoya) jointly. production project using micro- irrigation 9 drilling ­ submersible small tools needed to training courses for 40 pump (second phase) manage agricultural land families in oconi for 50 families. 10 fenced areas for Animal health Exchange of experiences regeneration of forage improvement. with other communities species, improvement of shelters, breeds, provision of equipment 11 Underground water Reforestation and cistern management training in woodland plots of 0.25 ha / household. 12 motorized farm production of woolens by equipment and tools. 10 families. 13 facilities for weaving improved breeds of and sewing goats. 14 dairy production centre plant health surveillance program in fruit orchards. 15 Establishment of tannery 16 silos, supply bases (pirhuas) and seeds 17 production, planting of peaches and installation of mesh to protect from hailstorms. 58 t hE sociA l d imE nsions of Ad AptAtion to c limAtE ch A ng E in B o l i v iA tABlE 43. plAins: pRioRitiZEd AdAptAtion mEAsUREs, By commUnity San Isidro (Yapacani) Puerto San Borja (San Ignacio) Agosto 15 (Yapacani) Valparaiso (San Pedro) 1 Water supply system for construction of water hole Emergency water recovery and community flat boat to cattle (aguada) Educational center transport produce to market. 2 construction of social family plots to be fenced off construction of defenses on to plant fast-growing housing the River yapacaní vegetables. 3 improved dual-purpose grain storage system Repair of 5 km of main road in domestic irrigation using cattle the Agosto 15 community waterwheels in orchards 4 construction of the irrigation pumps to be installed installing windbreaks in rice 30 irrigation pumps for irrigating condorito Bridge paddies family orchards in the valparaiso community (with river water) 5 pilot centre for apiculture construction of artificial Restarting rice production in 10 irrigation pumps for lifting improvement terracing the Agosto 15 community river water to irrigate family vegetable plots 6 controlling high incidence construction of furrow terracing to diversify agricultural of weeds in pastures and (camellones) production by planting citrus orchards and cocoa 7 joint production of citrus and coffee 8 diagnostic study on flowering times of local plants tABlE 44. chAco: pRioRitiZEd AdAptAtion mEAsUREs, By commUnity Aguayrenda (Villa Vaca Guzman) San Francisco (Charagua) 1 Repair and expansion of community water system improvement and expansion of drinking water system 2 Repair of water tapping inlet, construction of storage tank and Early crops of soft corn, pearl maize and beans in 22 installation of pressurized irrigation family plots 3 Better soil cultivation, hoeing, selection of early peanut varieties at improvement and protection of 2 ha family plots for better prices growing combined crops 4 protection of cultivated areas construction of micro-irrigation system to make best use of river water 5 construction of a reservoir and relevant infrastructure to improve Animal traction for soil management and conservation of irrigation arable land 6 selection of early-yield drought resistant rice seed forest management and rehabilitation of native species 7 protection of rice paddies 8 management and recovery of native forest using rotation methods 9 soil management of plots in protected areas 10 combining fruit and vegetable cultivation resistant to drought, requesting technical support and production. It can be observed from all this that the training to help with this changeover. community is considering a radical transformation of its livelihood strategies as a necessary step toward adapting Finally the community awards priority to measures for to climate change. strengthening its own organization and training and will need to seek financial help for underpinning value- A second key trend noted is that the order of implemen- added economic activities to complement farming tation is vitally important. Prioritized actions cannot be d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 59 tABlE 45. AltiplAno: pRioRitiZEd AdAptAtion mEAsUREs, By commUnity Contorno Calacoto Jila Manasaya Uta (Curawara Chaquilla (Porco) (Calacoto) Pampajasi (Pucarani) Carangas) 1 improved water irrigation construction of wells construction of a dam construction of multifamily water management systems to streamline and water catchment system water use and reduce silting facilities 2 construction of new irrigation construction of construction of reservoirs drilling wells and installing hand channels to include water tapping reservoirs pumps for drinking water facilities and water flow chambers for efficient irrigation. 3 measures to recover degraded improvement of Build infrastructure for improving family wells and wetlands (fencing, fertilization, pastures and fodder dairy herd management installing hand pumps irrigation and replanting) 4 training and user awareness to livestock management and improvement of native grasslands enable sustainable use of available infrastructure improvement of with the construction of infiltration resources. agricultural production trenches and planting native grass seeds 5 construction of roofed livestock support for farming management and construction of abajados for shelters and other necessary activities conservation of fodder irrigating wetlands (bofedales) infrastructure to upgrade production 6 comprehensive animal health management of low- improvement of dairy program interest loan finance herds 7 to improve reproductive and genetic technical training in to support the management. various activities establishment of a body to produce and sell aggregates 8 training and awareness among to organize a vegetable production in livestock raisers for the sustainable producers solar-heated enclosures production and handling of animals. Association 9 construction and / or repair of improvement of handling and production defenses and retaining walls in productive of potato crops cultivated terraced plots. infrastructure 10 improvement of irrigation canals and management and water tapping facilties for efficient livestock genetic use of irrigation water. improvement 11 opening and / or construction of processing and drainage ditches to prevent moisture marketing of local damage to crops. products 12 organic farming using selected native species and varieties tolerant to adverse weather conditions. 13 training and awareness-raising of community residents to protect and preserve soils used for growing crops Source: Community Workshops undertaken haphazardly because most measures require supply of water; (ii) to improve grasslands and fodder; others to be implemented first in order to generate the (iii) to move ahead with livestock infrastructure appropriate conditions for further action. construction once the feeding situation is resolved; (iv) to strengthen community organization; and finally, As noted above, residents of the Contorno Calacoto once all the minimum technical conditions are in place, community are planning key changes to their livestock (v) to introduce genetic improvements for the livestock. rearing system by introducing semi-stabled cattle. The It is considered that unless the measures can be under- steps to be taken are therefore: (i) to guarantee a good taken in this order the adaptation exercise would fail. 60 t hE sociA l d imE nsions of Ad AptAtion to c limAtE ch A ng E in B o l i v iA throughout the study we were able to identify 46 water tABlE 46. AdAptAtion stRAtEgy of management measures, and it is noteworthy that in 38 thE contoRno cAlAcoto cases (83 percent) such measures were put forward as commUnity being among the top three priorities of the communities. Table 47 below confirms that water management is the Priority Measure foremost measure needed for adapting to climate change. 1 construction of wells and water capture facilities 2 construction of reservoirs (water capture) Adaptation strategies for drought 3 improvement of pasture and forage 4 livestock infrastructure (pens, stables) Adaptation to drought, especially by improving water 5 support for agricultural activities (seeds,tA and management, involves a switch from rainfed farming to training) irrigated systems. This is a major change with important 6 low interest financing management implications. 7 technical training in different activities 8 to organize a producers´Association Firstly, installing an irrigation system involves construct- 9 to improve productive infrastructure (soil ing an appropriate infrastructure and training users in management) its operation and maintenance. Communities have 10 handling and genetic improvement for cattle proposed various types of infrastructure. The most 11 processing and marketing of local products noteworthy case is probably that of Chapicollo (Vitichi Municipality, Valleys) whose adaptation strategy embraces 16 measures of which eight concern water A third trend is that the strategies are comprehensive management employing different types of infrastruc- and not confined to investments in infrastructure. These ture. The community proposes, for example, the strategies include, apart from installing the correct construction of a dam to supply a small part of the land infrastructure (perhaps the costliest step), training, advi- located in the bottom of a valley. For land on the slopes sory and organizational support measures. it is proposed to construct two types of atajados (large and small dams/reservoirs). Meanwhile, in order to Finally, a fourth trend is that water management resolve the drinking water issue various measures have measures generally have top priority. In 14 of the 15 been advanced to serve this dispersed community: well communities surveyed, measures to deal with water drilling, construction of systems for housing rainwater, management are prioritized. On the other hand, building underground cisterns, etc. tABlE 47. oRdER of pRioRity foR AdAptAtion mEAsUREs Order of priority Type of measure 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Grand Total Water management 14 9 5 5 3 1 3 3 3 46 infrastructure 2 2 1 1 6 livestock improvement 4 2 5 2 2 1 1 2 1 20 improvement of agriculture 4 3 5 6 6 4 4 1 1 1 1 1 37 Environmental management 1 1 1 3 training and advice 1 1 2 1 3 1 1 1 11 financing and credit 1 1 Employment and value-added activities 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 10 grand Total 15 15 15 15 15 13 11 8 7 6 4 3 3 2 1 1 134 d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 61 The community of Pueblo Abajo (Sicaya, Valleys), iden- where crops are not as prone to drought. These commu- tifies three water management measures: nities, such as San Isidro and Agosto 15, propose intro- ducing new species and varieties which require less · expanding the coverage and capacity of the existing water and which can withstand higher temperatures. water system; · building atajados for harvesting rain; and Finally, secondary (lowest priority) measures concern · building an irrigation system to take advantage of changing production techniques, introducing technical an existing water source. training and examining ways of generating supplemen- tary income from different sources. Chapicollo, Caña Secondly, irrigated agriculture involves changing entire Cruz, and Oconi, for example, argue that tanning, farming or animal breeding systems. Introduction of cloth-making, and dairy production fall into this cate- irrigated agriculture involves for example: gory, while Contorno Calacoto and Pampajasi mention moving into the processing and marketing of · new types of agricultural equipment and aggregates. tools. Communities where irrigation is being intro- duced for the first time (e.g., Caña Cruz and El Adaptation strategies for flooding Puente) require assistance for purchasing tools; · growing different crops and introducing new spe- Only three communities in our sample (Agosto 15, cies and varieties require technical training and a Valparaiso, and Puerto San Borja) claimed that climate supply of genetic material (e.g., the Oconi commu- change would cause increased flooding in their areas. nity approach); · upgrading conservation and storage systems for the Key actions proposed by these communities include new crops. (e.g., La Sillada community). infrastructure works and acquiring new equip- ment. Puerto San Borja proposes constructing artificial Another common response to the need for coping with terraces (camellones) and hillocks (lomas) to avoid losing drought is to change the livestock rearing system by crops and livestock at flood times, and fencing off agri- switching from an extensive system to a controlled cultural plots on higher ground to prevent animals seek- semi-stabled system, inevitably involving substantial ing refuge in them during floods. disruption for families and communities. Agosto 15 proposes rebuilding the educational center in Such a response also involves upgrading the manage- a more protected location, building a flood defense ment of grassland and woodland grazing, replacing free system on the banks of the river, and reconstructing a and unrestricted access with a controlled and regulated stretch of road in a place less susceptible to flooding. system. Controlled grazing means that families will need to devote more time to raising their cattle. Rearing Valparaiso, which has received the least institutional livestock will therefore need to be a more productive intervention, proposes purchasing a community boat to activity (to justify the increase in labor), which in turn help relocate families in the event of flooding. The involves improving animal health and reproduction, community also maintains that it will introduce annual especially through the use of genetics to upgrade the crops such as vegetables and other species that can be stock. harvested before the beginning of the flood season. The proposed changes to cropping systems can be n o n - pR i oRi t iZ Ed m E As U R Es clearly observed in the livelihood strategies of Contorno Calacoto, Chaquilla, Porco, Caña Cruz, and El Puente. A number of "spontaneous" measures used in the past were not included in the adaptation strategies: A further approach is to introduce improvements with- out the need for irrigation. This is particularly the case 1. Seasonal migration: a common practice in rural com- in communities on the plains where rainfall is high and munities, even without climate change, but in 62 t hE sociA l d imE nsions of Ad AptAtion to c limAtE ch A ng E in B o l i v iA drought or flood scenarios temporary migration has Catchment basin management will undoubtedly be become a kind of Plan B, which comes into play given priority both in the flood and drought scenar- when other adaptation measures fail to work (e.g., ios since this adaptation measure tends to increase insufficient irrigation). tree cover in the specific area of the basin, control 2. Land abandonment: also a common practice for fam- erosion, reduce water runoff, and increase the infil- ilies who cease farming land, because it has become tration to feed the underground streams and reduce too exposed to drought or flooding, and relocate to swollen rivers during flood periods. other areas. Entire communities have been known to move to areas further away. This practice, however, p E RcE p t i o n o f l o cA l tends to be costly, involving rebuilding the social A U t h oR i t iE s A Bo Ut cl i m AtE infrastructure, housing, roads, etc. In certain cir- ch A n gE A d A p tAt i o n cumstances this will effectively be a Plan B to which people resort when other adaptation measures fail or climate change are beyond the community's resources. Our interviews revealed that all the municipal authori- As with temporary migration, abandoning the land ties had heard of climate change but not all of them had forms part of the stock of campesino responses to particularly accurate knowledge. They all claimed that climate hazards. However, land abandonment was this was a matter of concern that could have a negative not prioritized in our study as an adaptation measure effect on the development of their municipalities. Most given that the logic applied to identifying adaptation of the local authorities believe that climate change is a measures was on the lines of: "What should we do "thing of the future." to adapt and not have to abandon the community." In the majority of municipalities14 (11 cases out of 14) We do not want to move the community. This the authorities saw climate change as a problem for the would be an easy way out for the authori- future and with little current impact. In the 11 munici- ties. We want to stay in our community despite palities, six were unable to identify clear changing flooding. It took a lot of effort to build our trends in temperatures or rainfall and appeared more community here and it is now a strategic place, concerned with climate variability and "El Niño" a port where everybody goes through. We need phenomenon. Officials in the five remaining municipal help to stay in our own place and not to get us to authorities agreed that temperatures were higher than move. (Aydee Jimenez, Beni) 3. Water catchment basin management: was not men- tioned frequently in the course of the study. Passing tABlE 48. locAl AUthoRity reference was made to it in discussions about the pERcEptions of thE timing of management of grasslands and forests and environ- mental recovery. Nevertheless, when referring to the climAtE chAngE causes and effects of climate change, communities Municipalities argued that excessive deforestation was the main climate change is something in the future 11 cause of erosion and shortage of rain. climate change is with us now 3 Catchment area management usually involves several communities. The measure was not included in Source: Interview with local authorities community adaptation measures because its inclu- sion would have required the concurrence of all the communities located within the basin concerned (the study methodology addressed individual 14 No clear trend can be detected on a per macro-region level. This number (11) includes municipalities from all the macro-regions. The communities rather than entire groups of communi- most evident trend is that these are the municipalities where the ties located in river basins). climatic scenarios mainly concern drought. d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 63 previously, but they made no reference to the fact that Adaptation measures Envisaged by this had negative effects on agriculture or on the lives of municipal Authorities the communities, apparently believing that the effects and impacts of climate change were something to be In the course of our study we were unable to identify tackled at a future date. any specific official climate change adaptation measures in any of the municipalities. No programs existed and Local authorities in only three of the 14 municipalities no resources had been assigned to climate change. The in our sample agreed that climate change had already municipal governments generally confined themselves commenced, since their municipalities had been affected to arguing that climate change was a new problem that by heavy flooding. It was noted, however, that official was gradually being addressed. views were not unanimous: two of the municipalities averred that the floods were directly caused by El Niño In a number of municipalities concrete actions had been and that climate change had caused this phenomenon undertaken that could be interpreted as being related to to be more frequent and intense than previously. In all climate change, but these related mainly to emergency three cases it was considered that climate change was assistance to deal with climatic hazards such as flooding already affecting Bolivia, but that these effects had only and drought. The latter was provided in the form of become apparent over the last 10 years. food aid for people affected by drought and, in the case of flood victims, food and medical/healthcare assistance It can be argued that a difference exists between the had been offered. campesino viewpoint and that of the local authorities. People in the communities were adamant that climate Municipal authorities have also been called upon to change had started twenty or thirty years ago and was a invest in repairing infrastructure damaged by flooding. continuing process, affecting their lives and livelihoods, while most of the authorities reckoned that climate In one of the areas studied (Yapacaní), which was change was a thing of the future and would come about particularly vulnerable to flooding, it was mentioned suddenly (with the exception of officials in municipali- that a specific risk management program had been ties that had been affected by flooding, who considered established, consisting of an early warning system and that climate change began around 10 years ago). educational outreach for the population to warn of the need to take precautions in the event of severe floods. Officials also differed from the campesinos in their atti- This was a pilot project being taken forward jointly tudes towards the timing and effects of climate change, with private development institutions. arguing that climate change would be catastrophic, would come about without warning and cause wide- The bulk of municipal investments are focused on spread tragedy. The campesinos on the other hand development work. This includes water management, argued that climate change was a continuous, gradual agricultural and livestock improvement projects, etc., process to which they could adapt. Explaining the offi- not explicitly linked to climate change. cial approach, Daniel Maydana, the Mayor of Curawara, told researchers: possible municipal interventions Related to Adaptation In our community it would seem that over the last 10 years it has certainly got warmer and at critical When local authorities were asked how they could best times water is in short supply. But for the moment support communities to adapt to climate change, the climate change is not a problem here and is not responses were given in imprecise and general terms, recognized as such in this municipality. It's true due no doubt to the fact that the issue is still relatively that there are natural disasters but these have new on the local agenda. An analysis of the responses always been common in our area and we have an from the 14 municipalities indicates a number of inter- annual budget of Bs35,000 to deal with this. No esting trends, with the authorities identifying 10 types doubt in future there will be more disasters. of interventions, as displayed in the figure below. 64 t hE sociA l d imE nsions of Ad AptAtion to c limAtE ch A ng E in B o l i v iA The communities, rather than awarding priority to one- figURE 21. possiBlE mUnicipAl off projects, have worked out complex strategies invEstmEnt in AdAptAtion combining a range of investments (including training) needed to transform production systems based upon Infrastructure machinery Water management and transport control of water resources. 27% 16% Enviromental management Climate change is, however, a new issue for the munici- 11% pal authorities and, regardless of community concerns, Agricultural it is obvious that local authorities have not thought improvements 8% systematically and deeply about climate change--and Credit and finance 14% Livestock even less about the measures needed to adapt to it. improvements Development of policy and 8% There can be no doubt that the official approach and institutional framework 5% Agricultural commercialization the related investment strategies will change signifi- Capacity building Disaster and employment and training response 5% cantly once the authorities begin to regard climate 3% 3% change as a priority, and above all when they open discussions with the communities about the various adaptation measures required. Municipal authorities awarded priority to the construc- support needed by local governments tion of water management infrastructure (dams, ataja- dos, potable water systems, etc.), followed in order of Local authorities were asked what support they importance by financing for anti-flood defenses, hous- required from the central government to deal with ing, roads and bridges, environmental management, and climate change. The main responses were as follows: agricultural/livestock improvement. Three percent of projected measures would target emergency relief. Comparing the types of measures envisaged by the authorities with those prioritized by the communities it figURE 22. compARAtivE AnAlysis can be observed that, overall, both give priority to water, of AdAptAtion mEAsUREs arguing that water management is the main climate adap- tation measure to be taken. This is the only major point of 35% agreement between the authorities and the communities. 30% 25% As can be seen in Figure 22, the communities and the 20% authorities gave significantly different priorities to the 15% types of projects, except for water management. 10% Communities give greater importance to investments 5% related to "improving agriculture," "improving livestock rearing." "processing and marketing," and "advice and 0% nts ce k ts ng e rt t nt nt en or training." On the other hand, the local authorities place ns po en me me an ini me ew em po ns em fin tra ge loy am ve es tra ag ov nd na nd mp ro greater importance on "infrastructure building," regulating rr l fr an pr nd it a ma mp ga ste de na rm im ya ed ki din sa tio tal an al ate er toc Cr access to natural resources ("environmental management," Di titu ur en uil hin on W ult es yb om ins ati ac ric Liv cit vir liz em nd regulatory frameworks, etc.) and emergency assistance. Ag pa En cia ya tur Ca er lic uc mm From this it is clear that climate adaptation from the po str co of ra Inf nt al viewpoint of the municipal authorities is mainly a ques- ur me ult lop ric ve tion of investing in infrastructure works, while for the Ag De Authorities Communities communities adaptation to climate change is principally a process targeted at transforming livelihood systems. d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 65 1. Development and implementation of national stan- dards to curb environmental degradation, particu- figURE 23. sUppoRt REQUiREd larly deforestation and grassland burning; fRom cEntRAl govERnmEnt 2. Additional funding for municipal budgets, specifi- cally for adaptation to climate change; Credit and finance Development of policy 3. National and departmental irrigation projects to be and institutional 25% framework undertaken; 25% 4. Training and technical advice for municipal author- ities and technical staff on climate change: causes, effects and possible impacts and the role of local Capacity building and training government. 13% Water management 21% Livestock improvements The above figure indicates that local municipal authori- 4% ties clearly hope that Central Government will help Enviromental Infrastructure, machinery management and transport them to develop the local capacities needed to address 8% 4% climate change. 66 9. sUmmARy And regardless of the particular ecosystem in which they are located. The most significant trends compared with conclUsions 20­30 years ago were identified as: (i) rising tempera- tures and increased shortage of water; and (ii) increas- clim AtE ch Ang E ingly irregular rainfall with shorter and more intense rainy seasons. The campesinos in Bolivia's Amazon Observation of the climate is a permanent practice in the region claimed that temperatures were higher, more rain communities. fell than previously, and that floods were more frequent, more intense, and lasted longer. Campesino and indigenous communities possess a long and rich tradition of systematically observing climate the communities regard drought and floods evolution, since their livelihoods depend upon it. The as being the main problems in the climate results of our study showed that communities generally scenario for the future. have an accurate knowledge of changing climate trends over the long term. Judging from the climate trends observed, the commu- nities studied have come to the conclusion that the However, the community workshops revealed that there most probable future climate scenario will involve was little capacity for forecasting shorter-term climate higher temperatures and water shortages affecting the changes. Climate change and increased climate variabil- country's four micro-regions, together with higher rain- ity means that many of the traditional climate indica- fall and extensive flooding in the Amazon. tors are no longer effective, which obliges the communities to construct new indicators for predicting c l i mAtE c hA n gE i m pA c t s weather over the short term. Climate change Will Have negative effects on communities´ The powers of observation and interpretation of the quality of life. climate possessed by people in the communities areim- portant advantages which authorities should take into All communities came to the conclusion that climate account when designing climate change policies. change will have an immediate and direct effect: a sharp decline in production capacity, related to a reduction of the key climate change trends identified by soil, grassland, and forest-based productivity due mainly the communities are rising temperatures to insufficient water to offset the expected higher and increased water scarcity. temperatures and consequent evapotranspiration. Reduced production is likely to mean economic hard- One of the main conclusions of our study is that ship for many families who will have fewer surplus climate change has been observed in all communities, goods to sell. d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 67 In addition to impacting negatively on farming jobs, The poorest families in the flood regions were judged to climate change will also lead to people eating poorer be less able to protect themselves (because of poor quality food and less of it. All the communities partici- housing, lack of boats, etc.) from generalized flooding pating in the study without exception considered that of entire communities. hunger and increased disease would become an issue. They also drew attention to the negative effects of It was also found that households headed by single climate change on children's education. women (with no males of working age), elderly people, or with male members unable to work, find it more The communities also believe that the climate change is difficult to cope with climatic hazards. likely to speed deterioration of the environment, especially the wooded areas and grazing pastures. In the case of the A dA p tAt i o n mE A sU R Es to latter, it was claimed that pastures would be unable to c l i mAt E c hA n gE provide grazing for the present number of animals, and the cost of upgrading pastures would be prohibitively high. The communities formulated their adaptation measures to climate change on a participatory basis, based upon l ivElihood stRAtE giE s to the prioritized climate scenarios. An average of nine clim At E ch A ngE adaptation measures was identified per community, with the following key features: The livelihoods of the poorest are most vulnerable to climate change. strategies and Adaptation measures Identifying and categorizing family livelihood strategies, In their discussions on climate change the communities our researchers detected a wide range of livelihood tended not to consider isolated measures or projects but strategies among families in the various communities. rather to think in terms of a group of adaptation measures These strategies varied, depending on the opportunities that could be prioritized together over time. They firmly and constraints existing in the immediately surrounding believed that implementing adaptation "strategies" rather environment. than "measures" should be the most important goal. The study also found that there was a direct relation- These strategies vary significantly from one community to ship between families´ livelihood strategies and their another regardless of their belonging to the same ecosys- socio-economic strata, demonstrating that swapping one tem. We noted that strategies differed not only in the type strategy for another depended not on freedom of choice of measures included but also in their order of priority. but on the resources that families happened to possess. The great variety of community adaptation strategies The communities were given the opportunity to analyze can be explained by the diversity of Bolivia in agro- the impacts of climate change, concluding that certain ecological, cultural, social, and political livelihood strategies were more vulnerable than others. terms. Community views on adaptation to climate The poorest families in the communities considered change depend primarily on the communities´ level of themselves to be the most vulnerable given that they exposure to climate change, the importance of the main were more exposed to the problems of climate change lifestyle strategies in a particular community, available and had fewer means of responding. resources, and, finally, their experience with measures that have already been adopted in the past. Livelihood strategies based on rainfed agriculture and extensive livestock raising were considered to be the the importance of implementing measures most vulnerable since they depended directly on the in sequence amount and timing of rainfall. The already precarious and poorly diversified nature of this kind of farming The communities believe that prioritized measures means that it is more exposed to risks. cannot be implemented haphazardly but must be carried 68 t hE sociA l d imE nsions of Ad AptAtion to c limAtE ch A ng E in B o l i v iA out in strict order of precedence. This is determined by supply of the right quality and quanity and at the right the fact that certain actions require the prior execution time. Good water management involves constructing of measures that create the appropriate conditions for new capture and storage infrastructure, improving further measures to be undertaken. Changing the logical distribution systems, and optimizing water usage. This order of implementation runs the risk of not achieving range of proposals by the communities can be summed the desired results. For example new breeds of animals up as follows: (i) the importance of capturing rainwater should be introduced only after the question of how to in the Altiplano and Valleys, storing it, and making best feed the animals has been resolved, not vice versa. use of it at times of the year when it is scarcest; and (ii) to reduce the effect of flooding in the lowlands. All Adaptation is essentially a social process. this implies shifting from rainfed to irrigated farming practices. Furthermore, the communities argued that identifica- tion and implementation of adaptation strategies are Adaptation through grassland and forest management not individual processes relating to a single family. On improvement. the contrary, the strategies require groups and commu- nities to participate and collaborate in this task. All the communities identified that grazing pastures Effectively the strategies are regarded as "social strate- were likely to deteriorate as a result of climate change gies." It follows that adaptation measures need to be and that their capacity to feed animals would diminish. analyzed, prioritized, and negotiated with the agreement In order to avoid overloading pastureland (resulting in of all members of the community. In the event major further deterioration of grassland) the campesinos were measures are needed (road construction, river basin of the opinion that major changes needed to be made management, etc.) negotiations should be undertaken to the ways in which pastures and forests were jointly by various communities. managed, i.e., to regulate access and develop methods for regenerating the vegetation cover. This change Adaptation involves major changes in life systems. implies a major change in livestock farming meth- ods--from free range to controlled grazing and semi- Communities believe that adaptation is not simply a stabling--as well as for campesinos to spend more question of investing in infrastructure but requires orga- time on their livestock-related activities in order to nizational development, training, and changes in living produce more profitable herds. This obviously implies systems. introducing new breeds, installing proper shelters, training, etc. Adaptation strategies involve changes to production systems, such as switching from rainfed to irrigated Adaptation involving developing new complementary systems, switching from free grazing to controlled graz- economic activities. ing or from extensive to intensive livestock raising. Adoption of these new production systems involves not Communities agree that farming alone will not be suffi- only changes of economic logic but also technological, cient to tackle climate change and that it is necessary to organizational, and financial changes. With regard to the develop other, higher value-added activities producing latter, close attention has to be paid to the amount of goods that can be sold to generate higher returns, capital available for investing in family production units. processing farm produce, and developing mining activities and trades, etc.--all of which generally involves investing Water resource management as a basis for adaptation to in technical training and organizational support. climate change. t hE l o cA l i n s t i tUt i o nAl Adaptation strategies include measures to manage water f R AmE Wo R K resources during both droughts and floods. A substan- tial number of proposals have been put forward for A favorable institutional framework for adaptation managing water, all of them targeted at ensuring water exists at local level. d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 69 The study revealed that all the municipalities private developed--given that adaptation implies a fundamental institutions (NGOs, producer associations, social orga- change in livelihood strategies for communities, rather nizations, and trade unions) over many years had than being confined to one-off investments. fostered and supported development as an adjunct to the efforts of different levels of government. Local authorities require national government support for developing their capacity to adapt to climate change. At least half of such private institutions had sufficient operational capacity to become useful partners in Local authority officials stressed that coordinated action formulating public policy initiatives aimed at adaptation between central and local governments was needed to to climate change. adequately support adaptation measures. Local authori- ties argued that the following specific commitments thE viEW of locAl AU thoRi t iE s from central government were required: A notable distinction exists between the views of communi- 1. Development and implementation of national stan- ties and local authorities with regard to climate change. dards to curb environmental degradation, particu- larly deforestation and grassland burning; The local officials interviewed believe that climate 2. Additional funding for municipal budgets targeted change is something that will come about in the future specifically at climate change adaptation; and that tackling it would involve a series of adaptation 3. Irrigation projects to be undertaken at the national measures, especially infrastructure-building. and departmental levels; 4. Training and technical advice for municipal author- This approach differs substantially from that revealed in ities and technical staff regarding the causes, our interviews in the communities, where it is considered effects, and possible impacts of climate change and that climate change has been an accepted part of life for an examination of the role of local government in many years and that addressing it requires strategies to be addressing this problem. 70 10. REcommEndAtions foR investments have been identified and prioritized in dEsigning policiEs in community and municipal workshops in which civil society has had a direct role in decision-making. sUppoRt of AdAptAtion Prioritizing public investments in a community is a complex and sensitive process which depends largely on the information available to the campesinos and The following recommendations for formulating poli- on the power relationships existing between them. cies in support of adaptation to climate change are In short, it is the result of a delicate negotiating based upon the results of our study: process which can be destabilized by external intervention. 1. We recommend that Central Government, when 4. We recommend that the different levels of govern- defining public policies for adaptation to climate ment should create opportunities at the multi-com- change, should value the experience of the munity, regional, departmental, and national levels campesino and indigenous communities. for deciding on the prioritization and scale of adap- Adaptation to climate change is nothing new in tation measures to be undertaken. It is clear that these communities, where people have developed many adaptation-related investments extend beyond appropriate livelihood systems in keeping with a the purely local community environment. dynamic and ever-changing environment. The 5. The state needs to take into account the fact that communities possess a veritable storehouse of strat- climate adaptation requires substantial investment egies and a wide and valuable diversity of responses in infrastructure (mainly water management) but to the problems. We believe, therefore, that efforts that infrastructure investment is not by itself suffi- to define national climate change policies should cient. Resources need to be targeted also at train- rise above purely technical prescriptions and be ing, equipment, research, and organizational enriched with the real life experiences of ordinary support. One-off, isolated investments will never people living in the communities. succeed. 2. Defining the adaptation measures (including the 6. We also recommend that within the scope of their technical details) to be implemented must involve a powers and jurisdiction the different levels of gov- coordinated dialogue between communities, sup- ernment should formulate a clear and effective nor- ported by trained technical personnel and local gov- mative framework to support the efforts of the ernment technical specialists. communities to regulate access to grassland and for- 3. Public support for adaptation to climate change ests (a key element of adaptation). The study found must be in line with the investment priorities of the that communities are planning to apply the rules communities themselves. Since the implementation governing communal access to natural resources in of the Popular Participation Program, municipal accordance with the new realities imposed by d E v E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 71 climate change. However, given that the grasslands limited, the State must give preferential treatment and forests extend beyond community lands, addi- to the most vulnerable sectors which, as identified tional regulations will need to be formulated by the in our study, are the poorest of the poor. The study various levels of government. succeeded in identifying communities in the central 7. The central government should be required to pro- and southern Altiplano, the inter-Andean valleys, vide more information and training to local authori- and the Chaco as well as the riverine communities ties and specialists on climate change impacts and in the lowlands. Other vulnerable sectors are: adaptation policies. Climate change is a new topic (i) those surviving on rainfed agriculture and exten- in Bolivia, and the sub-national levels of govern- sive livestock farming; (ii) communities located on ment do not yet have sufficient information to deal the banks of the rivers in the lowlands; (iii) house- adequately with it. holds short of male workers, comprising elderly 8. The State should be called upon to implement a people and single women with young children, or comprehensive information program to raise the those with male members physically unable to work; awareness of communities throughout the country and (iv) extremely poor families who own little land about the causes, effects, and impacts of climate or whose land is of such poor quality that produc- change, drawing on the results of studies and tion is negligible and who generally possess no sav- research. This information would assist communi- ings to offset income losses and no capital to invest ties to define as accurately as possible their own in adaptation. adaptation strategies. 11. We recommend that for the above-mentioned most 9. The State should also take into account that at local vulnerable sectors, the State should institute, in level a number of private institutions, social organi- addition to its climate adaptation support pro- zations, producer associations, etc. could be called grams, specific social protection programs upon to cooperate as partners with the government designed to help the poorest families and commu- during the formulation of public climate adaptation nities to cope with the worst impacts of climate policies. change. Thus, the Crop Insurance Program now 10. Climate change affects everyone, but some sectors underway should be designed in such a way that it are more vulnerable than others. Given that is easily accessible to the people most vulnerable to resources for proceeding with adaptation will be climate change. The World Bank Group 1818 H Street, NW Washington, D.C. 20433 USA Tel: 202-473-1000 Fax: 202-477-6391 Internet: www.worldbank.org/climatechange