65832 THE GAMBIA Ministry of Basic and Secondary Education The Gambia EDUCATION COUNTRY STATUS REPORT The findings, interpretations and conclusions expressed in this volume do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of the World Bank, UNESCO or the Government of The Gambia. Content Content Content 6 Foreword 14 Acknowledgments 16 Abbreviations 18 Executive Summary 22 Policy Recommendations Matrix 48 CHAPTER 1 DEMOGRAPHIC, SOCIAL AND MACROECONOMIC CONTEXTS 59 Demography and Social Development Indicators 61 Macroeconomic Context 65 CHAPTER 2 ENROLLMENT PATTERNS 71 Overview of the Structure of the Education System 73 Enrollment Trends 75 Schooling Profile 80 Supply and Demand Analysis of Lower Basic Out-of-School and Dropout 86 CHAPTER 3 EDUCATION COST AND FINANCING 91 Overview of Education Financing 93 Public Recurrent Expenditure 98 Public Recurrent Unit Costs, by Level 101 Development Expenditure and Comparison of School Building Costs 106 6 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) CHAPTER 4 INTERNAL EFFICIENCY AND LEARNING OUTCOMES 111 Internal Efficiency at the Basic and Secondary Levels 114 Quality and Learning Outcomes 117 Summary of Findings with Policy Perspectives 136 CHAPTER 5 EXTERNAL EFFICIENCY 143 Education and Human Development 145 Relevance of Education to the Labor Market 151 CHAPTER 6 EQUITY AND DISPARITIES 163 Enrollment Inequalities 165 Analysis of Equity in the Distribution of Public Education Resources 176 CHAPTER 7 MANAGEMENT ISSUES 183 Administrative Issues in Basic and Secondary Schools 185 Economies of Scale Related to School Size 202 Pedagogical Management: Transformation of Inputs into Learning Outcomes 204 CHAPTER 1 ANNEXES 210 CHAPTER 2 ANNEXES 223 CHAPTER 3 ANNEXES 224 CHAPTER 4 ANNEXES 228 CHAPTER 5 ANNEXES 240 CHAPTER 7 ANNEXES 257 References 266 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 7 Content List of Figures Figure 1.1 GDP per Capita Growth, in Current and 2009 Constant Prices, 2004-10 66 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Figure 2.1 Structure of the Gambian Education System 74 Figure 2.2 Lower Basic Enrollment Trend, 2000-09 76 Figure 2.3 Upper Basic and Senior Secondary Enrollment Trend (Excluding TVET), by Level, 2000-09 77 Figure 2.4 Distribution of Higher Education Students in Public Institutions, by Field of Study, 2005/06 and 2009/10 78 Figure 2.5 Cross-Sectional Schooling Profile, 2009 80 Figure 2.6 Survival Profile, 2009 82 Figure 2.7 Educational Pyramid for The Gambia, 2009/10 83 Figure 2.8 Educational Pyramid for Sub-Saharan Africa, 2007/08 83 Figure 2.9 Lower Basic GIR and PCR, Cross-Country Comparison, 2009 or LAY 84 Figure 2.10 Upper Basic GIR, Cross-Country Comparison, 2009 or LAY 84 Figure 2.11 Upper Basic Completion Rate, Cross-country Comparison, 2009 or LAY 85 Figure 2.12 School Life Expectancy, Cross-Country Comparison, 2009 or LAY 85 Figure 2.13 Odds Ratio of Children being Out-of-School, by Characteristic, 2006 88 Figure 2.14 Distribution of Out-of-School Children (Aged 7-15 Years), by Wealth Quintile and Region, 2006 89 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Figure 3.1 Education Share of Public Recurrent Expenditure, The Gambia and ECOWAS Countries, 2009 or LAY 94 Figure 3.2 Public-Private Recurrent Cost-Sharing, by Level of Education, 2009 97 Figure 3.3 Ratio of the Share of Primary Recurrent Education Expenditure to the PCR, ECOWAS Countries, 2008 or LAY 101 Figure 3.4 Average Teachers’ Salaries, African Developing Countries, 2009 or LAY 104 Figure 3.5 Recurrent Education Expenditure other than Teacher’s Salaries, Primary Level, ECOWAS Countries, 2009 or LAY 105 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Figure 4.1 Percentage of Repeaters, for The Gambia and African Low-Income Countries, by Level, 2009 or LAY 115 Figure 4.2 Percentage of Repeaters, by Level and Grade, 2009/10 115 Figure 4.3 Adult Literacy According to Schooling Completed, Selected Countries, 2000-05 118 Figure 4.4 Share of Students Who Could Not Read a Single Word, End of Grade 2 and Grade 3, Cross-Country Comparison, 2008-09 122 Figure 4.5 Gambian and Senegalese EGRA Mean Results and Standard Deviations, by Item, 2007 123 Figure 4.6 Primary Student Learning Outcomes, in SSA Countries, LAY 129 Figure 4.7 Number of GABECE Candidates and Share of Female Candidates, 2002/03-2008/09 130 8 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) Figure 4.8 Success Rate of GABECE Candidates, by Gender, 2002/03-2008/09 131 Figure 4.9 Distribution of Students According to Credits Obtained in the Four GABECE Core Subjects, 2002/03 to 2008/09 132 Figure 4.10 Evolution of GABECE Success Rates, by Core Subject, 2002/03 to 2008/09 132 Figure 4.11 Number of WASSCE Candidates and Share of Female Candidates, 1999/2000-2008/09 134 Figure 4.12 Distribution of Students, by Number of WASSCE Credits and School Ownership, 2008/09 135 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Figure 5.1 The Education, Income and Human Development Triangle 145 Figure 5.2 Impact of Primary Education on Human Development, for 36 SSA Countries, 2007 or LAY 149 Figure 5.3 Distribution of the Social Impact of Education, by Level, The Gambia and SSA Average, 2010 151 Figure 5.4 Distribution of the Adult Population, by Highest Education Level Attained, The Gambia and SSA Average, 2008/09 153 Figure 5.5 Employment Status of the Active Adult Population According to Highest Education Level Attained, 2008/09 155 Figure 5.6 Employment Prospects (Formal and Informal) of Adults with TVET, 2008/09 156 Figure 5.7 Formal Job Insertion Prospects of Adults with Higher Education, 2008/09 156 Figure 5.8 Average Income of the 25-34 Age Group, by Level of Education, 2006 or LAY 158 Figure 6.1 Access Rate, by Grade and Gender, 2009/10 167 Figure 6.2 Access Probability, by Grade and Area of Residence, 2006 168 Figure 6.3 Access Probability, by Grade and Level of Income, 2006 170 Figure 6.4 Access Probability for the Extreme Groups, by Grade, 2006 171 Figure 6.5 Access Probability, by Education Level and Region, 2006 172 Figure 6.6 Relation of Basic Education GER to Number of Teachers per 1,000 Youth (7 to 15 Years), by District, 2009 175 Figure 6.7 Lorenz Curve for the Distribution of Public Education Resources, 2009/10 178 Figure 6.8 Share of Public Education Resources Consumed by the 10 Percent Most Educated, Various African Countries, 2009 or LAY 178 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Map 6.1 Lower Basic Gross Enrollment Rate, by District, 2009/10 173 Map 6.2 Upper Basic Gross Enrollment Rate, by District, 2009/10 174 Map 6.3 Basic Education Gross Enrollment Rate, by District, 2009/10 174 Map 6.4 Supply and Demand Diagnosis, by District, 2009 176 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 9 Content Figure 7.1 Pupils to Teacher Ratio and Share of Teachers Receiving the Hardship Allowance, in Government–Funded Lower Basic Level Schools, by District, 2009/10 187 Figure 7.2 Pupil to Teacher Ratio (Total and Qualified Government-Funded Teachers), and Share of those Qualified, by Level, 2009/10 193 Figure 7.3 Primary Level Pupil to Teacher Ratio in Government-Funded Schools, Various Sub-Saharan African Countries, 2008 or LAY 194 Figure 7.4 Secondary Level Pupil to Teacher Ratio in Government-Funded Schools, Various Sub-Saharan African Countries, 2008 or LAY 195 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Map 7.1 Lower Basic Level PTR in Government-Funded Schools, by District, 2009/10 197 Map 7.2 Lower Basic Level PqTR in Government-Funded Schools, by District, 2009/10 197 Map 7.3 Upper Basic Level PTR in Government-Funded Schools, by District, 2009/10 198 Map 7.4 Upper Basic Level PqTR in Government-Funded Schools, by District, 2009/10 198 Figure 7.5 Teacher Posting Consistency at the Lower Basic Level, Government-Funded Schools, 2009/10 199 Figure 7.6 Teacher Posting Consistency at the Lower Basic Level, Government-Funded Schools, The Gambia and Various SSA Countries, 2009 or LAY 200 Figure 7.7 Teacher Posting Consistency in Government-Funded Lower Basic Schools, by Region, 2009/10 200 Figure 7.8 Estimated Government-Funded Lower Basic School Unit Costs, by School Size, 2009/10 203 Figure 7.9 Estimated Government-Funded Upper Basic School Unit Costs, by School Size, 2009/10 203 Figure 7.10 Relationship between Learning Achievement and Unit Costs, Lower and Upper Basic Levels, 2008 205 List of Tables Table 1.1 The Evolution of the School-Aged Population, by Age Group, 1993-2020 62 Table 1.2 Prevalence of Malnutrition in Children under Five Years, by Area of Residence and Gender, 1996 and 2005 63 Table 1.3 Under-Five and Infant Mortality Rate, 1993 and 2003 64 Table 1.4 Adult HIV/AIDS Prevalence Rate, 2001-07 64 Table 1.5 Key Macroeconomic Indicators, 2004-10 66 Table 1.6 Total Government Revenue, Expenditure and Deficit, 2004-09 68 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Table 2.1 Enrollment Trends, by Education Level and Type of Provider, 2000/01-2009/10 75 Table 2.2 Schooling Coverage, by Level, 2005/06 and 2009/10 78 Table 2.3 Cross-Country Comparison of Schooling Coverage, 2009 or LAY 79 Table 2.4 Construction of the Survival Profile, 2009 81 10 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) Table 2.5 Basic Education Attendance and Out-of-School Children (Aged 7-15 Years), 2006 86 Table 2.6 Share of Lower Basic Schools and Pupils, by Number of Grades Supplied, 2008 and 2009 87 Table 2.7 Share of Students Unable to Pursue their Education in the Same School, 2009 87 Table 2.8 Reasons for School Nonattendance Cited by Households, by Region, 2009 89 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Table 3.1 Breakdown of Education Financing, by Type and Source, 2001-09 93 Table 3.2 Household Education Spending, by Level, 2009 95 Table 3.3 Distribution of Household Education Spending, 2009 97 Table 3.4 Breakdown of Public Recurrent Education Expenditure, by Type, 2007-09 98 Table 3.5 Distribution of Public Recurrent Education Expenditure, by Level, 2009 99 Table 3.6 Distribution of Recurrent Education Expenditure, by Level, for ECOWAS Countries, 2009 or LAY 100 Table 3.7 Public Recurrent Unit Costs, by Level, 2009 101 Table 3.8 Public Recurrent Unit Costs, for ECOWAS Countries, 2009 or LAY 102 Table 3.9 Average Government Basic and Senior Secondary Teacher Salaries, by Level and Qualification, 2009 103 Table 3.10 Pupil to Teacher Ratio in Government Schools, Various African Countries, 2009 or LAY 104 Table 3.11 Recurrent Education Expenditure other than Teachers’ Salaries, Basic and Senior Secondary Levels, by Type, 2009 105 Table 3.12 Cost of Teachers’ Salaries per Pupil, Grant-Aided and Government Schools, by Level, 2009 106 Table 3.13 Development (Capital) Expenditure Financing, by Level and Source, 2007-09 107 Table 3.14 Breakdown of Donor Support to Basic and Senior Secondary Education, by Purpose, 2007/08 and 2008/09 107 Table 3.15 Unit Construction Costs per Classroom, by Level of Education and Source of Funding, 2008-10 108 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Table 4.1 Internal Efficiency, by Level and Source of Wastage, 2009/10 116 Table 4.2 Internal Efficiency, for The Gambia and other African Countries, by Level, 2009 or LAY 117 Table 4.3 Mean EGRA Scores, Grade 1 and Grade 3 Students, 2007 and 2009 120 Table 4.4 Net Impact of Factors on Grade 3 Students’ EGRA Scores, 2009/10 124 Table 4.5 Share of Grade 3 and Grade 5 Students Achieving the NAT Result Minimum Requirement, by Subject and Gender, 2009/10 126 Table 4.6 Net Impact of Factors on the Percentage of Grade 5 Students Achieving the NAT Result Minimum Requirement in English, 2008/09 127 Table 4.7 Factors Affecting GABECE English Success Rates, 2008/09 133 Table 4.8 WASSCE Success Rates in English and Math, WAEC Countries, 2007-09 136 Table 4.9 Potential Measures to Improve Student Learning Achievements at the Basic Education Level, and their Related Impact and Cost 137 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 11 Content Table 5.1 Simulated Net Impact of Education on Various Social Behaviors, 2006 146 Table 5.2 Distribution of the Social Impact of Education, by Level and Type of Behavior, 2006 150 Table 5.3 Distribution of Employment, by Status, Type of Job and Age Group, 2008/09 152 Table 5.4 Distribution of the Employed Adult Population, by Status and Type of Job, 2008/09 153 Table 5.5 Adult Average and Expected Annual Income, by Highest Education Level Attained, 2009 157 Table 5.6 Rates of Return on Education, The Gambia, Benin and Congo, by Level, 2009 159 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Table 6.1 Distribution of the School-Aged Population (5 to 24 Years), by Level, Gender, Area of Residence and Income Quintile, 2006 166 Table 6.2 Gender Disparities in Schooling Patterns, 2009/10 168 Table 6.3 Location Disparities in Schooling Patterns, 2009/10 169 Table 6.4 Income Disparities in Schooling Patterns, by Extreme Income Level, 2006 170 Table 6.5 Regional Disparities in Schooling Patterns, 2006 173 Table 6.6 Structural Distribution of Public Education Resources Allocated to a Pseudo Cohort of 100 Children, by Grade, 2009/10 177 Table 6.7 Disparities in the Appropriation of Public Education Resources, 5 to 24 Years Age-Group, 2006 179 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Table 7.1 Teacher Training Qualifications and Entry Requirements, by Type and Level 189 Table 7.2 Government-Funded Teacher Distribution According to Status, Qualification and Gender, by Level, 2009/10 194 Table 7.3 Pupil to Teacher Ratio (Total and Qualified Government-Funded Teachers), and Share of those Qualified, by Level and Region, 2009/10 196 Table 7.4 English and Math Textbook Distribution in Lower Basic Government Schools, by Grade, 2009/10 201 Table 7.5 Cross-Country Comparison of Textbook Allocation Coherence in Primary Level Government Schools, 2009 or LAY 202 12 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS Currency Unit Dalasi (D) US$ 1 D 27.72 FISCAL YEAR January 1 – December 31 GENERAL NOTES 1. Throughout the report, the regions of The Gambia are referred to by number, for ease of reference. The regions are the following: Number Name Capital 1 Banjul (North District, Central District, South District) & Kanifing Kanifing 2 Western Brikama 3 North Bank Kerewan 4 Lower River Mansakonko 5 Central River Janjanbureh 6 Upper River Basse The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 13 Foreword Foreword M any countries in Africa have placed education at the center of their social and economic development strategies. Although much has been achieved across the region, some challenges remain: millions of children are still not enrolled in primary school; girls, children from poor families, and those from rural areas are at a distinct disadvantage when it comes to schooling; and learning outcomes are weak. In addition, secondary schools are struggling to accommodate children who complete primary school, while institutions providing higher education and technical and vocational education and training often lack labor market relevance, jeopardizing future economic growth. Deeper analytical work to inform education policy is becoming increasingly important. This first Country Status Report for The Gambia is part of an ongoing series of country- specific reports being prepared by government teams technically supported by the World Bank, UNESCO and other development partners. These reports aim to help engage a diverse audience and to develop a shared vision for the future of the education sector, in line with the Paris Declaration on Aid Effectiveness. The Gambia report offers not only traditional and basic indicators such as gross enrollment rates, but also analyzes the performance of the education system in terms of access, internal efficiency and learning outcomes; equity; external efficiency and its alignment with labor market needs; resource allocation and utilization; and management. It takes into account revised population data estimates and projections down to the district level that were computed by the Country Status Report joint team and that were recently published by the Gambia Bureau of Statistics. The report highlights the country’s significant recent progress in terms of education, and the challenges that remain. The Gambia is still among the most advanced countries in the region in terms of enrollment and completion indicators at all education levels. However, enrollment has increased at the same pace as the population and ratios have hence stagnated over the past four years. It is of great concern that 29 percent of children aged 7-15 years have never attended school. In addition the number of dropouts is still too large. Of 100 children who enter the lower basic cycle, only 75 reach Grade 6 and only 60 reach Grade 9. Reaching and retaining these children is a high priority. 14 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) Despite comparatively good results in terms of access, learning outcomes are low compared with other African countries, at all levels: 54 percent of Grade 2 students and 27 percent of Grade 3 students cannot read a single word. Key policy options for improving learning achievements include: reinforcing teachers’ pedagogical skills through the implementation of a comprehensive teacher development policy; increasing the effective teaching time in classrooms; significantly increasing the provision and consistency in the allocation of textbooks, particularly in English; and building on the successful introduction of new pedagogical methods tested in early grades since 2007. In terms of resources, the level of budget priority given to education is comparatively low at 18 percent of total expenditure, compared with the ECOWAS average of 24 percent. Households contribute considerably to the financing of lower basic education, despite the policy of free schooling. Finally, there is scope for improvement in terms of spending efficiency. These findings have already contributed to policy dialogue, as the government presented them during the joint education sector review held in December 2010. Further policy options will be formulated through ongoing policy dialogue and reform. More broadly, this report provides comprehensive resources for anyone interested in education in The Gambia. It is however a snapshot of the system at this particular time, and will require a fresh look in the future. We hope the next such report will reveal tangible evidence of continued progress in learning at all levels of education and that youth exiting the system will soon be equipped with all the skills and competencies needed to support the country’s social and economic development. Fatou Lamin Faye Ritva Reinikka Ann Therese Ndong-Jatta Minister Sector Director Director Ministry of Basic and Human Development Regional Bureau Secondary Education Department Africa Region for Education in Africa The Gambia The World Bank UNESCO The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 15 Acknowlegdments Acknowledgments This country status report was prepared by the government of The Gambia, the World Bank, and UNESCO/BREDA, in close collaboration. The government team consisted of staff from the two ministries in charge of education, and other relevant ministries and departments: The Ministry of Basic and Secondary Education (MoBSE), the Ministry of Higher Education, Research, Science and Technology (MoHERST), the Ministry of Finance and Economic Affairs (MoFEA), the Gambia Bureau of Statistics (GBoS), the National Training Authority (NTA) and the UNESCO National Commission. The government team was led by Sherif Yunus Hydara, Project Manager (PCU-MoBSE) under the overall leadership of Boubacar Bouy, Permanent Secretary (MoBSE). It consisted of Alieu Saho (Chapter leader, GBoS) and Pa Abdoulie Manneh (MoFEA) for Chapter 1; Momodou Sanneh (Chapter leader, MoBSE), Alpha Bah (MoBSE), Samba Sowe (MoBSE) and James Gomez (MoHERST) for Chapter 2; Mohamed Jallow (Chapter co-leader, MoBSE), Sohna Foon-Chore (Chapter co-leader, MoBSE), Sherif Yunus Hydara and Jawara Gaye (PCU- MoBSE) for Chapter 3; Momodou Jeng (Chapter leader, MoBSE), Ousmane Senghor (UNESCO National Commission) and Sosseh Jagne Gillen (WAEC) for Chapter 4; Jainaba Jagne (Chapter leader, MoHERST), Gibou Jobe (NTA) and Lamin Dibba (GBoS) for Chapter 5; Momodou Cham (Chapter leader, MoBSE) and Adama Jimba Jobe (MoBSE) for Chapter 6; and Lamine Fatajo (Chapter leader, MoBSE) and Sang Gomez (MoBSE) for Chapter 7. The World Bank team consisted of Mathieu Brossard (Task Team Leader, Senior Education Economist), Badara Joof (World Bank Liaison Officer), Kokou Amelewonou (Education Economist) and Kebede Feda (Consultant), under the overall guidance of Christopher Thomas (Sector Manager), Peter Materu (Cluster Leader and Acting Sector Manager) and Linda English (Sector Leader). 16 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) The UNESCO team consisted of Diane Coury (Pôle de Dakar, Education Policy Analyst), Jean Luc Yameogo (Pôle de Dakar, Education Policy Analyst) and Lily Hailu Neyestani (PDE, Education Programme Specialist), under the overall guidance of Jean Pierre Jarousse (former Head of Pôle de Dakar-UNESCO/BREDA) and Mohammed Bougroum (Head of Pôle de Dakar-UNESCO/BREDA). Administrative support was received from Yassin Njie (World Bank Banjul office) and Rose- Claire Pakabomba (World Bank Headquarters). The team is also grateful for the translation and editing carried out by Barnaby Rooke and Régis L’Hostis for the graphic design. The team received very useful comments from the peer reviewers Cornelia Jesse (Education Specialist) and Marie-Helene Cloutier (Education Economist), Carlos Cavalcanti (Senior Economist), Luis Crouch (Lead Education Specialist) and Lily Mulatu (Senior Education Specialist). Precious comments were also received from Mamy Rakotomalala (Senior Education Specialist), Barbara Weber (Senior Operations Specialist), Nathalie Lahire (Senior Education Economist) and Benjamin McDonald (World Bank Acting Country Director, The Gambia). This report also received strong support from the Development Partners Group led by Malcolm Duthie (WFP) throughout the process. The Development Partners Group provided valuable inputs at the concept note stage and during the presentation of the key findings of the report by the national team in the December 2010 education joint annual meeting. The report was mainly funded by the Education Program Development Fund, a trust fund of the Education for All/Fast Track Initiative. The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 17 Abbreviations Abbreviations AfDB African Development Bank BADEA Arab Bank for Economic Development in Africa B.Ed. Bachelor of Education BE Basic Education BCS Basic Cycle School CCM Coordinating Committee Meeting CM Cluster Monitor CSR Country Status Report CT Contract Teacher CWIG Core Welfare Indicators Questionnaire D Dalasi DHS Demographic and Health Survey DMC Delegated Management Contract ECD Early Childhood Development ECOWAS Economic Community of West African States EFA-FTI Education for All Fast Track Initiative EGMA Early Grade Mathematic Assessment EGRA Early Grade Reading Assessment EMIS Educational Management Information System GAMWORK Gambian Agency for the Mangement of Public Work GABECE Gambia Basic Education Certificate Examination GAMCOM Gambia Computer and Business Training Institute GBoS Gambia Bureau of Statistics GC The Gambia College GCE General Certificate of Education GDP Gross Domestic Product GER Gross Enrollment Rate GIR Gross Intake Rate GLF Gambia Local Fund GTTI The Gambia Technical Training Institute HDR Human Development Report HE Higher Education HIV/AIDS Human Immunodeficiency Virus / Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome 18 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) HRD Human Resources Directorate HTC Higher Teacher certificate IEC Internal Efficiency Coefficient IFMIS Integrated Financial Management Information System IHS Integrated Household Survey ILO International Labour Organization IMF International Monetary Fund IPAM Institute of Professional Administration and Management KMC Kanifing Municipal Council LAY Last Availiable Year LBE Lower Basic Education LBS Lower Basic School M&E Monitoring and Evaluation MDGs Millennium Development Goals MICS Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey MLA Monitoring Learning Achievement MoBSE Ministry of Basic and Secondary Education MoFEA Ministry of Finance and Economic Affairs MoHERST Ministry of Higher Education, Research, Science and Technology NAT National Assessment Test NGO Non Governmental Organization NTA National Training Authority ODA Official Development Assistance OEDC Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development OVC Orphans and Vulnerable Children PASEC Program on the Analysis of Education Systems (Programme d'Analyse des Systèmes Educatifs de la CONFEMEN – Conférence des Ministres d’Education des Pays Ayant le Français en Partage) PCR Primary Completion Rate PCU Projects Coordination Unit PqTR Pupil to Qualified Teacher Ratio PPP Purchasing Power Parity PRSP Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 19 Abbreviations PSC Public Service Commission PSIA Poverty and Social Impact Analysis PSLCE Primary School Leaving Certificate Examination PTA Parent Teacher Association PTC Primary Teacher Certificate PTR Pupil to Teacher Ratio QT Qualified Teacher RED Regional Education Directorate SACMEQ Southern African Consortium for the Monitoring of Educational Quality SES Socio-Economic Status SLA Service Letter Agreement SMC School Management Committee SQUAD Standard and Qualify Directorate SSA Sub-Saharan Africa SSE Senior Secondary Education SSS Senior Secondary School TT Teacher Trainee TVET Technical and Vocational Education Training UIS Unesco Institute of Statistics UBS Upper Basic School UBCR Upper Basic Completion Rate UBE Upper Basic Education UNAIDS The Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS UN United Nations UNDP United Nations Development Program UNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization UNICEF United Nations Children’s Fund UQT Unqualified Teacher USAID United State Agency for International Development UTG University of The Gambia WAEC West African Examination Council WASSCE West African Senior School Certificate Examination WFP World Food Programme WSD Whole School Development Programme 20 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 21 Executive Summary Executive Summary The context the education system faces in The Gambia is marked by high but decreasing demographic pressure, and improving social indicators. 1. Even if it is planned to decrease in the future, demographic pressure on the education system is still high. The proportion of the basic school-aged population (7- 15) in the total population is expected to drop slightly from 23.2 percent in 2010 to 22.8 percent in 2020, but numbers will increase from 382,000 to 490,000. Therefore, achieving universal basic education (9 years of schooling) by 2020 will require increasing the system’s capacity in terms of school seats by 70 percent. The Evolution of the School-Aged Population, by Age Group, 1993-2020 2010 (Projection) 2020 (Projection) Total % Total % Total Population 1,644,391 100 2,155,279 100 7-12 Years 264,276 16 333,199 15 13-15 Years 117,552 7 157,300 7 16-18 Years 108,272 7 149,662 7 Subtotal 691,127 42 878,754 41 Source: Authors’ estimations based on GBoS 2003 census Data. 2. Social development indicators are still low, but improving. Poverty has dropped marginally, from 58.0 percent in 2003 to 55.5 percent in 2008. Under-five mortality has dropped from 135 per 1,000 live births in 1993 to less than 100 in 2010. The malaria mortality rate is 106 per 100,000 inhabitants. Adult literacy however is low, estimated at 45 percent in 2008, below the ECOWAS and African averages, of 49 percent and 66 percent. 3. The prevalence of HIV/AIDS, below 1 percent for adults, is very low. Just 0.3 percent of children are estimated to be orphaned by AIDS, below the ECOWAS average of 1.5 percent. The number of primary and secondary teachers affected by the virus is estimated at less than 200. As such, AIDS has a minor impact on the education system. 22 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) Economic growth is comparatively favorable and inflation is under control, but domestic revenues are low, and the debt burden resulting from high levels of donor support is significant. 4. The Gambia’s economy is relatively undiversified and limited by a small internal market but economic growth is on good track. Between 2004 and 2010, average real GDP has grown at 4.7 percent per year, from D 21.96 billion to D 28.86 billion (in constant 2010 prices). Over 2007-10, annual real GDP growth rose to 6.2 percent, before dropping to 5.6 percent in 2010. However, due to demographic growth, GDP per capita has witnessed slower growth, at an average real rate of just 1.9 percent per year, reaching D 17,549 in 2010. The high real GDP growth rates have been accompanied by relatively large variations in sectoral contributions to growth. Inflation has been below six percent and stable thanks to sound macroeconomic policies. 5. Total domestic revenues accounted for 13.6 percent of GDP in 2010, which was lower than the ECOWAS non-oil-producing countries’ average, of 18 percent. In the same year, public recurrent expenditure represented 13.9 percent of GDP, and development (capital) expenditure represented 8.2 percent of GDP. Development expenditure is mostly supported by donors’ grants and loans, equivalent to five percent of GDP over the last five years (although it was 6.2 percent in 2010). The Gambia still faces a heavy debt burden as a result. Key Macroeconomic Indicators, 2004-10 2004 2007 2009 2010* GDP (Millions of D - In Constant 2010 Prices) 21,955 24,116 27,340 28,858 GDP per Capita (D - In Constant 2010 Prices) 15,705 15,906 17,802 17,549 Real GDP Growth (%) - 6.0 6.7 5.6 Inflation (%) - 5.4 4.6 5.8 External Public Debt (% of GDP) - 41.7 33.6 34.0 Internal Public Debt (% of GDP) - 22.1 19.7 26.9 Source: GBoS, Central Bank of The Gambia, The Gambia Draft Public Expenditure Monitoring Report (World Bank) and authors’ calculations. Note: * Figures for 2010 are estimations. 6. On the scale computed by the World Bank’s Africa Region Education Unit that synthesizes the context the education sector faces, the Gambia ranks 8th in social terms, 22nd in economic terms, whereas the global context index places The Gambia in 12th position out of 47 African countries, above the average.1 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 23 The Gambia is still among the most advanced SSA countries in terms of actual enrollment and completion indicators at Executive Summary all levels but enrollment ratios have stagnated over the last 4 years. 7. Since 2000, enrollment growth has been strongest in senior secondary and higher education, having more than doubled over 2000-09 from 15,554 to 36,141 students in senior secondary and having multiplied by almost four in higher education (from 1,948 to 7,155). Lower basic enrollment has increased steadily, from 223,328 to 303,281 over this period, although average growth has slowed to three percent since 2005. Recent growth has been fuelled mainly by madrassas (14 percent annual average growth), and private schools, particularly in LBE, reaching 17 percent annual growth. ECD has expanded at 9 percent on average per year. Inversely, enrollment in public schools has stagnated in lower basic and increased only slightly in upper basic. The increase in higher education was mainly driven by the recent expansion of teacher training programs. 8. The share of higher education students enrolled in teacher training doubled from 14 percent to 27 percent between 2005/06 and 2009/10, at the expense of engineering, manufacturing and construction courses. Humanities represent a staggering 40 percent of overall higher education enrollment, raising a potential graduate employability issue. 9. At basic and secondary levels the GER is stagnant, enrollment numbers increasing at the same rate as the school-aged population. In 2009/10, the GER was 88 percent in LBE, 66 percent in UBE and 34 percent in senior secondary. The ECD gross enrollment ratio was 36 percent in 2009/10, a tremendous increase, from 25 percent in 2007/08. The higher education enrollment rate increased from 427 students per 100,000 inhabitants in 2005/06 to 447 in 2009/10. Gross Enrollment Ratio, by Level, 2005/06 and 2009/10 Basic Education Senior Higher ECD LBE UBE Total Secondary Education * Age group 3-6 7 - 12 13 - 15 7 - 15 16 - 18 n.a. 2005/06 - 88.1 66.9 81.7 34.2 427 2009/10 36.4 88.2 66.2 81.4 34.5 447 Source: Authors’ calculations based on MoBSE/EMIS enrollment data and GBoS population data. Note: * Because there is not a single age-group of reference for higher education, the enrollment rate is measured by the number of students per 100,000 inhabitants. For all other levels the gross enrollment ratio is used. 24 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 10. The primary completion rate is 75 percent, against the SSA average of 67 percent. However, should transition conditions remain stable, the PCR would be expected to decrease to 70 percent by 2014/15. The primary gross intake rate (Grade 1 access rate) is behind the SSA average, at 94 percent, implying that some children still never have access to school. However UBE and SSE intake and completion rates place The Gambia in 3rd best position out of 24 African countries. Educational Pyramid for The Gambia, 2009/10 Higher : 447 Students / Theoretical 100,000 Inhabitants ages 18 28% SSE 17 GER = 34% 16 36% 63% 15 59% UBE 14 GER = 66% 13 68% 89% 12 75% 11 LBE 10 9 GER = 88% 8 7 94% Source: UNESCO-Pôle de Dakar. Note: * The higher education enrollment rate is measured by the number of students per 100,000 inhabitants because there is no unique duration for higher education. Educational Pyramid for Sub-Saharan Africa, 2007/08 Higher : 525 Students / Theoretical 100,000 Inhabitants ages Secondary 17 15% Upper 16 GER = 22% 15 20% 56% Secondary 14 36% Lower 13 GER = 47% 12 43% 67% 11 64% 10 Primary 9 8 GER = 100% 7 6 96% Source: UNESCO-Pôle de Dakar. The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 25 School survival is still low, and the high dropout rate is mainly due to the fragility of the demand for schooling. Executive Summary 11. The survival profile indicates that out of 100 children who enter Grade 1, only 75 reach Grade 6, and 60 reach Grade 9. This underlines the importance of addressing dropout, which is mainly a demand issue: indeed, only 0.5 percent of students attend incomplete schools (those that do not offer the following grade), which may leave them with no option but to drop out if there is no other school close by. Survival Profile, 2009/10 100 100 80 75 67 Percent 60 60 38 40 26 20 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Grade Source: Authors’ calculations based on MoBSE/EMIS data. 12. Out-of-school children represent 31.6 percent of the group aged 7-15 years, most of whom (29.1 percent) have never attended school. The probability of children being out of school is 5.4 times lower for children whose household head had access to lower basic, 3.8 times lower for the wealthiest children, 2.4 times lower for urban children, and 1.5 times lower if the household head is a woman. The main reasons declared by households for children being out of school are religious (48 percent of cases), the cost (26 percent), and being too young (13 percent). Gambian learning outcomes are strikingly unsatisfactory even in terms of the most basic reading and numeracy skills, and are well below subregional averages. 13. In the Early Grade Reading Assessment (EGRA), the Gambian scores are comparatively very low. As an example, in 2009, 54 percent of assessed Grade 2 students were not able to read a single word, which was still the case for 27 percent of Grade 3 students. Many pupils are therefore not adequately equipped to learn other subjects. However, significant improvements did occur over the 2007-09 period for most tests, thanks to the introduction of innovative pedagogical measures in the interim. G 26 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 14. In the National Assessment Test, few students reached the minimum requirements. Success rates varied between 45.7 percent for Grade 5 social studies, and 19.5 percent for Grade 3 English. In addition to English, the situation is particularly worrying in Grade 5 math and sciences, with average success rates of just 20 percent. Percentage of Grade 3 and Grade 5 Students Achieving the NAT Result Minimum Requirement, by Subject and Gender, 2009/10 Grade 3 Grade 5 English 19.5 English 29.1 Math 26.5 Math 19.6 Social Studies 45.7 Integrated Science 26.5 Sciences 22.2 Source: NAT data file, 2010 15. Results at upper basic and senior secondary levels are scarcely better, and have barely improved since 2002: • At GABECE (the Grade 9 exam for senior secondary admission), 76 percent of candidates failed to obtain a credit in any of the 4 core subjects, and only four percent achieved a credit in all four. Results are poorest in math, with only seven percent of candidates obtaining a credit. • Regarding the WASSCE (end of senior secondary exam), results are improving but they are still far behind other WAEC countries. In math the pass rate is just 3.2 percent, compared with up to 47 percent in other countries. In 2008/09, 50.8 percent failed to obtain a single credit in any of the nine subjects and only 11 percent achieved credits in five or more subjects. Grant-aided and mission schools perform better than public and private schools: 20.2 percent of candidates obtained a credit in at least five subjects in the former against 5.5 percent for public candidates and 9.1 percent of private ones. 2 Distribution of Students According to Credits Obtained in the Four GABECE Core Subjects, 2002/03 to 2008/09 100% 90% Credits in All 4 Subjects Percent 80% Credits in All 3 Subjects Credits in All 2 Subjects 70% Credits in All 1 Subjects No Credit in Any Subject 60% 2002/03 2004/05 2006/07 2008/09 Source: WAEC, 2003-09. Note: A credit includes all scores from A1 to C6. The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 27 16. The main suggested policies to improve student learning achievements aim to influence both the factors negatively impacting on scores (repetition, absenteeism, and Executive Summary class size), and those having a positive impact (the availability of textbooks, which have a positive impact on all subjects’ pass rates and are by far the most cost-effective way to improve results; the electrification of schools; improved teaching practices and increased preschool attendance). Main Suggested Policies to Improve Student Learning Achievements Lower Basic Upper Basic Cost Cost Policies Impact Cost Impact Cost Effectiveness Effectiveness Improve consistency in teacher $ to $$ Low $ to $$ Low postings to ensure PTRs remain * * (1) to medium (1) to medium within targets Increase teaching time to the $ to $$$ Medium *** n.a. n.a. n.a. recommended annual 880 hours (2) to high Ensure repetition is used only as a last resort by setting up remedial *** $ High *** $ High classes Ensure all students have a textbook *** $ High *** $ High in each key subject Favor the use of the child-centered *** $ High n.a. n.a. n.a. teaching approach Encourage the enrollment of children $ to $$ *** High n.a. n.a. n.a. at the preschool level (3) Set up electricity $ to $$$ $ to $$$ *** Low to high *** Low to high in schools (4) (4) Source: Synthesis of Tables 4.4, 4.6 and 4.7. Note: * Low impact, ** medium impact, *** high impact; $ low cost, $$ costly, $$$ very costly. The level of impact has been assessed based on the results obtained from the regressions; the level of cost is based on estimated unit costs. n.a.: policies were not included in the models. Costs may vary according to the type of intervention: (1) costs may be very much inflated whether the incentive packages require the construction of teachers’ quarters or not, or if the recruitment of additional teachers is needed; (2) although improving teacher and student attendance records could reduce absenteeism at a fairly low cost, revising double-shifting practices that severely affect teaching time might be more costly, involving school organization changes (the construction of additional classes, the recruitment of teachers, and so on); (3) Community-based preschool attendance will be much cheaper than enrollment in the regular preschool system; and (4) The cost of the installation of electricity will vary considerably if generators, solar panels or grid electrification are involved. • The inconsistent impact of double-shifting on EGRA and NAT results calls for further analysis of its different modalities. • The use of English as the main teaching language in primary education merits reflection, given that few students adequately master it. The use of local languages at early grades currently being piloted should provide interesting results. 28 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) • Last but not least, regularly assessing learning achievements in primary schools with relevant national and internationally comparable tools will be necessary to obtain better insights into potential education policy leverages. It is worthy of note however, that the MoBSE has undertaken considerable efforts to acquire new learning achievement tools and to update existing ones, enabling the better measurement and tracking of learning outcomes to set up timely remedial interventions. 17. Given the high priority given to religious education in some of the regions with the lowest enrollment rates, especially for girls, it would be an important asset that madrassas offer the official curriculum. Efforts to include madrassa students in all national tests (by first translating the tests into Arabic) should then be prioritized. While gender disparities in education are very slight, the rural population is at a marked disadvantage, and poverty is the most discriminatory factor. 18. Gender disparities are virtually inexistent for lower and upper basic enrollment, although a slight disparity exists as of upper basic completion, carried through to senior secondary, which is completed by only 25 percent of girls, against 32 percent of boys. 19. Disparities by area of residence are more marked, and exist throughout the education system: there are no more rural children in upper basic than urban children, whereas the rural population is 62 percent of the total. 20. Poverty is the most discriminatory factor, and disparities related to wealth increase with each level: only three percent of the poorest quintile complete secondary school, against 38 percent of the wealthiest quintile. 21. Gender and income based disparities are reflected in learning outcomes: At EGRA, boys outperform girls in all test items, achieving a consolidated score of 51.9, against 48.5 for girls; and wealthier students outperform their poorer peers, with consolidated scores of 59.1 and 48.5 respectively. 22. Due to longer studies, the wealthiest students consume eight times more public education resources than the poorest, urban dwellers benefit from three times more resources than their rural counterparts, and boys benefit from 20 percent more public education spending than girls. The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 29 16. The main suggested policies to improve student learning achievements aim to influence both the factors negatively impacting on scores (repetition, absenteeism, and Executive Summary class size), and those having a positive impact (the availability of textbooks, which have a positive impact on all subjects’ pass rates and are by far the most cost-effective way to improve results; the electrification of schools; improved teaching practices and increased preschool attendance). Main Suggested Policies to Improve Student Learning Achievements Lower Basic Upper Basic Cost Cost Policies Impact Cost Impact Cost Effectiveness Effectiveness Improve consistency in teacher $ to $$ Low $ to $$ Low postings to ensure PTRs remain * * (1) to medium (1) to medium within targets Increase teaching time to the $ to $$$ Medium *** n.a. n.a. n.a. recommended annual 880 hours (2) to high Ensure repetition is used only as a last resort by setting up remedial *** $ High *** $ High classes Ensure all students have a textbook *** $ High *** $ High in each key subject Favor the use of the child-centered *** $ High n.a. n.a. n.a. teaching approach Encourage the enrollment of children $ to $$ *** High n.a. n.a. n.a. at the preschool level (3) Set up electricity $ to $$$ $ to $$$ *** Low to high *** Low to high in schools (4) (4) Source: Synthesis of Tables 4.4, 4.6 and 4.7. Note: * Low impact, ** medium impact, *** high impact; $ low cost, $$ costly, $$$ very costly. The level of impact has been assessed based on the results obtained from the regressions; the level of cost is based on estimated unit costs. n.a.: policies were not included in the models. Costs may vary according to the type of intervention: (1) costs may be very much inflated whether the incentive packages require the construction of teachers’ quarters or not, or if the recruitment of additional teachers is needed; (2) although improving teacher and student attendance records could reduce absenteeism at a fairly low cost, revising double-shifting practices that severely affect teaching time might be more costly, involving school organization changes (the construction of additional classes, the recruitment of teachers, and so on); (3) Community-based preschool attendance will be much cheaper than enrollment in the regular preschool system; and (4) The cost of the installation of electricity will vary considerably if generators, solar panels or grid electrification are involved. • The inconsistent impact of double-shifting on EGRA and NAT results calls for further analysis of its different modalities. • The use of English as the main teaching language in primary education merits reflection, given that few students adequately master it. The use of local languages at early grades currently being piloted should provide interesting results. 28 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) Significant variations also exist at the regional and district levels. 24. Regional disparities are important. The further east, the lower the access and completion rates. The situation in Regions 5 and 6 is particularly worrying: the primary completion rates are only 24 percent and 18 percent respectively. Region 6 is furthermore characterized by acute upper basic under enrollment, of just 14 percent. 25. There are also significant enrollment variations among districts: in Region 3, basic enrollment levels vary between 53 percent and 107 percent. These variations reflect a complex mix of supply and demand issues, which should be considered in policy making, providing more teachers and classrooms where supply is insufficient, and sensitizing village heads and religious chiefs and raising incentives where demand is low. Distribution of Out-of-School Children, by Wealth Quintile and Region, 2006 Richest Region 5 8% 22% Poorest 34% Region 4 Fourth 16% 10% Region 6 22% Region 1 12% Middle 20% Region 2 Second Region 3 22% 13% 19% Source: MICS, 2006. 26. Performance in terms of learning achievements also varies considerably by region: Regions 3, 5 and 6 often lag behind other regions in most national examinations and tests. Regarding EGRA scores, Region 1 outperforms all other regions with a consolidated score of 62.4, whereas Regions 4, 5 and 6 tend to lag behind with scores averaging 45.5. The analysis of education supply and demand issues at the district level shows marked differences in the levels of expected enrollment and the level of school supply. 27. The districts that combine below-average supply and a level of enrollment below expectations face both schooling supply and demand issues. This group includes: Falladu The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 31 East, Central Baddibu, Nianija, Falladu West, Upper Saloum, Jarra Central, Kombo North, Upper Baddibu, Jokadu and Niamina East. Executive Summary 28. The districts whose enrollment is below expectations despite education supply being above average specifically face a demand issue. This group includes: Upper Niumi, Sami, North Dankunku, Kiang East, Niani, Lower Saloum, Foni Jarol, Foni Kansala and Foni Bitang Karanai. 29. The districts where enrollment is higher than expected despite supply being below average mainly face supply constraints. This group includes: Kantora, Kanifing Municipal Council, Wulli, Sandu, Jarra East, Jarra West, Foni Bondali, Kombo South and Foni Brefet. It would be appropriate to increase the supply of education in these districts to increase enrollment. 30. The districts that have a higher level of education supply and a level of enrollment in line with or higher than expected face no major issues of supply or demand. This group includes: Banjul, Jangjangbureh, Lower Baddibou, Kiang Central, Kiang West and Niamina West. Supply and Demand Diagnosis, by District, 2009 Jangjangbureh Kerewan Kanifing Mansakoriko Basse Brikama P Supply AND Demand Issues (9) No major Issue (7) Demand Issue (11) Supply Issue (10) Source: Figure 6.6 The distribution of public education resources in The Gambia is still inequitable but is nevertheless among the most equitable in Sub-Saharan Africa, due to the distribution of enrollment and comparatively low differences across levels in terms of unit costs. 31. Thirty percent of public education expenditure 1 (10) the 10 percent most benefits(9) educated (those who study the longest),(12) 7 41 against > percent for the subregion on average, and 69 percent is spent on the 90 percent least educated. 32 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) Share of Public Education Resources Consumed by the 10 Percent Most Educated, Various African Countries, 2009 or LAY 80 73 70 60 Percent 50 40 40 30 30 20 15 10 0 e i e au ia e ria ia n o i r ire ar da i ut al aw ge rd ag Th ni s an n sc Fa M Ivo ss e an o za Be Ve Ni al er Lib ib a rit Bi a, Rw a ag n M d’ Av Dj a- au in e Ta bi p ad e ne rk am M Ca A t Cô Bu M SS ui G G Source: Pole de Dakar. Internal efficiency is comparatively good, and repetition is just half the SSA countries’ average; dropout on the other hand needs to be addressed. 32. The internal efficiency coefficient is good overall, and improves with successive levels. Nevertheless, at the primary level 24.5 percent of resources are wasted on repetition and dropout, and 7.9 student-years are necessary on average to complete the cycle (against an ideal six student-years). Upper basic and senior secondary levels are more efficient still, with wastage of just 17.8 percent and 15.8 percent. The Gambia fares better than other SSA countries at all levels, where the respective internal efficiency coefficients average 68.1 percent at lower basic, 66.3 percent at upper basic and 72.4 percent at senior secondary. Regardless of the level, inefficiencies are mainly due to dropout rather than repetition. Internal Efficiency Coefficients, by Level and Source of Wastage, 2009/10 LBE UBE SSE IEC (%) 75.5 82.2 84.2 Dropout Related 80 85 88 Repetition Related 94 96 96 Years Required to Produce one Graduate 7.9 3.6 3.6 Source: MoBSE/EMIS, 2009/10 and authors’ calculations. The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 33 33. Repetition is just 5.6 percent at lower basic, half the sub-sample of SSA countries’ average of 11 percent. It is similarly low for upper basic at 3.5 percent, Executive Summary and senior secondary at 4.2 percent (the SSA averages are 13 percent and 11.7 percent). Repetition decreases by grade in lower basic (from 10 percent in Grade 1 to two percent in Grade 6) and senior secondary (from five percent in Grade 10 to three percent in Grade 12), but increases with each grade in upper basic (from three percent in Grade 7 to five percent in Grade 9). Percentage of Repeaters, for The Gambia and African Low-Income Countries, by Level, 2009 or LAY Lower Basic Upper Basic Togo 24 Togo 32 Malawi Guinea Guinea-Bissau Burkina Rwanda Niger Guinea Benin Benin Mali Mali Senegal Uganda Guinea-Bissau Sample Average 11 Sample Average 13 Burkina Rwanda Sierra Leone Zambia Senegal Malawi Ghana Sierra Leone Zambia Ghana Gambia, The 6 Gambia, The 4 Niger Uganda Tanzania 2 Tanzania 2 0 5 10 15 20 25 0 10 20 30 40 Percent Percent Source: MoBSE/EMIS, 2009/10 for The Gambia; UNESCO-Pôle de Dakar, 2010 for other countries. Education has a positive net impact on a wide spectrum of social behaviors contributing to human development, the strongest being achieved by the basic level. 34. The net impact of education on human development indicators is notable in The Gambia, as evidenced by the analysis performed on MICS Household Survey data: • Fertility is affected in various dimensions: all other things being equal, the average age at first childbirth rises from 18 years for uneducated women to almost 21 years for S those having attained higher education; the birth interval increases from 35 to 45 months; and the average number of children already born for women aged 15 to 49 years drops from three to 1.8; • Maternal and child health improves with the level of education: compared with uneducated women, women with higher education are 24 percentage points more likely 34 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) to be assisted in childbirth; the probability of having at least one child dying drops from 36 percent to 19 percent; four percent fewer daughters undergo female genital mutilation; and three percent more mothers use tetanus toxoid during pregnancy. The indicators improve by more in urban areas, regardless of the availability of a local health facility; • HIV/AIDS awareness improves, and the probability of being in the 40 percent poorest households drops from 45 percent for the uneducated to just four percent for women with higher education; Simulated Net Impact of Education on Various Social Behaviors, 2006 Highest Grade Attained LBE UBE SSE Higher None 6 9 12 16 Fertility Woman's Age at First Childbirth 20-29 Years 17.8 18.8 19.2 19.7 20.3 40-49 Years 19.5 20.1 20.4 20.7 21.1 15-49 Years 18.3 19.2 19.7 20.2 20.9 Average Birth Interval (Months) 35.5 38.9 40.6 42.3 44.5 Total Number of Live Births (15-49 Years) 3.0 2.6 2.3 2.1 1.8 Maternal and Child Health Use of Tetanus Toxoid during Pregnancy (%) 89.4 92.0 92.9 93.7 94.7 Assistance at Delivery (%) 51.7 61.4 66.0 70.3 75.6 Probability of Child Mortality (at Least One Child) (%) 35.7 28.5 25.1 22.2 18.6 Genital Mutilation of Daughters (%) 67.5 64.9 63.6 62.3 60.4 HIV/AIDS Knowledge Score (/12) 9.4 10.0 10.3 10.6 11.0 Probability of Literacy (%) 0.0 15.5 98.1 100 100 Probability of Being among the 40% Poorest Households (%) 45.4 27.4 21.5 10.8 4.1 Source: Authors’ calculations based on MICS, 2006 data. • The analysis does not show a statistically significant impact of education on some other variables such as anti-malarial treatment, which may indicate that the curricula are not or not sufficiently well designed in this respect to have an impact. 35. The impact of the different education levels is however variable. Upper basic education is the most cost-effective cycle for improving human and social development. One year of UBE accounts for 8.3 percent of the total net impact achieved by the maximum number of years of study (primary education through higher education), whereas one year of LBE, SSE or higher education respectively account for 6.3 percent, 5.7 percent and 6.7 percent. The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 35 36. The lower basic and upper basic levels are the most efficient in achieving social outcomes, with impact indices of 43 and 47, and senior secondary and higher Executive Summary education have indexes of 17 and five, according to a cost-benefit analysis based on unit costs and the number of years of schooling involved in each level. 37. In spite of the proven impact of education in The Gambia, there is still scope for improvement: The Gambia ranks just 28th out of 35 SSA countries in terms of the impact of primary education on human development, which may be related to the comparatively low quality of education. Impact of Primary Education on Human Development, for 36 SSA Countries, 2007 or LAY (Standardized Index) 140 130 120 100 100 76 86 80 60 40 20 0 Madagascar Swaziland DRC Equatorial Guinea Guinea-Bissau Senegal Ganbia, The Gabon Rwanda Sierra Leone Zimbabwe Burundi Malawi Tanzania Niger CAR Togo Uganda Lesotho Ghana Zambia SSA Average Namibia Angola Côte d’Ivoire Ethiopia Guinea Chad Cameroon Burkina Faso Sudan Mali Benin Nigeria Kenya Sao Tomé Mozambique Source: Calculations based on DHS/MICS/CWIQ household surveys including 17 social indicators (World Bank, 2010). The informal and agricultural sectors are particularly predominant in The Gambia; the formal sector needs to improve its capacity of job creation for the growing numbers of tertiary and higher education graduates. 38. The distribution of the work-force by status and sector shows that 88 percent of employed 15 to 59 year-olds work in the informal sector. The younger generation (aged 25 to 34 years) has more difficulty finding work, with an unemployment rate of seven percent, compared with three percent for the older generation (aged 35 to 59 years). The formal sector is slightly more developed (12.5 percent) than in other SSA countries (10 percent on average). Agriculture accounts for 55 percent of informal sector employment, well below the SSA average, of 72 percent. 36 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) Distribution of the Adult Population, by Highest Education Level Attained, The Gambia and SSA Average, 2008/09 / Percent 51.8% 28.8% 10.6% 5.1% 3.6% SSA Average 53.7% 13.2% 20.4% 7.6% 5.1% The Gambia 0 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% No Education LBE UBE SSE TVET and Higher Source: Table 5.2 for he Gambia; World Bank, 2010 for the Sub-Saharan African Average. Note: Due to data comparability issues, higher education is not included, and the total social impact has been redistributed over the primary and secondary levels. 39. In line with the SSA average, half of the Gambian population has not received any education. Comparatively, a much lower proportion (13 percent) have completed only primary (the SSA average is 28 percent), and conversely larger shares have completed basic education (20 percent, against 11 percent), senior secondary (eight percent, against five percent) and TVET and higher education (five percent, against three percent). 40. Education’s relevance to the labor market is unfortunately slight. Only 43 percent of higher education graduates find formal work, and 13 percent are unemployed, twice the national average. Unemployment is below average for the uneducated and those with LBE, probably more willing or constrained to accept low-paid informal jobs, and Gambians with TVET training have the best employment prospects out of 25 African countries (95 percent are employed), although their earnings are lower. Formal Job Insertion Prospects of Adults with Higher Education, 2008/09 100 Age 25-34 Age 35-39 80 73 Percent 60 55 57 45 40 20 0 Guinea Congo Côte d’Ivoire Guinea-Bissau Togo Mali Benin Gambia, The Mauritania Cameroon CAR Sierra Leone Senegal Rwanda Madagascar SSA Avergae Ghana Ethiopia Uganda Zambia Lesotho Burundi Burkina Faso Chad Malawi Mozamique Source: Average of CWIQ, 2008 and PSIA, 2009 for The Gambia; World Bank for the other countries. The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 37 The lack of correspondence between labor supply and demand is reflected in low wages and low rates of return Executive Summary on investment in education, especially for TVET graduates, although they have better employment prospects in absolute terms than many of their African counterparts. 41. Annual average income for the 15 to 39 years age-group increases with each successive level of education attained, from D 8,178 for those with no education, to D 18,354 for those having completed basic education, D 25,646 for senior secondary, and D 31,940 for TVET graduates. Higher education is the level that leads to the largest additional earnings, representing a 101 percent increase on senior secondary graduate earnings, to D 51,555. Gambian earnings are lower on average than those of other African countries for individuals with no education, basic education, technical training, and higher education, again reflecting the low general quality of education, which translates into low labor productivity and earnings. In the case of TVET, the lower earnings range (the lowest of all countries but one) nuances the comparatively good national performance in terms of job insertion. It is likely that TVET graduates have to accept jobs even when the salary proposed is far below their expectations. In the case of individuals with senior secondary education, earnings in The Gambia are similar to the African average. Average Income of the 25 to 34 Years Age-Group, by Level of Education, 2006 or LAY G G 12 Mali Mauritania Benin Average Units of GDP per Capita 10 Burkina Faso Congo Gambia, The 8 6 4.4 4 2.4 2.8 2.7 2 1.8 2.1 1.6 0.9 1.2 1.2 0.5 0.8 0 None LBE UBE SSE TVET Higher Highest Level Attained Source: PSIA, 2009 for The Gambia; CSRs for other countries. L 38 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 42. The private rate of return on investment in education ranges from zero percent for LBE, to 11 percent for higher education. Compared with Congo and Benin (countries for which the same methodology has been applied), The Gambia has lower rates of return in lower basic, similar rates in secondary school and TVET, and markedly higher returns on higher education. This tends to somewhat counter-balance the mismatch observed between labor market needs and the supply of graduates, as the latter still obtain higher returns from their jobs, even in the informal sector. Rates of Return on Education, The Gambia, Benin and Congo, by Level, 2009 The Gambia Benin Congo Percents Private Social Private Social Private Social LBE 0 0 4 3 3 3 UBE 2 2 1 1 3 2 SSE 3 3 9 7 4 2 TVET 2 2 2 2 3 2 Higher 11 7 5 3 4 1 Source: PSIA, 2009 and Chapter 3 (unit costs) for The Gambia; CSRs for other countries. 43. Although the results presented are interesting, the available data did not enable the detailed analysis of how the different areas of university study and types of TVET programme compare in terms of employment and earning prospects for graduates. To provide relevant inputs for education policy-making purposes in this respect, it is imperative that tracer studies of university and TVET graduates be conducted. These will lead to specific recommendations in terms of which areas of study and types of programmes should receive higher subsidies and incentives (for instance through more advantageous student grants) to contribute more significantly to the country’s economic growth through better job insertion and productivity. Although recurrent public education expenditure has increased, it is still below the FTI benchmark and ECOWAS average, and high basic education funding levels are at the expense of senior secondary and higher education. 44. Recurrent public education expenditure has increased from D 148 million to D 549 million over 2001-09, however it still only represents 17.8 percent of total recurrent expenditure, below the FTI benchmark of 20 percent, and the ECOWAS average of 24 percent. Donor financing represented 37 percent of the education budget in 2009, or 1.2 percent of GDP. The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 39 Breakdown of Education Financing, by Type and Source, 2001-09 2001 2007 2009 Executive Summary Level of Education Funding (Million of Dalasis) Recurrent 142.5 341.2 479.7 Development (Capital) 84.2 249.8 416.3 Of which Donor Financing * 78.4 235.1 347.0 Total National Education Expenditure 148.2 355.9 549.0 Total 226.7 591.0 896.6 Recurrent Education Expenditure (Percent) As a Share of Total Government Recurrent Expenditure ** 16.7 19.2 17.8 As a Share of GDP 0.9 1.6 1.8 Donor Financing as a Share of the Total Education Budget 34.6 39.8 38.7 Total Government Expenditure as a Share of GDP 0.9 1.7 2.1 Source: Authors’ calculations based on IFMIS data and PCU - MoBSE. Note: * Donor financing includes recurrent expenditure such as girls’ scholarships, the school feeding program, training, and others. ** Government recurrent expenditure excludes the service of debt. 45. Basic education is allocated the highest share of the budget (lower basic receives 51 percent, and upper basic 23 percent), and senior secondary receives 11 percent, making Gambian spending on basic education six percent higher than the ECOWAS average. This share looks even higher when the high primary completion rate is taken into account, raising the issue of progressively shifting budget priority towards postbasic education to match increasing demand. Indeed, TVET only represents 2.6 percent and higher education is allocated 12 percent, including teacher training. Public funding for ECD is almost nill. Distribution of Public Recurrent Education Expenditure, by Level, 2009 Million of Dalasis % Lower Basic 245 51.0 Upper Basic 111 23.2 Senior Secondary 52 10.8 TVET 13 2.6 Higher Education 58 12.1 Adult Education 1 0.2 Total 480 100.0 Source: Authors’ calculations based on IFMIS data. 40 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) Teachers’ salaries are low, keeping public unit costs below the ECOWAS average. 46. Mainly because teachers’ wages are low, public recurrent unit costs are lower than for neighboring countries: at D 1,886 (12 percent of GDP per capita) for upper basic, public recurrent costs per pupil are 10 percent lower than the ECOWAS average, and at D 3,822 (23 percent of GDP per capita) for senior secondary, they are 22 percent lower. TVET and higher education public recurrent unit costs are respectively 169 percent and 84 percent lower at 16 percent of GDP per capita (D 2,625) and 91 percent of GDP per capita (D 14,913). 47. The average teacher’s monthly salary in lower basic is D 3,400, about 2.5 units of annual GDP per capita, and lower than the FTI benchmark of 3.5. Qualified teachers are paid 1.5 and 1.7 times more than unqualified teachers in lower and upper basic, who earn D 2,343 per month on average. Compared to other countries, Gambian teachers’ salaries are in the lower half of the scale. 48. Spending other than on teachers’ salaries at the lower basic level accounts for 29 percent of total recurrent cost, below the FTI benchmark of 33 percent and the ECOWAS average of 32 percent. Household contributions to education are unreasonably high, in particular in lower basic education, in spite of the free tuition policy. 49. Households contribute significantly to education with total annual spending of D 729 million, equivalent to 2.8 percent of GDP (higher than the African average of 2.1 percent). Despite the free tuition policy for public schools, 46 percent of lower basic education is still funded by households. For upper basic, senior secondary and TVET, the respective contributions are even higher, at 67 percent, 70 percent and 81 percent of the cost. In higher education, the cost is equally shared between the government and households. This global cost-sharing pattern is not pro-poor, as equity would have the government assume a higher share of the costs at lower education levels, that the poor still attend, and households assume the majority of the cost of higher education, where most students are from the wealthiest families. The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 41 U Public-Private Recurrent Cost-Sharing, by Level of Education, 2009 Executive Summary 100% 80% 46 53 Percent 67 70 60% 81 Private 40% Public 54 47 20% 33 30 19 0% LBE UBE SSE TVET Higher Source: Tables 3.2 and 3.7. 50. The distribution of household spending by items shows that school and registration fees account for 43 percent, transport for 14 percent and uniforms for 14 percent. Thanks to the government provision of textbooks, Gambian families spend a lower share of their school budget on the latter (11 percent) than the African average (31 percent), but the share devoted to uniforms and transportation (36 percent) is above the average of 20 percent. Although a high percentage of Gambian teachers are qualified and the student to teacher ratios are in line with the FTI benchmark, teacher allocations across schools are sometimes inconsistent, especially at the senior secondary level, and vary significantly across regions. Government-Funded Teacher Distribution According to Status, Qualification and Gender, by Level, 2009/10 Percent LBS UBS BCS SSS Total Status Qualified Teachers (QTs) 69.8 85.7 67.8 84.2 74.0 Contract-Based Teachers 16.5 8.5 11.2 12.6 13.9 Contract Teachers (CTs) 1.6 1.5 0.5 4.5 1.7 Unqualified Teachers (UQTs) 14.9 7.0 10.7 8.1 12.2 Teacher Trainees (TTs) 13.7 5.8 20.9 3.1 12.1 Qualification Qualified (QTs and CTs) 71.4 87.2 68.3 88.8 75.7 Unqualified (UQTs and TTs) 28.6 12.8 31.7 11.2 24.3 Gender Female 32.8 22.1 17.8 8.6 26.5 Male 67.2 77.9 82.2 91.4 73.5 Source: MoBSE/Teacher head-count, 2009/10 and MoBSE/EMIS, 2009/10. Note: Based on a subsample of 4,454 teachers. 42 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 51. The distribution of teachers shows that 82 percent work in public and grant- aided schools: 74 percent are qualified (QTs); 12 percent are unqualified (UQTs), 12 percent were undergoing training (TTs) and just 1.7 percent were contract teachers (CTs). On average, 26.5 percent are female; although this share decreases with each level, from 33 percent at lower basic to nine percent at senior secondary. U Pupil to Teacher Ratios (PTR), Pupil to Qualified Teacher Ratios (PqTR) and Percentage of those Qualified, by Level, 2009/10 100 75 58.3 80 60 Qualified (%) 89 46.7 Percent 60 45 Unqualified (%) Ratio 37.0 41.3 PTR 38.2 40 32.8 30 71 82 PqTR 20 29 15 18 11 0 0 LBE UBE SSE Source: Authors’ estimation based on MoBSE/EMIS, 2009/10 data and MoBSE/teacher head-count, 2009/10. Note: Qualified teachers include QTs and CTs. The figure includes government and grant-aided schools. 52. The primary level pupil to teacher ratio is comparatively good: at 41 to 1, it is in line with the FTI benchmark of 40 to 1, nine points better than the sub-sample of SSA countries’ average (50 to 1), and better than the national target of 45 to 1. For the secondary cycle (including both UBE and SSE) on the other hand, the PTR of 37 to 1 is above the subregional average, of 33 to 1. 53. Consistency in teacher posting shows significant variations: • Region 1 has the highest PTRs at both lower basic (53 to 1) and upper basic (43 to 1); while Region 5 has the best pupil to qualified teacher ratio (PqTR) at both levels. Significant disparities are also found between districts within regions: in Region 2 for instance, lower basic level PqTRs vary from 50 to 1 to a startling 107 to 1. • At the school level, 87 percent of primary teacher postings are justified by enrollment, which is reasonably efficient. However, consistency decreases at the upper basic (79 percent) and senior secondary (47 percent) levels. Both the lower and upper basic coefficients compare well to the SSA averages of 71 percent and 69 percent. The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 43 Teacher Posting Consistency (R² Coefficient) at the Lower Basic Level, by Public School, 2009/10 Executive Summary 80 70 y=0.0174x + 2.8822 Number of Teachers 60 R2 = 0.869 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 Number of Students Source: Authors’ estimation based on MoBSE/EMIS, 2009/10 data and MoBSE/teacher head-count, 2009/10. • Consistency among regions varies greatly, with 91 percent being explained by enrollment in Region 2, against 58 percent in Region 5, and only 48 percent in Region 6. Gaining some insights into management practices from Region 2 could help the other regions with weaker administrative teacher management. • The issue of the effectiveness of the incentive package is questioned by district level disparities in the deployment of teachers, as districts displaying the highest level of hardship allowance coverage are not always the ones registering the lowest PTRs. This calls for a rigorous evaluation of the incentive package offered to teachers posted in remote areas given that its cost-effectiveness is still not clear. Such an evaluation would greatly help to better understand teacher motivation and allow the revision of the whole incentive package to make it more efficient. 54. Textbook allocation across schools also shows particularly poor consistency in Grades 1 to 4. The pupil to textbook ratios by grade range from 1.3 to 1 to 2.1 to 1 for English, and from 1.3 to 1 to 1.9 to 1 for Math. Grades 1 to 4 are in shortest supply. The management of schools could be greatly improved, both at the administrative level, to achieve economies of scale, and at the pedagogical level, to ensure that school resources are utilized in a results-oriented fashion, improving academic performance. 44 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 55. Economies of scale could be achieved by increasing the size of schools: 300 students is optimal at the lower basic level (unit costs are about D 1,100), yet 71.3 percent of schools are smaller, with unit costs reaching the triple for the smallest althought they enrol only 28 percent of students. At the upper basic level 400 students is optimal, yet 37.5 percent of schools are smaller (accounting however for only 11 percent of students), and unit costs reach D 2,528 for those with just 100 students. This means that instead of creating new small schools, decision makers may prefer to increase the size of existing schools, provided the distance between homes and schools remains reasonably short. Estimated Government - Funded Lower Basic School Unit Costs, by School Size, 2009/10 4,000 Units Costs (Dalasis) 71.3% Optimal 28.7% of 3,000 of schools School Schools Size : 300 2,000 1,000 0 200 400 600 800 1.000 Number of Students Source: Authors’ simulation based on the regression explained in Annex Note 7.2. Note: Unit costs are based on teaching staff wages only. 56. Pedagogical management is clearly below par: there appears to be virtually no relation between a school’s resources and its students’ academic performance. While this does not mean that resources are not important, these findings tend to imply that school resources are not the main determining factor in learning outcomes. They also point to efficiency flaws in the use of resources to achieve good learning outcomes. Indeed, the way resources are been used and managed at school and classroom levels are known to be key determinants in the transformation of education inputs into outcomes. More specifically, aspects related to teachers and head teachers’ attributes (such as teachers’ pedagogical approaches and skills, classroom management practices 2 including the time devoted to instruction, head teachers’ management skills and leadership, the motivation of the whole school staff, and so on) are decisive in this regard. This also raises a supervision/inspection issue. Current interventions (the management programme delivered by the University of The Gambia to head teachers, the Whole School Development Programme and the performance management system) as well as the use of school report cards with comparative data, could enhance results- based management and raise accountability at all levels. The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 45 4 Relationship between Learning Achievements and Unit Costs, 2009 Executive Summary Lower Basic Upper Basic 140 55.0 GABECE Mean Aggregate 120 Grade 5 NAT Score 50.0 100 45.0 80 60 40.0 40 35.0 20 0 30.0 2,000 4,000 2,000 4,000 Unit Cost (Dalasis) Unit Cost (Dalasis) Source: NAT, 2009, WAEC 2009 and MoBSE/EMIS, 2008/09. Note: Unit costs only include teachers’ salaries. 46 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) Notes 1 The comparative context index for all Sub-Saharan African countries is made up of two sub-indices: (i) The economic context sub-index includes current revenue excluding grants as a percentage of GDP, education ODA as percentage of GDP, the percentage of enrollment in private schools, GDP per capita, and GDP growth over the last three years. (ii) The socio-demographic context sub-index includes the demographic pseudo dependency ratio for children aged 5-16 years as percentage of total population, the adult (15 years and above) literacy rate, the HIV/AIDS prevalence rate, for adults aged 15-49 years, the under five mortality rate, the prevalence of malnutrition (height for age) prevalence, and the urban share of the population. See Annex Note 1.2. The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 47 Policy Recommendations Matrix Policy Recommendations Rationale Situation in The Gambia Place higher budget priority on education (especially post-basic education) Budget priority for education is comparatively low: 18% of the public recurrent budget is allocated to education, compared with the ECOWAS average of 24%. Resources are necessary for good education delivery. Spending should increase to handle the surge in demand for school places, in particular at the upper The breakdown by education levels (51% basic level and above. for lower basic, 23% for upper basic, 11% for senior secondary, 3% for TVET and 12% for higher education) shows that the share allocated to the lower basic level is high comparatively to other countries, at the expense of post-basic levels. Strengthen the EMIS to ensure accurate and timely data are produced to The MoBSE/EMIS system is plight with many flaws, ranging from inadequate availability of school data to missing key information such as teacher attrition rates. Planning and effective monitoring require a reliable Data on madrassas are particularly poor. EMIS system able to provide quality and timely information. Data on higher education, TVET, early childhood development and adult and nonformal education remain partial and are often contradictory. To date, no proper EMIS for these subsectors exists. Note: $: no or low cost; $$: moderate cost; $$$: high cost. *: low political cost; **: moderate political cost; ***: high political cost. 48 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) Matrix Financial Policy Proposals and Political Expected Results Costs Increase the overall budget for education to a level closer to that observed in comparable countries. The education system is able to $$$/* develop access and quality at all Allocate the increased resources in priority to levels. upper basic education (in particular for hiring more teachers and decreasing the student to teacher ratio, that is higher than in comparable countries), to TVET and to higher education. adequately inform policy decisions Use technical assistance to build a sustainable EMIS with timely data. A quality EMIS is implemented $/* to inform policies in a timely fashion and monitor progress. Develop EMIS systems for higher education, TVET, early childhood development and adult and nonformal education subsectors. The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 49 Policy Recommendations Matrix Rationale Situation in The Gambia Reduce dropout within the primary cycle Of 100 children who enter the lower basic cycle, only 75 reach Grade 6 and only 60 reach Grade 9. Despite the policy of primary fee-free schooling, almost half the recurrent cost of primary education is funded by households due to parallel fees and transportation and uniform costs, considered to be a contributing factor. Dropout handicaps the attainment of universal primary completion and leads to public resources’ wastage. The extent of the issue varies considerably from one district to another. Note: $: no or low cost; $$: moderate cost; $$$: high cost. *: low political cost; **: moderate political cost; ***: high political cost. 50 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) Financial Policy Proposals and Political Expected Results Costs Reduce the indirect and direct costs of schooling borne by the poorest households. Policy actions have already been taken to $$$/* address this issue. Evaluating their impact and cost-effectiveness will be important. Tailor policy interventions to the main reasons for non-attendance identified in each district: • Provide more qualified teachers and classrooms where supply is insufficient. The districts with high demand but low supply Dropout is decreased and the include Kantora, Kanifing Municipal Council, primary completion rate Wulli, Sandu, Jarra East, Jarra West, Foni improved. Bondali, Kombo South and Foni Brefet; • Sensitize village heads and religious chiefs, raise incentives, and reduce costs where $$/* demand is low. The districts with low demand in spite of high supply include: Upper Niumi, Sami, North Dankunku, Kiang East, Niani, Lower Saloum, Foni Jarol, Foni Kansala and Foni Bitang Karanai; • Implement the two kinds of policy interventions in the districts that combine low supply and demand: Falladu East, Central Baddibu, Nianija, Falladu West, Upper Saloum, Jarra Central, Kombo North, Upper Baddibu, Jokadu and Niamina East. The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 51 Policy Recommendations Matrix Rationale Situation in The Gambia Improve the quality of education, especially for early grades Currently, teaching time is below the established 880 hours per year norm, Teaching time is known to be a key factor of learning mainly due to student absenteeism, school outcomes. practices (double-shifting), school closures, and to a lesser extent to teacher absenteeism. Primary level learning outcomes are generally poor. Most students in early grades do not have adequate literacy levels Regularly assessing learning achievements with to properly engage in further studies. As a relevant tools helps to design appropriate policies result learning outcomes remain poor on quality. throughout later cycles. Girls tend to perform less well than boys. Note: $: no or low cost; $$: moderate cost; $$$: high cost. *: low political cost; **: moderate political cost; ***: high political cost. 52 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) Financial Policy Proposals and Political Expected Results Costs Strengthen measures to better respect official teaching time: • Improve teacher and student attendance records to reduce absenteeism; Quality is improved as well as $/* • Increase the community role in school school level accountability. management through the use of school report cards; • Evaluate the practice of double-shifting and how it affects teaching time. • Set early grade literacy benchmarks to allow teachers and parents to adequately monitor pupils’ achievements and weaknesses, set up timely remedial measures and track progress; • Improve the current NAT design by including pre- and post-tests, or by using state-of-the art evaluation methodologies to allow for deeper analysis to help design adequate policies; • Join one of the regional standardized Quality is improved as well as $$/* assessments (the PASEC or the SACMEQ), to accountability. help position The Gambia with respect to other countries; • Prioritize efforts to include madrassa students in all national tests by translating tests into Arabic, given the increasing role played by madrassas in national schooling; • Evaluate the pilot on the use of local languages at early grades and/or strengthen the current teaching practices in English. The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 53 Policy Recommendations Matrix Rationale Situation in The Gambia Ensure the adequate allocation of education inputs at the school level Textbooks are currently in short supply, Textbook provision is considered to be the most cost- especially at early grades. Their allocation effective measure to improve quality. New evidence is also inconsistent, although the recent suggests that ideally each child should have a book for provision of textbooks should improve the each core subject. situation. The adequate supply of teaching materials contribute to enhance teaching quality. Promote the development of a comprehensive teacher development policy There is no teacher development policy per se, although various schemes exist offering training and upgrading opportunities. Teachers are a central element of a quality education Current career prospects tend to favor the system. Ensuring they have access to an array of most qualified teaching staff’s transition opportunities that allow them to grow professionally from primary to postprimary levels and to and personally will provide a stable and strong base on administrative positions, depleting the which to build. lower basic level of its most skilled labor. Ensuring teachers are posted where they are most Approximately 29% of primary teachers needed is also essential for equity (equal provision of are still not qualified, although the learning conditions) and efficiency (efficient use of situation is to improve with the roll-out of teachers) reasons. the PTC extension programme. However, a 2009 teacher assessment highlighted the low content knowledge of a considerable number of primary teachers, including the qualified. Note: $: no or low cost; $$: moderate cost; $$$: high cost. *: low political cost; **: moderate political cost; ***: high political cost. 54 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) Financial Policy Proposals and Political Expected Results Costs Ensure each student has a textbook in each key subject by setting up an efficient textbook $/* provision mechanism, covering the adequate estimation of needs and the supply to schools. Quality is improved. Ensure that teachers have adequate teaching materials and receive related practical training $$/* to know how to adequately use them to maximize benefits. Develop sound and comprehensive teacher policies that pay specific attention to teachers’ professional development and career management, to meet the need for more qualified teachers as the education system expands. The teaching force is qualified, Further analyze and consider: stable and motivated. • Providing continuous learning opportunities to strengthen teachers’ content knowledge $$/* Consistency in teacher and teaching and class practices; allocation is improved and equity in learning conditions • Revising pre-service and in-service training is enhanced. programmes according to teachers’ pedagogical and academic skill needs, focusing on teachers’ main flaws and the $$/* core practical competencies and techniques to be mastered, such as child-centered teaching approaches; The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 55 Policy Recommendations Matrix Rationale Situation in The Gambia Promote the development of a comprehensive teacher development policy - Up to 18% of upper basic teachers and 11% of senior secondary teachers are not qualified. At senior secondary, three- quarters of teachers are foreigners. Yet teacher trainees are among the weakest WASSCE graduates and many fall short of teacher trainees programmes’ entry requirements. Science and math teachers are in short supply. With a PTR of 41:1 in lower basic schools, The Gambia is in-line with the FTI benchmark of 40:1. Secondary PTRs are higher than in other countries (37:1 against 33:1). However, wide disparities in teacher postings are observed across regions and districts. Consistency in primary teacher postings is also particularly poor in Regions 5 and 6. Improve the relevance of the education and training system to the labor market Education’s relevance to the labor market is slight. Only 43% of higher education graduates find formal work, and 13% are unemployed, twice the national average. TVET graduates’ average earnings are Efficient TVET and higher education systems produce lower than those of other African graduates that easily find employment at reasonable countries. wages. Available data do not enable the detailed analysis of how the different areas of university study and TVET programme types compare in terms of graduates’ employment and earning prospects. Note: $: no or low cost; $$: moderate cost; $$$: high cost. *: low political cost; **: moderate political cost; ***: high political cost. 56 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) Financial Policy Proposals and Political Expected Results Costs continued • Offering promotions that encourage staff to continue to teach at their level, adequately $$$/*** assessing and planning the provision of effective incentives, such as training, salaries and career advancement prospects. Regularly monitor teachers’ attrition and its $/* causes to help assess teachers’ motivation and turnover and better anticipate teacher needs. Gain insight into management practices in Region 2 (the region with the highest consistency in teacher posting - 91%) to help other regions with weaker administrative teacher management. Conduct tracer studies of university and TVET graduates. These will lead to specific recommendations in terms of which areas of study and types of programmes should receive The external efficiency of the higher subsidies and incentives (for instance $/* education system is improved. through more advantageous student grants) to contribute more significantly to the country’s economic growth through better job insertion and productivity. The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 57 CHAP CHAPTER 1 TER 1 DEMOGRAPHIC, SOCIAL AND MACROECONOMIC CONTEXTS 58 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) CHAPTER 1 DEMOGRAPHIC, SOCIAL AND MACROECONOMIC CONTEXTS This chapter offers a discussion of the demographic, social and macroeconomic contexts affecting the education sector in The Gambia. It is divided into two parts: (i) demographic trends, with a particular focus on the school-aged population, and the social development context; and (ii) the macroeconomic environment. The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 59 KEY FINDINGS 1. Demographic pressure on the education system will decrease in the future. The proportion of the basic school-aged population (7-15) in the total population is expected to drop from 23.2% in 2010 to 22.8% in 2020, but numbers will increase from 382,000 to 490,000. Therefore, achieving basic education (9 years of schooling) by 2020 will require increasing the system’s capacity by 70%. CHAPTER 1 2. Social development indicators are still low, but improving. Poverty has dropped marginally, from 58.0% in 2003 to 55.5% in 2008. Under-five mortality has dropped from 135 per 1,000 live births in 1993 to less than 100 in 2010. The malaria mortality rate is 106 per 100,000 inhabitants. Adult literacy however is low, estimated at 45% in 2008, below the ECOWAS and African averages, of 49% and 66%. 3. The prevalence of HIV/AIDS, below 1% for adults, is very low. Just 0.3% of children DEMOGRAPHIC, SOCIAL AND MACROECONOMIC CONTEXTS are estimated to be orphaned by AIDS, well below the ECOWAS average of 1.5%. The number of primary and secondary teachers affected by the virus is estimated at less than 200. As such, AIDS has a minor impact on the education system. 4. The Gambia’s economy is relatively undiversified and limited by a small internal market. During the last five years, services (mainly external trade and tourism) have accounted for 56 % of GDP on average. 5. Most employment is in the informal sector, accounting for 87% of those aged 15 to 59 years; formal jobs represent only 13 % of employment. 6. Economic growth is on good track. Since 2004, average real GDP has grown at 4.7% per year, from D 21.96 billion to D 28.86 billion (in constant 2010 prices). Growth rose to 6.2% over 2007-10 before dropping to 5.6 % in 2010. However, GDP per capita has witnessed slower growth, at an average real rate of just 1.9% per year, reaching D17,549 in 2010. The high real GDP growth rates have been accompanied by relatively large variations in sectoral contributions to growth. Inflation has been below 6% and stable thanks to sound macroeconomic policies. 7. Total domestic revenues accounted for 13.6% of GDP in 2010, which is lower than the ECOWAS non-oil-producing countries average of 18%. Public recurrent expenditure represents 13.9% of GDP, and capital expenditure represents 8.2%. Capital expenditure is mostly supported by donors’ grants and loans, equivalent to 5% of GDP over the last five years (although 6.2% in 2010). The Gambia still faces a heavy debt burden as a result. 8. On the scale computed by the World Bank’s Africa Region Education Unit that synthesizes the context the education sector faces, the Gambia ranks 8th in social terms, 22nd in economic terms, whereas the global context index places The Gambia in 12th position out of 47 African countries, well above the average. The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 60 T he Gambia is a country located in West Africa, the smallest on mainland Africa. It is bordered to the north, east and south by Senegal. The Gambia’s land area is 10,690 km², distributed either side of the course of the river of the same name, that flows to the Atlantic Coast. The population was estimated at 1.64 million in 2010. The political geography is divided into 8 local government areas and 38 districts, which are superposed by six education and health regions. The Gambia ranks 151st out of 169 countries in the United Nation’s 2010 Human Development Index.2 In 2010, the country’s GDP per capita was estimated at D 17,549 (about US$ 640). The capital, Banjul, is located on the south bank of the river near the estuary. The national currency is the Gambian dalasi, whose exchange rate with the U.S. dollar fluctuated around the D 27.56 mark in 2010. Demography and Social Development Indicators The country has conducted five demographic censuses, in 1963, 1973, 1983, 1993 and 2003, showing a steady increase in the population over the past three decades. The 1983 population of 688 thousand had risen to over 1 million in 1993 and to 1.36 million in 2003. Over the 2003-10 period, the population grew at an average annual rate of 2.7 percent, reaching 1.64 million in 2010. Women represent a very slight majority (51 percent in 2010) of a very young population (about 65 percent of the population was under 25 years in 2010). Population Density and Urbanization Rate In line with population growth, The Gambia’s population density has of course increased over the same period for which data exist, from 64 people per square kilometer in 1983, to 97 in 1993 and 127 in 2003, one of the highest density rates in the subregion. Region 1 has the highest density at over 4,272 people per square kilometer in the Kanifing district, followed by the district of Banjul and Region 2. Region 4 has the lowest population density, at 45 people per square kilometer. The Gambia has one of the fastest growing urban populations in Africa. The proportion of the population living in urban areas increased from 22 percent in 1973 to 30.8 percent in 1983, 37.1 in 1993, 41 percent in 2003 and reached 58.2 percent in 2010 (HDR, 2010). This proportion is much higher than both the Sub-Saharan African and Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) averages, of 40 percent and 42 percent respectively. Rapid urbanization in The Gambia can be attributed to the weak performance of the agriculture sector over the years, leading to reductions in rural income and the migration of the rural workforce to urban areas in search of work. School-aged Population Table 1.1 shows the evolution of The Gambia’s school-aged population from 1993 to 2020, by age groups corresponding to the official ages of preschool, lower basic, upper basic, and The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 61 senior secondary education levels. The data for 2010 and 2020 are based on the authors’ estimations. 3 In 2003, the basic school-aged population (7-15 years) accounted for 23.6 percent of the total population. According to our estimations, in 2010 this proportion had declined to 23.2 percent and will account for only 22.8 percent of the total population by 2020. This reduction means that in the coming years the demographic pressure on the school system will be slighter than in the past. CHAPTER 1 Given the expected evolution of the demand for education, and considering a percentage of repeaters of five percent, the achievement of universal basic education (9 years of schooling) will require the enrollment of about 515,000 students in 2020 (against 303,000 in 2010), representing an increase in the system’s capacity of 70 percent over this period. Table 1.1: The Evolution of the School-Aged Population, by Age Group, 1993-2020 Number of Individuals, and Percent DEMOGRAPHIC, SOCIAL AND MACROECONOMIC CONTEXTS 1993 2003 2010 2020 (Census) (Census) (Census) (Projection) Total % Total % Total % Total % Total Population 1,038,145 100% 1,360,681 100% 1,644,391 100% 2,155,279 100% 3-6 Years 150,862 15% 178,322 13% 201,027 12% 238,593 11% 7-12 Years 170,522 16% 224,770 17% 264,276 16% 333,199 15% 13-15 Years 71,632 7% 95,876 7% 117,552 7% 157,300 7% 16-18 Years 64,734 6% 86,319 6% 108,272 7% 149,662 7% Subtotal 457,750 44% 585,287 43% 691,127 42% 878,754 41% Source: GBoS for 1993 and 2003, and authors’ estimations for 2010 and 2020. Adult Literacy Based on the 2003 Census, the overall literacy rate in The Gambia for the adult population (over 15 years) is estimated at 42.5%: 30.6% for women and 55.1% for men. In 2008, the adult literacy rate was estimated at 45 percent by the UNESCO Institute of Statistics, lower than the ECOWAS and African countries’ averages, of 49 percent and 66 percent respectively. Poverty and Inequality The overall poverty rate, in this instance defined by the proportion of the population living below US$ 1 a day, was 69 percent in 1998. Poverty dropped to 58 percent in 2003 (IHS, 2003) and in 2008 was estimated at 55.5 percent by the poverty assessment exercise jointly conducted by the World Bank, Gambia Bureau of Statistics (GBoS) and the Department of State for Agriculture, indicating a progressive decline.4 The country’s Gini coefficient is estimated at 0.48 (UNDP, 2010), showing the unequal distribution of national income 62 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) among the population.5 The ECOWAS Gini coefficient average is 0.43, indicating that income distribution in The Gambia is more unequal than is generally noted in countries of the subregion. Malnutrition The Gambia Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey III (2005/06) provided estimates for three nutritional indicators for children, namely height–for–age, weight–for–height and weight– for–age. The results show that the proportion of underweight children has been constant since 1996. In 2005, 20.3 percent of children were underweight, compared with 20.9 percent in 1996. Table 1.2: Prevalence of Malnutrition in Children under Five Years, by Area of Residence and Gender, 1996 and 2005 Percentage of Underweight Children 1996 2005 Area of Residence Urban 15.7 14.7 Rural 22.1 23.4 Gender Male - 20.5 Female - 20.1 National Average 20.9 20.3 Source: MICS I and MICS III. Not only are there are more underweight children in rural areas than in urban areas, but the disparity appears to increase with time. The higher prevalence of malnutrition in rural areas could be attributed to the fact that urban areas have access to a greater availability and diversity of foods than rural areas, reflecting the geographical distribution of poverty. The prevalence of malnutrition varies only slightly in terms of gender; in 2005, 20.5 percent of boys were underweight, against 20.1 percent of girls. Child Mortality Over the past three decades, The Gambia has had one of the highest child mortality rates in the subregion due to low immunization coverage, inadequate access to health services, safe water and sanitation and poor nutrition. Major progress has however been made in improving access to health services over the period, particularly in the areas of maternal, newborn and child health. There have been marked improvements in infant and child mortality between 1993 and 2003. Under-five mortality has dropped by a quarter, and infant mortality has also dropped, by 10 percent over the period (See Table 1.3). Although The Gambia has made significant The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 63 progress over the years in reducing both under-five and infant mortality, the country is still far from reaching the respective MDG targets of 43 per 1000 and 28 per 1000 by 2015 (MDG Needs Assessment for poverty reduction in The Gambia, 2006). Table 1.3: Under-Five and Infant Mortality Rates, 1993 and 2003 Number of Deaths per 1,000 Live Births 1993 2003 Under-Five Mortality 135 99 Infant Mortality 84 75 CHAPTER 1 Source: Censuses 1993, 2003. Malaria Malaria still poses a public health problem in The Gambia. Data from the National Malaria Control Program show that malaria accounts for over 40 percent of hospital visits and is DEMOGRAPHIC, SOCIAL AND MACROECONOMIC CONTEXTS one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality. The majority of malaria cases occur from September to October during the rainy season. Infection during this period is intense; the number of cases registered at the peak of the season may represent a twenty fold increase on those registered in the middle of the dry season. According to the World Health Organization, the malaria mortality rate in The Gambia in 2007 was 106 per 100,000 inhabitants. HIV/AIDS The most comprehensive data on the prevalence of HIV/AIDS in The Gambia are obtained from sentinel surveillance surveys. For these surveys blood samples for HIV tests are taken from pregnant women during prenatal clinic visits. The HIV-1 prevalence rate among pregnant women aged 15 to 49 years increased from 0.6 percent in 1993 to 2.1 percent in 2004 and then declined to 1.4 percent in 2007 (See Table 1.4). The HIV-2 prevalence rate was 1.1 percent in 1993 and declined to 0.5 percent in 2007. UNAIDS estimated the global adult (the population aged 15 to 49 years) HIV/AIDS prevalence rate to be 0.9 percent in 2007, the same value as in 2001, and lower than the 2.8 percent ECOWAS average.7 Table 1.4: Adult HIV/AIDS Prevalence Rate, 2007 Percent 2001 2004 2007 Adult Prevalence Rate 0.8 0.9 0.9 HIV-1 Prevalence Among Pregnant Women 1.3 2.1 1.4 HIV-2 Prevalence Among Pregnant Women 0.9 0.8 0.5 Source: Sentinel Surveillance data, The Gambia Behavioral Survey, 2003, MICS III and UNAIDS. Note: Adults include the population aged 15 to 49 years. 64 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) HIV/AIDS can have multiple and negative impacts on education. It affects demand, supply, and the quality and management of education. Given the low HIV prevalence in The Gambia, its impact on the education system is light. An estimated 2,800 children (aged 0- 17 years) had been orphaned by AIDS in 2009, representing just 0.3 percent of this age group, well below the ECOWAS average of 1.5 percent. If we assume that teachers are affected by HIV/AIDS in the same proportion as adults in general, the total number of teachers affected by the disease (including both primary and secondary teachers) would be less than 200 (out of almost 8,000 teachers). Composite Social Context Index The World Bank’s Africa Region Education Unit annually updates an aggregate social context index that takes demographic dependency, malnutrition, child mortality, HIV/AIDS prevalence, adult literacy and urbanization into account.8 The index is adjusted to obtain an average of 50 and a standard deviation of 10. On that scale, with an index of 50.6 The Gambia is ranked as an average African country in social terms (22nd out of 47 African countries). Macroeconomic Context Economic Growth The Gambia’s economy is relatively undiversified and limited by a small internal market. During the last five years, services have accounted for 56 percent of GDP on average, reflecting the importance of external trade and tourism. Tourism is a key driver of the economy and the country’s most significant foreign exchange earner, followed by groundnut production. Agriculture accounts for 23 percent of GDP on average. GDP growth rates have been accompanied by relatively large variations in the sectoral contributions to growth. For instance, agriculture rose by 14.5 percent to account for almost two-thirds of real GDP growth in 2010, recovering from large drops earlier in the decade. Industrial activity has also seen considerable swings in growth rates, rising by 12.7 percent, contributing to almost one third of growth in 2010. Meanwhile, the service sector, which continues to account for the bulk of the economy (around 55 percent of output), has had a mixed performance over the last few years, contributing only five percent to last year’s real GDP growth, reflecting the decline in tourism (down 35.7 percent) and the offsetting expansion in transport and communications services (up 12.1 percent). Most employment is in informal (87 percent of those aged 15 to 59 years) and formal jobs represent only 13 percent of employment. Agriculture is slightly predominant among The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 65 informal jobs: the agricultural informal sector employs 48 percent of this age-group, against 39 percent for the non-agriculture informal sector (see Chapter 5 for details). Since 2004 the country has registered relatively high GDP growth, at an average annual rate of 8.8 percent in nominal terms.9 In real terms, GDP growth is estimated at just 4.7 percent per year on average over the same period, standing at above six percent since 2007 before falling to 5.6 percent in 2010 (See Table 1.5). Inflation was high before 2004 (19 percent on average between 2001 and 2004), but the rate has since dropped to lower and stable values. At below six percent since 2005, it appears to be more controlled. Sound CHAPTER 1 macroeconomic policies have contributed to this GDP growth and low inflation. Table 1.5: Key Macroeconomic Indicators, 2004-10 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010* GDP (Millions of D) At Market Prices 17,381 18,175 18,723 20,720 23,011 26,184 28,858 DEMOGRAPHIC, SOCIAL AND MACROECONOMIC CONTEXTS At Constant 2010 Prices 21,955 22,011 22,749 24,116 25,632 27,340 28,858 GDP per Capita (D) At Market Prices 12,433 12,654 12,687 13,666 14,722 16,360 17,549 At Constant 2010 Prices 15,705 15,325 15,416 15,906 16,454 17,082 17,549 GDP Growth (%) Nominal - 4.6 3.0 10.7 11.1 13.8 10.2 Real - 0.3 3.4 6.0 6.3 6.7 5.6 Exchange Rate (D to US$ 1) 30.0 28.5 28.1 24.6 22.4 26.6 27.6 Inflation (%) 14.3 5.0 2.1 5.4 4.5 4.6 5.8 GDP Deflator** 79 83 82 86 90 96 100 External Public Debt (% of GDP) - - 133.0 41.7 48.2 33.6 34.0 Internal Public Debt (% of GDP) - - 32.0 22.1 19.9 19.7 26.9 Total Population (Thousands) 1,398 1,436 1,476 1,516 1,558 1,600 1,644 Source: GBoS, Central Bank of The Gambia, The Gambia Draft Public Expenditure Monitoring Report (World Bank) and authors’ calculations. Note: * Figures for 2010 are estimates. ** Base year is 2010; with price normalized to 100. Between 2004 and 2010, GDP per capita increased at an annual average rate of 5.9 percent in current prices, from D 12,433 to D 17,549. In constant 2010 prices the average annual increase represented just 1.9 percent (See Figure 1.1). 66 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 4 Figure 1.1: GDP per Capita Growth, in Current and 2010 Constant Prices, 2004-10 Dalasis 18,000 16,000 Dalasis 14,000 12,000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Current Prices 2010 Constant Prices Source: Table 1.5. Economic Policy The Gambia reached the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries Initiative completion point in December 2007, at which time the country received extensive debt relief, including under the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative. The recent crisis is adversely affecting the inflow of tourism income and remittances. The decline in tourism inflows is detracting from the gain already achieved with the HIPC/MDRI at the end of 2007. Between 2007 and 2010, the national debt represented 61.5 percent of GDP on average (39.4 percent external debt, and 22.2 percent internal debt). The global strategic vision is to: (i) support macroeconomic stability by sustaining the level of public debt through a number of measures including minimizing the cost of borrowing, risk assessment and mitigation; and (ii) reduce the long- term dependence on external financing, by increasing domestic revenues, savings and investment and the development of capital markets. Government Revenues and Expenditures Government revenues including grants have shown a cyclical trend between 2004 and 2010, and decreased slightly over this period from 17.7 percent of GDP in 2004 to 17.2 percent in 2010. On the other hand, domestic revenues excluding grants grew steadily between 2004 and 2007 (from 14.5 percent of GDP to 16.9 percent) before experiencing a decline in 2008. In 2010 domestic revenues excluding grants represented 13.6 percent of GDP, below the ECOWAS average estimated at 19.8 percent of GDP. External grants steadily declined between 2004 and 2007 from 3.1 percent of GDP to 0.9 percent of GDP, before rising to 3.5 percent of GDP in 2009 and dropping to 3.7 in 2010. As a result, expenditures have been fluctuating. From 21.5 percent of GDP in 2004, government expenditures and net lending increased to 22.3 percent in 2006, and then The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 67 declined to 17.7 percent in 2007, before again increasing to 22.8 percent in 2010. The share of recurrent expenditure has been more or less constant, and significant, fluctuating between 12 percent and 14 percent of GDP. Despite the 2007 debt relief, debt interest (particularly that of domestic debt) continues to represent a high proportion of recurrent public expenditure, averaging 23 percent between 2007 and 2010. Development expenditure is mostly supported by foreign contributions, through grants and loans. The total amount of foreign funding has represented 5 percent of GDP over the last five years (an average of 76 percent of public capital expenditure over the last five years). CHAPTER 1 Although the fiscal deficit (excluding grants) was successfully reduced from 7 percent of GDP in 2004 to just 0.8 percent in 2007 thanks to the debt relief package, it again increased to 9.2 percent of GDP in 2010. Table 1.6: Total Government Revenue, Expenditure and Deficit, 2004-10 Percent of GDP 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010* DEMOGRAPHIC, SOCIAL AND MACROECONOMIC CONTEXTS Revenue and Grants 17.7 15.6 17.1 17.8 16.2 18.7 17.2 Domestic Revenue 14.5 14.4 16.2 16.9 15.2 14.9 13.6 Grants 3.1 1.2 1.0 0.9 1.0 3.9 3.7 Budget Support - - 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.2 0.0 Project Grants - - 0.9 0.8 0.7 2.7 3.7 Government Expenditure and Net Lending 21.5 21.8 22.3 17.7 18.0 21.7 22.8 Recurrent Expenditure 11.7 13.3 13.7 12.6 13.9 13.8 13.9 Interest 5.0 6.2 4.9 3.9 3.1 2.8 2.6 External 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 0.6 0.6 0.5 Domestic 3.7 4.9 3.7 2.8 2.5 2.2 2.2 Development Expenditure 9.2 8.0 8.4 4.7 3.7 7.3 8.2 External 8.7 7.4 7.9 3.8 2.2 5.1 6.2 Loans 6.4 6.2 7.0 2.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 Grants 2.3 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 Domestic 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.9 1.5 2.2 2.1 Net Lending 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 Deficit -3.9 -6.2 -5.2 0.1 -1.8 -3.0 -5.6 Excluding Grants -7.0 -7.4 -6.1 -0.8 -2.8 -6.8 -9.2 Source: The Gambia Draft Public Expenditure Monitoring Report (World Bank) and IMF staff estimates. Note: * Figures for 2010 are estimates. 68 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) Composite Economic Context Index The World Bank’s Africa Region Education Unit annually computes and updates an aggregate economic context index that takes GDP per capita, domestic resources as a percentage of GDP, GDP growth, external aid for education and the percentage of students enrolled in private education into account.10 The index is adjusted to obtain an average of 50 and a standard deviation of 10.11 On that scale, The Gambia, with an index of 49.0, is close to the African average and ranked 21st out of 47 African countries in terms of economic context. Composite Global Context Index A composite global context index has also been computed by combining the social and economic context indexes. This index is also adjusted to obtain an average value of 50 and a standard deviation of 10. On this global context index, with a value of 50.1 The Gambia ranks very close to the average with the 17th best global development environment of 47 African countries.12 Notes 2. Human Development Report, 2010. 3. See Annex Note 1.1 for further details on the estimation method. 4. The assessment was a simulation based on the 2003 Integrated Household Survey poverty profile that incorporated the impacts of growth, remittances and internal migration. 5. The Gini coefficient measures the deviation of the distribution of income (or consumption) among individuals or households from a perfectly equal distribution. A value of 0 represents total equality, and a value of 1 represents maximal inequality. 6. The human development indexes, poverty lines, and Gini coefficients for all ECOWAS countries are presented in Annex Table 1.1. 7. See Annex Table 1.2 for the HIV/AIDS prevalence rates and the number of children orphaned by AIDS for all ECOWAS countries. 8. See Annex Note 1.2 for an explanation of the calculation methodology. 9. A new basis for the calculation of GDP was introduced in 2004, making earlier data incomparable. 10 The percentage of students enrolled in private education is included in the economic context index because the more children that go to private schools the less the government has to pay to enroll students in government schools. 11. See Annex Note 1.2 for an explanation of the calculation methodology. 12. The values for all ECOWAS country indexes are presented in Annex Table 1.3. The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 69 CHAP CHAPTER 2 TER 2 ENROLLMENT PATTERNS Photo : © Alpha Bah 70 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) CHAPTER 2 ENROLLMENT PATTERNS This chapter provides a sectorwide overview of enrollment trends, schooling coverage, schooling and survival profiles and school life expectancy, and presents an analysis of supply and demand, examining the causes of dropout and non attendance. The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 71 KEY FINDINGS 1. Since 2000, enrollment growth has been strongest in senior secondary and higher education, having more than doubled over the 2000-09 period, from 15,554 to 36,141 students in senior secondary and having been multiplied by a factor of almost four in higher education (from 1,948 to 7,155). The increase in higher education has mainly been driven by the recent expansion of teacher training programs. The share of higher education students enrolled in teacher training has almost doubled, from 14% in 2005/06 to 27% in 2009/10, at the expense of engineering, manufacturing and construction. CHAPTER 2 2. Lower basic enrollment has increased steadily, from 223,328 to 303,281 over this period, although average growth has slowed to 3% since 2005. Recent growth has been fuelled mainly by madrassas (14% average annual growth), and private schools, particularly in LBE, reaching 17% annual growth, and ECD has expanded by 9% on average per year. Inversely, enrollment in public schools has stagnated in lower basic and increased only slightly in upper basic. ENROLLMENT PATTERNS 3. At basic and secondary levels the GER is stagnant, enrollment numbers increasing at the same rate as the school-aged population. In 2009/10, the GER was 88% in LBE, 66% in UBE and 35% in senior secondary. The ECD gross enrollment ratio was 36% in 2009/10, a tremendous increase, from 25% in 2007/08. Higher education enrollment increased from 427 students per 100,000 inhabitants in 2005/06 to 447 in 2009/10. 4. The primary completion rate is 75%, against 67% for the SSA average. The primary gross intake rate (Grade 1 access rate) is behind the SSA average, at 94%, implying that some children still never have access to school. However UBE and SSE intake and completion rates place The Gambia in 3rd best position out of 24 African countries. 5. The survival profile indicates that out of 100 children who enter Grade 1, 75 reach Grade 6, and 60 reach Grade 9. If the 2008/09 survival rates hold, primary completion will drop to 70% by 2014. This underlines the importance of addressing dropout, which is mainly a demand issue: indeed, only 0.5% of students attend incomplete schools (those that do not offer the following grade), which may leave them with no option but to drop out if there is no other school close by. 6. Out-of-school children represent 31.6% of the group aged 7-15 years, most of whom (29.1%) have never attended school. The probability of children being out of school is 5.4 times lower for children whose household head had access to lower basic, 3.8 times lower for the wealthiest children, 2.4 times lower for urban children, and 1.5 times lower if the household head is a woman. The main reasons declared by households for children being out of school are religious (48% of cases), the cost (26%), and being too young (13%). Overview of the Structure of the Education System Until 2007, the Ministry of Basic and Secondary Education (MoBSE/EMIS) was responsible for the provision of general education from early childhood development (ECD) to higher education. It has since kept the basic and secondary education portfolios, including early childhood development and adult and nonformal education, as part of the expanded vision of basic education. However, in 2007 the Ministry of Higher Education, Research, Science and Technology (MoHERST) was created to assume responsibility for postsecondary education. In its provision, there are currently four main public higher education institutions (the University of The Gambia, The Gambia Technical Training Institute, the Management Development Institute, and The Gambia College), that are expected to merge into a single entity under the University of The Gambia (UTG) and integrate their governance systems.13 As shown in Figure 2.1 below, education in The Gambia begins with a usual four-year cycle of Early Childhood Development followed by nine years of basic education, including the lower basic (six years of primary education - LBE) and upper basic (three years of secondary education - UBE) levels, and three years of senior secondary education (SSE). Technical and Vocational Education Training (TVET) and other non higher postsecondary education consist of two or three year courses, depending on the specialization. Higher education professional streams such as teacher training, nursing and agriculture last from two to four years. Other courses require between four and seven years of study, depending on the field. Adult and nonformal education are mainly project driven and cater for community improvement skills, especially those aimed at the empowerment of women. Currently a public-private partnership approach promotes the outsourcing of the delivery to competent nongovernmental organizations. The only available data on adult and nonformal education are those provided by the national censuses. These are performed every ten years, and offer literacy rates for two age groups, namely the 15 to 24 years group and the 15 years and above group. As a result of both the timing and coverage of the censuses, data on nonformal education enrollment rates is scarce. The Gambia’s Non Formal Education Policy (2010-15) was developed in reference to the National Education Policy (2004-15) and aligned with the education-related MDGs, Education for All (EFA) goals, the second Poverty Reduction Strategic Paper and The Gambia’s Vision 2020 strategy. It has also taken other relevant policies that affect nonformal education into consideration and defines policy goals, objectives and implementation strategies. These are anchored in key priority thematic areas such as access to nonformal education, quality, relevance, financing, validation and certification, and links between the nonformal and formal subsectors. The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 73 Figure 2.1: Structure of the Gambian Education System Type of Schools Level Legal Age 3 Nursery 4 Early Childhood Development (Public, Private, Madrassa) 5 6 Basic Education 7 Primary Schools 8 CHAPTER 2 & Basic Cycle Schools 9 (Government, Private, Lower Basic Education 10 Grant-Aided,* Madrassa) 11 12 Lower Secondary Schools & Basic Cycle Schools Upper Basic Education 13 (Government, Private, 14 ENROLLMENT PATTERNS Grant-Aided,* Madrassa) 15 Upper Secondary Schools (Government, Private, 16 Senior Secondary Technical and Vocational Grant-Aided,* Madrassa) 17 Education Education and Training & Skills Centers 18 (Public, Private) University of The Gambia 19 Gambia Technical Training 20 Institutes, Management Higher and 21 Development Institute, Tertiary 22 The Gambia College (Public) Education 23 & Other Skills Centers 24 (Private) 25 Note: *Grant-aided schools are managed by school boards and the government provides the teachers’ salaries so that the fees are on par with government schools. 74 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) Enrollment Trends Since 2000, The Gambia has witnessed an increase in enrollment at all educational levels (See Table 2.1). Table 2.1: Enrollment Trends, by Education Level and Type of Provider, 2000/01-2009/10 Number of Students Average Annual 2000/01 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 Growth Rate 2005-09 ECD (Including Private) * n/a n/a 48,043 44,521 42,760 62,145 9% Basic Lower Basic 181,835 207,474 218,638 220,931 224,955 227,668 2% Government 138,318 156,542 157,025 159,291 155,731 152,799 -1% Grant-Aided 15,923 18,288 18,357 18,585 18,089 17,756 -1% Private 3,962 7,512 9,674 11,987 13,089 14,275 17% Madrassa 23,632 25,132 33,582 31,068 37,256 42,838 14% Upper Basic 41,493 67,937 68,336 67,432 73,205 75,613 3% Government 30,835 50,090 49,575 48,934 51,805 53,553 2% Grant-Aided 6,102 8,747 9,030 9,294 9,980 9,951 3% Private 4,200 5,400 5,818 6,391 6,612 5,452 0% Madrassa 356 3,700 3,913 2,813 4,808 6,657 16% Subtotal 223,328 275,411 286,974 288,363 298,160 303,281 2% Senior Secondary Government / Grant-Aided ** 11,999 18,549 18,382 21,086 21,005 19,943 1% Private 3,320 11,353 13,554 14,586 14,308 13,535 4% Madrassa 235 1,615 1,818 1,738 2,267 2,663 13% Subtotal 15,554 31,517 33,754 37,410 37,580 36,141 3% Teacher Training Primary Teacher Certificate 242 261 612 457 437 962 39% Higher Teacher Certificate LBE *** n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 93 n/a Higher Teacher Certificate UBE 281 220 200 278 315 439 19% Senior Secondary School Teachers n/a 63 105 8 33 28 -18% Subtotal 523 544 917 743 785 1,522 29% Higher (Excluding Teacher Training) University of The Gambia 75 338 336 412 866 888 27% The Gambia College 68 114 218 210 103 74 -10% GTTI (Excluding Annexes) **** 945 1,825 1,495 1,304 2,003 1,541 -4% Management Development Institute 337 842 1,188 1,370 1,344 1,657 18% Other Institutions ***** n/a 2,465 2,212 1,959 1,706 1,453 -10% Subtotal 1,425 5,584 5,449 4,022 6,022 5,613 0,1% Subtotal (incl. Teacher Training) 1,948 6,128 6,366 5,998 6,807 7,155 3.9% Source: MoBSE/EMIS, MoHERST. Note: * The ECD growth rate is calculated over the 2006-09 period. ** It is difficult to distinguish grant-aided from government schools at this level because many schools changed ownership over the period, passing from public to private management, and MoBSE/EMIS data does not allow the clear differentiation. ***This certificate came into effect in 2009. **** GTTI is The Gambia Technical Training Institute. ***** Other institutions include The Gambia Telecommunication and Multimedia Institute (GTMI), The Gambia Hotel School (GHS), International Business College (IBC), IBAM and GCOM. For this group data was estimated for 2006, 2007and 2008. The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 75 The average annual growth rate in early childhood development enrollment between 2006 and 2009 was of nine percent. Enrollment dropped between 2006 and 2008, but then surged from 2008 to 2009 due to the policy of attaching ECD centers to lower basic schools in deprived communities. Lower basic enrollment for the 2000-09 period has progressively increased from 181,835 to 227,668 (See Figure 2.2). Although the average annual growth rate since 2005 is higher for private institutions (17 percent), this level of education is provided mainly by public institutions which in 2009 enrolled over 67 percent of all pupils. Since 2005, madrassa enrollment has grown by a reported 14 percent. Part of this increase is due to the change of status of some schools achieving accreditation, from darahs to madrassas.14 CHAPTER 2 Figure 2.2: Lower Basic Enrollment Trend, 2000-09 Thousands of Students 240,000 230,000 Number of Students ENROLLMENT PATTERNS 220,000 210,000 200,000 190,000 180,000 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 Source: MoBSE/EMIS. Upper basic enrollment grew considerably from 41,493 in 2000 to 75,613 in 2009, with a steady increase since 2005 at an average annual growth rate of 3 percent. The share of private schools stagnated mainly due to the increase in government schools offering the upper basic level in deprived areas, aiming to expand community access to the full basic cycle (See Figure 2.3). 76 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) Figure 2.3: Upper Basic and Senior Secondary Enrollment Trend (Excluding TVET), by Level, 2000-09 Thousands of Students 80,000 UBE 70,000 SSE Number of Students 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 Source: MoBSE/EMIS. Between 2000 and 2009, enrollment in senior secondary more than doubled, from 15,554 to 36,141 students, which can partly be attributed to the knock-on effect of the implementation of the Universal Basic Education policy, stipulating nine years of compulsory schooling. Enrollment in madrassas witnessed the greatest growth. With an average annual growth rate of 3.9 percent between 2005 and 2009, higher education enrollment (including teacher training) has increased substantially. The annual average higher education enrollment growth rate between 2000 and 2009 reaches an impressive 15.5 percent per year. This increase is mainly attributable to the growth in teacher training enrollment, that has witnessed an overall average annual growth rate of 29 percent between 2005 and 2009, responding to greater demand, especially in basic education, fuelled by the Universal Basic Education policy. In 2009 a new qualification was introduced to train and retain more qualified teachers at the lower basic level. The University of The Gambia and the Management Development Institute grew most markedly at respective average annual rates of 27 percent and 18 percent, whereas other institutions witnessed a decrease in enrollment in nonteaching courses. Higher Education Enrollment by Subject In both 2005/06 and 2009/10, the social sciences, business and law represented a staggering 40 percent of overall enrollment at the higher education level (See Figure 2.4). The share of engineering, manufacturing and construction students has decreased significantly over the last five years from 26 percent to 14 percent. The share of science and The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 77 health and welfare students has also dropped marginally. These trends raise serious concerns over the ultimately negative potential impact on the ability of The Gambia to keep pace with rapid technological development and needs, if no affirmative action is taken to change this situation. While more analyses are needed to better understand the underlying issues, part of the problem stems from too few students graduating in science subjects at WASSCE (See Chapter 4 on Quality). Inversely, teacher training enrollment has almost doubled, from 14 percent to 27 percent, representing the greatest increase in numbers. The growth in the share of humanities and arts students, from one percent to four percent, is also significant. Figure 2.4: Distribution of Higher Education Students in Public Institutions, by Field of Study, 2005/06 and 2009/10 Percent CHAPTER 2 40 Social Sciences, Business & Law 41 Teacher Training 27 14 14 Engineering, Manufacturing & Construction 26 8 ENROLLMENT PATTERNS Sciences 10 Agriculture 4 2009/10 3 Humanities & Arts 4 2005/06 1 Health & Welfare 3 5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Percent Source: MoBSE/EMIS. Gross Enrollment Ratio Evolution In order to better contextualize enrollment trends, population demographics must be taken into account given that they serve as denominator in calculating coverage indicators. From ECD through to secondary education (for which school-aged populations are well defined), the gross enrollment ratios (GER) can be calculated (See Table 2.2). Table 2.2: Schooling Coverage, by Level, 2005/06 and 2009/10 Percent Basic Education Higher ECD Senior Secondary LBE UBE Total Education* G Age group 3-6 7 - 12 13 - 15 7 - 15 16 - 18 n.a. 2005/06 n/a 88.1 66.9 81.7 34.2 427 2006/07 25.6 90.8 65.3 83.1 35.5 431 2007/08 24.5 89.6 62.6 81.4 38.1 396 2008/09 24.3 89.2 66.0 82.1 37.0 437 2009/10 36.4 88.2 66.2 81.4 34.5 447 Source: Authors’ calculations based on MoBSE/EMIS enrollment data and GBoS population data. Note: * Because there is not a single age-group of reference for higher education, the enrollment rate is measured by the number of students per 100,000 inhabitants. For all other levels the gross enrollment ratio is used. 78 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) Table 2.2 shows the evolution of gross enrollment ratios between the 2005/06 school year, and the 2009/10 school year, highlighting the following facts: (i) The ECD gross enrollment ratio is the only one to have increased significantly, from 26 percent to 36 percent; (ii) The lower and upper basic ratios remained fairly constant over the period, reflecting the fact that enrollment increased in line with the growth of the school-aged population for the basic cycle (at about 2.5 percent annually), but by no more; (iii) Although the senior secondary GER increased from 34 percent to 38 percent between 2005 and 2007, by 2009 it had returned to its earlier level, of 34 percent; and (iv) The increase in the coverage of higher education has been relatively steady although slight, from 427 students per 100,000 inhabitants to 447 students per 100,000 inhabitants over the period. Table 2.3: Cross-Country Comparison of Schooling Coverage, 2009 or LAY Gross Enrollment Ratios (Percent) and Number of Students per 100,000 Inhabitants LBE UBE SSE HE* Benin 109.1 58.5 22 949 Burkina Faso 72.4 25.9 8.0 312 Cape Verde 113.5 114 74.8 1,763 Central African Republic 85.1 17.2 7.7 238 Chad 75.5 23.6 11.5 174 Côte d’Ivoire 80.7 35.6 18.1 798 Eritrea 52.4 43.9 20.1 196 Ethiopia 86.6 33.9 5.7 327 Gambia, The 88.2 66.2 34.5 447 Ghana 101.8 74.3 28.4 597 Guinea 89.9 42.9 23.4 813 Liberia 104.0 42.0 25.0 408 Madagascar 143.4 39.5 12.0 307 Malawi 124.6 20.1 15.3 45 Mali 82.0 49.6 17.0 557 Mauritania 103.4 1108 24.1 524 Mozambique 118.1 27.5 7.6 143 Niger 66.0 18.1 2.6 112 Rwanda 151.0 28.0 9.0 474 Senegal 83.5 37.9 15.4 747 Sierra Leone 157.7 49.3 15.4 301 Togo 115.2 57.9 21.2 638 Uganda 115.8 31.6 14.1 339 Tanzania 112.4 38.6 3.9 291 SSA Sub-sample Average (excluding The Gambia) 101.9 40.5 17.5 408.6 Source: UNESCO-Pole de Dakar. Note: * The higher education enrollment rate is measured by the number of students per 100,000 inhabitants because there is no unique duration for higher education. For all other levels the gross enrollment ratio is used. The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 79 Cross-country comparisons show that at the lower basic level, with a GER of 88 percent The Gambia ranks below the sample of Sub-Saharan African average of 102 percent. This is primarily explained by low Gambian repetition, whereas other countries’ higher GERs are inflated by high repetition rates. The Gambia’s GERs at upper basic (66 percent) and secondary (38 percent) levels are generally 20 percentage points higher than the SSA averages, of 40 percent and 17 percent respectively. However for higher education The Gambia tends to be behind, at just 447 students per 100,000 inhabitants, compared with the SSA average of 480. CHAPTER 2 Schooling Profile Although the gross enrollment ratio gives an indication of the system’s enrollment capacity for different age groups, its value and measure of coverage neither give an accurate picture of schooling patterns nor reflect retention at each grade. Schooling and survival profiles allow for a more refined analysis of these. ENROLLMENT PATTERNS Cross-Sectional Schooling Profile A thorough analysis of schooling coverage requires the examination of access rates for each grade. The access rates (the number of new entrants divided by the school-aged population for that grade) computed for each grade in a given year (2009 in this analysis) provide the cross-sectional schooling profile, also referred to as the transversal schooling profile, for that year. The access rate of the last year of a level is used as a proxy for the completion rate of that level. The use of a proxy is due to the fact that enrollment data are collected at the beginning of the school year and not at the end. In the case of Grade 6, it is recognized that the proxy is very close to the actual figure as very few students drop out during this grade. Figure 2.5: Cross-Sectional Schooling Profile, 2009 Percent 100 94 80 75 68 Percent 59 60 36 40 28 20 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Grade Source: Authors’ calculations based on MoBSE/EMIS data. 80 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) In 2009, the Grade 1 gross intake rate was 94 percent, which positioned The Gambia close to its policy target of universal primary access (See Figure 2.5 above). The lower basic completion rate (proxied by the Grade 6 access rate) was 75 percent. The upper basic access rate was 68 percent and the completion rate 59 percent. Access to senior secondary was registered at 36 percent, considerably higher than the rates of other countries, and the secondary completion rate stood at 28 percent. Although gaps exist between the access and completion rates, accurate conclusions cannot be drawn with respect to dropout unless the progress of students of a same cohort through the system is analyzed (which is not the case here). For instance, to establish the dropout rate of the cohort of children who reached Grade 6 in 2009, it would be necessary to compare the PCR with the lower basic access rate of 2004. Survival Profile Of a cohort of 100 new entrants to Grade 1, the proportion of students who reach each subsequent grade provides the survival or retention rate for the corresponding grade, based on the promotion rates from one grade to the next between 2008/09 and 2009/10. The juxtaposition of the different grade retention rates constitutes the survival profile (See Table 2.4). Table 2.4: Construction of the Survival Profile, 2009 Non Repeaters Expected Promotion Survival Schooling 2009 2008 Rate Profile Profile* Grade 1 43,157 44,170 90.2% 100.0% 93.8% Grade 2 39,863 39,172 94.0% 90.2% 84.6% Grade 3 36,835 35,393 96.7% 84.9% 79.6% Grade 4 34,217 32,690 94.2% 82.0% 77.0% Grade 5 30,803 31,119 96.5% 77.3% 72.5% Grade 6 30,040 29,684 89.1% 74.6% 70.0% Grade 7 26,434 26,180 94.7% 66.5% 62.3% Grade 8 24,797 22,779 95.3% 92.9% 59.0% Grade 9 21,705 20,627 62.9% 60.0% 56.3% Grade 10 12,980 13,385 89.6% 37.7% 35.4% Grade 11 11,997 12,399 77.7% 33.8% 31.7% Grade 12 9,632 9,931 - 26.3% 24.6% Source: Authors’ calculations based on MoBSE/EMIS data. Note: * The expected schooling profile is obtained by multiplying each value of the survival profile by the Grade 1 GIR for 2009. The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 81 The expected schooling profile provides the projected access rate to each grade for the years to come. Should the transition rates observed between 2008 and 2009 remain constant, the primary completion rate in 2014 would only be 70 percent. If the promotion rates between grades remain unchanged, the probability that a child who entered Grade 1 reaches Grade 6 is 75 percent, that of reaching Grade 9 is 60 percent, and that of reaching Grade 12 is 26 percent. Figure 2.6 provides a graphical representation of the survival profile for 2009. Figure 2.6: Survival Profile, 2009 Percent CHAPTER 2 100 100 80 75 67 60 60 Percent 40 38 26 20 ENROLLMENT PATTERNS 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Grade Source: Authors’ calculations based on MoBSE/EMIS data. The Educational Pyramid The educational pyramid for The Gambia provides a summary of the different results obtained in this chapter with respect to access, retention and completion at the different levels of schooling (See Figure 2.7). These results can be compared with the Sub-Saharan African average pyramid (See Figure 2.8). 82 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) Figure 2.7: Educational Pyramid for The Gambia, 2009/10 Higher : 447 Students / Theoretical 100,000 Inhabitants ages 18 28% SSE 17 GER = 34% 16 36% 63% 15 59% UBE 14 GER = 66% 13 68% 89% 12 75% 11 LBE 10 9 GER = 88% 8 7 94% Source: UNESCO-Pôle de Dakar. Note: * The higher education enrollment rate is measured by the number of students per 100,000 inhabitants because there is no unique duration for higher education. Figure 2.8: Educational Pyramid for Sub-Saharan Africa, 2007/08 Higher : 525 Students / Theoretical 100,000 Inhabitants ages Secondary 17 15% Upper 16 GER = 22% 15 20% 56% Secondary 14 36% Lower 13 GER = 47% 12 43% 67% 11 64% 10 Primary 9 8 GER = 100% 7 6 96% Source: UNESCO-Pôle de Dakar. Cross-Country Comparisons In comparison with other African countries with similar GDP per capita, the Gambian lower basic gross intake rate (GIR) is below par, and at 94 percent it stands below the Sub-Saharan African average, of 100 percent (See Figure 2.9). Nevertheless, The Gambia’s primary The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 83 1 completion rate (PCR) is comparatively very good at 75 percent, above the SSA average of 67 percent (See Annex Table 2.1). Figure 2.9: Primary GIR and PCR, Cross-Country Comparison, 2009 or LAY Percent 120 Tanzania Primary Completion Rate 100 Cape Verde Sierra Leone 80 Ghana Gambia, The Mauritania CHAPTER 2 SSA Benin Madagascar 60 Togo Liberia Mozambique Mali Senegal Uganda Rwanda Côte d’Ivoire Guinea Guinea-Bissau Eritrea Ethiopia 40 Burkina Faso Niger Malawi CAR Chad 20 ENROLLMENT PATTERNS 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 Gross Intake Rate Source: UNESCO-Pôle de Dakar. At the upper basic and senior secondary levels The Gambia is well positioned in relation to other countries, as already seen above (See also Figures 2.7 and 2.8). The Gambia’s upper basic gross intake and completion rates are the third highest out of twenty four countries. This is partly explained by the Universal Basic Education policy. The senior secondary enrollment ratio, at 38 percent, is second only to that of Cape Verde, and the Gambian secondary completion rate is third out of twenty four countries. Figure 2.10: Upper Basic GIR, Cross-Country Comparison, 2009 or LAY Percent 100 80 Percent 60 40 20 0 Cape Verde Ghana Gambia, The Sierra Leone Benin Tanzania Togo Mali Madagascar Eritrea Liberia Average Senegal Uganda Ethiopia Côte d’Ivoire Mozambique Rwanda Niger Chad Burkina Faso Guinea Mauritania CAR Malawi Source: UNESCO-Pôle de Dakar. 84 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) Figure 2.11: Upper Basic Completion Rate, Cross-Country Comparison, 2009 or LAY Percent 80 60 Percent 40 20 0 Ghana Gambia, The Togo Côte d’Ivoire Liberia Sierra Leone Average Guinea Senegal Madagascar Uganda Tanzania Rwanda Malawi Ethiopia Mozambique Mauritania Burkina Faso Chad Niger CAR Cape Verde Benin Mali Eritrea Source: UNESCO-Pôle de Dakar. School Life Expectancy School life expectancy measures the total number of years of schooling that a child can expect to receive in the future, and represents the average duration of schooling. In The Gambia school life expectancy is 7.8 years, which is higher than the average for African countries with comparable GDP per capita, of 6.9 years (See Figure 2.12). Figure 2.12: School Life Expectancy, Cross-Country Comparison, 2009 or LAY Number of Years 12 10 Number of Years 8 6 4 2 0 Sierra Leone Cape Verde Uganda Ghana Rwanda Benin Gambia, The Mozambique Madagascar Average Guinea Mali CAR Chad Togo Ethiopia Malawi Mauritania Senegal Côte d’Ivoire Niger Burkina Faso Source: UNESCO-Pôle de Dakar. The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 85 Supply and Demand Analysis of Lower Basic Out-of-School and Dropout The fact that a significant number of children do not yet have access to education (the Grade 1 gross intake rate is only 94 percent) is exacerbated by the number of dropouts during primary. Indeed, we have observed that a quarter of those enrolling in the first year are at risk of not completing the level. The proportion of school-aged children that do not attend school is 31.6 percent. A low 2.4 percent were once enrolled and dropped out. However 29.1 percent have never been enrolled at all (See Table 2.5). CHAPTER 2 Table 2.5: Basic Education Attendance and Out-of-School Children (Aged 7-15 Years), 2006 Percent In School 68.4 Out-of-School 31.6 Ever Attended 2.4 Never Attended 29.1 ENROLLMENT PATTERNS Source: Authors’ calculations based on MICS, 2006. We must therefore examine the key factors affecting dropout and nonattendance. There are two types of causes for under enrollment or out-of-school in formal schooling: those linked to a deficiency in the supply of education and those that are linked to a weak demand for schooling (related to the way it is delivered). It is therefore important, when examining the reasons for dropout and nonattendance, to examine both supply and demand side factors. Supply-Side Analysis: The Continuity of Education Supply For the analysis of the supply of education, the availability or absence of schools within an acceptable distance from households is a relevant variable, as access and transportation costs and difficulties act as deterrents to enrollment and attendance. The existence of schools offering all grades, allowing students to complete the full basic cycle within the same institution, is also an important factor. When a school does not offer all grades, students are obliged to seek alternative institutions in order to continue and complete their education, which in many cases puts children at risk of dropping out, as the distance to school might make daily access unfeasible. Because distance is cited by only 1.6 percent of households as the main reason for not attending school (see Table 2.8 below), the study focuses on the existence or lack of continuity in schooling to analyze educational supply. Table 2.6 shows the distribution of schools for the lower basic level according to the number of grades offered and the corresponding share of students enrolled in these schools during 2008 and 2009. The total proportion of students attending incomplete schools is relatively low, and decreased from 9.1 percent in 2008 to 6.1 percent in 2009. 86 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) Table 2.6: Share of Lower Basic Schools and Pupils, by Number of Grades Supplied, 2008 and 2009 Percent Number 2008 2009 of Grades Offered Schools Pupils Schools Pupils 1 Grade 1.4 0.8 0.6 0.0 2 Grades 2.3 0.9 1.4 0.6 3 Grades 2.9 0.9 2.4 0.7 4 Grades 6.4 3.0 5.0 2.3 5 Grades 6.4 3.5 6.2 2.5 Subtotal 19.4 9.1 15.6 6.1 6 Grades 80.6 90.9 84.4 93.9 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Source: Authors’ calculations based on MoBSE/EMIS data. The continuity of education supply in The Gambia should therefore not be a major factor. In fact, most of the incomplete schools captured in this study are newly established, and are expected to offer higher levels and grades by the time the younger pupils reach them. Data from two consecutive years shows the percentage of students who will not be able to attend the next grade at the same school. Table 2.7 provides results based on 2008 and 2009 schooling data. Supply discontinuity is relatively low for all grades and all regions, with the exception of Region 6 where 4.9 percent of students were unable to enroll in Grade 6 in the school where they completed Grade 5. Table 2.7: Share of Students Unable to Pursue their Education in the Same School, LBE, 2009 Percent G1 to G2 G2 to G3 G3 to G4 G4 to G5 G5 to G6 Average Region 1 0.0 3.4 0.2 1.9 0.6 1.2 Region 2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Region 3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 Region 4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Region 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Region 6 1.5 2.3 0.0 1.0 4.9 1.8 Total 0.2 1.1 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.5 Source: Authors’ calculations based on MoBSE/EMIS data. In the Gambian context, the analysis clearly shows that the main reasons for non attendance or dropout are not a lack of classes, therefore indicating that the main reasons are more demand oriented. Demand-Side Factors On the demand side, the analysis will first be based on the estimation of the impacts of The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 87 certain social and economic household characteristics on the decision to have children out of school. Secondly, the causes of nonattendance mentioned by households will be examined. The effects of certain child and household characteristics are more significant in determining the causes of children being out-of-school than the supply-side factors. Figure 2.13 below depicts the odds ratio of school nonattendance, comparing the probability of enrollment for two groups with contrasting characteristics, according to given factors. It highlights the following: (i) Children living in households where the head is uneducated are 5.4 times more likely CHAPTER 2 to be out-of-school than those where the household head had access to lower basic education; (ii) Children from the 20 percent poorest households are 3.8 times more likely to be out- of-school than those from the 20 percent richest homes; (iii) Children from rural areas are 2.4 times more likely to be out-of-school than those from urban areas; and (iv) Children from homes where the household head is female are 1.5 times less likely to ENROLLMENT PATTERNS be out-of-school. Figure 2.13: Odds Ratio of Children being Out-of-School, by Characteristic, 2006 Ratio Education of Household Head Wealth Area of Residence Gender of Household Head 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Odds Ratio Source: Authors’ calculations based on MoBSE/EMIS data, MICS, 2006. The breakdown of out-of-school children according to the wealth of their household shows unsurprising results (See Figure 2.14 below). Over a third of out-of-school children are from the poorest quintile, and the share attributable to each successive quintile then progressively drops; only eight percent of out-of-school children are from the wealthiest quintile. This distribution is to be expected given that the cost of schooling is often prohibitive for the poorest families, who also have a greater need for their children to contribute to the economic activity of the household (See Chapter 3). The distribution of the unenrolled children according to region shows a lesser variation. The highest share of out-of-school children live in Region 5 (24 percent), whereas only 10 percent of them come from Region 4. 88 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) Figure 2.14: Distribution of Out-of-School Children (Aged 7-15 Years), by Wealth Quintile and Region, 2006 Percent Richest Region 5 8% 22% Poorest 34% Region 4 Fourth 16% 10% Region 6 22% Region 1 12% Middle 20% Region 2 Second Region 3 22% 13% 19% Source: Authors’ calculations based on MoBSE/EMIS data, MICS, 2006. The reasons for nonattendance cited by households are presented in Table 2.8. Religious motives (such as the fact that the school proposed to parents does not match their requirements in terms of religion) are mentioned by almost half the parents whose children are out-of-school, whereas financial and economic considerations justify this situation in about 26 percent of cases, being either the direct cost of schooling, or the opportunity cost related to the requirement that children work to provide the household with greater income. Finally, 13 percent of families consider their children to be too young to leave home. These patterns are quite consistent across regions. Table 2.8: Reasons for School Nonattendance Cited by Households, by Region, 2009 Percent Region 1 Region 2 Region 3 Region 4 Region 5 Region 6 Total Religious 46.6 53.3 46.8 48.4 46.1 49.2 48.4 Work/Cost 30.1 17.9 20.3 25.1 32.9 24.9 25.7 Age 10.7 12.9 23.8 15.6 9.6 10.2 12.9 Not Usefull 1.0 2.5 1.3 - 2.2 2.4 2.0 Distance 1.3 1.3 - 4.1 0.2 1.6 Handicap 5.8 2.1 0.4 3.1 0.9 1.2 1.5 Other 5.8 10.0 6.1 7.8 4.2 11.9 7.9 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Source: PSIA, 2009. Notes 13 In spite of the distinct ministry mandates, the analyses in this chapter provide an account of the entire education sector, from ECD to higher education. However, because of the unavailability of adequate data, limited reference is made to technical and vocational education and training (TVET), and adult and nonformal education. 14 Darahs are upgraded to madrassas upon compliance with a series of requirements (curriculum, equipment and so on). While darahs offer teaching on a more informal mode, madrassas are formal schools accredited by the MoBSE/EMIS. Both offer teaching in Arabic. The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 89 CHAP CHAPTER 3 TER 3 EDUCATION COST AND FINANCING 90 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) CHAPTER 3 EDUCATION COST AND FINANCING The progress made towards the Education for All objectives focusing on enrollment, schooling patterns, and the factors affecting the supply and demand for education has been outlined in the previous chapter. This chapter reviews education financing by source, and analyzes recurrent development (capital) expenditure. The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 91 KEY FINDINGS 1. Recurrent public education expenditure has increased from D 148 million to D 549 million over 2001-09, however it still only represents 17.8% of the Government total recurrent expenditure, below the FTI Benchmark of 20%, and the ECOWAS average, of 24%. 2. Basic education is allocated the highest share of the budget (LBE receives 51%, and UBE 23%), and SSE receives 11%, making Gambian spending on basic education 6% higher than the ECOWAS average. This share is even higher when the high primary completion rate is taken into account, raising the issue of progressively shifting priority towards post basic education to match increasing demand. Indeed, TVET only represents 2.6% and higher education is allocated 12%, including teacher training. Public funding for ECD is almost nil. CHAPTER 3 3. Recurrent unit costs are lower than for neighboring countries mainly because teachers’ wages are low: at D 1,886 (12% of GDP per capita) for UBE, unit costs are 10% lower than the ECOWAS average, and at D 3,822 (23% of GDP per capita) for SSE, they are 22% lower. TVET and higher education recurrent unit costs are respectively 169% and 84% lower than the ECOWAS average. EDUCATION COST AND FINANCING 4. The average teacher’s monthly salary in lower basic is D 3,400 and represents 2.5 units of GDP per capita, lower than the FTI benchmark of 3.5. Qualified teachers are paid 35% and 41% more than unqualified teachers in lower and upper basic. Compared to other countries, Gambian teachers’ salaries are at the lower end of the range. 5. Spending other than teachers’ salaries at the lower basic level is 29%, below the FTI benchmark of 33% and the ECOWAS average of 32%. 6. Donor financing represented 39% of the total education budget in 2009. During the last three years, on average, 89% of development expenditures in basic and senior secondary education come from Donors. 7. Households contribute significantly to education with total annual spending of D729 million, equivalent to 2.8% of GDP (higher than the African average of 2.1%). Despite the free tuition policy for public schools, 46% of lower basic education is still funded by households. For UBE, SSE, and TVET, the respective contributions are even higher, at 67%, 70% and 81% of the cost. In higher education, the cost is equally shared between the government and households. 8. The distribution of household spending by items shows that school and registration fees (official fees in private schools and unofficial fees in public schools) account for 43%, transport for 14% and uniforms for 14%. Thanks to the government provision of textbooks, Gambian families spend a lower share of their school budget on the latter (11%) than the African average (31%), but the share devoted to uniforms and transportation (36%) is above average (20%). I t is worth noting that there are still difficulties in obtaining accurate data on nongovernmental and civil society spending on education. With this caveat, the following analysis provides details of the distribution of education resources and some discussion of its efficiency and effectiveness as they relate to policy statements, and in comparison with other countries as per international commitments. Overview of Education Financing Public Financing The government assumes the majority of recurrent education expenditure, and donor contributions are devoted largely to development (capital) expenditure (included recurrent expenditure). For analytical purposes, spending on government scholarships to support girls’ schooling in upper basic and senior secondary schools, generally included in development expenditure, have been considered within recurrent expenditure. Table 3.1: Breakdown of Education Financing, by Type and Source, 2001-09 Million of Dalasis, and Percent 2001 2002 2003 2004 Level of Education Funding (Millions of Dalasis) Recurrent 142.5 341.2 426.8 479.7 Development (Capital) 84.2 249.8 416.9 416.3 Government Financing 5.7 14.7 29.9 69.3 Donor Financing ** 78.4 235.1 387.1 347.0 Total National Education Expenditure 148.2 355.9 456.7 549.0 Total 226.7 591.0 843.7 896.6 Recurrent Education Expenditure (Percent) As a Share of Total Government Recurrent Expenditure * 16.7 19.2 17.2 17.8 As a Share of Domestic Revenue (Excluding Grants) 14.4 9.8 12.2 12.0 As a Share of GDP 0.9 1.6 1.9 1.8 Donor Financing as a Share of the Total Education Budget 34.6 39.8 45.9 38.7 Total Government Expenditure as a Share of GDP 0.9 1.7 2.0 2.1 Source: Authors’ calculations based on IFMIS data and PCU - MoBSE. Note: * Government recurrent expenditure excludes the service of debt. ** Donor financing includes recurrent expenditures such as girls’ scholarships, the school feeding program, training, and others. Total national education expenditure increased from 0.9 percent of GDP in 2001 to 2.1 percent of GDP in 2009. Recurrent education expenditure represents an average of 18 percent of recurrent government expenditure, excluding debt service. An average of 93 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 93 percent of public education expenditure has been devoted to recurrent costs, with negligible amounts being spent on investment. However, government capital spending has risen from 4 percent of total public expenditure in 2001 to 13 percent in 2009. In spending 17.8 of total recurrent expenditure excluding debt service on education in 2009, The Gambia ranks well below its neighbors in the ECOWAS subregion; this percentage is only higher than those of postconflict Guinea-Bissau and Liberia (See Figure 3.1), and is below the FTI benchmark of 20 percent. With a subregional average of 24 percent, there is scope for The Gambia to increase the priority given to education in public spending. Figure 3.1: Education Share of Public Recurrent Expenditure, The Gambia and ECOWAS Countries, 2009 or LAY Percent CHAPTER 3 40 35 30 Percent 25 20 EDUCATION COST AND FINANCING 15 10 5 0 Guinea-Bissau Liberia Gambia, The Guinea SSA Average ECOWAS Average Benin Togo Burkina Faso Cape Verde Côte d’Ivoire Niger Senegal Mali Sierra Leone Ghana Source: IFMIS and government budget for The Gambia; UNESCO-Pôle de Dakar for ECOWAS countries. In terms of school level costs, the government covers the basic expense of running primary schools, in line with the free tuition policy at the lower basic level. It also supplies inputs such as textbooks at both lower and upper basic levels, and offers scholarship packages to girls and the students in most financial difficulty at the upper basic and senior secondary levels. Donor Financing Donors have financed 40 percent of education expenditure on average since 2001. In 2009, donor financing represented 1.3 percent of GDP, which is lower than Sub-Saharan average of 1.5 percent of GDP. The government development (capital) budget is heavily reliant on donor financing (See Table 1.6 in Chapter 1) and by extension, the education sector’s capital investments are donor driven (See the last section of this chapter on capital expenditure). 94 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) Household Financing According to the Poverty and Social Impact Analysis (PSIA) survey conducted in 2009, The Gambia’s total household annual spending on education is D 729 million, which represents 2.8 percent of GDP. This contribution is significantly higher than the average of 2.1 percent of GDP calculated for the 18 African countries with available data. Household contributions to education in The Gambia rank among the highest on the continent, despite investment returns being low (See Annex Figure 3.1 and Chapter 5). Private Unit Costs by Level of Education Households contribute mainly to basic and senior secondary education, which is due to the fact that most enrollments are concentrated at those levels of schooling. Lower basic absorbs 29 percent of household education spending, upper basic 30 percent and senior secondary 16 percent. The share devoted to higher education is only nine percent, reflecting the low number of students that pursue their education beyond senior secondary school. Preschool and TVET each absorb eight percent of household education spending despite very low enrollment at those levels. This is explained by the fact those levels are the least subsidized by the government (See Table 3.5 below). Household spending per student, otherwise referred to as private unit costs, increases with each successive level of education. It ranges from D 887 for preschool to D 9,212 for higher education, mirroring the public unit costs trend (See the later section on public recurrent expenditure). The increase throughout the lower basic and secondary levels is explained in part by the fact that families must pay school fees for upper basic and senior secondary schooling given that the government’s free tuition policy only covers the lower basic level. Table 3.2: Household Education Spending, by Level, 2009 Distribution Unit Costs Unit Costs (%) (Dalasis) (% of GDP per Capita) Preschool 7.6 887 5.4 Lower Basic 29.3 939 5.7 Upper Basic 30.3 2,918 17.8 Senior Secondary 16.2 3,268 20.0 TVET 7.6 4,508 27.6 Higher Education 9.0 9,212 56.3 Source: Estimates from PSIA, 2009. The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 95 The comparison of Gambian household spending per student (private unit costs) with neighboring countries provides the following striking findings:15 (i) The Gambia’s private unit cost for lower basic education is high. Families spend the equivalent of 5.4 percent of GDP per capita on the schooling of a child, far above the African average of 4.2 percent of GDP per capita. The Gambia’s private unit costs for lower basic education are the fourth highest of the group. (ii) For higher education the situation is quite the opposite: The Gambia is among the countries with the lowest private unit costs. Household spending per student is estimated at 56 percent of GDP per capita, significantly lower than the African average, of 73 percent of GDP per capita. Public-Private Cost-Sharing by Level of Education CHAPTER 3 The analysis of the structure of cost-sharing between public and private resources by level of education can contribute to enhance sound policy dialogue on the allocation of additional public resources to the education sector. The striking results of the analysis are displayed in Figure 3.2: (i) Despite the free tuition policy for government schools, 46 percent of lower basic EDUCATION COST AND FINANCING education is still funded by households. These resources cover school and registration fees, mainly in private schools. Fees represent 65 percent of household spending in private schools on average, against 16 percent (mainly unofficial fees) in government schools. Other household expenses are for uniforms, learning materials and private tuition (which represents 18 percent of household spending in government schools on average, against five percent in private schools) and transportation; (ii) Higher education is the level for which the share of government funding is second highest (47 percent, against 53 percent of private financing). This raises an equity issue in the way public education resources are allocated because: (i) higher education students are almost all from the wealthiest income quintiles of the country, and are effectively receiving subsidized university education at the expense of the financing of basic education, that would benefit poorer unenrolled children; and (ii) the private return on investment in higher education is higher than the social return on investment. This issue could be addressed to achieve a more equitable system of sharing the costs of higher education; (iii) Private contributions for upper basic and senior secondary education are high, at 67 percent and 70 percent of total recurrent costs, respectively; and (iv) TVET is mainly funded by households (81 percent). Moreover, the public share of 19 percent includes the resources levied from TVET institutions that finance the National Training Authority (NTA) that does not provide training per se, but is in charge of monitoring the subsector and of the accreditation of training programs. Without the 96 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) cost of the NTA, the government share of TVET financing barely represents 2.4 percent of the total cost, which is very low. Figure 3.2: Public-Private Recurrent Cost-Sharing, by Level of Education, 2009 Percent 100% 80% 46 70 81 53 Percent 60% 67 Private 40% Government 20% 54 47 33 30 19 0% LBE UBE SSE TVET Higher Source: Tables 3.2 and 3.7. Breakdown of Household Education Spending by Type Of the total of D 729 million that households spend annually on education in The Gambia, the largest shares cover school tuition and registration fees (43 percent), uniforms and sports clothes (14 percent) and transportation to and from school (14 percent). Other spending includes textbooks and other learning materials, private tuition, examination fees and contributions to parent teacher associations. Table 3.3 shows the shares allocated to each of these different categories by level of education. By reclassifying household education spending into three broad categories, namely tuition fees, textbooks and other school supplies, and other expenditures, it is possible to better understand how Gambian households prioritize their expenditures in comparison with other countries.16 Table 3.3: Distribution of Household Education Spending, 2009 Percent School and Uniforms Textbooks Transpor- Exam Private Other Registration and Sports and School tation Fees Tuition Expenses Fees Clothes Supplies Preschool 39 20 10 20 0 10 2 Lower Basic 48 16 10 10 1 10 4 Upper Basic 35 13 11 18 5 11 6 Senior Secondary 43 8 12 19 6 7 6 TVET 25 11 8 22 19 3 12 Higher 83 10 8 0 0 0 0 All levels 43 14 11 14 3 10 5 Source: PSIA 2009 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 97 Gambian households devote a lower share of their education resources to textbooks and other teaching materials (11 percent, against 31 percent on average), which is understandable given the government’s free textbook scheme for lower, upper and senior secondary level. In contrast, the share of Gambian household education spending devoted to other expenses, which include uniforms and transportation, is higher at 36 percent than the African average of 20 percent. In the context of rising poverty levels, many households are unable to afford to send their children to school, especially beyond the lower basic level (See Chapter 2). Public Recurrent Expenditure CHAPTER 3 Public Recurrent Expenditure by Type of Spending The share of public recurrent education expenditure allocated to basic and secondary education increased from 81 percent in 2007 to 85 percent in 2009, while the share allocated to higher education decreased from 19 percent to 15 percent.17 In both the MoBSE/EMIS and the MoHERST, management represents a significant share of the recurrent budget at 12 percent and 18 percent respectively in 2009 (See Table 3.4 and Annex Table 3.2). At the school level, EDUCATION COST AND FINANCING basic and secondary personnel salaries constitute the main expenditure at 85 percent: 69 percent for government school salaries, plus 17 percent for grant-aided18 school staff, through subsidies. Table 3.4: Breakdown of Public Recurrent Education Expenditure, by Type, 2007-09 Percent 2007 2008 2009 Basic and Secondary Education (MoBSE) 81 83 85 School Level 92 90 88 Personnel Salaries 71 68 69 Grant-Aided School Subsidies 18 19 17 Madrassa Subsidies 0 0 0 Student Scholarships 3 3 3 Other Recurrent Expenditure 0 0 0 Management 8 10 12 Personnel Salaries 3 2 2 Other Recurrent Expenditure 5 7 9 Higher Education (MoHERST) 19 17 15 Institutions 92 94 82 Personnel Salaries 31 31 32 Student Scholarships 21 30 18 Other Recurrent Expenditure 40 33 32 Management 8 6 18 Personnel Salaries 1 1 2 Other Recurrent Expenditure 7 5 16 Source: Authors’ calculations based on IFMIS data. 98 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) Student scholarships represent 3 percent of basic and senior secondary expenditures and subsidies to madrassas are minimal, at 0.1 percent. For higher education, staff salaries represent 32 percent of the budget. Over the 2007 to 2009 period, student scholarships at this level decreased from 21 percent to 18 percent;19 the peak of 30 percent in 2008 was due to the one-off award of scholarships for study abroad. Public Recurrent Education Expenditure by Level When disaggregated by level, basic education (comprising early childhood development, lower basic and upper basic) accounts for the highest share of public recurrent education expenditure, at 74 percent. Lower basic represents 51 percent and upper basic 23 percent (See Table 3.5). Only 0.2 percent of spending is devoted to adult education. Although the financing of literacy courses is low, it has nominally increased by an annual average of 24 percent since 2001. Public funding of early childhood development is almost nil. Table 3.5: Distribution of Public Recurrent Education Expenditure, by Level, 2009 Millions of Dalasis, and Percent Amount % Lower Basic 245 51.0 Upper Basic 111 23.2 Senior Secondary 52 10.8 TVET 13 2.6 Higher Education 41 8.6 Gambia College 17 3.5 Adult Education 1 0.2 Total 480 100.0 Source: Authors’ calculations based on IFMIS data. The share of the public recurrent education budget allocated to senior secondary is 10.8 percent. TVET skill centers absorb only 2.6 percent of the budget, but as mentioned earlier, 87 percent of this is spent on the NTA. Higher education is allocated 12 percent of the recurrent education budget, when including the Gambia College allocation. Cross-Country Comparison The Gambia spends more on basic education than the ECOWAS subregional average, underscoring the priority given by the government to basic education. The Gambia allocates three and eight percent more to both lower and upper basic and secondary education than the regional average, respectively. Conversely, the shares allocated to TVET and higher education are three percent and six percent below the respective regional averages (See Table 3.6 below). The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 99 Table 3.6: Distribution of Recurrent Education Expenditure, by Level, for ECOWAS Countries, 2009 or LAY Percent Primary Lower Senior Higher TVET Other * Secondary Secondary Education Benin 53.6 12.0 6.7 4.8 19.7 3.2 Burkina Faso 56.3 9.0 5.6 2.6 22.4 4.1 Cape Verde 43.5 13.9 22 3.6 13.9 3.1 Côte d’Ivoire 42.7 17.6 9.8 7.2 20.9 1.7 Gambia, The 51.0 23.2 10.8 2.6 12.1 0.2 Ghana 53.6 12.0 6.7 4.8 19.7 3.2 Guinea 56.3 9.0 5.6 2.6 22.4 4.1 Guinea-Bissau 43.5 13.9 22 3.6 13.9 3.1 Liberia 42.7 17.6 9.8 7.2 20.9 1.7 CHAPTER 3 Mali 36.5 16.7 12.9 9.9 17.6 6.4 Niger 60.2 15.8 4.4 3.4 10.3 5.9 Senegal 45.5 8.2 15.7 7.6 22.7 0.4 Sierra Leone 51.0 17.4 5.4 4 22 0.2 Togo 38.1 24.0 8 7.7 20.3 1.8 ECOWAS Average 48.2 15.0 10.4 5.1 18.5 2.8 EDUCATION COST AND FINANCING Source: Authors’ calculations based on IFMIS data for The Gambia; UNESCO-Pôle de Dakar for ECOWAS countries. Note: * Other includes literacy courses in The Gambia, and ECD, literacy courses and primary teacher training for other countries. To contribute effectively to policy dialogue, it is important to contextualize the cross-country comparison of the priority given to primary education according to the level of progress towards the achievement of universal primary completion, as set out in the millennium development goals. Countries that are more advanced toward universal primary completion should logically allocate a greater proportion of education expenditure to postprimary education, as demand for secondary and higher education in those countries is more important. Likewise, it is logical that countries that are further away from achieving universal primary education should give financial priority to the primary level to achieve the MDG. Figure 3.3 below shows the relationship between the primary completion rate and the share of education expenditure devoted to primary education. One can see the negative correlation: countries less advanced in terms of primary education generally allocate a higher share of their spending to this level. Nevertheless there are significant disparities with respect to this global average relationship and the position of The Gambia is particularly interesting: the primary completion rate is higher than that of many other countries, but so also is the level of spending on the primary level. This raises the issue of progressively reallocating resources and giving greater priority to postbasic education, to match rising demand. Nevertheless, on a side note, it is positive that the The Gambia has a higher primary completion rate than other countries dedicating the same (or a higher) share of funding to primary education. 100 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) Figure 3.3: Ratio of the Share of Primary Recurrent Education Expenditure to the PCR, ECOWAS Countries, 2008 or LAY 110 Mauritius Cape Verde Primary Completion Rate (%) 90 Sierra Leone Ghana São Tomé Gambia, The Mauritania 70 Congo Liberia Togo Benin Mali Senegal Sudan Rwanda Guinea-Bissau 50 Côte d’ivoire Guinea Niger Burundi CAR Burkina Faso 30 Chad 10 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Primary Education Share of Recurrent Expenditure (%) Source: Table 3.6 and chapter 2 for The Gambia; UNESCO-Pôle de Dakar for the other countries. Public Recurrent Unit Costs, by Level Public recurrent unit costs are calculated by dividing the public recurrent expenditure devoted to each level by the number of students enrolled in government schools and institutions at that level. They are interpreted as the average cost per student for one year of schooling. Table 3.7 shows the recurrent unit costs for each level, including administrative costs. Table 3.7: Public Recurrent Unit Costs, by Level, 2009 Public Recurrent Public Recurrent Unit Cost Number of Education Students Expenditure (% of GDP per (Multiple of LBE (Million Dalasis) (Dalasis) Capita) Unit Cost) Lower Basic 155,731 225.2 1,446 8.8 1.0 Upper Basic 51,805 97.7 1,886 11.5 1.3 Senior Secondary 3,300 10.4 3,822 23.4 2.6 TVET 602 1.6 2,625 16.0 1.8 Higher Education 3,757 56.0 14,913 91.2 10.3 Gambia College 855 16.7 19,589 119.7 13.5 GTTI 2,003 11.8 5,891 36.0 4.1 University of The Gambia 899 27.5 30,566 186.8 21.1 Source: IFMIS, 2009 and MoBSE/EMIS, 2008/09. The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 101 There is a steady progression in public unit costs through levels, starting at D 1,446 for lower basic, which represents 8.8 percent of GDP per capita, and reaching D 3,822 at the senior secondary level, just over twice the amount. TVET appears to be relatively inexpensive to fund, at D 2,625 per student. As in other countries the higher education recurrent unit cost is higher than the other subsector costs, and at D 14,913 is equivalent to 91 percent of GDP per capita and ten times the lower basic unit cost. This does however conceal considerable variations, as the cost per GTTI student is just D 5,891, whereas a year of study at the University of The Gambia costs the state a considerable D 30,566, equivalent to 187 percent of GDP per capita, and representing 21 times the lower basic unit cost. Cross-Country Comparison Public recurrent unit costs are generally lower in The Gambia than in other countries in the CHAPTER 3 subregion, for all levels (See Table 3.8). For example unit costs at upper basic and senior secondary levels are 10 percent and 22 percent lower than the ECOWAS averages, in terms of GDP per capita. The difference is particularly stark for TVET, which is 12 times less costly than the ECOWAS average. The unit cost of higher education, despite being high relative to other levels in The Gambia, is still only half what other countries spend on average at this level. EDUCATION COST AND FINANCING Table 3.8: Public Recurrent Unit Costs, for ECOWAS Countries, 2009 or LAY Percent of GDP per Capita LBE UBE SSE TVET Higher Benin 13.1 10.9 31.9 120.7 133.5 Burkina Faso 16.6 19.3 62.5 180.7 215.2 Cape Verde 15.4 14.5 21.3 21.3 74.4 Côte d’Ivoire 18.3 31.5 72.3 267.1 167.5 Gambia, The 8.8 11.5 23.4 16.0 91.2 Ghana 17.8 32.8 57.8 42.7 297.8 Guinea 5.0 10.8 4.4 92.6 145.3 Guinea-Bissau 12.0 - - 153 55.6 Liberia 9.1 21.2 26.9 395.9 117.9 Mali 10.9 20.2 74.8 191.3 130.6 Niger 21.6 44.6 116.6 612 402 Nigeria 13.8 - - - - Senegal 15.0 11 41 231 147 Sierra Leone 9.9 29.1 30.3 73.4 341.7 Togo 11.4 23.1 28.6 190.8 137.9 ECOWAS Average 13.3 21.5 45.2 184.9 175.5 Source: Table 3.7 for The Gambia; UNESCO-Pôle de Dakar for ECOWAS countries. 102 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) Factors Affecting Public Unit Costs The level of education unit costs are influenced by teachers’ salaries, the pupil teacher ratio and recurrent expenditures other than teachers’ salaries, including the salaries of nonteaching personnel and other recurrent expenditures. The Gambia’s low unit costs are mainly explained by the very low level of teacher salaries. At the lower basic level, teachers are paid D 3,400 per month on average: D 3,600 for qualified teachers and D 2,300 for unqualified teachers. This level of wages represents 2.5 units of GDP per capita, and is markedly lower than FTI benchmark of 3.5 units of GDP per capita. With unqualified (and untrained) teachers being paid 35 percent less than qualified teachers and accounting for 15 percent of the teaching staff, The Gambia faces the critical challenge of raising teachers’ pay. This is necessary to meet the FTI benchmark, which has been established at a level considered appropriate to retain quality teachers in the profession. The risk in failing to do so is of losing qualified teaching staff, or being unable to attract candidates that are suitable for the job in the future. Table 3.9: Average Government Basic and Senior Secondary Teacher Salaries, by Level and Qualification, 2009 Dalasis As Units of GDP Monthly Annual per Capita Lower Basic (Average) 3,389 40,673 2.5 Qualified Teacher 3,630 43,565 2.7 Unqualified Teacher 2,343 28,116 1.7 Upper Basic (Average) 3,866 46,388 2.8 Qualified Teacher 3,984 47,806 2.9 Unqualified Teacher 2,343 28,116 1.7 Senior Secondary (Qualified) 4,123 49,480 3 Source: Authors’ calculations based on Ministry of Finance payroll data. At the upper basic level teachers are paid D 3,900 per month on average, there being a similar difference between qualified (D 4,000 per month) and unqualified (D 2,300 per month) teachers as at the lower basic level: unqualified teachers, who represent 7 percent of the teaching staff, are paid 41 percent less than qualified teachers. At senior secondary level the salary is marginally higher than at the basic level, at D 4,100 per month on average, equivalent to 3 units of GDP per capita. Compared with other African developing countries, The Gambia’s average lower and upper basic teachers’ salaries are at the lower end of the lower range (See Figure 3.4). The comparatively insignificant difference between the salaries paid to lower basic and upper basic teachers in The Gambia is also worthy of note; in most countries secondary teachers receive markedly higher wages than their primary counterparts. Low salaries are not specific to the education sector: Gambian earnings are lower on average than those of other African The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 103 countries for individuals with no education, basic education, technical training, or higher education (See Chapter 5 for details). Figure 3.4: Average Teachers’ Salaries, African Developing Countries, 2009 or LAY Units of GPD per Capita Units of GDP per Capita 12 10 LBE 8 UBE 6 4 2 0 Guinea Chad Gambia, The Madagascar Liberia Maurtitania Benin Rwanda Eritrea Sierra Leone Guinea-Bissau Lesotho Mali Ghana Senegal Burkina Faso Mozambique Niger Malawi Togo Ethiopia CAR Burundi CHAPTER 3 Source: Table 3.9 for The Gambia; World Bank for other countries. The second factor that affects the level of unit costs is the pupil teacher ratio in government schools. Interestingly, this ratio is lower in The Gambia than in many African countries, and EDUCATION COST AND FINANCING so can not be a contributing factor to the low Gambian unit costs (See Table 3.10). Table 3.10: Pupil to Teacher Ratio in Government Schools, Various African Countries, 2009 or LAY LBE UBE SSE Benin 47 36 19 Burkina Faso 55 86 26 Burundi 52 43 20 Central African Republic 92 57 37 Congo, The 110 73 23 Gambia, The 41 41 28 Guinea 49 60 48 Guinea-Bissau 48 25 25 Madagascar 55 42 22 Mali 53 45 26 Niger 40 35 15 Togo 44 47 52 ECOWAS Average 58 50 28 Source: MoBSE/EMIS for The Gambia; CSRs for other countries. The third main factor affecting unit costs is the remaining recurrent expenditure items, excluding teachers’ salaries. 104 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) Table 3.11: Recurrent Education Expenditure other than Teachers’ Salaries, Basic and Senior Secondary Levels, by Type, 2009 Percent Number of Students Total Management Resources Non Other Other Other Than Teachers’ Student Staff Teachers’ Recurrent Recurrent Teachers’ Salaries Scholarships Salaries Salaries Expenditure Expenditure Salaries Basic Education 70.8 13.4 2.4 0.2 2.7 10.4 29.2 Lower Basic 71.3 14.2 0.1 0.3 2.8 11.2 28.7 Upper Basic 69.6 11.8 7.6 0.1 2.3 8.6 30.4 Senior Secondary 54.9 6.6 25.2 3.1 6.1 4.3 45.1 Source: Authors’ calculations based on IFMIS data. At the lower basic level, about 29 percent of recurrent education expenditure is allocated to items other than teachers’ salaries. This is below the FTI benchmark of 33 percent and the ECOWAS average of 32 percent, although lower. Figure 3.5: Recurrent Education Expenditure other than Teacher’s Salaries, Primary Level, ECOWAS Countries, 2009 or LAY Percent 70 60 50 40 Percent 30 20 10 0 Ghana Burkina Faso Togo Niger Guinea-Bissau Gambia, The Guinea Côte d’Ivoire Sierra Leone ECOWAS Average FTI Benchmark Cape Verde Senegal Mali Benin Liberia Source: Table 3.11 for The Gambia; UNESCO-Pôle de Dakar for other ECOWAS countries. Subsidies to Grant-Aided Schools Grant-aided schools are managed by school boards and the government provides the teachers’ salaries so that the fees are on par with government schools. A total of 61 schools are subsidized in all the six Regional Education Directorates: 32 basic cycle schools and 29 senior secondary schools. In 2009 the government allocated about 68 million dalasis to The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 105 grant-aided schools, to finance teacher salaries. Twenty four percent of this amount was dedicated to the lower basic level and 19 percent to upper basic. However the majority of the subsidies (57 percent) financed senior secondary teachers’ salaries. This is principally because 87 percent of schools at this level are grant-aided. There is very little difference between the cost of teachers’ salaries per pupil in grant-aided and government schools (See Table 3.12). Table 3.12: Cost of Teachers’ Salaries per Pupil, Grant-Aided and Government Schools, by Level, 2009 Dalasis Subsidies to Grant-Aided Schools Government Total (’000 Unit Enrollment Teacher Salary Dalasis) Costs Cost per Pupil CHAPTER 3 Lower Basic 16,205 18,089 896 1,032 Upper Basic 12,587 9,980 1,261 1,313 Senior Secondary 38,941 17,705 2,199 2,097 Source: IFMIS and MoBSE/EMIS data. EDUCATION COST AND FINANCING Development Expenditure and Comparison of School Building Costs Development (Capital) Expenditure for Basic and Senior Secondary Education The government’s capital budget is heavily reliant on donor financing and by extension, education sector capital investments are donor driven. Between 2007 and 2009, 87 percent of the capital investments in the education sector have been financed by donors on average, the balance being covered by government counterpart financing. In 2009, government financing accounted for 20 percent of development (capital) expenditure. Even though the lion’s share of development expenditure is allocated to basic education (75 percent on average), this proportion has been decreasing since 2007, with the corresponding increase in the allocation to secondary education (See Table 3.13). This demonstrates the government’s deliberate effort to cope with students’ transition from basic education that is creating a surge in the demand for places at the next level. 106 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) Table 3.13: Development (Capital) Expenditure Financing, by Level and Source, 2007-09 Percent 2007 2008 2009 Average Level of Education Basic Education 84.0 71.2 68.8 75 Senior Secondary 9.3 27.2 26.1 21 Teacher Training 0.9 0.6 4.3 2 Sector Management 5.8 0.9 0.9 3 Source of Funding Donors 86.4 88.6 77.7 84 Government 13.6 11.4 22.3 16 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100 Source: PCU-MoBSE. Future prospects are that the government will assume an increasingly higher share of development expenditure, given that The Gambia is slowly becoming a donor-orphan country: the Islamic Development Bank, the African Development Bank, the Arab Bank for Economic Development in Africa, and the U.K. Department for International Development all closed their projects in 2010, and have no further plans to support basic education in The Gambia. Classroom construction and rehabilitation accounts for more than 61 percent of donor spending at the basic level, and for 93 percent in senior secondary (See Table 3.14). The inherent need for development expenditure to provide adequate access to the different cycles, through sufficient infrastructure in particular, means that this unfortunate situation may continue in the near future. Table 3.14:Breakdown of Donor Support to Basic and Senior Secondary Education, by Purpose, 2007/08 and 2008/09 Percent Purpose 2007/08 2008/09 School Construction and Rehabilitation 61 61 Girls’ Scholarships 3 4 Basic Education School Feeding Programs 17 19 Training 10 7 Other Costs 9 9 Construction 94 93 Senior Secondary Girls’ Scholarships 6 7 Source: PCU-MoBSE, WFP. The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 107 Comparison of School Building Costs At the lower basic level, the unit cost of a non-furnished classroom ranges from US$ 12,000 (with public funding, the construction being managed directly by the MoBSE’s PCU) to US$ 21,000 (with FTI funding, the construction being managed by the Gambian Agency for the Management of Public Works, GAMWORKS). It should be noted that the unit costs include the costs of management and latrine blocks as well as supervision fees when the works are performed by NGOs (under a framework agreement) or GAMWORKS (under a delegated management contract). An average of US$ 2,200 are needed to equip a lower basic school classroom, and when furniture is added, the unit cost increases from US$ 14,500 to US$ 23,600. Table 3.15: : Unit Construction Costs per Classroom, by Level of Education and Source of Funding, 2008-10 CHAPTER 3 Dalasis Per Furnished Source of Level of Per Classroom * Management Classroom Funding Education Dalasis US$ Dalasis US$ LBE 505,982 18,740 558,869 20,699 AfDB DMC (GAMWORKS) *** SSS** 2,926,205 108,378 3,099,496 114,796 EDUCATION COST AND FINANCING BADEA LBE PCU Management 526,397 19,495 565,753 20,954 Child Fund LBE Framework Agreement (NGO) 533,451 19,757 591,451 21,906 Framework Agreement (NGO) 521,897 19,330 582,591 21,577 FTI LBE DMC (GAMWORKS) 565,240 20,935 637,488 23,611 LBE 325,475 12,055 392,558 14,539 GLF UBE PCU Management 384,091 14,226 441,591 16,355 BCS 379,456 14,054 436,956 16,184 UNICEF LBE PCU Management 416,667 15,432 474,167 17,562 Source: PCU-MoBSE. Note: * Includes management, latrine blocks and supervision fees if relevant (mainly for NGO and GAMWORKS management). ** Includes management, laboratories, a library, a canteen, toilet blocks, principal and junior staff residences, football and basket ball fields and supervision costs. *** DMC is a delegated management contract. Among the donors, UNICEF has the lowest unit costs because the agency doesn’t use GAMWORKS or NGOs to build classrooms and therefore doesn’t pay management fees. In recent years, only the government has built upper basic and basic cycle schools via PCU management. The unit cost of an unfurnished classroom is around US$ 14,000 for both levels. The African Development Bank (AfDB) financed the construction of two full senior secondary schools (including administration, laboratories, a library, a canteen, toilets blocks, principal and junior staff residences, and football and basketball fields). The unit cost per each complete furnished school is an average D 37.2 million and the unit cost per furnished 108 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) classroom is an average of US$ 115,000, or US$ 108,000 per classroom only. It should be noted that this amount includes the cost of principal and junior staff residences, explaining why it is so high. Notes 15 The same estimation methodology was applied for eighteen African countries with available data, based on similar household surveys. The full results are displayed in Annex Figures 3.2 and 3.3. 16 See Annex Table 3.1 for a cross-country comparison of the distribution of household spending 17 Higher education expenditure does not include The Gambia Hotel School budget. 18 Grant-aided schools are managed by school boards and the government provides the teachers’ salaries so that the fees are on par with government schools. 19 The scholarships are only for students enrolled in The Gambia College and The University of the Gambia. There are no specific criteria for their award. All students enrolled in these two institutions are entitled to apply. The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 109 CHAP TER 4 CHAPTER 4 INTERNAL EFFICIENCY AND LEARNING OUTCOMES 110 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) CHAPTER 4 INTERNAL EFFICIENCY AND LEARNING OUTCOMES The evaluation of education quality that is the main focus of this chapter will first examine the internal efficiency of the system by reviewing dropout, repetition and the factors affecting them. Secondly, it will review students’ learning outcomes as a measure of quality via national and sample-based evaluations and national examination results. The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 111 KEY FINDINGS 1. Pupils’ learning outcomes are generally very poor at all levels and deficiencies are apparent as of the first primary grades: • Early Grade Reading Assessment results show a very poor level of basic literacy skills in the early grades: Grade 3 students can only read 16 words per minute and their overall reading comprehension is also low, understanding barely half of what they read. After two years of schooling, 54% of Grade 2 pupils and 27% of Grade 3 pupils were still not able to read a single word. As a result, many children are not able to read to learn, but are still learning to read. The average consolidated score of 50 hides wide regional and socioeconomic variations. Regions 4, 5 and 6 underperform, with average scores of 45.5 compared with 62 in Region 1. Poorest pupils (average score of 48.5) also perform less well than their wealthiest peers (59), while girls (48.5) underperform boys (52). However, significant improvements did occur over the 2007- 09 period for most tests, thanks to the introduction of innovative pedagogical CHAPTER 4 measures in the interim. • Few students achieve the National Assessment Test minimum requirements. Success rates range from 45.7% for Grade 5 social studies to 19.5% for Grade 3 English. In addition to English, the situation is particularly worrying in Grade 5 math and sciences, with average pass rates of just 20%. INTERNAL EFFICIENCY AND LEARNING OUTCOMES 2. Postprimary results are scarcely better, and have barely improved since 2002: • 76% of candidates failed to obtain a single credit in any of the 4 core GABECE subjects (the end of upper basic level exam), and only 4% achieved credits in all 4. Results are poorest in math, with 7% of candidates obtaining a credit. Boys perform better than girls (72% and 81% did not obtain a single credit), and 86% of candidates in Regions 3 and 5 obtained no credits, against 71% for Region 1. • Although the Grade 12 final examination (WASSCE) results are improving, they are still far behind other WAEC countries. In math, just 3.2% of candidates achieved a credit (compared with 47% for Nigeria) in 2008/09. In addition, half failed to obtain a single credit and only 11% achieved credits in five or more subjects. Grant-aided and mission schools perform better than government and private schools: 20.2% of candidates get a credit in at least 5 subjects in the former against 5.5% for government school candidates and 9.1% of private ones. 3. The main factors negatively impacting scores are repetition, absenteeism, and class size. Those having a positive impact are the availability of textbooks, which have a positive impact on all subjects success rates and are by far the most cost-effective way to improve results, the electrification of schools, and improved teaching practices. Double-shifting interestingly has a positive impact on EGRA scores, while negatively affecting NAT and GABECE results. The inconsistent impact of double-shifting on primary level results calls for further analysis of current shifting practices. 4. Given the high priority given to religious education in some of the regions with the lowest enrollment rates, especially for girls, having madrassas that offer the official curriculum is an important asset. Therefore, a key policy recommendation is to translate all learning assessment instruments into Arabic. 5. Internal efficiency is generally good, and improves with successive levels. At LBE, 24.5% of resources are wasted on repetition and dropout, and 7.9 student-years are necessary on average to complete the six year cycle. UBE and SSE levels are more efficient still, with wastage of just 17.8% and 15.8%. The Gambia fares better than other SSA countries at all levels. Regardless of the level, inefficiencies are mainly due to dropout. Given the low level of learning outcomes, this situation appears to indicate that the Gambian education system must raise its standards, focusing internal efficiency on the quality of learning over and above the duration of individual schooling. 6. Repetition is just 5.6% at LBE, half the SSA average of 11%. It is similarly low for UBE, at 3.5% and SSE, at 4.2% (the SSA averages are 13% and 11.7%). Repetition decreases by grade in LBE (from 10% in Grade 1 to 2% in Grade 6), but increases with each grade in UBE (from 3% in Grade 7 to 5% in Grade 9). T he objectives of the education system are not limited to increasing school enrollment, but also to offer services of quality. Quality in education can reflect the level of resources allocation to the sector, but can also be measured by students’ learning outcomes. According to the latter approach, quality education would ensure that students acquire determined competencies and skills. However, this objective needs to be combined with the effective use of education resources. Indeed, quality education not only produces knowledgeable and capable graduates (reflected in good exam and assessment results); it produces an optimum number of them (reflected in low dropout), in the minimum number of years (reflected in low repetition). The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 113 Internal Efficiency at the Basic and Secondary Levels Analyzing student flows within a level and assessing the education system’s internal efficiency entails comparing the number of students who access the first year of the cycle with those who reach its final year in the imparted time frame. The system’s internal efficiency is affected by repetition because more years of schooling are required to achieve a given output (the completion of a level) than the optimum number, involving higher costs per output. It is affected by dropout because fewer students achieve a given output (the completion of a level), implying lower outputs per resources invested. As far as primary schooling is concerned, early dropout has further reaching implications than simple cost- effectiveness or the obtaining of a qualification: it is directly associated with illiteracy.20 Both, in different ways, imply the wastage of public resources. Given that dropout was examined in some detail in Chapter 2, this section will first look at repetition levels, and then measure the internal efficiency of both basic and secondary levels. CHAPTER 4 Basic and Secondary Level Repetition Repetition is not a major concern in The Gambia. Rates are globally low, at 5.6 percent for lower basic and 3.5 percent for upper basic. These levels are much lower than those observed in other countries in the region (See Figure 4.1 below). For the lower basic level, repetition is half the low income countries’ average, and at the upper basic level it is almost INTERNAL EFFICIENCY AND LEARNING OUTCOMES four times lower than the sample average. Despite this positive outlook, some special attention is required at primary Grade 1, which registers the highest percentage of repeaters, at 10 percent. This problem, often associated with students’ low preparedness for school, should however fade as preprimary schooling expands. 114 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) Figure 4.1: Percentage of Repeaters, for The Gambia and African Low-Income Countries, by Level, 2009 or LAY Percent Lower Basic Upper Basic Togo 24 Togo 32 Malawi Guinea Guinea-Bissau Burkina Rwanda Niger Guinea Benin Benin Mali Mali Senegal Uganda Guinea-Bissau Sample Average 11 Sample Average 13 Burkina Rwanda Sierra Leone Zambia Senegal Malawi Ghana Sierra Leone Zambia Ghana Gambia, The 6 Gambia, The 4 Niger Uganda Tanzania 2 Tanzania 2 0 5 10 15 20 25 0 10 20 30 40 Percent Percent Source: MoBSE/EMIS, 2009/10 for The Gambia; UNESCO-Pôle de Dakar, for other countries. The analysis by level and grade shows that repetition gradually decreases with each grade, both throughout lower basic, dropping from 10 percent in Grade 1 to just two percent in Grade 6, and throughout senior secondary, dropping from five percent in Grade 10 to three percent in Grade 12. In upper basic the trend is reversed however, and rises from three percent in Grade 7 to five percent in Grade 9. The repetition observed at Grade 9 could be linked to failure at the Gambia Basic Education Certificate Examination (GABECE). This peak is perhaps not observed at Grade 12 because candidates who fail the West African Senior School Certificate Examination (WASSCE) have the chance to resit the exam as private candidates, without repeating the school year. Figure 4.2: Percentage of Repeaters, by Level and Grade, 2009/10 Percent S 12 10.0 10 8 Percent 6 5.6 5.1 5.4 4.2 4 3.5 2.5 2.6 2.8 2 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 LBE 7 8 9 UBE 10 11 12 SSE Grades, and Level Averages Source: MoBSE/EMIS, 2009/10. The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 115 Internal Efficiency Dropout and repetition are neither beneficial to individuals, nor to society. They are a greater concerns still when considering the cost involved, which is all the more important in relative terms when public resources are limited. In this context, assessing the level of wastage of public resources derived from repetition and early dropout is particularly relevant. The internal efficiency coefficient (IEC) is the indicator used to assess the level of inefficiency and wastage due to disruption in the flow of students caused by dropout and repetition.21 Partial indicators can be derived to assess the proportions of wastage respectively attributable to repetition and dropout. Table 4.1: Internal Efficiency, by Level and Source of Wastage, 2009/10 Total and Partial Internal Efficiency Coefficients - Percent LBE UBE SSE IEC 75.5 82.2 84.2 Dropout-Related 80 85 88 CHAPTER 4 Repetition-Related 94 96 96 Years Required to Produce one Graduate 7.9 3.6 3.6 Source: MoBSE/EMIS, 2009/10 and authors’ calculations. Internal efficiency is generally good in The Gambia. The primary level IEC was 75.5 percent INTERNAL EFFICIENCY AND LEARNING OUTCOMES in 2009, which implies that 24.5 percent of public resources are wasted (See Table 4.1). This implies that 7.9 years of study are necessary on average for a student to complete the level, instead of the six years that would suffice under perfect efficiency conditions. Dropout is the main factor of wastage: the partial dropout efficiency indicator is 80 percent whereas the one related to repetition is 94 percent. This means that 20 percent of resources are wasted because of dropout, whereas only six percent are wasted on repetition. The system’s efficiency increases with each level. At the upper basic level the IEC is 82.2 percent, and it rises further to 84.2 percent at the senior secondary level. Here as well, dropout remains the greatest source of inefficiency in post-primary education. Combating dropout will be crucial to improve the overall efficiency of the Gambian education system. Compared with the sample used of countries with the same level of income, The Gambia is performing very well in terms of internal efficiency, considering that the country boasts IECs far above the average, at all levels of education (See Table 4.2). 116 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) Table 4.2: Internal Efficiency, for The Gambia and other African Countries, by Level, 2009 or LAY Internal Efficiency Coefficient - Percent LBE UBE SSE Benin - 64.0 78.0 Burkina Faso 68.6 59.2 64.3 Gambia, The 75.5 82.2 84.2 Guinea 72.8 76.8 74.5 Guinea-Bissau 53.9 66.6 88.5 Malawi 76.0 66.0 Mali 72.0 78.0 Niger 78.8 22.1 26.1 Rwanda 39.0 82.0 91.0 Sample Average 67.1 66.3 72.4 Source: MoBSE/EMIS, 2009/10 for The Gambia; UNESCO-Pôle de Dakar, for other countries. Quality and Learning Outcomes Quality in education can also be assessed on the basis of student learning achievements. This approach is favored over the one focusing on education inputs because what students actually learn in school is what ultimately matters, and is what the system will be held accountable for.22 This is not to say that education inputs and their use are not important. It is preferable however that they be examined not on the basis of generic norms, but according to their impact on learning outcomes, in relation to their cost. This cross- referencing of learning outcomes and costs is crucial to develop sound education policies. They are therefore discussed in Chapter 7. The assessment of learning outcomes in The Gambia includes formal examinations, continuous assessments, routine and ad hoc diagnostic tests, and other forms of curriculum- based assessment. This section relies on three different easily available tools to measure learning outcomes:23 (i) the adult literacy rate; (ii) two primary level assessments: the Early Grade Reading Assessment (EGRA) and the National Assessment Test (NAT); and (iii) two post-primary level national examinations: the Gambia Basic Education Certificate Examination (GABECE), and the West African Senior School Certificate Examination (WASSCE). Adult Literacy Learning Outcomes Literacy levels provide a first idea of the sustainable learning achievements an education system produces, considering that one of primary school’s main objectives is to ensure that students become fully literate. In this context, the number of formal years of schooling needed to produce sustainably literate individuals can be used as a measure of the quality The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 117 of the primary education system: the shorter the schooling required, the higher the quality of the system. A major constraint of the literacy analysis is that it is based on the ability of the adult population, and thus reflects the past quality of the education system, not present performance. Figure 4.3: Adult Literacy According to Schooling Completed, Selected Countries, 2000-0524 Percent 100% Rwanda Adult Literacy Rate (%) 80% Mozambique 60% Gambia, The 40% Mali Average CHAPTER 4 20% 0% 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Highest Grade Attained Source: MICS, 2000 for The Gambia; World Bank, 2011 for other countries, using 2000-05 household survey data. Note: Adult literacy here refers to those adults who can read without difficulty. The average is of 32 SSA countries. INTERNAL EFFICIENCY AND LEARNING OUTCOMES The current literacy analysis is based on the 2000 Multi Indicators Cluster Survey (MICS, 2000). It should be interpreted with caution as it is based on information as reported by interviewees (both men and women aged 15 years and above) about their literacy skills and abilities. It shows that after six years of schooling, barely 45 percent of the adult population were able to read without difficulty, a share considerably lower than the average of a sample of 32 Sub-Saharan African countries, of close to 70 percent (See Figure 4.3). This result highlights strong weaknesses in the past primary education system as far as basic learning outcomes are concerned. The result for Rwanda, that boasts a literacy rate of 98 percent, shows that it is possible to achieve lifelong literacy for the vast majority of students through six years of primary education (World Bank, 2011). Lower Basic Level Learning Outcomes With the gradual phase-out of the primary school leaving certificate over 2000-02,25 new learning assessment tools have been developed to inform policy on students’ learning achievements at the primary level. The EGRA was introduced in 2007, and the NAT in 2008.26 118 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) Early Grade Reading Assessment (EGRA) Results The EGRA consists of a sample-based nationally representative assessment designed to measure the most basic foundation skills for literacy acquisition in Grades 1 to 3 to inform the education sector on the system’s quality of instruction. The test, individually administered, consists of recognizing letters of the alphabet, reading simple words, understanding sentences and paragraphs, and listening comprehension. The first reading assessment was conducted in 2007 on 12,000 children from 40 schools selected through stratified and random methods. The sample covered 10 percent of lower basic schools nationwide. A second EGRA was carried out in 2009, using the same sample of schools (although not the same students), to evaluate the impact of the action taken on the basis of the 2007 results. Analyses of the 2007 and 2009 EGRA results are provided in Table 4.3. Box 4.1: Curriculum Development The development of a national curriculum is a major challenge for any nation. In the broadest sense, education systems and their curricula express a society’s self-image, and reflect its vision for achieving its development ambitions through its children and learners. The MoBSE/EMIS’s Curriculum Development Directorate involves The Gambia College, practicing teachers and subject experts in the development of curricula, syllabuses, teaching guides and textbooks. Orientation trainings are then organized for teachers and college lecturers to familiarize them with the rationale for the changes introduced. According to the 2004-15 education policy, curriculum review for basic and secondary levels should be ongoing. The curriculum responds to explicit learning objectives upon which assessments are based. The curriculum framework developed in 2009 focuses significantly on school agriculture, reflecting The Gambia’s “Back to the Land� philosophy. The structural reform of basic education initiated in 2000 involved a major curriculum reform. The basic education curriculum has been revised putting emphasis on the strengthening of the school-based assessment system and making it more relevant to children’s learning needs, focusing on the acquisition and development of generic skills. The basic education curriculum framework also provides guidelines on required teaching hours, teacher profiles and subject distribution, and guidance on how to design and develop teaching and learning materials. The implementation of the framework is expected to start in 2011 after the training of users (teachers, head teachers, senior teachers and other stakeholders). At the senior secondary level, teaching used to be based just on the examination syllabus; in 2008/09, the first curriculum was developed in collaboration with The Gambia Conference of Principals. The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 119 In 2009, Grade 3 students were able on average to correctly pronounce 41 percent of the phonemes (phoneme identification) and correctly name 46 letters per minute. Known to be two major building blocks for future fluency and comprehension, these performances are weak and ultimately translate into low levels of reading and comprehension skills. Indeed, on average Grade 3 pupils were able to read just 16 words per minute (words in context) and barely half of them were able to adequately understand the meaning of what they were reading, both being far below international benchmarks.27 After two years of schooling, 54 percent of Grade 2 pupils were still not able to read a single word, nor were 27 percent of Grade 3 pupils. As a result, many children are not able to read to learn, but are still learning to read. Those children face huge handicaps in later grades. As stressed by Gove and Cvelich, reading skills are indeed “self-reinforcing;� “poorer readers read about half as many words as good readers, thus getting half the amount of vocabulary practice and improving their reading skills at a slower rate.� Ultimately, poor readers will not be able to develop proper writing skills and become self-guided learners in other subject areas, affecting their schooling paths (Gove et al, 2010).28 CHAPTER 4 Table 4.3: : Mean EGRA Scores, Grade 1 and Grade 3 Students, 2007 and 2009 Mean/Percentage and Increase (Units of Standard Deviation) Grade 1 Grade 3 Increase Increase 2007 2009 2007 2009 (Significance) (Significance) INTERNAL EFFICIENCY AND LEARNING OUTCOMES Phoneme Counting (% of phonemes 23.1 31.4 0.3 (***) 32.2 43.4 0.4 (***) correctly identified) Phoneme Identification (% of 21.4 23.1 0.1 34.8 41.0 0.2 (***) phonemes correctly pronounced) Letter Identification (Number of 12.9 20.6 0.4 (***) 36.2 45.8 0.4 (***) correct letters / minute) Pseudoword Recognition (Number of 0.6 1.0 0.1(*) 2.2 4.7 0.3 (***) correct non-words / minute) Word Recognition (Number of correct 1.2 1.6 0.1 4.3 8.7 0.4 (***) words / minute) Words in Context (Number of correct 2.2 2.7 0.1 9.3 16.4 0.4 (***) words / minute) Reading Comprehension 9.9 18.9 0.4 (***) 30.6 49.3 0.6 (***) (% of correct answers) Listening Comprehension (% of 25.9 35.8 0.3 (***) 58.6 69.1 0.3 (***) correct answers) Spelling 3.0 3.9 0.1 12.1 33.9 0.8 (***) (% of correct answers) Source: EGRA data files, 2007 and 2009; authors’ computations. Note: The increase is computed using the standard deviation in the denominator to allow for normalized comparisons. *** Statistically significant at the 1% level; ** statistically significant at the 5% level; * statistically significant at the 10% level. 120 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) However, the 2009 reading assessment shows improvements in most indicators, for both Grade 1 and Grade 3 students. Improvements have been higher and systematic in Grade 3, the average increase being 0.4 units of standard deviation, against 0.2 units of standard deviation for Grade 1. The introduction of new pedagogical methods in 2007 seems to have had a positive impact on student learning achievements. The higher and significant improvements observed on Grade 3 students could be linked to the fact that over the period evaluated, they benefited from the pedagogical improvements introduced for two years, whereas Grade 1 students only benefited from one. The 2007 EGRA results, used to provide feedback on teaching practices, triggered a drastic methodological shift in in-service and initial teacher training, incorporating new approaches to the teaching of reading. Since 2007, about 4,000 teachers have been trained in EGRA teaching and assessment methods (focusing on the five foundational reading skills for Grades 1 to 3), including classroom teachers, senior teachers, head teachers and cluster monitors. Supplementary materials such as teaching guides and reading materials for pupils have also been reviewed and sent to schools. The Jolly Phonics approach to reading that focuses on the correspondence between phonemes and graphs was introduced. Disparities exist across gender, socioeconomic groups and regions, although they have tended to narrow over the 2007-09 period. Annex Tables 4.1 to 4.6 provide the EGRA scores disaggregated by gender, region and socioeconomic status (measured by household wealth). They highlight the following findings, for both 2007 and 2009: (i) Boys outperform girls in all test items, achieving a consolidated score of 51.9, against 48.5 for girls;29 (ii) Region 1 outperforms all other regions with a consolidated score of 62.4, whereas regions 4, 5 and 6 tend to lag behind with scores averaging 45.5; and (iii) Wealthier students outperform their poorer peers, with consolidated scores of 59.1 and 48.5 respectively in 2009. However, disparities within groups have dropped over the 2007-09 period, as shown by the improved parity indexes for most items (that are closer to one) and the higher percentage increases in the scores of the lower performing groups. This might mean that the innovative pedagogical measures have had a greater impact on the more disadvantaged groups. The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 121 Figure 4.4: Share of Students Who Could Not Read a Single Word, End of Grade 2 and Grade 3, Cross-Country Comparison, 2008-09 Percent Mali (Grade 2 French) 94 Uganda - Lango (Grade 2 English) 88 Mali (Grade 2 Bamanakan) 83 Uganda - Lango (Grade 2 Lango) 82 Mozambique (Grade 3 Portuguese) 57 Gambia, The (Grade 2 English) 54 Uganda - Central (Grade 2 English) 53 Uganda - Central (Grade 2 Luganda) 51 Haiti (Grade 2 French) 49 Haiti (Grade 2 Creole) 48 Ethiopia (Grade 3 Orromifa) 36 Honduras (Grade 2 Spanish) 29 CHAPTER 4 Guyana (Grade 2 English) 29 Gambia, The (Grade 3 English) 27 Kenya - Nyanza (Grade 3 Kiswahili) 25 Kenya - Nyanza (Grade 3 English) 19 Senegal (Grade 3 French) 18 Kenya - Central (Grade 3 Kiswahili) 13 Kenya - Central (Grade 3 English) 9 INTERNAL EFFICIENCY AND LEARNING OUTCOMES 0 20 40 60 80 100 Percent Source: Gove at al., 2010. Note: Grade 2 includes end of Grade 2 and beginning of Grade 3; Grade 3 includes mid-year and end of Grade 3. Countries’ EGRA results should be compared with caution because the evaluation process is customized in each country and the tests are sat in different languages. Nevertheless, a consistent pattern has been observed across countries: a considerable number of children are not able to read a single word at the end of Grade 2 or 3. The Gambia is no exception to this pattern (See Figure 4.4). In addition, Gambian students fare worse in most tests than their Senegalese counterparts (See Figure 4.5), which is of concern because Senegal is positioned in the lower half of countries in terms of international learning assessment program results, such as the PASEC, a programme on the analysis of education sectors in francophone countries. 122 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) Figure 4.5: Gambian and Senegalese EGRA Mean Results and Standard Deviations, by Item, 2007 Percent 100 Gambian-English Senegalese-French 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Phoneme Counting Phoneme Identification Letters Pseudowords Words Works in Context Written Comprehension Spoken Comprehension Orthography Others Chronological Age SES Phonemic awareness Reading (#Items per Minute) Comprehension Spelling Control (Percent correct) (Percent correct) (Percent correct) Variables Source: Copied from USAID, 2008, p17. Factors Affecting EGRA Learning Outcomes In order to deepen the analysis of quality based on EGRA results, multivariate analyses were performed using the ordinary least squares approach, to distinguish between factors that have an impact on the Grade 3 consolidated EGRA score and to assess their magnitude.30 Certain school or class related factors such as class size, teaching practices, teacher characteristics, pedagogical choices, the availability of teaching and learning materials, and so on depend on education policies. Others do not, despite affecting learning achievements. These include student characteristics like gender, age and socioeconomic background, and certain school characteristics such as location. Factors that have a significant impact on the consolidated EGRA score are presented in Table 4.4 below.31 Among the factors that have a positive impact on student learning, the following are worthy of special note: (i) Preschool attendance, be it in a government school or a madrassa, contributes to an average five point improvement in results. This is almost certainly due to the better state of preparation of children for school when they enroll. The government’s efforts to expand the preprimary level should be sustained in the light of this positive impact; (ii) The practice of double-shifting improves scores by 5.4 points. This result is somewhat counter-intuitive because double-shifting is often associated with reduced teaching time. However this practice in The Gambia assumes a variety of forms (Saturday classes, alternate shifts from one week to the other, teacher shifts for a same class), some of The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 123 which may not impair teaching time. A study of good practices in this area through school visits would be worthwhile; and (iii) Teaching practices based on student-teacher interaction improve results. Practicing reading in class improves scores by almost seven points, whereas encouraging or rewarding students when they do well improves their results by 3.7 points. Positive pedagogical approaches and attitudes toward students should be given special attention in pre and in-service teacher training given this positive impact on students’ achievement; the growing focus on child-centered teaching methodologies is a positive development in this regard, and should be further strengthened to ensure all teachers fully master early grade reading techniques and approaches (JDISM, 2010 and BESPOR, 2010).32 Table 4.4: Net Impact of Factors on Grade 3 Students’ EGRA Scores, 2009/10 Points Values Net Impact on (Mean / %) Score (Points)(1) CHAPTER 4 Initial EGRA Score (School Level, 2007) 48.6 + 0.59 *** Female (Ref. Male) 57.1 - 3.14 ** Double Shift (Ref. No Shifts) 50.4 + 5.44 *** Pupil to Teacher Ratio > 40 (Ref. PTR ≤ 40) 30.7 - 3.67 * Student has already Repeated a Year 18.7 - 4.44 *** Student has Attended Government Preschool 47.1 + 3.74*** INTERNAL EFFICIENCY AND LEARNING OUTCOMES Student has Attended Madrassa Preschool 21.9 + 5.75 ** Student was Absent over the Last Week 29.2 - 4.63 *** Student Practices Reading in Class 75.6 + 6.92 *** Student is Encouraged when Obtaining Good Results 64.1 + 3.69 * Source: EGRA data files, 2007 and 2009; authors’ computations. Note: *** Statistically significant at the 1% level. ** Statistically significant at the 5% level. * Statistically significant at the 10% level. EGRA scores were adjusted to obtain an average value of 50 and a standard deviation of 15. Variables included in the model but not found to be significant are: Schools’ location in urban areas, students’ age, the student household wealth index, students having books at home, students studying at home, students having eaten before going to school, teachers practicing lettersounds in class, students being encouraged to do better when underperforming, students being punished when underperforming. (1) The net impact refers to the isolated impact of the variable on EGRA scores, all other variables being held constant. On the other hand, four factors have a significantly negative impact on EGRA results: (i) Repetition is correlated with a decrease in performance by 4.4 points on average, in line with the conclusions of research on the subject.33 Furthermore, in addition to being costly, it often sends a negative signal to students and parents about a child’s ability, that in a context of weak demand for schooling might encourage dropout. Although repetition is limited in The Gambia, efforts to reduce it should be stepped up; 124 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) (ii) Absenteeism is the factor with the greatest negative impact on scores, of 4.7 points. By reducing teaching or learning time (when it applies to teachers and students respectively), absenteeism prevents the completion of the curriculum.34 Up to 10 percent of instruction time might be lost, without considering unplanned school closures, late entry and casual school holidays. This is of all the more concern that teaching time is already low by international standards, at 734 hours at best against a recommended 880 hours per year (Blimpo et al., 2010). In other words, Gambian official teaching time is almost 20 percent lower than the international recommended standard. Being a major correlate of learning outcomes, increasing instruction time and reducing absenteeism should be a priority for education policy makers.35 Effective classroom practices, such as keeping a daily attendance role and adapting the school calendar may help improve student attendance; whereas teacher absenteeism might be reduced through improved management practices at the school level, including close monitoring of teacher attendance by school heads (World Bank, 2011); (iii) Large class size (over 40 students per teacher) reduces performance by 3.7 points. Thirty percent of the classes in the sample used were of this size. Improving the coherence in the allocation of teachers among schools will greatly help to improve and harmonize pupil to teacher ratios, and optimize teaching conditions in favor of better results (See Chapter 7 on management for further details on teacher posting); and (iv) Female students score over three points lower than boys on average. This may point to the existence of discriminatory practices either at school or at home. Further analysis is required to better understand the issues at stake. National Assessment Test (NAT) The NAT is meant to provide policy makers with information on how children perform in lower basic education. More specifically, the NAT results aim to provide a national picture of learning achievements by Grades 3 and 5 in core subjects. At regional, cluster and school levels the results are analyzed to develop strategies to improve students’ performance. One of the strategies is to offer remedial classes for low performing schools and pupils. The NAT is sat every year by all students in Grades 3 and 5 in government, private and grant- aided schools.36 The test was first piloted in 2001, following the phase-out of the Primary School Leaving Certificate Examination, and was deployed nationwide in 2008. The MoBSE/EMIS has planned to introduce the NAT at Grades 8 and 11 in 2011 to better monitor learning achievements at the upper basic and senior secondary levels as well.37 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 125 Table 4.5: Share of Grade 3 and Grade 5 Students Achieving the NAT Result Minimum Requirement, by Subject and Gender, 2009/10 Percent Grade 3 Grade 5 Subject Male Female All Subject Male Female All English 19.3 19.7 19.5 English 29.1 29.1 29.1 Math 26.1 26.8 26.5 Math 20.1 19.0 19.6 Social Integrated 47.7 43.8 45.7 26.8 26.3 26.5 Studies Science Sciences 23.1 21.5 22.2 Source: NAT data file, 2010. Results for 2010 are summarized in Table 4.5 above (See Annex Tables 4.8 to 4.11 for the full results by gender and school ownership). They show that very few students reached the minimum requirement in all subjects, in both grades.38 The situation is particularly worrying CHAPTER 4 in English in Grade 3 and Math and Sciences in Grade 5, in which less than a quarter of students succeeded. Results are also poor in English in Grade 5, with only 29 percent of students succeeding. This raises concerns because it implies that students are being taught in a language they do not fully master, compromising their learning in other subjects. No significant differences between girls and boys were observed. INTERNAL EFFICIENCY AND LEARNING OUTCOMES Factors Affecting NAT Results Here again, multivariate analyses were performed, using a logistical model, to better understand what factors have an impact on NAT scores. Table 4.6 below presents the factors that have a significant impact on the percentage of Grade 5 students reaching the minimum requirement in English.39 Some school facilities and education inputs significantly improve the proportion of Grade 5 students reaching the minimum NAT requirement in English: (i) The availability of textbooks is found in many countries to be one of the most cost- effective ways of improving learning outcomes.40 In The Gambia, schools with one textbook per pupil have a success rate in English nine percentage points higher than schools with no textbooks. Chapter 7 on management will later show that textbooks in primary schools are in short supply, and incoherently allocated among schools. Improving this situation would positively affect student learning achievements. (ii) The electrification of schools is the second factor having a positive impact. Compared with schools that do not have electricity, the success rate of Grade 5 students in schools with electricity is 5.4 percentage points higher. One should be cautious in interpreting these results however, as they could be associated with schools found in wealthier zones, ultimately attracting students from wealthier families. 126 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) Table 4.6: Net Impact of Factors on the Percentage of Grade 5 Students Achieving the NAT Result Minimum Requirement in English, 2008/09 Percentage Points Values Net Impact on (Mean / %) Success Rate(1) Government School (Ref. Grant-Aided and Private) 85.7 - 7.4 *** Double-Shifting 29.4 - 6.1 *** Pupil to Teacher Ratio (per 10 additional students) 34.1 - 1.1 * Repetition Proportion (per extra 10 percentage points) 7.8 - 3.5 ** School has Electricity 31.6 + 5.4 ** Number of English Textbooks per Student 0.6 + 9.0 *** Source: NAT data file, 2009; EMIS, 2006/07-2008/09; authors’ computations based on Annex Table 4.8. Note: All other things being equal, the difference in the share of students reaching the minimum requirement in English in a school with no textbooks and one with one textbook per student is of 9 percentage points. *** Statistically significant at the 1% level; ** statistically significant at the 5% level; * statistically significant at the 10% level. Results are adjusted to obtain an average value of 50 and a standard deviation of 15. Additional variables included in the model, but not found to be significant are: the percentage of qualified teachers in school, seats per pupil, schools having a library, schools having water, and the number of latrines. (1) the net impact refers to the isolated impact of the variable on NAT results, all other variables being held constant. Four factors have significantly Box 4.2: The Teaching Language negative impacts on NAT results: The language of teaching is a core ingredient of (i) Government schools are less education quality. Although the 2004-15 education effective than private and policy advocates for the introduction of national grant-aided schools: the share languages both as a medium of instruction for of students achieving the Grades 1 to 3 and as subject from Grade 4 onwards, minimum requirement is 7.4 English remains the teaching language throughout percentage points lower. This basic and secondary education. Little progress has may be linked to student and been made toward the use of national languages in school characteristics that schools, mainly because of the lack of adequate teaching and learning materials. could not be grasped here. For instance, nongovernment It is however important to note that in 2010, a schools may attract students national language coordinator from the University of from higher socioeconomic The Gambia was hired to implement the national backgrounds which are often language program in schools, supported by social correlated with better results. linguists and language experts, and a team to No definite conclusions can develop curricula and teaching and learning materials in Wolof, Mandinka, Fula, Jola and Sarahule. therefore be drawn about the Materials developed for readers in Grades 1 and 2 effectiveness of schools on this are to be piloted in some schools in Regions 1 and 2 basis.41 Further investigation is over the 2011/12 school year. Implementation will required to better understand also include training for practicing teachers. The disparities in results by school pilot’s evaluation will prove very insightful for further type; use of local languages in early grades. The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 127 (ii) Double-shifting has a negative impact on learning outcomes, as the share of students achieving the minimum requirement is 6.1 percentage points lower than in schools with no shifts. This impact is the opposite to that of double-shifting on EGRA results. Although this is more in line with common belief (that double shifting, by reducing teaching time, has a negative impact on learning outcomes), further research into its mode of operation would provide a better understanding of which practices adversely affect teaching time;42 (iii) Repetition, as for EGRA results, negatively affects performance: a 10 percentage point increase in the percentage of repeaters translates into a 3.5 percentage point drop in the success rate; and (iv) Class size again negatively affects students learning outcomes, although this is less significant: 10 extra pupils per class results in the share of students achieving the minimum requirement dropping by 1.1 percentage points. There is room for improvement in this respect, by improving teacher allocation among schools, as CHAPTER 4 shown in Chapter 7. Similar regressions were run for math, with similar results, and sciences and social studies. The latter revealed very few significant factors affecting NAT results. The availability of seating and the existence of a library were the only new factors having a positive impact on performance. INTERNAL EFFICIENCY AND LEARNING OUTCOMES The seemingly counter-intuitive result of the lack of the teacher qualification’s impact on results is worthy of note. This situation could in fact be linked to the generally low level of primary teachers’ knowledge, whether qualified or not.43 Indeed, a recent evaluation performed on primary teachers to assess their level of Grade 6 knowledge in mathematics and English revealed very poor performance: the average score was 79 percent, with 68 percent of teachers scoring less than 75 percent. Barely three percent scored 95 percent and above. Whereas the average score of PTC holders was 81.6 percent, those with no training scored 73 percent.44 These results highlight the low content knowledge of a considerable number of teachers, including the qualified (Blimpo et al., 2010). The fact that most students entering PTC are among the poorer WASSCE performers also tends to lower the general level of teachers’ competencies.45 This situation further deteriorated with the practice of recruiting some PTC holders wishing to upgrade as upper basic and senior secondary teachers, ultimately depleting lower basic schools of their more qualified teachers. This practice was cause for all the more concern that competent qualified teachers are in greatest need at the lower basic level, which provides pupils with the foundation for core competencies. Finally, beyond the quality of teachers themselves, these observations raised the issue of the quality of teacher training (curricula, course structure, the quality of tutors, and so on). The ministry is well aware of the current low quality of its teaching force and has undertaken a series of actions to improve teacher quality. Among them is the set up of the HTC-Primary 128 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) to limit the drain of lower basic teachers to upper basic schools, the provision of in-service training such as the PTC-Extension programme targeting unqualified LBE teachers, the forthcoming e-learning programme to help teachers to improve their knowledge, the strengthening of the Gambia College through the revision of the main curricula and finally the establishment of an in-service training unit. Although this analysis is somewhat limited, given the initial data constraints identified, it does underline the fact that other factors that could not be captured by the current model specification can affect student results. Additional in-depth analyses on learning outcomes and improved tools to allow for such analyses are required at this point to suggest clear policy orientations. Cross-Country Comparison Figure 4.6 shows how The Gambia compares with other Sub-Saharan African countries in terms of primary students’ learning. It juxtaposes countries who participated in at least one standardized international learning assessment, such as the Monitoring Learning Achievement, the Southern African Consortium for the Monitoring of Educational Quality, or the PASEC.46 The data should be taken with caution given that in some cases they refer to assessments carried out a long time ago (2000 for The Gambia). However, the ranking of The Gambia on this scale confirms the general poor quality of lower basic education. Figure 4.6: Primary Student Learning Outcomes, in SSA Countries, LAY Africa Student Learning Index 70 63 60 Student Learning Index 50 46 40 40 30 27 20 10 0 Mozambique Mauritania Nigeria Malawi Benin Niger Zambia Chad Lesotho Gambia, The Congo, The Burkinaso Faso Senegal Mali Guinea Burundi Madagascar Uganda Zimbabwe SSA Average Togo Cameroon Côte d’Ivoire Tanzania Kenya Source: World Bank, 2011. Note: The Africa Student Learning Index is a composite of the literacy and numeracy scores obtained in the three learning assessment programs (MLA, PASEC, and SACMEQ), converted to a common scale. The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 129 Post-Primary Level Learning Outcomes There are two main types of examination in The Gambia for the post-primary cycles: (i) the Gambia Basic Education Certificate Examination (GABECE) which students sit at the end of Grade 9 and is used for both certification (as the final exam) and selection for entry into senior secondary; and (ii) the West African Senior Secondary Certificate Examination (WASSCE) which is the secondary cycle final examination, used to screen students for higher education admission, and sat upon completion of Grade 12. This latter exam is administered at the regional level. Participating countries include The Gambia, Ghana, Sierra Leone and Nigeria, and the results are also used to determine entry into higher education institutions. Both exams are administered by the West African Examinations Council (WAEC).47 The Gambia Basic Education Certificate Examination (GABECE) The GABECE was first introduced in 2003, when the Junior Secondary School certificate CHAPTER 4 was phased out.48 Students are required to take four core subjects (Math, English, Science and Social and Environmental Studies), and between three and five optional subjects. Final scores are based on candidates’ core subject grades and the two best grades obtained in the optional subjects. Figure 4.7: Number of GABECE Candidates and Share of Female Candidates, 2002/03-2008/09 Number and Percent INTERNAL EFFICIENCY AND LEARNING OUTCOMES 56% 24,000 20,670 54% 21,000 Share of Female Candidates 18,857 19,554 16,665 Number of Candidates 52% 18,000 50% 50% 15,000 48% 12,000 46% 9,000 44% 6,000 43% 42% 3,000 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 Source: WAEC, 2003-09. Transition to senior secondary depends on students’ performance in the GABECE. A cut-off mark is established every year by the MoBSE to determine eligibility for SSE admission based on the aggregate score.49 Students who achieve this mark are enrolled in Grade 10 in senior secondary schools. However, some private schools determine their own cut-off marks once results are made public. 130 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) The number of candidates sitting the exam has grown from 16,665 in 2002/03 to 19,554 in 2008/09 (See Figure 4.7). The slight decrease in the number of candidates between 2004/05 and 2007/08 is mainly due to a decrease in Grade 9 enrollment. The number of students sitting the exam, among potentiel candidates, has overall been stable at about 93 percent since 2004. Over the same period, the share of girls sitting the exam has increased from 43 percent to 50 percent, reaching parity. This is partly explained by more girls enrolling as a result of the government policy to support girls’ education. Analysis of Aggregate GABECE Results The share of students reaching the cut-off mark of 42 followed an upward trend until 2006/07, reaching 30 percent, but dropped sharply in 2008/09, to 22 percent. In 2002/03 girls slightly underperformed boys (only eight girls for every 10 boys passed the exam); since then the gender gap has steadily increased to the point that for every 10 boys reaching the cut-off mark, only seven girls do. This evolution raises some concerns; further analysis is needed to understand the underlying issues at stake. Regional disparities also exist: in 2008/09, the best scores were found in region 1 (26 percent reached the cut-off mark) followed by regions 2 and 3 (22 percent), way ahead of regions 4 and 5, where only 15 percent succeeded on average (See Annex Figure 4.1). Figure 4.8: Success Rate of GABECE Candidates, by Gender, 2002/03-2008/09 Percent 40 Male 35 33 Female 30 Success Rate 30 All 26 26 25 21 22 18 20 20 18 17 16 14 15 10 2002/03 2004/05 2006/07 2008/09 Source: WAEC, 2003–09. Note: The success rate refers to those students who reached the cut-off mark of 42. Analysis of GABECE Scores by Subject Students’ performance is poor, as shown by the low achievement in the four core subjects (See Figure 4.9 below).50 In 2008/09, 76 percent of candidates failed to obtain a single credit in any of the four core subjects, whereas only 3.8 percent achieved a credit in all four, a slight improvement on 2002/03, when the share was 1.5 percent. The change between 2002 and 2008 is slight. Boys perform consistently better than girls (See Annex Figure 4.2), 2 2 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 131 and in 2008/09, Region 5 systematically underperformed the other regions (See Annex Figure 4.3 and Annex Table 4.13). Figure 4.9: Distribution of Students According to Credits Obtained in the Four GABECE Core 2 Subjects, 2002/03 to 2008/09 Percent 100% 90% Credits in All 4 Subjects Percent 80% Credits in All 3 Subjects Credits in All 2 Subjects 70% Credits in All 1 Subjects No Credit in Any Subject CHAPTER 4 60% 2002/03 2004/05 2006/07 2008/09 2 Source: WAEC, 2003-09. Note: A credit includes all scores from A1 to C6. Mathematics is the core subject for which results are the poorest, with only seven percent obtaining a credit in 2008/09, against 12 percent in sciences, 13 percent in English and 16 INTERNAL EFFICIENCY AND LEARNING OUTCOMES percent in social and environmental studies. However, despite overall performances being erratic and very low, an improvement is observed in all subjects. Over the past six years, students achieving credits in math have increased from 2.5 percent to 7.1 percent, while those obtaining a credit in English have increased from 7.5 percent to 11.8 percent. Figure 4.10: Evolution of GABECE Success Rates, by Core Subject, 2002/03 to 2008/09 Percent Math 25 English 21 20 SES 19 16 16 Science 15 Percent 11 13 11 9 10 12 7 5 4 7 5 3 4 0 2002/03 2004/05 2006/07 2008/09 Source: WAEC, 2003–09. Note: SES are social and environmental studies. Scores from A1 to C6 are considered in the success rate. 132 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) Factors Affecting GABECE Results Multivariate analyses were performed to better understand what factors have an impact on GABECE success rates and assess their magnitude.51 Table 4.7 presents a recapitulation of the main factors at stake, their significance and impact. Table 4.7: Factors Affecting GABECE English Success Rates, 2008/09 Percentage Points Values Net Impact on (Mean / %) Success Rate (1) Pupil to Teacher Ratio (per 10 additional students) 31.0 - 1.9 ** Double-Shifting 33.3 - 6.8 *** Repetition (per extra 10 percentage points) 4.4 - 4.8 * School has a Laboratory 36.2 + 6.2 ** School has Electricity 68.6 + 7.0 *** Number of English Textbooks per Student 0.7 + 9.4 *** Source: GABECE, 2009 and MoBSE/EMIS 2006/07-2008/09. Based on model presented in Annex Table 4.14. Note: Scores of one to six from A1 to A6 are considered in the success rate. Laboratories are taken as a proxy for the quality of school equipment and inputs. All other factors being equal, the difference in the success rate between a school with electricity and a school without is 7 percentage points. *** Statistically significant at the 1% level. ** Statistically significant at the 5% level. * Statistically significant at the 10% level. Results are adjusted to obtain an average value of 50 and a standard deviation of 15. Additional variables included in the model, but not found to be significant are: the percentage of qualified teachers in school, schools having a library, schools having water, and the number of latrines. (1) The net impact refers to the isolated impact of the variable on GABECE success rates, all other variables being held constant. Results at national examinations administrated at the end of each cycle have the advantage of being available nationwide and represent a common test taken by all students of a given grade. The test-taking conditions and in the correction protocols are usually homogenous. The data do however present some general limitations: (i) they do not cover all competencies and learning achievements acquired throughout the cycle; (ii) they do not include information on students’ backgrounds and initial scores, because individual data are not available; and (iii) they do not allow for international comparisons. Nevertheless, this analysis highlights some important findings that can help to improve student learning achievements. Again, the availability of textbooks has a positive impact on results. Indeed, schools with one textbook per student can expect a 9.4 percentage point increase in the English success rate over a school with no textbooks. The electrification of schools and the availability of a laboratory also both have positive and marked impacts on GABECE pass rates in English, improving the share of successful students by seven percentage point and 6.2 percentage points, respectively.52 As is the case for primary learning achievements, higher pupil-to-teacher ratios have a negative impact on results, as do the practice of double shifting (the success rate is 6.8 percentage points lower than when no shifts exist) and repetition (the rate of those obtaining credits is 4.8 percentage points lower than when the percentage of repeaters is 10 percent higher). The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 133 The West African Senior School Certificate Examination (WASSCE) The WASSCE was introduced by the West African Examinations Council in 1998 to replace the General Certificate of Education (GCE) Ordinary and Advanced level examinations, as part of the educational reform programmes of member countries. The maiden edition was held in The Gambia in 1998. It is administered twice in a year, in May/June and November/December, which is meant to offer private candidates the opportunity to improve their grades. A unique feature of the WASSCE is that it incorporates school-based continuous assessment scores, with a 30 percent weighting. The WASSCE constitutes the university admissions exam, and is used to screen students for entry into other higher learning institutions.53 The examination syllabus consists of 36 subjects covering science, technical, vocational, languages, arts and general subjects. Every candidate must achieve satisfactory results in all the subject groups throughout the school year to be entitled to register for the final examination. The number of candidates registering for the WASSCE has increased over the decade, from CHAPTER 4 4,012 candidates in 2000/01, to 8,070 in 2008/09, in line with the upward trend in enrollment following the creation of more senior secondary schools. This increase has been fuelled by relatively more girls, who in 2008/09 represented 45 percent of the candidates, compared with barely a third in 2000/01. In effect, the number of girls registering for the exam has increased by a factor of 2.5, while the number of male candidates has risen by a factor of 1.7. The set up of the girls’ scholarship trust fund has certainly been decisive in this respect. INTERNAL EFFICIENCY AND LEARNING OUTCOMES Figure 4.11: Number of WASSCE Candidates and Share of Female Candidates, 1999/2000-2008/09 Number and Percent 52% 9,000 8,070 49% 8,000 Share of Female Candidates 7,383 Number of Candidates 46% 45% 7,000 43% 5,713 6,000 40% 4,734 5,000 4,012 37% 4,000 36% 34% 3,000 31% 2,000 199/2000 2002/03 2004/05 2006/07 2008/09 Source: WAEC, 2000-09. 134 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) Analysis of WASSCE Results WASSCE results are low, with half the candidates unable to achieve a single credit in any subject, and only 11 percent obtaining five credits or more, representing 885 students. Grant-aided schools perform much better than government and private schools. In 2009 they registered less failure (zero credits) and more credits in at least five subjects (20.2 percent, compared with 5.5 percent for government schools and 9.1 percent for private schools). Figure 4.12: Distribution of Students, by Number of WASSCE Credits and School Ownership, 2008/09 Percent 100% 80% Credits in 6-9 Subjects Percent 60% Credits in 5 Subjects Credits in 4 Subjects 40% Credits in 1-3 Subjects No Credit in Any Subject 20% 0% Public Grant-Aided Private Total Source: WAEC, 2003-09. Note: A credit includes all scores from A1 to C6. Regional disparities are significant however: Region 1 has the best performance (14 percent of candidates obtain at least five credits), followed by Regions 4 (10.4 percent) and 2 (8.4 percent); and Regions 6 and 3 have the highest shares of candidates who failed to obtain a single credit in any subject, of 69 percent and 64 percent respectively (See Annex Table 4.15). No marked gender differences in performance are recorded so far: in 2008/09, 12.3 percent of students obtained a credit in English. Boys performed slightly better than girls in math, 3.6 percent of whom achieved a credit, against 2.6 percent of girls. Compared with other WAEC countries, data on English and math results show that Gambian students’ performance is comparatively much worse (See Table 4.8).54 Although some significant improvements are apparent in English over the 2007-09 period, results are still far below the WAEC average. These poor results reflect the generally poor quality of the education system. The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 135 Table 4.8: WASSCE Success Rates in English and Math, WAEC Countries, 2007-09 Percent English Mathematics 2007 2008 2009 2007 2008 2009 Nigeria 30.2 35.0 41.6 46.8 57.3 47.0 Ghana 28.8 49.4 43.3 25.0 26.1 28.2 Sierra Leone 16.5 7.4 17.6 4.2 3.5 3.2 Gambia, The 6.5 3.1 13.1 3.3 2.6 3.2 Source: WAEC, 2009. Note: Scores of one to six are considered in the success rate. Summary of Findings with Policy Perspectives CHAPTER 4 Raising the quality of the education system as a whole is essential, given the general low level of learning achievements observed. However, the government has taken direct and positive steps by setting up new measurement tools and improving existing ones to adequately measure and track learning outcomes to ensure timely remedial measures are INTERNAL EFFICIENCY AND LEARNING OUTCOMES taken. This open and positive attitude is providing a favorable ground for policy interventions. Raising the quality of education will indeed require a multi-pronged strategy, as shown by the array of possible actions listed below. However, a major priority must be to rapidly tackle the low mastery of basic literacy skills at early grades, as they are a core prerequisite for further learning and have a considerable impact on children’s schooling patterns. In a perspective of policy formulation, the magnitude of the various factors found to have an impact on learning outcomes needs to be costed. Based on the factors that were found to have a significant impact in the statistical models presented earlier (Tables 4.4, 4.6 and 4.7), a series of measures that could help improve leaning outcomes at the basic education level have been formulated and presented in Table 4.9. 136 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) Table 4.9: Potential Measures to Improve Student Learning Achievements at the Basic Education Level, and their Related Impact and Cost Lower Basic Upper Basic Cost Cost Policies Impact Cost Impact Cost effectiveness effectiveness Improve consistency in teacher $ to $$ Low $ to $$ Low postings to ensure PTRs remain * * (1) to medium (1) to medium within targets Increase teaching time to the $ to $$$ Medium *** n.a. n.a. n.a. recommended annual 880 hours (2) to high Ensure repetition is used only as a last resort by setting up remedial *** $ High *** $ High classes Ensure all students have a textbook *** $ High *** $ High in each key subject Favor the use of the child-centered *** $ High n.a. n.a. n.a. teaching approach Encourage the enrollment of children $ to $$ *** High n.a. n.a. n.a. at the preschool level (3) Set up electricity $ to $$$ $ to $$$ *** Low to high *** Low to high in schools (4) (4) Source: Synthesis of Tables 4.4, 4.6 and 4.7. Note: * Low impact, ** medium impact, *** high impact; $ low cost, $$ costly, $$$ very costly. The level of impact has been assessed based on the results obtained from the regressions; the level of cost is based on estimated unit costs. n.a.: policies were not included in the models. Costs may vary according to the type of intervention: (1) costs may be very much inflated whether the incentive packages require the construction of teachers’ quarters or not, or if the recruitment of additional teachers is needed; (2) although improving teacher and student attendance records could reduce absenteeism at a fairly low cost, revising double-shifting practices that severely affect teaching time might be more costly, involving school organization changes (the construction of additional classes, the recruitment of teachers, and so on); (3) Community-based preschool attendance will be much cheaper than enrollment in the regular preschool system; and (4) The cost of the installation of electricity will vary considerably if generators, solar panels or grid electrification are involved. Some additional suggestions are worth pinpointing here: (i) The use of English as the main teaching language in primary education merits reflection, given that few students adequately master it. The use of local languages at early grades currently being piloted should provide very interesting insights; (ii) The effectiveness of the incentive package to attract and retain teachers in remote areas and schools should be evaluated and revisited if necessary, as its cost-effectiveness is still not certain whereas PTRs have a significant impact on learning achievement; (iii) The reliance on double-shifting should be analyzed further given that it covers many different practices that make its impact on learning achievements unclear; The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 137 (iv) Further analysis of girls’ underperformance would help to set up adequate remedial measures; (v) Regularly assessing learning achievements in primary schools with relevant national and internationally comparable tools will be necessary to get better insights on potential education policy leverages: • Literacy benchmarks at early grades should be set up to allow teachers and parents to adequately monitor pupils’ achievements and weaknesses and to set up remedial measures on time and track progress; • The current NAT design should be improved by including a pre- and post-tests, or by using a state-of-the art evaluation methodology; • The Gambia would benefit strongly from joining one of the regional standardized assessments, such as the PASEC or the SACMEQ, to clearly position itself with respect CHAPTER 4 to other countries; • Establishing school and local level quality monitoring mechanisms could be beneficial, such as the use of school record cards; • Efforts to include madrassa students in all national tests (by first translating the tests into Arabic) should be prioritized, given the increasing role played by madrassas in INTERNAL EFFICIENCY AND LEARNING OUTCOMES national schooling; and (vi) More analyses are required on classroom and school learning activity. Indeed, the way classes are handled by teachers and the way schools are managed are known today to be key factors affecting quality (See PASEC work). Teachers’ pedagogical and academic skills also need to be better understood given their poor level of knowledge and skills. As seen with the EGRA experience, providing teachers with relevant and practical teaching techniques, combined with written lesson plans and teaching materials and books are crucial to improve early grade students’ reading skills, which are the basic foundation for future learning. Making sure that these ingredients are in place will be crucial to improve the overall quality of the education system. 138 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) Notes 20 Indeed, evidence shows that a minimum of 6 years of formal primary schooling is required to ensure an individual’s long-term sustainable literacy. 21 The IEC is obtained by dividing the number of student-years (the optimum number of years necessary to complete a level multiplied by the number of students enrolled at that level) by the number of years of schooling actually required for the cohort to complete the level (taking repetition and dropout into account). 22 Quality is often assimilated to the level of education resources and means and what they directly achieve such as the pupil to teacher ratio, the coverage of teacher training and the quality of school buildings. This approach is often chosen more due to the lack of comparable data on learning achievements than for its intrinsic value. 23 Given that most other tests including ad hoc diagnostic tests and continuous assessment tests are not systematically monitored, they are not covered in this chapter. 24 Data are different from those presented in Table 5.1 because (i) both men and women are included here; and (ii) they are based on the MICS, 2000 (as opposed to the MICS, 2006 for Table 5.1). 25 The Primary School Leaving Certificate Examination (PSLCE) used to be used to select entry into upper basic education. It has been totally phased out following the expansion of upper basic levels in the late 1990s. 26 A first pilot national assessment was introduced in 2001, when the system was eliminating the primary school leaving certificate examination, covering a sample of 25 percent of LBE students. It was introduced nationwide in 2008. 27 To understand what one reads, one needs to be able to read fluently. This is measured by the number of words that can be read in a minute. The general benchmark is 60 words per minute by the end of Grade 2. The DIBELS (Dynamic Indicators of Basic Early Literacy Skills) benchmark for a median child at the end of Grade 3 in the United States is 90 words per minute in English (Piper, 2010). At the end of Grade 3, a child should be able to understand at least 80 percent of what they read (Gove et al., 2010). 28 A study conducted in Senegal shows that among the factors influencing the primary completion rate, a child’s success in Grade 2 has the greatest impact, even greater than household wealth (Glick and Sahn, 2010). 29 In order to ease comparisons among different groups (gender, region, socioeconomic status), a consolidated score based on the different test items was computed for 2009, adjusted to obtain an average value of 50 and a standard deviation of 15. 30 Such analyses intend to grasp the net effect of each factor, assuming all other variables are constant. Studies have demonstrated that a student’s level at the beginning of the school year is a key determinant of his/her learning achievement. Unfortunately, this information is not readily available in EGRA data. The overall 2007 score by school was therefore used as a proxy. 31 Annex Table 4.7 presents the results of the entire model. 32 Child-centered teaching approaches should be combined with written lesson plans, systematic teaching material and book development and ongoing professional development for teachers to ensure maximum impact. In addition, setting literacy benchmarks at different grades would help teachers and parents to better monitor student progress. 33 Indeed, many studies have found that repetition, in addition to being a costly measure both for the individual and the education system, does not lead to the improvement of learning outcomes. See Annex Note 4.1. 34 29 percent of students in the sample had been absent at least once during the week preceding the interview. The Whole School Development and School Grant Programs impact evaluation (Blimpo et al., 2010) found student absenteeism rates of 25 percent on the day of the survey and an average of 37 percent over five random days. Teacher absenteeism was six percent over five random days, a low rate compared to other countries in the region. The regular school visits by cluster monitors are believed to have helped improve teacher attendance (World Bank, 2007). 35 It is widely recognized that teaching time is a key correlate of learning outcomes, especially for disadvantaged children who may have very few learning opportunities outside school (Millot and Jane, 2002 and Abadzi, 2006, cited by World Bank, 2011). 36 Madrassas do not take part in the assessment. The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 139 37 Some criticisms have been voiced against the NAT, indicating that the tests are “too difficult for students and seem to have been designed with discrimination at higher levels of achievements in mind,� that “the tests are not sufficiently sensitive to the range of students’ actual achievements,� do not cover all the curricula taught (JDISM, 2010), and that cross-year comparisons are not possible due to changes in the protocol from one year to another. 38 The minimum requirement is defined as a minimum score of 24 out of 60 in Grade 3 subjects, and a minimum score of 32 out of 80 in Grade 5 subjects. 39 Annex Table 4.12 presents the full regression results. 40 It is recommended that each student have a textbook (World Bank, 2011). 41 A comparison of results with entry grade pupil scores would give an indication of the impact of teacher, classroom and school characteristics. Their unavailability severely limits the analysis here. 42 Average teaching time is shorter for afternoon (674 hours) than morning shifts (784 hours). Students enrolled in afternoon shifts will ultimately be at disadvantage, receiving 100 hours less teaching than their peers (Blimpo et al., 2010). 43 This also raises some issues regarding the quality of the pre-service training, which might be too theoretical. 44 It would be interesting to regularly test teachers’ competencies in parallel to students’ ones to better understand the CHAPTER 4 issues at stake and promote relevant policies aimed at improving teaching quality. 45 Indeed, the admissions criteria for the PTC are less demanding than those of the HTC or senior secondary access (See Chapter 7). 46 For more detailed information on the methodology used to create the figure, see World Bank, 2011, Chapter 5. 47 Until now madrassa students do not sit any of the WAEC exams/tests. They have internal examinations, validated by their own schools, and usually go to Arabic-speaking higher learning institutions. Consultations with WAEC and the Curriculum Research Evaluation and Development Directorate are underway to explore ways to align madrassa exams INTERNAL EFFICIENCY AND LEARNING OUTCOMES with the WAEC ones, starting with the NAT (scheduled for 2012). Synchronization of syllabi at the primary level is also underway. At the upper basic level, madrassa students are planned to be given the opportunity to sit the 4 GABECE core subjects. 48 This used to be staged in upper basic schools to enable candidates to continue to senior secondary schools in which they could then take their GCE O’ Levels or continue to other higher education institutions. 49 Usually the cut-off mark is set at an aggregate score of 42, out of a maximum of 54: for each of the six subjects, scores of one to six are a credit, seven or eight are a pass, and nine is a fail. Actual aggregate scores vary from 6 (the best score in all subjects) to 54 (equivalent to six fails). 50 In WAEC terminology, scores vary from one to nine: A1 is ‘Excellent’, B2 is ‘Very Good’, B3 is ‘Good’, C4 to C6 are a ‘Credit’, D7 and E8 are ‘Passes’ and F9 is a ‘Fail’. Here a credit is understood to include scores from A1 to C6. 51 The full regression model results are gathered in Annex Table 4.14. 52 Similar regressions were run for math, social and environmental studies and sciences. The availability of textbooks has a positive impact on all success rates; the pupil-to-teacher ratio and double shifting have negative impacts on social and environmental studies’ success rates, and the pupil to teacher ratio has a negative impact on the math success rate. 53 The minimum entry requirement for university is usually 5 credits, including English and math. 54 English and math tests are the same in all WAEC countries, which provides a sound basis for comparison. 140 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 141 CHAP TER 5 CHAPTER 5 EXTERNAL EFFICIENCY 142 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) CHAPTER 5 EXTERNAL EFFICIENCY This chapter first analyzes the net impact of education and training on socioeconomic development and human development variables, presenting a cost-benefit analysis by level. Secondly it examines the relevance of education to the labor market, analyzing job insertion prospects, earnings outcomes and social and private rates of return by level. The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 143 KEY FINDINGS 1. The net impact of education on human development is notable. Many fertility and maternal and child health indicators improve: the average age at first childbirth rises, the birth interval increases, and women have fewer children; the probability of at least one child dying drops. Gains are greater in urban areas, regardless of the availability of local health services. The probability of poverty also drops considerably. In spite of these positive impacts The Gambia ranks just 28th out of 35 SSA countries in terms of the impact of primary education on human development, which may be related to the comparatively low quality of education. 2. Upper basic education is the most cost-effective cycle for improving human and social development. One year of UBE accounts for 8.3% of the total net impact achieved by the maximum number of years of study (primary education through Higher Education), whereas one year of LBE, SSE or Higher Education respectively account for 6.3%, 5.7% and 6.7%. 3. The distribution of the work-force by status and sector shows that 88% of CHAPTER 5 employed 15-59 year-olds are employed in the informal sector. The younger generation (25-34 year-olds) has more difficulty finding work, with an unemployment rate of 7%, compared with 3% for the older generation (35-59 year-olds). The formal sector is slightly more developed (12.5%) than in other SSA countries (10%). Agriculture accounts for 55% of informal sector employment, well below the SSA average, of 72%. 4. Half of the Gambian population is uneducated, in line with the SSA average. A much EXTERNAL EFFICIENCY lower proportion (13%) have done only primary (the SSA average is 28%), and conversely larger shares have completed basic education (20%, against 11%), senior secondary (8%, against 5%) and TVET and higher education (5%, against 3%). 5. Education’s relevance to the labor market is low. Only 43% of higher education graduates find formal work, and 13% are unemployed, twice the national average. Unemployment is below the national average for the uneducated and those with LBE, probably more willing to accept low-paid informal jobs, and Gambians with TVET training have the best employment prospects out of 25 African countries (95% are employed), although their earnings are lower than in other countries. 6. Annual average income increases with each successive level of education attained. Higher education is the level that leads to the largest additional earnings, representing a 101% increase on SSE graduate earnings. The private rate of return on investment in education ranges from 0% for LBE, to 11% for higher education. Compared with other countries, The Gambia has lower rates of return in lower basic, similar rates in secondary school and TVET, and markedly higher returns on higher education. 7. Even if the results presented in this section are interesting, the available data did not enable the detailed analysis of how the different areas of university study and types of TVET program compare in terms of employment and earning prospects for graduates. To provide relevant inputs for education policy making purposes in this respect, it is imperative that tracer studies of university and TVET graduates be conducted. These will lead to specific recommendations in terms of which areas of study and types of programs should receive higher subsidies and incentives (for instance through more advantageous student grants) to contribute more significantly to the country’s economic growth through better job insertion and productivity. Education and Human Development This section describes the net impact of the different levels of education on human development in The Gambia. It is crucial to underline the importance of capturing the net impact of education (where the impacts of other factors are controlled) and not the gross impact (where the impacts of other factors and the impacts of education are combined). Indeed, factors such as income, area of residence and health services have impacts, as education has, on human development variables. Additionally, those factors are usually correlated with the education an individual has received: they are interdependent (See Figure 5.1). Then, to be sure to assess the net impact of education (and not include that of other interdependent factors) the appropriate methodology is to run econometric models capturing the impact of education on human development behaviors, using the other factors as control variables.55 Figure 5.1: The Education, Income and Human Development Triangle Education Income, Living area, Health Services Human Development Source: Authors’ elaboration. The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 145 The analysis is based on data from the third Multi Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS III). It provides statistically valid estimates at household and individual levels for a number of indicators related to the well-being of women aged 15 to 49 years and children under five years old.56 The link between schooling and a number of social outcomes, particularly for women (age at first childbirth, knowledge of HIV/AIDS, child mortality, female genital mutilation) have been computed after controlling the impacts of other factors such as income, area of residence, age and the availability of local health services. The analysis outlines the contribution of each grade and level of education to human development outcomes. Table 5.1 shows the summary of the results. Table 5.1: Simulated Net Impact of Education on Various Social Behaviors, 200657 Highest Grade Attained Average LBE UBE SSE HE None 2 4 6 7 9 10 12 14 16 Fertility Woman's Age at First Childbirth 20-29 Years *** 18.3 17.8 18.1 18.5 18.8 18.9 19.2 19.4 19.7 20.0 20.3 CHAPTER 5 40-49 Years * 19.7 19.5 19.7 19.9 20.1 20.2 20.4 20.5 20.7 20.9 21.1 15-49 Years *** 18.7 18.3 18.6 18.9 19.2 19.4 19.7 19.9 20.2 20.6 20.9 Average Birth Interval (Months) *** 36.9 35.5 37.8 38.9 39.5 40.6 41.2 42.3 42.3 43.4 44.5 Total Number of Live Births at the Time of the Survey (15-49 Years) *** 2.7 3.0 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.8 Maternal & Child Health EXTERNAL EFFICIENCY Use of Tetanus Toxoid during Pregnancy (%) ** 90.2 89.4 90.6 91.3 92.0 92.3 92.9 93.2 93.7 94.2 94.7 Assistance at Delivery (%) *** 53.8 51.7 55.0 58.2 61.4 63.0 66.0 67.5 70.3 73.0 75.6 Probability of at least One Child Dying (%) *** 35.0 35.7 33.2 30.8 28.5 27.3 25.1 24.1 22.2 20.3 18.6 Genital Mutilation of Daughters (%) * 65.1 67.5 66.7 65.8 64.9 64.5 63.9 63.2 62.3 61.4 60.4 HIV/AIDS Knowledge Score (/12) *** 9.7 9.4 9.6 9.8 10.0 10.1 10.3 10.4 10.6 10.8 11.0 Probability of Literacy 58 (%) *** 26.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 15.5 54.8 98.1 99.7 100 100 100 Probability of Being among the 40% Poorest Households (%) *** 36.2 45.4 43.7 41.6 27.4 25.9 21.5 15.4 10.8 8.9 4.1 Source: Authors’ calculations based on MICS, 2006 data. Note: *** Statistically significant at the 1% level; ** statistically significant at the 5% level; * statistically significant at the 15% level. 146 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) Education has a strong net impact in almost all social behaviors analyzed.59 In terms of fertility, all three indicators presented in Table 5.1 are clearly affected by education: (i) The average age at first childbirth of uneducated women aged 20 to 29 years was 18 years, whereas with 16 years of education it was 20 years. The trend for all women aged 15 to 49 years is similar, increasing from 18 years for those with no education to 21 years for those with higher education, all other things being equal; (ii) The interval between two consecutive births is estimated to be longer as women’s level of education increases. This phenomenon is slightly more marked for the senior secondary and higher levels; and (iii) The Gambian fertility rate is very high. Uneducated women aged 15 to 49 years had at the time of the survey already given birth three times on average.60 Although lower basic has an almost insignificant impact, the number of births drops by 0.7 by completion of upper basic, 0.9 with complete secondary, and 1.2 with higher education, reaching an average of 1.8 children (all other things being equal).61 Educated women are more likely to adopt beneficial attitudes toward their health and that of their children: (i) The likelihood of seeking assistance of a skilled health professional at childbirth increases slightly for those having completed lower basic, from 51.7 percent for the uneducated to 61.4 percent, and considerably for women with 16 years of education, to 75.6 percent, all other things being equal; (ii) Although the average probability of losing at least one child is 35 percent, the variation by level of education is significant. Uneducated women have a 35.7 percent likelihood of losing one child on average, whereas mothers with basic education have a 25.2 percent chance, and the rate drops to 18.6 percent for women with higher education, all other things being equal; and (iii) The incidence of female genital mutilation follows a similar pattern, although the variation is slighter, from a 67.5 percent likelihood of daughters of uneducated mothers undergoing this practice, to 60.4 percent for those whose mothers have 16 years of education, all other things being equal. Women account for nearly 60 percent of people living with HIV, a proportion that has increased steadily since 1990 (UNAIDS, 2008). It is generally accepted that the most important prerequisites for reducing the prevalence of HIV are greater awareness, information on how the virus is transmitted and accurate knowledge of prevention strategies. The MICS survey findings show that although women’s knowledge of HIV/AIDS is generally good (as reflected in the number of correct answers given to 12 questions) the The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 147 knowledge of those with primary education (10 correct answers on average) was less comprehensive than that of women with secondary or higher education (reaching 11 correct answers), all other things being equal. One of the most important outcomes expected of education is undoubtedly literacy, especially for the primary cycle. The MICS survey evaluated women’s’ reading skills on the basis of short sentences in English and the main local languages. The results indicate, as was to be expected, a strong positive correlation between education and literacy: all other things being equal, the likelihood of those never having attended school being literate is nil. At the end of primary it is just 15.5 percent, but reaches 98 percent by the end of basic education (the rural rate is only marginally lower than the urban rate) and 100 percent by the end of secondary school. Education is also highly associated with poverty.62 The likelihood of living in the 40 percent poorest households is 45 percent for the uneducated, but drops by 18 percent for the population with primary education to a probability of 27 percent, and by a further 23 percent for those with 16 years of education to a probability of just four percent, all other things being equal. CHAPTER 5 The econometric analysis did not find the impact of education on some other variables to be statistically significant. These include antenatal medical consultations, giving vitamin A to newborn babies, and the use of antimalarial medication or mosquito nets for children under five.63 This does not necessarily mean that education has no impact on these behaviors, but that the statistical models used were not able to demonstrate the existence of a net effect. The absence of a statistically significant impact of education on malaria EXTERNAL EFFICIENCY related variables could indicate that the curricula’s current design is not effective in changing people’s behavior in this respect. Cross-Country Comparison of the Social Impact of Primary Education The social impact achieved by the Gambian primary education system is lower than that achieved by most Sub-Saharan African countries (See Figure 5.2). With an index of 85.8, The Gambia ranks barely seventh out of 36 countries, and its score is one standard deviation below the average.64 This result may be related to the findings of Chapter 4 that underline the low quality of student learning that produces a low cognitive impact. 148 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) Figure 5.2: Impact of Primary Education on Human Development, for 36 SSA Countries, 2007 or LAY Standardized Index 140 130 120 100 100 76 86 80 60 40 20 0 Madagascar Swaziland DRC Equatorial Guinea Guinea-Bissau Senegal Ganbia, The Gabon Rwanda Sierra Leone Zimbabwe Burundi Malawi Tanzania Niger CAR Togo Uganda Lesotho Ghana Zambia SSA Average Namibia Angola Côte d’Ivoire Ethiopia Guinea Chad Cameroon Burkina Faso Sudan Mali Benin Nigeria Kenya Sao Tomé Mozambique Source: Calculations based on DHS/MICS/CWIQ household surveys including 17 social indicators (World Bank, 2010) Comparison of Outcomes by Level and Cost-Benefit Analysis Given that each level involves different costs, evaluating the cost-effectiveness of the impact of each level of education on social behavior will offer policy makers and households better information to make the most appropriate decisions in the light of their socioeconomic needs. The analysis is based on mothers’ education in particular, because of its multidimensional benefits (See Table 5.2 below). Basic education accounts for about 63 percent of the total social impact of education.65 Lower basic in particular makes the highest contribution to most of the social indicators presented in Table 5.2, and accounts for more than a third of the total impact. The primary level has a particularly strong impact on poverty reduction and maternal and child health indicators. The results also indicate that on average, higher education has a greater social impact (accounting for 20 percent of the total), than senior secondary school (accounting for 17 percent of the total). To fairly compare the respective social impacts of each level, the number of years of schooling of each should be taken into account.66 The upper basic grades achieve the greatest impact, equivalent on average to 8.3 percent of the total per year of schooling, whereas at the lower basic, senior secondary and higher levels one year of schooling accounts for 6.3 percent, 5.7 percent and 6.7 percent of the total social impact respectively (See Table 5.2). For policy purposes, it is helpful to relate the estimated impacts to their respective costs, in order to assess the cost-efficiency of each cycle in terms of achieving changes in behavior. The upper basic level appears to be the most cost-efficient, with an efficiency index of 0.47, The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 149 followed closely by lower basic, with an index of 0.45. Thus basic education is socially considerably more efficient than senior secondary (index of 0.23) and higher education is comparatively cost-inefficient (index of 0.04). This clearly indicates that The Gambia should continue to improve access to basic education to achieve better social and human development returns. Table 5.2: Distribution of the Social Impact of Education, by Level and Type of Behavior, 2006 Percent LBE UBE SSE Higher Age at First Childbirth *** 38 19 19 25 Fertility Total Number of Live Births at the Time of the Survey 38 19 19 25 Birth Interval 29 29 14 29 Medical Assistance At Childbirth 41 19 18 22 Maternal and Use of Tetanus Toxoid during Pregnancy 44 17 19 19 Child Health Probability of at least One Child Dying 42 19 18 21 Genital Mutilation of Daughters 45 27 7 21 HIV/AIDS Knowledge Score 38 19 19 25 Literacy Probability of Literacy 16 83 2 0 CHAPTER 5 Poverty Probability of Being among the 40% Poorest 44 14 26 16 Average Social Impact for the Level 38 25 17 20 Average Social Impact for one Grade 6.3 8.3 5.7 6.7** Public Recurrent Unit Cost per Grade (Dalasis) * 1,389 1,784 2,454 14,913 Efficiency Index = Impact / Cost x 100 0.45 0.47 0.23 0.04 Source: Authors’ calculations based on MICS, 2006 data. Note: * Public unit costs are computed for public schools/institutions only (See Chapter 3). ** The annual social impact is based EXTERNAL EFFICIENCY here on 3 years of higher education. *** Computed on women aged 40-49 years. Reading Note: Table 5.2 provides the proportion in which each additional level of education contributes to the total impact, based on Table 5.1. For the example of the probability of at least one child dying: (i) the total impact is 17.1%, the difference between the 35.7% probability of an uneducated mother losing at least a child and the 18.6% probability for a mother with higher education; the impact of LBE is 7.2%, the difference between the probabilities for an uneducated mother (35.7%) and one with primary education (28.5%). Therefore, LBE accounts for 42% (7.2 / 17.1) of the impact. Cross-Country Comparison of the Social Impact by Level The contributions to social outcomes of the various levels of education in The Gambia are broadly similar to those of Sub-Saharan (See Figure 5.3). The relative social impact of lower basic education in The Gambia is equivalent to the SSA average, at 47.6 percent approximately. The difference lies in the respective contributions of upper basic and senior secondary: the former is 2.8 percent lower for The Gambia than the SSA average (31.2 percent against 34.0 percent), while the latter is 3 percent higher (21.3 percent against 18.3 percent). 150 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) Figure 5.2: Distribution of the Social Impact of Education, by Level, The Gambia and SSA Average, 2010 Percent 47.5% 31.2% 21.3% The Gambia 47.7% 34.0% 18.3% SSA Average 0 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Percent LBE UBE SSE Source: Table 5.2 for he Gambia; World Bank, 2010 for the Sub-Saharan African Average. Note: Due to data comparability issues, higher education is not included, and the total social impact has been redistributed over the primary and secondary levels. Relevance of Education to the Labor Market The human capital development model is based on the hypothesis that individuals believe that human capital is their most valuable asset, recognize that education is the avenue to achieve it, and are primarily motivated to do so by their prospective future earnings. Similarly, government invests in education to achieve a competent work-force that will contribute to socioeconomic development. These goals are only achieved when education is relevant to a country’s production system. This section examines the relevance of The Gambia’s education and training system to its labor market. The study is based on information on labor market outcomes including activity by sector, employment and unemployment, and earnings. The individual level data used in this section is drawn from two recent household surveys: the Core Welfare Indicator Questionnaire survey of 2008 (CWIQ) and the Poverty and Social Impact Analysis of 2009 (PSIA). Both surveys are used to estimate the distribution of the population by education levels and by employment status. The PSIA has the advantage of including a detailed employment section on main and secondary activities, with detail by industry, occupation, type and amount of income earned, and intensity of each activity. When information was available in both the PSIA and the CWIQ, the results presented are the average of the two. 3 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 151 Distribution of the Population by Employment Status On average, 87 percent of the Gambian population is active, including both the employed and the unemployed looking for a job (See Table 5.3). There is a slight difference of four percent between the two age groups considered, which is due to a greater proportion of younger Gambians being enrolled as students, thanks to the recent increase in access to the higher levels of education (See Chapter 2). A vast majority of the employed population aged 15 to 59 years is employed in informal jobs:67 only 13 percent have formal jobs, a proportion that tends to increase marginally with age, reaching 15 percent for those aged 35 to 59 years. This indicates that the formal sector has yet to take off in terms of job creation, further supported by the finding that the younger generation has more difficulty to find a formal job than the older one. Table 5.3: Distribution of Employment, by Status, Type of Job and Age Group, 2008/09 Percent 15-59 Years 25-34 Years 35-59 Years Formal Jobs 8.6 11.3 12.9 CHAPTER 5 Government 4.4 5.4 7.4 Private 4.2 5.9 5.5 Informal Jobs 60.1 67.2 73.2 Agricultural 33.1 33.5 39.4 Nonagricultural 27.0 33.7 33.8 Total Employed 68.8 78.5 86.2 EXTERNAL EFFICIENCY Unemployed/Jobseekers 5.1 6.2 2.4 Student/Inactive 26.1 15.3 11.4 Total 100 100 100 Source: Average of CWIQ, 2008 and PSIA, 2009 data. Agriculture still accounts for 55 percent of informal employment on average, despite the fact that the younger population is increasingly working in other sectors, partially as a result of the progressive rural to urban shift of the informal sector. Informal agricultural employment effectively represents 46 percent of all jobs for the group aged 35 to 59 years, and 43 percent for the group aged 25 to 34 years. The adult unemployment rate (the share of those aged 15 to 59 years that are unemployed in the active population) is close to five percent. It is noticeable that the younger generation has considerably greater difficulty in finding employment however: seven percent of active people report to be looking for a job, against only three percent of their older peers. Despite the relatively high prevalence of both informality and the agricultural sector in The Gambia, these rates are in fact lower than the averages for neighboring countries (See Table 5.4 below). The formal labor market is indeed slightly more developed in The Gambia, 152 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) representing 12.5 percent of jobs, than the Sub-Saharan African average, of 10 percent, and informal agricultural employment is 17 percent lower. On the other hand, informal nonagricultural employment is 14 percent higher in The Gambia than the SSA average. Table 5.4: Distribution of the Employed Adult Population, by Status and Type of Job, 2008/09 Percent The Gambia SSA Average Formal Jobs 12.5 10.0 Government 6.4 5.0 Private 6.2 5.0 Informal Jobs 87.5 90.0 Agricultural 48.5 65.0 Nonagricultural 39.3 25.0 Total Employed 100.0 100.0 Source: Average of CWIQ, 2008 and PSIA, 2009 data for The Gambia; World Bank for Sub-Saharan African Average. Note: The figures include the whole 15 to 59 years age group, according to the available comparable data. Distribution of Human Capital by Education Level Having discussed the composition of the labor market, it is important to analyze the current composition of human capital in The Gambia, to provide a first indication of the relevance or mismatch of the education system’s output to the structure of the labor market. Figure 5.4: Distribution of the Adult Population, by Highest Education Level Attained, The Gambia and SSA Average, 2008/09 Percent 51.8% 28.8% 10.6% 5.1% 3.6% SSA Average 53.7% 13.2% 20.4% 7.6% 5.1% The Gambia 0 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% No Education LBE UBE SSE TVET and Higher Source: Average of CWIQ, 2008 and PSIA, 2009 data for The Gambia; World Bank for Sub-Saharan African Average. Note: Includes the 15 to 59 years age group. TVET and higher education are presented together due to the fact that in The Gambia, most TVET programs enroll students after completion of senior secondary, and there is no clear separation of the two subsectors. A The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 153 More than half the adult population (54 percent) has not received any education, a level likely to be a hindrance to productivity and economic growth, regardless of the labor market’s needs. The main skills requirement of the predominant informal sector (both agricultural and nonagricultural) is for human capital with at least lower basic education, to ensure minimal productivity.68 However, only 13 percent of the adult population has lower basic education as the highest level ever attained and a further 20 percent have upper basic education as the highest level attained (See Figure 5.4 above). This joint proportion of 33 percent is lower than the 60 percent of the population working in the informal sector, suggesting a potential shortfall of basic skills for the sector, of 45 percent. The formal (more modern) sector is more reliant on skills acquired during senior secondary education and above. A total of 12.7 percent of adults has reached senior secondary, TVET or higher education. This proportion is higher than the 8.6 percent of adults with formal jobs, implying that job insertion issues are likely to exist for the better educated population if the formal sector does not expand. CHAPTER 5 By Sub-Saharan African standards, The Gambia’s uneducated population is only slightly larger, at 53.7 percent, compared with an average of 51.2 percent. However, the proportion of Gambians having attended lower secondary (upper basic) or above is considerably more important, at 33.1 percent, against 19.3 percent for the average of neighboring countries. Job Insertion Perspectives by Education Level EXTERNAL EFFICIENCY In order to further analyze the external efficiency of the education system in terms of its relevance to the labor market and individual employment perspectives, it is necessary to cross the distribution of the population according to employment status with the distribution of human capital by education level, effectively obtaining a computation of individuals’ employment status according to the highest level of education achieved. This analysis will be complemented by performance related information such as earnings and rates of return in the next sections. Logically, individuals with no education or only having completed lower basic are mainly employed in informal jobs (92 percent and 85 percent respectively). Their unemployment rates of three and six percent are below the national average of seven percent, probably because they are more disposed than individuals with higher levels of education to accept low paid informal jobs, out of necessity and for sustenance (See Figure 5.5 below). The share of those with higher levels of education having found a formal job is much lower: only 43 percent of those who attended TVET or higher education and only 22 percent of those who attained senior secondary are in formal employment. Of the individuals having completed senior secondary, an inordinately large proportion is employed in the informal sector (65 percent). This points to the low external efficiency of these subsectors, in that 154 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) the skills produced by TVET and higher education programs are a poor quantitative and qualitative match to labor market needs. Conversely, it underlines the weak capacity of the formal sector to absorb higher education graduates through new job creation. The unemployment rates of these more highly qualified individuals are almost twice the national average, at 13 percent. Individuals having completed an intermediate level of education (upper basic) face the highest probability of unemployment of all, at 15 percent; however, their chances of finding employment in the formal sector, at 26 percent, are about three times greater than those of individuals having abandoned education after the primary level, and are indeed higher than those of individuals having completed senior secondary. This is most likely explained by the increase in the reservation wage with each level of education.69 Individuals having 4 completed senior secondary expect better salaries and therefore are less likely to find a job that matches their expectations. Figure 5.5: Employment Status of the Active Adult Population According to Highest Education Level Attained, 2008/09 Percent Average 12 81 7 TVET and Higher 43 44 13 SSE 22 65 13 UBE 26 59 15 LBE 9 85 6 No Education 4 92 3 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Employed (Formal) Employed (Informal) Unemployed Source: Average of CWIQ, 2008 and PSIA, 2009 data. Note: Adults here include those aged 15 to 59 years. Cross-Country Comparison Notwithstanding the above, the job insertion prospects of Gambian individuals having received technical and vocational training are very good compared with those in other Sub- Saharan African countries (See Figure 5.6 below). This is likely to be due to the fact that TVET graduates accept lower-paid jobs, just for the sake of subsistence. For the older generation (35 to 59 years), The Gambia in fact offers the best prospects of 25 countries: 98 percent are employed in both the formal and informal sectors, compared with 88 percent The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 155 on average for African countries with comparable data. The employment prospects of the younger generation (25 to 34 years) are also comparatively good in The Gambia, that is the fourth most promising country in this respect, and outperforms the Sub-Saharan average by 14 percent. Figure 5.6: Employment Prospects (Formal and Informal) of Adults with TVET, 2008/09 Percent Age 25-34 Age 35-39 100 98 88 91 80 77 Percent 60 40 20 0 Chad Guinea Congo CAR Senegal Côte d’Ivoire Cameroon Togo Sierra Leone Mali SSA Average Burkina Faso Mauritania Benin Ghana Ethiopia Mozambique Gambia, The Lesotho Rwanda Uganda CHAPTER 5 Source: Average of CWIQ, 2008 and PSIA, 2009 for The Gambia; World Bank for the other countries. The formal employment prospects of individuals with higher education are considerably less encouraging however, both in real and comparative terms (See Figure 5.7). Only 45 percent of the younger university graduates are employed in the formal sector, 12 percentage points below the Sub-Saharan average of 57 percent. Although 55 percent of the older generation EXTERNAL EFFICIENCY is in formal employment, the gap with the other countries is wider, being 18 percentage points below the SSA average, of 73 percent. These figures highlight the acute difficulty the formal sector has to absorb university graduates in particular, and suggests the need to analyze in greater detail, with tracer studies for instance, the fields of study whose graduates have most difficulty in finding formal employment. Figure 5.7: Formal Job Insertion Prospects of Adults with Higher Education, 2008/09 Percent Age 25-34 Age 35-39 100 80 73 Percent 60 55 57 45 40 20 0 Guinea Congo Côte d’Ivoire Guinea-Bissau Togo Mali Benin Gambia, The Mauritania Cameroon CAR Sierra Leone Senegal Rwanda Madagascar SSA Avergae Ghana Ethiopia Uganda Zambia Lesotho Burundi Burkina Faso Chad Malawi Mozamique Source: Average of CWIQ, 2008 and PSIA, 2009 for The Gambia; World Bank for the other countries. 156 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) Earnings Performance by Education Level Unsurprisingly, annual income (regardless of whether unemployment risks are taken into account) increases according to the highest level of education completed. Average annual income ranges from D 8,301 for uneducated employed individuals to D 59,276 for those employed that have higher education. When the unemployed population is taken into account in addition to the employed population, the respective pay levels drop to D 8,178 and D 51,555 (See Table 5.5).70 Higher education is the level that generates the most additional earning power over the previous level: university graduates earn just over twice the average income of individuals having completed secondary school. Attending upper basic also makes a significant difference in earning returns over attending lower basic; in the former case individuals earn 63 percent more on average than in the latter. Table 5.5: Adult Average and Expected Annual Income, by Highest Education Level Attained, 2009 Dalasis Average Annual Expected Income Income Mark-up Income of the - with Risk of over Previous Employed Unemployment Level (%) No Education 8,301 8,178 n/a LBE 11,893 11,242 37 UBE 21,088 18,354 63 SSE 33,291 25,646 40 TVET 37,364 31,940 25 Higher 59,276 51,555 *101 Source: PSIA, 2009. Note: Includes individuals aged 15 to 59 years. * Higher education is compared with SSE. Cross-Country Comparison Gambian earnings are lower on average than those of other African countries for individuals with no education, basic education, technical training, or higher education (See Figure 5.8 below).71 In the case of TVET, the lower earning range (the lowest of all countries but one) nuances the comparatively good national performance in terms of job insertion. It is likely that TVET graduates have to accept jobs even when the salary proposed is far below their expectations. In other words, they tend to accept jobs below their qualifications. In the case of individuals with senior secondary school, earnings in The Gambia are similar to the average. The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 157 Figure 5.8: Average Income of the 25-34 Age Group, by Level of Education, 2006 or LAY Unit of GDP per Capita 12 Mali Mauritania Benin Average Units of GDP per Catipa 10 Burkina Faso Congo Gambia, The 8 6 4.4 4 2.4 2.8 2.7 2 1.8 2.1 1.6 0.9 1.2 1.2 0.5 0.8 0 None LBE UBE SSE TVET Higher Highest Level Attained Source: PSIA, 2009 for The Gambia; CSRs for other countries. CHAPTER 5 Rates of Return by Education Level Rates of return capture the cost-benefit ratio of education in terms of costs on the one hand, and earnings on the other. They are a proxy for the impact of education on economic growth. In a nutshell, the private rate of return of an education level is the ratio of an individual’s additional income (over that earned with the previous level) and of the additional private cost occurred. Social rates of return are higher because they use the same income EXTERNAL EFFICIENCY information but include public costs in addition to private costs.72 This analysis helps establish whether the private and public investments in education are beneficial in terms of earnings (and ultimately reducing poverty) and if so, to what extent. Gambian rates of return (both private and social) increase with each level of education, with the exception of TVET whose rates of return are only 2 percent, as for upper basic education (See Table 5.6). The rate of return of lower basic education is null due to the fact that the additional earnings obtained by someone having attended LBE over someone with no education do not compensate the unit costs (public and/or private) of schooling at this level. Once again, this result should be related to the poor quality of learning in primary, as described in Chapter 4. Higher Education shows higher rates of return. These indicate that, in spite of the job insertion issues identified earlier, investment in higher education pays higher dividends in terms of people’s earnings. The private return, at 11 percent, is significantly higher than the social return of 7 percent due to the fact that higher education receives high government subsidies. 158 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) Table 5.6: Rates of Return on Education, The Gambia, Benin and Congo, by Level, 2009 Percent The Gambia Benin Congo Private Social Private Social Private Social LBE 0 0 4 3 3 3 UBE 2 2 1 1 3 2 SSE 3 3 9 7 4 2 TVET 2 2 2 2 3 2 Higher 11 7 5 3 4 1 Source: PSIA, 2009 and Chapter 3 (unit costs) for The Gambia; CSRs for other countries. Compared with the two other countries, The Gambia has lower rates of return in lower basic, similar rates in secondary school and TVET, and markedly higher returns on higher education. This may be associated to the fact that the cognitive impact (learning achievement) of the Gambian lower basic education system is low (see Chapter 4). The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 159 Notes 55 See Annex Note 5.1 for a description of the methodology used for assessing the impact of education on human development. 56 Econometric models were used to analyze the data in order to establish the relationship between education and a number of human development variables at the individual level. Logistic regressions were used for binary outcomes, using dummy variables, and the ordinary least squares approach was adopted for continuous variable outcomes. 57 The average figures are simple descriptive statistics of the different phenomenon according to the highest grade of education achieved. All other figures are the results of econometric models identifying the simulated net impact of education with other variables held constant (gender, age, area living, income level, health facilities). For instance, the simulated net probability of using tetanus toxoid during pregnancy for a woman with higher education is 94.7%. This rate is for a simulated individual with the same age, area of residence, gender, income level and access to health services as an average Gambian. 58 Data are different from those presented in Figure 4.3 because (i) they relate only to women; and (ii) they are based on the MICS, 2006 (as opposed to the MICS, 2000 for Figure 4.3). 59 Annex Figures 5.1 to 5.12 present the detailed results of the analysis, by area of residence. 60 These figures present a somewhat biased picture however, as many women will have more children later in their life. For example, uneducated women aged 49 years give birth 6.7 times on average. 61 Women aged 49 years having completed higher education give birth 4.8 times on average. CHAPTER 5 62 See Annex Note 5.2 for the definition of poverty used for the analysis. 63 These variables were therefore not included in Table 5.1. 64 A cross-country comparable index was computed for 36 Sub-Saharan African countries to assess the impact of primary education (based on 6 years of schooling) on 17 human development variables (World Bank, 2010). The results were adjusted to obtain an average of 100 and a standard deviation of 15. 65 The total impact is the value added of higher education compared with no education at all. 66 As described in Chapter 2, The Gambia’s education system comprises six grades of lower basic education, three grades EXTERNAL EFFICIENCY of upper basic education, and three grades of senior secondary school, followed by higher education. 67 The International Labor Organization, defines the informal sector in terms of company characteristics and informal employment in terms of job characteristics. In this analysis, because data were collected at the household level, the latter concept, of informal employment is used. Therefore informal employment comprises all informal jobs, whether performed in the formal sector, the informal sector, or household production. Income estimates are also primarily based on employment income. Annex Note 5.2 provides the specific definitions of formal and informal employment used in the CWIQ and PSIA surveys. 68 International evidence suggests that having at least primary education ensures minimal productivity by increasing the likelihood of literacy. This, for instance, increases the likelihood of understanding how fertilizers are used, which improves farming productivity. 69 The reservation wage is the lowest wage at which somebody would accept a job. 70 For calculation purposes it is assumed that the unemployed have no income. 71 Comparable data for this age group was only available for Mali, Mauritania, Benin, Burkina Faso, and The Congo. 72 See Annex Note 5.3 for a detailed explanation of the rates of return calculation methodology. 160 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 161 CHAP TER 6 CHAPTER 6 EQUITY AND DISPARITIES Photo : © Alpha Bah 162 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) CHAPTER 6 EQUITY AND DISPARITIES The first section of this chapter examines enrollment patterns in basic and secondary education, by gender, area of residence, and wealth, comparing the situation of the extreme groups in each case. It also provides a diagnosis by region and district of the respective weights of supply and demand factors in explaining school nonattendance.73 The second section analyzes equity in the distribution of public education resources by income, gender, and location. In the process, two inter-related equity issues will be addressed: (i) does each child benefit from equal schooling opportunities regardless of gender, location and family wealth? and (ii) does public education spending benefit each group equally? The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 163 KEY FINDINGS 1. The analysis of equity and disparities in the Gambian education system shows that: • Gender disparities are virtually inexistent for lower and upper basic enrollment, although a slight disparity exists as of upper basic completion, carried through to senior secondary, which is completed by only 25% of girls, against 32% of boys. • Disparities by area of residence are more marked, and exist throughout the education system: there are no more rural children in upper basic than urban children, whereas the rural population is 62% of the total. • Poverty is the most discriminatory factor, and disparities related to wealth increase with each level: only 3% of the poorest quintile complete secondary school, against 38% of the wealthiest quintile. 2. When combined, only 1% of the poorest rural girls complete secondary, against 43% of the richest urban boys. Most of the former drop out during primary: 60% access Grade 1 but only 15% reach Grade 6. 3. Regional disparities are also important. The further East, the lower the access and CHAPTER 6 completion rates. The situation in Regions 5 and 6 is particularly worrying: the primary completion rates are only 24% and 18% respectively. Region 6 is furthermore characterized by acute upper basic under enrollment, of just 14%. 4. There are also significant enrollment variations among districts: in Region 3, basic enrollment levels vary between 53% and 107%. These variations reflect a complex mix of supply and demand issues, which should be considered in policy making, providing EQUITY AND DISPARITIES more teachers and classrooms where supply is insufficient, and sensitizing village heads and religious chiefs and raising incentives where demand is low. • The districts that combine below average supply and a level of enrollment below expectations face both schooling supply and demand issues. This group includes: Falladu East, Central Baddibu, Nianija, Falladu West, Upper Saloum, Jarra Central, Kombo North, Upper Baddibu, Jokadu and Niamina East. • The districts whose enrollment is below expectations despite education supply being above average specifically face a demand issue. This group includes: Upper Niumi, Sami, North Dankunku, Kiang East, Niani, Lower Saloum, Foni Jarol, Foni Kansala and Foni Bitang Karanai. • The districts where enrollment is higher than expected despite supply being below average mainly face supply constraints. It would be appropriate to increase the supply of education in these districts to increase enrollment. This group includes: Kantora, Kanifing Municipal Council, Wulli, Sandu, Jarra East, Jarra West, Foni Bondali, Kombo South and Foni Brefet. • The districts that have a higher level of education supply and a level of enrollment in line with or higher than expected face no major issues of supply or demand. This group includes: Banjul, Jangjangbureh, Lower Baddibou, Kiang Central, Kiang West and Niamina West. 5. The distribution of public education resources in The Gambia is still inequitable but among the least inequitable in Sub-Saharan Africa: 31% of public education expenditure benefits the 10% most educated (those who study the longest), against 41% for the subregion on average, and 69% is spent on the 90% least educated. 6. The analysis of the appropriation index shows that the wealthiest students consume eight times more public education resources than the poorest, urban dwellers benefit from three times more resources than their rural counterparts, and boys and girls benefit equally from public education spending. T he issue of equity in education is of crucial concern. Firstly, because the achievement of Education for All necessarily involves the implementation of an inclusive education system, without any form of discrimination. Secondly, because if education constitutes one of the priority axes in all poverty reduction and social equity strategies, it is only logical that guaranteeing an Education for All should be an important element. Finally, beyond explanations based on social justice concepts (that everyone should have equal chances), the search for equity in education also responds to an economic effectiveness objective, given that an inequitable system cannot guarantee that the most capable individuals are those that reach the higher levels. Ensuring equity entails implementing measures aimed at reducing existing disparities in education access, retention, and learning at all levels of the system that are not related to an individual’s intrinsic characteristics such as gender, family background and residence. Disparities in learning outcomes are analyzed in detail in Chapter 4 on quality. Enrollment Inequalities Table 6.1 provides the distribution of the population aged 5 to 24 years by gender, location, and income quintile, for each education level. Three main observations can be made about the data contained in the table: The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 165 (i) For each of the social dimensions considered, there are enrollment disparities. For example, there are no more rural children in the upper basic level than urban children; however the total population comprises a much larger rural population (62 percent, against an urban population of 38 percent). Similarly, youth from the wealthiest quintile represent half of those enrolled in senior secondary school, although they only constitute around 20 percent of the total population; (ii) These disparities are generally present throughout the education system, starting at the lowest levels, although they deepen very noticeably at the higher levels. For instance, the share of urban children is 39 percent in lower basic, which is proportional to the urban share of the overall population, of 38 percent. However it is disproportionately high at 50 percent for upper basic and 71 percent for the senior secondary level; and (iii) Gender disparities are weak. Disparities according to the area of residence, and especially those according to family income, are much more marked. At the senior secondary level for example there are 1.3 times more boys than girls, but four times more urban children than rural children, and more than 14 times more youth from the highest income quintile than from the lowest.74 Table 6.1: Distribution of the School-Aged Population (5 to 24 Years), by Level, Gender, CHAPTER 6 Area of Residence and Income Quintile, 2006 Percent Share of the Level of Education Population Unenrolled LBE UBE SSE HE Gender Boys 49 45 48 52 56 51 EQUITY AND DISPARITIES Girls 51 55 52 48 44 49 Area of Residence Urban 38 28 39 50 71 76 Rural 62 72 61 50 29 24 Income Quintile Q1 (The poorest) 20 27 18 10 3 1 Q2 20 22 22 20 10 5 Q3 20 22 20 19 15 8 Q4 20 17 22 24 22 16 Q5 (The wealthiest) 20 12 19 27 50 70 Relative Representation Boys / Girls 1 0.85 0.98 1.12 1.34 0.85 Urban / Rural 1 0.63 1.03 1.67 4.01 0.63 (Q5) / (Q1) 1 0.43 1.05 2.55 14.50 0.43 Source: Authors’ calculations on the basis of MICS, 2006. Reading note : Boys account for 49 percent of the population aged 5 to 24 years, however they represent 52 percent of those aged 5 to 24 years at the upper basic level. Boys are 1.12 times ((52/48)/(49/51)) over represented at the upper basic level compared with girls, for the population aged 5 to 24 years. 166 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) Gender Disparities in Schooling Patterns The representation of schooling profiles disaggregated by gender provides some insights on potential disparities that might arise between boys and girls. Indeed, the transversal schooling profile provides the cumulative evolution of students as they progress through the education system. Figure 6.1 shows that access rates are fairly equitable in terms of gender for most of basic education (Grades 1 to 9). A slight inequality appears at the end of the basic cycle (seven percent more boys access Grade 9 than girls) and remains constant during senior secondary. At this level, the completion rate is 32 percent for boys against 25 percent for girls. Figure 6.1: Access Rate, by Grade and Gender, 2009/10 Percent 95.2 100 92.4 75.2 80 67.0 55.4 Percent 74.3 60 68.2 33.2 62.0 40 31.8 Female 39.0 20 Male 25.3 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Grade Source: Authors’ calculations based on MoBSE/EMIS data and corrected demographic data (Chapter 1). Figure 6.1 sheds some light on how gender disparities evolve throughout the basic and secondary cycles, indicating disparities at the key stages of the schooling path (access, retention, transition) and the related gender ratio that embodies the disparity at each level. Data are gathered in Table 6.2 below. In The Gambia there is quasi gender parity in terms of retention at the lower basic level, whereas upper basic and senior secondary level retention gender indexes, of 0.88 and 0.94 respectively, indicate a slight imbalance in favor of boys (See Table 6.2). The transition rate between levels lower basic and upper basic is in fact slightly favorable to girls, with gender ratio marginally higher than one (1.03 ). It is slightly favorable to boys between upper basic and senior secondary with a gender index of 1.01. The different policies set up by the MoBSE to favor girls’ education may have been effective in ensuring that girls have equal access to school, at all levels (CCA, 2011 and UNDAF, 2011).75 In addition, the latest youth study has revealed that boys are more likely to be involved in work (solely, or in parallel with schooling) than their female peers, especially in rural zones, ultimately having a negative impact on their schooling (World Bank, 2010g). The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 167 Table 6.2: Gender Disparities in Schooling Patterns, 2009/10 Percent Girls Boys Girls / Boys Intake 92.4 95.2 0.97 LBE Retention 80.4 79.0 1.02 Completion 74.3 75.2 0.99 LBE-UBE Transition 91.8 89.0 1.03 Intake 68.2 67.0 1.02 UBE Retention 81.2 92.7 0.88 Completion 55.4 62.0 0.89 UBE-SSE Transition 60.0 62.9 0.95 Intake 33.2 39.0 0.85 SSE Retention 76.1 81.4 0.94 Completion 25.3 31.8 0.80 Source: Authors’ calculations based on MoBSE/EMIS data and corrected demographic data (Chapter 1). Disparities According to Area of Residence Disparities according to the area of residence are more significant than according to gender, in terms of access to education. A simulation of the probabilities of access to different CHAPTER 6 education levels according to location shows a significant inequality in favor of urban areas (See Figure 6.2). At first glance, the profiles suggest decreasing imbalances between urban and rural dwellers throughout their schooling career, ranging from 31 percentage points for Grade 7 (the probability of access is 68 percent in urban areas, and 37 percent in rural areas) to 21 percentage points for Grade 12 (the respective access probabilities are 30 percent and 9 percent). EQUITY AND DISPARITIES Figure 6.2: Access Probability, by Grade and Area of Residence, 2006 Percent 100 91 90 80 66 68 70 61 60 Percent 51 50 37 39 40 30 30 26 30 Urban 20 Rural 13 9 10 0 1 6 7 9 10 12 Grade Source: Authors’ calculations based on MICS, 2006. 168 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) In relative terms however, this variation becomes more significant, and increases with successive education levels. The urban to rural odds ratio thus drops from 0.73 for lower basic access to 0.30 for senior secondary completion, showing a steady decline through education levels, and indicating that rural children are three times less likely to complete secondary education than their urban counterparts (See Table 6.3). The estimated figures underline that the differences are first generated by lower basic retention, of 55 percent in rural areas, compared with 75 percent in urban areas. They are then most accentuated by the gap in transition rates between upper basic and senior secondary, of 50 percent and 75 percent respectively, and by senior secondary retention, where a difference of nine percentage points divides children by their area of residence. The imbalance in terms of the transition between upper basic and senior secondary is greatly explained by the lack of supply of senior secondary schools in rural areas. The reasons for the retention differences, especially for lower basic, include the need for rural children to engage in productive activities (whether domestic or not), putting their schooling at risk. This need is all the stronger as children become teenagers, when the opportunity and direct costs of staying at school tend to exceed the benefit associated with additional schooling (World Bank, 2010g).76 However, more analysis is needed to better grasp the underlying issues, especially related to school supply and quality issues. Table 6.3: Location Disparities in Schooling Patterns, 2006 Percent Rural Urban Rural / Urban Intake 66.0 91.0 0.73 LBE Retention 55.3 75.0 0.74 Completion 37.0 68.0 0.54 LBE-UBE Transition 82.1 89.7 0.92 Intake 30.0 61.0 0.49 UBE Retention 87.9 84.3 1.04 Completion 26.0 51.0 0.51 UBE-SSE Transition 49.6 74.9 0.66 Intake 13.0 39.0 0.33 SSE Retention 68.2 77.0 0.89 Completion 9.0 30.0 0.30 Source: Authors’ calculations based on MICS, 2006. Disparities in Economic Wellbeing As previously noted, household income is one of the most discriminating factors in children’s enrollment. An enormous gap exists between the most and least advantaged groups in terms of their chances of access to different education levels, and the inequality of chances is accentuated with successive education levels. The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 169 Figure 6.3: Access Probability, by Grade and Level of Income, 2006 Percent Q1 100 93 Q2 90 77 Q3 80 70 Q4 70 62 57 Q5 Percent 60 48 50 38 40 30 23 20 16 11 10 5 3 0 1 6 7 9 10 12 Grade Source: Authors’ calculations based on MICS, 2006. The probability of Grade 1 access for children from households belonging to the poorest quintile of the population (Q1) is barely over half that of the wealthiest quintile (Q5; 57 percent and 93 percent respectively). This difference is constant throughout schooling, at CHAPTER 6 35 percentage points on average, although it becomes increasingly discriminatory with successive levels (See Figure 6.3). The poorest children have very low chances (five percent) of entering senior secondary, and are 11 times less likely to do so than children from the wealthiest quintile, whose access rate is 48 percent (See Table 6.4). The access odds ratio between children from the groups at each extreme (Q1/Q5) varies from 0.61 for lower basic access to just 0.08 for senior secondary completion. This leads to the recommendation to enhance pro-poor policies (that may include cash transfers to the poorest families, EQUITY AND DISPARITIES conditioned to children’s school attendance) in order to reach the most disadvantaged children and have them remain in school for longer. Table 6.4: Income Disparities in Schooling Patterns, by Extreme Income Level, 2006 Percent Q1 Q5 Q1 / Q5 Intake 57.0 93.0 0.61 LBE Retention 40.4 82.6 0.49 Completion 23.0 76.8 0.30 LBE-UBE Transition 71.6 90.4 0.79 Intake 16.5 69.4 0.24 UBE Retention 69.7 89.3 0.78 Completion 11.5 62.0 0.19 UBE-SSE Transition 44.6 77.4 058 Intake 5.1 48.0 0.11 SSE Retention 59.6 78.3 0.76 Completion 3.1 37.6 0.08 Source: Authors’ calculations based on MICS, 2006. 170 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) The differences according to families’ income levels are indeed generated from the very access to school, but they deepen considerably afterwards. Both intra-level retention and transition between levels participate in accentuating the inequalities. However, the differences in the lower basic retention rate (only 40 percent for the poorest children compared with 83 percent for the wealthiest) and the upper basic to senior secondary transition rate (45 percent and 77 percent respectively) have the greatest weight in generating inequalities. It is noticeable that all social disparities in the Gambian education system, just as much those related to gender as those related to geographical location and income levels, are generated more in the course of a level than between levels. This probably indicates that the issue is more one of school’s ability to retain students, than of the geographical distribution of schools. Simultaneous Consideration of Gender, Location, and Income Disparities The simultaneous consideration of the three dimensions previously reviewed enables the identification of the most disadvantaged groups in terms of schooling. Figure 6.4 below offers a comparative view of the groups at each extreme: girls from poor families living in rural areas, and boys from wealthy families living in urban areas. Figure 6.4: Access Probability for the Extreme Groups, by Grade, 2006 Percent 120 100 80 Percent 60 40 Male/urban/Wealthiest 20 Female/Rural/Poorest 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Grade Source: Authors’ calculations based on MICS, 2006. The gap between the two groups in terms of schooling access is outstanding. Girls living in the poorest rural households are virtually excluded from education as of the end of lower basic (Grade 9) when their chances of schooling dwindle from nine percent to being virtually nil at the end of senior secondary. The schooling probability of boys from wealthy urban The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 171 households on the other hand undergoes a more gentle and constant decline, to reach 43 percent by Grade 12. The inequality between the two groups, present from the very access to lower basic, is aggravated by very high primary level dropout within the poor rural girls group. Regional Disparities Beyond the disparities due to social characteristics related to individuals and their families (gender, area of residence, and level of income), the region where households are established can also create differences in children’s chances of access to education. Regional disparities in enrollment are fairly accentuated in The Gambia. The differences are important from the very access to lower basic, with an access probability estimated at 92 percent in Region 1 against 51 percent in Region 6. Regional disparities deepen until the end of upper basic schooling, before receding slightly at the senior secondary level (See Figure 6.5 below). This can be appreciated in the last column of Table 6.5 in which the relationship between regions at each extreme is calculated; the Region 6 to Region 1 ratio is 0.56 for access to lower basic, falls to 0.21 for access to upper basic, and is just 0.13 for access to senior CHAPTER 6 secondary, indicating that children from Region 6 are almost eight times less likely of enrolling in this level than children from Region 1. In fact, the greater the distance from Banjul (Region 1), the lower the chances of benefiting from a full school career.77 Figure 6.5: Access Probability, by Education Level and Region, 2006 Percent EQUITY AND DISPARITIES Region 1 Region 2 100 92 Region 3 Region 4 90 Region 5 Region 6 80 71 70 64 60 54 Percent 50 41 51 40 32 30 20 18 10 14 6 5 5 0 1 6 7 9 10 12 Grade Source: Authors’ calculations based on MICS, 2006. 172 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) The most critical underlying causes of the generation of regional disparities are:78 • Lower basic retention and lower basic to upper basic transition for Regions 5 and 6; • Upper basic retention for Regions 4 and 6; • Upper basic to senior secondary transition for Region 6; and • Senior secondary retention for Region 4. Table 6.5: Regional Disparities in Schooling Patterns, 2006 Percent Regions Region 6 1 2 3 4 5 6 /Region 1 Intake 91.6 87.7 60.5 64.0 65.9 51.1 0.56 LBE Retention 77.2 74.2 51.4 63.3 36.9 35.4 0.46 Completion 70.7 65.1 31.1 40.5 24.3 18.1 0.26 LBE-UBE Transition 90.9 82.8 91.0 91.1 70.8 75.7 0.83 Intake 64.3 53.9 28.3 36.9 17.2 13.7 0.21 UBE Retention 84.1 83.5 81.3 64.0 102.9 42.3 0.50 Completion 54.1 45.0 23.0 23.6 17.7 5.8 0.11 UBE-SSE Transition 76.5 58.7 50.4 60.6 31.6 93.1 1.22 Intake 41.4 26.4 11.6 14.3 5.6 5.4 0.13 SSE Retention 76.8 67.8 81.0 67.1 73.2 88.9 1.16 Completion 31.8 17.9 9.4 9.6 4.1 4.8 0.15 Source: Authors calculations based on MoBSE/EMIS. District Level Disparities The following maps enable the location of underenrollment by districts, and the identification of disparities between districts of a same region, for different school levels. Map 6.1: Lower Basic Gross Enrollment Rate, by District, 2009/10 Jangjangbureh Kerewan Kanifing Mansakoriko Basse Brikama GER LBS < 50 (2) 50 to 75 (10) 100 to 135 (9) 75 to 100 (12) > 135 (4) Source: Authors calculations based on MoBSE/EMIS. The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 173 The earlier findings also hold at the district level. The most inland zones are the most handicapped. However, there is some heterogeneity among districts in certain regions. Region 3 has districts with highly variable enrollment levels, for example: the basic education GER varies from 53 percent in the Central Baddibu district to 107 percent in Lower Baddibu (See Map 6.3). Region 6 on the other hand is characterized by across the board underenrollment (10) at the upper basic level, with a gross enrollment rate of 29 percent on average; varying from 7 21 percent in Falladu East district to 61 percent in Wuli (See Map 6.2). (10) Map 6.2: Upper Basic Gross Enrollment Rate, by District, 2009/10 7 Jangjangbureh Kerewan Kanifing Mansakoriko Basse Brikama GER UBS < 35 (9) 35 to 50 (4) 65 to 80 (5) 50 to 65 (9) > 80 (10) CHAPTER 6 Source: Authors calculations based on MoBSE/EMIS. (4) 6 (5) 5 (9) > Map 6.3: Basic Education Gross Enrollment Rate, by District, 2009/10 EQUITY AND DISPARITIES Jangjangbureh Kerewan Kanifing Mansakoriko Basse Brikama GER BE 2009/10 < 60% (7) 80% - 100% (11) 60% - 80% (10) > 100% (9) Source: Authors calculations based on MoBSE/EMIS. It is necessary to deepen the analysis at the district level, which is the level at which most disaggregated demographic data are available and useable, in order to diagnose the nature of the problems that these districts face. 174 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) Analysis of the Supply and Demand Issues at the District Level One possible method of identification of the underlying causes of under enrollment at the district level is to compare the supply of education available in districts with the level of enrollment achieved by them. In this analysis, the supply of education is represented by the number of teachers by 1,000 youth aged 7 to 15 years and the level of enrollment is represented by the gross enrollment rate for basic education. Figure 6.6 graphically presents the level of enrollment according to the supply of education, through a scatter plot. The lineal regression line (slanted dotted green line) provides an estimation of the level of enrollment expected for a given level of education supply. Beyond the positive relationship between the two variables that it underlines, this figure also identifies districts that face a weaker level of enrollment than expected (districts beneath the regression line), considering the level of education supply available. Taking the average supply for all districts (vertical red line) into account distributes districts into four groups: (i) The first group comprises the districts that combine supply below average and a level of enrollment below expectations. These districts face both schooling supply and demand issues. This group includes the districts of: Falladu East, Central Baddibu, Nianija, Falladu West, Upper Saloum, Jarra Central, Kombo North, Upper Baddibu, Jokadu and Niamina East; (ii) The second group comprises those districts whose enrollment is below expectations despite education supply being above average. These districts specifically face a Figure 6.6: Relation of Basic Education GER to Number of Teachers per 1,000 Youth (7 to 15 Years), by District, 2009 160 JangJangbureh SUPPLY ISSUE NO ISSUE 140 Kiang W. R2=0.439 Niamina W. Basic Education GER (%) 120 Kiang C. Kanifing M.C. F. Brefet L. Baddibou 100 Banjul F. Kansala Jarra W. F.B. Karanal F. Jarrol Kombo S. Kantora Wuli F. Bondali Kombo C. Kombo E. 80 L. Niumi L. Saloum Jarra E. U. Baddibou NianiKiang E. Kombo N. DEMAND ISSUE Sandu U. Niumi N. Dankunku 60 Jarra C. Sami C. Baddibou Niamina E. Fal. East Fal. West Jokadu 40 Nianja U. Saloum SUPPLY AND DEMAND ISSUES 20 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Teachers per 1,000 Youth (Nb) Source: Authors calculations based on MoBSE/EMIS and revised population data (GBoS). Note: The slanted green R² line is equivalent to the expected enrollment ratio for a given level of supply. The vertical red line is equivalent to the average supply index. The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 175 demand issue. This group includes the districts of: Upper Niumi, Sami, North Dankunku, Kiang East, Niani, Lower Saloum, Foni Jarol, Foni Kansala and Foni Bitang (4) 6 (5) Karanai; 5 (9) > (iii) The third group comprises those districts where enrollment is higher than expected despite supply being below average. The districts in this group mainly face supply constraints. It would be appropriate to increase the supply of education in these districts to increase enrollment. This group includes the districts of: Kantora, Kanifing Municipal Council, Wulli, Sandu, Jarra East, Jarra West, Foni Bondali, Kombo South and Foni Brefet; (iv) The fourth and final group comprises those districts that have a higher level of education supply and a level of enrollment in line with or higher than expected. There are therefore no major issues of supply or demand in these districts, which include: Banjul, Jangjangbureh, Lower Baddibou, Kiang Central, Kiang West and Niamina West. Map 6.4: Supply and Demand Diagnosis, by District, 2009 CHAPTER 6 Jangjangbureh Kerewan Kanifing Mansakoriko Basse Brikama Supply and Demand Diagnosis by District Supply AND Demand Issues (9) No major Issue (7) EQUITY AND DISPARITIES Demand Issue (11) Supply Issue (10) Source: Figure 6.6. Analysis of Equity in the Distribution of Public Education Resources Following the preceding analyses of disparities in the access to Gambian education system, this section is devoted to the distribution of public education resources, on the basis of the principle that the higher the level of education an individual reaches within the system, the higher the share of public resources he/she consumes. The analysis is performed at two (3) 3 (8) levels: firstly by calculating the proportion of public resources effectively allocated to the 3 (11) > most educated individuals; and secondly, by estimating the extent to which each social group captures public education resources. 176 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) Structural Distribution of Education Expenditure This first structural analysis primarily relates to the final enrollment by level of education on the one hand, and to the structure of public per student spending on the other, regardless of personal, social or geographical characteristics.78 Therefore the larger the share of the population with access to school, and the weaker the increase of unit costs with each successive grade and level, the more structurally equitable the distribution of public education resources. Conversely, the lower the share of the population with access to school, and the higher, in relative terms, the unit costs of the higher grades, the more structurally inequitable the distribution of public education resources. The distribution of education resources in The Gambia among a theoretical cohort of students shows that the lower basic education level consumes 8.5 percent of resources, which benefit 32.4 percent of students. By upper basic completion, 35 percent of resources have been spent on 63.9 percent of students, and by the end of senior secondary 76.2 percent of resources have benefitted 95.4 percent of students (See Table 6.6). Table 6.6: Structural Distribution of Public Education Resources Allocated to a Pseudo Cohort of 100 Children, by Grade, 2009/10 Students Attaining Unit cost Expenditure on Pupils Final Grade Grade Acces Rate By Grade Cumulative By Grade Cumulative By Grade By Grade Cumulative (%) (%) (Dalasis) (Dalasis) (Dalasis) (%) (%) None 100.0 6.2 6.2 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 1 93.8 4.8 11.0 1,389 1,389 6,668 0.43 0.43 2 89.0 4.5 15.5 1,389 2,778 12,502 0.81 1.24 3 84.5 3.8 19.3 1,389 4,167 15,835 1.02 2.26 4 80.7 3.0 22.3 1,389 5,556 16,669 1.07 3.33 5 77.7 2.9 25.2 1,389 6,945 20,141 1.30 4.63 6 74.8 7.2 32.4 1,389 8,334 60,008 3.87 8.49 7 67.6 2.4 34.8 1,784 10,119 24,286 1.56 10.06 8 65.2 6.6 41.4 1,784 11,904 78,566 5.06 15.12 9 58.6 22.5 63.9 1,784 13,689 307,998 19.85 34.97 10 36.1 1.8 65.7 2,454 16,143 29,058 1.87 36.84 11 34.3 5.9 71.6 2,454 18,597 109,725 7.07 43.91 12 28.4 23.8 95.4 2,454 21,052 501,661 32.32 46.24 HE* 4.6 4.6 100.0 14,913 80,704 368,816 23.76 100.0 Source: Authors’ calculations based on the schooling profile (Chapter 2) and the unit costs of schooling (Chapter 3). Note: * At this level, 4 years of education are taken into account in the computation of cumulated resources. The Lorenz curve for the structural distribution of public resources accumulated by a theoretical cohort for the 2009/10 school year shows that 30 percent of education resources benefit the 10 percent most educated, about the same share that benefits the 60 percent least educated (See Figure 6.7).80 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 177 Figure 6.7: Lorenz Curve for the Distribution of Public Education Resources, 2009/10 A 100 90 30% public ressources appropriated per the Resources Consumed (%) 80 10% most educated 70 60 50 40 30 10% most 20 educated B 10 O 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Student Population (%) Source: Based on Table 6.6. The Gini coefficient, which measures the overall level of concentration of public education resources is 0.42.81 The reasonable degree of equity in the distribution of education CHAPTER 6 resources in The Gambia is further reflected in the proportion of resources that other countries devote to the 10 percent most educated individuals, of 40 percent on average in Sub-Saharan Africa, and reaching over 70 percent for some countries (See Figure 6.8). Figure 6.8: Share of Public Education Resources Consumed by the 10 Percent Most Educated, Various African Countries, 2009 or LAY Percent EQUITY AND DISPARITIES 80 73 70 60 Percent 50 40 40 30 30 20 15 10 0 e i e au ia e ia a n so i r re r da i t al w ge ca rd ag ni ou Th ni an er oi Fa M a ss an a as Be Ve Ni al er Lib Iv ib rit nz Bi a, Rw a ag M d’ Av Dj a- au in pe Ta bi ad te ne rk am M Ca A Cô Bu M SS ui G G Source: UNESCO-Pôle de Dakar. 178 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) Social Selectivity in the Distribution of Education Resources The second level of analysis of the distribution of public education resources focuses on social selectivity. It is derived from the analysis on structural disparities, considered as the envelope within which the disparities in the enrollment of different groups (differentiated by gender, area of residence, and income) result in differences in the appropriation of public education resources, with given groups possibly obtaining more or less than their relative share within the country’s population. The groups of the population that most benefit from public education expenditure can be determined by linking the social dimension of enrollment (and hence final schooling levels) to the unit costs of each education level (and to the unit resources accumulated at each of these final levels). Given the relatively strong structural concentration of public education resources and the strong social disparities in terms of enrollment, both documented earlier, the fairly intense level of social disparities in the appropriation of public education resources was to be anticipated (See Table 6.7).82 Table 6.7: Disparities in the Appropriation of Public Education Resources, 15 to 24 Years Age-Group, 200683 All Education Levels % of Education % of the Relative Resources Ratio Population in Appropriation Captured, (a) / (b) Each Group (b) Index by Group (a) Income Quintile Q1 (The Poorest) 5.8 19.6 0.296 1.0 Q2 12.3 20.2 0.607 2.0 Q3 15.0 20.0 0.748 2.5 Q4 20.9 20.2 1.035 3.5 Q5 (The Wealthiest) 46.1 20.0 2.306 7.8 Q1+Q2 18.1 39.8 0.454 1.0 Q4+Q5 67.0 40.2 1.667 3.7 Gender Girls 47.1 51.3 0.919 1.0 Boys 52.9 48.7 1.086 1.2 Location Rural 35.9 62.1 0.578 1.0 Urban 64.1 37.9 1.693 2.9 Source: Authors’ calculations based on Tables 6.1 and 6.6. The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 179 Indeed, with a relative appropriation index of 1.2, boys obtain 20 percent more public education resources on average than girls. The disparity by area of residence is again stronger than for gender, with youth living in urban areas obtaining 2.9 times more public education resources on average than youth living in rural areas. However neither of these match the income disparity in the concentration of public education resources: youth from the wealthiest 20 percent of households obtain 7.8 times more resources than youth from the poorest 20 percent, on average. The comparison of the 40 percent wealthiest and the 40 percent poorest shows that individuals from the former group obtain 3.7 times more resources than individuals from the latter group. These results confirm the earlier findings: the level of income is related to the greatest disparities, followed by the area of residence. Gender certainly accounts for significant differences, but they are nevertheless greatly inferior. It is likely that this type of calculation applied to regional disparities would also have produced some very marked differences. The global picture that stems from this chapter is one of an education system in which social inequalities, both in terms of enrollment and in terms of the appropriation of public resources, are fairly substantial. Any policy adjustments will obviously have to: (i) take a global systemic evolution toward greater coverage and efficiency into account; (ii) concomitantly pay particular attention to society’s most disadvantaged groups (the poor, and those living in rural areas) and try to improve upward social mobility through education; CHAPTER 6 and (iii) favor a district approach when elaborating new policies. Indeed, wide variations across districts in terms of schooling indicators are apparent, as a result of the underlying supply and demand factors. It will be necessary to provide more teachers and classrooms where supply is insufficient, and to sensitize village heads and religious chiefs and raise incentives where demand is weak. EQUITY AND DISPARITIES 180 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) Notes 73 Disparities in learning outcomes are addressed in Chapter 4 on quality in education. 74 The relative representation is the relationship between the proportion of a fortunate group (male, urban and wealthy children) and that of a disadvantaged group (female, rural and poor children) at a given education level, weighted according to the share of each within the national population. 75 These policies include schemes providing uniforms and stationary to girls in lower basic schools whose parents cannot afford them, lower or exempt fees for girls in upper basic schools, the girls’ Scholarship Trust Fund, the Girls/Child Friendly School Initiative, and the President’s Empowerment for Girls’ Education project. 76 According to the study of youth employment in The Gambia (World Bank, 2010g), in 2008, 15 percent of rural children aged 7 to 14 years were employed (against 5 percent of urban children), and 38 percent were likely to combine work and school (against 18 percent for their urban peers), negatively affecting their schooling time. Indeed, they devote 14 hours per week to productive activities on average. The study also showed that the transition from school to full-time work begins at the average age of 12 years. 77 High rates of child labor are also found in Regions 3 to 6 (World Bank, 2010g). 78 The numbers referred to are in bold in Table 6.5. 79 The structural distribution of public education resources is calculated here with the 2009/10 transversal education data equivalent to the highest grade attained, given that although such transversal data provides lower estimates of inequalities than longitudinal data, the difference is modest, and the data is available. The distribution of students according to their final level of schooling is determined on the basis of schooling profiles, and the volume of public resources accrued at each level is calculated on the basis of unit costs. It is assumed that these data can be transcribed in a temporal perspective, and that the unit cost for each grade is equal to the average unit cost for the level, as estimated in Chapter 3. 80 The diagonal OA represents the theoretical situation of perfect equity in the distribution of education resources within a cohort, where X percent of the population benefits from X percent of public education resources, whatever the value of X. The real distribution is all the more inequitable that the Lorenz curve is distant from this diagonal. 81 The Gini coefficient is the relationship between the surface of the space between the Lorenz curve and the OA line, and that of the OAB triangle. A coefficient of 0 would mean that there was no concentration (totally equitable distribution and Lorenz curve overwriting the OA line) and a coefficient of 1 would indicate a maximal concentration (all public education resources are captured by a single individual). 82 This analysis is based on the strong assumption that students generally face similar learning conditions. 83 The first column of the table provides the percentage of public resources captured by the individuals belonging to a given population group, for the entire education system. This percentage is related to that of each subgroup of the reference population (5 to 24 year-olds). Finally, the relative appropriation indexes (the last column of the table) are calculated by relating the ratios to the share of individuals of the reference category in each segment of the population. The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 181 CHAP TER 7 CHAPTER 7 MANAGEMENT ISSUES Photo : © Alpha Bah 182 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) CHAPTER 7 MANAGEMENT ISSUES This chapter deals with three aspects of management: (i) administrative management and the allocation of education inputs (mainly the consistency of teacher posting and textbook distribution) at central, decentralized and school levels; (ii) economies of scale and optimal school size; and (ii) pedagogical management and the school level transformation of resources into student learning achievements. The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 183 KEY FINDINGS 1. The distribution of teachers shows that 82% work in government and grant-aided schools: 74% are permanent; 14% are hired on a contract basis and 12% are undergoing training. Three quarter of them are qualified. On average, 26.5% are female; although this share decreases with each level, from 33% at LBE to 9% at SSE. 2. The primary level pupil to teacher ratio is good (41:1): it is in line with the FTI benchmark, 9 points lower than the SSA average, and below the national target.. For the secondary cycle on the other hand, the PTR (37:1) is above the subregional average (33:1). 3. Consistency in teacher posting shows significant variations: • Region 1 has the highest PTRs in both LBE (53:1) and UBE (43:1); while Region 5 has the best pupil to qualified teacher ratio (PqTR) in both levels. Overall, PqTRs range from 67:1 in Region 1 for LBE, to 27:1 in Region 4 for SSE. Significant disparities are also found among districts within each region: in Region 2 for instance, PqTRs at LBE vary from 50:1 to a startling 107:1. • At the school level, 87% of primary teacher postings are justified by enrollment, which is reasonably efficient. However, consistency decreases at the UBE (79%) and SSE (47%) levels. Both the lower and upper basic coefficients compare well to the SSA CHAPTER 7 averages of 71% and 69%. • Consistency among regions varies greatly, with 91% being explained by enrollment in Region 2, against 58% in Region 5, and just 48% in Region 6. 4. Textbook allocation shows particularly poor consistency in Grades 1 to 3. The pupil to textbook ratios range from 1.3:1 to 2.1:1 for English, and from 1.3:1 to 1.9:1 for Math. MANAGEMENT ISSUES Grades 1 to 4 are those in shortest supply, marked also by poorer allocation consistency. 5. Economies of scale could be achieved by increasing the size of existing small schools: 300 students is optimal at the LBE level (unit costs are about D 1,000), yet 71.3% of schools are smaller, with unit costs reaching the triple for the smallest. At the UBE level 400 students is optimal, yet 37.5% of schools are smaller, and unit costs reach D 2,528 for those with just 100 students, against D 1,288 for those with 400 students. Nevertheless, the distance to school is also a factor to take into consideration when addressing this issue. 6. Pedagogical management is clearly below par: there appears to be virtually no relation between a school’s resources and its students’ academic performance. This points to efficiency flaws in the use of resources at the school/classroom level to achieve good learning outcomes. Indeed, the way resources are being used and managed at school and classroom levels are known to be key determinants in the transformation of education inputs into outcomes. This also raises a supervision/inspection issue. Current interventions (the management programme delivered by the University of The Gambia to head teachers, the Whole School Development programme and the performance management system) should help to enhance results-based management and raise accountability in years to come, as would the use of school report cards with comparative data. A well functioning education system is one that has operative mechanisms that ensure the efficient and effective allocation of resources across schools (administrative management) and whose schools enable a maximum of students to acquire the required skills and competencies (pedagogical management). Administrative Issues in Basic and Secondary Schools Institutional Aspects of Teacher Management The Gambian education ministry’s categorization of teachers is used in this report. The four types are: (i) qualified teachers (QT) refer to permanent career staff, all of which are civil servants with teaching qualifications; (ii) unqualified teachers (UQT) are hired on a contract basis; (iii),contract teachers (CT) do hold professional teaching qualifications, but are also hired on a temporary (one year) basis; and (iv) teacher trainees (TT) are those undergoing training to obtain professional qualifications, and are destined to become qualified teachers. Teacher Recruitment and Posting The recruitment of teachers follows different channels according to their status and school ownership. Most government school teachers are recruited through teacher training institutions, namely, The Gambia College (GC), The Gambia Technical Training Institute (GTTI), and the University of The Gambia (UTG). The Gambia College prepares teachers for basic level schools. GTTI and UTG teacher graduates are usually allocated to upper basic and senior secondary institutions respectively, based on their areas of specialization and schools’ teacher requirements by subject. Teachers from the UTG are usually employed by senior secondary schools directly through their boards. Many are also recruited into school administration in basic level institutions. Most of the trainees in the GTTI and the UTG are in-service, sponsored by the government, and are hence automatically appointed upon graduation.84 The Human Resources Directorate (HRD) liaises with all teacher training institutions, especially the GC, to gather information on potential graduates in preparation for their appointment. The posting of qualified teachers (QTs) to lower and upper basic schools is based on both teacher supply and teachers’ requests (demand), for each region.85 It is reviewed annually. Prior to the posting exercise each region sends its requirements to the HRD, indicating the teaching positions to be filled. In the case of UBE requests must commensurate with the number of classes and/or subjects. The HRD compiles the requests to obtain the consolidated teacher recruitment needs for that year, and uses a formula to allocate teachers to each region.86 The distribution of each region’s allocation is then determined through a posting The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 185 committee, responsible for the final deployment to schools and other trade-offs, such as regional transfers.87 This allocation method does not apply to senior secondary schools because they are governed by boards, which act as their recruitment agencies. Once the posting of qualified teachers is complete in August/September, any gaps are filled with unqualified and untrained, teachers (UQTs), or non Gambian, retired and volunteer contract teachers (CTs). Candidates are selected at the regional level, and appointments are formalized through HRD. Contracts span the academic year, and are renewable the following year. Some specificities exist by type of recruit: (i) The criterion for the appointment of unqualified teachers (UQTs) is a three credit WASSCE pass or equivalent. Some of them use their contracts as a stepping stone to formal recruitment, through the GC or in-service training. They are recruited at the regional level and their credentials are sent to HRD to formalize their engagement; (ii) Non Gambian teacher candidates tender their application through the HRD, for verification and recommendation to the Personnel Management Office; (iii) Retired teachers are recruited through the Retired Teachers Association, of which they must be members. According to a memorandum of understanding signed between the ministry and the association, they are paid for the month of August pending their September appointment, as a form of retention allowance. Their reengagement is based on the availability of positions and their being in good health; CHAPTER 7 (iv) International volunteers are provided through international cooperation agencies such as The Nigerian Technical Cooperation, Volunteer Services Overseas and the Peace Corps to help fill outstanding vacancies. They are provided with accommodation for their period of service; and (v) National volunteering is being promoted since 2010, targeting nonteacher graduates MANAGEMENT ISSUES from the UTG. They are deployed in senior secondary schools in Region 6 to complement teacher supply. At recruitment they are given preservice training on pedagogic and classroom management skills. They are also given accommodation and a monthly stipend during their period of service. Grant-aided, private and madrassa schools recruit their own teachers. Private schools advertize vacancies in the media; their boards are in charge of the selection and recruitment process. Grant-aided schools are subsidized by the MoBSE, on the basis of their teacher requirements, and in line with their personnel costs. Teacher Retention and Incentives Little is known about teacher retention and attrition, as no data on those issues are collected at present. Yet, in order to attract teachers to remote areas in Regions 3, 4, 5 and 6, the 186 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) ministry offers various incentives: (i) a hardship allowance;88 (ii) new teachers’ quarters, which have been built in some rural schools; and (iii) a regional or provincial allowance.89 In cumulating the above, some teachers receive twice their base salary, which has attracted many qualified teachers to these areas. However, the effectiveness of the incentive package is questioned by district level disparities in the deployment of teachers. Figure 7.1 plots the share of teachers receiving an allowance (the allowance coverage) against the PTR for the regions where teachers are entitled to incentives, underlining the fact that no conclusive relationship can be drawn about their impact. Three dimensions are illustrated by the figure:90 (i) Effectiveness: In four districts with high (above the subsample average) allowance coverage, PTRs are low, suggesting that the incentive mechanism is effective in attracting and retaining teachers (See Area C of Figure 7.1). On the other hand, seven districts have PTRs above average, despite their high allowance coverage, implying just the opposite, that the incentives are ineffective (See Area B); (ii) Targeting: Eight districts show both low PTRs and allowance coverage, suggesting the appropriate targeting of incentives in these areas: as PTRs are low despite little incentives being offered, it is safe to assume that they are unnecessary (See Area D). On the other hand, apparent inefficiency in the allocation of incentives exist in the six districts in Area A of the figure, where the high PTRs and low allowance coverage suggest that a greater number of teachers should be targeted; (iii) Design: Seven districts in Area B of the figure show a prevalence of high PTRs despite the allowance coverage being high, implying that the hardship allowance’s design is inadequate or insufficient to attract and retain teachers. Figure 7.1: Pupil to Teacher Ratio and Share of Teachers Receiving the Hardship Allowance, in Government–Funded Lower Basic Level Schools, by District, 2009/10 120 C B Niamina D Sandu 100 Upper Niumi Wuli Kantora Niamina E Kiang West Sami Allowed Coverage (%) Niamina W. 80 Niani Jarra East Central Baddibou Fulladu West 60 Jokadu Fulladu East Upper Saloum L. Baddibou Lower Niumi Nimina East L. Saloum Kiang E. 40 Up. Baddibou Jarra Central Klang C. Jarra W. 20 D A Jangjangbureh - 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 PTR Source: MoBSE/EMIS 2009/10 and MoBSE/Head-Count of Teachers, 2009/10. The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 187 These illustrative observations call for a rigorous evaluation of the incentive package offered to teachers posted in remote areas given that its cost-effectiveness is still not clear. Such an evaluation would greatly help to better understand teacher motivation and allow the revision of the whole incentive package to make it more efficient. The primary level higher teacher certificate (HTC), instituted in 2009/10, is part of a strategy to retain teachers in LBE. Previously, primary teachers would register for the higher teacher certificate to qualify for upper basic school positions and improve their income, which tended to drain primary schools of their qualified teachers. The introduction of this new qualification seems to have been effective in slowing this trend. However, rigorous analyses are needed to verify the observations made in the field. Due to teacher shortages, science and math specialization is being encouraged through the screening of candidates for HTC courses, based on their competencies and interest in these subjects.91 UTG science scholarships are also being awarded to potential secondary school science teachers. These initiatives also aim to increase the share of local teachers in science in senior secondary schools. Indeed, most science teachers are currently contract teachers from Nigeria, Sierra Leone and Liberia. Annually monitoring teachers’ movements and their causes beyond the teaching profession (attrition) and across schools would be beneficial to better understand teacher turnover and job satisfaction and to better anticipate teacher needs. CHAPTER 7 Teacher Absenteeism Absenteeism is an issue that affects both learning outcomes, and school management. Up to 10 percent of the teaching/learning time might be lost, without considering unplanned school closures, late entry and casual school holidays. This is of all the more concern that teaching time is already low in The Gambia by international standards, at 734 hours at best MANAGEMENT ISSUES against a recommended 880 hours per year (Blimpo et al., 2010). However, the Whole School Development and School Grant Program’s impact evaluation found that only six percent of teachers were absent over five randomly picked days, based on teacher attendance school reports (Blimpo et al., 2010). This is low compared to other countries in the region. The regular school visits by cluster monitors are believed to have helped improve teacher attendance (World Bank, 2007). Teacher absenteeism might be reduced through improved management practices at the school level, including close monitoring of teacher attendance by school heads (World Bank, 2011).92 188 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) Teacher Training Teacher training is mainly conducted by the GC, the GTTI and the UTG. The GC is the main provider of preservice teachers for the lower and upper basic levels, whereas the GTTI trains teachers for the technical subjects at the upper basic level and UTG provides training targeted at the senior secondary level. Table 7.1: Teacher Training Qualifications and Entry Requirements, by Type and Level Duration and Targeted Level Qualification Mode of Institution Entry Requirements Delivery Preservice 3 years: (i) One credit and three passes in Primary Teacher 1 residential + the WASSCE, including English; Certificate (PTC) 2 supervised GC or school teaching (ii) Four GCE O-level passes, including English; or LBE (iii) Form 4 leaving certificate 3 years: examination credits, including PTC Islamic 2 residential + English; or Studies GC 1 supervised (iv) The International Certificate school teaching of Education. 3 years : Higher Teacher 2 residential + GC Entrance exam Certificate (HTC) 1 supervised UBE school teaching HTC Islamic 3 years GC PTC Islamic Studies Studies B.A.(Ed.) Five WASSCE credits, including SSE 4-years UTG B.Sc.(Ed.) English In-service 3 years part-time ECD Programme ECD or GC 2 years full-time PTC Extension 3 years: GC Unqualified teaching experience. LBE distance learning HTC Primary 3 years GC PTC School 1 year: Administration Management UTG For head teachers. residential Programme Preservice Training for Basic Education The Gambia College offers different preservice training courses, namely the Primary Teacher Certificate (PTC) programme that prepares teachers for lower basic schools, and the Higher Teacher Certificate (HTC) programme that prepares teachers for upper basic schools. The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 189 The PTC entry requirement is based on secondary level qualifications. Following a shortage of good candidates, underachieving applicants are being accepted.93 Admission to the HTC is more demanding and hence finding candidates that meet the entry requirements is again a challenge. Both programmes face difficulties in reaching the projected student intake.94 Both PTC and HTC programmes run for three years. The PTC entails one full academic year at the GC followed by two years of school level practice, combined with distance-learning and assignments. The HTC starts with two academic years at the GC followed by one year of supervised teaching in classrooms. Graduation is based on continuous assessment. All preservice students receive allowances to cover their maintenance costs. With a view to train and upgrade madrassa teachers, preservice PTC and HTC training programmes specifically targeted at Koranic teachers have been developed by the GC, and were launched in 2007/08.95 They involve two types of training: (i) courses for unqualified Koranic teachers in conventional schools who wish to qualify; and (ii) courses for Grade 12 madrassa students who wish to become qualified Koranic teachers. Again, training lasts for three years, and involves an academic year in the GC and two years of teaching practice prior to certification. Early childhood development (ECD) programmes are also offered by the GC since 2006/07, targeting preschool teachers. Courses are either delivered on a two-year full-time basis or a three-year part-time basis. Students generally pay their own fees. However, some students are sponsored by their employers. The PTC curriculum has already been aligned with the CHAPTER 7 ECD curriculum to enable primary teachers to handle ECD classes in schools with ECD centres. The GTTI trains qualified teachers (QTs), for whom the courses are a form of skill upgrading. They usually have a PTC and a background in technical subjects, like woodwork or metalwork. Admission is based on having a qualification in a specialized technical subject and a PTC. MANAGEMENT ISSUES Senior Secondary Teacher Training Senior secondary teachers are qualified through training provided by the UTG, mainly through the Bachelor of Education degree programme. This programme, consisting of four- year B.A.(Ed) and B.Sc.(Ed) courses was introduced in 2006/07, with the objective of increasing the share of local teachers at the senior secondary level.96 Entry requirements are five WASSCE credits, including credits in English and in two teaching subjects. Additional incentives for Gambians to join secondary teaching include MoBSE/EMIS scholarships for the programme, given to teachers who commit to SSE teaching upon graduation. However, because of the difficulty in finding a sufficient number of students who are willing and able to follow the programme, many SSE teachers are still recruited among degree holders with relevant majors. The current plan is to synchronize the HTC curriculum with the B.A. and B.Sc. programmes to allow HTC holders to obtain their Bachelor of Education in only two additional years. 190 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) Career Development Although there is currently no teacher development policy as such, various schemes exist to allow teachers to “upgrade�, and contribute to improve their skills, including: (i) Ministry professional development schemes, like the School Management Programme for school heads and the B.Ed. for teachers; (ii) Training at the GC, especially for teachers holding a PTC who wish to upgrade to the HTC; and (iii) Occasional overseas government-subsidized study leave and training, with the obligation to resume duty upon completion.;97 and (iv) The PTC extension programme being rolled out by the MoBSE/EMIS, an in-service training programme targeting unqualified teachers who did not obtain WASSCE credits in English and math (JDISM, 2010). This programme should help to clear the number of unqualified teachers in primary schools by 2015.98 To complement the above, in 2010 the MoBSE/EMIS institutionalized an in-service training unit, devoted to the professional development of the sector’s personnel. It is also working on a curriculum framework which emphasizes the need for teachers’ continuous professional development, as does the human resource policy under development. The enactment of these tools and the establishment of the training unit shall positively contribute to teachers’ professional development in the coming years. Sustained efforts are required on this front, in concordance with interventions targeted to improve pre-service trainings, given the low level of knowledge content of many teachers. The tendency described above of curriculum synchronizing (between the PTC and the HTC and between the HTC and the Bachelor of Education), while allowing to reduce the training duration for those already holding the relevant certificate (and ultimately reducing costs), could however produce negative outcomes. Indeed, establishing bridges between different education courses and easing the ascension of teachers through levels implies taking the risk of depleting the lower education levels of their more qualified teachers. This has already been observed among qualified PTC holders, many of whom enrolled on HTC courses to upgrade their teaching rank and obtain better salaries. This drain was partially stopped by the set up of the HTC-primary to keep PTC holders in lower basic schools. Thus career movements should be adequately monitored by the ministry, as they might have severe consequences. Beyond this, this issue affects two inter-related dimensions: teacher development and career management. Teacher policies must be very attentive to these two dimensions so that promotions also encourage staff to continue teaching at their level. Providing teachers with the right incentives (training opportunities, salaries and career advancement) is crucial and should be adequately assessed and planned. These observations call for the need to implement a comprehensive teacher policy clearly defining recruitment, posting and mobility conditions as well as training opportunities and individual career path The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 191 options (including salary progression), that serve at the same time both the individual interests of teachers and those of the whole education system. It is noteworthy that the teacher union in The Gambia provides constructive inputs to the teacher policy dialogue. As an example, the union has just led an objective assessment of teachers’ skills and performances (See Annex Note 7.3 for further details on the Gambia Teacher Union and on supervision and monitoring mechanisms). Teacher Characteristics99 In 2009, the total number of teachers in all schools (excluding madrassa and Koranic teachers) was estimated at 7,546, of which 6,216 (82.4 percent) were working in government and grant-aided schools.100 The 2009 head-count, although not exhaustive, offers some information on teacher characteristics:101 (i) Three-quarters of teachers working in government and grant-aided schools are qualified teachers (QTs), whereas teacher trainees (TTs) account for 12 percent of the government- funded teaching force; (ii) The reliance on contract teachers (CTs) is limited: they represent barely two percent of the global teaching force. They are mainly posted in senior secondary schools, which CHAPTER 7 could be linked to the hiring of foreign teachers and graduates to fill specific subject gaps (such as sciences and math); (iii) The share of teachers with qualifications (including QTs and CTs) is above average in post-primary levels (87 percent and 89 percent for upper basic and senior secondary schools respectively).102 Conversely, the share of teacher trainees and unqualified teachers is relatively lower for these cycles; MANAGEMENT ISSUES (iv) In lower basic and basic cycle schools the share of teachers holding qualifications is 71 percent and 68 percent respectively; and (v) Female teachers represent 26.5 percent of the government-funded teaching staff on average, with lower proportions at higher levels, ranging from 33 percent in lower basic schools to nine percent in senior secondary schools. 192 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) Table 7.2: Government-Funded Teacher Distribution According to Status, Qualification and Gender, by Level, 2009/10 Percent Percent LBS UBS BCS SSS Total Status Permanent Teachers (QTs) 69.8 85.7 67.8 84.2 74.0 Contract-Based Teachers 16.5 8.5 11.2 12.6 13.9 Contract Teachers (CTs) 1.6 1.5 0.5 4.5 1.7 Unqualified Teachers (UQTs) 14.9 7.0 10.7 8.1 12.2 Teacher Trainees (TTs) 13.7 5.8 20.9 3.1 12.1 Qualification Qualified (QTs and CTs) 71.4 87.2 68.3 88.8 75.7 Unqualified (UQTs and TTs) 28.6 12.8 31.7 11.2 24.3 Gender Female 32.8 22.1 17.8 8.6 26.5 Male 67.2 77.9 82.2 91.4 73.5 Source: MoBSE/Teacher head-count, 2009/10 and MoBSE/EMIS, 2009/10. Note: Based on a subsample of 4,454 teachers. Pupil to Teacher Ratios Pupil to teacher ratios (PTR) improve with each successive level of education, from 41 to 1 in lower basic (below the national target of 45 to 1), to 38 to 1 in upper basic and 33 to 1 in senior secondary, (See Figure 7.2). The pattern for the pupil to qualified teacher ratio (PqTR) is similar, although the ratios are markedly higher, ranging from 58 to 1 in lower basic, to 47 to 1 in upper basic, and 37 to 1 in senior secondary schools. Figure 7.2: Pupil to Teacher Ratio (Total and Qualified Government-Funded Teachers), and Share of those Qualified, by Level, 2009/10 PTR, PqTR, and Percent 100 75 90 58.3 80 60 89 70 Percent 46.7 60 Ratio 45 41.3 37.0 50 38.2 40 32.8 30 71 82 30 20 15 10 29 18 11 0 0 LBE UBE SSE Qualified (%) Unqualified (%) PTR PqTR Source: MoBSE/EMIS 2009/10 and MoBSE/Head-Count of Teachers, 2009/10. Note: Qualified teachers include QTs and CTs. The figure includes government and grant-aided schools. The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 193 The Gambia’s PTR at lower basic level is among the lower Sub-Saharan African countries’ ratios (the SSA average is 49 students per teacher), and very close to the Fast-Track Initiative benchmark of 40 to 1. Central African Republic has the highest ratio with about 104 students per teacher (See Figure 7.3 below). Figure 7.3: Primary Level Pupil to Teacher Ratio in Government-Funded Schools, Various Sub- Saharan African Countries, 2008 or LAY PTR 120 104 90 80 Ratio 60 49 41 30 24 0 Mali Zambia Rwanda Congo Malawi São Tomé Equatorial Guinea Djibouti Comoros Ghana Senegal Lesotho Niger DRC Gambia, The Liberia Benin Côte d’Ivoire Sierra Leone Guinea Guinea-Bissau Kenya Eritrea SSA Average Madagascar Nigeria Burkina Faso Cameroon Tanzania Burundi Uganda Mozambique Togo CAR Cape Verde CHAPTER 7 Source: Authors’ calculations based on Figure 7.2 for The Gambia and UNESCO-Pôle de Dakar, for SSA countries. However, for secondary education the situation is the reverse: The Gambia, with a PTR of 37 to 1 (UBE and SSE combined), is slightly above the SSA average, of 33 to 1. The fact that the Gambian secondary cycle tends to be underfunded might account for this situation (see Chapter 3). Attracting secondary teachers is also difficult given the small pool of candidates, as very few WASSCE graduates meet the GC and UTG teacher training entry MANAGEMENT ISSUES requirements.103 194 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) Figure 7.4: Secondary Level Pupil to Teacher Ratio in Government-Funded Schools, Various Sub-Saharan African Countries, 2008 or LAY PTR 57 37 Ratio 33 20 Malawi Uganda Saõ Tomé Sudan Equatorial Guinea Liberia Madagascar Guinea-Bissau Lesotho Namibia Benin Mauritania Rwanda Senegal Sierra Leone Burkina Faso Niger South Africa Kenya SSA Average Chad Mozambique Gambia, The Nigeria Mali Côte d’Ivoire Tanzania DRC Togo Ethiopia CAR Eritrea Guinea Source: Authors’ calculations based on Figure 7.2 for The Gambia and UNESCO-Pôle de Dakar, for SSA countries. Consistency in Teacher Deployment at Regional and District Levels Given that teacher postings are mainly decided at the regional level, a closer examination of the situation prevailing at subnational levels provides some insight as to the efficiency and consistency of the process. Some regions are relatively better endowed than others. A regional comparison of PTRs shows that the LBE ratios tend to decrease from Region 1 (53 to 1) to Region 5 (29 to 1); Region 6 is at the average level (41 to 1). It is worthy of note that only Region 1, with a PTR of 53 to 1, has a ratio somewhat higher than the national target of 45 to 1 (See Table 7.3). Although schools in Regions 1 and 2 tend to attract many teachers, especially female ones whose posting there is favored for marital and family motives, they still face a teacher shortage. Schools in these two regions tend to serve very populated and dense areas, favoring high PTRs. The same general pattern prevails for UBE, although Region 4 has a PTR among the highest in the country (42 to 1), just behind Region 1 (43 to 1). As far as senior secondary schools are concerned, Region 5 displays the highest PTR (43 to 1) followed by Region 1 (42 to 1), and the lowest PTR is that of Region 2 (25 to 1). While in Region 1, the high level of PTRs could be linked to the population density of the catchment areas, in the other regions high PTRs might be explained by the difficulty in attracting and retaining teachers. The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 195 Table 7.3: Pupil to Teacher Ratio (Total and Qualified Government-Funded Teachers), and Share of those Qualified, by Level and Region, 2009/10 PTR, PqTR, and Percent LBE UBE SSE PTR PqTR Qualified (%) PTR PqTR Qualified (%) PTR PqTR Qualified (%) Region 1 53 67 79 43 48 89 42 45 95 Region 2 43 60 72 38 46 82 25 29 86 Region 3 38 54 70 37 48 77 29 37 78 Region 4 37 60 63 42 52 80 27 27 100 Region 5 29 42 70 30 39 77 43 47 91 Region 6 41 67 61 37 55 68 26 30 84 National 41 58 71 38 47 82 33 37 89 Source: Authors’ estimation based on MoBSE/EMIS, 2009/10 data and MoBSE/teacher head-count, 2009/10. Note: Qualified teachers include QTs and CTs. Based on government and grant-aided schools. The proportions of qualified teachers suggest important regional disparities. Region 1 is blessed with the highest shares at the basic level (79 percent and 89 percent in LBE and UBE respectively), whereas the lowest shares are observed in Region 6 (61 percent and 68 percent, respectively). However the ratios provide a somewhat different picture: although the regional disparities are still evident, when taking the size of the student population into account in the posting of teachers, Region 1 is in fact one of the most disadvantaged. For lower basic the PqTR is the highest (67 to 1, on a par with Region 6) and for upper basic, it is above average at 48 to 1 (the range being 39 to 1 in Region 5, to 55 to 1 in Region 6). CHAPTER 7 It is to improve the PqTRs that the MoBSE, in cooperation with development partners, has embarked on the PTC Extension programme, providing in-service training to unqualified teachers (See Footnote 98). A similar programme, targeting unqualified teachers at UBE and SSE levels to favor a rapid eradication of unqualified teachers at these levels over time, should be considered. MANAGEMENT ISSUES This uneven deployment of teachers is reflected at the district level. Wide district variations in the lower basic PTRs are observed, from 23.5 to 1 in Niani to 56 to 1 in Kanifing, pointing to the uneven posting of teachers within regions (See Map 7.1). For instance, PTRs in Region 2 range from 32 to 1 in Foni Kansala to 52 to 1 in Kombo South. This uneven deployment could somehow be related to the distribution of small schools (more concentrated in some districts), known to have lower PTRs. 196 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) Map 7.1: Lower Basic Level PTR in Government-Funded Schools, by District, 2009/10 Upper Saloum Nianija Lower Saloum Niamina East Niamina West Niamina Dankunku Niani Sami Jokadu Central Upper Baddibou Jangjangbureh Banjul Lower Niumi Lower Baddibou Baddibou Wuli KMC Jarra Falladu West Fulladu Kiang Jarra Jarra East Sandu Kombo North Upper Niumi East West Central Kiang West Kantora Kombo Kiang South Kombo Central Central Falladu East Fulladu Kombo Foni Foni Foni Foni Jerrol Jarrol East Brefet Bintang Foni Bondali Kansala PTR LBE < 25 (2) 25 to 30 (3) 35 to 40 (8) 30 to 35 (11) > 40 (13) Source: Authors’ estimation based on MoBSE/EMIS, 2009/10 data and MoBSE/teacher head-count, 2009/10. Disparities are even more marked when the qualification of teachers is taken into account. Again in Region 2, PqTRs vary from 50 to 1 to a startling 107 to 1 (See Map 7.2). Similar patterns apply to the other regions, although to a slighter degree. Regions 4, 5 and 6 show more even teacher deployment patterns, including for qualified teachers. (3) 3 (8) 3 (11) > by Map 7.2: Lower Basic Level PqTR in Government-Funded5Schools, (11)District, 2009/10 (7) > Upper Saloum Nianija Lower Saloum Niamina East Niamina West Niamina Dankunku Niani Sami Jokadu Central Upper Baddibou Jangjangbureh Banjul Lower Niumi Lower Baddibou Baddibou Wuli KMC Jarra Fulladu Falladu West Kiang Jarra Jarra East Sandu Kombo North Upper Niumi East West Central Kiang West Kantora Kombo Kiang South Kombo Central Central Fulladu Falladu East Kombo Foni Foni Jarrol Foni Foni Jerrol East Brefet Bintang Foni Bondali Kansala PqTR LBE < 40 (4) 50 to 60 (11) 40 to 50 (7) > 60 (15) 3 (16) Source: Authors’ estimation based on MoBSE/EMIS, 2009/10 data and MoBSE/teacher head-count, 2009/10. (9) > Important intra-regional variations in teacher posting are also observed at the upper basic level, particularly in Regions 2 and 6 (See Map 7.3). 3 (16) (9) > 5 (7) (15) > The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 197 (3) 3 (8) 3 (11) > 5 (11) (7) > Map 7.3: Upper Basic Level PTR in Government-Funded Schools, by District, 2009/10 Upper Saloum Nianija Lower Saloum Niamina East Niamina West Niamina Dankunku Niani Sami Jokadu Central Upper Baddibou Jangjangbureh Banjul Lower Niumi Lower Baddibou Baddibou Wuli KMC Jarra Fulladu Falladu West Kiang Jarra Jarra East Sandu Kombo North Upper Niumi East West Central Kiang West Kantora Kombo Kiang South Kombo Central Central 5 (11) Fulladu Falladu East Kombo Foni Foni Jarrol Foni Foni Jerrol East Brefet Bintang Foni Bondali (7) > Kansala PTR UBE < 30 (9) 35 to 45 (16) 30 to 35 (9) > 45 (3) Source: Authors’ estimation based on MoBSE/EMIS, 2009/10 data and MoBSE/teacher head-count, 2009/10. Again, district disparities in the deployment of qualified teachers are more marked, such as in Region 6 where the PqTR ranges from 47 to 1, to 86 to 1 (See Map 7.4).104 This raises concerns about the ability of some regions and districts to attract and retain qualified teachers in given schools. Also, much as the reliance on unqualified teachers is helping to 3 (16) loosen the teacher supply constraint, at the same time it raises a teaching quality issue.105 (9) > (7) Map 7.4: Upper Basic Level PqTR in Government-Funded5Schools, by District, 2009/10 CHAPTER 7 (15) > Upper Saloum Nianija Lower Saloum Niamina East Niamina West Niamina Dankunku Niani Sami Jokadu Central Upper Baddibou Jangjangbureh Banjul Lower Niumi Lower Baddibou Baddibou Wuli KMC Jarra Fulladu Falladu West Kiang Jarra Jarra East Sandu Kombo North Upper Niumi East West Central Kiang West Kantora Kombo Kiang South Kombo Central Central Fulladu Falladu East MANAGEMENT ISSUES Kombo Foni Foni Foni Jarrol Foni Jerrol East Brefet Bintang Foni Bondali Kansala PqTR UBE < 40 (10) 50 to 60 (7) 40 to 50 (15) > 60 (5) (2) 6 5 (7) Source: Authors’ estimation based on MoBSE/EMIS, 2009/10 data and MoBSE/teacher head-count, 2009/10. Consistency in Teacher Deployment at the School Level Just as it is important to have the right number of teachers, it is equally important to ensure they are adequately allocated to schools, for both efficiency and equity reasons. The above are analysis provided some indication as to how well teachers 6 allocated among regions and (2) districts. The analysis is deepened by analyzing the level of coherence in teacher posting at 5 (7) (3) 6 (3) 5 (2) 7 198 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) the school level. This analysis is based on the principle that the number of teachers in a school should be proportional to the number of students. Consequently, schools with the same number of students should have roughly the same number of teachers.106 The relationship between the number of students and the number of teachers at the school level can be graphically represented by plotting the number of students in each school against the number of teachers in each school. Figure 7.5 below illustrates this relationship for all government and grant-aided schools in 2009/10. The positive relationship between both variables is clear, but wide variations can be observed across schools: schools with 10 7 teachers can have anything from 213 to 914 students. On the other hand, schools with 185 students can have anything between four and nine teachers. To further analyze the problem of consistency and establish international comparisons, the R² determination coefficient is generally used to appreciate the quality of the relationship between the number of pupils and the number of teachers. Its value ranges from zero to 100; the closer to 100, the stronger the relationship, and the greater the consistency. Figure 7.5: Teacher Posting Consistency at the Lower Basic Level, Government-Funded Schools, 2009/10 R2 Coefficient, Percent 80 70 y=0.0174x + 2.8822 Number of Teachers 60 R2 = 0.869 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 Number of Students Source: Authors’ estimation based on MoBSE/EMIS, 2009/10 data and MoBSE/teacher head-count, 2009/10. The R² value for The Gambia indicates that on average 87 percent of teacher postings are based on student enrollment, and only 13 percent of teacher postings are incoherent. Teacher posting is less consistent in upper basic level schools, for which the R² value is 78.6, and is plainly incoherent in senior secondary schools, where only 47 percent of teachers are allocated according to the number of students. This latter situation is attributed to SSE teacher specialization. The level of consistency in teacher posting in The Gambia is high compared to the sample of Sub-Saharan African countries, both at the primary level, with coefficients of 87 and 71 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 199 respectively (See Figure 7.6) and at the upper basic level (coefficients of 79 and 69 respectively). Figure 7.6: Teacher Posting Consistency at the Lower Basic Level, Government-Funded Schools, The Gambia and Various SSA Countries, 2009 or LAY R2 Coefficient, Percent Liberia 43 Benin Burundi CAR Malawi Congo Mali Chad Angola SSA Average 71 Niger Mauritania Burkina Faso Guinea-Bissau Madagascar Lesotho Gambia, The 87 Djibouti Guinea Cape-Verde 96 0 20 40 60 80 100 CHAPTER 7 Source: Authors’ estimation based on EMIS, 2009/10 data and MoBSE/teacher head-count, 2009/10. The Figure 7.7 below gives the regional R² coefficient values for government and grant- aided lower basic level schools for 2009/10. Region 2 displays the highest level of teacher posting consistency (R² of 91) followed by Region 3 (R² of 82) and Regions 1 and 4 (R² of 78). Poor coherence in teacher posting is found in Regions 5 and 6 (R²s of 58 and 48 MANAGEMENT ISSUES respectively), which indicates strong weaknesses in teacher management in these two regions. Gaining some insights into management practices in Region 2 could help the other regions with weaker administrative teacher management. 4 Figure 7.7: Teacher Posting Consistency in Government-Funded Lower Basic Schools,by Region, 2009/10 R2 Coefficient (%), Percent 100 91 82 78 78 80 R2 (%) 58 60 48 40 20 0 Region 1 Region 2 Region 3 Region 4 Region 5 Region 6 Source: Authors’ estimation based on MOBES/EMIS, 2009/10 data and MoBSE/teacher head-count, 2009/10. 200 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) Textbook Management107 The procurement of textbooks is carried out through a bidding process managed by the Office of the Permanent Secretary’s procurement unit. Publication and supply are advertised through local media, and are usually open to both national and international bidders. The selected publishers supply the textbooks to the ministry, whose services unit coordinates the distribution to schools with the regional education offices. Some issues with this supply- chain have been noted, related to the long delays between the stages of production, purchase and supply. These are important issues to be addressed as soon as possible. Many students still do not have textbooks. Based on the allocation of math and English textbooks in lower basic government schools for 2009/10, there is a book for every 1.7 students on average (See Table 7.4). Variations across grades indicate that the pupil to textbook ratio varies between 1.3 to 1 for Grade 5 and 2.1 to 1 for Grade 4 (for English textbooks; the latter ratio is slightly lower for math, at 1.9 to 1).108 Overall, Grades 1 to 4 are in shortest supply, in both subjects. This is partly due to the fact that the textbooks printed for these grades in 2006 were insufficient to cater for the growth in the student population.109 The situation in 2010/11 should improve significantly with the printing and distribution of new books. Table 7.4: English and Math Textbook Distribution in Lower Basic Government Schools, by Grade, 2009/10 Pupil to Textbook Ratios and R² Coefficients (%), Percent English Textbooks Mathematics Textbooks Ratio R2 (%) Ratio R2 (%) Grade 1 1.8:1 48.5 1.8:1 35.5 Grade 2 1.9:1 50.1 1.7:1 58.1 Grade 3 2.0:1 60.3 1.8:1 51.0 Grade 4 2.1:1 60.1 1.9:1 65.1 Grade 5 1.3:1 82.2 1.3:1 78.8 Grade 6 1.4:1 78.7 1.4:1 72.8 Average 1.7:1 74.3 1.7:1 73.6 Source: Authors’ calculations based on EMIS, 2009/10 data. Note: Calculations are based on 244 basic government schools with textbooks, accounting for 60 percent of the school sample. Only useful textbooks are considered in the computation of the ratios (See Footnote 107). The consistency in textbook allocation, measured by the R² coefficient, is poor, especially for the lower grades. On average, 74 percent of the distribution of textbooks is related to the number of students. Textbook allocation is more consistent with student distribution in Grades 5 and 6, with average R² coefficients of 80 and 76 for English and math respectively. The consistency in allocation is poorest for Grade 1 math books, where only 35 percent of the distribution is directly related to student numbers. The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 201 In comparison with other countries for which equivalent information was available, The Gambia’s textbook allocation is considerably more coherent (See Table 7.5). Table 7.5: Cross-Country Comparison of Textbook Allocation Coherence in Primary Level Government Schools, 2009 or LAY R² Coefficients (%), Percent English/French Math Gambia, The (2009/10) 74.3 73.6 Burkina Faso (2006/07) 48.4 51.3 Mali (2007/08) 18.8 14.5 RCA (2003/04) 8.0 14.0 Source: CSRs. Economies of Scale Related to School Size When analyzing global or average trends, it is implicitly assumed that resources per student are constant, regardless of the size of the school in which students are enrolled. This hypothesis does not always hold, because the average cost per student may decrease with the number of students. Certain fixed costs, such as the remuneration of specialized teachers and of school administrative and support staff, are spread out among all students. CHAPTER 7 Economies of scale in service delivery may therefore occur, with unit costs falling as enrollment increases. Gambian unit costs can vary considerably according to school size, from an estimated D 1,943 in schools with 100 students to D 745 in large schools enrolling 2,000 students and above; the difference per student being equivalent to D 1,198 (See Figure 7.8).110 Most of the economies of scale are achieved once schools reach an enrollment level of 300 students, MANAGEMENT ISSUES where unit costs are estimated at D 1,102; costs continue to drop with greater school size thereafter, although marginally. Conversely, unit costs rise fast as schools’ pupil populations decrease. This shows that small schools are much more expensive to run than large schools, although they may offer students the benefit of being located close to their homes. Indeed, the current network of government and grant-aided schools tends to stress proximity over optimum size, which contributes to progress towards universal access to education. Currently, although the average size of government and grant-aided lower basic schools is 437 students, the distribution shows significant scope to improve economies of scale: 71.3 percent have 300 students or less, representing however only 28 percent of enrollment.111 Only 12 percent of schools have more than 1,000 students, although they account for 54 percent of lower basic enrollment. Expanding the size of those small schools (not closing them) rather than opening new schools as the system expands could allow for important economies of scale. 202 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) Figure 7.8: Estimated Government-Funded Lower Basic School Unit Costs, by School Size, 2009/10 4,000 Units Costs (Dalasis) 71.3% Optimal 28.7% of 3,000 of schools School Schools Size : 300 2,000 1,000 0 200 400 600 800 1.000 Number of Students Source: Authors’ simulation based on the regression explained in Annex Note 7.2. Note: Unit costs are based on teaching staff wages only. Economies of scale can also be achieved at the upper basic level. A similar exercise was conducted for government-funded upper basic schools, based on the cost of teaching staff.112 Overall, the relationship between costs and school size is very similar to the one observed at the primary level, with unit costs ranging from an estimated D 2,528 in schools with 100 students to D 958 in schools with 2,000 students, equivalent to a dispersion of D 1,570 (See Figure 7.9). Unit spending tends to level out as school size reaches 400 students, indicating the optimal size. The distribution of upper basic schools is however not as inefficient as that of lower basic institutions. Just 37.5 percent of schools are below the optimum size, accounting for 10.6 percent of enrollment.113 Again, increasing enrollment in small schools could be a cost- effective measure to expand the access to education at this level. Any such initiatives should however be dealt with on a case to case basis, closely considering individual catchment areas. Figure 7.9: Estimated Government-Funded Upper Basic School Unit Costs, by School Size, 2009/10 3,000 Units Costs (Dalasis) 2,500 37.5% Optimal 72.5% of 2,000 of Schools School Schools Size : 400 1,500 1,000 500 - 0 200 400 600 800 1.000 Number of Students Source: Authors’ simulation based on the regression explained in Annex Note 7.2. Note: Unit costs only include teaching staff wages. The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 203 Pedagogical Management: Transformation of Inputs into Learning Outcomes Ideally, the transformation of education resources into learning achievements at the school level should be homogenous across schools and optimal, maximizing student learning achievements with the level of resources invested. The analysis of the relationship between schools’ endowments and students’ results will be conducted at both the lower basic and upper basic levels. Relationship between School Resources and Academic Performance The analysis for lower basic schools is based on the NAT Grade 5 scores analyzed in Chapter 4 and unit costs based on teacher expenditures (differentiated according to qualification). The relationship between unit costs and the NAT scores is weak, in two respects: (i) for a given score, schools may have unit costs ranging from D 250 to D 3,750, equivalent to a multiplier of 15. For instance, scores of 85 are obtained by students in schools where unit costs vary between D 746 to D 1,947; and (ii) for a given unit cost, results can vary from 30 to 120, equivalent to a multiplier of four (See Figure 7.10). For the upper basic level, the analysis is based on GABECE results, with similar results: (i) CHAPTER 7 unit costs vary considerably among schools obtaining similar GABECE results; and (ii) results vary considerably among schools with similar unit costs. For example, schools that score 50.5 have unit costs that vary between D 519 and D 2,056. Better endowed schools do therefore not systematically perform better; and schools with poor results are not always comparatively underfinanced. These patterns are not unique to The Gambia, and can be found in most African countries. MANAGEMENT ISSUES 204 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 4 Figure 7.10: Relationship between Learning Achievements and Unit Costs, Lower and Upper Basic Levels, 2009 Lower Basic Upper Basic 140 55.0 GABECE Mean Aggregate 120 Grade 5 NAT Score 50.0 100 45.0 80 60 40.0 40 35.0 20 0 30.0 2,000 4,000 2,000 4,000 Unit Cost (Dalasis) Unit Cost (Dalasis) Source: NAT, 2009 and GABELE 2009, MoBES/EMIS 2008/09. Note: Unit costs only include teachers’ salaries, differentiated according to teacher qualification (qualified, unqualified). Pedagogical management is clearly below par: there appears to be virtually no relation between a school’s resources and its students’ academic performance. This is not to say that resources are not important. What it suggests is that the way resources are being used and managed at the school and classroom levels are even more important. This refers to many aspects related to teachers’ and head teachers’ attributes (such as teachers’ pedagogical approaches and skills; classroom management practices, including teaching time; head teachers’ management skills and leadership; the motivation of the whole school team, and so on). This also raises a supervision and inspection issue. Supervision/Inspection and Accountability at the School Level 114 The high degree of randomness in the relationship between school inputs and pedagogical outcomes as measured above also highlights the existence of strong weaknesses in the pedagogical supervision of the system and the absence of results-based management practices. It is a domain in which improvements should be pursued given that results are not currently used to determine which schools require closer supervision. Such a policy would involve important changes in the way the system is managed and would imply among other measures, the implementation of an appropriate tool for monitoring quality at the school level. Indeed, when considering the improvement of the quality of the system, the optimal allocation of resources should seek to take progress made in school results in relation to resources invested into account. Beyond the issue of resource allocation, the way resources are used appears to be a major factor influencing the level of learning outcomes. Improving supervision and accountability The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 205 mechanisms at the local level are known to be effective interventions. Sustaining the effort to train school management committees and teachers in certain school management practices, and making schools more accountable to communities for the performance of pupils and use of resources are valid options in The Gambia. The current management programme delivered by the University of The Gambia to head teachers might also contribute, as should the Whole School Development Programme coupled with the performance management system. School report cards with comparative data (posted at the school and distributed to school committees, parent-teacher associations, cluster monitors and the regional education directorates) will also enhance school-based management and supervision mechanisms and raise accountability by increasing transparency and control by school stakeholders.115 CHAPTER 7 MANAGEMENT ISSUES 206 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) Notes 84 Although most GTTI and UTG teacher trainees already occupy teaching positions, the training programme is still considered as pre-service, as it is meant for teachers that have never taught the level for which they will graduate. In addition, direct entry without teaching experience prevails. 85 According to posting regulations, teachers can stay in a region for a maximum of five years after which they can request a transfer to another region if they so wish. Also, teachers should stay in their school for a minimum of three years before requesting a transfer to another school in the same region. Postings may be changed in certain special cases, like severe illness or family unification. In such instances, the Permanent Secretary can order the transfer by notifying the directors involved. The main transfer period is nevertheless the summer break, before school starts. 86 A proportional distribution is established on the basis of the ratio of each region’s requirement to the total teacher supply. See Annex Note 7.1 for a description of the teacher allocation formula used by HRD. 87 The posting committee comprises the Permanent Secretary as the chairperson, the directors of Human Resources, Planning, Basic Education, Standard and Quality Assurance and Science and Technology and all six regional directors. 88 The main eligibility criterion is that a school be located at least three kilometers from the main road. Hardship allowances are equivalent to 30 percent of the base salary in Regions 3 and 4, and 35 percent and 40 percent in Regions 5 and 6, respectively. Teachers working in lower basic government and grant-aided schools are entitled to this allowance, regardless their status. Teachers working in upper basic and senior secondary schools should be paid an allowance by their schools, the amount of which varies according to the school’s available resources, dependent on the collection of school fees. 89 The regional allowance is inexistent in Region 1, and reaches 17.5 percent of the base salary in Region 6. The remoter the posting, the higher the allowance. 90 Similar patterns are observed when the analysis is performed with qualified teachers data. 91 The GC is also restricting the number of social and environmental studies students, which are in excess supply (World Bank, 2007). 92 No formal mechanism or policy exists to compensate for lost teaching time due to teacher absenteeism. Internal arrangements might however occur at the school level, consisting of night or week-end classes, on a case to case basis. 93 Candidates whose did not obtain a credit in English are required to sit the private WASSCE to fulfill this condition before their graduation. 94 See Table 7.1 for PTC and HTC entry requirements. 95 The madrassa curriculum is the same as that of government schools, but the teaching is given in Arabic. Koranic teachers give religion classes in conventional schools, and teach each class for one period per day. 96 Gambians currently represent only 26 percent of SSE teachers. The MoBSE/EMIS’s objective is to increase this share to 52 percent by 2015. 97 Return to service after completion runs at 90 percent (Teacher Survey Report, 2007). 98 This is a three-year intensive in-service training programme designed to support the MoBSE/EMIS in meeting the demand for qualified teachers. Indeed, the current GC capacity to train teachers is insufficient, and many potential trainees fail to join the PTC programme as they do not meet the entry requirements. The PTC extension programme therefore offers a viable alternative to train unqualified primary teachers. The programme relies on a multipronged approach of teaching delivery: distance learning using module courses, face–to-face sessions during school vacations, and classroom mentoring. The programme was first piloted in Region 5 over 2006-09. Based on the positive experience, it is being extended to other regions on a gradual basis, although the training is centralized in Region 5. Unqualified teachers in Regions 3, 4 and 6 are currently benefiting from training, while Regions 1 and 2 will be able to follow the course from 2012, and complete it by 2015 (BESPOR, 2010). 99 This section differentiates between lower basic schools (LBS), upper basic schools (UPS), and basic cycle schools (BCS) that offer both lower and upper basic levels. Throughout the rest of the report, the lower and upper basic education levels used effectively comprehend their respective level schools, and the share of basic level schools corresponding to their level, to offer a better understanding of the education situation by level, and allow for international comparisons. See Chapter 2 for a detailed explanation of school types and level classifications. The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 207 100 Given that teachers in grant-aided schools are paid by the government, in the current analysis they are considered with government school teachers. Koranic teachers are not considered part of the regular teaching staff because they only teach one hour per day per class, and they are estimated at less than eight percent of the total teaching force. Because teachers are not recorded specifically by the EMIS (indeed the EMIS tends to track the number of school staff in general without really distinguishing between teaching and non-teaching staff), one can not provide reliable trends of teachers or qualified teachers over the years. 101 The 2009 head-count covered 81 percent of government school staff, 57 percent of grant-aided school staff and 25 percent of private school staff. Upper basic and senior secondary schools tended to be under-represented in the survey. 102 Most contract-teachers are retired teachers or foreigners with relevant teaching qualifications. 103 In 2008/09, out of the 8,070 students who sat the WASSCE exams, only 13 percent (1,057) obtained a credit in English and 3 percent (258) a credit in math (See Chapter 4). 104 The shares of qualified lower and upper basic teachers by district are shown in Annex Maps 7.1 and 7.2. 105 Indeed, on the basis of a teacher assessment performed in 2009, concerns have been voiced about the current low knowledge of lower basic teachers, especially in math and English. Although PTC holders tend not to perform well, teachers with no training fared the worst (Blimpo et al., 2010). 106 See Annex Note 7.1 for the formula used by MoBSE/EMIS to determine teacher postings at the school level. 107 In this section, only government schools with textbooks have been considered in the computation because of the difficulty in distinguishing between schools with no textbooks and those for which data were missing. Information was available for 60 percent of schools. In the computation of the pupil to textbook ratio, only useful textbooks were considered: when for a given subject there were more textbooks than students, the number of textbooks was capped to the number of students in the related grade. This tends to favorably bias the results. 108 Some regional disparities in the allocation of books are also apparent (See Annex Figure 7.1). Although the disparities are minor, Grade 1 has a more pronounced shortage, which particularly affects Region 4, where 2.2 students have CHAPTER 7 to share a single book. 109 Also, younger children take less care of books, making greater replacements necessary in the early grades. 110 See Annex Note 7.2 for a detailed presentation of the methodology used to carry out this analysis. 111 50 percent have less than 202 students (representing 16 percent of enrollment) and 25 percent have less than 142 students (representing six percent of enrollment). Private lower basic schools have 253 students on average. 112 See Annex Note 7.2 for details of the methodology used to estimate teaching staff unit costs. MANAGEMENT ISSUES 113 25 percent of government-funded schools host 268 students or less, accounting for 5.4 percent of total enrollment. 114 See Annex Note 7.3 for a review of existing monitoring and supervision mechanisms. 115 See Annex Note 7.4 for a summary of the main policy recommendations formulated on the basis of the findings. 208 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) ANNEXES The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 209 CHAPTER 1 ANNEXES Annex Table 1.1: Human Development Index, Gini Coefficient, and Poverty Line, for ECOWAS Countries, 2010 HDI Rank Income Gini % of Population Living ECOWAS Countries (Out of 169) Coefficient under the Poverty Line Benin 134 38.6 47.3 Burkina Faso 161 39.6 56.5 Cape Verde 118 50.4 20.6 Côte d’Ivoire 149 48.8 23.3 Gambia, The 151 47.7 34.3 CHAPTER 1 ANNEXES Ghana 130 42.8 30.0 Guinea 156 43.3 70.1 Guinea-Bissau 164 35.5 48.8 Liberia 162 52.6 83.7 Mali 160 39.0 51.4 Niger 167 43.9 65.5 Nigeria 142 42.9 64.4 Senegal 144 39.2 33.5 Sierra Leone 158 42.5 53.5 Togo 139 34.4 38.7 ECOWAS Average n.a. 42.75 48.1 Source: UNDP Human Development Report, 2010. Note: The poverty line is here defined by US$ 1.5 a day, or equivalent purchasing power. 210 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) Annex Table 1.2: HIV/AIDS Prevalence, and Children Orphaned by AIDS, for ECOWAS Countries, 2007 HIV/AIDS Prevalence Children Orphaned by AIDS ECOWAS Countries (15-49 Years) (% of those Aged 0-17 Years) Benin 1.2 0.7 Burkina Faso 1.4 1.7 Cape Verde 0.9 - Côte d’Ivoire 3.4 4.4 Gambia, The 0.9 0.3 Ghana 1.8 1.5 Guinea 1.3 1.2 Guinea-Bissau 2.5 1.2 Liberia 1.5 2.7 Mali 1.0 0.9 Niger 0.8 0.7 Nigeria 3.6 3.3 Senegal 0.9 0.3 Sierra Leone 1.6 0.5 Togo 3.2 2.1 ECOWAS Average 1.7 1.5 Source: UNAIDS. Annex Table 1.3: World Bank Education Composite Context Indices, for ECOWAS Countries, 2010 Social Context Economic Context Global Context ECOWAS Countries Composite Index Composite Index Composite Index Benin 48.4 44.1 46.3 Burkina Faso 38.6 47.2 39.8 Cape Verde 67.8 62.4 69.2 Côte d’Ivoire 53.1 38.3 48.3 Gambia, The 57.1 49.4 55.4 Ghana 57.1 51.4 56.2 Guinea 46.7 43.9 44.8 Guinea-Bissau 44.3 41.6 42.0 Liberia 44.3 52.3 46.0 Mali 38.4 51.6 41.6 Niger 34.3 44.5 35.3 Nigeria 49.4 58.5 52.7 Senegal 52.4 45.1 49.9 Sierra Leone 42.5 42.9 41.1 Togo 55.2 42.7 51.1 ECOWAS Average 48.6 47.7 48.0 Source: World Bank (See Annex Note 1.2 for the calculation methodology). The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 211 Annex Note 1.1: Population Estimates for The Gambia Context The availability of good population data is very important for social sectors (education, health and others) to better plan their activities. For example, in education, they are required in the computation of most of education coverage indicators and also to determine the potential demand for education (the number of students to be enrolled), the number of schools to be built, the number of teachers to be recruited, and so on. In the context of the Education Country Status Report (CSR),117 the CSR team analyzed the available population data at hand, namely the population projections by single year of age and gender provided by the Gambia Bureau of Statistics (GBoS), based on the 2003 census. Some problems were found with the data, such as growing cohorts. These issues were discussed with the GBoS management and it was decided that the national population data would need to be re-estimated. This note presents the results of these adjustments. Before presenting the methodology used to re-estimate the population at national and district levels, it presents the existing data and its imperfections to justify why this work has been done. CHAPTER 1 ANNEXES Available Data The graph below presents the 2003 census raw data and the smoothed data provided by GBoS. The smoothing was performed to correct the peaks observed for rounded ages ending in zero and five and to correct the number of children aged zero to two years, which are under reported as highlighted in Figure 1. Figure 1: Census Population Data and Smoothed Data, 2003 50,000 40,000 Population 30,000 20,000 2003 Census Raw Data 10,000 GBoS Smoothed Data 0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 Age Source: Authors’ calculations based on GBoS data. 212 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) The national population projections were based on the results of this smoothing exercise. The Table 1 presents an extract of this projection. Table 1: National Population Projection, by Single Year of Age Years 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2003 43,379 42,758 42,107 41,432 40,741 40,042 39,341 38,645 37,958 37,278 2004 47,665 46,233 44,842 43,512 42,260 41,105 40,066 39,156 38,380 37,722 2005 52,348 50,002 47,786 45,729 43,858 42,204 40,793 39,647 38,770 38,128 2006 57,432 54,069 50,938 48,078 45,524 43,320 41,502 40,097 39,110 38,487 2007 62,978 58,482 54,329 50,567 47,248 44,427 42,155 40,465 39,364 38,776 2008 69,175 63,378 58,040 53,230 49,016 45,476 42,679 40,669 39,458 38,942 2009 69,854 64,562 59,757 55,457 51,679 48,443 45,767 43,656 42,098 41,027 2010 70,202 65,555 61,417 57,747 54,504 51,647 49,134 46,928 44,991 43,297 2011 70,318 66,425 63,062 60,122 57,500 55,085 52,771 50,468 48,115 45,730 2012 70,146 67,126 64,660 62,569 60,672 58,778 56,705 54,307 51,491 48,330 Source: GBoS projections. Clearly, the correction of the 2003 data has produced a steadier evolution of the projections, but other problems have arisen, such as the irregular changes of single year of age cohorts. For example, the total number of children born in 2003 is 43,379. Three years later in 2006, these same children, aged three years, are estimated at 48,078. Two years later in 2008, aged five years, their number is 45,476 and in 2011 the same children will be eight years old and their expected number is estimated at 48,111. Between 2003 and 2006, there would have been 4,699 more children in the cohort, while between 2006 and 2008, there are about 2,600 less and between 2008 and 2011 2,600 children aged eight years reappear. The increase observed between 2003 and 2006 can only be explained by high levels of immigration. If this assumption holds true, it means that during this period, the country would have received successive waves of young immigrant children: the first, aged one in 2004; the second, aged two years in 2005; and another group aged three years in 2006. Between 2006 and 2008, there would have been massive child mortality or the children would have emigrated. Finally, between 2008 and 2011, the country would again receive a wave of young immigrants, as such alternating periods of high immigration and high emigration or mortality for this group of children. This phenomenon is observed for several other cohorts, suggesting that the projections made are not realistic. The next section presents the methodology used to re-estimate the population. The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 213 New Smoothed Population Data and Projections National Level Total Population Firstly, it is important to mention that simplicity and clarity were the main factors that led to the choice of the final methods and results presented here. It is also useful to underline that initially the team’s choice was to use the smoothed data provided by the GBoS as the basis for the new projections, but this option was subsequently abandoned insofar as the projections obtained highlighted other problems of data consistency over the long term. Finally, it was decided to perform a new smoothing of the 2003 census data before computing the new projections. In this regard, the exponential method was preferred over other methods because it provided better results. Figure 2 presents the 2003 census raw data and the new smoothed data. Figure 2: Census Population Data and New Smoothed Data (2003) 60,000 -0.0351x y=52079e CHAPTER 1 ANNEXES 50,000 R2=0.5941 Population 40,000 30,000 20,000 2003 Census Raw Data 10,000 GBoS Smoothed Data 0 0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 Age Source: Authors’ calculations based on GBoS data. The equation (Y = 52,079 * Exp(-0.035*X)) resulting from this trendline was used to re- estimate the new population data for 2003. For example, in 2003, the number of children aged three years is equal to 52,079 * Exp(-0.035*3) = 46,888 and the number of children aged 10 years is 52,079 * Exp(-0.035*10) = 36,699. The objective here is to only correct the structure of the population (age distribution), and not the total population numbers, explaining why adjustments were made so that both totals (census and smoothed data) coincide. Table 2 presents the results of this estimation, the raw data and the difference between the two, for the population aged zero to 25 years. 214 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) Table 2: Population Aged Zero to 25 years, Declared and Adjusted, 2003 Age Declared Adjusted Difference Age Declared Adjusted Difference 0 30,260 52,145 -21,885 13 33,087 33,083 4 1 32,968 50,352 -17,384 14 30,180 31,946 -1,766 2 41,301 48,620 -7,319 15 39,209 30,847 8,362 3 46,820 46,948 -128 16 30,924 29,786 1,138 4 42,572 45,333 -2,761 17 27,021 28,761 -1,740 5 43,616 43,774 -158 18 37,764 27,772 9,992 6 40,874 42,268 -1,394 19 23,471 26,817 -3,346 7 44,153 40,814 3,339 20 44,688 25,895 18,793 8 43,544 39,411 4,133 21 19,639 25,004 -5,365 9 34,017 38,055 -4,038 22 28,904 24,144 4,760 10 43,390 36,746 6,644 23 23,010 23,313 -303 11 26,581 35,482 -8,901 24 19,337 22,512 -3,175 12 37,878 34,262 3,616 25 38,721 21,737 16,984 Source: Authors’ calculations based on 2003 Census Data. By Gender To obtain data by gender, the 2003 census male raw data was also smoothed with the exponential method. Through calculating the difference with the total population data, the female population was obtained. Figure 3: Census Data and New Smoothed Data, Male Population, 2003 30,000 -0.0356x y=25,885e 25,000 R2=0.6222 Population 20,000 15,000 10,000 Census Data 5,000 Smoothed Data 0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 Age Source: Authors’ calculations based on 2003 census data. Table 3 presents the results of the estimation compared to the raw data and the gender ratio (ratio of men to women in the population), calculated from raw data and smoothed data, for some single years of age. The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 215 Table 3: Population by Gender Declared and Adjusted, 2003 Years 0 1 2 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Male Adjusted 26,151 25,226 24,334 21,843 18,245 15,239 12,729 10,632 8,881 7,418 6,196 Declared 15,436 16,722 20,914 22,239 21,876 19,194 20,661 17,191 17,765 12,918 13,422 Difference -10,715 -8,504 -3,420 396 3,631 3,955 7,932 6,559 8,884 5,500 7,226 Female Adjusted 25,994 25,125 24,286 21,931 18,501 15,607 13,166 11,105 9,367 7,900 6,663 Declared 14,824 16,246 20,387 21,377 21,514 20,015 24,027 21,530 23,911 16,008 17,547 Difference -11,170 -8,879 -3,899 -554 3,013 4,408 10,861 10,425 14,544 8,108 10,884 Gender ratio Adjusted 1.01 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.98 097 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.93 Declared 1.04 1.03 1.03 1.04 1.02 0.96 0.86 0.80 0.74 0.81 0.76 Source: Authors’ calculations based on 2003 census data. Even if the smoothing enabled the correction of the underreporting of the number of children aged zero to two years, the results in the Table 3 show that the male population aged under five years is slightly underestimated, despite being the best estimate available. CHAPTER 1 ANNEXES For example, the gender ratio at birth calculated with the smoothed data is 101, meaning that there are 101 boys for 100 girls at birth. The same indicator computed with the raw data is 104, in line with what is usually found (between 103 and 107) in countries with no gender control. Figure 4: Comparison of Gender Ratios based on Raw and Smoothed Data 1.10 1.00 Gender Ratio 0.90 0.80 Raw Data 0.70 Smoothed Data 0.60 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 Age Source: Authors’ calculations. Projections Here, the main issue is the choice of the growth rate to use for the projection: an average growth rate for all ages, or a differential rate by age. In the first case, the inter-census growth rate, between 1993 and 2003, can be used and be applied as such for future 216 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) years, or new assumptions can be made about its evolution before applying it. The inter- census growth rate is presented in the Table 4. Table 4: Inter-Census Growth Rate All Male Female 1993 1,038,145 519,950 518,195 2003 1,360,681 670,842 689,842 Average Annual Growth Rate 2.7% 2.6% 2.9% Source: Authors’ calculations based on 2003 Census Data. The choice to apply the total population average growth rate to single-age projections implies a strong assumption: indeed, the growth rate is far from being uniform across ages. To take this into account, an average growth rate by single year of age was used. Given the problem of structure by age reported earlier for 2003 data (and also found in the 1993 census data), national data were not used to compute these rates. The UN population division growth rates (2008 revision) were relied upon to project the Gambian population. It is worth noting that these rates already take into account changes in fertility, mortality and migration. Table 5: Single-Year of Age Average Annual Growth Rates, between 2003 and 2020 Years 0 1 3 5 7 9 10 12 13 15 17 19 20 25 Total (000) 2003 51.3 49.9 47.0 44.0 41.0 38.1 36.6 33.9 32.6 30.1 27.8 26.2 25.5 22.5 2020 64.3 63.3 61.3 59.4 57.6 55.9 55.0 53.2 52.3 50.4 48.4 46.2 45.0 38.5 Average annual growth rate 1,34% 1.41% 1.58% 1.78% 2.02% 2.28% 2.42% 2.69% 2.83% 3.08% 3.31% 3.38% 3.39% 3.22% Male (000) 2003 25.9 25.2 23.7 22.1 20.6 19.1 18.4 17.0 16.3 15.0 13.9 13.1 12.7 11.1 2020 32.0 31.4 30.4 29.5 28.6 27.7 27.2 26.3 25.8 24.8 23.7 22.6 22.0 18.5 Average annual growth rate 1.24% 1.31% 1.49% 1.70% 1.94% 2.20% 2.34% 2.61% 2.74% 2.99% 3.19% 3.26% 3.27% 3.06% Source: Authors’ calculations based on UN population data, 2008 revision. Applying these average rates to the 2003 smoothed data gives the results presented in Table 6. The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 217 Table 6: Presentation of 2003 Data and Projections for Some Single-Years of Age, 2004-12 Years Total 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2003 1360681 52145 50352 48620 46948 45333 43774 42268 40814 39411 38055 2004 1397997 52845 51061 49343 47687 46091 44553 43069 41638 40257 38923 2005 1436336 53555 51781 50076 48438 46863 45346 43886 42478 41121 39811 2006 1475726 54274 52511 50820 49201 47647 46153 44718 43336 42004 40719 2007 1516197 55003 53251 51576 49976 48444 46975 45566 44210 42906 41647 2008 1557778 55741 54001 52342 50763 49254 47811 46430 45102 43828 42597 2009 1600499 56490 54762 53120 51563 50079 48662 47310 46013 44769 43569 2010 1644391 57248 55534 53910 52375 50917 49529 48207 46941 45730 44562 2011 1689487 58017 56317 54711 53200 51768 50410 49121 47889 46712 45579 2012 1735820 58796 57111 55525 54038 52635 51308 50052 48855 47715 46618 Source: GBoS projections. The new projections solve the issue of growing cohorts mentioned earlier. Comparison This section compares the GBoS and new population projection estimates for the primary CHAPTER 1 ANNEXES school-aged group (seven years old and seven to twelve years old) that is used to compute the gross intake rate and gross enrollment ratio. Figures 5 and 6 show the differences in the population projections. Major variations are apparent after 2008: with the GBoS projection, the population aged seven years and the group of those aged seven to twelve years grow faster than in the new projection. This implies that due to this significant increase in the potential school-aged population, even if enrollments increase, the gross intake rate and the gross enrollment ratio will start to decrease around 2010. Figure 5: Population Growth for Children Aged Seven Years 80,000 60,000 40,000 GBoS Projection 20,000 New Projection 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 218 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) Figure 6: Population Growth for Children Aged Seven to 12 Years 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 GBoS Projection 1 100,000 New Projection 1 0 1 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 District Level At the district level, the projections were carried out for specific age-groups (under three years, three to six years, 7 to 12 years, 13 to 15 years, 16 to 18 years and 19 to 40 years), because the small size of some districts does not allow for accurate projections by single year of age. These age-groups are those which are usually used to compute the GER for different education levels, respectively preschool, lower basic, upper basic and senior secondary. Their weight by district was calculated on the basis of the 1993 and 2003 censuses’ national age structure. Within each age group, the sum of the weights of all districts is equal to one. For the 2004-20 period, the weights were calculated assuming that the weight of each district in the total population will continue to change in the same trend as observed between 1993 and 2003. This assumption has the advantage of taking into account the mortality and fertility dynamics within each district as well as the dynamic of migration between them, especially given that these data are not available at the district level. From 2003 to 2020, the population by district for each year is obtained by multiplying the district age group weight by the corresponding population at the national level. This methodology was not used for Banjul and Kanifing districts however, because between 1993 and 2003, the population of the three districts of Banjul (south, central and north) has been migrating to the Kanifing suburb; and so applying the same methodology to Banjul would have statistically eliminated its population by 2020. In the case of Banjul, a trend projection of the number of inhabitants was made with the 2003 smoothed data, by using the past trend observed between the two censuses. The 1993 census data were also smoothed before calculating the trend. Data for Kanifing were obtained by subtracting the sum of the population of all districts from the total national population. Table 7 presents the change in the weights by district. The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 219 Table 7: Percentage Change in the Population District Weighting Under 3 Years 3 - 6 Years 1993 2003 2010 2020 1993 2003 2010 2020 BANJUL_SOUTH 0,70 0,44 0,19 0,11 0,61 0,39 0,25 0,12 BANJUL_CENTRAL 0,86 0,58 0,23 0,11 0,68 0,44 0,30 0,16 BANJUL_NORTH 1,51 1,02 0,47 0,29 1,28 0,88 0,63 0,41 KANIFING 19,98 21,65 23,25 24,29 17,41 19,22 20,41 21,85 KOMBO_NORTH 8,41 12,58 15,51 19,69 7,55 11,55 14,35 18,34 KOMBO_SOUTH 4,24 4,96 5,47 6,19 4,00 4,48 4,81 5,29 KOMBO_CENTRAL 5,53 6,14 6,57 7,19 5,09 5,83 6,35 7,08 KOMBO_EAST 2,16 2,20 2,23 2,28 2,10 2,25 2,36 2,51 FONI_BREFET 0,83 0,88 0,91 0,96 0,85 0,86 0,86 0,87 FONI_BINTANG 1,10 1,09 1,08 1,08 1,25 1,16 1,10 1,02 FONI_KANSALA 0,68 0,68 0,68 0,68 0,83 0,81 0,79 0,76 FONI_BONDALI 0,40 0,48 0,53 0,61 0,48 0,50 0,52 0,55 FONI_JARROL 0,46 0,38 0,33 0,25 0,53 0,40 0,30 0,16 KIANG_WEST 1,39 1,23 1,12 0,96 1,57 1,30 1,12 0,86 KIANG_CENTRAL 0,72 0,57 0,47 0,33 0,78 0,68 0,60 0,50 KIANG_EAST 0,64 0,50 0,41 0,28 0,67 0,52 0,41 0,26 CHAPTER 1 ANNEXES JARRA_WEST 2,11 1,69 1,41 1,00 2,16 1,76 1,48 1,07 JARRA_CENTRAL 0,62 0,49 0,39 0,26 0,65 0,51 0,40 0,25 JARRA_EAST 1,11 0,94 0,82 0,66 1,16 1,03 0,94 0,81 LOWER_NUIMI 3,51 3,61 3,68 3,79 3,55 3,42 3,32 3,19 UPPER_NUIMI 2,31 1,99 1,76 1,44 2,30 2,05 1,87 1,61 JOKADU 1,60 1,58 1,58 1,57 1,75 1,57 1,44 1,26 LOWER_BADDIBU 1,52 1,13 0,85 0,45 1,59 1,24 1,00 0,65 CENTRAL_BADDIBU 1,51 1,19 0,98 0,66 1,74 1,32 1,02 0,60 UPPER_BADDIBU 5,48 4,06 3,07 1,66 5,92 4,58 3,65 2,32 LOWER_SALOUM 1,29 0,88 0,60 0,20 1,41 1,11 0,90 0,60 UPPER_SALOUM 1,24 1,15 1,09 1,01 1,34 1,37 1,40 1,43 NIANIJA 0,63 0,71 0,77 0,85 0,70 0,75 0,78 0,83 NIANI 1,88 1,79 1,72 1,63 2,06 1,96 1,89 1,78 SAMI 1,65 1,54 1,47 1,36 1,80 1,72 1,66 1,58 NIAMINA_DANKUNKU 0,56 0,47 0,41 0,31 0,57 0,48 0,41 0,31 NIAMINA_WEST 0,58 0,57 0,57 0,56 0,61 0,58 0,56 0,54 NIAMINA_ EAST 1,60 1,47 1,38 1,25 1,69 1,73 1,76 1,79 FULADU_WEST 6,07 5,40 4,93 4,26 6,28 6,07 5,92 5,71 JANJANBUREH 0,22 0,14 0,09 0,01 0,22 0,18 0,15 0,11 FULADU_EAST 7,73 7,24 6,89 6,39 8,97 7,86 7,09 5,99 KANTORA 2,73 2,12 1,69 1,07 3,09 2,48 2,05 1,43 WULI 3,02 3,03 3,04 3,04 3,13 3,33 3,47 3,67 SANDU 1,46 1,40 1,36 1,30 1,59 1,63 1,66 1,70 Total 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 Source: Authors’ calculations. 220 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 7 - 12 Years 13 - 15 Years 1993 2003 2010 2020 1993 2003 2010 2020 0,61 0,40 0,32 0,14 1,05 0,45 0,38 0,16 0,68 0,47 0,39 0,21 1,10 0,54 0,46 0,25 1,28 0,89 0,85 0,57 1,81 1,04 0,98 0,61 17,41 19,49 19,44 19,73 21,42 21,25 19,98 18,69 7,55 11,48 14,22 18,13 7,68 11,71 14,53 18,56 4,00 4,67 5,20 5,96 4,08 4,79 5,29 5,99 5,09 6,12 6,72 7,58 5,81 6,35 6,73 7,26 2,10 2,27 2,32 2,40 2,16 2,26 2,33 2,43 0,85 0,87 0,86 0,85 0,93 0,93 0,94 0,95 1,25 1,20 1,24 1,31 1,15 1,22 1,27 1,34 0,83 0,80 0,82 0,85 0,74 0,95 1,10 1,31 0,48 0,51 0,55 0,61 0,44 0,48 0,50 0,54 0,53 0,52 0,47 0,41 0,57 0,58 0,59 0,60 1,57 1,31 1,14 0,90 1,30 1,18 1,09 0,97 0,78 0,66 0,59 0,48 0,72 0,64 0,58 0,50 0,67 0,54 0,43 0,27 0,63 0,50 0,41 0,28 2,16 1,86 1,75 1,59 1,96 1,91 1,87 1,82 0,65 0,52 0,43 0,31 0,60 0,47 0,38 0,26 1,16 1,05 1,02 0,98 1,09 1,09 1,09 1,09 3,55 3,49 3,38 3,22 3,52 3,49 3,47 3,44 2,30 2,21 2,00 1,69 2,36 2,10 1,92 1,67 1,75 1,54 1,50 1,43 1,49 1,43 1,39 1,34 1,59 1,26 0,99 0,59 1,56 1,33 1,17 0,94 1,74 1,28 1,03 0,67 1,57 1,23 1,00 0,67 5,92 4,32 3,42 2,14 5,28 4,08 3,23 2,03 1,41 1,10 0,85 0,49 1,38 1,04 0,80 0,46 1,34 1,24 1,16 1,05 1,20 0,98 0,82 0,60 0,70 0,71 0,76 0,84 0,58 0,61 0,63 0,65 2,06 1,82 1,80 1,78 1,79 1,68 1,60 1,49 1,80 1,60 1,57 1,53 1,53 1,50 1,47 1,43 0,57 0,49 0,39 0,24 0,53 0,44 0,38 0,29 0,61 0,52 0,46 0,38 0,47 0,46 0,46 0,45 1,69 1,57 1,52 1,46 1,39 1,36 1,34 1,31 6,28 6,07 6,39 6,84 5,06 5,32 5,51 5,77 0,22 0,23 0,19 0,13 0,28 0,26 0,24 0,21 8,97 7,91 7,32 6,47 7,96 7,90 7,86 7,80 3,09 2,62 2,40 2,08 2,51 2,42 2,35 2,26 3,13 2,90 2,68 2,36 2,90 2,65 2,48 2,23 1,59 1,49 1,41 1,30 1,38 1,36 1,35 1,33 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 221 Annex Note 1.2: Methodology of Calculation of the Composite Context Indexes The World Bank (Africa Region/Education Unit) annually gathers data from different sources (World Bank, IMF, UIS, UNAIDS, OECD, etc.) in order to compute and update a comparative context index for all Sub-Saharan African education systems. This context index allows the comparison of countries’ education outcomes taking into account differences in country contexts. The context index is made up of two sub-indices: the economic context sub-index and the socio-demographic context sub-index, each computed on the basis of various indicators. The economic context sub-index includes the following indicators: • Current revenue excluding grants, as a percentage of GDP (IMF and OECD data); • Official development assistance in education, as percentage of GDP (including 20% of the global budget support, should it exist (OECD and World Development Indicators data); • Percentage of enrollment in private schools (UNESCO Institute of Statistics data); • GDP per capita (World Bank and OECD data); and • GDP growth for the last three years (World Bank and OECD data). CHAPTER 2 ANNEXES The socio-demographic context sub-index includes the following indicators: • Demographic pseudo dependency ratio, expressed as the number of children aged 5- 16 years, as percentage of total population (UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs data); • Adult (15 years and above) literacy rate (UNESCO Institute of Statistics data); • HIV/AIDS prevalence rate, for adults aged 15-49 years (UNAIDS data); • Under five mortality rate, per 1,000 live births (World Health Organisation and UNICEF data); • Malnutrition (height for age) prevalence, as percentage of children under five (World Health Organisation data); and • Urban population, as percentage of total (UN World Urbanization Prospects data). The eleven indicators are standardized [mean = 50; standard deviation = 10]. The result of this calculation for a given country is its relative score, compared with other African countries. Then, the weighted average (indicators that have greater relevance to the factor analysis are more highly weighted) of those indicators is computed to make up sub-indices and the context index. Finally, the sub-indices and the context index are standardized [mean = 50 and standard deviation = 10] to avoid negative figures and make them more reliable. 222 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) CHAPTER 2 ANNEXES Annex Table 2.1: Cross-Country Comparison of Schooling Coverage, by Level, 2009 or LAY Percent LBE UBE SSE HE* GIR GER PCR GIR GER UBCR GER Benin 136.3 109.1 65.0 57.9 58.5 44.3 22.0 949 Burkina Faso 78.0 72.4 41.7 24.8 25.9 15.4 8.0 312 Cape Verde 103.9 113.5 96.8 96.1 114.0 81.1 74.8 1,763 CAR 92.7 85.1 36.7 21.4 17.2 9.1 7.7 238 Chad 99.1 75.5 30.9 25.9 23.6 12.0 11.5 174 Côte d’Ivoire 80.1 80.7 51.5 33.3 35.6 35.0 18.1 798 Eritrea 40.5 52.4 46.9 43.8 43.9 32.2 20.1 196 Ethiopia 153.2 86.6 46.7 35.2 33.9 29.2 5.7 327 Gambia, The 93.8 88.2 74.8 67.6 66.2 58.6 34.0 447 Ghana 114.7 101.8 82.2 79.5 74.3 63.7 28.4 597 Guinea 92.0 89.9 54.7 23.6 42.9 30.7 23.4 813 Liberia 112.0 104.0 62.0 43.0 42.0 35.0 25.0 408 Madagascar 173.2 143.4 68.6 45.5 39.5 24.9 12.0 307 Malawi 143.5 124.6 42.0 18.6 20.1 20.8 15.3 45 Mali 77.7 82.0 55.7 47.9 49.6 36.5 17.0 557 Mauritania 105.9 103.4 72.6 23.2 22.9 17.9 24.1 524 Mozambique 166.1 118.1 61.0 30.1 27.5 18.0 7.6 143 Niger 93.4 66.0 44.2 26.5 18.0 9.9 2.6 112 Rwanda 213.0 151.0 54.0 29.0 28.0 22.0 9.0 474 Senegal 99.2 83.5 56.3 39.8 37.9 26.0 15.4 747 Sierra Leone 191.7 157.7 87.7 59.0 49.3 32.9 15.4 301 SSA Average ** 96.0 100.0 64.0 43.0 47.0 36.0 22.0 525 Togo 104.9 115.2 61.4 51.9 57.9 35.4 21.2 638 Uganda 163.6 115.8 57.7 36.0 31.6 23.7 14.1 339 Tanzania 108.4 112.4 108.3 54.6 38.6 23.7 3.9 291 Source: UNESCO-Pôle de Dakar. Note: * The higher education enrollment rate is measured by the number of students per 100,000 inhabitants. ** Weighted average. The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 223 CHAPTER 3 ANNEXES Annex Figure 3.1: Household Expenditure on Education, 2009 or LAY % of GDP 8% 7% 6% 5% % of GDP 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Chad Niger Congo Senegal Mauritania Djibouti Burkina Faso Malawi Madagascar Guinea-Bissau Benin Mali Tanzania Togo Average Gambia, The Côte d’Ivoire Cameroon Uganda Sierra Leone Source: The Gambia PSIA, 2009 and Ndem, 2008. CHAPTER 3 ANNEXES Annex Figure 3.2: Lower Basic Private Unit Costs, 2009 or LAY % of GDP per Capita G G 10.0% % of GDP per Capita 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Malawi Chad Congo Niger Senegal Mali Mauritania Benin Tanzania Côte d’Ivoire Average Madagascar Uganda Cameroon Burkina Faso Djibouti Gambia, The Guinea-Bissau Togo Sierra Leone Source: The Gambia PSIA, 2009 and Ndem, 2008. 224 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) Annex Figure 3.3: Higher Education Private Unit Costs, 2009 or LAY % of GDP per Capita 300% 250% % of GDP per Capita 200% 150% 100% 50% 0% Mali Congo Chad Togo Djibouti Cameroun Benin Mauritania Tanzania Côte d’Ivoire Senegal Gambia, The Madagascar Burkina Faso Average Niger Guinea-Bissau Sierra Leone Uganda Source: The Gambia PSIA, 2009 and Ndem, 2008. Annex Table 3.1: Cross-Country Comparison of the Distribution of Household Education Spending, by Type, 2009 or LAY Percent School Fees and Textbooks/Other Other Education Country Tuition Materials Expenses* Benin 48.4 37.2 14.4 Burkina Faso 63.7 29.4 6.9 Cameroon 45.7 37.4 16.9 Côte d'Ivoire 36.3 40.1 23.6 Gambia, The 53.2 10.6 36.2 Madagascar 33.6 30.9 35.5 Malawi 59.0 18.2 22.8 Mauritania 37.8 37.2 25.0 Niger 48.9 38.2 12.9 Uganda 73.0 13.3 13.7 Sierra Leone 20.9 48.5 30.6 Tanzania 62.4 26.4 11.2 Togo 53.4 37.8 8.8 Average 48.9 31.2 19.9 Source: The Gambia PSIA, 2009 and Ndem, 2008. Note: * Transport; exam fees, uniforms, contributions to parent-teachers associations, etc. The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 225 Annex Table 3.2: Breakdown of Total Public Recurrent Expenditure, by Nature of Spending, 2009 Millions of Dalasis Country 2001 2007 2008 2009 MoBSE/EMIS School Level 82.3 255.6 321.7 361.0 Personnel Salaries 62.8 197.7 243.5 280.5 Subsidies to Grant-Aided Schools 16.0 49.8 67.7 67.7 Subsidies to Madrassas 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 Student Scholarships 2.0 7.7 9.6 10.8 Other Recurrent Expenditure 1.4 0.3 0.7 1.6 Management 22.8 22.5 34.1 48.1 Personnel Emoluments 7.8 7.3 7.6 9.4 Other Recurrent Expenditure 15.0 15.1 26.5 38.6 Subtotal 105.1 278.1 355.8 409.1 MoHERST Institutions 34.7 58.0 66.6 58.2 Gambia College 7.3 13.2 12.7 14.0 Personnel Salaries 6.6 5.6 6.4 6.4 Student Stipends - 6.2 5.7 5.1 Other Recurrent Expenditure 0.7 1.5 0.6 2.5 Skills Centers 0.7 11.2 14.5 11.3 Personnel Salaries 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Student Stipends - - - - CHAPTER 3 ANNEXES Other Recurrent Expenditure 0.5 11.1 14.2 11.1 Tertiary and Higher Education 26.7 33.5 39.4 32.8 Personnel Salaries 8.2 13.5 14.8 15.8 Student Scholarships 11.3 7.3 15.7 7.8 University of the Gambia 9.3 6.0 6.5 6.0 Outside the Gambia 2.0 1.3 9.3 1.8 Research 0 0.0 0.4 0.1 Other Recurrent Expenditure 7.3 12.8 8.5 9.1 Management 2.9 5.1 4.4 12.5 Personnel Salaries 1.0 0.6 1.0 1.2 Other Recurrent Expenditure 1.8 4.5 3.4 11.2 Subtotal 37.5 63.1 71.0 70.6 Total Recurrent 142.6 341.2 426.8 479.7 Source: Authors’ calculations based on IFMIS data. 226 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) Annex Tabe 3.3: Breakdown of MoBSE Public Recurrent Expenditure, by Level and Nature of Spending (government schools), 2009 Millions of Dalasis School Level Management Non Other Total Teachers’ Student Staff Other Teachers’ Recurrent Salaries Scholarships Salaries Recurrent Salaries Expenditure Lower Basic 160.7 31.9 0.3 0.6 6.4 25.3 225.2 Upper Basic 68.0 11.0 7.4 0.1 2.3 8.4 97.7 Senior Secondary 6.9 0.8 3.2 0.4 0.8 0.5 12.6 Source: Authors’ calculations based on IFMIS data. Note: Subsidies to the national library and UNESCO national commission are not included. The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 227 CHAPTER 4 ANNEXES Annex Figure 4.1: Share of Candidates who Scored 42 and Below in their GABECE, by Region, 2008/09 Percent 30% 26% 25% 22% 22% 22% 20% 18% Percent 14% 15% 15% 10% 5% 0% Region 1 Region 2 Region 3 Region 4 Region 5 Region 6 Total Source: WAEC and authors’ calculations. Note: Usually the cut-off mark is set at an aggregate score of 42, out of a maximum of 54: for each of the six subjects, scores of one to six are a credit, seven or eight are a pass, and nine is a fail. Actual aggregate scores vary from 6 (the best score in all subjects) to 54 (six fails). Annex Figure 4.2: Share of Candidates who Failed to Get a Single Credit in all Four GABECE Core CHAPTER 4 ANNEXES Subjects, by Gender, 2002/03-2008/09 Percent 95 90 85 Percent 80 75 70 Female 65 Male 60 2002/03 2004/05 2006/07 2008/09 Source: WAEC and authors’ calculations. Note: A credit includes all scores from A1 to C6. In WAEC terminology, scores vary from one to nine: A1 is ‘Excellent’, B2 is ‘Very Good’, B3 is ‘Good’, C4 to C6 are a ‘Credit’, D7 and E8 are ‘Passes’ and F9 is a ‘Fail’. 228 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) Annex Figure 4.3: GABECE Pass/Failure Rates in the Four Core Subjects, by Region, 2008/09 Percent 100% 80% Credits in All 4 Subjects Percent 60% Credits in 3 Subjects Credits in 2 Subjects 40% Credits in 1 Subjects No Credit in Any Subject 20% 0% Region 1 Region 2 Region 3 Region 4 Region 5 Region 6 Source: WAEC and authors’ calculations. Note: A credit includes all scores from A1 to C6. In WAEC terminology, scores vary from one to nine: A1 is ‘Excellent’, B2 is ‘Very Good’, B3 is ‘Good’, C4 to C6 are a ‘Credit’, D7 and E8 are ‘Passes’ and F9 is a ‘Fail’. Annex Table 4.1: Grade 3 Students’ EGRA Scores and their Increase, by Item and Gender, 2007 and 2009 EGRA Scores, Mean/Percentage, Increase (Units of Standard Deviation), Parity Index Gender Parity 2007 2009 Increase Index (Male = 1) Male Female Male Female Male Female 2007 2009 Phoneme Counting 34.7 30.0 45.8 41.6 0.41 0.42 0.86 0.91 (% of phonemes correctly identified) Phoneme Identification 36.0 33.7 42.1 40.3 0.21 0.22 0.93 0.96 (% of phonemes correctly pronounced) Letters 38.8 34.0 46.5 45.3 0.31 0.45 0.88 0.97 (Number of correct letters / minute) Pseudowords 2.6 1.8 6.1 3.6 0.32 0.24 0.68 0.59 (Number of correct non-words / minute) Words 4.8 3.9 10.3 7.5 0.35 0.29 0.80 0.73 (Number of correct words / minute) Words in Context 10.0 8.7 17.2 15.8 0.31 0.29 0.87 0.92 (Number of correct words / minute) Written Comprehension 35.7 26.2 53.8 45.9 0.52 0.54 0.73 0.85 (% of correct answers) Spoken Comprehension 66.8 51.4 74.8 64.8 0.26 0.39 0.77 0.87 (% of correct answers) Spelling (% of correct answers) 14.7 9.9 39.0 30.0 0.42 0.33 0.67 0.77 Source: EGRA 2007 and 2009, authors’ computations. The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 229 Annex Table 4.2: Grade 3 Students’ EGRA Scores, by Item and Region, 2009 EGRA Scores, Mean/Percentage Region 1 Region 2 Region 3 Region 4 Region 5 Region 6 Total Phoneme Counting (% of 44.7 45.6 52.0 39.2 42.9 35.7 43.4 phonemes correctly identified) Phoneme Identification (% of phonemes correctly 48.8 42.7 41.9 30.8 39.1 40.9 41.0 pronounced) Letters (Number of correct 61.9 44.6 37.3 44.5 45.5 42.3 45.8 letters / minute) Pseudowords (Number of 12.6 4.8 4.1 2.6 2.5 2.1 4.7 correct words / minute) Words (Number of correct 21.7 9.5 7.5 5.1 4.0 5.1 8.7 words / minute) Words in Context (Number of 38.5 19.1 13.7 10.9 7.8 9.1 16.4 correct words / minute) Written Comprehension (% of 74.3 52.7 53.3 36.5 43.1 35.7 49.3 correct answers) Spoken Comprehension (% of 81.7 76.7 63.9 62.1 62.9 64.3 69.1 correct answers) Spelling (% of correct answers) 75.0 45.0 28.8 20.1 16.1 16.4 33.9 Source: EGRA 2007 and 2009, authors’ computations. Annex Table 4.3: Regional Ranking According to Grade 3 Students’ EGRA Scores, 2009 EGRA Scores, Mean/Percentage Region 1 Region 2 Region 3 Region 4 Region 5 Region 6 CHAPTER 4 ANNEXES Phoneme Counting (% of 3 2 1 5 4 6 phonemes correctly identified) Phoneme Identification (% of phonemes correctly 1 2 3 6 5 4 pronounced) Letters (Number of correct 1 2 6 4 3 5 letters / minute) Pseudowords (Number of 1 2 3 4 5 6 correct words / minute) Words (Number of correct 1 2 3 4 6 4 words / minute) Words in Context (Number of 1 2 3 4 6 5 correct words / minute) Written Comprehension (% of 1 3 2 5 4 6 correct answers) Spoken Comprehension (% of 1 2 4 6 5 3 correct answers) Spelling (% of correct answers) 1 2 3 4 6 5 Source: EGRA 2007 and 2009, authors’ computations. 230 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) Annex Table 4.4: Increase in Grade 3 Students’ EGRA Scores, by Item and Region, 2007 and 2009 Units of Standard Deviation Region 1 Region 2 Region 3 Region 4 Region 5 Region 6 Phoneme Counting (% of 0.11 0.45 0.51 0.85 0.50 0.12 phonemes correctly identified) Phoneme Identification (% of phonemes correctly 0.08 0.32 -0.64 0.53 0.45 0.35 pronounced) Letters (Number of correct 0.27 0.34 0.32 0.84 0.42 0.22 letters / minute) Pseudowords (Number of 0.23 0.29 0.30 0.42 -0.07 0.45 correct words / minute) Words (Number of correct 0.20 0.43 0.35 0.40 0.40 0.32 words / minute) Words in Context (Number of 0.14 0.31 0.48 0.52 0.40 0.33 correct words / minute) Written Comprehension (% of 0.34 0.44 1.01 0.54 0.73 0.17 correct answers) Spoken Comprehension (% of 0.04 0.09 0.52 0.47 0.54 0.20 correct answers) Spelling (% of correct answers) 0.56 0.40 0.35 0.24 0.33 0.30 Source: EGRA 2007 and 2009, authors' computations. Note: To explain the extreme changes in EGRA scores in Region 3 for phoneme identification (-0.64) and for written comprehension (+1.01) would require further research. Although there may be some correlation between the two variables, other aspects might also influence written comprehension. Annex Table 4.5: Grade 3 Students’ EGRA Scores, by Item and Socioeconomic Status, 2007 and 2009 EGRA Scores, Mean/Percentage 2007 2009 SES 1 SES 2 SES 3 SES 4 SES 1 SES 2 SES 3 SES 4 Phoneme Counting 26.5 29.2 34.8 40.0 41.4 43.3 41.3 46.7 Phoneme Identification 27.1 30.3 39.0 45.2 44.9 39.0 34.5 49.7 Letters 35.2 35.0 35.1 40.5 45.8 42.1 42.8 54.2 Pseudowords 1.9 0.9 1.4 5.3 3.7 3.3 2.3 9.7 Words 3.1 2.0 3.2 10.1 6.5 5.7 4.9 17.9 Words in Context 6.9 4.6 8.0 20.1 13.1 11.3 10.4 31.4 Written Comprehension 26.3 26.9 25.7 46.2 43.8 41.5 43.6 68.3 Spoken Comprehension 51.9 56.9 59.1 68.3 69.0 65.7 62.8 80.8 Spelling 10.3 6.1 13.0 21.7 23.8 25.9 19.1 65.4 Source: EGRA 2007 and 2009, authors' computations. Note: Socioeconomic status (SES) is derived from the computation of a wealth index, based on the consumption items owned by the student household. Four categories have been defined: SES 1 referring to the poorest group, and SES 4 to the wealthiest one. The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 231 Annex Table 4.6: Increase in Grade 3 Students’ EGRA Scores, by Item and Socioeconomic Status, 2007 and 2009 Units of Standard Deviation and Parity Index 2007 Parity Index (SES 1= 1) SES 1 SES 2 SES 3 SES 4 2007 2009 Phoneme Counting 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.2 1.51 1.13 Phoneme Identification 0.6 0.3 -0.2 0.2 1.66 1.11 Letters 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.5 1.15 1.18 Pseudowords 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.3 2.79 2.59 Words 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.4 3.30 2.74 Words in Context 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.3 2.91 2.39 Written Comprehension 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6 1.76 1.56 Spoken Comprehension 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.5 1.31 1.17 Spelling 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.7 2.12 2.75 Source: EGRA 2007 and 2009, authors' computations. Note: SES is socioeconomic status. Annex Table 4.7: Determinants of Grade 3 Students’ EGRA Aggregate Score, 2009/10 R2 34.7% Number of observations 400 Marginal Effect Mean:% and Significance Urban (Ref. Rural) 20% +2.46 Double shift (Ref. No Shift) 50% + 5.44 *** Pupil to Teacher Ratio > 40 (Ref. PTR ≤ 40) 31% -3.67 * EGRA Initial Aggregated Score (School Level, 2007) 48.7 + 0.59 *** CHAPTER 4 ANNEXES Female (Ref. Male) 57% -3.14 *** Age (Years) 10.2 + 0.62 Student Already Repeated 19% -4.44 *** Student Attended Preschool (Public Only) 47% + 3.74 ** Student Attended Madrassa 22% + 5.75 ** Student Household Wealth Index 8.4 + 0.34 Student Has Books at Home 68% + 0.36 Student Studies at Home 60% + 1.92 Student Has Eaten before Going to School 77% + 2.10 Student was Absent 29% -4.63 *** Teacher Practices Phonemes in Class 72% + 1.27 Student is Encouraged to Improve when Underperforming 23% + 2.78 Student is Punished when Underperforming 28% -2.91 Student is Encouraged when Achieving 64% + 3.69 * Student Pratices Reading in Class 75.6% + 6.92*** Source: EGRA 2007 and 2009, authors' computations. Note: *** Statistically significant at the 1% level; ** statistically significant at the 5% level; * statistically significant at the 10% level. Aggregate scores are based on the different EGRA items, and adjusted to obtain an average value of 50 and a standard deviation of 15. 232 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) Annex Table 4.8: Grade 3 NAT Results by Subject, Performance and Gender, 2008-10 Percent Mastery Level Minimum Level Male Female Total Male Female Total 2010 English 2.67 3.61 3.16 19.25 19.67 19.47 Mathematics 4.67 4.63 4.65 26.13 26.75 26.45 Integrated Science 6.76 6.32 6.53 26.80 26.28 26.53 2009 English 1.81 2.26 2.05 14.13 14.46 14.31 Mathematics 2.59 2.76 2.68 24.12 22.48 23.26 Integrated Science 1.45 1.50 1.48 18.61 12.82 16.82 2008 English 2.83 3.34 3.09 19.69 20.63 20.17 Mathematics 0.78 0.75 0.77 18.06 17.96 18.01 Integrated Studies 2.32 2.14 2.22 14.84 14.64 14.74 Source: NAT 2008, 2009, 2010. Annex Table 4.9: Grade 5 NAT Results by Subject, Performance and Gender, 2008-10 Percent Mastery Level Minimum Level Male Female Total Male Female Total 2010 English 3.64 4.23 3.94 29.13 29.07 29.10 Mathematics 2.44 2.15 2.29 20.14 19.01 19.56 Social Studies 10.78 9.56 10.15 47.71 43.82 45.70 Sciences 2.62 2.28 2.45 23.07 21.45 22.24 2009 English 2.34 2.58 2.47 23.60 22.50 23.02 Mathematics 0.98 0.90 0.94 15.56 14.00 14.74 Social Studies 0.29 0.33 0.31 24.02 24.65 24.35 Sciences 0.22 0.14 0.18 25.18 25.28 25.23 2008 English 6.45 5.86 6.14 31.7 27.32 29.4 Mathematics 0.49 0.51 0.5 12.94 10.95 11.9 Social Studies 2.94 1.93 2.41 36.31 30.68 33.35 Sciences 0.91 0.63 0.76 15.64 12.61 14.05 Source: NAT 2008, 2009, 2010. The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 233 Annex Table 4.10: Grade 3 NAT Results, by Subject, Performance, Gender and Ownership, 2010 Percent Mastery Level Minimum Level Male Female Total Male Female Total English Government 1.24 1.53 1.39 17.11 16.00 16.53 Private 8.74 12.14 10.52 33.16 38.85 36.15 Mission 0.46 1.75 1.2 25.35 22.11 23.51 Mathematics Government 3.13 2.70 2.91 24.82 24.07 24.43 Private 11.68 12.99 12.37 39.95 44.87 42.53 Mission 4.61 2.81 3.59 29.49 31.23 30.48 Integrated Studies Government 5.21 3.86 4.51 25.61 23.66 24.59 Private 14.62 17.27 16.01 40.09 44.57 42.44 Mission 5.99 2.46 3.98 34.56 25.61 29.48 Source: NAT, 2010. Annex Table 4.11: Grade 5 NAT Results, by Subject, Performance, Gender and Ownership, 2010 Percent Mastery Level Minimum Level Male Female Total Male Female Total English Government 1.93 1.85 1.89 27.01 24.95 25.95 11.59 15.25 13.28 41.3 41.53 41.41 CHAPTER 4 ANNEXES Private Mission 12.21 14.85 13.62 49.79 55.04 52.59 Mathematics Government 1.34 0.96 1.15 17.92 15.83 16.84 Private 7.94 5.93 7.03 34.78 32.2 33.59 Mission 7.97 7.53 7.73 37.34 37.76 37.57 Social and Environmental Studies Government 9.19 7.1 8.12 48.35 42.24 45.21 Private 18.12 10.17 14.45 57.25 63.56 60.16 Mission 21.78 22.79 22.32 63.98 63.92 63.95 Science Government 1.93 1.56 1.74 22.35 19.1 20.68 Private 6.52 3.39 5.08 39.86 45.76 42.58 Mission 6.55 5.96 6.24 34.75 37.06 35.98 Source: NAT, 2010. 234 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) Annex Table 4.12: Effect of School Variables on the Percentage of Grade 5 NAT Students Reaching the Minimum Requirement in English, 2008/09 R2 28.3% Number of observations 321 Predicted Value of the Percentage of 16.9% Candidates who Passed English School Variables Mean/Values:% Net Impact on Success Rate Government School (Ref Grant-Aided & Private) 85.7% -0.073 *** Double-Shifting 29.4% -0.060 *** Pupil to Teacher Ratio 34:1 -0.001 * Percentage of Qualified Teachers in School 72.2% 0.047 Percentage of Repeaters in School 7.8% -0.355 ** Seat per Pupil 0.8 -0.011 School Has a Library 57.9% 0.022 School Has Electricity 31.6% 0.054 *** School Has Water 98.1% -0.043 Number of Latrines 0.04 0.074 English Books per Student 0.6 0.090 *** Source: Authors’ calculations based on Grade 5 NAT 2009 results and MoBSE/EMIS, 2008/09. Note: *** Statistically significant at the 1% level; ** significant at the 5% level; * significant at the 10% level. Annex Table 4.13: GABECE Credits Obtained in the Four Core Subjects, by Region, 2008/09 Percent Region 1 Region 2 Region 2 Region 3 Region 4 Region 5 Region 6 Banjul KMC English 17.4 24.3 9.1 5.4 4.7 4.0 4.6 Mathematics 7.7 10.1 5.6 7.6 6.5 4.4 6.7 Science 11.1 15.9 11.3 9.4 7.7 8.5 9.2 SES 12.0 18.7 17.9 17.4 9.9 8.3 10.5 Source: WAEC, 2009. Note: A credit includes all scores from A1 to C6. In WAEC terminology, scores vary from one to nine: A1 is ‘Excellent’, B2 is ‘Very Good’, B3 is ‘Good’, C4 to C6 are a ‘Credit’, D7 and E8 are ‘Passes’ and F9 is a ‘Fail’. KMC is Kanifing Municipal Council. SES is Social and Environmental Studies. The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 235 Annex Table 4.14: Determinants of English GABECE Success Rates, 2008/09 R2 27.1% Number of observations 105 Predicted Value of the Percentage of 8.6% Candidates who Passed English School Variables Mean/Values:% Net Impact on Success Rate PTR 16:1 -0.002 ** Double-Shifting 47.4% -0.068 *** Percentage of Qualified Teachers 82.2% 0.072 Percentage of Repeaters 4.4% -0.482 * School Has a Library 68.6% -0.011 School Has a Lab 36.2% 0.062 ** School Has Electricity 68.6% 0.070 *** School Has Water 96.2% 0.0437 Number of Latrines 0.05 0.034 English Books per Student 0.7 0.095 *** Source: Authors’ calculations based on GABECE 2009 results and MoBSE/EMIS, 2006/07-2008/09. Note: *** Statistically significant at the 1% level; ** statistically significant at the 5% level; * statistically significant at the 10% level. Scores from A1 to C6 are considered in the success rate. In WAEC terminology, scores vary from one to nine: A1 is ‘Excellent’, B2 is ‘Very Good’, B3 is ‘Good’, C4 to C6 are a ‘Credit’, D7 and E8 are ‘Passes’ and F9 is a ‘Fail’. Annex Table 4.15: Distribution of Students, by Number of WASSCE Credits, by Region, 2008/09 Percent Credits in Credits in Credits in Credit in No credit in Total 6 to 9 Subjects 5 Subjects 4 Subjects 1 to 3 Subjects any Subject Region 1 9.3 4.8 5.7 35.7 44.5 100.0 CHAPTER 4 ANNEXES Region 2 4.6 3.8 5.9 30.0 55.8 100.0 Region 3 3.9 0.8 2.3 29.2 63.9 100.0 Region 4 2.6 7.8 5.2 32.5 51.9 100.0 Region 5 3.1 2.2 3.4 28.9 62.3 100.0 Region 6 2.2 1.1 3.3 24.2 69.2 100.0 Source: WAEC, 2009. Note: A credit includes scores from A1 to C6. In WAEC terminology, scores vary from one to nine: A1 is ‘Excellent’, B2 is ‘Very Good’, B3 is ‘Good’, C4 to C6 are a ‘Credit’, D7 and E8 are ‘Passes’ and F9 is a ‘Fail’. 236 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) Annex Note 4.1: The Negative Impact of Too High a Level of Repetition (A Summary of Evidence) Source: Pôle de Dakar, UNESCO BREDA, 2005. The debate on repetition is not new. Supporters of repetition point out the sequential nature of learning, the need for classes to be homogenous, a failing student’s loss of interest in the class, and the motivating effect of sanctions as factors that make it effective. Opponents sustain that a student’s disinterest in repeating a class is the first step toward dropout and decry the subjective ways decisions to repeat are taken, along with the cost of an extra school year. Knowledge based on solid empirical studies has progressed, particularly in the context of African countries, and the main results show the negative effects of too high a level of repetition, which can be summed up as follows: 1. The decision to oblige a student to repeat a year is not always fair. A student's knowledge and skills are not the only explanation for repetition. Decisions often depend on subjective factors, such as the student's relative position in the class, the environment, schooling conditions, and the teacher's qualifications (PASEC, 1999). In Côte d'Ivoire for example, more than 30 percent of repeaters are not in the lower third of students at the national level, as measured by the standard PASEC assessment test; 2. The impact of repetition on learning achievements is not empirically proven. Macroanalyses show that the argument aimed at justifying students' repetition for reasons linked to the quality of education cannot be empirically verified (Mingat and Sosale, 2000). Good education systems (those achieving a high level of student learning) can have high or low repetition; there is no significant relationship between students' learning achievements and the frequency of repetition. The same is shown in school level studies (for instance in Benin, Chad, and Cameroon) which conclude that with equal resources and environment, schools where students have repeated the most grades do not have better results at the end of the cycle (Brossard, 2003; World Bank, 2004, 2005). Finally, analyses at the individual level show that students (except the especially weak) who are made to repeat a year do not improve more by repeating than by moving on to the next grade (PASEC, 1999; PASEC, 2004b); 3. There is a significant negative effect on dropout. Studies at the country, school, and individual levels reinforce this point. At the macro level, studies show that repetition increases dropout rates during the cycle, and this remains the main obstacle to reaching universal primary enrollment (Mingat and Sosale, 2000, Pôle de Dakar, 2002). The families of students who repeat a year feel that their children are unsuccessful and do not benefit from being at school. As opportunity costs are always an argument against school attendance, repetition encourages parents to take their children out of school. Mingat and Sosale estimate that one more percentage point of The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 237 repeaters results in a 0.8 percentage point increase in the dropout rate. They also show that these negative effects are even more distinct among population groups whose demand for schooling is already low (girls, children from underprivileged economic environments). For girls, the effect of one more percentage point is estimated to be a 1.1 point increase in the dropout rate; 4. The results of school level analyses point to similar results. In Chad, with all other factors being equal, one more percentage point of repetition is related to a 0.53 percent lower survival rate (World Bank, 2005). At the individual level, studies also confirm this trend. In Senegal, at a given student level, the decision to make a Grade 2 student repeat a year increases the risk of the student dropping out at the end of the year by 11 percent (PASEC, 2004); and 5. Costs are affected. Repetition costs the system two years of study while only one year is validated. In other words, for a given budget constraint, repeating students occupy places that overload classes and may prevent other children from going to school. The link between the repetition and the PTR is empirically demonstrated (Mingat and Sosale, 2000; Pôle de Dakar, 2002). 6. Bruns, Mingat and Rakotomalala (2003) observed that among the highest performing African countries in terms of universal primary education over the 1990–2000 period, the average share of repeaters was 10 percent, which is lower than the current African average (16 percent). This benchmark of 10 percent has been established as a reference value within the FTI indicative framework. The practices (because repetition really is about practices and habits rather than an objective system of remedial action designed to improve student learning) vary greatly. The repetition rate ranges from under three CHAPTER 4 ANNEXES to 40 percent. Thirty one of the 43 countries for which data was available had over 10 percent repetition. In all, the analysis does not recommend the generalized automatic promotion to the next grade (which poses other problems), but leads to the conclusion that a figure of 10 percent repetition is both desirable and possible. By way of a conclusion, efficient in-cycle flow management requires: (i) An improvement in the survival rate during the cycle. It is necessary to eliminate dropout in the primary cycle to attain universal primary education. In the other cycles, in view of the fact that the learning programs are put together according to homogenous units per education cycle, dropout during a cycle represents a waste of resources; the system invests in years of study that do not yield the expected results (the completion of the cycle); and (ii) The reduction of repetition in countries where it is high. Although the perspective of teachers who make students repeat a year when they have not acquired all the 238 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) required knowledge is understandable, education systems can not realistically accept a repetition rate over 10 percent. This represents an additional cost for which the pedagogical efficiency is not proven, and seriously reduces the chances of achieving full universal primary education. The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 239 CHAPTER 5 ANNEXES Annex Figure 5.1: Simulated Probability of Women Using Tetanus Toxoid During Pregnancy Percent 96% 94% 92% 90% Total 88% Urban 86% Rural 84% 0 2 4 6 7 9 10 12 14 16 Highest Grade Attained Source: Authors’ calculations based on MICS 2006 data. Annex Figure 5.2: Simulated Age at First Childbirth of Women Aged 20-29 Years Years CHAPTER 5 ANNEXES 21.0 20.5 20.0 19.5 19.0 Age 18.5 Total 18.0 Urban 17.5 Rural 17.0 16.5 0 2 4 6 7 9 10 12 14 16 Highest Grade Attained Source: Authors’ calculations based on MICS 2006 data. 240 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) Annex Figure 5.3: Simulated Age at First Childbirth of Women Aged 40-49 Years Percent 21.5 21.0 20.5 Age 20.0 Total 19.5 Urban Rural 19.0 18.5 0 2 4 6 7 9 10 12 14 16 Highest Grade Attained Source: Authors’ calculations based on MICS 2006 data. Annex Figure 5.4: Simulated Age at First Childbirth of Women Aged 15-49 Years Years 21.5 21.0 20.5 20.0 19.5 Age 19.0 18.5 Total 18.0 Urban 17.5 Rural 17.0 16.5 0 2 4 6 7 9 10 12 14 16 Highest Grade Attained Source: Authors’ calculations based on MICS 2006 data. The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 241 Annex Figure 5.5: Simulated Probability of Births Being Attended by Skilled Health Personnel Percent 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% Total 30% Urban 20% Rural 10% 0% 0 2 4 6 7 9 10 12 14 16 Highest Grade Attained Source: Authors’ calculations based on MICS 2006 data. Annex Figure 5.6: Simulated Average Birth Interval Months 50 45 40 35 CHAPTER 5 ANNEXES Months 30 25 20 Total 15 Urban 10 Rural 5 0 0 2 4 6 7 9 10 12 14 16 Highest Grade Attained Source: Authors’ calculations based on MICS 2006 data. 242 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) Annex Figure 5.7: Simulated Number of Live Births at the Time of the Survey, for Women Aged 15-49 Yearsl Number of Live Births 3.5 3.0 Number of Live Births 2.5 2.0 1.5 Total 1.0 Urban 0.5 Rural 0 0 2 4 6 7 9 10 12 14 16 Highest Grade Attained Source: Authors’ calculations based on MICS 2006 data. Annex Figure 5.8: Simulated Knowledge of HIV/AIDS Scores (0-12) 11.5 11.0 10.5 10.0 Total 9.5 Urban 9.0 Rural 8.5 0 2 4 6 7 9 10 12 14 16 Highest Grade Attained Source: Authors’ calculations based on MICS 2006 data. The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 243 Annex Figure 5.9: Simulated Probability of at Least One Child Dying Percent 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% Total 15% Urban 10% Rural 5% 0% 0 2 4 6 7 9 10 12 14 16 Highest Grade Attained Source: Authors’ calculations based on MICS 2006 data. Annex Figure 5.10: Simulated Probability of Women Being Literate Percent 120% 100% 80% CHAPTER 5 ANNEXES 60% Total 40% Urban 20% Rural 0% 0 2 4 6 7 9 10 12 14 16 Highest Grade Attained Source: Authors’ calculations based on MICS 2006 data. 244 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) Annex Figure 5.11: Simulated Probability of Being in the Poorest 40 % of the Population Percent 70% 60% Total Urban 50% Rural 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 0 2 4 6 7 9 10 12 14 16 Highest Grade Attained Source: Authors’ calculations based on MICS 2006 data. Annex Figure 5.12: Simulated Percentage of Women who Want their Daughter to Undergo Genital Mutilation Percent 70% 68% 66% 64% 62% 60% 58% 56% 0 2 4 6 7 9 10 12 14 16 Highest Grade Attained Source: Authors’ calculations based on MICS 2006 data. The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 245 Annex Note 5.1: Summary of the Methodology for Assessing the Impact of Education on Human Development using MICS 2006 data. Objective To assess the net impact (all other things being equal) of different levels of schooling on a set of human development variables (fertility/reproduction, poverty, maternal health, child health, HIV/AIDS knowledge, education of children, literacy). Figure 1: The Education, Income and Human Development Triangle Education Income, Living area, Health Services Human Development Methodology 1- Econometric models that explain any human development variable (Dependant variable, Yi) by the number of years of study (X1), controlled by control variables (Xi); 2- Simulating the impact of the number of years of study on each human development variable for an average individual (in terms of the control variables). CHAPTER 5 ANNEXES Control variables Urban/Rural, Age, Gender, Wealth Index (based on the assets owned by households). In addition, for maternal and child health variables, a control variable capturing the supply of health providers near the individual’s residence was used. 246 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) Human Development variables Name in MICS Dataset Type of Variable Control Variables Probability of being among Poorest40 (based on wlthind5 Urban/Rural, Age, Dummy the 40% poorest variable, based on household assets) Gender Women’s age at first childbirth age1stbirth Dummy, discrete Urban/Rural, Age HIV/AIDS knowledge AIDSknow Scale, discrete Urban/Rural, Age Total number of live births nbbirths Scale, discrete Urban/Rural, Age at the time of the survey Time-span between births timespan, avtimespan Scale, discrete Urban/Rural, Age (years) Probability of assistance assist Dummy, discrete Urban/Rural, Age at childbirth (%) Probability of antenatal antenat Dummy, discrete Urban/Rural, Age consultation (%) Use of tetanus toxoid during tettox Dummy, discrete Urban/Rural, Age pregnancy (%) Probability of taking iron tablets mn3aa Dummy, discrete Urban/Rural, Age during pregnancy (%) Probability of at least one deadkids Dummy, discrete Urban/Rural, Age child dying (%) Probability of female literacy noys Dummy, discrete Urban/Rural, Age Note: A full list of the MICS variables is listed in Annex Note 5.2. Annex Note 5.2: Variable Definitions and Assumptions 1: MICS Survey, 2005/2006: Education Impact on Human Development 1. Health supply score (score): The weighted distribution of health facilities at the district level. The weight is computed from the combination of primary level health centres (PHC villages), minor secondary health centres, major secondary health centres, and tertiary health centres (hospitals) at the district level: 2. Years of education (noys): The highest grade attended. This variable was created and included in the dataset. It was coded based on the current education level for those currently in school and the highest education level completed for those no longer in school; 3. Use of Vitamin A after last birth (Survey question: -mn1 or Variable label: -VitA): A measure of the use of vitamin A in the first two months after the last birth. It is a dichotomous variable: ‘yes’ for using vitamin A, and ‘no’ otherwise; The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 247 4. Use of iron tablets during pregnancy (Survey question: -mn3aa or Variable label: - iron): Stands for the use of iron tablets for women who gave birth in the two years preceding the date of interview. It is a dichotomous variable: ‘yes’ for using iron, and ‘no’ otherwise; 5. Use of anti-malarial treatment for children (Survey question: -ml3 or Variable label: -malaria): Use of medicine for fever or malaria by children under five years that was provided or prescribed at a health facility. It is a dichotomous variable: ‘yes’ for taking medicine, and ‘no’ otherwise; 6. Use of mosquito net for children (Survey question: -ml10 or Variable label: - mosquito): It is a dichotomous variable: ‘yes’ if children under five slept under any kind of mosquito net the night preceding the interview date, and ‘no’ otherwise; 7. Use of treated mosquito net for children (Survey question: -ml12 or Variable label: -treatednet): It is coded to a binary variable: ‘1’ for either long lasting nets or nets pretreated with insecticides, and ‘0’ otherwise; 8. Women’s age at first childbirth (Variable label: -age1stbirth3): A continuous variable created on the basis of women’s age at first childbirth; 9. Female literacy (Survey question: -wm14 or Variable label: -literacy): It is coded to ‘1’ if women are able to read a whole sentence and ‘0’ if they can read part of the sentence or not read it at all. Since this question was addressed only to those with primary level education in the survey, the variable was extended by coding to ‘1’the literacy level of women who attended Grades 10 and above; 10. HIV/AIDS knowledge score: (Variable label: -AIDSknow): It is a continuous variable of HIV/AIDS knowledge, based on scores ranging from zero to 12: 12 for best CHAPTER 5 ANNEXES knowledge and zero for no knowledge of the 12 questions asked during the survey; 11. Child height flag (Survey question: -flag or Variable label: -hag): It is coded ‘1’ for children who have any height to age anthropometric flags, and ‘0’ for those with no flag; 12. Child weight flag (Survey question: -flag or Variable label: -wag): It is coded ‘1’ for children who have any weight to age anthropometric flags, and ‘0’ for those with no flag; 13. Child height/weight flag (Survey question: -flag or Variable label: -hwag): It is coded ‘1’ for children who have any combined weight and height anthropometric flag, and ‘0’ for those with no flag; 248 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 14. The poorest 40% (Variable label: -poor): The variable is coded to a binary variable ‘1’ for the poorest 40%, and ‘0’ for the remaining 60%. This variable is based on the wealth quintiles computed for each household based on asset ownership; 15. Genital Mutilation of Daughters (Survey question: -fg9 or Variable label: -circumcised): The survey question asked for the number of daughters circumcised; the variable is coded to ‘1’ if at least one daughter is circumcised, and ‘0’ otherwise; 16. Thinking about the practice of circumcision (Survey question: -fg16 or Variable label: -cont_circu): The survey question asked if women thought the practice of circumcision should be continued or discontinued. The variable is coded to binary variable ‘1’ for those who thought it should be continued, and ‘0’ otherwise; 17. Total number of live births (Survey question: -cm9 or Variable label: -nbbirths). Total number of children already born alive at the time of the survey. This is a continuous variable indicating the total number of live births per woman at the time of the survey; 18. Child mortality (Survey questions: -cm7, -cm8a, -cm8b and -cm9 or Variable label: -childmortality): The survey question (cm7) asked: “Have you ever given birth to a boy or a girl who later died?� The child mortality variable is coded to binary variable ‘1’ if at least one child died, and to ‘0’ otherwise; 19. Average birth interval (Variable label: -avtimespan): A continuous variable indicating the average number of months between successive childbirths for women aged between 15 and 49 years who have given birth to at least two children; 20. Use of tetanus toxoid during pregnancy (Survey question: -tt2 or Variable label: -tettox): The survey question asked if any anti-tetanus injections were received during the last pregnancy. The variable is binary: ‘1’ for yes, and ‘0’ for no; and 21. Assistance at delivery (Survey questions: -mn7a, -mn7b, -mn7c or Variable label: -assist): The variable is coded to ‘1’ if assistance was provided during the childbirth of the last child by a skilled professional (doctor, nurse, midwife or auxiliary midwife), and to ‘0’ if no assistance was given or assistance was given by nonprofessionals. 2. Core Welfare Indicator Questionnaire (CWIQ), 2008 22. Years of education (Variable: -level-edu): The highest education level attended if currently in school or the highest grade attended if not currently in school. For the purpose of homogeneity between people having attended the old education system and those who attended the new one, the following recoding was performed: The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 249 • Primary Grades 1 to 6 → LBE • Junior SS F1 to 4 → UBE • High School F1 to 3 → UBE • High School F4 to Upper 6 → SSE • Secondary Technical F1 to 4 → Lower TVET • Vocational School after Senior Technical Year 1 to 4 → Upper TVET • Vocational School after High School Years 1 to 4 → Upper TVET • Technical School after GCE / O Levels Years 1 to 4 → Upper TVET • Vocational School after GCE / O Levels Years 1 to 4 → Upper TVET • Gambia College Years 1 go 5 → Higher Education • University Years 1 to PhD → Higher Education 23. Working age group: Individuals aged at least 15 years at the time of interview. In developing countries the nature of production does not usually comply with retirement ages according to contemporary labor market definitions hence it was not logical to set an upper age limit; 24. Employment: Individuals who had conducted any form of activity over the last seven days preceding the survey interview period including people engaged in household production; 25. Unemployment: The nonworking population in the working age group who are not currently employed, looking for work, students or sick; 26. Labor force/economically active population: The sum of the above employed and unemployed populations; 27. Inactive/student: All individuals who are in the working age group and are not in the labor force; CHAPTER 5 ANNEXES 28. Formal public sector: Individuals who are paid either in wages/salary/payment in kind or casual (hourly/daily) workers, AND work for the government or parastatal institutions; 29. Formal private sector: Individuals who are paid either in wages/salary/payment in kind or casual (hourly/daily) workers, AND work for private businesses; 30. Informal agriculture: All individuals who worked in the agricultural sector (not including the formal public and formal private employment categories defined above), including: (i) individuals who are self reported as a private person or household, or self coded as informal agriculture, if their activity is in the agricultural sector; (ii) individuals whose employment status is not government, parastatal or private business and who are not paid in wages/salary/payment in kind, or are classified in 250 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) the casual (hourly/daily) category, AND are engaged in the agricultural sector; (iii) people whose employment status is missing but reported doing some kind of job over the last seven days preceding the interview, and who are not paid in wages/salary/payment in kind, or are classified in the casual (hourly/daily) employment category, AND who are engaged in the agricultural sector; and (iv) those whose employment categories are missing and who are engaged in the agricultural sector; 31. Informal nonagriculture: Calculated as the residual of the employed population, or by replicating the steps used for informal agriculture for those engaged in nonagricultural sectors. 3. Poverty and Social Impact Analysis (PSIA), 2009 32. Years of experience: Generated based on the difference between the age of respondents at the time of the survey, and their age when leaving school, following four steps or assumptions: (i) the current age is used as a factor limit of experience assuming age as one of the indicators; (ii) the minimum age for labor force participation is 15 years; (iii) average years of education are calculated based on grades completed/attended; and (iv) individuals whose age and schooling combination gives negative years of experience for each age are coded to zero years of experience (a 15 year-old who has four years of schooling would have -4 years of experience, hence such counts are coded to zero years of experience); 33. Level of education: The highest education level is generated using the highest education level attended or the highest grade/form/year/level completed; 34. Working age group: Individuals who are aged at least 15 years at the time of interview; 35. Employment: All individuals of working age (above 15 years) who have any kind of job or who have earned income from work, or if income data is missing who have any information about the job they currently reported to be doing in the employed category; 36. Unemployment: Individuals out of work but who are looking for a job, or have not earned any income in the given period, or if income data is missing provided no other job related information in the survey. These individuals must not have reported themselves as sick if they had no activity, and must be of working age; 37. Labor force/economically active population: Sum of the employed and unemployed populations above; The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 251 38. Inactive/student: Individuals having no income, who are not sick, looking for a job, or students. Generated by residual calculation (working-age less labor-force (unemployed and employed)); 39. Formal public sector: Salaried employees in the formal public sector; 40. Formal private sector: Salaried employees in the formal private sector; 41. Informal agriculture: Individuals who worked in the agricultural sector (other than formal public and formal private categories as defined above), including: (i) individuals who are either employers, on-account workers or family helpers, if engaged in agricultural sector activity; (ii) individuals who are self reported as other categories of salaried employee and who worked in the agricultural sector; and (iii) those whose employment status is missing and are not under any category of salaried private or public employee, if engaged in agricultural sector activity; and 42. Informal nonagriculture: Residual calculation based on the employed population, or obtained by replicating the steps used for informal agriculture for those engaged in nonagricultural sectors. Data cleaning for earnings: One percent of the lower and upper earning rate outliers are excluded. In the dataset for some household members earnings are recorded as zero, of which 96% are on-account workers and family helpers. In most cases a close examination of the dataset revealed that earnings were reported at the household level under the head of the household’s record. Almost all zero income reports of on-account workers and family helpers are reported in annual income bases (95% and 91%, respectively). When examining the overall distribution of earnings by unit of earnings, 88% of family helpers and 64% on-account workers have annual earnings reported as opposed to only 3% for salaried public and 5% salaried private workers. Therefore, the CHAPTER 5 ANNEXES average income of each household member engaged in on-account and family help work is generated by dividing household income by the total number of working individuals in the household. At the national level, the average household size is 14, and the average number of on-account and family helper workers is seven. To calculate monthly income, all the incomes recorded in years, days and weeks are converted to months assuming 22 working days, 4.2 working weeks and 1/12 years in a month. Thus, monthly income is calculated by dividing earnings by the calculated month. Assumptions: After testing different assumptions the following assumption of earning measure was adopted: the calculated monthly rate is constant during the year instead of only considering the actual time spent at the current job. Hence, the monthly rate is converted into annual income. This generates annual income based on a constant monthly rate assumption during the given year as: annual income = (earnings/month) * 12. 252 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) Annex Note 5.3: Calculation Method of Rates of Return on Education Investments - The Mincerian Earnings Functions In order to calculate the rate of return of education, common procedures consist in using the Mincer model, which estimates an equation based on the following: Where Ln() is the natural logarithm function; is the annual individual income (or annual wages); is the professional experience (in years); = 1 if the individual has certification (or has attended the education level k) and =0 if not; is the job sector of the principal occupation; is a random term and is supposed to be Gaussian; and are parameters that are generated by the model itself. In the case of The Gambia, using PSIA 2009 data, results of such a model are shown in Table 1. All parameters are statistically significant at the usual levels (1 % or 5 %), and the R² is around 27 %. Table 1: Mincerian Earning Function for The Gambia, 2009 Parameters Standard Deviation Constant 7.515 0.026 Education Level No Education (Ref.) - - Lower Basic Education 0.033** 0.044 Upper Basic Education 0.213*** 0.043 Senior Secondary Education 0.436*** 0.053 Technical College 0.416*** 0.157 Higher Education 0.768*** 0.088 Area of Activity Informal Agriculture (Ref.) - - Informal Nongriculture 1.816*** 0.029 Formal Public Sector 1.923*** 0.061 Formal Private Sector 1.970*** 0.048 Professional Experience (Number of Years) 0.028*** 0.002 Squared Professional Experience -0.0004*** 0.000 R-squared ( %) 26.8 % n.a. Standard Deviation of Residuals 1.034 n.a. Source: PSIA 2009 data and authors’ calculations. Note: ***: Statistically significant at the 1% level; ** significant at the 5% level. The dependant variable is the natural logarithm of the annual income. The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 253 Simulation of the average income logarithm (and deduction of the average income) according to the education level Using estimates from the Mincer model and the average of the experience variable, it is possible to simulate the logarithm of workers’ average income according to their education level. The estimated model is then the following: The estimated rates of return are net of the impact of control variables in the model, including professional experience (in years) and the job sector. Once the earnings function is estimated, the average annual income is simulated for the different education levels (using the mean values of control variables: professional experience, squared experience and job sector occupation, as shown in Table 2). Table 2: Control Variables’ Mean Values Experience Informal Formal Formal Experience -Squared Nonagricultural Public Sector Private Sector 18.3 575.0 34.6% 5.2% 7.9% The simulated income logarithm is the sum of two factors: a constant factor (computed thanks to the constant term and the control variables’ means) and the factor that varies according to the schooling duration. The results are shown by level in Table 3: Table 3: Annual Income Logarithm, by Level No School (reference) 8.703 CHAPTER 5 ANNEXES Lower Basic 8.736 Upper Basic 8.916 Senior Secondary 9.140 TVET (Technical Colleges Only) 9.119 Higher Education 9.471 The simulated income should take into account the variance of the error factor in equation (1). In equation (4), s represents the standard deviation of the residuals, and is shown in the last row of Table 1 above. s²/2 = (1.034)²/2 = 0.535. Then the final results for expected income are shown by level in Table 4: 254 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) Table 4: Expected Income According to Education Level (15 years and above) Expected Income Expected Income without Unem- Taking Taking Unemployment ployment Unemployment Risk into Account (a) Rate (b) Risk into Account (a) * (1-b/100) No School (Reference) = Exp (8.703+ 0.535) D 10,280 1.5% D 10,128 Lower Basic = Exp (8.736+ 0.535) D 10,626 5.5% D 10,044 Upper Basic = Exp (8.916+ 0.535) D 12,715 13.0% D 11,067 Senior Secondary = Exp (9.140+ 0.535) D 15,903 23.0% D 12,251 TVET (Technical Colleges Only) = Exp (9.119+ 0.535) D 15,580 14.5% D 13,319 Higher Education = Exp (9.471+ 0.535) D 22,150 13.0% D 19,265 Source : PSIA 2009 data and authors’ calculations. Rates of Return On the basis of the simulated incomes above, the rate of return of the level k relative to the level k-1 is estimated by dividing the difference in wages between the two by the additional cost supported when pursuing schooling at level k. On the income side, it is necessary to take the unemployment rate into account (which may vary by education level), assuming that the unemployed have no income (See Table 4). Costs include direct training costs as well as the foregone earning (or opportunity cost) which is the income one would forgo while pursuing study to the level k. The forgone earning cost for level k is estimated by using the expected income at level k-1. More precisely, the formula below is used to estimate the rate of return of education level k relatively to education level k-1: Where is the employment rate (therefore is the unemployment rate) of individuals with education level k; is the simulated income of level k (See Table 4), is the average duration of schooling (years) within level k, is the difference between levels k and k-1 (years of schooling attended) and Ck is the direct training cost. The values of and are shown in Table 5, as well as the annual unit direct cost (public and private) as calculated in Chapter 3. With equation (4) it is possible to calculate both the social rate of return and the private rate of return. The two differ only by the components of the direct training costs. In the case of the private rate, the only component of Ck is the training cost supported by the individual himself (or his family); in the case of the social rate, the public cost is added. The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 255 Table 5: Schooling Duration, Unit Cost and Rates of Return, by Level Average Difference in Annual Unit Costs Number of Rate of Return Average Average (Dalasis) Years of Number of Number of Schooling Years of Years of within the Schooling Schooling Private Public Private Public Level k LBE 3.4 3.4 3.4 939 1,389 0% 0% UBE 8.1 4.7 2.1 2,918 1,784 2% 2% SSE 11.2 3.0 2.2 3,268 2,454 3% 3% TVET 14.1 2.9 2.1 4,508 2,625 2% 2% Higher * 14.5 3.3 2.5 9,212 14,913 11% 7% Source: PSIA, 2009 and authors’ calculations. Note: Higher is compared with senior secondary. For example the rate of return of upper basic education compared to lower basic education is calculated as follows: • The additional expected income is (See table 4): 11,067 – 10,044 = 1,023. • The social cost of upper basic is (forgone earning) + (annual private cost + annual public cost): 4.7 x 10,044 + 2.1 x (2,918 + 1,784) = 57,081. • The private cost of upper basic is: 4.7 x 10,044 + 2.1 x 2,918 = 53 335 Therefore, the social rate of return for upper primary is: 1,023/57,081 = 2%, and The private rate of return for upper primary is: 1,023/53,335 = 2%. CHAPTER 7 ANNEXES 256 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) CHAPTER 7 ANNEXES 5 (11) (7) > Annex Figure 7.1: Number of Students per Textbook in Private LBE, by Region, 2009/10 Number of Students per Textbook Grade 1 Grade 6 2.4 2.2 Number of Students per Textbook English 2.0 Math 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 3 (16) (9) > 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 - R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 Regions Source: MoBSE/EMIS, 2009/10 and authors’ computations. Note: Only schools with textbooks were considered in the computation as it was difficult to distinguish between schools with no textbooks and those for which data on textbooks were missing. Information was available for 244 government basic level schools, accounting for 60 percent of the school sample. Only useful textbooks are considered in this computation; when there were more textbooks than students for a specific grade, the number of textbooks was capped to the number of students in the related grade. 5 (7) Annex Map 7.1: Share of Qualified Teachers in (15) Lower Basic > Level Government-Funded Schools, by District, 2009/10 Percent Upper Saloum Nianija Lower Saloum Niamina East Niamina West Niamina Dankunku Niani Sami Jokadu Central Upper Baddibou Jangjangbureh Banjul Lower Niumi Lower Baddibou Baddibou Wuli KMC Jarra Fulladu West Kiang Jarra Jarra East Sandu Kombo North Upper Niumi East West Central Kiang West Kantora Kombo Kiang South Kombo Central Central Fulladu East Kombo Foni Foni Jerrol Foni Foni Jarrol East Brefet Bintang Foni Bondali Kansala Share of Qualified Teachers (%) 40 to 50 (2) 60 to 80 (26) 50 to 60 (7) > 80 (2) Source: Authors’ estimation based on MoBSE/EMIS, 2009/10 data and MoBSE/teacher head-count, 2009/10. Note: Qualified teachers include permanent teachers and qualified contract teachers. Based on government and grant-aided schools. The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 257 (3) (2) 6 Annex Map 7.2: Share of Qualified Teachers in Upper Basic Level Government-Funded Schools, 5 (7) by District, 2009/10 Percent Upper Saloum Nianija Lower Saloum Niamina East Niamina West Niamina Dankunku Niani Sami Jokadu Central Upper Baddibou Jangjangbureh Banjul Lower Niumi Lower Baddibou Baddibou Wuli KMC Jarra Fulladu West Kiang Jarra Jarra East Sandu Kombo North Upper Niumi East West Central Kiang West Kantora Kombo Kiang South Kombo Central Central Fulladu East Kombo Foni Foni Jarrol Foni Foni Jerrol East Brefet Bintang Foni Bondali Kansala Share of Qualified Teachers (%) 40 to 50 (3) 60 to 70 (3) 50 to 60 (2) 70 to 100 (29) Source: Authors’ estimation based on MoBSE/EMIS, 2009/10 data and MoBSE/teacher head-count, 2009/10. Note: Qualified teachers include permanent teachers and qualified contract teachers. Based on government and grant-aided schools. Annex Note 7.1: Teacher Allocation Formula The allocation of teachers is based on teacher requests (demand) from each region, conditioned by teacher supply. Each region defines its teacher needs and gaps using the formula below. The compiled teacher gaps provides the ministry with the teacher recruitment needs for that year. Ultimately, each region’s teacher needs form a certain percentage of the overall teacher needs. To obtain a proportional distribution, each regional percentage need is adjusted according to the total teacher supply. Where R1N is the teacher requirement of Region 1, R2N is the teacher requirement of Region 2, etc. the total teacher requirement is: ( TTN) = R1N + R2N + R3N + R4N + R5N + R6N Therefore, where TTN is the total teacher need, the regional percentage needs RPN are (showing RPN1 for Region 1): CHAPTER 7 ANNEXES R1N RPN1= x 100 TTN Where the teacher supply from The Gambia College is TS, the teacher allocation TA is (showing TA1 for Region 1): TA1 = RPN1 x TS R1N = x 100 x TS TTN Given that the above allocation is always short of teacher demand, the TTN-TA gap is filled with untrained teachers, or not filled at all. 258 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) Annex Note 7.2: Methodology Used to Analyze LBS Economies of Scale The relationship between the number of LBS teachers and students can be described as followed: Number of teachers = 0.0174 x number of students + 3.21862 (1) Multiplying both sides by the teacher annual mean wage (D 39,149) (taking into account the level of teacher qualification) results in the total teaching staff wage bill: Wage bill = 682 x number of students + 126,150 (2) In equation (2), the intercept 126,150 represents the school’s fixed costs or structural costs. The multiplicative coefficient of the “number of students� variable represents the marginal cost per student (the average wage bill cost of increasing the number of students by one). From equation (2), it is possible to compute the wage unit cost (per student), equivalent to the wage spending divided by the number of students enrolled: Wage unit cost = 126,150 +682 (3) number of students Equation (3) shows that the teacher wage unit cost corresponds to the addition of the marginal cost and the allocation of fixed costs between students enrolled. The larger the school size (the number of students enrolled) the larger this latter component (fixed costs are being allocated among a bigger number of students). Economies of scale can potentially occur in school administration. Table 1 represents the relationship between the size of enrollment (school size) and unit costs (personnel cost per student) at the primary level. Table1: Relationship between LBS Wage Unit Costs and the Number of Students, 2009 Number of 50 100 150 200 300 400 500 700 900 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 Students Wage Unit Cost 3,205 1,943 1,523 1,313 1,102 997 934 862 822 808 766 745 732 742 (Dalasi) Source: Authors’ simulation based on regression (1). A similar approach was used to analyze UBS economies of scale, relaying on the following relationship: Number of teachers = 0.0193 x number of students + 3.6451 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 259 Annex Note 7.3: Inspection and Other Supervision Mechanisms at Basic and Secondary Levels Inspection and Monitoring Mechanisms There is a series of monitoring mechanisms at various levels of the education system: internal classroom observation, school cluster monitoring, regional monitoring by regional offices, and sector monitoring by the Standards and Quality Directorate, the Planning, Policy Analysis, Research and Budgeting Directorate, the monitoring and evaluation unit, and the Performance Management System unit, that report to the coordinating committee meetings and senior management team meetings. The recent creation of the M&E Unit within MoBSE shall help to collate and analyze the various reports against sector policy targets, the education sector strategic plan and the operations plan to provide the sectors a view of how much is been achieved against those targets. Cluster monitors (CM) play a central role in this chain. The principal role of CMs is to assist schools in their drive for improvement and thus raise standards. One of their key roles is to facilitate the whole school development process by questioning, challenging, and supporting school management committees (SMCs) to assume their role in developing schools. CMs help head teachers to analyze school performance data, assist stakeholders, identify strengths and areas for improvement and assist SMCs. They help other stakeholders in planning development, setting targets, managing performance toward the targets and evaluating performance against the set goals. CMs are facilitators and advisers to schools and they help the schools achieve the best possible teaching and learning and the highest possible standards for pupils. Each CM is responsible for about ten schools in his/her cluster, which they visit at least three times a month. Cluster monitors are supervised by senior cluster monitors in each region. The latter assist with planning, holding regular meetings and report writing. Their services are not confined to assisting SQAD, but relate to all other directorates and education related organizations (Future in Our in Hands, Action Aid, and so forth) working with them at a CHAPTER 7 ANNEXES particular time. They are responsible for collecting mainly statistical education data for the planning directorate, and qualitative data for SQAD; the latter two directorates are responsible for aggregating the data into sector data and make subsequent analyses to inform policy. Senior cluster monitors are also responsible for dispatching information from other stakeholders to schools and vice-versa. More importantly, they provide technical support to school management teams. The 57 CMs are recruited in collaboration with regional education directorates, mainly from the pool of previous inspectors, senior teachers or head teachers. They are given various types of training in relation to data collection and analysis and the monitoring of school quality using standard tools. They are each provided with a motorcycle, a monthly fuel allocation and a laptop to facilitate their operations. They are also given monthly 260 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) allowances as a source of motivation, which are conditional upon them submitting monthly reports to the planning directorate. Some of the challenges faced by CMs are the increasing magnitude of demand from every stakeholder. They are also faced with capacity problems in the area of effective data analysis, especially for the consolidation of their reports to generate directorate reports. Regional Education Directorates (RED): Cluster monitors are not the only stakeholders that visit schools to provide support. The regional education directorates (comprising the regional director, principal education officers and other officers) also visit schools in their region at least once a month to give necessary support and advice on policy issues and other related matters. A challenge faced by some regions is that the REDs are underresourced to absorb all the work assigned to them. They do not usually have adequate skills (especially in IT) to manage their functions effectively. Some schools are so remote that access frequently becomes difficult. Furthermore, numerous unplanned activities from other stakeholders are frequently to be addressed, further increasing their work-load. The constraints mentioned make it difficult for REDs to meet their target of visiting every school in their region on a monthly basis. The Coordinating Committee Meeting (CCM), comprising the minister, the permanent secretary, the two deputy permanent secretaries, directors and principal education officers is the ministry’s monitoring mechanism. The CCM takes place every two months to discuss key issues in the ministry, in the regions and to visit randomly selected schools in the region. This committee uses the minimum standards tool developed by the ministry to gauge schools visited. The one-week programme includes a one-day scheduled school visit. Usually 15 schools are randomly selected to be visited, and the outcome of the school visits is used to rate the performance of the directorate. The pressing challenge is the representativity of the results gathered in terms of the performance of the region. Another challenge is the cost and management of hosting over 100 participants, considering logistics, food and accommodation. Facilities in some regions such as Region 3 are inadequate to hold meetings and therefore conducting the meetings in larger towns like Farafenni becomes quite challenging, especially in terms of logistics. At the School Level: the Role of Head Teachers and School Management Committees School head: School leaders are sensitized and trained to set up and perform internal monitoring with a view to supporting their teachers. School heads conduct school-based workshops as a result of the monitoring performed. In larger schools the deputies help to monitor teaching and learning practices. Activities in such schools are monitored by blocks, where each block has a head of block responsible for its day-to-day running. The heads of block report to the deputy head teachers or the head of school about matters pertaining to their blocks. They provide mentoring services and pedagogic support, The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 261 monitor attendance and intervene in teacher-learner issues. The heads of school sign Service Level Agreements (SLA) with the regional directors on an annual basis. They are also reviewed on their SLA performance areas every quarter. The reviews help directors to monitor what is happening in their schools. They also help schools to focus their efforts on the objectives set out in the SLAs. The SLA and the School Management Manual are effective tools that help school heads to manage their schools. Minimum standards, developed and approved during the 2010/11 academic year, are also going to help determine what is expected of teachers in terms of curriculum output. The school heads are recruited among experienced teachers through the normal Public Service Commission appointment procedure. The recruitment is based on them meeting all the Scheme of Service conditions set by the Personnel Management Office. Since 2006/07 a professional school-management training course is offered to head teachers or acting heads by the University of The Gambia. It is a one year residential course that focuses on school management. Head teachers opting for this one year course are released from their duty and receive a subsidy allowance from the MoBSE. The Role of the Teachers’ Union The Gambia’s Teachers’ Union is the only teachers’ union in The Gambia; almost every qualified teacher and over 80 percent of all teachers are registered. It was founded in 1937. It is affiliated to the Irish Teachers’ Union, the International Labour Organisation and other subregional organizations of common interest. The teachers’ union is also part of the Coordinating Committee Meeting, where they are abreast with developments in the education sector and matters affecting teachers. This helps to strengthen the relationship between the ministry and the union. The teachers’ union’s areas of intervention are: (i) to encourage and support teachers who wish to upgrade their skills and rank at the university or other higher education institutions in core subjects; (ii) to help these teachers improve their WASSCE results by providing extra mural classes for them during summer and Christmas holidays, and refund all fees paid for any subject teachers score a credit on; (iii) through assistance from Action CHAPTER 7 ANNEXES Aid International, they visit regions to meet their members, sensitize and conduct training on the dangers of HIV/AIDS, its stigma and discrimination, for trainers at the cluster and school levels; (iv) to sensitize teachers about their rights and codes of conduct, by publishing and distributing handbooks on such issues; (v) to disseminate teacher matters and intervene where teachers are faced with problems either with the ministry or the law; (vi) to hold annual best teacher award contests, to encourage best practice, which is done in a mass ceremony covered by the media; and (vii) to participate in teacher posting decisions and promote activities with the ministry. 262 The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) Annex Note 7.4: Main Management Policy Recommendations Based on the observations raised throughout Chapter 7, some policy orientations can be formulated. Regarding the administrative management of teachers, there are possible measures that could help improve their allocation across schools. First, it would be worthwhile to evaluate the incentive package offered to teachers posted in remote areas as its cost-effectiveness is still not clear, and if necessary review its mechanism accordingly. Annually monitoring teacher mobility and its causes beyond the teaching profession (attrition) and across schools would also contribute to better understand teacher turnover and job satisfaction and better anticipate teacher needs. Gaining some insight into management practices from Region 2 could help other regions with weaker administrative teacher management. Pedagogical management is clearly below par: there appears to be virtually no relation between a school’s resources and its students’ academic performance. This is not to say that resources are not important. What it suggests is that the way resources are been used and managed at school and classroom levels are even more important. This refers to many aspects related to teachers’ and head teachers’ own attributes (such as teachers’ pedagogical approaches and skills; classroom management practices, including the time devoted to teaching, head teachers’ management skills and leadership; and the motivation of whole school teams). This also raises a supervision/inspection issue. Current interventions (such as the management programme delivered by the University of The Gambia to head teachers, the Whole School Development Programme and the performance management system) should help to enhance results-based management and raise accountability in the years to come, as will the use of school report cards with comparative data. Special attention should also be given to teachers’ professional development and teacher training given the low level of knowledge content of many of them. The recent set-up of an in-service training unit within MoBSE is a very positive move towards the development of a comprehensive continuous teacher development strategy. Sustained efforts are required on this front, in concordance with interventions targeted to improve pre-service trainings. Improving overall teacher quality (in terms of skills, knowledge of content and class management) is indeed crucial to enhance the effectiveness of the process of transforming education inputs into learning outcomes. Indeed, growing evidence tends to show that classroom practices are what ultimately matter. In addition, specific strategies should be devised to ensure qualified teachers remain at the level they have been initially trained for. Indeed, the current career path tends to favor the transition of the most qualified teaching staff from primary to postprimary levels and to administrative positions, thus depriving the lower basic level of its most skilled labor. These observations call for the need to implement a comprehensive teacher policy, clearly The Gambia Education Country Status Report (CSR) 263 defining recruitment, posting and mobility conditions as well as training opportunities and individual career path options (including salary progression), that serve both teachers’ individual interests and those of the whole education system. This, coupled with ongoing and forthcoming interventions targeted to improve the local management of quality (see Chapter 4), could greatly help in improving the general quality of the education system. In the current context of school development, expanding existing small schools could be an option to offer access to a wider school population at a reasonable cost. This should however be examined on a case by case basis, relying on the school mapping to avoid the risk of constraining access to schools due to excessive distances from homes. 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Its main purpose is to enable decision makers to orient national policy on the basis of a factual diagnosis of the overall education sector and to provide relevant analytical information for the dialogue between the government, development partners and civil society. The Gambian report offers not only traditional and basic indicators such as gross enrollment rates, but also analyzes the Photo on cover: © Alpha Bah performance of the education system in terms of access, internal efficiency and learning outcomes; equity; external efficiency and its alignment with labor market needs; resource allocation and utilization; and management. It takes into account revised population data estimates and projections down to the district level that were computed by the Country Status Report joint team and that were recently published by the Gambia Bureau of Statistics.