For more information, visit http://www.worldbank.org/prospects January 6, 2017 Taking Stock  U.S. non-farm job growth slowed in December, wages posted strong gains. U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 156,000 in December, less than market expectation. Non-farm payroll employment for November was revised upward from 178,000 to 204,000. The December unemployment rate ticked up to 4.7 percent from 4.6 percent in November, in line with expectations (Figure 1). Labor force participation was 62.7 percent, up from 62.6 percent in November. Average hourly earnings rose by 2.9 percent (y/y), following November’s 2.5 percent increase, pointing to a tightening labor market .  Euro Area inflation rose to its highest level since 2013, economic activity strengthened. Headline inflation in the Euro Area rose 1.1 percent (y/y) in December, reaching its highest level since September 2013, up from 0.6 percent in November. The pickup in inflation was largely due to a rise in energy prices. Core inflation, excluding energy and food prices, remained subdued, rising 0.1 percentage point to 0.9 percent (y/y) in December. Meanwhile, the Markit composite purchasing managers’ index (PMI) came in at 54.4 in December, more than expected and above the flash estimate of 53.9 (a reading above 50 indicates expansion). Manufacturing led the better-than-expected composite PMI reading, as the depreciation of the euro helped boost goods exports.  Japan’s manufacturing PMI rose to a 12-month high in December. The Nikkei Japan manufacturing PMI rose from 51.3 in November to 52.4 in December, its highest level since December 2015, signaling a strong improvement in the manufacturing sector. Output grew at its fastest pace in 2016, underpinned by a solid increase in new orders.  Emerging-market manufacturing continued to expand in December. The Manufacturing PMI edged higher in December, supported by rising new orders and increased levels of employment. In particular, conditions continued to improve in China and Russia. In China, the Caixin manufacturing PMI rose from 50.9 in November to 51.9 in December, while Russia’s manufacturing PMI edged up to a six-year high of 53.7 from 53.6 in November. However, the outlook for the manufacturing sectors in India and Brazil deteriorated. In India, the PMI fell from 52.3 in November to 49.6 in December. In Brazil, the PMI dropped to a six-month low of 45.2 from 46.2 in November.  Manufacturing recovered in Sub-Saharan Africa’s largest economies. In South Africa, the seasonally adjusted Barclays PMI rose from 45.9 in October to 48.3 in November, reversing October’s loss (Figure 2). However, the PMI stayed below the 50-mark, suggesting that the manufacturing sector remains under pressure. Meanwhile, the Central Bank of Nigeria manufacturing PMI rose from 46 in November to 52 in December, moving above the 50-mark for the first time in a year. Factory production, new orders and inventories improved significantly in December. Figure 1 U.S. unemployment rate ticked up in December. Figure 2 South African and Nigerian manufacturing recovered. Unemployment rate Manufacturing PMI Percent Index, SA, 50+=Expansion 10 60 Nigeria South Africa 8 55 6 50 4 45 2 40 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-15 Dec-07 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-16 Jul-14 Nov-14 Mar-15 Jul-15 Nov-15 Mar-16 Jul-16 Nov-16 Source: U.S. Labor Department. Source: Haver Analytics. Produced by DECPG. Number 330 | January 6, 2017 Weekly Insight: Potential Implications of Negative Interest Rate Policies for Emerging Market and Developing Economies Negative interest rate policies (NIRP) by major central banks, along with other unconventional accommodative monetary policies, could help support appetite for riskier, higher-yielding assets, including those of emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs), thus inducing capital flows to these economies. NIRP by major central banks could help support the demand for riskier, higher-yielding assets, including those of EMDEs. For instance, since the implementation of NIRP by the European Central Banks in 2014, EMDE borrowers have increased the volume of bond issuance denominated in euro, taking advantage of exceptionally low borrowing costs (Figure 3). In an effort to compensate for negative or extremely low interest rates at home, European insurance companies and other institutional investors have shown increased appetite for higher-yielding investment-grade EMDE debt. EMDE regions that could benefit the most from low interest rates in the euro area include Europe and Central Asia (which has the largest share of capital inflows supplied by euro area residents), followed by Latin America and the Caribbean (through foreign direct investment), Sub-Saharan Africa (primarily through bank flows), and the Middle East and North Africa (through portfolio and bank flows). Increasing monetary policy divergence in advanced economies could disrupt capital inflows to EMDEs. Increasingly divergent monetary policies across major central banks have partly contributed to an appreciation of the U.S. dollar, which has been accompanied by considerable pressures on some EMDE currencies. In turn, these pressures have contributed to a higher cost of debt servicing and rising credit risks for the most exposed EMDEs. The divergence in monetary policy is expected to continue (Figure 4). NIRP in Europe and Japan could lead to further volatility in currency markets and renewed upward pressure on the U.S. dollar, with repercussions for EMDEs. Weak macroeconomic fundamentals in a number of EMDEs could reinforce these adverse effects and limit the potential benefits from NIRP. EMDE growth has slowed for six consecutive years, estimated to be reaching in 2016 its slowest pace since the global financial crisis. The slowdown has been more pronounced than previously expected, reflecting a combination of external and domestic headwinds. Weak global trade and falling commodity prices have weighed heavily on EMDE prospects since 2012, particularly among commodity-exporting EMDEs. Sovereign ratings across a sizable number of EMDEs have been downgraded in a context of a growing stock of EMDE bonds maturing in the near term, raising roll-over risks. All these factors have reduced the relative attractiveness of EMDE assets. This could limit potential gains from favorable financing conditions due to NIRP in major central banks. Figure 3 Since the start of NIRP by the ECB, EMDE borrowers have Figure 4 Reflecting NIRP, monetary policy is expected to contnue to increased the volume of bond issuance in euro. diverge among major central banks in advanced economies. EMDE bond issuance by currency Policy interest rate expectations 12-month rolling sum, index = 100 in Jan 2012 Percent 400 7 United States 1 US Dollar Euro Other Euro Area 6 Japan 300 5 4 200 3 2 100 1 0 0 -1 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 Sources: Bloomberg, Haver Analytics, and World Bank. Notes: Figure 3. ECB stands for European Central Bank. Last observation is December 2016. Figure 4. Forecast values implied from overnight indexed swap (OIS) forward rates. Last observation is December 2016. Produced by DECPG. Number 330 | January 6, 2017 Major Data Releases (Percent change y-o-y) (Percent change y-o-y) Recent releases: Fri, 30 December - Thu, 5 January 2017 Upcoming releases: Fri, 6 January - Thu, 12 January 2017 Country Date Indicator Period Actual Forecast Previous Country Date Indicator Period Previous Spain 12/30/16 CPI DEC 1.5 0.9 0.7 Mexico 1/9/17 CPI DEC 3.3 Indonesia 1/3/17 CPI DEC 3.0 3.6 Denmark 1/10/17 CPI DEC 0.4 Turkey 1/3/17 CPI DEC 8.5 8.1 7.0 Brazil 1/11/17 CPI DEC 7.0 Germany 1/3/17 CPI DEC 1.7 1.6 0.8 France 1/12/17 CPI DEC 0.5 Thailand 1/4/17 CPI DEC 1.1 1.0 0.6 Sweden 1/12/17 CPI DEC 1.4 Switzerland 1/5/17 CPI DEC 0.0 -0.3 China 1/12/17 GDP Q4 6.7 Activity and Inflation (Percent change y-o-y, except quarterly data on industrial production, which are percent change q-o-q, annualized) 2015 2016 2016 2014 2015 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov 1 Industrial Production, sa World 3.2 2.0 1.5 1.3 2.1 2.6 1.8 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.9 1.5 2.3 1.9 1.5 - Advanced Economies 2.0 0.5 -1.4 0.1 -0.1 2.1 0.2 -1.1 -1.0 0.0 -0.4 -0.2 -0.4 0.6 0.2 -0.1 - Emerging Market and Developing Economies 4.5 3.4 4.5 2.4 4.3 3.2 3.4 3.9 3.6 3.1 3.6 4.1 3.4 4.0 3.5 3.1 - Commodity-exporting EMDE 0.0 -0.3 1.3 0.7 1.7 -0.1 0.3 1.8 -0.8 -0.8 0.4 1.8 2.0 0.8 0.0 -1.3 - Other EMDE 6.8 5.1 5.7 3.0 5.4 3.6 4.7 4.7 5.4 4.7 4.9 4.9 3.9 4.9 4.5 4.3 5.0 East Asia and Pacific 7.5 5.8 7.7 3.4 7.1 5.5 5.5 5.5 6.3 5.5 6.0 6.1 5.9 6.3 5.5 5.3 5.4 East Asia excl. China 3.0 3.6 6.4 4.2 3.6 4.7 5.5 5.5 3.2 2.0 5.7 6.5 5.9 6.2 2.1 0.3 - Europe and Central Asia 2.7 0.6 3.5 1.4 0.7 -3.4 1.7 3.1 1.2 2.4 1.9 1.7 -0.2 1.3 0.4 1.1 1.6 Latin America and Caribbean -0.7 -3.2 -6.4 -2.8 0.6 -1.2 -4.2 -4.9 -4.4 -4.3 -3.6 -2.1 -2.5 -2.8 -2.2 -3.0 - Middle East and North Africa 0.8 2.6 9.6 2.3 -3.4 - 6.6 7.0 2.6 1.9 2.3 3.2 4.4 - - - - South Asia 2.5 4.1 -6.7 4.0 5.7 -3.3 0.0 3.3 2.3 -0.5 1.6 2.9 -2.2 1.0 0.6 -1.3 - Sub-Saharan Africa -0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.4 8.4 -6.4 -0.9 1.5 -1.3 2.4 4.1 4.2 1.4 0.0 -0.1 -1.3 - 2 Inflation, sa World 2.1 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.6 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.6 1.6 1.3 1.4 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.5 Advanced Economies 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 Emerging Market and Developing Economies 3.3 2.5 2.1 2.5 2.7 2.8 2.5 2.7 2.4 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.8 2.6 2.8 2.6 2.4 Commodity-exporting EMDE 3.7 3.7 3.3 3.4 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.8 3.3 3.1 3.4 3.5 Other EMDE 2.6 1.0 1.1 1.1 2.0 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.0 1.9 1.6 1.2 1.2 0.9 1.0 1.4 1.6 East Asia and Pacific 3.2 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.6 2.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.6 2.1 1.8 1.9 1.7 2.3 2.4 2.4 Europe and Central Asia 1.6 1.7 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.5 1.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 1.2 0.5 0.5 0.9 0.9 Latin America and Caribbean 3.4 2.7 2.3 2.7 3.5 3.0 2.6 2.6 2.5 3.6 3.4 3.3 2.9 2.9 3.0 2.9 3.2 Middle East and North Africa 2.7 1.9 1.8 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.4 2.3 2.1 2.5 1.9 2.0 South Asia 6.8 3.5 3.0 3.5 4.8 4.8 3.3 3.6 4.0 4.4 5.0 5.6 5.4 4.5 4.4 4.2 3.8 Sub-Saharan Africa 4.4 3.8 4.1 4.5 5.0 6.0 4.4 4.5 4.7 4.7 3.7 4.7 6.0 6.1 6.3 6.5 6.7 1 Industrial production is total production (may exclude construction). When data are unavailable, "industral production, manufacturing" and "industrial production, manufacturing, non-durable manufacturing, petroleum and coal products, crude petrolem products" are used as proxies 2 Median inflation rate for each grouping. Trade and Finance (Percent change y-o-y, except quarterly trade data, which are percent change q-o-q, annualized, and international reserves data, which are percent change over the previous period) 2015 2016 2016 2014 2015 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Jan Feb Mar Apr May June Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Exports, Nominal, US$, sa World 1.1 -11.6 -5.6 -12.9 15.3 -0.7 -12.3 -9.2 -3.7 -2.7 -3.0 -3.9 -6.5 3.0 -0.8 -3.8 - Advanced Economies 1.2 -11.3 -6.0 -5.7 16.5 -1.3 -9.4 -4.1 -3.6 0.0 -0.5 -2.2 -5.1 5.5 1.3 -2.5 - Emerging Market and Developing Economies 0.8 -12.0 -4.9 -23.7 13.1 0.3 -16.7 -16.7 -4.1 -7.2 -7.0 -6.6 -8.7 -1.3 -4.1 -5.7 - Commodity-exporting EMDE -4.6 -24.2 -12.1 -24.0 18.0 4.2 -24.6 -13.3 -15.2 -13.2 -10.6 -11.8 -13.7 -0.1 0.0 -5.3 - Other EMDE 4.9 -3.8 -0.9 -22.1 11.4 -0.9 -12.2 -17.8 3.8 -3.3 -4.5 -3.0 -5.7 -0.9 -5.1 -5.3 1.2 East Asia and Pacific 4.6 -3.5 -1.7 -26.1 12.8 -0.7 -14.5 -21.3 5.3 -5.0 -6.0 -5.1 -6.8 -1.5 -6.7 -5.9 1.6 Europe and Central Asia -0.9 -20.7 -6.4 -20.5 21.1 -2.2 -22.1 -13.0 -13.1 -8.0 -10.4 -4.2 -8.8 1.0 -1.3 -3.7 - Latin America and Caribbean -1.0 -11.9 -9.7 -5.8 4.5 6.5 -11.6 -4.0 -9.2 -5.3 -2.1 -8.2 -7.6 2.0 1.9 -5.4 10.8 Middle East and North Africa -5.1 -26.3 -7.8 - - - -23.2 - - - - - - - - - - South Asia 4.0 -4.8 10.0 6.0 3.8 -18.4 -2.9 4.2 -0.2 1.3 -0.3 5.3 -3.9 5.8 -3.0 5.6 - Sub-Saharan Africa -6.5 -28.8 -17.1 -28.3 - - -27.5 -22.8 -19.7 -13.6 - - - - - - - Imports, Nominal, US$, sa World 1.2 -12.6 -6.8 -13.5 10.6 -2.9 -12.2 -5.4 -7.4 -5.8 -2.4 -5.2 -9.8 1.6 -2.2 -4.5 - Advanced Economies 2.1 -12.5 -6.7 -9.0 8.7 -4.3 -10.4 -2.8 -6.5 -3.9 -1.9 -4.6 -8.3 1.5 -2.3 -5.3 - Emerging Market and Developing Economies -0.4 -12.8 -7.0 -20.7 14.8 0.2 -15.2 -9.7 -8.7 -9.1 -3.0 -5.9 -12.1 2.3 -1.9 -2.5 4.5 Commodity-exporting EMDE -2.3 -14.9 -12.2 -17.5 -0.4 -1.3 -18.1 -15.3 -13.8 -13.7 -9.2 -8.7 -16.0 -1.6 -6.7 -7.3 - Other EMDE 0.8 -11.5 -4.0 -23.8 20.5 0.7 -13.5 -6.9 -6.4 -7.5 -0.6 -5.4 -11.4 3.7 -0.5 -1.0 4.9 East Asia and Pacific -0.5 -13.1 -1.5 -28.5 24.9 3.9 -17.0 -11.1 -5.4 -8.2 0.7 -6.7 -11.0 5.5 -0.5 -1.0 4.7 Europe and Central Asia -3.7 -20.7 -9.3 4.0 12.5 -5.4 -14.8 -5.0 -3.6 -3.0 -1.0 1.2 -9.9 8.5 2.0 -0.3 - Latin America and Caribbean -0.7 -9.9 -13.4 -16.3 3.9 2.9 -16.3 -9.9 -14.6 -9.9 -6.3 -8.9 -16.0 1.4 -3.4 -8.8 1.5 Middle East and North Africa 2.9 -6.3 -7.5 - - - -13.0 - - - - - - - - - - South Asia 1.1 -13.2 -15.8 -26.9 5.8 7.4 -6.6 -3.1 -18.1 -18.1 -8.6 -5.8 -14.6 -9.7 -0.7 7.8 10.7 Sub-Saharan Africa 2.0 -7.4 -7.1 - - - -18.7 - - - - - - - - - - 1 International Reserves, US$ World -1.3 -5.8 -2.7 0.7 1.0 0.6 -0.9 0.5 1.0 0.7 -0.7 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.3 -1.0 -1.4 Advanced Economies 0.1 0.6 -1.1 3.7 1.8 1.6 0.9 1.3 1.5 1.0 -0.6 1.4 0.5 0.1 1.0 -0.8 -0.8 Emerging Market and Developing Economies -2.1 -9.9 -3.6 -1.1 0.4 -0.2 -1.9 0.1 0.8 0.6 -0.8 0.6 0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -1.2 -1.7 Commodity-exporting EMDE -6.9 -11.0 -2.0 -0.9 0.0 - -1.6 0.2 0.6 0.3 -0.8 0.4 0.5 - - - - Other EMDE 0.6 -9.1 -4.4 -1.2 0.7 -0.5 -2.1 0.0 0.8 0.7 -0.8 0.7 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -1.1 -2.0 East Asia and Pacific 0.2 -11.3 -4.4 -1.8 0.3 -0.8 -2.5 0.0 0.7 0.5 -1.0 0.9 0.0 -0.4 -0.4 -1.3 -2.3 Europe and Central Asia -16.7 -6.3 -3.7 4.0 2.8 1.1 0.6 1.9 1.4 1.6 -0.1 1.4 0.4 0.5 0.2 -0.8 -1.4 Latin America and Caribbean 0.1 -5.3 -1.5 0.1 0.6 1.6 -0.6 0.1 0.7 0.8 -0.2 -0.1 1.6 -0.1 -0.1 -0.5 -0.5 Middle East and North Africa -2.7 -16.9 -3.7 -3.4 - - -2.7 -0.6 -0.2 -0.5 - - - - - - - South Asia 11.3 11.7 1.3 1.0 2.0 3.5 -1.1 -0.2 2.3 2.0 -0.8 0.8 1.5 0.6 1.3 -0.9 -0.7 Sub-Saharan Africa -9.6 -11.9 -0.1 -2.1 - - -1.5 -1.5 1.0 0.4 -1.6 - - - - - - 1 Total reserves excluding gold are used as proxies when total reserves data are unavailable. Produced by DECPG. Number 330 | January 6, 2017 Financial Markets 2015 2016 2016 MRV 1 2014 2015 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Interest rates and LIBOR (percent) U.S. Fed Funds Effective 0.09 0.13 0.16 0.37 0.37 0.39 0.36 0.37 0.37 0.37 0.36 0.38 0.39 0.40 0.40 0.41 0.41 0.55 0.66 ECB repo 0.16 0.05 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 US$ LIBOR 3-months 0.23 0.32 0.41 0.62 0.64 0.79 0.62 0.62 0.63 0.63 0.65 0.65 0.70 0.81 0.85 0.88 0.91 0.98 1.01 EURIBOR 3-months 0.06 -0.02 -0.09 -0.19 -0.26 -0.30 -0.15 -0.18 -0.23 -0.25 -0.26 -0.27 -0.29 -0.30 -0.30 -0.31 -0.31 0.00 -0.32 US 10-yr Treasury yield 2.53 2.12 2.18 1.92 1.75 1.56 2.11 1.77 1.88 1.79 1.80 1.64 1.48 1.56 1.63 1.74 2.12 2.50 2.56 German Bund, 10 yr 1.24 0.54 0.56 0.32 0.12 -0.07 0.51 0.23 0.21 0.17 0.16 0.01 -0.09 -0.07 -0.05 0.03 0.22 0.30 0.21 Spreads (basis points) JP Morgan Emerging Markets 330 426 431 478 419 372 485 507 443 421 418 418 387 367 361 357 380 370 357 Asia 206 232 245 264 227 197 268 282 243 224 223 233 210 190 191 192 201 198 188 Europe 287 348 311 339 305 282 338 359 319 308 305 303 290 282 273 274 294 282 269 Latin America & Caribbean 407 559 577 645 551 477 662 687 588 559 552 541 496 473 463 453 491 481 468 Middle East 388 471 506 555 538 508 542 580 545 539 530 545 540 492 493 487 475 438 427 Africa 323 449 509 626 548 461 644 661 573 546 552 546 494 448 440 441 444 422 393 Stock Indices (end of period) Global (MSCI) 417 399 399 395 399 418 375 372 395 403 403 399 414 417 418 413 413 424 430 Advanced Economies ($ Index) 1710 1663 1663 1638 1653 1726 1562 1547 1638 1671 1675 1653 1713 1720 1726 1697 1712 1761 1782 United States (S&P 500) 2059 2044 2044 2051 2099 2168 1940 1932 2051 2065 2097 2099 2170 2171 2168 2139 2199 2255 2268 Europe (S&P Euro 350) 1401 1474 1474 1352 1339 1388 1381 1347 1352 1379 1399 1339 1376 1390 1388 1377 1388 1475 1486 Japan (Nikkei 225) 16292 16292 18817 16555 15576 16450 17518 15989 16555 16407 17235 15576 16556 16887 16450 17050 18604 19302 19454 Emerging Market and Developing Economies (MSCI) 956 794 794 821 834 903 742 740 821 840 807 834 879 894 903 908 863 861 882 EM Asia 457 404 404 404 407 448 374 369 404 405 400 407 431 442 448 444 426 419 429 EM Europe 297 244 244 272 265 273 237 241 272 288 268 265 264 269 273 274 273 295 300 EM Europe & Middle East 257 211 211 230 225 233 202 208 230 243 225 225 227 232 233 232 230 248 253 EM Latin America & Caribbean 2728 1830 1830 2121 2269 2381 1744 1804 2121 2292 2038 2269 2359 2402 2381 2608 2330 2341 2403 Exchange Rates (LCU / USD) Advanced Economies Euro Area 0.75 0.90 0.91 0.91 0.89 0.90 0.92 0.90 0.90 0.88 0.89 0.89 0.90 0.89 0.89 0.91 0.93 0.95 0.95 Japan 105.89 121.00 121.41 115.23 107.96 102.36 118.37 114.44 112.87 109.57 108.97 105.34 104.09 101.31 101.69 103.72 108.90 116.26 116.48 Emerging and Developing Economies Brazil 2.35 3.33 3.84 3.91 3.51 3.25 4.06 3.97 3.70 3.56 3.54 3.42 3.28 3.21 3.25 3.18 3.33 3.35 3.21 China 6.16 6.29 6.39 6.54 6.53 6.67 6.57 6.55 6.51 6.48 6.53 6.59 6.68 6.65 6.67 6.74 6.85 6.92 6.92 Egypt 7.08 7.70 7.88 8.04 8.87 8.87 7.83 7.82 8.47 8.87 8.86 8.87 8.87 8.87 8.88 9.25 16.34 18.56 18.19 India 61.03 64.14 65.91 67.50 66.91 66.94 67.31 68.22 66.95 66.49 66.93 67.29 67.18 66.91 66.74 66.73 67.60 67.86 67.96 Russia 38.58 61.34 66.17 74.84 65.84 64.61 77.36 77.23 69.93 66.54 65.96 65.01 64.43 64.93 64.48 62.57 64.25 62.02 59.48 South Africa 10.85 12.77 14.22 15.83 15.01 14.07 16.30 15.79 15.39 14.62 15.36 15.05 14.40 13.79 14.01 13.92 13.96 13.87 13.69 Memo: U.S. nominal effective rate (index) 102.2 114.7 118.1 120.3 117.5 118.4 121.8 120.7 118.4 116.5 117.8 118.2 118.9 117.8 118.6 119.7 122.9 124.9 126.1 1 MRV = Most Recent Value. Commodity Prices 2015 2016 2016 MRV 1 2014 2015 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Energy 2 118 65 54 43 56 57 40 41 47 51 57 59 57 58 58 64 59 68 77 Non-energy 2 97 82 78 76 81 82 75 76 78 80 81 83 82 82 81 81 84 83 82 2 Agriculture 103 89 86 85 91 91 84 84 86 88 91 94 92 91 90 90 90 89 89 2 Metals and minerals 88 68 60 59 62 65 56 59 62 63 61 61 65 65 64 65 73 75 72 Memo items: Crude oil, average ($/bbl) 96 51 42 33 45 45 30 31 37 41 46 48 44 45 45 49 45 53 54 Gold ($/toz) 1266 1161 1107 1181 1260 1334 1098 1200 1245 1242 1261 1276 1337 1340 1327 1267 1238 1157 1102 Baltic Dry Index 1103 711 627 363 613 736 391 307 390 608 623 608 707 675 826 870 1080 1029 961 Source: World Bank, World Bank Commodities Price Data (The Pink Sheet), Bloomberg 1 MRV = Most Recent Value. 2 Indexes, 2010 = 100. Produced by DECPG. Number 330 | January 6, 2017