The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Ayeyarwady Integrated River Basin Management Project (P146482) Ayeyarwady Integrated River Basin Management Project (P146482) EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC | Myanmar | Water Global Practice | IBRD/IDA | Investment Project Financing | FY 2015 | Seq No: 9 | ARCHIVED on 24-Jun-2019 | ISR37042 | Implementing Agencies: Republic of the Union of Myanmar, Directorate of Water Resources and Improvement of River Systems, Ministy of Transport Key Dates Key Project Dates Bank Approval Date: 09-Dec-2014 Effectiveness Date: 10-Jun-2015 Planned Mid Term Review Date: 01-Mar-2018 Actual Mid-Term Review Date: 19-Mar-2018 Original Closing Date: 30-Sep-2020 Revised Closing Date: 30-Sep-2020 pdoTable Project Development Objectives Project Development Objective (from Project Appraisal Document) The program development objective for the Series of Projects (of which the AIRBM will be the first) is to strengthen integrated,climate resilient management and development of the Ayeyarwady River Basin and national water resources. The project development objective of the AIRBM is to contribute to the development of integrated river basin management on the Ayeyarwady river. Has the Project Development Objective been changed since Board Approval of the Project Objective? Yes Board Approved Revised Project Development Objective (If project is formally restructured) The program development objective for the Series of Projects (of which the AIRBM will be the first) is to strengthen integrated,climate resilient management and development of the Ayeyarwady River Basin and national water resources. The project development objective of the AIRBM is to contribute to the development of integrated river basin management on the Ayeyarwady river, and, in the event of an Eligible Crisis or Emergency, to provide immediate and effective response to said Eligible Crisis or Emergency. Components Table Name Component 1: Water Resource Management Institutions, Decision Support Systems & Capacity Building:(Cost $30.50 M) Component 2. Hydro-meteorological Observation and Information Systems Modernization:(Cost $28.80 M) Component 3. Navigation Enhancement on the Ayeyarwady River:(Cost $36.10 M) Component 4. Contingent Emergency Response:(Cost $4.60 M) Overall Ratings Name Previous Rating Current Rating Progress towards achievement of PDO Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory Overall Implementation Progress (IP) Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory Overall Risk Rating High High 6/24/2019 Page 1 of 8 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Ayeyarwady Integrated River Basin Management Project (P146482) Implementation Status and Key Decisions Progress towards achieving PDO: Since the last mission in September 2018, Components 1 and 3 have advanced most; while Component 2 still has many activities in an advanced stage of procurement. A summary of implementation progress with regards to activities outlined in the Project Appraisal Document (PAD) is presented below.  Component 1 (Integrated Water Resources Management). The Bank team noted progress with the preparation of the draft Water Law and commitments from two of the seven nexus ministries to second high level staff to the NWRC. The detailed design for the NWRC/HIC headquarters building in Yangon has been finalized and Bidding Documents are soon ready for Bank’s review. The first phase of the development of a River Basin Master Plan has been completed with the finalization of the Preliminary Basin Planning Report in February and the DSS Status Report in May 2019. The next deliverable entails the scenario development report. The Preparation of Future Investments (PFI) sub-component is delayed and insufficient budget is available to complete activities to the level of a detailed design. The Bank team recommended waiting for the results from the Pan Hlaing Vision consultancy and the Netherlands-supported Regional Water Security Study (RWSS) to inform the feasibility studies for the Yangon IWRM project.  Component 2 (Hydro-met Modernisation) Despite large progress in managing the procurement load, Component 2 is behind schedule with regards to implementation. DMH has completed a draft version of the hydro-met law and a comprehensive capacity building program for implementation by WMO. The Bank team noted strong progress in implementation of packages identified under the Concept of Operations (CONOPS), towards modernization of DMH’s observation system and weather and flood forecasting, of which a number of important contracts are expected to be signed soon. C2 technical team will prepare a business plan before the end of 2019 to be presented to the MoTC outlining the financial support required to sustain the investments made under this project.  Component 3 (Navigation Enhancement on the Ayeyarwady River). Component 3 has made strong progress towards achieving the PDO. 80% of the channel stabilization works for sub-project 1 are completed and all remaining works will be completed in the next dry season. The mission concluded to limit the stretch of the river for installation of channel stabilization works to the stretch of the Ayeyarwady river between Mandalay and Sagaing. Detailed design, bidding document as well as the ESIA and ESMP/RAP for the remaining part of the river between Sagaing and Nyaung-Oo will be prepared but the works will need to be implemented under a follow-on operation. The project has completed the installation of Aids-to-Navigation (buoys) between Mandalay and Nyaung-Oo, received hydro-graphic survey equipment, and a multi-purpose buoy handling vessel and an amphibious dredger. The quality and durability of the micro-projects will need to be assessed before new micro-projects are approved. An on-site post-review and learning exercise of the micro-projects will be conducted during the next dry season.  Component 4 (CERC/IRM). DMH has submitted a final report justifying the installation of 100 Automatic Weather Stations (AWS) by United Nations Office for Project Services (UNOPS) financed through the IRM component. Risks Systematic Operations Risk-rating Tool Risk Category Rating at Approval Previous Rating Current Rating Political and Governance -- High High Macroeconomic -- Moderate Moderate Sector Strategies and Policies -- Moderate Moderate Technical Design of Project or Program -- Substantial Substantial Institutional Capacity for Implementation and Sustainability -- Substantial Substantial Fiduciary -- Substantial Substantial Environment and Social -- High High Stakeholders -- High High Other -- -- -- Overall -- High High 6/24/2019 Page 2 of 8 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Ayeyarwady Integrated River Basin Management Project (P146482) Results PDO Indicators by Objectives / Outcomes To contribute to the development of integrated river basin management on the Ayeyarwady River IN00701886 ►Component 1: River Basin Master Plan (Yes/No, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value No No No Yes Date 09-Dec-2014 30-Nov-2018 14-Jun-2019 31-Mar-2020 Status: the first phase of the development of a River Basin Master Plan has been completed with the finalization of the Preliminary Basin Planning Report in February and the DSS Status Report in May 2019. Comments: The next deliverable is expected to be delivered in June, which entails the scenario development report. Revision of RF: Revised Indicator Name: "River Basin Master Plan Developed"; IN00701887 ►Component 1: Preparation of Feasibility Studies (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.00 Date 09-Dec-2014 30-Nov-2018 14-Jun-2019 31-Mar-2020 Status: Two investments packages defined; (i) Yangon IWRM Project:The PMU has started a small consultancy contract for the Pan Hlaing Vision, with the objective to identify no-regret water infrastructure options for the Pan Hlaing river basin. In anticipation of a project extension the mission agreed to postpone the launch of the Yangon IWRM FS waiting for results coming from the Netherlands-supported Regional Water Security Study (RWSS) project, and (ii) Ayeyarwady Navigation Enhancement Works: two Comments: consultancy contracts for ESIA and FS for technical design for Stretch 1 engineering design have been signed and the consultants are in the inception stage. During the ISM the PMU agreed to allocate funds for Stretch 2 from Component 1 PFI to Component 3 as the scope of this activity best fits Component 3. Revised RF: PDO indicator moved to Intermediate results indicator (IRI) IN00701888 ►Component 2: Hydro-Met Products (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.00 Date 09-Dec-2014 30-Nov-2018 14-Jun-2019 31-Mar-2020 Status: RFP for Impact-based Flood Forecasting has been issued and proposals for Agricultural Climate Advisory Services are expected soon (tentatively by XX) Revised RF: Revised Indicator name: "Improved DMH weather and climate services (custom, %)", Comments: Revised Indicator definition: A User Satisfaction Index of > 65% of users scoring DMH services as “moderately satisfactory” or “good. The baseline was established during the project at the Monsoon Forum 2018 as 45%". IN00701889 ►Component 2: Hydro-Met Stations Functioning per SOP (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target 6/24/2019 Page 3 of 8 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Ayeyarwady Integrated River Basin Management Project (P146482) Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 90.00 Date 09-Dec-2014 30-Nov-2018 14-Jun-2019 31-Mar-2020 Status: Although 100 UNOPs stations have been installed, SOPs are not yet implemented. ITQ (full form for ITQ?) for Automatic Weather Stations (AWS) and Automatic Water Level Recording Systems (AWLS) issued, proposals expected before the end of July. Installation is expected to be delayed as the dry season period might be too short to finish all installations. Comments: Revised RF: PDO indicator moved to IRI. PDO indicator Hydro-met stations functioning per SOP(percentage) and IRI “Hydromet stations upgraded (percentage)” combined. Revised indicator name is “Hydromet stations upgraded (number, custom)”. IN00701890 ►Component 3: Navigation Improvements (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 10.00 20.00 90.00 Date 09-Dec-2014 30-Nov-2018 14-Jun-2019 31-Mar-2020 Status: Bank protection works for sub-project 1 completed and installation of porcupines well underway. Large buoys handling vessel and multi-purpose amphibious dredger to be delivered before the end of the FY, installation of buoys between Nyaung-Oo and Mandalay completed and functioning has been tested. Revised RF: Revised Indicator name: "Improved Navigation between Mandalay and Yangon to desired operating standard as identified by Navigation Design/Feasibility Study (percentage)". Revised Indicator Comments: Description: "Navigation improvements are defined as safe and effective (day/night) navigation, and is achieved through operational interventions (topo-hydrographic surveys and charting, dynamic management of aids to navigation, and river regulating works). Percentage length is defined as the proportion of actual length of day/night navigation related to the river length between Mandalay and Yangon." CERC - To provide immediate and effective response in the event of an Eligible Crisis or Emergency IN00705016 ►Goods procured and distributed as outlined in the CERIP (Yes/No, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value No -- Yes Yes Date 14-Jun-2016 -- 31-May-2019 30-Sep-2020 DMH has submitted a final report justifying the installation of 100 Automatic Weather Stations (AWS) by Comments: UNOPS financed through the IRM component. Overall Comments PDO The main changes to the RF are to better capture the evolution of the project, especially at the PDO level towards improved outcomes rather than outputs and to better align the RF with the revised project scope and activities. As such, one PDO level indicator has been shifted to an Intermediate Results (IR) level Indicator; PDO and IR level indicator descriptions have been revised; one IR will be canceled, and four new IRs introduced. Targets and target end dates have been revised based on updated and more accurate information gained since MTR. 6/24/2019 Page 4 of 8 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Ayeyarwady Integrated River Basin Management Project (P146482) . Intermediate Results Indicators by Components Component 1: Water Resource Management Institutions, Decision Support Systems & Capacity Building IN00701891 ►Component 1: Decision Support System (Yes/No, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value No No No Yes Date 09-Dec-2014 30-Nov-2018 14-Jun-2019 31-Mar-2020 Status: International consultancy contracted and mobilized; detailed design under review. Revised RF: Revised Indicator Description: "Functional decision support system fit for purpose for Comments: multi-sectoral basin planning including hydrologic, hydraulic, and water quality models coupled with GIS based user interface". IN00701895 ►Component 1: River Basin Master Plan - Phase 1 Report (Yes/No, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value No Yes Yes Yes Date 09-Dec-2014 16-Nov-2017 31-Dec-2017 31-Dec-2017 Status: State of the Basin (SOBA) report has been completed. Revised RF: Revised Indicator Description: The rapid assessment phase completed as the State of the Comments: Basin Assessment (SOBA) report IN00701898 ►Capacity building and gender (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 100.00 100.00 500.00 Date 09-Dec-2014 16-Nov-2017 16-Nov-2017 31-Mar-2020 An increase to 50% (to be reconfirmed) female participation (from 40%) will be assessed during level 2 restructuring, given current strong performance and additional focus on increasing women's participation Comments: by all components. IN00701900 Capacity building - percentage of participants female (Percentage, Custom Supplement) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 40.00 40.00 40.00 Component 2. Hydro-meteorological Observation and Information Systems Modernization IN00701892 ►Component 2: Hydromet Stations Upgraded (Percentage, Custom) 6/24/2019 Page 5 of 8 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Ayeyarwady Integrated River Basin Management Project (P146482) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 48.00 48.00 100.00 Date 09-Dec-2014 30-Nov-2018 31-May-2019 31-Mar-2020 Revised RF: PDO indicator Hydro-met stations functioning per SOP (percentage) and IRI “Hydromet stations upgraded (percentage)” combined. Revised indicator name is “ Hydromet stations upgraded Comments: (number, custom)” IN00701896 ►Component 2: Hydromet System Design (Yes/No, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value No Yes Yes Yes Date 09-Dec-2014 05-Apr-2018 14-Jun-2019 31-Dec-2017 Status: Draft design presented in January 2018 and finalized by April 2018. Comments: Revised RF: targets revised. IN00701899 ►Component 2: Hydromet System Financial Sustainability (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 90.00 Date 09-Dec-2014 30-Nov-2018 14-Jun-2019 31-Mar-2020 Status: no progress. C2 will prepare a business plan before the end of 2019 to be presented to the MoTC outlining the financial support required to sustain the investments made under this project. Comments: Revised RF: Indicator canceled. Component 3. Navigation Enhancement on the Ayeyarwady River IN00701893 ►Component 3: Navigation Detailed Design (Yes/No, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value No No No Yes Date 09-Dec-2014 30-Nov-2018 14-Jun-2019 31-Dec-2017 Consultants for Engineering Design and ESIA and ESMP for River Enhancement works in Stretch 1 have been contracted. Comments: Revised RF: indicator canceled because of overlap with PDO level indicator. IN00701897 ►Component 3: River works construction (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 50.00 70.00 100.00 Date 09-Dec-2014 30-Nov-2018 14-Jun-2019 31-Mar-2020 Status: River bank protection works under Sub-project 1 have been successfully completed. Production & Comments: installation of porcupines is progressing well. 6/24/2019 Page 6 of 8 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Ayeyarwady Integrated River Basin Management Project (P146482) Revised RF: Revised Indicator Description: "Channel stabilization Works for Sub-project 1 completed (percentage)" Component 4. Contingent Emergency Response IN00701894 ►Goods procured and distributed as outlined in the CERIP (Yes/No, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value No Yes Yes Yes Date 14-Jun-2016 16-Nov-2017 16-Nov-2017 14-Jun-2017 Data on Financial Performance Disbursements (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Currency Original Revised Cancelled Disbursed Undisbursed % Disbursed P146482 IDA-55590 Effective USD 100.00 100.00 0.00 27.42 66.26 29% Key Dates (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Approval Date Signing Date Effectiveness Date Orig. Closing Date Rev. Closing Date P146482 IDA-55590 Effective 09-Dec-2014 03-Apr-2015 10-Jun-2015 30-Sep-2020 30-Sep-2020 Cumulative Disbursements 6/24/2019 Page 7 of 8 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Ayeyarwady Integrated River Basin Management Project (P146482) Restructuring History Level 1 Approved on 19-Jun-2016 Related Project(s) There are no related projects. 6/24/2019 Page 8 of 8