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ISBN 5-7777-0109-04 © - « , 2005 11 14 1. : 17 21 ? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 ? 29 32 . 48 2. . . . . . . 53 54 : ? 55 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60 - .... 64 : 71 , . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77 . 82 6 3. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..91 ? 92 ? 105 110 114 130 4. 139 141 - 146 155 160 5. 167 "-» «-» 169 185 6. 197 200 207 : , 233 244 7. 247 - 250 - : , 260 263 268 7 8. 275 276 278 - ? 289 322 9.· » 341 . , 348 351 1.1 : ? .. . . . 18 1.2 : . . 25 1.3 : 27 2.1 ( ): 75 3.1 112 3.2 , 120 3.3 126 3.4 : « » 137 4.1 .. 149 4.2 : 150 4.3 ? 153 5.1 , 189 5.2 : 194 6.1 « » «» 201 6.2 : 205 6.3 ? 212 8 6.4 XIX . . 221 6.5 : « » , « » 223 6.6 229 7.1 : 248 7.2 251 7.3 261 7.4 266 7.5 269 8.1 289 8.2 ? 290 8.3 297 8.4 - ? 305 8.5 312 8.6 316 1.1 , , (1948 - 2002 .) 20 2.1 - . . . . . 55 2.2 ( ) . 61 2.3 ( ). 62 2.4 . 63 2.5 . 63 9 2.6 , 1980-1996 68 2.7 , 1980-1996 70 2.1 83 2.2 - 86 3.1 107 3.2 «» 108 4.1 . , 1985-1996 164 5.1 : 1947-1981 173 8.1 , 323 , 1990-1996 285 8.2 , 1356 , 1991-1996 . .. . 287 8.3 , 99 , 1990-1996 287 8.4 ~ » : 304 2.1 - 80 2.2 . . . .. 81 2.1 88 3.1 96 3.2 : 131 4.1 . , 1991-1998 164 6.1 214 10 8.1 278 8.2 - . .. . . 284 8.3 285 8.4 « » : , 308 : - . , , . 1 . . · «» . ( ), , , . · , , , . · , - « --» , , , . . -, , . -, , . , , , , . () ( 2), 12 ( 3), ( 4), ( 5); ( 6); ( 7), ( 8). , - , , , 9 , . « » - . , ( 9). , 1996 . <' » (2000), . - , , - . , <, op o o e »; , . 100 , . : http://www.worlclbank.org/ /, : , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , - , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , . . , , , , , , , , , , , , , , . , 6. , , 13 , . . - , , , -, . , , , . , ( ) - - . -3 , «» (, ) ( - ) () 15 () - ( ) () - () 16 ( ) ( -) () ( ) () . ( ) . . 1 : - . , , . , - (), . , - - , . , , . , . (), 1.1. . . . 1.1 1990- . , () (/)1 . 194 , 1999 . , 87 1990 . 10 . . 18 11 1.1. : ? <1 , , « »? « » , « » - - . , « » , 28 1996 . . » ( ), - , , , , , , . , , , , . « » . , , . , , , . , . . , , , , , ; . 1. «» , . , 1960 -1970- . , , -'. ( ), , , . : 19 2. , , . , , , . , , . « » ; . . «--», . , (), 1994 ., - () . «->.>, , , . , ( , ) , (). . . . , . , , , , «-» , . - . -, - 20 , . -, , , , . . 25 20 ':::1 :::1 ::!" §1 :::1 i3- :::1 15 : ~ '" : """":::1 10 ~ ~ 5 ~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~ ~~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~~ ~~ ~~ ~ ~ ~~~ ~ *~~~ * ~ ~ ~ ~ · . 1.1. , (1948 - 2002 .) . 2000-2002. . . . - , . , - , : 21 . , , . . , , , , . . , 1664 , III XIX ., . . (. . 1930- . . , , . « » , - , , , , , 1930- ., () . , , , - () . , , . 22 1947 . , 1951 . - (), 1957 .( ) - (). 1960- . . , , - , , - , . , , , . . , - , . 1970- , . , , . 1980- . . , , . , . : , , ; ; 1995 . , . 87 , 1990., 13 . - , . - , 1988 ., 1994 . : 23 ; 1991 . (), 1995 . - « » (-3) , 1991 1993 ,, , (). 1992 . - () 25 (), (). , . , , . . () (), (). () (), , . (). . ? . (. 1.2 1.3). ; , . , , : · , , . · . · , , . 24 · , . · , , . · , , . · , ; , , , « , ? » : · , , . · . · , , , . · - . ( ) , - , . - , - , . , , , , - : 25 1.2 : " , ». , , . , 7 1998 . " , , », , 10-11 1995 . " . ( ) - , » . , , « » ,25 1997 . " - , ... , . , , , « », 6 1998 . " , » . . , , , 4 1994 . " - - , , » . , , « --- . 28 1998 . 26 1.2. ~ , . , » , , , , 1997 . « ..., . !> . , - , , « », 17 2000 . ~ , ; , - !>. , 30 1997 . ~OHa [ ] » . , , «--, 28 1998 . « , , ». , , , 1 1997 . : 27 1.3 : « » . , 1992 . « , . » . [-3 (, ), 1994 . « » . , 1991 . « » [ -3, 1994 . « , , , » . , 1998 . « , » . , 1992 . « , , - » . (), 1969 . « , , , » . , 1992 . 28 13. " , , » . , - , 1995 . " - , , , » . , 1967 . " , » . -3, 1994 . " ». , 1992 . " ... [ ] » . - , 1996 . , . « » , , . , , , . , , . : 29 ? , . . 1. . , , , , . , , , . , , . 2. , . , , , ( ). . . , , , . : · ; · ; · ; · «» () ; · - ; 30 · ; · ; · . 4. , , . , , , , , , . - , . , , , , . , , , , . , , . , (, , ), . , -, - , - . , , , . , , - . , () , . , . , . : 31 , , , . , . , , , , , . , (, ), . . , , », 2000 . , , - , . - . · . · , , . · , , . , . · , 50 . , 2000 . , . . , , . , . 32 - , . , , , . , , . 9 « » . ; , . ; - . , , 9. 2 , . . , , -. . «» ( - ) «» ( , . , )? , «» , . , , , -, , . - -, , - · .: . . 2 . - . : , 2005. . 1. . 371-376. - . . : (- , «» ), . , . (trade creation) (trade divertion) , . - , , , .. - , anti-monde. . , , , , - , . , . , , , . , . . -, ( ) ( ). . , , , - . , - , ( ) , . , , , 34 , , . , , , , . , , (. 6)., , , , , , . , . 3 , ? 3 , , . , , . , , . , , , . ( ) . ,, , , , . , . «» . , « --» «-- . , : 35 , , , . , , - «--», «-», . , , . , . : «- 10» , . «- » . . , - , . . , ; , , - , . , «-», , . - , , , «». . , , , , , , . , , . , , -. - 36 , , () , - . , . , . . , , , . , - , , . ; , , . , , , , . , , . . , , . . , , , : , - , . 1.2 1.3, . : , : 37 . , (). 4 , . , . - , , . () , . , , , , . . , , , . , «--- ; , , . , «--» , , « », . , , , , : , , . , . , ( ) - . , , 38 , . , . , ; , . , , , , . , , , , . , , . - , , , . , , . , ? 5 - () () . - - . . , , , . , , , - : 39 . , - , , , . , , ; , - . , , , . , «-» , , , , . , , , , 10 , . , , - , . , , , ; . «-- <1-» . , , , , , . (Krugman and Venables 1990), . ; . , , . 40 11 , , , . , . . - (, , ). - . , , -. ; , - . , ( «- ») , «-» . - . , , 6. . , , 11 , , . - 11 , 11 , , . . - . : 41 , , . , , , , «» . - ( , « » ), . , , , - , , (), - , , . , . , , , . , , ; - - , . , , , , . , . , - . , , ; , , . , , , , , 42 . , , , , . . . , - , , « », - , , . . , , . . , , ( ), . , . , () , , , , , . , . , , , . ; . , , . . : 43 , , , . , , , , : Schiff and Winters (2002). , , , , . , , . , - , . 7 , , . , , , , . , , , , , . , , - . , . , , , , . , ( ) , . 44 , « », . , ( ), , , , , , , - . , . , , , , , , . , , . - . , , ; , . - - , , . , , 8 , , -, . -, , , , , . , , , ( ) , , , , : 45 . , , , - ; ( ) , , , , . , , - . : , , ; . , , , . , , . , , , -, , : - - ? , , , , . . , . , , , - . , , , , , . , , . , , . , , , . , ; -, 1980 -1990- . - 46 , . , , , . , , , . , -, : , , . : , , , , . , , ( ), . « » , , - (, ) , « » « . , , . , . , , . , , , , , . ,, - , . 8 . , , , , , . , , . - : 47 . ; , -, . , , . '!: » 9 , . , - . , , , . « » , , . . · . , , ; , . · «Ceaep-lz» «[-». . , , , , . · . , , , , , . · . , , . 48 · . , , . , . · . , , , . · , . , . · , . , . , - . 3 ( , , . .) /. XXIV , . « » , 1979 ., - « , ». / , , . : 49 (), , XXIV; - (), ( ). 1957, , , , , , ; 1973, , , ; 1981, ; 1986, , ; 1995, , , ; 2004, , , , , , , , , , ". (), , XXIV. 1994, , , , . - , XXIV. : : 1995, ; 1996, ; 2002, ; : 1997, ; 2001, ; 2002, ; : 1995, ; 1995, ; 1997, ". , , XXIV. 1994, , ; 1995, , , , , , . , . - (), , ; . 1989, , , , , , , , , , , , ; 1991, (), , (); 1993, , ; 1994, ; 1998, , , . (), , XXIV; - 1989 . (), XXIV. 1994, , , . , , . 1969 ( 1991 .) , , , , , . · . . - . . 50 (-3) , , . 1995, , , . () , , XXIV. 1973, , , , , , ; 1974, , , , , - , - ; 1983, ( , ); 1995, ; 2002, . ( ) , ; - (), XXIV,1960. , 1980, , , , , , , , , , , . (), , XXIV. 1960 ( 1993 .), , , , ; 1962, - . ( ) / Mercado Comun del Sur (), , . 1991, , , , . () , - , ; - , 1967, 1977. 1996. , , . / nomique et ouest-africaine (), ; (), 1973. 1994, , - , -', , , , ; 1997, - . () , ; . 1982, , , , . () , , . 1993, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , . : 51 () , , (), , ; . 1992, , , , , , , , , , , , , , . / economique et d'Afrique Centrale (), , , 1999, - / Union douaniere et economique de l'Afrique Centrale (); 1996, , , , , ; 1989, . () , , . 1975, , -, , , , - , - , -', , , , , , , - , . / munaute economique des pays des grands lacs (), ; . 1976,, , . (), . 1910, , , , , - . (), , ; () . 1980,, , , , , , , , ; 1990, ; 1994, - ; 1995, ; 1998, , . (, COMECON). ( 1949 1991 . - . .) 1949, , , , , , ; 1949, ; 1950, ; 1962, ; 1972, ; 1978, . 1 950- 1961 . . 1964 . . 52 (). 1993, , , , ; 1996, ; 1997, ; 1999, ; 2002,; 2004, , , , . . , - , XXIV. 1964, . - (), 1967. 1977, , ; 1992, (), , , , , , ; 1994, ; 1995, ; 1997,, ; 1999, . (), (), , . 1995, , , , , , , -, (), - , . 1981, , , , , , . 1 () (), 1994. 2 « . ( 1973 .), (1975), (1976) (1967) . (1960) , (1960), (1969) (1973) . ; . 3 « -- » , . 2 , , . , - . . ( ) , , , , , . . , , , ( - ) ( - , )! . , , , . - , . , 54 , . , . . , . , , , . . , . . . 2.1 « ( ) « ( 6 ), , . , . [, . . , , , . , , -, . 55 ~ !~ U==: tlLIJlcL.,---,-l =I---..lLcaJ ~~~~, , ::; G ,= :::: ,= ~ ::.:: 5:~ i.i _ ::; ;;2 :::: :s: 9 ;5 ~ 5!< ::.:: 5!< , ~ t:;1 u , :: 6 ,= = ,= ~ ::.:: ;:,,:: i:5 , ., ~!;; :: ~ =::::: ~ ::.:: ~!;; , ~ ~~ ~ <~ ~ ~- -' ~ ~ U ~ . 2.2. ( ). . «» 1991-, « - 1996. ; 1 - 1968 19741'1'.; 11 - 1990 19961'1'.; 11- 1990 1996 r. ; --1972111978 1'1'.; -1965 19711'1'.; 1965 19711'1'.; - 1991 1996 .; [ -1980 1986'. . 2.1. : . -, . , , . , -'. , - , , . , . , , 62 , - . . 2. 1 , - , . 100 80 ~ 60 40 · 20 uo..=---'-'--.....L-L..-.....................-........--........L.-.I.--- >. ~ , r..t< ~ . 2.3. ( ). . «o~ 199 1 -, « - 1996 .; 1- 1968 1974 .; 11 - 1990 1996 .; 11 - 1990 1996 . ; - 1972 1978 .; - 1965 1971 IT.; - 1965 1971 I.; - 1991 1996 .; [ - 1980 111986 . . . 2.1. : , , , . ( ) , , , . . 2.4 - 120 % , - , [ - 11, . , , . 63 100 10 1 0,1L.L..__....L..I_..L...88._L..8L.-JL..8L.-.L__.---.L..-...-L...-........L..,j__ , ;>, :::: '~ ::: ,= ~ ::<: ::<: "' - :::: ::::::::: ~ !;< - - ::<: <~;2, 12!;< - ~ f-o U :::: <~ ;2 ~ Q ~ ~ . 2.4. . . « » 1991 - , « - 1996 .; 1- 1968 11 1974 1'1'.; II - 1990 11 19961'1'.; II - 1990 19961'1'.; - 1972 1978 '. ; - 1965 1971 .; - 196511 1971 1'1'.; - 1991 19961'1'.; [ - 1980 1986 1'1'. . . 2.1. : . -., ;:,,'=' : "'-~~ ~ ::! 0,1 .,'". '"'" .,'" '=' ., ; 0,01 !§ ~ , ~]- ;>, :::: "'- ,= :::: ,= ::<: ::! ~ ::<: ::<: :::: =- < s- '.) - ::::: lJ.1 ~ , ~!;< ::<: "' -!< , ~ ~ u t.I.1 t:1: - lJ.1 - :::: -< U -<= ::<: - = '" ::<: u Q ~ '-' . 2.5. . . «o~ 1991-, «» - 1996 ; 1- 1968 1974 .; II - 1990 1996 .; II - 1990 1996 .; - 1972 1978 .; -1965 1971 1'1'.; -1965 1971 1'1'.; - 1991 1 996 I. ; [ - 1980 19861'1'. . . 2.1. : 64 (. 2.5) 30%. , , , . . - , , , anti- monde « < ») , . , , , - , ". , anti - monde. , - . , , - . , ( ), ( , ), ( , ) , , , . , , , , 65 , , . . , , , ., « » . , , , . . , , - , . . , , , , . (Aitken 1973) () . , 1951 . ( ), , , . , , 1961 1964 . , . 1967 ., (Aitken 1973), 80% , . 50%. (Bayoumi Eichengreen 1997) 1952-1992 . , , , . , , (Aitken and Obutelewicz 1976) , 1959-1971 . 18 , . , (Frankel, Stein Wei 1977) 66 (, , , , , , ) 1970-1992 . , (. , , , [ ::: '""" § 52,5- -:.~- ::: Ilo,: : =:~: § 5 ~ 3 2- - - -- - - -- u 2 - ~ - - ~ - - '" :1 =,::: 1- - -- - -- - - - ~ ,; - -=-=---..:..; § § o - ~ - - = =- 2 - - - - - - - - - - ~ ~ ~ = '" - ======_=-= ~~-1 - ~ - - 1;::0 :;: =. - ..........-... 4 -........-- - - - - - - 1j ~ -1 1980-821986-881995-96 1j ~ 1980-821986-881995-96 ~ ~ 1980-821986-881995-96 8~ 8.:: 0.::: ,-,'" *. '-'''' *. *. ~ :; ~ ~ ~Io,~ : ~: : : : : ~ ~~ - - : ~ :: -...:::-:----::.- 4 ~ ~ ---~- 3 0,4-~~- ~ ,; 2 = - ~:: Q 8 2 2 ------ - ;;; __ __ _ __ __ _ =. (;= ~ §-0,4 - - - - - - ~- - ~o :r _.f_ - - &- - ~ -1 3 =-06 ---- ---- 1j;;; 1 98 0 - 82 1 98 6 - 88 1 99 5 - 9 6 ~. t ' 1980-821986-881995-96 8.. ~ 1980-821986-881995-96 .... '-' ~ - ,-,'" *8.. t...- :.> 5 "" '" ~ :;s ~ '":.> "" '" / ~ 3 ::: 2 5 § i5 ;; '§ ----..:;r-- -- 2 ~ ~~ -~-------- ~ :1 --_-----..:::-:-- 2,5<:3 ·· ~ -~. ::: ~ '" :1 ::: 8~ 11 ========== 1I ====~ -: 2 2 -~-- o ; ::: .... - ~ 1j", : - ~--2 :::2 :r :=, --~---1 - u - * . -~~- -18.. ~1980-821986-881995-96 * 8u ~'" 1980-82 1986-88 1995-96 1980-821986-881995-96 ~ *. · · · . 2.7. , 1980-1996 . - - ; [ - ; - ; /, / ; - ; - ; - ; - . . , {I()-1]*100}% . : Soloaga and Wintcrs (200 1). 71 - « » , . - , , (Yeats 1998) , - , , - . - , , , . , , , , , , . , - , , . «» . , , , . , , . , , - , . , , ( ) - , , . . : , , . , , . 72 «» (. . ) . . , , . ( , ). ; . , , . , , ( , ). , , . , , . 1960- ., (Verdoorn 1960; Balassa 1974) , , . , . , , , -, ; , . -. , , , . ( . .) , - 73 , . - , . , , , . , . . , . , , - , , . - , , . , , () , . , , , , , , , , , , , , , . , , II , , , , . , - , -, , , , - . (computabIe gl equilibrum models) - . () , - 74 , , , , . , . , , , , . '' . , , , , . , , . , , - ( 4). , , (Francois and Shiells 1994; is, Rutherford, and 1996). . , , 2-3% , - 5% . , , . , - . : , . ; ; , , ; - 75 , , , , . , . , . , , , 2.1. 2.1 (): , « ... , ... [ ] (Robinson and Thierfelder 1999). : , , , . , , . () - , . , , . , , . . , , , , , ( ) . , ; , , . . 1 : , , . , , , , - 76 2.1 , . . , . , - . , , , . , . , ; . - , , . - . , , , : Flores (1997) Harrison, Rutherford (1996,1997,2002). , . · , « ». , , . · - , . , . , ( - ) . , , . , , , , (Hinojosa-Ojeda, Le\visand Robinson, 1995). · , . , , , , . · , . 77 , , , - , . , . , , . , , . , , - . , . , . , . , , , . (Rodrik 1988), ( ) 50-100% , . , , . , , , , , ', , . , , . -, , : , -, - , . - 78 : , , . , , . , : , - , « , . . , , ( ) , , , . , . «1> , , , «1>, , ' , . , . - , . , - , . , ( - ) (, Lang, and Lundgren 1995). , , , (Dickens and Katz 1987). , . , - (Roberts and Tybout 1996)12. , , , 1 . (Tybout 2000), 79 , . , . . , () 5% , , , (Catinat and Italianer 1988; Emerson 1988)14. , « (Winters 1992). , , , 11 . ( 1996) 1994 . 1-1,25% 16. , , , . Uacquemin and Sapir 1991) , , , . , , , . . , . , , , , 6, . ( ) , . , 11 (Hunter, Markusen and Rutherford 1992) . , . (Flores 1997), - 80 11 , , , 1,8%, 1,1% 112,3% , , , . (Flores 1997) . . 2.1, , . , , , . 2.1 - (% ) - - - - - - - n u- - - n- 45,2 71,2 -9,2 -3,1 -5,0 0,9 100 28,5 82,2 -1,2 -0,4 -9,4 0,3 100 - 48,5 69,5 0,0 -11,3 -7,2 0,5 100 - 50,5 78,1 -2,3 - 8,8 -18,0 0,5 100 37,S 73,2 - 1,0 -4,4 - 6,8 1,5 100 : Florcs (1997). (D issou 2002) , () - , (. . 2.2). (0,57% ), , , (20,18%), . (0,15%) , - 81 , . ( ), , , , 0,49%. , , I , - , . (1,26%) (0,57% ) , , . u 2.2 (% ) (4) (2) (5) (1) (3) 0,57 - 0,18 0,15 0,49 1,26 . - ; - . , , 0,57% . : Dissou (2002). , , , , , . , , . , - , .. . , , , , - 82 , , , . - (Willmore 1974, 1976) - , , « '> . , . - . - , , (, , , ) , . (). , , . : , . , , (, ), , . . 6 , . , . , . . 2.1 (Viner 1950). . : De Rosa (1998); Robson (1998). 83 + + Q1Q2 Q (4 Q5 (4; 2. l . . , . , , . , . , : , , . , . ~ - Q1 - ( ), Q1 - , . , . ( ) + . . , , ~ {; Q1 Q, { -Q. - . , - 84 + + + D + + F + G + 1 + +j. , ( + ) , , ( + - , ). , + F + G D + 1+j. - , : ( ) , . , , , , . , : , . , , , + . ~ Q5; , + + + D; , , + . + D -, , . , . - Q - Q2 , . Q5 - ~ , ; , D. , . , ~ - Q, ; , , , , . , ; , , , , . . 2 .l , 2. , ; 85 , , , , . ( ), , . , , , - (, , ) , . , : , - . , , () -, , , . , , , , . , , , , , . , , , - . , , , . + . ( , , - , ). , , , , . , % , % : , , . .2 .2 . 86 , (. . )!". (. . ). . ( ) , , , . ( ) , . , , . , , , ( , ). , , , - - . + , , , . , . , , ( + ) . ( ) . , , , , ' 2.2. - 87 - . , , , + ., '. , , + + , . . : , , ( ). : ] , , - . : ? , , . , ( ) , , ' , . , - . , + , + + . , , . , , . , , , , , . , -. . 2.l. 88 2. 1 (%) - - - - - - - 1990 14,5 85,5 10,52 0,87 0,57 3,34 3,91 0,41 0,03 1996 20,2 79,8 14,12 0,81 1,64 6,48 8,10 1,15 0,07 1 1968 4,3 95,7 2,90 0,97 0,54 12,15 12,69 0,37 0,12 1974 7,2 92,8 6, 16 0,94 1,01 13,14 14,15 0,87 0, 13 11 1990 9,1 90,9 81,19 0,91 2,63 26,22 28,85 23,42 0,26 1996 12,6 87,4 64,33 0,88 3,78 26,29 30,07 19,34 0,26 11 1990 6,8 93,2 6,84 0,94 0,86 11,77 12,63 0,86 0,12 1996 13,6 86,4 15,55 0,87 2,01 12,80 14,81 2,30 0, 13 1972 5,0 95,0 13,59 0,95 2,76 52,05 54,81 7,45 0,52 1978 3,8 96,2 7,66 0,97 3,10 78,01 81,11 6,21 0,78 1965 3,3 96,7 11,68 0,97 0,48 14,39 14,87 1,74 0,14 1971 4,5 95,5 20,78 0,96 0,91 19,28 20,19 4,20 0,19 1965 1,4 98,6 8,92 0,99 0,24 17,59 17,83 1,59 0,18 1971 4,0 96,0 30,09 0,96 0,79 18,82 19,61 5,90 0,19 1991 15,9 84,1 3,80 0,88 7,73 40,99 48,72 1,85 0,43 1996 17,7 82,3 2,82 0,88 9,34 43,40 52,74 1,49 0,46 [ 1980 6,6 93,4 0,81 1,02 1,47 20,96 22,43 0,18 0,23 1986 5,2 94,8 2,15 0,97 1,50 27,71 29,21 0,63 0,28 . .. « - . - 1. 1969 ., « 11 . - (1991); 11 - : - ; - ; - 11 ; - ; [ - . : . 89 1 , , (.: Viner 1950). 2 , , « . ( ) . : Anderson and Noheim (1993). 4 , . . 3, . 5 , ( ) , (Frankel, Stein and Wei 1997), 1970, 1980, 1990 1992 . , , . . 1970- 1992 . , , . (Frankel and Rose 2000) . , 70- 100% , . 6 , . , , . . . () , , ( . ). , , , , , , , . 90 7 ; , , (1.86) (0,55) . 8 . 2.1 2.2 , ( ), , ( ), . , , , . . 9 Baldwin and Venables (1995), . 10 (Tybout 2000) - , , , , , . 11 (Djankov and Hoekman 1997) . 12 . .: Levinsohn (1993) ; Harrison (1994); (1996) ; Krishna and Mitra (1998). 13 .: Nishemizu and Page (1982) ;Tybout, de Melo, and (1991); Haddad and Harrison (1993); Tybout and Westbook (1995); Harrison (1996). 14 - (Boldwin 1989; McKibbin 1994). 4. 15 Smith and Venables (1988) . 16 - , , 1994 ., , , , . 17 , . . . 3 , 2, , - , - . ( , ) , . , , , , . , - , , . , , 2, , . ? , : , . , , . , , . , 92 , , , - - , , , . , , . , , -, , , , . , , , , . . ? , , , , , , , ( and Wan 1976; Panagariya and Krishna 2002). , , ( ) ( ) . ( , ), ' . -, , , , , , . , . 93 ? , , : , /, () , , . 8, , . , , , (Chang and Winters 2002) , , , . , , , , , . . , -. , . , , , , , . , , 2. . , , , , , . , . , , , (Bagurll and Staiger 1999). , , - . , , , , - 94 . . , , - . , - . , , , ( and Massell 1965). , 1960-1970- ., . , , -, . , , . , . , , (, ). , , 4 5. : - » (Viner 1950) , . : 95 . (Panagariya 1997) , . , , , , , , . , - . , . , 1990- . " « », . . , , (Wonnacott and Luts 1989; Summers 1991). , , , , , . . 3.1 - . , . , «- ( - 38,6%, - 30,2%) «- ( - 42,1%) , «- . - (16,7%), : (12,9%), (12,8%) (10,3%) . : 1% - , (, ); 1%- 4,2% - . , , , , , . , , , - , . , , , , . « » 8. 96 u.1 (%) , Wlu 06- 2,3 - (1994) 41,5 (1969) 16,7 - (1994) 60,0 (1996) 12,8 - - (1962) 2,5 ( 1962) 38,6 - (1995) 21,7 [-3 (1995) 3,3 - (1995) 23,0 [ (1981) 4,2 - (1996) 74,4 (1967) 1,0 - (1994) 61,3 (1989) 30,2 - (1994) 49,4 (1991) 12,9 - (1995) 41,8 (1994) 42,1 - (1995) 26,4 (1973) 0,9 - (1995) 53,7 (1985) 3,2 - (1995) 56,8 (1980) 0,1 - (1993) 10,3 (1995) 46,7 (1966) 0,9 - (1995) 16,7 . - - ; -3 - (, ) : - ; - : - ; - ; - ; - - - ; - ; - ; - ( - ); - ; - ; -lO ; - ( ) . 1957 ., , , 1962 . : . , « » . , , , : . , , , . 97 , , , . , , , . : (Wonnacott and Wonnacott 1981). , , , . (Amjadi and Winters 1999) , , , - , , . , , ( ), . , (Schiff 2001) , , , , , . , , . , « » : ( ) ( ) . , , . , , , , . , , , . . 98 , , . (Krishna forthcoming ) , , , . , . , . : (Venables 2000, 2002). . , - . S. , , , . - . - , . , : , , . : , . , , , . ( ), - 99 , , , , . . , , , . , , , , , . , : , , . , , , . : , , , , « » . «» « « » «» , . « ; « » , . ( - - , , , ), ( , ) . : , . , «-» , ? , , (Venables 2002: figues 4-6). () , , ( ),, , , 100 , ). , . - ( ) - (Heckscher- Ohlin), - (« » ). , ( [Armington] ), . - « -, , , . , , , , 2 . , - , . - . , . . , , , , , , . , . , ; , , . , , , . , , - 101 . , ( ), . , , « . : , , , , - . , , - (Krishna forthcoming ). , , « - , «» . 2, . , ( « ). ( ), ( IOAP, ) , , , . , ; , , -, . : , , , . 102 , , , , . , , , . , , (, , ). : , 1993 . , 4858 , - - 124 (Amjadi and Winters 1999). «» 0,5% . , . . , 95% -, 155, 2,2% . , , . , , : . , , , . , , , . . , - 1957 . 1990- ., - « » . - , . ( , - 103 . , .) , , , , : , , . , . , , . (Robson 1998), ( 1980 . - 25%) - , . «-» ~-~? «-!> , , . , , . , , - . - « -- , , . , ; , . , , , «-- , . . 2.1 - 104 , , , ( ) . , . -, ? , , . , , 5%, , , . 1977 . (Roemer 1977) - , , . 5%- . -, , . , , , 2, , , . . , ? - , - , . , , : ( ), « ; ( , ), - ; . , , . , , , - , , - - , - 105 , . 2, , - . , . 1991 ., , 70% , 614 4854 . 1996 . 78%, , , , , 296. , , , , , , . , , , , , , . , , , , . ",-» , , - , , . , , , , , . . 3? , . . , - 106 , , « » ("spaghetti-bowl regionalism"). . , , , , , ( ), . . , 12 ( , , , , , , , , ) . ; - ( ); , - ; , - . : , - , - , , , - . . 3.1, . , , , (Winters 2000). () « » (. 3.2)., , , , . , . ; . 1,48% . 0,87%, , '[. « » , 108 % 9 8 7 t::: 6 ~ ~ 5 i:: D '-' 4 §- 3 ~ · 2 1 + ++ +++ . 3.2. -» . - ; - ; - ; - . : is, Rutherford, and (2002). , . , , , , « » ( , « ). , « , , , , 11% - , , «» , . , . , - . , . , , . , , . , , - 3 109 , , , , - , . . , 4 , , . - «-. ( ) , , - , , , -. «» , , . , , , . . , , , ( ), « » ( ), . , . 3.1, - , - . , , . , . , , . ( ). , , . . 3.1, , . . , , 11 , , ' , , , - : . 1998., 162, /, 143 , , 19 - , ' . , , , . : - , . . - . , , . . , , , , - , -. . , , , -, , -. , , , . , - 111 , . , , . , (Cordoba 1996), , . , , , , 100% (WTO 1995). , 62,5%, , , , . , , , . 1994 . , , - (Stephenson 1996). (. 3.1). «» - , . , . , , . , . , , , ". , , , 81 , 112 3.1 , , . , , , , - ; . 1992. , , . ( ) 80% , . , , , 5%, 75%. : Palmeter (1993). , 200 (Krueger 1997). , , , . (Herin 1986), 3-5% - () - . - - , - . , . , , , . : , , 113 . , ( ) . , . , , , . , , , , (Robson 1998). , , . , - , , - - , -. , , . (Hamilton 1988). , , . , , 114 , . ; , 30 , , , , , (Winters 1993). , . , , , - , - . , , . , . , . - , , : , , , , . . , , -. , . . - 115 . , , . , , , , . , . ( ) , . , - , - , . , , , . , . , , , , . , , . , . , , (, ), , , , , , (Rutherford, Rutstrom, d 2000). - . . , . , 116 : - ? ( 8), , . , , . 1994 ., 15 , , , , ( , ). 12,8% , : - 11,1%, - 10,2% - 11,8% (Echavaria 1998). 1500 , , , , 503 . 1957 . 13% 3% 2000 . ( )., . : - ? , . - . . -, , , . -, . , , . - (Richardson 1995). -, , , -, , . , , 1995 ., , 1500 . 117 , . -, , , , . -, - . , . , : , . «» « » , , , , . - . . , , , . 8, , . , - . , , , - . , , . , . - 118 ( ), , , ( . 8). , , ; . (Olarreaga and Soloaga 1998). , , , . , , , . (. . ), , . - , , , . , , , (Gatsios and 1991, 1995). , , , ( ), , - - . , , - ( - ) , . , ( ) . , , , - 119 , . , , . , , , . - , , . , . , - /. : - , . . , , , , . , , (Messerlin 1983) , , (Scharpf 1988). , , - , , , - , «» , , , . , , , - , - 120 , (Winters 1997). , , . , ( ) , , , . ( ), (. 3.2). . , , , , , . , , . , , , , -, - (Winters 1993). 3.2 , . , . , , . , , , ? , , , -, , . , ,, -, ,- , 121 3.2 . , , , , , , . , , , , « - .... , - . - , , , (, , . .), , , . (Shepsle and Weingast 1981). , , , , : « , , . - , , , . , , , , . (Winters 1994) , , , . 1929 . - , «... (Schatts chneider 1935). 1992 . , , , , ( ) ( ) , 1995 . 92 94 . , , , , , (Bila1 1998). 122 : - , , . , , . , , « » , « « ». , « » . « , [ , ] /'. , 1S ; , . , , , . 1998 . , S %- , 10 %- - 20%- - . , , , 20 %- . 1997 . , (Lecomte 1998:S). - , (Echavarria 1998). , . , - , . , , . , 123 . « » , , . , , «» (. . , , ); , , , . , , , , . : , -, , , - , . - --, . , , , . , , : -, - , . , , , , , . , , , . . - , , . , , . 124 , , 1996 . () . -, - , (Viner 1950; Grossman and Helpman 1995). , , . (Krishna 1998), , . : , , . , () . , , , . : , , , , (, ) . , , : , « » , «» ''. , , , . , , - , , . , , . , - 125 , , , . , , . , , . . 1990- ., , : . ( , ) . , , , . 3.3 . , , . , , . , . 1% , , (de Melo, Panagariya, and Rodrik 1993; Panagariya and Findlay 1996) (Richardson 1994). «1> . , « - 126 3.3 () (Olarreaga and Soloaga 1998). - 1994 . . , 75% 9119 . , , . 2006 ., . - . 2000 . 27 , , , , , , . : · , , . . , . , , , . · 58% . , , . , , . : , . · -, . , 127 . , 70% . Or - lllfllll zo u UIlU (%) (%) 1540 17 231 2,5 1605 18 17 0,2 2101 23 293 3,2 1961 22 407 4,4 . ; , , ( ) , . « . , , , , . , , , , . , , , (Winters 1993; Band yopadhyay d Wall 1999). , - , . ( ), ( ), . , , . , , , . , - 128 , . , . (Hathaway 1998) , 1970- ., , 216 . . 1960 . 58 . 1990 . , , . 1990 . « ... » , -. 1991 , ». -. .. -. .. , , . , , , , . , , , , ( ) , , , . , , «-», «-» . , , , , , . -, ( 4) (. 7). , , , . . () 170 11 ; (Solow 1956). , . , ( ), , . , , - , , - , . ( ) , - (Lucas 1988) (Romer 1986, 1990) - « . , , , . , , , . , , , , , . , , «Cebep-I!> - ( . «, « ). , . . , , 171 - « ». , , , , . , , , (Lucas 1988). : , . , ; . « , . , , , . (Olson 1996:7), , , , « » . (]! and ]ones 1999) , . , , , , . (Acemoglu, ]ohnson, and Robinson 2000; Engerman and Sokoloff 1997), . ? -, . -, , . , ( 6), ( 7). - 172 , , , . ( , , , .) , ( 7). . «», , , . - , , - . , ? ? ? , « - (Ben-David 1993) , . , , , . . 5.1, 1947 ., , 1981 . : 1951 . 1957 . , 1962., 1968. 2/ ' , , . , ? - ( ; . ) . - (Be n-David 1994) , 173 , , ( ), . , , ( « » ), (Ben-David 1998). , - , , - , , , . - (Ben-David 1996) , « » (), . , (Henrekson, Torstensson and Tortensson 1997) . , ( ) , , . (Karras 1997), , -, 0,34 1947: 1951: 1957: ------------ 1959: 1968: 1973: 9 - 0,10 1981: 10- 1945 1955 1965 1975 . 5.1. : 1947-1981 . - ; - . : Ben-David (1993) . 174 1960-1990 . : (5 ); (15 ) (7 ). ( ), - , , - . , -, ( , ) . , - . , «-- (), ----, ( ) . ( and Helpman 1995), , (, Help- , and Hoffmaister 1997), . , - (), . , - ( 1995 . - , 1997 . - ). , - , . , , , ( ), , . , , - , , - , , , , -, , , . , « . -, (Lumenga-Neso, Olarreaga, and Schiff2001) , ( and Helpman 1995) - 175 , , , « . , « , , , . , (, ), , « , , « , . , «» , , . , '. , . , (Schiff, Wang, and Olarreaga 2002) , « --» , « - . , , . , « - , <1 - »- . , «IOr- - « . , (Schiff and Wang 2002),, « . , , , ( , ) . . , , , , , « - 176 . « , « - », « 10- » . , , , « - » ,, . (Keller 2002) , - - . , , , . , , , . , , . (Schiff and Wang 2002), , , , , , . , (, Helpman and Hoffmeister 1997) , ( ), , . , . , , , , . : , , - - . 177 (, ), . , . , , , . . (Winters 1997) , . , - 4% , . , , 12,5%, 1%. , . 2,5% ( 8,5% 8,7%) . , « , , , , , -. , « , (Keller 2002). , . , , , , , . (Schiff and Wang 2002) , , , ( - ), - . , 0,36 0,04 178 - . , 5,5- 7,5%, 0,5% , - -'. , , , , . , , . , , . , , 1990 . , , , , , , , . , , , , . , , . , , , ( ) , - , . , , , , , , . , , , , . , , . - , (Lumenga-Neso, Olarreaga and Schiff 2001) , 0,70 , , « , 0,29. , 179 , , . . ~ - » : . , , « -». () , « ( ) . « , . , , , . , , , . , . . , , . , , , , . , , , . , «» , . « , , - . 180 - (Blomstrom and Kokko 1998) «» , : ) , , , ; ) , ; ) , . « , . , « . , 1985., , ( ), , . , -, . 206 6.2 , ( « » ). , , , . 1987 1995 . 28 « », . , , 12,5 1958-1985 . 20,8 1986-1997 .(Pe1kmans 1990,Neven 1996). , , . , . « », , , . , Torrent (2002), - . , , - , - , . ; , Underwriters Laboratories (UL) . - . , , , (). , . , , , . . , - 207 , , , , . , , , , , , , , (. 6.2). , (.: Messerlin 2001), . , , . , , , , « » . , . . , , . . , - - . : , , « (), . - . 208 , . . , -, -. : - , , -, . , , . . , 1990- . , ( , ) 1,2% , ( Commission 1997). , , . 1988 . ( EUR-1), - , . , , (Herin 1986), 3% , , . . . 60% , -. 45% ; 15% ; (Wilson 1996: 7). 75% 209 (u Commission 1996). - 100% , - . . Unter (1998) , 1990 1997 . , , «-», . , , . , , - . , , . . 1992 . , , . , « » , . , , , , , . , , . . , , , , , . 1998 . - 600 10 . - - 210 SGS, Inchape Vertitas . , , (Messerlin 1998). 1997 . , , ; , , , . , , , , . 40 . 1,4 .; , 5% - (Wilson 1999). , , , , . , , . , . , 1992 . , . 1995-1 996 . , , -, - , , , , , -' . . - - , , « , , » (Unter 1998). , , 211 ( , ) , , . «» . (<<») , , , . « , , , . , . , , , . , (. 2). - , . , . . , , , « 2% . ; 10% (WTO 1998). 1990- . ; «» 5% 90% , . , , , 4% ; : , , (Hoekman and 1999). 212 . 2, , , . ( ), , , , , , , . , , - , , - , - . , , - . ? , , , . , . ( - .) . 1989- 1992 . 56 50% (Voge\ 1995: 229). , . . 1981 . , . . , . 1988 . . , -, 213 63 300 (Cecchini 1988: 60, .: Voge! 1995: 84), , , , . , , . , , , , . , , , , , . - . , - - , . , , , , ; . , , () . , , - , . , , ; ( 214 6.3). , , , , (contingent protection). . , , " , , , , , . , . , (. . 6.1). , . 6.1 (%) ? 6,0 8,2 9,8 6,0 8,5 18,3 5,0 6,9 24,4 6,0 19,7 29,7 18,0 18,8 40,9 () / 2,6 5,3 / 2,1 10,3 13,0 6,8 9,6 - 10,0 5,0 17,7 30,0 13,1 61,6 ? 25,0 20,4 46,3 15,0 35,7 57,2 12,0 4,7 26,0 ? 13,0 20,4 46,3 215 .6.1 20,0 4,0 9,5 10,0 18,4 51,9 6,0 15,7 42,1 / 0,3 11,1 () / 20,4 46,3 II/ It - IICT Itallll bIX. . , 110 , III, , . () , I1 lI a . : / ~ ( / · (1/ &), - , - ) ! , / - 1< ( 110 II II 1< 111<011 ) , & - ( I< - 4). I I II II 110 , ( 1997 1998 .) 110 IIC , . 110 . IIC 1< . l e » . : Hockman (2000). , . ; . , , , , , - , ( ) . , , , , , . , . , - 216 . , , , « . , . , , , - . (, ) . , . , . , . , : - , . . , , . , ; , 1990- ., , 25% , . , , , 30% (Mohieldin 1997). , , 15%, 217 5% , , , , (Hoekman and 1999). . , , , . . , , - (Baos 1995)5. 1970-1980- . . 2/ , . (Danie! and leit 1995), 20-30% , , . , , , . , , . , . , - . (Hoekman and Djankov 1997). . , , , - 218 . ( American Act), '', , 15-20% . , , , . , , , . , , , . . (, ) . (Hoekman and Mavroidis 1997). , . , , (Evenett and Hoekman 1999). , , . . , , ( ) . , , , « », «» . - 219 - - . , . 1980- . , (indley and Messerlin 1993). , , - , - , . , , , , , , . , , . , . , , . ; . (Finger 1993). , , , , , . , /. , ., , , , 222 . , , , , , . , , « , , . , . « » , , (Bhagwati and Srinivasan 1996). - ; - , « . , , . 9. , « » -", (Holmes 1998) , , « » (. . , ), (. 6.5)11. , , - , « », , «» , . 1970 . (U.S. Clean Air Act), , . , . «» - 223 6.5 : « , - . (. Holmes 1998) , , « », 1/ 3 , , . , , , , , , - . .« . . ( , ) , 1958 .; 20 , . (Voge! 1995: 259) - , , . , - -. , . . , . , , , . 1950- . , « , , » (Milward 1992: 188). , , , 224 , . 1940- , , , 1 2. , , , , (Sapir 1995). , , , - , - , - , . : . , , , « » . , . , , , . , , -, , , , , , , . , « »; , , , , . 225 « » , . . , , , , . . , - , , , . , , . , , <1 ... ... "" .. [] [ ] » (Milward 1984: 421). . , , , , «» . , , , , - (, , ) . , 226 . ( ) , . . , , , , . , , . , ( ), , , . , , . , , ( , , , 1998). , . , . , , . , , , , . 227 , - . , «» . . , - , - . . , , , . . , (, , ) , ., , , , , , . , , . , . , < » . . , 228 , . , . , ? : , , , . , . , , , - . : . , , . , , , . , , , ; , , . , . , . , . , , , (-, - ), . , - , , - , , - 229 . , , , (., .:u, , and Wijnbergen 1995). 6.6 1860 1914 . 30 ( ). , (1863), (1864), (1883), (1897) (1910). . , , , , . , . , , , , . 100 . , , , , ( (Pollard 1974: 50-51). ; , . ( ), 1890 ., XIX. , , , , . ; , , ( ) , , () , ' , , 230 6.6 , . , , ( ), ( ) , ( ) , ( ). . , . , . . , ( ), - , , , . , (Muphy 1994: 104). . 1914. , , (1865) (1874) « » (1884) (1890) (1905) (1906) ( ) (1909) (1875) (1877) (1912) 231 6.6 (1883) (1886) ( ) (1890) (1893) (1913) (1899) (1907, ) : Murphy (1994); 48-49. , , . , ( . 6.6). , , , , ; , () , . , , . , , , . . . , , - 232 , , , 1 . - , , . . , , , , , . , , , , . , , (. 8). - - , . , <15>, , . , «», . - , '" . : , , , . , , (, , ), . -, , , . 233 - - . , . , , . - , - , ( ) . , . ; , , (Wilson 1999). , . : , . , , . . . . , , . 234 . , , ( ). ; , (Page 1998). : . 1991 . . 1995 . . 1997 . , , , . , , , , , . , -. <$ » , . . : . 1980- - 1990- .: , . , ; 1986 . . 1980- . , . , - , 1980 - , , , , , , . , - 235 . , . , 1989 . ( ) , - , . , , , , , (, ) «» . ; , . . , . , , - . , . , . , , , , . « » , ( .) , 2007 . , , : - . () . 1997. ( ) 2020. , - . , , - 236 (Hoekman and Souve 1994, Page 1998). . - . , , . , . « » « » . , , . , , , , . , ( ) . , ; , , , . , , . (1988) , . , , . ; , . , . , , . - 237 , 1987 . . , . , , , , , « ». , , , (Rowat, Lubrano, and 1997). 1996 . , -. , - -, 1996 . ; , , , . . , , , , - , , , . 1990 . , . , . , , , - . - , 1 2003 . . . 238 . , , . - , , (Togan 1997). , , , . , , , ; ( ) -", , , , . , , . . 1. . 2. ( - ). 3. , . , , . 4. , . -, , . , - 239 , , . , - . . , . - , , , - - . , , « -. . , , , . , , , . . , ( ) , . ( ), - . , , . , . , , , . : - . 240 , , , . . , , , , , . , , - . , , - . . - , . . , , , , , , , - . , - . , , . , - . . - , - , - . : ; ; . . , , , . ; - 241 , - . , . , ; , - , , . , . , . «!>, , . , . , , , , , . , , , ; . , - , . , , , , . , . , , - - () () - . - , 242 , , , ; , ; , . . , . , , , , , , - , . , < » , . , 18 , . , ( 2010 ., - 2020.), . , - . , , , . , - , , . , . , , , . , , , . , , , , , - 243 . , , - - . , , . . - - , , . ( , ) , -; , . , (Bergsten 1997) , , , , , . , , . : . , , . 2005 . . , , , , . , , . . . - « » - 244 , . , . , - . , , , . . . , . , , , , , . , , - : , . , , . : Schiff and Winters(2 002) . 2 , . 245 3 , , « , . . , , » (Wilson 1999: 37). , , , (Financia! Times, February 19, 1998). 4 . : Hoekman and Braga (1997). 5 , , . 6 . :Greewold and (1993) Francois, Palmeter, and Nelson (1997). 7 , , . 90% , (Schone 1996; Messerlin 1997). , , , . 8 , , , , ( ), , , (). : Schiff and Winters (2002). 9 (Schiff and Winters 2002) « - , , , , , . 10 , . - . , . , , , . 11 , , , , . 246 . , , , . , . 12 1950- , , : , , , , , (Milward 1992: 191). 13 , , - , . 14 «» - ; - , , . , , , , 8, . 15 1992 . . . 16 , , , . , -. . 17 . 1992-1996 . 33 , « N2 1» (Tavares de Araujo and Tineo 1998). 18 , (. Holmes 1996: 5). (Pittman 1998) , . 7 , , , , . , , , , . - - , , . , , . , . , , . , , , . , - , - , . , , . 248 , . , , , , . , , ( , ) . , , . , - , , - . 7.1 : 1797 . « » (Kant 1992: 157). XIX . , , . , 1933-1944 . , . , - . , , . , , , , -, , ( ). , - , ; , . , , , -, -, . , ( ). , , . /: 13% 1958 . 3% . ? , , ( , ) . , , , , - , - , . , - 253 7.2 , . , , , , . . , , . , . . (Arad and illm 1979) , . (illm and Long 1983) , - . , - , -. , , « », . « », , , , . (. 7.2). , - 254 , (Chan 1984), , , . (Polachek 1992, 1996) . , , , , (Conflict and Data Bank), , . , 6% 1%. : , , -'. , . , , , . , , , . 80 ( ) . , . , . , , , , , , , . , , . , . - 255 '[ . (Wallace, 1994: 4) , « , » . 1951 . 1957 . , . - (DeRosa 1995), , , (Page 1998). , (Anwar 1994) , - , - . (Srinivasan, 1994: 7) , , , « , , ». , , . . , 1980- . , . 1991 . . , (), , : « , , - -. . 256 , , . ( ,1998). , , . . 1986 . 11 15 , - , - , (Oxford Analytica Daily ], September 5, 1997). , , , - , - - . , , , . , , , (. 7.2). , , - , . : - , , , , , , , , . , « ». 257 11 « , . . . , - , , ; - . , , , - , . , , - ''. . - . , , '[ , , , , , , , . , , - . , , . , , , , . , . , , . , , , , . 1828 . - - 258 , , , . , , « » , , . , . , , . 1860 . , . , - , , , - (dms 1993). - () . . , . , , --- . , 1978 . - 1979. , , , , , . , , , , , , , , - , , , . , «», , . - - , , . 259 , , , , . , - (Winters, 1997). : . , , , ( , - ), , - . , , , , . , , . , , . , , . - , , , , , - . , , , , , , . , , , , . , «1> . , , , , - 260 , , . - : , , . , , . , , , - . , , ; , , , . , . , . , (OECD 1995). - , , . - . , , . , , , . , - 261 , , , , . . , , (Lopez and Schiff 1998). , , , , . -, . - , , , . -, - , , 7.3 , - () 25 1996 ., -, , . , 24 1998 . . () , , , . « »? , , ? , , . , , . , , . - . , , . 262 73 , . - « '>. , , - - , . , . , 1957 . . , - , , , ( ) . , ? 1957 . , . , - , . , - , . , 1980 - . , 10-15 % (Hanson and Harrison, 1999). , , , , , , . , - ; , , « » , . , , , , , , (Sewastynowicz 1986; Morrison and Zabin 1994). 263 , . 1- , . , , . , , , (Blanchars and Katz 1992). , , , , , , , . . -. , . « » , , , ( ) , , . . - - 1996 . , , , . ( ) , 264 , , . , , « 1> , ", , (. 7.3) . , 1960- . , , , . (Bhalla d Bhalla, 1997: 159) , , « - , - , , , ». , « <1 » ( 1, 2). , , , (Washington Post,July 24,1998). , . (1992) , - . , , - . ( 4), , , , , (. 7.3). , , - , , , , . 265 , , , . -, , , , - , - , ( ) . , , , ; , . , , -, , . , ( ) , , . , -, . , , . . , , - , , , , . . - , , , , . -, , , , . , , , . , - , . - . 266 7.4 , . ( ) , , 1834 . () , 1871. . , , 1878 . , 1847 . . . - - , , . , - , . 1603 . , , 1707. ( 1993). , , , , 1600 , 1790. 1848. . , . , . . , « » , . . . - 267 , (McQueen, 1998). « » - , , (Counci! of the Union 1998), (., Winters 2001 ; Schiff and Winters 2002, 2002) , , « , . , - ; . «» , , , . . , , , Collier and others (1997), , , , . , , . , , - . , . , , . , , , - , . , , . 268 , , . (, .) , , . , , , - (. 7.4)8. , . , , , . , . , « , , , , . , , , « , , , » (Viner 1950: 92) . , , , . 269 , 1665 . ( ) (Viner 1950: 93). , 1981 ., () , , , (Schiff and Winters 1998) . - . . () 1980 . , IOAP . IOAP , (). , , , ( , ) . , , . , ; . 7.5 , . , 1973 ., , , , , , . , - , , - , , . - 270 7.5 - 10. 2,55 ., - 0,24 6,3 . . , ( 1994;, IAOB 1995). : ; (, , ) ; - . , , ( 1994). rATTjBTO, , () . , , , , , " ». , . , , . , . (Andriamananjara and Schiff 2001): · ( ); · ( ); · (, , , - , ). 271 " - »: « , » . , , (Andriamananjara snd Schiff 2001). . , . , . , , , . ; . , . . - ( ), ; , . , 1973 . (. 7.5). - , . -. . , , . - 272 . , , , , . , , , - , , , , ( ) [ . , , . , , , ( ), , . (Inotai 1991) : « , . 1988 . 20 , 11 ». , , . , 1996 . , . , , (Bhalla and Bhalla 1997). , , - , , , . , . 273 (Whalley 1998), , 1950- ., , , , , . . , , , . , 8 . - , 1938 . (Taylor 1979). 2 , , , , . 3 , , : , . 4 , , , , . (Mansfield 1993) , ( ), , , , , , . 5 , - . 1, . 6 , , - , . , (Schiff 1998) , 274 , ( ), . 7 Declaration the Democratie Commitment in MIRCOSUR, San Luis, Argentina, ] 25, 1996; Talbott 1996; "Survey MERCOSUR", The Economist, October 12, 1996. 8 , , 80% , , (Milward 1992: 2). -, . 8 - . , , . - , , , . ( - , ), , . , , , . , - , , , . , , , . : , , , « » , . , , , 276 ; , , . , , , , . , , , - , . , , , . , , , , . , . . , : - (, ) - . , ; , .. . , , . , , - . , 30% , 60%, 277 . - - , , . 5% , . , , , , . , , « , - . . () - , ' . 14% /. , , , , . - - 22% , 18,2% - 13,4% - . - 25% , 57% 35,3% - (10,2%, 48,8% 17,8%, ). , . .8.1 , . , . , -. : , - 278 ? , , - , . - , , , - -, , , . ( ) , , , . 8.1 (%) ( ) , (1997) 12,2 70 (1997) 13,4 260 (1997) 12,0 35 (1994) 35,1 62 (1996) 27,0 124 (1997) 30,1 260 (1996) 13,0 200 (1996) 22,8 100 () 12 ,8 /· (, 2006) 12,0 63 (1997) 8,7 78 (, 1995) 18,6 30 (1996) 13,2 · /- IICT . - ; - ( ) : - ; ( ); - . . , . 110 : Echavarria (1998). . . - () . 279 , . , , (Ba!assa 1974; 1975; Winters 1987; Sapir 1992). , , . (Bayoumi and Eichengreen 1997) , 1,7 , 1959- 1961 ., . 1957-1973 . , 1973 . 83,1 ., , 24 . , , . (Franke! and Wei 1998) , 1990 . . (Sapir 1997) , 1960 1972 . « », - . , 1980 1996 ., , , , , (Yeats 1998; So!oaga and Winters 2001; . 2). - ; 1994 . , . , . 1995 . , - 20% 35%, -. 1994- 1996 . 47%, 66%. -, , , 280 , , , . 1993 1996 ., , 91%, - 93%. . (USIC 1997), . , - . : . , - « », - «!>. , . , , , , , - , , - . , : . , , , . , . 1. , , , , . 2. , , . . 281 . (. . ) , , -'. . , . , , . , - . . , , - ". , () . , . , . , , . (, : Haaland and Norman 1992) , . , , - . ( ) . , , . , ''. , ( ), , ". , , (- ), . , , , . , 10%, - 282 , 10 %- , . , , . , . , « , , , «-» . , , (Aitken, Hanson, and is 1997), « , , , . , , , . , , , - , . , , . ( ), , , , . , , , - , , ? , , . , . , , , , , . ( , , ), , . , , - 283 (. 2). , , -, , , 1% . , , 99%. , , , . , , . -, . , , , . - , . - , . , , - . - . , .: Gasiorek, Smith, and Venables (1992) Scollay and Gilbert (2001). , -, , , , - : . 8.2. , , . , /, , , , . . « » (Gupta and Schiff 1997). - 284 , . , . 1966-1968 . , 1969. , , (. . 8.), % . 1970 . , , - , , . , . , , 7% , . 4%. . , - , 700 . . 1966. ( ) , , . 8.2 ( % ) - - 0,08 -0,02 0,01 () 0,58 - 0,12 0,27 , 0,50 -0,03 0,09 -0,03 0,00 - 0,01 -0,02 -0,01 - 0,01 ( ) 0,44 - 0,01 0,00 . - ; - : - ; - : - . : Scollay and Gilbcrt (2001). 285 83 1966 - 1968 (<<>.» 1970 - 1972 (» (. . ): 32 7 1 27 (%): 7 -3 4 2 : Gupta ] Schiff (1997). . (Chang and Winters 2002). . 8.1 , () 323, 1990 1996 . ( ), , . , . (, ), , , , . 20 ------_._=------- 15 +--------F~-~ 10 +-_~__._~~-- 5 -5 +- 8_ -10 -'-- 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 . 8.1. , 323 , 1990-1996. : Chang and Wintcrs (2002). 286 ( ) () . , . , () , . , - ( , ) . , , . . 8.2 - , , , . , - , . . 8.3 . , , , . , , , - , - . , , , 1/5 , -. 11 (Schiff and Chang, forthcoming) , . , , . (Chang and Winters) , . - , , - , , , , , « » . : , 287 15 ~ ~ 10 <::! ~ SE: 5 ;:: <::! ""'''"''"''' - ~:C <::!<::!~ , ~u~ ~ ~ ~2C'\ -5 ;:!'::!~ ~ ;:: ::! ~ -10 r;:,,,, ;:: ;:: ~ <::! (} -15 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 - ~ . 8.2. , 156 , 1991- 1996 : Cllang and Winters (2002) . , . , - , . , , , , , . , , , , , . , - ~ ~ 10 <::! ~ 5 SE: " ;:: <::! \;J\;J~ ~~ , -5 ~,-,e;:, - 1':: '" ~2~ ~::!~ -10 ::! ;:: ;:: ~ r;:,i§ -15 ~ <::! (} - 20 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 . 8. . , 99 , 1990- 1996 : Chang and Winters (2002). 288 . , . (Chang and Winters) , , . , 8.1 , . , , . , , . , . , , , . , , , , -, . , ( . : Baldwin, Foslid,and Haaland 1996). , , ; , , . - ? - , , , . 289 8.1 1 980- . - . 35% , 53% . , 18% . , . , , , , , , . , - . ( , ), 5%, () - 0,5%(Haaland and Norman 1992). , , . . , (Bald\vin. Forslid, and Haaland 1996). , , , , (Gasiorek, Smith, and Venables 1992), . , . , 0,5% 3%. , . , , , (Haaland and Norman 1992) , , (. 8.2). 3 , , . 290 8.2 ? . , ( . . 1.1 1) . , , , , . , . , 10 , , , , , . ; - , , (Foroutan 1998). . , , ( 1 9 7 0- 1980- .) , . , . , - , , . , , , , . , , - . , . . , . , , , 291 , . , , '', . . , , . , . , , , , - . , , . « » , , , . . -, , . -, , . , 1986 ., , . 15 , . , - , - ''. , -". : , 292 , . 3 , , . , , . , , « ». . , - , - , . , , - , , , . : - - , . , ; . : , (. , « - ). . , , , ? , . () , . , 1995 . 503 , , , , . 293 , , , , . , , . : . - , « . « - , . (Ruggie 1992) , , : · . , , , . · . , . · . , . . , . , . , () 11 - . , , , , 294 , , , . , , , , . , , . , , , , . , ; - , . , , , - - . , , , , , , . , , , 1970- . - . . , , . , . 1991. , , ( ) . , 295 ( ). , , , ( ) . , - , , , . . , , . - : -, , - , (. 3). , , . . . , , , , . , , . : · . ( - ) , , , . (. . , ) , , ; · , ( ), - (. . ) ; · ( ), . , () ( 296 ) () , . , .. . : , , . (Bond and Syropoulos 1996) , : , . , , , , , , . , . , . . , , - . , , . , -, , - , , , , - . , , . 297 8.3 , - . (Foroutan 1998) . , . , . , . « , - . . (1960-1975 1990 .) , ( 1990 .),, , . , , , , , . , , : (), . ; , , , . , 1980- ; . , - , . 1994 . - - ( ); , . , . , , , 298 83 , , . « »: , . - . , - ; . : ( + ) / . , , 1980-1984 1990-1994 !. - , 1970-!. . , ? , . 1. , . , , . 2. ( ), , , , , . , , . 3. , . 4. . , , . 299 83 5. . , , , , , , . , , , . . « . , , , , . - (%) " 1981- 1990- 1981-1990- 1980- 1990- 1980- 1990- 85 94 85 94 84 94 84 94 « » 20,6 10,2 19 22 31,0 13,8 25,8 15,4 26 30 174 107 35,6 31,0 30,7 24,4 47 45 40 48 59,9 41,8 22 30 20,5 15,0 43 68 26,3 26,6 40 43 . , . ( + I)/. : Fut(1998). «!> , «. , . , - - 300 . , 8., , , , , . , (Bond, Syropoulos, and Winters 2001) . , . , , , . , , . , , . , , , . ? , 1957 . . , , , (Lawrence 1991; Sapir 199; WTO 1995). , . 1. , , 1960- . , , , , . 2. , , - , - 301 , . , , . . , . , , : -, , . , , , . , , . , , , . 4. , :. , . (Winham 1986) , ( ) . , , : , , -, , -, . , , , . , . (WTO 1995), « , ... [] , » . , , . « 1990- ., , , , . , - 302 , , . «» , 199 . (Bergsten 1997). , , . , , : . , , 1990 . 1992 . (Hathaway and Ingco 1996). : . , . , . « » , . «» . « !> , - . : . « » (Baldwin 1995, 1997). , , . . , - !2. (Baldwin 1995) , - 1980- . . , , . , . ; , , ; ; , (), . , , « » . , 1999 . , , . , , , , , , , « . «. , , , , . , , « » , , , , . , , , (.: Andriamananjara and Schiff 2001). - , , , ; , -, . , . . 8.3. , (Frankel, Stein and Wei 1997) , , , , - . . , ; , , , 304 , , , . , , . , , '. 2 ___ -1 ___ -2 -.- -3 -4 2 3 4 . 8.4.« » : : Frankcl, Stcin, ! Wci (1997). ? , , , . , ( ), . , (Nordstrom 1995; m and Sorenson 1996). , - , , - 305 , , , , . , - , , «» , , (. 8.4)14. , , , -, , . , , , , . , 1993 1996 . « » , , , , , , , , . , , , . 8.4 - ? (Yi 1996), (Bhag\vati 1991, Serra and others 1997), 1933 ., , ~OTKP » - , . , , . . , - 306 8.4 , . , , « », , ; - , , . .,- . , , (, , , , ), , . , , . . , - , , , « », , ... , , , . , , . , , , , . , , , , , . . , ; 30 , , , , . , . « » ; " , 307 8.4 , . , - , . - , , , , . , , . , , - , , . , , , . , . - , « , - , ( ), . « » , -? 8.4. « » , , . : ;; , , , , . « » , , ; - , : - , - . : , , . , « » 13 . 308 , , , . : - - . , , « », , . 8.4 « . : , 2 3 ( ): 1957,, - , , , , ( ; 1973, , -3, , , , ; 1981, ; . 1986,, ; 1995,) , , ,,LU;2004, , , , , , , , , , , , , , . . , · : 1989,, . 1994, - ; : 1989,, , , , , , · , . - . . 309 . 8.4 1 2 3 , , , , ; 1991, , (), () ; 1993, , - ; 1994,; 1998, , , : 1973, , , , - , , ; 1974, , , , , -, ; 1983, - ( , ) ; 1995, ; 2002, ( ): 1996, , , , , , 1989, : 1980, , , , , , , , , ; 1990, ; 1994, ; 1995, ; 1998, , : 1994, , ; -' , , , , ; 1997, - : 1993, , , , ; 1996, ; 1997, ; 1999, ; 2002, ; 310 . 8.4 2 3 2004, , , , : 1992,, , , , ; 1994, ; 1995, ; 1997, , ; 1994, . - - ; - - : - ; -- « - ( . ): - ; - ; - ; - : - ; - ; - ; - - ; - ( ); - : - ; - ; - ; - ; - ; - ; - ; - ( ): - ; - ; - ; - . : . « » - , , - , , , . « 311 1920-1930- ,(Eichengren and Franke! 1995) . , 1931 ., . (lrwin 1993). 1919 . , 1932 . , . , 1929 . , , 1934 . . , , . ( 1992). , ( , , -, ), , . « , - , « », (. 8.4) 15. « » - . , , , . , , , « », , , . , , , , 8.5 « . 312 8.5 : , , , - . , , , . , (Whalley 1998), , . , . , ( ) . , . 1986 . , , , , . ( , , « . ) , , . , 1986 . , , . (, ) . , , , « » (. ). , , : ( 1 2), ( 2 3) « » ( 3 4). , , . , , , . - « » 43,6% . , . 313 8.5 . , . , , ( , ). , , , . , ( , %) - - : - 1,2 0,5 -0,4 0,5 -25,S 0,9 0,4 -0,7 -8,5 0,1 -0,3 -5,2 -5,2 -5,4 (12- ) -8,5 3,4 3,4 2,5 - 5,2 -33,1 -33,S 10,1 - 10,6 -10,9 -11,1 -13,4 - 6,0 -5,8 - 5,8 -6,2 : Whallcy(1998). , , , , , , « . , , , - . 314 , . - , , , , . , ( ) «, >.'> (Far Eastem Economic Review, August 17, 2000). : ? , , , . , , , , , , «>.'>, (Krugman 1993; Kahler 1995). . , , . , , . , , <1>.'> . Andriamananjara and Shiff (2001). , , (Winham 1986). , , , (Basevi, Delbono, and Marrrioti 1994). , 315 , , « » ( ), . ; , (Wang and Winters 1998). , , . , IOAP , . , , , , . , , (. 8.6). , . . , - , . ? , , ( 1995). , , , , , - . , (- 316 8.6 , ; , , . , , . . , , . , , , , . , . , , , , . , , , , . , , . , . , - , , 5 ., 19 21 (. Winters 2002) . , , , , ), (, ). , « » ; , () 317 1997 .; , 17. , , (Hoekman and Leidy 1993). (, ), , « » (), -, - (). , , , 30 , . , , . , . : , , ? ? , , ? , , , , ? , , . . « » , (Bergsten 1996; Lawrence 1996)., « » , ( ) . , . (.: Preeg 1970: 152). . 318 - , , , , . , , (Ostry 1998), . , (Bhagwati 1993) . () ; , , , . , , , () . , , , , , . , . -, , , . -, , , . 1998 ., , . -, , . - , , , : , . , , . 319 , «» , , , , , 6, , , , , . - . - . , , . , , «». « », « » , -, , , , . -, « » - , . (Srinivasan 1998) « » , , , : , . , - , , . , , (Bergsten 1997) « »: 1. « », , , , . , , , . . 320 2. ( ). . - , , - . , , , , , , 18. , , . . , , . , , - , , , « », . - "take it leave it" « < - »). , () . , , , , () , , 1996 . 4. . , - 2010 . 2020 . . 5. , , . , « » . , - ( ), , 321 , - . 2-5, , ; 2020 .; ( ) , ; , , ( , , ). , , , « » 1957 . , « , - , , , » ( , 11, 1). « ». (Echavarria 1998) 1980- , , 1996 ., « » . «, , » ( 1995), (Pelkmans and Brenton 1999) « » « » , « » « » . : « [ ] - ... « ». , « ... » (.:Srinivasan 1998). - . , , - . 322 « » - , . , , , , , . , » , . , : · , -, , ; · , ; · , , , ; · - . , , . , -. , , . , , , , 323 , , . , . ; , , , , , . . 1947 . , . , , -, , . , , (, ), , . , , , , . , - , , , - . - , . , , , , . , , « . 50 , , -. ; , , , , 324 . , 1995 . , « ». . , ; , , - , . , BTOjrATT , . . - , , . - . « » (single undertaking), - () , , , , . , , , . : 1. , , , - . 2. ; , - - , . , , , , . , , , , . « 145 , - , - , ? » ( : « » , , , .'". 325 . . . , 4. , « », - -. (Bagwell and Staiger 1998) , « »: - , - , , ( , ), ; - . . , , , XXIV , , , . (. ). , : · « » ; · « » , ; · « ». - . . ), - , . . , , , , 326 . , , , , . XXIV, , -. , « » . , . , , . , , . , , () , , - . , . XXIV . , . , , - . - - , . , , . , , - . XXIV , , , 327 . , « . , , , ; ; , , . , . XXIV, , « », - , , , . , . « » - : , , . , , - , - , - . , - , , XXIV . , 1996 . XXIV. (WTO 1995: 16), 69 , 1994 ., , XXIV, - - . XXIV; . , , . XXIV . : - 328 , ; , . XXIV, 2 . 2 - , , , - - , -, (, . ), . , , , /". , ; , . , XXIV.10 , «» ( ), , , . (1952 .) (1965 .). «. , . . , 1979 . (Enabling clause), . , . , , « , » . , , «» . -. 12 , , . 329 25% 50% , , , . , , , . , , 1980- . , . , . (Nogues and Quintanilla 1993) , , 17 , 1986 ., . , XXIV. , , , , . , (1960 .) (1977 .) XXIV (Finger 1993), . '. . XXIV . V , ( . ) . : , <1 >.'>, , « » , . « » : , « , >.'>. <1 >.'>, « / 330 » ( ), /". « » « » , « » - . , : - «» , , , , . , . , , , , . , - , , , -". , . , . . , . , (1999.) , , , , 28. , , . , . (Finger 1993) « » , , . , , , , . , - 331 . . . (Bhagwati 1993) : , . 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