WORLDBANKGROUP GROPE QRI5KPROFILES ANDCENTRALA5IA (ECA) EI AFFECTED BY 100-YEAR AFFECTED CAPITAL LOSS BY 250-YEAR FROM 250-YEAR FLOOD EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKE GDP $28.2 billion* L3 L atvia's population and economy and agriculture making a small are exposed to earthquakes and contribution. Latvia's per capita floods, with floods posing the GDP was $22,000. greater risk The model results for pres- SALTIC SEA ESTONIA ent-day risk shown in this risk profile This map displays GDP by are based on population and gross province in Latvia, with greater domestic product (GDP) estimates for color saturation indicating 2015. The estimated damage caused by greater GDP within a province. aEiESA historical events is inflated to 2015 US T b c e ae dollars. risk of experiencing floods and the orangeGDPlu circles the risk was $22000 ATk5e I Close to 70 percent of Latvia's pop- of earthquakes in terms of 0 ulation lives in urban environments. normalized annual average of The country's GDP was approximately affected GDP. The largest circles R US$28.2 billion in 2015, with nearly 70 represent the greatest normal- percent derived from services, most of ized risk The risk is estimated igas Madonas the remainder generated by industry using flood and earthquake risk models. Dobetes A7rul,Lda The table displays the prov- Rezekne5 TOP AFFECTED PROVINCES inces at greatest normalized risk for each peril. In relative terms, as shown in the table, U) EARTHQUAKE the province at greatest risk of ANNUAL AVERAGE OF ANNUAL AVERAGE OF floods is jekabpils, and the one AFFECTED GDP () AFFECTED GDP () at greatest risk of earthquakes LI TH UAN 1A Ogres. In absolute terms, it Sis Kuldigas Limbazu 0 is Rigas. L Ogres 3 Rezeknes 0 Annual Average of Affected GDP (GOP (billions of Preilu 3 Saldus 0 Rigas 3 Talsu 0 rs There is a high correlation Aizkraukles 2 Madonas 0 (r=O.95) between the auvas 2 R EAirs UEARTHQUAKE 1 population and GDP ofa eagkabs 2 BalOrs province. Valkas I Kuldigas 0 Valmieras 1 Aluksnes 0 0 Negligible Lat iaWORLDBANKGROUP DR ROPE ANDEENTRAL A51A(ECA) E|G his map depicts the impact of event, then less frequent events make flooding on provinces' GDPs, a larger contribution to the annual represented as percentages of average of affected GDP. Thus, even their annual average GDPs affect- if a province's annual affected GDP ed, with greater color saturation seems small, less frequent and more indicating higher percentages. The intense events can still have large bar graphs represent GDP affected impacts. by floods with return periods of 10 years (white) and 100 years (black). The annual average population ESTONIA The horizontal line across the bars affected by flooding in Latvia is about also shows the annual average of GDP 30,000 and the annual average affect- affected by floods. ed GDP about $600 million. Within the various provinces, the 10- and VlirsR US S 1AN When a flood has a 10-year return 100-year impacts do not differ much, period, it means the probability of so relatively frequent floods have occurrence of a flood of that magni- large impacts on these averages. Ifa is 10 percent per year. tude or greater larger-contributionrtoatheaannual A 100-year flood has a probability of occurrence of 1 percent per year. Lff 'I) B This means that over a long period of time, a flood of that magnitude will, Madna on average, occur once every 100 years. It does not mean a 100-year flood will occur exactly once every a Dau LiepjasDobl,esAlzrauiesLudzas 100 years. In fact, it is possible for a flood of any return period to occur more than once in the same year, or to appear in consecutive years, or not to happen at all over a long period of time.Dagvps Affected GOP for Annual Average of Affected GDPPT%) same height, then the impact of a 10- 10 and 100-year return periods ye ar event is as large as that ofa 100- sl ha Ont block [a LAR S year event, and the annual average ofp affected GDP is dominated by events a d o L that happen relatively frequenty. If the impact ofa 100-year event is much greater than that of a 10-year 10-year 100-year LatViaWORLDBANKGROUP GFRROP EL AND A5IA(ECA) ECENTRAL T he worst earthquake to If the 10- and 100-year bars are affect Latvia since 1900 oc- the same height, then the impact curred in 1908. Other major of a 10-year event is as large as events have occurred in 1616 and that of a 100-year event, and the 1821. annual average of affected GDP is dominated by events that happen This map depicts the impact of relatively frequently. If the impact earthquakes on provinces' GDPs, of a 100-year event is much greater represented as percentages of their than that ofa 10-year event, then BALTIC SEA annual average GDPs affected, with less frequent events make larger greater color saturation indicat- contributions to the annual aver- ing higher percentages. The bar age of affected GDP. Thus, even if graphs represent GDP affected by a province's annual affected GDP Nb FEEERAT N earthquakes with return periods seems small, less frequent and Valks of 10 years (white) and 100 years more intense events can still have (black). The horizontal line across large impacts. VWntskilesTake the bars also shows the annual VentpiA average of GDP affected by earth- The annual average population Cesu Golbenes quakes. affected by earthquakes in Latvia is Rigas BalvU about 100 and the annual aver-age -Ri._ 2__ artquae has When an earthquake Whenan hs a 10-yearTurn a10-ear GOP about $2 million. The annual ',Kuldigas j m K3 Ors -- aoa return period, it means the prob- avrae o flsd ias ability of occurrence of an earth- quake of that magnitude or greater less than one and about $500,000, Jelgavas les is 10 percent per year. A 100-year respectively. The fatalities and epajas Rezeknes' e arthq uake ha s a probabil ity o f eac rquae ha aprobaltryeaof occurrenceintense, capital losses caused by more 7 lekabpils\ Prei lu I less frequent events can This means that over a long period be substantially larger than the of time, an earthquake of that mag- annual averages. For example an Kras[avas nitude will, on average, occur once earthquake with a OA percent Daugavpits every 100 years. It does not mean annual probability ofoccurrence L_1HUANIA a 100-year earthquake will occur (a 250-year return period event) exactly once every 100 years. In could cause nearly $20 million in fact, it is possible for an earthquake capital loss (ess than 1 percent of GDP not affected for 10 and Annual Average of Affected GOP LA S of any return period to occur more GDP). 100-year return periods than once in the same year, or to AnnLal average = 0 appear in consecutive years, or not to happen at all over a long period of time. RO" AN CENTRAL E|GDR A51A(ECA) LatiaWORLDBANKGROUP EARTHQUAKE ( EARTHQUAKE ANNUAL AVERAGE CAPITAL LOSS ($) ANNUAL AVERAGE FATALITIES 0 he rose diagrams show the provinces with the potent i T for greatest annual average capital losses and highest annual average numbers of fatalities, as determined using an earthquake risk model. The potential for greatest capital Madonas 20,000 Vamieras 30,000 Kuldigas 0 Saldus 0 loss occurs in Rigas. EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY CURVE, 2015 AND 2080 ,ยง~EARTHQUAKE YJ'EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY CURVE, 2015 AND 2080 he exceedance probability curves display the GDP .1 affected by, respectively, floods and earthquakes for 12 0.35 varying probabilities of occurrence. Values for two different 030 time periods are shown. A solid line depicts the affected 00 30 208025 i EARTHQUAKtype of eean the range e GDP based woldranebr of affected abolycut $5 isllio of on a selection to about climate 2015 2080 and socioeconomic scenarios for 2080. For example, if Lat- 1 ;2 8 0XCEn 0.25type rnof eteud rDanged o au $5elion o abouat in 20 15 the , affected G P would have been a butaed $ 0 6$ 05$ 20 ili I had il.I In 2080 avia avia e, the affected experienced a 250-yearreunpiofld G dPfrom the 250-year ehqaen same lod ypeo een earthquake 50 4illion. 0 ~ 0.**15ev .. in 2 , th e affected GDP would h ave been a 0151 butiatd $70 0 100 1 2500 million. In 2080, oe, the affected GDP from the sameeo tn pend (years) event would range from about $100 million to about $300 10 2 1 0.4 million, due to population growth, urbanization, and the Probabi lity(% Probability (%) - increase in exposed assets. Damage estimates for all historical events have been inflated to2015 US$.