70205 v1 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Project Local Resilience Action Plan 213730-00 Final | June 2011 213730-00 | Draft 1 | 16 June 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Project Local Resilience Action Plan Contents Page 1 Executive Summary 4 2 Introduction 10 3 Urban Resilience Methodology 13 3.1 Overview 13 3.2 Approach 14 3.3 Hazard Assessment 14 3.4 City Vulnerability Assessment 15 3.5 Spatial Assessment 17 3.6 Stakeholder Engagement 17 3.7 Local Resilience Action Plan 18 4 Ningbo Hazard Assessment 19 4.1 Hazard Map 19 4.2 Temperature 21 4.3 Precipitation 27 4.4 Droughts 31 4.5 Heat Waves 32 4.6 Tropical Cyclones 33 4.7 Floods 35 4.8 Sea Level Rise 37 4.9 Ningbo Hazard Analysis Summary 42 5 Ningbo Vulnerability Assessment 45 5.1 People 45 5.2 Infrastructure 55 5.3 Economy 69 5.4 Environment 75 5.5 Government 80 6 Gap Analysis 87 6.1 Overview 87 6.2 Natural Disaster Inventory 87 6.3 Policy and Program Inventory 89 6.4 Summary 96 7 Recommendations 97 7.1 Overview 97 7.2 People 103 7.3 Infrastructure 106 213730-00 | Draft 1 | 16 June 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Project Local Resilience Action Plan 7.4 Economy 112 7.5 Environment 115 7.6 Government 118 7.7 Prioritized Recommendations 122 8 Conclusions 126 213730-00 | Draft 1 | 16 June 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Project Local Resilience Action Plan List of Tables Table 3.1: Ningbo City Vulnerability Assessment Table 4.1: Ningbo Temperature Rise in Short, Medium and Long Term Table 4.2: Tropical Cyclone Grades in China Table 4.3: Land Subsidence in Some Chinese Cities Table 4.4: Summary of Sea Level Rise Prediction in Zhejiang Province and Yangtze River Delta Table 4.5: Loss on Relative Sea Level Rise in Yangtze River Delta Table 4.6: Losses of Tidal Flats and Wetlands Caused by Sea Level Rise by 2050 Table 5.1: Schools in Ningbo Table 5.2: Summary of Ningbo Healthcare Services Table 5.3: Major Identified Ningbo Power Plants Table 5.4: Top Three Energy-Consumed Heavy Industries in 2009 Table 5.5: Features of Key Industry in Ningbo Table 5.6: Current Water Quality in Ningbo Table 5.7: Ningbo Administrative Units Table 5.8: Main Targets in 12th Five Year Plan (2011-2015) Table 5.9: Key Large-Scale Strategic Projects in 12th Five Year Plan Table 6.1: Hazard Gaps Table 6.2: City Vulnerability Gaps Table 7.1: Matrix of Prioritized Recommendations 213730-00 | Draft 1 | 16 June 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Project Local Resilience Action Plan List of Figures Figure 2.1: Ningbo Location Figure 2.2: Ningbo Topology Map Figure 2.3: Ningbo among the top Port Cities with High Population Exposure to Climate Vulnerability Figure 3.1: Urban Resilience Methodology Framework Figure 3.2: Climate Scenario Worldviews Figure 3.3: Local Resilience Action Plan Figure 4.1: Geological Hazard Distribution and Prevention Measure Figure 4.2: Ningbo Monthly Temperature Figure 4.3: Annual Average Temperature Figure 4.4: Annual Temperature in Ningbo Figure 4.5: Annual Forecasted Temperature Rise of Ningbo Figure 4.6: Temperature Scenarios for Ningbo Spatially Figure 4.7: Annual Rainfall in Ningbo Figure 4.8: Monthly Rainfall in Ningbo Figure 4.9: Average Annual Rainfall Figure 4.10: Annual R10 Observation in Ningbo (1953-2005) Figure 4.11: Annual Forecasted Rainfall of Ningbo Figure 4.12: Annual Forecasted R10 of Ningbo11 Figure 4.13: Annual Forecasted R5D of Ningbo Figure 4.14: Total Number of Serious Droughts annually in Different Districts Figure 4.15: CDD of Ningbo under Different Scenarios Figure 4.16: Number of Days with Temperature over 35°C in Ningbo Figure 4.17: HWDI of Ningbo under Different Scenarios Figure 4.18: Annual Frequency of Tropical Cyclones in Ningbo (1956-2006) 213730-00 | Draft 1 | 16 June 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Project Local Resilience Action Plan Figure 4.19: Average Highest Wind Speed during Tropical Cyclones (1956- 2006) Figure 4.20: Geographical Distribution of Precipitation from Tropical Cyclones (1956-2006) Figure 4.21: Total Number of Recorded Floods in Different Stations Figure 4.22: Inundation Area of a 50-year Flood Event Figure 4.23: Annual Sea Level at Four Monitoring Stations Figure 4.24: Annual Sea Level Monitored by Satellite around the Ningbo Coast (29-31°N, 122-124°E) Figure 4.25: Estimated Inundation Area of a 2m Storm Surge Figure 4.26: Hazards in Ningbo Figure 5.1: Population Change, 2010-2030 Figure 5.2: Population Density and Agriculture Population Distribution by Region in Year 2008 Figure 5.3: Floating Population Percentage in Major Chinese Cities Figure 5.4: Social Services and Assets Map Figure 5.5: Higher Education Enrolment Rate in Cities Figure 5.6: Health Care in Different Cities Figure 5.7: Ningbo Land use Plan (2008-2020) Figure 5.8: Transportation Network Year 2003 to 2020 Figure 5.9: Replacement Value of All Roads Figure 5.10: Car Ownership per 100 Capita in Cities Figure 5.11: Power and Water Facilities Figure 5.12: 2009 Ningbo Water Uses Figure 5.13: Water Consumption in Different Cities Figure 5.14: Wastewater Treatment Rates in Different Cities Figure 5.15: Energy Consumption by Fuel Figure 5.16: Total Energy Consumption in Different Cities Figure 5.17: Energy Uses per Capita in Different Cities 213730-00 | Draft 1 | 16 June 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Project Local Resilience Action Plan Figure 5.18: Total Electricity Use of Ningbo Figure 5.19: GDP per Capita in Different Cities Figure 5.20: Air and Water Monitoring Stations Figure 5.21: Annual Change of the Number of Days with Haze Figure 5.22: 2009 Forest Coverage in Different Cities Figure 5.23: Green Space in Ningbo Urban Area (2008-2020) Figure 5.24: 2009 Public Green Space per Capita in Different Cities Figure 5.25: Ningbo Government Leadership Figure 5.26: WB Climate Change Resilience Ningbo Steering Group Figure 6.1: Summary of Policy and Program Inventory Figure 7.1: Annual Hours of Sunshine in Ningbo Figure 7.2: Spatial Distribution of Effective Wind Energy per Square Metre of Hoop 213730-00 | Draft 1 | 16 June 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan 1 Executive Summary Ningbo serves as the Chinese pilot city for the World Bank Climate Resilient Cities (CRC) Program. The CRC program aims to „prepare local governments in the East Asia Region to better understand the concepts and consequences of climate change; how climate change consequences contribute to urban vulnerabilities; and what is being done by city governments in East Asia and around the world to actively engage in learning capacity building, and capital investment programs for building sustainable, resilient communities.‟1 The Urban Resilience Methodology was applied to holistically understand Ningbo‟s current and forecast hazards; sector vulnerabilities; and gaps. This baseline understanding allowed for targeted recommendations to build Ningbo‟s resilience, and form the Local Resilience Action Plan (LRAP). It also involved close stakeholder engagement to understand the city, obtain information, and build local capacity. The process of creating the LRAP and final LRAP intends to be owned and implemented by the City. Each City will have a different set of recommendations to address their urban vulnerabilities and climate change risks. These recommendations were carefully discussed and prioritized based on the Ningbo‟s goals, resources, and other factors. The iterative process and implementation of the recommendations would help support a Climate Resilient Ningbo. Climate Resilient Ningbo: to enhance Ningbo’s ability to prepare, respond, recover, and reorganize to direct and indirect climate change impacts and natural disasters å®?波气候å?˜åŒ–适应旨在æ??å?‡å®?波对气候å?˜åŒ–产生的直接影å“?与间接影å“? 以å?Šè‡ªç„¶ç?¾å®³çš„筹备力ã€?应对力ã€?æ?¢å¤?力以å?Šé‡?组力 Ningbo is located in the middle of China‟s coast, in the South of the Yangtze River Delta The City has six districts (Haishu, Jiangdong, Jiangbei, Zhenhai, Beilun and Yinzhou), three county-level cities (Yuyao, Cixi and Fenghua), and two counties (Xiangshan and Ninghai), covering an area of 9817 km2 and containing approximately 5.7 million people. Ningbo, with its port and diverse industries serves as an economic powerhouse in the region and country. Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 4 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan However, climate change is a growing risk to the City and its socio-economic development. Ningbo Facts OECD ranked Ningbo as one of the most vulnerable port cities in the ï‚· Location: South of Yangtze River world, with high socio-economic asset and population exposure. Delta in Zhejiang Province Ningbo themselves have estimated that geological hazards would ï‚· Coordinate: 120°52‟ - 121°08‟E, 29°03‟ - threaten about 4,600 people and 11.23 million Yuan (1.6 million 30°19‟N USD) of assets. Therefore, the LRAP was prepared to support ï‚· Area: 9817 km2 Ningbo‟s path towards resilience. ï‚· Registered Population: 5.7 million This LRAP had four parts. Part I investigated natural hazards- (2009) weather observations and climate models. Seven key climatic ï‚· GDP per Capita: 10,833USD (2009) parameters were selected: ï‚· Administrative Units: ï‚· Temperature- Temperature rises at an average of 0.9°C o Urban District: Haishu, every decade since the 1950s. Ningbo Meteorology Bureau Jiangdong, Jiangbei, Zhenhai and used a regional model to downscale forecast for years Yinzhou 2020, 2030 and 2050 under UN o County-Level City: Yuyao, Cixi IPCC high, medium and low scenarios. Temperature is and Fenghua expected to continue to rise and by 2050 could increase by o County: Xiangshan and Ninghai 2.3°C. The inland areas, such as the western mountainous ï‚· Annual Temperature: 16.4°C county of Ninghai will face higher temperature increases. ï‚· Annual Rainfall: 1450mm ï‚· Rainfall- Western parts such as ï‚· Topography: Ninghai and Fenghua face greater precipitation. Though o Low elevation in the east the forecast predicts no o Hilly landscape in the west significant change in total precipitation, the duration of ï‚· Port: rainfall in an individual event is likely to decrease, leading to o Second cargo port in China higher rainfall intensity. o Fourth cargo port in the world ï‚· Drought- Drought will fluctuate, but follow an upward trend. Cixi is susceptible to Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 5 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan more droughts. ï‚· Heat Wave- The urban area is more easily threatened by heat waves. Increasing heat waves are forecasted in the city. ï‚· Flood- Flooding occurs more in Ninghai in the southwest and the urban area in the city centre and is expected to intensify. ï‚· Tropical Cyclone- Typhoon risk (30-year return period) for Ningbo‟s people is expected to increase to 48% by 2030; infrastructure will rise by 125%. Xiangshan experiences more violent wind and storms caused by typhoons. Its intensity is likely to increase. ï‚· Sea Level Rise- The city is experiencing a 3.3mm/a sea level rise. The sea level around Yangtze River Delta north of Ningbo will undergo a rise by 16- 34cm by 2030 and 10-80cm by 2050. Low-lying areas in the east including Cixi and urban areas will be vulnerable. Part II examined how the city functions, and pursues socio-economic development through a City Vulnerability Assessment. The qualitative, City Vulnerability Assessment was based on five sectors- People, Infrastructure, Environment and Government. Each sector was analyzed extensively on a range of issues, and compared to other similar Chinese cities to more accurately judge its performances. ï‚· People- Like the rest of China, Ningbo‟s population is growing, becoming more urbanized and getting older. The elderly and floating population are particularly vulnerable and are also increasing. Urban residents are equipped with more healthcare services than rural residents. However, healthcare resources for the City in general could be stronger. The level of healthcare infrastructure per capita is lower compared to other competing cities, like Beijing, Shanghai, Hangzhou, etc. Training and knowledge on climate change is low for healthcare staff and the general public. Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 6 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan ï‚· Infrastructure- The urban master plan has connected Ningbo well internally and externally within the Yangtze River Delta. However, this transport connection relies on motor vehicles. Pollution and traffic congestion are growing along with vehicle ownership. While water supply aims to have full coverage, the City has yet to completely take advantage of maximizing water supply options, such as increasing water storage facilities. Water consumption compared to other cities is still high. Waste management, including separation, and energy security needs to be encouraged more. Total energy consumption is increasing and is higher per capita compared to other Chinese cities. Infrastructure is aging and unable to meet demands from a growing and more urbanized population. For example, floods are a problem for the drainage system in the Three River City District. The total replacement values of infrastructure at potential risks may be up to 23 billion USD in 2009/10. ï‚· Economy- Ningbo has one of the highest GDPs among Chinese cities. However, its wealth differs among the regions, with the rural areas such as Ninghai less well off. Food security is a concern with fewer farmers, increasing imports, more pollution, and natural disasters. Industries such as petro-chemicals, iron, steel, papermaking and shipbuilding are identified as strong economic contributors, but are energy–intensive. Climate change has not been incorporated into the private sector‟s plans, nor have they been involved in climate change efforts. The Port, the main lynchpin of Ningbo‟s economy has only addressed typhoons, versus wider hazards like sea level rise. There are few financial incentives to address climate change. ï‚· Environment- While Ningbo has a comparatively good environment, vulnerabilities are increasing. The City is facing increasing haze days and severe river and coastal water pollution. The green space per capita which plays an important role in improving air quality and reducing flooding risks is low, and even its target is weak compared to other cities. Urban flooding/water logging and coastal flooding are increasing concerns. ï‚· Government- To support the World Bank Climate Resilient Program, Ningbo established a Climate Change Taskforce, composed of relevant governmental departments. However, this taskforce lacks clear responsibility and mission. Coordination and communication between the government departments and levels vary. General understanding and incorporation of climate change into policy and decision-making is limited. Resources, education and training on climate change, climate change modelling, and hydro-meteorological and geophysical modelling are weak. Part III is the Gap Analysis. It was performed to understand the government actions and their effectiveness to respond to natural disasters, and whether the current and planned policies and programs address the current and future climate change impacts and natural disasters. This part was supported by the following inventories: Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 7 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan ï‚· Inventory of Natural Disasters- summarized the major, recent natural disasters, corresponding government actions, and subsequent socio-economic damage. Known government actions are limited to pre-disaster, like relocating people and moving ships to shelters. ï‚· Inventory of Policies and Programs- covered ongoing and planned polices from government agencies that address the City‟s vulnerabilities and climate change risk. The 40 plus policies, range from comprehensive policies, such as the 12th Five Year Plan to sectoral plans such as the energy savings plan. Most of the plans are ongoing, with the farthest timeframe out to 2020. By integrating the hazard and city vulnerability assessments with the two inventories, the gap analysis concluded: ï‚· The proportion of socio-economic damages for Ningbo, within Zhejiang Province is high. ï‚· Government actions focus on pre- disasters. Further information on government action during the other stages of disasters was limited. ï‚· Plans and programs rarely or partially address climate change and Ningbo‟s Vulnerabilities. For example, the City Master Plan 2020 will expose an additional 150,000 residents and 20 million m2 building areas in 50-year flood zones. While the city has gradually formulated emergency system, no emergency plan has taken changing climate into account. Part IV therefore was to develop recommendations for each of the city vulnerability sectors. The 70 plus recommendations are specific to Ningbo‟s vulnerabilities and risks. They are described briefly, intended to serve as an introduction. Feasibility studies are recommended before further action or implementation. Overall, there is a need to: ï‚· Increase climate change awareness and education for government officials, healthcare workers, the private sector, vulnerable populations, and the general public; ï‚· Introduce and apply spatial and other tools to model and monitor climate change hazards; and ï‚· Integrate climate change risks into all sectors of decision-making. A final workshop was carried out by local stakeholders and the Word Bank Team to discuss, modify and prioritize the proposed recommendations. A Recommendation Chart, divided by cost, complexity, timeframe, and other factors was built into the prioritization exercise for consideration. The local stakeholders ultimately prioritized five recommendations: ï‚· Strengthen Climate Change Modelling- Climate modelling in Ningbo was limited, and attributed to some of the limitations in the LRAP‟s hazard and vulnerability assessment. Ningbo recognized the need to enhance its climate Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 8 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan modelling for more thorough and accurate understanding of its current and future hazards. The Ningbo Metrology Bureau could lead this. It is considered a medium to longer-term recommendation with greater complexity and costs, partially due to its greater staff training, and modelling tools and resources. Further discussion includes how the ongoing modelling results will be shared and explained to other government departments and affect policy- making. Increase Research on Climate Change Impacts on Health – While it is known that climate change poses a detrimental impact on human health, it has yet to be fully understood or prepared for in Ningbo. The Ningbo Public Health Bureau would take the lead in improving this. Its complexity, costs, and time-frame is seen moderately, with the Ningbo Public Health Bureau taking the lead. ï‚· Determine Climate Change Taskforce Mission and Formal Role- The Ningbo Climate Change Taskforce needs to have a better understanding of its mission and role. Its divided responsibilities among the members and for the taskforce as a whole need to be clear and accepted by all. Other government officials and departments, as well as the private sector and public need to know about the Taskforce and possibly have representation. To effectively implement the LRAP and continue Ningbo‟s climate change efforts, this recommendation needs to be done soon, but can be done fairly easily with limited costs. NRDC could take the lead in this. ï‚· Implement Port Resilience Plan- As the main economic driver in the city, the Port needs to have a more comprehensive climate change plan. Its typhoon preparations are noted, but insufficient against expected more intense and frequent typhoons, and other natural hazards. Naturally, the lead agencies for this would be the Port Authority and Ningbo Port Cooperation Ltd. ï‚· Promote Greening – Despite its higher, future target of 15m2/capita, Ningbo has comparatively less green space than its competing Chinese cities. The socio-economic benefits of green space are known, but it also is seen as a way to help address climate change, especially water management. The Urban Management Bureau and Environmental Protection Bureau are suggested to jointly look into this recommendation further. The recommendations mark the final section of the LRAP, but not the end. The LRAP is intended to be a „living document‟, with the urban resilience methodology as an iterative process. Information collection for Ningbo was difficult and had to be substituted or adapted at times. The current assessments reflects the available information during the project duration, but can be updated as the City changes or with new information. This LRAP is a start to a Climate Resilient Ningbo. Cities that are resilient to climate change will survive and prosper against a greater range of situations, and absorb extreme or unexpected shocks and stresses relatively gracefully, allowing rapid recovery of critical functions. Together, the World Bank Team and Ningbo aim to support a Climate Resilient Ningbo, a city that is able to continue to prosper and thrive with climate change. Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 9 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan 2 Introduction Ningbo is located along the eastern coast of China, south of the Yangtze River Delta. The City covers approximately 115km east to west and 140km north to south. The Zhoushan Archipelago is to the east, Hangzhou Bay to the north facing Shanghai, Shaoxing to the west, and Taizhou to the south of the City. Zhejiang Province‟s Capital City, Hangzhou is around 140km from Ningbo. The City currently has six urban districts: Haishu, Jiangdong, Jiangbei, Zhenhai, Beilun, and Yinzhou, three county-level cities, comprising Yuyao, Cixi and Fenghua in the north, and two counties, Xiangshan and Ninghai in the south. Historically, Ningbo is one of China‟s oldest cities and has been culturally significant throughout many dynasties. It is the Figure 2.1: Ningbo Location birthplace of the Hemudu Culture dating back more than seven thousand years, as well as the Yue Kiln in Shanglin, one of the origins of Chinese civilization. Its economic importance is also noted as a major trading centre along the Silk Road, and a key port city today. In 1994, the State Council approved Ningbo as an Economic and Technological Development Zone. 2 As one of the fourteen quasi-provincial cities with provincial management of jurisdiction, Ningbo has the freedom to pursue its own economic agenda, which it has done so with great success. The city had a six-fold increase in per capita income between 1985 and 1994 and a subsequent doubling of these levels as it entered the new millennium. While its strategic location has brought it economic success, it is also vulnerable to climate change impacts. The elevation of the City ranges from sea level to approximately 950m. Mountainous areas are situated in the west and south of the City. However, other parts are prone to sea level rise, flooding, and storm surges: ï‚· About 40% of the total land area is below 10m elevation ï‚· Most of the low elevated area is in the northern half of Ningbo and along the coastline ï‚· Most of the urban developed area are within the 10m or below elevation above sea level According to studies by “Ningbo Climate and Climate Changeâ€? book,3 the climate change conditions in the past 50 years for the City can be summarized as follows: ï‚· Increasing rate of average year/ month temperature ï‚· New heights of extreme high and low temperatures Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 10 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan ï‚· Increasing number of days greater than 35ËšC ï‚· Decreasing total number of annual rainy days ï‚· Increasing frequency of tropical cyclones Figure 2.2: Ningbo Topology Map4 Ningbo has been recognized by OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) as one of the most vulnerable port cities in the world to coastal Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 11 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan flooding and climate change by 2070s.5 Coastal cities, such as Ningbo, are particularly exposed to rising sea levels and storm surges due to climate change. The following figure presents the exposed population in the identified global major port cities. Figure 2.3: Ningbo among the top Port Cities with High Population Exposure to Climate Vulnerability 5 The combination of Ningbo‟s vulnerability to climate change, the importance of its socio-economic status, and cultural significance makes it an ideal pilot Chinese city for the World Bank‟s Climate Resilient Cities Programme. Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 12 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan 3 Urban Resilience Methodology OBJECTIVES- ï‚· To holistically understand the main climate change induced, urban risks, and provide prioritized recommendations to increase resilience against that risk ï‚· To create a Local Resilience Action Plan for the City to implement 3.1 Overview Climate change has direct effects on the most vulnerable population (e.g. flooding, excessive rainfall affecting shelter facilities, others). It also has indirect effects on the urban environment, determined mainly by the dependency of urban dwellers on the effectiveness of the urban systems that support their livelihood and wellbeing. Direct losses are losses to assets, whereas indirect losses are the losses that accrue while productive assets remain damaged or destroyed. Climate change will affect wider urban systems such as transport networks, potable water facilities, food supply networks, amongst others. Failure of these urban systems as a result of climate change dynamics will impose additional burden on the urban poor and those least able to cope. Figure 3.1: Urban Resilience Methodology Framework Similarly, natural hazards are geomorphological (earthquake, volcano, tsunami) or hydro-meteorological (cyclone, flood, heat wave, landslide, drought) events. Extreme hazard events have the potential to cause significant damage to urban areas, resulting in loss of livelihoods and ultimately loss of life. The severity of the impacts of natural hazard in any location is dependent on its characteristics, and the vulnerability of the local people and place. Understanding urban resilience means capturing three interrelated components. Urban System consists of having a comprehensive understanding of the city, how it functions and is organized; and future conditions and plans. Together with Vulnerability, it identifies the specific weaknesses or risks within the urban system. On the other side is Climate Change, and with the urban system, it identifies the direct and indirect climate change impacts that would affect the city and its assets. It also acknowledges how the urban system, and its traditional way of development based on resource inefficiency, fossil-fuel driven growth, and overconsumption can contribute to climate change vulnerability. These three interrelated components are the basis in understanding the overall city, its vulnerabilities, and climate change impacts to develop specific Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 13 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan recommendations that build a path of resilience- the Local Resilience Action Plan. The Local Resilience Action Plan for Ningbo is part of a greater effort by the World Bank to build Climate Resilient Cities, with Ningbo as the Chinese city pilot. 3.2 Approach This methodology required conducting a Hazard Assessment and City Vulnerability Assessment. The first involved understanding the major natural hazards and climate change impacts that affect and will affect the city. The latter examined the city‟s ability to effectively develop resilience to the identified natural hazards and climate change impacts. Both assessments would be supported spatially to plot major socio-economic significance and their vulnerability. This comprehensive understanding would create a baseline to allow the City to address their gaps. The gap analysis reviewed past actions and policies, to determine the level of expertise, awareness, capacity, as well as data/information gaps. It also looked at past natural hazards, their socio-economic damage, and corresponding government action. Understanding what the city has done to address natural hazards from preparation to recovery would pinpoint the strengths and weaknesses the City has to combat its vulnerabilities. Finally, the City prioritized the recommendations given, based on their goals and resources, to build resilience. The hard and soft recommendations were separated by sector to target the corresponding vulnerabilities. It included a matrix, with estimated time frame, costs, complexity, etc to guide planning and discussion. The overall vulnerability assessment and parallel targeted recommendations matrix would be the process and deliverable to start the Local Resilience Action Plan. 3.3 Hazard Assessment To understand the major hazards and climate change impacts, the Team worked closely with Ningbo Meteorology Bureau to examine the City‟s main weather observations and build climate forecasts. Past weather observations for the coastal port city include: ï‚· Temperature ï‚· Precipitation ï‚· Drought ï‚· Heat wave ï‚· Tropical cyclones ï‚· Flooding ï‚· Sea level rise The Team downscaled the most suitable GCM to forecast temperature under the IPCC SRES scenarios of A1B, A2, B1, and for the time periods of 2020, 2030, and 2050. The SRES scenarios were constructed on future economically and Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 14 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan environmentally driven development paths. Assumptions were made on various demographic, socio-political variables, such as technological advancement, land- use, population growth, GDP, level of global cooperation, etc. All scenarios were considered equally sound. These scenarios ultimately produced estimated carbon emissions rates and level of climate change impacts. More Economically- More Environmentally- Driven Driven Greater A1 B1 Globalization Greater A2 B2 Regionalization Figure 3.2: Climate Scenario Worldviews The temperature forecasts were then plotted spatially. Precipitation was forecasted using R10 and R5D as the main indices. R10 measures the number of days that daily precipitation exceeds 10 mm, while R5D represents the total maximum amount of rainwater in an interval of 5 consecutive days. The indicator Consecutive Dry Days (CDD) was used to look at drought, while heat waves utilised the heat wave duration index. As data were limited, literature reviews were conducted to forecast tropical cyclones, flooding and sea level rise at the Yangtze River region and Zhejiang provincial level. In understanding weather observations and forecasting climate models and extreme weather events, the Team identified the type and level of major hazards Ningbo would be facing, and developed targeted recommendations to address them. This information helped Ningbo manage limited resources and make better decisions on improving their resilience. For example, after review, it is known that earthquakes are not a major hazard for Ningbo. The City is not located in one of China‟s earthquake belts, its seismicity is relatively low and the maximum magnitude of earthquake occurred is small. Thus, the City can focus its efforts and resources on more severe and frequent hazards, such as flooding. 3.4 City Vulnerability Assessment The City Vulnerability Assessment aimed to understand how well the city‟s society and institutions deal with natural hazards and climate change impacts. It was based on a moment in time, with the available information. This was compared against neighbouring, competing cities for similar local context and conditions, and seen in light of the climate models and extreme weather event forecast. Together the five indicators- People, Infrastructure, Economy, Environment and Government- formed an overall assessment of Ningbo‟s vulnerability level. However, splitting them also helped target the city recommendations in the most critical areas. In general, it is known climate change impacts and natural hazards would be more severe and frequent. The previous assessment identified hazard aspects, levels, Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 15 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan and general location. This assessment looked at the city vulnerability level against those hazards, including awareness, plans, and resources. It aimed to answer the following key questions, against their corresponding applications. Table 3.1: Ningbo City Vulnerability Assessment Sector Key Questions Application PEOPLE ï‚· What is the population, ï‚· Assessed if population and where are they located, and social infrastructure are located what are the demographics? in vulnerable areas ï‚· What are their resources and ï‚· Determined if population, awareness to climate especially elderly and other change? vulnerable groups are aware and equipped to combat climate ï‚· What are the major social change infrastructures, and where are they located? ï‚· Looked at whether healthcare is adequate, especially during ï‚· How is the current hazards and recovery healthcare, including access and location? INFRAST ï‚· What is the land use, and ï‚· Determined whether the RUCTUR how is it dispersed? infrastructure can supply the E city‟s growing needs, and can ï‚· What is the major transport continue to support socio- network, and how is it economic development, such as connected within the city water for industry and region? ï‚· Determined if there is adequate ï‚· What are the water, back-up and if critical services wastewater, waste, and can function in emergency, energy networks, and their such as power for hospitals or capacity? Where are they cleared roads for police travel located? ECONOM ï‚· What is the GDP and ï‚· Determined whether the Y economic development business sector is aware and level? equipped to handle climate change, including insurance for ï‚· What are the key industries recovery and where are they located? ï‚· What is the insurance system and level of coverage? ENVIRON ï‚· What is the level of air and ï‚· Looked at whether and how MENT water quality? well the environment can support climate resilience Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 16 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan Sector Key Questions Application ï‚· What is the level of green measures, such as flood control space? GOVERN ï‚· What is the government ï‚· Assessed if the government is MENT structure? aware and equipped to combat climate change, such as ï‚· How does the city manage adequate training and disaster risks? information-sharing across the departments ï‚· Determined whether management deal with climate change 3.5 Spatial Assessment The spatial assessment is a good way of aggregating data into visual representations that are powerful tools for understanding vulnerabilities, conducting community outreach, and engaging policymakers and donors that may influence the city‟s capital improvement programs and capacity building efforts. The spatial analysis was accomplished by first compiling the required information in maps. The maps captured information on the current description of the city in terms of the administrative boundaries, land use, people and economic assets and location prone to various hazards. The maps also illustrated the future version of the city which is used to evaluate the changing profile of the city and the need for undertaking resilience measures. Tangible results of this spatial assessment were maps that ha\d been included in each sections of the vulnerability assessment, as well as in the hazard assessment. Software ESRI Geographic Information System (GIS) is applied in this Study. It was essential for the Team to acquire the necessary data in their right scale, coverage and format. In cases where suitable formats were not available, the team extracted the data from images or PDFs by digitizing them into the GIS layer, which limited the data accuracy. 3.6 Stakeholder Engagement Stakeholder engagement is often defined as the collaboration of the traditional project controlling bodies: the government, the local authority, the financial backer, etc; with those whose interests may be positively or negatively affected by a proposal and whose voice would go unheard without active engagement. Each stakeholder has different views on city priorities and vulnerabilities; and climate change and disaster risk. It is important to engage the various views and arrive at mutually agreed position for long term commitment. Three workshops were organized and hosted by Ningbo Municipality with all relevant stakeholders: Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 17 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan ï‚· Sensitization – presentation of the project, sensitization of the importance of, and links between, disaster risk management (DRM), climate change adaptation (CCA), and city management functions and discussion about contents. ï‚· Inception – presentation of the vulnerability assessment and spatial analysis and discussion over contents and next steps. ï‚· Prioritization – presentation and discussion over recommendations for actions coming from the study. The prioritization as given by the stakeholders is presented here in the Recommendations Chapter. 3.7 Local Resilience Action Plan The LRAP is the start of a climate resilient Ningbo. It is not intended to be static. It can be refined and further developed with new information or changing expectations, as a „living document‟. Recommendations were identified and prioritized based on the gap analysis, needs of Ningbo, timeframe, and resources required. Through the stakeholder engagement process and governance understanding, responsible parties could be identified for project implementation and delivery. The Team has developed a matrix of activities to address Ningbo‟s Local Resilience Action Plan vulnerabilities. A decision support matrix to guide policymakers on the appropriate measures to consider given local context and timeframe has been developed and discussed with stakeholders. Figure 3.3: Local Resilience Action Plan Overall, the priority activity would be strongly supported, specific, implementable and valuable to Ningbo‟s resilience. While activities selected will differ in their cost, delivery time and targeted benefit, there will be opportunities for cross-learning and training. Projects could occur concurrently and leverage each other‟s outputs. Responsible parties will have opportunities to increase communication with each other and share project experiences. “A Local Resilience Action Plan, through the World Bank Climate Resilient Cities Primer is a tool for local governments, like Ningbo, to actively engage in the training, capacity building, and capital investment programs that are identified as priorities for building sustainable, resilient communities â€?1 Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 18 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan 4 Ningbo Hazard Assessment 4.1 Hazard Map The hazard map identified natural disasters all over the City, particularly geological natural hazards, such as landslide, flash floods and land subsidence.6 The map showed that Ningbo has about 6,926km2 of potential area exposed to different levels of geological hazards, accounting for 71% of the overall city area. The following areas are deem at risk: ï‚· Hilly areas in southern and western part like Ninghai and Yuyao face high geological hazard risks in landslide and flash flood;7 ï‚· Low-lying areas such as urban districts and the coast suffer a medium- level risk8 in land subsidence. The integration with the transportation network showed that some planned and currently constructed traffic lines such as Yongtaiwen Railway and Xiangshan Highway will pass through the risky areas, further complicating the risk mangement, control measures and risk adapatation. Ningbo has implemented the Geological Prevention Plan and specifically selected 192 locations for potential geological hazard as prevention areas. It is estimated that these risky areas would threaten about 4,600 people and 11.23 million Yuan (1.6 million USD) of assets. Preventive measures with respect to monitoring, mitigation, adaptation and relocation according to the severity of risks have been included in the Plan to 2015. These measures mainly target the coast, urban center, and vulnerable areas in the south and west of the City. 9 Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 19 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan Figure 4.1: Geological Hazard Distribution and Prevention Measure 4 Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 20 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan 4.2 Temperature 4.2.1 Observations Subject to the subtropical monsoon climate, Ningbo is featured with warm and moist weather. The annual mean temperature is around 16.4°C (1953-2005). The highest month mean temperature is around 27.8°C in July while the lowest month mean temperature is around 5.0°C in January. 30.0 Ningbo Monthly Temperature 27.8 27.5 23.8 23.6 19.9 18.7 Temperature ( C) 20.0 15.0 13.1 9.4 10.0 7.4 6.0 5.0 0.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month Figure 4.2: Ningbo Monthly Temperature 3 Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 21 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan Figure 4.3: Annual Average Temperature 4 The temperature in Ningbo reveals: ï‚· High elevated land has lower temperature than low-lying areas; ï‚· Western Ninghai and Fenghua are 4°C lower than Cixi and Beilun; ï‚· Temperature is higher in urban area than peri-urban regions, reflecting urban heat island effect to a certain extent; Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 22 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan ï‚· Two highest temperatures, 41.7 and 41.2 °C are from very developed areas, Yuyao and Yinzhou Stations. Since the 1990s, various measuring indicators of temperature including average (Figure 4.4), maximum and minimum temperatures in Ningbo have steadily increased, though the maximum and minimum temperature grew at a slower rate. Between 1980 and 2005, the average temperature rose at a speed of 0.9°C every 10 years. Since 1993, the annual average temperature has not been below the average (1953-2005). Meanwhile, low temperature days have decreased. Temperature rise during the winter and in urban areas seems more apparent. 185 Annual Temperature in Ningbo 180 R² = 0.7578 175 170 0.1 C 165 160 Annual Temperature Average 155 Poly. (Annual Temperature) 150 1953 1959 1965 1971 1977 1983 1989 1995 2001 Year Figure 4.4: Annual Temperature in Ningbo 3 4.2.2 Forecast Based on the available climate change information, the Team 10 compared and selected the particular climate change model to be used for Ningbo. Review criteria like resolution/grids, time, available information, mapping and spatial analysis, ability to accommodate topographic changes, etc. determined the model chosen. The regional model – RegCM3 was chosen based on its suitability for local use and ability to generate relatively accurate results. Using the selected model, the „best estimate‟ and „likely range‟ of temperature rise in Ningbo for the three scenarios at three different temporal scales were shown in the following table. 11 Table 4.1: Ningbo Temperature Rise in Short, Medium and Long Term Temperature East Asia Ningbo (°C) Best Estimate Likely Range Best Estimate Likely Range A2 0.97 0.36-1.55 0.31 0.01-0.74 2020 A1B 0.89 0.36-1.50 0.82 0.73-0.91 B1 0.92 0.38-1.42 0.56 0.01-1.40 Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 23 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan Temperature East Asia Ningbo (°C) Best Estimate Likely Range Best Estimate Likely Range A2 1.21 0.51-1.95 0.93 0.33-1.31 2030 A1B 1.44 0.76-2.23 1.62 1.44-1.78 B1 1.15 0.60-1.71 0.98 0.01-1.81 A2 2.06 1.23-2.67 1.43 0.81-1.84 2050 A1B 2.26 1.29-3.19 2.26 2.05-2.53 B1 1.70 0.94-2.67 1.34 0.27-2.19 ï‚· By 2020, Ningbo will undergo around 0.31-0.82 °C temperature rise while East Asia will see temperature increase at 0.89-0.97°C; ï‚· By 2030, temperature rise in Ningbo will go up to 1°C. East Asia will have more than 1°C temperature increase; ï‚· By 2050, Ningbo and East Asia will see similar highest temperature increases under Scenario A1B. ï‚· Overall, East Asia will experience higher temperature rise than Ningbo. Figure 4.5: Annual Forecasted Temperature Rise of Ningbo 11 The steady upward trends could be seen in the annual temperature of Ningbo under all three scenarios. It is estimated that the maximum annual temperature will rise to over 19°C by 2050 under scenario A1B. Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 24 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan Scenario A2 – Year 2020 Scenario A2 – Year 2030 Scenario A2 – Year 2050 Scenario B1 – Year 2020 Scenario B1 – Year 2030 Scenario B1 – Year 2050 Scenario A1B – Year 2020 Scenario A1B – Year 2030 Scenario A1B – Year 2050 Figure 4.6: Temperature Scenarios for Ningbo Spatially 4, 11 Under different scenarios, the City of Ningbo will see: ï‚· Temperature continues to rise along the timeline; Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 25 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan ï‚· Higher temperature increase takes place in inland regions, particularly hilly areas of Ninghai and Fenghua, whereas lower annual temperature have been observed; ï‚· Temperature rise under scenario B1 varies spatially. The temperature rise along coastal area like Beilun could be 1.4°C lower than inland regions; ï‚· The fluctuation of temperature rise under scenario A1B spatially is limited. By 2050, the whole city will generally experience over 2°C temperature rise. Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 26 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan 4.3 Precipitation 4.3.1 Observations The annual average rainfall of Ningbo is around 1450mm (1953-2005). The maximum rainfall on record was 1856.6mm in 1998 while the minimum rainfall was 851.4mm in 1967. 2000 Annual Rainfall in Ningbo Annual Average 1800 Rainfall (mm) 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 1953 1959 1965 1971 1977 1983 1989 1995 2001 Year Figure 4.7: Annual Rainfall in Ningbo 3 Ningbo‟s rainy season starts from June and ends at September. During these months, the City could receive around 50% of its total annual rainfall. The maximum month rainfall is 205.8mm in June, while minimum rainfall is 48.6mm in December. 250.0 Monthly Rainfall Depth 205.8 200.0 186.0 170.8 160.6 Rainfall (mm) 150.0 136.0 126.9 118.6 100.0 89.3 74.3 66.4 66.3 48.6 50.0 0.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month 3 Figure 4.8: Monthly Rainfall in Ningbo Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 27 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan Figure 4.9: Average Annual Rainfall 4 Ningbo‟s annual rainfall reflects: ï‚· Spatial rainfall varies throughout the City in the range of 1310-1720mm; ï‚· Higher precipitation is in south-western mountainous regions, like Ninghai and Fenghua, with lower annual temperature but higher temperature increase; ï‚· Beilun and Cixi in the north receive up to 400mm less rainwater; Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 28 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan ï‚· Urban area is at the intermediate level in the total rainfall amount. The indicator R10-the number of days with daily precipitation equals or exceeds 10mm displays significant variations from 1953 to 2005. The maximum R10 occurred in year 2002 with over 40 continuous days of rainfall. The historical minimum R10 with less than 20 rainy days took place in 1967 when the City was hit by serious drought. 50 Annual R10 in Ningbo 40 Days 30 20 10 1953 1959 1965 1971 1977 1983 1989 1995 2001 Year Figure 4.10: Annual R10 Observation in Ningbo (1953-2005) 3 4.3.2 Forecast In terms of annual total rainfall, the forecast results under three scenarios all see notable variations but keep constant in the long run. The maximum annual rainfall could reach around 1800mm, 24% higher than historic annual rainfall under scenario A2 while the minimum annual rainfall could go down to around 900mm under scenario B1, 38% less than historic records. Figure 4.11: Annual Forecasted Rainfall of Ningbo 11 Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 29 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan Apart from the total rainfall, two indicators selected to examine future precipitation are: ï‚· R10 – number of days with daily precipitation equals or exceeds 10 mm; ï‚· R5D– total maximum amount of rainwater in an interval of 5 consecutive days. Similar to the historical records, the forecasted R10 under all three scenarios displays great fluctuations along the time. The minimum forecasted R10 is over 20 days under scenario B1, exceeding the historic value. The maximum of more than 50 days under scenario A1B, also is higher than the historical record. Figure 4.12: Annual Forecasted R10 of Ningbo11 However, regardless the fluctuations, there is a generally slight downward trend in R10, demonstrating a decline in rainfall duration. While the total amount of rainfall remains unchanged, the rainfall intensity would increase, potentially causing heavy storms and flooding. Similarly, R5D manifests no obvious changing trend under all three scenarios. The maximum R5D could exceed 160mm under scenario B1. This means five days of rainfall will surpass a dry month‟s total rainfall. The minimum rainfall amount could drop to around 90mm. Figure 4.13: Annual Forecasted R5D of Ningbo11 Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 30 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan 4.4 Droughts 4.4.1 Observations Drought gradually takes place when temperature increase causes higher evaporation, rising water demand but without sufficient incoming rainwater. As mentioned in the precipitation section, the rainfall volume will not substantially change, but come heavier under a shorter period. Without effective water resource management, such uneven rainfall distribution at temporal and spatial scales could result local flooding or drought. In Ningbo, droughts review: ï‚· The occurrence usually appears from July to September; ï‚· Hilly area such as Xiangshan (represented by Shipu Station) is easily affected by drought, where the area is also susceptible to strong wind induced by tropical cyclones; ï‚· Vulnerable area with less rainfall and long sunshine hours (see later section), like Cixi also experience comparatively frequent drought; ï‚· In 2003, the most severe drought attacked the city, lasting for 201 days with less 20 R10 days. Total Number of Seirous Droughts (1971-2005) 5.0 4.1 3.9 4.0 3.2 3.0 3.0 2.4 2.3 2.1 2.0 1.0 0.0 Yinzhou Cixi Yuyao Beilun Fenghua Ninghai Shipu Figure 4.14: Total Number of Serious Droughts annually in Different Districts 3 4.4.2 Forecast To forecast the droughts that might hit Ningbo, the indicator Consecutive Dry Days (CDD) was selected. Different from the longest dry days, CDD is defined as the maximum consecutive days without precipitation (rainfall less than 1mm). Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 31 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan Accordingly, the trends of all scenarios oscillate, showing peak and trough through the periods. In general, there is likely a slight upward trend under scenarios A1B and A2 while scenario B1 has no significant trend. Scenario A1B shows the highest number of consecutive days (more than 70) without precipitation. Figure 4.15: CDD of Ningbo under Different Scenarios11 4.5 Heat Waves 4.5.1 Observations Hot days are defined as those above 35°C. 12 As seen in Figure 4.16, the number of hot days has been rising. The urban area in Ningbo only had eight hot days per year between 1960 and 1979. But this number rose to 22 days between 1990 and 1999, and 31 days between 2000 and 2009. The highest temperature in the 20th century was 39.5°C. However, the 21st century, already recorded four years with temperatures exceeding 40 °C. In 2009, the highest temperature reached 41.3 °C. 50 Number of Days with Temperature over 35 C in 40 Number of days Ningbo Number of Days Poly. (Number of days ) R² = 0.4703 30 20 10 0 1953 1959 1965 1971 1977 1983 1989 1995 2001 Year Figure 4.16: Number of Days with Temperature over 35°C in Ningbo3 Error! Bookmark not defined. Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 32 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan 4.5.2 Forecast The Heat Wave Duration Index (HWDI) is the number of days where, in intervals of at least 5 consecutive days, the daily maximum temperature is larger than the 1970-2000 average maximum temperature. Like the annual temperature rise, all the scenarios show an increase in HWDI. The maximum value of HWDI would almost reach 60 days under scenario A1B in year 2040s. After 2040s, HWDI could go over 20 days ever year, greater than the base HWDI at 10.2 days. Figure 4.17: HWDI of Ningbo under Different Scenarios 11 4.6 Tropical Cyclones 4.6.1 Observation Tropical cyclone is a storm system characterized by a large low-pressure zone and numerous thunderstorms that cause strong winds and heavy rains. The Grade of Tropical Cyclones in China categorizes tropical cyclones into six grades based on wind speeds. Table 4.2: Tropical Cyclone Grades in China13 Maximum Mean Maximum Wind Grades Wind Speed (m/s) Scale (grade) 1 Tropical Depression 10.8~17.1 6~7 2 Tropical Storm 17.2~24.4 8~9 3 Severe Tropical Storm 24.5~32.6 10~11 4 Typhoon 32.7~41.4 12~13 5 Severe Typhoon 41.5~50.9 14~15 6 Super Typhoon ≥ 51.0 16 or above Observations in Ningbo have seen: ï‚· Tropical cyclone season- May to December; ï‚· 4.7 average tropical cyclones per year; ï‚· More than one 3+ tropical cyclones affect the City per year; Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 33 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan ï‚· Genesis from Northwest Pacific. Figure 4.18 indicated that the number of tropical cyclones in Ningbo has a slightly upward trend, though this increase is not regarded as statistically significant. Annual Frequency of Tropical Cyclones in Ningbo 12 Tropical Cyclones Annual y = 0.0119x + 4.4565 Frequency R² = 0.007 10 Linear (Tropical Cyclones Number of Times Annual Frequency) 8 6 4 2 0 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 Year Figure 4.18: Annual Frequency of Tropical Cyclones in Ningbo (1956-2006) 3 Figure 4.19: Average Highest Wind Figure 4.20: Geographical Speed during Tropical Cyclones Distribution of Precipitation from (1956-2006) 3 Tropical Cyclones (1956-2006) 3 Tropical cyclones that affect Ningbo usually carry strong wind and heavy storms, resulting in: ï‚· The wind speed decreases from eastern coast to western inland region; ï‚· Strongest wind speed is in Xiangshan, where several ports are located; ï‚· The induced heavy rainfall from tropical cyclones takes place in western part of the City, similar to the annual precipitation. Ninghai receives the most rainwater, followed by Xiangshan; ï‚· Cixi is less likely to be affected by tropical cyclones, where the area suffers relatively frequent drought, less rainfall but long sunlight hours. Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 34 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan 4.6.2 Forecast It is difficult to forecast tropical cyclones due to large uncertainties in the models. There are some general global forecasts for the region: ï‚· Tropical Cyclones will increase in the Northwest Pacific by the end of the 21st century. 14 ï‚· IPCC AR4, scenario A1B, shows a 20-65% reduction in maximum wind speed of 20-60m/s, and 92% increase in wind speed over 60m/s. 15 ï‚· Average intensity will increase by 2-11% by 2100.16 Initial studies have estimated typhoon risk (30-year return period) for Ningbo‟s people would to increase by 48% by 2030, while for infrastructure would increase by 125%.17 4.7 Floods 4.7.1 Observations Ningbo‟s storms have three main types: ï‚· Typhoon storms- high intensity and long duration, easily causing flash floods and landslide, etc. ï‚· Plum rains-long duration, likely inducing landslide; and ï‚· Strong convective storms- sudden occurrence with high intensity, usually leading to flash floods, landslides and flooding in low-lying areas. Between 1953 and 2005, there were a total of 167 storms occurring mostly from May to October. As indicated in Figure 4.21, the floods reveal: ï‚· There will be 0.4-1.4 floods per year in Ningbo; ï‚· Ninghai suffers the most floods, almost twice as the other districts. This is related to its hilly topography, higher annual precipitation and typhoon rainfall; ï‚· Urban area represented by Yinzhou is the second most flood-prone area. Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 35 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan 80 Total Number of Recorded Floods 60 Number of Times 40 20 0 Yinzhou Cixi Yuyao Beilun Fenghua Ninghai Shipu Stations Figure 4.21: Total Number of Recorded Floods in Different Stations 3 Though the current data are partial, it is noted that a 50-year flood in Ningbo is expected to inundate over 500,000 people in the city, who are mainly located in the urban areas in the proximity of the three rivers. 18 Figure 4.22: Inundation Area of a 50-year Flood Event19 4.7.2 Forecast Forecasting flooding in Ningbo is difficult due to lack of flooding maps, drainage systems, tidal information, etc. There are some regional forecasts: Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 36 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan ï‚· Eastern China will see an increase of the 1/100 frequency of flood occurrence in one hundred years; 20 ï‚· Increased flooding is expected in the mid-lower Yangtze River, where Ningbo is located; 21 ï‚· Zhejiang Province will face more severe floods by 2020; 22 ï‚· If future sea level is to rise to 65cm, the frequency of high water in 100- year return would likely increase by ten times, causing 110.1 billion Yuan economic loss to the Delta. 23 It is forecasted that the sea level rise would accelerate the storm surges and flood disasters in Yangtze River Delta. OECD ranked 136 port cities of over 1 million population with high exposure to one-in-100 year surge induced flooding. It reviewed exposure of population and assets, in 2005, and 2070. In population exposure and economic assets, Ningbo was ranked 14th and 11th respectively out of the top 20 world cities.5 It is expected that Ningbo will experience high absolute exposure; a large scale flooding could impact substantial portions of the city infrastructure, population, and socio-economic activity. 4.8 Sea Level Rise 4.8.1 Observations Accelerated sea level rise due to global warming is indisputable: ï‚· Global sea level rises at a rate of 1.8±0.5mm/a between 1996-2003; 24 ï‚· China sea level rises at a rate of 2.5mm/a; 25 ï‚· East China Sea and the Yangtze River Delta sea level rises at a rate of 3.1mm/a; 25 ï‚· Zhejiang Province sea level rises at a rate of 3.3mm/a between 1970 and 2000. 25 The results recorded between 1960 and 1990 near Ningbo‟s four tide gauges show the increase in sea level. The increase rates are: ï‚· Changtu (30°15‟N, 122°18‟E)- 2.0mm/a, ï‚· Dinghai (30°00‟N, 122°04‟E) - 3.6mm/a, ï‚· Zhenhai (29°57‟N, 121°43‟E) - 4.0mm/a, ï‚· Xize (29°37‟N, 121°50‟E) - 1.0mm/a, ï‚· Average - 2.1mm/a. Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 37 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan However, since 1990, the data from satellite surveillance show a 5.8mm/a rising rate around the Ningbo Coast (29-31°N, 122-124°E). Figure 4.23 illustrated the sea level monitoring results at four stations of Ningbo and Figure 4.24 showed the features of sea level between 1993 and 2007. Figure 4.23: Annual Sea Level at Four Monitoring Stations 11 Ningbo Coast Annual Sea Level Figure 4.24: Annual Sea Level Monitored by Satellite around the Ningbo Coast (29-31°N, 122-124°E) 11 Sea level rise effect would be further exacerbated by many factors, in particular land subsidence. Wu et al. discovered land subsidence has occurred in Ningbo at a 10mm/year. 26 Though the subsidence rate is relatively lower than other coastal cities, the subsidence still makes the sea level rise more challenging. Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 38 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan Table 4.3: Land Subsidence in Some Chinese Cities 26 City Tianj Shangh Suzho Wuxi Ningbo Fuzhou Zhanjia in ai u ng Max total 2780 1680 1100 1140 460 679 413 subsidence measured/ mm Subsidence 7000 2600 200 100 150 690 area/km2 Subsidence 47 30 21 10 rate/mm.a-1 Ningbo‟s economic asset, the Beilun Port, along with its surrounding industrial area is within the 2m inundation area; an estimated 185,000 people reside there. 27 Figure 4.25: Estimated Inundation Area of a 2m Storm Surge 28 4.8.2 Forecast Over the next decade, the State Oceanic Administration forecasted China‟s coastal sea level will likely rise by 32 mm (3.2 mm/a).29 Yangtze River Delta (YRD) will see a 16-34 cm sea level rise by 2030, and 25-51 cm rise by 2050. 30 Taking account land subsidence, YRD will have a higher, 60- 80 cm sea level rise by 2050.31 Under IPCC medium emission scenario, YRD is expected to face a 10 to 48cm sea level rise by 2050. 29 Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 39 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan Zhejiang Province is expected to face sea level rise of 11-12cm and 18-19cm by 2030 and 2050 respectively, relative to the average level in 2000. 32 Table 4.4: Summary of Sea Level Rise Prediction in Zhejiang Province and Yangtze River Delta Sea Level Rise (SLR) (cm) 2030 2050 ï‚· 25-51 Yangtze River Delta 16-34 ï‚· 60-80 (land subsidence) ï‚· 10-48 (medium scenario) Zhejiang Province 11-12 ï‚· 18-19 Though there are variations among different model predictions, the impacts of sea level rise on Yangtze River Delta have been widely acknowledged. ï‚· Submerging of Land Due to the low elevation of the coastal areas, including Ningbo, large areas will be underwater if sea level continues to rise by 2050. Table 4.5: Loss on Relative Sea Level Rise in Yangtze River Delta30 Relative Sea Level Rise (RSLR) value/mm 300 650 2 Submerged area/km 898 27241 Submerged losses/billion RMB 13.0 41.7 Cost for heightening and reinforcing 0.32 1.65 of tide control dykes/billion RMB Tidal flats and wetlands that are rich in living resources and high biodiversity will experience significant loss. Ningbo has around 0.39 million ha of wetland. If the same rate of loss occurs, the city will lose around 0.1 million ha of wetland. Table 4.6: Losses of Tidal Flats and Wetlands Caused by Sea Level Rise by 2050 30 Tidal Flats Wetlands Area/km2 Rate (%) Area/km2 Rate (%) Yangtze River 47.5-49.5 14.98-15.61 30 37 Delta ï‚· Aggravated Damage by Storm Surge Studies have estimated that sea level rise would result in an increase in frequency and intensity of storm surge and will greatly affect the aquaculture, agriculture, industrial production, residential life, etc. It is estimated that the sea levels for a 100-year storm event in the vicinity of Hangzhou Bay would reach a maximum of 5.72m above Yellow Sea Datum (YSD); a 500-year storm event would yield a maximum of 6.12m above YSD. 33 Due to the increasing likelihood of larger storms returning at more frequent intervals, coastal areas like Cixi and urban areas in Ningbo with rather low elevation, would be susceptible to the severer storm surges, resulting in the need to build sea walls up to 7.0m above YSD. 33 Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 40 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan ï‚· Exacerbation of Flood and Water logging Issues As sea level rises, water levels of tidal rivers will be higher. The subsequent backwater effect will reduce the drainage capacity of the low-lying areas and result in flooding issues to vulnerable regions, such as urban centre. The prediction shows a relative sea level rise of 40cm will reduce 20% capability of natural drainage in the Yangtze River Delta and its neighbouring cities. 30 As presented in the previous floods section, the rise of 65cm sea level will enlarge the frequency of high water in 100-year return by ten times and lead to around 110.1 billion Yuan economic loss in the Delta. ï‚· Acceleration of Coastal Erosion The sea level rise will accelerate coastal area erosion. A 50cm rise of sea level will result in 36%-50% lost of coastline. 30 Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 41 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan 4.9 Ningbo Hazard Analysis Summary Overall, Ningbo is expected to undergo the following climate and natural hazards: ï‚· Temperature increase, up to 2.3°C by 2050, the highest inland ï‚· Increase heat waves ï‚· Shortened duration of rainfall, but stronger rainfall intensity ï‚· Slight increase of drought ï‚· Increase in number and intensity of typhoons ï‚· Increase in frequency of flooding ï‚· Sea level rise- up to 34 cm and 80 cm by 2030 and 2050 respectively for Figure 4.26: Hazards in Ningbo4 Yangtze River Delta region In addition to the direct climate change impacts, there are wider socio-economic impacts for Ningbo: Hazard Observations Forecasts Impacts34 Temperatu ï‚· Maximum ï‚· Temperature ï‚· Increase energy and re temperature in July rise under three water consumption ï‚· Minimum scenarios and ï‚· Increase vector-borne temperature in three time diseases January periods, ï‚· Water temperatures- ï‚· Relatively higher maximum affecting aquatic temperature in urban 2.3°C by 2050 life/algae and fishery area ï‚· Higher rise production ï‚· Temperature rise at inland, such as 0.9°C every 10 years Ninghai Precipitati ï‚· Maximum rainfall in ï‚· No significant ï‚· Increase risk of on June change in total flooding ï‚· Minimum rainfall in rainfall ï‚· Call for efforts on December ï‚· Variations managing adequate Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 42 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan Hazard Observations Forecasts Impacts34 ï‚· Greater rainwater in under scenarios water supply all year southwest ï‚· Slight round mountainous areas, downward ï‚· Threaten water such as Ninghai and trend of R10 quality Fenghua ï‚· Likely ï‚· Food ï‚· Constant total rainfall intensified rain security/agriculture ï‚· R10 fluctuates storms ï‚· Increase water-borne disease Droughts ï‚· Annual variations ï‚· Likely increase ï‚· Call for efforts on ï‚· Spatial variations under A1B and managing adequate ï‚· Easily affected area- A2 scenarios water supply Xiangshan and Cixi ï‚· Maximum ï‚· Threaten water CDD- over 70 quality days ï‚· Food security/agriculture Heat ï‚· Increase number of ï‚· Increase in ï‚· Increase heat related Waves days HWDI stress and strokes, ï‚· Highest temperature ï‚· Over 20 HWDI especially among record in urban areas after 2040s elderly and vulnerable population ï‚· Increase energy and water consumption ï‚· Increase vector-borne disease Tropical ï‚· Occurrence from May ï‚· Increase of ï‚· Potentially induced Cyclones to December total number urban flooding ï‚· At least one grade 3+ ï‚· Decrease of ï‚· Increase storm surge tropical cyclone per tropical ï‚· Increase socio- year cyclones at economic damage ï‚· Strong wind in wind speed 20- ï‚· Affected port Xiangshan and heavy 60m/s industry induced rainfall in ï‚· Increase of Ninghai, Fenghua and tropical Xiangshan cyclones over ï‚· Genesis from 60m/s Northwest Pacific Floods ï‚· 0.4-1.4 per year ï‚· Increase of ï‚· Increase water-borne ï‚· High possibility in flooding diseases Ninghai, followed by ï‚· Increase of ï‚· Poor water quality urban areas flooding risk frequency ï‚· Socio-economic damage ï‚· Affected biodiversity ï‚· Increase geological hazards, like landslides Sea Level ï‚· At a 1.8±0.5mm/a Yangtze River ï‚· Land loss in low Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 43 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan Hazard Observations Forecasts Impacts34 Rise globally Delta: elevation (0.1 million ï‚· At a 2.5mm/a rate in ï‚· 16-34cm rise ha wetland loss China by 2030 submerged, assumed) ï‚· At a 3.1mm/a rate in ï‚· 10-80cm rise ï‚· Increased damage East China Sea by 2050 due to storm surge ï‚· At a 3.3mm/a rate in Zhejiang ï‚· Floods and water Zhejiang Province Province: logging ï‚· Land subsidence in ï‚· 11-12cm rise ï‚· Coastal erosion eastern coastal area by 2030 like Cixi and urban ï‚· 18-19cm rise region by 2050 The hazard assessment has identified various vulnerable areas among the districts: Districts Hazards Risks Urban District (including ï‚· Urban flood Three River City District) ï‚· Land subsidence ï‚· Highly likely heat waves Yuyao ï‚· Heavy storm ï‚· Prone to flash floods and landslides Cixi ï‚· Drought ï‚· Land subsidence ï‚· Sea level rise Fenghua ï‚· Heavy storm during tropical cyclones ï‚· Prone to flash floods and landslides Xiangshan ï‚· Typhoon ï‚· Drought Ninghai ï‚· Great Rainfall ï‚· Heavy storms during tropical cyclones ï‚· Floods ï‚· Landslides ï‚· Higher temperature increase Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 44 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan 5 Ningbo Vulnerability Assessment 5.1 People 5.1.1 Population Like many Chinese cities, Ningbo‟s population is growing, becoming more urbanized, and aging. Out of the total of 7.3 million, 2 million live in the central urban area, and 5.7 million have registered hukous. Resident populations are predicted to grow to 8.1 million by 2020, reflecting an 11% population growth rate for the decade. Figure 5.1 below estimated the population change for the next two decades based on the City Master Plan 2020. The population would be distributed across the city while mostly would concentrate in the inner suburban in the north and west of the central area.35 The urbanization rate of 64% in 2010 is higher than the national average, 36 and is estimated to grow to over 70% in ten years.37 Figure 5.1: Population Change, 2010-2030Error! Bookmark not defined. Cixi, Yuyao and Yinzhou Districts in the city center have the highest population. Cixi, in particular, has over 1 million people, accounting for around 18% of the total population. Ningbo population density is around 583 people per km2. Though the population in the urban areas is lower than the surrounding, peri-urban regions, the population density in the city centre is high. Haishu and Jiangdong Districts have over 10,000 people per km2, with no agriculture population. Most of the rural Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 45 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan population live in the surrounding areas of Ninghai, Fenghua and Xiangshan with less than 400 people per km2. Population Type Number Vulnerability Total Population 7.3 million ï‚· Increase affluence and numbers demand greater Population in 2020 8.1 million resource consumption Urbanization Rate 64% ï‚· Ageing and at capacity 2 infrastructure Population Density 583 people per km ï‚· Less protected rural population, mainly in Xiangshan, Fenghua and Ninghai Elderly Population ~1 million ï‚· Increasing, with less protective resources Floating Population 3.94 million ï‚· Growing with limited social services Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 46 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan Figure 5.2: Population Density and Agriculture Population Distribution by Region in Year 2008 4 Ningbo‟s elderly population has reached one million, accounting for 16.3% of the total population (household population), and will exceed 20% of total population (household population) by 2020, and 29% by 2030. 38 While it is hard to track exact figures, and the figures given are likely to be underestimated, it is observed that Ningbo has a sizeable and growing floating Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 47 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan population.39 Such population trend is correlated with the city‟s GDP and economic development as migrants are attracted to the job opportunities. They contribute to the continual growth of the city by supporting the lower-skilled construction and services industries. Ningbo‟s floating population in 2009 was about 3.94 million, representing over half of the total residents in Ningbo. Compared to other major Chinese cities, Ningbo has the highest floating population rate (floating population compared to total residents). Ningbo‟s floating population rate will increase from 55% in 2009 to over 61% by 2020. 2009 Floating Population Rate by City Cities Chongqing Wuhan Nanjing Hangzhou Beijing Shanghai Ningbo 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% Figure 5.3: Floating Population Percentage in Major Chinese Cities40,41,42,43,44,45,46,47 Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 48 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan 5.1.2 Social Services and Assets Figure 5.4: Social Services and Assets Map 4 Based on the available information, the Social Service and Assets Map locates the major cultural heritage sites, hospitals and healthcare centers, and universities in the City: Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 49 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan ï‚· There are 15 institutions of higher education, mainly distributing around the centre of the city. This correlates with where the urban population are located, and migration patterns of rural youth to relocate to the city. ï‚· There are 84 various level hospitals in Ningbo. The general hospitals are in the city center, matching high population density. Specialized hospitals are fewer and located around the city. Community hospitals are located farther away in the peri-urban region, with other heath centres in the surrounding rural areas. ï‚· The cultural heritage sites are mainly located in the outskirts of the city, away from transport and other infrastructure networks. Cixi in the north has a large number of cultural sites. The locations of education and healthcare centres are correlated with the population distribution and needs. The main and larger hospitals and university are located in the city center, easily accessible by the high population density and supported by the extensive transport network. Meanwhile, the locations of cultural heritage sites are based on historical and social significance rather than purposeful urban design and population. Nonetheless, they face the same difficulty in transport and resource connections as healthcare and education centres in similar locations. The social services and assets that are father away from the city center are less comprehensive and connected than their counterparts in the city center. They are less protected from climate change impacts, and have fewer resources to deal with climate change impacts that occur along the coast and peri-urban region. 5.1.2.1 Education Education has been emphasized and well developed in Ningbo. In 2008, there were 3,511 schools, broken down by the following: Table 5.1: Schools in Ningbo48 School Type Number Kindergarten 1293 Primary School 564 Senior Secondary School 87 Post-Secondary Institution 15 There are also supplementary and technical schools. The total number of student enrolment is over 2.7 million.48 While the enrolment rate of primary school achieved 100%, its secondary school enrolment rate is less than half. In terms of the higher education enrolment rate, Ningbo is fairly similar with other big cities and higher than the average national level. The total number of college students is about 0.14 million. 48 Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 50 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan 2008 Higher Education Enrolment Rate by Cities City National Chongqing Wuhan Nanjing Hangzhou Ningbo 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Higher Education Enrolment Rate Figure 5.5: Higher Education Enrolment Rate in Cities 40,43,44,45,46,47 Apart from the developed general education, public knowledge and awareness of climate change have been steadily growing, though the depth and transferable concern and action vary. A series of interviews to different groups, such as government officials, healthcare workers, floating population, youth, elderly, etc. in the City show various levels of understanding and action on climate change. Education and training on climate change for all levels from government officials to students to senior citizens remain low, and reflects the general ignorance in the City. 5.1.2.2 Cultural Heritage According to “The Bluebook of City Cultural Developmentâ€? (å®?波市文物事业å?‘展è“?皮书2010) by Ningbo Culture and Heritage Bureau, Ningbo has 22 national, 34 provincial and 273 municipal historic, cultural relics. There are also three national and two provincial historical and cultural towns, as well as one provincial historical and cultural city. The Social Service and Asset Map cites the following: ï‚· 320 recorded historical and cultural heritage sites ï‚· 22 national level heritage sites in 35 locations ï‚· 24 provincial level heritages sites in 38 locations ï‚· 264 county level heritage sites in 264 locations The various relics scattered in the City demonstrate a long history and rich culture. It also shows the City efforts in protecting and publicizing its historical tradition and identity. However, protection against climate change is weak. Districts with the most cultural heritage sites such as Xiangshan, Yuyao, and Cixi also face higher vulnerability against climate change. With more disperse population and transport links, it will be harder to protect these sites without added design measure/ retrofits, emergency plans, or training. Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 51 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan District Cultural Vulnerability Heritage Sites Xiangshan Along the coast, threatened by tropical cyclones and extreme weather events Yuyao Hilly topography and high precipitation, prone to >120 heavy storms, flash floods, and landslides Cixi Low elevation at risk to sea level rise and coastal flooding Cultural heritage staff training on climate change is low. In 2009, the municipal cultural heritage staff attended around 23 trainings on different subjects. However, none of these trainings are related to climate change or natural hazard. 49 Though the city has enacted Cultural Heritage Protection Ordinance, no clause involves climate change and its impacts. Much more needs to be done to protect the city‟s cultural heritage sites against climate change. 5.1.3 Health Care On average, in 2009, there are 4 beds, 7 health technicians including 3 doctors and more than 2 nurses per 1000 people in Ningbo. However, the provisions of health facilities and medical staff are not as high as other major cities, like Beijing, Hangzhou, Nanjing, etc. 10 2009 Health Care by City Health Care per 1000 Capita 8 6 4 2 0 Ningbo Shanghai Beijing Hangzhou Nanjing Wuhan Chongqing Cities Beds Health Technicians Doctors (including assistants) Nurses Figure 5.6: Health Care in Different Cities 40,41,42,43,44,45,46 The healthcare disparity is wider within the City: ï‚· The total beds per 1000 persons in urban area are almost three times that of the rural areas. ï‚· The periphery of the city has almost half the number of health care workers of the urban areas per 1000 persons. ï‚· Fenghua, Xiangshan and Ninghai are the least equipped with public health resources. Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 52 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan ï‚· Ninghai and Fenghua, with large number of vulnerable agriculture population are prone to floods due to higher rainfall and hilly topography. ï‚· Xiangshan as identified previously is vulnerable to tropical cyclones. Table 5.2: Summary of Ningbo Healthcare Services District Healthcare Hazard Risks Beds Per Healthcare 1000 Personnel Per Persons 1000 Persons Urban 6.33 10.26 Low elevation with older infrastructure District susceptible to floods, Higher temperature, heat waves Yuyao 2.75 5.11 Hilly topography and high precipitation, prone to heavy storms, flash floods, and landslides Cixi 2.60 5.88 Low elevation at risk to sea level rise and coastal flooding Fenghua 3.63 4.54 Hilly topography and high precipitation, prone to floods Xiangshan 2.45 3.78 Along the coast, threatened by tropical cyclones and extreme weather events Ninghai 2.28 4.48 Hilly topography with higher precipitation, prone to heavy storms, flash floods, and landslide Lower healthcare infrastructure was also confirmed through site visits to hospitals and health care centres, and interviews with healthcare workers. There are not enough healthcare provisions in the city, especially with its growing and aging population. Even the new hospital, expected to be completed by 2012, will not be adequate. The 1000 additional beds provided for the new hospital is still insufficient given the increasing and aging population, not withstanding climate change impacts. Even if the City includes the additional beds in its bed indicator, it will still lag behind other cities.50 Education on climate change for hospital staff is low. Interviews with staff show little training or resources available to deal with climate change. The recent 2008 Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 53 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan heat wave showed that that staff were unprepared to deal with the influx of patients and needs. Broader public education on climate change and healthcare is also low. Since SARS in 2003, the Ningbo Public Health Bureau has maintained a database for recording typical disease, like cholera and dengue fever. However, climate change related diseases, such as asthma rates, heat-strokes or heat-related stress are not included. Studies and data on climate change and public health are limited. 5.1.4 Vulnerability Summary Analysis While we can deduce growing public awareness and willingness to address climate change, the tools and resources available for the people are limited. Demographic shifts will result in a growing, older, and more transient population who will be more vulnerable to climate change impacts. As the city continues to urbanize, the more agrarian, and less dense periphery will have harder access to resources and less connected infrastructure. The social assets, especially the cultural heritage sites outside the city centre have less resources and plans to address climate change. The public health indicators confirmed the city‟s weakness in addressing resilience. Health care infrastructure, comparable to other cities is low, even if accounting for the new hospital plans. There have been little corresponding programs or policies to educate or provide sufficient resources. Climate change and its associated impacts are not well understood by cultural heritage staff, healthcare workers and the public. Research, data, and information collection and distribution on climate change and public health remain low. Sector Observation Vulnerability Healthcare • 4 beds, 7 health • Lower healthcare personnel per capita technicians per • Healthcare facilities concentrated in 1000 people city center • Total beds per 1000 • Limited understanding on health persons in urban impacts from climate change area almost 3x of rural areas • Limited data collection on health related effects and climate change • Fewer healthcare workers in rural • Limited public information on health areas impacts and climate change Public • No climate related • High Commitment, limited general Knowledge disease database understanding on climate change and • Limited resources on preparing and • No healthcare Awareness addressing climate change training on addressing climate • Limited public information change • Limited education and training programs for climate change Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 54 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan 5.2 Infrastructure 5.2.1 Land Use According to the land use investigation conducted in 2008, around 70% of land area in Ningbo is used for agriculture. Construction land only accounts for 15%, and the remaining 15% is unused or other use land. Of the agricultural land, crops land accounts for 30%, 53% is forest land and 9% is garden area. 51 Figure 5.7: Ningbo Land use Plan (2008-2020) 4 The map shows built-up areas are mainly in the centre of the region surrounded by the farmlands and green areas. Extensive developed areas are in Haishu, Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 55 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan Jiangdong and Jiangbei Districts. Fenghua, Xiangshan and Ninghai are still not heavily developed, green areas are largely maintained. Ningbo has set up a Municipal Land Use Management Information System to comprehensively manage the land use on spatial and temporal scale. 52 However, how to manage land use to reduce natural hazard risks, such as flooding is still a concern. Following the 2020 City Master Plan, there will be an additional 150,000 residents and more than 20 million m2 of built area within 50-year flood zones.53 5.2.2 Transport 5.2.2.1 Transportation System To be a modern international port city, Ningbo has developed the Comprehensive Transport Master Plan 2004-2020. The expanded transportation network will strengthen Ningbo‟s connection with the rest of the region, including the larger cities such as Shanghai and Hangzhou; secondary cities such as Wenzhou and Taizhou; and the southern Zhejiang and Jiangsu provinces. Ningbo‟s expanded regional transport links, such as the coastal highways, coastal railway, Yongjin Expressway, and the Ningbo Golden Railway, have made travels easier, faster, cheaper, and more convenient. The Cross Sea Bridge over Hangzhou Bay shortens travelling time between Hangzhou and Shanghai in two hours. The Hangzhou Bay Bridge connects Ningbo to Shanghai and Hangzhou with a similar travelling time of 2 hours. The 1-hour traffic circle within the City and 30-min traffic circle in urban areas will be aided by four travel networks: ï‚· Highways; ï‚· Coastal roads; ï‚· County/village motorways; ï‚· Rail- link to the port and chemical industrial park for goods delivery. Public transport is increasing as well. The central city owns 3,768 public buses with 303 operating lines in 2007. Around 75% of the buses are diesel vehicles, with the rest using gasoline. 54 Six subway lines are being built, with the first one to be completed in 2015. The lines stretch farther out of the city to the countryside, aiming for greater rural-urban connections. Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 56 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan Figure 5.8: Transportation Network Year 2003 to 2020 4 Replacement value of all roads at potential risk was plotted into the map and showed in the figure below. The spatial distribution of road network implied that with widely scattering risk across the whole city, high potential risks lie in the central core and in the coastal area. Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 57 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan Figure 5.9: Replacement Value of All Roads55 5.2.2.2 Private Motor Vehicles Ningbo‟s transport plans intend to have high levels of motorization. The 2009 Statistical Yearbook indicated a total of 9,572km length of highway in the city. This will be used to support the 25% increase in cars and a 27% increase in trucks between 1994 and 2000.56 2009 Motor Vehicles by City Cities National Chongqing Wuhan Nanjing Hangzhou Beijing Shanghai Ningbo 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 Motor Vechicles/100 capita Figure 5.10: Car Ownership per 100 Capita in Cities 40,41,42,43,44,45,46,47 Currently, there are over 1.37 million motor vehicles operating in the city. The motor vehicles ownership per 100 capita in Ningbo is higher than the national Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 58 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan average and close to those cities with the highest motor vehicle ownership like Beijing and Hangzhou. However, related traffic air pollution and congestion are becoming concerns. Whether the planned transportation system is able to cope with the increasing number of vehicles is another concern. In particular emergency lanes are not included in the transport network, a challenge for speedy response and recovery. 5.2.3 Water Resources and Wastewater 5.2.3.1 Water Supply The Ningbo is well known for its – “three river junctionâ€? landscape. The central city area is located at the junction of three main rivers, Yuyaojiang, Yongjiang and Fenghuajiang. These rivers create the major river network in the northern half of Ningbo. Ningbo has established an integrated urban water supply network. It is comprised of a centralized water supply system from the county/town to rural areas and decentralized water supply equipped with water purification and disinfection facilities through pond, containers, etc.57 In 2009, the total water supply to urban and rural areas reached 0.7 and 1.4 billion m3, respectively. Urban areas has six water plants with total capacity of 1,870 thousand tonnes per day. There are six large-size reservoirs, 24 medium-size reservoirs and a series of low capacity reservoirs in the city with total reservoir capacity of 779 million m3. At the end of 2009, Ningbo has up to 8.2 billion m3 of water resources including 0.2 million m3 underground water. The storage ratio of reservoirs is 9.5%, slightly lower than the international standard of 10%. 58 But as indicated in Figure 5.11, reservoirs are not evenly distributed, the majority of which are located in the south of the City, like Ninghai and Xiangshan, with a few in Cixi. Linking with the hazard assessment, it is known more waterworks are still needed in Ningbo: ï‚· Ninghai receives the largest amount of annual rainfall and maintains high reservoir storage, but still experiences frequent floods. More storage is needed to reserve the superfluous rainwater; ï‚· Cixi has the least rainfall annually but in the meanwhile has the least water storage. Greater water storage and other measures are needed to meet its agricultural and industry demands. Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 59 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan Figure 5.11: Power and Water Facilities 4 Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 60 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan 5.2.3.2 Water Demand 2009 Water Use Irrigation, industry and household are the main water consumers in Ningbo, 13% accounting for 35%, 22% and 21% Irrigation 9% 35% respectively. In 2009, agriculture Industry 3 Household consumed 0.7 billion m volume of 3 Environment water for irrigation and 0.5 billion m 21% Others volume of water were used in industry. The daily tap water consumption rate 22% per capita in urban area was 221 litres and 116 litres in rural area. 48 As seen Figure 5.12: 2009 Ningbo Water in Figure 5.13, Ningbo‟s water Uses 48 consumption per capita is lower than major cities, like Shanghai and Wuhan but higher than Hong Kong and Singapore. Cities Water Consumption per Capita by City Hong Kong Singapore Wuhan Chengdu Shanghai Ningbo 0 100 200 300 Litres Per Capita Per Day Figure 5.13: Water Consumption in Different Cities59,60 The rapid growth of population in Ningbo will result in a growing demand on the water resources in the City. The Integrated Water Resources Plan predicts that the City will need 3.1 billion m3 total water in 2020 for domestic, agiruclutral, industrial and ecological development and the demand will increase to 3.2 billion m3 in 2030. The city master plan aims to enhance water supply to 3.0 million ton/day by 2020. For rural areas, a regulation was recently approved on managing water supply, and provides rural areas with full water coverage. 61,62 Four projects are planned to offer Ningbo a total of 0.8 billion m3/year of additional water from the outer city. However, it is still predicted that with the growing population and economic development, the city will suffer about 32 million m3 water shortage in 2030 if drought occurs.57 5.2.3.3 Drainage and Wastewater Treatment There are now 12 wastewater treatment plants serving for the developed areas of the city with over 570 thousand t/day treatment capacity. Four plants are located Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 61 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan in Beilun District while three are in Zhenhai. The city is connected with these treatment plants through pumping houses and pipelines networks. Despite the unavailability of the capacity and spatial layouts of the pipelines, data manifest: ï‚· Among the total 3240km pipelines, around 214km is shared by both drainage and sewage purposes, suffering overcapacity during heavy storm. In the combined pipes, Haishu District accounts for 47%. ï‚· Under the total 49 pumping stations, 27 stations have worked for more than 15 years, some capacity cannot meet the demand and some are aging. The weak infrastructure attribute to urban flooding, identified in hazard assessment. Inappropriate management practices during construction and drainage congestion have also been identified as likely to increase surface runoff and cause urban flooding. 63 In 2009, the wastewater treatment rate was 81% in urban area. Compared to other cities, waste water treatment rate in urban areas of Ningbo is at the intermediate level, higher than cities like Shanghai and Hangzhou but lower than cities like Chongqing. 2009 Wastewater Treatment Rate by City Cities Chongqing Wuhan Nanjing Hangzhou Beijing Shanghai Ningbo 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0% Waste Water Treatment Rate Figure 5.14: Wastewater Treatment Rates in Different Cities 40,41,42,43,44,45,46,47 By 2020, the total wastewater produced in central areas will increase to 1.81million t/d. To maintain a high treatment rate, the city plans to raise the treatment capacity to 1.85million t/d so as to adopt all the generated wastewater. 5.2.4 Solid Waste Ningbo City produced 1.19 million tons of total Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) in 2009. The municipal solid waste treatment rate increased from 75% in 2008 to 100% in 2009.48 Four municipal waste treatment facilities have been set up in the urban area and the total processing capacity is about 2,900 ton/day. For the Fenglin and Zhenhai domestic waste incineration power plants, the capacity is about 1,000 and 600 Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 62 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan ton/day respectively. For the Daao landfill in Fenglin and Yemaoao landfill in Yinzhou, the treatment capacity is about 500 and 800ton/day respectively. Currently much of Ningbo‟s residential waste is not separated prior to being incinerated or disposed of at a landfill, though the City‟s Five Year Plan is pushing for this.64 Both the incineration plant and landfills are able to meet the basic waste treatment demand. Domestic refuse in rural area is disposed in the landfills situated in respective administrative areas.65 The landfill operation has been evaluated by the Ministry of Housing and Urban and Rural Development as Class I due to good performance. Three landfills, one medical waste treatment plant, and a number of solid waste transfer stations are also being planned. However, with the steady growth in Ningbo MSW, inadequate processing capacity is becoming a severe problem. According to the forecast from ―Ningbo 12th Five-Year Waste Disposal Facility Construction Plan, the central city will generate 1.443 million tons of waste per year, with an expected shortage of processing capacity of 1000 ton/day by 2015. 5.2.5 Energy Power plant location, types and electricity grid were listed as confidential information by Ningbo Power Company and were not provided. The power station were found through the internet and marked into GIS layer based on SPOT satellite image. These identified plants mainly distribute outside the core urban areas and most of them are dependent on carbon fuels. Table 5.3: Major Identified Ningbo Power Plants Capacit y Major Power Plants Location Energy (million kW) Zhenhai Zhenhai Thermal 1.05 Beilun Beilun Thermal 5.00 Guohua Ninghai Ninghai Thermal 4.40 Datang Wusha Shan Xiangshan Thermal 47.90 Yuyao Gas-Fired Yuyao Gas-Fired 0.80 Yinglong Shan Natural Gas Yinzhou Natural Gas 2.80 Waste Fenglin Waste Incineration Beilun 0.02 Incineration Waste Zhenhai Waste Incineration Zhenhai 0.02 Incineration LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) Beilun LNG 1.56 Power Plant (under construction) Total 63.56 Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 63 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan Figure 5.11 showed the distribution of power stations which are mainly scattered away from the city central area and lie along the coastline. However, the hazard assessment has pointed that coastal areas might be threatened by strong wind during tropical cyclones, storm surges as well as sea level rise. Securing energy might therefore be taken into account in reducing the City‟s vulernability. Detailed to energy mix in Ningbo, electricity, coal and petroleum (diesel oil, gasoline, fuel oil, kerosene, LPG) are the 2007 Ningbo Energy Consumption by Fuel dominants, accounting for nearly 95% of 2% the energy used. For electricity, majority of 16% it comes from coal as a primary energy. Electricity 36% Likewise, of all types of energy for end- Coke Petroleum use, electricity was mainly generated from Coal coal, resulting in the highest carbon Heat emission coefficient among all energy 43% sources. 3% In terms of energy use, Ningbo belongs to the better-off and high consumption Figure 5.15: Energy Consumption 66 cities like Shanghai, Beijing and by Fuel Guangzhou. The energy per capita is about 140GJ per capita, 2.3 times of national average. By using the average energy intensity at the Zhejiang province to which Ningbo belongs as a proxy, the energy consumption and the energy intensity of Ningbo are estimated. Figures 5.16-5.17 illustrated the results of Ningbo and other key Chinese cities. ï‚· Energy consumption in Ningbo has increased by over 6.2 times from 1990 to 2007, in contrast to 2.5 times for Beijing and 3.2 times for Shanghai in the same period. 4000 Total Energy Consumption in Different Cities Total energy consumption (PJ) 3000 2000 1000 0 1985 1990 1995 Year 2000 2005 Beijing Shanghai Chongqing Ningbo 67,68,69,70 Figure 5.16: Total Energy Consumption in Different Cities ï‚· Since 1990s, the energy per capita of Ningbo has grown much faster than the national average and followed the increasing trajectories of other major cities. Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 64 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan ï‚· In 2007, the figure reached closed to 140 GJ per capita, which is comparable to the level in Beijing. 200 Energy Use per Capita in Different Cities Energy per capita (GJ/Population) 150 100 50 0 1985 1990 1995 Year 2000 2005 2010 Beijing Shanghai Chongqing Ningbo National 67,68,69,70 Figure 5.17: Energy Uses per Capita in Different Cities The use of electricity has increased drastically in Ningbo. ï‚· The amount of electricity use has surged by over 12 times in the past two decades from about 3,000 GWh in 1990 to more than 40,000 GWh in 2009. ï‚· The industrial sector is the biggest consumer followed by the tertiary (mainly transport and communication) and residential consumption sector. Since 1990s, the industrial sector accounted for in average 75% the electricity use in Ningbo. 50000 Ningbo Total Electricty Use Total Electricity Consumption (GWh) 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 Year Industry Tertiary Residential Construction Agriculture Figure 5.18: Total Electricity Use of Ningbo 67 In Ningbo industrial output growth is the most important driving force for energy use and carbon emission increase in the city. The top three highest energy- consumption industries include petroleum processing, coking and nuclear fuel Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 65 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan processing, production and supply of electric and thermal power, ferrous metal smelting and pressing processing industry, amount to about 91% of total energy consumption from heavy industry, while their output share is only about 22% (refer to Table 5.4). Coal contributes to 46% of energy supplied to the industrial sector whereas crude oil amounts to 33%. The overall industrial sector heavily relies on high carbon intensive fossil fuels. Table 5.4: Top Three Energy-Consumed Heavy Industries in 2009 67 Industry Energy Consumption Gross Industrial Output (Mtce) / Percentage of Value (million RMB) / Overall Percentage of Overall petroleum processing, coking and nuclear fuel 38.4 (54.2%) 8.6 (10.4%) processing production and supply of 22.4 (31.6%) 6.0 (7.3%) electric and thermal power ferrous metal smelting and pressing processing 3.6 (5%) 3.6 (4.4%) industry All industrial sectors 70.9 82.7 5.2.6 Vulnerability Summary Analysis Urbanization, increasing population, economic growth and other driving forces increase pressures on the City‟s infrastructure and its ability to meet the growing needs. Initial estimates reveal that replacement values for all buildings and infrastructure at risks within Ningbo is over 40 billion USD, and 23 billion USD respectively. 71 Most notably, the City needs to assure there is sufficient water and energy resources, proper waste management, accessible and convenient transport links, etc. The Ningbo Master Plan and supporting infrastructure plans aim for a stronger and more connected city. However, much more can be done to strengthen the City‟s services in a more sustainable way. Its transportation system could be improved by reducing the private car ownership, increasing public and green transport and eventually relieving traffic congestion and air pollution. Its aging drainage system could be updated to increase the capacity and reduce the risks of urban flooding. Its sole method of dealing with waste through incineration could be diversified and include co-benefits such as energy use. Vulnerability also lies in Ningbo‟s water in terms of the storage, demand, consumption and treatment which will be coherently discussed in later Environment section. While the City is working on improving its infrastructure to address growing demand in various aspects, little has been done with regard to climate change. The City‟s master plans, land use plans, and other infrastructure plans need to take climate change impacts into account, especially for new infrastructure. Strategies need to be formulated to retrofit and replace poor quality infrastructure and buildings in both the city and rural areas. Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 66 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan Given the high energy consumption and increasing growing energy per capita consumption, maintaining energy security in Ningbo is becoming a challenge. Extensive efforts are needed for the City to maximize the energy efficiency and diversity which could not only reduce the city vulnerability but also mitigate climate change effects in the future. Sector Observation Vulnerability Transport • Ninghai needs more • Old existing infrastructure and Planning rainwater storage to meeting growing population combat floods and economic demands and climate change • Cixi with less rainfall has low water storage • Existing infrastructure located in vulnerable areas • The motor vehicles ownership per 100 capita • Limited emergency access in in Ningbo is higher than transport network the national average • Increasing traffic congestion Water, • Around 214km of pipes • Older and insufficient Wastewater are shared by both capacity of drainage system and Waste drainage and sewage • Increase waste disposal and Management • 27 stations have worked wastewater for more than 15 years • Traditional treatment of • By 2020, the wastewater municipal solid wastes in central areas will increase to 1.81million t/d • The central city will generate 1.443 million tons of waste by 2015 • Wastes are either incinerated or land filled. Energy • Extensive carbon fuel • Increasing total energy consumption • Energy consumption has increased by over 6.2 • Growing energy per capita times from 1990 to 2007 consumption • Since 1990s, the energy • Large industrial sector use of per capita has grown much energy faster than the national • Limited and carbon- average intensive energy sources • Heavy industry accounts • Risk of power shortage for 91% of total energy • Energy infrastructure located Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 67 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan Sector Observation Vulnerability consumption in vulnerable areas, such as the coast • Power stations along the coastline might be • Energy efficiency for port, affected by tropical airport, university buildings, cyclones, sea level rise and facilities and and storm surges, etc. retrofitting/renovating old building, etc. Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 68 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan 5.3 Economy 5.3.1 GDP In 2009, the GDP in Ningbo was 421 billion Yuan (about 62 billion USD) with an 8.6% continuous increase rate compared to the year before, contributing to 18.5% of the whole Zhejiang Province. The per capita GDP was 73,998 Yuan (10,833 USD), much higher than the national level and slightly behind Shanghai. Cities 2009 GDP/Capita (USD) by City National Chongqing Wuhan Nanjing Hangzhou Beijing Shanghai Ningbo 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 GDP/Capita (USD) Figure 5.19: GDP per Capita in Different Cities 40,41,42,43,44,45,46,47 Urban areas contributed the highest GDP in 2008 with over 200 billion Yuan, followed by Yinzhou and Cixi, ranging from 50 to 100 billion Yuan. 5.3.2 Key Industries Ningbo has diversified its economy and moved onto secondary and tertiary industries. Among the secondary industries in Ningbo, there are hundreds of large intensive business with five leading sub-sectors, namely petro-chemical, energy, iron and steel, paper making and ship building. These leading sub-sectors‟ output has contributed to more than one quarter of total industrial output of the City. 72 To support further development, Ningbo has established four national scale development zones, one high-tech zone, and 10 provincial and municipal level development zones. 73 Table 5.5: Features of Key Industry in Ningbo Key Industry Economic Weight Main Location Primary (agriculture, 5% of total GDP, a 4.1% rise Xiangshang fishery, forestry, etc) compared to year 2008. Agriculture is the main contributor to total gross output value in the north periphery of the city. Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 69 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan Key Industry Economic Weight Main Location Secondary 53% of total GDP Sub-urban areas such as Yuyao, Cixi and Yinzhou Tertiary (retail, tourism, 42% of total GDP, 2.3% higher Urban Areas commercial, real estate, than year 2008. The retail area transportation and other dominated the tertiary industry, services) with 23%. Despite the vibrant economy, the knowledge of climate change and its impacts are yet limited within the respective industry. Very few plans and actions against climate change have been incorporated in to the private sectors. Particularly, the majority of the secondary industries are heavy industry and energy-consuming. To reduce their emissions and mitigate the impacts to climate change, incentives are required for these greenhouse gas contributors. 5.3.2.1 Agriculture and Food Food security is an important issue in China, and maintaining high levels of self- sufficiency has been a long concern by the central government. Similarly, Ningbo has also sought to increase its food security. The City Master plan (2004-2020) aims to increase its vegetation area. The city plans to have more than 66,700 m2 of vegetable plots near the city. By the end of year 2020, the base will be around 4,000 ha, with a per capita base of 16.7 square meters. This figure conservatively follows Zhejiang Province‟s Vegetable plot Regulation, and is lower than Nanjing and Wuhan at 20 and 26.7 m 2 per capita respectively. 74,75 However, Ningbo is still very dependent on other areas for its food. In 2007, out of the total 3.28 million tons crops, only 22% was produced locally, more than 75% were purchased from other Chinese cities and 2.5% were imported. The total meat, eggs and milk production in 2009 was 0.18 million, 0.1 million and 19.4 thousand tonnes respectively with self-sufficiency rates of 45%, 60% and 25%.76 The low food self-sufficiency rate is not isolated to Ningbo and reflects China‟s greater urbanization and mobilization of population. There is decreasing amount of rural land and number of people willing to work on agriculture. In Ningbo, the number of farmers have decreased from 0.72 million in 2003 to 0.49 million in 2009, a 32% reduction. Similarly for aquaculture, the City is losing fishermen from 70.7 thousand people in 2005 to 63.6 thousand people in 2009, and one of the reasons might come from the polluted waters (shown in the Environment subsection). Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 70 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan 5.3.2.2 Port and Aquaculture Ningbo has 9,758 km2 of marine area, including 531 islands, and 1,562 km of coastline (788 km of mainland coastline and 774 km of island coastline). With comparative advantages like ideal geographic location, good weather, deepwater, developed port functions, etc. the Port now has being an important industry of the City. (Refer to Appendix A for details) Ningbo has eight port areas including Yongjiang, Beilun, Zhenhai, Daxie, Chuanshan, Meishan, Xiangshan and Shipu. At present, with provision of modern, comprehensive and multi- functional facilities, Ningbo Port in 2009 has achieved 38,384 myriad ton in cargo throughput and was rated the second largest cargo port in China and ranked the fourth all over the world. Port development has always being a focus in the city‟s master plan. In the coming 12th Five Year Plan, the city plans to continuously accelerate the construction of an unparalleled international port. Though the development plan for port is ambitious, the programme and plan against extreme events and climate change are limited as the only plan available now is for typhoons. Preparedness on the changing climate, sea level rise and its potential risks has not been taken into account. Worse is the study of the actual impacts are restricted by the missing monitoring data of sea level in Ningbo. The vulnerability of the Port in light of climate change might be a threat to its economy. In addition to the port development, Ningbo‟s geological location and ample water resources have endowed the city with remarkable fish farms in both sea and shallow water. In 2009, the total area for aquaculture is around 630 km2, 57.4% of which are for sea water aquaculture. The fishery industry generated about 9.3 billion Yuan (1.4 billion USD).77 According to the Aquaculture Plan in 2007, northern area like Cixi plan to mainly develop fishery while southern coastal areas like Xiangshan, Fenghua and Ninghai will focus on cultivating crab and crustaceans. Both are promoting the seaweed processing industry, with plans to expand seaweed culture around coastal areas in Xiangshan. Ningbo plans to set up processing parks for aquatic products in Xiangshan, Cixi and Beilun. With the successful connection of Houzhou Bay Bridge, the processing park in Cixi is now able to export the aquatic products to Shanghai. Naturally, most of the aquaculture and fish species is located along the coast of Ningbo. However, this area is also more polluted and prone to sea level rise, Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 71 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan coastal flooding and typhoons. Warmer temperatures will also affect water temperatures, increasing algae, and affect water species. 5.3.2.3 Tourism Ningbo has many tourism attractions that contribute to the tertiary industry. Four national forest parks have been established in Ningbo. Dongqian Lake and Shanglin Lake are also hot spots of tourism. In 2009, the city received 53.1 billion Yuan (7.8 billion USD) in tourism revenue, an increase of 17.8% from year before. Inbound international tourists rose 5.7% to reach 80 million and corresponding income rose 3.8%, generating 3.3 billion Yuan (490 million USD). Inbound domestic tourists numbers and revenue increased 14% and 20% respectively, totalling 50 billion Yuan (7.28 billion USD) for the city. 40 The city has made progress on the improvement and development of tourism, particularly ecotourism which brings considerable positive effects to economy, environment and public awareness of environmental protection. For example, the World Bank GEF Ningbo/Cixi Wetland Park project started construction in 2008. One of its objectives is to link pollution reduction with environmental education, wetland conservation and eco-tourism. The study estimates that the wetland will create around 200,000 potential visitors. 78 However, without consideration of climate change impacts, tourism, particularly wetlands will be affected by the continuing sea level rise and other extreme weather events. 5.3.3 Insurance Similarly like the other Chinese cities, Ningbo‟s insurance system includes social and commercial insurance. Pension, medical, unemployment, work-related injury and maternity insurance are the five main categories of social insurances targeting urban workers in China. To further improve the social medical insurance, China has established urban residents‟ medical insurance in 1998. By the end of 2010, more than 3.5 million urban residents and workers in Ningbo have general medical insurance. This is a 91% participating rate, slightly lower than Beijing (93%) and Wuhan (95.6%). In contrast with the mandatory social insurance, the commercial insurance is a voluntary contract between the insurer and the private insurance companies in China, and is driven by the market profit. Accordingly to the Ningbo Insurance Regulatory Bureau that there are a variety of insurances that provide safeguards to properties, life, and assets from natural disasters. Their compensation schemes vary with the type of insurance, and depend on the economic capacity of the buyers. By the end of 2009, there are 44 insurance company branches in Ningbo. The total premium all year around was 0.53 million Yuan in the City. However, detailed information on these insurances, like the insured population and the specific premiums is not clear. A new insurance program targets six leading natural hazards – earthquake, landslide, flood, tsunami, debris flow, and Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 72 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan typhoon was first launched in the city in 2008. However, detailed information such as participating rate and premium are still unknown. 79 5.3.4 Rural Insurance In 2009, the City had around 3.3 million farmers participate in rural cooperative medical programme, with a rate of 96.7%, slightly lower than Shanghai at 99%. 80,81,82 However, according to the provisions, only a certain percent of medical expenses could be reimbursed, limiting the protections. Additionally, two pilot insurance policies- agriculture and housing- have been developed to protect rural livelihoods against natural disasters. It has been launched in several provinces of China, including Zhejiang Province in 2006. Agricultural insurance covers 17 specific crops and livestock, such as rice, wheat, cows, etc. It aims to reduce the impacts from natural disasters on agriculture and protect rural assets. In 2009, a total of 46.2 thousand farmers purchased insurance in Ningbo. 258.9 million Yuan (37.9 million USD) worth of compensation was distributed to the affected 6,454 farmers that year. Rural housing insurance targets homes affected by natural disasters. In 2009, 1.38 million residents bought the insurance, representing around 99.49% of households. A total of 8.71 million Yuan worth of compensation was given to 2,720 collapsed houses that year. 83 Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 73 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan 5.3.5 Vulnerability Summary Analysis In general, Ningbo‟s economy is relatively strong. The City contributes greatly to Zhejiang Province‟s economy, and has a relatively higher GDP/capita than other Chinese cities and the national average. Its economy is diversifying and moving upscale into higher skilled, knowledge intensive industries. However, like other Chinese cities, there is a growing urban-rural gap in income. Such income disparity is partly related to the growing urbanization rates and floating migrant population. Much more can be done to address this gap. Insurance protections in healthcare and assets are still relatively new and dispersed. Climate change has not been taken into account yet. Port, the city‟s economic pillar, (it was specifically discussed in the Appendix A) will be threatened by climate change impacts and natural disasters, such as sea level rise, storm surges, coastal flooding, etc. But currently its measures still remain typhoon focused. When natural disasters are to be more violent, being a small portion of Ningbo‟s economy, agriculture and food security would become a concern. The vulnerable fishery and aquaculture in coastal areas, as well as tourism would also be susceptible to sea level rise, storm surges and other natural disasters. There is very little on businesses or private sector involvement in climate change preparations and plans. It is unknown to what extent they consider climate change in their decision-makings or financial planning. It is also uncertain that if the government has involved the private sector in its plans and policies related to climate change. Sector Observation Vulnerability Industry • Limited insurance • Limited knowledge of climate coverage of agriculture risks by private sector and housing against • Lack of inclusion in private disasters in rural area sector‟s investment decision- • Limited private insurance making or plans against climate change or • Limited insurance for urban and natural disasters rural residents • Agriculture is not • Port remains typhoon focused equipped with adequate water storage like Cixi, • Food security, fishery and Yuyao aquaculture, as well as tourism threaten from climate risk • Aquaculture has not Incentives prepared for changing • No incentive to the private climate sector to mitigate emissions, particular GHGs • Tourism has been highlighted but without • No incentives to the private consideration of climate sectors to contribute to urban change resilience Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 74 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan 5.4 Environment 5.4.1 Air Quality Ningbo has established comprehensive environmental monitoring systems to capture the environmental parameters all over the city. There are 25 air quality monitoring stations that automatically provide air quality information in real time. In 2009, Ningbo suffered 37 air pollution days, 3 days fewer than 2008. The rate of good or above average air quality days reached 89.9%. However, the acid rain with frequency of 93% to 100% in all six administrative regions is still an issue. The contribution of NOx which commonly arises from industrial and traffic emissions, worsens the acidity of rains. Figure 5.20: Air and Water Monitoring Stations 4 Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 75 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan Ningbo‟s urbanization, industrial activities and built environment are the major factors of producing and trapping a number of air pollutants, resulting in the increase of haze. Since 1997, the number of haze days has increased rapidly. 60 Haze Days 50 40 30 20 10 0 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 Year Figure 5.21: Annual Change of the Number of Days with Haze 3Error! Bookmark not defined. 5.4.2 Water Quality 80 water quality monitoring stations are set up at different sections of the Ningbo‟s water bodies to reflect the surface water quality. In China, surface water quality is divided into five categories in accordance with its environmental function and protection objectives. They were detailed in Table 5.6 below. Table 5.6: Current Water Quality in Ningbo Level Environmental Function & Protection Objectives 84 Lake River Water in Water sources and national nature protection I areas Water in centralized drinking water source, national first- II 70% class protection zones, etc. Centralized drinking water source, national second-class III 22% protection zones, etc. IV Industrial water Mostly V Agricultural water and general water landscaping While lakes are in relatively good condition with 70% at Class II level and 22% at Class III level, the surface water quality of Ningbo, especially the rivers is poor, mainly at Class V to IV levels. By 2009, almost half of Ningbo‟s coastal waters were polluted, with seawater close to the land more polluted than the outer, open seawater. Yongjiang Estuary and Hangzhou Bay are two of the most seriously polluted areas in Ningbo. Main pollutants are inorganic nitrogen and active phosphate. Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 76 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan 5.4.3 Green Space Public green space and forest remain important for the city. Over half of the city is covered by mountains, most of which is located in the southwest area that are rich in fertile soil and suitable for forest. 85 The City puts more than 0.2 billion Yuan (29.3 million USD) in forest development annually. Four national forest parks have been established, as well as a number of provincial and city forest parks. The city currently maintains 12 million m3 of forest growing stocks. 86 Compared to other cities, Ningbo has done well in forest coverage, with 50% coverage rate. 2009 Forest Coverage Cities National Chongqing Wuhan Nanjing Hangzhou Beijing Shanghai Ningbo 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Forest Coverage Figure 5.22: 2009 Forest Coverage in Different Cities 40,41,42,43,44,45,46,47 The green coverage rate in developed area and per capita public green area reached 37.3% and 10.1 m2 respectively in 2009. For per capita green space, Ningbo has a goal of reaching 12 m2 by 2015, and 15 m2 by 2020. 87 Figure 5.23: Green Space in Ningbo Urban Area (2008-2020) 88 However, Ningbo has less green space per capita than most other major Chinese cities. It is more than the national average, but does not stand out among the seven major surveyed cities. Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 77 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan 2009 Public Green Space Per Capita by City Cities National Chongqing Wuhan Nanjing Hangzhou Beijing Shanghai Ningbo 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 Public Green Space Per Capita (sq.m) Figure 5.24: 2009 Public Green Space per Capita in Different Cities 40,41,42,43,44,45,46,47 5.4.4 Vulnerability Summary Analysis It is observed that investment in the environment started bringing fiscal benefits to the city. Ningbo‟s environment provides 15 billion Yuan worth of ecological benefits.89 Its new wetlands will have an ecotourism strategy; and its seas provide food, and other valuable resources. However, the environmental-economic connection remains weak; when the economy is considered, the environment usually suffers. Further, the link between the environment and climate change is weaker. The poor environment, such as air quality can be exacerbated during a heat wave, increasing health incidences. Similarly, a strong environment can lessen the climate change vulnerabilities, such as wetlands in filtering water and reducing flooding. While there are some positive aspects in Ningbo‟s efforts to protect the environment, greater efforts need to be made in light of rapid economic development, climate change impacts, environmental degradation, and population pressures. Its water quality could be improved, especially those rivers flowing through the major areas of the city and formulating the city landscape. Wastewater treatment rate could be further enhanced to better the pollution. The uneven water distribution and relatively low water storage could be improved on account of increasing water demand, intensified droughts and floods. Drainage system should be updated to reduce the risks of urban flooding. Given the sea level continues to rise, works to combat seawater intrusion might be considered in the future. Green space, an effective and cost-friendly strategy to reduce urban heat island effect; manage and filter water and floods; improve air quality; and enhance biodiversity, is not plentiful. Ningbo has less public green space per capita than other major Chinese cities, and its future targets are lacking in comparison. More importantly, economic and population growth are placing a larger strain onto the environment. Increasing vehicle ownership and use are worsening the city‟s air quality. Its port and economic activity are polluting the coastal waters and its corresponding marine species. Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 78 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan Sector Observation Vulnerability Environmental • Per capita public green area is • NOx and acid rain Quality 10.1 m2 issues • Since 1997, the number of haze • Low green space per days has increased rapidly, up to capita 50 days • Increasing haze days Water Quality • The quality of river is mainly at • Poor river quality and Water Class V to IV levels • Poor coastal water Resources • Yongjiang Estuary and quality Hangzhou Bay are heavily • Urban polluted flooding/water • Lake quality- 70% at Class II logging level and 22% at Class III level • Coastal flooding Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 79 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan 5.5 Government 5.5.1 Structure and Leadership As introduced, Ningbo currently has six urban districts, including Haishu, Jiangdong, Jiangbei, Zhenhai, Beilun, and Yinzhou, three county-level cities, comprising Yuyao, Cixi and Fenghua, and two counties, including Xiangshan and Ninghai. Ninghai is the largest area, composing much of the southwest region, while the smallest area is the Haishu district in the upper center which is the centre of the city. There are a total of 78 towns, 11 townships, and 63 sub-district offices. Table 5.7: Ningbo Administrative Units Region Town Township Sub-district Land Area (km2) Offices Haishu - - 8 29 Jiangdong - - 8 34 Jiangbei 1 - 7 208 Beilun 2 1 7 599 Zhenhai 2 - 4 246 Yinzhou 17 1 6 1346 Urban Area 22 2 40 2463 Yuyao 14 1 6 1501 Cixi 15 - 5 1361 Fenghua 6 - 5 1268 Xiangshan 10 5 3 1382 Ninghai 11 3 4 1843 County 56 9 23 7354 Total 78 11 63 9817 Ningbo is under the leadership of Mayor Mr. Qi Liu. The mayor‟s leadership team is comprised of a head that are responsible for the general works of the city and vice heads that lead specified regional divisions. Within the leadership team, there are eight members that take respective responsibilities on different municipal divisions. The central departments at the city level have further branches in accordance with the six districts, three county-level cities and two counties. These branches are responsible for respective regional affairs of the government. At the district and county levels, the leadership structures are similar. Ningbo is supported by more than 40 government departments, each with assigned responsibilities of operation and implementation. Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 80 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan 5.5.2 12th Five Year Plan Ningbo government has prepared the 12th Five Year Plan (2011-2015), which has three main restructuring points: ï‚· Economic- emphasize the development of the tertiary sector, scientific innovation, and creative industries. Continue its successful port development. ï‚· Social- promotes equity in public services, improve infrastructure in villages, and develop new towns. ï‚· Government- improves the quality and availability of public services, and emphasize rule of law and responsible government. In integrating the three goals, Ningbo aims to develop four main areas: urbanization, industrial agglomeration, strategic projects, and large-scale enterprises. Table 5.8: Main Targets in 12th Five Year Plan (2011-2015) 90 Item Targets Value s 1 GDP increase per year 10% 2 Percentage of industry to total GDP ratio 3.5:46.5:50 3 Urbanization rate 70% 4 Urban average income increase and rural average 10% income increase and10.5% 5 Ratio of urban and rural income 2.16:191 A series of large-scale strategic projects have been planned, covering infrastructure, environment, and other aspects. Of the total 660 billion (96.6 billion USD) project investment, 68% (450 billion Yuan, 65.9 billion USD) will be invested during 12th Five Year. 90 Details of these strategic projects are summarized in the following table: Table 5.9: Key Large-Scale Strategic Projects in 12th Five Year Plan 90 Investme Total nt in 12th Project investme Sector Main Elements Five- Type nt Year (0.1 billion Yuan) - Expansion of cultural squares and community centers People Livelihood 500 300 - Improvement of hospital facilities - Expansion of Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 81 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan Investme Total nt in 12th Project investme Sector Main Elements Five- Type nt Year (0.1 billion Yuan) universities and institutions - Information transmission network Infrastructur - Sewage treatment plants 500 300 e and water treatment parks Infrastruct Port and - Development of ure transportatio expressway network 2000 1200 n - Port projects Agricultural - Water catchment and water projects 200 100 conservancy - River regulation projects - Quality improvement of financial centre and Service commercial blocks improvemen 1000 600 - Service expansion of t Economy resorts and tourist attractions Advanced - Expansion of steel manufacturi industry 2000 1800 ng - Desalination project - Pollution control and conservation projects Environme Ecology and - Coastal shelter-belts 400 200 nt environment - Circular economy program Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 82 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan Leadership Team Mayor Mr. QI Liu Vice Executive Vice Mayor Vice Mayor Assistant Mayor Vice Mayor Vice Mayor Vice Mayor Mayor Mr. Yuechong Mr. Renzhou Mayor Assistant Mr. Ms. Hongyi Yu Mr. Yijun Chen Mr. Mingfu Xu Mr. Yong Wang Cheng Wang Mr. Limin Su Jingguo Lin Development Economic and People's Planning and Reform Trade Local Tax Education Public Security Government Bureau (NPB) Sci-tech Bureau Commission Administration Bureau Bureau Office Commission (NDRC) Wireless Human Labor and Social Civil Affairs National Tax Public Health Financial Quarantine Administration Resources Securities Bureau (NCAB) Administration Bureau Bureau (NFB) Office Bureau Bureau Bureau Transportation Water Land Resources Audit Bureau Forestry Bureau Information Agriculture Bureau (NTB) Price Bureau Resources Bureau (NLRB) Industry Bureau Bureau Bureau (NWRB) Foreign Trade Urban Judiciary Construction and Economic Family Planning Supervision Statistics Culture Bureau Management Bureau Bureau (NCB) Cooperation Commission Bureau Bureau Bureau (NUMB) Bureau Prison Industrial and Quality and Environmental Administration Broadcast, Film Commercial News and Press Technology Protection Sports Bureau Tourism Bureau and TV Bureau Administrative Bureau Supervision Bureau Bureau (NEPB) Management Bureau Bureau People's Marine and Meteorology Government Note: The highlighted Fishery Bureau Grain Bureau … Government Bureau (NMB) Foreign Affairs (NMFB) bureaus in green are those Office constitute the climate Departments change taskforce Figure 5.25: Ningbo Government Leadership Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 83 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan 5.5.3 Disaster Risk Management The hazard assessment has noted the City has a different disaster risk profile and faces a variety of different threats of different magnitude. On the other hand, local government is the body that bears the brunt of a disaster or impending disaster and is the first to respond. Therefore, disaster risk management as an activity related to all aspects of government should involve an integrated, multi-sectoral, multi-disciplinary approach to reduce the risk associated with hazards and vulnerability. In terms of the institutional system, Ningbo has set up the municipal office of emergency management, specifically dealing with the public emergencies including natural disasters within the city. A series of emergency plans have been established from municipal level to districts level. There are also specific emergency plans in relation to typhoon, geological hazards, earthquake, fires, etc. (refer to Policy and Program Inventory in Section 6.3 for details of the emergency plans). However, more attentions of the emergency plans are paid to the social emergency such as production safety and social stability. In terms of government actions on disaster risk management, the real-time forecasting works have been progressively improving in Ningbo that helps to reduce the risks in the event of disasters. It is understood that Ningbo Meteorology Bureau is responsible for weather forecast and early warnings of typhoons, storms, and others. Ningbo Water Resources Bureau takes the lead in forecasting floods and droughts and managing these disasters while Ningbo Marine and Fishery Bureau have the responsibility in marine forecast with respect to waves, storm surges and red tides, etc. Though the city has likely comprehensive forecast system in managing the immediately forthcoming disasters, the city barely has or even has taken account of establishing raw databases for further studies or changing climate research. The deficiency of data has been seen in the Hazard Assessment. For example, the city lacks raw data on sea level rise and precipitation, limiting the understanding the risks of changing floods and sea level rise. The inadequate capability in climate change forecasting further restricts the scope of disaster risk management of the City. The hazard assessment has noted that the risks in terms of climate change will pose more threats to the City but current disaster risk management is unlikely to be prepared against them. 5.5.4 Vulnerability Summary Analysis The Ningbo government has provided strong leadership and vision in the city‟s socio- economic development. Their success is shown through the city‟s high and growing GDP, and improved quality of life. However, there is little mention of climate change. Future government policies do not incorporate climate change, nor do the socio-economic plans account for more severe and frequent climate change impacts and natural hazards. There is no overall policy to address or guide the city in combating and preparing for climate change. Interviews with government staff shows little knowledge and training on climate change. As part of the World Bank project, the City formulated a Climate Change Steering Group and Taskforce. Both groups are comprised of different departments in the, Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 84 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan related to climate change. The Steering Group provides the overall vision and leadership, while the Taskforces serves as the working body. WB Climate Change Resilience Ningbo Steering Group Leader Wang Yong (Deputy Mayor) Ye Zhang Chen Wang Deputy Leader Shuangmeng ZhenYue (Municipal Zhongchao Guangxu (NDRC) (NDRC) (NFB) Government ) Zhou Gu Changguo Zhang Yiping Fang xibiao Genqiang (NEO) (NUMB) (NCAB) (NCB) Gu Junqiang Ye Liguang Zhuang Wang Yuee (NMB) (NWRB) Lifeng (NPB) (NTB) Member He Guoqiang Wu Jianyi Li Qichun (NLRB) (NMFB) (NEPB) Figure 5.26: WB Climate Change Resilience Ningbo Steering Group However there is no formal means of communication or sharing information on climate change. The groups meet when needed, and is more an informal, ad-hoc network for now. Certainly the outcome of this report- the Local Resilience Action Plan, along with its recommendations and strategies- will serve as a stronger mandate and roadmap for the group. Moreover, limited education, training, and capacity building opportunities on climate change have been provided. In terms of climate forecast and disaster risk management, it has been recognized that database have not been established for the climate change forecast and climate forecast resources and capability are limited in the City. Sector Observation Vulnerability Governance • Newly setup • Limited defined roles and responsibilities taskforce for on climate change climate change • Limited education and training • No formal opportunities on climate change means of • Limited departmental cooperation on communication climate change or sharing information on • Limited governmental levels (township, climate change district, etc.) cooperation on climate change • Limited education, • Limited or no flows of information on Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 85 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan Sector Observation Vulnerability training, and climate risks capacity • Lack of coordination among departments building opportunities on • Lack of vertical coordination (national, climate change provincial and municipal) on climate change issues Climate • Unavailable • Lack of raw data climate change Forecast and database for parameters, such as sea level rise, etc. Disaster Risk climate change • Need for additional monitoring stations Management parameters for SLR and rainfall patterns • Limited • Climate modelling software and capacity resources for building for correct and effective usage forecasting climate change • Hydro-meteorological modelling Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 86 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan 6 Gap Analysis 6.1 Overview The gap analysis integrated the Hazard Assessment and City Vulnerability Assessment with two extensive inventories- Natural Disaster and Policy and Program to identify the gaps in Ningbo for building resilience. The Natural Disaster Inventory reviewed the major natural disasters, corresponding government actions, and subsequent socio-economic damage. The Policy and Program Inventory reviewed Ningbo‟s current and future policies and programs to understand what has been included / will be addressed in the City‟s socio-economic development, and whether the identified climate change hazards and city vulnerabilities have been/ will be addressed. While climate change is considered in some cases, there are still many missing, conflicting, and overlapping issues to be addressed. There needs to be stronger understanding and incorporation of climate change in City policy and decision- making. Even if current policies address climate change, there is no guarantee that future polices will do so sufficiently, especially in light of greater and more severe identified hazards. 6.2 Natural Disaster Inventory The Natural Disaster Inventory (Appendix B) covered the major, best available natural disasters, their socio-economic damages and the known government actions at the Ningbo City and Zhejiang provincial level. Zhejiang Province‟s socio-economic damage included the City of Ningbo. Such city and regional inclusions allowed for cross comparisons of the scale of impacts and the related government responses. From the available information, all the major, recent identified natural disasters were various degrees of tropical cyclones. In general, most of the damages are centred on residential homes, agriculture, and other hard infrastructures, like roads and communication lines. Tropical cyclones have been marked by a decrease in deaths, but a rise of socio-economic damage in recent years. Given the limited data, it is difficult to obtain the precise losses of the City and greater Province from the natural disasters. It is estimated the total economic damage between 2005 and 2009 to be: ï‚· Ningbo: 10.45 billion Yuan (1.53 billion USD); ï‚· Zhejiang: 45.97 billion Yuan (6.73 billion USD). The rough comparison presents the ideas on the severity of these natural disasters to the City and Province. In view of the damages alone, Ningbo is a more vulnerable city to natural disasters with relatively weak resilience. ï‚· GDP Lost- Ningbo‟s typhoon lost at 23% (10.45/45.97) of the Provincial total, exceeds its total GDP contribution at 19% (refer to City Vulnerability Assessment – Economy Section). Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 87 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan ï‚· Fatalities- Ningbo and Zhejiang lost 17 and 53 people respectively, 32% exceeding its population percentage (14%, refer to City Vulnerability Assessment – People section, the total population in Zhejiang Province by 2009 was 51.8 million92). In the event of natural disasters, government intervention is crucial in protecting families, businesses and communities. For the City of Ningbo, the inventory sees: Strength- ï‚· Government actions are effective prior to the event, which mainly focus on relocating people and ships; ï‚· Early warning systems have been helpful in preventing greater numbers of fatalities or injuries. Gaps- ï‚· From the Hazard Assessment, disasters are likely to become more severe and frequent; ï‚· From the City Vulnerability Assessment, infrastructure needs to be stronger; ï‚· No official public database on natural disasters inventory has been set up in the City; ï‚· Further government action, especially after the disasters are unknown; ï‚· Level and type of resources for Ningbo citizens and businesses are unknown; ï‚· Communication and coordination between government departments and levels are unknown. It is advised that a more comprehensive and public tracking system be in place to better understand and prepare for natural hazards. This could be done through the Civil Affairs Bureau. It is impossible to decrease or eliminate natural disasters, but resilient measures can be taken by the City at all levels and stages to minimize socio- economic damage. Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 88 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan 6.3 Policy and Program Inventory The Policy and Program Inventory reviewed the types of related city policies and programmes that could address City Vulnerabilities and Hazards. It was based on information given, what is available, and represented a strong sample of Ningbo‟s policies and regulations. As policies and programmes span a number of years, it is important to see if it remains as effective with hazard forecasts and future vulnerabilities as with current risks (Figure 6.1). Appendix B covered over 40 different policies. Ningbo’s Vulnerabilities Policies and Programs Current Planned Climate Change Impacts and Other Now No Yes Disaster Future No No Figure 6.1: Summary of Policy and Program Inventory As the policies vary in scope, and may overlap in coverage, it is not simple to organize them. The inventory included the main goals, time frame, funding, lead agency, and additional benefits and challenges. Emergency plans focused on the hazards. Other policies and programmes corresponded with the City Vulnerability Assessment sectors, with some cross-over. For example, the 12th Five Year Plan (FYP) was relevant in all sectors. ï‚· People- This looked at the 12th FYP and urban master plan. ï‚· Infrastructure- This included energy efficiency and renewables from the building level to city scale, as well as water resource and flood management. ï‚· Environment- This reviewed plans to protect the environment and improve greening and biodiversity. ï‚· Economy- this looked at insurance or protection schemes for businesses. ï‚· Government- Limited Capital and operation costs, including how it is funded were difficult to find. In many cases, the information was unavailable, with unclear cost-benefits. The farthest policies go is to year 2020 for the Master plan; most policies are recent and within a couple of years. Responsible parties for the policy vary, but often match the particular bureau‟s mandate. For example, the Public Health Bureau covers public health policies during emergencies, while the Agriculture Bureau has a crop and livestock insurance policy for natural disasters. Generally, there is no policy or plan that is devoted to climate change, although some purposefully or not, do address climate change related issues. Other key findings include: ï‚· Master Plan – 12th FYP is the first five year plan that involves climate change in Ningbo. The City aims to complete Municipal Climate Change Program in Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 89 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan the next five years (2011-2015) and improve the calculation of carbon emission, etc. The inclusion of climate change in the FYP indicates the government is starting to be aware of climate change impacts. However, the work remains at the inception level. Further details like program objectives and implementation have not been formulated. Moreover, as noted previously, the City Master Plan 2020 will have 150,000 more residents and 20 million m2 of built area in 50-year flood zones. ï‚· Emergency Plans - The City has created systematic emergency plans, targeting at natural disasters like typhoon and public health. These emergency plans are helpful, but do not include climate change. ï‚· Rural Community- Though insurance schemes have been developed, protections could be more comprehensive and include climate change impacts. Moreover, vulnerabilities, identified in rural areas like Ninghai and Xiangshan are not specifically addressed. ï‚· Energy- the City is making extensive efforts to save energy on residential and commercial buildings. However, they are highly focused on mitigation measures. Few plans have been made on energy vulnerabilities identified in the City Vulnerability Assessment, such as seeking backup energy. ï‚· Water- Integrated Water Resources Plan has drawn up a comprehensive long- term plan to year 2020 to ensure a balanced water supply and demand, such as increasing reservoirs. However, climate change and its forecast water shortages are not included. ï‚· Floods- Flood has been highlighted in a series of control plans, like Flood Prevention Regulation and Urban River Management Regulation. Drainage systems are to be equipped with flood prevention and disaster risks. Urban flood control is expected to meet 1 in 100-year flood standards and rural areas are asked to meet the flood prevention criteria. Coastal seawalls and river embankments are to be reinforced. Reservoirs, dikes, and channels are to control basin flooding. In addition, further reservoir maintenance and reinforcement are planned. But these plans have not considered the future changing patterns of floods, expected to intensify in the coming decades. Whether the flood standards and enforcement of dykes are able to combat the higher flood peaks are questionable. ï‚· Greening- Greening has been identified to be effective in improving air quality, reducing the risks of floods and minimizing soil erosion. Despite the aims to increase green area outlined in master plan and other plans, Ningbo still lags behind other competing cities. Plans to protect coastal wetland should consider the climate change impacts, particularly sea level rise. Following the sectors of City Vulnerability Assessment, major policies were split accordingly and were summarized in the two tables below to reveal the gaps between the hazards, city vulnerabilities and relevant policies. Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 90 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan Table 6.1: Hazard Gaps Hazards Relevant Policy/ Program Gap Vulnerability Temperature Rise ï‚· Heat Wave Emergency Plan ï‚· Focus on natural disasters ï‚· Lack of raw data climate change parameters, such as sea level rise, etc. ï‚· Public Health Emergency Plan ï‚· No inclusion of climate change and changes of disasters ï‚· Need for additional monitoring stations for Change of Rainfall ï‚· Natural Disaster Emergency Plan SLR and rainfall patterns Patterns ï‚· No plan on climate change monitoring ï‚· Climate modelling software and capacity Likely Increase of Drought ï‚· Natural Disaster Emergency Plan ï‚· No plan on climate change studies or building for correct and effective usage training/capacity building Increase of Heat Waves ï‚· Heat Wave Emergency Plan ï‚· Hydro-meteorological modelling ï‚· Public Health Emergency Plan Increase of Floods ï‚· Natural Disaster Emergency Plan ï‚· Beilun Flash Flood Emergency Plan Increase Intensity of ï‚· Natural Disaster Emergency Plan Typhoons ï‚· Typhoon Emergency Plan Sea Level Rise ï‚· Not Addressed Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 91 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan Table 6.2: City Vulnerability Gaps Sector Relevant Policy/ Program Gap City Vulnerability People Healthcare ï‚· 12th FYP ï‚· Little consideration of climate ï‚· Lower healthcare personnel per capita change ï‚· City Overall Master plan ï‚· Healthcare facilities concentrated in city center ï‚· Focus on disaster and post- ï‚· Limited understanding on health impacts from climate change disaster relief; little on prevention ï‚· Limited data collection on health related effects and climate change ï‚· No data collection, statistics ï‚· Limited public information on health impacts and climate change planned on climate change related impacts and disease Public ï‚· Not addressed ï‚· Education and training ï‚· High commitment, but limited general understanding on climate Knowledge & program mainly on natural change Awareness disaster management ï‚· Limited tools and resources on preparing for and addressing climate ï‚· No inclusion of climate change change ï‚· Limited public information on climate change and its impacts ï‚· Limited education and training programs for climate change Infrastruc Transport and ï‚· 12th FYP: improve transport, ï‚· No inclusion of Design Codes ï‚· Old existing infrastructure meeting growing population and ture Planning drainage system, etc. and Standards on climate risk economic demands and climate change ï‚· Expressway Systems ï‚· Focus more on development ï‚· Existing infrastructure located in vulnerable areas Planning in Central Urban ï‚· Limited emergency and ï‚· Limited emergency access in transport network Area disaster preparedness infrastructure plans Water, ï‚· 12th FYP: improve ï‚· No inclusion of climate change ï‚· Older and insufficient capacity of drainage system Wastewater infrastructure, including in terms of drought and floods ï‚· Increase waste disposal and wastewater and Waste waste treatment, wastewater into the plans, threatening Management treatment, etc. water resources ï‚· Traditional treatment of municipal solid wastes Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 92 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan Sector Relevant Policy/ Program Gap City Vulnerability ï‚· Integrated Water Resources Plan ï‚· Rural Sewage Treatment Plan ï‚· Recovery/recycling Facilities Plan in Ningbo Central City Energy ï‚· 12th FYP: energy saving and ï‚· Focus is on mitigation ï‚· Increasing total energy consumption low GHG emission, ï‚· Growing energy per capita consumption exploration of renewable energy ï‚· Large industrial sector use of energy ï‚· Energy Saving Ordinance and ï‚· Limited and carbon-intensive energy sources Practices in Building ï‚· Risk of power shortage ï‚· Application of Solar Energy ï‚· Energy infrastructure located in vulnerable areas, such as the coast and Carbon Alternatives ï‚· Energy efficiency for port, airport, university buildings, and facilities and retrofitting/renovating old building, etc. Economy Industry ï‚· Agricultural Insurance ï‚· Focus is on mitigation ï‚· Limited knowledge of climate risks by private sector ï‚· Rural Housing Insurance ï‚· Insurance coverage not ï‚· Lack of inclusion in private sector‟s investment decision-making or Policy mandatory plans ï‚· Urban Insurance ï‚· Limited insurance for urban and rural residents ï‚· Port remains typhoon focused ï‚· Food security, fishery and aquaculture, as well as tourism threaten from climate risk Incentives ï‚· Not Addressed ï‚· No involvement of private ï‚· No incentive to the private sector to mitigate emissions, particular sector in decision making GHGs Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 93 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan Sector Relevant Policy/ Program Gap City Vulnerability ï‚· No involvement of private ï‚· No incentives to the private sectors to contribute to urban resilience sector in building urban resilience Environ Environmental ï‚· 12th FYP: efforts on ï‚· Limited climate change plans ï‚· NOx and acid rain issues ment Quality improving environmental for cultural heritage ï‚· Low green space per capita quality ï‚· Conservative plan on green ï‚· Increasing haze days ï‚· City Overall Master plan: space public green to 12m2 green space /capita by 2020 ï‚· Eco-city Construction Plan ï‚· Xiangtan Port Ecological and Environmental Protection ï‚· Wetland Protection and Utilization Plan ï‚· Green Regulations Water Quality ï‚· 12th FYP ï‚· No inclusion of climatic risks ï‚· Poor river quality & Water ï‚· City Overall Master Plan ï‚· Focus on water pollution ï‚· Poor coastal water quality Resources mitigation ï‚· Integrated Water Resources ï‚· Urban flooding/water logging Plan ï‚· Coastal flooding ï‚· River Management Regulations ï‚· Green Regulations Governm Governance ï‚· Not Addressed ï‚· Limited integration of Climate ï‚· Limited defined roles and responsibilities on climate change Change into government plans Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 94 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan Sector Relevant Policy/ Program Gap City Vulnerability ent and policy-making ï‚· Limited education and training opportunities on climate change ï‚· Limited institutional ï‚· Limited departmental cooperation on climate change framework on climate change ï‚· Limited governmental levels cooperation on climate change ï‚· Limited or no flows of information on climate risks ï‚· Lack of coordination among departments ï‚· Lack of vertical coordination on climate change issues Climate ï‚· Not Addressed ï‚· Limited application of ï‚· Lack of raw data climate change parameters Forecast and modelling work to policy- ï‚· Need for additional monitoring stations for SLR and rainfall patterns Disaster Risk making Management ï‚· Climate modelling software and capacity building for correct and ï‚· Limited work on database effective usage establishment and climate and hydro-meteorological ï‚· Limited Hydro-meteorological modelling modelling Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 95 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan 6.4 Summary Most of the vulnerabilities identified in the Hazard and City Vulnerability Assessments are not fully addressed by current government actions for natural disasters, or policies and programs. Climate change is not fully understood or incorporated into decision and policy making. Information is limited. Collecting and applying more accurate and updated climate related data are necessary for more effective preparations and use of limited city resources. Sector Vulnerability Addressed or Not People Healthcare Partially Public Knowledge and Awareness No Infrastructure Transport and Planning Partially Waste and Wastewater Partially Energy Partially Economy Industry Partially Incentives No Environment Environmental Quality Partially Water Quality and Water Resources Partially Government Governance Partially Climate Forecast and Disaster Risk No Management Overall, the gap analysis confirmed and integrated the vulnerabilities in the hazard and city vulnerability assessment. The next step was to develop a list of recommendations for each remaining issues on the target vulnerabilities threatened by the risks. These recommendations are either to strengthen current management or propose new initiatives for Ningbo to consider. Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 96 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan 7 Recommendations 7.1 Overview Based on the hazard and city vulnerability assessment results, as well as the gap analysis, the recommendations proceeded to build city resilience and reduce the vulnerabilities. The main actions directly respond to the sectors: People, Infrastructure, Environment, Economy, and Government. Each sector‟s vulnerabilities were reviewed again, and followed by a list of recommendations for Ningbo to prioritize and implement as part of the Local Resilience Action Plan. Notably, the Inventory of Programs and Policies showed what has and will be done by the City and its main agencies. This greatly helped the team formulate realistic actions on what the City is able to do. Each area has two main recommendations, followed by specific actions or proposals. In total, there are over 70 specific proposals for Ningbo to discuss and prioritize. This is the starting point to increase the City‟s resilience against climate change and natural disasters. Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 97 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan VULNERABILITY RECOMMENDATIONS PEOPLE Healthcare • Lower healthcare personnel per • Develop and Maintain Data/Statistics on Climate Change capita and Health • Healthcare facilities concentrated • System Training and Education on Collecting, in city center Managing, Analyzing, and Using the Health and Climate • Limited understanding on health Change Data impacts from climate change • Increase Research on Climate Change Impacts on Health • Limited data collection on health • Increase Research Connections and Network with other related effects and climate Universities and Cities Studying Health and Climate change Change • Limited public information on • Increase Recruitment of Healthcare Practitioners health impacts and climate • Increase Healthcare Facilities or Access outside the City change Center • Increase Education and Training for Healthcare Practitioners to Prevent and Deal with Climate Change- induced Health Impacts • Increase Education and Knowledge on Public Health and Climate Change Public Knowledge and Awareness • Instill Climate Change into the School Curriculum and • High Commitment, but limited Practice general understanding on climate • Develop Public Climate Change Hotline change • Develop Climate Change Website and other Social • Limited tools and resources on Media Tools preparing for and addressing • Develop Climate Change Centre climate change • Develop Wider Education and Outreach • Limited public information on climate change and its impacts • Disseminate Targeted Information to Vulnerable and Key Groups • Limited education and training programs for climate change • Develop Climate Change Volunteers • Increase Accessibility to Real Time Information • Strengthen Real Time Information INFRASTRUCTURE Transport and Planning • Old existing infrastructure • Review Current Plans meeting growing population and • Implement Stronger Design and Construction Standards economic demands and climate and Codes for New Built change • Prevent New Built in Most Vulnerable Areas • Existing infrastructure located in • Strengthen Retrofit & Reinforcement in Vulnerable vulnerable areas Areas • Limited emergency access in • Resettle Population and Activities with Highest transport network Vulnerability • Develop and Increase Training and Education on Stronger Building Codes and Design, and Retrofit Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 98 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan • Enforce Stronger Building Codes and Retrofit • Increase Research on Retrofit Strategies • Develop Training for Those Building Operators and Property Managers • Enhance Transport Planning with Better Connectivity • Enhance Emergency Infrastructure/Disaster Risk Management Waste and Wastewater • Older and insufficient capacity of • Upgrade the Drainage System drainage system • Increase Pumping Stations • Increase waste disposal and • Source Separation of Waste, Recycling, and Reusing wastewater • Waste-to-Energy • Traditional treatment of municipal solid wastes Energy • Increasing total energy • Strengthen Backup Energy consumption • Protect Energy Infrastructure • Growing energy per capita • Maximize Energy Efficiency consumption • Industry Energy Plan • Large industrial sector use of • Education on Energy Demand Management energy • Energy Monitoring and Real-time Information • Limited and carbon-intensive energy sources • Diversify Energy Sources • Risk of power shortage • Increase Research on Clean Technologies and Renewable Energy • Energy infrastructure located in vulnerable areas, such as the • Cost Benefit Analysis for Alternative and Renewable coast Energy • Solar Power Feasibility Study • Energy efficiency for port, airport, university buildings, and • Wind Power Feasibility Study facilities and retrofitting/renovating old building, etc. ECONOMY Industry • Limited knowledge of climate • Implement Port Resilience Plan risks by private sector • Implement Agricultural Resilience Plan • Lack of inclusion in private • Implement Fishery Resilience Plan sector‟s investment decision- • Improve Insurance System making or plans • Undertake Targeted Education and Training • Limited insurance for urban and rural residents • Increase Public Private Partnership • Port remains typhoon focused • Food security, fishery and aquaculture, as well as tourism threaten from climate risk Incentives Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 99 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan • No incentive to the private sector • Develop Incentives (fiscal) for GHGs Emissions to mitigate emissions, particular Reduction GHGs • No incentives to the private sectors to contribute to urban resilience ENVIRONMENT Environmental Quality • NOx and acid rain issues • Promote Greening (Also helps with flooding, water • Low green space per capita filtration and treatment) • Increasing haze days • Implement Cultural and Heritage Resilience Plan • Implement Biodiversity Resilience Plan Water Quality and Water Resources • Increase Reservoirs • Poor river quality • Increase Urban Rainwater Harvesting • Poor coastal water quality • Conduct Water Pollution Control Program • Urban flooding/water logging • Separate Sewage from Drainage Network • Coastal flooding • Increase Water Saving Devices and Monitoring • Replace Older Pumping Stations • Water Leakage Detection Scheme • Implement Demand Management • Integrate Climate Change Risk into Water Resource Master Plan for 2020 • Undertake Future Flood Planning • Expand Channels and Improve Storm Water Drainage in Flood Risk Areas • Introduce Schemes to Combat Salinity GOVERNMENT Governance • Limited defined roles and • Determine Climate Change Taskforce Mission and responsibilities on climate Formal Role change • Diversify Climate Change Taskforce Group Membership • Limited education and training • Outline Clear Roles and Responsibilities on Climate opportunities on climate change Change for Government Departments and Levels • Limited departmental • Increase and Share Climate Change Research and cooperation on climate change Information • Limited governmental levels • Connect with Peer Network cooperation on climate change • Increase Training on Disaster Risk Management • Limited or no flows of information on climate risks • Lack of coordination among departments • Lack of vertical coordination on climate change issues Climate Forecast and Disaster Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 100 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan Risk Management • Lack of raw data climate change • parameters • Strengthen Hydro Meteorology and Geophysical • Need for additional monitoring Modeling stations for SLR and rainfall • Enhance GIS and Spatial Tools patterns • Increase Resources for Disaster Risk Management • Climate modeling software and Develop Academic Courses on Climate Change capacity building for correct and Modeling and Scenario Building effective usage • Limited Hydro-meteorological modeling Of the total 70 plus recommendations, part were prepared for addressing the overall city‟s vulnerabilities and the others were developed specifically to deal with the various risks and vulnerabilities at different areas. Districts Hazards Risks Recommendations Urban ï‚· Urban flood ï‚· Upgrade the Drainage System District ï‚· Land subsidence ï‚· Increase Pumping Stations (including ï‚· High likely heat waves ï‚· Promote Greening Three ï‚· Increase Urban Rainwater Harvesting River City ï‚· Separate Sewage from Drainage Network District) ï‚· Replace Older Pumping Stations ï‚· Introduce Schemes to Combat Salinity Yuyao ï‚· Heavy storm during tropical ï‚· Strengthen Retrofit & Reinforcement in cyclones Vulnerable Areas ï‚· Prone to flash floods and ï‚· Enforce Stronger Building Codes and landslides Retrofit Cixi ï‚· Drought ï‚· Strengthen Retrofit & Reinforcement in ï‚· Land subsidence Vulnerable Areas ï‚· Sea level rise ï‚· Increase Reservoirs ï‚· Introduce Schemes to Combat Salinity Fenghua ï‚· Heavy storm during tropical ï‚· Strengthen Retrofit & Reinforcement in cyclones Vulnerable Areas ï‚· Prone to flash floods and ï‚· Enforce Stronger Building Codes and landslides Retrofit Xiangshan ï‚· Typhoon ï‚· Strengthen Retrofit & Reinforcement in ï‚· Drought Vulnerable Areas ï‚· Enforce Stronger Building Codes and Retrofit ï‚· Increase Reservoirs Ninghai ï‚· Great Rainfall ï‚· Strengthen Retrofit & Reinforcement in ï‚· Heavy storms during tropical Vulnerable Areas cyclones ï‚· Enforce Stronger Building Codes and Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 101 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan Districts Hazards Risks Recommendations ï‚· Floods Retrofit ï‚· Landslides ï‚· Increase Reservoirs ï‚· Higher temperature increase ï‚· Develop Climate Change Centre In general, the recommendations were proposed for the city to build its resilience and address its vulnerabilities/risks from different aspects and through different strategies. The following sections presented the details of each recommendation with reference to the respective vulnerabilities identified in the separate city sectors. Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 102 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan 7.2 People Demographic shifts will result in a growing, older, and more transient population. Continuous economic growth sees a rapid population expansion and urbanization. However, there have been little corresponding programs or policies to adapt the growing population against climate change, particularly on Public Health and Public Knowledge. 7.2.1 Public Health Vulnerabilities Specific Public Health Vulnerabilities include: ï‚· Lower healthcare personnel per capita; ï‚· Healthcare facilities concentrated in city center; ï‚· Limited understanding on health impacts from climate change; ï‚· Limited data collection on health related effects and climate change; ï‚· Limited public information on health impacts and climate change. 7.2.2 Recommendations to Improve Public Health Recommendations to improve public health are below. Most of these should be led by or include the Public Health Bureau. ï‚· Develop and Maintain Data/Statistics on Climate Change and Health- This database should collect past, current, and future statistics on public health under different extreme weather events and natural disasters. Besides the common diseases, data collection on climate related diseases like heat stress/stroke, asthma rates, and vector/water borne diseases should be included. ï‚· System Training and Education on Collecting, Managing, Analyzing, and Using the Health and Climate Change Data- This should include epidemiologists, Public Health Bureau officials, health care practitioners, and emergency workers. Further study on the database system and tools are required. ï‚· Increase Research on Climate Change Impacts on Health- This should be in close partnership with Public Health Bureau, local university and, public health institutions and related organizations. Research should include understanding on how extreme weather events, such as heat waves, air pollution-related mortality and morbidity, affect human health, and the best ways to prevent and address it. Further study should be done on vulnerable groups such as the floating population, elderly, and children, and other social sectors. ï‚· Increase Research Connections and Network with other Universities and Cities Studying Health and Climate Change- Ningbo can share research findings, tools, and methodologies with other universities and research centers, and learn about their respective work and findings. Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 103 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan ï‚· Increase Recruitment of Healthcare Practitioners- This includes employing more experienced and junior doctors, nurses, technicians for the growing and densely populated city center, and spreading them further out to the smaller health care centers in the city periphery. It also includes attracting more trained volunteer healthcare and emergency workers. ï‚· Increase Healthcare Facilities or Access outside the City Center- Healthcare facilities should be carefully planned and developed throughout the whole city, taking account of the growing population and the distribution of vulnerable segments. This could include mobile or smaller and more versatile healthcare units/stations to rapidly aid the area population in times of emergency, particularly the rural areas threatened by natural disasters but with inadequate healthcare facilities, like Ninghai and Xiangshan. This minimizes the burdens of the main hospitals in the city center and directs only the most serious cases to them. ï‚· Increase Education and Training for Healthcare Practitioners to prevent and Deal with Climate Change-induced Health Impacts- Healthcare practitioners should incorporate climate change into their medical education and ongoing training and practice. They should have access to the latest research and data on climate change and health, be able to feed their experiences back into the data and research. ï‚· Increase Education and Knowledge on Public Health and Climate Change- Greater communications and campaigns should be done to reach out to the public and increase their knowledge, especially on prevention and tools and resources to access. 7.2.3 Public Knowledge Vulnerabilities Specific Public Knowledge Vulnerabilities include: ï‚· High commitment, but limited general understanding on climate change; ï‚· Limited tools and resources on preparing for and addressing climate change; ï‚· Limited public information on climate change and its impacts; ï‚· Limited education and training programs for climate change. 7.2.4 Recommendations to Enhance Public Knowledge To equip the public with relevant climate change risk knowledge, to build prevention and response capacity, and to ensure up-to-date and accurate information is quickly accessed and disseminated throughout the disaster lifecycle, Ningbo needs to increase public‟s knowledge on climate change. The public should automatically know where to get the information, frequently check it for updates, and be able to feedback their input or ask questions. Education should be conducted at all levels of society. The public should be empowered with knowledge to support Ningbo‟s climate resilience. These recommendations should be done in close conjugation with the Climate Change Taskforce. Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 104 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan ï‚· Instill Climate Change into the School Curriculum and Practice- Students should be taught about climate change science, its impacts, and how best to prevent and address it. Children from a young age must understand the warning information and perils to which their communities are exposed, as well as the appropriate response behaviors, such as during practice drills. Therefore, themes of climate change and concept of mitigation and adaptation should be introduced as a continuing theme in regular classes and extracurricular activities. Seniors should be shown the career opportunities related to climate change. In addition, government might continue to work with many stakeholders to support learning about climate change, through the provision of curriculum-linked learning resources and professional learning opportunities. ï‚· Develop Public Climate Change Hotline- The public should be able to ask questions or get more information about climate change related matters, including tips on prevention. They should be able to feedback information on related policies or ongoing programs, as well as suggestions and ideas. Education and ongoing training should be conducted for those manning the hotlines. ï‚· Develop Climate Change Website and other Social Media Tools- This will be a place to host the latest and most extensive climate change information, including related policies and programs, studies and research, and climate forecasts and extreme weather events. As forecasting, also included should be early warning systems, disaster prone areas, past extreme weather events and natural disasters, the location of emergency shelters. ï‚· Develop Climate Change Centre- Accessible and open places should be made where the public can go to collect and share information, speak with experts and link with other like-minded individuals. The center can also engage in community activities and programs, such as hosting climate change related talks and events. Education and ongoing training should be conducted for those operating the centre. Centers can be placed initially in the target areas, and other vulnerable areas in the city, such as the south in Ninghai. The place could be in existing buildings, such as hospitals, community centers, schools, etc. ï‚· Develop Wider Education and Outreach- Reach out to the local community in Ningbo through multiple channels and long term programs aimed at all levels including senior-citizen and community centers, and hospitals. This includes a public campaign, utilizing the local media, and producing communications material, such as leaflets or brochures. Such material should also be available in the Climate Change Centre and website. The climate change hotline and website information should be included in all material and widely distributed. ï‚· Disseminate Targeted Information to Vulnerable and Key Groups such as: o Farmers on how to address climate change for their crops and livestock Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 105 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan o Fishermen on how to address climate change for their fisheries and aquaculture o Elderly on emergency preparedness including safe and efficient evacuation o Tourists on what to do in an emergency, locations of emergency shelters, how to get information from hotline and website. This would be working closely with the Tourist Bureau and industry, such as hotels o Floating population on resources and tools on preparing and addressing climate change ï‚· Develop Climate Change Volunteers- It is suggested to train interested individuals in education outreach on addressing climate change, especially to the vulnerable or hard-to-reach population groups, like rural population in Ninghai and Xiangshan. They can initiate regular community programs such as art, games and competitions on climate change, working closely with the climate change center and utilizing the website and social media. Selected, trained volunteers can also aid during emergencies. ï‚· Increase Accessibility to Real Time Information- This information, such as forecasting, early warning systems, disaster prone areas, past extreme weather events and natural disasters should be readily accessible to the public through multiple medias. Mobile phones could be used in providing early warnings. ï‚· Strengthen Real Time Information - Forecasting, early warning, and monitoring facilities should be improved and expanded, especially rainfall and sea level monitoring stations. Information should be easily accessible to the public, such as early warning system alerts or nearest emergency shelter (GPS oriented) or evacuation route on their mobile. 7.3 Infrastructure Ningbo should take an integrative role to ensure that risks are properly incorporated into its physical infrastructure design, construction and operation. The two main infrastructure vulnerabilities and corresponding recommendations involve Existing and Future Infrastructure and Transportation and Energy Security. 7.3.1 Planning and Transport Vulnerability Specific infrastructure vulnerabilities of the City include: ï‚· Older, existing infrastructure meeting growing population and economic demands and climate change; ï‚· Existing infrastructure located in vulnerable areas; ï‚· Limited emergency access in transport network. In view of the policies and programs, they are lacking: Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 106 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan ï‚· Master plan, transport, and other infrastructure plans and policies do not address climate change; ï‚· Design Codes and Standards not inclusive of climate risk; ï‚· Transport plans focus ground transportation; ï‚· Limited emergency and disaster preparedness infrastructure plans. 7.3.2 Recommendations for Integrated Planning and Transport Ningbo government, along with private developers, contractors, and others involved in infrastructure should play in active role in addressing climate change. This includes enhancing resilience of new infrastructure, buildings and services; guiding where development should and should not take place; identifying and retrofitting at risky infrastructure. Much of this involves the Construction Bureau and Planning Bureau. ï‚· Review Current Plans– It is known that the City Master Plan 2020 may expose risk to more people and infrastructure. Therefore, further review of the plan prior to the development is advised. Additional measures or prohibitions would need to be done to ensure overall development is sound. ï‚· Implement Stronger Design and Construction Standards and Codes for New Built- All new structures in hazard-prone areas, such as Ninghai in risks of landslide and flooding and Xiangshan with threaten of typhoons should adhere to stronger building and design codes or through an efficient code improvement plan (e.g. raise the designation of minimum floor elevations, piling depths and bracing requirements, etc). The codes should be written with unified approaches to avoid conflicting clauses with clear definitions for buildings with different categories of importance. There is a need for corresponding design institutes to follow specified sea level/natural hazard thresholds or indicators as a basis for setting coastline building rules for set-back and elevation. The Construction Bureau should engage consultancies and international experiences in regularly reviewing and updating of relevant planning and building codes to meet climate risk. ï‚· Prevent New Built in Most Vulnerable Areas- During the design stage of new buildings; the first step to reduce risk is to follow an integrated planning and study process by using lower risky locations. The Planning Bureau should be aware of the climate change risk, and avoid or better prepare selecting sites for development. For instance, mountainous areas highly susceptible to landslides and flash floods should avoid intensive constructions or excavations for any development, tunnels or traffic lines. The Planning Bureau should be given access to the latest climate change and spatial data from Ningbo Meteorology Bureau. Hazard map should be served as a reference during the planning. ï‚· Strengthen Retrofit & Reinforcement in Vulnerable Areas - Vulnerable existing buildings and infrastructure should be identified in a planning program or rectification program. Retrofitting of existing Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 107 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan buildings/infrastructure should be planned and implemented in stages; not only to suit the differing priorities from areas and types of buildings, but also to reduce the financial and resources pressures on the authorities from implementing all measures in one go. Priority will be given to the areas with the highest vulnerability and demand for the basic infrastructure provisions. For instance, those buildings with public significance such as hospitals, food storage facilities, educational and institutional buildings. Attention will be also located at highly vulnerable areas, like Cixi in risk of sea level rise, Ninghai in risk of various natural disasters, and Three River City District in risk of floods. ï‚· Resettle Population and Activities with Highest Vulnerability- Land- use zoning in accordance with hazard zoning needs to be developed, so as to gradually de-concentrate population and economic activities within high-hazard areas. Resettlement needs to be done carefully, involve close stakeholder engagement and financial considerations for those affected. ï‚· Develop and Increase Training and Education on Stronger Building Codes and Design, and Retrofit - This should be done with the Construction Bureau and targeted at professionals in the buildings and construction industry, including architects, urban designers, engineers, surveyors, etc. Climate change should be included in professional education for student engineers and architects. Continuing Professional Education should be led by membership groups such as Institute of Engineers. ï‚· Enforce Stronger Building Codes and Retrofit- The Construction Bureau and Planning Bureau, with related departments should enhance supervision of construction and building end-use to ensure that buildings are built and operated to better withstand natural hazards, such as flooding and strong wind in Xiangshan area. Government officials should be trained to monitor and enforce the design and building codes. ï‚· Increase Research on Retrofit Strategies- More research on improving retrofit construction techniques such as more robust connections is needed. Various building materials and methods should be studied for suitable application and specific local use. This will be done in conjugation with local research institutes and universities, engineers and other professional organizations, and their respective international counterparts. ï‚· Develop Training for Those Building Operators and Property Managers- Building operators and property managers should be trained in emergency preparedness and disaster risk management, especially in the vulnerable areas, such as the port in facing more severe typhoons. They should know the locations of emergency facilities and be able to manage the emergency resources, take responsibility during emergency. ï‚· Enhance Transport Planning with Better Connectivity- The transport strategy should comprise of three levels- demand reduction, emission reduction and transport diversification. Safety, efficiency and quality of the current public transportation system should be further enhanced to reduce the number of private vehicles and relieve congestion. Policies should be in place to strategically incentivize transition from fossil fuel to Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 108 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan low-carbon fuel or renewable. Meanwhile, necessary facilities and hardware to encourage the use of low or zero-emission vehicles (e.g. electric vehicle charging facilities and conveniently located alternative fuelling stations) should be enabled. Congestion could be further improved by a careful planning with provision of excavation routes for emergency use, particularly in the core urban area. ï‚· Enhance Emergency Infrastructure/Disaster Risk Management- For transport, this includes publicly known duplicate access of roads; walk and waterways. The public should know and be able to safely travel to emergency shelters; medical vehicles should have a fast route to the hazard zone; and there should be an effective way to clear priority transport paths. Communications and back-up communications should be heavily connected during emergency for up to date information. Food storage facilities and other key infrastructure should be placed higher ground food storage facilities. Like the Daqi emergency shelter, the location of emergency operations centre with minimal vulnerability to the most common hazards in the area should be defined and communicated broadly. 7.3.3 Waste and Wastewater Specific waste water and waste management systems vulnerabilities include: ï‚· Older and insufficient capacity of drainage system; ï‚· Increasing waste disposal and wastewater; ï‚· Traditional treatment of municipal solid wastes. 7.3.4 Recommendations to Wastewater and Waste Treatment The recommendation is to further improve the wastewater and waste treatment to reduce the potentially induced risks, like the urban flood due to the overload of combined drainage system with wastewater pipes. This could be led by the Urban Management Bureau. The specific recommendations include: ï‚· Upgrade the Drainage System – Before upgrading the drainage system, the careful inspections of the city‟s drains system including pump houses should be undertaken to comprehensively capture the current conditions of the system. Priority should be given to high flood risk areas, like Three River City District which has a large portion of shared sewer-drainage line. Regular cleaning and maintenance of the system should be required. ï‚· Increase Pumping Stations – Pumping stations should be upgraded and increased to ensure continuous operation, relieve the load of existing facilities and reduce the risks of malfunction, particularly the stations in older city regions that have been in the service for more than 15 years and gradually aged. ï‚· Source Separation of Waste, Recycling and Reusing – Wastes should be separated from the source and recycled and reused as far as possible to reduce the load of landfill and consumption of resources and energy. The government agencies could issue handbooks on separation, recycle/reuse to the industry and public. Facilities like waste sorting bins should be Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 109 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan provided to the public. Trainings and education in the field of waste management should also be implemented at community level to raise public‟s awareness in waste management. ï‚· Waste-to-Energy – Waste-to-energy is an alternative to carbon fuel energy in aiding reducing the carbon emissions. Research on its technology and application could be worked together with local universities and institutes. Ningbo government could also search for the cooperation with international organizations and best available practices. 7.3.5 Energy Vulnerability Specific energy vulnerabilities include: ï‚· Increasing total energy consumption; ï‚· Growing energy per capita consumption; ï‚· Large industrial sector use of energy; ï‚· Limited and carbon-intensive energy sources; ï‚· Risk of power shortage; ï‚· Energy infrastructure located in vulnerable areas, such as the coast; ï‚· Energy efficiency for port, airport, university buildings, and facilities and retrofitting/renovating old building, etc. Ningbo‟s policy and program focus more on energy saving. Few initiatives have started on exploring alternative renewable energy. 7.3.6 Recommendations to Improve Energy Security The other recommendation is to further accelerate the transition from fossil fuel to low-carbon energy, as well as enhance level of safety and reliability of electricity supply. NDRC should be the lead or closely involved. The Team therefore made the following particular recommendations: ï‚· Strengthen Backup Energy- Backup of utility supply sources and duplication of line including electricity supply and communication for critical services are strategically important. Key examples include hospitals, food storage centers, emergency shelters, and government offices. Ningbo should identify and prioritize which areas and services are needed during disaster, and ensure there is adequate backup energy and plans to support them. ï‚· Protect Energy Infrastructure- To maintain stable energy supply, there should be a plan to protect energy infrastructure and avoid building new energy infrastructure in high risk areas, such as low-lying coasts where are susceptible to increasing coastal flooding, typhoon and sea level rise. ï‚· Maximize Energy Efficiency- Ningbo has already implemented multiple policies and programs on energy saving and emission reduction in different aspects (See Inventory of Policy and Program), energy efficiency and emissions reduction can be further realized through Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 110 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan building retrofit, improved energy design codes, and demand management to meet the total energy supply. ï‚· Industry Energy Plan- Industrial sector takes up more than 75% of the energy consumption in Ningbo. A specific plan should be implanted and include requirements of electrical equipments/appliances, adopting green architectural design measures, and incorporating an industry energy management system. Ningbo government could aid the implementation of energy plan by the way of institutional and financial measures. ï‚· Education on Energy Demand Management- In view of the growth of municipal energy consumption, the public should be better educated on energy consumption and demand management. This includes behavioral change on energy, utilizing energy saving devices, and limiting energy use. This can be done in conjugation with the public knowledge strategy from the People section. ï‚· Energy Monitoring and Real-time Information- Energy monitoring devices should be more widely used and available in public and private buildings and residential homes. Tracking real time energy use has been shown to be effective in changing behavior and limiting energy use. ï‚· Diversify Energy Sources- In the long run, Ningbo‟s energy supply should be diversified. Energy diversification helps to protect Ningbo against supply disruptions and fluctuations in fuel prices. Ningbo should integrate a mixture of energy supplies, as well as a range of technologies and fuel types. The government should consider providing necessary incentives for power companies, developers and households to promote wider use of renewable energy, both in government projects and in the private sectors. A first step in this would be to conduct a feasibility study on Ningbo‟s renewable energy potential. ï‚· Increase Research on Clean Technologies and Renewable Energy- Greater research should be done on clean technologies and renewables from the building to city level. This should be done in close partnership with local universities and research centers, leveraging the wider research network. ï‚· Cost Benefit Analysis for Alternative and Renewable Energy- It is forecasted that technically viable options such as solar, wind and waste-to- energy will become more commercially viable and the large scale application more visible. A cost benefit analysis should be done on alternative and renewable energy, compared to traditional energy sources to determine the level of financial incentives needed and policies required to promote greater use. ï‚· Solar Power Feasibility Study- Ningbo is in the third solar zone with about 1050-1400kWH/m2 of solar radiation. The average daily radiation is about 3-4 kWh/m2. The sunlight time in the Ningbo different regions does not show a big contrast; percentage difference is within 10% with annual 1,800 to 2,000 sunlight hours. In 2009, the electricity consumption is 40,025GWh. Typical solar panels have an efficiency of about 10%, expensive ones perform at 20%. Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 111 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan Assuming 15% efficient PV panels are used and the highest value of the range of solar irradiation, it requires: (40025x106 kWh /1400 kWh/m2) /15% = 190.6km2 The area of whole Ningbo is 9,817 km2 and the urban area is 2,462km2. Therefore, if one needs to convert fossil fuel based electricity generation in Ningbo to Figure 7.1: Annual3Hours of solar-based, around 7.7% of urban area Sunshine in Ningbo needs to be covered with 15% efficient panel; comparing to the size of standard football field, 190.6km2 is also roughly equal to 25,000 numbers of football field. Further solar power feasibility study is recommended, especially for the north with most hours of sunlight. ï‚· Wind Power Feasibility Study- According to the data, the coastline of Ningbo has ample wind resources. The typical power of the wind per square metre of hoop in coastal Ningbo region ranges from 127 to 144w/m2, which is roughly equivalent to 5.9m/s to 6.2m/s in terms of wind speed. This range of wind speed is much higher than the inland area, where its wind speed is in average roughly equal to 3m/s. Both average wind speed and number of days with strong wind has been decreasing since late 1980s. The Figure 7.2: Spatial average wind speed of Ningbo is Distribution of Wind approximately 5.3 m/s. If windmills are per m2 of Hoop 3 located along the coastal areas of Ningbo, with wind speed of 6m/s, it approximately produces a power of 2 W per m2 of land area. It is worth exploring offshore wind as it is well suited for the seashore regions of Zhejiang. At sea, as winds are generally stronger and steadier than on land, offshore wind farms deliver a higher power per unit area than onshore wind farms. Feasibility study on various factors, including the availability and reliable supply of wind resource, space for setting up the facilities, commercial viability etc. need to be conducted. 7.4 Economy Economically, Ningbo remains strong with a high GDP per capita, diverse industries and vigorous foreign investment compared to other major Chinese cities. There are ambitious economic targets in the City‟s 12th Five Year Plan which is driving a lot of the development to support its growing and more affluent population and industry. The main vulnerabilities lie in Industry and Incentives of the Business. 7.4.1 Industry Vulnerabilities Specific industry vulnerabilities include: Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 112 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan ï‚· Limited knowledge of climate risk by private sector; ï‚· Climate change not included in private sector‟s investment decision- making or plans; ï‚· Limited insurance for urban and rural residents; ï‚· Port remains typhoon focused; ï‚· Food security from agriculture and aquaculture from climate risk. 7.4.2 Recommendations to Implement Industry Resilience Program and Plans Climate change should be part of business‟ investment decision- making. How would more severe and frequent climate change impacts affect our business and business strategy? What needs to be done to account for inevitable climate change impacts? Such thinking and actions could also serve to reduce costs, increase return on investments, and improve corporate social responsibility. Corresponding government departments should be responsible for respective recommendations. ï‚· Implement Port Resilience Plan- As a coastal city, the Port plays a vital role in the City‟s economic development. Currently, the Port has one general emergency plan (to typhoons). The Ningbo Port Group Co. Ltd. acknowledged its weakness during the discussions. Port management should identify the impacts of climate change on the port and take steps to protect its strategic and operational objectives. Stronger and more advanced design and retrofit would add resilience to the port. Backup strategies should be included in the plan to ensure its continuous runs and further study regarding the impacts of a changing climate, particular sea level rise on the port is suggested to take into account. ï‚· Implement Agricultural Resilience Plan- Recognizing the importance of food security, Ningbo has implemented initiatives on protecting food. However, this does not incorporate climate change impacts, which as seen in the Natural Disaster Inventory cause devastating damage on agriculture, livestock and food storage. Incorporating climate change into Ningbo‟s food security and agricultural plans is vital, including protection of farmers, livestock and related assets; and providing adequate food to residents during emergency. Possible hazard-resistance crops should be explored, tested and promoted to expand the production capacity, especially in high typhoon risk rural areas of Xiangshan. ï‚· Implement Fishery Resilience Plan- A decrease in aquaculture has been seen in the production and number of fishermen in the City Vulnerability Assessment. A changing climate, such as temperature rise, intensified typhoons, heavier storms and sea level rise, will further affect Ningbo‟s fishing industry, all located along the coast. However, the aquaculture master plan in the Policy Inventory shows little on climate change. More can be done than the current plans for more durable tanks in the master plan. For example, fishermen and related assets need to be protected. Marine life should be monitored, especially against heat waves. Refrigerated food storage facilities should have additional power back-up. Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 113 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan Research on finding more adaptive and commercial species should be in collaboration with universities and local institutions. ï‚· Improve Insurance System- from the City Assessment, it is noted that Ningbo has an insurance system. But the urban insurances cover more on resident healthcare, employment, retirement, etc. than climate change or natural disaster impacts. Though a certain number of crops, livestock and collapsed rural houses are protected for rural residents, the priority is still general healthcare than incorporating climate change impacts. Finally, the insurance focuses mainly on post-disaster relief, rather than pre-disaster prevention. Options to expand insurance against natural disasters and climate change impacts for the complete lifecycle (pre and post-disasters) in rural and urban areas are recommended. ï‚· Undertake Targeted Education and Training- The Business education can be two-fold. First, it should focus on mitigating carbon in plans, operation, and management. This could include investment of clean technology, techniques on the adoption of renewable energy and improvement of energy efficiency. Second, it should look at protecting or adapting the business against climate. ï‚· Increase Public Private Partnership- Private sector should be more involved in climate change decision-making and opportunities. Typically involvement starts with mitigation projects, such as energy efficiency and renewable energies, but the local Government could pilot new projects on climate resilience and adaptation able to enhance the overall urban resilience, such as upgrading drainage system and clearing channels to avoid floods and waterlogs, climate proofing infrastructures, partnering on capacity building programs, etc. 7.4.3 Vulnerabilities and Recommendations on Incentive Specific vulnerabilities of incentives include: ï‚· No incentive to the private sector to mitigate emissions, particular GHGs; ï‚· No incentives to the private sectors to contribute to urban resilience. As industry accounts for a large portion of Ningbo‟s GDP as well as carbon energy consumption, incentives to reduce its GHGs emissions should be recommended, specifically as follow: ï‚· Develop Incentives (fiscal) for GHGs Emissions Reduction - It has been observed that investment in the environment started bringing fiscal benefits to the city, but not specific measures are in place. Incentives could be put in place to stimulate energy efficiency projects for important infrastructure such as the port, airport, university buildings and new facilities and retrofitting/renovating old building. Incentives should be studied in order to verify feasibility and possible outcome of such. Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 114 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan 7.5 Environment The assessment and gap analysis have seen the key vulnerabilities of environment in the general environmental quality, particularly air and water quality. Linking with other sectors, Environmental Quality and Water Resources and Flood will be the focus in the recommendation. 7.5.1 Environmental Quality Vulnerabilities Some of the environmental vulnerabilities are due more to traditional economic development activities and not climate change. Nonetheless it is important to note the overlap as the recommendations would benefit both. Specific environment vulnerabilities include: ï‚· NOx and acid rain issues; ï‚· Cultural heritage interventions do not consider climate change impacts; ï‚· Increasing haze days. 7.5.2 Recommendations to Enhance Environmental Quality Local government departments should work together to enhance the city‟s environmental quality. This involves Environmental Protection Department, Urban Management Bureau and Forestry Bureau. ï‚· Promote Greening (Also helps with flooding, water filtration and treatment)- Greening has been proved to be effective to improve urban air quality as well as helpful in mitigating floods and water filtration and treatment. Urban area, especially Three River City District where poor air quality is a concern and urban flooding is a threat in the development, should make more efforts on greening. Specific practices could include: o Substituting concrete land with green land in the land use plan if practicable o Expanding community green spaces o Increasing green walls, roofs, and alleys o Increasing urban agriculture (additional food security benefits) o Inserting greening targets into master plan o Inserting greening requirements into design code and construction o Increasing education on greening strategies for professionals, such as landscape designers o Expanding wetlands o Increasing green and pervious pavements in pedestrian walks, roads, and parking lots ï‚· Implement Cultural Heritage Resilience Plan- Ningbo possesses a great number of cultural and historic heritage sites throughout the City. A series of programs have been conducted to protect the sites, however, it has not incorporated climate change. It is recommended that a review should be done on the existing protection plans to incorporate the climate change Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 115 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan risks and adaptation measures to better protect the valuables from the climate change impacts. ï‚· Implement Biodiversity Resilience Plan- Rich biodiversity is important in improving the city‟s resilience against climate change. It is recommended to conduct an extensive baseline study with support of local institutions to understand the current conditions. Identification and protection of species affected by climate change impacts, such as increased droughts, warmer water temperatures, etc. should be taken into account. Particular attention should be given to species in coastal wetland which is very likely to be affected by the rising sea level. 7.5.3 Water Resource and Flood Vulnerabilities Specific water resource and flood vulnerability includes: ï‚· Poor river quality; ï‚· Poor coastal water quality; ï‚· Urban flooding/water logging; ï‚· Coastal flooding. 7.5.4 Recommendations to Improve Water Resources and Flood Management Though Ningbo is located in the coastal areas with abundant water resources, extreme weather events, particularly increasing floods, storms surge and droughts make water resources management critical. Much of this will be led by the Water Resource Bureau and Urban Drainage Company. ï‚· Increase Reservoirs- Storage of raw water in reservoirs in the basin or closer to the City helps to ensure that water collected in the wet periods is available for use in the dry times. o Most of the reservoirs are currently located in the southern part of the city, where rainfall is higher but meanwhile flooding there is also higher. More reservoirs should be built in southern Ningbo, like Ninghai. o Xiangshan and Cixi needs more water storage due to the threats of droughts where agriculture accounts for a key portion of the industry but requires great amount of water resources. ï‚· Increase Urban Rainwater Harvesting- The Three River City District suffers from flooding. Many of the buildings can be equipped with facilities to collect rainwater to reduce the runoff. The collected rainwater should be further treated for use, like flushing, irrigation, etc. Apart from minimizing floods, the measure would also reduce the reliance on freshwater and minimize water treatment. ï‚· Conduct Water Pollution Control Program- Besides water quantity, water quality should be improved. A detailed investigation on pollution sources could be helpful for subsequent control measures. There should be Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 116 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan a comprehensive connection of pollution sources with a wastewater treatment network for urban and rural areas. Water pollution control program could be more effective with the incorporation of relevant policies and monitoring system. ï‚· Separate Sewage from Drainage Network- This would release the burden and reduce the overload risks of the wastewater treatment network, especially the Three River City District which could be undertaken together with recommendation - Upgrade the Drainage System. ï‚· Increase Water Saving Devices and Monitoring- There should be design requirements for all new buildings to use water-saving devices, with existing buildings phasing out and replacing with new water saving devices. Education and financial incentives can be considered to encourage replacement and usage. ï‚· Replace Older Pumping Stations- Most of the pumping stations in the city center and Three River City District are over 15 years old. As the economic and population demands grow, it is hard for them to continue to function as effectively. Plans should be made to identify and replace pumping stations and improve drainage in parallel with recommendation – Increase Pumping Stations. ï‚· Water Leakage Detection Scheme- Water leakage should be identified and repaired. This includes teaching building occupants and property managers about water leakage and training detection and replacement and could incorporate it as part of training recommended in Developing Training for Those Building Operators and Property Managers. ï‚· Implement Demand Management- This includes a water savings campaign for the public and recycling water. By doing so, water savings could be understood as the economically and/ or socially beneficial reduction of water withdraws, water use or water waste. ï‚· Integrate Climate Change Risk into Water Resource Master plan for 2020- There should be a water specific adaptation policy to optimize water supply and quality, covering the vulnerable areas in water resources within the context of a changing climate. ï‚· Undertake Future Flood Planning– Given the limited data on floods and the likely increase of the forecast in the city, Ningbo should develop a framework which could be applied to the planning process to ultimately develop a predictive flood planning so that the relevant stakeholders could know the severity of the floods and where and how to improve/reinforce the infrastructure. Depending on the location and physical characteristics, lands in Ningbo maybe subject to flooding from: o the sea only; o both the sea and surface runoff simultaneously; and o rivers only; and Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 117 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan o inadequate surface drainage or ponding. Low lying coastal areas that are not near to the mouths of significant rivers are subject only to flooding from the sea while inland areas which are adjacent to rivers but above the zone of tidal influence are subject only to fluvial flooding. Areas in between, as is the case with much of Ningbo can be subject to both. Flooding from the sea is caused by a combination of factors including extreme tides and storm surge. Future changes to the intensity of flooding from the sea will be caused by sea level rise (SLR), increased storm surge (SS) due to higher wind speeds, and land subsidence (LS). Flooding from runoff is caused by rainfall generated surface runoff or from surface ponding. In particular the rate and duration of rainfall events, the capacity of conveyance channels to pass runoff, and the availability of storage adjacent to and off channel all affect the severity of flood events. Future changes to runoff rates will be effected by a variety of factors, most significantly by changes in rainfall intensity and duration (RID), land use (LU) and floodplain reclamation (FR). The Team proposed a framework for developing a future flood planning scenario as the formula: Flooding from the Sea (SLR + SS+LS) + Flooding from Runoff (RID + LU+FR) = Future Flood Planning Scenario ï‚· Expand Channels and Improve Storm Water Drainage in Flood Risk Areas- Flood risks could be further reduced by expanding the channels and dredging works. This should include the most vulnerable areas in floods include Three River City District and mountainous Ninghai area. ï‚· Introduce Schemes to Combat Salinity- Research on the severity and effect of sweater intrusion should be further explored in the coastal area of the City, particularly areas that are threatened by land subsidence. Measures could consider: o Raw water storage to increase the bulk flows against the rising sea level o Desalination process for brackish water to improve water treatment 7.6 Government Many experts believe that adaptation has to be “locally driven because the hazards, risks, and vulnerabilities are shaped by local contextsâ€?.93 While there can be outside technical support and financial aid, the City is most familiar with its own issues and will need to build up internal capacity long after foreign assistance leaves. Institutional capacity needs to be competent, strong, and withstand normal local governmental changes. It should be an iterative process and driven by the institutions Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 118 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan and personalities behind it. Ningbo needs to strengthen its climate change governance and related modelling and disaster risk management tools. 7.6.1 Governance Vulnerabilities Specific governance vulnerability includes: ï‚· Limited defined roles and responsibilities on climate change; ï‚· Limited education and training opportunities on climate change; ï‚· Limited departmental cooperation on climate change; ï‚· Limited governmental levels cooperation on climate change; ï‚· Limited or no flows of information on climate risks; ï‚· Lack of coordination among departments; ï‚· Lack of vertical coordination on climate change issues. 7.6.2 Recommendations to Strengthen Climate Change Governance ï‚· Determine Climate Change Taskforce Mission and Formal Role- While the Ningbo Climate Change Taskforce aims to be the entity to implement the LRAP, and the first and best stop for climate change information and strategy, how it handles the strategy is up to discussion. As in most government agencies, it will need to determine its level of independence and level of influence and control: whether it will take on just a coordinator role and let other departments take up most of the work; or whether it will build up its own resources and capacities to take on the work. As the group meets on an „as needed basis‟, at the minimum, it should establish a more formal role, with set communications, targets, and tasks. Meetings and communications for the Climate Change Taskforce should be often and prioritized among the various departments and other stakeholders. The group should be held accountable, with agreed goals, or work to accomplish. There could be a framework with key performance indicators or targets to help monitor accountability and progress. ï‚· Diversify Climate Change Taskforce Group Membership- the Taskforce Membership is composed of only government departments. However, climate change does not only affect government officials; nor should communication. Climate change affects all sectors and levels of society. They should be responsible as well for climate change, and have much to input and contribute. Among the sectors to be considered are private organizations, academic community, nonprofit groups, and sub local governments. Academics can provide their latest research and information on climate change. They can also connect to the research and thinking from the global academic community, and see which apply to Ningbo. Nonprofit groups, working with communities can provide local Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 119 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan input and action. The private sector could contribute with their research and development on new applicable technologies, or business models. While their knowledge and resources may vary, the new members are expected to place high importance on climate change and the Taskforce„s mission. They can be identified and selected by the government, who will still lead the group. The group should still be selective and manageable. But becoming more inclusive can attract new ideas, contribute resources, and spread the responsibility. ï‚· Outline Clear Roles and Responsibilities on Climate Change for Government Departments and Levels- Each department should include climate change into their plans and policies. They should also have a clear understanding of how climate change affects their responsibilities and how they should address it. ï‚· Increase and Share Climate Change Research and Information- More climate change research and information should be available to government officials to add in their decision-making. The Climate Change Taskforce may take a lead in this dissemination. The Urban Climate Change Research Network, a consortium of individuals and institutions dedicated to the analysis of climate change mitigation and adaptation from an urban perspective would be a good place to start. ï‚· Connect with Peer Network- Once the Taskforce has established its formal structure and expanded its membership, it should share its experiences and leanings with other similar City Climate Change Taskforces or working groups. Already, the group has reached out to US cities on a recent study tour. Further communication and follow-up can be done. This type of knowledge sharing, especially between cities with similar climate change risks or city vulnerabilities, can be valuable in devising strategies; obtaining new research or data; and understanding the process. Addressing climate change is challenging, and having others to share experiences with makes the process more comforting. ï‚· Increase Training on Disaster Risk Management- Government officials should have further and ongoing training on dealing with more frequent and severe climate change impacts. Practice drills and frequent cross- departmental communication should be embedded into the training. Government officials should be trained to use such disaster risk resources described above and apply its results into their policies. 7.6.3 Climate Forecast and Disaster Risk Management Vulnerabilities Specific vulnerabilities include: ï‚· Lack of raw data climate change parameters; ï‚· Need for additional monitoring stations for SLR and rainfall patterns; ï‚· Climate modeling software and capacity building for correct and effective usage; ï‚· Hydro-meteorological modeling. Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 120 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan 7.6.4 Recommendations to Strengthen Climate Forecast and Disaster Risk Management Climate change modelling as well as natural disaster risk forecasts have been proven important tools to shape any preventive actions and decision-making for the City and government officials. Considering that data collection, monitoring and modelling have been identified challenges for the Team during the LRAP process, several recommendations are specifically proposed here to enhance forecasting and scenario building abilities. The Ningbo Climate Change Taskforce should be closely involved. ï‚· Strengthen ClimateChange Modeling- The work with Ningbo Meteorology Bureau was a starting point on climate change modeling for Ningbo. Further education and resources should be provided so that Ningbo Meteorology Bureau can provide a better assessment on the climate change risks on different parts of the city, with various scenarios and timeframes. This could include training in other research centers and universities, attending scientific conferences, or inviting visiting scholars to work together. ï‚· Strengthen Hydro Meteorology and Geophysical Modeling– Such type of modeling are lacking or need to be updated. Specific software, as well as training and resources should be provided to Municipal Departments, so to provide a better assessment on the hydro meteorology and geophysical risks on different parts of the city, with various scenarios and timeframes. This could include training in other research centers and universities, attending scientific conferences, or inviting visiting scholars to work together. ï‚· Enhance GIS and Spatial Tools- Critical in the Spatial Assessment is identifying the vulnerable areas to climate change. But this proved difficult in the project, such as obtaining the maps in the suitable scale and form. This process could be easier, and can be supported with further spatial training and tools. This will mainly involve Ningbo Meteorology working together with the Planning Department; the former identifying the climate risks and the latter plotting it against development. But it will also include other departments and wider sectors. Such spatial analysis should be more readily understood, part of the decision-making process, utilized by more city stakeholders, and publicly-available. ï‚· Increase Resources for Disaster Risk Management- More and better early warning system and risks evaluation systems should be put in place. Emergency and evacuation plans at different disaster-prone districts should be up to date and regularly tested to react to warnings and possible extreme climate events. Hazard monitoring and early warning services should be further developed and strengthened to monitor right parameters, and to generate timely and accurate warnings. For example, additional sea- level monitoring stations and wave recorders at selected sites should be established; meteorological and hydrological monitoring system should be further expanded and upgraded to ensure availability of risk data and maps. It is equally important to review existing monitoring location and Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 121 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan strategically extend network of measurement stations and combine with other appropriate data sources such as satellite data. ï‚· Develop Academic Courses on Climate Change Modeling and Scenario Building – a specific curriculum in the Faculty of Engineering and/or Public health and/or Meteorology should be put in place. These courses could be designed in partnership with other Universities in Western countries as well as in other Developing Countries, facilitating specific networks and exchanges among researches, faculty members and students. A feasibility study is recommended to proceed to the correct and effective design of curricula. 7.7 Prioritized Recommendations It is important that the City was deeply involved in the prioritization process as it is a good way to build local capacity. They ultimately will be implementing and running the recommendations. The priorities are based on several aspects or considerations, such as: ï‚· Costs- resources required to initiate or construct, and maintain the proposal. How would it be paid for and by whom? It is divided between high, medium, and low costs for the city. ï‚· Time- time required to plan and implement. It is divided between short, medium, and long term time frame. ï‚· Complexity- level of difficulty in planning and implementing the project. What are the challenges to the project that should be considered? Are the challenges easy to overcome? This is divided between easy, medium, and difficult. ï‚· Address Climate Change- how does it address climate change impacts? ï‚· Other Benefits- are there other advantages to the project that could also decrease city vulnerability? ï‚· Lead Party (ies) - Who are the lead actors or organizations that should be involved in the planning and operation of the project? What kind and level of input do we need? Through active stakeholder engagement, the recommendations were prioritized in the final workshop. The top 11 recommendations were highlighted below. In general, Ningbo recognized the need to do additional research and training on climate change, especially to protect the ports and the City‟s health. They understand the need to have a stronger governing body, the Climate Change Taskforce, to provide the Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 122 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan leadership, direction, and management for climate change. This is part of the broader approach to incorporate clime change into policy and decision-making. In detail, they are: ï‚· Strengthen Climate Change Modeling (No.= 12) ï‚· Increase Research on Climate Change Impacts on Health (No.= 10 ) ï‚· Determine Group Taskforce Mission and Formal Role (No.=9) ï‚· Implement Port Resilience Plan (No.=8) ï‚· Promote Greening (No.=7) ï‚· Conduct Water Pollution Control Program (No. =6) ï‚· Diversify Energy Sources (No.= 5) ï‚· Implement Agriculture Resilience Plan (No.=4) ï‚· Implement Stronger Design and Construction Standards and Codes for New Buildings (No.=4) ï‚· Strengthen Retrofit & Reinforcement in Vulnerable Areas (No.=4 ) ï‚· Introduce Schemes to Combat Salinity (No.=4) The views of the stakeholders in implementing the recommendations are reflected in the cost, complexity, timeframe and relevance to address climate change, etc. as summarized in Table 7.1. Apart from the prioritized recommendations, the whole set of recommendations constitute the core outcome in the LRAP. The metric outlines in details the features of implementing the recommendations, who will work on which priority recommendation and the challenges within the recommendation. From these, the responsible department will have a clear understanding on the recommendations before making plans and preparation. The leading agency should develop further feasibility study prior to implementation. Monitoring and evaluation are suggested to ensure the effectiveness and progress. Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 123 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan Table 7.1: Matrix of Prioritized Recommendations Recommendation Cost a Time b Complexity c Address Climate Change Other Benefits Challenges Lead Party Increase L-M M M ï‚· Higher knowledge and ï‚· Improving medical care ï‚· Defining major ï‚· Public Health Research on awareness of climate change services related diseases Bureau Climate Change impacts ï‚· Improving medical care ï‚· Data availability Impacts on capability Health Implement Port M M-L M ï‚· Enhancing capability of Port ï‚· Protecting public safety ï‚· Identification of ï‚· Port Authority Resilience Plan in combating climate change and assets extreme events ï‚· Ningbo Port impacts ï‚· Improving modernization ï‚· Identification of Cooperation Ltd. ï‚· Minimizing losses of Port different port ï‚· Stimulating economic operations ï‚· Other recommendations: development ï‚· Complexity of ï‚· Implement petrochemical ï‚· Enhancing port retrofit industry resilience competitiveness ï‚· Forecasting of sea ï‚· Establish emergency plan, level rise construct coastal dikes, ï‚· Funds improve loading and clearance process in the port and strengthen container yard construction regulation Promote M L M ï‚· Improving carbon sink ï‚· Improving life quality ï‚· Limited land ï‚· Urban Greening ï‚· Better environment to adapt ï‚· Improving air quality resources Management the extreme weather ï‚· Strengthening soil ï‚· Funds Bureau ï‚· Reducing risks of floods protection ï‚· Environmental Protection Bureau Report Ref | Draft 1 | June 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 124 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan Recommendation Cost a Time b Complexity c Address Climate Change Other Benefits Challenges Lead Party Determine L S E ï‚· Increasing cooperation ï‚· Strengthening standard ï‚· Cross- ï‚· NDRC Group Mission among departments management administrative and Formal Role ï‚· Setting direction for the function whole city to address climate ï‚· Difficulty in change determining the role Note: ï‚· Government ï‚· Stakeholder considered it is awareness and the foundation to carry acknowledgement forward other recommendations shortlisted in the table Strengthen M M-L D ï‚· Better understanding of ï‚· Expanding the knowledge ï‚· Long term ï‚· Meteorology Climate Change climate change of the technical personnel ï‚· Lack of raw data Bureau Modelling ï‚· Serving as the fundamental ï‚· Inadequate recommendation for further modelling plans, preparedness and other capability actions ï‚· Insufficient resources Note: a): L-Low, M- Medium, H-High b): S-Short, M-Medium, L-Long c): E-Easy, M-Medium, H-Difficulty Report Ref | Draft 1 | June 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 125 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan 8 Conclusions The Team understands that this LRAP is not sufficient to meet all the challenges in a changing climate. However, this LRAP is a starting point for the City to prepare and improve its resilience. This plan enables the City of Ningbo to understand the hazards it faces and will face, identify its most important vulnerabilities and establish priorities in terms of specific programs to make the city and its citizens safer, the environment better and the economy stronger. The LRAP is not a stationary plan. Rather, it is an ongoing process that requires commitment and has the flexibility to respond to new and changing information. The preparation of this LRAP was challenging. The Team acknowledges spatial analysis is a very useful tool in identifying the vulnerability spatially, whereas, however, the analysis is confined by the availability and quality of data, which are either confidential or unobtainable, or in low quality. 1 The Team has made the best efforts to obtain useful information with strong support from local government and finally found the credible solution for unavailable information. Ningbo serves as the Chinese pilot city for the World Bank Climate Resilience program. This LRAP and its methodology are applicable to other cities when building the resilience. 1 For instance, if the drainage system could be provided, floods forecast could be easier; given the sea level monitoring data, sea level rise would not remain at the regional scale. Provided the natural disaster records, the inventory of natural disaster would not be so time-consuming and be beyond tropical cyclones. Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 126 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan References 1 Prasad, Neeraj, & World Bank. “2009 Climate resilient cities: a primer on reducing vulnerabilities to disastersâ€? / Neeraj Prasad . [et al.] World Bank, Washington, D.C. 2 Welcome to Ningbo, web, 2010. . 3 Aimin Liu, et al. “Ningbo Climate and Climate Change.â€? China Meteorological Press, 2009. 4 Produced by Arup, 2010. 5 Nicholls, R., et al., Ranking Port Cities with High Exposure and Vulnerability to Climate Extremes: Exposure Estimates, OECD Environment Working Papers, 2008, No. 1.doi: 10.1787/011766488208. 6 While the City has conducted a flood risk study in 1997 by the Water Resources Bureau, the map produced at that time did not cover the whole area and is not obtainable. The flood map, even if it was given, would be fairly old, given the substantial developments over the past decade. 7 Area in complex topography with a very high chance of geological hazard due to human activities is defined as high-level risk area. 8 Area in poor geological environment with a high chance of geologcial hazard due to human activities is defined as medium-level risk area. 9 Ningbo Municipal Government, “Ningbo Geological Hazard Prevention Plan (2008-2015).â€? 2009. 10 Climate modelling, especially on the city scale, remained challenging. Ningbo Meteorology Bureau had made tremendous effort on learning, cooperating, testing, and forecasting to deliver local-based results. The modelling is an ongoing learning and evaluation process, dependent on the model, data available, and training and knowledge provided. Certainly more could be done, such as forecasting precipitation, and other extreme weather events. But this represented a good start, and was critical to the climate change risk assessment. 11 Ningbo Meteorology. “Ningbo Climate and Climate Change Scenario Analysis.â€? 2011. 12 Hot Weather. 2010. . 13 General Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine of the People's Republic of China, and China National Standardizing Committee, Grade of Tropical Cyclones – National Standard (GB/T 19201-2006) 14 Zhao Zongci and Jiang Ying, “Review on Climate Changes of Tropical Cyclones and Typhoons.â€? Science & Technology Review. 2010, 28(15):88-96. 15 Bender M A, Knutson T R, Tuleya R E, et al. “Modeled impact of anthropogenic warming on the frequency of intense Atlantic hurricanes.â€? Science, 2010, 327(5964): 454-458. 16 Thomas R. Knutson, et al. “Tropical cyclones and climate change.â€? Nature Geoscience. 2010 (3): 157 – 163. 17 Chreod Ltd. in associated with Sogreah Consultants, “Ningbo Profile Report Resilient Cities: Multi- hazard City Risk Index.â€? 2011. 18 Chreod Ltd. in associated with Sogreah Consultants, “Ningbo Profile Report Resilient Cities: Multi- hazard City Risk Index.â€? 2011. 19 Chreod Ltd. in associated with Sogreah Consultants, “Ningbo Profile Report Resilient Cities: Multi- hazard City Risk Index.â€? 2011. 20 Lin Erda, et al. “Synopsis of China National Climate Change Assessment Report (II): Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation.â€? Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 127 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan 21 Chinese Academy of Sciences, et al. “Climate Adaptation in Asia: Knowledge Gaps and Research Issues in Chin.â€? 2008. . 22 Feng Lihua and Hong Weihu. “Characteristics of Drought and Flood in Zhejiang Province, East China: Past and Future.â€? Chinese Geographical Science 2007 17(3):257-264 23 Sun Qing Zhang, Yan Shu Hu, et al. “Potential Impacts of Sea Level Rise on the Economy and Environment in the Yangtze River Delta and the Countermeasures Thereof.â€? 24 IPCC, Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007 (AR4) 25 国家海洋局. “ 2009年中国海平é?¢å…¬æŠ¥.â€? 2010. . 26 Wu Qiang, et.al. Relative sea-level rising and its control strategy in coastal regions of China in the 21st century. Science in China (Earth Sciences). 2003, 46 (1):74-83. 27 Chreod Ltd. in associated with Sogreah Consultants, “Ningbo Profile Report Resilient Cities: Multi- hazard City Risk Index.â€? 2011. 28 Chreod Ltd. in associated with Sogreah Consultants, “Ningbo Profile Report Resilient Cities: Multi- hazard City Risk Index.â€? 2011. 29 Tian, Bo, et al. “Forecasting the effects of sea-level rise at Chongming Dongtan Nature Reserve in the Yangtze Delta, Shanghai, Chinaâ€?. Ecological Engineering. 2010. 36 (10): 1383-1388. 30 SHI Yafeng, et al. Prediction and prevention of the impacts of sea level rise on the Yangtze River Delta and its adjacent areas, Science in China (SERIES D) 2000, 43 (4): 412-422. 31 Liu Yuefeng, Han Mukang, Wu Lun. Comprehensive impacts assessment on sea level rising for major delta plains of China, Quaternary Sciences (in Chinese), 1999, (3): 321. 32 Ying Renfang, Zhejiang Coastal Sea Level Rise Projections and Impacts. 33 Arup study. 34 Due to limited information, impacts are shown qualitatively. Neither monetization nor quantification of losses is provided. 35 Chreod Ltd. in associated with Sogreah Consultants, “Ningbo Profile Report Resilient Cities: Multi- hazard City Risk Index.â€? 2011. 36 According to UN the overall urbanization rate of China in 2009 is 46%. United Nations, “World Urbanization Prospects The 2009 Revision Highlights.â€?2009. . 37 Ningbo Planning Bureau, å®?波市规划局. “Ningbo City Master Plan (2004-2020).â€? 2006. 38 News.163.com. “å®?æ³¢è€?龄化加速10å¹´å?Žï¼•äººä¸­æœ‰1ä½?è€?人.â€? 2009. . 39 Floating population is defined as people living and/or working in the city without hukou residential permits of the city. This group of people is undocumented, unprotected, and is not eligible for city benefits and social securities. 40 Ningbo Statistics Bureau, “2009å¹´å®?波市国民ç»?济和社会å?‘展统计公报.â€? 2010. . 41 Shanghai Statistics Bureau, “2009年上海市国民ç»?济和社会å?‘展统计公报.â€? 2010. . 42 Beijing Municipal Bureau of Statistics, “北京市2009年国民ç»?济和社会å?‘展统计公报.â€? 2010. . 43 Hangzhou Municipal Statistics Bureau, “2009å¹´æ?­å·žå¸‚国民ç»?济和社会å?‘展统计公报.â€? 2010. . Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 128 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan 44 Nanjing Municipal Statistics Bureau, “å?—京市2009年国民ç»?济和社会å?‘展统计公报.â€? 2010. 45 Wuhan Statistics Bureau, “2009年武汉市国民ç»?济和社会å?‘展统计公报.â€? 2010. . 46 Chongqing Statistics Bureau, “2009å¹´é‡?庆市国民ç»?济和社会å?‘展统计公报.â€? 2010. . 47 National Bureau of Statistics of China, “2009年国民ç»?济和社会å?‘展统计公报.â€? 2010, . 48 Ningbo Municipal Statistics Bureau, “Ningbo Statistical Yearbook 2009.â€? 2010. 49 Ningbo Culture and Heritage Bureau, “Bluebook of City Cultural Development.â€? 2010. 50 China Ningbo News. “æ?Žæƒ åˆ©åŒ»é™¢ä¸œéƒ¨é™¢åŒºé¡¹ç›®èŽ·æ‰¹ è?½æˆ·é«˜æ–°å›­åŒº.â€? 2010. . 51 Ningbo Land Resources Bureau. 2009. . 52 Ningbo Land Resources Bureau, 2009, . 53 Chreod Ltd. in associated with Sogreah Consultants, “Ningbo Profile Report Resilient Cities: Multi- hazard City Risk Index.â€? 2011. 54 Ningbo Public Transportation Corporation, “Ningbo Bus Notes, å®?波公交志.â€? 55 Chreod Ltd. in associated with Sogreah Consultants, “Ningbo Profile Report Resilient Cities: Multi- hazard City Risk Index.â€? 2011. 56 Dimitriou, H.T. Towards a generic sustainable urban transport strategy for middle-sized cities in Asia: Lessons from Ningbo, Kanpur and Solo, Habitat International. (2006): 1082-1099 57 Ningbo Water Resources Bureau, “å®?波市水资æº?综å?ˆè§„划, Integrated Water Resources Plan.â€? 2005. 58 Irrigation and river basin management: options for governance and institutions. Edited by Mark Svendsen – IWMI published by CABI Publishing 2005. 59 Shanghai Water Resources Bureau, “2009年上海市水资æº?公报, Shanghai Water Resources Report 2009.â€? 2010. 60 Wuhan Water Authority, “2008年武汉市水资æº?公报, Wuhan Water Resources Report 2008.â€? 2009. 61 Ningbo Water Resources Bureau, “å®?波农æ?‘供水管ç?†åŠžæ³•ï¼ˆåˆ?稿）.â€? 2007. . 62 Ningbo Statistics Bureau, Survey Office, “å®?波市三年基本实现农æ?‘供水全覆盖.â€? 2008. . 63 中国建设报, “å®?波破解å?°é£Žå­£èŠ‚城市内æ¶?难题.â€? 2010. . 64 An exception is certain valuable materials which are usually sold by households to recycling markets. 65 Investigation Report Ningbo Urban Municipal Waste Treatment, 2009. 66 Ningbo Municipal Statistics Bureau, “Ningbo Statistical Yearbook 2007.â€? 2007. 67 Ningbo Statistics Bureau, “Ningbo Statistical Yearbook 2008.â€? 2008. 68 Shanghai Statistics Bureau, 上海市统计局. “Shanghai Statistical Yearbook 2008.â€? 2008. Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 129 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan 69 Beijing Statistics Bureau, 北京市统计局. “Beijing Statistical Yearbook 2008.â€? 2008. 70 Chongqing Statistics Bureau, é‡?庆市统计局. “Chongqing Statistical Yearbook 2008.â€? 2008. 71 Chreod Ltd. in associated with Sogreah Consultants, “Ningbo Profile Report Resilient Cities: Multi- hazard City Risk Index.â€? 2011. 72 Ningbo China, “Discovering Ningbo – Overview.â€? Web, 2010, . 73 Sigurdson, Jon., “Ningbo: A Regional City Leapfrog into Hi-Tech Development, Working Paper 212.â€? 2005. 74 “å?—京市蔬è?œåŸºåœ°ç®¡ç?†åŠžæ³•.â€? 2004. . 75 “武汉市蔬è?œåŸºåœ°ç®¡ç?†åŠžæ³•ï¼ˆä¿®æ­£ï¼‰.â€? 2004. . 76 Ningbo Agricultural Bureau. 2010. “Ningbo Livestock Statistics2009å®?波市2009年畜牧业数æ?®.â€? 77 Ningbo Marine and Fishery Bureau, “2009å¹´å®?波市渔业统计分æž?.â€? . 78 Zhejiang Tourism, “世界银行GEFå®?æ³¢/慈溪湿地项目进展顺利.â€? 2009. . 79 Ningbo Daily News. “国内首款自然ç?¾å®³ä¿?险é?¢å¸‚.â€? 2008. . 80 Ningbo Insurance Regulatory Bureau, “Ningbo Insurance Development Report 2009.â€? 2010. 81 “武汉市æ??高城镇医疗水平 年增7.5亿元医ä¿?基金.â€? 2010. . 82 “å®?æ³¢300多万农民å?¯åœ¨â€œå®¶é—¨å?£â€?刷å?¡çœ‹ç—….â€? 2010. . 83 Ningbo Insurance Regulatory Bureau, “Ningbo Insurance Development Report 2009.â€? 2010. 84 PRC Environmental Quality Standard for Surface Water, GB 3838-2002. 85 Outline of Ningbo Ecological City Plan, 2003. 86 Growing stocks is defined as the volume of all living trees in a given area of forest or wooded land that have more than a certain diameter at breast height. It is usually measured in m3. Ningbo Daily. “与国家森林城市零è·?离.â€? 2010. . 87 Ningbo Planning Bureau, “å®?波市城市总体规划概è¦?（2004-2020） - 城市总体规划.â€? 2010. . 88 Provided by Ningbo Planning Bureau. 89 World Bank Wetland Report. 90 Ningbo Development and Reform Commission. “å®?波市社会ç»?济å??二五规划基本æ€?è·¯, General Idea on Ningbo 12th Social-Economic Five Year Development Plan.â€? 2010. 91 The ratio of urban and rural income in the 12th Five-Year Plan is slightly lower than 11th Five-Year Plan, resulting in a decrease of disparity between urban and rural income. Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 130 World Bank Climate Resilient Ningbo Draft Local Resilience Action Plan 92 Zhejiang Provincial Statistics Bureau, “2009年浙江çœ?国民ç»?济和社会å?‘展统计公报.â€? 2010. . 93 Satterthwaite, D., Dodman, and D., Bicknell, J. Conclusions: Local Development and Adaptation. In: Bicknell, J., Dodman, D., Satterthwaite, D. (Eds). “Adapting Cities to Climate Change: Understanding and Addressing the Development Challenges.â€? London: Earthscan, 2009, p. 359-384. Report Ref | Draft 1 | 3 March 2011 110630_FINAL REPORT.DOCX Page 131