f; ; ':'s? $ , -Iv"'iWlul>>s , .1;N ' '1' ',*, -' , / 0 1 1' iw1- t a 5 t-Vr5*** -vS tti 1 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~.I :ft: ~~I; i;l:iiAtl;4flis 1 Sl"iST7i t11 g; 4] Se ls7ffil;6!; fij$+e -^?s S 1.! St~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~1 S t ~~~~~~~~----- -_ - ~- - - - - - - ~~~~~~~IL .. - w i**l * . v 3! Wt W7 1 t 1~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ .1,; '{: 0 0 - *|b 0 g - 3 1 1~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~u Wi t 'h~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~.1- M I~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~.~~~~~~~~~~~~~ The Evolving Role of the World Bank South Asia's Food Crisis The Case of India Uma Lele and Balu Bumb T-he World Baink Washington, DC The World Bank Group The World Bank Group is a family of multilateral development institutions owned by and accountable to metber govermnents. These governents exrise thir ownership function through Boards of Governors on which each member country is represented individually. All the powers vested in the Board of Govemors, with a few exceptions, have been delegated to Boards of Executive Directors, who are appointed or elected by member governments. The President of the Bank Grr.up is appointed by the Executive Directors. The World Bank Group today includes five iternational organizations: The Interational Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD), the origial institution i the group, opened its doors for business in 1946 Today, it is the largest source of market-based loans to developing coun- tries and is a major catalyst of similar financing from other soures. It lends to governments or tDpublic orpri- vate entities with government guarantees. It is funded mainly through borrowings on the intemational capital markets. The International Fmance Corporation (IFC) was established in 1956 to support private enterprise in the developing world fhrough the provision and mobilization of loan and equity financing and through its advi- sory acivities relatmg to, among other things, capital market development and privatization IFC is also a major catalyst of both local and foreign private investment. Its lending and equity investment activities are based on the principle of taking market risk along with private investors. Under the ternms of its Artiles of Agrement it carnot accept govenment guarantees. The International Development Association (IDA) was created in 1960 to provide finance on concessional terms to low-income countries that lak creditworths for IBRD borrowing. IDA is primarily funded from grants it receves from donrs in periodic replenishments. The Intemational Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID) was added to the Woird Bank family in 1966 to provide coclatio and arbitration services for disputes between foreign investors and host gDv- ernments that arise directly outof an investment The Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA) was created in 1988 to provide nonm l invest- ment risk insuarace and technical services that help promote irvestment flows. It also dissemiinates infoma- tion on investment opportumities. As is now .mjmon practice, the "World Bank' or simply the 'Bank" are used iterhangebly to mean both IBRD and IDA. The -World Bank GC;roup" rers to IBRD, IDA,, IFCFICSID, and MIGA. i .~~~~~~~~~~~~9 Or. . . ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ N j. 00 Foreword The world has changed dramatically over the last five decades and so has the World Bank. The Fiftieth Anniversary of the World Bank has provided us with an opportunity to reflect on and learn from the Bank's experience and to apply the lessons to the Bank's future agenda. This series of essays is devoted to improving understanding of the evolving role of the World Bank. Each essay analyzes the Bank's approach to the major development challenges its borrowing countries have faced, starting with the reconstruction and development needs of Europe and Japan in the 1940s and 1950s and ending with the transition of Central and Eastern Europe and the fortner Soviet Union. One essay examines the evolution of the Bankls relations with the world's capital markets as it mobilizes private savings for develop- ment. An overview paper provides a picture of the fifty-year period as a whole. The story that emerges is one of an evolving and learning institution that has built on its successes and its mistakes. The Bank has responded with vigor and energy to the challenges confronting its borrowers. In this process, it has made a significant contribution to the impressive developmental gains recorded in these past fifty years. In responding to those chalenges, the Bank itself has changed, learning from its experiences, deepening its under- standing of the development process, and recasting its analytical and financial support to help its borrowers betten The Bank will continue to nurture its tradition of self-evaluation and learning. These essays will, I hope, contribute to a better-informed debate on the Bank's future role. They comple- ment the recently issued paper, The World Bank Group-Learning from the Past, Embracing the Future, which sets out the future directions for the Bank Group. Armeane MA Choksi Vice President, Human Resources Development and Operations Policy, and Chairman of the Bank Group Committee on the 50th Anniversary South Asia's Food Crisis The Case of India Uma Lele and Balu Bumb Thirty years ago, the world regarded India as an economic basket case. Today, India manages the world's largest public grain stock and has even become a minor gain exporr. In 1993, the coun- try's exports increased 20 percent (and are expected to continue Thzfyyrfs ago, the increasing rapidly), and the economy as a whole attracted Uorld regarded India as $4.7 billion of foreign investment. These positive economic trends an economic baset case. make India one of the largest emerging markets in the world. Today, India manages the wzorlds largest public Clearly Indiaes (and the rest of Asia's) Green Revolution is a grain stock development succss of major proportions-and one in which the World Bank has played a significant role. By increasing food production and creating millions of jobs, it allowed India to reduce dependence on food imports and lower the share of its population living in poverty from 50 percent in the 1970s to 30 percent by the end of the 19811s. It is also estimated that, bymaking land already under cultivation more productive, some 45 million hectares have been saved from the plow-land roughly equivalent to the land under India's best remaining forests. This triple phenomenon of enhanced food securty} poverty alleviation, and environmental susainability has been repeated in much of South and South East Asia. Moreover, enhanced food security and the ability to maintain low urban food prices and wages, combimed with global political and economic changes have allowed South Asian countres to follow the path of their East Asian neighbors towards economic liberalization- 1 The Evolving Role of the World Bank India's repeated food and The character of World Bank economic crises pushed two assistance to India has changed successive Prime Ministers, Mr. over time as it has learned from Lal Bahadur Shastri and Mrs. its experience. However, many Indira Gandhi, to try new ideas more lessons are still to be and innovative ways to develop dlistilled and applied. the country's agriculture. The advice of many assistance agen- The Green Revolution in South cies, including private United Asia' is one of the most States foundations, and some of important (yet misunderstood) the world's top experts on development stories of techno- agriculture, reinforced the logical change, international credibility of agricultural cooperation, and national per- reform. The international severance. It has been contro- character of the World Bank versial, for its contributions as Mission's agricultural team (led well as its form. Clearly, much by Sir John Crawford) remains to be done to make increased its acceptability sure that South Asia's 300 m;U- among the handful of strategi- lion poor do not have to go to cally placed Indian policy bed hungry, lacking employ- makers such as Mr. C. ment and income to buy the Subranianiam, India's then increased food supplied by the 'Minister of Agriculture. His Green Revolution. The Green Revolution in support was crucial at a time South Asia is one of the . when Indo-United States Certain policies and institutions relations had soured. With the introduced to propel the revo- blessings of both prime minis- lution have also caused other misunderstood) . ters, Mr- Subramanam and problems in their wake; axces- derelopment stonies of d several other Indians played a sive use of chemicals, the technological change, key role in selling the reforms pealing in yields, increased international cooperation, internally to a wide array of salinization, silting of dams, and national perseverance skeptics. Their efforts laid the waterlogging, interregional foundation for sustained disparities, and mounting growth in agricultural agricultural subsidies. Today productivity in the irrigated water shortages threaten to parts of India and South Asia become Indias greatest- envi- for well over three decades. ronmental crisis. Interregional 2 South Asia's Food Crisis specialization in cropping and transport; and additional patterns also need to advance investment in irrigation. 'With more rapidly. But with the pop- millions of scattered small farm I The heart of the ulation having doubled in three households with litde money or Revolution was the decades, both the environmen- access to physical or instit- introduction of miracle tal stress and poverty would utional infrastructure, public wheat and rice varieties, have been much worse without policy was crucial. Many whichc dramatically the Green Revolution-particu- agribusiness acti% ities can now changed India's agti- larly in India's semiarid areas be handled easily by the private cultural production on which larger populations sector and by nongovernmental function, and increased would have had to depend for community organizations. In t a p food security and livelihood. the early years of the Green Revolution, however, both The heart of the Revolution these sectors were far weaker was the introduction of mirade and food shortages were acute, wheat and rice varieties, which placing the burden for change dramatically changed India's on government. agricultural production function, and increased total 'Why Focus on India factor productivity. But technological breakthroughs South Asia contains 22 percent would have had little effect of the world's poputlation and I without policy reforms. New 47 percent of its poor. Within technologies required new South Asia, India accounts for policies, and India's leaders 74 percent of the population, responded to the challenge. earns 78 percent of its GNl, The country's evolving national and produces 77 percent of its agricultural strategy induded a foodgrin. complex mix of price incen- tives; a goal-oriented national As the world's largest democra- agricultural research system; cy (and one of the oldest support services responsive to among developing countries), farmers; a system of short-run India was viewed by the West imports and long-run produc- as a counter to communist tion and distribution of fertiliz- China. India took center stage er and seed; a public system of in development planning in the grain procurement, storage, 1950s and the 1960s, attracting 3 The Evolving Role of the World Bank some of the best known west- Before the end of the 1970s, ern economists. They not only India commanded a dominant backed India's import-substitut- share in the Bank's lending for ing industrialization strategy, agriculture and rural develop- they also lent it intellectual ment.3 Even so, in per capita credibility by developing terms, and as a proportion of f state-of-the-art multisectoral India's own public sector models to explore planning investment, the World Bank options. India was only share has been modest. IDA displaced as the model for lending to India averaged about development practice when $2 per person annually in East Asia achieved more rapid 1979-81, which was less than 2 and more broad-based percent of total investment economic growth. expenditures.3 Throughout the 1950s and In 1965-1967, when her food- 1960s, India attracted a grain imports constituted substantial amount of financial, 80 percent of the South Asian commodity, and technical total and 10 percent of the assistance from the United world cereal trade in 1965-67, States and became the largest India's food crisis was of glob- recipient of concessional IDA al significance. Following the lending. After Robert Green Revolution, India's Before the end of the McNamara became president share of total South Asian 1970s India commanded of the World Bank in 1968 and foodgrain imports declined to a dominant share in the poverty alleviation became its just 16 percent in 1972 and Bank's mendirg - principal goal, agricultural less than 7 percent in 1979 lending quadrupled in his first (see Figure 1). for agriculure and - term. As part of this commit- rural developmen2t . ment, India received 26 percent Undivided Pakistan and Sri of worldwide IDA credits, Lanka both enjoyed higher 60 percent of IDA commit- initial land productivity, higher ments (about $35 billion) to agricultural growth and high- the South Asian Region, and er and more stable per capita 70 percent of total Bank com- domestic food availability, mitments (about $60 billion) to possibly because both had a the region through 1993. more assured initial supply of 4 South Asia's Food Crisis water. (To maintain this sup- The World Bank and the ply, Bank agricultural United States (then India's assistance to both countries premier donor) played a central ! has focused on irrigation, for role in helping to change example, at Tarbela in Pakistan agricultural policies and institu- and Mahaweli in Sri Lanka). tions in India, and subsequently The Bank also played an active throughout South Asia. For role in bringing about the India, President Lyndon 1960 Indus Waters Treaty Johnson personally instituted between India and Pakistan, and oversaw a 'short-tether' which ecpanded irrigation and requiring India to adhere to increased food productivity in policy reforms devised by the both countries, and averted World Bank. In the midst of regional conflict over water. India's worst post-indepen- Had there been an agreement dence food crisis in 1965-67, between the two countries on and following a decade of U.S joint development and support to India, Johnson made management of waters, this food shipments available on a could all have been achieved at month-to-month basis. Indian much lower cost. policy makers found the experience humiliating, and the Figure.1 Declining dependency on food imports in India Cereal imports Kilos per person 15- 5- 0 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 S The Evolving Role of the World Bank episode soured relations with influenced India." The Bank's the United States. Johnson later experience in India helped it to described India's Green clarify policies regarding I Revolution as 'one of the most balance-of-payments support difficult and lonely struggles" for countries during a foreign of his presidency! This testifies exchange crisis, local and to the almost insurmountable recurrent cost financing, the , difficulties that Indian policy broad-based use of local makers and the World Bank contracting, and poverty faced in instituting new agricul- alleviation. A vocal member of tural policies. the Bretton Woods conference that fashioned the IBRD in Jobnson later described 5 With considerable diplomacy, 1945, India also played an India's Green Revolution the Bank helped to convince important role in the creation as "one of the most 5 India's policymakers that of IDA in 1960, and in trans- agriculture was the country's forming the World Bank from difficult and lonely chief priority. To help them its 1950s role as a financial develop institutional and policy institution to a development reforms, the Bank also provid- bank in the 1 960s and 1970s. ed concessional finance and foreign exchange pardally to From Food Insecurity to make up for the loss of U.S. aid Growth after the 1960s. At the time of independence in For the next twenty years, Bank 1947, India's per capita income financing enabled India to was a mere $50 in nominal expand irrigation and agricul- terms, and had been declining tural credit and supply fertiliz- for almost fifty years. Average ers to millions of small farmers. daily per capita grain consump- Although its financial presence tion was only 400 grams, with was still small, the Bank's the poor consuming a fraction influence on Indian policy was of that.' Recurring droughts the greatest in the mid-1960s. and lagging growth in food- grain production forced India According to Mason and Asher, to depend on food imports. In - . India has influenced the drought years, such Bank as much as the Bank has dependence created both food 6 South Asia's Food Crisis and foreign exchange crises. In the level of real wages, and the early years of scarcity, thus indirectly, the pace of surplus commodity aid from industrialization. Over 40 percent of India's the United States stabilized net foreign resource domestic food supplies, Yet despite the commanding transfers in the ten years ensuring food security for the position of agriculture, Indian poor. These shipments saved planners did not see agri- fom mid-1962 to India the much-needed foreign cultural factor productivity as mid-1972 came in food exchange to import inter- the obvious engine of - aid, causing concern that mediate capital goods for broad-based cconomic growth, such aid had become a industrialization. Moreover, on which depended cheap | disincentive to domestic the sale of food aid provided food, employment, income, prodtciaon domestic revenue to finance savings, investment, and public expenditures, while markets for urban goods and keeping food prices, inflation, services. Agriculture was seen and real wages low. Over as a holding ground for surplus I 40 percent of India's net for- labor while industry would be eign resource transfers in the the primary source of employ- ten years from mid-1962 to ment and income generation. mid-1972 came in food aid, causing concern that such aid But industrialization (based on had become a disincentive to a minuscule, capital-intensive, domestic production.' heavy industrial sector) was unable to generate sufficient Agriculture, which provided jobs to achieve full employ- employment for almost ment. Planners considered 75 percent of India's popula- institutional changes (such as ion, was a major source of raw land reform, cooperative materials for industry, and farming, and community devel- offered a large market for opment) and infrastructure goods and services. Indian development (such as irriga- consumers, particularly the tion) to address the basic needs poor, spent over two-thirds of of India's farm households. their budget on food. Given the Rasing the motivation of the large share of food consump- largely illiterate Indian farm tion in the urban consumer households was considered an budget, food prices determined important challenge. 7 The Evolving Role of the World Bank Infludnced by the Soviet state allocative efficiency of and China's cooperative farms, traditional farming and stressed Indians saw the importance of the importance of technical institutional reforms and change in increasing farm investment in irrigation. But productivity. Influential people Foodgrain production fell. the public sector continued to in India (such as A. P. Jain, then by more than five million I focus on-and monopolize- Minister of Food and tons in 1957-58, such "basic" industries as steel Agriculture) also began to stress contributing to India's and power. the role of price incentives in first major balance of promoting growth in firm out- payments crisis- In 1958, In line with development think- pu, but such advice was slow India cuet back on its Iingof the time, donors such as to penetrate the ruling party, Itie World Bank and USAID which favored institutional inetgvestment proghra ad wholeheartedly supported the reforms? Foodgrain production Indian priority on heavy fell by more than five million riority to) agriculture +industry and infrastructure tons in 1957-58, contributing development and underwrote to India's first major balance of India!s economic strategy payments crisis. In 19S8, India financially. Nevertheless, from cut back on its investment the mid-1950s, the thrust of program and agreed to give World Bank and U.S. advice on higher priority to agriculture. agriculture had begun to promote the importance of The World Bank coordinated price incentives, technological donor efforts to meet the change, investment in irrigation Indian crisis and created one of and fertilizers The intellectual the first Bank-led Aid foundation for that view began Consortia. It also established a to emerge with, among others, resident mission in New Delhi W. David Hopper's work on But problems with foodgrain Senapur village in the state of production and the balance of Uttar Pradesh in the 1950s on payments turned out to be far the theme of the poor but from temporary. In the early rational farmer, which later 1960s, food production formed the basis of T.W. stagnated. Two successive Schultz's book, Transforming droughts in 1965-66 and -taditionalAgriculture. 1966-67, caused annual food Hopper's work emphasized the imports to rise to 10 million 8 South Asia's Food Crisis and 11 million tons, respec- India was also engaged in a direly. The droughts also came dispute with the United States at a time when the Third Five over investmentt in a public Year Plan's ambitious targets of sector fertilizer plant by industrial expansion had Bechtel Corporation. It was increased import demand for disappointed at not receiving intermediate goods while sufficient military aid from the exports had stagnated-acrating United States during wars w,,ith another balance of payments China (m 1962) and Pakistan crisis. India lacked both the (in 1965), and it opposed the foreign exchange to import the Vietnamn War. Donors were food and the port and handling beginning to suffr from aid capacity to receive, store, fatigue. and tranisport miassive food aid shipments from the By the mid-1960s, weaknesses United States.1'2 in Indian development policy-- and particularly the failure Of Changes in the global political the agricultural sectr -gen6er- and food situation and ated a consensus among worsening bilateral relations outsiders that India's policies with the United States and its and programs in agriculture neighbors combined to weaken needed change. By 1965, India's external position. Indlian scientists were fieldt United States food surpluse-s testing many new varieties of had also begun to decline. wheat developed by Dr. Tlo sucessive dmougbts President Johnson was Norman Borlaug in Mexico. In in 196S-660and11966-67, reluctant to go to Congress for November 1965, Orville fod more food aid for India. By his Freeman, U.S. Secretary of own admission, the lives of Agriculture under President &n o1Wt 10I million and II million almost SO million Indians were Johnson, signed a secret agree- ± at risk. He held out against the ment (the so called Treaty of tOSttjewl urging of all his advisers and a Rome) with India's Minister of "shrill (United States) press" to Agriculture, C. Subramaniamn, induce other nations to lend committing India to extensive India a helping hand in the agricultural sector reforms. short run, to make India That agreement was followed self-reliant in the long run." by the 'Woods-Mehra" The Evolving Role of the World Bank agreement in May 1966, Agricultural Prices Commission - between the World Bank (APC) to ensure the systematic President George Woods and formulation of floor prices Pthe Indian Plning Minister, (based on cost of production Asoka Mehta. The agreement and other consideratons) on a was intended to create a regular basis. Crawford also well-focused program of supported a Food Corporation incentives, technologies, and of India (FCI) to implement an -instrnional reforms for tans- effectve price support forming India's agricultare. The program? The APC and FCI World Bank's controversial Bell became the two major pillars of Mission Report in 1965 also set India's agricultural price policy out clearly Indias macroeco- over the next thirty years. nomic and agricultural sector More than thirty years later, problems, but its recommended 1991-92, the public sector -devaluation of the Indian rmpee procured 183 million tons of took the spotlight away from grain and made available SirJohn Crawford's important 18i8 million tons for retail agricultural sector review. public distribution through 8,000 fair price shops. About observed that Indas The Crawford report observed 80 percent of that procurement farmers were unlikely to that India's farmers were came from only three states. adopt new thnology unlikely to adopt new This system of public unless there was public technology unless there was procurement and distribution, interention tbrougb price public intervention through however, is now in need of supp7Yorts andZan effective - price supports and an effective major reform. ppulic systerm of grain procure- Public systemn of grain nment, which would increase The Crawford Report also prosddacurement whofich -profitability by raising and recommended: stabilizing producer price ablity by raising anrd .levels. It recommended an * Substantial increases in stabilizing producer pnce increase in support prices for miports of fertilizers and their levels rice (which were raised by allocation to irrigated areas nearly a third from 1964 to and to progressive farmers 1969) and wheat (raised by who had the capacity to take alnost half). It also supported risks in the adoption of new the newly established technology. 10 South Asia's Food Crisis * A timely supply of high- with Indian agriculral quality, improved seed. scientists to undertake experiments on high-yielding * A liberal and timey supply varieties of wheat (developed in of agriculural credit to Mexico at the International The Rocdfeller facilite the use of ferdfizers Center for the Improvement of Fodtion, meanwbile; and other inputs. Maize and Wheat) and rice had been workig wit (developed in Taiwan and at the d r *Cost-effecive and siry RiIteatil Rice Research desirable use of fertilizer Institute in the Philippines). sientists to undertake subsidies where prevling Both had shown dramatic ofl higb prices discouraged the liberal results. Where there was ample yielding vrieties of wheat use of ferdlizers. water and high doses of frtili- ... and ie ers, they yielded 6 to 8 tons as - Reliance on and expansion compared to 1 to 2 tons with of the irriation system. traditional farm practices and few inputs. Yet in India, there Influenced by the Crawford was considerable resistance Group, Bank lending to India from scentists and admin- increased in the 1970s, isrators. The Rockefeller contributing significandy to Foundation conduded that mnintaining the momentum of Indi's agriculural research, te Green Revolution. The extension, and seed produciion Bank was less successful, system needed radical revamp- however in mobilizing the ing if itwas to meCt the praci-I promised aid to meet India7s cal needs of Indian farmers. It growing import needs. Net recommended admini ve foreign resource transfers changes in the Indian Council (20 percent of both gross of Agriculural Research (ICAR) domestic investment and cen- including vesting leadership in tral government expenditures scientists rather than adminis- in 1966-67) declined to a mere trators and ingsalaryand 1.7 and 19 percent in less than promotions to well-defined five years in 1970-71. performance standards for farmer-oriented researchers. The Rockefeler Foundadon, USAID, which supported policy meanwhile, had been working changes, recommended a land 11 The Evolving lRole of the World Bank grant system of unversities regional income disparities, responsible for research, social scientists opposed the extension, and training in place concentration of fertilizer and of the departments of credit in setes with the most agricultmre at the stare level. water controL Some argued Such reshaping was crucial to that land reform needed to ensure the high returns to the precede the introduction of pricing, fertilizer, and credit new technologies. policy reforms recommended by the Crawford Group. India's economic crisis and inadequate foreign aid pushed To implement reforms in the Prime Minister Shastri and face of widespread opposition, later Mrs Gandhi to go along Prime Minister Shastri, in a with the recommendations of shrewd move, persuaded the the World Bank and United strong and abl C. Subra- States. But the prime movers maniam to take on the behind the reforms, apart from agriculturl portfolio. Mr. C Subramaniam was his To fimlement reforms Opposition came from several Secretary of Agriculture, Mr. m -the fi of w d - quarters India's scientists Sivraman; and the Director resisted the changes being General of ICAR (and later sought in research. Lefist Secretary of Science and Shastr4 nr a shrewd mous political parties opposed the Technology), Dr. ML S. persuaded the strong and importaton and distribution of Swaminathan. Scores of Indian able C Subramarnam improved seed on grounds that scientists and administrators to take on the agricdturad it increased India7s dependence played a key role in adapting portfolio on the West The Ministry of and multiplying hybrid wheat Fmance was reluctant to and rice and developing the -allocate foreign exchange and network of services to meet the budge resources to import complex needs of India's seed and fertilizer and pay for millions of farm households. In higher producer prices. State the midst of a foreign exchange governments opposed the crsis Mr. Subramaniam divestment of research and persuaded India's cabinet to extension, to autonomous import 18,000 tons of wheat .agriculural universities- On the seed from Mexico. Ten years grounds that it would increase later, India had raised produrer 12 South Asia's Food Crisis prices and instituted a large imports of fertilizer and other food procurement system, inputs. Although lending for adapted and developed over agriculture continued to 200 wheat and rice varieties, increase until the mid-1980s, and greatly expanded the agriculture's share of total Although the Bank played supply of irrigation water, agri- lending dropped to 33 percent only a small role in cultural credit and ferdlizers to in 1982-87' and has fallen creating the physical and millions of small farmers. sharply in both absolute and institutional infrastructure relative terns since. for launching the Green Sustaining the Revolution Revoluction, Indians saw This decline stems from the * Although the Bank played only global shift toward increased its assurae of ssnce a smal role in creating the efficiency, an emphasis on to agfidtuTe in the physical and institutional (macroeconomic) policy mid-1960s as crucial to infrastructure for launching the reforms, the role of markets the lawnching of the new Green Revolution, Indias saw and prices, and a reduced strategy its assurance of assistance to emphasis on public invest- agriculture in thu mid-1960s as ments. Growing food surpluses crucial to the launching of the in OECD countries, and declin- new strategy.4 More ing world prices of cereals and significantly, the Bank became a fertilizers reduced returns on long-term partner of the investment in irigation and Government of India. Bank ferdlizer production capacity. lending to India for agriculture India's agricultural subsidies, and rural development in the which had grown to equal total McNamara years (1968-81) planned public investment in increased from $124 million in agriculture and its growing 1950-68 (6 percent of all foodgrain stocks also became a lending to India) to $687 mil- cause for concern." Moreover, lion (31 percent) in 1969-74. the expanding lending came at Agricultural lending increased the expense of addressing even more sharply to about fundamental problems in $4.2 billion (50 percent) in Indian agriculture. This led to 1975-81. In addition, through growing criticism by Bank staff nonproject lending in about the quality of the agricul- - 1967-76, the Bank provided tural portfolio and externally $311 million to support by environmentalists about, for 13 The Evolving Role of the World Bank example, the adverse environ- accounted for a small share, ment impact of irrigation and they were instrumental in chemical inputs. Such criticism alleviating seed shortages (for have contributed to a decline in example, the Tarai Seed the Bank's global lending to Project). They also spread new agriculture, of which ludia was crop technologies among only a part. millions of small farmers through location specific India7s share in the Bank's adaptive research, training and total agricultural lending to visit extension. Likewise, area the South Asian region, development projects played a which stood at 73 percent small role, but financed in 1975-81, decliaed to technology and infrastructure 56 percent in 1988-93. The components- Forestry and number of projects financed by watershed management the Bank showed a similar followed later. trend. It had increased from ni.;: in 1950-68 to twenty-four IDA has played a critical role in 1969-74 and sixty-two in in susmining the Green 1975-81. By 1981, agriculture Revolution, financing eighty- and rural development and six of the ninety-six operations related lending accounted for by 1981 and 135 of the 159 48 percent of the projects and operations by 1993. It has also programs financed by the Bank provided over 90 percent of IDA has played a criticl in .ndia, but that dropped, to lending commitments in the role in susta=ing the 26 percent in 1988-93. 1968-81 period. Without Green Revolutio fina, c- - iDA, the Bank would not have ing eighty-six of the nine- Irligaton, fertizer, and credit been able to promote food projects dominated the Bank's production in India. Like most sxertsb 1981 agiclture and rural develop- other developing counties, and 135 of t«e 159 opera ment portfolio, accounting for India was hesitant to borrow tions by 1993. It has also .aover 67 percent of the totaL for agriculture on IBRD terms provided over 90 percent Seed, rearc and extension because of the long gestation of lending commitments were other agculural projects lags in achieving response in in the 1968-81 period financed by the Bank to sustain agriculture, its subsistence the Green Revolution. rather than export-oriented Although these projects nature, and the difficulty in 14 South Asia's Food Crisis capturing benefits of technolo- major restructuring for gy generation from a large improved efficiency and number of dispersed farmers. growth Fertilier Supply SeedProduction The Banies support for fertiliz- Despite large initial imports, The Bank szupported seed er import and production was shortages of the new high production through an crucial during India's extreme yielding varieties of seed for IBRD loan of $25 million fertilizer shortages in the late wheat, rice, and maize became in 1976 and an IDA 1960s and the 1970s. Without widespread in the late 1960sL credit of $16 million in increased ferilizer use, food This ca[led for supervision and 1 n s production would not have quaity control at varous stages I increased to the level it did. of breeding, production of in Funds for the import of foundation seed, and comrner- fertilizers, plant protecton cial production of seed for a to 28,000 tons in 1973 material, anid agriculral market which had not yet been and over 200,000 tons by machinery augmented input developed. Hgh quality seed 1981 supplies in the short-run, while supply needed public invest- Iending for the development ments in plant aLd equipment and rehabilitation of fertlizer for screening and dryin. In production built new capadty. addidion to the 1969 loan, the By making free foreign Bank supported seed produc- exchange available and tion through an IBRD loan of requiring international $25 million in 1976 and an competitive bidding, World IDA credit of $16 million in Bank projects ensured internal- 1978. India's seed production ly compatible and technically increased from 420 tons in efficient plants. But increased 1966 to 28,000 tons in 1973 fertilizer usr, in irrigated areas and over 200,000 tons by has now become a cause for 1981. Now a combination of concern as marinal retUrns to rapid liberalization of seed fertilizer use are peaking. production and distribution, Fertilizer subsidies have now combined with stringent public become a major source of regulation of quality control, concern for the budget, and the will greatly accelerate diversifi- fertilizer sector is in need of cation of indian agriculture. is The Evolving Role of the World Bank Credit ongoing large scale surface irrigation projects and, later, Bank lending to rural credit improvements in distribution projects in 1970-74 amounted systems. This was followed by to more than $325 million, investments in rehabilitation directed mainly at developing and modernization of the groundwater resources in the existing irrigation systems, private sector. While lending to construction of medium and India's irrigation systems public sector tubewelis was minor irrigation schemes, and are among the largest m less successful, the Bank has introduction of new technology the world They present estimated that private sector for public tubewells. complex technological, tubeweli irrigation had institwional, and economic rates of return of India's irrigation systems are environmental challenges - well over 30 percent and have among the largest in the world. impacted over 2 million They present complex techno- in design a7td manage- i hectares with at least that many logical, institutional, and ment, with particular - m households. The Bank's environmental challenges in difficulties in efficient contribution to the develop- design and management, with water allocation across ment of a viable rural financial paricular difficultes m states, watersheds. house- infrastructure through support efficent water allocation across holds, seasons, and crops of the Agricultural Refinance states, watersheds, households, and Development Corporation, seasons, and crops. These however, has been undermined problems are due pardy to by poor loan recovcry, subsi- intense competition among dized interest rates, and states for acquiring control of political interference in the scarce water resource. To rnanagement. The future of establish political support for Bank involvement in agricul- acquiring water rights, the ture credit remams uncertain. states have tended to design irrgation systems stretching Irrigation access among as many farmers as possible. The resulting The Bank provided about $1.6 overinvestment in physical billion to projects with the infrastructure and underinvest- potential to irrigate 5 million ment in design of institutional hectares. Its early support arrangements to deal with the focused on the completion of complex technical, equity, and 16 South Asia's Food Crisis efficiency issues has In reality, irrigation problems contributed to a suboptimal tend to be highly diverse, performance of both Indian complex and inextricably schemes and the Bank-financed related to climatic and socio- projects. cultural conditions. Their solution requires active cooper- India has yet to develop a ation among competing states national long-term strategy for and location-specific approach- water management Due to the es with the active participation politically sensitive nature of of the local communities in the water allocation issues among design and implementation of states, the Bank has been kept water management systems.'7 out of the loop. This has forced it to focus on individual The challenges still facing the schemes rather than the Bank and the Indian govern- development of river basins. ment in the area of water T'he Bank introduced many management include insu- innovations in its water tional reforms of interstate management strategies, such as allocation of water resources Irigation problems tend canat lining, the command area and local organizational Q . ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~to be kigbly dwverse, development programs, arrangements to deal with v a underground piped distribu- water distribution among tion, sprinkler irrigation and fanners, the problem of rent- rel to cltic and others. Some of these techno- seeking among irrigation . sra Zons. logical innovations were officials, and the need for a Their solution requires introduced to solve instituton- further reform of rate actwve cooperation among al problems, and others to structures for both greater competing states and improve the performance of efficiency in distribution and location-specific the main irrigation systems. better cost recovery.?3 a wih the active Although these innovations proved useful in some areas, Reseawzb andt . participation of the local their uniform applicability commies in the design across regions, agro-ecosystems Although Bank involvement in and imp ation and cropping patterns have agricultural research bas been of water management resulted in increased costs modest, the Bank has consid- systems without significant improve- ered its training and visit ment in performance. projects to be very successful. 17 The Evolving Role of the World Bank These promote a message- requirements, the region will oriented approach through a need adequate foreign Less than ten years after . highly structured training of exchange to import food. The the introduction of the extension workers and their shrinling global capacity to new agricultural strategy systematic interaction with deliver enough food and fertil- in India in 966-67, the farmers. The principles crucial izers could well affect world area under high yielding to its success include: a time- prices. Future increases in varieties had expanded bound program of farmer visits production, moreover, must be from less than 2 million and training by extension brought about with less incre- hectares to ouer workers, permitting dose mental use of modem inputs, supervision and merit-based such as water, fertilizers and 30illonectre Ipromotion; concentrated pesticides. The poor must reac*ed over 60 milo e or 6efforts to achieve a dear and command enough income to bectares in 1990 visible impact by working on have access to food and other the most important crops essentials for a healthy life. within the most promising These are daunting challenges. agro-ecosystems; regular visits and field trials with selected Less than ten years after the farmers who offer the best introducton of the new prospects for a rapid spread of agricultural strategy in India in innovations; and linkages with 1966-67, the area under high a vigorous farmer-responsive yielding varieties had expanded research program." Whether a from less than 2 million uniform approach to extension hectares to over 30 million across diverse production con- hectares. It reached over 60 ditions is desirable way need to million hecares in 1990. Over . be examined. the same period, fertilizer con- sumption rose from 1.1 million . Assessing the Revolution to over 12.5 million tons. Per hectare, use increased ten-fold, By the year 2000, the combined from 7 to 70 kilograms. From domestic production and crop year 1965-66 to 198889, imports of the South Asian irrigated area expanded from region will have to feed 30 million hectares to 45 mil- 1.4 billion people and by 2025, lion hectares increasing by two billion people. If domestic 50 percent the area double- production cannot meet these cropped, which now accounts 18 South Asia's Food Crisis for 27 percent of the sown Output Gains area. Most importantly, by 1989-90, average Indian yields The combined impact of these had increased by more than developments was that food- 100 percent over the drought grain production increased by year yields of 1965-66 and 2.7 percent a year in 1966-90, 1966-67 and by 85 percent compared with 2.3 percent in over the predrought record 1950-66. This was a small yields of 1964-65. Yield increase in overall growth. growth, of course, has been far However, the qualitative greater in the areas covered by difference was immense. Much the Green Revolution.' of the increase in production Figure 2 Increases in agricultural production are mainly due to improvements in yields INDEX 1949 =100 180- area - E ! 20- - o I I I Ij 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 YiMeld ' INDEX 1949 =10D - 19 The Evolving Role of the World Bank prior to the Green Revolution fiscal 1989, 36 percent of food- came from area expansion. Most grain production and 80 percent came from increased yields and of the public cereal procurement I multiple cropping on irrigated came from three states that land. Indeed, area under cultiva- account for only 23 percent tion declined in the early 1990s of India's total area under without a decline in growth of foodgrains.' production (see Figure 2). Because the new technologies The growth in food production were neutral as between large has enabled India to manage and small farms, small farmers disastrous droughts without gained substantially. Employ- food aid-even in fiscal 1979, ment, both direct and indirect, when foodgrain production surged with the spread of new plunged by 22 million tons.2' technologies.' Recent evidence, The country's ability to stabilize however, suggests that the food supplies and prices for elasticity of employment with years has helped areas most respect to output has declined, vulnerable to food deficits, and that relatively litde especially in regions such as additional employment is being Bihar and Eastern Uttar Pradesh. generated. This seems to be the result of the Revolution's Regional Inequities and success in agriculture and of Neverthekss6 adoption Emnployment Growth multiplier effects in other of high-yielding vaites sectors of the economy, which bas been concerae Nevertheless, adoption of high- have caused considerable in the irrigated GTWJs, .yielding varieties has been tightening of labor markets I concentrated in the irrigated leading to increased real wages. areas, especially Punjab (where Certainly, the percentage of Hwyvana and - . 93 percent of the area under population below the official Uttar Pradesh foodgrains was irrigated in poverty line is far lower in the 198749; compared to the Green Revolution states-for all-India average of 33.2 per- example in Punjab (7.2 percent) cent), Haryana (82 percent) and and Haryana (11.6 percent)- Uttar Pradesh (54.9 percent). than in Bihar (40.8 percent) and Productivity differences among Orissa (44.7 percent). Thus, the . regions have widened so that in substitution of capital for labor 20 South Asia's Food Crisis in these areas seems to be have not been commensurate mainly a response to labor with the growth in food shortages and higher wages.24 production and that the By the 1980s, the Green reduction in poverty has been Revolution had begun to slow at best." Yct where spread to eastern Uttar 50 percent of Indians were I Pradesh, Bihar, and Orissa, once poor, poverty today is which have abundant ground under 30 percent overall, and Many feel that benefits to water and fertile lands but poor 33 percent in the rural areas. the poor, particularly in infrastructure and institutions. India's large public food distri- ; terms of increased food In these states there is little bution system has also helped consumption, have not evidence of substitution of to keep urban food prices and - been commensurate uith capital fir labor. Indeed, had real wages low. The low food -the growth in food there been better-functioning prices in turn have helped * a , . . . * ~~~~~~~~~prouction and that tbe institutions (that is secure land maintain political stability reduction in poverty. as tenure, efficient labor, capital and product markets, effective Another concern is the growth . slow at best. Yet state and local governments) of subsidies, which now rival zwbere 50 percent of and better physical infra- planned public expenditures on Indis were once poor, structure (roads and irrigation agriculture in India. Fertilizer poverty today is under 30 systems), the Green Revolution subsidies alone amounted to percent overall, and 33 would have spread much more one percent of GDV a major percent in the rural areas rapidly. Given the high risks fiscal, environmental, and and costs involved in adopting poverty concern. To the extent new technology, it is not that public sector resources are surprising that the Revolution allocated to subsidies, (which came first to better-organized benefit the few), they compete states and richer farms. But with resources that could be India's half-hearted land invested in poorer regions. reform effort has only tended Improvement in infrastructure to make tenants more insecure. helps spread new technologies Institutional reforms are faster and thereby creates mo:e overdue. employment and generates food. Moreover, reduction of Many feel that benefits to the subsidies on irrigation water, poor, particularly in terms of ferdlizers and electricity- increased food consumption, which now together amount to 21 - - . . : . < - - The Evolving Role of the World Bank some $4.6 billioni discourages argument for finding rational, their inefficient and wasteful scientifically sound solutions to use. In these areas, efficient the emotion-charged problems While the agricultural production, environmental pro- of poverty, food security and strategies proposed by tection, and fiscal prudence the enviromnent. vaious groups for India converge. T W contributed to the Green , . ~~~That environmental and Revolution's success, the . poverty concerns do not always The World Bank does not work implementation of these intersect is illustrated by the alone. All its operations in India strategies owes much controversial Sardar Sarovar were devised and carried out by to the fruitful partnrship Dam Project. One of the largest Indians and often supported by between India and the projects of its kind in the other donors. For example, in World Bank and bilateral world, it is intended to produce irrigation, India had a large donors 1200 megawatts of electric internal capacity for develop- power, domestic water for ment before the Bank arrived. 40 midlion people, irrigation for The Bank helped to expand its 1.8 million hectares of land, supply and introduced engi- and 3.8 million tons of neering innovations. additional grain, enough to feed Agricultural research and the 18 million people. Its spread of new high yielding costs are environmental varieties of cereals were the degradation and the displace- result of long term collabora- ment of some 100,000 families tive efforts among the Bank, in a country that still contains U.S. official bilateral aid, over 200 million poor and private foundation assistance, whose population is projected and the Indian international sci- to increase by over 500 million entific community. Initially, the persons between 1990 and Bank helped spread the new 2025.' Yet public debate over technologies more rapidly by irrigation remains sadly fostering seed and fertilizer pro- uninformed, and a systematic duction and increasing small analysis is called for to counter farmers' access to inputs and the incomplete measures now extension. Only recently has it proposed and implemented?" become involved in supporting The success of India's Green research. While the agricultural Revolution makes a strong strategies proposed by various 22 South Asia's Food Crisis groups for India contributed to experience shows that even Sequencing and phasing the Green Revolution's success, with spectacular technologies are important. It may be the implementation of these for irrigated agriculture, price necessary to make the strategies owes much to the incentives are essential to difficult political choices fruiful partnership between generate and sustain rapid India and the World Bank and technological change. bilateral donors.'m Although, if sustained, price financrl, ad h-uman supports become a crutch to resources on areas wtth For its part, India helped the inefficient farmers, they are the highest agricultural World Bank increase its under- crucial in the early stages of potentiaL In India, such standing of the fumdamental development. Notwithstanding concentration provuded interactions of agriculture, the many weaknesses of the policy makers witb much poverty alleviation, and envi- seed-fertilizer technology, it has needued breathing space to ronmental development efforts. had a tremendous positive ade complex second In particular, the Bank saw how effect Policymakers must not g c a substantial presence on the throw the baby of the Green ground made it more respon- Revolution out with the bath ared and sive to India's actual needs. water, and instead must address - ?WaC problems the complex second-generation m n7ngated areas Lessons and Challenges problems. The World Bank-India partner- * Sequencing and phasing are ship, in sustining the Green important It may be necessary Revolution, offers several to make the difficult political lessons for designing and devel- choices to concentrate physical, oping programs and policies to financial, and human resources combat hunger in other parts on areas with the highest of the world, especially Africa agricultural potential. In India, such concentration provided * For agriculture to move poLicy makers with much need- forward, productive technology ed breathing space to address and sound and stable national complex second-generation policy are equally indispens- challenges of semiarid areas able. Promoting one at the and enviromnental problems in cost of the other will yield few irrigated areas. While irrigated results, particularly in rainfed areas were attended to first in areas. Moreover, India's India, in Africa, the choice 23 . f , - - - .. .- - . The Evolving Role of the World Bank often tends to be between areas human capital through of assured high rainfa land education and training and With pressures to reduce - good soils and less well develop effective organizational bilateral aid generally, and* endowed areas with insufficient structures that can simuI- the limited resources S . physical and administrative taneously address the infrasthructur. Donors in Africa productivity and environmental nthedisposal ofesuchinsSter have generaLly sought to =suinbility conundrum address the problems of the Consultatve Group o1 ,poorest of the poor households * With pressures to reduce InternationalAgricudtural in resource poor areas. It is bilateral aid geeraily, and the Research (CGJARL), the now time to consider the limited resources at the Bank becomes even more complex preconditions needed disposal of such international important as coordnator to achieve and sstai techno- agencies as the Consultative of partnerships ~j logical changes that can address Group on International mnobilizer ofinternational the continents growing Agricultural Research (CGIAR), .n,nna±io, 0 ~agricultural and food crisis? the Bank becomes even more important as coordinator of and .advie The human, physical and partnerships and mobilizer of _nstitutional infrastructure international information, needed to disseminate proven funding, and advice. As a technologies is crucial. To facilitator, the Bank can help to ensure high rates of retrn on promote insututional reform at past investments in human and the national, state, and local insttutional capacity, the Bank levels to promote technology in India helped expand existing transfer viral to the future of physical infuc Today it the world's developing must help countries generate countries. 24-- South Asia's Food Crsis Notes 1. This paper uses the Bank's traditional definition of South Asia as induding fghanistan, Bangadcesh, Bhutan, India, Nepa, Paistan, and Sri Lanka. 2. Lending for agricule and rural development is defined to include th lending for agricu and rural development (as defined in the Wod Bank's annual reports) and lending for related projects such as fetilizers, rural clectrification, and otes 3- The World Bank,IDA in&vspee4 1982. 4. Paistans agrcultural output was growig at an annual rate of over 6 percent in the late 1960s. See llA in etrospec, 1982 for detal 5. Johnson 1971. 6. The WoMrlBwmk Snce Brdton Woods The Brookings Instuion. Washinston, D.C 1971 (p. 67S). 7. Lele and Goldsmith 1989. S. cde 1991. 9. RosCn 1985. 10. Subramaniam 1979. 11. Johnson, ibid. 12 As a result of the recomecndadions made by the AgicuEal Prics Commitee chaired by LIC Jha, the APC and FCI were permanentlycStab-I lished in mid-1964. The World Bank's am in IDA in Rerospect that these instutions were stabhlished as a result of Bll MLisio recommenda- nons is incorrect Howeei the Bank's insistnce of incentive s snce the mid-1950s must have had some influence on their creation. 13. Table IX.1, page 219 in John W Melor, The New Economcs of Growth, Conell Univcrisqt Ithaca, N.Y. 1976. 14. See Subramaniamls statement in IDA in Rerospect 15. Since the Bank's lendg for ARD accelerated after the launimg of the Green Revolution in Ibdia and McNamra's arrival at the Bankl we have divided the lendig period ito three period, namely the pre-McNamam years (1950-1968), the McNamara years (1969-1981), and the post-McNamara years (1982-1993). The ltr two peiods have each been further divided into two sub-periods of almost equal duruaion to show trends thoughout the periods. 25 The Evolving Role of the World Bank 16. Balu Bumb "World Bank Conditionality in Irrigation Projects: An Assessmente' Unpublished World Bank paper. May 1986. 17. Berkoff 1990, Frederikson and others 1993, and Wade 1982 18. RaIu Bumb, op cit. 19. D. kenor andj. Q. Harrison, Ag,icdturl Extension The Taningand Ws Sysem, World Bankl Washington Li.% 1977. 20. Ministry of Agriculum Indian Agriculure in Brief, various issues. Delhi: Government of India, 1978-1993. 21; This decline is almost identical to the sum of declincs in foodgrain produc- tion in 1957-58 (5.5 million tons) and 1965-6 (17 million tons) both of which triggered major food and foreign exchange crises. 22. Based on Bank lending for 7 million hectares of additional irrigated area, realization of 80 percent of irrigaion potential, and incrementd yield of 2 tons to 25 tons per hecrare, the Bank may be estimated to have con- tnbuted 11 to 14 million tons of additional annual food/grain production. 23. Melor, id. 24. C HL Hranumntha Rao. Agricrdtwrl Grwth, Rural Povr," mad EmsumenalDgmdatin in nki. DelhB Oxford Uniesi Pres,s 1994. 2S5 Sarma 1981 and 1990. 26. World Bank. 1993 27 World Bank 1991. 28. David Sccle The SanlarSirowarProja in Indima A Commntary of the Report of tbe Independent Review Center for Economic Pbliq Studies: Ariigpn, Viriia, 1992. 29. G. Le Moigne, S- Barghouti, and L Garbus. -Developing and Improving Irigarton and Draiage Sysems: Selected Papers from World Bank Seminars? World Bank Technical Paper Number 178, 1992. D.J.W Berkoff, Irrigation Management on the Indo-Gangetic Plain. World Bank TechnicaI Paper Number 129, 1990. 30. Ministry of Agriculture 3I Uma Lele, edL Aid to Afria Agriiczdzu Lessons from Two Decades of Donors'? peren Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore, 1993. 26 South Asia's Food Crisis Works Cited Ahluwulia, Montek S. "Rural Povcrty, Agricultural Production, and Prices: A Reeamiaton," in Mellor and Desai, 1985. Bardhan, Pranb IC. "Poverty and TriciJde-down' in Rural India: A Quanttative Analysis," in Mellor and Desai, 1985. FAO Agrostat-PC, 1993 (computer data set). Fuhrman, Perr4 with Michal Shuman, "Now We Are Our Own Masters," Forbes, May 23, 1994, pp. 128-13. Johnson, Lyndon Baines. The Vantage Point New Yorlc Popula Uibrary, 1971. LA; ,Unma, and Manimohan AgarwaL. "Four Decade of Economic Development in India and the Role of External Assistance" in Leleand Nabi, 1991. Lele, Uma, and Arthur Goldsmith, The Developmen of National Agricultural Research Capaacy- India7s Experience with the Rockefeller Foundation and its Significance for Africa, monographic the Managig Agricultural Development in Africa series, 1989. LAe~, Urna and rhaz Nabi, eds Transitions in Dlevelopment- San Francisco: [CS Press, 1991. Mason, Edward. S., and Robert E. Asher. The World Bank Sinc Breaon Woods.Washingtonm The Brooldgs fInstitute, 1973. MeUort John W. "Determiinants of Rural Povertr~ in Mellor and Desui 198S. Meilor John W. The Newr Economics of Growth. Ithac, N.Y.: CornellUniest Press, 1976. Mdflor John W, and Gunvane M. Desai, eds. AgiutrChange and Rural Poverty~ Baltimorc- The Johns Hopkins Universiy Press, 198S. Ministry of Agriculture. India2n Agriculture in Brie4 various issues Delhi:- Government of India, 1978-1993. Mfinistry of Financet Economnic Survey, various issues. Delhi: Government of India, 1974-19.93. Paddock, William, and Paul Paddock Pamine, 1975!: Anmerica¶s DecWorn Who Wifl Sunvive. Boston: Little Brown, 1967. 27 001~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 9~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~9 tv~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~- - w~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~1 CZI, Distributors of World Bank Publications AIGENTINA. ECYP7, ARAB REPUIUC OF KENYA SAUDI ARABIA, QATAR Calm HIimd..L :AlAhAm Aidcs BUokiSeere (E.) LUL lJamr oatSar8 e Geia uGu Al Galsa Seet QuaHMoue.Mfazno 9Set P.O. BHo 3196 Flkrida li; 4th FoorC34/465 Cain P.O. Box45245 Riyadh 11471 1333 uenAis - irobi Theliddle EEtChbeter SICAPORETAIWAN. OFklna deelibia li_mm 41.tShedf5amet KOREA. REFUDLIC OF MY&NIMARABRUNEI A4%crdC0 Cairo PanKomBaokCnepmtrn GowcrAsaPacik Pelad. iSuom Airs P. Qot lOx I0eangwtiamum Golden WVhed Building FINLAND Seoul 41. KIlL"ng Piedin tl443 AUSTRALUA. FAPUA NEW GUINEA, Aimmninsn lIakatappa Sigpp- 1334 FIJLSOLOMONlAND P.O. 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