104069 MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA REGION GCC COUNTRY UNIT Air Pollution: Evidence from the Gulf Environmental Partnership and Action Program GCC Knowledge Series Sharing Innovative Solutions in RAS Business This note is the first in the GCC Knowledge Notes aimed to promote debate, discussion and dissemi- nation of knowledge for the most pertinent development questions the GCC region faces. It is based on the Pollution Load Assessment reports for Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar prepared as part of the Gulf Environmental Partnership and Action Program national activities led by Helena Naber and Samia Al-Duaij, with Sarath Guttikunda, Director, UrbanEmissions.Info as lead author. The author would like to thank Maria Vagliasindi, GCC SD Program Leader, Benoit Blarel, MNA Environment Practice Manager, and Nadir Mohammed, GCC Country Director, for their overall guidance, Maria Sarraf for chairing the Brown Bag Breakfast (BBB) which was held on December 1, 2015, Yewande Awe, Sameer Akbar and Ziad Nakat for leading the BBB discussion, and Bank participants from Riyadh, Kuwait and Washington, DC, for their most helpful comments.  1 Air Pollution: Evidence from the Gulf Environmental Partnership and Action Program Helena Naber, Senior Environmental Specialist, Environment & Natural Resources Global Practice Key Messages ■■ Air pollution is a significant cause of death and disease, and associated productivity losses. ■■ Air pollution load assessments were carried out with the environmental agencies in Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar, as part of the Gulf Environmental Partnership and Action Program to identify key challenges and solutions. ■■ Detailed technical models showed that vehicles and power generation are the major sources for the fine PM emissions while re-suspended dust dominates for the coarse particulate matter emissions. ■■ Common challenges identified include: natural dust as a key pollutant, followed by refineries, power plants, desalination units, transport (road and shipping); limited monitoring activities; lack of a common air quality index methodology in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region; and lack of a common data assimilation platform. ■■ Strengthening of the national air quality management systems should allow countries to approach the issue through collaboration and regional programs. ■■ The recently submitted Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) by all GCC countries provides a golden opportunity to further explore both at the sectoral and cross sectoral level opportunities to strengthen our current engagement. 2 GCC KNOWLEDGE SERIES: SHARING INNOVATIVE SOLUTIONS IN RAS BUSINESS Introduction A ir quality is at the nexus of health, energy, transport greenhouse gas controls, with the added attraction that and environmental issues. Air pollution is a sig- these benefits tend to accrue in the short term to those nificant cause of death and disease and associated reducing emissions. productivity losses. It ranks amongst the highest environmental burdens to health according to the Global As part of the Gulf Environmental Partnership and Action Burden of Disease Study and the World Health Organization, Program national activities phase, air pollution load assess- with some potential for underestimation through a lack of ments (PLA) were conducted in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar quantification for effects of NO2 and long-term exposure in 2012–13. The aim of the PLA was to understand the spatial to ozone, in particular. For example, in Bahrain, Kuwait, and temporal spread of air emissions from all known sources, and Qatar, the GBD estimates 773 deaths annually due which can be further integrated into the environmental to PM2.5. The chief source of CO2 is the combustion of monitoring and auditing systems in the three countries. the same fuels that also generate emissions of SO2, NOx This knowledge note provides an overview of the results of and fine particles. Accordingly, the co-benefits of reduced these efforts, the missing links, and discuss the proposed emissions of air pollutants may even exceed the costs of way forward for future engagements. Analytical Framework and Key Results The PLA program was designed to quantify the total load for SO2, NOx, VOC, and CO are mixed, with the industries, of air emissions and their contributions to the ambient air refineries, and power generation sectors dominating. pollution in each country, as a first step in designing the necessary technical capabilities to address the air quality Some of the common challenges across the three countries management issues and to further inform decision making. that were identified include: • Natural dust as a key pollutant, followed by refineries, Detailed technical models (emissions and dispersion mod- power plants, desalination units, transport (road and eling) were carried out with the environmental authorities shipping) of the three GCC countries (see Box 1). The PLA comple- • Diesel and heavy oil as major combustion fuels, leading mented the cost of environmental degradation studies to nodal NO2, VOC, and ozone pollution in the three countries, which highlighted that significant portion of the environmental damages are from air pollu- • High sulfur content in the diesel (above 2000ppm) at tion, in the form of health impacts. power plants and road transport • Limited monitoring activities Results showed that vehicles and power generation are • Lack of a common air quality index (AQI) methodology the major sources for the fine PM emissions (PM10 and in the GCC region PM2.5), while re-suspended dust dominates for the coarse • Lack of a common data assimilation platform particulate matter emissions (>PM10). The emission sources LESSONS LEARNED AND WAY FORWARD 3 Lessons Learned and Way Forward The PLA provides a sound foundation for designing and Several actions and studies may be undertaken to strengthen undertaking further actions to manage air quality in the the established capacity to address air quality in the GCC GCC region. Alternative interventions to control particulate region, including: matter pollution should be ranked based on the estimation • Enhancing air quality monitoring network; of costs and benefits associated with the prevention or • Building local capacity to continue the modeling reduction of disease and mortality through implementation exercises; of such interventions. 1 BOX PLA Analytical Assessments As part of the PLA, the following analytical assessments were carried out: An analysis of the air quality monitoring data for the primary pollutants; Emissions inventory from all known sources for PM, SO2, NOx, CO, and those necessary for the photochemical activity—non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOC); Section Power Vehicle Road Aircraft Natural Industries plants exhaust dust TOL dust Energy Vehicle In addition Energy Take offs consumed count, used to the consumed and landings information Statistical by fuel type emission vehicle in the over a 24 hr Online factors, used, silt plants cycle calculations standards, loading policy on the roads legislations Plant Vehicle Vehicle Plant type Airport location density, road density, road and location GIS data density, density, location population population Landuse density, density, maps hot spot hot spot locations locations Emissions @ 1 km x 1 km for PM, SO2, NOx, VOC, CO & CO2 (continued) 4 GCC KNOWLEDGE SERIES: SHARING INNOVATIVE SOLUTIONS IN RAS BUSINESS Dispersion modeling for all the criteria pollutants: PM10, PM2.5, SO2, NO2, CO, and ozone; and Assessment of pollution loads as an indication of the percentage contribution from various sources to the ambient particulate pollution for the selected hot-spot regions, such as the areas covering the power plants, industries, and urban centers. Modeling Time dependent geo-referenced Post processing Emissions inventory 3D 3D meteorology Chemical landuse data Transport satellite data Modeling Maps & Data Initial and boundary conditions AQI Scale 72-hr Time Series 0–50 51–100 101–150 151–200 201–300 >300 Healthy Moderate Unhealthy Unhealthy Harmful Hazardous (sensitive groups) Individual, averages, worst cases, weighted averages • Enhancing collaboration with other agencies to obtain quality management system require to identify measures for raw data necessary for an effective emissions and pollu- improving air quality and assess their costs across sectors. tion load assessment at the national and urban scales. Identifying the main contributors to poor air quality is not enough. Policy makers need also to undertake a careful Strengthening of the national air quality management sys- cost effectiveness analysis to identify quick win actions in tems should allow the countries to approach the issue of the short run, and the most efficient mitigation strategies to air quality in a coordinated manner—through collaboration reduce air pollution taking into consideration the broader and regional programs particularly focusing on regional macro-economic and competitiveness goals. dust and pollution alerts. The recently submitted Intended Nationally Determined More broadly and because of the cross sectoral nature of Contribution (INDC) by all GCC countries provides a golden mitigation actions, the development of a comprehensive air opportunity to further explore both at the sectoral and LESSONS LEARNED AND WAY FORWARD 5 cross sectoral level opportunities to strengthen our cur- measuring and reporting, in terms of pollution and the rent engagement. At the global level, the majority of negative effects it may have on human health. INDCs cover seven categories of gases (CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs, SF6, NF3). Among GCC countries, some have Many GCC countries report sectoral actions that may sig- a relatively large coverage, for example Oman chose to nificant contribute to tackle air pollution. Bahrain National target CO2 CH4 N2O HFCs, PFCs, Kuwait chose to account Gas Company (Banagas) has completed a retrofit project for CO2, CH4 and N2O whereas other countries including of gas turbines which involves replacement of existing high Bahrain cover only CO2 and N2O but note that other gases NOx combustion liners resulting in an average reduction have only a marginal contribution to national emissions.1 of 44% NOx emissions from the power generation station. Among the GCC countries only the UAE indicated in its Motor Vehicles Standards and technical regulations are INDC submission that it has launched a process to develop adopted to reduce the emissions from gasoline and diesel a full national inventory of greenhouse gas emissions and engine vehicles in several countries, including the UAE, is also undertaking a process to improve its air quality Qatar and Bahrain. 1 It should also be noted that small islands such as Bahrain makes rela- tively minor contributions to global greenhouse gas emissions and mitiga- tion potential will largely depend on national circumstances, capacity and support. Bahrain’s limitations in its size, population and economy give rise to constraints in financing, technical capacities and options for emission- reduction technology well documented in the INDC submission. MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA REGION GCC COUNTRY UNIT Air Pollution: Evidence from the Gulf Environmental Partnership and Action Program