Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Central Asia Hydrometeorology Modernization Project (P120788) Central Asia Hydrometeorology Modernization Project (P120788) EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA | Central Asia | Social, Urban, Rural and Resilience Global Practice Global Practice | IBRD/IDA | Investment Project Financing | FY 2011 | Seq No: 13 | ARCHIVED on 12-Jun-2018 | ISR32976 | Implementing Agencies: Tajikhydromet, Kyrgyzhydromet, EC-IFAS Regional Center for Hydrology (RCH) Key Dates Key Project Dates Bank Approval Date:26-May-2011 Effectiveness Date:11-Nov-2011 Planned Mid Term Review Date:06-Oct-2014 Actual Mid-Term Review Date:17-May-2014 Original Closing Date:31-Aug-2016 Revised Closing Date:31-Dec-2018 Project Development Objectives Project Development Objective (from Project Appraisal Document) The objective of the Central Asia Hydrometeorology Modernization Project (CAHMP) is to improve the accuracy and timeliness of hydromet services in Central Asia, with particular focus on Kyrgyz Republic and Republic of Tajikistan. Has the Project Development Objective been changed since Board Approval of the Project Objective? No PHRPDODEL Components Name Component A: Strengthening regional coordination and information sharing.:(Cost $8.70 M) Component B: Strengthening of Hydromet Services in Kyrgyz Republic.:(Cost $6.00 M) Component C: Strengthening of Hydromet Services in Republic of Tajikistan.:(Cost $13.00 M) Overall Ratings Name Previous Rating Current Rating Progress towards achievement of PDO  Satisfactory  Satisfactory Overall Implementation Progress (IP)  Satisfactory  Satisfactory Overall Risk Rating  Substantial  Substantial Implementation Status and Key Decisions 6/12/2018 Page 1 of 14 Public Disclosure Copy Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Central Asia Hydrometeorology Modernization Project (P120788) CAHMP has played a key role in enhancing collaboration, information sharing and capacity building among four NMHSs in Central Asia. The project has made substantial progress in strengthening regional collaboration and institutional capacity of the four involved NMHSs. Through joint capacity building such as forecaster training, NMHS technical staff have developed operational relationships for collaboration, mutual support and recognition of the regional and national benefits of data sharing. The Project has also provided a management-level platform for Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan to closely collaborate, build consensus on forward-looking enhancements and agree the aspects of weather/climate and hydrological information services that need to be managed with a regional dimension. For example, the four countries are collaborating on operational regional numerical weather prediction, using global and regional resources and expertise to improve national weather forecasting under the Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project in Central Asia (SWFDP-CA). KyrgyzHydromet and TajikHydromet are improving their services and therefore their utility for government ministries, partners and the public. Within KyrgzyHydromet and TajikHydromet, mindsets and perceptions have gradually shifted from a traditional government scientific agency approach focusing on technical activities, to a more user-oriented service provider approach, increasingly focusing on understanding and meeting user information needs. Promoting this cultural shift, the Project has supported activities such as preparation and subsequent approval of business development plans for KyrgyzHydromet and TajikHydromet, which have further improved the potential for sustainability. In both cases, the statuses and budgets of these agencies have increased during project implementation, indicating improved recognition by government, in response to improved performance. In addition, KyrgyzHydromet and TajikHydromet are now able to contribute more information and expertise to regional efforts, for example leading the identification of regional capacity building needs for certain themes under the Bank’s Strengthening Early Warning of Mountain Hazards in Central Asia (P158373) technical assistance project. 6/12/2018 Page 2 of 14 Public Disclosure Copy Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Central Asia Hydrometeorology Modernization Project (P120788) 6/12/2018 Page 3 of 14 Public Disclosure Copy Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Central Asia Hydrometeorology Modernization Project (P120788) 6/12/2018 Page 4 of 14 Public Disclosure Copy Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Central Asia Hydrometeorology Modernization Project (P120788) 6/12/2018 Page 5 of 14 Public Disclosure Copy Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Central Asia Hydrometeorology Modernization Project (P120788) Risks Systematic Operations Risk-rating Tool Risk Category Rating at Approval Previous Rating Current Rating Political and Governance  --  Moderate  Moderate Macroeconomic  --  Moderate  Moderate Sector Strategies and Policies  --  Substantial  Substantial Technical Design of Project or Program  --  Substantial  Substantial Institutional Capacity for Implementation and Sustainability  --  Substantial  Substantial Fiduciary  --  Moderate  Moderate Environment and Social  --  Low  Low Stakeholders  --  Substantial  Substantial Other  --  --  -- Overall  --  Substantial  Substantial Results Project Development Objective Indicators PHINDPDOTBL  Increased accuracy of river flow forecasts (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target KgHM: 83% KgHM: 95% KgHM: 85% Value KgHM 62% TjHM 64% TjHM: 75% TjHM: 78% TjHM: 80% Date 31-Aug-2011 01-Dec-2017 01-Jun-2018 31-Dec-2018 6/12/2018 Page 6 of 14 Public Disclosure Copy Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Central Asia Hydrometeorology Modernization Project (P120788) PHINDPDOTBL  Increased accuracy and timeliness of basic weather forecasts (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target 76% for KgHM and 66% for TjHM KgHM: 94.7% KgHM: 94.2% KgHM: 85% Value TjHM: 85% TjHM: 85% TjHM: 85% Date 31-Aug-2011 01-Dec-2017 01-Jun-2018 31-Dec-2018 PHINDPDOTBL  Timeliness of weather forecast data (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target 1. Timeliness of weather forecast data: Kyrgyz KgHM: 2.80 KgHM: 3.81 KgHM: 3.81 Hydromet: Value Tajikhydromet - TjHM: 2.90 TjHM: 4.26 TjHM: 4.26 2. User satisfaction: Kyrgyz Hydromet: Tajikhydromet - Date 17-Jun-2016 01-Dec-2017 01-Jun-2018 31-Dec-2018 Overall Comments Intermediate Results Indicators PHINDIRITBL  (Comp B: Kyrgyz Republic, IRI 4) Increased institutional strength and sustainability of Kyrgyzhydromet (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Existing legal structure, KgHM prepared a list KgHM issued KgHM new operating procedures and of operational operational guidelines regulations and staffing are inadequate to guidelines necessary necessary for operations operational meet KgHM mission#s for operations in light of in light of their new guidelines Value needs. modernized business model, developed in infrastructure; the modernized line with new Investment and O&M terms of reference to infrastructure and new concept, needs far exceed KgHM draft these is being technologies. modernized budgets. developed. observation 6/12/2018 Page 7 of 14 Public Disclosure Copy Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Central Asia Hydrometeorology Modernization Project (P120788) infrastructure “Fee-for-service” and arrangements have technologies been piloted in few sectors, resulting in a Kyrgyzhydrome 7% increase in the t prepared a list special account funds. of operational The Marketing guidelines Department has necessary for initiated regular quality work in light of survey assessments of the modernized users, and is infrastructure; implementing the terms of simplification of the reference are payment system for being KgHM services. developed KgHM KgHM budget is now regulations and sufficient to cover O&M operation needs of regular guidelines fully operations. functioning “Fee-for- service” arrangements piloted in few sectors KgHM budget sufficient to cover O&M needs of regular operations Date 31-Aug-2011 01-Dec-2017 01-Jun-2018 31-Dec-2018 PHINDIRITBL  (Comp C: Tajikistan, IRI 3) Increased sustainability and strengthened performance of Tajikhydromet operations (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target New regulations and TjHM new operational guidelines regulations and developed in line with Five contracts worth TJS operational new concept, 45454 (US$ 5050) were guidelines modernized signed during Jan-May developed in Existing legal structure, observation 2018. Also, one Free- line with new operating procedures and infrastructure and Service contract was concept, staffing are inadequate to technologies are fully signed with the Institute modernized Value meet TjHM mission needs. functioning. of Water, Hydropower observation Investment and O&M and Ecology under the infrastructure needs far exceed TjHM “Fee-for-service” Academy of Sciences of and budgets. arrangement piloted in Tajikistan. technologies few sectors, in particular energy, TjHM agriculture, housing regulations and and transportation. For operational 10 months of 2017, 9 guidelines fully 6/12/2018 Page 8 of 14 Public Disclosure Copy Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Central Asia Hydrometeorology Modernization Project (P120788) contracts were signed functional for about US$5000. "Fee-for- In April 2017 TjHM service" requested the arrangement Environmental piloted in a few Protection Committee sectors to submit the draft budget of TjHM budget Tajikhydromet to the sufficient to Finance Ministry of cover O&M taking into account the needs of allocation of additional regular funds for the O&M of operations. the upgraded observation network. Currently, no additional funds for O & M are needed. Date 31-Aug-2011 01-Dec-2017 01-Jun-2018 31-Dec-2018 PHINDIRITBL  (Comp C: Tajikistan, IRI 5) Increased reliability of climate data (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Ability to Information on climate Ability to downscale Ability to downscale downscale to Value limited and of inadequate local scales for at least local scales for at least local scales for quality 90% of the country 90% of the country at least 90% of the country Date 31-Aug-2011 01-Dec-2017 01-Jun-2018 31-Dec-2018 PHINDIRITBL  (Comp B: Kyrgyz Republic, IRI 1) Improved status of hydrometeorological observation networks (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target 100% of meteostations 100% of meteostations 100% of meteostations 13% of meteostations gauging main gauging main meteo gauging main meteo gauging main meteo meteo parameters. parameters. parameters parameters 100% of stream 100% of stream gauges Value 44% of stream gauges 70% of stream gauges reporting reporting operational reporting operational data gauges operational data. data. reporting 70% stream gauges operational 95% stream gauges 95% stream gauges measuring discharges data measuring discharges. measuring discharges. 85% stream 6/12/2018 Page 9 of 14 Public Disclosure Copy Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Central Asia Hydrometeorology Modernization Project (P120788) gauges measuring discharges Date 31-Aug-2011 01-Dec-2017 01-Jun-2018 31-Dec-2018 PHINDIRITBL  (Comp B: Kyrgyz Republic, IRI 2) Better transmission of data to global telecommunication system (GTS) (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target 85% 85% Value 86.00 100.00 Date 31-Aug-2011 01-Dec-2017 01-Jun-2018 31-Dec-2018 PHINDIRITBL  (Comp C: Tajikistan, IRI 1) Improved status of hydrometeorological observation networks (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target 90% of meteostations gauging main 100% of meteostations 100% of meteostations meteo 19% of meteostations gauging main meteo gauging main meteo parameters gauging main meteo parameters parameters parameters 50% of stream 50% of stream gauges 50% of stream gauges gauges Value 16% of stream gauges reporting operational reporting operational reporting reporting operational data data data operational data 49% stream gauges 60% stream gauges 61% stream gauges measuring discharges measuring discharges measuring discharges 90% stream gauges measuring discharges Date 31-Aug-2011 01-Dec-2017 01-Jun-2018 31-Dec-2018 6/12/2018 Page 10 of 14 Public Disclosure Copy Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Central Asia Hydrometeorology Modernization Project (P120788) PHINDIRITBL  (Comp C: Tajikistan, IRI 2) Better transmission of data to global telecommunication system (GTS) (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 70.00 95.00 96.50 100.00 Date 31-Aug-2011 01-Dec-2017 01-Jun-2018 31-Dec-2018 PHINDIRITBL  (Comp A: EC-IFAS, IRI 1): Improved access to national and regional numeric weather prediction products to all CA countries (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target 13 x 13 km every 6 hours Numerical weather The calculation results predictions at 13.2 x based on ftp are being 13.2 km resolution are transmitted for the being delivered via ftp regional grid of every 6 hours. resolution 13.2x13.2 km using the adapted COSMO-CA at 6 x 6 km COSMO technology in resolution for all of Uzhydromet and other Central Asia and 2 x 2 NHMS CAs. km resolution for the mountainous regions for The system of local 24-hour forecasts has calculations for been established. 100x250 km transmitted 13x13 km every Value COSMO-CentralAsia-2 every 12 hours 6 hours with a resolution of 2x2 On the old server km is organized. COSMO-CA takes 8 hours for computations, The COSMO-CA-2 rendering it ineffective technology software for operational was developed for forecasting. The new further installation at high-speed server has Uzhydromet. been installed and the Installation of final technical issues to dedicated high run COSMO-CA on it powered computing are currently being facilities is currently sorted. under way at UzHydromet. Date 10-Dec-2015 01-Dec-2017 01-Jun-2018 31-Dec-2018 6/12/2018 Page 11 of 14 Public Disclosure Copy Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Central Asia Hydrometeorology Modernization Project (P120788) PHINDIRITBL  (Comp A: EC-IFAS, IRI 2): Established platform for integration of four NHMSs in CA (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Common methodology to verify hydromet forecasting accuracy developed and used. Installation of the Distance Learning System (DLS) is completed (Almaty, Bishkek, Dushanbe and Tashkent). Guidelines and approaches to regional procedures for emergency prevention agreed by CA NHMS in 2014. In Cholpon-Ata Lake Observatory of Regional Kyrgyzhydromet, a new approach regional training center Implementation of the adopted in on lakes and water cascading method of hydromet reservoirs was severe weather Lack of agreed regional forecasting and established for CA forecasting (SWFDP- approaches on knowledge decision- Value specialists. CA) is ongoing, focusing exchange and emergency making on operationalization at procedures mechanism for By December 2016, all Tashkent (UzHydromet) regional issues activities related to and data exchange. formalized creation of the regional among the four system to access to NHMSs in CA online information products based on satellite data in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan was completed. Implementation of the cascading method of severe weather forecasting (SWFDP- CA) is ongoing - it is operational and currently being transitioned from Moscow (RosHydromet) to Tashkent (UzHydromet). Date 10-Dec-2015 01-Dec-2017 01-Jun-2018 31-Dec-2018 6/12/2018 Page 12 of 14 Public Disclosure Copy Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Central Asia Hydrometeorology Modernization Project (P120788) PHINDIRITBL  (Component B: Kyrgyz Republic, IRI 3) Historical data archiving (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target 2,125,000 pages 2,125,000 pages Value 0.00 800,000 scanned scanned Date 31-Aug-2011 01-Dec-2017 01-Dec-2017 31-Dec-2018 PHINDIRITBL  (Component C Tajikistan, IRI 4): Historical data archiving (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target 1,130,500 pages - 1,130,500 pages - Value 0.00 scanning of data is scanning of data is 800,000 complete complete Date 31-Aug-2011 28-Oct-2016 28-Oct-2016 31-Dec-2018 Overall Comments Data on Financial Performance Disbursements (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Currency Original Revised Cancelled Disbursed Undisbursed Disbursed P120788 IDA-49340 Effective USD 5.10 5.10 0.00 4.29 0.40 91% P120788 IDA-H6770 Effective USD 8.70 8.70 0.00 7.27 0.73 91% P120788 IDA-H6780 Effective USD 0.90 0.90 0.00 0.80 0.08 91% P120788 IDA-H6790 Effective USD 6.00 6.00 0.00 5.55 0.00 100% P120788 TF-99848 Effective USD 7.00 7.00 0.00 6.85 0.15 98% Key Dates (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Approval Date Signing Date Effectiveness Date Orig. Closing Date Rev. Closing Date P120788 IDA-49340 Effective 26-May-2011 23-Aug-2011 03-May-2012 31-Aug-2016 31-Dec-2018 6/12/2018 Page 13 of 14 Public Disclosure Copy Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Central Asia Hydrometeorology Modernization Project (P120788) P120788 IDA-H6770 Effective 26-May-2011 12-Jul-2011 12-Jan-2012 31-Aug-2016 31-Dec-2018 P120788 IDA-H6780 Effective 26-May-2011 23-Aug-2011 03-May-2012 31-Aug-2016 31-Dec-2018 P120788 IDA-H6790 Effective 26-May-2011 13-Jul-2011 11-Nov-2011 31-Aug-2016 31-Dec-2018 P120788 TF-99848 Effective 13-Jul-2011 13-Jul-2011 11-Nov-2011 31-Aug-2016 31-Dec-2018 Cumulative Disbursements Restructuring History Level 2 Approved on 28-Jan-2016 ,Level 2 Approved on 23-Mar-2018 Related Project(s) P164780-Central Asia Hydrometeorology Modernization Project (CAHMP) Additional Financing 6/12/2018 Page 14 of 14 Public Disclosure Copy