The World Bank Mexico Reducing Inequality of Educational Opportunity Project (P149858) REPORT NO.: RES31304 DOCUMENT OF THE WORLD BANK RESTRUCTURING PAPER ON A PROPOSED PROJECT RESTRUCTURING OF MEXICO REDUCING INEQUALITY OF EDUCATIONAL OPPORTUNITY PROJECT APPROVED ON OCTOBER 24, 2014 TO UNITED MEXICAN STATES EDUCATION LATIN AMERICA AND CARIBBEAN Regional Vice President: Jorge Familiar Country Director: Pablo Saavedra Senior Global Practice Director: Jaime Saavedra Chanduvi Practice Manager/Manager: Reema Nayar Task Team Leader: Ciro Avitabile The World Bank Mexico Reducing Inequality of Educational Opportunity Project (P149858) ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ACUDE Towards a Democratic Culture (Hacia una Cultura Democrática A.C.) CAEEI State Academic Coordinator of Early Childhood Development (Coordinador Académico Estatal de Educación Inicial) CAREI Regional Academic Coordinator of Early Childhood Development (Coordinador Académico Regional de Educación Inicial) CEDI Child Development Evaluation Card (Cédula de Evaluación del Desarrollo Infantil) CNCH National Crusade Against Hunger (Cruzada Nacional contra el Hambre) CONAFE National Council for Education Development (Consejo Nacional de Fomento Educativo) ECD Early Childhood Development FORTALECE Community Strengthening for Education (Fortalecimiento Comunitario para la Educación) FY Fiscal Year GoM Government of Mexico HOME Home Observation for Measurement of the Environment Inventory ISR Implementation Status & Results Report KIDI Knowledge of Infant Development Inventory PLANEA National Plan for Assessments of Learning (Plan Nacional para las Evaluaciones de los Aprendizajes) PDO Project Development Objective SIIINAFE CONAFE’s Monitoring and Information System (Sistema Integral de Información e Infraestructura para el Fomento Educativo) WB World Bank The World Bank Mexico Reducing Inequality of Educational Opportunity Project (P149858) BASIC DATA Product Information Project ID Financing Instrument P149858 Investment Project Financing Original EA Category Current EA Category Not Required (C) Not Required (C) Approval Date Current Closing Date 24-Oct-2014 31-Dec-2018 Organizations Borrower Responsible Agency United Mexican States Consejo Nacional de Fomento Educativo (CONAFE) Project Development Objective (PDO) Original PDO The objectives of the Project are: (a) to improve parental competencies in early childhood development in targeted rural communities; and (b) increase the transition rate from the primary to the secondary education level in CONAFE- administered schools in targeted municipalities. The World Bank Mexico Reducing Inequality of Educational Opportunity Project (P149858) Summary Status of Financing Net Ln/Cr/Tf Approval Signing Effectiveness Closing Commitment Disbursed Undisbursed IBRD-84480 24-Oct-2014 14-Sep-2015 11-Dec-2015 31-Dec-2018 120.00 113.25 6.75 Policy Waiver(s) Does this restructuring trigger the need for any policy waiver(s)? No I. PROJECT STATUS AND RATIONALE FOR RESTRUCTURING 1. The Project was approved by the Board on October 24, 2014 and became effective on December 11, 2015. The Project has three components: (1) Early Childhood Development (ECD); (2) Mobile Pedagogical Support (Asesores Pedagógicos Itinerantes); and (3) Technical Cooperation, Research, and Innovation. 2. This is the second restructuring of this Project. The first restructuring was approved on January 10, 2018 and cancelled US$30 million (20%) of the original loan amount of US$150 million and adjusted the disbursement estimates, component costs, and disbursement category amounts accordingly. The proposed restructuring would adjust the Project’s Results Framework and Monitoring to: i) measure progress of PDO 1 more appropriately given the delays in hiring the firms responsible for designing the new parenting practices model; ii) demonstrate progress of intermediate results indicators more accurately by adjusting definitions and/or methodologies of calculating indicators (see Description of Proposed Changes section); and iii) reflect shifts in Project focus as explained in the following paragraphs. As a result, the Results Framework would be more representative of actual Project progress. 3. The Overall Implementation Progress rating was downgraded to Moderately Unsatisfactory in December 2017 because actual disbursements had been lower than originally estimated. Following the partial cancellation of US$30 million from the Loan in January 2018, disbursements have resumed in line with Project estimates with a total of US$94.8 million (79%) disbursed to date. The National Council for Education Development (Consejo Nacional de Fomento Educativo, CONAFE) estimates that about US$20 million will be disbursed by December 31, 2018. The remaining US$5 million are expected to be disbursed between the close of the Project and April 2019, when the disbursement period ends, therefore disbursing the entire Loan amount. 4. Progress towards achievement of the Project Development Objectives (PDO) was also downgraded to Moderately Unsatisfactory (MU) in the Implementation Status and Results Report (ISR) of December 2017 due to budgetary restrictions that hindered activities under Component 3, which consequently affected the quality of activities under Component 1 to improve the parental practices of caregivers of children ages 0-4. The budgetary constraints delayed CONAFE from hiring the firm responsible for implementing the new parenting practices model (Component 1) and the firm responsible for measuring PDO indicator 1 “Score of parenting practices among caregivers of children ages 0-4, in selected states” (Component 3). Because the two firms responsible for implementation and measurement of the intervention were not hired until later in the life of the Project (October 2017), progress towards achievement of the first PDO remained stagnant The World Bank Mexico Reducing Inequality of Educational Opportunity Project (P149858) and unmeasured until January 2018 when the design of the new parenting practices model was completed. This is a key Project activity that had been delayed significantly since 2015. To reflect this step forward in project implementation and the recent progress in improving the quality of CONAFE's ECD services, this Restructuring introduces adjustments to the instrument for measuring PDO 1. The aim is to mitigate the delays in applying the original instrument and to better measure the first development objective of improving parental competencies in early childhood development in targeted rural communities (see Description of Proposed Changes section). 5. In contrast, PDO indicator 2, which measures the transition rate from primary to lower secondary education for CONAFE administered school graduates in targeted municipalities, has been reported above the annual targets. An additional analysis to calculate the transition rate for school year 2017-2018 is being carried out based on the partial data CONAFE could collect due to the September 19, 2017 earthquake, which impacted the collection of administrative data. The results of this analysis will serve to report the updated and final transition rate and will provide additional data to measure the achievement of the second development objective. 6. Finally, although most intermediate results indicators are in line with or above the original targets, this Restructuring Paper also introduces minor adjustments to better reflect CONAFE’s current situation. II. DESCRIPTION OF PROPOSED CHANGES 1. The changes proposed under this restructuring have been discussed on various occasions with the GoM: during the Mid-Term Review Mission from September 6-8, 2017 and during two technical meetings, one from November 16-17, 2017, and the latest on May 15, 2018. The agreements were recorded in the corresponding Aide Memoires and Notes. 2. The proposed changes to the Results Framework are the following: a. Adjustments to PDO indicators: i. REVISED. PDO 1: Score of parenting practices among caregivers of children ages 0-4 in selected states – This indicator will be measured using the Knowledge of Infant Development Inventory (KIDI) instrument that measures the level of knowledge about parental practices among the caregivers, instead of the original Home Observation for Measurement of the Environment Inventory (HOME) instrument. The change in instrument was due to CONAFE’s budgetary restrictions. KIDI is a lower cost instrument compared to HOME, which requires more resources to be collected since it requires in-home observation. Additionally, according to an analysis done by the Bank’s Project team, KIDI has a high and strong correlation with the development of children’s language skills, measured by the MacArthur-Bates instrument, which is the main outcome that the program seeks to achieve. The same data collection firm that collected the baseline will apply the KIDI, a test-style instrument, to caregivers in December 2018 to measure the achieved progress. Given the change in instrument, the baseline and end target values have also been modified. Updated Indicator Definition: Mean of scores of parenting practices among caregivers of children ages 0-4 in selected states that attend sessions on a regular basis. Frequency: Baseline in December 2017 and follow-up in December 2018 Data Source/Methodology: Application of the KIDI instrument in selected rural communities Baseline: 54% (December 2017) The World Bank Mexico Reducing Inequality of Educational Opportunity Project (P149858) End target: 56% (December 2018) ii. NO CHANGE. PDO 2: Transition Rate from primary to secondary education for the graduates of CONAFE administered schools in selected CNCH municipalities b. Component 1: Early Childhood Development i. REVISED. Level of knowledge about early childhood practices among ECD promotores – Prior to this restructuring, the end target for the indicator had not been reflected in the WB system due to an omission error. The end target was established between CONAFE and the Bank team in late 2016 when the Bank presented CONAFE the baseline results of the indicator. The indicator is calculated based on a sample of promotores. Although the revised end target is slightly lower than the actual value of 71.8% (as of June 2018), this difference is not statistically significant. Therefore, the objective of the proposed target is to maintain the increase already achieved. Baseline: 66.5% (August 2014) End target: 70% (December 2018) ii. NEW. Level of knowledge about early childhood practices among CAEEI and CAREI figures – In August 2017, the Bank approved the financing of State Academic Coordinators of Early Childhood Development (CAEEI) and Regional Academic Coordinators of Early Childhood Development (CAREI). This indicator will be added to measure the figures’ knowledge of ECD using an adaptation of the KIDI instrument. The baseline was collected in February 2018. Indicator Definition: Percentage of correct answers on a survey that measures the knowledge about early childhood development and caregiving practices based on a version of the KIDI instrument adapted to the CONAFE curriculum. Frequency: Annual Data Source/Methodology: Survey given to all CAEEI and CAREI figures Responsibility for Data Collection: CONAFE Baseline: 77% (February 2018) End target: 80% (December 2018) iii. REVISED. Percentage of promotores who attended at least 2 capacity building sessions in the previous operational cycle – Prior to this restructuring, the end target for the indicator had not been established and was set as 0. The end target has now been updated to 100% to reflect CONAFE’s regulation mandating that all promotores attend 100% of training sessions. Baseline: 98.7% (August 2014) End target: 100% (December 2018) iv. REVISED. Number of ECD service points that are established and complete the minimum number of sessions provided for by the model at national level – The definition of this indicator will be modified and the end target will be reduced. In the last four ISRs of the Project (except April 2017 when updated indicator data was not available), CONAFE had reported a lower number for this indicator because they were reporting ECD services that were under their management and under State management. Although CONAFE’s ECD services have been increasing over the Project’s life, State The World Bank Mexico Reducing Inequality of Educational Opportunity Project (P149858) ECD services have been decreasing. Therefore, the indicator trend was not reflective of CONAFE’s services. The indicator will now report only ECD services managed by CONAFE and the updated end target will have the objective of maintaining the number of service points. During Project preparation, the original target was set to only raise the baseline marginally and then maintain this number throughout the Project’s life, focusing on the objective to improve the quality of the ECD program and not to increase coverage. Additionally, with the demographic changes and the decrease of 0-4 age children, the constant number of service points in a declining age group means a lower ratio of promotores to children. For this reason, the end target has been set to maintain the newly established baseline. Updated Indicator Definition: Number of service points – groups of caregivers meeting on a regular basis, convened by a promotor to participate in the ECD sessions – administered by CONAFE. The number of sessions per year varies by model, depending on whether the target is parents, children or expectant mothers. Baseline: 17,833 (August 2014) End target: 17,833 (December 2018) v. REVISED. Number of fathers and mothers educated on the ECD model at national level – The name of this indicator, as well its definition, will be modified. Control of parents’ attendance to sessions is carried out directly by the promotor and the information is only handled internally in each of the service points. CONAFE only registers the numbers of parents trained on the model, but not their attendance. CONAFE is working on a proposal for the construction of a module that will allow them to retrieve information related to the development of the sessions remotely through their Monitoring and Information System, the Sistema Integral de Información e Infraestructura para el Fomento Educativo (SIIINAFE). Additionally, CONAFE has been reporting a lower than expected value for this indicator due to the accounting of both the number of fathers and mothers who attended sessions under their management and those under State management. Similarly to the previous indicator, this indicator will now only report ECD services managed by CONAFE and the end target will have the same objective as the original indicator: to maintain the number of parents educated. CONAFE’s commitment is to maintain a certain number of service points which have to serve a certain number of parents. Given that the service points will not increase, but be maintained, the number of parents educated also will be maintained. Updated Indicator Definition: Number of participants that are being trained on the ECD model in service points administered by CONAFE. Baseline: 274,168 (August 2014) End target: 274,168 (December 2018) c. Component 2: Mobile Pedagogical Support (Asesores Pedagógicos Itinerantes, APIs) i. REVISED. Percentage of primary education community schools in select CNCH municipalities supported by an API – The baseline and end target were revised and adjusted because the indicator was originally calculated based on the achievement of a potential API universe, not on the total amount of community schools in the 405 CNCH municipalities. Community schools that receive an API are low achieving schools, located in localities of low socioeconomic status and a high percentage of students in the lowest level of the National Plan for Assessments of Learning (PLANEA), but not all The World Bank Mexico Reducing Inequality of Educational Opportunity Project (P149858) potential Community schools to receive an API are located in the CNCH municipalities. Therefore, the values were adjusted downwards to represent only the percentage of community schools in CNCH municipalities supported by an API. Baseline: 34.26% (August 2014) End target: 42% (December 2018) ii. NO CHANGE. Percentage of APIs in select CNCH municipalities who attended at least 2 capacity building sessions in the last 11 months. iii. NO CHANGE. Percentage of parents who participate in activities organized by the API and LEC at the end of the school year in community schools in selected CNCH municipalities iv. NO CHANGE. Time spent by the APIs in one on one remedial sessions with underperforming children during the last visit to school type A d. Component 3: Technical Cooperation, Research, and Innovation i. MARKED FOR DELETION. Focus groups among parents, teachers, and community representatives in a sample of communities targeted by the Community Strengthening for Education Program (FORTALECE) – This indicator will be eliminated because strengthening community education through FORTALECE is no longer a priority. During Project design, improvement of the design of FORTALECE through a series of evaluations and analysis was included under Component 3 as a complement to the strengthening of community education through the other interventions of the Project. Once the budgetary restrictions that limited the hiring of firms arose, the Bank and the GoM agreed to omit the focus on FORTALECE and to prioritize the ECD and APIs interventions as they comprise the main focus of the Project. ii. NEW. Evaluation of the Child Development Evaluation Card (Cédula de Evaluación del Desarrollo Infantil, CEDI) – This indicator will be added to demonstrate CONAFE’s institutional capacity to escalate the use of the CEDI nationwide. Given CONAFE’s desire to apply the CEDI nationwide, the Bank suggested and funded a qualitative evaluation on a pilot implementation that would give information about procedural challenges to scale the use of the CEDI in all ECD service points. Indicator Definition: Report that includes an evaluation of CONAFE’s capacity to escalate the use of the CEDI nationwide Frequency: One time Data Source/Methodology: Evaluation of the CEDI piloting Responsibility for Data Collection: World Bank Baseline: No (December 2017) End target: Yes (December 2018) The World Bank Mexico Reducing Inequality of Educational Opportunity Project (P149858) III. SUMMARY OF CHANGES Changed Not Changed Results Framework ✔ Implementing Agency ✔ DDO Status ✔ Project's Development Objectives ✔ Components and Cost ✔ Loan Closing Date(s) ✔ Cancellations Proposed ✔ Reallocation between Disbursement Categories ✔ Disbursements Arrangements ✔ Disbursement Estimates ✔ Overall Risk Rating ✔ Safeguard Policies Triggered ✔ EA category ✔ Legal Covenants ✔ Institutional Arrangements ✔ Financial Management ✔ Procurement ✔ Implementation Schedule ✔ Other Change(s) ✔ Economic and Financial Analysis ✔ Technical Analysis ✔ Social Analysis ✔ Environmental Analysis ✔ IV. DETAILED CHANGE(S) The World Bank Mexico Reducing Inequality of Educational Opportunity Project (P149858) Results Framework COUNTRY: Mexico Mexico Reducing Inequality of Educational Opportunity Project Project Development Objectives(s) The objectives of the Project are: (a) to improve parental competencies in early childhood development in targeted rural communities; and (b) increase the transition rate from the primary to the secondary education level in CONAFE-administered schools in targeted municipalities. Project Development Objective Indicators by Objectives/ Outcomes RESULT_FRAME_T BL_ PD O Indicator Name DLI Baseline End Target 2015 2019 Improve parental competencies in early childhood development in targeted rural communities (Action: This Objective is New) Score of parenting practices among caregivers of children ages 0- 54.00 56.00 4, in selected states (Number) Action: This indicator has been Revised Increase transition rate from primary to secondary education level in CONAFE-administered schools (Action: This Objective is New) Transition rate from primary to secondary education for the graduates of CONAFE administered schools in selected CNCH 60.30 70.00 municipalities (Percentage) PDO Table SPACE The World Bank Mexico Reducing Inequality of Educational Opportunity Project (P149858) Intermediate Results Indicators by Components RESULT_FRAME_T BL_ IO Indicator Name DLI Baseline End Target 2015 2019 Early Childhood Development (Action: This Component is New) Level of knowledge about early childhood practices among ECD 66.50 70.00 promotores (Percentage) Action: This indicator has been Revised Level of knowledge about early childhood practices among CAEEI 77.00 80.00 and CAREI figures (Percentage) Action: This indicator has been Revised Percentage of promotores who attended at least 2 capacity 98.70 100.00 building sessions in the previous operational cycle (Percentage) Action: This indicator has been Revised Number of ECD service points that are established and complete the minimum number of sessions provided for by the model at 17,833.00 17,833.00 national level (Number) Action: This indicator has been Revised Number of fathers and mothers educated on the ECD model at 274,168.00 274,168.00 national level (Number) Action: This indicator has been Revised Mobile Pedagogical Support (APIs) (Action: This Component is New) Percentage of primary education community schools in select 34.26 42.00 CNCH municipalities supported by an API (Percentage) Action: This indicator has been Revised The World Bank Mexico Reducing Inequality of Educational Opportunity Project (P149858) RESULT_FRAME_T BL_ IO Indicator Name DLI Baseline End Target 2015 2019 Percentage of APIs in select CNCH municipalities who attended at least 2 capacity building sessions in the last 11 months 32.00 90.00 (Percentage) Percentage of parents who participate in activities organized by the API and LEC at the end of the school year in community 52.00 62.00 schoolsin selected CNCH municipalities (Percentage) Time spent by the APIs in one on one remedial sessions with underperforming children during the last visit to school type A 1hr 40min 3hrs 20min (Text) Technical Cooperation, Research, and Innovation (Action: This Component is New) Focus groups among parents, teachers and community representatives in a sample of communities targeted by 0.00 10.00 FORTALECE (Number) Action: This indicator has been Marked for Deletion Evaluation of the Child Development Evaluation Card (Cédula de No Yes Evaluación del Desarrollo Infantil, CEDI) (Yes/No) Action: This indicator has been Revised IO Table SPACE . The World Bank Mexico Reducing Inequality of Educational Opportunity Project (P149858) Results Framework and Monitoring Indicator Description Project Development Objective Indicators Responsibility for Data Indicator Name Description (indicator definition etc.) Frequency Data Source / Methodology Collection Score of parenting practices among Mean of scores of parenting practices among Baseline Application of the KIDI CONAFE caregivers of children ages 0-4, in caregivers of children ages 0-4 in selected December instrument in selected rural selected states states that attend sessions on a regular basis 2017 communities Follow-up December 2018 Transition rate from primary to Percentage of total students from CONAFE Annual Merge of the CONAFE records CONAFE secondary education for the primary schools graduated from 6th grade in on primary school enrollment graduates of CONAFE administered school year T who have enrolled in lower with SEP data on lower schools in selected CNCH secondary schools (CONAFE or state schools) secondary enrollment in the municipalities in school year T+1 in selected CNCH CNCH municipalities where municipalities – the CNCH municipalities the APIs operate where the APIs operate Intermediate Results Indicators Responsibility for Data Indicator Name Description (indicator definition etc.) Frequency Data Source / Methodology Collection Component 1: Early Childhood Development The World Bank Mexico Reducing Inequality of Educational Opportunity Project (P149858) Level of knowledge about early Percentage of correct answers to a survey Annual Survey of a nationally CONAFE childhood practices among ECD measuring knowledge about early childhood representative sample of promotores care and development, and parenting promotores practices, based on the adaptation of the Knowledge of Infant Development Inventory (KIDI) instrument to the CONAFE curriculum. The instrument would be applied as part of a survey that would be conducted within 6 months from Board Approval. Level of knowledge about early Percentage of correct answers on a survey Annual Survey given to all CAEEI and CONAFE childhood practices among CAEEI that measures the knowledge about early CAREI figures and CAREI figures childhood development and caregiving based on a version of the KIDI instrument adapted to the CONAFE curriculum. Percentage of promotores who Percentage of promotores that have Annual Survey of a nationally CONAFE attended at least 2 capacity participated in the CONAFE-administered representative sample of building sessions in the previous capacity-building activities to enhance the promotores operational cycles quality of the sessions provided. The question would be asked as part of a survey that will be conducted within 6 months from Board Approval. Number of ECD service points that Number of service points – groups of Annual Project Progress Reports CONAFE are established and complete the caregivers meeting on a regular basis, minimum number of sessions convened by a promotor, to participate in the provided for by the model at ECD sessions – administered by CONAFE. The national level number of sessions per year varies by model, depending on whether the target is parents, children, or expecting mothers. The World Bank Mexico Reducing Inequality of Educational Opportunity Project (P149858) Number of fathers and mothers Number of participants that are being trained Annual Project Progress Reports CONAFE educated on the ECD model at on the ECD model in service points national level administered by CONAFE Component 2: Mobile Pedagogical Support (APIs) Percentage of primary education Total number of schools (A+B) that are Annual Project Progress Reports CONAFE community schools in select CNCH receiving support from APIs in the select municipalities supported by an API CNCH municipalities. Percentage of APIs in select CNCH Percentage of APIs deployed in select CNCH Annual Baseline based on survey in 36 CONAFE municipalities who attended at municipalities that are participating in communities benefitted by least 2 capacity building sessions in CONAFE-administered capacity building the APIs surveyed in March the last 11 months sessions aimed at improving the effectiveness 2012. Starting from Year 1, a of API performance. survey administered to the APIs will include a specific question. Percentage of parents who Percentage of parents of primary education Annual Project Progress Reports CONAFE participate in activities organized students served by APIs in select CNCH by API and LEC at the end of the municipalities that attend school-community school year in community schools activities at the end of the school year. in selected CNCH municipalities Time spent by the APIs in one on Average time, estimated in hours and Annual Baseline based on survey in 36 CONAFE one remedial sessions during the minutes, that each API invest in one-on-one communities benefitted by last visit to school type A tutoring sessions for worst performing the APIs surveyed in March students. 2012. Starting from Year 1, a survey administered to the APIs will include a specific question. The World Bank Mexico Reducing Inequality of Educational Opportunity Project (P149858) Component 3: Technical Cooperation, Research, and Innovation Evaluation of the Child Report that includes an evaluation of Once Evaluation of the CEDI piloting World Bank Development Evaluation Card CONAFE’s capacity to escalate the use of the (Cédula de Evaluación del CEDI nationwide Desarrollo Infantil, CEDI)