Report No. 9092 Report on the World Bank Research Program-Part I December 1990 Office of the Senior Vice President, Policy, Research, and External Affairs FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Document of the World Bank This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. ANNUAL REPORT ON THE WORLD BANK RESEARCH PROGRAM FISCAL 1990 Goals for World Bank Research When the research program was formalized in 1971, senior management gave it several basic goals, which remain intact to this day: * To support all aspects of the Bank's operations, including the assessment of development progress in member countries. * To broaden understanding of the development process. * To improve the Bank's capacity to provide advice to member countries. * To assist in developing indigenous research capacity in mem- ber countries. While very broad, these goals underscore the basic philosophy of Bank research and are the guiding principles for research projects. THE WORLD BANK Washington, D.C. 20433 U.S.A. BARBER B. CONABLE President December 12, 1990 MEMORANDUM TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS Subject: Bank Group Research Program Each year management reports to the Executive Directors on the World Bank's research program. This year's report has three objectives. The first is to show how Bank research affects and is affected by the Bank's operational activities, a question frequently asked by the Board. The second is to provide a comprehensive overview of Bank research. The third is to give a sense of the special issues and concerns that are guiding individual departments and regions as they prepare their research strategies for the 1990s. The report begins with a series of case studies to illustrate that Bank- sponsored development research is, indeed, different from most research done outside the Bank. While the subject and mechanisms of the five cases differ, each points to the same general conclusion: the unique interaction between researchers and operations staff makes Bank research high in technical quality and sufficiently "down to earth" to be relevant for policy. The report's coverage of ongoing research begins in Part II with the three areas singled out for special emphasis by research managers in last year's annual research report: the environment, private sector development, and socialist economies. Research programs are now well established in each of these areas, and important results are beginning to emerge. The review of findings from research completed in fiscal 1990 for the remaining program objective areas underscores both the breadth of the Bank's research program and the emphasis on priority issues. As with other activities in the Bank, the scope and course of research is influenced mainly by the program objectives established by senior management. Each department and region nevertheless faces special problems and concerns that should--and are--influencing research strategies for the 1990s. These are presented in the final part of the report. The Bank's research program must achieve balance between the need to serve the institution's priority areas and the need to maintain continuing expertise in a wide range of sectoral, policy and regional issues. It must also achieve balance between the need to tackle fundamental development problems that do not yield to short-term efforts and the need to provide findings that have direct and immediate consequences for Operations. I look forward to receiving your views on whether the program described in this report is achieving this balance. Table of contents Executive summary v Part I. Research in an operational setting 1 Research driven by Bank operations 2 Research driven by institutional mandate 4 Traditional interaction between research and operations: tax policy research 5 Traditional interaction between research and operations: trade policy research 7 Technical research 9 Part II. Highlights of the research program in fiscal 1990 12 Research priorities 12 Serving the Bank's other program objectives 18 Dissemination and outreach 24 Evaluation of completed research 27 Part M. The Bank's research strategy for the early 1990s 29 PRE priorities 29 Regional priorities 34 Other research 36 Endnotes 37 Appendices 39 1 Research at the World Bank 39 2 Research-related Bank committees 41 3 Operational Directive 16.00 43 4 Tables 46 5 Visiting Research Fellow Program 56 6 Bank research output, fiscal 1990 57 iii Executive summary Eachyear this report takes one aspect of the Bank's gram objectives. We conclude by spelling out the research program and looks at it in depth. In past institution'sresearchstrategiesfor the early 1990s. years the emphasis has been on such issues as (Appendix 1 defines the term "research" as it is serving Bank priorities, building research capac- used in this report and discusses how research is ity, and improving the dissemination of research managed and funded in the World Bank.) output. This year's report also reviews progress for each of these (and other) aspects of the pro- Research in an operational setting gram, but its particular emphasis is on the links between research and the Bank's operational ac- The five case studies set out in the body of this tivities. report cover the spectrum of Bank research - Research at the Bank is different from research fromresearchthatisdirectlyoperationallydriven, at universities and free-standing research insti- to research driven by institutional mandate, to tutes. The Bank's lending operations serve as a technical and engineering research. In each case constant reminder to research staff that the real one message comes through clearly: no matter world is much more complex than the world of what the starting point, the final product of Bank theory. Those operations and the Bank's con- research is almost always heavily influenced by tinuing interaction with its member countries also the involvement of researchers with Operations underscore the fact that moving from theory to and the involvement of Operations staff with re- practice requires a thorough understanding of searchers. political, cultural, and institutional constraints. The first case study on land titling shows that Although the Bank's lending operations influence research can be responsive to the direct demands all Bank research, thre is no fixed relationship of operations, and that researchers, Operations between iesearch and Operations, no single "life staff and local counterparts are each essential cycle" forBankresearch. Thepatternsof interaction inputs into successful research. This theme is and flows of information vary from project to rpeated in the second case study of the Living project and subject to subject. Standards Measurement Study (LSMS), an initia- To give Executive Directors a sense of the many tive driven by presidential mandate. The LSMS avenues for interaction between research and also underscores the fact that, when the Bank sets Operation-, we begin this year's report by pre- out to explore new research areas, it must be senting five cases of Bank research. We then prepared for a considerable period of investment. report on the research program in fiscal 1990 - on The third and fourth cases show how research and the administrative details of that program, on the operations int,-ract in two areas of long-standing efforts in three areas of special priority in research, interest to tht &2.. k - tax policy and trade. The and on progress in supporting the Bank's pro- fifth case sets out the story of one of the Bank's V major technical research undertakings, the High- package to underwrite the project's startup costs. way Maintenance Study. This last case carries Operational contacts in Abidjan also helped re- many of the same messages of the first four - the searchers identify an administrative h >me for the need for an early and sometimes lengthy phase of project and smoothed the way for a new adminis- applied research, the importance of operational trative structure to manage the project. The phi- leedback,and the valueof havingresearch located losophy and much of the specific methodology in the Bank rather than contracted out. But it also behind the C6te d'Ivoire Living Standards Survey provides unique lessons to guide future technical are now being used in nearly a dozen member research. countries. RESEARCH DRIVEN BY OPERATIONs. The history of a TRADITIONAL INTERACMONS BElWEEN RESEARCH AND recent body of work by Bank staff on the rela- oPERA'moNs. The Bank's core research programs tionship between land titling and farmer pro- also provide insight into the ways in which Op- ductivity in Thailand shows that operational con- erationsand research staff interact. Two examples cerns are often the direct impetus to a research - are given, one based on the Bank's extensive re- and operational - breakthrough. It shows how search on issuesof taxation, and the other on trade researchers' support of lending operations can research. lead to work that has far-reaching effects not only Research on fiscal issues in general - and tax on Bank Operations but also on the way the eco- issuesinparticular-illustrates welltheinterplay nomics profession thinks about a particular issue. between Operations and research in a mainstay In the Thai land titling study, operational staff area of research. As the tax case shows, new identified an important gap in kaowledge and research often starts with the development of a brought it to the attention of Bank researchers. general theory or set of models that may be too Thai researchers, in addition to their intellectual removed from reality to be useful in Operations. input provided Bank researchers with the insti- Bank researchers are then drawn into mission tutional knowledge they lacked and arranged for activities, and these experiences lead to a second effective dissemination of the policy implications generation of models that can be applied to real in Thailand. Bank researchers provided "on-the- world settings. Along the way new issues arise, job" training to the Thai researchers in new new research is launched, and the cycle begins methods of analysis and pushed the economics again. profession to rethink their stand on the value of For the tax research a major cycle of ideas and formal land titling. projects began with work on a multisectoral tax model for India. This initial work was heavily RESEARCH DRIVEN BY INSTIuTIONAL MANDATE. Presi- influenced by operational missions on tax issues dential statements of institutional priorities are inMalawi,Ghana,Nigeria,Zaire,and Bangladesh. always important in shaping Bank research, and In every case the application of general tax policy occasionally the mandate from on high is more principles to specific country settings engendered specific. Suchis the case with the LivingStandards a new set of research activities the findings of Measurement Study (LSMS), a major Bank effort which strengthened our policy dialogue in the to further our understanding of poverty through next country study. This ability to perform op- improved methods for collecting and analyzing erational work in a variety of country settings led information on household standards of living. Bank tax researchers to the realization that taxes The LSMS illustrates the significant investments and public sector pricing had to be considered in required for entry into new areas, the critical concert, not as a set of isolated policies, a principle importance of field and operational constraints in that guided much of the Bank's tax work during successful research, and the central role of staff the 1980s. interaction in linking research and operational The Bank has also been a serious player in trade activities. Under the LSMS, Bank researchers research for several decades. The trade case un- provided intensive technical assistance to their derscores the value of maintaining a core of high- counterparts in C8te d'Ivoire during the critical quality research and researchers in major policy planning phase of the project. Operational staff areasevenwhenthoseareasarenotattheforefront provided invaluable oversight as part of their of the current policy debate. regular mission activities to Abidjan and worked By the end of the 1980s the Bank's trade policy with research staff to put together a funding work had reacheda natural point of consolidation. The World Development Report 1987 brought to- * Research on the environment und forestry gether the accumulated knowledge of the past increased overall by 30 percent with a fourfold two decades and Bank st.ff produced a policy increase in funding from the Research Support paper in 1989 that set out the practical lessons Budget (RSB expenditures are a leading indicator from both research and experience. Many of the of future research directions). statements in that paper look comfortably obvi- * Private sector research increased by8l percent ous and predictable from today's vantage point, from fiscal 1989 to . iscal 1990, and RSB expendi- but they would have looked radical and untested tures more than doubled. as little as a decade ago. * Although comparable figures do not exist for fiscal 1989 the presence of the Socialist Economies TECHNICAL RESEARCH. Although the largest part of Reform Unit attests to the very significant increase the Bank's research portfolio concerns questions in research on transforming socialist economies. of economic policy design and uses socioeconomic Changing patterns of research emphasis are methods, the Bank also supports research on reflected in changing patterns of resource alloca- technical issues. The Bank's research for the tion in other areas as well: Highway Design and Maintenance (HDM) Stan- * During fiscal 1990,18 percent of the Research dards Model brings out the challenges of under- Support Budget was devoted to work on adjust- taking technical research "in-house" and the ad- ment, trade, and debt, down substantially from 28 vantages and disadvantages of having such re- percent in 1989, although the percentage of PRE search done in collaboration with outsiders. staff time devoted to this research rose. This Technical research isalmostalwaysanexpensive pattern of declining RSB funding and increasing proposition and is likely to take a sustained staff time is typical of research that is entering a commitment to bring to fruition. These charac- more mature phase and consistent with the role of teristics make it difficult for the Bank to go it alone the RSB as one of the principal avenues through - and hence the tendency for collaborative and which new research directions are pursued. consortium arrangements involving other donors * Human resource development accounted for and otherresearchers. Collaborativearrangements 11 percent of the Research Support Budget, up have many advantages, amongthemcost-sharing, from 8.6 percent in 1989, with RSB research on providing a mechanism for an operational orga- women in development increasing nearly four- nization (the Bank) to feed its concerns into applied fold. research and placing the Bank at the cutting edge * In apparent contrast, roughly 13 percent of of technical research. But those arrangements do the Research Support Budget and 17 percent of bring serious managerial challenges with them. PRE staff cost for research went to research on TheBank'sexperiencewith the HDM projectshows poverty reduction and food security, down that institutional and managerial commitment is somewhat from 17 percent and 25 percent in 1989. even more important for technical research than it Much of the change is attributable to the World is for social science research. Development Report 1990, which absorbed a large fraction of PRE's work on poverty in fiscal 1990. Highlights from research in fiscal 1990 WDR-related research is not included in the sta- tistics on research. Lastyear's annual report on research demonstrated that substantial research programs underpin al- REsECH SPENDING AND STAFF TIME BOTH UP IN FISCAL most all of the Bank's operational emphasis areas. 1990. Administered by the Research Committee, This year's report shows that the broad base of the RSB disbursed a record $6.4 million in fiscal research in support of program areas continued to 1990, compared with $3.6 million in fiscal 1989 solidify in fiscal 1990 and that progress was sub- and $4.0 million in fiscal 1988 (these are actual stantial in areas seen as less-than-adequately disbursements in each of the years, not authori- served by the fiscal 1989 program. zations). This dramatic increase resulted from two factors: the steady rise in RSB funding of new CHANING PATTERNSOF RESEARcHEmPRAsis. The areas projects since the 1987 reorganization, and the singled out last year for special research priority completion of a "catching-up" process to put all - the environment, private sector development, RSB-funded research projects on firm timetables. and socialist economies - registered clear in- RSB disbursements will return to long-run sus- creases in research activities. tainable levels of around $5 million in fiscal 1991. vii The staff time reported by departments on re- the findingsof work in progre-s, to other research- search or research-related activities (research ers and to staff in the Operations complex. The preparation, for example) increased from 122 staff Policy Research Bulletin, successor to Research News, years in fiscal 1989 to 131 staff years in fiscal 1990. was launched in January 1990 to provide the policy Thegrowth in staff years came principaly froman research and development community with up- increaseintheinputsofSectorPolicyandResearch to-date information on the Bank's research pro- staff, reflecting that vicc presidency's growing gram. It is distributed to 21,000 researchers, involvement in priority research areas, especially policymakers, and business people, a circulation the environment and human resources. three times that of the old Research News. Research activities during fiscal l990represented The Annual World Bank Conference on Devel- 17.5 percentof the total analytical work undertaken opment Economics for 1990 was held at the end of by the Bank in support of its lending operations, April. The keynote address was by Vaclav Klaus, up from about 14 percent in fiscal 1989. (Economic finance minister of Czechoslovakia, who spoke and sector work accounted for 54 percent, and about theunfoldingtransitiontomarketeconomies policy analysis for 28 percent.) As a share of the in Eastern Europe. The four topics discussed at Bank's fiscal administrative budget in fiscal 1990, the 1990 Conference dealt with appropriate policy research activities acco,inted for roughly 4.2 per- responsesfor moving from stabilization togrowth, cent, compared with 3.5 percent in each of the sustainable development and the environment, preceding three fiscal years. the role of population growth in development, and a reexamination of project evaluation. The MORE RESEARCH PROPOSALS AND TIGHTER FUNDING AU- Conference ended with a roundtable discussion THORIZATIONs. Requests for RSB funding are a on "Development Strategies: The Roles of the leading indicator of the health of the research State and the Private Sector," in anticipation of the program and the degree to which departments review of development economics that will be the seek additional resources to augment their own subject of the World Development Report 1991. allocations to research. During fiscal 1990, the Through the Visiting Research Fellow Program, centrally funded research portfolio contained 160 funded by the Research Support Budget, the Bank active projects, up from 134 in fiscal 1989. Of these hosted 13 research fellows during fiscal 1990. These 160 projects, 79 were new starts, including 29 fellows focused ona variety )f areas, including the research preparation activities. Sixty-five projects political economy of structural adjustment, the were closed during the fiscal year, leaving an importance of nontariff barriers in trade agree- active Portfolio of 95 projects at the end of fiscal ments,povertyalleviationandincomedistribution 1990. issues in the context of structural adjustment, and urban land and management problems in Sub- DISSEMINATION AND OUTREACH. The World Bank Saharan Africa. Economic Review and the World Bank Research Ob- server are now well established, with 5,700 sub- Research strategy for the 1990s scribers to the Observer and 13,000 to the Review. Both journals now have extended pipelines of The report concludes with a look at the future of articles approvedby the journals'editorial boards, Bank research. A basic institutional goal is to pipelines that make it easier to strengthen the mix reduce the poverty of poor nations and the pov- of articles in each issue. Bank researchers were erty of people within those nations. To do this, we also prolific publishers during the fiscal year must improve nutrition, reduce sickness, increase through otheroutlets, including44 articles in other life expectancy, and increase the access to educa- leading journals, 15 books, 51 technical and dis- tion. We must also boost the rate of economic cussion papers, and more than 300 working pa- growth and ensure that developmental policies pers and discussion papers. and practices are sustaiiable in the long term - The Policy and Research Series moved into its not just economically sustainable, but socially, second year with nine issues on such topics as politically, and environmentally sustainable. To competitionpolicies,industrialrestructuring,and meet this goal we will need to know more about agricultural diversification. The PRE Working development and the effects of policies aimed at Paper Series, now in its third year and heading achieving it onabroad front. Nowhere isthe need toward number 600 - with 230 papers published more critical than in the four areas of program during fiscal 1990 - continues to release quickly emphasis (other than poverty reduction) now viii guiding the Bank's planning and operations: the vices have been inadequate -- and that these environment, private sectordevelopment, human inadequacies seriously constrain productivity resources, and debt and adjustment. The depart- growth, not only in the low-income countries of mental research programs for PRE and for the four Africa but in Latin America and the fast-growing regions reflect each unit's interpretation of these countries in east Asia. Deteriorating services, overarching goals and objectives. inefficient public enterprises and institutions, and overregulated markets for water, housing, trans- AGRIcULTURE AND RURAL DEVEL.OPMFNr. The Bank's port and waste disposal dictate three priority research strategy for agriculture and rural devel- areas for INU'sanalytical work. The first is on the opment takes as its starting point the recognition fiscal, financial, and real sector links between in- that many of the most pressing issues facing poli- frastructure and the macroeconomy. The second cynakers and project designers are outside of is on the political. institutional, regulatory, and economics and in the realm of technology. One financial constraints to productivity. The third is major challenge therefore is to understand, use, on what individual policy changes would mean and influence technological change. AGR will for the productivity of firms and households, for continue to conduct research on economic issues, the welfare of the poor, and for the environment. where we know the problems and how to bring findings to the policy table. But the department POPULATION ANDi HUMAN RFSOURcEs. The Bank's re- will also do more in technology assessments - to search strategy for population and human re- draw lessons about the process of technological sources in the 1990s also has th2e main thrut's. change, to bolster the technical packages in in- The first concerns poverty assessment and policy vestment projects, and to strengthen the policy impact on household consumption and human dialogue with national authorities. resource investments. The secoad i on human resources and economic prodictivity, with special INDUSTRY AND ENERGY. The research strategy for attention to women's economic productivity and industry and energy in the first part of the 1990s is to the formation and use of hunan capital. The moving beyond technical and engineering issues third is on the management of human resource to largerquestionsofgovernance. Issuesof revising development-especiallyeconomic management, the social contract between governments, enter- but also technical and institutional management. prises, and consumers are now directing IEN's These emphases relate to the second of the two- emerging research. Part of this new work involves pronged attackon poverty articulated in the World reviewing the situation today - to show where Development Report 1990: the development of and how thingsare not working. And part involves human resources to enable people to take advan- providing guidelines for putting in place mecha- tage of expanded economic opportunities to use nisms for making difficult decisions and for en- theirlabor productively that structural reform can suring public accountability. At the core of the bring. IEN approach is the notion that a competitive environment to promote efficiency can be estab- ENVIRoNErT. The overriding priority of ENV's lished only by developing capital markets that work is to encourage the integration of environ- support private ownership of what now are public mental strategy into the mainstream of the Bank's utilities. Specific research issues that IEN will lending activities - and to strengthen research on addressin theearly 1990s deal with the importance the underlying causes of environmental degra- of foreign private investment in the transfer of dation and on the feasibility of alternative policy technology, the development of domestic capital interventions. With operational work now on markets to accommodate the needs of firms for track, ENV staff are refining their thinking and working capital and foreign exchange, and the deepening their research on public policy issues. transport and communications infrastructure that For example, ENV will begin to do more work on has to be in place to move goods to markets and the cost-benefit analysis that incorporates global speed transactions. externalities. Research is also being developed on the links among poverty, population, and the INFRAsRUCTURE ANDURBAN DEvELoPMENT. The Bank's environment. research strategy for infrastructure emanates from the assessmcnt that government responses to the COUNTRY ECONOMICS. Perhaps the major develop- increasing demand for urban infrastructure ser- nent question for the 1990s is how to improve the ix prospeck for siuFtainablelong-run growth in stag- evaluate the policy responses to those shocks. nating aind declining economics. New research is Finally, to understand better the contribution of under tway - - on the determinants of long-run external finance to growth, IEC will analyze why growth and on institutional development in the some countries are able to support much higher public aid private sectors - to improve private relativelevelsof indebtednessthanothersand the sa vings mobilization and support efficient invest- causes of private capital outflows and reflows. mci. As par of its focus on long-run growth, :EC is also addressing ways of making the con- REGIONAL PRIORii.E Research in the Operations Cept o( enviionmieally sustainable growth an complex both tirrors and complements the re- hie'giat part of the Bank's lending operations. To search in the Policy, Research, and External Affairs support its efforts to understand and promote complex. institutional development, CEC is building up For the Africa region, the long-term perspective t oseahi ,I oi irefornsin such areas as deregulation, study - Sub-Saharan Africa: From Crisis to Sustain- entiepreneurial development, private provision able Growth - defines the research agenda for the of ptiblit sci victs,and thestrengtheningof private foreseeable future. Work is being intensified on financial intrmediaries to support private sector the determinants of fertility and on reversing the dievelopment. And becausenational policieshave vicious circle of rapid population growth, slow siguific,nt enkiiroinmental impact through their agricultural growth, and deteriorating natural : .t" . and d;sincenatives,CEC resources. Research is being launched on the 1 a userch an the onvironmental government's role in promoting the informal impact of trade and fiscal policy reforms. sector's development, on the experiencewith trade Consistent with the agenda set out in World reform, on what regional integration means for Development Report 1990,CECisinitiatingresearch trade strategies, on the mobility of labor under on the impact of tax policy and public spending on adjustme..t, and on policies for export develop- the poor, particularly through targeted spending ment. These efforts will help inform AFR's pro- programs. With labor markets and employment gram of regional studiesona widerangeof sectors as major determinants of the returns to labor - and themes - population, financial sector re- the main asset of the poor - CEC will resume form, regional integration, efficient management resea tch on labor market and employment ques- of external finance, and alternatives for dealing tions, research largely neglected since the reor- with debt difficulties. ganization in 1987. To keep pace with and learn Poverty remains the main topic of research for from the far-reaching changes in Eastern Europe, the Asia regionbut new research is movingbeyond CEC is building up research on price reform, problems of measuring poverty to identifying the enterprise reform, and social safety nets. practical policy levers for improving the access of the poor to public services, especially education INIERNATIONAL ECONOMICs. Research on interna- andhealth. Exploratory work is underway to find tional economics tekes a global perspective - on out what governments can do to reduce school the long-term prospects for developing countries, dropout rates and improve learning outcomes, on the management of debt, and on the likely and on the determinants of demand for health developments i- major commodity markets. A services - and the links among epidenological main area for :search concerns the global deter- patterns, the financing of health services, and the minants of long-run productivity and economic equity of access to these services. The region will growth- to find outmore about how theexternal also conduct a major study of the links between envii onment affects countries' growth prospects poverty and population, analyzing how govern- - as a complement to CEC's focus on internal ments can best intervene. And as part of the corsiderations. A second priority is the devel- Bankwide forestry initiative, the region will sup- opment of the nextgeneration of global models for port a major effort to consolidate thinking on analysis of the interactions and links among de- regional environmental issues. veloped and developing countries. Particularly The immediate concern in the Europe, Middle important are refinements that will incorporate East, and North Africa region is the transforma- Eas! -rn Europe's joining the world market tion of centrally planned economies and their econom-. A third priority area is to assess the changing links with the Soviet Union. The core effects of global commodity shocks, like the 1990 research issues concern the transformation of en- oil shock, on individual economies - and to terprises-effortsto make public firms private, to x restructure policies and institutions, and above all nets and the relative .ner!ts of employment pro- to introduce competition. Other important ques- grams versus targeted transfer programs to pro- tions on the EMENA research agenda include vide social services. Studies of these questions evolving trading relationships and the extent to aim at improving the design of future projects by which existing external debt will affect potential drawing lessons from experience. Forresearchon investors' attitudes toward foreign direct invest- the environment, the region will be evaluating ment and other capital flows in the region. An- policies that reduce polluiion through changes in other critical area of continuing inquiry is the ielative prices and policies that regulate pollution environment, an issue that deeply affects welfare thrc ,h administrative controls. throughout the region. These departmental and regional research plans Latin America's massive structural reforms and add up toa challenging agenda drivenby problems reassessments of the public sector's role are in- that are technically complex and often politically fluencing the areas of research in the region. sensitive. Manyoftheunderlyingissuescutacross Comparative analysis of the size of governments, division, departmental, and vice presidential reform of civil services, and fiscal decentralization boundaries, underscoring the need for effective will be important areas of new work. The region management and coordination. To improve co- is also drawing lessons from private sector re- ordination within its own complex and to further sponses to reform programs during the last few coordination throughout the Bank, PRE is devel- years, particularly trade reforms. In addition, the oping a new system that will act as a clearing experience with social investment funds associ- house and institutional focal point for cross-cut- ated wit. adjustment operations has raised ting issues. questions about the appropriate design of safety Xi Part I Research in an operational setting At almost every Board discussion of the Annual gional chief economists also do much to identify Report on the World Bank Research Program, the pressing operational issues, coordinate research, Executive Directors question how Bank-sponsored and disseminate its results, asdo the several sector research fits into what is essentially an operational and research retreats held each year. But these institution. How dc!s research influence Bank official channels are only part of the story. Much operations? How do operational staff interact critical interaction occurs at the initiative of indi- with research staff in producing Bank research? vidualstaff members-interaction thatisdifficult What role does the Operations complex play in to describe in general terms but essential to under- setting research priorities? How is research in the standing Bank research. Bank different from research in universities? To Wechooseheretogivea senseof the importance answertheseperennialquestionsthisyear'sreport of these interactions between research and op- focuses on the role of research in the Bank, par- erational staff by presenting five cases of Bank ticularly on how researchers and operational staff research. The cases were selected not because interact to produce the Bank's unique research they are examples of successful research but be- product. cause each illustrates an important and frequently Research in the Bank is different from research encountered form of interaction between Opera- inuniversitiesandfree-standingresearchinstitutes tions and research. Each case is based on a com- in at least two ways. First, Bank operations serve pleted research episode to bring out both the as a constant reminder of the complexity of real immediate and much longer term effects that world problems and constraints, raising issues for Operations can have on the nature and direction research underscoring the need for practical so- of Bank research. lutions. Second, those operations provide a unique While all five cases confirm the value of having mechanism for putting the new ideas that ema- Bank research produced in close association with nate from our research into practice. Well-known Operations staff, each of them also delivers its formal channels in the Bank's administrative own special lessons. The first two cases - one on structure have been established to ensure good landtitlingandoneonmeasuringlivingstandards communication and collaboration between Bank - illustrate how the impetus for research can research and Operations. The participation of the come from many sources. The third and fourth Policy, Research, and External Affairs (PRE) com- cases - on tax policy research and trade policy plex on the Operations Committee, the participa- research - look at what might be called conven- tion of the Operations complex on the PRE Com- tional research activities. These are areas of long- mittee, and the participationof bothgroupson the standing interest in the Bank, areas in which the Research and Publications Policy Council and the institution has invested heavily and is likely to Research Committee are four examples. The re- wantacontinuingpresence. They illustrate,among other things, the need to maintain and continu- of the project's expected benefits was not. Op- ously update our stock of knowledge in the Bank's erational staff turned to what now is the Agricul- core policy areas. The fifth case - on road ture and Rural Development Department for help maintenance-concernsoneoftheBank'ssmaller in searching the available literature for quantita- number of research projects on technical rather tive estimates of the effects of land titling on farm than economic issues. It shows the commitment productivity. An initial review of past research that technical research requires and the special turned up two interesting and disturbing facts. challenges of such research for the Bank. First, the importance of secure ownership to farm Before we turn to the case studies, three points productivity was well discussed in qualitative of information maybe useful inguiding thereader. terms, but quantitative information on the effects First, for those not familiar with the World Bank's of differentownership arrangements was virtually research program, Appendix 1 discusses the nonexistent. Second, the land titling literature left meaning of research as it is used in this report and the impression that titling was simply a bureau- gives a short introduction to the structure for cratic procedure with little or no direct economic funding and managing Bank research. Second, function or impact. throughout this and subsequent parts of the re- Thelackof convincing quantitativeevidence on port we provide references to end notes for those the effects of land titling on productivity led Bank wanting more detail on a particular pro,ect or researchers to launch a study on the subject. Be- subject. And finally, this report's thematic focus fore work began in earnest, Bank researchers and on the relationship between research and opera- operational staff established working contacts at tions should not be seen in any way as reducing two levels in Thailand - contacts that were to the importance of other Bank research clients or prove essential to the study's eventual success. objectives. Such perennial issues as building re- Operational staff arranged discussions with Thai search capacity and disseminating policy findings officials to ensure government support of a study tothedevelopmentresearchcommunity,reviewed on land titling and to establish conduits for in Part II of this report, remain important objec- transforming research findings into policy. Bank tives of the program. researchers also established contact with a group of Thai economists who were prepared to col- Research driven by Bank operations laborateindesigningandconductingtheproposed study. Funded through a grant from the Bank's The history of a recent body of work by Bank staff Research Support Budget, the study began in on the relationship between land titling and farmer 1984.2 productivity shows that operational concerns are Fairly early in the project, the Bank team uncov- often the direct impetus to a breakthrough in ered a critical finding. Farmers who did not hold research. It also shows how researchers' support legal title invested less than farmers who held of lending operations can lead to work that has clear title, but the difference did not appear to far-reaching effects not only on Bank Operations stem from a fear of eviction. Careful analysis that but on the way the economics profession thinks drew heavily on theThai researchers' institutional about a particular issue. The land titling study is knowledge showed that even for squatters on aclassicillustrationofhowresearchers,operational government-designated forest reserve lands, de staff, and local counterparts interact to produce facto ownership security was very high. It ap- better policy analysis than any one of these groups peared therefore that further strengthening the would have been able to produce alone. sense of ownership among Thai squatter farmers In 1983 a group of operational economists was - the original motive for the lending operation conductingacost-benefitanalysisofaprospective - was not likely to have much effect on produc- Bank-funded program toenhanceland ownership tivity. But why, then, was there a difference in security among Thai farmers through land ti- investment levels between squatters and those tling.' The rationale for the project came from with legal titles? The overlooked answer became traditional economic theory, which argues that obviousoncetheresearchresultswereconsidered: strengthening legal ownership of far-. -s' land farmers with legal titles to their land had ready (and reducing the fear of eviction) w, lead to access to relatively cheap credit through official increased farm productivity through increased financial channels, as their land could serve as investment by farmers. Although the theory was collateral. Farmers who did not hold legal title did straightforward,arrivingatquantitativeestimates not have access to such credit. The research demonstrated clearly that estab- searchers, and operational staff - exhibited ac.- lishing the exact mechanism through which land mirable openness to new ideasand each displayed "ownership" increased productivity was critical an essential willingness to listen to the others. tothedesignofland titlingschemes. Thisfactwas Operational staff identified an important gap in to play a central role in the policy discussions on knowledge and brought it to the attention of Bank another potential land registration loan that 'he researchers. The Thai researchers provided Bank Bank and the Thai government were considering researchers with the institutional knowledge they during 1985-86.1 While the Thai government was lacked and arranged for effective dissemination of eager to increase the productivity of squatter the policy implications in Thailand. The Bank farmers, forestry officials objected to granting researchers provided "on-the-job" training to the unrestricted ownership to squatters who were Thairesearchersinnewmethodsof analysis. This farming land in forest reserves. Thai officials collaboration kept the Thai government and the argued - and the Bank had previously accepted Bank from extending a user certificate program this position in its structural adjustment loan op- that would not have yielded the desired produc- erations, at least as an interim step in long-term tivity benefits. The results also provided quanti- reform-that "user certificates" wouldbeenough tative information and a method of cost-benefit to increase squatters' tenurial security, providing analysis to strengthen the economic justification thesameproductivity-enhancingoutcomesasfull for a follow-on titling project (recently approved titled ownership without theneed to providelegal by the Bank).' titles. Bank researchers, operational staff, and The Thai story ends here, but the impact of this Thai researchers argued to the contrary: non- pieceof Bankresearch does not. Themain research transferable user certificates would do little to publication from the study, Land Policies and Farm enhance farm productivity, because official credit Productivity in Thailand, -won the Quality of Re- channels would not accept them as collateral. search Discovery Award of the American Agri- At this point in the story, the willingness of the cultural Economics Association in 1989 The wide three groups to work together became critical (see dissemination of results and the growing concern box 1). Since the original research project had not over land ownership issues in the development studied user certificates, conclusions about their community led to a grant to the Bank by the U.S. effectiveness in raising productivity were only Agency for International Development fora study indirect. The Thai government wanted stronger applying the method and approach toSub-Saharan proof. The original research design was modified Africa. Studies drawing on the Thai methodology and new results were obtained that directly con- were recently completed in Rwanda, Kenya, firmed the Bank researchers' predictions: grant- Ghana, and Burkina Faso. And the Agriculture ing user certificates did little to enhance farm and Rural Development Department is planninga productivity. new policy paper on issues of land ownership, for All three parties - Bank researchers, Thai re- release in fiscal 1994. 6 Box 1 The value of local collaboration The best Bank policy research comes from a blending of connected with the political system, and these connections three inputs: operational staff with an eye for problems proved invaluable in ensuring that study findings reached specific to countries and sectors, Bank researchers who can a wide range of senior government officials. The Thai put these problems in a broader context, and local research- researchers were also the focal point of a lively policy debate ers who can bring critical institutional knowledge to the in the Thai press over the issue of land titling. project. The Thailand land titling project shows how this The best research projects leave behind a stronger foun- mix of ingredients can produce a first-rate policy research dation for future work both in Bank research and in local outcome and how the role of local researchers is critical. research capacity. The Thai collaborators gained method- TheThairesearchersat Kasetsart University whocollabo- ological and conceptual knowledge thathas made it possible rated on the project had little experience analyzing land for them subsequently to participate in a major govern ment- titling issues, but they knew rural Thailand. They were sponsored land policy study and in a socioeconomic impact instrumentalindeddingwhatquestionstoaskThaifarmers study for the land titling project - and for the Thai gov- and how to ask these questions to elicit the information ernment to continue its analysis of land titling issues. needed for the proposed analysis. They also were well 3 Research driven by institutional mandate between the economists leading the project (who specified the types of data needed to monitor The impetus for new directions in Bank research welfare) and the survey design experts (who had comes from many sources in the Bank. Presiden- to translate these data needs into admin;strable tial statements of institutional priorities are al- surveys). Thestickingpointwaswhetherconven- ways important in shaping Bank research, and tional survey techniques were adequate for col- occasionally the mandate is more specific. Such is lecting the data that the economists, as prospec- the case with the Living Standards Measurement tive users, wanted. Study, a major Bank effort to improve methods Ataboutthesametime,allBankresearchprojects for collecting and analyzing information on were reviewed as part of a reorganization of Bank household living standards. The history of this research. A fresh look at the LSMSproject showed study illustrates one of the many avenues through that a point of diminishing returns had been which the push for new directions in Bank re- reached for additional desk study. Growing con- search can come, as well as the significant invest- cern about the feasibility of administering the ments often needed for entry into new areas the LSMS questionnaire could be addressed only by critical importance of field and operational con- confronting theoretical design with the rigors of a straints in successful research, and the value of the field test. Meanwhile, independent of the LSMS interaction of Bank staff in linking research and project, a researcher in the Bank's Development operational activities. Research Department had teamed up with a coun- In 1973, then-President McNamara, in his well- try economist in the Africa Region to study the known Nairobi speech, called on the Bank to determinants of welfare levels in C8te d'Ivoire. increase the effectiveness of its lending activities These two strands of work - the LSMS and the as a means of directly reducing poverty and im- C6te d'Ivoire study - were natural partners, but proving living conditions for the poor. By the end funding was a problem. The solution: bring them of the 1970s this new mandate had clearly influ- together under the auspices of a research project eitced the makeup of Bank lending, but the large funded by the Research Support Budget.8 A new flow of resources into this international war on questionnaire was designed to meet monitoring poverty began to raise questions among support- and analysis objectives, and the COte d'Ivoire ers and skeptics. Were the Bank's programs ac- Living Standards Survey (CILSS) was launched in tually reaching the poor? Were the effects of the 1985. program permanent or temporary? When staff, Theproject wasbyall measuresa success, due in management, and the Board asked these questions, large part to its combination of research and op- it became clear that national data systems were erational support. Researchers provided inten- not designed to answer them. McNamara's re- sive technical assistance tc their counterparts in sponse was to estaolish the Living Standards Mea- C6te d'lvoire during the critical planning phase of surement Study (LSMS).' The study's mandate the project. Operational staff provided invaluable was to develop an integrated data collection and oversightaspartof their regular mission activities analysis system that would provide project de- to Abidjan and worked with research staff to put signers with information on the poor, their condi- together a funding package (part Research Sup- tions and behavior, and that would permit the port Budget, part technical assistance) to under- Bank and others to assess the effectiveness of write the pr(.ject's substantial startup costs. Op- efforts to reduce poverty and to design cost-effec- erational contacts in Abidjan helped researchers tive programs for reaching the poor. identify an administrative home for the project In the study's early years LSMS staff concen- and smoothed the way for a new administrative trated on assessing past attempts to monitor liv- structure to manage the project. Operational staff ing conditions and measure changes in those con- also opened doors to the Ivorian user community ditions. By 1983 they had developed a lengthy - the ministries and directorates that would ul- draft questionnaire and several prototype studies timately use the data - so that their views and to demonstrate how to use the new data. During concerns could influence the initial design. this phase the project's links to operations were With guidance from the Bank's Population and minimal, and operational reactions to the project Human Resources Department, the philosophy predictable: another expensive academic exercise and much of the specific methodology behind the of little use to staff in the trenches. Moreover, by Cote d'Ivoire Living Standards Survey (CILSS) the end of 1983 a near standoff had developed have now spread to nearly a dozen countries (see 4 box 2). The LSMS model is also one of thebuilding history at the Bank, one that illustrates well the blocks for the Social Dimensions of Adjustment traditional interplay between operations and re- (SDA), the major initiative to improve the Bank's search. New research often starts with the devel- ability to protect Sub-Saharan Africa's poor dur- opment of a theory or model to address a specific ing timesof economic crisis.' LSMSdata provided problem. However, initial variants may not im- the basis for a good part of the detailed analysis for mediately be useful in operations. Bank research- the World Development Report 1990 on poverty and ers are then drawn into mission activities, and serves as a test of several of the major recommen- these experiences lead to a second generation of dations in the forthcoming policy paper on pov- models that can be applied to real world settings. erty. 1o Many of these new efforts have developed Along the way new issues arise, new research through the initiative of operational staff, and all starts, and the cycle begins again. Researchers have involved substantial collaboration between 3ush the intellectual frontiers. Operational staff research and operational staff. provide the questions and the constraints. The Had the LSMS project been located outside the active participation of both parties is what makes Bank, there islittle doubt that it would have ended Bank policy innovative and practical. up as yet another dust-covered entry in the annals Before 1980 Bank policy advice on tax issues of household survey history. The willingness of was for the most part limited to policy issues Bank operational staff to incorporate new ideas involving specific sectors; the IMF was respon- into their lending programs (again, see box 2) was sible for national tax structures asa whole. Opera- just as important to the current success of the tions work was increasingly focused on tax issues LSMS model as were the painstaking research as the key to domestic resource mobilization to inputs that shaped its original design. relieve the debt crisis. In parallel, the Bank began an internationally recognized body of research on Traditional interaction between research and optimal taxation; a significant product of this pe- operations: tax policy research riod was The Theoy of Taxation for Developing Countries, u the most definitive source on this Research on fiscal issues in general - and tax topic so far. issues in particular - has a long End respected Bank research on tax issues changed in the early Box 2 Operations and the LSMS The LSMS system's ability to deliver a wide spectrum of sign and implementation, the first phase of the new Jamai- information on poor households quickly and accurately has can Survey of Living Condi!.4ns was grafted onto an exist- made it increasingly popular for the design of structural ing labor force survey. The adoption of the LSMS method- adjustment programs. Adjustment operations in Ghana, ology to this newsettingrequiredacoordinatedandintensive Mauritania, Jamaica, and Bolivia have all used the LSMS effort by all three parties involved. ISMSstaff had to adapt methodology to monitor the poor during adjustment and to the wording of the questionnaire to the new system. Bank design new programs to protect them. New surveys are operational staff had to provide an overall policy focus for about to be launched in Morocco, Pakistan, Laos, and the new survey. And Jamaican collaborators had to ensure Venezuela, and discussions are under way in a half dozen that the new approach would work in Jamaica. The col- other countries. laboration went smoothly. In a remarkably short nine Jamaica is a particularly interesting case because it illus- months after the project was launched, the new survey tratesonceagain thedistinct rolesof researchers, operational produced a set of baseline data on poverty and the use of staff, and local counterparts. In January 1988, as Jamaica's social services by the poor that operational staff and the Human Resource Development Program was nearing Jamaican government could use to design specific elements implementation, the Bank received a personal request from of the Human Resources Development Program. The speed the Prime Minister. would the Bank work with Jamaican of implementing the first phase of the survey was instru- statisticians to establish an LSMS system to monitor the mental in establishing the Jamaican government' solid program's effects? Could a system be developed and put in commitment tosubsequentrefinements of the survey. More place fast enougn to provide baseline data against which the recent analysis of the survey has led to major changes in program's impact could be measured? Jamaica's Food Stamp Program, mak . it much more ef- A team of LSMS researchers, Bank operational staff, and fective and efficient in providing nutrition to the poor and Jamaican statistical experts took up the challenge. To avoid protecting them during periods of structural adjustment. duplication, lower costs, and reduce the time between de- 5 1980s, due largely to the involvement of Bank vice. In six months the team drew up a series of researchers in operational work that highlighted options for reforming Malawi's tax system. These the drawbacks of a sector-by-sector approach. options were based on principles developed dur- The starting point for this change came in 1983 ingtheIndianexercise,butwithonemajorchange. during a dialogue with India on the desirability of The mathematical models for India could not be changing its coal pricing policy to increase rev- applied to Malawi because much of the required enues from the sale of government-mined coal. data did not exist. Researchers came away from Thereviewledtotwounexpectedfindings. First, this experience with a clearer understanding of the Indian government had good reason to be the constraints that operational staff face in apply- skeptical of the net revenue gains from such a ing the newly developed tax models to data-poor change. The government was a major coal con- countries. sumer, so net revenue increases would be much The Malawi tax work was in many respects a lower than projected. Second, and of wider sig- watershed for Bank tax research. ' The mission's nificance, staff realized that exploring revenue success demonstrated the value of systemwide issues within a single sector - the coal-producing tax analysis and showed that many of the prin- sector in India - was analytically and practically ciples of modern tax theory could be applied even wrong. Public sector price and tax issues should in data-poor environments. The Malawi work be assessed in much broader terms than had tradi- also underscores two general lessons for the Bank: tionally been the case. the need to have highly skilled researchers avail- The realization that taxes and public sector pric- able for operational mission work, and the critical ing had to be considered in concert, not as a set of role of operational work in redirecting research. isolated policies, led to a new program of tax Bank researchers had to reconsider such diverse research that extended over much of the 1980s. issues as the relationship between a country's The research began with an effort to develop a internal tax system and its trade tariffs, including model of tax analysis that recognized the interde- the efficacy and efficiency of uniform tariffs, the pendence of prices and taxes economywide. The relative merits of tariffs and internal taxes on model had its intellectual roots in earlier research imported goods as sources of revenue, the admin- on optimal taxation, which was highly theoretical istrative complexities of value-added tax systems and demanding of data, but the emphasis had (see box 3), and cash flow versus accrual methods shifted to developing analytical concepts and tools for corporate taxation. The experience proved applicable in actual country settings. The first instrumental in opening the door to new tax work multisectoral tax model was developed for ap- inotherpartsofSub-SaharanAfrica-withGhana, plication in the Indian context, and researchers Nigeria, and Zaire as prime examples.'3 In 1986 a soon extended the model to other settings. Paki- similar, but analytically more sophisticated, ap- stan and Mexico wereselected foradditional work proach was also successfully applied to to test the model's applicability, first in a similar Bangladesh. At thispoint regional staff also began context and then in a very different one. conducting tax analysis based on the same general The need for a broader approach became even intellectual approach in Morocco and Turkey. clearer in a series of country studies in Sub-Sa- The story so far has emphasized the role of haran Africa. The first of these took place in 1984 operations in shaping research, but there has been when Malawi was negotiating a major structural con.derable movement in the other direction as adjustment loan that involved new sector-specific well. The Bank's work on value-added taxes taxes. With considerable foresight, Malawi's Min- (VATs) shows how research influences opera- ister of Finance asked the Bank to expand its tions. In 1986 the research complex sponsored a analysis to the entire tax structure. The Bank's conference on value-added taxation that consid- research management responded by sending a ered both the underlying theory and the imple- five-person mission in May 1985 to review all mentation of VATs. 14 Practical experience in aspects of Malawi's tax system. Malawi and Zaire showed that simple VAT-type The scale and nature of Bank support in this area taxes could bedesigned to work in administratively were unprecedented, as detailed analysis and constrained settings. In addition to placing the advice on general tax policy issues had tradition- Bank at the center of professional debate and ally been provided by the IMF. Bank and Fund d'scussion on developing-country tax reform is- staff soon agreed, however, that the Bank comple- sues, the conference led to the rapid acceptance of mented the Fund's ability to offer tax policy ad- VATs as a core element of tax reform packages. 6 And, of course, the findings and implications of heated as trade policy became the leading edge of the Bank's tax research were a major input to the mostBank-approvedadjustmentprograms. While World Development Report 1988 on public finance an increasingly large section of the economics in development. profession accepted the importance of openness The Bank's research on tax issues is now in- in international trade, the Bank'soperational staff creasingly emphasizing sectoral issues, especially found it difficult to convince their counterparts in the role of taxation in controlling environmental member countries of the benefits of liberalizing degradation. " This is, therefore, an appropriate trade barriers. Dismantling distorted trade re- time to synthesize the policy lessons froma decade gimes - ones dominated by high tariffs, wide- of research and operational work. The taxation spread quantitative restrictions, and rigidly policy paper now under preparation will bring to managed and overvalued exchange rates - can an effective close a productive chapter in theBank's be painful not only for those who benefit directly continuing tax research. 16 from restrictive practices but for the economy as a whole. Were the gains worth the perceived eco- Traditional interaction between research and nomic and political costs? As the Bank increas- operations: trade policy research ingly emphasized trade policy as the centerpiece of adjustment reforms, demand grew within the The Bank has been a serious player in trade policy Bank for two new types of trade policy research. research for the better part of two decades. Obvi- Operational staff asked for convincing evidence ously, a full characterization of the work during onthebenefitsoftradeliberalizationinlow-income that period cannot be attempted here. What we and middle-income developing countries and on provide instead is an example of how research in the main costs associated with trade liberaliza- the Bank's principal economic policy areas is pro- tion. They also wanted more guidance on de- duced, fed into operations, and influenced by signing and packaging trade liberalization pro- operations - to illustrate the payoff from main- grams, especially on how trade reforms fit with taining a core of high-quality research activities in other policies and projects. key policy areas. These operational concerns about practical mat- In the 1970s the Bank's trade policy researchers ters of trade policy and the solid foundation of were on the cutting edge of the professional de- conceptual work by Bank researchers in the 1970s bate over the role of trade in economic develop- served as the launching pad for several major ment. But for at least a part of that decade, they research efforts in the 1980s. The largest initiative were out of step with the development community on trade-related issues came in 1984 in the form of at large. By 1980, however, the economics profes- a major Bank comparative study, an effort to learn sion had reached broad agreement on the central from the trade reform experiences of 19 develop- role of international trade in promoting economic ing countries (see box4 overleaf). This project and development, and the Bank was beginning to related Bank-sponsored research addressed such develop a clear sense of the advice it should give practical questions as the relationship between member countries on trade issues. trade and fiscal reform, the complementary policy Trade is - and always has been - a complex andprojectchangesneeded to make tradereforms and contentious area, one that became even more work, and the political challenges of making trade Box 3 More lessons from Malawi an administratively simple tax system Mission work can yield insights that feed into future re- existing system to see if it could be simplified. What they search and operational work. In Malawi, for example, Bank found was a set of tax regulations and collection mecha- researchers learned the value of a thorough and complete nisms as administratively demanding as a VAT system but understanding of the tax system in operation. At the outset with precisely the opposite efficiency and neutrality effects of the tax discussions, Bank staff recommended that the ofaVAT. Armed with thisevidence, theteamconvinced the government broaden its tax base and minimize tax-induced Malawian authorities to implement what became known as distortions by establishing a value-added tax (VAT) system. a "proto-VAT," a relatively simple VAT that captured many The initial response was that a VAT, desirable as it might be of the benefits of a more complicated VAT system but with on theoretical grounds, would impose unmanageable de- only a marginal increase in administrative costs over the tax mands on an already overburdened tax administration s-tem already in place. system. The Bank team decided to take a closer look at the 7 and other policy reforms credible and sustainable. pervasive systems of quantitative restrictions with By the mid-1980s the payoff to a decade and a tariffs. Again, earlier research had focused ex- half of high-quality Bank research on trade policy plicitly on this issue, which led to rapid progress was evident. Many of the countries facing trade in the policy dialogue. reform challenges were middle-income develop- By the end of the 1980s the Bank's trade policy ing countries with civil servants sophisticated in work had reached a natural point of consolida- economic analysis. Bank staff found that to be tion. The World Development Report 7987 brought persuasive ir. policy negotiations they had to be together much of the accumulated knowledge of armed with the best up-to-date arguments and the past two decades, and Bank staff produced a analysis on trade issues. policy paper that set out the practical lessons from Mexico is a case in point. Mexico's well-known both research and experience. Man)' of the state- efforts to reform its trade systembegan in the early ments in that paper look comfortably obviousand 1980s, and by 1985 attention was concentrated on predictable from today's vantage point, but they reducing barriers to imports needed to fuel the would have looked radical and untested as re- expanding economy. In the extensive discus- cently as a decade ago. sions, analysis, and policy design work between We have also learned much from reform epi- 1985 and 1989, Bank staff sat across the table from sodes that have not achieved their objectives. We someof thebest-trainedgovernmenttradeecono- now know that macroeconomic instability and mists in the world.* The fact that Bank research institutional barriers can thwart even the best- had addressed the main issues on the negotiating designed trade liberalization program. The Bank's table, most notably how to sequence trade reform theories of the 1970s were correct, but their appli- and stabilization efforts, did much to move these cation to real country settings was not quite as discussions forward. simple. As for the future, trade policy reseacch In Africa the issues are different. Countries are will remain an important element in thce Bank's less convinced of the need for trade reform and research portfolio (see box 5). The increasing want to know more about the institutional and integration of Eastern Europe into the world infrastructural investments that have to accom- economy, the role of trade policy in accelerating pany trade reform to make it work. Some of these the return to growth following adjustment, and concerns had been addressed in earlier Bank re- the need to assimiate the results of the Uruguay search on trade, and some had led to the formula- Round of trade negotiations into Bank policy tion of new research projects. And in South Asia, guidelines - all these represent significant new countries want to know how to replace their often challenges to the Bank's trade policy researchers. Box 4 The first of the comparative studies Redirecting resources toward new and pressing research small part because the external researchers wereabletogive needs is a perennial challenge. In the first half of the 1980s, the project top priority. Second, most of the outside re- the Bank's research management launched a series of large searchers were drawn from the countries being studied, research projects, each addressing a critical policy area in contributing significantly to the growth of local research which fundamental professional disagreements were slow- capacity. ing policy formulation. Each study would draw its findings But there were drawbacks as well. The project's reliance from detailed analyses of experiences in 15 to 20 countries. on outside researchers, and the prevailing tensions within The prototype for the program was a study of the Timing the Bank on trade issues, created an early perception that and Sequencing of Trade Liberalization 1 which addressed this exercise was outside the mainstream of Bank rescarch. a series of practical questions about the design of trade The project managers had to work especially hard to bring reform policy. The questions the project set out to answer operational staff into the project's planning, review, and were large and, at $2.3 million, so was the project. dissemination stages. As the project matured and, perhaps The trade liberalization study was funded through a moreimportant,asitsmanagersmoved intooperations, the grant from the Research Support Budget, managed by a payoff to the intensive country-specific work became obvi- small group of Bank researchers, and carried out almost ous. An enormous well of information on trade reform exclusively by researchers outside the Bank. The project's episodes now exists for Bank operational staff to draw on. relianceon external researchershad two important benefits. Thesetof country studies (in six volumes) and thesynthesis First, theprojectfinishedon timeand within budget -in no volume from the project are receiving wide attention. n 8 Technical research tance of the HDM's basic goal: to develop a meth- odology to address the choice of appropriate Although the largest part of the Bank's internally standards and technology in the highway sector. managed research portfolio concerns questions of The Bank's initial involvement in this area came policy design and relies on socioeconomic meth- in a 1969 collaborative effort with the Massachu- ods, the Bank does support research on technical setts Institute of Technology (MIT) to develop the issues. The case that follows brings out the chal- first conceptual framework for quantifying the lenge of undertaking technical research in-house relationships among highway construction, and the advantages and disadvantages of having maintenance, and vehicle operating costs. This such research done by outsiders. early workled toa prototypeHighwayCost Model Technical research tends to require substantial and to a major collaboration with the United resources relative to other aspects of the Bank's Kingdom's Transportation and Road Research research portfolio, and projects sometimes take a Laboratory and the Kenya Ministry of Works. The decade or more rather than months or years. That goat of this collaboration was to estimate, for the is why most technical research supported by the first time, the effects of road surface conditions on Bank is carried out under some form of consulta- vehicle speeds and vehicle operating costs based tive arrangement. The work of the Consultative on field experience in a developing country. Group on International Agricultural Research is AstheKenyanprojectmovedforward,theHDM an obvious example, as is the Onchocerciasis team began to suspect that a large part of the Control Program. Although the Bank has im- problem lay with the assumptions in project de- portant supportive and substantive roles in these sign about the relationship between vehicle oper- research efforts, it does not handle day-to-day ating costs and road conditions. The Kenyan details. Technical research actually managed and study found clear evidence that improved high- produced by Bank staff is a rarer commodity. One way maintenance offered high economic rates of of the largest examples of such research is the return, and the study team refocused the research Highway Design and Maintenance Standards to compare the relative benefits and costs of new (HDM) study. 21 construction versus increased maintenance. In Project support for highways has been a main- the next phase, extensive field research was con- stay of Bank lending for decades, but the results of ducted under a Bank-executed UNDP project in vast outlays of resources have been less enduring Brazil 1 and in complementary studies in India 24 than project designers had hoped. Recent Bank and the Caribbean, "yielding greatly expanded estimates put the loss of road infrastructure in 88 data sets, advanced statistical methodologies, and developing countries over the past two decades at more widely applicable conclusions. A unified $45 billion. I This loss underscores the impor- Highway Design and Maintenance Standards Box 5 The Trade Expansion Program As a direct outcome of the comparative study on trade trade poucy and research not directly connected to a struc- liberalization, the Bank launched the Trade Expansion Pro- tur.1 adjustment program. Morocco's mission underscores giam (TEP) in 1987, a joint program of technical assistance ;ne critical role of local policymakers in promoting policy with the United Nations Development Programme. 2 The dialogue. At the time of the project's interim report the TEP's mtin goal is to design and analyze the trade com- Minister of Trade had enough confidence in the team that ponents of adjustment programs. So far, country studies he suggested that all major players in the policy arena, have been completed for Morocco, Uganda, Mali, Mada- includingBankandFundcountryoperationsstaff,beinvited gasar, Poland, Uruguay, andGuatemala. Other studies are to thediscussions as information participants. Theresulting under way for Kenya and in the development stage for Peru exchange was open and productive, providing a much and Czechoslovakia. stronger foundation for future agreements than might Poland and Morocco are good examples of how the TEP otherwise have been the case. works. The Poland Trade Expansion Mission of May 1988 The TEP has been highly successful in applying the involved dose collaboration between aneight-member team lessonsfrom past Bankresearch tospecificcountry settings, of Bank operational staff and researchers, and Polish trade due in no small part to the fact that many of the operational officials - with subteams set up to address specific topics staff involved were once researchers, now carrying the andissues. TheMoroccomission,launchedinl989,involves methods and lessons from past research with them. 9 model (HDM-II), incorporating the best features a mechanism whereby the concerns of an opera- of the MIT model and the Kenyan work, was tional organization (the Bank) can be fed into eventually used as a project appraisal tool in 18 scientific research, and placing the Bank at the countries. But by this point, concerns about the cutting edge of technical research, but they do project's ever-lengthening life cycle were begin- bring serious managerial challenges with them. ning to emerge. The location of significant parts of collaborative Two factors drove the need to rethink the HDM research outside the Bank means that the interac- project: dissatisfaction with the analysis of the tion of research and operational staff - so impor- Brazilian study data and, more important, the tant in shaping Bank research outcomes - is reluctance of operational staff to accept the proto- much less likely to arise spontaneously. Manag- type HDM models. After nearly two decades of ers responsible for technical research must pro- waiting for a highway design tool that could be vide more than the usual oversight to ensure that used in the field, operatinal staff had become projects stay on course both in their operational impatient with the project. IS, the project was objectives and in their scheduling. Integratingthe broughtfirmlywithintheBank'smanagerialwalls findings of technical research into Bank Opera- and put on a strict close-out schedule aimed at tions may also demand more of both managers giving the Operations complex a tool it could use and researchers than does internally produced with ease and understanding. The shift from research. The bottom line: although the Bank research to an operationally useful product was needs to think carefully about the managerial possible because the Bank internalized the project, challenges of developing technical research moving away from the heavy reliance on external projects, such research can have high operational collaboration that had characterized much of the payoffs. previous 20 years of work. Ironically, those in- volved in the project referred to this as the "non- * * * research phase" because it was not based on new field research. Yet it was precisely this phase that As these cases demonstrate, there is no simple eventually led to a significant operational payoff. relationship between operations and research, no The outcome of the last phase of the project, the single life-cycle for research. The patterns of final version of the HDM, was supported entirely interaction, the flows of information, who leads by Bank resources and carried out almost exclu- and who follows - all these can vary consider- sively by Bank staff. Development of the third- ably from one project to another. But some im- phase model was completed by 1984, with the portant common elements show how Bank re- help of statistical experts, and was followed by a search is at once similar to and very different from critical period of validation and refinement. Com- research in other environments. When the Bank pleted in 1987, the third-generation model was sets out to explore a new area, it must be prepared used initially to determine budget priorities for for a considerable period of investment during highway investments in Brazil, Indonesia, and which theoperational payoff maybelimited. This Niger - and later as the analytical base for a phase of Bank research often looks similar to growing number of highway projects (see box 6). "academic" research outside the Bank as re- It also became a major building block for the 1988 searchers work to adapt theories and methods to policy paper on highway maintenance and has a new problem or issue. Its direct payoff is in had substantial acceptance and influence outside underscoring the Bank's intellectual leadership in the Bank. the development research community. Although the Bank's experience with large-scale At the end of this initial investment period, both technical research is limited, the highway mainte- researchers and their work are at a crossroads. nance study suggests some general lessons. Tech- The methods and theories are there. But how nical research is almost always an expensive should they be refined? How can they be made proposition and is likely to take a sustained com- practical? At this stage the road taken often de- mitment to bring to fruition. These characteristics pends on the influence of Bank operations. The make it difficult for the Bank to go it alone-hence enormityof the Bank's challengeand the influence the tendency for collaborative arrangements and of real world constraints are instrumental and consortia involving other donors and other re- essentialinensuringthatappliedresearchbecomes searchers. Collaborative arrangementshave many policy research. Operations'influence on research advantages, among them cost-sharing, providing can be subtle and indirect, but as every case dis- 10 Box 6 The Highway Design and Maintenance Standards Model at work The final versions of the Highway Design and Maintenance the basis of official evaluation methodology in Australia StandardsModel (HDM-1l)anditscompanion Expenditure and New Zealand. BudgetingModel (EBM) are now supportingpolicy analysis One of the dearest indications of the growing popularity in a variety of country settings. After earlier use in project of the *'DM methodology is the increased demand for lending, the new HDM model has been incorporated in HDM *d training. To date the Bank has either assisted regular planning and programming procedures in Chile, or facilita I both Bank and non-Bank sponsored training in Indonesia, and Niger and for federal roads in Brazil. Similar Argentina, Brazil, Chile, China, Kuwait, Mexico, Niger, and implementation is progressing in Thailand, Yugoslavia, Thailand as well as in Finland,Germany, and New Zealand. and the 10 countries of the Southern Africa Development It has also supported international courses hi France, India, Coordination Conference. For Niger's small low-volume the United Kingdom, and Yugoslavia. It is proving a popular road network, a simplified version was first implemented tool for policy analysis in regional transportation seminars, for annual programming and later supplemented by the full including a series of Latin American conferences on highway version for policy analysis. In Chile the model was used to maintenance, and high-level policy seminars for the road develop a comprehensive five-year plan under budget maintenance initiative of the Sub-Saharan Africa Transport constraints for the entire country as part of consolidating Program organized by EDI and the UN Economic Com- responsibility for construction and maintenance. It also mission for Africa. served as the basis for the recent $224 million Bank sector The HDM has also been the basis for a pilot program loan to Chile. Elsewhere, the model has been used to aimed at testing the feasibility of nongovernmental organi- evaluate expenditure priorities and maintenance standards zations as a vehicle for disseminating the model. McTrans, in Costa Rica, Ghana, Nigeria, Pakistan, and Yugoslavia, an affiliate of the University of Florida, is under contract to and continues to be used for project evaluation in many theBankforworldwidedistributionanduser-supportofthe countries. It has been used for road transport pricing in model. The International Road Federation (in the United Tunisia, and for modernizing truck regulations in India. In States) and PTRC (in the United Kingdom) use the model in industrialcountriesithasbeentestedandappliedinCanada their commercial training programs on road management and the United Kingdom, and elements of the model form for developing countries. cussed here demonstrates, it is very real. At their - but not too separately - from Operations best, Operations staff and researchers work to- creates unique organizational and management gether to discover new solutions to old problems challenges. Research managers must ensure that and, not infrequently, a host of new problems as theirstaffarepursuinginstitutionalprioritieswhile well. This cross-fertilization is what makes Bank at the same time giving them room to explore new research unique. avenues and develop new ideas. Operational The cases presented above also carry with them support must be encouraged - but not just any important messages for the management of Bank operation will do. Researchers should not simply research beyond the critical role of interactions augment the staffing in Operations. Instead, they between researchers and Operations staff. First, must direct their efforts toward innovative opera- research is inherently more uncertain than many tions in which the types of interactions illustrated other tasks undertaken in the Bank. If research is above are likely to be greatest. Achieving this to yield its maximum payoff neither the process balancebetweendirectionand flexibility,between nor the people can be too closely constrained. operational needs for research support and re- Second, the need to stay the course during the searchers' needs for operational experience is the "investment" period through whichmostresearch principal role of Bank research managers. While projects pass implies a need for some degree of we are constantly learning about what works and institutional separation between research and what does not work in the Bank's research pro- Operations. Third, operational support is not gram, mechanisms are now in place - for setting something that researchers provide solely for the the research agenda, for encouraging cross-fertili- benefit of Operations. It is an essential input into zation, and for translating research findings into a researcher's ability to identify new problem operational tools - to ensure that the "creativ,e areas and to refine ideas and methods as a re- tension" that research faces in an operational in- search project develops. stitution is channeled into a productive and unique The need for researchers to function separately work program. 26 Part II Highlights of the research program in fiscal 1990 The term "research" covers a wide range of ana- Thispartof the report gives anoverviewof three lytical activities - much wider, in fact, than the aspects of the fiscal 1990 research program. It range of activities discussed in this report. The begins with a review of efforts ,o increase research Bankhasforsometimedivideditsanalyticalwork activities in the three areas identified by the Re- into three parts: research, policy formulation, and search and Publications Policy Council for special economic and sector work. Research is an invest- priority in fiLcal 1990 and beyond (the environ- ment in knowledge that tends to look at issues and ment, private sector development, and socialist questions with a broad prospective impact on economies). It thenprovideshighlightsof research Bank operations-broad in the sense that findings completed in fiscal 1990 and shows how that are useful beyond the narrow confines of a specific research serves institutional priorities. The final country or lending operation. Policy formulation section discusses continuing efforts to improve is the translation of the findings of research into the dissemination of Bank research inside and specific and operationally relevant guidelines. outside the institution's walls - and on the rap- Economic and sector work involves the appli-ation idly expanding program to build research capac- of the findings of research and policy work to the ity in Sub-Saharan Africa. needs of specific countries, operations, and projects. While there are no hard and fast lines Research priorities separating these three activities, each has a dis- tinctive character, and each is a part of the overall Last year's annual report on research promised production of sound policy and project advice to significant progress in establishing research pro- member countries. gramsinthreeareas: theenvironmentand forestry, By convention, this report covers only research the development of the private sector, and the in the narrow knowledge-building sense of the reform of socialist economies. Below we outline term, research that amounts to less than a fifth of the nature of the ongoing research that grew out of the Bank's total analytical work (see boxes 7 and 8 these efforts. Much of the work described here is overleaf and appendix 1, which contains a fuller still at an early stage, so the discussion focuses explanation of the different aspects of Bank ana- mainly on research program building and work- lytical work). The report excludes reviews of in-progress rather than on the findings of com- project-financed research and research carried out pleted projects. under consortium arrangements, such as that of the Consultative Group for International Agricul- THE ENVmoNmFNr AND FoREsTRY. Research on the tural Research or the research components of the environment proceeded along two parallel and Energy Sector Management Assistance Program complementary strands in fiscal 1990. One strand (see box 9 on page 15). comprises six research areas in the Sector Policy 12 Box 7 Research spending and staff time both up in fiscal 1990 Bank research draws on two major sources of funding (see anda majoreffortlaunched by he Research Administrator's appendix I for details): the Research Support Budget (RSB) office to reduce RSB expenditure slippage by imposing and the resources of departments, mainly staff time. The tighter budgetary controls on RSB-funded projects. RSB RSl3 funds research proposals submitted by departments disbursements are expected to return to their long-run level throughout the Bank that are approved by the Research of about $5 million in fLscal 1991. Connittee, Although the RSBallocation is about $5 million in contrast to the sharp rise in RSB expenditures in fiscal Lach year, actual disbursements have tended to lag behind 1990, staff years devoted to research and research-related piojc\t authoritations. In fiscal 1989, for example, actual activities (preparing research proposals, for example) have disbursements from the RSB totaled only $3.6 million (see risen more steadill since 1987. The nine staff-year increase box figure'7.1). The shortfall in disbursements reflects the between fiscal 1989 and fiscal 1990 (from 122 to 131 staff surnoftwofactors, thelaggedeffectofthereorganizationon years-see tab!e 4.2 in appendix 4 for details) camealmost research proposal preparations and a tendency for research entirely from an increase in departmentally supported .e- project supervisors to 't RSB-supported research spending search in the Sector Policy and Research complex, reflec"ng slip ii [he face of the many competing demands they face. the increased attention such issues as the environn.znt, I lh i_al 1990 the RSB disbursed a record $6.4 million. This women in development, and human resource development inear-doubling of RSB disbursements resulted from two are receiving. faco,: a steady growth in the RSB project portfolio (bix 8); ISE spending, research staff years on the rise 1987 1988 1989 1990 140 120 100 80 60 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 Staff years Thousands of dollars Research activities during fiscal 1990 represented about Box figure 7.2 Analytical work 18 percent of the total analytical work undertaken by the Bank in support of its operations, up from about 14 percent 1, in fiscal 1989 (see appendix 4, table 4.1). (Economic and Economic and sector work and policy analysis accounted for 54 percent sector work and 28 percent, respectively.) Asashareof the Bank's fiscal 54% administrative budget in 1990, research activities accounted Policy analysis for roughly 4.2 percent, compared with 3.5 percent in each 28% of the preceding three fiscal years. ad Research (PRS) wing of PRE. The second was published by the Bank jointly with the World involves research by other PRE departments and Resources Institute, the International Union for divisions. (Several regional research programs theConservationof NatureandNatural Resources, ais emphasize environmental concerns. These Conservation International, and the World Wild- are reviewed in part III of this report.) We turn life Fund. 27 first to research being developed in the Environ- * Land degradation. This work covers the man- ment Departmcrt. agement of land resources under rainfed condi- -*Na!ural habitats. This work focuse on reduc- tions. Its main focus is on identifying policy, ing the destruction of habitats, especially defores- managerial, and technical failures and proposing tation and the degradation or conversion of remedial measures. Several workingpapershave rangelands,andincludesissuesofbiodiversity. A been prepared on these issues. The drylands report, Conserving the World's biological Diversity, issue, especially for the Sahel, is receiving special 13 Box 8 The Research Support Budget: more proposals, tighter funding authorizations The Research Support Budget (RSB) is a bellwether of the Policy and Research complex, 39 percent to Development Bank's research program. Requests for RSB funding are a Economics, and the remaining one quarter to the regions leading indicator both of the health of theresearch program (about half of the RSB funding to the regions went for two and of the degree to which departments are seeking addi- capacity building grants to African research institutions tional resources to augment their own allocations to re- admini3teredthroughtheAfricaRegion'sChiefEconomist's search. office - see appendix 4, table 4.6 for details). During fiscal 1990, the centrally funded research portfo- For the 50 research proposals funded (setting aside the ho contained 160 active projects, up from 134 in fiscal 1989. research preparation grants), about one third of approved Of these 160 projects, 79 were new starts (see appendix 4, funds went to projects under $100,000 in total value, a little table 4.6), including 29 research preparation activities. Sixty- less than a third to projects in the $100,000 to $300,000 range, five projects were closed during the fical year, leaving an and the largest share went to projects above $300,000 (box active portfolio of 95 projects. figure 8.2). A comparison with fiscal 1989 figures shows a This increase in the RSB oortfolio reflects a continuing significant increase in the amount of funding for larger growth in proposals submitted for RSB funding - the proposals (no RSB grant exceeded $600,000), a trend consis- Research Committee revifwed 108 submissions in fiscal tent with a research program that has progressed from a 1990, up 25 percent from fiscal 1989 (box figure 8.1). The rebuilding to a mature stage. bulk of these proposals, nearly four fifths, came from PRE The increasing demand for RSB resources and the fixed with the remaining fifth coming principally from the re- size of that budget led to a decline in the rate of approval for gions. The Research Committee funded a total of $5.2 both proposals and dollars requested. The approval rate for million of new research in fiscal 1990 (compared with $3.4 the number of proposn!s reviewed in fiscal 1990 fell to 76 million in fiscal 1989), of which34percent went to the Sector percent, down from 84 percent in fiscal 1989. The decline in dollar amounts approved as a percentage of dollar amounts requested was even more striking, from 55 percent in fiscal 1989 to 41 percent in fiscal 1990. Box figure 8.1 RSB proposals and approvals To manage this rapid growth in the number of centrally funded research projects, the Research Administrator's of- fice is commissioning a research management information 1989 Approvals-84% 86 Proposals system, RAMIS. Once it is fully operational, RAMIS will provide a point-source for information on projects in the 1990 Approvals -76% RSBportfolio,facilitatinginitialinternalandexternalreview, 10 posals monitoring, and post-completion evaluation. This system will also be able to track the increased flow of manuscripts for the Bank's two professional journals. Box figure 8.2 Distribution of RSB approvals, by amount of funding requested more than $300,000 - $100,000 - more than $100.000 - $300,000 $300,000 $300,000 up to $100,000 up to $100,000 1989 1990 14 Box 9 Research with external funding There currently are 24 externally funded programs in the ments, donors, and potential investors with inforr lion PRE complex, the most significant of which are the Energy needed to identify sound energy projects and to accelerate Sector Management Assistance Program and the Water and their implementation. The program's research and policy Sanitation Program. Other large programs include EDI activities are developed in conjunction with the Bank's own cofinancing and those for urban management, the environ- program, and considerable economiesof scale are gained in ment, women in development, Sub-Saharan hydrological the process. The ESMAP policy and research work analyz- assessment, and theTrade Expansion Program. (Thisreport ing cross-country trends and issues in specific energy does not cover the inputs and outputs of these programs.) subsectors also complements Bak policy and sector work These programs vary in their underlying objectives, but in energy by highlighting critical problems and suggesting almost all involve some element of research. solutions for dealing with them. ENERGY SacmR MANAGEMENT AssisTANcE PROGRAM (ESMAP). WATsR AND sANrrATION PROGRAM. The UNDP-World Bank The ESMAP program was launched jointly by the World Water andSanitation Program began asajoint effort in 1978. Bank and UNDP in 1983 as a companion to the Energy With the launching of the International Drinking Water Assessment Program, a program established three years Supply and Sanitation Decade by the UN in 1980, the pro- earlier to id-ntify the most serious energy problems facing gram became a key component in the global effort to bring developing countries after the oil price shock. The major clean water and sanitation to those who need them most. objectivesofESMAParetoprovideapre-investmentfacility The program's objective is to help participating countries to help implement the recommendations of the Energy extend water supply, sanitation, and waste management Assessment Program, and to provide governments advice services to low-income rural and periurban populations on energy policy. ESMAP is engaged in energy related pre- currently unserved. Several aspects of this poverty allevia- investmentandpre-feasibilityactivitiesinabout60 ountries tion program relate ck sely to three other Bank special and is providing broad-ranging institutional and policy emphases: environent, women in development, and pri- advice. vate sector developmV t/public sector management. The The funding and recommendations emerging from indi- program is under!axb ig applied research, policy work, and vidual country-specific ESMAP activities provide govern- operational activitic: n 40 countries and at the global level. attention. A major publication, prepared pintly * Globalcommor.- Theeconomicsof controlling with the Asia Technical Department, deals with or limiting chloro-Cu -)rocarbon (CFC) emissions "Watershed Development in Asia: Strategies and are being studied, .i: are methods of improving Technologies." 28 enforcement of the .Iontreal Protocol. Policy * Water resources degradation. Competingclaims developments relating to greenhouse gases and for water from growing population and economic global climate chang! ai.d their relevance are be- activities and the unde:lying causes of water stress ing monitored. Some transnational and regional are being studied, with a focus on how to improve effects, includingacid rain in Asia and groundwa- the efficiency of water management. Research on ter depletion in the Mediterranean region, are also integrated water resource planning cuts across being studied. This work provides analytical traditional sectoral lines, linking, for example, support for the establishment of a global environ- irrigation and municipal water supply issues. mental facility and its future operation. * Urban, industrial, and agricultural pollution. A * Environmental economics and instituti:'-s. This broad range of air, water, and land pollution cross-cutting work spans the spectrum of envi- effects due to urban, industrial, and agricultural ronmental issues and will contribute to and draw toxic effluents, emissions, and wastes is under from the work described above. Particularly im- study. Industrial, agroindustrial, and urban case portant are cost-benefit case studies in several studies are examining the effectiveness of eco- sectors, ecosystem studies (on tropical forests and nomic and regulatory policy instruments, and river basins), environmental-macroeconomic several working papers have been prepared on studies (environmental accounting, trade policy, these issues. Research on risk and disaster man- and resource degradation linkages), studies on agement (both natural and manmade systems) is making the concept of sustainable development emphasizing cost-effective, proactive prevention an operational goal, and studies on using geo- measures. Several papers have been produced, graphic information to improve economic and a well-attended international conference took decisionmaking. place at the Bank in June 1990.2 To complement the ongoing work in Sector 15 Policy and Research, the Development Econom- solutions feasible. Of direct policy relevance, the ics (DEC) vice presidency launched a research researchshowsthatdevelopedcountryapproaches program on environmental economics and insti- to environmental control that depend on "com- tutions. The premise that environmental degra- mand and control" techniques are not likely to dation is exacerbated by two types of failure - workwell inthe relatively weak regulatory climate market failure and policy failure - guides DEC's in many developing countries.' Operational work research program. Market failures can be cor- in Indonesia, the Philippines, and Nigeria is al- rected through a variety of policy instruments ready building on these findings. such as taxes and regulations, and work is under Bank research is also sounding the alarm on the way to adapt these instruments to the adminis- rapidly escalating problem of automotive pollu- trative and economic conditions of developing tion in the cities of developing countries. By the countries. Correcting policy failure requires un- end of this century, people in nearly 400 cities will derstanding how various policies affect and con- be exposed to dangerous levels of air pollution. tribute to environmental degradation. The most promising solutions appear to involve DEC researchers are investigating appropriate administratively simple policies that encourage tax instruments, the regulatory framework, and the use of -leaner fuels, the control of vehicle the relationship between subsidies and environ- exhaust emissions, and better traffic management mental problems. One goal is to develop and -results finding a ready audience among devel- apply an analytical framework for evaluating the oping country city managers.3 environmental effects and economic costs of alter- native public finance instruments, including sec- PRiVATE SECTOR DEVELOPMENT. The shares of the re- ond-best instruments for addressing pollution search budget and PRE staff time for private sec- problems. tor development and public sector management To help answer the question of whether adjust- have not changed substantially since 1987. What ment policies contribute to or conflict with envi- has changed is the mix between public sector ronmental objectives, a major research project is management (which formerly took about three- looking at the impact of trade policy changes on quarters of the combined research resources) and crop mix and soil degradation in C8te d'Ivoire. - private sector development (which now will take This work will be expanded to develop a tax- more than half). onomy linking different aspects of adjustment The Private Sector Development Action Pro- policy to their environmental effects. Typically, gram3 targets several priority areas for policy and adjustment policy measures increase economic research work in the PRE c -nplex, in addition to efficiency and, at least in principle, should be work on financial developr nt. The conceptual environmentally sound. But there is concern that basis for this work prograrr :the premise that we countries may be adjusting through excessive ex- can find a better balance b ,tween markets and ploitation of natural resources, because of unfore- government, a result that would expand the scope seen externalities or market failures. for competition and reduce market failures. De- Turning to research completed in fiscal 1990, a velopment of the private sector is not an end in key finding is that much environmental damage itself but a way to increase the responsiveness of results from short-sighted policies and inadequate the economy to market signals and promote more information. A growing body of research con- efficient use of resources. firms that sensible policies and actions designed The first priority area in the action program is principally to protect the environment can con- thebusinessenvironment, where work focuses on tribute to economic progress. This work also ways to ensure a rapid and efficient supply re- shows that although price signals are important in sponse to improvements in the incentive system. determining the use of environmental resources, Regulatory reform is particularly critical for a environmental problems may be so location- supportive environment for private sector devel- specific that taxes or other differential pricing opment. Research has begun on how to balance methods maybean inefficientoradministratively deregulation with the assurance of fair market complex means of addressing them. And in some competition, better protection of consumers and cases the necessary tax on an input or product the environment, and improvements in the legal mightbesogreatastoinviteevasionorcorruption. and administrative apparatus for enforcement. Also, especially in industrial cases, the small Second, research is under way on public sector number of parties involved may make negotiated restructuring. Noteworthy isa forthcoming policy 16 paper on emerging "best practice" in divestiture The most visible evidence of the push for more of public enterprises, work on socialist economies is the newly created Third,researchonentrepreneurialdevelopment Socialist Economies Reform Unit, set up in the is examining the role of government in supporting Country Economics Department at the beginning the emergence and expansion of small and me- of 1990. The Unit provides a focal point in the dium-scale enterprises. The lessons of successful Policy and Research complex for research on the initiatives by local governments to promote entre- transformation from socialism to market-based preneurship and strategic alliances for small trad- economies. Because of the wide range of issues ing companies will also be explored. encompassed by this process, research remains The fourth area, technology, is the subject of a decentralized. The Unit complements the work of series of papers on global subsectors, with analy- other divisions - coordinating with them and ses of the implications for client countries of de- sponsoring many activities jointly - and works velopments in industrial and information tech- on a selected set of its own research initiatives. nology and associated changes in industrial struc- Work is under way or planned in five areas: ture. macroeconomic management and transitional A project just in the development stage is exam- policies; comparative studies of policies, sequenc- ining the theoretical, empirical, and policy issues ing, and performance; responses of firms to eco- involved in the private sector's provision of social nomic reform; labor-market and social issues; and services (health, education, nutrition, and family trade and financial reform. planning) in developing countries. The project * Enterprise reforms in China. Measured by in- is looking at issues of private finance, private dustrial growth rates, China's industrial sector production, the quality of services, policies to has performed remarkably well over the past four encourage private provision of service, regula- decades. Much of the growth is believed to have tory regimes and self-regulation, monitoring by come from investments rather than intensive de- consumers, nonprofit provision of services, phi- velopment. The Unit is conducting research on lanthropy, and equity and distribution. The various types of enterprises in China, a promising project's aim is to pull together a set of policy- laboratory for the study of reforms because of its related empirical questions for further study, and, major interregional differences. ultimately, to identify and develop a research * Firms'behavior in East and Central Europeduring program in this area. economic reform. Macroeconomic conditions and As to findings, many countries are witnessing a microeconomic incentives and ownership ar- profound shift in property ownership as their rangementsarechangingrapidlyinthereforming economies move from government to private con- countries of Eastern and Central Europe. How trol, with important policy implications. Work on firms respond to such changes will significantly land tenure systems in Africa found that custom- influence the successof reform programs. A study ary land rights systems adjust remarkably well to in preparation for Czechoslovakia, eastern Ger- changes in relative factor prices and in that sense many, Poland,Yugoslavia, and possibly Hungary appear to provide adequate tenure security. Na- aims to develop systematic and comparable stud- tionwide formal land titling and tenure systems iesoftheresponsesoffirmstochangingconditions do not therefore appear to be warranted in most and incentives. African countries today. Research on China's * Socialist reform programs. Becauseofthelackof lease-based land tenure system demonstrates that clear historical precedent, it will be important to it h-s done well in maintaining producer incen- analyze and compare the proposed "blueprints" tives so far. The research suggests that forced for reform for various countries, looking particu- consolidation be avoided and that legislative and larly at the major differences in reform proposals institutional conditionsbecreated to facilitate free- and sequencing. Initial research and preliminary functioning land markets and to allow market- reports have concentrated on these areas. The induced consolidation without undermining next stage involves systematically fitting the farmers' perceptions about tenure security. various countries into a framework for monitor- ing their approaches to reform and the evolving REFORM IN SOCIAUST ECONOMIES. Research on reform outcomes. in socialist economies is being carried out in most * Comparative data base. This project aims to departments of PRE and the Europe, Middle East, compile a limited set of economic and social data and North Africa (EMENA) region of the Bank. for as many socialist countries as possible (includ- 17 ing nonmember countries), together with a simi- Serving the Bank's other program objectives lar number of comparator countries and some comparator groups. The information will be orga- Bank research did produce important results in nized by economic performance, external trade the three research emphasis areas just discussed, and debt, internal finance, and social indicators. but the main emphasis in these areas during fiscal Comparing performance and income levels of 1990 was on research program building. For the socialist and other countries is problematic, so the Bank's remaining areas of operations emphasis, project will also include alternative estimates and ongoing research programs yielded important methodologies. The product should appeal to a payoffs in fiscal 1990. Here, we give examples of wide audience and offer a focus for statistical how the fiscal 1990 research program served six of work and interaction with other statistics-oriented the remaining seven areas (research in the seventh bodies. catch-all category, "Economic Management," is * Labor markets in transitional socialist countries. subsumed under the six) and highlight some of System reform in socialist countries implies enor- the main policy findings from that research. The mous changes, especially in the mechanisms for outputs and findings presented below are meant factor allocation and in processes of income gen- not to be comprehensive but to give a flavor of the eration and distribution. How labor markets and diversity of issuesbeing addressed and the nature their regulatory environment develop in the tran- of the policy outcomes. We provide references for sition is therefore important. Major changes are those wanting more detailed information, as well likely in employment and unemployment, labor as indications of levels of effort in each area (see mobility,and salary systems and structure- with box 10). macroeconomic and microeconomic effects. * Income distribution, subsidies, and social protec- ADJuSTMEN, TRADE, AND Dwr. Research for the sec- tion. Changes in the processes of income genera- ond report on adjustment lending - Country tion and distribution in reforming socialist coun- Economics Department, Adjustment Lending Poli- tries will result from changes in the operation of cies for Sustainable Growth, Policy and Research labor markets, and changes in subsidy programs Series 14 (Washington, D.C.: The World Bank, and in the prices of key wage goods that influence 1990) - demonstrated that the Bank has much to incomedistribution. How will theradical changes learn from its own experience in policy-based that are expected to accompany induitrial restruc- lending. On adjustment policy, the major lessons turing affect labor markets, and how can the effect are: remove the largest distortions first, give be cushioned without weakening reallocation in- priority to policies aimed at a permanent reduc- centives or creating an insupportable fiscal bur- tion of the fiscal deficit, and once distortions are den? Work is under way to develop an approach under control, move quickly to programs that to answering such questions. stimulate a recovery of investment. 3 * Housing reform. Housing reforms are a high- On trade policy, work is now complete that priority issue for several reasons: the large direct draws together knowledge accumulated over the impact of housing subsidies on national budgets, past decade. Among the critical messages: sub- the ineffective mobilization of household saving, stantial reductions in quantitative restrictions and the significant constraints on labor mobility and tariffs are often needed to stimulate competition; industrial location, and the high transport, en- the effects of trade reforms on the public sector ergy, and overall infrastructure intensity of the budget and macroeconomic stability must be con- urban economy. Work is under way to provide sidered in the broader policy dialogue; and the information and adequate analytical tools to guide effects of trade reforms depend on the degree of the transition from centrally planned to market- domestic deregulation and the strength of a based housing systems. A proposed research country's infrastructure and institutions. Work is project will collect comparable housing and also coming to completion on the design and household data in several countriesin cooperation sequencing of trade policy reform. Research showa with local institutions. The analysis will focus on that trade policy should be designed differently the behavior of the highty distorted ratio of hous- for countries with strong organizational capabili- ing price to income during the transition, and the ties but limited political flexibility and for coun- feasibility of alternative reform paths through an tries in which these conditions are reversed. Or- analysis of winners and losers. ganizationally strong but politically constrained 18 Box 10 Changing patterns of research emphasis: 1989 and 1990 To accord with the new categorization .-f research areas put Changing patterns of research emphasis are reflected in in place for fiscal 1991 and to give our review a forward- changing patterns of resource allocation in other areas as looking thrust, we have organized the discussion of research well: emphasis, findings, and policy implications by areas of * During fiscal 1990, 18 percent of the Research Support special research priority and by program objectives. Since Budget was devoted to work on adjustment, trade, and debt, the reorganization, however, research has been categorized down substantially from 28 percent in 198K although the by ten areas of special emphasis (see appendix 4, table 4.3), percentage of PRE staff time devoted to this research rose. and funding data for fiscal 1990 retain that structure. In most This pattern of declining RSB funding and increasing staff areas, correspondence between the two systems is easy to time is typical of research that is entering a more mature identify. phase and being internalized in the work programs of de- As would be expected, the areas singled out for special partments. priority registered increases in their shares of research funds * Human resource development accounted for 11 percent (see box figure 10.1), but, equally important, absolute levels of the Research Support Budget, up from 8.6 percent in 1989, of resources going into these areas rose sharply. with RSB research on women in development increasing * Research on theenvironment andforestry increased overall nearly fourfold. by 30 percent with a fourfold increase in funding from the * In apparent contrast, roughly 13 percent of the Research Research Support Budget (RSB expenditures are a leading Support Budget and 17 percent of PRE staff cost for research indicator of future research directions). went to research on poverty reduction and food security, * Private sector research increased by 81 percent from fiscal down somewhat from 17 percent and 25 percent in 1989. 1989 to fiscal 1990, and RSB expenditures more than doubled. Much of this change is attributable to the World Development * Although comparable figures do not exist for fiscal 1989 Report 1990, which absorbed a large fraction of PRE's work the presence of the Socialist Economies Reform Unit attests on poverty in fiscal 1990. WDR-related research is not to the very significant increase in research on transforming included in the statistics on research. socialist economies. Box figure 10.1 Re . arch on the Bank's special emphasis areas Staff ymrs Resarch Support Budget erpenditures Debt restructuring and adjustment Financial intermediation Food security Y18 O] FY 1989m Poverty alleviation FY 1990 Environment Human resources Women in development AIDS Public sector management Private sector development Oder rebearch Coordination, publication, and dissemination 0 10 20 30 0 10 20 30 (percent) (percent) 19 countries should start with indirect but adminis- SMART (Software for Market Analysis and Re- tratively intensive reforms as a way of building a strictions on Trade), developed jointly with constituency for subsequent liberalization - pro- UNCTAD and with UNDP funding to study the motingexportsby setting up bonded export facili- impact of reduced barriers on trade. 4 The pack- ties and duty and tax drawback systems, for ex- age can also be used in a "market development" ample, before trying to liberalize imports. By mode to identify opportunities for exporting in a contrast, countries with good political flexibility post-Uruguay Round world, when barriers will - or weak organizational capabilities - including - we hope - have been reduced. To date, the many in Sub-Saharan Africa -should avoid such software has been installed in nearly 40 develop- roundabout measures. 3 ing countries, and training in its use has begun for Research on real exchange rates is finding that the Bank's operational staff. Plans are also under devaluations have been more successful for coun- way to extend the SMART modeling package to tries exporting manufactured goods than for those other types of analysis such as proposals for a free- exporting primary goods (mostly low-income Af- trade area between the United States and Latin rican countries). Most adjustment in countries American countries. exporting primary goods has taken the form of Recent research on debt highlights the condi- reduced spending rather than increased supply of tions under which voluntary commercial bank exports. As a result, countries dependent on debt and debt service reduction operations are primary goods exports have not grown as ex- likely to benefit debtor countries. One important pected after devaluations. The prospects for ex- finding is that requiring new lending (instead of portersof manufactured goodsare muchbrighter. alternative debt-reduction options) is likely to Countries thatdepend onexportsof manufactured benefit the debtor country. New money has two goods tend to show improvements in efficiency effects: it penalizes potential free riders (the new and show less decline in investment following a money acts like a tax on their exposure), and it devaluation than do exporters of primary increases the amount of money available for debt goods. - reduction.41 Studies of the quality of published trade statis- Research on future prospects for external fi- tics have led to serious questioning of the useful- nancing in the Sub-Saharan African region finds ness of African trade statistics. Perhaps more that the bulk of that financing will come as official revealing, these studies have also raised serious development assistance (ODA). But the project questions about the prices that African countries also shows that the growth in ODA, even under pay for imports of iron and steel from industrial optimistic assumptions, is rot likely to be suffi- countries. This concern has led to the develop- cient to proviae external assistance consistent with ment of a research project to investigate the value per capita GDP growth. While policy measures in of preshipment inspection activities in Sub-Sa- recipient countries can add to the flow of private haran countries for lowering the unit cost of im- sources of external financing, including foreign ports and reducing capital flight and customs direct investment and c-pital reflows (the study avoidance. A pilot project in one country is sug- estimates that the stock of private capital held gesting that unit costs of capital import items can abroad by Africans is about $40 billion), these be reduced by as much as 30-40 percent by intro- private financing sources will remain relatively ducing preshipment inspection services. I small players. The conclusion: policy measures to Other research on trade statistics shows that a enhance the quality of ODA resources and the shift from the commonly used c.i.f. tariff valuation effectiveness of their use are crucial for Africa. 4 to an f.o.b. valuation by developing countries On the saving side, recent research confirms would substantially liberalize tariffs and remove that the most important way for government poli- a significant source of bias against trade among cies to boost national and domestic saving is to developing countries. The results of this study reduce the public sector deficit, usually through are being used in developing trade-reform pack- reform of state-owned enterprises, local govern- ages to be put in place with the Bank's assistance. ment finances, and the central government bud- Information generated by a study of nontariff get. Deficit reduction, in addition to having a barriers is being used by developing countries in direct impact on public saving, reduces inflation, the GAIT Uruguay Round negotiations. 3 Also improves economic stability, and encourages pri- extensively used by developing countries in the vate investment. Increasing the rate of private Round is the microcomputer-based software saving usually takes longer and depends also on 20 increasing the economy's growth rate since pri- particularlyevident when attempting to reach the vate saving is sensitive to the business cycle. 4 poor in underdeveloped rural sectors. Much more Most developing countries require a credible cost-effective are schemes that combine direct tar- and comprehensive program of public sector re- geting with some degree of self-selection by the form to restore macroeconomic balances. The poor - findings that are currently influencing forthcoming policy paper on taxation has cap- project and policy design in Brazil, Indonesia, and tured several important policy implications: a Nepal. Ongoing research is establishing the po- value-added tax is the tax instrument of choice for tential for self-selection using work requirements, developing countries; a broadening of tax bases asintheruralpublicworksschemesin Bangladesh, should accompany tax administration reforms; India, and elsewhere. Schemes of this sort are now and tax systems should not be used to further being considered in a number of countries in Sub- nonrevenue objectives. Saharan Africa and Latin America. Research will Land taxes have also been the topic of recent aim to establish guidelines for policy design and research. A study based on the experiences of evaluation.' Argentina, Bangladesh, and Uruguay drew five Research on Indonesia demonstrated that even conclusions. First, the land tax is not necessarily a program of rapid macroeconomic adjustment more efficient at raising revenue than other types can help rather than hinder poverty reduction of taxes. Second, most land tax systems have efforts. The keys to the Indonesian program's foundered because they could not be adminis- success were a heavy emphasis on rural income tered, especially those with progressive tax rates growth and a clear policy of protecting poverty- based on land holdings. Third, land taxes have oriented public expenditures during the adjust- not been effective in attaining nonrevenue goals. ment process, policies fully consistent with the Fourth, strong political support is necessary for a message of the 1990 WDR.' successful land tax. And fifth, the most likely future role for land taxation isin local government HumAN RESOURcEs. Work on the human capital financing or earmarked local projects. 4 aspects of development reflects links among the five elements of human resources: health, educa- PovEgrY REDUCTION AND FOOD SEcURrTY. The 1990 tion, nutrition, population, and women in devel- World Development Report provided a major focal opment (see box 11). point in fiscal 1990 for work on poverty, drawing Recent work on the public provision of voca- together past work and setting the priorities for tional education demonstrates that such training future research. can be made substantially more efficient and re- Research in fiscal 1990 showed that countries sponsive to unpredictable changes in labor mar- rarely have precise information on who is poor to ket demand by diversifying the delivery of train- target programs directly for the poor. This is ing services. Diversification can be achieved Box 11 Women in development The Bank's efforts to bringissues of women in development conceptual framework for analyzing WID policy issues. (WID) front and center are beginning to pay off in terms of The payoff to WID's early emphasis on operational ac- both operational impact and new research. In its early days tivities is evident in the production of four country WID the WID program launched a two-pronged attack designed strategy papers, three of which (Bangladesh, Kenya, and to place WID issues at the forefront of Bank thinking. In the Pakistan) have been published in red cover. On theresearch first instance WID staff worked with operational staff to side the conceptual base built into WID's first phase of develop better statistical pictures of women's conditions operation is now underpinning research for a major paper and contributions in developiEg countries and to create covering three critical areas: the consequences of women's greater awareness of and demand forinformationon women productivity for economic efficiency, family welfare, and in development issues among operational staff. Based on population trends; thedeterminantsof women'sproductiv- this new information, practical country-level approaches ity in the wagelabor force, as farmers, as entrepreneurs, and were developed for integrating women more firmly into the as casual laborers; the improvement of women's access to development picture. At the same time a series of parallel productivity-enhancing public services such as health, nu- research activities was launched, aimed at developing a trition, family planning, agricultural extension, and credit. 21 through direct contract financing by employers weremadeneutralwithrespecttogenderinKenya and by decentralizing authority to local institu- (rather than discriminating against girls, as they tions. These findings are shaping sectorand project currently do), additional resources would be work in Bangladesh,India, Madagascar, Mauritius, available for families, who now appear to invest and Zimbabwe. 4 more in private education for boys. Women's This theme of diversity also appears in findings increased cash income increases household on teacher training. Good teachers are the main- spendingon food and clothingbut reduces spend- stay of an effective educational system, but recent ing on alcohol and cigarettes. These preliminary research questions whether current teacher train- findings suggest some of the benefits from im- ing practices are the most cost-effective. Findings proving women's access to public services as a show that substituting additional general second- means of increasing women's cash income. 41 ary education for lengthy pedagogical training lowers teacher training costs and increases stu- FNANCIAL INTERMEDIATION. Research on banking dent learning. These findings have already in- systems and banking failures shows that macro- fluenced educational sector work related to teacher economic factors, while a precipitant of disrup- training in China and Zimbabwe. 4 tions and crises, are never the sole cause and Research on student learning is shaping policy seldom the primary cause of individual or system- and sector work in two ways. First, research on atic bank failures. Generally, banking failures can the determinants of learning achievement is fo- be attributed to inadequate supervision and cusing education operations on financing cost- regulation and to internal management deficien- effective inputs - learning materials, educated cies - that is, to inadequate capital, inadequate teachers, well-designed curricula, more instruc- risk assessment, poor loan quality, loan concen- tional time - while providing justification for tration or overexposure to single borrowers or avoiding less promising inputs. Second, the em- sectors, and ultimately, fraud. 4 phasis on measuring learning achievement is in- Rural credit has long been viewed as a major fluencing countries (such as Ghana, Pakistan, constraint to agricultural investment and produc- Philippines,Turkey, Indonesia, Malawi, Morocco, tivity. A study on rural credit markets and agri- Lesotho, Algeria, El Salvador, and Mozambique) cultural investment in four areas in China indi- to explore methods for undertaking national as- cates, however, that credit is not necessarily an sessments of achievement. In recent years, re- important constraint on agricultural production search components in education projects have andinvestmentof households. Morecritical seems doubled their emphasis on measuring learning to be input availability, which has a major impact outcomes. 13 on investment: where input supplies are limited, Good health is both a basic component of wel- additional credit is shifted to consumption or fare and a requisite for a productive labor force. nonagricultural production. Projects based on the Research on priorities fordisease control and health provision of agricultural credit need to determine promotion shows that governments and donors whether credit is a major constraint on agricul- must maintain efforts to improve the health of tural productivity and to consider the fungibility children and the poor. The unfinished agenda is of credit in projecting output gains. The method- long, and there is scope for the wider application ology developed in this study for estimating the of a number of cost-effective interventions for effect of credit on productivity is replicable and immunization, family planning, nutrition, and canbe used to assess the probable efficacy of credit high-risk pregnancies. On the growing burden of projects elsewhere.' adult ill-health, controlling tobacco use is among the most cost-effective measures to generate sub- NATuRAL RESOURcEs. Recent research on natural stantial health benefits." resources has focused on its interrelationships Research is under way to determine women's with other key policy areas. One such area is the use of public services (such as extension, credit, effect of adjustment and liberalization on com- education, health, piped water) and how this ac- modity prices and commodity exporters. For cess affects their participation and productivity in example, as liberalization and trade reform pro- various economic activities and how it affects ceed and economic activities shift from public to their children's welfare. Preliminary analysis private agents, private agents need access to the suggests that if public expenditures in education full range of market-based risk management in- 22 struments. But government regulations on ex- fication. Early work established clearly that a change rates, capital movements, or speculative well-diversified and flexible agricultural economy activity impede the development and use of such is the key to more stable rural incomes when instruments. In addition, opening economies ex- commodity prices are highly unstable. Work now poses producers and consumers to greater vari- being completed is building a base for specific ability in commodity prices, which leads directly operational recommendat3ons by assessing how to the issue of whether the government should do farmers in different ecological zones adjust to anything to stabilize commodity prices - and if changing economic, financial, and incentive con- so, what. For a country heavily dependent on ditions - and by exploring the responses of agri- primary commodity exports, there are interrela- cultural institutions (research, extension, credit, tionshipsbetween hedgingcommodity price risks marketing) to changes in demands from farmers and macroeconomic management. If terms-of- (see the earlier discussion of financial intennedia- trade shocks - from commodity exports or from tion). The emerging messages are these. Lending important commodity imports such as crude oil for agriculture should be broadly based, not com- - can be reduced through risk management, modity-specific, and it should focus on improving macroeconomic management becomes much farmers' ability to respond to changes in markets easier. " and technologies. 6 For many of the Bank's member countries, eco- nomic development is synonymous with agricul- BASIC INFRASTRUCTURE AND URBAN DEVELOPfEY. tural and natural resource development. But the Research is continuin. on user taxes for roads in development of agriculture and the optimal ex- Sub-Saharan Africa, on the reform of trucking in ploitation of natural resources depend critically Poland and Hungary, and on labor redundancy in on future paths of commodity prices. Although the transport sector.2 In urban development, re- we can neither eliminate nor accurately predict search projects are analyzing the sequencing of future commodity price changes, research is housing reform in Eastern Europe, the impact of showing that we can offset the effects of risk and structural adjustment on urban households, and uncertainty. Developing countries exposed to the impact of public investments on private in- primary commodity price risks and related ex- vestment. A major initiative is investigating the change rate risks can do much to manage these causes of the infrastructure crisis, work closely risksby using market-based financial instruments. tied to the preparation of strategy papers on infra- Such hedging of price risks - both short- and structure and urban management and develop- long-term - can be done by both producers and ment. Studies are also under way on issues of governments. Several long-standing research pricing urban services and managing urban hous- projects drew to a close in fiscal 1990. Recently ing. 47 completed work on commodity risk management The continuing flow of migrants to cities is is now yielding specific guidelines for countries pressuring already overworked urban infrastruc- dependent on commodity exports. The findings tures. How can the Bank convince member coun- from recently completed studies of commodity tries that the neglect of urban infrastructure costs price, exchange rate, and interest rate risks in much in efficiency and growth? Research in the Costa Rica and Papua New Guinea are already Infrastructure and Urban Development Depart- being incorporated in similar projects in other ment hi s developed a methodology for quantify- countries. " ing the losses to business and the economy from Bank research is also yielding recommenda- deficiencies in urban infrastructure. Knowing the tions on another key area of risk management: numbers is essential for setting priorities in times cropdiversification. Thefrontline for research on of tight public budgets. Applied to Nigeria, this agricultural diversification is Asia. With produc- method showed that firms incur very heavy co.ts tion concentrated in rice, policymakers in Asia are as they try to compensate for inadequacies in interested in the costs and benefits of more di- publicly provided infrastructure. Moreover, the versified crop production systems, especially in burden of failing infrastructure falls more heavily how to move from specialized to diversified agri- on smaller firms that are less able and less willing cultural systems. Researchers are looking at the to pay for reliable services. These findings have effects of diversification on rural incomes and the been incorporated in a recent Nigeria Industrial ways for governments to encourage crop diversi- Sector Report and are beginning to influence the 23 policy debate more generally.o4 Dissemination and outreach The developing world is increasingly driven by the need for cost recovery. When possible, it The Bank's researchers communicate with their makes sense from the standpoint of equity and audiences - in the Bank, in developing countries, efficiency to charge those who benefit from ser- in academic institutions, and in the general public vices. But pricing is more problematic for some - through a variety of mechanisms. Publications services, such as water and sanitation, than for are the most obvious -the Bank's journals, books, others. The Infrastructure and Urban Develop- policy papers, and the like. No less important are ment Department recently completed a project, the interactions at the many conferences and jointly funded by the UNDP, on users' willingness seminars on development economics, notably the to pay for rural water in Brazil, India, Pakistan, Annual World Bank Conference on Development Nigeria, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. Each country Economics each spring. Other mechanisms in- study showed that rural people's willingness to clude our program for building research capacity pay is strongly affected by the quality and lev-l of in Sub-Saharan Africa and the Visiting Research services being offered, by the alternatives avail- Fellow Program. able to publicly provided water, and by the char- acteristics of the recipient households. In most PUBUCATIONS. At last year's Board discussion on cases, relatively high levels of service were called theannual research report,concern was expressed for - yard taps, for example - and much higher aboutdelays inissuing the Economic Reviewand the levels of cost recovery were achievable than had Research Observer. Under the guidance of a new been thought. In contrast, urban households were editor, productionbacklogs that had accumulated unwilling to pay for elaborate sewage systems, for the Research Observer were eliminated by the indicating satisfaction with simple on-site sewage end of the fiscal year, and those f-r the Economic disposal systems. These findings are influencing Review were reduced considerably. Both journals water and sanitation project design in Brazil, nowhaveextendedpipelinesofarticlesapproved Ghana, India, and Nigeria. " by the journals' editorial boards. These pipelines A long and fruitful history of research docu- will make it easier to strengthen the mix of articles ments the costs to renters and owners fromdistor- in each issue - and to come out with special tions introduced into the urban housing market issues, such as the Economic Review issue on pov- by rent control and other urban land and housing erty planned for May 1991. The two journals are regulations. Applications of methods developed now well established, with 5,700 subscribers to through this research - to Korea, Malaysia, and the Observer and 13,000 to the Review. During fis- Thailand - indicate that aggregate annual costs cal 1991, the role and distribution of the journals to these economies of such overregulation can run will be examined to see how they can be further to 3 percent of GNP. This work is finding new improved. value in several missions to Bulgaria, Czechoslo- Bank researchers were also prolific publishers vakia, Hungary, and Poland led by the Infrastruc- during the fiscal year through other outlets, in- ture and Urban Development Department. Re- cluding 44 articles in other leading journals, 15 lated research on housing finance is showing how books, 51 technical and discussion papers, and correctly designed mortgage instruments can more than 300 working papers and discussion substitute for government subsidies in the hous- papers (see appendix 6). The country and synthe- ing market, reducing the drain on government sis volumes for the comparative study on trade coffers, adding to the mobilization of financial liberalization came out in 1990, as did a summary resources, and increasing the affordability of piece for policymakers and operational staff. Most housing. 48 of the country volumes for the comparative study Findings on international freight costs contra- on agricultural pricing policies are now also pub- dict the popular belief that Caribbean exporters lished, with the synthesis volume set for release in pay higher shipping freight costs than necessary. fiscal 1991. This information was an important input into The Policy and Research Series moved into its policy discussion in the countries involved and second year with nine issues on such topics as led to cancellation of a multi-million-dollar study competition policies, industrial restructuring,and on the need for investment in ports and other agricultural diversification. The PRE Working shipping infrastructure in the region. 4 Paper Series, now in its third year and heading 24 toward number 600 - with 230 papers published The conferences bring together Bank staff, outside during fiscal 1990 - continues to release quickly researchers, policymakers, and development the findings of work in progress, to other research- practitioners to focus on issues chosen for their ersand staff in the Operations complex. The Policy topical relevance, potential, and the need for new Research Bulletin, successor to Research News, was work in the area. The conferences signal academic launched in January 1990 to provide the policy and policy communities in member countries that research and development community with up- the Bank is willing to listen to them in its attempts to-date information on the Bank's research pro- to find innovative solutions to conceptual and gram. Distributed to 21,000 researchers, policy- practical problems facing developing countries. makers, and business people, the Bulletin s circu- Discussions at the conferences are intended to lation is three times that of the old Research News, inform the Bank's own policy and operational informing readers not just of research findingsbut work and to enable it to maintain a leading role in also of new research starts, conference proceed- development policy analysis and formulation. ings, and recent publications. In addition, each Managed by the Research Administrator's office, department produces its own papers and news- the conference series also has the important objec- letters (see box 12). tive of interacting with developing country schol- ars who are invited to the conference. Conference ANNUAL WORLD BANK CoNFERENCE ON DEVELoPMErr papers are published in the Proceedings of the An- EcoNoNucs. The World Bank started the series of nual Conference on Development Economics, issued annual conferences on development economics in as a special joint supplement to the World Bank 1989 to provide a forum for discussion and debate Economic Review and the World Bank Research Ob- ofdifferentapproachestoeconomicdevelopment. server. The proceedings are distributed free to all Box 12 Departmental publications Several Bank departments and divisions produce their own Water and Sanitation Report Series papers and newsletters to disseminate research to special- Water and Sanitation Discussion Paper Series ized audiences. The following is a partial list of series that Water and Sanitation Update are issued r'-gularly. INUWS Feedback (N) Water and Sanitation Publications Catalog Country Economics Department (CEQ Transition (N) Industry and Energy Department (IEN) Trade Expansion Program Country Reports IEN Working Papers, Energy Series and Industry Series Trade Expansion Program Occasional Papers Energy Views and News (N) MADIA Discussion Papers Industrial Frontiers (N) Economic Development Institute (EDI) Population and Human Resources Department (PHR) EDI Review (N) New and Noteworthy in Nutrition EDI Working Paper Series PHREE Background Paper Series PHN Notes Agriculture and Rural Development Department (AGR) New and Noteworthy in Health (N) Agricultural Horizons (N) New and Noteworthy in Population (N) LSMS Notes Environment Department (ENV) LSMS Working Papers Environment Bulletin (N) Safe Motherhood News (N) Environment Department Working Papers Environment Department Division Papers Latin America Region (LAO Views of LATHR (N) Infrastructure and Urban Development Department (INU) Views from ... (occasional summaries of papers from INU Reports other organizations) Infrastructure Notes LAT Connection (N): Newsletter 25 developing-country subscribers to either of the expenditures in development. Authors will sur- two journals, thereby considerably expanding the vey each field, provide insights on the major policy reach of the annual conferences. concerns for the Bank and its member countries, The Annual World Bank Conference on Devel- and guide thinking on the research needed to opment Economics for 1990 was held at the end of improve our understanding of these issues. April. The keynote address was by Vaclav Klaus, finance minister of Czechoslovakia, who spoke RESEARCH CAPACRY iN SUB-SAHARAN AmcA. Peer about the unfolding transition to market econo- review and scholarly debate are the time-honored mies in Eastern Europe. Klaus delineated the fine mechanisms researchers use to test the validity of line that economic policy measures have to tread their research, to communicate their findings, and in managing this transition and anticipated the to shed new and often unexpected light on the complex problems that lie ahead in the move to a problems under scrutiny. These processes take market economy. The speech was widely re- place spontaneously when a critical mass of schol- ported in the media and in several Bank publica- arship is already in place, but they need to be tions. carefully fostered when research capacities are The four topics discussed at the 1990 Confer- still fragile and scholarship is dispersed as is the ence dealt with appropriate policy responses for case throughout much of Sub-Saharan Africa. moving from stabilization to growth, sustainable Against this background the Bank has pur- development and the environment, the role of sued an active program of capacity-building in population growth in development, and a reex- Africa. As previous annual research reports have amination of project evaluation. Outside scholars noted, the Bank, through a contribution from the and Bank researchers presented 10 papers to an RSB, was a founding member of the African Eco- audience comprising Bank staff and more than 50 nomic Research Consortium (AERC), one of the invited participants from outside the Bank. The most successful capacity-building efforts now Conference ended with a roundtable discussion under way in Sub-Saharan Africa. It has also on "Development Strategies: The Roles of the underwritten a smaller parallel effort in West State and the Private Sector," in anticipation of the Africa to develop research capacity in francophone review of development economics that will be the countries (the Network on Industrial Policies and subject of the World Development Report 1991. Sectoral Incentives in Francophone Africa located The conference series has been well received in in Dakar). The Research Committee approved a the Bank and in the research and policy communi- second grant to the AERC to solidify its position as ties. A measure of its impact is the influential role a leader in the African economic research commu- some of the papers are beginning to play in nity and to allow for continued expansion of its mainstream Bank work. For example, the paper activities. The AERC and the francophone net- by James A. Mirrlees and Ian D. Little on "Project work were originally supported by the Research Appraisal and Planning: Twenty Years On" has Committee to demonstrate how the development become widely regarded as the authoritative re- of a professional environment for research in Af- examination of the field and of Bank practice in rica could yield high payoffs through improved this important area. In conjunction with other policy research outputs. These activities are ex- internal reviews already under way on this topic, pected to feed into the Bank's larger capacity- this effort is likely to lead to a systematic revision building efforts through the Africa Region's Afri- of the Bank's project evaluation guidelines, its can Capacity Building Initiative. implementation procedures, and the intellectual The Bank's interest in fostering economic re- climate for project analysis in the Bank. search capacity in Africa also led a working group The third annual conference will be held in sponsored by DEC and AFR to propose a series of April 1991. The themes chosen for the conference research conferences in Africa to assist African again span a broad array of policy issues relating research capacity-building through professional to development, some of direct operational rel- interactionandpeerreviewoftheworkofthebest evance to the Bank and some anticipating new or African scholars. These conferences also provide emerging concerns for development policy. The a mechanism to disseminate recent Bank research 1991 themes are: urbanization, the outlook for on Africa and to foster more effective collabora- transition in socialist economies, the role of gover- 'ion between Bank staff and African researchers. nance in development, and the role of military The first conference dealt with general African 26 Box 13 The Africa economic issues conference With major funding from the Research Support Budget, a of networking and professional interaction outside the con- conference on African economic issues was organized in ference sessions, a part of the value added of the conference. June 1990 in Nairobi. To maximize its impact and African Selected papers from the conference will be published as a attendance, the conference was planned back-to-back with proceedings volume. the semi-annual meeting of the Africa Economic Research Participants at the Nairobi conference endorsed the idea Consortium and the meetings of the West Africa Economic of a follow-on conference in 1992 to be jointly sponsored by Association and the Eastern and Southern Africa Economic the two African Economic Associations and the World Association in Nairobi. As a result of this arrangement, 52 Bank. The second conference will differ from the Nairobi African researchers from both anglophone and francophone conference in that it will have more diversified funding and Africaattendedtheconference,in addition to l6participants much laiger organizational inputs from the African Asso- from OECD countries and 34 Bank staff members. ciations. The Research Committee has already provided the Of the 23 conference papers, Bank staff presented 10, seed money to start preparations for the second conference. African researchers seven, and OECD authors six. The The medium-term goal is to make this a stand-alone discussions focused on questions of methodology, policy biennial research conference that would be primarily or- relevance, data quality, and the political economy implica- ganized by the two African associations through funds they tionsof theissuesbeingdiscussed. There wasmuch evidence raise from bilateral and international aid donors. economic issues, and the second will deal with the sectoral briefings, and in most instances either external financing needs of Africa in the 1990s (see collaborated on or developed research proposals box 13). in their areas of interest and expertise. As the program has become better known in the VisrrmNc RESEARCH FELLOW PRoCIm. The Visiting Bank, the demand for visiting fellows has in- Research Fellow Program, funded by the Research creased, and the Research Committee is moving to Support Budget, brings eminent outside scholars a more competitive selection process in fiscal 1991. to Bank divisions for three to six months. The The new procedures will permit better advance objective is to provide visiting fellows with an planning by nominating divisions, and will allow opportunity to gain first-hand knowledge and the cormmittee to balance selection criteria, includ- experience of the Bank's operational, policy, and ing such considerations as the applicant's poten- research work and to give them access to the rich tial contribution to research and policy work, the stock of policy experience in the Bank. On the importance of the proposed work program to other side of the equation, Bank divisions in PRE, research priorities, and the expected complemen- Operations, and the other complexes benefit from tarity with the sponsoring division's work pro- the insights and expertise of visiting research fel- gram. lows, who serve as independent sources of review and advice, particularly on research activities. Evaluation of completed research The goal of the program is to deepen and broaden development research, both in the Bank and in the During fiscal 1990 the Research Administrator's outside policy and research communities. office embarked on the evaluation of completed During fiscal 1990, the Bank hosted 13 research projects funded by the central Research Support fellows, nine in PRE and six in the Operations Budget. The initial focus of the exercise is on the complex. These fellows focused on a variety of backlog of completed projects. It is expected that areas, in,luding the political economy of struc- this process will be completed during fiscal 1991. tural adjustment (Stephan Haggard), the impor- Ultimately, project success has to be assessed in tance of nontariff barriers in trade agreements terms of its influence on Bank policy and imple- (Kala Krishna), poverty alleviation and income mentation procedures and its contributions to the distribution issues in the context of structural development policy community at large. Success adjustment (Franqois Bourguignon), and urban atthislevelisdifficulttomeasure. Butasubstantive land and management problems in Sub-Saharan and administrative evaluation - and an assess- Africa (A.L. Mabogunje). Fellows actively partici- ment of what research questions were asked, how, pated in seminars, policy review meetings, and and with what success - can provide helpful 27 indicators of the broader achievements of the ment and growth, and poverty and income distri- project. The current procedures call for grouping bution. Other themes to be addressed relate to projects by themes, with each theme reviewed by industry studies, public -conomics, international an eminent outside expert. Reviewers are af- trade, international fin ace, labor markets and forded an opportunity to visit the Bank to discuss employment, agriculture and rural development, the report and to gain a better understanding of and population and health. Inaddition, two of the current work in their particular area of research. four comparative studies and the project on man- External reviews are under way on four themes: aging agricultural development in Africa (MADIA) education, infrastructure, macroeconomic adjust- are scheduled for evaluation this fiscal year. 28 Part III The Bank's research strategy for the early 1990s After a decade of adjustment a new set of concerns ority areas, and the various departmental work is shaping the Bank's research strategy: therevival programs for fuller statements). But departments of long-run growth, the alleviation of poverty, and regions also face issues and problems specific and the protection of the environment. The ac- to their areas of responsibility. The remainder of companying volume of abstracts for research this section gives, for each PRE department and projects now in progress or completed in fiscal each region, a sense of the specific concerns that 1990 gives a picture of the research program's will guide their research in the 1990s. evo!ution in recent years. It does not, however, tell us about the future, about the evolving pri- PRE priorities orities of Bank departments and the adjustments to the research program being made to accom- AGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMwr. AGR's re- modate them. We begin this section by describing search strategy for agriculture and rural develop- how each PRE department is setting its course for ment takes asitsstartingpoint therecognition that the first part of the 1990s - and move on to the many of the most pressing issues are outside research priorities for each of the Bank's regions. economics and in the realm of technology - and The overarching goal of the Bank's research and more than that, at the nexus of several disciplines. operations is to reduce poverty. To achieve this One major thrust is therefore in influencing tech- goal, the institution is directing its research and nological change. AGR staff will continue to policy work to understanding more about what is conduct research on economic issues, where we needed to improve nutrition, reduce sickness, raise know the problems and where we know how to life expectancy, and increase the access to educa- bring our findings to the policy table. But we will tion - and about what is needed to boost the rate also do more in technology assessments - to of economic growth and ensure that develop- draw lessons about the process of technological mental policies and practices are socially, politi- change, to bolster the technical packages in in- cally, and environmentally sustainable. vestment projects, and to strengthen the policy In meeting this goal the need for additional dialogue with national authorities. In addition, research is greatest in the four program areas - AGR will continue to be a catalyst in influencing the environment, private sector development, theresearchagenda in the Bank and the world. An human resources, debt and adjustment - which, example is our contribution to establishing a along with poverty reduction, now make up the mechanism for technical research by the Interna- Bank's areas of special emphasis for its programs. tional Program for Research on Irrigation and The Bank will continue to produce research in Drainage. (Irrigation and drainage techniques these priority areas on a broad front (see table 4.1 have changed little since the early 20th century, in appendix 4 for RSB-supported research in pri- except fordripirrigation, whichhas vastlydifferent 29 factor proportions.) In addition to this catalytic and the transport and communications infra- role, AGR will continue to conduct research on structure to move goods to markets and speed issues that are central to keeping our staff at the transactions. forefront of agricultural technology. The multidisciplinary side of the Bank's re- INFRASRUCTURE AND URBAN DEVELOPMENT. The re- search on agriculture and natural resources is search strategy for infrasti ucture is driven by the newer, more complicated, and less tractable than assessment that government responses to the in- subsectoral work. In several key development creasing demand for infrastructure services have areas the Bank is the principal player rather than been inadequate - and that these inadequacies a catalyst, for example, in land, water, and fisher- seriously constrain productivity growth, not only ies resource management. We have begun to in the low-income countries of Africa but in Latin tackle these areas, especially the difficult issue of America and the fast-growing Asian countries. designing a research strategy comprehensive Deteriorating services, inefficient public enter- enough to give solid guidance to our colleagues in prises and institutions, and overregulated mar- operations and to policymakers and practitioners kets for water, housing, transport, and waste dis- in developing countries. The issues go far beyond posal dictate three priority areas for our analytical engineering aspects, and in13 public sector man- work. The first is on the fiscal, financial, and real agement and the larger issue of governance. sector links between urban economics and macroeconomic performance. The second is on INDuSRy AND ENERGY. The research strategy for the political, institutional, regulatory, and finan- energy, like that for natural resources, is moving cial constraints to productivity. The third is on beyond engineering issues to questions of gover- what individual policy changes mean for the nance. What happens when governments no productivity of firms and households, for the longer manage the enterprises that run utilities welfare of the poor, and for the environment. and large manufacturing operations? Do these * The urban economy and macroeconomic aggre- enterprises face the right incentives and the right gates. The performance of the urban economy can regulatory framework? What should the new significantly affect not only economic growth but rules be, and what are the best ways of putting the also macroeconomic stability. Research will focus new rules in place? It is on these issues - issues on urban infrastructure investment and its con- of revising the social contract among governments, tribution to growth, on the role of housing finance enterprises, and consumers - that IEN is direct- in macroeconomic stabilityin the short run and its ing its efforts. Part of this involves reviewing the potential contribution to saving and resource situation today - to show how things are not mobilization in the long run, and on local gov- working. And part involves providing guidelines ernment finance and its contribution to the fiscal for puttingin place mechanisms for making tough performance of the national government. decisions and for ensuring public accountability. Thereisalsoaneed to understand thefunctioning At the core, however, is the need to develop capi- of large cities as the interactions among different tal markets that will allow private ownership of agents (households, firms, and public agencies) public utilities when and where suchownership is become more complex and the probable impacts seen as the key to establishing a competitive envi- of policy interventions more difficult to predict. ronment to promote efficiency. Research will focus on the internal efficiencies of The research strategy for industry embraces the cities on a variety of levels, such as the functioning issues of privatization, capital market develop- of urban markets, and on regulatory and institu- ment, and competition policy, but it extends to the tional constraints, and on the impact of public overriding question of competing in the global infrastructure and private investments on urban marketplace. Globalization is a fact of life in growth patterns and residential and employment manufacturing today. Thepaceof technical change location. is accelerating, and the international division of * Constraints to productivity. The maintenance labor is changing rapidly. To help countries and delivery of urban services are seriously con- compete in this environment, we will address the strained by national and local governments' lack importance of foreign private investment in the of financial resources. New areas of research will transfer of technology, the development of do- examine local government participation in finan- mestic capital markets to accommodate the needs cial markets, deregulation and private sector of firms for working capital and foreign exchange, participation in the supply of infrastructure ser- 30 vices, and the complementarity between public increasing people's productivity, and in the short and private investments. run, by directly addressing some of the major * Firms and households, the poor, and the environ- consequences of poverty: hunger, disease, and ment. The efficient functioning of urban markets premature death. and the productivity of individual households The first concentration - poverty assessment and firms are affected by the political structure, and impact - relies on the analysis of household the institutional arrangements, and the locus of data to gauge the effects of economic policies on decision-making within the structure. A better the poor. Understanding the causes and conse- understanding of the tensions within the existing quences of poverty is key to formulating strate- structure will improve prospects for achieving gies for poverty reduction, especially as they broad-based institutional reforms. An immediate concern effects on demand for social services. research task is to develop such a framework for PHR staff will examine household behavior institutional reform in Eastern Europe. changes in human resource consumption and in- On the urban poor and the informal sector: vestment in response to economic policy changes. Limited urban services and amenities in the infor- This knowledge will permit the design and vali- mal sector constrain the productivity of low-in- dation of policies that benefit the poor, and the come urban-dwelling families. Research will introduction of these into the Falicy dialogue of identify ways of mitigating the constraints to im- structural adjustment programs. Our focus will prove the productivity of the poor and assess be on enabling more countries to use the Living alternative approaches to the delivery of basic Standards Measurement Survey (LSMS) meth- services. A more challenging task is to understand odology to assess and predict the effects of policies the contributions of community-based productive on the poor. activities. Poverty alleviation depends not only on the On the urban env.ironment: The high density of development of human resources but also on their economic activity in cities generates positive ex- productive use in an increasingly complex and ternalities. But it also generates negative exter- competitive world economy. This requires better nalities, such as traffic congestion and pollution, understanding of how labor markets function in whichseriouslyaffect thehealthand productivity using human resources, and more efficient in- of urban dwellers. Little is known about the vestments in education and training. We will also balance between these two outcomes,and research increase ourattention to thecontributionsof higher on improved zoning and on pollution and con- educationtoeconomicand social development, to gestion taxes will help elucidate the linkages, training labor for technology-intensive invest- ments, and tobuildingapplied research and policy POPULATION AND HUMAN RESOURCEs. The research analysis capabilities. While efforts are under way strategy for population and human resources in to ensure good primary education and health for the l990s has three main thrusts. The first concerns ever-larger portions of the population, attention the assessment of povertyand the impact of policy must also be given to the role of secondary and on household consumption and human resource tertiary investments in increasing human pro- investments. The second is on human resources ductivity. Toward these ends, we will emphasize and economic productivity, with special attention research on improving instruction in science and to women's economic productivity and to the technology-and thequalityof highereducation. formation and use of skills. The third is on the To improve women's economic productivity, management of human resource development - PHR is launching a research program with three especially economic management but also tech- components. The first is on the consequences of nical and institutional management. These em- improvements in women's productivity for ecco phases relate to the second of the two-pronged nomic efficiency, family welfare, and population attack on poverty articulated in World Develop- trends - the household economic model with ment Report 1990: the development of human re- broader macroeconomic and environmental im- sources to enable people to take advantage of plications. The second is on the determinants of expanded economic opportunities to use their women's productivity in the wage labor force, as labor productively. Improving the delivery of farmers, as entrepreneurs, and in the informal health, education, family planning, and nutrition sector. The third is on how to improve women's services to the poor is one of the most powerful access to the "determinants" - to education, ways to reduce poverty - both in the long run, by health, nutrition, family planning, agricultural 31 extension, credit, and labor markets. We are also development. planning more research on the influences on Good management must increasingly concern women's labor force participation and earnings, accountability, through the better tracking of out- what influences poor women entrepreneurs' comes - a- d equity, by reducing the constraints earnings, and how to educate girls in difficult on demand by females and the poor. We need to environments. get a handle on how to manage human resource PHR will support new analysis on the effects of development within the political economy, in in- high fertility on household income and expendi- stitutionally weak sectors (education, health) and tures, probing whether reductions in fertility are in institutionally weakcountries (much of Africa). directly related to improvementsin family income This involves policy issues in managing change, and well-being. We plan work also on the envi- processes for making institutions cost-effective, ronmental consequences of rapid population strategies for building consensus, and information growth, including the macroeconomic implica- and evaluation systems. tions of this relationship. Expanding the evidence on interactions across Improving the technical, economic, and orga- the social sectors will enable more informed deci- nizational management of human resources is the sions about spending on human capital. Studying principal means of ensuring that resources for the human resource sectors together also permits human capital development are used effectively, attention to the aggregate effects of the ability to efficiently, and equitably. Better economic man- pay for services and the effects of service quality agement of human resources hinges on the ability on demand. Moreover, an integrated framework to mobilize and allocate resources and to manage for research will prompt interaction among sectors economic incentives that affect the supply of, and and result in a more cohesive foundation for policy demand for, social services. We need to under- dialogue. stand better the impact of prices and other factors on demand and the influence of demand on the ENviRoNmENr. The overriding priority for the quality of services provided, and vice-versa. We Bank's work on the environment is to encourage also need to consider social returns to human the integration of environmental strategy into our capital investments and, hence, demand at the activities - and to strengthen research on the macro level. Of related concern are the effects of underlying causes of environmental degradation social investments on the labor force. Work on and the feasibility of appropriate policy inter- these cross-cutting issues in the economic man- ventions. Because of the need for quick action in agement of social sectors will be a focus of our supporting operational work, the Environment efforts in fiscal 1992 and beyond. Department has focused on highlyrelevantapplied Better technical and organizational management research in five areas: destruction of natural is linked to capacity to improve the quality of habitats, land degradation, degradation and service delivery. This implies greater internal depletion of fresh water resources, urban, indus- efficiency-morecost-effectivemixesof resources trial and agricultural pollution, and the degrada- to improve health, education, nutrition, and con- tion of the global commons. traceptive practice, for example - and the orga- The emphasis has been on the application of nizational capacity for managing it. Much of our basic economic principles to operations. With work has focused on sector-specific knowledge operational work increasingly on track, ENV is and practice, such as Improving Primary Education refining it, :hinking and deepening its research, in Developing Countries (Washington, D.C.: The mainly on public policy issues (see the discussion World Bank, forthcoming). The concern has been in part II). With environmental action plans now with issues of quality and effectiveness: what mandatory, we will work more on cost-benefit inputs, structures, and processes are most cost- analysis that incorporates global externalities. effective for a sector or subsector? Although a Another line of research will investigate the links greatdeal is known about what inputsare needed, amongpoverty, population, and the environment. especially at the primary levels of schooling and health care, substantial work remains on the COUNTRY ECONOMIcs. The Bank's research on measurement of effects or outcomes within sectors. country economics addresses macroeconomic and Knowledge is also needed about the cross-sectoral cross-sectoral issues rather than specific sectoral areas where investments are linked in important issues. It also covers such cross-cutting issues as ways,producingbeneficialexternalitiesforhuman poverty, private sector development, environ- 32 mental protection, and political economy. CEC's ternational agencies with guidelines for possible research covers all developing economies, with international negotiations. special attention given toSub-Saharan Africa. Our "Sustainability" has numerous dimensions - strategy for country economics in the 1990s is economic and noneconomic. Among the eco- embodied in the changes being set in motion this nomic issues are local sustainability, country sus- fiscal year: tainability, and global sustainability. Discussions * From adjustment to long-term growth. Much of with operational colleagues suggest that we may the Bank's operational and research concern in the need to develop the tools and methods to define 1980s was with facilitating adjustment to external betterandmakeoperationaltheeconomictradeoffs shocks in the short and medium run. Although behind this concept. shocks remain a major issue, the question for the * Poverty reduction. Given the agenda in World 1990sishowtogeneratebetterlong-rungrowthin Development Report 1990, CEC is initiating re- stagnatinganddecliningeconomies. New research search on the impact of tax policy and public is thus under wayon thedeterminantsof long-run spending on the poor, particularly through tar- growth and on institutional development in the geted spending programs. And with labor mar- public and private sectors, especially those that kets and employment as major determinants of mobilize private savings and support efficient the returns to labor - the main asset of the poor - investment. As part of this focus on long-run - we will resume research on labor market and growth, we are also addressing ways of making employmentquestions,researchlargely neglected the concept of environmentally sustainable growth since the Bank's reorganization in 1987. a part of Bank operations. * Reforms in socialist economies. In addition to * Private sector development. Our efforts in in- policy issues, the far-reaching reforms in Eastern stitutional development have in the past centered Europe raise a host of fundamental research on making public institutions more effective. We questions. These questions, though applicable to are now building up our research on reforms that all countries,havespecialdirnensionsineconomies will support private sector development in such in transition. To explore these dimensions we are areas as deregulation, entrepreneurial develop- building up our research on price reform, enter- ment, private provision of public services, and the prise reform, and social safety nets, among other strengthening of private financial intermediaries. issues. All thisties in closely with the researchon industry, energy, infrastructure, and social services in the INrERNATIONAL ECONOMCS. IEC's research on in- Sector Policy and Research vice presidency. ternational economics takes a global perspective- * Environmentalprotection. Countrypolicieshave - on the long-term prospects for developing a significant effect on the environment through countries, on the management of debt, and on the their economywide incentives and disincentives. likely developments in major commodities mar- To understand these effects we are building up kets. The major coordinating vehicle for research research on the environmental impact of trade on international prospects is the ongoing work on and fiscal policy reforms. the long-term outlook, which will provide a focus Comparative case studies are examining the for deepening the research content of our fore- impact of various institutional arrangements on casting. environmental degradation. What, for example, One major area for research on international is the appropriate institutional and regulatory economics, like that on country economics, con- framework for forestry management in Indonesia cerns the determinants of long-run productivity and Thailand? Another project is investigating and economic growth - to find out more about the role of property rights ir protecting the envi- why somecountrieshavenotsharedin thebuoyant ronment. In addition, two research projects are world economy and about how investments in examining the potential impact on developing human and physical capital affect long-term countries and on energy markets of international growth. A second priority area will be the de- proposals to control greenhouse gas emissions. velopment of the next generation of global models And yet another project will review the use of needed toanalyzetheinteractionsand linksamong carbon taxes and permits to control emissions - developed and developing countries, with re- drawing implications for trade, industrial reloca- finements that will incorporate Eastern Europe's tion, and resource transfers across countries. The joining the world market economy. Exchange rate goal is to provide developing countries and in- and interest rate linkages to debt, growth, and the 33 balance of payments will be a focus of this model, are also devoting more effort to the nexus of which will also be useful for research planned on population, agriculture, and environment - to agricultural trade. And with the Uruguay Round understand betterhow to reverse the vicious circle coming to a close, we will continue to evaluate the of rapid population growth, slow agricultural multilateral trade agreements for their effect on growth, and deteriorating natural resources. And developing economies. A third priority area will on the social dimensions of adjustment, AFR is be to assess the effects of global commodity shocks, moving froi. nceptual development to putting like the 1990 oil shock, on individual economies systems in place - for more comprehensive sta- - and to evaluate the policy responses to those tistical data bases, for stronger policy analysis, shocks. and for better design and followup for the social Finally, international economics research will policies and poverty alleviation programs that explore the contribution of external finance to will be a part of future structural adjustment growth. The work will analyze why some coun- operations. Work on the government's role in tries are able to support much higher relative promoting the informal sector's development is levels of indebtedness than others and the causes also being launched. of private capital outflows and reflows. It will Although Sub-Saharan Africa has the highest attempt to isolate the impact of foreign savings, fertility rates of any major region, there are a few using techniques from the emerging literature on cases (Kenya and Zimbabwe) where fertility has exogenous growth. The research will also address begun to decline, and their lessons about fertility the attributes of alternative forms of external de- decline are proving useful for Africa asa whole. A velopment finance, including foreign direct in- major question about the Zimbabwean situation vestment, bond financing, collateralized instru- is how much the family planning program has mints and lpasing, and management of the risks stimulated declining fertility and howmuchof the associated with external finance. Much of the decline hasresulted fromfavorable socioeconomic existing literature ignores sovereign risk and has preconditions. This issue is being addressed by yet to take into account potentially useful research examining the current constraints on expanded findings from the corporate finance literature. contraceptive use and fertility decline and the Becauseroughly60percentofthefutureincrease extent to which the relative importance of these in hydrocarbon consumption will be in develop- constraints differs among socioeconomic groups ing countries, IEC will also investigate how and across regions." strategies to control greenhouse emissions will Under the Bank's Africa reseaich initiative - a affect the international prices for energy, the trade collaborative effort of the Africa region and the in energy-intensive commodities, and the growth Policy, Research, and External Affairs complex- of the global economy. Planned research will work is continuing on foreign exchange markets, assess the likely benefits and costs of improving adjustmentsto external shocks, the paceof reform, the efficiency of energy production, transforma- and the impact of wage and nonwage costs on tion, and use in the developing countries. It will manufacturing exports. New work is being also evaluate the effectiveness of various inter- launched on the experience with trade reform (for national funding mechanisms in preserving the which there is startlingly little quantitative docu- environment and influencing the substitution of mentation for Africa), on what regionalintegration alternative fuels. means for tr-de strategies, on the mobility of labor under adjustment, and on policies for export de- Regional priorities velopment. These efforts will help inform the program of regional studies on a range of sectors AHUcA. For the Bank's Africa region, the long- and themes- such as population, financial sector termperspectivestudy- Sub-SaharanAfica: From reform, the opportunities from regional integra- Crisis to Sustainable Growth (Washington, DC: The tion, efficient management of external finance, World Bank, 1989) - defines the research agenda and alternatives fordealing with debt difficulties. for the foreseeable future. 4 For some of the issues To support policy-focused research by Africans, identifiedby that three-yearstudy, work isalready AFR will continue to sponsor the work of the under way and will be strengthened. In popula- African Economic Research Consortium, a highly tion, we are studying the determinants of fertility successful collaborative effort to which the Bank to find out why it remains so high in Africa. We contributes (see box 13 on page 27). 34 ASIA. The focus of research for the Asia region has debt will affect potential investors' attitudes to- moved beyond the problems of measuring pov- ward foreign direct investment and other capital erty - for these are now well documented - to inflows. identifying the practical policy levers for improv- Another broad area of continuing inquiry is the ing the access of the poor to public services, es- environment, an issue that deeply affects welfare pecially for education and health. Exploratory throughout the region. Acknowledging that much work is under way in the Philippines to find out of the work on the environment is applying what what governments can do to reduce school dropout we already know, we see that our greatest concern rates and improve learning outcomes. These ef- in research may be finding the right mix of in- forts will serve as prototypes for similar work in centivesandregulationstoabateurban,industrial, India, where the problem is enormous - only 60 and agricultural pollution. And as part of the percent of urban boys are still in school after five rising conflict between resource use and sustain- years of primary education, and only 16 percent of able development, we are giving priority to water rural girls. The region will also study the determi- and its management. Much of the region is desert, nants of demand for health services - and the and put simply, the arid countries are running out links among epidemiological patterns, the fi- of water. EMENA research will explore ap- nancingofhealthservices,and theequity of access proaches for pricing and regulation that will to these services. The program of research in this translate theory into practical application. priority area will emerge from and complement the region's sector work. LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBFAN. Latin America's The region will also conduct a major study of the massive structural reforms and reassessments of links between poverty and population, analyzing the public sector are influencing the areas of in- how governments can best intervene. Also quiry for research in the region. Comparative planned is an in-depth analysis of data on public analysis of the size of governments, reform in civil servicesforhealth,education,andfamilyplanning. services, and fiscal decentralization will be im- And because the region has a mix of poor and portant areas of work. The region isalso drawing middle-income countries, research will delve into lessons from private sector responses to reform the policies for higher education - before these programs during the last years, particularly those policies become ossified. Finally, as part of the for trade. The possibility ofa free trade agreement Bankwide forestry initiative, the region will sup- between the United States and Mexico and other port a major effort to consolidate thinking on Latin American countries is driving research on environmental issues. As part of this effort, a how best to make the transition to a free trade area. visiting research fellow will start work in January The use of social investment funds associated 1991 to set out the research agenda for the first with adjustment operations has raised questions years of the decade. about the appropriate design of safety nets and the relative merits of employment programs and EUROPE, MIDDLE EAST, ANDNORH AFUCA. EMENA's of targeted interventions in the provision of social immediate research concern is not only the services. Studies of these questions will improve transformation of centrally planned economies the design of such projects by drawing lessons but their changing links with the Soviet Union in from experience. In the women in development this era of glasnost. Interest in this topic goes area, a study will assess the human capital char- beyond Eastern Europe to such countries as Iran acteristics and the labor market constraints that and Algeria, which have had long relationships inhibit women fromrealizingtheirfull productive with the Soviet Union and are in the first stages of potential. reform. The big research issues concern the For research on the environment, the region will transformation of enterprises - efforts to make be evaluating policies that reduce pollution public firms private, to restructure policies and through changes in relative prices and policies institutions, and above all to introduce competi- that regulate pollution through administrative tion. Alsoof corsiderableimportancearequestions controls. Work is starting on global environment about the evolving trading relationships - with issues in Latin America and the proper allocation the European Community, with the Soviet Union, of the costs of interventions between the country and with the other countries of the region and and the international community, work to be world -and the extent to which existing external carried out in cooperation with the research pro- 35 gram on the economics of global environment before the year is out. The Legal department is sponsored by PRE's Country Economics Depart- planning research on the effect of legal systems on ment. population growth, the status of women, and the compliance with and efficiency of laws and Other research regulations. The International Finance Corporation (IFC) will * * * continue its research focus on the opportunities for doing business and the mechanisms for pro- Thesedepartmental and regional research plans moting foreign investment in individual sectors add up to a challenging agenda driven by prob- in the developing countries. It will also explore lems that are technically complex and often po- patterns of corporate finance, the development of litically sensitive. Many of the underlying issues capital markets, and the transfer of technology in cut across divisional, departmental, and vice the context of intellectual property rights. In presidential boundaries, underscoring the need addition, the IFC will be studying what the tech- for effective management and coordination. To nological changes in industrial processes in the improve coordination within its own complex developed countries mean for the developing and to further coordination throughout the Bank, countries. The Finance complex has traditionally PRE is developing a new system that will act as a done little formal research, but it is now develop- clearing house and institutional focal point for ing a small, focused program. It expects to have cross-cutting issues. several proposals before the research committee 36 Endnotes 1. Land Titling Project (LTP); Agriculture 12. Zmarak Shalizi and Wayne Thirsk. 1990. OperationsDivision,CountryDepartment II, Asia "Tax Reform in Malawi." PRE Working Paper Regional Office. 493. World Bank, Country Economics Depart- 2. Land Title Security and Farm Productiv- ment, Washington, DC. ity: A Case Study of Thailand, Ref. No. 673-33. 13. ZmarakShalizi*hndLynSquire. 1989. Tax Supervisor: Gershon Feder, Agricultural Policies Policy in Sub-Saharan Africa* A Framework for Division, Agriculture and Rural Development Analysis. Policy and Research Series 2. Washing- Department. ton, DC: World Bank. 3. Extension of 1981 Structural Adjustment 14. Conference on Value Added Taxation in Loan. Developing Countries, Ref. No. 673-86. Supervi- 4. Second Land Titling Project; Agriculture sor: Gerardo Sicat, Economic Advisory Staff. Operations Division, Country Department II, Asia 15. Implications of Carbon Tax Schemes for Regional Office. Developing Countries, Ref. No. 676-10. Supervi- 5. Gershon Feder, T. Onchan, Y. sor: Anwar Shah, Public Economics Division, Chalamwong, and C. Hongladarom. 1988. Land Country Economics Department. Policies and Farm Productivity in Thailand. Balti- 16. To be completed in May 1991; Public Eco- more, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press. nomicsDivision,Country Economics Department. 6. Agricultural Policies Division, Agricul- 17. The Timing and Sequencing of a Trade ture and Rural Development Department. LiberalizationPolicy, Ref.No. 673-31. Supervisor: 7. Welfare and Human Resources Division, Armeane M. Choksi, Country Department I, Latin Population and Human Resources Department. America and the Caribbean Regional Office. 8. The Distribution of Welfare in C6te 18. Demetrios Papageorgiou, Michael d'Ivoire, Ref. No. 673-22. Supervisor: Jacques van Michaely, and Armeane M. Choksi, eds. 1990. der Gaag, Welfare and Human Resources Divi- Liberalizing Foreign Trade. Vols. 1-7. Oxford: Basil sion, Population and Human Resources Depart- Blackwell. ment. 19. In conjunction with the Second Export 9. Social Dimensions of Adjustment Unit, Development Loan (EDL-II) in 1984. Technical Department, Africa Regional Office. 20. Executed by the Trade Policy Division, 10. Lyn Squire. Forthcoming. Assistance Country Economics Department. Strategies to Reduce Poverty. World Bank Policy 21. Highway Design and Maintenance Stan- Study. Washington, DC: World Bank. dards Study, Ref. No. 670-27. Supervisor. Asif 11. David Newbery and Nicholas Stem, eds. Faiz, Transport Division, Infrastructure and Ur- 1987. The Theory of Taxation for Developing Coun- ban Development Department. tries. New York: Oxford University Press. 22. Clell C. Harral and Asif Faiz. 1988. Road 37 Deterioration in Developing Countries: Causes and sources Division, Population and Human Re- Remedies. World Bank Policy Study. Washington, sources Department, and Nancy Birdsall, Envi- DC: World Bank. ronment Division, Technical Department, Latin 23. Financed by thegovernmentof Brazil and America and the Caribbean Regional Office. the United Nations Environment Programme, ex- 35. Macroeconomic Adjustment and Growth ecuted in collaboration with GEIPOT (Empresa Division, Country Economics Department. Brasileira de Planejamento de Transportes) and 36. TradePolicyDivision,CountryEconomics the Texas Research and Development Founda- Department. tion. 37. Alexander J. Yeats. 1989. "On the Accu- 24. Executed by the Central Road Research racy of Economic Observations: Do Sub-Saharan Institute (CRRI-New Delhi). Trade Statistics Mean Anything?" PRE Working 25. In collaboration with the Transportation Paper 307; and "Do African Countries Pay More and Road Research Laboratory (TRRL). for Imports? Yes." PRE Working Paper 265. 26. For a more detailed discussion of the World Bank, International Economics Department, setting of research priorities see "Setting Research Washington, DC. Priorities at the World Bank," a note prepared by 38. Refik Erzan and Alexander Yeats. 1990. the staff of the Research Administrator's office, "Tariff Valuation Bases and Trade Among De- July 1990. veloping Countries ... Do Developing Countries 27. Jeffrey A. McNeely et. al. 1989. Conserv- Discriminate Against Their Own Trade?" PRE ing the World's Biological Diversity. Washington, Working Paper 371. World Bank, International DC: World Bank. Economics Department, Washington, DC. 28. John B. Doolette and William B. Magrath, 39. Samuel Laird and Alexander Yeats. 1990. eds. 1990. Watershed Development in Asia: Strate- "Trends in Nontariff Barriers of Developed Coun- gies and Technologies. World Bank Technical Paper tries, 1966-86." Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv 126(2). 127. Washington, DC: World Bank. 40. International Trade Division, Interna- 29. Colloquium on the Environment and tional Economics Department. Natural Disaster Management. June 27-28, 1990. 41. Debt and International Finance Division, Cosponsored by the Environmental Policy Re- International Economics Department. search Division, Environment Department, and 42. Public Economics Division, Country Eco- Human Resources Division, Economic Develop- nomics Department. ment Institute. 43. Education and Employment Division, 30. Economic Growth and Trade Policy in Population and Human Resources Department. Western Africa: Implications of the Degradation 44. Population, Health, and Nutrition Divi- of the Vegetation Cover, Ref. No. 675-33. Super- sion, Population and Human Resources Depart- visor: Ramon Lopez, Trade Policy Division, ment. Country Economics Department. 45. Women in Development Division, Popu- 31. Public Economics Division, Country Eco- lation and Human Resources Department. nomics Department. 46. International Commodity Markets Divi- 32. Transport Division, Infrastructure and sion, International Economics Department. Urban Development Department. 47. Water and Sanitation Division, Infra- 33. Public Sector Management and Private structure and Urban Development Department. Sector Development Division, Country Econom- 48. Urban Development Division, Infra- ics Department. structure and Urban Development Department. 34. The Role of the Private Sector in Provid- 49. For work in this and other regions, con- ing Social Services, Ref. No. 676-02. Supervisors: tact the relevant Regional Chief Economist's Of- Jacques van der Gaag, Welfare and Human Re- fice for details. 38 Appendices Appendix 1 Research at the World Bank causes of poverty, and working on the political economy of adjustment. Bank work distinguishes The term "research," in its broadest definition, itself from academic research in that it is dearly encompasses a wide spectrum of Bank activities. directed toward a recognized policy issue ina way Much economic and sector work - analytical that will eventually yield better policy advice. work to support operations - generates new When the Bank's research program was for- knowledge about member countries. Outside the malized in 1971, it had four basic goals: Bank, this work might well be seen as research. By * To supportall aspects of the Bank'soperations, convention, however, Bank research is defined including the assessmentof development progress more narrowly to include only analytical work in member countries. designed to produce results with relatively wide * Tobroadenunderstandingofthedevelopment applicability. Although clearly motivated by process. policy concerns, Bank research is usually driven * To improve the Bank's capacity to provide not by the immediate needs of a particular Bank advice to member countries. lending operation or a particular country or sector * To assist in developing indigenous research report - but by longer term concerns. Bank capacity in member countries. research is an investment that will add to our un- While these basic goals remain intact to this day, derstanding of development thereby improving they provide only broad guidelines for Bank re- the intellectual foundation for future lending op- searchers. Within these guidelines the Research erations and policy advice. In contrast, economic and Publications Policy Council (RPPC) chaired and sector work takes the product of research and by the Senior Vice President, PRE, sets priority adapts it to specific project or country settings. guidelinesforallBank-supportedresearch. RPPC Both activities are critical to thedesign of successful members are drawn from the ranks of Bank senior projects and effective policy. managers, mainly vice presidents. In its effort to expand our understanding of the Bank research is funded through two sources: develo-ment process, Bank research does not al- departmental resources, mainly staff time, and ways yield specific and immediate operational the Research Support Budget. The RSB also sup- advice or guidance. Work in this area tends to ports several activities that, while not properly focus on basic issues - for example, improving research projects, add to the value of Bank re- estimates of agricultural supply responses, in- seax ch and enhance the Bank's image as an intel- creasing understanding of labor markets in de- lectual leader in the field of development research. veloping countries, predicting the responses of The Annual Bank Conference on Development households and individuals to policy-induced Economics, the VisitingResearch Fellow Program, changes in their environment, studying the root and the Bank's research journals are examples. 39 The RSB is also the source of funding for the individual capacities but are selected to provide Bank's direct contributions to research capacity representation from throughout the Bank, espe- building in its member countries, providing sup- cially the Operations complex. The Committee's port for several research networks in Sub-Saharan main tasks are to ensure that RSB-funded research Africa and Latin America. serves institutional priorities as established by the Appendix 2 shows the current membership of President and the RPPC and is technically sound. the Research and Publications Policy Council and It does this through its own deliberations and by the Research Committee. Appendix 3 reproduces passing proposals through an anonymous review the Operational Directive governing the review of process which draws on experts in and outside the proposals submitted for RSB funding. Bank. Departmental inputs into Bank research are de- To be considered by the Committee, proposals termined initially by department directors and mustbe sponsored by a Bank department (the RSB their staff, and reviewed and revised through does not support free-standing external research) work program reviews at vice presidential and and are generally expected to be part of the senior vice presidential levels. Research projects department's larger research program. RSB funds that are funded only by departmental resources go mainly for the support of researchers outside make up about half of the Bank's overall research the Bank (the RSB cannot be used to support Bank program and take place mainly in the Policy, staff salaries) and departments,especially those in Research, and External Affairs complex. PRE, are expected to contribute staff time to RSB- The Research Support Budget (RSB) is a unique funded proposals. The RSB supports research effort on the part of Bank management to intro- managed in PRE, Operations, and Finance, Legal, duce flexibility, competitiveness, and openness and the IFC. Although all RSB-funded research into the research process. The RSBisadministered must be relevant to Bank operations, the Research by the Research Committee which is chaired by Committee is careful to ensure that these funds go the Bank's Chief Economist and Vice President, mainly for longer term research with relatively Development Economics. Members of the Re- broad implications for the institution. search Committee (see appendix 2) serve in their 40 Appendix 2 Research-related Bank committees Research and Publications Policy Council members The Research and Publications Policy Council (RPPQ is the Bank's policy-setting body for both research and publications. It is chaired by the Senior Vice President for Policy, Research, and External Affairs, with members drawn from senior managers throughout the Bank and the IFC. The RPPC establishes the broad agenda and makes recommendations for Bank research and publication activities. It meets twice a year, more often if necessary. Wilfried Thalwitz, Chairman Johannes Linn Senior Vice President, Policy, Research, and External Director, Country Economics Department Affairt Acting Vice President, Development Economics Dennis de Tray Guy Pfeffermann Research Administrator, Policy, Research, and External Director, Chief Economic Advisor Affairs (Research Secretariat) Economics Department (IFQ Ghassan El-Rifai Visvanathan Rajagopalan Vice President, Policy and Advisory Services (M.I.G.A.) Vice President, Sector Policy and Research James Feather Alexander Shakow Director, Publications, External Affairs Department Director, External Affairs (Publications Secretariat) Ibrahim F. I. Shihata Paul Isenman Vice President and General Counsel, Legal Department Director, Policy and Review Department Timothy T. Thahane Wilfried E. Kaffenberger Vice President and Secretary, Secretary's Department Vice President, Portfolio and Advisory Operations (IFC) Willi A. Waper:.ans Attila Karaosmanoglu Vice President, Europe, Middle East, and North Africa Vice President, Asia Regional Office Regional Office Robert Picciotto Joseph Wood Vice President, Corporate Planning and Budget Vice President, Financial Policy and Risk Management Research Committee members (as of December 1990) The Research Committee is made up of senior staff, usually division chiefs and department directors, drawn from throughout the Bank. It reviews proposals submitted for Research Support Budget funding to assess their technical standards and how well they serve institutional priorities. Dennis de Tray, Acting Chairman Vittorio Corbo Research Administrator, Policy, Research, and External Chief, Macroeconomic Adjustment and Growth Division, Affairs Country Economics Department Nancy Birdsall Jessica Einhom Chief, Environment Division, Technical Department, Latin Director, Financial Operations Department America and the Caribbean Regional Office Amnon Golan Wilfred Candler Director, Economic Development Institute Principal Evaluation Officer, Operations Evaluation Department Ravi Kanbur Editor, World Bank Research Observer and World Bank Anthony Churchill Economic Review Director, Industry and Energy Department Michel J. Petit Director, Agriculture and Rural Development Department 41 Inderjit Singh Sweder van Winbergen Principal Economist, Socialist Economies Reform Unit, Lead Economist, Country Operations Division (Mexico), Country Economics Department Country Department II, Latin Amtrica and the Caribbean Regional Office Lyn Squire Chief, Country Operations Division (Mexico), Country Oktay Yenal INartment II, Latin America and the Caribbean Regional Chief Economist, Office of the Regional Vice President, Asia Office Regional Office Everardus Stoutjesdijk Director, Risk Management and Financial Policy Department 42 Appendix 3 March 1989 THE WORLD BANK OPERATIONAL MANUAL OD 16.00 Operational Directive Page 1of 3 Procedures for Review of Research Proposals Introduction pro ,ess. The workshop should be scheduled when the basic approach, data sources, focus (global, institu- 1. This directive outlines the rules, procedures, tional, sector, or country) and methodology have been and responsibilities for the review of research propos- thought through, but before researchers are fully com- als by the Research Committee (hereinafter referred to mi:ted to a particular design. as the Committee). The Committee was established by the Research and PublicationsPolicy Council (RPPC) in Regional Coordination and Support January 1988. The functions, responsibilities and mem- bership of the RPPC and the Committee are set out in 4. Sponsoring departments should coordinate Annexes A and B, respectively. The Committee estab- studies involving specific countries or Regions with the lishes overall research priorities (set out in the Bank's appropriate Regional units in Operations. After the annual Reports on the World Bank's Research Pro- studies have been formally submitted to the Commit- gram), and evaluates and makes recommendations on tee, the Secretary will arrange for their review by the individual research proposals submitted for funding appropriate chief economist(s) to assess the extent of from the Research Support Budget. The Vice President, Regional support and commitment. Development Economics and Chief Economist, and the Research Administrator are ex-officio Committee Submissions of Research Proposals Chairman and Deputy Chairman, respectively. The other members are appointed by the Chairman of the 5. Proposals may be submitted at any time to the RPPC on the advice of RPPC members. Secretary of the Committee: (a) for proposals below $20,000, 5 copies should be submitted; (b) for those 2. The main objectives of the research proposal between $20,000 and $100,000, 15 copies; and (c) for review process are the following: those above$100,000,30 copies. Form 1699 (Request for Research Support Budget Funding) should be attached (a) to ensure that proposals conform to the re- to every proposal. The form is available upon request search priorities laid down by the Committee from the Committee's Secretary. under the guidance of the RPPC, and to place responsibility with line managers for the sub* Duration of Research Projects stance and operational relevance of the pro- posals; 6. The Committee will normally consider research projects with planned completion dates of within three (b) to ensure the technical quality of research pro- years. It will report exceptions to the RPPC. posals; and Research Preparation Funds (c) to expedite the research proposal review pro- cess. 7. The Committee will fund preparatory work on research proposals where necessary, but such funding Institutional Relevance of Proposals will not guarantee favorable consideration of the re- search proposal that follows. Acceptance of research 3. Line managers should consult widely within preparation funds constitutes an agreement on the part the Bank to ensure that research proposals have institu- of the sponsoring department to submit a research tional relevance and conform to the research priorities proposal to the Committee within six months. Deci- laid down by the Committee. Department directors sions on requests for research preparation funds are whose staff are planning to submit major research made by the Deputy Chairman who may consult other proposals are strongly encouraged to organize a work- Committee members before reaching a decision. shop to inform interested staff of these plans early in the 43 Appendix 3 (con't) THE WORLD BANK OPERATIONAL MANUAL Operational Directive Page 2 of 3 Review and Decision Procedures within one month of receiving the Committee's deci- sion memorandum. A final decision on the appeal will 8. Requests for funding from the Research Sup- normally be communicated to the sponsor within a port Budget are subject to the following procedures: month (two months for complex proposals). (a) For requests below $20,000, the Deputy Chair- Supplementary Funding man will decide. 13. Only under exceptional circumstances will the (b) For requests between $20,000 and $100,000, the Committee consider requests for supplementary fund- Deputy Chairman will decide, in consultation ing of work previously authorized in an ongoing re- with an ad hoc subcommittee which he ap- search project. Requests for supplementary funds to points, and with at least one reviewer outside finance research additional to that in the original pro- the Bank. He may also seek other internal posal will be subject to the same review and decision reviews from staff with relevant expertise. processes as new research proposals. (c) For requests above $100,000, the proposal will Closure of Projects and Completion Reports be reviewed by at least two external reviewers and, if necessary, other Bank staff with rel- 14. The Committee will close a project six months evantexpertise, and thenbyanad hoc subcom- after the authorized completion date (as shown in the mittee appointed by the Deputy Chairman. original proposal), unless the Committee agrees in The subcommittee will report on the proposal writing to a request for an extension for a specified to the full Committee, which will discuss it and period. Sponsors are required to file completion re- makea recommendation to the Chairman, who ports on their projects no later than the date of their will take the final decision. closure. Completion report forms are available upon request from the Committee's Secretary. 9. All reviewers, internal and external, will be anonymous. External reviewers will be chosen from an Quorum international roster maintained by the Committee. Before formal consideration of research proposals by 15. The Committee will have a quorum of at least the Committee or its subcommittees, the sponsors shall seven members. receive copies of all reviewers' reports, and may send written responses to the Secretary for submission to the Chairmanship Committee within seven days of receiving the reviews. 16. In the Chairman's absence, the Deputy Chair- 10. When a decision is made on a proposal, a man will act on his behalf. When the Deputy Chairman Committee memorandum outlining the basis for it will is absent, the Chairman will designate in writing an- be sent to the sponsors. A synopsis of decisions made other Committee member to act as Deputy Chairman. on all requests shall be circulated at regular intervals to When both are likely to be absent, the Chairman will, in the Committee and the RPPC. advance, designate in writing another Committee member to act as Chairman or Deputy Chairman, as Appeal and Resubmission Procedures circumstances require. 11. Decisions on requests for under $20,000 are Conflict of Interest final. Adversedecisions on requests for$20,000-$100,000 may be appealed, with documented justification to the 17. No Committee member with direct involve- full Committee, whose decision will be final. For ment or with a substantive interest in a proposal under funding requests above $100,000, appeals maybe made review shall be involved in any way in the review or to the Chairman of the RPPC. An appeal must be made decision process. Members of an ad hoc subcommittee 44 Appendix 3 (con't) THE WoRLD BANK OPmAnoNAL MANUA Operational Directive Page 3 of 3 set up to review a research proposal should not include chief economist's office. No person having any sub- staff fromthedepartment(s)oftheproposal'ssponsor(s), stantive interest or direct involvement in a proposal nor the chief economist(s) if the sponsor is from the shall be appointed as an internal or external reviewer. 45 Appendix 4 Table 4.1 Bank research in relation to other Bank analytical work and the administrative budget, FY 1987 to FY 1990 FY 1987 FY 1988al FY 19896/ FY 1990 Millions Percentage MUions Percentage Millions Percentage Millions Percentage of dollars of total of dollars of total of dollars of total of dollars of total Research 17.5 16.9 17.3 15.0 17.6 142 23.7 17.5 Economic and sector work 56.7 54.9 67.8 59.0 73.6 593 72.9 54.0 Policy work 29.1 28.2 29.9 26.0 32.9 26.5 38.4 28.5 Total analytical work 1033 100.0 115.0 100.0 124.1 100.0 134.9 100.0 Memo items: Research as a percentage of Bank administrative expenses 3.5 3.5 3.5 4.2 Research expenditure in constant 1990 dollars 19.8 19.2 19.0 23.7 a. All FY88 figures include prorated reorganization transition costs. b. FY89 research figures exclude the $2.2 million in funds approved but not committed during the fiscal year. Source: Planning and Budgeting Department. 46 Table 4.2 Resources devoted to research by department, FY 1990 Centrally approved projects Departmental studies Total research costs Research Support RSB and Budget Staff cost Total Staff cost Total staff cost total staff cost expenditure cost cost cost cost cost share of (thousands time (thousands (thousands time (thousands time (thousands (thousands total Departmient o dollars) (yam) of dollars) of dollars) (Yuars) of dollars) (Nars) of dollars) of dollars) (percent) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7= (2+5) 8= (3+6) 9= (8+1) Development Economics International Economics 288.0 3.7 464.8 752.8 20.0 2,547.8 23.7 3,012.6 3,300.6 14.2 Country Economics 1,3092 11.8 1,497.0 2,806.2 17.0 2,163.8 28.7 3,660.8 4,970.0 213 Research Administration 837.8 1.6 207.2 1,045.0 2.2 277.5 3.8 484.6 1,322A 5.7 DECVP 137.1 1.4 181.0 318.1 1.8 225.8 3.2 406.8 543.9 2.3 Subtotal 2,572.1 18.5 2,349.9 4,922.0 41.0 5,214.8 59A 7,564.7 10,136.8 43.5 Sector Policy and Research Agriculture and Rural Development 390.9 3.7 468.0 858.9 6.4 813.0 10.1 1,281.0 1,671.9 7.2 Environment 115.4 0.1 12.2 127.6 8.2 1,044.4 83 1,056.7 1,172.1 5.0 Infrastructure and Urban Development 246.0 2.2 277.2 523.2 4.6 579.6 6.7 856.9 1,102.9 4.7 Industry and Energy 197.6 0.8 107.3 304.9 10.8 1,380.2 11.7 1,487.4 1,685.0 7.2 Population and Human Resources 781.8 3.1 389.1 1,170.9 20.4 2,59&7 23.5 2,987.8 3,769.6 16.2 PRSVP 17.4 0.0 0.0 17.4 0.2 22.8 02 22.8 40.2 0.2 Subtotal 1,749.1 9.8 1,253.8 3,002.9 50.6 6,43&8 60.4 7,692.6 9,441.7 40.6 Other PRE 16.1 0.7 84.5 100.6 1.6 202.3 23 286.8 302.9 13 Regional offices Economic Advisory Office 220.1 0.0 0.0 220.1 1.3 223.0 13 223.0 443.1 1.9 Africa 884.6 0.0 0.0 884.6 0.0 4.1 0.0 4.1 888.7 3.8 Asia 143.0 0.0 0.0 143.0 0.1 14.0 0.1 14.0 157.0 0.7 Europe, Middle East and North Africa 216.6 0.8 136.9 353.5 5.0 880.0 5.7 1,017.0 1,233.6 5.3 Latin America and the Caribbean 271.9 0.0 0.0 271.9 1.8 320.7 1.8 320.7 592.6 2.5 CFSVP - 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 79.9 0.4 79.9 79.9 0.3 Subtotal 1,736.2 0.8 136.9 1,873.1 8.6 1,521.7 9.3 1,658.7 3,394.9 14.6 Other 5.0 0.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 0.0 Total 670785 29.7 33,82.1 9,903.6 101.7 13,377.6 131.4 17,202.7 23,2812 100.0 Sources: Planning and Budgeting Department and Research Administration. Table 43 Resources devoted to research by special emphasis, FY 1990 Centrally approwed projects Departmental studies Total research costs Research Support RSB and Budget Staff cost Total Staff cost Total staff cost total staff cost expenditure cost cost cost cost cost share (thousands time (thousands (thousands time (thousands lime (thousands (thousands of total Special emphasis area of dollars) (years) of dollars) of dollars) (years) of dollars) (years) of dollars) of dollars) (percent) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 =(2+5) 8 = (3+6) 9 = (8+1) Debt restructuring and adjustment 1,1053 5.1 652.4 1,757.7 19.4 2,556.9 24.5 3,209.3 4,314.6 185 Rnancial intermediation 99A 1.9 241.9 341.3 1.4 179.9 3.2 421.8 521.2 22 Food security 109.5 09 110.8 220.3 2.0 259.9 2.8 370.7 480.2 2.1 Poverty alleviation 696.6 4.1 5233 1,219.9 9.3 1,222.1 13.4 1,745.5 2,442.1 10.5 Environment 2912 0.8 102.1 3933 11.9 1,5592 12.6 1,6613 1,952.5 8.4 Human resources 4113 1.2 155.1 566.4 123 1,614.6 13.5 1,769.7 2,181.0 9.4 Women in development 226.0 0.3 35.9 261.9 2.1 281.9 2.4 317.7 543.7 23 AIDS 268.6 (00 0.0 268.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 268.6 12 Public secor management 583.1 2.4 310.1 8932 7.2 952.7 9.7 1,262.8 1,845.9 7.9 Privatization 795.9 2.7 352.4 1,148.3 5.2 687.5 8.0 1,039.9 1,835 7.9 Total, special emphasis areas 4,586.9 19.3 2,484.1 7,071.0 70.8 9,314.6 90.1 11,798.7 16,385.6 70A Other areas 656.1 8 1,131.7 1,787.8 28.7 3,776.3 37.5 4,908.0 5,564.1 23.9 Coordination, publication, and dissemination 835.5 1.6 2092 1,044.7 2.2 286.7 3.8 495.9 1,331.4 5.7 Total 6,0785 29.7 3,825.1 9,903.6 101.7 13,377.6 131.4 17,202.7 23,2812 100.0 Source: Planning and Budgeting Department and Research Administration. Table 4.4 RSB-funded research starts by fiscal year, 1985-90 FY 1985 FY 1986 FY 1987 FY 1988 FY 1989 FY 1990 Total thousands thousands thousands thousands thousands thousands thousands Size of pmiect number of dollars number of dollars number of dollars number of dollars number of dollars number of dollars number of dollars $0-$20,000 13 127.2 11 104.5 6 80.3 17 172.7 38 513.8 47 572.4 132 1,570.9 $20,001 - $100,000 17 807.3 14 657.2 15 793.1 11 523.7 15 1,093.2 20 1,331.3 92 5,205.8 $100,001 - $300,000 2 251.5 4 480.6 3 421.8 7 1,379.5 10 1,926.8 8 1,329.2 34 5,789.4 $300,001 - $999,999 1 386.4 - - - - 1 551.9 1 415.4 4 1,918.6 7 3,272.3 $1,000,000 and over 2 5,069.0 1 2,501.2 - - - - - - - - 3 7,570.2 Total 35 6,641.4 30 3,743.5 24 1,295.2 36 2,627.8 64 3,949.2 79 5,151.5 268 23,408.6 Source: Research Administration. Table 4.5 RSB-funded research starts (excluding research preparation) by fiscal year, 1985-90 FY 1985 FY 1986 FY 1987 FY 1988 FY 1989 FY 1990 Total thousands thousands thousands thousands thousands thousands thousands Size of project number of dollars number of dollars number of dollars number of dollars number of dollars number of dollars number of dollars $0 - $100,000 18 683.4 13 584.5 18 815.4 14 542.2 33 1,417.1 38 1,643.5 134 5,686.1 $100,001 - $300,000 2 251.5 4 480.6 3 421.8 7 1,379.5 10 1,926.8 8 1,329.2 34 5,789.4 $300,001 and over 3 5,455.4 1 2,501.2 - - 1 551.9 1 415.4 4 1,918.6 10 10,842.5 Total 23 6,390.3 18 3,566.3 21 1,237.2 22 2,473.6 44 3,759.3 50 4,891.3 178 22,318.0 Source: Research Administration. Table 4.6 RSB-funded research starts in fiscal 1990 Project Depart- Total RSB wde ment author- Project (RPO Principal respon- iation duration number) Title supervisor sible (S'000) (months) Poverty alleviation and food security 67548 Reform dilemmas and strategies in agriculture in sodalist countries A. Braverman ACR 60.0 23 67550 Trade policy and resource allocation in Indian agriculture G. Pursell CEC 60.0 20 67553 Agricultural technology generation, diffusion and implementation in developing countries J. Anderson AGR 6.0 6 67563 Subcontracting and the informal sector Z. Drabek AS2 20.0 15 67569 Enterprise strategies for productive training A. Mody IEN 9.0 6 67574 National accounting for developing economies in disequilibrium during transition M. Ward IEC 7.8 6 67591 The effects of the liberalization of the grain market on smallholders in Southern Malawi J. de Beyer AF6 50.0 26 67593 The social costs of non-adjustment changes in poverty in Peru from 1985 to 1990 P. Glewwe rHR 20.0 14 67596 Policy analysis and poverty: applicable methods and case studies, phase II - South Asia's experience M. Ravallion AGR 120.0 19 67603 Labor markets and macroeconomic adjustment in LDCs L Riveros CEC 7.0 6 67606 International and macroeconomic pcies in the agricultural development of Mexico A. Braverman AGR 10.0 6 67611 Impliations of agricultural policy reform for developing countries 0. Knudsen AGR 230.8 15 Subtotal 600.6 Human resources, including population and women in development 67558 Productivity, competitiveness and economic policy S. Nagaoka IEN 19.9 13 67561 Education, growth and inequality in Brazil N. Birdsall LAI 155.0 30 67571 The economic impact of fatal adult illness from AIDS and other causes in Sub-Saharan Africa M. Over PHR 591.4 41 67572 Imr-ediments to contraceptive use and fertility decline in different environments S. Cochrane PHR 232.0 29 67578 The relative efficiency of private and public schools E_ Jimenez CEC 19.8 13 67592 Dissemination - education and the informal sector in Peru D. de Tray RAD 18.0 2 67608 The study of household level demand for micronutrients J. McGuire PHR 20.0 5 Subtotal 1,056.1 Debt, financial intermediation, and adjustment 67532 Trade reforms in SALS - a positive analysis of performance and sustainability J. de Melo CEC 96.8 24 67534 Enterprise adjustments to reform in Hungary T. Condon EM4 2.7 6 67535 The impact of financial liberalization with special reference to interest rate levels: cross-country studies C. Caprio CEC 8.4 6 67536 Venture capital operations and their potential role in LDCs' financial markets S. Sagari CEC 9.2 7 67537 Festschrift in honor of Bela Belassa J. de Melo CEC 25.7 11 67547 Debt renegotiation, commodity bonds and sovereign risk T. Priovolos IEC 20.0 9 67549 Dissemination funds for the trade liberalization project D. Papageorgiou LAI 7.6 6 67551 Labor markets and adjustment in socialist countries T. King EDI 10.0 6 67552 Regulations against unfair imports: effects on developing countries M. Finger CEC 159.0 23 67554 Enterprise behavior and reform in socialist economies F. Dhanji EM4 5.0 6 67555 Workshop on African economic issues A. Ohhibber DEC 95.0 16 67564 The impact of EC-1992 and trade integration in selected Mediterranean .ountries D. Tarr EMT 89.2 30 67566 The framework of housing reforms in socialist economies B. Renaud INU 19.0 6 67567 African external finance in the 1990s J. Underwood IEC 123.4 14 67568 The determinants a foreign direct investment in developing countries: the case of West Germany J. Underwood IEC 20.0 8 67570 Managing the transition in adjustment programs M. Kiguel CEC 10.0 6 67575 The market-based menu approach - an analysis of commercial bank choice behavior A. Dermirguc-Kunt IEC 20.0 9 67576 Distributive aspects of debt adjustment I. Diwan IEC 19.5 4 67580 Factor productivity and economic growth: a cross-country study P. Armington IEC 6.0 6 67583 Private investment and macroeconomic adjustment - phase I L Serven CEC 50.0 13 67584 Stock market development and corporate finance - phase I M. Dailami CEC 37.5 7 Table 4.6 RSB-funded research starts in fiscal 1990 (cont.) Project Depart- Total RSB code ment author- Project (RPO Principal respon- ization duration number) Title supervisor sible ($'000) (months) 67585 Public policy and private investment in developing countries A. Chhibber CEC 9.8 3 67586 Public determinants of long-run growth W. Easterly CEC 9.8 7 67589 Stopping twenty percent inflation S. Fischer DEC 20.0 7 67590 The productivity of investment in Sub-Saharan Africa V. Lavy PHR 20.0 6 67594 Commodity exports and real income in Africa M. Schiff CEC 7.0 6 67599 Dissemination funds for the trade liberalization project (RPO 67331) A. Choksi LAI 90.0 19 67607 Closed-end country funds - theoretical and empirical investigation 1. Diwan IEC 51.0 13 67609 The coefficient of trade utilization R. Erzan IEC 9.6 6 Subtotal 1,051.2 Environment and natural resources 67533 Economic growth and trade policy in Western Africa: implications of the degradation of the vegetation cover R. Lopez CEC 95.0 13 67540 Tunis and Rabat water demand study H. Garn INU 19.9 23 67543 Improved accounting of natural resources and the environment for more sustainable resource management E. Lutz ENV 100.0 34 67559 Use of geographic information in natural resource management J. Warford ENV 6.5 6 67562 Constraints on the development and use of environmentally sound technologies E. Arrhenius PRS 15.0 6 67573 The effects of a new mine development on the local community in Papua New Guinea J. Strongman AFT 2.0 6 67579 Economic valuation of environmental impacts M. Munasinghe ENV 4.8 6 67581 Urban interfuel substitution - phase I D. Barnes IEN 75.0 15 67582 The relative health impacts of urban environmental deterioration C. Bartone INU 19.0 7 67587 Energy use and global greenhouse Issues R. Duncan IEC 12.0 7 67588 The Montreal Protocol on reducing CFC emissions: implications for developing countries M. Munasinghe ENV 9.0 7 67597 WIDER program - the environment and emerging development issues M. Munasinghe ENV 50.0 - Subtotal 408.2 Private sector development and public sector management 67538 Industrial reforms and productivity in Chinese enterprise I. Singh CEC 409.6 47 67539 Intellectual property rights protection and technology transfer through foreign direct investment G. Pfeffermann CET 5.0 7 67541 Heavy and chemical industry policy in large NICs V. Konovalov IEN 13.0 18 67542 Ex-post performance of divested state-owned enterprises A. Galal CEC 317.6 28 67544 Long-term sustainability of irrigation systems R. Meyers AGR 8.0 6 67545 Practical framework for evaluating mineral payment/taxation schemes Z. Shalizi CEC 159.0 27 67546 Fostering entrepreneurial activity E. Reuda-Sabatur CEC 8.4 6 67556 The political economy of fiscal policies in the developing countries: a pilot study C. Leechor CEC 38.0 19 67557 Network on industrial policies and sectoral incentives in Francophone Africa R. Armstrong AFR 150.0 - 67560 The infrastructure of developing countries A. Israel INU 8.0 6 67577 Regulations, institutions and economic efficiency - regulatory reform in developing countries B. Levy CEC 20.0 6 67595 Conference on privatization in socialist economies F. Dhanji EM4 80.0 14 67598 Equipment prices and policies for developing country export industries G. Pursell CEC 7.0 6 67602 The role of the private sector in providing social services J. Van der Gaag PHR 55.6 7 67605 Political economy and public management of state mining and oil companies J. Strongman AFT 60.0 13 Subtotal 1,339.2 Other areas 67565 French translation of MADIA papers U. Lele AFT 15.7 6 67601 Research symposium on military expenditures G. Lamb PRD 72.5 10 67604 African economic research consortium-phase II S. O'Brien AFR 600.0 - 67610 Implications of carbon tax schemes for developing countries A. Shah CEC 8.0 6 Subtotal 696.2 Total 5,151.5 Table 4.7 Fiscal 1990 RSB-funded research Project Depart- code ment Total Remaining (RPO respon- author- FY90 author- PRE theme/title number) Key sible iation al expenses b/ iZation Private sector development and public sector management Chinese collective industry 67405 R C AS3 128.6 2.8 0.0 Rural land tenure, credit markets, and agricultural investment In Sub-Saharan Africa 67432 R C AGR 220.0 354 0.0 Transport taxation and road user charges in Sub-Saharan Africa 67437 R 0 INU 70.0 14.8 30.0 A comparative study of public sector pay and employment policy 67445 P 0 CEC 8.9 0.0 0.0 Economic performance and policies of Sub-Saharan African nations in the marxist regimes 67448 P 0 AFR 19.0 - 0.0 Public and private transfers in Peru 67449 R C CEC 7.5 0.2 0.0 Reforming taxes in developing countries 67452 R C CEC 197.0 35.4 0.0 Land fragmentation in Rwanda 67472 R C AGR 20.0 20.5 0.0 Conference on rural development policies and the theory of rural organization 67480 0 AGR 125.0 3.8 0.0 Regional entrepreneurship/private sector development study 67490 P C AFT 28.0 16.6 0.0 Evaluation of tax incentives for industrial and technological development 67510 R 0 CEC 99.9 87.5 0.0 Diamond and gold in Sierre Leone: the small-scale sector and its role in the economy 67512 R C AF4 18.0 12.7 0.0 Policies for addressing regional employment 67513 P O EM4 6.0 - 0.0 Taxation in Mexico 67520 R 0 LA2 17.6 9.8 6.7 Labor redundancy in the transportation sector 67521 R 0 INU 189.0 119.2 49.5 Planning conference on the measurement and evaluation of macroeconomic performance of CPE and Yugoslavia 67524 P C IEC 18.0 2.5 0.0 Lessons from the Chilean privatization experience 67525 R 0 LAI 62.0 48.6 0.0 Enterprise adjustment to reforms in Hungary 67534 P C EM4 2.7 2.7 0.0 Industrial reforms and productivity in Chinese enterprise 67538 R 0 CEC 409.6 57.1 352.5 Intellectual property rights protection and technology transfer through foreign direct investment 67539 P C CEI 5.0 5.0 0.0 Ex-post performance of divested state-owned enterprises 67542 R 0 CEC 317.6 181.5 136.1 Practical framework for evaluating mineral payment/taxation schemes 67545 R 0 CEC 159.0 363 119.0 Fostering entreprenurial activity 67546 P C CEC 8.4 8.3 0.0 Network on industrial policies and sectoral incentives in Francophone Africa 67557 0 AFR 150.0 150.0 0.0 Conference on privatization in socialist economies 67595 R 0 CEC 80.0 93.2 0.0 The role of the private sector in providing social services 67602 R 0 PHR 55.6 10.0 45.6 Political economy and public management of state mining and oil companies 67605 R 0 AFT 60.0 - 60.0 Closed-end country funds - theoretical and empirical investigation 67607 R 0 IEC 51.0 - 51.0 Subtotal 2,533.4 953.9 850.4 Adjustment and growth Macroeconomic policies, crisis and growth in the long run 67399 R 0 EAS 2,501.2 220.1 455.2 Uncertainty and agricultural price policies: an application to Brazil 67414 K C AGR 70.0 0.9 0.0 Stopping high inflation: four case studies, phase I and phase II 67424 R 0 CEC 175.0 113.9 0.0 Exchange rate policies and structure of labor market in three Latin American countries 67430 R C CEC 45.5 1.2 0.0 International and macroeconomic policies in the agricultural development of Mexico 67442 R C AGR 124.4 9.9 0.0 Inflation, price controls and fiscal adjustment in Africa 67508 R C DECVP 75.5 34.4 0.0 Poverty and the social dimensions of structural adjustment in Cote dIvoire 67526 R 0 AF1 100.0 24.5 52.0 Macroeconomic aspects of foreign exchange markets in developing countries 67530 R 0 CEC 265.0 74.4 190.6 Macroeconomics of public sector deficits 67531 R 0 CEC 315.5 113.9 201.6 Labor markets and adjustment in socialist countries 67551 P C EDI 10.0 10.0 0.0 Workshop on African economic issues 67555 0 DECVP 95.0 72.7 20.0 The political economy of fiscal policies in the developing countries 67556 R 0 CEC 38.0 19.0 19.0 The infrastructure of developing countries 67560 P C INU 8.0 7.1 0.0 The framework of housing reforms in socialist economies 67566 P 0 INU 19.0 17.3 0.0 Managing the transition in adjustment programs 67570 P O CEC 10.0 8.0 0.0 Private investment and macroeconomic adjustment - phase I 67583 R 0 CEC 50.0 7.9 42.0 Policy determinants of long-run growth 67586 P 0 CEC 9.8 2.3 3.8 Table 4.7 Fiscal 1990 RSB-funded research (cont.) Project Depart- ode ment Total Remaining (RPO respon- author- FY90 author- PRE teme/title number) Key sible iation / exaenses b/ intion Stopping twenty percent inflation 67589 R 0 DECVP 20.0 20.0 0.0 The social costs of non-adjustment- changes in poverty in Peru from 1985 to 1990 67593 R 0 PHR 20.0 19.0 1.0 Policy analysis and poverty: applicable methods and case studies, phase II - South Asia's experience 67596 R 0 ACR 120.0 - 120.0 Labor markets and macroeconomic adjustment in LDCs 67603 P 0 CEC 7.0 5.0 2.0 Subtotal 4,078.9 781.5 1,107.2 Global outlook, debt management, and trade Comparative study on the political economy of poverty, equity and growth 67373 R 0 LAT 2,493.0 104.1 50.8 Trade policies and productivity improvements 67413 R C CEC 30.0 3.2 0.0 The footwear industry in developing countries and how to adjust to non-tariff barriers to international trade 67420 R C CEC 100.0 1.5 0.0 Agricultural supply response in Sub-Saharan Africa 67428 R 0 IEC 102.0 42.9 0.0 The Colombian case of external debt management in the 70s and 80s: lessons for the 1990s 67454 P C LAC 7.0 -3.0 0.0 Currency management of external debt 67464 R C IEC 15.0 - 0.0 Evaluation of tax and pricing policies for perennial crop producers 67477 R C IEC 38.6 14.4 0.0 Costs and benefits of market-based debt reductions 67489 R C IEC 17.0 0.7 0.0 Currency commodity price and interest rate risks 67494 R C IEC 20.0 0.1 0.0 Consequences of temporary trade shocks on developing countries 67498 R 0 CEC 165.0 -63.4 45.4 Antidumping: a problem in international trade 67503 P C CEC 3.8 - 0.0 Testing for systematic differences in initial and final project evaluation 67515 R 0 IEC 83.0 35.7 30.6 Trade policy simulation package 67518 R C CEC 10.0 10.0 0.0 Trade reforms in SALS - a positive analysis of performance and sustainability 67532 R 0 CEC 96.8 58.6 31.8 Economic growth and trade policy in Western Africa: implications of the degradation of the vegetation cover 67533 R 0 CEC 95.0 89.7 5.3 Festschrift in honor of Bela Belassa 67537 C CEC 25.7 25.4 0.0 Debt renegotiation, commodity bonds and sovereign risk 67547 R C IEC 20.0 20.4 0.0 Dissemination funds for the trade liberalization project 67549 R C LA1 7.6 8.1 0.0 Trade policy and resource allocation in Indian agriculture 67550 R 0 CEC 60.0 30.5 29.5 Regulations against unfair imports: effects on developing countries 67552 R 0 CEC 159.0 64.0 95.0 Enterprise behavior and reform in socialist economies 67554 P C EM4 5.0 5.0 0.0 The impact of EC-1992 and trade integration in selected Mediterranean countries 67564 R 0 EMT 892 33.1 54.4 African external finance in the 1990s 67567 R 0 IEC 123.4 85.9 37.5 The determinants of foreign direct investment in developing countries: the case of West Germany 67568 R 0 IEC 20.0 19.9 0.0 The market-based menu approach - an analysis of commercial bank choice behavior 67575 R 0 IEC 20.0 20.0 0.0 Distributive aspects of debt adjustment 67576 R C IEC 19.5 20.4 0.0 Regulations, institutions and economic efficiency - regulatory reform in developing countries 67577 P 0 CEC 20.0 20.0 0.0 Factor productivity and economic growth: a cross-country study 67580 P 0 IEC 6.0 5.2 0.0 Stock market development and corporate finance - phase I 67584 R C CEC 37.5 15.9 21.6 The productivity of investment in Sub-Saharan Africa 67590 P 0 PHR 20.0 21.1 0.0 Commodity exports and real income in Africa 67594 P 0 CEC 7.0 2.1 2.0 Dissemination funds for the trade liberalization project (RPO 67331) 67599 0 LAI 90.0 - 90.0 The coefficient of trade utilization 67609 P 0 IEC 9.6 - 9.6 Subtotal 4,015.7 691.5 503.5 Reforming financial systems Rural credit markets, investments and agricultural productivity in Qina 67434 R C AGR 169.6 393 0.0 Taxation of financial assets and financial intermediation 67488 R C CEC 20.0 17.2 0.0 Capital markets, official finance and the third world 67492 R D IEC 24.0 - 0.0 The impact of financial liberalization with special reference to interest rate levels: cross-country study 67535 P C CEC 8.4 8.3 0.0 Venture capital operations and their potential role in LDCs' financial market 67536 P C CEC 9.2 9.2 0.0 Public policy and private investment in developing countries 67585 C CEC 9.8 8.0 0.0 241.0 82.0 0.0 Table 4.7 Fiscal 1990 RSB-funded research (cont.) Project Depart- cde ment Total Remaining (RPO respon- author- FY90 author- PRE theme/title number) Key sible iration al zxpenses b iWtion Improved accounting of natural resources and the environment for more sustainable resource management 67543 R 0 ENV 100.0 36.7 633 Reform dilemmas and strategies in agriculture in socialist countries 67548 R 0 ACR 60.0 58.2 0.0 Use of geographic information in natural resource management 67559 P C ENV 6.5 6.5 0.0 The effects of a new mine development on the local community in Papua New Guinea 67573 P 0 AFT 2.0 2.0 0.0 Economic valuation of environmental impacts 67579 P 0 ENV 4.8 4.8 0.0 Urban interfuel substitution - phase 1 67581 R 0 IEN 75.0 26.8 48.2 The relative health impacts of urban environment deterioration 67582 R 0 INU 19.0 19.0 0.0 Energy use and global greenhouse issues 67587 P 0 IEC 12.0 12.1 0.0 The Montreal Protocol on reducing CFC emissions - implications for developing countries 67588 P 0 ENV 9.0 9.0 0.0 WIDER program - the environment and emerging development issues 67597 R 0 ENV 50.0 50.0 0.0 International and macroeconomic policies in the agricultural development of Mexico 67606 R 0 AGR 10.0 - 10.0 Implications of agricultural policy reform for developing countries 67611 R 0 AGR 230.8 - 230.8 Subtotal 3,553.8 372.6 3523 People and the development process Returns to investment in school quality in rural Brazil 67293 R C EMT 376.3 45.7 0.0 Multi-level models of school quality and efficiency 67443 R C PHR 69.3 9.2 0.0 Assessing the quality and socioeconomic impact of education in Sub-Saharan Africa: a comparative study 67457 R 0 PHR 73.7 24.4 0.0 The response of firms in LDCs to a change in trade regimes: export subsidy cum import tax in Cote d'lvoire 67468 R C PHR 20.0 0.5 0.0 Expansion of female employment in the EMENA region 67481 R 0 EMT 207.5 74.8 26.6 Small grants to support a national educational achievement test in Brazil 67484 R C LAI 20.0 4.3 0.0 Effectiveness and efficiency of vocational training and technical education in Latin America 67485 R C LAT 20.0 -2.8 0.0 Colloquium on groundwater irrigation and the poor 67486 C ASI 20.7 1.1 0.0 Household labor supply response to economic changes in LDCs, phase 1 67487 R C PHR 15.0 1.2 0.0 Nigeria: health care costs, financing and utilization 67493 R C AF4 75.2 34.9 0.0 The economic impact of adult deaths from AIDS in Sub-Saharan Africa 67499 P C PHR 7.0 1.4 0.0 Econometric study of food aid in Africa 67501 R C AFR 20.0 5.0 0.0 Adult health in the Americas 67502 P C LAI 15.0 6.0 0.0 Policy analysis of poverty: applicable methods and case studies - phase 1 67504 R 0 AGR 120.0 77.0 25.0 Poverty in Nepal 67505 R C AS1 19.7 12.9 0.0 Poverty alleviation and adjustment in Malaysia 67509 R 0 AS2 99.8 98.2 0.0 Women, public services and income generation 67514 R 0 PHR 213.7 133.3 41.1 Health insurance in developing countries 67517 P C LA2 6.5 6.4 0.0 Poverty, female-headed families and the welfare of children and youths in Brazil 67522 R 0 LAI 18.7 17.9 0.0 Collection of community data on access a family planning in Zimbabwe 67523 R C PHR 20.0 20.0 0.0 Income change and savings: Cote d'lvoire and Thailand 67527 R 0 PHR 98.0 89.4 0.0 Human capital accumulation in post-green revolution rural economies: Pakistan 67528 R 0 EMI 84.2 55.3 28.3 Poverty, growth and adjustment in Pakistan 67529 R 0 PHR 136.1 99.3 35.7 Education, growth and inequality in Brazil 67561 R 0 LAl 155.0 73.1 81.9 Subcontracting and the informal sector 67563 R 0 AS2 20.0 18.0 0.0 Enterprise strategies for productive training 67569 P 0 IEN 9.0 12.3 0.0 The economic impact of fatal adult illness from AIDS and other causes in Sub-Saharan Africa 67571 R 0 PHR 591.4 267.2 324.2 Impediments to contraceptive use and fertility decline in different environments 67572 R 0 PHR 232.0 85.8 146.0 National accounting for developing economies in disequilibrium during transition 67574 P 0 IEC 7.8 7.8 0.0 The relative efficiency of private and public schools 67578 0 CEC 19.8 13.9 5.9 The effects of the liberalization of the grain market on smallholders Table 4.7 Fiscal 1990 RSB-funded research (cont.) Project Depart- code ment Total Remaining (RPO respon- author- FY90 author- PRE theme/title number) Key sible ization of xpenses b/ ization in Southern Malawi 67591 R 0 AF6 50.0 - 50.0 Dissemination - education and the informal sector in Peru 67592 C RAD 18.0 18.0 0.0 The study of household level demand for micronutrients 67608 R 0 PHR 20.0 - 20.0 Subtotal 2,879.4 1,311.5 784.7 Technology, productivity, and development Agricultural research in Africa and Asia: comparative lessons from rice in Sierre Leone, Sri Lanka and elsewhere 67429 R C AFR 144.8 19.8 0.0 Industrial competition, productive efficiency and their relation to the trade regime 67446 R 0 CEC 262.5 150.9 25.5 New technologies, location, and trade: an empirical analysis 67469 R C IEN 190.0 88.7 0.0 Electric power utility efficiency study - phase 1 67506 R 0 IEN 75.0 36.9 0.0 Heavy and chemical industry policy in large NICs 67541 R 0 IEN 13.0 13.0 0.0 Productivity, competitiveness and economic policy 67558 R 0 IEN 19.9 19.9 0.0 Constraints on the development and use of environmentally sound technologies 67562 P C PRS 15.0 17.4 0.0 Equipment prices and policies for developing country export industries 67598 P 0 CEC 7.0 4.0 3.0 Subtotal 727.2 350.6 28.5 Providing basic infrastructure services Demand for rural water supply 67435 R C INU 100.0 19.7 0.0 Transportation and agricultural supply responses in Africa 67475 R 0 INU 50.5 29.1 0.0 Rental housing markets in Southern Africa 67479 P 0 AF6 6.5 - 0.0 Tunis and Rabat water demand study 67540 R 0 NU 19.9 19.8 0.0 Long-term sustainability of irrigation systems 67544 P C AGR 8.0 7.8 0.0 Agricultural technology generation, diffusion and implementation in developing countries 67553 P C ACR 6.0 6.9 0.0 Research symposium on military expenditures 67601 R 0 PRD 72.5 16.1 45.9 Implications of carbon tax schemes for developing countries 67610 P 0 CEC 8.0 - 8.0 Subtotal 271.4 99.4 53.9 Coordination, publication, and dissemination Research review and evaluation 67228 0 RAD 1,075.1 52.2 0.0 World Bank Economic Review 67357 0 RAD 386.4 115.4 0.0 Research Observer 67361 0 RAD 148.0 302 0.0 Research News 67371 0 RAD 103.5 11.2 0.0 Visiting research fellow program 67462 0 RAD 551.9 317.5 0.0 Annual conference on development economics 67482 0 RAD 415.4 2933 0.0 French translation of MADIA papers 67565 C AFT 15.7 15.7 0.0 African economic research consortium - phase II 67604 R 0 AFR 600.0 600.0 0.0 Subtotal 3,296.0 1,435.5 0.0 Total 21,596.8 6,C78.5 3,680.5 Note: This table includes all research projects approved by the Research Committee and funded from the RSB that were active or started during FY 1990. Fire projects in this list were closed in FY 1989 but had expenditures in FY 1990. They are listed here but are excluded from the total number of projects for 1990. Negative numbers represent RPO accrual reversals from FY 1989 to FY 1990. Data may not aud to totals because of rounding. a. These amounts represent Research Committee authorizations as of June 30,1990, and do not include contributions from outside sources. b. Includes disbursements and outstanding commitments as of June 30,1990. Key: R=research project, P=research preparation, O=ongoing, and C=closed during the fiscal year. Appendix 5 Visiting Research Fellow Program: Research Fellows at the Bank during FY90 Nominating Name Affiliation divisions Research area Duration V.K. Chetty Indian Statistical CECMG/AS3CO Macroeconomic adjustment May 15,1989 Institute, New Delhi problems of centrally to planned economies Oct. 15, 1989 Leonardo Auernheimer Texas A & M University LACVP Macroeconomic policies Jun. 1, 1989 College Station in Latin America to Dec. 31, 1989 Oded Stark Harvard University PHRWH The interaction of rural-urban Jul. 1, 1989 migration and poverty, and to possible policy implications Sep. 30, 1989 Franqois Bourguignon DELTA/Ecole des Hautes LATHR Poverty alleviation, Income Jul. 1, 1989 Etudes en Sciences distribution effects, and income to Sociales, Paris redistribution in the context Sep. 30,1989 of structural adjustment Gene M. Grossman Princeton University CECTP North-South model of trade, Jul. 3,1989 technology transfer, and to learning-induced growth Aug. 5, 1989 Stephan Haggard Harvard University CECMG The political economy of Jan. 1, 1990 inflation and stabilization in to middle-income countries Aug. 31,1990 Yair Mundlak University of Chicago LA1DR The role of agriculture in Jan. 1, 1990 economic growth: an empirical to model for policy analysis Mar. 31, 1990 Peter J. Bohm University of Stockholm PRSVP Global environmental issues Jan. 14,1990 and North-South interaction on to global environmental protection Jul.31, 1990 Luis J. Guasch University of California AGRAP (1) Cooperatives and credit Mar. 15, 1990 at San Diego groups in Africa; (2) the timing to and extent of agricultural Jul. 15, 1990 reforms in socialist economies RK. Pachauri Tata Energy Research JENED The environmental impact of Jun. 6,1990 Institute, New Delhi energy investments and to technology choices Sep. 5, 1990 Akinlawon L Mabogunje Pai Associates Inter- AFIN Urban land and urban May 1,1990 national Ltd., Lagos management policies in to Sub-Saharan Africa Jul. 31, 1990 Duane Chapman Cornell University ENVPR A Bank-wide agenda for research Jun. 15, 1990 on environmental policy, parti- to cularly the sustainable use of Dec. 15, 1990 land, water, and air resources and global environmental problems Kala Krishna Harvard University IECIT (1)Non-tariff bariers under imperfect Jun. 15,1990 competition: the Multi-Fibre Arrange- to ment; (2) microeconomic foundations Sep. 15, 1990 and empirical problems of key economic concepts, such as openness, competi- tiveness, and export-orientation Appendix 6 Bank research output, fiscal 1990 ings of work under way in the PRE complex. Clearance of PRE Working Papers is done at the This appendix lists various types of research out- departmental level, and by the DECVP office in put arising from research and pol,y review ac- the case of DEC. The primary audience is Bank tivities at the Bank. In order to provide maximum staff, though some copies are circulated to inter- coverage of such output, research is defined for ested researchers outside the Bank. the purposes of this appendix in a broader rather H. Departmental working papers. These pa- than a narrower sense. pers are produced and distributed by PRE depart- The following types of Fiscal 1990 research out- ments and some divisions. They disseminate put are listed: quickly findings of departmental research and are A. Research-oriented books written by Bank targeted primarily to specialists in the Bank. The staff and published either by the Bank or by other papers are cleared at the departmental level. publ:shers. This list also includes periodic data publications,suchasthe World Debt Tables,thatfeed A. Books by Bank researchers published in subsequent research. fiscal 1990 B. Research by Bank staff published as part of collected volumes of research papers. Acsadi, George T.F., Gwendolyn Johnson-Acsadi, C. Articles appearing in the Bank's two eco- and Rodolfo A. Bulatao. 1990. Population Growth nomics journals, the World Bank Economic Review and Reproduction in Sub-Saharan Africa: Technical and World Bank Research Observer. Analyses ofFertilityand its Consequences. AWorld D. Articles related to Bank research and Bank Symposium. Washington, DC: World published in non-Bank professional journals. Bank. E. Policy and Research Series, a formal series Dillon, J., and J. Anderson, eds. 1990. The Analysis fordisseminationofPREpolicyandresearchwork of Response in Crop and Livestock Production. of professional quality, with a Etrong policy orien- Oxford: Pergamon Press. tation, and of interest to a relatively wide audi- Farrell, Joseph P., and Stephen P. Heyneman. ence. 1989. Textbooks in the Developing World: Eco- F. World BankDiscussion Papers, Technical nomic and Educational Choices. An Economic Papers, and other Bank papers series: Development Institute Symposium. Washing- World Bank Discussion Papers. This series pro- ton, DC: World Bank. vides an outlet in the public domain for a broad Goldin, Ian, and Odin Knudsen, eds. 1990. Ag- range of Bank output that provides detailed re- ricultural Trade Liberalization: Implications for sults of interest to development practitioners - Developing Countries. Washington, DC: World from work on narrow research topics or country- Bank. specific studies. The series undergoes relevant Goto, Junichi. 1990. Labor in International Trade. departmental review, and a subsequent review by Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press. RAD (possibly including external reviews). Hamilton, Carl B., ed. 1990. Textiles Trade and the World Bank Technical Papers. This series provides Developing Countries: Eliminating the Multi-Fibre an outlet in the public domain for research and Arrangement in the 1990s. Washington, DC: studies that are highly technical and aimed at a World Bank. narrower audience. The clearance procedure is Husain, Ishrat, and Ishac Diwan. 1989. Dealing the sameas foy *'e World BankDiscussionPapers. with the Debt Crisis. A World Bank Symposium. Other published series. Papers in such series as the Washington, DC: World Bank. LSMS, EDI, and SDA Series typically focus on a Laird, Samuel, and Alexander Yeats. 1990. specialized topic and are designed to give promi- Quantitative Methods for Trade Barrier Analysis. nence to Bank work on that topic or to work by a London: Macmillan Press. particular Bank unit. For series originating within Messerlin, Patrick A., and Karl Sauvant,eds. 1990. PRE, such as the LSMS Series and the Commodity The Uruguay Round: Services in the World Economy. Working Paper Series, clearance procedures 1!e Washington, DC: World Bank. the same as for the World Bank Discussion PayU. Schramm,Gunter, andJeremy Warford, eds. 1989. EDI Seminar Series are cleared by EDI. Environmental Management and Economic Devel- G. PRE Working Papers. These working pa- opment. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University pers are a vehicle for quick dissemination, some- Press. times in an incomp4etely polished format,of find- Thomas, Vinod, and Ajay Chhibber, eds. 1989. 57 Adjustment Lending: How It Has Worked, How It proach. Taylor & Francis Co. Can BeImproved. Washington,DC: World Bank. Jamshidi, A. 1989. "A Macroeconomic Model of World Bank. Price Prospects for Major Primary Sudan." In Dominick Salvatore, ed., African Commodities, 1988-2000: Update. Washington, Development Prospects: A Policy Modeling Ap- DC. (Published quarterly.) proach. Taylor & Francis Co. World Bank. 1989. World Debt Tables 1989-90. Vol. Paterson, W.D.O. 1990. "Quantifying the Effec- 1: Analysis and Summary. Washington, DC. tiveness of Pavement Maintenance and Reha- World Bank. 1989. World Debt Tables. Vol. 2: bilitation." Proceedings ofthe6th Conference of the Country Tables. Washington, DC. Road Engineering Association of Asia and World Bank. 1990. World Tables 1989-90 Edition. Australasia. Kuala Lumpur. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press. Paterson, W.D.O., and T. Scullion. 1990. "An Integrated Classification of Data Needs and Ac- B. Articles by Bank researchers in books quisition Methods for Road Information Sys- published in fiscal 1990 tems." In Proceedings ofa Colloquium on Informa- tion Technology. Paris: l'Ecole Nationale des Anderson, J.R., G. Antony, and J.S. Davis. 1990. Ponts et Chaussees. "Research Priority Setting in a Small Develop- Pouliquen, L.Y., and A. Faiz. 1990. "Road Preser- ing Country: The Case of Papua New Guinea." vation and Management in the Asia Region: A In R.G. Echevarria, ed., Methods for Diagnosing Perspective for the 1990s." Proceedings of the 6th Research System Constraints and Assessing the Conference of the Road Engineering Association of Impact of Agricultural Research, Vol. 2: Assessing Asia and Australasia. Kuala Lumpur. the Impact of Agricultural Research. The Hague: Srsen, M., M. Keller, and W.D.O. Paterson. 1990. ISNAR. "Objective Evaluation of the Pavement Rating Anderson, J.R., and R.W. Herdt. 1990. "Reflec- Method in Croatia." InProceedingsofaColloquium tionson ImpactAssessment." InR.G.Echevarria, on Information Technology. Paris: l'Eco!e ed., Methods for Diagnosing Research System Con- Nationale des Ponts et Chaussees. straints and Assessing the Impact of Agricultural Thompson, L., E.R. Petersen, and W.G. Wood. Research, Vol. 1: Diagnosing Agricultural System 1990. "World Railway Performance Survey." Constraints. The Hague: ISNAR. Developing Railways 90: A Railway Gazette Year- Deighton,R.A.,andW.D.O.Paterson. 1990. "Road book. Sutton: Railway Gazette International. Data Storage: A Guide to Allowing Upgrading and Expansion." In Proceedings of a Colloquium C. Articles published in the World Bank on Information Technology. Paris: l'Ecole Economic Review and W ;rld Bank Research Nationale des Ponts et Chaussees. Observer in fiscal 1990 Faiz, A., and C. de Castro. 1990. "Emerging Trends in Road Transportation in Developing Caballero, Ricardo J., and Vittorio Corbo. 1989. Countries." In Proceedings of the XXIInd Con- "The Effect of Real Exchange Rate Uncertainty gress of the International Road Transport Union. on Exports: Empirical Evidence." World Bank Rio de Janeiro. Economic Review 3(2):263-78. Glewwe, Paul. 1989. "The Poor in Latin America Carmichael,Jeffrey. 1989. "TheDebtCrisis: Where During Adjustment: The Case of Peru" (in Do We Stand after Seven Years?" World Bank Spanish). In Juan R. Vargas and F61ix Delgado, Research Observer 4(2):121-42. eds, Progreso T&nico y Estructura Econ6mica. San Cuddington, John. 1989. "Commodity Export Jos6, Costa Rica: Center for Applied Economics. Booms in Developing Countries." World Bank Glewwe, Paul, and Dennis de Tray. 1990. "The Research Observer 4(2):143-65. Poor During Adjustment: A Case Study of C8te Deaton, Angus. 1989. "Household Survey Data d'Ivoire." In Per Pinstrup-Andersen, ed. 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Living Standards Asia Regional Office, Washington, DC. Measurement Study Working Paper 66. Wash- Ahmed, Sadiq, and Ajay Chhibber. 1989. "How ington, DC: World Bank. Can Indonesia Maintain Creditworthiness and Winkler, Donald R. 1990. Higher Education in Latin Noninflationary Growth?" PRE Working Paper America; Iuu of Efliciency and Equity. World 291. World Bank, Office of the Vice President, Bank Discussion Paper 77. Washington, DC. Development Economics, Washington, DC. World Bank. 1990. The Long-Term Perspective Study Akiyama, Takamasa, and Donald F. Larson. 1989. of Sub-Saharan Africa; vol. 1: Country Perspec- "Recent Trends and Prospects for Agricultural tives. Washington, DC: World Bank. Conunodity Exports in Sub-Saharan Africa." World Bank. 1990. TheLong-Term Perspective Study PRE Working Paper 348. World Bank, Interna- of Sub-Saharan Africa; vol.2: Economicand Sectoral tional EconomicsDepartment, Washington, DC. Policy Issues. Washington, DC: World Bank. Al-Sultan, Fawzi H. 1989. "Averting Financial World Bank. 1990. The Long-Term Perspective Study Crisis - Kuwait." PRE Working Paper 243. of Sub-Saharan Africa; vol 3: Tnstitutional and World Bank, Office of the Executive Directors, Sociopolitical Issues. Washington, DC: World Washington, DC. Bank. Ardeni, Pier Giorgio, and Brian Wright. 1990. World Bank. 1990. The Long-Term Perspective Study "The Long-Term Behavior of Commodity of Sub-Saharan Africa; vol 4: Proceedings of a Prices." PRE Working Paper 358. World Bank, Workshop on Regional Integration and Cooperation. International Economics Department, Wash- Washington, DC: World Bank. ington, DC. World Bank and Instituto Italo Africano. 1990. Arnold, Fred. 1989. "Revised Estimates and Strengthening Local Governments In Sub-Saharan Projections of International Migration, 1980- Africa. Economic Development Institute Policy 2000." PRE Working Paper 275. World Bank, Seminar Report 21. 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"The Effect of Job ment Series. Washington, DC. Training on Peruvian Women's Employment and Wages." PRE Working Paper 241. World G. PRE Working Papers published in fiscal Bank, Population and Human Resources De- 1990 partment, Washington, DC. Arslan, Ismail, and Sweder van Wijnbergen. 1990. Acharya, Sankarshan, and Ishac Diwan. 1989. "Turkey: Export Miracle or Accounting Trick?" "Sovereign Debt Buybacks as a Signal of Cred- PRE Working Paper 370. World Bank, Latin itworthiness." PRE Working Paper 318. World America and the Caribbean Regional Office, Bank, International Economics Department, Washington, DC. Washington, DC. Auerbach, Alan. 1990. "The Cost of Capital and Ahmad, Ehtisham, and Stephen Ludlow. 1989. Investment in Developing Countries." PRE "The Distributional Consequences of a Tax Re- Working Paper 410. World Bank, Country Eco- form on a VAT for Pakistan." PRE Working nomics Department, Washington, DC. Paper 238. World Bank, Country Economics Balassa, Bela. 1989. "Adjustment Policies in East Department, Washington, DC. Asia." PRE Working Paper 280. World Bank, 66 Office of the Vice President, Development Eco- ciency and Equity in Social Spending: How and nomics, Washington, DC. Why Governments Misbehave." PRE Working Balassa, Bela. 1989. "EMENA Manufactured Paper 274. World Bank, Population and Human Exports and EEC Trade Policy." PRE Working Resources Department, Washington, DC. Paper 282. World Bank, Office of the Vice Presi- Bitran-Dicowsky, Ricardo, and David W. Dunlop. dent, Development Economics, Washington, 1989. "The Determinants of Hospital Costs: An DC. Analysis cf Ethiopia." PRE Working Paper 249. Balassa, Bela. 1989. "Tariff Policy and Taxation in World Bank, Population and Human Resources Developing Countries." PRE Working Paper Department, Washington, DC. 281. World Bank, Office of the Vice President, Blomqvist, Ake, and Emmanuel Jimenez. 1989. Development Economics, Washington, DC. 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World Bank,Office of theVicePresident, 258. World Bank, Country Economics Depart- Development Economics, Washington, DC. ment, Washington, DC. Baran, Yalcin M. 1989. "Harmonizing Tax Poli- Buckley, Robert M. 1989. "Housing Finance in cies in Central America." PRE Working Paper Developing Countries: A Transaction Cost 308. World Bank, Latin America and the Carib- Appproach." PRE Working Paper 347. World bean Regional Office, Washington, DC. Bank, Office of the Vice President, Develop- Baran, Yalcin M. 1989. "How to Improve Public ment Economics, Washington, DC. Sector Finances in Honduras." PRE Working Buckley, Robert, and Anupam Dokeniya. 1990. Paper 309. World Bank, Latin America and the "Inflation, Monetary Balances, and the Aggre- Caribbean Regional Office, Washington, DC. gate Production Function: The Case of Colom- Bartone, Carl, Janis Bernstein, and Frederick bia." PRE Working Paper 366. World Bank, Wright. 1990. "Investments in Solid Waste InfrastructureandUrbanDevelopmentDepart- Management: Opportunities for Environmen- ment, Washington, DC. tal Improvement." PRE Working Paper 405. Bulatao, Rodolfo A., Eduard Bos, Patience W. World Bank, Infrastructure and Urban Devel- Stephens, and My T. Vu. 1989. "Africa Region opment Department, Washington, DC. Population Projections, 1989-90 Edition." PRE Bateman,MerrillJ.,AlexanderMeeraus,DavidM. Working Paper 330. World Bank, Population Newbery, William Asenso Okyere, and Gerald and Human Resources Department, Washing- T. O'Mara. 1990. "Ghana's Cocoa Pricing ton, DC. Policy." PRE Working Paper 429. World Bank, Bulatao, Rodolfo A., Eduard Bos, Patience W. Agriculture and Rural Development Depart- Stephens, and My T. Vu. 1989. "Asia Region ment, Washington, DC. Population Projections, 1989-90 Edition." PRE Besley, Timothy, and Ravi Kanbur. 1990. "The Working Paper 331. World Bank, Population Principles of Targeting." PRE Working Paper and Human Resources Department, Washing- 385. World Bank,OfficeoftheResearch Admin- ton, DC. istrator, Washington, DC. Bulatao, Rodolfo A., Eduard Bos, Patience W. Bhandari, Jagdeep S., Nadeem Ul Haque, and Stephens,andMyT.Vu. 1989. "Europe, Middle Stephen J. Turnovsky. 1989. "Growth, Debt, East, and North Africa (EMN) Region Popula- and Sovereign Risk in a Small,Open Economy." tion Projections, 1989-90 Edition." PRE Work- PRE Working Paper 260. World Bank, Country ing Paper 328. World Bank, Population and Economics Department, Washington, DC. Human Resources Department, Washington, Birdsall, Nancy, and Estelle James. 1990. "Effi- DC. 67 Bulatao Rodolfo A., Eduard Bos, Patience W. Market Debt (Applied to Mexico)." PRE Work- Steph ns, and My T. Vu. 1989. "Latin America ing Paper 333. World Bank, International Eco- and tFe Caribbean (LAC) Region Population nomics Department, Washington, DC. Piojections, 1989-90 Edition." PRE Working Cline, William R. 1989. "The Baker Plan: Progress, Paper 329. World Bank, Population and Human Shortcomings, and Future." PRE Working Pa- Resources Department, Washington, DC. per 250. World Bank, International Economics Bulatao, Rodolfo A., Eduard Bos, Patience W. Department, Washington, DC. Stephens, and My T. Vu. 1989. "Projecting Colby, Michael E. 1989. "The Evolution of Para- Mortality for All Countries." PRE Working dignsofEnvironmentalManagementinDevel- Paper 337. World Bank,Populationand Human opment." PRE Working Paper 313. World Resources Department, Washington, DC. Bank, Strategic Planning and Review Depart- Byrd, William, and Alan Gelb. 1990. "Township, ment, Washington, DC. Village, and Private Industry in China's Eco- Colclough, Christopher. 1989. "The Labor Mar- nomicReform." PRE Working Paper406. World ket and EconomicStabilization inZambia." PRE Bank, Country Economics Department, Wash- Working Paper 222. World Bank, Country Eco- ington, DC. nomics Department, Washington, DC. Catsambas, Thanos, and Miria Pigato. 1989. "The Corbo, Vittorio. 1989. "Public Finance, Trade,and Consistency of Governmett Deficits with Mac- Development: The Chilean Experience." PRE roeconomic Adjustment: An Application to Working Paper 218. World Bank, Country Eco- Kenya and Ghana." PRE Working Paper 287. nomics Department, Washington, DC. World Bank, Africa Technical Department, Corden, W. Max. 1990. "Exchange Rate Policy in Washington, DC. Developing Countries." PRE Working Paper Chamley, Christophe, and Patrick Honohan. 1990. 412. World Bank, Country Economics Depart- "Taxation of Financial Intermediation: Mea- ment, Washington, DC. surement Principles and Application to Five Corden, W. Max. 1990. "Strategic Trade Policy: African Countries." PRE Working Paper 421. How New? How Sensible?" PRE Working World Bank, Country Economics Department, Paper 396. World Bank, Country Economics Washington, DC. Department, Washington, DC. Chhibber, Ajay, and Nemat Shafik. 1990. "Does Cox, Donald, and Emmanuel Jimenez. 1989. "Pri- Devaluation Hurt Private Investment? The In- vate Transfers and Public Policy in Developing donesianCase." PREWorkingPaper418. World Countries: A CaseStudyforPeru." PRE Working Bank, Office of the Vice President, Develop- Paper 345. World Bank, Country Economics ment Economics, Washington, DC. Department, Washington, DC. Chhibber, Ajay, and Nemat Shafik. 1990. "Ex- Dailami, Mansoor. 1989. "Policy Changes that change Reform, Parallel Markets and Inflation Encourage Private Business Investment in Co- in Africa: The Case of Ghana." PRE Working lombia." PRE Working Paper 266. World Bank, Paper 427. World Bank, Office of the Vice Presi- Country Economics Department, Washington, dent, Development Economics, Washington, DC. DC. Dailami, Mansoor. 1990. "Financial Policy and Choe,Boum-Jong. 1990. "CommodityPrice Fore- Corporate Investment in Imperfect Capital casts and Futures Prices." PRE Working Paper Markets: The Case of Korea." PRE Working 436. World Bank, International Economics De- Paper 409. World Bank, Country Economics partment, Washington, DC. Department, Washington, DC. Choe, Boum-Jong. 1990. "Rational Expectations Dailami, Mansoor, and Michael Walton. 1989. and Commodity Price Forecasts." PRE Work- "Private Investment, Government Policy, and ing Paper 435. World Bank, International Eco- Foreign Capital in Zimbabwe." PRE Working nomics Department, Washington, DC. Paper 248. World Bank, Country Eccnomics Claessens, Stijn, and Ishac Diwan. 1990. "Meth- Department, Washington, DC. odological Issues in Evaluating Debt-Reducing Datt, Gaurav, and Martin Ravallion. 1990. "Re- Deals." PRE Working Paper 408. World Bank, gional Disparities, Targeting, and Poverty in International Economics Department, Wash- India." PRE Working Paper 375. World Bank, ington, DC. Agriculture and Rural Development Depart- Claessens,Stijn, and Sweder van Wijnbergen. 1990. ment, Washington, DC. "An Option-Pricing Approach to Secondary de Melo, Jaime, and Sherman Robinson. 1990. 68 'Troductivity and Externalities: Models of Ex- Theory and Evidence." PRE Working Paper port-Led Growth." PRE Working Paper 387. 343. World Bank, Country Economics Depart- World Bank, Country Economics Department, ment, Washington, DC. Washington, DC. Ehdaie, Jaber. 1990. "An Econometric Method for de Melo, Jaime, and L. Alan Winters. 1990. "Do Estimating the Tax Elasticity and the Impact on Exporters Gain from Voluntary Export Re- Revenues of Discretionary Tax Measures (Ap- straints?" PRE Working Paper 326. World plied to Malawi and Mauritius)." PRE Working Bank, Country Economics Department, Wash- Paper 334. World Bank, Country Economics ington, DC. Department, Washington, DC. de Melo, Jaime, and L. Alan Winters. 1990. "Vol- Eichengreen, Barry, and Richard Portes. 1989. untary Export Restraints and Resource Alloca- "Dealing with Debt: The 1930s and the 1980s." tion in Exporting Countries." 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"Risk- Washington, DC. Adjusted Ratesof Return for Project Appraisal." Erzan, Refik, and Peter Svedberg. 1989. 'Trotec- PRE Working Paper 290. World Bank, Agricul- tion Facing Exports from Sub-Saharan Africa in ture and Rural Development Department, the EEC, Japan, and the United States." PRE Washington, DC. Working Paper 320. World Bank, International Dornbusch, Rudiger, and Sebastian Edwards. Economics Department, Washington, DC. 1989. "The Macroeconomics of Populism in Erzan, Refik, and Alexander Yeats. 1990. "Tariff Latin America." PRE WorkingPaper316. World Valuation Bases and Trade Among Developing Bank, Country Economics Department, Wash- Countries... Do Developing Countries Dis- ington, DC. criminate Against Their Own Trade?" PRE Drabek, Zdenek, and Andrzej Olechowski. 1989. Working Paper 371. World Bank, International "Price and Quality Competitiveness of Socialist Economics Department, Washington, DC. Countries' Exports." PRE Working Paper 317. Ettori, Francois. 1990. "India: Protection Struc- World Bank, Asia Regional Office, Washington, ture and Competitiveness of Industry." PRE DC. Working Paper 433. World Bank, Asia Regional Easterly, William. 1989. "Policy Distortions, Size Office, Washington, DC. of Government, and Growth." PRE Working Faini, Riccardo, Jaime de Melo, Abdel Senhadji- Paper 344. World Bank, Country Economics Semlali, and Julie Stanton. 1990. "Growth- Department, Washington, DC. Oriented Adjustment Programs: A Statistical Easterly, William, and Patrick Honohan. 1990. Analysis." PRE Working Paper 426. World "Financial Sector Policy in Thailand: A Macro- Bank, Country Economics Department, Wash- economic Perspective." PRE Working Paper ington, DC. 440. World Bank, Country Economics Depart- Fardoust,Shahrokh, and AshokDhareshwar. 1990. ment, Washington, DC. "Long-Term Outlook for the World Economy: Easterly, William, E.C. Hwa, Piyabha Kongsamut, Issues and Projections for the 1990s." PRE and Jan Zizek. 1990. "Modeling the Macroeco- Working Paper 372. World Bank, International nomic Requirements of Policy Reform." PRE Economics Department, Washington, DC. Working Paper 417. World Bank, Country Eco- Feder, Gershon, and Monika Huppi. 1989. "The nomics Department, Washington, DC. Role of Groups and Credit Cooperatives in Ru- Easterly,WilliamR., and Deborah L. Wetzel. 1989. ral Lending." PRE Working Paper 284. World "Policy Determinants of Growth: Survey of Bank, Agriculture and Rural Development De- 69 partment, Washington, DC. International Economics Department, Wash- Findlay, Ronald. 1989. "Is the New Political ington, DC. Economy Relevant to Developing Countries?" Gray, Cheryl W. 1989. "Issues in Income Tax PRE Working Paper 292. World Bank, Country Reform in Developing Countries." PRE Work- Economics Department, Washington, DC. ing Paper 267. World Bank, Office of the Vice Finger, J. Michael. 1990. 'The GATT as Interna- President, Development Economics, Washing- tional Discipline Over Trade Restrictions: A ton, DC. Public Choice Approach." PRE Working Paper Gray, Cheryl W. 1989. "Legal Process and Eco- 402. World Bank, Country Economics Depart- nomic Development: A Case Study of Indone- ment, Washington, DC. sia." PRE Working Paper 350. World Bank, Finger, J. Michael, and Tracy Murray. 1990. "Po- Office of the Vice President, Development Eco- licing Unfair Imports: The U.S. Example." PRE nomics, Washington, DC. Working Paper 401. World Bank, Country Eco- Gray,Cheryl W., Lynn S. Khadiagala, and Richard nomics Department, Washington, DC. J. Moore. 1990. "Institutional Development Fischer, Stanley, and Vinod Thomas. 1990. "Poli- Work in the Bank: A Review of 84 Bank Projects." cies for Economic Development." PRE Working PRE Working Paper 437. World Bank, Office of Paper 459. 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A Challenge for the World Bank." PRE Work- 1990. "Effective Incentive in India's Agricul- ingPaper407. World Bank, Country Economics ture: Cotton, Groundnuts, Wheat, and Rice." Department, Washington, DC. PRE Working Paper 332. World Bank, Country Gelb, Alan, and Silvia Sagari. 1990. "Trade in Economics Department, Washington, DC. Banking Services: Issues for Multilateral Nego- Haddad, Lawrence, and Ravi Kanbur. 1989. "How tiations." PREWorkingPaper381. World Bank, Serious is the Neglect of ltrahousehold In- Country Economics Department, Washington, equality?" PRE Working Paper 296. World DC. Bank, Office of the Research Administrator, Ghura, Dhaneshwar. 1990. "How Commodity Washington, DC. Prices Respond to Macroeconomic News." PRE Haddad, Lawrence, and Ravi Kanbur. 1990. "Are Working Paper 354. World Bank, International Better-off Households More Unequal or Less Economics Department, Washington, DC. Unequal?" PRE Working Paper 373. World Gilbert, Christopher L. 1990. "The Rational Ex- Bank, Office of the Research Administrator, pectations Hypothesis in Models of Primary Washington, DC. Commodity Prices." PRE Working Paper 384. Haggard, Stephan, and Robert Kaufman. 1990. World Bank, International Economics Depart- "The Political Economy of Inflation and ment, Washington, DC. StablilizationinMiddle-IncomeCountries." PRE Glewwe, Paul. 1990. "Improving Data on Poverty Working Paper 444. World Bank, Country Eco- in the Third World: The World Bank's Living nomics Department, Washington, DC. Standards MeasurementStudy." PREWorking Hajivassiliou, V. A. 1989. "Do the Secondary Paper 416. World Bank, Population and Human Markets Believe in Life After Debt?" PRE Work- Resources Department, Washington, DC. ing Paper 252. World Bank, International Eco- Goto, Junichi. 1990. "A Formal Estimation of the nomics Department, Washington, DC. Effect of the MFA on Clothing Exports from Hansen, Bent. 1989. "Unemployment, Migration, LDCs." PRE Working Paper 455. World Bank, and Wages in Turkey, 1962-85." PRE Working 70 Paper 230. World Bank, Washington, DC. Working Paper 380. World Bank, Infrastructure Hayes, Richard, Thierry Mertens, Geraldine and Urban Development Department, Wash- Lockett, and Laura Rodrigues. 1989. "Causesof ington, DC. Adult Deaths in Developing Countries: A Re- Humphreys, Charles,and John Underwood. 1989. view of Data and Methods." PRE Working "The External Debt Difficulties of Low Income Paper 246. World Bank, Population and Human Africa." PRE Working Paper 255. World Bank, Resources Department, Washington, DC. International Economics Department, Wash- Hazell, Peter B., and Steven Haggblade. 1990. ington, DC. "Rural-Urban Growth Linkages in India." PRE Husain, Ishrat, and Saumya Mitra. 1989. "Future Working Paper 430. World Bank, Agriculture Financing Needs of the Highly Indebted Coun- and Rural Development Department, Washing- tries." PRE Working Paper 254. World Bank, ton, DC. International Economics Department, Wash- Hazell, Peter, Mauricio Jaramillo, and Amy irgton, DC. Williamson. 1989. "How HasInstability inWorld International Economics Department and Inter- Markets Affected Agricultural Export Products national Economic Analysis and Prospects Di- in Developing Countries?" PREWorking Paper vision. 1989. "Can the Industrial Countries 263. World Bank, Agriculture and Rural Devel- Return to Rapid Growth?" PRE Working Paper opment Department, Washington, DC. 209. World Bank, International Economics De- Heath, John Richard. 1990. "Enhancing the Con- partment, Washington, DC. tribution of Land Reform to Mexican Agricul- Jamshidi, Ahmad. 1989. "Evaluating Global zural Development." PRE Working Paper 285. Macroeconomic Models: A Case Study of World Bank, Agriculture and Rural Develop- MULTIMOD." PRE Working Paper 298. World ment Department, Washington, DC. Bank, International Economics Department, Heggie, Ian G., and Michael Quick. 1990. "A Washington, DC. Framework for Analyzing Financial Perfor- Jimenez, Emmanuel, Marlaine E. Lockheed, mance of the Transport Sector." PRE Working Eduardo Luna, and Vicente Paqueo. 1989. Paper 356. World Bank, Infrastructure and Ur- "School Effects and Costs for Private and Public ban Development Department, Washington, Schools in the Dominican Republic." PRE DC. Working Paper 288. World Bank, Country Eco- Hicks;Norman,and MichelVaugeois. 1990. "How nomics Department, Washington, DC. Good (or Bad) are Country Projections?" PRE Keith,Sherry. 1989. "ImprovingSupportServices Working Paper 415. World Bank, Strategic for Rural Schools: A Management Perspective." Planning and Review Der: iment, Washing- PRE Working Paper 302. World Bank, Country ton, DC. Economics Department, Washington, DC. Honohan, Patrick. 1990. "Monetary Coopeiation Khadr, Ali, and Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel. 1989. "A in the CFA Zone." PRE Working Paper 389. FrameworkforMacroeconomicConsistencyfor World Bank, Country Economics Department, Zimbabwe." PRE Working Paper 310. World Washington, DC. Bank, Country Economics Department, Wash- Honohan, Patrick. 1990. "Price and Monetary ington, DC. Convergence in Currency Unions: The Franc Khadr, Ali, and Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel. 1989. "A and Rand Zones." PRE Working Paper 390. Method for Macroeconomic Consistency in World Bank, Country Economics Department, Current and Constant Prices." PRE Working Washington, DC. Paper 306. World Bank, International Econom- Howard, L.M. 1990. "Supporting Safe Mother- ics Department, Washington, DC. hood: A Review of Financial Trends Full Re- Khandker, Shahidur R. 1989. "Improving Rural port." PRE Working Paper 413. World Bank, Wagesinindia." PREWorkingPaper276. World Population and Human Resources Department, Bank, Population and Human Resources De- Washington, DC. partment, Washington, DC. Howard, L.M. 1990. "Supporting Safe Mother- Khandker, Shahidur R., and HansP. Binswanger. hood: A Summary." 2RE Working Paper 414. 1989. "The Effect of Formal Credit on Output World Bank, Population and Human Resources and Fmployment in Dural India." PRE Working Department, Washington, DC. Paper 277. World Bank, Population and Human Huff, Lee W., and Louis S. Thompson. 1990. Resources Department, Washington, DC. "Techniques for Railway Restructuring." PRE Khan,M.Shahbaz. 1990. "Relative PriceChanges 71 and the Growth of the Public Sector." PRE tutional Analysis." PRE Working Paper 419. Working Paper 23. World Bank, Washington, World Bank, Country Economics Department, DC. Washington, DC. Kiguel, Miguel A., and Nissan Liviatan. 1989. Lixondo, Jose Saul. 1989. "Overvalued and Un- "The Old and the New in Heterodox Stabiliza- dervalued Exchange Rates in an Equilibrium tion Programs: Lessons from the 1960s and the Optimizing Model." PRE Working Paper 223. 1980s." PRE Working Paper 323. World Bank, World Bank, Country Economics Department, Country Economics Department, Washington, Washington, DC. DC. Lockheed, Marlaine E., and Nicholas T. Longford. Kiguel, Miguel A., and Nissan Liviatan. 1990. 1989. "A Multi-Level Model of School Effective- "Some Implications of Policy Games for High ness in a Developing Country." PRE Working Inflation Economies." PRE Working Paper 379. Paper 242. World Bank, Population and Human World Bank, Country Economics Department, Resources Department, Washington, DC. Washington, DC. Lopez, Ramon E., and Luis A. Riveros. 1989. Kiguel, Miguel A., and Pablo Andres Neumeyer. "Macroeconomic Adjustment and the Labor 1989. 'Inflation and Seigniorage in Argentina." Market in Four Latin American Countries." PRE PRE Working Paper 289. World Bank, Country Working Paper 335. World Bank, Country Eco- Economics Department, Washington, DC. nomics Department, Washington, DC. Kikeri, Sunita. 1990. "Bank Lending for Divesti- Lynn, Robert, and F. Desmond McCarthy. 1989. ture: A Review of Experiences." PRE Working "Recent Economic Performance of Developing Paper 338. World Bank, Country Economics Countries." PRE Working Paper 228. World Department, Washington, DC. Bank, International Economics Department, Kranton, Rachel E. 1990. "Pricing, Cost Recovery, Washington, DC. and Production Efficiency in Transport: A Cri- Malpezzi, Stephen, A. Graham Tipple, and Ken- tique." PRE Working Paper 445. World Bank, neth G. Willis. 1990. "Cost and Benefits of Rent Infrastructure and UrbanDevelopmentDepart- Control in Kumasi, Ghana." PRE Working Pa- ment, Washington, DC. per 365. World Bank, Infrastructure and Urban Laird, Samuel, and Alexander J. Yeats. 1990. Development Department, Washington, DC. "Two Sources of Bias in Standard Partial Equi- Marshall,Jorge, and KlausSchmidt-Hebbel. 1989. librium Trade Models." PRE Working Paper "Economic and Policy Determinants of Public 374. World Bank, International Economics De- Sector Deficits." PRE WorkingPaper321. World partment, Washington, DC. Bank, Country Economics Department, Wash- Larrain, Mauricio. 1989. "How the 1981-83 Chil- ington, DC. ean Banking Crisis was Handled." PRE Work- Masuoka, Toshiya. 1990. "Asset and Liability ing Paper 300. World Bank, Office of the Vice Management in the Developing Countries: President, Development Economics, Washing- Modem Financial Techniques - A Primer." ton, DC. PRE Working Paper 454. World Bank, Office of Larson, Donald F. 1990. "The Indonesian Veg- the Vice President, Development Economics, etable Oils Sector: Modeling the Impact of Policy Washington, DC. Changes." PRE Working Paper 382. World Mayer, Collin. 1989. "Myths of the West: Lessons Bank, International Economics Department, from Developed Countries for Development Washington, DC. Finance." PRE Working Paper 301. World Lee, Kyu Sik, and Alex Anas. 1989. "Manufactur- Bank, Office of the Vice President, Develop- ers' Responses to Infrastructure Deficiencies in ment Economics, Washington, DC. Nigeria." PRE WorkingPaper325. World Bank, Mayo, Stephen K., and James I. Stein. 1990. Infrastructure and Urban Development Depart- "Housing and Labor Market Distortions in Po- ment, Washington, DC. land: Linkages and Policy Implicc,S.ons." PRE Leiderman, Leonardo, and Nissan Liviatan. 1989. Working Paper 361. World Bank, Ini-structure "Macroeconomic Performance Beforeand After and Urban Development Department, Wash- Disinflation in Israel." PRE Working Paper 311. ington, DC. World Bank, Country Economics Department, McAleese, Dermot, and F. Desmond McCarthy. Washington, DC. 1989. "Adjustment and External Shocks in Ire- Levy, Brian. 1990. "The Design and Sequencingof land." PRE Working Paper 262. World Bank, Trade and Investment Policy Reform: An Insti- International Economics Department, Wash- 72 ington, DC. ics Department, Washington, DC. McCleary, William. 1989. "Earmarking Govern- Oks, Daniel. 1990. "Wealth Effects of Voluntary ment Revenues: Does It Work?" PRE Working Debt Reduction in Latin America." PRE Work- Paper 322. World Bank, Country Economics ing Paper 391. World Bank, International Eco- Department, Washington, DC. nomics Department, Washington, DC. Messerlin, Patrick A. 1990. "Antidumping Regu- Openshaw, Keith, and Charles Feinstein. 1989. lations or Procartel Law? The EC Chemical "Fuelwood Stumpage: Financing Renewable Cases." PRE Working Paper 397. World Bank, Energy for the World'sOther Half." PRE Work- International Economics Department, Wash- ing Paper 270. World Bank, Industry and Energy ington, DC. Department, Washington, DC. Moock, Peter, Philip Musgrove, and Morton Oum, Tae H., W.G. Waters, II, and Jong Say Yong. Stelcner. 1989. "Education and Earnings in 1990. "A Survcy of Recent Estimates of Price Peru's Informal Nonfarm Family Enterprise." Elasticities of Demand for Transport." PRE PRE Working Paper 236. World Bank, Popula- Working Paper 359. World Eank, InfrAstructure tion and Human Resources Department, Wash- and Urban Development Department, Wash- ington, DC. ington, DC. Mundlak, Yair, and Donald F. Larson. 1990. "On Ozler,Sule. 1990. "The Evolutionof CreditTerms: the Relevance of World Agriculture Prices." An Empirical Study of Commercial Bank Lend- PRE Working Paper 383. World Bank, Interna- ing to Developing Countries." PRE Working tional Economics Department, Washington, DC. Paper 355. World Bank, International Economics Mwabu, Germano. 1990. "Financing Health Ser- Department, Washington, DC. vices in Africa: An Assessment of Alternative Palaskas, Theodosios, and Panos Varangis. 1989. Approaches." PRE Working Paper 457. World "Primary Commodity Prices and Macroeco- Bank, Population and Human Resources De- nomic Variables: A Long-Run Relationship." partment, Washington, DC. PRE Working Paper 314. World Bank, Interna- Nellis, John. 1989. 'Tublic Enterprise Reform in tional Economics Department,Washington, DC. Adjustment Lending." PRE Working Paper Panagariya, Arvind. 1990. "How Should Tariffs 233. World Bank, Country Economics Depart- be Structured?" PRE Working Paper353. World ment, Washington, DC. Bank, Country Economics Department, Wash- Nogues,Julio. 1989. "The Choice Between Unilat- ington, DC. eral and Multilateral Trade Liberalization Strat- Panagariya, Arvind. 1990. "Input Tariffs and egies." PRE Working Paper 239. World Bank, Duty Drawbacks in the Design of Tariff Re- International Economics Department, Wash- form." PRE Working Paper 336. World Bank, ington, DC. Country Economics Department, Washington, Nogues, Julio. 1990. "Notes on Patents, Distor- DC. tions, and Development." PRE Working Paper Paul, Samuel. 1989. "Institutional Reforms in 315. World Bank, International Economics De- Sector Adjustment Operations." PRE Working partment, Washington, DC. Paper 227. World Bank, Country Economics Nunberg, Barbara, and John Nellis. 1990. "Civil Department, Washington, DC. Service Reform and the World Bank." PRE Paul, Samuel. 1990. "Institutional Development Working Paper 422. World Bank, Country Eco- in World Bank Projects: A Cross-Sectional Re- nomics Department, Washington, DC. view." PRE Working Paper 392. World Bank, O'Mara, Gerald T. 1990. "Making Bank Irrigation Country Economics Department, Washington, Irvestments More Sustainable." PRE Working DC. Paper 420. World Bank, Agriculture and Rural Paul, Samuel, David Steedman, and Francis X. Development Department, Washington, DC. Sutton. 1989. "Building Capability for Policy Occhiolini, Michael. 1990. "Debt-for-Nature Analysis." PRE Working Paper 220. World Swaps." PRE Working Paper 393. World Bank, Bank, Country Economics Department, Wash- International Economics Department, Wash- ington, DC. ington, DC. Peters, Hans Jurgen. 1990. "India's Growing Oks, Daniel. 1990. "Portfolio Effects of Debt- Conflict between Trade and Transport: Issues Equity Swaps and Debt Exchanges with Some and Options." PRE Working Paper 346. World Applications to Latin America." PRE Working Bank, Infrastructure and Urban Development Paper 450. World Bank, International Econom- Department, Washington, DC. 73 Pindyck, Robert S. 1989. "Irreversibility, Uncer- Rural Development Department, Washington, tainty, and Investment." PRE Working Paper DC. 294. World Bank, Country Economics Depart- Reisen, Helmut. 1989. "Public Debt, North and ment, Washington, DC. South." PRE Working Paper 253. World Bank, Plusquellec, Herve. 1989. "Two Irrigation Sys- International Economics Department, Wash- tems in Colombia: Their Performance and ington, DC. Transferof Management to Users' Associations." Renaud, Bertrand. 1990. "Compounding Finan- PRE Working Paper 264. World Bank, Agri- cial Repression with Rigid Urban Regulations: culture and Rural Development Department, Lessons of the Korea Housing Market." PRE Washington, DC. Working Paper 360. World Bank, Infrastructure Polizatto, Vincent P. 1990. "Prudential Regula- and Urban Development Department, Wash- tion and Banking Supervision: Building an ington, DC. Institutional Framework for Banks." PRE Riveros, Luis A. 1990. "Chile's Labor Markets in Working Paper 340. World Bank, Office of the an Era of Adjustment." PRE Working Paper Vice President, Development Economics, 404. World Bank, Country Economics Depart- Washington, DC. ment, Washington, DC. Poole, Peter. 1989. "Developing a Partnership of Riveros, Luis A., and Carlos E. Sanchez. 1990. Indigenous Peoples, Conservationists, and Land "Argentina's Labor Markets in an Era of Adjust- Use Planners in Latin America." PRE Working ment." PRE Working Paper 386. World Bank, Paper 245. World Bank, Environment Depart- Country Economics Department, Washington, ment, Washington, DC. DC. Population and Human Resources Department. Rodriguez, Carlos A. 1989. "The External Effects 1989. "Population, Health and Nutrition: FY88 of Public Sector Deficits." PRE Working Paper Annual Sector Review." PRE Working Paper 299. World Bank, Country Economics Depart- 273. World Bank, Population and Human Re- ment, Washington, DC. sources Department, Washington, DC. Rodriguez, Carlos A. 1989. "Macroeconomic Qian, Ying. 1990. "Application of Flexible Func- Policies for Structural Adjustment." PRE Work- tional Forms to Substitutability among Metals ing Paper 247. World Bank,CountryEconomics in U.S. Industries." PRE Working Paper 357. Department, Washington, DC. World Bank, International Economics Depart- Romer, Paul M. 1989. "What Determines the Rate ment, Washington, DC. of Growth and Technological Change?" PRE Qian, Ying. 1990. "Do Steei Prices Move To- Working Paper 279. World Bank, Country Eco- gether? A Cointegration Test." PRE Working nomics Department, Washington, DC. Paper453. World Bank, InternationalEconomics Sai, F. T., and K. Newman. 1989. "Ethical Ap- Department, Washington, DC. proaches to Family Planning in Africa." PRE Rajaram, Anand. 1989. "Inflation and the Com- Working Paper 324. World Bank, Population pany Tax Base Methods to Minimize Inflation- and Human Resources Department, Washing- Induced Distortions." PRE Working Paper 278. ton, DC. World Bank, Country Economics Department, Saito, Katrine A., and C. Jean Weidemann. 1990. Washington, DC. "Agricultural Extension for Women Farmers in Ravallion, Martin. 1989. "Is Undernutrition Re- Africa." PRE Working Paper 398. World Bank, sponsive to Changes in Incomes?" PRE Work- Population and Human Resources Department, ing Paper 303. World Bank, Agriculture and Washington, DC. Rural Development Department, Washington, Salmen, Lawrence F. 1990. "Institutional Dimen- DC. sions of Poverty Reduction." PRE Working Ravallion, Martin, and Monika Huppi. 1989. Paper 411. World Bank, Country Economics "Poverty and Undernutritior in Indonesia dur- Department, Washington, DC. ing the 1980s." PRE Working Paper 286. World Salmen, Lawrence F., and A. Paige Eaves. 1989. Bank, Agriculture and Rural Development De- "World Bank Work with Non-Governmental partment, Washington, DC. Organizations." PRE WorkingPaper305. World Ravallion, Martin, and Dominique van de Walle. Bank, Country Economics Department, Wash- 1989. "Cost-of-Living Differences between Ur- ington, DC. ban and Rural Areas in Indonesia." PRE Work- Schjelderup, Guttorm. 1990. "Reforming State ing Paper 341. World Bank, Agriculture and Enterprises in Socialist Economies: Guidelines 74 for Leasing Them to Entrepreneurs." PRE International Lending." PRE Working Paper Working Paper 368. World Bank, Country Eco- 394. World Bank, International Economics De- nomics Department, Washington, DC. partment, Washington, DC. Schultz, T. Paul. 1989. "Women's Changing Par- Stremiau, John. 1990. "After the Cold War: Secu- ticipation in the Labor Force: A World Perspec- rity for Development." PRE Working Paper tive." PRE Working Paper 272. World Bank, 377. World Bank, Strategic Planning and Re- Population and Human Resources Department, view Department, Washington, DC. Washington, DC. Sundaravej, Tipsuda, and Prasarn Trairatvorakul. Serven, Luis, and Andr6s Solimano. 1989. "Pri- 1989. "Experiencesof Financial Distress inThai- vate Investment and Macroeconomic Adjust- land." PRE Working Paper 283. World Bank, ment: An Overview." PRE Working Paper 339. Office of the Vice President, Development Eco- World Bank, Country Economics Department, nomics, Washington, DC. Washington, DC. Takeuchi, Kenji. 1990. "Does Japanese Direct Shafik, Nemat. 1990. "Modeling Investment Be- Foreign Investment Promote Japanese Imports havior in Developing Countries: An Applica- from Developing Countries?" PRE Working tion to Egypt." PRE Working Paper 452. World Paper 458. World Bank, International Econom- Bank, International Economics Department, ics Department, Washington, DC. Washington, DC. Teijeiro, Mario 0. 1989. "Central Bank Losses: Shah, Anwar, and Joel Slemrod. 1990. "Tax Origins, Conceptual Issues, and Measurement Sensitivity of Foreign Direct Investment: An Problems." PRE Working Paper 293. World Empirical Assessment." PRE Working Paper Bank, Country Economics Department, Wash- 434. World Bank, Country Economics Depart- ington, DC. ment, Washington, DC. Terrell, Katherine, and Jan Svejnar. 1990. "How Shipton, Parker. 1990. "How Gambians Save - Industry-Labor Relations and Government and What Their Strategies Imply for Interna- Policies Affect Senegal's Economic Perfor- tional Aid." PRE Working Paper 395. World mance." PRE Working Paper 271. World Bank, Bank, Agriculture and Rural Development De- Country Economics Department, Washington, partment, Washington, DC. DC. Shirley, Mary M. 1989. "Improving Public Enter- Thomas, Vinod. 1989. "Developing Country Ex- prise Performance: Lessons from South Korea." perience in Trade Reform." PRE Working Paper PRE Working Paper 312. World Bank, Country 295. World Bank, Country Economics Depart- Economics Department, Washington, DC. ment, Washington, DC. Silverberg, Stanley C. 1990. "The Savings and Tybout,JamesR. 1990. "Making Noisy Data Sing* Loan Problem in the United States." PRE Work- A Micro Approach to Measuring Industrial Ef- ing Paper 351. World Bank, Office of the Vice ficiency." PRE Working Paper 327. World President, Development Economics, Washing- Bank, Country Economics Department, Wash- ton, DC. ington, DC. Solimano, Andrds. 1989. "Inflation and the Costs van Wijnbergen, Sweder. 1989. "Cash Debt of Stabilization: Country Experiences, Concep- Buybacks and the Insurance Valueof Reserves." tual Issues, and Policy Lessons." PRE Working PRE Working Paper 256. World Bank, Latin Paper 226. World Bank, Country Economics America and the Caribbean Country Depart- Department, Washington, DC. ment, Washington, DC. Solimano, Andrds. 1990. "Macroeconomic Ad- van Wijnbergen, Sweder. 1989. "Growth, Exter- justment, Stabilization, and Growth in Reform- nal Debt, and theReal Exchange Ratein Mexico." ing Socialist Economies: Analytical and Policy PRE Working Paper 257. World Bank, Latin Issues." PRE Working Paper 399. World Bank, America and the Caribbean Country Depart- Country Economics Department, Washington, ment, Washington, DC. DC. van Wijnbergen, Sweder. 1990. "Mexico's Exter- Solimano, Andr6s. 1990. "Macroeconomic Con- nal Debt Restructuring in 1989-90." PRE straints for Medium-Term Growth and Distri- Working Paper424. World Bank, Latin America bution: A Model for Chile." PRE Working and theCaribbeanRegionalOffice, Washington, Paper 400. World Bank, Country Economics DC. Department, Washington, DC. van Wijnbergen, Sweder, Roberta Rocha, and Ritu Spiegel, Mark M. 1990. "Threshold Effects in Anand. 1989. "Inflation, External Debt and 75 Financial Sector Reform: A Quantitative Ap- in Development: Issues for Economic and Sec- proach to Consistent Fiscal Policy." PRE Work- tor Analysis." PRE Working Paper 269. World ingPaper261. World Bank, Latin Americanand Bank, Population and Human Resources De- the Caribbean Country Department, Washing- partment, Washington, DC. ton, DC. Yeats, Alexander. 1989. "Do African Countries Varangis, Panos, Takemasa Akiyama, and Elton Pay More for Imports? Yes." PRE Working Thigpen. 1990. "Recent Developments in Mar- Paper 265. World Bank, International Econom- keting and Pricing Systems for Agricultural ics Department, Washington, DC. Export Commodities in Sub-Saharan Africa." Yeats, Alexander J. 1989. "Do Caribbean Export- PRE Working Paper 431. World Bank, Interna- ers Pay Higher Freight Costs?" PRE Working tional EconomicsDepartment,Washington, DC. Paper244. World Bank,InternationalEconomics Varangis, Panos, and Ronald C. Duncan. 1990. Department, Washington, DC. 'The Response of Japanese and U.S. Steel Prices Yeats, Alexander J. 1989. "On the Accuracy of to Changes in the Yen-Dollar Exchange Rate." Economic Observations: Do Sub-Saharan Trade PRE Working Paper 367. World Bank, Interna- Statistics Mean Anything?" PRE Working Pa- tional EconomicsDepartment,Washington, DC. per 307. World Bank, International Economics Vodopivec, Milan. 1990. "How Redistribution Department, Washington, DC. Hurts Productivity in a Socialist Economy (Yu- goslavia)." PRE Working Paper 438. World H. Departmental working papers published Bank, Country Economics Department, Wash- in fiscal 1990 ington, DC. Wakeman-Linn, John. 1989. "Shortcomingsinthe Country Economics Department Market for Developing Country Debt." PRE Working Paper 268. World Bank, International Guillaumont, Patrick, and Silviane Guillaumont. Economics Department, Washington, DC. 1990. "Why and How to Stabilize Producer Walker, S. Tjip. 1990. "Innovative Agricultural Prices for Export Crops in Developing Coun- Extension for Women: A Case Study of tries." Trade Expansion Program Occasional Cameroon." PRE Working Paper 403. World Paper 6. World Bank, Washington, DC. Bank, Population and Human Resources De- Winters, Alan L. 1989. "How Developing Coun- partment, Washington, DC. tries Might Attempt to Influence the TalLs on Webb, Steven B., and Heidi S. Zia. 1989. "The Agriculture in the Uruguay Round of the Gen- Effect of Demographic Changes on Saving for eral Agreement of Tariffs and Trade." Trade Life-Cycle Motives in Developing Countries." Expansion ProgramOccasional Paper5. World PRE Working Paper 229. World Bank, Country Bank, Washington, DC. Economics Department, Washington, DC. Webb, Steven B., and Heidi S. Zia. 1989. "Borrow- Economic Development Institute ing, Resource Transfers, and External Shocks to Developing Countries: Historical and Adamolekun, L. 1989. "Symposium on Counterfactual." PRE Working Paper 235. Privatization in Africa." Economic Develop- World Bank, Country Economics Department, ment Institute Working Paper. World Bank, Washington, DC. Washington, DC. Whittington,Dale,DonaldT.Lauria,andXinming Brackett, N. 1990. "Energy Policy in Eleven Mu. 1990. "Paying for Urban Services: A Study African Countries." Economic Development of Water Vending and Willingness to Pay for Institute Working Paper. World Bank, Wash- Water in Onitsha, Nigeria." PRE Working Pa- ington, DC. per 363. World Bank, Infrastructure and Urban Carter, J. 1989. "Energie dans les Pays en Voie de Development Department, Washington, DC. Developpement." 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Economic Development Insti- Siddayao,C. 1989. "LesQuestionssurlaPolitique tute WorkingPaper. WorldBank,Washington, de l'Energie dans les Pays en Voie de DC. Developpement- Lecons Tirees de l'Experience Horch, H. 1989. "Securities Market Development de l'ASEAN." Economic Development Insti- in Korea." Economic Development Institute tute Working Paper. World Bank, Wash-ngton, Working Paper. World Bank, Washington, DC. DC. King, T. 1990. "Requirements for Participation in Siddayao,C. 1989. "PolitiquedesPrixet Utilisation the International Monetary Fund and the World Efficace de I'Energie." Economic Development Bank." Economic Development Institute Work- Institute Working Paper. World Bank, Wash- ing Paper. World Bank, Washington, DC. ington, DC. Kudat, A. 1990. "Participation of Womenin Rural Siddayao, C. 1989. "Revision de la Politique des Roads Maintenance in Sub-Saharan Africa." Prix du Petrole Asiatique." 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"Summary Data Sheets of 1987 Alavi, Hamid. 1990. "International Competitive- Power and Commercial Energy Statistics for 100 ness: Determinants and Indicators." Industry Developing Countries." Industry and Energy and Energy Department Working Paper, In- Department Working Paper, Energy Series 23. dustry Series 29. World Bank, Washington, DC. World Bank, Washington, DC. Barnes, D. 1990. "Population Growth, Wood Fitzgerald, K., D. Barnes, and McGranahan. 1990. Fuels, and Resource Problems in Sub-Saharan "Interfuel Substitution and Changes in the Way Africa." Industry and Energy Department Households Use Energy: The Case of Cooling Working Paper, Energy Series 26. World Bank, and Lighting Behavior in Urban Java." Industry Washington, DC. and Energy Department Working Paper, En- Bowring, Antonia. 1989. "Garments: Global ergy Series 29. World Bank, Washington, DC. Subsector Study." Industry and Energy Depart- Frischtak, Claudio R. 1989. "The Protection of ment Working Paper, Industry Series Paper 19. Intellectual Property Rights and Industrial World Bank, Washington, DC. Technology Development in Brazil." Industry Bowring, Antonia. 1990. "The U.S. Automotive and Energy Department Working Paper, Indus- Aftermarket: Opportunitiesand Constraints for try Series 13. World Bank, Washington, DC. Developing Country Suppliers." Industry and Frischtak,Claudio R. 1989. "Specialization, Tech- Energy Department Working Paper, Industry nical Changeand Competitiveness in the Brazil- Series Paper 39. World Bank, Washington, DC. ian Electronics Industry." Industry and Energy Butcher, D. 1990. "A Review of the Treatment of Department Working Paper, Industry Series 15. Environmental Aspects of Bank Energy World Bank, Washington, DC. Projects." Industry and Energy Department Gaunt, John, and Neil J. Numark, with Achilles Working Paper, Energy Series 24. World Bank, Adamantiades. 1990. "Decommissioning of Washington, DC. Nuclear Power Facilities." Industry and Energy Coogan, Diane, and Hemamala Hettige. 1990. Department Working Paper, Energy Series 28. "Conditionality in Adjustment Lending FY80- World Bank, Washington, DC. 89: The ALCID Database." Industry and En- Industry and Energy Department, Industry De- ergy Department Working Paper, Industry Se- velopment Division. 1989. "FY89 SectorReview ries Paper 28. World Bank, Washington, DC. Industry, Trade and Finances." Industry and Cordukes, P.A. 1990. "A Review of Regulation of Energy Department Working Paper, Industry the Power Sectors in Developing Countries." Series 30. World Bank, Washington, DC. Industry and Energy Department Working Pa- Lachler, Ulrich. 1989. "Regional Integration and per, Energy Series 22. World Bank, Washing- Economic Development." Industry and Energy ton, DC. Department Working Paper, Industry Series 14. Dahlman, Carl. 1990. "Electronics Development World Bank, Washington, DC. Strategy: The Role of Government." Industry McKeough, Kay. 1990. "The Status of Liquified and Energy Department Working Paper, Indus- Natural Gas Worldwide." Industry and Energy 79 Department Working Paper, Energy Series 25. Department Working Paper, Industry Series 18. World Bank, Washington, DC. World Bank, Washington, DC. Mody, Ashoka, and Kamil Yilmaz. 1989. "Repu- Steel, William. 1990. "Ghana's Small Enterprise tation in Manufactured Goods Trade." Indus- Sector: Survey of Adjustment Response and try and Energy Department Working Paper, Constraints." Industry and Energy Department Industry Series 21. World Bank. Washington, WorkingPaper, IndustrySeries33. World Bank, DC. Washington, DC. Moore, E. A., and G. Smith. 1990. "Capital Expen- Steel, William F., and others. 1990. "The Design of ditures for Electric Power in the Developing Adjustment Lending for Industry: Review of Countries in the 1990s." Industry and Energy Current Practict.' Industry and Energy De- Department Working Paper, Energy Series 21. partment Working Paper, Industry Series 31. World Bank, Washington, DC. World Bank, Washington, DC. Morrow, Felicia. 1989. "Flowers: Global Subsector Teplitz-Sembitzky, Witold,and Gunter Schramm. Study." Industry and Energy Department 1989. "Woodfuel Supply and Environmental Working Paper, Industry Series 17. World Bank, Management." Industry and Energy Depart- Washington, DC. ment Working Paper, Energy Series 19. World Nagaoka, Sadao. 1990. "Cost Reduction, Product Bank, Washington, DC. Development and the Real Exchange Rate." In- Teplitz-Sembitzky, Witold, and G. Zieroth. 1990. dustry and Energy Department Working Paper, "The Malawi Charcoal Project - Experience and Industry Series 26. World Bank, Washington, Lessons." Industry and Energy Department DC. Working Paper, Energy Series 20. World Bank, Nagaoka, Sadao. 1990. "Investment, Productiv- Washington, DC. ity and Comparative Advantage." Industry Traiforos, Spyros, Achilles Adamantiades, and and EnergyDepartment WorkingPaper,Indus- Edwin Moore. 1990. "The Status of Nuclear try Series 25. World Bank, Washington, DC. Power Technology - An Update." Industry and Nagaoka, Sadao. 1990. "Overcoming Policy Energy Department Working Paper, Energy Endogeneity: Strategic Role for Domestic Com- Series 27. World Bank, Washington, DC. petition in Industrial Policy Reform." Industry Webster, Leila. 1989. "World Bank Lending for and Energy Department Working Paper, In- Smalland Medium Enterprises. Fifteen Years of dustry Series 27. World Bank, Washington, DC. Experience." Industry and Energy Department Nagaoka, Sadao, and Izak Atiyas. 1990. "Tighten- Working Paper, Industry Series 20. World Bank, ing the Soft Budget Constraint in Reforming Washington, DC. Socialist Economies." Industry and Energy De- Whitmore, Katherine, Sanjaya Iall, and Jung-Taik partment Working Paper, Industry Paper 35. Hyun. 1989. "Foreign Direct Investment From World Bank, Washington, DC. the Newly Industrialized Economies." Indus- Rhee, Yung Whee, Katharine Katterbach, and try and Energy Department Working Paper, Jeannette White. 1990. "Free Trade Zones, in Industry Series 22. World Bank, Washington, Export Strategies." Industry and Energy De- DC. partment Working Paper, Industry Series 36. World Bank, Washington, DC. Infrastructure and Urban Development Department Rhee, Yung Whee, and Christine Soulier. 1989. "Small Trading Companies and a Successful Buckley, R., B. Lipman, and T. Persaud. 1989. Export Response: Lessons From Hong Kong." "Mortgage Design Under Inflation and Real Industry and Energy Department Working Pa- Wage Uncertainty: The Use of a Dual Invest- per, Industry Series 16. World Bank, Washing- ment." Infrastructure and Urban Development ton, DC. Department Discussion Paper 62. World Bank, Rhee, Yung Whee, Kevin Young, and Eva Galvez. Washington, DC. 1990. "Export Finance in the Philippines: Op- Carlsson, G., and K. Hedman. 1990. "A System- portunities and Constraints for Developing atic Approach to Road Safety in Develoning Country Suppliers." Industry and Energy De- Countries." Infrastructure and Urban Develop- partment Working Paper, Industry Series 38. ment Department Technical Report 63. World World Bank, Washington, DC. Bank, Washington, DC. Sananikone, Ousa. 1989. "The Shrimp Industry: Cestti, R. 1989. "Water Resources: Problems and Global Subsector Study." Industry and Energy Issues for the Water Supply and Sanitation Sec- 80 tor." Infrastructure and Urban Development Developing Countries: Health Effects and Department Issues Paper. World Bank, Wash- Technical Solutions." UNDP-World Bank Wa- ington, DC. ter and Sanitation Program Discussion Paper 2. Evans, H. 1990. "Rural Urban Linkages & Struc- World Bank, Washington, DC. tural Transformation." Infrastructure and Ur- Sinclair, J., and others. 1989. "Technical Note on ban Development Department Discussion Paper Refrigerated Containers." Infrastructure and 71. World Bank, Washington, DC. Urban Development Department Technical Pa- Evans, Philip, Richard Pollard, and Deepa per 4. World Bank, Washington, DC. Narayan-Parker. 1990. "From Pilot to National University of Wales, College of Cardiff. 1989. Program: Rural Sanitation in Lesotho." UNDP- "The Management of Port Equipment Mainte- World Bank Water and Sanitation Program Dis- nance." Infrastructure and Urban Development cussion Paper 3. World Bank, Washington, DC. Department Technical Paper 57. World Bank, Kjellerup, Bent, William K. Journey, and Khawaja Washington, DC. M. Minnatullah. 1989. "The Tara Handpump: The Birth of a Star." UNDP-World Bank Water Population and Human Resources Department and Sanitation Program Discussion Paper 1. World Bank, Washington, DC. Brinkerhoff, Derick W., and Richard L. Hopkins. Kohon, J., and L. Thompson. 1989. "Institutional 1990. "Guidelines for Management and Sus- Reform In TRP: Case Study - Uruguayan Rail- tainability Assessment." PHREE Background ways." Infrastructure and Urban Development Paper Series 90/28. World Bank, Washington. Department Technical Paper 59. World Bank, DC. Washington, DC. Copple, Carol. "Education and Employment Re- Lauria, D., and D. Whittington. 1989. "Planning search and Policy Studies: Annotated Bibliog- in Squatter Settlements: An Interview with a raphy 1987-1990." PHREE Background Paper Community Leader." Infrastructure and Urban Series 90/26. World Bank, Washington, DC. DevelopmentDepartmentCaseStudy52. World Demsky, Terry. 1989. "Review of World Bank Bank, Washington, DC. Investments in Vocational Education and MacKnight, S., and others. 1989. "The Environ- Training for Commerce." PHREE Background mentally Sound Disposal of Dredged Materi- Paper Series 89/22. World Bank, Washington, als." Infrastructure and Urban Development DC. Department Technical Paper 54. World Bank, Englebert, Pierre, and Cheryl Kane. 1989. "Em- Washington, DC. pirical Studies on the Quality of Primary and Matras, H., and B. Renaud. 1989. "Structure and Secondary Education: An Annotated Bibliogra- Performance of the Housing Sector of the Cen- phy." PHREE Backgroud Paper Series 89/19. trally Planned Economies: USSR, Hungary, Po- World Bank, Washington, DC. land,GDRand Yugoslavia." Infrastructure and Fullan, Michael. 1989. "Implementing Educa- Urban Development Department Discussion tional Change: What We Know." PHREE Back- Paper 53. World Bank, Washington, DC. ground Paper Series 89/18. World Bank, Wash- McCommon, Carolyn, Dennis Warner, and David ington, DC. Yohalem. 1990. "Community Management of Galloway, Rae. 1989. "The Prevalence of Malnu- Rural Water Supply and Sanitation Services." trition and Parasites in School-Age Children: UNDP-World Bank Water and Sanitation Pro- An Annotated Bibliography." PHREE Back- gram Discussion Paper 4. World Bank, Wash- ground Paper Series 89/24. World Bank, Wash- ington, DC. ington, DC. Pachon, A., and F. Johansen. 1989. "Pricing and Greig, Frederick. 1989. "Enterprise Training in Regulatory Issues in Urban Transport." Infra- Developedand Developing Countries." PHREE structure and Urban Development Department Background Paper Series 89/21. World Bank, Discussion Paper 58. World Bank, Washington, Washington, DC. DC. King, Kenneth. 1990. "An Analysis of Relation- Quinet, E., and E. Bennethan. 1990. "Transport ships Among Education and Training Industry, Planning Methods." Infrastructure and Urban and the State." PHREE Background Paper Se- Development Department DiscussionPaper65. ries 90/27. World Bank, Washington, DC. World Bank, Washington, DC. Paxman, B., C. Denning, and A. Read. 1989. Shuval, Hillel I. 1990. "Wastewater Irrigation in "Analysis of Research on Textbook Availability 81 and Quality in Developing Countries." PHREE opment." SPR DiscussionPaper 1. World Bank, Background Paper Series 89/20. World Bank, Washington, DC. Washington, DC. Jun, Kwang W. 1990. "GlebalizAtion of Financial Population and Human Resources Department, Markets and Financing Development." SPR Education and Employment Division. 1990. Discussion Paper 6. World Bank, Washington, "Annual Operational Review: Fiscal 1989 Edu- DC. cation and Training." PHREE Background Pa- Nagle, William J., and Sanjoy Ghose. 1990. per Series 90/29R. World Bank, Washington, "Community Participation in World Bank Sup- DC. ported Projects." SPR Discussion Paper8. World Verspoor, Adriaan. 1990. "Accelerated Educa- Bank, Washington, DC. tional Development." PHREE Background Pa- Obidegwu, Chukwuma F. 1990. "Adjustment per Series 90/25. World Bank, Washington, DC. Programs and Economic Change in Sub-Saharan Wagner, Daniel. 1989. "In Support of Primary Africa." SPR Discussion Paper 7. World Bank, Schooling in Developing Countries: A New Washington, DC. Look at Traditional Indigenous Schools." Perez, Carlota. 1989. "Technical Change, Com- PHREE Background Paper Series 89/23. World petitive Restructuring, and Institutional Reform Bank, Washington, DC. in Developing Countries." SPR Discussion Pa- per 4. World Bank, Washington, DC. Strategic Planning and Review Department Schrenk, Martin. 1990. "The CMEA System of Trade and Payments: Today and Tomorrow." Bradford, Colin I., Jr. 1989. "The World Economy SPR Discussion Paper 5. World Bank, Wash- in the Mid-1990s: Alternative Patterns of Trade ington, DC. and Growth." SPR Discussion Paper 2. World Stremlau, John. 1989. "Security for Development Bank, Wasnington, DC. in a Post-Bipolar World." SPR Discussion Paper Colby, Michael E. 1989. "The Evolution of Para- 3. World Bank, Washington, DC. digmsof Environmental Management in Devel- 82