Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan 11. Short Term Plan (2019-2022) Considering the priorities for improvement and the capacity for implementation, the following actions are recommended to be undertaken in the short term, between 2019 and 2022. These actions should sit in addition to on-going and committed projects presented in chapter 6. Table 11-1 lists the recommended actions, and they are also mapped in Figure 11-1. An explanation for how the costs have been estimated is presented in chapter 14. Each item is described in more detail in sections 11.1 to 0. Table 11-1: List of short-term actions (2019-2022) Cost Area Cost Item Description (USD M) Short-term improvement in 12 Upgrade infrastructure. new facilities. Improve 5.0 public transport terminals management PT improvement Construct new public transport Infrastructure, Land purchase, Facilities, terminals at New Market & 7.0 Management Bahaddarhat PT interchange/bus stops. 20 Improve stop environment/facilities. Traffic 1.0 busiest stops management Civil works, Signal equipment, Traffic Improve 21 junctions along BRT management, pavement widening and pedestrian 26.6 corridor crossings Civil works, Signal equipment, Traffic Improve 28 junctions off BRT management, pavement widening and pedestrian 32.0 Road improvement corridor crossings Freight parking terminal, parking Freight parking terminal Parking ban, electronic 2.0 ban on Mooring Road booking. Land costs additional Port gate access Widening, signals, traffic management 0.5 improvement/control at 5 gates Footpath construction, 54.8Km in central areas and 10Km in non- Pavement, drainage and lighting 32.4 central areas SUTMP Page 164 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan Cost Area Cost Item Description (USD M) Specific parking control zones, designated spaces Parking Policy 0.5 and charges 8 locations to improve safety and vehicle speeds Formalise rail crossings 2.5 when crossing tracks Capacity development 0.5 Studies and technical Institutional development & Bus Equipment for traffic management 0.5 assistance industry reform Driving safety campaign 0.3 Support for bus industry reform 1.5 PT feasibility studies & design Line 1: CDA Avenue Corridor 6.0 Total 118.3 SUTMP Page 165 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan Figure 11-1: Map of short-term actions (2019-2022) SUTMP Page 166 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan 11.1 Public transport improvements 11.1.1 Improve 12 public transport terminals The construction of new PT terminals is scheduled for the medium term. In the short-term. the existing PT terminals should be improved within the physical constraints of the current location. These improvements include: • The operational organisation, including the demarcation of boarding locations and layover areas and improved scheduling • On-road stations provided for passing city-buses • Lighting and electric improvements • Seating improvements • Drainage improvements • Waiting and prayer facilities • Bathrooms • Ticketing booth • Signage to improve driver and passenger wayfinding, ideally presented in a manner which is sensitive to those with cognitive or visual impairments or who speak/read in a different language • Demarked and organised off-road layover facilities for buses between a long journey • Pedestrian crossing and footpath improvements in the vicinity • Minimise dark areas and improve natural surveillance where possible Such improvements should be carried out at the following locations: • City-bus terminals at Patenga, Kalurghat and Colonel Hat • Inter-district terminals at Kadamtali, GEC, AK Kahn, Station Rd, New Chandagon, Cinema Palace • Joint inter-district and city-bus terminals at: Oxygen, Alongkar Mor and Shaheed Boshiruzzaman Sq (New Bridge) 11.1.2 Construct new PT terminals at New Market & Bahaddarhat Two PT terminals should be reconstructed in the short term, including: SUTMP Page 167 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan • the reconstruction and expansion of the inter-district terminal at Bahaddarhat and the construction of a new PT terminal at New Market. Inter-district services which currently terminate at New Chandgaon should be changed to terminate at Bahaddarhat • Construction of a new PT terminal at New Market, adjacent to the railway station to provide a terminus for the large number of city-bus services that terminate in the city center 11.1.3 PT interchange/bus stop improvements A number of key junctions in the city are important interchange locations for passengers changing PT vehicle (Figure 4-16). A number of these key interchange hubs are located where major atrial roads cross CDA Avenue, for example Muradpur, GEC Circle or Sholashohor 2 No Gate. Facilities at these locations are minimal for PT passengers and provide little. In the short term the top 20 most important interchange locations should be upgraded by installing: • Identification of formal stops where buses must collect passengers from (and nowhere else) • Road markings to identify formal stops • Formal stops should feature raised platforms for more level loading, bus stop shelters, lighting, signage and wayfinding • Marked pedestrian crossings should allow safe pedestrian access to all formal stops Figure 11-2 provides an example of good bus stop design. Figure 11-3 and Figure 11-4 provide examples of bus stop and signage design. Bus shelters should be provided for protection from sun and rain – a key factor in improving the PT experience for users, particularly women and other vulnerable users. To further improve safety and passenger experience, LED lighting should also be included, ideally with solar panels to enable minimal upkeep and input. The bus shelters themselves have a typical width of 2m. SUTMP Page 168 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan Figure 11-2: Example features for bad and good bus stop design Source: EMBARQ India, 2014. Safe Access Manual Figure 49 Figure 11-3: Semi-enclosed stations in Bangkok Source: EMBARQ India, 2014. Safe Access Manual. P124 SUTMP Page 169 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan Figure 11-4: Example signage Source: Transport for London, 2017. Accessible bus stop design guidance Such improvements to PT interchanges should be made at the following sites: • Dewanhat • Muradpur • CEPZ • Noya Bazar • Kotwali • 2 No. Gate • Tigerpass • GEC Circle • Laldighir Par • Badamtoli Circle • Anderkilla • Agrabad Access Rd • Lal Chand Rd/Nabab Siraj Ud Daula Rd • Ispahani Circle • Arkan Rd/Nabab Siraj Ud Daula Rd SUTMP Page 170 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan • Katgar • Barik Bldg • Kaptai Rastar Matha • WASA Square • Customs 11.2 Road improvements 11.2.1 Improve 49 junctions A total of 49 junctions need to be upgraded in the short term based on the requirements set out in section 10.4. 21 of these junctions lie along the BRT corridor, therefore their upgrade is required to enable to facilitate the BRT construction. A further 28 junctions are located off the corridor. Example junction designs can be found in the pre-feasibility study titled D6b: Pre-Feasibility Roadway schemes that accompanies this report. SUTMP Page 171 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan 21 Junctions along BRT corridor 28 junctions off BRT corridor • Katgar • N1 / Chaktai Rd/New Bridge approach road Roundabout • MA Aziz Rd / CEPZ (Shaheed Boshiruzzaman Square) • MA Aziz Rd / Port Colony Rd (CPA) / Mooring • Zakir Hossain Rd-Pahartali College Rd (Wireless) Rd • Level railway crossing • Mooring Rd / Port Connecting Rd • Women College Circle • Mooring Rd / Port gate No. 3 • Dhaka Trunk Road / Port Connecting Road (Alongkar • Mooring Rd / Port gate No. 2 More) • Mooring Rd / Sheikh Mujib Rd (Barek • Dhaka Trunk Road from Port Connecting Road to Building) Dewanhat • Sheikh Mujib Rd / Agrabad Access Rd • Jubilee Road / Chaitana Goli (Golam Rasul Market) (Badamtoli) • Jubilee Rd / KC Dey Rd (Amtala) • Sheikh Mujib Rd / Dewanhat Overbridge • Panchlaish Rd / KB Fazlul Kader Rd/College Rd Ramps (Chawkbazaar) • CDA Ave .- Ambagan Rd / Md. Yusuf • College Rd / Chatteswari Rd / Lal Chand Rd ( (Chawk Chowdhury Rd (Tiger Pass) Bazaar Circle) • CDA Ave/ N1 (GEC Circle) • College Rd / Jamal Khan Rd / KB Abdus Sattar Rd ( Gani • CDA Ave / Mirzapul Rd (Muradpur) Bakery Circle • CDA Ave / N107: CTG Cox’s Bazaar Highway • Jamal Khan / Monmin Rd (Cheragi Pahar) / Arkan Rd / AG Road (Bahaddarhat at-grade) • Enayet Bazaar Rd / Jubilee Rd / Batali Rd (Enayet Bazaar (New Chandgaon?) Circle) • Station Road / Jubilee Road (New Market • Kapagola Rd / Nabab Siraj Ud Daula Rd (Chawk Bazaar) Circle) • Nabab Siraj Ud Daula Rd / Momin Rd / JM Sen Ave • Station Rd / Kadamtali Rd (Kadamtali CRB (Chittagong City Corporation Circle) • Terri Bazar Circle-JM Sen Avenue • N107 / Kaptai Rd • JM Sen Rd / Lal Dighi Par Rd • N107 / Kalurghat Industrial Area Access Road • Sagorika Road (C & B Circle) • Sarai Para • N107/Old Chandgaon Bazar • Adorsho Para Road/Tulatuli Rd (Baby Super Market) • N107: CTG Cox’s Bazaar Junction Highway/Bahaddarhat Bus Terminal • Rahman Nagar Road in front of Can Company • Salt Gola Crossing • Bayezid Bostami Circle • CDA Ave/Sholoshohor 2 No. Gate • Abdur Rab Road Junction opposite of BSRM Steel Meel Area • Oxygen Circle • Roufabad • Hashem Bazar/ Aturar Dipo • Hamjarbag • Sholashohor 1 no rail gate/ Mohammad Pur Road SUTMP Page 172 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan 11.2.2 Footpath construction An investment strategy has been developed for new and replacement footpaths in Chittagong in the short, medium and long-term. In total 140 Km of new and improved footpaths (on both sides of the road) are required. In the short-term footpath construction if focused on improvements that support the development of the BRT, and constructing footpaths along main roads where they do not currently exist: • 4 Km along CDA Avenue from WASA to Bahaddarhat • 2 Km in the vicinity of New Market, along Station Rd and Jubilee Road • 48.8 Km along roads in the central areas where no footpaths currently exist • 10 Km along roads outside of central areas where no footpaths currently exist 11.2.3 Parking Policy Chittagong has many narrow streets, especially in the city center. To ensure sufficient road space is provided for pedestrians’, public transport and the efficient flow of private vehicles, on-street parking should be heavily curtailed following the policy presented below. Parking facilities should instead be provided for in purpose-built off-street car park garages which charge parking fees. On-street parking should be controlled through space allocation, no-parking areas and parking charges. With the understanding that space for parking is a scarce commodity, it should be priced appropriately for the level of disturbance and difficulty which it imposes on other road users. Parking illegally should be fined, and on-street parking, even where designated, will be more expensive than off-street parking. • Areas where informal parking presents a challenge should be identified and designated as a Parking Control Zone (PCZ) by the government and these should be reviewed annually and/or in-line with departmental budgets. Parking within these zones should then be formalised through the provision of dedicated demarcated spaces, with charges applied. • On-street parking should be located a minimum of 100m from a junction • On-street parking charges for private vehicles to be introduced. Revenues collected from enforcement of on-street parking are to be used to pay for the management and enforcement of the system, and to support the function of public transport. The level of the charge should be reviewed annually and/or in line with official departmental budgets. • The presence of a PCZ and the charging structure should be clearly identifiable to motorists SUTMP Page 173 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan While formalising on-street parking will be necessary to improve traffic flow on certain routes, removing parking altogether will be necessary on others, particularly for corridors designated to support BRT or bus priority where the number of lanes available to general traffic might be reduced. Taking inspiration from parking management in Dhaka, it is proposed that this strategy should be carried out by a combination of CCC, CMP and BRTA. Subject to further review, CCC might implement the policy alongside CMP – CCC is to lease the operation of parking spaces to an external management company, whilst CMP should supervise and enforce that all parking is legal. BRTA’s role should be one of overarching management for the whole suite of schemes. 11.2.4 Formalise rail crossings Railway crossings should be reconstructed to a significantly higher standard, both for motorised traffic and pedestrians. Figure 11-5 demonstrates a suggested layout for a signalised full barrier crossing. Barriers can operate automatically or manually. In the first instance, it may be most appropriate to assign members of the civil traffic management team to operate the barriers, to avoid costly and complicated electrification of automatic barriers. Estimated costs presented in chapter 14 refer to a manually operated barrier, not an automatic one. Figure 11-5: Railway level crossing layout Source: http://orr.gov.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0016/2158/level_crossings_guidance.pdf SUTMP Page 174 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan In terms of the carriageway itself, in order to prevent damage to vehicles using the crossing etc, the approach and crossing itself should be as level as possible, and surfaced with concrete or tarmac to ensure longevity. The 8 locations are: • Bayazid Bostami Road, west of Oxygen • Bayazid Bostami Road, north of Sholashohor No 2 Gate • Hathazari Road, north of Muradpur • Zakir Hossain Road east of Abdul Hanman Rd • Zakir Hossain Road, Ispahani Crossing • Ambagan Road • Old Dewanhat Road • M.A. Aziz Road, south of Salt Gola 11.2.5 Truck parking terminal and parking ban on Mooring Road Mooring Road and M.A. Aziz Road, form part of the ‘spine’ corridor. Where this road passes by Port the available width is narrow while traffic volumes are high. The transport demand placed upon this road is high as it serves the high passenger flows towards CEPZ and trucks accessing the Port. The available road width is further constrained by the high numbers of trucks that park along Mooring Road while waiting to enter the Port (Figure 11-7). This removes a lane from general traffic. Figure 11-6: Trucks parking along Mooring Road SUTMP Page 175 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan It is proposed that a ‘satellite’ truck parking terminal be provided away from the port, allowing trucks to wait ‘off-street’ to remove the need for trucks to park outside the along Mooring Road and M.A. Aziz Road, for long periods of time. The Port will then manage the movement of vehicles to and from the port through an electronic booking system, preventing the influx of vehicles entering the port and bunching of vehicles leaving the port. The truck parking terminal should allow for an agglomeration of activities dealing with freight distribution, transportation and supporting services (human resources, maintenance and repair), speeding up registration process and optimising the flow of goods. A repair workshop is considered necessary to prevent on-road repairs of vehicles which reduces road capacity on the approach roads to the port and in Chittagong as a whole. The port should manage the movement of vehicles to and from the port as far as Faujdarhat, through the use of an electronic automatic booking system. This would optimise the flow of freight traffic by registering an approaching truck, instructing the driver to wait at the truck parking terminal and then call for them to be dispatched to the appropriate port gate during the correct time slot. This will enable trucks to depart the parking terminal only when called, so they can drive straight into the port without having to wait on the road side. It is proposed that this system would be supported by a truck management system, which would allow for monitoring of time spent within the port by trucks, and thus control congestion inside the port. Additionally, as considered in the PwC report38 a port community system should be developed, which would allow stakeholders involved in the delivery of cargo to track the status of cargo arrivals and deliveries. In addition to the above measures, two overflow yard sites have been recommended for development – New Mooring Overflow Container Yard and the Bay Container Terminal, reducing the need for vehicles to enter and cause congestion within the port. These will assist to reducing overall freight traffic congestion 11.2.6 Port gate access improvements Congestion is also caused by trucks entering and egressing from the 5 main Port gates along Mooring Road and M.A. Aziz Ra. The current design of these gates is insufficient to enable the efficient movement of trucks into and out of the port area. Right turning trucks can cause significant congestion. Improvements are required to widen the corner radiuses and where right turns are 38 PwC (2018) Chittagong Freight Traffic Flow Analysis Report. SUTMP Page 176 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan necessary to provide signals and a turning lane in the central reservation. There are 5 gates which need improvement are: • Port Gate 1 • Port Gate 2 • Port Gate 3 • Port Gate 4 • Port Gate 5 (Salt Gola) Figure 11-7: Port access improvements Parking ban along on Mooring Road, from Port Gate 1 to Salt Gola SUTMP Page 177 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan 11.3 Studies and technical advice The short-term measures for institutional development and bus industry include: • Capacity development for the primary implementing authorities; CDA, CCC and CMP in addition to BRTA and establishment of the Public Transport Authority. • Equipment and training for CMP to enhance traffic management capabilities • Safe driving campaign • Support for bus industry reform 11.3.1 Capacity development Section 10.2 advocates the development of CDA Avenue as a BRT corridor recognising the large number of public transport users within the corridor and the large number of services that access the corridor. A newly formed Public Transport Authority (PTA) will take a lead in developing the operational and contracting operations for these services seeking to maximise benefit, minimise impact and offer a smooth transition between the existing mode of operation to that of performance-based contracts. The detail of a restructuring plan will evolve as issues are identified and personalities established, however a high-level implementation plan is defined to give some anticipation of task requirement. The following tasks are earmarked for the preparatory phase for the BRT corridor (2019 – 2022): • Establish function and protocol of the existing SUTMP Co-ordinating Committee as an oversight and supervisory body • Define, agree and appoint the first phase posts to act within the new formed executive authority that will develop the bus reform process/BRT. • Develop and start to implement industry engagement/consultation plan • Define, agree and appoint the first phase posts to act within the new formed executive authority that will develop the bus reform process/BRT. • Define, analyse and consult on the forms of contract between authority and operators • Define, agree and appoint the second phase posts to act within the new formed executive authority that will develop the bus reform process/BRT. • Review and agree on the BRT Feasibility Study and its requirements for industry and institutional reform • Actively assist operating industry in understanding and acting upon reform SUTMP Page 178 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan • Develop and implement a social impact protection plan for those adversely affected by the reform The new authority, its funding and powers, must be established in law. In the short-term the board of the PTA will be formed by the executive order of the Government, this board will comprise the existing members of the STUMP coordination committee plus additional industry representatives. This board will oversee the activities and development of the PTA. The Governing Board shall be responsible for obtaining the approval of institutional set-up of the PTA (may be named as CTCA, alike DTCA in Dhaka). The board will work to get the staffing organogram of the authority approved under the revenue budget of GOB. 11.3.2 Equipment and training for CMP CMP needs to be further empowered to adequately control vehicle flows at junctions and enforce traffic rules such as no stopping in the vicinity of junctions, parking only in designated spaces, ensuring roadways are clear of market stalls. Capacity building can either be performed directly with the existing CMP officers, or a team of community police offers could be hired to assist with traffic management, following the model used in Dhaka. 11.3.3 Public awareness campaign CMP and BRTA should also work together to implement a public awareness campaign; with the intention of improving adherence to traffic laws amongst the general population. More targeted training could be carried out for groups such as bus drivers, with additional potential for carrying out gender training for bus staff as part of this. The public should be made aware through such a campaign that the local government plans to improve its enforcement of traffic law, and that they will be liable for sanction of some sort should they be found in breach. This should also encompass a ‘crack-down’ on eve-teasing and sexual harassment towards women aboard public buses, as this currently reduces women’s perceived and actual safety on board buses, significantly impacting their quality of life and also excluding a large potential market of passengers. An enforcement body of some sort (either through the existing police or other) SUTMP Page 179 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan 11.3.4 Support for bus industry reform Agglomeration within the bus sector is necessary in order to raise managerial capacity and improve access to finance. As Chittagong is blessed with some operators of a reasonable size and reasonable capability there is potential for agglomeration of operations facilitated by the implementing organisation and the representative bodies of the operators. The new companies should be registered in the office of the “Registrar of Joint Stock Companies”. There should be a formal institutional set up (organogram) of the proposed companies to be filled up with skilled professionals. The drivers and conductors must be employed by the company and they will have an appointment letter indicating their salary and other terms and conditions as per the decision of the Transport Authority. The PTA and government will need to assist this process, for example enabling these companies to gain the expertise of people experienced in business management. The government could also assist through the provision of soft loans to purchase vehicles, or training in operating procedures where appropriate. Existing owners might become shareholders in a limited liability company by exchanging their vehicles for shares to the market value of their vehicles. Owners could be given the choice of becoming employees of the new company, or investors taking no active part in its operations. But in either case they would receive a share of the company’s profit in the form of a dividend proportionate to the value of their shares. Even when vehicles are sold or scrapped, shareholdings would remain intact and the former owners would continue to receive dividends. It should also be possible to encourage the development of larger operating units by making it attractive for individuals or organizations to invest substantial sums in fleets of buses, either through buying out existing owners, investing in new buses, or both. This would require long-term security in terms of revenue and other conditions. In other words a stable regulatory system and a fares policy that would enable an adequate return to be earned on the investment. SUTMP Page 180 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan 12. Medium Term Plan (2023-2025) Actions that are recommended to be undertaken between the years 2023 and 2025 center on the delivery of the BRT corridor and supportive bus priority measures. Table 12-1: List of medium-term actions (2023-2025) Cost Area Cost Item Description (USD M) Funded in Bus reform implementation short-term PT improvements Segregated BRT infrastructure, Traffic Construct corridor improvement management, BRT stations, ITS equipment, 229.9 project (BRT) on spine and spur ticketing equipment, rolling stock Bus priority on direct service corridors. Oxygen-New Market, Infrastructure, Traffic management 94.0 Dhaka Trunk Road assistance For the red corridor (Oxygen to Kotwali) and Technical Mass transit feasibility studies & blue corridor (Alongkar Mor to Shaheed 5.0 Design Boshiruzzaman Sq) Total 328.9 SUTMP Page 181 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan Figure 12-1: Map of medium-term actions (2023-2025) SUTMP Page 182 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan 12.1 Public transport improvements 12.1.1 Implement BRT corridor improvement project The main activity to be performed during 2023 to 2025 is the implementation of the BRT corridor along the spine and spur (green line) in accordance with the feasibility and design studies undertaken in the short term. The total length of the corridor is 24 Km. Preliminary design features of this corridor are presented in the pre-feasibility study which accompanies this report entitled, D6a: Corridor Improvements Pre-Feasibility Study. It would be economically advantageous for Chittagong to introduce a policy of Transit Orientated Design as part of BRT implementation. This would integrate land-use planning into the design of the BRT and other future mass transit lines. This will enable the city to lever the new transport connections to create sustainable and economically vibrant local centers and communities. Priced into the BRT corridor is the purchase of over 1,000 new vehicles by 2030 to replace 9 bus routes and 1 human hauler route. Industry reform and support are essential to develop a new regulatory environment and business conditions so that finances can be gained for such a high level of investment. 12.1.2 Bus priority on direct service corridors In the medium-term it is recommended that bus priority measures are installed on the two mass transit candidate corridors which are not initially developed as BRT: • Red line: Baluchara to Kotwali using Hathazari Rd, Mizapul Rd, Panchlaish Rd and Nabab Siraj Ud Daula Rd, 10 Km • Blue line: Alonkar Mor to Shaheed Boshiruzzaman Sq using Dhaka Trunk Road, Station Rd, Kobi Kazi Nazrul Islam Rd, Mariner’s Dr. Rd, 9 Km Bus priority measures can refer to a range of different actions to improve public transport reliability and bus speeds. In this case, it is recommended that bus priority measures encompass: • Bus priority at junctions • Sheltered stations with raised platforms; buses only allowed to stop at stations • Off-bus ticketing • Segregated lanes in areas of high congestion SUTMP Page 183 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan • Management of headways and dwell times by a regulatory agency • Rickshaws and CNGs to operate from designated ranks • Effective roadway control including management of junctions, and the specification of permitted parking locations • Existing bus services are allowed to use bus priority infrastructure as long as they meet headway and dwell time requirements. • Re-surfacing of the road pavement 12.1.3 Bus restructuring/reform Reform of the bus industry should continue through the implementation phase of the BRT corridor and bus priority. The following enabling actions should be undertaken by the transport authority in the medium term: • Define, agree and appoint the third phase posts to act within the new formed executive authority that will develop the bus reform process/BRT • Work with industry to consolidate where required and develop needed skills to operate under the new regime. • Work with institutional partners on the implementation of BRT including specification of control equipment and refinement of operational service plan • Work with operators on forming new operating entities (as required), consolidation (as required) and skill development • Draft forms of contract 12.2 Technical assistance 12.2.1 Mass transit feasibility study & design Mass transit will be required to support Chittagong’s growing population and economy. As BRT is proposed for the Green line, feasibility studies for MRT should be performed in the medium-term to consider alignments along these key corridors: • Red line: Baluchara to Kotwali using Hathazari Rd, Mizapul Rd, Panchlaish Rd and Nabab Siraj Ud Daula Rd, 10 Km • Blue line: Alonkar Mor to Shaheed Boshiruzzaman Sq using Dhaka Trunk Road, Station Rd, Kobi Kazi Nazrul Islam Rd, Mariner’s Dr Rd, 9 Km SUTMP Page 184 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan The suitable mode, and design of these corridors should be determined through the feasibility study. SUTMP Page 185 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan 13. Long-Term Plan (2026-2030) Actions that are recommended to be undertaken between the years 2026 and 2030 are listed in Table 13-1 and mapped in Figure 13-1. Table 13-1: List of long-term actions (2026-2030) Cost Cost Item Description (USD M) Construct Mass transit on the red Dependant on a feasibility study uncosted corridor (Oxygen to Kotwali) Construct Mass transit on the blue corridor (Alongkar Mor to Shaheed Dependant on a feasibility study uncosted Boshiruzzaman Sq) PT improvements Install bus priority on secondary Infrastructure, traffic management 202.9 corridors Construct new City-bus terminals Infrastructure, Land purchase, Facilities, at Patenga, Kalurghat and Alongkar 19.5 Management Mor Construct new inter-district terminals at Baluchara, New Infrastructure, Land purchase, Facilities, 98.0 Bridge, Faujahhat. And close minor Management terminals Bridge widening at 4 locations Infrastructure 4.8 improvements Civil works, Signal equipment, Traffic Road Improve 18 Junctions management, pavement widening and 23.9 pedestrian crossings Footpath construction, 80.6Km Pavement, drainage and lighting 40.3 Total 389.4 SUTMP Page 186 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan Figure 13-1: Map of long-term actions (2026-2030) SUTMP Page 187 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan 13.1 Public transport improvements 13.1.1 Install bus priority on secondary corridors Bus priority measures should be installed on the secondary PT network. These road sections are listed in Table 13-2 and mapped in Figure 13-2. They total 46.1 Km in length. Table 13-2: Secondary PT corridors to be upgraded with bus priority measures Length Section (Km) Agrabad Access Rd - Port Connecting Rd to Badamtoli 2.4 Airport Rd - Cement Crossing to Chittagong Dry Dock 3.7 Ambagan Rd - Tigerpass to Flora Pass Rd 1.6 Arkan Rd, AJ Rd - Chawkbazar to New Bridge via Bahaddarhat 6.5 Bahir Signal to Kalurghat 2.3 Bayazid Bostami Rd - No. 2 Gate to Oxygen 4.4 Chatteswari Rd, Jubilee Rd - Golpahar Circle to New Market via Kazir Dewri 3.1 College Rd, Jamal Khan Rd - Chawkbazar to Anderkilla via Jamal Khan 2.3 Dhaka-Chittagong Hwy - AK Khan to Panchlaish Rd via GEC Circle 6.0 Enayet Bazar Rd - Cheragi Pahar to Batali Rd 0.8 K.B. Aman Ali Rd - Chawkbazar to AJ Rd 1.4 M.A. Aziz Rd, Kamal Ataturk Rd, Sea Beach Rd - Cement Crossing to Potenga 3.5 Reboti Mohan Ln - Almas to WASA Square 0.4 Shahid Saifuddin Khaled Rd - Jamal Khan to Ispahani Circle 1.6 Port Connecting Rd - AK Kahn to Nimtoli 6.1 Total 46.1 SUTMP Page 188 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan Figure 13-2: location of secondary PT corridors Primary PT corridors 13.1.2 Construct new PT terminals The following actions are proposed in the long-term plan to consolidate PT terminals (Figure 10-1). New city-bus terminals should be constructed at: • Patenga • Alongkar Mor SUTMP Page 189 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan • Kalurghat New bus terminals which serve both inter-district and city-bus services should be constructed at: • Faujdarhat to serve Dhaka bound buses. This project is proposed by CDA.  Diversion of inter-district services which currently terminate at Garibullah Shah, Kadamtali/Shuvopur, AK Khan and Alongkar Mor to terminate at Faujdarhat.  Extension of city-bus services which currently terminate at Colonel Hat to terminate further north at Faujdarhat. • Baluchara to the north of the current terminal at Oxygen. This project is proposed by CDA.  Diversion of inter-district and city-bus services which currently terminate at Oxygen to terminate at Baluchara • Shaheed Boshiruzzaman Sq (New Bridge)  Divert inter-district services that currently terminate at Cinema Palace to terminate at Shaheed Boshiruzzaman Sq (New Bridge) The following minor PT terminals can then be closed: • Colonel Hat: services moved to Faujdarhat • Garibulla Shah (GEC): services moved to Faujdarhat • Station Road: incorporated into New Market terminal • Kadamtali: services moved to Faujdarhat • Cinema Palace: services moved to Shaheed Boshiruzzaman Sq (New Bridge) 13.2 Road improvements 13.2.1 Improve 18 Junctions The transport modeling task has identified 18 junctions that become overly congested by 2030 and require improvement (Table 10-6), upgrades at these junctions are therefore recommended for the long-term based on the requirements set out in section 10.4. The locations are: • N1 / Colonel Jones Rd • CDA Ave / Shahid Saifuddin Khaled Rd (Lalkan Bazaar) SUTMP Page 190 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan • Batali Rd / Station Rd (BRTC Circle) • Sheikh Mujib Rd / Halishahar / Pathantuli Rd (Choumuhuni) • CDA Ave / High-Level Rd (WASA Square) • Chatteswari Rd / Shahid Saifuddin Khaled Rd / Nur Ahmed Rd (Kazir Dewri) • N1 / AK Khan • Zakir Hossain Rd / South Kulshi Rd • Zakir Hossain Rd / Shahid Abdul Halim • Zakir Hossain Rd / Shahid Lane (extension of Ambargan Road) • Station Road / Chittagong Railway Station Entrance • Jamal Khan / Shahid Saifuddin Khaled Rd (Dr MA Hashem Sq) • OR Nizam Rd / Mirzapul Rd/Panchlaish Rd (Panchlaish Police Station Circle) • OR Nizam Rd / Bayazid Bostami Rd (Prabartak Circle • Nabab Siraj Ud Daula Rd / Darul Ulum Rd • AG Road / KB Aman Ali Rd • Zakir Hossain Rd- Foy’s Lake Approach Road • Nur Ahmed / Love Lane / Jubilee Rd (Lovelane Circle) 13.2.2 Footpath construction As part of the city-wide plan for footpath improvements, the construction of 58 Km of footpaths along main road is necessary in the long term. This includes: • 21.0 Km where footpaths are not currently present at all • 13.4 Km where footpaths are currently present on one-side of the road only • 3.6 Km where footpaths are currently present on both-sides of the road, but they are in a very poor condition • 29.0 Km where footpaths are currently present on both-sides of the road, but they are in a poor condition • 11.6 Km where footpaths are currently present on both-sides of the road, but they are in a fair condition SUTMP Page 191 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan 13.2.3 Bridge widening at 4 locations Widening of some bridges which have been deemed to present a particular contribution to congestion will help to ensure safety for all road users. An element of environmental resilience should also be built into these upgrades in order to mitigate any potential negative impacts from cyclones or flooding. The main objectives fulfilled by these actions are: • Safety and security: Bridge-widening will help to ensure that pedestrians and NMVs are not forced to the edges of the carriageway and put in unnecessary danger • Economic efficiency: Ensuring there is an appropriate width throughout the road length (including bridges) can help to ensure a smooth and consistent flow, helping to alleviate waiting and congestion at pinch points • Environmental: Bridges can be redesigned or upgraded with environmental difficulties in mind, including protection from cyclones or more general flooding. Bridge widening is required at these 4 locations: • Cox’s Bazar Road (N107) – bridge over waterway • N107 – bridge over waterway • Chittagong – Rangamati Khagrachhari Road (N106) – bridge over waterway • AG Road (N1) – bridge over waterway SUTMP Page 192 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan 1 4 . I m p l e me n t a t i o n a r r a n g e me n t The organisational structure for implementation is presented in Figure 14-1. The project steering committee is chaired by the Ministry of Housing and Public Works. This committee guides the project management unit which is chaired by CDA. This unit coordinates the following delivery agencies, CCC, CDA, CMP and CPA. Figure 14-1: Organisational structure for implementation Project Steering Committee (Chair is MOHPW) Project Coordinating Unit & Project Management Unit (Chair is CDA) CCC CDA CMP CPA Project Delivery Project Delivery Project Delivery Project Delivery Unit Unit Unit Unit The primary roles for each of the delivery agencies are: • CDA  BRT planning design & implementation  Public transport terminals • CCC  Road improvements  Junction improvements  Footpath improvements • CMP  Design consultation SUTMP Page 193 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan  Traffic signals  Enforcement plan • CPA  Freight waiting area, parking ban on Mooring Road  Port gate access improvement/control at 5 gates A Public Transport Authority will be established to coordinate the transport related agencies in Chittagong to deliver a public transport network that is integrated, efficient, cost-effective and sustainable to meet the commuter’s needs. As specified in 10.7 this should be a new independent body. In the short-term the board of the PTA will be formed by the executive order of the Government, this board will comprise the existing members of the STUMP coordination committee plus additional industry representatives. This board will oversee the activities and development of the PTA. it is proposed that the authority will be initially financed from the SUTMP investment project. In the medium-term the authority should become established as a Government Statutory Body under the revenue budget of GOB and be placed under the Ministry of Road Transport and Bridges. It is to be headed by an Executive Director, to be appointed by the Government for a definite period of time. In the long-term it is recommended that the city develops the PTA into an urban transport authority that includes the management and movement of private vehicles, taxis, parking, freight and non- motorization transport. SUTMP Page 194 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan 1 5 . C o s t E s t i ma t e s Costs are presented in Table 11-1, Table 12-1 and Table 13-1 for short, medium and long-term actions respectively. This chapter identifies how these costs have been estimated. 15.1 BRT and bus priority In Chittagong, the capital costs for BRT and bus priory measures should include costs to reconstruct the road pavement and footpaths. This is because the road pavement conditions are currently poor contributing to the low capacity of the roads. The installation of a dedicated bus lane will take space away from general traffic to use, therefore the entire roadway must be upgraded to increase traveling speeds and maintain capacity for general traffic. As presented in section 7.3 the current footpaths in Chittagong are either non-existent, too narrow or of a poor quality. Consequently, BRT and bus priority measures should be accompanied by footpath construction. The cost estimates for these constructions are presented below. Table 15-1: Cost estimates for highway improvement that support BRT and bus priority Item USD (per km) Reconstruction of road 15m, expected minimum width 1,700,000 pavement and installation of footpaths 35m, expected maximum width 3,200,000 Table 15-2 lists recent international examples of costings for the development of BRT, these include bus lanes, junction priority, stations, depot, vehicles and costs to establish an operations center. These values range from USD 3.6million (per km) for an infrastructure light implementation in Hanoi to USD 12.8million (per km) for an infrastructure-heavy implementation for Dhaka BRT line 3 North. SUTMP Page 195 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan Table 15-2: International examples of BRT cost Length Total Cost Cost per Km BRT Line Source (km) (USD M) (USD M) BRT Dhaka, line 7 36 205.3 5.7 Master plan estimate. JICA, 2015. Revision and Updating of the Strategic Transport Plan for Dhaka. Table 13.3, p13-2 BRT Dhaka, Line 3 20 255 12.8 Approved cost. Bangladesh Bridge Authority, North 2017. BBA India, Amedabad 4.8 BRT Centre of Excellence, www.brt.cl Lahore 19 11.0 BRT Centre of Excellence, www.brt.cl BRT Hanoi 14.7 53.6 3.6 nhandan.com.vn BRT Karachi- Red line 23.1 125.2 5.4 ITP 2016, for Karachi BRT Preliminary Design estimate (USD6.9m including all NMT measures (off-street parking etc) included BRT-Lite (Bus priority) 1.3 ITP 2016, for Yangon BRT Pre-FS BRT-Full 15 ITP 2016, for Yangon BRT Pre-FS Considering these examples, it is estimated that the cost to install full BRT in Chittagong would be USD 6.5 M per Km plus the cost to reconstruct the pavement and footpaths. This value has been derived by uplifting the recent cost estimates for BRT in Karachi and Dhaka line 7 to account for inflation. Table 15-3: Estimated costs for BRT and bus priority development in Chittagong Cost per km Item (USD M) Bus Running way, stops, junction improvements 2.0 priority Roadway re-surfacing and footpath provision (15m to 1.7 - 3.2 35m width) SUTMP Page 196 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan Cost per km Item (USD M) Total for bus priority (21m to 41m width) 3.7- 5.2 BRT Running way, stops, junction priority, vehicles, depot, 6.5 operations center Roadway improvement and footpath provision (15m 1.7 – 3.2 to 35m width) Total for BRT (21m to 41m) 8.2 – 9.7 15.2 PT terminals The short-term improvement of inter-district terminals is estimated to cost approximately USD 500,000 per site. The cost to construct new PT terminals is largely determined by the land required and construction costs for the terminal building. The land requirement for new PT terminals is determined by the number of buses which are expected to utilize it. SGArchitects (2014)39 provide guidance on the total site area based on the maximum hourly flow of inter-district and city-bus services. Table 15-4 presents the maximum forecast hourly flows at each new terminal and the corresponding land required to serve this flow. This calculation assumes that depot and workshop facilities are provided for inter-district buses, but not for city-bus/BRT. 39SGArchitects , 2014. Bus Terminal Design Guidelines. Accessible online at: http://shaktifoundation.in/wp- content/uploads/2014/02/Bus-Terminal-Design-Guidelines.pdf SUTMP Page 197 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan Table 15-4: Estimate of land required and cost for construction of new PT terminals No. of inter-district services No. of Inter-district Land Land Construction Total Peak hr Type Location destinations Daily 2017, Daily, 2030 Pk-hr 2030 required40 cost41 cost42 cost city-bus served reallocated Forecast43 Forecast44 (Hectares) (USD M) (USD M) (USD M) services Bandarban, Inter-district Bahaddarhat Rangamati, 704 1,100 110 0 4 20.0 6.0 26.0 terminal Banshkhali, Kaptai, Dhaka, Noahkhali and Faujdarhat 1,348 2,100 210 60 8 40.0 11.0 51.0 Comilla Raujan, Rangamati, Inter-district & Baluchara 240 360 36 140 2 10.0 4.5 14.5 Khagrachori, Najirhat city-bus terminal New Bridge Anowara, Lohagara (Shaheed and Potia, Cox's Bazar 797 1,200 120 120 5 25.0 7.5 32.5 Boshiruzzaman Sq) and Teknaf, Alongkar Mor 110 0.7 5.0 1.3 4.5 Kalurghat 120 0.7 5.0 1.3 4.5 City-bus terminal Patenga 120 0.7 5.0 1.3 4.5 New Market 60 1.5 2.5 1.5 9.5 40 Looks up peak hour flow in SGArchitects (2014), Annex 4, p.116 & 164 Assumes 30min layover for inter-district services and 10min for city-bus/BRT 41 Based on consultants estimate of USD.5.0m per hectare for land with current residential or commercial purpose 42 Looks up peak hour flow in SGArchitects (2014) p.86 & 90 Assumes 30min layover for inter-district services and 10min for city-bus/BRT 43 50% more PT trips forecast by 2030 44 Peak hour movements are 10% of daily, based on route schedules SUTMP Page 198 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan 15.3 PT interchanges/bus stops The cost of building a bus stop includes the deconstruction of existing footpath, construction of a new raised footpath, construction of the shelter, painting of the road and installation of signage. ALG (2015) 45 estimate the cost to install a stop with these specifications in Dhaka to be for USD 3,795 for 2 bays, USD 5,660 for 3 bays and USD 7,500 for 4 bays. Considering the high flow of PT vehicles in Chittagong, and the requirement to improve ancillary footpath and pedestrian crossings the cost to improve a single interchange is estimated to be USD 50,000. 15.4 Footpaths The cost estimates for footpath construction are presented below, these include the cost of installing a surface drain (300mm x 300mm) and drain pipe to the main drain. The cost to install street lights includes the cost of (i) Pole, (ii) Pole fitting, (iii) Sodium light, (iv) Pole light wiring, (v) circuit breaker, SDB & others, and (vi) civil works. Adding the cost for street lights onto the cost to install a 3.3m wide pavement yields a total cost of 500,000 USD per km, for footpaths on both sides of the road. The comparative cost for footpath construction in Dhaka is 650,000 USD per km. Table 15-5: Cost estimates for the construction of new footpaths Cost per km, for a footpath on Item both sides of the road (USD) 1.8m wide pavement 300,000 3.3m wide pavement 450,000 5.0m wide pavement 500,000 Street lights (every 30m) 50,000 45 ALG 2015. Dhaka Bus Network Reform Stud. Vol. 2, Chpt 6, Table 6.14 SUTMP Page 199 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan 15.5 Junction upgrades Costs to upgrade junctions have been estimated as part of the pre-feasibility study for road scheme improvements. The pre-feasibility study presents concept designs for the upgrade of 12 diverse junctions from across the city. Table 15-6 presents the costs of each of the 12 concept designs. The following works items have been included in these estimations: • Layout setting and Earth cutting • Brickwork for dividers/splitter islands and central islands • Sand filling with compaction • Lane markings • Zebra crossings • Stop signs • Traffic signaling system • Modification of corner radii, including demolition (where necessary) • Resurfacing on all arms to a distance of 100m • Construction of footpaths along all arms to a distance of 100m • Footbridges where necessary Table 15-6: Costs for each concept design (USD) Repave Civil Re-pave Footpath 100m of Total Junction location Signals Footbridge Works junction & lighting approach Cost road 1 New Market 21,000 22,500 166,391 80,000 998,349 1,288,240 2 Goni Bakery 8,000 18,750 91,515 60,000 748,762 927,027 3 Enayet Bazar 4,000 22,500 91,515 80,000 998,349 1,196,364 4 Chawkbazar 7,000 22,500 99,835 80,000 998,349 1,207,684 5 GEC Circle 10,000 22,500 465,896 80,000 998,349 600,000 2,676,745 6 Muradpur 13,000 22,500 193,680 80,000 998,349 1,307,528 7 Badamtoli 7,000 22,500 186,109 80,000 998,349 1,293,958 8 Alongkar Mor 19,000 22,500 158,072 80,000 998,349 1,277,921 9 CEPZ 2,000 18,750 207,989 60,000 748,762 600,000 1,637,501 10 Women's College 10,000 22,500 49,917 80,000 998,349 1,160,766 11 Oxygen 18,000 22,500 316,144 80,000 998,349 1,434,993 Shaheed 12 38,000 22,500 374,381 80,000 998,349 600,000 2,113,230 Boshiruzzaman SUTMP Page 200 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan Costs for the 49 junctions that are upgraded in the short term have been estimated by matching each of the 49 junctions with the most appropriate junction concept design. 15.6 Railway crossings and bridge widening The construction costs for a railway level crossing are estimated to be USD 310,000 per site on average. This includes the cost to resurface the roadway 50m up and downstream. The construction costs for bridge widening are estimated to be USD 1.2 M per site on average. SUTMP Page 201 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan 16. Modeled Impact of SUTMP 16.1 Changes to traffic and congestion The transport model has been used to test the impact of the SUTMP on future travel conditions. The procedures used to model projects and measures entailed adjusting link capacity and speed to reflect the likely impact of each intervention. Examples include: • BRT and bus priority improvements were modeled through speed guarantees provided to PT vehicles using such infrastructure • The organisation and construction of PT terminals increase road capacity within the vicinity, while passengers benefit from a reduced interchange penalty • Junction improvements were modeled by increasing road capacity and speed on approach to junctions • Railway crossing and bridge widening improvements increase road capacity and speed on approach • Establishment of controlled parking zones was modeled by increasing capacity on roads in proportion to the demand to park in that zone • Mode choice is modeled for all interventions The SUTMP scenario includes the addition of mass transit on the red and blue corridors by 2030 (Figure 13-1). While the mode chosen for these mass transit corridors depends on a feasibility study, the modeling exercise has assumed that they will be implemented as BRT. Figure 16-1 presents the results of the modeled impact of the SUTMP upon aggregate measures of traffic. The plan acts to increase average speeds and reduce total vehicle distance compared to the do-minimum scenario. By 2030 average speeds of 12 Kph are attained in the PM peak instead of 7 Kph in the do-minimum scenario. Furthermore, the distance traveled by all vehicles in the PM peak hour reduces 11% by 2030. Figure 16-2 presents the modeled impact of the SUTMP upon future mode split. It shows that the implementation of the SUTMP is expected to increase PT use in the future while reducing car/motorcycle use. By 2030 the SUTMP is expected to increase PT use from 39% of trips to 45%, while car use decreased from 16% to 8%. SUTMP Page 202 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan Figure 16-4 and Figure 16-5 compares the modeled car speeds on each road link for years 2025 and 2030. These figures show that implementation of the SUTMP acts to increase vehicle speeds on arterial roads, on the ‘spine’ of CDA Avenue and on roads in the city center. Figure 16-1: Modelled impact of SUTMP upon traffic and speed Forecast PM peak hour traffic and speed 450,000 16 400,000 14 Average speed - all vehicles 350,000 12 Total vehicle-Kms 300,000 10 Do Min: Total veh-kms (left axis) 250,000 8 STUMP: Total veh-kms (left axis) 200,000 Do Min: All veh speed (right axis) 6 150,000 SUTMP: Ave speed (right axis) 4 100,000 50,000 2 0 0 2017 2022 2025 2030 Figure 16-2: Modelled impact of SUTMP upon mode split Forecast mode split (passenger trips) 100% 12% 11% 13% 12% 8% 90% 16% 80% 19% 20% 20% 22% 21% 70% 20% Truck 60% 25% 24% 24% 24% 24% 23% Car/motorcycle 50% 40% CNG/Rickshaw 30% Walk 20% 42% 44% 41% 44% 45% PT 39% 10% 0% 2022 2022 2025 2025 2030 2030 Do-min SUTMP Do-min SUTMP Do-min SUTMP SUTMP Page 203 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan Figure 16-3: Modelled impact on the composition of vehicle-kms Forecast change in composition of veh-kms (PM peak hour) 450,000 400,000 350,000 300,000 Truck 250,000 Car/motorcycle 200,000 CNG/Rickshaw 150,000 Walk 100,000 PT 50,000 0 2022 2022 2025 2025 2030 2030 Do-minSUTMP Do-min SUTMP Do-minSUTMP Table 16-1: Modelled impact on vehicle speed by mode, PM peak hour (Kph) 2025 2030 Mode Do- Do- SUTMP SUTMP minimum minimum PT 7.5 12.5 5.0 14.2 Car 8.6 14.5 6.9 13.7 CNG/Rickshaw 7.6 12.0 5.9 11.0 Truck 12.5 18.3 7.6 13.4 SUTMP Page 204 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan Figure 16-4: Car speeds in PM Peak 2025, for do-minimum (left) and SUTMP (right) SUTMP Page 205 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan Figure 16-5: Car speeds in PM Peak 2030, for do-minimum (left) and SUTMP (right) SUTMP Page 206 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan 16.2 Changes to air pollution Figure 16-1 shows that implementation of the SUTMP reduces vehicle-kms, while Figure 16-2 shows that the plan changes the balance of modes in the city. Both of these changes have implications upon GHG emissions. Figure 16-6 presents the forecast impact upon annual GHG emissions. The implementation of the SUTMP is expected to reduce annual GHG emissions by 53,000 T CO2e in 2030, this represents an 18% reduction upon the do-minimum scenario. As mentioned in section 8.3.1, it is the total accumulation of GHGs in the atmosphere which causes climate change. By 2030, the SUTMP is forecast to save a total emission of 0.3 M Tonnes of GHG gasses by 2030 and 0.8 M Tonnes by 2040. Figure 16-6: Impact of SUTMP upon annual GHG emissions Annual GHG emissions (T CO2e) 350,000 300,000 Anuual T CO2e 250,000 200,000 DoMin 150,000 SUTMP 100,000 50,000 0 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Implementation of the SUTMP also acts to reduce the emissions of local air pollutants from transport. Figure 16-7 and Figure 16-8 present the forecast impact upon particulates and nitrous oxide emissions. By 2030 the SUTMP is expected to reduce annual PMx emissions by 19% and nitrous oxide emissions by 23% in comparison to the do-minimum scenario. SUTMP Page 207 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan Figure 16-7: Impact of SUTMP upon annual particulate emissions Annual PMx emissions (Tonnes PMx) 70 60 50 Anuual T PMx 40 DoMin 30 SUTMP 20 10 0 2017 2022 2025 2030 Figure 16-8: Impact of SUTMP upon annual nitrous oxide emissions Annual NOx emissions (Tonnes NOx) 1400 1200 1000 Anuual T NOx 800 DoMin 600 SUTMP 400 200 0 2017 2022 2025 2030 SUTMP Page 208 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan 17. Economic Appraisal The SUTMP is forecast to have significant economic benefits which will be experienced within the study area. There are generally three forms of benefits from such a transport scheme: consumer benefits, producer benefits and externalities. To calculate the benefits, it is only the estimated change that is relevant and required. • Consumer benefits are derived from the lower cost incurred by passengers of PT, CNG/rickshaw and the users of cars. In the absence of fare changes, this is driven by lower time costs for PT and CNG passengers. For users of cars this includes lower time costs and lower vehicle operating costs. • Producer benefits are the increase in economic benefits derived by the providers of PT, CNG/rickshaw services and the operators of trucks. In this project the main benefit is derived from the reduction of vehicle operating costs by displacing passengers from small and older PT vehicles to more efficient buses. • Externalities are benefits transferred to society in general rather those directly involved as either consumers or producers. Examples of externalities include lower vehicle emissions and higher safety levels. 17.1 Implementation stages The economic appraisal scenario follows the staged approach for implementation concerning short, medium and long-term actions in chapters 11, 11.3 and 12.2: • The short-term actions are implemented between 2019 and 2022 have a capital cost of USD 118.3M and land costs of USD 47.5 M (Table 11-1) • The medium-term actions are implemented between 2023 and 2025 have a capital cost of USD 328.9M and land costs of USD 73.5M (Table 12-1) • The long-term actions that are costed sum to USD 389.4M for implementation between 2036 and 2030 (Table 13-1). But Table 13-1 does not include the construction costs of mass transit on the red corridor and the blue corridor because the mode of these lines is to be determined by future feasibility studies. The economic appraisal presented here assumes that the chosen mode of these corridors is to be BRT. The cost to upgrade the bus priority measures implemented on these corridors in the medium term to BRT is estimated to be USD 6M per km. This derives an additional cost of USD 116.4M to implement BRT on the red and blue corridors, which increases the long-term project costs to total USD 505.8M. SUTMP Page 209 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan The total capital cost of the SUTMP (2019-2030) therefore stands at USD 952.9M, assuming that BRT is the chosen mode for the red and blue corridors, with land costs of USD 121M. The appraisal period runs from 2019 to 2040. It starts in 2019 to match the beginning of the implementation period. 17.2 Assumptions The appraisal considers an equity value of time, this presents an average value of time across all modes. Applying a common value of time rather than the differentiated value of time by mode (as in the demand forecasting) ensures that the benefits to private car users (who typically have higher incomes and values of time) are not prioritised over benefits to public transport users or walkers. The equity value of time starts at USD 0.71 per hour in 2017 rising to USD 2.53 per hour in 2040, in- line with the forecast increase in GDP per capita provided by the IMF46. The equity VOT is derived from modal values calculated by the Bangladesh Road Research Laboratory (BRRL)47 (Table 17-1). Table 17-1: Value of Time (USD per hour) Mode 2017 2022 2025 2030 2040 PT 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.7 Car 1.4 1.8 2.1 2.7 4.4 Rickshaw/CNG 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.4 2.4 Truck 2.7 3.6 4.2 5.4 8.8 Equity Value 0.71 0.97 1.16 1.55 2.53 of Time 46International Monetary Fund 2016. World Economic Outlook Database 47Bangladesh Road Research Laboratory (BRRL) and Roads and Highways Department (RHD) 2017. Review of existing road user cost estimation procedure used in RHD and update the same under BRRL during the year 2016-2017. Pp10 SUTMP Page 210 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan Vehicle operating costs are also provided by the BRRL48, the values used in the economic appraisal are presented in Table 17-2. BRRL provide data on vehicle operating costs between the years 2004 and 2016. This data shows that transport prices rises have risen slower than general inflation49. Between 2004 and 2016, prices to travel by PT have increased by 5.3% annually, for car travel prices have risen 4.3% annually, for rickshaw/CNG travel it is 4.8% annually and for trucks 3.9% annually. All of these annualised price rises sit below the level of general inflation of 7.5% observed between the years 2004 and 2016, as reported by the World Bank. Transport prices in Bangladesh have therefore decreased in real terms over the last decade. To provide a conservative estimate of future transport prices, we have assumed that transport prices will hold steady in real terms. Table 17-2: Vehicle operating costs (USD per km) Mode 2017 2022 2025 2030 2040 PT 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 Car 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27 Rickshaw/CNG 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 Truck 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38 The IMF forecast GDP growth for Bangladesh to be 6.8% per annum between 2017 and 202150. Considering this forecast, and World Bank guidance on discounting costs51, a discount rate of 13.6% is applied. The PM-peak hour is modeled in the transport model because this was observed to be the most congested time of day (Table 7-1). 6% of the all-day traffic was observed to flow during the PM-peak hour (Figure 4-6). To factor up the PM-peak benefits to represent the whole day, a value of 16.7 (1 ÷ 6%) is used for distance-based benefits, while half of the factor, 8.7, is used for time-based benefits. Time-based benefits receive half the factor because most of the gains occur in the peak-periods when congestion is at its worst. The factor used for the annulation of the benefits is 312. 48 Bangladesh Road Research Laboratory (BRRL) and Roads and Highways Department (RHD) 2017. Review of existing road user cost estimation procedure used in RHD and update the same under BRRL during the year 2016-2017. 49 World Bank 2018. Inflation, consumer prices (annual %) https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG 50 International Monetary Fund 2016. World Economic Outlook Database http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2016/02/weodata/weoselgr.aspx 51 World Bank 2016. Discounting Costs and Benefits in Economic Analysis of World Bank Projects SUTMP Page 211 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan 17.3 Consumer benefits The consumers of travel include PT users, rickshaw/CNG users and car users. These consumers will enjoy lower journey times across every mode when the SUTMP is implemented. Figure 16-1 shows how the SUTMP will deliver a marked improvement in vehicle speeds. Total journey time savings in each of the modeled time horizons are presented in Table 17-3 below. Table 17-3: Journey time savings for users of PT, car and Rickshaw/CNG 2022 2025 2030 Mode Do SUTMP Saving Do SUTMP Saving Do SUTMP Saving Min Min Min Average Public Transport 28 21 7 31 17 14 52 19 33 time for a journey Car 24 16 8 30 18 12 39 38 1 undertaken in the PM- Rickshaw/CNG 17 12 5 21 13 8 28 14 13 Peak (mins) Total annual journey time 275 205 70 360 208 152 641 269 372 (Million hours) The implementation of the scheme is forecast to save a total of 5,427 million hours for consumers between the years 2019 and 2040. Considering the equity VOT, this yields total benefits with a Present Value (PV) of approximately USD 2,054 million. It is assumed that fares for PT and rickshaw/CNG will remain the same in the future, therefore users of PT and rickshaw/CNG will only benefit from the lower journey times presented above. In contrast, car users will benefit from lower vehicle operating costs derived from lower vehicle-kms. The implementation of the SUTMP is expected to save a total of 738 million veh-kms between 2019 and 2040. This yields benefits with a PV of approximately USD 43 million. Total consumer benefits accumulated between the years 2019 and 2040 have a PV of USD 2,098 million. This constitutes 90% of the total benefits (see Figure 17-1). 17.4 Producer benefits Transport producers include the operators of PT and rickshaw/CNG services as well as truck operators. These operators benefit from reduced vehicle operating costs attributable to reduced vehicle-kms, while truck operators also benefit from travel time savings which result in lower staff SUTMP Page 212 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan wages. Reductions in veh-kms are attributable to a shift to the use of larger PT vehicles and reduced congestion that enables more direct routing. Table 17-4 presents the veh-kms savings in the modeled PM-peak hour as well as factored-up values for the year. Table 17-4: Vehicle-km savings for operators of PT, Rickshaw/CNG and truck 2022 2025 2030 Mode Do Min SUTMP Saving Do Min SUTMP Saving Do Min SUTMP Saving Total veh- Public 32,487 34,436 1,949 34,195 20,868 -13,327 42,377 19,920 -22,457 kms in Transport the PM- peak hour Rickshaw/CNG 113,218 97,792 -15,426 123,626 116,354 -7,272 142,893 129,389 -13,504 (kms) Truck 20,459 20,252 -206 26,398 25,771 -627 47,700 39,272 -8,428 Total annual journey time 648 595 -53 718 636 -83 909 735 -173 (Million veh-kms) BRRL provides the operating costs by mode (Table 17-2). For the PT, rickshaw/CNG and truck operators, the implementation of the scheme will save a total of 2,633 million veh-kms between 2019 and 2040. This equates to a PV benefit of USD 164 million attributable to the reduction in vehicle operating cost. The additional benefits in time savings accrued by truck operators are expected to total 117 million hours up to 2040. This equates to a PV benefit of USD 43 million. Total producer benefits accumulated between the years 2019 and 2040 therefore have a PV of USD 207 million. This constitutes 9% of the total benefits (see Figure 17-1). 17.5 External benefits 17.5.1 GHG reduction As highlighted above, the SUTMP is expected to reduce the number of vehicle-kms for each mode: • For PT vehicles, this is attributable to a shift from small vehicles such as the existing buses, tempo and human-haulers to large buses • For other road users (car, rickshaw-type, truck) this is attributable to faster travel speeds encouraging drivers to choose more direct journeys SUTMP Page 213 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan • Mode shift from car and rickshaw/CNG to PT vehicles enables further reduction in veh- kms. The reduction in vehicle-kms generates an associated reduction in Green House Gas (GHG) emissions as less fossil fuel is burned (Figure 16-6). Considering the average GHG emissions per vehicle- kilometer for each mode, we forecast scheme implementation to save a total 0.8M T tonnes of CO2equivalent between the years 2019 and 2040. The World Bank52 calculates the social value of each tonne of CO2e saved to be USD 30 in 2015 rising to USD 80 in 2050. The application of this value yields a PV benefit of USD 8 million between the years 2019 and 2040 attributable to GHG reduction. 17.5.2 Road Traffic Accidents The reduction in vehicle-kms will also yield a reduction in the number of traffic accidents. The BRRL calculate the current accident rate for Bangladesh to be 101 Killed and Seriously Injured (KSI) people per Billion vehicle-kms53. BRRL consider each of these instances to have a social cost of USD 47,000. Considering growth in GDP per capita this value is forecast to increase to USD 157,000 by 2040. The SUTMP is expected to save a total of 3,370 million vehicle-kms between 2019 and 2040, this should translate into a reduction of 341 road traffic KSI accidents during this time period. This translates into a PV benefit of USD 8 million. The total PV benefit that combines the producer benefits, consumer benefits and external benefits is USD 2,321 million. 52http://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/climatechange/brief/integrating-climate-change-world-bank 53Bangladesh Road Research Laboratory (BRRL) and Roads and Highways Department (RHD) 2017. Review of existing road user cost estimation procedure used in RHD and update the same under BRRL during the year 2016-2017. SUTMP Page 214 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan Figure 17-1: Percentage of Total PV benefits (USD 2,321 million) Percentage of total PV benefit External Producer benefits Surplus 1% 10% Consumer surplus 89% 17.6 Project Costs The total capital investment, including land costs, is USD 165.8M between 2019 and 2022, USD 397.3M between 2023 and 2025 and USD 511 M between 2026 and 2030. Considering a maintenance cost of 2% of capital, the total cost incurred over the course of the appraisal period is forecast to be USD 1,247M. Considering the discount rate of 13.6% derives a PV cost of USD 562M. 17.7 Economic Analysis The table below provides an overview of the main economic appraisal indicators. Figure 17-2: Economic Appraisal Indicators (2019 – 2040) Appraisal indicator Value BCR 4.1 Net Present Value (million USD) 1,759 IRR (%) 44% The economic appraisal indicators highlighted in the table above show that the scheme will: SUTMP Page 215 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan • Generate total Net PV of USD 1,759 million. Therefore, the total PV of benefits exceeds the PV of costs. A net PV value greater than zero is indicative of an economically feasible project. • Produce a Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR) of 4.1, indicating that every USD 1.00 expended on the project as costs will yield USD 4.10 in benefits. • Have an Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of 44% indicating that net PV and BCR will remain above zero and unity, respectively, below discount rates of this (high) value. The Figure below presents the cumulative benefits and costs in PV terms over the horizon of the forecast period (2019-2040). Figure 17-3: Cumulative Benefits and Costs (2019-2040) Cumulative benefits and costs (2019-2040) 2500 Cumulative Presenet Value Benefits and costs (million US$) 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2025 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 Year Cumulative Benefit (USD M) Cumulative Cost (USD M) Figure 17-3 reveals that: • The project costs are front-ended; high for the initial years and decelerate over the life- cycle of the project. This is typical of infrastructure projects which require initial and significant capital infrastructure costs. • The project benefits are minimal in the initial years as most of the phase 1 work only becomes operational in the year 2022 and phase 2 operational in 2025. • The economic breakeven year is between the years 2026 and 2027, as depicted by the intersection between the benefit and cost curves. It is therefore important that the project life extends beyond this date. SUTMP Page 216 Chittagong Strategic Urban Transport Master Plan 17.7.1 Sensitivity Analysis To test the sensitivity of the economic analysis a 20% reduction in journey time savings and/or 20% increase in capital costs have been analysed and the results are summarised in the table below. Table 17-5: Economic Appraisal Indicators (2019 – 2040) - Sensitivity Analysis 20% Red. Time & Appraisal 20% Red. time & 20% Inc. Capital Costs operator Savings AND indicator operator Savings 20% Inc. Capital Cost BCR 3.3 3.4 2.8 NPV (million USD) 1,295 1,647 1,182 IRR (%) 38% 39% 33% Table 17-5 reveals that with both a 20% reduction in journey time savings benefits and a 20% increase in capital costs, the SUTMP will remain economically feasible, with a BCR of 3.8, net PV of USD 1,182 million and an IRR of 33%. SUTMP Page 217