For more information, visit http://www.worldbank.org/prospects March 18, 2016 Taking Stock  U.S. Fed left interest rates unchanged; core inflation rose. Following its two-day policy meeting, the Federal Reserve held the benchmark federal funds rate between 0.25 percent and 0.5 percent, in line with expectations, and signaled two rate hikes in 2016 instead of four as previously projected. The Fed also cut its 2016 GDP growth forecast to 2.2 percent from 2.4 percent and headline inflation forecast to 1.2 percent from 1.6 percent. The core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation forecast was left at 1.6 percent. Separately, the Labor Department reported that the consumer price index fell by 0.2 percent (m/m) in February, more than expected, after remaining unchanged in January, due to a drop in energy prices. Core consumer prices, excluding food and fuel, rose 0.3 percent (m/m) in February, more than expected and the same increase as in January (Figure 1).  Euro Area industrial production rebounded, inflation confirmed at -0.2 percent. Euro area industrial production (IP) rose by 2.1 percent (m/m, s.a.) in January, more than expected, rebounding from December’s 0.5 percent decline. The January increase, the biggest since September 2009 (Figure 2), reflected a higher production of consumer, capital and intermediate goods. Year-on-year, industrial production in the Euro Area rose by 2.8 percent in January, above expectations, from negative 0.1 percent in December. Meanwhile, consumer prices decreased 0.2 percent (y/y) in February, headline inflation turning negative for the first time in five months, in line with preliminary estimates. Core inflation came in at 0.8 percent, slowing from 1 percent in January but higher than the preliminary estimate of 0.7 percent.  Japan’s central bank held monetary policy steady. After a two-day monetary policy meeting, Bank of Japan decided to keep the annual rate of quantitative easing at ¥80 trillion, in line with expectations. It also left the deposit rate on certain commercial bank reserves at negative 0.1 percent, and noted that, if needed, additional easing measures would be taken.  Egypt sharply increased benchmark interest rate. On Thursday, Egypt’s central bank raised its deposit rate by 150 basis points to 10.75 percent, the most since 2006. The larger-than-expected increase in the benchmark rate came after the central bank devalued the currency by 13 percent against the U.S. dollar, and announced plans to adopt a floating exchange rate in a bid to ease foreign exchange shortages in the economy.  S&P and Moody’s cut Mozambique credit rating. On Tuesday, Standard & Poor cut Mozambique’s long term, foreign currency credit rating from B- to CC, 10 notches below investment grade. The S&P move came after the Government of Mozambique announced that it was proposing a restructuring of $697 billion of outstanding debt owed by a state-run tuna- fishing company for new paper with a longer maturity, which the rating agency said would amount to a default. Shortly afterward, Moody's downgraded Mozambique to B3 from B2. Figure 1 U.S. core consumer prices rose in January. Figure 2 Euro Area IP increased sharply in January. U.S. urban CPI less food and energy Euro Area industrial production, excluding construction Index, month-over-month, seasonally adjusted Percent, month-over-month, seasonally adjusted 0.30 3 0.25 2 0.20 1 0.15 0.10 0 0.05 -1 0.00 -2 -0.05 -0.10 -3 Oct-09 Jun-10 Oct-11 Jun-12 Feb-13 Oct-13 Oct-15 Feb-09 Feb-11 Jun-14 Feb-15 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-08 Jan-15 Jan-16 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Source: Eurostat. Produced by DECPG (Eung Ju Kim). Number 297 | March 18, 2016 Weekly Insight: Regulatory Convergence in Mega-regional Trade Agreements The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) aims to promote a common regulatory approach, either through mutual recognition agreements or outright harmonization. Benefits for members and non-members tend to be higher when members choose mutual recognition and rules of origin are not restrictive. Based on earlier experience, notably in the European Union, three broad types of preferential agreements are available to deal with product standards. The simplest and potentially most powerful, is mutual recognition of existing standards, whereby a country grants unrestricted access to its market to products that meet any participating country’s standards. Mutual Recognition Agreements (MRAs) are, however, not likely to be an option if there is significant difference in the initial standards of the countries. In such cases, a certain degree of harmonization of standards is a precondition for countries to allow products of other countries to access their markets. In many other cases, neither mutual recognition nor harmonization of substantive standards are deemed feasible or desirable. Instead, countries may choose to mutually recognize each other’s conformity assessment requirements. The TPP seems to emphasize the third type of agreement. A key element of these agreements is the rule of origin. Available evidence suggests that a common regulatory approach, whether achieved through harmonization or mutual recognition, significantly increases intra-regional trade in member countries. For trade with non-members, however, the implications of harmonization depend on existing standards in non-member countries and on mutual recognition agreements on the rules of origin. With harmonization, exports of excluded developed countries to the region also increase, but exports of excluded developing countries decline. These asymmetric effects may arise because developing country firms are hurt more by an increase in the stringency of standards in some markets (as a result of harmonization) and benefit less from economies of scale in integrated markets. Mutual recognition with restrictive rules of origin reduces the probability of the relevant good being imported from non-members and reduces trade volumes (Figure 3). In contrast, mutual recognition with permissive rules of origin boosts the likelihood of trade with non-members and enhances trade volumes (Figure 4). While it is neither feasible nor desirable to restrict the freedom of countries to harmonize or mutually recognize their standards, more could be done to strike a better balance between the interests of integrated and excluded countries. TPP members could generally favor mutual recognition over harmonization, as long as regulatory objectives are met, and agree not to impose restrictive rules of origin. Just as producers in member countries would be able to supply the entire market by fulfilling requirements of any member country, so would producers in third countries. Where members do consider harmonization, they could favor the less stringent of the original standards unless there is credible evidence that these would not meet regulatory objectives. However, such an approach may be less feasible in the TPP context because of much greater divergence between the standards of TPP member countries. Figure 3 Mutual recognition with restrictive rules of origin reduces Figure 4 Mutual recognition with non-restrictive rules of origin the probability of trading with non-member countries. boosts trade with non-members. Impact on the probability of trading with non-members Impact on trade volumes with non-members Percentage point Percent 0.05 1.0 0.7 0.00 0.4 0.1 -0.05 -0.2 -0.10 -0.5 Harmonization Mutual recognition Mutual recognition Harmonization Mutual recognition Mutual recognition with restrictive without restrictive with restrictive ROO without restrictive ROO ROO ROO Source: Chen and Mattoo (2008). “Regionalism in standards: Good or Bad for Trade?” Canadian Journal O Economics 41(3): 838 -863. Notes: ROO = Rules of origin. A. Bars indicate the percentage point increase in the probability that a good is traded as a result of a common regulatory approach. B. Bars indicate the percent increase in average annual trade volume as a result of a common regulatory approach. Produced by DECPG Number 297 | March 18, 2016 Major Data Releases Fri, 11 Mar - Thu, 17 Mar 2016 Fri, 18 Mar - Thu, 24 Mar 2016 Country Date Indicator Period Actual Forecast Previous Country Date Indicator Period Previous South Africa 3/16/16 Retail Sales (Y-o-Y) JAN 3.5 % 3.8% 4.4 % UK 3/22/16 CPI (Y-o-Y) FEB 0.3 % United States 3/16/16 CPI (Y-o-Y) FEB 1.0 % 0.9 % 1.4 % United States 3/22/16 PMI Manufacturing MAR 51.3 New Zealand 3/16/16 GDP (Y-o-Y) Q4 2.3 % 1.9 % 2.3 % South Africa 3/23/16 CPI (Y-o-Y) FEB 6.2 % Austria 3/17/16 CPI (Y-o-Y) FEB 1.0 % 0.9 % 1.2 % Mexico 3/23/16 Retail Sales (Y-o-Y) JAN 3.4 % Eurozone 3/17/16 CPI (Y-o-Y) FEB -0.2 % -0.2 % 0.3 % Italy 3/24/16 Retail Sales (Y-o-Y) JAN 0.6 % Poland 3/17/16 Retail Sales (Y-o-Y) FEB 3.9 % 2.8 % 0.9 % South Korea 3/24/16 GDP (Y-o-Y) Q4 2.7 % Economic Developments indicators expressed as %ch y/y, except Industrial Production quarterly figures are %ch q/q, annualized 2014 2015 2014 2015 2016 2012 2013 2014 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Industrial Production, S.A. World 2.9 2.5 3.3 2.2 2.4 4.0 1.6 1.4 1.7 1.4 3.3 3.0 2.8 3.3 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.1 2.7 2.1 2.6 1.9 2.2 1.6 0.7 - - High Income Countries 0.6 0.3 2.0 0.3 0.4 3.2 1.9 -1.2 0.4 -0.9 1.5 1.6 1.3 1.9 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.1 0.8 1.3 0.9 1.4 0.9 1.0 0.3 -1.2 0.2 - Developing Countries 6.8 5.9 5.2 4.9 5.2 5.2 1.1 5.2 3.5 4.3 5.9 5.0 5.0 5.4 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.9 4.6 3.7 4.3 3.2 3.8 3.3 3.3 - - East Asia and Pacific 9.3 9.0 7.5 7.7 6.4 8.3 2.2 6.7 4.9 8.2 7.5 7.0 6.4 7.3 6.5 6.1 5.8 5.9 5.5 6.2 5.6 5.8 5.1 5.3 5.9 5.3 - - East Asia x. China 6.0 5.6 2.9 7.2 4.0 8.0 -1.6 3.1 3.6 8.6 5.4 3.9 2.9 4.8 4.3 2.3 6.5 5.1 1.9 3.1 4.0 3.8 2.0 3.8 4.1 2.2 5.8 - Europe and Central Asia 9.7 2.2 3.4 0.3 1.6 -0.6 2.1 5.5 3.1 6.1 2.8 2.9 2.0 1.4 -0.8 1.2 2.1 1.4 1.4 3.7 0.9 4.0 2.7 3.7 3.9 5.0 4.9 - Latin America and Caribbean -0.3 1.2 -0.3 -3.4 -0.3 -1.6 -4.7 -4.2 -5.0 -6.8 -0.9 -0.4 -1.5 -1.0 -2.2 -2.6 -2.7 -2.9 -3.2 -2.0 -3.5 -3.8 -4.4 -5.1 -5.6 -4.8 - - Middle East and N. Africa 6.0 -7.7 -1.4 0.2 27.6 0.8 -17.8 12.3 9.7 - 17.6 11.1 13.3 7.9 -0.6 -0.6 5.7 4.4 6.8 2.0 1.3 1.4 -1.2 - - - - - South Asia 1.1 1.8 2.6 4.8 0.9 -1.4 12.0 8.0 2.5 -9.5 3.5 -1.5 5.8 4.4 3.4 5.1 3.4 4.3 4.3 5.6 4.2 7.7 3.6 10.3 -1.4 0.4 - - Sub-Saharan Africa 2.8 0.7 -0.1 2.2 -6.8 9.9 -1.2 -4.8 5.6 -2.9 5.9 1.5 -0.5 0.6 -1.1 -0.1 3.8 -1.8 -0.3 -0.8 5.5 0.8 0.6 -0.9 -1.7 -0.1 -0.5 - Inflation, S.A. 1 High Income Countries 2.0 1.5 1.6 2.0 1.7 1.4 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.2 0.9 1.0 1.1 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.2 - Developing Countries 5.3 5.1 4.5 4.8 4.6 4.1 4.1 4.3 4.3 4.6 4.4 4.2 4.0 4.1 3.8 4.1 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.6 4.8 5.2 5.3 East Asia and Pacific 2.9 3.0 2.6 2.9 2.5 2.2 1.9 2.0 2.2 1.8 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 1.6 2.0 2.0 2.2 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.0 1.7 1.8 1.8 2.1 2.5 Europe and Central Asia 9.9 7.2 7.5 7.7 8.0 7.7 6.7 6.4 5.8 7.2 7.9 8.0 8.0 7.2 6.6 6.8 6.7 6.7 6.7 5.9 5.5 5.7 6.2 6.5 7.2 7.9 8.5 8.1 Latin America and Caribbean 4.8 5.1 5.1 4.9 5.3 5.3 5.8 6.4 6.9 7.5 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.4 5.7 6.2 6.1 6.3 6.6 6.9 6.9 6.9 7.2 7.5 7.8 8.0 8.0 Middle East and N. Africa 6.6 5.3 5.0 3.9 5.7 5.8 5.1 5.8 4.7 5.3 5.8 6.2 5.8 5.4 4.7 5.2 5.5 5.4 6.4 5.5 4.4 4.3 5.3 5.0 5.1 5.7 5.6 - South Asia 9.2 9.4 6.6 7.8 6.7 4.2 5.0 4.8 3.7 5.0 5.8 4.8 3.5 4.4 5.1 5.1 4.9 4.6 4.8 5.1 3.5 3.6 4.1 4.6 5.1 5.3 5.4 - Sub-Saharan Africa 9.0 6.6 6.5 6.6 6.6 6.2 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.7 6.4 6.3 6.2 6.2 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.4 6.5 6.8 6.9 6.9 7.1 7.3 7.7 8.1 8.7 - 1 Inflation is calculated as the GDP-weighted average for all groups. Trade and Finance indicators expressed as %ch y/y, except International Reserves are %ch p/p and trade quarterly figures are %ch q/q, annualized 2014 2015 2014 2015 2016 2012 2013 2014 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Exports, Nominal, US$, S.A. World 0.1 2.0 1.1 3.9 0.8 -15.0 -25.4 -3.5 -5.9 -7.5 2.7 -1.1 -4.1 -3.6 -10.3 -6.3 -12.6 -13.2 -13.1 -7.8 -13.2 -13.4 -12.1 -12.6 -10.9 -9.6 -10.6 - High Income Countries -1.5 1.5 0.7 1.2 -3.3 -17.8 -26.3 -2.3 -7.6 -8.5 0.8 -3.1 -5.8 -5.1 -11.7 -12.5 -12.7 -14.7 -14.9 -9.5 -14.3 -14.8 -12.9 -13.2 -11.0 -10.9 -9.6 - Developing Countries 4.1 3.2 1.9 10.5 10.7 -8.8 -23.5 -5.9 -2.0 -5.3 7.0 3.5 -0.1 -0.2 -7.2 8.5 -12.4 -9.8 -9.1 -4.0 -10.8 -10.2 -10.3 -11.3 -10.8 -6.6 -11.8 - East Asia and Pacific 6.2 6.5 4.6 19.1 17.1 -1.8 -14.7 -11.1 3.0 -2.1 12.5 7.8 3.2 5.2 -3.5 29.7 -11.5 -6.4 -4.3 0.7 -7.7 -6.2 -5.4 -7.9 -7.6 -3.9 -11.7 -21.4 Europe and Central Asia 3.2 -0.3 -1.5 -8.0 -11.4 -27.9 -16.5 -15.5 -9.7 -15.9 -2.4 -6.1 -10.7 -14.2 -13.7 -16.5 -18.6 -16.7 -21.5 -15.9 -21.2 -16.7 -14.9 -14.5 -15.6 -13.1 - - Latin America and Caribbean 2.4 0.6 0.0 6.9 1.5 -22.1 -17.4 -4.6 -9.8 -8.6 1.1 -3.5 -7.5 -6.2 -7.7 -12.4 -5.5 -11.9 -14.5 -7.1 -11.2 -16.0 -14.1 -10.8 -10.9 -9.0 -12.0 - Middle East and N. Africa 5.0 -11.1 -7.4 -1.5 26.0 -11.1 -59.9 - - - 2.0 16.5 -3.4 -10.0 -15.3 -21.9 -18.1 -11.1 - - - - - - - - - - South Asia -1.8 6.2 2.6 8.1 3.0 -2.5 -45.5 3.2 -10.0 -5.9 0.0 -6.1 9.3 -1.0 -7.3 -12.4 -17.2 -12.9 -16.6 -10.1 -10.2 -15.7 -22.4 -15.0 -22.8 -12.3 -11.3 - Sub-Saharan Africa -2.4 -1.1 -5.5 -13.9 0.3 -20.1 -52.7 10.3 -20.8 - -2.0 -7.6 -7.5 -8.9 -25.2 -28.7 -18.8 -23.3 -15.40 -19.8 -23.1 -21.2 -28.2 - - - - - Imports, Nominal, US$, S.A. World 0.6 1.5 1.2 -1.5 -0.8 -15.3 -29.3 -2.7 -4.5 -7.6 3.8 -2.1 -4.1 -3.5 -13.3 -12.9 -11.4 -14.2 -15.2 -9.0 -13.1 -12.6 -15.2 -13.2 -10.4 -11.5 - - High Income Countries -1.0 0.5 1.8 0.3 -4.3 -17.3 -27.2 -2.7 -3.7 -8.5 2.3 -3.4 -5.2 -4.0 -13.1 -13.0 -12.4 -14.9 -15.2 -10.2 -14.5 -12.0 -13.4 -11.9 -9.6 -11.8 - - Developing Countries 4.9 4.1 -0.1 -5.8 7.9 -10.5 -33.8 -3.0 -6.4 -5.6 7.3 0.8 -1.4 -2.6 -13.7 -12.8 -9.0 -12.5 -15.3 -6.0 -9.5 -13.8 -19.3 -16.4 -12.3 -10.8 - - East Asia and Pacific 5.6 6.1 -0.4 -12.5 9.4 -12.5 -37.1 1.1 -3.3 -1.5 6.7 2.6 -5.3 -4.6 -17.4 -16.9 -9.5 -14.0 -15.7 -5.3 -9.0 -14.2 -19.5 -18.1 -8.5 -8.3 - - Europe and Central Asia 0.7 2.5 -6.2 -8.1 -7.9 -9.7 -28.1 -19.8 -15.2 1.3 -5.5 -8.3 -9.4 -10.6 -15.4 -13.5 -12.7 -17.5 -18.4 -14.3 -15.0 -17.7 -22.6 -14.5 -18.4 -15.4 - - Latin America and Caribbean 3.8 3.8 1.7 2.0 3.5 -6.7 -17.1 -15.9 -6.4 -15.7 8.8 -3.1 2.5 4.7 -7.2 -7.0 -0.4 -10.5 -14.2 -3.4 -9.6 -12.0 -13.3 -13.0 -11.5 -16.9 - - Middle East and N. Africa 10.8 4.0 1.4 -6.5 11.9 -17.7 -23.3 - - - 5.1 -1.6 -4.3 -2.2 -11.1 -7.0 -11.3 -7.5 - - - - - - - - - - South Asia 4.0 -3.7 1.2 7.5 29.3 -10.1 -53.7 22.4 1.5 -15.9 23.7 6.8 21.9 -1.8 -12.2 -13.3 -12.8 -7.4 -11.9 -10.3 -9.1 -11.3 -24.1 -18.4 -25.4 -3.9 - - Sub-Saharan Africa 3.8 5.9 5.0 18.1 -1.9 3.2 -26.9 - - - 9.0 4.5 3.1 7.8 -1.9 1.9 -9.9 -10.7 - - - - - - - - - - International Reserves, US$ High Income Countries 9.2 3.2 -1.9 0.7 -1.9 -1.5 -0.4 0.4 0.0 -1.6 -1.4 -0.7 0.1 -0.8 0.3 -0.1 -0.6 0.8 -0.3 -0.1 -0.6 0.2 0.4 -0.5 -1.2 0.2 0.2 - Developing Countries 5.5 8.7 -0.2 1.5 -1.9 -1.7 -2.5 -0.1 -4.0 -3.5 -1.7 -0.7 -0.2 -0.8 -0.7 -0.2 -1.6 0.7 -0.6 -0.2 -1.0 -1.8 -1.3 0.3 -2.0 -1.8 -2.1 -0.2 East Asia and Pacific 4.5 12.2 0.2 1.2 -2.5 -1.4 -2.8 -0.8 -4.9 -4.4 -2.1 -0.8 -0.3 -0.4 -0.8 -0.2 -1.9 0.6 -0.9 -0.4 -1.3 -2.4 -1.2 0.4 -2.3 -2.6 -2.7 -0.3 Europe and Central Asia 11.4 3.5 -8.2 4.2 -0.5 -7.2 -6.2 1.0 1.3 -4.4 -1.4 -1.5 -1.1 -4.7 -1.7 -2.8 -1.9 0.9 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 -0.8 0.0 -1.5 -3.0 -0.7 - Latin America and Caribbean 9.9 1.8 3.6 3.3 1.5 -1.8 -0.1 0.7 -3.2 -1.3 0.2 -0.1 0.4 -2.2 0.4 -0.6 0.0 0.7 -0.1 0.1 -0.4 -0.8 -2.0 -0.8 -1.3 0.8 -0.2 -0.1 Middle East and N. Africa 5.9 3.0 -10.2 -2.2 -3.8 -2.8 -6.0 1.6 - - -2.3 -0.3 0.3 -2.9 -3.3 -0.4 -2.3 1.7 -0.64 0.2 - - - - - - - - South Asia 0.4 -0.2 11.3 5.6 -0.6 2.1 5.9 4.7 -0.8 0.9 -1.4 0.5 -0.3 1.9 1.8 3.2 0.8 1.5 1.7 1.5 -0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.9 -0.4 0.7 -0.9 -0.4 Produced by DECPG (Anh Mai Bui). Number 297 | March 18, 2016 Financial Markets 1 2015 2016 MRV 2014 2015 Q1 Q2 Q3 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Interest rates and LIBOR (%) U.S. Fed Funds Effective 0.09 0.13 0.11 0.13 0.14 0.11 0.12 0.12 0.13 0.13 0.15 0.14 0.12 0.12 0.24 0.36 0.37 0.37 ECB repo 0.16 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.00 US$ LIBOR 3-months 0.23 0.32 0.26 0.28 0.31 0.27 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.29 0.32 0.33 0.32 0.37 0.54 0.62 0.62 0.64 EURIBOR 3-months 0.06 -0.02 0.05 -0.01 -0.03 0.03 0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.02 -0.03 -0.04 -0.05 -0.09 -0.13 -0.15 -0.18 -0.23 US 10-yr Treasury yield 2.53 2.12 1.97 2.15 2.20 2.04 1.92 2.19 2.35 2.32 2.14 2.14 2.04 2.26 2.23 2.11 1.77 1.91 German Bund, 10 yr 1.24 0.54 0.35 0.53 0.70 0.26 0.16 0.58 0.83 0.76 0.66 0.68 0.55 0.55 0.59 0.51 0.23 0.31 Spreads (basis points) JP Morgan Emerging Markets 330 412 425 380 423 411 388 369 384 397 397 442 437 413 446 413 413 459 Asia 206 224 219 201 233 208 206 195 203 212 212 250 246 235 255 235 235 256 Europe 287 338 399 336 345 384 350 327 330 328 328 347 332 294 310 294 294 331 Latin America & Caribbean 407 540 537 487 560 521 488 471 504 527 527 585 582 553 600 553 553 608 Middle East 388 461 449 420 447 443 441 409 410 420 420 479 502 503 512 503 503 553 Africa 323 422 373 355 425 371 361 345 358 374 374 472 490 482 563 482 482 593 Stock Indices (end of period) 2 Global (MSCI) 417 399 425 424 382 425 436 435 424 427 403 382 411 407 399 375 372 390 High-Income ($ Index) 1710 1663 1741 1736 1582 1741 1778 1779 1736 1766 1659 1582 1706 1694 1663 1562 1547 1621 United States (S&P-500) 2059 2044 2068 2063 1920 2068 2086 2107 2063 2104 1992 1920 2079 2080 2044 1940 1932 2027 Euro Area (S&P-350$) 1401 1474 1624 1552 1405 1624 1618 1630 1552 1614 1478 1405 1523 1558 1474 1381 1347 1377 Japan (Nikkei-225) 16292 16292 19207 20236 17388 19207 19520 20563 20236 20585 18812 17388 19083 19921 … 17518 15989 16974 Developing Markets (MSCI) 956 794 975 972 792 975 1048 1004 972 902 882 792 848 814 794 742 740 791 EM Asia 457 404 481 475 391 481 514 499 475 440 433 391 422 408 404 374 369 393 EM Europe 297 244 302 311 259 302 338 320 311 293 285 259 273 263 244 237 241 262 EM Europe & Middle East 257 211 258 266 226 258 286 271 266 253 246 226 235 222 211 202 208 223 EM Latin America & Caribbean 2728 1830 2451 2517 1895 2451 2693 2496 2517 2305 2206 1895 2007 1919 1830 1744 1804 1982 Exchange Rates (LCU / USD) High Income Euro Area 0.75 0.90 0.89 0.90 0.90 0.92 0.92 0.90 0.9 0.91 0.89 0.89 0.89 0.93 0.92 0.92 0.90 0.89 Japan 105.89 121.00 119.16 121.38 122.06 120.37 119.53 120.87 123.7 123.39 122.71 120.10 120.01 122.61 121.6 118.4 114.4 113.24 Developing Brazil 2.35 3.33 2.87 3.07 3.55 3.15 3.04 3.06 3.1 3.23 3.53 3.89 3.88 3.78 3.87 4.06 3.97 3.63 China 6.16 6.29 6.24 6.20 6.31 6.24 6.20 6.20 6.2 6.21 6.34 6.38 6.35 6.37 6.45 6.57 6.55 6.51 Egypt 7.08 7.70 7.49 7.61 7.82 7.60 7.60 7.62 7.6 7.81 7.83 7.83 7.91 7.91 7.83 7.83 7.82 7.82 India 61.03 64.14 62.24 63.43 64.97 62.48 62.69 63.76 63.8 63.65 65.09 66.16 65.04 66.15 66.54 67.31 68.22 67.07 Russia 38.58 61.34 62.87 52.69 63.62 60.13 52.82 50.65 54.6 57.53 66.23 67.10 63.31 65.01 70.19 77.36 77.23 71.48 South Africa 10.85 12.77 11.74 12.08 13.03 12.08 11.99 11.97 12.3 12.46 12.94 13.67 13.48 14.14 15.04 16.30 15.79 15.37 Memo: USA nominal effective rate110.58 0.00 120.07 121.87 125.85 122.10 121.76 121.40 122.4 123.89 126.13 127.52 126.92 128.15 0.00 0.00 0.00 131.55 1 MRV = Most Recent Value. 2 MSCI Indices for Asia, Africa, and Europe and C. Asia, for 2008 are calculated from February-December, due to data availability. 3 Change expressed in levels for interest rates and spreads; percent change for stock market and exchange rates. Commodity Prices 2015 2015 2016 MRV 2014 2015 Q1 Q2 Q3 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Oil price, $/b, nominal 1 96 51 52 60 48 53 57 63 61 54 45 46 47 43 37 30 31 38 Non - Oil Index 2 75 62 66 64 60 65 64 65 63 63 59 58 59 56 56 54 56 59 3 Metals and Minerals Index 88 68 74 74 65 73 73 76 72 67 64 65 64 59 57 56 59 60 Baltic Dry Index 4 1103 711 614 629 975 576 591 596 699 975 1061 889 790 582 510 391 307 384 1 Simple average of Brent, Dubai and WTI. 2 Base Date = Jan 3, 2011 due to data availability. The Index component combination in the Weekly tables differs from that of 3 Base Date = Jan 4, 2010 due to data availability. The Index component combination in the Weekly tables differs from that of 4 Base Date = May 1, 1985 Produced by DECPG (Anh Mai Bui). Number 297 | March 18, 2016