Interactive report available at www.worldbank.org/ transport/resilience Moving Toward Climate-Resilient Transport The World Bank’s Experience from Building Adaptation into Programs Jane Olga Ebinger and Nancy Vandycke Moving Toward Climate-Resilient Transport The World Bank’s Experience from Building Adaptation into Programs Jane Olga Ebinger Nancy Vandycke © 2015 Transport & ICT Global Practice The World Bank Group 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433 Internet: http://www.worldbank.org/transport, http://www.worldbank.org/ict Standard Disclaimer This volume is a product of staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/ The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. 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CONTENTS Foreword . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ix 4.3 Resilient Infrastructure Solutions . . . . . . . . . 22 Acknowledgements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . x 4.3.1 Screening Tools for Climate and Disaster Acronyms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xi Risk for Use in Early Stages of Executive Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xiii Investments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 4.3.2 Decision-support Systems for Evaluating 1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 and Including Impacts on Economic and Social Continuity of Alternative Transport 2 Vulnerability of Transport Systems to Network Investments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 Climate Risks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 4.3.3 Cost-Risk Assessment Framework under a Given Climate Change Scenario . . . . . . . 24 4.3.4 Robust Decision Making under 3 Responding to Demand for Adaptation Uncertainty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 Action . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 4.4 Enabling Environment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 4 Toward Climate-Resilient Transport 4.5 Postdisaster Risk and Recovery Support . . . 29 Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 4.1 Framework to Integrate Climate Resilience 5 Opportunities and the Way Forward . . 33 into Transport Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 4.2 Sectoral and Spatial Planning . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 Annex 1. Climate Finance Tracking . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 4.2.1 Economics Approach to Vulnerability Annex 2. W  orld Bank Adaptation Projects Assessment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 in the Transport Sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41 4.2.2 Engineering Approach to Vulnerability Assessment and Resilience Planning . . . . 19 Annex 3. E  nhancing Resilience of Belize’s 4.2.3 A Systematic Condition Assessment Transport Network through a of Infrastructure through Vulnerability Participatory Evaluation and and Risk Assessment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 Prioritization Process . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46 4.2.4 Vulnerabilities Assessment Using Socioeconomic Criticality and Flood Susceptibility in Transport Networks . . . . 20 MOVING TOWARD CLIMATE-RESILIENT TRANSPORT vii LIST OF BOXES, FIGURES, AND TABLES Box 1. Terms and Concepts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 Figure 2. V  ulnerability to the Risks of Box 2.  isk Management and Climate Change R Climate Change and Other Global Adaptation for the Transport Sector in Challenges . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 the Republic of Moldova’s INDC . . . . . . . 12 Figure 3. W  orld Bank Transport Commitments Box 3.  ntegrating Climate and Disaster Risk I with Climate Co-Benefits, Fiscal Years Considerations into Systematic Country 2011–15 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Diagnostics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 Figure 4. Climate Change in the Context Box 4.  ntegrating Climate Risk and Resilience I of the Useful Life of Transport in Development Planning . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 Infrastructure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Box 5. Accessibility and Resilience of Road Figure 5. Framework to Integrate Climate Networks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 Resilience in Transport Systems . . . . . . . 17 Box 6. Vulnerability Assessment and Risk Figure 6. C  limate and Disaster Risk Screening Planning for Roads in Morocco . . . . . . . . 20 Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 Box 7. Integrating Disaster Risk into the Figure 7. C  ost-Benefit Assessment of Options Lifecycle Management of Transport for Samoa to Reduce Annual Expected Infrastructure in South Asia . . . . . . . . . . . 21 Losses from Coastal Flooding . . . . . . . . . 24 Box 8. Emerging Lessons from Screening Figure 8. F  lood Susceptibility Analysis Transport Projects for Climate Risk Approach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47 in IDA Projects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 Figure 9. C  riticality Is a Result of the Seven Box 9. Building Resilience in Can Tho City, Criteria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47 Vietnam . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 Figure 10. P  riority Areas for Climate Resilience Box 10.  oward Climate-Resilient Infrastructure T Intervention Based on Socioeconomic Systems in Pacific Island Countries . . . . 26 Criticality and Flood Susceptibility . . . . 48 Box 11.  ecision Making under Uncertainty D Table 1. E  xamples of Potential Impacts of in Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 Climate Change on Transport Systems . 6 Box 12. Risk Planning and Resilient Table 2. V  ietnam, Can Tho City: Costs to Transport Infrastructure Codes in Madagascar . . . 28 from Flooding . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 Table 3. T  ransport-Specific Adaptation Action Box 13.  oving toward Climate Resilience M in Intended Nationally Determined through the Disaster Risk-Management Contributions (INDCs) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Cycle . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 Table 4. MDBs Adaptation Finance . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13  Figure 1. Framework for Defining Table 5.  Categories of Adaptation Actions . . . . . . 18 Vulnerability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Table 6. Risk versus Resilience Approaches . . . . 29 viii FOREWORD T he economic, social, and environmental benefits of assets is based on historical records, they may underperform transport infrastructure and services are well recognized. on several levels under new climatic stresses.    A road can make a difference between surviving and thriving.  In South Sudan, the World Bank helped build rural Countries clearly need to invest in resiliency. In the run-up to roads—before they were built, farmers could not think beyond the Twenty-First Conference of the Parties to the UN Frame- subsistence farming because they had no means to bring their work Convention on Climate Change (COP21), 84 percent of crops to market. New routes and development corridors can the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions submit- make a difference between isolation and connectivity to global ted by 147 Parties to the convention address economy-wide economics and social development. adaptation. However, only 16 Parties identify transport as a priority area for adaptation.2 This highlights the need for more Less well understood is the role of transport in minimizing awareness of transport in managing climate change so it can effects of disasters, enabling recovery, and improving pre- continue to deliver social and economic benefits.  paredness. As the climate changes and countries suffer more frequent extreme weather events, that role of transport is At the World Bank, we recognize that countries’ needs for end- becoming crucial. Flooding of the Kosi River in Nepal in 2008 ing extreme poverty, boosting shared prosperity, and address- cut off the East-West Highway, interrupting the flow of goods ing climate change are enormous. Today, more than one-fourth and services and affecting medical referrals to the main hos- of the Bank’s transport commitments support mitigation and pital. It took a full year for the highway to be fully restored.  adaptation to climate change, and we are working with clients to find ways to respond to the expected rising demand for cli- Countries are investing massively in transport infrastructure— mate action. In October 2015, the World Bank Group pledged estimated globally at $1.4 trillion to $2.1 trillion per year1—and to increase its climate finance by one-third, to 28 percent of such spending is likely to rise to meet aspirations for greater annual commitments, by 2020. Supporting the transition to mobility and connectivity. Growing climate risks will impact the low-carbon, resilient transport networks and services will be entire transport value chain, from its location, design, and con- an important part of this engagement.  struction standards to the services it provides. These risks raise the question of whether, and by how much, new or existing Pierre Guislain transport infrastructure, whose lifetime spans decades, should Senior Director, Transport & ICT be adapted to new climatic conditions. If the design of these World Bank 1 Lefevre, Leipziger, and Raifman (2014). 2 UNFCCC (2015b). Making Transport Climate-friendly MOVING TOWARD CLIMATE-RESILIENT TRANSPORT ix ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS T his report was prepared by the Transport, and Informa- Fonse Pedroso, Beatriz Pozueta, Carolina Rogelis, and Vladi- tion and Communications Technology Global Practice mir Stenek. Important input and comments were gratefully under Pierre Guislain, Senior Director. The lead authors received from Lucie Blyth, Pablo Benitez, Carlos Borges, Richard are Jane Olga Ebinger and Nancy Vandycke. The team ben- Damania, Adam Diehl, Nathan Engle, Steven Hammer, Kanta efited from substantive contributions from Habiba Gitay, John Kumari, and Sara Sultan. The authors thank Marianne Fay, Jose Allen Rogers, Chris Bennett, Sofia Bettencourt, Ana Bucher, Luis Irigoyen, Michel Kerf, Nicolas Peltier, Karla Gonzales, Aure- Marion Cayetano, Raffaello Cervigni, Keren Charles, Frederico lio Menendez, Supee Theravaninthorn, Juan Gaviria, Boutheina Ferreira, Roger Gorham, Melanie Kappes, Yoonhee Kim, Andrew Guermazi, and Randeep Sudan. Artwork, design, and images Losos, Sean David Michaels, Carolina Monsalve, Ian Noble, acquired through Critical Stages LLC, and the World Bank. x ACRONYMS °C Degrees Centigrade GFDRR Global Facility for Disaster Recovery and Reconstruction °F Degrees Fahrenheit GHG Greenhouse Gas Emissions AAA/ESW Analytic and Advisory Activities including Economic and Sector Work GIS Geographic Information System AASHTO The American Association of State Gt Gigatons (thousand million tons) Highway and Transportation GTIDR Transport & ICT Global Practice of the ADB Asian Development Bank World Bank AR5 Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC HGV Heavy Goods Vehicles CAPEX Capital Expenses IBRD International Bank for Reconstruction and Development CBA Cost/Benefit Analysis ICT Internet Communications Technology CEO Chief Executive Officer IDA International Development Association CO2 Carbon Dioxide IFC International Finance Corporation COP United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Conference of the Parties INDC Intended Nationally Determined Contributions CPF Country Partnership Framework IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate CRU Climate Research Unit Change DMU Decision-Making Under Uncertainty LDC Least Developed Countries DRC Democratic Republic of Congo LULUCF Land Use and Land-Use Change FHWA The US Federal Highway Administration MCE Multi Criteria Evaluation GCCDR The World Bank’s Climate Change MDB Multilateral Development Bank Crosscutting Solutions Area NAPA National Adaptation Programmes of Action GCM General (worldwide) Circulation Model NGO Nongovernmental Organization GDP Gross Domestic Product ND-GAIN University of Notre Dame Global GEF Global Environment Facility Adaptation Index O-D Origen-Destination MOVING TOWARD CLIMATE-RESILIENT TRANSPORT xi OECD Organization for Economic Co-operation SIDS Small Island Developing States and Development T&I World Bank Transport & ICT Global O&M Operations and Maintenance Practice OPEX Operational Expenses TTL Task Team Leader PAD Project Approval Documents UNDP United Nations Development Programme PICs Pacific Island Countries UNEP United Nations Environment Programme PPCR Pilot Program for Climate Resilience UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change RCM Regional Climate Model USAID United States Agency for International RCP Representative Concentration Pathway Development RDM Robust-Decision Making USD, US$ United States Dollars Rio+20 United Nations Conference on Sustainable V20 Vulnerable Twenty Group of Ministers Development held in Brazil on 20–22 of Finance June 2012 WBG World Bank Group SAR South Asia Region SCD Systematic Country Diagnostic xii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY T ransport infrastructure and services are critical for devel- to build resilience. And 100 of the 147 Parties participating opment. They enable the distribution of goods and in the November–December 2015 UN conference on climate services within and between countries. They facilitate change have adaptation among their priorities. Under a com- access to jobs, markets, schools, and hospitals. They support mitment made at Rio+20, the multilateral development banks communities and countries’ efforts to rebound from disasters (MDBs) have been scaling up finance for sustainable transport, and high-impact climate events. with average annual lending of $25 billion per year. They are ready to do more for climate change. At the World Bank, we are In developing countries, the volume of transported passenger ready to respond to client needs. In October 2015, the World and freight has exploded, along with the demand for greater Bank Group pledged to increase its climate work by one-third interconnectedness and better mobility. But the heavily within five years, to 28 percent of its annual commitment, and debated question is how these aspirations for greater inter- the increase will include enhanced support for transport. connectedness and mobility can be met in a sustainable way. Building resilience in transport will require tools and Climate change is a defining challenge of our time. Actions to approaches to allow climate and disaster risks to be systemati- reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and stabilize warm- cally identified, prioritized, and built into investment planning ing at 2 degrees Celsius will fall short if they do not include the and decision-making processes. This report takes stock of the transport sector. Transport contributes to GHG emissions; but it World Bank’s efforts and experience in building resilient trans- is also vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, and action port systems. The tools and approaches discussed here—from is needed to adapt transport systems to better withstand those upstream sectoral and spatial planning to postdisaster risk impacts. Climate change is putting at risk the lives of millions of and recovery support, from infrastructure system solutions people worldwide, many coastal cities, and trillions of dollars and support to building an enabling environment—have all of investment in transport infrastructure and services. been piloted, and all contribute to reducing climate risks and Access to transport services has become so woven into the increasing the resilience of transport systems. However, most fabric of communities and economic development that service of these efforts are new and evolving, and large gaps in knowl- disruptions can have far-reaching implications for entire com- edge and capacity remain. munities, countries, and regions—in developed and develop- The World Bank will leverage its expertise, convening power, ing countries. A transport system that cannot withstand the and global engagement to aid policy makers and practitio- emerging impacts of climate change will prove burdensome. ners in an environment rendered deeply uncertain by climate It will impose high costs for maintenance and repair; limit com- change. In doing so, the World Bank will join forces with the munity access to jobs, schools, and hospitals; and cause large rest of the transport community to raise the dual awareness economic losses. Ensuring the climate resilience of transport that transport is vulnerable to climate change and that it investments is also critical in allowing other sectors to quickly is critical to building the climate resilience of communities rebound after natural disasters and climate-related shocks. and countries. We will build this into our dialogue with client The demand from client countries for adaptation action is countries to ensure that potential climate change and disaster growing. The 20 countries most vulnerable to climate change risks and opportunities are identified and robust solutions are have come together to plan economic and financial measures developed. MOVING TOWARD CLIMATE-RESILIENT TRANSPORT xiii “ W  e are committed to scaling up our 1 support for developing countries to battle climate change. As we move closer to Paris, countries have identified trillions of dollars of climate-related needs. The Bank, with the support of our members, will respond ambitiously to this great challenge. ” —Jim Yong Kim, President, The World Bank Group Introduction T ransport plays a critical role in economic development. impacts on seasonal water resources will affect agriculture Infrastructure and services are critical to development and energy supplies. and form the backbone of economic and community activities at the local, regional, national, and international lev- These changes will have serious implications for transport els. They enable the distribution of goods and services within infrastructure, operations, and maintenance and the com- and between countries and ease access to schools, markets, munities they serve. Direct impacts include temporary or and health services. Food security and vaccination programs, permanent flooding of roads, damage to bridges and ports, for example, require functioning roads and railways and access increased maintenance costs due to damage, and service dis- to ports and airports to move critical supplies to people. ruption. Severe disruptions can isolate communities for long periods, restrict access to key markets and economic hubs, While there is agreement on the need for greater connectivity, and lead to economic losses and loss of lives. Access to reliable there is much debate on how to deliver it given the challenges transportation services has become so ingrained in the fabric from climate change. The contribution of the transport sector of strong communities and economies that disruptions can to increasing greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) and fossil fuel have far-reaching implications on entire regions—in both the consumption have been at the center of global discussions on developing and developed worlds. climate change. Transport is among the fastest growing sectors for CO2 emissions from fuel combustion, and it is estimated to A fully defined adaptation program for the transport sector contribute approximately 23 percent of total energy-related would factor climate change into investment planning and CO2 emissions in 2010. Transport enables development, but decision making and new approaches to deal with uncertainty causes traffic congestion, pollution, noise, and road accidents, (see Box 1).3 A community’s resilience certainly requires robust that together bring about 2  percent to 10  percent reduc- transport. But properly planned and used, transport can itself tion in country-level GDP. Reversing this trend in emissions powerfully advance the resilience of the community: First, used growth will require action to decouple emissions growth from strategically, transport can serve as a tool to steer population GDP growth—driven by passenger and freight activity. This growth and settlement patterns over time to reduce vulner- includes policies to encourage investment in low-carbon trans- ability. Second, transport has a critical role to play before and port modes; programs to curb energy and emissions growth; after climate-related events in helping facilitate regenerative and action to transform the way countries manage transport responses from other sectors, including energy, water, and services. trade. It will also require action to adapt to the current impacts of climate change, as well as those that are likely to occur due to past and projected GHG emissions. Failing to substantially cut GHG emissions will have increasingly severe consequences: 3 Models based on historical climate information can no longer be used extreme heat will become more frequent and impact a larger to prioritize and make investment decisions. Similarly, climate models can area of land, precipitation and water resources will change, and project at best broad climate trends over large temporal and geographical diseases will move into new ranges. As sea levels rise, the risks scales and are not meant to provide detailed location specific outcomes for shorter time periods of a decade or less. Even with finer-scale data or new from storm surges and tropical cyclones will rise, particularly observations from the next few decades, much uncertainty remains because for highly exposed small island states and low-lying coastal of development pathways, the associated emissions, and the likely changes zones. Glacial melt poses an increasing risk of flooding, and to the climate system. MOVING TOWARD CLIMATE-RESILIENT TRANSPORT 1 BOX 1  Terms and Concepts Adaptation  constitutes “The process of adjustment to actual or expected climate and its effects. In human sys- tems, adaptation seeks to moderate or avoid harm or exploit beneficial opportunities. In some natural systems, human intervention may facilitate adjustment to expected climate and its effects.” (IPCC AR5 Glossary) Resilience is the “capacity of social, economic and environmental systems to cope with a hazardous event or trend or disturbance, responding or reorganizing in ways that maintain their essential functioning, identity and structure, while also maintaining the capacity for adaptation, learning and transformation.” (IPCC AR5 Glossary) Deep uncertainty i s defined as uncertainty that occurs when parties to a decision do not know or cannot agree on (1) models that relate the key forces that shape the future, (2) probability distributions of key variables and parameters in these models, and/or (3) the value of alternative outcomes. In general, most of future socio- economic conditions (population, prices) are deeply uncertain, and so is climate change. (Lempert et al. 2003) Decision making under uncertainty  methodologies are state-of-the-arts methods that help plan for robust projects, despite these deep uncertainties about the future. They move away from relying on predictions of the future in project design and place the decision back into the center by asking the question “what are the future conditions that make my system (e.g. road network) fail?”. The systems or projects are stress-tested under hun- dreds of combinations of plausible future conditions—that include changing climate conditions. Once the main risks and the specific vulnerability thresholds of the system are identified, planners can evaluate them and explore options that may reduce these risks. Recognizing the need to build resilience into transport infra- makes the case for a more systematic approach in responding structure and systems and the potential for using transport to to communities and governments that ask, “How can we reach help communities adapt to climate change, this report takes development, poverty, and shared-prosperity goals while con- stock of emerging efforts and experience of the World Bank. It sidering current and future climate change?”4 4 Economics of Climate Adaptation Working Group (2013). 2 “ 2 Countries are investing massively in transport infrastructure and such spending is likely to rise to meet aspirations from greater mobility and connectivity. Growing climate risks will impact the entire transport value chain. These risks raise the question of whether, and by how much, new or existing transport infrastructure, should be adapted to them. ” Vulnerability of Transport Systems to Climate Risks S ome of the effects of climate change on transport sys- The concept of exposure is straightforward: “it is determined by tems are visible today (see Figure 2). In Russia, warmer the type, magnitude, timing, and speed of climate events and temperatures are softening permafrost areas and begin- variation to which a system is exposed (for example, changing ning to destabilize the ground under a number of facilities, onset of the rainy season, higher minimum winter tempera- including a power station, an airport runway, and residential tures, floods, storms, and heat waves)” (Fay, Ebinger, and Block, buildings. In addition, extreme temperatures are contributing 2010). It can be difficult to characterize the exposure of a local- to the loss of about 200 kilometers of road every year in the ity or a transport network, quantitatively or qualitatively, in a Kyrgyz Republic, which also reports other contributing factors, way that is useful to decision makers. But a qualitative under- including difficult terrain, excessive loads, and a lack of road standing of current changes and projected trends, however maintenance funding (Vandycke 2013). uncertain, is an important first step. The vulnerability of a transport system is a function of the The sensitivity of a system depends on its structural potential impact of climate change—based on location and characteristics—for example, engineered dirt or gravel roads thus its exposure and sensitivity to climate change—and its are more likely to become impassable than paved roads during adaptive capacity, broadly defined to include both providers heavy rains, and poorly maintained assets of any type are more and users (Figure 1).5 sensitive than better maintained assets. Location also matters: settlements and hence transport assets are often concentrated in coastal zones, where climate hazards are particularly chal- FIGURE 1  Framework for Defining Vulnerability lenging. For example a paved coastal road in the tropics could be exposed to sea-level rise and higher storm surges; hotter, longer, and more frequent heat waves; more frequent or more exposure sensitivity intense storms; or alternating periods of dry weather and more intense rainfall. The potential impacts of climate change on transport systems are well known (Table 1). Although many impacts will be felt potential adaptive in the long term, they can also lead to damage and disruption impact capacity in the short term and increase the frequency, impact, and risk of high-cost climate-related events. How potential impacts translate into actual impacts depends not only on the exposure and sensitivity of the transport VULNERABILITY system to such events, but also on its adaptive capacity—its resources for coping with impacts and minimizing damage. In Source: Australian Government, 2005 (graphic reproduced from Fay, Ebinger, and Block, 2010). the coastal road example, adaptive capacity could include the ability to close the road and reroute traffic with minimal delay; mobilization of resources to proactively maintain drainage and pavement; and planning to ensure that new infrastructure is 5 Kopp, Block, and Iimi (2013, pp. 49–52). not sited in exposed areas. MOVING TOWARD CLIMATE-RESILIENT TRANSPORT 5 TABLE 1  Examples of Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Transport Systems Climate Hazard Potential Impact Sea Level Rise, Storm • Damage to port infrastructure and disruptions in port operations and shipping traffic. Surge, and Flooding • Loss of coastal waterway systems and/or disappearance of barrier islands. • Damage to, or inaccessibility of, low-lying coastal infrastructure such as roads and railway beds, tunnels, and underground rail/subway corridors (Titus 2002). • Aggravated coastal flooding as storm surges build on a higher base and reach further inland leading to road, rail, and airport closures, for example (U.S. Climate Change Science Program 2008). Strong Wind • Greater likelihood of infrastructure failure and disruptions of transport operations for all modes and Storms of traffic. • Increased threats to bridges. The structural integrity of long span bridges is vulnerable to strong winds as are auxiliary infrastructure such as road signs, traffic signals, overpasses, train stations, and toll collection stations. • Damage to overhead lines for railways, power supply, signs, lighting features, and increased tree fall leading to the closure of railway tracks and roads. • Delays and cancelation of flights and unreliable air travel services. • Damage to cranes and terminal facilities. • Safety hazards for vehicles. Increasing • Flooding of roads, railways, and tunnels causing traffic disruptions and road/rail closure. Precipitation Intensity • Slope failures and landslides (road/rail). • Washout of gravel and earth roads and railway tracks. • Erosion and scouring or washout of bridges or other works for waterway crossings. • Increased sediment loading of drainage works leading to increased maintenance requirements and costs. • Potential increases in sudden snow loading on bridges and overhead or suspended works. • Potential for sudden icing of drainage works causing flooding. Changes in • Increased drought, reducing the navigability of inland waterways. Precipitation • Settlement of infrastructure and road beds due to increased aridity or lower water table (Averages) affecting the base stability. Extreme Heat • Increased pavement deterioration, softening, and cracking, rutting, and bleeding. • Rail track deformation and buckling. • Thermal expansion of bridge joints. • Increased energy consumption due to refrigeration of transported goods and use of air conditioning. • Increased forest fires resulting in land infrastructure closure and failure. Rising (Average) • Longer shipping seasons in the Arctic, opening of new shipping routes. Temperatures • Reduced winter maintenance costs. • Longer construction season. • Decreased viability of ice roads. Extreme Cold • Increased thermal cracking of pavements and runways. • Brittle failures of railways tracks. Increased Freeze Thaw • Increased fatigue failure for most infrastructure, particularly roads. Cycles • Weathering of the vehicle fleet. Permafrost • Base stability of most infrastructure is affected resulting in substantial failures. Degradation Source: Adapted from Ziad Nakat, 2010, “Climate change adaptation in the transport sector,” background paper for Marianne Fay, Rachel I. Block, Jane Ebinger (eds), Adapting to Climate Change in Europe and Central Asia, World Bank Group. 6 FIGURE 2  Vulnerability to the Risks of Climate Change and Other Global Challenges Better Worse No data IBRD 41941 | OCTOBER 2015 This map was produced by the Map Design Unit of The World Bank. The boundaries, colors, denominations and any other information shown on this map do not imply, on the part of The World Bank Group, any judgment on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. The ND-GAIN index summarizes a country’s vulnerability to climate change and other global challenges. It uses six measures describing exposure, sensitivity and capacity in each of six major sectors; food, water, health, ecosystems, human habitat and infrastructure. These 36 measures are combined to give a vulnerability score for each country.  The ND-GAIN index also includes an estimate of a country’s readiness to absorb and apply resources to actions to adapt to reduce its vulnerability. Readiness is based on 9 measures that indicate its economic, governance and social capacities. The figure shows the overall vulnerability score based on 2013 data. Source: University of Notre Dame Global Adaptation Index (ND-GAIN). A transport system that has low resilience to actual and is generally limited. Costs for strengthening infrastructure expected climate change can impose high costs for mainte- against wind, rain, and floods were 10–20 percent higher at nance and repair. For example, with more intense and frequent the local level, due to the inclusion of social impacts, than precipitation, roads may deteriorate faster or bridges may col- disaggregated costs based on global estimates. lapse. And such vulnerability can have far-reaching social, fis- cal and economic consequences, impairing people’s ability to The IPCC finds shortcomings in data, methods, and coverage access jobs, markets, schools, and hospitals. for available studies of global adaptation costs, funding, and investment (Chambwera et al. 2014). But it also highlights some Quantifying the costs of climate change for transport systems agreement on core considerations when conducting economic and the benefits of increasing resilience are critical for the analysis of adaptation: broad coverage of climate stressors; dialogue with countries and investors about long-term plans. multiple alternatives or conditional groupings of adaptation Global estimates suggest that the cost to adapt to climate options; rigorous economic analysis of costs and benefits; and change in a 2oC-warmer world is in the range of $70 billion a strong focus on practical decision making that considers to $100 billion per year by 2050 (World Bank 2010b). Infra- drivers of uncertainty. structure, which is particularly sensitive to changes in annual and maximum monthly rainfall, accounts for a large share of As the climate changes, the costs to transport networks of the adaptation costs. Urban infrastructure—drainage, public retaining the original infrastructure can be seen by disag- buildings, and similar assets—account for about 54 percent gregating them into maintenance, repair, and construction; of the infrastructure adaptation costs, followed by railways disruption; social; and economic. The case of Can Tho City in at 18 percent, and roads (mainly paved) at 16 percent. Not Vietnam provides an example (Table 2). estimated is the cost of inaction on adaptation. Maintenance, repair, and construction costs are expected Studies looking at the economics of local adaptation often to increase with climate change. For example, costs include focus on a developed-country context, with gaps for a number the rehabilitation of road networks where drainage systems of sectors, including infrastructure (Chambwera et al. 2014). cannot cope with peak rainfall events, or rising maintenance Further, the convergence between global and local costs needs due to increasing landslides or saltwater intrusion from MOVING TOWARD CLIMATE-RESILIENT TRANSPORT 7 TABLE 2  Vietnam, Can Tho City: Costs to Transport Railways, air traffic facilities, waterways, and maritime ports from Flooding must also be properly maintained. To take only the case of maritime transport, the Philippines consists of more than Vulnerability Maintenance, repair, construction: 7,100  islands, and maritime transport is the second most Seasonal flooding New bridges and ring roads bypass important mode after roads. Although the number of ves- of the city the city center, efforts guide growth sels entering the country’s ports increased by about 10 per- increases from to lower risk areas. cent between 1999 and 2005, maintenance of the country’s 30% to 50%. Disruption: Loss of connectivity due navigational facilities had long been neglected. Physical dam- Serious floods occurred annually to flooded roads, dependence on age or poor maintenance caused 112 of 419 lighthouses and from 2011 to road networks, urban sprawl. lighted buoys to be shut down before a corrective project was 2014. launched (JICA 2007). Social: Poor sanitation due to flooding, health impacts, prolonged Disruption costs arise as direct and indirect effects of an ini- travel times. tial asset failure. Climate events can have a direct impact on Economic: Negative economic interconnectedness, reducing transportation speed, trade, and effects on 42% of businesses, 54% local development. Failure of one component in the transpor- of grocers, 3% of workers. Indirect tation system may undermine the performance of many other effects due to missed work, revenue networks, such as energy, with economic implications beyond loss, and additional health costs. the direct impact of the initial market failure. Transport delivers critical interdependencies; their breakdown could dramatically disrupt a regional economy (Meyer 2007). Road Project Coverage from The Ministry of The 2008 flooding of the Kosi River, which crosses from Nepal South Sudan into the Indian state of Bihar, caused an embankment to breach even though the flow of water was just one seventh of the system’s design flow. The breach damaged 79 percent of roads PLAY VIDEO in Bihar, and, in cutting off Nepal’s East-West Highway, it inter- rupted the country’s flow of goods and services, including to the main hospital at Dharan. It took the Nepal Department of sea level rise and storm surges. All roads deteriorate with time, Roads a full year to fully restore the East-West Highway.7 but potholes or ruts accelerate deterioration by allowing water to infiltrate, and periodic maintenance is needed to keep In Mozambique, the economy-wide effects of road traffic dis- roads smooth. This deterioration is expected to accelerate ruptions due to changes in rainfall patterns have been fore- as systems are exposed to more severe weather and climate casted at approximately $2.5 billion per year between 2010 risks. In Ecuador, for example, poor maintenance of roads and and 2050 (Cervigni 2015). Mozambique’s high vulnerability bridges, exacerbated by noncompliance with regulations, con- to extreme weather was demonstrated by the floods of 2000, tributed to damages during an El Niño period (Kopp, Block, 2001, 2012, and 2013, which together carried a restoration cost and Iimi 2013). In sub-Saharan Africa, projected climate risks of approximately $400 million. are expected to generate $5.2 billion in maintenance costs for 11 corridors covering about 20,000 kilometers of paved Social costs to communities from weather-related disruptions primary roads through 2050—in addition to the expected of transport include reduced access to education, health, and $6.3 billion for a scenario without climate impacts. Using a pro- government services for specific populations or vulnerable active adaptation policy, the additional cost would decrease groups; a greater incidence of road accidents due to more to $2.64 billion (Cervigni 2015). hazardous conditions; and reduced access of rural communi- ties to markets. Poor maintenance, often due to lack of funds, undermines road safety because of the resulting rutting and potholes. Slick pave- Structural and economic costs to communities arise if ment and adverse weather contribute to about one-fourth transport cannot help other sectors to quickly rebound after of all highway crashes in the United States.6 Rain increases climate-related events. The largest share of economic loss pavement-related road accidents by about 30 percent. from seasonal flooding in Can Tho City in Vietnam (Table 2) is incurred through indirect costs, such as missed work, revenue loss and additional health costs. Climate change can also have effects on the structure of the economy, and the relevance of 6 National Research Council Committee on Climate Change and US Trans- portation (2008). 7 Dixit A. (2009). 8 existing transport network. For example, if corn cultivation shifts northward in response to rising temperatures, agricul- tural products may flow to markets from different origins and by different routes.8 Some approaches to estimating the costs of adaptation have been piloted at the World Bank and will be explored in Section 4. 8 Schwartz, H. G., M. Meyer, C. J. Burbank, M. Kuby, C. Oster, J. Posey, E. J. Russo, and A. Rypinski (2014). “ 3 The financing of climate action is a collective challenge. We all know that country needs for ending extreme poverty and boosting sharing prosperity and combatting climate change are enormous. Together, all of us here will have to find ways to respond to the expected rising demand. ” —Jim Yong Kim, President, The World Bank Group Responding to Demand for Adaptation Action O ver the past 50 years, major weather-related disasters The MDBs have been working globally to direct financial have caused some 800,000 fatalities and more than resources toward the sustainable development and expan- $1 trillion in economic loss. In the past decade, the sion of transport infrastructure services. At the 2012 U.N. damage caused by such disasters has reached record levels.9 Conference on Sustainable Development (Rio+20), the MDBs pledged to increase their financing for more sustainable trans- In response to these challenges, the Finance Ministers of the port to $175 billion by 2022.13 The World Bank Group with the Vulnerable Twenty (V-20) agreed in October 2015 to join forc- es.10 The group will focus on economic and financial measures, particularly to foster low-emissions development and a signifi- TABLE 3  Transport-Specific Adaptation Action in cant increase in investment in climate resiliency. For V-20 coun- Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) tries, climate impacts already exceed regional and national capabilities: typhoons with wind speeds that are about 10 per- Country Adaptation cent stronger and 30 percent more destructive than they were Belize Vulnerability assessment of transport in the 1970s, and rising sea levels that will partially or com- infrastructure, particularly in urban pletely submerge some island nations and displace at least areas and areas critical to sustaining the 500,000 people. These countries have suffered an average of country’s productive sectors (tourism, more than 50,000 deaths per year since 2010 and escalating agriculture, and ports). annual losses of at least 2.5 percent of GDP potential per year. Gambia Improved resilience of road networks Globally, 147 Parties to the U.N. Framework Convention on under changing climate conditions. Climate Change (UNFCCC) have submitted Intended Nation- Madagascar Effective application of existing or newly ally Determined Contributions (INDCs) to climate action in established sectoral policies, including advance of COP21.11 INDCs from 100 of those Parties under- flood-resistant infrastructure standards for scored the importance of economy-wide actions to address terrestrial transport. climate change mitigation and adaptation in the period to Maldives Coastal protection measures to protect the 2030.12 However, among the 100 Parties, only 16 highlighted shoreline of the island with the country’s the importance of transport among their priorities for adapta- main airport as well as measures for its tion, and even fewer included transport-specific adaptation other air and sea ports. measures (Table 3), highlighting the need to do more to posi- tion transport as a core part of the adaptation agenda. Republic of Analyzing adaptation options, including Moldova altering assumptions about infrastructure design and operations and incorporating 9 Economics of Climate Adaptation Working Group (2013). uncertainty into long-range decision 10 making. V-20 Draft Outcome Document/Communique of the Inaugural V20 Ministe- rial Meeting, final adopted October 8, 2015, at Lima. Source: Partnership on Sustainable Low-Carbon Transport (2015b). 11 Twenty-First Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC (COP21), Paris, from November 30 to December 11, 2015. 12 These INDCs, including submissions from 38 least-developed countries, 13 See Progress Report (2014–15) of the MDB Working Group on Sus- constitute 84 percent of the INDCs submitted by all 147 Parties as of October 1, tainable Transport (draft). http://www.adb.org/documents/progress- 2015 (UNFCCC 2015b). report-2013-2014-mdb-working-group-sustainable-transport. MOVING TOWARD CLIMATE-RESILIENT TRANSPORT 11 BOX 2  Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation for the Transport Sector in the Republic of Moldova’s INDC The INDC submitted to the UNFCCC by the republic of Moldova includes an objective to “Assure the develop- ment of climate resilience by reducing at least by 50  percent the climate change vulnerability and facilitate climate change adaptation in six priority sectors (agriculture, water resources, forestry, human health, energy and transport) by 2020.” Adaptation measure are identified for the transport sector to reduce losses and risks in the event of significant changes in temperature and extreme rainfall: • For significant variations of temperatures, including heat waves: developing new, heat-resilient paving mate- rials; making more use of heat-tolerant streets and landscape protection for highways; properly designing, constructing and milling out ruts; shifting construction schedules to cooler parts of day; designing replace- ment or new infrastructure for higher maximum temperatures; adapting cooling systems. • For increases in extreme precipitation events: developing new, adverse climate conditions-resilient paving materials; overlaying roads with more rut-resilient asphalt; using the most efficient technologies to assure sealing and renewal of asphalt concrete; broader use of efficient road maintenance methods; conducting risk assessments for all new roads; improving flood protection; making more use of sensors to monitor water flows; upgrading road drainage systems; grooving and sloping pavements; increasing the drainage capacity standard for new transportation infrastructure and major rehabilitation projects; engineering solutions; and increasing warnings and providing updates to dispatch centers, crews and stations. Given the long planning horizons for transport infrastructure the INDC highlights the need determine whether, when, and where the long term impacts of climate change could be consequential. Source: http://www4.unfccc.int/submissions/INDC/Published%20Documents/Republic%20of%20Moldova/1/INDC_Republic_of_ Moldova_25.09.2015.pdf seven other leading MDBs14 provide about $25 billion a year, in 330 projects. More than one-fourth of these commitments or about 20 to 30 percent of overall lending commitments, delivered climate mitigation and adaptation co-benefits for sustainable transport solutions—putting them on track to projects around the world (Figure 3), largely focused on to deliver on the Rio+20 commitment by 2022. modal shifts to lower-carbon railways and urban transpor- tation systems. For example, of the $5.3 billion committed The MDBs have also responded to client demand for adapta- by the World Bank in fiscal year 2015, $1 billion supported tion finance. Over the 2012–14 period, the MDBs committed mitigation solutions, and $200 million supported adaptation $4.7 billion for finance with adaptation co-benefits (Annex 1) to climate change. The high and growing demand for greater through energy, transport, and other built environment and mobility and connectivity and the rise in urbanization taking infrastructure projects (Table 4). place in the context of a changing climate will only increase At the World Bank, transport has been the second-largest sec- the demand for climate action financing in transport. tor after energy for project commitments with climate mitiga- In October 2015, the World Bank Group announced, with the tion and adaptation co-benefits. Over fiscal years 2011–15, the support of shareholders, that by 2020 it will expand its climate World Bank committed $30.3 billion to transport investments work by one-third, to 28 percent of annual commitments. The commitment covers expanded support for transport. Among other features, it will embrace a plan for sub-Saharan Africa 14 The eight leading Multilateral Development Banks include: African Devel- over 2015–18, to be launched at COP21, that includes strength- opment Bank, Asian Development, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, European Investment Bank, Inter-American Development Bank, ening the resilience of coastal zones and cities—areas where Islamic Development Bank, and the World Bank Group. transport infrastructure plays a critical role. 12 TABLE 4  MDBs Adaptation Finance millions of dollars Energy, Transport, and Memo: Percent for Other Built Environment Built Environment Year and Infrastructure Other Sectors Total and Infrastructure 2012 2,150 3,806 5,956 36 2013 1,422 3,404 4,826 29 2014 1,148 3,921 5,069 23 Total 4,720 11,131 15,851 30 Source: Joint Report on Multilateral Development Banks’ Climate Finance (2014). FIGURE 3  World Bank Transport Commitments with Climate Co-Benefits, Fiscal Years 2011–15 billions of dollars TRANSPORT SECTOR IDA/IBRD, FY 2011-2015 Commitment amount (in US$ billions) 0.01 5 10 15 18.94 0% 0% 0% Climate commitments 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Total commitments 0% 0% 0% 17.6% 59.4% 0% 0% 68.7% 100% 0% 41.6% 0% 0% 0% 100% 100% 28.1% 0% 20% 10.3% 0% 0% 48.1% 100% 15.8% 0% 54% 0% 100% 0% 21% 52.3% 0% 0% 26.6% 0% 8% 100% 0% 0% GSDPM Map Design Unit IBRD 42026 | November 2015 This map was produced by the Map Design Unit of The World Bank. The boundaries, colors, denominations and any other information shown on this map do not imply, on the part of The World Bank Group, any judgment on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. MOVING TOWARD CLIMATE-RESILIENT TRANSPORT 13 “ E 4  conomic thinking on adaptation has evolved from a focus on cost-benefit analysis and identification of “best economic” adaptations to the development of multi-metric evaluations including the risk and uncertainty dimensions in order to provide support to decision makers. ” —Muyeye Chambwera, United Nations Development Programme Toward Climate-Resilient Transport Systems H ow can decision makers navigate the options for infrastructure is generally long and spans several decades from improving the climate resilience of transport systems? design to the end of its operational life. During that period, In principle, they should be able to assess a range of the climate may go through considerable change. Dealing interventions by taking into account climate risks, the economic with these (deeply uncertain) changes in climate requires to and social costs and benefits of the interventions, and the risk- build flexibility in transport systems in order to avoid under- weighted damage that each action could help avert. But tools performing assets as the years go by (Figure 4). and approaches for such assessments are still emerging, being pilot tested largely on an ad hoc basis. With or without these Adaptation to new norms takes time.  Adaptation often methods, the task of adaptation is inherently complex. requires technological changes (such as innovative materials for asphalt that can withstand long periods of flooding) and Incomplete information and deep uncertainty.  The involves transitional phases (such as ensuring redundancy in climate is changing, but little is known with certainty about the connectivity of rural and urban areas). During transition future climate risks. Traditional decision-making models have periods, parts of the transport system may be maladapted typically been calibrated with historical statistics for climate to prevailing climatic conditions and require heightened risk variables, such as precipitation, wind speed, and tempera- management and maintenance. ture. However, past records are no longer reliable indicators for the future. “Stationarity” can no longer be used to guide Adequate adaptation may not always be possible.  Espe- decisions (Milly et al. 2008). Moreover climate impacts are cially in many tropical areas, climate change will expose infra- specific to location and context, requiring an analysis of vul- structure and transport services to extreme weather conditions nerabilities and adaptation options tailored to the situation. and events that may exceed design thresholds. For example, Methodologies that take into account deep uncertainties are temperatures that exceed the threshold for the stability of therefore required to help decision-makers select the most asphalt make roads paved with it unusable. Adaptive man- robust options. agement measures that include monitoring infrastructure responses to changing climate extremes will need to be part Transport assets tend to be long lived.  Integrating cli- of the transport’s response. Maintenance regimes can then mate risks into the decision-making process is made even be adjusted and codes revised as needed for new transport more complex by the fact that the useful lifetime of transport infrastructure. FIGURE 4  Climate Change in the Context of the Useful Life of Transport Infrastructure Planning Construction Facility Life Project Concept Design & Engineering Increasing Severity of Climate Impacts 3–5 yrs 1–3 yrs 1–5 yrs 30+ yrs Source: Stenek and Skromne (2011). MOVING TOWARD CLIMATE-RESILIENT TRANSPORT 15 4.1 Framework to Integrate Climate understanding of risks, impacts, and adaptation approaches. Transport and climate specialists would likewise benefit from Resilience into Transport Systems greater communication on how climate change might evolve, The World Bank has applied a range of tools and approaches to how it will affect the design of transport systems, and what its engagement in building resilient transport systems, includ- actions to take as a result. For example, by mapping critical ing upstream sectoral and spatial planning, post-disaster risk infrastructure links and identifying those that are vulnerable and recovery support, the enabling environment, and the sup- to projected climate impacts, a decision can be taken on how porting resilient infrastructure solutions. All of these tools and to proactively manage those vulnerabilities and maintain nec- approaches address different types of vulnerability and phases essary services. in the life cycle of a transport system. The same concept applies to decisions surrounding physical Figure 5 presents a four-pillar framework for the World Bank’s assets and institutional arrangements that can help answer approach to integrating climate resilience in transport systems: key questions. For example, What is the landscape surrounding the asset? Who has jurisdiction over operations, maintenance, 1. Sectoral and strategic spatial planning that is informed and design—both the original design and future retrofits? by assessments of risk and vulnerability Are drainage systems integral to the road? Are they managed 2. Resilient infrastructure solutions, which comprise invest- by the roads authority or by the urban water and sanitation ments in physical infrastructure, new technologies, and authority? What standards and manuals provide technical community-based adaptation, all designed to ensure specifications for design under future climate change? What is that the transport system is robust, redundant, and the intended design life of the assets? Have design thresholds resilient already been, or are they likely to be, exceeded? 3. Enabling environment: institutional and capacity sup- Countries are integrating climate risk considerations into trans- port, awareness raising, and finance to enhance the port system plans, design, construction, and operation. Mexico capabilities of the relevant stakeholders at the policy and and Samoa, for example, are building this into transport plans, regulatory level conducting feasibility studies on specific investments, adopt- ing climate resilient designs that can also inform new standards 4. Post-disaster risk and recovery support to ensure that and codes, and providing an adequate maintenance budget. short- and long-term climate change risk and resilience However, this approach is at an early stage of development is integrated into rebuilding efforts and is not being widely applied in other countries. At the World Bank Group, climate and disaster risk considerations are being Figure 5 provides some examples of how these objectives integrated in Country Partnership Frameworks that guide our have been delivered at the operational level and the tools support to client countries (Box 3). and approaches that have been piloted by the World Bank. In some cases, tools and approaches address more than one part At the most basic level, a country-based assessment of a trans- of the framework. The following sections explore each part of port system’s ability to withstand climate change is based on an the framework and give examples of tools and approaches inventory of transport facilities; an analysis of climate-related applied at the country level. risk factors; enumeration of adaptation responses (Table 5); and an economic assessment of response packages. More work is needed, however, to fill the large gaps in our knowledge and capacity. Such work is needed to clarify, for Typically, these methodologies construct response packages example, how to sequence, prioritize, and combine approaches based on a set of standardized proactive and reactive adap- and select them with a carefully crafted decision-making tation strategies related to damages from potential climate approach under deep uncertainty. Finding ways to system- impacts such as high temperatures, changing precipitation atically integrate climate change into transport decisions will patterns, increased flooding or flash-flooding, permafrost melt- help decision makers prioritize policy actions and investments ing, and sea-level rise. The damages on road networks include that best mitigate damages and reduce the costs of system pavement deterioration, weakened bridge joints, bridge scour- disruption on development. ing, erosion, and changes in frequency and intensity of snow and ice removal. 4.2 Sectoral and Spatial Planning The following sections provide four examples of tools and In some sectors, such as agriculture, stakeholders have approaches for sectoral and spatial planning piloted by the long engaged with climate scientists to build a mutual World Bank. 16 FIGURE 5  Framework to Integrate Climate Resilience in Transport Systems15 Sectoral and Spatial Resilient Infrastructure Post-disaster Risk and Planning Solutions Enabling Environment Recovery Support Upstream vulnerability Investments in physical • Policies, plans, codes Ensuring short and long assessment for climate infrastructure or new and reforms designed term climate change risk change and other technologies designed to reduce the impact and resilience is integrated challenges to reduce the impacts of of current and future into rebuilding efforts current and future climate climate risks, or enable risks and ensure robustness, future adaptation. redundancy and resilience. • Investments in human, This can include community institutional, and based adaptation. technical capacity to Objective raise awareness, analyze, and cope with current and future climate risks. • Investments in systems that collect, organize, store and analyze climate data, and capture and share lessons. • Funding and resources allocated to deliver and maintain resilient infrastructure systems Examples: Examples: Examples: Examples: • Urban planning • Non engineering and • Codes and standards • Post disaster needs • Transport master plan engineering solutions • Institutional assessment • Road network plans • Maintenance coordination • Building back better Delivery • Awareness programs • Strengthened codes and • Budget planning standards • Contingency planning • Across government & • Improved hydro met donor coordination information • Monitoring for resilience • Economics approach to • Screening tools for climate • Infrastructure planning • Building resilience in the Bank Piloted Tools and Approaches vulnerability assessment and disaster risk for use in and maintenance transport sector after • Engineering approach to early stages of investments through a vulnerability disaster vulnerability assessment • Decision-support systems lens • A systematic condition and resilience planning for evaluating and including • Tracking climate assessment of • A systematic condition impacts on economic mitigation and infrastructure through assessment of and social continuity adaptation co-benefits vulnerability and risk infrastructure through of alternative transport • Socio-economic assessment vulnerability and risk network investments resilience indicator assessment • Cost-risk assessment • Vulnerabilities framework under a given assessment using socio- climate scenario economic criticality and • Decision-making under flood susceptibility in uncertainty (DMU) 15 the transport network 15 Some tools and approaches can be applied across several pillars of this framework. MOVING TOWARD CLIMATE-RESILIENT TRANSPORT 17 BOX 3  Integrating Climate and Disaster Risk Considerations into Systematic Country Diagnostics At the World Bank Group, the Country Partnership Framework (CPF) guides support to a client country. It is informed by a Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) that identifies the most important challenges and oppor- tunities at a country level for reaching the goals of ending extreme poverty and increasing shared prosperity in a sustainable manner. Climate and disaster risk considerations are integrated into this process under a policy commitment under the seventeenth replenishment of IDA; the Bank’s fund for the poorest countries. A recent review of experience, shows that SCDs/CPFs for regional programs in Cambodia, Lao PDR and Myanmar are including disaster response measures and should consider transport systems and mobility across and within countries. In Honduras the SCD notes its high vulnerability to natural hazards and disaster risks and related socio-economic impacts. It identifies the need to further develop knowledge and disaster risk assessments to reduce existing high levels of structural vulnerability in public assets as well as integrating disaster risk reduction criteria in ter- ritorial and sector planning processes. In the Pacific Region the SCD notes the high vulnerability of Pacific Island counties to climate and disaster events. It highlights the importance of integrating climate change adaptation and disaster risk management into policy, planning and investment decisions. It also notes that investments in improved disaster risk management and early adaptation show unambiguously high rates of return, particularly for people and assets in coastal areas. TABLE 5  Categories of Adaptation Actions BOX 4  Integrating Climate Risk and Typology Description Resilience in Development Planning OECD Bear Losses, Share Losses, Modify the Threat, Prevent Effects, Change The Pilot Program for Climate Resilience (PPCR), Use, Change Location, Research, and operated by the multidonor Climate Investment Encourage Behavioral Change Funds (CIF), is demonstrating ways to integrate USAID Sustain Losses, Cope (with climate risk and resilience into developing coun- stressors), Share Losses, Adjust tries’ core development planning. To date, 18 (behavior), Reduce Impact, Defend/ countries, plus the Caribbean and Pacific regional Armor/Protect, Relocate, and programs of the PPCR have endorsed multisector Research investment plans that have been developed on a Asian Development Engineering Options, Non- consultative basis across government, the private Bank Engineering Options, Biophysical sector, donors, and civil society. Some plans, such Options, and Do Nothing Option as Mozambique’s include a transport focus. Pilot Program Policy Reform/Development/ Through its “IDA 17 replenishment” (fiscal years for Climate Enabling Environment, 2015–17), the World Bank will support the develop- Resilience (Climate Implementation, Capacity Building, ment and implementation of at least 25 additional Investment Funds) Knowledge Management multisector plans and investments for managing Source: Adapted from Strategic Framework & Typology for Climate climate and disaster risk in development. Resilience Measures, World Bank, 2015. A further example of integrating climate risk and resilience are postdisaster needs assessments, which help countries develop long-term strategies for resilient recovery and reconstruction. 18 BOX 5  Accessibility and Resilience of Road Networks In a study of “Road Networks, Accessibility, and Resilience,” the World Bank developed a methodology for testing the resilience of the national road networks in Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru to climate-related shocks (Briceño- Garmendia et. al. 2015). The resilience of the road network is its ability to remain operational as a system, even though particular links in the system are substantially degraded or out of service entirely. Faced with the challenge of having to allocate resources efficiently and prioritize the most urgent investments on the road networks, decision-makers struggle to identify the most critical links and evaluate their vulner- ability, in face of uncertain future events and uncertainties about their impact. In this study, the World Bank sought to answer three key questions: (1) How can we identify the most critical roads in the national network? (2) Given the existing uncertainties, what are the expected annual losses linked to flood disruptions of critical group of links? (3) How can we best reduce these losses and choose between available ex-ante options and ex post interventions? To help answer these questions, the study illustrates how to effectively combine traditional transport models, like HDM-4, with innovative network analysis and state-of-the-arts methods for managing uncertainties about the future. By using the interdiction technique on thousands of links, this study shows how to select the most critical links. It then demonstrates how to select the most exposed and vulnerable of these links to floods and landslides. It also shows that the analyst can easily take into account additional qualitative information on the strategic or economic relevance of some links, to improve the decisions. Finally, by running hundreds of scenarios of possible events and their impacts, it applies a robust decision-making approach to guide a cost-effectiveness analysis of policy options available when a road network is exposed to unpredictable climate events. 4.2.1 Economics Approach to Vulnerability under current climate conditions. This approach, which has Assessment been piloted in Morocco (Box 6), provides a detailed, prioritized list of engineering improvements to the climate resilience of An economics approach is being used to assess the vulner- roads and contributes to sectoral planning. ability of critical links in a road network as part of road sec- tor and network risk planning. It measures and assesses the 4.2.3 A Systematic Condition Assessment of accessibility of road networks, identifies and assesses criti- Infrastructure through Vulnerability cal corridors of the network as well as cost-efficient options and Risk Assessment to reduce vulnerability. The result is identification of specific links whose failure during weather or other climate-related Underinvestment in infrastructure maintenance makes it vul- events would produce the greatest damage to the economy. nerable to unexpected failures and may undermine the ability Options and plans to reduce those risks are considered. Such of many other networks to perform. Therefore, the indirect an approach was taken in a World Bank study of the economic economic impact of the initial failure can be much greater than resilience of the national road networks in Colombia, Ecuador, the direct loss. For example the interruption of energy supplies and Peru (Box 5). due to a natural disaster will affect water supplies, which will have consequences extending far beyond the direct failure of 4.2.2 Engineering Approach to Vulnerability the energy supply system. The same is true for other networks, Assessment and Resilience Planning such as transport and critical public buildings. An engineering approach integrates socioeconomic and tech- The combination of aging infrastructure, low funding for nical factors into a decision tool to help road managers priori- rehabilitation or renewal, and an increase in the frequency of tize investments to improve the resilience of the road network natural disasters calls for a proactive approach to managing MOVING TOWARD CLIMATE-RESILIENT TRANSPORT 19 CLICK BOX TO READ MORE... BOX 6  Vulnerability Assessment and Risk Planning for Roads in Morocco Morocco is subject to extreme climate events whose for assessing and improving the climate resilience of frequency and intensity are likely to increase because their road networks. of climate change. These climatic events have serious adverse effects on economic activity and cause large FIGURE B3.1  Steps to Establish the Most Favorable direct and indirect losses. Between 2009 and 2015, Solution repairs of weather-related damage to the road net- work cost a total of 4 billion Moroccan dirhams ($408 CHARACTERIZATION OF THE VULNERABILITY INDICATORS OF THE VULNERABILITY million), of which about 3 billion ($306 million) was drawn from the road maintenance budget. Today intense rainfall can lead to large-scale mudslides, HIERARCHICAL INDICATION OF TECHNICAL PRIORITY ORGANIZATION OF SOCIOECONOMIC INDICATION flooding, and roadway erosion, sometimes severing THE DISORDERS INDICATION OF PRIORITY main roads such as the Rabat-Casablanca highway. In 2010, the World Bank conducted a study on the TECHNICAL STUDIES TECHNICAL SOLUTIONS adaptation of the Moroccan transport sector to climate ESTIMATION COST change and evaluated the vulnerability of the road sections (World Bank 2015a). The method classified ANALYZE COST BETTER ECONOMIC road sections according to four types of vulnerability PROFIT TECHNICAL SOLUTION and a set of characteristic indicators of the observed risk. It integrated socioeconomic and technical factors into a decision tool that helps road managers priori- The study concluded that the climate data and mod- tize investments to improve the resilience of the road eling efforts cannot provide sufficient detail for network under current conditions (Figure B3.1). road planning and design. However, the study also concluded that current road design and construc- The outcome is a prioritized list of vulnerabilities— tion practice had shortcomings even for current cli- a kind of “shopping list”—and ranked engineering matic conditions. For example, in Morocco’s arid or improvements that will enhance the climate resil- semi-arid climate, sudden precipitation events would ience of the road network. This ground-based work often cause substantial erosion damage to roads and can be integrated into other network analyses of vul- bridges and their associated works. nerabilities and form part of a comprehensive toolkit infrastructure. The biggest challenge is the difficulty of assess- are being built into the regular functions of the transport asset ing the failure risk for components of an infrastructure net- management system (Box 7). This pilot approach enables trans- work. It requires a systematic assessment of the infrastructure’s port maintenance institutions to adjust to the potential for condition that incorporates vulnerability and risk analysis. A climate-related disasters and integrate them into their operat- focus on strategic planning can minimize the risk of failure and ing strategies. Section 4.5 provides guidance on the various improve response when failures do occur. methodologies used and shows how to effectively incorporate disaster risk management into asset management. The effects of disruptions can be minimized by integrating disaster risk management at every stage of the life cycle of 4.2.4 Vulnerabilities Assessment Using the infrastructure and combining it with sufficient prepara- Socioeconomic Criticality and Flood tion for emergency response and business continuity. This in turn becomes part of the infrastructure asset management Susceptibility in Transport Networks plan. Improving the condition of infrastructure assets improves Where the road network is located along coastal fronts, it can financial efficiency, increases resilience, improves services, be vulnerable to disruption from storm surges, inland and strengthens government agencies and accountability systems, coastal flooding, and extreme events like hurricanes. Belize and promotes more sustainable decision making. faces such challenges and has developed a participatory This approach has been applied in South Asia. The identifica- approach to assess road network vulnerabilities and identify tion of critical links and disaster risk management strategies priority investments. 20 BOX 7  Integrating Disaster Risk into the Lifecycle Management of Transport Infrastructure in South Asia The asset management system can be used as a decision-making framework for incorporating adaptation con- cerns into a transportation agency’s management approach (Meyer, Amekudzi, and O’Har 2009). Given that all transportation agencies have some form of an asset management system, it provides a convenient and targeted way to integrate climate-induced change into transport decisions. In the case of roads, asset management relies on monitoring the performance of systems and analyzing the discounted costs of different investment and maintenance strategies. For existing infrastructure, the key issue is making efficient choices about maintenance and replacement. When building new infrastructure, asset man- agement involves evaluating total life-cycle costs—both the initial capital costs and the subsequent costs for operation, maintenance, and disposal. The aim is to ensure that projects are prioritized appropriately and are built cost effectively. This could include, for example, making a larger initial investment in a thicker pavement to provide a greater-than-proportional increase in pavement life; or shortening the period between pavement overlays, which could reduce fuel and maintenance costs for road users. Climate change monitoring tech- niques and adaptation strategies can be factored into an asset management system in several ways. Table B4.1 describes the experience with such approaches in the United Kingdom and New Zealand. TABLE B4.1  Climate-Resilient Asset Management System Asset Management System Component Monitoring Techniques and Adaptation Strategies Goals and Policies Incorporate climate change considerations into asset management goals and policies. These could be general statements concerning adequate attention of potential issues, or targeted statements at specific types of vulnerabilities (e.g., sea level rise). Asset Inventory Mapping of infrastructure assets in vulnerable areas, potentially using GIS. Inventory critical assets that are susceptible to climate change impacts. Condition Monitor asset conditions with environmental conditions (e.g., temperature, precipitation, Assessment and winds) to determine if climate change affects performance. Incorporate risk appraisal into Performance performance modelling and assessment. Identify high risk areas and highly vulnerable assets. Modelling Use “smart” technologies to monitor the health of infrastructure assets. Alternatives Include alternatives that use probabilistic design procedures to account for the uncertainties Evaluation and of climate change. Possible application of climate change-related evaluation criteria, smart Program Optimization materials, mitigation strategies, and hazard avoidance approaches. Short- and Long- Incorporate climate change considerations into activities outlined in short and long range Range Plans plans. Incorporate climate change into design guidelines. Establish appropriate mitigation strategies and agency responsibilities. Program Include appropriate climate change strategies into program implementation. Determine if Implementation agency is actually achieving its climate change adaptation/ monitoring goals. Performance Monitor the asset management system to ensure that it is effectively responding to climate Monitoring change. Possible use of climate change-related performance measures. Use “triggering” measures to identify when an asset or asset category has reached some critical level. Source: Meyer, Amekudzi, and O’Har (2009). In South Asia, the World Bank piloted the integration of disaster risk into the life-cycle management of transport infrastructure. A transport asset management system was developed in Bhutan that incorporated appropriate vulnerability attributes. The database helps monitor assets to plan operations and maintenance activities but also helps identify critical and weak links in the transport network that are vulnerable to disasters. Additional pilots of the approach are being prepared in Sri Lanka, Nepal, and Belize. The objective of these engagements is to raise awareness beyond the ministries of transport, particularly with ministries of finance, on the importance of understanding current risks, reducing transport infrastructure vulnerability, and ensuring future risks are fully taken into account in new transport infrastructure investments and plans. Belize has most of its population and key economic assets system to absorb and withstand disturbances. Redundancy located near the coast and is one of the countries most vul- considers the extent to which transport services, as a com- nerable to climate change . A lack of redundancy in the road ponent of a system, can remain functional in the face of spot network makes it particularly vulnerable: 70 percent of the failures in its network. Resilience is the ability of the whole population lives near primary and secondary roads, and flood- transport network to support or facilitate community and ing of just one section of roadway can sever access and severely national efforts to adapt to climate change. disrupt economic and social movement. For example, the Burundi Infrastructure Resilience Emer- The government of Belize, with assistance from the World Bank, gency Project includes measures to protect slopes, stabilizing developed a multisector National Climate Resilient Investment embankments, rehabilitating drainage systems, and redi- Plan that identified key vulnerabilities to climate change and recting groundwater. In the Pacific islands, the Kiribati Road laid out a set of strategic investment priorities. A participatory Rehabilitation Project adjusted the final design of the road and information-based process was used to develop the plan, rehabilitation program to ensure it integrated robust coastal with the transport network at its center given its socioeconomic protection measures that minimized erosion. Similarly, the importance.16 The project included the development of a compre- Belize Climate Resilience Infrastructure Project involves retrofit- hensive methodology based on the socioeconomic criticality and ting and rehabilitating existing primary and secondary roads. flood susceptibility of the primary and secondary road networks to In India, the Bihar Kosi Flood Recovery Project is financing identify priority areas of intervention. The assessment of flood sus- the reconstruction of roads and bridges following flooding to ceptibility used a data-driven analysis. The participatory, multicri- build resilience through enhanced drainage to limit damage teria evaluation process involved representatives from ministries, caused by future floods. municipalities, the private sector, civil society, NGOs, academic institutions, and international financial institutions (Annex 3). The World Bank has been applying such approaches to strengthening the climate resilience of airports as well, such The analysis informed investments under the Climate Resilient as in the aviation investment projects for Tuvalu and Vanuatu. Infrastructure Project, financed by the World Bank, which sup- ports targeted retrofitting, rehabilitation, and reconstruction The following section will look at the tools and methodologies activities to strengthen the resilience of critical transporta- used by World Bank in addressing resilience of infrastructure. tion infrastructure to natural hazards and climate change. The government has also used the plan to inform investments by 4.3.1 Screening Tools for Climate and international donors. Disaster Risk for Use in Early Stages of Investments 4.3 Resilient Infrastructure Solutions Risk screening is designed to identify at an early stage the cli- Resilient solutions are designed to reduce the impacts of cur- mate and geophysical hazards that could impact the design of rent and future climate risks. They span a broad range of invest- a strategy or project; it thus allows for proactive management ments, from physical infrastructure and new technologies to of those impacts. Risk screening typically brings together local community-based adaptation and approaches that focus on expertise and climate information to conduct the assessment. maintenance planning. The World Bank has developed a suite of climate and disaster risk screening tools, including those relevant to transport sys- Most road projects in the World Bank’s transport adaptation tems.17 The quality of output produced by the tools depends portfolio have been focused on “engineering” (or structural) on expert knowledge and judgment and the quality of the approaches designed to address issues such as subsurface available climate change and hazards information. conditions, material specifications, cross-section and standard dimensions, drainage and erosion, and protective engineering The tools—which classify risks as negligible, low, medium, or structures. Many of the projects addressed expected climate high—consider exposure, potential impact, and adaptive capac- impacts such as changes in rainfall, flooding, and sea-level rise ity to determine the risk to the development project (Figure 6). that could impact a section of a road or bridge. Initial observations from applying the tools for transport systems in IDA project countries suggests that considering the impacts In all cases they have been designed to ensure that transport of changes in temperature, rainfall, and extreme events on road infrastructure and systems are robust, have redundancy, and surface materials, bridges, and ramps can help determine the are resilient. Robustness considers the ability of the transport risk from climate change (Box 8). In all cases, both short- and long-term risks from climate change should be considered. 16 The work was conducted through financial support from the Africa Caribbean Pacific (ACP) European Union (EU) Natural Disaster Risk Reduc- tion Program, received through the Global Facility for Disaster Recovery and 17 See the World Bank’s Climate Change Knowledge Portal, Reconstruction. http://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org. 22 FIGURE 6  Climate and Disaster Risk Screening Methodology Stage Stage Stage Stage 1 2 3 4 Exposure Potential Impact Adaptive Capacity Project Risk What types of hazards Given the exposure to How will the non-physical Based on the previous might my project hazards, what are the components and the steps, what is the overall experience and to potential impacts on broader development risk from climate and what extent? the physical aspects of context modulate the geophysical hazards on my project design? potential impacts on my project? speci c aspects of my projects? BOX 8  Emerging Lessons from Screening Transport Projects for Climate Risk in IDA Projects A recent portfolio-level review looked at the experience with using the World Bank’s climate and disaster risk screening tools for transport projects financed by the World Bank’s International Development Association (IDA). The review yielded a number of conclusions and insights. • Exposure to climate hazards, particularly extreme precipitation and flooding, but also coastal hazards, sea level rise, and storm surge, is rising. • A project’s overall sensitivity to climate change drives potential impacts on physical infrastructure, such as road-surfacing materials, bridges, and ramps. This includes increases in the variability of temperature and precipitation and increases in the intensity of extreme events like flooding and heat waves. Extreme precipi- tation and flooding are especially highlighted. • Considering climate risks early in project design matters. For instance, coastal hazards such as sea-level rise and storm surge were not prevalent in many projects analyzed, but where they are present they are expected to present high risks to the location and physical investments. Designing projects in a way that accounts for the current and future risks can help to reduce the sensitivity of transport investments in the medium and long term. • “Soft” measures such as capacity building, data gathering, policy development, and strategic planning are important for improving the adaptive capacity of the institutions and people that manage and rely on trans- port networks and should be enhanced. • The broader development context, including the nationwide transport sector and socioeconomic and political factors, present challenges and opportunities for managing climate risks. This highlights the need to address systemic problems at the country level and integrate the principles of climate resilience where possible. 4.3.2 Decision-support Systems for Evaluating investments might cover the incremental costs of mainte- and Including Impacts on Economic nance regimes and assure the provision of spare capacity, back-up systems, and alternative services during spot fail- and Social Continuity of Alternative ures of portions of the transport network. Decision-support Transport Network Investments systems could be used. Decision-support systems are needed during the invest- Through its Resilient Cities program, the World Bank has devel- ment planning process to help countries and cities oped a “City Strength” diagnostic using a holistic approach to understand and evaluate the impacts on economic and identify priority actions and investments to strengthen urban social continuity of transport network investments. Such MOVING TOWARD CLIMATE-RESILIENT TRANSPORT 23 CLICK BOX TO READ MORE... BOX 9  Building Resilience in Can Tho City, Vietnam Can Tho City is the 4th largest city in Vietnam and the economic engine of the Mekong Delta Region. In 2014 the city reported annual GDP growth of 12 percent.a As one of the 13 Mekong Delta provinces, and being located along the Bassac River (Hau River), Can Tho City shares the hazards of the larger Mekong Delta. The city is sus- ceptible to flooding caused by Mekong alluvial overflow, high tides, and extreme rainfall events. Seasonal flood- ing typically impacts 30 percent of the city area, but has recently increased to 50 percent (Huong and Pathirana 2013), and the city was seriously flooded every year from 2011 to 2014. Transport infrastructure in Can Tho is predominantly dependent on roads, rendering the transport sector vul- nerable to disruptions caused by seasonal flooding. While the city has assessed transport investments based on flood risks, the link between transport and urban land-use planning is not fully considered. In general, road investments in Can Tho have tended to focus on improving access to existing communities or providing access to large-scale economic development sites. The scale and nature of land use along the roadways has not been sufficiently monitored or planned, and the result has been sprawling growth into low-lying areas. The city authorities had plans to upgrade the road network to the North of the city in order to improve freight delivery from the industrial zones lying in the Mekong Delta. They also counted on that upgrade to help them with disaster recovery.  A World Bank diagnostic revealed however, that pursuing a program of road upgrades outside the city center would actually attract settlement in the plains, around the new roads. The plains being susceptible to flooding, this would only increase the vulnerability of the population. The diagnostic showed also that if more provisions were not made to encourage more settlement in and imme- diately adjacent to the historic center—which is not only the main generator of jobs of the region, but also the highest elevation within Can Tho city limits—urban sprawl would probably take place on the other side of the Mekong River, to the Southeast of the city center, where the national government had just constructed a bridge across the river. Based on this diagnostic, the city of Can Tho reprioritized its investments, choosing instead to strengthen the city center with a bridge connecting the new city bus terminal with the traditional city center, and a ring road providing better connection to other provinces, while allowing traffic to avoid the city center. a “Can Tho Overview,” http://cantho.gov.vn/wps/portal/. Flooding in Can Tho Vietnam PLAY VIDEO systems.18 It also uses a consensus-based approach bringing are carrying out their evaluation at the same time, and com- together a multisector team of experts to engage with city paring notes in real time—and the commonality of approach partners for an intensive week of workshops and one-on-one across sectors. Resilience in each sector is evaluated against six meetings. During these meetings climate impacts and stresses dimensions: robustness, reflectiveness, redundancy, inclusive- are identified, the city’s resilience characteristics (overall and ness, diversity, and coordination. To date, the City Strength for each sector) are assessed, resilience-enhancing actions diagnostic has been piloted in Can Tho City, Vietnam (Box 9), are developed and prioritized, and a program of actions and and Addis Ababa. investments recommended. 4.3.3 Cost-Risk Assessment Framework Two innovations in the City Strength methodology are the simultaneity of the evaluations–experts from different sectors under a Given Climate Change Scenario Cost-risk assessment provides a decision-making framework for systematically evaluating the merits of investments that 18 http://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/urbandevelopment/brief/citystrength. enhance resilience and prioritizing them. The assessment 24 FIGURE 7  Cost-Benefit Assessment of Options for Samoa to Reduce Annual Expected Losses from Coastal Flooding Cost Benefit Ratio (CBR) 9.5 9.1 9.0 4.1 4.0 3.5 Risk averse decision 3.0 makers might accept 2.5 a higher CBR, e.g., 1.52 2.0 1.4 1.5 1.2 1.2 1.50 1.0 Risk neutral decision 1.0 1.00 0.5 0.5 makers will base 0.5 0.20.2 0.3 decision on CBR = 1.0 0 0 0.1 0.2 0 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 Back Away Revive Reefs Sandbagging Relocation1 Dikes Moveable Buildings Mangrove Flood-Adapt Contents Stilts (new) Stilts (old) Breakwaters Mobile Barriers Flood-proof Building Structures Sea Walls Beach Nourishment PV of Averted Losses USD Millions 1Relocation only includes residential and commercial buildings outside of Apia 2For example, a cost benefit ratio of –1.5 is implicity accepted by customer’s purchasing an insurance contract with a loss ratio betwen 60 and 70% framework estimates how much each option could reduce adaptation options can be financed on commercial terms. For risk-weighted economic and social costs and compares that example, a climate risk study of the port in Cartagena, Colom- result with the cost of implementing the measure. The frame- bia, identified the effects of climate risks on financial returns work takes climate change as given. The options are evaluated and environmental and social performance (International against a known probable distribution of climate phenomena Finance Corporation 2011). The effects included the impact and the likely loss of benefits associated with each of them. This of sea-level rise on the port infrastructure; the consequences approach differs from the “robust decision-making” approach for internal and external operations of changes in storm surge, (discussed in the next section), which evaluates options under temperature, and precipitation; and climatic impacts that can uncertainty about climate risks at a specific location. damage the goods transported through the port or disrupt the transportation chain. In Samoa, high-value assets such as buildings and roads are located in coastal areas that are exposed to increasingly severe The risks were then quantified and incorporated in the com- storm surges, cyclones, and coastal flooding. For instance, pany’s financial model, which clearly showed the material- a category 5 storm hit Samoa in 2008, when it was consid- ity of various risks over time. Lastly, adaptation solutions and ered to be a 50-year event; by 2030 it may become a 20-year quantified investments were incorporated into the model, event. In 2008, the annual expected loss from coastal flooding demonstrating priority initiatives that could be financed on amounted to $25 million, or 5 percent of the country’s GDP. In commercial terms. Following the publication of the study, the a scenario with a high degree of climate change, the annual port company announced investments of $10 million in the expected losses from such flooding could reach $80 million, recommended adaptation actions. or 9 percent of (larger) GDP. Figure 7 shows the cost-benefit assessment for Samoa with 4.3.4 Decision Making under Uncertainty a variety of options to reduce the annual expected loss from coastal flooding.19 The government of Samoa is conducting Coping with a less predictable climate requires new decision- a risk-based assessment of vulnerability and hazards for its making tools designed to reduce risks under conditions of deep road network that will include resilient infrastructure solutions uncertainty. The DMU framework is a formalized approach that are technically feasible and appropriate for the Samoan to evaluating options given uncertainties about long-term context (see Box 10). climate at a specific location. This approach contrasts with traditional decision-making tools that rely on knowing the In some cases, risk and vulnerability assessments have been probability distribution of climate phenomena and the likely combined with net-present-value analysis to determine when loss of benefits associated with each of them. Deep uncertainty is the condition under which the probability 19 Economics of Climate Adaptation Working Group (2013). distribution of outcomes from low-probability, high-impact MOVING TOWARD CLIMATE-RESILIENT TRANSPORT 25 BOX 10  Toward Climate-Resilient Infrastructure Systems in Pacific Island Countries Pacific island countries are highly vulnerable to climate change and severe weather events.a Roads are typically located adjacent to the coast, often less than a meter above sea level. Severe damage to road networks can block access to other services and critical infrastructure, such as hospitals, schools, port facilities, power plants, and airports. Between 2012 and 2015, tropical cyclones caused physical damage and economic losses in Samoa, Tonga, and Vanuatu ranging from 11  percent to 60 of the respective islands’ GDP. The World Bank has been assisting Pacific island governments in the following ways to meet their severe transport challenges. • Spatial planning and risk-based tools to more effectively prepare for climate change and severe weather. Samoa and Tonga, for example, are making effective use of Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) technology, which provides high-resolution aerial photographs to generate elevation data and strengthen spatial hazard mapping analysis. Samoa integrates LiDAR with an existing a citizen-engagement planning tool that assesses the resilience of coastal infrastructure for extreme weather events. • Fit-for-purpose infrastructure solutions for elevating low-lying main roads, installing drainage, using geocell paving technology for low-volume roads and strengthening coastal infrastructure. • Strengthening the enabling environment by building the capacity of government and supporting legal and regulatory reforms that improve the delivery of government resources. • Post-disaster recovery support. Early lessons from Kiribati, Samoa, and Tonga point to (1) the importance of resilient roads to ensure economic growth and intra-island connectivity, (2) the need for financial sustainability and long-term donor engagement, and (3) the need to raise awareness among road authorities on these issues. Achieving positive project out- comes depends on keeping design and implementation arrangements simple and ensuring that local communi- ties are engaged in projects from start to finish. aThe World Bank Group has active engagements in 10 Pacific island countries: Federated States of Micronesia, Fiji, Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Palau, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga, Tuvalu, and Vanuatu. Source: World Bank (2013a). events is unknown, such as when extreme weather events are with decision makers to build consensus around decisions projected to increase at unknown intensities, frequencies, and (World Bank 2013a). geographical distributions. Rather than asking what the future is likely to bring, decision makers facing deep uncertainty must When transport policy makers must decide on long-lived ask, “What actions should we take, given that we do not know investments in new infrastructure while confronted by deep the future?” uncertainty, DMU can provide a wide array of options for loca- tion, capacity, and other design features. In contrast to the DMU strikes a balance between, on the one hand, “coverage” traditional approach of focusing on the “optimal” option, RDM against uncertainty (analogous to insurance) and, on the aims to present the option that minimizes adverse climate other, a society’s threshold for acceptable risk and its financial impacts and has consensus among stakeholders. Such an resource constraints. By giving decision makers the tools to approach tends to yield road construction that can withstand weigh trade-offs between the cost of coverage and acceptable temperature increases and climate-smart land-use policies for risks, DMU helps them better define and select from invest- locating new infrastructure. ments and policy choices that are robust across a wide range of possible futures. DMU allows decision makers to reconsider an investment or policy if new information becomes available, thereby helping DMU analysis covers many sets of assumptions to understand them avoid being locked into technologies that are costly to how strategies and plans perform in a wide range of condi- reverse and are maladapted to future conditions, both climatic tions. It uses statistical analysis and visualizations to identify and nonclimatic. Preserving future choices has a value in itself the specific conditions that would lead to selecting one deci- and can increase the ability to adapt to evolving economic and sion over another. Information is shared in an iterative way climate contexts. 26 BOX 11  Decision Making under Uncertainty in Africa In Africa, the World Bank applied decision-making techniques to look at the resilience of road networks to future climate change (World Bank 2015f). The study assembled a database of reasonably foreseeable road infrastruc- ture in Africa through 2030 was assembled. Ninety-one possible climate scenarios for each link in the road network were applied to explore climate vulnerability. Based on the assumption that each scenario is equally plausible, a limited but likely set of discrete adaptation responses were evaluated against two criteria: minimiz- ing “maximum regret” and satisfying the widest range of possible futures. The results constituted a significant case for adapting road design in Africa to temperature stressors but not to precipitation and flood stressors. Although the study was complex and required enormous computational power, its results indicated that methodologies for decision making in the face of deep uncertainty have great potential. At the World Bank, DMU techniques have been used to explore Investments in information support systems are options that build the resilience of road networks across Africa needed to collect, organize, store, and analyze climate through 2030 (Box 11). The analysis highlighted the value of data.  Such data are the basis for risk evaluation and the use adaptation to temperature stressors in road design. of event monitoring tools. They are likewise critical to informed decisions about a system’s operation and maintenance needs; 4.4 Enabling Environment and for prevention, early warning, and response capabilities that help minimize disruptions in the event of climate impacts. Strengthening the enabling environment is as important as strategic planning and investments in infrastructure solutions. The World Bank is supporting the development of early warn- Strengthening clients’ capacity to manage considerations of ing weather information systems and contingency plans for climate change and disaster risk means applying those con- emergencies. Early warning systems provide on-demand fore- siderations across policies and regulations, institutions, and casts that deliver tailored, timely information on weather, flash investments and requires engagement on a number of fronts. floods, and fire risk. By focusing on the prevention of adverse impacts from natural disasters, early warning systems can sig- Policies, plans, and codes need to be aligned with local vulner- nificantly reduce costs. abilities to current and future climate change so as to enable adaptation. Attaining that alignment often requires investments The transport sector can greatly improve disaster management in human, institutional, and technical capacity to raise aware- and recovery by developing contingency plans that ensure ness of the issues and the ability to develop and enforce the service delivery during and after weather events. In the Mada- needed codes and standards. In Morocco, for example, existing gascar Emergency Infrastructure Preservation and Vulnerability standards could make roads more resilient to current climate Reduction Project, the World Bank is financing disaster risk conditions, but these standards had not been enforced (Box 6). management capacity strengthening. This includes rehabili- tating critical elements of the hydro-meteorological network, The World Bank has provided direct support to develop techni- early warning systems, and the capacity building for national cal guidelines and training programs that build climate resil- and local staff in charge of national responses to disasters. ience into the design of road infrastructure. For example, in the Haiti Center and Artibonite Regional Development Project, the The allocation of adequate funding and resources is an World Bank financed goods, technical assistance, and training. important element of resilient infrastructure systems.  In Madagascar, which is increasingly affected by cyclones, the With national climate plans providing a framework for climate World Bank helped develop a simple spatial risk categorization action, finance ministers will have a key role to play in bud- for the island to inform the development of resilient building geting to support their implementation. Reviews have been codes (Box 12).20 The resilience of transport and other infra- used in a number of countries to evaluate the effectiveness structure is being advanced in Madagascar through the use and efficiency of climate-related public spending and to align of local expertise; extensive testing of the codes; awareness, expenditures with a country’s needs and objectives.21 This training, and regulatory incentives; and a decree to enforce the experience has highlighted some lessons on how to address codes through a simple process of compliance. the fiscal implications of climate change: (1) include climate 20 The project was supported by the governments of Norway and Finland through the Trust Fund for Environmental and Social Sustainable Development. 21 Policy Note, Moving Toward Climate Budgeting, World Bank, 2014. MOVING TOWARD CLIMATE-RESILIENT TRANSPORT 27 BOX 12  Risk Planning and Resilient Infrastructure Codes in Madagascar Madagascar’s National Unit for the Prevention and Management of Disasters developed building codes for weather-resistant transport infrastructure, relying mostly on local experts. The country was divided into risk zones based on hydro-geological characteristics, existing assets, river morphology, and projected climate change scenarios. Safety return periods and improvement in designs were then developed for the different risk zones and types of infrastructure, as illustrated here. IBRD 42003 45°E 50°E Antsiranana Mayotte MADAGASCAR (France) Ambilobe Vohimarina l Ambanja DIANA e n n a h SAVA C Sambava e Bealanana u iq b Antsohihy Antalaha 15°S m 15°S za o SOFIA Befandriana M Maroantsetra Mahajanga Mandritsara Mampikony Soalala BOÉNY Mananara ANALANJIROFO Besalampy Maevatanana Andilamena Soanierana-Ivongo BETSIBOKA ALAOTRA Kandreho Andriamena MANGORO Fenoarivo-Atsinanana MELAKY Ambatondrazaka Maintirano Andilanatoby Ankazobe Toamasina ANALAMANGA BONGOLAVA Antsalova ANTANANARIVO ATSINANANA Tsiroanomandidy Miarinarivo Moramanga ITASY INDIAN Vatomandry Miandrivazo Antanifotsy Belo Tsiribihina VAKINANKARATRA OCEAN Antsirabe Mahanoro 20°S MENABE 20°S Morondava Malaimbandy AMORON’I MANIA Ambatofinan- Ambositra Varika drahana Mandabe Ambohimahasoa HAUTE-MATSIATRA Mananjary Manja Fianarantsoa VATOVAVY- Morombe Beroroha 0 40 80 120 160 200 Kilometers FITOVINANY Ankazoabo Manakara 0 40 80 120 Miles ATSIMO- Ihosy ANDREFANA IHOROMBE Farafangana Sakaraha 50°E Betroka ATSIMO- Toliara Betioky Midongy- ATSINANANA ZONE 1 Atsimo ZONE 2 GSDPM Tsivory Map Design Unit Berakete ZONE 3 This map was produced by AN O SY the Map Design Unit of The ZONE 4 World Bank. The boundaries, colors, denominations and Ampanihy AN DR OY MAIN CITIES AND TOWNS any other information shown on this map do not imply, on Amboasary 25°S the part of The World Bank Androka Tolanaro REGION CAPITALS Group, any judgment on the Beloha Ambovombe legal status of any territory, NATIONAL CAPITAL or any endorsement or acceptance of such REGION BOUNDARIES boundaries. 45°E NOVEMBER 2015 The table shows minimum return periods (in years) identified for transport infrastructure: Zone Roads Drainage Bridges Dikes Surface Embankment Longitudinal Transversal Decks Pillars High Plateau, High Rainfall 150 150 50 150 300 150 150 High Plateau, Low Rainfall, 50  50 50  50 300 100 100 Occasional Flooding Watersheds in Extreme South 75  75 50  75 300 150 150 The experience of Madagascar provides several important lessons. The codes were developed at very low cost and relied heavily on local knowledge and dedicated national champions. The codes were extensively field tested and discussed with industry and communities. Awareness, training, and regulatory incentives were as important as the codes themselves. A proposed decree on building codes was discussed at length with legal experts and experienced implementers to ensure that potential loopholes would be addressed. The adopted decree was kept very simple to help ensure compliance. change as a long-term objective in the national budget The Philippines, for example, completed a Climate Change and expenditure framework, (2) improve financial tracking Public Expenditure and Institutional Review in 2013.22 It rec- and performance accountability by spending agencies, and ommend strengthening the planning, execution, and financ- (3) strengthen government financial management systems to ing framework for climate change; enhancing leadership and efficiently use external climate finance. 22 Getting a Grip on Climate Change in the Philippines, World Bank, 2013. 28 accountability; and building capacity to manage change. The 4.5 Postdisaster Risk and Recovery government is institutionalizing these recommendations to Support deepen the quality of planning, prioritization, and identifica- tion of funding gaps so that the entire budget cycle can more Many countries face increasing damage and losses from effectively support a national climate response. To date, 53 weather-related events (e.g. Samoa, Belize, and the Philip- agencies of the Philippines government have prioritized cli- pines). Ensuring that postdisaster building efforts improve mate change expenditures in their 2015 budget proposals. A climate resilience based on the principle of “building back bet- common framework for “climate change expenditure tagging” ter” is an imperative. The World Bank’s experience suggests the has been implemented across the government and is being following guiding principles for ensuring focus on enhanced piloted by local governments for the 2015 budget. Through climate resilience: its technical budget hearings, the national government has • Shift from an asset-based to a systems-based approach begun examining climate change prioritization in agency bud- to capture the interactions between the technical, social, get submissions.23 economic, and organizational components of a trans- Contingent disaster reconstruction financing by the World port system over time (Annex 3). Bank is increasingly used to support emergency measures that • Operationalize the concept of resilience to complement reduce damage to infrastructure and enable early rehabilita- risk analysis when planning and designing transport tion. The financing is triggered when a national disaster occurs projects. This means moving beyond risk management and the government asks the World Bank to reallocate loan to proactively enhancing resilience (Table 6). proceeds for post-disaster recovery. This has enabled the World Bank-financed China Fujian Fishing Ports Project to upgrade • Identify and engage with all the stakeholders who own, ports to provide shelter from storms, finance improvements to manage, and influence the resilience of transport sys- port early-warning systems, and build capacity for response. It tems before, during, and after disasters. has also been used in the Madagascar Emergency Infrastruc- ture Preservation and Vulnerability Reduction Project. These guiding principles are informing decisions throughout the various stages of disaster risk management, from prepared- Lastly, having tools in place to measure and monitor resil- ness to rebuilding after a disaster (Box 13). ience can help countries proactively adjust approaches to enhance resilience. In that regard, work is under way at the World Bank to develop an approach to measuring the reduc- tion in socioeconomic vulnerability at the national level. Such an indicator will help support policy choices and enhance resil- TABLE 6  Risk versus Resilience Approaches ience by reducing the impact of disasters on communities. Further work is planned to apply the approach to nonextreme Risk Management Resilience climate changes and pilot this in other countries and sectors. Risk analysis calculates Resilience analysis The methodology is based on a simple economic model of the probability that known improves the system’s disaster impacts. Initially piloted for river floods in 90 coun- hazards will have known response to surprises tries, it provides a qualitative scorecard covering 14 indica- impacts and accepts uncertainty, tors of well being and resilience. The score on poverty as well incomplete knowledge, and as on other indicators—access to finance, social protection, changing conditions health care, and early warning systems, especially for poor Bottom-up analysis Top-down analysis assesses people—can be increased by better transport links, especially assesses impact of hazards interdependencies and in rural areas. For instance, in Ethiopia, the incidence of pov- on component’s critical interactions at a system erty decreased by 6.7 percent after farmers gained access to functionality level all-weather roads (Dercon et al. 2009). More generally, greater Assesses the impact at one Includes a temporal interconnectedness among regions can mitigate the effects of point in time dimension weather shocks: in colonial India, for example, rainfall short- ages led to famine, but these effects disappeared almost Minimizes probabilities of Minimizes consequences of completely after communities were connected to railroads failure failure (Burgess and Donaldson 2010). Strategies include Strategies involve robustness, strengthening, adaptation, innovation, oversizing flexibility, learning, diversity, redundancy, safe failure 23 http://www.worldbank.org/en/country/philippines/publication/ mobilizing-budget-for-climate-change-in-philippines Source: World Bank 2015e. Adapted from Park et al. (2012). MOVING TOWARD CLIMATE-RESILIENT TRANSPORT 29 BOX 13  Moving toward Climate Resilience through the Disaster Risk-Management Cycle Practical measures can be implemented to build resilience in transport systems in all phases of the disaster risk management cycle, from disaster preparedness to rebuilding (see World bank 2015e): Risk Assessment and Management as Part of Disaster Preparedness • Define a central agency that can coordinate and mediate the responsibilities across the system. • Apply a design approach that is sensitive to the environment and the performance of the whole network over time. • Specify the resilience of the system as a key objective in transport planning. • Define the role of asset owners in mainstreaming as part of policy development. • Document the condition of existing infrastructure assets and provide access to such data as part of infrastruc- ture planning and design. • Engage in cross-sector coordination and innovative financial arrangements to incentivize resilience. • Increase awareness of resilience so that all stakeholders understand the need for resilience and what it entails. Emergency Response and Risk Reduction • Priorities immediately after a disaster are restoring critical lifeline routes and regaining basic access and mobility so that society can quickly resume a basic level of functionality. • Consider redundancy, diversity, flexibility, and robustness when planning for emergency recovery. • Effective recovery requires relevant and timely information and the capacity to rapidly mobilize resources. Postdisaster Recovery and Reconstruction • Establish an enabling predisaster framework that involves coordination among all stakeholders to improve the resilience of assets and systems after a disaster. • Predisaster planning must encourage a shift from a “like for like” approach in reconstruction to “building back better.” 30 “ T 5  he case for climate action has never been stronger. Given the scale of the climate challenge, the vulnerability of transport services (and thus of the markets and communities they serve), and the emerging demand shown in submitted INDCs, mainstreaming the building of resilience in the transport system will require a more systematic approach. ” Opportunities and the Way Forward T he World Bank has been working with client countries Such a framework would need to be underpinned by training on how to ensure that transport plans and investments and capacity support. Information and institutional strength- are robust to current and future climate change. Inno- ening would be required regarding the challenges of global vative methodologies, tools, and planning approaches have warming, the implications for the transport sector, and the been developed jointly with client countries and other part- available tools and techniques to build climate change consid- ners and piloted at the local level. However, given the scale of erations into planning and investment design. Better integrat- the climate challenge, the vulnerability of transport services ing climate risk considerations into planning and investments (and thus of the markets and communities they serve), and will help reduce the cost of delivering transport services, which emerging demand shown in submitted INDCs, mainstreaming are an engine of growth. the building of resilience in the transport sector will require a much more systematic approach. At the World Bank, we will scale up resources and expertise to help meet these needs together with our clients and partners. The good news is that we are not starting from scratch, as We will deploy our technical expertise, our capacity to convene, demonstrated in this report and by emerging work beyond and our engagements on the ground to further develop and the World Bank. An important opportunity now exists to work refine tools and approaches tailored for policy makers, practi- with partners to gather this experience, crowd-in the necessary tioners, and local stakeholders. The process will allow climate expertise, and translate it into a comprehensive toolkit. The change analysis to be more easily integrated into transport goal would be a structured framework for the conceptualiza- plans and investments to enhance local and countrywide cli- tion, design, and implementation of plans and operations that mate resilience. would enable transport policy makers and practitioners to incorporate climate vulnerabilities in their decisions. 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Available at: http://www.ndf.fi/project/addressing- vulnerability-infrastructure-ndf-c28. 38 ANNEX 1  CLIMATE FINANCE TRACKING T he World Bank’s internal methodology for Climate against projects. Adaptation finance tracking relates to track- Change Adaptation and Mitigation Co-benefits24 is har- ing the finance for activities that address current and expected monized across the Multilateral Development Banks that effects of climate change, where such effects are material for report jointly on an annual basis.25 It is closely aligned with the the context of those activities. International Development Finance Club through Common Principles for Mitigation26 and Adaptation27 Finance Tracking. The reporting of adaptation finance is limited solely to project activities that are identified in the project document and that: The methodology is built on the premise that development finance is being provided in a world shaped by climate change. 1. Set out a clear context of risks, vulnerabilities and impacts It recognizes that activities on climate change extend beyond related to the effects of climate change and the proj- financial support in many areas, to include, for example pro- ect: the context is set through the use of authoritative viding advice on project design and policy dialogue. Often, published analyses, such as academic journals, national technical support to clients on climate change is small in finan- communications to UNFCCC, IPCC reports, World Bank’s cial terms, but delivers major impacts for low-emission and Climate Change Knowledge Portal (cllimateknowledge- climate-resilient development. portal.worldbank.org), or original analyses using records from trusted sources and incorporating best existing Mitigation finance is based on a typology that focuses on the knowledge. The analyses should include not just histori- type of activity to be executed, and not on its purpose, the cal climate and weather patterns but projected changes origin of the financial resources or actual results. An activity is appropriate for the life span of the activities supported classified as related to climate change mitigation if it promotes by the project, e.g., for land-use planning, it would be “efforts to reduce or limit greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions 50+ years; for bridges, 30–50 years, etc. or enhance GHG sequestration.” The typology of mitigation activities is included in the 2014 Joint Report on MDB Climate 2. Make an explicit statement of intent to address the iden- Finance. tified climate risks and vulnerabilities as part of the sup- port from the project. Adaptation finance is calculated based on a context- and location-specific, conservative and granular approach that is 3. Set a clear and direct link between the risks and vulner- intended to reflect the specific focus of adaptation activities abilities identified in the first step and the project activi- and reduce the scope for over-reporting of adaptation finance ties included in the components and subcomponents or in policy actions. 24 This is important for distinguishing between a development http://go.worldbank.org/RM27OYR5F0 project contributing to climate change adaptation and a stan- 25 http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/06/24641149/ dard “good development” project. For example, revising build- 26 http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2015/04/03/common- ing codes for infrastructure design to consider the increased principles-for-tracking-climate-finance frequency or severity of extreme events would be considered 27 http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2015/07/09/ a climate adaptation co-benefit. development-banks-common-approach-climate-finance MOVING TOWARD CLIMATE-RESILIENT TRANSPORT 39 While mitigation projects often may be classified by technol- runoff is increasing or projected to increase due to the effects ogy, whether a project is adaptation or not depends on setting of climate change—and as a direct response to these events— the local context. For example, while high-volume drainage would be considered adaptation to climate change. systems in roads located in areas that have always had high precipitation and runoff would be normal good practice, the In all cases a granular approach is applied to the financing of same drainage systems incorporated in infrastructure where those project elements that directly contribute to (or promote) mitigation or adaptation. 40 ANNEX 2  WORLD BANK ADAPTATION PROJECTS IN THE TRANSPORT SECTOR Policy Development/Reform/ Knowledge Management/ Enabling Environment Total Commitment Capacity Building Climate Services Hard Measures Adaptation for Soft Measures Transport (%) Project Name Amount ($m) Fiscal Year Details China: FY11 100 48% X River channel designed to account Anhui Shaying River for climate change driven drought or Channel Improv flooding Kiribati: FY11 20 94% X Roads designed and constructed Road Rehabilitation so as to take into account rainfall Project changes and sea level rise Samoa: FY11 10 71% X X Repairing infrastructure in line with Post Tsunami improved knowledge on adaptation Reconstruction needs and updating coastal infrastructure management plans Timor Leste: FY11 20 85% X X X Improving road corridor resilience, Road Climate Resilience establishing response systems and Proj capacity building Mozambique: FY11 50 24% X X Reconstruction of roads Maputo Municipal with improved drainage and Development Prog II development of a master urban transport plan Mali: FY11 70 14% X Funding for high priority roads to Urban Local Government improve drainage and other climate Support Project related resilience OECS Countries: FY11 47 11% X X Rehabilitation and construction of Regional Disaster bridges to be more resilient, and Vulnerability Reduction. capacity building for infrastructure Projects maintenance MOVING TOWARD CLIMATE-RESILIENT TRANSPORT 41 Policy Development/Reform/ Knowledge Management/ Enabling Environment Total Commitment Capacity Building Climate Services Hard Measures Adaptation for Soft Measures Transport (%) Project Name Amount ($m) Fiscal Year Details Cambodia: FY11 40 69% X X Reconstruction of roads Typhoon Ketsana with improved drainage and Emergency Operation development of national and provincial risk maps, including risks and vulnerabilities to transport Bangladesh: FY11 75 2% X Construction of cyclone shelters and ECRRP Additional access road networks Financing—AF India: FY11 220 25% X Reconstruction of roads and bridges Bihar Kosi Flood Recovery following flooding to be more Project resilient, with new drainage to reduce risk of flooding St. Vincent and the FY11 5 13% X Rehabilitation of hurricane damaged Grenadines: road to improve resilience Hurricane Tomas Emergency Recovery Loan Togo: FY11 15 7% X Rehabilitating urban roads, Emergency Infrastructure including drainage expansion to Rehab Add Finance limit future flooding St. Lucia: FY11 15 40% X Rehabilitation of critical road Hurricane Tomas ERL infrastructure, and design to be more resilient Kiribati: FY12 23 1% X Subcomponent to finish seawall Pacific Aviation construction Investment—Kiribati Cameroon: FY12 132 6% X Construction of access roads to new Lom Pangar Hydropower dam Proj. (FY12) Brazil: FY13 300 1% X Updating States’ transport master Sao Paulo Sustainable plans to include climate risk Transport Project Ethiopia: FY14 320 4% X Financing project preparation for Road Sector Support future operations, including on road Project climate resilience 42 Policy Development/Reform/ Knowledge Management/ Enabling Environment Total Commitment Capacity Building Climate Services Hard Measures Adaptation for Soft Measures Transport (%) Project Name Amount ($m) Fiscal Year Details Haiti: FY14 58 35% X X X X Rehabilitating and climate proofing Ctr & Artibonite Reg Dev. critical road network locations, developing guidelines for climate resilient roads, support for regional planning capacity, and support for information systems for climate and disaster risk Mozambique: FY14 55 59% X X X Piloting a climate resilient road and Roads and Bridges building capacity for contractors and Management Maintenance service providers along Samoa: FY14 20 91% X X Strengthening resilience of roads Enhanced Road Access and supporting regulatory reforms Project for road asset management and standards for climate resilience Timor-Leste: FY14 40 97% X X X X Improving road climate resilience, Road Climate Resilience design of emergency maintenance Project and response systems and capacity building Tuvalu: FY14 6 25% X Mitigating impacts of climate Aviation Investment change on the road network Project Samoa: FY14 15 14% X Road use regulations revised to Development Policy enhance climate resilience Operation Grenada: FY14 15 7% X Improved design standards for roads 1st Programmatic and bridges Resilience Building DPC OECS Countries: FY14 68 25% X X Reconstruction of roads and (APL2)LC Disaster bridges to be more resilient and Vulnerability Reduction development and operationalization of a bridge maintenance plan, including integrated climate analysis China: FY14 60  28% X X X Upgrading of ports to provide Fujian Fishing Ports shelter from storms, improvement Project of port early warning systems and capacity building MOVING TOWARD CLIMATE-RESILIENT TRANSPORT 43 Policy Development/Reform/ Knowledge Management/ Enabling Environment Total Commitment Capacity Building Climate Services Hard Measures Adaptation for Soft Measures Transport (%) Project Name Amount ($m) Fiscal Year Details Dominica: FY14 38  28% X Rehabilitation of selected primary Disaster Vulnerability and secondary roads and bridges to Reduction (APL3) reduce vulnerability Djibouti: FY14 6  16% X Financing of urban roads and 2nd Urban Poverty drainage to reduce exposure to Reduction Pj-PREPUD II flood risks Sri Lanka: FY14 110  20% X Augmenting and improving roads Improving Climate and bridges to increase resilience to Resilience climate change Bangladesh: FY14 140  33% X Construction of additional cyclone Emergency Cyclone shelters and associated access roads Recovery Project AF St. Vincent and the FY14 41  25% X Bridge rehabilitation and road Grenadines: realignment to repair flood damage RDVRP (AF) and increase disaster resilience India: FY14 153   3% X Improvement of road infrastructure Odisha Disaster Recovery in urban areas to be more resilient Project Bosnia and Herzegovina: FY14 100  40% X Rehabilitation of key road Floods Emergency infrastructure following flooding Recovery Project Burundi: FY15 25  40% X X X Rehabilitation of key roads to Infrastructure Resilience include climate resilience and Emergency drainage, capacity building, and development of risk evaluation monitoring tools Fiji: FY15 50 100% X X Upgrading road infrastructure to be Transport Infrastructure more resilient and updating design Investment Proj standards and specifications of roads to incorporate climate change impacts Macedonia, FYR FY15 71  3% X X Rehabilitating roads while Road Rehabilitation accounting for climate impacts to prevent flooding, and financing economic evaluations of potential road investments with climate resilience measures 44 Policy Development/Reform/ Knowledge Management/ Enabling Environment Total Commitment Capacity Building Climate Services Hard Measures Adaptation for Soft Measures Transport (%) Project Name Amount ($m) Fiscal Year Details Vanuatu: FY15 60  28% X Strengthening the climate resilience Aviation Investment of airport infrastructure Project Vietnam: FY15 124  19% X Incorporating climate resilience HCMC Green Transport along bus corridor Development Mozambique: FY15 50  14% X Vulnerability survey of unpaved Second Climate Change roads in three provinces approved DPO and design standards are revised to strengthen climate resilience Belize: FY15 30  37% X X Retrofitting and rehabilitation of Climate-Resilient existing primary and secondary Infrastructure. roads to improve resilience and capacity building in the Ministry of Transport and Works on climate risk Bangladesh: FY15 375  10% X Improvement and construction of Multipurpose Disaster roads to provide connectivity to Shelter Project disaster shelters India: FY15 250  16% X Reconstruction of road Jhelum and Tawi Flood infrastructure to better withstand Recovery Proj flooding MOVING TOWARD CLIMATE-RESILIENT TRANSPORT 45 ANNEX 3  ENHANCING RESILIENCE OF BELIZE’S TRANSPORT NETWORK THROUGH A PARTICIPATORY EVALUATION AND PRIORITIZATION PROCESS T he government of Belize integrated a participatory and The criterion of flooding at crossings was determined on the information-based process into its administrative coun- basis of the following observations and assumptions: (1) flood- try structures and routines. The method was developed ing occurs most frequently at crossings of streams and roads and implemented in about 18 months and included the par- due to insufficient capacity of road drainage structures (bridges ticipation of three main groups: (1) a team of technical repre- and culverts); and (2) where stream crossing are in bad condi- sentatives from public, private, and NGO entities; (2) CEOs from tion (obstructed or damaged), the hydraulic capacity is further all involved ministries; and (3) the cabinet. The prioritization reduced and the problem increased. These two assumptions process was based on two pillars: flood susceptibility evalua- translated into the indicators number of streams crossing the tion and the determination of socioeconomic criticality of the road, and condition of the crossings. primary and secondary road network. For the hazard evalu- ation, an indicator-based approach was used, and criticality The criterion Indications of past river floods aims at integrat- was assessed through a participatory multicriteria evaluation ing all available information on past events, indications from process.28 experts and existing studies, and flood characteristics. Flood susceptibility information and flood records from newspapers, The flood susceptibility evaluation applied an indicator- expert information, and mapping of the flood extent after based approach that considered two criteria: Flooding at Tropical Depressions 16 formed the information base. In addi- stream crossings and Indications of prior river floods that impact tion, type of flooding is also included given the varied impacts segments of the road network (Figure 8). The choice of the on transportation networks: flash floods occur in sloped areas, methodology was determined by (1) the lack of sufficient have a quick onset, and recede quickly after the rainfall events, hydro-meteorological and bathymetric data and of suitable- whereas floods in plane areas may rise more slowly but may resolution topography; (2) the extent and large scale of the stay longer and thereby impede traffic for a longer time. analysis needed; and (3) limited time and financial resources. The following data and information was used: a digital eleva- Weights were assigned under the assumption that the indi- tion model; the stream network; an inventory of the bridges cators as well as the criteria differ in the level of contribution and culverts that included information on their type, material, toward overall flood susceptibility. For the analysis, the road size, and condition; countrywide small-scale flood susceptibil- network was segmented into 5 km stretches, and the anal- ity based on assessments conducted in 1993; flood extent ysis classified each stretch as having high, medium, or low mapped after Tropical Depression 16 and flood records from susceptibility. newscasts. Additional information was collected during a field The criticality analysis was carried out through a Multi Criteria visit and in-depth conversations with engineers from the Min- Evaluation (MCE) approach which is a decision-making tool istry of Works and Transport. developed to prioritize and rank options. It is based on the combined consideration of multiple qualitative and quanti- tative criteria. A key feature of an MCE is its emphasis on the 28 A summary of the process can be found in Annex 2 in the Project Appraisal judgment of a decision-making team in establishing criteria Document available from http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/ and estimating relative importance (weights) for each perfor- WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2014/08/05/000350881_20140805100313/ mance criterion (Figure 9). Thus, it is a participatory approach Rendered/PDF/PAD7120PAD0P120IC0Disclosed08050140.pdf that can involve a multitude of stakeholders. 46 FIGURE 8  Flood Susceptibility Analysis Approach: The river flood susceptibility consists of two criteria (dark blue and dark orange boxes) which are composed of multiple indicators (light blue and light orange boxes). The percentage values shown are the weights applied to each criterion and indicator. River Flood Susceptibility Flooding at Indications of Stream Crossings Past River Floods 60% 40% Number of Streams Conditions of Flood Susceptibility Flood Type of Crossing the Road the Crossings (King et al. 1993) Records Flooding 70% 30% 45% 45% 10% FIGURE 9  Criticality Is a Result of the Seven Criteria (top tier of boxes) Weighted by the Percentages Shown. Each criterion is evaluated according to the indicators in the second tier of boxes. Criticality Adequacy Connectivity Access to Use as Essential Access of Relief Regarding Dependency Between Production Socially Part of the Condition Services to Current Demand/ on the Road Sites and (Air)ports Vulnerable Evacuation Communities Level of Use and Border Crossings Population Network 16.52% 14.57% 16.50% 11.35% 9.37% 13.79% 17.90% Pavement Level of Existence of Connectivity in the Access to Number of Evacuation Maintenance Service Alternative Network of Sugar Population: Villages Index Based Condition/ Routes Cane Production, 1. Above the Connected to on Evacuee Bridge Condition Processing and age of Relief Supply Population Number of Export Lanes 60 years by the Road That Will Use Drainage 2. Below the the Road Channel Connectivity in the age of Population Condition Network of Citrus 8 years Connected to Fruit Production, Shoulder 3. Self-reported Relief Supply Processing and Condition vulnerability by the Road Export Time Connectivity in the Required for Network of Oil Reconstruction Production, Processing and Export Connectivity in the Network of Banana Production, Processing and Export The result of the MCE process and calculations is an overall presented to the cabinet, which selected the area around Belize criticality value for each road stretch of the primary and sec- City as the first intervention. The government of Belize has ondary road network. since leveraged additional funds to address the other priority sites. The combination of high criticality and high flood susceptibil- ity yielded four priority areas (Figure 10). The findings were MOVING TOWARD CLIMATE-RESILIENT TRANSPORT 47 FIGURE 10  Priority Areas for Climate Resilience Intervention Based on Socioeconomic Criticality and Flood Susceptibility IBRD 42005 This map was produced by the Map Design Unit of The World Bank. The boundaries, colors, denominations and any other information shown on this map do not imply, on the part of The World Bank Group, any judgment on the legal status of any territory, or any Santa Elena MEX I CO endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Consejo Bahia Chetumal Corozal Sarteneja GSDPM Map Design Unit San Narcisco Progresso MEXICO COR OZ A L Orange Walk Town Honey Camp Trinidad Guinea Grass San Pedro San Felipe Fireburn Corozalito Crooked Tree Caribbean Sea O R AN GE Biscayne Caye Chappel WALK Ladyville Rancho Dolores BELIZ E Belize Hattieville City La Democracia St. Matthews Spanish Lookout BELMOPAN San Ignacio Gales Point G U AT E M A L A Benque Viejo Dangriga C AYO Alta Vista Hopkins STA NN Sittee River CREEK BELIZE Maya Beach ROAD CONDITIONS (CRITICALITY): LOW Independence Placencia TO LEDO Tambran HIGH Monkey River RIVER FLOOD SUSCEPTIBILITY: HIGH MEDIUM Big Falls OTHER ROADS PRIORITY AREAS SETTLEMENTS Punta Gorda SELECTED CITIES Bahia DISTRICT CAPITALS de A m a t i q ue NATIONAL CAPITAL DISTRICT BOUNDARIES INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARIES NOVEMBER 2015 48