LATIN AMERICA & 79528 CARIBBEAN REGION Environment & Water Resources OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources Management Adaptation Challenges and Opportunities in Northeast Brazil Environment and Water Resources LCSEN Occasional Paper Series The Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) region has a unique mix of qualities and challenges when it comes to the environment. It is exceptionally endowed with natural assets, with globally significant biodiversity and valuable crops, and also harbors the world’s greatest carbon sink in the Amazon. At the same time, however, the region registers the highest rates of urbanization Climate Change Impacts on in the developing world with pollution, overuse of its water and natural resources and detrimental impacts on the health of people, especially the poor, and the environment. Water Resources Management Over the past twenty years, the LAC region has made impressive Adaptation Challenges and gains in tackling these issues. It leads the developing world in Opportunities in Northeast Brazil biodiversity conservation and natural resource management and Eduardo Sávio Martins, President, Meteorology and Water Resource, Center of Ceará State is at the forefront in reducing urban pollution. The World Bank Cybelle Frazão Costa Braga, Consultant, World Bank Francisco de Assis de Souza Filho, Professor, Federal University of Ceará has often been the partner of choice for those countries in the Marcia Alcoforado de Moraes, Professor, Federal University of Pernambuco Guilherme Marques, Professor, Federal Center for Technological Education region that have had the initiative to pioneer innovative policies Eduardo Mario Mendiondo, Professor, University of São Paulo for environmental protection and natural resource management, Marcos Airton de Souza Freitas, Senior Water Resources Specialist, Brazil National Water Agency Victor Vazquez, Water and Sanitation Specialist, World Bank strengthen institutions responsible for environmental Nathan Engle, Climate Adaptation Specialist, World Bank Erwin De Nys, Senior Water Resources Specialist, World Bank management, enhance environmental sustainability, and introduce new approaches to water resources management. Such initiatives include fuel and air quality standards in Peru, carbon emission reduction in Mexico, payment for ecosystem Water Management in a Warmer services in Costa Rica, participatory and integrated water resources management in Brazil, and new approaches to and Drier Northeast Brazil irrigation management in Mexico. Most of Northeast Brazil is located in the semi-arid ‘sertão’, an area that receives less than 800 millimeters of rainfall per year The Environment & Water Resources Occasional Paper Series, on average. In addition to low precipitation, rainfall variability in is a publication of the Environment and Water Resources Unit the region is among the highest in the world. Reservoirs were (LCSEN) of the Sustainable Development Department in the the traditional response to droughts for more than 100 years, World Bank’s Latin America and the Caribbean Region. The but were operated with insufficient attention to institutional purpose of the series is to contribute to the global knowledge arrangements for water resources planning and management. exchange on innovation in environmental and water resources management and the pursuit of greener and more inclusive Until the early 1990s, water distribution and integration within growth. The papers seek to bring to a broader public – decision and between states’ river basins was also lacking. Water use was makers, development practitioners, academics and other uncontrolled and free, and primary users participated minimally partners - lessons learned from World Bank-financed projects, in water management decisions. Until recently, recurrent droughts technical assistance and other knowledge activities jointly regularly resulted in major migrations out of the Northeast. undertaken with our partners. The series addresses issues Although poverty persists, there are significant efforts under relevant to the region’s environmental sustainability agenda from way to bolster economic and social development throughout the water resources management to environmental health, natural region and to improve water management options and decisions. resource management, biodiversity conservation, environmental policy, pollution management, environmental institutions and After the adoption of a new National Water Law in 1997, the governance, ecosystem services, environmental financing, federal government of Brazil, along with several Brazilian states, climate change and their linkages to development and growth. started water sector reforms, which included decentralizing water management at the river basin level, initiating bulk water use In this particular paper, we present you the findings of an innovative approach which evaluates the implications of climate charges, and emphasizing stakeholder participation processes change for water management in the Northeast Region of Brazil. in planning and allocation decisions. Despite these and other The project has contributed to raising awareness of the drought reforms (for example, new water storage and conveyance projects), conditions that are expected to intensify in Northeast Brazil and droughts throughout the 2000s, and most recently in 2010 and the stress that climate change, combined with population growth 2012, have shown that the region still remains vulnerable. and changes in patterns of demand for water, might place on Projections from global climate models have broadly indicated the water systems in this region. This publication is the shorter increases in drought for the Northeast. However, few if any studies version of the full report highlighting some of the main findings of have detailed the potential impacts of a warmer world specifically the project towards steps to address these issues. on the climate, hydrology, and socioeconomic conditions of We hope that this paper, just as the entire series, will make a contribution Northeast Brazil. Within this context, the World Bank worked to knowledge sharing within the LAC Region and globally. with the government of Brazil to improve understanding of what Karin Kemper the future might hold for this rapidly growing region. Additionally, Sector Manager, Environment & Water Resources the project sought to identify what opportunities might exist for Sustainable Development Department increasing flexibility within water management in the face of Latin America and the Caribbean Region population growth and climate uncertainty. Figure 1. Northeast Brazil Climate Change Projections, 1971–2000 and 2041–2070 Figure 2. Ratio of Projected Future versus Current Guaranteed Flow Rates for River Systems and Reservoirs Note: Figure shows ratio of projected future (2041-2070 period) and current (1971- 2000) guaranteed flow rate (Q90) for the Jaguaribe river basin system and its three main reservoirs (Orós, Castanhão, Banabuiu) and the Piranhas-Açu system and its two main reservoirs (Coremas, Assu + Oiticica) under the B1 emission scenario using the INCM3 and MIMR climatic models. Q90 corresponds to the flow that is exceeded 90 percent of the time and is generally used for granting water rights in Brazil. All values are below the 1.0 mark and thus indicate a decrease of the projected future guaranteed flow rate compared to the current situation. through a stakeholder engagement process. These institutions Note: Figure shows mean annual precipitation, mean annual evapotranspiration, included the National Water Agency (ANA), the water resources and drought index (precipitation divided by evapotranspiration) for the periods administrations from the three Northeast states covering the two 1971–2000 and 2041–2070 (projected) using the MIMR climatic model under the B1 emission scenario. Evolution to more reddish color corresponds to increased river basins (Ceará, Rio Grande do Norte, and Paraíba), and other drought, due to reduced rainfall and/or increased evapotranspiration. water users and members of civil society represented through the two river basin committees. The project implemented a series of two-day workshops from May 2011 to April 2012, during which the Increased Droughts and Exploring participants developed findings, widened knowledge, and shared insights through several iterative steps. Potential Trade-offs First the group evaluated the extent to which climate change would The project looked specifically at climate change and water impact the Northeast, particularly the effects on the hydrology of demand impacts, as well as adaptation options in two river the river basins and water availability. Regression models were basins, the Jaguaribe (state of Ceará) and Piranhas-Açu (states used to downscale temperature and rainfall projections from of Rio Grande do Norte and Paraíba). To build sustained capacity three climatic models, each forced with the A2 and B1 emission and train professionals in the region, a multidisciplinary group scenarios of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report.2 The time of six Brazilian experts from different universities and research periods used for the present and future scenarios were 1971– agencies helped develop the project approach, and a group of 2000 and 2041–2070 respectively. The evaluation showed that roughly 50 professionals from different institutions and additional broadly, the Northeast Region would experience reductions in experts from abroad participated in and benefited from the project mean annual precipitation combined with increased mean annual evapotranspiration (the water loss through evaporation and plant Table 1. Changes in Precipitation, Evapotranspiration, and Flow for Reservoirs transpiration), ultimately suggesting an increased likelihood of P [%] ETP {%} Q {%} droughts over the coming decades in the region (figure 1). More Reservoir specifically in the river basins, the changes would represent an INCM3 MIMR INCM3 MIMR INCM3 MIMR average increase in mean annual evapotranspiration of 5–15 Banabuiu -0,04 -0,24 0,02 0,12 -0,20 -0,73 percent and significant increases in interannual rainfall variability. Castanhão 0,01 0,00 0,03 0,13 -0,07 -0,26 These increases would lead to reductions in surface runoff and Orós 0,01 0,00 0,03 0,13 -0,05 -0,21 flow (table 1). Across the board, these findings show greater future Armando Ribeiro water scarcity in these basins, with important impacts on water -0,05 -0,06 0,04 0,11 0,06 -0,13 Gonçalves allocation, as highlighted by percentage reduction in guaranteed Coremas Mãe flow rates (figure 2). The impacts were found to be somewhat -0,13 -0,07 0,04 0,12 -0,44 -0,47 greater in the Piranhas-Açu basin than in the Jaguaribe basin. d’�gua Note: Table shows changes (%) in average annual precipitation (P), potential Next, the group estimated current and future water demands in the evapotranspiration (ETP), and flow (Q) for the five main reservoirs in the river basins of Jaguaribe (Banabuiu, Castanhão, Orós) and Piranhas-Açu (Armando Ribeiro two river basins. Future demand was based on several projections, Gonçalves and Coremas) under the B1 emission scenario and using the INCM3 including population growth, water management approaches, and MIMR climatic models. The blue-rimmed items correspond to significant and potential evapotranspiration. Evaluating these factors projected changes compared to the 1971-2000 period. 1. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007. illustrated that water demand is projected to increase over the impact irrigated agriculture by as much as US$24 million per year coming decades, mainly due to population growth. Moreover, the on average, or a 41 percent reduction in the economic return of marginal impacts of demand projections on water allocation are the irrigated agriculture, with little or no additional benefits to the greater than those corresponding to climate scenarios. However, urban supply sector. On the other hand, placing higher priority increased evapotranspiration from climate change will serve as an on irrigated agriculture (but still less so than urban supply) could overlying stress on the basins’ water resources. result in a US$6 million per year on average gain for irrigated agriculture, with little or no losses to urban supply services. The analysis of future water demands was then merged with the climate and hydrology results to identify potential impacts on Taken together, the results from this process indicate that while water supply and availability for particular sectors of the economy real future trade-offs will likely exist and should be negotiated and (irrigation and urban water supply). Several strategies combining discussed between water users, more flexible allocation strategies different water allocations and user priorities were developed to could make the water sector in Northeast Brazil as a whole less investigate potential opportunities to mitigate the impacts. For vulnerable to demand and climate change impacts. For irrigated example, some strategies had water allocated and prioritized agriculture, there may be a reduction in the uncertainty if more differently across urban supply, irrigation, and reservoir storage. flexible water management rules are adopted. Furthermore, there The analysis also took into account the possibility of increased are potential benefits from improving demand management and water supply through water transfers from the São Francisco river structuring the allocation process in a way that still prioritizes basin under the São Francisco Integration Project, which is currently urban use, but grants irrigators greater access to the water in the under implementation. reservoirs, water that is often currently (and conservatively) stored for urban supply. Figure 3. Impact of Different Water Allocation Strategies on meeting the water demands of irrigated agriculture and urban consumption The associated trade-offs and impacts in the urban and irrigated agriculture sectors for any situation wherein allocations are not met could be so significant that these issues need to be further investigated for proper identification of feasible solutions involving alternative water allocation in the basins. Overall, the challenges are greatest in the Piranhas-Açu basin. First, the marginal impacts of climate change in the Piranhas-Açu basin are greater than those identified in the Jaguaribe basin in all climate scenarios. This is not only due to the differences in climate between the two basins, but also due to the substantial investments in infrastructure made in the Jaguaribe river basin from the late 1980s until now, compared to the Piranhas-Açu. Similarly, the combined climate change and demand impacts in the Piranhas-Açu basin are greater than those in the Jaguaribe; this implies an urgent need for investment in infrastructure and Note: Figure shows percentage of unmet water demand for irrigation (green color) development of institutional and legal frameworks in this basin. and urban consumption (blue color) in the Piranhas-Açu river basin under the current water allocation strategy and an alternative strategy, using the climatic Using flexible reservoir operation rules, along with water transfers models INCM3 and MIMR, for a scenario of future water demand. within and between basins, might help mitigate such impacts. Figure 3, for example, compares the current practice of water allocation (i.e., with absolute priority for urban demands, and Pilot Adaptation Actions at the Local Level always keeping a minimum level of reservoir storage at 30 In addition to the analyses at the river basin level, the project percent capacity) with a more flexible alternative (i.e., keeping the evaluated two examples of adaptation to future water scarcity highest priority to urban demand, but giving priority to irrigation at the local level. Since adaptation to climate risk occurs to and industry over reservoir storage). The results show that the a great extent at the local level, the project sought to analyze more flexible alternative strategy would strongly reduce the water the vulnerabilities to current and future climate, as well as the scarcity that is experienced by the irrigated agriculture sector, with socioeconomic and institutional constraints to making such no or negligible impact on the urban demand. This result indicates adaptations. The first case, Cruzeta (located in the Piranhas-Açu the potential for improvement in the current system of water river basin), highlights adaptive strategies for improving reservoir management in the river basin with benefits for all users. management in a changing climate. The second case, �guas do The impact evaluation also included an economic component that Vale (in the Jaguaribe river basin), describes the real case during looked at the effects and trade-offs between the urban supply and the extreme drought of 1998–2001 where the introduction of irrigation sectors. The analysis for the Piranhas-Açu river basin flexible water allocation and economic compensation mechanisms found that, in economic terms, maintaining the current water amongst irrigators proved to be a useful and illustrative drought allocation strategy (highest priority to urban demands and lowest management strategy. to irrigation demands) under climate change could negatively Cruzeta Conclusion and Next Steps The municipality of Cruzeta is located in the heart of the sertão. A This project proved to be a critical first step in better understanding surface reservoir provides water to its 8,000 inhabitants as well how climate change will translate to water scarcity, and how as to an irrigation scheme of about 125 hectares cultivated by 30 the drought-prone and rapidly developing Northeast Region of smallholder families. Under climate change, irrigated agriculture Brazil could adapt through more flexible water management and would see its water demand increase substantially and its water allocation strategies. The analyses helped build knowledge and allocation guarantee diminish. As an adaptation measure, and awareness of the drought conditions that are expected to intensify to help supply the water demand for both human consumption in Northeast Brazil and the stress that climate change, combined and irrigated agriculture, investments are being made to improve with population growth and changes in patterns of demand for efficiency throughout the irrigation canal system and at the level of the water, might place on the water systems in this region. The project individual farm plots. Modernization efforts include new water-saving yielded many useful products and tools, including a model process methods such as on-farm microsprinkler irrigation and improved for facilitating more integrated water resources discussions, operation of the canal system, which are estimated to reduce the planning, and capacity building. The next step includes working water demand of the irrigation scheme by up to 40 percent. On top of with decision makers on how to take into account possible climate this, understanding how the water storage reservoir performs under change outcomes and hydrological impacts in their investment various climate change scenarios proved important for gauging the plans and future choices. Given the significant amount of World adequacy of current and future water and agriculture policies in Bank financed investments in Northeast Brazil and its commitment Cruzeta and across the region. to climate change adaptation projects and investments globally, This pilot case highlights that as with the region as a whole, the Cruzeta there are expectations among federal and state officials, as well as system will likely face increases in evapotranspiration, which could other project participants, that the lessons from this project should lead to substantial increases in irrigation water demands. However, help shape future investments, knowledge building, cross-sectoral irrigation modernization improvements, both in infrastructure and in integration, cooperation, and institutional dialogue. management, would decrease this demand by up to 40 percent. The case also shows that water managers operating the reservoir system are extremely risk averse and assume zero flows in planning for future Publications from the years. Here, using climate information could help improve decisions and ultimately free up more water for use during years of expected high LCSEN Occasional Paper Series rainfall, thus avoiding unnecessary rationing. Moreover, managing and transferring risk from high-priority uses (urban supply) to lower Environment & Water Resources priorities (irrigation) could be more efficiently managed under future n Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources and Adaptation in climate change, particularly with the modernization of irrigation. the Rural Water Supply and Sanitation Sector in Nicaragua (2013) (Available in English and Spanish) �guas do Vale n Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources Management: Adaptation Challenges and Opportunities in Northeast Brazil (2013) �guas do Vale, also known as the Rationing Plan for Water Use in Irrigation for the Jaguaribe and Banabuiu Valleys, is an innovative n El Futuro del Riego en el Perú: Desafíos y Recomendaciones water allocation program that was introduced in the state of (Volumen I: Informe de Síntesis y Volumen II : Informe Principal) Ceará during a particularly dry period (1998–2001). It consisted (2013) of emergency measures to mitigate water conflicts and damaging n Empowering Women in Irrigation Management: The Sierra in Peru impacts of the drought on irrigation investments. (2012) Essentially, the program instituted measures to increase irrigation efficiency by providing certain farmers with incentives through water n Environmental Health in Nicaragua: Addressing Key Environmental payments to shift away from low-value but high-water-use crops Challenges (Originally Published in 2010, Republished in 2012) (Available in Spanish and English) (mainly rice) to low-water-use and higher-value crops (mainly fruit). The basic mechanism was to encourage certain producers to stop n Expanding Financing for Biodiversity Conservation: Experiences cultivating rice, and transfer some of the efficiency gains to those from Latin America and the Caribbean (2012) (Available in English who were producing higher-efficiency and higher-value crops. and Spanish) Overall, the �guas do Vale experience illustrates the potential for n Overcoming Institutional and Governance Challenges in innovative adaptation and drought management strategies that focus Environmental Management. Case Studies from Latin America and on the reallocation of water through negotiated and participatory the Caribbean Region (2012) mechanisms, and also the value of institutionalizing a bulk water pricing and permit system for irrigated agriculture. This case was not n Policy and Investment Priorities to Reduce Environmental without some challenges, however, such as resistance to changing Degradation of the Lake Nicaragua Watershed (Cocibolca) irrigation methods and technologies, the need for a robust system (Originally Published in 2010, Republished in 2012) (Available in of monitoring, enforcement of the market created by the program Spanish and English) to improve its efficacy and success, and the need to increase the n Uncertain Future, Robust Decisions; The Case of Climate Change use of climate information in assessing future water supply and Adaptation in Campeche, Mexico (2012) demand risks. Still, this initiative indicated a clearer perception of the economic value of water, which has shown potential to be further To find copies of these publications, please visit our website: explored in water management instruments involving temporary and www.worldbank.org/lac permanent water transfers, as well as water tariffs. LATIN AMERICA & CARIBBEAN REGION Environment & Water Resources OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES © 2013 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. The Environment and Water Resources Occasional Paper Series was developed under the direction of Karin Kemper, Sector Manager for Environment and Water Resources in the Latin America and Caribbean Region (LCSEN) of the World Bank. The publications in this Series were designed and produced by GRC Direct under the supervision of Emilia Battaglini and Rachel Pasternack (LCSEN). A list of the most recent papers is located at the end of this publication. For electronic copies of all our LAC Environment & Water Resources Occasional Papers please visit our website: www.worldbank.org/lac Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages dissemination of its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given. 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