rDnE n@ DOCUMENT OF INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL DEVIELOPMENT ASSOCIATION Not For Public Use Report No. 212-SE THE ECONOMY OF SENEGAL (in f-Lve volumes) Volume IV Planning Methods and Plan Implementation August 15, 1973 Western Africa Regional Office This report was prepared for official use only by the Bank Group. It may not be published, quoted or cited without Bank Group authorization, The Bank Group does not accept responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the repoit. CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS Currency.Unit: CFA Franc (CFAF) Before August 11, 1969: US$ 1.00 = CFAF 246.85 CFAF 1,000 = US$ 4.0o5 August 1969 - December 1971: US$ 1.00 CFAF 277.71 CFAF 1,000 - US$ 3.60 December 1971 - March 1973: US$ 1.00 = CFAF 255.79 CFAF 1,OOO = US$ 3.91 WEIGHTS AND MEASURES 1 Metric Ton (t) = 2,205 lbs. 1 Kilogram (kg) = 2.2 lbs. 1 Kilometer (km) 0.62 mile 1 Meter (m) = 3,28 feet GOVERNMENT 0 SENEGAL FISCAL YEAR July 1 to June 30 THE ECC5JOrY OF SENEC-AL VolLne I Summary and Conclusion Main Report Volume II Annex One: Public Finances, Present Situation and Outlook Annex Two: Working Rules of the BCEAO Annex Three: Agriculture Annex Four: Manufacturing Industries Volw;!e III The Tax System of Senagal Volume IV Planning Methods and Plan Implementation Volume V Statistical Appendix This Report is based on a mission in February/March 1972 to Senegal composed of: HtiiiL B. Bachlutiarin Chief of Mission Jacqueline 1NoKl General Economist Louis Currat General Economist Cynthia Miller Statistician Georges Delhove Industry (Consultant) tTberto Fontana Agronomist (P14WA) Joseph Gholl Demographer Mohamed El Moghazi Agricultural Economist (PI{4A) Prof. Sylvaini Plasschaert Fiscal (Consultant) Nimrod Raphaeli Plan Organizer Marie-Thrs'3se Bellot Secretary It takes into account the comments given by the Governmen, of Senegal in December 1972 and in March 1973. THE ECONOMY OF SENEGAL Volume IV: PLANNING METHODS AND PLAN IMPLEMENTATION Table of Contents Page No. SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS ..... .................... i-ii A. INTRODUCTION ........................................ 1 B. THE PLANNING MACHINERY ........... ................... 2 a. The Planning Directorate .................... ... 3 b. The Directorate for Plan Financing ............. 3 c. The Directorate for Physical Planning ......... . 3 d. The Directorate for Scientific and Technical Affairs ....... .............. . 4 e. The Directorate of Cooperation ................ . 4 f. Bureau d'Etudes ...... .............. 4 g. The Planning Commissions ................ 4 h. Supreme Planning Council ................ 5 i. The Ministry of Finance ..... ........... 5 j. Team of UN Experts ...... ....................... 6 C. THE METHODOLOGY OF PLANNING ......................... 7 a. General ........................................ 7 b. Planning in the Technical Ministries ........... 8 c. The Methodology of the Fourth Plan . ............ 9 d. Regionalizatior ......1.......................... 1 D. RECOMMENDATIONS ..................................... 12 1. Preparation of the Fourth Plan .............. ... 12 a. Phasing of Plan Preparation ....... ........ 12 b. Setting of Priorities , .. . 13 c. Submissions of Project Proposals on a Continucus Basis .......... .. ............ 14 d. Project Preparation and Planning by the Technical Ministries ........ .. .......... 14 2. The Control of Plan Implementation .... ......... 16 3. The Directorate of Planning .............. * ..... 17 ANNEX I Taches de Planification - Definition - Niveaux de Responsabilite - Dates d'Achevement ANNEX II Project Proposal Form This volume was prepared by Nimrod Raphaeli. SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS 1. Senegal is currently implementing its third four-year plan, 1969/70-1972/73, while contemplating the preparation of the fourth. 2. The technical capacity of the Ministry of Planning to produce a viable economic plan for the years 1973/74-1976/77 to meet the deadline set for June 1973 is limited, even including the team of experts financed by UNDP who arrived in Senegal in Spring 1972. In the entire Directorate of Plan- ning, which is the unit most closely involved in the preparation of the next plan, there is one single Senegalese professional. Planning on the level of the operating ministries is still a gleam on the horizon. 3. In order to escape a situation which would pressure the Govern- ment into producing another plan with all the methodological and structural shortcomings characteristic of the previous ones, it is recommended: (a) that the Government decide in advance the magnitude of public investments for the entire four years and set a "ceiling" for every ministry in order to avoid the previous method of assembling the national plan from separate and random lists of projects prepared by the operating ministries; (b) that the Government present to the National Assembly for approval a plan frame which indicates the overall targets for total public investment envisaged during the four-year period of the plan. In addition, the plan frame will present a list limited to ongoing projects as well as projects which are clearly priority items, well-prepared and appear to have a reasonable chance of execution during the first year of the plan; (c) that detailed planning should thus concentrate on the remain- ing three years of the plan period (1974/75-1976/77). This will give the Ministry of Planning and the operating minis- tries an additional year to prepare projects and establish priorities within the sectors. Planning for this period can be done either by preparing at once a list of projects for the three years or by doing project preparation on a year-by-year schedule. The second alternative is preferred. In this case, certain organization changes, which are fully explained in the report, ought to be made in order to facilitate the pro- cessing of projects on a continuous basis; (d) that the Planning Conmissions, both horizontal and vertical, which participated in the elaboration of the previous plans, either be adjusted to the proposed methodology or abolished. It is assumed that the latter course is preferable because the process of planning would be greatly accelerated; - ii - (e) that the planning bureaus in each technical ministry could be greatly strengthened by the establishment of a Bureau of Planning which would help bring together all the avail- able professional talent in planning and project preparation in each of the ministries; (f) that Senegal introduce sectorial planning. Introduction of pilot sectorial planning in the Ministry of Rural Develop- ment, whose domain has received the highest preference both in the previous, as well as in the next plan, should be considered; (g) that greater attention be given to the control of plan imple- mentation. A system of progress reporting is urgently needed; (h) that staffing for the Ministry of Planning in general and for the Directorate of Planning in particular should be strengthened by a vigorous recruitment drive of-young graduates of the School of Applied Economics followed by on-the-job as well as other forms of training. This would seem to be the best solution in the long-term effort to build a local professional staff. A. INTRODUCTION 1. Development planning in Senegal has resulted in a series of four- year plans. The first plan covered the fiscal period 1961/62-1964/65, and the second plan 1965/66-1968/69. A third plan 1969/70-1972/73 is being im- plemented and a fourth plan 1973/74-1976/77 is in the initial stages of preparation. The first three plans have all been of the "shopping list" variety, projects have been listed at random, without much order of prior- ity, and of the many projects listed, most have been either "pre-projects" or "ideas of projects" (avant-projets et idees de projet). 2. This report is basically concerned with the planning process and machinery necessary for the preparation and execution of the fourth plan. Thus it suffices to review planning during the third four-year plan, and only provided it is relevant tD the preparation of the fourth. In making the recommendations, special attention has been given to the country's administrative capacity on the one hand and its tolerance for adapting to change on the other. 3. The third plan has been labelled by the Senegalese as a plan of projects rather than a plan of targets or objectives. The plan consists of a list of projects ("catalogue de projet") compiled from separate lists prepared by the technical ministries and made up of projects, pre-projects and ideas of projects, with little relevance to financial constraints, economic priorities, or administrative and executive capabilities. 4. The plan offers a number of hypotheses regarding the global ob- jectives set for the economy at the end of the four-year plan period as well as for the year 2000. With regard to the medium-term objectives, the plan projects an annual growth in the GNP of 5-1/2 percent, equilibrium in the balance of payments in the year 1973, and an increase in administrative expenses limited to three percent per annum. The planners envisage Senegal in the year 2000 as an industrial state with income per capita more than triple that prevailing in 1969, calculated on the assumption of a population growth of 2.2 percent per annum, reaching 7.4 million at the end of the century. The GNP is projected to reach 1,100 billion CFA which assumes a continued rate of growth of 5-1/2 percent per annum. Growth patterns since 1969 do not support these projections and if the targets are to be achieved, plans need to be more than simple catalogs of project ideas--they ought to articulate policies and design methods for their implementation. - 2 - B. THE PLANNING MACHINERY 5. The Ministry of Planning and Cooperation (Ministere du Plan et de la Cooperation) is the central planning agency of Senegal. It came into existence late in 1970 as the State Secretariat for Planning replacing the former Ministry of Planning and Industry and was made a full ministry in Spring 1973. The decree creating the Secretariat and defining its func- tions and responsibilities had been the product of constitutional reforms in Senegal in that year, which established a new office of Prime Minister (primature). Under the reforms the President has retained full control over international and cultural affairs while the Prime Minister has emer- ged in practice as the person in charge of economic affairs. The Secre- tariat for Planning was headed by a Secretary of State (Secretaire d'etat) who operated within the Primature, directly under the Prime Minister. The decree states that in liaison with other departments, the Secretariat of Planning is responsible for preparing studies conducive to the elaboration of the plans and for providing the means neces- sary for their execution, for following up the execution of each project within the different sectors..., for controlling the execution of the plan and for evaluating the results. ("...preparer les etudes conduisant a l'Klabo- ration des plans et a la predvision des moyens necessaires a leur execution, de suivre la realisation de chaque projet spe"cifique dans les diffe'rents secteurs de la vie nationale, de controler 1 'execution du Plan et d'en e'valuer les resultats"). The newly created Ministry of Planning and Cooperation has basically the same function, except that--in addition to the former Secretariat of State--it is also responsible for organization and administration of technical assistance. It is required to prepare for government approval and the president's decision the general objectives of the plan (tiles grands options d'orientation"). 6. The planning functions of the Ninistry are divided by three direc- torates-(a) the Directorate for Planning, (b) the Directorate for Plan Fi- nancing and (c) the Directorate for Physical Planning. A fourth directorate for Scientific and Technical Affairs which is physically located outside the Ministry is attached to the Ministry as a matter of organizational and administrative convenience while the directorate of cooperation is concerned with the day-to-day management of technical assistance. In addition, there is the Bureau d'Etudes which, as will be explained below, plays a role in the planning process. The Planning Commissions and the Supreme Planning Council do not form part of the Ministry. - 3 - 7. Before describing the functions of the various directorates in the Ministry it is important to point out that many of the units which appear on the administrative chart are, in reality, either non-existent or too weak to have any real Impact. The principal problem is the shortage of profes- sional staff to activate these units, but even if the staff were available it is doubtful whether some of these units would have been useful. Indeed, with the rudimentary nature of economic planning being performed in Senegal, the Planning Ministry could operate far more effectively with a less elab- orate body whose composite units were better staffed and coordinated than it will be able to with the present cumbersome and poorly staffed organiza- tional structure. a. The Planning Directorate 8. The tasks and responsibilities of the Planning Directorate are varied, including such things as macro-economic analysis, preparation of four-year plans and their periodical adjustments (normally every two years), and supervision of their execution. The Directorate is also responsible for assessing human resources necessary for implementing the plan and for controlling plan execution. The latter function is vaguely defined and illusive; In the past, it has meant the publication of a progress report on capital expenditures, invariably two to three years in arrears. Thus the financial data available to the planners are so out of date (and, occa- sionally, so unreliable) as to be of little use. 9. Staffing of this important directorate is much below acceptable standards. At the time the mission was in the field the head of the Direc- torate was serving, as well, as Chief of the Division for Plan Elaboration. Further, there were only two more professionals working in each of the two other divisions of the Directorate -- Human Resources and Control of the Execution of the Plan. Most of these professionals lack planning experience. b. The Directorate for Plan Financing 10. The primary responsibility of this Directorate is the identifica- tion and mobilization of resources, both foreign and local, for financing projects included in the four-year plan. The method of mobilizing resources is usually limited to presenting the potential donor or lender with a list of projects for possible financing. In most cases, however, due to lack of indicated priorities by Senegal, the lender makes his own choice. The Directorate is also responsible for coordinating with the Ministry of Fi- nance the release of counterpart funds for foreign-financed projects. This coordination, however, does not appear to be very effective, and delays in- variably ensue causing problems for the execution of projects. c. The Directorate for Physical Planning ("Amenagement du Territoire") 11. This Directorate is in charge of elaborating objectives for physi- cal planning in the country. T'he Directorate, in cooperation with other - 4 - ministries, formulates policies affecting physical planning priorities of the plan. The primary objective of that effort is to strive for balanced growth in the various parts of the country, and to prevent further concen- tration of industries and development projects in the metropolitan area of Dakar. It is also involved in the efforts to stimulate rural migration from the overcrowded groundnut basin to the south and southeastern regions of Senegal. The role of the Directorate has recently received a new impetus with the introduction of regionalization policies. d. The Directorate for Scientific and Technical Affairs 12. Partly financed by a grant from UNESCO, this Directorate is re- sponsible for drafting Government policy on scientific affairs. It is understood that this Directorate has been attached to the Ministry as a matter of administrative convenience; it is not clear whether the functions of the Directorate have much bearing on the subject matter dealt with by the Planning Ministry. e. The Directorate of Cooperation 13. This Directorate is mainly concerned with the administration and day-to-day management of the very substantial foreign technical assistance (mainly from France) active in Senegal. It has only a limited planning function. f. Bureau d'Etudes 14. The Bureau is directly under the Minister of Planning. It is officially defined as "tune cellule de reflexion sur les problemes qui lui sont soumis par le Ministre." In essence the Bureau performs economic advisory functions for the Ministry. It also studies and clears legisla- tive and regulatory proposals submitted to it by government agencies on matters which fall within the jurisdiction of the Ministry. The Bureau consists of four professionals--a Senegalese and three French technical advisers-but will soon be reinforced by one or two Senegalese technicians. g. The Planning Commissions 15. The idea of the planning commissions, or the modernization commis- sions as they are called in France, is predicated on a set of institutions, each with its own operating principles, that are linked in such a way as to produce multiple contacts and a continuous dialogue among the several socio- economic groups of the nation. What is supposed to emerge from these con- tacts and this dialogue is an ever wider and deeper consensus on the politico- economic goals to be pursued. 16. The Planning Commissions in Senegal, as in France, are of two categories--vertical and horizontal. The vertical commissions correspond to branches of economic activity and they are seven in number: Rural devel- opment; Industry, power, and mines; Commerce, handicrafts, and tourism; - 5 - Health and social affairs; Infrastructure (transportation and telecommunica- tions); Urbanization; and Education. The commissions examine the project proposals which the operating ministries submit to them through the Ministry of Planning. These commissions, which are largely composed of government officials, as well as businessmen, are supposed to analyze the project proposal from the standpoint of its economic justification, cost, benefit, schedule of execution, financ:ing and priorities. Because of the rudimentary nature of many project proposals and the lack of expertise of the commissions themselves, it is doubtful whiether these commissions can perform a useful function. 17. The horizontal commissions are charged with synthesizing the in- formation furnished by the vetrtical commissions about a general problem- for instance, finance or regional development. There are five horizontal commissions: physical planning, finance, regionalization, research, and synthesis (general economy). The horizontal commissions are meant to be one of the channels, though riot the only one, through which the work of the vertical commissions is integrated. Thus, the Finance Commission examines provisions for the capital budget for the entire period of four years, tak- ing into consideration income and expenditures, including recurrent expend- itures, for on-going as well as new projects. The horizontal commissions have broad terms of reference including responsibility for the economic framework of the entire plan. Like the vertical commissions, the horizon- tal commissions suffer from the lack of expertise. h. Supreme Planning Council ("Conseil Superieur du Plan") 18. The Council is a policy-making body whose principle responsibili- ty is to set the general orientation and the global objectives of the plan prior to its formulation, to pay attention to matters affecting implementa- tion and to suggest improved measures toward that end. The Council is pre- sided over by the President of the Republic, and consists of the prime min- ister, the ministers and the regional governors. The Council is convened by the President, and in recent years has met twice--once for approval of the third plan and again for approval of the mid-term readjusted plan. Be- cause it meets so infrequently, the Council has contributed little to the problems of plan implementation. Consequently, there has been little con- cern with progress reporting on and follow-up of plan implementation. i. The Ministry of Finance 19. The Ministry of Finance is involved in the planning process through the budget, and the Directorate of Statistics: (a) the budget: The budget is divided into two parts--current and capital ("budget d'equipement"). Requests for the investment budget are submitted directly to the Director of the Budget from the technical ministries, although no global ceiling figure is given in advance to the ministries. Examination of the compati- bility between the requests of the ministries and the targets - 6 - of the plan and setting of project priorities thereafter is done jointly by the Directorate of the Budget and the Ministry of Planning. The Ministry of Finance also signs project agree- ments ("convention de financement") with bilateral donors and thus it becomes aware of the counterpart funds in local currency required. The technical ministries, on the other hand, are required to include recurrent expenditures in their requests for the current budget. (b) the Directorate of Statistics which has become a part of the Ministry of Finance since 1970, supplies the Planning Commis- sion with data and projections. j. Team of UN Experts 20. Realizing the shortage of Senegalese planners the Government has requested the UNDP to finance a team of foreign experts for a period of 5-1/2 years beginning mid-1972. The team was scheduled to be made up of six experts as follows: General Planning Economist (project manager) Industrial Economist Rural Economist Transport Economist Sectorial Planner (project evaluation) Sectorial Planner (project formulation). 21. In its request the Government identified the terms of reference of the team as: (i) assisting the central planning authority by establishing methods and procedures for sectorial and intersectorial analysis, sectorial and intersectorial programming (includ- ing the programming of technical assistance and progress control); (ii) studying, in collaboration with the Bureau of Organization and Methods, the reform in the organization of programming, the implementation of the plan and the methods for progress control; (iii) assisting in the implementation of the reforms approved by the Government; (iv) assisting in the establishment of the regional programming institutions responsible for formulating regional priori- ties derived from the national priorities, identifying and formulating sectorial projects, linking these projects in programs, coordinating national projects at the regional - 7 - level, intersectorial coordination at the regional level, coordinating, integrating and supervising operations at the local organization level and coordinating the overall imple- mentation of the program at the regional level; (v) assisting in the preparation of the Fourth Development Plan (July 1973-June 1977) bearing in mind that the process of re- gionalization of the planning function is to be completed during the period of the plan; (vi) preparing sectorial projects and assisting in the gradual establishment of the. regional and local programs within the framework of the. Fourth Plan and coordinating the imple- mentation of the prcjects at the regional and local levels; (vii) preparing the regional programs which, in conjunction with the national project.s, will be integrated to comprise the program of the Fifth Plan which is to begin in July 1977. 22. While the IBRD has indicated to the UNDP its support for the proj- ect, it has also indicated the need, which is now being reiterated, to include in the project a training program through which Senegalese nationals can be trained to take over and prepare Senegal's future development plans with min- imum assistance from outside. The project manager and a few of the experts have been working in Senegal since the middle of 1972. C. THE METHODOLOGY OF PLANNING a. General 23. The major characteristic of Senegalese planning is the great em- phasis placed on formal and procedural aspects of plan elaboration and ap- proval and the limited concern for project identification, preparation and implementation. To a large extent the planning methodology in Senegal is influenced by the French experience. There is, however, one substantial difference between the two systems. There are at least two sides to French planning. There is the general indicative planning exercise based on the work of the modernization comrmissions, and there is the compulsory aspect which affects the public sectcor, including the large nationalized industries. The indicative exercise is carried out by the various modernization commis- sions which are composed of representatives of economic groups as well as the Government. The investment programs of the public sector including the nationalized bodies are directly influenced by the Government. 24. In Senegal, the plan, save for the industrial sector, is a public sector investment program whic.h determines and guides the economic activities of the entire public sector. Moreover, the Senegalese planning commissions meet only during the preparation of the plan and, consequently, they cannot - 8 - be a useful tool for continuous planning throughout the period. More impor- tantly, their capability to assign sectorial priorities for the national plan is severely hampered by the varying quality of the project documents submitted to them, and by their inadequate staffing. 25. The preparation of the third (ongoing) plan followed certain pres- cribed procedures but failed to underline the questions involved in plan im- plementation. The absence of effective reporting and control mechanisms has recently been dramatized in the publication of a mid-term plan "readjustment". In the readjusted plan, planned investments over the four-year period have been reduced by 25 percent. The readjusted plan document, which extends over two volumes, has failed to indicate whether reduced investment was dictated by reduced revenues or limited absorptive capacity. Nor has the document indicated what bottlenecks or difficulties were encountered during the first two years of plan implementation and what measures are proposed to remedy the situation. The document offers, in effect, little current information on most ongoing projects. A vital feature of plan implementation is the proper control, follow-up and evaluation of the progress of projects and programs. 26. Control is essentially an integral part of good administrative prac- tice. Financial data on project implementation is necessary to determine how much has been spent and how much will be needed to complete ongoing projects under the next plan. Information is also necessary to avoid the danger of priorities determined by the plan being ignored during the implementation stage. In the past, for example, public works and education projects have received more funds than projects in the rural sector in spite of the fact that the latter category of projects received higher priority in the plan document than the former. b. Planning in the Technical Ministries 27. Until now, planning in the technical ministries has, in fact, been limited to the preparation of a list of projects, pre-projects and ideas of projects. Many of the projects themselves are based on rudimentary technical and economic analysis. The Ministries are subdivided into separate units ("services"), each one preparing its own list of projects with little regard to financial constraints, administrative capacity or sectorial priorities. The lists of the various services are then compiled into one general list of projects for the entire ministry and submitted to a working group for exam- ination. The nature of the list does not lend itself to a truly critical examination and indications are that the inclusion or exclusion in the final plan document of any project which appears on the list is subject more to ad hoc decision than to national or economic criteria. 28. The present method of decentralizing project preparation among the various units of the operating ministries puts considerable strain on the few planners likely to be found in Senegal. Indeed one must assume that the proliferation of project preparation centers: - 9 - (a) encourages the diffusion of scarce manpower--planners, economists, engineers, administrators and technicians-- in small units, only a few of which are presently capable of preparing a project on reasonable professional standards; (b) militates against the formulation of integrated programs within the individual ministries; (c) creates uncoordinated inter-departmental competition for resources which interferes with the determination of national priorities; (d) prevents the application of uniform procedures to planning and project preparation. Quite simply the method has not worked satisfactorily and requires serious revision. The report will address itself to this problem in section D. c. The Methodology of the Fourth Plan 28. The Directorate of Planning has prepared a set of six documents dealing with the methodology of planning for the fourth plan. The list of documents are as follows: Document No. 1 -- Les Orientations Generales du IVeme Plan; Document No. 2 -- La Methodologie et le Calendrier d'Elaboration du IVeme Plan; Document No. 3 -- Instructions Generales pour l'Elaboration du Dossier de Projet et de la Fiche Questionnaire de Projet; Document No. 4 -- Les Structures de Planification -- Instructions Generales; Document No. 5 - Le Dossier d'Operation; Document No. 6 -- Fiche Questionnaire de Projet. Stated summarily, Document No. 1 states the general orientation of the next plan and the sectorial priorities as indicated by the President of the Repub- lic. Document No. 2, which is perhaps the most important of the group, sets down the methods for preparing the macro-economic framework of the plan, the methodology for regional planning and the timetable of the various activities related to the preparation of the plan. Particularly useful is the table (see Annex I) which lists (a) the definition of the tasks to be performed, (b) the level of responsibility performing a given task, and (c) the expected date of execution. - 10 - 30. Documents Nos. 3, 5 and 6 deal with the methods of project prepara- tion, including the various forms to be used for this purpose. Document No. 4 lists the various planning commissions and their respective functions. On the whole, the methodology formulated in these documents has received more thought than the methodology formulated for the previous plan. The main concern is that the methodology has been to a very considerable extent the work of one directorate in the Ministry of Planning, which will be hard pressed to explain the methodology to the various planning units in the ministries in time to have them applied to the actual preparation of projects for the next plan. A more simplified effort for the short term might, thus, have reaped better results. 31. There are a few other comments on the methodology which should be made. The various tasks listed in the timetable of document No. 2 (Annex I in this report) culminate in the deliberations which will take place in the National Assembly in June 1973 for the adoption of the plan. It must be pointed out, however, that in addition to the fact that Senegal is already a few months behind schedule, the definition of the various tasks places considerable emphasis on the work to be done at the level of the technical ministries, where expertise is still in short supply. 32. Another point to be made is the great concern which the documents seem to place on the formal and procedural aspects of plan elaboration and the very little attention paid to the practical problems of plan implementa- tion. These problems receive so little attention that the usefulness of the entire planning exercise may, as in the past, be greatly impaired. It is significant that the documents fail to draw lessons from past experience and, hence, there exists the danger of stumbling anew into old pitfalls. 33. Another serious problem affecting the preparation of the next plan is the way the planners envisage the determination of the overall magnitude of investment. According to document No. 3 (page 7) the total investment figure for the next plan will be arrived at not on the basis of resources that are available or could be mobilized and technical and administrative capabili- ty but simply by "adding up" what are really roughly estimated costs provided by the project documents. Utilizing the same technique the planners expect to arrive at figures both for investments in each sector and region and for the size of employment that will be created. 34. This method of aggregating total investments as well as other eco- nomic indicators is unreliable if only because the figures supplied by most project documents are rudimentary at best. Thus, the probability of incorpo- rating much guesswork in the plan's macro-economic framework is greatly increased. d. Regionalization 35. The methodology of the next four-year plan will be influenced by the Government's decision to introduce regionalization as a means of dis- persing and decentralizing political, economic and administrative power on the one hand, and of mobilizing local support and resources on the other. The idea for regionalization stems from the heavy concentration of people and economic resources in one small region of the country, Cap Vert. In that region, which constitutesl 1.4 percent of the national territory, live 23 percent of the population, operate 80 percent of the industry and work 50 percent of government employees. Sixty percent of all salaried people live in this small area. 36. There are seven regions, including the small region of Cap Vert which is in effect Dakar and environs. In each region there is a Governor; his staff includes an "adjoint au developpement". In principle, the Governor represents in his region not only the President but also the various ministries. However, the technical ministries also have their own regional inspectors who have a split responsibility towards the Governor and towards their respective minis- tries. The adjoint au developpement has responsibilities for coordinating both the activities of the different ministries in the region and the local and locally-financed development projects with which the central government inspectors are not concerned. 37. Within each region, there are departments (27 in all Senegal), and the head of the department serves as "Prefet". Each Prefet has an "agent departemental de planification (ADP)" who is concerned with small projects financed locally. Within each department, there are districts ("arrondisse- ments"). At this level, the central government representative is the "Sous-Prefet". There are 87 districts. 38. A major program of administrative decentralization, using this structure but reinforcing it and changing it in some respects, has been drawn up with the assistance of a team of experts in organization and methods, fi- nanced by UNDP. A pilot operation to test out this program is being put into effect in the region of Thies, which is the region immediately to the east of Cap Vert. At the present, however, there is no intention of preparing a sep- arate plan for each region although the national plan is proposed to take into greater consideration regional needs. 39. While the idea of mobilizing support and resources for development at the local level is desirable the question arises whether the region has sufficient financial independence and technical capacity to undertake develop- ment projects without direct government subvention and technical assistance. It is necessary to distinguish between the political aspects of regionaliza- tion designed to involve the eatire population in political action at the grass-roots level, the administrative aspect intended to decentralize gov- ernment machinery and subsequently strengthen regional authorities, and the economic aspect seeking to mobilize local initiative in the development pro- cess. The whole scheme is certainly worthwhile to be considered seriously, provided (a) regionalization does not contribute to a sharp increase in the - 12 - administrative budget, (b) the central ministries improve their communica- tions with their field offices, and (c) there are enough officials to under- take the added responsibilities without having them diverted from other essen- tial activities. One need hardly emphasize the point that if regionalization results in proliferation of offices and staff disproportionate to what they might accomplish, the idea will be counter-productive. D. RECOMMENDATIONS 1. Preparation of the Fourth Plan a. Phasing of Plan Preparation 40. The current pace of the elaboration of the fourth plan raises doubts over the ability of the planning machinery to produce a viable economic plan for presentation to the National Assembly by June 1973. It is feared that in the absence of adequate preparation and proper economic studies the fourth plan will suffer from the same structural and methodological weaknesses which affected earlier plans; the plan may be hurriedly assembled into another project list ("catalogue des projects"), and a poor list at that. There is of course nothing inherently wrong with a list (or catalogue) provided pro- jects are well-prepared and are then ordered according to criteria of national priority and economic rationality. In order to avoid many of the structural and methodological short-comings of earlier plans and indeed of planning as a whole, we recommend that the methods and timing of plan elaboration be revised. 41. In the past the Government announced in general terms the priorities among the various sectors but the actual distribution of resources has not always followed the sector's assigned priority. Indeed the final weight of the sector in the plan itself has been determined largely by the lists of projects submitted by the ministries within that sector. A somewhat reverse order in the allocation of resources is recommended. Instead of determining the total investment after the various lists of projects have been compiled, the Government should: (a) decide in advance on the magnitude of the plan (measured by past performance plus anticipated growth in financial resources); (b) determine the quantitative order of priorities of the various sectors during the life span of the plan (allowing of course for later adjustments dictated by unforeseen circumstances); (c) set a ceiling on expenditures for each ministry, and hence a limit on the number of projects for presenta- tion to the Ministry of Planning by the technical ministries. Such a ceiling will encourage the ministries to be more deliberate and careful in the selec- tion of projects and in the determination of their priorities. 42. The next step will be the presentation of a plan document to the Supreme Planning Council and the National Assembly for approval. It is here that a major departure from existing practices is recommended. - 13 - 43. Rather than prepare a complete plan before the deadline in June 1973, the Government could submit to the National Assembly for approval a plan docu- ment (a plan frame) for the public sector which merely indicates the magnitude of investments, the estimates of finance, and the overall targets for the entire four-year period. Because of time constraints, however, the document will present only the projects for the first year of the plan, limiting invest- ment activities to ongoing projects as well as projects which have priority are well-prepared and appear to have a reasonable chance of execution during the first year of the plan. The Ministry of Planning and, indeed, the entire planning apparatus, could then devote their time and energy to the determina- tion of development strategy, formulating policy guidelines, elaborating sec- torial priorities and preparing projects for the remaining three years of the plan, namely, 1974/75-1976/77. This would give the Senegalese planners, with the help of the UNDP team of' experts, more time to complete this second part of the plan, which could be done by preparing projects for the whole of the remaining period of three years or for one year at a time. In view of man- power constraints the latter course would be preferable. In this exercise, which does not necessarily require a full-fledged annual plan, the priority of projects may be shifted, sectorial unevenness of development smoothed out, and changes in plan schedules made on the basis of actual experience and the present financial situation. Indeed the exercise allows for a more precise assessment of economic conditions for the coming year and a better appraisal of what can be accomplished not only in carrying out expenditure programs, but also in raising the resources required. While being prepared, the plan could serve as a coordinative force, bringing together information presently scattered amongst many agencies and enabling ministries to see what other ministries are doing. The adoption of the proposed exercise will obviate the need for the mid-term plan readjustment. 44. In terms of time schedule, the above proposal will afford both the Ministry of Planning and the operating ministries an extra year for preparing projects and for improving tide quality of the plan in general. The additional time will also permit the UN'DP team of experts to become familiar with the prob- lems at hand and to initiate a training program that will involve Senegalese more directly in plan preparation. 45. The implementation of these recommendations would require changes in other aspects of the planning process. These changes refer to (a) setting of planning priorities, (b) submission of projects on a continuous basis, and (c) planning at the ministeriLal level. b. Setting of Priorities 46. In Senegal, as is probably the case in many other developing coun- tries, a plan of projects ("plan de projets", "catalogue des projets") is justified, by lack of firm commitment by foreign donors regarding the volume of aid they will provide duri'ng the life time of the plan. It is argued that with the financial sources always uncertain, it would serve little purpose to have the projects listed in a stringent order of priorities. This argument - 14 - further suggests that in any case, the donor has his own preferences for proj- ects, regardless of the country's stated priorities, even if such priorities should be firmly established. While there is some truth to this argument it ignores the possibility that at least in some cases the donors dictate their own choices only because the recipient country fails to do so. The World Bank's experience with aid coordination groups reaffirms the hypothesis that if the country demonstrated a firmer commitment toward its own priorities the donors thenselves would tend to exercise a lesser degree of arbitrariness in the choice of projects. The Government of Senegal will be well-advised to assert its priorities to the donor countries by making the plan a public sector investment program which determines very clearly priorities according to criteria of national goals, economic rationality and technical feasibility. The country stands to lose much by allowing the donors to decide, in effect, what they will finance. c. Submissions of Project Proposals on a Continuous Basis 47. One of the weaknesses of the planning process in Senegal stems from the quadrennial exercise of project preparation. It would seem that, once the plan had been approved, preparation of further new projects ceases. Senegal ought to strive to achieve continuing planning and that means that project proposals would be submitted in two phases. The first one would be a general proposal describing the project with a minimum of detail and based on data and estimates derived from preliminary economic and technical invest- igation and analysis. On the basis of more detailed investigation and analysis the second phase of the proposal would be submitted, containing detailed esti- mates of work and costs involved, and of economic benefits. The advantage of this procedure would be to enable the Ministry of Planning, at a fairly early stage, to indicate to the government agency concerned whether further work on the preparation of the project is desirable or not. This would save time, staff and frustration, and avoid long negotiations on fully prepared but un- attractive projects. A project proposal form for phase one is supplied (Annex II) while the more elaborate project form prepared by the Directorate of Planning (document No. 6) could be used for Phase II. For the Ministry that means a year-round rather than cyclical activity. The role of the plan- ning commissions, which now operate during the plan preparation stage only, will be required to be reexamined and the number of the commissions could be drastically reduced. d. Project Preparation and Planning by the Technical Ministries 48. As pointed out above one of the major weaknesses in the planning exercise thus far has been the poor quality of project preparation in the technical ministries. A major improvement in this area is a pre-condition for subsequent improvement in overall planning. Moreover, if project prepa- ration is to be a continuous rather than a cyclical exercise, the technical ministries will have to staff, activate and revitalize their planning bureaus, which to date have existed largely on organizational charts only. These bureaus should bring together all the available technical talent and expertise - 15 - in project preparation now (lispersed in the various services. In order to broaden their authority within the ministries, each of these bureaus should preferably be placed directly under the minister. 49. Each bureau shouldl be made responsible for preparing projects for an entire ministry and, where appropriate, for an entire sector. The bureau would function parallel to the Directorate of Planning, and a greater coopera- tion and coordination between the two should be established. The present method which permits individual units ("services") within each technical minis- try to propose their own projects (and ideas of projects) will thus be super- seded by a more centralized apparatus that will make a more efficient utiliza- tion not only of scarce technical manpower available in the ministry but also of future technical assistarice both for operational and training purposes. 50. The strengthening and activating of planning bureaus in the technical ministries will permit, at some time in the future, the introduction of sec- torial planning. At present, sectorial planning in any form in Senegal is com- pletely lacking and it would be unrealistic, due to manpower and data con- straints, to initiate such exercise on a wide scale in time to contribute to the formulation of the fourth plan. It is recommended, however, that an experiment in sectorial planning be initiated in the rural sector, for the following reasons: (a) The rural sector hbas been designated by the President of the Republic as the highest priority sector in the next four-year plan; (b) The sector affects a very high percentage of the population; (c) Many projects within the sector will support and reinforce programs of regionalization and community development. 51. The introduction of sectorial planning will not only require a more efficient planning bureau than the one currently in existence in the Ministry of Rural Development, but will also require technical assistance from outside. As a preliminary step it is recommended that one member of the UN team of experts on planning be assigned to the Itinistry of Rural Development to help the Ministry's planners to undertake sectorial planning. It is also recommended that other members of the UN team, each in his specialized field, should pay considerable attention to the preparation of projects in the ministries rather than limit their activities to reviewing such projects after they have been prepared. - 16 - 2. The Control of Plan Implementation 52. Significantly enough the planning process in Senegal as summarized in Annex I terminates in the approval of the plan. In the six methodological documents, referred to earlier, which have been prepared in anticipation of the fourth plan, there is little of significance on the actual implementation of the plan or later follow-up. The Ministry of Planning and Cooperation was assigned the responsibility for "control over the execution of the plan" with- out the necessary authority to go with it. There is not a single body in the country which maintains up-to-date information on the state of implementation. Information provided by the Ministry is thus out of date and very incompiete. It provides little clue as to what is actually happening. One reason for this is the inadequate system of control of plan implementation. It is recom- mended that this function ought to be given high priority among the tasks of the Ministry of Planning. 53. Planing involves not only the formulation of a program for the orderly solution of a problem or attainment of an objective, but also its implementation and its coordination with other interrelated programs. However, all plans, regardless of how carefully they are prepared, are subject during execution to delays, changes, bottlenecks, and other impediments frequently not anticipated by the planners. Hence it is essential in the planning process to be always currently informed of the progress being made in the execution of the plan and in the achievement of its objectives. This awareness can be maintained by a continuous reporting program involving the collection of the pertinent facts and figures which reveal progress as well as the impediments to progress and their causes. Then reasonable and effective measures to re- move such obstacles can be adopted to speed the rate of progress in the ful- fillment of plans for development. 54. The purpose of the progress reports is to provide the Ministry of Planning as well as the operating ministries with information on the following points during the implementation of the project: (a) Physical work accomplished by quarterly period; (b) Financial expenditures during period; (c) Comparisons of actual physical progress and financial expenditures with the original schedules; (d) Actual or contemplated changes in the original plan of operation which require prior approval of the res- ponsible authorities; (e) Information about important occurrences, changes or conditions which affect progress schedules or cost estimates of the project; - 17 - (f) Difficulties or delays experienced or expected and the measures to be taken for correction; (g) Delays in delivery of major items of equipment occurred or likely to occur and tlhe effect of such delays on the project; (h) Any changes in key personnel and consultants. 55. The regular flow, anid subsequent analysis, of progress reports require that the Division for Control of Plan Execution in the Directorate of Planning be strengthened by adding additional professional manpower to its roster (see Para. 57 below). The responsibilities of the Division should be clearly defined and should include: (a) The collecting and :interpreting of all necessary, current data which could be used in measuring the rate of progress of such projects and in each sector of activity in national development plans; (b) The providing of facts and figures and their interpreta- tion, including the designing of clear, simple yet ade- quately comprehensive tables and forms as a means of securing the necessary statistical and other required information; (c) Indicating shortcomings arising from unanticipated factors as revealed by changed conditions either at home or abroad. 3. The Directorate of Plannini 56. The Directorate of P:Lanning is the unit in the Ministry of Planning and Cooporation most directly :Lnvolved in the preparation of the economic plan and yet it is the least adequately staffed in the Ministry. Converting planning from a quadrennial to a continuous process, and indeed making planning a more meaningful activity calls for redefining the Directorate's responsibili- ties and strengthening of its staff. In terms of responsibilities the Direc- torate should be placed in charge of improving the selection and formulation of projects in the light of established priorities, reviewing the technical, economic and social findings and recommendations of prepared projects with a view to stimulate appropriate follow-up investment action, draft terms of reference, both for internal study and for guiding consulting firms, which might be used by either the Directorate itself or by individual technical ministries, and preparing a program of pre-investment studies, including the necessary groundwork for submission of a country program to the UNDP. The Directorate ought also to initiate methods for identifying the inter-rela- tionships between projects for the purpose of establishing a coherent and effective sectorial program with maximum impact on development. - 18 - 57. The staffing situation of the Directorate is the most serious con- straint on its operation. Although the arrival of a team of experts financed by UNDP (which was not yet fully staffed in mid-1973 a year after starting its operations) will hopefully alleviate the problem to some degree, a long-term solution must be sought. This would require that more Senegalese be trained as planners. It is necessary for the Ministry of Planning to take initiative in recruiting eight to ten graduates of the School of Applied Economics (ENEA) 1/, and placing them at the Directorate of Planning and at the Bureau d'Etudes as trainees under the UNDP team and the expatriate technical assist- ance personnel, respectively. If only four or five of those recruited prove suitable, the Secretariate of Planning would have made a major step toward establishing a professional Senegalese "cadre". Further training of those individuals, and possibly others to be recruited in subsequent years, at the African Institute for Economic Development or overseas will further strengthen the Senegalese staff at the Secretariate. Genuine institution-building in planning cannot be attained solely with foreign expertise, and planning with- out adequate institutions will not be effective. 58. Strengthening of the Directorate of Planning could be further en- hanced by integrating the staff of the Bureau d'Etudes with the Directorate. It seems only logical that the Bureau d'Etudes, which is now responsible for conducting various economic studies and for examining project proposals sub- mitted by the Ministries, by and large independently of the Directorate of Planning, become an integral part of that Directorate. The present shortage of Senegalese planners, the relatively small size of the country as well as of the development funds involved, and the nature of the development effort (plan of projects), make it imperative that every effort be made to conser.ve scarce professional manpower. Senegal is precisely at a stage of development where greater concentration of efforts would seem to be the optimal course of action. This also calls attention to the need to seriously reexamine the role of the Planning Commission in the planning exercise. Constraints on manpower and time might dictate their abolition. For the same reasons, and in order to streamline the planning organization in the country, it might be necessary to abolish most of the units in the Secretariate of Planning, par- ticularly on the bureau level, which now largely exist on the organization chart only. Greater specialization and division of labor within the Secret- ariate should be encouraged only when trained personnel become available in the future and when development planning becomes both more integrated and more comprehensive. 1/ There are approximately 25 students who graduate annually from the school, many of whom "drift" into non-economic posts in the bureaucracy. ANNEXE I TACHES DE PLANIFICATION - DEFINITION - NITVEAUX DE RESPONSABILITE DATES DIACHEVEMENI Definition des taches de Niveaux de Echeance preparation du Plan responsabilite de dates Definition des orientations generalei3 Presidence de la R6publique D'efinition de la methode et du calen- Secretariat d'Etat Fevrier 1972 drier dl'elaboration dui Plan, constitu- au Plan tion des groupes techniques de Plani- fication Instructions aux structures de it plarnification Etudes economiques g6n6rales Groupe Etudes econo- Avril 1972 evolution economique, projections miques et planification globales generales Elaboration des projets Groupes techniques Aout 1972 Point sur 1'ex6cution projets3eme sectoriels Plan Etudes des resures de politique economique Determination des enveloppes Groupe Etudes economiques Aouat 1972 financieres et planification generales Definition des criteres de selection des projets Selection des projets Etude de Groupes techniques (1 a 10) Octobre 1972 coherence Rapports de synthese des groupes Noveubre 1972 techniques (1 a 9) Premiers rapports de Plans national Groupes Etudes economiques Decembre 1972 et r6gionaux et planification gen6rales Etude et avis sur les Rapports d-1 D6partements techniques Fevrier 1973 Plan Commissions Deuxiemes rapports de synthese sur Commission de synthese et Avril 1973 le plan national et les plans de 1le'conomie gen6rale re'gionaux Discussion et adoption d6finitive Instances superieures de Juin 1973 du Plan la Nation Sources: R6publique du S6n6gal, Secretariat d'Etat aupres du Premier Miinistre Charge du Plan. la Mgthodologie et; le Calendrier d'Elaboration du IV6me Plan. 1972. ANNEX II Page 1 Project Proposal Form 1. Name of the Project: 2. Location of Project (if necessary attach map): 3. Department/Agency responsible for the preparation and/or execution of the project: 4. Budget/Classification number: Field : Sector : Sub-Sector : Program : Project Note: If the project consists of a number of subprojects (series of schools in different locations, a number of feeder roads in an area, etc.) these should be located separately here: Sub-project number : Location There is no need to submit separate project proposal forms for sub-projects. 5. Description of the project: (a) Present situation before and without the project; (for a transport project, this would give a brief description of the existing transport system in the area where the project is located; for an industrial project it would refer to demand and present supply of the product; availability of raw materials, employment situation in the chosen location; etc.). (b) Purpose of the project: (what output of goods or services is projected as a result of its implementation; will the project eliminate existing bottlenecks; relation to other projects of the sector pro- gram, and to other projects generally; the regional significance). (c) Type of work: (what physical activities will be performed, for example the surfacing and/or widening of a road, construction of a particular type of building, etc.). ANNEX II Page 2 (d) Timing of the project: (as projects will in future come in for screening by the Ministry of Planning throughout the year, there must be a reference here to the desirability of start and com- pletion at a specified time; the relation to other projects and their timing should be mentioned). (e) Benefits and cost estimates for the project: (this should state the costs as total capital expenditures, foreign exchange component and the rate of return, if ap- propriate; requested here should be specified to the sub- project level). (f) Need to obtain supplies of equipment and materials from specified foreign source (only when existing equipment re- quires new facility to be of same make). 6. Time required for implementation of the project, running-in time until full capacity use is expected to be reached: 7. Estimated annual recurring expenditure after completion (in '000 CFA): Local currency Foreign exchange Total 8. Describe the status of preparation of the project (feasibility study must be completed and main conclusion summarized, other surveys to be undertaken or under way, required engineering and design work). 9. Status of consultation with other departments/agencies having a direct interest in the project. Attach as annexes their comments on the proposed project, and give a summary state- ment here. 10. Government instructions, enactments or legislation required for the effective implementation of the project. 11. Staff required for the implementation of the project. Their number and qualifications and the time for which they must be committed. Will the staff be taken from the Department, or will there be work contracted out? Foreign consultants to be used? If so, at what estimated cost? ANNEX II Page 3 12. Employment effect cf the completed project; specify skilled labor requirement for operating and maintaining the project after completion. 13. Describe organizational requirements for effective implementation of the project: staff of the department/agency to be committed to implementation of this project; present availability/recruitment; foreign technical/managerial assistance for implementation; lines of communication between project execution staff and responsible department, local or regional government, etc.; responsibilities and authority of project director. Office Address (Signature of responsible office Date of sponsoring Department/Agency)