25007 September 2002 The Next ^Mcent AnEvaluatfin oGtffhe Aga,1 Khan Rurad Support Progm, Pakistan ~ 4 ø OPERATIONS EVALUATION DEPARTMENT ENHANCING DEVELOPMENT EFFECTIVENESS THROUGH EXCELLENCE ;*,iNDEPENDENCE IN EVALUATION The Operations Evaluation Departtient (OED) is an independent unit within the World Bank; it reports directly to the Bank's Board of Executive I "mors. OED assesses what works, and what does not; how a borrower plans to run and maintain a project; and the lasting contribution of the Bank to a country's overall development. The goals of evaluation are to learn from experience, to provide an objective basis for assessing the results of the Bank's work, and to provide accountability in the achievement of its objectives. It also improves Bank work by identifying and disseminating the lessons learned from experience and by framing recommendations drawn from evaluation findings. WORLD BANK OPERATIONS EVALUATION DEPARTMENT The Next Ascent An Evaluation of the Aga Khan Rural Support Program, Pakistan 2002 THE WORLD BANK http://www.worldbank.org/oed Washington, D.C. @ 2002 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street, NW Washington, DC 20433 All rights reserved. Manufactured in the United States of America First Printing September 2002 1 2 3 4 03 02 The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed here are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Board of Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank cannot guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denomina- tions, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply on the part of the World Bank any judgment of the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Rights and Permissions The material in this work is copyrighted. No part of this work may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or inclusion in any information storage and retrieval system, without the prior written permission of the World Bank. The World Bank encourages dissemination of its work and will normally grant permission promptly. For permission to photocopy or reprint, please send a request with complete information to the Copyright Clearance Center, Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, USA, telephone 978-750-8400, fax 978-750-4470, www.copyright.com. All other queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to the Office of the Publisher, World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA, fax 202-522-2422, e-mail pubrights@worldbank.org. Cover photo: Courtesy of the Aga Khan Foundation/Jean-Luc Ray. Picture taken in 2000 of members of the Sost Women's Organization gathering fodder on land they were just beginning to cultivate in 1988. Although it turned out to have soil that was too poor for fruit trees (which they subsequently moved to better, sloping land), they continue to grow poplar and willow trees for fodder as well as alfalfa on this Women's Organization common land. ISBN 0-8213-4979-1 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data has been applied for. Printed on Recycled Paper Contents v Acknowledgments vii Foreword, Prefacio, Avant-Propos xi Executive Summary, Resumen, R6sume Analytique xxix Abbreviations and Acronyms 1 1. Introduction 1 AKRSP Program Objectives 2 Methods 3 Findings of Previous Evaluations 5 2. 'Overall Program Assessment 5 Relevance 7 Efficacy 8 Efficiency 13 Institutional Impact 17 Sustainability 19 3. Community Organizations 19 Relevance 21 Efficacy 23 Efficiency 25 4. Programs 25 Microfinance 28 Productive Physical Infrastructure 30 Natural Resource Management 33 Marketing and Enterprise Development 37 5. Future Directions 37 The Mission Is Valid, the Direction Needs to Change 41 Future Strategy-Community Organizations iii The Next Ascent: An Evaluation of the Aga Khan Rural Support Program, Pakistan Annexes 47 Annex A. AKRSP Skills Seeding 49 Annex B. Responsiveness to Earlier OED Recommendations 51 Annex C. AKRSP Cost Comparators 55 Annex D. AKRSP Timeline 59 Annex E. Institutional Survey 63 Annex F. Villages Visited 65 Annex G. Computation of Subsidy Dependence Index for the Microfinance Operations of the AKRSP 67 Annex H. AKRSP Economic Analysis 73 Annex I. The Karakoram Agricultural Research Institute for the Northern Areas (KARINA) 75 Annex J. Statistical Tables 99 Annex K. Organizational Charts 101 Annex L. Main Programs 123 Annex M. Recent Donor Program Evaluations of the AKRSP: A Summary of Main Conclusions 129 Endnotes 137 References Boxes 2 Box 1.1. AKRSP Operations and Their Institutional Setting 6 Box 2.1. Unique Political Status of the Northern Areas 44 Box 5.1. The Cascading Impact of a New Vision Tables 27 Table 4.1. Efficiency Comparisons 32 Table 4.2. Performance in NRM: Strengths and Weaknesses Figures 11 Figure 2.1. Expenditure Categories as a Percentage of Total 38 Figure 5.1. Future Share of Development Capacity 45 Figure 5.2. Pakistan: The Aga Khan Rural Support Program iv Acknowledgments his report, and the mission on which it Helen Phillip provided administrative support was based, could not have been com- and assistance with graphics. Oliver Rajakaruna pleted without the exceptional support also provided assistance with graphics. Andrew provided by the Aga Khan Foundation and the Foster (consultant, Brown University) provided Aga Khan Rural Support Program (AKRSP). The analysis of the socio-economic data. The team arrangements for the mission in the field were consisted of: Ridley Nelson (team leader), Julian excellent. Moreover, subsequent to the mission, Blackwood (consultant), Maliha Hussein (con- the AKRSP has been unstinting in its provision sultant), Sarah Ladbury (consultant), Masaharu of further data and analysis related to elements Shimizu, Roger Slade (consultant), and Rashed of the economic analysis. The very useful input Ul Qayyum. John Heath was also a team mem- of the AKRSP Board and the Donor Liaison ber during the preparation phase. Group is also acknowledged. We would like to This report was published as part of the thank the teams in the Core Office, in each OEDPK Outreach and Dissemination program by region, and in the Field Management Units, as a team under the direction of Elizabeth Campbell- well as the helicopter pilots. Thanks are due to Pag6 (Task Manager), including Caroline McEuen the Peer Review Group, consisting of, from out- (Editor) and Juicy Qureishi-Huq (Dissemination side the Bank, Jane Pratt from the Mountain Coordinator). Institute, John Cool (consultant), and J.D. Von Pischke (consultant); and, from inside the Bank, Kathryn McPhail, David Marsden, Anis Dani, Director-General, Operations Evaluation: RobertPicciotto and Richard Rosenberg from the Consultative Director, Operations Evaluation Department: GregoryK Ingram Group to Assist the Poorest (CGAP). William Manager, Sector and Thematic Evaluation: Alain Barbu Hurlbut and Caroline McEuen edited the report. Task Manager: Ridley Nelson V FOREWORD PREFACIO AVANT- PROPOS This is the fourth independ- Ésta es la cuarta evaluación Ce rapport constitue la qua- ent evaluation by the World independiente que el Departa- trième évaluation indépen- Bank's Operations Evaluation mento de Evaluación de Operaciones dante du Programme d'appui rural Aga Department of the Aga Khan Rural del Banco Mundial realiza sobre el Khan (PARAK) dans le nord du Pakis- Support Program (AKRSP) in north- Programa Aga Khan de apoyo al sec- tan, réalisée par le Département ern Pakistan. Requested and funded tor rural (AKRSP, por su sigla en d'évaluation des opérations de la Ban- by the Aga Khan Foundation (AKF) inglés) en el Pakistán septentrional. que mondiale. Commissionnée et and some of its co-donors, the eval- La evaluacién, solicitada y financiada financée par la Fondation Aga Khan uation was undertaken to assist the por la Fundacién Aga Khan y algunos (FAK) et certains de ses co-donateurs, AKRSP in shifting its strategy to de sus codonantes, se Ilevó a cabo l'évaluation a été entreprise dans le accommodate a changing environ- con el fin de ayudar al AKRSP a aco- but d'aider le PARAK à réorienter sa ment and new challenges. It looked modar su estrategia a las nuevas cir- stratégie afin d'accommoder un envi- at both the period since the last, cunstancias y desafios. Se consideró ronnement en mutation et de nouvel- 1995 evaluation and the full period tanto el periodo posterior a la última les réalités. Il couvre non seulement since program initiation in 1982. evaluación, en 1995, como todo el la période depuis l'évaluation précé- Now in its nineteenth year, the tiempo transcurrido desde la inicia- dente de 1995, mais aussi toute la program has spawned a number ción del programa, en 1982. période écoulée depuis le lancement of similar programs both within El programa, que cuenta ya con du programme en 1982. Pakistan and elsewhere. This eval- 19 años, ha generado una serie de Maintenant dans sa dix-neu- uation offers not only the AKF iniciativas semejantes, tanto dentro vième année, le programme donne and the AKRSP, but also the de Pakistán como en otros paises. naissance à.d'autres programmes global rural development commu- Esta evaluación ofrece, no sôlo a la similaires tant au Pakistan nity, including the World Bank, an Fundaciôn Aga Khan y al AKRSP qu'ailleurs. La présente évaluation opportunity to learn from an sino también a las instituciones de offre non seulement à la FAK et au innovative and successful pro- todo el mundo interesadas en el PARAK, mais aussi à toute la com- gram that now covers about 90 desarrollo rural, incluido el Banco munauté de développement rural, y percent of the households in the Mundial, una oportunidad dé compris la Banque mondiale, area it serves. aprender de un programa innova- l'occasion de tirer des leçons d'un Some of the lessons from this dor y fructífero, que abarca ahora programme novateur réussi qui experience have broad relevance más del 90% de los hogares de la couvre aujourd'hui 90 % environ for the rural development zona donde se está Ilevando a des ménages dans la région community: cabo. desservie. • In rural areas, broad and sus- Algunas de las enseianzas de Certaines leçons tirées de cette tained gains in economic and esta experiencia son muy valiosas expérience présentent un grand social welfare must be based para todos los interesados en el intérêt pour la communauté de on stable increases in output. desarrollo rural: développement rural. Increased output requires that • En las zonas rurales, los progre- • Dans les zones rurales, les appropriate technology be sos amplios y sostenidos ciel grands gains concernant le bien- available that yields relatively bienestar econômico y social être économique et social doi- quick returns. deben estar basados en aumen- vent être basés sur un " The program has pursued a tos estables de la producciôn. accroissement stable du rende- high input/high output strategy Para aumentar la producciôn se ment. Ce rendement accru exige that has exploited complemen- requieren tecnologias adecuadas qu'une technologie appropriée vii The Next Ascent: An Evaluation of the Aga Khan Rural Support Program, Pakistan tarities among the pro- que permitan conseguir soit disponible et engen- gram components and rendimientos relativa- dre un retour sur l'inves- efficiently used the mente rápidos. tissement relativement region's scarce commu- •dEl programa ha adoptado immédiat. nity facilitation and pro- una estrategia de altos Le programme a pour- gram management skills. insumos y producciôn suivi une stratégie de Expansion (scaling up) elevada, que ha aprove- hauts intrants/hauts ren- is a slow process even chado las complementa- dements qui exploite les with skilled facilitators, as there riedades entre los componentes complémentarités des compo- are few economies of scale. y ha utilizado con eficiencia la sants du programme et utilise However, expansion by graft- escasa capacidad de facilitaciôn efficacement les rares compéten- ing new programs into loca- comunitaria y gestión de progra- ces de facilitation communautai- tions with similar circumstances mas de la región. res et de gestion du programme offers substantial leverage. • La expansión (reproducción en dans la région. • Partnerships-between gov- escala superior) es un proceso • L'expansion (augmentation gra- ernment, civil society, NGOs, lento aun cuando se disponga de duelle) est un processus lent and the private sector-with personal experimentado, ya que même avec l'aide de facilitateurs actionable and measurable hay pocas economias de escala. qualifiés, car les économies commitments should be for- No obstante, la expansión d'échelle sont peu nombreuses. mally agreed at the start of a basada en la introducción de Cependant, l'expansion par program to ensure clarity of nuevos programas en lugares greffe de nouveaux programmes roles and to create incentives con circunstancias semejantes dans des contextes similaires a for performance. puede tener un considerable de grands avantages. • Eventual exit at the community efecto multiplicador. • Les partenariats - entre le gou- level should be a phased • Las asociaciones --entre el gob- vernement, la société civile, les process of increasingly differ- ierno, la sociedad civil, las ONG y ONG et le secteur privé - entiated but diminishing com- el sector privado- con compro- accompagnés d'engagements munity support tailored to, and misos aplicables y cuantificables donnant droit d'action et de partly by, each community, deberían aprobarse por consenso mesure devraient être conclus with whom such strategies al comienzo del programa, para dès le début d'un programme should be agreed up front. garantizar la claridad de funciones afin d'assurer la définition claire e incentivar el desempeño. des rôles et de créer des incita- This evaluation was largely • La estrategia de salida deberia tions à la performance. completed before September 11, ser un proceso gradual de apoyo • Le désengagement éventuel au 2001. Clearly the subsequent comunitario cada vez más dife- niveau communautaire devrait events will have a substantial renciado pero decreciente, de être un processus échelonné de impact on the Northern Areas and acuerdo con las necesidades de l'appui communautaire de plus Chitral, which have social and cada comunidad, con la que en plus différencié mais décli- economic similarities to neighbor- deberían aprobarse inicialmente nant adapté à, et en partie par, ing Afghanistan, and some of the dichas medidas. chaque communauté avec laque- findings here may be relevant to lle ces stratégies ont été conve- the reconstruction of Afghanistan. Esta consulta se terminó en nues au départ. At least temporarily, this region buena parte antes del 11 de sep- may experience increased local tiembre de 2001. Obviamente, los Le DEO a consulté toutes les sensitivity to sectarian issues, acontecimientos posteriores tendrán parties prenantes clés et a visité un some initial diversion of govern- notable repercusión en las zonas village échantillon. Les points de ment attention from development septentrionales y el distrito de Chi- vue, y compris les avis dissidents, issues to security, and a signifi- tral, que presentan semejanzas ont été minutieusement considérés. cant increase in donor support for sociales y econômicas con el vecino Les opinions exprimées dans le pré- viii Foreword Pakistan. This does not Afganistán, y algunas de las sent rapport ne reflétent pas substantially change the conclusiones aquí ofrecidas nécessairement les points de direction of the findings pueden ser de interés para vue de la FAK, du PARAK ou and recommendations, but la reconstrucción de Afganis- d'autres organismes de the climate of uncertainty tán. Al menos temporal- donateurs, du gouvernement may call for greater flexibil- mente, esta región puede pakistanais ou de la Banque ity regarding the rate of the experimentar una mayor mondiale. shift. This does not neces- sensibilidad local a las cues- sarily mean a slow-down. Oppor- tiones sectarias, cierto abandono tunities may be created that gubernamental de las cuestiones should be seized quickly, and it del desarrollo en aras de la seguri- will be essential to remain in dad, y un aumento significativo del touch with the needs of the apoyo de los donantes a Pakistán. clients in the villages, particularly Ello no cambia sustancialmente la the needs of the various groups dirección de las conclusiones y within villages and within com- recomendaciones, pero el clima de munity organizations. incertidumbre puede requerir OED consulted with all the key mayor flexibilidad sobre el ritmo stakeholders and visited a sample del cambio. Todo esto no significa of villages. Their views, including necesariamente una desaceleración. those in dissent, were carefully Pueden surgir oportunidades que considered. The opinions deberían aprovecharse de inme- expressed in this report do not diato, y será fundamental permane- necessarily represent the views of cer en contacto con las necesidades the AKF, the AKRSP, the other de los clientes en las aldeas, en par- donor agencies, the government ticular con las necesidades de los of Pakistan, or the World Bank. distintos grupos dentro de las aldeas y dentro de la organización comunitaria. El DEO ha consultado a todas las principales partes interesadas y ha visitado una muestra de aldeas. Se tuvieron muy en cuenta sus opi- niones, aun cuando se mostraron en desacuerdo. Las opiniones reco- gidas en este informe no represen- tan necesariamente las de la Fundación Aga Khan, el AKRSP, los otros organismos donantes, el gob- ierno de Pakistán o el Banco Mundial. Robert Picciotto Director-General, Operations Evaluation ix EXECUTIVE RESUMEN RESUME SUMMARY - i ANALYTIQUE The Aga Khan Rural Support El Programa Aga Khan de Le Programme d'appui rural Program (AKRSP), like many apoyo al sector rural (AKRSP, Aga Khan (PARAK), comme a traveler before them in these high por su sigla en inglés), como muchos tant d'autres avant lui dans ces chaî- mountains, has reached a summit, otros viajeros que le precedieron en nes montagneuses, n'a atteint un som- only ta see a greater peak ahead. estas altas montaias, ha coronado met que pour en apercevoir un autre For 18 years the AKRSP has helped una cima, para encontrarse con una plus grand devant lui. Depuis 18 ans, community groups throughout the cumbre todavia más-alta. Desde hace le PARAK aide les groupements com- Northern Areas and Chitral District 18 años, el AKRSP ayuda a los grupos munautaires des zones du Nord et du of Pakistan in a development effort comunitarios de todas las zonas sep- district Chitral au Pakistan dans leur that has become a model for rural tentrionales y del distrito de Chitral effort de développement qui est programs throughout the country (ZSC), en Pakistan, en una iniciativa devenu un exemple de programme and across the globe. But donor de desarrollo que se ha convertido en rural dans tout le pays et dans le fatigue is now raising the prospect modelo para programas rurales en el monde entier. Mais la fatigue des of a leaner future, community and pais y en todo el mundo. Pero la fatiga organismes donateurs laisse à penser area development is becoming more de los donantes esté lievando ahora a que l'avenir sera plus difficile ; en complex, maintaining incentives for plantearse la perspectiva de un futuro effet, le développement zonal et com- participation faces challenges, and menos ambicioso, el desarrollo de las munautaire devient de plus en plus the poorer areas and people the comunidades y regiones esté adqui- complexe, et le maintien des incita- AKRSP is now focusing on need riendo mayor complejidad, el manteni- tions à la participation pose des défis; even greater creative effort to miento de incentivos para la ainsi, les zones pauvres et populations achieve success. As a new donor participación se encuentra con impor- ciblées par le PARAK devront bénéfi- funding cycle approaches, the tantes problemas y las zonas y perso- cier de plus grands efforts novateurs AKRSP is gauging the path of its nas más pobres en que el AKRSP esté pour réussir. Alors que les donateurs next ascent, taking stock of its many concentrando ahora su atencién nece- entrent dans un nouveau cycle de accomplishments, and seeking to sitan un esfuerzo todavia más crea- financement, le PARAK explore le define its future relationship with all tivo. Al acercarse un nuevo ciclo de chemin à suivre pour sa prochaine of its stakeholders. This evaluation, financiamiento de los donantes, el ascension, tout en faisant le bilan de the fourth commissioned since 1986 AKRSP esté tratando de determinar el ses nombreuses activités et en cher- from the Operations Evaluation itinerario de su próxima escalada, chant à définir ses futures relations Department (OED) of the World tomar nota de sus numerosos logros y avec toutes ses parties prenantes. La Bank, is intended ta assist that aclarar su relación futura con todas présente évaluation (la quatrième process. las partes interesadas. Esta evalua- commissionnée depuis 1986 par le The evaluation assesses the cién, la cuarta solicitada desde 1986 Département de l'évaluation des opé- development outcome of both the al Departamento de Evaluación de rations (DEO) de la Banque mondiale, full 18-year life of the AKRSP and Operaciones (DEO) del Banco Mun- a pour but de faciliter ce processus. the 5-year period since the last dial, tiene como objetivo contribuir a L'évaluation fait le bilan des evaluation. It focuses on four pro- ese proceso. résultats du développement à la fois gram components: community En esta evaluaciôn se determi- pendant les 18 années de durée de organizations, infrastructure nan los resultados en términos de vie du PARAK et la période de 5 development, natural resource desarrollo tanto de los 18 años de ans qui s'est écoulée depuis l'éva- management, and microfinance. vida del AKRSP como de los cinco luation précédente. Elle est centrée The criteria that have been used años transcurridos desde la última sur quatre composantes du pro- to assess program performance evaluaciôn. Se presta especial aten- gramme : les organisations commu- x i The Next Ascent: An Evaluation of the Aga Khan Rural Support Program, Pakistan are those used by OED for ciôn a cuatro componentes nautaires, le développement World Bank projects: rele- del programa: organizacio- de l'infrastructure, la gestion vance, efficacy, efficiency, nes comunitarias, desarrollo des ressources naturelles et institutional development de la infraestructura, gestión le microfinancement. Les cri- impact, and sustainability. de los recursos naturales y tères utilisés pour évaluer la tThe methods used in microfinanciamiento. Los cri- . performance du programme this evaluation consisted terios utilizados para evaluar sont ceux que le DEO utilise mainly of group and indi- el desempeño del programa pour les projets de la Ban- vidual discussions in a sample of son los empleados por el DEO para que mondiale : pertinence, effica- 24 villages selected to represent a los proyectos del Banco Mundial: cité, impact sur le développement spread of village types and capac- pertinencia, eficacia, eficiencia, institutionnel et durabilité. ities. It also included economic efectos en el desarrollo institucional Les méthodes utilisées pour analysis; a microfinance staff y sostenibilidad. l'évaluation ont été principalement workshop; application of four Los métodos empleados para des discussions en groupes et indi- semiformal village questionnaires; esta evaluación han sido sobre todo viduelles dans 24 villages-échan- an institutional survey of AKRSP conversaciones colectivas e indivi- tillons sélectionnés de façon à staff; analysis of socio-economic duales en una muestra de 24 aldeas représenter la diversité des villages survey data collected in 1991 and seleccionadas en representación de et de leurs capacités. Elles ont éga- 1997; review of the extensive una gran diversidad de tipos de lement consisté en des analyses AKRSP literature, including other aldeas y capacidades. Se han utili- économiques, un atelier pour le donor evaluations; an investiga- zado también los siguientes medios: personnel sur le microfinancement, tion of cost comparators of other el análisis econômico, un taller l'application de quatre questionnai- rural development projects; and sobre microfinanciamiento para el res villageois semi-formels, une discussions with senior staff of the personal, la aplicación de cuatro enquête institutionnelle du person- program components and the cuestionarios semiformales en las nel du PARAK, l'analyse des don- administrations. aldeas, una encuesta institucional nées de l'enquête To assess the challenges of del personal del AKRSP, el análisis socio-économique recueillies en this program it is necessary to de datos socioeconômicos recopila- 1991 et 1997, une revue de la vaste understand that the Northern dos mediante encuestas entre 1991 litérature sur le PARAK (y compris Areas (although not Chitral, y 1997, el estudio de las numerosas les évaluations effectuées par which is part of North West Fron- publicaciones del AKRSP (incluidas d'autres organismes donateurs), une tier Province) is militarily sensitive las evaluaciones de otros donantes), enquête sur les comparateurs de and politically different from the una investigación de los compara- coûts d'autres projets de développe- rest of Pakistan. For historical dores de costos de otros proyectos ment rural, et des discussions avec reasons, it is a federally adminis- de desarrollo rural y conversaciones les cadres responsables des compo- tered area, under the jurisdiction con el personal de rango superior santes du programme et des admin- of Pakistan's Federal Minister of sobre los componentes del pro- istrations. Kashmir Affairs and Northern grama y las administraciones. Avant d'aborder les défis de ce Areas and a Legislative Council, Para evaluar los desafios que programme, il est nécessaire de headed by a federally appointed presenta este programa es preciso comprendre que les zones du nord chief executive and consisting of comprender que las zonas septen- (sauf la zone Chitral qui est située 24 locally elected members who trionales (aunque no Chitral, que dans la Province frontière nord- elect a deputy chief executive. forma parte de la Provincia de la ouest) constituent une région criti- The people of the Northern Frontera Noroccidental) son de que en termes militaires et Areas do not elect members to importancia critica desde el punto politiquement différente du reste du Pakistan's National Assembly, de vista militar y politicamente dife- pays. Pour des raisons historiques, nor are they directly taxed, but rentes del resto de Pakistán. Por c'est une zone administrée par le they are provided a number of razones históricas, se trata de una gouvernement fédéral pakistanais subsidies. zona administrada federalmente, sous la juridiction du ministre fédé- xii Executive Summary Outcome bajo la jurisdicciôn del ral des Affaires du Cache- The achievements of the Ministro Federal de Asuntos mire et des zones septentrio- AKRSP have been highly de Cachemira y las Zonas nales, et d'un Conseil satisfactory. Results have Septentrionales y un Consejo législatif dirigé par un pre- been remarkable over both . Legislativo, presidido por un mier magistrat désigné au its 18-year life'and its most jefe ejecutivo de nombra- plan fédéral, qui comprend recent 5-year period. While miento federal e integrado 24 membres élus localement weaknesses have appeared por 24 miembros localmente et chargés d'élire un sous- in some areas, they are matched elegidos, que eligen a su vez a un premier magistrat. Les populations by strengths rarely found in rural jefe ejecutivo adjunto. La poblaciôn des zones du nord n'élisent pas les development interventions. Fur- de las zonas septentrionales no membres de l'Assemblée nationale thermore, based on the program's elige a los miembros de la Asam- pakistanaise et ne sont pas soumi- quick and creative responses to blea Nacional de Pakistàn ni está ses à l'impôt direct, mais elle béné- emerging problems in the past, sometida a impuestos directos, pero ficient de subventions. the AKRSP can be expected to recibe algunos subsidios. modify its strategy and tactics as Résultats new priorities and opportunities Resultado Les résultats du PARAK sont très appear. Los logros del AKRSP han sido muy satisfaisants. Ils ont été remarqua- By adopting a flexible satisfactorios. Los resultados han bles aussi bien pendant ses 18 ans approach and learning from sido notables tanto en sus 18 afios d'exécution que pendant sa période experience, the program has de vida como en los cinco ùltimos plus récente de 5 ans. Si on note maintained substantial relevance años. Si bien se han detectado defi- des faiblesses dans certains domai- to the development priorities of ciencias en algunas esferas, están nes, elles sont amplement compen- Pakistan and the Northern Areas contrarrestadas por ventajas que sées par des forces rarement and Chitral (NAC) since its incep- rara vez se encuentran en interven- relevées dans les interventions de tion in late 1982. More recently, ciones en favor del desarrollo rural. développement rural. De plus, si however, its relevance has been Ademàs, habida cuenta de las rápi- l'on se base sur la réaction rapide et threatened by continued weak- das y creativas respuestas del pro- novatrice du programme face aux ness in government capacity; grama a los problemas aparecidos problèmes émergents du passé, on declining frequency of infrastruc- en el pasado, es de prever que el peut anticiper que le PARAK sera ture investment at the village AKRSP modifique su estrategia y en mesure de modifier sa stratégie level that in the past served to tácticas a medida que aparezcan et sa tactique à mesure qu'apparaî- bind community organizations in nuevas prioridades y oportunidades. tront de nouvelles priorités et a common purpose; increased AI adoptar un planteamiento flexi- opportunités. pluralism in community organiza- ble y aprender de la experiencia, el En adoptant une démarche sou- tions; too little progress in bring- programa ha mantenido una perti- ple et en tirant des leçons de ing women into the mainstream; nencia sustancial en relaciôn con las l'expérience, le programme est declines in saving and credit prioridades de desarrollo de Pakistán demeuré en grande partie pertinent flows; and increased overdues in y las zonas septentrionales y Chitral pour ce qui est des priorités du microfinance. These changes in desde su comienzo, a finales de Pakistan et des Zones du nord/Chi- the program environment, while 1982. No obstante, más reciente- tral (ZNC) depuis son lancement en challenging, also present renewal mente su pertinencia se ha visto fin d'année 1982. Toutefois, sa per- and partnership opportunities for amenazada por las persistentes defi- tinence a été mise en danger the AKRSP. ciencias de la capacidad de gob- récemment en raison de la médio- Efficacy (achievement of objec- ierno; la menor frecuencia de cre performance persistante du tives) has been fully satisfactory, inversiones en infraestructura en las gouvernement, du déclin de la fré- in most respects highly satisfac- aldeas, que en el pasado contribuye- quence des investissements dans tory. Incomes have increased sub- ron a unir a las organizaciones l'infrastructure villageoise qui autre- stantially, certainly beyond the comunitarias en la búsqueda de un fois liaient les organisations com- x iii The Next Ascent: An Evaluation of the Aga Khan Rural Support Program, Pakistan original target of a dou- objetivo común; el mayor munautaires à leur but com- bling in real terms. It is dif- pluralismo de las organizacio- mun, le pluralisme croissant ficult to prove attribution at nes comunitarias; el escaso des organisations commu- the aggregate level absent progreso en la integraciôn de nautaires, le peu de progrès a "without program" con- la mujer; el descenso de los vers l'intégration des femmes trol, but both the economic flujos de ahorro y crédito, y dans le processus général, le analysis and analysis of the el aumento de las deudas déclin de l'épargne et de cir- 1991 and 1997 socio-eco- pendientes en las actividades culation du crédit, et les nomic data suggest that a share of de microfinanciamiento. Estos cam- arriérés de paiement du microfinan- these benefits-more than suffi- bios en el entorno del programa, si cement de plus en plus nombreux. cient to justify the cost-is attrib- bien representan un desafío, ofrecen Bien que redoutables, ces change- utable to the AKRSP. The program también oportunidades de renova- ments dans l'environnement du appears to have been very effec- ciôn y asociación para el AKRSP. programme sont aussi pour le tive in enhancing beneficiary La eficacia (logro de los objeti- PARAK des opportunités de renou- capacity and building social capi- vos) ha sido satisfactoria y, en la veau et de partenariats. tal. The objective of replicability mayor parte de los aspectos, muy L'efficacité (atteinte des objectifs) has been fully achieved, both satisfactoria. Los ingresos han est très satisfaisante à bien des within Pakistan and elsewhere, aurnentado de forma sustancial, cier- égards. Les revenus ont augmenté and in many respects the program tamente màs del objetivo original de sensiblement, certes bien au-delà has become a laboratory for rural duplicarlos en términos reales. Es de la cible initiale de doublement development. About eight major dificil determinar la atribuciôn en en termes réels. Il est difficile d'en programs or projects in Pakistan cifras globales, dada la ausencia de prouver l'attribution au niveau have drawn substantially from una hipôtesis de control "sin pro- d'agrégat en l'absence de contrôle AKRSP experience, including the grama", pero tanto el análisis econó- - sans programme - ; mais l'analyse National Rural Support Program mico como el estudio de los datos économique et celle des données and the ongoing World Bank-sup- socioeconômicos de 1991 y 1997 socio-économiques effectuées en ported Poverty Alleviation Project. parecen indicar que una parte de 1991 et 1997 montrent qu'une partie Outside Pakistan, other pro- estos beneficios -más de lo sufi- de ces avantages - plus que suffi- grams-supported not only by the ciente para justificar el costo- es sante pour en justifier le coût - est Aga Khan Foundation but by atribuible al AKRSP. Parece que el imputable au PARAK. Le pro- other donors as well-use com- programa ha sido muy eficaz en lo gramme semble avoir été très effi- munity-based processes drawn que respecta a aumentar la capaci- cace en matière d'amélioration de la substantially or partly from the dad de los beneficiarios e incremen- capacité des bénéficiaires et d'aug- AKRSP. While efficacy in achiev- tar el patrimonio social. El objetivo mentation du capital social. L'objec- ing the AKRSP's earlier objective de posibilidad de reproducciôn se tif de duplication a été pleinement of "working itself out of a job" ha conseguido plenamente, tanto atteint aussi bien au Pakistan has been negligible, it is question- dentro de Pakistán como en otros qu'ailleurs et, à bien des égards, le able whether this was a realistic lugares, y en muchos sentidos el programme est devenu un labora- objective at the time. Even today programa se ha convertido en un toire de développement rural. Au it is probably unrealistic at a pro- laboratorio para el desarrollo rural. Pakistan, environ huit grands pro- gram level, although it is realistic Unos ocho grandes programas o jets ont tiré des leçons de l'expé- for an increasing number of more proyectos de Pakistán se han basado rience du PARAK, dont le mature community organizations. ampliamente en la experiencia del Programme national d'appui rural et Efficiency has been satisfactory AKRSP, incluido el programa nacio- le Projet de réduction de la pau- in terms of the costs of achieving nal de apoyo rural y el actual pro- vreté en cours cofinancé par la these results. While the AKRSP is yecto de reducción de la pobreza Banque mondiale. En dehors du at the top end of a range of respaldado por el Banco Mundial. Pakistan, d'autres programmes - global and local comparators for Fuera de Pakistán, otros programas cofinancés non seulement par la operating costs per household, -patrocinados no sôlo por la Fun- Fondation Aga Khan mais aussi par xiv Executive Summary the estimated economic daciôn Aga Khan sino tam- d'autres organismes dona- rate of return of at least 16 bién por otros donantes- teurs - utilisent des proces- percent-probably closer utilizan procesos de base 4 sus communautaires tirés en to 25 to 30 percent if all comunitaria inspirados en tout ou partie du PARAK. benefits could be quanti- mayor o menor medida en el Bien que l'efficacité pour fied and attributed-sug- AKRSP. Si bien la eficacia en atteindre l'objectif établi plus gests the investment el logro del objetivo inicial tôt et qui consistait à « ne choices have been sound. de "Ilegar a no ser necesa- plus rien avoir à faire » ait It should be possible, however, to rios" ha sido insignificante, quizá été négligeable, il est maintenant improve efficiency even further este objetivo no era muy realista en présumé douteux qu'il ait été réal- through greater tailoring of com- aquellas fechas. Incluso hoy dia es iste à l'époque. Même aujourd'hui, munity support to community probablemente poco realista desde il est probablement chimérique au self-help capacity, through la perspectiva del programa, aunque niveau d'un programme, mais il increased collaboration within the puede serlo para un número cre- reste réaliste au niveau d'un nom- Aga Khan Development Network ciente de organizaciones comunita- bre croissant d'organisations com- (AKDN) family, and through a rias más maduras. munautaires plus matures. higher level of cost recovery for La eficiencia ha sido satisfactoria L'efficacité a été atteinte en ter- investments, particularly for pri- en lo que respecta a los costos con- mes de coûts pour arriver à ces vate goods and for training. traidos para alcanzar esos resulta- résultats. Bien que le PARAK se dos. Si bien el AKRSP se encuentra place à l'extrémité supérieure d'une Institutional Development en el extremo superior de una serie plage de comparateurs mondiaux et Impact de comparadores mundiales y loca- locaux des coûts de fonctionnement Community organizations lie at les en bo que se refiere a los costos par ménage, le taux de rentabilité the heart of the AKRSP approach. de explotación por hogar, la tasa de économique estimé à 16 pour cent Village organizations started by rentabilidad econômica estimada de au moins - probablement plus the program have been the mech- al menos el 16% -y probablemente près de 25 à 30 pour cent si tous anism for developing social and más prôxima al 25%-30%, si se les avantages pouvaient être quanti- human capital; creating infrastruc- cuantifican y atribuyen todos los fiés et imputés - laisse à penser ture; carrying out savings and beneficios- parece indicar que las que les investissements choisis loan activities; improving agricul- decisiones de inversión han sido étaient solides. Il devrait toutefois ture, livestock, and forestry; and acertadas. No obstante, seria posible être possible d'améliorer l'efficacité providing a convenient channel lograr una eficiencia todavia mayor encore davantage à travers l'adapta- for government and other agen- mediante una mejor adaptaciôn del tion plus poussée de l'appui com- cies to respond to village needs. apoyo comunitario a la capacidad munautaire à la capacité d'entraide The achievements have been de autoayuda de la comunidad, una des communautés, grâce à une col- impressive and, unlike many mayor colaboraciôn con la Red de laboration plus serrée au sein du other donor-funded interventions, Desarrollo Aga Khan (AKDN, por groupe de Réseaux de développe- sustained. Currently, two main sus siglas en inglés) y un mayor ment Aga Khan (RDAK) et d'un types of organizations are being nivel de recuperación de costos plus haut niveau de recouvrement supported: village organizations para las inversiones, sobre todo en des coûts d'investissement, en parti- for men and women's organiza- bo que se refiere a los bienes priva- culier dans les biens privés et la for- tions, although umbrella local dos y la capacitaciôn. mation professionnelle. development organizations are becoming increasingly important. Efectos en el desarrollo Impact sur le développement Within the villages there is wide- institucional institutionnel spread acknowledgment of what Las organizaciones comunitarias Les organisations communautaires these organizational structures ocupan un lugar central en el plan- sont au coeur de l'approche du have done for members, and teamiento del AKRSP. Las organiza- PARAK. Les organisations villageoi- there is survey evidence that ciones rurales iniciadas por el ses établies par le programme ont xv The Next Ascent: An Evaluation of the Aga Khan Rural Support Program, Pakistan being in a village with programa han sido el meca- servi de mécanismes de community organizations nismo utilizado para el des- développement du capital brings a range of benefits. arrollo del capital social y social et humain en créant Based on the strength of humano, la creaciôn de l'infrastructure, en réalisant the program's community . infraestructura, la realizaciôn des activités d'épargne orientation, these organiza- de actividades de ahorro y immobilière, en améliorant tions, or their evolving préstamo, la mejora de la les secteurs de l'agriculture, forms, will likely remain agricultura, la ganadería y la de l'élevage et de la foreste- the locus of the AKRSP's develop- silvicultura, y el establecimiento de rie, et en servant de réseau à la dis- ment effort. In the future, how- un cauce válido para que el gob- position des gouvernements et ever, resource constraints and ierno y otros organismos respondan autres organismes donateurs pour sustainability goals will dictate an a las necesidades de las aldeas. Los répondre aux besoins villageois. Les increasing degree of differentia- logros han sido impresionantes y, a résultats ont été impressionnants et, tion in the effort the AKRSP diferencia de muchas otras inversio- contrairement à d'autres interven- devotes to different types of nes financiadas por donantes, dura- tions financées par des donateurs, organizations. For example, the deros. En la actualidad, se presta ils sont durables. Pour l'instant, AKRSP may have to choose apoyo a dos tipos principales de deux grands types d'organisations between supporting high-fliers organizaciôn -organizaciones rura- bénéficient d'un appui : les organi- with good business skills relevant les para hombres y organizaciones sations villageoises masculines et to the needs of the local econ- de mujeres-, aunque cada vez les organisations villageoises fémini- omy; or organizations that have están adquiriendo mayor importan- nes dans un milieu où les organis- primarily social objectives, such as cia las organizaciones de desarrollo mes ombrelles de développement managing conflict resolution or rural de carácter más amplio. Dentro rural deviennent de plus en plus canvassing for girls' education; or de las aldeas se reconoce en general importants. Dans les villages, on simply the most economically dis- Io que estas estructuras organizativas sait très bien ce que ces structures advantaged areas and villages. han hecho por sus miembros, y en organisationnelles font pour leurs Designing an effective, differenti- las encuestas hay testimonios de que membres et, d'après les enquêtes, il ated approach will call for a good el pertenecer a una aldea con orga- est évident que le fait d'appartenir à understanding of the differences nizaciones comunitarias representa un village doté d'organisations com- in village institutional maturity, una serie de beneficios. munautaires apporte toutes sortes the reasons for those differ- Teniendo en cuenta la importan- d'avantages. ences--the status of social capital, cia de la orientaciôn comunitaria del En raison de l'orientation com- the needs of different groups- programa, estas organizaciones, o las munautaire solide du programme, il and for evaluation of the relative que resulten de su evoluciôn, conti- est probable que ces organisations poverty impacts of alternative nuarán siendo probablemente el (ou leurs formes évoluées) demeu- approaches. nùcleo de los esfuerzos de desarrollo reront le locus de l'effort de déve- The main weakness of the del AKRSP. No obstante, en el futuro loppement du PARAK. Dans l'avenir AKRSP, which owes its origin las limitaciones de recursos y los cependant, les contraintes de res- partly to the very success of the objetivos de sostenibilidad impon- sources et la durabilité des résultats program, is related to institutional drán un grado cada vez mayor de seront les préceptes du degré crois- development and institutional sus- diferenciación en el esfuerzo que el sant de différentiation de l'effort tainability in the broadest sense. If AKRSP dedicará a los diferentes tipos consacré par le PARAK aux divers the AKRSP were to close tomor- de organizaciôn. Por ejemplo, es types d'organisations. Par exemple, row, there would be a large insti- posible que el AKRSP tenga que ele- le PARAK devra peut-être choisir tutional gap in the NAC, a gap gir entre apoyar a las personas más entre l'appui aux - élites - possédant that other agencies, most signifi- ambiciosas con dotes empresariales une expertise commerciale solide cantly the district administrations, valiosas para la economia local o a pour satisfaire les besoins de l'éco- could not fill. While the AKRSP las organizaciones que tienen funda- nomie locale, l'appui à des organi- has contributed positively to gov- mentalmente objetivos sociales, sations dont les objectifs seront xvi Executive Summary ernment initiatives in the como lograr la resoluciôn de principalement d'ordre NAC, and even sought to conflictos o promover la edu- social, tels que la gestion de influence national policy, it caciôn de las nifias, o simple- la résolution des conflits ou is more difficult to discern mente a las zonas y aldeas le démarchage pour l'éduca- the AKRSP's handiwork in màs desfavorecidas econômi- tion des filles, et l'appui sim- the line departments of camente. La designaciôn de plement aux zones et government, the private un planteamiento eficaz y villages les plus démunis sur sector, and provincial and diferenciado requerirá una le plan économique. L'élabo- national policymaking forums. Yet comprensión adecuada de las dife- ration d'une approche différenciée it is success in these arenas that rencias en la madurez institucional efficace exigera une bonne compré- will largely determine the course de las aldeas, las razones de esas hension des différences de maturité of the region's future progress. diferencias -situación del patrimo- des institutions villageoises, les rai- Without a marked improvement nio social, necesidades de los dife- sons de ces différences - le statut in the government's development rentes grupos- y una evaluaciôn de du capital social, les besoins des capacity, long-run sustained los aspectos relativos que los distin- divers groupes - et une évaluation progress in the NAC will remain tos enfoques pueden tener en la des impacts relatifs d'autres elusive. While government per- pobreza. approches. formance is not the AKRSP's La principal deficiencia del La principale faiblesse du responsibility, a more equal part- AKRSP, que debe su origen en parte PARAK, qui est en partie imputable nership of all key players in the al éxito mismo del programa, està à la réussite même du programme, NAC should now be seen by the relacionada con el desarrollo insti- se rapporte au développement et à AKRSP, by AKRSP donors, by gov- tucional y la sostenibilidad institu- la durabilité institutionnels dans le ernment, and by government cional en sentido màs amplio. Si el sens le plus large. Si le PARAK donors as the essential locus of AKRSP desapareciera mañana, devait être abandonné demain, il y future development and the key habria una gran brecha institucional aurait un « trou » institutionnel dans instrument in best serving the en las ZSC, brecha que otros orga- les ZNC que les autres organismes future needs of the people of the nismos, en particular las administra- ne pourraient pas combler, surtout NAC. ciones de distrito, no podrian les administrations au niveau des All in all, the AKRSP was found cubrir. Si bien el AKRSP ha contri- districts. Il est certes évident que le to be well managed-based partly buido positivamente a las iniciativas PARAK a contribué de manière on an institutional survey under- gubernamentales en las ZSC, e positive aux initiatives gouverne- taken by the evaluation team. incluso tratô de influir en las politi- mentales dans les ZNC, et a même Some shortcomings in the cas nacionales, es más dificil deter- recherché à influencer la politique AKRSP's human resource policies minar la labor del AKRSP en los nationale, mais il est plus difficile remain, however, especially the departamentos sectoriales del gob- de discerner les activités du PARAK long-standing issue of gender ierno, el sector privado y los foros dans les ministères concernés, le imbalance. The AKRSP is rightly de formulaciôn de politicas nacio- secteur privé et les forums natio- planning to make a number of nales y provinciales. No obstante, naux et provinciaux de prise de organizational changes to better es precisamente su éxito en estas décisions. Et pourtant, c'est la réus- align itself to changes in its strate- esferas bo que determinará en site dans cette arène qui détermi- gic focus. In reorganizing, the buena medida el curso del progreso nera en grande partie le cours de AKRSP should continue to be futuro de la regiôn. Sin una notable l'évolution future de la région. Sans guided by organizational equity as mejoria de la capacidad de desarro- amélioration marquée de la capa- in the past, but it should also be Ilo del gobierno, serà imposible cité de développement gouverne- guided by the demands of the conseguir un progreso sostenido a mentale, les avancées durables à overarching goal of forging a largo plazo en las ZSC. Si bien el long terme dans les ZNC demeure- development coalition in the NAC desempefño gubernamental no es ront élusives. Bien que le PARAK through interlocking partnerships responsabilidad del AKRSP, una ne soit pas responsable de la per- with all key players. Reorganizing asociaciôn màs igualitaria de todas formance gouvernementale, un par- xvii The Next Ascent: An Evaluation of the Aga Khan Rural Support Program, Pakistan for partnership will call for las principales partes intere- tenariat mieux équilibré arrangements that encour- sadas en las ZSC deberia ser entre tous les acteurs clés age the closest possible considerada ahora por el des ZNC devrait être mainte- interaction with the key AKRSP, por los donantes del nant considéré par le PARAK institutions in the NAC, AKRSP, por el gobierno y et ses organismes donateurs, especially with government por los donantes del gob- et le gouvernement et ses and the AKDN. It is this ierno como elemento funda- organismes donateurs, goal that sbould be given mental del desarrollo futuro comme le locus essentiel du the greatest weight inframing the y como instrumento clave para développement à venir et l'instru- AKRSP'sfuture organization. atender mejor las necesidades futu- ment clé pour mieux répondre aux ras de la población de las ZSC. besoins futurs des populations des Sustainability En conjunto, se ha observado que ZNC. The approach and development el AKRSP está bien administrado, Somme toute, il a été déterminé ideas of the AKRSP are sustain- según resultados basados en parte que le PARAK avait été bien exé- able, as demonstrated by their en una encuesta institucional reali- cuté - selon, en partie, une replication elsewhere. Many of zada por el equipo de evaluaciôn. enquête institutionnelle effectuée the village organizations created No obstante, continúan algunos de par l'équipe d'évaluation. On note by the program have matured and los inconvenientes en las politicas de encore cependant quelques insuffi- would likely survive without close recursos humanos del AKRSP, en sances dans les politiques de res- AKRSP supervision-"it would be particular el problema ya tradicional sources humaines, notamment la difficult, but we would manage," del desequilibrio entre el hombre y question ancienne déjà portant sur in the words of one community la mujer. El AKRSP está planificando l'inégalité entre les sexes. Le PARAK leader. The infrastructure built la introducciôn de una serie de cam- prévoit à juste titre d'apporter quel- under the program is also sustain- bios organizativos para acomodarse ques changements organisationnels able because it was village- mejor a las transformaciones de su afin d'être dans le droit fil de chosen, is well maintained, and orientación estratégica. En esa reor- l'objectif de sa réorientation straté- provides a positive return. Sus- ganización, el AKRSP deberia seguir gique. Pendant sa réorganisation, le tainabiliry of the microfinance teniendo como norma la equidad, Io PARAK devra encore être guidé par program has been and remains mismo que en el pasado, pero debe- l'équité organisationnelle, mais good, despite recent operational ría también tener en cuenta las aussi par les exigences liées au but failures, and the program is now demandas del objetivo global de déterminant de forger une coalition being passed on to a new, establecer una coalición para el des- de développement dans les ZNC à AKRSP-controlled bank. There arrollo en las ZSC mediante asocia- travers des partenariats réunissant are, however, some notable sus- ciones mutuas con todos los tous les acteurs clés. La réorganisa- tainability risks. participantes principales. Esta reorga- tion en partenariats exigera des The most obvious, but one nizaciôn exigirà el establecimiento mesures d'encouragement à l'inter- that is shared with all non- de mecanismos que alienten la inter- action la plus étroite possible avec endowment, donor-supported acciôn màs estrecha posible con las les institutions clés dans les ZNC, programs, is that the AKRSP is not instituciones clave de las ZSC, espe- notamment avec le gouvernement financially sustainable. It relies on cialmente con el gobierno y la et le groupe RDAK. C'est ce but qui the continuing patronage of AKDN. Este objetivo deberia recibir la devrait avoir le plus de poids dans donors. Signs of donor fatigue máxima importancia al configurar l'élaboration de l'organisation may lead to reduced funding in la organizaciônfutura del AKRSP. future du PARAK. the future (although recent events in the region may change that). If Sostenibilidad Durabilité the AKRSP tightens its belt; if it El planteamiento y las ideas de des- L'approche et les idées de dévelop- vigorously pursues the goal of a arrollo del AKRSP son sostenibles, pement du PARAK sont durables, development coalition; if it devel- como demuestra su aplicación en comme l'a démontré sa duplication ops a new strategy pursuing effi- otros lugares. Muchas de las organi- ailleurs. De nombreuses organisa- xviii Executive Summary ciency; and if it sells itself zaciones rurales creadas por tions villageoises créées par increasingly as a laboratory el programa han madurado y le programme ont atteint la for developing and testing - probablemente sobrevivirían maturité et survivraient pro- creative new ideas on rural sin necesidad de supervisiôn bablement sans la supervi- development, disseminat- estrecha por parte del AKRSP: sion rigoureuse du PARAK ing them, and helping oth- "Seria dificil, pero nos las . - - cela serait difficile, mais ers to learn its skills, then podriamos arreglar", en pala- nous y arriverions », a dit un both the continued poverty bras de un lider comunitario. leader communautaire. challenge within the NAC and La infraestructura construida en el L'infrastructure construite dans le these public good aspects of its marco del programa es también sos- cadre du programme est également work constitute a strong case for tenible, ya que fue elegida por las durable parce qu'elle a été choisie continued international donor aldeas, está bien mantenida y tiene au niveau du village, est bien entre- assistance. una rentabilidad positiva. La sosteni- tenue et assure un retour positif sur There are also challenges bilidad del programa de microfinan- l'investissement. La durabilité du with sustaining incentives for ciamiento ha sido y continúa siendo programme de microfinancement collective action in what will aceptable, a pesar de recientes pro- demeure bonne malgré quelques inevitably become more pluralis- blemas operacionales, y el programa échecs opérationnels, et le pro- tic, function-based community se está transfiriendo ahora a un gramme est en cours de transfert à organizations. With the low fre- nuevo banco controlado por el une nouvelle banque contrôlée par quency of repeat traditional infra- AKRSP. No obstante, se observan le PARAK. Cependant, la durabilité structure investments (partly a algunos riesgos importantes en Io comporte des risques particuliers. result of the AKRSP's own strat- que respecta a la sostenibilidad. Le risque le plus manifeste, mais egy of limiting grants for infra- El riesgo más obvio, compartido qui est commun à tous les program- structure) and increased cost con todos los programas sin dota- mes sans dotation soutenus par des recovery, and with the floating of ciôn y respaldados por donantes, es organismes donateurs, est que le the new microfinance bank, the que el AKRSP no es financiera- PARAK n'est pas durable sur le plan AKRSP and the AKDN family will mente sostenible. Depende del con- financier. Il dépend du patronage need to listen carefully to evolv- tinuado patrocinio de los donantes. continu des donateurs. Tout signe ing community needs. To main- Los signos de fatiga de los donantes de fatigue de la part des organismes tain sustainability, the AKRSP will pueden dar lugar a una reducciôn donateurs peut mener à une réduc- also need to forge improved links del financiamiento en el futuro tion de financement dans l'avenir with the private sector, give prior- (aunque los acontecimientos recien- (bien que les événements survenus ity to under-served women and tes en la regiôn podrian cambiar la récemment dans la région puissent women's groups, further build situación). Si el AKRSP adopta changer la situation). Si le PARAK skills needed both locally and medidas de austeridad, si persigue - se serre la ceinture .., s'il poursuit nationally, and offer natural ordenadamente el objetivo de una vigoureusement le but de former resource management technology coalición para el desarrollo, si ins- une coalition de développement, to under-served high-altitude taura una nueva estrategia que pro- s'il développe une nouvelle straté- areas and poorer households. mueva la eficiencia y si se vende gie axée sur l'efficacité, s'il se Individual programs also face cada vez màs como laboratorio fait valoir comme laboratoire d'éla- sustainability challenges. Micro- encargado de formular y ensayar boration et d'essai d'idées novatri- hydel schemes, in particular, nuevas ideas creativas sobre el des- ces en développement rural, s'il need to make a greater effort at arrollo rural, y de difundirlas y ayu- dissémine ces idées et aide les cost recovery. In the marketing dar a otros a adquirir conocimientos autres à assimiler ses compétences, and enterprise development pro- prácticos, tanto el continuado des- le défi persistant de la pauvreté gram, the diverse activities have afio de la pobreza dentro de las dans les ZNC et les aspects de ses been uneven in their sustainabil- ZSC como los aspectos de su labor travaux axés sur le bien public for- ity, suggesting the need to priori- relacionados con los bienes públi- ment un argument irréfutable en tize better in this area. cos constituyen un fuerte argu- faveur de la continuation de l'aide xix The Next Ascent: An Evaluation of the Aga Khan Rural Support Program, Pakistan Lessons for the mento para que continúe la des organismes donateurs Development asistencia de los donantes internationaux. Community internacionales. Il existe également des The harsh and often Hay también problemas défis au niveau du maintien remote high mountain val- para mantener los incentivos des incitations à l'action col- leys of the Western a una acciôn colectiva en lo lective dans les organisations Himalayas, Karakorams, que llegaràn a ser unas orga- communautaires qui seront and Hindukush are among nizaciones comunitarias inévitablement de plus en the most demanding settings in basadas en la función y cada vez plus pluralistes et basées sur les the world for social and economic más pluralistas. Debido a la baja fre- fonctions. Étant donné la faible fré- development. About 900,000 peo- cuencia de las inversiones repetidas quence des investissements répétés ple in most of the 1,100 villages en infraestructura tradicional (en dans l'infrastructure (due en partie scattered over the rugged territory parte, por la propia estrategia del à la propre stratégie du PARAK of the NAC are led by commu- AKRSP de limitar las donaciones visant à limiter les subventions pour nity-based organizations that have para infraestructura) y a la mayor l'infrastructure), la faible améliora- been inspired and assisted for 18 recuperaciôn de costos, asi como a tion du recouvrement des coûts et years by the AKRSP. Two thou- la puesta en marcha del nuevo le flottement de la nouvelle banque sand new irrigation, road, and banco de microfinanciamiento, el de microfinancement, le PARAK et other construction schemes have AKRSP y la AKDN deberán estar le groupe RDAK devront prêter une been completed. Thousands have muy atentos a las nuevas necesida- attention particulière à l'évolution been trained in productive skills, des de la comunidad. Para mantener des besoins communautaires. Pour villagers have come together to la sostenibilidad, el AKRSP deberá maintenir la durabilité, le PARAK manage their own affairs, thou- forjar también vinculos más estre- devra également forger des liens sands of small loans have been chos con el sector privado, dar prio- avec le secteur privé, accorder la made and repaid, and new tech- ridad a las mujeres desatendidas y a priorité aux femmes mal desservies nology has spread widely. los grupos de mujeres, desarrollar et aux groupements féminins, ren- Incomes have risen, welfare los conocimientos prácticos necesa- forcer les compétences nécessaires improved, lives made a little eas- rios tanto a escala local como nacio- aux plans local et national, et offrir ier, and a start made on helping nal y ofrecer tecnologías de gestiôn une technologie de gestion des res- women to realize their potential. de los recursos naturales para las sources naturelles aux régions à As a result, word has spread, and zonas altas desatendidas y los hoga- haute altitude sous-desservies et the highly successful techniques res más pobres. Los programas con- aux ménages démunis. Les pro- of the AKRSP are being success- cretos deben afrontar también grammes individuels aussi font face fully used and adapted in similar problemas de sostenibilidad. Los à des défis de durablité. Les thèmes social situations throughout Pak- planes de energia hidroeléctrica en Microhydel en particulier doivent istan and elsewhere. pequeña escala, en particular, deben faire un plus grand effort pour amé- The experiences of the AKRSP realizar un mayor esfuerzo de recu- liorer le recouvrement des coûts. will likely continue to influence peraciôn de costos. En el programa Dans le programme de commercia- community development through- de comercializaciôn y desarrollo de lisation et de développement des out Pakistan, as well as in areas empresas, las distintas actividades entreprises, la durabilité des diver- both nearby (especially in neigh- han logrado niveles muy diferentes ses activités a été inégale, ce qui boring Afghanistan) and farther de sostenibilidad, Io que demuestra suggère la nécessité d'améliorer afield. This study identified sev- la necesidad de establecer mejor las l'établissement des priorités dans ce eral lessons worthy of note for the prioridades en esta esfera. domaine. global development community. Some are old, none entirely new, Enseianzas para las Leçons pour la communauté but all are worthy of repetition. instituciones de desarrollo de développement • In rural areas, broad and sus- Los inhôspitos y remotos valles eleva- Les vallées ingrates et souvent éloi- tained gains in economic and dos del Himalaya occidental, Karako- gnées dans les chaînes montagneu- xx Executive Summary social welfare must be ram e Hindukush figuran ses de l'Himalaya occidental, based on stable in- entre los lugares más inade- du Karakoram et de l'Hindu- creases in output. In- cuados del mundo para el kush sont considérées creased output requires desarrollo econômico y social. comme des milieux parmi that appropriate technol- Unas 900.000 personas de la les plus exigeants du monde ogy be available to mayoria de las 1.100 aldeas en termes de développement bring about relatively dispersas sobre el accidentado économique et social. Envi- quick returns. territorio de las ZSC estàn ron 900 000 personnes qui • There are ranges of intensity dirigidas por organizaciones comuni- habitent dans les 1 100 villages par- and coverage options in rural tarias, inspiradas y orientadas desde semés sur le territoire accidenté des programs from low input/low hace 18 afños por el AKRSP. Se han ZNC sont gouvernées par des orga- output to high input/high out- terminado 2.000 nuevos planes de nisations communautaires inspirées put. (The tradeoffs warrant riego, carreteras y otras obras de et aidées pendant 18 ans par le more exploration by the devel- construcciôn. Miles de personas han PARAK. Deux mille nouveaux opment community.) The recibido capacitaciôn en técnicas pro- ouvrages d'irrigation, des routes et object should be to maximize ductivas, los habitantes han podido autres constructions sont terminés. returns to the scarcest resource. reunirse para resolver sus propios Des milliers de personnes ont béné- Thus, where community facili- asuntos, se han otorgado y reembol- ficié d'une formation spécialisée, les tation and program manage- sado miles de pequeños préstamos y villageois se sont réunis pour gérer ment skills are scarce, as in the las nuevas tecnologias se han difun- leurs propres affaires, des milliers NAC, a high input/high output dido ampliamente. Los ingresos han de petits prêts ont été accordés et strategy, exploiting program aumentado, el bienestar ha mejorado, remboursés, et la nouvelle techno- complementarities while mak- las condiciones de vida son un poco logie s'est répandue partout. Les ing efficient use of these skills, más fáciles y se ha comenzado a ayu- revenus ont augmenté, le bien-être is a sound option. dar a la mujer a hacer realidad su s'est amélioré, la vie est un peu • Direct, intensive targeting of potencial. En consecuencia, se ha plus facile et on commence à aider the poorest of the poor, while divulgado la voz, y las rentables téc- les femmes à exploiter leur poten- useful for establishing nicas del AKRSP se están utilizando y tiel. Ainsi, l'effet s'est répandu et les processes and understanding adaptando con provecho en situacio- techniques très réussies du PARAK needs, warrants careful moni- nes sociales semejantes de todo sont utilisées avec succès et adap- toring if it is to be efficient. It Pakistán y en otros países. tées selon les circonstances sociales can be very staff-intensive and Las experiencias del AKRSP con- au Pakistan et ailleurs. may prove in the end to be tinuarán influyendo probablemente Il est vraisemblable que les less efficient than broader en el desarrollo comunitario de expériences du PARAK continueront approaches. todo el pais, asi como en regiones d'influencer le développement com- • Expansion (scaling up) is a prôximas (sobre todo en el pais munautaire dans tout le Pakistan, slow process even with skilled vecino Afganistán) y en territorios ainsi que dans des régions aussi facilitators, as there are few muy distantes. En el estudio Ilevado bien proches (notamment chez son economies of scale. (The num- a cabo se subrayan varias ensefian- voisin l'Afghanistan) qu'éloignées. ber of households supported zas dignas de interés para las insti- Cette étude a identifié plusieurs by this well-managed, multi- tuciones internacionales de leçons méritoires pour la commu- component program grew at desarrollo internacional. Algunas nauté de développement mondiale. about 10 percent per year- son antiguas, ninguna es del todo Certaines sont déjà connues, now, after 18 years, reaching nueva, pero en cualquier caso vale aucune n'est entièrement nouvelle, close to 100,000 households.) la pena repetirlas. mais toutes valent la peine d'être However, expansion by graft- • En las zonas rurales, los progre- dupliquées. ing new programs into loca- sos amplios y sostenidos del • Dans les zones rurales, les gains tions with similar circumstances bienestar econômico y social durables doivent être basés sur offers substantial leverage. deben estar basados en aumen- un accroissement stable du ren- xxi The Next Ascent: An Evaluation of the Aga Khan Rural Support Program, Pakistan • Incentives for commu- tos estables de la produc- dement. Le rendement nity action can change ción. Para aumentar la accru exige une disponibi- quite rapidly as pro- - producciôn se requieren lité de technologies appro- grams evolve. Programs tecnologias adecuadas priées pour assurer un should continually ana- que permitan conseguir retour sur l'investissement lyze and adjust incen- rendimientos relativa- relativement immédiat. tives, both economic mente ràpidos. • Il existe une grande and social, for different • En los programas rurales, gamme d'options d'inten- categories of households. hay distintas opciones de intensi- sité et de couverture pour les • Partnerships-between gov- dad y cobertura, desde un bajo programmes ruraux, allant de ernment, civil society, NGOs, volumen de producciôn con fables intrants/faibles rende- and the private sector-with escasos insumos hasta una pro- ments à hauts intrants/hauts ren- actionable and measurable ducciôn elevada con abundantes dements. (L'arbitrage mérite une commitments should be for- insumos (las soluciones de com- exploration plus approfondie par mally agreed at the start of a promiso entre las distintas posi- la communauté de développe- program to ensure clarity of bilidades deben ser objeto de ment.) L'objet doit être de maxi- roles and to create incentives examen más detenido por las miser les rendements de la for performance. instituciones de desarrollo). El ressource la plus rare. Ainsi, là • Eventual exit should be a objetivo debe ser multiplicar los où la facilitation communautaire phased process of increasingly rendimientos con el minimo de et les compétences de gestion differentiated but diminishing recursos. Por ello, cuando las des programmes sont rares, community support tailored to, técnicas de gestión de programas comme c'est le cas dans les ZNC, and partly by, each commu- y de facilitación comunitaria son une stratégie basée sur le prin- nity, with whom such strategies escasas, como ocurre en las ZSC, cipe de hauts intrants/hauts ren- should be agreed up front. puede ser acertada la estrategia dements et l'exploitation des de abundantes insumos/produc- complémentarités des program- Directions for the Future ciôn elevada, que aprovecharía mes tout en assurant l'utilisation What sort of organization should las complementariedades de los efficace de ces aptitudes, est une the AKRSP seek to be in 10 to 15 programas al mismo tiempo que option saine. years? Only the AKRSP itself can utilizaria de manera eficiente • Bien que le ciblage soit utile decide, but the evidence suggests esas capacidades. pour établir des processus et it should be smaller and more • La concentración directa e inten- comprendre les besoins, le embedded in an increasingly inte- siva en los más pobres, si bien ciblage direct et intensif des plus grated AKDN family. It should útil para establecer procesos y pauvres des pauvres requiert un become less indispensable to the comprender las necesidades, suivi minutieux si l'on veut qu'il NAC-or indispensable in an debe ser objeto de atenta super- soit efficace. Il peut demander entirely different way-through a visión para que resulte eficiente. beaucoup de personnel et peut steady shift toward greater govern- Puede requerir personal muy être, en définitive, moins efficace ment, corporate sector, and civil numeroso y, a la larga, ser que des approches moins fines. society partnerships focused on menos eficiente que otros plan- • L'expansion (augmentation gra- achieving greatly enhanced devel- teamientos más amplios. duelle) est un processus lent opment effectiveness among all • La expansiôn (reproducciôn en même quand on dispose de faci- the key institutions of the NAC. escala superior) es un proceso litateurs qualifiés, car il existe The AKRSP should become a rela- lento aun cuando se disponga de peu de possibilité d'économies tively modest-sized player, but in a personal experimentado, ya que d'échelle. (Le nombre de ména- relatively larger and more institu- hay pocas economias de escala ges couverts par ce programme à tionally pluralistic NAC team. It (el número de hogares que reci- multiples composantes bien should be as much a think tank for ben ayuda de este programa con gérées a augmenté d'environ 10 new development ideas for the numerosos componentes y bien pour cent par an - maintenant, xxii Executive Summary NAC and Pakistan as it is an administrado creciô apro- après 18 ans, il couvre area program, developing ximadamente un 10% al près de 100 000 ména- creative community devel- - año: ahora, después de 18 ges.) Cependant, l'expan- opment and policy options años, se habria Ilegado a sion par greffe de for government. It should un total prôximo a los nouveaux programmes aim for intellectual leader- 100.000 hogares). No obs- dans des contextes simi- ship in key areas of pro- tante, la expansiôn basada laires présente de grands poor development-for en la introducciôn de avantages. example, through creative experi- nuevos programas en lugares • Les incitations à l'action commu- mentation, in a culturally sensitive con circunstancias semejantes nautaire peuvent changer rapide- way, to bring women more into puede tener un considerable ment à mesure que les the mainstream. It should see eval- efecto multiplicador. programmes évoluent. Les pro- uation, learning, and transfer of • Los incentivos para la acciôn grammes doivent analyser et lessons both within and outside comunitaria pueden cambiar adapter continuellement les inci- Pakistan as an explicit part of its ràpidamente, a medida que evo- tations d'ordre social et économi- capacity development strategy. It lucionan los programas. Éstos que pour les diverses catégories should recover more of its costs, deben analizar y acomodar cons- de ménages. sell more of its services, and per- tantemente los incentivos, tanto • Les partenariats - entre le gou- haps be supported by a core econômicos como sociales, vernement, la société civile, les endowment. With its AKDN part- teniendo en cuenta las diferentes ONG et le secteur privé - ners in particular it should focus categorias de hogares. accompagnés d'engagement even more on human capacity • Las asociaciones -entre el gob- donnant droit d'action et de development. For its clients, in ierno, la sociedad civil, las ONG y mesure devraient être conclus due course, it should become a el sector privado- con compro- formellement dès le début d'un demand-led service organization, misos aplicables y cuantificables programme afin d'assurer la défi- ultinately relying on vastly deberian aprobarse por consenso nition claire des rôles et de créer improved telecommunications and al comienzo del programa, para des incitations à la performance. better main roads. While current garantizar la claridad de funciones • Le désengagement éventuel events may disrupt for a while, the e incentivar el desempefño. échelonné de l'appui commu- AKRSP must paint on a broader • La estrategia de salida deberia nautaire devrait être un proces- canvas-a canvas that is informed ser un proceso gradual de apoyo sus de plus en plus différencié by, but stretches well beyond, its comunitario cada vez más dife- mais déclinant, adapté à, et en past vision of creating and sustain- renciado pero decreciente, de partie par, chaque communauté ing village organizations. acuerdo con las necesidades de avec laquelle ces stratégies cada comunidad, con la que avaient été convenues au départ. Recommendations deberian aprobarse inicialmente The AKRSP's comparative advan- dichas medidas. Lignes Directrices Futures tages lie mainly in community Quelle sorte d'organisation le PARAK facilitation, program manage- Orientaciones para el futuro doit chercher à devenir d'ici 10 à 15 ment, and human resource devel- ¿Qué tipo de organización deberia ans ? Seul le PARAK peut en décider, opment at the village level; the tratar de ser el AKRSP dentro de 10 mais l'évidence laisse à penser qu'elle linking of professional skills with a 15 años? Ùnicamente el AKRSP devrait être de moindre envergure et local community skills; analytical puede decidirlo, pero los testimo- mieux imbriquée dans le groupe skills related to monitoring and nios disponibles parecen indicar que RDAK de plus en plus intégré. Elle evaluation; to some extent, pol- debe reducir su tamaño e incorpo- devrait devenir moins indispensable icy; and, above all, the capacity rarse progresivamente a una familia dans les ZNC - ou indispensable to "pull it all together." These AKDN cada vez más integrada. d'une toute autre façon - grâce à une comparative advantages can be Deberia ser menos indispensable réorientation soutenue vers de plus exploited by a strategy that para las ZSC -o indispensable de grands partenariats avec le gouverne- xxiii The Next Ascent: An Evaluation of the Aga Khan Rural Support Program, Pakistan addresses the following una forma totalmente ment, le secteur commercial recommendations. nueva- gracias a un cons- J et la société civile, partena- tante desplazamiento hacia - riats axés sur l'amélioration de Fine-tune the approach una mayor asociaciôn entre l'efficacité des institutions clés to improving rural NAC el gobierno, las empresas y la des ZNC. Le PARAK devrait livelihoods. sociedad civil, con el objetivo devenir un acteur relativement de lograr una mayor eficacia modeste, mais faire partie • Ensure attention to the en términos de desarrollo d'une équipe ZNC plus grande poor and women in the new entre todas las instituciones clave de et davantage pluraliste au plan insti- organizations. The shift to a las ZSC. El AKRSP debería conver- tutionnel. Il devrait jouer aussi bien le more pluralistic, functions- tirse en un protagonista relativa- rôle de groupe de réflexion chargé de based approach to community mente modesto, pero dentro de un trouver de nouvelles idées de déve- organizations is an appropriate equipo de las ZSC relativamente loppement pour les ZNC et le Pakis- and inevitable evolution, but it mayor e institucionalmente más plu- tan que le rôle de programme régional carries some risks for vulnera- ralista. Debería ser tanto un grupo chargé du développement commu- ble people. de reflexiôn sobre los nuevos con- nautaire novateur et de l'élaboration • Remain fully engaged in micro- ceptos de desarrollo para las ZSC y d'options politiques pour le gouver- finance. The new microfinance Pakistán como un programa geogrà- nement. Il devrait faire appel au lea- bank notwithstanding, the fico, que permita formular opciones dership intellectuel pour les zones AKRSP should ensure: (i) a creativas sobre politicas de desarro- clés de développement en faveur des continued explicit microfinance lo comunitario para el gobierno. pauvres - par exemple à travers strategy, covering the poverty Deberia tratar de desempeñar una l'expérimentation novatrice en ten- objective in particular; (ii) field funciôn de liderazgo intelectual en ant compte de la sensibilité culturelle coordination with the bank and esferas clave del desarrollo favorable dans le but d'intégrer davantage les maintenance of the important a los pobres -por ejemplo, medi- femmes dans le processus général. Il linkages between microfinance ante la experimentaciôn creativa, en devrait considérer l'évaluation, and other AKRSP program forma culturalmente flexible, para l'apprentissage et le transfert des activities; and (iii) clear agree- integrar más a la mujer. Deberia leçons aussi bien à l'intérieur qu'à ment on how the very risky considerar la evaluación, el aprendi- l'extérieur du pays comme partie emerging internal lending will zaje y la transferencia de enseianzas explicite de sa stratégie de dévelop- be supervised by the new bank tanto dentro como fuera de Pakistán pement des capacités. Il devrait recou- with AKRSP support. como parte expresa de su estrategia vrer une plus grande partie de ses • Improve efficiency through de desarrollo de la capacidad. Debe- coûts, offrir une plus grande quantité differentiation of support ría recuperar mayor parte de sus de services et peut-être bénéficier according to individual com- costos, vender más servicios y, d'une dotation de base. Avec ses par- munity needs-more for poor, quizá, contar con una dotaciôn tenaires du groupe RDAK en particu- more vulnerable communities, básica. En particular, junto con sus lier, il devrait centrer ses efforts less for mature communities. socios de la AKDN, deberia cen- davantage sur le développement des This would call for village trarse todavia más en el desarrollo capacités. Pour ses clients, il devrait consultations, the develop- de la capacidad humana. Para sus devenir, en temps utile, une organi- ment of a classification system, clientes, cuando llegue el momento sation de services régie par la and guidelines for staff on oportuno, debería convertirse en demande, qui en bout de ligne, pour- graduation criteria and una organizaciôn de servicios impul- rait s'appuyer sur des services de télé- procedures. sados por la demanda, basada en communication nettement améliorés • Increase cost recovery, review último término en servicios de tele- et un réseau de meilleures routes the grant/subsidy strategy, and comunicaciones inmensamente principales. Bien que les événements prepare criteria and guidelines mejorados y en una red de carrete- actuels puissent demeurer perturbants to ensure optimization of ras principales de mayor calidad. Si pendant quelque temps encore, le grant/subsidy impact. bien los actuales acontecimientos PARAK doit peindre sa vision sur une Xxiv Executive Summary • Increase the gender con- pueden representar un tras- plus grande toile de fond - tent in data collection in torno provisional, el AKRSP J une toile de fond basée sur sa both future socio- debe adoptar una perspectiva première vision, mais tendue economic surveys and más amplia, inspirada en el au-delà de la création d'orga- microfinance monitoring concepto anterior de crea- nisations villageoises durables. to improve understand- cin y sostenimiento de orga- n ing of gender issues. nizaciones rurales, pero en Recommandations • Carefully monitor the un contexto mucho más Les avantages comparatifs du poverty pilot to test different amplio. PARAK portent surtout sur la facili- levels of staff and resource tation communautaire, la gestion du intensity so that relative poverty Recomendaciones programme, le développement des alleviation efficiency in compari- Las ventajas comparativas del ressources humaines au niveau son with the core program can AKRSP consisten principalmente en villageois, le lien entre les compé- be evaluated. la facilitaciôn comunitaria, la ges- tences professionnelles et les com- tiôn de programas, el desarrollo de pétences communautaires locales, Increase institutional capacity los recursos humanos en las aldeas, les compétences analytiques en to sustain development for la conexiôn entre capacidad profe- matière de suivi et d'évaluation, la the long term through sional y capacidad comunitaria, los politique dans une certaine mesure partnerships. conocimientos analiticos relaciona- et, surtout, la capacité d'orchestrer dos con el seguimiento y la evalua- tous ces éléments. Ces avantages • Take the lead within the AKDN ción, las politicas -en cierto comparatifs peuvent être exploités in developing a coalition with sentido- y, por encima de todo, la par le biais d'une stratégie qui government. This coalition capacidad de "englobarlo todo". aborde les recommandations should aim to raise significantly Estas ventajas comparativas pueden suivantes government's development aprovecharse mediante una estrate- capacity in a specified period- gia que tenga en cuenta las siguien- Affiner l'approche en amélio- with an increasing role for the tes recomendaciones. rant les moyens de subsistance corporate sector and other rurale dans les ZNC. NGOs. (A workshop of poten- Ajustar el planteamiento para • Prêter attention aux pauvres et tial partners leading to working mejorar los medios de vida de las aux femmes dans les nouvelles committees would be one way ZSC rurales. organisations. La réorientation to start.) • Garantizar la atenciôn a los vers une approche davantage • Agree and implement a fully pobres y las mujeres en las nue- pluraliste et basée sur les fonc- coordinated approach to devel- vas organizaciones. La orientaciôn tions des organisations commu- opment in the NAC with the hacia un concepto de organiza- nautaires représente une other organizations in the ciôn comunitaria más pluralista y évolution appropriée et inévita- AKDN, including looking at basado en las funciones es una ble, mais elle comporte des ris- opportunities for cost sharing. evoluciôn adecuada e inevitable, ques au niveau des populations Strongly support the incipient pero conlleva ciertos riesgos para vulnérables. shift to devolution through los grupos vulnerables. • Rester entièrement engagé dans capacity building (especially • Mantener plenamente el compro- le microfiancement. Nonobstant for women), policy work, and miso con el microfinanciamiento. la nouvelle banque de microfi- a joint monitoring partnership A pesar de contar con un nuevo nancement, le PARAK devrait with government. Monitoring banco de microfinanciamiento, assurer la mise en place : a) would feed back as the process el AKRSP debería ofrecer i) una d'une stratégie de microfinance- moves forward. It would estrategia continuada y explicita ment explicite visant en particu- include monitoring and evalua- de microfinanciamiento, que lier à atteindre l'objectif de tion capacity development for abarque en particular el objetivo pauvreté ; b) des activités de government. de la pobreza; ii) coordinaciôn coordination sur le terrain avec xxv The Next Ascent: An Evaluation of the Aga Khan Rural Support Program, Pakistan Maximize the leverage of sobre el terreno con el la banque et le maintien the acquired AKRSP banco y mantenimiento des liens importants entre skills both within Pak- de vinculos importantes le microfinancement et istan and externally. entre el microfinancia- les autres activités du miento y otras actividades PARAK ; et c) d'un accord Develop an explicit del programa AKRSP, y bien articulé sur la super- strategy to guide the iii) un claro acuerdo vision des nouveaux prêts AKRSP's approach to sobre la forma en que el internes à haut risque par sharing its knowledge both nuevo banco supervisará, con la nouvelle banque avec le con- inside and outside Pakistan, set apoyo del AKRSP, los nuevos cours du PARAK. goals, and monitor achieve- préstamos internos, que presen- • Améliorer l'efficacité à travers la ments as with any other pro- tan un alto nivel de riesgo. différentiation de l'appui selon gram component. • Mejorar la eficiencia mediante la les besoins communautaires indi- • Become leaders in Pakistan on diferenciación del apoyo de viduels - plus d'appui aux pau- the gender issue. Look at com- acuerdo con las necesidades vres communautés vulnérables, parisons with other programs comunitarias individuales -más moins d'appui aux communautés in the area of gender. Appoint en favor de los pobres, más matures. Ceci demandera des a leader for the women's pro- para las comunidades vulnera- concertations au niveau du vil- gram at a senior level and bles y menos para las comuni- lage, l'élaboration d'un système experiment with a gradual shift dades maduras. Para ello habria de classification et des directives away from the separate que entablar consultas en las à l'usage du personnel sur les women's and men's organiza- aldeas, elaborar un sistema de critères de gradation et sur les tions, and toward the inclusion clasificación y ofrecer al perso- procédures. of women in overall commu- nal orientaciones sobre los crite- • Accroître le taux de recouvre- nity decisionmaking. The Dehi rios y procedimientos de ment des coûts, examiner la Councils, depending on how graduaciôn. stratégie relative aux dons/sub- they evolve, may present an • Aumentar la recuperaciôn de ventions, et préparer des critères opportunity for this through costos, examinar la estrategia de et des directives pour assurer their women's membership. donaciones/subsidios y preparar l'optimisation de l'impact des criterios y orientaciones para dons/subventions. Donors need to standardize garantizar el máximo efecto de • Pour la collecte des données, monitoring and evaluation for- las donaciones y subsidios. tenir mieux compte de la sexos- mats and processes and accept • Aumentar la atención a las dife- pécificité tant lors des enquêtes multi-donor evaluation reports. rencias entre los sexos en la socioéconomiques que du suivi recopilación de datos tanto en du microfinancement, afin de A large amount of highly skilled - las futuras encuestas socioeconô- mieux comprendre la probléma- AKRSP staff time is taken up try- micas como en la supervisiôn tique hommes-femmes. ing to meet different requirements del microfinanciamiento, con el • Surveiller minutieusement le pro- such as donor-specific log-frame fin de Ilegar a una mejor com- jet pilote sur la pauvreté afin de formats. These resources could prensión de esas cuestiones. tester les divers niveaux de per- be better spent pursuing impor- • Supervisar atentamente la expe- sonnel et l'intensité des ressour- tant evaluative questions such as riencia piloto sobre la lucha con- ces et d'évaluer l'efficacité de la the optimal strategy for cost- tra la pobreza con el fin de réduction de la pauvreté par rap- effectiveness in poverty allevia- comprobar los diferentes niveles port au programme de base. tion or monitoring and giving de dotación de personal y los feedback to government on the recursos para poder evaluar la Augmenter la capacité institu- evolution of Dehi Councils. eficiencia relativa en el alivio de tionnelle à maintenir le dévelop- la pobreza, en comparaciôn con pement dans le long terme à el programa básico. travers les partenariats. Xxvi Executive Summary Aumentar la capacidad ins- Prendre la tête de file du titucional para respaldar el groupe RDAK pour établir desarrollo a más largo une coalition avec le gou- plazo mediante relaciones vernement. Cette coalition de asociación. devrait tendre à rehausser • Tomar. la iniciativa dentro, sensiblement la capacité de la AKDN para estable- gouvernementale pendant cer una coalición con el une période déterminée gobierno. Esa coaliciôn deberia - le secteur des entreprises et tratar de aumentar significativa- d'autres ONG joueraient un plus mente la capacidad gubernamen- grand rôle. (On pourrait com- tal de desarrollo en un periodo mencer par organiser un atelier previamente especificado -con de partenaires potentiels qui una intervenciôn creciente de las conduirait à l'établissement de empresas y otras ONG (una · comités de travail.) manera de comenzar sería orga- • Convenir d'une approche du nizar un taller de posibles aso- développement dans les ZNC et ciados, que podria dar lugar a l'exécuter de manière bien coor- comités de trabajo). donnée, y compris la recherche Aprobar y aplicar un concepto d'opportunités de partage des de desarrollo plenamente coordi- coûts. Appuyer à ses débuts la nado en las ZSC, junto con otras réorientation vers le désengage- organizaciones de la AKDN, Io ment à travers le renforcement que supondria también conside- des capacités (des femmes en par- rar las oportunidades de.distribu- ticulier), le travail d'élaboration ciôn de costos. Debería apoyarse des politiques et un partenariat de decididamente el nuevo despla- suivi conjoint avec le gouverne- zan-ento hacia la delegaciôn de ment. Le suivi permettrait de ren- responsabilidades mediante el dre compte du déroulement du fortalecimiento de la capacidad processus. Il comprendrait le (sobre todo para la mujer), los développement de la capacité estudios sobre politicas y una gouvernementale en matière de asociación con el gobierno para suivi et d'évaluation. las actividades de seguimiento. Los resultados de este segui- Maximiser le développement des miento deberían aplicarse a compétences du PARAK acquises medida que avance el proceso. aussi bien au Pakistan qu'à En este contexto deberia l'extérieur. incluirse el desarrollo de la capa- • Élaborer une stratégie explicite cidad de seguimiento y evalua- guidant l'approche du PARAK en ciôn por parte del gobierno. ce qui concerne le partage de ses connaissances aussi bien au Incrementar el efecto multiplica- Pakistan qu'en dehors, établir les dor de las técnicas adquiridas objectifs et suivre les réalisations por el AKRSP tanto dentro de comme pour tout autre compo- Pakistán como en el exterior. sante d'un programme. • Formular una estrategia explicita • Devenir les leaders de la problé- para orientar al AKRSP a com- matique hommes-femmes au partir sus conocimientos tanto Pakistan. Nommer un leader de xxvii The Next Ascent: An Evaluation of the Aga Khan Rural Support Program, Pakistan dentro como fuera de niveau supérieur pour le Pakistán, fijar objetivos y programme des femmes - supervisar los logros, et tester une réorientation como cualquier otro com- graduelle des organisa- ponente del programa. tions séparées de femmes Convertirse en pioneros et d'hommes vers l'inclu- de la defensa de la mujer sion des femmes dans le en Pakistán. Buscar com- processus général de paraciones con otros programas prise de décisions communautai- en lo que se refiere a la relación res. Selon la façon dont ils évo- entre el hombre y la mujer; nom- luent, les Conseils Dehi brar un dirigente de rango supe- pourraient présenter une oppor- rior para el programa en favor tunité á ce sujet á travers leurs de la mujer y experimentar con membres féminins. un abandono gradual de las organizaciones separadas para Recommander aux donateurs de hombres y mujeres, en favor de normaliser les formats et pro- la inclusión de estas últimas en cessus de suivi et d'évaluation, et los procesos generales de toma accepter les rapports d'évalua- de decisiones de la comunidad. tion des multi-donateurs. Los consejos de Dehi, según Le personnel hautement qualifié du cómo evolucionen, pueden ofre- PARAK passe une grande partie de cer una oportunidad para ello a son temps á essayer de satisfaire les través de la participación de las diverses exigences, comme par mujeres como miembros. exemple les formats d'enregistre- ment á cadre des organismes dona- Los donantes deben uniformar teurs particuliers. Ces ressources los formatos y procesos de pourraient étre plus judicieusement seguimiento y evaluación y acep- utilisées en essayant de répondre á tar informes de evaluación de des questions évaluatives importan- varios donantes. tes telles que la stratégie optimale • Un elevado número de emplea- ou le suivi de la réduction de la dos especializados del AKRSP pauvreté efficace par rapport au deben dedicar su tiempo a resol- coût, ou encore le compte rendu au ver diferentes trámites, como los gouvernement de l'évolution des formatos del marco lógico espe- Conseils Dehi. cíficos de cada donante. Estos recursos podrían emplearse más provechosamente tratando de resolver cuestiones importantes de evaluación, como la estrategia óptima para una mayor eficacia en función de los costos en la reducción de la pobreza o la supervisión e intercambio de opiniones con el gobierno sobre la evolución de los consejos de Dehi. xxviii ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS AKCS Aga Khan Cultural Service AKDN Aga Khan Development Network AKES Aga Khan Education Service AKHS Aga Khan Health Service AKF Aga Khan Foundation AKRSP Aga Khan Rural Support Program AKRSP IV Aga Khan Rural Support Program, Phase IV BACIP Building and Construction Improvement Program CAS Country Assistance Strategy CIMMYT Centro Internacional para Mejoramiento de Maiz y Trigo (International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center) DFID Department for International Development (U.K.) ECP Enterprise Credit Program ERR Economic rate of return FAG Food and Agriculure Organization FMU Field Management Unit GBTI Ghaza Barotha Taragiati Idara ICIMOD International Center for Integrated Mountain Development IDG International Development Goal IFAD International Fund for Agricultural Development IUCN International Union for the Conservation of Nature KARINA Karakoram Agricultural Research Institute for the Northern Areas LDO Local development association LSU Learning Support Unit MDGs Millennium Development Goals M&E Monitoring and evaluation MER Monitoring, Evaluation, and Research Section MIES Mountain Infrastructure Engineering Services MIS Management information system MLURI Macaulay Land Use Research Institute NAC Northern Areas and Chitral NARC National Agricultural Research Center NGO Nongovernmental organization NORAD Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation NRM Natural resource management NRSP National Rural Support Program OED Operations Evaluation Department, World Bank PAF Poverty Alleviation Fund PPB Participatory plant breeding PPI Productive physical infrastructure PRSP Punjab Rural Support Program PVS Participatory variety selection R&D Research and development RPM Regional program manager RPO Regional Program Office SAM Social accounting matrix xxix The Next Ascent: An Evaluation of the Aga Khan Rural Support Program, Pakistan SAPAP South Asia Poverty Alleviation Program SDI Subsidy Dependence Index SMS Safe minimum standards SRSC Sarhad Rural Support Corporation UNDP United Nations Development Program VO Village organization WASEP Water and Sanitation Education Program WO Women's organization WSO Women's social organizer WWF Worldwide Fund for Nature xxx Introduction The purpose of this evaluation was to assess the development out- come of both the full 18-year Aga Khan Rural Support Program (AKRSP) and the 5-year period since the last evaluation by the Operations Evaluation Department of the World Bank. The performance criteria that have been used in the evaluation are relevance, efficacy, efficiency, institutional development impact, and sustainability.1 The eval- uation, requested by the Aga Khan Foundation (AKF) and the AKRSP, focused on four program components: community organizations, infrastructure development, natural resource management, and microfinance. Given the timing-just before the next donor needed services for tackling problems of high funding cycle-the evaluation team was asked mountain areas." By 1986, the objective had be- to recommend future directions. come "a doubling of the (rural) per capita income over a period of 10 years." Later objectives state- AKRSP Program Objectives ments tended to focus on enhancing people's ca- The original 1981 program proposal included the pacity. Thus, the current mission statement is: "To following statement: "with a program intended enhance the capacity of the peoples of the to affect the development of a region, its time Northern Areas and Chitral to sustain and im- horizon cannot be limited to two or three years. prove the quality of their lives. In particular, di- On the other hand, a primary purpose of the versified, sustainable and equitable economic AKRSP should be to work itself out of a job."2 development will be promoted through build- Two years later, the first (1983) strategy paper ing up the competence and confidence of local articulated the program objectives as "to de- organizations/institutions and individuals, and velop an innovative replicable model by a small through the provision of economic resources and [nongovernmental organization] acting as a cat- opportunities." alyst of rural development through working It is evident that the trend in the objectives with local people to identify and appraise proj- statements has been away from both "working ect opportunities, to promote the provision of itself out of a job" and physical achievements, The Next Ascent: An Evaluation of the Aga Khan Rural Support Program, Pakistan and toward capacity building. The earlier focus institutions; rated intensity of AKRSP support; both of the AKRSP and the Aga Khan Develop- and rated relative strength of resource base. ment Network (AKDN, see box 1.1) as a whole The sample included one non-AKRSP village was in the Upper Hunza Valley-predominantly and one with very little activity. Ismaili communities. However, the intent from * The application of four semiformal, partly the outset was to serve all communities. quantitative, partly qualitative questionnaires on community organizations, infrastructure, Methods natural resource management, and microfi- The methods used in this evaluation consisted nance. The purpose was to ensure consistency of the following main elements: and coverage rather than to produce statisti- * Group and individual discussions in a sample cally significant analysis. The mission proce- of 24 villages (see list of villages in Annex F). dure within villages typically involved about These were purposively selected from a frame 90 minutes of discussion at a meeting of the developed by the AKRSP at the request of the full village, followed by splitting up for a fur- evaluation team to achieve a representative ther 90 minutes to pursue small group or in- spread of village types. The elements included dividual discussion, including discussion with region, district, Field Management Unit, and groups of women, and visits to infrastructure cropping zone (single-cropping, double- and natural resource management sites. cropping, transitional) locational data; reli- AKRSP staff were present for translation pur- gious sect; rated relative strength of village poses most of the time, although the team had AKRSP Operations and Their Institutional Box 1.1 Se i The AKRSP is a private, noncommunal (that is, supporting all re- structure investments have been sponsored, including larger ligious sects), nonprofit company established in 1982 by the Age schemes by clusters of VOs. Women's organizations are es- Khan Foundation. Its operations in the Northern Areas and Chi- tablished to serve the special needs of women. Training of vil- tral are funded by a consortium of bilateral and multilateral lagers has been an important element of the program. The donors with the objective of improving the quality of life of the savings and credit services are in the process of being devolved people. It supports economic and institutional development of to a new bank. local communities in collaboration with government, elected The Aga Khan Development Network (AKDN) is a world- bodies, and other development agencies. The major components wide concept spanning all the Aga Khan development activities. of the program are social organization, women's development, It comprises three main groups of activities-economic devel- natural resource management, development of physical infra- opment, social development, and culture. In Pakistan, the AKDN structure, human resource development, enterprise promotion, is generally taken to mean the AKRSP, Aga Khan Education Ser- and credit and savings services. The program reaches some vice (AKES); Aga Khan Health Service (AKHS); Aga Khan Build- 900,000 people in about 1,100 villages and, over the past5 years, ing and Construction Improvement Service (BACIP), the largest has had an annual budget of about US$6 million. (Annex D gives part of which is the Water and Sanitation Program (WASEP); Aga a timeline of main developments over the program period.) Khan Cultural Service (AKCS); and the Aga Khan University in The process at the village level typically has involved the Karachi. The Aga Khan Foundation (AKF) has primary responsi- formation of a village organization (VO) with a members' say- bility for the AKRSP, including helping to raise funds. AKF also ings program, technical help, and grant support for an initial assists the other agencies in fund raising. Some of the institu- physical infrastructure project chosen and constructed by the tions are very old: the AKHS was established in 1923 and the AKES VO (both as an incentive for community action and for its de- in 1946. The AKRSP commands an annual budget for development velopment impact), followed by support for improving agri- and operating costs of about Rs. 350 million, while the AKES has culture, livestock, and forestry productivity and credit services Rs. 90 million, the AKHS about Rs. 75 million, and WASEP about for mainly agricultural inputs. In recent years, second infra- Rs. 50 million. (Exchange rate in 2001 = Rs. 59: US$1.) 2 Introduction two members who spoke Urdu. The impres- tural Development (IFAD) and the India sion was of generally very open discussions AKRSP. with ranges of views expressed. * The use of industry standard comparators in * Review of the extensive literature, including microfinance. the reports of previous evaluation missions * A modest amount of further analysis of the and the report of the Joint Review Missions 1991 and 1997 socio-economic survey data, (see Annexes B and M), and literature that was mainly aimed at seeking further evidence on critical as well. attribution. * Discussions with government both at the cen- * The development of a "timeline" showing ter and in the Northern Areas and Chitral the main changes by program component (NAC), the Donor Liaison Group, the AKRSP since 1983. Board, other institutions, banks, members of * A workshop with AKR8P microfinance staff, the AKDN family, and nongovernmental or- conducted by the evaluation team. ganizations (NGOs) such as the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN). Findings of Previous Evaluations * An economic analysis drawn from case stud- Annex B outlines the recommendations of ies and data provided by the AKRSP. This was the three previous OED evaluations and Annex backed up by questions in villages visited on M the recommendations of the main recent land value changes. The natural resource donor evaluations. Overall, adoption of those rec- management coefficients used were reviewed ommendations has been partial. A number of by two specialists outside the AKRSP and recommendations have been repeated several outside the evaluation team. times in some form and feature again in this eval- * The application of an institutional survey to uation. These include the need to strengthen staff in the AKRSP at grade 4 and above to marketing linkages, the farm systems recom- assess staff attitudes toward AKRSP goals; mendations in their various forms, the need to perceptions on competence, management address productive packages for women, and the processes, and procedures; motivation; re- need for improved linkages with other agencies. cruitment practices; and management open- Reasons for the failure to adopt earlier recom- ness. This survey was conducted using sealed mendations include concerns about cost- envelopes to protect anonymity. effectiveness, skill gaps (for example, in the * A tabulation of cost comparators with other gender area), donor funding constraints, the rural development programs, including dis- difficulty of finding productive opportunities cussions with the Pakistan National Rural and accessing markets in such a challenging Support Program and exchange of informa- area, and limited specificity of the recommen- tion with the International Fund for Agricul- dations themselves. 3 Overall Program Assessment he purpose of this section is to (i) provide an overall assessment of the program focusing on relevance, efficacy, and efficiency; (ii) place the AKRSP in the context of the institutional performance of the NAC as a whole; and (iii) evaluate the AKRSP as an organization. The focus is on evaluating achievements. Recommendations to address the problems with a changing external environment. Success- identified are developed in Chapter 5, "Future ful social and economic development have given Directions." rise to growing demands for improved services, and the capacity to articulate those demands is Relevance increasing pressure on both the AKRSP and gov- Overall, the AKRSP's achievement has been ernment. Moves within the Aga Khan Develop- remarkable. It has remained substantially relevant ment Network (AKDN) in Pakistan to enhance to the overall goals of development in Pakistan, coordination and the expansion of mandates of to the changing needs of the Northern Areas and those members with less coverage beyond the Chitral (NAC), and to the objectives and mission Ismaili community offer new strategic challenges. statements as they have evolved. The AKRSP has Funding prospects have been shrinking, and sought to reduce poverty and improve peoples' some donors have been pressing for reductions lives through broad-based rural development in in scale and greater differentiation aimed at oper- an area where income levels are still below the ational efficiency. If the AKRSP is to maintain its poverty target set in the Millennium Development relevance and improve its development per- Goals (MDGs).' (By latest World Bank estimates, formance, it must respond successfully to these the poverty incidence in the rural areas is 37.9 per- changing circumstances. cent for the Northern Areas and 46.5 percent for North West Frontier Province, placing both near The AKRSPs Comparative Advantage the bottom of the Pakistan province/region rank- Within Pakistan and the NAC, the AKRSP's com- ing.2) However, there is now some danger of parative advantage is rooted in its managerial reduced relevance arising, not so much from fail- expertise; its educated, skilled staff, mostly drawn ures by the AKRSP as from its successes, combined from all over the program area; the knowledge 5 The Next Ascent: An Evaluation of the Aga Khan Rural Support Program, Pakistan and contacts necessary for it to draw on outside The AKRSP and Government expertise; its creativity in development and social Although the AKRSP has an overwhelming pres- organization; its 20 years of intensive experience; ence in rural parts of the Northern Areas, it can and its ability to mobilize funds. From the peo- never become a viable alternative to government ples' perspective, the AKRSP is the most com- with its far broader responsibilities. However, in petent development agent in the NAC. The team rural development, the AKRSP has effectively recorded frequent and eloquent testimony to this substituted for government.' The program effect at many villages throughout the NAC. embraces 98 percent of villages, where it pro- This is recognized by government, which vides many services usually supplied by gov- recently called on the AKRSP to help set up Dehi ernment agencies (see Annex J, table J.1 for Councils as a first stage in the reform of local details of program coverage and achievements). government.3 The numerous village organizations For the most part, ordinary people regard the fostered by the AKRSP (Annex J, table J.4) are AKRSP with respect and gratitude as a guide and now the foundation for other agencies' work, supporter, particularly in the Northern Areas, including government, the International Union where the population lives under special polit- for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN), and ical arrangements (box 2.1). In urban areas, in other members of the AKDN. such aspects of development as large infra- Within the AKDN, the AKRSP's comparative structure, and in policymaking, the AKRSP's advantage lies in its rural focus, the goodwill it influence is modest.5 commands within government and into the far- The evaluation team found no evidence of thest corners of the region, and its demonstrated government activity to compare with the range, organizational and managerial talents. More- depth, and quality of the AKRSP's rural activi- over, the AKRSP has more experience than most ties. Villagers commonly claim that they have had other members of the AKDN in working with no contact with government agricultural officials non-Ismaili communities. It is also many times for many years. Government officials themselves larger, measured by budgetary resources or geo- have difficulty remembering when they last graphic coverage, than any of the other AKDN engaged in fieldwork, having little means or members in Pakistan. These strengths are rec- incentive to leave their stations. Department of ognized within the AKDN. However, recognition Agriculture staff throughout the NAC are numer- does not translate into a ready willingness to ous but ineffective. Over many years, a lack of allow the AKRSP to lead, much less dominate, funds for operations, absence of effective pro- the AKDN. The AKES and AKHS (see box 1.1) grams, outmoded procedures, and ineffective both have much longer traditions of working in management have demoralized the public sec- Pakistan than the AKRSP does, and through tor workforce.6 their separate governing boards they have given Overall, the AKRSP operates in a strongly sup- rise to well-established ideas and procedures, and portive environment, drawing on a fund of gov- not a little resistance to change. ernment goodwill based on its performance (Joint Box 2.1 Unique Political Status of the Northern A r e a s To assess the challenges of the AKRSP it is necessary to under- Areas and a Legislative Council, headed by a federally appointed stand that the Northern Areas (although not Chitral, which is part chief executive and consisting of 24 locally elected members of North West Frontier Province) are militarily sensitive and who elect a deputy chief executive. The people of the Northern politically different from the rest of Pakistan. For historical rea- Areas do not elect members to Pakistan's National Assembly, nor sons it is a federally administered area under the jurisdiction of are they directly taxed, but they are provided a number of Pakistan's Federal Minister of Kashmir Affairs and Northern subsidies. 6 Overall Program Assessment Review Mission 1999, p. 76). But in parts of the period, it seems clear that objectives for income, NAC government establishment, the AKRSP is and probably living standards as well, were regarded with a mixture of admiration, envy, and achieved. The extent to which this is attributa- even suspicion, usually because of its roots in the ble to the AKRSP is less clear. While the origi- Ismaili community. This would be a handicap if nal objectives did not claim that the anticipated it were not for the positive view of the AKRSP held income increases must be wholly attributable to by the most senior government officials who, rec- the AKRSP (and there was probably an implicit ognizing their own limited capacity, see the AKRSP assumption that some would not be), there is as complementing government activities.' The some evidence from the AKRSP socio-economic AKRSP also commands respect and admiration in surveys that about one-third is attributable, government circles in Islamabad, where the intel- although there remain methodological prob- lectual debt owed to the AKRSP and its founders lems. Based on the economic analysis, the causal is freely acknowledged at the very highest levels. linkages are probably mainly through impacts of Throughout government, however, there is a infrastructure and natural resource management growing realization that it can no longer effectively (NRM) interventions on net farm incomes. In abdicate its responsibility in the NAC to the AKRSP qualitative support of this finding, increased and the AKDN, that it must also become more incomes substantially attributable to the AKRSP responsive to the demands of communities. This and greatly increased land values from infra- change of circumstances is creating new oppor- structure development were widely noted by vil- tunities and challenges for the AKRSP in its rela- lagers during mission field visits. tionship with government. With respect to the enhancing capacity objec- tives, the program appears to have been very effec- Efficacy tive for men, but less so for women. Generally Efficacy of the program is rated fully satisfactory, impressive community organizations have been in most respects highly satisfactory, but there created, at least for men (Annex J, tables J.1, J.3, have been some areas of weakness. (The extent and J.4), and there has been a substantial level to which the AKRSP has been an effective insti- of training of individuals in a wide range of skills tution-a connected but different question-is (Annex J, tables J. 10 and J. 11). Village capacity covered later under the section on institutional to manage affairs and command resources is development.) For physical achievements, see widely acknowledged within the villages to have Annex J, tables J.1 to J.11. been substantially enhanced by AKRSP support. The main objectives over the program period, With respect to the objective of economic expressed in evolving but largely consistent growth, progress has been quite strong in agri- objectives or mission statements, can be sum- culture, livestock, and forestry, including the marized as: increasing living standards and creation of about 48,000 hectares of new cul- incomes, enhancing people's capacity through the tivable land-about a one-third increase in cul- development of skills and community organiza- tivable land area-and intensification of tions, the provision of economic growth oppor- production on existing land. (Annex J, table J.5, tunity, program replicability, and the oft-quoted but note some slowing in recent years, partly due "working itself out of a job" objective. How does to previous adoption.) But there has been less the program rate against these objectives? progress outside agriculture. However, it is With respect to living standards and incomes apparent that the AKRSP's original mandate was objectives, average farm household incomes mainly in the rural economy, especially agri- have certainly more than doubled. In real terms, cultural production, such that any reach by the between 1991 and 1997 alone they more than program beyond rural-based production may doubled, except in the more challenging Astore be reasonably considered a bonus. area. While some of these gains may not have With respect to the objective of replicability, been sustained, and while the trend probably achievement has been very impressive, with was not so strongly evident in the pre-1991 many programs within Pakistan-including the 7 The Next Ascent: An Evaluation of the Aga Khan Rural Support Program, Pakistan large National Rural Support Program (NRSP) and to hospitals; positive environmental externali- the current World Bank-supported Poverty Alle- ties, for example through re-afforestation, but viation Project-drawing their inspiration and some environmental negatives also; benefits design substantially from the AKRSP experi- from marketing support in improved prices; ence. (The issue of replicability is discussed benefits in the area of non-farm employment; more fully below.) support to government in animal disease out- With respect to the objective of "working breaks; support related to tourism and bio- itself out of a job, " efficacy has been modest to diversity, such as the initial support for the negligible, but the relevance of this finding is IUCN program; broader institutional impacts, questionable. The evaluation team supports the such as increasing service capacity for hydels conclusions of some earlier evaluations that in Chitral and growth of the related hydel man- question the realism of that original objective, ufacturing and service industries; and, more at least over the period proposed. Moreover, the generally, increased social capital, some reflected objective was later dropped, or at least played in benefits listed above, and others additional. down. Nevertheless, there have been weak- The comparatively high per-household cost nesses in the extent to which the AKRSP has of the program appears to be justified by the ben- pursued more differentiated support at the com- efits. Quantifying within the list above only the munity level that would have used resources infrastructure and natural resource management more efficiently. benefits (which include NRM input-generated benefits triggered by microfinance), the esti- Efficiency mated economic rate of return (ERR) from investments between 1982 and 1999 calculated Economic Rate of Return by the mission is in the range of 16 to 24 per- The economic analysis was undertaken jointly cent (Annex H). However, alternative and very with the AKRSP, but with the evaluation team plausible scenarios go much higher, and the commenting on and, where necessary, adjust- true ERR would be greater in any scenario if all ing methodology and reviewing assumptions. unquantifiable benefits could be added. Briefly, The benefits of the AKRSP program are partic- the benefit stream leading to the 16 percent is ularly difficult to quantify because of the range conservative and is obtained by taking the of benefit types and the difficulty of quantify- AKRSP's worst-case estimated net benefit streams ing many of them. They include benefits from for infrastructure, omitting one high outlier from the following (some of which, if added together, the case studies in each infrastructure type, would represent degrees of double-counting): adding the AKRSP's natural resource manage- infrastructure; natural resource management, ment net benefit estimate, but reducing that by including input supply; enterprise develop- 33 percent,8 and also attributing 5 percent of the ment; benefits for other local programs draw- estimated incremental non-farm income over ing on AKRSP experience, such as the NRSP; the period to AKRSP interventions. These net training impacts beyond those reflected directly benefits are then set against the AKRSP's total in such interventions as infrastructure and agri- costs. culture; lowering the operating costs and The purpose of taking the worst-case infra- improving efficacy for other AKDN institutions; structure scenario and reducing the NRM stream benefits accrued by or through government, for was to adjust somewhat for the optimistic example, in the recent support for training for assumptions identified in the AKRSP estimates Dehi Councils; benefits from microfinance- (although the NRM productivity coefficients some reflected in natural resource manage- were based on Food and Agriculture Organiza- ment benefits, some lying elsewhere, as in tion [FAOI estimates) but, more important, to health benefits arising from improved diets and allow for some "without project" benefits. The consumption loans; reduced loss of life or "without project" scenario is particularly difficult improved health through improved road access to model in this case. First, the area, being a 8 Overall Program Assessment desert, has virtually zero production when not 1996 to 2000 period, but very few of these irrigated. Second, NRM inputs such as the would have been in such a challenging area.) improved varieties provided through the AKRSP are unlikely to have been obtained in significant The Problem of Attribution quantities through any other means. Notwithstanding the indicative economic analy- Estimating the benefit stream using a differ- sis that provides part of the efficiency story, ent approach, through estimates of aggregate attribution of the AKRSP's impact on overall income increases over the program period and growth is still difficult to establish through the attributing 10 percent of net farm income analysis of survey data. The AKRSP has now increases to the AKRSP, plus the same 5 percent spread to almost every corner of the NAC, rul- of non-farm income, gives a much higher ERR ing out the collection of comparable "with and of 33 percent. The analysis suggests that one without" data. Benchmark studies were not con- needs to attribute only about 9 percent of the ducted before the AKRSP began work. Moreover, average estimated incremental net farm benefits even if evidence of change were available, it of participating households (excluding off-farm would still be necessary to separate the effects benefits) to the AKRSP up to the year 2010 to of the AKRSP from those of government and achieve an ERR that approximately equals the other players. These cannot be lightly discounted, opportunity cost of capital. However, this eco- as they include the construction of the Karako- nomic analysis should be regarded as partial and ram Highway and substantial commodity and indicative, and interpreted with great care, even power subsidies, as well as the consequences of though it is based on survey evidence, infra- extensive military investment. structure case studies, other field investigations, Nevertheless, there is much anecdotal evi- and technology innovation models. dence of the economic benefits of AKRSP pro- The NRM approach captures benefits only grams. Villagers often estimated that in the past from infrastructure and natural resource man- five years, their incomes had increased (by 10 agement and there are a number of uncertain- percent, 20 percent-and in some cases by 50 ties about data and assumptions. With respect percent) due to AKRSP interventions. One group to irrigation infrastructure, there is some com- of villagers explained that deaths, especially fort that the models may not be too optimistic deaths of women in childbirth, which had been because the mission obtained estimates from particularly high in their area, have been much farmers for increases in land values from irri- reduced by the completion of their access road. gation that were significantly higher in real Now they can get to the hospital in two hours terms than those found by the AKRSP case rather than two days. studies. Moreover, these capitalized land values Evidence of substantial increases in per capita were found to match the projected production incomes and expenditure in the NAC comes net benefit streams quite well, suggesting that from household surveys conducted by the farmers have a good appreciation of the value AKRSP's Monitoring and Evaluation Section. of land in relation to future income-generating Between 1991 and 1997, the latest year of sur- capacity. vey, real incomes per capita rose by about 2.6 The lower 16 percent ERR case is moderately times, although the changes before and after this sensitive to cost and benefit changes, but, as period were probably much more modest. But, noted above, this case is conservatively esti- for the reasons noted earlier, income changes mated. In the higher ERR scenarios, in the range cannot be conclusively or wholly attributed to of 24 to 33 percent, sensitivity is lower. ERRs in AKRSP interventions. these ranges are well above the opportunity In an attempt to explore this issue, a modest cost of capital-assumed, for Pakistan, to be 12 amount of further analysis was carried out by a percent. (As a comparison, the average for World mission consultant on the 1991 and 1997 AKRSP Bank-financed agriculture projects, where such farm household' income expenditure surveys.9 analysis was attempted, was 22 percent over the The surveys were found to be generally of high 9 The Next Ascent: An Evaluation of the Aga Khan Rural Support Program, Pakistan quality-an evaluative finding in itself. The con- although forestry income growth appears to sultant was able to replicate many of the results be negatively affected by the presence of a from the data files. Strengths include the extent VO. This possibly arises from village organ- of detail and level of disaggregation in the col- izations inducing more careful management lection of data on costs, output, and values by of forest resources-observed by the mis- crops. Weaknesses include the relatively small sion--thus lowering short-term forest incomes number of questions on non-farm income, which for substantial longer-term benefit. represents a substantial share of total income, * A major source of income growth, at least for and lack of recording of consumption from own the land-poor households, is non-farm activity. production. There were some problems in track- * With respect to Astore, an area of particular ing the coding. Main findings, which were quite concern, exploration of attribution is even robust, include the following: more difficult. There were no VOs in Astore * With respect to attribution, while, as noted, in the 1991 survey, so comparisons seeking there are almost insuperable difficulties in attribution comparing income differentials the absence of "with" and "without" AKRSP between VO and non-VO at the early stage support and "before" and "after" AKRSP of the program with VO and non-VO differ- control areas, the data suggests that total entials at the later stage are not possible, earnings growth in villages with village organ- although the VO/non-VO difference in Astore izations is about one-third higher than those in 1997 (which may reflect both selection without, possibly with a stronger effect on and treatment) is comparable to that in other land-poor households than land-rich house- regions. In the absence of good measures of holds. This last finding, however, was gen- infrastructure, it is also difficult to demonstrate erally true in percentage terms but not always the impact of poor infrastructure in Astore, in absolute terms, and the differences were although there is some evidence of lower only weakly significant. However, there was initial fruit income and fruit income growth no significant effect of being a village organ- in Astore, which could partly reflect trans- ization (VO) household per se. This is portation problems. probably because-as observed by the mis- sion-benefits tend to spread to all village Recommendations by the consultant for future households, not simply VO members. In eco- surveys include: better recording of consump- nomic terms, there are free riders. tion from household own stocks, including con- * There is not much higher household income sumption items such as schooling and clothing; under double-cropping than single-cropping, recording of gender assignable goods such as particularly in 1991. This is probably partly women's clothing, which would help to indicate because land holdings in double-cropped intrahousehold allocation; dates of VO estab- areas are smaller, but also that length of grow- lishment and other local institutions and their ing season and fertility may be more the areas of action; dates of provision of public explanatory variables than simply the num- goods (roads, schools, health centers, water ber of harvestable crops squeezed in. resources); and distance to markets. In general, * The decline found in the surveys in house- future data collection in both surveys and mon- hold expenditures is probably not of concern, itoring and evaluation (M&E) warrant more since it shows a decline in total food expen- attention to gender. ditures, particularly fruit. With the rise in pro- duction, this probably suggests that fruit Comparative Cost-Effectiveness consumption has increasingly been coming Comparing the AKRSP's costs with those of from own production. similar organizations reveals another aspect of * Growth in livestock income appears to be at efficiency. The relevant data, summarized in least partly attributable to the support pro- Annex C, show that the AKRSP incurs total vided to the community organizations, costs per beneficiary that, on a 5-year basis, 10 Overall Program Assessment fall within the range of costs incurred by com- Bank OED study of social funds (World Bank parable projects. AKRSP total costs per house- 2002), comparable data are available in very few hold, including both investment and operating cases, given differences in benefits. However, costs, are almost exactly the same as those of at about US$40 per household annually, the the average for the International Fund for Agri- AKRSP is at the top end of the range. cultural Development (IFAD), which special- izes in supporting community-based programs Cost Trends Over Time for the rural poor. However, the AKRSP has been The balance of costs has changed over time, as operating for a much longer period than most shown in figure 2.1, but it is not easy to draw donor-funded projects. Consequently, on a full- efficiency conclusions from this. Operating cost program-period basis, regardless of program as a percentage of total cost has risen margin- length, total costs per beneficiary are high com- ally, from a little below 30 percent in the first pared with typically shorter programs. two years to a little above 35 percent in the most While it might seem justified to consider the recent two years, but with a peak of nearly 50 time variable on the grounds that, for equity rea- percent in 1991. (Operating costs, as defined sons, poor households should only receive a cer- here, include capital costs for operation other tain lifetime level of support, it could also be than the program investments, salaries and con- argued that very few 5-year donor projects rep- sultancies, travel, administration, office mainte- resent the only external support that those nance, and vehicle operation. Total costs, as households have received over, say, a 20-year used in figure 2.1, include the disbursement fig- period. Operating costs are much more difficult ures for credit rather than the net credit fig- to compare. As concluded in a recent World ures.) The largest jump in costs was very early Expenditure Categories as a Percentage of Total 50- FD 40 '6 20 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 10 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0- 1982-83 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Year 0 Operating cost -l- Research/survey/demonstration - - Salaries/consultancies - - Infrastructure A Training C.11 The Next Ascent: An Evaluation of the Aga Khan Rural Support Program, Pakistan in the program, from 1983 to about 1988, with ture projects funded, and 50 percent of credit dis- an almost flat trend since that time (Annex J, table bursed-the latter based on effective demand J. 15). This increase occurred at a time of sub- with no restrictions. Given the early focus on stantial program expansion, not only with respect Gilgit, which has a larger share of Ismaili pop- to number of villages, but also to breadth of com- ulation than Chitral or Baltistan (which has vir- ponent coverage. The growth from the approx- tually no Ismaili population), and given the imately 15,000 households served in 1982/83 to initial reluctance to partner with the AKRSP by the approximately 95,000 served currently has some non-Ismaili villages, the overall balance at involved going into increasingly challenging this stage does not seem to represent strong evi- and remote locations. The substantial operating dence of a sectarian bias in meeting demand. cost increase in 1999 is attributable to the pur- Recently, however, the AKRSP board has directed chase of all the vehicles for the current phase that, in Chitral-where sectarian resistance to the in that one year. Operating costs per house- program has been strongest and the investment hold, in constant dollars, have been relatively flat to date in non-Ismaili villages has been lowest- since 1988. Infrastructure as a percentage of two-thirds of infrastructure investments should total cost has fallen from about 50 to about 20 go to non-Ismaili communities. This will be percent. Salaries as a percentage of operating cost helpful in improving the balance as well as in have risen. Training as a percentage of total addressing poverty. Based on a categorization costs has remained fairly steady and research, exercise of villages into poor and rich accord- survey, and demonstration declined until about ing to criteria that include land availability, live- 1998, then rose again to about the current 15 stock holdings, off-farm incomes, and access to percent. services, the percentage of poor Ismaili villages The increase in operating cost as a percent in the program area is estimated at 45 percent of total peaked in 1991, while the share of infra- and the percentage of poor non-Ismaili villages structure declined; this could be interpreted as is estimated at 55 percent. a period of relative inefficiency. The improve- ment after 1991 could be interpreted as a period Subsidy Policy and Cost Recovery of improved efficiency. But interpreting effi- At a broad level, the whole of the AKRSP's out- ciency from operating cost percentages in this lays constitute a subsidy to the rural economy type of an organization can be misleading. First, of the NAC. Thus, and following standard eco- an organization with a focus on community nomic principles justifying the public provision mobilization and capacity building (as opposed of economic goods, cost recovery should be a to investment activities) could be deemed highly key element in the AKRSP's development strat- efficient even when operating costs are 100 per- egy and financial plans. Within this broad cent of total costs, since all resources would be accounting, the pattern of targeted subsidies for operational activity. Second, although the and cost recovery for infrastructure, for some nat- AKRSP seems to be at the top of the range of ural resource inputs, for technical support, and costs per household among its comparators, the for training requires rationalization. ERR justifies that cost. With respect to subsidy The current grant structure appears to have costs, NRM subsidies have declined significantly evolved rather than to have been chosen explic- and there is now more focus on increasing vil- itly for efficiency, and grants are thus neither eco- lage contributions in the infrastructure program. nomically optimal nor based on a clear rationale. For example, one might expect to see lower Sectarian Allocation of Investments levels of subsidy for infrastructure with more AKRSP data indicate that the pattern of support private good content, such as irrigation and to date for the approximately 73 percent non- microhydel (small-scale hydropower),10 than for Ismaili population has been 67 percent of the infrastructure with more public good content, organizations (village organizations and women's such as roads. Yet the reality is the reverse. The organizations) formed, 66 percent of infrastruc- level of grant in 1998/99 averaged about 70 per- 12 Overall Program Assessment cent for irrigation and about 85 percent for micro- be met by other means, such as donor grants or hydel, compared with about 55 percent for roads. income from an endowment. With such estimates While subsidies for public goods or public in hand, the AKRSP should develop a clearly dif- good elements can be justified, the AKRSP should ferentiated and time-bound program of cost not generally subsidize private goods. There recovery and embed it firmly in its long-term would, however, be a case for such subsidy financing plan. under the following circumstances: (i) where there are substantial positive economic exter- Potential Gains in Efficiency from Increased nalities; (ii) on common property goods where Collaboration and Integration in the AKON community welfare is at stake;" (iii) where inter- The efficiency of the AKRSP and the AKDN ventions reduce poverty, provided they are well could be increased by a planned, structured, but targeted and do not create perverse incentives; gradual process of integration. Although mak- and (iv) where there are environmental exter- ing better use of physical facilities, plant, offices, nalities.12 But criteria need to be developed for and equipment offers potential gains through termination when the criteria are satisfied. reduced overheads, the most important gains A high grant element, and relatively the high- would come from coordinated and integrated est, on microhydels seems particularly difficult planning and implementation of schemes in to justify. Economic analysis shows that these which inputs are required from different AKDN projects have the highest rates of return. More- agencies. Additional benefits from synergy effects over, cost recovery in microhydel is less chal- of joint operations are likely to be substantial. lenging than with many other types of The AKDN has been slow to pursue this infrastructure. The question is less whether a sub- opportunity. At present each agency has sepa- sidy for microhydels is justified than whether rate offices, staff, vehicles, and equipment and those funds could be better used elsewhere, thinks and acts separately." "We operate in perhaps in the poorer, high-altitude villages for silos," said the general manager of one AKDN hard to obtain inputs or communications. In agency. Yet all depend on the social infrastruc- short, a review of subsidies measured against the ture created by the AKRSP, have similar devel- full cost of provision is needed, followed by the opment goals, operate in overlapping areas, formulation of a clear policy. and serve the same people. Generally the peo- However, a clearly articulated subsidy policy ple served do not distinguish between them. is only part of a full approach to cost recovery. Moreover, as incomes rise and communities Many of the AKRSP's activities beyond the pro- become more organized (largely in response to grams noted above are aimed at the provision AKRSP-led development), the demand for bet- of goods that are neither pure public goods nor ter health care, water supply, and education open-access goods. These quasi-public goods, rises. Other than some informal cooperation in such as training in villages, can be internalized the field, there is no mechanism within the and used for private gain. Under those circum- AKDN that allows a coordinated effort to meet stances, people are often willing to pay at least these demands. The AKRSP has an extensive part of the cost of provision. In formulating its presence and is actively engaged with village financing plans, the AKRSP should also take women-usually key players in matters of health this into account, as willingness to pay helps to and education. There is substantial opportunity signal the amount of such goods the AKRSP for mutually beneficial gains in efficiency. should supply, thereby helping to avoid waste. In a similar vein, the AKRSP should review Institutional Impact its entire program to identify all areas where full Addressed here are (i) the broader issue of the or partial cost recovery is possible. This exercise AKRSP's institutional impact on the NAG; (ii) the would help to arrive at a defensible estimate of narrower issue of the effectiveness of the AKRSP the share of the AKRSP's costs that cannot legit- as an organization; and (iii) the replicability of imately and practically be recovered and must the program. 13 The Next Ascent: An Evaluation of the Aga Khan Rural Support Program, Pakistan Overall, the AKRSP is an effective organiza- AKRSP's influence is to be found in the depend- tion, willing to change and evolve to achieve its ence of AKDN agencies on the social capital that development goals. (See the timeline in Annex the AKRSP has created over many years (Annex D showing major transition points by program J, tables J.1 to J.5). For example, a rough esti- component.) It learns from the past, reflects on mate by Aga Khan Health Service suggests that its future, establishes clear objectives, and their development costs would approximately deploys skilled staff equipped with adequate double in the absence of the village organiza- resources. It has profited greatly from long- tions established by the AKRSP. It follows that serving and consistently good general managers some fraction of the benefits resulting from the and key senior staff from its inception. As far as activities of other AKDN agencies is properly possible it has relied on recruiting senior staff attributable to the AKRSP. It is also reasonable from within the NAC, or has helped NAC staff to deduce that the AKRSP's success in working grow into more senior positions. This staffing his- with mixed and non-Ismaili communities helped tory will stand it in good stead as it confronts to bring about the broadened mandates of other the challenges of the future. AKDN institutions. Among other agencies in the NAC, such as the Institutional Impact of the AKRSP in the NAC IUCN, there is a strong appreciation of the As with all institutions, however, questions AKRSP's pioneering work in social organiza- remain. The AKRSP's impact may have come at tion, which has enabled newer and valleywide a broad institutional price. If the AKRSP were to environmental programs to make a much faster be wound up tomorrow, there would be a large start than would otherwise have been the case. institutional gap in the NAC, a gap that other agencies, and most important the district admin- Effectiveness of the AKRSP as an Organization istration, could not fill. While the AKRSP has con- Organizational Restructuring. To address future tributed positively to government initiatives in challenges, the AKRSP is rightly proposing to the NAC, and even sought to influence national adjust its current structure (see Annex K for cur- policy, overall, in the district administration, pri- rent structure) to align it more closely with vate sector development, and provincial and administrative districts. The evaluation team national policymaking forums, it is harder to dis- believes that these organizational changes must cern the AKRSP's handiwork.14 Yet it is success be guided by the substantial changes in direc- in these arenas that will largely determine the tion and strategic focus that the AKRSP is being course of the region's future progress. called upon to make, as well as by the new loca- AKDN organizations and government bodies tional realities provided by improved commu- have joint interests in responding effectively to nications through the Internet. This matter is people's needs. Like the AKRSP, these other discussed in greater detail in the "Future Direc- institutions have the skills and knowledge to help tions" section. build public sector capacity. Although it is likely An Institutional Survey. A survey of profes- that government's presence and program in the sional staff (see Annex E), carried out by the eval- rural areas of the NAC (especially its agricultural uation mission with substantial AKRSP assistance, presence) were slight before 1982, when the reveals the AKRSP to be an effective organiza- AKRSP was established, its presence and pro- tion with a healthy and broadly positive institu- gram are no greater now. Whether this is because tional climate. This is the first time that such a the AKRSP has been so efficient and effective that survey has been carried out within the AKRSP; it has displaced government's programs, giving partly for that reason, the results need to be government little incentive to act on its own interpreted with caution. Apart from a few weak- account, or whether this is independent of the nesses noted below, the survey reveals the AKRSP AKRSP's presence is difficulty to prove. to be an organization staffed by people with a Among AKDN agencies the institutional debt clear sense of purpose, a strong and shared to the AKRSP is freely stated. Here, however, the commitment to its mission, the competence to 14 Overall Program Assessment implement its programs, and a commitment to invests heavily in training. As a result, professional monitor and learn from their experiences. staff spend a high proportion of time in training- There was little variation in response by grade just over 10 percent in the Monitoring, Evaluation, (the survey covered grade 4 and above) or and Research Section, for example. Consultants, regional office-a strong indication of a highly technical assistance, and high-quality volunteers homogeneous institution. Although the AKRSP's are used judiciously. Staff turnover is modest direction (mission and methods) is well under- despite the remote location. stood, the perceived link between personal per- The proportion of women among the AKRSP's formance and institutional goals shows some professional staff (grade 4 and above) is about relative weakness. Staff clearly believe that the 14 percent, well below the AKRSP's target of 30 AKRSP has high standards of openness and percent by 2003. For an oranization that places equity, and share these values themselves. How- a high priority on gender equity, this is an unsat- ever, there are signs that these values are isfactorily low figure, suggesting that the AKRSP's unevenly practiced across the organization, sug- gender policy is not being pursued aggres- gesting the need for some improvement in per- sively."7 Implementation of the gender objectives formance. Women were more positive than men may also be uneven.18 Recruitment of women on this aspect. using conventional passive techniques is diffi- The aggregate response on the human cult and slow. Active recruiting and other tech- resource questions was lower than desirable, niques need to be used, and there must be a which indicates that staff think some human willingness to take risks, including hiring qual- resource policies are unfair and that women ified women from "down-country." are inadequately represented. The two concerns There are no women in the core team and no may well be interrelated. Similarly, although the one (male or female) in the core team is respon- group of questions on authority, responsibility, sible for the women's program. A woman should and accountability records a high score overall, be appointed.9 The present lack of leadership there are indications of possible unfairness in the leaves female staff with no one to talk to about application of accountability and in the report- issues they face. Some women also feel that their ing of bad news. Management should consider training and professional specialization is not an open, focused response, to this. being used, and they are there to support the The section on capability and competence women's program only. Last, there seems to be reflects well on the AKRSP, but there are con- a reluctance to have men working for the cerns about coordination and centralization. women's program. Most organizations have This may reflect current discussion about the role roughly equal numbers of men and women and performance of Field Management Units working on gender issues. While such a ratio (FMUs; see Organizational Charts, Annex K). It may still be unrealistic in Pakistan, greater exper- also probably reflects the tension inherent in imentation is in order. spreading the Core Office across two locations, Funding, Financial Management, and the Gilgit and Islamabad. There is some concern evi- Budget. The AKRSP's annual expenditure has dent about the AKRSP's tendency toward intro- grown from Rs. 14.6 million in 1983 to Rs. 346.8 spection, but otherwise the AKRSP is clearly million in 2001. The donor share, excluding the seen by staff to be a learning organization that Aga Khan Foundation, has grown from about 30 is open and outward-facing. percent to 95 percent. The increasing contribu- Human Resource Development. As the results tion of donors has allowed the AKRSP to expand of the institutional survey suggest, the AKRSP has and deepen its program more quickly than a competent and generally motivated staff. The would otherwise have been the case, but it has AKRSP recruits actively and offers competitive also created a risky dependency on external remuneration.'5 It also maintains close links with funding. Most donor programs are due to ter- several overseas academic institutions for both minate by the end of 2002 unless new agree- training and advisory purposes.'6 The AKRSP ments are reached. 15 The Next Ascent: An Evaluation of the Aga Khan Rural Support Program, Pakistan The AKRSP has a well-developed and well- should also be more attention to gathering data managed budget process targeted at the fulfill- relevant to the gender program. ment of its principal programs. The annual The M&E program should embrace more budget cycle begins in August with the issuance analytical tasks and experiment with newer eval- of budget guidelines to Field Management uative methods such as beneficiary assessment Units-the first level of accounting. From there and participatory evaluation. To achieve these the budget is discussed and built up through the aims, the M&E work program will need some regions and Core Offices into a consolidated restructuring to release resources. At present, whole, ready for the start of the ensuing fiscal progress and related reports for donors impose year. Once framed, a comprehensive budget a heavy burden with high opportunity costs. document is presented for board discussion. Donors should simplify their information This budget process is complicated, however, by demands and agree on a single annual report. the need to fully integrate, yet separately account Such a step would free resources for more inno- for, donor funds. vative M&E. The chart of accounts needs to be thoroughly The proposed Policy Unit would lead to other revamped to reflect the AKRSP's logframe of changes in M&E. A sharper separation of mon- inputs, outputs, and outcomes. The annual itoring from research and evaluation is sug- budget document and the process by which it gested for the unit. Reflective and analytical is generated is a major opportunity to adjust strat- tasks would be confined to the new unit, while egy in light of events and to plan tactics for the monitoring in the field would take on more of coming year. But this cannot be easily done a "progress-chasing" role. However, location is unless the budget is framed and analyzed in important. Experience in other countries suggests terms of outcomes and results. At present the that the relevance of evaluation, research, and budget structure and analysis, although very policy work in rural development declines as its competently done, is geared to expenditure contact with developments in the field weakens. analysis of programs and sections, reflecting an excessive concern with inputs rather than results- The Replicability of the AKRSP based management outputs. The evidence suggests that the AKRSP is replic- Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E). The Pol- able, but the parts more than the whole. Annex icy and Research Section handling M&E is well J, table J.17 lists eight rural support projects that managed, well staffed, valuable, and effective, to some extent owe their basic approach and but less so than it might be. Its reports are (sometimes) key staff to the AKRSP. These proj- important instruments of learning within the ects had established some 20,000 community organization and command a wide readership. organizations by 2000, about 5 times the num- The AKRSP has succeeded in hiring young, well- ber of AKRSP organizations. These conceptual qualified social scientists, supplemented by con- successors are now active in nearly 50 admin- sultants as needed. The unit occupies a key istrative districts. AKRSP experience and skills position in the Core Office, contributes sub- have been used in the National Rural Support stantively to strategy and policy formulation, Program (NRSP),20 the IFAD-supported Chitral and its manager is a trusted lieutenant of the gen- Agricultural Development Project, Khushhali eral manager. Overall, the quality of the M&E Bank, recent IUCN interventions, Sarhad Rural work is good. As noted earlier, an independent Support Corporation (SRSC), the Ghazi Barotha U.S. researcher from a reputable university Taragiati Idara (GBTI), the South Asia Poverty judged the quality of the data analysis in the 1997 Alleviation Program (SAPAP), the Punjab Rural Socio-economic Survey to be generally good. In Support Program (PRSP),21 and the activities of the view of the evaluation team, however, some other AKDN organizations. The design of the of the work lacks analytical depth and, like government's new national Poverty Alleviation almost all similar units, has failed to grapple with Program is also based on AKRSP experience. Sev- the fundamental problem of attribution. There eral other programs and projects are less closely 16 Overall Program Assessment modeled on the AKRSP but draw on its basic people it serves. As a non-profit organization, it concepts. Staff trained at the AKRSP have moved cannot trade for profit, and full cost recovery on to many parts of rural development in Pak- through commissions and service fees is not istan and beyond (see Annex A). Overseas, yet feasible, although significant moves in this apart from similar Aga Khan Foundation rural direction can be made. From the beginning, the programs in India, Kenya, Mozambique, and AKRSP has depended on funding by others, as Tajikistan, AKRSP ideas have spread far and intended. Table J.14 in Annex J shows the sub- influenced the design of rural development on stantial annual and cumulative contributions nearly every continent. None of the programs made by international donors, including the mentioned offer comprehensive economic analy- Aga Khan Foundation (AKF), originally the ses that attempt any attribution to the AKRSP. An largest contributor. But that has changed. Cumu- evaluation of the NRSP, conducted in 1998, is latively the AKF has now contributed about 13 largely positive in its assessment, but not quan- percent of the total. By 2001 its share of the titative (UNDP 1998). To the extent that these annual budget was down to 5 percent. schemes are successful, some part of their ben- Major donors, although gratified to have been efits is attributable to the AKRSP. Attributing associated with a successful venture, have been only a modest share of these benefits-were the showing signs of fatigue, although recent events data available-would greatly increase the rate may alter this. If nothing is done, the AKRSP may of return to the investment in the AKRSP. soon face financial problems. Were this to hap- pen, the AKRSP would be obliged to reduce Sustainability staffing and the depth and range of its work. The The AKRSP's sustainability can be evaluated extent to which other donors are waiting in the along two main dimensions: institutional sus- wings is unclear. tainability and financial sustainability. (The A task force examined the AKRSP's sustain- important broader institutional sustainability ability in 2000 and concluded that the program issue related to the vulnerability of the NAC to could not expect any increase in funding from an AKRSP withdrawal was discussed earlier.) its current six bilateral donors, but that other sources (bilateral, international, foundation, and Institutional Sustainability private philanthropy) could be developed (Task The policy and development ideas that the Force on Sustainability 2000, p. 33). It also con- AKRSP has developed are seemingly sustainable cluded that the AKRSP's financial future would as they are applied and modified in an organic be very tight, requiring it to strenghten finan- fashion elsewhere. In the NAC, many village insti- cial management and increase cost recovery tutions and their works fathered by the AKRSP and fee income. It also proposed the estab- have already matured and look set to have long lishment of an endowment fund that would lives, surviving independently of their progen- yield sufficient income to cover at least some itor, continuing to fill a void left by the decline core costs.22 of earlier political and social structures. Infra- But a narrow concern with self-financing may structure works are likely to be sustained because be misplaced. If the AKRSP tightens its belt, if it they yield a substantial positive return and are develops a new strategy pursuing efficiency, if well maintained. In this narrow sense, the AKRSP it develops partnerships in a development coali- can be said to be institutionally sustainable. tion, and if it sells itself more as a laboratory for developing and testing creative new ideas on Financial Sustainability rural development,23 then these public good The AKRSP is not financially self-sustaining. As aspects of its work constitute a strong case for a private corporation, the AKRSP cannot tax the continued international donor assistance. 17 Community Organizations Community organizations lie at the heart of the AKRSP approach. Their achievements have been remarkable and, unlike many other donor- funded interventions, sustained. This success has been widely repli- cated in Pakistan, and, as noted, similar organizations elsewhere have emulated the AKRSP model. Two main types of organizations are currently being supported-village organizations for men (VOs) and women's organizations (WOs) for women, although umbrella local development organizations (LDOs) are becoming increasingly important. Annex J, table J.3, shows steady growth, to 85 section assesses the relevance, efficacy, and effi- percent of rural households with community ciency of community organizations, with a par- organization membership by 2000, with the ticular focus on women's organizations because highest percentage in Gilgit (94 percent) and the they appear to be in greatest need of redirec- lowest in Chitral (64 percent), the latter due tion and offer the greatest potential for gain. partly to earlier reluctance to join the program. Within the villages there is widespread appre- Relevance ciation for what these organizational structures have done for members, and there is inde- Over the Period of the Program pendent evidence that membership brings ben- The VOs have been highly relevant institutions. efits. As one observer noted, "AKRSP has Fostered by the AKRSP from the outset in 1982, provided a platform." Many villagers' comments they built on local traditions of self-help and suggest that a main benefit is that it has empow- cooperation. For villagers they also proved an ered them to think and make decisions rather effective channel for accessing AKRSP assis- than simply receive. As one villager put it, tance. From the perspective of the AKRSP, the "Before, people said, 'Yes Sir;' now people say, organizations successfully embodied the dual 'Why Sir?"' However, the extent of ethnographic objectives of the program: to build village insti- information describing internal village differ- tutions based on participation and to bring about ences and patterns is still quite limited. This economic development through Productive Phys- 19 The Next Ascent: An Evaluation of the Aga Khan Rural Support Program, Pakistan ical Infrastructure (PPI). The organizations, par- more diverse and outward-looking livelihood ticularly the men's, met both AKRSP and villager options and new institutions such as function- aspirations and formed an effective instrument based farmer interest groups take their place, but for dialogue between male representatives of vil- often with some of the same membership. Eco- lage communities and program staff. nomic options have now expanded in the NAC, Eighteen years later, many villages continue and the need to build alliances with down- to have active organizations. In others they are country merchants will be more important. This less active, or in some cases dormant. In most is what is happening now, and what the AKRSP areas VOs now coexist with a plethora of sub- is planning for with its "functions-based" and supra-village organizations, including LDOs, approach. To better understand this process cluster organizations, and Social Welfare Soci- and enable creative responses, the AKRSP needs eties. Some of these have arisen out of the need to assess why some villages have more mature to coordinate mohallah-based (hamlets) VOs. institutions than others. The evaluation team Others have developed independently in does not feel that the 1998 Institutional Maturity response to specific functional interests or other Study really achieved this.' funding sources. Relevance of Women's Organizations Relevance Today With few exceptions, all institutional diversifi- While it is difficult to assess the relevance of com- cation at the village level has been achieved by munity organizations from brief visits, data men in men-only groups. During evaluation confirm the continued relevance of many organ- team visits, not a single women's group planned izations. The 1998 Institutional Maturity Index a presentation; no woman got to her feet to make Study estimates that roughly two-thirds of male even the shortest speech on behalf of her organ- members attend VO meetings regularly and ization. The contrast between the well-organized slightly more than two-thirds of women attend meetings held by the VOs and the meetings WO meetings. This is a positive indication of rel- held with WOs could not have been greater. evance, as time is a highly valued resource in Whatever the cultural and religious justifications poor households. However, based on its field for the enormous discrepancy in women's abil- interviews, the evaluation team found reported ity to plan and manage activities, the twin-track meeting attendance quite variable. Where VOs approach has created an institutional process have not retained their relevance to members and where one track (the men's organizations) has have disbanded, this may not be an indication left the other track (the WOs) far behind. of failure in institution building. It may be a pos- This is not to suggest that almost 400 women's itive indication that villagers have sufficient organizations have not been relevant to women maturity and confidence in their improved social (Annex J, table J.5). The problem, perhaps, is that capital status to feel comfortable letting go of a they have been too relevant. They have particular organization that has outlived its use- responded to women's practical needs but not fulness-perhaps to spawn another one in a to their aspirations or potential as public citizens. different guise, with a different objective. The AKRSP may not have set its sights high enough in encouraging women to gradually Maintaining Relevance in the Future increase their public profile and, with the sup- VOs will continue to be highly relevant in some port of men, create their own institutions, or in villages-for example, those in single-cropping, the right circumstances, join men in theirs.2 high-altitude zones isolated from markets and other funding sources, and where subsistence Relevance of Community Organizations agriculture is still the norm, or where the AKRSP for the Poorest plans to offer further infrastructural support. The relevance of community organizations to However, the relevance of the original formu- the poorest, who have never been members of lation of broad VOs may decline in villages as them, appears to have been much less than for 20 Community Organizations their generally better-off participating neighbors. Efficacy Many of these poorest are the destitute-widows, people with disabilities, the mentally handi- Overall Efficacy of Village Organizations capped, and immigrants with few resources. Overall, VOs have been highly effective. They With little time to participate in collaborative have been the mechanism for developing social work or with insufficient financial capital to capital, creating infrastructure, carrying out say- honor reciprocal obligations, they are not easily ings and loan activities, enhancing natural drawn into the fold. Experience from elsewhere resource management, and developing human suggests that these groups often tend to capital. However, for the future, resource con- be excluded. It has taken a long time for the straints will dictate an increasing degree of dif- AKRSP to address this social exclusion.3 Non- ferentiation among types of villages and participating poor families have still benefited organizations. Broad strategic questions related somewhat from the ability of the village organ- to differentiation-discussed further in Chapter ization to manage infrastructure and natural 5-include: Should the AKRSP support high- resources on behalf of the village. Traditions of fliers with good business skills? Or should it equitably sharing out new land parcels have support organizations that have primarily social greatly helped equity. But as non-members, they objectives, such as managing conflict resolution have missed out in several ways. First, they will or canvassing for girls' education? Or should have had no opportunity to save and build up the AKRSP primarily support economically dis- capital as a social safety net, or to use their col- advantaged areas and villages? Designing an lateral for borrowing in times of crisis, medical effective differentiated approach will call for a emergencies, or food scarcity. Second, they will good understanding of the differences in village have missed out on the development of social maturity, the reasons for those differences, and organization skills. the status of social capital. Relevance of the Pilot Poverty Program Overall Efficacy of Women's Organizations The pilot poverty program-to test out more The evaluation team focused particularly on intensive, directed poverty approaches-has understanding how members of WOs judged been operating for only one year, and so far in "effectiveness." Not unexpectedly, women just a handful of villages. It was initiated in 1999 appear to judge an activity to be effective if they in both Gilgit and Baltistan as'an outcome of the think the time they put into it is justified by what Training and Learning Program in Social Devel- they got out of it. The outcome might be opment, which has helped staff develop ana- broadly economic, or it might be social. Using lytical skills.4 It is now enabling the poorest people's own criteria for assessing effectiveness households to join VOs. This effort will need to is difficult, but it needs to be tried. It stops out- be monitored. In one village (Gakuch Balla) it siders from judging effectiveness only from was not clear to the evaluation team that the tar- their own perspective and ensures that the def- geted families had really wanted to join a com- initions of participants are also taken into munity organization or that their better-off account.6 neighbors had welcomed them. Experience from Most WOs are seen as effective by their other countries suggests that incorporating the members. There is no doubt that for many poorest into well-established village organizations women their organization is an important part is very difficult, particularly if poverty is com- of their lives-probably to a much greater extent pounded by any form of disability (which is the than the VO now is for men. For one thing, it case for some families in both the pilot villages is still the only organization for women in the visited). This is a reminder that high levels of majority of villages, and their first and only social capital within a group are good for the experience of self-management. In most vil- group, but can make it exclusive and intolerant lages, WOs appear to provide sufficient social of outsiders who are noticeably different.5 and economic returns for members to meet 21 The Next Ascent: An Evaluation of the Aga Khan Rural Support Program, Pakistan regularly, usually weekly. The AKRSP is appre- AKRSP Social Sector Interventions and Staffing ciated for the many opportunities it has provided Social service programs channeled through WOs for women through these organizations. In gen- appear to be only modestly effective. Two exam- eral, there was a "feel good" factor within well- ples, water supply and women's literacy, are established WOs where AKRSP support was addressed below. seen to be making things happen. The converse Water supply schemes and community bath- was also true. In villages where the AKRSP has rooms are much in demand by WOs. Such pro- only very occasional contact because of religious grams are now being channeled through them, opposition, debt default on the part of a VO, or which indicates that the AKRSP clearly appre- where visits by women's social organizers ciates the value of making the WOs the conduit (WSOs) were very infrequent, there was often for village services. It will be important to ensure a feeling of abandonment. WOs continue to see that women will manage these schemes and themselves as dependent on AKRSP social and that men will not take over. The evaluation financial support. The relatively weak per- team was concerned about whether the AKRSP formance of regional women's programs has is organized and staffed to invest the time been noted in recent donor reviews and actions required at the village level to ensure this out- proposed.7 come. Men need to be to helped to appreciate the reasons for the shift in policy, to support it, Training Programs for Women and to make the connection between women's The AKRSP's impact studies indicate that train- management of small-scale infrastructure and vil- ing programs through WOs have not always lage development as a whole. The lack of been effective in achieving significant or sus- women staff in technical departments is likely tainable increases in incomes, notwithstanding to be a constraint to their development of tech- the importance of basic numeracy and literacy. nical skills. Training programs appear to work best when The scale of support for women's literacy is they add value to a product such as poultry rear- impressive-48 women's literacy centers were ing or vegetable production.8 set up during the year 2000. The AKRSP is pur- Tailoring classes are common, but income suing two models. One involves hiring existing, returns are modest. Training appears to have often male, teachers to provide classes for flooded the market with medium-quality women and uses standard adult literacy tech- women's garments with a limited village market, niques. The other, in Chitral, is developing and because everyone can now sew. To have any testing its own methodology and materials, and sustained financial impact, such training would training its own teachers. It is highly participa- need to be of sufficient duration to allow women tive, with strong functional objectives (materials to produce high-quality products (such as men's aim to change health, hygiene, and nutrition wear) that are in demand. behavior as well as to teach literacy and numer- Good financial advice is essential, and credit acy). The program is of high quality, but also for start-up capital, perhaps with some grant reputedly of high cost. element for the poor, would be an additional The AKRSP could use the opportunity offered boost. Most important, training in marketing by these two approaches to explore a funda- (including pricing, procurement of inputs, and mental strategic question and reflect the answer different market channels) is essential. Women in the strategy: What is the objective of provid- need practical help finding markets and engag- ing literacy classes? Are classes intended to make ing middlemen. The Enterprise Section (see women literate as a stepping-stone to other Annex K, Organizational Chart) provides mar- activities, or are they mainly for empowerment keting advice, but to individuals and marketing and awareness? Literacy, like all components of groups, not to WOs. Learning Support Units the women's program, needs to fit into a larger (LSUs) therefore organize training in a "demand" strategic framework for village and regional vacuum. (and not just women's) development. 22 Community Organizations What Does the Success of Community The Need to Monitor the Efficiency of the Organizations Mean for Global Learning Poverty Pilot about Participation? The AKRSP will need to carefully monitor the effi- The success of community organizations in the ciency of the pilot poverty project, which, while AKRSP strongly supports other findings by OED it has commendable objectives, could result in in relation to participation (Blackburn, Chambers, suboptimal allocation of resources. The pro- and Gaventa 2000), including the importance of gram is well conceived.9 It acknowledges that persistence; the need to avoid throwing large poverty and vulnerability result from a combi- amounts of money at a problem over a short nation of factors: social exclusion, lack of mate- period, as in many large donor projects; the rial assets, and a lack of competencies resulting need to avoid having participation "bolted on" in limited livelihood options. But the opportu- to a program design rather than having the nity costs of the program are considerable. One design subservient to the participation needs; the estimate was that a visit was required to pilot vil- risk of scaling up too rapidly; the need for lages once a week for six months, an eight- to NGOs, governments, and donors to adapt pro- tenfold increase in reported "normal" frequency. cedures to participation; and the need to use If the pilot poverty program is to be extended, "champions" and alliances. One area where the the AKRSP may want to consider a dedicated AKRSP has not been as effective is in participa- team of staff seconded to this program. Those tory monitoring. currently involved have learned a great deal, and it would be inefficient not to capitalize on their Efficiency skills. Alternatively, an NGO could be contracted to oversee this program. Overall Efficiency of the Community In any event, once any obvious potential man- Development Activity agement efficiency gains have been exploited, the The ability of community organizations to lever- AKRSP must ask of the monitoring data whether age a range of activities, including infrastructure, staff time is best spent on an expanded, separate microfinance, natural resource management, poverty initiative or elsewhere in the program. and capacity building, and also support other Testing various levels of AKRSP support in dif- AKDN activities, and that the overall rate of ferent cases would help answer this question by return appears to be satisfactory, suggests that offering more of a range of support intensity to the community component has probably been test. It may be that the learning gained so far could efficient. However, three particular areas will be mainstreamed fairly quickly into other pro- need attention to maintain efficiency in the grams. The finding, discussed in Chapter 2, that changing environment: the need to differenti- being in a village with a VO had a greater effect ate village and organization support-putting on incomes than being a VO member is relevant less into the more mature organizations and to this poverty-alleviation efficiency issue. more into the less mature and poor organiza- In addition to evaluating the efficiency of the tions; the need to bring women into the main- pilot poverty program itself-much of which, as stream of decisionmaking, while also working noted earlier, helps the destitute-it would be with the proposed "functions-based" and supra- important to monitor the distribution of credit organizations-there may be some tradeoff by poverty quintile to assess the share reaching here; and the need to monitor the efficiency of the poor. This may indicate opportunities for the poverty pilot activity, and then make deci- adjustment in the microfinance program. Ideally sions about the activity. The last is expanded on this should include monitoring the poverty below. impact of internal lending activities. 23 Programs While community organizations are the main vehicle of development, the substance of support for sectoral growth is in four main program areas: microfinance, productive physical infrastructure, natural resource management, and marketing and enterprise development, together with the human resource development associated with these programs. The evaluation team assessed each of the four * Create a large capital base through regular program areas separately, again applying the savings. standard OED evaluation criteria. This section * Provide sustainable access to microfinance summarizes the findings of that assessment, the services. details of which are in Annex L. * Devise simple and appropriate financial manage- ment systems for community organizations. Microfinance * Improve financial and managerial skills of The microfinance component of the AKRSP's the office staff of community organizations. work is about to undergo a major change: the * Establish a sustainable financial institution. activities of the Microfinance Section will soon be taken over by a new national microfinance These objectives are consistent with the over- bank. The AKRSP will be a 60 percent share- all AKRSP mission statement, except that they do holder in the bank (with the AKFED at 20 per- not directly cover the equity issue. It is impor- cent, and the International Finance Corporation tant that these objectives-but including the [IFC1 at 20 percent), which would operate both missing equity element-are carried over to the in the NAC and elsewhere in Pakistan. The national microfinance bank. evaluation mission did not appraise the new The Microfinance Program Has Been Rele- bank and limited its work to reviewing .past vant, but Recent Significant Changes Will Affect microfinance performance and to offering find- Strategy. Since the last evaluation, important ings that are relevant to the operation of the new changes have occurred. Since 1997 annual loan bank and to the AKRSP's relationship with it. disbursal has declined; lending within com- The objectives of the Microfinance Program, munities has increased; overdues have in- as presented. to the mission, were to: creased and, in 2000, total savings declined for 25 The Next Ascent: An Evaluation of the Aga Khan Rural Support Program, Pakistan the first time. These changes, together with When internal loans are not repaid, the com- the proposal for the new bank, require that munity organization is faced with a difficult objectives and target clientele be clarified, credit choice, either deducting the payment from the products be reviewed, and processes of coor- borrower's savings, which some organizations are dination between the AKRSP and the new bank reluctant to do for fear of decapitalizing the be established. community organization, or loan rescheduling, Efficacy of the Microfinance Program Has which many do, but which risks decline in lend- Been Substantial. The program has been an ing discipline and erosion of savers' confidence. important complementary element in the devel- Both outcomes risk disintegration of the social opment of VOs and WOs. From the outset, the capital that has been fostered over many years. AKRSP has stressed savings by community organ- It is estimated that in the Gilgit region about izations as an investment in social organization 18 percent of the community organizations are and as the capital base for investments in pro- undertaking internal lending, and in Hunza, ductive opportunities. The processes established close to 50 percent. While this is in keeping with have been very effective in reducing transaction the AKRSP objective of making villagers self- costs and mobilizing savings of poor house- sufficient, there are doubts about whether it holds. While saving to a certain level was com- will be sustainable at present village skill levels. pulsory, the microfinance program was helped While the AKRSP has limited leverage in the for some time by the differential interest rates internal decisionmaking of the organizations, it and potential for arbitrage-borrowing at low has been promoting a set of uniform internal rates, saving at high rates-that existed. lending guidelines and providing training.' This Savings and Credits. Recent changes in the say- will need to be continued under the new bank. ings and credit environment need to be addressed Owrdues and Write-Offs. Recovery performance in the new strategy. Total savings declined in 2000 has recently been under threat owing to a high to Rs. 429 million from Rs. 431 million in 1999, ratio of overdues to loans outstanding-above 20 although it was still rising for the newer WOs. percent, with a high of 25 percent in 1999-and The decline largely has been due to reduced vol- a loan loss ratio increase to 4.1 percent in 2000 umes of compulsory savings as savings reserves from 1.7 percent in each of the two previous have built up and to competitive opportunities years.2 Portfolio at risk3 peaked at 7.2 percent in elsewhere. However, by June 2001 savings had 1999 but in 2000 came down to 5.6 percent. risen again to Rs. 432 million. There is a marked regional difference in the On the credit side, while the AKRSP's credit pattern of repayments: in 2000, Baltistan District disbursements grew rapidly from Rs. 1 million in had the highest ratio of overdues at 48 percent, 1983 to Rs. 91 million in 1994, and to a high of Chitral the lowest at 16 percent. The increased Rs. 277 million in 1997, disbursements have overdue ratio is largely a legacy of a recent credit declined since then to Rs. 224 million in 1998 (Rs. operation failure, mainly involving individual 253 million in outstanding loans), Rs. 163 million loans (previously called enterprise loans) for in 1999 (Rs. 201 million in outstanding loans), potato production in Baltistan, an enterprise that down to Rs. 127 million in 2000 (Rs. 142 million faced production and marketing problems. This in outstanding loans). While increased interest is a consequence of an attempt in the mid-1990s rates on all credit products and a downturn in to rapidly expand the AKRSP's credit portfolio the national economy have contributed to the through experimentation with lending products, reduction in demand, it is mostly a product of but without proper appraisal procedures. increased internal lending within communities. The AKRSP has been proactive in reevaluat- Internal Lending. Internal lending, earlier ing its loan products and quick to terminate called village banking, is self-managed credit in poorly performing products, however, and it which the community organization lends its say- has now amended its internal policies and pro- ings to its own members. Lending terms and con- cedures. Considering the regional differences in ditions are set internally by the community. the overdue pattern, an adequately differentiated 26 Programs approach, with particular attention to the per borrower, while the average amount lent per Baltistan District, is required and appears to be borrower has gone down and the number of well in hand. Its effect on repayment perform- loans and the credit amount being overseen by ance needs to be closely monitored. each credit officer have decreased appreciably. Overall, Efficiency Is Substantial Compared The program has been instrumental in devel- with Pakistan and Global Standards. While the oping local capacity in financial management. operating cost' ratio over average portfolio out- More than 3,700 people have been trained in standing increased to 11.3 percent in 2000 from bookkeeping and accounts, including many 7.1 percent in 1998, this is well below the community organization managers. However, industry standard of 13 to 21 percent. The the new bank will present a new skills challenge, increase is a result of staff growth and improve- coming at a time when AKRSP microfinance is ment of the financial management system. The emerging from a period of some fragility. AKRSP's microfinance operations are not directly Subsidy Is Modest or Zero Depending on comparable with most microfinance NGOs in Assumptions. With respect to financial sustain- Pakistan because of the small size of their loan ability, the AKRSP's own Subsidy Dependence portfolios compared to the AKRSP, different Index (SDI) calculation shows a very favorable implementation methodologies, and the limited negative 130 percent (Annex G), indicating no time in operation.5 However, a comparison of the subsidy. However, three coefficients used in the AKRSP with other NGOs in the Pakistan Micro- calculation bias it toward financial sustainability, finance Group6 indicates relative efficiency. Tak- depending on the interpretation of what the ing a global view, the efficiency of the AKRSP's opportunity cost of funds has been, how to treat Microfinance Program is better than the indus- shared costs within the AKRSP, and how to treat try average of 114 microfinance institutions. earnings from investment of unused funds (dis- Institutional Development Impact of the Micro- cussed more fully in Annex L). Reworking the finance Program Has Been Substantial. The index calculation with alternative assumptions AKRSP has established an efficient microfinance (see Annex G, right-hand column) shows an system and substantially enhanced capacity at all SDI for the year 2000 with about a zero subsidy. levels through training. To deal with the emerg- Less favorable alternative methodologies still do ing overdues issues and to prepare for the tran- not show substantial subsidies. The new bank sition to the new bank, the AKRSP has projections expect some cross-subsidy from other strengthened its Microfinance Section. As a result, operations to the NAC for about 5 years. the operating costs of the Microfinance Pro- gram increased from Rs. 2.8 million in 1995 to The Future for Microfinance Rs. 19.41 million in 2000. The changes over the Clarify the Strategy and Prevent Mission Drift. past three years, aimed at portfolio quality Both the new bank and the AKRSP need a NAC improvement, have led to an increase in cost per microfinance strategy. The evaluation team unit of money lent and an increase in the cost believes that to be consistent with the mission b le 4.1 E @oololDmis lo AKRSP MBB peer group MRB, a.! iMicrofinance Microtinance in South Asia paticipants Group in Pakistan Prnu ra ,. (n = 9) ( : ?/V (n = 10) Operating costs/average loan portfolio 12% 20% 31% 15% Operating costs/borrowers $16 $19 $150 $16 Borrowers/staff 389 229 111 N/A Source: AKRSP 2000h. 27 The Next Ascent: An Evaluation of the Aga Khan Rural Support Program, Pakistan statement of the AKRSP, the microfinance pro- nal problems with external accounts while they gram objective for both the AKRSP and the new can still be fixed. bank should: (i) maintain a focus on the poor, Conduct Marketing Studies. Mission discus- but not necessarily the poorest of the poor; (ii) sions at village level found some dissatisfaction maintain a focus on the NAC as the AKRSP client with loan products, suggesting that further mar- area; (iii) provide high-quality financial services ket research is warranted to contribute to the to the identified clientele; and (iv) maximize the design of new bank products, particularly complementarities between the AKDN family of regarding the credit needs of women. This is an programs and the new bank. The establishment opportunity to enter a new phase of product of a new bank should neither become the micro- diversification and to move away from the ear- finance objective itself nor absolve the AKRSP lier, more basic products, or at least to fine- from setting out a clear strategy for its micro- tune existing products. At the end of 2000, and finance support for the NAC and continuing its then again in October 2001, two new products central role in microfinance execution. have been introduced, so there is already evi- Divorcing microfinance activities from the dence of increased diversification. other AKRSP program components, as the new bank will do, offers some benefits but also Productive Physical Infrastructure carries risks that need to be managed. In the The benefits and impact of the 2,000 small-scale past, the ability to integrate credit activities with infrastructure schemes completed so far (see technical assistance from other program com- Annex J, tables J.6 to J.9) are substantial and ponents was thought to be an advantage. While largely sustainable (about 50 percent irrigation; under the particular circumstances of the 25 percent roads, bridges, and other communi- AKRSP's well-coordinated program this may cations infrastructure; and about 15 percent have been the case, global experience has microhydel). Ingenious irrigation supply chan- shown that such a tie can actually hurt credit nels, often over long, precarious routes across more than help it, providing the opportunity for mountain slopes, have aided the development borrowers to default on the grounds of faulty of 48,000 hectares of new land, about a one-third technical advice. With separate institutions-the increase in cultivable land area, and intensified AKRSP and the proposed new bank--the advan- existing cropping. The hundreds of miles of tage of securing loan repayments as an incen- link roads and 60 bridges constructed by village tive for further AKRSP investments at the village organizations have increased the impact of the level could be weakened, but the intention expanding government trunk road system. appears to be to maintain close program links Microhydels are making a major difference to and to withhold investments from defaulting vil- quality of life, especially in Chitral. The great vari- lages. In making projections it will be important ety of other schemes chosen by villages indicates to reflect realistic trends of internal lending and opportunities for more diversified infrastructure overdues. Getting these projections right, and investments in the future. keeping them realistic on the basis of per- PPIs HaveBeen Relevant. The objectives of the formance, will be critical. PPI program were highly relevant and consistent Clarify Respective Roles, Especially in Internal with the overall mission statement. They were: Lending. It will also be important to clarify to provide the essential catalyst and social build- AKRSP and bank roles with respect to guidance ing block for village organization and to respond for communities on internal lending, perhaps with technical assistance and grants to the even regaining some control over the situation. expressed needs of the villagers to improve their The new bank will need to address this with lives by investment in physical works. Generally, AKRSP help. Experience suggests that problems investments have been equitably distributed. with internal lending will readily spill over into Government has demonstrated its appreciation external accounts behavior. Delinquency prob- of their relevance by providing funds for extra lems identified early in internal accounts can sig- schemes to be overseen by the AKRSP. 28 0 Programs Efficacy Has Been Substantial. The PPI pro- social impact of the infrastructure program has gram has continued to complete an average of been substantial: ERRs average 19 percent, based about 120 schemes a year, and with the addition on AKRSP's worst-case economic analysis sce- of 20 contract engineers, 154 schemes were com- narios (after the omission of one high ERR case pleted in 2000. (But relevant to the question of study outlier in each PPI type). The benefits were incentives for sustaining community organizations confirmed in village discussions, which often is that, in 1987, after 5 years of the program, about stressed the health benefits and where estimates 20 percent of the organizations had a PPI being of land value changes collected by the mission initiated that year, whereas in 2000, with more were consistent with the capitalization of high than three times the number of organizations and private internal rates of return into land price. some decline in number of PPIs initiated, it was Costs are substantially lower than for traditional about 5 percent.) Selection of projects by the public works. whole community in open meetings conducted Evidence is mixed on the allocative efficiency with AKRSP facilitators generally ensures that of investments. Average ERRs by type fall in a the highest-priority schemes are chosen. It also relatively narrow range, suggesting reasonably ensures collective commitment to provide a sub- sound overall allocation by PPI type. However, stantial share of the costs and labor. Only 4 per- the range of.ERRs within a PPI type is wider, sug- cent of schemes have been abandoned as failures, gesting there may be room for stricter selectiv- most of them in Chitral and Baltistan. ity within categories.9 However, the rate of completion of the land - Sustainability Is Likely, but Microbydels Have development elements of irrigation projects to Some Potential Problems. The sustainability of make early use of available irrigation water is infrastructure schemes is assessed as highly likely, cause for concern. Reclassifying irrigation but with reservations for some types of schemes. schemes as "land development schemes" raises Village ownership of schemes was found to be the profile of the economically important land excellent. Maintenance of infrastructure is of a development phase, but it is not clear that this generally high standard: the AKRSP reports that has yet translated into faster development rates. 92 percent of the infrastructure projects are effec- Apart from some government construction of tively maintained, with a high figure of 98 per- secondary roads, AKRSP roads and bridges have cent for those in the Gilgit region.'o A recent study provided the bulk of the tertiary road system. (Khwaja 2000) that looked at the determinants These tertiary roads have greatly increased the of collective success in the maintenance of AKRSP impact of the Karakoram and Skardu highways. infrastructure projects found that adverse The benefits of microhydels are numerous and community-specific factors did affect standard of far-reaching, but limited mainly to Chitral, which maintenance, but that this could be more than has the most schemes and the highest microhydel compensated for by better project design. No concentration in the world. Initially the main use serious problems were reported during village of the schemes was for lighting to replace meetings, and no major maintenance deficiencies kerosene lamps and wood fires, and to power were observed at project sites visited. simple home appliances, but the newer schemes However, three sustainability issues are of are creating opportunities for small enterprises some concern: such as stone polishing and agricultural pro- * Cost recovery in microhydel schemes gener- cessing, and for public facilities. There is scope ally just covers routine operation and main- in Chitral for many more such schemes.' AKRSP tenance, with no reserve for larger repairs or microhydel staff have provided assistance to a replacements. The current ad hoc levies for variety of other schemes, even in other countries, such large expenses seem to have worked so projecting the AKRSP approach well beyond far, but cannot be sustained in the planned the program.8 expansion to larger schemes. The Regional Economic Analysis Suggests the Infrastruc- Program Office in Chitral is aware of the ture Program Is Efficient. The economic and problem, and action is being taken to increase 29 The Next Ascent: An Evaluation of the Aga Khan Rural Support Program, Pakistan tariffs (a similar problem is likely for domes- as before, only in response to village demand tic water supply). and within village capacity. * In some irrigation schemes there should be The schemes taken up under the program increasing attention to projecting labor con- should normally be limited to those that can be straint, especially where there are growing implemented with no greater AKRSP input than off-farm employment opportunities. In some the traditional village-based schemes to date, and cases, village land area increases substantially. to those that villagers are willing and able to * Water use efficiency is becoming increasingly complete and maintain with their own resources. important, as some villages have experienced Thus, the prime determinant should be not size decreasing water supply. While this is not yet but pragmatism with respect to what villages can widespread, shortages could pose future sus- construct and maintain. Large infrastructure tainability problems for some irrigation schemes identified by communities, but beyond investments. their capabilities, should be implemented in part- nership with government. The AKRSP should The Future for PPI consider moving toward awarding PPIs on the Demand Should Be Met, but with Greater Cost basis of competitive proposals and the commu- Recovery. The NAC has a large unsatisfied nity record of implementation and maintenance, demand for further investment in high-priority but with a poverty rating criterion also. infrastructure, but it should be pursued within the framework of increased partnership with Natural Resource Management government, with greater differentiation between Natural resource management (NRM) activities, private and public goods, with increased focus encompassing agriculture, livestock, and forestry, on poorer areas, at scales that villages can main- have been highly relevant and have had a sig- tain, and with less subsidy (a reduced grant nificant beneficial impact in the project area over element). The level of subsidy should be dif- the period of the program. NRM activities can be ferentiated by community poverty, public and expected to remain relevant, as about 60 percent private goods categories (less to the latter), and of household income comes from farming. by resource levels. However, the AKRSP should The NRM strategy calls for raising the living become more a social facilitator and technical standards and incomes of the people of the assistance agency for infrastructure than a NAC to a level comparable with the national financier. average for Pakistan. It proposes four priority Diferentiate More Between Public and Private areas: increasing area under irrigation, wheat" Goods and Poor and Less-Poor Communities. and maize improvement, animal husbandry, and The AKRSP should differentiate more between commercial agriculture. Three strategic elements private and public goods, or the public and pri- serve as an overlay: increasing production from vate elements of mixed goods, and make this existing farmland by 66 percent; increasing cul- explicit in funding decisions, with the grant ele- tivated area by 30 percent; and modestly increas- ment of private goods being reduced in stages. ing income through ancillary enterprises such as This would mean that land development beekeeping, poultry farming, and trophy hunt- schemes (including their irrigation supply) and ing. Greater agricultural production is expected microhydels would receive reduced capital sub- to come from increased cropping intensity, new sidies, but roads and bridges would continue to technologies, and improved supply of inputs. be grant-financed at about current levels. But jus- Forestry is being played down somewhat tifications should be reassessed as part of an because of the substantial planting achieve- overall AKRSP subsidy review. Levels of poverty ments and increase in private nurseries initi- should also be considered. The allocation of ated with AKRSP assistance. infrastructure investment should be a major tool One premise of the strategy-that production in rebalancing the overall program more in favor must increase by 66 percent in line with popu- of poorer and relatively under-served areas, but lation growth (2.55 percent)-warrants rethink- 30 Programs ing. In an area as challenging as the NAC, nei- of cherries, apples, pears, and apricots; the huge ther efficiency nor sustainability calls for regional increase in seed potato cultivation for down- self-sufficiency in food production. Income trans- country markets; and continued attention to fer and non-farm income are fully acceptable ele- increased forage production (alfalfa, oats, maize). ments in a strategy for sustainable livelihoods in But Some Areas Need Attention. Notwith- rural areas. Food import may always be needed. standing the generally good performance, as In the absence of a "control" program area it with all programs, there are some signs of prob- is difficult to prove that the AKRSP has substituted lems. First, while it is difficult to prove, the for government, but the total absence of gov- evaluation team believes some vision has been ernment extension suggests that the AKRSP has lost in natural resource management. Evidence probably substituted for government in tech- for this includes the weak explicit linkage nology dissemination. In research, with the between NRM strategy and poverty objectives in AKRSP handling adaptive work only, mainly project design, the continued lack of attention testing and demonstrating new varieties, the to the above-channel areas as an integral part AKRSP contribution has been more comple- of the system, and the partial response to ear- mentary, but complementary to a still weak gov- lier recommendations of both the OED and ernment program largely based on research Joint Monitoring Mission Reports. stations. There is some evidence of recent Second, the evaluation team observed some improvements at the Karakoram Agricultural variability in performance of NRM interventions Research Institute for the Northern Areas across villages and districts, which suggests there (KARINA; Annex I). If this can be sustained, per- may be room for management improvements. haps with donor assistance, it may provide a basis Third, the evaluation team had some doubts for more productive and sustainable partnership about whether there has been sufficient focus between government and the AKRSP in research. on technologies for the poorer households, and Efficacy of the NRM Component Has Been for those at high altitudes, although there has cer- Highly Satisfactory.12 Over the only period for tainly been some attention in breed improvement which good income data are available, per capita and fodder security.'4 The NRM program needs farm incomes increased 2.7 times, from Rs. 2,647 something similar to the targeted poverty pro- in 1991 to about Rs. 7,046 in 1997 (in real terms, gram, with differentiation that would identify the 1999 prices). Before and after that period, data particular needs of the poorer households in each are inadequate, but income growth rates were identifiable zonal system. probably lower, partly due to weak national Fourth, sustainability of gains in cash crops economic growth. The lowest percentage will be fragile if more attention is not given to increases have been in Astore, where infra- addressing crop and livestock pest and disease structure is a main constraint, and the highest problems-for example, disease problems in have been in Chitral (AKRSP 2000c). Efficacy was seed potato; understanding and linking mar- particularly impressive in forestry. keting and production; and enhancing the capac- Improved varieties of wheat and maize, 400 ity of the private sector input supply system. metric tons of which have been distributed since Fifth, in double-crop areas there are some inception of the program, are acknowledged by signs that productivity increases are reaching a villagers to have contributed to raising overall plateau. This needs attention through integrated cereal production substantially. Based on the nutrient management approaches. socioeconomic surveys, cropping intensity Relative Strengths and Weaknesses. Looking between 1991 and 1997 increased by about 15 at AKRSP performance in NRM, the evaluation percent. Growth in fruits, vegetables, and live- team assessed strengths and weaknesses with stock has significantly contributed to increased respect to five attributes generally considered farm income.'3 Examples of relevant and suc- important for technology development and dis- cessful technology innovations supported by the semination. The findings are summarized in the AKRSP include the introduction of exotic varieties table below. 31 The Next Ascent: An Evaluation of the Aga Khan Rural Support Program, Pakistan The Farm Systems Recommendations of the NGOs such as the IUCN and the Worldwide Previous Evaluation. The evaluation mission's Fund for Nature (WWF). But with respect to live- view is that the farm systems recommendations stock productivity, the AKRSP has focused on the of the previous mission should have been imple- below-channel area almost exclusively. Yet nearly mented (see Annex B), although there may be all the weight gain of most livestock comes room for debate about the appropriate intensity from above-channel forage, and livestock are the and scale.15 With the steady increase in off-farm biggest components of farm income. More focus incomes over time, additional focus on a broader on this area, and the interactions with below- livelihoods approach is warranted. Focus on channel areas, is warranted. A shift in this direc- this latter area should now lie within the remit tion by the AKRSP would complement the of the NRM component, since there is no other ongoing efforts of the IUCN and WWF. suitable institutional home for it. Failure to adopt Efficiency Has Been Satisfactory. The eco- the systems approach appears to be explained nomic analysis of the NRM component alone, by a combination of concerns about costs, lack excluding the AKRSP overheads, which have of a comprehensive NRM strategy, lack of core been applied to the overall economic analysis, leadership in NRM, and lack of strong man- suggests a rate of return of 24 percent. This agement commitment to NRM relative to other quite high rate of return is fairly typical of NRM priorities, interventions with a high level of technology con- Livestock Development in Above-Channel tent. The economic analysis also indicates that Areas.16 The AKRSP's role has been important relatively modest shares of aggregate increases through the afforestation program and through in net farm income attributable to AKRSP, on the facilitating contacts between communities and order of 10 percent, would give an adequate ERR. TabIe 4.2 Performance in NRM : Strengths and Weaknesses Attribute Strength Weakness Integration All disciplines of crops, livestock, and forestry integrated Limited central leadership in NRM to play mentor as well into NRM; dissemination processes devolved to regional as strategic planner. program offices. Flexibility Regional management empowered to make periodic reviews Most NRM staff still target-oriented; little time left for and change, when needed. resources allocated for specific creative activities or pursuing ideas that would lead to activities; can be very responsive to the community needs. generating new technologies. Relevance A number of examples of relevant and successful A few areas/farming systems still do not have appropriate technologies disseminated by the AKRSP can be found in technical packages and associated support (single-crop the field. zones/above-channel farming systems; remote communities with marketing problems). Partnerships Very strong in building partnerships with communities. Relatively weak in promoting partnership with government Emerging capacity in building partnerships with private agencies. sector input suppliers. Institutional Over the full program, solid support from management; Support for NRM declined somewhat in recent years. support transparent policies; goal-oriented. 32 Programs Environmental Sustainability Is Largely increase attention to three areas of farming Unknown. No broad study has been done of the systems integration: integrated soil manage- environmental costs and benefits contributed by ment, integrated crop management, and inte- the people of the NAC to this nationally very grated water management. important river basin. Such a study is needed to * Extend the work in single-crop areas, espe- assess the net services provided. With respect to cially in Astore. Develop it as a special, accelerated soil loss arising from land use prac- poverty-focused program using a low exter- tices, sustainability issues do not appear to be a nal inputs approach with a focus on improved major concern in comparison with the mass wast- varieties and seed multiplication and supply. ing of material arising from natural weathering and * Do more for the above-channel areas. While collapses of this geologically young mountain a decision to do more in these areas may be region. While interventions such as afforestation premature before most of the findings of the can temporarily hold more soil, and while indis- ongoing research program are in, this option criminate tree cutting (arising from ill-considered should be given serious consideration as soon new roads, for example) can do the reverse and as possible. also contribute to significant biodiversity loss, * In partnership with others, carry out an analy- the likelihood is low of human activity raising or sis of the environmental costs and benefits of lowering the total silt load coming out of such upstream activities in the river basins, meas- areas by appreciable amounts. Nevertheless, a bet- uring impact at the point of exit from the NAC. ter understanding of the broad environmental This may need to be done in stages, but the relationships is warranted. objective would be to contribute to an over- With respect to pesticide use and fertilizer all assessment of the net upstream environ- runoff there are no data. Training to prevent the mental services provided by the people of the indiscriminate use of inputs and further work on NAC. integrated crop management techniques should * Give high priority to building the capacity of be pursued as much for profitability as for envi- suppliers for provision of quality inputs and ronmental reasons. However, the scale of fertil- technical advice. Increasingly, suppliers should izer and pesticide use is still quite modest and become an element in a more pluralistic it is unlikely to present a major problem yet. But extension service, gradually moving beyond the issue will need careful watching. their present limited roles toward becoming more substantial and stable enterprises. Future Pirections for NRM The following is a very brief summary of pro- Marketing and Enterprise Development posed future component program directions Marketing and Enterprise Development Is Rele- that are more fully covered in Annex L: vant, but Objectives Need Clarification. Market- * Collaborate with government to initiate ing and enterprise development is clearly Research Policy and Commodity Research relevant for a remote region in a diversifying Coordination Committees (less challenging economy. However, the objectives of this pro- than zonal committees at this stage) and gram component need to be clarified and linked Research Extension Liaison Groups in each more directly to the overall mission statement. zone, with farmer, researcher, and NGO mem- Activities have ranged so widely that the bership-including the AKRSP. Initiate a approach appears to have been ad hoc, rather phased introduction of Participatory and Col- than guided by some clear principles. There is legiate Research. Participatory research rep- a need to maximize the AKRSP's leverage, but resents a stage beyond simple participatory to be more efficient in picking the winners. variety testing, bringing farmers more into the Achievements Have Been Modest. The origi- experimental process. nal marketing component concentrated on reduc- * Revisit the farm systems recommendations ing losses of perishable products-fruit (fresh and pilot a modified system. In addition, and dried), livestock, and grains-and on input 33 The Next Ascent: An Evaluation of the Aga Khan Rural Support Program, Pakistan stores. Farmer training and credit were pro- enterprises, with partners being selective in their vided, but much of the activity was undertaken choice of enterprises. by the AKRSP and directly primed with grant Institutional Development Impact Has Been funding. Early results showed few successes Modest. The AKRSP faces its greatest enterprise and some spectacular failures, especially where development challenge in devising ways to the AKRSP took on an agency function in mar- ensure that its activities become institutionally keting perishable produce. sustainable. The earlier cluster marketing asso- From the mid-1990s the emphasis swung ciations have tended to wither once the AKRSP toward enterprise development, with the range is no longer the driving force. With skilled staff of activities broadening away from the AKRSP's and ample initial resources, much can be rural roots. Given the diversifying economy, achieved, but this is not development unless it this was a relevant shift for the NAC, but it has is rapidly institutionalized, preferably as a prof- taken activities into areas of lower AKRSP com- itable private enterprise or in partnership with parative advantage. Notable successes to date a corporate patron. Within the AKDN there include apricot drying and packaging, which appears to be potential synergy in more closely has greatly added to producer returns for this allying AKRSP's enterprise development activi- important crop; seed potatoes, which started ties with AKFED resources. well, but now has run into difficulties; vegetable seed production, which has grown to quite a The Way Ahead for Marketing and Enterprise large enterprise with contract growers, but is still Development a "project" striving for profitability and private * Evaluate the impact of training. The AKRSP ownership; the shu fabric/clothing enterprise, has provided a wide range of relevant train- which also needs to become private; and agri- ing in enterprise skills such as business man- cultural input supply shops, which are already agement, hotel management, bookkeeping, in private ownership. post-harvest management, broiler farming, The latest strategy, which the evaluation team fruit and vegetable processing, poultry feed supports, focuses on providing additional busi- and chick supply, embroidery, carpentry, ness development services for small- and auto mechanics, motor/generator rewinding, medium-scale enterprises, mainly through part- mining, gold panning, food processing, com- nership with existing business service agencies puter technology, cobbling, and mineral and the private sector. However, the limited appraisal. The skills developed are not nec- efficacy of the program to date does raise the essarily lost with the failures of individual question of whether, for enterprise and marketing enterprises. The impact of this training on development, roads investment is not the most income generation needs to be evaluated in reliable bet. Value-added impact comparison order to prioritize future training activities. would be instructive. * Stay the course with agricultural marketing. Efficiency Has Probably Been Modest. The Marketing of agricultural products remains a mission did not have the resources to evaluate primary constraint and should be reinvigo- the efficiency of such a diverse collection of activ- rated to a level at least equal in priority with ities. But with many starts and limited successes, more recent enterprise initiatives. This may efficiency has almost certainly been modest. It call for a staffing review to ensure the avail- is to be expected that this component would ability of appropriate skills. need a start-up subsidy as the AKRSP's traditional * Develop a decision framework. A decision strategy emphasizes experimentation, trial and framework should be developed and kept error, starting small, admitting failures, and mov- updated to identify those sectors, subsectors, ing on if needed. The marketing and enterprise and product categories likely to be most com- development component has epitomized this petitive, as well as add the greatest value to approach. The new partnership approach should the economy of the NAC. Greater prioritiza- provide a more direct route to establishing viable tion is desirable, with more resources going 34 Programs to fewer prime areas to avoid being spread suggest there is substantial potential for eco- too thinly. The use of a social accounting tourism if related infrastructure can be pro- matrix is worth exploring.17 vided and security can be maintained. Tourism should be a priority area for AKDN * Look outward at migration as part ofthe NAC coordination. Tourism in the region's dra- strategy. Focus increasingly on marketable matic physical environment has grown in skills for migration outside the NAC within a recent years, with some AKRSP assistance for broader livelihoods strategy. As has long been village hotels, but it would be desirable to have the case, the future for a significant propor- a more defined strategy in the sector that tion of the population does not lie within the embraces other relevant AKDN agencies. Apart NAC. Support and assistance in employment from traditional trekking and climbing tourism, information and in the migration process the region's natural wonders and biodiversity itself may be warranted. 8 35 Future Directions The Mission Is Valid, the Direction Needs to Change he AKRSP is engaged in an intensive dialogue on strategy both inter- nally and with donors in preparation for the next phase of funding. A main purpose of this evaluation is to contribute to that dialogue. This stage in the AKRSP's evolution represents a significant watershed, coming at a time of increased donor fatigue and continued concerns about efficiency, impact, and future strategies; potentially far-reaching changes in the role of community organizations, including the establishment of Dehi Councils; and the creation of a new bank. After nearly 20 years of successful work that has contributed greatly to the social and environment, there is a need to adjust the ap- economic growth of the NAC, the AKRSP is ask- proach to achieving that mission.' ing itself, and being asked by its principal part- The route to sustainable growth of the NAC ners, to plot a course for the years ahead that is economy lies mainly through private sector de- not simply a linear extension of the road just tray- velopment, an area where neither the AKRSP nor eled. Although there has been great change for government has yet found a way to be effective. the better in the NAC there is still far to go, with Both the AKRSP and government have roles to most indicators of development still lagging those play; yet both need to learn how to foster the in Pakistan as a whole. Based on 1998/99 data, private sector without handing out extensive the average person in the Northern Areas is still subsidies or encouraging investments that lack living on about 50 cents USper day. Thus, there the economic prerequisites for success. As a seems little reason to change the AKRSP's basic part of this, out-migration and seasonal em- mission, most recently stated as "to promote ployment migration are long traditions. These equitable and sustainable improvement in the behaviors are not only. to be expected, but also quality of life of the people of the Northern to be encouraged and assisted, as part of the Areas and Chitral" (AKRSP 2000a, p. 3). But, process of managing the employment problem given changes in the development and donor with a national perspective. 37 The Next Ascent: An Evaluation of the Aga Khan Rural Support Program, Pakistan Future Shlare velopment capacity of the public sector within Fig ure 5 .1 De velopment a set period, while simultaneously increasing C a p a c i t y J the role for the corporate sector.8 ( indicative) 3. Deliver both of the above while: (a) main- lM ..taining and enhancing the strength and vital- ity of an increasingly diverse range of Civil society community organizations that still lie at the core of future development, whether supported by Corporate sector the AKDN or the government, and (b) devel- oping its own policy research and think tank Government =role. Within this thrust there should be an el- ement of "back to basics"-reemphasizing the AKRSP/AKDN original concept of empowering community or- ganizations to improve the welfare of their members through their own efforts. This is a Current In seven years In fifteen years thrust that has been under some threat over the years from supply-led donor support. The foregoing points to the need for gov- This would leave the NAC more or less equally ernment capacity to be strengthened.2 The aim in the hands of the community institutions and should be to build public sector development ca- the people they represent, the private and cor- pacity with the support of AKDN institutions. porate sector (of which AKDN institutions are a There is room for both, but the balance should part), and government-each enabled to pursue change (as indicated in figure 5.1). The institu- the development challenge in accord with its own tions of the AKDN and government have a joint comparative advantage. It would leave the AKRSP interest in expanding public sector capacity3- and the rest of the AKDN with a quantitatively expanding it to the point where it can respond smaller, but still pivotal, position in the NAC. The effectively to the increasingly articulate demands process itself would need to be initiated by a of local communities, now widely organized coalition workshop of all parties, with two or into effective village-level bodies and the new three readily achievable and measurable actions Dehi Councils.4 In such a partnership, the AKRSP, agreed in each area of operation. Ideally, the steps because of its superior organizational skills, toward increased coordination and consolidation strong community-based record, and accumu- within the AKDN should be taken before the lated social capital, should lead the way.5 coalition is fully established. But taking these steps should not delay action on the coalition. Form a Development Coalition In parallel, the AKDN family, including the The change of direction would call for the fol- AKRSP, should increasingly be looking outward lowing three strategic thrusts in response to from the NAC, toward broader partnerships three challenges:6 aimed at non-farm income sources-for example, 1. Agree and implement a common, coordi- facilitating rural/urban business partnerships, nated approach to development in the NAC linking with small urban goods manufacturers, with the other organizations in the AKDN.' increasing artisanal training, getting national- This would call for attention by donors to the level as well as NAC-level employment oppor- incentives for coordinated action. tunity information into villages, and facilitating 2. Take the lead within the AKDN in agreeing urban links, perhaps through city transit hostels. and implementing a clearly defined, mutually As with all challenges, there are risks. In mis- dependent development coalition founded sion discussions, doubts were raised about the on a partnership with government and the pri- capacity of government to perform effectively as vate sector. The intention is to raise the de- a partner. The concern is valid, but it is more rel- 38 Future Directions evant to the rate of change than to its direction.9 as the Millennium Development Goals or Adequate coordination within the AKDN may Pakistan poverty threshold. remain elusive, and efficiencies may not be cap- * Establish a separate fund to be drawn down tured. Government may be inconsistent or weak by government as it seeks to fulfill its share in its commitment.'0 National economic per- of the bargain.'3 Without the application of formance may be slow to improve, and the cli- external resources it is unlikely that the nec- mate for private sector development or policy essary changes in government commitment, reforms may remain difficult. Such institutional behavior, and programs will be secured within failures are one of the challenges of develop- a reasonable time. ment, but they do not constitute a case for not * Support a major push on the lagging Astore making an energetic start. area focused on infrastructure development. The International Year of Mountains in 2002 * Where possible, contribute to the proposed represents an opportunity to connect redirection endowment fund. But donors will rightly be and learning to broader global activities in geo- unwilling to enter into an open-ended com- graphically similar areas. To minimize risk," mitment. Hence, clear milestones would need plans and activities must be incremental, and dis- to be jointly articulated. cussed and agreed beforehand, and objectives must be kept to modest, actionable, and meas- Shaping the Strategy urable steps. A pragmatic strategy is needed The strategy should describe the Pakistan and with a clear direction, an initially modest ex- NAC development context and outline a vision of pectation, clearly defined monitorable steps in what the AKRSP might be expected to look like a limited number of program areas, and a focus in 10 to 20 years. Probably the AKRSP would have on capacity building and devolution. The role the following characteristics: it would be smaller, of the board will be important. continue to assist communities to improve their Regular monitoring is particularly important own welfare through their own efforts, recover where there are risks and uncertainties. The goal more of its costs from fees, focus even more on of building mutual trust and confidence among capacity development, be as much a creative think all the partners suggests that a joint monitoring tank for new development ideas for NAC and unit should be created to measure and report on Pakistan as it is an area development program, ven- the coalition's progress. The government has no ture beyond Pakistan to seed social skills in other effective monitoring capacity; it would be pru- countries, develop creative policy options, be a dent, therefore, to help strengthen government's player in a larger NAC team, and raise a significant capacity. For the most part, success would be share of its funding from consulting services. With judged by regular assessments by villagers them- its clients it would be more a "you call us," demand- selves of their satisfaction with services provided led service organization (relying, in due course, on by the principal agents in the coalition. vastly improved communications) than a supply- New skills in AKRSP and AKDN institutions led organization. Above all, the AKRSP would be may be needed. Goals and commitment will significantly less indispensable to the NAC, or in- need frequent reinforcement from senior man- dispensable in an entirely different way. AKRSP size agers and governing bodies. There will also be would be an outcome of strategy, local demand, need for crucial political and advocacy skills to and changing needs, and not an end in itself. be deployed by all sides, and especially by the Donor strategies may or may not coincide with the Aga Khan Foundation.12 AKRSP strategy in the longer term. The objectives The donors should consider continuing aid and the field of play of the two are different. to the AKRSP and other members of the AKDN The strategy should emphasize two key de- for a further defined period. This support should sign principles: efficacy and efficiency. Efficacy have the following aims: should increasingly have two dimensions-the * Assist AKRSP efforts to help the NAC achieve efficacy of the AKRSP itself and the efficacy of some threshold of poverty achievement such the partnership as a whole. There would need 39 The Next Ascent: An Evaluation of the Aga Khan Rural Support Program, Pakistan to be clear definition of the primary and subsi- one approach with potential for a two-way flow diary program and objectives, explicit statements of knowledge, which would also benefit the about their relative importance, measurable in- AKRSP through infusion. dicators for each, and procedures for carrying The AKRSP can learn much from other prac- out the measurement. titioners, not least those who have adopted and Efficiency would be pursued largely through modified the AKRSP approach. Such occasional differentiation according to individual commu- "ground truthing" of its own practices in use nity needs and comparative advantage within elsewhere could be mutually beneficial (and the AKDN family and within the partnership. could help to divert suggestions of AKRSP arro- Criteria agreeable to all parties would be gance that are sometimes heard from observers). developed that would allow effective differen- The 1999 Joint Review Mission noted that al- tiation of communities and would also address though external perceptions of the AKRSP are the problem that the most mature village or- consistently positive and the development model ganizations tend to be those with majority Is- is acknowledged as important, yet (still) the maili populations and that, in Chitral especially, AKRSP should be open to learning from other de- the left-out non-Ismaili villages are among the velopment initiatives. poorest. The support to be provided to Dehi Councils would be differentiated in step with Organizing for Partnership their evolving role. This is a natural area of The AKRSP has been an institutional success partnership with government. partly because of wise leadership that, for 20 Potential vehicles for the partnership element years, has emphasized close links to the field, with government are the new generation of so- where its principal clients live, and fostered a cial services projects, such as the Poverty Alle- strong sense of internal organizational equity. viation Project, which channel public funding These same values will serve the AKRSP well as through NGOs. (The AKRSP is playing a deliv- it seeks to adjust its organizational structure to ery role in this project.) But government and new realities. Current proposals include changes donors need to provide support within these to the structure of field offices and the addition projects for government capacity building so of a Policy Unit. This proposed unit has a wide that the future is not an unequal partnership. remit and it would be prudent to rank its activ- ities and initiate them progressively as staff with Developing a Strategy for Enhancing the requisite skills are identified. and Sharing AKRSP Learning The AKRSP is right to take the opportunity of The AKRSP should not rest on its laurels but a change in direction and strategic focus to ad- should develop a deliberate strategy to broaden just its organizational structure. In reorganizing, and share its learning more widely. Currently, the the AKRSP should continue to be guided by or- sharing of accumulated knowledge appears to be ganizational equity, but also by the demands of somewhat opportunistic, depending mostly on the overarching goal of forging a development AKRSP staff moving on to other jobs (see Annex coalition in the NAC through interlocking part- A) or on hosting interested parties from other nerships with all the key players. Reorganizing agencies-although the internship program does for partnership will call for the closest possible represent an important element of a strategy. interaction with the key institutions in the NAC, Sharing learning cannot simply be supply-driven. especially government and the AKDN. This goal The AKRSP should determine a target audience should be given the greatest weight in framing and develop a deliberate program to disseminate the future organization of the AKRSP. its knowledge, including areas in Central Asia out- The proposed changes in the AKRSP's field side Pakistan where similar geographical and staff management and greater devolution within social circumstances prevail. Expanding the in- the NAC thus seem appropriate, while dividing ternship arrangement toward exchange intern- the Core Office between Gilgit and Islamabad ships to other organizations worldwide would be seems inevitable given the differential pull of local 40 Future Directions and wider objectives. However, giving greatest ganizations and support for enhancing individ- weight to partnerships and considering the mix ual competencies. It needs to pursue efficiency of work during the next few years strongly sug- through differentiation of village and organiza- gests that most of the staff in the Core Office (in- tion support and through selective withdrawal, cluding the Policy Unit, if created) should be and to better connect women's development based in Gilgit. In this respect, circumstances are with other AKRSP and AKDN services. And it changing rapidly. With the help of the Internet, needs to address the absence of core leadership activities that were once "location bound" are in the women's program. now "footloose." This locational freedom allows activities and staff to be sited where their com- The Need for Incentives for Continued parative advantage is greatest. Using these prin- Community Participation ciples to guide organizational change will help Continued community participation on the scale ensure the AKRSP's continued relevance to the seen in the past will be unlikely unless incen- development challenges of the NAC. tives for participation can be maintained. This will call for even greater sensitivity and open- Social Accountability and Governance ness to community demand and demand of dif- Globally, the trend in rural development has ferent subgroups, especially the poor. The simple been toward increased accountability and ben- environment of the past is changing. The initial eficiary participation to ensure that local needs flush of PPIs is past, microfinance is shifting to are adequately reflected in program response. a new bank, and new community organization The new strategy being developed offers an structures are evolving. Support and training in opportunity for the AKRSP to shift toward a agriculture, livestock, and forestry will remain im- more open and transparent mechanism to im- portant incentives, but even here there is likely prove the responsiveness of the program. This to be some trend toward individual rather than could be done at many levels-from, at the community motivation. highest level, increased NAC representation on Nevertheless, there will be a number of the board; to increased village representational emerging areas where the AKRSP can enhance presence at program management or component incentives for community participation for the management meetings; to solicitation through benefit of the poor and communities as a whole. surveys of individual views, which are likely to These areas would include increased attention differ by gender, household, and income group to women where AKRSP interventions are at an at the village level. This could be a step toward earlier evolutionary stage; increased facilitation some degree of membership-based spin-offs of public funding, particularly in larger infra- into new specialized organizations. structure; support for emerging organizations with new functions and different incentives, in- Future Strategy-Community cluding Dehi Councils; increased focus on high- Organizations value-added commodities; continued selection The proposed shift toward a "functions-based ap- by the group of individuals for training in new proach"-in which the choice of institution skills or for exchange visits; increased attention would be based on suitability for the functions to skills relevant to migration and non-farm in- proposed"-is an appropriate evolution, pro- come and facilitation of migration to ease ad- vided the needs of women and the poor are ad- justment costs; continued attention to improving equately addressed. There is some risk in a the efficiency of marketing chains; increased functions-based approach that such considera- facilitation for other AKDN agencies to meet a tions will be sidelined. The AKRSP needs to de- broader array of community demands; support velop a vision and strategy for community for federations to add incentives related to scale; organizations that will bring women into the child care for women going to village meet- mainstream of village decisionmaking and de- ings; broader self-improvement training and ac- termine the balance between support for or- tivities; some of the increase in cost recovery 41 The Next Ascent: An Evaluation of the Aga Khan Rural Support Program, Pakistan placed in a community pool to offer as match- would tend to graduate first those villages with ing funds; and increased support for links to the majority Ismaili populations.16 The other is that private sector-for example, for bulk input sup- the AKRSP has now diversified into enterprise ad- ply and marketing. In the new, more fluid en- vice that is inevitably aimed at an entrepreneur- vironment, the analytical starting point for new ial class in better-off rural areas and in towns. The initiatives needs to be community and household issue is whether it is possible to combine equity incentives that accommodate gender differences. objectives, which would imply withdrawal from better-off villages in order to redeploy resources Differentiation and Withdrawal to poorer ones, with efficiency objectives, which There has been surprisingly little new analytical would imply staying in many villages and offer- exploration of how to either revitalize support for ing enterprise or more generalized poverty sup- village institutions or to withdraw from them or port services according to need. Currently, the differentiate. On one hand, there seems to be im- AKRSP seems to favor the latter strategy. In one patience to get away from intensive village inter- sense, equity objectives are taking second place actions and into work that is more urban, regional, to efficiency objectives. Withdrawal is complicated and national, but there is also a feeling of re- by the uneven development of village and sponsibility to organizations that are not yet ready women's organizations. Even if the AKRSP agreed to stand on their own. A strategic question is how that it would no longer visit many organiza- to balance the desire for creative institutional di- tions-but would continue a "you call us" serv- rections while not abandoning the still-needed sup- ice-this would not solve the problems for many port for the original community organizations. women's organizations, which may be in the The answer, for the present, seems to be to allow same village. Few women can easily visit the different parts of the organization to provide sup- FMU to request services. But while withdrawal port in different ways, with FMU staff continuing from villages may be difficult, there should be a their work in the villages, leaving the regional and withdrawal strategy forgroups, regardless of the central policy departments to address new themes overall status of a particular village.17 and challenges. This ought to be set more clearly within a strategic framework aimed at differenti- Functions-Based and Supra Organizations ation of support based on needs,'5 with a 10- to Make Sense, but Gender Concerns Need 15-year vision shared by all players within the Attention AKRSP and its associated partnerships. With its budgetary pressures, the AKRSP cannot Most well-established development programs continue to support close to 4,000 individual have village withdrawal strategies. These are community organizations to the same degree it based on the notion that villages reach a point did in the past, but it could build up the man- in their development where they can inde- agement capabilities of LDO representatives, pendently access resources (inputs, financial who would in turn help village institutions.18 The services, technical advice) through links with AKRSP has concluded, correctly, that this process government or other institutions. Phased with- cannot be pushed too fast (the same was found drawal from such villages allows agency re- in the India program), but that it is an appropriate sources to be redeployed to less-developed direction. While appropriate, however, there villages. The AKRSP still maintains services to are risks. The AKRSP should focus on ensuring well-established community organizations that in- that women gain rather than lose from such a dicated to the team that they could manage with- shift toward LDOs-there is a risk that they out further input, or at least with limited support. would lose from power shifts to higher levels. There seem to be two difficulties for the AKRSP This would need close monitoring. with withdrawal at the village level. One is that differentiation on the basis of need (gradual with- Balance Community with Competency drawal from the villages most capable of ac- A more radical option is for the AKRSP to shift cessing outside support for their own welfare) away from supporting organizations, toward a 42 Future Directions greater focus on the development of individual Defining a Future for Women's Organizations competences-leaving organizations with limited The women's program lacks vision, direction, and support to grow or die as they will, albeit ben- core leadership. A key question for the vision and efiting from any individual skills imparted. To future strategy is whether to try to push women's some extent the AKRSP is already moving toward organizations to "catch up" with village organiza- such a competencies model-for example, in its tions as independent and autonomous institutions enterprise work and somewhat in its proposed or to look for an alternative path. One option shift toward function-based groups. Compe- would be for the AKRSP to develop a partnership tency models are knowledge-based, offering in- with government in a program of training and sup- formation, linkages, and skills. This is different port to women Dehi councilors. Although it is un- from the organizational capacity development clear how significant the new Dehi Councils will model. Currently, the AKRSP is doing both-it be, they present an opportunity that should not be supports organizations while also responding to missed for women to participate with men in de- knowledge needs. Has the AKRSP got the bal- cisionmaking. If this turns out to be the case, the ance right? The answer for now is probably AKRSP could then gradually shift the emphasis "yes," but the AKRSP should be aware that there away from community organizations and focus for are tradeoffs here. The strategy should ac- the next phase on women's skills and abilities as knowledge this and map out a position that Dehi councilors, so that they can become more ef- may be different for villages at varying levels of fective advocates of their own interests. maturity. The AKRSP has been slow to create a broad platform for women within its own carefully fos- Influencing Devolution tered organizations. In the Northern Rural Sup- There is a major role for the AKRSP in influencing port Project (NRSP) about 10 percent of groups devolution. The AKRSP is to be commended for are now mixed, so it would appear to be realis- responding quickly to government's request to tic for the AKRSP to move in this direction also. assist with the establishment of the Dehi Coun- Furthermore, as noted by Tetlay and Raza (1998), cils and-not without risk-to support the in- with growing out-migration for employment, troductory training programs for Dehi councilors. households are increasingly becoming "female The extent to which support for the Dehi Coun- managed." Focusing on opportunities and sup- cils becomes integral to the program will have port for village-selected women leaders will un- to be determined by the rate and direction of derpin a new strategic direction for the women's evolution of these councils. Depending on that program that should include identifying more direction, AKRSP support could go further.19 In economic opportunities for women.20 Some vil- partnership with government, it could monitor lages already have women who are educated and progress and provide feedback as the process have public roles-and in due course Dehi Coun- evolves. It could do studies on Dehi Council evo- cil opportunities will increase their number. lution and attitudes of villages aimed at influ- There is also an increasing number of young men encing policy. It could learn from devolution who support women's development. experiences in other parts of Pakistan and glob- ally. It could support links between Dehi Coun- Gender-Related Incentives cils and the AKRSP's community organizations, As for the program more broadly, it will be im- which are already facilitated by many villagers portant to seek out incentives for changed be- holding positions in both organizations. It could havior with respect to gender issues-incentives further develop capacity building, including fos- for men, including religious leaders, and for tering training visits of skilled councilors to other women. For men, incentives may include more villages. There are risks of excessive political in- favorable consideration of PPIs where increased fluence from above on what should be a bottom- participation by women is being accepted and, up process. This is not a reason to remain at for religious leaders, due consideration of their arm's length; it is a reason to be involved. proposals for development. For women, incen- 43 The Next Ascent: An Evaluation of the Aga Khan Rural Support Program, Pakistan Box 5.1 The Cascading Impact of a New Vision Anew vision has a cascading impact. Suppose it was decided women's economic status, the AKRSP Enterprise Development by the AKRSP that the vision was to now help women take Section might develop a special strategy and program to pro- their place as public citizens and as members of village insti- vide relevant advisory and financial products for women. The tutions, not just in women's organizations. Suitable AKRSP pro- NRM program might devise a program to focus on technologies grams and partnerships would then be designed to contribute in which women had a substantial role and income benefit The to this goal. The first task might be an interactive program to in- point is that a new vision and strategy for the women's program crease men's support and understanding for this shift. The should affectthe wholeAKRSP program, not just a special sep- AKRSP might then offer to train women Dehi councilors and arate segment for women that is designed and implemented sep- board members of LD0s. It might be agreed with village or- arately from male activities. Thus, a new route map for all ganizations that, where appropriate, most village-levelprojects AKRSP sections would be needed to ensure that they all con- would be channeled through both men's and women's organi- sider specific activities for women, with the participation of zations in a new partnership. In the interest of improving women decisionmakers. tives may include increased credit opportunities experience in their attempts to fulfill one of their and water supply for communities where women most oft-quoted objectives: to earn more money. are taking a more active role. There are two important constraints, workload and organizational coordination. First, the The Women's Program Needs Leadership and women's social organizer (WSO) has to mediate Connection with Other AKRSP Services every contact between women's organizations Some observers have suggested that there has and FMU specialist departments, as she is usu- been some degree of regression on gender over ally the only woman staff member. Because the past decade. The mission's view is that there WSOs often serve more than 150 organizations, have been advances in some aspects, but losses they cannot afford the time to visit often. Second, in others. The task is to bring together and the Enterprise, Learning Support Unit, and Micro- make coherent what is currently separate-the finance Sections seem to function as separate op- women's and the men's programs. This task erations, not as a coordinated service. Increased needs to be overseen by a senior member of the numbers of women staff within these sections, core team with expertise in management and in and improved coordination, would help. gender programming. Gender expertise cer- tainly exists within the AKRSP's current staffing Poverty Targeting group, but this post will also require consider- The AKRSP's recently initiated pilot poverty ex- able management and personnel experience. ercise is an appropriate learning strategy to seek There is some reluctance to recruit from down- to improve poverty targeting and should be country on the basis that experience gained continued for several years. The challenge, how- there may not be relevant. However, there may ever, is to achieve cost effectiveness that could be advantages to having someone from down- be scaled up. This will call for intensive moni- country, as they are more likely to have wide toring and rapid adaptation to pursue the lever- national and international experience. The issues aging of AKRSP skills to the maximum. The use the AKRSP currently faces are common to most of at least two approaches, one more intensive, well-established development agencies in South one less intensive, would help to answer the ef- Asia that started with separate programs for ficiency question. The question to be answered men and women but have since developed co- will be whether the poverty impact of the pilot herent and integrated objectives and structures. intervention is more cost effective for poverty al- AKRSP organization and staffing needs to be leviation than the same resources put into the adjusted to help bridge the many gaps women main AKRSP program. 44 用一－-～一一一一．-－一－&－→～一一一－一‘一－-－網一一‘一網一．一一一一－－■開～一一一’-’一 F UtUre DireCtionS 〕么 45 ANNEXES ANNEX A: AKRSP SKILLS SEEDING The following is a list of where AKRSP professional staff went to contribute to development through other organizations: Destination Number Globally AKF outside Pakistan 1 UNDP 2 World Bank 2 CGIAR System 1 Within Pakistan Consultancy 2 Rural Support Program, including the NRSP 6 UNDP 1 Other NGOs 4 University 1 NAC government 1 Other AKON institutions 3 IUCN 3 Banks 1 Total 28 Note: There are a number of others, but their current work is not known to AKRSP Source: AKRSP HR staff. 47 ANNEX B: RESPONSIVENESS TO EARLIER OED RECOMMENDATIONS Responsiveness to earlier recommendations has * Introduce labor savings packages for women. been modest. * Extend the Monitoring, Evaluation, and The Second Interim Evaluation of March 1990 Research Section beyond simply monitoring. noted some weaknesses in the response to the * Codify an arbitration process at village level. recommendations of the first report, which * Cooperate with other agencies. included: * Establish a rural development academy. * Integrate infrastructure production and mar- keting and the need to identify and test The Third Evaluation did not discuss the markets. extent to which the previous recommendations had * Place more emphasis on households as the been implemented. However, the repetition of unit of observation, including the study of earlier recormnendations in the Third Evaluation labor profiles. suggests some weaknesses in adoption and imple- * Group farm-level data according to char- mentation. The main recommendations of the acteristics, location, and agro-ecological Third Evaluation (not readily discerned from the zone (an early form of the farm systems report since they were not separately listed) were: recommendation). * Take a hard look at the role of the AKRSP in * Include a benefit-cost calculation in the assess- development in the North. ment of irrigation projects. * Ensure that the savings and credit mechanisms are sustained after the AKRSP. The Second Evaluation included the fol- * Strengthen community organizations to lowing main recommendations: become semi-permanent entities. * Adjust staffing patterns to more adequately * Further fund productive and social infra- reflect changing workloads. structure. * Improve the identification of women's pro- * Stimulate local entrepreneurial capacity. gram packages. * Examine longer-term income prospects given * Strengthen staff resources in monitoring and the increasing role of non-farm income. evaluation. * Continue to be vigilant in monitoring pro- * View savings and credit issues in the wider grams and achievements in the poverty area- context of total rural financial services in the more targeted programs may be warranted. NAC. * Consider the possibility of making commu- * Link with existing marketing channels in nity organizations legal or quasi-legal entities. Pakistan. * Increase emphasis on the NRM in the next * Focus more on new technologies. phase. * Emphasize improved animal nutrition over * Identify different types of farming households increased herd size or the introduction of and involve key farmers in project design and new breeds. in evaluation of the results of experimentation. * Seek donor support for collaborative research (The farm systems proposal.) projects. * Expand training in accounting and manage- * Expand the training function. ment. 49 The Next Ascent: An Evaluation of the Aga Khan Rural Support Program, Pakistan * Focus on women of poor households, who Looking back to the earlier evaluations, a num- are often left out of women's organization ber of recommendations are still valid today; for membership or activities. example, the need to strengthen marketing link- ages, the farm systems recommendations in their The assessment of this Fourth Evaluation is various forms, the need to address productive that, weighting by relative importance, about 75 packages for women, and the need for more percent of the Third Evaluation recommendations linkages with other agencies. have been addressed to some significant extent. 50 mimilR"W . 1 * * nZ r t r Total Annual Annual project operating operating Total osts c Project osts No. of $/ cost/ Country/project Donor 1($m current) years ($m) households household householdo,b ComponentsComment Pakistan Many $83.5m 17 $3.9m (avg. 93,742 $42 $890 (17 yrs) Community development, AKRSP $36.1m 5 over 5 yrs) $385 (5 yrs) microfinance, agriculture Salaries 64% and livestock production, 0 of cost (excl. forestry, infrastructure, i capital) enterprise development, O training Pakistan Many + own $4.3m Cost data for $2.5m avg. 284,485 $9 Total of Community development, Comparable total costs NRSP endowment approx. 1 year but last two years schemes= microfinance, agriculture uncertain due partnerships 2,000 only running for 7 (incl. field approx. $11 production, infrastructure, I Habib Bank, etc. About 70 0 operations) social community organizations per social mobilizer Pakistan World Bank $32.6m 6 $4.0m (est.) 2,600 direct, $80+ $652+ Agriculture and livestock pro- ERR=13% Northern Resources about 50,000 duction, forestry, rural roads, About 12 community organ- Management Project roads, land women in development, izations per social mobilizer plan community organization, land planning, training/TA Pakistan Poverty World Bank $107m 5 $2.1m 200,000 $10 $535 Microfinance, infrastructure, Uses NRSP, AKRSP, and Alleviation Fund (but annually ($52) institution building, training, others about 40,000) community development Operating costs difficult to estimate Pakistan IFAD $25.1m 35,600 $705 Agriculture, wells, minidams, NRSP will implement Barani community fund, community organization, microenterpnrise Pakistan IFAD $22.6m 18,000 $1,255 Northern Areas Development (continued on following page) Table C.1 ffstg)n[pa a)I?toOs (flnt n n D z Total Annual Annual project operating operating Total 0 costs Project costs No. of $/ cost/ Country/project Donor ($m current) years ($m) households household householda,h Components Comment India AKRSP (Gujarat), AKRSPI $6.71m Over 5 $0.6m 507 communi- $19 $210 Community institutions, Total staff 151 1999/00 ties-about gender, microfinance, NRM, Salaries 74% of operating 32,000 training, research, policy costs households advocacy 11% from own funding o 13% women membership in 1993 Burkina IFAD $25.3m 10,000 $973i Livestock water, soil conser- Southwest Rural (direct) vation, roads/tracks, credit, Development 26,000 social infrastructure, village (including water indirect) Bangladesh IFAD $25.7m 82,000 $313 Research, water manage- Smallholder Imp. ment, rural infrastructure Ghana IFAD $60m 500,000 S120 Market infrastructure, rural 0 Village Infrastructure water a Ethiopia IFAD $20.8m 300,000 $69 Institutional support, credit, o Southern Region rural roads, seed multiplica- Cooperative tion, training Development Nepal IFAD $13.1m 25,000 $524 Irrigation, flood rehabilitation Groundwater, Irrigation & Flood India World Bank $80.2m 7 $1.9m but 80,000 $24 but $1,000 Land reclamation, credit, Sodic Lands excludes excludes community groups, adaptive Reclamation Project some costs some costs research, ag. extension, training Mexico World Bant $115.4m 10 million $12 Small-scale infrastructure One commentator says Solidarity Program funds spread too thinly, seriously compromised sustainability Brazil World Bank $156m 208,000 $749 Small-scale infrastructure Northeast Rural Development Ceara State Brazil World Bank $96m 112,000 $856 Small-scale infrastructure Northeast Rural Development Paraiba State a. IFADs average total project cost is about $36 million and average households per project about 85,000, for an average $420 per household-usually over about a 6-year project period. b. Attributing operating costs per household is very difficult since in some programs, support is for a short period to implement specific investments of a one-off kind, in other programs, costs support a long-term relationship with the communities who may be accessing funding partly from inside the program but partly from outside. c. Information provided by AKRSP India. Ln (D X Table D.1 AKRSP Timeline AKRSP/Community Organizations Microfinance NRM PPI Gender Enterprise development 1981 First AKF meeting about initiating an RDP 1982 Mr. Shoaib Sultan Khan Community savings initiated First PPI holds first community dialogue 1983 Social Organization Unit First short-term loans- Agriculture and livestock First women's organization Marketing Section formed set up interest-free 1courses initiated Pak-81 wheat introduced by AKRSP 1984 Medium-term loans- Minimum savings level set 8% interest 1985 OPO Chitral; His Highness Marketing courses initiated visits for Silver Jubilee celebrations 1986 DPO Skardu Decentralized management Separate Livestock Section First women's group within Apricot drying support First OED evaluation of loans formed a village organization in initiated Three-year forestry pilot Baltistan initiated in Gojal with IUCN/NORAD 1987 Core Office bifurcated, First improved breed Commercial and Industrial DPO Gilgit animals for collective Development Division Accounts courses initiated management formed First quality apple planting material distributed 1988 Chitral Area Development First service charge Appropriate technology Second PPIs accepted, but Project (IFAD/ADB) initiated courses initiated in new village organizations modeled on AKRSP Cn (continued on following page) 01 Table D.1 AK UZ[nln (o n i u d AKRSP/Community Organizations Microfinance NRM PPI Gender Enterprise development CID 1989 Secord OED evaluation First group loans (village Imoroved bircd distriillon organization/WCP) gradually st^ itoned to indKiduals replaced short-term loans Forcs'ry couises initiated 1990 Donor L aison Group Forned First clister organization (at Avi in Bocni FMUj o 1991 F,rst Kirm iHouseh:id S! rNe Village organization o Fis- institutional riaturity cooperative marketing Exercise discontinued 1992 Mr Shoalb SuLtan Khan Enterprise Credit Program Kail sheep introduced leaves (ECP) initiated (16%) n,cK brooding centers \i Hussain Wa'i (a, established nov pnrvatized 0 takes O%er C NIhSP in tiated-ndeled on AKRSP 1993 Astoreier Dstrict o -ided First donow joint -,onit3r;r 0 isSIon 1994 Mr Steve Rasmu>ser take; SDC report on Rural Bank 3 Secoindrm Household 1995 Oiganizational change Separate section split off Core office donsiZnig Service charges raised, MER Section rerganze loans fully collateralized EtMUS created, gjreateir danntrai'atic 1996 Formal mission statement Corporate Credit Portfolio Second PPIs accepted developed initiated in existing village Third OED evaluation First procedures manual organizations 1997 Third Farm Household Started enterprise devel- Survey opment outside village organizations 1998 Reached 95% staffing from 15% VOCP annual service ED Center formed within the program area charge 24% ECP 1999 Discontinued short-term loans Medium-term loans phased out due to poor performance-machinery loans, etc. V/WOCP renamed Group Loans Corporate Credit discontinued 2000 Dehi Councils introduced by Experimenting with government Business Committee Loans Poverty pilots initiated in Gilgit town 2001 Fourth OED evaluation -CD ANNEX E: INSTITUTIONAL SURVEY A survey of professional staff (grades 4 and Staff clearly believe that the AKRSP has high above) reveals the AKRSP to be an effective standards of openness and equity, and share organization, with a healthy and broadly positive these values themselves. However, there are institutional climate.' The average score over all signs that these values are unevenly practiced questions was 4.0 out of a possible 5.0. Thus, with (items 2.5, 2.6, and 2.7), suggesting the need for a few weaknesses noted below, the survey some improvement in performance. Women are reveals the AKRSP to be an organization staffed more positive than men. by people with a clear sense of purpose, a strong The aggregate response on the human and shared commitment to its mission, the com- resource questions (section 3) is also lower than petence to implement its programs, and a com- desirable, which indicates that staff think some mitment to monitor and learn from experience. human resource policies are unfair and that In surveys of this kind it is unusual to find no women are inadequately represented. The two scores below the midpoint of 2.5-an inspection concerns may well be interrelated. Similarly, of the table in this annex reveals that the low- although the group of questions on authority, est score for any question was 2.7. This suggests responsibility, and accountability records a high that answers may be biased upward across the score overall, there are clear indications of pos- board and that respondents have chosen to dis- sible unfairness in the application of accounta- criminate in their judgments only within the bility and in the reporting of bad news (items upper part of the spectrum of answers.2 Such 4.4 and 4.6). Management should consider an results are not unknown among populations open, focused, and well thought through where, as in the AKRSP, there has been little or response to this possible unfairness. no experience of this kind of enquiry.3 Thus, to The section on capability and competence tease out meanings requires that more impor- reflects well on the AKRSP, but there are con- tance be given to small differences in scores than cerns about coordination and centralization would be the case in a survey with a more "nor- (items 5.5 and 5.10). This may reflect current dis- mal" spread of responses. cussion about the role and performance of Field As table E.1 shows, the responses varied lit- Management Units (FMUs). It also reflects the tle by grade or regional office-a strong indi- tension inherent in spreading the Core Office cation of a highly homogenous institution. This across two locations-Gilgit and Islamabad. allows attention to be concentrated on the results There is some concern about the AKRSP's ten- for all respondents. Although the AKRSP's direc- dency toward introspection (item 3.6), but oth- tion (mission and methods) is well understood, erwise the AKRSP is clearly shown to be a the link between personal performance and learning organization (section 6) as well as being institutional goals is weaker than desired (items open and outward-facing (section 7). 1.4, 1.6, and 1.8). 59 CY) Table E.1 1AKBMW3P On tituti oa l CD z __________________________CD AI n Grd 5 Grd 7-9 Core Astore stan Chitral Gilgit 1. Direction 4.2 4.4 4.1 4.3 4.0 4.1 4.1 3.9 4.6 4.2 4.2 4.1 0 1D 1.1 I know and understand AKRSPs mission 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.8 4.9 4.4 4.8 4.7 4.8 4.7 1.2 1 know and understand my role in fulfilling AKRSP's mission 4.8 4.8 4. 4.8 4.7 4.9 4.8 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.8 1.3 The policies to achieve our mission objectives are clear 4.2 4.4 4.1 4.4 3.8 4.0 4.2 3.6 4.8 4.3 4.2 4.0 1.4 Policies to achieve our mission objectives are clearly communicated to staff at all levels 3.7 3.8 3.6 3.8 3.4 3.5 4.0 3.4 4.0 3.7 3.6 3.7 1.5 1 understand the policies that affect my role in AKRSP 4.2 4.3 42 4.3 4.0 4.0 4.3 4.0 4.7 4.1 4.3 4.1 o 1.6 Our plans are fully adequate to achieve our objectives 3.9 4.2 3.8 4.1 3.8 3.6 3.6 3.6 4.1 4.2 3.8 3.7 o 1.7 Our plans include measurable performance indicators 4.0 4.4 3.9 4.2 3.7 3.9 3.9 3.6 4.8 4.1 4.0 3.8 1.8 Performance indicators are regularly measured and reported 3.9 4.5 1 3.7 4.1 3.6 4.1 3.3 3.5 4.8 4.2 3.8 3.7 C 2. Identity and values 3.9 4.2 3.8 3.9 3.7 3.8 4.0 3.7 4.3 3.9 3.7 3.8 2.1 AKRSP advocates high standards of openness, fairness, and equity 4.0 4.4 3.9 3.9 3.7 4.4 4.3 3.6 4.6 4.1 3.5 4.1 D 2.2 AKRSP clearly articulates the standards of openness, fairness, , and equity it expects us to practice 3.9 4.2 3.9 3.9 3.9 4.1 4.0 3.7 4.2 4.0 3.7 4.0 2.3 I understand and share the values advocated by AKRSP 4.3 4.4 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.3 4.5 3.9 4.4 4.1 4.2 4.4 C: 2.4 1 practice these standards and values 4.3 4.6 4.2 4.3 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.2 4.6 4.3 4.2 4.2 - 2.5 Most people in AKRSP understand and share its standards of openness, fairness, and equity 3.5 4.0 3.3 3.6 34 3.2 3.3 3.4 4.0 3.7 3.2 3.4 0 2.6 Most people in AKRSP practice its standards of openness, fairness, and equity 3.4 3.9 3.3 3.6 3.3 3.1 3.4 3.6 4.0 3.6 3.3 3.2 2.7 People in AKRSP are rewarded fairly and in accordance with these values 3.3 4.0 3.2 3.4 3.0 2.9 4.5 3.1 1 3.6 2.9 3.3 2.8 On balance, levels of professional trust in AKRSP are high 3.9 4.2 3.8 4.0 3.6 4.0 4.0 3.6 1 4.2 3.8 3.9 3.8 2.9 I trust the professional judgments of my colleagues 3.9 4.1 i38 4.0 3.7 4.1 3.9 3.7 4.5 3.7 3.8 3.9 2.10 There is a strong sense of teamwork in AKRSP 4.1 4.3 4.1 4.3 4.0 4.0 4.0 3.7 3.9 4.3 4.3 4.0 3. Human resources 3.6 4.1 3.5 3.7 3.4 3.5 3,5 3.5 4.0 3.8 3.4 3.5 3.1 AKRSPs human resource policies are framed and operated in accordance with its values of openness, fairness, and equity 3.5 4.1 3.4 3.7 3.3 3.3 3.6 3.4 41 3.7 3.3 3.5 3.2 On balance the staff in AKRSP are well qualified to achieve its mission and objectives 4.1 4.5 4.0 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.4 4.1 3.9 4.0 3.3 On balance AKRSPs human resource policies are well adjusted to the achievement of its mission 3.6 4.1 3.5 3.7 3.5 3.4 3.7 3.5 4.2 3.8 3.4 3.5 3.4 The gender balance amongst staff in AKRSP is about right 3.1 3.6 3.0 3.2 2.9 3.2 2.7 2.9 3.2 3.4 2.9 3.1 4. Authority, responsibility, and accountability 4.0 4.4 3.9 4.1 3.8 3.8 4.0 3.8 4.6 4.1 3.8 3.9 4.1 Key decisions in AKRSP are made by people with adequate expertise and authority 3.9 4.4 3.8 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.8 4.1 4.8 3.9 3.7 3.8 4.2 Most people in AKRSP have enough authority and responsibility to do their jobs properly 4.1 4.4 4.0 4.3 3.9 3.7 4.1 3.9 4.7 4.2 4.0 4.0 4.3 I have enough authority and responsibility to do my job properly 43 4.6 4.2 4.5 3.9 3.8 4.4 4.1 4.7 4.5 4.2 4.0 4.4 Most people in AKRSP, including the most senior, are held accountable for their actions and decisions 3.6 4.2 3.5 3.8 3.4 3.7 3.6 3.3 4.2 3.8 3.3 3.7 4.5 I am held accountable for my actions and decisions 4.3 4.6 4.3 4.5 4.2 4.0 4.3 4.1 4.7 4.4 4.4 4.2 4.6 Mistakes, failures, and bad news are reported to those who need to know without fear of reprisal 3.7 4.1 3.5 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.7 3.5 4.8 3.5 3.5 3.6 5: Capability and competence 4.1 4.4 4.0 4.2 3.9 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.4 4.2 3.9 4.1 5.1 On balance AKRSP is a competent organization 4.7 4.8 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.9 4.7 4.6 4.8 4.6 4.5 4.8 5.2 Most people in AKRSP have the knowledge and skills to do their job well 4.2 4.5 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.0 4.2 5.3 Most people in AKRSP have the tools and resources to do their job well 4.2 4.7 4.1 4.4 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.6 4.4 4.2 4.0 5.4 Procedures and processes in AKRSP are well thought out and efficient 4.0 4.3 3.9 4.1 3.7 4.2 3.9 3.7 4.3 4.0 3.8 4.0 5.5 Different sections/departments are well coordinated with one another 3.6 3.8 3.6 3.7 3.4 3.7 3.7 3.3 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.6 5.6 My performance is regularly monitored and I am given constructive feedback 4.1 4.2 4.0 3.9 4.2 4.5 4.0 4.4 4.2 3.7 3.9 4.2 5.7 I have the tools and resources to do my job well 4.2 4.5 4.1 4.3 4.0 4.2 4.0 4.2 4.8 4.3 3.9 4.1 5.8 I have the skills and training to do my job well 4.2 4.6 4.1 4.4 4.0 4.0 4.2 3.9 4.7 4.3 4.2 4.1 5.9 AKRSPs organizational structure is well suited to enhancing its objectives 4.2 4.6 4.1 4.3 3.9 4.3 4.6 4.3 4.7 4.4 3.9 4.2 (coitinued oq followinj page) Table E.1 AKRSP Institutional Survey (continued) D z CD X All Women Men Grd 4 Grd 5 Grd 6 Ord7-9 Core Astore Bstan Chitral Gilgit cn CD 5.10 The balance between centralization and decentralization in AKRSP is about right 3.6 4.3 3.5 3.7 35 3.4 4.1 3.4 4.4 3.9 3.5 3.5 6. Monitoring and learning 4.1 4.2 4.1 4.2 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.1 M 6.1 AKRSP regularly reviews the external and internal environments to see if changes in mission, goals, or policies are needed 4.2 4.6 4.1 4.3 4.0 4.2 4.3 3.9 4.8 4.3 4.0 4.2 6.2 AKRSP regularly monitors its performance against relevant o indicators/benchmarks 4.2 4.6 4.2 4.3 4.1 4.0 43 4.1 4.7 4.3 4.2 4.1 o 6.3 AKRSP spends too much time and resources reviewing itself and its strategy and policies 3.6 3.3 3. 3.5 3.9 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.1 3.4 3.7 3.8 6.4 AKRSP is a learning organization, drawing lessons from experience & making positive policy & organizational changes -4:4 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.2 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.3 6.5 People in AKRSP are encouraged to avoid waste and be efficient 4.1 4.2 4.1 4.2 4.0 4.1 4.3 3.9 4.3 4.1 4.3 4.0 7. External relations 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.2 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.3 7.1 AKRSP has an active and wide-ranging program of external relations inside and outside Pakistan 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.0 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.3 C 7.2 AKRSP has many programs that depend on external partners 4.1 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.2 3.9 4.4 3.6 4.0 4.2 4.1 7.3 AKRSP should seek to expand its programs with external partners 4.2 4.1 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.5 3.8 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.4 0 7.4 External partners and other donors have a generally positive influence on AKRSP 4.4 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.0 4.3 4.3 4.6 4.4 3 7.5 AKRSP has mutually beneficial links with government agencies 4.1 4.3 4.0 4.2 3.9 4.3 3.9 3.7 4.4 4.1 4.0 4.1 -a 7.6 AKRSP should expand and deepen its links with government agencies 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.6 4.1 4.2 4.4 4.4 4.3 Maximum number of observations 170 30 139 83 43 21 20 14 9 39 46 63 ANNEX F: VILLAGES VISITED In all but 2 of the 26 villages on this list, the team half hours with the full group, then about one- applied four semi-formal questionnaires on com- and-a-half hours in breakout groups and visit- munity organizations, natural resource man- ing infrastructure sites. In nearly all cases the agement, infrastructure, and microfinance. Three women members of the team interviewed mission members spent about two-and-a-half women's groups separately. hours at each village, usually about one-and-a- Gilgit Region Baltistan Region Chitral Region Murtazabad Stak Krui Jinali Booni Mominabad Shagri Kalan Yarkhoon Lasht Khaiber Churka Baranis Thole Thugmo Kaghozi Ghulmit Daghoni Kalkatak Budalas Yugu Birir Teru Ranga Shagram Gahkuch Bala Hoto Yorjogh Kakhan, Astore Aliabad, Astore 63 ANNEX G: COMPUTATION OF SUBSIDY DEPENDENCE INDEX FOR THE MICROFINANCE OPERATIONS OF THE AKRSP i Alta n aItive metWoology Particulars 1994 1997 1998 1999 2000 (2M) S=A*(m-c)+[(E*m)-P] +K S= Annual subsidy received by AKRSP for credit operations, derived as follows: A= AKRSP concessional borrowed funds outstanding to fund the credit portfolio Rs. million 0 0 0 0 0 58.8d m= Interest rate that AKRSP would have to pay for funds if it could no longer obtain concessional funds 12% 12% 10% 6% 6% 12% c= Interest rate paid by AKRSP on concessional borrowed fund outstanding 0% 0% 0% 0% 6% E= Average annual equity or net worth of the credit operations Rs. million 200.0 450.7 495.1 517.7 601.3 601.3 P= Reported annual profit (not adjusted for inflation) Rs. million 9.1 26.7 44.5 41.4 78.6 78.6 K= Sum of all other types of annual subsidies received by AKRSP for its credit operations Rs. million 0 0 0 0 0 0 S= 14.9 27.4 5.0 (10.3) (42.5) (3) SDI=S/(LP*n) SDI= Subsidy dependence index, derived as LP= Average annual outstanding portfolio Rs. million 127.0 241.0 263.4 227.0 171.5 171.5 n- The rate of interest or service charge on AKRSP loans 7.0% 10.5% 13.1% 15.3% 19.1% 19.1% SDI- 1.7 1.1 0.1 (0.3) (1.3) (0.1) or 168% 108% 15% -30% -130% -9% RR=n*(SDI+1) RR= Required rate of service charges to eliminate subsidy 18.7% 21.9% 15.0% 10.7% -5.7% 17.3% Note: The Alternative Methodology column takes a 12% opportunity cost of capital and adds in the Pakistan Poverty Alleviation Fund [PPAF] borrowing: a. Balance of short-term borrowing from Pakistan Poverty Alleviation Fund (PPAF) at the end of 2000. b. Service charge payable to PPAF at the rate of 6 percent per annum. Source: AKRSP Microfinance Operations Financial Statements as of December 31, 2000. 65 Table H.1 AKRSP Economic Analysis Item Selected years (columns hidden for presentation): 1982-83 1984 1990 1996 2001 2039 1 Capital expenditure (rupees '000s) 1,931 1,992 5,002 14,804 2 Total operating cost (rupees '000s) adjust. by SCF 4,396 5,479 44,387 142,749 - - 3 Training (rupees '000s) 296 913 8,944 17,596 4 Research, survey, and demonstration (rupees '000s) 1,726 3,289 9,663 31,493 5 Infrastructure projects (rupees '000) 7,204 12,083 35,928 33,025 6 Credit program (net) (rupees '000s) 517 153 2,290 43,459 0 7 Total non-operating cost (rupees '000) - 9,743 16,438 56,825 125,573 - - 0 8 Total costs (rupees '000) 14,627 22,526 106,144 284,183 9 Total costs with econ. adjust (in 1999 rupees '000) 49,582 69,691 228,603 325,824 10 GDP deflator (base 1981 = 100) 115 126 181 340 11 Factor to bring to 1999 rupees 3.8 3.5 2.4 1.3 1.0 1.0 12 Hydel model net stream (Rs) worst case -1,000.0 100.0 270.0 270.0 270.0 13 Hydel model net stream IRR 22% en 14 Hydel weight factor (including "other") 0.33 15 Land development net stream worst case -1,000.0 0.0 300.0 400.0 400.0 16 Land development net stream IRR 19% 17 Land development weight factor 0.44 18 Communications net stream worst case -1,000.0 0.0 300.0 400.0 400.0 19 Communications net stream IRR 19% 20 Communications weight factor 0.23 21 Weighted model net stream -1,000 32 284 350 350 22 Aggregate model stream IRR 19% 23 Abandoned project factor (4% @ 50% exp.) 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 24 Village contribution factor+econ adjustment (30%) 1.30 1.30 1.30 1.30 1.30 25 1983 Invest-model flow (1,000) 32 284 350 350 - 26 1983 Aggegate net infrastructure stream (incl. 30% vill. cont.) -35,669,197 1,153,542 10,140,681 12,482,721 12,482,721 0 27 1984 Invest-model flow -1,000 241 350 350 0 28 1984 Aggregate net infrastructure stream -54,603,652 13,169,200 19,108,985 19,108,985 29 1985 Invest-model flow 219 350 350 0 (continued on following page) Table H. 1 AKR2 P E on ooi Analys s 3 ( On in dD CD z Item Selected years (columns hidden for presentation): 1982-3 1984 1990 1996 2001 2039 . 30 1985 Aggegate net infrastructure stream 12,887,801 20,628,569 20,628,569 CD 31 1986 Invest-model flow 219 327 350 0 32 1986 Aggegate net infrastructure stream 14,179,327 21,234,035 22,695,821 33 1994 Aggregate net infrastructure stream 2,578,816 11,335,069 34 1995 Invest-model flow 32 327 0; 35 1995 Aggregate net infrastructure stream 1,863,783 18.869,393 36 1996 Invest-model flow -1,000 219 0 0 37 1996 Aggregate net infrastructure stream -55,307,162 12,092,247 o 38 1997 Invest-model flow 219 0 CD 39 1997 Aggregate net infrastructure stream 19,193,506 40 1998 Invest-model flow 1100 41 1998 Aggregate net infrastructure stream 12,035,225 42 1999 Invest-model flow 6 263 D 43 1999 Aggregate net infrastructure stream 7,087,777 C: 44 Net benefit stream infrastructure (after econ adjust) (35,669,197) (53,450.111) (44,446,910) 171,365,232 355,338,314 28,780,669 45 IRR infrastructure only 19% 46 Number of households (hh) 15,449 30,612 62,360 83,294 94,422 0 47 Average hh. farm including extrapolation from surveys (1999 rupees) 20,270 20,684 23,349 62,106 75,515 48 Average program total farm income 313,154,393 633,175,007 1,456,068,180 5,173,049,815 7,130,230,573 0 49 Total farm income increment (@10% attrib.)+econ. adjust. O 28,481,835 101,719,327 432,530,693 606,719780 0 50 Average off-farm hh inc. extrap. from surveys (1999 rupees) 37,326 38,087 42,996 45,848 48,123 3 51 Average program total off-farm income 576,642,053 1,165,927,556 2,681,201,874 3,818,863,312 4,543,828,564 0 -0 52 Total off-farm income increment (@5% attrib.)+econ. adjust. 0 26,223,205 93,652,912 144,278,846 176,539,800 0 53 Total NRM costs after econ. adjust. 6,047,904 10,518,535.24 23,418,413.05 68,493,247.53 150,134,614.6 54 Total NRM benefits after econ. adjustment adjust down by 33% 0 0 19,207,989.16 115,333,154 275,389,630.7 55 Net benefits NRM after econ. adjust. . -6,047,904 -10,518,535.24 -4,210,423.892 46,839,906.45 125,255,016.1 56 IRR NRM only 24% 57 Total operating costs+econ. adj. ('99 rupees, 2000 to 2009 at 50%) 16,741,503 19,046,743 107,411,877 183,894,300 93,767,850 58 Total costs+econ. adj. ('99 rupees) 49,581,714 69,691,153 228,602,509 325,824,168 93,767,850 59 Net infrst. + NRM + 5% nonfarm ben.-tot. cost (-R&D & infrst.) (61,028,444) (59,878,554) (85,417,519) 110,631,601 563,365,279 28,780,669 60 ERR of above stream 16% 61 Net infrst. + 10% net fm. inc. + 5% nonfarm ben.-tot. cost (-R&D & infrst.) -54,980,540 -20,878,184 20,512,232 496,322,387 1,044,830,043 28,780,669 62 ERR of above stream 33% 1,992 5,002 14,804 Note: Rows 1 to 9: AKRSP costs and totals with Standard Conversion Factor (SCF) economic adjustments. (SCF adjusts financial figures for economic distortions in the economy) Rows 12 to 20: simplified model net benefit streams derived from AKRSP case studies using worst-case scenarios. Row 21: weighted model net stream weighted by share of each type of infrastructure in total. Row 23: factor to allow for 4 percent abandoned projects spending 50 percent of expected costs. Row 24: to factor to add the village contribution not included in costs. Rows 25 to 43: aggregation of annual infrastructure model net benefit streams. Rows 44 and 45: total of all annual streams and Economic Rate of Return. Row 47: average household farm income taken from the 1991 and 1997 Socio-Economic Surveys projecting forward and back by an assumed 2 percent annually. Row 48: number of households times farm income. Row 49: incremental total farm income increases assuming 10 percent is attributable to AKRSP and applying economic adjustments. Rows 50 to 52: methodology as for farm income above but taking the non-farm income element from the Socio-Economic Surveys and attributing 5 percent to AKRSP. Rows 53 and 54: taken from AKRSP NRM economic analysis with economic adjustments and adjusting benefit stream down by 33 percent to allow for some optimism in assumptions. Rows 57 and 58: total AKRSP operating costs and total costs + economic adjustments; maintenance level of operating costs assumed to year 2009 at 50 percent of most recent. Row 59: net infrastructure benefit stream plus net natural resource management benefit stream plus five percent attribution of estimated non-farm income derived from surveys deducting total AKRSP costs with adjustment for those costs already accounted for the in the infrastructure and NRM net benefit streams. Row 61: similar to row 59 but instead of AKRSP NRM net benefit stream using the assumption of 10 percent of the aggregate net farm income attributable to AKRSP based on extrapolation from Socioeconomic Surveys. Would include some degree of double counting. D CY) CD The Next Ascent: An Evaluation of the Aga Khan Rural Support Program, Pakistan Table H.2 lD@iti i Based on Natural Resource Management Based on attributed share of total farm Methodology net benefit projections income increments AKRSP base case ("best bet" Worst case infrastructure and infrastructure and no 33% 33% reduction in Attributing Attributing NRM reduction) NRM benefits 10% to AKRSP 20% to AKRSP Attributing 5% non-farm benefits 24% 16%b 33% 58% Attributing zero non-farm benefits 17% 11% 22% 38% Attributing 5% non-farm benefits but with investment and operating costs up 20%a 19% 12% 30% Not estimated a. While this gives an indication of the sensitivity to costs, it is not a realistic scenario since, with 17 years of cost data in the analysis, a large share of costs are actuals not projections (operating costs are assumed to continue for 10 years at half the final level). b. Deducting an estimate of the micro-finance costs from this scenario (assuming they are 10% of credit disbursements since these were not separately accounted for until recently) changes the ERR by less than 1%. 70 Annexes Main Enterprise Assumptions in Economic Analysis Infrastructure assumptions are in Synthesis of (AKRSP 2000e). Assumptions in the latter three the Findings from Impact Studies (AKRSP 2000o), reports were taken partly from case study village and in AKRSP documents on Communications interviews and partly from generic assumptions, Projects (AKRSP 2000f), Land Development Pro- but they are similar to those below. jects (AKRSP 2000d), and Power Generation Table H.3 Cost of improved Unimproved Improved (kg/kanal seed as % of Enterprise (kg/kanal) or value) revenue or actual Comment Wheat grain 75 112/125/141 (varieties) 4% 10 years to grow wheat on new land- Border price of Rs9.3/kg fodder first used New and old land treated differently 90% adoption of improved seed provided Wheat straw 262 213/230/309 (varieties) Maize grain 107 150 4% Maize straw 750 1,100 Potato 900 500 5% (seed rate 100kg@Rs8) Alfalfa (dry) 850 1,450 2% 70% on new land Fuelwood 40kg/tree@Rs2.7 Costs 63% of benefits After '96: Poplar, 50% Robina, 16% Russian Olive, 19% Willow, 15% Timber Rs.2,000/tree or Rs5/kg Costs 50% of benefits varies by species Fruit (e.g., apple) 80kg/tree@Rs3O (apricot dried, Rs20) Cost 8% of revenue 80% on exiting land Apple 88% before '92, 45% after Wastage 10% Alternate bearing allowed for Yield start year 5 Cattle: calves/yr 0.5 Milk (incremental) 5.31t/day@ Rs18/It Sheep (incremental 19kg@Rs75 Rs.1,000 annual maintenance meat) cf. local Sheep (incremental 1kg/day milk) Medication impact Assumed 50% treated saved Vaccination mortality Cattle saved 4% impact Sheep saved 2% Note: An overall Standard Conversion Factor economic adjustment of 0.89 was used and commodity-specific adjustments for some traded commodities. 71 ANNEX I: THE KARAKORAM AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE FOR THE NORTHERN AREAS (KARINA) KARINA, established in 1984 at Jaglote on the formers for further observation and will release Karakoram Highway, has the mandate to con- 3 to 5 wheat varieties in 2002. duct and coordinate applied research for the KARINA has also established observation and Northern Areas (it does not cover Chitral) on field adaptive lines of 7 main varieties of maize crops, fruits and vegetables, livestock, fisheries, (Agaiti-85, Azam, Kisan, Pahar, a few hybrids), land, and water, and to transfer the findings to and vegetables and fodder (legumes). It plans farmers. to produce about 4 metric tons each of wheat After many years of relative inactivity, KARINA and maize seed during 2001 for further multi- now has new leadership and a much-improved plication in farmers' fields. During the preced- program. It currently has 11 scientists, led by a ing year, KARINA produced about 2.4 metric tons director, and an annual nondevelopment budget of wheat and 1.6 metric tons of maize seed, dis- of about Rs. 4 million (average over 1997 and tributed to about 200 farmers, mainly from Chi- 2001). Having established a scientific staff and las and Diamer-mostly those who approached obtained almost 1.5 percent of the Pakistan Agri- KARINA. A promising commercial cultivar of culture Research Council's nondevelopment muskmelon (Ravi) has been developed for the budget, it is poised to play a greater role in double-cropping zone. A successful cultivation enhancing productivity in the Northern Areas. technique has been developed for two medici- The institute has five stations, four of them nal plants (black zera and kuth). They have located in the Northern Areas (Skardu, Ghizer, also collected, tested, and introduced local and Astore, and Chilas). The fifth, a trout multipli- exotic varieties of fruits, but this is little known cation and research station, was recently estab- to farmers. KARINA's progeny orchards have a lished in Kaghan as a collaborative partnership collection of about 12 deciduous and other fruit with the AKRSP. tree varieties: apples, apricots, pears, cherries, While in recent years the impact of KARINA peaches, plums, almonds, grapes, pomegranates, at the village level has been modest, about 1,000 figs, and olives. Work on rootstock resistance to lines and cultivars of major wheat varieties have crown gall for cherry trees is under way. been tested over the past five years. Two culti- While KARINA's work program covers many vars of wheat, Chakwal-86 and Chakwal-97, are relevant activities, it needs a better-articulated being promoted in areas near KARINA and in the strategy and the resources to deliver its findings Diamer District. In 2001, KARINA had more to farmers and to interact with them. It needs a than 750 lines of wheat of more than a dozen technology transfer unit that, among other things, varieties in observation trials for seed purity should promote effective partnerships with local and disease resistance. In 2000, a mass selection institutions such as the AKRSP as vehicles to of 80 lines was done and, based on their yield reach a widespread farming community. There performance, disease resistance, and grain-straw is a need for increased institutional linkages ratio, KARINA has selected 20 "better" per- and a strategy forum. 73 ANNEX J: STATISTICAL TABLES The tables in this Annex were supplied by the AKRSP. Table J. 1 Program area G Gilgit' Chitral Baltistan Total Social organization Organizations (number) 1,460 1,140 1,168 3,768 Village organizations 798 758 815 2,371 Women's organizations 662 382 353 1,397 Organization members (number) 62,229 39,706 39,542 141,477 Village organizations 35,485 29,116 29,821 94,422 Women's organizations 26,744 10,590 9,721 47,055 Total savings (Rs. million) 269.86 94.64 65.75 430.25 Village organizations 182.32 76.82 60.50 319.64 Women's organizations 87.54 17.82 5.25 110.61 Women in development Credit disbursedb (Rs. million) 156.75 27.00 7.36 191.10 Group loans 1,256 472 120 1,848 Beneficiary households 54,347 12,132 3,794 70,273 WO specialists (number) 2,984 2,958 1,804 7,746 Productive infrastructure and engineering services PPIs initiated (number) 638 779 802 2,219 Beneficiary households (number) 64,996 49,215 52,524 166,735 Cost of initiated PPIs (Rs. million) 217.75 304.45 245.74 767.94 PPIs completed (number) 515 720 682 1,917 Physical progress (% completed) 81 92 85 86 Agriculture Improved seeds (kgs) 253,752 121,565 514,254 889,571 Total fruit trees (millions) 2.05 0.56 1.36 3.97 VO/WO agriculture specialists (number) 1,535 1,418 835 3,788 a. Includes Astore. b. Includes short-term, medium-term, and women's organization credit. 75 The Next Ascent: An Evaluation of the Aga Khan Rural Support Program, Pakistan Table J.2 ODU TI@O R @(D(BU@O Program area Gilgit Chitral Baltistan Astore Total number Area (square km) 28,500 14,850 25,850 5,000 74,200 Population (2000 est.) 383,542 318,689 313,826 70,000 1,086,057 Average household size 13 7 10 8 10 Number of rural households 29,050 42,492 31,072 8,850 111,464 Number of villages (approx.) 327 463 234 99 1,123 Potential VOs (no.) 654 956 699 199 2,508 Average population per VO 481 420 385 352 433 Average number of households per VO 36 56 38 44 44 Source AKRSPs Monitoring, Evaluation, and Research Section. Population, household, and village data based on Northern Areas Census. 81/98. 76. 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Gilgit Number of VOs established 129 286 312 345 371 409 446 470 494 501 539 559 676 701 768 810 828 798 Membership (households) 12,050 23,120 24,950 26,412 26,500 26,500 26,500 26,500 26,500 26,500 26,500 24,793 30,366 31,414 33,718 35,938 36,391 35,485 Percentage of total rural households 32 61 66 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 65 80 83 89 95 96 94 37,900 in VOs in 2000 Chitral Number of VOs established 49 115 149 168 224 323 370 436 480 522 559 581 604 623 678 707 737 758 Membership (households) 3,399 7,492 9,615 10,667 12,383 15,236 16,655 18,574 19,856 21,124 21,742 22,601 23,323 23,778 25,677 26,884 27,853 29,116 Percentage of total rural households 8 18 23 25 29 36 39 44 47 50 51 53 55 56 60 63 66 69 42,492 in VOs in 2000 Baltistan Number of VOs established - - 22 53 159 247 342 446 514 565 597 630 675 741 771 782 806 815 Membership (households) - - 1,204 2,882 6,145 9,089 12,162 17,286 20,084 22,126 23,416 24,596 25,764 28,102 29,022 29,463 29,498 29,821 Percentage of total rural households - - 4 9 20 29 39 56 65 71 75 79 , 83 90 93 95 95 96 31,072 in VOs in 2000 Total Number of V0s established 178 401 483 566 754 979 1,158 1,352 1,488 1,588 1,695 1,770 1,955 2,065 2,217 2,299 2,317 2,371 Membership (households) 15,449 30,612 35,769 39,961 45,028 50,825 55,317 62,360 66,440 69,750 71,658 71,990 79,453 83,294 88,417 92,285 93,742 94,422 Percentage of total rural households 14 27 32. 36 40 46 50 56 60 63 64 65 71 75 79 83 84 85 11,1464 in VOs in 2000 CX CD The Next Ascent: An Evaluation of the Aga Khan Rural Support Program, Pakistan Table J.4 Year Organizations (no.) Membership (no.) Bank deposits (Rs. millions) Village Organizations 1983 178 15,449 0H84 1984 223 15,163 516 1985 82 5,157 4 55 1986 83 4,192 535 1987 188 5,067 15.09 1988 225 5,797 15.52 1989 179 4,492 14.2/ 1990 194 7,043 14.45 1991 136 4,080 14.12 1992 100 3,310 20 12 1993 140 3,550 32.21 1994 106 1,947 34.95 1995 121 4,208 32.3H 1996 110 3,839 39.4/ 1997 152 5,123 32.91 1998 82 3,870 36./1 1999 18 1,455 E.7 2000 54 680 -7.34 Total 2,3/7 94,422 319.64 Women's Organizations 1984 76 3,701 0.53 1985 27 1,183 0 76 1986 21 614 0.65 1987 37 1,446 1.38 1988 69 1,913 1.49 1989 51 1,851 2.51 1990 106 3,484 2.1 1991 89 2,527 324 1992 84 2,538 4 0 1993 103 3,451 5 30 1994 94 3,079 996 1995 91 3,244 1471 1996 126 3,856 14.36 1997 161 4,752 13.?2 1998 117 3,930 21.13 1999 71 3,625 8.0/ 2000 68 1,861 6 20 Total 1,397 47,055 13040 78 Table J.5 . . an Gilgi Chitral Indicator 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Organization Number of women's organizations 20 49 64 104 136 161 178 194 221 254 287 329 353 382 Savings (cumulative) Total (Rs. million) 0.17 0.432 0.92 1.82 2.37 3.31 3.96 5.4 6.87 8.72 11.27 14.07 16.01 17.82 Per group (Rs.) 8,500 8,571 14,375 17,500 17,426 20,559 22,247 27,835 31,086 34,331 39,268 42,766 45,354 46,649 Credit Short term (Rs. million) 0 0 0 0 0 0.003 0.35 0.087 0.2 0.22 0.27 0.356 0.356 0.356 Number of organizations 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 4 7 8 10 15 15 15 Medium term (Rs. million) 0 0 0 0 0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Number of organizations 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 WOCP (Rs. million) - - - - - 0.184 0.54 1.564 3.64 6.77 11.55 16.286 16.286 16.286 Number of organizations - - - - 5 13 43 94 149 228 300 300 300 Production packages and training (number of groups participating) Vegetable demonstration Plots/year 4 8 48 0 50 6 10 3 17 9 9 84 98 120 Nurseries/year 4 9 3 3 4 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 Home-based poultry/year (WOs) 2 0 7 64 117 0 0 0 0 6 36 12 8 3 Total production packages/year 10 17 58 67 171 6 10 3 17 18 45 96 106 123 (continued on following page) CD Sum m ary Indicators of Progress in Institution Building and Table J5 Technology Transfer for Women's Programs in Chitral, z Baltistan, and Gilgit (continued) Baltistan Indicator I O Jil 2000 Organization Number of women's organizations 49 104 142 225 296 353 m Savings (cumulative) Total (Rs. million) - 0.08 0.45 0.88 2.50 4.03 5.25 C Per group (Rs.) - 1,633 4,327 6,197 JL: 11,111 13,615 14,873 Credit o Short term (Rs. million) 0 0 0.005 0.005 0.26 0.26 0.26 Number of organizations 0 0 2 2 21 21 21 Medium term (Rs. million) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Number of organizations 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 WOCP (Rs. million) - - 0.05 1.17 1.83 3.98 Number of organizations - - 1 20 56 120 C Production packages and training (number of groups participating) C Vegetable demonstration Plots/year 12 35 9 10 174 0 0 Nurseries/year 0 0 1 38 4 0 0 - Home-based poultry/year (WOs) 13 90 51 11 189 0 0 Total production packages/year 25 125 61 59 367 0 0 ________3 Summary Indicators of Progress in Institution Building and Table J5 Technology Transfer for Women's Programs in Chitral, Baltistan, and Gilgit Gilgit Indicator Up to 86 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1998 1997 1998 1999 2000 Organization Number of women s organizations 129 146 186 215 245 270 306 349 372 471 501 570 633 660 662 Savings (cumulative) Total (Rs. million) 1.97 3.18 4.42 6.71 8.46 11.05 13.93 18.18 26,11 39.45 50.77 60.48 78.24 83.92 87.538 Per group (Rs.) 15,271 21,781 23,763 31,209 34.531 40,926 45,523 52,092 70,188 83,758 101,337 106,105 123,602 127,152 132,233 Credit Short term (Rs. million) 0.01 0.49 2.06 2.9 3.07 3.4 3.73 3.93 4.15 4.24 4.24 4.33 4.347 4.347 4.347 Number of organizations 10 62 185 226 238 267 283 302 313 323 323 326 328 328 328 Medium term (Rs. million) 0 0.2 0.62 1.00 0.97 1.09 1.27 1.27 1.27 1.27 1.27 1.51 2.047 2.047 2.047 Number of organizations 0 5 12 23 23 25 26 26 26 26 26 28 33 33 33 WOCP (Rs. million) - - - 0.6 2.04 1.55 5.504 10.399 19.601 19.41 59.88 93.28 116.629 116.629 116.629 Number of organizations - - - 2 25 44 72 118 189 309 436 589 700 700 700 Production packages and training(number of groups participating) Vegetable demonstration Plots/year 0 23 32 41 0 12 46 1 2 4 26 22 3 2 1 Nurseries/year 6 0 1 12 6 0 10 0 41 0 4 2 0 0 0 Home-based poultry/year (WOs) 0 0 3 59 9 21 28 36 37 187 174 31 6 4 10 Total production packages/year 6 23 36 112 15 33 84 37 80 191 204 55 9 6 11 :3 a aD The Next Ascent: An Evaluation of the Aga Khan Rural Support Program, Pakistan Ta ble J . 6 ?PDy a f tu Ps A: GILGIT Completed Region/type of project Initiated (no.) Number Percent Irrigation 368 313 85 Feeder channels/pipe irrigation 313 266 85 Lift irrigation 16 11 69 Storage reservoir 30 29 97 Siphon irrigation 5 4 80 Sedimentation tank 4 3 75 Channelization of rivers - Transport 131 107 82 Link roads 94 78 83 Bridge/link road 22 18 82 Pony tracks 15 11 73 Foot bridges 0 Others 65 57 88 Protective works 44 40 91 Boundary walls 2 2 100 Nursery 5 5 100 Hydel scheme 9 7 78 Flour mill - Mud-flow control 2 2 100 Super passage 1 1 100 Water supply/delivery 2 0 0 WO Projects 74 38 51 Water delivery/supply 55 25 45 Vocational schools 1 1 100 Pipe irrigation 1 1 100 Barbed wire 8 5 63 Link road 1 1 100 Agriculture nursery 1 1 100 Pony track 2 0 0 Sanitation 4 4 100 Washing center -- Microhydel 1 0 0 Community centers - Community bathrooms - - Total 638 515 81 82 Annexes Table J.6 B: CHITRAL Completed Region/type of project Initiated (no.) Number Percent Irrigation 315 298 95 Feeder channels/pipe irrigation 279 264 95 Lift irrigation 2 2 100 Storage reservoir 20 20 100 Siphon irrigation 10 9 90 Sedimentation tank 1 1 100 Channelization of rivers 3 2 67 Transport 213 200 94 Link roads 184 175 95 Bridge/link road 25 21 84 Pony tracks 3 3 100 Foot bridges 1 1 100 Others 246 222 90 Protective works 71 65 92 Boundary walls - - - Nursery - - - Hydel scheme 166 153 92 Flour mill 1 1 100 Mud-flow control - - - Super passage - - - Water supply/delivery 8 3 38 WO Projects 5 0 0 Water delivery/supply 4 0 0 Vocational schools - - - Pipe irrigation - Barbed wire - Link road - - - Agriculture nursery - - - Pony track - - - Sanitation - - - Washing center 1 0 0 Microhydel Community centers Community bathrooms - - - Total 779 720 92 (continued on following page) 83 The Next Ascent: An Evaluation of the Aga Khan Rural Support Program, Pakistan Table J.6 C: BALTISTAN Completed Region/type of project Initiated (no.) Number Percent Irrigation 436 369 85 Feeder channels/pipe irrigation 388 323 83 Lift irrigation 14 13 93 Storage reservoir 30 29 97 Siphon irrigation 4 4 100 Sedimentation tank - - - Channelization of rivers Transport 143 118 83 Link roads 96 72 75 Bridge/link road 10 9 90 Pony tracks 37 37 100 Foot bridges 0 0 Others 209 185 89 Protective works 89 81 91 Boundary walls 78 76 97 Nursery - Hydel scheme 9 7 78 Flour mill - Mud-flow control - - Super passage - Water supply/delivery 33 21 64 WO Projects 14 10 71 Water delivery/supply - Vocational schools - Pipe irrigation - - Barbed wire -- Link road - Agriculture nursery - Pony track Sanitation 1 1 100 Washing center - - Microhydel - - Community centers 5 2 40 Community bathrooms 8 7 88 Total 802 682 85 84 Annexes :mr.ITiMiwamrma lvm'WWWEM "W'WWHWa by Region and Type (cumulative) D: PROGRAM AREA Completed Region/type of project Initiated (no.) Number Percent Irrigation 1,119 980 88 Feeder channels/pipe irrigation 980 853 87 Lift irrigation 32 26 81 Storage reservoir 80 78 98 Siphon irrigation 19 17 89 Sedimentation tank 5 4 80 Channelization of rivers 3 2 67 Transport 487 425 87 Link roads 374 325 87 Bridge/link road 57 48 84 Pony tracks 55 51 93 Foot bridges 1 1 100 Others 520 464 89 Protective works 204 186 91 Boundary walls 80 78 98 Nursery 5 5 100 Hydel scheme 184 167 91 Flour mill 1 1 100 Mud-flow control 2 2 100 Super passage 1 1 100 Water supply/delivery 43 24 56 WO Projects 93 48 52 Water delivery/supply 59 25 42 Vocational schools 1 1 100 Pipe irrigation 1 1 100 Barbed wire 8 5 63 Link road 1 1 100 Agriculture nursery 1 1 100 Pony track 2 0 0 Sanitation 5 5 100 Washing center 1 0 0 Microhydel 1 0 0 Community centers 5 2 40 Community bathrooms 8 7 88 Total 2,219 1,917 86 85 The Next Ascent: An Evaluation of the Aga Khan Rural Support Program, Pakistan Ta ble J.7 @ @ Y 7 ®9 o 0 A: GILGIT No of AKRSP grant Disbursement Completion Region/type of project projects (Rs.'000) Rs.'000 Percent Number Percent Irrigation 368 122,715 92,955 76 313 85 Feeder channels 294 97,617 69,544 71 248 84 Pipe/siphon irrigation 23 8,247 7,584 92 21 91 Lift irrigation 16 10,502 9,552 91 11 69 Storage reservoirs 30 5,521 5,546 100 29 97 Sedimentation tank 4 639 540 85 3 75 Tunnel (irrigation channel) 1 189 189 100 1 100 Channelization of rivers - - - - - - Transport 131 43,033 31,925 74 107 82 Link roads 94 29,152 20,667 71 78 83 Bridge/link roads 22 9,147 6,728 74 18 82 Pony tracks 15 4,734 4,530 96 11 73 Foot bridges - - - - - - Others 65 22,898 16,339 71 57 88 Protective works 44 11,244 10,100 90 40 91 Boundary walls 2 192 184 96 2 100 Nursery 5 489 450 92 5 100 Hydel scheme 9 9,617 4,985 52 7 78 Flour mill 0 0 0 0 0 0 Mud-flow control 2 220 202 92 2 100 Super passage 1 189 161 85 1 100 Water supply/delivery 2 947 257 27 0 0 WO Projects 74 29,102 12,716 44 38 51 Water delivery/supply 55 25,545 11,194 44 25 45 Vocational schools 1 50 50 100 1 100 Pipe irrigation 1 304 304 100 1 100 Barbed wire 8 1,646 491 30 5 63 Link road 1 92 92 100 1 100 Agriculture nursery 1 50 49 98 1 100 Pony track 2 570 318 56 - 0 Sanitation/washing center 4 218 218 100 4 100 Microhydel 1 627 - 0 - 0 Community centers 0 0 0 0 0 0 Community bathrooms 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total 638 217,748 153,935 71 515 81 86 Annexes Table J.7 @nt ti PU@ @ o ODy TyWo of Peooo as ofDooonDw2@ a aalm B: CHITRAL No of AKRSP grant Disbursement Completion Region/type of project projects (Rs.'000) Rs.'000 Percent Number Percent Irrigation 315 90,379 77,152 85 298 95 Feeder channels 266 68,677 63,170 92 255 96 Pipe/siphon irrigation 23 15,670 8,201 52 18 78 Lift irrigation 2 351 333 95 2 100 Storage reservoirs 20 4,454 4,392 99 20 100 Sedimentation tank 1 309 309 100 1 100 Tunnel (irrigation channel) 0 0 0 0 0 0 Channelization of rivers 3 918 747 81 2 67 Transport 213 67,534 59,985 89 200 94 Link roads 184 55,105 48,889 89 175 95 Bridge/link roads 25 11,372 10,043 88 21 84 Pony tracks 3 752 748 99 3 100 Foot bridges 1 305 305 100 1 100 Others 246 143,130 129,504 90 222 90 Protective works 71 20,328 18,559 91 65 92 Boundary walls 0 0 0 0 0 0 Nursery 0 0 0 0 0 0 Hydel scheme 166 114,282 107,182 94 153 92 Flour mill 1 141 141 100 1 100 Mud-flow control 0 0 0 0 0 0 Super passage 0 0 0 0 0 0 Water supply/delivery 8 8,379 3,622 43 3 38 WO Projects 5 3,410 2,377 70 - 0 Water delivery/supply 4 3,016 2,063 68 0 Vocational schools 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pipe irrigation 0 0 0 0 0 0 Barbed wire 0 0 0 0 0 0 Link road 0 0 0 0 0 0 Agriculture nursery 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pony track 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sanitation/washing center 1 394 314 80 - 0 Microhydel 0 0 0 0 0 0 Community centers 0 0 0 0 0 0 Community bathrooms 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total 779 304,453 269,018 88 720 92 (continued on following page) 87 The Next Ascent: An Evaluation of the Aga Khan Rural Support Program, Pakistan Peduative OfesteeouG Peies @ots and Ta ble J.7 l D i Pl@i@@0 & C: BALTISTAN No of AKRSP grant Disbursement Completion Region/type of project projects (Rs.'000) Rs.'000 Percent Number Percent Irrigation 436 132,616 93,459 70 369 85 Feeder channels 345 103,732 73.217 71 283 82 Pipe/siphon irrigation 47 21,571 14,016 65 44 94 Lift irrigation 14 3,930 3,005 76 13 93 Storage reservoirs 30 3,383 3,221 95 29 97 Sedimentation tank 0 0 0 0 0 0 Tunnel (irrigation channel) 0 0 0 0 0 0 Channelization of rivers 0 0 0 0 0 0 Transport 143 51,769 41,107 79 118 83 Link roads 96 42,930 33,652 78 72 75 Bridge/link roads 10 4,642 3,351 72 9 90 Pony tracks 37 4,197 4,104 98 37 100 Foot bridges 0 0 0 0 0 0 Others 209 59,704 50,762 85 185 89 Protective works 89 28,996 23,371 81 81 91 Boundary walls 78 9,655 9,324 97 76 97 Nursery 0 0 0 0 0 0 Hydel scheme 9 6,454 6,213 96 7 78 Flour mill 0 0 0 0 0 0 Mud-flow control 0 0 0 0 0 0 Super passage 0 0 0 0 0 0 Water supply/delivery 33 14,599 11,854 81 21 64 WO Projects 14 1,649 1,162 70 10 71 Water delivery/supply 0 0 0 0 0 0 Vocational schools 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pipe irrigation 0 0 0 0 0 0 Barbed wire 0 0 0 0 0 0 Link road 0 0 0 0 0 0 Agriculture nursery 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pony track 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sanitation/washing center 1 56 56 100 1 100 Microhydel 0 0 0 0 0 0 Community centers 5 1,093 630 58 2 40 Community bathrooms 8 500 476 95 7 88 Total 802 245,738 186,490 76 682 85 88 Annexes Ta ble J.7 i jl? @@@@ DDy 77000 00 PU@fGeGo B D:PROGRAM AREA No of AKRSP grant Disburiement Completion Region/type of project projects (Rs.'000) Rs.'000 Percent Number Percent Irrigation 1,119 345,710 263,566 76 980 88 Feeder channels 905 270,026 205,931 76 786 87 Pipe/siphon irrigation 93 45,488 29,801 66 83 89 Lift irrigation 32 14,783 12,890 87 26 81 Storage reservoirs 80 13,358 13,159 99 78 98 Sedimentation tank 5 948 849 90 4 80 Tunnel (irrigation channel) 1 189 189 100 1 100 Channelization of rivers 3 918 747 81 2 67 Transport 487 162,336 133,017 82 425 87 Link roads 374 127,187 103,208 81 325 87 Bridge/link roads 57 25,161 20,122 80 48 84 Pony tracks 55 9,683 9,382 97 51 93 Foot bridges 1 305 305 100 1 100 Others 520 225,732 196,605 87 464 89 Protective works 204 60,568 52,030 86 186 91 Boundary walls 80 9,847 9,508 97 78 98 Nursery 5 489 450 92 5 1 100 Hydel scheme 184 130,353 118,380 91 167 91 Flour mill 1 141 141 100 1 100 Mud-flow control 2 220 202 92 2 100 Super passage 1 189 161 85 1 100 Water supply/delivery 43 23,925 15,733 66 24 56 WO Projects 93 34,161 16,255 48 48 52 Water delivery/supply 59 28,561 13,257 46 25 42 Vocational schools 1 50 50 100 1 100 Pipe irrigation 1 304 304 100 1 100 Barbed wire 8 1,646 491 30 5 63 Link road 1 92 92 100 1 100 Agriculture nursery 1 50 49 98 1 100 Pony track 2 570 318 56 - 0 Sanitation/washing center 6 668 588 88 5 83 Microhydel 1 627 - 0 - 0 Community centers 5 1,093 630 58 2 40 Community bathrooms 8 500 476 95 7 88 Total 2,219 767,939 609,443 79 1,917 86 89 The Next Ascent: An Evaluation of the Aga Khan Rural Support Program, Pakistan Buoonoy ataofPuoduativoJQ Physi( O Table J.8 R Gilgit Chitral Baltistan Total Number of projects initiated 638 779 802 2,219 Cost of projects initiated (Rs. millions) 217.75 304.45 245.74 767.94 Number of beneficiary households 64,996 49,215 52,524 166,735 Physical progress of projects 81% 90% 85% 84% Number of projects completed 515 720 682 1,917 Table J.9 PPIs initiated Cost Completed PPIs Year (no.) (Rs. millions) per year (no.) 1983 104 15.30 23 1984 112 17.50 91 1985 103 21.90 81 1986 93 17.50 62 1987 159 24.60 116 1988 186 32.30 139 1989 144 25.49 118 1990 166 35.10 133 1991 137 26.71 119 1992 111 23.04 113 1993 110 26.07 128 1994 76 19.49 81 1995 122 44.45 109 1996 94 41.17 119 1997 97 67.83 109 1998 149 102.78 139 1999 137 84.79 83 2000 119 239.94 154 Total 2,219 865.96 1,917 Note: Year additions may not tally due to ongoing revisions. 90 Table J. 10 ib oabi U @-N n of T O Approp. Farm Cluster Literacy/ Vocational All Year Agriculture Forestry Livestock Poultry Marketing Accounts technology machinery hatchery TBAs numeracy training subjects Regular Courses 1983 46 0 45 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 91 1984 45 0 61 69 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 175 1985 67 0 85 72 38 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 262 1986 136 0 89 58 49 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 332 1987 143 0 124 58 49 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 390 1988 207 0 200 217 48 33 28 0 0 0 0 0 733 1989 331 50 124 139 47 60 74 a 0 0 0 0 825 1990 481 48 158 290 47 153 37 0 0 0 0 0 1,214 1991 339 138 111 156 21 300 222 31 0 0 0 0 1,318 1992 254 196 91 162 18 274 0 0 4 0 0 0 999 1993 245 104 124 96 9 216 32 0 8 a 0 0 834 1994 205 90 81 184 64 90 59 0 8 0 0 0 781 1995 200 173 12 245 172 368 30 0 0 0 0 0 1,200 1996 330 216 ! 210 208 235 285 40 0 0 6 6 0 1,536 1997 124 121 481 144 622 417 60 0 0 0 51 177 2,197 1998 306 131 120 38 445 40 0 0 0 10 23 152 1,265 1999 168 438 92 86 1,181 30 0 0 0 113 45 341 2,494 2000 228 11 97 675 366 61 0 0 0 34 126 636 2,234 Total 3,855 1,7 16 2,305 2,897 3,411 2,343 582 3 1 20 163 251 1,306 18,880 (continued on following page) Co C(D (0 Table J. 10 TUDD VmOinin@ =DlDOD 7@ U0 n @ G @ntinOD z x Approp. Farm Cluster Literacy/ Vocational All Year Agriculture Forestry Livestock Poultry 'Marketing Accounts technology machinery hatchery TBAs numeracy training subjects Refresher and Other Courses 1984 89 0 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 149 1985 *27 0 68 14 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 109 m 1986 97 0 151 18 32 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 298 1987 119 0 141 25 24 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 309 1988 129 0 76 15 15 22' 0 0 a a a 257 0 1989 70 0 195 12 23 00 0 0 0 300 0 1990 369 25 475 89 21 0 0 0 0 a 0 979 1991 390 43 536 60 20 0 37 0 0 0 0 0 1,086 D 1992 440 68 635 178 23 115 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,459 1993 1,069 68 798 325 25 188 0 0 0 0 0 0 2,473 1994 988 124 876 400 161 339 6 0 0 0 0 0 2,894 1995 570 128 500 243 22 152 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,615 1996 506 223 765 344 0 299 0 0 a 6 0 0 2,143 1997 423 55 398 323 0 325 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,524 C 1998 396 81 313 185 118 289 0 0 0 10 17 191 1,600 1999 234 106 597 302 61 137 0 0 0 23 27 163 1,650 0 2000 102 16 410 177 109 278 0 0 19 48 583 1,742 -0 Total 6,018 937 6,994 2,710 654 2,144 43 0 0 58 92 937 20,587 Nnrihen(0 NVote: Annual totals may not tally due to ongoing revisions. The Corn Office has not maintained the annual breakdown since 1998 doe to a change in M&E reporting systems. 0 03 le J. 11 - Th Teak i P of @oce o Approp. Farm Cluster Literacy/ Vocational All Year Agriculture Forestry Livestock Poultry Marketing Accounts technology machinery hatchery TBAs numeracy training subjects Regular Courses 1983 2 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 1984 2 0 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 1985 5 0 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 14 1986 8 0 5 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 16 1987 9 0 5 4 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 23 1988 12 0 9 10 4 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 39 1989 8 2 6 10 4 3 5 0 0 0 0 0 38 1990 25 3 7 15 4 12 5 0 0 0 0 0 71 1991 21 7 6 13 2 24 21 1 0 0 0 95 1992 15 10 5 15 2 21 0 0 10 0 0 69 1993 18 7 7 8 1 14 3 0 1 0 0 0 59 1994 16 5 5 14 5 5 4 0 1 00 0 55 1995 16 13 2 18 12 21 2 0 0 0 0 0 84 1996 22 19 14 15 13 18 3 0 0 1 1 0 106 1997 15 14 i 34 14 81 30 1 0 0 0 2 6 197 1998 22 12 9 2 27 3 0 0 0 1 2 13 91 1999 16 43 12 8 118 2 0 0 0 6 3 12 220 2000 15 1 5 56 27 4 0 0 0 2 5 29 144 Total 247 136 140 209 308 160 46 1 3 10 13 60 1,333 (continued on following page) CD X (0 CD Table J.11 The Training Program-Number of Courses (continued) z Approp. Farm Cluster Literacy/ Vocational All Year Agriculture Forestry Livestock Poultry Marketing Accounts technology machinery hatchery TBAs numeracy training subjects Refresher and'Other Courses 1984 2 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 1985 3 0 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 1986 6 0 6 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 15 1987 7 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 14 1988 4 0 3 1 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 O 1989 3" 0 5 1 2 0 D0 0 0 0 0 11 1990 19 2 20 6 2 0 0 0 a a 0 49 1991 22 3 32 5 3 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 75 G 1992 "23" 4 26 8 '2 8 0 0 a 0 0 0 71 1993 39 4 3 15 2 8 0 0 a 0 0 101 1994 36 9 33 29 8 18 1 0 a a 0 0 134 1995 33 10 19 22 1 9 0 0 a 0 0 0 94 1996 25 7 31 19 0 20 0 a a 1 0 0 103 1997 29 20 21 18 0 17 0 0 0 0 0 0 105 1998 30 6 16 12 9 15 0 0 0 1 1 2 92 _0 _0 1999 26 7 30 19 7 11 0 0 0 1 1 2 104 o 2000 10 1 25 11 11 21 0 0 0 1 2 18 100 Total 317 73 311 170 53 128 11 0 0 4 4 22 1,093 Note: Annual totals may not tally due to ongoing revisions. The Core Office has not maintained the annual breakdown since 1998 due to a change in M&E reporting systems. AKRSP Production Packages for Women's Organizations, Table J.12 Region, Cumulative to December 31, 2000 Note: This table has not been updated since 1997 because the new LF-based M&E systems/progress reports for the current phase do not accommodate it. The table is retained only to keep numbering consistent with previous OED evaluations. Information on the above indicators is available in regional offices. Annexes Ta I e J 1 3 . School level Primary Middle Secondary Total Gilgit Government Male 237 66 48 351 Female 136 15 14 165 Both 251 5 2 258 AKES Male 2 3 1 6 Female 3 5 7 15 Both 65 28 13 106 Chitral Government Male 463 43 42 548 Female 153 24 5 182 Both 0 0 0 0 AKES Male 10 0 0 10 Female 51 16 8 75 Both 0 0 0 0 Baltistan Government Male 175 40 31 246 Female 89 15 6 110 Both 224 12 4 240 Total Government Male 875 149 121 1,145 Female 378 54 25 457 Both 475 17 6 498 AKES Male 12 3 1 16 Female 54 21 15 90 Both 65 28 13 106 Girls' schools (%) 49 49 33 47 95 Table J.14 AKRSP Sources of Income, by Donor frupees 'O O Os) CD (D x Per- cent- 0 Donor 83 1984 S195 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Total age Aga Khan Foundation (AKF) Network 14.852 10,048 12,819 17,411 114,200 8,346 9,253 8,262 18,481 8,422 7,079 15,339 11,121 5,989 4,082 2.625 5,968 6,445 180.742 7 AKF Pakistan 10,960 7,160 5,901 7,663 7.778 5,251 7,819 6,959 17,078 7,101 5,086 12,676 11,121 5,989 4,082 2,625 5,968 6,445 137,662 5 M AKF Canada 1,420 2,357 1,398 1,199 2,013 1,107 720 1,303 1,403 1,321 1,993 2,663 18,897 1 AKF USA 1,329 3,193 4,430 3,992 12,944 0 AKF UK 1,143 531 2,327 4,119 417 1,988 714 11,239 0 0 Canadian International Development Agency 5,439 9,245 11,240 14,778 18,595 27,533 38.093 15,062 20,635 46,044 37,401 77,063 25,837 93,236 25,963 23,888 26,238 33,025 549,315 20 Alberta Aid 236 2,192 3.486 4,062 467 545 10.988 0 US Agency for International Development 1,426 4,097 5,820 5,950 17,293 1 C Ford Foundation 1,325 496 1,821 0 Heifer International 1,518 40 139 1,697 0 Overseas Development Agency 327 913 2,092 3,471 181 33,809 21,946 22,013 65,900 17,977 34,582 19,316 36,740 23,446 30,927 289,461 204,533 141,474 949,108 34 OXFAM 603 552 544 1,447 1.701 283 530 822 857 7,339 0 Common European Community 2,391 2,428 3,481 9,069 4,618 16,046 13,726 2,281 39,669 53,076 39,277 32,665 218,727 8 Eastern Electricity 176 88 249 513 0 The Netherlands Government 4,109 7,669 20,584 30,899 37,662 15,386 26,660 37,340 31.1771 41,324 42.351 135,468 i 430,6291 16 Konrad Adenauer Foundation 1,299 1,814 3,387 1,199 39.398 1 World Conservation Union 1,198 1,701 2,899 0 0 Norwegian Agency for International Development 1 14,034 13,498 15,3921 22,586 20,265 16,187 23,177 24,788 28,728 29,348 208,003 8 Deutsche Gesellschaft fur TechnischeZusammenarbeit/ BMZ 8,897 4,906 7,349 16,442 15,808 22,549 1 16,640 6,086 98,677 4 The World Bank 860 2,610 3.470 0 Local bodies and Rural Development Department 89 89 30 208 0 Northern Areas Council 884 195 1,079 0 Government of Pakistan 3,048 334 3,382 0 JICA 1,309 941 759; 3,009 0 SOC 990 14,000 9,270; 24,260 1 Total 22,782 23,039 36,301 51,305 70,777 110,587 109,771 59.256 168.033 133,527 156.093 208,953 147,766 157,440 275,094 417,377 336,143 258,313 ,752,557 100 US$'000 equivalent 1,739 1,572 2.279 3,081 4.068 6,144 5,344 3,192 7,060 5,324 5,555 6,835 4,692 4.384 6,722 9,287 6,843 4,891 89,012 TablIe J . 15 Per- 1982- cent- Applicationfindicator 83 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Total age Expenditure Capital expenditure 1,931 1,992 2,673 3,715 3,367 7,191 3,203 5,002 11.315 8,715 15,797 2,237 5,678 14,804 9,372 15,637 72,625 6,044 191,298 7 Salaries & consultancies 1,798 2,577 3,893 6,305 9,812 18,907 20,961 25,557 31,831 34,774 36.774 60,151 74,833 104,799 81,004 93,602 87,337 96,275 791,190 29 Travel 485 471 742 1,161 1,420 4,251 4.130 5,620 7.022 6,726 7,425 7,404 9,991 9,542 10,505 11,416 12.976 13,339 114,626 4 Administration 36 131 141 239 196 5,059 4.636 5,545 3.421 6,516 9,249 5,222 6,982 8,508 8,736 10,324 11,062 9,478 95,481 3 Office maintenance 370 576 1.076 1,828 2,279 1,671 2,311 2,907 6,753 4,772 5,307 4,446 8,142 6,912 7,285 10,982 9.206 13,096 89,919 3 Vehicle operation 264 341 577 515 527 2,750 3,537 4,688 7,098 7,333 9.592 10,382 14,461 14,045 15,018 17,443 15,167 14,865 138.603 5 WB evaluation 6,213 6,213 0 Total operating cost 4,884 6,088 9,102 13.763 17.601 39,829 38.778 49,319 67,440 68,836 84,144 89,842 126,300 158,610 131,920 159,404 208,373 153,097 1,427,330 52 Training 296 913 2,752 4,575 6,839 4,794 8,960 8,944 8,895 10,122 11,197 11,221 15.391 17,596 18,066 20,317 20,862 19,631 191,371 7 Research, survey, and demonstration 1,726 3,289 4,492 3,802 9,414 3,054 3,916 9,663 11,688 13,248 16,859 22,595 30,104 31,493 39,077 45,746 57,986 59,531 367,683 13 Infrastructure projects 7,204 12,083 13,665 15,490 20,519 26,397 27,046 35,928 27,411 24,575 26,879 19,326 31,781 33,025 59,357 79,846 84,294 88,741 633,567 23 Credit program (net) 517 153 5,745 6.727 15,065 13,796 8,874 2,290 707 12,874 29,584 31,643 36,400 43,459 66,202 (21,446) (51,277) (51.553) 149,760 5 Total nonoperating cost 9.743 16,438 26,654 30,594 51,837 48,041 48.796 56,825 48,701 60,819 84,519 84,785 113,676 125,573 182,702 124,463 111,865 116,350 1,342,381 48 Grand total 14,627 22,526 35,756 44,357 69,438 87,870 87,574 106,144 116,141 129,655 168,663 174,627 239.976 284,183 314,622 283,867 320,238 269,447 2,769,711 100 US$'000 equivalent 1,116 1,603 2,244 2,664 3.990 4,881 4,263 4,891 4,882 5,169 6.002 5,713 7,621 7,914 7,689 6,317 6,520 4,210 83,477 Factorto bring to 1999 rupees 381 3.48 3.32 3.22 308 2.81 2.58 2.42 2.15 1.96 1.80 1.59 1.39 1.29 1.14 1.06 1.00 0.94 Exchange rate 13.11 14.05 15.93 16.65 1740 18.00 20.54 21.70 23.79 25.08 28.10 30.57 31.49 35.91 40.92 44.94 4912 64.00 Op. cost ('000) in 1999 rupees 18,602 21,163 30,202 44,325 54,290 111,828 99,910 119,347 144,798 134,599 151,045 142,575 176,176 204,327 150,080 168,238 208,373 143,911 Efficiency indicators Adminas%of total 0 1 0 1 0 6 5 5 3 5 5 3 3 3 3 4 3 4 Op. cost as % of total excl. credit 32 24 24 27 22 36 34 38 48 45 45 38 37 37 25 30 39 34 52 Salaries/cons as% of total 12 11 11 14 14 22 24 24 27 27 22 34 31 37 26 33 27 36 29 Travelas%of total 3 2 2 3 2 5 5 5 6 5 4 4 4 3 3 4 4 5 4 Trainingas%of total 2 4 8 10 10 5 10 8 8 8 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 Res./surv./demoas%oftotal 12 15 13 9 14 3 4 9 10 10 10 13 13 11 12 16 18 22 13 Infrastructureas%oftotal 49 54 38 35 30 30 31 34 24 19 16 11 13 12 19 28 26 33 23 Creditnetas%oftotal 4 1 16 15 22 16 10 2 1 10 18 18 15 15 21 -8 -16 -19 5 Total no. of VOs 178 401 483 566 754 979 1,158 1,352 1,488 1,588 1,695 1.770 1,955 2,065 2,217 2,299 2.317 2,371 Total no. of households 15.449 30.612 35,769 39,961 45,028 50,825 55,317 62,360 66,440 69,750 71.658 71,990 79,453 83,294 88.417 92,285 93,742 94,422 Households per community 87 76 74 71 60 52 48 46 45 44 42 41 41 40 40 40 40 40 $Op.cost/hhin1999$ 25 14 17 23 25 45 37 39 44 39 43 40 45 50 35 37 45 45 $ Infrast. cost/hh in 1999 $ 36 28 26 25 29 30 26 28 18 14 14 9 11 10 16 19 18 15 D . $ Credit per household 3 0 11 11 21 16 8 2 0 7 15 14 13 14 17 -5 -11 -9 Source: AKRSP and OED analysis. Table J.16 AKRSP Staff Strength, 1987-2000 z ,Distri- bution Category 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 (D) Management 9 10 10 13 13 13 12 13 11 -11 12 11 9 9 2 Senior professionals 21 16 25 50 49 52 55 53 36 22 - 34 29 45 45 47 13 Junior professionals 61 62 78 100 112 105 104 126 152 163 166 162 157 152 163 I 45 < Support 53 49 55 59 51 57 56 77 35 34 36 33 22 18 17 5 Drivers/auxiliaries 7100 102 9 172 117 121 125 136 127 127 128 35 o Total 233 237 270 317 325 343 354 441 348 351 372 372 362 351 364 100 Percent increase 2 14- 17 3 6 3 25 -21 1 6 0 -3 -3 4, CD (0 Table J.17 Consolidated Picture of Rural Support Programs, as of December 2000 (number, unless otherwise noted) C ARSO NRSP SRSC PRSP GBTI LPRP SGA TRDP Total Category 183 1992 1989 1998 1995 1997 1972 1998 Districts 6 8 4 Village, community, and women's organizations 3,!68 i 11,661 3,450 1 3,290 139 312 214 177 23,011 Membership 141,477 259,490 104,747 69,319 2,695 10,160 1,082 14,760 603,730 0 I (0 Average membership of organizations - 38. 22 30 21 19 33 5 83 26 - VO/CO/WO savings (Rs. millions) 430.25 295.26 43.93 48.75 0.38 3.06 - 5.64 827.27 Number of village specialists trained 22,681 68,231 40,890 31,701 1,361 2,353 25 4,097 171,339 Amount of credit disbursed (Rs. millions) 1,450.40 216232 610.39 1 6.10 19.44 47 4 Amun f rdidsbred(s.mllos)145l40 I2,285.98 I 6.2 603 2.60 6.00,21 1947 4* .4n Number of credit beneficiaries 590 100 145,484 1 16,505 44,984 875 345 80 2,694 801,067 Number of physical infrastructure projects completed 1,917 2,311 1,424 -30 i 62 73 11 2,380 8,208 Figure K.1 Aga Khan Rural Support Program Core and Regional Offices SecretaryN z RPM ROCirlRPM HR& ADMIN Finance Research Development Mir-nac Islamabad Islamabad Islamabad Islamabad PM-HR & A- PM-Finance- PM-P & R PM-ED Director of Finance Core Core Manager HR Core Linkages Councilor PM-C & S HRMntrM&E _ Financial rConsultant Analyst - Coodinaor _ System CoodintorAnalyst. R aMonitor _Loan Portfolio Auditor -Economist C Librarian to Ecno is C Figure K.2 Aga Khan Rural Support Program (RPO, e.g., Baltistan) CD z CD X Regional Program Manager GaD Coord - - Secretary rn 0 Managr Manger anage MangernMnage LS Ar& orsryFiaceEvlatonIfrstutueMoane Lerin oca Khaplu Skardu Shigar Kharmang Manager Manager Manager Manager Mantoing Moan EMngerrs Manaerr er DeeMne Manager Manager Manager Manager D g oetyFnneEauto nrsrcuevelopment Mcoiac upr e n Admin & Research & Engineering Unit - 0 FMs Micro Finance 0 Figure K.3 AKRSP (Micro-Finance) U) Director Finance C: o PM Micro Finance RPO Chitral RPO Gilgit Syst oArays RPO Baltistan - Coordinator MF Regional Manager FiaCorAnays Regional Manager Micro Finance (C)Micro Fmnance MF Monitor - Micro Finance Loan Portfolio Micro Finance Monitor Auditor (Core) F Monitor FMUs FMUs FMUs ANNEX L: MAIN PROGRAMS Under the umbrella of the community organi- tributed as the price of admission for commu- zations, the AKRSP provides support in the four nity grants and individual loans backed by the main program areas discussed below: microfi- savings collateral. More recently, withdrawal nance, productive physical infrastructure (PPI), has been permitted. natural resource management (NRM), and enter- Changing Circumstances Callfor Clarification prise development, together with the human of Strategy and Responsibilities. Total savings resource development associated with these declined for the first time in 2000, but rose mar- programs. The evaluation team assessed each of ginally in 2001, and the figure for loans disbursed the four program areas separately, again apply- has been declining since 1997. The AKRSP is ing the standard OED evaluation criteria. This now preparing for the establishment of a new annex provides the details of that assessment. national-level microfinance bank, although there are several steps to be completed before this Microfinance becomes a reality. The AKRSP would be a major shareholder in the new bank. The AKRSP's past Relevance history of changing credit products and its recent The objectives of the AKRSP Microfinance Pro- attempt at strengthening its financial management gram, as presented to the mission, are as follows: system demonstrate responsiveness in the micro- * Create a large capital base through regular finance program to the lessons of experience. savings. However, changing circumstances and the pro- * Provide sustainable access to microfinance posal for the new bank are highlighting the services. need to clarify objectives with respect to finan- * Devise simple and appropriate financial man- cial sustainability and poverty alleviation strat- agement systems for village and women's egy. Before moving forward, it will be important organizations. to first redefine the basic objective, then rede- * Improve financial and managerial skills of vil- fine the target market and credit products and lage and women's organization office bearers. establish the modalities of coordination between * Establish a sustainable financial institution, the AKRSP and the new bank. Recent World Bank Country Assistance Strategies Efficacy (CASs) continue to cite the importance of encour- Microfinance Program's Role in the Develop- aging NGOs and community-based organiza- ment of Village and Women's Organizations. tions to broaden service delivery and improve From the outset, the AKRSP has stressed savings equality, and the need to increase agricultural by community organizations as an investment in productivity by improving the allocative effi- social organization and as the capital base for ciency of factor markets, including credit. The investments in productive opportunities. Since AKRSP microfinance program is certainly con- the savings program has been designed to col- sistent with this. However, the savings element lect small amounts from rural households at has not always been an open savings program. regular intervals through community organiza- Until recently, savings were compulsory, con- tions, this system has been very effective in 101 The Next Ascent: An Evaluation of the Aga Khan Rural Support Program, Pakistan reducing transaction costs and mobilizing say- million in 1997, there has been a decline since ings of poor households. While saving to a cer- then to Rs. 224 million in 1998 (loans outstand- tain level was compulsory, the microfinance ing: Rs. 253 million), Rs. 163 million in 1999 program was helped for some time by the dif- (loans outstanding: Rs. 201 million), and down to ferential interest rates and potential for arbi- Rs. 127 million in 2000 (loans outstanding: Rs. 142 trage-borrowing at low rates, saving at high million). This is partly because of the downturn rates. The program has demonstrated potential in the economy and reduced demand and the for capital accumulation and sound use of credit AKRSP's attempt to reduce portfolio risk, but and has been instrumental in developing local mostly because of increased internal lending capacity in financial management. A total of Rs. within communities, although increased interest 429 million has been generated by the commu- rates on all credit products have also contributed. nity organizations and a cumulative credit of Rs. Increasing Internal Lending. Internal lending, 1,459 million has been provided to 590,100 bor- earlier called village banking, is a self-managed rowers since initiation of the credit program in credit program. The community organization 1983. More than 3,700 people have been trained lends its collective savings to the borrowers, who in bookkeeping and accounts, including many are also its members, for productive and other pur- managers of community organizations. poses. Lending terms and conditions are set inter- Decline ofSavings and Credits. Changes have nally by the community organization itself. When recently emerged that need to be addressed in the internal loans are not repaid the community new AKRSP strategy. Total savings declined for organization is faced with a difficult decision, the first time in 2000 to Rs. 429 million from Rs. either deducting the payment from the borrower's 432 million in 1999 (table L.1), although they savings, which some community organizations are have recently increased again. The leveling-off in reluctant to do for fear of decapitalizing the the rate of savings increase has largely come organization, or rescheduling the loan, which about because of the reduced volumes of com- many allow, but which risks a decline in lending pulsory savings as savings reserves have built up, discipline and erosion in the confidence of savers. and some competitive savings opportunities have Both of these outcomes risk disintegration of the emerged elsewhere. On the credit side, while social capital nurtured over many years. there had been rapid growth in the AKRSP's Internal lending is an inevitable outcome of credit disbursements from Rs. 1 million in 1983 increasingly mature communities that feel more to Rs. 91 million in 1994, and to a high of Rs. 277 confident in self-management and have a greater Box L.1 The AKRSP's Credit Program The AKRSP's credit program, split into group and individual total deposits of Rs. 2.6 billion.a It was clear from interviews loans, meets the needs of a wide range of borrowers. It has pro- in villages that there was an overwhelming preference for vided villagers with loans for agriculture and enterprise devel- credit from the AKRSP because of its timely disbursement and opment as well as for consumption-particularly beneficial for low transaction costs. But the recent increases in interest women. The loan portfolios of the commercial banks are lim- rates have led to client dissatisfaction. There were also com- ited. Most of them do not extend small loans. Commercial plaints of the single maturity date, and it wasfeltthatthe dura- banks do not have mobile banking services and most villages tion of loans should be extended. The AKRSP has now made are still outside the reach of formal banking. By 2001, there were changes in the single maturity dates in individual loans and has 28 branches of commercial banks and 21 branches of the Coop- allowed for payment in installments, so there is still a high erative Bank in the Gilgit and Ghizer districts. Commercial demand for AKRSP loans. However, internal lending has damp- banks have been able to accumulate an impressive amount in ened credit demand. deposits. Three of the banks with the largest outreach in the Northern Areas were found by the evaluation team to have a. National Bank, Habib Bank, and the Northern Areas Cooperative Bank. 102 Annexes (RS million Organization 1995 1996 1 1997 1998 1999 2000 Village organizations 199 248 1 281 318 327 319 Women's organizations 48 62 75 96 104 111 Total 247 311 357 414 432 429 Source: AKRSP Microfinance Section, data as of Dec. 31, 2000. understanding of financial matters. It is esti- effort is commendable, extremely important, mated that in the Gilgit Region about 18 percent and should continue. One option that has been of the community organizations are undertaking explored is to have two community funds- internal lending, and in Hunza, close to 50 per- one operating at higher risk and open to inter- cent. While this is in keeping with the AKRSP nal lending, and the other one not. objective of making villagers self-sufficient, there Increased Level of Overdues and Write-Offs. are doubts about whether it will be sustainable Recovery performance has recently been under at present village skill levels. Experience from threat, but the program should be able to recover the field shows large variations in the capacity from this with the improved appraisal processes of community organizations to manage these now being applied. Recent figures show a high activities. The social dynamics of the organiza- ratio of overdues2 to loans outstanding-above tions are highly variable and it is not always pos- 20 percent, with a high of 25 percent in 1999- sible to secure the savings against default. Given and a loan loss ratio increase to 4.1 percent in the origin of the community organizations and 2000 from 1.7 percent in each of the two pre- their role in other activities, as well as the his- vious years.3 Portfolio at risk' peaked at 7.2 per- tory of compulsory saving by many poor peo- cent in 1999 (see table L.2). A review of loans ple, the AKRSP may have lifted the controls on overdue reveals a marked regional difference in village lending too soon. While the AKRSP has the pattern of repayments. In 2000, Baltistan limited leverage in the internal decisionmaking District had the highest ratio at 48 percent, and of the organizations, it has been very active in Chitral the lowest at 16 percent. A main reason developing policies and procedures to guide was the substantial volume of risky lending for the community organizations and the process. potato production in Baltistan, where plant dis- It has been promoting a set of uniform Internal ease and marketing problems affected repayment Lending Guidelines and providing training.' This capacity. Table L.2 Portfolio Quality of Micro'financen Measures 1998 1999 2000 A. Loans outstanding at the end of the period (Rs. million) 252.7 201.4 141.6 B. Loans overdue at the end of the period (Rs. million) 50.9 50.4 30.8 C. Portfolio at risk at the end of the period (Rs. million) 10.7 14.5 7.9 D. Loan loss reserve (Rs. million) 8.1 11.0 6.3 E. Overdue as % of outstanding (B/A) 20.1 25.0 21.8 F Portfolio at risk as % of outstanding (C/A) 4.2 7.2 5.6 G. Loan loss reserve as % of portfolio at risk (D/C) 76.0 76.2 80.0 Source: AKRSP 2000j. 103 The Next Ascent: An Evaluation of the Aga Khan Rural Support Program, Pakistan Strengthening ofMicrbfinanceManagement. L.3). The increase is a result of staff growth and Since the last OED evaluation, a number of the improvement of the financial inanagement commendable changes have been made in the system. The AKRSP's microfinance operations are operations of the Microfinance Program that not directly comparable with most microfinance should improve overall efficiency and sustain- NGOs in Pakistan because of the small size of ability and help address the overdues problem. their loan portfolios compared with the AKRSP, These changes include: different implementation methodologies, and * Upward revision of interest rates for all credit their limited time in operation.6 However, a products comparison of the AKRSP with other NGOs in * Rationalization of credit products the Microfinance Group indicates relative effi- * Strengthening of the institutional capacity of ciency (see table L.4). The AKRSP's operating cost the Microfinance Section ratio is among the lowest. But this is due to its * Strengthening of the financial management large volume of performing assets, which may capability by introducing: 1) new monitoring have reached a saturation point, while the vol- reporting tools (AKRSP 2000j), 2) loan write- ume of loans may be growing for other NGOs off and loan loss provision policies, 3) a relative to their costs. Table L4 also indicates that policies and procedures manual for the micro- the efficiency of the AKRSP's Microfinance Pro- finance operation, and 4) an automated man- gram is better than the industry average of 114 agement information system (MIS). microfinance institutions around the world. * And, as the most fundamental change, seg- regation of the Microfinance Program, as Institutional Development Impact autonomous operations from other main- The institutional development impact of the stream AKRSP activities, from January 2001 in AKRSP Microfinance Program has been sub- preparation for the new bank. stantial and has meshed well with the commu- nity and investment activities. However, the Efficiency proposal for the new bank presents a fresh chal- Overall, efficiency is substantial when compared lenge, coming at a time when AKRSP microfi- with Pakistan and global standards. While the nance is somewhat fragile. operating cost5 ratio over average portfolio out- Enhancing Local Financial Management standing increased to 11.3 percent in 2000 from Capacity. The AKRSP has played an important 7.1 percent in 1998, this is well below the indus- role in the training of village-based accountants try standard of 13 percent to 21 percent (see table and managers. Nevertheless, there is further need Indicator 1998 1999 2000 A. Operating cost (direct costs only) (Rs. million) 18.7 19.2 19.4 B. Average performing assets (Rs. million) 326 476 565 C. Average portfolio outstanding (Rs. million) 263 227 172 D. Operating cost ratio over average performing assets: (A/B) (standard = 5 - 16%) 5.8 4.0 3.4 E. Operating cost ratio over average portfolio outstanding: (A/C) (standard = 13- 21%) 7.1 8.5 11.3 F. Cost per unit of money lent (Rs) 0.08 0.12 0.15 G. Cost per borrower (op.cost/no.of borrowers) (Rs) 551 719 894 Source: AKRSP 2000. 104 Annexes Table L.4 E ffi cieco . MBB AKRSP peer group in MBB, Microfinance Group Microfinance South Asia all participants in Pakistan Program (n = 9) (n = 114) (n = 10) Operating costs Average loan portfolio 12% 20% 31% 15% Operating costs Borrowers $16 $19 $150 $16 Borrowers Staff 389229 111 N/A Source: AKRSP 2000h. for strengthening their capacity to manage the currently being tested in each Field Management financial systems at the village level, particularly Unit. Once fully installed, the system is expected given the emergence of internal lending. More to help reduce the workload of the microfi- training of women managers is also needed to nance officers and improve the financial man- increase their ownership and autonomy in record agement of the credit program. New reporting keeping and the management of village accounts. formats have been established to provide in- Strengthening of the Microfinance Section formation on efficiency, portfolio quality, and Capacity. The AKRSP has strengthened its Micro- sustainability. finance Section-increasing microfinance officers There are significant risks for poverty outcome at the field level from 6 in 1995 to 31 by the end in the shift toward Microfinance Section auton- of 2000. In addition, a loan portfolio auditor, a omy, and finally the microfinance bank. The financial analyst, and a systems analyst were move risks divorcing microfinance activities added to its core staff. The AKRSP also created somewhat from the complementarity that other a separate cost center for the Microfinance Pro- program components could exercise on the gram and all direct and indirect costs were credit and savings portfolio. charged to the Microfinance Program as a step In the past, there was thought that there was toward financial sustainability. As a result, the an advantage in integrating the credit activities operating costs of the Microfinance Program with technical assistance from other program increased from Rs. 2.8 million in 1995 to Rs. 19.4 components. While under the particular cir- million in 2000. cumstances of the AKRSP's unusually well-coor- The changes over the past three years aimed dinated program this may have been the case, at portfolio quality improvement have led to an global experience has shown that this may actu- increase in cost per unit of money lent, and an ally hurt credit more than help it, providing the increase in the cost per borrower (see table opportunity for borrowers to default on the L.3), while the average amount lent per borrower grounds of faulty technical advice. has gone down and the number of loans and the With separate institutions--the AKRSP and the credit amount being overseen by each credit offi- proposed new bank-the advantage of securing cer have decreased appreciably. This is likely to loan repayments as an incentive for further result in some permanent increase in the cost of AKRSP investments at the village level could be lending, but this is expected to be partly com- weakened, but the intention appears to be to pensated by improved quality of lending in the withhold investments from defaulting villages. future. The AKRSP is also now building a com- For financial sustainability-with potential pos- puterized management information system. It is itive impacts for poverty in the longer term-the 105 The Next Ascent: An Evaluation of the Aga Khan Rural Support Program, Pakistan shift to a new bank is appropriate at this stage 2000. This is explained by the increase in inter- of the program. However, design of the respon- est rates, improved recovery performance, and sibilities of the parties and relationships between the increase in loan volumes, Another source of them needs to be carefully considered, and the significant increase in funds available has come focus on the poverty objective sustained. from investment income. No income was being generated from investments in 1995, but by the Sustainability end of 2000, the AKRSP had improved its fund Sustainability of the credit program over the management by investing its idle funds in high- years has been good, with a 17-year record of yielding returns. generally strong savings and loan performance Recent Increase in Overdues. The increased and modest levels of subsidy by industry stan- level of overdues, mentioned earlier, is largely dards. With respect to financial sustainability, the a legacy of a particular recent credit operation AKRSP's Subsidy Dependence Index (SDI) is failure, mainly with individual loans (previously estimated to be a very favorable negative 130 per- called enterprise loans) for potato production in cent (Annex G), indicating no subsidy. However, Baltistan, which faced production and market- three coefficients used in the calculation bias it ing problems. In the mid 1990s, the AKRSP toward financial sustainability, depending on attempted to rapidly expand its credit portfolio methodology used. through experimentation with lending products, First, the interest used is the concessional but without proper appraisal procedures. Poverty Alleviation Fund rate. The AKRSP argues However, the AKRSP has been proactive in that it cannot borrow from commercial banks, reevaluating its loan products and quick to ter- so the Poverty Alleviation Fund (PAF) is its minate poorly performing products. It has now appropriate opportunity cost. Nevertheless, it cur- amended its internal policies and procedures. In rently has sufficient funds of its own and has addition, the AKRSP has introduced loan write- done little recent borrowing, but in Pakistan off and loan loss provisioning policies, and, at the opportunity cost of capital is estimated by the same time, intensified collection efforts at the the World Bank at closer to 12 percent. field level. Second, other subsidies, in the form of oper- In January 2001, the AKRSP Microfinance Pro- ational support from the rest of the program, are gram started testing more systematized guidelines treated as zero. The AKRSP argues that these are for delinquency management. This requires more very difficult to calculate since many are shared frequent contact between borrowers and micro- with the rest of the program, and that this shar- finance officers and is likely to raise costs, but ing cuts both ways-non-microfinance AKRSP these costs are expected to be at least partly off- staff and facilities help microfinance, but the set by improved efficiencies from the new man- reverse is also true. This is probably correct. agement systems. Considering the regional Third, the investment income from unused differences in the overdue pattern, an adequately funds is included in the calculation. The AKRSP differentiated approach with particular attention argues that, in accordance with the decision of to the Baltistan District is required and appears the Board, these funds remain with the Micro- to be well in hand. Its effect on repayment per- finance Section. This would not normally be formance needs to be closely monitored. included in an SDI. However, excluding the Sustainability and Establishment of a New investment income and the equity involved also Bank. The mission did not appraise the sus- presents methodological problems. The right- tainability of the proposed new bank since NAC hand column in Annex G adjusts for the PAF activities will only be part of the total business. funding only. This shows a virtually zero sub- We simply note that sustainability in the program sidy. Alternative, less favorable methodological region of AKRSP-the NAC-is different from treatments still do not show high subsidy levels. sustainability of the new microfinance bank. The income from service charges (interest) Projections suggest that some cross-subsidy for increased almost fivefold between 1995 and the NAC will be needed for the first five years. 106 Annexes Although the current AKRSP microfinance pro- to improve their lives by investment in physical gram has recently attained financial sustainabil- works. These objectives were highly relevant. ity (or almost attained it, depending on how costs Together with credit, infrastructure was a key are calculated), the new bank is expected to social building block. The relevance and high pri- incur a number of start-up costs. ority of the schemes was assured by the primacy of the village organization in the selection process Productive Physical Infrastructure and has been confirmed by high construction The benefits and impact of the 2,000 small-scale standards and generally good maintenance. The infrastructure schemes completed so far are sub- objectives are consistent with the element of the stantial, far-reaching, and sustainable (see Annex overall mission statement directed at the provi- J, tables J.6 to J.9). Half the schemes are for irri- sion of economic resources and opportunities, gation development, almost a quarter are trans- although, again, equity is not addressed directly. port schemes (link roads, bridges, and tracks), The infrastructure program has been highly and the remainder are a mixture of protective relevant to the needs of the people of the NAC works, microhydels, boundary walls, domestic regions. It has resulted in equitably distributed water supply, and other types of schemes, includ- investments at what are claimed by AKRSP staff ing plant nurseries, barbed-wire fences, sanita- to be substantially lower cost than traditional tion and sewerage, and community bathrooms public works. The benefits are evidenced by and centers. The schemes have already helped strong continuing demand in the villages for transform the villages that adopted them early more schemes. Government has also joined the and will soon do so for the villages that became process by providing funds for extra schemes to involved late. This is evident from a range of be overseen by the AKRSP. The schemes cho- AKRSP and independent studies, as well as from sen by villages were a good match with tradi- the evaluation team's village visits. tional construction skills acquired over hundreds Ingenious irrigation supply channels, often of years in the harsh mountain conditions.7 But over long, precarious routes across mountain relevant to the question of incentives for sus- slopes, have developed 48,000 hectares of new taining community organizations is that, in 1987, land and intensified cropping on existing land. after 5 years of the program, about 20 percent As is evident from a number of case studies, this of organizations had a PPI being initiated that has resulted in impressive production increases. year, whereas in 2000, with more than three times The hundreds of miles of link roads and 60 the number of organizations and some decline road bridges constructed by the villagers since in number of PPIs initiated, only about 5 per- 1983 have increased the impact of the main, gov- cent had a PPI being initiated that year. ernment-constructed trunk roads. The same will be true for the AKRSP link roads and bridges in Efficacy Chitral and Astore as those main roads are sealed Since the previous OED evaluation, the PPI pro- and improved. Microhydels are making a major gram has continued to complete the long-term difference to life-styles in the region, especially average of about 120 schemes a year, close to in Chitral. The great variety of other types of the plateau reached in the late 1980s. After a schemes chosen by villages is a sign of the lower completion rate of 83 in 1999, program opportunities for more diversified infrastructure engineers were increased by 20 contract staff, investments in the future. and 154 schemes were completed in 2000. The level of success over 14 years in sponsoring the Relevance construction of a broad range of small-scale, The objectives of the PPI program were to (i) pro- high-priority infrastructure projects has been vide the essential catalyst for village organization exceptional. The speed with which some proj- following a period of organizational vacuum and ects are completed is remarkable, with village (ii) respond with technical assistance and grant work crews contributing long days and camp- ftnding to the expressed needs of the villagers ing on-site when distant from the village. 107 The Next Ascent: An Evaluation of the Aga Khan Rural Support Program, Pakistan Relatively few projects have failed outright. been substantial, based on the economic analy- "Abandoned projects" totaled 84 at the end of sis for this component, which suggests ERRs 2000, which is about 4 percent of completed averaging about 27 percent, and on village dis- schemes. (This was incorporated in the eco- cussions, which often stressed the health bene- nomic analysis.) Over 60 percent of these are irri- fits. The evaluation team saw cases where a gation schemes in Chitral and Baltistan. Special link road or bridge could reduce travel time to efforts are needed in those regions to reduce fail- distant land or the nearest commercial center ure of irrigation schemes, and possibly to resus- from 2 to 4 hours on foot, to 20 to 30 minutes citate a number of them, given their sunk costs. by truck. Even so, 4 percent is commendably low for Selection of these projects by the whole com- abandoned schemes considering the challenges munity in open meetings conducted with AKRSP in perhaps the most unstable rural topography facilitators generally ensures that the highest- in the world and the exceptionally high level of priority schemes are chosen and that there will social cohesion needed-often between people be collective commitment to provide a sub- of different sects-to mobilize the labor required. stantial share of the costs and to construct the Problems leading to abandonment include social schemes with their own labor. The evaluation disagreements, especially over land (rights of team did not come across a single road or bridge way, compensation, and allocations), and unfore- scheme where selection had subsequently been seen technical difficulties. questioned. This is in contrast to many earlier Efficacy ofIrigation Schemes. There is cause public works that did not flourish because of site, for concern about the rate of completion of design, construction, and maintenance prob- land development (tertiary channeling, rock lems that could be traced to failure to consult clearance, terrace construction, and planting) local opinion on site selection and other tech- to make early use of available irrigation water. nical matters. Completion times have generally Unlike the construction of the water supply sys- been excellent. tem, this aspect is left to farmers and in some Efficacy ofMicrohydels. The benefits of micro- schemes has lagged, with a consequent reduc- hydels are numerous and far-reaching. Water tion in benefits. Reclassifying irrigation schemes power is one of the few locally exploitable as land development schemes represents a sig- resources. Initially the main use is for lighting nal, but it is not clear that this has translated into to replace kerosene lamps and wood fires. This faster completion. The evaluation team saw sev- has allowed children to spend more time study- eral schemes where it will be some years before ing and has permitted women to produce more all the available water is used. traditional crafts for sale. Smoke pollution from Efficacy of Link Roads and Bridges. The com- burning wood and kerosene is reduced; basic pletion of the Karakoram and Skardu highways household chores can be mechanized (such as more than 20 years ago much improved trans- churning butter and washing clothes), releasing port links. Similarly, the main highway improve- women's time; communication is improved ments under way in Chitral and Astore will through radios and televisions; and socializing improve transport links there. Astore in partic- is extended. In addition, the power has resulted ular seems to have exhibited low productivity in small enterprise development, such as stone and income gains due to poor infrastructure. But polishing. the benefits of these highways could not be Starting with small schemes in the early realized without linking roads to the distant 1990s that employed somewhat makeshift plans, communities. Apart from some government con- the engineering skills of the microhydel team struction of secondary roads, the AKRSP roads were rapidly strengthened, resulting in and bridges have provided the bulk of the ter- improved scheme design and construction. The tiary road system. They will continue to do so Chitral Regional Program Office (RPO) has if identified demands for more roads can be helped to install the bulk of the microhydels financed. The economic and social impacts have (153 of a total of 167 through 2000), complet- 108 Annexes ing an average of 17 schemes a year. The schemes, as well as internationally, such that the schemes provide power to more than a third AKRSP approach has reached well beyond the of the district's 43,000 households. Unlike most program.8 hydropower, these schemes do not require However, the success in Chitral highlights a dams for water storage, since they operate on public policy issue that government needs to water from snow and glacial ice-natural forms address. The rapid growth of schemes in the dis- of storage. trict is attributed to the high cost and unreliability Exchanges of data with other microhydel of public electricity supplies in Chitral, com- programs indicate that the Chitral region has pared with subsidized supplies in Gilgit and already achieved the highest microhydel con- Baltistan. Cutting the subsidies in those regions centration in the world, and more stations are would open up more potential for microhydel being installed (see box L.2). There is scope in schemes at no public cost. Chitral for many more such schemes, for upgrad- ing existing ones, and for larger schemes to Efficiency provide a more advanced level of service for In early 2000, the AKRSP surveyed a small sam- more power-intensive domestic uses, public pie of completed infrastructure schemes in the facilities, agricultural processing, and small busi- 3 regions, 11 each in Gilgit and Chitral and 4 in nesses (DFID 1998). A start has been made in Baltistan, which provided evidence to support this direction with the completion of a commu- the evaluation team's positive observations nity washing station for 300 families and the (AKRSP 2000k). The main findings of the impact9 development of low-wattage water heaters for studies are summarized in box L.3 for the three off-peak use. main types of schemes: land development, link The Chitral microhydel program has been roads/bridges, and microhydels.10 particularly effective as a tool of social organi- With respect to allocative efficiency, evidence zation, as well as providing the entry point for is mixed. Average ERRs for the three main infra- participation by communities that had previ- structure types fall in a relatively narrow range, ously held back on sectarian grounds. AKRSP suggesting reasonably sound overall allocation staff have also provided assistance on the IFAD- by PPI type. However, the range of ERRs within funded Chitral Agricultural Development Project the sample of cases is wider, suggesting that microhydel component and a few private within investment categories there may be room Box L.2 Microhydel Schemes in Chitral District Chitral has numerous sites for harnessing water power. Since ing the irrigation command area). The technology introduced has 1991, more than 170 schemes have been initiated by the AKRSP been simple and robust, rather than sophisticated or highly effi- and about 150 have been completed, benefiting about 16,000 cient, suiting local capabilities. Training is provided for opera- households (37 percentof the43,000 households inthe district). tors, site supervisors, and for villagers on safety aspects. The average AKRSP grant has been about Rp. 69,000 (US$10,600) Advanced engineering training is given to selected supervi- per scheme, about US$150 per household. Water-driven grain sors. The strategy has included linking up with equipment man- milling has been a tradition for centuries, but the AKRSP added ufacturers and nurturing the growth of a microhydel service organizational, engineering, planning, training, and implemen- industry that will give additional benefits beyond the program. tation skills to supplement traditional skills and provided cap- The schemes visited were more technically advanced than the ital grants for materials and supplies. Water supplies are often first schemes seen in the mid-1990s. This is attributable to tech- plentiful, and schemes can be designed to be compatible with nical assistance from Intermediate Technology Consultants, irrigation, since power generation only reduces the head, not U.K., and links established with other agencies such as the water volume (in the rugged terrain with many perennial torrents, International Centerfor Mountain Development (ICIMOD), Nepal, sufficient head for power can usually be found without reduc- and with Powerflow, New Zealand. 109 The Next Ascent: An Evaluation of the Aga Khan Rural Support Program, Pakistan Box L.3 Findings of Infrastructure Case Studies A series of case studies by the AKRSP found that implementing improved health service; maintenance is usually good, with some the projects increased social cohesion and that they had very exceptions; where religious practices allow, there is increased good rates of return, in the range of 25-35 percent. mobility of women; environmental impacts are mixed-con- Land development (irrigation) studies showed substantial struction losses of land and trees, stimulation of forest exploita- community contributions (16-46 percent); huge appreciation in tion (an issue warranting increased attention in future planning), land values (the evaluation team found even higher land value but reduced fuelwood use as alternative fuels become more read- increments than the case studies); increased fodder produc- ily available and cheaper; and, in some cases, increased use of tion (restorative cropping of legumes) leading to increased con- agricultural chemicals linked to their easier availability. sumption of livestock products; cereal cropping limited by Microhydel studies showed that power is used mainly for initially poor soils and subsidy disincentives; significant impact lighting in place of kerosene (now a demand for upgraded micro- on fuelwood and timber resources; new land generally distrib- hydels to provide power for heating and cooking); benefits uted equitably; an increase of two hours a day in women's work- included reduced kerosene fumes, more time for crafts, study, load in the agricultural season; and good sustainability prospects and entertaining; sustainability is good as schemes are well given villagers' self-interest, maintenance committees, and col- maintained (maintenance funds, operator training, and local lection of maintenance funds. components), but there are sustainability concerns in some Link roads and bridges studies showed improved market cases where flat rate charges are less than operation and main- access (increased cash-cropping); time savings, land apprecia- tenance (O&M) costs where there are few meters and when there tion; improved access by agricultural machinery (reducing work is an absence of maintenance funds; reduced women's work load loads); some tourism increase; increased services from govern- where household appliances are used; and equitable connec- ment and NG0s; easier access to the village for construction; tion and charges to all households. for improved selectivity. The strategy is pro- struction as a single scheme, on a planned sched- poor, however, and allocating purely on com- ule with credit funding, may improve efficiency. parative ERRs may distort the pursuit of that With respect to comparative costs, an AKRSP objective. With respect to allocation within the study compared 230 projects constructed in village, the local contribution of about 30 per- 1998/99 by region." The main findings were as cent is likely to elicit fairly careful consideration follows: of perceived relative community returns. * Costs per household were significantly lower An impact study of a women's organization in Gilgit region at Rs. 4,800 (a ceiling is placed water supply scheme details outcomes similar to on family costs, and schemes tend to have those reported for other such schemes in the vil- larger numbers participating), compared with lages visited (AKRSP 20001). The main benefits more than Rs. 7,000 for the other regions. reported by the members were time saved car- * Chitral has significantly higher unit costs per rying water (three hours each day per family dur- acre and foot of channel because of the lim- ing the four months of winter); the time and ited land available. On average, schemes pro- money saved through reduced illness (less med- vided only about an acre of additional land icine and emergency transport needed-about per family in Chitral compared with 2.6 to 5 half the usual expenditure); women had more acres elsewhere. time available for socializing and for productive * Community contributions to costs were from craft work, and the improved health of children just over 20 percent in Baltistan and Chitral, had increased time spent on school work. The to as much as 43 percent in Gilgit region, estimated rate of return was satisfactory. reflecting a higher ability to pay in the more The one major reservation on irrigation prosperous Gilgit. scheme efficiency, mentioned earlier, is the long * Community contributions were highest for delays in some schemes in completing the irri- link roads-the predominant public good gated area. Bundling land development in a component of infrastructure interventions- more integrated fashion with channel or pipe con- whereas equity and efficiency would sug- 110 Annexes gest that public goods should enjoy the high- meetings, and no major deficiencies were est subsidy level. observed at selected projects. This is an exceptionally high level of per- Institutional Development Impact formance in the rural development field, espe- The infrastructure program has had substantial cially for scattered small-scale construction in institutional development impact as the main cat- remote areas. In many rural development pro- alyst for social organization. It has enhanced grams maintenance is not only weak but also is social cohesion in villages (and between vil- often a threat to scheme and program survival. lages where cluster PPIs have been undertaken) The achievement is more remarkable in NAC and probably contributed to equity mechanisms because the predominant works (irrigation chan- through the associated land allocation proce- nels/pipes and roads) are highly prone to seri- dures. The implementation and management of ous damage from mud and rock slides. infrastructure has led to strengthening of skills Maintenance standards of private, or small group, in community organizations and led to wide- assets can be expected to be quite good, but here spread recognition, including by government, of this is also true of public goods where there is the effectiveness of community organizations a free-rider option, such as roads and bridges. as the village operational arm. The success can be attributed to the self-interest of villagers in continued benefits, identification Sustainability of the villagers with the structures, the AKRSP's Sustainability for the infrastructure schemes is support for social organization, careful screen- assessed as highly likely, but with reservations ing of scheme proposals for widespread support, for some types of schemes. Village ownership the relatively equitable benefits, the modest of schemes is excellent. Schemes are identified levels of exotic technology over traditional as high priority, are constructed by the village, knowledge, the good training of operators; and, and provide substantial benefits to most, usually more recently, the insistence by the AKRSP that all, members. Dissension over operation and maintenance funds are set aside by community maintenance (O&M) of facilities is relatively organizations. rare. In many cases the village organization has However, there are three sustainability issues spun off scheme committees to handle such of some concern: matters as maintenance, which has strength- * Cost recovery in microhydel schemes is only ened sustainability by placing specialists in just sufficient to cover routine O&M, with no charge of schemes. reserve for larger repairs or replacements. Technical soundness is exceptional as the Currently, ad hoc levies are used for routine designs and construction methods combine con- O&M expenses. While such a system may siderable traditional knowledge with the exper- work for small schemes, the pattern of low- tise of experienced AKRSP staff. Where technical cost energy this has set cannot be sustained problems have arisen, ways to resolve them in the planned expansion to larger, more effi- have usually been found quickly. cient schemes. The RPO in Chitral is aware Maintenance of infrastructure is of a gener- of the problem and action is being taken to ally high standard: the AKRSP reports that 92 per- increase tariffs gradually to more sustainable cent of the infrastructure projects are effectively levels (a similar problem is likely for domes- maintained, with a high figure of 98 percent for tic water supply). those in Gilgit region (AKRSP 2000a, p. 19, sec- * In some irrigation schemes there should be tion 4). Since the 1995 evaluation, the intro- greater attention to projecting labor con- duction of mandatory maintenance funds and straints. In some areas, there are increasing, committees has strengthened maintenance. competing employment opportunities. The Although the evaluation team's resources did not planning of irrigation where land expansion allow extensive checking of maintenance, no is high relative to resident adults (some new serious problems were reported during village schemes have more than doubled land area) 111 The Next Ascent: An Evaluation of the Aga Khan Rural Support Program, Pakistan should take careful note of seasonal labor One premise of the strategy-that production demand and supply. Labor availability is a must increase by 66 percent in line with popu- main reason why it takes a number of years lation growth (2.55 percent)-is inappropriate. to finish land development following the It implies that agriculture must maintain its cur- completion of an irrigation channel. rent relative contribution, which is not self- * Water use efficiency is becoming increasingly evident for an area with such special resource important. In some villages there has been and logistical constraints and with the available decreasing water-possibly associated with alternatives for raising household income. Thus climate change through lower precipitation improving livelihoods and raising household and consequent lower glacier and snow melt. income would be a more suitable target and While this is not yet widespread, and there would direct attention to non-farm income. With remain quite a few unexploited water sources, respect to the first of the four thrust areas, the if the declining trend continues and compet- semi-formal questionnaire applied by the team ing water uses continue to rise, the sustain- at the village level, together with field observa- ability of some future irrigation investments tions, confirmed the potential for expansion of could be threatened. irrigated land area, but to fully realize these benefits speedier land development is needed. Natural Resource Management Efficacy Relevance Efficacy of the NRM component over the full Natural resource management (NRM) activities, period of the program has been highly satisfac- encompassing agriculture, livestock, and forestry, tory; more recently it has been only satisfactory. have been highly relevant and have had a sig- Over the only period for which good income data nificant beneficial impact in the project area over are available, per capita farm incomes increased the period of the program, although quantifica- 2.7 times, from Rs. 2,647 in 1991 to Rs. 7,046 in tion and attribution are difficult. NRM activities can 1997 (in real terms, 1999 prices). The lowest be expected to remain relevant as the bulk of the percentage increases were in Astore, where infra- income of most households (about 60 percent of structure is a main constraint, and the highest household income comes from farming). were in Chitral (AKRSP 2000c). Efficacy was par- The NRM strategy calls for raising the standards ticularly impressive in forestry. As noted by the of living and incomes of the people of the North- 1997 Joint Monitoring Mission, there has also been ern Areas and Chitral to a level comparable with an increasing environmental awareness in villages the national average for Pakistan. It proposes over recent years, and some villages now con- four priority areas: increasing area under irriga- trol free grazing-with significant potential farm tion; wheat12 and maize improvement; animal systems and crop management impacts-and husbandry; and commercial agriculture. The strat- attempt management of the high pastures. There egy also proposes three strategic elements, as an has also been an increase in AKRSP attention to overlay: increasing production from existing farm- indigenous knowledge. However, the evalua- land by 66 percent; increasing cultivated area by tion team had some doubts about whether the 30 percent; and modestly increasing income poorest farm households are really receiving through ancillary enterprises such as beekeeping, appropriate technology options explicitly devel- poultry, and trophy hunting. Increases in agri- oped with very low input costs, quick returns, cultural production are expected to come from low risk, and labor requirements that either greater cropping intensity, new technologies, and accommodate off-farm work or provide signifi- improved supply of inputs. Forestry is being cant, value-added employment. The need is for played down somewhat, and will focus on new something similar to the targeted poverty pro- land only, because of substantial planting achieve- gram, with differentiation that would identify ments and an increase in private nurseries initi- the particular needs of the poorer households in ated with AKRSP assistance. each identifiable zonal system. 112 Annexes Efficacy has been impressive in cash crops, and associated systems issues other than the but these gains will prove fragile if more atten- ongoing study, and, more broadly, the limited tion is not given to addressing crop and livestock response in the farm systems direction. As noted pest and disease problems, understanding and by the 1997 Joint Monitoring Mission, there has linking marketing and production, and enhanc- been a lack of systematic, long-term approaches ing the capacity of the private sector input sup- in NRM. But this finding should not be over- ply system. Lack of appropriate technologies stated. The NRM program is still quite strong. This for a number of situations continues to be one loss of vision may be better explained as a fail- of the principal constraints on further growth. ure to gain vision, arising from the shift from the Improved varieties of wheat and maize, 400 separate agriculture, livestock, and forestry activ- metric tons of which have been distributed since ities, with relatively simple but unlinked strate- inception of the program, is acknowledged by gic concepts, to the largely donor-triggered villagers to have contributed to raising overall natural resource management concept-which cereal production. Well over 50 percent of house- is more difficult to articulate and implement but holds benefit from wheat technology (in Gilgit offers potentially higher rewards. and Baltistan regions), and about 40 percent of households benefit from new maize varieties. Strengths and Weaknesses Apart from cereals, which are seen more as The evaluation team's indicative village surveys food security crops than cash crops, growth in provided additional information on agricultural fruits, vegetables, and livestock has significantly technology and the AKRSP's responses to prob- contributed to increased farm income.13 Intro- lems. About 60 percent of NAC farmers perceive duction of exotic varieties of cherries, apples, that cereal yields have stagnated in the past few pears, and apricots; aggressive promotion of years, and when asked if the AKRSP has done potato cultivation; and continued attention to anything to respond, 61 percent of them said increased forage production (alfalfa, oats, maize) "no." With respect to livestock systems, only 8 are examples of relevant and successful tech- percent of the technologies perceived to be nology innovations supported by the AKRSP. most beneficial were related to livestock, and However, there are some signs that increases about one-third of groups interviewed said that on both the input and output sides are reach- little had been offered on livestock technologies, ing a plateau. In double-crop areas productiv- although livestock represents about 40 percent ity increases are leveling off. With so much of farm income. However, the low percentage genetic material introduced over the years, it was here may be a product of farmers not perceiv- difficult for farmers to recall benchmarks against ing "new technologies" in livestock in quite the which to measure change. Farmers in a number same way as an improved crop variety. In about of villages visited perceived a decline in soil fer- three-quarters of villages visited, the evaluation tility. The evaluation team observed some vari- team rated overall AKRSP responsiveness to the ability in the performance of NRM interventions local farming system as "responsive" or "very across villages and districts, which suggests there responsive," although some of the "responsive" may be room for management improvements. ratings were qualified as "only just." The evaluation team assessed strengths and Has There Been Some Loss of Vision weaknesses with respect to five attributes gen- in Recent Years? erally considered important for technology devel- While it is difficult to prove, the evaluation team opment and dissemination. The findings are sensed some loss of vision in recent years in nat- summarized in table L.5. ural resource management, although perform- On another dimension, with respect to seven ance remained satisfactory. Evidence for this important ingredients for technology genera- includes the weak explicit linkage between NRM tion, the evaluation team judged three areas of strategy and poverty objectives, the continued the AKRSP's NRM capacity-staff skills, the lack of attention to the above-channel areas capacity to access available technologies, and the 113 The Next Ascent: An Evaluation of the Aga Khan Rural Support Program, Pakistan Table L.5 Strengths and Weaknesses in NRM Attribute Strength Weakness Integration All disciplines of crops, livestock, and forestry Limited central leadership in NRM to play mentor as integrated into NRM; dissemination processes well as strategic planner's role. devolved to regional program offices. Flexibility Regional management empowered to make Most NRM staff still target-oriented; little time left periodic reviews and change, when needed, for creative activities or pursuing ideas that would resources allocated for specific activities; can lead to generating new technologies. I be very responsive to community needs. Relevance Several examples of relevant and successful A few areas/farming systems still do not have technologies disseminated by the AKRSP can appropriate technical packages and associated be found in the field. support (single-crop zones/above-channel farming systems; remote communities with marketing problems). Partnerships Very strong in building partnerships with Relatively weak in promoting partnership with government communities. Emerging capacity in building agencies. partnerships with private sector input suppliers. Institutional support Over the full program, solid support from Support for NRM declined somewhat in recent years. management; transparent policies goal-oriented. evaluation of available technologies-to be rel- are complementary. The need is more for under- atively strong. It found four areas-mobilization standing the processes and linkages14 and being of farmer knowledge, the availability of processes able to locate these in a recommendation domain for identifying productivity constraints, farmer defined both zonally and by household resource involvement in the identification of technologies, ratios. This is more than simply zonal mapping. and dissemination and input supply-to be less It differentiates by such factors as household strong. type, landholding size, poverty level, labor avail- ability during peak season, level of livestock con- The Farm Systems Recommendations of the trol in the village, and marketing constraints. It Previous Evaluation is still not entirely clear why the recommenda- The evaluation mission's view is that the farm tions were not adopted. It appears that the rea- systems recommendations of the previous mis- son is a combination of concerns about costs; sion should have been implemented (see box lack of a comprehensive NRM strategy; lack of L.4), although there may be room for debate core leadership in NRM; and lack of strong man- about the appropriate intensity and scale. There agement commitment to NRM relative to other remains a case for implementing them, but with priorities. some additional focus on a broader livelihoods The system links to marketing, in particular, approach that incorporates increased emphasis need to be explored.15 A large number of tech- on off-farm income sources. Focus on this lat- nologies have been tested in the NRM program. ter area should now lie within the remit of the A number have been successfully introduced and NRM component since there is no other suitable exhibit rising adoption rates, but there have home for it and it is inherent in a systems been quite a few unsuccessful interventions, approach. Moreover, it has generally been found and some, especially in the livestock sector, that farm income is positively, not negatively, where the farm system or marketing reasons for associated with non-farm income--that is, they the lack of adoption are not entirely clear. A 114 Annexes Farm Systems Recommendations from the Box 1.4 1996 OED Evaluation The 1996 evaluation recommended the following: (i) categorize the opportunities, land and water, and inter-household differences and farming systems so that relevant technology can be developed and women's programs; (vi) link with local public and private research a more informed dialogue carried out with communities; (ii) focus institutions in each region (some technical assistance was pro- on clustersof villages and design the research on the basis of those posed to help establish participatory fanner/researcher processes); clusters; (iii) have master farmerrepresentatives (two pervillage (vii) further train AKSPprofessionals in a systems perspective, organization) from both the wealthy and poorer categories of (viii) village specialists and master trainers would continue to play households to accommodate differences in technology needs theirrole aswouldthe FMU; and (ix) collaborate withnationalcen- and risk resilience; (iv) use one site for each ecological zone, but tersin testing a farm-based interface between small farmers and also ensure that each zone is covered in each of the three regions; research aimed at influencing research programming at Jaglote, (v) work at each site on technologies and their linkages, market Chitral, and Skardu. greater systems perspective would have helped ity and biodiversity focus, which, in any case, has and has the potential to reduce technology ini- a substantial income potential through tourism and tiative dead ends. The true net costs may, there- selective sport hunting. Indeed, in the longer-term, fore, be modest. these high pastures are the leading areas of NAC comparative advantage. The AKRSP should be Livestock Development in the Above-Channel more involved. Range Areas While the AKRSP's role has been important Efficacy of Government Research through the afforestation program and through While not an AKRSP task, as discussed in Chap- facilitating contacts between communities and ter 5, it will be important for the NAC that the NGOs such as the IUCN and the World Wildlife government increase its capacity in research. Fund (WWF), in livestock productivity the AKRSP There is some evidence of recent improvements has focused almost exclusively on the below- at the Karakoram Agricultural Research Insti- channel area. Yet nearly all the weight gain of tute for the Northern Areas (KARINA) (Annex I). most livestock comes from above-channel forage, If this can be sustained, perhaps with donor assis- and livestock is the biggest component of farm tance, it may provide a basis for greater part- income. This calls for more attention. In fact, nership between government and the AKRSP. many village livestock barely survive the winter. The above-channel areas16 represent a com- Efficacy of Subcomponent Investment plex system of natural forests, high pastures, Participatory Variety Selection (PVS) Program. summer livestock camps, and sparse wildlife, all While highly relevant, it is too early to assess the scattered across an unstable landscape. The sta- efficacy of this program, which is in its first bility of these fragile areas is closely linked to the year. The collaborative nature of PVS, involving below-channel farming systems through the graz- target germplasm from national (such as NARC, ing needs of village herds and flocks. Once the Pir Sabak) or international research institutes ongoing research program covering these linkages (such as the International Center for Maize and presents findings, the AKRSP should revisit its Wheat Improvement-CIMMYT), can be used decision to stay away from the above-channel not only to identify new cereal varieties, but also areas.17 If the decision is made to focus more on to test new agronomic practices, for example, these areas, then the AKRSP should collaborate seed priming or finding optimal fertilizer with the IUCN and the WWF. A shift in this direc- requirements by soil type, and also for new tion by the AKRSP would complement the efforts crops, such as triticale, rye, or oats. The program of these two agencies. It would broaden the sys- is concentrating first on wheat, and has yet to tems perspective in the direction of productivity commence for maize. It will require more while maintaining an environmental sustainabil- resources for scaling up.18 115 The Next Ascent: An Evaluation of the Aga Khan Rural Support Program, Pakistan It may take several years, but production ing groups with declining or no subsidies. For increases in the range of 10 to 40 percent can cross-pollinated and non-grain crops such as be anticipated with an effective seed multipli- maize and forage (for which seed production is cation and distribution program. Over the longer more specialized and commercial) the AKRSP has term, a shift toward a participatory plant breed- already successfully used a farmer group ing (PPB) program within a government part- approach. nership offers potential for wheat in the Single-Crop Areas. The AKRSP has somewhat single-cropping zone. Because few, if any, suit- increased its attention to single-crop areas at the able varieties are likely to be available off the higher altitudes through breed improvement shelf, given this zone's special characteristics.9 and fodder security activities. But these areas While the participatory aspects of such a program remain a challenge and a priority. They include lie within the AKRSP's role, the technical plant the poorest villages and most of Astore, which breeding lies outside it. Plant breeding, whether has had only modest net farm income gains. As basic or adaptive/participatory, should remain part of a push on poverty-related NRM inter- the domain of the public sector, using Jaglote and ventions, these areas need a special program and substations, but with the AKRSP as a valuable strategy with targets and monitoring. Expanding partner in the participatory approach. the range of improved varieties, especially in fod- Seed Supply. The AKRSP has been very effec- der, would be a central element. tive in disseminating seeds (Annex J, table J.1 Afforestation. The forestry program of the shows that 890 metric tons of improved seeds AKRSP has been a remarkable achievement. have been distributed, with Baltistan taking more About 40 million trees have been planted with than half). This was unavoidable in the early years about 70 percent survival, and about 1,500 pri- because there were no commercial suppliers. vate nurseries have been established. The eval- Commercial seed for self-pollinating crops such uation team saw many good plantings that confirm as wheat, for which farmers recycle seed and for this. The impressive gains are partly attributable which there are low margins, is unlikely in the to a collaborative effort with a Norwegian Agency near future. For these, the AKRSP is currently still for International Development (NORAD)-funded the main vehicle and will need to continue to be social forestry project in the Northern Areas. so for several years. But priority should now be Nonetheless, the program must prove its sus- given to supporting the emerging seed industry tainability once subsidies are removed. Areas for with training and investment advice, as with possible attention are commercialization of tree commercial vegetable seeds through North-South plantations through refined skills in nursery man- Seeds Company, an AKRSP-sponsored private agement (the mission noted, for example, that enterprise in Gilgit. In the future, the AKRSP nursery root trainers, which have given impres- should confine itself mainly to training and sup- sive results elsewhere in dry areas, have not been port for suppliers, and farmer training on selec- used); cost-effective transportation and trans- tion and storage. Direct seed supply activities may planting of seedlings; integration of social and still be justified on poverty grounds in the poorer technical aspects of plantation management; and high-altitude areas where government is less tree felling/disposal and marketing of produce. likely to have resources to operate. The target It may be necessary to diversify away from what would be cold-weather vegetables, cold-tolerant is currently a predominantly poplar culture fodder crops, kales, and root crops. because of the risk of losses from borer attacks. Seed subsidies continued too high for too long There may also be opportunities for gains in without a clear rationale. By 2000, 44 tons of veg- understanding intercropped forage competition etable seed and 243 tons of potato seed, for an (notably in the traditional willow plantations), and entirely commercial crop, were distributed at 50 the economically optimal productivity cycles for percent subsidy. This was substantially reduced popular fodder species. after 1998/99. The NRM group will need to Livestock Husbandry Support. While support focus on finding ways to sustain seed produc- in this area has been quite strong, improved feed 116 Annexes efficiency for ruminants is an area where the where, is said to now have a substantial Jersey AKRSP's interventions have been less success- Fl population of about 7,000 head. Another ful. This is surprising given the importance of way forward initiated in Gilgit is to select and livestock in the farming system. Adoption rates maintain elite herds of local animals with selected for two main items of technology, silage and urea farmers, while some farmers maintain pure Jer- straw treatment, show poor uptake despite sub- sey herds to produce stud bulls-currently sidies, although a third area, manger-based stall- brought from down-country. A challenge, how- feeding to reduce feed loss, is faring somewhat ever, is stabilizing the crossbred progeny by better. While labor constraint is generally more systematic tracking of the successive prog- believed responsible for the low uptake in these eny and monitoring of their performance. technologies, there may be a case for a farm Poultry Improvement. This program has not systems-based analysis of the issue. It is prob- been as effective as the breed improvement of ably more complicated than just labor, possibly ruminants, partly due to technical problems and involving pricing relationships between forage lack of a clear strategy. Problems were com- for sale and feed, gender issues, and links to pounded by a lack of breed evaluation-com- marketing. mercial and farm-level rural production systems Veterinary Input Supplies. Veterinary supplies require different birds. Evaluation usually can be show an impressive record of distribution completed in two years by monitoring per- through the AKRSP's network. However, con- formance in selected villages, and chick pro- tinued subsidy on such inputs well into the late duction can then be promoted through trained 1990s was a questionable strategy. Training and producer groups in larger villages or through support for village livestock specialists and mas- cluster village organizations where there is a ter trainers was partly directed toward veterinary market. The distribution of indigenous breeds to services privatization, mainly for vaccination remote areas in Gilgit and Baltistan regions (Chi- and medicines supply. The role played by the tral may start soon) has merit for the poverty Enterprise Development Section and the NRM objective and as a source of income for women.20 staff in facilitating establishment of veterinary supply businesses has been a commendable Efficiency example of the sort of private sector partnership Overall, efficiency appears satisfactory. The eco- that should continue to grow in the future. But nomic analysis of the NRM component alone, the AKRSP still accounts for substantial direct excluding the AKRSP overheads, which have sales (50 percent in two major stores in Gilgit, been applied to the overall economic analysis, for instance). This should be phased out. The suggests a rate of return of about 25 percent. This AKRSP should continue its awareness-raising rate of return is fairly typical of NRM interven- role with government, in particular, supporting tions with high-technology content. NRM-related regulation on the quality of inputs and training expenditure per household declined from Rs. 762 the private sector and village-level workers. per household in 1998 (Rs. 80 million/105,000 Breed ImprovementforLarge Stock. This activ- households) to Rs. 630 in 2000 (Rs. 70 mil- ity has been effective after some difficulties with lion/I 11,000 households)-a 20 percent decline adaptability of breed choice. Crossbreeding of in real terms. The NRM program as a percent- cattle has resulted in significant increases in age of the operating budget has fallen steadily productivity and head count. The crosses from 18.6 percent in 1998 to 15.4 percent 1999, between Friesian bulls and local cows gave way 13.6 percent in 2000, and 12.6 percent in 2001. to preferences for the hardier Jersey bulls Cutting down on input distribution subsidies because the offspring produced more milk with seems to be one cause of the decline and would higher butter content. The adjustment is a good almost certainly represent an improvement in example of the AKRSP's flexibility in keeping the efficiency. Decreasing emphasis on input sub- program relevant and effective. Baltistan region, sidy and distribution-related expenditure in favor where the program is more successful than else- of increasing emphasis on technology genera- 117 The Next Ascent: An Evaluation of the Aga Khan Rural Support Program, Pakistan tion and dissemination, farmer training, and mar- through less formal channels. This may change ket information are likely to improve efficiency. in the future as greater specialization and demand for skills meet an increasing readiness Institutional Development Impact to pay for training. Meanwhile, categorization of Is the AKRSP Substituting for Government in master trainers would enable greater training Research and Extension? While, in the absence focus. Increasingly customized training will be of a control, it is difficult to prove that the needed to create the demand and a gradual AKRSP has substituted for government, the total shift toward payment for advisory services. As absence of government extension found at the participatory research becomes more estab- village level suggests that the AKRSP has prob- lished, the village specialists and master train- ably substituted for government in technology ers should become coordinators, operators, and dissemination work. In research, with the AKRSP collaborators and will need training in this area. only handling such adaptive work as testing/ The AKRSP should consider studying the demonstrating new varieties, the AKRSP contri- incentives for training with the objective of rais- bution has been more complementary. ing household financial returns to investing time Overall, had the AKRSP not been present, gov- in increased skills, while also gradually raising ernment alone would certainly not have achieved cost recovery from both villagers and trainees. anywhere near the results evident, although The proposed new NRM strategy places a there have been some government achieve- greater emphasis on technology. With increased ments in technology. For example, some high- demand for high-value commodities-includ- yield wheat varieties found their way into the ing livestock products-that are technically more Northern Areas at the onset of the Green Rev- challenging, training programs will need to be olution through the help of government, and a further adjusted, probably toward an increased Tibetan wheat variety-still popular in most of degree of specialization. The many mature the single-crop areas-is said to have been AKRSP village organizations capable of seeking brought by a Department of Agriculture official information should enable advisory services to who visited Ladakh in the mid-1980s. But such become both more pluralistic and more com- introductions have been sporadic. The without- mercially oriented. AKRSP scenario in NRM seems likely to have Overall NRM support should be differentiated been, at best, one of low-level technology, prob- based on the assessed capacity of each village ably losing ground against national averages. to manage its development affairs and technol- Master Trainers and Village Specialists. The ogy needs with less outside assistance. The AKRSP's present training programs are more AKRSP's recent efforts to promote input suppli- than adequate in quantitative terms-averaging ers and phase out input subsidies supports this about 2,000 regular and 1,600 refresher courses approach. Input suppliers should, with training, a year (Annex J, table J. 10). In the survey of the gradually assume more of the role of extension village by the evaluation team, 91 percent of agents, although some quality rating/stamp of respondents said that village specialists are effec- approval for suppliers may be helpful initially. tive, of which 24 percent said they are very With respect to the AKRSP staff, recent reviews effective. While such responses to an informal suggest that significant NRM training is required survey carried out with others present need to to orient field staff to the roles proposed for them be interpreted with caution, quality of skills in the new strategy. Two topics recommended seemed to be appreciated at the village level. in the NRM strategy background documents However, an M&E survey in Chitral, based on with which the mission concurs are: methodol- preliminary findings, found that the attrition rate ogy for research-related activities and advisory for master trainers could well be over 40 percent. techniques aimed at a farm management busi- Attrition losses must be expected since master ness approach. The objective should be to trainer service is entirely voluntary, but it is not enhance the skills of some staff from traditional all loss since such skills will still have an impact technical specialists to interactive development 118 Annexes facilitators who can help farmers gradually in a rural areas sustainable livelihoods strategy. develop the skills to seek out and test their own Food import may always be needed, paid for solutions. through earnings from elsewhere. Sustainability Environmental Sustainability There has been no broad environmental study Financial Sustainability and Level of Cost of the environmental costs and benefits con- Recovery in NRM tributed by the people of the NAC to this very Financial sustainability is improving. The AKRSP important river basin. Such a study is needed to has been increasing cost recovery on most inputs assess the net services provided, but it would and has reached zero subsidy on many items (see need to be linked with national work. With table L.6). Some elements of subsidy are con- respect to accelerated soil loss arising from land sidered justified and have been retained, such use practices, sustainability issues do not appear as a 30 percent subsidy on vegetable seeds in to be a major concern in comparison with the the resource-poor areas. But the current direc- vast movements of material arising from natural tion in the program is strongly toward increased weathering and collapses in this geologically cost recovery. No fees are yet charged for AKRSP young mountain region. master trainer or village specialist advisory serv- In the steep terrain typical of the region, with ices, except for service fees for vaccinations by rising mountains and huge annual snowmelt, village specialists, large quantities of both water and material are carried down into the valleys. Indeed, the devel- Sustainability and Self-Sufficiency opment of terraced land relies on the controlled In an area as remote and challenging as the NAC, harvest of that material. Similarly, the sealing of sustainability does not call for regional food long irrigation supply channels depends on silt production self-sufficiency. Income transfer and deposits early in the season. There are undoubt- non-farm income represent an efficient element edly some locations where, at the margin, f Table L.6 Levels of Cost Recovery (percent) Current (2000-01) Intervention Before 1998-99 Average areas Resource poor areas Seeds, wheat and maize 50 100 100 Seeds, fodder 50 100 100a Fodder, block plantation 50 50b 50, Potato seed 50 100 100 Vegetable seeds 50 100 70 Fruit tree seedlings 50 87b 87a Forest tree seedlings 0-50 67 50 Livestock, bulls and rams 50 50 50 Livestock, cows 50 100 100 Livestock, poultry 70 100 100 Fisheries, fingerlings 50 100 100 a. About 10 percent of households are supplied with 100 percent subsidized inputs. b. Limited to a maximum of 10 hectares. c. Only transport subsidy of about 13 percent. d. Transport and mortality of chicks were subsidized. 119 The Next Ascent: An Evaluation of the Aga Khan Rural Support Program, Pakistan improved land management would enhance pro- and may emerge from the ongoing livestock ductivity by either holding soil for longer where system studies. more is needed, or by helping to get it off faster and in a managed fashion where silt is damag- Marketing and Enterprise Development ing.21 But these appear to be mostly private or local community land management decisions. Relevance While interventions such as afforestation can Marketing and enterprise development are clearly temporarily detain more soil, and while indis- relevant for a remote region in a diversifying criminate tree cutting arising, for example, from economy, and are consistent with national objec- ill-considered new roads, can do the reverse tives. However, the objectives of this program and cause significant biodiversity loss, the like- component need to be clarified and linked to the lihood is low of human activity raising or low- overall mission statement. The directions taken ering the total silt load coming out of such areas appear to have been more opportunistic than by appreciable amounts. Nevertheless, a better guided by a clear objective. The challenge is how understanding of the broad environmental rela- to maximize leverage and be efficient in pick- tionships is warranted. ing potential winners. The program in this area With respect to road construction impact on has been modified substantially over the years forests and biodiversity, there have been some in response to the changing environment. The negative impacts. If the AKRSP moves toward AKRSP's activities have ranged over a wide num- larger multi-village infrastructure projects, envi- ber of enterprises. The challenges for enterprise ronmental assessments will be needed. development are formidable, including: "an With respect to pesticide use and fertilizer unfavorable legal and regulatory environment, runoff, there are no data. Training to prevent the a lack of appropriate financial services, a lack indiscriminate use of inputs and further work on of management technical and business skills, integrated crop management techniques should weak market information and business serv- be pursued as much for profitability as for envi- ices, and poor infrastructure services" (AKRSP ronmental reasons. However, the scale of fertil- 2000n). izer and pesticide use is still quite modest and The original marketing component concen- unlikely to present a major problem yet. But the trated on improving the marketing of fruit (fresh issue will need careful watching. The 1997 Joint and dried), livestock, and grains, with an empha- Monitoring Mission proposed the development sis on reducing losses of perishable products. of environmental Safe Minimum Standards (SMS) Farmer training and credit were provided, but in areas such as land use, soil conservation, much of the activity was primed with grant grazing management, and sustainable tree har- funding. The focus was on integrating market- vesting. While increased understanding at the vil- ing to raise farm revenue by bulking up, by clus- lage level of cropping and grazing system tering neighboring villages in marketing interactions with the physical environment is associations, and by grading, packaging, and important and could contribute to increased transport. incomes, we have doubts about the value of an Early results were mixed, with few successes SMS approach. We doubt that the technical rela- and some spectacular failures, especially where tionships and their interaction with social factors the AKRSP took on an agency function in mar- could be adequately understood. In dryland keting perishable produce. This led to empha- pastoral grazing systems in Africa, minimum sis on processing to add value to local surplus standards have proved impractical and often products and reduce post-harvest losses, with a misleading. However, a holistic resource man- notable success in apricot drying. Apricots exhib- agement approach incorporating direct local ited the high-value, low weight, local climatic observation of forage condition and changes, and comparative advantage, high labor demand, and relating this to village-level or system-level graz- modest technical demands that are needed for ing management, would be worth investigating success. Contract growing and air drying of apri- 120 Annexes cots, rather than sulfur drying, has demonstrated crop; seed potatoes, which started well but now even greater value added, and sustainability of has run into difficulties; vegetable seed pro- this system needs to be sought by spinning off duction, which has grown to quite a large enter- a sound enterprise. prise with contract growers-but is still a From the mid-1990s the emphasis has moved "project" striving for profitability and private toward enterprise development, with the range ownership; the shu fabric/clothing enterprise, of activities broadening away from the AKRSP's which also needs to become private; and agri- rural roots. Given the diversifying economy this cultural input supply shops, which are already was probably a relevant shift, but it has taken in private ownership. activities into areas where the AKRSP has less comparative advantage. The latest strategy is Efficiency centered on providing additional business devel- It is difficult to evaluate the efficiency of such a opment services for small- and medium-scale diverse collection of activities. No separate eco- enterprises, mainly through partnership with nomic rate of return has been estimated for this existing business service agencies and the pri- component. Efficiency has probably been mod- vate sector. In branching out from purely rural est so far. It is to be expected that this compo- production activities into small businesses, the nent would need a startup subsidy as the Enterprise Development Section has supported AKRSP's traditional strategy emphasizes exper- a wide range of enterprises, including vegetable imentation, trial and error, starting small, admit- seed production and marketing, shu (traditional ting failures, and moving on if needed. The cloth) production and tailoring, apricot pro- marketing and enterprise development compo- cessing, input stores and shopkeeping, tourist nent has epitomized this approach. hotels, mining (marble, slate, stone, antimony, Some individual marketing attempts have gems) and gemstone marketing, bottling, enter- demonstrated potential profitability, but have yet prise promotion exhibits, and formation of to be turned into viable, sustainable independ- related business and professional associations. ent operations (apricot drying and seeds pro- Notwithstanding this sectoral broadening, the duction are the obvious examples). The supply AKRSP continues to respond to the special needs shops appear to be viable owner-operated busi- of NAC producers for improved marketing of nesses. The new partnership approach, in asso- agricultural products, including fresh fruits, wal- ciation with other business development agencies nuts, peas, broiler chickens and small stock, and entrepreneurs, is promising and should-pro- potatoes, honey, and herbal teas. Emphasis on vide a more direct route to establishing viable reducing losses of perishable products remains enterprises, especially since the partners are likely a high priority, but, given past experience, the to be more selective in their choice of enter- note of caution in the Joint Review Mission prises and fill skill gaps in the AKRSP's ranks. report of 1999 on minimal direct involvement in Within the AKDN there appears to be potential product marketing is worth remembering. synergy to be had by the AKRSP's enterprise development activities being more closely allied Efficacy with and drawing on AKFED resources. Marketing and enterprise development to date have shown modest efficacy-a tale of many Institutional Development Impact hopeful starts but fewer lasting results that sug- and Sustainability gests the need for some change in approach. A As implied above, institutional development relatively high level of failure for new enterprises impact through this component has been mod- may be difficult to avoid given the particular geo- est generally, but substantial in limited areas. The graphic and logistic challenges characteristics of earlier cluster marketing associations have tended the NAC. Notable successes to date include apri- to wither once the AKRSP is no longer the driv- cot drying and packaging, which has greatly ing force. As more broadly for the program as added to producer returns for this important a whole, the AKRSP faces its greatest enterprise 121 The Next Ascent: An Evaluation of the Aga Khan Rural Support Program, Pakistan development challenge in devising ways to The AKRSP has also provided a wide range ensure that its activities become sustainable in of relevant training in enterprise skills such as institutional terms. With skilled staff and ample business management, hotel management, book- initial resources, much can be achieved at the keeping, post-harvest management, broiler farm- outset of a new venture, but this is not devel- ing, fruit and vegetable processing, poultry feed opment unless it is rapidly institutionalized, and chick supply, embroidery, carpentry, auto most probably as a profitable private enterprise mechanics, motor/generator rewinding, mining, or in partnership with a corporate patron. The gold panning, food processing, computer tech- more recent practice of working through part- nology, cobbling, and mineral appraisal. There nerships with existing agencies and private sec- is a need to evaluate the impact of this training tor entrepreneurs has a greater chance of leading on income generation in order to prioritize to establishing new, lasting institutions. future training activities. 122 ANNEX M: RECENT DONOR PROGRAM EVALUATIONS OF THE AKRSP: A SUMMARY OF MAIN CONCLUSIONS Draft Monitoring Mission Report which could be compensated by consultants; (Baltistan Region), Stiles Assoc./CIDA, some improvement in gender awareness could March 2001 help in improving the effectiveness of the General: impressive results at the output and women's program. outcome levels; institutionalizing of powerful Canadian Components: some aspects not community-based mechanism for participatory integrated with AKRSP or well understood, nor development; improvements a matter of fine reflected in logframe. [Other internal AKRSP/ tuning; dynamic Baltistan environment with CIDA aspects not summarized.] local elections, new village councils and elected union councils, increased involvement of donors Mid-term Review Mission-Gilgit and and NGOs, and strengthened (but not enough) Chitral Regions, DFID, March 2000 government line agencies. AKRSP meeting impli- Sustainability and Future Directions: significant cations of changes head on. AKRSP exemplifies progress on developing a strategy; prospects many of CIDA's key success factors for sustain- for significant future diversification of AKRSP's able results. focus and resources, e.g., away from service Social Organization: good progress-com- delivery and toward closer relationship with munity organizations effectively manage range government; AKRSP has much to offer Pak- of activities, VOs exceeded targets, but WOs istan's reform process and should re-orient behind target (staff shortage) and greater effort planning accordingly, particularly with respect needed; impressively wide range of activities to proposals for local elections and decentral- undertaken by VOs/WOs; and good progress in ization; suggest a "new look" AKRSP/DFID/ delivery of services/exceeding targets. Government partnership-e.g., "Sustainable Women's Program: reasonable progress in Livelihoods Development Programmes," specif- challenging, conservative environment (but over- ically to support the government's "Local Gov- shadowed by VOs-exclusive domain of men); ernment Plan 2000." impeded by lack of coherent gender strategy, Chitral Sectarian Issues: (subject of a separate shortage of qualified female staff, and lack of note.) home for women's program and gender equal- Poverty: AKRSP has contributed to a sub- ity in AKRSP (need champion at center); progress stantial reduction in poverty in NAG; infrastruc- toward solution is slow, and these activities ture and other schemes implemented by could suffer if CIDA withdraws in 2003. communities, especially irrigation, have had Capacity Development and Training: overall major impacts and contributed to poverty reduc- capacity of Baltistan RPO enhanced; research, tion; whole-community approach now needs monitoring, and reporting generally exemplary, to be replaced by targeted poverty reduction; and with staff nearly mastering CIDA's results-based AKRSP to develop poverty-targeting criteria for management, although reporting somewhat per- infrastructure projects and define poverty areas- functory and reluctance to make needed changes for discussion with DFID. to logframe agreement; high staff turnover in the Gender DFID to review with AKRSP the rec- Monitoring, Evaluation, and Research Section, ommendations of upcoming consultancy. 123 The Next Ascent: An Evaluation of the Aga Khan Rural Support Program, Pakistan Enterprise Development: need for ED strategy in designing special poverty projects regarding that is being developed for mainstreaming traditional relief systems. throughout AKRSP, of which key component Credit/Enterprise Development: AKRSP pro- will be staff training and exposure visits. vides unique service; caution on impact studies Credit and Savings: known for strong focus (criteria suggested); modest poverty alleviation on financial sustainability, but credit volume is potential of credit; credit/enterprise opportuni- now declining/reasons being investigated; AKRSP ties for women are modest; balance credit deliv- playing key role in work on proposed microfi- ery objectives and financial sustainability; nance bank. suggestions for revitalizing savings; EDC to be Environmental Screening: noted successful realistic on SME capabilities (given staff con- introduction of environmental screening for straints); need to identify agricultural marketing infrastructure projects, and should be applied to opportunities and devise more effective deliv- all projects; and follow-up workshop agreed. ery of business services. ImpactAssessment: impressed with high qual- Natural Resource Management (ARM): poor- ity of work, demonstrating major AKRSP impact, est families heavily dependent on farm income; despite attribution problems; and OED should recommend analysis of poverty aspects of NRM be invited to evaluate program for fourth time. subsectors; study land tenure issues; classify Increased Funds for Infrastructure: agreed diverse farming systems (before focusing on that increased funding could be justified, and any one zone such as single cropping); empha- would be discussed in context of evolving sus- sis on food and fodder security (through par- tainability strategy. ticipatory research/strengthened links with Natural Resource Management: significant research institutions), and training master train- part of program but expected results not deliv- ers; need coherent subsidy policy (end input sub- ered; new NRM strategy being prepared in time sidies); continue land development projects; for next AKRSP funding proposal. research outputs to guide on possible AKRSP Budget: funds expected to be spent by March assistance for management of common property 2003; consultancy funds well used, especially on resources; cautious/minimal involvement with training. produce marketing; continue extension for cash Extension of AKRSP/Gilgit: agreed for one crops, and applied research on high-value non- year. perishable cash crops; studies needed on effects Networking with other RSPs and NGOs: noted of wheat subsidies, poultry-women-poverty substantial impact of AKRSP on other RSPs in nexus, and market for trophy hunting. NRM Pakistan and in the South Asia region; endorse vision is moving to training master trainers, pro- AKRSP networking with other RSPs and NGOs; viding market information, facilitating trader and AKRSP has key role in rural development links, and ensuring input quality. forums in country and internationally. External Involvement and Interactions: exter- Lesson Learning: AKRSP to revise its lesson nal perceptions consistently positive; develop- learning and dissemination strategy and consult ment model acknowledged as important, but with DFID. AKRSP should be open to learning from other development initiatives; surprising number of Joint Review Mission, 1999 (all donors) external relations add to effectiveness of AKRSP; Social Organization: highly successful activities good government relations, which somewhat resulting in significant income increases; must improves government capacity; more effort balance new initiatives with continuing nurture required with NWFP government; synergies of VOs/WOs; new support packages needed from cooperation with other AKDN agencies, but (PPIs) to maintain institutional viability, but with mixed opinions on need for formal cooperation self/non-program finance; women's packages mechanism; AKRSP always non-sectarian, but needed to prepare them for leadership; AKRSP AKDN less so, and this causes confusion (an needs more female senior staff; and caution is AKDN issue); AKRSP active on national stage 124 Annexes regarding microfinance, but less on RSP forums itor benefit distribution, and make communities to which it should respond positively; shorter aware of equity; monitor V/WO representative- annual report is considerable improvement. ness, use equity analytical tools in planning, Sustainability: protracted debate; some AKRSP work on poverty targeting and related method- functions needed in NAC for 20 years; endow- ologies, and continue to increase support for ment concept raises issues discussed; AKRSP non-Ismaili villages and monitor program should not split into regional RSPs. resource allocations. Impact: highly positive, well documented, Infrastructure: AKRSP very successful in and responsive to expressed needs; burden of developing schemes and encouraging commu- assessments falls on overworked field staff, who nity execution and maintenance, bringing con- should be consulted on realistic indicators and siderable livelihood benefits; recommends methodologies; new initiatives need to be aware finding ways to enhance impact of infrastructure of potential impacts on established values and program (sample surveys), improve prioritization institutions; and there may be need for aug- of schemes with economic analysis (by con- mented social organization field staffing and sultant), review staffing needs of MIES and take training in program impact assessment. on women social organizers for sanitation/ Afterword: program should continue to focus hygiene schemes, review subsidy levels for irri- on economic and institutional development of gation and microhydel schemes, develop joint NAC, principally through VOs and WOs; AKRSP's technical training with SAP and train government credibility arises from its commitment, continu- staff in social organizer work, provide technical ity of procedures, and the terms of partnerships assistance for AKDN agencies in water sup- with communities; and the long-term future of ply/hygiene technologies, and organize a Moun- NAC depends on unconventional vision, which tain Technology Workshop. AKRSP should stimulate. Natural Resources Management: takes 20 per- cent of DFID funds for diverse activities, which Annual Review Mission (Gilgit and may not all be justified by impacts, and roles not Chitral Regions), DFID, 1999 clear of government, private sector, and NGOs Strategic Approach: endorses AKRSP's strategic in NRM activities; recommends refocus on planning (the sustainability and NRM strategy smaller number of viable activities in frame- reviews) and recommends AKRSP catalyze wider work of integrated farming systems approach, regional strategic planning. and implement a participatory research and Gender: good progress, but better focus development approach to identify priorities and needed to involve women more in planning, technologies. broaden their options, meet their desire for safe Environment: most activities are environ- drinking water, and avoid increased commer- mentally beneficial but greater consideration of cialization that marginalizes women; recom- impacts is needed; recommends introducing mends increasing AKRSP female field staff and (mostly simple) screening of all projects (espe- WO contacts, improve gender analysis, disag- cially an EIA of Risht coal mine), staff training gregate gender data in all activities and dis- in impact assessment, and hiring of consultants seminate, expand monitoring of women's role to assist institutionalizing the process and to do in all program activities, increase women's activ- an EIA of Risht coal mine. ities in non-Ismaili areas, and set a target date Enterprise Development: good progress in for universal access to safe drinking water. promoting job creation and skills upgrading in Equity: good progress in assessing equity/ a generally difficult but nascent enterprise cul- poverty impacts and in developing criteria for ture; recommends (in addition to some internal identifying resource-poor communities; pilot process details) resolving staffing requirements poverty projects being developed by Gilgit RPO; of EDS and EDC, deciding EDC approach to recommends sample surveys, data sharing enterprise finance, develop local staff to take on around program, mapping of poor areas, mon- tasks that are currently contracted out, conduct 125 The Next Ascent: An Evaluation of the Aga Khan Rural Support Program, Pakistan impact assessments of all EDC/EDS schemes, tance from NGOs; and pace of socio-economic send staff for international training. differentiation is accelerating. Savings and Credit: very impressive system Moving Beyond the VO: input delivery by streamlined to two products-collateralized AKRSP to VO was major intervention at expense group loans and uncollateralized small individ- of attending to other social arrangements, but ual loans, very good credit performance and new strategy represents a more pluralistic sound management systems; recommends use approach to include social targeting and more of logframe indicators, developing impact assess- of the social development agenda. ment instruments, and staff networking with Women's Real Agenda: going beyond poul- organizations inside and outside Pakistan, and try and vegetable schemes with WOs, new chal- attendance at international conferences/train- lenge is to help women meet other strategic ing courses. needs. Other Recommendations (aside from internal Village-level Infrastructure Development: after DFID process needs): survey importance of PPIs have met all criteria-productivity, migrant labor and impact on women and chil- sustainability, equity, and environmentally dren at home; continue to develop links with and sound-challenge is to articulate key priorities seek to influence government policies; inde- for future, including access for others to spon- pendent evaluation of the Training and Learn- sor infrastructure. ing Programme (social analysis) in 2000; various Natural Resource Management: need to break consulting inputs; need to develop a "commu- 15-year tradition of package delivery and train- nications strategy" to disseminate AKRSP learn- ing, not substitute for government extension ing; AKRSP to review training program and service, and identify where concentrated effort encourage inclusion of government staff; good is needed, such as common property resource progress on impact assessments but AKRSP may management; potential for linkages with national need to allow MER greater flexibility in hiring and external research institutions; suggest atten- consultants; AKRSP to discuss with donors tion to non-land-based agricultural services enter- whether a fourth OED evaluation is required; and prises such as seed project and Shubinak; and workshop for early 2000 to review logframe for challenge of initiating work on "low external reporting to DFID. input" agriculture, particularly in high-altitude areas. From Small Farmer Development to Credit Program: preparations proceeding for Sustainable Livelihoods-A Case Study turning the donor-supported revolving credit on the Evolution of AKRSP in Northern fund into a development finance institution; and Pakistan, Khaleel A. Tetlay and challenge of developing sufficient revenue for Muhammad A. Raza, Aga Khan financial sustainability. Foundation (Pakistan), November 1998 Enterprise Development: importance of non- farm activities is increasing; and need for larger- Major Lessons and Emerging Challenges: scale enterprise is rationale for proposed Principles and Practices ofManagement: utility "Enterprise Support Company"-challenge of shown of a "participatory, flexible, and catalytic" laying strategic and organizational groundwork. approach; rural people can undertake develop- Revisiting Human Resource Development Insti- ment with a trustworthy partner and will adopt tute: did not work out in late 1980s, but need new forms of organization and keep partnership to consider whether to reopen that debate-part to gain direct benefits; and lists 13 points of of AKRSP or of AKDN, what niche areas, for (good) management practice from first OED whom, manpower and cost recovery? evaluation of AKRSP. Conclusion: over 15 years AKRSP has "blazed Changing Socio-economic Contours: great a path of rural development"; being replicated social changes since program was planned, in within and outside Pakistan; ways of earning response to government initiatives and assis- livelihoods have changed, as have people's 126 Annexes expectations for future and their role in deter- and two cautions-AKRSP resource constraints mining that future; and many second-generation restrict its role (cannot be a surrogate for gov- challenges and opportunities for AKRSP, which ernment agriculture and research services), and its record suggests it will surmount to reach a horticultural development depends on reliable higher plateau. and profitable post-harvest arrangements. Mountain Infrastructure and Engineering: Joint Monitoring Mission, 1997 (sixth most tangible impact/impressive performance; annual mission for the donors Chitral hydel revolution continues; a noticeable concentrating on Baltistan and Chitral improvement in quality of project proposals; sub-programs, and the Gilgit core office) but larger cluster schemes require more complex General: 1997 saw a leaner and stronger, more oversight and careful review of all documenta- field-oriented AKRSP emerge from the transition tion to avoid cost overruns. of 1996/97; seeking a balance between equity Genderlssues: commercialization and devel- and growth; improved annual planning; starting opment of interest groups/LDOs in danger of on new directions for this funding phase. leaving women further behind; economic Credit and Savings: impressive improvements empowerment needs to be accompanied by in professionalization; systems strengthened; social empowerment; WOs beginning to take up segregation continues of credit and savings oper- water supply projects; WSO staff not increasing ations in anticipation of creating a bank (now with WO growth; AKRSP places women's par- delayed); savings moderated, while credit still ticipation and benefits high on agenda and all grows; swing from VO/WO credit toward enter- staff should be held accountable for meeting prise loans; emerging problems in Baltistan and these goals. with LDO lending; and credit and savings needs Social Development: good senior-level dis- to become more self-sufficient. cussions but little attention given in field to Enterprise Development: has become more institutional development of community organ- facilitating than directly involved in enterprises; izations; social development course being pre- mixed results with new corporate credit (which pared; attention being given to equity as well as should be halted); activities depend on a few broad-based growth, including poor areas and people; need staff strengthening and manage- poor groups in villages; policy paper needed on ment processes in preparation for creating an poverty strategy; and participatory implemen- Enterprise Support Company. tation and monitoring should be developed. Natural Resource Management: program con- Training and Human Resource Development: tinues to plan NR development and build insti- impressive level of community training contin- tutions for NRM; creation of Begusht Community ies; staff training enhanced with external assis- Game Reserve has strengthened sense of own- tance; personnel management practices being ership of commons; agriculture, livestock, and strengthened; enthusiastic TSU staff need further forestry undergoing increasing commercializa- support and guidance; and need to build and tion, and AKRSP needs to assess impact of this support some staffing areas (social over techni- trend on NRM strategies; AKRSP has begun an cal staff). integrated approach to breed improvement and Linkages: Joint Monitoring Mission conducted fodder security for remoter areas where livestock comprehensive review of linkages; many oppor- is the main livelihood. tunities, but caution in order-government link- Agricultural Production andMarketing: sen- ages constrained by declining resources, and sible focus on horticulture, vegetables, and pri- donors' expectations for NGOs to solve gov- vate sector initiatives; constraints to production ernment capacity problems should be refocused growth are the (harsh) environment, logistics, and on donor country strategies, such as civil serv- the subsidy on government wheat sales; with high ice reform; and linkages with other AKDN agen- male labor migration, much of the burden, and cies are satisfactory, particularly with the health many of the benefits, of agriculture fall to women; service. 127 The Next Ascent: An Evaluation of the Aga Khan Rural Support Program, Pakistan Management: need for stronger core capac- Exit Strategy: donor-driven demand for an ity in social development, gender, and enter- "exit strategy"; term seems abrupt and longer- prise development; also need greater regional term support is warranted; viability of an endow- capacity in social organization (and gender in ment to ensure financial security should be Baltistan); reorganization and other management investigated. changes have made it possible to improve field The Future ofJoint Monitoring: if donors con- programs, and RMT can appraise proposals, tinue Joint Monitoring Mission in 1998 it should logframe permits verifying against objectives drop linkages topic, cover all regions by split- (should be expanded from Gilgit to program- ting, but less comprehensively, and spend three wide), and more can be done to include strat- weeks in field. egy in planning; and internal auditor still needed. 128 ENDNOTES Chapter 1 4. Government outlays in the Northern Areas 1. Defined as: on agriculture, animal husbandry, forests, fish- Relevance-The extent to which the objectives eries, local bodies, and rural development totaled of the program are consistent with the current approximately Rs. 204 million in fiscal 1999/2000, development priorities of the country and the while the AKRSP's total expenditure was about Northern Areas and Chitral (NAC). Rs. 199 million. However, the proportion spent Efficacy-The extent to which the objectives on operations as opposed to overhead was of the program were achieved, taking into about 50 percent in the AKRSP and less than 5 account the relative importance of the different percent in government. objectives. 5. In fiscal 1999/2000 total government out- Efficiency---The extent to which the program lays in the Northern Areas were Rs. 2,546 mil- achieved a return higher than the opportunity lion, of which Rs. 910 million was for cost of capital and achieved benefits at the least development. For fiscal 2000/2001 the devel- cost compared to alternatives. opment budget in Chitral is Rs. 35.8 million. Institutional development impact-The extent Details of the nondevelopment budget are not to which the program improved the ability of the available. NAC to make more efficient, equitable, and sus- 6. For example, in Chitral District the Animal tainable use of its human, financial, and natu- Husbandry Department has no operational funds ral resources. in its budget for 2000/2001. A senior district Sustainability-The resilience to risk of net agricultural official explained how he must seek benefit flows from the program over time. formal permission from the commissioner's office 2. AKF, "Proposal for a Rural Development to leave his station in town. Program in the Northern Areas of Pakistan," 7. As explained to the evaluation team by Mr. November 27, 1981. Sang-e-Marjan, Chief Secretary, Northern Areas, in a meeting on May 10, 2001. Chapter 2 8. The mission reviewed the coefficients used 1. The poverty goal called for cutting in half and obtained independent comments on the the proportion of people living in extreme NRM coefficients from two specialists who had income poverty of less than US$1 a day by 2015. worked in the area before. The mission con- Currently, average per capita income in the cluded that there was over-optimism in some Northern Areas is about 50 cents US per day. enterprises, but that it was not excessive. The 2. Poverty incidence is the percentage of main coefficients where adjustments would people who fall below the current Pakistan lower benefits were wheat seed, which showed basic needs level, the measure of which is the rather high yield increases in the absence of fer- cost of achieving a minimum bundle of basic tilizer, and wheat straw, where differences needs at current prices. between improved and local varieties were 3. Pakistan has embarked on a massive pro- substantial. gram of decentralization by requiring elections 9. AKRSP 2000c; Andrew Foster (consultant), to a series of local bodies called Dehi Councils, unpublished mission working note. with a District Council at the apex. This program 10. Microhydel is the common term in Pak- was scheduled for completion in 2001. In the istan. These are small-scale, usually village-sized Northern Areas, however, the first stage involved capacity, hydropower generation units that take establishing village-level councils through a water from small channels rnm from a snowmelt process of nomination and acclamation. Bodies water source and run it down a tube to a gen- with more democratic processes are expected to erating turbine at the bottom. follow, but the timetable is uncertain. See Pak- 11. Economists normally use a fourfold clas- istan Government, National Reconstruction sification of public and private goods: private Bureau 2000. For an account of AKRSP's role, goods, such as land, houses; toll goods, such as see Akram 2001, p. 3. toll roads and bridges; open-access or common 129 The Next Ascent: An Evaluation of the Aga Khan Rural Support Program, Pakistan property goods, such as grazing land, some remodel its entire rural development program forests, fisheries; and pure public goods, such along NRSP lines. as air, information, a clean environment. 22. A fund of $10 million yielding 10 percent 12. The Joint Review Mission's Final Report would cover about 7 percent of the AKRSP's contains a useful if largely theoretical annex on operating costs, Sustainability and the AKRSP: subsidies. But it also concludes that the AKRSP Plans for the Future, June 2000, p. 34. The should formulate a well thought through subsidy endowment idea has been on the table for some policy. years. The 1997 Joint Monitoring Mission report 13. A forum consisting of the ADKN agency recommended the investigation of the viability general managers meets occasionally and the of an endowment. boards have some common members. 23. An analogy with agricultural research is 14. "Collaboration with the AKRSP at the apposite. operational level has strengthened government capacity in a lasting way to a very limited extent." Chapter 3 Joint Review Mission 1999, p. 77. 1. The evaluation team found the 1998 "Insti- 15. The AKRSP salary package (salary and tutional Maturity Report" a useful analysis in some benefits) is about the same as the government's, respects, but with three weaknesses. First, it cat- but there are half as many grades and no steps egorized community organizations based on indi- within grades. Thus, in the AKRSP, salaries are cators, but did not attempt to account for more flexible and promotion is faster. differences. Second, the indicators were selected 16. In particular, the universities of Bath and by the AKRSP and not by villagers. The AKRSP's East Anglia in England. understanding of "maturity" could be at variance 17. The AKRSP's stated gender policy is, how- with villager perceptions. Nor were the indicators ever, clear and progressive. See Gender Policy, chosen obviously reflective of maturity. For exam- AKRSP 2000a. ple, does the acceptance of a subsidized NRM 18. A recent gender assessment of AKRSP package really indicate institutional maturity, or programs in Baltistan reported a corporate cul- just being in the right place at the right time to ture of discomfort about gender relations and say yes? In summary, the analysis did not explain issues. The same report also highlighted the why some organizations remain vigorous while gap between the message the AKRSP is pro- others have declined. Third, the report did not moting in the community and the structure and draw sufficiently from the evidence of the appar- practices within the AKRSP. See Moffat 2001. ent modest correlation between institutional matu- 19. A recent report by a gender consultant rity and number of years under the program. makes the useful suggestion that an existing 2. DFID's Annual Review Mission in 1999 male member of the core team should be nom- pointed to a special area that the AKRSP may inated to share this role. See Seeley 2000. have overlooked in working with WOs when it 20. The NRSP has the greatest geographic cov- suggested that a survey be done of the impor- erage among Pakistan's rural support programs. tance of male labor migration and the impact on It works in more than 30 districts and has an women and children left behind. There may annual expenditure of more than Rs. 200 million. also be a linkage here with the special credit It organizes socially viable groups of 20 to 30 needs of women that the new bank could households and helps them identify micro- explore. investment plans and opportunities at the house- 3. The 2000 DFID Mid-term Review Mission hold, group, and village levels. Plans and report noted that whereas the "whole-commu- schemes are implemented by individuals and nity approach" had made a major impact, the communities through their own efforts and with time had come to replace it with a targeted credit provided by the Khushhali Bank. poverty reduction approach. 21. This is the outcome of a recent decision 4. The genesis of a more targeted poverty by the Provincial Government of the Punjab to approach has been slow but thorough. The 1997 130 Endnotes Joint Monitoring Mission report noted that atten- pose. Results so far are encouraging, at least in tion was being given to equity as well as broad- one of the two villages visited. The vast major- based growth, including poor areas and poor ity of targeted households have substantially groups in villages, and that a policy paper was increased their incomes as a result of the program; needed on poverty strategy. they have also joined the community organiza- 5. Experience elsewhere has identified some tion, although the outcome of this is not known. ways to handle social exclusion. The first step is to identify non-participating households. This can Chapter 4 be done by a survey of all households to record 1. Other measures under consideration to the activities of men and women (separately). reduce risks of internal lending include adding This is followed up with an investigation, usually training of community organization office- by co-villagers, to find out why non-participating bearers in internal lending management and households are not participating. Usually the rea- adding internal lending audit procedures to son is that they are, or feel they are, lower status audits of community organizations done by vil- or poorer than other households, or unwanted by lage accountants. them. Once the reasons are clear, established vil- 2. Includes loans overdue for any period. lage groups can be encouraged to look for ways The loan loss ratio is the total write-off divided to solve the problem. This is what is now hap- by the average loan outstanding. pening in the AKRSP's poverty project. The prob- 3. Total amount of loans with balances in lem is that the poverty initiative is coming at a time arrears for which the AKRSP does not hold any when the AKRSP is already moving away from collateral. intense village involvement, and, in any case, it 4. Does not include financial costs. operates in only a handful of villages. 5. The NRSP comes closest to the AKRSP in 6. This section draws on women's perceptions terns of the maturity of its Microfinance Program, where possible, and also on the useful impact but the Microfinance Group's Performance Indi- reports on aspects of the women's program pre- cators Report for 2000 does not give figures for pared by the Monitoring, Evaluation, and Research the NRSP. and Field Management Units in each region. 6. A network of NGOs that disseminates best 7. The CIDA Monitoring Mission Report of practice and promotes microfinance in Pakistan. March 2001 suggests that the Baltistan women's 7. DFID 1998. The rapid growth of schemes program is constrained by lack of a coherent gen- in Chitral is attributed to the high cost and unre- der strategy, shortage of qualified female staff, liability of public electricity supplies there, com- lack of a home for the women's program, and pared with subsidized supplies in Gilgit and gender equity in the AKRSP. The DFID Annual Baltistan. This poses a public policy issue with Review Mission in 1999 (on Gilgit and Chitral respect to the disincentive for private microhy- regions) called for increasing female field staff del schemes in Gilgit and Baltistan. and the level of contacts with WOs, particularly 8. Technical assistance has been provided in in non-Ismaili areas. Pakistan to the IFAD-funded Chitral Agricul- 8. The AKRSP tables do not segregate train- tural Development Project, to schemes in Dir- ing for WO members, but, for example, poultry Kohistan (IUCN), Patan-Kohistan (KODEP), trainees alone (all women) total 4,000 over the North Waziristan Agency, and Murree (IUCN), full period. and in Afghanistan, as well as to private micro- 9. It aims to equip villagers with the skills to hydel schemes, and technical assistance and alter substantially the situation of the poorest. training has been provided to the International Poverty Committees, comprising both men and Center for Integrated Mountain Development women, are formed to help identify the poorest (ICIMOD), Nepal, and to staff of two Afghanistan and then work with them to develop and imple- aid agencies. ment individual poverty reduction programs. 9. With respect to comparative costs across the They are given an endowment fund for this pur- NAC, an AKRSP study compared 230 projects 131 The Next Ascent: An Evaluation of the Aga Khan Rural Support Program, Pakistan constructed in 1998/99 by regions. The main 13. In 1997, the constituents of farm incomes findings were: costs per household were sig- were as follows: crops/vegetables, 34 percent; nificantly lower in the Gilgit region because fruit, 12 percent; forestry, 14 percent; and live- schemes had more families; Chitral had signifi- stock, 40 percent. cantly higher unit costs per acre and per foot of 14. The 1997 Joint Monitoring Mission report channel because of limited land; community noted that the AKRSP had begun an integrated contributions to costs were from just over 20 per- approach to breed improvement and fodder cent in Baltistan and Chitral, to as much as 43 security for the more remote areas, where live- percent in the Gilgit region, reflecting ability to stock are the main livelihood. pay; and community contributions were highest 15. In the context of poverty analysis, the for link roads-the predominant public good 1999 Joint Review Mission suggested classify- component of infrastructure interventions- ing the diverse farming systems before focus- whereas equity and efficiency would suggest that ing on one zone (such as single-cropping), public goods should get the largest subsidy. and DFID's Annual Review Mission of 1999 DFID's Annual Review Mission of 1999 recom- recommends refocusing NRM activities on a mended reviewing subsidy levels for irrigation smaller number of activities in a framework of and microhydel schemes. an integrated farming systems approach. Ear- 10. AKRSP 2000a, p. 19, section 4. lier, Whiteman (1985), in an exceptional and 11. The common view has been that wheat arguably underutilized piece of work, laid the production has no comparative advantage in technical groundwork for farming systems clas- the NAC. However, the issue is complex. Apart sification, but without the social and economic from the fact that there is a modest quality dif- overlay. ference with wheat grain to some consumers (not 16. These are areas of dry, rocky rangeland so modest in some cases-in Teru, due to both extending up to the high mountain pastures quality of a high-altitude Tibetan variety and above the irrigation channels. The area is a transport, the price was substantially above the high-altitude desert with limited forage growth subsidized price of wheat from down-country), from direct rainfall. But there is a summer flush wheat is also a fodder crop. About two-thirds of watered by glacier and snowmelt providing sea- livestock nutrients come from cereal straw. The sonal pasture-the source of most of the annual yield of fodder from a local variety can be more livestock weight gain. than twice that from an improved variety. More- 17. A social accounting matrix, or SAM, explic- over, winter wheat can substantially increase itly draws out forward and backward linkages fodder production if uncontrolled livestock graz- in an economy, including a regional economy, ing can be managed. Also, increasingly, sea- and shows how value added generated in the sonal labor requirements will be a factor, as economy is distributed across the principal eco- will competing demand for more high-value nomic agents-businesses, households, and the crops. It is therefore not so obvious in a systems state. A full SAM should not be estimated for the context what would happen to wheat produc- NAC-there is neither time nor data with which tion if wheat from down-country were not sub- to do so. But the framework of a SAM used as sidized. This is an issue warranting some farm an organizing device would provide a logical and management research that incorporates risk. consistent appraisal of where the enterprise The 1999 Joint Review Mission report called for development program should focus. studies of the effects of the wheat subsidy. 18. This external income aspect was not cov- 12. The subcomponents-including partici- ered in the February AKRSP strategy discussion patory variety selection, seed supply, livestock paper, husbandry support, veterinary supplies, breed improvement for large stock, poultry, and mas- Chapter 5 ter and village specialist training-are addressed 1. The AKRSP is actively considering the in Annex L. options. See, for example, AKRSP 2001. 132 Endnotes 2. The challenge in building government partnership would be a development coalition. development capacity lies in transferring the 9. Such concerns are not new. The 1997 Joint concepts and tools used by the AKRSP in its Monitoring Mission report reviewed linkages community work to the key branches of gov- and noted that, while there are many opportu- ernment present in the rural areas in ways that nities, caution was also in order as government support and reinforce the democratic and admin- linkages were constrained by declining resources istrative reforms at the core of the government's and the AKRSP could not be expected to solve decentralization strategy. Failure to do so, thereby government capacity problems. allowing other agencies to continually substitute 10. "Government departments in the main re- for the state, leaves unresolved the fundamen- main under-resourced and under-motivated." tal problems of accountability and governance The Task Force on Sustainability 2000, p. 10. in the relationship between citizen and state. 11. The apparent success of the NRSP can be These issues are a commonplace in the devel- attributed, in part at least, to the strength of its opment literature. For a discussion in relation to partnerships, especially with government. But, the AKRSP, see Wood 1996, p. 15. as has been noted in earlier OED reports, rela- 3. The broadening of mandates among the tions that are too close risk co-option. AKDN institutions to include all peoples in the 12. However, with a development coalition, NAC (rather than the Ismaili community only) the AKF would need to consider playing a less allows the AKDN to look at the development directive role than at present. challenge in nmuch the same way as government. 13. In this way, donors could play a direct part 4. Dehi Councils have been charged with in the development consortium. However, all substantial duties, including the management parties, including government, should contribute and supervision of all government staff and to the fund, proceeds from which would only assets within the boundaries of the village. be used for partnership purposes. However, it is not clear where the requisite 14. A functions-based approach determines resources will come from. See Ordinary Gazette the appropriateness of a community organiza- ofPakistan, Part II, Islamabad, 26th November tion based on the functional outcome sought. It 1999. accommodates the possibility of continued sup- 5. The DFID Mid-Term Review Mission of port for multipurpose VOs or WOs where that March 2000 saw prospects for significant future is the articulated village need, but it also accom- diversification of the AKRSP's focus and modates more specialized organizations such resources-for example, away from service deliv- as production or marketing organizations where ery and toward a closer relationship with that function is given highest priority by a com- government. munity group. 6. These challenges are not new. All are artic- 15. In developing a differentiated approach, ulated, perhaps in a lower key and with differ- demand for services or inputs should not be con- ent emphasis, in Task Force on Sustainability fused with their relevance to the poor. Demand 2000. For example, p. 21 gives evidence of past is not the same as need. Demand says more collaboration with government and the need to about awareness of an individual of what is on help strengthen the public sector to play its des- offer, incentives and subsidies, and knowledge ignated role, while p. 22 outlines the need for of the rules of access. Meeting "demand" is not closer integration and coordinated strategic plan- about equity, although it may offer efficiency ning in the AKDN. gains from an organizational point of view. Not 7. An examination of possible closer inte- responding to demand may be a key part of a gration in the AKDN and the problems involved, differentiation strategy. The AKRSP needs to be commissioned by the Aga Khan Foundation, is clear that there are tradeoffs in responding to already under way. demand. 8. Ten years at least, but more likely 20 (see 16. Most of which, one should remember, Joint Review Mission 1999, p. 89). In effect, the make charitable contributions to Ismaili funds. 133 The Next Ascent: An Evaluation of the Aga Khan Rural Support Program, Pakistan 17. This would call for a time-bound, objectives- specifically as a means of preparing women for based agreement between the AKRSP and every leadership. organization, with clear obligations on each side. Independence becomes a joint objective. Annex E Every participating group has a plan. From the 1. The survey contained 39 questions, repro- AKRSP side, it involves defining inputs and indi- duced in this annex in full. The response rate cators for success. It ensures efficient use of staff was 76 percent (170 out of 224), with little vari- time. Visits have an objective related to the group's ation by grade, gender, or location. ability to become independent. A withdrawal 2. In general the lowest scores were given by strategy is particularly helpful for new groups. If staff in the Core Office, who interacted with the independence is the objective from the outset, and team more than most others and who are more inputs are presented as time-bound, then efficient familiar with management tools and analytical and innovative ways of moving up the institutional processes. This lends credence to the upward maturity ladder are more likely to be tried. Flex- bias hypothesis. Women gave uniformly higher ibility would be required, with different rules for scores than men. Whether this is a more severe service delivery operating for groups at various expression of upward bias or a genuine posi- stages. This approach will work less well for vil- tivism is impossible to discern. lage institutions in isolated or resource-poor areas 3. There was only one opportunity to explain for which the AKRSP is likely to be the sole the aims and procedures of the survey to AKRSP provider. In these circumstances the incentive to managers and no opportunity to address staff at operate independently may be low. lower levels. Thus, not only was this survey 18. AKRSP India, for example, is moving novel for AKRSP staff, it was also a surprise. toward federations (8 to 30 organizations per fed- eration). Benefits there include shared goals, Annex L economies of scale in input supply and market- 1. Other measures to reduce risks of internal ing, stronger negotiation with external agencies, lending under consideration include adding legal recognition for village organization mem- training of corrununity organization office bear- bers, improved handling of inter-village conflict, ers in internal lending management and adding support for weaker village organizations, address- internal lending audit procedures to village ing needs not supported by the AKRSP (India), accountants' audits of community organizations. and promoting new village organizations with less 2. Includes loans overdue for any period. AKRSP support. Risks include economic power 3. The loan loss ratio is the total write-off shifting away from the village organization- divided by the average loan outstanding. addressed by ensuring that organizations can 4. Total amount of loans with balances in withhold dues-capture by political parties, and arrears for which the AKRSP does not hold any flooding the federation with too many activities. collateral. 19. The evaluation team found a difference 5. Does not include financial costs. of perception between the Northern Area gov- 6. The NRSP comes closest to the AKRSP in ernment and the AKRSP on the role of the Dehi the maturity of its Microfinance Program, but the Councils. The government expectation seems to Microfinance Group's Performance Indicators be that they will, in due course, handle all Report for 2000 (AKRSP 2000h) does not give fig- investment decisions at the village level. The ures for NRSP. AKRSP expectation seems to be that they will 7. Skills such as in construction of roads in handle only government-funded investments. steep and unstable terrain, identifying viable What happens in the end will probably depend water sources, channel alignment and con- more on village attitudes and community evo- struction, rock blasting, stonework, and bridge lution than on government or the AKRSP. design and construction. 20. The 1999 donors Joint Review Mission sug- 8. Technical assistance has been provided in gested that women's packages be developed Pakistan to schemes in Dir-Kohistan (IUCN), 134 Endnotes Patan-Kohistan (KODEP), North Waziristan staff say the grant amounts to not more than a Agency, and Murree (IUCN), and in Afghanistan, third of the public sector funds needed for con- and technical assistance and training has been struction by contractors of similar works and in provided to the International Centre for Inte- the absence of a participatory approach, the sit- grated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), Nepal, ing, quality of construction, and sustainability of and to staff of two Afghanistan aid agencies. public works has often proved to be problem- 9. Defined by the Development Assistance atic in the Northern Areas. Committee as "The totality of positive and neg- 12. The common view has been that wheat ative, primary and secondary effects produced production has no comparative advantage in the by a development intervention, directly or indi- NAC. However, the issue is complex. Apart rectly, intended or unintended" (DAC/OECD from the fact that there is a modest quality dif- 2001). ference with wheat grain to some consumers 10. A consultant study of 132 (100 AKRSP and (not so modest in some cases-in Teru, because 32 non-AKRSP) infrastructure projects by the of both the quality of a high-altitude Tibetan vari- Mountain Infrastructure and Engineering Sec- ety and transport, the price was substantially tion (Kwaja 1999), which supports other find- above the subsidized price of wheat from down- ings, concluded that infrastructure projects country). Wheat is also a fodder crop. About were in a reasonably good physical state, two-thirds of livestock nutrients come from although there were some weaknesses in main- cereal straw. The yield of fodder from a local tenance; that extensions of older village proj- variety of wheat can be more than twice that ects exhibited better maintenance than new from an improved variety. Moreover, winter projects started from scratch; that new projects wheat can substantially increase fodder pro- started from scratch exhibited higher benefits duction if uncontrolled livestock grazing can be and more equitable distribution of benefits; managed. And increasingly, seasonal labor that the level of maintenance of AKRSP proj- requirements will be a factor, as will compet- ects was similar to other external agency proj- ing demand for more high-value crops. It is ects; that a majority of projects had substantial therefore not so obvious in a systems context benefits but that the range across villages is what would happen to wheat production if quite wide; that the distribution of benefits is imported wheat were not subsidized. This is an generally very equitable; and that there seems issue warranting some farm management to be a trend in recent years toward projects research that incorporates risk. with more equitable benefits. 13. In 1997, the constituents of farm incomes 11. A Regional Comparative Cost Analysis of were as follows: crops/vegetables, 34 percent; AKRSP's Investment in Infrastructure Projects fruit, 12 percent; forestry, 14 percent; and live- (AKRSP 2000g). The scale of village inputs is stock, 40 percent. believed by staff to be higher than is often cred- 14. These include linkages between such ited for three reasons. First, infrastructure "costs" things as altitude, slope/radiation, sunlight hours, quoted in AKRSP documents frequently do not soils (old versus new), water source (including include village contributions, thus understating glacial water temperature), market distance, end the level of infrastructure investment achieved of season (crunch) period of harvest/grazing by the program. Second, the estimated 30 per- animal return/early snowfall, boundary wall ani- cent contribution from the villages to the cost of mal control (winter wheat not being commonly infrastructure schemes is the "book cost" esti- sown because of livestock damage, yet yielding mated by the AKRSP. AKRSP staff have rou- huge fodder gains over spring planting), and sea- tinely noted that the hours of village labor and sonal prices (especially including fodder prices). quantities of local materials provided by the vil- 15. For example, why is there a very weak lage organization usually amount to a value relationship between price and quality in live- well above that formalized in the agreement- stock? Is this why forage is often sold Is the intro- typically double the estimate. Moreover, AKRSP duction of improved animals changing this? 135 The Next Ascent: An Evaluation of the Aga Khan Rural Support Program, Pakistan 16. These are areas of dry, rocky rangeland tematic manner, mapping seasonal availability of extending up to the high mountain pastures livestock feed, considering not only inter- and above the irrigation channels. The area is a intra-cropping zone linkages but also spatial high-altitude desert with limited forage growth aspects of village locations and seasonal use of from direct rainfall. But there is a summer flush pastures vis-h-vis stall-feeding during the win- watered by glacier and snow melt providing ter months. seasonal pasture-the source of most of the 18. Typically, about 20 varieties enter the annual livestock weight gain. first year. These are narrowed to about 10 prom- 17. In 1999, the AKRSP embarked on a three- ising selections the next year, and finally to year international collaborative research project, about 6 varieties that are offered to farmers. funded by the European Economic Community 19. For maize, PPB should ultimately be tar- and involving seven national and multinational geted at all zones where this crop is grown, as institutions. It was spearheaded by a team from recommended by a consultant study. the Macaulay Land Use Research Institute 20. Noted also by the JRM. (MLURI) in Aberdeen, U.K. This project offers 21. Crop damage from silt load in irrigation promise for understanding constraints in a sys- water is often a problem. 136 REFERENCES AKRSP (Aga Khan Rural Support Program). 2001. - . 2000n. Enterprise Development Annual "A Strategy for the Future." Discussion Paper. Report 2000. Core Office, AKRSP, Pakistan. 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(Cited in AKRSP 2001.) opment. 1995-1999. Maintaining Biodiversity Whiteman, P.T.S. 1985. A Technical Report of in Pakistan with Rural Community Develop- Agricultural Studies (1982-1984) in Gilgit ment. Project Process Evaluation, Lessons District, Northern Areas, Pakistan. Aga Khan Learned during the PRIF (Pilot Phase). Gilgit, Rural Support Program, Integrated Rural Pakistan: IUCN. 139 OPERATIONS EVALUATION DEPARTMENT PUBLICATIONS The Operations Evaluation Department (OED), an Ordering World Bank Publications independent evaluation unit reporting to the World Customers in the United States and in territories not Bank's Executive Directors, rates the development served by any of the Bank's publication distributors may impact and performance of all the Bank's completed send publication orders to: lending operations. Results and recommendations are reported to the Executive Directors and fed back into The World Bank the design and implementation of new policies and P.O. 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