WORLDBANKGROUP G D R AS1A(ECA) ANDCENTRAL ELUROPE RIKPROF]LES AFFECTED BY 100-YEAR AFFECTED BY 250-YEAR CAPITAL LOSS FROM 250-YEAR 0.ouain12 FLOOD EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKE GDP $20.3 billion*Gn Cyprus nlin ' C yprus's population and econo- by industry and agriculture making The table displays the provinces at my are exposed to earthquakes a small contribution. Cyprus's per greatest normalized risk for each per- and floods, with earthquakes capita GDP was $16,600. ii. In relative terms, as shown in the posing the greater risk of a high table, the province at greatest risk of impact, lower probability event. The This map displays GDP by province in floods is Gazimakusa (Famagusta), model results for present-day risk Cyprus, with greater color saturation and the one at greatest risk of earth- shown in this risk profile are based indicating greater GDP within a prov quakes is Famagusta. In absolute on population and gross domestic ince. The blue circles indicate the risk terms, the province at greatest risk product (GDP) estimates for 2015. of experiencing floods and the orange of floods is Gazimausa (Famagusta), The estimated damage caused by circles the risk of earthquakes in and the one at greatest risk of earth- historical events is inflated to 2015 terms of normalized annual average quakes is Nicosia. US dollars. of affected GD. The largest circles represent the greatest normalized Just over 70 percent of Cyprus's pop- risk The risk is estimated using flood ulation lives in urban environments. and earthquake risk models. The country's GDP was approximate- UN BUFFER ZONE Gazim4usa (Famagusta) ly US$20.3 billion in 2015, with over r 80 percent derived from services, Lefko a (Nicoiia Nicosia MEDITERRANEAN SEA most of the remainder generated TOP AFFECTED PROVINCES 0 Famagusta EARTHQUAKE m c b Annual Average of Affected GOP ANNUAL AVERAGE OF ANNUAL AVERAGE OF anc AFFECTED GDP (AFFECTED GOP UN BUFFER ZONE 0 Negligible GaziTagusa (Famagusta) Famagusta d by EARTHQUAKE Lefkosa (Nicosia) 0 Larniaca Girre (Kyrenia) Gazimagusa (Famagusta) C wt GOP (billions of $) Famnagusta D Paphos Larniaca i Lefkosa (Nicnsia) a There isa high correlation Limassol Nicbsia T0 (r=.95) between the Nicosia Giroe (Kyre enia) a rag population and GtP oo Paphts Lionassol e a aver province. WORLDBANKGROUP A51A(ECA) ROPE ANDECENTRAL E|GDR his map depicts the impact of event, then less frequent events make flooding on provinces' GDPs, a larger contribution to the annual represented as percentages of average of affected GDP. Thus, even their annual average GDPs affect- if a province's annual affected GDP ed, with greater color saturation seems small, less frequent and more indicating higher percentages. The intense events can still have large bar graphs represent GDP affected impacts. by floods with return periods of 10 years (white) and 100 years (black). The annual average population affect- The horizontal line across the bars ed by flooding in Cyprus is about 400 also shows the annual average of GDP and the annual average affected GDP affected by floods. about $4 million. Within the various provinces, little impact results from When a flood has a 10-year return floods with short return periods; period, it means the probability of thus, relatively infrequent floods have occurrence of a flood of that magni- large impacts on these averages. tude or greater is 10 percent per year A 100-year flood has a probability of occurrence of 1 percent per year This means that over a long period of time, a flood of that magnitude will, NGirne (Kyrenia) Gazimausa (Famausta) on average, occur once every 100 years. It does not mean a 100-year Lefkoga (Nicosia) Nicosia MEDITERRANEAN SEA flood will occur exactly once every 100 years. In fact, it is possible for a flood of any return period to occur more than once in the same year, or to appear in consecutive years, or not Nicosia Famagusta to happen at all over a long period of time. Paphos If the 10- and 100-year bars are the Larnaca same height, then the impact of a 10- UN BUFFER ZONE year event is as large as that of a 100- year event, and the annual average of Limasso Affected GOP I(%) for Annual Average of Affected GDP (%) affected GDP is dominated by events 10 and 100-year return periods that happen relatively frequently. One h[ock 1% If the impact of a 100-year event is Annual average 0 1