‫ري‬ ‫اع ا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫د‬ ‫را‬ ‫با‬ ‫ﻣﺎ اﻟﺿرر اﻟواﻗﻊ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺑﻧﯾﺔ اﻟﺗﺣﺗﯾﺔ ﻟﻼﻗﺗﺻﺎد اﻟﺳوري ﺟراء اﻟﺻراع اﻟﺳوري اﻟداﺋر؟ ﻣﺎ ھﻲ آﺛﺎر اﻹﻧﻔﺎق اﻟﺟدﯾد ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺑﻧﻰ اﻟﺗﺣﺗﯾﺔ؟‬ ‫ﺑﺈﻧﺷﺎء ﻣﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ﺣﺳﺎﺑﯾﺔ‪RAND‬ﻗﺎم اﻟﺑﻧك اﻟدوﻟﻲ ﺑﺎﻟﺗﻌﺎون ﻣﻊ ﻣؤﺳﺳﺔ‬ ‫؟‬ ‫ا‬ ‫د‬ ‫ها‬ ‫ام‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ُ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺷﺑﻛﺔ اﻹﻧﺗرﻧت ﺗﺳﻣﺢ ﻟﻠﻣﺳﺗﺧدم ﺑﺣﺳﺎب ﺗﻛﺎﻟﯾف اﻟﺣرب اﻟﺳورﯾﺔ‬ ‫وﺗﻘدﯾرھﺎ‪ .‬وھذه اﻟﻣﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ‪.‬‬ ‫اﻟﺣﺳﺎﺑﯾﺔ ﺗدﻣﺞ اﻟﺑﯾﺎﻧﺎت اﻟواردة ﻣن اﻟﺑﻧك اﻟدوﻟﻲ‬ ‫اﻟﻣﻌﺎدﻟﺔ اﻟﺣﺳﺎﺑﯾﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺷﺑﻛﺔ اﻹﻧﺗرﻧت ﻟﻠﻣﺳﺗﺧدﻣﯾن ﺑﺗﻘدﯾر اﻷﺛر اﻻﻗﺗﺻﺎدي ﻟﻠدﻣﺎروﺗﺳﻣﺢ‬ ‫ﻣﻊ اﻟﺗﻛﮭﻧﺎت اﻻﻗﺗﺻﺎدﯾﺔ ﺑﻐرض ﺗﻘدﯾر اﻟﺗﺄﺛﯾر اﻻﻗﺗﺻﺎدي ﻟﻠدﻣﺎر واﻹﻧﻔﺎق‬ ‫واﻹﻧﻔﺎق ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺑﻧﻰ اﻟﺗﺣﺗﯾﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻣدن اﻟﺳت اﻟﺗﻲ ﻣزﻗﺗﮭﺎ اﻟﺣرب ﻓﻲ ﺳورﯾﺎ؛ أﻻ وھﻲ ﺣﻠب‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺑﻧﻰ اﻟﺗﺣﺗﯾﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺳﺑﻌﺔ ﻗطﺎﻋﺎت رﺋﯾﺳﯾﺔ ـ أﻻ وھﻲ اﻟزراﻋﺔ واﻟﺗﻌﻠﯾم‬ ‫ودرﻋﺎ وﺣﻣﺎة وﺣﻣص وإدﻟب واﻟﻼذﻗﯾﺔ‪ .‬ﺟدﯾر ‪.‬ﺑﺎﻟذﻛر أن اﻟﺗﺣﻠﯾل اﻟذي ﯾرﻛز ﻋﻠﻰ ھذه اﻟﻣدن ـ‬ ‫واﻟطﺎﻗﺔ واﻟﺻﺣﺔ واﻹﺳﻛﺎن واﻟﻧﻘل واﻟﻣﯾﺎه واﻟﺻرف اﻟﺻﺣﻲ ـ وذﻟك ﻓﻲ‬ ‫واﻟﻘطﺎﻋﺎت اﻟﺳﺑﻌﺔ اﻻﻗﺗﺻﺎدﯾﺔ ـ ﺗم ﺗﺿﻣﯾﻧﮫ ﻓﻲ ﺗﻘرﯾر ﺗﻘﯾﯾم اﻻﺣﺗﯾﺎﺟﺎت واﻷﺿرار اﻟﺻﺎدر ﻋن‬ ‫اﻟﻣدن اﻟﺳت اﻟﺗﻲ ﻣزﻗﺗﮭﺎ اﻟﺣرب‪ .‬ﻛﻣﺎ ﺗﺳﻣﺢ ﻟﻠﻣﺳﺗﺧدﻣﯾن ﺑﺗﻧوﯾﻊ‬ ‫اﻟﺑﻧك اﻟدوﻟﻲ واﻟذي اﻋﺗﻣد ﻓﻲ إﻋداده ﻋﻠﻰ ﺻور اﻟﻘﻣر اﻟﺻﻧﺎﻋﻲ وﺷﺑﻛﺎت اﻟﺗواﺻل اﻻﺟﺗﻣﺎﻋﻲ‬ ‫اﻻﻓﺗراﺿﺎت اﻷﺳﺎﺳﯾﺔ ﻓﯾﻣﺎ ﯾﺗﻌﻠﻖ ﺑﻣدى اﻟدﻣﺎر اﻟواﻗﻊ وﻛﺛﺎﻓﺔ اﻹﻧﻔﺎق ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫اﻟﻣﻌﺎدﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻣن أﺟل ﺗﻘدﯾر ﻣدى اﻟﺿرر اﻟواﻗﻊ ﻟﻐﺎﯾﺔ ‪ .2016‬وﺑﺎﻟﻧﺳﺑﺔ ﻟﻛل ﻗطﺎع‪ ،‬اﻋﺗﻣدت‬ ‫‪.‬‬ ‫اﻟﺑﻧﻰ اﻟﺗﺣﺗﯾﺔ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ إﻟﻰ ﺗﻘدﯾر اﻷﺛر اﻻﻗﺗﺻﺎدي اﻟﻔﻌﻠﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ إﺟﻣﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫اﻟﺣﺳﺎﺑﯾﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺛﻼﺛﺔ أﻧواع ﻣن اﻻﻓﺗراﺿﺎت ﯾﻣﻛن ﻟﻠﻣﺳﺗﺧدم ﺗﻌدﯾﻠﮭﺎ ﻟﻠﺗﻧﺑؤ ﺑﺎﻵﺛﺎر اﻻﻗﺗﺻﺎدﯾﺔ‬ ‫‪.‬ﻟﮭذه اﻟﻣدن اﻟﺳت ‪ GDP‬اﻟﻧﺎﺗﺞ اﻟﻣﺣﻠﻲ‪1 .‬‬ ‫‪:‬ﻟﻠدﻣﺎر اﻟﻣﺳﺗﻘﺑﻠﻲ واﻹﻧﻔﺎق ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺑﻧﻰ اﻟﺗﺣﺗﯾﺔ‬ ‫‪.‬‬ ‫اﻟﻣﻌﺎدﻟﺔ اﻟﺣﺳﺎﺑﯾﺔ اﻟﻣﻌدة ﻋﻠﻰ ﺷﺑﻛﺔ اﻹﻧﺗرﻧت ﻣﻛﻣﻠﺔ ﻟﺗﻘرﯾر وﺗﻌﺗﺑر‬ ‫ءا‬ ‫اع ا ا ‪:‬‬ ‫اء ا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ر‬ ‫ءا‬ ‫‪ .1‬ا‬ ‫اﻗﺗﺻﺎدﯾﺎت إﻋﺎدة اﻹﻋﻣﺎر واﻟﺑﻧﺎء ﻟﻣﺎ ﺑﻌد اﻟﺣرب اﻟﺻﺎدر ﻋن اﻟﻣرﺻد‬ ‫اء‬ ‫ر‬ ‫ع وا‬ ‫ا ص‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ءا‬ ‫ع‬ ‫ا ص‬ ‫ا‬ ‫اﻻﻗﺗﺻﺎدي ﻟﻣﻧطﻘﺔ اﻟﺷرق اﻷوﺳط وﺷﻣﺎل أﻓرﯾﻘﯾﺎ اﻟﺗﺎﺑﻊ ﻟﻠﺑﻧك اﻟدوﻟﻲ ﻟﻌﺎم‬ ‫‪.‬‬ ‫ا نا‬ ‫اع ا ا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫‪ ،2017‬واﻟذي ﯾوﻓر ﺗﻘدﯾرات ﺗوﺿﺢ ﺗﻛﺎﻟﯾﻔﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ إﻟﻰ ﺗﺣدﯾد ﻣﺑﺎدئ‬ ‫اﺳﺗراﺗﯾﺟﯾﺔ إﻋﺎدة اﻹﻋﻣﺎر واﻟﺑﻧﺎء‪.‬ھو ﯾﺗﻣم اﻟﺗﻘرﯾر ﺣول ﺗﻘﯾﯾم اﻵﺛﺎر ـ‬ ‫ر وا ء‪:‬وا ء‪ :‬إ‬ ‫ت إ دة ا‬ ‫و ر‬ ‫ا‬ ‫‪ .2‬إ‬ ‫اﻻﻗﺗﺻﺎدﯾﺔ واﻻﺟﺗﻣﺎﻋﯾﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺳورﯾﺎ ﺗﺣت ﻋﻧوان "ﺗﻛﻠﻔﺔ اﻟﺣرب‪ :‬اﻟﻧﺗﺎﺋﺞ‬ ‫ر‬ ‫إ دة ا‬ ‫ع ‪.‬و‬ ‫ر وا ء‬ ‫ت إ دة ا‬ ‫و ر‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ـ‬ ‫‪".‬اﻻﻗﺗﺻﺎدﯾﺔ واﻻﺟﺗﻣﺎﻋﯾﺔ ﻟﻠﺻراع ﻓﻲ ﺳورﯾﺎ‬ ‫ا ق‬ ‫ل‬ ‫ا ىا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫إ‬ ‫ء‬ ‫وا‬ ‫‪.‬‬ ‫ا‬ ‫‪.‬و‬ ‫ع‬ ‫ا ج‬ ‫ل‬ ‫ا ىا‬ ‫مو‬ ‫ا‬ ‫إ‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ار ا ارد ا‬ ‫ر وا ء‬ ‫ار إ دة ا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ر وا ء‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ا ع‪ .‬و‬ ‫را ا‬ ‫دة‬ ‫ً‬ ‫إ‬ ‫ا‬ ‫نا‬ ‫ً‬ ‫وده‪،‬‬ ‫ل‬ ‫ءا‬ ‫ر وا‬ ‫ت إ دة ا‬ ‫ة‬ ‫د ا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ق‪.‬‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ا‬‫ا‬ ‫إ‬ ‫ر وا ء وأ ذ‬ ‫ت إ دة ا‬ ‫د‬ ‫ر‬ ‫إ دة ا‬ ‫ة‬ ‫ا ق و ءة ا‬ ‫ا ‪:‬‬ ‫ل‬ ‫ها ا‬ ‫أي‬ ‫ت‪ .‬و‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ات‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ءو‬ ‫وا‬ ‫‪.".‬‬ ‫إ اد " رات‬ ‫ا د ا‬ ‫أ‬ ‫ا ىا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫إ‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ج‪:‬‬ ‫ا‬ ‫‪.3‬‬ ‫د ‪.‬‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ى‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ّ‬ ‫ع‬ ‫ا ى‬ ‫ي‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫‪ 0.5‬إ أن إ‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ل‪،‬‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫رات‬ ‫‪ 1.00‬دو ر ا‬ ‫ل ‪ 0.50‬دو ر‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫ا‬ ‫د ا ا ت‬ ‫ة‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ا ا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ع‪ .‬و‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ى‬ ‫ا دا‬ ‫إ اؤ‬ ‫ا ثا‬ ‫ً‬ ‫‪ ،‬وا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫‪.‬‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ة‬ ‫ات ا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ة‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫وا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫نا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ف‬ ‫ت‬ ‫تا‬ ‫مأ‬ ‫ا‬ ‫م‬ ‫ع‪ .‬و أن‬ ‫ج‬ ‫تا‬ ‫رو‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ءا‬ ‫ر‬ ‫إ‬ ‫ا ا‬ ‫نا‬ ‫(و‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ت)‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫إ‬ ‫ر وا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫إ‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫إ‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ر‬ ‫ف م‬ ‫ر‪،‬‬ ‫إ دة ا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫‪.‬‬ ‫ا ا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫دة‬ ‫ت‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ء‬ ‫ر وا‬ ‫ت إ دة ا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫إ‬ ‫ات‬ ‫إن ا‬ ‫ر وا ء ـ وا‬ ‫إ دة ا‬ ‫أ‬ ‫ل‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ـإ‬ ‫ر وا ء‪ .‬و‬ ‫ارد إ دة ا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫تا‬ ‫دة ا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ا ا‬ ‫ً‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫‪ %10‬إ‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫إ‬ ‫ات‬ ‫‪ ،‬نا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ء‪.‬‬ ‫ر وا‬ ‫ت إ دة ا‬ ‫ىا د‬ ‫ي م ‪2010‬‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫‪ (2017 ،‬و‬ ‫رات )دو ر أ‬ ‫ر‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ر دو ر و‬ ‫ة‬ ‫ر دو ر ودر ‪1.4‬‬ ‫‪16.2‬‬ ‫‪:‬‬ ‫نا‬ ‫ر دو ر‬ ‫ا اع وا ي ر ا ‪34.2‬‬ ‫ر دو ر‪ 2 .‬ه ا ن ا‬ ‫ر دو ر وا ذ ‪4.8‬‬ ‫ر دو ر وإد ‪1.3‬‬ ‫‪7.0‬‬ ‫ر دو ر و‬ ‫‪3.5‬‬ ‫م ‪.2010‬‬ ‫ر دو ر‬ ‫ا ري وا ي ر ا ‪67.5‬‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ب ‪ %51‬إ‬ ‫ذ‬ ‫ا‬ ‫إد‬ ‫ة‬ ‫در‬ ‫ا نا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫إ‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫إ‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫إ‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ت إ دة‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫إ دة‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ر‬ ‫ءا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ر‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ر‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ر‬ ‫ا‬ ‫)‪(US $B, 2017‬‬ ‫)‪(US $B, 2017‬‬ ‫)‪(US $B, 2017‬‬ ‫)‪(US $B, 2017‬‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ت‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ا را‬ ‫‪$-1‬‬ ‫‪$0‬‬ ‫‪$-1‬‬ ‫تا‬ ‫را ا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫‪-2.9%‬‬ ‫ا‬ ‫‪0%‬‬ ‫ا‬ ‫‪-2.9%‬‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ا و‬ ‫ات وا را‬ ‫ا را وا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫‪$0‬‬ ‫‪$8.75‬‬ ‫ا‬ ‫‪0%‬‬ ‫‪40%‬‬ ‫‪100%‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫ا‬ ‫‪.‬‬ ‫إ جا‬ ‫إ‬ ‫رة‬ ‫ا‬ ‫رة‬ ‫ا‬ ‫رة‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫‪$-0.09‬‬ ‫ا‬ ‫‪$-0.09‬‬ ‫‪$0‬‬ ‫‪$-0.09‬‬ ‫تا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫را ا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫‪0%‬‬ ‫ا‬ ‫‪-0.3%‬‬ ‫ا‬ ‫‪-0.3%‬‬ ‫ا‬ ‫‪$0.57‬‬ ‫‪100%‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫ي‬ ‫وا ادي وا‬ ‫ا ا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫‪$0‬‬ ‫ا‬ ‫‪12%‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫ب‬ ‫ة‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ا صا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫رة‬ ‫ا‬ ‫رة‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ي‪.‬‬ ‫رأس ا ل ا‬ ‫و‬ ‫رة‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫‪$-4.09‬‬ ‫‪$0‬‬ ‫‪$-4.09‬‬ ‫تا‬ ‫را ا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫‪-12%‬‬ ‫ا‬ ‫‪0%‬‬ ‫ا‬ ‫‪-12%‬‬ ‫ا‬ ‫إ‬ ‫وا اج‬ ‫تا‬ ‫وا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫‪$0‬‬ ‫‪$4.02‬‬ ‫ا‬ ‫‪0%‬‬ ‫‪38%‬‬ ‫‪100%‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪2.6‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ء‪.‬‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ل‬ ‫ا‬ ‫رة‬ ‫ا‬ ‫رة‬ ‫ا‬ ‫رة‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫‪$-1.21‬‬ ‫‪$0‬‬ ‫‪$-1.21‬‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫را ا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫‪-3.5%‬‬ ‫ا‬ ‫‪0%‬‬ ‫ا‬ ‫‪-3.5%‬‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ري‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ى‬ ‫ا‬ ‫‪$0‬‬ ‫‪$1.13‬‬ ‫ا‬ ‫‪18%‬‬ ‫‪100%‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪2.7‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫ا‬ ‫‪.‬‬ ‫ا‬ ‫إ‬ ‫وره‬ ‫رة‬ ‫ا‬ ‫رة‬ ‫ا‬ ‫رة‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ن‬ ‫ا‬ ‫‪$-0.26‬‬ ‫‪$0‬‬ ‫‪$-0.26‬‬ ‫ن‬ ‫عا‬ ‫را ا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫‪-0.8%‬‬ ‫ا‬ ‫‪0%‬‬ ‫ا‬ ‫‪-0.8%‬‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ر‬ ‫ن وا‬ ‫تا‬ ‫وره‬ ‫ا‬ ‫‪$0‬‬ ‫‪$14.4‬‬ ‫ا‬ ‫‪9%‬‬ ‫‪100%‬‬ ‫‪0.05‬‬ ‫‪0.2‬‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ري‪.‬‬ ‫دا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫رة‬ ‫ا‬ ‫رة‬ ‫ا‬ ‫رة‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ت‬ ‫ا‬ ‫وا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫‪$-0.1‬‬ ‫‪$0‬‬ ‫‪$-0.1‬‬ ‫ع‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫را ا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫‪-0.3%‬‬ ‫ا‬ ‫‪0%‬‬ ‫ا‬ ‫‪-0.3%‬‬ ‫ا‬ ‫رة وأي‬ ‫را‬ ‫ت‬ ‫وا ا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫‪$0‬‬ ‫‪$0.52‬‬ ‫ا‬ ‫‪2%‬‬ ‫‪100%‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫ا‬ ‫‪.‬‬ ‫يآ‬ ‫دي‬ ‫طا‬ ‫رة‬ ‫ا‬ ‫رة‬ ‫ا‬ ‫رة‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ف‬ ‫ه وا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫‪$-0.04‬‬ ‫‪$0‬‬ ‫‪$-0.04‬‬ ‫ا‬ ‫‪-0.1%‬‬ ‫ا‬ ‫‪0%‬‬ ‫ا‬ ‫‪-0.1%‬‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ف‬ ‫ع ا ه وا‬ ‫را ا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫‪$0‬‬ ‫‪$0.19‬‬ ‫ا‬ ‫‪10%‬‬ ‫‪100%‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫)‪(WASH‬‬ ‫ا‬ ‫وا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫رة‬ ‫ا‬ ‫رة‬ ‫ا‬ ‫رة‬ ‫ا‬ ‫رة‬ ‫ا‬ ‫إ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ا‬ ً ‫رة‬ ‫ا‬ . ‫ا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫رات‬ ‫ات‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ر‬ ‫ءة إ دة ا‬ ‫ت‬ ‫ا‬ ‫و اب‬ ‫درا‬ ‫ورد‬ ‫س‬ ‫إ ع ا‬Hansen and ‫را‬ ‫ت إ دة ا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ ا‬،‫ر )أي‬ ‫ت إ دة ا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ا‬ Tarp) (2001): ) ‫ة ا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ري‬ ‫ت‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ر‬ ‫ت إ دة ا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫إ‬.) ‫ا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫إ‬ ‫ء‬ ً ‫ن‬ . 0.3 0.4 1 0 1 2 100% 250% 500% $0 ّ ‫تا‬ ‫ا‬ $-6.79 $0 $-6.79 ّ ‫ا‬ ‫ا‬ -19.8% 0% ‫ا‬ -19.8% ‫ا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫رة‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫رة‬ ‫ا‬ ‫رة‬ ‫ا‬ ‫( و‬Daniel Egel) ‫لإ‬ ‫(؛ ودا‬ ‫ا و‬ ‫ا‬ ) (Lili Mottaghi) ‫( و‬Shanta Devarajan) ‫د را ن‬ ‫اد‬ ‫إ‬ .(RAND ) (Chara Williams) ‫را و‬ ‫( و‬Eric Robinson) ‫ن‬ ‫( وإر رو‬Joel Kline) ‫ا ا‬ Bayar, Yılmaz and Hasan Alp Özel, "Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth in Emerging Economies," 2014, Journal of Knowledge Management, Economics and .Information Technology Bloom, David E., David Canning and Jaypee Sevilla. "The E ect of Health on Economic Growth: A Production Function Approach." World Development 32, 1 (2004): 1– .13 Btlas, "Population Pyramids of the World from 1950 to 2100: Syrian Arab Republic, 2015." Downloaded from http://www.populationpyramid.net/syrian-arab- .republic/2015/ on April 17, 2017 Calderon, C., E. Moral-Benito, and L. Serven, 2011, “Is Infrastructure Capital Productive? A Dynamic Heterogeneous Approach,” World Bank Policy Research Working Calderon, C., E. Moral-Benito, and L. Serven, 2011, “Is Infrastructure Capital Productive? A Dynamic Heterogeneous Approach,” World Bank Policy Research Working .(Paper No. 5682 (Washington: World Bank Carlino, Gerald and Robert P. Inman, “Macro Fiscal Policy in Economic Unions: States as Agents,” 2013, National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper .#19559 .Congressional Budget O ce, "The Macroeconomic and Budgetary E ects of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita: An Update," September 29, 2005 Crafts, Nicholas, "Transport infrastructure investment: implications for growth and productivity," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Volume 25, Number 3, 2009, .pp.327–343 .Department of Health and Human Services, "For a Healthy Nation: Returns on Investments in Public Health," 1994 .Devarajan, S. and Mottaghi, L. 2017. “The Economics of Post-Con ict Reconstruction in MENA” MENA Economic Monitor, Washington, DC: World Bank, April .ETF, "Transition From Education To Work In Syria: Results Of The Youth Transition Survey 2009," 2012 .Gobat, Jeanne and Kristina Kostial, “Syria’s Con ict Economy,” 2016, IMF Working Paper .Hansen, H. and F. Tarp, 2001, “Aid and Growth Regressions,” Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 64, pp. 547–70 .Hurlin, C. and F. Aresto , 2010, “Are Public Investments E cient in Creating Capital Stocks in Developing Countries?” Economic Bulletin, Vol. 30, pp. 3177–87 .Kiliçer, Sema, "A preliminary survey of the housing sector in OIC Countries," Journal of Economic Cooperation among Islamic Countries, 1996 Mokdad, Ali H et al., "Health in times of uncertainty in the eastern Mediterranean region, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013." The Lancet Global Health, October 2016, Volume 4, Issue 10 , e704-e713 .Ou, Peng, Ruting Huang, and Xin Yao, "Economic Impacts of Power Shortage," 2016, Sustainability .Pereira, Alfredo M., "Is All Public Capital Created Equal," 2000, The Review of Economics and Statistics .Pritchett, L., 2000, “The Tyranny of Concepts: CUDIE (Cumulated, Depreciated, Investment E ort) Is not Capital,” Journal of Economic Growth, Vol. 5, pp. 361–84 Schreyer, C., Schneider, C., Maibach, M., Rothengatter, W., Doll, C., and Schmedding, D. (2004), External Costs of Transport: Update Study, Karlsruhe and Zurich, IWW .and INFRAS Syrian Observer, "What Has Syria Lost With the Destruction of Aleppo?" December 16th, 2016, .http://syrianobserver.com/EN/Features/32111/What_Has_Syria_Lost_With_Destruction_Aleppo ”.UNHCR and UNDP, 2015, “Impact of Humanitarian Aid on the Lebanese Economy .UNICEF, "Economic Loss from School Dropout due to the Syria Crisis A Cost-Bene t Analysis of the Impact of the Syria Crisis on the Education Sector," 2016 United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, "Special Report: FAO/WFP Crop and Food Security Assessment Mission to the Syrian Arab Republic." November .14, 2016 .United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, "Counting the Cost: Agriculture in Syria after six years of crisis." April 3, 2017 .World Bank, "World Development Indicators: GDP (current US$)," http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?locations=SY World Bank, "Agriculture, value added (% of GDP)," http://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx? source=2&country=SYR .World Bank, "Syrian: Damage Assessment," mimeo, 2015 .World Bank, "Syrian: Damage and Needs Assessment," Excel data from Damage Assessment, early 2016