v0t 0 X . ~~20263 R~~~~i pr .=- Yi for publi dic_,i =.~~~~~~~~~~~IHR M, --at ts H~~~~JC Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling KENT GUSTAVSON RICHARD M. HUBER JACK RUITENBEEK EDITORS Copyright © 2000 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/THE WORLD BANK 1818 H Street, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20433, U.S.A. All rights reserved Manufactured in the United States of America First printing February 2000 The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the author(s) and should not be attributed in any manner to the World Bank, to its affiliated organizations, or to members of its Board of Executive Directors or the countries they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility for any consequence of their use. 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For permission to reprint individual articles or chapters, please fax your request with complete information to the Republication Department, Copyright Clearance Center, fax 978-750-4470. All other queries on rights and licenses should be addressed to the World Bank at the address above or faxed to 202-522-2422. ISBN: 0-8213-4628-8 Kent Gustavson is proprietor of Gustavson Ecological Resource Consulting and works in association with the Centre for Coastal Health Society in Gabriola, British Columbia, Canada. Richard M. Huber is an environmental specialist in the Latin American and Caribbean Environmentally and Socially Sus- tainable Development Sector Management Unit of the World Bank. Jack Ruitenbeek is president of H.J. Ruitenbeek Resource Consulting Limited in Gabriola, British Columbia, Canada. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data has been applied for. . . ... . - b ; - . 1 a : 'a; . ' ... s - : ': ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~_.9 . ... . 4, ... -T->; 5 : - :. .. ; , :i. . : :. ... S ; ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~.. .. .. ..;. - . ' :.. rA as _ S; WXtf-,g'12 - ;~~t ;11 4 Foreword Everything should be as simple as possible, but not simpler - Albert Einstein Coral reefs are sometimes referred to as "canaries of the Montego Bay site. Montego Bay Marine Park (the Park) sea" because of their early warning ability to show near- is a bold experiment that was initiated in 1992. The Mon- shore oceanic stress. Because of their biological diver- tego Bay Marine Park Trust, a non-government organiza- sity, they are also called "rainforests of the sea". Coral tion (NGO), was given responsibility by the Government reefs are vital to the well-being of millions of people. of Jamaica to manage the Park under the authority of the 1997 and 1998 were devastating years for many of the Natural Resources Conservation Authority. world's coral reefs. Elevated sea surface temperatures in Over a period of several years, the people of Montego many tropical regions triggered the most geographically Bay have endured the repercussions of poor planning widespread bleaching and the heaviest mortality of corals (Chapters 2 and 11): ever documented in such a short period. "Managers and . Increasing pollution of the inshore, coastal and ocean scientists from around the globe are particularly concerned environment; about this past year's unprecedented, global bleaching . Damage to productive coastal ecosystems, which in- episode,' said D. James Baker, NOAA administrator. "The creases losses of life and property from coastal hazards bleaching and mortality rate may even worsen in the years and disasters; and, ahead. This serves as a wake-up call for more research * Conflicts of interests among user groups. and monitoring to help protect these valuable coral reef ecosystems." According to the Global Coral Reef Moni- They have also begun to share a common vision: toring Network's status report for 1998 (Wilkinson 1998), e A desire to increase the economic benefits flowing from some reefs had up to 95% coral mortality in shallow the use of coastal resources; and, waters. These unprecedented events have elevated con- e Perceived economic opportunities associated with new cem about coral reef degradation worldwide. Coral reef forms of development in the coastal zone. ecosystems have been identified as one of the highest Potential solutions include: priority areas for conservation (Hatziolos, Hooten, and . Participatory approaches to planning, involving NGOs Fodor, 1998). and community based groups; Coral reef managers and government officials trying * Strong institutions with accepted mechanisms for cross- to save their valuable national resources need manage- sectoral cooperation; ment-related information on coral reefs. The research results presented in the following chapters merit much * Enforcement of and compliance with integrated poli- attention because it is useful for decision support and cies through the use of positive reinforcement, encour- training in integrated coastal zone management (ICZM). agement, and incentives; The work on cost-effectiveness analysis has developed ' Establishment of recognized boundaries with the rights integrated economic and ecological models, relying ex- and rules accepted by the user groups with provisions tensively on fuzzy logic procedures to model impacts and for sanctions; and, effects of interventions within the reef environment * A seamless flow of information through different (Chapters 3, 4 and 8). The marine system valuation work mediums. provides economic valuations of coral reefs, demonstrat- A new Montego Bay Marine Park management plan ing the use of different modeling methods and treating is being implemented that includes: i) a new park zoning key policy issues within this context (Chapters 5, 6, 7 plan (with mooring and demarcation buoy programs); and 12). ii) a watershed management program; iii) alternative in- This research focused on three case study sites: come andretrainingprograms for fishers; iv) merchandise, Montego Bay, Jamaica, the south coast of Curacao, and user fee and ecotourism programs for revenue generation; The Maldives, with primary attention being paid to the v) education programs for school children, church groups, Foreword v and the community; vi) volunteer and public relations US$153 million over 25 years (Chapter 8). Second, "What programs; vii) enhanced enforcement to protect fisheries is a coral reef worth?" When a cruiseship hit a reef in the resources from poaching; and, viii) research and moni- Gulf of Aqaba some years ago, Egypt sought US$10,000/ toring programs to evaluate the recovery of the ecosys- m2 of damaged reef. This suggests that reefs are among tem and track the success of park programs (Chapter 2). the most valuable real estate in the world. What would it Montego Bay was an ideal case study site, because it cost to rehabilitate reefs that have become degraded? How realizes its revenues equivalently from manufacturing, much should we invest in reef rehabilitation? Who should services, and tourism; making it a more complex economy pay? The least cost and valuation (benefits) exercises, than the usual sun, sand and sea destination. Most impor- utilized together, suggested an "optimal" improvement tant, the Trust Board, managers, and park rangers of the of coral reef abundance of 13% in Montego Bay, requir- Montego Bay Marine Park took great interest in the re- ing net expenditures of US$27 million, primarily through search and organized each of the 5 national level work- installation of a sediment trap, waste aeration, installa- shops and dozens of local level workshops held there over tion of a sewage outfall, implementation of improved the last 5 years. Additionally, the Trust helped to develop household solid waste collection, and implementation of the methodology, field test the decision-support model, economic incentives to improve waste management by and complete the pre-test and 1000 sample CV survey. the hotel industry (Chapter 9). What is clear about decision support tools is that they The Montego Bay work also polled more than 1,000 assist in decision making, but are still an imperfect art. tourists and local people through a contingent valuation A critical next step will be to continue to refine the model survey (Chapter 6). The objective was to answer a key in Montego Bay (or one of the other sites), and monitor question: "How much would you be willing to pay to the results over time to see whether the predicted changes protect the coral reef?" This and other valuation tech- in ecosystems quality occurred with the introduction of niques indicated that the total benefit attributable to the certain management interventions. This implies a long- reef in its current condition is approximately US$470 term commitment by the Trust, but it will need to be done million, and that every 1% change in abundance is likely at some point to test the validity and ultimately the utility to generate a marginal benefit of approximately US$10 of the approaches presented here. million (Chapter 9). Most of the value is attributable to The process of consultation with the user groups was direct tourism revenues dependent on healthy coral reefs extensive at levels from the fisherfolk to senior decision (Chapter 5). Coastal protection and non-use benefits are makers and the private sector. The Greater Montego Bay next in terms of planning importance. Redevelopment Company, representing trade groups and In the social arena, the Montego Bay work highlights the private sector, was involved throughout. They took several major insights regarding the importance of: i) user ownership ofthe processes, as they saw the outputs answer- group awareness and concem; ii) opportunities to market ing real life management questions. Having a clearer un- the Park and to provide incentives; iii) user group involve- derstanding of the different tools and how they fit together ment in management; iv) management of the Park as a was very pertinent to them (e.g., economic valuation tech- community resource; and, v) intersectoral coordination niques to determine the inherent value of the coral reef among user groups (Chapter 11). The synergy of this in- resource under threat, and then using the model to iden- formation will assist Montego Bay Marine Park to max- tify the relative costs and benefits of a range of options imize the socio-economic benefits of reef use through that then helps to determine a logical sequence of miti- effective management. gation measures). It then became clear that safeguarding Given the diversity of the stakeholders, the objectives the structure and function of the coral reefs would result of the Montego Bay Marine Park are to allow multiple, in an increased flow of benefits from greater protection. sustainable levels of activities, including fishing. Some This applied research tries to shed light on two main misunderstandings are bound to occur, with some of the questions. First, "If acres of healthy coral reef at a future fishers, hoteliers, and water sports operators lacking trust time is the objective, where do we get the biggest bang for in the equity of Park management's solutions. In the ear- the buck?" Conventional economic procedures for model- lier years of the Park, misunderstandings produced low ing cost-effectiveness can, unfortunately, result in sub- levels of compliance with regulations and management optimal policy choices when applied to complex systems directives. The result was waning support. With the popu- such as coral reefs. In Montego Bay, up to a 20% increase lation of Montego Bay projected to double in the next 20 in coral abundance may be achievable through using ap- years, demand will press on marine resources, augment- propriate policy measures having a present value cost of ing rival behavior of the users, animosity and conflict. vi Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling The applied research indicates that, to improve aware- study of a coral reef off the coast of Oman to look for new ness, park education programs should be targeted specifi- molecules with possible antibiotic and cancer treatment cally to the user groups primarily through outreach pro- uses. Since cancer does not occur in fish, scientists look grams. Further, the Park's management programs should for anti-tumoral agents in marine organisms, and are re- be highlighted, particularly the beneficial, tangible prod- searching chemical defense systems in sponges. Between ucts and services (benefits) the Park provides to each user 1963 and 1995, 63 marine substances with anti-tumoral group (e.g., training for fishers, mooring systems for wa- properties were patented worldwide. On previous expe- ter sports operators). The closer the tie between reef con- ditions Ardoukoba scientists have found sponges with anti- ditions and business earnings, the greater the users' sup- bacterial and anti-fungal properties. A mission to Mo- port for reef conservation. zambique produced substances which turned out to be The research highlighted economic and social ben- effective in fighting herpes and HIV, the virus causing efits, and thereby helped create among user groups an AIDS (Source Greenwire, November 27, 1999). Jamai- awareness of Park benefits that may not have been imme- can organizations offering these types of material would diately apparent to them. give Jamaica a clear competitive advantage over other For example, the tourism business in the area depends countries. to a large extent on Montego Bay maintaining an image Overall, we call for greater emphasis on the following: of a near pristine marine environment with a biologically . Socio-economic concerns and clarification ofproperty diverse and healthy coral reef environment. However, rights, involving the promotion of practical local man- although the economic health of the accommodations sec- agement regimes that involve affected stakeholders in tor directly depends on tourism, the direct link between the resource base; the marine environmental conditions and business activ- - Institutional strengthening to participate in potential ity is not necessarily perceived by owners and managers. bioprospecting benefits; and, Consequently, business and management decisions rarely Ecosystem analysis, focusing on functional linkages and consider the potential impacts of decisions on the reefs. relationships and protection of critical ecosystems. The coral reefs of Montego Bay are a common pool of resources managed under a regime of open access. The The research is relevant to ongoing and, particularly, restrictions that have been put in place with the intent of future World Bank operations. To date in the World Bank, preventing or curtailing the use by some groups have been there has been little lending specifically for integrated ineffectively enforced (e.g., the ban on spear fishing), coastal zone and coral reef management. Two notable while there are no restrictions on use by other groups (e.g. exceptions are the Coral Reef Rehabilitation and Man- agement Project (COREMIAP) in Indonesia, which estab- diving and snorkeling). The user groups are generally lghes vie,peat(ional )initionalicoralree aware of the severe decline in the reef conditions, yet under lishes viable, operational, and institutionalized coral reef the current management environment, it is unrealistic to management areas in priority reef sites, and the Meso- expect the users to curtail or alter their use patterns. To American Coral Reef Initiative, which is encouraging do so would cause an associated loss in short-term ben- dialogue onbetterreefmanagementbetween Mexico and efits or additional incurred costs, and would be seen as a Central American countries. The World Bank's role in sacrifice for the benefit of others. these projects is expected to increase in the future, and it The challenge is to shift from an open access regime is currently assisting several countries in designing coastal to a management regime. The objective is to provide sus- zone related projects. Also, the Global Environment Fa- tainable benefits perceived as fair to all users. Assigning cility (GEF), for which the World Bank is an implementing individual rights, thereby restricting access and creating agency, is interested in developing projects to manage and incentives is being explored with the hope of establishing protect biodiversity, such as that found in coral reefs. We and enforcing fishery priority areas and diving priority conclude that better integration of ICZM requires: areas. Zoning is also pertinent in the area of genetic * Building consensus on national coastal management resources. Processed marine biological products (chemi- priorities; cals, enzymes and genes) are prized by the pharmaceu- * Supporting innovative local initiatives such as the tical industry because of their complex structures and Montego Bay Marine Park; novel biological activities (Chapter 12). - Developing quantifiable indicators of change in the An example of bioprospecting in action is in Oman, coastal zone; and, where in November 1999 an international team of scien- . Strengthening institutional capacity and partnerships in tists in conjunction with a local university undertook a the form of international maritime agreements. Foreword vii The research has been supported by the World Bank Research Committee, Knowledge Management (KM), and Dutch and Canada trust funds, and may be found on the BIONODE and Water Resources websites. Work will continue in the form of a dissemination strategy that has four facets (Chapter 13): * Launch a road show to disseminate this publication that includes a CD-ROM of the Coral-Curaqao, Coral- Maldives, COCOMO (COastal COnservation in MOntego Bay) decision support models (Chapter 10); * Continue workshops supported by Knowledge Manage- ment, of which dozens have been held at the national and local level; * Create interactive programs on the World Bank Knowl- edge Management web sites (BIONODE and Water Re- sources) and other websites; and, * Assist the Montego Bay Marine Park Trust in the prepa- ration of a regional replicable project entitled ReefFix (Chapter 2). Richard M. Huber The World Bank, Environmentally and Socially Sustainable Development Sector Management Unit, Latin America and the Caribbean Region (LCSES) i ~~~~~~~~~~~ E E ,~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~' ffla~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~B-~ Acknowledgments Preparation of the report relied extensively on a series of Kansas); John Bythell (Department of Marine Sciences background and related papers initiated in early 1995, as and Coastal Management, University of Newcastle upon well as on helpful consultations and insights that were Tyne); Susan Clark (Department of Marine Sciences and received from a series of workshops in the three case study Coastal Management, University of Newcastle upon sites (Montego Bay, Jamaica; Curacao; the Republic of Tyne); Evelyn Cox (Hawaii Institute of Marine Biology); the Maldives) involving World Bank staff, government Sally Driml (Australia Great Barrier Reef Marine Park officials and representatives from the private and academic Authority); Alastair Edwards (Department of Marine Sci- sector and non-government organizations (NGOs). The ences and Coastal Management, University of Newcastle research was supported by the World Bank Research Com- upon Tyne); Richard Grigg (Department of Oceanography, mittee and Sweden, Canada and Netherlands Trust Funds. University of Hawaii), Tor Hundloe (Australia Great Bar- Project management was provided by Richard M Huber rier Reef Marine Park Authority); Donald Kinsey (Aus- of the World Bank, Environmentally and Socially Sus- tralian Institute of Marine Biology, ret.); James Maragos tainable Development Sector Department (ESSD), Latin (US Fish and Wildlife Service, Pacific Islands Ecoregion); America and the Caribbean Region (LCSES). Marea Subodh Mathur (consultant); Erik Meesters (Departrnent Hatziolos, Jan Post, Carl Lundin and Herman Cesar of of Marine Ecology, Netherlands Institute of Sea Research); the World Bank provided peer review of the publication. Mike Nullet (Department of Geography, University of The World Bank ESSD acting Director is John Redwood. Hawaii at Manoa); Stephen V Smith (Department of Ocea- Many individuals made important contributions to nography, University of Hawaii); Tim Swanson (Depart- the work as presented in the individual chapters and to ment of Economics, University College London); Gordon research in earlier phases of projects. Creating the mod- Tribble (US Geological Survey). Within Resource Analy- els required a true team effort. For the Montego Bay study sis, Christiane Kl6ditz, Diederik Waardenburg and Saskia site, Kirk Taylor and Jill Williams of the Montego Bay Wemers provided key assistance. Within the World Bank, Marine Park Trust helped coordinate the efforts. In the the following are noted for their contributions: Herman Republic of the Maldives, Mohammed Kahleel, Simad Cesar; John Dixon; Maria Donoso Clark; Clara Else; Saeed and Azima Shakoor of the Ministry of Population, Surajit Goswami; Marea Hatziolos; Norman Hicks; Andy Human Resources and Environment acted as government Hooten; Orsalia Kalantzopoulos; Maritta RVB Koch- contacts and provided coordination. In Curacao, the Min- Weser; Andres Liebenthal; Carl Lundin; Dennis Mahar; istry of Public Health and Environment of the Nether- Jan Post; John Redwood; Carlo Rietveld; Robert Watson; lands Antilles served this function. Jeffrey Sybesma Samuel Wedderbum; Anthony Whitten; and Tom Wiens. (VOMIL), Leon Pors (Curacao Underwater Park) and Any opinions or conclusions expressed herein are those Imma Curiel (University of the Netherlands Antilles) were of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the position also exceptionally helpful. of the World Bank or its afiliated agencies. Many others assisted in working through the method- ological and analytical issues that arose during the devel- Publication Production and Photographs opment of the models or provided review and comment on selected components of project work: Neil Adger Typesetting and technical services were provided by (Centre for Social and Economic Research on the Global Diane Braithwaite and Ken Josephson of Technical Serv- Environment); Mahfuzuddin Ahmed (International Cen- ices, Department of Geography, University of Victoria in ter for Living Aquatic Resources Management); Anthony Victoria, British Columbia, Canada. All of the photo- Artuso (Food and Resource Economics, Cook College, graphs that appear in this publication, with the exception Rutgers University); Marlin Atkinson (Hawaii Institute of the aerial photographs of Chapter 1, were selected from of Marine Biology); Rolf Bak (Department of Marine an exhibition of more than 120 photographs held at the Ecology, Netherlands Institute of Sea Research); Barbara Montego Bay Marine Park Resource Centre during the Brown (Department of Marine Sciences and Coastal Man- summer of 1999. The photographs appear here with the agement, University of Newcastle upon Tyne); Robert permission of the photographers and the Montego Bay Buddemeier (Kansas Geological Survey, University of Marine Park Trust. The photographers include Hannie x Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling and Theo Smit, Terry Silsbury, and Janos Bayer. In addi- Key to Photographs tion, Dean Salmon and Salmon's Photo Studios in Montego Cover: Flamingo tongued snail and common Bay provided necessary processing of the images. The Caribbean sea fan, photographed by use of these photographs would not be possible without Theo Smit. the contributions made by all of these individuals. Page iii: Fishing boats on beach at White Hannie and Theo Smit are long-term residents of Mon- House, photographed by Janos Bayer. tego Bay, dive-masters, and owners of Poseidon Divers Page viii, top: Canterbury housing settlement, in Montego Bay. They are renown as the diving experts photographed by Janos Bayer. of Jamaica and recently authored The Diving Guide to Page viii, bottom: Fire coral, photographed by Theo Smit. Jamaica published by Lonely Planet. Theo Smit is a Page xiv, top: Fishing boat in mangroves at White founding director and still active on the board of the House, photographed by Janos Bayer. Montego Bay Marine Park Trust. His early writings and Page xiv, bottom: Soft coral, sponges and other corals, lobbying efforts in the 1 980s were largely responsible for photographed by Theo Smit. the creation of the Montego Bay Marine Park in 1992. Page 46, top: Yellow tailed jacks, photographed by Terry Silsbury, a native of Toronto, Canada, has been Terry Silsbury. diving in Montego Bay twice yearly for over 20 years and Page 46, bottom: Fishing boats on River Bay fishing has seen many changes for the worse and the better in beach, photographed by Janos Bayer. that time. His keen observations and spectacular photo- Page 156, top: Brain coral and Christams tree tube graphs have been a source of encouragement for park worms, photographed by Theo Smit. management in recent years as improvements have begun Page 156, bottom: Fishing boat at Flankers canal, to be noticed. photographed by Janos Bayer. Janos Bayer is a long-term resident of Jamaica. He is Page 205, top: The North Gully, photographed by an architect, town planner and environmental engineer, Janos Bayer. but his poignant impressions of life in Jamaica have been Page 205, bottom: Anemone and shrimp, photographed exhibited worldwide and won numerous awards. by Hannie Smit. Contents I: THE NEED FOR DECISION SUPPORT MODELS Chapter 1 Integrated Coastal Zone Management in the Tropical Americas and the Role of Decision Support Models ................. ............................................. 3 Richard M Huber and Stephen C Jameson Box 1.1. Environmental monitoring data as a basis for management decisions: The Montego Bay case study ............................. ................................. 14 Bernward Hay Box 1.2. A successful ICZM case study achieving rapid results .................. ..................... 21 Chapter 2 Local Needs and Interventions for Management of Coral Reefs in the Developing Tropical Americas-The Montego Bay Marine Park Case Study .................... 23 Stephen C Jameson and Jill Williams II: CREATING DECISION SUPPORT MODELS Chapter 3 Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Coral Reef Management and Protection: A Case Study of Curacao ............................ 49 Frank Rijsbernan and Susie Westmacott Chapter 4 Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Coral Reef Management and Protection: A Case Study of the Republic of the Maldives .67 Susie Westmacott and Frank Rijsberman Chapter 5 Values Associated with the Local Use of the Montego Bay Marine Park .83 Kent Gustavson Chapter 6 Lexicographic Preferences and the Contingent Valuation of Coral Reef Biodiversity in Curacao and Jamaica .97 Clive L Spash, Jasper D van der Werff ten Bosch, Susie Westmacott and Jack Ruitenbeek Chapter 7 Montego Bay Pharmaceutical Bioprospecting Valuation .119 Cynthia Cartier and Jack Ruitenbeek Chapter 8 Interventions for Coral Reef Conservation-A Least Cost Model .129 Jack Ruitenbeek, Mark Ridgley, Steve Dollar and Richard M Huber Box 8.1. An informal introduction to fuzzy modeling .137 Chapter 9 Integration of the Models for Decision Support in Jamaica .149 Jack Ruitenbeek Chapter 10 Development of the User Interface- Coral-Curacao, Coral-Maldives, and COCOMO .153 Christiane Kl6ditz, Frank Rij sberman, Saskia Wemers and Susie Westmacott xii Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling III: THE CONTEXT FOR POLICY APPLICATIONS AND FUTURE DIRECTIONS Chapter 11 The Social Context for Local Management in Jamaica ..................................................... 159 Leah Bunce and Kent Gustavson Chapter 12 Incorporating Genetic Resource Utilization into ICZM- Policies and Institutions in Jamaica ................................................................. 175 Daniel Putterman Box 12.1. Basic components of genetic resource material transfer agreements ............... 185 Box 12.2. Minimal information necessary for prior informed consent decisions ............ 189 Chapter 13 Ecological Economic Decision Support Models for Coastal Zone Management in the Developing Tropics- Results, Dissemination, Policy Applications, and Future Directions ............ ................... 195 Kent Gustavson and Richard M Huber Annex A Review of the Empirical Biodiversity Literature .............................................................. 207 Cynthia Cartier and Jack Ruitenbeek Box A. 1. Biodiveristy production, utility and rent valuation measures ........... ................. 208 Box A.2. Success rate determinants in pharmaceutical bioprospecting ........... ................ 228 Annex B Contingent Valuation as a Means of Valuing the Conservation of Coral Reefs: An Assessment of the Method ........................................................ 241 Nick Hanley Annex C R6sultats des Recherches sur les Modeles de Soutien et Orientations Futures ......... ........ 247 Kesurn redige par Kent Gustavson et Richard M Huber Annex D Modelos de Apoyo a las Decisiones Ecol6gico-Econ6micas para la Gesti6n Integral de los Arrecifes de Coral en los Tr6picos en Vias de Desarrollo- Resultados de Investigaciones y Orientaciones para el Futuro .......................................... 259 Resumen preparado por Kent Gustavson y Richard M Huber References ........................................................................................................................................... .271 List of Contributors .291 -~~~~~~~~~~~' w- 115:~~~~~~~~,~-w~ ! ti~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ w3s3~~~~~~~~` I: THE NEED FOR DECISION SUPPORT MODELS Chapter 1 Integrated Coastal Zone Management in the Tropical Americas and the Role of Decision Support Models Richard M Huber Environmentally and Socially Sustainable Development Sector Management Unit, Latin American and Caribbean Region (LCSES), The World Bank, Washington, DC, USA Stephen C Jameson Coral Seas Inc. - Integrated Coastal Zone Management, The Plains, VA, USA Coral reef ecosystems are under increasing pressure, the petition for limited marine resources results in the adop- threats being primarily from human activities. In some tion of destructive fishing methods. Technologies allow cases, natural disturbances further compound the effects humans to exploit the reef with mechanical dredges, hy- of anthropogenic stress. The declining state of coral reef draulic suction, dynamiting, and poisoning. Some of the ecosystems has sparked concem by scientists, managers major causes of localized coral reef ecosystem decline and government officials. The 1991 National Science include: Foundation, Environmental Protection Agency and Na- - The overexploitation ofreefresources (fish stocks have tional Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration sponsored declined significantly in many reef areas, especially near workshop on coral bleaching, coral reef ecosystems and centers of human population); global climate change (D'Elia et al. 1991), the Seventh * Excessive domestic and agricultural pollution; and, Intemational Coral Reef Symposium in 1992 (Richmond 1993), and the meeting of experts on "Global Aspects of * Poor land use practices that increase the amount of Coral Reefs: Health, Hazards and History" held at the sediment enterng the coastal environment. Rosentiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science in Results of the 1997 and 1998 Global Coral Reef Moni- Miami (Ginsburg 1994) all stressed these concems. The toring Network/Reef Check surveys showed that most of IUCN (1993) estimated that about 10% of tropical coral the world's reef-building "corals" are in good to excellent reefs have already been degraded beyond recovery and condition, because they are either remote from human popu- another 30% are likely to decline significantly within the lations, or they are under good management, such as the next 20 years. An Intemational Coral Reef Initiative re- Great Barrier Reef (Wilkenson 1998). Reef Check 1997 port (Jameson et al. 1995) stressed that unless effective surveys, from over 300 reefs in 31 countries, foundthatthe integrated coastal zone management is implemented, more mean percentage of living coral cover on reefs was 31% than two-thirds of the world's coral reefs may become world-wide; the Caribbean had the lowest percentage at seriously depleted of corals and associated biota within 22%, "possibly reflecting losses due to bleaching and two generations. disease" (Reef Check 1997). However, 1997 Reef Check The coral reef ecosystems at greatest risk are in South surveys indicated that few "coral reefs" were unaffected and Southeast Asia, East Africa, and the Caribbean; how- by human activities, even in very remote sites, because over- ever, people have damaged or destroyed reefs in more than fishing has reduced high-value indicator organisms such 93 countries (Jameson et al. 1995). Rapid population as lobster, sharks and grouper to low levels at most reefs, growth and migration to coastal areas, where coral reef including some with marine protected areas (Hodgson ecosystems occur, exacerbate the problem. The resulting 1998). Surveys also showed that management in most ma- coastal congestion leads to increased coastal pollution and rine parks is failing to stop the loss of high-value, edible problems related to coastal construction. Increasing com- species, and that greater attention is needed to improve 3 4 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling management. The ecological balance in many ofthe world's The potential sustainable yield of fishes, crustaceans best reefs has been altered by the removal of high-value and molluscs from coral reefs could be some 9,000,000t organisms (Wilkenson 1998). In 1998, over 40 countries (12% of the world fisheries catch; IUCN 1993). At the participated in the second annual Reef Check survey, and present time, only a fraction of this potential yield is real- results showed that extensive bleaching and mortality of ized. More important than the actual monetary values corals has occurred in parallel with the massive 1997/1998 associated with the fisheries, people more widely benefit El Nifo event. Mortality on a scale never previously re- from reef use as a major source of income and employ- ported is occurring, including some corals that have previ- ment in regions where often few employment altematives ously survived for centuries (Hodgson 1998). exist. Tourism and the recreational use of reefs on a large- A recent estimate by the World Resources Institute, scale are recent developments. using map-based indicators, suggested that as many as Numerous figures are available describing tourist rev- 58% of the world's reefs are threatened by human activity enue derived from coral reefs, but few are clearly defined (Bryant et al. 1998). Approximately 10% of the world's or comparable. The coral reefs of Florida alone have reefs have been severely damaged or destroyed by being been estimated to generate US$1.6 billion annually from mined for sand and rock, reclaimed for development (par- recreation uses (USDOC 1994). Figures for developing ticularly for airports), or buried under sediment washing countries are better expressed in other ways. For many into the sea from inappropriate land use (Wilkenson 1998). Caribbean countries, tourism is now the key economic Based on current global climate change and popula- sector, often providing over 50% of GNP, and growing tion trends, Kleypas et al. (1999) and Buddemeier (1999) quickly (Jameson et al. 1995). In 1990, Caribbean tour- predict that, on a large scale within the next few decades, ism eamed US$8.9 billion and employed over 350,000 coral reefs will continue to die because of rising human people (Holder 1991). Divers and other special interest population levels, rising temperatures, rising atmospheric/ tourists may account for one-fifth or more of this total. surface ocean CO2 levels, and other local aspects of glo- A 1981 Island Resources Foundation cost-benefit study bal climate change. of the Virgin Islands National Park found that the ben- efits associated with reef use (US$23.3 million, of which US$20.0 million was indirect) were more than ten times Benefits of Coral Reefs larger than the costs (US$2.1 million), clearly showing the economic benefits of a marine protected area (Dixon Millions of people depend on reefs for a source of food 1993). In Thailand, some 5,000 small boat and dive shop and livelihood. Reefs also create sheltered lagoons and operations are dependent on reef tourism (Spencer Davies protect coastlines and mangroves against wave damage. and Brown 1992). Mangroves in turn protect reefs from sedimentation and Collecting aquarium fishes and live corals for Euro- eutrophication. Mangroves and seagrasses also play an pean and North American markets has developed into important role in coastal protection and provide spawn- another lucrative, but sometimes destructive, industry. ing and nursery areas for reef and offshore fishes. The Harvesting methods often kill organisms not intended economies of many atoll nations are primarily based on for collection and many of the fish collected may die marine resources. In the Pacific, over 2.5 million people before reaching markets. Tourism can be an environ- live on islands built by, or surrounded by, coral reef eco- mentally friendly way of generating income from coral systems. In Hawaii, coral reefs are central to a US$700 reef ecosystems, but only when resort development and million marine recreation industry. Reef fish, lobsters, operations are carefully controlled. Unlimited collect- and bottom fish generate approximately US$20 million ing, sport fishing, and accidental damage by waders, in landings annually and are an important source of food swimmers and boat anchors can all degrade the reefs that for local people and for restaurant consumption (Grigg earn tourist dollars. Allowing sewage and other wastes 1997). Diving brings US$148.6 million annually to Guam from tourist facilities to pollute reefs, or siting resorts (Birkeland 1997). Over 300,000 people live on coral is- such that beach erosion increases, can be even more de- lands in the Indian Ocean and many more in the Carib- grading to the health of the reefs than the direct damage bean. Coral reefs provide 10% to 12% of the harvest of caused by individuals. Degradation of coral reef ecosys- finfish and shellfish in tropical countries and 20% to 25% tems would have significant negative impacts on world of the fish catch of developing countries. As much as food sources, long-term negative economic impacts on 90% of the animal protein consumed on many Pacific is- fishery and tourist industries, and devastating social and lands comes from marine sources (IUCN 1993). economic impacts on millions of people around the world Integrated Coastal Zone Management in the TropicalAmericas and the Role of Decision Support Models 5 for whom coral reefs represent the primary source of "quick fix". Hughes' (1994) conclusion that a ban on livelihood. fish traps is needed to save Jamaican reefs is extremely important, but unfortunately implies to managers that the The North Coast of Jamaica Perspective effects of eutrophication are relatively minor. Other points made by LaPointe et al. (1997) that have In the most frequently cited work on the status of Jamaica important management implications for other reef loca- north coast coral reefs, Hughes (1994) attributes the decline tions on the north coast of Jamaica, and throughout the in coral cover (from more than 50% in the late 1970s to world, include the following: less than 5% in 1993) and the increase in macroalgal cover . The dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) and soluble re- (representing a "phase shift" in the community) to the active phosphorus (SRP) concentrations at Discovery combined effects of overfishing, hurricane damage, and Bay measured during this study rank among the high- disease. He further states that "there is no evidence that est concentrations reported for coral reefs anywhere in the nation-wide algal bloom in Jamaica was caused by the world and explain why such impressive macroalgal increased nutrients, because it occurred throughout the biomass now dominates this eutrophic reef system. Caribbean immediately following Diadema antillarum [sea * The potential eutrophication at Discovery Bay was docu- urchin] die-off, usually far from sources ofpollution", and mented by widespread groundwater inputs of nitrate that there is "an urgent need to control overfishing" (NO3-) in conjunction with predictions of increased SRP (Hughes 1994). However, there is considerable evidence enrichment associated with exponential human popu- (Huges 194) Howver thee ISconlderbleevldnce lation growth and sewage pollution. that eutrophication, by itself, can lead to a reduction in reef fish populations (Johannes 1975)..Thus, itisunlikely * NO- and SRP concentrations reported by D'Elia et al. reef fsputo(one15Th,(1981) for back-reef habitats already exceeded critical that simply controlling fishing practices will restore nutrient thresholds for eutrophication, explaining why Jamaica's reefs, or other coral reefs being impacted by macroalgal blooms began expanding in the early 1980s severe eutrophication. More importantly, the reality of throughout back-reef communities prior to the die-off large-scale coastal eutrophication needs to be vigorously of Diadema antillarum in 1983. confronted by scientists and managers alike, both in . Near-shore groundwater data from Lapointe et al. Jamaica and world-wide. (1997) and D'Elia et al. (1981) suggest that nutrient concentrations increased in the back-reef during the Discovery Bay 1980s and spatially spread offshore, elevating DIN and LaPointe et al. (1997), using 1987 data (i.e., nutrient en- SRP levels on the fore-reef above critical thresholds. richment bioassays, alkaline phosphatase assays, water- * The significant NO3- levels and concomitant salinity column nutrient determinations, indicator species, biotic stratification throughout the study area at Discovery Bay cover and tissue nitrogen levels) from when reef commu- shows that nutrients derived from submarine ground- nities were undergoing a phase shift from coral to macro- water discharges and springs along the shore are trans- algal dominance, challenged Hughes' (1994) assumptions ported offshore as buoyant plumes. concerning the role of nutrient enrichment by showing * In addition to offshore nitrogen dispersion via buoyant that it was, in fact, an important synergistic factor respon- surface plumes, low salinity, high NO; pore waters have sible for the increased growthratesandstandingcropo been found (Pigott and Land 1986) in fore-reef sedi- sible for the icreased growth rates and standing crop of ments at Discovery Bay, suggesting that NO3 -rich macroalgae on reefs at Discovery Bay. This finding of- groundwater is seeping through the fore-reef itself and fers an additional dimension of complexity and robust- clearly showing that extensive areas of the Discovery ness towards fully understanding the phase shift. Bay fringing reefs to depths of at least 24m are being LaPointe et al. (1997) affirms the need to adopt broad affected by groundwater DIN enrichment. theoretical approaches to testing management related . DIN and SRP concentrations throughout the back-reef hypotheses regarding the degradation of coral reefs. He had been above critical thresholds for over a decade be- warns that scientists should guard against preconceived fore Hurricane Allen struck in 1980, causing severe dam- concepts, research designed to verify rather than falsify age to the reef and the luxuriant stands of elkhorn coral. hypotheses, and narrow approaches that do not test mul- The reduction of upright corals to rubble, at a time when tiple hypotheses, which can all lead to the acceptance of nutrient concentrations were above critical thresholds, tverip plif hypotheses,.wc cn lea the acceptac fof allowed the faster developing macroalgae to physically oversimplified hypotheses. While this is unhealthy for out-compete the corals and turf algae. Eutrophication science in general, it can be especially devastating for coral not only increases the biomass of macroalgae, but also reef conservation, especially in light of bureaucrats and reduces the reproductive capacity of hermatypic reef resource managers often looking for a politically expedient corals and inhibits coral larval settlement and survival. 6 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling All of these factors, driven by eutrophication processes, in the study). Pooled data from all sites sampled in Mon- provide a more robust explanation for the replacement tego Bay by Sullivan and Chiappone (1994) and Williams of corals by macroalgae on reefs at Discovery Bay. and Polunin (1999) shows that, from 1992 to 1997, algae * Other evidence moderating the "top-down" interpre- cover (all types) increased from 36% to 84%. tation of Hughes (1994) includes the fact that fish The big challenge for Montego Bay Marine Park will populations on the deep fore-reef (below 1 Sm) were be to reverse the aforementioned phase shift. Effectively overfished through intensive use of fish traps in the 1960s (Munro 1983), long before the widespread and dealing with the nutrient rich secondary treated effluent massive blooms of Sargassumpolyceratium developed that will be discharged into the Park by the new sewage on the reefs in the late 1980s. Furthermore, the mass treatment plant is top priority (unfortunately, only human mortality of Diadema antillarum occurred in 1983, health concems, not coral reef health, were considered years prior to the expansion of Chaetomorphia linum when the new facility was designed). A deep ocean outfall and Sargassum polyceratium from restricted areas taking the effluent nutrients away from the coral reefs or around grottos in the back-reef onto the fore-reef artificial wetlands that remove the nutrients before dis- Hence, there is inconsistency in the timeline between charge into the bay are viable options Identifying and reduced herbivory from overfishing and massive macro- chargetintothe bay e viable opon.dtifying and algal overgrowth in both shallow and deep habitats. mitigating otherland-based sources of pollution will also These observations further reinforce the conclusion that be of the utmost importance. Restoring the herbivorous reduced herbivory could not have been the only factor fish population and the critically important macroalgae causing the massive macroalgal blooms that developed grazing sea urchin population (Woodley 1999; Woodley on reefs at Discovery Bay. et al. 1999) will also be a vital part of the restoration • The locations of most of the macroalgal dominated process required to bring this valuable ecosystem back habitats cited by Hughes (1994) suggest large-scale into balance (see Chapter 2). non-point-source nutrient loading associated with deforestation, sewage, and agricultural and industrial Negril development. All of these sources increased in promi- Recent water quality research off Negril (LaPointe 1999), nence along Jamaica's coast over the past decades and, hypothetically, contributed to nutrient over-enrichment, using radioisotope techniques, shows that the reefs are, giving rise to the macroalgal blooms that now domi- on average, above the nitrogen threshold for macroalgal nate these degraded coral reefs. blooms. The nitrogen was high year round on both deep and shallow reefs, whereas phosphorus concentrations Montego Bay significantly increased in rivers, streams and groundwaters Sullivan and Chiappone (1994), in their rapid ecological within the watershed and throughout the entire Negril assessment of Montego Bay, consider nutrient loading and Marine Park. The nitrogen concentration is always high eutrophication, water quality and circulation changes, and in the Park because it is consistently being transported mechanical damage as the three most serious threats to and discharged through groundwater into the marine en- the coral reef ecosystem within the Montego Bay Marine vironment. Salinity data from Sands Club showed that Park. Jameson (1997), Hitchman (1997) and USAID fresh water from groundwater discharges is affecting reefs (1996) also show nutrient levels above threshold values several kilometres from shore. Video surveys show that for coral reef ecosystems. Box 1.1 describes an environ- macroalgal blooms on deep and shallow reefs had distinct mental monitoring program conducted for Montego Bay compositions. Halimeda, a calcareous algae, dominated that was funded by the patron of the new sewage treat- deep reefs off Green Island and Little Bay, compared to ment plant. shallow reefs that were dominated by fleshy macroalgae, Williams and Polunin (1999) discovered that Jamaica such as Sargassum, Dictyota, Cladophora, and Chaeto- (Montego Bay and Negril sites) had the lowest abundance morphia. Rainfall and nutrient data indicated that the ofherbivorous fishes, the highest coverage of macroalgae massive blooms of Chaetomorpha on the shallow reefs (70.5% for Montego Bay and 66.15% for Negril) and the of Orange Bay were initiated by phosphorus enrichment, lowest coverage of grazed substratum (turf, bare and crus- apparently linked to "soak aways" (cesspits) on the adja- tose coralline surfaces) of 19 reefs surveyed throughout cent watershed, as well as possibly other sources such as the Caribbean. Except for Jamaica, the abundance of her- fertilizers. The radioisotope monitoring data revealed that bivorous fishes was broadly similar on most of the other the nitrogen ratio in macroalgae at Davis Cove, North 19 reefs. There was a six-fold difference (2.7g/M2 vs. Negril, Long Bay and Little Bay were linked to sugar- 17. Ig/m2) in the concentration of herbivorous fishes cane fertilizers, in comparison to macroalgae in South between Jamaica and Barbados (the highest abundance Negril and to a lesser extent Ironshore, where they were Integrated Coastal Zone Management in the TropicalAmericas and the Role of Decision Support Models 7 found to be associated with sewage nitrogen. The water- A project which is specifically designed to provide shed monitoring data illustrated how different land uses centralized access to information from these and other enrich the rivers and streams in the area. In the low salin- coral reef programs is ReefBase: the International Da- ity areas where there are fresh water inputs, there were tabase on Coral Reefs (McManus andAblan 1997). This higher levels of nitrogen and phosphorus. All data con- project of the International Center for Living Aquatic sistently showed that salinity was inversely correlated with Resources Management (ICLARM) seeks to gather a nitrogen and phosphorus, showing the importance of en- broad range of information about the status of the world's richment to nutrient delivery on downstream reefs. Both reefs from papers, reports and inputs from monitoring phosphorus and nitrogen concentrations on the Davis Cove projects. The project includes an activity of the World sub-watershed were significantly higher around cane- Conservation Monitoring Center (WCMC) to digitize fields, showing the nutrient enrichment associated with maps of coral reefs and to make them available through fertilizers on canefields in the Davis River that flows out the database. The ReefBase project serves as a medium to the reef. In the South Negril River sub-watershed, the of information exchange for scientists, particularly those high phosphorus concentrations in the estuarine portion in developing countries with limited library facilities, of this study area are linked to the considerable sewage and as a conduit of usefuil information to coastal plan- inputs from "soak away" pits, squatter communities with- ners and managers. out sanitary conveniences, inadequately treated sewage The Land-Ocean Interactions in the Coastal Zone outfalls, and livestock on the river bank. (LOICZ) project of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) is looking at the role of coastal pro- cesses in global climate change. The crucial role of CO2 The Monitoring of Coral Reefs and other gases in the calcification process of reef-build- ing corals is of critical importance with the increasing CO2 Information for accurately evaluating the condition of the levels associated with global warming. They stress the world's reefs is critical for effective management. In many need to better understand coral reef systems, with various cases, however, this knowledge is lacking. Many coun- scales and perspectives, especially with respect to survival, tries with coral reef ecosystems need training and capac- adaptation and acclimatization (Buddemeier 1999). They ity building to apply scientific management principles. also stress the need to better understand human impacts Non-governmental organizations (NGOs) have played on reef functions, the responses of reefs to changes in sea and will continue to play a significant role in coral reef level, and the interactions between coral reefs and other ecosystem conservation. As most countries have not in- ecosystems. In particular, more needs to be known about corporated integrated coastal zone management (ICZM), interactions with adjacent land masses, such as through economic and environmental decision-making has not the hydrological cycle. LOICZ is also concemed that ris- been fully integrated for the protection and sustainable ing sea levels would have very serious consequences for use of coral reef ecosystems. However, global and regional many nations situated on low coral reef archipelagos, such coral reef programs have developed (Table 1.1). as the Republic of the Maldives. Table 1.1. Relevant partnerships involved with global or regional coral reef programs (source: derived from a database maintained by Anthony J. Hooten of the World Bank) Partnership or activity Region or country Specific activities Resources (million US$) Status Coral Bleaching and India, Kenya, Program will focus 1.1 over three years Approved Mortality in the Madagascar, on the ecological and (Sida! SAREC) (first meeting Central and Western Maldives, socio-economic effects January 1999) Indian Ocean Mozambique, of coral mortality in Seychelles, Sri coastal areas of eight Lanka, and Tanzania participating countries Coral Bleaching and Same as above Same as above 0.35 Approved Mortality in the Central (World Bank/ (first meeting and Western Indian Ocean Netherlands) January 1999) Table 1.1 continued overleaf 8 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling Table 1.1. continued Partnership or activity Region or country Specific activities Resources (million US$) Status World Bank/ GEF Comoros, Establishment of a 1.0 for Under preparation Indian Ocean Madagascar, long-term coral reef medium-sized (endorsement Commission/ Mauritius, monitoring program GEF project letter from all France - WIO Coral Reunion, and for the IOC countries countries) Reef Monitoring Seychelles Meso-American Belize, Guatemala, Regional program to 16.25 Under preparation Barrier Reef Honduras, and jointly manage and (began 1998) Initiative (MBRI) Mexico protect the world's second largest barrier reef International Coral World-wide, based A global effort to increase Unknown Secretariat Reef Initiative upon six regional capacity of regions and (some support transferred to (ICRI)/ Global nodes and the countries to monitor and from US State France for Coral Reef ICRI Secretariat manage coral reefs and Department, 1998 to 2000; Monitoring associated ecosystems Australia, and five of six regional Network (GCRMN) through ICZM and other France) nodes identified vehicles, with over 80 for the GCRMN participating countries International Coral World-wide (total A global effort to reverse 1.15 start-up Anticipated early Reef Action of eight regions) the trend of coral reef (United Nations 1999, pending Network (ICRAN) degradation by initiating Fund; four year proposal acceptance priority protective action action phase TBD) before the United in constituent countries, Nations Fund including model protected areas and coral reef management systems COREMAP Indonesia Indonesia Establishment of 33.1 phase one; Supported by the (supported by the management structures total of 263.1 World Bank, ADB, World Bank, ADB, in Indonesia, including over 15 years USAID, and and USAID) improved monitoring efforts Indonesia Infornation related to Caribbean basin Pilot to establish a 0.406 Underway (workshop the Caribbean Program (three pilot Caribbean monitoring held in 1998; for Adaptation to countries - program to measure effects monitoring to be Climate Change Bahamas, Belize, of climate change and established in 1999) (CPACC) - and Jamaica) anthropogenic impacts World Bank/ OAS Reefs At Risk - World World-wide Map-based indicator Unknown Global phase Resources Institute of threats to the (supported by completed; beginning (in collaboration with world's coral reefs WRI and ICLARM) regional assessments, ICLARM, WCMC, starting with the and UNEP) Philippines ReefBase World-wide Serves as a global Unknown Active database for coral reef (supported by related information, ICLARM) including the GCRMN Edited Monograph World-wide Text of coral reef Unknown Under development on Coral Reef economics with global (supported by (estimated completion Economics case histories Sida/ SAREC) late 1999) Integrated Coastal Zone Management in the Tropical Americas and the Role of Decision Support Models 9 Diagnostic Biological Monitoring- eration given the typical multiple pollution impacts Essential to Manage Coral Reef Ecosystems impinging on most reefs in the developing world (Ginsburg 1994). Coral reef monitoring programs have become ubiquitous The aim of any coral reef ecosystem assessment pro- over the course of the past two decades (Eakin et al. 1997; Risk~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 192) ragn'rmmntrn yidvda e gram is to distinguish relevant biological signals from rcsiskts992ranging tom tha oniutorin by lageindividual r noise caused by natural spatial and temporal variations. search scientists to that conducted by large institutions In choosing biological indicators, one should focus on like the Australian Institute of Marine Science, the CARI- attributes that are sensitive to the underlying condition of COMP (Caribbeani Coastal Marine Productivity) network interest (e.g., human influences) but insensitive to extra- or world-wide efforts such as the Global Coral Reef Moni- neous conditions. Paced with the dizzying number of toring Network. The scope of reef monitoring has re- cently expanded even further with the introduction of vaibls ditracs'npit, nrcse,mrn cently expanded even furtherwihtmanagers and researchers have periodically failed to monitoring programs specifically designed for volunteer choose those attributes that give the clearest signals of sport divers, such as the ReefBase Aquanaut and Reef human impact. The world's coral reef ecosystems have Check programs (Hodgson 1997; McManus et al. 1997). declined as a result. While these "state of the art" efforts have been very suc- cessful at what they were designed to do (i.e., document Status of Coral Reef Ecosystem Bioindicators change in coral reef ecosystems), they are, for the most Jameson et al. (1998) review the status of coral reef eco- part, not capable of predicting what is causing the changes. Because of the non-diagnostic nature of most coral syte biiniatr. Wihfwntbe xetos h reefmonitoringe progrdiamspolicy-makrer and governmnt c majority of these bioassays have not yet been fully devel- .oficlre notrel sqipeolco-ununisate t the pub- oped into usable monitoring protocols. In these respects, offiial ar notwel eqippd toconnuncateto he ub- coral reef bioindicators lag far behind freshwater and tem- lic or politicians the causes of coral reef resource decline coral rindicotorslg frbiresh and tem- perate marine biomonitoring programs, many of which or the appropriate solution for remediation. To protect have undergone extensive calibration and have been de- coral reef resources, we should track the biological con- . . .. coral reefresorcesweshoudtrcktebologcalon veloped into multi-metric indices of "biotic integrity" with dition of these ecosystems in a manner similar to the way well-defined interpretative frameworks (e.g., Davis and we track local and national economies or diagnose per- Simon 1995; Karr 1991; Karr and Chu 1999; Karr et al. sonal health-using calibrated indicators. Indicators that 1986; Kerans and Karr 1994; Lang etal. 1989; Lenat 1988; integrate the influence of all forms of degradation caused ' ' . 1 Rosenberg and Resh 1993; Wilson and Jeffrey 1994). by human actions can thus guide diagnostic, curative, Many of these indices result in the calculation of a simple restorative and preventive management actions, numerical "score" for a particular site, which can then be Importance of Bioindicators in compared over time or with other sites. Such rankings Coral Reef Ecosystem Assessment have an intuitive appeal to resource managers and users, Indicator organisms have a long history of use for detect- and can be an effective means of galvanizing political ing qualities about an environment that are otherwise dif- willpower towards pollution prevention and conservation ficult to perceive, from the well-known "canary in the coal activities. mine" to the highly successful "Musselwatch" program in North American bays (Soule 1988). Freshwater and Developing Biological Criteria for marine organisms have been used extensively as bioindi- Coral Reef Ecosystem Assessment cators since the 1970s (Phillips 1980). Biological criteria are narrative expressions or numerical The use of bioindicators has been justified in marine values that describe the "biological integrity" of aquatic pollution monitoring programs for at least three reasons communities inhabitating waters of a given designated (Maher and Norris 1990): aquatic life use (USEPA 1990a). Biological integrity is 1. They assess only those pollutants which are bioavail- the condition of the aquatic community inhabiting unim- able, ostensibly those which are most important; paired or minimally impaired water bodies of a specified 2. They can reveal biological effects at contaminant levels habitat as measured by community structure and func- below current chemical analytical detection limits (ei- tion (USEPA 1990b). ther due to chronic, low level pollution or short-term The first step towards effective biological monitoring pulses); and, and assessment is to realize that the goal is to measure 3. They can help assess synergistic or additive antagonistic and evaluate the consequences of human actions on bio- relationships among pollutants, an important consid- logical systems. The relevant measurement endpoint for 10 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Mlodeling biological monitoring is biological condition. Detecting Rehabilitation and management of conservation areas, change in that endpoint, comparing the change with a mm- revitalization of the tourism industry, and empowerment imally disturbed baseline condition, identifying the causes of local governments and communities to manage and ofthe change, and communicating these findings to policy- benefit from the sustainable use of natural resources, are makers and citizens are the tasks of biological monitor- now high priorities for the Caribbean countries as dem- ing programs. Understanding and communicating those onstrated by important policy and institutional reforms consequences to all members of the human community is already completed or underway. Montego Bay, Jamaica, perhaps the greatest challenge of modern ecology (Karr provides an excellent example. Responsibility for man- and Chu 1999). agement of the marine park has recently been transferred The use of multiple measures, or metrics, to develop from the Jamaican government to an NGO-the Montego biocriteria is a systematic process involving discrete steps Bay Marine Park Trust (the Trust). The Trust has an ex- (Jameson et al. 1998). The United States Environmental plicit policy of promoting community participation in Protection Agency recognizes the need and benefits of a management and the sharing of the benefits. biological criteria program for coral reef ecosystem as- Over a period of several years, the people of Montego sessment and is in the process of exploring the feasibility Bay have felt the repercussions of poor planning: of developing a program for coral reef ecosystems under . Serious resource depletion problems increasing pollu- United States jurisdiction (Jameson et al. 1998, 1999). tion of the inshore, coastal and ocean environment; The Need for Integrated * Loss or damage to productive coastal ecosystems, in- Coastal Zone Management creasing losses of life and property from coastal haz- ards and disasters; and, As stated in the introduction to this chapter, many ma- * Conflicts of interests among user groups. rine ecosystems in the tropics are deteriorating under They began to share a common vision, including a heavy pressure from human and economic activities. desire to increase the economic benefits flowing from About 10% of the world's reefs have already been de- the use of coastal zone resources and the exploration of graded beyond recognition, while another 60% are likely economic opportunities associated with new forms of to disappear in the next 10 to 40 years; the 30% that do development in the coastal zone. Solutions included im- not appear to be undergoing negative effects are those plementing a more participatory approach to planning in- in remote areas, essentially removed from the influences volving NGOs and community-based groups, developing of man. Lack of harmonized legislation between the institutional mechanisms for cross-sectoral cooperation, tropical islands (such as regional sand mining legisla- and the enforcement of and compliance with integrated tion), lack of appropriate policies (such as existing sub- policies, including the use of positive reinforcement and sidies for gasoline to artisanal fishers), lack of adequate incentives (see Chapters 2 and 11). There are examples protection mechanisms (such as designated marine pro- to which the Trust can turn that demonstrate the elements tected areas), lack of appropriate zoning (such as desig- of a successful ICZM strategy. Box 1.2 describes a case nated fishery priority areas), and lack of infrastructure study that provided rapid results in the United States. to support tourism (such as sewage and solid waste man- agement) have all caused marine resource deterioration, threatening the natural and cultural fabric of these vul- Torl Bonk andgInt nerable small island developing states. International tourism has been an important economic There is a growing interest, particularly among private element in the post-war period to the Caribbean. These sector hotel associations and environmental NGOs, in countries primarily draw on outstanding marine ecosys- adopting ICZM as a means of maintaining a balance be- tems attracting the "sun-sea-sand" clientele and the tween economic growth and the protection of valuable ecotourist, who is also attracted by cultural/ethno-histori- ecosystems. ICZM guides jointly the activities of two or cal phenomena such as pre-Colombian archaeological more sectors in the planning, development and im- sites, colonial architecture, and contemporary handicraft plementation of projects, instead of treating individual industries. Both types of tourists require distinct pack- sectors separately (e.g., sewage pollution and industrial ages and infrastructure, and both types have led to resource waste management). The World Bank has recently issued and cultural deterioration, coining the phrase "tourism guidelines for the use of ICZM (World Bank 1993a, 1996; destroys tourism". guidelines have also been developed for integrated water Integrated Coastal Zone Management in the TropicalAmericas and the Role of Decision Support Models 1 1 resources management for the environmental impact ineffective over the long-term. They must be strongly assessment of projects that might affect coastal eco- supported at scales ranging from the village to the nation, systems). and often at the regional scale as well. They must be ori- The definition of the coastal zone used for small is- ented towards the long-term sustainability of reef re- lands usually includes the island as a whole-that is, in- sources, and designed to be adaptive to different cultures cluding all watersheds that drain into the coastal zone. and governments, as well as changing situations, without Also, from an ecological perspective, the zone in which compromising effectiveness. freshwater and saltwater mix (i.e., estuaries, mangroves A world-wide system of marine protected areas should or lagoons) is usually very valuable. These gradient zones be established to encompass at least 20% of all reefs often have a very high level of biodiversity and produc- (Jameson et al. 1995; PDT 1990). This should include tivity. There are also many physical linkages between widely dispersed small reserves involving up to a few coastal and freshwater resources: tens of square kilometres, and several strategically located * Watershed management influences run-off and erosion, large reserves at the scale of hundreds or thousands of which affects water quality in the coastal zone (e.g., square kilometres. Ideally, these protected areas should non-point source pollution); form part of wider coastal zone planning initiatives en- * Groundwater exploitation in alluvial coastal plains that compassing the reef systems of entire countries and inte- lowers the groundwater table often increases saline seep- grating the needs of local peoples, commercial fisheries, age and infiltration; tourism, terrestrial construction and agriculture develop- * Wastewater management (e.g., treatment plants, ocean ment, and nature conservation. outfalls) directly influences water quality in the coastal zone; Capacit Building • Coastal wetlands, such as mangroves and lagoons, are dependant on both the water resources and coastal zone A concerted effort must be made to enhance the capaci- management; and, ties of countries, particularly developing countries with * For coastal tourism, the management of the coastal zone coral reefs, to conduct scientific research and to design and the water resources are often intricately linked. and implement informed, effective integrated management Immediate government priority must be placed on the systems. This implies not only the transfer of informa- development and implementation of ICZM strategies to tion, but more importantly, the exchange of experiential effectively manage the coral reef ecosystems of the world. learning among developing countries. These strategies should address human activities in the coastal watershed and marine environment and involve Improved Scientific Understanding of combinations of: Coral ReefEcosystems - Public education (including education in the use of traditional forms of reef tenure and management, edu- Efforts must be enhancedto surveythe coral reefs ofthe world cation on sustainable use practices, and education to to provide information on their ecological and management stabilize population growth); status. Scientific management information is needed for: * Community development; * Understanding the relationship of natural to anthropo- * Economic incentives; genic impacts; * Legal and institutional restructuring; * Conducting damage assessments; * Well managed marine protected areas; * Understanding coral recruitment, and the maintenance * Regulation and enforcement ofreefresource exploitation; and renewal of reefs; * Management of tourism and recreational activities (e.g., * Understanding current patterns to determine the distri- education programs, installation of mooring buoys); bution of reefs and the fate of pollutants; and, * Management of land-based activities and coastal devel- * Developing an improved scientific concept of what opment (e.g., using enviromnental impact assessments, constitutes a healthy reef so it will be possible to gage wise siting of facilities); and, changes on impacted ecosystems. * Coral reef ecosystem monitoring, mapping, and data- So that the health of coral reef ecosystems can be base creation and restoration. monitored in a systematic manner, the Intergovernmental Combining these management techniques is critical Oceanographic Commission (JOC) Global Coral Reef for success. If used alone, these techniques tend to be Monitoring Network, which will provide valuable data to 12 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling the larger Global Ocean Observing System, should be Capaeit Building with the Models- maintained and improved (Jameson et al. 1995). In addi- tion, new efforts to develop diagnostic coral reef moni- The integrated socio-economic and ecological model, toring techniques (Jameson et al. 1998, 1999) should be framed with a user-friendly computer interface will ben- supported. This information will not only help local au- efit stakeholders by: thorities monitor the health of their coral reef ecosystems - Assisting the communication between the various stake- and improve management capabilities, it will also provide holder groups; a perspective on the conditions of coral reef ecosystems and the effects of climate change world-wide. * Facilitating the planning process required for success- The coral reef ecosystems of the world represent an ful ICZM; important resource, both in terms of global biological di- * Providing a powerful tool to managers and stakeholders versity and with respect to the well-being of the people for demonstrating the need for coastal zone management who live near and depend upon them. Many coral reefs are and the impacts of status quo management on valuable at risk and better management is required. The future ac- coral reef resources and the local economy; and, tions of managers, scientists, national bodies, local com- * Identifying appropriate policy and institutional reforms munities and international programs will be critical in for improving the capture of resource values associ- determining whether or not these natural treasures are saved. ated with coral reefs in developing countries, and clari- fying the potential operational role of the World Bank and other development assistance agencies in helping The Role of Decision Support Models to effect these reforms. The Need For Modeling-Integrated Coastal Zone The Dissemination Strategy Management Decision Support The dissemination strategy for this work focuses on Throughout the world, both in developed and developing in-country workshops and seminars for user groups and nations, we face complex coastal zone management chal- stakeholders, government agencies, and private and non- lenges associated with our attempt to achieve economic governmental organizations involved in ICZM. In ad- growth without destroying the ecological systems that dition, it includes activities to foster cooperation among support human existence. As previously outlined, coral countries on coordinated environmental policies, strat- reef ecosystems are valuable for many reasons. They egies, and action plans in the coastal zone, and provides provide thousands of people with food, tourism revenue, a consultation mechanism for formulating, strengthen- coastal protection, and potential new medications for the ing, harmonizing, and enforcing environmental laws and treatment of diseases-despite being among the least regulations. monitored and protected natural habitats in the world. Coastal zone management decisions often require the integration of numerous parameters, frequently more than Ten Commandments for ICZM the human mind can handle effectively. In the manage- ment of tropical coral reef ecosystems, some of these In order to further guide the effective and successful imple- parameters include the location of industrial and tourist mentation of an ICZM strategy, the following "ten facilities, water quality issues such as nutrient concen- commandments" are suggested: trations and sedimentation, fishing pressure, and socio- 1. Identify problems and causes. It is tempting to blame economic concerns. what is visible for all the problems (e.g., garbage and To assist the three small island developing states of eroded beaches) and difficult to identify the actual the Maldives, Curacao and Jamaica (i.e., Montego Bay) causes of serious problems, which are usually mul- in effective coral reef management, the World Bank re- tiple in number and difficult to uncover. The identi- cently created models using multivariate statistical pro- fication of the root causes of problems and solutions cedures that show the result of ICZM decisions when a is required to ultimately prevent or reduce problems. variety of parameters interact together (see subsequent A cleanup alone is not sufficient to prevent re- occurrence. Controlling problems at the source is chapters). Costs are incorporated into the models to help the most efficient and effective means to reduce cost decision-makers choose least-cost solutions, without mak- and improve quality (Scanlan 1988). ing costly mistakes that are, in many cases, irrevocable. Integrated Coastal Zone Management in the Tropical Americas and the Role of Decision Support Models 13 2. Strivefor continuous improvement. However, know based on information building and sharing. Avoid that the environmental quality improvement joumey stalemate issues that might paralyze the process. is not without setbacks. Stay focused on the goal Equity issues must be properly identified, evaluated with continuous effort and eliminate the sources of and addressed. the problems that affect the reaching of your goal. A 7. Market reliance. The growing reliance on markets fast repair strategy is required to achieve minimum .must be incorporated into environmental policy and performance standards, and a root cause prevention incentive structures to influence behavioral changes. strategy is required to achieve excellence. Continu- Avoid high transaction and collection costs. Do not ous improvement requires continuous discovery, con- tinuous development, and continuous maintenance. outpace mplementation and acceptance of market Measures of results (samples) are required to pro- adjustments. vide data for control and improvement. Invent awards 8. Seekout business partners and recognize them. Work with criteria that can be used to check progress, pro- with the decision-makers first as those controlling vide feedback for improvement, and recognize ex- the resources must be informed and supportive of cellence (Scanlan 1988). ICZM efforts. Tackle the more simple jobs first-a 3. Gradualism and realismn. National or regional poli- visible improvement will build constituencies. cies can be implemented gradually by pilot projects 9. Recognize, motivate, andpromote excellence and good or experimental programs. The establishment of behavior. This is more effective than handing out fines, plausible and enforceable norms, standards, and and more constructive. More people working on a guidelines is an important starting point. Start mod- solution results in more solutions (Scanlan 1988). est. Do not try to implement policies and instruments 1O. Minimize government, and maximize voluntary man- beyondl the institutional means available. agement and partnerships. Governments rely too 4. Institutional integration. Intragovernmental and inter- heavily on laws, regulations and punishment. Citi- governmental integration must be pursued to over- zens must be involved to help set goals for excel- come barriers and to merge institutional strengths. lence for our society. They are the customers for Government economic agencies must be included, as govermnent services. The governance process, as well as parliamentary representation. well as key operational processes, in business or gov- ernment, has to be continuously improved to meet 5. Leadership. The environmental management sector cngng marktplae siutionsan new tolder . A ~changing marketplace situations and new stakeholder must lead the decision-making process by identify- requirements. Government does not regulate itself ing stakeholders, barriers, and channels to consen- well and is often the worst offender. Goverment sus building. should not require subsidies for things citizens do 6. Participation. Public participation is a key issue. not want and should fund things that support our Participation by stakeholders must be planned and objectives (Scanlan 1988). 14 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling Box 1.1. Environmental monitoring data as a basis for management decisions: The Montego Bay case study. Bernward Hay Louis Berger Intemational Inc., Needham, MA, USA Among the goals of any integrated coastal zone management program is to protect coastal resources, or improve them if degraded,while at the same time balance the various uses of the stakeholders of the coastal zone. A key element towards achieving this goal is a solid understanding of the environmental conditions of the coastal resources within the management district and factors that affect the state of these resources now and in the future. Some of the most significant resources are the biological ecosystem and water quality. Factors that affect the state of these resources include contaminated water sources entering the coastal zone (i.e., rivers, stormwater, sewage pipes and outfalls, groundwater seepage), circulation patterns, land use, urban growth, and many others. The specific biological resources and the factors influencing their state vary for each coastal management district. Prior to the development of every integrated management plan, existing environmental information needs to be collected and synthesized. Data gaps should be identified and an approach should be developed to fill these gaps. In many cases,the appropriate approach may consist of an environmental monitoring plan. Monitoring essentially provides for the collection of data at regular time intervals, but should also allow for the collection of data during extreme events. Regular data collection intervals are important as coastal systems may vary daily, monthly, seasonally, or annually. Extreme events such as hurricanes, major rainstorms, or drought periods may be crucial as well, as certain coastal resources are only impacted during such events. The Montego Bay Environmental Monitoring Program (USAID 1996) is an example of an environmental baseline study that has already benefited coastal zone management decision-making. At the same time, lessons learned in Montego Bay apply to many other places in the developing tropics. Overview of the Montego Bay Coastal Environment Montego Bay is the second largest city of Jamaica and the largest port city for cruise ships in Jamaica (Figure 1.1). Tourism is a vital industry for the economy of the country (see Chapter 5). The city has grown rapidly in the last 30 years when much of the now developed urban areas still consisted of sugarcane fields (Figure 1.2). In addition, a large part of the valuable mangrove forest has since been filled and converted to mainly industrial and commer- cial property. The coastal environment of Montego Bay includes two main waterbodies-Montego Bay, which consists of a deep natural harbor and engineered port basin, and the Bogue Lagoon, a shallow lagoon with a fringing coral reef and mangrove forest. Both waterbodies are part of the Montego Bay Marine Park The major river entering into Montego Bay is the Montego River, draining a comparatively large watershed. Land use in the watershed consists of urban and rural developments, agriculture (mainly sugarcane and planta- tions), and woodlands. The discharge in the river varies greatly between dry and rainstorm conditions, an impor- tant factor to be considered for monitoring and the development of management plans. For example, the sus- pended sediment load in the bay three days after hurricane Gilbert in 1989 (Figure 1.3) was significantly larger than the load from runoff after a regular rainfall (Figure 1.1). River runoff affecting coastal resources in the bay consists largely of eroded soil from the watershed and stormwater runoff from urban areas. Some of the sus- pended sediment is deposited on the reefs along the outer fringes of the bay, resulting in the smothering of reef organisms. In addition, release of nutrients during decomposition of organic matter contained in the sediment may be utilized by macroalgae, resulting in overgrown reefs. In addition to the river, the bay receives domestic wastewater effluent from an old treatment plant, as well as from non-point source discharges into gullies and small channels that drain into the bay. These discharges have been a large source of bacteria and nutrients entering into the bay. In contrast, discharges to Bogue Lagoon consist only of stormwater runoff from the immediate area of the lagoon and inflow from a groundwater spring. Integrated Coastal Zone Management in the TropicalAmericas and the Role ofDecision Support Models 15 Project Components Currently, the wastewater treatment system of the city is being greatly expanded to meet the needs of the growing population and tourism industry. The main components of the new system are nine waste stabilization ponds constructed adjacent to the upland side of the mangrove forest surrounding Bogue Lagoon (Figure 1.4). As part of the final design phase for the new treatment system, Louis Berger International Inc. was hired by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) to monitor the existing conditions in the coastal zone and to assess the impacts of the new treatment system on the coastal environment. The five-year program included regular water quality sampling of coastal waters, rivers and gullies, and ground- water (Figure 1.4), biological surveys of the mangrove system, waste source determinations, and hydrodynamic surveys. Present and future water quality conditions and contaminant loads were modeled. In addition, a circu- lation model was developed to simulate the movement of contaminants in the coastal zone. The monitoring program was part of a larger infrastructure improvement program in Jamaica (Northern Jamaica Development Project), carried out for the Planning Institute of Jamaica and the National Water Commission (USAID 1996). Bogue Lagoon In the original design, the wastewater effluent from the new treatment system was to be discharged into Bogue Lagoon. However, the monitoring results clearly demonstrated that the lagoon is already experiencing some environmental stress at the present time due to slow circulation and, thus, a slow water exchange rate with the ocean. Slow circulation is caused by the shallow reef that spans the entire entrance to the lagoon. The lagoon is nutrient enriched, in part because nutrients in the sediment are recycled back into the water column several times before they are transported out to sea. On the other hand, the concentrations of fecal bacteria in the lagoon waters are very low, making the lagoon suitable for water contact recreation. Discharging effluent from the new wastewater treatment ponds into the lagoon would have increased the nutrient concentrations in the lagoon by 200% to 1,300% by the year 2015, greatly reducing the diversity and abundance of aquatic species. Possible adverse effects could also have been floating macroalgal mats, occasional fish kills, and odor development. Further, increased bacteria loading from the effluent would have rendered the lagoon unsuitable for water contact recreation. Aside from serious ecological impacts, the tourism industry would have suffered. Montego Bay In the bay of Montego Bay, the water exchange rate with the open ocean is roughly an order of magnitude more rapid than in Bogue Lagoon. Thus, nutrients and bacteria from land sources are transported comparatively rapidly to the open ocean rather than staying in the bay. Further,the main coastal resources are limited to the outer bay, including fringing reefs and three beaches on the northern side. Environmental monitoring and modeling indicated that the nutrient loads in the bay would increase from the new wastewater treatment system by only 5% to 15% by the year 2015. Bacteria concentrations would sharply decrease, possibly to levels that would allow contact recreation in the outer bay during dry weather. However, the data also showed that during rainstorms, the runoff from the Montego River watershed would continue to discharge elevated concentrations of bacteria and nutrients into the bay. Management of the coastal resources in Montego Bay needs to take source reduction in this watershed into consideration for future management activi- ties. Main Project Recommendations Given the existing conditions in the coastal zone of Montego Bay, our monitoring team recommended changing the targeted effluent receiving body from the lagoon to the bay. In addition, we recommended lining the wastewa- ter treatment ponds with an impermeable layer to prevent seepage of nutrient-rich wastewater through the ground into the lagoon. These recommendations prevented serious environmental problems for the coastal waters in Bogue Lagoon, and averted negative economic consequences for the tourism industry. For example, a 16 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling multi-million dollar condominium development along a small part of the lagoon is currently under construction. The lagoon has further potential for ecotourism activities, thus providing income for sustaining local businesses and potentially for financing the marine park. Also, the cruise ship port is immediately adjacent to the lagoon. Property values would have been considerably lower, ecotourism would not be possible, and the first impression of Jamaica by tourists arriving in the cruise ship port would have suffered if the lagoon was overgrown with algal mats and experiencing occasional massive fish kills and odors. At the same time, the impacts to Montego Bay are considered minor given the limited natural resources in the bay,the circulation pattern in the bay which tends to transport land runoff straight out to sea, and the fact that there are other, in part natural,factors that will limit the development of pristine coral reefs within the bay proper, such as large stormwater discharge events that carry large amounts of silt, nutrients and bacteria from the Montego River watershed. The recommendations from our study were adopted by the National Water Commission of Jamaica prior to construction of the new wastewater treatment system. Construction is expected to be completed by the sum- mer of 1999. Long-Term Benefits Long-term, the extensive environmental database generated for the coastal waters in the area will serve as the basis for other coastal zone management decisions in the future. Such decisions will include, for example, issues related to the rapid growth of the city, the expansion of the industrial zone and associated handling of discharges, stormwater management, coastal zoning for appropriate uses, and the management of the marine park. The project in Montego Bay demonstrated that understanding of the environment and its response to human induced changes of influencing factors should be one of the first steps in the process towards balanced coastal zone management decisions. Such understanding is frequently also important for the "ground-truthing" of eco- nomic benefit models and necessary in the development of integrated ecological economic models. N Figure 1.1. Photograph of the coastal zone of Montego Bay, looking to the northeast. Bogue Lagoon is in the foreground. Montego Bay (the $ waterbody) is in the centre of the photograph. The waste stabilization pond system is currently under construction to the right of Bogue Lagoon adjacent to the mangrove forest. The straight brown plume entering Montego Bay via Montego River consists of suspended sediment derived from soil erosion after earlier rainfall. The City of Montego Bay is in the background. The peninsula in the middle of the photograph is Montego Freeport (photograph taken by J.S. Tyndale-Biscoe on September 9, 1990). U~~~~ IN, Figure 1.2. Bogue Lagoon 35 years ago, looking to the west. Montego Freeport at that time consisted of several mangrove islands that were later filled and connected. Most of the land use in the area was sugarcane cultivation. The rnouth of Montego River was located in the southern corner of Montego Bay. The mouth was later moved east during straightening of the river (photograph taken by J.S. Tyndale-Biscoe on October 24, 1960). , glE~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~4 lFigure 1.3. Project area three days after hurricane Gilbert, looking to the northeast. The hurricane resulted in a large inflow of suspended sedimenits into Montego Bay. The basin of the port does not appear to be affected strongly by the Montego River plume. Sediment was also resuspended from Montego Freeport and the outer Bogue Lagoon. The inner lagoon showed little effects (photograph taken by J.S. Tyndale-Biscoe on September 15, 1988). 0 20 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling REEF LCRV ; MANGROVE WATER DEPTH W03CONTOUR REGULAR WATER QUAUITY SAMPLING LOCATION City of GRAPHIC SCALE eAontego Bay I N NtTES 2 0 )0 200 400 c0c ffcWO .. W073 -02 ,,< 9.,,, ' S "N.,, R ~~~OUTER BAY7 , r be .... >N S"" c $ ?/~~~~~~Ott .iS rt " p"' ^ "22 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~....... ,. ,, ....... W021 ~wQI Io 3; N /WQ2D - <' ^ W / W04 ...5 W 1 W06 P~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Trcm, L' wa X s : 0 to non-government organization (NGO) management (pri- 1993 vate) in 1996. A group of concerned citizens who had95Motly earlier formed the Montego Bay Marine Park Trust in History of: sedimentation 1992, obtained responsibility from the Government of eutrophication Jamaica (public) to manage the Park under the authority mechanical damage ofthe Natural Resources Conservation Authority (NRCA). overfishing In the early 1970s, local dive shop operators noticed Figure 2.2. Natural and anthropogenic impacts to the deterioration in the coastal marine environment and the coral reef ecosystem in Montego started lobbying the Ministry of Tourism for establish- Bay, Jamaica (adapted from Sullivan ment of a marine protected area. In July, 1974, a 59ha and Chiappone 1994). Local Needs and Interventions for Management of Coral Reefs in the Developing TropicalAmericas 25 protected area off Cornwall Beach was created by the project in August 1989, with funding from the Govern- Government of Jamaica under the Beach Control Act and ment of Jamaica and USAID, and technical assistance the management responsibility given to the Jamaica Tour- from The Nature Conservancy (TNC) and the Jamaica ist Board. The area was called the Cornwall Beach Ma- Conservation and Development Trust. rine Park. The boundaries were never marked, although In August, 1989, the Montego Bay Marine Park be- the marker buoys had been purchased, and the regula- came a reality. The steering committee evolved into the tions were never enforced although five wardens had been Local Advisory Committee (LAC), which was responsible appointed. Similar to the Ocho Rios Marine Park that for the hiring of the first members of staff and offices was created in 1966, the Cornwall Beach Marine Park being established at Cornwall Beach. Further legislation was only a "paper park". was put in place under the Natural Resources Conserva- In 1986, the Minister of Tourism formed the Marine tion Authority Act, Natural Resources (Montego Bay Park Action Committee to act as a catalyst for the devel- Marine Park) Order, 1991, for the governance of the Park. opment of marine parks in Jamaica. The committee initi- Initially, the Project Management Unit (PMU) for the ated the preparation of a project proposal for the develop- PARC project was based at the Natural Resources Con- ment of the Montego Bay Marine Park. The study was servation Authority (NRCA) before moving to the Plan- incorporated by the Government of Jamaica and the ning Institute of Jamaica. Under an agreement between United States Agency for International Development the United States and the Government of Jamaica, a "debt (USAID) into the proposal for the establishment of a Ja- for nature swap" created the capital for the Jamaica Na- maica National Parks System, which was implemented tional Park Trust Fund to provide perpetual funding for as the Protected Areas Resource Conservation (PARC) the two national parks, the Montego Bay Marine Park fill Diving/ Fishing Zone rpr Diving/ No Fishing Zone Caribbean Sea Doctor's Cave Beach 3 Multi-Use Channel Ml 1 No Fishing Zone j Swimming Zone 2 > . > 3 M~~~~~~~ontego River ° Nauticaliles Reading Bogue Heights Figure 2.3. The Montego Bay Marine Park and the new zoning plan. 26 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling and the terrestrial Blue and John Crow Mountain National Local Needs for Management Using Park. Park staff reported to the government and the man- ReefFix to Implement ICRI and COCOMO ager met regularly with the LAC. A group of members of the LAC went on to incorporate the Montego Bay Marine Jamaica is a key player in the International Coral Reef Park Trust as a membership organization for Friends of Initiative (ICRI). They were one of the original eight the Park in 1992. founding countries of ICRI and Montego Bay hosted the The PMU managed the park until April, 1996, when ICRI Tropical Americas Regional Workshop where man- funding under the PARC project came to an end and re- agement, capacity building, and research and monitoring sponsibility for the Marine Park reverted to the NRCA. priorities were outlined for implementing ICRI in the On September 20, 1996, the NRCA delegated manage- region (Woodley 1995). ment for the Park to the Montego Bay Marine Park Trust Continuing their leadership role, Jamaica-via the (MBMPT) under an innovative co-management policy Montego Bay Marine Park-is setting the example for adopted for Jamaica's National Parks and Protected Area ICRI implementation in the tropical Americas through System. the new ICZM coral reef restoration, watershed manage- The Montego Bay Marine Park's purpose is embod- ment and capacity building demonstration project called ied in its mission statement: "To conserve, restore and ReefFix. ReefFix is also the implementation phase of manage marine coastal resources in Montego Bay for the the World Bank coral reef ecosystem decision support maximum sustainable benefit of traditional users, the com- modeling project for Montego Bay, the results of which munity, the nation, and the enjoyment of all mankind, by are reported elsewhere in this publication (specifically, providing effective programs for public education, tech- see Chapters 9 and 10). nical support, monitoring and interpretive enforcement". The MBMPT embarked on a management program for Rationale increased effectiveness. A five year management plan for the expansion of the ongoing science, education and The International Coral Reef Initiative State of the Reefs enforcement program and a business plan which outlined report (Jameson et al 1995) concludes that the coral costs for equipment and personnel requirements were reef ecosystems at greatest risk around the world are in prepared. This nation-wide experiment in public-private South and Southeast Asia, East Africa, and the tropical management of national marine and terrestrial parks is Americas (see Chapter 1). The Caribbean Sea contains starting to show signs of fruit in Montego Bay. some of the world's most productive and biologically rich The purpose of this chapter is to: marine environments, including the world's second larg- 1. Characterize local needs for coral reef ecosystem est barrier reef-the Belize Barrier Reef. Unfortunately, management in the developing tropical Americas by reefs and other coastal environments throughout the re- using the Montego Bay Marine Park as a case study gion are under increasing assault. Pollution from sewage example. Local needs for management are identified wastes and fertilizers, coastal erosion, overfishing, and and addressed through ReefFix, a specially designed unmanaged coastal development are contributing to watershed management and coral reef restoration pro- coastal decline. Recognizing the magnitude of these gram designed to implement the International Coral threats and the need for counter measures, the Intema- Reef Initiative (ICRI) Framework for Action in the tional Maritime Organization declared the Caribbean a Tropical Americas. ReefFix is also the implementa- . . . tion phase of the COral reef COasts in MOntego Bay Tparticularly sensitve area" (Jameson et al. 1995). (COCOMO) integrated coastal zone management de- The goal of ReefFix is to design and implement a cision support modeling program (Huber and Jameson least cost ICZM coral reef ecosystem restoration and 1999; Chapter 10). watershed management project and then transfer the in- 2. Outline ongoing Park interventions to address local formation and technology to 20 other tropical American needs for management, as well as interventions in- countries facing similar challenges. At present, no coun- volving public-private partnerships to prevent and try (or any of the over 100 marine protected areas) in the manage water pollution in this valuable coral reef eco- tropical Americas is taking an integrated model-driven system. approach to watershed management for coral reef protec- 3. Elucidate some of the social and poverty related is- tion and management. sues that make coral reef ecosystem management and Unlike most marine projects that strive to do research water quality improvement extremely challenging in in areas with good environmental conditions, ReefFix will Montego Bay. take a more management related approach. It will work Local Needs and Interventions for Management of Coral Reefs in the Developing Tropical Americas 27 in an area that suffers from many, if not all, of the water- ments, as well as changing situations, without compro- shed and marine ailments of Tropical American countries mising effectiveness. -an area that desperately needs ICZM and restoration- The ICZM Capacity Building component will focus Montego Bay, Jamaica. on regional capacity building and will draw on the suc- cesses of the Montego Bay Marine Park Coral Reef Res- Major Components toration and Watershed Management Demonstration project. Capacity building includes establishing and The two integrated components of ReefFix promote the strengthening human resource and institutional capabili- restoration, conservation and sustainable use of biodiver- ties for integrated coastal resources management, science, sity in the region and promote the sustainable use of coral training and education. A concerted effort must be made reefs, watersheds and international waters. Specifically, to enhance the capacities of countries responsible for valu- these include: able coastal resources to conduct science-based research 1. An ICZM Coral Reef Restoration and Watershed Man- and to design and implement informed, effective inte- agement Demonstration component that will restore a grated management systems. This implies not only the coral reef ecosystem and manage a watershed at transfer of information, but more importantly, the ex- Montego Bay, Jamaica. change of experiential learning among countries of the 2. An ICZM Capacity Building component that will trans- region. ReefFix will design and implement a program to fer the information and technology from the demon- build expertise in coral reef management and integrated stration component to 20 countries (as identified in an coastal resources management. Presently, the shortage of ICRI report; see Woodley 1995) throughout the tropi- trained personnel on many islands in the region requires cal Americas with coral reef eutrophication and sedi- the sharing of limited expertise through networking. The mentation problems. These countries potentially in- clude the Bahamas, Barbados, Brazil, Cayman Islands, project will draw on the talents and experience of other Colombia, Costa Rica, Cuba, Curacao, Dominica, regional institutions and facilities in the design and imple- Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Grenada, Guadeloupe, mentation of its capacity building program. Haiti, Martinique, Nicaragua, Panama, St. Lucia, ReefFix will also encourage the private sector's role Trinidad and Tobago, and Venezuela. in ICZM by seriously engaging them in the management The ICZM Coral Reef Restoration and Watershed of coral reefs and related coastal ecosystems by demon- Management Demonstration component is the operational strating to them, via workshops, educational material, aspect of ReefFix. In this component, ReefFix will use media products and technical assistance, the benefits of: and develop cost-effective techniques that can be repli- * Using appropriate technologies; cated throughout the tropical Americas. These include: - Developing a trained and educated workforce; and, * Marine protected area management; * Using innovative approaches to improve environmen- * Management of land-based activities and coastal tal operating standards. development; * Resource assessment, monitoring, restoration, and Objectives and Outcomes database creation; * Environmental impact assessment; ReefFix will meet its goals by accomplishing the follow- * Community development; ing objectives: * Tourism and recreation management; 1. Develop a generic least cost ICZM decision support * Economic incentives; model template that can be custom tailored for any * Regulation and enforcement; coral reef ecosystem in the tropical Americas; * Legal and institutional restructuring; and, 2. Develop a least cost ICZM coral reef decision support * Public education and outreach. model for the Montego Bay Marine Park (COCOMO; Combining these management approaches is critical Chapter 10); 3. Develop and implement a Montego Bay Watershed for success. If used alone, these approaches tend to be ag ement a thatewill, oet erove inefectve oer he lng-erm.The mus bestrogly Management Action Plan that will, over time, Improve ineffective over the long-term. They must be strongly water quality for the coral reef ecosystem (reduce supported at scales ranging from the village to nation, and eutrophication and sedimentation), improve water often at the regional scale as well. They must be oriented quality for human users (reduce fecal coliform), and towards long-term sustainability of coastal resources and increase coral cover and decrease algal cover on the designed to be adaptive to different cultures and govern- Park's reefs; 28 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling 4. Develop and implement a Montego Bay Marine Park Natural Resources Conservation Authority, Water Re- Fisheries Management Action Plan, including eco- sources Authority, National Water Commission, Montego tourism altemative income programs for retrained fish- Bay Sewage Treatment Plant, Ministry of Agriculture's ers in Montego Bay that will, over time, increase fish Fisheries Division, Jamaica Tourist Board, Montego Bay abundance, improve economic conditions for fishers, Resort Board, Tourism Product Development Company, and help make Montego Bay Marine Park financially Jamaica Hotel and Tourism Association, Greater Mon- self-sustainig; and, tego Bay Redevelopment Company, St. James Parish 5. Implement a Tropical Americas DemonstrationAction Plantha wil iprov ICM cpacty fr rstoing Council, and United States Agency for International De- coalth reef ecosystemspin20troveI cpacic Amri touing velopment). In the capacity building phase, stakeholders coral reef ecosystems in 20 tropical American coun- icuete2 onre hr okhp r ed n tries as a result of the demonstration program that include the 20 countries where workshops are held, and includes a ReefFix coral reef watershed restoration will be similar to those listed for the demonstration phase handbook, a video, and workshop materials. but with a local and national focus specific to the country involved. Links to National Priorities On the national level, ReefFix is directly linked to pri- Interventions ority programs of Jamaica's Natural Resources Conser- vation Authority (NRCA) to manage watersheds and to To address local needs for management, the Montego Bay establish and restore marine protected areas under the Marine Park Trust is implementing a variety of low cost management of local NGOs. As outlined above, the and effective programs that can be called "soft interven- NRCA delegated authority to manage the Montego Bay tions". These soft interventions focus primarily on edu- Marine Park to the Montego Bay Marine Park Trust. cation, enforcement, public relations activities, research ReefFix also meets many of the objectives outlined in and monitoring, and volunteer programs (Tables 2.1 to the Montego Bay Marine Park Management Plan (Tables 2.5). In addition, the Park, in partnership with various 2.1 to 2.6). public entities, is implementing a variety of programs to On the regional level, ReefFix is linked to the Regional mitigate water pollution impacts to the coral reef eco- International Coral Reef Initiative (ICRI), the UNEP Glo- system (Table 2.6). bal Program of Action for the Protection of the Marine Environment from Land-Based Activities, and the IOC Education Strategies and Activities Global Coral Reef Monitoring Network (see Chapter 1). One of the primary mandates of the Montego Bay Marine ReefFix addresses the specific needs identified in a sur- Park is to provide the public with information about envi- vey of the 25 tropical American countries participating in ronmental issues that surround and affect the Park. The the 1995 ICRI Regional Workshop (Woodley 1995). diverse habitats and resources andthe setting of the Park These include a need for ICZM planning approaches (i.e., offer unique educational opportunities for the interpreta- restoration, mitigation of specific impacts, and determi- tion of tropical marine environments for Jamaicans and nation of carrying capacities), capacity building in coastal visitors alike. Educational strategies fall into two distinct and marine resource management, and increased research categories-community participation and product devel- and monitoring capabilities. Workshop participants also opment (Table 2.1). The community participation program identified a series of initial steps required to provide a encompasses all projects that involve direct interaction basis for increased regional collaboration, including ini- with the public by Park officials, including training work- tiatives to strengthen management capabilities in special shops, exhibit production, special events, environment area management planning, education and environmen- watch clubs, and fishing trap mesh exchange programs. tal awareness programs, and increased capacity at regional The product development strategies include production marine institutions. of displays, signs, and printed materials, as well as media programs. Stakeholders Involved Montego Bay Marine Park In the ReefFix demonstration phase, stakeholders include Education Goals and Objectives Montego Bay businesses, community groups, NGOs, resi- The Montego Bay Marine Park, as an integral part of the dents, educational institutions, and national and local Jamaican National Park System, reflects a unique and government agencies (i.e., Montego Bay Marine Park, important aspect of Jamaica's natural heritage. Hence, Table 2.1. Education interventions for the Montego Bay Marine Park-agencies, organizations, and staff identified for implementing strategies and activities (EWO = Environmental Watch Organization; NEST = National Environmental Societies Trust; JCDT = Jamaica Conservation Development Trust; NRCA = Natural Resources Conservation Authority of Jamaica; MBMP = Montego Bay Marine Park; JTB - Jamaica Tourist Board; EE = environmental education). Agencies and organizations MBMP staff Water Education Enforcement Volunteer Research and Director Interventions EWO NEST JCDT NRCA Hotels sports Media coordinator coordinator coordinator monitoring coordinator COMMUNITY INVOLVEMENT Training, workshops, and schools EE in schools 0 ° * 0 0 0 0 0 Sponsor and support adult EE a 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Establish a certification program 0 * 0 0 0 0 0 0 Regular educational tours 0 * 0 0 0 0 Public forums Lecture series 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Poster and photo contest 0 0 0 0 0 Special events Maintain exposition booths 0 0 0 0 0 Organize environmental expositions 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Earth Day and other events 0 0 0 0 0 0 * 0 0 Summer youth program O * 0 0 0 PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT Printed material Reproduce brochure 0 0 Produce a quarterly newsletter 0 0 0 Maintain a internet web page 0 0 Shipping to businesses 0 0 ° ° ° Provide information to user groups 0 0 * ° ° Periodicals and publications * Produce a fact-sheet for JTB O 0 0 0 Provide information to service industry 0 0 0 0 0 Audio-visual materials Audio-visual library * ° ° Theme oriented slide presentations * ° Displays Develop mobile displays * 0 0 Public service announcements Develop a program of announcements 0 0 0 0 0 n Staffing levels Hire staff 6 * lead 0 assist Table 2.2. Enforcement interventions for the Montego Bay Marine Park-agencies, organizations, and staff identified for implementing strategies and activities (JDFCG = Jamaica Defence Forces-Coast Guard; NRCA = Natural Resources Conservation Authority of Jamaica; MBMP = Montego Bay Marine Park; JCF = Jamaica Constabulary Force; JMI - Jamaica Maritime Institute; MBFD = Montego Bay Fire Department; HAZMAT = hazardous materials). Agencies and organizations MBMP staff Resort Marine Education Volunteer Enforcement Interventions Patrol JDFCG Police NRCA MBMP JCF JMI MBFD coordinator coordinator Secretary Rangers coordinator OPERATIONAL STRATEGIES Comprehensive enforcement program X Spot check of vessels 0 * Simplify regulation and pamphlet issuing * O Document warnings 0 Improve land support 0 * I Develop special operations 0 0 0 0 0 o Develop joint operations 0 0 0 0 0 a STAFFING STRATEGIES Staffing levels Establish volunteer ranger program 0 0 * Hire park rangers * a EQUIPMENT STRATEGIES Upgrade equipment Purchase equipment D O 2 Preventative maintenance a Bi-monthly enforcement equipment programs O * Weekly enforcement equipment programs o * Develop office equipment program 0 * Acquire preventative maintenance material 0 a COMMUNICATION STRATEGIES Communication system Hand-held radio acquisition 0 0 Acquire beeper 0 Upgrade mobile station 0 O Improve radio linkages 0 0 Table 2.2. continued Agencies and organizations AMBMP staff Resort Marine Education Volunteer Enforcement Interventions Patrol JDFCG Police NRCA MBMP JCF JMI MBFD coordinator coordinator Secretary Rangers coordinator Enforcement action code Construct code A 0 0 0 Construct code B °0 0 * Implement use of codes 0 a * Deter breaches of codes ° 0 0 Develop code designation 0 0 0 0 O * TRAINING STRATEGIES Enforcement training Implement HAZMAT training 0 0 0 0 a Acquire oil spill training 0 0 0 Acquire conflict resolution training 0 0 0 0 a Acquire weapon handling training * Develop self-defense capabilities ° * Improve outboard motor repair training 0 0 0 0 Improve marine fire fighting capabilities 0 0 0 0 REGULATION STRATEGIES Regulation amendments Increase fines 0 0 Acquire seizure and confiscation powers 0 0 llire legal advisor * 0 ZONING STRATEGIES a New zoning plan Obtain approval of plan 0 * Install and maintain demarcation buoys 0 0 Install and maintain mooring buoys O * lead 0 assist 32 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling Table 2.3. Public relations interventions for the Montego Bay Marine Park-agencies, organizations, and staff identified for implementing strategies and activities (MBMP = Montego Bay Marine Park). Agencies and organizations MBMP staff Research & Administration Education Volunteer monitoring Enforcement Director Interventions MBMP Media coordinator coordinator coordinator coordinator coordinator Park identity New park logo * 0 New uniforms 0 0 0 * 0 0 Membership Begin membership a * 0 0 0 0 0 Newsletter Produce quarterly newsletter (see Table 2.1) Mailing list database * 0 0 0 Media Newspaper articles (see Table 2.1) Press releases 0 0 0 0 ° ° Radio program 0 0 0 Television program * 0 0 Staff levels Hire staff 0 Public service announcements (see Table 2.1) * lead o assist it is of the utmost importance to educate the public To achieve the goals defined above, the following concerning the natural treasures at risk to ensure that this objectives should be met: heritage is preserved for future generations. These goals - Increase community cooperation and participation in respond to the specific environmental education needs of the management of the Park; the Montego Bay community and include: * Increase understanding of and voluntary compliance * Promoting the awareness of and support for the Mon- with regulatory requirements of the Park (e.g., zoning tego Bay Marine Park; regulations); * Encouraging and promoting a sense of stewardship re- - Develop, support, and maintain cooperative educational garding the marine environment; programs with the community (e.g., turtle watches with * Facilitating environmental education opportunities for hotels; tours with boat operators); all segments of society; * Provide the public with information gained through * Promoting a clear awareness of the economic, biologi- research within and about the Park and relevant re- cal, recreational, educational, and cultural values of the sources; marine ecosystem, as well as the interdependence of * Increase public awareness about the cumulative en- these factors upon one another; and, vironmental impacts degrading the Park and provide * Providing income generating training opportunities for relevant solutions to the problems addressed; individuals displaced by the enforcement of Park regu- * Provide opportunities for individuals to become "stew- lations. ards of the environment"; Table 2.4a. Research and monitoring interventions for the Montego Bay Marine Park-agencies and organizations identified for implementing strategies and activities (MBMP = Montego Bay Marine Park; NRCA = Natural Resource Conservation Authority; FD = Fisheries Division; NWC = National Water Commission; UWA = Underground Water Authority; NEST = National Environmental Societies Trust; TPDCo = Tourist Product Development Corporation; PIOJ = Planning Institute of Jamaica; PCD = Parish Council Public Works Department; CDC = Conservation Data Centre; UWI = University of the West Indies; GMRC = Greater Montego Bay Redevelopment Company; JTB = Jamaica Tourist Board; RB = Resort Board; QA/QC = quality assurance/quality control). a Agencies and organizations 2 Interventions MBMP NRCA FD NWC UWA NEST TPDCo PIOJ PCD CDC UWI GMRC JTB RB RESEARCH MANAGEMENT a Park database Assess user needs 0 0 0 ° ° Implementation plan * O O O Disseminate findings a Information exchange * Sponsor conferences * 0 Journal publication * a Advisory committee } Establish committee * a MONITORING STRATEGIES Water quality monitoring Historical assessment 0 ° ° Circulation studies * O 0 a Water quality standards 0 0 Inter-park laboratory 0 0 0 Runoff practices 0 0 0 0 Monitoring implementation plan 0 ° ° Select organization 0 0 0 QA/QC authority and protocols 0 0 0 Implement monitoring 0 0 0 y Indicators Develop and evaluate indicators 0 0 0 Ecological monitoring a Hire coordinator 0 : Ecological information system 0 0 0 Status and trends assessment 0 0 0 Fisheries ecological monitoring 0 0 0 Sampling protocol 0 0 0 QA/QC protocol 0 0 0 Table 2.4a. continued Agencies and organizations Interventions MBMP NRCA FD NWC UWA NEST TPDCo PIOJ PCD CDC UWI GMRC JTB RB Index of park health * ° ° Volunteer program 0 Socio-economic monitoring Fishing gear survey 0 S License program 0 0 0 O Control area monitoring a Develop baseline data 0 0 0 Monitor control area 0 0 0 FISHERIES IMPACTS N0 Aquaculture alternatives Assess, develop, and promote alternatives 0 0 0 Artificial reefs Assess impacts 0 0 ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT Habitat restoration Program of restoration research * 0 Carrying capacity Assess impacts 0 0 0 Leachate transport Research on leachate transport 0 0 D Global change Research on global change 0 0 PREDICTIVE STRATEGIES Predictive models Predictive modeling workshop 00 0 Water quality impact research , Water quality impact research O O i STAFFING STRATEGIES Staffing levels Hire staff * lead 0 assist Local Needs and Interventions for Management of Coral Reefs in the Developing TropicalAmericas 35 Table 2.4b. Research and monitoring interventions for the Montego Bay Marine Park - staff identified for implementing strategies and activities (MBMP = Montego Bay Marine Park; QA/QC = quality assurance/quality control). MBMP staff Research and Education monitoring Volunteer Interventions coordinator coordinator coordinator Secretary Director RESEARCH MANAGEMENT Park database Assess user needs * Implementation plan 0 0 Disseminate findings Information exchange 0 * ° Sponsor conferences 0 * 0 0 Journal publication 0 0 O Advisory committee Establish committee 0 ° 0 MONITORING STRATEGIES Water quality monitoring Historical assessment 0 0 Circulation studies * 0 Water quality standards 0 O Inter-park laboratory 0 ° Runoff practices 0 0 ° Monitoring implementation plan 0 0 Select organization 0 0 QA/QC authority and protocols 0 O Implement monitoring 0 O Indicators Develop and evaluate indicators 0 ° Ecological monitoring Hire coordinator 0 Ecological information system * 0 Status and trends assessment 0 0 Fisheries ecological monitoring 0 0 Sampling protocol * O QA/QC protocol 0 ° Index of park health * 0 Volunteer program 0 O o Socio-economic monitoring Fishing gear survey 0 0 License program 0 0 Control area monitoring Develop baseline data 0 0 Monitor control area 0 0 FISHERIES IMPACTS Aquaculture alternatives Assess, develop, and promote alternatives * 0 Artificial reefs Assess impacts 0 O 36 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling Table 2.4b. continued MBMP staff Research and Education monitoring Volunteer Interventions coordinator coordinator coordinator Secretary Director ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT Habitat restoration Program of restoration research * 0 Carrying capacity Assess impacts * ° Leachate transport Research on leachate transport 0 0 Global change Research on global change 0 C PREDICTIVE STRATEGIES Predictive models Predictive modeling workshop 0 0 Water qualitv impact research Water quality impact research * 0 STAFFING STRATEGIES Staffing levels Hire staff 0 0 * lead o assist * Provide and support multi-disciplinary environmental area high schools and conducts trips and presentations education experiences; for other schools whenever possible, including the Uni- * Provide information at high profile locations; versity of the West Indies at Mona. Past programs have dealt with rural schools and teacher training. The Edu- * Provide and support training opportunities for resource cation Coordinator also facilitates the organization of users (e.g., training programs to retrain displaced poster contests in Montego Bay schools during special fishers); events such as Earth Day. * Provide informative educational programs to school systems; Presenting information to user groups and community members. The Education Coordinator currently gives * Provide sequential exposure to environmental edu- presentations on request to various community and cation, allowing for the construction and understand- school groups. The Park also organizes boat trips and ing of an ecosystem approach over time (e.g., weekly writes weekly articles and press releases for local news- media articles); papers (i.e., the Western Mirror and the Jamaica Ob- * Provide educational information at technical and sci- server) and other periodicals. entific meetings; and, * Conducting educational tours. Currently, the Educa- * Provide environmental education opportunities for tion Coordinator provides at least one tour per month adults and those not attending school. to schools or other groups. Tours include site visits and descriptions of coral reef ecology and mangrove Existing Education Programs ecology. A tour guide is currently being trained so that The following programs are currently being operated by four trips per month can be arranged. the Montego Bay Marine Park: * Maintaining displays at local and national events. The * Promoting and supporting environmental education in Park currently maintains a presence at most regional schools. The Park currently works closely with five and some national events. Local Needs and Interventionsfor Management of Coral Reefs in the Developing TropicalAmericas 37 Table 2.5. Volunteer interventions for the Montego Bay Marine Park. Strategy Activity Description Boating Boat access Assist in public access survey Habitat restoration Serve as "buddy divers" and underwater assistants Derelict vessels Assist in a survey of abandoned and derelict vessels Mooring buoy and reef marking Assist with mooring buoy and reef marking projects Visitor registration Serve as registrars for the Park Damage assessment Assist the damage assessment team Fishing Artificial reefs Assist in reef construction, data collection and monitoring Gear removal Assist in gear removal, particularly "ghost traps" (abandoned or lost fish traps) Gear and method impacts Assist with research on low-impact fishing gear Recreation Recreation survey Assist in implementing the recreation survey Research and monitoring Water quality monitoring Provide monitoring assistance Ecological monitoring Assist in the monitoring program Education and outreach Printed materials Assist Park staff in developing and distributing printed materials Audio-visual materials Assist in developing the audio-video library and audio and video products Signs, displays, and exhibits Assist in developing and installing Park signs, displays, and exhibits Training, workshops, and school programs Assist in training, workshops, and school programs Public service announcements Assist in developing public service announcements, particularly local press releases Promotional Assist in developing promotional materials Public forum Assist in preparing for public meetings, volunteer speakers bureau, and bay watch hotline Special events Assist at trade shows and special events General support Office support Computer support Marine and dock maintenance Fund-raising Inter-organizational volunteer coordination Group leaders Boat captains Special project * Organizing environmental events. The Education Co- a Internet website. A webpage is currently on-line and is ordinator currently organizes activities and displays for updated periodically. The newsletter is in the process events, including park related expositions, mangrove of being posted on the site. replanting projects and beach clean-ups. * Writing articles for publication in newspapers and * Sumnmer children s programs. The Park staff has tradi- magazines. The Education Coordinator currently pub- tionally organized a summer camp for kindergarten and lishes weekly articles in local and national papers. primary school age children. The program has prima- Specific user groups are also being targeted, as articles rily focused on making crafts from reused materials. are also being sent to international scuba magazines The traditional camp did not take place in 1997, but such as Skin Diver. swimming and snorkel lessons were provided to mem- bers of environment watch clubs. Enforcement Strategies and Activities * Quiarterly newsletter. The Education Coordinator is currently producing a quarterly newsletter and seeking The enforcement program of the Park is an essential funding for production. component of resource protection (Table 2.2). Adequate 38 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling Table 2.6. Public-private partnerships in water pollution prevention and management in Montego Bay, Jamaica (MBMP = Montego Bay Marine Park; NWC = National Water Commission; NRCA = Natural Re- sources Conservation Authority; JDFCG = Jamaica Defence Forces-Coast Guard; UWA = Underground Water Authority; SJPC = St. James Parish Council). Public-private Pesticides Sediments Nutrient Program partnership and oil enrichment status CORAL modeling Provides least Provides least Model operational (World Bank/MBMP) cost solutions cost solutions early 1999 ReefFix restoration Watershed Watershed Watershed ReefFix proposal program (World management management management submitted for GEF Bank/MBMP) component component component approval Sewage treatment Ideas for design of Periodic interactions and effluent disposal new plant and disposal during new plant (NWC/MBMP) methods submitted construction Artificial wetlands Critical for removing Critical for removing Under consideration program sediments from sediments from by NWC and NRCA (NRCA/MBMP) sewage effluent sewage effluent Water quality Oil spills (park Ships and hotels Ongoing enforcement rangers, coast (park rangers, coast (NRCAiNWC/ guard and marine guard and marine JDFCGIMBMP) police operations) police operations) Mangrove River bank and Aids in removal of Ongoing, with school reseeding program shore stabilization/ nutrients from participation (NRCA/MBMP) sediment filtration polluted runoff Green certification Hotels must meet Under development (NRCA/Hotels/ sewage treatment and MBMP) disposal standards Hydrology Examines effects Clarifies role of Historical hydrological assessment (NRCAl of structural inflows from land- assessment requires NWC/MBMP) modifications based sources funding Circulation studies Estimates long-term Estimates long-term Estimates long-term Requires funding (NRCAINWC/MBMP) and episodic transport and episodic transport and episodic transport Water quality standards Pesticide and oil Sediment loading Nitrogen and Under development (NRCAIMBMP) standards created standards created phosphorous standards and biocriteria created Inter-park laboratory Processes Processes Processes Requires funding (NRCAINWC/MBMP) monitoring samples monitoring samples monitoring samples Storm water runoff Collection locations Street sweeping and Ordinances aimed at Ongoing (requires practices (UWA/ and education litter control controlling application funding to expand SJPCKMBMP) prograrns programs on public and reach and intensity) private landscapes Water quality Relevant parameters Relevant parameters Relevant parameters Plan requires development monitoring program monitored monitored monitored and funds required for (NRCAJNWCIMBMP) implementation Indicator species Indicators require Indicators require Indicators require Requires funding; program (NRCA/ calibration and calibration and calibration and indicators incorporated NWC/MBMP) statistical framework statistical framework statistical framework into biocriteria program Local Needs and Interventions for Management of Coral Reefs in the Developing TropicalAmericas 39 financial support, effective supervision and a supportive 1. Inter-agency agreements and cooperative strategies to: judicial system, combined with proper ranger recruitment, * Strengthen the existing enforcement efforts with other training and equipment, form the basis of a professional agencies; enforcement operation. The goal of Park enforcement is - Develop partnerships with other enforcement agencies to prevent negative resource impacts through full com- in order to provide a strong enforcement presence in pliance with the Natural Resources (Marine Parks) Regu- the Park; lations, 1992, under the Natural Resources Conservation . Maintain an active relationship internally among Park Authority Act, as well as relevant sections of regulations staff members and with other enforcement agencies to under other governnent acts (i.e., the Fisheries Act, the identify areas of mutual concern and develop coopera- Tourist Board Act, the Wildlife Protection Act). A new tive responses to enforcement issues; zoning plan for the Park also helps achieve enforcement * Explore cooperative relationships with foreign govem- goals and objectives (Figure 2.3). ments; Successful enforcement relies on frequent land and . Enter, if necessary, into memoranda of understanding water patrols, along with routine vessel inspections. Park (MOUs), cooperative enforcement agreements, andjoint rangers ensure that users are familiar with regulations. operation plans with other enforcement agencies as An interpretive style of enforcement seeks voluntary com- appropriate; pliance, primarily through education (e.g., rangers speak - Facilitate communication among agencies to avoid with users and distribute brochures in the field). This duplication of efforts; allows rangers to make direct, informative contact with - Promote cooperation, standardization of gear, and co- the Park users while conducting routine enforcement ac- ordination of limited resources such as vessels, radios, tivities. In addition, rangers are called upon to give pre- radio frequencies and training; and, sentations both on site and within the community. * Promote training and deputation among enforcement In Montego Bay, the success of enforcement efforts agencies. also depends on how well the enforcement bodies are co- ordinated. Because of limited resources, current enforce- 2. Community involvement strategies to: ment assets must be targeted and used in an efficient and * Encourage public involvement through site specific directed effort to be effective. Agreements among NGOs interpretive patrols by volunteer groups; and government organizations in the Park service, Coast * Involve Jamaican Defence Forces-Coast Guard, Marine Guard, Fisheries Division, and Wildlife Division are be- Police, resort patrols, charter boats, Fisheries Division, ing established to ensure a cooperative and integrated fishing organizations and game wardens in promoting enforcement operation. In addition, local residents and compliance with Park regulations; frequent Park users are assisting by detecting and report- * Maintain an active relationship with citizen groups in- ing violations. terested in compliance with Park regulations; * Conduct community outreach programs to encourage Montego Bay Marine Park compliance with Park regulation and citizen involve- Enforcement Goal and Objectives ment in reporting violations; and, The goal of enforcement in the Park is to protect the re- * Establish a volunteer ranger program and train and en- sources by achieving full compliance with all applicable gage the volunteer services in enforcement. laws. Effective enforcement of these laws, which seek protection ofthe natural, cultural, and historical resources within the Park, is required. The principal objectives * Emphasize education as a tool to achieve compliance associated with Park enforcement include: with legislation; Increasing the p-ublic's understanding of why it is im- * Promote voluntary compliance and stewardship by the portant to comply with Park regulations; general public through specific outreach programs re- portant ~~~~~~~~~~~garding enforcement of Park regulations; *•Achieving voluntary compliance with applicable laws; gadn enocmn of Pakrgltos a, p * Train user groups about regulations and procedures for and, reporting violations (e.g., witness statements forms); * Promoting public stewardship of the marine resources and, through interpretive enforcement efforts. * Identify major user groups and develop and disseminate The mechanisms for accomplishing these goals include educational material through semi-annual meetings and the following. workshops. 40 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling 4. Operational strategies to: * Membership. A passive membership campaign has * Maintain an investigative capability to ensure quick been organized and will begin with the distribution of response to purposeful unlawful acts; the first newsletter. * Develop and maintain the capability to effectively * Newspaper articles and press releases. Currently, the respond to violations of the Park regulations and to Education Coordinator submits weekly newspaper emergencies; articles andpress releases to regional and national news- * Establish an enforcement advisory committee consist- papers. ing of relevant law enforcement organizations; and, * Develop enforcement operation plans that identify spe- Research and Monitoring Strategies and Activities cific enforcement strategies and priorities, and outline Research and monitoring are critical to achieving the the best means of achieving them. Park's primary goal of resource protection. The Park's ecosystem is diverse and complex, and many of its pro- Public Relations Strategies and Activities cesses and their interrelationships are not well known. Community involvement and support are the centerpiece Also, while many resource impacts are obvious and se- of the Montego Bay Marine Park's success. Historically, vere, they are often not documented or quantified. The the Park has had tremendous support from certain aspects causes of impacts may be even less clear or completely of the Montego Bay community. The Public Relations unknown. The purpose of research and monitoring is to Action Plan seeks to strengthen support in traditional sec- establish a baseline of information on the resource and tors and expand into sectors where Park support has tra- the various components of the ecosystem and how they ditionally been weak. The Public Relations Action Plan interact. In this way, research and monitoring can ensure will focus on Park identity issues, membership strategies, the effective implementation of management strategies newsletter distribution and media campaigns (Table 2.3). using the best available scientific information. Research and monitoring activities must focus on Montego Bay Marine Park fundamental processes and specific management driven Public Relations Goals and Objectives topics (Tables 2.4a and 2.4b). Information generated from The Montego Bay Marine Park seeks to maximize com- such activities will be used to: munity support for the Park and other areas of valuable . Provide a means to evaluate the effectiveness of the natural heritage by sensitizing the community to various Park; aspects of efforts to preserve the environment. The goals . Provide a means to distinguish between the effects of are designed to maximize awareness of the Park and its human activities and natural variability; regulations and community involvement in the Park. * Develop hypotheses conceming causal relationships Goals include: which can then be investigated; * Creating a strong identity for the Park and its staff; * Evaluate management actions; and, * Establishing a membership program; and, * Verify and validate quantitative predictive models used * Increasing community participation, awareness, and to evaluate and select management actions. support for Park programs. Research and monitoring efforts in the Park must be The Park will meet the above goals by accomplishing focused on priority issues, and various symposia and the following objectives: reports (i.e., coral reef modeling workshops and rapid * Providing the staff with uniforms; ecological assessments; see Sullivan and Chiappone 1994; * Creating a new Park logo; Chapter 13) have helped to define those issues. Park * Establishing a passive membership; management will work to improve and enhance the * Maintaining a quarterly newsletter; and, funding, focus and quality of research and monitoring, * Establishing media campaigns. as well as the free exchange and discussion of research and monitoring information. It will influence research Existing Public Relations Programs and monitoring by establishing priorities, encouraging The following programs are currently being operated by open communications among researchers and managers, the Montego Bay Marine Park: and allowing Park staff to work closely with researchers * New staff uniforms. Marine Park staff was recently to accomplish mutual goals. outfitted with new uniforms designed to enhance the Both research and monitoring activities are included image of and respect for the Park. in this discussion of local needs for management because Local Needs and Interventions for Management of Coral Reefs in the Developing TropicalAmericas 41 they employ similar methods, are often conducted by the * Research funding should be sufficient, predictable and same people and agencies, and must be linked to one competitive; another. Research is goal orientated with well-defined, * Research permitting should be coordinated among agen- testable hypotheses, and is of finite duration. Monitoring cies; involves systematic long-term data collection and analy- * Management goals and objectives should be based on sis to measure the state ofthe resource and detect changes sound science; and, over time. Detecting such changes can prompt manage- * Sites protected from disturbance must be designed for ment decisions, can be used to evaluate the success of sustained ecological research. management strategies, or to focus research on determin- Existing Research and Monitoring Programs ing the reason for the change. Much research has been done in the Montego Bay Marine Montego Bay Marine Park Park. Research is conducted by many groups, including Research and Monitoring Goals and Objectives local and federal agencies, public and private universities, The primary goal of a research and monitoring program private research foundations, environmental organizations, is to provide the knowledge necessary to make informed and independent researchers. While productive, research decisions to protect the biological diversity and natural efforts are driven by diverse goals, vary in available re- ecosystem processes within the Park. Park goals include: sources and quality, and do not effectively share results. * Identification of priority areas for research; Leading research groups include The Nature Conservancy * Establishment of an ecological monitoring program; (rapid ecological assessment; Sullivan and Chiappone 'ee n o1994), the United Kingdom Department for Intemational . Development of standards based on biological mon- Dvlpet(eti n ihsre;Wlim n itoring or assessment to ensure the protection and res- Development (benthic and fish survey; Williams and toration of water quality, coral reefs and other marine Polunin 1999), the NRCA in conjunction with the Park resources; (assessment of the Park's impacts on local fishers; * Establishment of a comprehensive water quality moni- Nicholson 1994), Harvard and Radcliff College (benthic toring program to determine the sources of pollution survey and water nutrient analysis; Hitchman 1997), and and evaluate the results of pollution reduction efforts; the World Bank, along with various consulting firns, uni- * Evaluation of progress in achieving water quality stan- versities, and government organizations (see other con- dards and protecting and restoring the Park's coral reefs tributions to this publication). and living marine resources; A number of monitoring activities are occurring in or * Establishment of strong communication and coopera- near the Park. Specifically, these include Montego Bay tion between the scientific community and resource water quality monitoring (National Water Commission managers; and Louis Berger International Inc.), fisheries catch and * Coordination of research efforts to achieve the most effort data collection (Fisheries Division), and visual sur- beneficial results; and, veys of fish populations (Montego Bay Marine Park). * Promotion of public awareness and resource steward- ship. Volunteer Strategies and Activities To achieve these goals, the following objectives must Volunteer activities and programs are decisive to the be accomplished: success of the Montego Bay Marine Park (Table 2.5). * The Park program's role in research and monitoring Available to implement a variety of strategy components, efforts must be well-defined; volunteers are seen as a valuable human resource. In ad- * The Park and regional ecosystem must be understood dition to supporting management activities in the Park, and managed in a holistic manner; the volunteer program will also coordinate assistance in * Managers, educators, and researchers must commu- other Park operations, mainly in the areas of enforcement, nicate effectively regarding issues and the results of education and research. studies; The volunteer program is the focal point for deter- * Data and other information should be shared among mining the timing, source, type and degree of volunteer researchers and managers and should be easily acces- assistance provided for each Park strategy. The program sible; is used to develop an organized method for providing * Multi-agency research efforts should be coordinated for volunteer assistance to the various public and private in- the greatest efficiency, including the definition of com- stitutions involved in implementing strategies within the mon priorities; Park. Accordingly, volunteer efforts are planned and 42 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling deliberate actions designed to accomplish specific man- support, vessel and vehicle maintenance, underwater agement objectives. Each volunteer receives a handbook clean-up efforts, data entry and data base development, that provides information regarding his or her role while festival and special booth interpretive activities, mooring assisting the Park. The handbook includes all relevant buoy installation and maintenance, and a variety of other documentation for monitoring the volunteer program's Park projects. In addition, they act as visiting group lead- impact on attaining the Park's overall management plan ers, boat captains and on-water interpreters. Based on the objectives. success of these existing programs, it is expected that The success of the volunteer program is dependent on volunteers will be an integral part of the Montego Bay the involvement of the local and national community and Marine Park success. the diversity of that involvement. Volunteers are recruited The Park's volunteer coordinator is currently work- for the program and encouraged to participate in continu- ing with Park management to establish a framework for ing recruiting efforts. Diversity among volunteers will implementing education and outreach, research and mon- be encouraged and emphasized in the recruiting efforts. itoring, and other management strategies with a volun- This is to ensure that volunteers will be available to assist teer component. Volunteers are also visiting business in the various programs where special technical skills are and other sites in Montego Bay to determine their inter- required. For example, volunteers that are certified divers est in displaying Park materials, interviewing businesses may be asked to be "buddy divers", boat owners may be about their knowledge of the Park program, and develop- asked to help implement certain on-water activities, and ing a list of questions commonly asked about the Park. volunteers with a science background may be asked to Existing volunteer programs that contribute to Park man- assist with the research and monitoring programs. agement but are not specific Park programs include boat and marina surveys and the monitoring of corals, rocky VoluntegrProgBaymari ParkandObjectives intertidal areas, sponges, algae, mangroves and water VWolunteer Program Goals and Ob.jectives quaity quality. The Park's volunteer program goal is to provide a mecha- In addition to these activities, the volunteer program nism for involving the community in a variety of Park is currently being developed further. It is a cooperative activities. Specific objectives include: effort between the Park and the local dive community * Support efforts to improve public education and aware- using their expertise to develop a more comprehensive ness about the Park; training program that will lead to improvements in en- * Provide information to Park managers to allow them to vironmental monitoring techniques. Programs currently make more informed decisions; and, being considered would focus on fish identification, arti- * Develop a strategy to target the recruitment of volun- ficial reef monitoring and reef clean-ups. teers. The Park volunteer program strategy to target the Public-Private Partnerships for recruitment of volunteers proposes approaches to gen- Water Pollution Prevention and Management erate interest in the program; explore sources to recruit The Montego Bay Marine Park Trust, in partnership with from community groups, churches, neighborhood asso- various public entities, is in the process of implementing ciations, and other volunteer groups and government a variety of low cost and effective programs ("soft inter- agencies; encourage schools to start nature clubs from ventions") to mitigate water pollution impacts to the coral which volunteers may be recruited; and explore ways to reef ecosystem (Table 2.6). These interventions form the appeal to potential volunteers with a diversity of inter- basis of a comprehensive water quality management pro- ests and skills. The strategy will provide the new volun- gram for the Park. teers training, incentives and recognition. In doing so, the Park hopes to help keep volunteers involved and in- terested by providing them with a sense of stewardship Caught in the Poverty Cycle and responsibility. Implementing the necessary management measures to Existing Volunteer Programs ensure a healthy coral reef ecosystem will not be quick The Park has a history of using volunteers to assist with or easy. In about five years, 60% of the population in activities ranging from beach clean-ups and mangrove tree Jamaica will reside in urban areas, such as Montego Bay, planting sessions, to maintenance tasks and public edu- and a third will be located in squatter communities not cation programs. Volunteers currently help with office served by adequate household waste disposal (Huber and Local Needs and Interventions for Management of Coral Reefs in the Developing Tropical Americas 43 Jameson 1998c). Only 25% of the country's households has led to poor earnings by local restaurants, sidewalk are connected to sewer systems, and even where such vendors and shops. The non-all-inclusive accommoda- connections exist, wastewater treatment is inadequate tions import less and employ more people per dollar of (Huber and Jameson 1998c). The lack of a comprehen- revenue than the all-inclusives (OAS 1994). For the en- sive waste management policy and clear lines of govern- tire tourism industry in 1997, the percentage of revenue ment responsibility delay implementation of effective remaining in Jamaica is about 43% (Johnson 1998). waste management. The hotel industry should be a sector where linkages Taking all factors together, tourism is the largest eco- between economic development and environmental pro- nomic engine in Jamaica today. In 1992, Jamaica received tection can enhance the well-being of the local commu- US$1,009.1 million in foreign exchange earnings (Johnson nity and maintain options for present and future gen- 1998). Government direct revenues from tourism for 1992 erations. Unfortunately this is not the case and living were US$89.87 million against expenditures of US$58.57 conditions in Montego Bay are eroding. Over one third million. Tourism depends on the quality of the natural of Jamaicans live below the poverty line and many sur- environment and, at the same time, can support protection vive on remittances from 4.8 million Jamaicans living of the environment. However, in Montego Bay, tourism abroad. Women's unemployment rate was more than impacts itself, local residents and water quality (Taylor twice as high as men's but this has changed. Female 1993). The tourism industry makes many demands on the unemployment is still higher but decreasing faster, and marine environment such as pressure on the beaches, use more young men are unemployed. People flock to the of precious resources for craft items, use of wetlands and tourist centers for jobs. However, upon arrival, they find outfalls in the sea for waste disposal, removal of seagrass there is no affordable housing provided at these loca- for swinuning beaches and blocking of visual and public tions and, therefore, squatter communities are expanding. access to the coast. Other negative environmental exter- Visitor harassment is increasing as more people move nalities, which have all been slowly working together to withoutjobs from the countryside to tourism centers. The reduce the charm and quality of Montego Bay as a tourist adult and juvenile crime rate is high and illegal spear fish- destination, include upland sources ofpollutants and soils ing (mainly for subsistence) has helped to remove all washing down into coastal ecosystems from squatter breeding size fish from snorkel depth waters in the Park. settlements originating from increased tourist-based em- Funding from the Government of Jamaica is totally in- ployment; overpumping and contamination of aquifers and adequate to restore marine life. Gustavson (1998; Chap- aquifer recharge areas; disappearing beaches due to en- ter 5) estimates that the net present value of local uses of croachment of structures and groynes; foreclosed public the marine Park is US$489 (US$420 million for tourism, access and recreational opportunities in the coastal zone; US$4.75 million for fisheries, and US$65 million for threatened artisanal and small scale commercial fisheries waterfront land storm protection) but government only from over harvesting; and degraded marine ecosystems. contributed US$52,000 in 1997 (and less in 1998) to the The result is reduced water quality, beach erosion, flood- marine Park budget. Government funds are scarce when ing and coral reef die back that threaten the sustainability 56% of GNP goes to pay off IMF and other foreign of the tourist industry-an industry which is the most debts incurred as a consequence of the 1973 OPEC crisis. important foreign exchange earner in Jamaica. Therefore, unless the tourism sector becomes more pro- While Montego Bay has the potential to create vast active and puts money into the environment, the Montego wealth and has had a measurable degree of success to date, Bay Marine Park Trust will have to go overseas or di- little of this wealth has filtered down to the residents. rectly to the 1.2 million annual visitors for assistance. All-inclusive hotels generate the largest amount of rev- Population growth, without providing adequate housing enue but their impact on the economy is smaller per dollar and water, waste management, roads, schools and other of revenue than other accommodation subsectors (OAS services, is resulting in a vicious cycle of poverty related 1994). For 1997 in Jamaica, Johnson (1998) estimates environmental degradation. It is likely that human im- that the all-inclusive hotels attracted about 40% of all stop- pacts will continue to prolong the recovery period of coral over visitors and captured about 60% of the total accom- reef communities. modation revenues. Unfortunately, only about 23% of this In recent months, the economic environment has wors- revenue stays in Jamaica (Johnson 1998). The trend to- ened. Inflation is down and interest rates are falling but wards the all-inclusive concept is increasing. Guests are bankruptcies and emigration are rising. Banks are repos- discouraged from leaving the all-inclusive hotel property sessing small hotels and other businesses. Two of the because of harassment and crime. Over recent years, this five independent dive shops closed recently. 44 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling Breaking the Cycle information for staff and guests who were largely igno- rant of Park regulations. Early Park management was by central government and Five guiding principles emerged (Bunce and Gustav- the style was classical based on the following model: son 1998a; Bunce et al. 1999; Chapter I1) which were science knows best, science informs regulations, regula- implemented effectively in the following ways. tions will be imposed, education will teach the children. In a society with low levels of education, high unemploy- . Inc ing us areness: ment and little discipline, the result has been low aware- E ness, low compliance, and public ignorance, apathy and ' Holding workshop with fishers to discuss issues; criticism. The Park was seen as a discrete scientific and/ * Appointing fishers liaison officers; or regulatory body that people did not understand and to * Attending fishers' meetings; which people did not pay much attention, with the excep- * Developing assistance for fishing improvement and tion that they expected the marine park to stop fishing alternatives; activities and clean up others' wastes. Staff were becom- * Maintaining hotel representation on management board; ing demoralized and defensive. In terms of economics, * Presenting to hoteliers, staff and guests; what rent was being captured was going to the private . Involving water sports operators in mooring buoy in- sector or the public purse and, while everyone claimed to stallation and maintenance; be supportive, the support was moral rather than finan- . Holding a photo exhibition and competition; cial. The Park depended on government for funds but . Turning the Park office into a resource centre, making the environment was always low on the list of national it more interesting, inviting and entertaining; priorities that had more pressing needs such as education, - Revamping web page to be more entertaining; poverty, unemployment and child welfare. * Involving divers in reef monitoring and fish counts; and, The Montego Bay Marine Park Trust had been dele- - Training user groups to educate tourists. gated management responsibility just over a year before the timing of the rapid socio-economic assessment of pri- 2. Promotion of conservation benefits: mary user groups (Bunce and Gustavson 1998a; Chapter * Starting an aggressive outreach program; 11), which was most helpful in informing a new manage- * Developing public relations literature to promote ben- ment plan, guiding policy and shifting management style. efits from the Park; The Park recognized the limitations of this assessment * Using economic values in presentations; but, although "rapid" and subject to debate and further - Promoting operators of approved uses; validation, provided useful feedback from users. What * Starting annual awards program; we learned from this study fell into two main categories- - Advocating responsible fishing methods; how the user groups felt about the Park, and the value Of . Identifying opportunities for eco-tourism; the Park to them. * Promoting financial savings from changing behavior; Awareness among some user groups was lower than and, the Park had previously recognized and reflected a need . Using computer program to demonstrate cause-effect for more information, not just in the formal school sys- of coral conservation in Montego Bay (COCOMO; see tem, but also to user groups and the general public. Opin- Chapter 10). ions varied along a spectrum ranging from unaware to 3. Increasing user involvement: apathetic to confrontational. The fishers were defensive *Listening to user issues to get support; towards Park enforcement personnel. The Park responded by becoming less authoritarian and listening more to their grolgsc problems and concerns about being singled out as the groups; main problem when land-based pollutants are not being Ireasn inve addressed. Park management is now offering practical projects; and, assistance in addressing their particular issues and needs and assisting them with advocacy. Water sports opera- 4. Promotion of the "community resource" concept: tors were supportive of Park objectives but critical of * Changing language in materials (e.g., be a sea fan; enforcement efforts. They wanted to become more in- national treasure and community resource; Mo Bay, volved in monitoring and wanted mooring buoys installed. My Bay; Wet, Wild and Wonderful); Tourism players were generally supportive but critical of Creating brochures, bumper stickers and posters; enforcement efforts to date. They also wanted more * Encouraging civic pride and sense of ownership; Local Needs and Interventions for Managementt of Coral Reefs in the Developing Tropical Americas 45 * Forging linkages (e.g., farmers and fishers; hotels and Management style is now based on a multi-disciplin- schools); ary team approach. Science recommends management * Involving the Chamber of Commerce and other groups interventions and monitors results. Regulations must be in projects; and, justifiable and promoted to all concerned to achieve com- * Participating in more community events. pliance rather than enforcement. Education goes "on the 5. Improving inter-sectoral coordination: road" and takes the message to the primary user groups, * Starting network with enforcement agencies; community at large and the general public. Regular in- * Sitting on local government committees; teraction with user groups was strengthened on issues such . Becoming agents forhas the system of permits, to collect fees and data to in- * Becoming agfferents frorp thgetheries Divisiform carrying capacity assessment. Outreach efforts show BIngluening differentgroupstogehers; the Park as a repository of useful information for the com- Influencing governmenst mnishters; munity, act as a conduit for information from abroad, * Gettng otes tassstishrs;central government and local government agencies, and * Bringing fishers into water sports and tourism; provide feedback from the community. The Park must * Holding regular meetings with tourism and develop- promote the importance of a healthy environment using ment agencies to address land-based issues; and, all available tools such as the internet, mass media and * Bringing private and public sectors together. community associations to improve public awareness and The data from the economic assessment (Gustavson change behavior. In terms of economics, we can now 1998; Chapter 5) gave management a good picture of the demonstrate that the marine environment supports the financial value of the Park to the primary user groups, economy with figures to "prove it". We can show that which was useful in designing implementation of a user the Park is of primary importance to the economic health fee system to be promulgated by government. The im- and welfare of the entire community, and can change the pressive figures added drama to public presentations in perception that Park management is a hindrance to devel- showing the importance of the Park. These figures are opment and oppressive to fishers. Now we can begin the also useful to justify budget requirements to government, real work to involve all sectors in understanding, taking which made an impression even though national budget ownership responsibility and moving away from the "trag- constraints prohibited adequate assistance. The data also edy of the commons" towards equitable use of resources. suggested areas with potential for generating revenue Only then will we have sustainable resource management through the other user groups as opposed to fees on direct and begin to attack the cycle of poverty. use, such as hotels, beach fees and mooring buoy fees. W3e're All on the Same Team Attitude Adjustment The local communities are the principle force behind the Management realized that a maj or attitude adjustment was need for reef conservation, standing to benefit consider- necessary. If problems are human made, solutions must ably by protection, but also being the principle cause of be as well. If solutions require change in behavior, then reef loss. Notwithstanding these threats, the natural areas the motivations that govern behavior must be understood. in Montego Bay remain in sufficient condition that, ifprop- Behavior is basically driven by the two opposing forces erly managed and rehabilitated, they will provide substan- of reward and punishment. Traditionally, punishment has tial opportunities for economic growth, poverty alleviation been used with less and less success. It is time to try and the maintenance of globally important biodiversity. incentives. Maslow defined an ascending hierarchy of However, given the economic trade-offs and local universal needs that drive the human spirit, but one must awareness of environmental issues, coral reef ecosystem start at the bottom and work up. So while universal, people preservation and associated water quality is presently seen (whether as individuals or in groups as nations) will be at as a luxury. Until public relations and education efforts different stages depending on their education and eco- take root and informedgovernmentpolicies andprograms nomic situation. Therefore, it is necessary to observe, dealing with pollution and poverty issues are enacted, coral assess and listen to what makes user groups "tick" before reef managers will continue to be caught in a downward making recommendations, as well as to consider the con- spiral of poverty that will defeat them. In any case, re- flicting perceptions and needs of different groups. Advo- source managers must demonstrate short-term economic cacy and negotiation between groups becomes important benefits from conservation. Long-term payoffs mean to success. The attitude adjustment had to start on the nothing in an economy where subsistence is of primary part of management itself. concern. Si < z W W W g E B E g $ 0 g E g | g ! | S DE= ! E | | | ffi R g g E i- g | | ! i! ! 11E E | | i _i I E | I __ I I | I _ 111 I R! I g g l g _ II: CREATING DECISION SUPPORT MODELS Chapter 3 Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Coral Reef Management and Protection: A Case Study of Curasao Frank Rijsberman and Susie Westmacott Resource Analysis, Delft, The Netherlands Curacao lies in the southern part of the Caribbean Sea Reef Research and Managemfent (Figure 3.1). It is one of the five islands making up the Netherlands Antilles, the others being Bonaire, St. The Curacao reefs have been well studied over the last Eustatius, St. Maarten and Saba. The total island area is 25 years in projects organized by or through the 444km2, with a length of 70km and a width varying from CARMABI Foundation in Curacao (e.g., Bak and 5km to 14km. The capital of the island, Willemstad, is Nieuwland 1995). Most of the research that has taken positioned in the center of the island around the Schottegat place has been very specialized. It has focused on many (Figure 3.1). This forms one ofthe largest natural harbors aspects of marine biology, but rarely on the functioning in the Caribbean Sea and is the center of the industrial of the reef as a whole. This is not as surprising as it may zone of Curacao. The main developments, both for hous- seem because coral reefs are extremely complex systems ing and resorts, are currently along the central southern made up of hundreds of species of marine life that in- coastline. Oostpunt is the largest privately owned sec- teract with each other in numerous ways. Where many tion of land on Curacao and, as a result, is currently un- biologists have worked for long periods to understand developed. Westpunt has been gradually developing since single species fisheries such as salmon, herring or ancho- the construction of a road that improved its accessibility; vies without having completely succeeded, it is not that however, it still remains relatively undeveloped. The ex- strange that coral reef biologists do not yet even have a posed north shore is also relatively undeveloped; this is generally accepted definition of coral reef health. Coral the site of the Brievengat industrial zone and the airport, reef research often focuses on the response of a single located at Hato. species to a well defined disturbance under relatively care- Most of the coral reefs of Curacao are in very good fully controlled conditions (e.g., Meesters et al. 1992; condition compared to many of the reefs in the Caribbean, Veghel 1994). although a stretch around the capital, Willemstad, has been From a perspective of coastal zone management, how- seriously impacted by human activities. While Curacao ever, the relevant questions relate to the response of the is still mostly dependent on its oil refinery, tourism is grow- reef system as a whole to a complex set of disturbances. ing rapidly as a source of income. There are many planned Will the planned tourist developments and the associated tourism development projects, and the potential for the wastewater discharges and artificial beaches have a sig- sector appears good, at least if the current quality of the nificant impact on the coral reef? A coral reef biologist coral reefs can be maintained. How can reef deteriora- might answer this question by saying that the reefs are tion, which has occurred in many other places around the already under stress and that no new development should Caribbean, be prevented? Should certain areas be set take place. A developer might answer this question by aside? What will it take to rehabilitate the reefs in the saying that the reefs of Curacao are still in relatively good Willemstad area, if that is at all possible? In 1995-96, a condition and that the economy of Curacao needs the research project was carried out to develop an approach employment generated by tourism. In fact, the opposite to answer these and similar questions. argument is also used-because the reef is already 50 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling WestpuntX f '.~~~~~~~~~~~~~Mxc Figure 3.1. Cur9ao showing its location within the Ca Brievengat < Bullenbaa~~i Ac ottegat Oostpunt Pi scadera baa i \anse Wtr \an Thel FVigure 3.1. Curaqao, showing its location within the Caribbean, degraded in certain locations, how can more development The Coral-Cura_cao Decision Support System in those locations possibly harm the reef significantly? Both sides are likely to be partly right, but the more subtle The approach chosen to achieve these objectives has been answer to the question of how much development is sus- develo a compurasee also Chapor syste tainblereqire: i)muc moe isigt ino te 'ncton- referred to as Coral-Curacao (see also Chapter 4 and the taiabl reuirs: ) much more insight into the function- c:ompanion CD-ROM). The two main innovatieeeet ing of the reef as a whole; and, ii) a consensus among copnnCDRM.Tetomiinvavelmns people involved concerning the quality of the reef that is in the approach are: i) the interactive, computer-based desiredor, invother words,i the impacts to the reef that are approach to decision support for integrated coastal zone desired or, in other words, the Impacts to the reef that are magentICM;ndiitheclialrsoe socially acceptable. management (ICZM); and, ii) the ecological response model for coral reef health based on fuzzy logic. The decision support system aspect of Coral-Curaqao Objective and Approach has the following characteristics: The objective of the research project reported here is to * It utilizes a graphics-based user interface that makes it develop an approach that will do two things, namely: easy for decision-makers or stakeholders to use; * Bring together the available knowledge in marine biol- * It utilizes a case study-based (i.e., location specific) ogy, economics and engineering to determine whether approach, which has the advantage of demonstration human use of the coastal zone will significantly affect through realistic examples rather than abstract theory; the health of the coral reef system and what the most * It guides users through a generic approach to ICZM cost-effective manner is to prevent impacts on coral reef that structures the development, analysis and evalua- health; and, tion of coastal zone management strategies; * Provide a means to engage the various stakeholders in * It is interactive (i.e., it allows user input with respect to a discussion to determine what sustainable development setting of objectives and criteria, definition of scenarios, of the coastal zone means for them and, therefore, what selection of measures and strategies, and evaluation of levels of reef health are socially desirable. impact); and, Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Coral Reef Management and Protection: A Case Study of Cura9ao 51 It demonstrates inter-sectoral linkages and facilitates can be carried out with this model. Actual use of the communication among stakeholder groups. model will require the identification of the scenarios and The fuzzy logic based response model for coral reef strategies in cooperation with the various coastal zone health has the following characteristics: managers in Curacao. The first scenario (the reference * The model is an expert system, based on fuzzy logic, scenario) focuses on the current situation with little new that does not attempt to describe the behavior of the investment, population growth as in the past, and a system deterministically (i.e., through equations that stagnating economy. Development is centered near describe the behavior of the reef as a fumction of a set Willemstad. The second scenario (the growth scenario) of driving variables and parameters), but simply uses a assumes 3% annual growth in the economy, particularly "black box" approach to describe reef behavior; through the tourism sector. Two variations are made in * The model encapsulates and synthesizes expert knowl- this scenario: i) "growth-west", where a significant por- edge into a large number of decision rules that are sub- tion of residential and tourism development has been sequently used to "predict" reef behavior; planned west of Willemstad and the east has been left * The model brings together a large amount of varied largely undeveloped; and, ii) "growth-east", where growth experience and expertise, gained from many different concentrates more on the area east of Willemstad with at sources, and applies it to the problem at hand; and, least one major hotel in Oostpunt. For each of these * The response model for Curacao links the concentra- three scenarios, the impacts on the reefs have been ana- tions of nutrients (i.e., nitrogen and phosphorus) and lyzed and example environmental strategies have been sediment over the reef to future values for coral reef developed to see how impacts could be prevented and at health (defined by coral cover and relative species di- what cost. versity) under various reef conditions (i.e., current reef It is intended that through further development and health, available substrate and maximum colony size). Teeewas origi- training with the model, it can be used in the development The development of the fuzzy logic model was orica of coastal zone management plans. This will involve the nally based on the parallel model developed for Jamaica coastal zone decision-makers to identify potential sce- (Ridgley and Dollar 1996; Chapter 8). Subsequent revi- narios and formulate the environmental strategies. It will sions of both models show differences inthe development also involve a degree of cooperation and interaction be- due to the different local situations The case study for tween the different stakeholder groups, leading to the the Maldives takes a more focused look at physical dam- eventual formulation of alternative coastal zone man- age (Meesters and Westmacott 1996; Chapter 4). agement plans. Further information regarding the devel- opment of the Coral-Curacao model can be found in Development of Scenarios and Meesters (1995), Meesters et al. (1996a), Rijsberman et Environmental Strategies al. (1995a), Westmacott et al. (1995), and Rijsberman The first use of Coral-Curacao is to analyze the impact of and Westmacott (1996). alternative development scenarios for Curacao on coral reef health, as well as on a number of other economic, environmental and social criteria. The second use is to Description of Coral-Curaqao determine the cost-effectiveness of alternative environ- mental and institutional measures to prevent impacts on The approach adopted in the Coral-Curacao model is based coral reef health. on cost-effectiveness analysis of coral reef health in an The development scenarios can be defined by the user ICZM framework. The main components of the decision through a combination of overall island-wide assumptions support system are a user interface, economic activity regarding expected economic growth, population growth, model, water quality model, and ecological response growth in expected tourist arrivals in Curacao (the de- model (Figure 3.2). The user provides inputs concerning mand for tourism), and the discount rate (to determine economic development scenarios and environmental man- the present value of future costs and benefits). In addi- agement strategies through the user interface. The eco- tion, the user can provide detailed assumptions on the pre- nomic activity model translates these assumptions and ferred location of newly constructed or expanded hotels, choices into pollutant loadings along the coast and keeps apartments and residential developments, and new harbor track of a number of economic parameters (i.e., GDP per developments. capita, employment, and environmental costs and invest- Three example development scenarios are reported ments). The base year for Coral-Curacao is 1995 and in this chapter. They illustrate the types of analyses that projections are made over 10 years to 2005. 52 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support AModeling User then determines the resulting reef health (i.e., cover and diversity) for the six coastal sections. The outputs of the economic activity, water quality and ecological response models are shown to the user through tables and graphs Interface in the user interface, along with several criteria that the user is asked to evaluate through user input (i.e., social user- c acceptability and financial feasibility ofthe scenarios and defined effectiveness strategies). strategiess and scenarios Cost-Effectiveness Antalysis Economic Water Ecological CZM In theory, if all benefits provided by coral reefs could be model quality response indicators determined quantitatively and if all costs of protecting model model coral reefs from pollution or overuse could be enumer- ated, then one could determine the "optimal" level of investment in coral reef protection and management. Figure 3.2. Structure of the Coral-Curagao Deternination of the social and economic benefits pro- decision support system. vided by coral reef ecosystems is the subject of subse- quent chapters. Although significant progress has been The water quality model determines the water quality made in benefit valuation, it remains notoriously difficult, that corresponds with the pollutant loadings for six see- particularly for complex systems such as coral reefs. tions along the southern coast of Curacao (Figure 3.3). The next best alternative would be to determine what Water quality is defined in termns of concentrations of E. level of coral reef health is socially desirable (a proce- coli and in terms of nutrient (i.e., nitrogen and phospho- dure similar to determining water quality standards, for rus) concentrations. Sediment impacts on the reefs are instance) and then to analyze what the least expensive, or based on the locations and material of the artificial most cost-effective, manner is to provide the desired level beaches, as well as the suspended material discharged by of reef health. This is referred to as cost-effectiveness the land-based activities. The ecological response model analysis. N Westpunt k At ~~~~~~~~~~~~Brievengat 6 /-....Bullenbaai Schottegat Oostpunt / St. MarS .t XV~~~~~~~~iemstad ^ 5 / i n spaanse Water / 4 | Pisc erabaai Jan Thiel 3 2 1 Figure 3.3. Coastal section divisions of Curaqao utilized in the model. Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Coral Reef Management and Protection: A Case Study of Curacao 53 In the version of Coral-Curagao presented here, no at- interface is based mostly on graphic information to pro- tempts are made to quantify the benefits of having a healthy vide users with a quick overview with minimal text. The reef. The basis for decision-making with Coral-Curaqao structure of the interface's main menu guides the user is, therefore, a form of cost-effectiveness analysis. An through the steps of the ICZM framework for analysis, as associated problem is then how to determine the level of outlined above, and thereby structures the user's thinking socially desirable reefhealth. The socially desirable level about the problems at hand. of reef health has to be decided by the stakeholders. How- A major characteristic of the interface is that it is truly ever, a model such as Coral-Curagao can facilitate the interactive. Many recent multimedia tools are called in- discussion among stakeholders conceming these issues. teractive but allow the user no more interaction than the For reference purposes, what is required to maintain the order in which the screens are observed. Coral-Curacao current level of reef health can be analyzed. Whether this allows the user, as do similar decision support system tools is either necessary, or sufficient, remains a question that in the "COSMO family", to input his or her own assump- has to be answered by, in this case, the people of Cura9ao. tions or preferences about scenarios and strategies, and examine the consequences. The development scenarios The ICZM Framework for Analysis input screens in Coral-Curacao provide the user with the opportunity to define a likely, or desirable, development The main structure ofthe coastal zone management analy- path for the economy, with particular focus on develop- sis in Coral-Curacao follows the structure of a generic ment of the coastal zone. The user can provide detailed framework for analysis that has been developed over the definitions of hotel, apartment, residential, artificial beach last 10 to 15 years (Bower et al. 1994; Resource Analysis and harbor development projects in pre-defmed locations and Delft Hydraulics 1993; Rijsberman and Koudstaal along the coast. 1989; Westmacott 1995). Practical applications of this approach to coastal zone management issues are given by, for instance, Baarse and Rijsberman (1986, 1987) and The Economic Activity Model Ridgley and Rijsberman (1992). Following this fraine- The main purpose of the economic activity model is to work, the main steps in an ICZM analysis within Coral- determine the pollutant loadings resulting from as- Curacao are as follows: sumptions about economic development combined with • Problem identification; environmental strategies, as well as the costs of the envi- • Definition of objectives and criteria as yardsticks to ronmental measures taken to reduce those pollutant load- measure fulfillment of objectives; ings. The economic activities distinguished in Coral- * Definition of scenarios for uncertain, exogenous devel- Curacao are tourism, harbors and shipping, manufactur- opments; ing, fisheries, services and "other" (i.e., the rest of GDP), * Definition of management strategies in terms of their the oil refinery, and residences. Tourism, harbors and ship- component measures; ping, and fisheries are considered to be the coastal zone * Analysis of the impacts of the strategies in terms of the related activities, in the sense that they depend directly criteria; and, on the coastal zone. Manufacturing, the oil refinery, and * Evaluation and selection of the most desirable strategy. residences: ire considered separately from the rest of the economy b_cause of their potential impact on the coastal The Decision Support System User Interface zone thro igh discharges of pollutants. There is no agri- culture to speak of in Curacao with significant influences The decision support system developed for Curagao has on the coastal zone. a user interface of the type developed in 1993 for the Pollutant loadings are based on sectoral outputs multi- coastal zone management training tools COSMO and plied by an emission factor per unit of output (in mone- CORONA (Resource Analysis and CZM Centre 1994; tary terms) for all sectors except the oil refinery, residences Rijsberman et al. 1 995b). It has been shown in a series and tourism. The base loadings produced by the economic of workshops and seminars that this type of interface is activities can be reduced through end-of-pipe treatment. easily accessible for specialists from various disciplines This yields the final loadings that are discharged. For as well as policy-makers, including those with minimal residences, the loadings are based on emission factors per or no computer experience or scientific background. The capita. For tourism, the loadings are based on the number interface attempts to bridge the communication gap be- oftourist nights. For the oil refinery, the loadings are based tween policy-makers and coastal zone specialists. The on emission factors multiplied by output in cubic metres 54 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling of oil produced. The steps in the economic activity model actual sites and locations (approximately 20 in total) along are described in the following sections. the coast are based on projects proposed by developers. This has the advantage of providing a better fit to the land Step 1-Activity Levels use planning discussions and the public debate about proj- The total GDP in 2005 (in constant 1995 dollars), except ects that focus on specific hotel projects on specific beach for the tourism sector, is determined by an overall assump- or bay sites. This is intended to increase the acceptance tion of the annual economic growth (scenario variable). and use of the decision support system for Curacao. The sectoral output of tourism is determined by the low- est of: i) projected tourism demand (scenario variable); Step 3-Base Pollutant Loadings and, ii) hotel capacity, as influenced by hotel construc- The activity levels (sectoral GDP shares and number of tion projects. The size of the population in 2005 is based houses in 2005) multiplied by the emission factors gen- on an assumption for annual population growth (scenario erate base pollutant loadings. For each of the sectors, variable). emission coefficients have been defined for nitrates (N), phosphates (P) and sediment (total suspended solids or Step 2-Sectoral Shares and Spatial Distribution TSS; see Rijsberman and Westmacott 1996). The sectoral share of the GDP (except tourism) can be modified by the user through assuming that several in- Step 4-Final Pollutant Loadings vestment projects (in harbors and manufacturing) take (Wastewater Treatment) place. The overall growth rate is not affected by these In Coral-Cura9ao, the user specifies wastewater treatment investments; it is in fact assumed that the investments are options for residential and tourism sector discharges. The shifts within an overall investment portfolio. The addi- following options are available: tional increase in the sectoral GDP due to the investment - No treatment. The base load is discharged directly project is calculated as an assumed return on investment. into the near-shore (septic tanks are assumed to play a The GDP of the other sectors (harbors, manufacturing, marginal role). services and "other") are reduced by the same total amount, . On-site treatmentfor hotels and apartments. The treated distributed proportional to their 1995 share of GDP. The final load is discharged into the near-shore (if there is investment projects, therefore, do not affect overall out- an outfall to move the discharge off the beach, it is as- put, GDP or GDP per capita, but they can affect pollutant sumed not to take the discharge beyond the reef area). loadings because of the difference in emission coefficients * Sewage system connected to an ocean outfall. This is per sector. Construction of housing and hotels is speci- assumed to bring the discharge beyond the reef area. fied by the user and spatially distributed over six sections * Sewage system connected to a sewage treatment plant. along the coast. The location of other sectoral activities There is subsequent discharge on the near-shore (no (harbors, refinery, manufacturing, services and "other"), outfall or a short, near-shore outfall). and consequent location of the discharges, is fixed in the * Sewage system connected to a sewage treatment plant model based on their current location. In short, the over- with outfall. There is subsequent discharge through an all GDP and sectoral shares are determined by assump- ocean outfall beyond the reef. tions on overall economic growth and tourism demand * Sewage system for transport to a neighboring section. together with assumptions on investment projects in har- Wastewater is removed completely from this section bors, manufacturing, hotel construction, residence con- and subsequent discharge depends on treatment level struction, and artificial beach construction. Through the and outfall construction in the neighboring section. spatial distribution of, particularly, housing and hotels, For the refinery, manufacturing, harbors and shipping, the user specifies land use scenarios for the island. Such and services and "other" sectors, the user specifies base scenarios can determine development and conservation load reduction percentages directly. It is left undefined areas on the island (e.g., following ideas as presented in whether these reductions are the result of improved pro- an approved island-wide development plan). The impact cesses (i.e., reduced discharge coefficients) or end-of-pipe of such development choices on the reef is shown with treatment. Only rough estimates of costs are available the help of Coral-Curacao. for these measures (see Step 6 below). Pollutant loadings The Coral-Curacao user can actually define construc- (sediment discharge) from artificial beaches can be re- tion projects (houses, hotels, apartments, artificial beaches) duced by the use of coarser, more expensive types of cal- in more detail than the six sections used for the water careous sand. Sediment from artificial beaches is dealt quality and coral reef computations. In the interface, the with directly in the water quality model. Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Coral Reef Management and Protection: A Case Study of Curaf ao 55 Step 5-Other Environmental Management Measures as the financial and political feasibility of strategies (the The model also keeps track of assumptions on several latter two being user defined). other environmental management options (i.e., environ- mental awareness raising programs, establishment of a The Water Quality Model marine park, and increased inter-sectoral coordination). A simple water quality model has been formulated to deter- These are not assumed to modify loadings directly, but to increase the social acceptability and financial feasibility p hne water quality (i.e., concentrations of nitrates and of the oter enviromental inestments.phosphates) in six sections along the coast (Figure 3.3). The model is driven by the average east to west current Step 6-Environmental Costs parallel to the coastline and takes into account the effects of tidal mixing (diffusion) perpendicular to the coastline, The model aes The cos ofnonentah manae- as well as decay of the pollutant materials within each of ment strategies. The major component of this is waste- the six sections. This type of simple model is a relatively waterstreatment costs of., T csote e oitfh good approximation for a straight coastline with high investment costs of: lateral velocities compared to the tidal velocities. As this * On-site treatment systems for hotels and apartments; is the case for Curacao, this type of model was used to • Construction of sewage systems; provide approximate indications of water quality under * Construction of treatment plants; and, average conditions in the six sections. Precise water qual- * Construction of outfalls, ity determination for specified times and locations are not possible with this type of model, but, bearing in mind the All investment costs are assumed to occur in year one level of accuracy of the ecological response model, this is and are not discounted. Annual costs of maintenance not considered to be a major drawback. and operation are discounted (with a user-specified dis- For accurate estimates of water quality along beaches, count rate) to year one and added to the investment costs the model that has been used is not very appropriate and to obtain total costs. Other costs taken into account are: could be improved. Estimates of sediment concentrations * Additional cost of using calcareous sand for artificial (in terms of low, medium and high, as required by the beaches (3,500 NAF m- yr1 additional investment costs ecological response model) have been based on the loca- and 500 NAF mn' yr' additional maintenance costs); tion and composition (in terms of grain size) of artificial * Cost of establishment and operation of a marine park beaches. The water quality model is valid for the areas of (user defined); reef flat. This is the part of the reef that is taken into * Cost of environmental awareness programs (user de- account in the Coral-Curacao model (see next section). fined); If the model were to consider the reef slope then other * Cost of reducing discharges from manufacturing (esti- aspects, such as the influence of mixing with ocean cur- mate); and, rents, would need to be considered. * Cost of reducing discharges from the refinery (estimate). The Coral Reef Ecological Response Model The costs of the environmental management strategies are used for the analysis of cost-effectiveness of coral reef An important component of the Coral-Curacao modeling protection measures, where the effectiveness of a strategy framework is an ecological response model to predict the is measured as the difference in reef health (either cover impact of economic development on reef health. Reef or diversity) as determined by the ecological response health, defined as coral cover and relative species diver- model. sity, is used as the main indicator of the status of the ma- rine ecosystem (i.e., the model outputs). The ecological Step 7-Other Indicators response model has been designed to predict the impacts The model also tracks several other parameters that are of the most significant pollutants on the reef flat. The not used for the cost-effectiveness analysis. These do, reef flat has been selected because the majority of research however, provide the user with information about the and available information is based on this zone of the reef. economy under the given assumptions for economic This may result in a different level of impact than if the growth, sectoral investments, and environmental man- reef slope was also considered. The reef flat may be the agement strategies. These parameters relate mainly to first area to be affected from land-based pollution and GDP, GDP per capita, GDP of coastal activities, total storms, for example. The reef slope is the area most employment, and employment in coastal activities, as well visited by recreational divers and potentially providing 56 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling shelter and food for fish. However, on the grounds of Case Studies for Curaqao data and knowledge availability, only the reef flat is in- cluded in this model. We now examine how the Coral-Curacao decision sup- The most significant pollutants in Curacao have been port system can be used in the analysis of alternatives for identified as nutrient enrichment from the discharge of coral reef management under different economic devel- wastewater of land-based activities (i.e., sewage and in- opment scenarios. As stated previously, formulation of dustrial wastewater, and increased sediment concentra- scenarios and strategies for both the economic develop- tions that result from artificial beaches). There are other ment and the environmental protection measures should influences on reef health (e.g., consequences of anchor- eventually be done in conjunction with the stakeholders ing, fishing or direct diver related impacts), but these have in the region. Cooperation with the stakeholders on the been evaluated to be relatively small in the current Curacao island will enable a number of constraints and criteria to context compared to the influence of nutrients and sedi- be identified that are likely to enter into decisions on reef ment. The main reef characteristics that influence how management. The cases formulated in this chapter should the inputs of nutrients and sediment affect reef health that be seen as examples of the how the Coral-Curaqao deci- have been accounted for in the model are: i) available sion support system can potentially be used. The reader substratum; ii) maximum colony size; iii) coral cover; is encouraged to explore the model through use of the and, iv) diversity. The methodology for the ecological CD-ROM included with this publication. response model has been developed by Ridgley and Dol- lar (1996) and has been modified and tested for Curacao Development Scenarios conditions. The Cura9ao ecological response model has been developed as part of this project and is described in As previously described, the following example economic detail in Meesters (1995) and Meesters etal. (1996a, 1998). development scenarios have been pre-defined in Coral- The CuraVao reef response model determines coral Curacao: i) a reference scenario; and, ii) two growth sce- cover and diversity for an imaginary situation 10 years narios, growth-west and growth-east. These scenarios are after the impact levels have changed. The inputs are sus- summarized in Table 3.2. These development scenarios pended particulate matter, soluble reactive phosphorus, are examples to demonstrate the use of Coral-Curacao; dissolved inorganic nitrogen, maximum colony surface they are not necessarily balanced development proposals area, available substratum and, again, coral cover and di- for Curacao. versity (species number). Each variable was divided into three triangular fiuzzy sets reflecting low, medium and high Reference Scenario values. Boundary values for the sets were based on field- In the reference scenario, no major investments are as- work carried out for the project and on the literature sumed to take place and most trends are, in essence, con- (Meesters 1995). For each of the 2,187 possible input tinued as observed in recent years. This means that the combinations, decision rules were formulated. Informa- overall economic growth rate is near zero. There is some tion on current reef conditions in Curacao is provided in growth in the tourism sector (3% growth in demand per Table 3.1. year) but this is balanced by some decline in other sectors. Table 3.1. CuraZao reef conditions in 1995. The range of values shown is the values occurring in the sub-sections within the six main sections. Available Maximum Cover Diversity substratum colony size Section (%) (% of species present) (%) (102Mi2) 1 (Oostpunt to Comelisbaai) 14 to 23 33 to 61 40 to 50 77 to 316 2 (Cornelisbaai to Punda) 8 to 20 14 to 26 10 to 50 42 to 69 3 (Schottegat to St. Michael) 1 to 16 1 to 55 1 to 40 8 to 75 4 (Bullenbaai) 11 to 14 41 to 65 20 to 30 53 to 89 5 (Rif St. Marie to St. Martha) 12 to 16 26 to 100 20 to 40 89 to 143 6 (Jeremi to Playa Kalki) 15 to 23 17 to 98 40 275 to 455 Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Coral Reef Management and Protection: A Case Study of Cura ao 57 Table 3.2. Development scenarios pre-defined in Coral-Curaqao. Variables Units Reference scenario Growth-west Growth-east Economic growth %/yr 0 3 3 Population growth %/yr 1.2 1 1 Growth in tourism demand %/yr 3 8 8 Discount rate %lyr 6 6 6 Residential development # of houses current pattern 600 from Westpunt 600 in to St. Martha Bay Spaanse Water and Jan Thiel Hotels and apartments # of rooms 600 in Piscadera 2,000 from Westpunt 2,000 from Oostpunt and Cornelisbay to Rif St. Marie to Marie Pompoen Artificial beaches none Rif St. Marie Oostpunt Marie Pompoen Comelisbay Marie Pompoen Elyse Hotel Harbor projects none Caracas Bay none and Schottegat Refinery output growth %/yr -1 -2 0 Manufacturing growth %/yr 0 0 2 Population growth continues at about 1.2%/yr and, there- punt to Rif St. Marie. The existing beaches would be fore, per capita income declines somewhat. Construction supplemented by one artificial beach at Rif St. Marie. A of new houses is assumed to continue in the present pat- second artificial beach would be constructed at Marie tern without major shifts. The new tourist development Pompoen. The harbor project consists of the proposed projects (some 600 rooms) are assumed to be located reception facilities in Caracas Bay. Oostpunt would, in around Piscadera Bay and the area just west of Seaquarium essence, be preserved as a natural area in this scenario. (referred to as Comelisbay in Coral-Curacao). No new Growth-East Scenario artificial beaches would be constructed. There are no new harbor improvement or development projects. Growth east of Willemstad, with the same overall growth characteristics of the economy as for the growth-west sce- Growth-West Scenario nario, places more emphasis on the eastern, rather than In the growth-west scenario, an overall economic growth the western, part of the island. Residential development of 3%/yr is assumed to take place, with vigorous growth would be assumed to take place in the Spaanse Water in the tourism sector (8% growth in demand per year). and Jan Thiel areas. Tourist developments would em- Population growth declines to 1 %/yr. The scenario places phasize at least one major hotel in the Oostpunt area (200 emphasis on development of the western part of the island rooms) and other proposed projects between Oostpunt for tourism and residences, and expansion and improve- and Punda. In this scenario, four artificial beaches have ment of harbor facilities in Caracas Bay and Schottegat. been proposed for construction at Oostpunt, Cornelisbay, The refinery output is assumed to decline somewhat, while Marie Pompoen, and the Elysee Hotel. There would be manufacturing stabilizes. Emphasis in development of no harbor development projects, relatively stable refin- the western part ofthe island to relieve congestion around ery output, and some growth in manufacturing. Willemstad, as well as develop its tourism potential, im- plies that some 600 new houses are assumed to be con- Environmental and Other Impacts structed (following existing development plans) in the area from Westpunt to St. Martha Bay. Some 1,200 tourist The impacts of the development scenarios on both the rooms would be developed in the same area, from West- economy and on the reefs are sunmmarized in Table 3.3. 58 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling Table 3.3. Impacts of development scenarios without environmental strategies (GDP=gross domestic product; N=nitrogen; P=phosphorus; SPM=suspended particulate matter). Criteria Units Reference scenario Growth-west Growth-east GDP per capita NAF/yr 13,000 17,300 17,300 Employment number ofjobs 58,000 77,000 78,000 GDP share of coastal activities % 21 22 21 GDP tourism million NAF 324 450 450 GDP fisheries million NAF 10 13 13 GDP harbor and shipping million NAF 115 176 154 Total N load kg/day 2,100 2,200 2,200 Total P load kg/day 790 840 870 Total SPM load kg/day 17,800 17,700 18,900 Average coral reef diversity % 32 32 32 Average coral reef cover % 9 9 9 Problem beaches (bad water quality) number 13 14 0 In essence, even though the development locations of the analyzed under each of the economic scenarios described hotels, apartments and houses are quite drastically differ- previously. ent, the overall impact ofthe three development scenarios The environmental protection options available to the on reef health is similar. There are differences within user have been described above. The user can define these each of the coastal sections, but these are not drastic. The options for different locations, corresponding to the vari- characterization of the situation remains that the eastern ous settlements along the southern coast. The user is able and western sections are relatively pristine and that the to define any combination of measures and save these for middle sections are heavily impacted. This impact re- the analysis. In addition, measures can be defined for the flects the effect of the industrial zone around the industrial area surrounding Schottegat Harbor. Schottegat. There is a significant difference in the water To begin the analysis, the measures have been inves- quality along the beaches. The western part of the island tigated on an individual basis. These are then combined has a series of attractive beaches. The growth-east sce- into strategies or groups of measures all aiming to be nario maintains relatively good water quality conditions complimentary in the achievement of an improved reef in the western part, at least at the first order accuracy of condition. Analyzing the individual measures allows the the simple water quality model used here. When there is user to make an assessment as to the individual effec- some development in the western part, all these beaches tiveness. This will help in the formulation of effective become potential problem areas if there are no sanitation combinations, rather than random combinations. Like measures taken. The overall loadings of pollutants are the economic development options, the measures defined determined more by the population growth rate than by here are to be used to illustrate how the model works and tourism development (at least at the relatively modest tour- explore its limits. They are not carefully formulated en- ism growth rates investigated here). vironmental management plans that have been decided upon by a group of decision-makers. Table 3.4 describes the environmental protection strategies that have been defined and used in the analysis. Three combinations of A series of environmental measures are now investigated municipal waste disposal, industrial pollution control, and and subsequently combined into strategies to explore the beach maintenance have been combined together to ex- potential improvement in coral reef health (i.e., cover and plore the effect of integrating measures and to examine diversity) and the costs involved. These strategies are the cumulative effect that these have on reef health. Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Coral Reef Management and Protection: A Case Study of Curacao 59 Table 3.4. Descriptions of the environmental protection measures and strategies. Code Description IOH 100% treatment of hotel waste through onsite treatment. I OW6 100% connection of houses and hotels to sewage system; treatment with 60% reduction through five wastewater treatment plants. IOW9 100% connection of houses and hotels to sewage system; treatment with 90% reduction through five wastewater treatment plants. lOW9/lOH 100% connection of houses to sewage system; treatment with 90% reduction through five wastewater treatment plants; 100% treatment of hotel waste through onsite treatment. 5W9 50% connection of houses and hotels to sewage system; treatment with 90% reduction through five wastewater treatment plants. 5W9/5H 50% connection of houses and hotels to sewage system; treatment with 90% reduction through five wastewater treatment plants; remaining 50% hotel waste treated through onsite treatment. B Maintenance of the artificial beaches with heavier calcarious sand reducing the transport from the shore onto the reef flat. M9 90% reduction of manufacturing waste through onsite treatment. 04 100% houses and hotels connected to the sewage system where disposal is through four outfalls. 09 100% houses and hotels connected to the sewage system where disposal is through nine outfalls. R Reduction of refinery effluent. R/S4/M9 Maximum reduction of industrial pollution through reduction of refinery effluent; 40% reduction of pollution from ships through improved reception facilities and 90% reduction in manufacturing waste through onsite treatment. S4 40% reduction of waste from ships through improved reception facilities. Stratl 50% connection of houses and hotels to sewage system; treatment with 90% reduction through five wastewater treatment plants; remaining 50% hotel waste treated through onsite treatment; reduction of refinery effluent; 40% reduction of pollution from ships through improved reception facilities and connection of manufacturing waste to sewage system. Strat2 100% connection of houses to sewage system; treatment with 90% reduction through five wastewater treatment plants; 100% treatment of hotel waste through onsite treatment; reduction of refinery effluent; 90% reduction in manufacturing waste through onsite treatment. Strat3 100% connection of houses, hotels and manufacturing waste to the sewage system and disposal through four outfalls; reduction of refinery effluent; 40% reduction of pollution from ships through improved reception facilities and beach maintenance. Analysis of the Results The current reef health was found to decline in all of scenarios in a similar manner. The average for coral cover Tables 3.5 to 3.7 show the results of the environmental drops from 15% in the current situation (1995) to 9%, protection measures and strategies under the three eco- while the average for diversity drops from 55% to 32%. nomic development scenarios. The main indicators of The major impact zone begins at the population center of the effectiveness of these measures and strategies are costs Punda and moves westwards across the Schottegat en- (investment, operation and maintenance) and the result- trance, extending up to Santa Marta Baai. This pattern is ing coral cover and diversity. In addition, the number of similar for both coral cover and diversity. The growth- problem beaches is also examined. This is an indication east and growth-west scenarios follow similar patterns. of the number of beaches likely to be threatened by fecal This is due to the relatively small growth of population pollution. centers in the east and west. Compared to the pollution 60 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling produced from the industrial zone and Willemstad, this complete sewage system. Septic tanks are not included appears to have a relatively small influence. in the model and these have, in the past, been widely used The eastem end of the island remains impact free in in Curacao. In the more developed areas, they become the reference situation and, for coral cover, the current increasingly less suitable; however, in the more sparsely situation is seen to improve by approximately 5%. This populated areas, they may remain a feasible option. The follows a pattem of steady coral growth without competi- model may need to take into account the seepage of the tion from algae and other competitors for space. How- effluent into the groundwater table and, eventually, also ever, the coral diversity declines slightly. This shows that into the near-shore waters. It is possible that seepage may the current diversity is not sustainable with the other reef be partly responsible for changes in the nutrient levels conditions and eventually the reef will head towards an over the reefs. However, there has been limited research equilibrium with a lower diversity. This would represent into this as yet. a more developed reef than seen at present. The zone of The largest improvements in reef health can be ob- greatest impact appears to spread along the coast from tained by a combination of measures addressing the vari- close to Schottegat westwards. This represents the effect ous sources of pollutants. Disposing of sewage through of the westward current carrying pollutants from the in- four outfalls along the coast effectively removes the im- dustrial and heavily populated zone. This effect does not pact of sewage pollution from the reef. The average coral appear to reach Westpunt itself, having been sufficiently cover resulting from this measure is 11% and the result- diluted along the coast. ing diversity is 38%. This does show an improvement These strongly declining conditions can be altered by from the reference conditions, with the major areas of the environmental protection measures and strategies im- improvement being the westem sections. Coral cover plemented and shown in Tables 3.5 to 3.7. Each of these does improve around Punda by 8% and in the far westem measures and strategies has a different reduction on the sections by 7% to 12%. Diversity gradually improves from land-based loadings and, therefore, on reef health. The Bullenbaai to the west, where increases are seen between costs of the measures and strategies vary quite consid- 5% and as much as 40%. Little change is seen around erably. The major investments are linked to wastewater the Willemstad area. This is likely due to the remaining treatment and disposal that involves the construction of a influence of the industrial pollution. Table 3.5. Environmental protection options under the reference scenario. Investment Operation and Coral Number of cost mnanagement Coral cover diversity problem Strategy code (million NAF) (million NAF) (°/) (%o of maximum) beaches IOH 2.4 0.1 9 32 13 IOW6 240 2.2 10 37 0 1OW9 270 2.3 11 38 0 10W9/10H 270 2.4 11 38 0 5W9 130 1.1 10 36 0 5W9/5H 130 1.2 10 36 0 B 0 0.12 9 32 13 M9 0.41 0.01 9 32 13 04 220 2.1 11 38 0 09 220 2.5 11 38 0 R 47 3.4 10 36 13 RIS4/M9 52 3.8 10 36 13 S4 5.3 0.43 9 32 13 Strati 190 5 14 47 0 Strat2 310 5.8 14 50 0 Strat3 270 6 15 51 0 Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Coral Reef Management and Protection: A Case Study of Curacao 61 Table 3.6. Environmental protection options under the growth-east scenario. Investment Operation and Coral Number of cost management Coral cover diversity problem Strategy code (million NAF) (million NAF) (N) (%o of maximum) beaches IOH 3.4 0.15 9 32 0 IOW6 240 2.2 9 34 0 IOW9 270 2.3 10 37 0 1 OW9/1 OH 270 2.4 10 37 0 5W9 130 1.2 9 34 0 5W9/5H 140 1.2 9 34 0 B 3.0 0.16 9 34 0 M9 0.54 0.01 9 32 0 04 220 2.0 11 37 0 09 220 2.5 11 37 0 R 47 3.7 10 35 0 R/S4/M9 53 4.3 10 35 0 S4 5.3 0.58 9 32 0 Stratl 190 5.6 13 44 0 Strat2 320 6.2 14 49 0 Strat3 270 6.5 14 50 0 Table 3.7. Environmental protection options under the growth-west scenario. Investment Operation and Coral Number of cost management Coral cover diversity problem Strategy code (million NAF) (million NAF) (%) (lo of maximum) beaches IOH 3.1 0.13 9 32 14 IOW6 240 2.3 10 35 0 lOW9 270 2.4 11 37 0 1 OW9/1 OH 260 2.5 11 37 0 5W9 130 1.3 9 35 0 5W9/5H 130 1.3 10 35 0 B 1.6 0.14 9 32 14 M9 0.54 0.01 9 32 14 04 210 1.9 11 38 0 09 220 2.5 11 38 0 R 47 3.0 10 35 14 RJS4/M9 53 3.6 10 36 14 S4 5.3 0.58 9 32 14 Strati 190 5 13 45 0 Strat2 310 5.5 14 50 0 Strat3 270 5.6 15 51 0 62 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling As with the implementation of sewage disposal measures and strategies in terms of the cost per unit gain through outfalls, the reef improves in the western sections in reef health. The unit of reef health is either the percent after a reduction in pollution from the refinery by 70%. change in coral cover or diversity. Each comparison of Increase in coral cover ranges from 7% to 10% and in- environmental measures is carried out under the same creases in diversity range from 8% to 24%. Little im- economic scenario so that the different measures are di- provement is actually seen around Schottegat. This is rectly comparable. As a result, a separate analysis should due to the continuing influence of sewage pollution around be carried out for each scenario defined. Figure 3.4 shows those sections. the cost-effectiveness of individual measures under the These results clearly show the impact different envi- reference scenario using coral cover as the indicator of ronmental protection measures potentially have on the reef reef health. Figure 3.5 uses the same reference situation system and show that, with careful management and plan- but analyzes the cost-effectiveness of strategies (i.e., com- ning, development of the island does not need to lead to binations of measures). the gradual decline in the coral reef conditions as has been Beach maintenance, the reduction of sewage pollu- seen over the past 20 years (Bak and Nieuwland 1995). tion through on-site treatment of hotel waste, and the However, implementing the maximum environmental reduction of waste from manufacturing have no signifi- protection strategy may not be a feasible option in finan- cant effect on the health status of the reef averaged for cial terms. The following sections examine the costs of the south coast as a whole. They have, therefore, been the measures and their associated cost-effectiveness. left out of the cost-effectiveness analysis as their cost per unit of reef health will be infinite. On a local scale, these Cost-Effectiveness Analysis measures may have a significant effect, making the rela- tively small investments cost-effective. Reducing the A core feature of the Coral-Curatcao decision support waste from the refinery appears to be one of the more system is the cost-effectiveness analysis, which allows cost-effective measures. However, the cost data for the for the comparison of sets of environmental protection refinery should be treated as preliminary as there was million NAF per % increase in coral cover 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 refinery waste 4 outfalls 100% house and 100% house and reduction hotel waste reduced hotel waste reduced by 90% by 60% Figure 3.4. Cost-effectiveness of individual measures under the reference scenario using coral cover as the indicator of coral reef health. Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Coral Reef Management and Protection: A Case Study of Cura9ao 63 million NAF per % increase in coral cover 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 100% house and 4 outfalls; refinery 100% house waste maximum industrial hotel waste reduced and ship reduction; reduced by 90%; wastewater treatment by 90%; maximum beach maintenance hotels with on-site industrial wastewater treatment; industrial treatment wastewater treatment Figure 3.5. Cost-effectiveness of strategies or combinations of measures under the reference scenario using coral cover as the indicator of coral reef health. very little data available. The least cost-effective mea- seen in the cost-effectiveness of individual measures are sures are the implementation of sewage systems and similar to those seen under the reference scenario, with wastewater treatment plants. These are expensive; how- the construction of sewage systems and wastewater treat- ever, they are important for public health reasons as well ment plants being the least cost-effective options. as reef health. There are no real significant differences between the Combining the measures into strategies creates more scenarios, partly due to the similarity in the change seen cost-effective options. All the combinations shown cre- to reef health and the general nature of the cost model- ate a cost-effectiveness of 15 million NAF/% change in specifically, the fact that the model averages over the reef health (for both cover and diversity) compared to 30 coastline will mask significant local changes. Further to 60 for coral diversity and 100 to 250 for coral cover. developments of the model may want to focus on smaller This illustrates the need to address more than one source sections of the coast. An interesting feature is the increase of pollution simultaneously. in the cost-effectiveness of all the strategies. The cost- A similar analysis is carried out for the both the growth- effectiveness of individual measures rarely falls below east and growth-west scenarios. Figure 3.6 shows the 100 million NAF/% increase in coral cover, whereas the cost-effectiveness of individual measures for the growth- strategies are generally considerably more cost-effective. east scenario using coral cover as the indicator of reef This shows that the improvement of the reef is limited by health. Further results are reported in Rijsberman and more than one pollutant and undertaking one measure Westmacott (1996). Again, the improved beach mainte- alone may be restricted in its effectiveness if other im- nance, reduction of waste from ships, and manufacturing pacts remain in place. Significant improvements to cost- has little effect at the scale of the southern coastline and effectiveness come through addressing combinations of are, therefore, not included in the analysis. The patterns measures. 64 Integrated Coastal Zone Alanagement of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling million NAF per % increase in coral cover 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 refinery waste 4 outfalls 100% house and 100% house and reduction hotel waste reduced hotel waste reduced by 90% by 60% Figure 3.6. Cost-effectiveness of individual measures under the growth-east scenario using coral cover as the indicator of coral reef health. Conclusions (NGOs), representatives of the tourism and diving indus- tries, and the management of the Curacao Underwater A decision support tool has been developed that can be Park. Most of these stakeholders have indicated a keen used for: interest in the possibilities of using the tool in a "real life" * Communication among stakeholder groups conceming management application. desirable development directions and environmental strategies for the coastal zone in Curacao; Model Results * Analysis of the impacts, through the discharge of waste- The model shows through the three scenarios developed water and sediment, of planned developments in the that there is likely to be a very significant coral reef de- coastal zone on coral reef health, thereby integrating cline over the next 10 years. This is in line with the trend sectoral land use, tourism and nature conservation plan- seen during the past 20 years reported by Bak and ning in one framework; and, Nieuwland (1995). The model also shows that, with the * Analysis of the cost-effectiveness of environmental implementation of environmental protection strategies, measures and strategies in maintaining coral reef health. this trend can be halted and, in some cases, reversed with The main innovations of Coral-Curacao are its user- recovery to a state of coral reef health better than the friendly but structured interface and its coral reef response current. model. The developers are of the opinion that the tool Improving the status of the reefs of Cura~ao can be has shown to have potential for use, but that the real proof done through combinations of comprehensive sewage of whether this is an appropriate tool for management of treatment and disposal methods, as well as reductions in coral reefs and the coastal zone of Curacao will have to refinery pollution. Measures such as environmentally be demonstrated through an application. The tool has friendly beach maintenance and the reduction of waste been developed in cooperation with government repre- from manufacturing and shipping are not effective at the sentatives, environmental non-government organizations scale examined. The model can, however, be used to Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Coral Reef Management and Protection: A Case Study of Cura9ao 65 identify the areas where the reef conditions are poorest. the economic development scenarios and the environ- Implementation ofthese measures on a smaller scale could mental strategies are defined. The data used in the model well be effective. has been collected from a series of project reports. Little The cost-effectiveness analysis allows a ranking of of the data was collected through fieldwork and, as a re- the measures, assisting the user in the formulation and re- sult, may have had to be adapted. In some areas, data formulation of strategies. The costs of the strategies are, was not available or hard to obtain. Subsequent updates however, high. To reach an average coral cover of 14% of the model should attempt to improve this aspect. Once and diversity of 50%, the initial investment is 310 million the model begins to be used by the various groups and NAF and the yearly operation and maintenance costs are departments as is intended, more data may be identified 6 million NAF. With a total GDP for Curacao of 1,620 and produced that can be directly inserted into the model. million NAF in 2005 under this scenario, the investment would amount to 20% of GDP. Since a careful optimiza- Further Model Developments tion of environmental strategies has not taken place, these estimates may be on the high side. The modeling results reported in this chapter were com- The fact that a tool is now available with which a pleted in 1996. Since that time, Coral-Curacao has been qTitfactiveat assessment cnobe madie ofthe wimact of expanded, revised and used. A valuation study of ben- quantitate aefits due to changes in reef health was incorporated. The development scenarios on coral reef health is a signifi- model has also been demonstrated to the different stake- cant step forward. Experience in Curagao showed clearly, oder has Fo ee , itmonstra ed as the basisrent a however, that for the tool to be accepted as a reliable in- holder groups. For example, it was used as the basis for a dication of sustainability, time and effort will be required u to introduce its use. Users need to become both familiar of the relevant Curagao coastal managers participated. with the possibilities and the limitations of the model and Subsequently, the model was installed at the offices of most of the coastal managers. Various talks were also gain an understanding into the formulation of the model. of t cols anager Viron usntalks wexplain As~~~~~~. wel the nedtobcoefaiir ih h mli given at schools and for environmental NGOs to explain criteria approach used in the model, the project andthe tool. The mostrecent version of Coral- Curacao is described in Chapter 10 and a companion CD- ROM is included with this publication. Limitations of the Model The overall conclusion to be drawn from the experi- ence to date is that the model is quite helpful as a teach- Although the issues included in the model have been se- lected through interviews and meetings with the various ing, training and awareness raising tool, but too compli- stakeholders in the regions, there are certain issues that cated and cumbersome to be used for quick reference could not be taken into account. Solid waste disposal, for during the day-to-day work of the coastal managers. As example iscurrentlyanissue. This.willbeanimprtat stated previously, the model was developed with suffi- example, IS currently an issue. This will be an important cetraimt ersn ra ie rbes u h factor, for aesthetic reasons as well as environmnental rea- cient realism to represent ";real life" problems, but the fatons, forwheshetc rsonsin casta znell masenv mentl reans day-to-day questions of the coastal managers appear to sons, when considering coastal zone management plans. be slih aitos eurn hne ob aei h Sediment and nutrients were considered the major pollut- belight varations, requirng changes to be made th ants and impacts on the reef in the current model. model. The impact of implementing a marine park is difficult to assess in terms ofthe reduction ofpollutants. It may be that the user would like to set standards of water quality that the marine park would monitor and enforce. By altering the focus of the model, it could be possible to calculate the cost of achieving these levels. Fishing pressure and the effect on the reef that the extraction of certain fish species (e.g., algae grazers) may have is also not included. This is an issue that has been successfully included in the revised model for Jamaica (Ridgley and Dollar 1996; Chapter 8). The inclusion of oil pollution should also be considered. It will be necessary to improve the database for the simulation results, as well as the detail with which both Chapter 4 Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Coral Reef Management and Protection: A Case Study of the Republic of the Maldives Susie Westmacott and Frank Rijsberman Resource Analysis, Delft, The Netherlands The specific objective of the research is to develop a The second objective required the establishment of a quantitative ecological economic model of coastal zones wider framework of multi-criteria decision-making in in- in the developing tropics, designed to assist in the formu- tegrated coastal zone management (ICZM). This involved lation, evaluation and ranking of various cost-effective cooperating closely with local decision-makers and ex- coastal zone management plans. The Republic of the perts in order to shape the final product into a useful tool. Maldives, where the coral reefs are in many areas still The involvement of local decision-makers and experts was relatively undisturbed but where development is rapidly achieved through a series ofworkshops and consultations. changing these coral reef systems, was utilized as a case The project was divided into four main phases: study site. The condition of the coastal zone is repre- 1. Project preparation. The site was identified, contacts sented by an indicator of coral reef health that is meas- established and a detailed work plan was developed ured in terms of coral cover and rugosity (an indicator of (Rijsberman 1995). the structural development of the reef). In order to cope 2. Fieldwork. The fieldwork involved problem formu- with the difficulties of assessing the benefits of improved lation and data collection (Westmacott 1996). coastal zone management, the research has been limited 3. Model development. This required the development to assessing the costs of management using a framework of the socio-economic model (Westmacott and Rijs- that focuses on four main steps: i) the specification of berman 1997) and the ecological response model economic sector interventions; ii) the modeling of the (Meesters and Westmacott 1996). The cost-effective- changes of these interventions on production and con- ness methodology is incorporated in the linking of sumption; iii) the quantification of the physical response these two models. The computer user interface was of these in terms of the wastes and physical damage gen- also developed in this phase. erated; and, iv) the modeling of the impact of the wastes 4. Testing and validation. This involved presentations and physical damage on reef health. The final cost of of the model to those involved in its development and each intervention is then computed, taking into account lead to the final revisions. potential negative costs (e.g., from production changes). Research began during the fall of 1995. This chapter This enables interventions to be formulated in such a way presents the results of the final report, which was com- as to incur the minimum costs while retaining a certain pleted early in 1997. Further detail can be found in quality of reef. Westmacott and Rijsberman (1997) and within the com- The two objectives of the Maldives case study are: panion CD-ROM. 1. To test and validate the cost-effectiveness analysis The area defined in the model is that of North and model of coral reefprotection and management devel- South Male within the Republic of the Maldives. This oped for Jamaica (Chapter 8) and Curacao (Chapter specific study site was selected as it is the most developed 3); and, and contains some of the most densely populated islands. 2. To investigate whether the cost-effectiveness analysis For modeling, the two atolls have been divided into 10 model can be a useful tool for decision support for sections based on physical location (i.e., inner atoll is- coastal zone management for the Republic of the lands or outer/surrounding islands and reefs, subsequently Maldives. dividing east to west and north to south; Figure 4.1). 68 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling Description of the Coral-Maldives Model the interests of the user and where more research has been undertaken, additional indicators can be added to the Coral-Maldives is a coastal zone management decision analysis. Second, the user is able to define the scenarios. support system that incorporates a cost-effectiveness The scenarios represent a series of overall growth rates or analysis for coral reef management. The decision sup- policy decisions. The economic development and envi- port system is structured in such a way that different us- ronmental protection options have been selected through ers are able to explore a series of different coastal zone discussions with various government agencies involved management options under varying assumptions for ex- in coastal zone management within the Republic of the ogenous variables (e.g., population growth rates). The Maldives. The user is again free to define different com- analysis allows the users to focus on the most cost-effec- binations of these developments and protection measures. tive options for coral reef management and protection for Once the definition of scenarios and formulation of strat- the various economic development options. The impacts egies has been carried out, the user is able to select com- can be seen in terms of economic, social and environ- binations of these (cases) for the analysis. The decision mental indicators that are selected at the outset of the support system allows the user to delete less favorable analysis. In addition to the selected indicators, the user is cases so as to keep the analysis tractable. able to explore more detailed information relating to the economy, reef health and coastal erosion. The final step Structure of the Decision Support System and the of the analysis shows a scorecard of all the selected indi- Coral-Maldives Model cators. The user can also use the cost-effectiveness analy- sis to rank the coastal zone management strategies in terms The Coral-Maldives decision support system consists of of cost per unit gain in reef health. the following: The user is able to structure analysis through the user - A user interface; definitions of indicators, scenarios and strategies and the - The computational model in a spreadsheet; final formulation of cases. First, users can choose which indicators to select in the analysis. This means they are * The database of model parameters in the spreadsheet; able to include specific aspects of interest to themselves and, as well as more general coastal zone management aspects. * The database of information contained in interactive In the case where the model does not adequately cover all text and graphic files available to the user. The steps involved in the analysis can be seen in Fig- ure 4.2. The interface helps the user to assess the prob- North Male Atoll lems and issues found in the coastal zone and define the objectives of the analysis and the criteria or indicators 5 X gh 06 with which to measure the success of each plan. The 3 user definitions include scenarios, economic development 4 / ,.. N X and environmental protection options. The user can work 4 _ i through different options, saving each with a name and a description. These are then combined into cases in the 2 analysis and analyzed on an individual basis and in a com- parisons of all cases. The user definitions (scenarios, economic develop- 6 Male ~~~~~~~~~ment and environmnental protection options) drive the 7 socio-economic model, which results in a set of impacts 9 XT gdistributed over the area. The impacts are measured by 1 0 {t.fw $ /sediment loadings and levels of physical damage. These are then used as input into the ecological response model, 8 - .& 7 South Male Atoll which estimates changes in reef health over the impact areas. These changes will, in turn, affect the health of the reef fisheries, which has a feedback effect on commercial fisheries production. The costs of the environmental pro- Figure 4.1. Sections of North and South Male tection options and the changes in the reef health are utilized in the model. considered in the cost-effectiveness analysis, which allows Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Coral Reef Management and Protection: A Case Study of the Republic of the Maldives 69 environmental options) or analysis of strategies under ser different scenarios. The available user definitions are assumed to repre- sent the major issues currently of concern in the coastal zone within the Republic of the Maldives: Interface I. Growth scenarios, defined for the study site and at the national level, including overall economic growth; user- S population growth rates; investment in boats; an in- defined cost- crease in number of tourists; an increase in price of strategies effectiveness foreign aggregate (alternative construction material); and V analysis J and the discount rate. scenarios < > 2. Economic development options, defined at the island level, including an increase in the number of houses; an increase in the number of resort rooms; an increase in the capacity for boats through development and/or Socio- expansion of harbors and jetties; and protection of is- economic & Impact CZM lands against coastal erosion and flooding through con- ecological zones indicators struction of seawalls or groynes. response model 3. Environmental protection options, defined for the study area, including reduction of pollution through treat- ment of wastewater by means of sewage treatment plants, septic tanks and outfalls; a setback policy for resorts; protected areas/marine parks; reduction of the Figure 4.2. Structure of the Coral-Maldives areas available to mining through land use regulations; decision support system. limitations to the use of coral in construction; reduc- tion of sedimentation from construction through the use of sheet piling; construction of open jetties to mini- a ranking in terms of total cost per unit change in reef mize erosion; and education and awareness campaigns. health. Two indicators of reef health are used-coral cover and rugosity. The user defines scenarios and strategies. Population Growth and Migration Patterns The scenarios are exogenous developments, such as over- all~~~~~ ~ ~ ecnmcgot.n oulto rwh hc r Population growth and the migration to Male is one of all economic growth and population growth,whicthe major issues of concern at present in the Maldives. used to drive the socio-economic model. The strategies The model addresses this through user-defined scenarios. are combinations of economic developments and environ- The user has several options. The first step is to define mental protection measures. the natural growth rates for Male and the outer islands. User Definitions These have been seen to differ and are, therefore, speci- fied separately by the user. In addition to these growth The model is driven by user-defined scenarios relating to rates, the user has the option to specify an out-migration external growth factors and policies. Growth is distrib- rate. This represents potential decentralization policies, uted throughout the islands through the definition of eco- providing housing and services out of the Male area. Once nomic development options. Furthermore, the user can the growth rates are established, the user can specify define various environmental protection measures and can houses to be developed on each island. This defines the examine the impacts of these under different scenarios. spatial distribution of population, based on current popu- During the analysis, the user selects a growth scenario, an lation densities and housing patterns, and assumes that economic development scenario and a set of environmen- people will remain on an island outside of Male if hous- tal protection measures that form a case. This is then com- ing is provided. If housing is not provided, based on cur- pared to a reference case, which is defined as the projected rent migration patterns, it is assumed that people will situation in the year 2005 if no additional environmental migrate to Male. In the case of new land being created, protection measures are taken. This allows the analysis the user specifies a number of houses for the reclaimed of only the environmental protection measures or of the land and the model calculates the land area required based coastal zone management strategies (i.e., economic and on an assumed area required per house. 70 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling Economic Growth These activities produce impacts on the reefs through The ode cotain a impe setorecoomicmodle. sediment loadings and physical damage. Impact zones The modhelrotan an simplem sectors aecooi mod uld,wthte,re are used as input into the ecological response model. To Theaishryann turs sectorsbenagratd are modeleGD, withghere- minimize the impacts, the user is able to undertake a used by the model takes into account that for North and sre fevrmetlpoeto esrs South Male only and not that for the whole of the Repub- Housing Development and Tourism Development lic. This division is based on fisheries production data Housing and tourism activities increase the number of and the tourism capacity of the atolls. The overall GDP people on an island. Insufficient housing development is based on 1993 data. for the growth in population will result in the excess pop- The economy grows according to a growth rate speci- ulation migrating to Male. An island can be developed as fled by the user. The growth in the fisheries is based on either a tourist island or a local island. The population two limiting factors. The first is the fishing capacity. This on the tourist islands is related to the number of rooms, can be expanded through an investment in boats, speci- the quality of the resort, and the occupancy rate. The fled by the user in terms of total number of boats. The presence of people produces wastewater that is discharged second limiting factor is the available fish stocks. The off the reef. Any construction will place a demand on model takes into account the state of the reef and, there- construction materials that is assumed to be coral rock fore, the potential density of reef fish based on a study by unless otherwise specified. Any land reclamation depends Brown et al. (1 990) showing a relationship between reef on the additional houses constructed, expansion of the fish density and the rugosity of the reef. As a result, this resorts or harbors developed. An estimation of the area also affects the tuna fisheries through the availability of that a house or resort room occupies is taken as the basis baitfish, which is dependent on the reef condition. of the calculation. There is also an estimation made as to Tourism is limited by the demand from the inter- the current availability of land for each island. national market or the capacity of the resorts based on DelomnofteIad'Acsibiy the number of beds. The exogenous character of the Dhevuelopment oefieainstntn the nslabd'rAccesbboltt growth of the intemational tourism market means it is inthe uspercandfineatin invtestmentros in sear thennmero boas- deat wth s asceari vaiabe dfind b th usr. he tributed over the islands in the development options as capacity of the area to accept this demand is again user epnino osrcino xsigo e tutrsi sortsed or ison crtene resr. mdevtoelopmncand aisoin be- the formn of harbors or jetties. The size of the harbor or sortsor ceatenew rsort. Deelopmnt cn alo be jetty is defined by the size of the boats with which it must limited through setback policies, be able to cope. Jetties and harbors do, however, create The remaining economic sectors, which are combined, sediment loading, which can be minimized through sheet are modeled from the overall growth rate specified in the pingThyascrteoetalrsonhtcn,nte scenriosand isheies nd turis GDP Thescenrio case of the jetties, be minimized through the design of the provides a new overall GDP for the year selected. This jetty on piles. In some cases, access channels are also GDP is then re-distributed in the economy through changes required, which add to the localized erosion problems. seen in the fisheries and tourism sectors, the remaining Land reclamation will occur in the areas where harbors GDP belonging to the aggregated sectors. Although this aedvlpd hsasmsta h rde aeili simple model allows a clear and transparent modeling of dumped on the edge of the island to create new land areas. the economy, it does omit several important side effects Aan hshsasdmn odn fet of changinig the sector balance. For example, growth in Aan hshsasdmn odn fet tourism may increase GDP in the transportation sector, Coastal Protection which in turn has an effect on the boat building industry Island development may lead to a certain level of instabil- and, perhaps, also provides employment for coral miners, ity through land reclamation and other activities such as currently working in a declining industry. This version of the construction ofjetties. This will lead to erosion of the the model does not model these links between the sectors, island. There is also a certain level of natural erosion seen; however, this is not accounted for in the model as Economic Development Options the islands are relatively dynamic and the seasonal changes, in many cases, transport the sediment from one The economic development options spread the economic part of the island to another, reversing direction at the activity and the population spatially through the islands. change of season. Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Coral Reef Management and Protection: A Case Study of the Republic of the Maldives 71 Environmental Protection Measures Restricted and Protected Areas Environmental options are available to the user to mini- In the model, coral is mined over the reef flats or con- mize the impacts of economic development on the reef. centrated to a single reef or faro. Mining a faro may be a Taking each measure separately, the user can define, for more costly procedure, but will, however, reduce the over- example, different levels of treatment or the number of all area of reef destroyed. The user is able to define which protected areas. These can then be formulated into strat- percentage of coral rock is mined from which location. egies (i.e., combinations of individual measures). These Setback policies can be implemented on the tourist islands. strategies should be fonnulated with the objectives of the This limits the number of resort rooms through the size plan in mind. This will also aid the user in the first stages of the island. It is assumed that, by implementing a set- of the analysis to selectively delete those less successful back policy, no land reclamation is allowed to take place. or unfeasible strategies. Strategies may be unfeasible for Protected areas can also be defined for each section. It is financial or social reasons. Each measure or combination assumed that, on each area, the impact from sediment and of measures has an associated reduction in the loading physical damage is reduced to a minimum. In some cases, modeled in terms of the sediment produced or the level or this may result in regeneration of the reef. physical damage seen. In addition, each measure has an Coral Mining associated cost. This varies depending on the measure and the scale in which the measure is implemented. The user can limit the use of coral in construction of resorts and housing and in the construction of coastal pro- Sewage Treatment and Disposal tection structures. The altemative available for housing Sewage from the islands can be treated in several ways. and resort construction is concrete block. This is a less These are through construction of septic tanks, primary expensive option than coral rock; the costs of the meas- treatment plants or secondary treatment plants. Each ure are, therefore, negative. However, it will reduce the treatment type results in a different level of reduction to demand for coral rock, increasing unemployment among the loading. The ecological response model only accounts miners but reducing the reef areas subject to physical for sediment loadings. Any level of treatment has an damage. This also applies to coastal protection options, associated cost that also includes the cost of installing a where the altematives are the more expensive imported sewage system. Disposal is either in the near-shore, where materials. The actual price of these imported materials any remaining sediment will be discharged over the reef, can be regulated by taxes and duties defined by the user or through a deep water outfall, which is assumed to re- in the scenarios. sult in no additional sediment on the reef. This version Cost of the Environmental Interventions of the model does not allow for specification of environ- Each environmental intervention has a cost. This is mental measures per island or per section. Later ver- modeled in terms of investment cost and maintenance cost sions could include a different option for each level of and discounted to the base year. The discount rate is treatment (e.g., secondary wastewater treatment) that is defined by the user as part of the scenario. Inmost cases, more appropriate to each population. Current data limi- the maintenance cost is a percentage of the investment tations meant that this would not have produced realistic t that iS set in the definitions of the model parameters. In or useful results. some cases, such as sewage treatment plants, scale fac- Control of Sediment Movement tors are applied (i.e., the smaller the installation, the more One major impact from construction activities, such as expensive it is per unit capacity). harbor development and land reclamation, is the spread of sediment during the construction phase. One method SDmmary of the Impacts From Economic to minimize this impact is through the use of sheet piling. This is used to surround the land reclamation works or The major impacts on the reefs in the Maldives are through harbor dredging activities. It is assumed this will reduce sedimentation and the production of rubble (Meesters and the sediment loading onto the reef by 80%. In order to Westmacott 1996). In addition, constructions such as maintain natural sediment movements around the islands harbors and jetties cause erosion. Some impact coeffi- and reduce any potential for erosion through the construc- cients used in the model are based on observations, while tion of jetties, design standards can be enforced, specify- others are based on best estimates due to lack of more ing that all jetties should be built on piles. This reduces detailed data. The project fieldwork report (Westmacott the erosion effect of the jetties. 1996) outlines the data collected in detail. 72 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling Sediment and Rubble Impacts used as the input values for the ecological response model. Sdmnesocio-economic The outputs of the model are the reef health descriptors Sediment and rubble are produced by the e onmen otec used in the cost-effectiveness analysis (i.e., coral cover activities and limited through the environmentalppnot and rugosity). Rugosity is subsequently used as an input tion options. Thosenad exthen a of thei s devopmendats on for the fisheries module, affecting the density of reef fish the options chosen and the scale of the developments or to be foud onthe refs. mitigation efforts. Rather than modeling the dispersion of sediment and production of rubble in a dilution/disper- sion model, Coral-Maldives makes use of impact zones. This style of modeling was selected due to the relatively Case Studies i Coral-Maldives little data available on the spread of the sediment and production of rubble. Three impact zones are defined- Cases pre-defined in the model are developed as exam- high, low and minimal. The distance these extend from ples to show the user the options available in the model the construction or outfall depends on the activity's size. and to illustrate how the model can be used to explore The area of each impact zone is then calculated using the different economic developments and environmental pro- average reef width. The impact zones are calibrated us- tection options. The user is entirely free to define those ing as many actual sets of observed data as possible. The scenarios and alternatives of interest to him or her. The resulting impact zones are then combined with the data- structure of the decision support system should assist the base formulated from the results ofthe ecological response decision-maker in the selection ofthe "best" strategy. This model, providing, for example, total areas of reef lost. may be a decision on where to locate certain develop- ments or which environmental protection options are the Erosion most cost-effective. Coral-Maldives allows combinations of scenarios and strategies to be examined. The follow- As with the modeling of sediment and rubble, there was ing cases have been selected by the authors to illustrate little data available to develop a deterministic model of the potential and the limitations of the model. erosion. The results of the model are again based on a scaling, making use of field observations. Areas eroded Scenarios are computed on the basis of exposure of the island and previous observations of eroded areas where human in- Scenarios can be used to explore different population fluence has played a role. During the fieldwork, there growth pattems and set the boundaries for different levels was no specific measuring of eroded areas. As a result, of economic activity. Three scenarios have been devel- the data used in this version of the model is very oped as an example. First is a reference scenario (REF) approximate. that is based on past trends in the population with high growth on Male and lower growth on the surrounding Reef Health islands. Different levels of economic activity have also been exarnined. REF is based on the growth rates seen in The ecological response model of reef health under im- 1995 with a slow increase in the fishing fleet of 5 boats pact of sediment and rubble is described in Meesters and per year. Foreign aggregate is also assumed to be slowly Westmacott (1996). The model was developed using fuzzy increasing by 1%/yr. logic, a method able to capture expert knowledge on the A second scenario (POP) reflects a decrease in pop- behavior of a system. Experience of the Jamaica case ulation growth rate to 3%/yr. This may be related to study (Ridgley and Dollar 1996; Chapter 8) was utilized. sustained high levels of economnic growth and the desire The main impact factors considered in the Maldives were to have less children. There is also a move away from those relating to sedimentation and the production of rub- fisheries into, perhaps, the tourism industry. This is seen ble. These are outputs of the socio-economic activities. by the low increase in the fishing fleet of 2 boats per Levels of sedimentation and rubble are directly depend- year. The increase in price of foreign aggregate is nega- ant on the user's definitions of both island development tive; this represents policy options to reduce import tax and environmental protection. or subsidize its import to increase the use of imported A set of base reef conditions are defined for each materials above that of coral rock. section. These combine with the sediment and rubble The third scenario (OUT) examines the changes in values resulting from the environmental protection meas- population caused by a gradual 2%/yr out-migration. This ures taken and the economic development options and are could be the result of a decentralization policy or low Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Coral Reef Management and Protection: A Case Study of the Republic of the Maldives 73 economic growth rates, making areas out of Male more increases at a fixed rate of 5%/yr. It may be that the user attractive again. The values used in these scenarios can will also want to change this parameter in future versions be seen in Table 4.1. of the model to reflect certain taxes on the use of coral The impacts of the scenarios can be seen in Table 4.2. rather than simply prohibiting its use. In the model, the The estimates are simulated over the 1 0 year period. The price of imported aggregate will not affect the use of coral different population growth rates make significant dif- until either there are measures taken that prohibit the use ferences, particularly when looking at housing demand. of coral rock or the price falls below that of coral rock. In The POP scenario would require provision of half the a 10 year period, this will occur at a decrease in price of number of houses compared to the REF scenario. The over 15%/yr. population growth on the outer islands is relatively small compared to the high growth that can be seen on Male. Economic Development Strategies These scenarios indicate that the housing situation on Male, currently reaching its maximum capacity, is a high There are four main options available to the user for eco- priority issue in island development. nomic development of the islands. These are the provi- The demand for resort rooms indicates that, if this sion of housing, the development of resorts, an increase growth in tourist numbers is going to continue at a rate of in the island's accessibility and coastal protection. Three 14%/yr, the capacity is unlikely to be totally satisfied. strategies relating to housing development have been for- Even at the lower growth of 8%/yr, as seen in the OUT mulated to show the different options available. In addi- scenario, the capacity demand remains high. With the tion, several different options relating to the development size of resorts in general varying between 100 to 200 of resorts and coastal protection have been examined. The rooms, satisfying the 8%/yr growth could mean the con- first strategy, REF, is again a reference strategy that does struction of 1 00 to 150 resorts. This rate of construction not include any specific measures to be taken. NOMIG is unlikely to be reached in the next 10 years. The current aims to provide housing for the natural population growth total number of resorts in North and South Male is 70. on each island. There are several variations of this strat- The fisheries are, as of 1996, not threatening the fish egy allowing a comparison of developing the northern or stocks; however, with a large increase in the fishing fleet southern islands. The final strategy, RECLAIM, looks at (e.g., 150 boats in 10 years), the catch of reef fish closes the possibility of reclaiming large areas of land for hous- on the maximum sustainable catch. These results are ing. The model enables the user to look at the impact this based on the majority of the human population migrating will have on the housing situation on Male as well as on to Male and there being no additional construction on the the environment. In addition to the basic strategy, a varia- island. tion that includes coastal protection for reclaimed areas is The change in the price of foreign aggregate is con- examined. These strategies are described in Table 4.3. trolled by the user. A 1% decrease per year leads to a A few selected criteria (Table 4.4) highlight the main price of $1 50/m3. In the model, the price of coral rock differences between the economic development strategies. Table 4.1. Example growth scenarios (REF=reference scenario; POP=population growth rate scenario; OUT=out-migration scenario). Units REF POP OUT Overall economic growth rate %/I/yr 6 6 4 Growth in number of tourists %/o/yr 14 14 8 Investment in boats number 50 20 100 Change in price of foreign aggregate %/yr 3.5 -I 3.5 Population growth on Male %/yr 6 3 6 Population growth on inhabited islands %/./Yr 4 3 4 Out-migration from Male %/yr 0 0 2 Discount rate % 6 6 6 Number of years number 10 10 10 74 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling Table 4.2. Impacts of the growth scenarios (REF=reference scenario; POP=population growth rate scenario; OUT=out-migration scenario). Units REF POP OUT Population in 2005 number 125,000 96,000 104,000 Population on Male in 2005 number 112,000 84,000 95,000 Housing demand number 6,700 3,000 4,000 Demand for resort rooms number 7,000 7,000 2,800 Fisheries catch as percent of maximum % 77 70 87 Price of foreign aggregate US$/m3 230 150 230 Table 4.3. Description of economic development strategies. Scenario Housing Resorts 4ccessibility Coastal protection REF No specific action, No tourist No further No coastal protection resulting in the population developments developments moving to Male NOMIG Construction of houses NOMIG: no tourist Expansion or No coastal protection on local islands to meet developments; construction of the demands of natural NOMIG-N: four tourist harbors where population growth; developments in the additional houses are remaining population North of 100 rooms each; built; jetties built for the stays on Male although NOMIG-S: four tourist tourist resorts no specific housing or developments in the reclamation is carried out South of 100 rooms each RECLAIM Large reclamation No tourist Expansion or RECLAIM: no projects, housing the developments construction of the coastal protection; Male population growth harbors where RECLAIM-C: on Vilingili (500) and additional houses are sea walls Hulule (2,000) built constructed around reclaimed areas Table 4.4. Results of the economic development scenarios (REF, NOMIG and RECLAIM defined as in Table 4.3). Criteria Units REF NOMIG RECLAIM Population of Male number 86,300 84,000 60,300 Density on Male number/km2 51,000 50,000 36,000 Density on Hulule and Vilingili number/km2 480 630 40,000 Density on other inhabited islands number/km2 3,100 4,200 4,200 Housing demand number 2,960 2,700 -300 Area reclaimed in2 0 7,400 341,000 Area of reef lost in2 173,000 186,000 266,000 Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Coral Reef Management and Protection: A Case Study of the Republic of the Maldives 75 As yet, none of these have any environmental protection considering coral reef protection. The wastewater treat- measures to minimize the impacts. The model can also ment measures are also high in cost. Sheet piling would be used to see which areas are more heavily impacted not, at a first glance, seem a useful option. However, it through certain developments. For example, the devel- may create protection for the reefs surrounding the is- opment of four new resorts of 100 rooms each in the south lands. This could provide a valuable natural coastal func- is predicted to result in the loss of 208,000m2 of reef, while tion and an additional attraction for the island as a resort. if occurring in the north the loss is predicted to be These issues go beyond the initial costing carried out in 206,000m2 of reef. Thus, the costs of retaining coral reef this version of Coral-Maldives. health can be expected to be greater in the south due to Wastewater treatment measures are expensive when the more fragile systems that exist there as predicted by considering the range of options available for coral reef the model. management and protection. However, what is not seen The REF economic development scenario, with sus- in only examining these indicators is the public health tained high population growth, leaves a housing demand impact of clean wastewater and disposal beyond the reef. of approximately 3,000 houses. The reclamation of With the cost-effectiveness utilizing social indicators as a 0.8km2, along with the loss of 340,000m2 of reef through gage, these options may be higher in the ranking. It may mining and sedimentation, could satisfy that demand. be that no level of risk is acceptable for the public. Over a 20 year period, the demand is predicted to rise to The most cost-effective measures would appear to be 18,000 houses. Satisfying this through reclamation would those focusing on land use regulations. This may be in require a total of 2km2 of land to be reclaimed. This would the restriction of coral mining areas or the provision of keep the housing density of Male and on reclaimed land alternatives to the coral mining industry. Likewise, pro- at approximately 50,000 people per square kilometre. The tection of certain areas predicts an improvement in the model indicates a potential high risk of coastal erosion. reef health, assuming that impacts from sedimentation and However, further verification is required due to the pre- physical damage are reduced to a minimum. These have liminary nature of the data. Protecting the coastline, now similar cost-effectiveness; however, the exact ranking extended to 5km due to the reclamation, would cost in the varies considerably between each indicator. This dem- region of US$14 million based on the use of coral rock. onstrates the differences due to the selection of the par- Imported aggregates would cost approximately US$60 ticular indicator of coral reef health. million. The coral reef loss would be 500,000m2, as op- The effects of the individual measures are not cumu- posed to 600,000m2 if coral were to be mined. These lative. The results given above can be used as an indica- areas are, however, less than 1% of the total reef area of tor to prioritize which measures to take. The next step in North and South Male. the formulation of environmental protection options is to look at combinations of measures (i.e., strategies). The Environmental Protection Options user may have specific information on the budget avail- able for these interventions. The costs shown in this analy- As described previously, there are a series of environmen- sis are the total discounted 1995 dollar costs over the 10 tal protection options aimed to minimize the impacts of year period. Table 4.6 provides descriptions and the val- developments on the reefs. These can be examined on an ues used for the combinations of measures formulated for individual basis or combined into strategies (i.e., groups the analysis. Each strategy aims to focus on a specific or combinations of measures). In order to formulate ef- issue, goal or type of measure, covering control through fective strategies, the user can begin by examining each land use regulations, reduction in sediment reaching the measure on an individual bases. Table 4.5 describes a reef, and regulations focusing on the tourist resorts. series of measures defined for this analysis. As the first Figures 4.6 to 4.8 show the cost-effectiveness results step in the analysis, the aim is to explore the effectiveness of implementing the environmental protection strategies. of each of the measures in terms of changes to reef health Sediment mitigation through the use of sheet piling ap- and impact areas affected. pears to have limited effect. This may be for two reasons. Figures 4.3 to 4.5 show the results of the cost-effec- First, the developments in this example are small harbor tiveness analysis for the three indicators of coral reef health extensions and, in some cases, the associated reclamation (i.e., rugosity, coral cover and area of reef lost or gained). is only a few hundred square metres. Surrounding works There is some difference in the ranking of the strategies, with piling is going to have a more dramatic effect the depending on the indicators chosen. In all three cases, larger the reclamation and harbor works. Second, the area however, sheet piling is the most expensive option when of coral gained clearly reflects the implementation of 76 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling Table 4.5. Description of environmental protection measures. Measure Description Outfall (OUT) Disposal of sewage through outfalls on each island; orientation of the outfalls is towards the inside of the atolls. 10 marine parks (IOMP) A marine park is established in each section of 0.5kmn2 each. Setback (SET) Setback policy for tourist islands is implemented, generating no cost but may limit the number of rooms able to be constructed. Prohibit coral use This measure does not allow resorts to use coral rock for construction of resort rooms or sea for resorts (RES) defenses on resorts. Prohibit all use of Neither locals nor resorts are permitted to use coral rock for construction of houses and rooms or coral rock (ALL) sea defenses. Mining 100% Mining demand is satisfied through the selective mining of one reef to a depth of 15m. from Faro (IOOF) Prohibit local use This measure does not allow local islands to use coral rock for construction of houses or local of coral (LOC) sea defenses. 5 marine parks A marine park is established in each section of South Male of 0.5km2 each. in the South (MPS) 5 marine parks A marine park is established in each section of North Male of 0.5km2 each. in the North (MPN) Mining 50% 50% of the mining demand is satisfied through the selective mining of one reef to a depth from Faro (50F) of 15m. Secondary wastewater Sewage collected in a pump driven sewage system and treated through the construction of treatment (2WWT) secondary wastewater treatment plants on each island; subsequent disposal in the near-shore. Septic tanks (SEP) Sewage is treated through individual septic tanks and excess liquid collected in a gravity run sewage system before being disposed in the near-shore. Sheet piling (SHP) All coastal construction works are surrounded by sheet piling to restrain sediment flow. million US$ per unit rugosity million US$ per % change in coral cover 6,00016 5,00014 4,000 3,000 2,00060M E N 1,000 0~~~~~~~~~~2 -1,000 M F 1 Figure 4.3. Cost-effectiveness of environmental Figure 4.4. Cost-effectiveness of environmental protection measures defined in terms protection measures defined in terms of rugosity as an indicator of coral of coral cover as an indicator of coral reef health (environmental protection reef health (environmental protection measures defined in Table 4.5). measures defined in Table 4.5). Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Coral Reef Management and Protection: A Case Study of the Republic of the Maldives 77 US$ per m2 change in reef area marine parks. In these areas, any impacts are assumed to be reduced to a minimum, resulting in an improvement of 1,400 the reef in many cases. 1,200 Again, one should also consider the public health 1,200 issue. Although the options of treating sewage are ex- 1,000 pensive when considering reef health, they should not be ruled out as valuable alternatives in terms of public health. 800 Likewise, the indicators of housing densities are impor- 600 tant when considering social issues. One could also consider indicators of social accept- 400 ability through the use of user-defined criteria. For ex- ample, the ZERO option does not require any specific 200 actions to be taken and, as such, may be more acceptable. 0 LANDUSE requires people to be retrained, potentially LOC SET ALL RES 10OF MPS 10MP MPN 50F OUT SEP 2WWT SHP resulting in the loss of jobs. It may also prohibit use of certain areas for traditional activities. In addition, for Figure 4.5. Cost-effectiveness of environmental both of these strategies there is assumed to have been no protection measures defined in terms awareness programs to inform the public as to the need of reef area as an indicator of coral for these strategies. The strategy ALL considers this as- reef health (environmental protection pect. The total cost of the proposed awareness program measures defined in Table 4.5). is estimated at less than 1% of the total costs. Table 4.6. Description of environmental protection strategies. Landuse Sediment Tourist All Description Protection of reefs Reduction of Restrictions for Combination of through land use sedimentation tourist resorts all measures to regulations reaching the reefs regarding building improve the regulations and environment waste disposal Sewage treatment None Secondary Disposal through Disposal through treatment outfalls on tourist outfalls islands Setback policy On tourist islands None Yes Yes Marine parks 10 marine parks of None 10 marine parks 10 marine parks 0.5km2 each of 0.5km2 each of 0.5km2 each Mining locations None None 100% Faro Use of coral rock Prohibit all None Prohibit in tourist None industry Awareness raising None None None US$1 million spent on environmental awareness Sheet piling None For all construction On tourist resorts For all construction Open jetties None All On tourist resorts All 78 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling million US$ per unit rugosity million US$ per % change in coral cover 6,000 160 5,000 140 4,000 3,000 80 2,000 6 1,000 4 0~~~~~~~~~~2 Landuse Tourist All Sediment 0 Tuit Lnue Al Sdmn Tourist Landuse All Sediment Figure 4.6. Cost-effectiveness of environmental protection strategies defined in terms Figure 4.7. Cost-effectiveness of environmental of rugosity as an indicator of coral protection strategies defined in terms reef health (environmental protection of coral cover as an indicator of coral strategies defined as in Table 4.6). reef health (environmental protection strategies defined as in Table 4.6). Conclusions US$ per m2 change in reef area 1 400~ The two objectives of the Coral-Maldives model were to ' 0 test and validate the cost-effectiveness analysis model of 1,200 coral reef management and protection and to investigate whether the cost-effectiveness analysis model can be a 1,000 useful tool for decision support for coastal zone manage- ment in the Republic of the Maldives. This chapter has 800 described the model and examined different analyses. The 60 model was presented to the decision-makers within the 60 Ministry of Planning, Human Resources and the Envi- 400 ronment of the Republic of the Maldives in late 1996. As a result of the work completed up to that time, the 200 following conclusions can be drawn and further recom- mendations made as to future developments of the model. 0 TuitLnue Al Sdmn Tourist Landuse All Sediment Cost-Effectiveness Analysis Figure 4.8. Cost-effectiveness of environmental protection strategies defined in terms Ranking the interventions in terms of their cost-effec- .ofeef aratasian dicao of coral tiveness for coral reef management and protection is a of reef area as an inmdcator of coral useful and potentially valuable tool for reef managers. strategies defined as in Table 4.6). The results from the Coral-Maldives model should pro- vide reef managers with a clearer picture of the different options available and the likely benefits and costs associ- environmental protection measures and changes in coral ated with these management interventions. There are, reef health. For instance, the issue of public health or however, an array of potential indicators describing the coastal erosion and flooding risk may not be taken into success or failure of a coastal zone management strategy. account. These are important factors when analyzing These may be ignored by focusing only on the costs of options for coastal zone management. Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Coral Reef Management and Protection: A Case Study of the Republic of the Maldives 79 The Maldives case study shows different results from The model was formulated during discussions with vari- the case studies carried out in Jamaica (Ruitenbeek et al. ous government agencies where the main issues currently 1999a; Chapter 8) and Curacao (Rijsberman and West- of concern and the alternatives available to management macott 1996; Chapter 4). The three case studies take geo- were identified. The issues in the decision support sys- graphically different areas. In the Jamaica case study, the tem should, therefore, be a fair representation of the cur- construction of an outfall appears to be a cost-effective rent concerns of the Maldives. The model should be able measure; however, this is a stand-alone intervention that, to highlight these issues and show the different impacts in the Maldives, is connected to either a pumped sewage alternative strategies may have on a series of coastal zone system or a gravity sewage system in combination with management indicators. Within these indicators, the user septic tanks. The land use zoning programs in the Jamai- can examine the cost-effectiveness of each strategy as can case are some of the most cost-effective measures. described above. This pattern is also seen in the Maldives case study. The decision support system is aimed at decision-mak- The Curagao case study focuses much more on land- ers as well as analysts. The structure is such that ana- based pollutants as these were identified as the major lysts can prepare and save case studies that can be later local threats to the reefs. In the Maldives, industrial ac- assessed and utilized by the decision-makers. During the tivity is very small and damage from sewage is low due comparison of cases, there is a ranking option that can be to the high flushing from the relatively strong water move- used to centralize discussions around the selection of cases. ments; thus, the focus is on minimizing physical damage These rankings can also be saved and retrieved for later to the reefs. The Curacao study primarily examines the discussions or analyses. The following sections discuss different options for treating wastewater flows. Land use the potential use of the model as a decision-making tool regulations are again different. In the Maldives, the pro- and suggest ways to improve or further develop the model. tected areas are assumed to be away from sources of pol- The following areas were identified as potential uses lution and are feasible due to the large area of reefs. It is of the model: assumed these areas are able to be protected from physi- 1. Coastal zone maniagement workshops and training cal damage. The situation in Curacao is different in the programs. Coral-Maldives would be suited to a train- sense that the water quality standards that may be imposed ing workshop for coastal zone management. Partici- for marine parks are entirely dependant on the ability of pants could include analysts, where model capabilities, industries and local government to pay for the interven- data needs, formulation of the scenarios and strate- tions to reach these standards. The cost of implementing gies, and selection of the more successful measures a marine park can be taken into account; however, the or strategies are discussed. Alternatively, workshops toal cost,rineparkcludig steater intreatnt; facilies toe may be held for decision-makers who can examine the alternatives formulated by the analysts and use the reach marine park standards, should also be examined, decision support system as the discussion forum where Cost-effectiveness is a useful indicator to rank the specific objectives and indicators, as well as the even- different strategies and start to prioritize individual meas- tual ranking of alternatives, is the focus. ures. This could play a substantial role in assisting deci- 2. Preparation of scenarios for environmental reports. sion-makers in formulating environmental protection Coral-Maldives can be used to illustrate the impact strategies. These, in turn, can be compared as to their that different future development scenarios may have effectiveness for coral reef management. Taking the on the environment. The decision support system broader view of coastal zone management, the use of such provides a quick method of viewing and comparing an indicator for the assessment of projects and plans can different scenarios. These can be used to illustrate be complimentary to other coastal zone management in- environmental reports showing the likely impact of dicators. Coral-Maldives demonstrates the use of these certain development options. The model is not, how- additional indicators. ever, formulated at a level of detail capable of carry- ing out individual project assessments. Rather, it can indicate trends over the simulation period. The data Decision Support System for used has had to be adapted and, in many cases, esti- Coastal Zone Management mated. For more detailed results, new data sets will be required. The second objective of the model was to develop a deci- 3. Analysis of different regional development plans. sion support system for coastal zone management that Similar to the preparation of scenarios for reports, the could eventually aid the decision-makers in the Maldives model can be used to input and examine the impacts in the formulation oftheir coastal zone management plans. of alternative regional development plans. The model 80 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling focuses on coastal zone management issues and may, Further Developments of the Model however, miss some social issues such as provision of schools and hospitals, and the provision of fresh The model was received well in the Maldives. Several drinking water. The spatial extent of the model is suggestions were made as to how the model could be ex- also limited to North and South Male in this version panded and improved. One of the first tasks should be to and is not able to show the impacts of, for example, achieve wide acceptance of such a decision-making tool decentralization strategies. The model will give graph- and, through training of different departments, allow the ical information on the likely impacts of the different tool to be updated and further developed. The following plans and will allow the decision-makers to compare sections highlight the issues brought to light for use of the results under a series of different indicators. the model and its futher development. 4. Identification of areas to protect or develop. Coral- Maldives can show trends likely to be seen rather than Cost-Effectiveness Analysis point to specific reefs that should be protected or iden- . . . i tify certain islands more suitable for development than Stdies wee ontinuent caserstd itesdof vuao others. It will, however, show the differences at the and Jamaica (see subsequent chapters), icludig valua- level of the sections defined in the model of the im- tion studies and consideration of the benefits and costs pacts of protection measures or development. Like- associated with changes seen in the reef health as a result wise, the model distinguishes between developments of environmental protection measures. These studies pro- on the islands of the inner and outer sections of the vide additional valuable indicators for decision-makers, atoll and the orientation of developments actually on leading to a clearer understanding than information re- the island. garding a change in the physical state of the reef alone 5. Environmental impact assessments. Environmental may do. impact assessments (EIAs) tend to be carried out for a specific project. As the model stands, the scale is Spatial Extent of the Model too general for specific project evaluations. How- One main comment received was to expand the model to ever, the concept and much of the techniques used for modeling could be used to create a projtect-based EIA cover the whe user to examine the possibilities of as- tool, given further detailing and verification by ground data collection. This could be a useful tool for non- sessing the development of different atolls. At this level professionals to carry out analysis of environmental of regional planning, users would be able to obtain a impacts. For example, a tool freely available to resort clearer picture of altemative development plans. This developers may allow certain developments to be would require additional data at the same level as is cur- redesigned on the basis of more firm environmental rently in the model. The data would cover population evidence. and other socio-economic data, and physical data such as 6. Indicators for coastal zone management. Coral- island size, reef conditions, and exposure of the islands. Maldives contains a series of coastal zone management Such a model would allow the user to assess the impacts indicators. These can also be added to by user-defined and explore the altematives to various regional develop- criteria. This allows the user to include recently aris- ment plans. ing information or issues. The structure of Coral- Maldives also allows the user to focus on the objec- Inclusion of Additional Issues tives of the management plan through the selection of the indicators. It may also stimulate discussions of In addition to expanding the spatial extent of the model, gaps missing in the analysis and identify issues that certain additional issues were also identified as important may not otherwise have been discussed. for coastal zone management in the region: 7. Establishment of an environmental database. The * Solid waste. The issue of solid waste was not included Ministry of Planning, Human Resources and the En- in the current version of the model. It was omitted due vironment (MPHRE) of the Republic of the Maldives to the focus on environmental impacts that were quan- is working towards the establishment of an environ- tified in terms of sediment and physical damage. The mental database. Coral-Maldives contains data that issue of solid waste and the impacts of dumping or in- has been collected from a variety of sources. The data cineration in selected sites is a current topic of concem used in the model can be either used to add to the for the Maldives. For example, limitations on the database or as a basis for a new database. Updating amount of land area available has resulted in the infilling the data, both in the MPHRE environmental database of a lagoon close to the capital, Male. The alternatives and in the model database can be achieved through are limited; however, the full impacts of these actions the training of MPHRE staff. have not been fully examined. Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Coral Reef Management and Protection: A Case Study of the Republic of the Maldives 81 Vulnerability toflooding. Another issue that is not in- should be examined from the perspective of additional cluded in the current version of Coral-Maldives is the data requirements and software availability. Such a de- increased risk of flooding resulting from reclamation velopment to the current Coral-Maldives model could be works. Impacts of reclamation are seen in tenns of in- creased coastal erosion that can be mitigated through earned out as a capacity buildig exercise. the construction of coastal protection works. A useful Environmental Impact Assessment and method of including the effects of erosion and the likely Project Evaluation risk of flooding is for the user to select a risk level that The present version of Coral-Maldives is not designed to is acceptable and the costs of achieving this will be computed through the model. To fully implement such be used for project evaluation. The level of detail has a model, data and information would need to be col- been generalized and the islands grouped into sections. lected on the current erosion patterns on the islands. In If sucb a model were to be available for project evalua- addition, if longer time scales were examined, the abil- tion, the level of detail required would need to be far ity of the reefs to keep pace with sea level rise could be greater. It could be that data is collected for certain proj- incorporated. ect evaluations and that a model is developed for that Database island or situation only. The detail contained in the model would again be more in-depth and relevant to the specific The data included in the model will require continued proe h tutr fteaayi ol,hwvr updating and expanding. Certain parts of the database follo The structure of the culdn deiio follow the same structure as that of the current decision are based on expert judgment, rather than actual field support system. measurements. This may be adequate for the current model; however, this could be improved in subsequent The current version of the model shows the major trends revisions, particularly if more detail was required for more in the socio-economic conditions and environmental health project-orientated analyses. In particular, data on erosion of one section of the Republic of the Maldives. The model rates, sediment loadings from construction, impact areas is capable of facilitating discussions and being utilized as surrounding land reclamation works, reef health param- a training tool, and is valuable in the identification of ar- eters available on a larger scale, reef areas surrounding eas requiring additional information and data collection. islands, and those areas utilized for mining activities are The model can be seen as the basis of an environmental suggested points of focus for data improvements, database and, through its further development, could be Development of the Decision Support System used in a capacity strengthening exercise for various gov- Certain ares.otedcisonsporsytemcl emient ministries within the Maldives. Additional is- Certain areas of the decision support system could also susadiictrcnbedednasmlrmne. sues and indicators can be added in a similar manner. be improved. Optional ways of defiing the environmental protection measures, for instance, could assist the deci- pdasong of the modelwcould be routine sion-maker. For example, selecting the type of wastewater per withn theou w o b nl treatment for each island does not give a clear indication for mamtenance and development of the level of treatment that will be received. The user could, in theory, also select the public health risk that he or she is willing to accept or the reduction level required and the model could select for each island the least ex- pensive and most effective method for that particular ca- pacity. The user could also be able to spatially define the mining areas and, with more detailed information on reef health, the user could expand these to include defining more specifically the actual reefs targeted for protection. GIS Options for Display of Results The analysis stage in the decision support system allows the users to examine the result in tabular format as well as more detailed information in charts. Geographic infor- mation system (GIS) tools and applications may be able to improve this display of results, linking the datasets to the graphical locations. The feasibility of achieving this Chapter 5 Values Associated with the Local Use of the Montego Bay Marine Park Kent Gustavson Gustavson Ecological Resource Consulting, Gabriola, BC, Canada Local residents and tourists alike derive direct local use This chapter will outline the nature of those direct and benefits from coral reef ecosystems in the developing indirect local use values as they applyto the Montego Bay tropics, most often associated with recreation and near- Marine Park (the Park), Montego Bay, Jamaica. A meth- shorefisheries. Othermarketedbenefitsmayincludepar- odology is outlined and applied which derives the net ticipation in the aquarium trade, mariculture, crafts, coral present values of those direct and indirect uses for as many sand extraction, and bioprospecting. In addition to these base years as reliable and adequate data is available. It is direct benefits, in which components of the marine sys- through consideration of the local use values as reported tem input directly and explicitly into the economic activ- here, in conjunction with subsequent analyses regarding ity, there are also local indirect uses. Indirect benefits the ecological condition of the reefs and the sustainable can be defined as ecosystem functional contributions to level of reef use, that management authorities will be able economic production value, providing implicit and inte- to obtain more complete information on the extent of the gral support of economic activities. The most significant reef-derived economic benefits at risk of being lost if of these in terms of the developing tropics is likely the conservation efforts prove inadequate. coastal protection that coral reefs afford. Other indirect benefits that may be enjoyed include support of the off- shore fisheries through ecological interactions. Methodology The issue of valuing marine system structural and Theoretical Context: The Production Function Model functional diversity (or biodiversity) can be concemed with the creation of artificial markets (e.g., option, bequest Before the local use values are derived, it is important to and existence values revealed through contingent valua- place this exercise within the context of a theoretical tion, in which estimates of individual or society's utility model. In this case, the marine resources themselves are associated with the system are made), or the creation of envisioned as contributing to an economic productive new markets (e.g., bioprospecting, in which estimates of process as traditionally described with a production func- system value through a distribution of profits or value- tion. Economic valuation studies of natural systems most added associated with marine product development are often distinguish use from non-use values, and direct use made). Both the creation of new and artificial markets to from indirect use values. Rather than maintaining the estimate marine system values help ensure that the total distinction between direct and indirect use values based economic value of biodiversity is taken into account when on using either a direct or indirect method of estimation, management decisions are being made. While it is in- this study will consider both to ultimately be supply- deed important to create or reveal markets to measure the oriented production function contributions of marine full benefits of marine biodiversity, direct and indirect use systems to economic value. In other words, we are con- values reflected in existing, well established markets are cemed with measuring the contributions of marine eco- similarly important to consider. Indeed, particularly in systems to the value of output in a produced good or developing nations where government accounting systems service. The isolation of direct from indirect benefits is may be less than adequate, local use values associated only useful from the point of view of measurement. Thus, with particular marine systems tend to be inaccurately or the direct and indirect use value distinction was main- inadequately represented in resource decision-making and tained only so far as we discuss how the values were policy development. estimated. 84 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling The contribution of marine systems to economic value The focus of this study on the three primary categories through a production function is most readily envisioned of uses, and thus avoiding detailed examination of other using a Cobb-Douglas model: minor local uses, is in keeping with the experience of other investigations into the local use benefits of coral reefs Q = Q{L, K, R} (e.g., Dahuri 1996; Dixon 1992; Pendleton 1995; Sawyer where L = labor; 1992; Tomascik 1993; Weber and Saunders 1996) which demonstrate that analyses should focus on a small number K = capital; and, of benefits. Recognizing limitations and constraints on R = resource base (or biodiversity). research resources, it is through the detailed documenta- tion and modeling of a small number of local uses that In such a model, the value of marine systems or bio- more valuable information can be gained regarding the diversity is the marginal change in Q as R changes. Thus, changes in benefits realized through changes in the qual- the economic value of the contribution of the coral reefs ity of the resource. Furthermore, more detailed model- in Montego Bay associated with one unit of reef of a ing of a few direct use values will provide a benchmark given quality is the change in the value of the output that from which to examine other, less significant local use is achieved with a one unit increase in reef, holding all values for which less detailed information is available. other inputs constant. This benefit model, along with This approach will ultimately lead to a model which pro- separately modeled costs (Chapters 8 and 9), facilitates vides the maximum amount of information, given practi- the examination of economic efficiencies associated with cal research limitations, for input into Park management reef management decisions which result in changes m decision-making and the establishment of policy. reef quality. This report will not explicitly derive specific production functions, but make the first step by describ- Net Present Values of Direct and ing the inputs and the values attributed to the use of the Indirect Local Uses resource. To arrive at the annual value of the contribution of the Information Sources coral reefs of Montego Bay Marine Park to direct and indirect economic activities, the net value of those ac- Direct and indirect uses of the Montego Bay Marine Park tivities was calculated. The net value is the remainder of waters were identified for the purposes of value estima- the total monetary value of the benefits once all existing tion during a site visit in January and February 1998. The economic claims to the production have been deducted. primary means of data collection was document analysis This remainder is the economic production claim which and database search. The types of documents and data- can be attributed to the marine system. bases analyzed included government department records To calculate the net value associated with coral reef and reports, census and survey statistics, non-government use, all variable costs which represent a claim on economic organization and academic reports, Montego Bay Marine production were first deducted from the gross receipts of Park documents, and consultants' reports. This study also the economic activity. This included the costs of utilities, benefited from the information made available through a operating services sold to the businesses, repairs and concurrent project-a rapid socio-economic assessment maintenance, goods and materials, government license and of fishers, water sports and hotel operations-the results registration fees, insurance, and the opportunity costs of of which are reported elsewhere (Bunce and Gustavson labor. It does not include such items as government taxes 1998a; Chapter 11). and subsidies (transfer payments) as these are not pay- Direct local use values that can be attributed to the ments for activities which involve economic production benefits achieved through the use of the Park were esti- per se. Similarly, any internal financial transactions, such mated on an annual basis for two broad categories of uses as depreciation, or external financial transactions, such -the near-shore fisheries and tourism. Indirect use val- as bank interest payments, are not included. ues associated with coastal protection were also estimated. The net operating values were then translated to true These local uses of the Park waters were identified as the net values where the available data allowed by converting most significant during the final study site application, as the value of capital investments or stocks to annual flow well as being ofthe highestpolicypriority. Table 5.1 shows values to be deducted from the annual net operating val- the primary sources of the data used and describes the ues. The equivalent annual capital cost can be estimated nature of the information. through the use of an annuity factor: Values Associated with the Local Use of the Montego Bay Marine Park 85 E = C time preference rate. To illustrate the sensitivity of the AF analysis to the chosen discount rate, three rates are sepa- rately assumed in the calculations-5%, 10% and 15% where E= equivalent annual capital cost; per annum. The NPV is thus represented as C = value of capital at cost; and, (R - C) NV AF = annuity factor. NPV _=( ) An infinite time horizon is assumed, such that AF = l1/i, where R = revenue; where i is the discount rate used in the specific value cal- C = costs; culation. Total values of capital investments considered i = discount rate (5%, 10%, and 15%); and, available values at cost of buildings, equipment, and land. NV= annual net value. Information regarding the value of capital at cost was not always forthcoming or possible to reasonably estimate. In all instances, conversion from Jamaican to US dollars In those instances, a full-cycle analysis was not possible, assumed J$35.5 = US$1 based on the average of the me- and the net operating values are reported. These cases dian bid and the median asking price in world markets are explicitly noted in the results. on the first of the month for the first five months of 1998. For the next step in the calculation, we assume that a Where it was necessary to convert from 1998 values to continuing, sustainable use is possible at the level of use equivalent 1996 dollar estimates, an average annual for the given year, and that the total value in which we are domestic inflation rate of 28% was assumed based on a interested takes into account an infinite stream of net 10 year average of the annual implicit price deflator for annual benefits. Thus, the net present value (NPV) for total GDP for Jamaica from 1987 through 1996 (source: each direct and indirect benefit is calculated. The NPV Statistical Institute of Jamaica). can be simply thought of as the current equivalent net value associated with use of the Park waters, or the con- Interpreting Optimal or Sustainable Level of Use tribution of marine biodiversity to productive economic output summed annually over an infinite time stream. It must be emphasized that the derivation of NPVs here Future values are discounted in order to reflect the social is not a cost-benefit analysis per se. In a cost-benefit Table 5.1 Information used for deriving local use values associated with the Montego Bay Marine Park Use value Information source Nature of the information Tourism OAS (1994) * detailed revenue and expense analysis for the tourism sector in Jamaica as whole for 1992 Annual Travel Statistics, * annual tourist arrivals, tourist Jamaica Tourist Board expenditures, and accommodations sales Jamaica Promotions Corporation * capital cost models for accommodations Near-shore fisheries Registration of Fishermen Database, * number and type of fishers and Fisheries Division, Jamaican Ministry number of boats of Agriculture Bunce and Gustavson (1998a) * types of fishing activities in Park waters, fishing revenues and costs Nicholson (1994) * fishing revenues and costs Coastal protection Jamaica Promotions Corporation * shoreline land values Urban Development Corporation * shoreline land values various local real estate agencies * shoreline land values local land developers * shoreline land values 86 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling analysis, one would compare the economic value of the the average daily visitor expenditures of stop-over and resource after an intervention (e.g., a management strat- cruise-ship passengers into estimated total annual expen- egy which would improve reef conditions) with the eco- ditures in Montego Bay. The total number of stop-over nomic value before an intervention. This chapter does visitors arriving in Montego Bay that remain in the greater not consider the effect of possible management interven- Montego Bay area was not available; thus, it was assumed tions on the economic value derived from the reefs of to be equivalent to the average number of bed-nights sold Montego Bay Marine Park, or the changes in derived value in hotels divided by the average length of a stop-over tour- with changes in reef quality. The NPVs reported here ist stay. Cruise-ship passengers arriving in the Montego represent the value at risk. In other words, it is the direct Bay terminal are assumed to spend their shore time in the and indirect local use values which would be lost if the greater Montego Bay area and spend an average of one resource was completely degraded. day in port. The validity of the assumption that the benefits will Rather than rely on estimates of tourist expenditures continue to be received in perpetuity must ultimately be from departing-tourist surveys, a study by the OAS (1994) checked against biophysical information regarding the based its economic analysis of the tourism sector in 1992 conditions of the reefs in Montego Bay as they have on a survey of the actual revenues and costs associated changed over time. Moreover, any future or continuing withtourism-relatedbusinesses. AsnotedbyOAS(1994), changes in reef ecological conditions will necessarily have using tourist expenditure informnation is limited mainly due an effect on the current levels of local use. There are two to the fact that expenditures outside of the country for the notable documented ecological surveys (Hitchman 1997; vacation (e.g., vacation packages) may not coincide with Sullivan and Chiappone 1994) which examine reef con- the amount actually received by the domestic businesses ditions in the Montego Bay Marine Park. As well, there involved, and the information itself may be compromised is additional information available on the reef conditions by tourists' abilities to recall expenditures accurately dur- as perceived by the primary user groups; this latter infor- ing surveys. The main disadvantage associated with the mation is outlined in Chapter 11. approach of the OAS (1994) is that some businesses, such This report will not attempt to make assumptions re- as street vendors and miscellaneous retail establishments, garding the sustainable level of local use, but instead will were excluded from the analysis as they were not specifi- report NPVs for as many base years as there is reliable cally targeted for information collection. infornation. The coral reefs of Montego Bay are part of The OAS (1994) study reported results for Jamaica as a highly complex system, involving interactions between a whole; thus, the specific revenue and cost profiles cited ecological components, user groups, and land-based ac- could not be used in this investigation. It was assumed, tivities. Although there are certainly negative ecological however, that the cost structures and net values reported impacts associated with increases in the levels of certain for Jamaica remain proportionately the same for the Mon- types of local uses, the relationship is not simple, nor can tego Bay area. Table 5.4 shows net values as a percentage the ecological impacts be easily isolated from other coastal of total revenues for 1992 by the type of business, and the and land-based activities. The high degree of system un- reconciliation ofthe categories used by the JamaicaTourist certainty, as well as system links, synergisms and feed- Board (JTB) with those used by the OAS. Where more backs, make assumptions regarding the sustainable level than one OAS category was placed in the same JTB cat- of use difficult. Such an exercise is best tackled through egory (i.e., transportation and entertainment), the net value a synthesis of these results with other modeling strategies as a percentage of the total revenue that was assigned to and biophysical information. the JTB category was determined by weighting each OAS component according to the OAS category's share of total revenue for all OAS categories within the JTB category. Net Present Values of Local Uses For tourist expenditures registered as "miscellaneous" for which there is no specific cost and revenue structure available in OAS (1994), the weighted average of 20.1% for the whole tourism sector was used. Direct economic account information was not available Table 5.5 shows the annual net values for 1985 through for the tourism sector. For statistical purposes, the Jamaica 1996 attributed to stop-over and cruise-ship passenger Tourist Board places tourists who visit Montego Bay into expenditures, as well as for the tourism sector as a whole. two categories-stop-over (airline arrival) and cruise-ship Table 5.6 shows the annual net values broken-down for passengers. Tables 5.2 and 5.3 show the conversion of each tourism sector for 1996 using available information Values Associated with the Local Use of the Montego Bay Marine Park 87 Table 5.2 Estimated total annual expenditures by stop-over visitors remaining in Montego Bay Average Number of Proportion of Average Estimated Total length of stay bed-nights Montego Bay individual total Montego Bay (all Jamaican sold in stop-over arrivals daily annual stop-over stop-over Montego Bay remaining in expenditures expenditure Year arrivalsa visitors)b hotelsc Montego Bayd (current US$)e (current US$)f 1985 278142 9.8 1239990 0.45 73 9.lxlO7 1986 315824 10.2 1494526 0.46 78 1.2x108 1987 290404 10.2 1684754 0.57 77 1.3x108 1988 349831 10.3 1374281 0.38 76 L.Ox108 1989 273817 10.6 1421957 0.49 78 L.1x108 1990 299301 10.9 1647016 0.50 80 1.3x108 1991 290712 10.9 1558927 0.49 79 1.2x108 1992 304022 11.2 1676197 0.49 84 1.4x108 1993 317078 11.0 1764017 0.51 85 1.5x108 1994 270711 10.7 1511778 0.52 84 1.3x108 1995 280790 10.9 1644600 0.54 87 1.4x108 1996 294466 11.1 1666043 0.51 85 1.4x108 Average 287995 10.4 1530376 0.52 n/a n/a a Statistics for 1994, 1995 and 1996 from the Jamaica Tourist Board included non-resident Jamaicans. As these numbers were not included prior to 1994, the number of non-resident Jamaicans arriving in Montego Bay for the three latter years was removed. This specific number was not available; thus, it was estimated from national level statistics assuming that the proportion of non-resident stop-over arrivals to total stop-over arrivals was comparable. Source: Annual Travel Statistics, Jamaica Tourist Board. b Source: Annual Travel Statistics, Jamaica Tourist Board. Source: Annual Travel Statistics, Jamaica Tourist Board. d Estimated by dividing the average number of bed-nights sold by the average length of stay and expressing this number as a proportion of the total number of stop-over arrivals in Montego Bay. Source: Annual Travel Statistics, Jamaica Tourist Board. Estimated by multiplying the total number of bed-nights sold in hotels by the average individual daily expenditure of stop-over tourists. by type of expenditure. Table 5.7 shows the NPVs for the Direct Local Use: Near-shore Fishery years 1985 through 1996 using the results from Table 5.5. Due to the unavailability of capital cost information Historic systematic and reliable infornation on the size (land, buildings and equipment), the NPVs reported here of the near-shore, artisanal fishery in Jamaica is not avail- represent a partial cycle analysis. It should also be noted able (e.g., see survey by Sahney 1982). Regular records that the estimated labor costs used in this analysis are the of the number of fishers and the method of fishing began accounting costs of labor and not necessarily the oppor- when the Fisheries Division of the Govermment of Jamaica tunity cost. The extent of the available information did initiated a Registration of Fishermen Database in 1995. not allow for the reasonable estimation of the accounting Economic information regarding fisheries in Jamaica is labor cost components and the subsequent derivation of even more limited. Espeut (1992) and Espeut and Grant the opportunity costs. Given the large size of the tourism (1990) provide information, yet this information is not sector and the predominant use of relatively low-skilled directly applicable to the near-shore fisheries in the Mon- labor, any discrepancies are not expected to be large. tego Bay area. Nicholson (1994) conducted a spring 1994 88 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling Table 5.3 Estimated total annual expenditures by cruise-ship passengers arriving in Montego Bay Average individual Estimated total Total Montego Bay Average daily expenditures annual expenditure Year cruise-ship arrivalsa length of stay (current US$)b (current US$)c 1985 72251 1.0 49 3.5x106 1986 93846 1.0 52 4.9x106 1987 77356 1.0 50 3.9x106 1988 92712 1.0 50 4.6x106 1989 97250 1.0 48 4.7x106 1990 70485 1.0 70 4.9x106 1991 136395 1.0 73 1.0x107 1992 221997 1.0 51 l.lx107 1993 181207 1.0 69 1.3x107 1994 154238 1.0 83 1.3x107 1995 193392 1.0 83 1.6x107 1996 200491 1.0 85 1.7x107 Average 119475 1.0 n/a n/a a Non-resident Jamaicans included in statistics from 1989 through 1996. Source: Annual Travel Statistics, Jamaica Tourist Board. b Source: Annual Travel Statistics, Jamaica Tourist Board. Estimated by multiplying the total number of cruise-ship visitors by the average individual daily expenditure of stop-over tourists. Table 5.4 Results of OAS (1994) analysis showing the net values as a percentage of total revenues for the main private sector tourist firms in Jamaica for 1992, and the reconciliation with the Jamaica Tourist Board categories Net value as a Reconciliation with Net value percentage percentage of Jamaica Tourist by Jamaica Tourist Type of business total revenue Board categories Board category All-inclusive hotels 19.0 - - Other hotels 24.8 Guest houses, villas and apartments 18.9 - - Other accommodations 17.8 All accommodations 20.9 Accommodations 20.9 Restaurants and bars 13.4 Food and beverage 13.4 Tour operators 14.5 Entertainment 37.1 Recreation, attraction and sports 47.9 Entertainment 37.1 Taxis 3.1 Transportation 16.7 Car rentals 36.1 Transportation 16.7 Other transportation 17.7 Transportation 16.7 In-bond shopping 5.3 Shopping 5.3 Weighted average 20.1 Values Associated with the Local Use of the Montego Bay Marine Park 89 socio-economic survey offishing activities in the Montego is distributed equally among the captain and crew who Bay Marine Park. This represents the only pre-existing operated the fishing vessel (the captain is also usually, source of economic information for this study. A rapid but not always, the owner of the boat). As there are usu- socio-economic assessment of the primary user groups of ally two individuals fishing from one boat, each captain the Park also provided valuable information (Bunce and and crew member take 25% of the catch. Where there are Gustavson 1998a; Chapter 11). more than two fishers, the income is accordingly less (e.g., Typical of artisanal fisheries in Jamaica, there is an if there are two crew members and one captain, individuals income share arrangement between the crews, captains, take one third of 50% ofthe catch, or approximately 17%). and owners of the boats. Understanding this share ar- This share arrangement, however, is varied at times. rangement is critical to understanding the distribution of Owners may decrease the percentage share retained for the economic benefits. The arrangement at White House the boat when the catches are low so that the crew receive and River Bay, the two largest landing beaches, typically higher incomes. involves 50% of the gross value of the catch or weight of Estimates of revenues from fishing based on the num- the catch going to the owner of the boat to cover oper- beroffishingtripsperweek, average catches, averageprice ating expenses, equipment maintenance expenses, and as of fish per pound, and the boat sharing arrangements are a return for the capital investmnent. The remaining 50% shown in Table 5.8. Of the methods of fishing for which Table 5.5 Annual net values (millions of current US$) for tourism in Montego Bay, 1985-1996 Annual net value derived Annual net value derivedfrom Total tourism sector Year from stop-over expenditures cruise-ship passenger expenditures annual net value 1985 18.3 0.704 19.0 1986 24.1 0.985 25.1 1987 26.1 0.784 26.9 1988 20.1 0.925 21.0 1989 22.1 0.945 23.0 1990 26.1 0.985 27.1 1991 24.1 2.010 26.1 1992 28.1 2.210 30.3 1993 30.2 2.610 32.8 1994 26.1 2.610 28.7 1995 28.1 3.220 31.3 1996 28.1 3.420 31.5 Table 5.6 Annual net values (millions of current US$) by sector category for tourism in Montego Bay for 1996 Total tourism sector Accom- Food and Enter- Trans- Miscel- sector annual modation beverage tainment portation Shopping laneous net value Stop-over visitors 17.73 0.88 5.82 1.50 0.73 2.05 28.70 Cruise-ship passengers 0.00 0.02 0.75 0.08 0.65 0.41 1.91 Total 17.73 0.90 6.57 1.58 1.38 2.46 30.60 % of total 57.9 2.9 21.5 5.2 4.5 8.0 100 90 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling Table 5.7 Net present values (millions of current US$) by year for tourism in Montego Bay, 1985-1996 Year i = 5% i = 10% i = 15% 1985 380 190 127 1986 502 251 167 1987 538 269 179 1988 420 210 140 1989 460 230 153 1990 542 271 181 1991 522 261 174 1992 606 303 202 1993 656 328 219 1994 574 287 191 1995 626 313 209 1996 630 315 210 there is sufficient economic information, hand line, trap, then estimated to be J$5500 per boat for net, trap, hand net and spear fishing occur within Park waters. Using the line fishing (assuming an average of one captain and one 1995 statistics for the total number of fishers by fishing crew member per boat), and J$2750 per spear fisher. method by beach and applying them proportionately to These costs are deducted from gross fishing earnings the 1998 estimated total number of boats and fishers by along with the previously cited estimate of 25% of gross landing beach, we can arrive at an estimate for the number for operating expenses. The derivation of the overall net of boats and fishers using Park waters (Table 5.9). We operating values are shown in Table 5.10. can then use these results to arrive at an estimate for the Nicholson (1994) estimated the average value of the total number of "owners" (owners of boats for hand line, boat capital assets (including vessels and engines) to be trap, and net fishing; sole operators for spear fishing). on average J$58,000 (current 1994 dollars) per owner. Nicholson (1994) estimated that total operating costs This is approximately equivalent to J$ 156,000 in current for fishers (less labor payments) were between 11% and 1998 dollars. The equivalent annual capital costs are 34% of gross revenues. 25% was assumed here for the thus J$7,800 for i = 0.05, J$15,600 for i = 0.10, and calculation of net operating values for all forms of fishing J$23,400 for i = 0.15 for each boat owner. These figures (indications from interviews with fishers during the field are then deducted from the annual net operating values portion of the study supported this approximation). In for net, trap, and hand line fishing owners (but not for other words, approximately 75% of the gross receipts for spear fishers) as shown in Table 5.10, yielding 1998 net net, trap, hand line, and spear fishing can be assumed to annual values. Total deductions for annual capital cost be operating surplus less the deduction for the payment equivalents are thus J$5.46xlO1 for i = 0.05, J$1.09x106 to labor. for i = 0.10, and J$1.64x106 for i = 0.15. The resulting In 1996, the average hourly wage for large estab- net annual values are then converted to NPVs (Table 5.11). lishments, all sectors for Jamaica as a whole was J$56 in Note that the negative resource rents arise largely due to 1996, equivalent to approximately J$92 in 1998 (source: the opportunity costs of fishing labor, which can be greater Statistical Institute of Jamaica). Assuming a 40 hour work than the actual accounting returns to labor. week (source: Statistical Institute of Jamaica), an aver- age weekly wage in Jamaica is J$3670. To arrive at an Other Direct Local Uses estimate for the opportunity cost for labor, this average weekly wage is discounted by 25% to a final figure J$2750 The other possibly significant direct use values which per week per individual to reflect the value of the mar- were explored for this project included the aquarium trade, ginal product of labor. The opportunity cost of labor is mariculture, coral crafts, other crafts derived from marine Values Associated with the Local Use of the Montego Bay Marine Park 91 Table 5.8 Estimates of catches, gross incomes per boat, and individual incomes of fishers by method of fishing for early 1998 Approximate weekly gross income per Approximate Number of Approximate catch boat assuming weekly individual Method offishing outings per week per outing (lbs) J$IOO1lb0 (current J$) incomeb (current J$) Troll 3 to 5 10 to 20 3000 to 10000 750 to 2500 Trap 1 10 to 20 1000 to 2000 250 to 500 Net 3 to 5 10 to 15 3000 to 7500 750 to 2250 Hand line 3 to 5 10 to 20 3000 to 10000 750 to 2500 Spear 5 to 7 10 5000 to 7000 5000 to 7000c a In general, "table fish" (fish 1.5 lbs each and up) will sell for $J100 per lb, while "frying fish" (fish under 1.5 lbs) will sell for $J50 per lb. Species caught by trolling command specific prices: for example, $J1OO per lb for dolphinfish, $J70 per lb for blue marlin, $J60 per lb for tuna (noted as one of the harder fish to sell), and $JlOO per lb for kingfish. J$100 per lb was used for calculations assuming that higher value fish are caught. b Weekly individual incomes per fishing activity were estimated as 25% of the approximate weekly gross incomes per boat. This assumes a typical sharing arrangement and an average of one captain and one crew member per boat. Spear fishing typically has no sharing arrangement, with relatively few expenses or required capital investments; thus, although their net will be less than the gross due to expenses, no adjustments were made to the gross incomes as reported on this table. Table 5.9 Total number of fishers and boats by landing beach estimated to be fishing in Park waters in 1998 (Bunce and Gustavson 1998a; Registration of Fishermen Database, Fisheries Division, 1998) Landing beach Number of boats Number offishers River Bay 51 161 White House 5 15 Bogue 1 8 Reading 8 23 Spring Gardens 5 8 Unregistered spear fishers - 150 Total 70 365 materials, and coral sand extraction. In all cases, the sand, gravel or minerals, corals, sea fans, shells, starfish benefits associated with these activities were found to be or other marine invertebrates, seaweeds, grasses, or any negligible during the final site application. The Natural soil, rock, artefacts, stones or other materials" (4.1 .a; note Resources Conservation (Marine Parks) Regulations of that fishing is dealt with separately under the Regulations June 5, 1992, proclaimed under the Natural Resources and is a permitable activity). Thus, the policy direction Conservation Authority Act of Jamaica, make it clear of the government and the management authorities is to that a person shall not "destroy, injure, deface, move, prevent all forms of coral sand extraction or extraction of dig, harmfully disturb or remove from a marine park any other marine materials for use in crafts. 92 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling Table 5.10 Annual net operating values (current J$) by method of fishing for 1998 Total annual net Total WReekly net operating value Weekly number operating value (without Method offishing gross income of owners per owner capital deduction) Trap 1000 to 2000 13 -4750to-4000 -3.21x106 to -2.70x106 Net 3000 to 7500 10 -3250 to 125 -1.69x106 to 6.50x104 Hand line 3000 to 10000 47 -3250 to 2000 -7.94x106 to 4.89x106 Spear 5000 to 7000 154 1000 to 2500 8.01x106 to 2.00x107 Total nla 224 n/a -4.83x106 to 2.23x107 Table 5.11 Net annual values and net present values for the fisheries of Montego Bay Marine Park, 1998 (brackets indicate midpoint of estimate) i = 5% i = 10% i = 15% Net annual value -4.83 to 21.8 -5.92 to 21.2 -6.47 to 20.7 (millions of current 1998 J$) [8.5] [7.6] [7.1] Net present value (NPV) -96.6 to 436 -59.2 to 212 -43.1 to 138 (millions of current 1998 J$) [170] [76] [47] Net present value (NPV) -59.0 to 266 -36.1 to 129 -26.3 to 84.2 (millions of constant 1996 J$) [104] [46.5] [29.0] Net present value (NPV) -1.66 to 7.49 -1.02 to 3.63 -0.741 to 2.37 (millions of constant 1996US$) [2.92] [1.31] [0.815] A minor, but ultimately indeterminate, amount of ex- construction materials, primarily as a component of traction of materials for crafts or direct sale through the cement. No indications of sand extraction were found informal economy is believed to occur illegally. This is during the final site application, but Park authorities noted reflected in the contingent valuation results (Chapter 6) that there have been signs of some activity near River in which one individual respondent out of 1,058 noted Bay in the past (Malden Miller, Director of Montego Bay that one of the benefits derived by the Park was getting Marine Park, pers. comm. February 1998). Nonetheless, shells and stones for natural crafts. The selling of conch as it is currently the law and policy of the managing au- shells collected from Park waters is perhaps the most thorities to prevent coral sand extraction from occurring, prevalent, yet likely a relatively minor problem. Park those benefits, believed to be small and unsustainable, rangers actively enforce the "no take" regulations, stop- may be negated for the purposes of this study. ping collectors as they are discovered (Malden Miller, Mariculture currently does not occur within Park boun- Director of Montego Bay Marine Park, pers. comm. Feb- daries. Authorities are not pursuing the establishment of ruary 1998). Such items are not readily available for mariculture, but would be open to considering the imple- purchase in markets, at hotels, or other public areas in the mentation of a program if approached with a serious and imrnmediate vicinity of the Park, but are readily available viable proposal (Malden Miller, Director of Montego Bay from road-side stands outside of Montego Bay. Marine Park, pers. comm. February 1998). The capture Coral sand extraction is similarly illegal within the of fishes for sale on the aquarium market is also effec- Montego Bay Marine Park boundaries. Sand is extracted tively non-existent. No individuals were known or iden- from beaches and rivers throughout Jamaica for use in tified during the final site application who participate in Values Associated with the Local Use of the Montego Bay Marine Park 93 this activity. No other direct use activities of potential the first 100 feet of shoreline property are at risk of ero- economic significance, not associated with either fisher- sion should the protective function of the coral reefs be ies or recreation and tourism, were identified during the compromised. final site application. The Capture of Value from Marine System Contributions to Economic Production This study considered the coastal protection that coral reefs afford as the sole indirect use value which can be The NPVs reported for direct uses in this study represent quantified. Support of the offshore fisheries through eco- what would typically be considered to be producer sur- logical interactions may also be significant, but there are plus or rent. In other words, it is the difference between as yet no theoretical tools available to quantify the role the total business revenues taken in through the use of the of the coral reefs in offshore fisheries production. The coral reefs, and the total costs associated with operating literature which examines the biological contribution of the business or activity. Of great interest to the manage- coral reefs and the interactions with offshore fishes and ment authorities of the Montego Bay Marine Park, as pelagic production does not allow translation to quanti- well as to managers of any coastal marine system, is to fiable economic contributions. There are also indirect capture at least a portion of this rent to pay for the nec- values associated with coral reefs theoretically linked as essary management, and potential enhancement, of the a component of natural historical event records; however, resource. In other words, there are social costs associated the investigation of this information function, while a with conservation of the resource which should be paid potentially interesting academic exercise, is of low policy by the users. priority and thus not explored. Assimilation of wastes, As a component of the study, current existing gov- pollution and discharge from anthropogenic sources is enment charges which may capture a portion of the rent yet another potential indirect benefit, yet coral reefs are were explored. Currently, it is not the policy of the highly sensitive to nutrient and sediment inputs and as Montego Bay Marine Park to charge user fees (a recog- such these latter benefits are not considered to be viable nized, explicit mechanism for rent capture), although at or sustainable indirect uses to be considered in the local the time of publication the Park was in the early stages of use model. beginning such a program. Other government charges The value of coastal protection is estimated from the which are specifically linked to either tourism or fisheries value of land that is vulnerable to erosion. Investigation related activities may capture a portion of either producer into potential sources of information on land values or consumer surplus, but are not necessarily designed proved that detailed information would not be forth- explicitly to do so. This includes business license fees, coming. Information on current land prices was solicited fisheries license fees, beach fees and tourist departures from various sources (Table 5.1). Relying on real estate taxes. No other government or management agency fees market information for land value information is limited or charges are specifically linked to either tourism or fish- by the nature of the properties which are available on the eries related activities in the area. Corporate profit taxes, market at the time of the survey, and thus for which there or personal income tax in the case of the fishers or of is information, and may not yield results representative of individually distributed profits from tourism-related busi- the entire region. Moreover, information is not available nesses, may also capture a portion of the rent. However, for many of the prime shoreline areas of the Montego taxes are paid to the general collectorate and thus are not Bay Marine Park. explicitly available for use in Park management. The The average shoreline value of land vulnerable to ero- extent to which taxes may capture tourism or fisheries sion within Montego Bay Marine Park was be estimated rent is not explored further here. to be J$350 (US$9.86) per sq. ft. or J$15.2 million Rent capture instruments are an effective means of (US$0.428 million) per acre in early 1998. The NPV of aligning private costs with social costs, such that the op- the total amount of land at risk, based on approximately erators "feel" the true costs associated with using the reefs. 250 acres being vulnerable to erosion, is thus US$107 The collection of a fee allows management and govem- million (1998 dollars) or about US$65 million in con- ment authorities to collect funds to pay for the resource stant 1996 dollars. Using 250 acres as being vulnerable management costs that they incur, as well as to help move to erosion along the 21 miles of shoreline within the toward an economically optimal level of use. The cap- Montego Bay Marine Park assumes that approximately ture of rent is most effective if fees are tied to profits or 94 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling net incomes (before interest and taxes) and, secondarily, Fisheries License Fee to the level of use. The beach fee charges as currently set There is no fishing license fee, although registrants must are minimal and, although they vary roughly according to pay a one-time fee of J$150 (US$4.23) to cover the cost the type of use, are not linked to varying levels of producer of the required identification card. The fee is collected by surplus. The current interest of the Montego Bay Marine the Fisheries Division of the Ministry of Agriculture. As Park in implementing user fees should be encouraged. there are no other fishery-related businesses directly tied An independent administration of a program of rent cap- to the activity in Montego Bay (e.g., processors, packers, ture that ultimately varies at least according to the level transport companies) and all fish sales are directly to the of use and the type of business will help ensure that the consumer (Bunce and Gustavson 1998a; Chapter l1), there funds are accessible by management authorities and don't are no other relevant govermnent license fees or charges disappear into the general government collectorate. that may be considered to capture any rent from fishing. License Fees Beach Fees In principle, license fees are collected to pay for the gov- The Natural Resources Conservation Authority (NRCA) emnment costs of regulating and administering the busi- currently charges a "beach fee", which is a license fee ness or activity. No information was available on the charged under the Beach Control Act of Jamaica for use actual costs associated with regulating the reef-related of the foreshore and the seafloor (usually to a point 25m activities, yet it is likely that in all cases these costs are seaward of the high water mark) for either commercial or not recovered based on existing fee schedules. private purposes. The Beach Control Act of 1956 estab- Tourism Related Business License Fees lished all rights of the foreshore and the floor of the sea to the Crown. Rights to the foreshore granted to private individuals before 1956, the date the Act was proclaimed, from tourism related businesses, with the exception of are maintained, along with rights by prescription granted accommodations. As of February 1998, this includes the to fishers (NRCA 1997, p.3 and p. 13). The law requires following: that a license be obtained "...for the use of the foreshore * J$3 000 (US$84.51) per operator per year for water in connection with any commercial enterprise along the sports, attractions, tour operators, and car rental coast which involved the use of or encroachment on the companies; foreshore and/or the floor of the sea and the overlying * J$100 (US$2.82) per operator per year for craft water" (NRCA 1997, p.5). Licenses are renewable on an vendors; and, annual basis and can grant either exclusive or non-exclu- * J$4000 (US$112.68) per machine per year for sive use of the foreshore (the granting of exclusive licenses gaming operations. is no longer practiced, although existing exclusive licenses are renewable). Relevant sections of the fee schedule as The accommodations license fee (the Hotel License Tax) stated in the amended Beach Control Authority Regula- is charged by the Inland Revenue Department of Jamaica tions (licensing), 1993, are shown in Table 5.12. Those and goes into the general collectorate. The fee schedule not listed include various fees that are charged for en- is based on the category of the accommodation (A, B, C, croachments on the foreshore or floor of the sea (e.g., or D). This system is being phased out, but the premise breakwaters, pipelines, pools, buildings, fences, steps, on which it is based is being maintained-a schedule of platforms) and those associated with moorings. fees that varies roughly in relation to the size of the ac- The policy direction ofthe NRCA is for the use of these commodation's revenues. The more deluxe or expensive fees primarily for the "...rehabilitation of public bathing hotels are currently classified as A or B and are charged beaches and the monitoring of beaches generally" (NRCA an annual fee of J$600 (US$16.90) per room per year. 1997, p.24). It is also the position of the NRCA that cur- Less expensive forms of accommodation and villas are rent license fees are "trivial" relative to the profits gener- assessed a fee of J$300 (US$8.45) per room per year, ated by the use of the public resource. The authority is while the least expensive accommodations pay J$150 very conscious of finding ways to raise more revenue, (US$4.23) per room per year. No information was yet particularly that associated with use of a public resource. available as to how the fees will be assessed in the fu- The beach fee is a direct mechanism for rent capture; ture, or how the room rates will translate to a particular however, none ofthese funds are explicitly directed to pay accommodation's license fee that is charged. for the management of the Montego Bay Marine Park. Values Associated with the Local Use of the Montego Bay Marine Park 95 Table 5.12 Schedule of fees as stated in the amended Beach Control Authority Regulations (licensing), 1993 of Jamaica Fee per operator Fee per operator Category per year (J$) per year (US$) Hotels (100 rooms and over) 5,000 140.85 Hotels (under 100 rooms) 3,000 84.51 Guest houses (30 rooms and over) 2,000 56.34 Guest houses (under 30 rooms) 1,000 28.17 Commercial recreational beaches, public recreational beaches, proprietary and member clubs 3,000 84.51 Beach used exclusively in connection with a dwelling, house or building rented for recreational purposes 2,000 56.34 Commercial or industrial beaches (other than commercial recreational) 5,000 140.85 Fishing beach (10 or more boats or with a fish depot) 100 2.82 Fishing beach (less than 10 boats) 50 1.41 Beach reserved exclusively for the use of owners of lots in a subdivision 2,500 70.42 Beach reserved exclusively for the use of schools, churches, or other bodies or persons for charitable or educational purposes 100 2.82 Departure Tax * US$210 million (using a 15% discount rate) to US$630 million (using a 5% discount rate) in 1996 As of early 1998, all individuals departing Jamaica from associated with tourism; either the airport or a cruise ship terminal are charged a . -US$1.66 million to US$7.49 million (constant 1996 departure tax of J$500 or US$15, depending on visitor dollars; using lower and upper estimate, respectively, preferred currency of payment (at the time of publica- of annual net values and a 5% discount rate; 10% and tion, this fee had increased to J$750 or US$20). As it 15% discount rate estimates fall within this range) in relates to the use of the waters of the Montego Bay Ma- 1998 associated with fishing; and, rine Park, the departure tax as a charge to tourists cap- - US$65 million (constant 1996 dollars) in 1998 tures at least a portion of the consumer surplus. In other associated with the coastal protection function of the words, the collected funds represents a portion of the coral reefs. amount that visitors would be willing to pay for their visit to~~~~ ~ Motg a adfrsm vstr,ohrrgoso As stated previously, one of the purposes of focusing on Jamaica) abntgov the (amunt tt tmey aitul othad tions p. the most significant local use values associated with the Jamaica)ave rnth camourby the tourism industry through coral reefs of the Montego Bay Marine Park is the added Resource rent captured by the tourism industry through usefulness of providing a detailed benchmark to feed into the provision of reef-related services is not addressed by subsequent modeling of the complete set of benefits and this fee mechanism. costs. This includes consideration of the results from the bioprospecting and contingent valuation components of Conclusions the larger project to arrive at an overall coral reef benefit model (Chapter 9). The current values of the resources In summary, this study has identified the following net at risk reported here must be placed within the broader present values associated with the use of the Montego context of considering the complete set of true social costs Bay Park waters (for the most recent year that data was and benefits when examining the economic efficiency of available): possible coral reef management interventions. 96 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling Under the current open access Park management re- to an inability to liquidate their capital investments. In gime, one would predict that all rents would have dissi- such a market, there would be little opportunity for new pated-that the profits of operators would be zero. As entrants as they would likely be faced with even lower outlined in this report, this is clearly not the case, although marginal yields. Furthermore, for many tourism-related fishing rents are certainly minimal. The two most com- businesses, such as the hotel sector and the water sports pelling explanations as to why there are still rents gener- operators, there are significant start-up costs and capital ated through the use of the Montego Bay Marine Park outlays necessary, further deterring new entrants. waters are that there are socio-cultural and expertise bar- It must be added that the analysis of NPVs presented riers to entry, and that the rents of the marginal or newer here was not able to distinguish between different types operators are zero due to the high costs associated with of operations within the tourism sector, with the excep- entry and lower marginal returns. tion of the aggregated sectors of accommodations, food Fishing rents are most likely maintained through socio- and beverage, entertainment, transportation, and shopping cultural and expertise barriers. The results of Bunce and for the year 1996. Although there was an overall positive Gustavson (1 998a; Chapter 11) indicate that fishing activ- NPV associated with each, there may be dramatic differ- ities are associated with a particular socio-economic class ences between different types of operators within each and that fishers themselves do not become proficient at category. fishing until they have gained the necessary experience. The existence of price distortions due to failures in Those outside of the fishing communities would likely the market may compromise the validity of the local use find it difficult to fish profitably. It was even noted dur- values reported here. The above analysis, if to be reflec- ing interviews with Montego Bay fishers (Bunce and tive of social values, assumes that competitive markets Gustavson 1998a; Chapter 11) that wealthier individuals are operating-that is, that no one individual or group of not associated with the fishing communities will at times individuals can affect the price at which a good or service try fishing, but will soon cease operations due to low is sold, and that the price revealed by the market is the catches, being unfamiliar with how or where to fish. The social price. Competition can be compromised through experience gained by the older fishers seems largely to the operation of monopolies or oligopolies, or through be passed on through persistent involvement in fishing specific govermnent interventions or policies. Problems and interaction within the fishing communities themselves. associated with imperfectly competitive markets are pre- Spear fishers, who enjoy the largest rents, are less dominant in developing countries. Under severe price tightly linked to the fishing communities, and thus might distortions, shadow pricing should be used. In other be expected to be subject to fewer socio-cultural barriers words, true social prices or values should ideally be found of entry. However, experience and the unfamiliarity of by looking for indicators which reveal the extent of the many Jamaicans with the marine environment would still distortion. The extent to which market prices accurately factor largely into their level of fishing success, and even reflected social values could not be explored in this study, their willingness to begin fishing in the first place. The yet the final site application indicated that overall there overall effectiveness of any barriers of entry into fishing, was a great deal of open competition between and within however, is not absolute. More individuals are fishing user groups, both domestically and internationally. The (especially spear fishing) as is evidence by the relatively extent of price distortions is not expected to be large recent and rapid increase in the number of fishers in enough to compromise the validity of the results reported Montego Bay (Bunce and Gustavson 1998a; Chapter 11). here. This increase in the number of fishers is expected to continue. The persistence of rents associated with the tourism sector is most likely due largely to new entrants facing higher costs and receiving lower yields or returns. For example, interviews with water sports operators (Bunce and Gustavson 1998a; Chapter 11) indicated that for some tourist services, such as the independent party cruise and glass-bottom boat operations, the market seems to be satu- rated or even declining, reducing gross returns. Existing, reportedly more marginal operators even expressed a de- sire to get out of the business, some unable to do so due Chapter 6 Lexicographic Preferences and the Contingent Valuation of Coral Reef Biodiversity in Curasao and Jamaica Clive L Spash Department of Land Economy, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom Jasper D van der Werff ten Bosch Resource Analysis, Delft, The Netherlands Susie Westmacott Resource Analysis, Delft, The Netherlands Jack Ruitenbeek H.J Ruitenbeek Resource Consulting Limited, Gabriola, BC, Canada The contingent valuation method (CVM) is a stated Issues in Survey Design preference method that directly surveys individuals to obtain their preferences rather than analyzing their ac- Practical CVM survey design must be carefully conducted tual behavior as revealed in the market place. In contrast with awareness of the need to make the trade-off being to other methods for cost-benefit analysis (CBA), CVM described both realistic and easy for the general public to has received considerable and increasing attention in understand. This is often a careful balancing act between the literature. The main advantage attracting this atten- depth and comprehensibility. Thus, for example, the tion is the ability of CVM to estimate option, existence lengthy technical discussions of ecologists about coral and bequest values in addition to direct use values.' The reef degradation have to be simplified to a set of stylised travel cost method, production function analysis, and facts. In addition, the length of the survey must be con- hedonic pricing are all restricted to assessing only the trolled to achieve an administration time that maintains direct use values of the environment (Hanley and Spash the average interviewee's attention. 1993). There are several stages involved in conducting a The Design Process CVM study-designing and pre-testing the survey, car- rying out the main survey, estimating willingness-to-pay The design of a CVM study includes the way informa- (WTP) and/or willingness-to-accept (WTA), bid curve tion is presented to individuals, the order in which it is analysis, data aggregation, and final assessment. In mak- presented, the question format, and the amount and type ing decisions at each stage of the studies' design and of information presented. There is a wide body of evi- conduct, economists impose their implicit value judgments dence to suggest that survey design can affect responses. as to what seems appropriate. While the art of survey Survey design requires framing a realistic decision con- design may make CVM more controversial, similar judg- ceming the environment where the monetary question to ments are required in the application of any CBA method. be asked is accepted as a possible state of the world in What CVM adds is the ability to probe motives and atti- which individual respondents might find themselves. tudes. Thus, the analyst must take several decisions, including a 98 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling reason for the payment, how funds will be raised (i.e., environmental asset, which they regard as unique, or a the bid vehicle), and the arrangements for and regularity species that they feel should be protected at all costs. of payments. For example, Rowe et al. (1980) found Respondents may refuse to state a WTP or WTA amount that WTP to preserve landscape quality was higher when because they reject the survey as an institutional approach an income tax increase was suggested than when entry to the problem, or because they have an ethical objection fees were used. The technique for bid elicitation maybe to the trade-off being requested (e.g., a lexicographic an open-ended question (with or without a bidding card), preference; Spash and Hanley 1995). Another potential a dichotomous choice, or a bidding game. Also, infor- problem is the outlier who bids a very large amount and mation on physical changes will need to be summarized so has a strong influence on the mean. This should only and the method of their description chosen (e.g., text, be regarded as a problem when the bid is unlikely to graphics, maps). occur because the individual lacks the income to pay Due to the sensitivity of responses to the information (under WTP) or would actually accept a much lower supplied, the pre-testing of the survey has become of in- amount (under WTA). In this case, the respondent would creasing importance. This can be conducted via a small be acting strategically, thus creating a bias. sample test run to see if respondents have problems and Analysis of the bid curve is used to test construct special sections can be included to pick out the occur- validity (i.e., that the socio-economic variables have the rence of difficulties. A focus group is another method expected signs and the regression is statistically signifi- now in use for pre-testing. Generally, the pre-test will cant). Other relationships can also be investigated at this enable the identification of problems with regard to the stage. In general, bid curve analysis has tended to be of framing of the decision problem, as well as divergence academic rather than policy interest. However, this anal- between encoding and decoding of information. ysis can provide useful insights into the behavior of The conduct of the main survey can use several vari- respondents and the determinants of their bids. In this ations. The in-house interview is now most favored in chapter, such analysis is used to investigate the impor- developed country surveys, although the expense of this tance of ethical positioning. approach often means surveys are completed in the street, Final reflection upon the CVM study can include con- by telephone interviewing, or by mail. In the Caribbean, vergent validity and success of repeatability where there the difficulty of obtaining a representative sample via in- exist other similar studies. The overall success of the ex- house interviews and obtaining a tourist sample meant ercise will also become apparent as the results are being the equivalent of "in-street" surveying was required (i.e., analyzed (e.g., a high number of protest bids). There are approaching people in the street, at shopping centers and several specific problems that are recognized as possible on the beach) in addition to the developed country prefer- causes of bias, some of which have been mentioned (e.g., ence for in-house interviewing. While random samples strategic bias, design bias). More problematic are the im- are recommended, in practice a truly random sample is pacts of the information, as this is, by necessity, restricted difficult to obtain. This is especially true in developing but can have serious influence upon the resulting bids and countries where large sections of the population may lack the problem of embedding as raised by Kahneman and telephones or have no postal address. Again, sampling Knetsch (1992). tourists can pose problems in terms of predefining and selecting a random sample. Even in developed countries, Information Provision the sample is often based on a quota as it is less expensive (although a random element may be included, such as the In a hypothetical market, respondents combine informa- random walk method).2 The sample is also often weighted tion provided to them regarding the good to be valued and in terms of the local or regional population, whichever is how the market will work with information they already seen as politically more important to the decision and hold on that good. Either the hypothetical market or com- likely to have strong direct economic connections to the modity-specific information given to them in the survey outcome. may influence their responses. This phenomenon implies Responses to the survey may include "protest bids", that WTP and WTA values are endogenous to the valua- and these are often omitted from the mean WTP or WTA tion process. Thus, bids to preserve different animal spe- calculation without adequate reason. Protest bids are zero cies may vary significantly according to the information bids given for reasons other than a zero value being placed provided by researchers (Samples et al. 1986). Ajzen et on the resource in question. For example, a respondent al. (1996) concluded from experimental research that the may refuse any amount of compensation for loss of an nature of the information provided in CVM surveys can Lexicographic Preferences and the Contingent Valuation of Coral Reef Biodiversity in CuraVao and Jamaica 99 profoundly affect WTP estimates and that subtle con- non-systematic error term and, therefore, would not rep- textual cues can seriously bias these estimates under resent a hypothetical bias (Mitchell and Carson 1989). conditions where the good is of low personal relevance. In general, CVM studies avoid actual trade-offs, unless However, Randall (1986) has argued that CVM answers they are specifically testing for a hypothetical bias, and should vary under different information sets, otherwise so the evidence on the impact of this bias is limited. A the technique would be insensitive to significant changes CVM study will be different from actual markets because in commodity framing. there is no debate over the value of goods, no sequential Indeed, the effects of information may be inappropri- learning from a series of purchasing decisions, and no ately labelled as bias, depending on the way in which enforcement of actual purchases. Thus, the extent to WTP or WTA is changed. Information that improves the which hypothetical market bias occurs will be dependent knowledge of an individual concerning the characteristics upon how realistic the trade-off described is felt to be by of a good can be regarded as infonning a consumption respondents. Also relevant is whether the design has con- decision. Information that alters the preferences is more sidered the type of incentives that might unintentionally problematic in the neo-classical framework and could be be given to respondents. regarded as creating a bias. For example, Baron and Maxwell (1996) show that individuals' WTP can be bi- WTP versus WTA ased by information on the cost of provision of public goods and suggest eliminating information from which WTA formats can generate more protest bids and outliers costs could be inferred from CVM surveys so that respond- than WTP. Protest bids may occur because people are ents can focus more easily on benefits alone. While such unwilling, on ethical grounds, to accept monetary com- redesign may avoid some types of bias, a more general pensation for the loss of an environmental asset (an im- issue, which remains, is how far individual preferences plied loss of property rights). Outliers may be due to a can be regarded as exogenous to the valuation process rejection of the notion of compensation resulting in a and, especially so, when goods are unfamiliarand/ornever large request for compensation based upon rejection of traded in a market. the implied trade-off, rather than an amount intended to represent their welfare loss. PCart-Whole Bias and Embedding Willig (1976) showed that these two welfare measures would be close if the ratio of consumer surplus to income This problem arises when the component parts of an indi- was sufficiently small and if the income elasticity of de- vidual 's valuation are evaluated separately and, when mand for the good in question was sufficiently low. Where summed, found to exceed the valuation placed upon the these conditions failed to hold, precise limits on the dif- whole. CVM studies have found part-whole bias, also ference between the two measures could be calculated. termed embedding, and this has been attributed by some While some criticized the applicability of Willig's find- to valuation of the moral satisfaction from contributing ings to environmental benefits (Bockstael and McConnell to a worthy cause ("warm glow") rather than the good 1980), others extended Willig's theorem to the quantity itself (Kahneman and Knetsch 1992). The counter reac- changes more commonly encountered in environmental tion has been that CVM surveys finding embedding are valuation (Randall and Stoll 1980). flawed in some way that creates the part-whole bias and However, stated WTP has been found to be signifi- that this can be corrected by careful survey design (Carson cantly lower than stated WTA (e.g., Hammack and Brown and Mitchell 1993, 1995; Hanemann 1994). However, 1974; Rowe et al. 1980). In addition, experimental work Bateman et al. (1997) have provided experimental evi- has also found that WTA exceeded WTP (Gregory 1986; dence for the existence ofpart-whole bias forprivate goods Knetsch and Sinden 1984). Several reasons have been outside of the CVM context. They therefore suggest that given as to why WTA may be greater than WTP. First, the problem lies with economic preference theory rather actual WTA is greater than actual WTP when loss aver- than the CVM approach. sion occurs. Individuals value a given reduction in en- titlements more highly than an equivalent increase in Hypothetical Market Error entitlements (Knetsch 1989). Second, income constrains WTP bids, unless limitless borrowing is possible, whereas Valuations in a hypothetical market could make responses WTA bids are unconstrained, making bounded trade-offs differ systematically from actual payments in actual hard to enforce. Third, the availability of substitutes pro- markets. Random over and under statement would be a vides theoretical evidence for a difference. Ifprivate goods 100 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling are poor substitutes for public goods, then WTA can be critically attacked CVM and, in particular, what he terms greater than WTP (Hanemann 1991). A public good with the "Wyoming experiment" of the late 1970s and early few private goods as substitutes will be valued differently 1 980s. He sees the technique as economist venturing into because under WTP the loss of public good is prevented, the political realm, which he regards as totally separate. while under WTA the private goods are meant to provide Applications to Kakadu National Park in Australia and compensation and the public good is lost. Fourth, risk- the assessment of damages arising from the Exxon Valdez averse consumers find they have only one chance to value oil spill in Alaska created public controversy. In the Exxon the good under the typical CVM and will tend to overstate case, one result was the suggestion that a specific set of WTA and understate WTP. They do so due to uncertainty guidelines for conducting a CVM should be followed. concerning the value of the good and in order to avoid a A panel of experts was convened by the National potential loss (Hoehn and Randall 1987). Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to On practical grounds, the status quo reference posi- fight pressure from Exxon coming via the Bush admin- tion is preferable in terms of the property rights structure. istration. The panel, which included Kenneth Arrow If an alternative is imposed by the blanket imposition of (Exxon consultant) and Robert Solow (State of Alaska WTP formats in all CVM surveys, the result can be to consultant), gave qualified support for CVM. They pro- create an unrealistic trade-off, hypothetical market bias duced guidelines which suggest there is one correct and protest bids. Thus, rather than follow a generic pre- approach to conducting a "good" CVM study (i.e., meth- scription to always use WTP formats as a conservative odologically similar to Cummings et al. 1986). Blind estimate of values, the property rights prevalent in a given adoption of the NOAA guidelines has become a defense situation should be used as guidance. This reinforces the of the validity of specific work, although this ignores the theoretical argument for using WTA to measure a loss variation in case study circumstances, such as whether and WTP for a gain (Knetsch 1994). property rights prescribe a WTP or WTA approach. In addition, merely quoting the use of NOAA guidelines Dichotomous Choice versus Open-Ended Formats seems inadequate defense and some regard for independ- ent testing of the validity and applicability of both these The dichotomous choice format has been recommended guidelines and CVM results is required. because those supporting the approach regard a one-off The extent to which CVM can be generalized is eas- yes or no decision as closer to a free market. This is de- ily overstated. According to Cummings et al. (1986), batable in itself with the yes or no decision being closer CVM works best in only a limited range of circumstances. to a political referendum. There should be some concern The most important rules are that respondents understand for the rejection of such an approach in countries where and be familiar with the commodity to be valued; that prices are often discussed and argued about rather than respondents have prior valuation and choice experience given as fixed. Also, to bind the range of choices when with respect to the commodity; that uncertainty about conducting dichotomous choice, an open-ended CVM is the operation of the hypothetical market is low; and that required as a first step. This means that those advocating WTP is used in preference to WTA. However, the quan- dichotomous choice must defend the open-ended CVM. titative results of violating these conditions remain largely Neither format is clearly superior on a priori grounds. unspecified. However, the dichotomous choice format does suffer prob- The NOAA panel guidelines include the use of WTP; lems in practice. The "yea-saying" problem may be evi- in-house interviews on a random sample; full informa- dence of an anchoring bias and has raised questions as to tion on the resource change (including information on the usefulness ofthe format. Desvouges et al. (1993) found substitutes) and checks for understanding; closed-ended dichotomous choice exceeded the open-ended format and referendum formats (dichotomous choice); reinforcing had greater variability. The results are sensitive to the budget restrictions; and careful pre-testing. They have choice of bids by the analyst, and the choice of functional also recommended reducing any resulting valuation, form for mean estimation adds to variability in results. which raises questions over the derivation and credibility of this particular set of rules. In this regard, those using The NOAA Panel: the guidelines should remember that the NOAA panel was A Comment on Generalized Guidelines politically appointed to adjudicate over the use of CVM in the USA as a result of the Exxon Valdez accident. The As the use of CVM has increased, so has the debate procedure for deriving the guidelines, with a Nobel laure- between supporters and detractors. Sagoff (1996) has ate from each of the opposing camps on the panel, would Lexicographic Preferences and the Contingent Valuation of Coral Reef Biodiversity in Cura9ao and Jamaica 101 be interesting to discover, along with the underlying jus- seagrass beds and mangroves), and, for Curacao, the lo- tification for some of these rules. cation of the endangered sea turtle. The second map de- A more general problem is the extent to which any tailed the use zones proposed within the parks themselves one set of rules can dictate CVM research. The NOAA (e.g., recreation, fishing, multiple use, and shipping). guidelines have not resolved the debate around CVM because they assume a technical solution regardless of Institutional and Environmental Setting in Jamaica the problem at hand. The rules try to impose a set behavioral model upon individuals (economic rational- For Montego Bay, Jamaica, background information was ity) and reject divergent behavior (e.g., see the discussion gained from available documents which allowed a char- of part-whole bias in Bateman et al. 1997). However, acterisation of both the environmental quality and the there can be general guidelines as to good practice rather institutional setting. The aim was to find a realistic sce- than set formats for an idealised CVM survey that is uni- nario in which to describe a reason why the general pub- versally applicable. Regard to bias problems, appropri- lic might need to pay for biodiversity improvement. The ate testing and conduct of the survey, and learning from choice of an institutional setting was interconnected with past experience are obvious steps to adopt. the environmental problem that would be selected. There appeared to be several anthropogenic causes of reef dam- age that could be used in a CVM approach: Designing the CVM for the 1. Overfishing. A policy would need to be presented Coral Reef Case Studies which gave an institutional setting under which over- fishing would be reduced. This would need to be com- Two separate CMV surveys were designed-one survey bined with knowledge of the system of regulation to for Jamaica and one for Curacao. The main difference assess whether a realistic reason for asking the general forwJamaica androney forides geographiThe main differe public to contribute to such a scheme was feasible. between the surveys, besides geographical and institu- Problems with this approach were the institutional tional context, arose in the development of the biodiver- setting, fishing being related to use values creating sity improvement scenarios and management options to confusion when separating non-use values, and the achieve them. The Jamaican survey was designed and difficulty of blaming one cause for marine biodiver- tested first and this informed the Curacao survey, but feed- sity losses. back on the Curacao experience was also possible before 2. Mining the reef. This is an extreme scenario where either of the final surveys. This resulted in some simpli- the entire reef is lost. The difficulty was that the total fication ofthe information presented and the development value, rather than marginal quality change, in the reef of show-cards that could be used in either country. in its present state would be estimated. The problems were the hypothetical nature (i.e., the creation of a problem which did not exist), the high probability of Developing the Information Pack protests, and the failure to relate to the current insti- tutional setting. In addition, WTA compensation as The term "information pack" is used to summarize refer- the appropriate measure of welfare loss would add ence to all the descriptive materials included in a CVM another aspect of experimentation to the study. survey to convey information about the environmental 3 Waste treatment plant. The need to improve water changes. Maps were sought to show the islands, the reefs quality was the focus here. Problems arose in that by quality, mangroves, endangered or rare species, and many individuals were probably not connected to sew- main source points of pollution. This was to inforn re- age systems and so would have no obvious payment spondents as to the current areas of interest in terms of mechanism. These individuals might resent paying marine biodiversity, the threats to biodiversity, and the for others' extemalities. The institutional setting in context for the proposed project. In addition, the area terms of who pays and who benefits from wastewater covered by the case study needed to be described along treatment would have needed clarification. In addi- cithsoveredebyth ca shatu neededuto be drotescribe alontion, the extent to which the issue would be connected with some detail on what it would be protecting. to coral reefs rather than human health was unclear The final surveys included colour maps, descriptions and separating out the effects could be difficult. to be read aloud by the interviewer, and show-cards for 4 Trustfundfor restoration. This was realistic and could the interviewee to study. For each survey area, two maps be given an institutional setting within the Montego were used. One showed the whole island and explained Bay Marine Park. A range of management options the location of the proposed project (i.e., the park) and for restoration could be outlined and their expected identified other coral and marine resources (i.e., reefs, consequences described. Thus, the CVM survey would 102 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling outline expected biodiversity benefits related to Park The main sources of pollution were industrial, primarily provision. No one issue was needed as a cause to be around the Willemstad refinery and the town itself. The blamed for reef decline; rather, a range of causes could main threat of physical damage was through the construc- be identified. There were no obvious problems with tion of artificial beaches. In terms of development, new this option. However, the credibility of the trust fund . . . c was identified as a potential problem because it would tounst and population centers i the west and east were be dependent upon whether, for example, the gov- seen as potential threats. ernment or a non-government organization (NGO) was seen as most trustworthy to manage such funds. Describing Marine Biodiversity Similar funds in existence in Jamaica (e.g., Portland Environment Protection Association) implied this Biodiversity is a difficult concept to explain quickly and would be unproblematic. simply. Previous experience has shown the very term is The Montego Bay Marine Park (MBMP), which had often poorly understood by the general public and even already formed a point of interest in reef management, among sub-groups with high education levels (Spash and immediately had the advantages of an actual institution Hanley 1995). However, people are quite often familiar with a record of marine ecosystem management and pro- with the ideas that lie behind the concept and these need vided a realistic context within which a WTP scenario to be brought out before any WTP questioning. The sur- could be developed. vey downplayed academic wording while portraying the same information. Institutional and Environmental Setting in Cura- ao Defining and Describing the Coral Quality Change The best options raised for Curacao were either: i) a trust fund to protect marine biodiversity to be used for the A major concemn in designing the CVM survey was the establishment and maintenance of a marine park along characterisation of the environmental change and its cause the south coast; or, ii) the improvement of the existing and impacts on biodiversity. There was a period of con- underwater park. The present underwater park, at the sultation with marine biologists, ecologists and conser- eastem end of the island, was deemed to be more sub- vationists familiar with the sites and biodiversity degra- stantive on paper than in fact. The site borders private dation of coral reefs in general. Experts advised on the property, effectively restricting access. Dive operators in characterisation of the problem for the survey. On this the vicinity and the ecological institute (Carmabi/Stinapa) basis, the Jamaican pre-test tried to explain the concept are the main users of the area. The limits on site access of coral reef abundance. Coral reef abundance was felt and the proximity of private property raised the follow- to be the best approximation to a measure of coral reef ing issues: species diversity and health. The description of coral reef * The site might be seen as private property rather than a degradation and improvement in the WTP preamble and public good; question was in terms of percentages from a maximum * Familiarity would be low; (100%). The general public was able to comprehend the idea of percentage changes from a hypothetical maximum more to indirect benefitse, and without going into the detailed scientific reasoning. The more tossindlitirector bendivefits;ia improvementappeared aim was, therefore, limited to describing the environmental * The possibilities for biodiversityv improvement appeared trd-f an 'h eeisfo h rpsdpoet limited. trade-off and the benefits *om the proposed project. At the time this project was being established (early The Benefit Payment Scenario 1997), a plan for a marine park along the whole south coast of Curacao was developed by the agency responsible for In order to design a payment scenario, the project being the management of national parks (Stinapa). Thus, the paid for must be described in enough detail to allow re- best option was to base the CVM survey on this new plan. spondents to understand the net benefits. This requires A major advantage was adopting an actual project propo- an understanding of the current environmental status quo sal with an expected range ofbiodiversity improvements. and the institutional context. The overall aim must be a Information on the current state of Curacao reef sys- realistic, if hypothetical, proposal. As explained above, tems was gathered. There are very few mangrove areas environmental quality within the proposed parks was char- and these are mainly surro-unding inland lagoons. The main acterized to give a background picture. endangered or rare species identified were sea turtles, In order to achieve a stated improvement in marine which have nesting grounds in one area of the islands. biodiversity, a set of management actions needs to be Lexicographic Preferences and the Contingent Valuation of Coral Reef Biodiversity in Cura9ao and Jamaica 103 described. This requires some knowledge of the powers period of years. The parks would then be described in and jurisdictions of institutions so that management terms of a "policy on" situation where degradation is options attributed to the manager of the trust fund are avoided or coral abundance is increased. Thus, the man- realistic. For example, such things as tourist develop- agement aim could be to either improve reef biodiversity ment projects and designation and enforcement of ship- or prevent biodiversity reductions and reef deterioration ping lanes may be regarded as outside park management's that would otherwise occur. In the survey, a mixed ap- jurisdiction. proach was felt to be most realistic. That is, the current The reduction of the nutrient and sediment loading situation of the coral reefs was estimated to be one of onto the reef was seen as the main problem. This could deterioration, but in both countries institutions had been be achieved through sewage treatment and industrial pol- identified which were working on reef maintenance. This lution control. However, a marine park is more likely to allowed the current situation to be described as one in be involved in monitoring to determine whether such which the reef would deteriorate without any action, but standards are being met and the occurrence of physical that some action was already ongoing. This ongoing man- damage (e.g., due to anchors from fishing and diving agement would then allow the reef quality to be main- boats). In these cases, the park is unlikely to be actually tained at present levels, which had been characterized as installing or running mitigating measures. However, the degraded. The proposed project for which individuals enforcement of the measures and provision of data and would be asked to pay would increase the coral abun- information to ensure the measures are enforced could dance from this level. The two scenarios were both for a be within park jurisdiction. The management options 25% improvement. selected as examples for the survey were, in the end, found to be common to both the South Coast Marine Park Survey Sections and Questions in Cura9ao and the Montego Bay Marine Park in Jamaica. These were: The layout for the CVM survey used here has been de- ihsm-r:veloped over several years. The design makes use of - Planting mangroves and coastal plants to reduce im- individual sections to separate a group of issues. In this pacts from run-off; pacts~ ~ fro ru-f- instance, five main sections were included: * Establishing monitoring of water quality, fish, plant life insanc an sections included: and mangroves; 1. Framing and background information. The public and Establisngrmooring buoys for fishers; policy context is described in terms of related issues that are of concem. That is, by a series of questions, • Enforcing and patrolling use zones; and, the interviewees are made aware of a range of issues • Enforcing fishing regulations. among which the environment is but one. They are Several other possible management strategies were asked to think about and reflect upon their own pri- dropped as being outside of the jurisdiction of the parks: orities. This also helps reinforce the concept of soci- ety having limited resources and there being a set of * Treatment of sewage; possible public policy issues requiring attention. The * New drainage systems for storm waters; idea of framing is to place the problem of coral reef * Encouraging proper disposal of chemicals, garbage and degradation within a broader context. Thus, the ques- other waste to improve water quality; tions move from a very general level, with no mention * Promoting higher industrial effluent treatment; and, of the environment, to environmental issues and the . Limiting inshore dumping by ships. specific case study sites. Failure to frame the issues may be regarded as promoting one specific issue with- The current state of the reef system to be included in out any context and has been cited as a cause of em- the park must be given and the expected improvements bedding problems. Besides being concerned with detailed. Knowledge of the existing situation can be used framing the issue, this first section also gathers back- as the "business as usual" scenario and predictions made ground information on the interviewees' knowledge about the quality of the environment at some point in the of the site and provides information. The site infor- future. This is then compared to the situation at that time mation is given via maps and a short description. This with environmental measures in place. aims to give all respondents a basic level of knowl- In terms of environmental changes, the "business as edge about the area and places it within a geographical context. Such information also acts as another fram- usual" scenario is given by the current policy. The CVM ing device by showing other areas of coral reef and survey could use the characterisation of reef quality to environmental habitat that may be regarded as substi- imply either stability of the reef system or, more realis- tutes. Background information on the interviewees' tically, degradation by a given percentage over a given knowledge and use of the area is also gathered at this 104 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs. Decision Support Modeling stage. By the end, the context has been set and the 3. Rights and responsibilities. This section had four interviewee has had to think about the coral reef case questions. The first question splits the sample by the study area, their knowledge of the site, the benefits degree to which they attribute the right to be free from they gain from the coral reef, and their knowledge of harm to five categories of potentially morally consid- biodiversity and, in particular, marine biodiversity. erable groups. The five groups were: i) other humans 2. WTP into the trustfund. The information forming the now living; ii) future generations; iii) marine animals; background to the WTP question has been described iv) marine plants; and, v) marine ecosystems. Rights above. The scenario is to improve coral reef biodi- were attributed using a three-point scale with each versity by 25% given a set of management strategies point being associated with a position. The three po- to be adopted by a marine park. The park will have a sitions can be summarized as: i) rights apply abso- trust fund set up explicitly for the purpose. Payment lutely; ii) rights depend upon the circumstances; and, could have been on several bases, but a per annum iii) no rights apply. Respondents could also answer payment for five years was felt to be reasonably real- "don't know". Those who responded by attributing a istic. Beyond five years, people are unlikely to regard right under any category were then probed regarding actual payment as likely. The main alternative would their readiness to make trade-offs that might occur by have been to request a one-time payment and then try the claimed attribution of a right. Thus, within the to estimate the time period or interest rate over which context of the park, the respondent was asked to agree this might represent a discounted present value. This or disagree with a personal responsibility to prevent introduces unnecessary complications and, therefore, harn regardless of the cost. They were then further the per annum five-year payment mechanism was probed to consider their answer. Those claiming such employed. The bid question was open-ended. Fol- a responsibility were asked to reconsider if the cost lowing the bid question, respondents were asked to was their current standard of living. Those rejecting explain the reason for their response. Tourists claim- the responsibility were asked to reconsider if their cur- ing no spare income had been noted to be an unusual rent standard of living was maintained. The final ques- group in the pre-test for Jamaica and interviewers were tion asked how the individual thought the rights they directed to probe these respondents. Probing was also had identified for the park should be protected. requested in the case of those making extremely high 4. Socio-economics. The collection of socio-economic bids. A coding table was developed for the zero bid- data allows population statistics to be calculated and ders from the pre-tests. A separate question explores aids bid curve analysis. A set of standard questions the embedding problem. The approach was to ask was included to cover gender, age, education, and respondents whether they would increase their bid if a income. In addition, occupation was requested as a greater reef area were to be included in the project. check on income and a few experimental variables Respondents should be prepared to do so unless they added, namely dietary preference and religion. place no value on other reef systems. If they state that 5. Interviewer response. The interviewer was asked to their bid was to cover all reefs, then a case of embed- give some feedback. The ftestion wa wheto ding has occurred. Subsequent questions probe indi- others had been listening while the survey was con- rect use values. Respondents are reminded of the uses ducted as this can lead to respondents saying what they they make of the area and the expected direct benefits think others want to hear and being reticent about their ofthe project for them. Once the respondents are think- own beliefs. Next, the interviewer was asked to rank ing of the uses they are asked to imagine leaving the the difficulty the respondent had in answering each island never to return. They are then asked whether section. Finally, they were requested to note any spe- this would lead to a reduction in their WTP and, if so, cific questions that were found to create a problem by what percentage. In the pre-test, a few respond- for the respondent. ents actually increased their bid despite being told their circumstances would be the same. In the final survey, the interviewer was requested to probe such respond- ents for their reasoning. Next, payment by volunteer- Pre-test Results and Survey Redesign ing hours was requested. This allows the unemployed and those on a low income to contribute to the project. The survey was designed to derive estimates of non-use In developing economies, payment by hours may be biodiversity values and test for the importance of a refusal seen as more practical for many The respondents were to make trade-offs of money for enviromental quality asked to make a commitmnent over five years, the same (i.e., the occurrence of lexicographic preferences). The period as for the WTP question. The final question in this section was on the impact of information on the survey for Curacao was adapted from the Jamaican case individual's preferences. The concern here was to see study. This survey was pre-tested and updated prior to if the survey was informing the respondent, forning the survey being applied in Curacao. Although the sur- their preferences on coral reef degradation, or both. vey had already been pre-tested in Jamaica, the redesign Lexicographic Preferences and the Contingent Valuation of Coral Reef Biodiversity in Cura9ao and Jamaica 105 and new cultural and geographic context meant a pre- * Feedback the survey quota results to the interviewers test was also recommended for the Curaqao case study. to keep them informed. Thus, survey pre-tests were conducted in both Jamaica In Curacao, the survey required re-translation in se- and Curacao. lected areas. Changes were also made to the original The pre-test survey is a crucial stage in the develop- translation in order to maintain direct comparability across ment of a CVM survey and requires sampling the popu- different language versions. The administrators in each lation from which the main test sample will be drawn. country selected and trained a set of interviewers (i.e., Typically, a pre-test is performed on 100 to 150 people conducted sessions on familiarisation with the survey and with qualitative feedback being the central aim, rather an assessment of the interviewer as a competent but neu- than attempting to gain quantitative results. The aim of tral purveyor of the survey information and questions). pre-testing is to identify any areas where the survey may In addition, close quality control was undertaken to en- be misinterpreted, where questions produce unexpected sure at least 1,000 completed surveys were collected. The results, and, more generally, to identify areas requiring outcome was 1,152 surveys in Curacao and 1,058 in improvement. For example, misinterpretation can occur Jamaica. due to the use of excessively technical language in the Detailed results of the main surveys for Jamaica and description of environmental quality changes and prob- Curacao (i.e., population sample statistics and data results ing a sample of the general public can make the analyst for specific sections of the questionnaires) can be found aware of divergence from the common use of language. in Spash et al. (1998). The remainder of this chapter will Both the interviewer and interviewee are important be concemed with the analysis of the WTP data and lexi- sources of feedback during the pre-test. Where survey cographic preferences. design requires optional sections, the interviewers must be able to understand the sequencing of questions they are to relay. The CVM surveys used here required the Lexicographic Preferences and WTP design of questions to probe sub-samples and, therefore, were reasonably complicated and care was taken to re- One major difficulty with using CVM in the context of design the format in light of interviewer comments. The coral reef biodiversity is related to the existence of "lex- pre-test was also a leaming experience for the survey co- icographic preferences". Stated simply, lexicographic ordinators who were responsible for training the inter- preferences exist where decision-makers are unwilling to viewers. This allowed the coordinators to revise the accept any trade-offs for the loss of a good or service. method of training and improve on the selection proce- The literature demonstrates that, where such preferences dure for interviewers. In countries where market research are prevalent, CVM techniques are methodologically companies, who are practiced in such matters, are un- flawed. The first step of an applied CVM procedure available, selection and training of the domestic coordi- should, therefore, be to determine the potential extent of nators takes on specific importance. such preferences. Recent work suggests that lexicographic The results of the pre-test were used to make several preferences for biodiversity are exceedingly widespread improvements prior to the implementation of the main in developed countries and that, moreover, the actual survey. Among the lessons for survey coordinators, which "definition" or "understanding" of biodiversity differs sig- as mentioned above may be particularly relevant in the nificantly among respondents. Under such conditions, context of developing countries, are the following: the use of CVM techniques is questionable. Thus, this * Use older, more mature individuals able to understand research tries to address the question of how to adapt the local language and probe the respondent when nec- CVM and test for refusal to make trade-offs in the con- essary; text of coral reef valuation, taking account of possible * Increase the level of in-depth individual training of the lexicographic preferences. interviewers; Monetary valuation of the environment requires the * Increase the intensity and quantity of feedback given defrnition of commodities in a way fundamentally identical to the interviewers after surveys have been completed; to marketed goods and services. That is, when an * Carry out the surveying over a longer period of time to environmental improvement occurs, an individual must give allow quality control after a batch of surveys have been up some consumption of other commodities to maintain a completed; constant utility level. This gives an individual's WTP amount, * Keep a close record of what each interviewer has re- which can then be summed across all affected individuals to ceived and done; and, obtain an aggregate WTP figure. Sirnilarly, the minimum 106 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling quantity of other commodities demanded to accept a ability to achieve them) as essential parts of living stand- reduction in environmental quality is the WTA compensation. ards rather than commodities. Such a living standard might In this case, expenditure on other goods must be increased be relatively materialistic in societies where being a to compensate for the reduction in environmental quality, so functional member of society is defined in such terms (e.g., maintaining the individual's initial level of welfare. Whether requiring ownership of a car and a television). As Sen (1988, the other commodities are regarded in terms of a single p.17) states: "The same capability of being able to appear numerate (i.e., money) or remain as a diverse set of goods in public without shame has variable demands on and services is inconsequential. commodities and wealth, depending on the nature of the The essential message of the normal indifference curve society in which one lives". In this formulation, the concept is that individuals are able to swap one bundle for another of lexicographic preferences becomes more readily and can do so for a set of bundles without affecting their acceptable, but the definition for empirical purposes welfare level. As mentioned, a problem arises if, for becomes far more difficult because the minimum living example, an individual believes that aspects of the envi- standard is expected to differ among social groupings. ronment have to be protected without regard to the cost in terms of other commodities. That individual will refuse all money or commodity trade-offs that decrease what is Rights and Lexicographic Preferences regarded as an environmental commodity in the neo-clas- sical framework. In theory, WTP to prevent the loss would Lexicographic preferences are signified by a discontinu- be all the available commodities the individual could com- ity in the preference function giving a single point, or mand (i.e., their income) and WTA compensation would bundle of goods, as the indifference set in goods space. be infinite. The respondent believes the aspect of the The aim of the surveys reported here was first to identify environment in question should remain at or above its the occurrence of such preferences and then see how far current level in terms of either quantity or quality. these might be indicative of a refusal to make trade-offs. Such preferences mean that utility functions, includ- This was achieved by direct questions on ethical beliefs ing environmental aspects that are to be protected at all that signify behavior incompatible with a continuous pref- cost, are undefined for an individual (since the axiom of erence function, follow-up questions and consistency continuity is violated) and that indifference curves col- checks. The approach to dealing with lexicographic pref- lapse to single points (denying the principle of gross sub- erences taken here was based upon previous work (Spash stitution). These preferences are termed lexicographic 1993b, 1997, 1998c; Spash and Hanley 1995). The gen- by neo-classical economics because they give absolute eral approach to lexicographic preferences is reviewed priority to one commodity over all others and, therefore, next in light of the few key studies previously conducted. imply a strict ordering as in a lexicon. The position de- The dominant economic theory of decision-making scribed is, however, best regarded as extreme because its requires a fundamental philosophical assumption-name- implications for the individual are total sacrifice for the ly, that individuals believe the net utility from the conse- environmental aspect to be protected (e.g., coral reef bio- quences of an action determines whether that action is diversity). Economists have tended to regard the denial right or wrong. Cost-benefit analysis and its tools, such of continuity and violation of gross substitution as of little as CVM, assume that individuals are able and willing to relevance because lexicographic preferences are unreal- consider trade-offs in relation to the quantity and/or qual- istic and unlikely to occur (Malinvaud 1972, p.20). ity of public goods. Debates in environmental ethics have The extreme lexicographic position does indeed seem raised the issue of individuals refusing to make thesejudg- likely to be uncommon because of this overriding ranking ments and so raised serious problems for the application of a good above even the individual's own life. The modi- of economic efficiency arguments (Sagoff 1988; Spash fied lexicographic position might be drawn-up in terms of 1993a, 1994). One aspect of refusal can be a basis of first attaining a minimum standard of living prior to being belief in inviolable rights so that actions are intrinsically prepared to defend the environment. Following Pigou of value or deontological. (1920, p.759) this minimum might include, but not be Neo-classical economists reject the notion of deontol- restricted to, a defined quantity and quality of housing, ogy because there is an assumed rationality attributed to medical care, education, food, leisure, sanitation and safety the ability to make trade-offs, whatever the commodity, at work. Sen (1988), appealing back to notions of Adam as long as enough compensation is offered in return. This Smith, goes further and defines functionings (the various can be summarized by the old colloquialism that every- living conditions we can achieve) and capabilities (our body has his or her price. However, some individuals Lexicographic Preferences and the Contingent Valuation of Coral Reef Biodiversity in Cura(ao and Jamaica 107 may treat certain aspects of the environment differently More specifically, respondents were initially asked to from the manner suggested by this theoretical framework. use the following categories in attributing or denying If an individual believes that aspects of the environment, rights: an absolute right to be protected from harm applies such as wildlife, have an absolute right to be protected, to this case; a right applies that depends upon the circum- then that individual will refuse all money trade-offs that stances and may, therefore, be withdrawn under certain degrade what is regarded as an environmental commod- conditions; or, no such rights to protection from harm ity in the neo-classical framework. Thus, the prevalence applies to this case. The case where they had to decide of the deontological position seems likely to be high which of these categories applied were: i) other humans among those who claim absolute rights to life for humans now living; ii) future human generations; iii) marine and other animals, future generations, trees or ecosystems. animals; iv) marine plants; and, v) marine ecosystems. In contingent valuation, evidence exists in developed Respondents could answer that they just did not know, countries to suggest individuals express lexicographic but only 0.2% in Jamaica and 2. 1% in Curacao found this preferences for wildlife (Stevens et al. 1991) and these necessary. Table 6.1 shows that almost all the sample are relate to rights for animals, plants and ecosystems (Spash prepared to attribute rights to the first of these categories and Hanley 1995). and that, for Curacao, this declines moving from i) to v), while, for Jamaica, no decline occurs. More than just attributing rights, the respondents in the majority of cases The Coral Reef Survey Results are attributing an absolute right to protection from harm. Marine animals, plants and ecosystems are attributed these Previous work on lexicographic preferences has relied absolute rights by approximately 60% of the Curacao upon a statement of belief in a position without consist- sample and over 80% of the Jamaican sample. ency checks or developing a series of probing questions. People may fail to consider whether they are actually In the current study, the survey instrument was designed prepared to defend this position by making choices in to accommodate the presence of lexicographic preferences their daily lives. Also, in over 60% of the cases, other and to probe those claiming such a position more fully. people were listening while the interview was being con- This approach allows for the adjustment of a CVM sur- ducted, which might stimulate a social norm. In order to vey instrument to detect the presence and extent of such address this issue, those who attributed a right to any of preferences in the surveyed population, and also allows the five categories above were then asked a set of follow- for the inclusion of variables reflecting those preferences up questions. for use in bid curve analysis. The methodology used had The follow-up questions were design to introduce the not been previously tested in a developing country con- potential for needing to make trade-offs and to confront text. Thus, among the results, the comparison between the respondent with a reasonably extreme case. The ques- the tourist and local sub-samples is of interest as a reflec- tion was also made more specific and related to the ma- tion of the relationship between contexts and preferences rine park in question in order to give the rights-based and, in turn, their relationship to stated WTP. position a context linked to the WTP questions. The The method used in the surveys takes a rights-based respondents who had attributed any rights to one of the ethical position as signifying an ethical stance compatible five categories were therefore initially asked whether, in with the lexicographic preference hypothesis. In the sur- the case of the relevant marine park, they believed the vey, respondents were asked to state the extent to which rights they had attributed meant a personal responsibility they saw rights as relevant to present and future genera- to prevent harm regardless of the cost. This is equivalent tions of humans, marine animals, plants and ecosystems. to reflecting that a duty for an individual would result These general attributions of rights were then probed fur- from enforcing a right. The result was approximately ther in the context of the marine park in question because 79% of the Jamaican and 68% of the Curacao respond- a general discontent with trade-offs may disappear upon ents answered affirmatively. the specification of circumstances. Beyond this, respond- Next, respondents were channeled into two separate ents were asked to reflect upon the extent to which their questions. Those affirming that they have a personal re- refusal to trade was absolute by considering a potential sponsibility regardless of the cost were asked whether they conflict with their own standard of living. This allowed would accept harm to the relevant island's marine life and some refinement in the definition of various positions be- habitat if trying to prevent it would threaten their current ing adopted by the respondents and their stated acceptance living standard. The other group of respondents, who had of a position compatible with lexicographic preferences. denied rights in this case, was also asked to reconsider 108 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling Table 6.1. Rights to protection from harm (% of total survey sample of 1,152 for Curacao and 1,058 for Jamaica). Right applies depending upon Absolute right applies the circumstances No right applies Don't know Curacao Jamaica Curagao Jamaica Curagao Jamaica Curaqao Jamaica Other humans now living 84 82 9 16 5 2 2 0 Future human generations 81 82 12 15 4 2 3 1 Marine animals 57 82 32 13 5 2 6 3 Marine plants 58 85 29 9 5 3 8 3 Marine ecosystems 60 84 25 10 4 3 11 3 given a more specific scenario. In their case, they were the cost of doing so is in terms of their current stand- asked whether they would accept a personal duty to avoid ard of living; and, harning the relevant island's marine life and habitat if 4. Those who reject rights and any personal responsibil- their current standard of living would be unaffected. The ity to protect marine life and habitats from harm regard- outcome of these questions is to enable the sample to be less of whether their own current standard of living is split into four categories (in addition to those denying any unaffected. rights to any of the five categories described earlier): The results for the two countries are shown for locals 1. Those who attribute rights and accept a strong personal and tourists in Table 6.2. The two middle categories, 2 responsibility to protect marine life and habitats from and 3 above, show a willingness to make trade-offs that is harm even when their standard of living is threatened; consistent with a modified lexicographic position (i.e., 2. Those who attribute rights and accept a personal re- once a basic standard of living is obtained, a stronger sponsibility to protect marine life and habitats from ethical position for other species is adopted). A readiness harm only if their own current standard of living is to consider the trade-off circumstances and the subjec- unaffected; tivity of the relevant standard of living means that indi- 3. Those who withdraw rights and any personal respon- viduals in these categories may be regarded as acting as sibility to avoid harm to marine life and habitats when utilitarians and weighing-up the trade-offs. The situation Table 6.2. Personal responsibility to protect life and habitats in the marine park. No rights Remove duty Attribute duty in this case No duty ifcost high if cost low Strong duty Total Curacao Number of locals 2 91 262 120 173 648 Number of tourists 8 77 185 75 135 480 Total number 10 168 447 195 308 1128 Total (% of sample) 0.9 14.9 39.6 17.3 27.3 100a Jamaica Number of locals 10 64 328 74 88 564 Number of tourists 0 46 342 34 70 492 Total number 10 110 670 108 158 1056 Total (% of sample) 0.9 10.4 63.3 10.2 14.9 100a aRow may not add to 100% due to rounding errors. Lexicographic Preferences and the Contingent Valuation of Coral Reef Biodiversity in Cura9ao and Jamaica 109 for Jamaica shows a dramatic reduction in those attribut- ences. The way in which this entire group, which is prepared ing absolute or strong rights from 79% down to 14%. to protect the marine environment at personal cost, believes Similarly, although slightly less dramatic, for Curacao the the rights they have identified are to be protected is shown in reduction is from 68% to 28%. Despite this large reduc- Table 6.3. The biggest grouping of responses falls upon two tion, there is still a sizeable hardcore of individuals tak- methods for protecting the rights identified within the marine ing a position consistent with strong lexicographic park. In Jamaica, 66.4% and, in Curacao, 48.3% of preferences. This leaves the question open as to how these respondents wanted rights to be protected by either a legal individuals expect to protect the rights they hold so approach or education, ora combination ofthe two. Some of strongly and how they would avoid having to make a trade- those holding a strong duty position felt the trust fund was off decision, for example, where material goods are also a good idea and wouldhelp intheprotection ofthe rights equated to the discharge of the moral duty being described. they had attributed to the marine environment. Others gave In order to try and address these issues, another set of responses combining more than one category. The miscella- follow-up questions was asked. neous category includes a variety of actions to be taken by various bodies or unspecified groups (e.g., NGO initiatives), unspecified schemes, and restriction of specific activities (e.g., How to Protect Rights? harpooning, anchoring, creation of beaches, diving, allowing technology to prevent pollution, economic development). Those protesting in terms of a zero bid and a strong duty The overall picture can be viewed as a proportion of position are in favor of legal and educational approaches these individuals extemalising the cost to other parties or to increasing the quality of biodiversity in the marine organizations. Alternatively, there may be a genuine fail- parks. In Jamaica, 50% of these individuals opted for a ure to consider the cost of the proposed solution. The purely legal approach, while in Curagao, 53% wanted main category that avoids extemalising the cost and main- either a legal and/or an educational approach. tains a position consistent with a strong lexicographic As mentioned earlier, both zero and positive bid strong preference is that of the "lifestyle change". Education duty holders are potentially signifying lexicographic prefer- may also cover a range of activities that go beyond the Table 6.3. How to protect a strong duty position (code method of protection: I =legal enforcement, regu- lation and policing; 2=international community funded initiatives; 3=lifestyle and fundamen- tal behavioral changes; 4=education, formal and informal (e.g., media); 5=user fees; 6=gov- emnment responsibility and tax funded initiatives; 7=combined education and legal approach; 8=combined various approaches; 9=other miscellaneous approaches; 10=don't know). Method ofprotection by code total 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Total Curacao Number of locals 51 2 12 30 17 14 8 12 8 19 173 Number of tourists 28 6 7 28 8 10 4 16 5 23 135 Total number 79 8 19 58 25 24 12 28 13 42 308 Total (% of sub-sample) 25.6 2.6 6.2 18.8 8.1 7.8 3.9 9.0 4.2 13.6 l00, Jamaica Number of locals 42 2 5 18 1 2 6 5 1 6 88 Number of tourists 20 1 5 15 1 4 4 2 10 8 70 Total number 62 3 10 33 2 6 10 7 11 14 158 Total (% of sub-sample) 39.2 1.9 6.3 20.9 1.3 3.8 6.3 4.4 7.0 8.9 l00, aRow may not add to 100% due to rounding errors. 110 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling classroom and remain consistent with the ethical position. because it is less extreme, that lack of extremity means it However, given the limited extent of allowance for open- is also difficult to identify. That is, positive bids may be ended responses on the subject possible in the current given that reduce income to a subjective minimum living survey, little more can be read into this. standard but this minimum is unknown. One way we try The implication for stated WTP is that, in many cases, to address the positive bid issue is by using scaling and those holding a strong duty position are prepared to pay dummy variables in the bid curve analysis reported later. for a different institutional framework (e.g., a judicial First, consider the zero bids, which are taken as a re- approach) if required to do so. This, of course, creates a jection of a trade-off. The only data that is of interest practical problem for a CVM survey that, as part of the with regard to the lexicographic position is taken to be design, selects one institutional approach to the problem that defined by the strong duty category. Note that this at hand. In addition, there is the theoretical problem that, assumption may be questioned for a modified lexico- where respondents are prepared to pay for an institutional graphic model where a minimum living standard is de- framework, this fails to be a reflection of the resource fended first and, if threatened, takes priority. Positive value, but is rather a contribution to a social construct. and zero bids can split this category. The survey allowed An extension to the current research would be to ex- for bids by both time and money as shown in Table 6.4. periment with altemative institutions to see how WTP or That is, the project gave the scope for including volun- WTA varies. tary work to improve marine biodiversity and this was seen as an important altemative in a developing country Internal Consistency of Responses context where many may be on a low wage or in a non- monetary economy. The impact of this approach is to The characterisation of the change in biodiversity as an reduce the zero bid category considered here beyond that improvement also has implications for the trade-off. That of the monetarily defined. Remember, those who show a is, the expectation of a lexicographic preference is that positive WTP in time and/or money may be indicating individuals will bid all their spare income in such a situa- that they would be prepared to make a trade-off (indiffer- tion for even a small improvement. In fact, individuals ence) or that they are giving up a substantive part of their may reject the institution that imposes such a condition current living standard (lexicographic). The zero bidders upon them. This behavior has the advantage for the indi- as a sub-group of strong duty holders are quite small in vidual of avoiding acceptance of an institution, which may contrast to previous findings of 3.4% to 7.5%. lead to a potential irreversibility. That is, if the improve- Next, the reasons for giving a zero bid are analyzed. ment were reversed and the WTP bid had been made, the These are divided into accepted economic reasons for a individual would now have no spare income to give a zero bid (i.e., income constraint or no value). The re- positive WTP and would then be classified as a zero bid- maining reasons, shown in Table 6.5, are taken as indi- der. The approach taken by Spash and Hanley (1995) cating non-zero value. The outcome is to reduce the pro- was to identify zero bids for non-zero value reasons, iden- test zeros, which are consistent with a strong lexicographic tify protest bids and see how many of these were consist- preference as defined by the strong duty, to 1.7% for ent with a lexicographic preference. The hypothesis was Curacao and 4.8% for Jamaica. then that individuals protest against CVM and bid noth- ing rather than take part in a process which implicitly buys and sells improvements in what are seen as rights Bid Curve Analysis and duties. This approach is followed below and allows Analysis of the determinants of WTP is particularly rel- the results to be compared with the earlier work. evant to the purposes of the coral reef valuation project. However, a qualification is necessary. We note that a The variables, which are hypothesised to determine varia- positive bid by a believer in strong duties can still be tions in WTP, can be specified and studied via economet- consistent with a lexicographic preference. Such individu- ric analysis. In this section, bid curves are reported for als are rejecting neo-classical choice theory but are acting the two case studies. The approach used in this section in a way consistent with the expectations of mainstream relies on a "tobit" analysis of the sample. Although many economic theory by giving a WTP amount. If the less bid curve analyses rely on ordinary least squares (OLS) extreme modified lexicographic preference position is procedures, such techniques maybe flawed when applied adopted, positive bids are expected to be the amount above to data sets such as those generated by our surveys. The a minimum standard of living. An additional complica- procedure is detailed in standard texts on limited depend- tion is then that while the position seems more reasonable ent variables (e.g., Maddala 1983) and has been applied Lexicographic Preferences and the Contingent Valuation of Coral Reef Biodiversity in Cura9ao and Jamaica Ill Table 6.4. WTP of individuals holding a strong duty position. Positive bid Positive bid Positive bid Zero bid time money time and money Total Curaqao Number of locals 38 19 82 34 173 Number of tourists 46 16 41 32 135 Total number 84 35 123 66 308 Total (% of sample) 7.5 3.1 10.9 5.9 27.3 Jamaica Numberoflocals 10 8 39 31 88 Number of tourists 26 7 29 8 70 Total number 36 15 68 39 158 Total (% of sample) 3.4 1.4 6.4 3.7 14.9 Table 6.5. Identifying reasons for non-zero bids by strong duty respondents. Zero bidders by reason Cura9ao Jamaica Zero Economic Value Reason Low income or unemployed 20 13 Reef improvement unimportant 5 0 Non-resident 25 5 Total (% of sub-sample) 59 50 Non-Zero Value Reason Paying incorrect solution 6 1 Improvement will occur anyway 2 0 Mistrust marine park institution 3 2 Government is responsible 21 3 Could not place a money value 0 3 Other 2 6 Refused to answer or don't know 0 3 Total (% of sub-sample) 41 50 Total number 84 36 within the context of environmental economic household WTP Determinants for Curasao and individual choice decision models (e.g., Ruitenbeek A range of variables was available from the survey and 1996). A maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) proce- those considered most important are shown in Table 6.6. dure sets up a likelihood function and through iteration A bid curve analysis, using a semi-log linear form, for provides an efficient solution to the tobit specification. Curacao shows determinants of WTP as a set of standard The procedures are analyzed based on the significance of socio-economic variables, knowledge and the position individual explanatory variables (through t-statistics) and, taken towards rights (i.e., a lexicographic type prefer- when comparing models, through a likelihood ratio test ence).3 The socio-economic variables are gender, age based on a chi-square distribution. All tests of signifi- and education. Income would be another standard vari- cance are reported at a 95% level of confidence. able expected to deternine WTP, but is excluded here. 112 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling Table 6.6. Variable definitions and basic statistics for Curacao. Variable Mean Min Max Valid number Label TL 0.43 0 1 1152 Tourist (1) or local (0) LANGDUTC 0.36 0 1 1145 Language Dutch LANGENG 0.18 0 1 1145 Language English LANGPAP 0.46 0 1 1145 Language Papiamentu BENUM 1.41 0 5 1151 Number of benefit categories VISITF 0.88 0 1 1152 Visit site in future KNOWMBD 4.68 1 10 1152 Knowledge of marine biodiversity PREFINFO 0.37 0 1 1152 Preference change and information effects HARMMA 1.45 1 3 1078 Anti-rights to marine animals HARMMP 1.43 1 3 1060 Anti-rights to marine plants HARMME 1.38 1 3 1022 Anti-rights for marine ecosystems RIGHTSEA 4.84 0 6 988 Marine animal/plant/ecosystem rights NODUTY 0.16 0 1 1128 No rights/duty to marine enviromnent STRDUTY 0.27 0 1 1128 Strong duty SEX 0.50 0 1 1152 Gender (male=0; female=l) AGE 4.24 1 10 1151 Age by category (1=low; 10=high) EDUC 2.86 1 5 1139 Level of educational attainment INCOME 3.25 1 10 642 Level of gross income (coded) WTPALL 49.16 0 2000 971 WTP (NAF) LNWTP3 1.88 0 7.6 971 Natural log of (WTPALL+l) PROBC 2.39 1 10 1149 Ease/difficulty with Section C of survey This is because income is correlated with age and educa- the individual derives from the marine park (BENUM; tion and, therefore, little is added to the explanatory power e.g., swimming, diving, site seeing, sunbathing). of the equation if both sets of variables are included. In A set of variables was also included to measure the addition, the income variable only had 642 responses so ethical stance being taken by the respondent. First is the that its inclusion would severely reduce the number of attitude of the individual towards rights. A seven point degrees of freedom in the estimation. Even the responses scale was developed from the questions of the survey cov- gained for income were suspected to be suffering from ering the attribution of a right to be protected from harm under-reporting, which is especially problematic when to marine animals, plants and ecosystems (RIGHTSEA). others are listening to the interview. The inclusion of a The idea was to create a scale on the basis of the con- dummy variable for tourists versus locals was strongly sistent attribution of rights. Respondents who answered insignificant, showing no difference. A set of dummies "don't know" to any of the three groups were treated as were also tried to test for the impact of language because missing data and so no position on the scale was given to the survey was translated into Dutch and Papiamentu, but these respondents. Those attributing absolute rights to all these were also found to be strongly insignificant by the three aspects of the marine environment were ranked high- t-test. The final model results are shown in Table 6.7.4 est, and those denying rights in all three cases ranked low- The knowledge and use variables proved significant est, with a graduating scale between these two extremes. determinants of WTP. Knowledge of marine biodiver- As can be seen, rights for the marine environment are sity (KNOWMBD) was derived from a survey question positively related to WTP, which means these individuals where individuals used a 10 point scale to signify their could be misconstrued as making an implicit trade-off of prior knowledge ofthe concept after having had a descrip- their rights position and this was implied earlier by the tion. Greater knowledge increases WTP This is also true development ofthe "strong duty" category. Here, the data for the use related variable, giving the number of benefits on personal duties is also incorporated in the equation. Lexicographic Preferences and the Contingent Valuation of Coral Reef Biodiversity in Cura9ao and Jamaica 113 Table 6.7. Preferred tobit model for Curagao. The dependent variable is LNWTP3. Model has 463 limit observations (zero) and 508 non-limit observations. The predicted probability of y > limit given average xi is 0.5868. The observed frequency of y> limit is 0.5232. At mean values of xi, E(y)=1.5657. Nornalised Standard Asymptotic Variable coefficient error t-ratio SEX -0.17322 0.073843 -2.3459 AGE 0.054646 0.018042 3.0288 EDUC 0.18416 0.039794 4.6278 KNOWMBD 0.051143 0.013414 3.8126 BENUM 0.18653 0.039808 4.6857 RIGHTSEA 0.15628 0.024749 6.3143 NODUTY -0.31661 0.11346 -2.7904 STRDUTY 0.16615 0.080436 2.0656 PROBC 0.041131 0.019463 2.1133 PREFINFO 0.60101 0.074180 8.1020 CONSTANT -2.0385 0.21111 -9.6561 LNWTP3 0.33092 0.011671 The role of ethical positions is confirmed by the sig- In addition, a dummy variable called PREFINFO was nificance of the dummy variables on the personal duty to included to account for whether individuals felt their pref- protect the life and habitats ofthe marine park. The dummy erences about marine biodiversity preservation had been variables represent those respondents taking the strong changed by the survey. This variable was found to be duty perspective (STRDUTY) and those rejecting any duty highly significant and positive. (NODUTY). As can be seen, a strong personal duty, re- gardless of the cost, is positively correlated with WTP, WTP Determinants for Jamaica while the rejection of this duty reduces WTP. This shows A similar semi-log linear form of model was developed that WTP for biodiversity improvement is partially related for Jamaica with a set of socio-economic variables, to the ethical concern people show for marine animals, knowledge and the position taken towards rights (i.e., a plants and ecosystems. Also, a variable on the difficulty lexicographic type preference). The range of variables found with these sets of survey questions was included in considered most important, along with some descriptive light of the results for Jamaica. This is also significant statistics, are shown in Table 6.8. The socio-economic and positively correlated, which can be seen as support- variables, in this case, are gender and income. Income ing the no duty position in that these individuals care less replaces the age and education variables of the Curacao about marine biodiversity and also find little problem in model. Income data for Jamaica was far more complete stating their lack of belief in rights. In contrast, those with 839 observations. This time, the inclusion of a concerned about biodiversity improvement struggle with dummy variable for tourists versus locals was strongly their precise ethical position and the extent to which du- significant and negatively correlated with tourists. The ties are weak (tradable) or strong (lexical). final model results are shown in Table 6.9. Thus, the overall results for Curacao show a model of The knowledge and use variables again proved sig- WTP being dependent upon standard socio-economic vari- nificant determinants of WTP. Knowledge of marine ables plus rights and duty-based variables. The RIGHT- biodiversity (KNOWMBD) was found to be similar to SEA variable is a recognition at an aggregate level of that concerning reef degradation (KNOWCD) in terms of rights in the marine environment. The STRDUTY and the equation and, in this case, the latter was used. This is NODUTY variables are specific to the marine park itself derived from a survey question where individuals used a and the extent to which individuals are prepared to pre- ten point scale to signify their prior knowledge of the vent harm at the risk ofa loss in their own living standards. causes of coral reef degradation after having had them 114 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling Table 6.8. Variable definitions and basic statistics for Jamaica. Variable Mean Min Max Valid number Label TL 0.47 0 1 1058 Tourist (1) or local (0) ENVIROAT 1.53 0 23 1058 Number of environmental concerns VISITC 0.47 0 1 1058 Ever visited marine park VISITF 0.88 0 7 1056 Visit site in future KNOWCD 4.67 1 10 1058 Knowledge of coral degradation KNOWMBD 3.29 1 10 1056 Knowledge of marine biodiversity PREFINFO 0.19 0 1 1058 Preferences changed and informed INFO 0.74 0 1 1058 Informed only RIGHTSEA 5.51 0 6 1028 Marine animal/plant/ecosystem rights NODUTY 0.11 0 1 1056 No duty to marine life/habitats STRDUTY 0.15 0 1 1056 Strong duty marine life/habitats SEX 0.56 0 1 1056 Gender (male=0; female=l) AGE 3.63 1 10 1058 Age by category (l=low; 10=high) EDUC 3.04 1 5 1058 Level of educational attainment INCOME 3.47 1 10 839 Level of gross income (coded) PROBC 1.83 1 10 1058 Difficulty with Section C of survey WTPALLX 26.24 0 2866 833 WTP (US$) LNWTP3 1.54 0 7.96 833 Natural log of WTPALLX Table 6.9. Preferred tobit model for Jamaica. The dependent variable is LNWTP3. Model has 317 limit observations (zero) and 516 non-limit observations. The predicted probability of y > limit given average xi is 0.6544. The observed frequency of y > limit is 0.6194. At mean values of xi E(y)=1.4304. Normalised Standard Asymptotic Variable coefficient error t-ratio TL -0.19667 0.083661 -2.3508 ENVIROAT 0.053173 0.024215 2.1959 INCOME 0.061696 0.015320 4.0273 NODUTY -0.48570 0.13237 -3.6693 VISITC -0.22942 0.076518 -2.9982 VISITF 0.47212 0.12543 3.7641 KNOWCD 0.038592 0.012067 3.1980 PREFINFO 0.36412 0.18868 1.9298 INFO 0.49011 0.17434 2.8112 PROBC 0.085788 0.028718 2.9872 CONSTANT -0.81805 0.23137 -3.5356 LNWTP3 0.43953 0.014998 Lexicographic Preferences and the Contingent Valuation of Coral Reef Biodiversity in Cura9ao and Jamaica 115 described. As with KNOWMBD, greater knowledge in- sity preservation had been changed by the survey. This creases WTP. This is also true for the positive likelihood was found to be highly significant and positive as in of future use of the marine park (VISITF). Also, the rela- Cura9ao. What was different here was the strong posi- tionship between WTP and having visited the park in the tive relationship of a second dummy representing the case past is negative (VISITC). This result is not uncommon of individuals whose preferences had remained unchanged for such surveys in that it implies that, once an initial cu- but who felt they had been informed. riosity is satisfied, an individual's utility from subsequent Thus, the overall results for Jamaica are in line with visits will tend to drop off (this is consistent with decreas- those for Curagao, except in that the model lacks signifi- ing marginal utility in individual preference functions). cant rights and strong duty variables. In Jamaica, the set of variables on ethical stance were less relevant. However, some role for ethical positions is Prediction of WTP confirmed by the significance of the dummy variable The expected WTP will depend on the location of the rejecting any duty (NODUTY). This is also negatively individual, their individual socio-economic characteris- correlated to WTP as was the case for Curacao. The con- tics, and their attitudes towards rights. Simulations using trast with the results for Curacao in terms of the role of the preferred models were conducted to estimate WTP ethical variables led to the inclusion of survey difficulty and the probability that they would return a non-zero bid. variables, and this showed a strong positive correlation Results are shown in Table 6.10. with WTP. However, as this was then included in the First, we note that at the sample means, WTP in Curaeao model and a similar result occurred, this alone Curacao is about US$2.08, while in Jamaica it is US$3.24. seems unable to explain the difference in results. This difference is readily explained through the differences Finally, PREFINFO is a dummy variable for whether in the mix of tourists and locals in the sample. Tourists individuals felt their preferences about marine biodiver- generally had the same WTP in Cura9ao and Jamaica- Table 6.10. Predicted WTP for Curaeao and Jamaica as a function of individual characteristics. Local and tourist statistics taken at population means. For strong duty simulation (Curaeao): RIGHTSEA=6; NODUTY=O; STRDUTY=1. For no duty simulation (Cura9ao): RIGHTSEA=O; NODUTY=1; STRDUTY=0. In Jamaica, the simulation turns on and off the NODUTY variable. Probability of Expected non-zero bid ('Io) WTP (UJS$) Curacao Sample means-all 58.33 2.08 Sample means-typical local 56.18 1.85 Sample means-typical tourist 61.15 2.46 Locals with strong moral duties/rights 69.08 4.05 Locals with no moral duties/rights 17.82 0.19 Tourists with strong moral duties/rights 74.18 5.82 Tourists with no moral duties/rights 22.01 0.26 Jamaica Sample means-all 65.77 3.24 Sample means-typical local 68.49 3.75 Sarnple means-typical tourist 62.51 2.73 Locals with moral duties/rights 70.72 4.26 Locals with no moral duties/rights 52.37 1.66 Tourists with moral duties/rights 64.22 2.98 Tourists with no moral duties/rights 45.17 1.17 116 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling US$2.46 and US$2.73 respectively. Jamaicans, on the the environment was contrasted with stated WTP in terms other hand, were willing to pay almost double their coun- of a zero bid for reasons of non-zero value. In this case, terparts in Curacao. WTP was for an environmental improvement. The importance of perceptions relating to rights and Zero bid reasons were identified as those which are in duties, however, is again seen in the WTP results. The accord with economic theory and those which are more tobit model simulations were conducted with the duty and problematic, representing a protest which cannot be taken right variables tuned to their highest and lowest possible as reflecting zero value. The combined result of all the combinations. The Curacao set permitted a more extreme reasons falling under the second category is to bias down- case because of the three variables, while the Jamaica is ward WTP because many ofthe respondents are concerned a "softer" comparison. The results show that people with about biodiversity and place a positive value upon it. In some duty and rights perceptions are willing to pay ap- the survey sample, this proved to be a substantial group proximately two to three times as much as those who have with 32% and 27% of zero bids for Curacao and Jamaica, no such attachments; people with very strong perceptions respectively, reflecting non-zero values. This excludes will pay at least an order of magnitude more. Interest- those in the "other" and "refuse/unable to answer" cat- ingly, in the Curacao case, those with absolutely no moral egories who may also place a positive value on biodiver- attachment are expected to pay virtually nothing. sity improvement. Those claiming a strong duty accounted for one third to one sixth of the sample, as shown in Table 6.11. When Conclusions the data were analyzed for zero bids, in terms of time and money being given for reasons of non-zero value (which The goal of this study was to undertake a contingent valu- also excludes those unable to pay-the low income earn- ation analysis of coral reef quality for amenity, biodiver- ers and the unemployed), the sub-sample falls to a few sity, and other values in Montego Bay, Jamaica, and reef percent. There was no apparent difference between the areas along the south coast of Curacao. Coral reef con- tourist and local sub-samples as might be expected if the servation benefits were to be valued in monetary terms result was due to the developing country context. An- with a view to identifying various economic and demo- other explanation may be that, because the study took the graphic characteristics of this valuation and its deter- case of an environmental improvement, less controversy minants (e.g., education, gender, and knowledge of bio- arose than if a WTP were asked for preventing an envi- diversity, local versus tourist). Although CVM is well ronmental deterioration (i.e., the low percentage of pro- developed and routinely used in assessing environmental tests among zero bidders consistent with a strong duty). benefits, two broad areas of innovation were part of the However, as Table 6.11 shows, the process adopted here current study in the context of coral reefs. First, a rigor- for confirming respondents' adoption of a strong duty was ous developing country CVM analysis was undertaken also effective in reducing the proportion claiming abso- of an environmental resource that had previously been lute rights. Respondents claiming a strong duty to protect neglected (i.e., coral reef quality); most developing coun- the environment were identified after probing questions try CVM studies having focused on other issues, such as confronted the respondent with a hypothetical trade-off water quality, or on specific urban locations. Second, and in terms of their current living standard. The result con- more significantly from a research perspective, the recent trasts with those attributing general but absolute rights to CVM literature had identified the existence of lexico- aspects of the marine environment, being two thirds or graphic preferences as one of a number of outstanding more of the sample. methodological questions associated with biodiversity While the finding of only a few percent of respond- valuation that required further analysis. The research ents in the protest-zero-lexicographic position does con- addressed itself directly to this issue. flict with that of earlier studies, some caution should be The lexicographic preference can be consistent with taken in generalising the result. As mentioned, a positive a positive or zero WTP. The expectation of protest re- bid for an environmental improvement can be consistent sponses associated with zero bids for reasons of non-zero with a lexicographic position because any increase in the value has been studied in a developed country context highly ranked good will increase welfare regardless of and has shown that around one fifth of respondents reject the loss of those goods ranked as inferior. A second im- trade-offs when asked to pay to prevent environmental provement or a reversal of the improvement would both deterioration. A similar approach was adopted here in elicit a zero WTP because the individual has no income that the consistency of claiming a strong duty to protect left (or no spare income under modified lexicographic Lexicographic Preferences and the Contingent Valuation of Coral Reef Biodiversity in Cura9ao and Jamaica 117 Table 6.11. Type and consistency of rights and duties for zero bidders. Cura! ao Jamaica Total Locals Tourists Locals Tourists Sample size 656 496 565 493 2210 Absolute marine rights (number) 322 251 385 441 1399 Absolute marine rights (% of samnple) 58.9 56.9 71.8 89.6 63.3 Strong duty (number) 173 135 88 70 466 Strong duty (% of sample) 26.4 27.2 15.6 15.0 21.1 Strong duty and zero bid for reason of non-zero value (number) 20 14 6 12 52 Strong duty and zero bid for reason of non-zero value (% of sample) 3.0 2.8 1.0 2.4 2.4 preferences). This raises the interesting possibility that legal enforcement and, to a lesser extent, lifestyle changes. those refusing to bid more for the improvement of other This poses a problem for CVM as currently practiced reefs that were classified as showing part-whole bias (see because it places the problem in a specific institutional Spash et al. 1998) may have lexicographic preferences. setting when framing the WTP or WTA question and fails In addition, the rights-based position and implied duty to allow for such alternatives. does seem to influence bids as shown by the bid curve analysis. This result is very strong for Curacao, but more Endnotes limited for Jamaica. This Jamaican result led to consid- eration of the difficulty respondents may have had in an- Option value arises when there is uncertainty about the con- swering the survey. In both countries, the levels of diffi- tinued supply of a good or service and an individual is pre- culty respondents were observed to have in answering pared to pay to keep a future option open for use of the good the rights and duties section of the survey has a signifi- or service. Bequest value refers to the welfare from endow- cant and positive influence on WTP. As this was an un- ing future generations with goods and services. Existence expected finding, explanations are purely speculative. value is more controversial and varies in definition in the literature, but essentially tries to capture the welfare related However, one possibility is that people who dismiss rights to knowing something exists; this welfare is independent of and duties for the environment can answer quickly with- any use which might be made either directly or indirectly out problems and are also likely to give a low WTP bid. (i.e., by future generations). Those who are more concerned, with a higher WTP, strug- 2 A quota sample is conducted so as to take into account gle when confronted by the idea that they make trade-offs specified population characteristics such as the ratio of male but, when pressed to do so, conform but still regard the to female respondents, age distribution, and income dis- language of rights as a more appropriate description of tribution. their actual position. Placing a set of right questions prior 3 Note ii the table that to prevent estimation biases and pro- to the WTP question may, therefore, result in the respond- vide a basis for conducting the tobit runs, the dependent ents finding the bid section problematic rather than the variable is specified as LNWTP3, which is the natural loga- ethics section. rithm of the WTP plus one. The addition of INAF intro- In terms of the design of CVM, the study shows a duces a bias of about +0.1% in the estimates but provides a Inethodolog fofrth classifying lexiCogphic studype ps a truncation point on all of the relevant data (i.e., LNWTP=O methodology for classify,ing lexicographic type prefer- if and only if WTPALL=0). ences. The second stage is then to develop checks for 4 Unlike OLS estimates, the estimators in this table cannot be consistency in terms of WTP, and this was only partially used directly to derive a WTP through simple multiplica- achieved here because of the concentration on zero bid- tion. Actual estimation of the WTP requires transformation ders and relative neglect of positive bidders in the analy- of this function and application of density function for any sis. However, the consistent results for the strong duty given set of characteristics. This is most readily done in a holders across the two countries shows they are in favor simulation environment, dealt with later in this section. of alternative institutional approaches such as education, Chapter 7 Montego Bay Pharmaceutical Bioprospecting Valuation Cynthia Cartier and Jack Ruitenbeek HJ Rutitenbeek Resource Consulting Limited, Gabriola, BC, Canada A preliminary review of issues and valuation methods Appropriately, a more detailed analysis was pursued showed that utility, production, and rent valuation ap- to place an economic value on marine pharmaceutical bio- proaches can all be used to estimate the value of marine prospecting opportunities at Montego Bay, Jamaica. The products through bioprospecting (Huber and Ruitenbeek study consisted of: 1997). The review confirmed that, for marine organisms, . Specific methodology selection and development based the biochemical information derived from these organ- on a literature review and analysis; isms is as important as the actual use of the organism it- . Further contracting of firms active in Caribbean bio- self. Appropriately, a key recommendation was that any prospecting to obtain confidential information relating chosen methodology should be capable of addressing in- to hit rates; formation content in coral reef or marine organisms. Most . Estimation of sales and cost information specific to utility oriented approaches are incapable of separating this Montego Bay; information value. A second aspect of the review con- - Development of a hypothetical sampling program for firmed that institutional structures and revenue or rent Montego Bay to form the basis for simulation studies; sharing arrangements are key influencing variables in the and, valuation of marine products. * Economic modeling of values. For these approaches to be successful, data must be available to translate sampling information (e.g., species types and counts) into final commercial products; these Model Selection and Key Valuation Issues are usually translated through a series of "hit rates." While such hit rates are known for advanced stages of research The review of methods and models relevant to phar- and development (R&D), most of the literature relates to maceutical bioprospecting benefit valuation (Cartier and terrestrial organisms. A preliminary survey of primary Ruitenbeek 1999; Annex A) provides a basis for dem- marine bioassay data was therefore specifically conducted, onstrating how modeling techniques have evolved, as with the confidential cooperation of a number of private well as for selecting a technique relevant to the Montego companies andprivate research institutes (Putterman 1997; Bay situation. The literature review highlighted a num- Chapter 12). The exercise demonstrated that data collec- ber of factors that have tended to be crucial in the deri- tion of this sort was viable (Table 7.1). vation of values in terrestrial bioprospecting valuation models (Table 7.2). First, it is clear that different models Table 7.1 Preliminary survey of primary screening generally have different policy applications and, above hit rates (%) from a collection of 20,000 all, selection of a relevant technique should be suited to Caribbean marine organisms the policy problem at hand. In the case of Montego Bay, the valuation research was primarily intended to assist in Antiviral data 0.3 to 10.9 site specific priority setting and planning, although a key Antimicrobial data (bacteria) 3.6 to 24.2 aspect was also to build awareness. Antimicrobial data (fungi) 9.0 to 9.6 The model specification issues include: i) estimation Enzyme data (protein phosphatases) 0.25 to 0.93 of gross vs. net economic values; ii) estimation of pri- Enzyme data (other) 0.05 to 0.65 vate vs. social returns; iii) capture of rent shares by local governments; iv) estimation of average vs. marginal re- Source: Putterman (1997). turns, and the role of redundancy and substitutability in 120 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling Table 7.2 Comparative summary of pharmaceutical bioprospecting models Model Attributes Analytical specification only v Terrestrial system application V v v v v Marine system application V Policy Applications Education and awareness v National level policies v v v v v Private profitability analysis v V v Site specific planning V v V General Economic Attributes Gross economic value v Net economic value v v v v v v Privatecosts v v V V V v V Social costs (including institutional) v v v v Time delays v V V V V v Average species value v v v v v v Marginal species value v v Average habitat value V v v v v Marginal habitat value v v v v Specific Model Parameters Discovery process stages (hit rates) 1 1 1 1 9 1 3 Discovery process stages (costs) 1 1 1 1 9 1 1 Revenue sharing treatment * * v * v v Redundancy/ interdependency V * v Ecosystem yield (species-area relationship) v v v v "Price function" (once differentiable value) V v v v Industry structure/ behavior f Risk preference/ aversion behavior * f V explicitly relevant or incorporated U treated qualitatively or partially Montego Bay Pharmaceutical Bioprospecting Valuation 121 each of these; and, v) treatment of complexity through an important issue. One perspective is that if new dis- interdependence of discoveries and ecosystem yields. The coveries have redundant attributes with those already relevance of these issues to Montego Bay, and their treat- discovered, then marginal species values will go down ment within the model selection, is as follows: as more drugs are developed. A second perspective is that some bioprospecting in fact relies on looking for • Gross versus net values. The primary policy planning product redundancy, with a view to discovering cheaper issue for Montego Bay is to look at net potential ben- sources of existing materials. For Montego Bay, we do efits accruing to bioprospecting and to other reef uses not explore the redundancy or substitutability issue. (Chapter 5). This requires some ability to deal with site specific costs, realizing, however, that expected ' Phase-specaic costs. Most of the literature has assumed sitespecific rev es, realizing, however, c othany expetd a single discovery phase and cost for the R&D process sales revenues are likely to be common with any type when, as noted by Artuso (1997), a more accurate of drug development, irrespective of product source, modeling of the process would recognize that many of • Social versus private valuations. One component of the success rates are in fact endogenously determined the modeling literature is concerned with the general and the cost and success rates are co-determined within private profitability and incentive structures associated a firm's or industry's optimizing behavior. If one rec- with drug production and marketing, as well as with ognizes this separation, it implies that there are R&D. These models typically incorporate taxation pro- mechanisms that will tend to maintain the activity at visions within their various analytical stages. For Mon- some profitable level. Using a nine stage R&D proc- tego Bay, such analyses are of low priority concern. ess, Artuso (1997) shows that this has important impli- Of greater consequence is the magnitude of social ben- cations for genetic resource values and industry efits and the potential for capturing these efficiently. behavior, as well as for risk mitigation within the sec- Private profitability is of concern to the extent that tor. For Montego Bay, we are primarily interested in any revenue sharing arrangements must not discour- the ecosystem values, although we acknowledge that age bioprospecting. A related aspect is the potential some separation of R&D success rates and costs is institutional overhead cost involved in maintaining a important. The Montego Bay data are, however, con- structure that oversees bioprospecting contracting. The strained such that optimization studies are not feasible, social costs associated with such activities should be although we do use a three stage R&D process to in- considered in any model that is developed for Montego corporate a number of the phase-specific results ob- Bay. tained from industry sources. A Average versus marginal values. This issue relates to * Revenue sharing. Many analysts have addressed "cap- whether the policy problem at hand is concerned with turable value" but our concern here is to pay somewhat expected average values or marginal values of species greater attention to institutional financial mechanisms and habitats. Much early literature was pre-occupied such as royalty rates, revenue shares, and sample fees, with average species values, even though site specific as well as to show how these mitigate risks in the bio- planning problems generally require translation of such prospecting process. Our model should, therefore, be values into marginal habitat values attributable to an capable of conducting some simple trade-off analyses ecosystem (e.g., rainforest or coral reef). Analysts have to demonstrate the effectiveness in risk mitigation of addressed this problem throughvarious means. Simpson different mechanisms. et al. (1996) attribute the marginal species value to the value of a collection and translate these to marginal habi- tat values. Artuso (1997) essentially derives expected Model Specification, Assumptions and (average) values for species or samples and translates Information Sources them to marginal habitat values using species-area rela- tionships for hypothetical habitats. We will in essence In sunmary, the estimating model for Montego Bay bio- be following this latter approach, with a view to even- prospecthe estona model of avegocial bio tually deriving a marginal habitat benefit or "price". prospecting focuses on a model of average social net re- Consistent with earlier literature in cost-benefit analy- turns using localized cost information for Jamaica and sis, we refer to such prices as "planning prices" to the benefit values and success rates based on proprietary in- extent that they are the relevant shadow prices to use formation for marine products in the Caribbean. The in- for land use, investment, and other allocation decisions. stitutional costs associated with rent capture are included * Redundancy. The literature deals with related issues for Montego Bay. The adopted model uses some of the such as "redundancy", "substitutability", and "condi- concepts incorporated in the terrestrial bioprospecting val- tional probabilities" within the R&D process and dis- uation models and builds on these for the marine environ- covery sequence. There remains, at this stage, debate ment by explicitly introducing parameters relating to rent over the extent to which redundancy of discoveries is distribution and complexity, as reflected by ecosystem 122 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling yield. Sensitivity analyses demonstrate that these two species area relationship parameters c and z; parameters are likely to have the most significant impact and, on captured values and on planning problems. Rent dis- s = average number of samples available for any tribution is introduced as a policy variable, while ecosys- given species. tem yield is a measure of species and sample yield poten- In addition, we introduce the following cost and rev- tially available from the Montego Bay reefs. We derive enue sharing parameters to reflect captures of values: likely estimate ranges for the latter based on typical spe- cies-area relationships postulated in the island biogeo- a =contingent royalty on final drug sales graphy literature (Quammen 1996; Reaka-Kudla 1997; expressed as a net profit share; Simberloff and Abele 1976). Finally, the results are once = a per sample fee that involves a transfer to differentiated to derive a marginal benefit function, which local authorities for sample collection (or for relates value to coral reef abundance or area and can be multiple sample rentals); and, interpreted as our estimate of coral reef "price" that would I = institutional costs attributable to collection. be applied within a planning framework. Similar to other The rent capture, or local value to Jamaica, in this models of this genre, social values are inferred from the case is behavior of private agents and the model excludes any T explicit estimation of option values. EV =caEV - I + y JN, (I + Model Structure We also define global and Jamaican planning prices (PG and P~ respectively) as the change in value as a result While many of the models in the literature isolate termi- f an change in reefeaea,asuhstha nal values of the R&D change, the model here is regarded of a change m reef area such that as a current ecosystem planning model and thus discounts p all values to the present, using the "sample" as the initial = -E /dA basis of analysis. The expected net sample value (ENV7,) p = dEVjd of N, samples collected in year t, including collection costs, dA is thus We note here that because institutional costs are re- ENVN, = pN, (1 + r)t EVD,+, (I + r)T - CN, (I + r)t garded as fixed, the planning prices are independent of where p = the cumulative probability of developing a such costs. commercial drug from a given sample; EVDt, r =expected future value of a commercial Revenues and Costs drug net of R&D costs; Revenue and R&D cost estimates for product develop- length of the R&D period; ment are chosen to be in line with most of the received C= individual sample costs; and, literature for bioprospecting on terrestrial species. Based r = discount rate (10% real). on the models surveyed in Chapter 3, the expected value Essentially, we take a future value of a drug and trans- of new drug development, excluding R&D costs, is esti- late it into present value terms, recognizing that the sam- mated to fall in the range of US$173 million to US$354 ple is collected as part of a broader sampling program of million, with a mean of US$233 million. This value is N samples over a sampling program {N} . the net present value (NPV) in 1998 dollars discounted to We now introduce an ecosystem yield and capability the time at which a sample is taken. R&D costs, exclud- function that constrains the total sampling of N available ing sample collection, are estimated to fall in the range samples in a given area to a sustainable annual level (N). of US$116 million to US$201 million, with a mean of The expected value (EV) of the sampling program of US$170 million. In our study, we use an R&D cost of length T is then T US$160 million and a sales value of US$240 million. This EV = , ENVN, ratio of 1.5:1 is consistent with many of the other esti- r=o mates in the literature, with the exception of Mendelsohn subject to Nt Nma, for all t and Balick (1995, 1997), who calculate a moderate loss T = N/N,,, in NPV using their model for an individual firm. N =sS The costs for sample collection were based on propri- S = cAz etary cost estimates relating to tropical sampling programs. where S = number of species in an area, defined by the These estimates place "material only" costs in the range Montego Bay Pharmaceutical Bioprospecting Valuation 123 These estimates place "material only" costs in the range any contingent compensation in the form of royalties. A of US$6 to US$35 per sample for Florida, and "all in" second sensitivity scenario involves a similarly "revenue local costs of US$40 to US$80 per sample for the Indian neutral" mix in which the net profit share drops to 8% Ocean and South Pacific. Costs for the Caribbean are in and the sample fee is set at US$50 per sample. the range of US$50 to US$ 100 per sample using scuba; the survey indicated that samples that had undergone some Sampling and Hit Rates primary screening could attract a premium of US$75 per The model requires estimates of N._ and p. Sampling sample. Costs using submersible techniques were con- ax siderably higher, approaching US$350 per sample. We rte isdperhaps one of the most overlooked parameters in note, however, that in all of these cases the surveys showed other modeling efforts, yet it plays an important role in costs below those cited by Newman (1y995) for National esshn e stem value. A very slow sampling rate Cancer Institute (NCI) bioprospecting programs in the depresses present values, while a very high sampling rate South Pacific. The NCI programs typically involved costs maitibe aelicl sarinable; osoe fobrerhave of U$500per ampl, whch nclued sipmet toand criticized aggressive marine bioprospecting for endanger- of US$500 per sample, which included shipment to and cold storage in the United States. For the purposes of our ing some species. To ensure that a reasonable level of study, we have chosen a mid-point of US$75 per sample sampling occurs, a hypothetical program for Montego Bay for the Caribbean collection costs, was laid out using typical methodologies used by the NCI (Colin 1998). The NCI observes that a team of up to four divers would generate at most 15 samples a day. This is CnstitutianaRevn Pramers- regarded as a sustainable effort for Montego Bay (which C-osts and Revenue Sharing has a relatively limited area of about 43ha) and is also Cost estimates for the institutional requirements are based consistent with logistical constraints of servicing a col- on discussions with the Government of Jamaica follow- lection program. Assuming full-time regular employment ing an assessment of local capacity in various ministries. of the team over a ten month period (avoiding the hurri- Based on current salary scales, overheads and training cane season), the model assumes a maximum annual sam- requirements, it is estimated that the system of permit pling rate of 3,300 samples. In sensitivity analyses, we validation, and associated checks, will involve annual subsequently relax this constraint to illustrate the impact costs of approximately US$23,000. This is equivalent to of an accelerated sampling program in which all samples one part-time professional along with associated admin- are collected in a single year. istrative and travel overheads. At a 10% discount rate, Various firms were contracted to provide information this amount is equivalent to US$230,000 NPV and would relating to marine bioprospecting success rates. Although be adequate to cover most of the country's requirements the detailed information is proprietary, summary statis- in the marine bioprospecting area. Allocation of this tics adequate for modeling are presented here. The firms' amount to any given area is methodologically problem- programs generally implied success rates to final prod- atic but, as noted later, the amount is small relative to uct development in the range of 1:25,000 to 1:50,000; other values and thus would not have a significant impact these success rates incorporated screening against mul- on planning decisions. tiple targets (up to ten). Two specific examples serve to Revenue sharing simulations essentially show three illustrate: scenarios in addition to the implicit status quo in which * FIRMA. A set of 13,779 samples were analyzed for no revenue is collected by Jamaica. As a reference case, ten targets. Not all samples were subjected to each we select a net profit share level (a) of 10% as a maxi- target. At the primary screen, 5,137 were isolated and mum capturable under typical regimes negotiated in the then passed on to subsequent screening and analysis. industry. This is also consistent with levels typically Through the following stages, six to seven drug leads assumed by other analysts (Aylward 1993; Pearce and were eventually identified and were at various stages Puroshothaman 1 992a, 1 992b). Two sensitivity scenarios of preclinical trials and licensing prior to clinical trials. are solved for within the model. One involves the "equi- This implies a cumulative hit rate to the preclinical valent fee only" level that would generate approximately trial stage of 1:2,120. We use Artuso's (1997) esti- mates for subsequent success rates for typical testing the same level of captured rent as in the base case; this is programs (0.4 for preclinical; cumulative 0.25 for three somewhat over US $250 per sample and could be col- clinical stages; 0.9 for new drug approval) to arrive at lected either through licensing or through multiple ren- a cumulative probability of 1:23,600 from that set of tals of samples. In that scenario, the country foregoes samples. 124 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling * FIRMB. A set of 5,400 samples was analyzed against Role of Coral Abundance multiple targets. Through two stages of screening and further analyses, four leads were isolated and derep- The amount of intact and live coral reef available in licated. This implies a cumulative hit rate to the syn- Montego Bay is the subject of some controversy, and the thesis/modification stage of 1:1,350. Using Artuso's causes and extent of degradation remain the subject of (1997) estimates of success beyond this stage (same as open debate (Chapters 1 and 8). Literature has placed above, and 0.5 for successful synthesis/modification), coral abundance as high as 74% and as low as 5% a cumulative probability of 1:30,075 is estimated for (Table 7.3). No systematic comprehensive surveys have that set of samples. been undertaken over the entire zone, and the nature of In the base case, we use a cumulative success rate of the estimates often differ methodologically. Moreover, 1:30,000. This is higher than most terrestrial estimates, there is significant local concem that overstating the which are typically of the order of 1:100,000, and also amount of degradation may inadvertently deter tourists, higher than reported programs for shallow water marine even though most divers and tourists feel that the reef invertebrates from the Pacific Ocean analyzed by the NCI quality is quite good. For our purposes, we primarily rely (Newman 1995). The latter were estimated to generate on two results. commercial products at a rate of 1:80,000 at best. We First, total coral area was analyzed based on GIS in- utilize this poorer hit rate as a sensitivity case in our terpretation of polygons as presented in the Coastal Atlas analyses. of Jamaica (Natural Resources Conservation Authority of Table 7.3 Selected live coral estimates for Montego Bay Source Coral abundance (%) Basis Discovery Bay Marine Laboratory 10 to 74 1982 baseline estimate of 9 transects Hughes(1994) 5 to 12 shallow water surveys of 2 sites Sullivan and Chiappone (1994) 15 to 25 rapid ecological assessment Hitchman (1997) <13 14 samnple sites in high impact area of Montego Bay and Bogue Lagoon Hong Kong University of Science and 22 [1997] Caribbean wide, the 1997 Reef Check Technology, Reef Check 1997 <22 [preliminary 1998] survey noted that low levels were "possibly reflecting losses due to bleaching and disease" Kent Gustavson, pers. comm. 1998 25 of substrate personal estimate Stephen Jameson, pers. comm. 1998 15 of substrate personal estimate Jill Williams, pers. comm. 1998 25 to 50+ of substrate reports from local fishers, divers, and other resource users; many good sites "at depth" Ruitenbeek et al. (1999a; see also 24 to 38 of substrate model equilibrium predictions for low Chapter 8) stress and high stress conditions, excluding fishery sector reforms Ruitenbeek et al. (1999a; see also 29 to 43 of substrate model equilibrium predictions for low Chapter 8) stress and high stress conditions, including fishery sector reforms Montego Bay Pharmaceutical Bioprospecting Valuation 125 Jamaica). This shows a total area of coral substrate of ap- on average three testable samples, each of which may in proximately 42.65ha. Second, long-term coral cover was turn be assayed for multiple targets. The resultant number based on fizzy logic model calculations of the ecosystem of "described species", "expected species", astabilizeed under various stress assumptions (Chapter 8). At current samples" is shown in Table 7.4. The actual value for z levels of fishing pressure, the equilibrium abundance level for marine systems has continued to be the subject oflively was predicted to be 39.8%. With expected reforms to the debate, ever since Simberloff and Abele (1976) observed fishery, it is expected that damage will decrease and abun- for a coral reef site that two small areas could harbor more dance would increase to 42.7%. We note that under sus- different species than one of the same total area. This tained economic growth as forecast by local authorities, would imply that a certain amount of fragmentation, or the model predicted that coral quality would decline to even die-back, was not necessarily undesirable, and that the region of 20% to 25% abundance. For the purposes such isolation may in fact lead to increased speciation of simulation, therefore, we take a 43% abundance level under certain conditions. The sensitivity of sample yield as a status quo scenario and a 25% abundance level as a to this parameter is, however, of critical importance in degradation scenario. In terms of reef areas, these levels deriving value estimates. For example, Table 7.4 shows correspond to 18.34ha and 10.66ha respectively. a variation from 10,600 to 47,400 expected species in the reference case. Ecosystem Yield and the Species-Area Relationship Following Reaka-Kudla (1997), we take a standard spe- Valuation Results and Discussion cies-area relationship for marine organisms of the forn S=cAl. In the reference case, we take z'=0.265, but a plau- Using typical cost estimates for Jamaica and using typi- sible range for this parameter is z=0.2 to z=0.3. Consist- cal hit rates and end-use values, scenario analyses were ent with other findings, we assume each species yields conducted using the parametric model. The reference Table 7.4 Estimated coral reef species and sample numbers based on species-area relationships Reef area Described Expected Expected Survey (h a) species species samples length (vrs) z=0.200 100% cover 42.65 5,501 56,076 168,227 51.0 43% cover (reference case) 18.34 4,647 47,366 142,099 43.1 25% cover (degradation case) 10.66 4,169 42,497 127,492 38.6 5% cover (collapse case) 2.13 3,022 30,801 92,404 28.0 z=0.265 100% cover 42.65 2,195 22,370 67,110 20.3 43% cover (reference case) 18.34 1,755 17,887 53,660 16.3 25% cover (degradation case) 10.66 1,520 15,492 46,477 14.1 5% cover (collapse case) 2.13 992 10,113 30,340 9.2 z='0.300 100% cover 42.65 1,338 13,638 40,915 12.4 43% cover(reference case) 18.34 1,039 10,588 31,763 9.6 25% cover (degradation case) 10.66 883 8,998 26,994 8.2 5% cover (collapse case) 2.13 545 5,552 16,656 5.0 Note: The benchmark global value from which these are derived is from Reaka-Kudla (1997) using 93,000 total described coral reef species from an area of 588,960km2. This implies by solution c=2,750 in the reference case, where z=0.265. A ratio of 10.2:1 expected species to currently described species is also based on Reaka-Kudla (1997, p. 93f), who suggests this as a most likely ratio based on assessments of rainforest and coral reef species-area dynamics. Survey length is based on a maximum of 3,300 samples annually. 126 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling case places marine bioprospecting values at just under Detailed sensitivity results are shown in Table 7.5. US$2,600 per sample or US$7,775 per species. The per The analysis confirms that the impacts of the incremental species values are somewhat higher than the typical esti- institutional costs for operating a national program con- mates for terrestrial species, primarily because of the sistent with the recommendations by Putterman (1998; higher demonstrated success rates in terms of product Chapter 12) are minimal. It would appear, therefore, that development. such institutional investments are warranted. Using base case estimates of ecosystem yields for the The first significant conclusion is that ecosystem val- Montego Bay area, coupled with the hypothetical sam- ues, in terms of prices that would enter a planning func- pling program that would be consistent with the NCI tion for land allocation and investment decisions, are more standards for marine sampling, abase case value of US$70 sensitive to assumptions regarding ecosystem yield than million is ascribed to the Montego Bay reefs. Of this, they are to most economic parameters considered. At approximately US$7 million would be realistically cap- low values of z, implying relatively little response of turable by Jamaica under typical royalty regimes or sam- species to changes in area, marginal values drop to as ple rental arrangements. None of this value is captured low as US$3,000/% coral abundance. This can also be under existing institutional arrangements. demonstrated through the first differential of the value The base case value of US$70 million corresponds to function (Figure 7.1). The marginal benefit curve is very equilibrium coral abundance levels of 43% on available steep at low levels of coral abundance, implying high substrate. Ecosystem model predictions set this as a long- values when the resource is about to "collapse", but at term equilibrium in the event of no additional stresses on the levels relevant for planning (generally taken to be the reef. Where current economic growth places new between 20% and 50% coral abundance), planning prices stresses on the reef, a predicted "degradation" to approx- are relatively low. imately 25% is set as a comparative case. Under this Second, the results show a number of important po- latter case, the global value of the reef would be US$66 tential risk mitigation strategies. In the base case of a million, a loss of about US$4 million. 10% net profit share, the expected value of the sampling The first differential of the benefit function is calcu- generates a marginal benefit to Jamaica of US$22,600/% lated to arrive at an ecosystem marginal "global planning coral abundance. Conversion of this share to a US$250 price" of US$530,000/ha or US$225,000/% coral abun- sample collection fee, or to rentals equivalent to this fee, dance. For Jamaica's share, the relevant "local planning would generate a similar price of US$21,800/% coral price" computes to approximately US$22,500/% coral abundance. This price is maintained, of course, even if abundance. The model demonstrates the sensitivity of total hit rates are lower or R&D costs go up as the value is and marginal values to ecosystem yield and institutional linked only to the sampling program. It is probable that, arrangements for capturing genetic prospecting value. For in general, an appropriate risk mitigation strategy for example, sensitivity analyses within the plausible range Jamaica would likely involve some combination of roy- of species-area relationships generated global benefits for alty or profit share payment (a >0) and modest sample the Montego Bay reef of US$54 million to US$85 mil- fee. Such a strategy would guarantee captured values of lion, with reef prices ranging from US$698,000/ha to the same order as those expected in the reference case, US$72,500/ha. but would reduce exposure to hit rate uncertainties, prod- The relatively low "price" and the apparently small uct marketing uncertainties, and ecosystem dynamics. drop in benefits from significant coral reef degradation In addition, we note that even with this sampling pro- underlines the importance of the ecosystem yield. In gram there is, of course, no guarantee of a hit. One can, effect, two factors contribute to this result. First, be- in fact, calculate the expected number of samples that must cause of the non-linear relationship between species and be collected to generate at least one hit. When the hit rate area, a decrease in coral abundance does not translate one is 1:30,000, this corresponds to 21,000 samples, and when to one into a decrease in species or available samples. it is 1:80,000 the expected number of samples is 55,000. Second, the loss in available samples is not experienced This higher number is almost identical to the base case immediately; annual sampling constraints under a sus- expectation that the system will yield 53,660 samples. tainable program using the NCI standards at Montego In the mineral prospecting literature, the situation of not Bay would yield approximately 3,300 samples annually. achieving a "hif' is referred to as "gambler's ruin" and, The economic effect of these "lost samples" is therefore while venture capital markets act to take on risks like discounted substantially and would consequently have this, governments are often reluctant to enter into such less of an impact on current management decisions. arrangements. In this case, therefore, a public body would Montego Bay Pharmaceutical Bioprospecting Valuation 127 Table 7.5 Model results for Montego Bay marine pharrnaceutical bioprospecting valuation. Parametric assumptions relate to the z-factor within a species-area relationship (S=cAz), a contingent net profit share (a), and a fixed sampling fee level (/). Model solves for total samples (N) available at Montego Bay and the typical length (1) of sampling program that would be required to harvest these. Economic calculations relate to the expected net present value of the program to the world (NPVG) and to Jamaica (NPYV). A first differential of the function yields a global "price" (PG) and Jamaican "price" (P) for coral reefs that could be applied within a planning framework equating marginal benefits to marginal costs. z a f N T NPVG NP VJ PG Pi (%) (US$ per (yrs) (million (million (US$/%) (US$/%) Case sample) US$) US$) Base Case Scenario at 43% Coral Abundance Referencea 0.265 10 0 53,660 16.3 70.09 7.01 225,614 22,561 Highz 0.3 10 0 31,763 9.6 54.46 5.45 297,516 29,752 Lowz 0.2 10 0 142,099 43.1 84.61 8.46 30,901 3,090 Fee only 0.265 0 250 53,660 16.3 70.09 6.76 225,614 21,763 High z 0.3 0 250 31,763 9.6 54.46 5.25 297,516 28,699 Lowz 0.2 0 250 142,099 43.1 84.61 8.16 30,901 2,981 Blended revenue shares 0.265 8 50 53,660 16.3 70.09 6.96 225,614 22,402 Highz 0.3 8 50 31,763 9.6 54.46 5.41 297,516 29,541 Low z 0.2 8 50 142,099 43.1 84.61 8.40 30,901 3,068 High R&D cost 0.265 10 0 53,660 16.3 17.64 1.76 56,783 5,678 [R/C ratio=1.1:1] 0.265 0 250 53,660 16.3 17.64 6.76 56,783 21,763 0.265 8 50 53,660 16.3 17.64 2.76 56,783 8,895 Low hit rate 0.265 10 0 53,660 16.3 25.02 2.50 80,525 8,052 [1:80,000] 0.265 0 250 53,660 16.3 25.02 6.76 80,525 21,763 0.265 8 50 53,660 16.3 25.02 3.35 80,525 10,795 Unconstrainedb 0.265 10 0 53,660 1.0 139.07 13.91 1,054,202 105,420 Highz 0.3 10 0 31,763 1.0 82.32 8.23 699,475 69,948 Lowz 0.2 10 0 142,099 1.0 368.27 36.83 2,145,937 214,594 Institutionalc 0.265 10 0 53,660 16.3 70.09 6.96 225,614 22,561 Degradation Scenario at 25% Coral Abundance reference z 0.265 10 0 46,477 14.1 66.12 6.61 highz 0.3 10 0 26,994 8.2 49.37 4.94 lowz 0.2 10 0 127,492 38.6 84.06 8.41 a Uses study result hit rate of 1:30,000 and sales:R&D cost ratio of 1.5:1. PG and P. may be converted to US$/ha basis by dividing by 0.4265. b Assumes all samples are collected and subjected to preliminary screening within 1 year. c Includes institutional overheads of central government agencies. 128 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling likely prefer some guaranteed income, even if it means from US$225,000/% coral abundance to just over US$1 giving up some future royalty position. million/% coral abundance. In the case where z=0.2, Third, it is instructive to consider how values shift planning prices could exceed US$2 million/% coral abun- under an accelerated unconstrained sampling program. dance, equivalent to some US$5 million/ha. As noted by Evenson and Lemarie (1998), geographical Logistically, this latter result would require extrac- considerations in optimal global search programs may tion of some 142,000 samples from the site over a ten imply intensifying searches in those areas with lower costs month period. This would in tum require having almost and higher potential yields. While we have not compared 200 divers in the water daily, with their itinerant support the Montego Bay site to other sites, the economic impli- structures for sample storage and analysis. In the case of cation of such an intensified search is that samples should Montego Bay, such activity levels far exceed the capacity normally be gathered and screened as rapidly as possible of the support infrastructure, saying nothing about the in the preferred sites. Simulation results for Montego Bay potential impacts that such activities might have on the show that relaxing the sampling constraint causes the base reefs themselves. Such collection realities are, in many case expected value to double, from US$70 million to cases, likely to constrain optimal search programs even US$139 million. This comes as a consequence of accel- at the most promising sites. But the results of the sensitiv- erating expected discoveries, and thus diminishing the ity analysis show us that concerns such as yield, and how effects of discounting. The effects on planning prices are, a single site fits into a larger global picture, are important however, more profound. In the base case, these increase aspects of valuing coral reef biodiversity. marginal benefit of coral reef improvement (US$/% abundance) 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 Z=O.2¾,. 0 20 40 60 80 100 coral abundance (%) Figure 7.1 Marginal benefit function for Montego Bay bioprospecting values Chapter 8 Interventions for Coral Reef Conservation- A Least Cost Model Jack Ruitenbeek HJ Ruitenbeek Resource Consulting Limited, Gabriola, BC, Canada Mark Ridgley Department of Geography, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI, USA Steve Dollar School of Ocean and Earth Science & Technology, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI, USA Richard M Huber Environmentally and Socially Sustainable Development Sector Management Unit, Latin American and Caribbean Region (LCSES), The World Bank, Washington, DC, USA This chapter provides a description of the methods and place the non-use benefits of the Montego Bay Marine results of studies undertaken using a least cost modeling Park area at almost US$20 million. Finally, Ruitenbeek framework for coral reefmanagement and protection. The and Cartier (1999; Chapter 7) estimate that the area's bio- primary site investigated was the Montego Bay Marine diversity resources have an expected NPV of US$70 mil- Park (Montego Bay, Jamaica) and the surrounding area lion to the pharmaceutical industry through marine with a view to identifying the least cost interventions for bioprospecting, although none of this value is currently coral reef management. captured under existing institutional regimes. The Montego Bay site was chosen for a number of While this paper focuses its empirical work on reasons. Foremost, recent political commitment in the Montego Bay, the models developed here are generic in region has resulted in the establishment of the Montego nature, are transferable to other sites, and are relevant to Bay Marine Park (the Park) as a protected area that will management problems associated with optimizing the be managed to promote sustainable reef-based tourism benefits achievable from coral reefs and their contiguous while still accommodating a local fishery (Chapter 2). coastal ecosystems. These ecosystems frequently act as Impacts on the Park are varied, ranging from over-fishing the backbone of local economies, and perform other use- to pollution impacts from sedimentation, ocean dumping ful functions such as filtering organic waste and mitigat- from cruise-ships, and influx of nutrients through ground ing coastal erosion. They yield medicines and tools for and surface water transport. From an ecological perspec- biomedical research, and serve as an irreplaceable source tive, the area has been studied over a long period of time of genetic biodiversity, educational and scientific knowl- as there is continued interest in the precise extent and edge, and aesthetic pleasure. Coastal ecosystems are frag- cause of reef degradation (Hughes 1994; Lapointe et al. ile, and are adversely affected by local sewage pollution, 1997; O'Callaghan 1992; Sullivan and Chiappone 1994; excessive tourism, and the accumulation of wastes gen- USAID 1996). erated by upland agriculture, logging, or industrial activi- The area is economically important, supporting a ties. Effective management of these resources requires recently established free trade zone. Valuation work by usable analytical tools that help understand the economic Gustavson (1998; Chapter 5) places tourism and recrea- and technical linkages between the ecosystems, on the tion values at a net present value (NPV) of US$315 mil- one hand, and human activities that affect them, on the lion and coastal protection at US$65 million. Artisanal other. Such tools are largely lacking at present. fisheries are valued at US$1.3 million. Contingent valu- Some coral reef areas in the tropics are under particu- ation work undertaken by Spash et al. (1998; Chapter 6) larly heavy pressure and are deteriorating (Chapter 1). 130 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling Reversing this progressive degradation, in both an eco- * Normalization of impacts. First, we ask whether it is nomic and ecological sense, requires successful manage- feasible to render the impacts of various economic ment. But apart from numerous practical issues, a key activities in terms of a single biophysical parameter. conceptual problem facing policy-makers is a lack of Conventional ecological approaches to this problem quantitative models and procedures designed to facilitate such as those employed by Tomascik and Sander (1985, qantitatehenive economic and ecological analysis, in- 1987) yield "dose-response" functions, but such func- am e e n aeo l , tions are not typically capable of covering the full range eluding identification, measurement and prediction of the of economic activities. effects of economic activity on coastal marine ecosys- Separability of benefits and costs. Second, we ask tems. In particular, the degradation of coral reefs has not whether it is economically meaningful to separate eco- been extensively analyzed in a framework amenable to nomic benefits from costs in analyzing management economic policy analysis. This has made it difficult to choices. Conventional economic approaches to this develop a priority ranking of policy and investment inter- problem rely on integrating benefits and costs (Cesar ventions in terms of their cost-effectiveness (i.e., there 1996; Dixon 1993) or, when benefits are not quantifi- are no means by which to formulate least cost plans to able, on ranking choices within a cost-effectiveness control continued deterioration). framework (Eskeland 1992; Ruitenbeek 1992). A cost-effectiveness analysis framework is therefore Identification of preferred options. Third, we ask being developed-the focal point being to render cost- whether one can identify any clear preferred manage- effectiveness in terms of coral reef management and pro- ment options for a specific site. As noted above, we tection opportunities. The potential scope of the overall have selected Montego Bay, Jamaica. general model includes all potential economic activities, To place this research in perspective, it is useful to interventions, and environmental impacts in the coastal illustrate the management problem in terms of how it is zone. The models developed to date, however, are some- often dealt with using conventional cost-effectiveness what more limited as they are intended to explore selected frameworks. Conceptually, a conventional analysis frame- methodological and practical issues in economic and eco- work would provide a ranking of the cost-effectiveness logical modeling of coral reefs. Specifically, three re- of various policy or project interventions. The outcome search problems are addressed simultaneously within the of any modeling effort would be a cost curve of the type current framework: shown in Figure 8.1. The step-wise cost curve represents cost or benefit C6 ($/unit) B 0 coral reef qualily (E) Figure 8.1. A conventional framework for optimization or cost-effectiveness analysis (Cl-measure of cost- effectiveness of intervention X in reducing effect or impact; X=policy intervention or investment; B=marginal environmental benefit curve associated with quality indicator E). Interventions for Coral Reef Conservation-A Least Cost Model 131 a series of interventions, each of which results in a reduc- because of the preliminary nature of cost estimates or tion of negative environmental impacts; these interven- ecological linkages developed in each prototype. tions will, over time, cause an increase in coral abundance. The following outline key lessons leamed from these The first few interventions are relatively inexpensive, and modeling exercises: may have no net costs associated with them if, for exam- . Treatment of economic policy. Model structures could ple, they concomitantly generate economic benefits not readily incorporate either investments or policy inter- associated with coral reef improvement. Subsequent in- ventions in their impact modeling. terventions become more expensive, on a cost per unit . Ecological complexity. Early model structures were basis. Figure 8.1 also shows a declining benefit curve, computationally limited in the number of input variables which illustrates what is typically called a "damage func- that could be managed. Also, models that incorporated tion." The damage function shows the marginal benefit feedback loops through recursiveness in the ecological associated with the reduced environmental damage (e.g., parameters (i.e., treating an output variable from one increased fishery productivity, higher tourism potential, period as an input variable to the next period) were or reduced shoreline erosion). Under this conventional often unstable and provided poor predictive capability. Final model structures were therefore selected that constru and costcurvesinomiscptimu ocuswhrhe bramew i en avoided recursiveness and introduced multiple stages efit and cost curves intersect. The framework iS often to improve computation efficiency. regarded as useful even if benefits are uncertain or not known. In such a case, it is often argued that the most Water quality transforms. Data deficiencies and local- cost-effective interventions should be undertaken first ized complexities make this element the "weak link" in most models. For Montego Bay, the complexity of and that, from a management perspective, one need only the mixing functions does not lend itself well to typical systematically move up the cost curve. linear transport models, and continued experimenta- This research, however, places in question this sim- tion with model structures persists through the final plified conventional approach. The cost curve of the type stages and is likely also to form an on-going research contemplated in Figure 8.1 depends on the separability and requirement. independence of individual interventions. In complex * Time delays. Early models specified different func- systems, such independence rarely exists. Cumulative or tional forms for translating current impacts to future synergistic impacts of pollutants on reef health, for exam- equilibrium reef quality, including the specific dynamic ple, must be reflected in management decisions. Reliance trajectory of changes in reef quality as it approached on a conventional cost-effectiveness model can, in such this equilibrium quality. Sensitivity tests undertaken at cases, lead to incorrect decisions. We demonstrate this the prototype development stages showed that ranking empirically through developing a generic complex sys- results were relatively insensitive to assumptions regard- tems model tadenorloing this trajectory, and that the major factor was simply tiems modelrthatndoe notvrelyon th deli assump the time delay required to reach equilibrium. Given tions inherent in the conventional model, and through the significant scientific uncertainty in addressing such applying this generic model to a practical case study site dynamic elements, final model development focused in Montego Bay, Jamaica. simply on the "long-term equilibrium" reef quality taken at some fixed future time period determined by expert Early Modeling Results p * Computation. All of the prototype model results pro- The research process permitted testing of a number of vide cost-effectiveness comparisons of single interven- methods for linking different ecological and economic tions from a common starting point using a simnulation models, and forexperimenting with different types of fuzzy environment. Experimentation with multiple interven- logic based predictive systems....(Table... Empirical work tions showed that these interventions, at times, provided logic basedpredictive systems (Table 8.1). Empmncal work ipoe otefcieesbcueo o-iert was ondcte at hre sies-te Mldies, uraao,and improved cost-effectiveness because of non-linearity was conducted at three sites-the Maldives, Curacao, and in the ecological response function. Final modeling Montego Bay, Jamaica. In all cases, predictive simula- structures therefore concentrated on the adoption of an tion models were created using fuzzy logic systems to optimization framework that could reflect such non- analyze a series of potential interventions. The primary linearities. purpose of these prototype models was to explore differ- . Interface. The educational value of the early models ent model forms and test the sensitivity of results to such was demonstrated through incorporating all of the com- forms. While in all cases the models generated empirical putational routines into a user-friendly interface for results relating to specific indicators of cost-effectiveness, the Maldives and Curacao. The interface provides a the results themselves were often not regarded as reliable simulation environment that permits decision-makers 132 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling Table 8.1. Basic model structure and early empirical results for three study sites. Montego Bay, Cura,ao, North and Montego Bay, Jamaica south coast South Male Jamaica Location (prototype) Atoll, Maldives (final) Year completed 1995 1996 1996 1998 Economic Sub-Model Number of economic sectors 8 7 4 8 Number of investment interventions 8 4 11 7 Number of policy interventions 2 0 2 1 Non-linear (scale-dependent) 0 0 cost estimating functions Ecological Impact (Fuzzy) Model Number of levels 1 1 1 3 Number of inputs 7 7 6 9 Recursiveness in model 0 Output - coral abundance 0 0 0 0 Output - coral rugosity 0 Output - recruitment 0 Output - reef fish 0 0 Water Quality Model Single part linear 0 0 Single part non-linear 0 0 Zonal differentiation 0 0 Fuzzy logic estimator 0 Integrated Model Structure Non-linear time delay 0 Fixed delay 0 0 0 v Time horizon (yrs) 85 10 10 25 and 55 Simulation model - single intervention 0 0 0 0 Simulation model - multiple intervention 0 0 0 Optimization 0 User-Friendly Interface 0 0 0 Empirical Findings Low cost intervention outfall protection mining bans Moderate cost intervention sewage treatment outfall outfall High cost intervention reforestation sewage treatment sewage treatment Interventions for Coral Reef Conservation-A Least Cost Model 133 to ask "What if?" types of questions in reef manage- But this conventional approach is flawed in many real ment decisions. life circumstances. The flaw relates to the non-linear Empirical results. Empirical results relating to proto- nature of the response function, and the effects of cumu- type development (for any of the three sites) were used lative interventions. It is readily shown, for example, that primarily as a pedagogical tool in explaining how eco- such an approach can lead to non-optimal results if the nomic activities and interventions interact with reef response function is unresponsive to small changes in quality. The results themselves were not regarded as inputs (such as sediment or pollution loads) but very re- adequately robust to provide strong policy guidance. inputs (u as sedin orputIn lods butavere Emirca reut fo th fia.oeiga otg a sponsive to large changes in inputs. In such circumstances, Empircal results for the final modeling at Montego Bay th fis ineveto wilieial aevr o ot are, however, regarded as suitably robust to provide the first itervention will ievitably have very low cost- some limited policy guidance. effectiveness (as it will generate zero response) while sub- From the prototype development stage, two critical sequent interventions will have higher cost-effectiveness. research issues were identified for fu,rther model develop- The appropriate analytical framework is, therefore, not to ment at the Montego Bay study site: (i) developing a more look at the problem from the point of view of individual computationally efficient ecological predictive model; and, interventions, but from the point of view of a group of (ii) developing an "optimization shell" for the core model. interventions having a cumulative effect. Two other issues-water quality transform models and Generalized Optimization Problem improvement of the "time delay" components of the eco- logical response to system stresses-remain important The overall optimization problem involves selecting an research issues, but could not be pursued in the Montego optimal level of coral reef quality (Q0) such that net ben- Bay site model because of data and other constraints. efits are maximized. To derive this result, we generate a cost function C{Q} and a benefit function B{Q}. The focus of this work is on the cost function. The benefit Methodology function is treated in Ruitenbeek and Cartier (1999; see Chapter 9). General Statement of Problem and Model Structure In the generalized conceptual cost model, we consider The model developed in the final stages of this research the following: consists of two distinct sub-models: (i) a biophysical or Q = scalar indicator of coral reef quality (% coral abun- ecological reef impact model relying on fuzzy logic; and, dance); (ii) an economic model describing current and future eco- F = vector of biophysical factors that influence coral reef nomic activities, policy interventions and pollution loads quality; in Montego Bay (Figure 8.2). The sub-models are linked F. level of factorj such thatj = 1, 2, 3,..., J, and run side by side either in a simulation mode or an ' . v optimizing mode to predict future reef quality, economic activity levels, and economic policies. Sk level of economic intervention type k such that k = 1, The objective of the model is to achieve a target coral 2,3,..., K; reef quality (Q) by identifying an optimal set of interven- Ik = unit level of economic intervention type k; tions (SO) such that the cost (C) of implementing this in- nk = number of units of intervention type k such that SI= tervention set is minimized. The nature of the analytical nk*Ik and nk = 0; construct is such that this is equivalent to maximizing coral n = {n2, n, ..., n} ; reef quality subject to a budget constraint. As noted above, conventional approaches to this type ofproblem have used k Sk and, a cost curve fonnulation, in which the cost of each poten- r = discount rate. tial intervention is analyzed along with its resultant im- The following describes the full least cost optimiza- pact on reef quality. A measure of cost-effectiveness (in tion problem. For a given target Q, minimize Cby choos- terms of $/% of coral cover improvement, for example) ing n subject to is then derived. An optimal set of interventions then C = C, + C2 +...+Ck involves selecting first those interventions with a low cost- Q{F} 2 Q effectiveness measure ($/% improvement), and subse- F. = F {S} quently moving into higher measures. A supply curve is ' F then derived similar to that shown in Figure 8.1. Ck = Ck {nk ,r} 134 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling Interventions (change) Activities Impacts (change) input prices agro-processing oil pollution * output prices light manufacturing metal loads * education and technology municipal (domestic) sediment loads physical investment hotel and service nutrient loads other (zoning) forestry and agriculture physical damage offshore transport fisheries ECONOMIC SUB-MODEL change in net costs Cost Effectiveness ECOLOGICAL SUB-MODEL change in coral abundance change 4 ~~~~~~in reef fish: Reef Community Pollutants (change) live coral cover Fuzzy Set Model sediments algae cover nutrients grazing pressure physical damage Environment relief fishing pressure Figure 8.2. Generalized fuzzy logic based cost-effectiveness model. The model structure shows two components: an economic sub-model incorporating pollution impacts arising from economic activities, and an ecological dose-response sub-model that (potentially) incorporates recur- sive feedback loops. A cost-effectiveness measure is expressed in terms of a change in net costs divided by a change in reef quality. Interventionsfor Coral Reef Conservation-A Least Cost Model 135 The cost function, which can subsequently be used in Data deficiencies, coupled with marked limitations an overall benefit-cost optimization, is then simply C= on resources for reef research and management in the C{Q} for all technically viable levels of Q. Through simu- developing tropics, led to the adoption of a fuzzy logic lation or iteration a cost curve envelope can be derived (or fuzzy sets, fuzzy systems) approach. With the theory with each point on this curve representing a vector of in- first introduced in the 1 960s (Zadeh 1965), fuzzy logic terventions. has proven adept at describing and helping to manage a variety of complex non-linear systems, initially those deal- Biophysical Model Structure ing primarily with electromechanical control of industrial The purpose of the biophysical model is to describe the and manufacturing processes (Kosko 1993; McNeill and relationship Q = Q{F} in the above optimization prob- Freiberger 1993), but more recently geophysical, eco- lem. The general biophysical model is based on a ge- logical and economic systems (Ayyub and McCuen 1987; neric coral reef system model (Figure 8.3). It relies ex- Bardossy and Duckstein 1995; Kainuma et al. 1991; tensively on fuzzy logic based systems in describing a Meesters et al. 1998; Munda 1995). Fuzzy methods pos- complex dose-response function. sess a number of features that make them particularly In general, a reef impact model should exhibit at least applicable to the prediction and management of these two key features. First, it should represent existing knowl- latter systems. First, they enable rigorous, quantitative edge of reef ecology at a detail and within the bounds of system modeling even though the variables and their accuracy sufficient for project evaluation. A particular interrelationships are described initially (i.e., as inputs to requirement to achieve this aim is the model's ability to the model) in qualitative terms. This is especially appro- show the effects of non-linear relationships among pol- priate when human knowledge about the behavior of lutants, coral reefs, and the reefs' larger marine environ- systems, such as reef ecosystems, is approximate and ment. Second, the model should be operable and provide imprecise at best, rendering adequate parameterization useful results with the information available at or for any all but impossible. The ability to accommodate quali- location of potential application. This is a crucial require- tative data conceming reef systems means that more ment since quantitative data on many oceanographic and information about them, from more and different kinds biotic variables are frequently sparse, inaccurate, patchy, of sources, is likely to be available. Since fuzzy logic of short duration, or otherwise deficient for conventional allows systems to be described as sets of "if-then" (lin- analytical (i.e., exhibiting closed-form solutions) or nu- guistically specified rules relating inputs to outputs), it merical modeling. On the other hand, considerable quali- thus offers great potential to utilize human judgment and tative data are available for almost all reefs of the world. experiential knowledge, rather than being dependent upon Much of these data are in the form of expert knowledge mathematized theory or quantitative databases. or human judgment, derived either from formal educa- A brief, qualitative reprise of the bare essentials of tion or from first-hand experience. In poor tropical coun- fuzzy rule-based modeling is provided in Box 8.1. More tries, the latter may well be the dominant form of infor- detail is given in Ridgley et al. (1995) and Ridgley and mation available, in terms both of quality and abundance Dollar (1996), as well as in standard references (Bar- (Johannes 1981). In some locations, it may be the only dossy and Duckstein 1995; Kosko 1992; von Altrock form available. 1995). These two desiderata correspond to two defining char- Figure 8.3 depicts the variables and structure of the acteristics of the model: (i) the recognition of the role fuzzy model. Variables, variable names, and fuzzy set played by the physico-chemical environment in influenc- ranges are defined in Table 8.2. The model specifies 13 ing the interaction between inputs (such as pollutants) and variables explicitly. Three fuzzy sets are used for each reef biota and other processes; and, (ii) the use of a fuzzy input variable, while output variables are described with logic approach to represent cause-effect relations. up to five fuzzy sets. This allows more differentiation of How material inputs affect a reef is a function not only outputs without an increase in the number of rules. The of the magnitude and concentration of the inputs and the organization into levels slows the proliferation of rules condition of the reef at the time, but also of oceanographic with the addition of variables. With three fuzzy sets per variables such as those characterizing the hydrodynam- input, and a deterministic water quality transform fune- ics (e.g., mixing and residence time). These determine tion, not more than 747 rules would ever be needed to the concentration and ultimate exposure of the input to completely saturate the knowledge base. If this system the reef, and the supply of chemical reactants, upon which were to have been modeled as a single level system, over the uptake and utilization of nutrients by biota depends. 177,000 rules would have been required. 136 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling N loads Ploads efetv sediment loads nutrient load water quality _ _ _ ___ transform grazing I effective nutrient pressure concentration algae sedment suspended deposition sediment fishing ressure relief physical damage live coral cover Figure 8.3. Coral reef impact model structure. The generic final ecological sub-model consists of four stages: (i) nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) loads are converted to effective nutrient load in a fuzzy logic transform; (ii) sediments and nutrients are converted to nutrient concentrations, sediment deposition and suspended sediment at the coral reef site using a water quality transform function that can consist either of a deterministic linear transform, a deterministic non-linear transform, or a fuzzy logic based transform; (iii) nutrient concentration and grazing pressure are converted to algae cover in a fuzzy logic transform; and, (iv) six primary determining variables are con- verted into live coral cover using a ftuzzy logic transform. Where a deterministic water quality transform is used, and where each input takes on three potential values (low, medium, and high), the system requires a maximum rule base of 747 rules (32 + 32 + 36). Interventions for Coral Reef Conservation-A Least Cost Model 137 Box 8.1. An informal introduction to fuzzy modeling. Fuzzy rule-based models relate a set of inputs to a set of outputs. The inputs in this case refer to nutrient and sediment influx, physical oceanographic characteristics ("mitigators"), and biotic state variables. Outputs also refer to biotic state variables, although not necessarily the same as the biotic inputs. Once inputs and outputs have been identified, the first step is to define the range of possible values (measurements) for each one and to divide that range into a set of overlapping intervals. Each interval defines a fuzzy set, referring to a relative magnitude of that input (e.g., high, medium, or low); fuzzy sets are thus sometimes referred to simply as "adjectives". Such intervals are based on expert judgment. Fuzzy sets are so named because of the ambiguity associated with the membership of certain values in those sets. Such ambiguity is characteristic of the linguistic terms we use to label the sets (e.g., high, medium, and low). A particular quantitative value (e.g., 25%) could be associated with more than one fuzzy set (e.g., both low and medium). How plausible it is that the value in question belongs to a particular fuzzy set is termed its degree of membership, represented by a number between 0 and 1.0, inclusive. Most quantitative values are associated with more than one fuzzy set, usually to different degrees. A value's membership in a given fuzzy set is determined by its membership function. Membership functions are usually represented as geometric figures-triangles or trapezoids being the two most common-whose "tops" correspond to the full membership of 1.0, bases (the intervals defining the fuzzy sets) to a value of 0.0, and sides to intermediate values. Thus, we can conceive of each membership function as having a certain area associated with it, a view that is helpful in understanding the operation of scaling discussed below. Given a set of inputs and outputs, their fuzzy sets, and corresponding membership functions, input- output rules are specified in terms of the fuzzy sets. The set of such rules, called the knowledge domain, defines a mathematical relation and constitutes a fuzzy system, also called a fuzzy associated memory (Kosko 1993). For example, a hypothetical two input, one output rule could be the following: "If nitrogen influx is high and residence time is low, then coral abundance is high." Each input in a rule is called an antecedent, and each output a consequent. With the knowledge base established, one now needs a way to transform a given set of quantitative inputs, with their corresponding membership degrees, into quantitative outputs. Three steps are followed to do this, often referred to as scaling, combination, and defuzzification: 1. Scaling. Scaling is the process of determining the degree to which each rule applies, called the rule's activation level. If a rule has a single antecedent, the activation level is the value's membership in that fuzzy set. If the rule has two or more antecedents with different membership degrees, fuzzy logic opera- tors are used to determine the most appropriate activation level. If the antecedents are connected with the "and" conjunction (as in the example of nitrogen and recruitment above), then the minimum member- ship degree is used; if "or" is used, then it is the maximum membership. However it is obtained, the activation level is then used to scale the output fuzzy set by reducing its area and shape accordingly. The amount of reduction and the shape modification varies with the scaling method used. 2. Combination. In this step, all scaled consequents from active rules (i.e., whose activation levels are positive) are combined via superposition-that is, superimposing the scaled fuzzy outputs on top of each other. The composite fuzzy output is then determined through max combination (the point-wise maxi- mum membership degree of the superimposed consequents) or via sum combination (the point-wise sum of the membership degrees of the overlapping consequents). The latter is the newer of the two approaches, equivalent to a weighted average of the active rules. 3. Defuzzification. The fuzzy composite consequent is transformed to a single quantitative ("crisp") output value, either that corresponding to the centroid of the consequent set, or that having the maximum degree of membership. 138 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling Table 8.2. Input and output variables and their associated fuizzy sets, showing typical values. Square brackets indicate range. Asterisk (*) signifies an output variable. Where no values are shown for a specific fuzzy set, that set is not used. All input variables are defined by three fuzzy sets, while output variables are defined by four or five fuzzy sets. Variable Low Medium-low Medium Medium-high High N loads (mmol rn2 day') 2 15 80 [O to 6] [5 to 50] [40 to 200] P loads (mmol m2 day-') 0.5 4 7 [O to 1] [0.8 to 6] [5 to 10] Effective nutrient load* 0.25 0.75 1.5 4 8 [O to 0.5] [0.4 to 1] [0.8 to 3] [2.5 to 6] [5 to 10] Effective nutrient concentration (mM) 0.02 0.1 0.3 [0 to 0.05] [0.04 to 0.15] [0.14 to 0.5] Grazing pressure (kg ha-' day') 10 40 110 [O to 30] [25 to 100] [80 to 150] Algae (%)* 5 25 40 60 [0 to 20] [15 to 50] [25 to 60] [40 to 100] Sediment loads (g m-2 day-') 50 150 600 [0 to 100] [80 to 500] [450 to 800] Suspended sediment (g m-3) 0.6 2.5 5 [O to 2.5] [1.5 to 5] [4 to 10] Sediment deposition (g m-2 day') 2 20 60 [O to 10] [8 to 50] [45 to 80] Physical damage (index) 0.5 1 3 [O to 1] [0.5 to 2.5] [2 to 4] Algae (%) 5 25 60 [0 to 20] [15 to 50] [40 to 100] Fishing pressure (kg ha-l day') 2 6 20 [O to 5] [4 to 15] [12 to 25] Relief (rugosity index) 1.2 2 4 [l to 1.5] [1.25 to 3] [2.5 to 5] Live coral (% on available substrate)* 8 18 35 50 70 [0 to 15] [10 to 25] [20 to 50] [40 to 65] [60 to 100] Interventions for Coral Reef Conservation-A Least Cost Model 139 The system of fuzzy logic rules, in effect, represents a and release of nutrients through biochemical processes multi-dimensional dose-response function. We can rep- also tend towards the same ratio. Thus, the nutrient in resent a "slice" of this function by generating a surface shorter supply to make up the appropriate tissue ratio will representing one output variable as a function of two generally be the limiting nutrient to plant growth. As a input variables, with all other variables held constant result, if only one nutrient (N or P) is elevated while the (Figure 8.4). other remains at low concentrations, the effect in terms of plant growth is likely to be substantially less than if both Effective Nutrient Concentrations nutrients increase correspondingly. With this concept of It is generally considered that nutrients (primarily nitro- uptake ratios as a basis, the input of "effective nutrient gen and phosphorus) are one of the most important po- loading" is determined by the ratio of N loading to P tential anthropogenic impacts to coral reefs (Chapter 1). loading. The rule base states that when loading of N and While nutrients may or may not have a direct impact on P is unequal, the effective loading remains equivalent to coral growth and physiology, depending on the concen- the nutrient in shortest supply. There is, however, a ca- tration, the major effect of increased nutrients on corals is veat to this rule. Coral reefs are capable of fixing atmos- likely a decrease in their competitive advantage over pheric nitrogen to form organic nitrogen. There is no benthic algae, which can exhibit increased growth rates equivalent biochemical process for phosphorus. Thus, if with increased nutrient concentrations. However, we rec- the ratio N:P of the water flowing over a reef is low rela- ognize that the "effective nutrient concentration" that can tive to the uptake ratio of plants on the reef, the capability affect algae abundance is not necessarily the same as exists for nitrogen fixation to raise the potential uptake of nutrient loading, when loading is distinguished between phosphorus. On the other hand, if phosphorus is the nu- N loading and P loading. The reasoning for this differ- trient in low relative concentration, there is no potential entiation is based on the unifying concept in biological to increase uptake potential through atmospheric supply. oceanography that plants (whether phytoplankton or As a result, we consider phosphorus the limiting nutrient benthic plants) have a definite atomic ratio of C:N:P. In in our rule base, and the input variable of "effective nutri- phytoplankton, the ratio is commonly expressed as the ent concentration" as being equivalent to the "effective "Redfield ratio" with a numerical value of 106:16:1. In phosphorus concentration." benthic marine plants, the ratio is variable, but has an estimated median value of 550:30:1 (Atkinson and Smith Water Quality Transform Function 1983). A corollary to this standard compositional ratio This model converts sediment and effective nutrient of marine plants is the observation that the net uptake loadings at specified locations into effective nutrient 100.0 /j _ 100 l5lFigure 8.4. A typical fuzzy-logic generated Live_cord La. iC 2 lao dose response surface. This example shows live coral cover as a function of suspended O0 / ' /Susp_Sed sediment and algae cover, with all other variables fixed. 1o .0 140 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling concentration, depth of sediment deposition, and concen- portant to understand that while these two input variables tration of suspended sediment over the reef. The model can co-vary (e.g., high sediment deposition in areas of uses a simple fuzzy rule-based water quality transform high sediment suspension), it is not unusual to find reef that approximates a conventional (non-fuzzy) water qual- areas where the input variables are very dissimilar, gen- ity model described in Rijsberman and Westmacott (1996; erally being a function of water motion. For example, in see Chapter 3). areas with normal high water motion from wave forces, suspended sediments can be high with virtually no depo- sition. On the other hand, in areas with low water motion The reasoning behind inclusion of this subsystem is, sim- and limited flushing as a result of physiographic struc- ply, that the primary effect of elevated nutrient levels on ture, sediment input may be low, resulting in relatively coral is the enhanced growth of algae which, ceterispari- low suspended sediment; however, because there are in- bus, may compete with coral for hard substratum or per- sufficient physical forces to remove sediment, deposition haps even smother existing live coral. However, grazing may be high. This is a typical situation in lagoonal areas, by fish, sea urchins, and other fauna will help check the which often have soft sediment bottoms with little coral proliferation of algae. Thus, a quite parsimonious func- development. tion for determining algae levels is derived from nine rules describing the interplay between the effective nutrient Fishing Pressure concentration and grazing pressure. While corals themselves are sometimes the target species (mainly for curio collectors), fishing pressure is gener- ally considered to have an important indirect impact on Distinction is made between the input variables sediment coral reefs. Removing a large percentage of the grazers deposition and suspended sediments because these factors or piscivores on any reef may cause changes in the bal- can be considered to affect coral community structure dif- ance between corals and algae, which can result in phase ferently. While suspended sediment is often considered a shifts in reef structure. While fishing pressure is consid- detriment to coral growth and reproduction, it has been ered an important variable, it is inherently difficult to documented that many reef areas contain a high percent- measure and quantify for input into the model. We have age cover of coral in areas where suspended sediments is chosen to employ the units of measurement presented by also normally considered high. Species composition in McClanahan (1995) in his coral reef ecosystem-fishery such areas may be substantially different than in areas model, which is aimed at determining the impacts of fish- with low suspended sediment primarily as a result of the ing intensity and catch selection on reef structure and proc- physiological capability of some species to efficiently eject esses. Based on field data, McClanahan (1995) estimates sediment from living polyps. As a result, reef composi- that a person can catch 25kg ha-' day' of fish at maxi- tion may vary dramatically between areas of differing mum fish biomass. This clearly depends on the techniques levels of sediment suspension, but one reef assemblage used and should be seen as a relative measure. We use cannot necessarily be considered inferior to the other. this number as a maximum value and scale downward to Coral cover then, in contrast to coral species mix, may create membership classes. It should be acknowledged not vary significantly with suspended sediment. that this variable is likely to be the most difficult to quan- On the other hand, sediment deposition appears to be tify in any applied situation, but it nevertheless is a nec- universally more detrimental to living coral reef struc- essary input for an effective model. tures. Coral planulae (larvae) cannot settle in areas where soft sediments continually cover the bottom, and may not Economic Model Structure survive in areas where sediment deposition is episodic but a regular occurrence. In areas of highly variable wa- Accounting for intermediate variables in the fuzzy model, ter motion, sediment deposition may occur occasionally the reduced form of the output and inputs to the integrated during periods of high input and low water motion, with complex system function are the following. Parameters subsequent clearing of the deposited material when water that are listed with a asterisk (*) are regarded as fixed for motion increases. While adult colonies of some species any given site and are not normally affected by the im- may tolerate coverage by settled sediments for short peri- pacts arising from economic interventions. ods of time (hours to days), coverage for longer periods Q = Q{FJ,. . ., F9}; coral abundance on available substrate; is lethal to virtually all species. As a result, in our model, F, = suspended sediment; sediment deposition has a considerably stronger adverse F2 = sediment deposition; effect upon reefs than suspended sediment. It is also im- F3 = physical damage; Interventions for Coral Reef Conservation-A Least Cost Model 141 1, = fishing pressure; At this stage, the model can be used in two different F5 = relief*; modes: simulation or optimization. In simulation mode, F6 = grazing pressure*; the model determines the consequences of a given inter- F7 = initial effective nutrient concentration*; vention set. An intervention set is defined by the vector F8 = nitrogen loads; and, n, and each nk could take on a user-specified value from F9 = phosphorus loads. zero to some upper bound which is dictated by feasibility Various computer modeling and simulation platforms constraints (for example, it will not permit replanting more were tested to find an efficient system that could accom- than 100% of the watershed). In optimization mode, the modate the biophysical parameters as well as the economic only input is the target reef quality (Q) and the model will optimization procedures. Final modeling was conducted generate the least cost combination given constraints on using MATLAB® 5.2 software relying on the specialized each n. The output is a vector n. Fuzzy Logic Toolbox and the Optimization Toolbox (Mathworks 1998). In modeling the relationships, fuzzy Modeling Scenarios and Interventions rule-based systems were initially defined for each system The model forecasts economic activity, pollution and and were subsequently modified to improve computational impact loads, and resultant coral quality over a 55 year efficiency. The modifications included use of Sugeno period. The underlying forecast of economic activity is transforms instead of Mamdami transforms and the speci- divided into the following sectors: fication of a fuzzy inference system for the water quality Municipal sector (domestic). Migration into the area is transform. All optimization routines relied on a sequen- regarded as a significant element in future economic tial quadratic programming method, which is the most development of the region, and demands on municipal efficient algorithm for optimizing over non-linear surfaces waste treatment services will escalate. Wastes from (Floudas and Pardolos 1992; Gill et al. 1981; Han 1977; the domestic sector thus are a potentially significant Powell 1978). Identification of global optima was as- contributor to overall pollutant loading. sured through specification of different starting points to . Agribusiness sector. This sector is selected because it ensure convergence. is one of the major growth nodes in the area and has The economic model structure consists primarily of high pollution potential. Although agriculture itself is two components. One component involves the definition not an important contributor to regional product, value of a "unit intervention set," including the costs of each of added processing may become increasingly significant the unit interventions. The second component incorpo- in the free trade zone and elsewhere. rates an economic activity "baseline" that represents a * Light manufacturing sector. This sector is highlighted base case level of activity and impact in the absence of because of its high pollution potential for metals, sedi- any interventions. The baseline level of activity corre- ments, nutrients and toxic compounds. Also, growth sponds to n k = 0 for all k = I to K. Cost information for may be expected to increase given the desire for indus- k ~~~~~~~~~~~~trial expansion in and around the free trade zone. the various interventions was based on location specific data for Montego Bay (GMRC 1996). In general, the * Heavy manufacturing and construction sector. This simplified form of the cost function takes the form sector also has high pollution potential, although its pollutants have traditionally been mainly sediment loads C, = 0 if n, = 0 and solid wastes leading to potential physical damages nk C2/ on the reef. C- if ~k >0 Hotel and tourist service sector. This sector is an im- where Cl is the capital cost of a unit intervention and C2 portant current component of the local economy ad will continue to be a major player in the future. As is the annual operating cost of a unit intervention of type such, interventions relating to this sector are likely to k. Each of these at a "unit scale" will have some impact have a significant impact on water demands and on on economic activities and on the inputs to the biophysi- overall pollution loads. cal model (i.e., on the vector F). * Forestry and agriculture sectors. These sectors are The economic baseline component essentially involves included for completeness, and because of their high projecting all economic activities under the assumption potential pollution loads. In the Montego Bay area, of no interventions. A resultant baseline vector FO is gen- however, their relative contributions to economic out- erated, with a corresponding level of coral quality that can put are small. be calculated as QO = Q{FO} through evaluation using . Offshore transport sector. Offshore shipping contrib- the fuzzy model. utes to recurrent oil spills in the area. It is expected 142 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling that these recurrent impacts, as well as the risk of an oil pipe reduction in sediment and nutrients from the light spill, will escalate with increased processing in the free industry in this zone. Costs of such a facility are esti- trade zone and elsewhere. mated to approach US$1 million, requiring an addi- In any particular simulation or optimization, the base- tional US$1 million annually for operation. line forecast is chosen as a status quo case. This describes 4. Large scale centralized treatment facility. This sce- conditions in the absence of any active interventions. We nario involves installation of a common waste treat- use as a reference case a rapid growth scenario developed ment facility capable of processing about one-quarter on the basis of consultations with and documents provided of the sewage and waste in the Montego Bay area. bthGranCorporation Installation of such a facility would reduce nutrient by the Greater Montego Bay Redevelopment rporapid and sediment loads associated with domestic, com- (GMRC 1996). The forecasts represent relatively rapid mercial and hotel waste streams; some modest decrease growth over a 20 year period, tapering off to lower levels in physical impacts on the reef would also be evident. over the remainder of the 55 year period. Specifically, In theory, up to four of these might be built over the population is expected to grow by about 2.5% annually long-term in Montego Bay; construction of additional for 20 years, and 1% annually in the longer term. Growth units is, however, constrained by difficulties associ- in real economic output in the manufacturing and pro- ated with connecting all areas, and with overcoming cessing sectors is expected to range between 3% and 5% the common use of disposal wells. In the optimiza- in the near to medium-term, and 1% to 1.5% in the long- tion modeling, therefore, the model limits this to only term. Tourism and hotel industry growth is expected to one such facility being constructed at a capital cost of about US$50 million and annual operational costs of average about 3% annually forears apering oft about US$5 million. Smaller scaled down versions of 1% annually afterwards. Forestry and agriculture are this could also be constructed. expected to realize only modest growth in the near-term (less than 1% annually) and no real growth over the gricult extenon. thisier reflecs the establishment of technology transfer programs along long-term as land is converted to satisfy municipal re- the lines of internationally accepted waste reduction quirements. programs. Such programs are aimed at reducing pol- The model incorporates eight active intervention types lutant loads (primarily from nutrients) through provid- for Montego Bay. The interventions, and their approxi- ing relatively low cost (often self-financing) technolo- mate costs, are: gies to the agricultural and agro-processing sectors. 1. Sediment trap. This involves placement of a sediment The intervention covers up to 10% of such enterprises trap close to the Montego River outlet before it emp- in the area, and will cost US$1.2 million to implement ties into Montego Bay. The trap is a physical barrier with an annual cost of about US$120,000. that slows the water flow and prevents most of the 6. Outfall and pump. This is a stand-alone intervention sediments from entering Montego Bay; it also removes that would involve a sewage outfall and pump station some solid litter that might cause physical damage to to take the sediment beyond the reef edge (approxi- the reefs. It does not reduce nutrient loads to any sig- mately 5km). The unit would cost about US$1.8 mil- nificant degree. Effective operation of the trap requires lion, along with US$72,000 annually, and would regular (weekly) maintenance and removal of sedi- mainly reduce sediment loads and physical impacts ments for disposal in clean fill sites. The capital cost of wastes on the reef. Smaller versions at lower cost of such a trap is estimated to be about US$6 million, and efficiency are available. with annual operational costs of about US$330,000. 7. Household solid waste collection. This scheme in- Smaller traps, at lower cost and efficiency, could be volves establishing a small-scale waste collection sys- installed at various upstream locations. tem to connect about 30,000 people in squatter settle- 2. Planting of trees in the upper watershed. This scenario ments or low income areas to common waste handling reflects reforestation of the most degraded watershed facilities. Although the capital costs for this type of areas around Montego Bay and involves planting about an arrangement are low (US$72,000) the operating 150,000 acres of trees, at a one time capital cost of costs are relatively high (US$36,000 annually). The almost US$28 million (based on average reforestation effect this has on pollution loads will be to reduce sedi- costs for Jamaica). This intervention would lead to a ment and nutrient loads from the household sector. substantial (almost 100%) reduction of sediment and 8. Hotel tax. This intervention simulates the impact of a nitrogen loads from this area. 25% land tax on the existing hotel and service sector, 3. Aeration of waste. This involves installation of a com- and is meant to illustrate the impacts of a policy inter- mon waste treatment aeration system in the Montego vention as opposed to some of the investment inter- Bay free trade zone, capable of treating 416 tons per ventions considered elsewhere. While this tax is not day of waste. It would result in a substantial end-of- directly attacking any specific pollutant, the increase Interventions for Coral Reef Conservation-A Least Cost Model 143 in hotel operation costs is expected to dampen invest- also demonstrates that the greatest deterioration would ment and decrease pollution loads. The administra- arise from changes in pollution loading (N, P and sedi- tive costs of such an intervention are estimated to be ments) while reef quality is less responsive to changes in about US$60,000 annually. fishing pressure. The economnic impacts of single technical interventions Results are shown in Table 8.4. The results also show that, in the "high growth" reference forecast, a long-term equilibrium While the model provides a dynamic forecasting envi- level of about 29% coral abundance would be expected. ronment, it was found that decision-makers find it most This decline, relative to the "no growth" case of 43% coral useful if reef quality can be expressed in terms of a single abundance, is attributable entirely to the increased im- index relating to a single future reference year (Werners pacts from economic activity in the absence ofmitigating 1998). In all modeling summaries and optimizations, interventions. The results also indicate the potential im- therefore, a "25 year equilibrium" level of coral abun- pact of single interventions. No single intervention is dance was selected as a benchmark. Precise interpreta- capable of completely compensating for the negative im- tion of this figure is somewhat complex, but it essentially pacts on coral abundance, although, if all interventions describes the long-term level of coral abundance on avail- were executed, a level of about 49% coral abundance could able substrate arising from the next 25 years of activities be achieved. This, in fact, represents a 20.23% improve- and interventions. It therefore consolidates initial condi- ment on what would otherwise happen, and it would re- tions (taken as 1998) with future economic development sult in a present value cost in excess of US$150 million. activities (and their associated negative impacts) and any The results in Table 8.4 show the impact of single in- mitigative interventions (and their positive impacts). terventions relative to a "do nothing" scenario. Because The basic technical sensitivity of the reef impact of the non-linearity of the coral reef response, it is not model, calibrated for Montego Bay conditions, is shown possible simply to add up these interventions to arrive at in Table 8.3. Under static conditions of no growth and a cumulative impact. The model, in optimization mode, no mitigative interventions, with all stresses essentially permits setting of a target level of coral abundance (or remaining at current levels, a long term equilibrium level change in coral abundance over a reference case); results of 43% coral abundance would be expected. Table 8.3 for such optimizations are summarized in Table 8.5. For Table 8.3. Changes in Montego Bay (Jamaica) coral reef quality arising from changes in key inputs. Coral abundance levels show long-term equilibrium arising from changes in physical impacts of human-induced activities on the reef ecosystem. Change in Scenario Coral cover (%) coral cover (°/) Base case conditions - no economic growth 42.73 Doubling of: Pollution loads (N, P and sediment) 21.83 -20.90 Physical damage 25.49 -17.24 Fishing pressure 39.80 -2.93 All inputs 6.82 -35.91 Halving of: Pollution loads (N, P and sediment) 56.38 +13.65 Physical damage 51.33 +8.66 Fishing pressure 44.00 +1.27 All inputs 76.18 +33.45 144 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling Table 8.4. Changes in Montego Bay (Jamaica) coral reef quality arising from single interventions. Coral abundance levels show 25 year equilibrium, and resultant total cost and average costs. Change in Total cost Average costs Intervention Coral cover (%) coral cover (lo) (million US$) (million US$/Y) Base case conditions 28.94 0.00 - high economic growth Sediment trap 32.13 3.20 9.30 2.91 Planting of trees in upper watershed 30.57 1.63 27.90 17.12 Aeration of waste 30.57 1.63 11.84 7.25 Large scale centralized treatment facility 34.18 5.24 98.40 18.78 Agricultural extension 29.00 0.07 2.40 36.81 Outfall and pump 34.33 5.39 2.52 0.47 Household solid waste collection 30.73 1.80 0.43 0.24 Hotel tax 28.97 0.03 0.60 17.30 All of the above 49.17 20.23 153.40 7.58 any given target level, the optimization provides the least response surface. Such localized plateaus in the ecologi- cost combination of interventions, permitting variable in- cal model are relatively common and are surpassed only tensities from zero to unity. A zero indicates that the inter- through more investment through additional interventions; vention is not undertaken, while any positive value shows the first intervention in such cases will always have a high partial or full implementation of a given intervention. cost (in terms of $/% improvement) compared to subse- quent investments which move conditions beyond such a plateau. Discussion and Conclusion Second, the fallacy of separating benefits from costs, and of using a continuous ranking of individual interven- Modeling results provide important insights into meth- tions, is shown in the optimization results in Table 8.5. odological issues as well as practical policy issues. A In a conventional separable model with monotonically major methodological success of the exercise is that it increasing marginal costs (such as that in Figure 8.1), an was found to be feasible to model a large variety of eco- intervention that was undertaken at a low target level of nomic and ecological parameters in a predictive system coral improvement would also always be undertaken at a that permits comparison of policies. The fuzzy logic pro- high target level of coral improvement. But this is clearly cedures, coupled with economic optimization tools, can not the case here. Reforestation, for example, is part of take advantage of relatively sparse information sets. the optimal intervention set at coral quality improvement The non-linearity of underlying complex systems also targets of 14% and 20%, but it is not part of the interven- places in question many conventional methods of cost- tion set at intermediate targets of 15% or 16%. Similarly, effectiveness analysis that assume separability of benefits the intensity of the agricultural extension and hotel tax and costs, and separability of the impacts of individual interventions do not increase monotonically. This is re- interventions. Inspection of the results illustrates a num- flected also in the marginal cost curve inherent in Table ber of these points. 8.5; while generally it is increasing, there are some local- First, the non-linearity of the coral quality response ized decreases (Figure 8.5). The most significant im- surfaces to individual interventions is shown in Table 8.4. plication this has for policy-makers is that one can not Both the reforestation alternative and the waste aeration simply pursue low cost interventions in the absence of alternative achieve precisely the same level of coral abun- some coral quality target, which will in turn be related to dance because of a localized "plateau" in the coral quality the economic benefits. Interventions for Coral Reef Conservation-A Least Cost Model 145 Table 8.5. Optimization results for Montego Bay (Jamaica), showing levels of individual interventions required to achieve target coral reef quality, and resultant total cost and marginal costs. Inter- ventions are as follows: Il=sediment trap; 12=planting oftrees in upper watershed; I3=aeration of waste; 14=large scale centralized treatment facility; 15=agricultural extension; 16=outfall and pump; 17=household solid waste collection; and, 18=hotel tax. Change Total Marginal in coral Intervention cost costs cover (%/) II 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 (million US$) (million US$/%) 0.25 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.13 0 0.06 0.24 0.50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.26 0 0.11 0.20 0.75 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.39 0 0.17 0.24 1.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.58 0 0.25 0.32 1.25 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.71 0 0.31 0.24 1.50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.85 0 0.37 0.24 1.75 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.98 0 0.42 0.20 2.00 0 0 0 0 0 0.04 1 0 0.53 0.44 2.25 0 0 0 0 0 0.08 1 0 0.64 0.44 2.50 0 0 0 0 0 0.13 1 0 0.76 0.48 2.75 0 0 0 0 0 0.18 1 0 0.87 0.44 3.00 0 0 0 0 0 0.22 1 0 0.99 0.48 3.25 0 0 0 0 0 0.27 1 0 1.10 0.44 3.50 0 0 0 0 0 0.31 1 0 1.22 0.48 3.75 0 0 0 0 0 0.36 1 0 1.33 0.44 4.00 0 0 0 0 0 0.40 1 0 1.45 0.48 4.25 0 0 0 0 0 0.45 1 0 1.56 0.44 4.50 0 0 0 0 0 0.49 1 0 1.68 0.48 4.75 0 0 0 0 0 0.54 1 0 1.79 0.44 5.00 0 0 0 0 0 0.58 1 0 1.90 0.44 5.25 0 0 0 0 0 0.63 1 0 2.02 0.48 5.50 0 0 0 0 0 0.67 1 0 2.13 0.44 5.75 0 0 0 0 0 0.72 1 0 2.24 0.44 6.00 0 0 0 0 0 0.76 1 0 2.34 0.40 6.25 0 0 0 0 0 0.80 1 0 2.45 0.44 6.50 0 0 0 0 0 0.84 1 0 2.56 0.44 6.75 0 0 0 0 0 0.89 1 0 2.67 0.44 7.00 0 0 0 0 0 0.93 1 0 2.78 0.44 7.25 0 0 0 0 0 0.97 1 0 2.88 0.40 7.50 0.03 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 3.19 1.24 7.75 0.10 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 3.85 2.64 8.00 0.17 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 4.52 2.68 8.25 0.24 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 5.18 2.64 8.50 0.31 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 5.83 2.60 8.75 0.38 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 6.49 2.64 9.00 0.45 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 7.15 2.64 9.25 0.52 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 7.80 2.60 9.50 0.59 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 8.45 2.60 9.75 0.66 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 9.10 2.60 146 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling Table 8.5. continued Change Total Marginal in coral Intervention cost costs cover (°o) I1 12 I3 I4 I5 I6 17 18 (million US$) (million US$/°/) 10.00 0.73 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 9.75 2.60 10.25 0.80 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 10.39 2.56 10.50 0.87 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 11.04 2.60 10.75 0.94 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 11.68 2.56 11.00 1 0 0.01 0 0 1 1 0 12.41 2.92 11.25 1 0 0.14 0 0 1 1 0 13.89 5.92 11.50 1 0 0.26 0 0 1 1 0 15.35 5.84 11.75 1 0 0.38 0 0 1 1 0 16.78 5.72 12.00 1 0 0.50 0 0 1 1 0 18.21 5.72 12.25 1 0 0.62 0 0 1 1 0 19.63 5.68 12.50 1 0 0.74 0 0 1 1 0 21.06 5.72 12.75 1 0 0.86 0 0 1 1 0 22.47 5.64 13.00 1 0 0.98 0 0 1 1 0 23.89 5.68 13.25 1 0.09 1 0 0 1 1 1 27.20 13.24 13.50 1 0.22 1 0 0 1 1 1 30.88 14.72 13.75 1 0.35 1 0 0 1 1 1 34.55 14.68 14.00 1 0.34 1 0.04 0 1 1 1 38.27 14.88 14.25 1 0.28 1 0.10 0 1 1 0.20 42.09 15.28 14.50 1 0 1 0.24 0 1 1 0.36 47.67 22.32 14.75 1 0.63 1 0.10 0 1 1 0.57 51.51 15.36 15.00 1 0 1 0.32 0 1 1 1 55.88 17.48 15.25 1 0 1 0.36 0 1 1 1 60.01 16.52 15.50 1 0 1 0.40 0 1 1 1 64.13 16.48 15.75 1 0 1 0.45 0 1 1 0.18 68.32 16.76 16.00 1 0 1 0.48 0 1 1 1 72.35 16.12 16.25 1 0 1 0.53 0 1 1 1 76.43 16.32 16.50 1 0 1 0.57 0 1 1 1 80.82 17.56 16.75 1 0 1 0.62 0 1 1 0.35 85.25 17.72 17.00 0.99 0 1 0.64 0.22 1 1 0.48 87.43 8.72 17.25 1 0.32 1 0.64 0 1 1 0.04 95.89 33.84 17.50 1 0 1 0.77 0 1 1 1 100.49 18.40 17.75 1 0 1 0.81 0 1 1 1 104.68 16.76 18.00 1 0 1 0.86 0 1 1 1 108.85 16.68 18.25 1 0 1 0.90 0 1 1 1 112.99 16.56 18.50 1 0 1 0.94 0 1 1 1 117.10 16.44 18.75 1 0 1 0.98 0 1 1 1 121.20 16.40 19.00 1 0.10 1 1 0 1 1 1 125.78 18.32 19.25 1 0.27 1 1 0 1 1 1 130.64 19.44 19.50 1 0.44 1 1 0 1 1 1 135.39 19.00 19.75 1 0.61 1 1 0 1 1 1 140.06 18.68 20.00 1 0.83 1 1 0 1 1 1 146.31 25.00 20.25 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 153.48 28.68 Interventions for Coral Reef Conservation-A Least Cost Model 147 marginal costs (million US$/% coral cover) 40 35 30 25 20 1 5 1 0 5 0 5 1 0 15 20 improvement in coral abundance (%) Figure 8.5. Montego Bay (Jamaica) intervention costs. Relationship shows marginal cost of the optimal intervention set for any given target improvement in coral reef quality. The fallacy of the conventional ranking procedures is In conclusion, we note that-as with all such modeling also shown by inspection of the average costs of indi- exercises-any such prescriptions should be comple- vidual interventions (Table 8.4). Such average costs are mented by good judgment on the part of policy-makers. often used as a means for ranking alternatives, and are Manipulation of the models can provide insights into the usually calculated based on "initial" conditions. Reliance generally desirability and impacts of various interventions, on such an indicator would lead one to conclude, for ex- but such models never tell the whole story. In Montego ample, that reforestation was more economical than a Bay, for example, the model still treats pollutant trans- hotel tax; but the optimization results show that at higher port and mixing with a broad brush that neglects seasonal coral quality targets (between 15% and 18% improve- variations and potential localized impacts on, for exam- ment), a hotel tax is the most economical option. Again, ple, important diving sites. Such considerations are be- some knowledge of the economic benefits is necessary yond the capacity of this analysis framework, although before a target can be achieved in association with the they may be of key importance to a dive industry that available cost intervention, generates considerable local benefits through tourism. Apart from the above methodological issues, the model Also, the current models do not adequately capture results do provide some practical insights to policy de- many of the dynamic elements of coral reef responses to sign decisions in Montego Bay. First, the results illus- human, and other, stresses. While time delays in reef trate that some interventions are common to all optimal response were identified as an important parameter, limi- policy sets for intermediate levels of coral improvement. tations in coral reef science and data availability prevent Specifically, household solid waste collection, installation a thorough treatmnent of this subject. Consequently, it is of an outfall, and use of a sediment trap on the Montego extraordinarily difficult to reconcile or benchmark mod- River are relatively cost-effective interventions; use of els such as this (which predict long-term equilibrium con- these three interventions would impose present value costs ditions) against real field data (which measure current of about US$12 million and achieve a coral improvement reef conditions, often under disequilibrium conditions). in excess of 10%. By contrast, achieving the maximum Also, these models do not yet incorporate the potential potential improvement of 20% would entail present value impacts of non-localized stresses on reef quality that have costs of US$153 million. (presumably) resulted in such massive recent die backs 148 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling and "bleaching" events. Again, current measurements of reef health, which reflect such stresses in a disequilib- rium state, would be difficult to reconcile against model predictions. Consequently, this again calls for prudence in using and interpreting the results of these models. In our view, the model is most useful for providing guidance in the changes in reef quality induced by localized human impacts; the model is less robust in its predictive ability for absolute levels of reef quality in an environment characterized by both human-induced local stresses and other extemal stresses. Nonetheless, the messages of the model results are clear-pay greater attention to ecosys- tem responses and pay less attention to conventional con- structs of cost-effectiveness that assume linear behavior. Complex systems such as coral reefs are not likely to lend themselves to simple management solutions. Modeling tools must strive to capture some of this complexity. Chapter 9 Integration of the Models for Decision Support in Jamaica Jack Ruitenbeek H.J Ruitenbeek Resource Consulting Limited, Gabriola, BC, Canada To consolidate the findings of the research, this brief chap- bioprospecting. In effect, this places a fixed price for ter provides a synthesis of the various benefit valuations these other uses and functions, and is likely to over-esti- for Montego Bay, Jamaica (Chapters 5, 6, and 7). In addi- mate price in some instances, while potentially under- tion, we include these within the context of a key policy estimating in others. For example, a degraded reef will question for Montego Bay-how much coral reef con- still provide some limited erosion protection for some servation is economically optimal and how can we best time; thus, an average price assuming a linear relation- achieve that level? To answer that question, we rely on ship will overstate this marginal benefit. For tourism, selected results from the complementary cost effective- however, small changes in quality may have dispropor- ness studies (Chapter 8) against which we juxtapose the tionately larger impacts on arrivals if there is a percep- coral reef management benefits identified through the tion that the reefs are substantially degraded (to a degree, valuation work. Specifically, this chapter: this occurred about ten years ago in Montego Bay after * Identifies the relative contributions of direct use values some highly publicized but overstated reports of massive against other values within the context of a synthesized degradation decreased diver visits). In the case of the benefit function; non-use values, the contingent valuation method (CVM) * Identifies appropriate policy and institutional reforms survey explicitly included a degradation scenario; hence, the end-points were well established (representing a 25% for improving the capture of resource values associ- grdtO)bthenueofheucinbtwntes ated with coral reefs in Montego Bay based on an degradation) but the nature of the function between these optimizing framework; and, end-points is somewhat uncertain. Given these assumptions, it is clear that the total ben- * Assesses implications for future applied research. efit attributable to the reefs in their current condition is approximately US$470 million and that every 1% change in abundance is likely to generate a marginal benefit of approximate US$10 million. Most of the value, and As a final step, one can aggregate the economic values change in value, is attributable to the tourism resource. As~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~~~~~~~~~~osa raeto anda non-us benfit are nextgat ine termsvaue. into a total value and a net marginal benefit (price) func- Coastal protechon and non-Use benefits are next m terms tion for the Montego Bay reefs (Table 9.1). The use of of planning importance. It is notable that the use ben- such values requires making a number of further assurnp- efits related to tourism are at least an order of magnitude tions regarding the sensitivity of the individual values to greater than the non-use benefits that visitors express. reef quality. As seen with the bioprospecting values, the The relative impacts of fisheries and bioprospecting on total value of the reef was relatively high (US$70 million) planning prices are negligible, especially if one considers but changes in reef quality within the planning range (ap- only the capturable values to Jamaica. proximately 20% to 50% coral abundance) did not have a large effect on this value. Synthesizing Benefits and Costs for a As no specific linkage models are available for the Global Optimum other values estimated, we make a number of simplifying assumptions for purposes of demonstration. In general, We juxtapose these marginal benefit calculations against as a reference case, we assume a linear relationship be- a marginal cost function for the Montego Bay reefs, as tween reef quality and value for all values other than generated by a fuzzy logic based ecological-economic 150 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling Table 9.1 Summary of valuation results for Montego Bay coral reefs Benefit Pricea (NPTK million US$) (million US$/00) (million US$/ha) Tourism/recreation 315.00 7.33 17.18 Artisanal fishery 1.31 0.03 0.07 Coastal protection 65.00 1.51 3.54 Local non-use 6.00 0.24 0.56 Visitor non-use 13.60 0.54 1.28 Subtotal 400.91 9.65 22.63 Pharmaceutical bioprospecting (global) 70.09 0.23 0.53 Total (Global) 471.00 9.88 23.16 Pharmaceutical bioprospecting (Jamaica) 7.01 0.02 0.05 Total (Jamaica) 407.92 9.67 22.68 aMarginal benefits shown at typical current reef conditions. model (Chapter 8). This related research on cost effec- It is notable that the inclusion or exclusion of pharma- tiveness modeling of interventions suggested that up to a ceutical bioprospecting values from this analysis does not 20% increase in coral abundance may be achieved using have an effect on this planning outcome. Even if a strict appropriate policy measures having a present value cost linear relationship were applied and 100% of the biopros- of US$153 million. The cost curve envelope generated pecting value were capturable by Jamaica, the resultant by that research showed marginal costs rising from un- price (US$70 million/43% coral, or US$1.6 million/%) der US$1 million/% of coral abundance to US$29 mil- would not be adequate to justify improvements beyond lion/% of coral abundance. Global optimization using those stated above. the combined cost and benefit functions suggested an "optimal" improvement of coral reef abundance of 13% requiring net expenditures of US$27 million, primarily Implications involving installation of a sediment trap, waste aeration, installation of a sewage outfall, implementation of im- While any single valuation will generally be a useful policy proved household solid waste collection, and imple- input, it should normally be regarded as just one among mentation of economic incentives to improve waste man- many potential inputs to such a policy making exercise. agement by the hotel industry. The marginal benefits It is no accident that wider reliance is being made on multi- and marginal cost curves for this solution are shown in criteria analyses, with valuation as one component of that Figure 9.1. analysis. Sensitivity tests suggest that net economic benefits In terms of bioprospecting valuation, we would sub- would need to increase by US$275 million or decrease mit that the overall focus on valuation has perhaps dis- by US$300 million for the coral quality target to vary from tracted analysts from more pressing institutional and this by more than 2% (i.e., fall below 11% or above 15%). socio-economic concems. Valuation results consistently To justify the full expenditure (i.e., achieving a 20% coral demonstrate that institutional arrangements between de- reef improvement) would require additional benefits of veloping countries and the rest of the world are critical US$660 million. components of capturing value and of mitigating risks Integration of the Models for Decision Support in Jamaica 151 associated with uncertain economic and ecosystem con- volves the promotion of practical local management ditions. Yet local institutional capacity remains weak in regimes that involve affected stakeholders in the re- Jamaica, as it does in most developing countries. Also, source base. both the economic theory of resource utilization and the . Greater emphasis at the national level on institutional social realities arising out of extensive stakeholder par- strengthening to participate in bioprospecting valuie ticipation consistently demonstrate that we must move capture opportunities. Analytical work should focus rapidly towards decentralized and communal management on practical mechanisms and should directly address of coral reefresources. Failure to do so will likely rapidly risk management concems. dissipate, or totally eliminate, any notional values we . Greater emphasis on ecosystem analysis focusing on might attach to these resources. To address these con- functional linkages and relationships. The economic cems, we call for the following shift in emphasis in ap- discipline has, in many ways, "gotten ahead of itself' plied research: in valuation. Large uncertainties in ecosystem behavior * Less emphasis on stand-alone cost effectiveness analy- continue to undermine attempts at rational economic ses. The joint projects.demonteconomic analysis and, in many cases, it is probably a waste of ses. The joint projects demonstrate that, If effortl to codc'uhaaye.T oedge,ti efficiency is a goal, we must pay attention to both costs effort to conduct such analyses. To some degree, thos an beeft whe deln.ihcmlxnnlna simply requires that planners become accustomed to andsbenefits wche dcaling withs. complexnon-linear the uncertainty, but accelerated work in basic ecologi- systems such as coral reefs. cal analysis (e.g., thorough inventory work) for critical * Greater emphasis at the local level on socio-economic ecosystems would be money well spent. and management dimensions of direct uses. This in- marginal costs and benefits (million US$/% coral abundance) 40 35 .. .. ... . . .. ... . .. .. .. ..-, . .. '.._, 30 "'"" ~ ~ ~ ~ .. .... "'' ."" . .. ....... t ' ' -" ............. ' ' ' ' ; , . ... . . .... 25 30 : -- : - ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~.. . -. ..-... .... . .: . .. .-;.... ;.. 20 .. .. , . ... . .. .. .. . . . .. . .. .. .. .. ... 15 . - -: - . ; .... . . ' ' ? . . -,,, ,, ,, . ~ ~~~~~. . ...... : ... ... .. . ... .. 10 ................. . ...... 5~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~.. .. . : . - -? -. . ... -.... ,,. - .. 5 29.19 32.19 35.19 38.19 41.19 44.19 47.19 50.19 coral abundance (%) Figure 9.1 Montego Bay intervention marginal benefit and cost curves for the global optimization solution Chapter 10 Development of the User Interface- Coral-Curasao, Coral-Maldives, and COCOMO Christiane Kloditz, Frank Rijsberman, Saskia Werners and Susie Westnacott Resource Analysis, Delfft, The Netherlands As described in previous chapters, the World Bank has interface of the models is based primarily on graphic in- been involved in several projects that aim to improve the formation to provide users with a quick overview with protection and management of coral reef coastal systems. minimal use of text. Results from each of the three case study sites (Montego Bay, Jamaica; Curaqao, the Netherlands Antilles; North Framework for Analysis and South Male, the Republic of the Maldives) has led to the development of a user-friendly computer-based appli- Integrated coastal management is a complex issue cross- cation that incorporates a quantitative ecological economic ing many disciplines and involving many stakeholders. model designed to assist in the formnulation, evaluation There is often no clear-cut answer to the problems faced and ranking of various cost-effective coastal zone man- in managing such areas. Traditional sectoral approaches agementpractises. The three integrated coastal zone man- have failed to tackle the interrelated issues posed by user agement decision support models are: conflicts and interests within the coastal zone. This tends * Coral-Cura9ao, a decision support system for coral reef to be because problems are far from structured and objec- management in Curacao; tives are unknown or unclear. * Coral-Maldives, a coral reef management model for the Solutions for such complicated problems can be found Republic of the Maldives; and, through a decision-making and management process that * COCOMO, a model for management of COral reef implies learning from other actors. Such an approach COasts in MOntego Bay, Jamaica. allows various stakeholders and decision-makers to ex- The models were developed with local input through plore and understand each other, the problem area and workshops and meetings and have been tested in further the different perspectives and interests that exist within workshops. They have been used successfully as training it. Possible actions are found by learning and developing and education aids and it is hoped that they will be devel- solutions, normally working in a cyclical, iterative way. oped further so as to be used later as actual planning tools. When problem solving is approached as a learning proc- An accompanying CD-ROM contains the three deci- ess, the thinking processes need to be formally structured. sion support models that have been developed. The CD- The methodology is supplied by a framework and has been ROM demonstrates decision support modeling for inte- developed as a step-wise approach (Figure 10.1). grated coral reef management through realistic examples One of the components of a decision support system, rather than abstract theory. The three decision support which the models represent, is the user interface. The systems aim to create awareness for the integration of dif- design of this will be instrumental in guiding the user ferent coastal issues, as well as the formulation of inte- through the decision. A step-wise approach is used, lead- grated management plans. The CD-ROM can be used by ing the user logically from problem definition to the evalu- stakeholders of the three study areas, as well as to illus- ation of alternatives. This step-wise approach is based on trate application of the methodology to other coastal zones. a generic framework for analysis that has been developed The models are accessible for policy-makers and special- over the last 10 to 15 years (Bower et al. 1994; Resource ists from various disciplines, including those with mini- Analysis and Delft Hydraulics 1993; Rijsberman and mal or no computer experience or scientific background, Koudstaal 1989; Westmnacott 1995). Practical applica- as well as a large percentage of the general public. The tions of this approach to integrated coastal management 154 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling issues are given by, for instance, Baarse and Rijsberman Coral-Curagao (1986, 1987) and Ridgley and Rijsbennan (1992). Fol- . ' . . . . ~~~~~~~Coral-Curacao (see Chapter 3 and CD-ROM) Is a corn- lowing this framework, the main steps in an integrated puterized planning tool that is able to show the impacts coastal management analysis within Coral-Curacao, of coastal developments and environmental protection Coral-Maldives and COCOMO are as follows: measures on the economy, environmental and social situ- * Problem identification; ation in Cura9ao. Development of the model started with * Definition of objectives and criteria as yardsticks to a preliminary visit to Curacao in April 1995 (Rijsberman measure fulfillment of objectives; et al. 1995a). A subsequent visit involved collection of * Definition of scenarios for uncertain, exogenous devel- data and information for the development of the model opments; (Meesters 1995; Westmacott et al. 1995). The first ver- * Definition of management strategies in terms of their sion of the model was completed at the end of 1996 and component measures; is described in Chapter 3 (see also Rijsberman and West- * Analysis of the impacts of the strategies in terms of the macott 1996). criteria; and, The initial project aimed to develop a method to eval- * Evaluation and selection of the most desirable strategy. uate the cost-effectiveness of alternative coral reef man- agement strategies. In order to achieve this, three sub- models were developed that linked together forming a Modeling for Coral Reef Management single integrated model. The sub-models were an eco- nomic activity model, a water quality model and a reef The cost-effectiveness methodology utilized in the mod- health response model. As the models were developed, eling was initially developed for Montego Bay, Jamaica, additional components were added to expand the focus to and has been tested through two case studies: i) Curacao, the Netherlands Antilles, where the methodology has been STEP 1 tested and validated in a relatively data-rich environment E and a coral reef system with a high level of anthropogenic s influence (Chapter 3); and ii) the Republic of the Mal- _ dives, where the coral reefs are in many areas still rela- c STEP 2: tively undisturbed, but where development is rapidly o Setting up analysis conditions changing these coral reef systems (Chapter 4). o Identifying data and tools In order to cope with the difficulties of assessing the ._ Defining oblectves and crteria benefits of improved coastal zone management, the E modeling research presented on the CD-ROM has been o STEP 3: limited to assessing the costs of coastal zone manage- Formulating possible ment, using a framework that focuses on four main steps: strategies and scenarios i) the specification of economic sector interventions; ii) the modeling of the changes of these interventions on STEP 4: production and consumption; iii) the quantification of . _ Analysing the impacts of strategies E the physical response of these in terms of the wastes and X physical damage generated; and, iv) the modeling of the impact of the wastes and physical damage on reef health. STEP 5: The final cost of each of the interventions is then com- _ Comparing and ranking the alternatives puted, taking into account potential negative costs (e.g., .o from production changes). This enables interventions to E * be formulated in such a way as to incur the minimum . STEP 6: costs while retaining a certain quality of reef. Further G o Presenting the results to research was carried out for the Jamaica and Curacao case the decision maker studies where the cost-effectiveness analysis was expanded into a full cost-benefit analysis with quantification of the Figure 10.1. A step-wise framework describing a value of benefits due to changes in reef health (see also decision-making and coral reef Chapter 9). management process. Development of the User Interface-Coral-Cura9Vao, Coral-Maldives, and COCOMO 155 cover a broad range of indicators, rather than simply cost- through discussions with various government agencies effectiveness. The aim was to achieve a user-friendly involved in coastal zone management within the Maldives. management model where users would input their ideas The first version of the model was completed in 1997 and and plans for integrated coastal management for Curacao is described in Chapter 4 (see also Westmacott and and could analyze the impacts of the different plans in Rijsberman 1997). economic and environmental terms. Once developed, the Coral-Curacao decision support model was presented to COCOMO the different user groups in Curagao, who were trained in its use. ~~~~~~~~~~COCOMO (see CD-ROM) illustrates the relation between human activities and coastal problems in Montego Bay Coral-Maldives through a graphic user-friendly interface. It attempts to provide the information required to prioritize actions in The Coral-Maldives decision support system (see Chap- order to preserve and improve the coastal environment. ter 4 and CD-ROM) is structured in such a way that dif- COCOMO is developed for policy-makers, specialists and ferent users are able to explore a series of different coastal anyone interested in coastal issues in Montego Bay. It zone management options under varying assumptions for provides information through maps, pictures, model cal- exogenous variables. The analysis allows the users to culations and texts. The model consists of three main parts: focus on the most cost-effective options for coral reef . Background information on the objectives and coastal management and protection for the various economic de- activities in Montego Bay; velopment options. The impacts can be seen in terms of . Information on the coral reef coast, including descrip- economic, social and environmental indicators that are tions of the coral reefs and marine life, different coastal selected at the outset of the analysis by the user. During problems, and the values associated with the reefs; and, the analysis, the user compares two situations: i) the ref- - Calculation of the effects of different actions. erence situation; and, ii) changes in the reference situa- tion as a result of the management options selected. In For a number of actions that will protect the reefs, the adtion to the s t ndagt orthe usercaexplor model estimates future coral reef health and the costs of moreidetailedtinformationrelatingrto the usercnom exporee the actions. The model also predicts the least expensive health and coastal erosion. The final step of the analysis set of actions to realize a specified coral reef health and shows an coretcardofall the selected i o In addi- helps to evaluate the main causes of reef deterioration. shows a score card of all the selected indicators. In addi- tion, the user can use the cost-effectiveness analysis to rank the coastal zone management strategies. It is hoped that Coral-Curacao, Coral-Maldives, and The structure of the Coral-Maldives decision support COCOMO will make significant contributions to the de- system was developed and the data for the model col- velopment of effective integrated coastal management pro- lected during fieldwork in November 1995 (Westmacott grams and policies. The reader is encouraged to explore 1996). The economic development and environmental the use of these models through the CD-ROM included protection options were also selected during this period with this publication. -v~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~IO III: TiHE CONTEXT FOR POLICY APPLICATIONS AND FUTURE DIRECTIONS Chapter 11 The Social Context for Local Management in Jamaica Leah Bunce International Program Office, National Ocean Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring, MD, USA Kent Gustavson Gustavson Ecological Resource Consulting, Gabriola, BC, Canada Whereas previous chapters have focused on economic the importance of socio-economic assessments for reef analyses of coral reef management, this chapter extends management. these analyses to consider the socio-cultural implications This chapter: i) presents the methodology used to ex- of reef management by demonstrating the importance, as amine the socio-economic background of the three user well as means, of incorporating social and economic in- groups; ii) briefly describes the socio-economic back- formation into coral reef management. This chapter ground of these groups; iii) presents the socio-economic presents a case study analysis in which the socio-economic factors that have implications for the development of Park context of the three primary user groups in Montego Bay policy and management strategies; iv) discusses guiding Marine Park, Jamaica-fishers, hoteliers and water sports principles for future Park management; and, v) presents operators-were addressed (see Chapter 2 for a descrip- an analytical framework which can be used to examine tion of the Montego Bay Marine Park). The primary tasks the socio-economic implications of future management of the project were two-fold: first, to conduct a socio- and policy scenarios. economic assessment of these user groups; and second, to demonstrate the utility of this methodology by consid- Socio-Economics in Coral Reef Management ering the management implications of these findings for future Park management. As such, this study serves as a As government and non-government organization re- site-specific test case of the socio-economic data collec- sources have become increasingly focused on reef man- tion methodology and the utility of the data for making agement issues over the past decade, reef management management decisions. practitioners and theorists have become increasingly This project was designed to assist the larger World aware that to successfully manage these fragile resources Bank project (see other contributions in this publica- sustainably, it is not only important to consider the bio- tion) in identifying an economically efficient outcome physical conditions that determine system structure and that is also socially viable. In addition to contributing to processes, but also to understand the social and economic the development of a comprehensive cost-benefit meth- conditions, contexts, and motivations that are associated odology for coral reefs, this study was also designed to with their use (Orbach and Johnson 1989; Renard 1991; meet the needs of the Montego Bay Marine Park (the White 1989; White et al. 1994). As early as 1969, the Park) in documenting the current extent and charac- importance of socio-economic information was stressed teristics of Park use and the socio-economic background by the US National Environmental Protection Act, which of the users in order to determine their concems and states there is a need to "...assess or estimate, in advance, interests, how they would be affected by management the social consequences that are likely to follow from spe- altematives, and opportunities for collaboration. The cific policy actions... and specific government actions..." Park has used this information to reshape Park policies (ICGPSIA 1994, p.108). The importance of socio-eco- and develop and implement effective management strat- nomic conditions was demonstrated by an examination egies. In a more general context, this study illustrates of the socio-cultural compatibility of 68 World Bank 160 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling projects (Cernea 1985, p.323). The 36 World Bank methodologies for conducting socio-economic assess- projects found to be socio-culturally compatible with the ments?" Perhaps of greater importance, "How can these project population had an economic rate of return more assessments be utilized to receive the maximum benefit than twice as high as the remaining 32 projects. As Cemea for management programs, particularly to facilitate the concluded, incorporation of users into the management process?" Not only does a failure to consider the so- Due to the relative infancy of research on the socio-eco- cial and cultural context of a project invite nomic context of reef management, criteria specific to inappropriate design at best (and user hos- evaluating activities affecting reef resources have yet to tility at worst), but ... it usually leads to be comprehensively developed. To date, studies have projects that are ultimately ineffective, focused on issue-specific research and on the develop- wanted neither by their supposed benefici- ment of standard indicators for assessing the socio-cul- aries nor by the investingpublic agencies. tural basis of reef uses (e.g., Pollnac 1998). Economic (Cernea 1985, p.323). assessments have only recently begun to examine the As a result of this growing recognition of the impor- extent of the benefits directly or indirectly associated tant role of user group demographics, perceptions, cul- with reef use (e.g., Cesar 1998; Dahuri 1996; Dixon tural values, and resource use patterns in determining 1992; Pendleton 1995; Tomascik 1993; Weber and effective management strategies (Renard 1991; White Saunders 1996). 1989; White et al. 1994), socio-economic assessments There is a lack of research concerning rapid quanti- have become an increasingly important component of tative and qualitative techniques for assessing both the management decisions (Cemea 1985). social and economic bases of reef use. Yet, methodolo- The coastal environment poses particular challenges gies for conducting socio-economic assessments can be to conducting socio-economic assessments and examin- adapted from a range of established anthropological, ing the implications of management strategies due to the sociological, and economic approaches, including: clas- diverse activities and user groups, the typically sical social, anthropological and economic approaches sectoralized government management regimes, and the in which outside researchers use structured and often nature of these traditionally open access resources. It is quantitative, resource- and time-intensive approaches, these characteristics that make understanding the user such as questionnaires and secondary data sources, to groups particularly critical. With the long history of open solicit information (Bernard 1989; Marshall and Rossman access evident in most coastal environments, users are 1993; Patton 1990); rapid rural appraisal (RRA) tech- inevitably thrown into conflict with competing coastal re- niques, in which outsiders elicit information from local source users as scarcity becomes an issue. Underlying people using rapid, semi-structured, field-based ap- the superficial issue of conflicts over the resource itself proaches, such as semi-structured interviews, focus are the often conflicting social, cultural and economic groups, diagrams, direct observation and ranking (Cham- backgrounds of the user groups. bers 1994; Pido et al. 1996; Schonhuth and Kievelitz Unlike biophysical assessments of coral reefs, for 1994; Townsley 1993); and, participatory rural appraisal which established and standardized methodologies have (PRA) techniques, in which outsiders serve as facilita- evolved, means for assessing the socio-economic context tors for local people to analyze their living conditions, of reef management are only beginning to be explored. share outcomes and plan activities using a range of com- The Caribbean Coastal Marine Productivity Program munity-oriented participatory programs, such as transect (CARICOMP), for example, has focused on assessing the walks, matrix scoring, and wealth ranking (Balarin 1998; biophysical conditions of reefs and associated habitats Chambers 1994; Schonhuth and Kievelitz 1994). These for over 6 years (Ogden et al. 1997). It is only within this approaches are gradually, but increasingly, being adapted year that the network has begun to consider incorporat- to the marine environment (Pido and Chua 1992; Pido et ing socio-economic factors into their assessments (J. al. 1996), particularly marine fishing communities and Woodley, University of the West Indies at Mona, pers. coastal communities (e.g., Balarin 1998; Gorman 1995; comm. 1999). At the same time, the Global Coral Reef Pido 1995; Pollnac et al. 1997; Townsley 1993). Adap- Monitoring Network is developing a manual for conduct- tation of these methodologies to assess coral reef user ing socio-economic assessments (C. Wilkinson, Global groups is critical so that managers can better understand Coral Reef Monitoring Network, pers. comm. 1999). the persons who are being affected by management deci- The question, then, confronting many reef managers sions and can best adapt management decisions for the is, "What are the most appropriate, effective and efficient benefit of these individuals. The Social Contextfor Local Management in Jamaica 161 Methodology Means of Data Collection Data Topics The data were collected through five principal means: document and database analysis, interviews, focus groups, This study involved a comprehensive investigation of the telephone survey, and participant observation. Triangu- socio-economic background of the three primary reefuser lation among these sources of information provided an groups of the Montego Bay Marine Park-fishers, water important means to validate the findings (Buzzard 1990; sports operators, and hoteliers. The field portion of the Marshall and Rossman 1989; Patton 1990). study was conducted during January and February, 1998, in Montego Bay, Jamaica. Documents and Database Analysis The socio-economic assessment of Montego Bay An initial review of existing documents and databases Marine Park examined the current status of social and established an information baseline from which the sub- economic conditions, historic shifts in those conditions, sequent data collection could expand. The following types and the extent to which they are anticipated to change. of documents were examined: government department Data on the following socio-economic variables were records and reports, census and survey statistics, non- collected with respect to each user group: government organization and academic reports, Montego * Characteristics of user group activities. This included Bay Marine Park documents, and consultants' reports. data on the types of activities (i.e., equipment used, This information was primarily used to elicit quantitative methods employed), the nature of activities (i.e., what's data on the user demographics, employment and incomes, involved, size and level of activity, structure of activ- and to further substantiate the perspectives revealed ity, type of product or output), and the location of ac- through the interviews. tivities, including spatial allocation among users. * Characteristics of the user groups. This included de- Interviews mographics (i.e., nationality, age, gender, level of edu- Interviews were the principal means of data collection cation, ethnicity, economic status, area of residence), and they provided the core material for developing an cultural value of the activity to the users and to the com- understanding of the different user groups. Fifty-two munity, employment and incomes, socio-econornic links wunith, othernacti and reltios, betenoand witinks personal interviews were conducted with elite interview- user groups. f ain ces-persons familiar with, and knowledgeable about, one of the three user groups (Table 11. 1; Dexter 1970). • Users'perceptions of the reef management. This - Interviewees were selected to provide knowledge about cluded perceptions of reef conditions and impacts, con- tervier gre but to pridupledge abort cerns for Park management, actions proposed by the their user group, but to not unnecessarily duplicate infor- users to address concerns, current and past involvement mation. Each of the interviewees was selected because of the user group in management, and their potential she or he represents the interests of the group (e.g., the role in the future management of the Park. president of a fishers' cooperative), is an experienced par- Table 11.1. Number of interviewees according to user group and sub-group representation. Total number of interviewees User group associated with each user group Sub-groups associated with each user group Fishers 35 River Bay landing beach White House landing beach key informants Water sports operators 11 party cruises glass-bottom boats dive operations small watercraft all-inclusive hotel water sports Hoteliers 6 all-inclusive hotels small hotels key informants 162 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling ticipant (e.g., a hotelier with more than thirty years expe- were conducted in person and, with the exception of two rience in the Montego Bay hotel industry), or is a central group fisher interviews, were one on one. Before each member of the group (e.g., the owner of a dive and cata- interview began, the interviewee was given a written de- maran business and well-known community member). scription of the research. Any questions regarding the In those cases where an individual who met one of the study were then answered, and the importance and above criteria was not readily apparent, snowball sam- confidentiality of responses to interview questions ex- pling was conducted in which the other interviewees were plained. Detailed notes were taken during all interviews, asked for recommendations of individuals who might fit which were transcribed as soon after the interviews as the sampling requirements (Oppenheim 1992). possible in order to note further details, observations and In order to gain in-depth infonnation on topics relevant reflections. to the study and tailored to the knowledge and concems Although interviews were the basis of the informa- of each interviewee, semi-structured interviews were con- tion collection, a significant amount of infornation came ducted using flexible, open-ended interview guides (Patton from less formal contacts. Throughout the study period, 1990). A base interview guide was developed and then informal conversations were held with government offi- tailored for each interview (Table 11.2). cials, users and other individuals. These contacts were Most of the interviews were conducted in the inter- particularly useful for discovering other sources, contacts, viewee's home or place of business, but some were con- or issues to explore further. ducted spontaneously in informal settings. All interviews Table 11.2. Essential elements of the base interview guide. Characteristics of * Current activity (range of operations; equipment used; size and frequency of activity; the activity individuals involved; time involved); history of activity (changes in numbers and types; types of clients; locations and frequency); expectations for the future; current locations within Park waters. Characteristics of * Structure of the industry or activity; characteristics of manager, employee and/or the users user (including age, gender, ethnic background, education, and economic status); seasonality and duration of involvement; area of residence; basis of participation; dependency for income (including changes over time); willingness and tendency to shift to other employment; types and acceptability of altemate jobs; individuals or businesses linked to activity; type and nature of indirect ties to other activities. Users 'perceptions of * Perceptions of reef conditions; most significant impacts; perceptions of impacts from Park management water sports, hotels, fishing, farming, cruise ships, manufacturing, littering, city sewage, others; environmental awareness and concem; group involved in marine environmental management; group resources to benefit management; top concems for the Park; needs for better Park management. Cultural value a Attitude and outlook towards the activity (of management, staff, and/or users); of activity importance to the user group community; perceptions of larger Montego Bay community's attitude and outlook towards the activity; importance to the larger community and particular groups. Community and * Formal and informal organizations (social and professional) and structures; institutional structures decision-making processes (including addressing common problems); nature of social relations within group; relations and interactions with other groups (including fishing, water sports, hotels, farming, cruise ships, and manufacturing); other groups' effects on your use; nature of relations with government officials; trust in political institutions; relations and involvement with the Park; perceptions of the Park. Economics * General industry or activity economic state; profitability of industry or activity; typical cost structures (capital outlays, labor, repairs and depreciation, goods and services, taxes, other); changes over time and perceived reasons behind changes. The Social Contextfor Local Management in Jamaica 163 Focus Groups in Park management activities included observations of Two focus group meetings were conducted with repre- patrols and daily Park staff activities, and attending Park sentatives of fishers and water sports operators to solicit Trust meetings. These observations provided insight into further information with regard to their general concerns the mechanics of the user group activities and also helped for management of the Park, actions they would like the gain the trust of the interviewees. Park to take to address those concerns, and the potential role their user group can play in Park management. These Socio-Economic Background of User Groups meetings were conducted in part because of the Park's specific interest in learning about the management con- In order to comprehend the socio-economic values of cems and interests of the primary user groups. Five water coral reefs and the socio-economic implications of reef sports operators, representing four businesses, attended management decisions, it is important to understand the the water sports focus group meeting. The fisher focus socio-economic framework that underlies the human group meeting was conducted with approximately thirty behavior affecting the reefs. This section provides the River Bay fishers. socio-economic background of fishing, water sports ac- Telephone Survey tivities, and hotel operations, which is necessary for Using the same target questions as the focus group meet- analyzing the socio-economic factors affecting reef man- Usig te sme aret uesion asth fous rou met- agemnent in Montego Bay Marine Park. Each of thes ings, a telephone survey was conducted of hoteliers to acti is aocted w itevealkusEr go (taes assess their concerns and interests with regard to Park 11.3). The profiles presented here include information on management. The telephone survey was the technique of the u roups crrent, past and lute levelsan tp choice for this user group due to the difficulty in trying to the user groupsw current, past and future levels and types arrange a focus group meeting. Prior to initiating the sur- vey, a fax describing the purpose of the survey was sent Fishing to the 23 hotels who border the Park and/or who have expressed a particular interest in Park management. Eight Fishing has been, and continues to be, an important socio- hoteliers participated in the survey. economic component of Montego Bay, particularly to the five landing beaches-River Bay, White House, Reading, Participant Observation Bogue, and Spring Gardens. Over 85% of the approxi- Two means of participant observation were conducted mately 400 registered fishers are based out of the two throughout the field research period: i) participation in largest sites, River Bay and White House, while the re- user group activities, and ii) participation in Park man- mainder are based out of Reading, Bogue and Spring agement activities. Participation in user group activities Gardens (Figure 11.1). In addition, an estimated 150 includedparticipating in specific user activities (e.g., glass- unregistered spear fishers operate from indeterminate sites bottom boat snorkeling) and attending user organizational along the coastline. Excluding the number of fishers who activities (e.g., the Montego Bay branch meeting of the fish outside of Park waters, there are approximately 378 Jamaica Hotel and Tourism Association). Participation fishers fishing in the Park.1 Table 11.3. Users associated with fishing, water sports, and hotel development. Activity Primary users Fishing Full-time and part-time fishers at River Bay, White House, Reading, Bogue, and Spring Gardens landing beaches Water sports activities Dive, snorkel, and party cruise operators (including owners, managers and staff), and visiting snorkelers and diversa Hotel operations Hoteliers (hotel owners and managers) and hotel staff a Tourists, including visiting divers and snorkelers, were assessed in a contingent valuation study (Chapter 6); this report focused on the water sports operators, which includes the owners, managers, and staff. 164 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support AModeling Spear and hand line fishing are the predominant meth- from the airport to off of Doctor's Cave beach, the reef ods of fishing in Park waters, followed by net and trap along the north western side of Seawind, and the reef west- fishing. Trap fishing typically occurs within a mile of ward along the coast to the Great River. Although catch shore, in depths of 30 to 60ft, on sand and near the reefs per unit effort (per fishing trip) has declined to approx- (Figure 11.1).3 Some fishers set as deep as 80 to 90ft to imately 10 to 20lbs per trip, the number of registered avoid vandalism by spear fishers, although this approach fishers has increased 68% within the past three years. As reduces catch rates. Net fishing typically occurs in sandy catches have declined, fishers with motorized boats are areas often between the reef and the shore. The primary shifting to offshore trolling, which occurs outside Park net fishing sites are behind Doctor's Cave reef, along River boundaries. Fishers without engines continue to predomi- Bay landing beach, and east of Spring Gardens landing nantly fish within Park waters. beach. Hand line (or hook and line) fishing occurs from Based on the interview data, a realistic average yearly offshore to shallow areas and, subsequently, overlaps with individual net income before taxes for most fishers (with many of the other fishing activities, particularly those of the exception of spear fishers) is approximately J$104,000 trap fishing (Figure 11. 1). Spear fishers fish as deep as to J$156,000 (US$3,000 to US$4,500).3 This results in a 60ft and as much as half a mile offshore. Within the Park total net income of US$1,134,000 to US$1,701,000/yr for waters, the most popular spear fishing areas are the reef all fishers. Weekly individual incomes, before taxes, per Park Boundary Airport Net Hand Line L I ; 00 Spear, Trap, and Ca beaave Beach ; Hand Line No Fishing Zone 0 ffS}I 1 _ _ : _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ Nautical Miles N 0 00 ;t 0$? :; 1 t t:j: ;>: :t : /00$0Xz 0 0.: 0X0000 tj Si it000 0 0 ; :tRiver Bay landing beach Montego Great River landing beach Reading ~Rive landing beaclandHegights lanin beach ding000 00;v0A00 Xitl 00 andn ec QiGreat River . landing be a c Heights Reading Figure 11.1. Fishing activities within Montego Bay Marine Park. The Social Contextfor Local Management in Jamaica 165 fishing activity are estimated as: J$750 to J$2,500 (US$21 contracts to the hotels, while the party cruises market their to US$71) for trolling; J$250 to J$500 (US$7 to US$14) businesses through concessionaires at the hotel and water for trap fishing; J$750 to J$2,250 (US$21 to US$64) for sports desks. Many of the glass-bottom boat and snorkel net fishing; J$750 to J$2,500 (US$21 to US$71) for hand operations remain independently run; however, these busi- line fishing; and J$5,000 to J$7,000 (US$143 to US$200) nesses are in dramatic decline, surviving only "by the for spear fishing. mercy of God" as noted by one operator. According to Fisheries Division (Ministry of Agricul- With the exception of the party cruisers and the inde- ture, Government of Jamaica) statistics, approximately pendent snorkel operators, the water sports operations 69% of fishers depend on fishing as a full-time source of are mainly located along the Park coast, particularly ad- employment. Interviewees estimated that 70% to 95% jacent to the strip of hotels north of the Park and, to a depend on fishing as their sole source of income; how- lesser extent, southwest of Montego Bay (Figure 11.2). ever, fishers also noted that most fishers have a second Doctor's Cave reef is the main snorkeling, diving, and means of income. Almost all fishers are subsistence or cruising destination. small-scale commercial fishermen who sell their catch The water sports industry is an entrepreneurial busi- directly to the public at the landing beaches. ness with strong Jamaican representation. Over 90% of Fishers are generally characterized as poorly educated, the water sports operations are Jamaican owned and man- low income Jamaicans with reputations for being highly aged. Originally, most operators entered the business independent. As one fisher defined his peer group, the because of their love of the water-"you had to love it" "poorer class of people is the fisherman." The young fish- and it was something that became "a way of life". How- ers tend to view fishing as a flexible means of making a ever, within the past ten years, there has been a shift such good living while retaining their independence. Although that water sports operations are being increasingly viewed the older fishers also value their independence, they value as a business investment. With the decline in business, fishing as an important part of their lives, more so than owners and managers are seeking altemative additional the younger fishers. As one older fisher stated, "I love investments. fishing more than I love girls... it's in my whole being." Total direct employment in the water sports industry In addition to being important to the fishers, fishing is is estimated at 200 employees. In contrast to the owners also an important component of the surrounding commu- and managers, the typical water sports staff is a young (18 nities, particularly at White House and River Bay. As to 37 years of age) Jamaican male with little education, one fisher noted, "Fishing plays a major role... It's the single with two to three children, referred to by a couple backbone of social and economic life here." of managers as "beach bums". Water sports positions are considered good jobs because they offer a relatively high Water Sports Activities income while requiring a low level of skill. The employ- ees have the added benefit of being able to work on the Water sports activities in Montego Bay include 28 dive water. Turnover is relatively high (one to four years) operations, snorkel businesses, party cruisers, and small- within individual shops; however, staff tend to stay within scale water sports businesses. Based on a survey of these the industry as a whole. operations, combined they take a total of over 3,100 tour- ists and nearly 220 trips into Park waters each week. On Hotel Operations an annual basis, over 163,000 tourists utilize Park waters through over 11,000 water sports trips. "The cradle of Jamaica's 201 century tourist industry," Water sports operations in Montego Bay began in the Montego Bay plays a major role in Jamaican tourism 1940s when the first glass-bottom boats began operating. (GMRC 1996). Montego Bay receives 82% of all foreign Following the trend of the tourism industry, water sports national stopovers at its airport, accommodates 38% of boomed in the 1970s and 1980s. In the last five years, the those visitors, receives 26% to 34% of Jamaica's cruise number of private water sports operations has stabilized ship visitors, and contributes approximately 15% of and has started to decline, which operators anticipate will Jamaica's foreign exchange earnings (GMRC 1996). continue. Since the shift towards all-inclusive hotels be- Paralleling the growth of the tourism industry in Mon- gan 20 years ago, water sports operations, particularly tego Bay, the hotel industry began in the 1920s, increased the small watercraft operations, have been increasingly in the 1940s and the 1950s, declined dramatically during owned and managed by hotels. Currently over 66% of the socio-political unrest of the 1970s, rejuvenated in the the beachfront hotels run their own water sports. Dive 1980s, and is currently viewed as stabilizing. During this businesses are independently owned and operated under time, there has been a shift in the type of hotels from elite, 166 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling I ~~~~Airport '¾ : Park Boundary fl%; : / Party Cruising Doctor's [jjj 0 X\ Diving Ca ribbean Cave Beach I I 000 [-\\\ Snorkelling / 0 ;00 tft *Base of Operations X,t0 i N ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Mntego Figure 11.2. Water sports activities within Montego Bay Marine Park. high-class, foreign-owned hotels, typical of the I920s to eluding 6,400 direct and 9,700 indirect employees. The 1960s, to the current mix of exclusive resorts, small hotel employees, who are typically Jamaican with a high European plan hotels, and large, mass-market all-inclu- school level education, view their jobs as a means of sive hotels. Despite the continued shift towards large, income with few long-term expectations. all-inclusive hotels (11 of 56 hotels are currently all- inclusives), the predominate type of hotel is still small These socio-economic profiles highlight the diverse and non-all-inclusive (41 of 56 hotels have less than 100 nature of these three reef user groups, all of whose activi- rooms). Currently, there are 56 hotels with 5,371 rooms, ties affect the reefs and reef environment in some way. Annual occupancy rates average 53.3 7%, with over The use patterns and characteristics of the groups range 800,000 rooms sold per year. from the poor communities of fishers, who have been fish- In large part due to the socio-political changes of the ing Montego Bay's waters for generations, to the water 1970s, the hotel industry, particularly the smaller hotels, sports operators, who in conjunction with the hoteliers, are predominantly (over 75%) Jamaican owned and serve a multi-meillion dollar tourism industry. These socio- managed. The hotel managers and owners view the hotel economic backgrounds provide the context for assessing industry as both a business and as a way of life. Hotel the management implications of the user group charac- employment is estimated at over 16,000 employees, in- teristics and usage pattems. The Social Contextfor Local Management in Jamaica 167 Socio-Economic Factors of The fact that such a large group of users is dependent on Importance to Reef Management the fishing, water sports, and hotel industries for em- ployment and earnings illustrates the importance of the Analysis of the socio-economic context of the three user reefs. Further, these findings indicate that dramatic groups indicates that there are several factors of particular changes in reef quality or changes in the management of significance for reef management programs and policies. reef activities could significantly and directly affect a These relate to: i) patterns of use; ii) the level of depend- large group of dependent users. These statistics demon- ence on the resource; iii) the cultural value of reef activi- strate the political significance of continuing Park man- ties; iv) ethnicity; v) relations within and among user agement programs to ensure the long-term sustainability groups; vi) the nature of indirect links to the Montego of the reef resources and, subsequently, the user groups Bay community; vii) the level of awareness and concern they support. for the resource; viii) relations with the Montego Bay Marine Park; and, ix) the nature and extent of resources Cultural Value of ReefActivities of use to management efforts. In addition to the benefits of reefs through direct employ- Patterns of Use ment and earnings and the multiplying economic effects though the larger economy, there are also cultural values Comparison of usage patterns reveals a significant over- associated with the reef activities. The cultural impor- lap between water sports and fishing activities (Figures tance of fishing is demonstrated by the older fishers' love 11.1 and 11.2). Doctor's Cave, located immediately off- for the activity and its importance to the communities shore from the main strip of hotels, is the prime destina- surrounding the two main landing beaches, WVhite House tion for party cruise, dive, snorkel, and glass-bottom boat and River Bay. The cultural importance of fishing con- operations. This area is also one of the most popular firms the need to consider the implications of manage- fishing areas for trap, hand line, and spear fishers. Since ment decisions not only in economic terms, but in the the reefs are immediately offshore from the hotels, the way management decisions may change peoples' way of reefs are also at risk from sediment run-off and sewage life and, subsequently, impact their values. disposal associated with hotel developments. As the in- In contrast to the older fishers, the hoteliers, water tensity of use by divers and snorkelers has increased with sports operators, and young fishers are increasingly view- the expanding tourism industry, rivalry has lead to con- ing their activities as businesses. This shift towards a busi- flicts over resource usage to the point that each group is ness perception of reef usage illustrates the importance of accusing the other of sabotaging their ability to fish or demonstrating the economic benefits of reef conservation dive the reefs. The fishers are accused of fishing out the programs in order to gain these users' compliance and dive and snorkel sites; the water sports operators are ac- support. cused of opening the fishers' traps. These conflicts may pose the greatest challenge to managers, who are faced Ethnicity with having to maintain a balance of these various activi- ties at sustainable levels, as well as having to limit or Jamaicans dominate the fishing, hotel and water sports mitigate the impacts of one user group's activities on industries. Over 75% of the hotel owners are Jamaican, another. over 90% of the water sports owners are Jamaican, and all of the Park fishers are Jamaican. Furthermore, most Dependence on Resource Use of the hoteliers and water sports operators have been work- ing in the tourism industry for ten to twenty years with As discussed above, there are approximately 400 fishers little turnover, while most of the fishers have been fish- and 200 water sports operators whose livelihoods directly ing Montego Bay waters "since they were old enough to depend on the reef resources. Approximately 70% to walk". As a consequence of their long histories in the 95% of the fishers depend on fishing as their primary region, these groups have direct knowledge ofthe resource source of income with limited alternatives. The majority conditions and impacts over time. This knowledge has of water sports staff are full-time employees dependent contributed to their appreciation for the importance of on water sports as their primary source of income. Also, conservation and sustainable use practices. In addition there are approximately 6,400 direct hotel employees who to taking advantage of the users' long-term knowledge to benefit from the reefs as a tourist attraction for hotel guests. develop a better understanding of changes in resource 168 I-ntegrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling conditions and appropriate locations for management pro- widespread direct and indirect employment, triggered fur- grams (e.g., high diversity areas for reef monitoring), ther rounds of economic activities, provided outlets for managers can draw on the users' pride in their natural cultural and artistic expressions, and impacted positively treasures to develop concern and support for reef man- on Jamaica's government revenue and to the current ac- agement programs. count of its balance of payments." With regard to water sports activities, the water sports operators are linked to each other, the hotels and the cruise operators through commissions, contracts and ownership. Forward links Relations between user groups are generally poor. There from fishing to other activities are relatively limited since are limited interactions between fishers and hoteliers, in fishing is largely subsistence with few sales; however, large part due to their distinct socio-economic back- there are important backward links from goods and serv- grounds. Private water sports operators have feelings of ices sold to the fishers by the surrounding communities. resentment towards some of the hoteliers, particularly the The backward and forward linkages between various sec- all-inclusive managers, because they are increasingly tors indicate that management programs and changes in dominating the water sports industry. Antagonistic rela- reef quality can have significant effects on the larger tions have developed between fishers and water sports Montego Bay commnunity. operators because each group feels the other is threaten- ing their livelihood through fishing out the marine life Awareness and Concern and through opening or damaging fish traps, respectively. Regular encounters in Park waters, while using the re- All three user groups recognize that marine resource con- source, compound the problem. ditions are deteriorating at an alarming rate. Further, these With regard to the relations among users within each groups generally agree on the major causes-specifically, of these three user groups, there are strong formal and/or pollution from solid waste and sewage disposal. The water informal professional and social relations within each sports operators and hoteliers generally recognize, and distinct user group. The two fishing communities at River are concerned about, the impacts of their own activities Bay and White House landing beaches have established and their guests' activities. In contrast, the fishers do not cooperatives that lobby for their mutual interests, includ- see fishing as having a major impact on the reefs. As one ing improved facilities and duty-free concessions. Ho- fisher noted, "more fishers means catch more fish". Per- teliers have both formalized interactions through the haps of greater importance, there are misunderstandings Montego Bay chapter of the Jamaica Hotel and Tourism by fishers and some hoteliers regarding Park regulations, Association, as well as informal relations through social particularly boundary locations, and there is a general lack events. Although the water sports operators do not have of awareness of Park activities. This lack of awareness an organizational structure, as one operator noted, "eve- regarding Park activities has contributed to the current ryone knows everyone". These formal and informal net- lack of trust in the Park's ability to effectively manage the works within each user group have provided opportuni- Park resources. Future support and assistance from these ties for these users to work together towards addressing important user groups depends on better communication their common concems. This framework could provide a regarding Park activities. Further, compliance of the fish- basis for developing users' participation in, and support ers with Park regulations necessitates an awareness pro- of, Park management programs. Further, the organiza- gram on the short-term effects of intensive fishing on tional network of each user group could be drawn upon to marine resources and the long-term benefits of sustain- build ties between groups and, ultimately, develop inter- able fishing practices. sectoral, comprehensive management programs that ad- dress the diversity of activities affecting the Park resources. Relations With the Montego Bay Marine Park Indirect Links to the Montego Bay Community Water sports operators generally have strong, positive relations with the Park staff. Many water sports manag- There are many indirect links between these three user ers and owners have been actively involved in Park man- groups and the larger Montego Bay community that are agement, including lobbying for the establishment of the primarily associated with the tourism and hotel industry. Park, serving on advisory commissions and the current As the GMRC (1996) reported, the hotel industry, "has Park Trust, and assisting in Park management programs, created significant inflows of foreign currency, generated such as the reef mooring system and public education The Social Context for Local Management in Jamaica 169 programs. This positive relationship is in direct contrast Guiding Principles for with the Park's relations with the fishers. The common Future Reef Management perception of the fishers regarding management is well reflected in one fisher's comment: "Now Park is helping The analysis of the socio-economic factors of importance us into trouble.., need to help us out of trouble." The to reef management provides the basis for developing fishers, who have been fishing the Montego Bay waters guiding principles for future reef management in Mon- for generations, feel that they are being unfairly targeted tego Bay Marine Park. The analysis highlights several in the Park's attempts to protect the reefs and the marine major insights regarding the importance of: i) user group conditions. awareness and concern; ii) opportunities to market the Relations between the Park and hoteliers vary. Some Park and to provide incentives; iii) user group involve- hoteliers assist in fund-raising efforts by hosting events ment in management; iv) management of the Park as a and sponsoring individual management programs, while community resource; and, v) inter-sectoral coordination other hoteliers are not even aware that the Park exists. among user groups. This section discusses the impor- The Park's positive relations with the water sports opera- tance of these principles, their current state with regard to tors and some hoteliers indicate that these two groups can Montego Bay Marine Park management, and how they be continued sources of technical assistance and support; can be developed to maximize the socio-economic ben- however, the poor relations with the fishers indicate that efits of reef use through effective management. the Park will have to demonstrate its support of fishing activities within Park waters in order to gain the fishers' User Group Awareness and Concern support for sustainable fishing programs and further man- agement efforts initiated by the Park. A greater awareness of the Park and its policies and programs is essential if effective management is to be Resources of Use to Management Efforts achieved. High levels of user group awareness and con- cern regarding reef conditions, impacts and management The resources of the different user groups can potentially issues serve as a basis to work towards ensuring sustain- benefit Park management. Both the water sports opera- able use and conservation of the reef resources. The user tors and the fishers are highly knowledgeable of the reefs groups are the individuals with potentially the greatest and have ready access. The water sports operators snor- impacts on the reef quality, but also are potentially the kel and dive specific reef locations on a daily to weekly greatest supporters politically, financially, and in kind. basis. Although their schedule is less predictable, reef Without faith in the Park's abilities and initiatives, user fishers are on the water between one to five times each support will not be forthcoming. week and have relatively flexible working schedules. Currently the majority of the fishers, water sports Mooring, monitoring and enforcement programs are three operators and hoteliers are aware of the decline in the programs that could actively involve the operators and reef conditions and of the nature of the impacts, but many fishers in managing the reefs while taking advantage of of the fishers and hoteliers are unclear or unfamiliar with their reef knowledge and access. Park regulat.ons, policies and programs. The fishers, for Hoteliers offer another important resource-funding. example, p-.rceive the Park to be trying to push them Hoteliers already support some community social serv- completely out of Park waters; however, Park objectives ices, such as the school bus system, as part of their public are to allc w multiple, sustainable levels of activities, in- relations program; eliciting hotel support for coral reef cluding fishing. As a result of these misunderstandings, conservation efforts would further promote cornmunity many of the fishers and hoteliers, and a few of the water relations and contribute to their reputations as environ- sports operators, lack trust, or are losing trust, in the abili- mentally sensitive tourist accommodations. The financial ties of Park authorities to manage the area. This has led resources of the relatively affluent, increasingly conser- to low levels of compliance with regulations and man- vation-minded nature of many of the tourists might also agement directives and waning support for the Park. The be accessed through the hotels. Hosting fund-raising need to increase Park awareness is at a critical stage as events, selling Park concession items in their gift shops, the demand for the marine resources and the levels of including a "donation to the Montego Bay Marine Park" use are increasing, yet the environmental conditions are option on guest bills, and collecting user fees are some of declining. This situation will only lead to an increase in the ways hotels could utilize their access to the tourist the rival behavior of the users, and animosity and conflict community to solicit funds for the Park. between groups. 170 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs. Decision Support Modeling This lack of awareness is attributed, in part, to poor near pristine marine environment with a biologically communication between the Park and the users, the lack diverse and healthy coral reef environment. However, of visible, tangible products and services from the Park, although the economic health of the accommodations and a lack of user education regarding Park goals and sector directly depends on tourism, the direct link be- programs. This analysis indicates that improved aware- tween the marine environmental conditions and business ness requires that Park education programs be targeted activity are not necessarily perceived by owners and specifically to the user groups, perhaps through outreach managers. Consequently, business and management de- programs, and that they highlight the Park's management cisions rarely consider the potential impacts of decisions programs, particularly the beneficial, tangible products on the reefs. and services the Park provides (e.g., training for fishers, The Park needs to provide the link between reef con- mooring system for water sports operators). servation and the direct economic benefits to businesses. Park awareness programs also need to demonstrate the This may be accomplished by "selling" support for the value of conservation not only in terms of biodiversity, Park and its reef management programs. Given the tour- but also in terms of the social, cultural, and economic ists' increasing demand for "environmentally friendly" values ofreefs and their associated activities. Users' gen- products and services, tourism related industries (e.g., eral awareness and concern regarding reef conservation hotels and water sports operations) can utilize their sup- may be enhanced by focusing on the benefits to their busi- port of the Park to attract tourists to their "eco-conscious" nesses and way of life, and by taking advantage of their businesses. An example of a mechanism for soliciting sense of pride in their natural heritage. The owners, op- support that would allow these businesses to demonstrate erators, and employees of the fishing, water sports and their environmental commitment is a "Friend of the Reef' hotel businesses are predominately Jamaicans and long- program in which donors are presented framed certificates term participants in the industry. Montego Bay Marine and given special advertising rights in tourist magazines. Park management strategies can take advantage of the resi- Given that hoteliers and water sports operators are increas- dent status, nationality and history of these user groups in ingly viewing their operations as businesses, this strategy the area by emphasizing the direct vested interest these is an appropriate means to tap into these groups' finan- stakeholders have in the conservation of the reefs. Fur- cial resources to the benefit of both the Park and these ther, given that these three user groups are increasingly user groups. viewing their activities as businesses, concern for the reefs In the case of the fishers, where there are fewer direct, may also be increased by demonstrating the economic ben- short-term economic benefits from reef management pro- efits of reef conservation in terms of the number of em- grams, the Park must provide socially and economically ployees and incomes associated with reef activities. In realistic alternatives if fishing activities are to be curtailed. contrast, for the older fishers, management strategies need In order for fishers to begin to cooperate with manage- to show the potential for maintaining the cultural values ment initiatives, the Park needs to demonstrate its support associated with fishing. Targeting the social, cultural and of fishing activities by developing programs that benefit economic values of reefs can demonstrate the importance the fishers (e.g., low rate loans, training in alternate oc- of sustainable use of the reefs to these diverse groups. cupations), rather than programs that have the apparent intent to alienate their way of life (e.g., more "no fishing" Opportunities to Market the zones). Such programs could be in the form of financial Park and to Provide Incentives or educational support for an alteration in their fishing patterns or techniques. Regardless of the form, these In addition to developing a greater understanding of the programs need to be initiated before further restrictions socio-economic benefits of coral reef conservation through on use are imposed. programs that increase awareness and concern, users must also be able to realize those benefits directly. The closer User Group Involvement the tie between reef conditions and business earmings, the greater the users' support for reef conservation. The Another important guiding principle for reef management links between coral reef conditions within the Montego is user group involvement in which there are cooperative Bay Marine Park and the economic and social benefits efforts between the public and private sectors. Involve- are not immediately apparent for some user groups. For ment of individuals affected by management decisions in example, the tourism business in the area depends to a the decision-making process helps gather political sup- large extent on Montego Bay maintaining an image of a port for, increase compliance with, and reduce opposition The Social Contextfor Local Management in Jamaica 171 to, policy proposals, projects, and other decisions by con- Management of the Park as a sidering and building in users' concerns. User involve- Community Resource ment brings into decision-making more information and The coral reefs of Montego Bay are common pool re- a wider range of experiences, both of which contribute to sources managed under a regime of open access The the~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~~~~ore manageden unde aor regimeti ofice open access.aTh the development of more realistic policies and programs. restrictions that have been put in place with the intent of Further, user involvement ultimately maximizes limtnited preventing or curtailing the use by some groups have been public agency resources by drawing from user resources ineffectively enforced (e.g., the ban on spear fishing), (e.g., fishers and dive operators' daily access to, and knowl- while there are few restrictions on use by other groups edge of, the reefs)... Many of, use reefs,. ptulw rpsp o,- (e.g., diving and snorkeling). The user groups are gener- Many users, particularlywatersportsoperators,al- ally aware of the severe decline in the reef conditions, yet ready play significant roles in management of the Montego under the cuent management environment it is unrealis- Bay Marine Park, primarily through informal and formal tic to expect the users to curtail or alter their use patterns, relations with the Park. As outlined above, water sports with the associated loss in short-tern benefits or addi- operators generally have strong, positive relations with tional incurred costs, because it will be seen as a sacrifice the Park staff, having been actively involved in Park man- for the benefit of others. The open access regime needs agement. Relations between the Park and hotels and the to be replaced in favor of a management regime that pro- extent of involvement by hoteliers varies. Existing, posi- vides for exclusion and the capture of economic rent from tive relations can be used to foster long-term commitments users benefiting from the use of the reef. to the Park. The issue of managing the coral reefs through the User involvement can be facilitated by focusing on allocation of "property rights" is not only a matter of resources that the users can provide to management such limiting and licensing users and collecting user fees (or as access to, and knowledge of, the reefs and fund-raising other vehicles for rent capture). Ideally, it also involves opportunities. These resources can be tapped by working changing the social perception of the coral reefs by de- through existing organizational structures and networks. veloping a sense of the reefs as a community resource. For example, the formal organizational structure provided This means fostering the belief that each user has an in- by the Jamaica Hotel and TourismAssociation has already terest in effective management and that their long-term provided a means for hoteliers to work together. This can interests are protected. This strategy can strengthen their be tapped to develop cooperative programs with the Park. individual positions as important components of the larger Further, the strong community structure evident within community and as integral participants in Park man- the White House fishing community can provide a base agement, whether they be fishers, water sports operators, for developing better communication between the fishers or hoteliers. and the Park. This community structure can be used as a All three previously discussed guiding principles for vehicle for implementing programs in which fishers are reef management will help develop a sense of community directly involved. River Bay fishers are more reticent of around the resource-a sense of community that neces- new approaches and, thus, will likely be more skeptical sarily arises out of an increase in the awareness and con- of new Park initiatives, yet there is the potential of work- cern over the resource, an increase in the ability to see ing through the River Bay Fishermen's Cooperative to direct social, cultural, and economic benefits from con- gain acceptance and direct involvement. By developing servation, and an active role by all users in the develop- programs that utilize the users' resources and skills, these ment and implementation of management programs. groups can be positively brought into the management process while contributing to its success. Finally, successful development of a program of user involvement in Park management needs to demonstrate a Given the diversity of activities affecting the reefs (e.g., commitment to multiple use. Fairness in user treatment pollution, snorkeling, diving, and fishing; see Chapters I needs to be instilled and perceived by users. Fishers pre- and 2), management must be integrated across sectors and dominantly feel that they are being unfairly targeted by across the land-sea boundary. Coordination within and management authorities in the Park's efforts to bring un- among user groups is important for users to participate der control the continuing decline of the reef conditions, in, and contribute towards, comprehensive management while other damaging activities go unchecked (e.g., party efforts of these diverse activities. Building better rela- cruises, diving, snorkeling). There needs to be more tions, and eventually coordination, between user groups balanced involvement of all the user groups. improves support for management initiatives. 172 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling The study revealed that user groups are sectoralized, through marine bioprospecting, involving consideration with few working or social relationships forged between of the size and distribution of use values through cap- user groups. This sectoralization is quite evident even tured rent, profits, or value added. The link between the within particular user groups. For example, River Bay socio-economic assessment and the economic valuation fishers have few relations with White House fishers, and studies for Montego Bay Marine Park can most clearly all-inclusive hotel water sports operators are not on fa- be seen through the identified socio-economic factors of miliar terms with those working in non-hotel affiliated importance for reef management. First, the extent of the water sports. In many instances, the lack of either social dependence on resource use documented by this study or working relationships, and the lack of an understand- outlines the nature of the direct employment and eamings ing of the other users, has lead to antagonism and con- for approximately 8,000 people among the three primary flict, a lack of trust between groups, an unwillingness to user groups (fishers, water sports operators, and hoteliers), comply with management initiatives, and, ultimately, fur- as well as many socio-economic links with other compo- ther degradation of the reef. nents of the economy and the community at large. The As discussed with regard to user group involvement, direct production values associated with tourism and fish- the current network of users can serve as a base for devel- eries are the subject of the local use study (Chapter 5). oping further, positive interactions. By focusing on the This socio-economic assessment provides additional cul- similar interests of the users and ways to resolve con- tural and social context for the more detailed modeling of flicts, coordination between groups can be facilitated. By the associated fisheries and tourism production values. gradually building positive relations among the user Second, the cultural value of reef activities, described here, groups, they will ultimately be able to work together to are also addressed through the contingent valuation study, maximize the range of available resources, minimize du- in which the willingness-to-pay for conservation by local plication, and ensure complementary and cooperative pro- residents and tourists is estimated (Chapter 6). The socio- grams as part of a comprehensive effort towards reef economic assessment again provides necessary detail to management. assist with the successful implementation of policies and programs by providing the larger context necessary to con- sider the viability of altematives. For example, potential Conclusions mechanisms that can be used to capture tourist consumer surplus (the difference between the amount of money that This study compliments the other components of the they would be willing to pay and what they actually do larger World Bank project, which is developing and test- have to pay), as measured through the contingent valua- ing methodologies for estimating the benefits derived tion, are identified through the examination of the poten- from the use of coral reefs in the developing tropics (see tial user group resources. other contributions in this publication). The potential In addition to the links with other components of the policy directions arising out of a cost-benefit analysis coral reef valuations, this study presents findings not ad- aimed at achieving an economically efficient outcome dressed by the other project components. These findings can be assessed with regard to the socio-economic impli- relate directly to considerations necessary for effective cations using the analysis presented in this study. More management, including the pattems of use, the ethnicity specifically, the guiding principles, which were developed and extent of involvement of the users, the relations within through the analysis by considering the socio-economic and among user groups, relations of the users with Park factors of importance for management, can be used to help authorities, and the identification of user resources that focus policy and program efforts to achieve an efficient, may be beneficial to management. The identification of viable, and sustainable management strategy. an economically efficient conservation effort based on the As presented in the previous chapters, the coral reef economic valuation and least cost intervention studies valuation work focused on: i) an examination of the di- alone would not necessarily lead to a successful or effi- rect and indirect local use values, focusing on the esti- cient program in practice, without considering the impli- mation of the contribution of coral reef biodiversity to cations of critical socio-economic factors such as those production values; ii) an examination of the contribution presented in this study. of coral reefs to the utility of individuals through a con- tingent valuation survey to reveal willingness-to-pay for both use and non-use benefits; and, iii) an examination of the potential for biodiversity values to be realized The Social Contextfor Local Management in Jamaica 173 Endnotes The approximate total of 378 fishers fishing within Park wa- ters is based on the summation of the following: 150 unregis- tered spear fishers, 10% of all registered fishers in White House, and 100% of all registered net, spear, trap, hand line, and "other" fishers in the other four landing beaches. 2 The fishing zones in Figure 11.1 are not as spatially distinct as depicted. Methods of fishing overlap with adjacent meth- ods, particularly as one moves from offshore to inshore. How- ever, there is an overall pattern of zonation as indicated in the figure. This calculation is based on the estimated J$2000 to J$3000 per week net income, before taxes, per fisher. A figure slightly higher than that calculated based on second-hand catch and price information was assumed based on the judgment that the higher estimate was more "realistic" (based on cross-check- ing of information from other sources and as provided in other components of the interviews). The net income "nets out" operating costs, maintenance and depreciation, and returns for capital investments (i.e., return to the owner of the boat). The exchange rate assumed throughout this document is J$35=US$l. I Chapter 12 Incorporating Genetic Resource Utilization into ICZM-Policies and Institutions in Jamaica Daniel Putterman Genetic Resources Consulting, Washington, DC, USA Biodiversity that is of interest to industry for its potential while this chapter is intended as a contribution to the study to provide diverse chemicals, enzymes and genes is known of marine biodiversity, the reviews and recommendations as genetic resources. Genetic resources yielding poten- contained herein are equally applicable to terrestrial ge- tially valuable products include terrestrial and marine mi- netic resources. Utilization of both marine and terrestrial crobes, plants, insects, venomous animals and marine genetic resources involves many common techniques and organisms. The notion that developing countries can legal issues, while policy mechanisms to regulate the use integrate the sustainable use of marine genetic resources of these resources are intimately linked. As such, the into coastal zone planning is a new one. Several inter- policy recommendations in this chapter are intended to national treaties empower the Government of Jamaica regulate the utilization of both marine and terrestrial under international law to enact regulations promoting genetic resources. this. The objectives of this chapter are to: i) provide the Government of Jamaica as well as private organizations, Two Jamaican Case Studies- including non-government organizations (NGOs), private Statement of the Problem industry, and academia, with an assessment of Jamaican To illustrate genetic resources issues with which Jamaica institutions with expertise relevant to the management of currently grapples, two case studies involving actual use marine genetic resources; and, ii) provide a concise set are presented. of policy recommendations intended to enable Jamaica to capture the maximum value created by commercial Marine Bioprospecting in Jamaican Coastal Waters research and development (R&D) with marine genetic Interviews with Jamaican researchers revealed that at least resources. a half-dozen formal foreign research expeditions had col- The following section considers two Jamaican case lected marine genetic resources in Jamaican coastal wa- studies involving genetic resources (R&D), then provides ters over the past three decades. In addition, there was a a brief review of commerce and policy issues related to general feeling that a number of unauthorized expeditions genetic resources utilization. Subsequent sections sum- had collected in Jamaican waters and on land. In one marize the results of an institutional assessment (con- case, a large US oceanographic research institute had sent ducted late February 1998), define components of a mini- a deep-sea submersible to collect sponges in 1993. The mal policy on genetic resources utilization, and explore project, which was approved by the Jamaican government, the development implications of claiming different kinds listed one of its objectives as the development of new of rights to genetic resources research material. This chap- commercial products with pharmaceutical, agrochemical, ter concludes by revisiting the Jamaican case studies of or other industrial applications. genetic resources utilization and providing altemative Although the Government of Jamaica had issued a scenarios based upon the policy recommendations. collecting permit for this project, ironically there was no The development ofmarine genetic resources into new mechanism to capture a portion of the value of these commercial products can be a powerful tool for conser- marine genetic resources for the source country, other vation and economic development, and as such, marine than the obligation to leave taxonomic voucher speci- genetic resources ought to be incorporated into integrated mens at the University of the West Indies at Mona (UWI). coastal zone management (ICZM) planning. However, Future expeditions to Jamaica may encounter difficulty 176 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling obtaining a research permit from the Natural Resources Introduction to Genetic Resources Issues- Conservation Authority (NRCA), given the general anxi- Commerce and Policy ety over this inability to share in the benefits of research Biologists describe the diversity of biological systems at and the mistrust that it engenders. three scales (for a review see Wilson 1992). Ecosystem Biotechnology Based Improvement of Jamaican diversity measures the diversity of biological processes Papaya Germplasm and organization across a landscape. Species diversity is the level with which most are familiar, and is sometimes The Jamaican papaya industry has developed into an misunderstood as the only definition of biodiversity. At important source of foreign exchange, with 1995 export tesmalestoscale the is cemical an gicdiversity, sales of approximately US$20 million. A local variety a measure of the biological diversity within spec known as Sunrise Solo had been bred in the early 1980s of the complexity of chemical interactions between spe- by Jamaican growers, adapted from papayas developed cies. Biodiversity at this scale is referred to as genetic in Barbados and Hawaii. However, by the middle of the resources-the source of industrial natural products and 1990s, problems with the Papaya Ringspot Virus, which of new agricultural varieties. Genetic resources yielding causes stunting and production of poor quality spotted otew alual cheties. enzymesorces ielde fruit, had reduced yields by 30% to 40%. During this potentially valuable chemicals, enzymes or genes include tim, anonprfitindsty asocaton,theJaaic Agi- terrestrial and marine microbes (especially fungi, time a non-profit industry association, the Jamaica Agn- actinomycetes and archeae), plants, insects, venomous cultural Development Foundation, contacted a Jamaican animals and marine organisms. researcher studying at Cornell University for assistance Although tropical rainforests are well known for high with developing a strategy to combat the disease. After species diversity, numerous ecosystems, including ma- consultations with Cornell faculty and preliminary tests, rine environments, are valued for their high genetic a project to develop a virus resistant transgenic plant was resources diversity (also called "molecular diversity"). initiated with funding provided, in part, by the Jamaica The molecular diversity among microbes, both terrestrial Agricultural Development Foundation (JADF). and marine, is likely to be orders of magnitude higher Proprietary biotechnology for the development of vi- than that of plants and animals (Paleroni 1994). Harsh rus resistance had been previously made available to environments found on both land and sea are also a Cornell researchers by scientists at Dupont, Monsanto, major source of molecular diversity, and have yielded and other agricultural biotechnology firms. JADF on its valuable "extremophile" micro-organisms adapted to ownnegotiatedaresearch agreementwith Cornell, which living under extremes of heat, cold, pH, or mineral in turn was bound by prior agreements with the compa- concentration. nies that had transferred the technology. Under the Cornell Commerce involving genetic resources can be divided agreement, Jamaican researchers and growers would be into R&D versus production. Examples of production free to use any improved varieties developed by the col- include sourcing plants or microbes for the manufactur- laboration for local research and production for domestic ing ofpharmaceuticals, agrochemicals or herbal products. markets. However, production of the transgenic plants for Examples of R&D include research to identify new in- export would require the negotiation of a license incor- dustrial enzymes or new pharmaceutical drugs from ge- porating a royalty percentage to be paid to the companies. netic resources, also called "bioprospecting". After the virus resistant varieties had been developed, JADF learned that the companies were likely to charge Biological Diversity in the Sea no more than a nominal royalty, in line with company Marine genetic resources deserve special treatment, as policy supporting agricultural development in developing little information is available on practical strategies for countries. using this valuable biodiversity. Estimates of species Development of the transgenic papaya variety stimu- diversity in the sea are growing, and one recent deep-ocean lated the Government of Jamaica to develop a biosafety study put this number as high as 10 million, roughly com- mechanism sufficient to ensure safe field testing of parable to that of terrestrial species diversity (reviewed genetically modified organisms. At this point, JADF's in Norse 1993b). Higher marine species diversity is found remaining tasks include the negotiation of the licensing in coastal ecosystems, and by far the greatest diversity is agreement for commercial production and export. When in the tropics, making the waters surrounding tropical de- the NRCA was interviewed about this topic, it was ap- veloping countries the richest marine source in the world parent that the agency did not possess the most up to date for molecular diversity. Examples of coastal ecosystems information on the project. include coral reefs (with the highest species diversity), Incorporating Genetic Resource Utilization into ICZM-Policies and Institutions in Jamaica 177 seagrass beds, oyster reefs, mangroves, salt marshes, and enzymes such as proteases and collagenases, and are also continental shelves. studied for clues to the development of new agrochemicals Marine genetic resources known to yield useful chemi- (for a review see Zilinskas et al. 1995). cals, enzymes and genes include marine micro-organisms, Marine genetic resources are also the source of ma- plants, invertebrates and cartilaginous fishes. Coastal rine biomaterials and of extremely potent toxins, some of genetic resources are generally collected by scuba diving which may have applications as anticancer drugs or as at depths of less than 1 00m or by dredging at depths of up diagnostic and research tools. Marine genetic resources to 500m to 1 000m on the continental shelf (D'Auria et al. are also of interest to the cosmetics industry, and may one 1993). Taxonomic inventory of marine organisms differs day yield new sunscreens and other skin care products. from that of terrestrial organisms in that collection ex- For example, an anti-inflammatory agent derived from a peditions are somewhat costlier and samples must be tropical sea fan is currently under development as a skin frozen immediately, with the exception of marine micro- care product by a major cosmetics firm (Jacob 1996). organisms, which are usually cultured. Finally, even higher marine animals have yielded prom- The sea yields extraordinary molecular diversity. ising new pharmaceutical leads. One example is squala- Marine genetic resources often contain unusual or high- mine, a potential anticancer drug isolated from cartilage ly complex molecular diversity not found in terrestrial of the dogfish shark Squalus acanthias (Moore et al. organisms (Scheuer 1990). Marine invertebrates, usu- 1993). ally sessile and/or soft-bodied, have intrigued marine Genetic Resources Markets natural products chemists for decades. Scientists have follweda s-caled bioratinal aproac toscren- Large global markets exist for products derived from ge- followed a so-called ''bio-rational'' approach to screen- neirsocs.Tseaeum rzdinabe1 . ing, arguing that, with such seemingly vulnerable body netic resources. These are summarized in Table 12.1. plans, these invertebrates must have evolved effective The Value-Adding Process of chemical defenses as a survival strategy. Preferred ma- Research and Development rine macro-organisms include sponges, cnidarians, bryo- Unique among commercial uses of biodiversity, genetic zoans, molluscs, echinoderms and tunicates. resources R&D relies upon trade in information, rather The potential molecular diversity among marine mi- than physical goods per se, to generate high value prod- crobes is higher still, Many microbes, including dinofla- ucts. The size of samples collected for study can be quite gellates, can be cultured directly from the water column. small, typically less than 1 0Og of material. Samples are New techniques are available for culturing symbiotic or studied to yield such value-added research material as commensal microbes such as bacteria, cyanobacteria and small organic molecules called secondary metabolites, algae from the tissues of macro-organisms. Recent work genes encoding proteins such as enzymes, or metabolic on culturing micro-organisms isolated from the water pathways linking enzymatic reactions together in a proc- column, from shallow water marine sediments including ess known as microbial fermentation. oil seeps, or from marine animal hosts has yielded a prom- Genetic resources research can be divided into a series ising array of new chemicals (Fenical 1993). As the tech- of value-adding processes, beginning with a biological nology for culturing marine microbes develops, it is likely inventory requiring accurate taxonomic identification of that interesting organisms will be discovered in a wide specimens. Inventory strategies include random inven- range of marine hosts. For this reason, conventional pre- tories, bio-rational inventories which rely upon ecologi- dictions about which marine species will yield economi- cal evidence of inter-specific chemical interactions, and cally valuable chemicals are probably no longer valid. If ethnobotanical inventories which gather information on it is true that most, if not all, marine species provide criti- traditional knowledge of useful plants. The choice of in- cal microhabitats for commensal micro-organisms that ventory strategy depends on the market sector, with may produce bioactive compounds, this would imply a nutraceuticals markets relying most heavily on ethno- greater value for all marine organisms, compounding the botany, enzyme and microbes markets utilizing random value of highly diverse ecosystems such as coral reefs. and bio-rational inventories, and pharmaceuticals and The list of useful products derived from marine ge- agrochemicals relying on all three, but emphasizing ran- netic resources is too long to chronicle here. Examples dom and bio-rational approaches. include anticancer compounds, antivirals, antibiotics, anti- Following inventory, the chemicals or genes are ex- fumgals, anti-inflammatory agents and hormonal modu- tracted from the genetic resource, and the extracts are lators (for reviews see Flam 1994; Wright and McCarthy screened with laboratory tests known as biological assays 1994). Marine genetic resources have yielded industrial or "bioassays" to detect the desired biological activity. 178 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling Table 12.1. Estimated global sales from existing markets for products derived from genetic resources. The market sectors highlighted use variable percentages of genetic resources as starting material (i.e., approximately 40% for pharmaceuticals; 100% for agricultural seeds, nutraceuticals, enzymes and microbes). Estimated global Market sector sales (billion USS) Source Pharmaceuticals 256 Scrip (1996) Pesticides 47 Burrill and Lee (1993); Moffat (1993); World Bank (1991) Agricultural seeds 13 Van Gaasbeek et al. (1994) (commercial sales) Nutraceuticals 12.4 Brevoort (1996); Yuan and Hsu (1996) (herbal products, phytomedicines) Cosmetics 6 Niebling (1996) (skin care products) Industrial enzymes 1.6 Stroh (1998) Industrial microbes 0.68 Perez (1995) Biotechnology enzymes 0.6 New York Times (1993) Bioassays are used to guide the identification process until In-licensing. By contrast, in-licensing entails acquir- a pure enzyme or microbial strain or chemical compound ing the rights to valuable chemicals, genes or microbes (called a "lead compound") is isolated. Further cornmer- which have been previously identified by an independ- cial R&D may involve expensive animal and/or volun- ent research group. Large R&D companies may in- tary human testing. license promising research material from other firms or from non-profit research institutes, including univer- Three Strategies for Research Collaboration sities. In many developed countries, it is now common for universities to have specialized offices of technology Because genetic resources research and development en- transfer staffed by negotiators familiar with business tails substantial financial risk to private companies seek- contracts and intellectual property law. Technology ing to develop commercial products, many firms seek out transfer specialists actively seek private sector com- research collaborations as a risk reducing strategy to max- panies willing to in-license basic research discoveries, imize their ability to discover promising new chemicals for an agreed on fee. or genes. Three strategies-outsourcing, in-licensing, and * Joint venture partnering. A third business strategy in- joint venture partnering-are employed. volves the creation ofjoint ventures. Typically, a genetic - Outsourcing. Outsourcing entails contracting with pri- resources joint venture partnership would involve one pr- company in a developed country and one in a biodiver- vate organizations or individuals to supply certain value- adding services, such as sample collection, extraction, siv source country. Joint ventures involve shared fi- and bioassay. An entire industry has evolved to supply nancial risks and the proportional sharing of revenue the outsourcing needs of large companies engaged in or technology. Note that strong intellectual property genetic resources R&D, involving suppliers such as protection is usually necessary to encourage Joint ven- natural products libraries, botanical garden collectors, ture development, particularly when technology trans- oceanographic research institutes, academic research- fer is inherent to the partnership (Mansfield 1995). ers, and specialized companies offering bioassay serv- Benefit Sharing Mechanisms and ices. Many of the highly publicized biodiversity pros- pecting contracts negotiated in recent years between private firms and research institutes or NGOs in biodi- It is customary to define all the obligations of research versity rich developing countries are examples of partners through prior negotiation utilizing legally bind- outsourcing by large R&D companies. ing research contracts or material transfer agreements Incorporating Genetic Resource Utilization into ICZM-Policies and Institutions in Jamaica 179 (MTAs; Barton and Siebeck 1994; Gollin 1995; Putterman of value added by the provider. Some genetic resources 1996). Numerous mechanisms for compensation exist: projects incorporate a benefit sharing mechanism with local communities by sharing royalties using a trust *Rentalfees. It is customary to charge a rental fee (also fund known as up-front or guaranteed compensation) for the use of value-added genetic resources research mate- Sourcingandjointventureagreements. Sourcingagree- rial to private firms engaged in product development. ments made directly with developing countries enable Chemical or biochemical extracts of inventoried genetic poor rural populations in these countries to grow high resources represent the lowest end of the value-added value cash crops for processing into such commercial chain, renting for tens to hundreds of dollars each. The products as phytomedicines, cosmetics, pharmaceu- value of extracts with a positive result on a good ticals, and agrochemicals. Joint venture development bioassay may increase two to ten-fold, and so on. of these commercial products from genetic resources allows private companies in the biodiversity source *Rural employment. Some genetic resources projects cutyt akttepoutrgoal,gnrtn feature collaborations with integrated conservation and potntiy large ree st rea nontri tingt development projects (ICDPs) to employ rural people industrial development. as biodiversity collectors or "parataxonomists". Some projects also feature profit sharing with local commu- nities through trust funds as a way to generate incen- Relevant International Treaties tive measures for conservation. Several treaties contain provisions relevant to the utiliza- * Licensing fees. Developing country research institutes tion of genetic resources, in particular the Convention on that have patented research material, novel uses or pro- Biological Diversity. This treaty, plus relevant provisions cesses can charge up-front licensing fees to R&D firms of the Convention on the Law of the Sea and the World willing to in-license these products for commercial de- Trade Organization (WTO) Agreement, are briefly re- velopment. viewed below. * International technology transfer. Technology trans- . Convention on Biological Diversity. Article One of the fer to developing countries enables these countries to Convention on Biological Diversity describes its three generate value-adding information from genetic re- objectives as "the conservation of biological diversity, sources on their own, stimulating economic activity. the sustainable use of its components, and the fair and Transfer of proprietary bioassays is one valuable option, equitable sharing of benefits arising out of the utiliza- as most developing countries generally lack the latest, tion of genetic resources." The rationale for the third most efficient and cost-effective biotechnology to dis- objective is to create economic incentives to conserve cover new products with valuable biological activities. biodiversity. Article 15 highlights the "sovereign rights" * Tropical disease research. An intriguing area for tech- of parties over genetic resources, stating that govem- nology transfer is the field of tropical disease research, ments have the right to regulate access to these resources consistently underfunded despite some 600 million cases on "mutually agreed terms" and with "prior informed world-wide (Gibbons 1992). Genetic resources can pro- consent". Article 15 seems to treat genetic resources vide new therapeutics, such as the drug ivermectin, a as valuable national resources, akin to oil reserves or fungal compound that has helped prevent some 1.5 mil- mineral deposits. This marks a significant departure lion cases of river blindness in Sahelian Africa (World from previous concepts of genetic resources, which have Bank 1993b). Given that some 80% of the world's pop- tended to treat these resources as the "common herit- ulation makes use of traditional medicine (Famsworth age of mankind". Other relevant issues covered by the et al. 1985), the opportunity exists to utilize new convention include access to technology, including pro- bioassay technology to evaluate the efficacy of these prietary technology and biotechnology (Articles 16 and treatments to facilitate the development of new low cost 19), and knowledge pertaining to traditional uses of phytomedicines for the poor (Iwu 1994). genetic resources (e.g., ethnobotanical knowledge of * Deferred or contingent compensation. Most commer- the use of medicinal plants). cial firms prefer to lower the financial risk of R&D by * United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. The deferring a portion of compensation. There are several United Nations (UN) Convention on the Law of the mechanisms for doing this, including royalties, which Sea specifically addresses marine scientific research is- are a percentage of revenues on final products. Mile- sues, with implications for coastal areas including the stone payments are lumpsum payments made upon the continental shelf and other areas comprising Exclusive attainment of important regulatory milestones during Economic Zones (EEZs). The Law of the Sea treaty the product development process, such as patenting, states that coastal states shall grant their consent for regulatory approval to commence human clinical tri- marine scientific research projects by other states or als, or successful completion of these trials. Like rental competent international organizations in their EEZs or fees, contingent compensation increase with the amount on their continental shelf, but that coastal states may 180 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling withhold consent to the conduct of a project if that Ministry of Foreign Affairs project is of direct significance for the exploration and Officially, all requests from abroad for access to Jamaican exploitation of natural resources, whether living or non- biological resources, for purposes of scientific research, living (Articles 246.3 and 246.5a). boola eore,frproe fslnli eerh are required to be made through the Ministry of Foreign Based on these two treaties, some governments are Affairs. The Ministry in turn refers such requests to the exploring options to regulate access to marine natural NRCA for the issuing ofperrmits. The Ministry of Foreign products found in EEZs. Requiring marine research ex- Affairs has jurisdiction over the EEZ, and will be devel- peditions to negotiate contracts or MTAs when applying oping a new policy on ICZM. As part of this process, the for marine collection permits is one relatively simple Ministry has proposed the creation of an interdisciplinary policy measure that would allow developing countries to Council on Ocean and Coastal Zone Management. benefit from marine genetic resources R&D. This strat- egy is discussed later in this chapter. World Trade Organization Agreement. The Trade-Re- The newly created Ministry of Commerce and Technol- lated Intellectual Property subagreement (TRIPs) to the ogy oversees the National Commission on Science and WTO Agreement calls for parties to adopt a wide range Technology, an interdisciplinary scientific body which of intellectual property right (IPR) regimes, including advises government on relevant issues. The Ministry is patents, plant breeders rights, and trade secrets. Devel- charged with promoting private sector development and oping country parties are allowed a grace period, long- technology transfer in Jamaica. est for the least developed countries, for implementing Ministry of Environment and Housing new IPR legislation. TRIPs does not make explicit ref- erence to the rights of indigenous and local communi- The Ministry of Environment and Housing coordinates ties, although it does allow parties to develop suigeneris closely with the NRCA over biodiversity issues. The (novel) plant variety protection, which some have in- Ministry has created a new Sustainable Development terpreted as providing an opportunity to recognize rights Council which draws upon a wide range of stakeholders to traditional knowledge regarding, for example, tradi- including government, the private sector, NGOs, acade- tional landraces comprising subsistence farmners' crops. mia, and labor. The Ministry also participates in drafting environmental regulations and in implementing inter- Review of Relevant national environmental treaties. Jamaican Institutions and Policies Natural Resources Conservation Authority The NRCA is the primary implementing agency of such Currently, there are no Jamaican policies to regulate ac- environmental treaties as the Convention on International cess to genetic resources, or even to recognize these as Trade in Endangered Species (CITES) and the Conven- valuable material. The NRCA Act of 1991 does give au- tion on Biological Diversity. Created by the NRCA Act thority to the Natural Resources Conservation Authority of 1991, the NRCA has the power to delegate responsi- to regulate use of natural resources, as well as the author- bility for managing protected areas to NGOs. The NRCA ity to require permits for various kinds of prescribed uses, has jurisdiction over marine natural resources manage- but genetic resources uses are not specified. A review of ment of submerged coastal lands. The NRCA also issues Jamaican institutions is presented below. Overall, there permits for the import or export of species listed under appeared to be good appreciation of the value of private CITES appendices. The NRCA has created the CITES investment in genetic resources development as a tool for Scientific Authority, an interdisciplinary advisory body economic development and biodiversity conservation. comprised of scientists and conservationists, which ad- Institutional strengths useful for designing and implement- vises the NRCA on the granting of permits for the import ing genetic resources policy are highlighted. or export of listed species. Draft amendments to the Wildlife Protection Act cur- The Government of Jamaica rently under consideration would grant the NRCA the power to regulate all scientific research with Jamaican Office of the Prime Minister biological resources. A permit mechanism is now under The Office of the Prime Minister does not regulate scien- consideration. On 9 February 1998, the NRCA took an tific research directly. However, the National Commis- administrative decision to require all scientists, foreign sion on Science and Technology (see below) is chaired and domestic, to submit a "Wildlife Application Form" by the Prime Minister himself. to the Authority at least five weeks in advance of any Incorporating Genetic Resource Utilization into ICZM-Policies and Institutions in Jamaica 181 scientific research on Jamaican flora and fauna species. Sciences, both of which possess expertise in marine tax- The application is in the form of a questionnaire, allow- onomy. The Department of Life Sciences includes a ing the NRCA to "maintain an efficient monitoring and marine invertebrate collection in the process of being inventory data base for living biological resources". catalogued, with at least 2,000 specimens representing over 250 species of coastal and deep ocean organisms. Mariculture expertise also exists within the departments, Under the Ministry of Agriculture are two government with current experiments focusing on tilapia aquaculture. agencies that may be relevant to the regulation of genetic The Department of Chemistry employs natural prod- resources utilization. The Fisheries Division has juris- ucts chemists and is equipped with most, although not diction over management of marine natural resources in all, laboratory equipment necessary for purification and the water column, but not on submerged lands. A permit structural determination of biologically active secondary is required from the Fisheries Division for harvesting of metabolites. A Biotechnology Centre also exists within these resources, mainly commercial fish species. The the School of Medicine, with expertise in microbiology Forest Department has jurisdiction over natural resources and tissue culture. Technology transfer expertise also management on public lands, including forest reserves. exists within the university through the Office of Planning Note that jurisdiction over natural resources management of the Vice Chancellor's Office. An attorney is available within protected areas, whose management has been del- there to provide advice on contracts and MTAs, includ- egated by the NRCA to NGOs, is uncertain and in need ing such issues as copyrights, patents, and royalties. of clarification. Discovery Bay Marine Laboratory Commissioner of Lands The Discovery Bay Marine Laboratory, the main field The Commissioner of Lands, a quasi-private corporation, research station overseen by the Department of Marine owns land rights to all Crown (public) lands, including Sciences, is equipped for underwater sampling and pos- forest reserves, and has the sole power to dispose of or sesses a wet laboratory through which sea water is pumped acquire such land through sale or lease. Although private continuously for live organism experiments. A small dry property rights are well defined in Jamaica, community laboratory contains basic chemistry equipment. The ma- land and/or resource tenure does not exist. The sole ex- rine lab is used primarily by visiting scientists and their ceptions to this are the special community land rights students from around the world. Adequate lab space ex- defined by the 1739 Maroon treaties that established two ists to set up a small marine microbial culture project in special reserves for these communities, the descendants the wet laboratory. of freed slaves who fought British colonizers, in eastern and westem Jamaica. ~~~~Institute of Jamaica and western Jamaica. The Institute of Jamaica contains a large number of taxo- Ministry of Industry, Investment and Commerce nomic collections, and it currently serves as the scientific The Industry Section of the Ministry of Industry, Invest- focal point for Jamaica to the Convention on Biological ment and Commerce processes patent applications in Diversity. Jamaica for technical examination by other agencies. Existing intellectual property right mechanisms include Non-Government Organizations patents, trademarks, industrial designs and copyrights. No formal trade secrets law exists, nor are there plant variety protection laws. Some 3,000 patents have been granted The Jamaica Conservation and Development Trust's in Jamaica, and about 80 to 100 patent applications are (JCDT) three-fold mission involves public education and filed annually, although the overwhelming majority of environmental advocacy, as well as protected areas man- these are filed by foreign companies seeking pharmaceu- agement. The JCDT manages the National Parks Trust, a tical patents to prevent intellectual piracy (the unauthor- trust fund which covers the partial operating expenses of ized manufacture of proprietary products) in Jamaica. the Blue and John Crow Mountains National Park. This park is also managed by the JCDT under an agreement Academia with the NRCA. The JCDT identified the major threats to the Blue and John Crow Mountains area as subsistence University of the West Indies at Mona agriculture on marginal lands (primarily steep and easily Relevant academic departments at the UWI include the erodible slopes), as well as the related problem of squat- Centre for Marine Sciences and the Department of Life ters' settlements on park land, 182 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling Montego Bay Marine Park Trust Genetic Resources Policy Recommendations The Montego Bay Marine Park (MBMP) Trust manages the MBMP on behalf of the NRCA (see Chapter 2). As is The development of marine genetic resources into new the case with the JCDT, the Trust's management rights commercial products can be a powerful tool for conser- and responsibilities have not been well defined by the vation and economic development. The following policy NRCA, such that, for example, the right of the Trust to recommendations are intended to incorporate the man- experiment with community resource tenure is uncertain. agement of marine genetic resources into ICZM planning The MBMP Trust has identified the major threats to the in Jamaica. Because the utilization of both marine and coral reef and adjoining Bogue Lagoon in Montego Bay terrestrial genetic resources involves many common tech- as overfishing by artisanal fishers, as well as land based niques and legal issues, the policy recommendations are sources of marine pollution (primarily untreated sewage intended to regulate the utilization of both marine and and a high silt load deposited into the bay by the Montego terrestrial genetic resources. River and adjacent gullies; see Chapters I and 2). Obligations and Assumptions National Environmental Societies Trust The National Environmental Societies Trust (NEST) is a In designing a set of genetic resources policy options for coalitio of 26 active local NGOs in Jamaica which serves Jamaica, it is necessary to incorporate the following ob- coaltio of2 acive oca NGO inJamaca hichseres Iigations under relevant intemnational treaties to which as a forum for debate, education and environmental action. NEST is comprised of three "focus groups" concemed Jamaica is a party: with sustainable community development, ecosystems Convention on Biological Diversity management, and public education. Many NGOs ex- - Create incentive measures to promote conservation and pressed great interest in possible applications of genetic sustainable use of biodiversity (Article 11); resources, especially high value herbal products such as - Promote sovereign rights over biodiversity, including essential oils and botanical extracts, to the development genetic resources (Articles 3 and 15. 1); of community enterprises. * Ensure the fair and equitable sharing of benefits arising out of the utilization of genetic resources (Articles 1 Private Sector and 15.7) or out of the utilization of knowledge, inno- vations and practices of indigenous and local commu- Myers, Fletcher and Gordon nities (Article 8j), a.k.a. "traditional knowledge"; A private sector law firm specializing in corporate clients, . Regulate access to genetic resources based upon mutu- Myers, Fletcher and Gordon employs several attomeys ally agreed terms (Article 15.4) and upon prior informed with a strong interest in environmental matters and rel- consent (Article 15.5); evant expertise in intellectual property and contract law. . Create a mechanism to facilitate access to technology, These personnel expressed a willingness to participate in including that which is relevant to the conservation and genetic resources policy-making and its implementation. sustainable use of biological diversity, as well as bio- technology that makes use of genetic resources (Arti- Jamaica Promotions Corporation (JamPro) cles 16 and 19); and, JamPro is a quasi-private corporation that promotes eco- . Encourage cooperation between government authori- nomic development in Jamaica, including developing ties and the private sector in developing methods for export markets and encouraging new private investment. the sustainable use of biological resources (Article 1 Oe). JamPro has a Chemical Division which assists in such UN Convention on the Law of the Sea markets as minerals and chemicals, bottled water, herbal teas and other herbal products. * Develop a mechanism to grant or withhold consent for marine scientific research projects by other states or Federated Pharmaceuticals Ltd. competent international organizations in the EEZ or on Federated Pharmaceuticals Ltd. is setting up a produc- the continental shelf, wherein consent can be withheld tion line for herbal products under its Natural Products if that project is of direct significance for the explora- tion and exploitation of natural resources, whether liv- Division. Products to be manufactured include essential ing or non-living (Articles 246.3 and 246.5a). oils, extracts, tinctures and gums. Aside from technical expertise in marketing and product development, the com- Additional Assumptions pany also possesses a small quality control laboratory for The foregoing necessary obligations are insufficient, in- microbial testing and dosage standardization. sofar as they do not take account of the effect that policy- Incorporating Genetic Resource Utilization into ICZM-Policies and Institutions in Jamaica 183 making will have on private sector activities. Additional negotiation of contracts involving a transfer of genetic assumptions employed herein are summarized as follows: resources or traditional knowledge, it will be neces- * Private investment in genetic resources utilization can sary to create rights to both the tangible and intangi- yield benefits, some of which can be distributed as ble (intellectual property) manifestations of these. public goods if properly channeled by government. 3. Develop prior informed consent procedures. In order Examples of public goods include local and national to give the legal owners of rights to genetic resources incentives for biodiversity conservation, opportunities and traditional knowledge a means to control use of for technology transfer, development of local (includ- these resources, it will be necessary to devise a prior ing community based) industries, and so on. informed consent mechanism to be used in the nego- • Policy-making should avoid creating disincentives to tiation of mutually agreed terms for the utilization of private sector investment in genetic resources utiliza- genetic resources. tion. Strong disincentives to investment imply a large 4. Create a national benefit sharingformula. A national opportunity cost to Jamaica in terms of lost access to formula to convert a portion of monetary income de- private capital and to sophisticated biotechnology nec- rived from new product development into public goods essary to develop high value products from genetic is necessary to ensure fair and equitable sharing of resources. benefits from genetic resources utilization. * Policy-making should encourage negotiations among private parties to the maximum extent possible. Private First Model Component: Regulate Access to Genetic party negotiations (as opposed to centralized negotia- Resources Up-Front with Permits and Contracts tions between private parties and the Government of Jamaica) increase opportunities for creative deal- * Because there are no internationally recognized proto- making, enhancing opportunities to capture the benefits cols on rights to genetic resources and traditional knowl- of genetic resources utilization. Allowing private party edge, it is necessary to define rights to these resources negotiations also creates an incentive to foreign invest- by requiring a collector or scientist to sign a contract ment. before samples are collected or exported. • A genetic resources policy should be simple and trans- * Contractual agreements have been used by both the parent, involve minimal bureaucracy, and provide easy biotechnology industry and academia to define rights mechanisms for compliance. to unpatentable biological material and "know-how". These contracts can be modified and applied to genetic Basic Components of Model resources and traditional knowledge to define rights and Genetic Resources Legislation obligations of parties involved in collaborative research, including benefit sharing obligations. Based on the foregoing obligations and assumptions, the . The issuing of biodiversity collection permits should following policy recommendations are intended to allow be made contingent upon the signing of legally binding a developing country such as Jamaica to fulfill obliga- contracts. tions under the Convention on Biological Diversity and It is recommended that the Government of Jamaica the Convention on the Law of the Sea. The overall strat- adopt a regulation requiring organizations that issue per- egy guarantees benefit sharing and enhances community mits to ensure that an approved research agreement or rights and national sovereignty while avoiding large dis- MTA is signed by both provider and recipient of genetic incentives to private sector investment. Biodiversity con- resources or traditional knowledge prior to issuing per- servation projects and protected area managers can adopt mits. These agreements describe rights and obligations regulations based on these components as well. of providers and recipients of biological material being Summary of Policy Model transferred for scientific research or commercial devel- opment (Gollin 1995). Contracts can also be adapted to 1. Regulate access to genetic resources up-front with per- dfn omnt ihst eore rtaiinlkoi mitsandcontact. Beaus thre ae n intmaton- define community rights to resources or traditional knowl- mits and contracts. Because there are no internation- edethlaerhouhardesctsmhnimsd- ally recognized protocols on rights to genetic resources edge, the latter through a trade secrets mechanism as de- and traditional knowledge, it is necessary to define scribed below. Research contracts adapted to this purpose rights to these resources by contract before samples incorporate several basic features, including definition of are collected or exported. Permits should be issued ownership of the rights to the collected genetic resources only after approving contracts. or traditional knowledge, terms and conditions of the 2. Establish sui generis (novel) rights to tangible prop- transfer of the collected resources, and compensation for erty and traditional knowledge. In order to define the transferred material (for examples, see AUTM 1995; who has the right to participate in and benefit from the Downes et al. 1993; Putterman 1996). 184 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling Link the Approval of Biodiversity Collection Permits be made valid by a third signature provided by the Chair to the Negotiation of Legally Binding Contracts of this Authority. All contractual agreements would be * Many developing countries already have a permit subject to the same national benefit sharing formula to mechanism in place for approving biodiversity collec- ensure equitable distribution of monetary benefits. tion or export. In these countries, it is probably easiest to require that a signed contract be approved by the Guarantee Revenue Sharing Through government before issuing a biodiversity collecting or Contractual Means export permit. * Research agreements or material transfer agreements * Even in the case of academic collecting, it is important should be employed to define sharing of benefits gen- to require a collecting permit and a research agreement. erated by development of genetic resources or tradi- Many academic natural products research groups en- tional knowledge, including monetary benefits. gage in "basic" research on collected biodiversity speci- . Contracts adapted to this purpose should incorporate mens, but retain the right to transfer interesting discov- several basic features, including definition of owner- eries to the private sector at a later date for commercial ship of the rights to the collected genetic resources or evaluation and product development. traditional knowledge, terms and conditions of the trans- • However, if biodiversity collecting is intended solely fer of the collected resources (including permitted uses), for educational or basic research purposes, with no pos- and compensation for the transferred material. sibility of commercial application, it is unnecessary to Two types of contracts, research agreements and stringently regulate this activity.g MTAs, are recommended (see Box 12.1 for a summary of The recommended genetic resources regulation should contractual terms). Research agreements are intended to give legal authority to each permit issuing organization define a research collaboration between Jamaican organi- to sign genetic resources contracts on behalf of the Gov- zations and foreign for-profit research partners or aca- emnment of Jamaica. Some draft contracts should be re- demic partners engaged in research with clear commer- viewed by an independent Genetic Resources Advisory cial applications, such as natural products chemistry. It is Authority comprised of stakeholders and representing recommended that draft research agreement be negoti- multidisciplinary expertise relevant to the type of genetic ated and signed by the foreign recipient of genetic re- resources collection in question. It is not necessary to sources and by the Jamaican provider of these resources. create a standing committee for this purpose. Volunteers This draft research agreement should then be passed to should be called up as needed. Permit issuing organiza- the Jamaica Genetic Resources Contracts Review Com- tions should be informed that under no circumstances are mittee (described below) for review and final approval. they to issue collection permits before an approved con- MTAs are simple contracts to be used when substantial tract has been signed. research collaboration is not anticipated. The MTA would Genetic resources contracts should be available for be best used when a Jamaican provider organization is use not only by the public sector, but by Jamaican private only facilitating access for non-commercial use such as organizations as well, including NGOs, private enterprises, academic collecting for taxonomy or ethnobotany, or for and even rural communities or ethnic groups. In order to such routine purposes as teaching students. Their pur- enter into a valid contract, it will be necessary to identify pose is to define permitted uses of biodiversity taken out a foreign recipient of the genetic resources or traditional of Jamaica, and to reserve Jamaica's right to share in any knowledge, and a Jamaican provider of these material or benefits so derived, if any. It is recommended that MTAs information. Both provider and recipient would sign the not be subject to the same scrutiny as research agreements. contract to make it a legally binding document. It would not be necessary to obtain independent review Should a recipient and provider sign a contract which by the Genetic Resources Advisory Authority All MTAs calls for collection of traditional knowledge from Jamai- byothe GeneticaResourcesyAdvisoryeAuthority.cAllAMTAs should be pre-approved by the Genetic Resources Advi- can herbalists, it will be necessary to obtain local prior sory Authority. informed consent from the relevant herbalists before col- lection can proceed. These concepts of rights to tradi- The Role of Government in tional knowledge, as well as prior informed consent, are Contract Review and Approval discussed below. * It is recommended that governments not play a direct All organizations, public and private, would be required role in private party negotiations, but rather retain the to submit draft signed contracts to the proposed independ- right to review draft contracts, and either approve them, ent and multidisciplinary Genetic Resources Advisory reject them, or return them for modification, providing Authority for approval. These draft signed contracts would detailed comments and suggestions. Incorporating Genetic Resource Utilization into ICZM-Policies and Institutions in Jamaica 185 Box 12.1. Basic components of genetic resource material transfer agreements. The following provisions are derived from published material transfer agreements (MTAs), which have been adapted for genetic resources utilization (Putterman 1996). Taken together, these comprise basic terms for a generic genetic resources research contract: * Genetic resources are defined as tangible property, and ownership of this property is according to land use. Samples gathered from Crown land are publicly owned, samples from private land are owned by the landowner, and samples from communal land are owned by the community. * Value-added research materials are defined as intellectual property according to inventorship. * An option is provided to define intellectual property rights to traditional knowledge by transferring tradi- tional knowledge confidentially as trade secrets. * An option is provided to allow representatives of indigenous or other rural communities to sign on directly as parties to the MTAs, and a procedure for obtaining prior informed consent is outlined. * Monetary and non-monetary compensation to the provider for supplying genetic resources or value-added research material to the recipient is specified. * The recipient is free to conduct research and development with transferred material and to acquire intel- lectual property rights to inventions. Ownership of intellectual property is awarded according to inventorship, and shared inventorship is possible. * Deferred compensation to the provider upon commercial development of the recipient's intellectual prop- erty derived from the transferred material is specified, including royalties and sourcing agreements. Mon- etary benefits are distributed through a trust fund mechanism where specified. It is recommended that governments create an independ- single government agency in Jamaica has the technical entmultidisciplinarycommitteeto review draft contracts, expertise to perform this role, it is recommended that the because it is highly unlikely that a single government government create an independent multidisciplinary com- agency has the technical expertise to perform this role. mittee to review draft research contracts. The NRCA is * This proposed Genetic Resources Advisory Authority the logical agency to coordinate contractual review, given should include, as appropriate, scientists from relevant its role in issuing biodiversity collection permits, although disciplines, ministerial staff, a contracts attorney, an this coordination role might also be appropriately placed NGO, and a representative with expertise in business, within the Ministry of gm pp p y witinth MiisryofCommerce and Technology. A * The committee would only convene as needed to re- view collecting applications, keeping regulatory costs prtecdentr wexssf inepNR derew uo ru- low. Members would also pledge their availability to latory decisions, whereby the NRCA draws upon outside act as advisors to projects under negotiation, to fulfill scientific expertise for making decisions on the granting government's need to maintain a predictable and trans- of export or import permits for endangered species, uti- parent approach to regulation. lizing the CITES scientific authority described previously. * Members of the Genetic Resources Advisory Author- Within the Government of Jamaica, a precedent al- ity would be required to sign confidentiality agreements. ready exists for linking the review of draft contracts to * Depending on the availability of technical expertise, it licenses or permits. As part of a utility privatization strat- may be advisable that the government publish a set of egy, the Office of Utility Regulation grants licenses to minimum acceptable terms for contracts to simplify the private entities wishing to function as electric utilities. process of contract negotiations. The Office of Utility Regulation requires that draft con- It is strongly recommended that government not play tracts defining the terms under which electricity will be a direct role in private party negotiations. Rather, govern- sold to consumers be submitted by applicants for approval ment should retain the right to review draft private party prior to the granting of a utility license. Contracts are contracts, and either approve or reject them (rejection reviewed with consumer protection criteria in mind. should be accompanied by a detailed explanation and sug- The Genetic Resources Advisory Authority should gestions for renegotiating acceptable terms). Because no provide appropriate multidisciplinary expertise to apply 186 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling consistent and independent criteria to review draft research For example, the Discovery Bay Marine Laboratory agreements. Upon receipt of a draft research agreement, hosts a large number of students and foreign scientists the coordinator of this Authority would contact one ex- every year, providing research and teaching facilities for pert in each of the following areas to review the contract: a variety of basic research activities. It would be highly * A scientific representative from the relevant discipline impractical to require every visiting scientist or student (e.g., natural products chemistry, botany, agriculture, to apply for a separate permit with the government. Rather, ethnobotany, etc.); the laboratory should negotiate a blanket agreement which * A representative from the permit issuing organization would require every visiting scientist and student to sign in Jamaica; a simple MTA forbidding any commercial use of collected * A lawyer with expertise in contracts; material, or transfers to third parties for this purpose. * A person representing the organization withjurisdiction A Note on Compliance with over lands covered by the proposed genetic resources Genetic Resources Regulations collection; It is impossible to prevent dishonest people from smug- * If the land in question is being managed with the help gling genetic resources samples out of Jamaica. The sug- of an NGO, it would be appropriate to invite a repre- gested regulations presented here are intended to give a sentative of this NGO; and, simple framework for those seeking to comply with Ja- * A representative of private enterprise in Jamaica. maican law. For those who intend to break the law, these Suggested criteria by which the Genetic Resources regulations provide the Govemment of Jamaica the legal Advisory Authority should evaluate draft research agree- standing to sue in a court of law. With the advent of elec- ments include the following: tronic databases accessible by the internet, it is not diffi- - Does the agreement clearly define the proposed research cult to monitor global patent systems. Because patent collaboration? offices require full disclosure of inventions, it is possible • Are rights to the transferred material and to subsequent to rln periodic checks on patents in the industrialized derivatives or inventions clearly defined? world, perhaps in collaboration with intemational NGOs * In particular, and only if applicable, are community or legal firms willing to provide pro bono services. This rights to tangible property or traditional knowledge can be done very inexpensively, without the need to cre- clearly defined? ate costly databases and hire dedicated staff. • If traditional knowledge is to be transferred, does the agreement include a trade secrets mechanism such as a Second Model Component: confidentiality agreement? Establish Sui Generis (Novel) Rights to D Does the agreement adequately describe how commu- Tangible Property and Traditional Knowledge nity prior informned consent was orwillbe*provided? * In order to define who has the right to participate in * Does the agreement define how monetary or other ben- and benefit from the negotiation of contracts involving efits will be shared? a transfer of genetic resources or traditional knowledge, * Does the agreement include a reporting mechanism? it will be necessary to create rights to both the tangible and intangible (intellectual property) manifestations of Blanket Agreements for Routine Teaching and these. Research Purposes It is strongly recommended that governments refrain Because some collecting activities are purely academic, from nationalizing genetic resources, in order to make including collecting done for teaching purposes, it is rec- room for the creation of local rights, including commu- ommended that the Government of Jamaica offer a sim- nity rights. Local resource tenure systems are neces- ple variation on a MTA which would explicitly forbid the sary for the creation of local incentives for sustainable recipient from using the material for commercial purposes, biodiversity management. or from transferring the material to third parties without In order to define who has the right to participate in written consent. It is recommended that the government and benefit from the negotiation of research contracts negotiate blanket agreements with academic institutions involving a transfer of genetic resources or traditional to simplify routine transfers of genetic resources for teach- knowledge, it will be necessary to create rights to both ing and research purposes. These blanket agreements the tangible and intangible (intellectual property) man- would allow the use of pre-approved MTAs without the ifestations of these. Currently there are no regulations in need for further government review. Jamaica defining rights to genetic resources and tradi- Incorporating Genetic Resource Utilization into ICZM-Policies and Institutions in Jamaica 187 tional knowledge. Tangible property includes the physi- Treat Local Inventions and Traditional Knowledge cal embodiment of genetic resources and value-added as Intellectual Property research material derived from these. Intellectual prop- * "Intellectual property" for this purpose refers to tradi- erty in this case refers to traditional knowledge rather tional knowledge, innovations and practices, rather than than conventional notions of intellectual property such to conventional notions of intellectual property such as as industrial inventions. In defining genetic resources industrial inventions. rights, it is strongly recommended that the Government * Numerous legal mechanisms to recognize and create of Jamaica refrain from nationalizing these rights, in or- rights to traditional knowledge have been proposed; der to make room for the creation of local rights, includ- however, many of these posit costly bureaucracy to track ing community rights. A large and accumulating body of registered "inventions", or they create a legal basis for evidence suggests that local resource tenure systems are ownership which would be impossible to verify against evidncesuggststha locl rsoure tnur sysemsare fraudulent claims. For this reason, it is recommended necessary for the creation of local incentives for sustain- to'lmt ction of tritional k ed omtatwhc to limit protection of tradifional knowledge to that which able resource management (for example, see BCN 1997; is attainable through a modification of industrial trade Posey 1996). secrets legislation. Genetic Resources as Tangible Property * Modification of industrial trade secrets legislation would give communities the right to maintain traditional * Tangible property includes the physical embodiment of knowledge as confidential "trade secrets". genetic resources and simple research material derived from these, such as extracts. * A confidentiality clause could be written into research agreements definingx use of traditional knowledge, - It is necessary to create tangible property rights to ge- whereby the recipient of such knowledge would be netic resources found on public land (such as protected granted the right to use it in research and development areas, submerged lands, etc.), and to define genetic but could not divulge the knowledge publicly. resource rights for private landowners if land can be privately owned. * Should the transferred traditional knowledge yield mar- ketable products, benefit sharing arrangements in the * Community resource rights can be defined for commu- contract would guarantee a premium benefit to the pro- nity land, or for land traditionally occupied by rural viders of the knowledge. communities. aUse of traditional knowledge, confidentially or other- * Even if national law does not recognize community wise, should be linked to a prior informed consent resource rights, it is still possible to define community mechanism rights to genetic resources in a de facto manner by contract. A portion of benefits flowing from genetic Numerous legal mechanisms to recognize and create resources sampled on land adjacent to local com- rights to traditional knowledge have been proposed (for munities can be retumed to these communities accord- example, see Jabbour 1983; Posey 1996; Singh 1996; ing to the terms of the negotiated research agreement Swaminathan 1996). However, many of these proposals or MTA. posit the development of a costly bureaucracy to track The definition of tangible property includes resource registered "inventions", or they create a legal basis for rights to genetic resources found on public land (includ- ownership which would be impossible to verify against ing national parks, forest reserves, all submerged land fraudulent claims. It is recommended that the Govern- including coastal shelves, and other Crown lands), as well ment of Jamaica create a simple sui generis mechanism as genetic resources found on private land and on com- based on trade secret legislation to protect the rights of munity land, such as that owned by Maroon communi- the holders of traditional knowledge. Trade secrets are a ties. Note that creating community rights to the use of form of intellectual property protection, and trade secret genetic resources may prove the single most important legislation is a requirement for signatories to the WTO measure available for creating local conservation incen- Agreement (Barton 1 994b). tives. Although protected area land may be property of Trade secrets are a class of intellectual property which the Crown, it is still possible to define community rights confers the legal right to withhold information on inven- to genetic resources in a defacto manner by contract. In tions. In the United States, a model statute called the Uni- this scenario, a portion of benefits flowing from genetic form Trade Secrets Act has been adopted by a majority of resources sampled on land adjacent to local communities states. Under this legislation, information is eligible for will be returned to these communities according to the trade secret protection if it derives independent economic terms of the negotiated research contract (for example, value from not being generally known and is the subject see Rubin and Fish 1994). of efforts that are reasonable under the circumstances to 188 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling maintain its secrecy. In practice, trade secrecy is attained of Jamaica. Prior informed consent for collection in na- through confidentiality agreements and other contractual tional parks, whose management has been delegated to mechanisms. Information may be "misappropriated" (and local NGOs, should be coordinated by the managing NGO. hence, property rights violated) by either unauthorized It is strongly recommended that managing NGOs enlist use or disclosure of the trade secret or by acquisition of local community opinion when weighing prior informed the trade secret by "improper means", including theft, brib- consent decisions. Implementing a workable prior in- ery, misrepresentation, breach of duty to maintain secrecy, formed consent requirement at the community level may or espionage. be difficult, due to the large number of stakeholders in- It is recommended that the Government of Jamaica volved. There is a critical role for NGOs in facilitating pass a Traditional Trade Secrets Act which confers the prior informed consent decisions by local communities. legal right to withhold information on traditional knowl- It is highly recommended that the Government of Jamaica edge. In this instance, traditional knowledge would be encourage NGOs to become involved in the process of eligible for traditional trade secrets protection if it derived obtaining prior informed consent from local communi- potential economic value in Jamaica from not being gen- ties, and in monitoring subsequent agreements. erally known and if it were the subject of reasonable ef- forts to maintain its secrecy. Herbalists and other tradi- IPrileenfinmea Local Prior Informed Consent Procedure tional knowledge holders who wished to share their knowl- *Local resource tenure, including community resource edge for sustainable use of genetic resources, including tenure, has been shown to create local conservation in- R&D, would have the tight to insist on adding a confi- centives. One way of giving communities the means dentiality clause to relevant research agreements or MTAs. to control resource decisions is to legislate a require- The confidentiality clause, discussed in Box 12.2, would ment for local prior informed consent. treat the transferred traditional knowledge essentially as In practice, implementing a workable prior informed any industrial trade secret, allowing the knowledge pro- consent requirement at the local level may be difficult, vider to retain control over who uses the knowledge and due to the large number of stakeholders involved. There how it is used. is a critical role for NGOs in facilitating prior informed Note that this concept of "traditional trade secrets" consent decisions by local communities. directly clashes with the notion of academic freedom as * National policies on community prior informed consent practiced by, for example, ethnobotanists, whose trade re- could range from actually holding community meet- quires them to publish traditional knowledge in scholarly mngs with all local communities involved to merely post- journals. It will be up to the individual knowledge holders, ing notices in local newspapers or informing local gov- or the wider rural community, to decide whether or not to e.ment or community leaders ofproposed projects and allow academic publication of traditional knowledge. inviting public comment over a specified time period. Although currently there are no industrial trade secrets Regardless of the procedure chosen, the owners or trus- tees of rights to genetic resources or traditional knowl- laws in Jamaca, therevenualcretioni assure given edge should understand the goals of the proposed sus- that Jamaica is a party to the WTO Agreement, which tainable use, including potential development of new requires this under TRIPs. Use of traditional knowledge, products, their rights to tangible or intellectual prop- confidentially or otherwise, should be linked to a prior erty to be transferred, and opportunities to participate informed consent mechanism as described in the follow- in or benefit from the proposed project. ing section. National policies on community prior informed con- sent could range from actually holding community meet- Third Model Component: ings with all local communities involved to merely post- Develop Prior Informed Consent Procedures ing notices in local newspapers or informing local gov- In order to give the legal owners of rights to genetic emnent or community leaders of proposed projects and resources and traditional knowledge a means to control inviting public comment over a specified time period. use of these resources, it will be necessary to devise a Regardless of the procedure chosen, the minimum infor- prior informed consent mechanism to be used in the mation describing proposed genetic resources projects negotiation of "mutually agreed terms" for the utiliza- that is recommended for making prior informed consent tion of genetic resources. decisions is listed in Box 12.2 At the national level, setting up a Genetic Resources Note that creating a local prior informed consent Advisory Authority, as suggested above, would be suffi- requirement for genetic resources sampling may drive cient to ensure prior informed consent of the Government collectors to focus their efforts on Crown lands unencum- Incorporating Genetic Resource Utilization into ICZM-Policies and Institutions in Jamaica 189 Box 12.2. Minimal information necessary for prior informed consent decisions. Responsibilities It is the responsibility of the collector to ensure that this procedure is followed. In the case of traditional knowledge or community genetic resources, all contract negotiations shall include facilitators (e.g., local NGOs) who shall possess the necessary legal and business skills to negotiate fair terms and conditions of the transfer of resources or knowledge on the community's behalf. Information Requirements for Prior Informed Consent The collector shall ensure that the following information is communicated to stakeholders, whether through written or oral means, as appropriate: * The purpose of the proposed research, including plans, if any, for commercial research and development; * The research plan, including options, if any, for participation by stakeholders; * Disclosure of the potential value of transferred resources or knowledge; * Potential outcomes, including the likelihood of commercial success; * Rights available to stakeholders under the law; and, * Options for benefit sharing, including a full description of immediate and deferred or contingent benefits, the use of trust funds to capture monetary benefits, the possibility of in-kind contributions such as medical care, and so on. Confidentiality Both collectors and stakeholders have obligations regarding confidentiality, and collectors shall inform stake- holders of these obligations: * Transferred knowledge may be regarded by stakeholders as their intellectual property. The collector shall inform stakeholders of their right to insist on treating transferred knowledge as confidential trade secrets. If requested to, the collector shall include a confidentiality clause in research contracts or material transfer agreements (MTAs) to ensure trade secret protection. * The collector shall inform stakeholders that all contracts may contain proprietary information and if so, must be treated as confidential by all parties. While local communities shall be privy to details of contrac- tual negotiations, it is recommended that written copies of signed research contracts or MTAs remain only with the collector and with the local facilitator, such as a local NGO. Redacted versions of contracts should be made freely available. Reports and Monitoring Stakeholders shall receive regular research reports, at least every six months, in order to foster trust and to encourage realistic expectations of the possibility of long-term benefits such as the development of commer- cial products. Full Disclosure and Authorized Signatures Full disclosure of how prior informed consent was obtained shall be included as an attachment to all nego- tiated draft research contracts or MTAs. In the case of local communities, this attachment shall include signatures of proper and acknowledged leaders of these communities, indicating that prior informed con- sent was given by said communities and that facilitators, such as local NGOs, were indeed authorized to negotiate research contracts or MTAs on behalf of these communities. This attachment, providing full dis- closure, shall be necessary and sufficient for obtaining a certificate of prior informed consent from the gov- ernment agency issuing collection permits. 190 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling bered by community resource tenure claims, including Up-front monetary compensation in exchange for ac- forest reserves and submerged lands of the coastal shelf. cess to genetic resources is usually not possible with aca- This is anticipated because sampling on such lands would demic collectors. Even for private sector collectors, such require obtaining prior informed consent from only one as pharmaceutical companies, up-front compensation is entity, the government itself or perhaps a managing NGO, usually relatively small. Because it is desirable to en- while in return the collector stands to gain access to a wide courage research collaborations between local scientists range of habitats or species. The alternative, obtaining and foreign organizations, including private companies, prior informed consent from a large number of private it is not recommended that the Government of Jamaica landowners or from (at this point, largely hypothetical) require the sharing of any more than a small percentage managed lands which may have a community resource of up-front income realized by Jamaican collaborators. tenure system in place, could be costly and time consum- For example, in Costa Rica, the National Biodiversity ing by comparison. For this reason, a national benefit Institute (INBio, a private non-profit Costa Rican research sharing formula as described below would be crucial to organization) shares just 10% of its up-front income from ensuring that benefits from genetic resources utilization its bioprospecting contracts with the private sector. The on Crown lands filter back to local communities. money is deposited into a fund specifically earmarked for It is recommended that the government require col- national parks conservation. The remaining 90% is used lectors of traditional knowledge to obtain prior informed to pay the costs associated with INBio's research collabo- consent from individual herbalists before being allowed rations and for capacity building. to collect this knowledge. Herbalists should be given the By contrast, deferred compensation, such as royal- right to insist on signing a confidentiality clause defining ties, can be relatively large and, in any event, royalty their right to transfer their knowledge as confidential trade income is usually provided free and clear of business secrets, and defining benefit sharing arrangements as well expenses (i.e., it is all net income). For this reason, it is under the contract and under the national formula. Note recommended that the Government of Jamaica establish that prior informed consent can be obtained on a case by a national benefit sharing formula which allows the origi- case basis once collection has been approved and com- nal providers of genetic resources or traditional knowl- menced. edge to keep a portion of this income, and sets aside the greatest percentage royalty income for biodiversity con- Fourth Model Component: servation, community economic development, or other Create a National Benefit Sharing Formula government expenses. For example, national regulations might require that 10% of royalty income be due the stake- iAnatmederiona frormulat convera prortio d lofpmoneta i holders who gave their prior informed consent for collec- income derived from new product development into public goods is necessary to ensure fair and equitable tion activities to proceed, 10% be due the providers of the sharing of benefits from genetic resources utilization. genetic resources (i.e., that Jamaican organization that * An ideal revenue sharing arrangement would allow signed the original contract), 40% of the income be due a domestic research partners, including private compa- biodiversity trust fund earmarked to pay for conservation nies, NGOs, and local communities, to keep a portion and sustainable use activities in all protected areas, and of their income in order to maintain incentives for pri- the final 40% be returned to the national treasury for gen- vate investment and innovation, while the remainder is eral govemment expenditures. set aside by government and applied to the creation of public goods. * Developing a set of guidelines or even fixed percent- Genetic Resources Policy Applications ages defining benefits sharing on up-front and deferred income (e.g., royalties on future products) would Scenario Analysis of Applications of Genetic streamline the process of permit approval. Resources Policy Options It is recommended that the Govemment of Jamaica Four scenarios are analyzed for the manner in which the develop a simple national benefit sharing formula that value of genetic resources varies according to different will streamline the process of contract negotiations and policy options. permit approval. For this purpose, it is important to dis- tinguish between the academic and private sector use of Zero Compensation (Status Quo) genetic resources, and between up-front and deferred com- This scenario represents the status quo in Jamaica. Access pensation. to genetic resources, where granted, does not result in Incorporating Genetic Resource Utilization into ICZM-Policies and Institutions in Jamaica 191 compensation to either the people or the Government of or guaranteed compensation in exchange for the transfer Jamaica. While scientists seeking access to Jamaican of genetic resources samples or traditional knowledge. genetic resources are required to complete an NRCA ques- This would be in addition to the contingent compensation tionnaire describing the proposed research, the Wildlife described above. It is not recommended that developing Research Application Form does not function as a research country governments impose an "access fee " on private contract, nor does it define legal claims to collected re- companies or academic researchers seeking genetic re- sources. The government retains only veto power over sources research material. Due to the highly competitive proposed genetic resources projects. nature of genetic resources sourcing, arbitrary access fees, which merely serve to increase the cost of Jamaican ge- Minimal Contingent Compensation (Royalties) netic resources, are likely to price these resources out of In this scenario, the Government of Jamaica would require the market. all applicants for access to genetic resources or traditional It is instead recommended that the Government of knowledge to sign a research contract or MTA guarantee- Jamaica encourage the development of local value-add- ing a royalty payment (contingent compensation) upon ing research services, which could provide biodiversity commercialization of any inventions derived from the samples, or advanced research material derived from these, transferred resources. Royalty claims are a risk free directly to private industry for a fee. Examples of rela- mechanism to share some of the benefits of genetic re- tively low cost and technologically appropriate research sources utilization, in the sense that the provider is not activities, which add significant value to genetic resources, required to invest in research or collecting activities, only include biodiversity inventories (especially plant in- to allow access to the resources. However, royalty pay- ventories), local studies of the efficacy of medicinal and ments allow biodiversity rich source countries to capture aromatic plants, simple techniques for processing plant only a relatively small portion of the total value of genetic samples into botanical extracts, or soil samples into mi- resources. Because the process of research and develop- crobial cultures. "Rental" fees for access to this research ment rarely yields successful commercial products, even material can be in the form of monetary compensation, in the case of the development of new herbal products which would ideally encompass the full costs of collec- andphytomedicines, itis unlikely that this strategy ofnmini- tion and processing plus a margin over and above this. mal contingent compensation will yield any commercial Note that research material can be derived from any source benefits to Jamaica. of genetic resources material, whether from plants, in- Contingent Compensation with Production sects, or microbes. Research material can be quite basic, (Royalties and Sourcing Rights) such as plant extracts, or it can be quite advanced, such as Inthistof Jamaica would an new plant based medicines with actual data derived from In this senario, te Governmnt again clinical trials. The cost of these different forms of re- require all applicants for access to genetic resources or traditional knowledge to sign a research contract or MTA search material to a foreign collaborator will vary accord- th . ing to the amount of value-adding research invested in In this case, the agreement would also require the recipi- the ent to consider Jamaica as the first source of supply of the source country. raw orpocesedmateialforcomercilpo t. Note that value-added genetic resources research raw or processed material for commercial production.... These "sourcing rights" create opportunities for the de- material is difficult to come by, particularly marine velopment of new high value agricultural exports, as well material. Developing the capacity to supply this mate- as local processing industries. For examnple, the US Na- rial to the private sector would provide Jamaican organi- tional Cancer Institute incorporates language on sourcing zations a clear competitive advantage over other sources sourso ction c of genetic resources material. Genetic resources utiliza- rights into itS standard natural products collection con- tract (NCI 1995). This strategy also relies solely upon tion under this regulatory scenario would require a sig- contingent benefits (that is, it relies solely upon the sue- nificant investment to develop the technical ability of pri- cessful development of new commercial products), and vate parties to undertake advanced contractual negotia- as such, this benefit sharing scheme is also unlikely to tions in Jamaica, and to develop the corresponding yield any benefits to Jamaica. technical ability within the Govermnent of Jamaica to review these negotiations. Modest investments in value- Up-Front Compensation for Value-Added Products adding technology would also be required. Several (Rental Fees plus Royalties and Sourcing Rights) bilaterial and multilateral agencies have taken an interest In this scenario, the Government of Jamaica would require in supporting these "bioprospecting" activities in recent all research contracts and MTAs to incorporate up-front years. 192 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling Novel Paradigms for Public and regulations outlined in this paper, foreign scientific or- Private Sector Collaboration in the ganizations, whether private companies or non-profit Sustainable Use of Genetic Resources oceanographic research institutes, would be required to A new paradigm is emerging globally in which bio- contact the relevant government department (e.g., the diversity rich developing countries seek to participate NRCA or the Ministry of Commerce and Technology) to more actively in the development and marketing of new discuss conditions for obtaining a collecting permit. The commercial products derived from natural products. govermment would inform the applicant about current Additionally, awareness among consumers is growing of regulations, including the requirement to obtain prior in- the potential for good business practice to support envi- formed consent from the appropriate stakeholder and to ronmental conservation, international development, and negotiate an approved research agreement or MTA. The the welfare of indigenous peoples. However, policy alone government would also recommend counterpart organi- is insufficient as marketing biological material for ge- zations in Jamaica for assistance with obtaining a permit, netic resources development is a competitive business. and supply a list of suggestions, with UWI among the In order to develop mutually beneficial collaborations, most likely candidates. developing countries must be able to offer genetic re- Assume that collection was planned in a protected area sources and value-adding services to private firms in a (e.g., the Montego Bay Marine Park) and UWI is func- manner which increases the likelihood of finding profit- tioning as the local counterpart organization. To begin able new products, reducing the financial risk involved. the process, UWI would contact the MBMP Trust to ob- Advantages that may attract private firms to develop tain prior informed consent. Depending on the local regu- natural products collaborations with developing countries lations, the MBMP Trust would either give its informed include local knowledge of flora, fauna and habitats, sam- consent directly following discussions on benefit sharing, ple quality, sample resupply, adherence to local regula- or would first hold meetings with local stakeholders to tions, lower business costs, the opportunity to leverage discuss their preferences directly (if collection was planned additional capital, and access to markets. A novel strat- elsewhere within Jamaica's EEZ, UWI would contact the egy to encourage local investment in joint natural prod- NRCA directly to obtain informed consent, because such ucts enterprises in developing countries includes tech- submerged land is administered by this agency). nology franchising, in which a senior firm grants limited UWI would negotiate a research agreement with the rights to a valuable proprietary technology to a small or foreign research organization, consulting with the MBMP medium enterprise in exchange for certain returns gener- in the process to incorporate preferred benefit sharing ated by that technology. Joint venture creation between provisions necessary to obtain their prior informed con- firms is another option. sent. All parties could consult with appropriate members of the Genetic Resources Advisory Authority for advice Two Jamaica Case Studies Revisited on policy requirements at any time. Benefits requested by the MBMP Trust might include Two examples of ongoing and unresolved issues in ge- employment for local fishers as field hands, copies of all netic resources utilization in Jamaica were introduced at taxonomic voucher specimens, sourcing rights, and mon- the start of this chapter. In the following section, these etary benefits such as a share of rental fees (if any) and issues are re-examined in light of the policy recommen- contingent benefits, including royalties, to pay for park dations made above, and alternate outcomes based upon operations or to set up a micro-enterprise fund. The pro- application of the recommendations are explored. portion of monetary income set aside for benefit sharing would be set by law. The MBMP Trust in tum could use Marine Bioprospecting in Jamaican Coastal Waters this income to fund park operations, to set up a commu- Of the half-dozen or so instances of foreign researchers nity micro-enterprise fund, and so on. undertaking widespread collecting of diverse marine spe- When a draft contract has been agreed upon, it would cies for research involving biomedical, agrochemical, and be signed by all parties and submitted to the Genetic Re- cosmetics applications, not a single project involved shar- sources Advisory Authority along with proof of prior in- ing of benefits other than sharing of marine taxonomic formed consent and a completed permit application for voucher specimens with the University of the West Indies. review. The Authority would either approve the contract Future applications for research permits may languish and sign the permit, or reject the contract. Rejection would without a proper policy in place to capture genetic re- be accompanied by a detailed explanation and the oppor- sources benefits. Under the proposed genetic resources tunity to renegotiate the draft agreement. Incorporating Genetic Resource Utilization into ICZM-Policies and Institutions in Jamaica 193 Biotechnology Based Improvement of transfer of any germplasm and commitment of biotech- Jamaican Papaya Germplasm nology research funds, to obtain agreement on the size of The case of the biotechnology research project to develop the royalty charge. Under the proposed genetic resources virus resistant local papaya varieties illustrates well the regulations, this issue would have come up during discus- value of certain kinds of biotechnology to Jamaican agri- sion of the draft MTA submitted by JADF to the Genetic culture. Due to infection with the Papaya Ringspot Virus, Resources Advisory Authority. The genetic resources crop losses in 1994 were 30% to 40%, while 1998 losses regulations would also have allowed the government to have been estimated at 50%. The biotechnology process monitor-and to learn from-the development of this used to develop the new varieties (cloning of the viral highly creative research collaboration. coat protein gene into the plant cells) has, when used on other crop varieties against different plant viruses, reduced yield losses to nearly zero without expensive and toxic chemical inputs used to control the insect vectors which spread the viral infections. The research agreement developed between the Ja- maica Agricultural Development Foundation and Cornell University incorporates a royalty free license for produc- tion for domestic markets. Export production will first require the negotiation of a royalty percentage with Cornell's technology donors, among them Monsanto Cor- poration, DuPont and others. Although the parental lines of the Sunrise Solo variety were obtained from Hawaiian growers, which in turn were derived from growers in Barbados, they would probably fall under the purview of the genetic resources regulations because the lines were subject to some breeding in Jamaica in the early 1980s. Thus, under the proposed genetic resources regulations, JADF would have had to apply to the NRCA for an ex- port permit to export Jamaican papaya germplasm for scientific research. The NRCA in turn would have ap- prised the growers association of its obligation to negoti- ate a MTA with Cornell University. Given that the purpose of the proposed research was to develop virus resistant varieties for use in Jamaica, there was already a clear public good built into this project. Cornell University was willing to sponsor the research, utilizing the proprietary technology licensed to it. Given that neither Cornell nor the technology donor companies intended to claim rights to the transferred papaya variety for private gain, it would not have been appropriate to charge an up-front fee to gain access to the germplasm. Indeed, in this case it is Jamaica that is seeking access to an extraneous resource (i.e., the proprietary virus resist- ance biotechnology). As such, it is appropriate for the technology donors to claim certain contingent benefits on any commercial products developed from this research. The actual agreement negotiated by JADF appears to be quite beneficial to Jamaican growers. However, rather than deferring negotiations on the actual royalty percent- age to be charged Jamaican growers, it is recommended that future negotiations be held up-front, prior to the Chapter 13 Ecological Economic Decision Support Models for Coastal Zone Management in the Developing Tropics-Results, Dissemination, Policy Applications, and Future Directions Kent Gustavson Gustavson Ecological Resource Consulting, Gabriola, BC, Canada Richard M Huber Environmentally and Socially Sustainable Development Sector Management Unit, Latin American and Caribbean Region (LCSES), The World Bank, Washington, DC, USA Coral reef ecosystems throughout the world are in seri- with environmental (including social) goals and are made ous decline, being threatened by both localized anthropo- with the participation of those affected. The purpose of genic stress as well as regional and global phenomena ICZM is to maximize the benefits provided by the coastal such as global warming (Bryant et al. 1998; Hodgson zone and to minimize the conflicts and harmful effects of 1999; Hoegh-Guldberg 1999; Jameson et al. 1995; Wil- activities upon each other, on resources and on the envi- kinson 1998; see Chapter 1). There may be some cause ronment" (World Bank 1996, p.2). Guidelines and pro- for optimism due to the remote locations of many coral cedures have begun to emerge for the development of reefs, the effective management of some, and the poten- ICZM (e.g., Bower et al. 1994; Chua 1993; Clark 1995; tial capacity of these ecosystems to recover (Wilkinson Pernetta and Elder 1993; Sorensen 1997; World Bank 1998), yet it is clear that effective integrated coastal zone 1993a, 1996). management (ICZM) is necessary to help prevent further A critical element in ICZM is the integration-in significant depletion. This final chapter serves to sum- particular, the horizontal integration across economic sec- marize the results of the research presented in this publi- tors and management agencies in the planning and im- cation regarding the development of decision support plementation (e.g., Clark 1995; Sorensen 1997). Coastal models for the management of coral reefs in the develop- activities must be considered jointly because of their ing tropics. The dissemination strategy is outlined and interdependence and expected non-additive cumulative comments are offered regarding potential policy applica- impacts. But how are multiple economic sectors or hu- tions and future directions for research. man activities to be considered together? How is con- As introduced in Chapter 1, ICZM guides jointly the cem for the maintenance of the coastal ecosystems, which activities of two or more sectors or activities in the plan- directly or indirectly support economic activities, to enter ning, development and implementation of projects. More into the decisions? What should be the decision-making formally, it is "...the integrated planning and management framework for determining which activities should be of coastal resources and environments in a manner that is allowed to occur within the coastal zone, how should they based on the physical, socioeconomic, and political inter- be developed and operated, and what level of activity connections both within and among the dynamic coastal should be permitted? On what basis should conflicts systems..." (Sorensen 1997). Or similarly, "ICZM is a between competing coastal resource users be decided? process of govemance and consists of the legal and insti- Answering such questions necessarily involves the joint tutional framework necessary to ensure that development consideration of multiple system parameters, multiple and management plans for coastal zones are integrated criteria, and diverse value sets. 196 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling Ecological economic decision support models can play Results of the Modeling Projects a critical role. The family of ecological economic models includes those that recognize the validity of achieving an In 1995, work commenced under World Bank Research economically efficient management solution, yet concur- Committee funding on two streams of research concern- rently and explicitly consider the limitations necessarily ing coral reefs in the developing tropics, namely: i) cost- imposed on the scale and type of economic activities due effectiveness modeling of management interventions (i.e., to the characteristics and capacity of the natural environ- a question of the "supply" of biodiversity as an eco- ment. Ecological economic decision support models for nomic asset); and, ii) marine system valuation (i.e., a ICZM should also allow for the accommodation of infor- question of the "demand" for biodiversity). Essentially, mation regarding the socio-cultural context of the man- the least-cost modeling attempted to identify the cost agement environment, which has a critical role to play in curve for interventions to improve coral reef conditions, the development of policy. where the effects of various policy interventions and eco- What are the characteristics of a useful decision sup- nomic activities are linked to overall coral reef health port model? First and foremost, a useful decision sup- and costs associated with making improvements (Chap- port model needs to be capable of answering specific and ters 3, 4 and 8). The marine system valuation model relevant policy questions. To aid in the design and crea- sought to identify the benefits that can be realized from tion of such a model, one must be able to draw from an sustaining or improving coral reef conditions (Chapters existing body of policy relevant research. As noted by 5, 6 and 7). Ruitenbeek et al. (Chapter 8), there is a great deal of The broad objective ofthe research was to assist policy- scientific information available on coral reef biology and makers in the management and protection of coral reefs ecology. However, much of this information is not di- (Huber et al. 1994; Huber and Ruitenbeek 1997). The rectly "policy relevant" and of little help to decision- establishment of a cost-benefit methodology appropriate makers or directly in the creation of a decision support for use on coral reef systems in the developing tropics, model. Second, a model must be able to be understood and on marine systems in general, will assist in identify- and used directly by the targeted client group. Inputs ing appropriate institutional and policy interventions to must be relatively easy to provide, runs easy to conduct, help realize economically efficient uses of coral reefs while and results easy to interpret. Third, a distinction must be considering the impacts on and role of the supporting eco- made between the use of models intended primarily for system. Such a cost-benefit analysis (CBA) "package" is scientific inquiry and those intended primarily to inform represented by the integration of the cost-effectiveness decision-making and policy-models with highly exper- and valuation models (Chapters 9 and 10). Three case imental constructs should be avoided for use as decision study sites were selected on which to test the methodolo- support tools. The theory on which decision support mod- gies: i) Curacao, the Netherland Antilles; ii) the Republic els are based should be relatively robust. For example, of the Maldives; and, iii) Montego Bay, Jamaica. concerning the use of ecological models intended for use in decision-making, Friedland (1977) notes that "The basic Coral-Curafao objective in not the discovery of previously unknown Rijsberman and Westmacott (1996; Chapter 3) developed truths but the collection and integration of existing knowl- a cost-effectiveness analysis model for coral reef man- edge and its presentation in a form useful in the policy- agement and protection for the south coast of Curacao. making process." This has direct ramifications for what The decision support model was developed to facilitate type of model may be most appropriate. Finally, decision communication among stakeholders concerning devel- support models should be amenable to modification and opment directions and environmental management strat- revision of the data components, the specified relation- egies; the analysis of impacts on coral reef health of ships within the model, and the development altematives planned developments through the discharge of waste- or scenarios considered by the model. Again, it is imper- water and sediment, thereby integrating land-use, tour- ative that the needs of the users be kept in mind. A model ism and conservation planning; and, the analysis of the that uses data that are no longer valid for a particular cost-effectiveness ofmanagement interventions designed locale, whose underlying ecological economic relation- to maintain coral reef health. The model utilizes a struc- ships are no longer accurate, or allows for no further tured computer interface. modification or alteration of the specified development Results of three modeling scenarios (a reference sta- alternatives or scenarios, will prove to be of little use in tus quo development scenario and two alternative growth the long run. scenarios) indicate that Curacao is likely to experience Ecological Economic Decision Support Models for Coastal Zone Management in the Developing Tropics 197 significant declines in coral reef health and abundance the nature of the impacts on the coral reefs in the Repub- over the next 10 years. However, the modeling also indi- lic of the Maldives, management interventions focus on cates that interventions involving environmental protec- minimizing physical damage (Westmacott and Rijsberman tion strategies can halt this trend and, in some case, lead 1997; Chapter 4). Westrnacott and Rijsberman (1997; to the recovery of reefs above their current state of health. Chapter 4) illustrate the use of the model through the pres- Recommended interventions include combinations of sew- entation of example cases. age treatment, appropriate waste disposal, and reductions Westmacott and Rijsberman (1997; Chapter 4) note of refinery pollution; the implementation of altemative that there are an array of indicators that may be used to means of beach maintenance and the reduction of waste describe the potential for success or failure of a coastal from manufacturing and shipping were found not to be zone management strategy-although the model is some- effective (Rijsberman and Westmacott 1996; Chapter 3). what flexible, the set of coastal zone management indi- However, Rijsberman and Westmacott (1996; Chapter 3) cators that can be selected and examined by the user is also note that the modeling results may be specific to the necessarily limited. Moreover, the use of intervention cost- spatial scale examined and that these latter interventions effectiveness measures as they relate to changes in coral may indeed be cost-effective and appropriate within a reef health alone may ignore other strategies critical to smaller, local context. the success of a particular ICZM program (e.g., public Rijsberman and Westmacott (1996; Chapter 3) stress health issues). It is suggested that the results of modeling that the utility of the modeling tool can only be demon- scenarios for decision support, in the formulation of de- strated through an application that intimately involves velopment or management plans, be placed within the stakeholders in the scenario building and decision-mak- context of social goals and requirements. As with Coral- ing process. Coral-Curacao allows one to rank the meas- Curacao, the model may not adequately reflect localized ures and explore the formulation of various combinations conditions at a spatial scale below that incorporated within of measures to achieve a specific coral reef cover and the model's components. diversity target. For example, to achieve a target average coral cover of 14% and diversity of 50% (as indexed by The Valuation of Coral Reef Benef its the model), an initial investment of 310 million NAF with ayearly operation andmaintenance cost of 6 million NAF In the process of arriving at a measure of total economic wouearld bperequireand (isemaint ande Westof6macliot 199; value (TEV), economic valuation studies of natural sys- Chapter 3). tems most often distinguish use from non-use values, and direct use from indirect use values. These distinctions Coral-Maldives most often reflect the method of estimation. During the specification of the design of the coral reef valuation for Westmacott and Rijsberman (1997; Chapter 4) developed the Montego Bay Marine Park, it was decidedly more use- a cost-effectiveness analysis model for coral reef man- ful to distinguish between three classifications of marine agement and protection for North and South Male in the biodiversity valuation: i) "supply-oriented" production Republic of the Maldives. As a model developed parallel valuation methods (i.e., production function contributions with Coral-Curacao, the objective was to investigate whe- of marine systems to economic value); ii) "demand-ori- ther a model adapted for the Maldives (Coral-Maldives) ented" utility valuation methods (i.e., contributions of would provide a useful decision support tool. Chapter 4 marine systems to the utility of an individual or society); describes the model and the results of initial analyses. and, iii) "profit-oriented" rent capture valuation methods As with Coral-Curacao, the Coral-Maldives model was (i.e., contributions of marine systems through the distri- designed to allow decision-makers to determine the rela- bution of use values as captured rent, profits or value tive cost-effectiveness of various environmental manage- added; Huber and Ruitenbeek 1997; Ruitenbeek and ment interventions for various economic development Cartier 1999). For the latter category, the potential con- options in terms of the improvements in coral reef health tribution of coral reef biodiversity through the develop- that are achieved (i.e., using indices of coral reef cover ment of a bioprospecting venture was examined. and rugosity as proxy measures). In addition, the impacts of the scenarios can be seen in terms of economic, social Production Function Contributions-Montego Bay and environmental indicators that are selected at the out- Marine Park set of the analysis by the model user. Policy priorities Direct local use values were estimated by Gustavson and feasible management altematives were identified (1998; Chapter 5) for two broad categories of uses-the through discussions with government agencies. Given near-shore fisheries and tourism. Indirect use values 198 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling associated with coastal protection were also estimated. bias, were those who are "free riders", feel the payment is These local uses of the Montego Bay Marine Park waters not an adequate solution, lack faith in the proposed insti- were identified as the most significant during the final tution, or reject the payment mechanism. The survey also study site application, as well as being of the highest policy explored the extent of right-based ethical positions that priority. The values reported by Gustavson (1998) repre- would be compatible with lexicographic preference. To sent the extent of the reef-derived production contribu- aid in the comparison with the results of the local use and tions at risk of being lost if conservation efforts prove bioprospecting valuation studies in Montego Bay, the inadequate. CVM was also designed to allow for the separation of the Tourism services in Montego Bay include accom- direct use values from the indirect and non-use values. modations, food and beverage services, entertainment Survey respondents were asked to contribute towards (including independent water sports and attractions), trans- a trust fund that would be managed by a marine park to portation, shopping, and other miscellaneous services. Net increase biodiversity within the park boundaries. The pay- present value (NPV) estimates associated with tourism ment was to be made on a per annum basis for five years range from US$210 million (using a 15% discount rate) and lead to a 25% increase in coral reef cover. Bid curve to US$630 million (using a 5% discount rate) in 1996. analysis (i.e., tobit analysis in combination with maxi- The NPV estimates in 1998 associated with fishing range mum-likelihood estimation) provided further information from US$-1.66 million to US$7.49 million (constant 1996 regarding the variables determining variations in WTP dollars; using lower and upper estimate, respectively, of and refined the WTP estimates. At the sample means, annual net values and a 5% discount rate; 10% and 15% WTP was estimated as US$2.08 per person in Curacao discount rate estimates fall within this range). The NPV and US$3.24 per person in Jamaica (Spash et al. 1998; of the total amount of land at risk of erosion should the Chapter 6). The difference was explained as due to the protective function of the coral reefs be compromised, difference in the mix of tourists and local residents, with based on approximately 250 acres being vulnerable, is Jamaicans willing to pay almost double their counterparts estimated as US$65 million (constant 1996 dollars). in Cura9ao. Using typical visitor and local population The median NPV from all local use values for the profiles and a 10% discount rate, this leads to a total esti- Montego Bay Marine Park was estimated to be US$381 mated WTP of approximately US$4.5 million in Curacao million. Assuming a total reef area of 42.65 ha as a and US$20 million in Montego Bay, Jamaica (Spash et reference case, this translates to US$8.93 million/ha or al. 1998; Chapter 6). US$0.893 million ha-' yr' on an annualized basis (as- suming a 10% discount rate). Potential Bioprospecting Contributions- Montego Bay Marine Park Contributions to Utility-Montego Bay Marine Park The estimating model for Montego Bay bioprospecting and the South Coast of Curacao focused on average social net returns utilizing localized Spash et al. (1998; Chapter 6) utilized the contingent val- cost information for Jamaica and benefit values and suc- uation method (CVM) to assess utility values associated cess rates based on proprietary information for marine with coral reef biodiversity in Montego Bay, Jamaica, and products in the Caribbean (Ruitenbeek and Cartier 1999; along the south coast of Curacao. The study is particu- Chapter 7). Parametric model assumptions included the larly notable in that it examined utility values associated specification of the species-area relationship and the in- with a marine environmental resource (i.e., coral reef qual- stitutional revenue sharing relationship (i.e., a contingent ity), which had previously been neglected by previous net profit share and a fixed sampling level fee). Sensitiv- investigations. Moreover, the research made advances ity analysis explored the effects of variations in model towards explicitly addressing sources of bias due to lexi- parameters on the value estimate, including variations in cographic preferences that arise when a respondent is the total area of available reef substrate with live cover unwilling to accept any trade-offs for the loss of a good and the specification of the species-area relationship as or service (i.e., in seemingly refusing to make trade-offs, co-determinants of the expected number of samples avail- they are not behaving in accord with economic theory). able for testing. Other model scenarios included a fixed For zero bids, distinctions were made between those who sampling fee only, blended revenue shares, high research lack the income, regard the improvement as unimportant, and development (R&D) costs, low "hit rates", and a prefer to spend money on other goods or services, or were shortened sampling program. A marginal benefit func- protesting having to make such a choice. Among those tion was derived which related the value or "price" of giving protest zero bids, and thus providing a source of marine biodiversity to coral reef abundance. Ecological Economic Decision Support Models for Coastal Zone Management in the Developing Tropics 199 A "base case" value of US$70 million was estimated analyses tend to assume the separability and independ- for the reefs of the Montego Bay Marine Park, of which ence of individual interventions and the ability to treat approximately US$7 million (i.e., 10%) would realisti- benefits separately from costs (often when benefits can cally be able to be captured by Jamaica under typical not be defined). When dealing with highly complex sys- royalty or rental arrangements (Ruitenbeek and Cartier tems such as coral reefs, synergisms, feedbacks and other 1999; Chapter 7). The marginal value of reef for biopros- interdependencies between individual interventions and pecting was found to be US$530,000/ha or US$225,000/ the resulting level of coral reef health can invalidate the % change in coral reef abundance (corresponding to a recommendations arising from individually assessed local Jamaican planning price of US$22,500/% change policy interventions that are assumed to be able to be in coral reef abundance). applied in a sequential, step-wise fashion. For example, reforestation was found to be part of the optimal interven- The Identification of Least-Cost Interventions- tion set at coral reef improvement targets of 14% and 20%, Montego Bay Marine Park but were not part of the optimal intervention set for a 15% or 16% improvement (Ruitenbeek et al. 1999a; Chapter Similar to the Coral-Curacao and Coral-Maldives mod- 8). As noted by Ruitenbeek et al. (1 999a; Chapter 8), this els, Ruitenbeek et al. (1999a; Chapter 8) applied a fuzzy means that coral reef health targets, in reference to the logic methodology to identify the least-cost interventions extent of the derived benefits, must be established before that would lead to an increase in coral reef abundance policy interventions are pursued. within the Montego Bay Marine Park. Fuzzy logic pro- cedures are utilized within an ecological reef impact model Integrating the Results for Montego Bay to generate a complex dose-response surface that models Towards an Efficient Level of Intervention the relationship among coral reef abundance and various inputs within the context of the abiotic marine environ- A synthesis of the separate coral reef valuation studies ment. This is linked to a non-linear economic model for the Montego Bay Marine Park allows one to arrive at describing current and future economic activities within a total value and a net marginal benefit (or price) function eight sectors, technical and policy interventions, and pol- (Ruitenbeek and Cartier 1999; Chapter 9). In order to lution loads in Montego Bay. Optimization provides in- arrive at a marginal benefit function, relating price to sights into the most cost-effective means for protecting changes in coral reef abundance, further assumptions coral reefs under different reef quality targets. were required regarding the relationship between the In Montego Bay, Jamaica, up to a 20% increase in categories of values and coral reef abundance or quality. coral abundance may be achievable through the use of Specifically, a linear relationship is assumed between reef appropriate policy measures with a present value cost of quality and local use values and non-use utility values. US$153 million over 25 years (Ruitenbeek et al. 1999a; This is most likely not the case, but assuming a less sim- Chapter 8). The specific policy measures considered in- plified relationship cannot be justified given our current cluded installation of a sediment trap on the Montego knowledge. Only the results of the bioprospecting valu- River, the planting of trees in the upper watershed, instal- ation model (Ruitenbeek and Cartier 1999; Chapter 7) lation of a waste aeration system, installation of a large- allowed the specification of a different functional form. scale centralized treatment facility, agricultural extension As noted by Ruitenbeek (Chapter 9), total net marginal to provide waste reducing technologies, installation of an values will likely be over-estimated in some instances and outfall and pump station, improved household solid waste under-estimated in others. collection, and implementation of a hotel tax. Some in- The total benefit attributed to the coral reefs of the terventions were found to be relatively cost-effective. For Montego Bay Marine Park is estimated at US$470 mil- example, household solid waste collection, installation of lion; every 1% change in abundance is likely to generate an outfall, and use of a sediment trap on the Montego a marginal benefit of US$10 million or, altematively, the River would impose a present value cost of US$12 mil- marginal price of coral reef is approximately US$23 mil- lion and result in an improvement in coral reef cover of lion/ha (Chapter 9). Most of the value is attributed to over 10% (Ruitenbeek et al. 1999a; Chapter 8). tourism. Coastal protection and non-use utility benefits One key demonstration of the research was that con- also contribute, but to a much lesser extent. Existing fish- ventional methodologies for measuring cost-effectiveness eries and the potential development of a bioprospecting may result in sub-optimal policy solutions when applied program have a negligible effect on marginal values to complex systems. This is because cost-effectiveness (Chapter 9). 200 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling Using the marginal cost function as reported in the groups' use patterns, management priorities, and avail- least cost intervention study for the Montego Bay Marine able resources. In essence, "human framework" infor- Park (Ruitenbeek et al. 1999a; Chapter 8), in conjunction mation assists in identifying an economically efficient with the marginal benefit estimates, allows one to arrive outcome that is also socially and culturally viable. This at a global optimization. As reported by Ruitenbeek (Chap- information has demonstrated utility in the development ter 9), an optimal improvement of coral reef abundance of effective policies and programs for the Montego Bay of 13% is suggested (i.e., from approximately 29% live Marine Park (Bunce et al. 1999; Chapter 2). cover as estimated from model equilibrium conditions- see Ruitenbeek et al 1999a; Chapter 8-to approximately Policy Context and Advice 42% live cover), requiring net expenditures of US$27 million. The required interventions would involve instal- Case Study-The Capture of Rent Generated From lation of a sediment trap, waste aeration, installation of a the Use of the Montego Bay Coral Reefs sewage outfall, implementation of improved household Of great interest to the management authorities of the solid waste collection, and implementation of economic Montego Bay Marine Park, as well as to managers of any incentives to improve waste management by the hotel coastal marine system, is to capture at least a portion of industry. Sensitivity analysis suggests that this optimi- rent generated from direct uses to pay for the necessary zation is fairly robust to changes in the net economic management, and potential enhancement, of the resource. benefit estimates-benefits would need to be increased In other words, there are social costs associated with the by US$275 million or decreased by US$300 million for conservation and management of the resource that should the target coral reef quality improvement to change by be paid by the users. more than 2% (Chapter 9). As a component of the local use valuation study (Gustavson 1998; Chapter 5), current existing government The Human Context of Coral Reef Use charges, which may capture a portion of the rent, were explored. Currently, it is not the policy of the Montego In addition to the application of cost-effectiveness analy- Bay Marine Park to charge user fees (a recognized, ex- sis, resource valuation or CBA, it is key that decision- plicit mechanism for rent capture), although it is in the makers comprehensively and systematically consider the early stages of beginning such a program. Other govern- social, cultural and economic context of policy develop- ment charges, which are specifically linked to either tour- ment and ecological change. Such context or "human ism or fisheries related activities, may capture a portion framework" information does not traditionally form part of either producer or consumer surplus, but are not neces- of such analyses, in which quantitative monetary indica- sarily designed explicitly to do so. This includes business tors or measures are often applied within an "automatic license fees, fisheries license fees, beach fees and tourist evaluation" decision-making environment (Anderson departures taxes. 1991), restricting further interpretation of the appropriate In principle, license fees are collected to pay for the or optimal levels and types of interventions and policies government costs of regulating and administering the necessary. business or activity. No information was available on the The economic valuation methodologies applied in actual costs associated with regulating the reef-related these projects were designed to enumerate the total ben- activities, yet it is likely that in all cases these costs are efits currently received from the coral reefs, through both not recovered based on existing fee schedules. It was production function contributions and human utility (as found that the beach fee charges as currently set are min- well as potential rent or royalty benefits from the devel- imal and, although they vary roughly according to the opment of marine bioprospecting ventures). Such mone- type of use, are not linked to varying levels of producer tary benefits will, in theory, reflect the local set of values. surplus. None of these funds are explicitly directed to However, much is lost in reducing the social, cultural and pay for the management of the Montego Bay Marine Park. economic information to a single value metric. This was No other government or management agency fees or demonstrated through the development and application charges are specifically linked to either tourism or fisher- of a rapid socio-economic assessment methodology to ies related activities in the area. Corporate profit taxes, provide an understanding of the coral reef user groups of or personal income tax in the case of the fishers or of the Montego Bay case study site (Bunce and Gustavson individually distributed profits from tourism-related busi- 1998a; Chapter 11). Such information will better enable nesses, may also capture a portion of the rent. However, the adaptation of management strategies to the user taxes are paid to the general government collectorate and Ecological Economic Decision Support Models for Coastal Zone Management in the Developing Tropics 201 thus are not explicitly available for use in marine park prospecting program in Jamaica, as recommended by management. The current interest of Montego Bay Ma- Putterman (1998; Chapter 12), are minimal. The imple- rine Park in implementing user fees should be encouraged. mentation of a bioprospecting program may be warranted. Case Study-Institutions and Policy Advice for The question becomes one ofthe willingness of local man- Bioprospecting in Jamaica agement and stakeholders of the Montego Bay Marine Park to enter into such a venture. Putterman (1998; Chapter 12) offers specific policy and institutional strengthening advice with respect to the in- Modeling Results and Policy Advice for the Use of corporation of genetic resource use into ICZM in Jamaica Decision Support Models as a potentially powerful tool for conservation and eco- More generally, beyond the specific policy and institu- nomic development. Genetic or molecular diversity, a tional questions that arise when one considers the poten- measure of the biological diversity within species, can be tial development of a bioprospecting program in Montego the source of new pharmaceuticals, industrial products Bay, policy questions arise from the overall least cost and agricultural varieties. Many strategies for research intervention and coral reef benefit modeling results. collaboration, as a risk-reducing strategy to maximize the Ruitenbeek (Chapter 9) notes that if economic efficiency ability to discover promising new chemicals or genes, may is the goal, both costs and benefits must be considered in be employed; as well, many benefit sharing mechanisms research when dealing with complex non-linear systems and options for compensation exist (see Chapter 12). As such as coral reefs. Cost-effectiveness analysis alone noted by Putterman (1998; Chapter 12), there are currently may not be adequate. Ruitenbeek also calls for a greater no Jamaican policies to regulate access to genetic re- emphasis at the local level on the socio-economic and sources. A review of Jamaican institutions and policies management dimensions of direct uses, including the pro- lead to the following key recommendations (Chapter 12): motion of practical local management regimes that con- * In the design of a set of resources policy options, incor- sider and involve affected stakeholders. This point is also porate obligations under the Convention on Biological emphasized by Jameson and Williams (Chapter 2) and Diversity and the United Nations Convention on the Bunce and Gustavson (1998a; Chapter 11). Law of the Sea, as well as take account of the effect that policy-making will have on private sector activities; * Regulate access to genetic resources up-front with per- Dissemination mits and contracts to define rights to these resources before samples are collected or exported; The least cost intervention and valuation approaches of * Establish sui generis (novel) rights to tangible property this modeling research are useful decision support, policy and traditional knowledge in order to define who has and training tools for coral reef managers and govem- the right to participate in and benefit from the negotia- ment decision-makers faced with significant coral reef tion of contracts involving a transfer of genetic resources management issues. The consolidated dissemination or traditional knowledge; strategy for the projects has the following facets: * Develop prior informed consent procedures in order to * The launch of a "road show" to disseminate this publi- give the legal owners of rights to genetic resources and cation that includes a CD-ROM of the COCOMO- traditional knowledge a means to control use of these COastal .ef COasts in MOntego Bay decision support resources; and, model (Chapter 10); * Create a national benefit sharing formula to convert a portion of monetary income derived from new product * Th ciiuto fwrsosspotdb ol development ionetory public gdse tromensrew firondu Bank Knowledge Management, at both the national and *equitabl ingo beits o genseticreor local level, with the goals of obtaining feedback on the equitable sharig of benefits from genetic resources findings of the applied modeling research, identifying priority areas for future research, and identifying po- Potential bioprospecting net present values are small tential avenues for strengthening regional and local in comparison to current local use values associated with capacity to manage the coastal resources; tourism and coastal protection (Gustavson 1998; Ruiten- - The creation of user-driven programs on the World Bank beek and Cartier 1999; Chapters 5 and 7) and, as noted Knowledge Management web sites (BIONODE and above, are expected to have a negligible effect on mar- Water Resources) and other websites; and, ginal coral reefvalues. However, Ruitenbeek and Cartier . Assistance to the Montego Bay Marine Park Trust in (1999; Chapter 7) note that the impacts of the institutional the preparation of a regional replicable project entitled costs associated with the operation of a national bio- ReefFix (Chapter 2). 202 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling The stakeholders involved in the case study sites have in Montego Bay coastal issues. The interface uses exten- expressed their need and interest for a more comprehen- sive graphics to provide users with a quick overview of sive understanding of existing and planned development coastal issues and how development, fisheries, tourism, and conservation activities involving the coastal zone. agriculture, industry and households impact the coast and Whether they be local fishers, water sports operators, the coral reefs of Montego Bay. Stored within the model hoteliers, local developers and entrepreneurs, local resi- is information on the coral reef ecosystem and associated dents or visiting tourists, it is critical to fulfill these infor- marine life, as well as information on what the coral reefs mation requirements to achieve effective coastal zone contribute to Montego Bay through fisheries, tourism and management. The dissemination strategy is necessary to coastal protection. Through the user interface, different increase the involvement of the diverse stakeholder groups actions may be taken to protect the coastal zone and coral in assessing the changes in the marine environment and in reefs, some being more cost-effective than others. mitigating or preventing the negative impacts on the coral COCOMO predicts the least cost set of interventions to reefs. The development of a network of policy-makers realize a specified coral reef abundance. Thus, the im- and researchers-a "community of practice"-to enable pacts from development-related activities can be explored the sharing of international experiences on coral reef res- and priorities set for future coastal management actions. toration and to foster collaborative research is also key. In the process ofusing the model, the user obtains a unique awareness of the relationships between coastal activities COCOMO and communication among stakeholders is enhanced. COCOMO is a decision support coastal zone management ReefFix model for Montego Bay that illustrates coastal problems and estimates the effects of human activities (Chapter 10). An ICZM coral reef restoration, watershed management It is also a tool for policy development and capacity build- and capacity building demonstration project-ReefFix- ing in integrated coastal zone management (ICZM). The is being implemented through the Montego Bay Marine Montego Bay case study site was selected for the interac- Park (Chapter 2). ReefFix is the implementation phase tive modeling project because of the critical needs for such of the decision support modeling results. The goal of the a tool. The urban center is experiencing rapid growth, program is to design and implement a least cost coral with development often ad hoc and relatively unplanned. reef restoration and watershed management project and Many physical alterations to the coastal zone have oc- then transfer the information and technology to other curred, including coastal infilling, mangrove destruction, tropical American countries facing similar challenges. and sedimentation, in addition to coastal nutrient enrich- A key characteristic of ReefFix is that it takes an ap- ment, intensive fishing pressures, and extensive use by proach driven by specific policy needs related to the man- the water sports, diving, and tourism industries (Chapters agement of coral reefs that suffer from significant impacts 1 and 11). This has resulted in the degradation of water (Chapters 1 and 2). The capacity building component quality and coastal resources, and has caused significant includes the strengthening of human and institutional ca- impacts to the valuable coral reef ecosystem. pabilities for integrated management, science, training Specifically, the applied COCOMO modeling research and education (Chapter 2). It is seen as important not is assisting the Montego Bay Marine Park Trust with a only to transfer the information to the developing coun- coherent and comprehensive program that: try context, but to promote the exchange of experiential learning and to build local expertise in coral reef man- * Raises awareness and promotes consensus building on ament the part of the stakeholders with regard to environmen- agement. tal priorities in Montego Bay; The program has the following objectives (Chapter 2): * Identifies the challenges of addressing coastal zone * Utilize the developed decision support model tool for management issues in Montego Bay over the short and the Montego Bay Marine Park (COCOMO) to provide long-term with the various govermnent and non-gov- information to local managers and decision-makers; emnment organizations (NGOs) involved; * Develop and implement a watershed management ac- Identifies specific enviromnmental investments with fea- tion plan for the Montego Bay Marine Park to improve sible, relatively low cost solutions; and, marine water quality and increase live coral reef abun- sible, relatively lo otsltos n,dance; * Initiates a process of dialogue with stakeholders. dev - Develop and implement a fisheries management action The model's computer user-friendly interface is de- plan for the Montego Bay Marine Park to increase fish veloped for policy-makers, specialists and those interested abundance, improve economic conditions for fishers, Ecological Economic Decision Support Models for Coastal Zone Management in the Developing Tropics 203 and help make the Montego Bay Marine Park finan- concerning the valuation components for, as noted by cially self-sustaining; and, Cartier and Ruitenbeek (Annex A), the choice of any one Implement a demonstration action plan for the tropical of a number of valuation techniques should be driven by Americas that will improve ICZM capacity for the res- the specific policy questions at hand or the analytical toration of coral reef ecosystems in other countries. This issues that need to be addressed. The policy questions may include application of a developed least cost ICZM define the data that is needed and the analyses that are decision support model template that can be custom required. tailored for other locales. Although scenarios, resulting from the development of ecological economic decision support models as re- Process and Policy Applications ported here, have defined specific policy recommenda- tions regarding the types of interventions required and the level of coral reef health that should be achieved for A rational economic optimization, considering solely the costs of management interventions in conjunction with specific study sites, it is as yet too early in the develop- the valuation of the total economic benefits received (e.g., ment and use of these models to recommend that the re- Chevaluapterionmay seemingly reduce thenef receive d t e pla quired investments be made. Further work involving the Chapter 9), may seemingly reduce the role to be played lclsuyst tkhlesadmngmn gnis by~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ stkhlesadmngmn.gnisi h etn local study site stakeholders and management agencies, by stakeholders and management agencies in t e setting as described by the dissemination strategy above, is re- of goals and the expression of the diverse set of values qure to rein th.eomnain n eeone likely represented by the various user groups. Indeed, it grated coastal zone management programs. The design was the general approach of Rijsberman and Westmacott of specific interventions can be expected to require re- (Chapters 3 and 4) in the development and implementa- finementebased iona men deptcsdeto of loa tion of the Coral-Curacao and Coral-Maldives decision social and institutional conditions through a more partici- support models to focus on the ability of decision-makers patory process. In addition, although the results reported to analyze, through various user-defined scenarios, the here derive from truly state of the art" models, there were cost-effectiveness of alternative interventions and the re- rotable deficiencies in the amount and quality of the eco- sulting economic, social and environmental conditions as nomic decical ta avalal and noale ece- reflected by various indicators. Their initial modeling ap- cies in the development of the science behind the model proach does not go so far as to derive a global optimum, construction. In short, the models should not be used to but focuses on providing a means by which decision- dictate coral reef management directions, but are for use makers (and those simply with an interest) can explore to help support such decisions. management alternatives. Defining an optimal solution through a decision sup- port model does not necessarily negate local stakeholder Future Directions for involvement in management decisions; however, one must Decision Support Models be cautioned against this occurring. The participation of stakeholders and management agencies must not be for- One significant challenge in the study of complex non- gotten. The recommendations stemming from a norma- linear systems, such as coral reef ecosystems, is in tive model solution may not be adequate or feasible given providing an adequate description of the composition, the specific institutional and social context. Indeed, the functional relationships and behavior of the system in success of any coral reef management program will be question. Ruitenbeek (Chapter 9) notes that research greatly affected by the social environment and the deci- needs to show a greater emphasis on ecosystem analysis, sion-making process itself. It is critical that stakeholders with a focus on functional linkages and relationships. be involved in as many stages in the development of a The development of ecological economic decision sup- management program as is practical, even if it is simply port models is hindered by a lack of understanding through an information sharing exercise. As has become regarding the behavior of ecosystems. Ecosystem un- increasingly evident in all environmental management certainty may prevent useful rational economic analysis processes, it is the process itself that often sets the stage (Chapter 9). for a successful management program. Without an open Complex system modeling techniques such as fuzzy and participatory process, significant barriers to effective logic may prove more useful. The least cost interven- management can be expected to arise. tion component of the decision support models presented Decision support modeling should be implemented here (see also Brown et al. 1996; Meesters et al. 1995, within a specific policy context. This is especially true 1 996a; Ridgley and Dollar 1996), demonstrate the utility 204 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling of incorporating a fuzzy logic modeling environment when Most indicators cannot be expected to meet all of the examining the behavior of a coral reef ecosystem in re- above criteria; however, it remains the goal of indicator sponse to anthropogenic stress and intervention. Further development to satisfy as many as is possible given the research into the use of fuzzy sets in similar applications shortcomings of the level of available scientific knowl- is warranted (Smith 1994). Yet, it may be that a combina- edge and restrictions on research. It is asserted that coral tion of various techniques, be they linear deterministic reef cover is a reasonable indicator of coral reef health models, complex simulation models, fuzzy logic models given these shortcomings, but future development of these or neural networks, may be required in the exploration of decision support models may need to refine or modify the behavior of and interactions between ecological and the indicators utilized. The development of ecosystem economic systems. indicators for use in decision-making and the develop- The linking of disparate systems within a modeling ment of policy is very much in its infancy, although environment is a continuing challenge being facedbythe progress is being made (e.g., Jameson et al. 1998, 1999; field of ecological economics, as well as by other trans- Chapter 1). How such indicators may form the "link" disciplinary fields of inquiry. The fields of conservation between ecological and economic components of com- biology and economics have separately struggled with an plex systems models, and facilitate awareness and under- inability to provide adequate explanatory links between standing, remains to be explored further. economic activities and species or ecosystem decline. As a final point regarding the further development More generally, often the provision of a concise descrip- and refinement of ecological economic decision support tion or characterization of a complex ecological economic models for ICZM, any analysis must be able to explore environment is required simply to facilitate decision-mak- the possible variations in the results and subsequent rec- ing in management. Indicators, as proxy variables or sim- ommendations. It is imperative that decision support plifications of a complex reality, often serve this function. modeling involves a sensitivity analysis or some means In the modeling efforts presented here, the primary with which to gage the risk or possible error associated indicator used for coral reef health was spatial coverage with any one scenario. For example, the bioprospecting (i.e., percent of a total available substrate covered by live valuation modeling showed that the estimates of ecosys- coral). This indicator provided a simple descriptive "link" tem yield were highly dependent on the assumed species- between economic activities and the affected coral reef area relationship (Chapter 7). Relatively small variations ecosystem. Moreover, the indicator formed the basis for in such non-linear relationships inherent within a model decisions concerning the "best" management interventions can lead to sizable variation in the outcome. Recommen- in order to receive the greatest return in benefits and con- dations regarding optimal policy must bear these in mind. cerning the extent ofthe interventions warranted to achieve Caution is prudent until the science of decision support an economically efficient outcome. The obvious ques- models and their application has developed to a point that tions arise-is this indicator of coral reef health adequate warrants great confidence in the results. and should other indicators be included in the modeling? As a final message upon closing, it is believed that The properties of a "good" indicator for use in deci- the ecological economic decision support modeling work sion-making and policy development could be described will prove useful in the development of effective ICZM as the following: programs in the developing tropics. Further research and refinements of the models, along with greater attention poThe indappicator design;corresponds to theselectedpur to the process of decision-making, should be seen as a pose and application; necessary challenge, not as a hindrance. Given the emerg- * The value base behind the indicator design is explicit; ing evidence that indicates we are facing an ecological * The indicator provides a sufficient simplification or crisis world-wide in the decline of coral reefs, manage- abstraction of the targeted system characteristics; ment must move forward given the best set of decision * The theory behind the design of the indicator is rela- support tools currently available. tively robust; * The sensitivity of the indicator to system parameter changes has been sufficiently explored and defined, and the indicator is sufficiently sensitive to meet the design purpose; and, * The information provided by the indicator can be un- derstood and applied by the user. 'K> <4/ r 4 '17 ' / '1/ Annex A Review of the Empirical Biodiversity Literature Cynthia Cartier and Jack Ruitenbeek H] Ruitenbeek Resource Consulting Ltd., Gabriola, BC, Canada The primary objective of this literature review is to illus- focus in this study is on the pharmaceutical aspects. This trate the techniques that have been used and the results focus is driven by the current policy interest in many de- achieved in empirical studies relevant to marine and coral veloping countries in capturing values from drug research. reef biodiversity valuation. Very little has, in fact, been On balance, marine systems are receiving greater scrutiny done that relates only to marine biodiversity, while an ex- for new sources of drugs while bioprospecting for useful tensive amount has been done that covers related areas, maricultural traits is limited (Henkel 1998). For example, such as coastal resource valuation or terrestrial biodiver- in early 1999, more than 30 drugs derived from marine sity valuation. The purpose of this annex is not to provide species were under preclinical investigations by private an exhaustive review of all of the valuation literature that and public research organizations, and by the National may be relevant; such a review would encompass literally Cancer Institute (Mestel 1999). thousands of articles. Recent work to promote benefit All existing economic valuation studies pertaining to transfer techniques in Australia and Canada, for exam- coral reef habitats were reviewed to determine what types ple, has resulted in two searchable internet-based bibli- of use and non-use values are typically estimated, and what ographies that permit users to transfer benefits from one types of valuation approaches are employed. The studies study site to a new study site.' Also, up-to-date online were generally categorized as falling into either "produc- searchable databases relating to biodiversity issues are tion value", "utility value" or "rent value" estimates (see available from researchers active in the field.2 summary in Box A. 1). Value categories include recrea- A secondary objective has been to audit and expand tion, harvested products, education and research, ecologi- on some of the early secondary literature (e.g., Aylward cal functions, and existence and option values. In some 1993; Pearce and Moran 1994) with a view to updating categories, valuation studies of other habitats are included those reviews. These studies have been frequently cited because either the study approach is interesting or because in what is now becoming a third round, or tertiary litera- few coral reef valuation studies exist for the particular ture, on the subject and we have referred to the primary use or non-use value. Such is the case for coral reef stud- articles to ensure consistent and accurate comparable rep- ies on existence and option values, and for ecological func- resentations of methods and results. tion valuations. Third, we pay particular attention to pharmaceutical From the studies reviewed, the value estimates for uses development, and this chapter presents a rigorous com- and non-uses of coral reefs are categorized in Table A. I a parison of five sets of models that have been used for (for habitats) and Table A. lb (for pharmaceutical genetic terrestrial biodiversity prospecting valuation relevant in resources), and the approach taken for the valuation is this area. These range from early models of gross ben- summarized. A study by de Groot (1992), an ambitious efits to more recent models that attempt to reflect some of valuation of the Galapagos National Park, appears in the complexities found in terrestrial ecosystems. This many of the valuation categories. It is included in this review forms the basis for developing a similar model for review because of its breadth of treatment of a marine marine biodiversity (Chapter 7). area that, although a minor attribute, does include coral As a preamble to the discussion on pharmaceutical reef habitat. It is also included because of its various bioprospecting models, we also explore some of the more valuation approaches. general findings from the agricultural bioprospecting After examining the valuation studies that focused on literature. The agricultural bioprospecting models have coral reefs, we find that: developed along a somewhat different path than the phar- . Existence and option valuations are rare (only one study maceutical models; while aspects of the agricultural mod- estimated the existence value of a coral reef site, that els are relevant to marine bioprospecting, our empirical being the Great Barrier Reef); 208 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling * Most valuation studies involving coral reefs are con- For the Galapagos National Park, de Groot (1992) cemed with their recreational and tourism use value; estimates option value. He also estimates "inspirational" * No studies estimate the genetic resource use value of and "spiritual" values that are included here because these coral reefs, although all acknowledge it; could be considered vicarious non-use values. The option * The most commonly valued harvested product of coral value is estimated to be at least equal to the combined reefs is fisheries, but the natural systems underlying value of all the so-called productive and conservation the harvest (e.g., reef-fish relationships) are simplified, (ecological) uses of the park. The value of cultural and if not ignored; artistic inspirational use is based on the value of book and * The education and research values are based on expendi- film sales. The value of spiritual use is based on financial ture estimates or on budget allocations from funding donations because, the author argues, at least part of do- institutions; and, nated money indicates an ethical or intrinsic value attached * Coastal protection afforded by the coral reef habitat is to the park. the only ecological function valued. As existence and option valuations involving coral reef habitats are scarce, studies involving other types of habi- tats were reviewed for their methodological approaches Literature Relating to to valuing non-use benefits. The six non-coral reef stud- Existence and Option Values ies documented in Table A. 1 are frequently cited as ex- amples of non-use benefit valuation; all but one employ Only one study estimated a combined option and exist- CVM to estimate non-use value. ence value for a coral reef habitat. Hundloe et al. (1987) uses contingent valuation methods (CVM) to estimate the value of coral sites within the Great Barrier Reef to Literature Relating to "vicarious" users. From adult Australian citizens, will- Harvested Product Valuations ingness-to-pay (WTP) bids to ensure that the reef is main- tained in its then current state are used to calculate a Table A.la sunimarizes the results of seven studies involv- consumer surplus of A$45 million/yr. Bids from survey ing harvested products from coral reef habitats. All of respondents who had visited the reef are excluded, but the valuations use a change in productivity approach with the motives behind bids from non-users were not distin- varying degrees of linkage complexity. Two of the stud- guished. Therefore, although the estimate represents non- ies (de Groot 1992; Driml 1999) do not incorporate eco- use value, it does not separate option and existence values. logical economic linkages-the valuations simply repre- In any case, the authors stress that the valuation is an un- sent the gross financial value of harvested products. Four derestimate because it excludes the vicarious value of the other studies try to link reef quality to fishery productivity reef to overseas residents. -reef quality is viewed as a factor ofproduction, a change Box A .1. Biodiversity production, utility and rent valuation measures. 1 Biodiversity production values. These are measures of the value of biodiversity within an economic pro- duction function, and may therefore also be considered as focusing on a supply-oriented approach to valuation. They are frequently used to estimate direct use values for fishery output, for example, but the approach can also be used to estimate indirect uses such as ecological functions. In the terrestrial bio- diversity literature, they often attempt to estimate the value of inputs to specific drugs or agricultural uses. 2 Biodiversity utility values. These are measures of the value of biodiversity within an economic utility func- tion, thereby attempting to capture total consumer surplus or demand-oriented value. Contingent valua- tion techniques are often used to capture non-use values, or other techniques are used to value the final end use benefits of biodiversity. 3 Biodiversity rent capture values. These are measures of how much value is retained or captured within a country or region, or by a particular interest group. The methods usually concentrate on one part of a profit function, and are more interested in identifying a specific profit share than in identifying total eco- nomic value. The estimates derived by such approaches may be quite small if there are local institutional weaknesses or failures that prevent benefits from being captured. Table A.1a. Habitat valuation studies relevant to coral reef management Approach Ecosystem and . Miscellaneous Notes including Original Study e ' q' Valuation Results Secondary Sources Option & Existence Values (for Habitats) Existence and Option * CVM: A$45 million/yr consumer surplus or A$4/visit WTP to As reported in Hundloc (1990). Value, Great Barrier Reef ensure that the Great Barrier Reef is maintained in its current state; (Hundloe et al. 1987) based on a 1986 mail survey of Australian citizens 15+ yrs old; estimate excludes respondents who had visited the Reef. Inspiration and Spiritual * Expenditures: $0.20/ha-lyr-I for cultural/artistic Inspiration value is classified as productive Values, Galapagos inspirational use, based on sales of books and films; use value; spiritual value as conservation value. National Park $0.52/ha-lyr' for spiritual use, based on donations. Both are included here as they are both arguably (de Groot 1992) vicarious use values. Option Value, * US$120/ha-1yr' which is equal to the total value of all the Conservation values include inter alia habitat/ Galapagos National Park Park's conservation and productive use values combined. refugia value, recreation; productive uses (de Groot 1992) include food, construction materials, etc. Existence Value, * CVM Studies: $30 billion total based on arbitrary WTP As reported in Pearce and Moran (1994). Brazilian Amazon estimates from various CV studies; aggregated across (Gutierrez and Pearce 1992) the OECD adult population. Conservation Value, * CVM: $580/ha NPV of conserving the area; based on a mail Study was a CBA of two options: (i) conservation Blanket Peat Bog Scotland survey; WTP of non-users was $21.60, WTP of users was $43.70; of the area; and (ii) conversion to block plantations. (Hanley and Craig 1991) average WTP ($30/household) was applied to the regional Option (ii) yielded a NPV of minus $1590/ha. population, put on a per ha basis, and discounted at 6%. As reported in Barbier et al. (1997). Minimum Option Value, * $343/acre; based on average annual amount paid by As reported in Pearce and Moran (1994). Massachusetts Wetlands US Fish and Wildlife Service in 1980 to owners of (Danielson and Leitch 1986) unaltered wetlands for preservation easements. Conservation Value, * CVM: A$124/yr for 10 yrs average WTP to avoid a major mining A major criticism of the study was the Kakadu Conservation Zone, development impact scenario; and A$52.80/yr for 10 yrs to avoid "embedding effect." As reported in Munasinghe Australia (Imber et al. 1991) a minor impact scenario; based on a nationwide in-person survey. and McNeely (1994). Existence Value, Nadgee * CVM: At least A$20, or A$2/yr in perpetuity WTP of Canberra Coastal area with high diversity of habitats; Nature Reserve, residents for the continued existence of the Reserve; based on an managed with emphasis on non-participatory Australia (Bennett 1984) in-person survey of 544 residents, bid curve analysis, and a 10% benefits. real interest rate. Table A.la. continued Approach Ecosystem and \. Miscellaneous Notes including Original Study 4 - Valuation Results Secondary Sources Existence Value Prince * CVM: Median $3 1/household one-time tax for measures Natural resource damage assessment done for William Sound, Alaska to prevent future oil spills like that of the Exxon Valdez; the State of Alaska. As reported in Pearce and (Carson et al. 1992) based on in-person survey of 1043 US citizens; WTP Moran (1994). aggregated over affected households yielded $2.8 billion in total lost non-use value. Direct Use Values for Marine Areas-Harvested Products 0 Fisheries Valuation * Productivity Change: Gross Revenue A$143 million Study updates Driml (1994) estimates presented Great Barrier Reef (1996); based on 1995/96 catch data for major in Driml (1997) and Driml et al. (1997). (Driml 1999) commercial species, and a survey of current fish prices. Fisheries Valuation * Productivity Change: PV Gross Revenue $9108 with CBA study evaluates management options: Bacuit Bay, Philippines logging vs $17,248 with logging ban; based on assumed (i) continuation of logging as usual; (ii) logging (Hodgson and Dixon 1988) constant returns to scale of natural systems; and on ban in Bacuit Bay drainage basin. regression analyses of sediment loading, coral cover and 0 species, and fish biomass relationships. Fisheries Valuation, * Productivity Change: PV Gross Revenues (billion Rp): CBA study evaluates management options: Taka Bone Rate Coral -2 to 103 without management vs 47 to 777 with (i) no management; (ii) establishment of marine Reef Atoll, Indonesia management; based on fishing activity surveys; and park with regulated fishing. (Sawyer 1992) sensitivity analyses wherein fish catch declines range 0-15% and discount rates vary 5-15%. Fisheries Valuation, * Productivity Change: NPV of fisheries loss/sq km of reef: Study uses CBA to compare the private and Indonesia Coral Reefs $40,000 (poison fishing); $86,000 (blast fishing); $94,000 social net benefits of a sustainably managed reef (Cesar 1996) (coral mining); $81 (sedimentation); $109 (overfishing); fishery, with those of a fishery subjected to based on assumptions about the reef and fishery impacts detrimental fishing practices, coral mining, or of these practices. sedimentation. Fisheries Valuation, * Productivity Change: $80 million/yr in lost fish production Production levels are calculated for varying levels Philippines caused by dynamiting, muro-ami, and poisoning of coral reefs; reef damage. (McAllister 1988) based on estimates of current and potential production. Aquarium Trade, * Productivity Change: Global aquarium trade attributable to the The price of Philippine aquarium species is Philippines Philippine Coral Reefs: $10 million in 1988 could be increased discounted internationally due to method of capture. (McAllister 1988) by 50% with sustainable production practices. Table A.la. continued Approach Ecosystem and i Miscellaneous Notes including Original Stuidy 4 Valuation Results Secondary Sources Productive Use Values, * * Productivity Change: $0.40/ha-lyr-' (permitted) ornamental de Groot classifies ornamental resources, food, and Galapagos National Park product sales; $0.70/ha-lyr' local fish and crustacean harvest; construction materials as having productive use value (de Groot 1992) $5.20/ha-'yr' construction materials value (terrestrial and within the "production function" category of coastal areas). environmental functions. Wetland Valuation, * Productivity Change: Marginal productivity of commercial As reported in Barton (1994a). Florida (Bell 1989) marine species: $88/ha-'yr-'; based on a wetland production function describing wetland/fisheries productivity linkage; and market prices of commercial species. Direct Use Values for Marine Areas - Recreation & Tourism Recreation Value Great * Productivity Change: Gross Recreation Value A$769 (1996), Study updates Driml (1994) estimates presented Barrier Reef (Driml 1999) includes A$647 for commercial tourism and A$123 for in Driml (1997) and Driml et al. (1997). recreational fishing & boating; based on volume & price data for hotel stays & reef trips, and survey data for private recreational boat use. Visits to Great Barrier * TCM: A$144 million/yr consumer surplus for domestic As reported in Hundloe (1990). Reef "Region" tourists and international tourists; based on travel cost (Hundloe et al. 1987) expenditure by visitors to the "Reef Region." Visits to Coral Sites and * TCM: A$106 million/yr consumer surplus; based on travel As reported in Hundloe (1990). the "Reef Region" of the costs to coral sites by both domestic and international Great Barrier Reef tourists, and includes all attributes of the "Reef Region." (Hundloe et aL 1987) Visits to Coral Sites within * CVM: A$6 million/yr consumer surplus or over A$8/adult visitor As reported in Hundloe (1990) and Driml et al. the Great Barrier Reef WTP to see coral sites in their present (1986-87) condition; based (1997). (Hundloe et al. 1987) on a survey of visitors to reef sites only, thereby excluding all other attributes of the Great Barrier Reef "Reef Region." Coral Reef Value and Its * CVM: $3 1/person-lyr' WTP, for a consumer surplus of Also, TCM was used to estimate a demand curve for Impact on Tourist Volume $5 million/yr by visitors to maintain coral reef in current vacations; the coral reef consumer surplus was netted Negril, Jamaica condition; and $49/person-'yr-' for a surplus of $8 million/yr to out of vacation consumer surplus to examine the (Wrightl995) restore reefs to "excellent" condition; based on CVM survey data resultant shift in demand and reduction in tourist and 162,000 visitors/yr. volume if reef quality should decline. Table A.la. continued Approach RI Ecosystem and i Miscellaneous Notes including Original Study qS Valuation Results Secondary Sources Dive Value, Bonaire Marine * * CVM: $27.40 average WTP for a consumer surplus of $325,000; The study also estimated the revenues and costs of Park (Dixon et al. 1993) based on 18,700 divers in 1992 paying a $10/diver-'yr' fee. dive tourism, and the carrying capacity of dive sites Productivity Change: Gross tourist revenue of $23.2 million (4000-6000/site-'yr-', for a total of 190,000-200,000). (1991). Dive Value Bonaire Marine * * Productivity Change: Net Tourism Revenue $7.9 to $8.8 million The study compares its net value estimate to the gross Park (Pendleton 1995) (1991); based on ownership & profit data. TCM: $19.2 million value estimate of Dixon et al. (1993). It argues for a N, consumer surplus. Park NPV: $74.21 million local benefits; "project appraisal approach" to protection valuation. $179.7 million consumer surplus; based on 20 yr period, I 0% discount rate. John Pennekamp/Key * TCM: $285 to $426/person'day-' consumer surplus; based on a The inclusion of an "opportunity cost of time" Largo, Florida survey of some 350 park users in 1990; nine models were variable was found to increase significantly consumer (Leeworthy 1991) estimated; final estimate range taken from the two models which surplus estimates. best fit the data. 0 Tourism Palawan Coral * Productivity Change: PV gross revenue $6,280 with logging vs CBA study evaluates management options: Reef, Philippines $13,334 with logging ban; based on mean hotel capacity, (i) continuation of logging as usual; (ii) logging ban (Hodgson & Dixon 1988) occupancy, and daily rates; and an assumed 10% annual decline in Bacuit Bay drainage basin. in tourism revenue due to degradation of seawater quality from sedimentation. 0 Tourism Valuation, * Productivity Change: NPV of tourism loss/sq km of reef CBAs for each reef-destroying activity estimate Indonesia Coral Reefs $3000-436,000 (from poison fishing); $3000-482,000 (blast the value of tourism loss. For each activity, reef (Cesar 1996) fishing or coral mining); $192,000 ( sedimentation); based on degradation causes a decrease in potential tourism assumptions regarding the rate of reef degradation associated revenue. All rates of change are based on with each practice. assumptions. Recreation, Galapagos * Productivity Change: $45/ha-lyr1 for the total protected area; based Classified as a productive use value within the National Park on maximum carrying capacity of 40,000 visitors/yr, and average "carrier function" category of environmental (de Groot 1992) expenditures per visit of $1300. functions. Vacation Value, Galapagos * Hedonic Demand Analysis: $312/day'lperson-' in 1986; based on a Value of a Galapagos vacation is regressed on National Park, Ecuador nonlinear regression using cost, duration, and itinerary data from duration, accommodation, and itinerary data; model (Edwards 1991) travel brochures, as well as cost and duration survey data. is differentiated with respect to duration to get the implicit price of a vacation day. Table A.la. continued Approach 0 Ecosystem and N Miscellaneous Notes including Original Study e < 9r Valuation Results Secondary Sources Education & Research - Marine Areas Belize Coral Reefs * $150,000/yr; based on annual expenditures by UK Coral Cay (Spurgeon 1992) Conservation to maintain 25 researchers on reefs in Belize. Panama Coral Reefs * $2.5 million in 1991; based on a percentage of the Smithsonian One-sixth of the 1991 $15 million budget is (Spurgeon 1992) Research Institute's budget for work in Panama. considered attributable to coral reefs in Panama. Galapagos National Park * $2.73/ha-lyr'; based on research expenditures, and expenditures Classified as a productive use value within the (de Groot 1992) on field courses, fellowships, training courses, education facilities "information function" category of environmental and materials. functions. Indirect Uses - Ecological Functions Coastal Protection, * Replacement Costs: US$22 billion; based on construction costs As reported in Spurgeon (1992). Philippine Coral Reefs of concrete tetrapod breakwaters to replace 22,000km2 of reef (McAllister 199 lb) protection. Coastal Protection, * Productivity Change: NPV of coastal protection/km2 of reef: CBAs for each reef-destroying activity include the Indonesia Coral Reefs $9000-193,000 (blast fishing); $12,000-260,000 (coral mining); cost of protective function losses. For each activity, (Cesar 1996) based on replacement costs, the rate of reef destruction from each reef destruction reduces the protective capability of activity, and the rate of decline in reef's ability to protect. the reef. The reef's loss of protective capability is linked linearly to its protective value. Organic Waste Treatment, * Replacement Costs: $58/ha-'yr' based on the costs of artificial Classified as a conservation value of the Park, in the Galapagos National Park purification technology; applies to marine area only. category of "regulation functions." (de Groot 1992) Biodiversity Maintenance, * Shadow Price: $4.9/ha'lyr'I which equals 10% of the market value Classified as a conservation value of the Park, in the Galapagos National Park of any activity reliant on biodiversity maintenance. category of "regulation functions." (de Groot 1992) Nature Protection, * $0.55/ha-lyr' nature protection; based on the park budget and Classified as a conservation value of the Park, in the Galapagos National Park the idea that money invested in conservation management category of "carrier functions." (de Groot 1992) should be seen as productive capital because of the environmental functions and socio-economic benefits provided by conservation. Table A.la. continued Approach -0 Ecosystem and N Miscellaneous Notes including Original Study q 119 Valuation Results Secondary Sources Habitat/Refugia Galapagos * Benefit Transfer: $7/ha-lyr1; based on the similarities of the Dutch Classified as a conservation value of the Park, in the National Park Wadden Sea and Galapagos estuarine areas, it was assumed that category of "regulation functions." (de Groot 1992) 10% of fishery in Galapagos depends on the nursery function provided by inlets and mangrove lagoons. Nitrogen Retention & * * $34/kg NPV for nitrogen abatement from wetland restoration; As reported in Barbier et al. (1997). Recycling, Gotland, Sweden based on (i) $1 00/person-lyr-' WTP for improved water quality; i (Gren 1995) (ii) a surface/ground water hydrological model; and (iii) the nitrogen absorptive capacity of wetlands. Natural Predator, Greater * Productivity Change: $670,000/% decline in Anolis Lizard As reported in Barbier et al (1994). and Lesser Antilles population; based on value of lost output when the lizard is not (Narain and Fisher 1994) there to feed on crop destroying insects. a Watershed Protection, * Productivity Change NPV: $12/ha'lyr' watershed protection value Watershed protection benefits were part of a social c Cameroon of fisheries; $2/halyr'1, flood control; $1/halyr-1, soil fertility cost benefit analysis of protecting the Korup National (Ruitenbeek 1992) maintenance; based on production losses resulting from Park Park. Values expressed in 1989 constant terms. deforestation, discount rate of 8%, and 513,800 "hectare-years". VALUATION STUDIES ASSOCIATED WITH WORLD BANK RESEARCH COMMITTEE PROJECT Option & Existence Values (for Habitats) Non-use Value Montego * CVM: Survey design specifically targeted to dealing with Summary available at: http://www.island.net/-hjr - Bay Coral Reefs lexicographic preferences through probing of zero bids and a (Spash et al. 1998) analysis of zero bids using tobit estimation. Expected WTP for tourists ranged from $1.17 to $2.98 for 25% coral reef . improvement; for locals range was $1.66 to $4.26. Upper values were for respondents perceiving strong moral duties and rights; lower were for no such duties/rights. Based on population characteristics, non-use NPV of Montego Bay reefs estimated to be US$19.6 million. Non-use Value Curacao * CVM: Similar survey design as Montego Bay study, above. Summary available at: http://www.island.net/hjr Coral Reefs Expected WTP for tourists ranged from $0.26 to $5.82; for locals (Spash et al 1998) range was $0.19 to $4.05. Based on population characteristics, non-use NPV of Curacao reefs estimated to be US$4.5 million. Table A.la. continued Approach 0 Ecosystem and i Miscellaneous Notes including Original Study 4 < 9' Valuation Results Secondary Sources Direct Use Values for Marine Areas-Harvested Products Artisanal Fisheries Valuation * * Productivity Change: Net Present Value US$1.31 million (1996); Full text available at: http://www.island.net/-hjr Montego Bay Coral Reefs includes trap, net, hand line and spearfishing by local fishers. (Gustavson 1998) Cost of inputs is deducted from gross values to arrive at net values. a Base case assumes shadow price of labor of 75% market rate; 100% market valuation leads to negative NPVs for fishing. Direct Use Values for Marine Areas - Recreation & Tourism Recreation Value Montego * * Productivity Change: Recreation NPV US$315 million (1996); Full text available at: http://www.island.net/-hjr Bay Coral Reefs includes tourist related accommodation, food & beverage, (Gustavson 1998) entertainment, transportation, retail and miscellaneous services. Cost of service provision is deducted from gross values to arrive at net values. Indirect Uses - Ecological Functions Coastal Protection, Montego * Productivity Change: Net Present Value US$65 million (1996); Full text available at: http://www.island.net/-hjr Bay Coral Reefs based on land values at risk or vulnerable to coastal erosion along (Gustavson 1998) foreshore. Author notes this is upper value and is dependent on erosion incidence assumptions in absence of reef, which are highly speculative. Other - Cost Effectiveness Analysis CEA of Interventions, * Estimates of cost-effectiveness of 8 specific interventions, with Full text available at: http://www.island.net/-hjr Montego Bay impacts normalized to coral reef abundance using fuzzy logic (Ruitenbeek et al. 1999a) model incorporating non-linear ecological and economic linkages. CEA approach uses continuous optimization of "intervention sets" and demonstrates non-transitivity of individual interventions. Indicates up to 20% coral reef abundance improvement possible at PV cost of US$153 million. Marginal costs rose from under $1 million/% to $29 million/% over a 42 hectare reef area. '-7 Table A.lb. Pharmaceutical genetic resource valuation studies relevant to coral reef management Approach Ecosystem and Miscellaneous Notes including Original Study V Valuation Results Secondary Sources Genetic Resources - Terrestrial Systems Value of Plants Used in * $203 million per successful species per year; based on 1980 Extended by Aylward (1993): $1.6 million per Pharmaceutical Industry US gross drug sales; survey data showing that 25% of all untested species per year based original study's stated (Farnsworth and Soejarto prescriptions contain one or more active plant-based agents; success rate of 1:125. 1985) and 40 plants account for those active agents. ,N Value of Plants Used in * * $1.5 trillion/yr total value of plant-based drugs (US & OECD); Extended by Aylward (1993): $37.5 billion per Pharmaceutical Industry based on value of a statistical life ($8 million, 1983$); percentage per successful species per year given 40 plants (Principe 1989ab) of lives saved by anticancer drugs (15%); and percentage of responsible for all plant-based drugs; $18.8 million drug-based anticancer drugs (40%). per untested species per year based on original a study's stated success rate of 1:2000. Value of Research Discovery * $7500 annual expected value of genetic discoveries to Cameroon; Extended by Aylward (1993): $150 per untested in Korup Park, Cameroon based on average patent values; 10 patentable discoveries per species per year assuming 500 species inhabit the " (Ruitenbeek 1989) year; and host country's ability to capture 10% of the rent from Korup forest area and a success rate of 10:500. the discoveries. Value of Tree Species Used * $250,000/yr gross value of a tree-derived pharmaceutical; Extended by Aylward (1 993): $7500 per untested in Pharmaceutical Industry based on global sales of plant-based drugs, and percentage species per year (1990$) based on original study's (McAllister 1991 a) of tree species likely to contain marketable pharmaceuticals stated success rate of 3: 100. (3%). a Value of Research * * $253,000 expected NPV per research discovery; based on Extended by Aylward (1993): Annual Value $253 Discovery in Costa Rica net drug sales, and a 5% royalty on revenue to host country per untested species based on original study's (Harvard Business School (Costa Rica). stated success rate of 1:10,000. [sic.] {The correct 1992) calculation would show NPV $25.30 per untested species. } Value of Plants and Land * * * $390 million per successful plant species per year based on Extended by Aylward (1993): Annual global to the Pharmaceutical 1990 US gross drug sales; $7 billion/yr based on the value of value per untested species: $819 using drug Industry, Rainforest lives saved ($4 million per life). Rainforest values: $0.01-$21/ha sales; $1.5 million using value of lives saved. Flora (Pearce and for success rates 1:1000 and 1:10,000; a 5% royalty; and 10% Based on original study's 5% royalty and 10% Puroshothaman 1992ab) rent capture by host country. rent capture rates; success rates 1:10,000 and 1:1000; and, a 4.2 multipler toconvert US estimate to global estimate. Table A.lb. continued Approach Ecosystem and i Miscellaneous Notes including Original Study 4 49 Valuation Results Secondary Sources Value of Biotic Samples * $52,500 NPV of agreement to supply 1000 biotic samples; based Extended by Aylward (1993): NPV $52.50 per (Reid et al. 1993b) on 3% royalty, 5% discount rate, $10 million annual net sales after untested species. Based on "sample to lead" success 10 yrs development, 15 yrs patent protection, and cumulative rate of 1:10,000. [sic.] {The correct calculation success rate of 1:40,000. would show NPV $5.25 per untested species.} Net Private and Social * Net return per biotic sample: $21.23 (private) to $33.91 (social); Estimates PV of net returns generated by a protected Returns to Biotic Samples based on NPV of a new drug source. Social cost model includes area containing 10,000 species; all species are and Biodiversity Protection costs of biodiversity protection and publicly provided taxonomic submitted to a single screening program and there is in Costa Rica (Aylward 1993) information. Success rate is 1:10,000. one success in the first year. Net Private and Social * Total Net return on 10,000 biotic samples: -$.98 million (social) Above model is modified to calculated the PV of net Returns to Biotic Samples to $4.91 million (private); based on net revenue to a new drug royalty returns on a collection of 10,000 species. Costa Rica source; 2% royalty, private and social costs as in above model. (Aylward 1993) Success rate is 1:10,000. Net Private and Social * Net Returns: $5 million (private); -$240 million (social); based Models the investment choices faced by a developing Returns to Biotic Samples on throughput of 2000 samples per year, protection for 500,000 country. Choices pertain to investment in under Various Distributional species over 600,000 ha, $233 per sample royalty, $213 per pharmnaceutical prospecting: (i) biodiversity Arrangements (Aylward 1993; sample in collection and classification fees, 40 prospecting years, protection; or, (ii) capacity expansion to produce Barbier and Aylward 1996) and 10% discount rate. species information. Value of Plants and Land * IF all potential drugs are discovered: $449 million NPV per Extended by Artuso (1997): $1.2 million per to Pharmaceutical Industry successful species for a total $147 billion NPV or $48/ha tropical tropical forest plant species given 125,000 plant (Mendelsohn and Balick forest; based NPV of a new drug source, and 328 plant-based species. 1995, 1997) drugs yet to be discovered and developed. Value of the Marginal * Value of marginal species: $9,000 based on 250,000 species Models the private pharmaceutical value of the in situ Plant Species to the to test, success rate of 1:83,333 and revenue to cost ratio "marginal species", which is valued on the basis of its Pharmaceutical Industry of 1.5. Sensitivity analysis: A success rate less than 1:12,500 incremental contribution to the probability of making (Simpson et al. 1996) reduces value to zero; revenue/cost ratio of 1.10 reduces value a commercial discovery. to $2.20. Value of Marginal * Maximum private value for endangered habitat: Estimates range Uses theory of island biogeography, marginal species Threatened Habitat to the from a low of $0.20/ha (California Floristic province) to high of value results (above), and data from Myer's (1988) Pharmaceutical Industry $20.63/ha in Western Ecuador (where there is high concentration 18 biodiversity "hot spots". (Simpson et aL 1996) of endemic plants). Table A.lb. continued Approach Ecosystem and a N Miscellaneous Notes including Original Study 4f '; - Valuation Results Secondary Sources Social Value of * Value of marginal species to consumers: $33,000; value of loss Uses a model of product differentiation which Marginal Species of 25% of all world's species: $111 billion; based on the accounts for consumer surplus. (Simpson and Craft 1996) existence of 10 million species available for screening, and global pharmaceutical sales and cost estimates. Social Value of Marginal * Value of marginal ha: Estimates range from a low of $29/ha Uses theory of island biogeography, marginal species Threatened Habitat to the (California Floristic province) to high of $2,888/ha in value results (above), and data from Myer's (1988) Pharmaceutical Industry Western Ecuador. 18 biodiversity "hot spots". (Simpson and Craft 1996) Value of Marginal Species * Value of marginal species when there exist 250,000 species: For each period the model maximizes the value of the when Research Intensity $2600; when there exist 1 million species: $0.0. Calculations collection by choosing the optimal collection size, is Optimal based on 500 therapeutic objectives, $125 million per new given the number of species remaining to be tested (Simpson and Sedjo 1996b) product; 5 year testing period and a 4% discount rate. and the variable costs of testing. Net Private and Social * * NPV per biotic extract before taxes: $487 (private) to $7671 Model treats R&D as a series of phases, each with Value of Biotic Extracts (social); based on NPV of new drug sources, and success rates specific revenues, costs, and success rates. (Artuso 1997) which vary with different stages of the R&D process. The cumulative success rate of the process is 1:111, 111. VALUATION STUDIES ASSOCIATED WITH WORLD BANK RESEARCH COMMITTEE PROJECT Genetic Resources - Marine Systems Value of Pharmaceuticals * Value of Montego Bay coral reef based on model incorporating Authors note sensitivity of results to assumptions in from Coral Reefs drug values, local bioprospecting costs, institutional costs, ecosystem yield and species-area (SA) relationships, (Ruitenbeek and Cartier discovery success rates for marine extracts, and a hypothetical which relied on SA estimates by Reaka-Kudla (1997) 1999) bioprospecting program for the area using National Cancer for global coral ecosystems. In base case S=cAz, Institute sampling protocols. Model highlights role of revenue z=0.265. Within potential range of z=0.2 to z=0.3, sharing arrangements and ecosystem yield in deriving total benefits NPV shifts from $85 million to $54 million and and marginal benefits. Average Net Social Value of species in base marginal benefit shifts from $72,500/ha to case is estimated to be $7775. Based on base case sampling $698,000/ha. program, total social NPV of Montego Bay reef area is Summary available at: http://www.island.net/-hjr US$70.09 million. First differential of the benefit function yields US$225,000/% or US$530,000/ha coral abundance. Annex A-Review of the Empirical Biodiversity Literature 219 in which leads to a change in reef productivity. The pro- Fisheries Management Authority. Price data were ob- ductivity change is measured in terms of output levels. tained by a brief survey of the fish and prawn markets. These approaches rely on ecological quantitative anal- Volume and price data yield an estimated gross financial ysis and ecological economic linkages. value of A$143 million (1996 dollars). The harvested products category includes a valuation The Hodgson and Dixon (1988) cost-benefit analysis of coral reef aquarium fish production. The estimate rep- (CBA) study estimates the gross revenue value of fisher- resents the gross financial value of the trade, and includes ies in Bacuit Bay, Palawan, with and without a logging an estimate of the potential change in value with improved scenario. It is the most complex of the coral reef valua- production practices. For its methodological interest, we tions examined in that it first undertakes a quantitative also include a study of harvested products in a wetland analysis of the natural systems affecting fisheries. Using habitat. It uses a relatively complex ecological economic environmental data, linkage coefficients are estimated to linkage model which treats habitat area as a variable in- determine: i) the relationships between sedimentation, put to fisheries production. coral cover and coral diversity; and, ii) the relationships Three types of weakness are often evident in these between fish biomass, coral cover and coral diversity. The types of valuations. First, and most serious, is that fisher- coefficients were obtained using linear regression anal- ies value is usually assumed to be its gross revenue, thus ysis; this implicitly assumes constant returns to scale of ignoring the opportunity cost of capital and labor in fishing the natural systems, a considerable simplification of the effort. Such gross value estimates for fisheries overstate functioning of natural systems. the net benefits from such activities and often make it A CBA study by Sawyer (1992) estimates the gross politically difficult to find other economically benign and revenue value of fish catch on Taka Bone Rate, an Indo- sustainable uses of a reef area. Second, the dynamics of nesian coral reef. In the absence of empirical natural the coral reef and surrounding natural systems are often system linkage models for the area, sensitivity analyses simplified, if not ignored. Perrings and Walker (1995) are conducted on the base year value of the fish catch. argue that the dynamics of natural systems are character- By simply assuming different rates for fish catch pro- istically highly non-linear, discontinuous, and sometimes ductivity change, net present value (NPV) estimates are irreversible around a range of critical thresholds. Third, calculated. a less obvious weakness of many of these approaches is For Indonesia, Cesar (1996) uses CBA to compare that they usually base harvest rates on some level of ex- the potential productive value of coral reef fisheries to traction effort that is implicitly assumed to be value-maxi- the value of those same fisheries in the presence of dif- mizing. In the simplest cases, current (observed) extrac- ferent threats to reef quality and productivity. Threats tion rates are assumed to occur in perpetuity, even though include poison fishing, blast fishing, overfishing, coral these may be either above the socially optimal rate (from mining, and sedimentation. Each threat is analyzed in the usual types of overfishing practices) or, more rarely, isolation from the others, and in terms of its net benefits below the optimal rate (e.g., where there are barriers to on a per square kilometre basis. Therefore, a hypothe- entry). Some analysts are more careful about this aspect tical reef area faces only one threat that provides a net of extraction and base their assessments on maximum private benefit to the individuals responsible for it, as sustainable yield (MSY) to introduce some form of sus- well as societal losses due to the detrimental treatment tainability constraint (Cesar 1996). Even in such cases, of the reef. however, it is important to note that MSY does not neces- Potential productivity of reef fisheries is that associ- sarily coincide with an economic optimum; standard fish- ated with an intact reef area and a level of effort that ery and bioeconomics texts (e.g., Clark 1976) teach us achieves the MSY of that area. Additional assumptions that it may be economically optimal to extract at rates about fish prices, labor, and other input costs provide a either below or above the MSY depending on the attributes net benefit valuation. The private net benefit of destruc- of the specific fishery. In cases where current harvest tive fishing practices is based on threat-specific assump- rates are used, it is likely that the methods overestimate tions regarding prices, effort, yield, input costs, the rate value, while estimates based on MSY will likely under- of coral death, the rate of yield decline, and the rate of estimate economic value. coral recovery, if any. Coral death and fishery yield are A recent study by Driml (1999) estimates the gross assumed to be linearly related. The societal loss to fisher- financial value for the commercial fishery of the Great ies is the difference between the net private benefit of the BarrierReef. Effort and catch data on selectedmajorcom- destructive fishing practice and the net benefit associated mercial fish species were obtained from the Queensland with the MSY level of effort. 220 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling In the cases of coral mining and sedimentation, there input is fixed. In the coral reef studies, the valuations, are only net losses to fisheries. Private benefits accrue in therefore, pertain to the total reef area as the input, not other sectors-construction and logging. Losses to reef increments thereof. fisheries from coral mining is the difference between the MSY of an intact reef and the yield of a gradually de- stroyed reef It is, therefore, based on assumptions re- Literature Relating to Recreation and garding the rate of coral destruction from mining and the Tourism Valuation associated yield decline. For the threat of sedimentation, the calculation of reef fisheries yield decline is based on The recreation and tourism direct use value attributable the ecological linkage coefficient estimates of Hodgson to a coral reef is usually estimated by accounting for the and Dixon (1988). tourism revenue generated by a particular coral reef holi- In an often-cited study of the value of the Philippines day destination. From a utility perspective, these values coral reefs, McAllister (1988) calculates the change in ignore the consumer surplus generated by the recreation fisheries productivity as a result of reef damage from experience and, as a result, underestimate the value of the dynamiting, poisoning, and muro-ami fishing. The valu- recreation experience. From a production perspective, ation methodology is simply a comparison of current gross tourism revenue-the figure most often calculated- yields with potential yields. The productive area of the ignores the labor and capital costs of supplying the serv- reef (some 33,000 km2 out of a total 44,000 km2) is dis- ices, as well as the costs associated with the environmen- aggregated according to its condition-poor, fair, good, tal impacts of tourism. or excellent. The yield associated with each condition is Another problem with using tourism revenue relates calculated and the total yield for the productive area is to the bundling of a vacation destination's attributes. compared with the potential yield were the entire reef in When a coral reef is just one attribute of the bundle, tour- good condition. ism revenue cannot be solely attributable to the reef. The McAllister (1988) also estimates foregone eamings more important the reef attribute in the vacation experi- in the production of marine aquarium fish. Sodium cya- ence bundle, the higher the proportion or tourist revenue nide, which damages the reef and reduces the price of the that can be attributable to the reef. In any case, the basic final product (net caught tropical fish command a higher problems of using gross revenue and ignoring associated price), is typically used for gathering marine fish. Based costs persist. on the reported value of the Philippines' trade in aquarium In Table A. 1 a, most of the studies focusing on coral fish, the author estimates that a 50% increase in value reef recreation and tourism estimate consumer surplus could be realized if the aquarium fish were produced on a using a travel cost method (TCM) or a CVM; however, sustainable basis. three studies-Driml (1999) for the Great Barrier Reef, For the Galapagos National Park, de Groot (1992) Cesar (1996) for Indonesia, and Hodgson and Dixon estimates the gross financial value of legally traded orna- (1988) for Bacuit Bay-take the gross revenue approach. mental goods, local fish and crustacean harvest, and the The study of Negril, Jamaica, by Wright (1995) combines value of construction materials. Associated capital and the CVM and the TCM. Two studies valuing recreation labor costs are excluded from the calculations, as is any in the Galapagos are included for comparison with each consideration of the functioning of the underlying natural other-one uses a gross revenue approach, while the other systems providing these products. employs hedonic demand analysis. For methodological interest, a wetland valuation study Australia's Great Barrier Reef (GBR) is probably the of marine harvested products is included in Table A. Ia. most studied reef in the world. Since 1975, several eco- Bell (1989) takes a marginal valuation approach to fish- nomic studies of the GBR have been conducted, most eries in a Florida wetland. The incremental value of a commissioned by the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park hectare of wetland habitat is assumed to be equal to the Authority (Driml et al. 1997). Table A. la includes the marginal productivity of the wetland-dependant fisheries. most recent estimate of the GBR's gross financial value The study estimates a non-linear bioeconomic production (Driml 1999), as well as consumer surplus estimates for function for fisheries. The approach is similar to those recreational fishing, visits to the "reef region", and visits described above for coral reef fisheries, although the speci- to coral sites within this region (Hundloe et al. 1987). fication of the production function is more complex. The Driml (1999) estimates the gross financial value of area of the wetland habitat input is variable, whereas in tourism to the GBR for the 1995-96 period. It is an update the coral reef studies, the area of the coral reef habitat of an earlier estimate by the same author. The calculation Annex A-Review of the Empirical Biodiversity Literature 221 focuses on commercial tourism (reef trips, accommoda- cost of supply, the decrease in tourism volume as a result tion, resort packages) and recreational fishing and boat- of coral degradation is calculated. The value ofthe change ing. Data pertaining to the volume and price of reef visits, in tourism revenue is then used as input into a CBA. total visitor nights at island resorts and elsewhere, and an Various ecological and economic analyses have been estimate of average daily tourist expenditure yields a value conducted for Bonaire, Netherlands Antilles. Dixon et al. of A$647 million (1996 dollars) for commercial tourism. (1993) calculates gross revenues from tourism, the carry- The value of recreational fishing and boating was esti- ing capacity of coral sites, and the consumer surplus asso- mated using earlier survey work by Blamey and Hundloe ciated with diving in the Bonaire Marine Park. Arguing (1993) and current records of registered private boats that quality diving is the primary attribute of Bonaire, the adjacent to the park. Survey data showed that 63% of researchers calculate gross revenues from dive-based tour- registered private boats are used for recreational fishing; ism of US$23.2 million. Capital and labor costs asso- the data also provided an estimate of average yearly ex- ciated with providing tourism services are not included penditure on recreational fishing and boating. With these in the estimate. Dixon et al. (1993) also conduct a CVM data, Driml (1999) calculates recreational fishing and boat- survey of divers and calculate a consumer surplus of ing in the GBR to be worth A$123 million (1996 dollars). US$325,000 for divers in 1992. Hundloe et al. (1987) first uses the TCM to estimate Also for dive-based tourism in the Bonaire Marine the consumer surplus for both domestic and international Park, Pendleton (1995) estimates net revenue and con- tourists to the reef region. The reef region comprises all sumer surplus for 1991. Net revenue is calculated using the islands and reefs within the outer boundaries of the net revenue and local ownership data (obtained from Great Barrier Reef region. The study then isolates the Bonaire's Department of Revenue and its Tourism Cor- consumer surplus associated with visits to coral sites. poration). Consumer surplus is calculated using the TCM. Coral sites are areas within the region where coral can be The travel demand function uses marine park permit data viewed. For this, travel cost data was collected from (which provides tourist origin data) and surveys of vaca- visitors who had visited or planned to visit coral sites as tioners. Net revenue ranges from US$7.9 to US$8.8 mil- part of their visit. lion/yr; estimated consumer surplus is US$19 million/yr. The consumer surplus associated with visits to the Arguing for a project appraisal approach for the valu- region is calculated to be A$144 million/yr; the surplus ation of resource protection, Pendleton (1995) also esti- associated with visits to coral sites within the region is mates the NPV of the Bonaire Marine Park to the local A$ 106 million/yr. However, the researchers felt that the economy and to tourists. For the NPV calculation, it is latter estimate still included all the attributes of the reef assumed that the park is just being established. Capital region valued by those who had come to view coral as and operating cost estimates are taken from Dixon et al. part of their vacation package. To calculate the consumer (1993); net benefits (revenue and consumer surplus) are surplus of only the coral sites, with all other attributes of the Pendleton (1995) estimates. Over a 20 year period, at the region removed, a CVM study was conducted that a 10% discount rate, the NPV of the park to the local focused only on tourists visiting the reef sites. The result- economy is US$74.21 million and the NPV of consumer ant consumer surplus was estimated to be A$6 million/ surplus enjoyed by tourists is US$179.66 million. yr; this might be regarded as a lower bound of the direct Using the TCM, Leeworthy (1991) estimates consumer recreational value of the reef. surplus for the John Pennekamp Coral Reef State Park. In another example of isolating the coral reef attribute Survey data obtained from over 300 people includes the of a vacation site, a study of Negril, Jamaica, estimates number of trips taken to the park in the past year, round the consumer surplus of Negril as a vacation destination, trip mileage, travel time, activities undertaken at the park, as well as that part of the surplus attributable solely to the and various socioeconomic data. Nine model specifica- coral reef attribute of the vacation experience. Wright tions using linear and semi-log functional forms are esti- (1995) begins by conducting a CVM survey to determine mated. Consumer surplus estimates derived from the semi- the value of coral reef quality to vacationers. The study log forms are rejected on the basis that the magnitudes then uses the TCM to estimate a demand curve and the were out of range of previous studies. The results of two related consumer surplus for a Negril vacation experience. linear models are accepted based on data fit and respec- Assuming a parallel shift (downward) ofthe demand curve, tive consumer surplus estimates. The two models differ the study then nets out the consumer surplus associated only in that one included the opportunity cost of time; it is with maintaining coral reef quality in its current condi- found that inclusion ofthis variable significantly increased tion. From the shift, and further assuming a fixed average consumer surplus estimates in all the model specifications. 222 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling The Hodgson and Dixon (1988) CBA of logging in and non-park expenses. Doing so, he arrives at US$1,300 Bacuit Bay, Palawan, includes a benefit calculation for per visitor for a Galapagos vacation experience. The tourism. The productivity change and gross revenue ap- analysis then assumes 40,000 tourists per year to arrive at proach uses hotel capacity, occupancy, and rate data to a gross tourist revenue of US$52 million/yr. For com- calculate base year tourism revenue. In the logging sce- parison with other park values, recreation value is then nario, which involves coral reef degradation, dive-based put on a per hectare basis using both the marine and ter- tourism revenue is reduced by 10%/yr to a level of zero restrial area of the park. about half way through the forecast period. The present Edwards (1991) takes a far more complicated approach value of tourism revenue is assumed as solely attributable to the estimation primarily because, for tax policy analy- to the condition of the coral reef and is then calculated for sis, a vacation demand curve is needed. Edwards decided inclusion in the CBA. that the heterogeneity of the packages (in terms of cost For Indonesia, Cesar (1996) uses CBA to compare and travel itineraries) precluded the use of the standard the potential productive value of reef-based tourism to its regression analysis using time series or travel cost data. value in the presence of poison fishing, blast fishing, and Therefore, a two-stage modeling exercise is used to coral mining. CBAs are conducted for each threat, in estimate both implicit prices and a demand curve.3 The isolation from the other threats. The potential tourism average implicit price of a Galapagos vacation day turns value of a hypothetical reef area is estimated as a range, out to be US$312, which means, according to the esti- the bottom of which represents a low potential tourism mated demand curve, that 7.3 vacation days will be de- scenario and the top of which represents a high potential manded. Given these two figures, the average price of a tourism scenario. The low potential value is an average vacation in the Galapagos is US$2,278 per visitor; in- of the net revenue generated in an area of no tourism and cluding a minor tax brings the total price to US$2,318 that generated in an area of moderate tourism. The high per visit. potential value is an average of the net revenue generated Although the price per visitor in the Edwards (1991) in an area of moderate tourism and that generated in an study is almost twice that used by de Groot (1992), gross area ofmajor tourism. A case study of tourism in Lombok tourist revenue calculated by Edwards is only US$39 provides an estimate of net revenue in an area of major million/yr compared to de Groot's US$52 million/yr. The tourism potential; data gathered in Ambon provide an difference stems from the level of tourist volume used in estimate of net revenue in an area of moderate tourism each calculation. de Groot assumes that the maximum potential. The net benefit estimates are on a per square carrying capacity of the islands is 40,000 visitors per year, kilometre of reef basis and represent a 25 yr period dis- which also equals tourist volume. However, in the counted at 10%. Edwards study, tourist volume is determined by the esti- The societal losses in tourism productivity are based mated demand curve, which provides the number of va- on threat-specific assumptions regarding the percentage cation days demanded at any given price, and the 1986 and type (low or high tourism potential) of reef area af- park limit of 125,000 visitor days per year. At the aver- fected. The valuation also incorporates assumptions of age (implicit) price of US$312, 7.3 days are demanded rates of tourism declines, from its potential level, in re- and the 125,000 visitor days per year limit therefore im- sponse to reef degradation. In general, tourism declines plies 17,123 tourists. sharply after poisoning, blasting, or mining begins. The cost to tourism of sedimentation and pollution is based on cost estimates of the abatement measures that would Literature Relating to Education and be required to address the problem. Research Values Two recreation valuation studies of the Galapagos National Park are interesting in terms of their different Gross financial expenditures are typically used to estimate approaches, the impacts of their assumptions, and the the education and research value of coral reef habitats. resultant valuations. de Groot (1992) calculates gross The expenditures include food, lodging, and fees for re- revenues to estimate the value of tourism; Edwards (1991) searchers and educators; boats and diving gear; and re- also calculates gross tourism revenues but does so via a search and education facilities and equipment. Multiplier hedonic demand analysis. Both estimates were done effects associated with these initiatives are not estimated. around the same time period-1987. The valuation of economic benefits associated with in- The de Groot study estimates the price of a Galapagos formation generated by the research has not yet been vacation by adding up average transportation, and park attempted. Annex A-Review of the Empirical Biodiversity Literature 223 An inherent weakness of all of these studies, which support for agriculture, and watershed protection by a base their methodologies on expenditure estimates, is that rainforest. they simply provide a measure of direct economic impact McAllister (1991b) estimates the protection function and say little about the efficiency of such expenditures or value of coral reefs in the Philippines by calculating the of the optimal level of such expenditures. Their connec- costs of replacing the reefs with artificial devices to pro- tion to economic benefits is somewhat specious, although tect the coast. This type of calculation is considered to they may to some degree be construed as some revealed be minimum estimate of the protection value afforded by willingness-to-pay for having access to a particular reef reef because: i) delayed response time could mean that area of research interest. terrestrial productivity is lost in the interim; and, ii) artifi- Spurgeon (1992) places values on the education and cial devices will forever need maintenance. The estimate research value of coral reefs in Panama and Belize. The obtained by McAllister (199 lb) is based on the per unit estimates are based on coral reef budget allocations of area cost of installing a certain type of barrier (concrete research funding institutions in the United States and the tetrapod devices) and multiplying that unit cost by the United Kingdom. Costs associated with the research are length of coastline fringed by coral reefs. The estimate excluded but, because the payment is coming from off- does not allow for variations in the protective require- shore, capital and labor are not being reallocated within ments along the coastline, given varying rates of coastal Panama or Belize and the expenditure, therefore, repre- erosion and levels of economic activity. sents a pure benefit to those countries. Environmental For Indonesia, Cesar (1996) uses CBA to compare the costs associated with using a reef as a research focus are potential value ofthe coastal protection function of a coral usually considered to be minimal, unless the research reef to its value as it succumbs to the impacts of blast involves significant extraction levels of reef organisms. fishing and coral mining. Replacement costs are used to For the Galapagos, de Groot (1992) estimates sepa- estimate the potential value of the function. Calculated rately expenditures on research and expenditures on edu- on a per square kilometre basis and discounted over a 25 cation. In the calculation, it is not clear who finances these year period, a range of values is estimated with low and activities. To the extent that the Ecuadorian government high scenarios. The low scenario is an average of land provides money, the costs of supply should be deducted value and replacement costs in, respectively, remote and from gross expenditures. de Groot (1992) goes on to es- moderately built-up areas. The high scenario is an aver- timate the potential value of education and research by age of replacement costs in moderately built-up areas and assuming that only half of the maximum sustainable use those in areas with major infrastructure. The CBAs treat level of the islands is currently being utilized. The final blast fishing and coral mining separately; the hypotheti- value of education and research to the Galapagos is, there- cal reef faces only one threat at a time. In each analysis, fore, double the level of current expenditures. the value of the societal loss of the reef's protective func- tion is the decline in the potential value of the protective function as the reef is destroyed. The yearly losses in pro- Literature Relating to tective function value are based on threat-specific assump- Ecological Function Valuations tions regarding the rate of reef destruction, the point at which the level of destruction starts to impair the ability Ecological functions provided by coral reefs include: of the reef to provide coastline protection, and the ability i) biological support to other ecosystems and organisms; of the reef to recover. ii) physical protection to terrestrial and other marine habi- In the Galapagos, de Groot (1992) estimates values tats; and, iii) global life support through calcium and, for a number of ecological functions. A fishery nursery potentially, carbon storage. For Indonesia (Cesar 1996) function value of the Galapagos refugia is estimated us- andthe Philippines (McAllister 1991b), values for coastal ing a benefit transfer approach. Based on similarities of protection have been estimated. For the Galapagos, the Dutch Wadden Sea and Galapagos estuarine areas, de Groot (1992) estimates the value of biological func- de Groot (1992) assumes that 10% of the Galapagos fish- tions. The economic value of coral reefs for their carbon eries is dependant on the inlets and lagoons of the park. and calcium storage functions has not been attempted, He also estimates the waste recycling function of the although there exist volume estimates of their carbon and Galapagos marine area by calculating the cost of artificial calcium storage capacities. Table A.la includes valuation purification technology. The valuation is based on an studies of ecological functions associated with other habi- estimate of the total recycling capacity of the Galapagos tats-nutrient recycling function in wetlands, biological sea shelf and the unit cost of recycling organic waste. 224 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling Finally, de Groot (1992) estimates values of two biologi- about by the introduced genetic material. We review a cal support functions-"biodiversity maintenance" and number of these here for completeness, but note that while "nature protection". Arguing that biodiversity mainte- valuable lessons can be learned from such models, many nance is a necessary precondition to other functions and of the specific empirical valuation techniques are less ap- human activities, de Groot (1992) assumes a shadow price plicable at this time to coral reef valuation. Most marine of 10% of the value of any activity directly or indirectly genetic product potential is associated with information dependant upon this function. Activities included all the contained in the resources, rather than with the genetic productive uses, ranging from recreation to education and material itself. This makes the pharmaceutical potential research. According to de Groot (1992), the nature pro- of marine products a more obvious bioprospecting target tection function relates to the value to society associated than the agricultural (or maricultural) potential. with preserving natural areas of particular naturalness, Bioprospecting model development in the literature diversity, and uniqueness. The budget of the Galapagos has tended to be isolated in two distinct areas-agricul- National Park Service is used to estimate the value of this ture and pharmaceuticals. Both have similar foundations, particular function. consistent with the constructs and models of Evenson and The remaining three studies illustrate the valuation of Kislev (1976) who described a general model for valuing ecological functions in other habitats. Gren (1995) es- applied research. But distinct literatures have developed timates the nitrogen retention and recycling function of in agricultural and pharmaceutical modeling development. wetlands in Gotland, Sweden. The approach is quite com- This has arisen because of different technical aspects of plex in comparison to those described above. It involved: bioprospecting in these fields, as well as different policy i) a natural systems hydrological model; ii) an estimate concems. of the absorptive capacity of wetlands; and, iii) a CVM analysis to determine the WTP for improved water qual- Technical Issues ity by area residents. Narain and Fisher (1994) estimate the value of the biological support function of a lizard in The manner in which new genetic material enters the pro- the Caribbean's Greater and Lesser Antilles. The Anolis duction process differs among industries. In agriculture, lizard feeds on insects that are detrimental to various ex- genetic material is used directly by transferring desirable port crops. Using a production change approach, the study genes identified in donor species to recipient species. The estimates the change in agricultural output associated with transfer is done using either traditional hybridization a decline in the lizard population. In the final study sur- methods involving the sexual crossing of closely related veyed, the value of the watershed protection function of species, or it is done using biotechnology techniques of the Korup, Cameroon, tropical rainforest is estimated by modem genetic manipulation. These methods enable the Ruitenbeek (1992). This function provides flood control development of crop varieties with improved yield, in- and maintains soil fertility. Assuming a logging scenario, built microbial pesticides, particular environmental adap- the study uses a change in productivity approach to value tation traits, nitrogen-fixing capabilities, disease resistance, lost agricultural output associated with flooding and loss and retarded spoilage rates. of soil fertility. By contrast, in the pharmaceutical industry, new ge- netic material is most often used indirectly; the biological material is not transferred from one species to another as Genetic Resource Valuation Models in in agriculture. Instead, the genetic information provided Agriculture-Some Lessons by the material is used to develop new products unrelated to the original source. Pharmaceutical companies screen Genetic resources are important for providing the scien- life forms, or samples of life forms, in search of chemical tific information necessary for the production of new and compounds with particular biological activities-antivi- improved food sources, new pharmaceuticals, new chemi- ral, antifungal, antileukemic, anticoagulant, etc. Once cals, and new environmental protection strategies (e.g., identified and if considered to have pharmaceutical po- micro-organisms to aid the degradation of toxic waste or tential, such a compound is usually then synthesized from to reduce agricultural chemical dependence). The eco- its basic chemical constituents. Should it proceed suc- nomic value of genetic resources has been most studied cessfully through the research and development (R&D) in the agricultural sector where they enter the production process, it then enters production for human use. process directly. Valuations attribute actual production Bioprospecting values are, thus, also derived some- changes in particular crops to the improvements brought what differently in agriculture and pharmaceuticals. In Annex A-Review of the Empirical Biodiversity Literature 225 both cases, the actual value associated with biodiversity system yield of useful information. Management and is closely tied to the type of information provided, as op- ownership of marine and near-offshore resources is a prob- posed to any particular material good (Swanson 1996). lematic topic in most jurisdictions, and the entire disci- In the case of pharmaceuticals, this information provides pline of integrated coastal zone management (ICZM) is a stock of ideas that can be used to synthesize key com- targeting such problems through what are, by and large, pounds, often establishing new products and markets institutional reforms and interventions. (WCMC 1994a). In the field of plant genetic resources, however, the information itself provides direct genetic in- Lessons formation that can be introduced into other economic spe- cies or crops that already have a market (WCMC 1994b). Numerous studies estimate the economic value of new genetic material to various agricultural crops (Prescott- Policy Issues Allen and Prescott-Allen 1988; WCMC 1992, 1994b). Table A.2 contains a selection of the earlier studies based Efforts in agricultural valuation have been driven by policy on a review conducted by the World Conservation Moni- questions that address issues such as food security, farm toring Centre. Basically, these valuations involve exam- incomes, and efficient research methods in a market where ining the total change in yield and attributing the cause of end products, such as food crops, are dominated by open the change between a technology component (e.g., ferti- competition (Evenson et al. 1998). Much of the research lizer and pesticide use, tillage, machinery) and a genetic work in agricultural prospecting is funded through public component. Most valuations are general in that value is institutions and intemational agencies. In agriculture, attributed to the "genetic component". However, some modeling has addressed distributional concems related valuations are more focused, attributing value to the spe- to the improvement of farm level incomes and the social cific trait transferred in the genetic material. All gener- benefits arising from incorporating traits in improved crop ally attribute substantial values to the crop improvements varieties (see Smale 1995, 1998; Smale et al. 1995). Also, and, implicitly or explicitly, to the research and develop- it has often focused on the valuation of genetic traits and ment activities that resulted in such improvements. optimization of the search paths for finding economically More recent work has further affirmed many of these useful traits within large samples (often maintained in ex values. Extensive investigations conducted through the situ collections; e.g., Gollin and Smale 1998). More re- Intemational Maize and Wheat Improvement Center cently, policy concems have focused on genetically modi- (CIMMYT) in Mexico have paid particular attention to fled (GM) crops using transfers of genetic materials.4 economic issues associated with crop genetic resources; Impacts of GM crops and biotechnology in developing these are reported in a comprehensive edited volume by countries pose a wide range of policy issues that extend Smale (1998).5 Interestingly, in the preface to that vol- from food security to property rights and institutional ume, Timothy Reeves and Prabhu Pingali, as Directors capacity (Zilberman et al. 1998). of CIMMYT, emphasize the importance both of ex situ By contrast, the pharmaceutical bioprospecting litera- conservation of genetic resources, which they construe ture was, initially, dominated by policy concems relating as gene banks, and of in situ conservation of genetic re- to the in situ conservation of wild genetic resources (e.g., sources, which they define as "farmer's fields". This is a "drugs from the rainforest"). The intensely private-and key attribute of cultivated agricultural resource; in situ often seemingly monopolistic-nature of new drug patent- resource conservation and stewardship is at a managed ing and development, coupled with long testing periods, farm level and often deals with known traits. By contrast, has meant that institutional questions frequently dominate pharmaceutical genetic resource conservation issues typi- discussions relating to valuation. Most models remain cally deal with wild resources, having unknown traits or relatively detenninistic; only more recently have concems characteristics. Agricultural models focusing on known such as optimal research paths entered the pharmaceuti- traits have thus found limited applicability in the pharma- cal bioprospecting literature (Artuso 1998). Moreover, ceutical valuation literature. the role of ecosystem and habitat conservation and their Nonetheless, there are a number of general lessons potential yields of "new" species add a dimension that is that can be gleaned from the agricultural bioprospecting often absent from discussions in the agricultural biopros- modeling. Among the more important lessons are: pecting literature. - Search methods can influence values. Optimal search In the case of marine systems, the issues are further models consistently show that economic values can complicated by ownership concems and the perceived change significantly, depending on search methods (e.g., 226 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling stages of search). Agricultural models typically try to Evenson and Lemari6 (1998) has modeled optimal introduce some methods relating to optimal search; such search within a context of multiple traits and multiple methods are typically lacking from pharmaceutical potential target geographic locations, where individual bioprospecting models. site characteristics may have different distributions of Value is a function of complex interactions. Work on traits available for search and may have different cost cost-effectiveness analysis within agricultural genetic structures involved with the search. They observe that prospecting (Pardey et al. 1998) illustrates that opti- some sites may be particularly good targets for bio- mal search strategies influence concurrently both the prospecting activities. Specifically, Evenson and costs and benefits of prospecting. It is thus not usually Lemari6 (1998, p.91) note: "When altemative (substi- adequate to model costs or benefits in isolation of each tute) resources exist, collection costs can lead to shifts other in sources by regions. If a small region is a relatively rich source for a particular trait, collection costs may MDistribution of values is an important policy concern be low, and marginal values may be high. It will al- Much of the agrcultural literature is concened with ways pay to collect from such a region when profits who gains" from genetic resource development and are maximized independently and will almost always what sorts of institutional structures might be most ef- pay to do so even when they are maximized jointly." fective and fair. Models that reflect such distributional From a modeling perspective, this implies one should elements will receive greater policy attention. pay attention to site-specific characteristics and, ide- * Geography is important. In contrast to the early work ally, how these might relate to global conditions. For of Evenson and Kislev (1976), which focused on sin- systems such as coral reefs, this insight is particularly gle trait optimal search models, more recent work by applicable. Table A.2. Early survey of the value of genetic contributions in agriculture. Crop Locationa Production effect of genetic resources Study Value to Cultivated Varieties Maize USA 1985 to 1989 US$2.3 million/yr to North Dakota Frohberg (1991) Rice Asia Green Revolution US$1.5 billion/yr Walgate (1990) Wheat Asia Green Revolution US$2.0 billion/yr Walgate (1990) Barley USA 1930 to 1980 50% of doubled yield increase OTA (1987) Sorghum USA 1950 to 1980 1% to 2% yield increase Miller and Kebede (1984) Pearl millet India 1992 US$200 million/yr ICRISAT (1990) Potato USA 1930 to 1980 50% of a four-fold yield increase OTA (1987) Soybeans USA 1902 to 1977 79% of 23.7 kg ha-' yr1 yield increase Specht and Williams (1984) Tomato USA 1930 to 1980 50% of a three-fold yield increase OTA (1987) Value of Specific Genetic Traits Transferred to Cultivated Varieties Wheat Turkey Disease resistance: US$50 million/yr Witt (1985) Barley Ethiopia Protection from Yellow Dwarf Virus: Witt (1985) US$160/yr to California Hops Reduced bittemess in beer: Witt (1985) US$15 million/yr to British brewing industry Beans Mexico Protection from bean weevil: 25% of stored Rhoades (1991) beans in Africa; 15% in South America Grapes Texas New root stock: revitalized European wine Rhoades (1991) industry after decimation by louse infection a In the case of the transfer of genetic traits, location refers to that of donor species. Source: World Conservation Monitoring Centre (1992). Annex A-Review of the Empirical Biodiversity Literature 227 Genetic Resource Valuation Models in Early Models of Gross Economic Benefits Pharmaceuticals-A Review Farnsworth and Soejarto (1985); Pearce and Most modeling efforts to value genetic resources for Puroshothaman (1992ab); Principe (1989ab) pharmaceutical use have taken a change in production The first group of studies to estimate the economic value approach. The value of preserving a species for pharma- . . r of genetic resources to the pharmaceutical industry em- ceutical use is based on the potential value of an unknown ployed three types of data: total drug sales, an estimate of or untested species in the production of a new drug. It is the number of plant-based drug sales as a percentage of clear from the wide range of models that: i) they often total drug sales, and the number of plant species respon- attempt to address somewhat different policy problems; . f .. . . ~~~~~~~~~~sible for the plant-based drugs (Famnsworth and Soejarto and, ii) they attempt, in various ways, to show how se- and, ii. they attempt, in various ways, to show how se- 1985; Principe 1989ab). Modifications to these valuations lected issues or exogenous factors can influence "values involved the addition of estimates of the value of lives The early models use gross revenues of all plant-based saved through the use of plant-based drugs (Pearce and drugs to impute a value for individual plant species re- Puroshothaman 1992ab; Principe 1989ab). These stud- sponsible for those drugs. More recent models estimate the net revenues from hypothetical new drugs; these make ies produced gro vespattible to the 40t"ses an~~~~~~~~~ readn.h ubrsuc,adboi ful" plants that were responsible for all the plant-based an ass-umption regarding the nuinber of species or biotic drugs in the pharmaceutical industry.6 A typical calcula- samples required to find a new drug source, and thereby calculate an average value for those species. Another modeling approach is to calculate the marginal value of a VPD = (rp x S x P,,g ) / 40 species. In this case, net revenues are used to calculate where VPD = total value of plant-based drugs; the change in the value of a collection of species when rp =percent of prescriptions containing one or one more species is added. more ingredients derived from plants; Some modeling efforts have used a royalty approach S = total value of prescription drugs; and, to value genetic resources. In one, an assumed royalty is Pavg = average pnce of a prescription. applied to the average patent value of a new drug (Ruiten- Using this approach, Famsworth and Soejarto (1985) beek 1989). In two other models, an assumed royalty is estimate that each of the 40 plant species used to derive applied to an estimate of net new plant-based drug rev- the plant-based drugs is worth US$203 million to the enues (Harvard Business School 1992; Reid et al. 1993b). United States. Principe (1 989ab) extends the calculation Table A. lb summarizes the approaches and results of to include drug sales in the OECD and the value of lives genetic resource valuation studies. Below, the frequently saved from plant-based cancer drugs. From Principe's cited early and recent studies are discussed in greater work, the 40 plant species are potentially worth US$37.5 detail. Most of the studies take a change in production billion each. approach or explicitly attempt to value rents; Aylward Pearce and Puroshothaman (1992ab) modify and up- (1993) also estimates a royalty-based model. date the Principe (1989ab) data to calculate the average It should come as little surprise that many of the model value of the 40 plant species responsible for the bulk of results are exceedingly sensitive to key economic or bio- plant-based drugs to be US$390 million per plant, and physical assumptions; many models that generate positive possibly as high as US$7 billion per plant. The authors values in a base case scenario return negative, or signifi- extend the model to calculate the average value of a hec- cantly smaller, values when tested under different, yet still tare of rainforest: plausible, sets of assumptions. For example, a great deal VRL = (NR x p x r X a x VP) / H of attention is often paid to what are loosely called "hit rates", or the basic probability of success in developing a where VRL = per hectare value of rainforest land; commercial drug from some randomly sampled species, N = number of plnties at ris (60,000); . . ' ~~~~~~p = success rate of finding a new plant-based natural product, or extract. While it is often assumedthat drug source (1: 10,000 to 1:1,000); such hit rates are exogenously determined, akin to rolling r = royalty rate on a new drug source (5%); a many-sided die, they are in fact themselves an endoge- a = amount of value that a host country can cap nously determined variable within pharmaceutical screen- ture from a new drug source (10% to 100%); ing processes (Box A.2). Such complexities further com- VP = value of a plant-based drug source (US$0.39 plicate numerical analyses in an area often complicated to US$7.00 billion); and, by secrecy agreements or other data gathering constraints. H = number of hectares of rainforest (1 billion). 228 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling Box A.2. Success rate determinants in pharmaceutical bioprospecting. For a prospecting program as a whole, a high success rate is desirable. However, given that research and development (R&D) costs per extract increase with each phase, low success rates in the individual screen- ing phases may be desirable to reduce the costs associated with ultimately unsuccessful leads. To some degree, prospecting firms can manipulate the success rates of the early R&D phases by specifying the composition of the collection, and by adjusting the technical parameters of the screens. In general, success rates can be manipulated by: * Using prior information (e.g., ethnobiological, ecological, biomedical) to collect extracts for testing against specific therapeutic targets; * Reducing the chemical similarity of extracts within a collection by increasing the taxonomical diversity of that collection; * Adjusting screening parameters to affect the number of extracts that proceed through to the isolation and dereplication phase of the program; and, * Using new sources of biological material for those therapeutic targets that have been the subject of many prospecting programs. The prospecting strategy for the collection may be random selection, using little or no prior species information, or it can be rational selection, using prior ethnobiological, ecological, or biomedical information. There may be numerous therapeutic targets against which the extracts are tested, or there may be as few as one target. There is some empirical evidence that programs utilizing prior information to find leads for a small number of therapeutic targets have higher success rates in the exploratory stage than programs using no prior information. Success rates can also be increased by using a taxonomically diverse collection for investigation. Generally, a diverse collection is more likely to be chemically dissimilar, and will consequently yield a greater number of novel compounds; hence, the discovery of one will not severely reduce the prob- ability of discovering another within the same collection. Through the treatment of the extracts, the phase-specific success rates are manipulated. Screening sensitivities can be adjusted to obtain relatively low or high hit rates from a given collection. Since R&D costs per extract increase with each phase, reducing the cost of a screening program means identifying and dropping ultimately unsuccessful leads (false positives) as soon as possible. Low success rates in the screening phases would achieve that end. For example, adjusting the screens to identify common com- pounds early would permit only extracts with relatively rare compounds to proceed to a subsequent isolation and dereplication phase, thereby increasing the success rate of this more costly phase of R&D. However, setting the screens to achieve low success rates will also mean foregoing potentially promising leads (false negatives). A factor beyond the control of the individual prospecting firm is the amount of existing research that has been conducted involving the particular therapeutic targets. The more existing research there is, the more likely that relatively rare compounds, reactive with the targets, have already been discovered and investi- gated. However, a different bioassay of the same extract may prompt bioactivity, revealing previously missed compounds. Furthermore, a collection consisting of biological material drawn from under-investigated sources (such as marine ecosystems) is more likely to yield novel compounds than material drawn from more stud- ied sources (such as tropical forests). The Artuso (1997) model allows for phase-specific success rates that could reflect the prospecting strategy and the screening parameters of an individual prospecting program. A complication to the basic model also allows for a declining rate of success in the isolation and dereplication phase to account for the probability of increasing chemical similarity between the extracts of a given collection. Chemical "similarity" or "redundancy" is the focus of Simpson et al. (1996). Related to chemical similarity is the issue of "medici- nal" or "therapeutic" redundancy, discussed by Simpson et al. (1 996) and Artuso (1 997). This type of redun- dancy refers to the situation wherein different chemical compounds from different species produce similar therapeutic effects. Annex A-Review of the Empirical Biodiversity Literature 229 Based on the preceding model and data assumptions, of a new drug by the number of species (or biotic sam- Pearce and Puroshothaman (1992ab) find values oftropi- ples) that need to be screened before the new drug source cal rainforest ranging between US$0.01/ha and US$21/ha. or sources are found. Simpson et al. (1996) estimate the As shown in the last column of Table A. Ib, Aylward marginal value of genetic material by calculating change (1993) extended the valuation estimates of the above stud- in the value of a collection of species when one more ies by using the success probabilities stated in the original species is added to the collection. articles to arrive at implied values for an untested species. The models described below vary in terms of their For example, Farnsworth and Soejarto (1985) found the data requirements. For comparison, the fixed parameters value of a single successful plant species to be US$203 and data sources are summarized in a table for each model. million. At the time the article was written, the authors The tables reveal that the models use one or more com- believed the probability of a plant becoming an drug mon sources of empirical data-specifically, the studies source was one in 125 plants tested. Aylward used this by Grabowski and Vernon (1990), and DiMasi et al. probability to calculate the study's implied valuation of (1991). These frequently cited studies represent the most an untested species to be US$1.6 million (US$203 mil- recent from a body of economic literature which focuses lion/125 plants). on empirical estimation of the R&D cost to the pharma- These early models had a number of common limita- ceutical industry of an approved "new chemical entity" tions. Their main limitation is that they do not account for (NCE). Grabowski and Vernon (1990) estimate the rates the costs of new drug development. Such costs include: of return to R&D for 100 new drugs (or NCEs) intro- i) obtaining biotic samples; ii) R&D of screening sam- duced into the United States during the 1970s. The net ples; and, iii) production and marketing of a new drug. present value of each NCE is calculated using sales data, The exclusion of cost and investment information under- estimates of promotion and production costs, R&D cost mines some of the specific policy usefulness of the study estimates based on Hansen (1979, 1980)7, and opportu- results, but the results did serve, and continue to serve, nity cost of capital estimates based on a capital asset pric- an important educational purpose in raising awareness ing model. The major finding of the study is that the rate about the value of critical ecosystems to human well- of return on the average new drug is approximately 9%. being. Another limitation of these models is that they do R&D estimation work by DiMasi et al. (1991) is based not consider how the use of alternatives to natural prod- on a survey of 12 United States pharmaceutical firms. uct research might affect the valuations. Also, the studies The firms provided R&D cost and timing data for 93 are concerned with estimating the value of known phar- NCEs that entered the "clinical" R&D phase during the maceutically beneficial plants. There is an implicit as- 1970-82 period. The R&D process is divided into one sumption that species are not substitutes-benefits from preclinical phase, three clinical phases, and two animal different species are assumed additive whether or not they testing phases. The clinical and animal R&D costs asso- are providing the same type of benefit. Subsequent stud- ciated with each NCE were obtained from the survey. ies and models attempted to address these limitations. However, the preclinical costs-those associated with col- lection, screening, isolation, synthesis, and modification- could not be disaggregated by NCE. To arrive at a pre- Recent Models of Net Economic Benefits clinical cost of a NCE, the authors used aggregate cost data to derive a ratio of preclinical to total cost. This ratio Since 1993, most approaches to estimating the pharma- was then applied to the individual NCE estimates of clini- ceutical value of species preservation try to calculate the cal costs to derive estimates of the respective preclinical net value of biological material in the R&D process. In costs. In the study's base case, the R&D cost per approved contrast to earlier efforts, these models account for the NCE was found to be US$114 million (1987 dollars). This costs associated with new drug development, from sam- estimate was capitalized at 9% (Grabowski and Vernon ple acquisition to administration and marketing. Recent 1990) to the point of new drug approval, thereby increas- models also incorporate the effects of generic drug com- ing the average R&D cost to US$231 million per new drug. petition on the expected sales revenue profile of a new drug. Net revenues are discounted to the start of the R&D Aylward (1993) process to determine the net present value (NPV) of bio- logical material to the pharmaceutical prospecting firm. Aylward (1993) estimates the net returns to "pharmaceu- Essentially, the models by Aylward (1993), Mendel- tical prospecting". Up to a point, the approach is essen- sohn and Balick (1995), and Artuso (1997) estimate the tially the same as that used in the Grabowski and Vernon average value of the genetic material by dividing the NPV (1990) study that analyzed empirical data to find the rate 230 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling of return to pharmaceutical R&D. In the Aylward study, The gross return to pharmaceutical prospecting (GR5I) the net present value of a hypothetical new drug is calcu- is calculated by removing production and marketing costs lated using a potential sales profile, estimates of promo- from the projected revenue stream of the new drug. The tion and production costs, and R&D cost estimates based net return to pharmaceutical prospecting (NR55) is calcu- on DiMasi et al. (1991). At this stage, the approaches lated by removing the cost ofpharmaceutical prospecting start to diverge. From the revenue stream, Aylward also (C"): deducts the cost of biotic samples to arrive at the net re- NR PP = GR PP -C pp turns to pharmaceutical prospecting.A tums to pharmaceutcal prospecting.'In the "private cost" version of the model, the private Aylward's main contribution to the analysis of returns n cost of pharmaceutical prospecting (PCPP) equals the sum to pharmaceutical prospecting-is of the private cost of R&D (PCR"D) and the private cost of net returns across the factor inputs in the pharmaceutical biotic samples (PCBs). The net private return to pharma- prospecting process. These include: i) biodiversity pro- ceutical prospecting (NPRP" is: tection; ii) biotic sample acquisition, including taxonomic pp PPPc 1S identification; and, iii) research and development, includ- NPR = GR [PC&D + PCBS] ing the activities from chemical extraction to application In the "social cost" version of the model, the cost of for regulatory approval. pharmaceutical prospecting (C"P) additionally includes the Two slightly different models are developed to esti- social cost of taxonomic information and the social cost mate expected net private returns, and the expected net of biodiversity protection.9 Hence, the social cost of social returns to the factor inputs. To calculate net pri- pharmaceutical prospecting (SCPP) equals the sum of the vate returns, the analysis excludes factor costs typically social cost of biodiversity protection (SCO"), the social subsidized by the state (e.g., biodiversity protection and cost of R&D (SCR&D), and the social cost of biotic sam- taxonomic identification). To calculate net social returns, ples (SCBs, including the social cost of taxonomic infor- all factor costs are included. mation, SCT). The net social return to pharmaceutical Calculation of the value of the individual species sub- prospecting (NSRPP) is: jected to screening by a pharmaceutical firm proceeds NSR P = GR _[SCBP + (SCES + SCT!) + SCR&Di essentially the same as in the above models; net returns To apportion the net return across the different fac- are divided by the number of species required to find one tors of prospecting, in each model, the expected net re- successful new drug source (i.e., the success rate). The turn to each factor is assumed to be equal to its propor- Aylward model is slightly different because pharmaceu- tional share in the total cost of the prospecting process. tical prospecting is separated into different activities. Therefore, in the private cost model, the net private re- Specifically, net returns to an untested species are calcu- turn to R&D (NPRS&D) and to biotic samples (NPR55) are lated by applying the success rate to the "net returns to apportioned as follows: biotic sample acquisition". Applying the success rate to NPR R&D =(CR&DIlPCPP) x NPR the "net returns to biodiversity protection" yields the net (PC DpC X returns attributable to the biodiversity protection of a given NPR Bs = (PCBs / PC P) x NPR 'p species. In the social cost model, the net social returns to R&D Modeling Returns to Factors of (NSRR&D), to biotic samples (NSRDs), and to biodiversity Pharmaceutical Prospecting protection (NSROP) are calculated similarly. Aylward (1993) presents a situation wherein genetic Expected Net Returns Per Species or prospectors have access to a fully protected wildland Per Biotic Sample area containing at least 10,000 different species of plants. In the social cost model, the expected net return at- Over the course of one year, 10,000 species are screened tributable to a species in the protected area is equal to the against one therapeutic target for pharmaceutical poten- success rate multiplied by the net social return to bio- tial. Assuming a species success rate of 1:10,000, one diversity protection. Aylward (1993) assumes that there new drug source is eventually identified. are 10,000 species in the protected area; all will be screened The gross return of the resultant new drug is calcu- and one will provide a new drug source. Hence, the suc- lated as a revenue stream incorporating four phases of the cess rate is 1 :10,000. In the private cost model, the ex- product life: i) pre-patent; ii) on-patent before regulatory pected net return attributable to a biotic sample subjected approval; iii) on-patent after approval; and, iv) post-pat- to the screening program is equal to the species success ent when sales decay due to generic drug competition. rate (1:10,000) multiplied by the net private return to Annex A-Review of the Empirical Biodiversity Literature 231 biotic samples (NPRBS), adjusted for the number of sam- In the royalty model, gross revenue consists of only ples per species that are screened. Aylward assumes that sales up to patent expiration. Distribution costs, expressed two samples from each species enter the program. The as a percentage, are removed from gross sales to arrive at success rate for biotic samples (as opposed to species) is net sales (NS), on which royalties are calculated. Royal- therefore 1:20,000. The model parameters are shown in ties received by the producer of biotic samples then de- Table A.3 and results of the models are in Table A.4. pend on the expected rate of royalty (r). Adjusting for the species success rate (P) and the number of samples provided per species (n), the expected gross royalty on In addition to the cost-based models described above, biotic samples (RY9) is: Aylward (1993) also estimates aroyalty-basedmodel. For comparison with the cost-based models, both the net pri- RYBs = P X r x NS/n vate and net social expected royalty on biotic samples The private net royalty on biotic samples (NPRBs) is are calculated. calculated by adding to RYS the initial fees received by Table A.3. Model parameters in Aylward (1993). Modelparameter Value Source Sales: patent period mean US$69 million Based on Grabowski and Vernon (1990) sales data adjusted sales for an average drug (model calculation) to 1990 dollars using nominal growth rate for drug prices Real price trends of 5% Deflated nominal US pharmaceutical price trends for pharmaceuticals the period 1980 to 1991 Decay rate of post-patent sales 11%/./yr Grabowski and Vernon (1990) Patent life 18 Based on Ballance et al. (1992) findings for 15 to 20 years in OECD countries Rate of return for on-patent drugs 40% to 50% Ballance et al. (1992) Time to patenting 2 yrs Assumption Production and marketing costs 60% of sales The Economist (1992); Merck & Co. (1992) Pre-tax ROR and P&M 5% to 10% Ballance et al. (1992) Private costs of R&D US$91 million DiMasi et al. (1991) (model calculation) Length of R&D period 12 yrs DiMasi et al. (1991); US Pharmaceutical Manufacturers Association (1991) Cost of capital in 10% Based on Grabowski and Vernon (1990) estimate pharmaceutical industry of 9%, and others Per biotic sample collection US$50 Based on interviews with collectors working in fee in developing countries developing countries Biotic samples per species 2 samples per species Assumption Species hit rate 1:10,000 Based on various studies ranging from 1:125 to 1:40,000 Social costs of taxonomic US$100 Based on case study of Costa Rica's National information Biodiversity Institute (Aylward et al. 1993) Cost of biodiversity protection US$50 per species Derived from estimates of direct and opportunity per year costs of production in Costa Rica Royalty rate on biotic samples 2% Industry sources suggest I % to 3% range 232 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling Table A.4. Results of the models of Aylward (1993). Model component Net return (US$) Private Cost Model Total to pharmaceutical prospecting (NPRII) 39.13 million Total to R&D (NPRID) 38.71 million Total to biotic samples (NPRBS) 0.42 million Per biotic sample 21.23 Social Cost Model Total to pharmaceutical prospecting (NSR"P) 33.24 million Total to R&D (NSRR&D) 30.91 million Total to biotic samples (NSRBS) 0.68 million Per biotic sample 33.91 Total to biodiversity protection (NSRBP) 1.66 million Per tested species 165.79 the collector (F) and netting out the private cost of biotic The model calculates the net revenue stream associ- sample acquisition. The social net royalty (NSRlI) is cal- ated with the development, production and marketing of culated by also netting-out the social costs of taxonomic a new drug. The revenue profile reflects the pre-patent, information and biodiversity protection. The results from on-patent and post-patent periods. It covers a 29 year this model are a royalty per biotic sample (RYBs) of period-the first 1O years are devoted to R&D, with sales US$233.12, a total net return to biotic samples (NPRBs) of the new drug begin in year 11, reaching a peak in year of US$4.91 million, and a total net return to biotic sam- 19. For the industry as a whole, sales level off after the ples (NSRBS) of -US$0.98 million. peak year; for the firm holding the patent, revenue is quickly eroded in the post-period due to generic drug com- Mendelsohn and Balick (1995, 1997) petition. The authors argue that if sales of the new drug Mendelsohn and Balick (1995) estimate the net present are aggregated across all firms, the peak net revenue level value of a new drug. They also estimate the number of would likely be maintained indefinitely. Using the data new drug sources remaining to be discovered in tropical summarized in Table A.5, the authors arrive at a NPV of forests around the world. Given these two estimates-the US$449 million per new drug. NPV of a typical new drug and the number of new drugs To arrive at the number of drugs remaining to be dis- yet to be discovered and developed-they arrive at a total covered in the rainforests of the world, the authors rely worth of yet to be discovered drugs from tropical forests. on the following assumptions: Table A.5. Model parameters in Mendelsohn and Balick (1995). Model parameter Value Source Patent period average sales for an average drug US$29 million OTA (1993) Decay rate of post-patent sales 20%+ OTA (1993) Patent life 20 yrs not indicated Production and marketing costs 60.6% of sales OTA (1993) Length of R&D period 10 yrs Grabowski and Vernon (1990) Present value of private R&D costs US$125 million OTA (1993) Cost of capital in pharmaceutical industry 5% OTA (1993) Species hit rate 1:333 see text Per biotic sample collection fee US$100 in developing countries Annex A-Review of the Empirical Biodiversity Literature 233 * One-half of the 250,000 known species of higher plants that a single prospecting firm would pay for genetic ma- are found in rainforest ecosystems; terial at a single point in time; the firm is assumed to be a * Each plant has six chemically distinct extracts that can small player in a large industry. Phase-specific expected be tested; revenue is also estimated to arrive at the expected net * At any one time, the pharmaceutical industry as a whole present value of a prospecting program, which equals the tests sample extracts against 500 statistically independ- total value of a collection of genetic extracts subjected to ent screens (an individual company screens for about that program. In the base case, there are 15,000 extracts 50 to 75 different therapeutic uses); and, in the program; therefore, average value of an extract is * Probability of success is one per one million tests, which simply the NPV of the program divided by 15,000. implies that, on average, one new drug would be devel- The model estimates the pharmaceutical value of ge- oped from every 333 plant species."0 netic inputs by incorporating a specific "rate of success" From the above, there are approximately 375 plant- into each phase of the process. The expected cost of each based drugs inthe tropical forests.11 About 47 plant-based phase is dependent upon the number of genetic samples drugs have already been discovered, leaving 328 yet to under investigation in that phase. The number of sam- be discovered. ples under investigation in any particular phase will equal Given the NPV estimate of US$449 million per new the number of samples that tested positively in the pre- drug and the estimate of 328 new drugs yet to be discov- ceding phase. Therefore, the success rate of the preced- ered in the rainforest, the authors conclude that there is ing phase is the relevant rate for calculating costs in the approximately US$147 billion (NPV) worth of new drugs current phase. in the rainforests around the world. Allocating this amount Model to Value a Set of Biological Extracts over the area of rainforest in the world provides a genetic resource value of US$48/ha. Allocating US$147 billion We firstesummarize the calculationofexpectedR&Dcosts. over the 125,000 rainforest plant species implies that any The expected revenue and net present value calculations * ^ ^ . ~~~~~~~~~~follow thereafter. One species IS worth $1.2 million. The expected total cost of pharmaceutical R&D is the Artuso (1997) summation of the expected costs associated with each All of the above models to determine the average phar- phase of the process. The expected cost of each phase i maceutical value of an untested species use R&D cost (EC,) equals the sum of its fixed costs (FC,) and its vari- estimates based on empirical research by others. The able costs. Variable costs depend on the cost per test of emphasis is on determining the expected net revenue an extract (c), the number of extracts tested, and the associated with a new drug, rather than on the details of number of therapeutic targets (M) against which the ex- the R&D process itself. The empirical modeling efforts tracts are screened. The number of extracts tested in any by DiMasi et al. (1991) or Grabowski and Vemon (1990), phase depends upon the number of extracts originally on the other hand, examine the R&D process in greater entered into the screening process (N) and the success detail. rates of all preceding phases (s.). Hence, the expected As discussed above, the empirical work on pharma- cost of phase i is: ceutical R&D uses survey data at the individual firm level i-l to develop costs for distinct phases of the R&D process. EC, = FC, + NMci fls However, these studies do not provide valuations for j=0 genetic material inputs to the R&D process. Preclinical To arrive at the present value expected cost of phase i costs, which would include the input cost of genetic ma- (PVECI), for the duration of the phase (d,), the average terial, are estimated using aggregate data because firms annual cost of the phase (EC,/d,) is discounted by the are unable to allocate preclinical costs to specific new specified rate (r) to the present. The period over which chemical entities (NCEs). discounting occurs must account for D.-the total dura- To value genetic material, Artuso (1997) borrows from tion in years of all phases up to and including phase i. the empirical models in that the approach breaks R&D EC d,-l into phases and estimates phase-specific (expected) costs. PVECi = E (I + In the Artuso model, R&D is divided into nine phases di *=o from the "initial screening" of samples to "new drug ap- The present value of the expected total cost (PVETC) proval". The model differs from the empirical ones be- of the R&D process is the summation of the present value cause its ultimate goal is to arrive at a (maximum) value ofthe expected cost of each phase ofthe process (PVEC). 234 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling If there are n phases in the pharmaceutical R&D process, The number of new drugs receiving regulatory ap- then: proval (A) multiplied by the discounted value of expected n new drug revenue (R) yields the before-tax present value PVETC = PVEC, of expected gross revenue. Netting-out all non-R&D costs (production, equipment, marketing, and administration) Table A.6 shows the phase data used to calculate yields the present value of expected net revenue (PVENR,). PVETC. The discounting period includes all n phases of the R&D For the calculation of revenue, the expected number process, plus T-the average commercial life (in years) of approved drugs (A) following from an R&D process is of a new drug. Therefore: a function of the number of extracts screened (N), the Dn+T number of screening targets (M), and the probability of PVENR = qA , (R -Zt )(1 + r) any given compound advancing through all phases of the t=l R&D process. The multiplicative product of the success where q = average proportion of annual revenues after rates of all the phases is: deducting all production and marketing costs; n and, A = NM 1 Si Z1 = cost in year t of any initial capital and i=1 marketing costs not captured by q. Table A.6. R&D phase data used by Artuso (1997) for baseline analysis. 15,000 extracts were tested for 10 therapeutic targets. Assumed real discount rate was 8.5%. Present value Phase Mean Expected of expected duration Success number of Costs per trial phase costs phase costs Phase (yrs) rate (%/) successes (thousand US$) (thousand US$) (thousand US$) Initial screeninga 0.75 0.5 750 0.10 15,000 14,548 Secondary screeninga 0.10 40.0 300 1 750 732 Isolation and dereplicationa 0.50 10.0 30 20 6,000 5,712 Synthesis and modificationa 1.50 50.0 15 250 7,500 6,585 Preclinical trials' 1.00 40.0 6 771 11,570 9,170 Clinical phase Ib 1.35 75.0 4.5 3,137 18,822 13,557 Clinical phase II' 1.88 47.5 2.14 9,933 44,698 28,239 Clinical phase Ilb 2.49 70.0 1.50 18,817 40,222 21,282 NDA 3.00 90.0 1.35 1,000 1,496 633 Cumulative 12.57 0.0009 1.35 33,930 146,058 100,457 aData based on various natural product screening programs. bData based on Burger (1990), DiMasi et al. (1991), and Hansen (1979). Table A.7 shows the data and sources used in the societal benefits such as reduced contagion and increased PVENR calculation. productivity. A scalar (m) is used to increase PVENR to Accounting for the tax liability of a private firm (r in capture consumer surplus and any additional benefits: percent), the difference between the present values of ENPVSOC = m(PVENR) - PVETC expected net revenue and expected total cost of R&D The results of the expected private NPV calculations yields the expected net present value of N biological ex- h i T ble A 8. tracts to the private firm (ENPPr v)- That iS to say: ar shw inTbe. .8 tracts toth pivtefim ENV ha itsy:Sensitivity analyses were conducted by changing the ENPVp,iv = (1- r)(PVENR - PVETC) assumptions regarding the discount rate, drug revenues, The expected net present value ofNbiological extracts and the success rates of different phases of the R&D proc- to society (ENPVj0 ) is estimated by ignoring the tax li- ess. For example, decreasing the discount rate from 8.5% ability and accounting for consumer surplus and additional to 8%, the expected NPV of N extracts increased from Annex A-Review of the Empirical Biodiversity Literature 235 Table A.7. Model parameters in Artuso (1997). Model parameter Value Source Sales revenues for new drug Series Grabowski and Vernon (1990), adjusted to 1994 prices Sales decay 7.5%/yr in years 12 to 20 Product life 20yrs Vagelos (1991) Global to US sales ratio 1.9 Grabowski and Vernon (1990); Joglekar and Patterson (1986) Plant and equipment 50% of gross revenues in year 10; Grabowski and Vernon (1990) 67% occur in year 1; balance equally spread over years 2 to 10 Administration and operating costs 40% of revenue Marketing 100% in year 1; 50% in year 2; 25% in year 3 Tax rate 35% Discount rate 8.5% Based on capital asset pricing model US$7.3 million to US$18 million. Reducing the primary Table A.8. Results of the expected private NPV screening rate by 20% from 0.005 to 0.004 reduced the calculations of Artuso (1997). expected NPV of N extracts from US$7.3 million to US$2.9 million. If the preclinical success rate is reduced Before tax (US$) After tax (US$) by 20% from 0.400 to 0.320, the expected NPV of the Total (15,000 Extracts) prospecting program becomes negative.Toa(1,0Exrcs Expected net revenue 108.8 million 70 million Expected R&D costs 100.5 million 65 million A Model Addressing Expected net value 7.3 million 5 million Marginal Economic Value Per Extract Simpson et aL (1996) Expected net revenue 7,184 4,669 Expected R&D costs 6,697 4,353 Simpson and colleagues (including Simpson and Craft Expected net value 487 316 1996; Simpson and Sedjo 1996ab) note that most of the existing valuations of biodiversity for genetic prospect- ing have estimated the average value of a species. Those generally take on a different analytical form. The Simpson reviewed above, for example, calculate the value of a new, et al. (1996) model estimates the value of a species by plant-based commercial drug, net of all production, mar- deriving its incremental contribution to the total value of keting and R&D. That net value represents the maximum the collection of species. For example, if a prospecting amount a prospecting firm would pay for a collection of firm has a collection of 249,999 species of plants, the species to screen for new drug sources. The value of an model calculates the additional value of screening a individual species within the collection is estimated by 250,000th species. multiplying the value of the collection (i.e., the net value The rationale for a marginal valuation approach is of a new drug) by a probability that an untested species based on the existence of "redundancy" among natural will yield a commercially viable new drug source (i.e., chemicals. Genetic resources may be relatively redun- the success rate). The result is an average value for the dant for the following reasons: individual species subjected to the screening program. If all individuals of a species produce the same com- From a policy planning perspective, however, some of pound, a viable population of the species is all that is the economic efficiency decisions made for a given site needed to guarantee supply. Individuals in excess of (e.g., a conservation area) would also require information the number required to maintain the population are relating to marginal values of species. Such valuations redundant. 236 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling •In many cases, the same chemical compounds can be The model is adjustedto allow for the expected number found in different species; hence, there will be redun- of new drug approvals per year (A). The marginal value dant species for those particular compounds. of a species is discounted at the rate r. Discounting takes •The discovery of a novel compound occurring in par- places over an infinite time horizon, hence the marginal ticular species may, in fact, only duplicate the thera- value equation is simply: peutic mechanisms already produced by an existing compound. v(n) = (A/r)(pR - c)(1 _ p)- The possibility of redundancy is built into the Simpson and the maximum expected present value of the marginal et al. (1996) model so that the expected value associated species (EPVv*) is: with screening an additional species declines, due to the increasing probability of having hit upon a novel com- EPVv* = (A/r) x [[(R-c)/(n + 1)] x [(- pound from samples already screened. R x (n/(n + 1))]]n The authors derive a demand function for genetic re- sources in pharmaceutical research. In doing so, they The model estimates a maximum potential value for demonstrate that if the collection of genetic resources to the marginal species; data inputs and key results of a valu- be screened is large, the expected value of the marginal ation exercise using the model are shown in Table A.9. species will be low because the probability of redundancy Given the cost and revenue data, for a collection of is positively related to the size of the collection. Further- 250,000 species, the probability that maximizes the value more, the higher the probability of success in finding a of the marginal species (p*) is 0.000012 (or 1:83,333). novel compound within the collection, the higher will be Success probabilities greater or lower thanp* reduce the the probability of redundancy. This results in an even value of the marginal species. Evaluated at the maximiz- lower expected value of the marginal species. ing probability p*, the maximum expected value of the Model to Value the Marginal Species marginal species is just under US$10,000. Tests are run on the model to demonstrate the ex- Each sampling is treated as an independent Bemoulli trial treme sensitivity of the expected value to the probability with equal probability of success. When a positive hit of success and to the relative magnitudes of the revenue occurs, the sampling process is halted because further and cost variables. With costs and revenues constant, if positive hits wouldbe redundant. The value(V) ofacol- the probability of success drops below 0.000008 lection of n samples to be screened is then: (1:125,000), the value of the marginal species is nega- V(n) = (pR - c)/p x [1 - (1 - p)nl] tive. The lower success rate results in a loss in marginal where p = probability with which any species sampled value because the incremental revenue from testing the at random yields a success; last available species has decreased. On the other hand, R = revenue generated by the new drug, net of if the success rate increases to 0.00004 (1:25,000) the production and marketing costs; value of the marginal species declines to US$67. The c = R&D costs only; and, loss in marginal value is because of the increased like- n = size of the collection. lihood that the novel compound has already been found The value of the marginal species denoted as v(n) is in another species. the difference between V evaluated at n and V evaluated Using the output of the model, the authors calculate at n+l: the prices pharmaceutical companies would be willing to V (n + 1) - V(n) = v(n) = (pR - c)(1 - p)fl pay to preserve biodiversity-rich sites. Given the esti- The equatin fr 1-V(n) is differentia)ed with (p pR-cl _mate of the marginal value of a higher plant species of The equation for v(n) is differentiated with respect to approximately US$10,000, the authors estimate the value p to find ph , the probability which maximizes the value of the marginal hectare of endangered habitat. Using the of the marginal species. v(n) is then evaluated at p* to theory of island biogeography, for 18 biodiversity "hot determine ve, the maximum value of the marginal spe- spots", a species-area curve is differentiated to determine cies, given the size of the collection, sales revenue and thcaneitenubrospisfomagvnhne R& css.Hnc:the change in the number of species from a given change in the size of a particular forest area. Combining the re- p* = (R + nc)/ (n + 1) x R sults of these calculations with the marginal species value v v * =R- nRl estimate, the authors derive land values ranging from v* = v(n, p*) = [(R - c)/n + 1)] x [(R -c US$0.74/ha in central Chile to US$20.63/ha in westem R x (n/(n + 1))]n Ecuador. Annex A-Review of the Empirical Biodiversity Literature 237 Table A.9. Model parameters and results in Simpson et al. (1996). Model parameter Value Source Number of species 250,000 Myers (1988); Wilson (1992) Expected number of new products development 10 US FDA average Cost of single new product US$300 million DiMasi et al. (1991); OTA (1993) Revenue to cost ratio 1.50 assumption Discount rate 10% assumption Revenue US$450 million Cost per sample (c) US$3,600 Maximizing probability (p*) 0.000012 Probability of a hit in entire collection 0.9502 Value of the marginal species US$9,431.16 A Look at the Frontiers of of option values. It does, however, provide insights into Valuation and Modeling issues of value related to marine environments, focusing on issues such as marine product success rates, institu- This annex has looked at the biodiversity valuation liter- tional revenue sharing issues, and ecosystem yield. We ature, with a view to considering the different methods encourage further research that looks into such issues in that may be applicable to marine biodiversity valuation. greater depth and extends models to bioprospecting for Methods relating to direct and indirect uses and functions other marine products, such as mariculture. In that re- are among the best developed and techniques are readily spect, future modeling efforts are likely to borrow more transferred to coral reef systems. Methods relating to extensively from both the agricultural and the pharma- non-use values are also available, although they are com- ceutical literature. plicated by methodological issues such as lexicographic We maintain, however, that no single terrestrial bio- preferences (Chapter 6). prospecting valuation model should be preferred over the Of greatest research interest, however, is the field of others; each has different policy applications. In phar- biological prospecting valuation (Chapter 7). Models for maceutical bioprospecting, the early models of gross eco- terrestrial systems have evolved considerably over the past nomic value had an important role to play for education decade, although none have yet been applied to marine and awareness policies, although they may be less useful systems. Also, bioprospecting model development in the for management and specific planning. The next genera- literature has tended to be isolated in two distinct areas- tion of models, those relating to net economic values, agriculture and pharmaceuticals. While both have simi- taught us that we need to pay greater attention to the lar foundations in the modeling of the value of applied allocation and calculation of costs within the biological research (Evenson and Kislev 1976), distinct literatures prospecting process. This has distributive implications, have developed in agricultural and pharmaceutical such as through the incidence of benefits and costs to the modeling development. This has arisen because of dif- private sector versus society at large, as well as efficiency ferent technical aspects of bioprospecting in these fields, considerations, such as whether it in fact makes economic as well as different policy concerns. sense to undertake biological prospecting. In particular, The bioprospecting valuation approaches we build on the average cost models showed us how sensitive eco- fall primarily into the realm of deterministic models re- nomic values can be to technical parameters, such as suc- lating to pharmaceutical development. These attempt to cess rates, and to economic variables, such as royalty infer social values from intensely private behavior. The rates or R&D costs. model developed in the Montego Bay pharmaceutical bio- But even these models fail to tell the whole picture prospecting valuation research presented in Chapter 7, like or answer all of the relevant economic policy questions. its counterparts, provides no explicit empirical calculation From a system planning perspective, we are constantly 238 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling reminded that we must pay attention to the complexity It is no accident that wider reliance is also being made on inherent in biological and ecological systems, as well as multi-criteria analyses (MCA), with valuation as one com- within the discovery process itself (Brown and Goldstein ponent of that analysis. Adger et al. (1999) demonstrate 1984; Polasky and Solow 1995; Solow et al. 1993). One how such MCA techniques can be of particular use in manifestation of this is the potential for interdependence marine park planning applications where there are often a of probabilities within the discovery process; an example large number of stakeholders, having a wide variety of of this was illustrated by Simpson et al. (1996) in their interests and objectives. treatment of "redundancy" to show that the value of the marginal species is in fact quite low when such complexi- ties are considered. Another manifestation of this com- plexity arises at the policy planning stage when trying to transfer "S per species" values to some tract of ecosystem such as rainforest. In such cases, the yield of species by the ecosystem is typically non-linear, and the first dif- ferential of this relationship must be estimated before allocative decisions about optimal levels of conservation can be made. Again, this issue was touched upon by Simpson et al. (1996), as well as by Artuso (1997), and their results illustrate the sensitivity of valuation results to assumptions relating to ecosystem yields. As another example of the complexity and inter- dependence issue, none of the models have adequately grappled with differentiating among the intended reasons for bioprospecting. It is normally assumed that we are looking for new products and new discoveries that will somehow cure all of our worst maladies. In fact, some of the bioprospecting is oriented to looking for new, but cheaper, sources of existing materials. In that re- spect, bioprospecting is akin to mineral or oil exploration -we know what we are looking for and are simply look- ing for a cheaper source. This result is underlined by theoretical modeling work done by Evenson and Lemarie (1998). They show that, within an optimal search frame- work that distinguishes between different geographical regions, bioprospecting may shift towards species-rich (or trait-rich) regions where lower cost searches are avail- able. In this case, redundancy is not an issue; indeed, redundancy may be a positive rather than a negative fac- tor in valuation. To date, no single model has provided all of the an- swers. At best, they provide some indication of value and what that value is sensitive to within a given policy context. There remain substantial limitations to valuation techniques. When designing a new model, or choosing among the existing ones, one must therefore pay atten- tion to the particular policy issues or analytical issues one wishes to address. For marine products, these issues can be quite different than those related to terrestrial products. While any single valuation will generally be a useful policy input, it should normally be regarded as just one among many potential inputs to such a policy making exercise. Annex A-Review of the Empirical Biodiversity Literature 239 Endnotes The Canadian effort, maintained by Environment Canada, is available by subscription and is entitled "EVRI: Environmental Valuation Reference Inventory". At the end of 1998, it contained approximately 850 references, primarily relating to the valuation of water-related issues. It is located at: http://www.evri.ec.gc.ca/EVRI/. The Australian effort, spearheaded by the New South Wales Government, is free of charge to use and is entitled ENVALUE. It relies on an extensive database developed by experts in the field of valuation, and addresses a wide range of pollution and environmental management issues. It is located at: http://www.epa.nsw.gov.au/envalue/StudyCnt.asp. 2 One such site is maintained at Oregon State University by Professor Stephen Polasky, who has done personal research work in genetic valuation and coauthored a bibliography on biodiversity conservation (Polasky et al. 1997). The internet site is located at: http://www.orst.edu/dept/ag-resrc-econIbiodiv/biblio.html. 3 The implicit price model is obtained by first estimating a market value model. The total cost of vacation packages is regressed on the attributes of those packages (i.e., type of accommodations, destinations, and duration). The estimated market value model is then differentiated with respect to days in the Galapagos to arrive at another relationship wherein price is a function of the days in the Galapagos and of total vacation expenditure. Survey data on days in the Galapagos and vacation cost was entered into the implicit price equation to obtain implicit price data, which would then be used in the estimation of a demand curve for a Galapagos vacation experience. From the demand curve so estimated, at the average per day implicit price (US$312), vacation days demanded would be 7.3, implying a total vacation cost of US$2,278. 4 Genetically modified (GM) products have been in the public eye more recently and have raised a number of policy issues which are likely to become interesting topics for valuation. Direct economic improvements from GM crops are becoming better documented. For example, it is estimated by the John Innes Center in the United Kingdom (M. Gale, Director, press release, 8 March 1999) that Roundup Ready soya, which was genetically engineered to resist Roundup herbicide, saved farmers some US$30/ha because of a 40% reduction in herbicide. But while the higher net incomes and the lower, as yet unmeasured, externalities of reduced pesticide use may be regarded as "benefits" from such modifications within any policy context, uncer- tainties associated with health concerns over GM crops, as asserted by anti-GM campaigners, would presumably constitute some disbenefit in any calculus of economic valuation. To date, however, such valuations have not been conducted. 5 An extensive series of CIMMYT discussion papers and related publications is documented on the CIMMYT web site located at: http://www.cimmyt.cgiar.org/. Many of these relate to farm level studies and the role of institutional changes and policy inter- ventions in improving incentives for farm level conservation of genetic resources. Saade (1996) describes impacts on farmers' incomes of high yield wheat varieties in Tunisia; a major conclusion was that large farmers and state farms were the primary beneficiaries of such introductions. Hartell et al. (1997) use econometric studies to investigate the relative contributions of various inputs to improved farm income in Pakistan; they conclude that in some areas the genetic improvement has made farmers better off, while in other areas (i.e., those with production constraints) the contributions of the genetic improvement are minimal and farm policy would be better targeted to production management. 6 Farnsworth and Soejarto (1985) list 40 flowering plants responsible for all plant-derived drugs sold in 1980. 7 The R&D cost studies by Hansen (1979, 1980) and DiMasi et al. (1991) are similar in their approaches in that both studies use NCE-specific survey data for a multi-phase R&D process. Grabowski and Vernon (1990) may have implicitly deducted the cost of biotic samples because they used R&D cost estimates from Hansen (1979, 1980) that, according to DiMasi et al. (1991), included "discovery costs". 9 The social cost of taxonomic information reflects the costs to collect, curate and identify a specimen not already held in a local reference collection. The social cost of biodiversity protection is area specific and should include the direct, indirect, and opportunity costs of preservation. Aylward (1993) estimates the direct and opportunity costs of preserving 600,000ha of Costa Rican parkland. Direct cost is based on park budget projections; opportunity cost is based on local land prices and an estimate of the net present value of neighboring agricultural land. Assuming a certain number of species residing in the parkland, a per species protection cost is then calculated. 0 Given that each plant has six distinct extracts, 333 plants would provide about 2,000 extracts. If each of these is subjected to 500 screens, then these 333 plants would provide 1 million tests, which would yield one success. Assuming there are 125,000 plant species in the rainforest all yielding six extracts, there are then approximately 750,000 potential extracts which can each be subjected to 500 screens. At a success rate of one in one million, there would then be 375 potential drugs. Annex B Contingent Valuation as a Means of Valuing the Conservation of Coral Reefs: An Assessment of the Method Nick Hanley Institute of Ecology and Resource Management, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, Scotland, United Kingdom The contingent valuation method (CVM) is a means of mental Response, Compensation and Liability Act assigning monetary values to resources and service flows (CERCLA). However, perhaps the most relevant event in that are unpriced or under-priced by the market. CVM is the development ofCVM was the case pursued by the State based on neo-classical welfare economics, where the value of Alaska and the federal government in the United States of an environmental resource to an individual is expressed against Exxon as a result of the Exxon Valdez oil spill either as their maximum willingness-to-pay (WTP) to (Bateman and Willis 1999). This led to the establishment acquire or safeguard it, or else the minimum monetary of the so-called Blue Ribbon Panel, out of which emerged compensation they would accept to go without an increase National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in that good or tolerate a decrease (willingness-to-accept (NOAA) guidelines on the use of CVM, especially regard- compensation; WTAC). Given that it is "missing markets" ing non-use values (Federal Register 1993, 1994). These that result in such environmental resources as clean air, guidelines are still the subject of some debate, but form coral reefs or biodiversity being unpriced, CVM relies on the basis for the design elements presented in this annex. a constructed, hypothetical market to produce monetary Essentially, a CVM exercise consists of: i) describing estimates of value. The researcher obtains peoples' bids the environmental change in question; ii) describing the (either WTP or WTAC) for a specified change in the envi- contingent market; iii) establishing a bid vehicle and ronmental good of interest contingent on the description reason for payment; iv) seeking bids, either through an of this hypothetical market. Thus, an individual's WTP open-ended format, a bidding game, a payment card, or a or WTAC can be expected to depend on: single or double-bounded dichotomous choice mechanism; * The description of the contingent market; v) estimating mean or median WTP; iv) aggregating this * What they know about the environmental good, which average bid to a population total value; and, vii) carrying depends partly on what they are told about it as part of out reliability and validity tests of the CVM results. the CVM survey; * Their own preferences; * Their budget constraints; and, * The availability of substitutes and complements. The CVM method has been used to estimate the value of Empirically, it also turns out that stated WTP (through- a wide variety of environmental resources, including air out the rest of this annex, WTP will be used to refer to and water quality, outdoor recreation, and landscape and both itself and WTAC unless otherwise stated) also de- wildlife conservation. These applications have highlighted pends on the design of the constructed market and how some general problems in CVM-namely, the concept responses are subsequently analyzed. of utilitarian values for environmental resources (Spash Historically, CVM developed through gradual accept- and Hanley 1995; Stevens et al. 1991); benefits transfer ance and use by United States government agencies. An (Bergland et al. 1995); nesting and part-whole bias (Boyle important milestone was the acceptance by the United et al. 1994); calibration and aggregation (Foster et al. States courts of the use of CVM in natural resource dam- 1998); and the concept of non-use values (Bishop and age assessments under the 1980 Comprehensive Environ- Welsh 1992). In addition, the ability of researchers using 242 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling CVM to value the different characteristics that make up, to allocate an amount for that landscape from their al- say, a pleasant landscape, has been limited (e.g., Hanley ready declared ESA "budget", having been told that money and Ruffell 1993). This has turned attention to other stated "spent" on one ESA could not be spent on another (in preference approaches, notably choice experiments other words, that there was an opportunity cost). (Adamowicz et al. 1994). From the CVM literature and from economic theory, Early work (summarized in Mitchell and Carson 1989) we know that this procedure will elicit lower bids for an tended to concentrate on what might be termed "design individual ESA than when that ESA is bid for alone. This bias" effects; these included the impact on WTP of changes procedure might be seen as desirable in the sense that it in the starting point in bidding games and tests for stra- presents a direct opportunity cost for bidding for any in- tegic behavior. Later, much attention was, in contrast, dividual ESA (less can be "spent" on the other nine) and, given to large differences between WTP and WTAC meas- also, that it produces more conservative value estimates. ures of value, which were inconsistent with mainstream However, this procedure suffers from one major problem. welfare economics predictions. These differences have As has been noted above, respondents who are not famil- now been attributed to endowment effects (Knetsch 1989) iar with the good being valued must be given enough ac- and/or to substitution effects (Hanemann 1991). Another curate and unbiased information to permit them to make recent trend has been the large number of articles con- well informed choices. ESAs are, for most individuals, cemed with optimal design and subsequent econometric unfamiliar goods in terms of the benefits they generate. analysis of dichotomous choice models. Other papers Providing "full" information on each ESA in this instance (e.g., Munro and Hanley 1999) have shown that changes would be an impractical task. Thus, this method of deal- in the information set provided to respondents in a CVM ing with nesting effects is flawed. Additionally, one might survey can significantly affect their WTP, but that this is ask why respondents should not first be asked to allocate a desirable characteristic of the method. some total for all public enviromnental spending, then Perhaps the four main current worries within CVM allocate some of this to the ESA program, and then allo- are: i) part-whole bias; ii) lexicographic preferences; cate some of this to a specific ESA. But why stop there? iii) non-use values; and, iv) aggregation. These problems On the same logic, respondents should surely first be asked are now briefly described, before tentative best practice about how much they are willing to pay in taxes for total guidelines are outlined. government expenditure. Yet this seems beyond the origi- nal intention or capabilities of CVM, especially when one Nesting and Part-Whole Effects considers the information issue. It is well known that in CVM a good will be valued higher Lexicographic Preferences when valued in isolation than when as part of a more in- clusive bundle. This is to be expected if goods within the Both Stevens et al. (1991) and Spash and Hanley (1995) bundle are substitutes for each other, to a degree, in terms have found evidence that when people are asked to par- of the utility they generate (Carson et al. 1998). This ticipate in CVM surveys concerned with wildlife protec- phenomenon has variously become known in CVM as tion, a proportion of these respondents have preferences embedding, nesting and part-whole bias, and may well that are at odds with the utilitarian ethic and the demand exist for private market goods as well as for non-market model underlying cost-benefit analysis (CBA). In essence, goods. One possible "cure" for this problem is to ask such individuals (approximately 25% ofthe sample in each respondents to bid for the more inclusive good first, and case) refuse the concept of trading off income changes then to apportion some amount of this total bid to the good for changes in the level of environmental quality. Spash being valued. and Hanley (1995) argue that such preferences may be Willis et al. (1993), for example, used this approach characterized as "lexicographic", derived from an ethical in their study of English environmentally sensitive areas system based on rights. The implication is that WTAC (ESAs). Respondents were first asked to state a WTP amounts for such individuals will be infinite, and WTP amount, in terms of additional income tax, to maintain the amounts will be either zero (i.e., the individual protests) entire ESA program in England andWales. Residents and or a positive amount that does not vary with the level of visitors were then shown pictorial and textual representa- environmental change involved. Since the behavior of tions of what the landscape in either ESA would look like such individuals does not correspond to the model un- with and without the ESA scheme in place. Respondents derlying CBA, they are effectively disenfranchised by stated which landscape they preferred and were then asked the CBA process. Identifying such individuals is clearly Annex B-Contingent Valuation as a Means of Valuing the Conservation of Coral Reefs 243 important, although what to do about them is much less count as valid? Multiplying even very small per person clear. It also seems important to test, empirically, what values by national populations give rise to very large ag- determines such behavior and whether it is independent gregate non-use values. Second, are the large aggregate of the opportunity cost of, in this case, wildlife protection. values that arise credible? Bishop and Welsh (1992) refer The issue of lexicographic preferences in particular, and to an "adding up" problem for non-use values whereby, non-utilitarian ethics in general, within CBA is currently possibly due to their symbolic value, individuals would unresolved. give identical WTP values for any environmental good cause that they are made aware of, but their WTP for all Non-Use Values and Obscure Resources of these projects added together would not be equal to the Non-use (passive use) values have long been a subject of sum of these individual amounts. For this reason, and also because of a worry that the some controversy in contingent valuation. Non-use val- ues represent the utility derived fromivery hypothetical nature of the CVM situation causes an ues epreentthe tiliy drive fro inividals rom inflation of stated values, economists have suggested "cali- the existence of an environmental resource when they do bratin of stimates en agega ted io alle not consume it in situ (e.g., by bird-watching or hunting). amonts (ot etial. 1998 aAg1993). Fost al. Arguments for and against the acceptability of non-use aons(otre l 98 OA19) otre l varumesantse foruand, against thexaleptinRabialt of9no e (1998) report ratios of stated to actual WTP for wildlife values can be found, for example, in Randall (1993) and cnevto nteUie igo nterneo . Hausman (1993). An interesting finding in the CVM lit- to 10.5 (with a mean of 2.93), although they also note erature is that non-use values appear to exist for respond- th the meth adpedn the studh these ents who were not aware of the good before the survey number s ar del, mingtcomparisons dficult. took place. A example of his phenomenn is reporte numbers arise vary widely, making comparisons difficult. took place. An example of this phenomenon iS reported NAA(93sugtasoehtdhcclirin by Bishop and Welsh (I992) who note that the citizens of NOAA (1993) suggest a somewhat ad hoc calibration by~ ~~ . BihpadWlh(19)wont.ha h iieso figure of 50% in the absence of an experimental study Wisconsin are apparently willing to pay US$12 million undertaken alongside any given CVM study, yet this for preserving the striped shiner, a "...small minnow in- habiting thuridphsoteMiwukeneglects the probable range of calibration desirable in habiting the turbid depths of the Milwaukee River" of difrncotgetmktsaosthnn-e/ead whic fe resondnts ereawar pror t th surey. different contingent markets across the non-use/use and which few respondents were aware prior to the survey,. ulcpiaego otnus Bishop and Welsh (1992, p.138) contend that these val- public/private good contiuums. ues are as real as non-use values for well-known resources such as the Grand Canyon: "...lack of knowledge cannot Design Elements-A Best Practice Guide be taken as evidence that the existence of such resources lacks the ability to satisfy preferences... It could simply In discussing current views on what constitutes "best" indicate the lack of past choice opportunities to motivate information gathering. In the case of the striped shiner, it adesgn i CVM, it iS first necessary to describe the nature and evolution of United States government guidelines on is possible that people are concemed about the fate of the use of the technique, which seem likely to heavily endangered species, even obscure ones. influence the acceptability of CVM results in the United Thus, lack of ex ante knowledge is not a reason for a States. The wrecking of the oil tanker the Exxon Valdez non-credible WTP value, especially as we have already off the coast of Alaska in 1989 was the somewhat un- argued that the CVM process is an information providing foreseen cause of a major spur to the development of process that is expected to change preferences. Whether CVM in terms of a legally acceptable method of valuing values for those in the sample who were ignorant of the environmental damages in the United States. United resource prior to the survey can be used to say anything States law had gradually seen the introduction of damage about the values of those outside the sample who have claims for environmental losses, principally under the not so been informed is, however, a moot point. Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation Aggregation Problems and Liability Act (CERCLA) regulations of 1986 and the Oil Pollution Act of 1990. Following a famous judgment Some of the problems of aggregating benefit estimates in by the DC Court of Appeals (State of Ohio versus De- CVM studies are largely of a practical nature (e.g., esti- partment of the Interior), non-use (or more strictly, what mating total visitors to a wildemess area). Estimates can, has been termed "passive use" values, including the val- of course, be made. However, with regard to projects ues derived from watching wildlife on TV, for example) where the general public can be expected to benefit, two were deemed relevant under this body of legislation in awkward questions arise. First, which population do we that persons could sue responsible parties for lost passive 244 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling use values. This clearly had an enormous implication for constrained to stick to these guidelines in future research, Exxon since many of the enviromnental damages result- since the guidelines pose some awkward questions. These ing from the spill (i.e., damage to wildlife and a pristine, include: fragile ecosystem) were likely to be passive use values, . Are all "protest" bids giving the same signals and how as opposed to actual active use values, since actual active should these signals be interpreted and utilized in any use of the area was relatively modest. case? As a counter to the possibly large size of damage . Canthe 50% calibrationfactorbejustifiedempirically? claims being made against Exxon, the company funded * How can the weaknesses of the dichotomous choice a series of studies that basically tried to discredit CVM design format be overcome? as a method for valuing losses in passive use values (Cambridge Economics 1992). The government body re- sponsible for issuing regulations on the assessment of damages from oil spills, the National Oceanic and At- How Should a CVM be Designed? mospheric Administration (NOAA), convened a panel of distinguished economists thought to have no vested Credibility of Hypothetical Market interest in the CVM method to conduct hearings on the It is essential that the hypothetical market used be cred- validity of the method in 1992. Members of the panel ible and, if possible, rely on routine or previously ex- were Robert Solow, Kenneth Arrow, Edward Leamer, periencedbehavioronthepartofrespondents. Suchcred- Paul Portney, Roy Radnor and Howard Schuman. The ibility can be tested for in focus groups (see below). Cred- panel's report on their findings was published in January ibility as a concem extends to the bid vehicle used (thus 1993 (Federal Register 15.1.93) and was basically a cau- respondents must be able to envisage that it could be col- tious acceptance of CVM for valuing environ-mental dam- lected); the bid vehicle should also be, as far as possible, ages, including lost passive use values. These findings uncontroversial. have recently been developed as a set of proposed guide- lines for future legally admissible CVM studies, which seem bound to at least influence the future development Protest Bids of the method (Federal register 7.1.94). The principle Protest bids (i.e., zero bids for reasons other than a true recommendations were as follows: zero value being placed on the environmental change) I . A dichotomous choice format should be used; should be identified, and reasons for them sought. CVM 2. A minimum response rate from the target sample of surveys that suffer from very high levels ofprotesting (e.g., 70% should be achieved; more than 40% of all respondents) might be challenged 3. In-person interviews should be employed (not mail as either having used a non-credible hypothetical market, shots) with some role for telephone interviews in the having used a controversial bid vehicle, or having involved piloting stages; a radical change in implied property rights. 4. WTP, not WTAC, measures should be sought; 5. After excluding protest bids, a test should be made of Information whether WTP is sensitive to the level of environmen- Individuals need to be informed about all important as- tal damage; pects of the resource concemed and the nature of the 6. CVM results should be calibrated against experimen- change being considered. However, this information tal findings, otherwise a 50% calibration factor should needs to be provided in a manner which ordinary people be applied to CVM results; can comprehend (testing for comprehension is another 7. Respondents should be reminded of their budget con- function of focus groups). There is clearly a trade off straints; and, between the amount of information provided and the ex- 8. Respondents should be given "adequate" information tent to which people can assimilate and understand it about the environmental change in question. within the normal time-span of a CVM survey. No firm These measures are, at the very least, a rather strange guidelines can be provided here. Rather, the researcher mixture of theoretically based recommendation and crude must reach a common sense compromise. Focus groups "rules of thumb". Taken together, they make contingent can identify which aspects of the resource or resource valuation a very expensive exercise if implemented in change are deemed as most important by the individuals full. It would be unfortunate if all CVM practitioners felt concemed. Annex B-Contingent Valuation as a Means of Valuing the Conservation of Coral Reefs 245 Careful Survey Instrument Development market bias than open-ended approaches, although strategic behavior is likely to be greater in open-ended The key feature of any CVM study is the questionnaire formats, which may also result in a greater degree of itself. A successful questionnaire design is now recog- nonresose. nizedto involve three primary steps: i)use offocus groups to find out how respondents identify with the resource in question, what language they use to describe it, and their Means of Sample Collection understanding of draft survey materials; ii) use of verbal CVM responses may be collected by mail shot, face-to- protocols, whereby respondents complete draft question- face surveys or telephone surveys. Of these three alter- naires in a "thinking aloud" mode, to enable researchers natives, telephone surveys are usually considered least to understand how people will react to survey questions desirable. Face-to-face surveys are recommended by the and how they will form their answers; and, iii) pilot sur- NOAA panel, but the context in which the survey is con- veys to pre-test aspects such as design of dichotomous ducted is important (e.g., shopping malls versus people's choice bid levels. homes). Such surveys are also relatively expensive. Mail shots are prone to low response rates and non-response Choice of Bid Collection Technique bias, and the order in which the questions are answered is As was mentioned above, CVM researchers can use open- hard to control. However, mail shots can be very cost ended, bidding game, payment card, or discrete choice effective. Some surveys comparing mail shot with face- (referendumn type) designs. The question of which is pref- to-face questioning have found no significant differences erable is still largely unresolved. Bidding games often in WTP, so long as high response rates can be achieved suffer from starting point bias, while payment cards suf- (i.e., greater than 40%). fer from anchoring effects. Open-ended designs may be more difficult for respondents to complete and may en- Tests of Sensitivity to Scope courage more strategic behavior. Since the NOAA study It is important to show that WTP is sensitive to the scale recommends dichotomous choice approaches, much re- of the environmental change involved, where "scale" is cent attention has been focused on this method. defined in accordance with respondents' perceptions. In a closed-ended referendum, a single payment is Thus, WTP to protect one coral reef should be less than suggested to which respondents either agree or disagree WTP to protect all coral reefs, although marginal WTP is (i.e., a yes or no reply). The calculation of mean or me- expected to decline. The NOAA guidelines also recom- dian WTP from such responses is more complex than the mend such tests of scope. alternatives above, since all that is revealed to the re- searcher is whether the respondent is willing to pay a Tests for Reliability and Validity particular sum (known as the offer price). The researcher must then either make assumptions about the underlying Tests for reliability and validity should be incorporated in distribution of true WTP, or else use non-parametric tech- every CVM. These tests will involve some or all of the niques. Double-bounded referendum models present those following: respondents who say "no" to the first amount with a lower . Convergent validity test. Does CVM produce similar amount and those respondents who say "yes" to the first results for a given resource change as alternative valu- amount with a higher amount, thus eliciting increased in- ation techniques? formation (e.g., Carson et al. 1994). Finally, uncertainty . Theoretical construct validity test. Can WTP responses over valuation can be allowed for in both open and closed- be explained statistically to a satisfactory level and in a ended valuation methods (e.g., Ready et al. 1999). way in accordance with theoretical expectations? For Discrete choice approaches have consistently produced example, does WTP increase with income? The alter- higher estimates of value than open-ended approaches native hypotheses here are that WTP measures are ran- due to the phenomena of "yea-saying" and preference dom numbers and/or are not in accord with economic uncertainty. In addition, they require larger sample sizes, theory. while the calculation of mean WTP is influenced by the * Test-retest criterion. If the CVM survey is repeated on functional form of the logit equation, the extent of any a different sample drawn from the same population, do truncation used, and the design of bid levels (number statistically different results emerge? and amounts). Finally, there is some evidence that dis- * Calibration. Can CVM results be related to actual pay- crete choice approaches suffer from higher hypothetical ments for the resource in question? 246 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling * Debriefing. Have respondents understoodthe questions asked of them? Have they valued the same change in resource allocation that the researcher wished? Special Features of CVM in Developing Country Applications Many applications of CVM now exist in developing coun- tries (for a survey, see Wasike 1996). These may be seen to have resulted from both academic interest in whether CVM could be transferred to a developing country con- text, and from policy andproject needs on the part of agen- cies such as the World Bank and the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). Examples of developing country applications of CVM include Adger et al. (1994) on the value of Mexican forests, Navrud and Mungatana (1994) on the recreational value of wildlife viewing in Kenya, and Swallow and Wouldyalew (1994) on tsetse fly control in Ethiopia. In addition, many au- thors have applied CVM in developing countries to issues of drinking water supply. These include Briscoe (1990) for Brazil, Whittington et al. (1990) for Haiti, and McPhail (1994) for Tunisia. Issues emerging from these applications include: * Low income levels on the part of respondents. Income is often strongly related to WTP in these surveys, yet income levels are often low. Some authors have ex- perimented with WTP denominated in units other than money. Swallow and Woudyalew (1994) used willing- ness to contribute labor hours, while Shyamsundar and Kramer (1996) used rice as a means of payment. * Irregularity of income flows. In subsistence and other types of farming, income flows may be very irregular. Combined with imperfect markets for credit, this means that the temporal nature of payments in a CVM may be important (Wasike and Hanley 1998). * Contextual impacts. These include the presence of lis- teners during surveys and "prestige" effects. Whitting- ton et al. (1993) found statistically significant effects on WTP of such contextual factors in Ghana. * Cultural views on environmental values. The western notion of CBA as a means of taking decisions, and of individual preferences as the measure of environmen- tal values, may fit poorly with prevailing cultural views and values. However, the consensus emerging from the growing number of CVM applications in developing countries is that, provided the analysis is sufficiently attuned to local circumstances, the method can be successfully applied. Annex C Resultats des Recherches sur les Modeles de Soutien et Orientations Futures Resume redige par Kent Gustavson et Richard M Huber Ce chapitre resume les r6sultats d'une recherche de cinq systemes dynamiques c6tiers...>> (Sorensen 1997). Ou ans, financee par le Comite de recherche de la Banque encore, << ICZM est un processus d'administration, mondiale et par des dons provenant des Pays-Bas, de la comprenant les structures legale et institutionnelle Suede et du Canada geres par la Banque mondiale. La necessaires pour assurer que les projets de developpement recherche a ete realisee sous la direction de Richard Huber et de gestion pour les zones c6tieres sont integres aux (Banque mondiale). Les personnes suivantes y ont aussi objectifs environnementaux (sociaux inclus), et sont participe ; ce sont, par ordre alphabetique: RolfBak (Insti- elabores de facon a faire participer les personnes tut neerlandais de recherche maritime), Steve Dollar concernees. Le but de ICZM est de tirer le plus grand (Universite d'Hawai), Kent Gustavson (Bureau d'etude parti des zones c6tieres, tout en minimisant les conflits et Gustavson pour les ressources ecologiques), Erik Meesters effets nefastes des activites sur ces memes zones, sur les (Institut neerlandais de recherche maritime), Frank ressources et sur l'environnement. >> (Banque mondiale Rijsberman (Analyse de ressources), Jack Ruitenbeek 1996, p. 2). Des lignes directrices et des procedures (Bureau d'etude HJ Ruitenbeek de ressources), Susie commencent a apparaitre visant le developpement Westmacott (Analyse de ressources). d'ICZM (Bower et coll. 1994 ; Chua 1993 ; Clark 1995; Pemetta et Edler 1993; Sorensen 1997; Banque mon- Les ecosystemes de recifs coralliens a travers le monde diale 1993a, 1996). d6croissent aunrythme inquiftant :ils sont autantmenac6s L'int6gration est un element clef dans ICZM-en par le stress anthropique localise que par des phenomenes particulier, l'int6gration horizontale a travers divers regionaux et mondiaux, comme l'effet de serre (Bryant et secteurs economiques et agences de gestion dans la plan- coll. 1998 ;Jamesonetcoll. 1995 ; Hodgson 1999 ;Hoegh- ification et l'application (Clark 1995 ; Sorensen 1997). Guldberg 1999 ; Wilkinson 1998). Certains facteurs sem- Les activites c6tieres doivent etre considerees conjointe- blent cependant encourageants: plusieurs recifs coralliens ment, a cause de leur interdependance et de leur impact sont isoles, d'autres sont geres de maniere efficace, et ces prevu - cumulatif et non-additif. Mais comment consid&er 6cosystemes ont la capacite potentielle de se r6tablir ensemble plusieurs secteurs economiques et activites (Wilkinson 1998). Mais il est evident que la gestion humaines? Comment integrer un maintien des ecosys- efficace de la zone c6tiere int6gree (ICZM en anglais) est temes c6tiers soutenant les activites economiques, directe- necessaire pour emp&her un appauvrissement important. ment et indirectement? Quelle devrait etre le processus Ce chapitre resume les resultats de la recherche sur la pour etablir les activites devant etre authorisees dans la creation de modeles de soutien aux decisions pour la zone c6tiere, comment devraient-elles etre elaborees et gestion des recifs coralliens dans la region des tropiques mises en couvre, et que doit etre l'intensite de l'activite en voie de developpement. La strategie de dissemination authorisee ? Sur quelles bases les conflits eventuels entre y est decrite, et des commentaires sont offerts pour les les usagers de la zone c6tiere devraient-ils etre regles ? applications eventuelles et orientations futures de Pour pouvoir repondre a ces questions, il faut considerer recherche. plusieurs parametres, criteres, et divers ensembles de ICZM dirige les activites d'au moins deux secteurs de valeurs. planification, d'ielaboration et d'application de projets. Les modeles de soutien aux decisions economiques Plus formellement, il consiste en <. ... la planification et la ecologiques peuventjouer un r6le important. Parmi eux, gestion integrees des ressources et de l'environnement il y a ceux qui admettent la possibilite d'atteindre une c6tiers par des moyens reposant sur les interconnections solution de gestion efficace d'un point de vue economique, physiques, socio-economiques et politiques, au sein des tout en considerant explicitement les limites qui doivent 248 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling etre imposees sur le niveau et le genre d'activite eco- Resultats des projets de modelisation nomique, A cause des caracteristiques et de la capacite du milieu naturel. Pour ICZM, ces modeles de soutien doivent Le travail de recherche a commence en 1995 selon deux aussi s'adapter al'information surle contexte socioculturel grandes lignes concemant les recifs coralliens dans la de l'environnement de gestion, lequel joue un r6le capi- region des tropiques en voie de developpement: (i) la tal dans la creation de principes directeurs. modelisation rentable d'interventions gestionnaires (c.- Quelles sont les caracteristiques d'un modele de a-d. l'offre de la biodiversite en tant que bien eco- soutien aux decisions ? Premierement, il doit etre capa- nomique); et (ii) la determination de la valeur du sys- ble de r6pondre aux questions specifiques et pertinentes teme marin (c.-A-d., la demande pour la biodiversite). d'orientations. Pour faciliter l'elaboration et la creation Essentiellement, la modelisation A moindre cofut est d'un tel modele, il faudrait pouvoir compter sur une base recherche pour identifier la variation des prix pour les existante de recherche dejA effectuee sur le sujet. interventions, afin d'ameliorer les conditions des recifs Ruitenbeek et coll. (1999a, 1999b) ont remarque que le coralliens, oui les effets de diverses politiques d'inter- manque d'informations sur 1'ecologie des recifs coralliens ventions et activites economiques sont lies A la sante des (c.-a-d. sur les relations et les liens fonctionnels) et les recifs et aux cofits associes aux ameliorations (Brown et caracteristiques des economies qui ont un impact sur ces coll. 1996 ; Huber et Jameson 1998a; Huberet coll. 1994, recifs ralentissent la creation de modeles de soutien aux 1996 ; Meesters 1995 ; Meesters et Westmacott 1996; decisions economiques ecologiques. La majorite de Meesters et coll. 1995, 1996a, 1998 ; Ridgley et Dollar l'information disponible n'est pas directement << pertinente 1996 ; Ridgley et coll. 1995 ; Rijsberman 1995 ; Rijsber- A la politique >> et, dans ce contexte, ne facilite pas la tache man et Westmacott 1996 ; Rijsberman et coll. 1995a de prise de decision ou directement la creation d'un Ruitenbeek et coll. 1999a, 1999b ; Westmacott 1996 modele. Deuxiemement, un modele doit etre compris et Westmacott et Rijsberman 1997 ;Westmacott et coll. 1995). utilise directement par le groupe vise. La communica- Le modele de determination de la valeur du systeme marin tion des donnees doit etre relativement aisee, les essais avait pour but d'identifier les benefices qui peuvent etre faciles A faire, et les resultats faciles A interpreter. realises en soutenant ou ameliorant l'etat des recifs Troisi&mement, on doit distinguer entre l'utilisation du (Gustavson 1998 ; Huber et Ruitenbeek 1997 ; Putterman modele destine surtout A la recherche scientifique et les 1998 ; Ruitenbeek et Cartier 1999; Spash et coll. 1998). modeles utilises surtout comme information pour la prise Les grandes lignes de la recherche consistaient A aider de decision et les politiques-les modeles avec des con- les decideurs dans la gestion et la protection des recifs structions tres experimentales ne doivent pas etre utilises coralliens (Huber et Ruitenbeek 1997 ; Huber et coll. comme outils de soutien aux d6cisions. La th&orie sur 1994). L'tablissement d'une methodologie de cout- laquelle se basent les modeles de soutien aux decisions benefice appropri6e a tre utilisee sur les systemes de rcifs doit etre relativement solide. Par exemple, en ce qui coralliens et les tropiques en voie de developpement, et conceme l'utilisation de modeles ecologiques destines A sur les syst6mes marins en general, contribuera a des in- etre utilises pour prendre des decisions, Friedland (1977) terventions politiques et institutionnelles adequates pour remarque que << l'objectifprincipal n'est pas la d6couverte faciliter une utilisation des recifs economiquement de nouvelles verites, mais la collecte et 1'int6gration de efficace, tout en considerant les impacts sur et le r6le des donnees existantes et leur presentation en une forme utile ecosystemes qui les soutiennent. Un tel groupe d'analyse . . . ~~~~~~~de cout-benefice (ACB) est renresente par l'integration pour une prise de decision >>. Ceci a des consequences des codilbs de 'ABi et re drtenipar iontderateur directes sur le genre de modele approprie. des modnles de rentabiliti et de drtesmination de valeur Finalement, les modNles de soutien aux decisions (Ruitenbeek et Cartier 1999). Trois sites ont e selec doivent etre flexibles aux changements des elements des tionn6s comme etude de cas pour tester la m6thodologie: donnees, des relations specifiees dans le modele, et A la (i) Curacao, les Antilles n&erlandaises ; (ii) les Maldives; ' . .' ~~~~~~~~~~et (iii) Montego Bay, Jamaique. creation de solutions de rechange ou de scenanos con- ' i sider&s par le modele. Aussi, il est important que les besoins des usagers soient pris en consideration. Un modele qui utilise des donnees qui ne s'appliquent plus A un lieu Rijsberman etWestmacott (1996; cf. aussi Meesters 1995; particulier, dont les relations economiques ecologiques Meesters et coll. 1996a ; Rijsberman et coll. 1995a; sous-jacentes ne sont plus correctes, ou qui ne permet plus Westmacott et coll. 1995) ont elabore un modele d'an- le changement de solutions de rechange de developpement alyse de rentabilite pour la gestion des r6cifs coralliens et ou de scenario, ne sera pas utile A long terme. la protection de la c6te sud de Curacao. Le modele de Annex C-Resultats des Recherches sur les Modeles de Soutien et Orientations Futures 249 soutien aux decisions a et creer pour faciliter la com- Westmacott et Rijsberman 1997) ont elabore un modele munication entre les interesses sur les orientations de d'analyse de rentabilite pour la gestion et la protection developpement et les strategies de gestion environne- des recifs coralliens au nord et au sud de Male, capitale mentale ; l'analyse des impacts sur la sante des recifs des Maldives. Entant que modele elabore enrmemtemps coralliens des creations envisagees a travers les decharges que celui de Corail-Curacao, le but etait d'examiner si un des eaux residuaires et des sediments, integrant ainsi modele adapte aux Maldives (Corail-Maldives) pourrait l'utilisation de la terre, le tourisme et la planification de servir comme un outil utile de soutien aux decisions. Ia conservation ; et l'analyse de la rentabilite des inter- Westmacott et Rijsberman (1997) decrivent le modele et ventions gestionnaires ayant pour but de maintenir la sante les resultats d'analyses preliminaires. des recifs coralliens. Le modele utilise une interface Ainsi qu'avec Corail-Curacao, le modele de Corail- structuree d'ordinateur. Maldives etait concu pour permettre aux decideurs Les resultats des trois scenarios (un scenario de d'etablir la rentabilite relative des diverses interventions creation de reference statu quo et deux choix de scenario de gestion environnementale pour diverses options de de croissance) indiquent qu'il est tres probable que Curacao developpement economique dans le cadre d'ameliorations connaitra des reductions importantes dans la sante et obtenues dans la sante des recifs (c.-a-d., utilisant des in- I'abondance des recifs coralliens au cours des dix pro- dex de couverture et rugosite de recifs coralliens comme chaines annees. Neanmoins, la modelisation indique aussi mesures provisoires). Les impacts des scenarios peuvent que les interventions ayant trait aux strategies de gestion etre des indicateurs economiques, sociaux et environne- environnementale peuvent freiner cette tendance et, dans mentaux qui sont selectionnes des le debut des analyses certains cas, mener au retablissement des recifs au-dela par l'utilisateur du modele. Les priorites des lignes de leur etat actuel. Les interventions suggerees incluent directrices et les choix possibles de gestion ont ete des combinaisons de traitement des eaux usees, une identifies apres des discussions avec des agences evacuation appropriee des dechets, et des reductions de gouvemementales. Etant donne la nature des impacts sur la pollution des raffineries ; l'application de differents les recifs coralliens dans les Maldives, les interventions moyens pour preserver les plages et la reduction des de gestion ont pour objectif principal de minimiser les d6chets des industries et du transport maritime n'etaient degats physiques (Westmacott et Rijsberman 1997). pas efficaces (Rijsberman et Westmacott 1996). Par Westmacott et Rijsberman (1997) illustrent l'utilisation contre, Rijsberman et Westmacott ont aussi trouve que du modele avec des exemples. les resultats de la modelistion peuvent etres particuliers a Westmacott et Rijsberman (1997) constatent qu'il 1'echelle spatiale examinee, et que ces dernieres interven- existe un eventail d'indicateurs qui peuvent etre utilises tions peuvent en effet etre rentables et appropri6es dans pour d6crire la reussite ou la defaite eventuelles d'une un contexte local plus petit. strategie de gestion de zones c6tieres - bien que le modele Rijsberman et Westmacott (1996) soulignent que soit quelque peu flexible, 1'ensemble des indicateurs de l'utilite d'un outil de modelisation ne peut etre demontre gestion des zones c6tieres qui peuvent etre selectionn6s qu'A travers un programme qui encourage une cooperation et examines par l'usager est limite par necessit&. De plus, etroite entre ceux qui sont concemns par la mise en ceuvre l'utilisation de mesures rentables qui ne sont liees qu'aux du scenario et par la procedure de prise de decisions. variations de la sante des recifs coralliens peut omettre Corail-Curacao nous permet d'ordonner les mesures et d'autres strategies tres importantes pour le succes d'un d'explorer la fornulation de diverses combinaisons de programme particulier d'ICZM (parex., les problemes de mesures afin d'atteindre un objectif specifique pour la sante publique). Les resultats de scenarios de modelisation couverture et la diversite des r6cifs. Par exemple, pour pour le soutien aux decisions pourraient etre mis dans le atteindre une couverture de 14% et une diversite de 50% contexte de buts et exigences sociaux dans la formulation (comme indique par le modele), il faudrait un investisse- de projets de creation et de gestion. Ainsi qu'avec Corail- ment initial de 310 millions de NAF, avec un cofit annuel Curacao, le modele peut ne pas bien refleter les condi- operationnel de 6 million de NAF (Rijsberman et tions locales a une echelle spatiale en-dessous de celle Westmacott 1996). qui est incorporee dans les elements du modee. Corail-Maldives La determination de la valeur des be'neflces des Westmacott et Rijsberman (1997; cf. aussi Brown et coll. recifs coraliens 1996 ; Meesters et Westmacott 1996 ; Rijsberman 1995; Pour arriver a une valeur economique totale (VET), les Rijsberman et Westmacott 1996 ; Westmacott 1996; etudes d'evaluation economique des systemes naturels 250 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling font souvent la distinction entre les valeurs d'utilisation des terres en danger d'erosion si la fonction protectrice et les valeurs de non-usage, ainsi qu'entre les valeurs des recifs est compromise, base sur les 125 hectares d'utilisation directe et les valeurs d'utilisation indirecte. vulnerables, est estimee a 65 millions de dollars US (en Ces distinctions refletent souvent la methode d'estimation. dollars constants de 1996). La valeur mediane de VAN Lors de la sp6cification de la structure d'evaluation des de toutes les valeurs d'utilisation locale pour le Parc marin recifs coralliens pour le Parc marin de Montego Bay, il de Montego Bay est d'a peu pres 381 millions de dollars etait beaucoup plus utile de differencier trois classifica- US. En prenant une superficie totale de recif de 42,65 tions d'evaluation de biodiversite marine: (i) les m6thodes hectare comme reference, ceci revient a 8,63 millions/ha d'evaluation de production orientees vers l'offre (c.-a-d., de dollars US ou 0,893 million ha-' annee-' sur une base la contribution de fonctions de production des systemes annuelle (avec un taux d'escompte de 10%). marins a la valeur 6conomique) ; (ii) les methodes d'.valuation d'utilit6 orient6es vers la demande (c.-t-d., Contributions a P'utilit - Parc marin de Montego la contribution des systemes marins sur l'utilite d'un Bay et c8te sud de Cura,ao individu ou de la socite) ; et (iii) les methodes Spashetcoll.(1998)ontutiliselamnithodedes<> d'evaluation de recuperation de rente orientees vers le (CVM) pour estimer les valeurs d'utilite associees a la profit (c.-a-d., la contribution des systemes marins a travers biodiversite des recifs coralliens a Montego Bay en la distribution de valeur d'utilisation comme rente Jamaique et le long de la c6te sud du Curacao. L'Utude recuperee, profits, ou valeur ajout6e ; Huber et Ruitenbeek est particulierement interessante, parce qu'elle examine 1997 ; Ruitenbeek et Cartier 1999). Pour la derniere les valeurs d'utilite associees a une ressource environne- categorie, la contribution potentielle de la biodiversite mentale marine (c.--a-d., la qualite des recifs coralliens), des recifs a travers la creation d'une entreprise de bio- lesquelles avaient toujours e negligees dans le passe. prospection a ett examinee. De plus, la recherche a aussi contribue a determiner les sources de parti pris quant aux preferences lexico- Fonctions de contribution de la production - Parc graphiques qui surgissent quand un r6pondant est reticent marin de Montego Bay a accepter un arbitrage pour la perte d'un bien ou un serv- Les valeurs d'utilisation locales furent estimees par ice (c.-a-d., en refusant de faire des choix, ils n'agissent Gustavson (1998) pour deux larges categories d'utilisa- pas selon une theorie economique). Pour ces offres nulles, tion-les pecheries a proximite de la c6te et le tourisme. des distinctions ont ete faites entre ceux qui manquent de Les valeurs d'utilisation indirecte associee a la protection moyens financiers, ceux qui considerent les ameliorations cotiere ont aussi e estimees. Ces utilisations locales inutiles, ceux qui preferent depenser l'argent sur d'autres des eaux du Parc marin de Montego Bay 6taient non seule- biens ou services, ou ceux qui protestent d'avoir a faire ment plus importantes pendant l'application au demier un tel choix. Parmi ceux qui n'offraient aucune off-re et site d'etude, mais aussi identifi6es comme une haute donc faisaient preuve de parti pris, etaient inclus les priorit6 pour la politique g6n&rale. Les valeurs rapport6es resquilleurs: ils pensent que le paiement n'est pas une par Gustavson montrent a quel point la contribution des solution adequate, n'ont pas confiance en l'institution productions provenant des recifs risque etre perdu si les proposee, ou rejettent le mecanisme de paiement. Le efforts de conservation ne sont pas adequats. sondage a aussi explore l'etendue de positions morales, Les services de tourisme de Montego Bay compren- basees sur le droit, qui seraient compatible avec les nent les hotels, les services de la restauration, les diver- pr6ferences lexicographiques. Pour faciliter la compar- tissements (y compris les sports et attractions nautiques aison avec les resultats des etudes sur l'utilisation locale independants), le transport, les achats, et autres services et les evaluations de bioprospection dans Montego Bay, divers. Les estimations de la valeur actuelle nette (VAN) la CVM a aussi e formulee pour separer les valeurs associee au tourisme sont de l'ordre de 210 millions de d'utilisation directe et celle d'utilisation indirecte et de dollars US (i un taux d'escompte de 15%) a 630 millions non-usage. de dollars US (a un taux d'escompte de 5%) en 1996. Les repondants etaient invites a contribuer a des fonds Les estimations de VAN en 1998 associees avec la peche fiduciaires qui seraient geres par un parc marin, afin sont de -1,66 million de dollars US i 7,49 millions de d'augmenter la biodiversite a l'interieur du pare. Le dollars US (monnaie de base: dollars de 1996; en utilisant paiement serait fait une fois par an pendant cinq ans, et les extremes, respectivement, de valeurs nettes annuelles augmenterait le couvert de recif coralliens de 25%. et un taux d'escompte de 5% ; les valeurs d'escompte de L'analyse de la courbe d'offre (c.-a-d., l'analyse << tobit >> 10% et 15% sont dans cette intervalle). La VAN du total et une estimation de maximum de vraisemblance) a four- Annex C-Resultats des Recherches sur les Modeles de Soutien et Orientations Futures 251 ni de l'information sur les variables qui determinent la L'Identification d'Interventions a Moindre Cout- variation de la disposition A payer (DAP) et a perfec- Parc Marin de Montego Bay tionne 1'estimation des DAP. Pour les moyennes des C . l echantillons, la DAP etait de 2,08 $ US par personne a om orlsmdlsd oalCr~oe oal Curantilon, et 3 $ US par personne e Maldives, Ruitenbeek et coll. (1999a; cf. aussi Ridgley Curacao, et 3,24 $ US par personne en Janmaique (Spash et coll. 1995 ; Ridgley et Dollar 1996 ; Ruitenbeek et coll. et coll. 1998). La difference entre les deux est expliquee 1999b) ont applique une m6thodologie de logique de l'in- par le melange de touristes et de residents, les Jamalcains certain pour identifier les interventions amoindre cofit qui 'tant disposes a payer presque deux fois plus que leurs meneraient a une augmentation de I'abondance des recifs homologues A Curacao. En utilisant le profil d'un vis- coralliens dans 1'enceinte du Parc marin de Montego Bay. iteur et d'une population locale typique et un taux Les procedures de logique de l'incertain sont utilis6es dans d'escompte de 10%, ceci se traduit en une valeur un modele d'impact ecologique sur les recifs coralliens approximative de DAP de 4,5 million $ US A Curacao et pour generer une surface dose-reponse complexe qui 20 million $ US a Montego Bay (Spash et coll. 1998). emule la relation entre I'abondance des recifs coralliens et divers intrants dans le contexte de l'environnement Contributions eventuelles de bioprospection- main abiotique. Ceci est reli6 A un mod&le conomique Parc marn de Montego Bay non lineaire qui decrit les activites 6conomiques actuelles Le mod&le pour estimer la bioprospection s'est concentr& et futures dans huit secteurs, dans les interventions de sur les revenus moyens net, utilisant les informations politique et technique, et dans les frais de pollution A localisees des couts pour la Jamaique, ainsi que les valeurs Montego Bay. L'optimisation nous donne des apercus de ben6fices et de taux de succes bas6es sur l'information sur les moyens les plus rentables pour proteger les recifs proprietaire pour les produits marins dans les Caralbes coralliens pour divers niveaux recherches de qualites de (Ruitenbeek et Cartier 1999). Les hypotheses du modele r6cifs. parametrique comprenaient la caracteristique des rela- A Montego Bay en Jamaique, une augmentation de tions especes/regions et la relation de partage de revenus jusqu'a 20% de l'abondance de recifs coralliens peut etre entre les institutions (c.-a-d., un partage conditionnel du atteinte avec l'utilisation de mesures appropriees a un cout benefice net et un tarif d'echantillon A niveau fixe). reel de 153 millions $ US sur 25 ans (Ruitenbeek et coll. L'analyse de sensibilite a explore les effets des variations 1999a). Les mesures sp6cifiques de politiques considerees des parametres du modele sur la valeur estimee, y com- incluaient l'installation d'un piege de sedimentation sur pris les variations dans la surface totale de substrat de la Riviere de Montego, la plantation d'arbres sur la crete recifs a couvert vivant disponible et la specification des elevee, l'installation d'un systeme d'aeration de dechets, relations especes/region comme co-determinants du celle d'un centre de traitement a grande 6chelle, la vul- nombre attendu d'echantillons disponibles pour tester. garisation agricole pour foumir des technologies qui D'autres options pour le modele incluent un tarif de r6duisent les d6chets, l'installation d'un emissaire sondage fixe seulement, des parts de revenu melanges, d'evacuation et d'une station de pompage, l'amelioration des cofits eleves de recherche-developpement, des << taux de la recuperation des ordures menageres, et l'application de frappe >> bas, et un programme de sondage raccourci. d'une taxe h6teliere. Certaines interventions 6taient Une fonction d'avantage marginale qui reliait la valeur relativement rentables. Par exemple, la r6cuperation ou le << prix >> de biodiversite marine a l'abondance de d'ordures menageres, l'installation d'un emissaire recif coralliens fat d6riv&. d'6vacuation et l'utilisation d'un piege de sedimentation Une valeur de << cas de base > de 70 millions $ US a sur la Riviere Montego imposeraient un cofit actuel de 12 e calculee pour les r6cifs du Parc Marin de Montego millions $ US et auraient pour consequence d'am6liorer Bay, de laquelle a peu pres 7 millions $ US (c.-A-d., 10%) le couvert de recif corallien par plus de 10% (Ruitenbeek pourraient vraisemblablement etre r6cuperes par la et coll. 1999a). Jamaique sous forme de redevances ou d'arrangements Une demonstration cle de la recherche etait que les derente (RuitenbeeketCartier 1999). Lavaleurmarginale methodologies conventionnelles pour mesurer la de bioprospection de recifs a e 6valuee a 530 $ US/ha rentabilite peuvent aboutir A des solutions qui ne sont pas ou encore 225 000 $ US par pourcentage de variation de optimales quand les politiques sont appliquees A des l'abondance de recifs coralliens (correspondant a un prix systemes complexes. En effet, les analyses de rentabilite de planification local jamaicain de 22 500 $ US par ont tendance A supposer que les interventions individuelles pourcentage de variation de l'abondance de recif sont distinctes et independantes, et que les benefices corallien). peuvent etre separes des coats (souvent quand les 252 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling benefices ne peuvent pas etre definis). Quand il s'agit de I1 est possible d'atteindre une optimisation globale en systemes tres complexes tels que les recifs coralliens, les utilisant la fonction de cofit marginal elaboree dans l'etude synergies, les retroactions et autres interdependances en- de l'intervention A moindre cou.t pour le Parc marin de tre les interventions individuelles et le niveau de sante Montego Bay (Ruitenbeek et coll. 1999a), conjointement qui en resulte des recifs coralliens peuvent invalider les avec les approximations de benefice marginal. Une recommandations des interventions d'une politique amelioration d'abondance des recifs coralliens de 13% evaluee individuellement qui serait appliquee d'une est sugg6r6e parRuitenbeeket Cartier (1999; c.-A-d., d'un maniere sequentielle. Par exemple, le reboisement etait couvert approximatif de 29% evalue A partir des condi- l'une des interventions optimales pour une amelioration tions d'equilibre du modele - cf. Ruitenbeek et coll. 1999a des recifs coralliens de l'ordre de 14% et 20%, mais ne - A un couvert de 42%), necessitant des depenses nettes figurait pas parmi les mesures optimales pour une de 27 millions $ US. Les interventions necessaires en- amelioration de 15% ou 16% (Ruitenbeek et coll. 1999a). trameraient l'installation de pieges de sedimentation, Ruitenbeek et coll. (1999a) ont remarque que cela signifie l'aeration des dechets, l'installation d'evacuation de que les objectifs de sante de recifs coralliens, en ce qui dechets, I'application d'une recuperation amelioree de conceme les benefices secondaires, doivent etre etablis d6chets solides, et l'application de stimulants Aconomiques avant d'appliquer des politiques d'intervention. pour ameliorer la gestion des dechets dans l'industrie h6teliere. Une analyse de sensibilite suggere que cette Integration des re'sultats de Montego Bay pour un optimisation est assez resistante aux variations d'approx- niveau d'intervention efficace imations des benefices economiques nets-les benefices La synth6se des diverses etudes d'Wvaluation de r6cifs devraient etre augmentes de 275 millions $ US, ou dim- coralliens pour le Parc marin de Montego Bay permet inues de 300 millions $ US, pour que l'amelioration vis6e d'obtenir une fonction de valeur totale et de b6nAfice de la qualit6 de recifs coralliens augmente de plus de 20% marginal (ou prix) (Ruitenbeek et Cartier 1999). Pour (Ruitenbeek et Cartier 1999). obtenir la fonction de benefice marginal, reliant les prix La valeur humaine de lutiisation des aux variations d'abondance de r6cif corallien, il fallait r,cifs coralliens ajouter d'autres hypotheses ayant trait au lien entre les categories de valeur et l'abondance ou la qualite de recifs En plus de l'application de l'analyse de rentabilite, l'eval- coralliens. En particulier, on presume qu'il existe une uation de ressources ou CBA, il est important que les relation lineaire entre la qualite des recifs et les valeurs decideurs considerent d'une maniere comprehensive et d'utilisation locale et les valeurs d'utilite de non-usage. systematique le contexte social, culturel et economique 11 est tres probable que cela ne soit pas justifie, mais de creation de politiques et de changement ecologique. presumer une relation moins complique n'est pas non plus Un tel contexte ou information sur la << structure humaine >> justifiable avec les donnees actuelles. Seuls les resultat ne font pas traditionnellement partie d'une telle analyse, du modele d'evaluation de bioprospection (Ruitenbeek dans laquelle des indicateurs ou mesures monetaires et Cartier 1999) permettaient la specification d'une forme quantitatives sont souvent appliques dans un environne- fonctionnelle differente. Les valeurs marginales nettes, ment de prise de decision A o evaluation automatique >>, comme le notent Ruitenbeek et Cartier (1999), seront reduisant ainsi l'interpretation approfondie du niveau probablement surestim6es dans certains cas et sous- approprie ou optimal, et des types d'interventions et de estimees dans d'autres. politiques necessaires. Le benefice total attribue aux recifs coralliens du Parc Les methodologies d'evaluation economique ap- marin de Montego Bay est evalue A 470 millions $ US; pliquees dans ces projets etaient destinees a enumerer les chaque variation de 1% genere A peu pres un benefice benefices totaux recus actuellement des recifs coralliens, marginal de 10 millions $ US, ou encore le prix marginal A travers les contributions de fonction de production et des recifs coralliens est d'A peu pres 23 million $ US /ha d'utilite humaine (ainsi que de rentes ou redevances (Ruitenbeek et Cartier 1999). La majorite de la valeur eventuelles provenant de la creation d'entreprises de est attribuee au tourisme. La protection cotiere et les bioprospections marines). En theorie, de tels benefices benefices d'utilite de non-usage contribuent aussi, mais monetaires refleteront l'ensemble local de valeurs. A un moindre degre. Les pecheries existantes et l'elabora- Neanmoins, reduire l'information sociale, culturelle et tion eventuelle d'un programme de bioprospection ont un economique en une seule valeur metrique resulte en une effet negligeable sur les valeurs marginales (Ruitenbeek grande perte. Cette perte a ete demontree par la mise au et Cartier 1999). point et l'application d'une methodologie d'evaluation Annex C-Resultats des Recherches sur les Modeles de Soutien et Orientations Futures 253 socio-6conomique rapide pour fournir une explication sur d'agence gestionnaire qui sont lies explicitement aux les groupes utilisant les recifs coralliens dans le cadre activites de tourisme ou de pecherie dans la region. Les d'etude du site a Montego Bay (Bunce et Gustavson imp8ts de benefices des societ&s, ou l'imp6t sur les ben- 1998a; Bunce et coll. 1999). Une telle information facili- efices particuliers dans le cas de pecheurs ou benefices terait I'adaptation de strategies de gestion selon les profils distribues individuellement des entreprises de tourisme, d'utilisation des groupes, les priorit6s gestionnaires, et les peuvent aussi recuperer une partie de la rente. Neanmoins, ressources disponibles. En gros, l'information sur la les taxes sont payes a la perception generale du gouveme- << structure humaine >> aide a identifier une solution ment et par consequent ne sont pas disponibles pour l'utili- economiquement rentable, aussi viable d'un point de vue sation dans la gestion du parc marin. II est important social que culturel. Cette information a demontre une d'encourager la tendance actuelle du Parc Marin de utilite dans l'61aboration de politiques et programmes Montego Bay a instaurer des frais d'utilisation. efficaces pour le Parc marin de Montego Bay (Bunce et coll.1999 cf ussiHube et amesn 198c).Etude de cas -Conseil pour les institutions sur coil. 1999; cf. aussi Huber et Jameson 1998c). I'orientation de la bioprospection en Jamaique Contexte d'orientation et conseils Putterman (1998) donne des recommandations particu- lieres sur la politique et le renforcement institutionnel en Eltude de cas - La recuperation de rente provenant ce qui concerne l'incorporation de l'utilisation de res- de l'utilisation des recifs coralliens de Montego Bay sources genetiques dans ICZM en Jamaique, un outil La recuperation d'au moins une partie de la rente, potentiellement puissant pour la conservation et le d6vel- provenant d'utilisations directes, pour payer la gestion oppement conomique. La diversite genetique ou molecu- necessaire et l'amelioration eventuelle de la ressource est laire, une mesure de diversite biologique dans une espece, un aspect particulierement interessant pour les autorites peut engendrer de nouveaux produits pharmaceutiques et du Parc marin de Montego Bay, et pour toute autorite de industriels, et de nouvelles varietes agricoles. Plusieurs systemes marins c6tiers. En d'autres termes, il existe des strategies pour la collaboration de recherche peuvent etre cofits sociaux associes a la conservation et la gestion de employes en tant que strategie reduisant le risque pour la ressource qui doivent etre payes par les usagers. optimiser la capacit6 de decouvrir de nouveaux produits En tant que composante de l'etude d'evaluation d'utili- chimiques ou genes prometteurs ; de meme, plusieurs mec- sation locale (Gustavson 1998), les frais gouvemementaux anismes existent pour partager les benefices et options pour actuels, qui recuperent peut-etre une partie de larente, ont la compensation (cf. Putterman 1998). Actuellement, il et etudies. Imposer des frais d'usage ne fait pas actuelle- n'existe pas de politique jamaicaine pour contr6ler l'acces ment partie de la politique du Parc marin de Montego aux ressources genetiques, comme le remarque Putterman Bay (un mecanisme reconnu pour la recuperation de la (1998). Une revision des institutions et politiques rente), bien qu'elle soit presente dans les etapes initiales. jamaicaines aboutit aux recommandations suivantes: D'autres frais gouvernementaux, lies specifiquement au * Pour 6laborerun ensemble d'options de politiques pour tourisme ou aux activites lies aux pecheries, peuvent les ressources, il faut incorporer les obligations dans la recuperer une portion du surplus du consommateur ou du Convention sur la diversite biologique et la Conven- producteur, mais ne sont pas forcement destines a ce but. tion des Nations Unies sur la Loi de la mer; il faut Sont inclus les frais de permis d'affaires, de permis de aussi tenir compte de l'effet de l'elaboration de pol- pecheries, de plage, et les taxes de depart de touristes. itiques sur les activit&s du secteur priv6; En principe, les frais de permis sont percus pour payer * R&glementer a l'avance l'acces aux ressources les cofits de regulation et d'administration des activites gdnfique par le biais de permis et de contrats qui ou de affares u gouememet. Acune nformtion d6finiraient les droits it ces ressources avant qu'il n'y ou des affaires du gouvernement. Aucune information ait prelevement ou exportation d'echantillons; n'est disponible sur le cout actuel pour reguler les activites I relatives aux recifs, mais il est tres probable que ces cofits prOprirtes tangibles et savoir terdsit(orimelle) pour les ne soient pas percXus selon le bareme des frais en vigueur. qui a le droit de participer aux negociations de contrats En effet, les frais de plage en place etaient generalement de transfert de ressources genetiques ou savoir bas et, bien qu'ils varient plus ou moins avec le genre traditionnel, et d'en tirer parti; d'utilisation, ne sont pas lies au niveau de surplus de . Developper a priori des procedures de consentement, producteurs. Aucun de ces fonds n'est explicitement afin de donner aux doyens legaux de droits sur les destine a financer la gestion du Parc marin de Montego ressources genetiques et savoir traditionnel un moyen Bay. I1 n'existe pas d'autres frais gouvernementaux ou de controler l'utilisation de ces ressources ; et, 254 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling * Creer une formule de partage national pour convertir COCOMO - Modele de Soutien aux d6cisions du Recif une partie du revenu monetaire du developpement d'un Corallien de Montego Bay; nouveau bien aux biens publics, afin d'assurer un . La prolongation des s6minaires finances par la Gestion partage juste et equitable des benefices crees par des Connaissances de la Banque mondiale, aux niveaux l'utilisation de ressources genetiques. local et national, avec pour objectif de recevoir une Les valeurs actuelles nettes d'une bioprospection retroinformation sur les dcouvertes de la modelisation eventuelle sont petites par rapport aux valeurs d'usage de recherche appliquee, identifier les regions prioritaires local associees au tourisme et a la protection des c6tes pour des recherches futures, et identifier des moyens (Gustavson 1998; Ruitenbeek et Cartier 1999) et, comme eventuels pour renforcer la capacite locale et regionale mentionne ci-dessus, elles auront un effet negligeable sur pour g6rer les ressources cbti&res; les valeurs marginales de recifs coralliens. Neanmoins, * La creation de programmes pour les usagers sur les sites Rui ket Cartier (1999) remarquent que les impacts Internet de la Gestion de Connaissances de la Banque Rus cofite inbeek utionnels associ6s au d6roulement du pr mondiale (BIONODE et Ressources d'Eau) et autres de s c outs institutionne ls as socies au deroulement du pro - sie nent t gramme national de bioprospection en Jamaique recom- aide aux f fde mande par Putterman (1998) sont minimes. C'est la Laideauxfondsfiduciaires dunParcmarindeMontego volonte de la direction locale et des concernms locaux du qui peut ta reprodui sr e dcnomme Regix qui peut etre reproduit sur une echelle regionale Parc marin de Montego Bay de s'engager dans une telle (Jameson et Huber 1999). entreprise qui est maintenant remise en question. Les parties concem6es participant aux .tudes de cas 1R6sultats de modelisation et Conseil sur la politique ont exprime leur d6sir et interet pour une comprehension pour l'utilisation de modele de soutien aux decisions plus complete des activites de developpement en cours et planifiees en ce qui conceme la zone c6ti&re. Qu'ils soient tiqae et les institutions qui se posent quand on consid6re des peheurs locaux des organisateurs de sports nautiques l'elaboration eventuelle d'un programme de bioprospec- .haitns dea ou des i . pes tion i Montego Bay, des questions de politique surgissent habitants locaux ou des tourmstes, il est pmportant de des rsultats de la mod-lisation d'intervention ' moindre respondre a ces demandes d'information pour avoir une cofit et du benefice de recifs coralliens. Ruitenbeek et gestion efficace de la zone c6ti6re La strategie de dis Cartier (1 999) remarquent que, si 1'efficacit6 6conomique semination est necessaire pour augmenter la participation est le but, les cofits et les b6n~fices doivent 8tre consid&r&s des divers groupes concernes dans l'evaluation des vari- ' ~~~~~~~~~~~~ations dans l'environnement marnn et dans l'attenuation dans le cadre de la recherche quant aux systemes com- a plesnon linaires comme los rcifs coralliens. Uno ou la prevention des impacts negatifs sur les recifs palysex e . . coralliens. La creation d'un reseau de decideurs et de analyse de coflt-efficacit6 ne suffirait pas. Ruitenbook et Cartier sugg&rent aussi une plus grande attention au niveau rechercheurs-une << communaute de mise en pratique >> local sur les dimensions socio-economiques et gestion- -pour faciliter le partage d'expriences intemationales sur la restauration des recifs coralliens et pour promouvoir naires d'usagos directes, y compnis l'erncouragemernt de .a rehrh..jit etasiiprat r6gimes de gestion locale pratiques qui considWrent et la recherche conjoite est aussi importat incluent les personnes concernees. Cette suggestion est aussi soulignee par Bunce et Gustavson (1998a). COCOMO COCOMO est un modele de soutien aux d6cisions pour la gestion de la zone c6tiere de Montego Bay qui illustre Dissemination les problemes c6tiers et qui 6value les effets des activites humaines. C'est aussi un bon outil pour elaborer les poli- Les approches d'intervention et evaluation a moindre cofit tiques et renforcer la capacite dans la gestion des zones de cette recherche de modelisation sont un outil utile de c6ti&res integrees (ICZM). Le site d'etude de cas de Mon- soutien aux decisions, de politique et de formation pour tego Bay a ete selectionn6 pour le projet de modelisation les directeurs de recifs coralliens et pour les decideurs interactif a cause des besoins critiques pour un tel outil. gouvemementaux qui font face a des probkmes majeurs Le centre urbain croit rapidement, avec un developpe- de gestion de recifs coralliens. La strategie de dissemina- ment souvent ad hoc et non planifie. Plusieurs change- tionjointe pour les projets comporte les aspects suivants: ments physiques ont e effectues sur la zone c6ti&re, y * Le lancement d'une exposition itin6rante pour dis- compris le remplissage de la c6te, la destruction de man- seminer les resultats, qui inclurait un CD-ROM du groves et la sedimentation, en plus d'enrichissement Annex C-Resultats des Recherches sur les Modeles de Soutien et Orientations Futures 255 nutritifc6tier, pressions intensives de peche, et utilisation point et d'appliquer un projet de restauration et de gestion extensive par les sports nautiques, plongeons, et indus- de crete A moindre cout, et ensuite transferer l'information tries de tourisme. Ces changement ont engendre une baisse et la technologie A d'autres pays tropicaux americains qui de la qualite de l'eau et des ressources c6ti&res, et ont eu ont des problemes semblables. Une caracteristique des impacts sur l'ecosysteme precieux de recifs coralliens. importante du projet ReefFix est qu'il prend une direc- En particulier, la recherche de modelisation appliquee tion guidee par des besoins specifiques de politiques pour de COCOMO aide les fonds fiduciaires du Parc marin de la gestion des recifs coralliens qui souffrent d'impacts Montego Bay avec un programme coherent et compre- considerables. L'element de renforcement de capacite hensif qui: comprend le renforcement de capacites humaines et * Sensibilise et encourage l'unanimite de la part des par- institutionnelles pour la gestion integree, la science, la ties concernees en ce qui conceme les priorites envi- formation et l'education. I1 est important de ne pas seule- ronnementales A Montego Bay; ment transferer l'information dans le contexte du pays en * Identifie les exigences qui existent pour combattre les voie de developpement, mais aussi d'encourager l'echange problemes de gestion de zone cAti6re A Montego Bay A d'experience et de creer une expertise locale sur la gestion long et A court termes avec les diverses organisations de recifs coralliens. Le programme s'est fixe les objectifs gouvemementales et non gouvemementales (ONG) suivant: concernees; * Utiliser l'outil de modele de soutien aux decisions * Identifie les investissements environnementaux r6alis- developpe pour le Parc Marin de Montego Bay ables, les solutions A cout relativement bas ; et, (COCOMO) pour foumir l'information A la direction * F.tablit un dialogue avec les parties concernees. et aux decideurs locaux; L'interface conviviale du modele est creee pour les * Mettre au point et appliquer un plan d'action pour la decideurs, les specialistes, et ceux qui sont interesses par gestion des cretes pour le Parc marin de Montego Bay, les probl6mes c6tiers de Montego Bay. Elle utilise . afin d'ameliorer la qualite de l'eau marine et d'accroitre I'abondance de rAcifs coralhiens; grand nombre de graphique pour donner une vue I d'ensemble rapide aux usagers sur les problemes cAtiers - Mettre au point et appliquer un plan d'action pour la et comment le d6veloppement, les p8cheries, le tourisme, gestion des pecheries pour le Parc marin de Montego ' '~~~c~t Bay, afin d'accroitre l'abondance de poissons, I'agriculture, l'industrie, et les menages affectent la cdte , ' a.io desccroitin Iaonomiqes poursoes f X ~~~~~~~~~d'arn6liorer les conditions economiques pour les et les recifs coralliens de Montego Bay. L'information pecheurs, et contribuer A rendre le Parc marin de sur la contribution des recifs coralliens A Montego Bay A Montego Bay autonome ; et, travers les pecheries, le tourisme et la protection c6ti&re . Appliquer un plan d'action pour la demonstration aux est incorporee dans le modele. Plusieurs decisions peuvent Ameriques tropicales qui ameliorera la capacite ICZM etre prises sur I 'interface de 1 'usager pour proteger la zone pour la restauration des ecosystemes de recifs coralliens c6ti&re et les recifs coralliens, certaines etant plus rentables dans d'autres pays. Le plan peut inclure l'application que d'autres. COCOMO predit 1'ensemble d'intervention d'un format de modele de soutien aux decisions A A moindre cout pour realiser une abondance specifiee de moindre cout de ICZM qui peut etre adapter A d'autres recifs coralliens. Par consequent, les impacts des activites localites. de developpement peuvent etre explores, et des priorites peuvent etre etablies pour des decisions futures de gestion de c6tes. En utilisant ce modele, l'usager acquiert une Applications de procedures et de politiques conscience unique de la facon dont les relation entre les activites et les communications c6ti&res parmi les parties Une optimisation economique rationnelle, qui considere concernees sont ameliorees. seulement les couts d'interventions gestionnaires con- jointement avec l'evaluation des benefices economiques ReefFix totaux recus (cf. solution pour Montego Bay donnee dans Ruitenbeek et Cartier 1999), peut reduire le r6le des Unprojet de restaurationICZM de recifcorallien, gestion concernes et des agences gouvernementales en ce qui de crete et de demonstration de renforcement de capacite conceme l'etablissement de buts et l'expression de -ReefFix-est en train d'etre elabore A travers le Parc groupes divers de valeurs representees par divers groupes marin de Montego Bay. ReefFix represente la phase d'usagers. En effet, c'etait l'approche generale de d'application des resultats de la modelisation de soutien Rijsberman et Westmacott (1996) et Westmacott et aux decisions. Le but du programme est de mettre au Rij sberman (1997) dans la mise au point et 1'application 256 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling des modeles de soutien aux decisions de Corail-Cura9ao bien que les resultats annonces dans ce rapport soient et Corail-Maldives afin de se concentrer sur la capacite derives de modeles tres avances d'un point de vue tech- des decideurs d'analyser, A travers plusieurs scenarios nologique, il existe des lacunes serieuses dans la quantite definis par les usagers, la rentabilite de differentes inter- et la qualite de donnees economiques et ecologiques ventions et les conditions economiques, sociales et envi- disponibles, et des lacunes dans le developpement de la ronnementales evidentes dans plusieurs indicateurs. Leur science derriere la construction du modele. En resume, il approche initiale n'aboutissait pas un << optimum global n'est pas conseilie d'utiliser les modeles pour dicter les >>, mais se concentrait plutot sur la creation de moyens directions de la gestion des recifs coralliens, mais plutot avec lesquels les decideurs (ettoute personne avec un sim- il faut les utiliser pour soutenir de telles decisions. ple interet) pourraient explorer les possibilites de gestion. Definir une solution optimale a travers un modele de soutien aux decisions ne necessite pas forcement la Directions Futures de Modeles de Soutien negation de la participation des parties concernees dans aux Deisions la decision gestionnaire, mais ceci n'est pas conseille. La participation des parties concernees et des agences de Un defi important pour l'&tude de systemes complexes gestion ne doit pas etre oubliee. Les recommandations non lineaires, tels que les ecosystemes de recifs coralliens, derivees du modele de solution normative peuvent ne pas est la fourniture d'une decision adequate de la composi- etre adequates ou realisables etant donne le contexte so- tion, relations fonctionnelles, et comportement du systdme cial et institutionnel particulier. En effet, le succAs de en question. Ruitenbeek et Cartier (1999) et Ruitenbeek tout programme de gestion de recifs coralliens sera affecte et coll. (1999a, 1999b) ont note que la recherche doit se par l'environnement social et la procedure meme de prise concentrer plus sur l'analyse des ecosystemes, avec une de decision. Il est important que les parties concernees emphase particuliere sur les liens et relations fonction- participent a autant d'etapes que possible de mise au point nelles. La creation de modeles de soutien de decisions du programme, meme si cette participation est reduite A ecologiques economiques estrendu difficile par un manque un partage d'information. II devient de plus en plus de comprehension du comportement des ecosystemes; evident dans les procedures de gestion environnementale l'incertitude sur les ecosystemes peut empecher une ana- que c'est le processus lui-meme qui aboutit A un pro- lyse economique rationnelle utile. gramme de gestion reussi. Sans une procedure ouverte et Les techniques complexes de modelisation, comme participatoire, des barriAres importantes peuvent surgir la logique de l'incertain, peuvent s'averer plus utiles. quant A une gestion efficace. L'element d'intervention a moindre cout des modeles de La modelisation de soutien aux decisions doit etre soutien aux decisions, tel que resume ici, demontre l'utilite appliquee dans un contexte particulier de politique. Ceci d'incorporer un environnement de modelisation A logique est particuliArement vrai pour les elements d'evaluation, floue quand il s'agit d'examiner le comportement de 1'eco- carle choix d'une des techniques d'evaluation disponibles, systeme d'un recif corallien qui repond A un stress et une comme l'ont remarque Ruitenbeek et Cartier (1999), doit intervention anthropique. Des recherches approfondies etre pousse par des questions de politique particulieres sur l'utilisation d'ensembles flous dans des applications ou par des problemes analytiques qui doivent Ate resolus. similaires sont necessaires (Smith 1994). Neanmoins, il Les questions de politique definissent les donnees et les est possible qu'une combinaison de plusieurs techniques analyses qui sont necessaires. La structure et l'utilisation soit necessaire pour explorer les comportements et inter- des modeles de soutien aux decisions devrait etres actions entre les systemes ecologiques et economiques, flexibles. que ce soit des modeleslineaires deterministes, des Bien que les scenarios aient defini les reconmmanda- modeles de simulation complexes, des modeles de logique tions specifiques quant aux genres d'interventions neces- floue ou des reseaux neuraux. saires et au niveau de sante des recifs coralliens atteints Lier des systemes differents dans un environnement par les etudes de site, il est toujours premature, dans la de modelisation est un defi continuel rencontre par le creation et l'utilisation de ces modeles, de recommander domaine d'Aconomie ecologique, ainsi que d'autres et d'elaborer des programmes de ICZM. Le developpe- domaines de recherche interdisciplinaires. Les domaines ment d'interventions specifiques necessitera vrais- de biologie et d'economie de conservation ont souffert emblablement des raffinements apres une consideration separement d'une incapacite A fournir des liens explora- plus approfondie des conditions sociales et institu- toires adequats entre les activites Aconomiques et la dimi- tionnelles a travers une procedure participatoire. De plus, nution d'espece ou d'ecosysteme. En general, il est Annex C-Resultats des Recherches sur les Modeles de Soutien et Orientations Futures 257 necessaire de fournir une description ou caracterisation ecologiques et economiques de modeles de systemes com- complexe, afin de faciliter la prise de decision dans la plexes, et faciliter la conscience et la comprehension... direction. Des indicateurs, comme les approximations de cela doit etre explore. variables ou simplifications d'une realite complexe, Un dernier point quant a la mise au point et a P'am& remplissent souvent cette fonction. lioration future de modeles de soutien aux decisions eco- Dans les efforts de modelisation present6s ci-dessus, logiques economiques pour ICZM: toute analyse doit l'indicateur principal utilisepourla sante durecifcorallien etre capable d'explorer les variations possibles dans les etait la couverture spatiale (c.-a-d., le pourcentage de resultats et les recommandations qui s'en suivent. Il est substrat total disponible couvert par du corail vivant). Cet imperatif que la modelisation de soutien aux decisions indicateur fournit un << lien >> descriptif simple entre les comprenne une analyse de sensibilite ou un moyen pour activites economiques et les ecosystemes de recifs evaluer le risque ou erreur possible associes a un sc6nario coralliens affectes. De plus, l'indicateur a forme la base particulier. Par exemple, la modelisation d'evaluation de pour les decisions concemant les << meilleures >> interven- la bioprospection montrait que les approximations de tions gestionnaires pour recevoir une rentabilite maximale rendement d' &cosysteme dependait beaucoup des relations de benefice, et concernant le degre d'intervention supposees des especes/surface (Ruitenbeek et Cartier necessaire pour atteindre un resultat economiquement 1999). Des variations relativement petites dans de telles efficace. Une question 6vidente se pose : cet indicateur relations non lineaires qui sont inherents dans un modele de sante de recif corallien est-il adequat, et devrait-on peuvent entrainer des variations importantes dans le inclure d'autres indicateurs dans la modelisation? resultat. Les recommandations de politique optimale Les proprietes d'un bon indicateur utilise dans une doivent considerer ces variations. La precaution est nces- prise de decision et dans l'elaboration d'une politique peut saire jusqu'a ce que la science des modeles de soutien etre decrit comme suit: aux decisions et leur application soit perfectionn6es de • La creation de l'indicateur correspond au but et a maniere a avoir un plus grande confiance aux resultats. I'application selectionnes; Comme demier message avant de conclure, le travail La valeur de base derri*re l'indicateur est explicite de modelisation de soutien aux decisions economiques •.indicateur foumit une simpcologiques sera utile pour l'elaboration de programmes s .indica fo .mittine . si f o ot abstrtn ICZM efficaces dans les tropiques en voie de developpe- simple dcr rdment. Des recherches approfondies et des perfectionne- * La theorie derriere la creation de l'indicateur est assez ments des modeles, ainsi qu'une attention plus grande au solide; processus de prise de decision, doivent etre consideres • La sensibilite de l'indicateur aux changements de para- comme un d6fi n6cessaire, et non comme un obstacle. metre du systeme a ete suffisamment etudiee et definie, T1tant donne de nouvelles preuves indiquant que nous et l'indicateur est assez sensible pour atteindre le but faisons face a une crise mondiale d'appauvrissement des du developpement; et, recifs coralliens, la gestion doit aller de l'avant avec le * L'information fournie par l'indicateur peut etre com- meilleur ensemble d'outils de soutien aux decisions prise et appliqu6e par l'usager. disponibles actuellement. La plupart des indicateurs ne peuvent pas remplir les criteres ci-dessus ; neanmoins, le but de la creation d'indicateurs est toujours de satisfaire autant de criteres que possible etant donne les deficits du niveau de connaissance scientifique disponible et les restrictions stur la recherche. La couverture de recif corallien est un indicateur raisonnable de sante de r6cif corallien avec ses carences, mais des developpements futurs de ces modeles de soutien aux decisions necessiteront un perfectionne- ment ou une modification des indicateurs utilises. Lid6e de creation d'indicateurs d'ecosystemes pour etre utilises dans la prise de decision et dans l'elaboration de politique est encore relativement recente, bien que du progres ait e fait (e.g., Jameson et coll. 1999). Dans quelle mesure l'indicateur peut former le << lien >> entre les elements Annex D Modelos de Apoyo a las Decisiones Ecologico- Economicas para la Gestion Integral de los Arrecifes de Coral en los Tropicos en Vias de Desarrollo-Resultados de Investigaciones y Orientaciones para el Futuro Resumen preparado por Kent Gustavson y Richard M Huber Este capitulo es un resumen de los resultados de una in- desarrollo. Se expone la estrategia de diseminaci6n y se vestigacion realizada durante los uiltimos cinco afios con ofrecen comentarios en cuanto a las aplicaciones poten- el apoyo del Comite de Investigaciones del Banco Mundial ciales de politica y la direcci6n de futuras investigaciones. y de los Fondos Fiduciarios de Holanda, Suecia y Canada, GIZC presta una orientaci6n integral a las actividades administrados por el Banco Mundial. La investigaci6n de dos o mas sectores en la planificaci6n, desarrollo, e fue llevada a cabo bajo la direcci6n de Richard M Huber, implementacion de proyectos. De una manera mas for- lider del equipo (Banco Mundial), con la contribuci6n de mal, es ". . .la planeaci6n y la gesti6n integral de recursos varios investigadores, como los mencionados a lo largo y ambientes costeros en una forma que esta basada en las de este capitulo. Las principales contribuciones provin- interconexiones fisicas, socioecon6micas y politicas den- ieron de (en orden alfabetico) RolfBak (Instituto Holand6s tro y entre los sistemas dinamicos de las zonas costeras..." de Investigaciones Marinas), Steve Dollar (Universidad (Sorensen 1997). Similarmente, "la GIZC es un proceso de Hawaii), Kent Gustavson (Gustavson Ecological Re- de gobiemo y consiste de un marco legal e institucional source Consulting), Erik Meesters (Instituto Holandes de necesario para asegurar que los planes de desarrollo y de Investigaciones Marinas), Frank Rijsberman (Resources gesti6n para las zonas costeras sean integrados con metas Analysis), Jack Ruitenbeek (HJ Ruitenbeek Resources ambientales y sociales, y sean elaborados con la partic- Consulting), y Susie Westmacott (Resources Analysis). ipaci6n de aquellos afectados. El prop6sito de la GIZC es maximizar los beneficios proporcionados por la zona Los ecosistemas de arrecifes de coral a nivel mundial estan costera y minimizar los conflictos y efectos dafiinos entre enfrentando una severa disminuci6n, estando amenazados las diversas actividades, sobre los recursos naturales y el por presiones antr6picas localizadas asi como tambien por medio ambiente" (World Bank 1996, p. 2). Han comen- causa de fen6menos regionales y globales naturales como zado a surgir lineamientos y procedimientos para el des- el calentamiento global (Bryant etal. 1998; Hodgson 1999; arrollo de la GIZC (e.g., Bower et al. 1994; Chua 1993; Hoegh-Guldberg 1999; Jameson et al. 1995; Wilkinson Clark 1995; Pemettay Elder 1993; Sorensen 1997; World 1998). Todavia puede haber alguna causa para ser opti- Bank 1993a, 1996). mista dada la remota ubicaci6n geografica de muchos Un elemento esencial de la GIZC es la integraci6n- arrecifes de coral, la gesti6n efectiva de algunos, y la particularmente, la integraci6n horizontal a lo largo de capacidad potencial de recuperaci6n de estos ecosistemas sectores economicos y agencias de gesti6n en la planea- (Wilkinson 1998), aunque ya es claro que la gesti6n inte- ci6n e implementaci6n (e.g., Clark 1995; Sorensen 1997). gral efectiva de las zonas costeras (GIZC) es necesaria Las actividades costeras deben ser consideradas en con- para ayudar a prevenir su agotamiento y deterioro poste- junto dada su interdependencia e impactos acumulados rior. Este capitulo es un resumen de los resultados ob- no aditivos (impactos independientes) esperados. Pero tenidos durante la investigaci6n con relaci6n a modelos ,de que manera los muiltiples sectores econ6micos o acti- para apoyar la toma de decisiones para la gesti6n de los vidades humanas van a ser considerados conjuntamente? arrecifes de coral en las zonas tropicales en vias de ,De que manera la preocupaci6n para el mantenimiento 260 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling de los ecosistemas costeros-los cuales apoyan directa o dirigidos para informar procesos de toma de decisiones y indirectamente las actividades econ6micas-va a ser disenio de politicas-se deberia evitar el uso de modelos incorporada en la toma de decisiones? iCudl deberia ser altamente experimentales como herramientas de apoyo el marco para la toma de decisiones con el fin de deter- en la toma de decisiones. La teoria en la cual se basan los minar que actividades deberian ser permitidas dentro de modelos de apoyo a la toma de decisiones deberia ser la zona costera?, ZC6mo deberian esas actividades ser relativamente robusta. Por ejemplo, respecto al uso de desarrolladas y operadas? ,Qu& nivel de actividad deberia modelos ecol6gicos previstos para su uso en toma de serpermitido? jSobre que base los conflictos entre difer- decisiones, Friedland (1977) observa que "El objetivo entes usuarios de recursos costeros deberian ser resueltos? basico no es el descubrimiento de verdades previamente Dar respuesta a tales preguntas necesariamente implica desconocidas sino la recolecci6n e integraci6n del con- la consideraci6n conjunta de parametros de sistemas ocimiento existente y su presentaci6n en una forma uItil multiples, criterios multiples, y distintos valores. en el proceso de disefno de politicas." Esto tiene ramifi- Los modelos para apoyar la toma de decisiones eco- caciones directas sobre cual tipo de modelo es el mas 16gico-econ6micas pueden jugar un papel fundamental. apropiado. Finalnente, los modelos de apoyo en el pro- La familia de modelos ecol6gico-econ6micos incluye ceso de toma de decisiones deberian ser susceptibles a la aquellos que reconocen la validez de alcanzar una soluci6n modificaci6n y revisi6n de sus componentes de infor- econ6micamente eficiente para la gesti6n, aunque simul- maci6n; de las relaciones especificadas dentro del modelo; tanea y explicitamente considera las limitaciones necesar- y de las alternativas de desarrollo o escenarios consider- iamente impuestas sobre la escala y el tipo de actividades ados por el modelo. Nuevamente, es imperativo mantener econ6micas debido a las caracteristicas y a la capacidad en mente las necesidades de los usuarios. Un modelo del ambiente natural. Los modelos de apoyo a las deci- basado en informaci6n que ya no es valida para una zona siones ecol6gico-econ6micas para la GIZC tambi&n particular, cuyas relaciones ecol6gicas y econ6micas sub- deberian permitir acomodar informaci6n relacionada con yacentes ya no son mas precisas, o que no es lo suficiente- cl contexto socio-cultural en el que se efectuia la gesti6n, mente flexible para soportar modificaciones o alteraciones cl cual tiene un papel esencial que jugar en el desarrollo de los escenarios o altemativas de desarrollo especificados, de politicas. sera de poco uso en el largo plazo. jCudles son las caracteristicas de un modelo util de apoyo al proceso de toma de decisiones? Primeramente, unmodelouitildeapoyoalatomadedecisionesdebepoder Resultados de los Proyectos con Modelos responder preguntas especificas y relevantes asociadas con el disefio de politica. Para ayudar en el disefio y creaci6n En 1995, con fondos del Comite de Investigaciones del de tal modelo, uno debe poder avanzar en su construcci6n Banco Mundial, se inici6 el trabajo en dos areas de in- a partir del conjunto existente de investigaciones rele- vestigaci6n con relaci6n a los arrecifes de coral en zonas vantes en el area del la formulaci6n e implementaci6n de tropicales en vias de desarrollo: (i) uso de modelos costo- politicas. Como ha sefialado Ruitenbeek et al. (1999a, efectivos para intervenir en la gesti6n (i.e. la "oferta" de 1999b), la falta de informaci6n respecto a la ecologia de la biodiversidad como activo econ6mico); y (ii) valora- los arrecifes de coral (i.e., nexos funcionales y relaciones) ci6n de sistemas marinos (i.e., la "demanda" por bio- y las caracteristicas de las economias que los afectan diversidad). Esencialmente, el uso de modelos costo- actualmente dificultan el desarrollo de modelos efectivos efectivos busc6 identificar la curva de costos para aquellas de apoyo en toma de decisiones ecol6gico-econ6micas. intervenciones dirigidas a mejorar las condiciones de los Gran parte de la informaci6n cientifica existente no es arrecifes de coral; en donde los efectos de las diferentes directamente "relevante para el disefio de politica" y, en intervenciones de politica y actividades econ6micas estan este contexto, es de poca ayuda a los tomadores de vinculados a la salud general del arrecife de coral y a los decisiones; o directamente en la creaci6n de un modelo costos asociados con efectuar las mejoras (Brown et al. de apoyo a la toma de decisiones. Segundo, un modelo 1996; Huber y Jameson 1998; Huber et al. 1994, 1996; debe ser capaz de ser entendido y utilizado directamente Meesters 1995; Meesters y Westmacott 1996; Meesters por un grupo meta de clientes. Los insumos deben ser et al. 1995, 1996, 1998; Ridgley y Dollar 1996; Ridgley relativamente faciles a proveer, las pruebas faciles de et al. 1995; Rijsberman 1995; Rijsberman y Westmacott conducir, y los resultados faciles de interpretar. Tercero, 1996; Rijsberman et al. 1995a; Ruitenbeek et al. 1999a, se deberia distinguir entre el uso de modelos previstos 1999b; Westmacott 1996; Westmacotty Rijsberman 1997; mayormente para investigaciones cientificas y aquellos Westmacott et al. 1995). El modelo de valoraci6n del Annex D-Modelos de Apoyo a las Decisiones Ecol6gico-Econ6micas para la Gesti6n Integral 261 sistema marino intento identificar los beneficios que tendencia y, en algun caso, conducir a la recuperaci6n del pueden ser obtenidos a partir de mejorar o sostener las arrecife por encima de su actual nivel de salud. Las inter- condiciones del arrecife de coral. venciones recomendadas incluyen combinaciones de tra- El objetivo amplio de las investigaci6n fue ayudar a tamientos de desagiies, disposici6n apropiada de desechos los disefiadores de politica en el manejo y protecci6n de s6lidos, y reducciones en la contaminaci6n de las refinerias. los arrecifes de coral (Huber y Ruitenbeek 1997; Huber Medidas alternativas para el mantenimiento de las playas et al. 1994). El establecimiento de una metodologia costo- y la reducci6n de desechos generados por la industria beneficio apropiada, a ser usada en los sistemas de manufacturera y el transporte maritimo no fueron encon- arrecifes de coral en los tr6picos en desarrollo y en tradas como medidas efectivas. Sin embargo, Rijsberman sistemas marinos en general, ayudara a la identificaci6n yWestmacott (1996) tambien reconocen que los resultados de intervenciones institucionales y de politica mas con- de los modelos pueden ser especificos a la escala espacial venientes; y asi ayudara a lograr usos econ6micamente examinada y que estas u1timas intervenciones ciertamente eficientes de los arrecifes de coral, y que a la vez toman pueden ser costo-efectivas y apropiadas en un contexto en cuenta los impactos sobre y el papel del ecosistema local mas reducido. que sustenta la vida en los arrecifes de coral. Este tipo de Rijsberman yWestmacott (1996) destacan que lautili- "paquete" basado en el analisis costo-beneficio (ACB) dad del modelo solamente puede ser demostrada mediante esta representado por la integraci6n de los modelos de una aplicaci6n que intimamente involucre a los grupos costo-efectividad y de valoraci6n (Ruitenbeek y Cartier de interes en la construccion del escenario y en el proceso 1999). Se escogieron tres lugares para estudios de caso de toma de decisiones. Coral-Curacao le permite a uno en donde probar las metodologias: (i) Curacao, en las ordenar y priorizar las medidas y explorar la formulaci6n Antillas Holandesas; (ii)laRepuiblica de las Islas Maldivas; de diferentes combinaciones para obtener una meta y, (iii) la Bahia de Montego en Jamaica. especifica en terminos de la extensi6n y diversidad del arrecife. Por ejemplo, para lograr una meta promedio del Coral- Cura_ao 14% con respecto a la cubierta de coral en el arrecife y del 50% con respecto a la diversidad (indexado de acuerdo Rijsberman y Westmacott (1996; tambien ver Meeseters al modelo), se requiere una inversi6n inicial de 310 1995; Meesters et al. 1996a; Rijsberman et al. 1995a; millonesNAF, conuncosto anualde operaci6nyde man- Westmacott et al. 1995) desarrollaron un modelo de tenimiento de 6 millones NAF (Rijsberman y Westmacott analisis costo-efectividad para la gesti6n y protecci6n del 1996). arrecife de coral en la costa sur de Curacao. El modelo de apoyo en la toma de decisiones fue disefiado para Coral-Maldivas facilitar la comunicaci6n entre los grupos de inter6s involucrados con respecto a las orientaciones del Westmacott y Rijsberman (1996; tambien ver Brown et desarrollo y las estrategias de gesti6n ambiental; y el al. 1996;MeestersyWestmacott 1996;Rijsberman 1995; analisis de los impactos sobre la salud del arrecife Rijsberman y Westmacott 1996; Westmacott 1996; producidos por los desarrollos planificados-a traves de Westmacott y Rijsberman 1997) desarrollaron unmodelo la descarga de aguas residuales y sedimentos-de tal de analisis costo-efectividad para la gesti6n y protecci6n manera que se integrase la planificaci6n del uso del suelo, del arrecife de coral en el North y South Male en la el turismo y la conservaci6n; y, el analisis costo- Repuiblica de las Maldivas. Como fue un modelo desar- efectividad de las intervenciones en la gesti6n disefiadas rollado paralelamente con Coral-Curacao, el objetivo fue para mantener la salud del arrecife de coral. El modelo investigar si un modelo adaptado para las Maldivas (Coral- utiliza una estructura computarizada basada en la Maldivas) proporcionaria una herramienta dtil para la toma interacci6n. de decisiones. Westmacott y Rij sberman (1997) describen Los resultados de los tres escenarios modelados (un el modelo y los resultados del analisis inicial. escenario de desarrollo representativo del status quo y Como con el modelo Coral-Curacao, el modelo Coral- dos escenarios de crecimiento altemativos) indican que Maldivas fue disefiado para que las autoridades encargadas Curacao es muy probable que experimente disminuciones pudiesen detetminar el costo-efectividad relativo de dif- significativas en la salud del arrecife de coral y abundancia erentes intervenciones de gesti6n ambiental para variadas durante los pr6ximos 10 afios. Sin embargo, el modelo opciones de desarrollo econ6mico en terminos de las tambi6n indica que las intervenciones que involucran mejorias en la salud del arrecife de coral que son obtenidas estrategias de protecci6n ambiental pueden detener esta (i.e., utilizando indices de la cubierta del arrecife de coral 262 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling y de la rugosidad como medidas aproximadas). Ademas, de la renta capturada orientados a la ganancia (i.e., con- los impactos de los escenarios pueden ser vistos en ter- tribuciones de sistemas marinos a traves de la distribu- minos de indicadores econ6micos, sociales, y ambientales ci6n de valores del uso tales como la renta capturada, elegidos por el usuario del modelo desde el inicio del ganancias o valor agregado; Huber y Ruitenbeek 1997; analisis. Las prioridades de politica y las altemativas de Ruitenbeek y Cartier 1999). En la ultima categoria, se gesti6n viables fueron identificadas mediante discusiones analiz6 la contribuci6n potencial de la biodiversidad de con agencias gubernamentales. Dada la naturaleza de los los arrecifes de coral a traves del desarrollo de una inicia- impactos en los arrecifes de coral en la Repuiblica de las tiva de bioprospecci6n. Maldivas, las intervenciones de gesti6n se enfocan en minimizar el dafio fisico (Westmacott y Rij sberman 1997). Contribuciones de las Funciones de Produccion - Westmacott y Rijsberman (1997) ilustran el uso del Parque Marino de la Bahia de Montego modelo mediante la presentaci6n de casos. Los valores locales de uso directo fueron estimados por Westmacott y Rijsberman (1997) sefialan que hay un Gustavson (1998) para dos categorias generales de uso- gran udmero de indicadores que pueden ser utilizados para pesca cerca de la costa y turismo. Los valores de uso describir el potencial de exito o fracaso de una estrategia indirecto asociados con la protecci6n costera tambien de gesti6n de la zona costera-y, aunque el modelo es fueron estimados. Estos usos locales de las aguas del algo flexible, el grupo de indicadores de gesti6n en zonas Parque Marino de la Bahia de Montego fueron identifi- costeras que puede ser seleccionado y examinado por el cados como los mas significativos durante la aplicaci6n usuario es limitado. Ademas, en tanto las intervenciones final del estudio en el sitio, asi como los mas prioritarios y medidas costo-efectivas se relacionan solamente con al nivel del disefio de politica. Los valores reportados por los cambios en la salud del arrecife de coral, ellas pueden Gustavson (1998) representan la magnitud de las contri- ignorar otras estrategias criticas para el exito de un buciones en la producci6n derivada del arrecife, en riesgo programa particular para la gesti6n integral de la zona de perderse si los esfuerzos de conservaci6n prueban ser costera (GIZC) (e.g., aspectos de salud publica). Se inadecuados. sugiere que los resultados de los escenarios en los modelos Los servicios turisticos en la Bahia de Montego para apoyar la toma de decisiones, en la formulaci6n de incluyen alojamiento, comida, bebida, entretenimiento planes de desarrollo o de gesti6n, sean ubicados dentro (incluyendo deportes y atracciones acuaticas), transporte del contexto de metas yrequerimientos sociales. Asi como y tiendas, y otros servicios diversos. Estimaciones del con Coral-Curacao, el modelo puede no reflejar adecua- valor presente neto (VPN) asociadas con el turismo se damente las condiciones locales a una escala espacial ubican en un rango que va desde US$ 210 millones menor a la incorporada en los componentes del modelo. (usando una tasa de descuento del 15%) hasta US$ 630 millones (usando una tasa de descuento del 5%) en 1996. La Valoraci6n de los Beneficios de los Las estimaciones del VPN en 1998 asociadas con la pesca Arrecifes de Coral se calculan entre -US$ 1.66 millones y US$ 7.49 millones (d6lares constantes de 1996; utilizando estimados in- En el proceso para Ilegar a una medida del valor econ6- feriores y superiores, respectivamente, de los valores netos mico total (VET), los estudios de valoraci6n econ6mica anuales y a una tasa de descuento del 5%; los estimados de sistemas naturales mayormente distinguen los valores hechos a tasas de descuento del 10% y 15% caen dentro de uso de los valores que no implican un uso, y valores de de este rango). Si es que la funci6n de protecci6n desem- uso directo de valores de uso indirecto. Estas distinciones pefiada por los arrecifes de coral fuera comprometida, mayormente reflejan el metodo de estimaci6n. Durante sobre la base de que aproximadamente 250 acres son la especificaci6n del diseno de la valoraci6n de arrecifes vulnerables, luego el VPN del volumen total de tierra en de coral para el Parque Marino de la Bahia de Montego, riesgo de erosi6n es estimado en US$ 65 millones (en fue definitivamente mas uitil distinguir entre tres clasi- d6lares constantes de 1996). La mediana del VPN ficaciones para la valoraci6n de la biodiversidad marina: tomando en cuenta todos los valores de los usos locales (i) m6todos de valoraci6n de la producci6n "orientados a para el Parque Marino de la Bahia de Montego fue la oferta" (i.e., contribuciones de los sistemas marinos a estimada en US$ 381 millones. Asumiendo una area to- la utilidad de un individuo o la sociedad); (ii) metodos de tal de arrecifes de 42.65 hectareas como un caso de valoraci6n de la utilidad "orientados a la "demanda" (i.e., referencia, esto se traduce en US$ 8.93 millones/hectarea contribuciones de sistemas marinos a la utilidad de un o US$ 0.893 millones de ha-' afio- sobre una base individuo o la sociedad); y, (iii) metodos de valoraci6n anualizada (asumiendo una tasa de descuento del 10%). Annex D-Modelos de Apoyo a las Decisiones Ecol6gico-Econ6micas para la Gesti6n Integral 263 Contribuciones a la Utilidad - (DAP). En el promedio, la DAP fue estimada en US$ Parque Marino de la Bahia de Montego y la 2.08 por persona en Curaeao y US$ 3.24 por persona en Costa Sur de Cura,ao Jamaica (Spash et al. 1998). La diferencia fue explicada Spash et al. (1998) utiliz6 el metodo de valoraci6n por la combinaci6n de turistas y residentes locales, con contingente (MVC) para evaluar los valores de la utilidad los jamaiquinos dispuestos a pagar casi el doble que sus asociados con la biodiversidad de los arrecifes de coral contrapartes en Curacao. Utilizando perfiles tipicos de en la Bahia de Montego, en Jamaica, y a lo largo de la visitantes y la poblaci6n local y a una tasa de descuento costa sur de Curacao. El estudio es particularmente del 10%, se calcula una DAP estimada en aproxi- notable por haber examinado los valores de la utilidad madamente US$ 4.5 millones en Curacao y US$ 20 asociados con un recurso ambiental marino (i.e., la calidad millones en la Bahia de Montego, Jamaica (Spash et al. del arrecife de coral), lo cual habia sido negado por 1998). investigaciones previas. Adicionalmente, la investiga- ci6n logr6 avances para abordar de manera explicita Contribuciones Potenciales de la fuentes de sesgo debido a las preferencias lexicograficas Bioprospecei6n - Parque Marino de la que surgen cuando la persona entrevistada no desea Bahia de Montego aceptar ningun "trade-off" por la perdida de un bien o El modelo para la bioprospeeci6n en la Bahia de Montego servicio (i.e., al rechazar un "trade-off", la persona se enfoc6 en los rendimientos netos sociales promedios, entrevistada no se comporta de acuerdo a lo sefialado por basandose en informaci6n local sobre costos y en valores la teoria econ6mica). Para precios iniciales iguales a de beneficios, y en tasas de descuento exitosas - basadas cero, se efectuaron distinciones entre aquellos que carecen en infonnaci6n de los propietarios - para los productos de ingresos, aquellos que consideran las mejorias como marinos en el Caribe. (Ruitenbeek y Cartier 1999). Los de menor importancia, aquellos que prefieren gastar su supuestos del modelo respecto a los parametros incluyeron dinero en otros bienes o servicios, o aquellos que la especificaci6n de la relaci6n entre especies y area y la protestaron por tener que ejercer tal elecci6n. Entre relaci6n de participaci6n institucional de los ingresos aquellos que protestaron con los precios iniciales, fiscales (i.e., un reparto de las ganancias netas contingentes proporcionando asi una fuente de sesgo, estuvieron yunatarifafijaparamuestreo). Elanalisisdesensibilidad aquellos "polizones" (free riders), aquellos que sienten explor6 los efectos que las variaciones en los parametros que el pago no es una soluci6n adecuada, aquellos que del modelo tenian sobre el estimado del valor, incluyendo han perdido la fe en la instituci6n propuesta, o aquellos variaciones en el area total del sustrato disponible en el que rechazan el mecanismo de pago. La encuesta tambien arrecife con una cobertura biol6gicamente viva y la explor6 el grado de las opiniones correctamente especificaci6n de la relaci6n entre especies y area como sustentadas en consideraciones eticas que serian codeterminantes del numero esperado de muestras compatibles con las preferencias lexicograficas. El MVC disponibles para pruebas. Otros escenarios del modelo fue disefiado para facilitar la comparaci6n con los incluyeron una tarifa fija en el muestreo, un enfoque resultados de los estudios de valoraci6n de los usos lo- combinado con participaci6n de ingresos fiscales, costos cales y de la bioprospecci6n en la Bahia de Montego. El altos de investigaci6n y desarrollo, tasas muy bajas, y un MVC tambien fue disefiado para permitir la separaci6n programa de muestreo mas corto. Una funci6n de de los valores de uso directo de los indirectos y de los beneficios marginales fue derivada la cual relacion6 el valores no asociados con uso alguno (non-use values). valor o el "precio" de la biodiversidad marina con la Se les pidi6 a los participantes en la encuesta una abundancia del arrecife de coral. contribuci6n para un fondo fiduciario que podria ser Para un "caso base" se estim6 un valor de US$ 70 administrado por un parque marino para incrementar la millones para los arrecifes del Parque Marino de la Bahia biodiversidad dentro de las fronteras del parque. El pago de Montego, de los cuales aproximadamente US$ 7 tendria que ser donado anualmente por un periodo de millones (i.e., 10%) realistamente podrian ser captados cinco afios y lograria un crecimiento del 25% en la por Jamaica bajo arreglos tipicos de regalias o rentas cobertura del arrecife de coral. El analisis de la curva de (Ruiteenbeek y Cartier 1999). El valor marginal del precios (i.e. un analisis "tobit" en combinaci6n con una arrecife para bioprospecci6n se estim6 en US$ 530,000/ estimaci6n de maxima probabilidad) proporcion6 ha o US$ 225,000 por el cambio porcentual en la abun- informaci6n adicional respecto a las variables que dancia del arrecife de coral (correspondiente a un precio detenninan las variaciones en la "disposici6n a pagar" de planificaci6n local jamaiquino de US$ 22,500 por el (DAP) y refin6 los estimados de la "disposici6n a pagar" cambio porcentual en la abundancia del arrecife de coral). 264 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling La Identificaci6n de Intervenciones de Menor beneficios de los costos (por lo general cuando los Costo - Parque Marino de la Bahia de Montego beneficios no pueden ser definidos). Cuando se trata de sistemas altamente complejos tales como los arrecifes de De manera muy similar a los modelos Coral-Curacao y coral, las sinergias, retroalimentaciones y otras inter- Coral-Maldivas, Ruiteenbeek et al. (1999a; tambien ver dependencias entre intervenciones individuales y el nivel Ridgley y Dollar 1996; Ridgley et al. 1995; Ruitenbeek resultante de salud del arrecife de coral pueden invalidar et al. 1999b) aplic6 una metodologia l6gica probabilistica las recomendaciones que provienen de intervenciones de para identificar las intervenciones de menor costo que con- politica individualmente evaluadas, las cuales se asume ducirian a un incremento en la abundancia del arrecife de es posible aplicarlas en una forma secuencial, por etapas. coral dentro del Parque Marino de la Bahia de Montego. Por ejemplo, se encontr6 que la reforestacion formaba Los procedimientos l6gicos probabilisticos son utilizados parte del conjunto de intervenciones 6ptimas para metas dentro de un modelo ecol6gico de impacto en el arrecife consistentes con mejoras del arrecife de coral de 14% y para generar una compleja configuraci6n dosis-respuesta 20%, pero no formaba parte del conjunto de intervenciones que modela la relaci6n entre la abundancia del arrecife de 6ptimas para mejoras del 15% o 16% (Ruitenbeek et al. coral y varios insumos dentro del contexto de un medio 1999). Como han sefialado Ruitenbeek et al. (1999), esto marino abi6tico marino. Esto esta vinculado a un modelo significa que las metas fijadas para la salud del arrecife econ6mico no lineal que describe las actividades econ- de coral, en referencia al grado de los beneficios derivados, 6micas actuales y futuras dentro de ocho sectores, las deben ser establecidas antes de que se persigan las intervenciones tecnicas y de politica, y las cargas de con- intervenciones de politica. taminantes en la Bahia de Montego. La optimizaci6n pro- porciona pistas acerca de los medios mas costo-efectivos Integrando los Resultados Obtenidos para la para la protecci6n de los arrecifes de coral bajo diferentes Bahia de Montego Hacia un Nivel metas de calidad del arrecife. *cte de Intervenc* - En la Bahia de Montego, Jamaica, se puede lograr hasta fii un incremento del 20% en la abundancia de coral mediante Una sintesis de los diferentes estudios de valoraci6n de el uso de medidas apropiadas de politica con un costo en los arrecifes de coral para el Parque Marino de la Bahia valor presente de US$ 153 millones para un periodo de de Montego nos permite Ilegar a una funci6n de beneficios 25 afios (Ruitenbeek et al. 1 999a). Las medidas de politica (o precios) marginales netos (Ruitenbeek y Cartier 1999). especificas consideradas incluyen la instalaci6n de una Para poder Ilegar a una funci6n de beneficios marginales, trampa de sedimentos en el rio Montego, el sembrio de relacionando el precio con cambios en la abundancia del arboles en las cuencas altas, la instalaci6n de un sistema arrecife de coral, supuestos adicionales fueron requeridos de ventilaci6n de desechos, la instalaci6n de una planta respecto a la relaci6n entre las categorias de valores y la de tratamiento centralizada de gran escala, la extensi6n abundancia o calidad del arrecife de coral. Especifica- agricola para proporcionar tecnologias que reducen des- mente, se asume una relaci6n lineal entre la calidad del perdicios, la instalaci6n de un emisor submarino y una arrecife y los valores de uso local y los valores utilitarios estaci6n de bombeo, mejoras en la recolecci6n de desechos no asociados con el uso. Probablemente este no es el caso, s6lidos domesticos, y la implementaci6n de un impuesto pero asumir una relaci6n menos simplificada no puede a los hoteles. Se encontr6 que algunas intervenciones eran ser justificado dado nuestro actual conocimiento. Solo relativamente costo-efectivas. Por ejemplo, la recolec- los resultados del modelo de valoraci6n de la biopros- ci6n de desechos s6lidos dom6sticos, la instalaci6n de un pecci6n (Ruitenbeek y Cartier 1999) permitieron la espe- emisor, y el uso de una trampa de sedimento en el Rio cificaci6n de una forma funcional diferente. Como han Montego impondrian un costo en valor presente de US$ sefialado Ruitenbeek y Cartier (1999), los valores mar- 12 millones y resultaria en una mejoria en la cobertura del ginales netos totales probablemente seran sobrestimados arrecife de coral de mas del 10% (Ruitenbeek et al. 1999). en algunas instancias y subestimados en otras. Una demostraci6n clave de la investigaci6n fue que El beneficio total atribuido a los arrecifes de coral del las metodologias convencionales para medir el costo- Parque Nacional de la Bahia de Montego ha sido esti- efectividad pueden resultar en soluciones sub6ptimas de mado en US$ 470 millones, cada cambio en 1% en la politica cuando son aplicadas a sistemas complejos. Esto abundancia es probable que genere un beneficio marginal se debe el analisis costo-efectividad tiende a asumir que de US$ 10 millones o, altemativamente, el precio mar- la separaci6n e independencia de intervenciones indi- ginal del arrecife de coral es de US$ 23 millones/ha viduales y la posibilidad de tratar separadamente los (Ruitenbeek y Cartier 1999). La mayor parte de este Annex D-Modelos de Apoyo a las Decisiones Ecologico-Econ6micas para la Gesti6n Integral 265 valor se atribuye al turismo. La protecci6n costera y los la utilidad humana (asi como tambien los beneficios beneficios utilitarios no asociados con el uso tambien potenciales por regalias o rentas obtenidos por el desar- contribuyen, pero en una proporci6n mucho menor. Las rollo de iniciativas de bioprospecci6n). Tales beneficios pesquerias existentes y el desarrollo potencial de un monetarios reflejaran, en teoria, el conjunto local de programa de bioprospecci6n tienen un efecto minimo en valores. Sin embargo, se pierde mucho cuando se reduce los valores marginales (Ruitenbeek y Cartier 1999). la informaci6n social, cultural y econ6mica a un valor Utilizando la funci6n de costos marginales presen- metrico singular. Esto fue demostrado mediante el desar- tada en el estudio de intervenciones de menor costo para rollo y aplicaci6n de la metodologia de evaluaci6n socio- el Parque Marino de la Bahia de Montego (Ruitenbeek et econ6mica rapida para proporcionar un entendimiento de al. 1 999a), conjuntamente con los estimados de benefi- los diferentes grupos de usuarios de los arrecifes de coral cios marginales, permite llegar a una optimizaci6n global. en el lugar del estudio de caso de la Bahia de Montego De acuerdo a lo reportado por Ruitenbeeky Cartier(l999), (Bunce y Gustavson 1998a; Bunce et al. 1999). Este tipo se sugiere unamejora 6ptima de la abundancia del arrecife de informaci6n facilitara una mejor adaptaci6n de las de coral del 13% (i.e., de aproximadamente 29% de cober- estrategias de gesti6n a los patrones de uso de los grupos tura biol6gica estimado a partir de las condiciones de equi- de usuarios, asi como a sus prioridades de gesti6n y a sus librio del modelo-vease Ruitenbeek et al. 1999a -a recursos disponibles. En esencia, la informaci6n con aproximadamente 42% de cobertura biol6gica), requir- "enfoque humano" ayuda a identificar un resultado econ- iendo gastos netos de US$ 27 millones. Las interven- 6micamente eficiente que tambien es social y cultural- ciones requeridas involucrarian la instalaci6n de una mente viable. Esta informaci6n ha demostrado su utilidad trampa de sedimentos, la ventilaci6n de desechos, la en el desarrollo de politicas y programas efectivas para el instalaci6n de un emisor para desagiues, la implementaci6n Parque Marino de la Bahia de Montego (Bunce et al. 1999; de un sistema mejora o de recolecci6n de desechos s6lidos vease tambi6n Huber y Jameson 1998c). domesticos, y la implementaci6n de incentivos econ6- micos para mejorar la gesti6n de desechos por parte de la Contexto y Recomendaciones de Politica industria hotelera. El analisis de sensibilidad sugiere que esta optimizaci6n es bastante robusta a cambios en los Estudio de Caso - La Captura de Rentas Generadas estimados de los beneficios econ6micos netos-los ben- por el Uso de los Arrecifes de Coral en la eficios necesitarian ser aumentados en US$ 275 millones Bahia de Montego o disminuidos en US$ 300 millones para que la meta De gran interes para las autoridades responsables de la propuesta respecto a mejora en la calidad del arrecife de gesti6n del Parque Marino en la Bahia de Montego, asi coral cambie en mas del 2% (Ruitenbeek y Cartier 1999). como tambien para los administradores de cualquier sistema marino costero, es poder captar al menos una El Contexto Humano del Uso del Arrecife de Coral proporci6n de la renta generada por los usos directos con el fin de poder financiar la gesti6n necesaria del recurso, Ademas de la aplicaci6n del analisis costo-efectividad, la incluyendo posibles mejoras al mismo. En otras palabras, valoraci6n de recursos o el analisis costo-beneficio (ACB), hay costos sociales asociados con la conservaci6n y la es clave que los tomadores de decisiones consideren de gesti6n del recurso que deberian ser pagados por los manera integral y sistematica el contexto social, cultural y usuarios. econ6mico asociado con el desarrollo politicas y el cambio Como un componente del estudio de valoraci6n de ecol6gico. Dicho contexto o informaci6n con "enfoque los usos locales (Gustavson 1998), los cobros efectuados humano" tradicionalmente no forma parte de tales analisis, actualmente por el gobiemo, los cuales pueden capturar en los cuales los indicadores o medidas monetarias una proporci6n de la renta, fueron explotados. Actual- cuantitativas frecuentemente han sido aplicados dentro mente, no es parte de la politica del Parque Marino de la de un ambiente caracterizado por la "evaluaci6n auto- Bahia de Montego cobrar tarifas (un mecanismo explicit- matica" de la toma de decisiones, limitando la posterior amente reconocido para capturar la renta) a sus usuarios, interpretaci6n de los niveles 6ptimos o apropiados y los aunque se esta en las etapas iniciales del comienzo de tal tipos de intervenciones y politicas necesarias. programa. Otros cobros del gobierno, que estan especi- Las metodologias de valoraci6n econ6mica aplicadas ficamente vinculados ya sean a las actividades relacion- en estos proyectos fueron disefiadas para enumerar los adas con el turismo o con las pesquerias, pueden capturar beneficios totales recibidos de los arrecifes de coral, a una proporci6n del excedente del productor o del consum- traves de contribuciones de la funci6n de producci6n y de idor, pero no son explicitas ni necesariamente disefiados 266 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling con esa finalidad. Estos incluyen los derechos de licencias de las instituciones y politicas jamaiquinas conduce a las para los negocios, licencias para pesca, derechos uso de siguientes recomendaciones (Putterman 1998): playa, e impuestos turisticos a salida de los visitantes. * En el disefio de un conjunto de opciones de politica En principio, los derechos por licencias son recolec- sobre recursos naturales, se deben incorporar las tados para pagar los costos incurridos por el gobiemno en obligaciones de la Convenci6n sobre Diversidad la administraci6n y regulaci6n de un negocio o actividad. Biol6gica y de la Convenci6n de las Naciones Unidas No hubo informaci6n disponible sobre los costos reales sobre la Ley del Mar, asi como tambien se le debe tomar asociados con la regulaci6n de las actividades llevadas a en cuenta el efecto que el disefio de politicas tendra en cabo en los arrecifes de coral, aunque es muy posible que las actividades del sector privado; en todos estos casos estos costos no sean recuperados a *Regular el acceso a los recursos geneticos desde un partir de los programas de tarifas existentes. Se encontr6 principio por medio de penmisos y contratos para defmir que los derechos de uso de playa son actualmente niinimos los derechos a estos recursos antes de que sus muestras sean recolectadas o exportadas; y, aunque varian de acuerdo con el tipo de uso, no estan * Establecer derechos (novedosos) sui generis sobre la vinculados a los diferentes niveles del excedente del propiedad tangible y el conocimiento tradicional para productor. Ninguno de estos fondos esta explicitamente asi definir quien tiene derecho de participar y benefi- orientados a pagar los costos asociados con la gesti6n del ciarse en la negociaci6n de contratos que implican la Parque Marino de la Bahia de Montego. Ninguna otra transferencia de recursos geneticos o del conocimiento tarifa o cargo del gobiemo o agencia responsable de la tradicional; gesti6n esta especificamente ligada ya sea a actividades . Desarrollar procedimientos de consentimiento previa- relacionadas al turismo o la pesca en el area. Impuestos mente informados con el fin de dar a los propietarios a las ganancias corporativas, o impuestos al ingreso per- legales de los derechos a los recursos geneticos y al sonal en el caso de los pescadores o de las ganancias indi- conocimiento tradicional un medio de controlar el uso vidualmente distribuidas en los negocios relacionados al de estos recursos; y, turismo-tambien pueden captar una porci6n de la renta. - Crear una formula nacional para el reparto de beneficios Sin embargo, los impuestos son pagados al organismo con la finalidad de convertir una proporci6n del ingreso gubernamental recaudador de impuestos, y de esa manera monetario derivado del desarrollo de nuevos productos no estan disponibles para ser utilizados en la gesti6n del en bienes puiblicos; para asegurar un reparto justo y -parquc marino. El interes actual del Parque Marino en la equitativo de los beneficios por la utilizaci6n de los parqe mano.El iter6 acual el Prqu Marno e la recursos gen&ticos. Bahia Montego para implementar derechos de uso deberia Los genes. ser apoyado. Los valores presentes netos potenciales por la bio- prospecci6n son pequefios en comparaci6n a los valores Estudio de Caso - Instituciones y Recomendaciones de los usos locales actuales asociados con el turismo y la de Politica para la Bioprospeccion en Jamaica protecci6n costera (Gustavson 1998; Ruitenbeeky Cartier Putterman (1998) ofrece recomendaciones especificas 1999) y, como se sefialo anteriormente, se anticipa que para el fortalecimiento institucional y de politica con estos tendran un efecto insignificante sobre el valor mar- respecto a la incorporaci6n del aprovechamiento de ginal de los arrecifes de coral. Sin embargo, Ruitenbeek recursos geneticos dentro de la GIZC (gesti6n integral Y Cartier (1999) sefialan que los impactos de los costos de la zona costera) en Jamaica como una herramienta institucionales asociados con la operaci6n de un programa potencialmente poderosa para la conservaci6n y el de bioprospecci6n nacional en Jamaica, de acuerdo a lo desarrollo econ6mico. La diversidad gen6tica o molecu- recomendado por Putterman (1998), son minimos. La lar, una medida de la diversidad biol6gica entre especies, implementaci6n de un programa de bioprospecci6n puede puede ser la fuente de nuevos productos farmac 'uticos, estar garantizada. La pregunta es si existe la voluntad de productos industriales y variedades agricolas. Muchas los administradores locales y de las partes interesadas en estrategias para la colaboraci6n en la investigaci6n- el Parque Marino de la Bahia de Montego para invol- estraegla par la claboacl6 en l mvetlgal6n- ucrarse en este tipo de iniciativas. como una estrategia que reduce riesgos para maximizar la posibilidad de descubrir nuevos quimicos o genes- Modelando Resultados y Recomendaciones de pueden ser empleadas. Asi tambien, existen muchos Politica para el Uso de Modelos de mecanismos de reparto de beneficios y opciones de com- Apoyo a la Tomas de Decisiones pensaci6n (ver Putterman 1998). De acuerdo a Putterman Generalmente, mAs alla de preguntas especificas sobre (1998), actualmente no existe ninguna politica en Jamaica politicas e institucionales que surgen cuando uno considera que regule el acceso a recursos geneticos. Una revisi6n el desarrollo potencial de un programa de bioprospecci6n Annex D-Modelos de Apoyo a las Decisiones Ecol6gico-Economicas para la Gesti6n Integral 267 en la Bahia de Montego, surgen cuestiones de polItica Las partes interesadas involucradas en los estudios de asociadas con las intervenciones de menor costo y con caso expresaron la necesidad y su interes en lograr un los resultados de la modelaci6n de los beneficios del entendimiento mas completo en cuanto a las actividades arrecife de coral. Ruitenbeek y Cartier (1999) notan que de desarrollo y conservaci6n, en marcha y programadas, si la eficiencia econ6mica es la meta, tanto los costos y que involucran a la zona costera. Ya sea que se trate de los beneficios deben ser considerados en la investigaci6n pescadores locales, operadores de deportes acuaticos, cuando una trata con sistemas complejos no lineales tales hoteleros, empresarios locales, residentes locales o turistas, como los arrecifes de coral. El analisis costo-efectividad es clave satisfacer estos requerimientos de informaci6n por si solo no puede ser adecuado. Ruitenbeek and Cartier para lograr una gesti6n efectiva de la zona costera. La (1999) tambien llaman la atenci6n sobre la necesidad de estrategia de diseminaci6n es necesaria para incrementar poner un mayor enfasis a nivel local sobre las dimensiones la participaci6n de los diversos grupos de interes en la socioecon6micas y relativas a la gesti6n asociadas con evaluaci6n de los cambios en el medio marino y en la los usos directos, incluyendo la promoci6n de regimenes mitigaci6n o prevenci6n de impactos negativos sobre los locales practicos para la gesti6n que consideran e involu- arrecifes de coral. El desarrollo de una red de tomadores cran a todas las partes afectadas. Este punto tambien es de decisiones e investigadores-"una comunidad de destacado por Bunce y Gustavson (1 998a). practicantes"-para asi poder compartir experiencias internacionales en la restauraci6n del arrecife de coral y donde se fomenten esfaerzos de colaboraci6n para la Diseminaci6n investigaci6n es un aspecto clave. Las aproximaciones de estas investigaciones-basadas en COCOMO la intervenci6n de menor costo y en la valoraci6n-sobre los modelos presentados son herramientas de apoyo a la eCOCOMO es un modelo de apoyo a la toma de decisiones r ~~en la gesti6n de la zona costera de la BahIa de Montego toma de decisiones, para el disefno de politica y para la capacitaci6n de lo s administradore s de l os arrec ife s de que ilustra lo s prob lemas co stero s y e stima lo s efe cto s de . de los.aminisradoesdelosrrecis las actividades humanas. Tambien sirve como una herra- coral y tomadores de decisiones en el gobiemo que se mienta para el desarrollo de politicas y construcci6n de ven enfrentados a asuntos significativos respecto a la capacidades para la gesti6n integrada de zonas costeras gesti6n de los arrecifes de coral. La estrategia consoli- (GIZC).Eles de cason laegrada de Monteras dadade iseinai6npar losproects h teidolas (GIZC). El estudio de caso en la BahIa de Montego fue siguientes fases: aci para los proyectos ha tenido las seleccionado para el proyecto de modelaci6n interactivo siguientes fases: debido a las necesidades criticas que existen por este tipo • El lanzamiento de una "gira" para diseminar los de herramienta. El centro urbano se esta experimentando resultados lo que incluye un CD-ROM del COCOMO- el modelo de apoyo a las decisiones-cuyas siglas un rapido, con un desarrollo por lo general ad hoc y sin significan arrecifes COsteros en la COsta de la bahia planificaci6n. Han ocurrido muchas alteraciones fisicas de MOntego; en la zona costera, incluyendo rellenos sanitarios en el La continuaci6n de talleres apoyados por la unidad de litoral, destrucci6n de manglares, y sedimentaci6n; ademas Gesti6n del Conocimiento del Banco Mundial, local y de un enriquecimiento de nutrientes en el litoral, presiones nacionalmente, con las metas consistentes en obtener intensivas sobre las pesquerias, y un uso extensivo por retroalimentaci6n en cuanto a los hallazgos de in- los deportes acuaticos, buceo, e industrias de turismo. Esto vestigaciones aplicadas con modelos, identificaci6n de ha resultado en la degradaci6n de la calidad del agua y de areas prioritarias para investigaciones futuras, e los recursos costeros, y ha causado impactos significativos identificaci6n de posibilidades potenciales para al valioso ecosistema de arrecifes de coral. fortalecer la capacidad regional y local en la gesti6n de Especificamente, la investigaci6n aplicada a partir de recursos costeros; la utilizaci6n del modelo COCOMO esta brindando * La creaci6n de programas propiciados por los usuarios asistencia al Fondo Marino de la Bahia de Montego con en la pagina web de la unidad de Gesti6n del Conoci- un programa integral y coherente que: miento del Banco Mundial (BIONODE y Recursos Acuaticos) y en otras paginas web; y consenso por parte de los grupos de interes con respecto * Apoyo al Fondo del Parque Marino de la Bahia de a las prioridades ambientales en la Bahia de Montego; Montego en la preparaci6n de un proyecto replicable * Identifica los desafios para abordar los asuntos relativos regionalmente, conocido como ReefFix (Jameson y a la gesti6n de la zona costera en la Bahia de Montego, en e corto y largo plazo, con la ayuda de las diferentes 268 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling organizaciones gubemamentales y no gubernamentales capacidades incluye el fortalecimiento de las capacidades involucradas (ONGs). humanas e institucionales para la gesti6n integral, la Identifica inversiones ambientales especificas con ciencia, la capacitaci6n y la educaci6n. Se reconoce que soluciones factibles y de bajo costo; y, no s6lo es importante transferir informaci6n a los paises Inicia un proceso de dialogo entre los grupos de interes. en desarrollo, sino tambien fomentar el intercambio de La conexi6n a la computadora del modelo, de facil uso lecciones aprendizaje con base a experiencias y construir para los usuarios, ha sido desarrollada para disefiadores el conocimiento local (el expertise)para la gesti6n de los de politica, especialistas, y todos aquellos interesados en arrecifes de coral. asuntos costeros en la Bahia de Montego. El mecanismo El programa tiene los siguientes objetivos: de conexi6n hace uso intensivo de graficos para propor- * Utilizar el modelo de apoyo a la toma de decisiones para cionar a los usuarios una breve visi6n general de asuntos del Parque Marino de la Bahia Montego (COCOMO) costeros y como la urbanizaci6n, pesca, turismo, agricul- para proporcionar informaci6n a los administradores y tura, industria y los hogares impactan en la zona costera tomadores de decisiones locales; y en los arrecifes de coral de la Bahia de Montego. La * Desarrollar e implementar un plan de acci6n para la informaci6n sobre el ecosistema de arrecifes de coral y gesti6n de cuencas para el Parque Marino de la Bahia de Montego para mejorar la calidad del agua marina e la vida marina asociada se encuentra almacenada dentro dcmrementar la abundancia biol6gica de los arrecifes de del modelo, asi como tambien la informaci6n sobre la coral; contribuci6n del arrecife a la Bahia de Montego a traves coeala de~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~~. la*eqeis ltrso yl rtcincsea Desarrollar e implementar un plan de acci6n para la de las pesquerias el usm o, diaereccioter gesti6n de pesquerias en el Parque Marino en ln Bahia traves de la conexi6n del usuario, diferentes acciones de Montego para incrementar la abundancia de peces, pueden ser adoptadas para la protecci6n de la zona costera mejorar las condiciones econ6micas de los pescadores, y de los arrecifes de coral, algunas siendo mas costo- y ayudar al Parque Marino de la Bahia de Montego para efectivas que otras. COCOMO predice el grupo de inter- que sea autosostenido desde el punto de vista fmanciero; venciones de menor costo para alcanzar una abundancia . Implementar un plan de acci6n demostrativo para las especificada en el arrecife de coral. De tal manera que, Americas tropicales el cual mejorara la capacidad de la los impactos vinculados a desarrollos (e.g., urbanizaci6n) GIZC para la restauraci6n de ecosistemas de arrecife pueden ser explorados y se pueden establecer prioridades de coral en otros paises. Esto puede incluir la aplicaci6n para futuras acciones para la gesti6n costeras. En el de un modelo GIZC de menor costo para apoyar la toma proceso de utilizar el modelo, el usuario obtiene una de decisiones que pueda ser adaptado de acuerdo a las conciencia unica de las relaciones entre las actividades necesidades locales. costeras. Asimismo, la comunicaci6n entre las partes involucradas es mejorada. Proceso y Aplicaciones de Politica ReefFix Una optimizaci6n econ6mica racional, considerando ex- Un proyecto demostrativo consistente en la restauraci6n clusivamente los costos de las intervenciones de gesti6n de los arrecifes de coral en el contexto de la GIZC, la conjuntamente con la valoraci6n de los beneficios econ- gesti6n de cuencas y la construcci6n de capacidades- 6micos totales recibidos, (e.g., vease la soluci6n para la ReefFix-esta siendo implementado en el Parque Marino Bahia de Montego proporcionada en Ruitenbeek y Cartier de la Bahia de Montego (Jameson y Huber 1999). Reef- 1999), puede que aparentemente reduzca el rol de las Fix es la fase de implementaci6n de los resultados del partes interesadas y de las agencias de gesti6n en el modelo de apoyo a la toma de decisiones. La meta del proceso de fijaci6n de metas y en la manifestaci6n de programa es disefiar e implementar un proyecto de res- diversos valores representados por los diferentes grupos tauraci6n de los arrecifes de coral ymanejo de cuencas de de usuarios. En efecto, el enfoque general de Rijsberman menor costo y luego transferir la informaci6n y la tecno- yWestmacott (1996) y deWestmacotty Rijsberman (1997) logia a otros paises tropicales de America que esten en- -en el desarrollo e implementaci6n de los modelos de frentando desafios similares. Una caracteristica clave de apoyo a la toma de decisiones Coral-Curacao y Coral- ReefFix es que este adopta un enfoque impulsado por Maldivas-fue concentrarse en la capacidad de las necesidades especificas depoliticarelacionadasala gesti6n autoridades (tomadores de decisiones) para analizar, a de los arrecifes de coral que experimentan impactos sig- traves de diferentes escenarios definidos por el usuario, nificativos. El componente dirigido a la construcci6n de el costo-efectividad de intervenciones altemativas y las Annex D-Modelos de Apoyo a las Decisiones Ecol6gico-Econ6micas para la Gestion Integral 269 condiciones econ6micas, sociales y ambientales efectuadas. Se requieren investigaciones adicionales que resultantes de acuerdo a lo reflejado por varios indicadores. involucren a las partes interesadas y a las agencias de La aproximaci6n inicial del modelo no llega tan lejos como gesti6n presentes en el lugar donde se Ileva a cabo el para derivar 6ptimo global, pero se enfoca en proveer un estudio de caso, tal como se describe anteriormente en la medio por el cual los tomadores de decisiones (y aquellas estrategia de diseminaci6n, para refinar las personas interesadas) puedan explorar altemativas de recomendaciones y desarrollar programas de gesti6n in- gesti6n. tegral en zonas costeras. El disefio de intervenciones La definici6n de una soluci6n 6ptima mediante un especificas podria requerir un refinamiento basado en una modelo de apoyo a la toma de decisiones no consideraci6n mas profunda de las condiciones locales necesariamente impide la participaci6n de las partes sociales e institucionales a traves de un proceso mas interesadas localmente en las decisiones de gesti6n, sin participativo. Adicionalmente, aunque los resultados embargo, se deben tomar las precauciones necesarias para presentados aqui se derivan de modelos basados en "el que esto no ocurra. La participaci6n de las partes estado del arte", se reconoce que existieron deficiencias interesadas y las agencias responsables de la gesti6n no notables en la cantidad y calidad de la informaci6n debe ser olvidada. Las recomendaciones generadas por ecol6gica y econ6mica disponible, asi como importantes la soluci6n de un modelo normativo puede que no sea deficiencias en el desarrollo de la ciencia que subyace a adecuada o factible dado el contexto institucional y so- la construcci6n del modelo. En resumen, los modelos no cial especifico. En efecto, el exito de cualquier programa deberian ser utilizados para dictar las orientaciones de la de gesti6n de arrecifes de coral sera grandemente afectado gesti6n de los arrecifes de coral, pero son para ayudar a por el entorno social y por el proceso mismo de toma de sustentar tales decisiones. decisiones. Es critico que las partes interesadas esten Futuras Orientaciones para los Modelos de Apoyo a involucradas en el mayor niumero de etapas del desarrollo la Toma de Decisiones de un programa de gesti6n en tanto sea practico, aiu si es Un desaflo significativo en el estudio de sistemas simplemente a traves de un ejercicio para compartir complejos no lineales, tales como los ecosistemas de informaci6n. Como ha llegado a ser crecientemente arrecife de coral, esta en proporcionar una descripci6n evidente en todos los procesos de gesti6n ambiental, es el adecuada de la composici6n, relaciones funcionales y proceso en si mismo el que frecuentemente juega el papel comportamiento del sistema en cuesti6n. Ruitenbeek y clave para un programa de gesti6n exitoso. Sin un proceso Cartier (1999) y Ruitenbeek et al. (1999a, 1999b) sefialan abierto y participativo, es de esperarse que surjan barreras que la investigaci6n mostrar un mayor enfasis en el analisis significativas a la gesti6n efectiva. de ecosistemas, con un enfoque en encadenamientos y Los modelos de apoyo a la toma de decisiones deberian relaciones funcionales. El desarrollo de modelos de apoyo ser implementados dentro de un contexto especifico de a la toma de decisiones ecol6gico-econ6micas esta siendo politica. Esto es especialmente cierto respecto a los obstruido por la falta de entendimiento respecto al componentes de la valoraci6n, como ha sido sefialado por comportamiento de ecosistemas; la incertidumbre sobre Ruitenbeek y Cartier (1999). La selecci6n de una tecnica el funcionamiento del ecosistema puede impedir el analisis de entre un numero de tecnicas de valoraci6n deberia ser econ6mico racional uitil. dirigida por preguntas especificas de politica a la mano o Las tecnicas de modelaci6n de sistemas complejos por los aspectos analiticos que necesitan ser abordados. tales como las tecnicas 16gicas probabilisticas pueden ser Las preguntas politicas definen la informaci6n que se mas utiles. El componente de intervenciones de menor necesita y el analisis que es requerido. El disefio y costo de los modelos de apoyo a la toma de decisiones, de utilizaci6n de los modelos de apoyo a la toma de decisiones acuerdo a lo resumido aqui, demuestra la utilidad de deben estar sujetos a mejoras. incorporar un entorno de modelaci6n 16gico y Aunque los escenarios-resultantes del desarrollo de probabilistico cuando se examina el comportamiento de los modelos de apoyo a las decisiones ecologico- un ecosistema de arrecife de coral en respuesta a econ6micas como los reportados en este articulo-hayan intervenciones o presiones antr6picas. La investigaci6n definido recomendaciones especificas de politica en posterior acerca del uso de tecnicas probabilisticas en cuanto a los tipos de intervenciones requeridas y el nivel aplicaciones similares esta garantizada (Smith 1994). de salud del arrecife de coral que deberia alcanzarse en Aunque pueda ser que tal vez se requiera una combinaci6n los lugares estudiados, todavia es demasiado temprano el de diferente tecnicas - tales como modelos lineales desarrollo y uso de dichos modelos como para poder deterministicos, modelos de simulaciones complejas, recomendar que las inversiones requeridas ya sean modelos l6gicos probabilisticos o redes neuralgicas-para 270 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling la exploraci6n del comportamiento y de las interacciones sin embargo, permanece como meta principal en el entre sistemas ecol6gicos y econ6micos. desarrollo de indicadores satisfacer tantos como sea La vinculacion de sistemas dispares dentro de un posible dada las limitaciones del nivel de conocimiento entorno de modelaci6n es un desaflo continuo al cual se cientifico disponible y las restricciones en la investigaci6n. enfrenta el campo de la economia ecol6gica, asi como Se afirma que la cobertura de los arrecifes de coral es un tambi6n otras areas interdisciplinarias. Areas tales como indicador razonable de la salud del arrecife de coral dadas la biologia de la conservaci6n y la economia han luchado estas limitaciones, pero el futuro desarrollo de estos por separado con una incapacidad de proporcionar vinculos modelos de apoyo a la toma de decisiones puede necesita adecuados entre las actividades economicas y el declive refinar o modificar los indicadores utilizados. El desar- de especies o ecosistemas. Generalmente, una descripci6n rollo de indicadores ecosistemicos para ser usados en la o caracterizaci6n concreta de un ambiente ecol6gico econ- toma de decisiones y en el desarrollo de politicas esta en 6mico complejo es requerida sencillamente para facilitar su infancia, aunque progresos estan siendo hechos (e.g., latoma de decisiones enla gesti6n. Los indicadores, como Jameson et al. 1999). C6mo es que tales indicadores variables aproximadas o simplificaciones de una realidad pueden formar el "nexo" entre los componentes ecol6- compleja, muchas veces cumplen esta funci6n. gicos y econ6micos de modelos de sistemas complejos, En los esfuerzos de modelaci6n presentados aqui, el y a la vez facilitar la conciencia y entendimiento-es una indicador principal utilizado para la salud del arrecife de pregunta que todavia necesita ser investigada. coral fue la cobertura espacial (i.e., el porcentaje del Como un punto final relacionado a un posterior desar- sustrato total disponible cubierto por arrecifes de coral rollo y perfeccionamiento de modelos de apoyo a la toma vivos). Este indicadorproporciono un "vinculo" descrip- de decisiones ecol6gico-econ6micas para una GIZC, tivo sencillo entre las actividades econ6micas y el eco- cualquier analisis debe ser capaz de explorar las posibles sistema de arrecife de coral afectado. Ademas, este variaciones en los resultados y en las subsiguientes indicador form6 la base para decisiones respecto a las recomendaciones. Es indispensable que los modelos de "mej ores" intervenciones en la gesti6n con el fin de recibir apoyo a la toma de decisiones incluyan un analisis de el mayor rendimiento en beneficios y respecto al grado sensibilidad o alguffn medio con el cual medir el riesgo o de las intervenciones garantizadas para obtener un los posibles errores asociados con cualquiera de los resultado econ6micamente eficiente. Esto genera una escenarios. Por ejemplo, el modelo de valoraci6n de la pregunta obvia-,es este indicador de la salud del arrecife bioprospecci6n mostr6 que los estimados de la producti- de coral adecuado, o acaso deberian otros indicadores ser vidad del ecosistema fueron altamente dependientes de incluidos en el modelo? relaci6n especie-area asumida (Ruitenbeeky Cartier 1999). Las propiedades de un "buen" indicador a ser usado Relativamente pequefias variaciones en este tipo de rela- en el proceso de toma de decisiones y en el desarrollo de ciones no lineales intrinsecas al modelo pueden conducir politicas podrian ser descritas como sigue: a grandes variaciones en el resultado. Las recomenda- * El disefio del indicador corresponde al prop6sito y ciones relacionadas a la politica 6ptima deben tener esto aplicaci6n escogidos; en cuenta. La cautela es prudente hasta que la ciencia de * La base de valor subyacente al disenlo del indicador es modelos de apoyo a la toma de decisiones y sus aplica- explicita; ciones se hayan desarrollado hasta un punto que garantice gran confianza en los resultados. * El indicador proporciona una simplificaci6n o Coa tin ensajesfinal,se abstracci6n suficiente de las caracteristicas del sistema Codo a La t e decsne ecabajicon "meta"; modelos de apoyo a la toma de decisiones ecol6gico- economicas probarai ser util en el desarrallo de programas * La teoria detras del disefio del indicador es relativamente ectivos para srZ i en lasarroena de desar- s6lida; ~~~~~~~~~~~efectivos para la GIZC en los tr6picos en vias de desar- solida; rollo. Investigaciones y perfeccionamientos posteriores * La sensibilidad del indicador a los cambios en los de los modelos, junto con una mayor atenci6n a los pro- parametros del sistema ha sido suficientemente cesos de toma de decisiones, deberian ser vistas camo tn explorada y definida, y el indicador es suficientemente desaflo necesario, y no como un impedimento. Dada la sensible para satisfacer el prop6sito de su disefio; y, evidencia emergente que idica qe estamos enfrentando * La informaci6n proporcionada por el indicador puede una crisis ecol6gica a nivel mundial con la desaparici6n ser entendida y aplicada por el usuario. de los arrecifes de coral, la gesti6n debe avanzar dada el No se puede esperar que la mayoria de los indicadores mejor paquete de herramientas actualmente disponible satisfagan todos los criterios mencionados anteriormente; para apoyar la toma de decisiones. 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Maryland Sea Grant Publication, College Park MD List of Contributors Leah Bunce Bernward Hay International Program Office Louis Berger and Associates, Inc National Ocean Service, NOAA 75 Second Avenue, Suite 700 1305 East-West Highway Needham, MA 02494 SSMC-IV/ 13" Floor USA Silver Spring, MD 20910 Tel: +1 781 444 3330, ext.282 USA Fax: +1 781 444 0099 Tel: +1 301 713 3078, ext.129 E-Mail: hay@lberger.com Fax: +1 301 713 4263 E-mail: LBunce(ocean.nos.noaa.gov Richard M Huber The World Bank, Rm 16-025 Cynthia Cartier Environmentally and Socially Sustainable Development HJ Ruitenbeek Resource Consulting Ltd Sector Management Unit RR#2, Site 52, C21 Latin America and the Caribbean Region (LCSES) Gabriola, BC VOR IXO 1818 H Street NW Canada Washington, DC 20433 Tel: +1 250 247 8436 United States of America Fax: +1 250 247 8492 Tel: +1 202 473 8581 E-mail: ccartier@island.net Fax: +1 202 522 3540 E-mail: RHuberlworldbank.org Steve Dollar School of Ocean & Earth Science & Technology Stephen C Jameson University of Hawaii at Manoa Coral Seas Inc - 1000 Pope Road Integrated Coastal Zone Management Honolulu, Hawaii 96822 4254 Hungry Run Road USA ThePlains,VA 20198-1715 Tel: +1 808 956 7631 United States of America Fax: +1 808 956 3014 Tel: +1 703 754 8690 E-mail: sdollar@soest.hawaii.edu Fax: +1 703 754 9139 E-Mail:sjameson@coralseas.com Kent Gustavson Gustavson Ecological Resource Consulting Christiane Kloditz PO Box 115 Resource Analysis Gabriola, BC VOR IXO Zuiderstraat 110 Canada 2611 SJ Delft Tel: +1 250 247 9734 The Netherlands Fax: +1 250 247 9735 Tel: +31 015 2191507 E-mail: gustecol@netcom.ca Fax: +31 015 2124892 E-mail: Christiane.Kloditz@resource.nl Nick Hanley Institute of Ecology and Resource Management Daniel Putterman Kings Building Genetic Resources Consulting University of Edinburgh 1828 L Street NW, Suite 1000 Edinburgh, Scotland EH9 3JG Washington, DC 20036 United Kingdom USA Tel: +44 131 5354111 Tel: +1 202 463 8450 Fax: +44 131 6672601 Fax: +1 202 293 4598 E-mail: N.D.Hanley@ed.ac.uk E-mail: dputterman@igc.apc.org 292 Integrated Coastal Zone Management of Coral Reefs: Decision Support Modeling Mark Ridgley Jasper D van der Werff ten Bosch Department of Geography Resource Analysis University of Hawaii at Manoa Zuiderstraat 110 2424 Maile Way 2611 SJ Delft Honolulu, Hawaii 96822 The Netherlands USA Tel: +31 015 2191507 Tel: +1 808 956 7030 Fax: +31 015 2124892 Fax: +1 808 956 3512 E-mail: Jasper.v.d.Werff@resource.nl E-mail: ridgley(hawaii.edu Saskia Wemers Frank Rijsberman Resource Analysis Resource Analysis Zuiderstraat 110 Zuiderstraat 110 2611 SJ Delft 2611 SJ Delft The Netherlands The Netherlands Tel: +31 015 2191507 Tel: +31 015 2191507 Fax: +31 015 2124892 Fax: +31 015 2124892 E-mail: Saskia.Wemers@resource.nl E-mail: Frank.Rijsberman@resource.nl Susie Westmacott Jack Ruitenbeek 33 Old Priory Close, Hamble HJ Ruitenbeek Resource Consulting Ltd Southampton, S031 4QP RR#2, Site 52, C21 United Kingdom Gabriola, BC VOR IXO Tel: +44 1703 457 950 Canada Fax: +44 1703 457 950 Tel: +1 250 247 8436 E-mail: susie@infobonaire.com Fax: ±1 250 247 8492 E-mail: hjruiten@web.net Jill Williams Clive L Spash Executive Director Departlment of Land Economy The Montego Bay Marine Park Trust Universitm of Cambridge Pier 1, Howard Cooke Blvd. 19 Silver Street Montego Bay Cambridge CB3 9EP Jamaica United Kingdom Tel: +1 876 952 5619 Tel: +44 1223 339773 Fax: +1 876 940 0659 Fax: +44 1223 337130 E-mail: mbmpWn5.comjm E-mail: cls27@cam.ac.uk THE WORLD BANK 1818 H Street, N.W Washington, D.C. 20433 USA Telephone: 202-477-1234 Facsimile: 202-477-6391 Telex: MCI 64145 WORLDBANK MCI 248423 WORLDBANK Internet: vwww.orldbank.org E-mail: books Ca:worldbank.org ISBN 0-8213-4628-8