98999 For more information, visit http://www.worldbank.org/prospects Taking Stock  U.S. Fed minutes downplayed possibility of June rate hike. According to the minutes of the U.S. Federal Reserve's April 29-30 policy meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee members that thought June could still be the right time for the first rate hike since the financial crisis were outnumbered by members who thought conditions were unlikely to be right by then, following a string of weak economic data released thus far this year. Meanwhile, new data showed that core inflation rose a larger-than-expected 0.3 percent in April, sending the dollar higher and pushing U.S. government bonds yields up.  Eurozone inflation confirmed at zero in April. Eurozone inflation was zero (y/y) in April, as initially estimated, after falling for four consecutive months. Core inflation, which excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, held steady at 0.6 percent, in line with the earlier flash estimate.  Turkey’s central bank kept key interest rates unchanged, while consumer confidence fell. For the third consecutive month, Turkey's central bank maintained the one-week repo rate at 7.5 percent. The overnight lending rate and overnight borrowing rate were also kept at 10.75 percent and 7.25 percent, respectively. Meanwhile, the Turkish consumer confidence index fell to 64.3 in May from 65.4 in April, a six-year low (Figure 1).  Mexico’s GDP growth slowed in Q1 2015. After growing 0.7 percent (q/q) in Q4 2014, Mexican GDP expanded by a larger-than-expected 0.4 percent in Q1 2015. The slowdown was partly due to weather-related weakness in the U.S economy and lower oil prices (Figure 2). The Mexican government has consequently lowered this year’s growth forecast. The economy is now expected to grow between 2.2 and 3.2 percent, compared to the previous forecast of between 3.2 and 4.2 percent.  South Africa’s inflation increased to a four -month high, while retail sales slowed. South Africa's consumer price index climbed 4.5 percent (y/y) in April from the 4 percent increase in March. It was the highest inflation figure since December 2014. Core inflation slowed slightly for the second consecutive month to 5.6 percent, from 5.7 percent in March. Meanwhile, retail sales rose by a less-than-expected 2 percent (y/y) in March, following February's 3.7 percent increase. Amid weakening domestic growth outlook, the central bank left the policy rate unchanged at 5.75 percent. FIGURE 1 Turkey’s consumer confidence fell to a six-year low FIGURE 2 Mexico’s GDP growth slowed in Q1 2015 Index Billions of New Pesos Percent 85 14500 GDP (LHS) 1.5 GDP growth (RHS) 80 14000 1.0 75 13500 0.5 70 13000 0.0 65 12500 12000 -0.5 60 11500 -1.0 55 Q1 2011 Q3 2011 Q1 2012 Q3 2012 Q3 2013 Q1 2014 Q3 2014 Q1 2015 Q1 2013 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 Source: Haver Analytics. Source: Haver Analytics. Produced by DECPG (Derek Chen, Gerard Kambou, Xinghao Gong). Number 264 | May 22, 2015 Weekly Insight: Global Trends and Outlook for Remittance Costs The global average cost for sending money remained broadly at 8 percent in the fourth quarter of 2014, with the highest average cost (about 12 percent) in Sub-Saharan Africa. The introduction of online and mobile transfer systems in many developing countries offers new opportunities for more cost-effective means of sending money.  The global average cost of sending money – measured by the average cost of sending $200 – declined slightly to 7.7 percent of the amount transferred in the first quarter of 2015 from 8 percent in the fourth quarter of 2014. (Figure 3). The average cost of sending money via money transfer operators (MTOs) fell to 8 percent from 8.2 percent in Q4 2014. The weighted average cost (weighted by the size of bilateral remittance flows) remained flat at 6 percent of the amount transferred. That the weighted average cost has remained below the global average cost suggests that costs are lower in higher volume corridors. From Q4 2013 to Q4 2014, the costs of remittances declined in all regions, except in Middle East and North Africa. The average cost of sending remittances exceeded 8 percent in MENA and East Asia and Pacific. It remained, however, highest in Sub-Saharan Africa, at 11.5 percent of the amount sent, despite a substantial reduction (Figure 4).  The introduction of online and mobile transfer systems in many developing countries offers new opportunities for more cost-effective means of sending money. Mobile money transfer services such as MPesa have transformed the landscape for domestic remittances in several African countries. The digitization of domestic remittances has reduced the costs of sending remittances to rural areas. The use of money transfer technologies in cross-border transactions, however, remains limited. The value of international remittances through mobile phones accounted for less than 2 percent of global remittance flows in 2013. International interoperability of mobile systems and anti-money- laundering and the countering of financing terror (AML/CFT) regulations still create barriers to entry for new players.  Promoting policies that reduce entry barriers, and eliminating exclusivity conditions for incumbent providers would increase competition and lower remittance costs. The renewed focus on AML/CFT has led many banks to stop offering remittance services and to close the account of money transfer operators. These developments have increased remittance costs and possibly encouraged the use of informal channels. Reducing remittance costs from the current average of 8 percent to 3 percent by 2030, as proposed by the Open Working Group on Sustainable Development, would translate into significant saving for migrants and their families. FIGURE 3 The global average cost of sending $200 fell slightly in FIGURE 4 Sub-Saharan Africa is the costliest region to which to Q1 2015 (period averages). send $200 (average costs). Percent Global Average Percent 20 SAR LAC 14 Fourth quarter 2013 12.6 ECA Europe and Central Asia (excl. Russia) 12 Fourth quarter 2014 11.5 EAP MENA 10 15 SSA 8.6 8.3 8.1 8.6 8.0 7.8 8 7.0 6.6 5.9 6.0 6.3 6.2 6 10 4 2 5 0 2008 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Global SAR LAC ECA EAP MENA SSA 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 Average Source: Remittance Prices Worldwide, World Bank. Source: Remittance Prices Worldwide, World Bank. . Produced by DECPG (Dilip Ratha, Gerard Kambou and Xinghao Gong). Number 264 | May 22, 2015 Major Data Releases Fri, 15 May - Thu, 21 May 2015 Upcoming releases: Fri, 22 May - Thu, 28 May 2015 Country Date Indicator Period Actual Forecast Previous Country Date Indicator Period Previous Greece 5/15/2015 GDP (Q/Q) Q1 -0.2 % -0.5 % -0.4 % Germany 5/22/2015 GDP (Q/Q) Q1 0.7 % Thailand 5/17/2015 GDP(Q/Q) Q1 0.3 % -0.95 % 1.1% Italy 5/22/2015 Retail Sales (Y/Y) MAR -0.5 % Japan 5/18/2015 Industrial Production (Y/Y) MAR -1.7 % -1.2% -2.0% United States 5/22/2015 CPI (Y/Y) APR -0.1 % Eurozone 5/19/2015 CPI (Y/Y) APR 0.0% -0.1% -0.1% Canada 5/22/2015 Retail Sales (Y/Y) MAR 2.5 % Japan 5/19/2015 GDP(Q/Q) Q1 2.4% 1.5% 1.1% South Africa 5/26/2015 GDP (Q/Q) Q1 4.1% Malaysia 5/20/2015 CPI (Y/Y) APR 2.0% 2.3% 0.9% Philippines 5/28/2015 GDP (Q/Q) Q1 2.5% Economic Developments indicators expressed as %ch y/y, except Industrial Production quarterly figures are %ch q/q, annualized 2014 2014 2015 2010 2011 2012 2013 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Industrial Production, S.A. World 8.8 4.7 3.1 2.5 3.7 2.4 2.5 3.9 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.4 2.7 3.4 3.1 2.9 3.3 2.7 2.5 2.4 High Income Countries 7.7 2.9 1.1 0.6 2.9 0.3 0.6 3.1 2.9 2.8 2.2 2.3 2.4 1.2 1.8 1.8 1.4 2.0 1.7 1.4 1.3 Developing Countries 10.9 7.8 6.3 5.5 5.0 5.5 5.3 5.1 4.9 4.8 5.5 5.4 5.0 4.8 6.0 5.1 5.1 5.4 4.1 4.2 3.9 East Asia and Pacific 14.2 11.3 9.0 8.9 5.1 8.0 6.5 8.6 7.5 7.9 8.2 8.6 7.8 6.6 7.6 7.1 6.6 7.4 6.5 6.2 5.7 East Asia x. China 8.9 0.7 4.1 4.7 -0.4 7.9 4.1 6.5 0.5 2.6 4.0 4.8 1.1 4.6 5.8 4.4 4.0 5.0 4.5 2.9 5.8 Europe and Central Asia 11.0 13.1 8.9 2.2 5.0 2.1 1.6 -0.6 4.1 4.2 6.6 3.6 4.0 2.4 2.8 2.6 2.1 1.4 0.1 2.0 3.0 Latin America and Caribbean 5.9 2.5 -0.1 0.9 1.2 -2.5 -0.3 -2.9 1.6 -2.2 -1.1 -2.7 -1.5 -1.0 -1.4 -0.8 -1.5 -1.1 -2.3 -2.8 -3.0 Middle East and N. Africa 2.0 -8.5 5.6 -6.7 17.0 3.1 24.9 -2.0 -8.9 -9.1 -7.3 -4.7 -1.7 9.7 17.2 10.8 12.7 7.3 -0.3 -0.8 4.0 South Asia 9.3 5.5 1.1 1.7 7.0 5.8 2.2 -2.4 0.1 4.2 5.3 4.5 1.9 2.5 3.9 -1.0 5.8 4.3 3.5 5.3 3.3 Sub-Saharan Africa 4.7 3.5 3.2 1.1 -3.0 -1.0 -4.4 10.6 -0.2 0.3 -1.6 0.6 -7.3 -0.7 6.3 1.5 -0.8 0.5 -1.2 -0.1 3.3 Inflation, S.A. 1 High Income Countries 1.7 2.8 2.0 1.5 1.4 2.0 1.8 1.5 1.5 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.2 0.9 1.0 1.1 Developing Countries 5.8 7.5 6.5 7.4 7.5 7.7 7.9 7.9 7.5 7.5 7.9 7.7 7.9 8.0 7.8 7.7 7.7 8.2 7.7 7.9 7.8 East Asia and Pacific 3.4 5.6 2.8 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.5 2.2 2.9 2.5 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.5 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.3 1.5 2.0 2.0 Europe and Central Asia 7.3 8.2 8.7 6.2 5.8 7.4 7.9 8.1 6.2 7.0 7.6 7.5 7.7 8.0 8.1 8.2 8.4 7.8 7.6 8.2 9.2 Latin America and Caribbean 6.4 7.5 6.7 9.8 12.5 13.9 15.5 16.9 12.9 13.6 13.9 14.2 14.9 15.5 16.0 16.3 16.6 17.6 17.2 17.0 16.5 Middle East and N. Africa 7.0 12.0 13.8 19.2 13.2 9.7 10.1 10.8 11.3 10.1 9.9 9.2 9.9 10.2 10.1 10.6 10.6 11.3 10.4 10.9 11.1 South Asia 10.3 9.8 9.4 10.1 8.1 7.8 6.7 4.2 8.1 8.4 8.1 6.8 7.3 6.9 5.8 4.8 3.5 4.4 5.1 5.1 4.9 Sub-Saharan Africa 7.5 10.1 11.1 8.1 8.6 9.2 9.8 8.4 8.5 8.7 9.2 9.7 9.9 10.1 9.3 8.4 8.4 8.6 7.6 7.6 7.6 1 Inflation is calculated as the GDP-weighted average for all groups. Trade and Finance indicators expressed as %ch y/y, except International Reserves are %ch p/p and trade quarterly figures are %ch q/q, annualized 2014 2015 2010 2011 2012 2013 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Exports, Nominal, US$, S.A. World 21.9 19.2 0.3 1.8 -2.4 3.2 2.7 -16.1 2.7 2.4 3.8 3.2 5.6 0.6 2.6 -1.8 -4.6 -4.0 -11.3 -6.9 -13.7 High Income Countries 19.5 18.5 -1.1 1.3 0.7 0.9 -1.4 -19.4 5.2 3.2 4.1 2.5 5.0 -0.5 0.9 -3.5 -6.3 -5.8 -12.8 -12.9 -13.5 Developing Countries 28.3 20.8 3.5 3.1 -9.0 8.6 12.6 -8.5 -2.8 0.6 3.4 4.8 7.2 2.9 6.5 2.0 -0.7 0.0 -8.0 7.6 -14.1 East Asia and Pacific 30.8 19.7 6.3 6.5 -12.2 15.9 19.9 2.9 -3.6 2.2 5.5 7.7 11.2 8.2 12.7 8.3 3.5 5.8 -3.3 29.4 -11.7 Europe and Central Asia 15.5 20.3 -0.1 -0.2 8.1 -5.0 -6.8 -28.9 9.0 3.0 6.2 5.1 5.5 -4.1 -1.0 -6.3 -9.4 -11.8 -13.2 -16.3 -17.8 Latin America and Caribbean 28.1 23.2 1.7 0.6 -9.5 8.9 3.6 -25.0 -2.8 -0.3 1.3 1.8 5.8 -0.5 0.1 -4.1 -8.8 -6.6 -8.2 -12.8 -4.8 Middle East and N. Africa 24.0 15.6 5.2 -11.0 -4.1 -12.5 28.1 -32.3 -13.2 -13.1 -8.8 -9.3 -4.4 -8.5 -1.8 -5.1 -7.3 -10.6 -29.0 -- South Asia 34.3 31.6 -1.8 6.2 -7.5 4.4 6.1 -0.8 1.5 4.5 10.1 8.3 -0.6 1.1 -0.8 -5.8 8.3 -1.0 -7.7 -12.1 -18.9 Sub-Saharan Africa 32.6 19.9 -2.6 -0.6 -8.4 -7.1 -1.3 -17.3 -6.8 -5.3 -8.2 -2.7 -1.4 -10.2 -2.6 -9.8 -9.2 -7.0 -27.2 - - Imports, Nominal, US$, S.A. World 21.0 19.6 0.7 1.3 4.4 -1.8 1.6 -15.9 3.8 1.9 1.9 5.4 3.3 0.6 3.9 -1.9 -4.1 -3.7 -13.9 -13.6 -11.5 High Income Countries 17.9 17.7 -1.0 0.3 5.1 0.6 -2.8 -18.8 7.6 4.4 4.1 6.4 5.4 0.4 2.2 -3.2 -5.4 -4.6 -13.9 -13.7 -13.0 Developing Countries 29.7 24.5 4.6 3.6 2.9 -7.1 12.2 -9.3 -3.9 -3.2 -2.8 3.3 -1.2 1.0 7.7 1.0 -1.4 -1.8 -14.0 -13.3 -8.0 East Asia and Pacific 37.3 24.1 5.7 6.2 4.8 -15.0 14.3 -8.9 -9.9 -2.3 -3.6 3.8 -2.4 -0.7 7.2 2.9 -5.2 -3.4 -17.6 -17.4 -9.5 Europe and Central Asia 20.6 27.1 -0.4 2.9 -10.5 -5.8 -1.5 -9.9 -0.4 -5.1 -3.0 0.0 -6.5 -2.3 -3.1 -6.0 -6.9 -8.0 -15.4 -14.0 -12.9 Latin America and Caribbean 29.0 22.3 3.8 3.0 3.8 -2.1 4.8 -7.3 2.9 -4.4 -2.2 2.8 -0.5 -1.7 7.6 -4.2 0.3 3.3 -7.7 -7.9 0.3 Middle East and N. Africa 14.8 17.4 10.4 1.2 2.5 -1.3 19.2 -21.3 3.7 2.3 3.5 -1.5 2.9 11.4 8.8 0.1 -3.2 -0.7 -12.6 -- South Asia 33.9 31.4 4.0 -4.0 10.6 7.8 36.5 -13.0 1.6 -9.9 -10.1 8.8 4.1 7.0 23.6 7.2 21.5 -1.2 -12.1 -12.8 -10.6 Sub-Saharan Africa 13.0 24.8 4.3 2.3 2.0 16.6 1.0 5.9 4.5 2.2 6.9 4.6 4.3 6.7 9.1 5.8 4.1 8.7 -1.3 - - International Reserves, US$ High Income Countries 10.2 11.3 9.2 3.6 0.8 0.7 -1.8 -1.4 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.5 -0.4 0.0 -1.3 -0.6 0.0 -0.9 0.2 -0.1 -0.6 Developing Countries 15.6 10.5 5.2 8.2 1.8 1.5 -1.9 -1.7 0.7 1.0 0.1 0.4 -0.2 -0.1 -1.7 -0.7 -0.3 -0.7 -0.7 -0.2 -1.6 East Asia and Pacific 19.3 11.9 4.5 12.2 3.0 1.2 -2.5 -1.4 0.8 0.9 0.1 0.3 -0.5 0.1 -2.1 -0.8 -0.3 -0.4 -0.8 -0.2 -1.9 Europe and Central Asia 9.3 5.5 7.8 3.6 -2.9 3.4 -1.7 -7.2 0.6 1.6 0.7 1.0 -1.1 1.1 -1.7 -2.0 -1.1 -4.2 -0.9 -3.2 -2.1 Latin America and Caribbean 16.2 16.3 8.4 -1.1 0.2 3.4 1.2 -1.2 0.1 1.5 0.6 1.2 1.1 0.0 0.1 -0.1 0.7 -1.8 0.5 -0.3 -0.4 Middle East and N. Africa 6.1 3.0 5.9 3.0 -1.9 -2.2 -3.8 -3.2 -0.8 -0.8 -0.9 -0.6 -0.4 -1.1 -2.3 -0.2 -1.0 -2.1 -3.7 -0.8 - South Asia 6.1 -0.9 0.4 -0.2 3.8 5.6 -0.6 2.1 3.3 2.9 1.1 1.5 1.3 -0.4 -1.4 0.5 -0.3 1.9 1.9 3.3 1.0 Produced by DECPG (Trang Nguyen, Gerard Kambou and Xinghao Gong). Number 264 | May 22, 2015 Financial Markets 1 2013 2014 2014 2015 MRV Chg since 2010 2011 2012 2013 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Sep-12 '08 3 Interest rates and LIBOR (%) U.S. Fed Funds Effective 0.18 0.10 0.14 0.11 0.09 0.07 0.09 0.09 0.10 0.10 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.12 0.12 0.11 0.11 0.12 0.12 -1.98 ECB repo 1.00 1.25 0.88 0.55 0.35 0.25 0.22 0.12 0.05 0.16 0.15 0.15 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.00 0.05 -4.20 US$ LIBOR 3-months 0.34 0.34 0.43 0.27 0.24 0.24 0.23 0.23 0.24 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.25 0.25 0.26 0.27 0.28 0.28 -2.54 EURIBOR 3-months 0.75 1.34 0.49 0.15 0.20 0.27 0.27 0.13 0.00 0.21 0.17 0.16 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 -4.89 US 10-yr Treasury yield 3.20 2.77 1.79 2.33 2.73 2.75 2.61 2.49 2.27 2.59 2.53 2.41 2.52 2.29 2.32 2.20 1.88 1.98 2.04 1.92 2.25 -1.47 German Bund, 10 yr 2.78 2.65 1.57 1.63 1.79 1.68 1.43 1.07 0.77 1.35 1.19 1.01 1.00 0.87 0.79 0.64 0.45 0.35 0.26 0.16 0.63 -3.55 Spreads (basis points) JP Morgan Emerging Markets 301 341 342 319 342 352 300 301 367 282 282 310 312 349 350 402 443 420 411 388 368 11 Asia 206 218 216 219 237 231 197 195 202 189 195 202 187 207 193 206 233 215 208 206 192 -104 Europe 247 301 320 267 290 301 265 262 319 236 244 274 270 295 293 368 417 396 384 350 319 6 Latin America & Caribbean 360 404 393 379 409 429 360 366 471 343 336 373 390 443 455 516 560 531 521 488 475 87 Middle East 342 366 449 435 428 408 376 369 398 360 372 379 358 395 388 411 452 452 443 441 407 -91 Africa 274 364 337 322 338 332 287 280 319 278 278 292 270 307 306 343 385 364 371 361 345 345 Stock Indices (end of period) 2 Global (MSCI) 331 300 340 409 409 411 429 417 417 429 423 432 417 419 426 417 410 432 425 436 441 37.9 High-Income ($ Index) 1280 1183 1339 1661 1661 1674 1743 1698 1710 1743 1714 1749 1698 1708 1740 1710 1678 1773 1741 1778 1804 40.6 United States (S&P-500) 1258 1258 1426 1848 1848 1872 1960 1972 2059 1960 1931 2003 1972 2018 2068 2059 1995 2105 2068 2086 2126 69.8 Euro Area (S&P-350$) 1124 1005 1143 1339 1339 1361 1401 1411 1401 1401 1380 1404 1411 1382 1425 1401 1502 1603 1624 1618 1659 43.6 Japan (Nikkei-225) 10229 8455 10395 16291 16291 14828 15162 16174 0 15162 15621 15425 16174 16414 17460 0 17674 18798 19207 19520 20197 65.3 Developing Markets (MSCI) 1151 916 1055 1003 1003 995 1051 1005 956 1051 1066 1088 1005 1016 1005 956 962 990 975 1048 1036 21.1 EM Asia 468 379 447 446 446 444 472 460 457 472 485 489 460 467 467 457 468 479 481 514 508 55.0 EM Europe 529 395 473 438 438 409 435 374 297 435 403 399 374 369 353 297 286 313 302 338 341 -33.1 EM Europe & Middle East 450 336 402 372 372 348 360 321 257 360 340 337 321 314 303 257 247 269 258 286 288 -29.7 EM Latin America & Caribbean 4614 3602 3798 3201 3201 3194 3370 3171 2728 3370 3399 3664 3171 3158 3008 2728 2555 2654 2451 2693 2649 -25.1 Exchange Rates (LCU / USD) High Income Euro Area 0.76 0.72 0.78 0.75 0.73 0.73 0.73 0.76 0.80 0.74 0.74 0.75 0.78 0.79 0.80 0.81 0.86 0.88 0.92 0.92 0.90 28.1 Japan 87.76 79.74 79.85 97.61 100.51 102.78 102.14 104.04 114.62 102.07 101.75 102.98 107.39 108.02 116.40 119.44 118.33 118.78 120.37 119.53 121.20 12.3 Developing Brazil 1.76 1.67 1.95 2.16 2.28 2.36 2.23 2.28 2.55 2.23 2.22 2.27 2.34 2.45 2.55 2.65 2.64 2.82 3.15 3.04 3.00 68.6 China 6.77 6.46 6.31 6.15 6.09 6.10 6.23 6.16 6.15 6.23 6.20 6.15 6.14 6.13 6.13 6.19 6.22 6.25 6.24 6.20 6.20 -9.4 Egypt 5.63 5.94 6.07 6.87 6.89 6.96 7.07 7.15 7.15 7.15 7.15 7.15 7.15 7.15 7.15 7.15 7.27 7.59 7.60 7.60 7.63 40.7 India 45.73 46.67 53.41 58.55 62.00 61.75 59.82 60.59 61.96 59.76 60.06 60.83 60.87 61.40 61.70 62.77 62.20 62.06 62.48 62.69 63.83 39.6 Russia 30.37 29.41 31.06 31.86 32.56 35.07 34.96 36.31 47.98 34.37 34.75 36.17 38.01 40.96 46.30 56.67 64.33 64.16 60.13 52.82 49.85 95.3 South Africa 7.32 7.26 8.21 9.65 10.16 10.86 10.54 10.77 11.22 10.68 10.66 10.66 10.99 11.06 11.09 11.51 11.56 11.58 12.08 11.99 11.85 48.3 Memo: USA nominal effective rate 100.19 98.53 102.00 104.76 106.30 108.31 108.66 110.57 114.05 109.31 109.43 110.61 111.67 112.66 113.83 115.67 117.82 119.65 121.73 121.39 121.24 26.5 1 MRV = Most Recent Value. 2 MSCI Indices for Asia, Africa, and Europe and C. Asia, for 2008 are calculated from February-December, due to data availability. 3 Change expressed in levels for interest rates and spreads; percent change for stock market and exchange rates. Commodity Prices 2013 2014 2014 MRV Chg since 2010 2011 2012 2013 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Sep-12 '08 3 1 Oil price, $/b, nominal 79 104 105 104 105 104 106 100 75 108 105 100 96 86 77 61 47 55 53 57 61 -37.1 2 Non - Oil Index .. 97 87 80 76 76 78 74 71 77 76 75 72 71 72 70 67 66 64 64 65 .. 3 Metals and Minerals Index 103 117 99 94 92 88 87 89 83 87 90 90 87 84 84 80 75 74 73 73 75 -28.1 Baltic Dry Index 4 2755 1545 916 1215 1876 1375 980 954 1105 912 796 944 1123 1101 1332 881 727 539 576 591 606 -87.4 1 Simple average of Brent, Dubai and WTI. 2 Base Date = Jan 3, 2011 due to data availability. The Index component combination in the Weekly tables differs from that of the Pink Sheet. 3 Base Date = Jan 4, 2010 due to data availability. The Index component combination in the Weekly tables differs from that of the Pink Sheet. 4 Base Date = May 1, 1985 Produced by DECPG (Trang Nguyen, Gerard Kambou and Xinghao Gong). Number 264 | May 22, 2015