The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Strengthening Institutional Capacity for Government Effectiveness Project (P149176) Strengthening Institutional Capacity for Government Effectiveness Project (P149176) AFRICA | Burundi | Governance Global Practice | IBRD/IDA | Investment Project Financing | FY 2015 | Seq No: 9 | ARCHIVED on 18-Feb-2020 | ISR40205 | Implementing Agencies: Government of Burundi, MINISTRY OF FINANCE Key Dates Key Project Dates Bank Approval Date: 22-Apr-2015 Effectiveness Date: 19-Aug-2016 Planned Mid Term Review Date: 08-Mar-2019 Actual Mid-Term Review Date: 08-Mar-2019 Original Closing Date: 31-Dec-2020 Revised Closing Date: 31-Dec-2021 pdoTable Project Development Objectives Project Development Objective (from Project Appraisal Document) The Project Development Objective (PDO) is: to strengthen government institutional capacity to improve fiscal management. This objective will be achieved by supporting government efforts to mobilize domestic revenue, improve public expenditure management and controls, produce timely statistics for policy making, and improve mining sector regulatory capacity and practices. Has the Project Development Objective been changed since Board Approval of the Project Objective? No Components Table Name Component 1: Modernizing Revenue Policy and Administration:(Cost $6.20 M) Component 2: Strengthening Public Expenditure Management and Control; Project Management:(Cost $8.90 M) Component 3: Improving ISTEEBU’s Institutional Capacity:(Cost $3.30 M) Component 4: Improving Mining Regulatory Capacity and Practices:(Cost $3.60 M) Overall Ratings Name Previous Rating Current Rating Progress towards achievement of PDO Moderately Unsatisfactory Moderately Unsatisfactory Overall Implementation Progress (IP) Moderately Unsatisfactory Moderately Unsatisfactory Overall Risk Rating Substantial Substantial Implementation Status and Key Decisions The Burundi Strengthening Institutional Capacity for Government Effectiveness project (PRCIEG) aims to strengthen government institutional capacity to improve fiscal management. This objective will be achieved by supporting government efforts to mobilize domestic revenue, improve public expenditure management and controls, produce timely statistics for policy making, and improve mining sector regulatory capacity and practices. The Project Development Objective (PDO) is still relevant but the project is being restructured in light of lack of overall satisfactory progress and a changing environment less conducive to ambitious PFM reforms. The project's restructuring has two main objectives: i) revising and setting a realistic result framework more aligned with current PFM reform needs; (ii) revising the project components to focus on more critical activities with high impact on the PDO and achievable before the project closure date. 2/18/2020 Page 1 of 11 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Strengthening Institutional Capacity for Government Effectiveness Project (P149176) Under Component 1 (Modernizing Revenue Policy and Administration), a number of the activities have been executed to date including the preparation of a draft Medium-Term Fiscal Action Plan, the updating of the MACMOD system by including a fiscal module, and the development of a draft report of the fiscal policy strategy. On tax administration, supported activities have included support to the Revenue Authority (Office Burundais des Recettes) to carry out an institutional assessment, the development of internal and tax audit staff capacity including capacity on risk- based audits and the equipping of regional OBR offices with ICT infrastructure. Under Component 2 (Strengthening Public Expenditure Management and Control), program-based budgeting has not been implemented as the prerequisites are not in place. With regard to the project's support to the Court of Auditors, the Cour des Comptes was able to finalize the audit of the state accounts for the 2015 financial year and will gradually catch up on remaining audits as soon as it is in possession of the accounts. The National Accountancy Body has been receiving technical assistance from two Kenyan bodies to prepare its adhesion to the International Federation of Accountants (IFAC). Under Component 3 (Improving ISTEEBU’s Institutional Capacity), the production and dissemination of statistics has been supported including the production of various indices for the analysis of economic trends and the strengthening of the national accounts. This component is being reinforced by adding the conduct of the Integrated Household Living Condition Survey which was last conducted in 2014. Under component 4 (Improving Mining Regulatory Capacity and Practices), a number of activities were completed including the functional review of the Ministry in charge of mining and its related agencies, the adoption of measures to merge various mining-related entities under one structure and the review of key legislation. Moving forward, the project will focus on the completion of relevant and achievable targets on which there has been progress including the development of a mining database and the finalization of the regulations for Artisanal and Small-Scale Mining (ASM). Risks Systematic Operations Risk-rating Tool Risk Category Rating at Approval Previous Rating Current Rating Political and Governance Substantial High High Macroeconomic Substantial High High Sector Strategies and Policies Moderate Substantial Substantial Technical Design of Project or Program Substantial Substantial Substantial Institutional Capacity for Implementation and High High High Sustainability Fiduciary Substantial Substantial Substantial Environment and Social Moderate Moderate Moderate Stakeholders Moderate Moderate Moderate Other -- -- -- Overall Substantial Substantial Substantial Results PDO Indicators by Objectives / Outcomes 2/18/2020 Page 2 of 11 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Strengthening Institutional Capacity for Government Effectiveness Project (P149176) Modernizing Revenue Policy and Administration IN00791576 ►Improved predictability of tax policy (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 93.40 115.52 101.60 95.00 Date 01-Jan-2013 31-Dec-2018 31-Dec-2019 31-Dec-2021 This indicator measures the actual aggregate revenue out-turn compared to the original approved budget, Comments: as a proxy for predictability of tax policy. This is an annual indicator, linked to the PEFA indicator PI-3 Strengthening Public Expenditure Management and Control IN00791577 ►Program-based budgets attached to the Finance Law and defended by sector ministries in the Parliament (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.00 Date 01-Jan-2015 31-Dec-2018 31-Dec-2018 31-Dec-2021 To be dropped. The implementation of Program Based Budgeting is a complex and long-term undertaking, requiring some pre-requisites such as a credible medium-term planning and adequate Comments: information management systems which are lacking. Improving ISTEEBU's Institutional Capacity IN00791485 ►Improved production of timely and reliable statistics (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 5.00 8.00 8.00 20.00 Date 01-Jan-2015 31-Dec-2018 31-Dec-2018 31-Dec-2021 The indicator will be revised to focus on the regular production of statistics and the timeliness of their release as mechanisms to assess the reliability of the majority of the statistics being produced are not available. Moving forward, this indicator will be reported as a percentage (statistics published in a timely Comments: fashion per the publication deadlines defined in the ISTEEBU business program vs the overall number that are produced which is estimated at 66.2% in 2019). Improving Mining Regulatory Capacity and Practices IN00791484 ►Improved management and regulatory framework in the mining sector (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value No Yes Yes Yes 2/18/2020 Page 3 of 11 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Strengthening Institutional Capacity for Government Effectiveness Project (P149176) Date 01-Jan-2015 31-Dec-2018 31-Dec-2019 31-Dec-2021 This indicator measures improved governance in the mining sector through a series of revised milestones: Year 1: Functional review of the Ministry in charge of mining and its related agencies (completed) ;Year 2: Mining website for the Ministry of Energy and Mines operational (completed); Year 3: Adoption of measure to merge various mining-related entities under one structure based on the functional review (completed); Comments: Year 4: National database on mining established, and accessible to relevant staff within Office Burundais des Mines (OBM); Year 5: ASM regulations finalized by Ministry and transmitted to the Council of Ministers/Cabinet. Overall Comments PDO Under the restructuring, three PDO indicators are proposed for revision and one remains unchanged. The proposed changes to the IRIs aim at streamlining them (from 16 IRIs) and enhancing their relevance toward the achievement of the PDO (which also includes removing those that were impractical to measure or were duplicates). As a result, 8 IRIs would be dropped, 3 revised, 5 unchanged, and 2 newly created for a total of 10 IRIs. Intermediate Results Indicators by Components Component 1: Modernizing Revenue Policy and Administration IN00791578 ►Tax policy measures backed by ex-ante impact analysis (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 50.00 Date 01-Jan-2015 31-Dec-2018 31-Dec-2018 31-Dec-2021 To be dropped. Limitations in available data (both quality and quantity), the current budget preparation environment (time available between revenue policy conceptualization, discussion and enactment into budget law), plus staff capacity, make it not conducive to carrying out ex-ante impact analysis for new tax Comments: policy measures. The Project is however supporting the government in developing its capacity for such types of analyses. IN00791588 ►New tax policy measures implemented after a minimum of six months from the date of announcement to taxpayers (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 50.00 Date 01-Jan-2015 31-Dec-2018 31-Dec-2018 31-Dec-2021 To be dropped. The indicator measurement is subject to qualitative analysis and some tax policies measures are implemented partially and unevenly. The project does not support actions influencing the Comments: IRI, hence attributability is low. These challenges limit the value added of the indicator and render difficult its tracking. IN00791589 ►Increased taxpayer compliance (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target 2/18/2020 Page 4 of 11 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Strengthening Institutional Capacity for Government Effectiveness Project (P149176) Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Date 31-Dec-2014 31-Dec-2018 31-Dec-2018 31-Dec-2021 This indicator measures the share of taxpayers filing taxes on time compared to total taxpayers on the register, by taxpayer category (LTO = Large Tax Operators; MTO = Medium Tax Operators; SMO = Small Comments: Tax Operators) (Baseline: 2014). OBR reports 99 .2% compliance among LTOs in 2019 against a target of 98.5%. Data for MTOs and SMOs for 2019 need to be verified for reporting. IN00791594 Large Tax Operators (Percentage, Custom Breakdown) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 99.00 99.80 99.20 99.50 Date 01-Jul-2014 31-Dec-2018 31-Dec-2019 31-Dec-2021 IN00791597 Medium Tax Operators (Percentage, Custom Breakdown) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 83.00 93.10 93.10 97.00 Date 01-Jul-2014 31-Dec-2018 31-Dec-2018 31-Dec-2021 IN00791600 Small Tax Operators (Percentage, Custom Breakdown) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 60.00 90.10 90.10 95.00 Date 01-Jul-2014 31-Dec-2018 31-Dec-2018 31-Dec-2021 IN00791602 ►Domestic tax revenue collected outside Bujumbura urban, out of the total domestic revenue collected in a given year (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.80 4.20 2.40 2.50 Date 01-Jan-2014 31-Dec-2018 31-Dec-2019 30-Dec-2021 2.4% in 2019 against a target of 2%. Comments: IN00791603 ►Audit Completion Ratio (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 46.00 93.40 79.40 80.00 Date 01-Jan-2015 31-Dec-2018 31-Dec-2019 31-Dec-2021 79.4% achieved in 2019 against a target of 65% for that year. Comments: 2/18/2020 Page 5 of 11 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Strengthening Institutional Capacity for Government Effectiveness Project (P149176) Component 2: Strengthening Public Expenditure Management and Control; Project Management IN00791581 ►Reduction in the time reported to process budget requests at each stage of the expenditure chains (quarterly average) (Days, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 5.00 0.00 0.00 5.00 Date 31-Dec-2014 31-Dec-2017 31-Dec-2017 31-Dec-2021 To be dropped. The indicator aims at measuring the efficiency the public expenditures chain and requires a robust information management system with timeline tracking module. The actual stage of the IFMIS requires to invest in fixing the basics first as is being done and in a later stage adapt the system to track Comments: the timeline. As a result, it has not been possible to measure the indicator since the project’s start, nor will it be in the medium term. IN00791582 Verification (VF) (Days, Custom Breakdown) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 15.00 4.00 4.00 2.00 Date 31-Dec-2014 30-Dec-2017 30-Dec-2017 31-Dec-2021 IN00791585 Budget Commitment (BC) (Days, Custom Breakdown) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 27.00 5.00 5.00 2.00 Date 31-Dec-2014 30-Dec-2017 30-Dec-2017 31-Dec-2021 IN00791590 Legal Commitment (LC) (Days, Custom Breakdown) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 27.00 5.00 5.00 2.00 Date 31-Dec-2014 30-Dec-2017 30-Dec-2017 31-Dec-2021 IN00791592 Authorization (AT) (Days, Custom Breakdown) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 12.00 7.00 7.00 1.00 Date 31-Dec-2014 30-Dec-2017 30-Dec-2017 31-Dec-2021 IN00791596 Disbursement (DE) (Days, Custom Breakdown) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 5.00 3.00 3.00 2.00 Date 31-Dec-2014 30-Dec-2017 30-Dec-2017 31-Dec-2021 2/18/2020 Page 6 of 11 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Strengthening Institutional Capacity for Government Effectiveness Project (P149176) IN00791599 Payment (PA) (Days, Custom Breakdown) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 12.00 9.00 9.00 5.00 Date 31-Dec-2014 30-Dec-2017 30-Dec-2017 31-Dec-2021 IN00791601 ►Number of beneficiaries of training courses on budget program, of which at least 80 % pass the final test/get the certificate. (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 120.00 Date 01-Jan-2015 31-Dec-2018 31-Dec-2018 31-Dec-2021 To be dropped. The budget program was abandoned as pre-requisites are not in place and could not be realistically set within the project remaining implementation timeframe. Hence, the related training is Comments: dropped. IN00791604 Number of beneficiaries of training courses on budget program, of which at least 80 % pass the final test/get the certificate. (Percentage, Custom Supplement) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 96.00 IN00791605 ►Number of audits produced by Court of Auditors conforming to International Standards of Supreme Audit Institutions (ISSAI) (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 13.00 Date 01-Jan-2015 31-Dec-2018 31-Dec-2018 31-Dec-2021 The target of 185 was inadequately set as it includes some SAI special engagements which are not audit related. The new target of 13 is related to audit reports produced (cumulative) and has been defined to include 3 State accounts in 2020 (2016, 2017 and first 6 months of 2018) and 2 in 2021 (2018-2019, 2019-2020), 3 municipalities annually including Bujumbura and at least 1 State-Owned Enterprise Comments: annually (for a total of 7 audit reports in 2020 and 6 additional in 2021). Compliance will be assessed based on the audit reports transmission to Parliament. Component 3: Improving ISTEEBU’s Institutional Capacity IN00791579 ►National statistics published as per the original targets set in the annual ISTEEBU corporate program (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 67.90 67.90 75.00 Date 01-Jan-2015 31-Dec-2018 31-Dec-2018 31-Dec-2021 Comments: This IRI will be dropped through the restructuring as it now duplicates the PDO 3 as revised. 2/18/2020 Page 7 of 11 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Strengthening Institutional Capacity for Government Effectiveness Project (P149176) IN00791583 ►Performance appraisal system and evaluation mechanisms developed and implemented for all technical employees at ISTEEBU (Yes/No, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value No No No Yes Date 01-Jan-2015 30-Dec-2017 30-Dec-2017 31-Dec-2021 To be dropped. The system was already developed but its implementation has financial implications and Comments: requires an increased national budget allocation to ISTEEBU which the project could not influence. IN00791586 ►Number of ISTEEBU staff trained and evaluated with satisfaction in design and analysis of statistics products, of which at least 25% should be women (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 101.00 130.00 120.00 Date 01-Jan-2015 31-Dec-2018 31-Dec-2019 31-Dec-2021 The project surpassed the target in 2019 (130 staff trained and evaluated with satisfaction vs a cumulative Comments: target of 88 for that year, with 26.9% of them women). IN00791591 Number of ISTEEBU staff trained and evaluated with satisfaction in design and analysis of statistics products, of which at least 25% should be women (Number, Custom Breakdown) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 101.00 130.00 120.00 Date 01-Jan-2015 31-Dec-2018 31-Dec-2019 31-Dec-2021 IN00791593 Number of ISTEEBU staff trained and evaluated with satisfaction in design and analysis of statistics products, of which at least 25% should be women (Percentage, Custom Supplement) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 21.60 26.90 25.00 IN00791595 ►Statistics products publicly available to users through Accelerated DataProgram and ISTEEBU website (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 25.00 0.00 0.00 80.00 Date 01-Jan-2015 31-Dec-2018 31-Dec-2018 31-Dec-2021 To be dropped through the restructuring as the indicator partially duplicates with the revised PDO 3 on the Comments: publication of statistical products. IN00791598 ►Beneficiaries satisfied with quality of services provided by ISTEEBU (Percentage, Custom) 2/18/2020 Page 8 of 11 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Strengthening Institutional Capacity for Government Effectiveness Project (P149176) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 22.70 0.00 52.10 55.00 Date 01-Jan-2015 31-Dec-2018 31-Dec-2018 31-Dec-2021 The survey conducted in 2018 (to cover 2017) reports a beneficiary satisfaction rate of 52.1% (vs a target of 45% for that year). The beneficiary survey to cover the services and products offered by ISTEEBU in Comments: 2018 needs to be conducted. Component 4: Improving Mining Regulatory Capacity and Practices IN00791580 ►Percentage of ASM mines inspected on a quarterly basis according to mining regulations which don't respect mining regulations (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 70.00 36.40 36.40 10.00 Date 01-Jan-2015 31-Dec-2018 31-Dec-2018 31-Dec-2021 The regulations do not require quarterly inspection. As a result, the timeline was revised, and the indicator will be monitored on the basis of the annual target agreed. 57 sites were reported as having been Comments: inspected since July 2018. IN00791584 ►Percentage of total remedial actions taken within 6 months from inspection reports deemed satisfactorily addressed (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 5.00 0.00 0.00 50.00 Date 01-Jan-2015 31-Dec-2018 31-Dec-2018 31-Dec-2021 To be dropped as the indicator partially duplicates with IRI.4.1 on the Percentage of ASM mines inspected according to mining regulations and mine inspection files that are non-compliant with the mining Comments: regulations and mine inspection files. IRI 4.1, by tracking the reduction in non-compliant ASM mining sites would already indicate that remedial actions have been taken in order to reach the targets. IN00791587 ►Mineral production and taxation revenues database monthly updates completed and made available to the public (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.00 Date 01-Jan-2015 31-Dec-2018 31-Dec-2018 31-Dec-2021 This indicator is revised through the restructuring to better align it with the newly revised corresponding milestone for the PDO indicator. The proposed revised indicator would be: Comments: Basic mining data (on number of mine sites with permits, number of active miners active per site, number of cooperatives, production per mineral, and revenues exported) to be inputted to national database and updated on a semi-annual basis. The indicator would measure the number of updates per year 2/18/2020 Page 9 of 11 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Strengthening Institutional Capacity for Government Effectiveness Project (P149176) Data on Financial Performance Disbursements (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Currency Original Revised Cancelled Disbursed Undisbursed % Disbursed P149176 IDA-D0490 Effective USD 22.00 22.00 0.00 12.32 9.41 57% Key Dates (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Approval Date Signing Date Effectiveness Date Orig. Closing Date Rev. Closing Date P149176 IDA-D0490 Effective 22-Apr-2015 01-Apr-2016 19-Aug-2016 31-Dec-2020 31-Dec-2021 Cumulative Disbursements Restructuring History Level 2 Approved on 24-Feb-2017 Related Project(s) There are no related projects. 2/18/2020 Page 10 of 11 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Strengthening Institutional Capacity for Government Effectiveness Project (P149176) 2/18/2020 Page 11 of 11