AFRICA REGION Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development Africa Climate Business Plan Third Implementation Report & Foreword Look Executive Summary November 2018 © Copyright 2018 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/ The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington, D.C. 20433 www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of the World Bank with external contributions. The views, findings and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. This work may be reproduced for the dissemination of knowledge, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given. Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street, WA DC., 20433 Attribution: Please cite the work as follows: 2018: Accelerating Climate Resilient and Low Carbon Development: The Africa Climate Business Plan – Third Implementation Progress Report and Forward Look. World Bank, Washington DC. e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org AFRICA REGION Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development Africa Climate Business Plan Third Implementation Report & Foreword Look Executive Summary November 2018 Acknowledgments This executive summary is based on the progress report prepared by a team led by Kanta Kumari Rigaud (Lead Environment Specialist and the Africa Region Climate Change Coordinator). The core team comprised of Manuela Ravina da Silva (Junior Professional Officer), Anushree Shetty (Consultant) and Tao Wang (Senior Operations Officer). The report was produced under the overall strategic guidance of Thomas O’Brien (Senior Adviser, Africa Region Vice President Office), and direction of Benoit Bosquet (Director of Environment and Natural Resources) with guidance from Magda Lovei (Practice Manager, Environment and Natural Resources, Africa Region). The extended ACBP team, under the guidance of the Practice Managers, include the following focal points: Ademola Braimoh, Andrew Losos, Andrea Vermehren, Amina Coulibaly, Asmita Tiwari, Barend Jansen, Berengere P. C. Prince, Carolina Giovannelli, Cristin Moldovan, Cristina Marosan Ling, Jian Xie, Karin Teixeira Kaechele, Kenta Usui, Laura Bonzanigo, Margaret Arnold, Martijn Gert Jan Regelink, Mirko Ivo Serkovic, Monica Augustina, Monica Moldovan, Nathan Engle, Neeta Hooda, Opope Oyaka Tshivuila Matala, Peter Kristensen, Philippe Eric Dardel, Pierre Audinet, Prashant Singh, Tenin Fatimata Dicko, Varalakshmi Vemuru, and Veronique Morin. Colleagues from the Climate Change Group provided critical input for the portfolio analysis: Sundus Naeem Siddiqi, Tambi Matambo, Wardah Zaman, Yunziyi Lang, Viviane Clement, Adeel Abbas Syed, Ana Elisa Bucher, Andrew Zubiri, Anne T. Kuriakose Martin Vincenzo Roeck, Marius Kaiser, Laura Vanessa Altafulla Blanco, Laura McDonald Nathan Engle, Sohee Gu, Tania Abraham, Vaaruni Eashwar, and Yu Huan. Several other colleagues in the region provided timely input to the analysis: Andre Rodrigues Aquino, Cecil Nundwe, Dahlia Lotayef, Fernando Lavadenz, Jacqueline Marie Tront, Marie-Laure Lajaunie, Maria Angelica Sotomayor, Nabil Chaherli, Nicolas Perrin, Pablo Cesar Benitez, Richard Martin Humphreys, and Xiaofeng Li. Philippe Ambrosi reviewed the French translation. The team received expert advice from peer reviewers Genevieve Connors, Dena Ringold, Maria Ionata, Mustafa Zakir Hussain, Nabil M. Chaherli and Indira Konjhodzic. The process benefited from a joint retreat for the ACBP and Corporate climate commitments. Raffaello Cervigni and Dania Mosa kindly supported the transfer of data and information from the previous ACBP reports. Administrative support was received from Virginie Vaselopulos and Lantoharifera Ramiliarisoa. The report was edited by Nora Patricia FitzGerald and Studio Grafik managed the typesetting and production process. ii | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development Contents Acknowledgments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ii Abbreviations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . iv Foreword . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . v I. Portfolio-Level Progress . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 II. Progress of ACBP Components and Introduction of New Components . . . . . . . 5 III. ACBP Forward Look – Strategic Directions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 IV. Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 List of Tables and Figures Table 1: World Bank Projects Contributing to ACBP Implementation . . . . . . . . . 2 Figure 1: Annual Share of Co-financing with Climate Co-benefits for World Bank Financing in Sub-Saharan Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 Box 1: Lighting Up Low Income Communities across Sub-Saharan Africa . . . . . 4 Box 2: West Africa Coastal Area (WACA) Management Program . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 Box 3: Protection When Disaster Strikes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 Annex 1: Summary of ACBP Components’ Implementation Progress (FY16-18) and Introduction of New Components . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | iii Abbreviations All currency is in United States dollars ($) unless otherwise indicated. ACBP Africa Climate Business Plan IBRD International Bank for Reconstruction ACRIS Africa Climate Resilient Infrastructure Summit and Development AfDB African Development Bank ICC Interregional Coordination Center AFRI-RES Africa Climate-Resilient Investment Facility IGAD Intergovernmental Authority on Development ASA Advisory Services and Analytics IDA International Development Association AUC African Union Commission ILM Integrated Landscape Management BAU Business As Usual IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change CAFI Central African Forest Initiative LVEMP Lake Victoria Environment Cat-DDO Catastrophe Deferred Drawdown Option Management Program CDD Community-Driven Development LVTP Lake Victoria Transport Program CIWA Cooperation for International Waters in Africa MDTF Multi-Donor Trust Fund COREP Gulf of Guinea Regional Fisheries Commission NDC Nationally Determined Contribution CPF Country Partnership Frameworks PIDA Program for Infrastructure Development CREWS Climate Risk Early Warning System in Africa CRIP Climate Resilience Investment Plan PIDACC Integrated Development and Climate Change CRL Climate-Resilient Landscape Adaptation Program in the Niger Basin CSA Climate-Smart Agriculture PROFOR Program on Forests CSIP Climate-Smart Strategies and Investment Plan PV Photo-voltaic DRDIP Development Response to Displacement RECP Resource-Efficient and Cleaner Production Impacts Project REDD+ Reducing emissions from deforestation ECOWAS Economic Community of West African States and forest degradation ERPA Emission Reductions Payment Agreement REDISSE Western Africa Regional Disease ESMAP Energy Sector Management Assistance Program Surveillance Systems Enhancement EUR Euro ResIP Resilience Investment Project FY Fiscal Year SCD Systematic Country Diagnostic FCPF Forest Carbon Partnership Facility SDG Sustainable Development Goal FIP Forest Investment Program SOP Series of Projects FiTI Fisheries Transparency Initiative SSA Sub-Saharan Africa GCF Green Climate Fund SWIOFC Southwest Indian Ocean Fisheries Commission GEF Global Environment Facility TA Technical Assistance GEF LDCF Global Environment Facility Least Developed TerrAfrica NEPAD-led Sustainable Land & Water Countries’ Fund Management partnership in 30 African countries GFDRR Global Facility for Disaster Reduction UNECA United Nations Economic Commission and Recovery for Africa GHG Greenhouse Gases WBG World Bank Group HNP Health, Nutrition, and Population iv | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development Foreword We are pleased to share our latest Progress Report on the Africa Climate Business Plan (ACBP), the World Bank’s strategic effort to support African governments as they accelerate climate resilient and low carbon development. The good news? We are moving faster than targeted. Some 176 projects, with $17 billion in World Bank financing demonstrates the mobilization of resources ahead of our 2020 targets. The World Bank ACBP is supporting climate action across every sector. New coastal adaptation projects—such as the West Africa Coastal Areas (WACA) Management Program—will create sustainable livelihoods for marginalized communities already impacted by climate-influenced coastal erosion. Climate smart agriculture in Ethiopia, Niger and Zambia is increasing food security for the rural poor. Access to renewable energy is building resilience and boosting productivity with off-grid capacity for solar energy poised to transform rural livelihoods. But the urgency to step up action is loud and clear in the face of the latest information— that climate impacts are intensifying faster than anticipated, while action on the mitigation front has not been as vibrant. It is not lost on us that Africa has contributed the least to global warming, and yet the continent is already experiencing some of the most devastating impacts—from the frequency and length of droughts to unpredictable rainfall and increasing floods, to name a few. Climate change is pressing and we cannot afford to be complacent. So even as some of the ACBP goals have been met, the stakes are changing, and the ACBP is evolving to stay ahead of these risks. Working together with clients, partners, the private sector, regional organizations, and experts, we remain determined to deliver agile and robust support for climate action in the years to come. Hafez Ghanem World Bank Vice President for Africa Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | v A vendor in Cabo Verde sells her vegetables and fruit. vi | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development Africa Climate Business Plan Third Implementation Progress Report & Forward Look Executive Summary Sub-Saharan Africa’s (SSA) race to resilience just became more urgent with the release of the IPCC 1.5°C Special Report. The Africa region must adapt to the 0.5°C warming of the past 50 years, while at the same time prepare for the intensification of climate change impacts. The good news is that the region is not starting from zero; the bad news is that the current pace of climate action is far from adequate. The Africa Climate Business Plan (ACBP)1 has been a galvanizing platform for climate action since its launch in December 2015, yet it must be even more ambitious in the scale and pace of climate action in the face of a new urgency to manage climate risks and deliver on climate-resilient development. Highlights of the progress up to and including FY18 as well as the main outstanding challenges are summarized here. The report also highlights successful projects that can be replicated, key lessons learned, and reflects on future strategic directions. KEY HIGHLIGHTS i. Under the Africa Climate Business Plan, the World Bank has delivered 176 projects and $17 billion in IDA and IBRD financing for climate-resilient development in Sub-Saharan Africa, exceeding the Bank resource mobilization target set out for 2020.   ii. These investments are yielding positive outcomes on the ground through innovations in design and financing and generating critical lessons for transformation and scale-up. iii. Focusing primarily on strengthening, powering, and enabling resilience in African countries, the Africa Region registered climate co-benefits of 27% in 2018, exceeding the regional target of 22% and 2017’s results of 25%. iv. But the race to resilience is only getting harder: the current pace of climate action in Sub-Saharan Africa is far from sufficient, and the needs are ever more urgent as countries seek to step up on adaptation and prepare for the intensification of climate impacts. v. The World Bank is stepping up its engagement with countries on their Nationally Determined Contributions, and ensuring that climate action is mainstreamed into our Country Partnerships Frameworks and project pipelines. vi. Going forward, the ACBP proposes to intensify its action and engagement on climate adaptation and resilience in Sub-Saharan Africa to: 1) expedite mainstreaming of climate action for transformation at scale; 2) support scaled-up and transformational investments in key sectors, including climate smart health and education, to strengthen health systems and build skills for climate-resilient economies of the future; 3) harness innovation and technology such as satellite technology to leapfrog countries for climate resilience; and 4) raise climate finance and accelerate the mobilization of private sector investment, particularly for renewable energies. 1. http://www.worldbank.org/en/programs/africa-climate-business-plan Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | 1 I. Portfolio-Level Progress The ACBP and wider SSA regional portfolio are making progress in meeting targets of the Plan and corporate climate commitments. Resource mobilization • In FY18, significant progress was made with the approval of 68 projects by the World Bank Board with a Bank commitment of $8.21 billion. These projects cover a range of financing instruments, including investment projects, development policies and programs for results. Overall, between Financial Year (FY) 2016-18, a total of 176 projects and $17 billion of Bank financing has been delivered, which is twice the Bank’s 2020 resource mobilization target of $8.483 billion set out under the ACBP (Table 1). • Delivery of resources across all three clusters - strengthening resilience, powering resilience and enabling resilience – is well on track or ahead of schedule. Overall, adaptation financing reflects about two-thirds of the totals mobilized. • Delivery through financial flows directly handled by the Bank (i.e. IDA, IBRD, and some Trust Funds (GEF, GFDRR, carbon finance) is tracked systematically as the information is readily available through the World Bank’s reporting system. Due diligence in tracking the financing leveraged from other sources (such as bilateral agencies, additional multilateral development banks, and the private sector) needs improved monitoring moving forward. • The pipeline of investments continues to be strong. TABLE 1: World Bank Projects Contributing to ACBP Implementation Fiscal Semester end Cumulative Cumulative Resource mobilization Status Year number of projects commitments against target against ($ million) ($8.483 billion) target Board approved projects FY16 December 31, 2015 3 430.0 June 30, 2016 33 3,074.6 36 % FY17 December 31, 2016 53 4,360.7 June 30, 2017 108 8,779 25% 103 % FY18 December 31, 2017 131 11,148 June 30, 2018 176 16,997 200 % Preliminary projections based on pipeline FY19 December 31, 2019 269 25,964 50% June 30, 2019 320 32,277 FY20 December 2019 331 33,994 June 30, 2020 335 34,714 75% Note: Figures for the World Bank Board of Directors-approved projects up to June 30, 2108 (FY18) are final. Figures for the pipeline are estimates and subject to change. The volume of World Bank financing for ACBP projects includes IDA and IBRD (no Trust Funds (TF)). 2 | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development Climate co-benefits and other corporate commitments • Tracking of the climate mitigation and adaptation co-benefits for Bank financing of projects indicated a historical high of 27 percent for the Africa region in FY18, surpassing 25 percent in FY17, and higher than the region’s target of 22 percent. The region’s contribution to the Bank wide co-benefits is significant (Figure 1). One hundred percent of projects have been screened for climate and disaster risks. • Focused training on the full package of climate commitments—screening, co- benefits, GHG, and shadow price—at the Climate Change boot camps (in West and East Africa), and through customized face-to-face training, has increased awareness and capacities of staff and is yielding more effective design and delivery of climate action and co-benefits within investments and policy lending. FIGURE 1: Annual Share of Co-financing with Climate Co-benefits for World Bank Financing in Sub-Saharan Africa 18,000 35% 33% 16,000 30% Percentage Climate Co-Benefits (%) 14,000 27% 25% 25% 12,000 22% Million ($USD) 22% 10,000 20% 18% 8,000 15% 15% 6,000 10% 4,000 8% 7% 5% 2,000 0 0% FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 World Bank Climate Co-Benefits ($M) Africa Region Climate Co-Benefits ($M) Africa Region Climate World Bank Climate Africa Region Climate Co-benefits (%) Co-benefits (%) Co-benefit target (%) Upstream and downstream climate integration The World Bank Group’s upstream country engagement model consists of: 1. Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) which assesses constraints and the steps each country needs to take to achieve the Bank’s twin goals of poverty reduction and shared prosperity; and 2. Country Partnership Framework (CPF) which lays out the Bank Group’s program of support to a country, typically over a five-year period. Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | 3 Overall, good upstream strategic integration of climate change risks and opportunities was achieved in the ten SCDs and three CPFs in FY18. More specifically: • Climate is increasingly embedded into more than just the natural resource management focus areas in CPFs; and one CPF (Tanzania) even included an indicator to track climate co-benefits at the country level. • Both CPFs and SCDs reflect increased linkages with countries Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) submitted under the Paris Agreement – going beyond strategic alignment to address sectoral and multi-sectoral connections, as well as links with the NDC results framework (e.g. Guinea). • Similarly, downstream the ACBP investments increasingly support the implementation of NDCs through 49 investment projects, with links ranging from strategic alignment to design features of projects, to tracking delivery through results frameworks (e.g. Western Africa Regional Disease Surveillance Systems Enhancement (REDISSE) Phase II, $147 million). • The Bank is working directly with eight client countries on their NDCs—on adaptation, mitigation and cross-cutting issues. It is currently supporting Uganda, the first African country to have an NDC Partnership Plan, on systemic shifts to institutionalize change at scale by embedding climate budget tagging and climate risk screening into national processes. Resilience capacity enhancement • An analysis of the ACBP portfolio reveals that projects are increasing core resilience capacities (86 percent adaptive, 65 percent absorptive, and 20 percent transformative) through their interventions. Well-designed projects bolster the multiple pathways (e.g., through the Niger Climate Smart Agriculture project and the Kenya Agriculture and Rural Inclusive Growth project) to build these capacities by embedding concrete resilience attributes (e.g. robustness, preparedness, redundancy). Box 1: Lighting Up Low Income Communities across Sub-Saharan Africa When Adwoa Adezawa, a young Ghanaian fishmonger, was asked in 2016 about what would help her the most, she said basic community services—especially energy. She wanted light, so her children can read, and refrigeration, so she can sell more of her fish on the occasions when catch is plenty. Two years later, in the summer of 2018, more than 40 million people are meeting their basic energy needs through products provided with the support of the joint World Bank-IFC Lighting Africa program. This innovative and far-reaching effort was created just for low-income families like Adezawa’s, with the aim of providing off-grid solar lighting to 250 million people living without a grid connection in Sub-Saharan Africa in the next decade. Program activities now include support for the productive use of solar (e.g. solar irrigation and milling), community services (e.g. for schools and health centers), super-efficient household appliances (e.g. fans, TVs, household refrigeration), and innovative pay-as-you-go (PAYG) business models that enable rural, low income populations to access modern clean energy solutions. The Lighting Africa program has spread across the continent and across the globe - evolving into Lighting Global. Lighting Global is the World Bank Group’s initiative to rapidly increase access to off-grid solar energy for the one billion people living without grid electricity around the world. Access to electricity makes people better off—and better able to adapt to climate change. 4 | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development II. Progress of ACBP Components and Introduction of New Components The ACBP, conceived through an inclusive process, identified more than a dozen priority areas (business lines) for climate action supporting the three mutually reinforcing resilience clusters - strengthening resilience, powering resilience and enabling resilience. Annex 1 highlights the progress made since inception in support of each ACBP component­­ —through approved projects, analytical work, and advocacy. Strengthening resilience This cluster continues to see strong performance through IDA and IBRD resources. Several ACBP components have exceeded expectations—particularly Climate-smart agriculture, Integrated watershed management, Climate-smart cities, and Social protection in response to a growing demand for these investments. Social protection projects saw a five-fold increase in delivery, in part due to climate related impacts, and the need for increased resilience support. While there has been a strong delivery through the ACBP components, the accelerated pace of climate impacts requires stepping up financing and action. A sustained and upscaled focus on (existing) well-conceived and agreed plans should be prioritized. Equally, the call for anticipatory planning (e.g. in strategic multi-country river basins) coupled with more programmatic interventions must be heeded to prevent poor adaptation leading to increasingly vulnerable and marginalized communities. Opportunities for carbon sequestration through afforestation, reforestation, and land- use options in support of community resilience and ecosystems services are even more compelling as the global community pursues multiple strategies to reduce emissions. Investing in human and social capital focused on social resilience, including through health and education, can help families develop a sturdy social safety net to cope with the threats of climate impacts to their communities. Saint Louis, Senegal, must protect itself from erosion Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | 5 Powering resilience The Bank has provided direct financing and risk guarantees for a number of solar, hydro and geothermal power generation projects in this cluster, putting the Bank on track to achieve renewable energy target commitments in the ACBP. Key actors agree that Africa’s climate-smart development must include planning for a generation mix of fuels to optimize cost and efficiency, as well as to ensure that power utilities are financially viable enough to be creditworthy for private renewable power generation. Regional power interconnections can be strengthened to enable low-cost renewables. The Bank is supporting client governments in Africa to address these broader sector challenges. Enabling resilience This cluster, viewed as a composite of projects, knowledge generation and capacity building, has a critical role to strengthen overall delivery. Utilizing the Africa Climate- Resilient Investment Facility (AFRI-RES) and other knowledge platforms for analytics and capacity building (e.g. TERRAFRICA, CIWA, PROFOR, WACA Knowledge Platform) is critical to multiply these enabling gains and affect change at scale. Under the AFRI-RES facility, more than a dozen projects across the ACBP components (Agriculture, Transport, Water, Cities, and Energy) have received dedicated technical assistance to embed climate resilience into the design for shared learning and dissemination. Annex 1 also introduces the new ACBP components (Finance, Competitiveness and Innovation; Education; Health) and other areas (harnessing technology and strategic engagement on NDCs) where more attention is needed to help deliver concerted climate action in SSA. Box 2: West Africa Coastal Area (WACA) Management Program Before we had coconut trees,” said Amélé Effowe of Togo, one of a few residents clinging to a community being swallowed by the sea. “We could produce coconut oil. Coastal erosion took away our coconut trees.” It has also taken away their homes and livelihoods. But West African countries, supported by the World Bank and partners, governments are beginning to protect and manage West Africa’s coastal assets. The challenge is massive, requiring investment projects and a scale-up mechanism. The first West Africa Coastal Resilience Investment Project (WACA ResIP) was approved by the World Bank in April 2018. The financial package includes a credit of $190 million from the World Bank’s International Development Association (IDA), and a grant of $20.25 million from the Global Environment Facility. Already, the WACA program works with six countries (Benin, Côte d’Ivoire, Mauritania, Sao Tome and Principe, Senegal and Togo) and existing regional institutions. The Nordic Development Fund and France has since contributed additional resources, and others are expected to follow. The investment is urgent: Coastal erosion and flooding in West Africa severely threaten people’s communities, livelihoods, safety and infrastructure. Another innovation is the recently launched WACA platform, which is already mobilizing public, private and civil society partners to scale up knowledge and crowd in finance for these countries to maximize their resilience. 6 | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development Box 3: Protection When Disaster Strikes Evidence shows that climate change hampers efforts to boost people out of poverty. The $200 million Disaster Risk Management Development Policy Financing with Catastrophe Deferred Drawdown Option (Cat DDO) is providing Kenya with rapid access to funding in the event of a disaster or public health emergency, while supporting key reforms that strengthen the country’s ability to manage the impacts of disasters on the economy and the most vulnerable. This project will support the government’s proactive efforts to manage disaster and climate risks with a comprehensive program of reforms that will minimize the burden of economic recovery for Kenya. The Cat DDO will also support improvements in building the regulatory environment within Kenyan cities. Key Challenges Knowledge gaps, capacity and resource constraints continue to be pressing issues for several of the SSA countries. Some key challenges that are emerging across the portfolio include: • Need for more transformational responses to support deep, systemic shifts (e.g. CSA technologies and practices; addressing drivers of migration) in addition to incremental, sequential interventions to address current climate impacts. • Financing to deepen engagement and sustain momentum of climate action (e.g. REDD+, ERPAs, scaling up off-grid electrification technologies; hydromet programs in countries). • Need for rural finance to support rural communities and test innovative mechanisms to crowd in private investment. • Increased access to innovative technology including remote sensing and geo-spatial capabilities and data science, for managing and monitoring natural systems (e.g. river basins, agricultural areas, forest systems). • Need for upstream analysis to systematically embed climate resilience into sectoral (e.g. transport systems) and multi-sectoral contexts (e.g. climate smart cities). A worker at a new electrical grid in Zambia Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | 7 Highlights and Success Stories The ACBP portfolio has numerous success stories illustrating delivery at the policy, program, and project levels. These investments yield positive outcomes on the ground through innovations in design and financing. Many of these are ripe for scale up and replication. Some illustrative examples include: • The Cashew Value Chain Competitiveness Project in Cote d’Ivoire will directly benefit 225,000 farmers, cashew processors and traders, as well as rural youth through direct employment while generating the multiple benefits of climate smart agriculture. • As Madagascar prepares for the signing of an Emissions Reduction Payment Agreement, the government’s efforts to establish an inclusive and nationally owned forest monitoring system, comprising NGOs, university and research teams and government ministries, is exemplary and replicable. • Mozambique’s Integrated Landscape Management Portfolio (ILM) is maximizing finance for development through mobilizing commercial resources for agriculture and forest value chains, leveraging private equity for protected area management and promoting partnerships between the private sector and communities. • The Lake Victoria Transport Project and the Lake Victoria Environmental Management projects are coordinating management of climate and environmental risks to and from transport development and to support resilient rural livelihood development through both sustainable natural resources management and improved The Senegal Saint Louis Emergency Recovery and Resilience Project is seeking to reduce the vulnerability of populations to coastal hazards—including floods that have already reached inside schools and homes-- and strengthen urban and coastal resilience planning of the city of Saint-Louis. • The Integrated Feeder Roads Development project in Mozambique aims to increase access to roads in the areas where the rural poor live in relative isolation, reflecting the importance of climate mainstreaming to generate multiplier benefits to the economy and people. • The $225 million West Africa Coastal Areas (WACA) investment Program supports six countries and four regional institutions as they reduce climate risks, and is already benefiting from the WACA Platform which will mobilize public, private and civil society partners for scaling up knowledge and finance. • The Nachtigal Hydropower Project in Cameroon is not only crowding in private capital and reducing public debt but also lowering the overall costs of service for electricity as the country starts meeting its energy demand through renewable sources. • Global Solar Power and Global Wind Atlases completed in 2017 are providing quick and easy access for potential project sites to support renewable energy investments. • The Kenya Catastrophic Disaster Drawdown Option put in place key reforms to strengthen the country’s ability to manage disaster and climate risks, with provision for rapid access to funds in the event of disasters. • The ACPB has a pipeline of 1.6GW of directly financed renewable electricity 8 | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development Scaled-up and robust action through stepped-up financing and the replication of successful projects are urgent priorities. In several cases, the ACBP support has led to the development of dedicated investment plans and bankable projects. These include the Climate Smart Agriculture Investment Plans (in Zambia, Mali, Cote d’Ivoire, Lesotho, and Zimbabwe); the Strategic Programs for Climate Resilience (Malawi, Uganda, Rwanda) under the Pilot Program for Climate Resilience; large-scale programs for performance-based payments for REDD+ and enhanced carbon stocks in 10 countries; the Niger Climate Resilient Investment Plan, and the Strategic Plan for the Zambezi River Basin. These natural ecosystems deliver livelihoods and food security for more than 70 percent of the region’s population and continue to demand significant attention. Lessons Learned Lessons are emerging on how best to embed climate resilience and ensure that investments continue to provide durable and sustainable outcomes. Some key lessons are summarized here.: 1. Dedicated technical assistance for specialized information and technology. This includes a need for access to geospatial information and data analysis to support policy makers and decision making; to move from reactive to proactive business models on climate-resilient and low-carbon transport emphasizing transformative core technical work on decarbonization; identification of opportunities for Maritime Spatial Planning (MSP); on design of social protection interventions, and upstream analysis of transitions to cities for climate resilient buildings, infrastructure and services. 2. Enhanced capacity and development of skills and strategies to advance the work on climate risk management. Examples include capacities to pioneer and advance green competitiveness and innovation for investments to protect industries against climate impacts; to address climate change in the health sector and as a cross- cutting sector issue in other sectors; to promote market system approaches and mobilize private sector resources for agricultural development; and to leverage financing to deepen engagement and implementation of large-scale REDD+ performance-based programs. 3. Build knowledge by developing a better understanding of the climate- development nexus. These include linkages of climate factors with financial sectors through research, data collection, and dissemination workshops; financing climate-smart infrastructure and integrating information on climate change issues; and embedding climate change in education curriculum and teacher training; monitoring impacts of climate induced migration and addressing the need for mobility as an adaptation strategy. 4. Need for systematic and systemic support for climate action to be institutionalized. This will lead to mainstreaming of climate into planning at all levels, including through policy reforms for improvements in the form and function of African cities; shifts to climate resilient buildings and stronger building regulations; and support for strengthening of regional power interconnections to enable low-cost renewables. Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | 9 III. ACBP Forward Look – Strategic Directions Several recent World Bank studies have underscored the adverse impacts from climate change on ecosystems, livelihoods and people in Sub-Saharan Africa: • Changing Wealth of Nations notes that some low-income countries—especially in Sub-Saharan Africa—saw a decline in per capita forest and agricultural land wealth. Degradation of natural resources coupled with the mounting evidence of impacts of climate change—on water, drylands, cities, agriculture, and migration—will have grave consequences on Africa’s development. • Uncharted Water presents evidence on how the impacts of water scarcity and drought may be even greater than previously projected, causing long-term, intergenerational harm in ways that have previously been ignored or inadequately documented. For example, the study reveals that children born during severe droughts in rural Africa suffer adverse health effects throughout their lives with direct consequences for their offspring, who are much more likely to suffer from malnutrition as well. • Groundswell: Preparing for Internal Climate Migration report projects that, by 2050, the number of climate migrants in Sub Saharan Africa could reach up to 86 million under the pessimistic reference scenario; and the region will see an emergence of “hotspots” of climate in- and climate out-migration as a consequence of lower water availability, loss in crop productivity, and rising sea level and storm surges. Climate change impacts will interact in multiple and complex ways with other megatrends unfolding in the region. • By 2050, Africa will account for the highest population growth with an additional 1.3 billion people living on the continent, representing just over half of the added global population (UN, 2017). The economic growth in African countries is driven by a surging population, increasing levels of education, and technology absorption. Whether Africa’s demographic surge is a dividend or disaster depends on how governments harness key factors, including the potential of youth and the participation of women in the labor force. Sectors like agriculture, which have traditionally absorbed the working population, will be increasingly challenged in the face of climate change. • In Africa, the proportion of undernourished children and those suffering from moderate and severe stunting is projected to increase with climate change, with the most significant increase of 31-55 percent for severe stunting. • The power demand will increase to more than 3,100 TWh by 2040; corresponding transport volumes will increase 6 to 8 times, with a particularly strong increase of up to 14 times for some landlocked countries; water needs will push some river basins—including the Nile, Niger, Orange, and Volta basins—to the ecological brink; information and communications technology (ICT) demand will swell by a factor of 20 before 2020 as Africa catches up with broadband. • Hydropower capacity is planned to increase by a factor of six, and the irrigated area by 60 percent—but up to 700 percent in some basins (African Union et al. 2012). • Africa’s Cities: Opening Doors to the World (World Bank, 2017) states that with increasing urbanization, the population of urban areas will double over the next 25 years, from 472 million people, to nearly one billion, as more migrants are pushed or drawn to Africa’s cities from the countryside. Climate action through the ACBP must consider the challenges and opportunities presented by this larger context to support SSA countries in meeting their SDGs through strategies that are low-carbon and climate-resilient. This holistic approach will guard against maladaptation or a lock-in to inflexible adaptation options, while ensuring that adoption of low-carbon pathways help countries leapfrog toward climate resilient sustainable development. Building resilience will require a package of interventions— incremental, sequential and transformational—that respond to the uncertainties in which climate impacts may play out in local and regional contexts. 10 | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development Anticipatory and proactive strategies are critical to ensure that Africa is prepared for the overarching challenge that climate change will pose to economies in the region. Investments in human capital—as an aggregation of education, skills, and health accumulated over lifetimes—must be cognizant of climate impacts which can undermine the gains across sectors and the economy at large, and over generations. Long-lived infrastructure designed to standards that withstand climate impacts and ensure delivery of services is critical for securing and sustaining resilience for the economies and communities at large. The region must harness technology as an area of growth and opportunity. While still below the global average of 65 percent, mobile subscriber penetration in Sub-Saharan Africa stood at 44 percent (444 million) by the end of 2017 and is expected to rise to 52 percent by 2050 (World Bank et al. 2012). The ACBP, now in its third year of implementation, has proven itself to be a robust platform to fortify and galvanize climate action and to chart the future road map. Building on the challenges, achievements and lessons learned, the ACBP must focus on deepening engagement and support for transformational and scaled-up climate action in SSA countries. The four new ACBP components address some of the challenges and opportunities to further accelerate climate action. These include a focus on (i) strategic and systematic engagement through NDCs to mainstream and institutional climate into national processes; (ii) health and education as foundational platforms to deliver human capital that is healthy and well skilled to address and counter climate impacts. (iii) green financial systems to mainstream climate risks into policies and regulations, standards and frameworks governing the financial sector and improve financial protection against climate-related risks and promote green competitiveness; and (iv) harnessing satellite technology for climate resilience as a form of disruptive technology to help countries leapfrog into resilience through innovative applications in specific investments and through dedicated capacity building. Going forward, the ACBP is designed to consolidate and intensify action and engagement on climate adaptation and resilience in Sub-Saharan Africa through these emerging strategic directions: 1. Strategic and systemic country engagement for NDCs • Expediting institutionalization of climate action for transformation at scale— across sectors and geographies by working in partnership with countries, regional organizations, and international experts. 2. Scaled-up and transformational investments in key sectors and areas • Sustained and upscaled focus on climate smart agriculture and landscapes, powering resilience through renewables, climate-smart cities and transport systems—including through existing well-conceived and agreed investment plans. • Investing in human and social capital focused on health, education and social resilience to short-circuit the intergenerational spiral downward worsened by climate change impacts. • Mobilizing the private sector to boost value chains and access to (energy) markets while harnessing momentum for Maximizing Finance for Development. 3. Harnessing innovation, technology, and knowledge to drive resilience • Mobilizing innovation and technology that supports environments conducive to green growth; and mobilizing disruptive technology such as satellite technology applications to leapfrog countries toward climate resilience. • Fostering platforms for climate knowledge and exchange. Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | 11 4. Raising climate finance and mobilizing the private sector • Resource mobilization for climate action and closing the gap on resource needs • Mobilizing the private sector for renewable energies and innovations such as blue and green bonds The ACBP forward look will be refined and aligned with the fortcoming World Bank Group’s (WBG) Corporate Post-2020 climate actions and targets, which are structured around five themes: 1. Deepening Climate Mainstreaming and Increasing Direct Climate Financing 2. Increasing Leverage of Private Finance and Creating Markets for Climate Action 3. Systematically Investing in a Better Adapted World 4. Driving Larger Systemic Impact at the Country Level 5. Elevating Climate Actions in Key Sectors and Areas IV. Conclusion Overall, this ACBP Third Implementation Progress Report of 176 projects and $17 billion of bank financing demonstrates resource mobilization well ahead of 2020 targets. Yet climate change is a dangerously moving target, and as impacts accelerate, so must the countries’ core resilience capacities. The ACBP supports climate action across every sector, nationally and regionally, from climate smart agriculture in Niger to rural inclusion in Kenya’s growth. Mozambique’s newly protected areas complement improved value chains and West Africa’s coastal area adaptation could create new livelihoods for marginalized coastal communities, while access to renewable forms of energy enhance resilience of populations in multiple ways. So even as some of the ACBP goals have been met, the stakes are changing, and the ACBP is evolving to stay ahead of these risks. SSA countries are disproportionately impacted by climate change despite historically low contributions to global warming. The limited availability of climate finance, procedural complexities, increased demand for information, and severe capacity constraints require urgent attention if SSA countries are to receive the requisite financing. Private sector financing must be a key part of the solution. Education, along with health and nutrition, is the essence of human capital. (Madagascar) © Arne Hoel / World Bank 12 | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development ANNEX 1: Summary of ACBP Components’ Implementation Progress (FY16-18) and Introduction of New Components ACBP Component Progress FY16-18 Challenges and Lessons Learned STRENGTHENING RESILIENCE Natural Capital Climate-Smart The World Bank’s Board approved 57 projects supporting CSA Need for more transformational responses Agriculture (CSA) with cumulative commitments of $1.8 billion. These projects aim to support deep, systemic, scale up in CSA to improve the livelihoods of 6.6 million farmers and increase technologies and practices; leverage the the climate resilience and productivity of more than 2.9 million big data and geospatial capabilities of the hectares of land. Agricultural Intelligence Observatory (Ag Observatory) in targeting climate-smart CSA Investment Plans (CSIPs) were prepared for five countries, interventions; promote efforts to mainstream 10 CSA country profiles were completed; continued leadership on resilience into agriculture sector policies, knowledge and advocacy through multiple fora. incentives and investment; promote market system approaches and mobilize private sector resources for agricultural development; and assist client countries in improving food security risk management Climate-Resilient Good overall progress. Ethiopia Sustainable Landscape More financing is needed to support rural Landscapes Management Program targeting 807,300 hectares, and 8.8 communities, test innovative mechanisms (Drylands) million incremental carbon dioxides equivalent accumulated; more to crowd in private investment; targeted than 400,000 households involved. in Sudan, 100,000 hectares Technical Assistance, policies and technology of land are managed by sustainable landscape management uptake; and enhancing geographical reach. practices; and more than 15,000 hectares benefit from enhanced Diversification and increase of vegetation biodiversity protection. Intervention on institutional, policy, and cover to be implemented on 100 million information took place in: Ethiopia, Mozambique, Burundi, Ghana, hectares preventing degradation (by 2030). Cote d’Ivoire, Madagascar, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, DRC, and Uganda. Climate-Resilient Covers multiple country programs, harnessing a range of Leverage financing to deepen engagement Landscapes instruments and financing to advance the agenda: The Africa and sustain momentum: additional FCPF (Forests) Forest Landscapes Program has 17 active country programs endorsements for REDD+; implementation benefitting communities; funding includes BioCarbon, Forest of large-scale REDD+ performance-based Carbon Partnership Facility (FCPF), the REDD+ Readiness Fund, programs; signing of the first Emission the Carbon Fund, and the Forest Investment Program (FIP). About Reductions Payment Agreement (ERPA) need $101 million was committed from the FCPF to 15 countries. Over investment resources to be able to implement $30 million has been allocated from the Central African Forest their FIP plans; more proactive engagement Initiative (CAFI) to four countries; 10 countries are preparing large- from the private sector, particularly around scale programs for performance-based payments for REDD+ and commodities’ supply chains (e.g. cocoa), is enhanced carbon stocks. 11 countries are supported by the FIP. needed. The World Bank’s Forest Action Plan provides a guiding framework, and the Mid- Term review currently underway is evaluating the Bank’s overall progress (16-18) in sustainable forestry, forest-smart interventions (in non-forest sectors), climate resilience, rights and participation, and institutions and governance, including gender and biodiversity aspects. Integrated Beyond the focus on strategic river basins one needs to consider strategic planning to systematically frame Watershed climate-resilience-focused lending. Analytical work and decision support tools: Use of a variety of lending Management instruments for resilience programming: Niger CRIP – see below; Multi-phased Programmatic Approach; Development Policy Operations. Niger River Basin The Bank and nine country counterparts identified a priority set The Bank will finalize the preparation of of 123 interventions based on the Climate Resilience Investment Project 1 of the Building Climate Resilience Plan (CRIP) for the Niger at an estimated cost of $1.9 billion; in the Niger Basin Program and continue the finalizing preparation for two lending operations; supervising the preparation of the following projects of the implementation of the Sahel Irrigation Initiative project. Series of Projects (SOP). The AfDB PIDACC project’s preparation will be finalized; increase use of remote sensing to improve monitoring of the basin. Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | 13 ACBP Component Progress FY16-18 Challenges and Lessons Learned Lake Victoria LVEMP 2 was completed with multiple outcomes: protects The LVEMP3 is under preparation, with $225 Basin ecological infrastructure; 28,118 hectares of soil erosion-affected million IDA committed by five LVB countries. land under sustainable land management practices and 3,523 LVTP and the LVEMP are coordinating with of degraded wetlands restored or rehabilitated through over 630 and complementing each other to manage community-driven development (CDD) activities; over 12,000 climate and environmental risks to and from farmers have adopted soil and water conservation measures transport development and to support resilient under climate-smart agriculture practices; new public sanitation rural livelihood development through both facilities (serving around 150,000 people; major improvements sustainable natural resources management in wastewater management in seven towns; water navigation and improved market access. improved; a technical assistance on resource efficiency and cleaner production (RECP) resulted in $26 million of private sector investment; the first phase of the Lake Victoria Transport Program (LVTP) in Rwanda was approved in 2017; assessment of climate risks completed for the Mwanza region of Tanzania. Zambezi Basin Strategic Planning for a Common Investment Framework is at The Zambezi Basin is one of 4 priority river advanced stage; combined investments in the 8 riparian countries basins in Africa under the CIWA MDTF amount to more than $2 billion. The Diagnostic Phase and transboundary water program - an entry point Strategic Direction Reports are complete. Basin development to catalyze future financing opportunities in the scenarios are currently under preparation, to be followed by basin; engaging innovative technologies such benefit sharing assessments.; Data sharing and decision support as LiDAR and modelling that will help identify system now operational; Legislation & Policy Equivalence further areas for support. Analysis -harmonized options been proposed: options and recommendations will be considered in future support initiatives; Batoka Hydropower Development Investment: all studies are at an advanced stage and are being supplemented by additional analyses, taking into account climate variability and macro- economic viability. Climate-smart The Bank made 17.1 million in direct investments in the climate- Maritime Spatial Planning (MSP) is an area ocean economy smart ocean economy. Steady progress has been made against where client demand is growing quickly, and the target of $220 million (by 2020), increasing from 9 percent in where the World Bank could play an important FY 16 to 42 percent in 2017, and 71 percent in FY 18; through role by increasing TA and assisting in the direct investments and Program for Results operations in support identification of opportunities and carrying out of pilot fisheries and climate-resilient livelihood projects; mobilized investments. $500 million from Nordic Development Fund (NDF); SWIOFish1 (P132123), SWIOFish2 (P153370) and SWIOFish3 (P155642) operations continue to strengthen fisheries governance in Comoros, Mozambique, Tanzania, Madagascar, and Seychelles; First Blue Bond issued by the Government of Seychelles to support the transition to a Blue Economy; new ASA to improve fisheries governance and increase economic benefits and inputs to investment operations in COREP; Fisheries Transparency Initiative (FiTI) to help institutionalize transparency in the fisheries sector. 14 | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development ACBP Component Progress FY16-18 Challenges and Lessons Learned Physical Capital Climate-smart Efforts have moved beyond technical assistance toward dedicated Climate-Smart Cities is a crucial and large, cities financing in three areas: (a) capacity building; (b) resilient multi-sectoral business line: Policy changes infrastructure, buildings, and services; and (c) partnerships and to improve the form and functions of African city networking for knowledge sharing. The target of developing cities, shift to climate resilient buildings, resilience plans in 20 African cities by 2022 has been well infrastructure, services, efficient land-use surpassed, with local resilience planning and capacity building and planning and building regulations, and activities completed or underway in more than 100 cities. The enforcement capacity is key. There is a critical Bank has committed a total of $2.27 billion to support investment need to invest in upstream analysis through operations for climate- and disaster-resilient development in such transitions. urban areas across twelve countries. Seven of the investments directly target medium (Saint Louis, Freetown) and large (Accra, Antananarivo, Dakar, Dar Es Salaam, Ibadan) cities, while the remaining target several cities across their respective countries. In terms of partnerships and city networking for knowledge sharing, the Bank is a part of the Medellin Collaboration on urban resilience and has been working closely with international partners. Stronger capacity for integrated risk management is expected to benefit more than 100 cities and about 70 million people. Coastal The $225 million (including $190 million of IDA and $20.25 Recognizing the needs for financing—on resilience (West million of GEF) WACA Resilience Investment Project (ResIP) was the order of $2 billion, and building on a Africa) approved by the WB Board for six countries and four regional successful WACA Program Launch, where institutions. The program will address coastal erosion, flooding, thirteen governments adopted the WACA improved watershed management, and support pollution control. Communiqué —the WACA Platform will seek to attract existing and develop new financing A WACA Platform was launched to scale up the WACA program instruments; an engagement of the ICC with to the order of $2 billion. The Platform will mobilize knowledge other regions of Africa needs to be scaled up and expertise to customize technical solutions to development that are experiencing similar pressure in the challenges, establish a market place for countries to mobilize coastal zone. the financing and public-private partnerships in support of their multi-sector investment plans, and significantly raise the game by engaging highest level of decision-makers. The Platform is Bank-executed supported by a EUR 5 million grant from the Nordic Development Fund, and $1 million from the GFDRR. Once the platform is operating the function for knowledge, finance and dialogue would be transferred to one or more regional organizations. In the interest in scaling up further, a dialogue was initiated with the Interregional Coordination Center (ICC) in Yaoundé, Cameroon which supports implementation of the regional strategy on safety and security within the Central and West African common maritime space. Climate-smart Since 2016, a progressively larger share of newly approved To move from a reactive to a proactive transport transport projects embedding climate considerations to: (i) business model on climate-resilient and improve the resilience of African transport infrastructure to low-carbon transport in Africa, the Bank climate change; and (ii) improve the carbon-efficiency of transport will continue to emphasize transformative systems in Sub-Saharan Africa. Commitment of US$ 1.9 billion, of core technical work on resilience (logistics which 90 percent IDA funds, for fifteen climate informed projects and freight; urban mobility systems, data over that three-year period. The latest addition to the Bank and information for infrastructure design, portfolio consists of four climate informed transport projects and a priori planning for disaster response, represents the entirety of the Fiscal Year 2018 transport approvals capacity building) and decarbonization for Africa, with a combined IDA financing commitment of US$ 553 of transport systems (urban transit lines, million. efficiency of trucking fleet, strengthen enabling environment). Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | 15 ACBP Component Progress FY16-18 Challenges and Lessons Learned Human and Social Capital Social Protection A total of 33 projects at over $2 billion, were financed by IDA The role of safety net programs in responding and trust fund resources; this greatly exceeded the targets set to shocks is increasingly important. Funds out in the ACBP, reflecting a growing demand for these services. from the Crisis Response Window were Increasingly, this includes adaptive elements, including scaled- channeled through national safety net. up safety net programs, based on early warning information for Technical assistance to help governments the use of seasonal assessment and humanitarian appeals to identify and secure financing to scale up safety the creation of new triggers based on data from satellites. The nets is essential, as well as work is on macro- Bank is increasingly working together with humanitarian partners insurance (to be offered through the Africa to harmonize approaches and build systems. Public works Risk Capacity, contingency budgets, and programs funded in Ethiopia, Niger, Madagascar, and Tanzania are instruments, including Development Policy increasingly focusing on investments in landscape management Loans with CAT-DDOs and more traditional (e.g. soil conservation, watershed management, reforestation, humanitarian financing) and the design, testing rehabilitation of eroded lands) that have direct effects on climate and piloting of productive interventions that mitigation. promote livelihood diversification are emerging as important areas. Addressing Several large operations, with financing of more than a $300 Flows of forcibly displaced people continue to Drivers and million, were approved for Kenya, Uganda, the Great Lakes, increase in the Horn of Africa, the Great Lakes Impacts of and Regional (Development Response to Displacement Impacts Region, the Lake Chad region, the Sahel, and Migration Project - DRDIP in Ethiopia, Uganda, Djibouti) projects to address other countries on the continent; approach of the impacts of forced displacement and migration; Additional providing longer-term development solutions Financing of $8.18 million for Kenya DRDIP; $150 million for and transitioning from emergency assistance Uganda; and smaller targeted projects, including a $3 million is proving to have transformative impact. Grant to IGAD to set up the Regional Secretariat on Forced As Bank operations in this area continue to Displacement and Mixed Migration and target inclusive community grow, it will be important to monitor impacts resilience and gender-based violence (Somalia). Adaptation and share learning as it emerges. Need to measures were also implemented in Sao Tome and Principe. get ahead of the curve to advance mobility as an adaptation strategy, drawing on good practice. POWERING RESILIENCE Solar power On track to achieve short-term target of supporting 1GW of grid- Due to the falling cost of solar PV and connected solar by 2023. Approved lending for six grid-connected successful cases of solar auctions in solar projects in 5 countries and ECOWAS in the amount of SSA, there is increasing demand for $80 million. The total solar generation capacity through these the Bank to support grid-connected PV operations sums up to 650MW. The progress towards off-grid electricity expansion as a solution to reduce target to support 5 million consumers by 2023 is relatively slow dependency on fossil-fuel thermal electricity due to the nascence of the sub-sector in many SSA countries: generation. There are at least six grid- ten projects were approved for $500 million, and this is expected connected solar projects currently in the to provide off-grid electricity services to an estimated 1.4 million pipeline and a clear expansion of battery households. As the sub-sector matures, there is likely to be an storage tied to PV electricity generation. There increased investment in this space. World Bank/ESMAP has is also a strong momentum for scaling up off- launched a Global Solar Atlas to guide solar development in Africa grid electrification technologies, including solar and elsewhere. The Bank has also been leading Lighting Africa home systems and mini-grids. The Bank is and the Lighting Global programs, which support the scale-up of also preparing a regional project in West Africa solar home systems (case study below). to support private solar off-grid solutions in the region. Hydropower In this period, the Bank approved ten projects, which included Considering increasing development support for hydropower development at the total scale of 460MW. of Variable Renewable Energy (VRE), The largest project was the Nachtigal hydropower project in complementary services provided by Cameroon with a capacity of 420MW. The remaining 60MW are hydropower should be further analyzed and from small hydro projects at various stages of development. With enhanced in upcoming projects; Ancillary pipeline projects in Malawi and Sierra Leone totaling 448MW, the services and flexibility brought by hydropower Bank should be on track to meet the target of supporting 1GW by are crucial for the stability of energy systems – 2026. further support to the development of market and remuneration for ancillary services. Geothermal In 2016, the Bank approved $53.2 million to further support Other countries in East Africa are in the geothermal plants in Kenya (Olkaria I and IV, which totaled reconnaissance and early exploration phase; 280MW). This constitutes important progress towards the Bank’s support has focused on sharing the target of supporting 500 MW by 2026. In Ethiopia, geothermal risk of such upstream exploration. drilling at the Aluto Langano site has been delayed but is now progressing. The Bank is also supporting Ethiopia to develop its internal capacity for geothermal development through south-south knowledge sharing. Technical assistance work for geothermal development, such as surface exploration, is ongoing in Tanzania, Malawi, and Uganda. 16 | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development ACBP Component Progress FY16-18 Challenges and Lessons Learned ENABLING RESILIENCE Africa Hydromet Phase I of the Africa Hydromet program will benefit more than 100 Expanding the Program to cover contiguous Program million people in 15 Sub-Saharan African countries and 4 regional countries and their regional climate centers in organizations, by building the technical, human, and financial a programmatic modernization plan remains capacity to provide forecasts, warnings, and value-added climate the focus of efforts. Inadequate IDA support information services and products. and overdependence on lateral funding from Green Climate Fund, CREWS and Global FY16-18: By the end of FY18, the Bank’s active commitments Environment Facility funds are stalling the in the Africa Hydromet program stood at $230.1 million, a deployment of optimum resources to meet $33.5 million increase over the previous year with support from the demand from countries. The pipeline IDA, GCF, and CREWS. Investment and technical assistance includes ten countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, operations were being implemented in 19 countries. GFDRR but needs to be confirmed for IDA financing, grants to support coordination of the Africa Hydromet program which is a prerequisite for co-financing from partnership convened by the Bank have remained instrumental other sources including the Green Climate in organizing “deep-dive” meetings of program partners (World Fund. Bank, World Meteorological Organization, African Development Bank, United Nations Development Programme, French Development Agency, and World Food Programme). AFRI-RES FY16-18: AFRI-RES (Africa Climate Resilient) Facility is a Resource mobilization continues to be Facility partnership between the World Bank and UNECA (leveraging an important focus; development and the AUC) through a EUR5 million NDF grant, to support Africa's dissemination of concrete knowledge capacity to systematically integrate climate change considerations products within the Bank and in partnership into the planning and design of long-lived investments. Technical with UNECA; opportunities to harness Assistance, of $1 million provided to 14 projects under preparation greater synergies with PIDA (Program for covers 7 sectors: Agriculture, Energy, Environment, Urban, Infrastructure Development) and development Transport, Water, and Social Protection - provided resources to in cooperation with AUC. integrate climate resilience interventions into project design, and generate broad learning, knowledge exchange, and dissemination through the program. Three region-wide Africa Climate Resilient Infrastructure Summits have been held. The most recent (ACRIS III) which took place in Morocco in February 2018 attracted 250 participants and 10 high-level panels focused on resilience in the context of infrastructure, energy, agriculture, climate information, landscapes, technology, and other key areas, and provided for direct interactions between the public and private sector stakeholders to discuss climate-resilient opportunities in Africa. Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development | 17 ACBP Component Progress FY16-18 Challenges and Lessons Learned New ACBP Components Strategic FY16-18: All SCDs and CPFs completed in FY18 incorporate climate risks and vulnerabilities. To ensure continued Country strategic and systematic engagement for climate action, and enhance visibility and ownership, this new ACBP Engagement for component will seek to: NDCs • Integrate climate risks and NDCs in all SCDs and upstream analytics; (Enabling • Deepen integration of NDC priorities and climate action into all CPFs; Resilience) • Link project pipelines corresponding to needs and priorities in the CPF with NDC implementation; and • Engage in country NDC dialogue and mainstreaming of climate action based on country demand. Green Financial To support the (business) climate in the financial system through a set of priority activities that will seek to Systems, mainstream climate risks into policies and regulations, standards and frameworks governing the financial sector; Financial improve financial protection against climate-related risks and promote firm green competitiveness. Areas of focus: Protection Instruments, • Build a better understanding of the links between climate and related environmental factors with local financial and Green sectors in Africa through research, data collection, and dissemination workshops and conduct 5 climate risk Competitiveness assessments in financial sector by 2030; • Develop country programs and projects that promote and integrate green elements into banking, capital (Enabling markets, and pension funds - develop 4-country programs by 2030; Resilience) • Cover more countries with new or improved financial protection instruments, including insurance, risk pools, and contingent finance, e.g. African Disaster Risk Financing (including Cat-DDO), Global Index Insurance Facility - expanded protection coverage in 10 more countries with these instruments and tools; and • Increase green competitiveness and innovation through climate-related investments while protecting industries against climate impacts. By 2030, the objective is to develop 20 country programs that integrate green competitiveness into their growth strategies. Climate-Smart This is a new component with overarching outcomes to support: (i) adaptation to climate change through planning Health for and adapting to climate and disaster impacts and reducing the burden and impact of climate-sensitive diseases; and (ii) investing in low carbon Investments in low carbon healthcare, which is planned, built and delivered with minimal emission of greenhouse gases through: (Strengthening Resilience: • Strengthening regional, national, and local institutional capacity for climate change adaptation and enhance Human & Social climate change mitigation; Capital) • Strengthening the public health and environmental response to climate-sensitive diseases; and • Scaling-up investments to address climate change in the health sector and “Health in All Policies” approach in non-health sector. The proposed activities will benefit all IDA/IBRD countries with active operations, with a focus on the 21 countries with high health and habitat vulnerabilities in the short term (high priority countries), the 19 moderate countries with high health or habitat vulnerabilities in the medium term, and the remaining low-priority countries in the long- term. The HNP Africa Climate and Health strategy (2018-2030) builds on the analytical and operation experience (REDISSE, Rwanda cookstove) gained over the years to support SSA countries reduce the impact of climate change on all aspects of health, strengthen the climate resilience of their health systems, and contribute towards climate change mitigation. Climate-Smart This is a new ACBP component. The key outcomes sought include the following: Reduce climate change Education impact and support knowledge generation and capacity building in climate change by: (i) financing climate-smart infrastructure; (ii) integrating information on climate change issues and responses in basic education curriculum development and teacher training; and (ii) supporting skills acquisition in technical and vocational education and (Strengthening training and research at the tertiary level in relevant fields. Resilience: Human & Social FY18: the Africa Education Portfolio saw a five-fold increase in its commitments with direct climate co-benefits Capital) (from $1 million in FY17 to $5 million in FY18). Six projects were approved, supporting climate-smart education in the region. In the technical and vocational sub-sector, the Bank has supported the shift from traditional skills acquisition to more modern training that focuses on renewable energy, energy efficiency, and environmental preservation, and these skills are not only beneficial for building resilience but are deemed to be the drivers for economic growth in the target countries as they replace outdated markets. Harnessing Mobilizing disruptive technology to leap-frog into innovation is key for Africa as it counters climate challenges. The Satellite use of satellite data and other forms of technology (drone mapping) in building resilience to climate change and Technology climate variability is of keen interest due to the scarcity of quality data to assess the climate risks and potential for Innovation impacts. The objective is to enable a more systematic uptake and application of earth satellite technology at and Climate the project and client level to harness benefits of monitoring, access to systematic data sets, climate monitoring Resilience and forecasting, and other applications, integrated with (scarce) existing data sources. Specific action areas: (i) TA support to increase access to geospatial information and data, to support decision makers in challenges; (ii) (Enabling Partnership with key agencies (e.g. IFIs, national hydrological and meteorological agencies and innovators (e.g. Resilience) citizens, entrepreneurs) to derive high-level data products supporting the monitoring and management of climate change risk in countries; and (iii) Capacity building to raise awareness about climate resilience goals and learn about user requirements through training sessions. 18 | Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development The full progress report will be posted online before the end of 2018, and will be accessible by scanning the code below