2016/60 k nKonw A A weldegdeg e ol n oNtoet e s eSrei r e ise s f ofro r p r&a c t hteh e nEenregryg y Etx itcrea c t i v e s G l o b a l P r a c t i c e The bottom line Toward Climate-Resilient Hydropower in South Asia The Decision Tree offers a cost- effective, scientifically sound, replicable, and transparent Why study the impacts of climate change on of World Bank Sustainable Development Operations.” The work method for demonstrating the described here is part of that initiative. robustness of a development hydropower projects? Since its seventeenth replenishment in 2013, the International project in the face of the risks Planning for climate change is critical to protect— Development Association has required that all country partnership posed by climate change, and increase—returns on the significant investment frameworks include an analysis of climate and disaster risks. Once natural hazards, and other the country agrees to the framework, climate considerations must be being made in hydropower factors. The framework is most incorporated into the content of programs and results frameworks. effective when a wide range of More than 80 percent of South Asia’s hydropower potential remains All new IDA operations must be screened for short- and long-term risks must be considered, as is untapped, and the countries of the region are depending on its climate change and disaster risks and, where risks exist, must typically the case with high-value development as a source of affordable renewable energy. Yet climate integrate appropriate resilience measures. hydropower investments. In change threatens that development. Practical means of gauging the In light of the foregoing imperatives (and in response to internal order to gain maximum benefit possible effects of climate change on hydropower projects would suggestions ) the World Bank’s Energy and Extractives Global from the framework, it should improve the Bank’s investment decisions while also furthering its Practice, with support from the Asia Sustainable and Alternative be conducted at both project clients’ understanding of and resilience to climate change and cli- Energy Program (ASTAE) and the South Asia Water Initiative (SAWI, and basin scale, first to answer mate-related disasters through intelligent design and careful planning. a partnership between the World Bank and Governments of United, questions immediately relevant In December 2015, the United Nations Climate Change Kingdom, Australia and Norway), launched an effort in 2013 to better to investors and then to provide Conference (COP 21) in Paris placed high priority on building and understand the impacts of climate change on hydropower and to perspective on alternative strengthening the resilience of infrastructure projects. In response to take stock of various ways to measure and boost the resilience of investment portfolios that may this, the Office of the Chief Economist at the World Bank is launching relevant projects. yield greater returns. an initiative called “Enhancing Climate and Disaster Resilience The Practice began by analyzing several hydropower projects and observing how climate change had been addressed in the past. The team leader then formed a multidisciplinary team across global practices and initiated a Bank-wide consultation process. Pravin Karki is a senior hydropower engineer Haru Ohtsuka is an investment officer The Energy and Extractives team quickly discovered that Bank in the Energy and Extractives Global Practice at IFC. He is using the methodology units had various ways of screening for climate and disaster risk; and a member of the Global Solutions Group developed in this study to source $30 million there was no standard method for assessing the significance of on Hydropower and Dams. He leads work on in concessional financing for an IFC-led the resilience of hydropower at the Bank. hydropower project. climate risk or of forecasting climate conditions that might affect hydropower development. In an effort to fill this gap, Diego Rodriguez Laura Bonzanigo is a young professional in Sanjay Pahuja is a lead water and his team in the Bank’s Water Global Practice, supported by the the Climate Change Policy Office. She is an resources specialist in the Water Global expert in modeling “decision making under Practice and a member of the Complex Water Water Partnership Program, developed a conceptual framework uncertainty.” Systems group. known as the Decision Tree to guide project planners in applying 2 T o w a r d C l i m a t e - R e s i l i e n t H y d r o p o w e r i n S o u th A s i a the techniques of “decision making under Figure 1. The Decision Tree, an approach to decision making under uncertainty uncertainty” (DMU) to the assessment and management of climate change risk. Why are DMU and the “The Decision Tree helps Decision Tree useful? decision makers to assess They allow for the analysis of climate change threats variables that cannot be forecasted without first having DMU applies multidisciplinary tools and data to to predict the future, plan hydropower projects at the project, basin, understand the strengths or national scale so as to ensure strong physical and limitations of projects and economic performance. The logic of DMU under a wide range of techniques is straightforward: After identifying future conditions that might be problematic for conditions, and identify the design under consideration, one then evalu- adaptation strategies for ates to the extent possible the likelihood of their long-term success. occurrence and determines whether and how their effects can be mitigated. The techniques can be applied to uncertainties beyond climate change as well, such as those surrounding Source: Ray and Brown 2015. sediment loads, electricity prices, the prices of various types of fuel, the magnitude of co-bene- fits (such as environmental flow support or flood and limitations of projects under a wide range of conditions; and (iii) control), construction costs, and projected energy demand. identify adaptation strategies for long-term success. DMU facilitates the resolution of conflict surrounding hydropower In contrast to other project-level assessments, the Decision Tree development by providing (i) a transparent and accessible analysis focuses first on identifying a project’s vulnerabilities. If warranted, that invites the testing of multiple project designs and portfolios; climate projections are conducted in the final stages of analysis. (ii) rigorous treatment of stakeholder views on how the future Finally, the Decision Tree offers a systematic, step-by-step way for a will unfold (requiring stakeholder input to the development of the project manager to decide what level of analysis is appropriate to the analysis and continuing participation as new information arises); and project’s attributes. (iii) an opportunity to consider multiple metrics of performance that The Decision Tree consists of four phases (figure 1). A project facilitate discussion and agreement. leader moves through only as many phases as are appropriate to The Decision Tree, which is a framework for the staged appli- the project. The overall procedure includes a feedback loop that cation of DMU to managing risk in general and climate change in addresses monitoring and evaluation, both of which are essential in particular, helps decision makers to (i) assess climate change threats the midst of a changing climate. For more details on each phase, see without first having to predict the future; (ii) understand the strengths Ray and Brown (2015). 3 T o w a r d C l i m a t e - R e s i l i e n t H y d r o p o w e r i n S o u th A s i a Has the Decision Tree been applied? within the context of a complex physical system, laying the ground- work for future river basin and energy sector planning in Nepal It has been applied at the project and basin scale— (Harou and Hurford 2015). Sediment effects were also included in the but it can be applied even more broadly analysis. A technical note on sediment management and a software Rodriguez’s team saw an opportunity to apply the Decision Tree program called RESCON2 are being developed by Fichtner (Germany) “By applying the Decision approach to the proposed Upper Arun Hydropower Project (UAHP) in and will be released in early 2016. Tree to the Upper Arun eastern Nepal (an application on the project scale) and to the overall Applying the Decision Tree at the project scale. What hydropower portfolio in the Koshi Basin (an application on the basin risks might be faced by the UAHP, considering a prefeasibility design project and a closely scale). By applying the Decision Tree to the Upper Arun project and a of 335 megawatts (MW)? The team’s analysis considered climate aligned approach to the change and other factors identified in discussions with stakeholders. closely aligned approach to the Koshi basin, the usefulness of DMU Koshi basin, the usefulness approaches was ascertained. Such factors include performance metrics for project evaluation: of DMU approaches was In support of the applications, the team hired external modelers namely, the economic value of the project (net present value) and to conduct a project-level analysis of how climate change and other the total and dry season hydropower production. ascertained.” variables (such as the price of hydropower supply) might affect the Application of the Decision Tree to the UAHP demonstrated that project’s optimal design capacity (World Bank 2015; Ray and Brown the project is robust to climate change and other risks. This was 2015). A parallel study examined how glacial volume and the flow indicated by a stress test on a multistage ensemble of models that of water from glaciers and snow would be influenced by changes in included a weather generator, an advanced hydrologic model with a temperature and rainfall (Pahuja and others 2015). A complementary glacier component, and a water system model that translated water analysis of the Koshi Basin, where the UAHP is located (figure 2), availability into hydropower production. tested efficient and robust mixes of planned hydropower capacity The general hydrologic response of the Upper Arun River to changes in climate was as follows. The stream flow was projected Figure 2. Planned hydropower projects in the Koshi Basin to increase as temperatures warmed by about +3C, after which the examined in the basin-level study flow decreased moderately because of declining contributions from glacial melt. The stream flow during the low-flow season was found to decline slightly with warmer temperatures; however, the effect was small. The effects of a rise in temperature were far less signif- icant than those regularly expected from changes in precipitation. Projections for the region, of unknown credibility, indicate warmer Upper Tamakoshi temperatures and no clear signal regarding precipitation. Upper Arun The assessment also considered alternative (larger capacity) designs for the UAHP. The original prefeasibility design of 335 MW Dudh Koshi Arun 3 was found to be robust to the range of uncertainties considered; few Sun Koshi 3 scenarios posed significant problems. But the design was not able to exploit much of the increase in flows during the wet season. A design Legend Existing run-of-river hydropower capacity of 1,000 MW emerged as an attractive alternative, providing Planned run-of-river hydropower the best combination of robustness and efficiency, including during Planned peaking run-of-river hydropower the dry season; however, it was also more sensitive to increases in Planned storage hydropower Urban demand abstraction Out capital costs and electricity prices. These issues need to be carefully Catchment inflow with rural demands deducted addressed if this design is to remain competitive. Source: Harou and Hurford 2015; World Bank 2015. 4 T o w a r d C l i m a t e - R e s i l i e n t H y d r o p o w e r i n S o u th A s i a The ranges of the input variables selected for this analysis generation, irrigation deliveries, and the reliability and resilience of exceed what is deemed plausible. This is to ensure that no vulnera- the public water supply and ecological flows. bilities are overlooked. Once vulnerabilities are identified, it can then In this DMU application the river-basin impact model was linked be decided whether the values of the variables causing them are to a multi-criteria search algorithm that filters possible combinations plausible or not. Thus, the initial ranges used do not influence the of investments and their operating modes to identify a small set “Basin-scale analyses that results of the analysis. To ensure that the initial ranges exceed any of the highest-performing portfolios (the most efficient and robust consider climate change plausible values, they were developed in consultation with the Nepal combinations of options), given a range of uncertainties, including Electricity Authority and relevant literature, and included a discount climate change. This high-performing group of proposed assets and are not required by World rate and cost estimates. The input variables for climate change the trade-offs between their benefits can be assessed visually and Bank policy, and not all (temperature and precipitation) were developed based on an analysis interactively. Stakeholder-preferred investment bundles are then basins need this type of of historical records and with the specified intention of going far stress-tested in detail to identify any vulnerabilities, including to analysis. However, when beyond the ranges covered by the climate change projections of the institutional and financial variables. Ultimately, this approach aims to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. help decision makers identify which investments can achieve robust basins have complex Not all hydropower projects need be subjected to the degree of outcomes and appropriately balance the system’s benefits. interdependencies analysis applied to the UAHP . According to current World Bank policy, Should every river basin be subjected to the analysis applied to and when the various as noted at the outset, projects must be subjected to an appropriate the Koshi Basin? Basin-scale analyses that consider climate change possible interventions are level of analysis to demonstrate that they are resilient to future are not required by World Bank policy, and not all basins need this climate change. The Upper Arun analysis went on to the later phases type of analysis. However, when basins have complex interdepen- contested, system-level of the Decision Tree, even after climate risks were shown in Phase dencies and when the various possible interventions are contested, trade-off analysis can such system-level trade-off analysis (Geressu and Harou 2015) can 2 to be low, only because the investors and stakeholders wanted help bring clarity and to know if a larger design size might capitalize on the opportunities help bring clarity and consensus. Most river-basin organizations consensus.” for hydropower generation presented by more favorable conditions conduct basin-system simulation to aid in operations and capital (climate and nonclimate). Other projects may not require such project planning (for example, in the development of water master extensive analysis, and in general the Decision Tree can be applied plans); the application of DMU methods is a natural extension build- flexibly to meet stakeholders’ needs. ing on existing tools. The sort of planning applied to the Koshi Basin Applying DMU approaches at the basin scale. Applying a promises to be particularly useful under the following conditions: DMU analysis to the entire Koshi River basin demonstrates how DMU • When substantial new investment involving multiple sites and approaches can be used to select efficient and robust combinations infrastructure options is being considered. (portfolios) of hydropower investments in complex interdependent • When water and water infrastructure are being used in many systems. Because the performance of hydropower assets depends ways (hydroelectric generation, municipal and agriculture supply, on factors such as river flows, water management rules, and flood control, and others), and when complex trade-offs between upstream and downstream water use, the basin-scale analysis aims these uses are either already apparent or could crop up (and be for integrated water resource management. A stakeholder-trusted challenging to manage). model is used to simulate the basin system over a 30-year period, • When decisions about new investments and how to make them given various options for infrastructure development and operating are sensitive to one or more uncertain factors, such as climate rules. The simulation tracks flows and storage throughout the change, future demand for electric power, and the price of basin over time, as well as various engineering, economic, and electricity or alternative forms of energy. environmental metrics that quantify salient aspects of the system’s performance. Examples of performance metrics include hydropower 5 T o w a r d C l i m a t e - R e s i l i e n t H y d r o p o w e r i n S o u th A s i a Because almost any part of a system can affect the performance included the identification of design changes needed to make the of many or all other parts, basin-scale analysis can reveal insights hydropower plant resilient to future climate change. A further PPCR that are surprising and would not emerge from simpler, independent coinvestment linked to the additional cost of adaptation measures is analyses with a smaller scope. being considered. By providing long-term financing and investing in local currency, “Climate-related impacts What next? blended finance investments such as the PPCR seek to mitigate the have caused significant financial risks of project developers—risks that are known to hinder Toward a programmatic approach to climate change the development of climate-resilient infrastructure for hydroelectric increases in the operational and hydropower projects in South Asia facilities. It is expected that these blended finance investments will complexity and costs of help establish a track record for the development of climate-resilient The use of DMU to screen operations for short- and long-term hydropower projects, but climate change and disaster risks at the project and basin level is hydropower capacities, sending a positive signal to investors and most private investors are part of the World Bank’s broader, systematic approach to climate financiers looking to enter the hydropower sector. By demonstrating change and hydropower projects in South Asia (figure 3). Our next the bankability of climate-resilient hydropower, these investments unwilling to pay for the step will be to develop detailed guidelines on building the resilience can catalyze significant further investment in the sector on a additional costs of climate commercial basis. of the sector. proofing, even though the By 2035, an additional 750 gigawatts (GW) of hydropower same analysis that makes capacity is expected to be added around the world, requiring over a project or set of projects $1.2 trillion in new investment in countries outside the industrialized more resilient also makes it countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Figure 3. Elements of a systematic approach to climate change Development. Many of the new facilities in question will be located and hydropower projects in South Asia more bankable. The answer in climate-vulnerable areas. Yet, even in the face of high demand, no lies in using blended product on the market adequately supports the “climate proofing” of Sectoral focus Water Hydropower Energy supply finance to ensure that new and existing hydropower facilities. Climate-related impacts have resiliency issues are given caused significant increases in the operational complexity and costs of hydropower projects, but most private investors are unwilling to the attention they deserve.” Multinational pay for the additional costs of climate proofing, even though the Future applications of same analysis that makes a project or set of projects more resilient decision making under uncertainty also makes it more bankable (by reducing risk). The answer lies in using so-called blended finance to ensure that Geographic scale National Glacier Sediment resiliency issues are given the attention they deserve. melting and management hydrology guidelines The methods applied to the Upper Arun case study have been replicated by Haru Ohtsuka, an investment officer at the Koshi Basin application of Subnational decision making under uncertainty International Finance Corporation (IFC), in a privately financed 218 MW hydropower project called Upper Trishuli A in Nepal. In that project, the Pilot Program for Climate Resilience (PPCR, a climate Upper Arun application Project investment fund) and the IFC (as an implementing entity for the of decision tree PPCR) committed to an initial equity investment that incorporated an assessment of climate change adaptation. The assessment Source: Neumann and Black 2015. 6 T o w a r d C l i m a t e - R e s i l i e n t H y d r o p o w e r i n S o u th A s i a References The study was led by Pravin Karki and a World Bank Group team consisting of Make further Geressu, R. T., and J. J. Harou. 2015. “Screening Multi-Reservoir Laura Bonzanigo, Haru Ohtsuka, Sanjay Pahuja, and Diego Rodriguez. Pravin Karki leads work on the resilience of hydropower at the World Bank. Laura connections System Designs via Efficient Tradeoffs: Informing Infrastructure Bonzanigo is an expert in modeling decision making under uncertainty. Haru Investment Decisions on the Blue Nile.” Environmental Research Ohtsuka is using the methodology developed in this study to source $30 Live Wire 2014/36. Letters 10(12). DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/10/12/125008. million in concessional financing for an IFC-led hydropower project. Sanjay “Supporting Hydropower Pahuja is a member of the Complex Water Systems group at the World Bank. Harou, J. J., and A. P. Hurford. 2015. “South Asia, Investment Decision in the Developing World: Making in Hydropower: Decision Tree Case Study of the An Overview of World Bank Research related to the Decision Tree and UAHP analysis was conducted Upper Arun Hydropower Project and Koshi Basin Hydropower Group Engagement,” by Casey Brown, Patrick Ray, Sungwook Wi, and Ethan Yin-Chen Yang of the Development in Nepal.” Unpublished consultants’ report. June. by William Rex, Julia Bucknall, University of Massachusetts, Amherst. Julien Harou and Anthony Hurford of IEG (Independent Evaluation Group). 2012. “Adapting to Climate the University of Manchester undertook the analysis of the Koshi Basin with Vivien Foster, Rikard Liden, Change: Assessing the World Bank Group Experience.” World the help of Laura Bonzanigo and using hydrological information from Luna and Kimberly Lyon. Bank, Washington, DC. http://ieg.worldbankgroup.org/Data/ Bharati and Pennan Chinnasamy (IWMI) and Patrick Ray (UMASS). George reports/cc3_full_eval_0.pdf. Annandale of Golder Associates and Gregory Morris of GLM Engineering pro- Live Wire 2015/38. Neumann, J., and M. Black. 2015. “Programmatic Approach to duced a guidance note on sediment management for dams and run-of-river “Integrating Variable Impacts of Climate Risks on Water, Hydropower and Dams: hydropower. James Neumann and Margaret Black of Industrial Economics, Renewable Energy into Inc., provided overall support and guidance. Special thanks are due to Rohit Power System Operations,” Synthesis Document.” Unpublished consultants’ report. June 29, Khanna and William Young for helping secure funding for the studies through by Thomas Nikolakakis and 2015 ASTAE and SAWI, respectively. Debabrata Chattopadhyay. Pahuja, S., D. Alford, U. Kamp, C. Pan, and E. Yin-Chen Yang. Forthcoming. “Glaciers and Stream Flow in the Arun Basin, The authors also thank Divas Basnet, Julia Bucknall, Rafaello Cervigni, Nathan Nepal.” Unpublished consultants’ report. Engle, Marianne Fay, Luis Garcia, Johan Grijsen, Rikard Liden, Peter Meier, Ray, P., and C. Brown. 2015. Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Jie Tang, Michael Toman, and David Viner. Additionally, the authors thank Water Resources Planning and Project Design: The Decision Tree the government of Nepal, especially the Nepal Electricity Authority, Luna Bharati and her team at the International Water Management Institute (IWMI), Framework. Washington, DC: World Bank. https://openknowl- Radhesh Pant and his team at the Investment Board Nepal, and the Nepalese edge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/22544 Ministry of Energy. World Bank. 2015. “South Asia Investment Decision Making in Hydropower: Decision Tree Case Study of the Upper Arun Hydropower Project and Koshi Basin Hydropower Development in Nepal.” World Bank Report AUS11077, World Bank, Washington, DC. June. 7 T o w a r d C l i m a t e - R e s i l i e n t H y d r o p o w e r i n S o u th A s i a Get Connected to Live Wire Live Wires are designed for easy reading on the screen and for downloading The Live Wire series of online knowledge notes is an initiative of the World Bank Group’s Energy and self-printing in color or “Live Wire is designed and Extractives Global Practice, reflecting the emphasis on knowledge management and solu- black and white. tions-oriented knowledge that is emerging from the ongoing change process within the Bank for practitioners inside Group. For World Bank employees: and outside the Bank. 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Once a year, the Energy and Extractives Global Practice takes stock of all notes that appeared, reviewing their quality and identifying priority areas to be covered in the following year’s pipeline. Please visit our Live Wire web page for updates: http://www.worldbank.org/energy/livewire e Pa c i f i c 2014/28 ainable energy for all in easT asia and Th 1 Tracking Progress Toward Providing susT TIVES GLOBAL PRACTICE A KNOWLEDGE NOTE SERIES FOR THE ENERGY & EXTRAC THE BOTTOM LINE Tracking Progress Toward Providing Sustainable Energy where does the region stand on the quest for sustainable for All in East Asia and the Pacific 2014/29 and cenTral asia energy for all? in 2010, eaP easTern euroPe sT ainable en ergy for all in databases—technical measures. This note is based on that frame- g su v i d i n had an electrification rate of Why is this important? ess Toward Pro work (World Bank 2014). SE4ALL will publish an updated version of 1 Tracking Progr 95 percent, and 52 percent of the population had access Tracking regional trends is critical to monitoring the GTF in 2015. to nonsolid fuel for cooking. the progress of the Sustainable Energy for All The primary indicators and data sources that the GTF uses to track progress toward the three SE4ALL goals are summarized below. consumption of renewable (SE4ALL) initiative C T I V E S G L O B A L P R A C T I C E ENERGY & EXTRA • Energy access. Access to modern energy services is measured T E S E R I E S F O R T H EIn declaring 2012 the “International Year of Sustainable Energy for energy decreased overall A KNO W L E D G E N Oand 2010, though by the percentage of the population with an electricity between 1990 All,” the UN General Assembly established three objectives to be connection and the percentage of the population with access Energy modern forms grew rapidly. d Providing Sustainable accomplished by 2030: to ensure universal access to modern energy energy intensity levels are high to nonsolid fuels.2 These data are collected using household Tracking Progress Towar services,1 to double the 2010 share of renewable energy in the global surveys and reported in the World Bank’s Global Electrification but declining rapidly. overall THE BOTTOM LINE energy mix, and to double the global rate of improvement in energy e and Central Asia trends are positive, but bold Database and the World Health Organization’s Household Energy for All in Eastern Europ efficiency relative to the period 1990–2010 (SE4ALL 2012). stand policy measures will be required where does the region setting Database. The SE4ALL objectives are global, with individual countries on that frame- on the quest for sustainable to sustain progress. is based share of renewable energy in the their own national targets databases— technical in a measures. way that is Thisconsistent with the overall of • Renewable energy. The note version energy for all? The region SE4ALL will publish an updated their ability energy mix is measured by the percentage of total final energy to Why is this important ? spirit of the work initiative. (World Bank Because2014). countries differ greatly in has near-universal access consumption that is derived from renewable energy resources. of trends is critical to monitoring to pursue thetheGTF in 2015. three objectives, some will make more rapid progress GTF uses to Data used to calculate this indicator are obtained from energy electricity, and 93 percent Tracking regional othersindicators primary will excel and data sources that elsewhere, depending on their the while the population has access le Energy for All in one areaThe goals are summarized below. balances published by the International Energy Agency and the the progress of the Sustainab respective track starting progress pointstowardand the three SE4ALL comparative advantages as well as on services is measured to nonsolid fuel for cooking. access. Accessthat they modern to are able to energy marshal. United Nations. despite relatively abundant (SE4ALL) initiative the resources and support Energy with an electricity connection Elisa Portale is an l Year of Sustainable Energy for To sustain percentage of by the momentum forthe the population achievement of the SE4ALL 2• Energy efficiency. The rate of improvement of energy efficiency hydropower, the share In declaring 2012 the “Internationa energy economist in with access to nonsolid fuels. three global objectives objectives, andathe means of charting percentage of the population global progress to 2030 is needed. is approximated by the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of renewables in energy All,” the UN General Assembly established the Energy Sector surveys and reported access to modern universalAssistance The World TheseBank and data are the collected International using household Energy Agency led a consor- of energy intensity, where energy intensity is the ratio of total consumption has remained to be accomplished by 2030: to ensure Management Database and the World of theenergy intium of 15 renewable international in the World Bank’s Global agencies toElectrification establish the SE4ALL Global primary energy consumption to gross domestic product (GDP) energy the 2010 share of Program (ESMAP) relatively low. very high energy services, to double Database. measured in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms. Data used to 1 t ’s Household provides Energy a system for regular World Bank’s Energy the global rate of improvemen and Extractives Tracking Framework Health (GTF), which Organization in the energy intensity levels have come and to double the global energy mix, Global Practice. (SE4ALL 2012). based on energy. of renewable The sharepractical, rigorous—yet energy given available calculate energy intensity are obtained from energy balances to the period 1990–2010 global reporting, Renewable down rapidly. The big questions in energy efficiency relative setting by the percentage of total final energy consumption published by the International Energy Agency and the United evolve Joeri withde Wit is an countries individual mix is measured Data used to are how renewables will The SE4ALL objectives are global, economist in with the overall from renewable energy when every resources. person on the planet has access Nations. picks up a way energy that is consistent 1 The universal derived that isaccess goal will be achieved balances published when energy demand in from energy their own national targets through electricity, clean cooking fuels, clean heating fuels, rates the Bank’s Energy and countries differ greatly in their ability calculate this indicator are obtained to modern energy services provided productive use and community services. The term “modern solutions” cookingNations. again and whether recent spirit of the initiative. Because Extractives Global rapid progress and energy for Energy Agency and the United liquefied petroleum gas), 2 Solid fuels are defined to include both traditional biomass (wood, charcoal, agricultural will make more by the refers to solutions International that involve electricity or gaseous fuels (including is pellets and briquettes), and of decline in energy intensity some t of those of efficiency energy and forest residues, dung, and so on), processed biomass (such as to pursue the three objectives, Practice. depending on their or solid/liquid fuels paired with Energy efficiency. The rate stoves exhibiting of overall improvemen emissions rates at or near other solid fuels (such as coal and lignite). will excel elsewhere, rate (CAGR) of energy will continue. in one area while others liquefied petroleum gas (www.sustainableenergyforall.org). annual growth as well as on approximated by the compound and comparative advantages is the ratio of total primary energy respective starting points marshal. where energy intensity that they are able to intensity, measured in purchas- the resources and support domestic product (GDP) for the achievement of the SE4ALL consumption to gross calculate energy intensity Elisa Portale is an To sustain momentum terms. Data used to charting global progress to 2030 is needed. ing power parity (PPP) the International energy economist in objectives, a means of balances published by the Energy Sector International Energy Agency led a consor- are obtained from energy The World Bank and the SE4ALL Global Energy Agency and the United Nations. Management Assistance agencies to establish the the GTF to provide a regional and tium of 15 international for regular This note uses data from Program (ESMAP) of the which provides a system for Eastern Tracking Framework (GTF), the three pillars of SE4ALL World Bank’s Energy and Extractives on rigorous—yet practical, given available country perspective on Global Practice. global reporting, based has access Joeri de Wit is an will be achieved when every person on the planet The universal access goal heating fuels, clean cooking fuels, clean energy economist in 1 agricultural provided through electricity, biomass (wood, charcoal, to modern energy services The term “modern cooking solutions” to include both traditional and briquettes), and Solid fuels are defined the Bank’s Energy and use and community services. biomass (such as pellets 2 and energy for productive petroleum gas), and so on), processed fuels (including liquefied and forest residues, dung, involve electricity or gaseous at or near those of Extractives Global refers to solutions that overall emissions rates other solid fuels (such as coal and lignite). with stoves exhibiting Practice. or solid/liquid fuels paired (www.sustainableenergyforall.org). liquefied petroleum gas 8 T o w a r d C l i m a t e - R e s i l i e n t H y d r o p o w e r i n S o u th A s i a Contribute to If you can’t spare the time to contribute to Live Wire, but have an idea for a topic, or case we should cover, let us know! 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By communicating directly • A professional graphic designer assures that the final product looks great—a feather in your cap! with the team (contact Morgan Bazilian, mbazilian@ Live Wire aims to raise the profile of operational staff wherever they are based; those with worldbank.org) hands-on knowledge to share. That’s your payoff! It’s a chance to model good “knowledge citizenship” and participate in the ongoing change process at the Bank, uroPe and cenT ral asia 2014/29 all in easTern e ble energy for v i d i n g s u s Ta i n a where knowledge management is becoming everybody’s business. ess Toward Pro 1 Tracking Progr TICE IVES GLOBAL PRAC ENERGY & EXTRACT E SERIES FOR THE A KNOWLEDGE NOT rgy Providing Sustainable Ene Tracking Progress Toward Or 2014/5 1 U n d e r s ta n d i n g C O 2 emissiOns frOm the glObal energy seCt THE BOTTOM LINE and Central Asia for All in Eastern Europe stand where does the region on the quest for sustaina ble based on that frame- measures. This note is databases—technical updated version of energy for all? The region SE4ALL will publish an has near-universal access to WhyD is this important? ERGY PRA CTICE work (World Bank 2014). of A K N O W L E G E N O T E S E R I E S F O R T H E E N to monitoring the GTF in 2015. 93 percent l trends is critical that the GTF uses to electricit y, and Tracking regiona for All The primary indicators and data sources the population has access able Energy are summarized below. the progress of the Sustain the three SE4ALL goals track progress toward Understanding CO Emissions from the Global Energy Sector nonsolid fuel for cooking. is measured to modern energy services THE BOTTOM LINE to Your Name Here t (SE4ALL) initiativ e Energy access. Access connection despite relatively abundan 2 population with an electricity ional Year of Sustainab le Energy for by the percentage of the fuels.2 hydropower, the share the energy sector contributes In declaring 2012 the “Internat s ge of the populatio n with access to nonsolid objective and the percenta of renewables in energy established three global and reported about 40 percent of global All,” the UN General Assembly to modern are collected using household surveys Why is this issue important? 2030: to ensure universal access These data and the World Become an author has remained emissions of CO2. three- consumption to be accomplished by of renewab le energy in in the World Bank’s Global Electrification Database high energy double the 2010 knowledge share of the quarters of those emissionsrelatively low. very Mitigating climate change energy requires services, to 1 ld Energy Database. rate of improvement Organization’s Househo CO2 intensity levels have come and to double the global Figure 1. CO2 emissions Health Figure 2. energy-related The share of renewable energy in the energy come from six major the global energy mix, sources of CO question s2 emissions to the period 1990–201 0 (SE4ALL 2012). by sector Renewab le energy. emissions by country consumption down rapidly. The big economies. although coal-fired in energy efficiency relative countries setting percenta ge of total final energy mix is measured by the of Live Wire and global, with individual LICs evolve les will opportunities to cut emissions of greenhouse aregases used to plants account for just are how renewab Identifying The SE4ALL objectives le energy resources. Data 0.5% demand picks a clear up understanding of the main sources of those in a wayemis- that is consistent with the overall that is derived from renewab energy balances published 40 percent of world energy when energy requires their own national targets ability are obtained from rates more than 80 percent of differ greatly in their Residential Other calculate this indicator and whether sions. recent Carbon dioxide (CO ) accounts for initiative. Because countries 6% sectors Other MICs and the United Nations. production, they were again 2 spirit of the 1 Agency will make more rapid progress by the International Energy China 10% 15% intensity gas emissions globally, primarily from the burning s, some efficiency is contribute to your responsible for more than of decline in energy total greenhouse to pursue the three objective on their Other HICs . The rate of improvement of energy energy sector—defined toexcel elsewhere, depending include Energy efficiency 30% growth rate (CAGR) of energy will continue. of fossil fuels (IFCC 2007). The will 8% in one area while others by the compound annual Energy 70 percent of energy-sector as well as on 41% approxim and heat generation—contributed and compara 41tive advantages ated Japan 4% energy the ratio of total primary Industry emissions in 2010. despite fuels consumed for electricity respective starting points 20% Russia energy intensity is that they are able to marshal. in 2010 (figure 1). Energy-related intensity, where USA product (GDP) measured in purchas- improvements in some percent of global CO2 emissions the resources and support 7% domestic practice and career! such of achievem ent of the SE4ALL Other consump tion to gross calculate energy intensity bulk 19% is an at the point of combustion make up the for the India countries, the global CO2 Elisa 2 emissions COPortale To sustain momentum to 2030 transport Road is needed. power parity 7% (PPP) EU terms. Data used to andinare generated by the burning of fossil global progress fuels, industrial 6% transport ing the International economist objectives, a means of charting balances published by emissions 11% emission factor for energy energy 16% EnergyandSector nonrenewable municipal waste to generate nal Energy Agency led electricity Internatio a consor- are obtained from energy The World Bank and the the waste, generation has hardly changed United Nations. ent Assistance venting and leakage to establish the emissions SE4ALL Global Energy Agency and the sector at the point and over the last 20 years. and heat. Black carbon and methane Managem tium of 15 international agencies Notes: Energy-related CO2 emissions are CO2 emissions from the energy from the GTF to provide a regional of the for regular This note usesanddata domestic presented in this note. which provides a system bunkers, Program (ESMAP) of combustion. Other Transport includes international marine aviation for Eastern are not included in the analysis Tracking Framework (GTF), Other Sectors on the include three pillars of SE4ALL commercial/public Extractives given available rail and pipeline transport; perspect ive World Bank’s Energy and aviation and navigation, on rigorous— yet practical, country electricity and heat genera- global reporting, based services, agriculture/forestry, fishing, energy industries other than Global Practice. tion, and other emissions not specified elsewhere; Energy = fuels consumed for electricity and Where do emissions come from? has access paragraph. HIC, MIC, and LIC refer to high-, middle-, Joeri de Wit is an will be achieved when as defined in the opening on the planet heat generation, every person The universal access goal of countries heating fuels, energy economistare Emissions in concentrated 1 in a handful to modern energy services provided through electricity, and low-income clean cooking fuels, clean countries. cooking solutions” to include both traditional biomass (wood, charcoal, agricultural The term “modern Source: IEA 2012a. Solid fuels are defined and briquettes), and the Bank’s Energy and use and community services. biomass (such as pellets 2 and come primarily from burning and energy coal for productive involve electricity or gaseous fuels (including liquefied petroleum gas), and forest residues, dung, and so on), processed Vivien Foster is sector Extractives Global refers to solutions that at or near those of and lignite). overall emissions rates exhibiting solid fuels (such as coal other fuels paired with stoves manager for the Sus- The geographical pattern of energy-related CO Practice. or solid/liquid emissions closely (www.sustainableenergy forall.org). gas 2 liquefied petroleum middle-income countries, and only 0.5 percent by all low-income tainable Energy Depart- mirrors the distribution of energy consumption (figure 2). In 2010, ment at the World Bank countries put together. almost half of all such emissions were associated with the two (vfoster@worldbank.org). Coal is, by far, the largest source of energy-related CO2 emissions largest global energy consumers, and more than three-quarters globally, accounting for more than 70 percent of the total (figure 3). Daron Bedrosyan were associated with the top six emitting countries. Of the remaining works for London This reflects both the widespread use of coal to generate electrical energy-related CO2 emissions, about 8 percent were contributed Economics in Toronto. power, as well as the exceptionally high CO2 intensity of coal-fired by other high-income countries, another 15 percent by other Previously, he was an power (figure 4). Per unit of energy produced, coal emits significantly energy analyst with the more CO emissions than oil and more than twice as much as natural 2 World Bank’s Energy Practice. Gas Inventory 1 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Greenhouse 0.php gas. Data—Comparisons By Gas (database). http://unfccc.int/ghg_data/items/380